118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 18
167 C MAREX 23
285 C NANHUA USA-HK 29
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 326
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 7
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 57
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 217
709 C BARCLAYS 10
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 15
905 C ADM 4
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 353 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 35,300 OZ or 1.078 TONNES
total notices so far: 26,968 contracts for 2,696,800 OR 83.881 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES:29 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 145,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1716 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.580 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 21.845 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 150,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 8.65000 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 1.7604 TONNES + 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 AND AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND NOW TODAY’S AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.730 TONNES OF GOLD + 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.413 TONES EX FOR RISK AUG 11+ 2.637 TONNES AUG 12 = 99.223 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 80.447 TONNES QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2082 CONTRACTS OI TO 154,473 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 200 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 370 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2082 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1882 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.56 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.410 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.56 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.37 PTS OR 0.60%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.87 PTS OR 0.25%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 897.69 PTS OR 2.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1907 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1962/ Oil UP TO 63.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1907 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1962 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 15,133 CONTRACTS TO 452,687 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $53.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST SOME NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2430 ). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 12,661 CONTRACTS (OR 39.88 TONNES)
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY:
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST;
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AUGUST 7 THE CME ANNOUNCED MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR AUGUST OF A MONSTER 1750 CONTRACTS FOR 175,000 OZ OR (5.4432 TONNES OF GOLD, THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD!!. WITH ALL THE CHAOS AT THE COMEX IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AUG 10 TOTALLING 776 CONTRACTS OR 77,600 OZ (2.418 TONNES).MUCH TO MY ANGER TONIGHT, THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 848 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 84,800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES.
THUS THE TOTAL FOR AUGUST IS 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400OZ OR 10.4932 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS. THE RECEPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY NOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND AS WE HAVE JUST LEARNED THAT THE FRBNY HAS RETURNED ONLY 14,000 OZ AS THEIR LOANS TO THE BIS REMAIN AT 34+ TONNES.(JULY 31 FIGURES) IT SEEMS NOW THAT THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS IN QUITE A HURRY TO GET ITS GOLD BACK!!
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 3 ISSUANCES FOR A MONSTER 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400 OZ ( 10.4932 TONNES)
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,661 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A 1,688 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE AT MONTH END WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED TWO WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS A QUEUE JUMP OF 1.577 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 1.7604 TONNES +10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK (3 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 99.223 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 235 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NONE COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 1.7604 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE + SATURDAY’S HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN TODAY;S AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 99.223 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2430 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2430 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2630 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS WILL APPEAR ON THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1688 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S FIRST THREE ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.4932 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1.7604 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THURSDAY’S HUGE 5.4432 EXCHANGE FOR RISK, SATURDAY’S STRONG 776 CONTRACT ISSUANCE (77600 OZ) FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN TODAY AUGUST 12 FOR 2.637 TONNES TOTAL EX FOR RISK = 10.4932 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
88.730 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
EQUALS
99.223 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A $53.55/ /) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: THREE SO FAR, AUGUST 7 AT 3374 CONTRACTS FOR 337,400 OZ (10.4932 TONNES OF GOLD) WITH TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF 848 CONTRACTS FOR 84800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES. TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 10.4932 TONNES
THUS 88.730 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS) + 10.4932 TONNES = 99.223 TONNES.
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ANALYSIS AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 39.449 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE TO WHICH WE ADD THURSDAY’S RECORD BREAKING QUEUE JUMP OF 10.8775 TONNES OF GOLD ON TOP OF TODAY’S HUGE 1.7604 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.4932 TONNES FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 99.223 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $53.55
WE HAD A HUGE22 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,683 CONTRACTS OR 1,268,300 0Z (39.449 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 262,930 contracts// good
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
AUGUST11 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entry . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 353 notice(s) 35,300 OZ 1.078 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1559 contracts 155,900 OZ 4.849TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 26,968 notices 2,696,800 oz 83.881 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits:
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entry
adjustments: 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 1912 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 3420 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 3986 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 566 CONTRACTS OR 56,600 OZ OF GOLD (1.7604 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AND THEIR APPETITE FOR THIS GOLD IS UNABATED!
SEPT LOST 453 CONTRACTS TO 5684
OCTOBER LOST 1287 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 63,954
We had 353 contracts filed for today representing 35,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 353 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 217 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (26,968 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 1912 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (353 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,852,700 OZ OR 88.730TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE ISSUANCES OF 10.4932 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/AUG 7 , 11 AND 12TH = 99.223 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (26,968 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (1912 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (353 x 100 oz) which equals 2,852,700 OZ OR 88.730 TONNES + 10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 99.223 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 10.4932 TONNES WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,010,548.158 oz 62.536 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,584,987.719 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,407,166.414 or 665.759 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,177,821.305 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,396,618 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 603.331tonnes // ( a bid drop of 10 tonnes
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE AUGUST 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
AUGUST 11 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Out of Delaware: 923.50 oz total withdrawal 923.500 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 601,018.700 oz total deposit 601,018.700 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 29 CONTRACT(S) (145,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 contracts (0.070 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1716 Contracts (8.580 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 deposit into dealer accounts
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 601,018.700 oz
total deposit 601,018.700 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 ENTRY
i) Out of Delaware: 923.50 oz
total withdrawal 923.500 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.400 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 507.041 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 43 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 7 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 37 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 30 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 150,000 OZ WILL STAND AS THEY ENTERTAINED A HUGE QUEUE JUMP
SEPTEMBER LOST 8855 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 82,046 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 13 CONTRACTS TO 537
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 or 145,,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 108.159 HUGE//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1716 X5,000 oz = 8.580 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (43) AND the number of notices served upon today (29 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (1716) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(43) minus number of notices served upon today (29)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 8.650 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 8.6500 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.400 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/507.041 million. 41.47%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 964.22 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.145 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
The death of fiat
The end of the 54-year fiat currency era is imminent — that is gold’s message. Increasing credit risk means higher interest rates, which will burst credit bubbles.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 12∙Paid |
The yield on the long bond is ready to break out on the upside over 5%, giving a technical target above 9%. Implications for all financial markets are dire.
Introduction
That central banks are ditching dollars for gold and have been for at least the last four years is an important message for us all. Geopolitics and even US politics are involved: but the fact that this widespread rebalancing of reserves is taking place is the clearest indication that the ultimate insiders to the currency game know that the dollar’s gig is nearly up.
Critics of the 54-year old anti-gold propaganda spreading out of the US and being repeated ad nauseum by its Keynesian epigones in the G7 are no longer dismissed as conspiracy theorists. Increasingly, the middle classes in these nations see the threat from rapacious governments taking their earnings and savings. And these defenceless victims of social democracy are only just beginning to understand that there is an additional theft of their wealth through the debasement of their currencies.
Initially, their wake-up call came from the bitcoin concept. The legal relationship between corporeal gold and incorporeal credit remains a mystery to them — but not to the insiders at central banks.
Reasoned economic and monetary theories, confirmed by historical evidence, tell us that currencies must return to gold standards to secure their values, circulating as trusted gold substitutes. Only then, can general economic progress resume. Getting there is going to be extremely difficult but is not the focus of this article. Instead, we must all focus on how to protect our personal wealth from the death throes of the dollar-based fiat currency system.
The debt-cum-credit bubble
One of today’s most common errors is to believe that the cost of debt is always controlled by central banks. When debt is not excessive, a central bank can manipulate interest rates and bond yields to some extent. But when debt is excessive and rising exponentially, it is creditors who have the final say.
These are the conditions emerging today. The authorities won’t admit it, but the US economy is sliding into recession, which with its government debt to GDP ratio at about 120% means that buyers of accelerating dollar debt issuance will see increasing risk of a debt trap. Bond yields will reflect that risk, and will rise accordingly.
Ever-higher bond yields are the consequence of a debt trap, which deters all buying of bonds. As yields rise and commercial banks attempt to avoid lending risk, the Fed will end up underwriting the entire credit system. Inevitably, the dollar’s purchasing power will be further undermined as currency and reserves flood the system, requiring yet higher interest compensation for holders of both short and long-term debt.
It is the engine that drives hyperinflation.
This outcome is supported by experience. In the UK, a sterling crisis in 1975 ended with the IMF being sent in to impose fiscal and spending discipline on the government of the day. In those times, gilt funding required coupons of over 15% and consumer price inflation hit 25%.
This external discipline is not available to the US, so it will be imposed by markets. There is no foreseeable limit on how low the dollar can go and how high bond yields and interest rates will rise. Already, the US Treasury is resorting to short-term finance because of poor demand for long-dated bonds at current yields.
Essentially, the US Treasury relies increasingly on pay-day loans on a national scale, as the Fed holds short-term rates above those of the yen and euro. But we know what eventually happens to the rates on pay-day loans. And as the mighty US Treasury loses credibility, rates rocket or the dollar sinks — most likely both. That is what gold is telling us: it’s not that gold is rising, but the dollar is sinking. And since all fiat currencies operate on a loose dollar standard, they are going down with the dollar as well.
However, the dollar is even declining against other fiat currencies, reflected in its trade-weighted index which has lost 10.6% since mid-January:
The US government with its dollar are not the only highly indebted government and fiat combination. Other G7 economies are also struggling, declining even when their budget deficits are subtracted from GDP. Debt and matching credit bubbles are evident everywhere, from Japan to France, from Spain to the UK.
Most investors are myopic about the role of credit. But for every debt there is a credit, and increasingly that credit has fed into stocks. Margin finance is now over $1 trillion, and rising steeply:
However, toward the end of an equity bull market, bond yields begin to rise. This stretches valuation differences to the point where eventually the equity bubble bursts. Today, the valuation difference is already the highest on record, illustrated in the next chart:
By way of explanation, the chart has been constructed to show the close negative correlation between the long bond yield and the S&P Index over time by inverting the long bond yield and indexing both metrics to 100 in January 1985.
The principal aberrations in this correlation were the dot-com bubble, the Lehman crisis when bond yields and equities both fell, covid when the long bond yield was suppressed to one per cent, and today when the long bond yield has risen to 4.9% while the S&P continues to rise.
The correlation always reverts to its mean for obvious reasons. But relative to the long bond, equities are the most overvalued for forty years, and probably for all time.
Clearly, this is an extremely dangerous situation. Even without the long bond yield rising further, the correlation returning to its mean would see the S&P losing 75% to test the previous 2000 and 2007 highs. But bond yields are certain to rise from current levels. When, not if, the 30-year UST bond rises through 5% it will crash the equity market.
Meanwhile, credit continues to fuel asset values. M2 money supply has expanded by about $500 billion over the last two years, matching the increase in margin debt in the penultimate chart above. But riding the equity bubble is like living in the shadow of a volcano: all is fine and dandy until suddenly without warning it isn’t.
Other than equities and bonds, activities whose very existence will be challenged when the bubble pops include:
· Cryptocurrencies, which have no standing as legal tender and whose performance correlates closely with the more speculative technology stocks in NASDAQ, and which will just as surely be doomed by the credit bubble bursting.
· Without secure and trusted payments, the collapse in economic activity will almost certainly be far greater than that of the 1930s slump, creating additional problems for all credit.
· Financial collateral will be sold to cover loans or become worthless in bankruptcy.
· Debt finance availability will collapse, and over-indebted businesses will fail to refinance at rates they can afford. Even conservatively leveraged commercial operations will be threatened by higher bond yields and the absence of available bank credit to supplement cash flows.
· Residential property prices depend on mortgage finance, so will decline. Excess capacity in commercial real estate is already being revealed with much more to come.
· Key commodity derivatives are already facing physical liquidity constraints. The risk inherent in all OTC derivatives due to the risk of counterparty failure will outweigh their use for risk protection.
· Global trade will contract sharply, initially because of tariff disruption and then because settlement in failing fiat is undesired. Bartering goods one for another will become common.
This list is of just some examples of where the dangers to our wealth lie and is far from exhaustive. But there is only one solution for those seeking to protect their wealth and their families: get out of credit as much as you can and into real corporeal money without counterparty risk. And that is only gold, with silver as a subsidiary metal.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
The gold swaps by the Frbny remains at 34 tonnes of gold having fallen slightly by only 14,000 oz
Not happy with this!!
(zerohedge)
BIS gold swaps held steady at 34 tonnes in July, GATA’s Robert Lambourne reports
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-08-11 20:50 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:55p ET Monday, August 12, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold swaps undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks and often their broker in the gold market, fell slightly in July, by about 14,000 ounces, but, rounded off, remained at June’s 34-tonne mark, according to GATA consultant Robert Lambourne.
The information can be calculated from the bank’s monthly statement of account for July, published today:
The report implies that the bank was not recruited to intervene much in the gold market in June on behalf of its member central banks and that there continues to be little interest among them in incurring more gold liabilities or in letting their metal get far from home.
The report written by Lambourne on July 1 —
— provides some history on the swap transactions and their volatility since the bank in 2010 made it possible for its gold swaps to be calculated.
As recently as January 2022 the bank’s swaps exceeded 500 tonnes but they have fallen sharply since, indicating a change of policy toward or outlook on gold, a trend that seems to have correlated with increasing central bank acquisitions and repatriations, along with gold’s rising price.
Nevertheless, the BIS has a well-placed confidence that no mainstream financial news organization will ever ask it to explain the purposes of the swaps and to identify the parties to them, lest gold cease being the immensely powerful secret knowledge of the financial universe.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 235
5. COMMODITY REPORT..LITHIUM
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.37 PTS OR 0.60%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.87 PTS OR 0.25%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 897.69 PTS OR 2.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1907 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1962/ Oil UP TO 63.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1907 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1962 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1907 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1962
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 62.87 PTS OR 0.25%
2. Nikkei closed UP 897.69 PTS OR 2.15%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.35/ EURO FALLS TO 1.1615 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.506//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.43…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6988/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.515 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.262%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.368
3j Gold at $3349.90 Silver at: 37.80 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 32 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.82
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.43// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.507% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8099 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9407 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.285 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.848 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.770 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.71
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5650 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.396 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.937 UP 1 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 08:22 AM
US equity futures are flat into today’s CPI print, which is expects to show a modest increase in YoY prints (full preview here) with bond yields reversing an earlier drop. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures were down 0.1%, with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading: NVDA is lower as China asks firms to not use the H20 chips; Intel gains after its CEO met Trump last night with Trump posting positive comments after the meeting. European stocks erase early gains of as much as 0.4%. The dollar gains for the second day while US Treasuries trade flat, with the yield on 10-year notes at 4.29%. Commodities are higher led by Metals; gold is flat at $3350 as is bitcoin which trades just under $119K. Trump announced he would nominate labor stats critic EJ Antoni for head of BLS. US economic data slate focuses on the CPI print at 8:30am; we also get the July federal budget balance at 2pm.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.1%, Amazon -0.05%, Meta +0.02%, Alphabet -0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Apple -0.5%). Nvidia dipped after China urged local firms to avoid the chipmaker’s H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes. The move will complicate Nvidia’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China revenue, as well as the Trump administration’s push to turn those sales into a US government windfall. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Cannabis producers are up and on course to extend Monday’s rally, after President Donald Trump said he was considering reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug. Tilray Brands (TLRY) +18%, Canopy Growth (CGC) +8%
- Archer Aviation (ACHR) shares drop 9% after the flying taxi company a 2Q adjusted Ebitda loss that’s wider that expected.
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) gains 12% after the satellite firm set out an ambitious plan to launch 45 to 60 satellites during 2025 and 2026. The firm also said it received two additional early-stage contracts for the US government.
- Cardinal Health (CAH) falls 5% after posting 4Q results and agreeing to buy Solaris Health from Lee Equity Partners and Solaris Health physician owners.
- Celanese (CE) drops 15% after the chemical manufacturer provided a disappointing 3Q profit forecast as management expects a softening demand across most key end-markets in the second half of the year.
- Hanesbrands (HBI) soars 41% after the Financial Times reported that Canada’s Gildan Activewear is nearing a deal to acquire the US underwear maker at an enterprise value approaching $5b.
- Intel (INTC) is up 2% after President Trump said his meeting with CEO Lip-Bu Tan “was a very interesting one.”
- Liquidia (LQDA) jumps 9% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the second quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
- On Holding (ONON) gains 10% after the Swiss sportswear firm raised its FY sales outlook. The firm also reported estimate-beating results, seeing strong demand in all regions.
- PubMatic (PUBM) slides 29% after the ad-tech company forecast current-quarter revenue well below analyst estimates, with demand disrupted by a recent platform migration at a major demand-side platform client.
- Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) climbs 4% after Jared Isaacman, its founder and executive chairman, bought $16.3 million of shares.
