We Now Have the Problem Everyone Wants

In the last five years, gold has done this:

And so far this year, GDX (an ETF that owns most of the large gold miners), has done this:

As a result, we now have the problem that every investor wants: serious paper profits that we’d like to protect. But how do we do that?

Is it time to sell some physical metal?

No. Despite the occasional correction, gold’s bull run will likely persist as long as governments continue to inflate their currencies. And that process is just kicking into high gear. Note the US government’s debt going parabolic:

So…be right and sit tight, stackers. The coming monetary turmoil will send a tsunami of capital into safe havens like gold and silver, and their prices will soar from here.

What about mining stocks?

If gold rises over time, so will the typical gold miner. But stocks are volatile, and if gold corrects (which it will multiple times in the coming decade’s bull market), stocks will correct harder.

The question then becomes, how likely is a correction in the near term? Let’s look at the factors that might affect those odds.

Gold seasonality

Demand for gold —and therefore its near-term price action — is partially seasonal because Asians like to give gold jewelry as wedding gifts, and they typically have their weddings in the Spring. So jewelers buy their inventory in advance, which boosts demand and therefore prices in autumn and winter. Then, in late spring, the jewelers stop buying, which causes the dreaded “summer doldrums” and leads traders to mutter things like “sell in May and go away.”

According to the above chart, gold has made it through the summer doldrums in pretty good shape and is now entering its typically strong season. So seasonality says, Don’t worry, keep buying.

Consolidation

Gold has been “consolidating” for the past eight or so months. This is a process by which people with embedded profits (known as “weak hands”) sell to buyers (“strong hands”) who have no interest in selling at the current price. Consolidations continue until the weak hands are exhausted, after which the market, bereft of sellers, starts a new upleg. So…the gold chart looks good. No reason to sell here.

Federal Reserve easing

President Trump really, really wants lower interest rates, and he’s been publicly berating Fed governors over their failure to deliver. Now it looks like they’ll capitulate and start cutting in September, with Polymarket odds of a 25 bps cut at 69%:

It’s worth noting that those Fed rate cuts will occur with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target range. One important measure, the core services PPI, just spiked:

For monetary policy to ease while inflation remains above target implies that the US has given up on maintaining the dollar’s purchasing power. For what that means, see Portrait of a Crack-Up Boom, in Four Charts.

The takeaway:Monetary policy is about to become recklessly favorable for gold. Still no reason to sell.

Just one big problem

So far, the stars seem to have aligned for gold, and mining stock profit-taking seems unwarranted.

If only the “AI-driven” stock market weren’t so crazy.

Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: ‘It better be different this time’

(Business Insider) – Stock-market bulls convinced of the power of AI to transform the economy often shrug off comparisons to the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago. The real profits are already showing up, unlike in the early days of the internet boom — so it is different this time, the thinking goes.

But Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has a message for these investors: “It better be different this time.”

Hartnett, who has often expressed skepticism of the market’s bull run over the last few years, shared a head-turning chart that highlights just how optimistic investors have become about the impact AI will have. It shows the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio, which measures the total market cap of the index’s constituents compared to their total assets minus liabilities.

The valuation measure is at a record high of 5.3, topping the 5.1 level seen in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

Pretty much every other equity valuation metric is also flashing red. So if past is still prologue, a stock market crash is a very real possibility in the year ahead. And that could hit the miners hard. In the last serious stock market crash, during the Great Recession of the 2000s, GDX fell by 70%:

Conclusion

Stackers should keep stacking, with the goal of owning massive amounts of real money when fiat finally dies. Mining stock investors, however, might want to consider strategies for protecting some of their gains when and if history catches up with the AI stock bubble.

Tomorrow’s post will present some ideas.

2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE

ALASDAIR MACLEOD…

What Putin told Trump

The advantage of a private meeting between two leaders is that they cut the BS and increase mutual understanding. A solution to differences becomes more likely, but far from certain.

Alasdair MacleodAug 17∙Paid

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

What Putin told Trump

The advantage of a private meeting between two leaders is that they cut the BS and increase mutual understanding. A solution to differences becomes more likely, but far from certain.

A map of the sea

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

President Trump has been adamant that he could stop the war in Ukraine. But at every turn he has been frustrated by his own officials at one remove who are doggedly committed to defeating Russia. One remove, because it is the deep state officials who advise Trump and his secretaries of state: the hidden Victoria Nuland lookalikes who actually wield executive power.

They are adept at frightening politicians into pursuing their desired course. They have also roped in their British and European counterparts into working their plans into the minds of their politicians. As the Ukraine war progressed, Putin was demonised as a ruthless despot intent on grabbing all of Ukraine, and who knows what country would be next?

This is why Alaska was a much-needed reality check between the two leaders bearing ultimate responsibility.

We know where Putin stands — he wants the Russian-speaking Oblasts and Crimea, and he wants cast-iron assurances that the rest of Ukraine will remain neutral and not join NATO. Given the perfidy of America’s deep state, presumably NATO’s limitation would have to be laid down in a treaty, co-signed by Russia, America, NATO, Britain, and the EU.

If he doesn’t get that, then for Putin the threat of NATO continues, and Ukraine is just the start of a continuing conflict with the West.

Trump’s position is more complex. Instead of making some sort of deal with Putin, he came away with an understanding of his position. Hence the shortened press conference seemingly led by Putin, and an uncharacteristically subdued US president. While he is clear in his own mind that he was always right to get the US out of the long-running Ukraine disaster, he will now consult his officials. But they are still on a virulent anti-Russia mission and will try to dissuade Trump from handing Putin a victory.

For the sake of stopping this needless conflict and the US deep state’s policy of merely regarding foreign lives as utterly expendable, Trump needs to act as a stateman, particularly if he is to gain the Nobel prize he is said to covet. He should tell NATO that America is withdrawing support for the conflict, and advise Zelensky accordingly. NATO’s involvement then becomes a UK and European concern only.

Zelensky would then have no alternative but to agree to Russia’s terms concerning the eastern Oblasts and Crimea. With its position becoming untenable, NATO will fold. Otherwise, Russia will almost certainly take Odessa and run their territory up to the boundary with Moldova, cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea entirely.

The larger picture

Undoubtedly, the US deep state knows but doesn’t accept that it is losing a battle against Russia and China for geopolitical control. Ukraine is one battle and Taiwan may be the next. But this misses the point, which is that the Asian hegemons are progressing economically as well as geopolitically, while the US is regressing. Nowhere is this more obvious than the extraordinary technological progress — Russia with her devastating hypersonic missiles, and China with her communications and robotic technologies.

The days when nations could always be controlled through pump-and-dump debt operations or the threat of the CIA’s regime changes are no longer as effective. The combination of Asian SCO and wider BRICS members, fully 70% of the world’s population, are all benefiting from Chinese investment. It has become a rapidly industrialising force separated from the US and other G7 nations, while the former sinks into an economic and credit crisis.

For the US deep state, the stakes are too important to just submit to this reality. It is dreaming up other obstacles to Russia’s progress. Iran and the Balkans are two obvious theatres Putin will be monitoring. Instead of accepting the inevitable, Peter Sellers’ “Dr Strangelove” is becoming worryingly prophetic.

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS

4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 236

5. COMMODITY REPORT.

ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.26 PTS OR 0.85%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 93.22 PTS OR 0.37%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 336.00 PTS OR 0.77% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23%

//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1786 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1817/ Oil DOWN TO 63.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.89 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1786 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1817 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1786 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1817

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 93.22 PTS OR 0.37%

2. Nikkei closed UP 336.00 PTS OR 0.77%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.82/ EURO FALLS TO 1.1685 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.576//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.42…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7557/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.569 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.313%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.413

3j Gold at $3347.50 Silver at: 38.11 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 22 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.36

3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.42// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.576% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8069 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9429 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.293 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.894 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.740 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.88

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6910 UP 1 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.439 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.960 DOWN 2 PTS

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Dip Ahead Of Trump-Zelensky Meeting As Jackson Hole Looms

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 08:37 AM

US equity futures are down a touch, after closing in the red on Friday having tagged a new all time high earlier in the day, with small caps outperforming to start the week. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% after the benchmarks closed last week near an all-time high, with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and his European allies arriving at the White House today to find out what US President Donald Trump committed to at his summit with Vladimir Putin. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are all lower with Semis and Cyclicals lagging Defensives. European stocks also fell 0.2%. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens and the USD catches a bid. Commodities are higher with strength from crude and precious metals. Cryptocurrencies retreated. This is a light macro data week with a focus on Retailer earnings and geopolitics, though the latter is unlikely to move US markets, into Friday’s Powell presentation at Jackson Hole.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.07%, Alphabet +0.09%, Apple -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Nvidia -0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Tesla -0.6%).

Dayforce Inc. (DAY) jumps 26% after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider.
Soho House & Co. (SHCO) rises 16% after a group of investors agreed to take the company private in a deal that gives the members’ club an enterprise value of about $2.7 billion.
TeraWulf (WULF) climbs 4% after saying said Google has agreed to boost its stake in the company to about 14% from around 8% as the Bitcoin miner and data center operator continues to expand its Lake Mariner data center campus in Western New York.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) rises 6% after an announcement that the firm received FDA approval for Tonmya to treat fibromyalgia in adults.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) rises 2%, set to extend the 12% rally on Friday, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and other investors bought shares in the health insurer.

Traders will be on edge today, following the latest developments in the White House where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his allies will meet with President Trump to find out what the US President committed to at his summit with Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg Economics chief geo-economics analyst Jennifer Welch says questions remain about what the US and Russian leaders discussed and how much progress was made toward ending the war.

Besides today, traders are also staying cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole later this week, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech keenly watched for guidance on a September interest-rate cut. Investor expectations for monetary easing next month fluctuated in recent days, pricing in more than a quarter-point cut at one point, amid mixed signals on inflation and the strength of US consumers.

Under a scenario where the Fed begins cutting later this year, combined with resilient corporate earnings, “the S&P 500 is likely to maintain its medium-term uptrend,” noted Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. “Nevertheless, caution is warranted in the face of unexpected political shocks, the risk of renewed trade tensions, and historically stretched valuations.” As a reminder, BofA’s Michael Hartnett sees a dovish Jackson Hole as a sell-the-news event.

Elsewhere, Wall Street will also get a closer look at how American consumers are holding up in the early days of Trump’s tariff regime. Some of the biggest retailers report earnings in coming days, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot. So far, S&P 500 firms have posted a much better-than-expected increase in quarterly profits, while margins have proved more resilient to tariffs than feared, according to Goldman’s David Kostin.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed with gains in utility and health care shares offset by losses for banks and miners. Vestas Wind Systems jumps the most in three years as new US tax credit rules were better than feared, while Novo Nordisk gained after its obesity drug Wegovy won US FDA approval to treat a liver disease. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Vestas Wind Systems shares rose 17%, the most in three years, after guidance issued by the Treasury Department and IRS on tax credits related to clean energy projects was deemed by analysts to be far less onerous than feared
Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 5% after the Danish drugmaker’s Wegovy obesity drug won US FDA accelerated approval to treat a serious form of liver disease, beating rival Eli Lilly to the US market for the condition
Boozt gains as much as 11%, more than offsetting Friday’s 5.3% earnings-triggered losses, after SEB raised its recommendation on the Swedish online retail group to buy from hold, saying the “worst may now be behind” it
Dr Martens shares gain as much as 11%, the most in two months, after Peel Hunt raised the recommendation to buy from add, saying shares have not yet factored in the company’s growth potential
Valneva gains as much as 13% and reaches its highest level since 2023 after the French company said Canada has granted marketing authorization for the firm’s chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ in individuals aged 12 years and older
Pantheon Resources shares rise as much as 17%, the most since January, after the oil and gas explorer reported that it has found hydrocarbons at the Dubhe-1 appraisal well
Echo Investment gained as much as 5.6%, hitting an eight-year high, after the Polish real estate developer sold a portfolio of residential properties to TAG Immobilien for €565 million
Commerzbank falls as much as 4.5% after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation on the German lender to hold from buy, with analysts saying its valuation looks “stretched” after shares rallied 200% over the past year
Cranswick shares fall after a newspaper report alleging animal cruelty at one of the meat supplier’s sites in eastern England; the company says in a statement on its website it was “horrified” to see “unaccaptable historic footage”

