099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1608
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 1
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 11
285 C NANHUA USA-HK 19
323 C HSBC 409
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 104
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 27
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2400
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 200
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 6 360
709 C BARCLAYS 78
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 16
905 C ADM 5
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 2622 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 262,200 OZ or 8.1555 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,050 contracts for 3,305,000 OR 102.799 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES:0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1720 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.600 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 29.045 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 10,000 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES AT 8.780 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 43.639 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.186 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS) +10.4932 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 114.6792 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 130.963 TONNES QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG 453 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,930 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 320 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 320 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 453 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 803 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.41 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.45 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.41 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.89 PTS OR 0.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 61.33 PTS OR 0.24%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 278.38 PTS OR 0.65% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1776 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1811/ Oil UP TO 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1776 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1811 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.74 PTS OR 0.02%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 53.95 PTS OR 0.21%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 168.02 PTS OR 0.38% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.76%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1821 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1855/ Oil DOWN TO 62.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 65.90 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1821 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1855 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 846 CONTRACTS TO 437,695 OI DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $29.95 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3954). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //WEDNESDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 4294 CONTRACTS (OR 13.35 TONNES). WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FRIDAY. THE CROOKS COULD NOT FLEECE ANY OF OUR NET LONGS AS THE COMEX LEVEL OI WAS EXTREMELY LOW AND THUS VERY VERY STICKY: AND AS SUCH THE OI ROSE A BIT DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY:
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AS MENTIONED ABOVE: TONIGHT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST;
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AUGUST 7 THE CME ANNOUNCED MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR AUGUST OF A MONSTER 1750 CONTRACTS FOR 175,000 OZ OR (5.4432 TONNES OF GOLD, THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD!!. WITH ALL THE CHAOS AT THE COMEX IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AUG 10 TOTALLING 776 CONTRACTS OR 77,600 OZ (2.418 TONNES).MUCH TO MY ANGER TONIGHT, THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 848 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 84,800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES.
THUS THE TOTAL FOR AUGUST IS 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400OZ OR 10.4932 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS. THE RECEPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY NOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND AS WE HAVE JUST LEARNED THAT THE FRBNY HAS RETURNED ONLY 14,000 OZ AS THEIR LOANS TO THE BIS REMAIN AT 34+ TONNES.(JULY 31 FIGURES) IT SEEMS NOW THAT THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS IN QUITE A HURRY TO GET ITS GOLD BACK!! (AND PROBABLE OWNER OF THOSE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS)
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 3 ISSUANCES FOR A MONSTER 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400 OZ ( 10.4932 TONNES)
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3108 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED A 710 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE AT MONTH END WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED THREE WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 43.639 TONNES +10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK (3 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 114.6792 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 236 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE 43.639 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 114.6792 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3954 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 3954 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3954 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS WILL APPEAR FOR SURE ON THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST AND MAYBE IT BEGAN STARTING TODAY AUGUST 21
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 710 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING SMALL GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S FIRST THREE ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.4932 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.263TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THURSDAY’S AUG 7 HUGE 5.4432 EXCHANGE FOR RISK, SATURDAY’S//MONDAY AUG 10 STRONG 776 CONTRACT ISSUANCE (77600 OZ) FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN WEDNESDAY.S AUGUST 12 FOR 2.637 TONNES/// TOTAL EX FOR RISK AUGUST = 10.4932 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
104.186 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
EQUALS
114.6792 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $29.95/ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION (SAVING IT TODAY, THURSDAY ///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH TUESDAY’S/RAID!.
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: THREE SO FAR, AUGUST 7 THROUGH AUG 12 AT 3374 CONTRACTS FOR 337,400 OZ (10.4932 TONNES OF GOLD) TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 10.4932 TONNES
THUS 14.186 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS) + 10.4932 TONNES = 114.6792 TONNES.
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ANALYSIS AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 9.667 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE TO WHICH WE ADD LAST AUG 8 RECORD BREAKING QUEUE JUMP OF 10.8775 TONNES OF GOLD ON TOP OF AUG 12 1.7604 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WEDNESDAY;S AUG 13 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.527 TONNES AND THEN THURSDAY AUG 14 A HUGE 2.463 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND FRIDAY;S AUG 15 QUEUE JUMP OF .7030 TONNES AND THEN SATURDAY’S 1.617 TONNE QUEUE JUMP AND THEN AUG 19: 1.058 QUEUE JUMP AND FINALLY TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.263 TONNES TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR FOR 10.4932 TONNES FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 114.6792 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $29.95
WE HAD 1186 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3108 CONTRACTS OR 310,800 0Z (9.667 TONNES)
confirmed volumeTHURSDAY 149,905 contracts// extremely poor//everybody vacating the comex???
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
AUGUST 21 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRY i) Into Asahi dealer: 9,352.03 oz total deposit 9352.03 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2622 notice(s) 262,200 OZ 8.1555 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 446 contracts 44600 OZ 1.3574 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 33,050 notices 3,305,000 oz 102.799 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits:
1 ENTRY
i) Into Asahi dealer: 9,352.03 oz
total deposit 9352.03 oz
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 3068 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 743CONTRACTS
WE HAD 306 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 1049 CONTRACTS OR 104,900 OZ OF GOLD (3.263 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AND THEIR APPETITE FOR THIS GOLD IS UNABATED!
SEPT LOST 348 CONTRACTS TO 4446
OCTOBER LOST 1070 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 60,031
We had 411 contracts filed for today representing 41,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 6 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2622 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 360 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,050 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 3068 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2622 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,349,600 OZ OR 104.186 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE ISSUANCES OF 10.4932 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/AUG 7 , 11 AND 12TH = 114.6792 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (33,050 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (3068 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2622 x 100 oz) which equals 3,349,600 OZ OR 104.186 TONNES + 10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 114.6792 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 114.6792TONNES WHICH IS A MONSTER FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. AND THIS RUNS COUNTER INTUATIVE TO OUR CONSTANT RAIDS
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,030,244.382 oz 63.14 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,573,264.036 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,299,461.853 or 662.50 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,274,302.183 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,259,256 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 599.04 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE AUGUST 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
AUGUST 21 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries: |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 36 contracts (0.180 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1720 Contracts (8.60 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
0 ENTRY
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0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entry:
ADJUSTMENTs 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.400 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 508.519 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 36 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX HAVING UNDERGONE AN EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON AS THESE GUYS COULD NOT WAIT ANY LONGER AS THEY ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 3249 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,387 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 202 CONTRACTS TO 1217
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 or NIL oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 75,190 good//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1720 X5,000 oz = 8.600 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (36) AND the number of notices served upon today (0 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (1720) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(36) minus number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 8.780 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 8.780 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.400 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/508.151 million. 41.33%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.37 TONNES/
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.51 TONNES/
JULY 8 WITH GOLD $24.65 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $0.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.66 TONNES/
JULY 2 WITH GOLD UP $8.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.23 TONNES/
JULY 1 WITH GOLD UP $43.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.53 TONNES/
JUNE 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.82 TONNES/
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.50 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.39 TONNES/
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.68 TONNES/
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $58.05 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 7.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.40 TONNES/SINCE JUNE 13 ADDED 24.49 TONNES
JUNE 23 WITH GOLD UP $9.25 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.599 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.241 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 958.21 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.47/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 0.999 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.18/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOST OF 2.136 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.176 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOST OF 0.727 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.040 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.34/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.917 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.313 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.36/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.049 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.21/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.272 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476,686 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.636 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.958 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.091 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.594 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.363 MILLION OZ IOUT OF THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.37/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 3.453 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.685 MILLION OZ.//FROM JUNE 2 A HUGE 19.264 MILLION OZ ADDED
JUNE 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.18/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:. A DEPOSIT OF 2.591 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.232 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.091 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
MARKET EAR:
The $4,000 Gold Dream: One Peace Deal Away from a Putin Punch
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 8:55
Gold on our minds
Gold continues to trade inside the boring range that has been in place for months. Note we are down to the 100 day moving average. Last time we bounced off the 100 day, things took off… Let’s examine the 4000 dream and if a “Putin Punch” can derail it.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Keeping the 4000 dream alive
GS: “We maintain our $4,000/toz forecast for mid-2026.“
Source: Goldman
How to get to 4000
Goldman’s 4000 price is driven by structurally strong central bank demand and ETF-inflows supported by Fed easing and a 30% US recession risk that could amplify inflows.
Source: Goldman
Another 4000
Yardeni: “We are still targeting a gold price of $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year.”
Source: Yardeni
Just a seasonal Central Bank lull
“Our June nowcast of central bank and institutional gold demand on the London OTC market came in at 16 tonnes, below our 2025 average forecast of 80 tonnes/month. This is consistent with the recent seasonal pattern: central bank purchases tend to slow in the summer and re-accelerate from September.”
Source: Goldman
The Putin connection
The price of gold has been rising ever since the US froze the foreign exchange reserves of Russia after the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The central banks of countries that don’t share America’s values and interests have been buying more gold and selling dollars.
Source: Yardeni
No need for a Putin Put
Goldman is not afraid of the potential “Putin Punch”: “While speculative clearing since April reduces near-term downside price risk, a Russia-Ukraine peace deal agreement could – in our view – still trigger a short-lived sell-off that we estimate at around 3% as speculators sell. Yet, we see little lasting impact on fundamentals.”
Re-routing reflation
“On the supply side, sanctioned Russian-produced gold is already reaching global markets through rerouting via the CIS (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan), the UAE, and Hong Kong. In fact, export volumes are now above pre-pandemic averages once rerouting is accounted for.” (Goldman)
Source: Global Trade Tracker
Far from big longs
Gold net non commercials have room to buy much more gold…
Source: LSEG Workspace
Lagging
Gold continues to lag little brother, silver. Chart 2 shows 3 months chart in %.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Source: LSEG Workspace
Dirt cheap
Gold volatility starting to screen as a bargain. Playing direction via options is very attractive given where volatility trades… and don’t forget that gold trades with an upside volatility skew, i.e gold up sharply usually means volatility picks up.
Source: LSEG Workspace
1/ PETER SCHIFF/S
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
GoldCore’s Jan Skoyles sees far bigger threats to wealth than gold confiscation
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-08-19 20:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:54p ET Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In her commentary for GoldCore today, Jan Skoyles explains why gold confiscation is far less a threat to investors and savers than financial repression, tax increases, and inflation, and why investors and savers can take good precautions against all those threats.
Her commentary is 16 minutes long and can be viewed at the GoldCore channel at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Gold gains traction in Islamic investing as rally spurs interest
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-08-19 10:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie
Bloomberg News
via News24, Cape Town, South Africa
Monday, August 18, 2025
In a small town an hour’s drive from Malaysia’s capital, a new, high-security vault illustrates the growing popularity of gold products and services designed to cater to Islamic principles.
Run by a subsidiary of Loomis AB, the Swedish cash- and bullion-handling company, together with local security firm E2S Group, the 20-ton facility in Nilai represents a push to tap into the nation’s burgeoning Islamic bullion sector.
“There’s a desire among local bullion dealers to have proper storage facilities,” Jeremy Beh, Loomis International’s country head in Singapore, said in an interview, before the site was inaugurated to an audience of traders, refiners and bankers last week. Several local banks have recently rolled out so-called halal gold investment products as demand has surged, he said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
OK I get it: gold from mines travels to London where it is then converted via Switzerland to gold bars and then this goes to China
(globe and mail)
Gold, not canola or coal, is China’s top import from Canada, at least according to China
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-08-18 19:52 Section: Daily Dispatches
China is the world’s leading gold-producing country, so why does it need to import gold from Canada? Is it because China sees gold as the world’s once and future money?
* * *
By Steven Chase
The Globe and Mail, Toronto
Monday, August 18, 2025
Gold bullion from Canada makes up a far greater portion of Chinese gold imports than is generally understood outside of China, according to data from the Asian country’s customs agency that has drawn little notice outside of professional circles here.
The total value of these imports, according to figures from China Customs, is more than 10 times higher than Canadian export statistics suggest — a discrepancy that hints at the full extent of the role trade between the two countries plays in the global gold market. In China’s eyes, gold is its No. 1 import from Canada by value, rather than the canola and coal shipments Canada records as its top exports.
The difference is not a result of an accounting lapse on either country’s part. Instead, it arises from a difference in perspective. Canada is unable to track where its exports end up if they change hands multiple times on their way to their ultimate buyer. But China Customs can and does require importers to track where their products originate.
This means that when Canada sells gold to bullion markets in London and New York, those exports are counted here as sales to Britain and the United States. But when China buys that same Canadian gold from those same markets, it considers the imports to be from Canada.
As a result, Statistics Canada says direct exports of unwrought gold — such as bars or bullion — to China and Hong Kong in 2024 amounted to $1.9 billion.
But the figures from China Customs say that China imported dramatically more from Canada: $25 billion in that same category of goods.
Although the Chinese figures are public, they are not routinely scrutinized in Canada. The Royal Canadian Mint and the Mining Association of Canada were both unable to offer insight into China’s gold import statistics.
Unlike canola or petroleum or coal, gold isn’t generally consumed or destroyed. Aside from some industrial applications, the world’s mined gold supply simply increases over time. According to the World Gold Council, a global industry association, the “above ground” stock of gold was 216,265 tonnes at the end of 2024.
China, however, has started amassing significant gold holdings, and gold investors appear to be unloading their supplies of Canadian bullion in response. The country’s central bank holdings of gold hit 2,292 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, up substantially from 1,800 tonnes in the same period in 2016. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
The $1-billion gold mine bringing death to desperate villagers in Tanzania
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-08-17 16:34 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jack Denton
The Sunday Times, London
Sunday, August 17, 2025
NYAMONGO, Tanzania — It was the middle of the night and Chacha was bound hand and foot, hanging upside down from a bridge spanning the crocodile-infested Mara River.
He was there because of the gold.