Today’s inflation report (full preview here) arrives after traders in recent weeks ramped up bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, anticipating that officials will act to bolster a labor market showing signs of softening. Absent a shockingly hot number, the Fed is expected to cut rates next month. Still, investors will remain cautious to the risk of persistent price pressures and the potential for a stagflationary backdrop. Traders have priced in more than two rate cuts by December, with about an 80% probability of a quarter-point reduction next month. The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, is expected to show a 0.3% increase for July, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
“Positive equity market sentiment over the past few months has been predicated in part on the Fed cutting rates,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. “If the CPI release causes the date of the first rate cut to be pushed out, there is clearly a risk that sentiment takes a hit.”
While price action could be skewed to the downside in the event of a hot print, there is also upside risk that investors might be overlooking, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. traders.
“What worries us is a rotation that could happen in the ‘market bullish’ scenario of a benign CPI,” said Shawn Tuteja, who oversees ETF and custom baskets volatility trading at the bank. “One way to hedge against that is buying cyclical calls, but another way in our view given levels and overall asymmetry, could be to strike some semis and AI hedges.”
Elsewhere, some investors and analysts also warned that Trump’s 90-day extension of the US-China trade truce could prolong uncertainty and pose a more persistent risk to inflation, clouding the outlook for Fed policymakers. “While it preserves the flow of goods under prior terms with 30% rate, it keeps the threat of them very much in place,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. “For the Fed, this reinforces the difficulty of striking the right balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.”
European stocks rose before the key US inflation data. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by energy, industrial and mining shares. US equity futures are little changed.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced as global trade worries eased after Trump’s China tariff move. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, led by Japanese shares which hit a record high after trading resumed following Monday’s holiday. Japanese and Korean chip stocks were given a boost by Trump’s signal he would be open to allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled-back version of its Blackwell AI chip to China.
In rates, treasuries are little changed ahead of July CPI data at 8:30am New York time, with UK and German yields higher after data including a smaller-than-expected drop in UK payrolls. US yields remain within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels with 10-year near 4.29%; UK and German 10-year counterparts are higher by 4bp and 1.4bp after a smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls prompted traders to trim bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England this year.
In FX, the pound gains 0.3%, topping the G-10 leader board with the Swiss franc. The Aussie dollar underperforms after the RBA cut rates and trimmed its 2025 growth outlook.
UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.59%. The pound gains 0.3%, topping the G-10 leader board with the Swiss franc. The Aussie dollar underperforms after the RBA cut rates and trimmed its 2025 growth outlook. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by energy, industrial and mining shares. US equity futures are little changed. Nvidia slips 0.3% premarket after
In commodities, WTI crude is steady near $64, and spot gold climbs $7 to $3,349/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes the CPI print at 830a, and July federal budget balance at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (10am) and Schmid (10:30am). Lastly, notable earnings include CoreWeave and Circle Internet Group.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini unchanged
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX -0.2%
- CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.28%
- VIX little changed at 16.26
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.61
- euro little changed at $1.161
- WTI crude +0.1% at $64.03/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Beijing has urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia Corp.’s H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes, complicating the chipmaker’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China revenue after the Trump administration reversed an effective US ban on such sales. Beijing’s worried about location-tracking and remote shutdown capabilities, which Nvidia has previously denied. BBG
- Trump posted that he met with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan along with Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent, while he stated “The meeting was a very interesting one. His success and rise is an amazing story. Mr. Tan and my Cabinet members are going to spend time together, and bring suggestions to me during the next week.”
- Elon Musk accused Apple of favoring OpenAI in its app store and said xAI will take legal action. BBG
- US imports from China slowed sharply ahead of the Aug. 11 tariff deadline. Although the new 90-day delay agreement offers temporary relief, the drop in shipments signals potential risks to American growth and corporate margins. BBG
- Xi Jinping called for coordinated efforts against unilateralism and protectionism — language usually used by China to criticize US trade policy — in a phone conversation with Brazil’s President Lula da Silva. BBG
- Trump said that he plans to nominate E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency’s handling of jobs data, had the support of conservatives like former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The position requires Senate confirmation. WSJ
- Britain’s jobs market has weakened again, official data showed, with payrolls falling for a sixth month and vacancies dropping further, but wage growth stayed strong, underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates (payrolled employees -8K in Jul, wages elevated at +5%). RTRS
- Australia’s central bank lowered rates by 25bp overnight (as expected), and signaled further easing going forward (“updated staff forecasts for the August meeting suggest that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path”). RBA
- Intel’s stock rose premarket (INTC 3% pre mkt) after CEO Lip-Bu Tan appeared to reset his strained relationship with Trump during a White House meeting. The president called Tan’s success “amazing” and said discussions will continue. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- China issued a statement on US economic and trade ties in which it stated that China will suspend tariffs for 90 days and will retain an additional 10% tariff rate, while it will adopt and maintain all necessary measures to suspend or remove non-tariff measures taken against the US.
- China updated its export control lists and noted firms can apply to trade with entities under the list and it halted measures on 12 US entities on the export list, while it said it will grant licences if exporters meet requirements and it is suspending adding some US firms to the export control list for 90 days.
- China urges firms not to use NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chips in new guidance, according to Bloomberg
- China’s Commerce Ministry has launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and announced preliminary investigation results on Canadian canola seed. The ministry also released preliminary findings on imports of halogenated butyl rubber from Canada, Japan, and India. Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to take practical steps to stabilise global chip supply chains.
- South Africa’s Trade Minister stated the country stands ready to utilise its trade remedy measures to safeguard and protect domestic industry.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St and traded mostly higher with outperformance in Japan on return from the extended weekend and following a deluge of earnings, while participants also reflected on the recent US-China trade truce extension. ASX 200 eked slight gains and extended on record highs with only mild tailwinds seen after the RBA delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut. Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and followed suit to the record-setting performance in the TOPIX with the index underpinned following a slew of earnings releases and recent currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat following the confirmation of a 90-day extension to the US-China tariff truce with the new deadline set for November 9th.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi held talks with Brazilian President Lula, with the call said to have lasted about an hour and both presidents highlighted willingness to identify new business opportunities between the two economies.
- US President Trump and South Korean President Lee are to hold a summit on August 25th where they will discuss economic cooperation and economic security partnership, as well as the evolving strategic alliance between the two countries.
- RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it reiterated that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain as well as noted that maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority. RBA stated that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3% range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path, and it noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. Furthermore, it stated the cut was due to underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3% range and labour market conditions easing slightly.
- RBA Governor Bullock stated there had been no discussions of a larger rate cut, while noting that current forecasts imply the Cash Rate may need to be lower to ensure price stability, with the Board to take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not ruling out back-to-back rate cuts. She added that the recovery in house prices has been gradual so far, though forecasts are dependent on further rate cuts, and without these, targets would likely be missed. Governor Bullock also said she places little emphasis on the neutral rate, while noting that if the Fed were to lower rates too quickly, it would have global implications. Furthermore, she highlighted that policy remains forward-looking, with the assumption that rates can continue to be lowered.
- Italy PM Meloni seeks to shrink Chinese holdings at key Italian companies, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) began the session firmer, and continue to hold this bias but in rangebound trade into US CPI. European sectors traded mostly in the green (bar Tech) for the entire morning, given the slightly upbeat tone ahead of CPI. Energy trades at the top of the pile with Basic resources nipping at its heels for most of the morning – the latter lifted by strength in underlying iron ore prices.
Top European News
- German investor confidence sinks as costs of trade deal hit home
- UK loses fewer jobs than expected, clouding path to rate-cut
FX
- USD is broadly flat vs. peers in the run-up to today’s eagerly anticipated US inflation report. Expectations are for core M/M inflation to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% with the Y/Y rate seen rising to 3.0% from 2.9%. On the Fed, Bloomberg reports that Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are now also in the running for the Chair position. Elsewhere, on the trade front, US President Trump has signed an Executive Order that will extend the tariff suspension on China for another 90 days, as expected. DXY is contained within Monday’s 98.03-99.67 range.
- EUR is steady vs. the USD as the narrative surrounding the Eurozone remains the same. That narrative being that the ECB is holding policy steady with inflation under control but mindful of any potential growth headwinds in Q3 as the impact of the US tariffs on the Bloc filters through into the data. Today’s ZEW deteriorated from the priors and also missed expectations, although it prompted no move in the EUR. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.16 handle, but still some way off Monday’s best at 1.1675.
- JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD as Japanese participants returned to the market and sent the Nikkei 225 to a record high. Incremental macro drivers for Japan are lacking. USD/JPY has eclipsed Monday’s best at 148.25 with a current session high at 148.44.
- Cable is higher in the wake of the latest UK jobs report, which failed to show a marked deterioration in the labour market that some had been positioned for. The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%, employment change showed a larger-than-expected pick up to 238k from 134k, the contraction in HRMC payrolls change slowed to -8k from -26k and wage growth came in a touch softer than forecast on a headline basis. Overall, the takeaway is that the UK labour market is softening, but the rate of change appears to be slowing. Cable has advanced further on a 1.34 handle but is still shy of Monday’s 1.3477 peak.
- AUD is the marginal laggard across the majors in the wake of the latest RBA policy announcement, which saw the central bank pull the trigger on a widely expected 25bps rate cut. The decision to do so was unanimous, and the accompanying policy statement reiterated language that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain. The central bank also simultaneously released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which showed a downgrade to the estimate of Australia’s long-run productivity growth to 0.7% from 1.0% and with trend GDP growth now seen around 2.0%, down from 2.25%. AUD/USD has slipped onto a 0.64 handle with a session low at 0.6494.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1901 (Prev. 7.1405)
Fixed Income
- USTs trade with a very mild negative bias, ultimately trading just under the unchanged mark as traders position themselves ahead of today’s US CPI. Price action today has been incredibly boring – rangebound in a tight 111-23 to 111-27+ range. The low for today has breached the trough from Monday (111-24+). Delving into the day’s key risk event, all focus on the US inflation data. US July CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M at the headline level (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%.
- Bunds trade with a slight negative bias, but ultimately in rangebound trade ahead of US CPI. Currently trading in a 129.49-70 range, with the trough for the day around about 8 ticks below the low from Monday. As was the case in the prior session, the docket from an EZ-perspective has been exceptionally thin and is unlikely to pick up throughout the week. There was German ZEW data earlier, which showed a dip in sentiment in August – likely with participants disappointed by the EU-US trade deal.
- Gilts are underperforming today and lower by around 35 ticks, to trade towards the bottom end of a 91.86 to 92.12 range. This comes after the region’s job report, which overall highlighted a cooling labour market but nothing quite alarming enough for the BoE to accelerate the cutting cycle – as such the report has been considered as more conducive to the Bank’s “gradual” monpol approach. Gilt 2030 auction passed without issue, garnering a fairly strong b/c; not entirely surprising given the short-dated maturity of the auction.
- UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.375% 2030 Gilt: b/c 3.15x (prev. 3.12x), average yield 4.022% (prev. 4.078%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.2bps)
Commodities
- Crude futures are rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow and as participants await US CPI and geopolitical updates. Earlier today, Russian security services reported that an attack on a senior Defence Ministry official was foiled on the outskirts of Moscow, according to Al Arabiya. This did not influence prices at the time, with a wider focus likely on the Trump-Putin meeting this Friday. WTI currently resides in a 64.12-65.08/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.70-67.58/bbl range.
- Spot gold ekes out mild gains after it nursed some losses overnight after yesterday’s retreat, and with an indecisive reaction to President Trump’s announcement that the precious metal will not be tariffed. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,340.69-3,357.94/oz range, compared to Monday’s USD 3,340.09-3,404.19/oz range.
- Copper futures edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite in Asia and the 90-day US-China tariff truce extension, which was as expected. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,733.22-9,789.00/t range.
- Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources stated that all options are being studied to increase gas exports to Syria from 3.4 million to 6 million cubic meters per day, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Chile’s Codelco copper production rose 17.3% Y/Y in June to 120.2k tons, while Escondida copper production fell 33% Y/Y in June to 76.4k tons and Collahuasi copper production fell 29.1% Y/Y in June to 34.3k tons.
Geopolitics
- Ukrainian President Zelensky posts “We see that the Russian army is not preparing to end the war. On the contrary, they are making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations.”.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said he hopes the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump will give momentum to normalisation of Russia-US relations, according to TASS.
- Russian security services reported that an attack on a senior Defence Ministry official was foiled on the outskirts of Moscow, according to Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: Jul NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.85, prior 98.6
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3%, prior 2.9%
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI Index NSA, est. 323.29, prior 322.56
- 8:30 am: Jul CPI Core Index SA, est. 328.56, prior 327.6
- 2:00 pm: Jul Federal Budget Balance, est. -239.15b, prior 27.01b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have been relatively subdued over the last 24 hours, as investors await today’s US CPI print and the much anticipated Trump-Putin summit on Friday. One obstacle for the week has passed as Trump last night extended the US-China trade truce for another 90 days. The previous deadline was due to expire today. So with investors very much in wait-and-see mode, major asset classes only saw modest moves yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.25%) closing slightly lower, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+0.3bps) moved very little all day. Asian markets have picked up a bit of positive momentum overnight though.
Of course, the relative calm could all change today with the US CPI print for July, where investors are keenly focused on how tariffs are filtering into consumer prices. Indeed, our US economists think that the core CPI print will be at +0.32%, which would be the fastest in six months, and clearly raise concerns about inflation that’s still lingering above the Fed’s target. So if realised, that would push the year-on-year core CPI rate up to +3.0%, and it would be very close to rounding up to +3.1%. Then for headline inflation, they’re looking for a +0.24% monthly print, that would push the year-on-year number up to +2.8%. For more details, see our economists’ full preview and how to sign up to their webinar here.
This report will be an important one for the Fed, in part because of the unexpectedly weak jobs report earlier this month. That contained sizeable downward revisions and meant that markets have dialled up their expectations for rate cuts as soon as the next meeting in September, with futures currently giving that an 88% chance. So our economists note in their preview that a downside surprise in today’s CPI print would strengthen rate cut expectations, whereas an in-line or stronger print would require further data to provide clarity on that. They also put out a note yesterday on the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed’s Board, and run through what it would take to get a 25bp or 50bp cut at the next meeting (link here). Their central case remains that there will be no cuts until December but obviously the risks are building that it is earlier.
Sticking to the Fed, Bloomberg reported yesterday that two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, were under consideration for the Fed Chair position next year. Compared to other recent stories on the topic, the report suggested that a wider range of candidates were in play and that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks before presenting a recommended short-list to Trump.
Overnight Mr Trump has appointed EJ Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing the former head on the day of the last payroll report (August 1st). Antoni was the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy think tank that authored the Project 2025 report that informed much of Trump 2.0 administration’s thinking.
The other important news surrounded Ukraine yesterday, and it was confirmed that German Chancellor Merz will convene Trump and President Zelensky and other European leaders for an emergency call tomorrow afternoon before Trump’s talks with Putin. According to Politico, the call will discuss different options against Russia, questions about Ukrainian territories seized by Moscow, security guarantees for Kyiv and the sequencing of potential peace talks. However, investor expectations for a breakthrough out of Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin faded yesterday, with Trump himself downplaying expectations from what he called a “feel-out” meeting. Several European bourses lost ground, including the STOXX 600 (-0.06%), the DAX (-0.34%) and the CAC 40 (-0.57%). Oil prices fluctuated ahead of the talks, with Brent crude eventually closing up +0.18%.
US equities also saw pretty muted moves on Monday, even after news broke over the weekend that Nvidia (-0.35%) and AMD (-0.28%) had agreed to pay 15% of their revenues on Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in a deal to secure export licenses, even if some say the move is illegal. Trump confirmed the deal, saying he could also allow Nvidia to export a scaled-back version of its most advanced Blackwell chip to China. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -0.13%, with its decline mitigated by Intel (+3.51%) whose CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with Trump yesterday, despite Trump calling for his resignation last week. The Mag-7 (-0.09%) saw a modest outperformance thanks to a +2.85% advance by Tesla.
One other notable story was Trump’s extension last night of the tariff truce between the US and China, which was due to expire today, for another 90 days. As a reminder, after an escalatory spiral post-Liberation Day that saw US tariffs on China go as high as 145%, additional US tariffs on China have been at 30% since the truce agreed in mid-May. China has also extended their own suspension of tariffs for 90 days, with November 10th being the new deadline for both sides.