In the UK, money markets trimmed bets that the Bank of England will cut rates this year, as signs of faster inflation and a more resilient economy reduce the case for more easing. Swaps are implying a less-than-50% chance of a quarter-point cut by December. A reduction was fully priced earlier this month.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by gains in India on government plans to cut consumption taxes, and in China on optimism over easing trade tensions with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%, with Recruit Holdings and Toyota among the key drivers. A gauge of Shanghai-listed stocks closed at its highest level in a decade, as local investors continued to pour in cash. Stocks also advanced in Australia, Taiwan, and Japan. In contrast, shares fell in South Korea, weighed by a selloff in chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Donald Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil following his weekend meeting with Vladimir Putin. Buzz is building over mainland Chinese shares, which have underperformed Hong Kong stocks this year amid concerns over trade and the health of the economy. Shares in India jumped after Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech, which included plans to cut the consumption tax for the first time since it was introduced nearly a decade ago. Consumer electronics and auto makers led gains.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The kiwi is the best-performing G-10 currency, rising 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries slightly richer across the curve, following similar gains across European bonds as investors weigh potential impact of Monday’s political talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week. Treasuries’ Monday gains were concentrated at the longer end of the curve, diverging from August’s steepening. The two-year yield slipped one basis point to 3.74%, while the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.29%. Money markets are pricing in around an 80% likelihood of a quarter-point cut next month and at least one more by the end of the year. Treasury yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s spread flatter by around 1.2bp as 10-year outperforms. In Europe, 30-year German yields drop around 3.5bp with the German 2s10s spread tighter by almost 3bp on the day in a wider bull flattening move. The long-end of the German curve outperforms, partially retracing Friday’s move to the highest yields since 2011. Duration events this week also include 20-year bond sale Wednesday and long-end TIPS auction Thursday.

“Close focus for many falls on moves in bond markets, and notably on the slope of the yield curves,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole will therefore be important in showing how he balances the focus on inflation versus growth and labor markets.”

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 0.6% to near $66.20 a barrel ahead of a meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. European natural gas futures are also up more than 1%. Spot gold rises about $13. Bitcoin falls more than 2% amid a retreat in major cryptocurrencies which pushed the market’s total capitalization under $4 billion after it scaled record peaks last week. Bitcoin trades just under $115k; Ethereum sinks below USD 4.3k, and underperforms vs peers, even as news hits that both Strategy at Bitminer were busy adding to their BTC/ETH treasuries, respectively.

Today’s economic data slate includes New York services business activity (8:30am) and NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman at 12:45pm, speaking on Bloomberg TV. On Friday at 10am Chair Powell speaks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on the subject of economic outlook and framework review

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.29%
VIX +0.7 points at 15.82
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 120.49
euro -0.2% at $1.1684
WTI crude +0.8% at $63.28/barrel

Top Overnight News

Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his European allies will meet Donald Trump in Washington today. The US is expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, while Ukraine will seek details of Trump’s offer of possible US security guarantees, according to a person familiar. BBG
Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro slammed India’s Russian oil purchases as “opportunistic and deeply corrosive” in an FT op-ed. FT
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has reportedly said that he believes AI could be in a bubble, comparing market conditions to those of the dotcom boom in the 1990s. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he’s quoted as saying. CNBC
China’s capital outflows hit a record $58.3 billion in July, driven by purchases of Hong Kong assets by mainland investors. BBG
China’s exports of rare earth products — including magnets — extended their recovery in July, months after Beijing threatened a disruptive global shortage by crimping supplies to fight a trade clash with Trump. Shipments jumped last month to reach their highest since January. BBG
The PBOC is signaling it may delay broad easing measures such as interest rate or RRR cuts until later this year. BBG
India’s government will slash the consumption tax it charges consumers and businesses by October, a top official said on Friday, hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced sweeping tax reforms to boost the economy in the face of a trade conflict with Washington. RTRS
An Air Canada union defied a government order to return to work, forcing the airline to delay plans to restart operations over the weekend. The carrier now expects to resume flights at 4 p.m. Toronto time today. BBG
Thoma Bravo is in discussions to buy Dayforce, people familiar said. It has an enterprise value of more than $9 billion. BBG
Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

Russia-Ukraine: US Headlines

Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine Headlines

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

Russia-Ukraine: Russia Headlines

Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

Russia-Ukraine: European Headlines

European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

Trade/Tariffs

US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India’s oil lobby is funding Russia’s war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.
German government spokesperson states that the US’s role in potential Ukraine security guarantees will be discussed in Washington today. Chancellor Merz is among the attendees at tonight’s Washington meeting.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB. Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.

Top Asian News

Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
India’s federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.
China’s Commerce Ministry is to extend the investigation into EU dairy products to 21st February 2026.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened modestly lower across the board, and the risk tone continued to deteriorate as the morning progressed, with all major indices falling into negative territory; currently at lows. European sectors are split down the middle, in quiet trade. Utilities takes the top spot, joined closely by Real Estate and Health Care; the latter has been buoyed by upside in heavy-weight Novo Nordisk (+5.2%). The Co. benefits after receiving accelerated US FDA approval for liver disease MASH. Elsewhere, Vestas Wind Systems (+16%) gains after the US provided new guidance on renewable tax credits, essentially clarifying that projects can qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill’s safe-harbor provision if they show physical work and not just early spending, to then access the Inflation Reduction Act credit.

UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
ECB’s Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB’s policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

DXY initially traded rangebound after last Friday’s mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. However, EUR-led weakness led to saw some modest upside in the Dollar index, to make a fresh peak at 98.06 (more below). Do note that there were comments from Fed’s Daly over the weekend, who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she noted that they have to be ahead to not be behind. DXY resides in a 97.78-98.06 range, vs Friday’s 97.72-98.21 parameter. DXY today sees its 50 DMA at 98.08.
EUR takes a breather from recent advances and trades on either side of 1.1700 with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky. On this front, “European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today: 1) pin down more details on possible US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the possible trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia. EUR/USD resides in a current 1.1672-1.1716 range with the 50 DMA at 1.1637.
USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level overnight with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks. USD/JPY trades in a current 147.06-147.58 range, well within Friday’s 146.74-147.89 range, with the 50 DMA at 146.54 and the 200 DMA at 149.25.
GBP continues to struggle for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday’s inflation data. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3532-1.3565 range.
Antipodeans remain afloat despite the firmer dollar and downward tilt in risk sentiment, and losses across most base metals, with traders also eyeing the widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week. There is nothing obvious to explain the resilience in the non-US dollars.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).

Fixed Income

A morning of modest gains for the complex. Driven higher by the apprehensive risk tone after the fallout of the Alaska summit. In brief, no ceasefire was agreed upon, but we did see Russian President Putin say that they would be willing to freeze the southern front lines in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing from certain regions. USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks so far, at a 111-26+ peak. If the move continues, then we look to the 111-30+ peak from last Friday before the figure and then last week’s peak at 112-14.
Bunds are firmer, in-fitting with USTs. Reacting to the risk tone and more so than USTs at this moment in time, perhaps as the geopolitical equation directly adds in European leaders today. As it stands, Bunds have notched a 129.18 peak with upside of almost 40 ticks at most. While relatively pronounced, we remain some way shy of 129.62 from last Friday and then the 130.06 peak from last week.
Gilts again, echoes of the above, but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The UK is also exposed to the evening’s meetings as PM Starmer is in attendance. Into the meeting, Gilts have eased ever so slightly from a 91.32 peak where they notched gains of just over 20 ticks. As is the case with peers, this has stalled before Friday’s 91.68 peak before the figure and then last week’s 92.37 best.

Commodities

Oil was little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today. More recently, oil prices have caught a slight bid, and currently reside at the top-end of recent ranges. Nothing really behind the latest bout of upside, but potentially as traders digest the weekend’s Russia/Ukraine developments. WTI currently resides in a USD 61.65-62.52/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.47-66.31/bbl range.
Two-way trade across precious metals and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with few catalysts outside of geopolitics. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading on either side of its 50 DMA (3,349.60/oz) in a USD 3,323.68-3,358.49/oz range.
Copper eked out marginal gains overnight amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region. However, dollar strength and a worsening of sentiment in the European morning prompted the base metals complex to trade mostly in negative territory. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,727.55-9,770.30/t range.
Indian Oil Corp Exec says processed 24% Russian oil in June quarter (prev. 14% in March quarter)
UBS reiterates its end-2025 and March 2026 Brent crude oil view to USD 62/bbl, on higher supply front South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will continue talks with the IAEA.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports a heavy rain event caused the release at 236k bpd, Joliet Illinois Refinery.
Hungarian Foreign Minister says Russian oil flows to Hungary are halted after the Ukrainian attack on pipeline transformer station.
NHC says Category 4 Hurricane Erin located just east of the Southeast Bahamas; Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the US Eastern Seaboard this week.
Ukraine’s foreign minister states that Hungary has made efforts to sustain its dependence on Russian oil.

Geopolitics

Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.
Israel PM Netanyahu has “recently intensified his meetings with close associates in preparation for the possibility of early elections”, via Al Jazeera citing sources.
“Hamas has received a new offer from the mediators for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and is expected to respond to it today”, according to Israeli journalist citing Qatar’s Al-Arabi TV.
“A diplomatic source involved in the negotiations between Egypt and Qatar and Hamas told me that in light of the fact that there was not enough progress in yesterday’s talks in Cairo”, according to Axios’ Ravid.
US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.
Chinese Foreign Ministry on US President Trump’s comments on China, says will not allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China in any way.

US Event Calendar

10:00 am: Aug NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33

Central Banks (All Times ET):

12:45 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on BTV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we arrive at a new week, the focus is still on Ukraine this morning, as the world reacts to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska last Friday. The main headline was that no deal was reached on a ceasefire, but multiple outlets reported that Putin wanted Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and he offered Trump a freeze across the rest of the frontline in return. Moreover, Trump himself posted that he now wanted to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.”

After the summit, Trump then spoke with European leaders, although the joint statement from the European leaders made clear that “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory.” Then today, Trump is meeting President Zelensky at 13:15 ET, before a multilateral leading with European leaders at 15:00 ET. That group will include UK PM Starmer, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz and Commission President Von der Leyen. In his post, Trump also said that “If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin.”

Clearly, we’ll have to wait and see what happens today, but Trump was saying yesterday morning that there had been “BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA. STAY TUNED!” And separately, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said on CNN that “We got to an agreement that the US and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine”, which is the NATO article which says that an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all. Trump has also been calling on Zelensky to make a deal, and just a few hours ago, he posted that Zelensky “can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.” However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed expectations of a deal yesterday, saying that “We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement.”

Aside from the geopolitical situation, markets find themselves in an interesting position as we begin the week. On the one hand, there’s been incredible buoyancy across risk assets that’s seen valuations become increasingly stretched. Indeed, the S&P 500 hit another record last Thursday, whilst US IG credit spreads ended last week at their tightest level since 1998. But at the same time, futures are pricing in over 100bps of Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, even with inflation widely expected to pick up given the tariffs. So that’s contributed to a significant curve steepening, with the US 5s30s curve ending last week at its steepest since 2021. And long-end yields have continued to creep higher more broadly, with the German 30yr yield reaching its highest since 2011 on Friday, at 3.35%. So those fiscal concerns from earlier in the year haven’t gone away either.

Overnight in Asia, that risk-on move has continued for the most part. For instance, Japan’s Nikkei (+0.77%) is currently on track for a record high, the Shanghai Comp (+1.18%) is on course for its highest close since 2015, whilst the CSI 300 (+1.50%) is on track for its highest close since July 2022. South Korea is the exception, as the KOSPI is down -1.16% this morning amidst losses among chipmakers. But futures in the US and Europe are pointing towards modest gains too, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and the DAX (+0.16%) both up this morning.