Masked men had abducted Chacha from Nyamongo, a village near the North Mara gold mine, one of Tanzania’s largest. He was transferred between police stations and tortured so badly he blacked out.
The men had two questions. Who was buying gold from him and other independent miners, and what did he know about the latest police killings at North Mara?
Gold has been coveted since ancient times but demand has rarely been as potent as it is now. The price has almost doubled since 2022, driven up by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns and, latterly, President Trump’s tariffs. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Uganda targets higher exports with first big gold mine (owned by China)
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-08-17 16:17 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Elias Biryabarema
Reuters
Sunday, August 17, 2025
KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda has inaugurated its first large-scale gold mine, a $250 million Chinese-owned project in the country’s east that will also refine the bullion to 99.9% purity, according to a statement from the president’s office.
The landlocked east African country, which has a variety of minerals including copper, cobalt, and iron ore, wants to expand its mining industry and position itself as a major gold producer and exporteR
Last year Uganda raised $3.4 billion from gold exports, according to central bank data, about 37% of the country’s total export revenue. The figure includes the re-export of gold brought into the country, with nearly all its domestic production from small-scale artisanal miners. …
… For the remainder of the report:
*END
Another gold rush could bring open pit mines to South Dakota’s Black Hills
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-08-17 09:37 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Sarah Raza
Associated Press
Saturday, August 16, 2025
SIOUX FALLS, South Dakota — A gold rush brought settlers to South Dakota’s Black Hills roughly 150 years ago, chasing the dream of wealth and displacing Native Americans in the process.
Now a new crop of miners driven by gold prices at more than $3,000 an ounce are seeking to return to the treasured landscape, promising an economic boost while raising fears of how modern gold extraction could forever change the region.
“These impacts can be long-term and make it so that tourism and outdoor recreation are negatively impacted,” said Lilias Jarding, executive director of the Black Hills Clean Water Alliance. “Our enjoyment of the Black Hills as a peaceful place, a sacred place, is disturbed.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 236
5. COMMODITY REPORT.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.89 PTS OR 0.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 61.33 PTS OR 0.24%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 278.38 PTS OR 0.65% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1776 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1811/ Oil UP TO 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1776 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1811 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1776 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1811
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 61.33 PTS OR 0.24%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 278.38PTS OR 0.65%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.13 EURO RISES TO 1.1655 UP 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.606//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.59…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7325Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.570 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.314
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWNTO 3.420
3j Gold at $3339.10 Silver at: 37.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 32 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.82
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.59/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.606% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8052 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.93.85 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.3079 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.913 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.760 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.94
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7150 UP 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.456UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.962 DOWN 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Slide For Fifth Day As Jackson Hole Jitters Rise
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 08:07 AM
US equity futures dropped, extending the recent selloff into its fifth day, as traders stayed guarded ahead of the Federal Reserve’s gathering at Jackson Hole. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat after a two-day selloff that erased 2% off the index. In premarket trading, Nvidia rose 0.8% while most Magnificent Seven peers posted losses. Retail giant Walmart brought Q2 earnings season to an unofficial close after reporting an EPS miss (68c vs exp. 74c) and even though it lifted guidance (now expects net sales to rise 3.75% to 4.75% this year, versus previous forecast of a 3% to 4%) that wasn’t enough for the market, however, and the stock dropped in premarket trading. European stocks dropped 0.3%, erasing an earlier gain, and snapping a three-day winning streak. US treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year higher to 4.31%. The dollar strengthened and reversed all of yesterday’s losses while Brent crude rose to the highest in two weeks even as the rest of the commodity complex was mixed. It’s a busy economic calendar: we get weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). The Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta -0.3%, Apple -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Aegon ADRs (AEG) are up 5% after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback. Management said the company may redomicile to the US, a move that Morgan Stanley said would “make sense.”
- Boeing Co. (BA) gains 1.5% as the company is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Canadian Solar (CSIQ) falls 11% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below analyst expectations.
- Coty (COTY) falls 20% after the personal care products company forecast steep sales declines and reported a wider-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter.
- Dayforce (DAY) rises 1.4% after entering into a definitive agreement with Thoma Bravo to become a privately held company in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $12.3 billion.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) gains 3.1% after being raised to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley as analysts note that recently-closed Juniper deal will be an earnings upside.
- SharkNinja (SN) trades lower by 2% as holders affiliated with Chairperson CJ Xuning Wang offer 5 million shares in the household-appliance maker via JPMorgan, BofA Securities.
- Two Harbors Investment (TWO) falls 3% after the mortgage REIT resolved litigation with Pine River via a one-time $375m cash settlement and cut its quarterly dividend to 34c a share.
- Walmart (WMT) slips 2.4% after the world’s largest retailer posted second quarter profit that disappointed.
In corporate news, FanDuel, the online gambling division of Flutter Entertainment, is teaming up with CME Group, the largest US derivatives exchange, to offer bets on stocks, commodity prices and even inflation. Google introduced a new slate of consumer gadgets, including several smartphones, a watch and new wireless earbuds, all meant to show off the company’s latest advances in artificial intelligence. Musk‘s Starlink service is said to be in conversation with Emirates and other Middle Eastern airlines, with winning business in the region potentially marking a watershed moment in Starlink’s global competition.
This week has seen pressure on momentum names (read tech stocks) particularly the largest names, amid worries that their sharp rally since April has moved too far, too fast. Traders are also cautious as the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off later today, with investors awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 10am ET Friday for guidance on the path for interest rates. Despite the pullback in stocks this week, the VIX hasn’t really budged, and Goldman said it’s time to buy the dip in momentum stocks (and the overall market according to JPMorgan).
The market’s direction today will also be shaped by PMIs, home sales data and Walmart earnings (which missed but boosted its revenue forecast). For the euro area, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn.
“What we are currently seeing is profit-taking and a natural flight to quality ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole,” said John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion. But “let’s not beat around the bush: this is not the end of tech, and even less so for stocks linked to artificial intelligence.”
Swaps are currently pricing in 80% chance of a Fed quarter-point cut in September, and at least three more over the next year, some strategists warned that the market may be too optimistic about the pace and depth of easing.
“All it’s going to take is a bit of stickiness in inflation and actually a labor market print which shows it’s not falling off a cliff for the market to say, ‘hang on,’” Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV.
In his latest effort to stack the Fed board, Trump and his allies are demanding Fed Governor Lisa Cook resign over alleged owner-occupancy fraud. For her part, Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank.
Yesterday, the latest FOMC Minutes for the July 29-30 meeting showed most officials viewed inflation risks as outweighing labor-market concerns, with tariffs fueling a growing divide within the rate-setting committee, though the discussions came before subsequent dramatic dire revisions to jobs data.
On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control — including Ukrainian territory that Russia isn’t occupying — as the US tries to broker a peace deal between the two nations. Brent crude rose 0.8%.
The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% with media, consumer product and chemical shares leading declines. Nordics represented several of the region’s biggest movers, with hearing-aid maker GN Store Nord surging 19% after reporting earnings, while Norwegian oil firm Aker BP jumped after a large oil find in the North Sea. UK retailer WH Smith plunged after signaling North American profit will be much weaker than previously hoped. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Aegon shares jump as much as 7.4%, reaching a 10-year high, after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback
- GN Store Nord gains as much as 19% after the Danish hearing aid and audio equipment firm’s 2Q earnings beat estimates across the board. Analysts see a strong showing following weaker reports from European peers
- Aker BP shares rise as much as 4.6% after the Norwegian industrial investment company announced a “significant oil discovery” as it completed the Omega Alfa exploration campaign in the Norwegian North Sea
- ALK-Abello gains as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Danish allergy drugmaker reported 2Q earnings. Analysts say that while the report holds few surprises after the company pre-released figures, they reassured
- Salmar gains as much as 6.1%, the most since April, after the Norwegian salmon firm reported its latest earnings, which DNB Carnegie described as in line, with “positive” cost and volume guidance for the rest of the year
- DNO gains as much as 11%, the most since 2023, after the Norwegian oil company reported its latest earnings and hiked its dividend per share by around 20%. DNB Carnegie expects the raised payouts to support the shares
- Renishaw shares rise as much as 8.9% to the highest since February after the precision measuring equipment maker indicated its adjusted pretax profit for the full year will be at the high end of the guidance range
- WH Smith shares plummet as much as 38%, the biggest drop on record, after the retailer warned headline trading profit from North America will be significantly lower than previously hoped
- CTS Eventim shares slide as much as 20%, the most since 2007, after the events firm reported 2Q Ebitda well below estimates. The firm cited “intense and persistent cost pressures” for live events and headwinds in other divisions
- Novonesis falls as much as 7.8% after the Danish biotechnology group reported earnings. Analysts say a profitability miss and merely reiterated margin guidance disappointed, and will lead to slight consensus cuts
- European stocks in the beauty and personal care sector fell after US company Coty reported a wider adjusted loss per share in 4Q than analysts expected, while forecasting steep sales declines will continue
- Sensirion falls as much as 8.2% after both Berenberg and Research Partners downgraded the semiconductor device manufacturer to hold from buy following its first-half earnings
- UK housebuilders are under pressure on Thursday as London builders are taking longer to start home constructions after receiving permits, with a slump in demand threatening to derail the government’s plan to build 1.5m homes
- Kojamo declines as much as 5.9% following its second-quarter results, with JPMorgan retaining its underweight rating and a cautious stance on the real estate company
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a tight range, as a rebound in some tech stocks was offset by declines in Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo among the top drags after a series of block trades at a discount. Hon Hai and TSMC were among the biggest boosts for the gauge. Shares hit a record high in Australia, while those in South Korea and Taiwan also advanced. Investors are awaiting cues from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday. Nvidia’s results next week will be another key test, with expectations for improving global tech earnings having bolstered sentiment. Equities also traded higher in mainland China, Vietnam and New Zealand on Thursday. MSCI equity gauges for every nation in the region are trading above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since 2021, according to Sentimentrader.com.
In FX, the euro and pound both edge higher against the greenback after the better-than-expected PMI data. The Norwegian krone is the best-performing G-10 currency, rising 0.5% after Norway’s GDP grew more than forecast in the second quarter.
In rates, treasuries are under pressure in early US trading amid steeper losses for most European bond markets sparked by stronger-than-anticipated August preliminary PMI gauges. US yields are higher by 1bp-2bp, the 10-year by about 1.8bp at 4.31%, vs increases of 3bp-4bp for UK and most euro-zone counterparts. US session features 30-year TIPS reopening auction at 1pm New York time. Week’s major focal point is Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. UK gilts are leading declines in European government bonds after the UK private sector expanded at the strongest pace in 12 months. UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.70%. German 10-year borrowing costs add 2 bps to 2.73% after the euro area’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), August preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
- DAX -0.1%
- CAC 40 -0.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.3%
- VIX +0.2 points at 15.93
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.17
- euro little changed at $1.1658
- WTI crude +1% at $63.35/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Fed reserve governor Lisa Cook has defied calls from Trump to resign, saying she has “no intention of being bullied to step down” after FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted he was making a criminal referral based on a mortgage application from four years ago: FT
- The Texas House approved a new congressional map that may add up to five GOP seats in the 2026 midterms. In California, the state’s top court declined to halt Governor Gavin Newsom’s own redistricting plan, which he’s pursuing to offset the moves in Texas and elsewhere. BBG
- Meta Platforms has frozen hiring in its artificial-intelligence division after spending months scooping up 50-plus AI researchers and engineers. WSJ
- South Korea will unveil an additional $150 billion in US investment from private firms during Lee Jae Myung’s summit with Trump, local media said. BBG
- The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected. BBG
- China is aggressively trying to persuade domestic tech firms to avoid buying Nvidia chips following “insulting” remarks from Commerce Sec Lutnick. FT
- Japan’s 20-year yields hit their highest since 1999 amid fiscal concerns and fading demand from key investors. Yields on 30-year notes approached a new high. BBG
- India’s flash PMIs for Aug are strong, including manufacturing (59.8, up from 59.1 in Jul) and especially services (65.6, a big jump from 60.5 in Jul). S&P
- Russia warned on Wednesday that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations championed by President Trump. Russia’s Lavrov also played down likelihood of a summit between Russia/Ukraine leaders happening soon. WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s Commerce Minister talked with Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister and said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade, while China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields and accelerate the cultivation of new trade formats.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes. ASX 200 outperformed amid a slew of earnings releases and breached the 9,000 level for the first time in history. Nikkei 225 was dragged lower by weakness in pharmaceuticals and automakers, with the latter not helped by reports that Japanese automakers are passing some of the expense of US tariffs through to American car buyers, which is a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led lower by underperformance in tech stocks including Baidu and Xiaomi, despite both recently reporting a jump in profits, while the mainland remained propped up following the PBoC’s liquidity efforts.
Top Asian News
- Asian petrochemicals shares rise as China is set to launch a sweeping overhaul of its petrochemicals and oil refining sector to phase out smaller facilities and target outdated operations for upgrades.
- Chinese biomedical shares rise after Premier Li Qiang toured company sites and emphasized the need to increase scientific and technological backing as well as policy support for the sector.
- Chinese crypto-linked stocks rally after a report that the government is considering a plan for expanded yuan use and stablecoins.
- Sonic Healthcare shares slide as much as 10%, the most since May 2024, after the Australian diagnostics and pathology firm reported net income for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate.
- South Korea’s Financial Services Commission urges financial firms to provide necessary support in the course of the nation’s petrochemical industry restructuring, according to a statement from the financial regulator.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading with little in the way of a clear bias. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced early doors after Ukraine’s Air Force stated that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. Focus also on EZ PMIs which saw the saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. European equity sectors show a mostly negative tilt with stock-specific updates relatively light. Energy names sit at the top of the leaderboard amid upside in underlying crude prices. To the downside, Media names lag with Wolters Kluwer (-2.2%) a notable underperformer in the sector following a PT reduction at Morgan Stanley.