Meanwhile in fixed income, US Treasuries were little changed ahead of the CPI release today, with the 2yr yield up +0.5bps and the 10yr up +0.3bps to 4.29%. Our rates strategists yesterday recommended going short 10yr Treasuries with a 4.60% yield target, seeing upside for term premia trades. With the US seeing a negative supply shock on tariffs and immigration but with demand growth indicators still close to potential, they see the economic case for policy rates going deeply below neutral as relatively weak, while aggressive rate cuts due to political pressure could lead long-end yields to rise. See their full note here for more.
Continental European yields edged higher in several countries yesterday, including 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+0.9bps). However, 10yr gilts (-3.6bps) outperformed, as investors priced in more rate cuts from the Bank of England over the coming months in response to a weak KPMG-REC corporate payroll survey.
Overnight in Asia, markets are mostly continuing their recent run, buoyed by the 90-day tariff pause between the US and China. The CSI (+0.60%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.51%), are higher but with the Hang Seng and KOSPI broadly flat. The Nikkei (+2.76%) is very strong after yesterday’s holiday. In Australia, the RBA decreased its cash rate target by 25bps to 3.60% as universally expected, with the S&P/ASX200 increasing after the decision (+0.33%). Equity futures are trading a touch higher this morning, with the S&P 500 up +0.09% and the Nasdaq up +0.10%.
To the day ahead now, in addition to the US July CPI report we’ll also get data on NFIB small business optimism, federal budget balance, UK June average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, July jobless claims change, Germany’s August Zew survey and June’s current account balance, the Eurozone’s August Zew survey, and Canada’s June building permits. Central bank speakers include Fed’s Barkin. Lastly, notable earnings include CoreWeave and Circle Internet Group.
2b) European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
AUD little changed post-RBA & Trump extends China tariff suspension – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 01:29 AM
- US President Trump signed an Executive Order that will extend the tariff suspension on China for another 90 days.
- US President Trump announced on Truth Social that gold will not be tariffed.
- Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are reportedly under consideration for Fed Chair, according to Bloomberg.
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher (Japan outperformed post-holiday), Europe expected to open firmer (Eurostoxx 50 future +0.3%).
- DXY steady, AUD little changed after widely expected RBA rate cut, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle.
- US President Trump said there will be some swapping and changes in land between Russia and Ukraine.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR, Fed’s Barkin & Schmid, supply from the UK.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately settled lower to start the week in a day of quiet newsflow, with attention turning to US CPI on Tuesday. Highlights came from over the weekend, whereby US President Trump approved export licenses for NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) to sell chips to China, albeit not tier 1 chips, but in return for 15% of revenue to be paid back to the US government, while the announcement that Trump signed an Executive Order for a 90-day extension to the US-China trade truce was widely expected and garnered little reaction. Meanwhile, sectors were mixed as Consumer Discretionary, Staples, and Health Care outperformed, although Energy, Tech and Real Estate lagged.
- SPX -0.20% at 6,377, NDX -0.36% at 23,527, DJI -0.45% at 43,976, RUT -0.04% at 2,217.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said regarding China trade that they’ve been dealing nicely and that he has a very good relationship with Chinese President Xi. It was later announced that President Trump signed an Executive Order that will extend the tariff suspension on China for another 90 days and all other elements of the agreement will remain the same.
- China issued a statement on US economic and trade ties in which it stated that China will suspend tariffs for 90 days and will retain an additional 10% tariff rate, while it will adopt and maintain all necessary measures to suspend or remove non-tariff measures taken against the US.
- China updated its export control lists and noted firms can apply to trade with entities under the list and it halted measures on 12 US entities on the export list, while it said it will grant licences if exporters meet requirements and it is suspending adding some US firms to the export control list for 90 days.
- US President Trump said regarding NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) chips that it involves an old chip that China already has and he would not make a deal with NVIDIA’s new advanced chips, while he confirmed a 15% payment on H20 chips to China.
- China urges firms not to use NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chips in new guidance, according to Bloomberg
- US President Trump announced on Truth Social that gold will not be tariffed.
- Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said a virtual meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent has been called off and no fresh date has been scheduled.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are reportedly under consideration for Fed Chair, while the White House is on track for a Fed Chair announcement this fall, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Trump is nominating economist Dr. E.J. Antoni as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while he added “Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE”.
- US President Trump posted that he met with Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan along with Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent, while he stated “The meeting was a very interesting one. His success and rise is an amazing story. Mr. Tan and my Cabinet members are going to spend time together, and bring suggestions to me during the next week.”
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St and traded mostly higher with outperformance in Japan on return from the extended weekend and following a deluge of earnings, while participants also reflected on the recent US-China trade truce extension.
- ASX 200 eked slight gains and extended on record highs with only mild tailwinds seen after the RBA delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut.
- Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and followed suit to the record-setting performance in the TOPIX with the index underpinned following a slew of earnings releases and recent currency weakness.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat following the confirmation of a 90-day extension to the US-China tariff truce with the new deadline set for November 9th.
- US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C) lacked firm direction after the prior day’s weakness and with US CPI data on the horizon.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was little changed but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils as participants awaited US CPI data while there were several recent developments but had little sway on price action for the dollar including US President Trump signing an Executive Order to extend the US/China trade truce for 90 days to November 9th, while he announced that gold would not be tariffed, and it was also reported that Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are all under consideration for the Fed Chair with the White House on track for a Fed Chair announcement in the fall.
- EUR/USD regained some composure after a recent brief dip to sub-1.1600 territory but with the rebound limited amid light catalysts from the bloc and as geopolitics remained in the spotlight ahead of the Trump/Putin meeting on Friday.
- GBP/USD lacked direction but is off the prior day’s lows after bouncing off support at the 1.3400 level and with UK employment and average earnings data due today.
- USD/JPY marginally extended on recent gains at the 148.00 handle amid the outperformance in Japanese stock markets.
- Antipodeans were choppy following the RBA rate decision which delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut to lower the Cash Rate to 3.60% and signalled further easing ahead which is in line with the current market consensus.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1901 (Prev. 7.1405)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued after the prior day’s lacklustre performance heading into US CPI data, while it was also reported that the Trump administration widened potential candidates for Fed Chair with Fed’s Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan reportedly under consideration for the position.
- Bund futures traded little changed with price action contained following a failed attempt to reclaim the 130.00 level and as German ZEW data looms.
- 10yr JGB futures conformed to the humdrum mood seen in global counterparts with demand hampered amid a lack of tier-1 data and as Japanese stocks outperformed.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow and as participants await upcoming key events including the Trump/Putin meeting on Friday.
- Spot gold nursed some losses after yesterday’s retreat and with an indecisive reaction seen to President Trump’s announcement that the precious metal will not be tariffed.
- Copper futures edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite in Asia and the 90-day US-China tariff truce extension.
- Chile’s Codelco copper production rose 17.3% Y/Y in June to 120.2k tons, while Escondida copper production fell 33% Y/Y in June to 76.4k tons and Collahuasi copper production fell 29.1% Y/Y in June to 34.3k tons.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin eked slight gains with price action choppy throughout the session on both sides of the USD 119k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi held talks with Brazilian President Lula, with the call said to have lasted about an hour and both presidents highlighted willingness to identify new business opportunities between the two economies.
- US President Trump and South Korean President Lee are to hold a summit on August 25th where they will discuss economic cooperation and economic security partnership, as well as the evolving strategic alliance between the two countries.
- RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it reiterated that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain as well as noted that maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority. RBA stated that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3% range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path, and it noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. Furthermore, it stated the cut was due to underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3% range and labour market conditions easing slightly.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul) 7.0 (Prev. 5.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jul) 5.0 (Prev. 9.0)
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q2 F) 1.4% (Prelim. 1.4%)
- Singapore GDP YY (Q2 F) 4.4% (Prelim. 4.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said regarding the upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin that it is a feel-out meeting and he is going to tell Putin to end the war, while he thinks they will have a constructive conversation and he will speak with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Furthermore, Trump said the next meeting will be with Zelensky, or with Putin and Zelensky, and there will be some swapping and changes in land.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said he hopes the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump will give momentum to normalisation of Russia-US relations, according to TASS.
- EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said EU foreign ministers expressed support for US steps that will lead to peace in Russia and Ukraine, while they will work on more Russian sanctions and more military support for Ukraine.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jul) 1.8% (Prev. 2.7%)
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Jul) 2.5% (Prev. 3.1%)
- Barclays UK July Consumer Spending rose 1.1% Y/Y (prev. -0.1% Y/Y in June)
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
CHINA USA
China urges its tech giants to avoid Nvidia’s AI H20 chips for fear of back door entry
(zerohedge)
China Urges Tech Giants To Avoid Nvidia H20 Chips After Trump Lifts Sales Ban
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 09:05 AM
Beijing is quietly discouraging Chinese firms, particularly those tied to state and/or national security interests, from using Nvidia’s H20 AI chips, even after the Trump administration reversed a U.S. sales ban in exchange for 15% of related revenue. The move follows Beijing’s concerns over a potential “backdoor” in the H20, an allegation Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has rejected.
The report comes from the Financial Times, which states that regulators at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) instructed tech companies, such as Alibaba and ByteDance, to explain why they need H20 chips instead of sourcing domestic alternatives.
“It’s not banned but has kind of become a politically incorrect thing to do,” said one Chinese data center operator about purchasing H20 chips.
In a separate report, Bloomberg said that Chinese authorities had sent notices to multiple tech firms, urging against the use of the H20 chips, especially in government-related work.
Sources familiar with the letter said Beijing has not imposed an outright ban on the use of H20 chips. Still, many industry analysts note that Chinese tech firms continue to favor the H20 for AI applications. On Monday, President Trump described the chip as “obsolete” but acknowledged it “still has a market” in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bloomberg noted, “Beijing’s stance could limit Trump’s ability to turn his export control about-face into a windfall for government coffers, a deal that highlighted his administration’s transactional approach to national security policies long treated as non-negotiable.”
Nvidia told Reuters on Tuesday that the H20 chip was “not a military product or for government infrastructure.”
“China has an ample supply of domestic chips to meet its needs. It won’t and never has relied on American chips for government operations, just like the U.S. government would not rely on chips from China,” the statement said.
In short, China is restricting the use of U.S. AI chips in sensitive areas while promoting domestic suppliers, mirroring the identical approach the U.S. has taken toward Huawei.
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
France is in a big mess with massive drug use and migrant crimes
(zerohedge)
France Is No Longer France
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 11:25 AM
French authorities detained 12 suspects after 145 people reported being pricked with syringes during Fête de la Musique — France’s annual World Music Day celebration. For perspective on how dramatically the festival has changed in three decades, compare the atmosphere of the 1994 event to the chaos seen this past weekend.
Millions flooded the streets across France on Saturday to celebrate the universal language of music through open-air concerts, pop-up performances, community orchestras, DJ sets, and more. While footage earlier in the day showed an orderly atmosphere, the night quickly descended into unrest.
State-owned international news television France 24 provided more color on the stabbings:
Before the party, posts on Snapchat and other social media had called for targeting women during the festivities.
The interior ministry said 145 victims reported being stabbed with needles across the country, with Paris police reporting 13 cases in the capital.
Officials did not specify if they were cases of so-called needle spiking with date-rape drugs such as Rohypnol or GHB, used by attackers to render victims confused or unconscious and vulnerable to sexual assault.
“Some victims were taken to hospital for toxicological tests,” the ministry said.
In Paris, investigations were opened after three people including a 15-year-old girl and an 18-year-old male, reported being stabbed in three different locations in Paris, prosecutors said.
We need to revisit footage from the 1994 Fête de la Musique to understand what went wrong with society. The difference is stark, and much of the blame likely lies with decades of failed progressive policies that have eroded society, fueling chaos and lawlessness. Mass migration has likely accelerated these problems.
FRANCE
Why France’s Boomers Will Delay Deficit Reduction Indefinitely
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 05:00 AM
By Jean Dalbard, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
France continues to fall short on fiscal consolidation. Recent data from Insee suggest that the heavy reliance on direct transfers by certain social groups, particularly pensioners, combined with their growing electoral heft, may be a key constraint. These factors make it harder for the government to undertake significant fiscal adjustments without running the risk of political instability.
Based on these findings and given the proximity to local (1Q26) and presidential elections (2Q27), we continue to think there is a good chance the recently announced consolidation package of roughly €44 billion will target public services, rather than direct transfers. We can’t dismiss the chance of it being substantially watered down.
Social Groups Reliance on Public Transfers
Forces Hindering Fiscal Consolidation
France has historically struggled to reduce its fiscal deficit. One key reason: spending cuts tend to affect the groups with the most electoral influence. This was illustrated in late 2024, when then-Prime Minister Michel Barnier proposed delaying the price indexation of pensions in the 2025 budget. The aim was to save up to €4 billion, but his government was ultimately brought down by a censure motion which was backed by a majority of parties claiming to defend pensioners.
In a 1989 working paper, the authors (Alesina and Drazen) noted that social groups can indeed strategically postpone much-needed fiscal consolidation. These groups delay measures in the hope that the associated costs will eventually be borne by another group. In such settings, fiscal adjustments rely on less-vocal social groups, or are triggered by a crisis or an external shock, such as a loss of investor confidence.
A Much-Needed Fiscal Adjustment
Deteriorating fiscal arithmetics and a sluggish growth outlook has made deficit reduction in France increasingly urgent. The primary balance required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio between 2026 and 2030 is estimated at –0.7%. But France’s track-record is weak: the average primary balance from 2002 to 2019 reached -1.9%, and is projected to reach –2.3% on average over 2026-2030.
Meanwhile, the population remains deeply divided about how to reduce spending, despite becoming increasingly aware of the country’s risky fiscal outlook. Public debt has emerged as a top-five concern in opinion polls.
Large Consolidation Needed to Stabilize Debt
Mapping Affected Groups
To understand why spending-led fiscal consolidations are so hard to deliver, we use a recent dataset provided by the Insee to estimate the potential cost of austerity for different social groups. This dataset offers information on household total income, before and after direct and indirect public transfers.
Direct transfers include all monetary transfers such as pensions, unemployment benefits, and subsidies. Indirect transfers capture the imputed value of public services received, including healthcare, education, or housing assistance.
Based on this data, we construct two exposure metrics: (1) direct exposure, defined as the ratio of direct transfers to total income; (2) indirect exposure, defined analogously for indirect transfers. The higher a group’s exposure, the more costly spending cuts would be for them.
We visualize these relationships using a bubble chart (see first chart), where the position of each social group reflects its exposure, and the size of each bubble corresponds to its share in the total population. These social groups are not mutually exclusive. The chart highlights which groups are more dependent on public redistribution and are therefore more likely to resist or delay a fiscal adjustment.
Vulnerable to External Shock
Under this framework, pensioners emerge as the social group that would bear the highest direct cost from any reduction in direct transfers, which account for nearly 60% of their total income. They are followed by individuals with lower secondary diplomas, for whom direct transfers, and notably unemployment benefits, represent close to 40% of their income.
Both groups also exhibit high levels of indirect exposure, with indirect transfers representing around 40% of their initial income (before redistribution). Across the population, however, the level of indirect exposure is lower and more evenly distributed.
These findings confirm that fiscal consolidation through cuts to public services may encounter less political opposition, as there’s a smaller share of the population has high indirect exposure. On the other hand, targeting direct transfers (such as pensions) is likely to face strong resistance, given that boomers are among most affected and now account for more than 50% of the electorate.
All this hinders the government’s ability to prevent fiscal slippage and leaves the country susceptible to external shocks, such as a loss of investor confidence. Still, there is a high risk that Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s consolidation measures will be undercut by political concessions during the autumn parliamentary debates.
END
NATO
Cracks Appear In NATO Unity Ahead Of Alaska Summit On Ukraine Territorial Concessions
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as head of NATO’s largest and most well-armed ‘eastern flank’ country, expressed both concern and cautious optimism on Monday ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin summit set in Alaska, focused on the war in Ukraine.
Tusk emphasized ‘hope’ based on Washington’s assurance that it would consult its European allies before the talks. “The US has committed to consulting with its European partners ahead of the Alaska meeting,” Tusk told a press conference. “I will wait to see the outcome of the talks between Presidents Trump and Putin — I have many concerns, but also some hope.” But he also laid out, “The West, including European countries, will not accept Russian demands which simply amount to the seizure of Ukrainian territory.”
Tusk further stressed that European leaders were united in their stance on peace negotiations, insisting that Ukraine must be actively included in any talks.
But the reality and elephant in the room is that Moscow is not going to sign onto a final peace settlement and halt its special military operation for nothing short of territorial concessions. It is not going to give up its conquered territories in the Donbas, which it has already declared part of the Russian Federation.
“For Poland and our partners, it is clear: borders cannot be altered by force,” Tursk said. “Russia must not gain from its aggression against Ukraine.”