In terms of the week ahead, the main focus away from the White House will be the Fed’s symposium at Jackson Hole, where we’ll hear central bankers including Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Bear in mind that the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole has often been used to send important policy signals, and it was last year that Powell said the “time has come for policy to adjust” before they then cut rates at the next meeting for the first time since the pandemic. This time around, we don’t have the full agenda yet, but the subtitle for Powell’s speech on the Fed’s website says “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”, so we can expect some insight on those topics.

The last time the Fed had a review in 2020, that resulted in a shift towards average inflation targeting. In essence, they said that after periods when inflation had been persistently beneath 2% (like the 2010s), then monetary policy could seek to reach inflation a bit above 2% to counteract that. The Fed also reinterpreted their approach to full employment, in that a tight labour market alone wasn’t a reason to raise rates. So that implied a move away from the pre-emptive approach whereby the Fed would tighten policy to get ahead of future inflation as the labour market tightened. Of course, we now know that shortly after the framework review, there was then a major burst of inflation, and although it had many drivers, our US economists concluded in a Friday note (link here) that the new framework was a contributor to that overshoot. So this time around, they expect Powell’s speech to call for rolling back the 2020 modifications and restoring a primary role for pre-emption.

When it comes to the near-term path for policy, futures are still pricing in a September rate cut as the most likely outcome. But there was a clear shift last Thursday, as the PPI inflation release for July showed the fastest monthly inflation since March 2022. So that made it clear that a September cut still wasn’t a done deal, particularly with the emerging signs of tariff-driven inflation. And we still know there’s more to come on the tariff front, as Trump said on Friday that he’d be “setting tariffs next week and the week after, on steel and on, I would, say chips — chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after”. So that’s one to keep an eye on, and Trump also suggested that the semiconductor rate could be as high as 300%.

Staying on inflation, we’ve got some more releases out this week, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. The UK will be an important one, as the June reading was unexpectedly strong, with headline inflation rising to +3.6%. Moreover, our UK economist expects it to take another step up in July to +3.8%. By contrast in Japan, our economist sees headline inflation easing a bit to +3.1% in July, down from 3.3% in June. Otherwise, the main data release will be the August flash PMIs on Thursday, which will offer an initial indication on the global economy’s performance this month, particularly with the latest tariffs that have been imposed.

Elsewhere this week, we’ve got a few more earnings releases coming out, although it’s very much the end of the current season with over 90% of the S&P 500 having reported by now. This week’s highlights include several US retailers, including Walmart and Target, which should offer a fresh insight into consumer spending. Last Friday, the US retail sales numbers were pretty robust in July, with the headline reading up +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected), alongside an upward revision to June as well. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index painted a weaker picture for August, with the headline index unexpectedly falling to 58.6 (vs. 62.0 expected), alongside an uptick for inflation expectations.

Recapping last week now, equities continued to push higher, and the S&P 500 moved up +0.94% for the week. The biggest gains happened on Tuesday after the US CPI report, as it was broadly in line with expectations, and kept the prospect of Fed rate cuts on the table for the months ahead. So that supported a broad-based advance, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 up by an even bigger +1.47%. Moreover, there was a global risk-on move that saw Europe’s STOXX 600 rise +1.18% last week, with outperformances from Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.47%) and France’s CAC 40 (+2.33%). And in Japan, the Nikkei (+3.73%) closed at a record high as the country’s Q2 growth surprised on the upside.

Meanwhile on the rates side, there was a decent steepening in yield curves last week, with the 2yr Treasury yield down -1.2bps to 3.75%, whilst the 10yr yield rose +3.3bps to 4.32%, and the 30yr yield was up +6.9bps to 4.92%. That came amidst shifts in Fed pricing over the course of the week, with a more dovish path initially after the CPI report and suggestions from Treasury Secretary Bessent for lower rates, before that was pared back after the PPI reading and the higher inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s survey. So, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting ultimately fell from 57bps to 54bps over the week. Meanwhile in Europe, government bonds also struggled, with 10yr bund yields up +9.9bps to 2.79%, whilst the 30yr German yield (+14.3bps) posted its biggest weekly jump since March, reaching a post-2011 high of 3.35%.

2b European opening report

Risk tone slips in the aftermath of the Trump-Putin summit; European leaders set to join Zelensky/Trump today – Newsquawk US Market Open

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 06:24 AM

Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.
Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.
Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
European bourses are modestly lower in the aftermath of the Trump-Putin summit; US futures are mixed/modestly lower.
DXY edges higher, EUR subdued post Trump-Putin, Antipodeans resilient.
Bonds are bid, in-fitting with the apprehensive risk tone into an evening of US meetings.
Crude complex initially little changed but now firmer ahead of US-Ukraine/EU/NATO today.
Looking ahead, US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Leaders. Commentary from Fed’s Bowman.

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RUSSIA-UKRAINE

MONDAY

White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
“European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1) pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia.
Click here for the Newsquawk multilateral meeting.

US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
US President Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

RUSSIA

Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

EUROPE

European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

TARIFFS/TRADE

US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India’s oil lobby is funding Russia’s war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.
German government spokesperson states that the US’s role in potential Ukraine security guarantees will be discussed in Washington today. Chancellor Merz is among the attendees at tonight’s Washington meeting.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened modestly lower across the board, and the risk tone continued to deteriorate as the morning progressed, with all major indices falling into negative territory; currently at lows.
European sectors are split down the middle, in quiet trade. Utilities takes the top spot, joined closely by Real Estate and Health Care; the latter has been buoyed by upside in heavy-weight Novo Nordisk (+5.2%). The Co. benefits after receiving accelerated US FDA approval for liver disease MASH. Elsewhere, Vestas Wind Systems (+16%) gains after the US provided new guidance on renewable tax credits, essentially clarifying that projects can qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill’s safe-harbor provision if they show physical work and not just early spending, to then access the Inflation Reduction Act credit.
US equity futures (ES -0.2% NQ -0.2% RTY U/C) are modestly lower/mixed, with the downbeat mood seemingly a continuation of the pressure seen in Europe.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
Click for the additional news
Click for a detailed summary

FX

DXY initially traded rangebound after last Friday’s mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. However, EUR-led weakness led to saw some modest upside in the Dollar index, to make a fresh peak at 98.06 (more below). Do note that there were comments from Fed’s Daly over the weekend, who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she noted that they have to be ahead to not be behind. DXY resides in a 97.78-98.06 range, vs Friday’s 97.72-98.21 parameter. DXY today sees its 50 DMA at 98.08.
EUR takes a breather from recent advances and trades on either side of 1.1700 with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky. On this front, “European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today: 1) pin down more details on possible US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the possible trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia. EUR/USD resides in a current 1.1672-1.1716 range with the 50 DMA at 1.1637.
USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level overnight with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks. USD/JPY trades in a current 147.06-147.58 range, well within Friday’s 146.74-147.89 range, with the 50 DMA at 146.54 and the 200 DMA at 149.25.
GBP continues to struggle for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday’s inflation data. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3532-1.3565 range.
Antipodeans remain afloat despite the firmer dollar and downward tilt in risk sentiment, and losses across most base metals, with traders also eyeing the widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week. There is nothing obvious to explain the resilience in the non-US dollars.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).
Click for a detailed summary
Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

A morning of modest gains for the complex. Driven higher by the apprehensive risk tone after the fallout of the Alaska summit. In brief, no ceasefire was agreed upon, but we did see Russian President Putin say that they would be willing to freeze the southern front lines in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing from certain regions. USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks so far, at a 111-26+ peak. If the move continues, then we look to the 111-30+ peak from last Friday before the figure and then last week’s peak at 112-14.
Bunds are firmer, in-fitting with USTs. Reacting to the risk tone and more so than USTs at this moment in time, perhaps as the geopolitical equation directly adds in European leaders today. As it stands, Bunds have notched a 129.18 peak with upside of almost 40 ticks at most. While relatively pronounced, we remain some way shy of 129.62 from last Friday and then the 130.06 peak from last week.
Gilts again, echoes of the above, but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The UK is also exposed to the evening’s meetings as PM Starmer is in attendance. Into the meeting, Gilts have eased ever so slightly from a 91.32 peak where they notched gains of just over 20 ticks. As is the case with peers, this has stalled before Friday’s 91.68 peak before the figure and then last week’s 92.37 best.
Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

Oil was little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today. More recently, oil prices have caught a slight bid, and currently reside at the top-end of recent ranges. Nothing really behind the latest bout of upside, but potentially as traders digest the weekend’s Russia/Ukraine developments. WTI currently resides in a USD 61.65-62.52/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.47-66.31/bbl range.
Two-way trade across precious metals and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with few catalysts outside of geopolitics. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading on either side of its 50 DMA (3,349.60/oz) in a USD 3,323.68-3,358.49/oz range.
Copper eked out marginal gains overnight amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region. However, dollar strength and a worsening of sentiment in the European morning prompted the base metals complex to trade mostly in negative territory. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,727.55-9,770.30/t range.
Indian Oil Corp Exec says processed 24% Russian oil in June quarter (prev. 14% in March quarter)
UBS reiterates its end-2025 and March 2026 Brent crude oil view to USD 62/bbl, on higher supply front South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will continue talks with the IAEA.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports a heavy rain event caused the release at 236k bpd, Joliet Illinois Refinery.
Hungarian Foreign Minister says Russian oil flows to Hungary are halted after the Ukrainian attack on pipeline transformer station.
NHC says Category 4 Hurricane Erin located just east of the Southeast Bahamas; Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the US Eastern Seaboard this week.
Ukraine’s foreign minister states that Hungary has made efforts to sustain its dependence on Russian oil.
Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -1.3% (Prev. -1.2%); YY (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Jun) 7.0B EU vs. Exp. 13.0B EU (Prev. 16.2B EU, Rev. 16.5B EU)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
ECB’s Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB’s policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.
Israel PM Netanyahu has “recently intensified his meetings with close associates in preparation for the possibility of early elections”, via Al Jazeera citing sources.
“Hamas has received a new offer from the mediators for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and is expected to respond to it today”, according to Israeli journalist citing Qatar’s Al-Arabi TV.
“A diplomatic source involved in the negotiations between Egypt and Qatar and Hamas told me that in light of the fact that there was not enough progress in yesterday’s talks in Cairo”, according to Axios’ Ravid.

OTHER

US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.
Chinese Foreign Ministry on US President Trump’s comments on China, says will not allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China in any way.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades just under USD 115k; Ethereum sinks below USD 4.3k, and underperforms vs peers.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB.
Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
India’s federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.
China’s Commerce Ministry is to extend the investigation into EU dairy products to 21st February 2026.

2c Asian opening report

Alaska summit did not achieve a ceasefire, Trump meeting Zelensky today – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 01:53 AM

Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.
Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.
Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit; Europe is set for a firmer open.
DXY is steady with traders mindful of Jackson Hole later in the week, JPY narrowly lags across the majors.
Crude futures were little changed post-Trump-Putin meeting, spot gold saw two-way price action before gaining.
Looking ahead, highlights include US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Leaders

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks finished mostly in the red on Friday albeit with mild losses amid tentativeness leading into the Trump/Putin meeting and as participants digested mixed data including US Retail Sales which matched expectations in July alongside a stronger-than-expected control figure, while industrial production unexpectedly declined, import prices were hot and UoM Sentiment unexpectedly worsened, but NY Fed Manufacturing surged above expectations. As such, stocks came under pressure ahead of and after the cash open in which financials were hit the most alongside Tech, with the latter weighed by fresh Trump remarks on tariffs on chip imports as he stated “I’m going to have a rate that is going to be 200%, 300%”, while Healthcare notably outperformed among the sectors due to Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 13F unveiling a new stake in UnitedHealth.
SPX -0.26% at 6,451, NDX -0.51% at 23,712, DJI +0.08% at 44,946, RUT -0.56% at 2,286.
Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India’s oil lobby is funding Russia’s war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB.
Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.
US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) marginally gained amid some optimism following the Trump-Putin meeting last week.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.