Top European News
- The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected.
FX
- Steady trade for DXY after a session yesterday, which was dominated by newsflow surrounding the Fed. US rates markets endured a steepening of the curve, led by the front-end amid reporting that President Trump could fire Fed Governor Cook amid alleged mortgage fraud. Thereafter, attention pivoted to the account of the July policy announcement, which was viewed with a hawkish lens. DXY sits towards the mid-point of Wednesday’s 98.07-44 range.
- EUR saw some pressure early doors after comments from Ukraine’s Air Force that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. This has helped reinforce the message that despite a more encouraging direction of travel for peace talks, the reality on the ground remains tense between Russia and Ukraine. Some of the pessimism was faded following flash PMI metrics from across the Eurozone with a solid report from France kickstarting the recovery and followed by a mostly positive German release. The EZ-wide print saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. EUR/USD sits just above its 50DMA at 1.1645.
- JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD after a session of gains on Wednesday, which were in part driven by a refocus on interest-rate differentials as the front-end of the US curve was dragged lower by the possibility of Fed Governor Cook being removed from her position. Overnight, there was little follow-through seen from mixed flash Japanese PMI metrics for August, which saw the manufacturing metric tick higher from its prior (but remain sub-50) and services fall from its previous (but remain above 50). USD/JPY sits within Wednesday’s 146.87-147.81.
- GBP is the marginal outperformer across the majors following a better-than-expected outturn for flash August services and composite PMIs, which rose further into expansionary territory. Cable has picked up from its 1.3436 session low with a current session peak at 1.3476.
- Antipodeans are both are a touch softer vs. the USD with NZD unable to launch much of a recovery from Wednesday’s RBNZ-induced losses and AUD failing to garner any support from upticks in flash PMI metrics for August. AUD/USD is at its lowest level since June 23rd with focus on a test of the 0.64 mark and the 200DMA @ 0.6386.
Fixed Income
- USTs began the European session around the unchanged mark, with price action fairly tentative in a continuation of the lacklustre trade seen overnight. As the European morning kicked off, trade has largely been dictated by Bunds, which have had a number of regional PMIs to digest (more in Bunds below). US paper currently trades lower by a handful of ticks, in a 111-24 to 111-29 range, currently contained within the prior day’s confines. Looking ahead, weekly initial jobless claims and US PMIs alongside Fed speak from Bostic and Schmid.
- Bund Sept’25 started the European session around the unchanged mark and then slipped on both the French and then German PMI metrics, which overall highlighted the ongoing strength in the Manufacturing sector, whilst Services was a little more subdued. The EZ wide figure confirmed the strong Manufacturing / slightly softer Services picture, with the former surprisingly climbing into expansionary territory. In terms of the commentary, it highlighted that “U.S. trade policy is leaving its mark. Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row”.
- Gilts traded subdued throughout the European morning, taking leads from the hotter-than-expected PMI metrics in Europe. Into the region’s own figures, UK paper traded lower by around 15 ticks. Thereafter, on the region’s own PMI metrics, Gilts fell from 90.99 to 90.91 before trimming half of the move; currently trading in a 90.82 to 91.22 range. Unlike in Europe, the upside in Composite was thanks to strength in the Services sector whilst Manufacturing was subdued. It is worth highlighting that the accompanying release was fairly downbeat; “Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate”; “the demand environment remains both uneven and fragile”.
- France sells EUR 10.499bln vs exp. EUR 8.5-10.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, and 2.70% 2031 OAT.
Commodities
- Modestly positive trade in the crude complex in what has been a quiet session thus far, but with eyes remaining on geopolitics amid a couple of notable updates. WTI resides in a USD 62.78-63.40/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.88-67.49/bbl parameter.
- Softer trade across precious metals, albeit modest in spot gold and silver, with newsflow on the lighter side and with the metals largely moving in tandem with the dollar. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex subdued, with spot gold on either side of its 50 DMA (~3,348.10/oz) in a USD 3,334.28.56-3,352.30/oz range.
- Subdued price action across the base metals complex – in fitting with the broader market mood as traders look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,689.45-9,739.40/t range.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to avoid massive death and destruction in Gaza City, while he called for Israel to reverse its decision to expand the illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Geopolitics: UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.
- Moscow to host first nuclear summit on September 25″, according to Al Arabiya.
- Ukraine President Zelensky said Kyiv wants to have an understanding of security guarantees within 7-10 days, followed by bilateral and trilateral leaders meetings. If Russia is not ready for a bilateral leaders meeting, Ukraine and Europe want to see strong US reaction. ‘Flamingo’ missile is Ukraine’s most successful missile, mass production expected by early next year. Ukrainian proposal for US drone deal entails production worth USD 50bln over five years. Ten million drones expected to be produced yearly as part of the deal. China not included in security guarantees because China did not help after the Russian invasion. On Budapest as venue for peace talks: “For now, this is challenging.”Ukraine will not legally recognise Russia’s occupation of its territories. There is no signal that Moscow is prepared to end the war and have substantial conversations. Ukraine has tested a new long-range missile.
- Ukrainian President Zelenksy’s Chief of Staff warned against repeating mistakes of the 1994 Budapest memorandum on security guarantees and said Ukraine’s allies have started active work on the military aspect of security guarantees, while a contingency plan is being developed with partners in case Russia extends the war or violates agreements from leaders’ meetings.
- US VP Vance said on Fox News that Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. It was separately reported that a Pentagon top policy official told a small group of allies Tuesday night that the US plans to play a minimal role in any Ukraine security guarantees, according to POLITICO citing Defense Undersecretary for Policy Colby.
- Turkish defence ministry source said ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine needed before discussing peacekeeping mission framework, via Reuters citing sources.
- Russia attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station vital for storage operations, according to Reuters sources.
- Ukraine military said it hit a Russian oil refinery, drone warehouse and fuel base overnight.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the US mainland, according to a new report cited by the WSJ.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225.33k, prior 224k
- 8:30 am: Aug 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1960k, prior 1953k
- 8:30 am: Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 6.5, prior 15.9
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.7, prior 49.8
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 54.2, prior 55.7
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 53.5, prior 55.1
- 10:00 am: Jul Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
- 10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales, est. 3.92m, prior 3.93m
- 10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.25%, prior -2.7%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
While the headline market moves were fairly muted over the past 24 hours, investors had to navigate a couple of major narratives. One was renewed concerns over Fed independence as President Trump suggested that Fed Governor Cook should resign, which pushed gold (+0.98%) to its best day since the weak July payrolls report on August 1. The other was continued pressure on tech stocks as the Mag-7 (-1.11%) posted consecutive declines of more than 1% for the first time since the post-Liberation Day sell-off in early April. This sent the S&P 500 (-0.24%) lower for a fourth session running even as the index recovered most of its -1% intra-day decline.
The topic of the US administration’s influence over the Fed came back into the headlines as Trump posted that Fed Governor “Cook must resign, now!!!”. His post followed news that Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte had written a criminal investigation referral letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi alleging that Governor Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud. Pulte has been one of the staunchest Fed critics within the administration, earlier calling for an investigation into Chair Powell over the Fed’s building renovations. Yesterday Pulte claimed that the allegations give Trump “cause to fire” Governor Cook. Later in the day, Cook said in a statement that she had “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position”.
Governor Cook was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by Joe Biden in 2022 and our US economists see her as leaning slightly towards to dovish end within the FOMC. Were Governor Cook to resign or be fired, that would create another opening for Trump to fill on the seven-person Board. With Stephen Miran nominated to take the seat recently vacated by Governor Kugler and two Fed Governors – Bowman and Waller – dissenting to vote for a rate cut at the July meeting, this would increase the prospects of a dovish majority emerging on the Board, especially if Chair Powell relinquishes his seat next year. That said, if concerns over threats to Fed independence increase, Powell could choose to serve out the rest of his board term (which ends in 2028) even after his term as Chair ends next May.
The news was a reminder of the lingering concerns over future Fed independence and risks of fiscal dominance, though the extent of the market reaction was fairly modest. The most sustained reaction was in gold (+0.98%) as mentioned at the top. The dollar index fell by a couple of tenths following the news but was back to little changed (-0.05%) by the close. Front-end yields fell by 3-4bps, but that move came amid a broader risk-off mood early in the session and also reversed later on.
By the close, 10yr Treasury yields were -1.5bps lower at 4.29% but 2yr yields were unchanged at 3.75%. This curve flattening was also supported by hawkish-leaning minutes of the July FOMC meeting. These showed that most of the FOMC “judged the upside risk to inflation” as greater than the “downside risk to employment”, with several participants noting the “risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored”. That said, the minutes did suggest easing would be warranted “if labor market conditions were to weaken materially”, and given the weak jobs report that followed the July decision, the relative focus on employment versus inflation risks will likely have shifted since. So, while pricing of September rate cut inched down yesterday to its lowest since the August 1 jobs report, a 25bp cut was still 83% priced.
US equities saw an even larger round trip, with a rout for tech stocks early in session leaving the S&P 500 more than -1% down intra-day but recovering to -0.24% by the close. The NASDAQ fell -0.67%, having been almost -2% down early on, while the Mag-7 slid by -1.11% after a -1.67% drop on Tuesday. The last time the Mag-7 saw consecutive declines of more than 1% was during the post-Liberation Day collapse in early April. The tech sell-off may have been exacerbated by reporting of an MIT study claiming that 95% of enterprises adopting AI saw no measurable increase in profits. Here at DB research, we remain optimistic on the productivity impact of AI but the report is a reminder that successful integration of new technologies takes time and that it’s still uncertain who will be the biggest end beneficiaries of the AI wave. Outside of tech, US equities had a decent day, with most of the S&P 500 sectors advancing, led by energy (+0.86%) which benefited as Brent crude prices rose +1.60% to $66.84/bbl.
Turning to Europe, we saw the latest rate decision from Sweden’s Riksbank, which kept rates on hold at 2.00% as expected while continuing to signal “some probability of a further interest rate cut this year”. Market pricing of another rate cut by year-end inched down to 88% from 91% the day before. We also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that “Recent trade deals have alleviated, but certainly not eliminated, global uncertainty” and noted that the euro area economy was likely to see slower growth this quarter. So that was arguably a bit more dovish in tone than her press conference last month, though Lagarde gave away little on the policy outlook.
Expectations of ECB easing ticked up on the day, with 21bps of cuts now priced by next June, the highest this has been in almost two weeks. In turn, European government bonds rallied with 10yr bund yields falling -3.2bps to 2.72%, and OAT (-2.2bps) and BTP (-3.0bps) yields similarly moving lower. Bunds were also supported by Germany’s PPI inflation print (-1.5% yoy vs -1.4% expected) falling to a 13-month low in July. Meanwhile, the euro area final headline CPI for July came in line with the flash reading at 2.0%.
Over in the UK, gilts yields saw a larger rally, with 10yr yields down -6.8bps to 4.67%. This came despite July CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected at +3.8% yoy for both headline and core inflation (vs +3.7% expected), which marked the highest headline reading since January 2024. A saving grace noted by our UK economist Sanjay Raja is that with the volatile transport and travel services components driving the upside, most core services metrics ticked down on the month (see Sanjay’s reaction here). Money markets moved to price in more BoE easing for early 2026 following the release, with the amount of cuts priced by next June rising +5.5bps to 38bps.
The repricing in UK rates helped the FTSE 100 outperform (+1.01%). The Stoxx 600 rose +0.24% but continental indices were more subdued, with the CAC (+0.06%) posting a marginal gain but the DAX (-0.69%) and FTSE MIB (-0.36%) losing ground.
Overnight, sentiment has turned risk-on again in most Asian equity markets. The KOSPI is up +0.73%, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) is leading the way after a strong flash PMI print. Australia’s composite PMI rose from 53.8 to 54.9 and the manufacturing index reached a 35-month high of 52.9. Chinese stocks are on also the rise, with the CSI (+0.72%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) higher though the Hang Seng (-0.10%) is lagging. Meanwhile, US equity futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are little changed after yesterday’s decline.
The one Asian market defying the regional positive trend is Japan, with the Nikkei down -0.58%. That comes despite Japan’s composite PMI rising to a 6-month high of 51.9 in the August flash reading (up from 51.6 in July), as stabilization in manufacturing (49.9 vs 48.9 in July) has offset slowing services growth (52.7 vs 53.6 in July). However, long-end JGB yields are inching higher to new multi-decade highs ahead of the July inflation print tomorrow morning, with the 30yr yield up +0.7bps to 3.18%, a new all-time high since this tenor was introduced in 1999.
To the day ahead, the main highlight will be the August flash PMI prints in Europe and the US. Other data releases include the August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July existing home sales and weekly jobless claims in the US as well as August Eurozone consumer confidence. Earnings include Walmart, Intuit, and Workday. The Fed’s Bostic is due to speak, while the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins this evening with the main events on Friday and Saturday.
2b European opening report
US equity futures are modestly lower into Fed speak, Bunds pressured post-PMI – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 06:37 AM
- Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.
- European bourses tilt lower with the region unable to benefit from better-than-feared PMIs; US equity futures are mixed.
- USD is mixed vs. peers, GBP is top of the G10 leaderboard post-PMI.
- Bonds are pressured after PMIs, lower UK borrowing fails to lift spirits ahead of the Autumn Budget
- Crude is firmer as geopolitics remain in the limelight; Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.
- Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fedʼs Bostic, Schmid, Goolsbee, Supply from US, Earnings from Walmart.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s Commerce Minister talked with Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister and said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade, while China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields and accelerate the cultivation of new trade formats.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading with little in the way of a clear bias. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced early doors after Ukraine’s Air Force stated that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. Focus also on EZ PMIs which saw the saw the composite move further into expansionary territory.
- European equity sectors show a mostly negative tilt with stock-specific updates relatively light. Energy names sit at the top of the leaderboard amid upside in underlying crude prices. To the downside, Media names lag with Wolters Kluwer (-2.2%) a notable underperformer in the sector following a PT reduction at Morgan Stanley.