The rest of European leadership clearly agrees with him. “As we work towards a sustainable and just peace, international law is clear: All temporarily occupied territories belong to Ukraine,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said. “A sustainable peace also means that aggression cannot be rewarded.”
And yet, on Sunday NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte actually for the first time opened the door a little on the question of territorial concessions:
“In the end, the issue of the fact that the Russians are controlling at this moment, factually, a part of Ukraine has to be on the table” in any peace talks after the Alaska summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on CBS on Sunday.
Rutte said Ukraine’s Western backers “can never accept that in a legal sense,” but he suggested that they might tacitly acknowledge Russian control.
He compared it to the way that the U.S. hosted the diplomatic missions of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from 1940 to 1991, “acknowledging that the Soviet Union was controlling those territories, but never accepting (it) in a legal sense.”
He explained, “When it comes to the entire issue of territory, when it comes to recognition, for example, perhaps in a future agreement, that Russia actually controls part of Ukrainian territory, that must be an actual recognition, not a de jure political recognition.”
Watch Turk lay down Europe’s red lines on negotiations and what’s at stake:
Does this reflect Trump’s thinking too? If there’s any hope whatsoever of making headway with Putin in Alaska, this will indeed have to be on the table. Otherwise there will be no point in talking and the whole meeitng will prove futile in terms of finding a settlement.
Still, what Russia will come a away with is a big diplomatic win regardless – just in the optics alone – in the fact that ‘isolated’ Putin is given a face-to-face bilateral summit with Trump.
END
GERMANY
this will bring down Germany!
(ReMix)
Germany’s Federal Employment Agency Is Promoting Welfare Benefits To Young Migrants
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Germany’s Federal Employment Agency is actively promoting the country’s “citizen’s benefit” (Bürgergeld) to young migrants, presenting it online as a straightforward and appealing option for those without work.
A dedicated section of the agency’s website, written in English for “people from abroad,” features a smiling young couple — including a man in his early thirties holding a book and a woman in a hijab — under the headline:
“If you are unable to finance your own living expenses, under certain circumstances the Jobcenter will support you with the citizen’s benefit.”
The site outlines that the benefit is a state welfare payment for those with “no income or who do not earn enough money” to support themselves and their dependents. Basic eligibility criteria are listed plainly: “You are capable of working,” “You are at least 15 years old,” and “You live in Germany and the center of your life is here.” The guidance stresses that applicants need not be elderly or unfit for work — those under 15 or unable to work can also receive support if they are part of a “community of need” with someone who qualifies.
Alongside the requirements, the website presents the process as quick and simple. A prominent red box invites visitors to “apply online,” advising them that if they already have an account, they can begin their application “immediately.”
The page also sets out obligations for recipients — attending Jobcenter appointments, informing the agency of any changes in personal circumstances — but the overall tone is one of ease and accessibility.
Writing in Focus, columnist Jan Fleischhauer uses the site as a starting point for a broader critique of Germany’s welfare policy toward migrants. He notes that “one in two recipients of the citizen’s benefit doesn’t have a German passport,” and says the warm, promotional tone of the agency’s online material undermines political claims that immigration is essential to sustain the social safety net.
“Germany is so generous that it not only explains to immigrants from abroad how to get a job, but also how to make ends meet in Germany without one,” he writes.
Fleischhauer argues that few countries would so openly market their welfare systems to newcomers, and that the policy has been “a complete success” in driving take-up among non-citizens. He points to the steady rise in costs — from €39 billion in 2022 to €47 billion in 2024 — not including accommodation and healthcare expenses.
He also highlights Health Minister Nina Warken’s proposal to shift medical costs for Bürgergeld recipients out of health insurance budgets and into general taxation, claiming advocates of the benefit “fear nothing more than transparency” about the true financial burden.
Remix News has reported often on the imbalance between German citizens and foreigners receiving welfare benefits. In November last year, we cited statistics from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) which showed that of the 4 million people who can work but receive social benefits in Germany, more than 2.5 million have a migration background, constituting 63.5 percent of all recipients.
This group includes foreigners and those who have a foreign background, which means their parents may have been born abroad.
In June, Bild reported how nearly half of Germany’s €17.68 billion in housing support for 2024 was paid out to foreigners, citing government data.
The money, distributed under the citizen’s benefit system, was used to cover rent, heating, operating costs, and deposits for low-income residents.
Of the total, €8.15 billion went to people without German citizenship, even though they make up just around 15 percent of the population.
The remaining €9.53 billion went to German citizens — this includes German-born individuals and those born elsewhere who have become naturalized.
Following its electoral success, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) vowed to address the rising costs of immigrants claiming benefits.
Its General Secretary, Carsten Linnemann, warned against this trend in April. “Once again, it shows how urgently this citizen’s allowance needs to be abolished.” He said the new government, which his party will lead, will “tackle this quickly.”
END
UK
Climate change (goals) will bring down the UK as well
(EpochTimes)
Push To Cut Livestock For Climate Goals (Due To Burping & Farting) Worries UK Farmers, Ecologists
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
UK government advisers have urged deep cuts to the country’s cattle and sheep numbers to reduce the overall levels of methane emissions.
Officials insist no mass cull is planned.
But farmers are concerned that it’s part of a growing push to reduce livestock levels, which could sacrifice traditional grazing and damage the fragile ecosystems it supports.
The UK’s net-zero policies go further than those of the European Commission, where cattle farms remain outside regulatory crosshairs until next year.
In February, the UK’s independent adviser on climate action, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), whose advice strongly guides government policy, recommended a 27 percent decrease in cattle and sheep numbers by 2040 in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the UK government, agriculture is the country’s largest source of domestic methane emissions, accounting for 49 percent of total emissions. Of this, around 85 percent of agricultural methane comes from cows and other ruminant animals through enteric fermentation and is released as mostly burps but also flatulence.
One discussed option in the House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee’s 2024 report as a mitigation strategy included “reducing ruminant livestock numbers, enabled by dietary change and reduced food waste.”
‘It’s Completely Backwards’
Britain’s livestock farms, which are mostly grass-based, are integrated into the iconic patchwork countryside, with sheep and cattle grazing in open fields divided by hedgerows and stone walls as part of a complex natural ecosystem.
Alan Hughes, a fourth-generation tenant farmer who is part of the Farmers to Action agricultural rights campaign, told The Epoch Times that wider net-zero proposals on livestock ignore the ecological function of grazing.
“It’s completely backwards to stop grazing. It causes fires, which then releases far more CO₂ than the livestock sequence by grazing,” he said.
He added that without sheep grazing, “sheep don’t eat the dry matter,” which then turns to kindling.
“This then starts wildfires, from the peat and from the crops which should have been eaten by the sheep, which causes a massive release of CO₂,” he said.
Beyond fire risk, Hughes said that reducing livestock also damages food security and degrades natural ecosystems.
“The biggest issue we’re going to have before long is not enough protein to feed our population, which is why they’re looking at bugs,” he said.
“If they force us to do more, I call it ‘less natural’ ways of production. If you don’t have livestock grazing, you don’t have the manure or improve the biodiversity of soil, and that’s when you get soil erosion, which causes deserts, or you’re forced to do vegetable crops.
“Now, when you plow up a field for vegetable crops, you kill the root structure of grass. Now that then turns to methane and carbon dioxide, which is actually released.”
When asked for comment, the Tenant Farmers Association pointed The Epoch Times to a statement made in February by Chief Executive George Dunn that also pushed back against the CCC’s recommendations
“Livestock farmers are merely recycling carbon sequestered from the atmosphere in the grass that they grow, together with the hedgerows and trees existing on their holdings,” the group said.
“However, they are also the custodians of a massive carbon bank in their soils that have locked up carbon for the benefit of the nation and the world.”
Campaigners
The CCC’s recommendations carry legal and political weight because of the UK’s 2008 Climate Change Act, which legally commits the country to net‑zero by 2050. The UK is one of only a few countries to tie net-zero objectives into law with a statutory obligation.
Campaigners are using this law to enable government action.
Chris Packham, a naturalist and BBC TV presenter, used the Act in 2023 to challenge then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s delay of heat pump and electric car targets. The case reached a legal settlement in October 2024 after the new Labour government said the previous administration had acted unlawfully.
Packham, with his co-founded group Wild Justice, is now focusing on Dartmoor, a vast moorland in the county of Devon, Southwest England, blaming sheep for biodiversity loss.
The presenter said in a July Guardian op‑ed that “livestock—particularly sheep—continue to destroy what little heather moorland is left.”
The group, represented by environmental law firm Leigh Day, is taking legal action against the Dartmoor Commoners’ Council, which represents local farmers with traditional grazing rights, under environmental and conservation regulations, rather than the Climate Change Act.
Supporters of sheep farming, such as The Moorland Association, say that sheep have been grazing Dartmoor for thousands of years.
“They have been quietly grazing Dartmoor for around 3,500 years, long before the Industrial Revolution left its mark. It seems unfair to lay today’s environmental problems at the hooves of animals that have coexisted with this landscape for millennia,” it said.
‘Tension’
By contrast, the European Union has so far targeted only the largest pig and poultry farms with binding emissions rules.
Cattle farms remain outside the current scope pending a formal evaluation by 2026.
A 2023 research paper published in peer-reviewed journal La Revue de l’OFCE suggested that EU cattle herds may need to shrink by around 16.3 million head to deliver around 30 percent greenhouse gas reductions by 2030.
Ecologist and rangeland researcher Pablo Manzano said that the wider debate could be overlooking ecological realities.
“They want to go against livestock, and particularly against extensive, grazing livestock, because they consider it something that triggers climate change,” he told The Epoch Times.
However, he said that grazing livestock is needed to maintain biodiversity in Europe.
“This is widely understood by the people that work on ecosystems,” he said.
“So at the end of the day, there is a tension between the people caring about climate and the people caring about biodiversity—in the sense that biodiversity protection allows for a climatic burden to be born in order to protect biodiversity.”
Manzano’s research has found that historic populations of wild herbivores on the planet were at similar levels to domestic herbivore biomass across the world, demonstrating they have played an ongoing role in balancing ancient ecosystems for millions of years.
But he said the U.N. Convention on Climate Change classifies managed lands as emission sources, without factoring in key ecological dynamics.
“If they were reverted to the natural state, it means that its emissions should not be considered as anthropogenic, because they are part of the natural emissions of an ecosystem,” he said.
“And it not only happens with grazing livestock, it also happens with, for example, when we plant rice in a wetland, wetlands have a lot of emissions also. They don’t differ much from the emissions of rice.”
To prevent livestock emissions, some policymakers are promoting intensification rather than traditional grazing as the solution.
“To intensify them … so that you would lower the footprint per kilogram of products. That’s definitely in the discussion,” he said.
“You don’t only need to understand a little bit of your gas concentration in the atmosphere, you also have to have a little bit of understanding on ecology: niche ecology and wide ecosystem ecology. So I think a lot of people also get lost in these things.”
‘A Symbiotic Relationship’
Author and farmer Jamie Blackett told The Epoch Times that he shared Manzano’s view that anything “that is a natural process is something that should be encouraged as much as possible.”
“There is a symbiotic relationship between grazing cattle and the insects that live in their dung, the birds that eat the insects. Without cows, there are no cow pats, and without cow pats, there are no insects. Without insects, there are no birds. That’s how it works,” he said.
He said his own farm is not yet directly affected by net‑zero livestock rules but that “there is always the threat.”
A spokeswoman for the CCC pointed The Epoch Times by email to a statement in its Seventh Carbon Budget, which urged the government to provide “incentives and address barriers for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management into woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops and renewable energy.”
The report also recommended providing “long-term certainty on public funding for farming practices and technologies which reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock.”
Wild Justice did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
‘Deliberate and misleading’: Israeli defense report refutes Hamas’s claims of Gaza starvation
Their review reportedly found a gap between the deaths attributed to malnutrition as reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and the cases documented.
Palestinians carry aid supplies they collected from trucks that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia, in the northern Gaza Strip August 10, 2025.(photo credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 12, 2025 10:03Updated: AUGUST 12, 2025 12:37
Israel refuted the claims of starvation in the Gaza Strip, stating that Hamas was behind “deliberate and misleading” publication of data, in a report published by COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) on Tuesday.
According to COGAT, Hamas portrays Gazan patients with severe pre-existing conditions as having died from malnutrition, saying that this was part of a coordinated campaign by Hamas “to discredit the State of Israel and achieve political gains.”
Their review reportedly found a gap between the deaths attributed to malnutrition as reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and the cases documented and published with details in media and social media.
Since early July, the report said that there has been an increase in the number of alleged malnutrition deaths reported by the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Until June 2025, 66 such deaths had been reported from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War, and in July alone, more than 133 deaths were reported due to malnutrition.
COGAT’s review said that the Gaza Health Ministry did not release the names of the deceased as it had done in the past.
For example, on July 19, Hamas announced 18 malnutrition-related deaths, and on July 22, another 15, but COGAT’s probe identified only a handful of cases, adding that this raises doubt about their credibility.
Israeli report alleges deaths due to pre-existing medical conditions, health deterioration
The review added that following a case-by-case analysis of the published deaths, most of those allegedly dying from malnutrition had pre-existing medical conditions that led to the deterioration of their health, unrelated to nutritional status.
COGAT also reported that some had received medical treatments in Israel prior to the outbreak of the war, saying that the documented cases don’t represent the condition of the general population in Gaza and present only extreme cases involving pre-existing illnesses.
The report pointed to images circulated online of four-year-old Abdullah Hani Muhammad Abu Zarqa, with media claiming that his condition was due to hunger in Gaza. However, COGAT stated that following an investigation, they found that the young boy suffers from a genetic disease causing vitamin and mineral deficiencies, osteoporosis, and bone thinning, a condition affecting other family members.
Prior to the war, Zarqa traveled with his mother to an east Jerusalem hospital to receive medical treatment.
This is a developing story.
end
WATCH: Hamas uses fake WCK humanitarian vehicle to target IDF soldiers in Gaza
The IDF said that the WCK confirmed that the vehicle had no affiliation with the international organization and had posed a threat to troops.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3936012&url=https://www.jpost.com/Hamas terrorists use a fake WCK vehicle to target IDF soldiers under the guise of a humanitarian organization. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 12, 2025 18:59Updated: AUGUST 12, 2025 19:11
In a targeted airstrike last week, the IDF killed five armed fighters who were near a vehicle marked with the emblem of the international humanitarian aid organization World Central Kitchen (WCK) last week, the military announced on Tuesday.
It said that the WCK confirmed that it had no affiliation with the international organization and had posed a threat to troops.
It added that they “deliberately affixed the emblem and wore yellow vests in an attempt to conceal their activity and avoid being targeted, cynically exploiting the status and trust afforded to aid organizations.”
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the miliary unit responsible for overseeing civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, confirmed with WCK had not been connected to the operations of the vehicle, added the IDF.
The vehicle was located several days ago in the area of Deir al-Balah. An IAF jet struck it and killed the terrorists.
“Hamas and other terrorist organizations exploit the humanitarian effort to advance terrorist objectives at the expense of the welfare of the population in Gaza. The IDF, through COGAT, will continue to work in cooperation with international aid organizations to prevent their exploitation for terrorist purposes,” said the IDF.
Reports of IDF special forces arresting suspects in Deir al-Balah
The announcement follows earlier, unconfirmed reports of an arrest made by an undercover unit, also in the area of Deir al-Balah, of Ismail Abed al-Karim Khatab.
Reports did not indicate his significance, but did say he was brought to the Kissufim Crossing, and that the strikes occurred soon after. IAF airstrikes targeted the area soon after.
END
Netanyahu: ‘If We Wanted To Commit Genocide, It Would Have Taken Exactly One Afternoon’
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 02:40 PM
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the accusation that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, but at a recent press conference he employed a reference which stunned press pool reporters.
“If we had wanted to commit genocide, it would have taken exactly one afternoon,” he had said, as quoted in Times of Israel. This comes as Israeli forces are increasingly accused of intentionally using starvation tactics to gain total submission of the enclave, which Tel Aviv has rejected as false.
Netanyahu has been on the defensive, doing back-to-back press conferences focused on foreign journalists, and seeking to also deflect accusations that Israel has not used humanitarian aid as a tool of war.
There’s been immense domestic and international criticism as he’s chosen to puruse to total military defeat of Hamas, a goal which ultimatley could take years more to fully accomplish.
Netanyahu further once again denied that the population of Gaza is undergoing starvation, also alleging that most of the civilians killed are used intentionally by Hamas as human shields.