FX

DXY traded rangebound after last Friday’s mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Nonetheless, there were comments from Fed’s Daly over the weekend who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, as well as noted that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind.
EUR/USD took a breather from recent advances and battled to sustain the recently reclaimed 1.1700 status with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky.
GBP/USD struggled for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday’s inflation data.
USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks.
Antipodeans remained afloat alongside the mostly positive risk environment, albeit with further upside limited owing to the lack of tier-1 releases and ahead of a widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures resumed its gradual rebound from last week’s trough as participants looked ahead to President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Bund futures were confined to tight parameters after last Friday’s slump beneath the 129.00 level and ahead of this week’s issuances on Tuesday and Wednesday.
10yr JGB futures attempted to nurse losses but with the recovery hampered by a lack of pertinent data and as Japanese stock markets extended on record highs.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures were little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today.
Spot gold saw two-way trade and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with little catalysts outside of geopolitics.
Copper futures eked marginal gains amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin steadily retreated overnight and nears a test of the USD 115k level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
India’s federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
US President Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.
Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.
US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

OTHER

US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
ECB’s Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB’s policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

DATA RECAP

UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -1.3% (Prev. -1.2%)
UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)

3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN/

3C CHINA

CHINA

4. European affairs and NATO

GERMANY

Merz’s Germany: 100 Days Of Economic Deep Freeze

Saturday, Aug 16, 2025 – 09:20 AM

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German federal government is already staggering into its first major crisis just months after its election. That it also stands economically bare amidst mostly self-inflicted turbulence has gone largely unnoticed. Meanwhile, no one in Berlin seems concerned about the country’s economic catastrophe.

To call Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s first 100 days a false start would be the understatement of the year. His initial report card is a disaster. His ostentatious alignment with the Left in fighting the AfD, the catastrophic decision to halt arms deliveries to Israel, and the break with Germany’s last vestiges of state raison d’être will contribute to the premature end of this coalition just as much as Merz’s wobbly course in the debate over the SPD-nominated Federal Constitutional Court judge Brosius-Gersdorf.

Fear-Driven Shock Paralysis

Merz is fear-driven, fleeing to the international stage to project an aura of strength domestically against the background of bellicose noise in Russia policy, avoiding the looming collapse of his government and the embarrassment of a short-lived chancellorship. Armament, military readiness, and a pinch of patriotism—this is the thin veneer of Merz’s last line of defense.

It is the nature of the media that the EU’s disastrous handling of the trade conflict with the US, the Gaza crisis, and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict dominate headlines. Meanwhile, Germany’s economic decline accelerates. To be fair, Merz inherited a poisoned political legacy. The country’s deep recession was handed down by his predecessor Olaf Scholz, along with the dire state of the German social funds, which currently show a deficit of around €47 billion.

The extreme imbalances in Germany’s social system – resulting from the recession, demographic aging, and uncontrolled migration – cannot be blamed on Merz any more than the hyperstate-like public sector, now managing half of all economic output through its channels. The energy crisis is also a fact the new government must confront, layered atop a complex mix of structural deficits that have rendered Germany nearly untouchable in the global competitive landscape.

Problem Recognized?

The question must be: Has Merz at least recognized the severity of the country’s economic crisis? And if so, what measures does his government plan to reverse it? In the third year of recession and with a loss of 700,000 jobs since 2019, it is clear Berlin knows the political course leads Germany toward catastrophe.

On the plus side, Merz can claim his so-called “investment booster,” mainly composed of two measures: the temporary reintroduction of declining balance depreciation until 2029 and a corporate tax cut from 15% to 10% starting 2028. These measures would relieve the economy by €11.3 billion, roughly 0.23% of GDP—laughably small given the economy already carries €146 billion in unnecessary bureaucracy costs.

Merz should have wielded the chainsaw here, but no German politician dares challenge a bureaucracy that has grown into a state within a state, adding half a million employees in the last six years.

Reform Refusal and Course Maintenance

Merz’s original promise to cut electricity taxes for business and consumers also signals, unspoken, that the green transition is seen as the root of the energy crisis, driving energy-intensive firms out of the country. Last year alone, €64.5 billion in direct investments left Germany, a long-standing trend now accelerating.

Consequently, Germany is losing its economic foundation, on the verge of becoming Europe’s Rust Belt, much like parts of the US. Yet Berlin does nothing: no electricity tax cut, no return to nuclear, no scrapping of the burdensome heating law. Merz refuses any reforms in the green transition. We are witnessing the continuation of Habeck’s deindustrialization agenda.

Merz avoids all conflict with Brussels’ Green Deal. The core of centralist policy, the key to Germany’s economic liberation, remains untouched, regardless of how sharply the recession bites.

An orderly withdrawal of the state from the frozen energy sector, weighed down by subsidies and regulations, is nowhere in sight. Talks with Moscow over gas imports are unthinkable—Brussels stubbornly polishes the 19th sanctions package. Merz watches as a policy takes root that delivers Germany a fatal economic blow.

Systemic Collapse

Even social fund problems, the scandalous citizen’s allowance, now promoted globally as aid for migrants, fall under economic policy. Like a rabbit before a snake, the government freezes amid widening deficits, attempting to fix health and pension insurance with new debt and supplementary transfers. Only an effective migration policy shift and painful reforms to social benefits could reverse the downward spiral.

Merz allows Germany to head toward French-style conditions—his historically and legally dubious €1 trillion debt program will push Germany into the middle ranks of European debt states, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to 95%, turning the federal budget into an unbearable weight. Infrastructure spending is nice, but with social funds in crisis and defense commitments rising, resources will barely suffice to maintain existing assets.

No Regulatory Turnaround

Unless Germany’s economic course turns 180 degrees, this government will go down as a temporary continuation of the red-green agenda and a footnote in the country’s history. With a coalition backed by the Left, Merz lacks the political capital and personal reform drive to pull Germany out of crisis.

In Argentina today, one can observe the recipe for political turnaround: drastic state downsizing and deregulation should guide policy. The state’s share must shrink enough that private markets regain control of investment allocation.

Merz would need to break the ideological wall of his structurally leftist coalition, cancel the Green Deal with Brussels, and restore diplomatic relations with Moscow to turn the tide. Germany is light-years from such a paradigm shift. Until then, the economic substance left by two postwar generations will be politically squandered.

END

British Army Colonel: Civil War Is Coming

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 04:15 AM

A retired British Army Colonel is warning that he believes a civil war in the country is now inevitable because politicians are unwilling to take meaningful actions to fix societal collapse.

Colonel Richard Kemp, who has served on the Joint Intelligence Committee and the Cabinet Office crisis centre COBRA, urges that an alliance “of the hard left and Islamist extremists” will clash with broadly conservative British people and that it will lead to widespread prolonged unrest.

Kemp suggests that “together with other causes,” these Islamist leftists will “come together to threaten the cohesion and the culture, the entire culture and political existence of the West.”

"The more it develops, the more unrest we’re going to see… I would go as far as to predict not just civil unrest but civil war in the UK, in the coming years… I would hate to be right on this, but I believe I know that there is no political solution.”

I spoke to former Colonel… pic.twitter.com/kxBJlkbqdF
— Connor Tomlinson (@Con_Tomlinson) August 14, 2025

Kemp, who fought counter insurgency in Northern Ireland, served in the Gulf war, Bosnia, and commanded in Afghanistan, asserts that the agitators are “fostered by,” and “funded to a large extent, by our international enemies like Russia, China, Iran, and other countries as well.”

In an interview with podcaster Conor Tomlinson, Kemp remarks that politicians in the UK are “in a state of bewilderment, they’re like rabbits in headlights,” and that while they understand how the unrest is being fomented, they are unable or unwilling to put a stop to it.

Kemp says of political leaders that their “horizon is four years,” and “They want to keep a state of equilibrium for that time, they want to do what they can to make sure they win the next election.”

“They don’t want to take the radical sort of action that might be necessary to address these sorts of problems,” the Colonel stresses, highlighting mass migration as one major issue.

“There’s only so much that I think people can take of that, and they’ve been very quiet up until now, the people in the UK have not really raised their voices against this, or in a very limited way only. But the more it develops, and it is going to develop more and more, the more unrest we are going to see,” Kemp emphasises.

He adds, “they have no option. I’m not encouraging or supporting this, but I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hands rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing, in their eyes.”

“I think there is every likelihood, I don’t know what the timeframe is, but I would go so far as to not just predict civil unrest, but civil war in the UK in the coming years if this situation continues which I believe it will,” he urges.

“I’d hate to be right on this, but I believe that I know there is no political solution to the situation Britain faces today,” Kemp further declares, adding “When I say there is no solution, I don’t mean there actually isn’t a solution, but there is no solution that any of our politicians are willing to take… because they are afraid of doing anything significant.”

As we’ve previously highlighted, these views are shared by London King’s College war professor Dr David Betz, who believes the UK is already “past the tipping point,” for near future civil war.https://modernity.news/2025/06/15/professor-of-war-warns-many-european-countries-are-in-an-pre-civil-war-state/embed/#?secret=YE3AsTXFTT

Betz stated earlier this year, “There isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.”https://modernity.news/2025/07/02/professor-warns-uk-government-is-preparing-for-civil-war-using-russian-invasion-threat-as-cover/embed/#?secret=wLC5pUGp4e

Kemp’s interviewer Conor Tomlinson notes that Colonel Kemp has never even heard of Professor Betz and arrived at the same conclusion completely independently, Which “makes his well-informed warnings all the more alarming.”https://modernity.news/2025/07/28/the-quiet-civil-war-has-already-started/embed/#?secret=79ViKs2Ijs

The YouTube version of the interview is also below:https://www.youtube.com/embed/kQnEEPpPLgA

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

END

Rich Londoners Hire Security, Leave Rolexes At Home Over Knife Crime, Robberies

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One of the world’s most popular tourist destinations is struggling with rising levels of robbery, usually involving knives, which has led to an increase in demand for bodyguards, experts say.

Will Geddes, a former bodyguard and managing director of ICP Group, which provides personal security teams in London, said, “I get regular calls from the United States, from the Far East, from places like China and Hong Kong, from clients who say ’my family or my sister or my girlfriend or whoever is going to be flying over to London, how safe is it?”

“That’s entirely alien to how it was 10 years ago,” he told The Epoch Times.

Geddes said robbery gangs often wait outside some of London’s swankiest nightclubs and follow victims down the street before pouncing on them.

Knife crime in London had risen by 86 percent between 2014 and 2024, according to a report published in July by think tank Policy Exchange. The crimes were concentrated in areas such as the West End, which features tourist destinations including Oxford Circus and Trafalgar Square.

“London is in the grip of a crime wave of robbery, knife crime and theft,” the report said.

The U.S. State Department warns American tourists on its website, “Be aware of pickpocketing, mugging, and ’snatch and grab’ theft of mobile phones, watches, and jewelry.”

In July, 24-year-old Blue Stevens was fatally stabbed outside a five-star hotel in the Knightsbridge area of central London after taking his girlfriend on a date.

Three men were arrested in connection to the attack and released on bail.

“While we retain an open mind around motive, one line of enquiry is now that this may have been a targeted attack,” the Metropolitan Police said.

In a separate attack, five men from north London were found guilty on Aug. 1 of murdering a Greek tourist and conspiracy to rob.

Prosecutors said five men targeted 26-year-old Antonis Antoniadis in July 2024, after he arrived at a nightclub in a Lamborghini sports car, wearing a Versace watch and carrying a Lacoste bag.

“It seems that when that group of five saw Antonis come out of the club, those robbers thought they had found a suitable target,” prosecutor Bill Emlyn Jones said.

The men followed Antoniadis’s Uber in a stolen car. After arriving at their destination, Antoniadis and his friend struggled to find a door key. The men approached him, wearing hoods and balaclavas.

Antoniadis hit one of the robbers with a brandy bottle as they tried to rob him. He was punched and kicked, then stabbed, causing injuries that led to his death in a hospital two weeks later.

All five attackers face mandatory life in prison when they are sentenced in October.

London Metropolitan Police head of knife crime Cmdr. Hayley Sewart said, “Tackling violent crime is our top priority.”