- US equity futures are trading mixed/flat (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY -0.4%) after Wednesday’s mostly soft close, which saw a continuation of big-tech weakness.
- Tesla (TSLA) partially evacuates German plant following fire in battery pack processing facility, according to Handelsblatt.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – Beijing summoned Chinese tech companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu to discuss their use of NVIDIA chips and encourage them to use more homegrown options, according to Nikkei sources.
- Apple (AAPL) will open a new store in India’s southern tech hub of Bangalore early next month, “ramping up its push into a key growth market”, according to Bloomberg
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- Steady trade for DXY after a session yesterday, which was dominated by newsflow surrounding the Fed. US rates markets endured a steepening of the curve, led by the front-end amid reporting that President Trump could fire Fed Governor Cook amid alleged mortgage fraud. Thereafter, attention pivoted to the account of the July policy announcement, which was viewed with a hawkish lens. DXY sits towards the mid-point of Wednesday’s 98.07-44 range.
- EUR saw some pressure early doors after comments from Ukraine’s Air Force that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. This has helped reinforce the message that despite a more encouraging direction of travel for peace talks, the reality on the ground remains tense between Russia and Ukraine. Some of the pessimism was faded following flash PMI metrics from across the Eurozone with a solid report from France kickstarting the recovery and followed by a mostly positive German release. The EZ-wide print saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. EUR/USD sits just above its 50DMA at 1.1645.
- JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD after a session of gains on Wednesday, which were in part driven by a refocus on interest-rate differentials as the front-end of the US curve was dragged lower by the possibility of Fed Governor Cook being removed from her position. Overnight, there was little follow-through seen from mixed flash Japanese PMI metrics for August, which saw the manufacturing metric tick higher from its prior (but remain sub-50) and services fall from its previous (but remain above 50). USD/JPY sits within Wednesday’s 146.87-147.81.
- GBP is the marginal outperformer across the majors following a better-than-expected outturn for flash August services and composite PMIs, which rose further into expansionary territory. Cable has picked up from its 1.3436 session low with a current session peak at 1.3476.
- Antipodeans are both are a touch softer vs. the USD with NZD unable to launch much of a recovery from Wednesday’s RBNZ-induced losses and AUD failing to garner any support from upticks in flash PMI metrics for August. AUD/USD is at its lowest level since June 23rd with focus on a test of the 0.64 mark and the 200DMA @ 0.6386.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1287 vs exp. 7.1748 (Prev. 7.1384)
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs began the European session around the unchanged mark, with price action fairly tentative in a continuation of the lacklustre trade seen overnight. As the European morning kicked off, trade has largely been dictated by Bunds, which have had a number of regional PMIs to digest (more in Bunds below). US paper currently trades lower by a handful of ticks, in a 111-24 to 111-29 range, currently contained within the prior day’s confines. Looking ahead, weekly initial jobless claims and US PMIs alongside Fed speak from Bostic and Schmid.
- Bund Sept’25 started the European session around the unchanged mark and then slipped on both the French and then German PMI metrics, which overall highlighted the ongoing strength in the Manufacturing sector, whilst Services was a little more subdued. The EZ wide figure confirmed the strong Manufacturing / slightly softer Services picture, with the former surprisingly climbing into expansionary territory. In terms of the commentary, it highlighted that “U.S. trade policy is leaving its mark. Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row”.
- Gilts traded subdued throughout the European morning, taking leads from the hotter-than-expected PMI metrics in Europe. Into the region’s own figures, UK paper traded lower by around 15 ticks. Thereafter, on the region’s own PMI metrics, Gilts fell from 90.99 to 90.91 before trimming half of the move; currently trading in a 90.82 to 91.22 range. Unlike in Europe, the upside in Composite was thanks to strength in the Services sector whilst Manufacturing was subdued. It is worth highlighting that the accompanying release was fairly downbeat; “Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate”; “the demand environment remains both uneven and fragile”.
- France sells EUR 10.499bln vs exp. EUR 8.5-10.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, and 2.70% 2031 OAT.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Modestly positive trade in the crude complex in what has been a quiet session thus far, but with eyes remaining on geopolitics amid a couple of notable updates. WTI resides in a USD 62.78-63.40/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.88-67.49/bbl parameter.
- Softer trade across precious metals, albeit modest in spot gold and silver, with newsflow on the lighter side and with the metals largely moving in tandem with the dollar. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex subdued, with spot gold on either side of its 50 DMA (~3,348.10/oz) in a USD 3,334.28.56-3,352.30/oz range.
- Subdued price action across the base metals complex – in fitting with the broader market mood as traders look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,689.45-9,739.40/t range.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug). 50.5 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.8); EU HCOB Services Flash PMI (Aug). 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51); EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Aug). 51.1 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.9); US trade policy is leaving its mark. Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row”
- French HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug), 49.9 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 48.2); Services Flash PMI (Aug), 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5); Composite Flash PMI (Aug), 49.8 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.6)
- German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug), 49.9 vs. Exp. 48.8 (Prev. 49.1); Services Flash PMI (Aug), 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.6); Composite Flash PMI (Aug), 50.9 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.6)
- UK Flash Composite PMI (Aug), 53.0 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.5); Manufacturing PMI (Aug), 47.3 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48); Services PMI (Aug), 53.6 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 51.8)
- UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Jul) 1.054B GB vs. Exp. 2.6B GB (Prev. 20.684B GB, Rev. 22.560B GB).
- UK PSNCR, GBP (Jul) 3.002B GB (Prev. -16.108B GB, Rev. -16.367B GB)
- Norwegian GDP Growth Mainland (Q2) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%)
- Norwegian GDP Growth (Q2) 0.8% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Swiss Trade (Jul) 4.591B (Prev. 5.790B, Rev. 5.726B); Watch Exports +6.9% Y/Y (prev. -5.6%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed Governor Cook said she learned from the media that FHFA Director Pulte posted he was making a criminal referral based on a mortgage application from four years ago, before she joined the Fed, while she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet. Furthermore, she intends to take any questions about her financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and is gathering accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.
- Texas House approved the Trump-backed congressional map that would give Republicans more seats on Capitol Hill, igniting national redistricting fights, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to avoid massive death and destruction in Gaza City, while he called for Israel to reverse its decision to expand the illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.
- Moscow to host first nuclear summit on September 25″, according to Al Arabiya.
- Ukraine President Zelensky said Kyiv wants to have an understanding of security guarantees within 7-10 days, followed by bilateral and trilateral leaders meetings. If Russia is not ready for a bilateral leaders meeting, Ukraine and Europe want to see strong US reaction. ‘Flamingo’ missile is Ukraine’s most successful missile, mass production expected by early next year. Ukrainian proposal for US drone deal entails production worth USD 50bln over five years. Ten million drones expected to be produced yearly as part of the deal. China not included in security guarantees because China did not help after the Russian invasion. On Budapest as venue for peace talks: “For now, this is challenging.”Ukraine will not legally recognise Russia’s occupation of its territories. There is no signal that Moscow is prepared to end the war and have substantial conversations. Ukraine has tested a new long-range missile.
- Ukrainian President Zelenksy’s Chief of Staff warned against repeating mistakes of the 1994 Budapest memorandum on security guarantees and said Ukraine’s allies have started active work on the military aspect of security guarantees, while a contingency plan is being developed with partners in case Russia extends the war or violates agreements from leaders’ meetings.
- US VP Vance said on Fox News that Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. It was separately reported that a Pentagon top policy official told a small group of allies Tuesday night that the US plans to play a minimal role in any Ukraine security guarantees, according to POLITICO citing Defense Undersecretary for Policy Colby.
- Turkish defence ministry source said ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine needed before discussing peacekeeping mission framework, via Reuters citing sources.
- Russia attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station vital for storage operations, according to Reuters sources.
- Ukraine military said it hit a Russian oil refinery, drone warehouse and fuel base overnight.
OTHER
- North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the US mainland, according to a new report cited by the WSJ.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around USD 113k, whilst Ethereum gains and trades around USD 4.2k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.
- ASX 200 outperformed amid a slew of earnings releases and breached the 9,000 level for the first time in history.
- Nikkei 225 was dragged lower by weakness in pharmaceuticals and automakers, with the latter not helped by reports that Japanese automakers are passing some of the expense of US tariffs through to American car buyers, which is a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led lower by underperformance in tech stocks including Baidu and Xiaomi, despite both recently reporting a jump in profits, while the mainland remained propped up following the PBoC’s liquidity efforts.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug). 49.9 (Prev. 48.9)
- Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug). 52.7 (Prev. 53.6)
- Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug). 51.9 (Prev. 51.6)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug). 52.9 (Prev. 51.3)
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug). 55.1 (Prev. 54.1)
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug). 54.9 (Prev. 53.8)
2c) Asian opening report
European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open into Global Flash PMIs, DXY is flat – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 01:56 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.
- FOMC Minutes from the July meeting noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.
- Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs, UK PSNB, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fed’s Bostic, Supply from France & US, Earnings from Walmart.
SNAPSHOT
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks saw two-way price action on Wednesday but ultimately closed mixed with a downward bias as recent big-tech weakness continued to weigh on indices, while the equal-weight S&P was marginally lower. Elsewhere, T-notes were firmer for a lot of the session but ultimately settled little changed, with initial upside led by the front-end after US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign and reports suggested he is considering firing her amid alleged mortgage fraud.
- However, the upside then faded into the FOMC Minutes, which leaned hawkish, with the majority of participants more concerned about risks to inflation over the labour market, although the minutes do not incorporate the latest NFP data with chunky two-month revisions.
- SPX -0.24% at 6,396, NDX -0.58% at 23,250, DJI +0.04% at 44,938, RUT -0.32% at 2,269.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
FOMC MINUTES
- FOMC Minutes stated that almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25-4.5% range, as well as noted that it would take time to have more clarity on the magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs’ effects on inflation. Regarding the balance of risks, participants assessed that the downside risk to employment had meaningfully increased. However, a majority judged that upside risks to inflation were the greater risk when compared to the labour market, while several viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple considered the downside risk to employment the more salient risk. Several participants, drawing on information provided by business contacts or business surveys, expected that many companies would increasingly have to pass through tariff costs to end-customers over time. However, a few participants reported that business contacts and survey respondents described a mix of strategies as being undertaken to avoid fully passing on tariff costs to customers. Furthermore, several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level; among the considerations cited in support of this assessment was the likelihood that broader financial conditions were either neutral or supportive of stronger economic activity.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s Commerce Minister talked with Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister and said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade, while China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields and accelerate the cultivation of new trade formats.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Governor Cook said she learned from the media that FHFA Director Pulte posted he was making a criminal referral based on a mortgage application from four years ago, before she joined the Fed, while she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet. Furthermore, she intends to take any questions about her financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and is gathering accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.
- WSJ’s Timiraos wrote “The Fed minutes suggest broad support for last month’s decision to hold rates steady. They imply that had it not been for the crummy payroll revisions two days after the meeting, a rate cut in September could very much be in doubt.”
- Texas House approved the Trump-backed congressional map that would give Republicans more seats on Capitol Hill, igniting national redistricting fights, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.
- ASX 200 outperformed amid a slew of earnings releases and breached the 9,000 level for the first time in history.
- Nikkei 225 was dragged lower by weakness in pharmaceuticals and automakers, with the latter not helped by reports that Japanese automakers are passing some of the expense of US tariffs through to American car buyers, which is a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led lower by underperformance in tech stocks including Baidu and Xiaomi, despite both recently reporting a jump in profits, while the mainland remained propped up following the PBoC’s liquidity efforts.
- US equity futures traded rangebound amid ongoing tentativeness as participants continued to await Fed Chair Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY kept within tight parameters after softening yesterday with mild headwinds seen amid Fed independence concerns as President Trump was said to be considering attempting to fire Fed Governor Cook due to accusations of mortgage fraud. Nonetheless, the downside was cushioned owing to the hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes from the July meeting which noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.
- EUR/USD remained flat after recent indecision and with little fresh drivers from the bloc to spur price action.
- GBP/USD languished around the prior day’s trough after slipping back beneath the 1.3500 level as participants looked through the recent hotter-than-expected CPI report whereby a surge in airfares triggered the larger-than-expected services CPI print and ONS attributed some of this to the timing of school holidays, while ING noted this is a component the BoE is less concerned with in terms of overall inflationary pressure and that food inflation, which the Bank is more concerned with, hasn’t changed much.
- USD/JPY eked slight gains after rebounding off support near the 147.00 level but with the upside capped amid the downbeat mood and lack of tier-1 data in Japan.
- Antipodeans proceeded sideways around this week’s lows with little pertinent drivers to inspire a recovery from the recent RBNZ-triggered decline.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1287 vs exp. 7.1748 (Prev. 7.1384)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recent two-way price action owing to the hawkish FOMC Minutes and with President Trump calling for Fed governor Cook to resign over mortgage fraud allegations. However, Cook has stated she will not be bullied into resigning, while price action was not helped by a relatively average 20yr auction.
- Bund futures pared some of yesterday’s gains after ascending in tandem with US counterparts and following deflationary German PPI data.
- 10yr JGB futures faded most of its opening gains amid a lack of tier-1 data and after weaker demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures extended on gains after advancing yesterday with the upside facilitated by bullish crude inventory data.
- Spot gold marginally pulled back and took a breather following its recent climb to around the USD 3,350/oz level and was unfazed by the hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.
- Copper futures lacked conviction amid the mixed risk appetite and as participants await Jackson Hole.
- Chile’s Codelco estimates copper output for the El Teniente mine at 316k tonnes this year.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin marginally declined and tested support at the USD 114k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on a trilateral with Pakistan and Afghanistan that the three sides should expand development cooperation and expand trade and investment exchanges, while he added it is necessary to improve the security dialogue mechanism and deepen law enforcement and security cooperation. Furthermore, he said the three sides should further strengthen exchanges at all levels and consolidate strategic mutual trust.