Below is more of what he had to say in context related to his firm comments on the question of genocide:
“There is no starvation. There hasn’t been starvation. There was a shortage. And certainly, there was no policy of starvation,” Netanyahu said at the press conference. “If we had wanted starvation, if that had been our policy, 2 million Gazans wouldn’t be living today after 20 months.”
He continued, “It’s the same with genocide — if we had wanted to commit genocide, it would have taken exactly one afternoon.”
Netanyahu has also increasingly begun addressing the clear shift in the American Right, or at least some influential corners of it – such as Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene’s commentary which has grown fiercly criticial of Israeli policies:
Netanyahu is sounding the alarm on a new kind of war: a “concerted effort” to turn young Christians against Israel. He’s blaming “purchased influencers” and a media that’s rewriting history one post at a time.
Al Jazeera is meanwhile reporting that Israeli jets have renewed their bombing of Gaza City, after the government declared a new and expanded offensive there, and that since dawn on Tuesday at least 67 Palestinians have died.
Denmark has become the latest European country to join humanitarian air drop operations over the Strip, amid the controversy over aid getting in.
Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has admitted that air drops are “by no means an optimal way to deliver emergency aid” – given the potential for harm to people on the ground. “It is a kind of emergency solution, but it is also where we are now,” he said.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
How “rare” is ALS? Roberta Flack, bassist Matt Keil; NE: singer George Kooymans; AU: chef Kurt Sampson; UK: drummer Jerry Conway, footies Paul Rendall & Geoff Wheel are among those now killed by it
And so are Aussies Roz Hervey, dancer/choreographer, and TV host Fiona MacDonald; Ottawa asst. coach Bob Jones; Kenyan footie Ezekiel Otuoma; NZ dancer Norm Hewitt; and more
| Mark Crispin MillerAug 11 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
In alphabetical order by country:
Fatal ALS/MND
AUSTRALIA (3)
Kurt Sampson, one of Australia’s most accomplished chefs, dies aged 57 [two-year battle with Motor Neuron Disease]
August 2, 2025
Two years after MND diagnosis, Roz Hervey [58] says farewell before accessing voluntary assisted dying
November 9, 2024
Former children’s TV host Fiona MacDonald dies aged 67 after motor neurone disease diagnosis
October 3, 2024
CANADA (11)
Lieu Chan Truong, 74 [ALS]
September 12, 2024
Jody Offen, 54 [ALS]
December 11, 2023
Former Comeback Kid Bassist Matt Keil Has Passed Away [39, on May 2, 2024, Matt was diagnosed with ALS]
July 18, 2025
George Feenstra, 72 [ALS]
February 3, 2025
Jeffrey Ambrose Forbes [ALS]
May 3, 2025
Ottawa Senators Mourn the Passing of Former Assistant Coach Bob Jones [ALS]
July 26, 2024
Janice Mary Knight, 59 [ALS]
August 16, 2024
Ryan Marino Joseph Bonin, 38 [ALS]
July 30, 2024
Debra Margaret Kelly [ALS]
July 23, 2024
Bibi Fareeda Harrison, 71 [ALS]
July 27, 2025
Mario Unção, 72 [ALS]
March 25, 2025
INDIA
Veteran Journalist B Muralidhar Reddy Passes Away at 64 [MND]
June 23, 2024
IRELAND (4)
Charlie Bird dies aged 74 after motor neurone diagnosis
March 12, 2024
Isolde Bradley [MND]
July 10, 2025
Robert Carroll [MND]
March 6, 2025
Jules (Julie) Wells [MND]
March 5, 2025
KENYA
Ex-AFC Leopards Footballer Ezekiel Otuoma [38] Succumbs to Motor Neurone Disease
December 21, 2024
NETHERLANDS
Lead singer of Golden Earring has passed away at age 77 [ALS, diagnosed in 2021]
July 23, 2025
NEW ZEALAND (14)
Norm Hewitt dies: Former All Black, Dancing with the Stars winner loses battle with motor neurone disease
July 16, 2024
Vivian Mary JP Pollock [MND]
May 16, 2024
Queensland State of Origin cult hero Carl Webb dead at 42 [MND]
December 22, 2023
Robin Gerald Manderson, 66 [MND]
July 15, 2025
Ola Höglund: A Life Shaped by Glass, 68 [MND]
May 3, 2025
Larry Frederick Tolliday, 71 [MND]
December 18, 2024
Carolyn (nee Fenwick) Waddell, 63 [MND]
December 5, 2024
Gavin Neil Voss, 76 [MND]
August 29, 2024
Sandra Caroline Glen-Orchard, 65 [MND]
August 27, 2024
Michael Glenn Lawn, 52 [MND]
June 8, 2024
Myles Bennett MacDuff, 47 [MND]
May 14, 2024
Valerie Bernadette Furness [MND]
February 6, 2024
Matthew David Pavletich, 59 [MND]
January 30, 2024
Doreen Wainanga Elliffe [MND]
December 26, 2023
UNITED KINGDOM (16)
David ‘Syd’ Lawrence: Former England and Gloucestershire bowler dies aged 61 after motor neurone disease diagnosis [almost exactly a year ago]
June 22, 2025
Paul Rendall dead at 69: Former England rugby star nicknamed ‘The Judge’ dies after MND illness
DR PAUL ALEXANDERS
BOOM! Huge praise for POTUS Trump as he federalizes DC police! That sewer filth fecal place called Washington DC with the central government House congress & senate leading the feces”President Donald
Trump announced Monday that he was placing the D.C. police under direct federal control and will deploy the National Guard to the streets of Washington to fight crime, an extraordinary flex of federal
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 11 |
power that stripped city leadership of its ability to make law enforcement decisions and could expose residents of the nation’s capital to unpredictable encounters with a domestically deployed military force.”
Great move Trump and again, I say you are the only person deserving of the PEACE PRIZE NOEBL this year…2025…PEACE Prize for daddy Trump…NOBEL…
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Trump readies federal moves on D.C. crime, takes over D.C. police
The decision to take over the Metropolitan Police Department and deploy 800 National Guard troops comes as the president has been slamming America’s cities as places where crime is out of control, despite two years of declines that have brought homicide levels in many major cities to their lowest levels in decades.
The administration has already mobilized FBI agents in recent days in overnight shifts to help local law enforcement prevent carjackings and violent crime, officials said. Because the District of Columbia is not a state, the federal government has unusually sweeping powers to intervene over the objections of its residents and leaders, giving the president an opportunity to use it as a laboratory for a militarized approach to urban crime-fighting.
Trump portrayed a sweeping vision of law enforcement on the streets of Washington, declaring that federal agents, D.C. police and the National Guard would use physical force to intimidate lawbreakers inside the District.’
“They fight back until you knock the hell out of them, because it’s the only language they understand,” Trump told reporters at a White House news conference. “It’s a disgusting thing.”
“It’s becoming a situation of complete and total lawlessness, and we’re getting rid of the slums, too,” Trump added. “I know it’s not politically correct. You’ll say, ‘Oh, so terrible.’ No, we’re getting rid of the slums where they live.”
Trump has portrayed crime in the nation’s capital as spiraling upward. D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) has noted repeatedly that violent crime has declined for the past two years after a sharp post-pandemic spike in 2023.’
___
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NEWS ADDICTS
| Our Latest PostsDem Lawmaker Arrested For Shoplifting From Target Once AgainConnecticut State Rep. Raghib Allie-Brennan (D) is facing fresh criminal charges after allegedly stealing from a Target store for the second time this summer — and from the same location as his first arrest just weeks ago.Allie-Brennan, 33, turned himself in to police on July 28 after a warrant was issued for an incident at the Bethel, Connecticut Target — …READ THE FULL REPORTTrump Renews Calls for Investigation Into Pelosi Over Insider Trading AllegationsPresident Donald Trump is again demanding an investigation into former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her husband, Paul Pelosi, over accusations of insider trading.In a Saturday Truth Social post, Trump blasted the Pelosis, writing:“Crooked Nancy Pelosi, and her very ‘interesting’ husband, beat every Hedge Fund in 2024. In other words, these two very average ‘minds’ beat ALL of the …READ THE FULL REPORTBorder Wall Auction House Strikes Deal with Trump Admin After Biden’s $350M SaleA major government-surplus auction company says it will return unused border wall materials to the federal government — reversing course after the Biden administration halted construction and moved to sell them off at rock-bottom prices.GovPlanet, a subsidiary of Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers-RB Global, confirmed to Fox News Digital Friday that it reached a deal with the Trump administration’s Office of the …READ THE FULL REPORTBernie Sanders Comments on Potential 2028 RunSen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) appears to be ruling out another presidential run in 2028, telling CNN on Sunday that his age “speaks for itself.”Sanders, who turns 84 next month, made the remark during an interview on State of the Union with Dana Bash.When asked if he might mount another campaign, the progressive firebrand responded, “Let’s not worry about that… I …READ THE FULL REPORTCounterterrorism Teams Deployed to Protect Ghislaine Maxwell’s Life in PrisonGhislaine Maxwell — the convicted sex trafficker and longtime accomplice of Jeffrey Epstein — is under heavy security at a Texas prison after receiving multiple death threats, according to a New York Sun report.Federal corrections officials have deployed the Bureau of Prisons’ Counter Terrorism Unit and Special Operations forces to the Federal Prison Camp Bryan, where Maxwell was quietly transferred …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST NEWS |
| Trump considers deploying up to 1,000 National Guard to DC — says ‘homeless must move immediately’President Donald Trump is reportedly considering deploying up to 1,000 National Guard troops to Washington DC, in a decisive move to tackle down the rising tide of crime in the capital city. According to one defense official and two U.S. officials who spoke on Sunday night, Trump may announce as early as Monday that up to 1,000 National Guard troops …READ MORE |
| Kash Patel Unveils Huge FBI NewsFBI Director Kash Patel celebrated significant achievements by the bureau during the first 200 days of the Trump administration, highlighting record-breaking arrests and drug seizures.Patel took to his official X account on Saturday to share key law enforcement statistics and underscore the FBI’s ongoing commitment to tackling violent crime, human trafficking, drug trafficking, and terrorism.According to Patel, over 1,600 individuals …READ MORE |
| DOJ Unveils Major Epstein MoveThe Justice Department has filed a request to unseal grand jury exhibits and testimony from its prosecutions of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, with redactions to protect the identities of victims, according to court documents filed on August 8.The filing, signed by Jay Clayton, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, states that unsealing will proceed only after …READ MORE |
| Trump Suffers Key Court Losses by Dem JudgesThe Trump administration faced two significant legal defeats on Friday, as federal judges in California and Rhode Island issued rulings against key policies backed by the White House.In California, U.S. District Judge Jennifer Thurston ordered the release of Salam Maklad, a Syrian national the administration sought to deport.Maklad, a member of the Druze religious minority, arrived in the United States …READ MORE |
| Pelosi Faces Bombshell Accusation: ‘Disgusting Degenerate’President Donald Trump blasted former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her husband Paul for allegedly beating “every hedge fund” in 2024, a claim he says exposes insider trading at the highest levels of government.“Crooked Nancy Pelosi, and her very ‘interesting’ husband, beat every Hedge Fund in 2024,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “In other words, these two very average …READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL /ENERGY ISSUES/WORLD WIDE
Texas Warns Wastewater Injection Threatens Permian Oil Reserves
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 11:00 AM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
The Texas General Land Office (GLO) has formally objected to a plan by Pilot Water Solutions LLC to drill three new saltwater disposal wells in the Permian Basin, warning the project could contaminate state-owned crude reserves in North America’s top oil field, according to the Dallas Morning News.
Founded in 1836, the GLO manages 13 million acres of state land and generates billions of dollars for Texas public schools through oil and gas leasing.
It argues the proposed disposal sites in Loving County near the New Mexico border pose “significant risk” to mineral interests under its control.
Bloomberg reports that ConocoPhillips, one of the Permian’s largest producers, has joined the opposition, noting that in the area near the proposed wells it is producing less than 40% of expected oil volumes while generating nearly twice the forecast water output.
For every barrel of oil pumped in the Permian, as many as five barrels of wastewater are produced, presenting a growing operational and environmental challenge.
Reuters notes that disposal capacity is under mounting strain, with costs climbing and injection-related earthquakes drawing regulatory scrutiny.
The Railroad Commission of Texas will hold a hearing later this month to assess the Pilot Water Solutions proposal.
State officials are weighing contamination risks alongside concerns about induced seismicity linked to high-volume wastewater injection.
Environmental groups and local ranchers have long warned about the hazards of underground wastewater disposal, but record Permian output has made the problem more acute.
The GLO’s opposition is the first real indication we are seeing that water management is no longer just a peripheral environmental issue, but is now a direct threat to oil production economics in the nation’s most prolific basin.
end
INDIA RUSSIA/USA: OIL
Trump’s “Deadly Serious” Russia Squeeze Shown In Big Tariffs On Ally India
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 01:00 PM
By Simon Watkins of OilPrice.com
- Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50% over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
- The move risks nearly 1% of India’s GDP this year but underscores U.S. determination to coordinate with the EU on sanctions to weaken Russia’s economy and deter its geopolitical ambitions.
- India, alongside China and Turkey, remains a top buyer of Russian oil, and Washington is preparing similar tariff threats.
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,” U.S. President Donald Trump posted last week on Truth Social. “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”
These words directly implicate buyers of Russian oil as accomplices in the murder of tens of thousands of Ukrainian people in the war started by the Kremlin on 24 February 2022, as indeed they have been. Had these words been said in 2008 when Europe continued to buy Russian oil after it attacked Georgia, or in 201,4 when the continent continued to buy Russian oil after it annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region, then the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine might never have happened. They were not said, it did happen, but this time around, the U.S. President is looking to the future in his actions today. His seriousness is further underlined by the fact that India – long seen as a key ally to Washington in the Asia-Pacific region – now faces big tariffs.
So what does this all mean, and what will happen next?
Slightly in advance of the 8 August deadline imposed by Trump on Russia to make a peace deal with Ukraine, the U.S. doubled its tariffs on India to 50% — a rate that will come into effect on 27 August. The U.S. is India’s top export market, constituting 18% of its exports and 2.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Many of the country’s major exporting firms had already stated that they could not deal with the 25% tariffs, as they are too high to absorb, and passing them on to customers makes their products uncompetitive. Initial analysts’ estimates are that 50% tariffs could reduce India’s GDP by nearly 1% this year. But the U.S. knows all this, which is one of the reasons why it has chosen to do it, according to a very senior European Union (E.U.) energy security source who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com on the day of the new Indian tariffs announcement.
“India is known as a key ally of the U.S. globally, and especially in Asia Pacific, and the thinking is that if he [Trump] is willing to do that to India, then he would be willing to do that to anyone else, and this is absolutely the case – he [Trump] is deadly serious on squeezing Russia’s economy from here,” he said. “The message should not be lost on European countries who might be thinking of easing up on the sanctions being rolled out on Russia from now to December 2027 [when the intention is to end all imports of Russian oil and gas],” he added.
Indeed, a closely co-ordinated ramping up of sanctions against Moscow by the U.S. and E.U. is seen by both sides as key to preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from realising his dream of reconstituting the full scope of the U.S.S.R.’s previous European empire, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. “Trump believes that the continuation of European purchases of Russian oil and gas after the annexation of Crimea, especially in 2014, was key to the Russian action in Ukraine in 2022, as underlined in his comments on the Nordstream gas pipelines [from Russia to the heart of Europe],” he highlighted.
In this context, India has a multi-layered strategic importance to the U.S. The most notable of these is the objective of positioning it as the regional counterweight to China’s economic, political, and military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Washington’s efforts in this regard intensified following the 15 June 2020 clash between Chinese and Indian troops in the disputed territory of the Galwan Valley in the Himalayas, as the U.S. believed this marked a new push back strategy from India against China’s policy of seeking to increase its economic and military alliances through its multi-generational power-grab project, the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI). The U.S. further believed that this push back might also be echoed in India’s economic desire to finally make substantive progress on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy as an alternative to China’s BRI programme. However, for this to work, India would need access to secure energy sources over the long term, as – like China – it has few oil and gas sources of its own. Indeed, given the potential economic growth projections for India, the International Energy Agency forecast that the Asian sub-continental power would constitute the biggest share of global energy demand growth at 25% in the coming two decades. In fact, the IEA predicted India would overtake the European Union as the world’s third-biggest energy consumer by 2030. It was at this point – in Trump’s first term as president – that the plan was hatched to link this plan to use India to challenge China as Asia’s major power in parallel with a corollary objective to use the UAE to promote further relationship normalisation deals (‘Abraham Accords’) between Israel and key Arab states in the Middle East. This remains a second key reason why India is so important to Washington.