“Every month across London we are making over 1,000 more arrests than we were last year, with knife-related crime (16 percent) and robbery (13 percent) both falling significantly,” Sewart said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

‘Jaded Weariness’

Geddes said there is a “degree of jaded weariness” among wealthy people in London.

“They simply won’t wear their favorite watches. They won’t wear the Patek Philippes, they won’t wear their Audemars Piguets, they won’t wear their Rolexes, just really in fear,” he said.

“I had one client who was walking off Sloane Street [in central London], and it was 8 o’clock in the morning, and a guy comes up behind him and hits him over the head with a machete, causes him unbelievable amount of stitches.”

He said the victim fell to the ground unconscious and the robber took a 60,000 pound watch ($81,000) from his wrist.

Norman Brennan, a knife crime and policing commentator who served 31 years in the police in London, told The Epoch Times that London is no longer safe.

“The reality is that there are areas of London that are lawless. They’re also no-go areas,” Brennan said, adding that the perception of crime was so high in some areas that nonresidents did not want to go there or allow their family members to go there.

Brennan, who served six years in a London police squad dedicated to investigating robberies, said people are afraid. He said there were teams of professional criminals out hunting for potential victims.

“The violence that they use, or are prepared to use, is ultimate, in so much as they will kill a victim to get their watch or expensive jewelry and money,” he said.

Stop and Search

The Policy Exchange report makes several recommendations, including for the police department to increase stop-and-searches. It also urges the government to amend current legislation “to explicitly allow ‘without suspicion’ searches to take place in the most intense violent crime ‘hotspots’ at any time.”

The report suggests that those convicted of robbery “receive an immediate custodial sentence of at least three years.”

Paul Birch, a former London police officer, said he believed the rise in knife crime and muggings is partly due to officers’ reluctance to stop and search people, “for fear of being labeled as racist.”

“Many criminals know this and have taken advantage,” he told The Epoch Times.

In recent years, lawmakers including Labour MP Diane Abbott have said that black people are unfairly targeted in London when police carry out stop-and-searches for drugs, knives, or other weapons.

The chair of the Police Federation in London, Rick Prior, was removed from his position in April for a breach of Metropolitan Police Federation standards. Birch said Prior was sacked after he suggested in a television interview that officers were worried about being labeled racist while patrolling areas of London.

Sewart said that although “we do not agree with all of the analysis” in the Policy Exchange report, the police department has called for justice reform.

“Reducing knife crime requires a whole-of-society effort and we will consider any initiative that seeks to make this happen,” she said.

The leader of Britain’s Reform UK party, Nigel Farage, said during an Aug. 4 press conference that people in the capital are afraid.

“I dare you to walk through the West End of London after 9 o’clock of an evening wearing jewelry. You wouldn’t do it. You know I’m right,” he told a journalist. “And that’s just in London, let alone what’s happening in so many other parts of the country.”

EU/USA

Still a mess with the woke EU!!

Dispute Over EU Censorship Law Delays Trade Deal With The EU

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 03:30 AM

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The United States is fighting against EU opinion control on digital platforms. From the perspective of the European Commission, this constitutes an unacceptable interference in internal affairs, which is why it is now delaying the ratification of the trade deal. In the meantime, the cost of higher tariffs due to the delay is being borne by the European economy.

Dealing with the EU is truly a headache. To be precise: The European Commission, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, is currently squandering the last remnants of respect and trust it had left after the Pfizer scandal, the strict lockdowns, and continuous attacks on freedom of speech. The issue at hand in the continuation of trade negotiations with the United States concerns exactly this fundamental right of free citizens.

Clear Rules

Everything was essentially settled: The EU conceded and accepted the unilateral tariffs of 15 percent. Moreover, it committed to purchasing U.S. energy, such as liquefied natural gas, worth $750 billion spread over three years. Whether the market can actually absorb this volume and whether private industry can manage the coordination is another question.

The rules are unambiguous: The EU grants U.S. businesses free access to the EU single market, while, of course, the jungle-like harmonization and climate protection regulations still apply. These form the true, complex, and largely insurmountable trade barrier for most international competitors. This intricate framework, the core of the European Commission’s interventionism, was accepted by the Americans. From the perspective of European industry, this is unfortunate, but the devastating domestic effects of EU protectionism and the climate fight under President Trump are irrelevant. It is the responsibility of European citizens to put an end to this disastrous policy.

Root of the Conflict

During the negotiations in Scotland, the U.S. side also made clear that it would not tolerate the massive attacks by Brussels on American communication platforms like X or Meta without pushback. And that is exactly what this is about.

Until the final signing of the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, the pre-set higher U.S. tariffs remain in effect. For Germany’s key industry—the automotive sector—the delay is disastrous. Instead of 15 percent, manufacturers must still pay the higher tariff of 27.5 percent. The burdens add up: BMW, for example, expected tariffs of one billion euros this year. VW reported a tariff damage of 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone due to U.S. tariffs that only came into force in April.

The tariffs strain already heavily restricted margins due to climate and energy policies. BMW estimates the margin loss from the trade dispute with the U.S. at around 1.25 percent. A quick deal would therefore be crucial to provide the German economy with much-needed relief in its struggle to stay competitive.

Calculation Without von der Leyen

A conclusion of the trade deal would be both possible and reasonable. But the German economy did not count on Ursula von der Leyen. The negotiations could now be finalized quickly to provide legal certainty for German businesses. Washington is ready, and President Trump has likely turned to more important matters. His tolerance for Brussels’ whining and endless trickery is probably limited. Everything points to a quick deal.

Yet for von der Leyen and her Brussels allies, other priorities take precedence.

What this exactly means was made clear last week by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He instructed U.S. diplomats in the European Union to actively oppose the increasingly aggressive implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA) by Brussels. Cases of abuse and attacks against U.S. citizens should be reported immediately. Rubio also wants active lobbying by U.S. representatives in EU political circles to counter this open attack on freedom of speech.

EU Censorship Attack

More than a month ago, the accompanying Digital Markets Act (DMA) became the focal point of the transatlantic dispute. At that time, Donald Trump insisted on having a say in interpreting the rules, which, like the DSA, primarily targets dominant U.S. communication platforms.

At its core, Brussels aims to enforce its censorship policies precisely on those platforms that are becoming increasingly important for public discourse. Disguised in the politically overused formula of “hate and incitement,” the digital communication space is to be brought under public censorship control.

Brussels has likely noticed that counter-narratives targeting centralized eco-authoritarianism are forming primarily on these platforms. They increasingly expose the functioning and objectives of the EU power apparatus.

To secure its censorship policy, Ursula von der Leyen and her Brussels apparatus willingly accept that, in the end, both companies and European consumers pay the price of the EU’s control mania through higher tariffs.

The U.S. will maintain the current tariff regime until a robust agreement is reached on handling European censorship policy.

Washington’s hardline stance gives hope that Brussels will suffer a significant setback in its attempt to establish a digital speech dictatorship.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

Ex-IDF Maj.-Gen.: ‘To fully dismantle Hamas, conquering last safe havens is non-negotiable’

“One of the things that history teaches us about fighting against terrorist groups is that their ‘safe haven’ must be destroyed, the site where they can regroup and plan their next moves.”

IDF soldiers operate in Beit Hanun.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)BySARAH BEN-NUNAUGUST 17, 2025 21:20

The two areas that the IDF hasn’t fully entered and removed Hamas infrastructure from are the refugee camps along the southern corridor, and Gaza City, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror explained in a conversation with The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

“One of the things that history teaches us about fighting against terrorist groups is that their ‘safe haven’ must be destroyed, the site where they can regroup and plan their next moves,” he explained. Amidror is a senior fellow at the The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

The massive problem facing this military plan is that that is where most of the Palestinian population is, in humanitarian areas in some cases, and simply trying to survive – and is likely where the hostages are being held as well.

If the IDF’s goal is to truly dismantle and defeat Hamas, these are the sites it needs to conquer, he added.

Smoke rises from Gaza following an explosion, as seen from Israel, May 16, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)

Israel’s new initiative to seize Gaza

Israel said earlier this month that it intended to launch a new offensive to seize control of northern Gaza City, the Strip’s largest urban center. The plan has raised international alarm over the fate of Gaza, which is home to about 2.2 million people.

The war began when Hamas led a massacre attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Hamas continues to hold 50 hostages in underground tunnels.

Israel set out to dismantle Hamas’s military and civilian control over Gaza. Per Hamas-run Gaza health authorities, the assault against Hamas killed over 61,000 Palestinians. It has also caused a hunger crisis, internally displaced most of Gaza’s population and left much of the enclave in ruins.

Amidror explained that these two areas are ones that Hamas exerts control over like it did before the war. The emphasis here is control over both above-ground infrastructure and below-ground, i.e. the vast tunnel network.

“This means that they are actually still in charge in these areas – military and civilly,” said Amidror.

Hamas “had immunity because Israel was careful not to hurt the hostages,” said Amidror, adding that the working assumption is that all the homes there are all booby-trapped – like they were in Rafah and Khan Yunis.

“This war is extremely difficult, and joins historic wars in that terrorists are fighting amongst their countrymen, which makes it so much harder for the IDF to separate civilians from military targets,” explained Amidror.

“Those who encourage Israel not to harm civilians are essentially asking Jerusalem not to fight at all,” he said.

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

Prices plummet in Gaza as aid influx transforms markets – exclusive

SCOOP – According to internal security data, which was presented to decision-makers, prices of essential products in Gaza’s markets have dropped by dozens of percentage points.

Al-Sahaba market in the Gaza Strip, July 28, 2025.(photo credit: TPS-IL)ByAMICHAI STEINAUGUST 17, 2025 20:43Updated: AUGUST 17, 2025 21:18

New internal data from the Israeli security establishment shows a sharp decline in the prices of basic goods in Gaza following the massive influx of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip in recent weeks.

According to the data, which was presented to decision-makers, prices of essential products in Gaza’s markets have dropped by dozens of percentage points.

Officials say the price cuts reflect the impact of continuous aid convoys, which have flooded the Strip with flour, rice, sugar, and other staples.

How much have prices dropped in Gaza?

Here are some examples: A kilogram of flour, which cost between NIS 80-100 about three weeks ago, is now priced at NIS 18. A kilogram of sugar, which costs NIS 300, now costs NIS 50. A kilogram of pasta dropped from NIS 100 to NIS 10. A kilogram of rice, which was NIS 120 three weeks ago, now sells for NIS 30. Oil, lentils, and hummus, which previously went for NIS 90 per kilogram/liter, have now dropped to NIS 30, NIS 20, and NIS 10, respectively.

Although the data originates from the security establishment, it is also corroborated by international organizations and aid groups operating in the area.

A graph showing the steep decline in market price for food in Gazan markets after the entry of humanitarian aid. (credit: DALL-E, AI)

Israeli officials say the influx of humanitarian aid will continue, and is expected to grow, in the coming weeks.

Despite the improvement, humanitarian organizations stress that Gaza’s overall humanitarian crisis remains severe. While food is becoming more accessible, challenges persist in areas such as medical supplies, clean water, fuel, and adequate shelter.

END

ISRAEL VS HAMAS

Danish PM Calls Netanyahu A ‘Problem’, Threatens Sanctions On Israel

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 05:00 AM

Via The Cradle

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Sunday that Benjamin Netanyahu has become a “problem,” and that she does not rule out sanctions on the Israeli Prime Minister, or even on Israel as a state.

Speaking with Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, Frederiksen stated that “Netanyahu himself is a problem now,” and that Israel would be better off with a new leader. She said that Netanyahu’s government “goes too far,” both in its war on Gaza and its ongoing colonization of the occupied West Bank. “It is settler violence, the additional settlements in the West Bank backed by Netanyahu, and the government’s opposition to a two-state solution, which blocks peace.”

Earlier this week, a minister in Netanyahu’s cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich, announced Israel would build over 3,000 new housing units for Israeli Jews in the illegal settlement of Ma’ale Adumim in the so-called E1 zone of the West Bank.

If constructed, the new project would divide the occupied West Bank and eliminate the chance to create a contiguous Palestinian state.