- Leading municipalities in China are reportedly seeking to achieve at least 70% self-sufficiency in AI chips by 2027 and are looking to redraw a national supply chain dominated by Nvidia (NVDA), according to Nikkei.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug). 49.9 (Prev. 48.9)
- Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug). 52.7 (Prev. 53.6)
- Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug). 51.9 (Prev. 51.6)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug). 52.9 (Prev. 51.3)
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug). 55.1 (Prev. 54.1)
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug). 54.9 (Prev. 53.8)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered a reduction in timelines for taking control of Hamas strongholds and defeating the group, according to the PM’s office.
- Israeli military spokesman said after a clash with Hamas, that Israel entered the first stage of its planned attack on Gaza City and Israeli forces already have a hold on the outskirts of Gaza City.
- Israeli army targeted the beach camp in Gaza, according to an Al Arabiya correspondent.
- UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to avoid massive death and destruction in Gaza City, while he called for Israel to reverse its decision to expand the illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff warned against repeating mistakes of the 1994 Budapest memorandum on security guarantees and said Ukraine’s allies have started active work on the military aspect of security guarantees, while a contingency plan is being developed with partners in case Russia extends the war or violates agreements from leaders’ meetings.
- US VP Vance said on Fox News that Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. It was separately reported that a Pentagon top policy official told a small group of allies Tuesday night that the US plans to play a minimal role in any Ukraine security guarantees, according to POLITICO citing Defence Undersecretary for Policy Colby.
- Western official said a small group of military leaders were continuing discussions in Washington to work out options for security guarantees for Ukraine.
- Italian PM Meloni offered a plan to aid Ukraine in a day if Russia resumes war, according to Bloomberg.
OTHER
- North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the US mainland, according to a new report cited by the WSJ.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves is said to be mulling cutting the tax-free pension lump sum in a move that would be expected to raise more than GBP 2bln a year, according to Telegraph sources.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
CHINA
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY// POLAND
The Germans Are Invading Poland (This Time With Real Estate Investment Capital)
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Polish media outlets and some citizens are lamenting German real estate investors who are swooping into the Polish city of Wrocław and buying up 1,486 apartments, after an agreement was signed on Aug. 16 of this year. However, Wrocław is only one city, and across the country, these same German investors are buying up 5,300 parents in total, for which the Germans will pay €564 million.
In Wrocław, the major investment involves numerous buildings on Horbaczewskiego, Jaworska, Zakładowa, and Grabiszyńska Streets.
Not everyone is happy about the deal.
“Germans are buying nearly 1,500 apartments in Wrocław. They will take over entire apartment blocks, along with their residents. And this is just the beginning of Western companies entering our real estate market. European companies have many times greater capital, so they will easily outbid Polish companies. Either we introduce appropriate taxation for this type of business, or in a dozen or so years we’ll wake up with our hand in the pot. Once again,” wrote political activist Adam Czarnecki on X.
The case concerns buildings constructed by companies associated with the developer Echo Investment, which house apartments for rent under the Resi4Rent brand. On Aug. 16, a preliminary agreement was signed for the sale of all shares in 18 property management companies across the country.
The purchase was made by developer Vantage Development, which in turn is owned by the German investment fund TAG Beteiligungs und Immobilienverwaltungs GmbHz.
The Polish newspaper wPolityce.pl wrote the “Germans are rubbing their hands.”
In Germany itself, investors have bought up substantial amounts of property in major cities like Hamburg, Berlin and Munich, helping drive up prices for locals. The role of foreign capital flowing into Western countries remains a point of contention. In some nations like New Zealand, a ban on foreign real estate investors was enacted to help tame real estate prices and ensure locals have a chance to afford apartments and homes in their own country.
As for Poland, it is increasingly a popular destination for foreign capital. In Germany, top news papers have run headlines such as “Why the real estate market in Poland is one of the most attractive in the world.”
The deal in Wrocław still needs approval
The outlet for writes, “As for Wrocław itself, the TuWrocław.com website reports that the buildings in question are at Zakładowa 24 (302 apartments); Jaworska 6-8 (681 apartments); Horbaczewskiego 16 (301 apartments); and Grabiszyńska 91 (202 apartments).”
The transaction still needs to be approved by the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection, but could be finalized by mid-December 2025.
The acquisition of residential buildings by German-based Vantage Development and Robyg, which is owned by the same company, is not the only investment in Wrocław. The company is also invested in Port Popowice.
The issue of investors buying up property in major European cities is not only an issue involving Germans, however, Poles may be especially sensitive to German investors due to the historical conflicts between the two countries.
END
UK
YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING@!!
(watson/ModernityNews)
Watch: Man Arrested In UK For Saying “We Love Bacon”
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A British man has been arrested for saying “we love bacon” while protesting the building of a proposed giant mosque.
The Telegraph reports that the protest occurred at the site of planned super mosque in the Lake District, which is populated by an almost 100% white population.
The report further notes that the 23-year-old man, was not otherwise being disruptive, causing any damage or being in any way violent.
The arresting police officer claims that the grounds for the detainment were “racial abuse.”
Telegraph writer Isabel Oakeshott notes:
Of course Muslims don’t eat pork. As a result, they cannot share this particular delight with the rest of us. However, despite a steady rise in our own Muslim population, the UK remains a Christian country. Supposedly, we also enjoy free speech. Why then did the unfortunate father find himself frogmarched away from the protest by two police officers?
Saying ‘We love bacon’ is simply a truism. We British do love it, and there is nothing wrong with saying so.
As for remarks about bacon near a religious site or in the company of Muslims, they hardly constitute public disorder, still less ‘racial abuse,’ as the officer who arrested him can be heard suggesting.
The South Lakes Islamic Centre, often referred to as the Kendal mosque due to its proximity to the town of Kendal in Cumbria, is a £2.5 million facility under construction in Dalton-in-Furness on the edge of the Lake District.
Construction began in March 2025, with reports indicating that the structure is now nearing completion despite challenges like suppliers refusing to provide materials amid public backlash.
Opposition to the project has been vocal, with groups staging protests at the site since last month. Critics cite concerns over increased noise, traffic, and cultural impact in a rural area, but a core argument revolves around the region’s demographics: the Lake District and surrounding Cumbria have a Muslim population of approximately 0.4%, or around 2,000 people across the county, raising questions about the necessity of what some dub a “mega mosque” in such a sparsely populated Muslim area.
Detractors suggest it’s disproportionate, especially with nearby facilities like mosques in Carlisle, Penrith, and Whitehaven, and speculate it could signal plans for larger-scale housing or migration to the area.
As we’ve previously highlighted, the Lake District is just one sleepy area of the UK where the government has decided to drop hundreds of illegal immigrants into small villages without notifying or warning residents.
Many who shared the video of the man’s arrest on social media suggested it is yet another example of the ‘two tier’ society that has emerged in the UK.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israel Calls Up 60,000 Reservists Ahead Of Gaza City Takeover
Wednesday, Aug 20, 2025 – 09:20 PM
Israeli media is reporting that around 60,000 Israeli reservists are set to receive call-up orders on Wednesday as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) gear up for a major assault on Gaza City.
A report in Times of Israel notes that reservists will have up to two weeks before going to their duty stations, but not all will be directly involved in the Gaza City offensive, as some are needed replace Israeli forces currently stationed in other parts of Gaza.
The controversial Netanyahu-ordered expanded offensive which aims to achieve total control of Gaza City is expected to displace over a million Palestinian civilians.
The IDF is prepared to use artillery to forcibly remove them, and a ramped-up air campaign has already been underway. Arab media sources, including Al Jazeera, have said that areas with a lot of tent shelters for refugees have at times been directly struck.
Israel’s military has issued evacuation orders, and is framing this as simply a mass transfer, while the Palestinian side along with international human rights monitors have decried an ethnic cleansing and land grab in progress.
Reports in Israeli media have further described that after capturing the city, the IDF plans to spend over a year systematically demolishing it, which is precisely what previously happened in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia.
The ostensible justification is for removal of “Hamas infrastructure” – but critics have said it is ultimately to pave the way for Jewish settlement of the Gaza Strip.
The question remains, where will these Gazans go? Israel has been seeking to pressure some regional and even north African countries to take them in.
To be expected, these conversations have gone nowhere especially as regional Arab states have already historically absorbed hundreds of thousands. For example, the majority of the population of Jordan actually has Palestinian roots.
Just life Rafah…
The Trump administration has meanwhile appeared to greenlight the takeover plans, in a break from Europe – which has grown much more critical of Israeli policy and loud over the last months.
Some EU states like Denmark are even mulling sanctions on Israel, and several major US allies are set to recognize the state of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in September.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Gantz considers joining Netanyahu’s government to push through Gaza hostage deal, MK confirms
His decision would counter expected opposition from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich.
Leader of the National Unity Party MK Benny Gantz leads a faction meeting at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on May 26, 2025.(photo credit: NOAM REVKIN FENTON/FLASH90)
Blue and White chairman MK Benny Gantz may return to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to support a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, KAN News reported on Wednesday evening.
His decision would counter expected opposition from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich.
Blue and White MK Alon Schuster spoke to KAN Reshet Bet later on Wednesday. During his interview, Shuster corroborated the report, stating: “Currently, there are no talks about joining the government, but if we understand that this is what will lead to the release of hostages, then that’s what we will do. What do they expect? That we let the hostages die?”
end
Hamas breach exposes IDF’s pre-Oct. 7 mentality after 22 months of war
Hamas gunmen entered an IDF post near Khan Yunis from a tunnel 40 to 50 meters away, with cameras disabled and no lookouts on that side, wounding three soldiers before 15 attackers were killed.
An Israeli soldier stands next to military vehicles as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, Israel August 18, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAUGUST 21, 2025 10:59Updated: AUGUST 21, 2025 12:57
On Wednesday, Hamas fighters penetrated an IDF military defensive position around Khan Yunis.
Although in the end, only three IDF soldiers were wounded and 15 Hamas terrorists were killed, and the military regained control of the position relatively rapidly, the very fact of Hamas penetrating deep into the position 22 months after the IDF thought it had learned the lessons of being overconfident on defense on October 7, 2023, has shaken the defense establishment.
How did Hamas pull it off?
The first piece is the tunnel from which the Hamas forces surprised the IDF.
It was only 40-50 meters from the position, which the IDF said left them essentially no response time to block them from penetrating the position.
This answer raises several additional questions.
How could it be 22 months into the war and with so much of Gaza destroyed by the IDF that they missed a tunnel so close to the position?
Here, some modesty is required.
IDF targeting of Hamas’s tunnel system
While the first few months of the war and even the first year or so of the war saw IDF and political echelon declarations of having destroyed 80% of the tunnels in one area or another, over time it became clear that these statements were either disconnected from reality or skipped over an important nuance.
Nearly all of Hamas’ “strategic tunnels” (tunnels for moving large objects and supplies between different regions of Gaza, as well as for hiding communications, intelligence, and weapons development bases) were destroyed in 2024 (though one more large one was found in April of this year).
However, no one knows how many small “tactical tunnels” (simply for the movement of small numbers of Hamas forces within a localized area) there are or were, and only a few months ago, a guess was given that the IDF had possibly only destroyed 25% of these.
Next, the IDF only took over 75% of Gaza territory since the May-July period.
So, really, the war over 75% of small tunnels in 75% of Gaza only started in the last couple of months.
That means that if anything, the IDF should expect that Hamas has small tunnels near most of its new forward Gaza positions.
Incidentally, the IDF said that around two months before, there had been inspections of the area and portions of tunnels related to the attack tunnel used by Hamas had been dealt with, but apparently not completely, or the particular portion of the network of tunnels had not been dealt with.
Still, why didn’t soldiers standing at the top of the position and its trenches fire on the approaching Hamas invaders during the 40-50 meter run?
Maybe some of the Hamas invaders still would have gotten in, but maybe some would have been hit, and others may have been slowed down and easier to pin down just as they were penetrating.
No IDF shots fired until Hamas starts firing
Instead, not a single shot was fired until Hamas started firing on soldiers within the position after they had already penetrated unhindered.
It turns out that the IDF was using only electronic surveillance to cover the particular defensive area.
There were no lookouts posted over the particular approach.
Hamas may even have other tunnels near this position. Still, clearly, given that under the doctrine of taking over Gaza territory, soldiers are now supposed to remain in stationary positions much of the time, it had enough opportunities to carry out surveillance to see that this side of the position was sunwatched by human eyes.
According to the IDF, Hamas shot and destroyed the surveillance cameras, and whoever was watching these cameras did not react fast enough to alert the soldiers in the position.
This is already far more problematic than the tunnel problem, because it is true and continuous negligence in leaning too much on electronic surveillance and defenses.
Pre-October 7 thought process
Oh, and Hamas has only tried this kind of an attack once in Beit Hanun, so no reason to be on guard for it, right? Sound like pre-October 7 thinking?
The next big question is why the IDF in this position was not on extra alert given that military sources have confirmed that there were extra suspicious movements in the area around the position in the last three days?
Apparently, IDF sources say that they had responded to the suspicious movements by setting up ambushes, but not in the right place.
Translation: the IDF thought that it was invincible in its inner perimeter near the position and could not imagine Hamas trying to invade, so it set up ambushes farther out, thinking it would catch Hamas long before it got near the position. Invincible on the inner perimeter – sounds like October 7 thinking?
Other details have now also been revealed: how one tank killed several terrorists inside the base, including running over a Hamas fighter who was firing off rounds of RPG rockets.
Also, while multiple pieces of Hamas penetrated the position in different pots and invaded different structures inside without any resistance, as soon as Hamas started firing on IDF soldiers, there was not much delay in responding. IDF soldiers were returning fire within seconds or minutes, depending on where they were located within the position.