Nevertheless, India – along with China and Turkey – is still one of the biggest buyers of Russia’s energy exports three years into Moscow’s war in Ukraine. According to industry figures, last month saw it receive 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia, while China imported around 1 million bpd and Turkey about 500,000 bpd. Over the entirety of 2024, China was the largest buyer of Russian oil, at about 2.2 million bpd, followed by India on 1.76 million bpd, and Turkey on 0.3 million bpd. The U.S. has already warned China that ongoing imports of Russian oil could lead to huge tariffs being imposed on the country, according to the E.U. source. “During the talks [end-July U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm], [U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent told his opposite number [Vice Premier He Lifeng] that legislation [‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025’] is being drawn up in Congress authorising the imposition of up to 500% tariffs on countries that buy sanctioned Russian oil,” he exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. In reality, the Act goes wider to encompass any country that “knowingly sells, supplies, transfers, or purchases oil, uranium, petroleum products, or petrochemical products that originated in the Russian Federation”. It currently has 84 listed co-sponsors in the U.S. Senate alone, according to the U.S. Congress website, and the Speaker of the House has also indicated his chamber’s support to pass the bill.
The U.S. has also suggested to China that it may treat Beijing’s assistance to Russia in much the same manner as it has started to treat the same for Iran. This was seen in the very recent U.S. State Department announcement on Iran-related sanctions that it would impose sanctions on 20 entities it believes are engaged in trading Iranian oil and petrochemical products, including China’s Zhoushan Jinrun Petroleum Transfer Co., an oil terminal in the greater Zhoushan port area. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson said of these China sanctions that:
“The Iranian regime continues to fuel conflict in the Middle East to fund its destabilizing activities, [and] Today, the United States is taking action to stem the flow of revenue that the regime uses to support terrorism abroad, as well as to oppress its own people.”
Zhoushan Jinrun was highlighted by the State Department for: “…knowingly engaging in a significant transaction for the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum or petroleum products from Iran”. The port is the fourth of China’s to be sanctioned by Washington in recent weeks, following similar actions against Huaying Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical Terminal Storage in March, Guangsha Zhoushan in April, and Dongying Port in May.
“More is to come,” the very senior U.S. legal source told OilPrice.com at the time of the sanctions announcement and could include a dramatically increased list of blacklisted Chinese officials, businesses, banks, financial houses, ports, ships, and supportive infrastructure to the facilitation of Russian oil imports.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
INDIA/PAKISTAN
“We’ll Take Half World Down With Us”: India Outraged By Pak Army Chief’s Nuke Threats From US Soil
Monday, Aug 11, 2025 – 07:40 PM
Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, has been on a tour of the United States over several days, which included attendance at a farewell function for the chief of the US Central Command, Gen. Michael Kurilla. The trip is said to be Gen. Munir’s second visit in less than two months.
While in Tampa (where CENTCOM’s HQ base is located), Gen. Munir also spoke at a private event for the Pakistani diaspora in America. His words there have set off outrage and condemnation from India on Monday, including fresh nuclear sabre-rattling.
“We are a nuclear power. If we go down, we’ll take half the world with us,” Munir reportedly had stated. What has heightened the anger in New Delhi is that this is the first time a top Pakistani official has issued an apparent nuclear threat from US soil.
Munir also threatened to target infrastructure projects India might build on the Indus River, amid the recent conflict and diplomatic standoff over historic water rights treaties.
Referring to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty after the deadly Pahalgam terror attack of last April, he claimed it could lead to famine for 250 million people. “Let them build a dam, and we’ll hit it with ten missiles,” he was quoted as saying, adding, “We have no shortage of missiles, al-hamdulillah [praise be to God].”
He also during the speech called India a shiny Mercedes, compared to “dump truck” Pakistan – in reference to military stregnth and impact:
“India is shining, a Mercedes coming on a highway like a Ferrari, but we are a dump truck full of gravel. If the truck hits the car, who is going to be the loser?” he said in a “crude analogy”.
The top army chief had further raised eyebrows on the question of military intervention in government affairs: “People say war is too serious to be left to the generals, but politics is also too serious to be left to the politicians,” he said at the disapora event.
The Indian government issued a statement condemning the remarks:
India on Monday accused its neighbour Pakistan of “sabre rattling” and “irresponsibility” after media reports on remarks about nuclear threats in South Asia made by Pakistan’s army chief while on a visit to the United States.
The statement also accused Pakistan of using nuclear saber-rattling as its “stock-in-trade”. The two neighboring countires, who have fought several historic border wars, have both been nuclear-armed for decades – a fact which has frequently been cause for alarm for the whole south Asia region.
Additionally, an Indian lawmaker, Jairam Ramesh, responded Monday by saying: “It is bizarre that the US establishment is giving such a man such special treatment.” The White House has not weighed in and is not expected to, but it is also of course an ally of India, and the Indian Embassy in D.C. is likely going to try and seek answers.
The Pentagon and US intelligence have long been close to Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment, especially related to anti-USSR activities (supporting the Afghan mujahideen) in the 1980s – as well as ‘counterterror’ operations in the Af-Pak region from the 1990s and into the 2000s.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1615 DOWN 0.0002 PTS OR 2 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.43 UP 0.277 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3469 UP .0036 OR 36 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3789 UP 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 18.37 PTS OR 0.50%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.87 PTS OR 0.25%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.36%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 62.77 PTS OR 0.25%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.37 PTS OR 0.50%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.36 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 897.69 PTS OR 2.15%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3348.20
silver:$37.80
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.35 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.138% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.517% UP 3 FULL POINTS AND 00/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.301 UP 7 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.560 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7376 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1623 UP 0.0005 OR 5 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.41 UP 0.265 OR YEN IS DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.634 UP 7 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0016 OR 16 BASIS pts to 1.3792
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1867 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1920
TURKISH LIRA: 40.74 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.517
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.3000% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.882 UP 5 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7656UP 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3349.55
SILVER AT 11;00: 37.67
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 18.10 PTS OR 0.37%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 56.56 pts or 0.23%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 54.90 pts or 0.71%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 3.10 pts or 0.02%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 351.83 or 0.85%
WTI Oil price 63.44 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.31 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.91 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 2/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.427 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.956 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1669 UP 0.0053 OR 53 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3490 UP .0059 OR 59 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6190 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.506 UP 2 FULL BASIS PT
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.76 DOWN 0.391 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3782 UP 0.0007 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.20
Brent OIL: 66.10
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.291
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 PTS to 4.882%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 3.733%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.435 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.962 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.93 DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.73 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.85 DOWN 0 AND 35/100 roubles //
GOLD $3346.20 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 37.84 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 199.29 OR 0.45%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 76.54 PTS OR 0.32%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.07 UP 0.92 PTS OR 1.44%
GLD: $ 308.55 DOWN 4.50 PTS OR 1.44%
SLV/ $34.18 DOWN 0.70 PTS OR OR 0.20%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 30.30 PTS OR 0.11%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Soft’ CPI Sparks Relief Rally To Record Highs In Stocks; Wild Day For Ethereum, Bonds, & The Dollar
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Headline YoY CPI was cooler than expected for the fifth month of the last six this morning (admittedly with plenty for hawks and doves to latch on to under the hood)…
Source: Bloomberg
But the immediate reaction was ‘dovish’ with rate-cut expectations surging and the odds of a September cut rising to near certainty…
Source: Bloomberg
Markets followed suit with the dollar and bond yield dumping and stocks rallying.
Small Caps were the biggest winners today (best day since May), rising 3% with the rest of the US majors up over 1% as CPI supported a relief rally (record highs for all but the Small Caps)…
who could have seen that coming?
watch for tech -> small cap rotation today https://t.co/VbrQZG2Snx
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 12, 2025
and why… As a reminder, hedge funds had never been more short Small Caps into this week…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Today was Small Caps second best day since April relative to Nasdaq
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to another big short squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 and the S&P 493 both rallied in lockstep today…
Source: Bloomberg
Cyclicals notably outperforming with Cyclicals > Defensives having its best day since Mid-May… erasing most of the post-payrolls plunge losses…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘dash for trash’ re-emerged as the biggest losers of the last 12 months surged back up to pre-payrolls plunge levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading floor said today was a 5 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels. Overall we are 2% better to buy led by HF demand in Cons Disc, Fins, and Macro Expressions
- LOs 210bps better for sale (buying Fins and Industrials vs selling Info Tech, Cons Discretionary, and Macro expressions)
- HFs 520bps better to buy (buying in Cons Disc, Fins, and Macro Expressions vs selling Utilities and Energy)
VIX tumbled to a 14 handle, bond vol fell back to YTD lows, geopolitical and trade policy are also plunging…
Source: Bloomberg
Around 1130ET the following headline hit: “*EJ ANTONI SUGGESTS SUSPENDING MONTHLY JOBS REPORT: FOX BUSINESS” and that sent the dollar careening lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the drop in the dollar, gold went nowhere today, flat around the highs from Payrolls day…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were wild today, all crashing on the CPI print before iping back up but leaving the short-end of the curve to outperform (2Y -4bps, 30Y +3bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Prompting a serious steepening of the curve, with 2s30s breaking out to its steepest close since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
As US Breakevens tumbled on the day (betting that inflation is not going to go wild)…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum soared back above $4500 for the first time since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
…dramatically outperforming Bitcoin as the potential for another DeFi Boom remains top of mind…
Source: Bloomberg
…which followed the largest inflow (over a billion dollars) ever for the ETH ETFs yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
Today saw crude prices fall once again with WTI at its lowest close since early June…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, sentiment remains notably weak… this indicator, according to Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello, clearly suggests that investor positioning has been light and continues to support stocks…
Source: Goldman Sachs
“I’m not saying it’s perfect, and like many of these off-the-shelf measures, its value tends to be the highest at extremes,” says Pasquariello, but “with that said, the fact is this indicator would have kept you on the right trail in 2025 — it would have guided you to stay invested. while mindful of current retail enthusiasm, and some spec length that has built up, note the latest reading here is … -0.8″
Additionally, Goldman estimates that 85% of the S&P 500 (through August 8th) has now entered into their open window for buybacks, bringing back another stool of support for the next leg higher.
BIG NEWS THIS AFTERNOON:
Ther uSA is in a big mess: huge July deficit and interest payments for the year will reach 1.2 tirllion dollars
(zeorhedge0
US Deficit Explodes In July Despite Jump In Tariff Revenue As Government Spending Soars
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 03:46 PM
We used to dread covering the monthly update of US government income and spending because, without fail, it would show that the USS Titanic was getting that much closer to the inevitable iceberg. A few months ago, there was a glimmer of hope when the US found a new revenue stream in the form of tariffs and excise taxes, which helped boost government revenue notably. Alas, in the grand scheme of things, this bounce in revenue proved to be too little… and some would say too late.
With that in mind, here is a look at the latest Treasury Income Statement published earlier today.
First, the good news: for the fourth month in a row, the US government benefited from outsized tariff revenues, which as shown in the chart below, have peaked at around $20BN per month – or about $240BN annualized – at the current tariff rate.
But while the $20BN tariff revenue in June was sufficient to tip the overall US Treasury budget into a surplus, July proved to be too great an obstacle.
According to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement, in July the US government spent $630 billion, up 9.7% from the $574 billion a year ago, and the second highest monthly spending total since January. So much for the cost-cutting efforts of DOGE.
This almost 10% surge in spending was offset by a far more modest, or 2.5% increase in revenues, which increased from $330 billion to $338 billion, and this includes the $19.3 billion in tariff revenues noted above. Take those out and government income would have declined YoY.
Putting these two together, and we get a July deficit of $291 billion, a dramatic deterioration from the $27 billion surplus in June, a 20% increase from the $243 billion deficit a year ago, and the second highest monthly deficit of calendar 2025. Worse, it was also the second worst July deficit in US history, with just the post-covid surge in spending (barely) overtaking 2025.
Looking at the deficit on a cumulative basis, we find that after last month’s improvement, the deficit took another lunge, and in July – two months before the fiscal year end – it hit $1.629 trillion, up 7.4% from the $1.517 trillion a year ago. That means that with just two months to go, 2025 is shaping up as the third worst year in US history for the budget deficit, with just the covid years 2020 and 2021, worse.
Last but not least, the epic disaster that is US gross interest spending continues to rise, and in July the US spent $91.9 billion on interest, pushing the total for the first ten months of the fiscal year to a record $1,019 trillion, and on pace to surpass $1.2 trillion for the full year.
It also means that, as we first showed over a year ago, gross interest remains the second highest spending category for the US, well above defense, income security and health spending, and only Social Security remains a larger outlay category (although it is unclear for how much longer).
USA DATA RELEASES
Rate-Cut Odds Soar As US Consumer Prices Once Again Reject Trump Tariff Terror
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 08:37 AM
With a new boss looming at The BLS, one wonders what the ‘old boss’ has in hand for today’s CPI data (with consensus seeing both headline and core YoY price changes ticking higher) after June’s consumer prices came in cooler than expected, disappointing the Trump Tariff Tantrum crowd. Will this time be different… Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time?
Headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (cooler than the 2.8% expected) and in line with the June print…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline CPI rose 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in June. CPI Core rose 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June.
- Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks.
- The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) but YoY rose 3.1% (hotter than the 3.0% expected) – the highest since February…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Fuel Oil and Transportation costs rose the most but Gasoline and Food at Home costs fell MoM…
Core CPI MoM Details:
- The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month.
- The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent in July as did the index for rent.
- Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 1.0 percent in July.
- The medical care index increased 0.7 percent over the month, following a 0.5-percent increase in June.
- The index for dental services increased 2.6 percent in July and the index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent.
- The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month, while the prescription drugs index fell 0.2 percent.
- The index for airline fares increased 4.0 percent over the month, after declining 0.1 percent in June.
- The recreation index increased 0.4 percent over the month, as did the household furnishings and operations index.
- The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.5 percent in July and the index for personal care rose 0.4 percent.
- The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month while the communication index fell 0.3 percent.
Annual changes:
- The shelter index increased 3.7 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.5 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.4 percent), motor vehicle insurance (+5.3 percent), and recreation (+2.4 percent).
Goods inflation is accelerating (some will argue ‘tariffs’, some will argue fuel) while Services inflation has stabilized…
Source: Bloomberg
There is one problem in the data… SuperCore CPI (Services ex-Shelter) rose 0.55% MoM (hottest since January) and up 3.59% YoY (hottest since February)…
Source: Bloomberg
The jump in Transportation costs and Medical Care Services stood out for SuperCore (neither seem like they are affected in any way by tariffs)…
3m and 6m annualized CPI is also refusing to bow to the terror predicted by Trump tariff haters…
So, not exactly the screaming spike in prices that Democrats interviewed by UMich have hallucinated about?
Tiffany Wilding, Pimco economist, tells Bloomberg TV that tariff-related pressures are contained within certain areas of the report:
“It’s very concentrated within goods, it’s happening slowly, and outside of that, inflationary pressures look very manageable. So I think for a Federal Reserve, that is a very good sign.”
Art Hogan, B. Riley Wealth chief market strategist, weighs in:
“Core goods are the real driver of the move up in the index, while being somewhat offset by energy and shelter cost. The report will likely not change the path forward for the Fed, as we expect to see rate cuts at the next three meetings.”
Rate-cut expectations rose after the CPI print with September now trading at 95%…
But there is a silver lining…
And cue the “just wait until next month” arguments!!…
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Trump To Nominate Long-Time Labor Statistics Critic As Head Of BLS
Monday, Aug 11, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Just over a week after Trump’s shocking termination of BLS head, Erika McEntarfer (a 2023 Biden appointee), following a weak jobs report which saw the biggest negative revision outside of covid and prompted Trump to allege that the agency’s economic data was “rigged”, the president announced on Monday that he plans to nominate E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The position requires Senate confirmation.
Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency’s handling of jobs data and fervent booster of ZeroHedge and our data on X, had the support of conservatives like former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.
“Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE,” Trump posted Monday to Truth Social. “I know E.J. Antoni will do an incredible job in this new role.”
Antoni’s nomination is the latest indication that the president wants to see a major makeover to the agency.
As a quick look at @RealEJAnthony X account shows, he has been almost as critical of BLS data manipulation as ZeroHedge, which is why we shudder to think what the next jobs report will look like if the new BLS commissioner decides to kitchen sink all the accumulated BS. One thing is for certain: a negative 10 million jobs report will certainly accelerate Fed rate cuts, and send both gold and crypto to the moon, more or less literally.