While criticizing Netanyahu and his government, the Danish Prime Minister nevertheless expressed her strong support for Israel. “We have a huge political problem with a very, very right-wing government in Israel, which, in my opinion, is currently working against Israel’s interests as well,” she said.

“I can say that because we, from the Danish side, have always been very active in supporting the state of Israel since the Second World War.”

Frederiksen suggested Denmark could use its current position in the EU to impose sanctions on Netanyahu, Israeli ministers, or the Israeli state. Denmark currently holds the EU Council Presidency, which is the co-legislator of the EU alongside the European Parliament.

“It is about political pressure, about sanctions. It can be against settlers or ministers, and it can also be against Israel as a whole,” she said.

“We do not rule anything out in advance. Like with Russia, we structure sanctions to target where they will be most effective. We are one of the countries that will apply additional pressure on Israel, but we have not yet gained support from the EU member states.”

Despite her criticisms of Netanyahu, Frederiksen declined to commit to arresting him should he travel to Denmark.

“I have no expectation that Netanyahu will come to Denmark. But I expect Danish authorities to handle it if it happens. I have nothing further to add.”

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister on accusations of using starvation as a weapon of war against the over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza. ICC member states are legally obliged to enforce ICC warrants.

Amid growing starvation in Gaza, Frederiksen wrote on Facebook that “the greatest need is to get humanitarian aid to the civilians in Gaza.”

“Blocking humanitarian aid is completely unacceptable,” she added. Frederiksen refused to recognize Palestine as a state, however, claiming it would be a reward for Hamas for its attack on Israeli settlements and military bases on 7 October 2023.

“We must also be sure that there is mutual recognition from a Palestinian state by Israel,” she added. “I do not want to do anything that could seem like a reward for Hamas.”

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed and 253 taken captive during the Hamas operation, which it said was launched to break the siege on Gaza, known as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Many, if not most, of the Israelis killed during the attack were allegedly killed by Israeli forces, including by fire from attack helicopters, drones, and tanks, per a policy known as the Hannibal Directive.

Israel’s war on Gaza may have killed over 100,000 Palestinians – according to some estimates – displaced virtually the entire population of 2 million, and flattened most of the strip. Israel is now seeking to ethnically cleanse Gaza to pave the way for building Jewish settlements on the enclave’s ruins.

end

ISRAEL HAMAS/GAZA

Trump Issues Clearest Greenlight For Netanyahu’s Offensive To ‘Confront & Destroy’ Hamas To Date

Monday, Aug 18, 2025 – 12:25 PM

President Trump on Monday issued a scorching message aimed at Hamas as well as the growing internationall and domestic critics of America’s Israel policy. He called for the total destruction of Hamas and the return of the hostages, in that order.

“The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be,” he wrote on Truth Social. This is one of the clearest ‘greenlights’ for Netanyahu’s expanded Gaza operations to date, and it clearly backs his government’s pursuit of a military solution, as opposed to attempting to renew or prioritize negotiations for a hostage exchange.

In bizarre language which sounds more like an enthusiastic gambler preparing to enter the casino, Trump declared after reviewing his recent Middle East ‘accomplishments’: “Play to WIN, or don’t play at all!”

This comes on the heels of a weekend which saw more mass anti-Netanyahu protests across Israeli cities, especially in Tel Aviv. Also, President Trump held a phone call with PM Netanyahu on Sunday.

Netanyahu’s office said they “discussed Israel’s plans to take control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring an end to the war through the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”

Trump in a follow-up interview with Axios said of the terror group, “they can’t stay there” – and explained: “I have one thing to say: remember October 7, remember October 7.”

Netananyahu told a Sunday press briefing that he has requested the Israel Defense Forces to present plans for “taking over” Gaza City.

There are reports saying the Israeli government is planning to ‘move’ Palestinian civilians into massive tent cities, with tents being provided and erected by the Israelis – but international war monitors and human rights groups have decried this as ethnic cleansing – but dressed up in humanitarian language, given the creation and publicizing of yet more sprawling refugee camps.

Thousands of Israelis stayed home from work, flooded city streets and blocked roads and highways across the country on Sunday, staging some of the largest anti-war protests in months as the military prepares for a major assault on Gaza City. https://t.co/S4eBx4BWzE pic.twitter.com/OunIurUPEg
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 17, 2025

Below is a Monday update of some of the latest major developments via Al Jazeera:

The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza says the death toll from Israel’s war has surpassed 62,000 with 60 people killed and 344 injured in the latest 24-hour reporting period.
Hospitals say 27 people seeking aid have been killed and 281 injured over the past day, bringing the total death toll of aid seekers to 1,965.
The ministry also confirms five new deaths from famine and malnutrition, including two children, raising the overall toll from hunger-related causes to 263, among them 112 children.
Israel continues its attacks across the Gaza Strip, including a strike on the Daraj neighbourhood in Gaza City that killed three Palestinians, among them a child.
Amnesty International has accused Israel of enacting a “deliberate policy” of starvation in Gaza, citing testimony from displaced Palestinians and doctors treating malnourished children.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar says he has revoked visas of Australian representatives to the Palestinian Authority after Canberra denied entry to far-right Israeli MP Simcha Rothman.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, says it will exclude six companies tied to Gaza and the West Bank from its portfolio after a review of Israeli investments.

Tent cities have already been expanding outside Gaza city and in various districts.

Food scarcity has continued to be an immense and dire problem, and something expected to worsen as civilians are driven out of Gaza City by the looming new Israeli ground offensive.

end

ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH

HOUTHIS

Israel Bombs Power Plant Near Yemeni Capital After Houthi Ballistic Missile Launch

Sunday, Aug 17, 2025 – 12:15 PM

The Israeli navy launched strikes on a key power plant near Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, on Sunday. The Israeli military claimed the facility was being used by Houthi forces but did not provide evidence.

The assault comes in the wake of the latest Houthi ballistic missile attack which targeted Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport, but which was reportedly intercepted and caused no damage or casualties.

Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah TV said the new Israeli assault caused damage to generators at the Hezyaz power station and triggered a fire, which was soon after successfully contained.

The Israeli military (IDF) described the attack as a response to ongoing Houthi missile and drone launches on Israel, which have persisted in parallel to IDF expanded operations inside the Gaza Strip.

A Sunday statement said Israeli forces “struck… deep inside Yemen, targeting an energy infrastructure site that served the Houthi terrorist regime” in an area of Sanaa, with without naming the specific site. These “strikes were conducted in response to repeated attacks” by the Iran-allied Shia militant group.

Israel has off and on for months bombed various parts of Yemen’s infrastructure, including the critical port of Hodeidah and the country’s main international airport.

These Israeli operations in Yemen have stepped-up after last spring the US withdrew from active Red Sea operations. Trump essentially declared mission accomplished, announced ceasefire, and called the US Navy away from the very costly (in terms of missiles and bombs expended) and risky mission.

Currently, Houthi leadership has still vowed to attack alleged Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Foreign ships bound for Israeli ports have also been put on notice.

International shipping transit routes have long ago been forced to adjust, taking longer and costlier routes to avoid the Red Sea, and also to the financial detriment of Egypt and its Suez canal.

Neither Israel nor the Western allies have been able to do anything about this, and some observers have expressed awe that a group of largely poor Islamist militants in sandals have been able to inflict such punishment and an effective blockade on global shipping and Israeli and Western companies.

https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1957043954970398731?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1957043954970398731%7Ctwgr%5E5ab5ef31cb35f6d20b02b73484bb0f32fff0517f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fww

And given that Israel is actually expanding offensive operations into southern Gaza once again, and against Gaza City, the Red Sea conflict won’t wind down anytime soon. Ceasefire efforts based in Doha have clearly failed at this point.

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//USA/HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEETING BTW TRUMP AND PUTIN

Putin: “No Ukraine War If Trump Were President”; Trump: “No Deal Until There’s A Deal”

Friday, Aug 15, 2025 – 08:32 PM

Update (2032ET):

During a joint press conference following their multi-hour summit on ending the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said that if Donald Trump had been president in 2022, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. This is essentially Putin blaming the Biden-Harris regime and its corrupt Deep State pals. We’re sure Western corporate media will be all but silent on this new development.

Putin stated:

“I’d like to remind you that in 2022, during the last contact with a previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague it should not…the situation…should not be brought to the point of no return when it would come to hostilities. And I said quite directly back then that’s a big mistake. Today, when President Trump saying that if he was the president back then there will be no war. And I’m quite sure it would indeed be so. I can confirm that. I think overall me and President Trump have built a very good business-like trustworthy contact. And every reason to believe moving down this path better to the end of the conflict in Ukraine.”

🚨 BREAKING: Vladimir Putin CONFIRMS that the war in Ukraine NEVER would've happened if Trump was in office

Trump was RIGHT!

"Today, when President Trump says that if he was President back [in 2022], there would be no war. And I'm quite sure that it would indeed be. I can… pic.twitter.com/glYtFFWCG5
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) August 15, 2025

Political commentator Rogan O’Handley emphasized on X that “Democrat Media isn’t going to like this clip, but it’s true Biden and Kamala pushed for Ukraine to be added to NATO and then all hell broke loose Plus we all know Ukraine was Biden and the Deep State’s money laundering playground And don’t even get me started on the biolabs…”

After nearly three hours of talks, President Trump said, “Many points were agreed to, and there are just a very few that are left,” but gave no specifics, while Putin reiterated Russia’s hard-line demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, disarmament, NATO exclusion, and regime change in Kyiv.

Both Trump and Putin seemed upbeat about finding a resolution to the war in Eastern Europe. They even shared a laugh…

🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸 Putin and Trump share a laugh after their JOINT press conference

HANDSHAKE and light chatter follow

Their HISTORICAL meeting is OFFICIALLY over https://t.co/eXtI2yDur0 pic.twitter.com/l7YEW8QbFF
— RT (@RT_com) August 15, 2025

Before the summit, Putin was welcomed to Alaska with a red carpet, a joint limousine ride, and a B-2 bomber and fifth-generation fighter jet flyover….

The US flexes in the sky above the two negotiating leaders. pic.twitter.com/NHiKyQYWxz
— James Hirsen (@thejimjams) August 15, 2025

Putin ended by inviting Trump to Moscow for a second round of talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Biden was NOT listening

Like Trump, Putin believes ‘there would be no war had Trump been president’ https://t.co/fQOOxCJZBZ pic.twitter.com/fvCTr05lAQ
— RT (@RT_com) August 15, 2025

Democrats today….

https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1956492832803283436?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1956492832803283436%7Ctwgr%5Eaf5b485b7220cf298db3899fd77547687da6c57c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2F

Trumps stated earlier, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

* * *

Putin began the joint press conference noting that negotiations were “useful” and held “in a constructive atmosphere.”

Putin says there’s an agreement but Trump appears to dispute that fact, though he notes several points of alignment.

The leaders didn’t spell out the points that had been agreed and those that hadn’t been.

Putin agreed with Trump that Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed, and framed the agreement as a starting point for resolving the Ukraine situation, as well as restoring economic relations.

“I would like to hope that the agreement we’ve reached together will help us bring closer that goal and will pave a path towards peace in Ukraine,” Putin says.

“I expect that today’s agreements will be the starting point, not only for the solution of the Ukrainian issue, but also will help us bring back businesslike and pragmatic relations between Russia and the US.”

He also notes that US and Russian investment and business cooperation have “tremendous potential.”

Trump then spoke:

“We had an extremely productive meeting and many points were agreed to. There are just a very few that are left.

Some are not that significant; one is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there.

We didn’t get there but we have a very good chance of getting there.”

“There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” Trump added.

Trump added that he will confer with the leaders of NATO and Ukraine.

“I’m going to start making a few phone calls and tell them what happened,” he said.

Putin suggested the next meeting of the two leaders should be in Moscow. Trump frowned and suggested he would “take some heat” for that.

Neither Putin nor Trump fielded any questions from reporters.

* * *

Update (1830ET): Discussions concluded after more than two-and-a-half hours at the summit in Alaska, marking the longest in-person meeting by Trump and Putin and offering a sign that by the US leader’s own metric the talks went well.