The most serious part of the fighting, starting at 9:00 a.m., was over within around 20 minutes, though it took around three hours to fully eliminate the 15 Hamas fighters, half of whom were spread out surrounding the position firing mortars.
What this incident shows is that anytime you put soldiers down in a stagnant position near or around enemy territory, they are vulnerable.
Anytime officers do not sit on the soldiers regularly to stay alert and rely on technology for basic defenses, they are vulnerable.
And if a war drags on for long enough, any lesson soldiers learned – no matter how grave – two years before, or even a month before, can be easily forgotten.
end
HEZBOLLAH
SYRIA
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
PEACE GOING NOWHERE!!
Russia Attacks US-Owned Factory In Ukraine, While Insisting It Has Veto Power Over Any ‘Security Guarantees’
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 01:30 PM
Now nearly a week out from last Friday’s historic Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, the White House has had to temper its positive predictions on the peace process, after prematurely touting that a Putin and Zelensky bilateral meeting was on the horizon. By Wednesday the Kremlin had made it clear this is not yet the case.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued some non-committal statements, watering down what appeared an already vague commitment. A future direct meeting with the Ukrainian leader – a president which Moscow previously dubbed illegitimate – would have to be prepared “gradually… starting with the expert level and thereafter going through all the required steps.”
A separate Russian official has stated that “it shouldn’t be a meeting for the sake of a meeting” – highlighting that despite Trump’s strong diplomatic efforts, Russia remains ‘open’ but doesn’t consider the warring sides to have bridged key major gaps on peace terms just yet.
On Thursday The Wall Street Journal underscored that there’s yet another key divide – the question of future security guarantees and how they will be monitored or implemented:
Russia warned on Wednesday that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations championed by President Trump.
…Lavrov’s insistence that Russia must have a say in how any security guarantees for Ukraine would be enacted contradicted the Trump administration’s assertion that Putin agreed to European and U.S. security guarantees at the Alaska summit on Friday.
Lavrov’s remarks were a potent sign that Moscow’s maximalist demands in the war haven’t shifted despite a surge in diplomatic engagement in recent days. Western security assurances to deter against future Russian invasions are key to getting Ukraine to sign on to a peace deal.
Russia has never wavered on insisting that NATO or Western forces never be allowed to patrol or have a presence in Ukraine. Moscow’s war justification from the beginning has been focused on the question of NATO expansion, and demanding permanent Ukrainian neutrality.
Strangely, while President Trump has this week assured Russia of ‘no US boots on the ground’ – the White House spokesperson at the same time suggested there could be some kind of pledged US or Western air support as part of future security guarantees. But the messaging has been contradictory as at the same time Trump has been pledging ‘minimal’ American involvement in any future security guarantees for Ukraine.
Moscow will likely present the targeted Mukachevo plant as military or ‘dual use’ in nature…
Geopolitical news source Moon of Alabama reacted as follows:
While Russia is confidently prosecuting the war in Ukraine towards its inevitable end. Meanwhile the ‘West’ is still negotiating with itself about the conditions under which it will have to capitulate.
Discussions continue about ‘security guarantees’ for Ukraine even as the only serious ones are those that Russia is willing to give. The confused arguments about ‘guarantees’ are reflected in the reports of them. Consider this nonsense:
“A security guarantee could encompass a wide range of issues. In return for Russia ending its invasion, a security pact could include a pledge of U.S. air support for any European-led operations should Russian troops resume their assault.”
If Russia ends the war NATO-like ‘security guarantees’ are to be given to Ukraine as a reward?
Indeed, it’s as if Trump and his top officials still don’t understand the core problems, or at least purposefully ignore what remain the root causes to this war.
Trump wants to see more rapid momentum and engagement come out of the Alaska summit, hoping for a Putin-Zelensky summit within days or weeks. But that’s very unlikely to happen, also given Zelensky – with the encouragement of the more hawkish European allies – has still not offered substantive compromise. He reportedly isn’t even willing to lift restrictions on the use of the Russian language in public discourse or media.
The US president is meanwhile venting his frustrations on Thursday…
This is in reference to fresh reports – noted in the above images – that a “massive Russian airstrike hit a US-owned electronics factory in Ukraine early Thursday while some 800 civilians were working there.”
“The Flex Ltd. plant in Mukachevo, a city hundreds of miles from the front line, was engulfed in flames after being hit by two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles around 4:30 a.m., according to Ukrainian officials,” NY Post details.
At this point, Trump is likely to grow more frustrated as more days inevitably pass and there are no further grand compromises to be made, except by the Ukrainian side and its Western backers – given Russian forces’ ascendancy in the war theatre.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Court Upholds Nearly $1 Million Fine Against Restaurant That Ignored Pandemic Indoor Dining Ban
Wednesday, Aug 20, 2025 – 08:30 PM
A Washington state restaurant that ignored a 2020 state COVID-19 pandemic order must pay a fine of $936,000 – $18,000 per day, for each day it remained in operation while the state’s emergency order banning indoor dining was in place, an appeals court has ruled.
The ban, imposed in late 2020 by Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), went into effect following a jump in cases and hospitalizations (unaudited!). In response, the owners of Stuffy’s II restaurant, Bud and Glenda Duling, ignored the order – resulting in the financial punishment.
The fine was levied by the Washington State Department of Labor and Industries – which the Dulings say they cannot pay. Meanwhile, the Board of Industrial Insurance Appeals did not have their back, refusing to weigh in after saying they don’t have the authority to deal with constitutional matters. A superior court judge upheld the decision.
Despite providing tax returns showing that it operated at a loss in 2020 and received a PPP loan, the court ruled that the Dulings have not provided evidence that their company cannot pay the fines.
“Duling has not demonstrated that it is unable to pay the fine or that the fine is excessive,” Judge Rebecca Glasgow wrote for the unanimous panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals of the State of Washington judges that considered the case. “There is nothing in the record about what savings or assets Duling had,” Glasow continued, adding “Duling had ample opportunities to provide additional documentation and deposition testimony to support its contention that it was unable to pay the fine, and it did not do so.”
In a Dec. 5, 2020 Facebook post, the Dulings said they had made the decision to resume indoor dining.
“It has come down to the point where we shut our doors after today and call it quits after 32 years of proudly serving the community, or we fight,” they wrote. “We have made the decision over closing that we are fighting. If we go down, at least our employees will be able to have a better chance at having a better holiday season! This is not just about us as the owners struggling; this is about our Stuffy’s family.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAULALEXANDER
Military Preparing Attacks on Mexican Cartels; Secret orders target cartels as the new terrorists; Trump takes control of the drug issue once and for all, this is the plan; “Military Preparing Attacks
on Mexican Cartels; Secret orders target cartels as the new terrorists; excellent report by Ken Klippenstein, support his work; great detailed reporting here on a complex delicate dangerous issue
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 21 |
President Donald Trump has secretly signed a directive to the Pentagon to begin using military force against select Latin American drug cartels that his administration has deemed terrorist organizations, according to an Intercept interview with a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak to the media. The authorization was first reported by the New York Times.’
Your view?
Can Congress Stop Trump From Starting a War in Mexico?
More than 30 human rights groups urge congressional leaders to block Trump’s attempt to target Mexican cartels.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
NORTHCOM commander Gen. Gregory M. Guillot (left) meets with a Mexican Military Foreign Liaison Officer on April 14, 2025
‘The Trump administration has directed the military to prepare for lethal strikes against cartel targets inside Mexico, three military sources tell us. The Top Secret planning order, issued in late Spring, directs Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to manage the attacks, which are to be ready by mid-September.
Though U.S.-Mexico military relations are broad and cooperative, any military action south of the border is considered extremely sensitive for both Washington and the Mexican federal government and is rarely discussed in public.
“Not only is Donald Trump uniquely focused on TCOs [transnational criminal organizations, the official name for cartels], having designated them terrorists in one of his first Executive Orders, but he has shown himself to be willing to take unilateral action despite potentially negative political ramifications,” says one senior intelligence official. He and the other sources say that military action could be unilateral — that is, without the involvement or approval of the Mexican government.
The unprecedented order was discussed at a July meeting at NORTHCOM headquarters in Colorado Springs that was led by Colby Jenkins, the unconfirmed Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. Within days, Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, commander of NORTHCOM, hosted the two highest ranking Mexican military officials: Gen. Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, Secretary of National Defense, and Adm. Raymundo Pedro Morales Ángeles, Secretary of the Navy.
“Today, more than ever, the challenges we face demand a joint, coordinated, and adapted response,” Morales said after the Colorado visit, trying to impress upon Pentagon and military leaders that any potential operation be conducted by the two nations together.
To address the extreme political sensitivities and to honor Mexico’s sovereignty, operations inside Mexico have previously been conducted by the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), the clandestine arm of the U.S. military that has been involved in targeted killings in the Middle East. The New York Times has reported that the CIA has increased reconnaissance operations over Mexico with its own drones, another indicator of increased preparations for operations.
“NORTHCOM was previously sidelined in any Mexico planning, the conventional special operations components mostly involved in joint training with their Mexican counterparts and non-lethal missions such as at-sea interdictions of shipments, but now it is being tasked to be the hemispheric synchronizer, of a far larger magnitude” says the senior intelligence official. One reason is that prospective attacks also have to coordinate with the intelligence community at large, the FBI, and various homeland security agencies (such as Border Patrol and ICE) who all now are focused on Mexico (and are conducting their own operations inside Mexico).
NORTHCOM is already involved in Mexico in a host of ways, including in combating the cartels. Gen. Guillot alluded to this in recent testimony to Congress, where he said that his cooperation with Mexico is already closer than at any point in history.
“It is already apparent the military-to-military relationship between the United States and Mexico is robust and expanding as both nations address the challenges posed by common threats to our citizens and shared interests. The bonds between USNORTHCOM and our Mexican military partners are broad, resilient, and focused on expanding our combined capability to defend and secure North America from myriad state and non-state threats. Countering competitor influence in the region remains a key priority for USNORTHCOM and our Mexican military partners, and as a direct result, the U.S. and Mexican militaries are more operationally compatible than at any point in our shared history.”
That’s the overt side: countering Chinese influence and investments in Mexico, thwarting Russian influence (and operations); and stemming the flow of drugs, precursor chemicals and even weapons of mass destruction components through Mexico.
Now, NORTHCOM has tasked its subordinate Special Operations Command (called SOCNORTH) to undertake “operational preparation of the battlespace” inside Mexico to set the stage for future military operations, and to prepare cartel-related “target packages” for potential strikes and “direct action” attacks on the ground against high-value individuals, compounds, and supply chain targets associated in particular with the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Direct attacks could also involve air and drone strikes.
“Direct action” is a term special operations forces use to describe small-scale offensive operations carried out by Army Green Berets, Navy SEALs, or Marine Corps raiders. Think of the airstrikes on Iran this summer as a kind of direct action, against a discrete target with a “strategic” or national purpose.
There is one major difference when it comes to Mexico: the political sensitivities involved. Unlike Iran, Mexico is a rich country which, of course, borders the U.S. and cooperates with it in countless ways. Independence from America is a major issue domestically, not to mention the large Mexican-American population.
In congressional testimony by Gen. Guillot, he has also addressed increased NORTHCOM intelligence collection.
GUILLOT: Recently we’ve been permitted to increase our ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance], our intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance to —
SEN. ROGER WICKER: Permitted by Mexico?
GUILLOT: No, by the department, sir. But we do have intelligence sharing with Mexico to show them what we see. And we have increased cooperation with Mexico to go address the cartel violence in terms of sending more troops.
It is by no means clear that Mexico City would ever approve any type of U.S. military action inside the country. In 2023, former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took the controversial step to ask the Mexican legislature to approve increased operations (which was described as “training”) by the Army 7th Special Forces Group. Those operations commenced in February, when a small group arrived in Mexico to train their counterparts.
Jenkins, the Acting Assistant Secretary told Congress after the brief deployment that “SOCNORTH’s training of our capable Mexican SOF [Special Operations Forces] partners are critical to … denying cartels or other criminal organizations their desired end states.”
When Trump declared the cartels’ trafficking of drugs and people into America an “invasion,” he wasn’t joking. Far from a rhetorical flourish, it’s by now clear that the language he’s using has created the basis for the military to prepare to respond to cartels in a similar way that it did with terrorists after 9/11.
“We have to start treating them as armed terrorist organizations, not simply drug dealing organizations,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said of the cartels in a recent interview.
Trump, military sources also tell me, is focused on results, willing to ignore law, rules, and even policy recommendations in his zeal to have “progress” towards his goals with regard to national security. For the White House, the fentanyl crisis in America is one of the key measures of the success of the new war on the cartels.
Fentanyl’s death toll represents a crisis, having claimed the lives of over 225,000 Americans.
In a tense exchange, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Sen. Roger Wicker pressed Gen. Guillot on what progress his command was making on fentanyl, stressing its death toll. Guillot replies, “I wouldn’t say it’s better.”
WICKER: So, because time is limited, we had 225,000 in a three year space. Are we making any progress? Now it’s 2025. Has it gotten better?
GUILLOT: No, I, I wouldn’t say it’s better, but I do think, Chairman, that we have a better foundation now that we’ve increased the intelligence to, to make a rapid progress against this threat.
WICKER: It definitely needs to get better. And so tell us what you need and, uh, thank you for your efforts. You got eight seconds.
GUILLOT: More, uh, more ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] is the first. And then, uh, expanded authorities would be required to, uh, um, more advise and assist types of operations between our forces and the tier one Mexican forces.
(“Tier one” being another term for the clandestine special operations forces, Guillot is here referring to Mexico’s equivalent to Delta Force and SEAL Team 6 under the JSOC, called Fuerza Especial de Reacción.)
The intelligence community’s annual threat assessment released in March put an unprecedented emphasis on cartels, casting them as “the most immediate and direct threat to America’s security.”