While the BLS is an independent agency under the Labor Department which is responsible for measuring and analyzing data on jobs, wages, and the economy, including the monthly jobs report, and helps paint a picture of America’s overall economic health, its data has come in under stark attack in recent years due to massive (mostly downward) revisions in recent years, most notably the near record 818K negative revision in August of 2024, which prompted the September 50bps rate cut by the Fed, viewed by many as a political (if ultimately futile) intervention by the central bank to boost Kamala Harris’ chances of election.
The BLS came under fire after Trump and some of his allies accused it of politicizing revisions to recent jobs reports.
And while everyone knows that the BLS is in charge of the jobs numbers, fewer are aware that the BLS also cooks the inflation books, so to speak, and is the agency responsible for the CPI report… such as the one that drops at 8:30am tomorrow and will shape monetary policy well into 2026. Finally, if Trump indeed intends to politicize the BLS, expect an epic miss in tomorrow’s CPI report.
END
Trump doing a good job on this front
(EpochTimes)
US Mortgage Rates Tumble To Lowest Level Since April
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.63 percent for the week ending Aug. 7, the lowest level since April, according to new data from Freddie Mac.
“The decline in rates increases prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and our research shows that buyers can save thousands by getting quotes from a few different lenders,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in an Aug. 7 statement.
In an Aug. 7 commentary, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at real estate data company Bright MLS, said that while mortgage rates dropped for the third straight week, it isn’t clear whether the trend will continue.
Rates could fall if the economy seems to be on a decline, or may remain high if inflation risks are elevated, she added.
Sturtevant said buyers were also holding back from purchasing homes due to factors such as general uncertainty. Meanwhile, sellers are holding back as they don’t think they’ll get their desired price in the current market, said the chief economist.
“There will be a lot of data coming out in the weeks ahead that could help us get a better handle on where mortgage rates will trend as we head into fall. But it’s very likely that a lot of the data will send conflicting signals,” Sturtevant said.
“The best thing a prospective home buyer can do is to be sure they have their financial ducks in a row and work with a trustworthy and knowledgeable real estate professional so they can be prepared to act if and when rates drop further.”
A cooldown in home price growth and supplies outstripping demand are also contributing toward favorable conditions for buyers, real estate brokerage Redfin said in an Aug. 7 statement.
A person with a monthly housing budget of $3,000 can now afford a higher-priced home due to the lower mortgage rates.
Many sellers are willing to renegotiate prices, with some accepting bids under the asking price or providing freebies to close the deal, according to the brokerage.
“Serious homebuyers should consider taking this window of opportunity to act fast and lock in a mortgage rate,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research.
“Last week’s soft jobs report ups the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market’s anticipation of that cut has already pushed mortgage rates down, and there’s no guarantee they’ll fall further. There’s a chance mortgage rates could fluctuate when more economic data is released in the coming weeks.”
Fed Rates, Affordability
In its recent July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth straight time in a range of 4.25-4.5 percent.
The Fed rate is a major influence on mortgage rates. The longer the Fed keeps its benchmark rates higher, the more difficult it typically would be for mortgage rates to come down.
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters that the agency has adopted a wait-and-see approach.
“Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen,” he said.
At the policy meeting, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman dissented on keeping rates stable and advocated for rate cuts.
Bowman echoed the sentiment recently after Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that July added a smaller-than-expected 73,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, and the agency revised previous data to show job gains had slowed significantly over the past three months.
During an Aug. 9 speech at the Kansas Bankers Association, Bowman said that there may be a “significant softening in labor demand.”
“My Summary of Economic Projections includes three cuts for this year, which has been consistent with my forecast since last December, and the latest labor market data reinforce my view,” she added.
The Fed has three more policy meetings this year. If the central bank were to cut the benchmark rates in any significant manner, mortgage rates could drop further.
According to an Aug. 6 Redfin statement, the income needed to afford a median-priced home has decreased in 11 of the 50 most populous American metro areas, with the company attributing the better affordability to a decline in home prices.
Oakland, California, saw the largest dip, with required income falling 4.6 percent year-over-year. This was followed by West Palm Beach, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; San Diego, California; and Tampa, Florida.
“We’ve been in a buyer’s market for the past eight months. If your home isn’t in 10/10 condition and priced at or below market value, it’s going to linger on the market,” said Katie Shook, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Phoenix.
END
Trump making a mistake: if he gets his rate cut, then long term rates rise
(zerohedge)
Yields Spike After Trump Hints At Powell Lawsuit, Attention Turns To Coming Hot PCE Print
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 10:10 AM
The yield curve is steepening, with 10-year yields spiking from the CPI aftermath (where focus has turned to the red hot Supercore inflation print) and hitting session highs after Trump took to Truth Social to slam Jerome Powell again, just two weeks after the two of them appeared to have patched things up.
After several days without any direct attack on Powell, Trump resumed the onslaught and said he’s considering allowing a lawsuit against the Fed chair related to the building work at the central bank’s buildings.
As Bloomberg notes, the jump in yields might serve as a reminder of what we have learnt over and over again in Latin America – when the executive tries to press for lower rates, borrowing costs tend to go up rather than down.
Trump aside, the rates market took a relief straight after the US CPI release as tariffs pass-through to goods prices looked light. However, the 32bp m/m core CPI in July was still the hottest since January while the Supercore CPI print was especially jarring.
Also, UBS notes that the July PCE number is likely to be a hot one as medical care services printed 79bp m/m. PCE places 20% weights on medical care while CPI only puts 6% weights. Ultimately, the Fed targets PCE not CPI.
end
“Tariffs Have Not Caused Inflation” – Trump Rages At “Bad Predictions”, Slams Goldman CEO
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 01:25 AM
Update (1020ET): President Trump rage-posted about the lack of inflation amid all the tariff-fearmongering…
“Trillions of Dollars are being taken in on Tariffs, which has been incredible for our Country, its Stock Market, its General Wealth, and just about everything else.
It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for Country, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.
Also, it has been shown that, for the most part, Consumers aren’t even paying these Tariffs, it is mostly Companies and Governments, many of them Foreign, picking up the tabs. “
Then took direct aim at Goldman Sachs:
“But David Solomon and Goldman Sachs refuse to give credit where credit is due.
They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the Market repercussion and the Tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else.
I think that David should go out and get himself a new Economist or, maybe, he ought to just focus on being a DJ, and not bother running a major Financial Institution.”
Ouch!
* * *
With a new boss looming at The BLS, one wonders what the ‘old boss’ has in hand for today’s CPI data (with consensus seeing both headline and core YoY price changes ticking higher) after June’s consumer prices came in cooler than expected, disappointing the Trump Tariff Tantrum crowd. Will this time be different… Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time?
Headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (cooler than the 2.8% expected) and in line with the June print…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline CPI rose 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in June. CPI Core rose 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June.
- Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks.
- The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) but YoY rose 3.1% (hotter than the 3.0% expected) – the highest since February…
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
VDH: Disinformation & The Dropping Of The Atomic Bombs
Monday, Aug 11, 2025 – 11:50 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
Legitimate disagreement about the wisdom of dropping two bombs on Japan to end World War II in 1945 persists even 80 years later, as reflected in discussions this past week.
But recently, there has often been no real effort even to present the facts, much less to consider the lose-lose choices involved in using such destructive weapons. In an age of revisionist history—when Churchill is deemed a “terrorist,” Germany did not really mean to starve millions of Jews and Ukrainians in summer and fall 1941, the British forced Hitler to continue the war, and World War II was not worth the cost—so too are Hiroshima and Nagasaki judged as either war crimes or colossal and unnecessary follies.
For today’s generation, it seems so easy to declare one’s 21st-century moral superiority over our ancestors. So we damn them as war criminals, given that they supposedly dropped the bombs without legitimate cause or reason.
What follows are some of the most common critiques of President Truman’s decision to use two nuclear weapons against wartime Japan, with an explanation of why his decision to use the bombs proved, at the time and in hindsight, the correct one.
1) Why did the Americans not drop a trial bomb in Tokyo Bay to warn the Japanese to surrender or face the real thing?
That choice was considered at length. The liberal-minded Robert Oppenheimer had headed a commission to determine the most effective way to use the two bombs to end the war as quickly as possible.
A third nuclear weapon may or may not have been available within a few weeks after the bombing, but there were no others beyond those three at hand for at least a few months. So in early August, only two bombs, the uranium-fission bomb “Little Boy” and its plutonium counterpart “Fat Man,” were deliverable. The limited number of bombs affected the decision to use two on real targets.
Note that a third atomic bomb would not be exploded (in a test) for about a year after the war. Moreover, the uranium bomb used on Hiroshima had never been tested; the plutonium one had, but in the New Mexico desert on a tower and not loaded on and dropped from a plane.
As a result, no one knew for certain whether an air-dropped bomb would even work, the optimal detonation height, or the extent of the destruction it would cause. On the eve of the first test of the plutonium bomb on July 16 in the New Mexico desert, even scientists could not agree whether the plutonium blast would set the sky afire or might be not much more powerful than a large conventional bomb—or something in-between.
So given that there was no sure supply of additional bombs and no real knowledge of the effects of the bombs when dropped from the sky, the advisory commission decided that if the bombers crashed or were shot down with the bombs, or if the bombs prematurely blew up, or if either one failed to explode, or if the test proved underwhelming and did not impress the Japanese military government, then a trial bomb could backfire and only reinforce the Tokyo government’s insistence on refusing to surrender.
Others had earlier noted that despite the dropping of millions of leaflets over targeted Japanese cities to warn civilians to flee their cities, given additional scheduled B-29 fire raids, few had heeded the admonishments.
Either the Japanese people believed that their industries dispersed within civilian neighborhoods were so integral to the survival of Japan that they could not be abandoned, or they did not think the Americans would continue with the raids, or they assumed that their own government would use lethal force to prevent massive flights, or their sense of patriotism and confidence in ultimate victory prevented any mass withdrawals from soon-to-be-targeted cities.
As a result, the commission concluded that only a surprise attack without warning on a military/industrial/urban target would be the best way to maximize the bomb’s ability to shock the Japanese government into surrendering.
Note that even after the second bomb dropped on Nagasaki, there was an attempted coup by senior Japanese military officers aimed at preventing peace discussions. And there were many in the Japanese hierarchy, even after the second bomb, who believed the atomic bombs were too expensive, or too few, or too untested to be used in any further number. Instead, the dead-enders believed that an Okinawa-like resistance on a nationwide scale could still kill so many Allied soldiers that London and Washington would call off the effort to invade and occupy their nation.
2) But why did the Americans need to drop any bombs?
Since March 1945, the B-29s had destroyed perhaps somewhere over 75 percent of the industrial capacity and the urban cores of the majority of the Japanese cities. Yet the military government had shown no sign of surrendering. American submarines and B-29 mining of the harbors had already eliminated almost all maritime traffic in and out of Japanese ports. And still the Japanese resisted.
The months-long firebombing of Japan had cost well over 400 of the massive B-29 bombers (each plane with a crew of 11 and costing $1 million). The recent bloodbath at Okinawa was the deadliest American battle of the entire Pacific War. The fighting was not declared over until just six weeks before Hiroshima, and even then, there still remained pockets of stiff Japanese resistance.
Okinawa had cost over 50,000 American casualties, including 12,000 dead. Over 750 planes were lost and some 380 ships damaged—mostly by attacks by 850 kamikazes. The last twelve months before Hiroshima had killed more Americans than during any other year of the war.
In hindsight, we may think the atomic bombs were superfluous or gratuitous. But the generation that fought the war was despairing that the fighting had become bloodier and more horrific the longer it went on, the closer the allies got to Japan, and the harder it became to impose an unconditional surrender. After Okinawa, they saw no end to the killing in sight, but only more, and far greater, Okinawas on the horizon.
By calculating the number of Japanese troops who fought at Okinawa and the resulting American losses (and also computing the earlier bloody conquest of the Philippines as well), the American military correctly judged that it likely would lose well over one million casualties in the two-pronged invasions of Japan planned for 1945–1946.
Japan could have fielded at least 3.5 million troops and between 5,000and 6,000 kamikazes—one-way fighter-bomber planes analogous to human-guided cruise missiles, far more accurate and deadly than German V-1 buzz bombs.
In sum, the Allies believed that neither the devastating firebombing nor the catastrophic Japanese defeats in the Philippines, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa had broken the will of the Japanese military government. Thus, Truman was desperately seeking some new solution to avoid invasions that would have likely killed millions on both sides. By earlier agreements, the Americans first had to gain the permission of the British to use the atomic bomb, which was not hard, given the savagery that the British had also experienced from the Japanese at Singapore and in Malaysia and Burma.
The two bombs together killed roughly 100,000 to 150,000 people in the first few days after the blast, with thousands more dying later from the aftereffects.
Yet there was never an American eagerness to use its exclusive control of bombs and heavy bombers.
For the next four years, the Americans enjoyed a complete monopoly on atomic bombs from August 1945 to August 1949, when the Russians, through espionage, were finally able to conduct a successful atomic bomb test. Yet, in the period of escalating Soviet-American tensions, which saw ongoing communist revolutions in China, Asia, and Africa, the U.S. did not use its one-sided advantage.
During the Korean War, the U.S. had an arsenal of over 300 atomic bombs with a huge bomber force, versus just a few newly acquired bombs on the Soviet side. Yet Presidents Truman and Eisenhower stifled talk of using nuclear threats to pressure the Russians and Chinese to stop fueling North Korean aggression.
3) Weren’t the two bombing missions fairly easy?
Hardly.
The two bombs had to be transported 6,000 miles to Tinian by sea from the West Coast. The heavy cruiser Indianapolis sped from San Francisco and later Hawaii, unaccompanied through enemy waters, to deliver the components for Little Boy—only to be sunk along with the majority of its crew by a Japanese submarine, just two days after it departed the island.
There was real fear that air crashes might set off the bombs. Safety devices (especially on the more volatile uranium bomb) to keep the bombs inert until minutes before dropping were last-minute improvisations.
The bombing runs from the B-29 bases on the Marianas to Japan were some 3,000 miles round trip. Crashes, navigational errors, turbulent weather, and losses to Japanese flak and fighters were common dangers.
The second atomic bombing mission to Nagasaki nearly ended in disaster. The B-29 (Bockscar) carrying the plutonium bomb took off despite a fuel tank blockage. On arrival, it could not see the aiming point over the primary target of the city of Kokura. The mission’s bombers consequently circled for too long over Kokura, and only belatedly were diverted to the secondary target at Nagasaki.
But it too was likewise obscured with clouds. Finally, Bockscar dropped the bomb 1.5 miles off target. As a result of the delays, mishaps, and mechanical trouble, it could not make it back to its Tinian base or even to the halfway emergency base on Iwo Jima. Instead, Bock’s Car diverted to the newly acquired Okinawa runways—only to run out of gas as it landed.
4. Why did we target the Japanese and not the Germans?
The atomic bomb was designed to be used against Germany, which the Allies initially feared might beat them to nuclear acquisition (although the Japanese were also racing to get a bomb).
The mostly experimental and costly B-29 heavy bomber (the only American plane found to be capable of efficiently carrying a 10,000-pound atomic bomb) was likewise designed to be used against Germany. The two programs together cost well over $4 billion. But the accelerated pace of the European war in 1945 and the delays in the Manhattan Project resulted in the European war concluding before any bomb was ready.
5. Did the bombs just cause more wars and killing—or save lives?
The bombs, as horrible as they were, saved millions of lives in a variety of macabre but often underappreciated ways.
First, no major power in World War II killed more civilians and soldiers at less human cost to itself than the Japanese military. For almost a decade, Japanese troops had killed between 16–20 million Chinese, the vast majority of them civilians. They likely killed another 3–4 million British, Americans, British Commonwealth troops, Pacific Islanders, and non-Chinese Asians.
The Japanese military routinely executed prisoners, used captives for grotesque medical experiments, and starved and gratuitously slaughtered enemy civilians. On average, Japan likely killed over 10,000 of its enemies each day of the war. Any means possible to stop that ruthless killing machine was seen as justified by late 1945.
Second, with the conquest of Okinawa (just 800 miles from Tokyo, rather than the 1,500-mile distance from the bases in the Marianas), General Curtis LeMay, in a few months, envisioned a huge second B-29 base. Okinawa would allow far easier and far more firebombing missions per week, especially given orders for an envisioned 3-4,000 more new B-29s.
More terrifying still, with the end of the European war on May 9, 1945, there were additional plans to transfer some of the 2,000 idle B-17s and B-24s to Okinawa from the European theater.
The British were also considering adding some of their now idle 400-500 heavy Lancaster bombers to the Pacific (“Operation Tiger Force”).