Trump aide Dan Scavino said a three-on-three meeting was still ongoing at 1:25 p.m. Alaska time, more than two hours after reporters were ushered out of the room for the start of the formal discussions.

The Kremlin later said the narrow-format talks had finished.

Joining the leaders in Friday’s meeting were US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov accompanying Putin.

RT reports that Defense Minister Belousov is “in a great mood.”

Fox News is reporting that Trump is currently holding a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and other European leaders.

Behind the scenes:

Behind the scenes of Trump-Putin summit in Alaska pic.twitter.com/volHOKhZxP
— RT (@RT_com) August 15, 2025

Big B-2 flyover with both leaders on the tarmac, just after the handshake…

END

ROBERT H INSIGHT:

Ukraine conflict end in sight

Whether Zelensky can accept this is not just up to him. The Nazi crowd ( AZOV and OUN) types will kill him and fight on. This has not been taken into account. The Russians started the SMO to get rid of this. These folks will fight. Ideology often takes precedent over reason. NATO has zero control over fanatics.

If NATO and Europe want war they will be on their own and this is clear. Do not rule out a false flag event after this meeting. If war is desired by either the crowd in Ukraine and/or Europe.

Without a Russian conflict countries like France, Germany and Britain have to face realities of debt and foolish immigration policies that are not sustainable. Whether they are prepared to face this reality is another question. Because NATO has little purpose without a Russian threat. And the question that needs to be asked is why would Russia even want Europe? Europe has many problems to overcome that will take much time in an ever changing global reality. The future is Eurasia and America needs to be in that sphere.

These are Russia’s Terms:

European leaders now to join Zelensky in Washington:

European Commission President von der Leyen.

President of Finland Stubb.

President of France Macron.

German Chancellor Merz.

NATO Secretary General Rutte.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni.

They will have no effect on changing American policy now. A huge defeat within 3 months on the battlefield is not something America wants the world to see. The truth is there is no capacity in the West to continue this conflict.

END

Kevin W. thoughts on the above:

Coinciding with Alaska Summit, Militarily, Russia has the Upper Hand. Destruction of HIMARS Rocket System and ‘Sapsan’ Missile Program

This is why the urgent meeting was needed not that the US wanted peace. The US has a bloody nose and needs a time out.

Coinciding with the Alaska Summit (August 15, 2025), the Russian military and intelligence services launched a joint operation to neutralize several key plants connected with the program.

https://southfront.press/russia-deals-crushing-blow-to-kyiv

Meanwhile, what’s happening in the war theater? Weapons Made in America are wiped out.

The grossly overhyped and exorbitantly overpriced US-made MLRS (multiple launch rocket system) was obliterated by the 9M723 hypersonic missile of the 9K720M “Iskander-M” system after it was detected in the vicinity of the settlement of Zhikhovo in the Sumy oblast (region).

Although initially presented as a NATO “wunderwaffe” that would “turn the tide”, the HIMARS never lived up to such expectations (except in the mainstream propaganda machine’s microcosm). So far, dozens of HIMARS have been neutralized by the Russian military, mostly by “Iskander” missile systems, although MLRSs such as the “Tornado-S” were also used.

Worse yet (for Kiev its NATO overlords), there were even cases when drones hit HIMARS launchers.

Thus far, various sources have posted footage confirming the destruction of around 40 of these overhyped US-made MLRSs (meaning the actual number could be far higher).

On August 14, the FSB revealed that four military-industrial facilities connected with developing and producing “Sapsan” missiles were targeted, causing “colossal damage” and stalling the Neo-Nazi junta’s ambitious weapons program. The FSB also revealed that the joint operation was carried out in coordination with the Russian military, eliminating a potential serious threat to the Kremlin.

Coinciding with the Alaska Summit (August 15, 2025), the Russian military and intelligence services launched a joint operation to neutralize several key plants connected with the program.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES

Health Care System To Pay More Than $1 Million To Settle COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Case

Sunday, Aug 17, 2025 – 03:10 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A health care system that operates hospitals and clinics in two states has agreed to pay more than $1 million to settle allegations it discriminated against religious employees.

Mercyhealth, which operates in Illinois and Wisconsin, reached the settlement after years of pre-litigation negotiations, following an investigation by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC).

The probe found evidence that Mercyhealth engaged in discrimination by denying employees religious exemptions to its COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

Mercyhealth also fired the workers, or lowered their wages, and discriminated against other workers by denying them a chance to even request religious accommodation, instead terminating them or withholding pay, according to the EEOC.

“At the start of my tenure as acting chair of the EEOC, I committed to focusing our agency’s resources to address the very real problem of religious discrimination, and this resolution is just the beginning,” EEOC Acting Chair Andrea Lucas said in a statement. “This is an example of what our agency can accomplish when we work with employers to ensure that the doors of our workplaces are equally open to religious employees.”

If a settlement was not reached, then Mercyhealth could have faced lawsuits alleging violations of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The law states in part that an employer cannot “fail or refuse to hire or to discharge any individual, or otherwise to discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment, because of such individual’s race, color, religion, sex, or national origin.”

The settlement features back pay and damages to the workers and former workers who were affected. Mercyhealth has also agreed to re-distribute its policies, train personnel on how to handle religious accommodation requests, and report to the EEOC about the requests and decisions on system-wide vaccination programs.

A Mercyhealth spokesperson confirmed that a settlement was reached.

“Mercyhealth respects the religious beliefs and practices of its employees,” Kara Sankey, vice president of clinical operations and chief nursing officer for Mercyhealth, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement

Sankey said that the health system had lots of work to do during the COVID-19 pandemic, “while doing its best to protect the health and safety of its patients and employees and complying with federal rules requiring all hospital staff receive vaccinations.”

She added: “The balancing of these critical goals could not be achieved without the dedication of our doctors and staff in times of significant personal risk, and Mercyhealth appreciates the work and assistance of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in resolving these remaining disputes. The process permits Mercyhealth to demonstrate its long-held commitment to employee rights and to close another chapter in its work during the pandemic.”

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Kate Middleton weighs 90 pounds; Serbian pol Darko Glisic has a stroke on live TV; Indian pol Biswa Bandhu Sen has a stroke at railway station; NZ racer Craig Broomhall has esophageal cancer

Brazilian TV host Fausto Silva has 4th organ transplant in 2 years; Austrian ice hockey star Patrick Obrist has lymphoma; Nigerian Senator Godswill Akpabio in hospital with “undisclosed illness”; more

Mark Crispin MillerAug 17

Further indications of the global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers.

To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.

BRAZIL

Faustão undergoes 4^th organ transplant in 2 years in São Paulo

August 8, 2025

O apresentador Fausto Silva, o Faustão, em uma de suas internações em São Paulo para transplante de órgãos. — Foto: Reprodução/Instagram

TV host Fausto Silva, 75, underwent two new organ transplants on Wednesday (7). Since beginning his treatment in 2023, he has had four transplants in total. This time, the host underwent a liver transplant and a kidney retransplant at Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein in São Paulo. According to the medical report, the organs, from a single donor, were deemed compatible by the São Paulo State Transplant Center, which contacted the institution to perform the procedures. Faustão has been hospitalized at Einstein Hospital since May 21^st due to an acute bacterial infection with sepsis. In August 2023, he underwent his first transplant, a heart transplant, which was highly successful at the same hospital. Six months later, in February 2024, he underwent his first kidney transplant. This week, he underwent another kidney and a liver transplant.

UNITED KINGDOM

Kate’s ‘Severe’ Cancer Side Effect Sparks New Health Concerns: ‘Clearly She’s Not Well’

August 5, 2025

Kate’s health is drawing renewed attention months after her reported cancer remission. RadarOnline.com reported there is growing concern that the Princess of Wales [43] is not OK. “Kate is painfully thin, and people are worried it’s a sign that she is struggling with her recovery from cancer treatment – or worse, she’s had a relapse,” an insider told the outlet. Sources claimed Kate now weighs around 90 pounds. “She’s been through so much, and she wants to be there for the royal family and do her part, but clearly she’s not well,” the source added. “Word is she’s having a difficult time and has no appetite and is losing weight as a result. She’s gaunt and has little to no muscle tone. Kate always had an athletic figure, but she’s far from it now.” Dr. Gabe Mirkin, who has not treated the princess, told the outlet this could be a sign she isn’t responding well to treatment.

Researcher’s Note – Kate Middleton Receives First Covid Vaccine [sic] at the Science Museum:

Altaf Hussain faces another medical emergency in London

August 9, 2025

MQM founder Altaf Hussain [71] was hospitalised in London on August 8 after his health worsened once again [note: MQM stands for Muttahida Qaumi Movement (originally Muhajir Qaumi Movement), a political party in Pakistan since 1984]. According to MQM’s official statement on X (formerly Twitter), Hussain felt unwell and was immediately attended by a medical emergency team. He was then shifted to a local hospital for further treatment. The MQM information department said Hussain’s condition worsened suddenly, prompting a doctor’s visit and ambulance call. After an initial check-up at his residence, the emergency team decided to move him for proper medical attention. Party leaders urged supporters to pray for his recovery. Senior MQM-London leader Mustafa Azizabadi confirmed the development online. Notably, Altaf Hussain was also hospitalised last month due to serious illness. In 2021, he was admitted to the ICU after contracting COVID-19 and remained under treatment for weeks.

AUSTRIA

Austrian Ice Hockey Star Patrick Obrist Diagnosed with Cancer

August 8, 2025

Austrian national ice hockey player Patrick Obrist has been diagnosed with lymphoma, a form of cancer, in a routine medical check. Source announced that the 32-year-old forward has good chances of recovery and will undergo multi-month therapy. The treating doctors assess the chances of recovery as very good, a source stated. At the start of the year, Obrist extended his contract with source until 2028 and was recently named team captain. Throughout his career, he has played 47 international games for Austria, with his most recent appearance at the Germany Cup 2024.

SERBIA

Serbian minister had a stroke during a live TV broadcast

August 6, 2025

Serbia’s Public Investment Minister and chairman of the Executive Council of the Serbian National Socialist Party, Darko Glisic [52], who suffered stroke on Tuesday morning during a live appearance on the morning program of the Pink television station. Glisic was unable to complete his interview, and the show was interrupted as soon as he showed the first signs of feeling unwell. According to Health Minister, Zlatibor Lonchar, the Serbian politician was taken to hospital unconscious and immediately underwent complex surgery. “The operation is complete. It was extremely difficult and took longer than expected,” Lonchar said, adding that the medical team involved many experts as there was simultaneous clotting and bleeding. “The minister was intubated and we are proceeding step by step. His body now has to fight the battle,”he said.

NIGERIA

Akpabio’s unsteady walk in recent video sparks health concerns amid report of emergency hospital visit

August 9, 2025

A recent video of the President of the Nigerian Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, has stirred public concern after he was seen walking with the aid of a black walking stick and assisted by close aides. The clip, which has been making the rounds on social media, shows the Senate President moving slowly and appearing physically strained, prompting questions about his state of health. In the footage, Akpabio, who is usually known for his energetic public appearances, seemed to rely heavily on both the walking stick and the support of those around him. The unusual sight has sparked speculation, with many Nigerians expressing worry over his well-being. Amid the viral video, former presidential spokesman Jackson Ude recently claimed that Akpabio is currently hospitalized in a London clinic over an undisclosed illness. In a post shared on his official X handle on Thursday, Ude, citing multiple sources, alleged that the Senate President was on his way back from Geneva, Switzerland, where he had attended a Parliamentary event, when he was forced to make a detour to London for what was described as an emergency medical situation.

No age reported.

INDIA

Tripura Assembly Speaker Biswa Bandhu Sen Suffers Brain Stroke at Agartala Railway Station, Undergoes Emergency Treatment at ILS hospital

August 8, 2025

In a sudden and alarming development, the Speaker of the Tripura Legislative Assembly, Shri Biswa Bandhu Sen [72], fell seriously ill at the Agartala Railway Station on Thursday evening while preparing to board a train to Dharmanagar, his hometown. According to official sources, Shri Sen collapsed inside a washroom at the station premises. He was immediately rushed to Tripura Medical College and Dr. BRAM Teaching Hospital (TMC) at Hapania. Upon examination, doctors confirmed that he had suffered an internal brain haemorrhage, a result of a brain stroke, and recommended urgent surgery.