“Western Hemisphere-based TCOs [transnational criminal organizations] and terrorists involved in illicit drug production and trafficking bound for the United States endanger the health and safety of millions of Americans and contribute to regional instability,” the assessment reads. The document specifically mentions several cartels based in Mexico, including Sinaloa and New Generation Jalisco.
Gen. Guillot is even more explicit, saying in February that Mexican cartels “threaten U.S. sovereignty.”
“Transnational criminal organizations based in Mexico continue to threaten US sovereignty and territorial integrity through the production and trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and the facilitation of unlawful mass migration towards the US southern border.”
Asked in January if he would deploy special forces into Mexico to take out cartels, President Trump replied, “Could happen.” Now, with the order to prepare target packages inside Mexico, a far more likely and ominous possibility looms. Not an invasion, not the “deployment” of U.S. special operators, not boots on the ground, but the kinds of strikes that the U.S. military has become expert at in the Middle East and South Asia.’
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
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EVOL NEWS
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
The Last Global Neoliberal Institutional Pillar Could Soon Crumble
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 02:40 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
We’re All In A Hole Alright
The Fed minutes overnight showed the FOMC largely united behind rates on hold in July as they “assessed that the effects of higher tariffs had become more apparent in the prices of some goods but that their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remained to be seen.” Indeed, the key point was that they “judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs.”
Does anybody anywhere know how the current confluence of inflationary and deflationary forces will play out? In the UK, for example, where the BoE are already cutting rates, headline inflation is 3.8% y-o-y, nearly double target. There are real signs of economic weakness, but also real inflation in pocket and lingering on in services.
One would hope the top central bankers about to assemble at Jackson Hole are laser-focused on this. The Financial Times editorial today argues their collective focus should be on staying independent, getting better economic data, and understanding how government spending drives inflation better. There are problems with each – and more to boot.
Bloomberg says Jackson Hole will rally around under-fire Fed Chair Powell, which seems logical. Yet Powell is still likely to see his replacement named within weeks, it appears; moreover, David Zervos — one of the potential candidates to succeed him — just said it’s inaccurate to describe the Fed as independent, and claimed Powell is aligned with the political left. And will Jackson Hole also rally round Fed Governor Cook, who just had a criminal referral letter for mortgage fraud sent to the DOJ by the head of the FHFA? Trump has called on her to resign: she says she won’t be bullied. We have of course seen similar Fed governor turnover in recent years.
While each central bank is different in terms of its constitutional set-up, how many of them are truly safe in their (very recent in historical terms) independence when push comes to shove? Who appoints whom? That’s a one-way street. As tellingly, what can central banks do to ensure their independence if it’s threatened? ”Raise rates?”(!) Yes, some central banks have done so in the past to hurt governments they didn’t like: no, they won’t do that now. But it might delay rate cuts, perhaps. Or might they not buy their own government’s bonds in a market panic ensuing from fears over their loss of independence? There’s a discussion point with strong views either side, depending on which country we are talking about.
In short, on one level we are talking personalities here; on another we are talking underlying political-economy ideologies; and on another we are talking realpolitik and power structures.
Meanwhile, what’s true for central banking is even more starkly evident in the world they are now operating in.
Stunning Europe, but not a surprise to those who think in the terms described above, Russia now says it must be included in any Ukraine security guarantees – along with China. Russia also says no talks with Zelenskyy are on the horizon.
The unwillingness to talk to Ukraine is no surprise for Europe; but the Russian insistence that it gets to determine what Ukraine’s security guarantees look like — and that it wants China involved, perhaps even meaning the PLA operating on the ground(?) — is a geopolitical and diplomatic shock of the highest order for Brussels.
(And that comes on top of reports that European Commission President von der Leyen was reportedly asked to leave the room at times during Monday’s White House discussions on Ukraine because she wasn’t “a leader” nor “an elected head of state.”)
As Politico puts it bluntly, ‘Russia wants… Russia to have veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine’ while ‘Europe has no real solutions for security guarantees on Ukraine’. The stakes here are sky high and so are the market’s fat tail risks.
Is Putin risking the massive increase in US and EU primary and secondary sanctions that could disrupt global trade and markets? Or will the US accept his terms, seeing Ukraine and Europe humbled even further? On one hand, that’s a ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ markets environment alongside the total defenestration of European strategic autonomy, with real long-run implications for its economy. On the other, it’s a likely rapid surge in energy prices and a massive supply chain shock as long-threatened global bifurcation accelerates rapidly.
On which note, Indian state firms reportedly secured several shipments of Russian crude recently, ignoring US warnings of higher tariffs, while Russia says it plans to start sending LNG to India, an area the US had been targeting. Moscow also called for “greater Eurasian partnership” between itself, China (which is rejecting Nvidia H20 after recent “insulting” comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and which may launch CNY stablecoins ahead), and India. That all raises the stakes from the current stand-off over Ukraine even higher. And that’s as a serious US Navy flotilla heads for oil-rich Venezuela, run by “narco-terrorist” President Maduro, who has a $50m US reward on his head: hello, Monroe Doctrine.
(Moreover, purely for the ECB to consider, ‘US drug pricing shake-up threatens access to medicines in Europe’ (Politico). Does that sound inflationary or deflationary?)
So, are the Jackson Hole central bankers worried about their futures; a lack of accurate data; and their own poor understanding of how governments drive inflation as defence spending is about to return to Cold War levels also following these developments? They are supposed to be ‘forward looking’, right? What’s their base-case scenario then? Does their modelling capture these risks? Will they make that clear, or are we supposed to imply it from what they share? Of course, I’m being facetious.
The reality is central banks will just wait and see what happens to energy prices and supply chains, then react. That puts their much-vaunted ‘independence’ into perspective: it’s more of a reaction function outside of the kind of ‘Econ 101’ world we no longer live in. Regrettably, few in the private sector have that luxury, and many must position/hedge such risks in advance.
If we were to see change at the Fed that drives a wedge between it and other central banks — with the PBOC already far from independent in the Western sense — the last global neoliberal institutional pillar could crumble, as I warned in Thin Ice in 2016. If it goes, so could a lot else.
Already, what’s good for one central bank isn’t necessarily good for another. The RBNZ governor just told the Kiwi parliament (where the government has tweaked the Reserve Bank’s remit in the recent past: there is political plasticity even in the home of inflation-targeting) that higher commodity prices and lower rates are the ingredient for an economic recovery in H2. Not elsewhere though, surely? They mostly don’t want the higher commodity prices part.
There’s certainly a lot for the world’s top central bankers to consider over the next few days, and vastly more than the FT would have it – because we’re all in a hole alright.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1655 UP 0.0004 PTS OR 4 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.59 DOWN 0.290 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3466 UP .0005 OR 5 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3878 UP 0.0004 (09CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 4.89PTS OR 0.13%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 61.32PTS OR 0.24%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.16%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 61.33 PTS OR 0.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.89 PTS OR 0.13%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.16 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 278.38 PTS OR 0.65%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3339.20
silver:$37.79
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.13 UP 5 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.178% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.607% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS AND 40/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.341 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.606 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.751 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1623 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 147,91 UP 0.606 OR YEN IS DOWN 61 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.684 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0027 OR 27 BASIS pts to 1.3900
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1790 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1837
TURKISH LIRA: 40.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.606
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.3433% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.912 UP 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.758 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3337.20
SILVER AT 11;00: 37.96
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 21.46 PTS OR 0.23%
GERMAN DAX: up 16.37 pts or 0.07%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 34.74 pts or 0.47%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 11.70 pts or 0.08%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 148.43 or 0.35%
WTI Oil price 62.58 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.73 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.73 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 24/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.452 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.967 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1609 DOWN 0.0041 OR 41 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3418 DOWN .0050 OR 50 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7290 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.604 DOWN 1.2 FULL BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.36 UP 1.054 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3899 UP 0.0025 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.38
Brent OIL: 67.52
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.333
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 PTS to 4.924%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 3.92%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.482 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.973 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.52 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.94 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.58 DOWN 0 AND 8/100 roubles //
GOLD $3340.90 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 38.12 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 152.81 OR .034%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 106.99 PTS OR 0.46%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.74 UP 1.06 OR 4.69%
GLD: $ 307.29 DOWN 1.07 PTS OR 0.35%
SLV/ $34.62 UP 0.18 PTS OR OR 0.52%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 156.82 PTS OR 0.56%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING\
Stocks In Longest Selloff Since January As Tech Continues To Dump, But Small Caps Jump
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 08:09 PM
The selling continued for a fifth day: despite a modest attempt at an early bounce, the unexpectedly strong housing and PMI data, which saw US manufacturing surge to the highest level since 2022…
… sent odds of a September rate cut lower, from 80% before the economic data to as low as 65% before rebounding to the low 70% ahead of tomorrow’s 10sm ET Powell speech at Jackson Hole …
… which weighed on risk prices, and kept the S&P in the red for the 5th day in a row – it’s longest stretch since the start of the year, when we saw a similar selloff at the end of 2024 and culminating on Jan 2.
Once again, the selling was focused on mega cap tech names (see the Goldman TMT Mega cap basket), which are also down for 5 days in a row…
… even as the rest of the market has been surprisingly resilient. Indeed, as shown in the next chart, while the market-cap weighted S&P index (which is of course the default version) has been dropping, the equal-cap weighted one has been flat. Of course, that’s only because the equal-weighted version has vastly underperformed on the way up as it gets less benefit from AI tech giants. It is only logical that it would be less penalized on the way down.
However, while yesterday a majority of stocks closed green, there is no such distribution today, and virtually every sector (except Energy which has become the natural pair trade hedge to every “stonk” in the world and rises when momentum sinks), is in the red.
The only names that eaked out modest gains today were small caps: the Russell outperformed both the S&P and the Nasdaq.
Meanwhile, it appears that Goldman’s reco to buy momentum (read tech) was accurate, because after its sharp rebound yesterday, the index is up again today, rising more than 1%, after yesterday closing just above the 200DMA which has served as critical resistance ever since Liberation day.
Other names that have recently found support are MSFT and META which Goldman earlier pointed out, have bounced off their 50 DMA.
Another index that was saved by the 50DMA was the Goldman basket of most short names: here too, the recent selloff was halted at the 50 day moving average after the tremendous post-Lib day ascent.
One place where demand remains solid despite today’s modest dip, is the Goldman index of retail favorites: here the price remains well above the 50DMA, and a whopping 57% higher than the April lows!
Elsewhere, treasury yields drifted higher all day, with the 10Y closing about 4 bps higher at 4.325%, amid modest curve flattening.
The selloff in rates also helped push the Bloomberg dollar index, which in turn send the USDJPY to the highest in 10 days, hardly the action one would expect ahead of a dovish announcement by Jerome Powell.
This hawkish read did not help bitcoin or ether both of which have been selling steadily for the past 12 hours.
Finally gold continues to do… absolutely nothing, as it remains stuck in a narrow $150 range between $3300 and $3450 for the past 4 months.
And after what was a relatively boring day we brace for what may be tomorrow’s big Jackson Hole fireworks to close out the summer.
DATA RELEASES
US Manufacturing Activity “Unexpectedly” Soars To Highest Since 2022
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 10:13 AM
One month after unexpectedly sliding into contraction for the first time in 2025, moments ago the S&P Manufaturing PMI even more unexpectedly soared from 49.8 to 53.3, not only smashing expectations of another decline to 49.7 and printing well above the highest economist forecast and in fact printing 7-sigma above the median estimate…
… but was the highest print since May 2022! According to S&P’s PMI report, the surge signaled “a renewed improvement of factory business conditions after a brief deterioration in July.”
At the same time the S&P Services PMI declined from last month’s red hot 55.7 to 55.4, but still beat estimates of 54.2. As a result, the composite PMI of US business activity grew at the fastest rate recorded so far this year in August, rising to 55.4 from 55.1, matching the previous post-covid high from Dec 2024 and adding to signs of a strong third quarter. Output has now grown continually for 31 months, with the latest two months seeing the strongest back-to-back expansions since the spring of 2022.
According to the report, growth was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Hiring also picked up. Most notably, job creation reached one of the highest rates seen over the past three years as companies reported the largest build-up in uncompleted work since May 2022.
Some more details:
- Production rose for a third successive month, rising at a pace not recorded since May 2022, buoyed by the largest influx of new orders since February 2024.
- Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022. Inventories of inputs also rose sharply after a drop in July.
- That left only the suppliers delivery times index acting as a drag on the PMI (reflecting faster deliveries), but to a lesser degree than in July.
- Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.
- While many manufacturers reported improved sales and demand, the upturn in production and order inflows was in part linked to renewed inventory building. Stocks of finished goods rose to an extent not previously recorded since data were first available in 2007, while stocks of purchased inputs showed the second-largest rise seen for over three years.
- While stock building was partly fueled by expectations of rising demand, some factories also reported increased safety-stock building amid fears of supply shortages or to protect against further price rises, in turn reflecting the recent impact of import tariffs.
There was more good news when it comes to jobs: employment rose for a sixth successive month, with the pace of job creation hitting the highest since January (and one of the strongest rates seen for over three years). Service providers took on staff at the fastest pace for seven months while factory job gains reached the highest since March 2022. Companies largely took on additional staff in response to rising backlogs of work. Uncompleted orders rose for a fifth consecutive month, rising in August at a pace unsurpassed since May 2022 reflecting stronger demand and near-term capacity constraints at some companies.
There were some concerns on the price side, with tariffs reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies across both manufacturing and service sectors collectively reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. Rates of increase accelerated in both sectors. While the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 as firms passed higher costs on to customers. Although goods price inflation cooled slightly for a second month in a row, it remained among the highest seen over the past three years. Service sector price inflation meanwhile was the sharpest since August 2022.
Business confidence in the outlook also improved but remained much weaker than seen at the start of the year as companies reported ongoing concerns over the impact of government policies, especially in relation to tariffs. Tariffs were again widely cited as the principal cause of sharply higher costs, which in turn fed through to the steepest rise in average selling prices recorded over the past three years.