In theory, LeMay and his British counterparts eventually might have been able to unleash well over 6,000 four-engine bombers against Japan. They could have easily doubled or tripled the number of the 200-300,000 Japanese civilians and soldiers already killed by the fire raids.
As a result, after the war, General LeMay insisted that he could have inflicted such conventional destruction on Japan as to have avoided both an invasion and the dropping of the two atomic bombs by either forcing a Japanese surrender or utterly destroying the Japanese ability to resist by burning the entire nation to the ground.
So the two bombs 1) stopped the massive daily Japanese killing of mostly civilians in the Pacific, Asian, and Chinese theaters; 2) ended the fire raids that had proven more deadly than Hiroshima and Nagasaki; 3) prevented a nightmarish invasion of Japan; and 4) in terrible irony, prompted an emerging doctrine of nuclear deterrence, which, as a result, may help explain why the world has neither seen another global war nor another use of nuclear weapons since 1945
Dropping the atomic bombs may have been a terrible decision, but the alternatives were even worse.
END
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM
KING NEWs
| The King Report August 12, 2025 Issue 7553 | Independent View of the News |
| The King Report August 12, 2025 Issue 7553 | Independent View of the News |
| ESUs traded moderately higher in early Nikkei trading on Monday on the usual buying for the expected Monday Rally; plus, this is Expiry Week. After hitting 6429.50 at 22:19 ET, ESUs did an A-B-C decline to a daily low of 6408.50 at 4:05 ET. ESUs then plodded higher, hitting 6426.75 at 8:17 ET. Sellers reappeared; ESUs fell to 6410/00 at 9:31 ET. Dip buying and NYSE opening buying lifted ESUs to 6419.25 at 9:41 ET. ESUs then vacillated wildly with a slight upward bias until they broke lower at 10:22 ET. ESUs fell to a daily low of 6406.75 at 10:48 ET. After a modest bounce, ESUs completed a double bottom at 11:09 ET. Aggressive buying appeared; ESUs jumped to a daily high of 6431.50 at 12:10 ET. A professional dump then appeared because the S&P 500 Index hit 6407.25 but no enthusiastic buying appeared.ESUs sank to a daily low of 6387.50 at 15:56 ET. A desperate and very blatant manipulation then forced ESUs to 6401.75 at 16:00 ET. Astute players realize something has changed in the equity market.Despite Tesla’s 5.13% rally, the NY Fang+ Index was negative in early NYSE trading and did not turn solidly positive until after the European close.Positive aspects of previous sessionThere was a Noon Balloon; but that was the only significant rally.Tesla rallied sharply.Negative aspects of previous sessionStocks declined sharply after the Noon Balloon.There is a new dynamic in the equity market; and it appears to be organic sellers.The S&P 500 Index could not hold 6400.Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionWhat is spooking some big equity players?First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: DownPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6381.59Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6407.25; 6364.06What would happen to the price of gold if demand was relatively stable and out soared? What will happen to the price of cryptos if quantum computers start producing cryptos much faster than now?Google claims that its Sycamore quantum computer can process the same information that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer, Frontier, more than 47 years to complete in just a little over six seconds… (That could be beaucoup Bitcoins!)https://www.techtarget.com/searchcio/tip/Quantum-computer-vs-supercomputer-Key-differencesToday – Due to the conflict within the Fed, the July CPI Report has enhanced significance. A bad report could kill the expected September rate cut. Plus, as noted above, there is tone change in the equity market; and it appears to be organic sellers. As some point institutions and big hedge funds will stop playing the momentum game and unload into retail and less savvy traders (Patsies).With history on their side, including both valuations and trading patterns, it appears that some big players are exiting stocks before they get caught in a bubble burst and/or fall classic collapse. Be prepared!The usual suspects will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, a TACO Tuesday Rally, and the Expiry Week manipulation. But an ugly CPI could thwart trader schemes. ‘The times are a changin!’ESUs are -1.50; NQUs are -1.25; Dec AU is -1.60; and USUs are -6/32 at 20:17 ET. Trump extending the pause on China tariffs for 90 days is NOT helping ESUs or NQUs.Expected Economic Data: July NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.9; July CPI 0.2% m/m & 2.8% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 3.0% y/y; Jul Federal Budget -$150.0B; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 10:00 ET on US economy, KC Fed Pres Schmid 10:30 ET on Monetary Policy & Economic OutlookS&P Index 50-day MA: 6187; 100-day MA: 5894; 150-day MA: 5907; 200-day MA: 5916DJIA 50-day MA: 43,690; 100-day MA: 42,382; 150-day MA: 42,739; 200-day MA: 42,914(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6373.45 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6021.44 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6434.59 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close below 6356.67 triggers a sell signalFox: Trump federalizing DC police department, deploying National Guardhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-takes-control-metro-police-deploys-national-guard-take-washington-crimeTrump invoked the D.C. Home Rule Act, which placed the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department under direct federal control, and he deployed the National Guard.@MacFarlaneNews: Del Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) says Trump’s federalization of DC police is “an historic assault on D.C. home rule, is a counterproductive, escalatory seizure of D.C.’s resources to use for purposes not supported by D.C. residents…” (Dems explicitly support crime, slam law & order!)Trump floats D.C.-style crackdown in other major cities“You look at Chicago, how bad it is, you look at Los Angeles, how bad it is. We have other cities that are very bad,” he said. “New York has a problem. And then you have, of course, Baltimore and Oakland. We don’t even mention that anymore. They’re so far gone. We’re not going to let it happen. We’re not going to lose our cities over this.”…https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/trump-floats-dc-style-crackdown-other-major-citiesDC police commander suspended, accused of changing crime statistics (lowered violent crime)https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-police-commander-suspended-crime-statistics/3959566/Dershowitz Denied Food in Martha’s Vineyard Over His Political ViewsMiskevich has thrilled the left by venting his hate for Dershowitz and anyone who holds his political or legal views… Dershowitz is entirely in the right here, and the treatment that he received was outrageous. What is chilling is how hate is now celebrated on the left as a perverse type of virtue signaling. We have seen how the left has embraced blacklisting, an abuse that was once associated with the McCarthy period… The problem is that feeding on hate will never satiate people; they simply want more servings. That insatiable appetite is destroying this country and now Miskevich is contributing to it one pierogi at a time.https://jonathanturley.org/2025/08/09/no-pierogi-for-you-dershowitz-denied-food-in-marthas-vineyard-over-his-political-views/Trump Taps EJ. Antoni to Lead BLS after Firing Predecessor – BBG 18:42 ET | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Democrat Whistleblower Says “Unethical” Schiff Leaked Classified Info In “Treasonous” Russiagate Plot
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 12:20 PM
Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,
A veteran career intelligence officer who spent more than a decade working for Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee repeatedly warned the FBI—beginning in 2017—that then-Rep. Adam Schiff had personally approved leaking classified information to smear then-President Donald Trump over the now-debunked Russiagate hoax.
Schiff became the face of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative, shamelessly reading the discredited Steele dossier into the congressional record and falsely claiming to have seen intelligence proving Trump’s guilt—claims that were pure fiction.
According to JusttheNews.com, these new bombshell allegations are detailed in FBI memos that Director Kash Patel has now turned over to Congress, exposing Schiff’s brazen use of intelligence as a political weapon.
The FBI 302 interview reports obtained by Just the News state the intelligence staffer — a Democrat by party affiliation who described himself as a friend to both Schiff, now a California senator, and former Republican House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes — considered the classified leaking to be “unethical,” “illegal,” and “treasonous,” but was told not to worry about it because Schiff believed he would be spared prosecution under the Constitution’s speech and debate clause.
No publicly-disclosed opinion from the Attorney General or the Solicitor General can be found making that determination as a matter of law.
But officials told Just the News that DOJ officials showed little interest in pursuing Schiff when the allegations were brought to them years ago, citing the very same excuse the lawmaker had offered.
A 2023 FBI interview proved pivotal.
The whistleblower described meetings where Schiff authorized leaks calibrated to discredit Trump, going so far as to declare the leaks would help lead to an indictment:
When working in this capacity, [redacted staffer’s name] was called to an all-staff meeting by SCHIFF. In this meeting, SCHIFF stated the group would leak classified information which was derogatory to President of the United States DONALD J. TRUMP. SCHIFF stated the information would be used to indict President TRUMP.
According to the whistleblower he “stated this would be illegal and, upon hearing his concerns, unnamed members of the meeting reassured that they would not be caught leaking classified information.”
Unfortunately, the leaks no longer fall within the statute of limitations, effectively shielding Schiff from prosecution. Meanwhile, as we’ve previously reported, he’s recently faced referral to the DOJ for suspected mortgage fraud, making this pattern of ethical lapses impossible to ignore.
Patel deserves credit for releasing the documents that make clear how intelligence and law enforcement have been wielded as blunt political instruments. “For years, certain officials used their positions to selectively leak classified information to shape political narratives,” Patel told JusttheNews.com. “It was all done with one purpose: to weaponize intelligence and law enforcement for political gain. Those abuses eroded public trust in our institutions.”
Patel added, “The FBI will now lead the charge, with our partners at DOJ, and Congress will have the chance to uncover how political power may have been weaponized and to restore accountability.”
It is now impossible to ignore how Adam Schiff hijacked classified information and congressional authority to orchestrate political warfare from the heart of government. The only winners are the cynics who bet on Washington’s inability to police itself. For anybody paying attention, the scale and brazenness of these abuses demand not just censure, but real accountability.
The truth about Adam Schiff’s betrayal is finally out—he weaponized classified intelligence to destroy Trump.
END
The left are nuts!!
Democrats Go Into Meltdown Mode As Trump Launches Washington DC Takeover
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025 – 01:20 PM
The 68-square-mile federal district of Washington DC is often excluded from lists of various US cities and their crime rates due to its unusual status. DC itself has long suffered from high crime and is regularly among the top twenty most crime ridden cities in the US. In 2023, the city’s homicide rate and overall violent crime rate spiked to highs not seen since 1997 at the height of a gang related murder spree.
Democrats argue that crime has been falling since 2024 and love to cite stats over the past year without taking into account the bigger picture. Yes, DC murders have fallen by 26% in that time, but that’s after they nearly doubled from 2019 to 2023. Murder, theft and mass looting continues to pose a threat to the DC area and lets not forget that close neighbor Baltimore is one of the worst cities for crime in the entire nation. In 2024, Baltimore was named the deadliest city in America, surpassing Memphis and Detroit (both Democrat run cities).
For decades Washington has remained a Democrat run town. Regardless of any Republican presence in the White House, DC stands as a progressive citadel controlled by deeply leftist bureaucrats. Since the establishment of the Home Rule Act in 1973, the district has not had a single conservative mayor and the town has suffered greatly under Democratic management.
The capital is notorious for its low prosecution and conviction rates. DC only prosecutes 33% of total arrests and many criminals easily avoid prison time. Democrat politicians running most of America’s largest cities have created an environment in which perpetrators have little fear of punishment and convicts are often released back onto the streets to become repeat offenders.
To be fair, many GOP presidents have dismissed the problems in DC as frequently as Democrat presidents. Donald Trump is the first to take action since home rule was established.
Trump’s announcement that he will be instituting a federal surge within the capital and taking control of local law enforcement has triggered a furious meltdown among progressive leaders, activists and media pundits. They claim that this is just the beginning of a larger martial law takeover of cities across the US.
Because of Washington’s 92% progressive population (and large minority population), the response from locals is unsurprisingly frantic. Business owners seem optimistic about a potential improvement in enforcement but others are not so enthused.
The question no Democrat is asking is, what level of crime is acceptable for the nation’s capital? How many murders, assaults, rapes and looted stores should be tolerated? They say crime is falling while overlooking the jump in 2023. They say that Trump’s elimination of home rule in DC is not the answer. So, what is the answer?
Trump asserts that DC should be setting an example as one of the safest places in the country; a perfectly logical conclusion considering the US capital has been an embarrassment for many years. It’s also important to take into consideration that Trump’s presidency, nestled in one of the most hostile areas of the US for conservatives, could be at risk.
Trump’s actions may be designed to prevent any future French Revolution-like attacks on the White House. Leftists have been using mob intimidation with impunity since 2020 and the local political leadership of DC is only going to encourage such behavior going forward.
The Democrat response? “Trump’s trying to take attention away from the Epstein files…” In other words, anytime Trump does anything they don’t like they will play the only card they have to play, which is to divert discourse by mentioning Epstein. Keep in mind, the Democrats had years to release any information they obtained on the Epstein case and they never did. Now that Trump is in office, suddenly this is the only issue they’re interested in talking about.
The bottom line is that Washington DC is a problem area of the country and always has been. It should be a shining example of national pride, but it’s a disaster instead. Trump is not wrong that the capital needs to be cleaned up and his solution will probably achieve that result quickly.
That said, are Democrats right to fear a wider martial law response in other US cities? Is this simply a test run by Trump to pave the way for similar actions in LA or Chicago? Is martial law something that conservative voters would largely support? Or, is this narrative simply fear mongering by leftists who are trying to prevent Trump from successfully restructuring DC while making them look bad in the process?
It’s unlikely that the majority of Americans, including conservative Americans, would support full scale or long term martial law (Democrats would likely support it, just not under Trump).
It is, however, fair to point out that the mismanagement and activism of Democrat leaders in US cities has made the country so despondent and angry that the populace might just cheer for a short term federal takeover if it happened. The political left doesn’t seem to understand the level of rage they have created, or the joy that the public would feel seeing incompetent Democrats thrown out of their offices and removed from local power.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO
“We’re In The 3rd Inning Of The Global Currency Death Spiral” – Rubino Sees Gold Topping $10,000
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning concerning Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” making its way through Congress and Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The Big Beautiful Bill is going to explode the debt by $20 trillion in the next 10 years, and the credit downgrade has people like billionaire investment fund founder Ray Dalio worries about money printing to pay the $1.5 trillion in interest on federal debt.
Rubino warns, “The story with Moody’s downgrade isn’t that they did it, that they moved the US from triple A (Aaa) to one notch below (Aa1). It’s kind of insane that a government with 125% of GDP has an investment rating at all. Right?”
” They are clearly baking a gigantic currency crisis into the cake. Ray Dalio gets it right.
The rating agencies excuse or explanation for why the US still has an investment grade credit rating is that a country with a printing press can never default because it can just print enough money out of thin air to pay interest on its bonds, and it can do that forever.
So, it’s triple A credit, which does not make any sense at all because if you just print a lot of money out of thin air to pay your debts, then your currency goes down in value, and you are paying back your creditors with depreciating currency, which is a form of default.
The credit rating agencies are only looking at one kind of default where we just stop paying.
They are not looking at paying with cheaper currency year after year, and we stiff our creditors that way.
That’s why you don’t want to own Treasury bonds.
They are not going to stop paying interest, but the interest will not cover inflation going forward. So, you will have a net real loss until they just crater, and then you will have a massive capital loss.”
On top of that, interest rates have been rising and not falling. The 30-year mortgage rate is now just under 7% again. Rubino says,
“We went back up to unsustainable interest rates really quickly. . . .
The Fed has promised a couple of rate cuts this year, and for interest rates to go up while the Fed is inferring easing means we are risking losing control of the financial markets.
If the Fed can’t control interest rates, we are monumentally screwed as a financial system. That’s kind of what we are headed for now.
In the US, interest rates are going back up, but if you want to look at an extreme case, look at Japan. They don’t just have 30-year bonds, they have 40-year and 50-year bonds and those are cratering, which is to say the interest rates on those bonds are spiking. Long term Japanese bonds used to be 0%. Now, they are 3% and change. . . . That change is huge.
So, Japan, the US, Europe, the UK and China, all of these big countries are basically making the same mistakes, and they are all headed in the same direction.
We are in the early stage of a currency death spiral where interest rates start to go up and the government can’t control that and then their debt goes parabolic . . . and this goes until everything breaks down.
We are in the third inning of that game, and the last couple of innings are going to be hair raising.
There are going to be currency crises, which we have never seen in our lifetimes. . . . It will be fun times if you are a gold bug.”
Rubino thinks gold will go up in price way over $10,000 per ounce, and he also expects silver to take off too. Rubino says,
“Silver is a great story because it is an industrial metal that is in deficit. Industrial uses are taking more silver off the markets than what they are producing, and that is going to lead to a shortage.
Even if you don’t look at silver as a monetary metal, the industrial demand makes it a buy right now.”
Rubino does not think the US will be in a civil war, but Europe is going authoritarian, and civil war is most likely there if Russia does not blow them up first. Rubino thinks America will do better than Europe, but we will still have trouble, chaos and a financial reset to work through.
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 5.20.25.
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John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com.
SEE YOU TOMORROW
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