PAKISTAN

Arij Fatyma Diagnosed with Rare Cancer, Fans Shocked

August 11, 2025

Islamabad, Pakistan – In an emotional revelation, former Pakistani actress and now U.S.-based digital creator Arij Fatyma [35] has shared that she is fighting a rare and aggressive form of cancer. The mother of two took to Instagram on Sunday evening, opening up about her journey for the first time. She explained that choriocarcinoma is a fast-spreading cancer that originates from trophoblastic cells — cells responsible for placenta formation — and usually develops after a molar pregnancy. “For months, I struggled with the decision to share this, as not everyone who follows you genuinely shares in your joy or sorrow. But I finally felt it was time,” she wrote. Fatyma revealed that her cancer was detected at an early stage, which doctors say is a rare stroke of luck since the disease is often diagnosed too late. “Molar pregnancies themselves are uncommon, but in extremely rare cases, they develop into choriocarcinoma — as happened with me,” she said, calling this recovery phase her “second life.”

CHINA

Ada Choi’s husband Max Zhang recall suffering heart attackin April

August 11, 2025

'I felt I would die if I closed my eyes': Ada Choi's husband Max Zhang recalls suffering heart attack in April

Hong Kong actress Ada Choi’s husband Max Zhang revealed he had a close brush with death this April. The 51-year-old Chinese martial arts actor is a participant in the latest season of Chinese singing reality show Call Me By Fire, and he revealed his condition to Korean-American singer-actor Lee Seung-hyun in a video released on Aug 9. “I almost died in April. I was on vacation on April 17 when it happened suddenly. I felt [my chest] hurt, had difficulties breathing and broke out in cold sweat,” he shared. Max added at that point in time, Ada was queuing to board a tour boat and was about 10 metres away from him. He said: “I couldn’t speak. I felt that I was in an abyss and falling through it and couldn’t hold on to anything. I told myself I couldn’t die there because I was overseas and Ada was taking care of our three children. If I were to die suddenly, what would happen to her… I felt I would die if I closed my eyes.” He added that he endured it and went to the doctor immediately after returning to Hong Kong. “The doctor told me that I could have died there,” he recalled to 40-year-old Seung-hyun, adding that he had a coronary stent implantation surgery.

SOUTH KOREA

Park In-young opens up about struggles with socializing after miscarriage

August 4, 2025

Park In-young, the sister of Super Junior member Leeteuk and an actress, opened up about her feelings after her miscarriage. On the afternoon of the 4^th, Park In-young, Leeteuk’s biological sister, appeared on the comprehensive channel MBN’s entertainment program ‘Oh Eun-young Stay’. In the interview, Park In-young said, ‘This story might upset my mom and my younger sibling,’ adding, ‘It’s a miscarriage. After a miscarriage, I really hate meeting people. I don’t know why, but I just hate it.’ Park In-young, who has worked as a singer and actress, married a non-celebrity known as a scuba diving instructor and entrepreneur in the food industry in November 2021. Previously, in June [2022], she revealed that she was recovering after experiencing a miscarriage.

No age reported.

NEW ZEALAND

Motocross champ Courtney Duncan on slow recovery from heart condition

August 9, 2025

Dunlop rider Courtney Duncan crowned 2023 Women’s Motocross champion

Auckland – One of New Zealand’s most underrated sportspeople Courtney Duncan is recovering well from pericarditis. The four-time Women’s World Motocross champion had the health scare just before the opening round of the 2025 season at Sardinia. Duncan began experiencing chest pains in February this year and was eventually rushed to hospital. After a battery of tests, the 29-year-old was diagnosed with pericarditis, which is a swelling of the tissue surrounding the heart.

‘It felt a bit like reflux’: Speedway commentator’s cancer shock

August 7, 2025

Christchurch, Canterbury – A Christchurch speedway stalwart, known for bringing energy and spectacle to the city’s race nights, has been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. Craig Broomhall, a well-known commentator at Ruapuna Speedway, was diagnosed with oesophageal cancer months after noticing a “choking sensation” in his throat. ”It started to feel like I had the hiccups. I couldn’t swallow food. It felt a bit like reflux,” he said. It got to the point where I couldn’t go out for dinner without ending up in the toilet, trying to clear my throat.” A visit to the doctor led to an endoscopy that revealed a 5cm tumour covering 90% of his oesophagus, he said. “It was a hell of a shock.” Doctors are now preparing him for three months of chemotherapy, followed by a major surgery to reconstruct the oesophagus using his colon, he said. He would need eight weeks of hospitalisation after the surgery, Broomhall said.

No age reported.

END

Celebs:

UNITED STATES

Amy Schumer Shares Post-Surgery Hospital Photo After Undergoing Procedure

August 8, 2025

Amy Schumer [44] appears to be on the mend after undergoing surgery on her back this week. The comedian shared a post-procedure photo on her Instagram Stories on Friday, Aug. 8, that depicted her resting against a paper-covered pillow with a hospital gown bunched over her shoulder. The caption of the photo featured her signature wit, revealing that she “overheard” someone imply that “pickleball keeps this place in business” after she woke up from her surgery. Schumer didn’t share the specific procedure she underwent, nor what necessitated it, but she has been open about her health in the past. Most recently, she detailed the difficult time she had with weight loss medication Ozempic, and the better luck she had with Mounjaro. She also shared a candid look at her diagnosis with Cushing Syndrome, which came about because critics of her press appearances at the time questioned the appearance of her face, which they said looked “swollen” and “puffier” than normal. Trolls were targeting an actual symptom called “moon face.” After several MRIs and blood draws, Schumer went from “thinking I may not be around to see my son grow up” to confirmation that the symptoms would eventually “work itself out.” Hopefully, the same can be said for whatever led to her latest treatment.

Researcher’s Note – Amy Schumer Wearing Her “Fanciest Dress” To Get The COVID-19 Vaccine [sic] Is Hilariously Inspiring: Link

‘Grey’s Anatomy’ star diagnosed with autoimmune disease after alarming symptoms

August 7, 2025

“Grey’s Anatomy” star Camilla Luddington is getting candid about a personal health battle that left her confused, exhausted and, at times, barely able to function. Luddington, 41, known for her role as Dr. Jo Wilson on the long-running medical drama, revealed she was recently diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder that drastically impacted her everyday life – physically and emotionally. “I want to say about two and a half months ago now, still very recent, I had blood work and it came back,” she began to explain on her “Call It What It Is” podcast. “My doctor was like, everything looks great except this one little thing. And I remember hearing the words autoimmune disease and thinking ‘what the f—.’” Luddington continued to say that her doctors diagnosed her with Hashimoto’s hypothyroidism and told her that it was a very common autoimmune disorder.

Researcher’s Note – Luddington was working in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link

Christina Applegate was left hospitalised and ‘screaming’ with pain over new illness not related to MS diagnosis

August 6, 2025

Christina Applegate [53] recently opened up about the painful time she was having with a new illness that left her hospitalised on top of her regular struggles with MS. The actor has been very candid about the autoimmune disease she was diagnosed with back in 2021, as the Married… With Children star said that she ‘doesn’t leave the house anymore’ due to her multiple sclerosis. Speaking with her friend and podcast co-host Jamie-Lynn Sigler, Applegate explained that she started feeling unwell while she was in Europe visiting family members. During her flight back to the US, she decided she would go straight to hospital upon her return as she would prefer not to be in a position where she had to rush there at some inconvenient hour. She said: “I’m like, I wanna be admitted. I’m staying here because I want answers. I want every test that you can possibly think of or ones that you haven’t even thought of, and I want them done.” Applegate woke up the following day with a terrible pain in her side which was ‘radiating’ from her back to her front, leading her to think ‘my appendix is bursting’. The actor explained she was in ‘so much pain’ that she was ‘screaming’ and was sent for an emergency CT scan at 2.00am, which showed she was suffering from a kidney infection. It had started in the right kidney but since moved to the left one as well, and told her podcasting pal: “Because of this kidney infection, I have to have intravenous antibiotics right now. And that’s where we’re at.” Her representatives told People that she had since returned home from the hospital after her treatment for a kidney infection, with a statement saying she had been there for seven days.

Researcher’s Note – Applegate was working heavily in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link

END

THEN:

What’s happening to the rhythm section? 45 bassists have “died suddenly” since our last update in March of 2024

Part 2: Like all the mysterious drownings that started globally with the start of “vaccination,” the toll among those rockers strenuously thudding should be closely studied by the scientists

Mark Crispin MillerAug 17

A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.

To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.

UNITED STATES (20)

Jill Lisson [54] of Funerus has passed away [bassist, vocalist]

August 9, 2025

The Scarlet Opera bass player Daniel Zuker [31] dies [cancer]

April 22, 2025

LoveHateHero bassist Paris Bosserman [40] has passed away

April 7, 2025

No cause of death reported.

Bay Area Bassist Steve Evans [72]

April 5, 2025

No cause of death reported.

156/Silence Bassist Lukas Booker [28] Has Passed Away

March 28, 2025

No cause of death reported.

Truckstop Dickpill bassist Toby Hurt has passed away

March 18, 2025

No age or cause of death reported.

Fruupp vocalist, flautist and bassist Peter Farrelly has died, aged 76

March 17, 2025

No cause of death reported.

R&B artist [D’Wayne Wiggins, bassist, vocalist] dead at 64 after private battle with bladder cancer

March 8, 2025

D’Wayne Wiggins of Tony! Toni! Toné has died at the age of 64 after a year-long battle with bladder cancer, his family shared on his Instagram. Here, Wiggins poses for a portrait in New York on Sept. 27, 2023.

Frank Cannino (53, bassist, Scrape, Scar Culture, Nemacyte) Has Passed Away, GoFundMe Launched

August 22, 2024

No cause of death reported.

100 Demons/Afghan Haze’s [bassist] Erik Barrett has passed away

August 20, 2024

No age or cause of death reported.

Fenix*TX’s Adam Bryce Lewis [45, bassist, cancer] has passed away; a memorial fund has been set up for his family

June 12, 2024

Fenix*TX’s Adam Bryce Lewis has passed away; a memorial fund has been set up for his family

Tom Fowler, Bassist For Frank Zappa & The Mothers Of Invention, Dead At 73 [aneurysm]

June 7, 2024

Nebula Bassist Ranch Sironi Dies at 32

June 5, 2024

No cause of death reported.

Train star [bassist] Charlie Colin dies at 58 after ‘falling in shower’ as fans pay tribute to band’s founding member

May 22, 2024

Charlie Colin, founding member of the '90s pop rock band Train, died at 58

Dumpstaphunk bassist Nick Daniels III, a New Orleans funk stalwart for decades, has died [68, cancer]

April 27, 2024

Photos: The Who, John Legend, Juvenile beat the rain, please the crowds on Jazz Fest's Day 2 _lowres

Bassist Steve Kille of Dead Meadow passed away

April 18, 2024

No age or cause of death reported.

Danny Hargrove death, Bassist of The Joe Perry Project passed away

March 16, 2024

No age or cause of death reported.

Cobalt and Man’s Gin Bandleader Erik Wunder Dies at 42

August 4, 2025

No cause of death reported.

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

McCullough again is on the money, on target striking deep inside enemy territory, arguing again against the Malone Bourla Bancel Pfizer Moderna BioNTech Sahin Kariko et al. mRNA vaccine, I applaud him

Title of substack: “Why Synthetic mRNA is So Dangerous Killing 22 Government mRNA Programs Should be Just the Start”; McCullough is 100% correct & no excuse as to why Makary & RFK Jr. have not pulled

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 18

mRNA technology vaccine from the market. There is zero, no medical, clinical, scientific, no data, nothing to support continuance of the Malone et al. mRNA vaccine and LNP technology and delivery platform in its present and still untested state for safety and if it was ever beneficial. Moreover, given zero baseline risk now, no study can materialize, can be set up, no comparative clinical study, that can give meaningful estimates of effect.

‘By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.