Commenting on the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said that the “strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US businesses have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far. The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year.”
“Companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic-related capacity constraints recorded in early 2022. Stock building of finished goods has also risen at a survey record pace, linked in part to worries over future supply conditions.”
“While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three years.”
As a result, the economist concludes that the “rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”
In other words, the report coming unexpectedly strong, may be just an attempt by the traditionally anti-Trumpian S&P to pressure the Fed into maintaining a hawkish bias even as the labor market – at least as measured by most other 3rd parties – continues to deteriorate.
end
Initial Claims Unexpectedly Jump As Continuing Claims Surge To Four-Year Highs On Deep Tri-State Misery
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 08:51 AM
One week after initial claims printed at the same level (224k) where they were at in Nov 2021 (with non-seasonally adjusted claims hovering near record lows), moments ago the BLS reported that claims jumped in the last week, rising by 11k to 235K, the highest since June 20. Curiously the jump in seasonally adjusted claims took place even as unadjusted claims dipped to 2025 lows.
A breakdown of initial claims by state does not show any dramatic outliers: Kentucky saw the biggest increase in initial claims, up almost 2K, while claims in California dropped by 1,948.
Meanwhile, the relentless rise in continuing jobless claims continues, and in the latest week rose to 1.972 million, up from 1942 million, and above the 1.960 million expected; it was also the highest print since the covid crash.
The silver lining (if that’s what one would call it) is the continuing jobless claims across the Deep TriState keep rising…
Must may be gone, but DOGE is still taking deep state coup-plotter scalps.
end
Trump wins the big NY case: 454 billion dollars fraud case thrown out
(zerohedge)
Appeals Court Tosses Trump’s $454 Million Civil Fraud Judgement As Prez Claims ‘Total Victory’
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 12:10 PM
A New York appeals court has tossed out a $454 million civil fraud judgement handed down last year against Donald Trump, his family, and his company.
While the Appellate Division’s First Department upheld the ruling, it found that the $454 million penalty was excessive and at odds with the Eighth Amendment.
“The documentary evidence supports Supreme Court’s conclusion that the Attorney General made a prima facie showing that each defendant participated in the fraudulent scheme,” reads the opinion. “The trial record is also replete with evidence supporting the court’s determination that the individual defendants had the requisite intent to defraud, a necessary element of each Penal Law claim.”
The decision comes after New York Attorney General Letitia James’s office asked an appeals court last August to uphold the $454 million civil fraud judgment against Trump.
The appellate judges, however, said of the judgement; “while harm certainly occurred, it was not the cataclysmic harm that can justify a nearly half billion-dollar award to the State.”
In response to the decision, President Trump claimed ‘TOTAL VICTORY in the FAKE New York State Attorney General Letitia James Case!”
“The amount, including Interest and Penalties, was over $550 Million Dollars. It was a Political Witch Hunt, in a business sense, the likes of which no one has ever seen before. This was a Case of Election Interference by the City and State trying to show, illegally, that I did things that were wrong when, in fact, everything I did was absolutely CORRECT and, even, PERFECT,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The case can now be appealed by either side to the state’s highest court, the New York Court of Appeals.
“Today’s ruling by the New York appeals court is a resounding victory for President Trump and his company,” Trump’s former personal attorney, Alina Habba, said in response. “The court struck down the outrageous and unlawful $464 million penalty, confirming what we have said from the beginning: the Attorney General’s case was politically motivated, legally baseless, and grossly excessive.”
Following a three-month civil trial last year, Judge Arthur Engoron found Trump liable for inflating his net worth to secure better business deals, writing in his decision that Trump and his co-defendants engaged in frauds that “leap off the page and shock the conscience,” adding “Their complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological. They are accused only of inflating asset values to make more money. The documents prove this over and over again.”
Trump has long claimed that the case was politically motivated, saying “I’ve been persecuted by someone running for office,” referring to NY Attorney General Letitia James, who brought the case – and is currently under investigation for her own real estate fraud.
In his February decision, Engoron temporarily barred Trump and his family from leading New York-based companies, along with the $454 million fine. With interest, the penalty was closer to half-a-billion dollars.
Trump denied all wrongdoing – arguing that the alleged victims in the case were sophisticated banks who were happy to go into business with the Trump Organization, and profited from the deals. Meanwhile, Trump’s lawyers argued that James violated the statue of limitations, misapplied the relevant law, and encouraged the excessive penalty.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Is there anything the Biden administration did what was right?
Biden-Era USPS Fleet Contract For EVs Has Failed To Deliver, Time To Pull The Plug?
Wednesday, Aug 20, 2025 – 05:40 PM
A $10 billion contract awarded by the Biden administration for the production of 35,000 electric vehicles (EVs) to replace the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS) aging fleet has produced only 250 new vehicles in more than 2 years.
Despite receiving billion of dollars in contracts and government subsidies and building a new plant, Oshkosh Defense has failed to deliver the 3,000 battery electric vehicles it promised to have produced by late 2024.
The failure is prompting calls for the Trump administration to cancel the Biden-era contract and to instead award the money to Morgan Olson, a veteran-owned manufacturer which promises to make a gas-powered, right-hand-drive delivery truck, faster and more affordably than the Oshkosh program can.
The Federal Newswire reports that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) has described the USPS EV contract with Oshkosh as among the most wasteful federal projects in a report titled “Off The Rails: The Billion Dollar Boondoggles Taking Taxpayers for a Ride.”
When a $2.98 billion contract was first awarded in 2022, Oshkosh had no working prototype or delivery vehicle experience, despite promising to produce 50,000 Next Generation Delivery Vehicles (NGDVs).
Ernst’s report states:
“When the first vehicles were finally delivered, significant fixes were required before they were usable. Despite the delays, USPS agreed to pay higher prices for the vehicles,” the report adds,
“A person involved with the production admits, ‘This is the bottom line: We don’t know how to make a damn truck.’ That’s an important detail that should have been discovered before paying the company billions to do just that!”
Meanwhile, Morgan Olson was able to develop its Kestrel delivery vehicle without federal subsidies and stands ready to start production at its 1-million-square-foot Danville, Virginia facility.
The proposal from Morgan Olson promises to deliver 100,000 vehicles by 2029 at a projected cost of $5.5 billion, utilizing $26 million in startup support to come in well below the estimated cost of the EV initiative.
The rollout of the Kestrel coincides with President Trump’s Executive Order 14154, which changed fleet electrification rules to address cost and practicality by targeting “burdensome and ideologically motivated regulations.”
According to the Federal Newswire, the USPS has begun field testing 5 Kestrel units and is considering a formal launch event for early 2026.
end
amazing!! BBB decides it best not to open in California as it is too risky and overregulated
(zerohedge)
“Too Expensive And Risky”: Bed Bath & Beyond Explains Why It Won’t Operate Stores In “Overregulated” California
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
The chairman of the resurrected home goods chain Bed Bath & Beyond announced on Aug. 20 that the company would not open or operate retail stores in California, calling it overregulated, expensive, and risky.
“This decision isn’t about politics—it’s about reality,” company head Marcus Lemonis said in a social media post.
“California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America. It’s a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, and harder to deliver value to customers.”
Lemonis—the executive chairman of Beyond, Inc., which owns Bed Bath & Beyond—claimed that the state’s regulations result in higher taxes, fees, and wages that many businesses can’t sustain. The regulations strangle growth, he said.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office did not express concern about the retailer’s announcement in a response following the company’s announcement.
“After their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed, Bath & Beyond no longer existed,” Newsom’s spokesperson, Tara Gallegos, told The Epoch Times in an email.
“We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a 2nd [sic] store.”
Bed Bath & Beyond, founded in 1971, expanded to become a U.S. retail icon of home goods, experiencing significant growth.
In 2023, the company filed for bankruptcy, closing hundreds of stores after years of dismal sales and several attempts to turn the struggling business around. The company was purchased by online retailer Overstock.com and transitioned to an online-only presence.
Bed Bath & Beyond closed all 41 of its California stores, along with all other U.S. locations, in July 2023.
The retailer’s parent company, The Brand House Collective, announced a grand opening of its first Bed Bath & Beyond Home store in Nashville set for Aug. 8. The company’s shareholders approved the move in July.
“We’re proud to reintroduce one of retail’s most iconic names with the launch of Bed Bath & Beyond Home, beautifully reimagined for how families gather at home today,” Amy Sullivan, CEO of The Brand House Collective, said in a statement on July 28.
“This isn’t just a store, it’s a fresh start for a brand that means something special to so many families.”
The store also brought back its popular Beth Bath & Beyond coupons as it celebrated the grand opening.
Bed Bath & Beyond is investing in an alternative California strategy, according to Lemonis.
The company will offer 24 hour to 48 hour delivery to customers, and in many cases will deliver on the same day of purchase.
A Bed Bath & Beyond store in Los Angeles on April 10, 2013. The company closed its 41 California outlets in 2023. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Californians can continue to get products directly through the company’s website “on our terms, and with their best interest at heart,” but without the extra costs imposed by California’s taxes and regulations, according to Lemonis.
“We’re taking a stand because it’s time for common sense,” he said.
“Businesses deserve the chance to succeed. Employees deserve jobs that last. And customers deserve fair prices. California’s system delivers the opposite.”
ENDS
TEXAS
democrats not happy texas redistricting: a game that they invented
(zerohedge)
Texas House Approves Redistricting Plan As California Advances Counter-Move
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 10:30 AM
With Democrats having ended their melodramatic two-week walkout intended to thwart a Republican congressional redistricting plan, the Texas House of Representatives swiftly approved the controversial new district boundaries on Wednesday evening. Enactment of the gerrymandering plan is now seemingly inevitable — but California is moving toward a remapping of its own that promises to offset the Texas gains seat-for-seat.
The Texas redistricting map sailed through by an 88-to-52 margin, right along party lines. With the Texas Senate having already approved a similar map on Sunday, a final version should be ready for Gov. Greg Abbott’s signature by week’s end. (For a detailed map of the new boundaries, zoomable down to street level, click here.)
The new map is expected to hand Republicans a net gain of five seats in the Texas US House delegation that will be elected in next year’s midterms. Texas Republicans currently control 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats; the new map would likely give them 30 (a 79% share), all of which Mr. Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. The GOP holds a narrow 219-212 majority in the U.S. House, with four vacancies, and party leaders see Texas as central to preserving their legislative agenda.
On Truth Social, President Trump hailed the map’s adoption by the Texas House, and spoke optimistically about the potential for similar moves in other red states. By combining gerrymandering with his push to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines, Trump said “we will pick up 100 more seats, and the CROOKED game of politics is over.”
Democrats across the country have been howling about the Texas plan — assailing it as the latest threat to Our Democracy®. Meanwhile, conservatives scoffed at Texas state legislators’ choice of Illinois as their state to run to during their walkout, because Illinois arguably has the worst gerrymandering in America. In 2024, Democrats won 53% of the popular vote in Illinois House races, but took 82% of the seats (14 out of 17).
On Tuesday, former President Obama endorsed California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s pursuit of a ballot measure to redraw the state’s own districts, with a goal of moving five more districts into the Democrat column — thereby negating the Texas redistricting. Of the Golden State’s 52 US House seats, Democrats own 43 today. The new goal for the 2026 elections: 48 of 52 (92.3%). While California normally uses an independent redistricting commission, Newsom’s plan centers on putting a new map in front of voters in a special election on November 4. California lawmakers debated the legislation over several house on Tuesday and a vote is expected soon.
According to Politico and AP, here’s what Obama told fellow leftists at a fundraiser in Martha’s Vineyard:
“I believe that Governor Newsom’s approach is a responsible approach. I think that approach is a smart, measured approach, designed to address a very particular problem in a very particular moment in time.
[If Democrats] don’t respond effectively, then this White House and Republican-controlled state governments all across the country, they will not stop, because they do not appear to believe in this idea of an inclusive, expansive democracy…We cannot unilaterally allow one of the two major parties to rig the game. And California is one of the states that has the capacity to offset a large state like Texas.”
Obama characterized Newsom’s approach as restrained, given it doesn’t seek to “completely maximize” Democrats’ share of the California delegation, instead shooting for a mere 92.3%. (Gee, that sounds reasonable.) A Democratic pollster this week said 57% of California voters support the redistricting proposal; 35% oppose it and 8% are undecided.
While California and Texas are the top heavyweights, watch for action in other states too. Ohio is going through a redraw mandated by state law, while GOP leaders in Florida, Missouri and Indiana are talking about their own moves to boost Republican power on Capitol Hill. Democrats’ ability to keep countering GOP redistricting is limited by the fact that they’ve already gerrymandered the %$#@ out of their blue states.
The Texas redistricting drive, which came at the urging of President Trump, was particularly controversial because most redistricting efforts happen following the end of a decade, informed by the latest decennial census. Mid-decade changes have happened elsewhere, however — Colorado chose to redraw its maps after the 2002 elections, for example. As with the latest Texas re-draw, Colorado was not compelled to do so by a court order springing from legal challenges to existing maps.
The adoption of the new Texas map is particularly bad news for Houston Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett: It moves her residence out of her 30th Congressional District. She said Republicans went so far as to axe her ask her to confirm her current address before they drew the new boundaries. Bad news for Crockett is good news for America:
END
Only 17% Of 25-34-Year-Old Americans Have Attained The 5 Major Milestones Of Adulthood
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 03:30 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,m
What I am about to share with you is some of the clearest evidence yet that the middle class in America is being systematically destroyed. Young adults are forming middle class households at an extremely depressed rate, and that is because the American Dream is simply out of reach for most of them in this very harsh economic environment. If you can’t get a good job that pays an adequate wage, you aren’t going to be able to live a middle class lifestyle. Sadly, many older Americans simply do not understand how difficult things have become for our young adults in this day and age.
The Census Bureau has produced a paper entitled “Changes in Milestones of Adulthood” that absolutely blew me away.
According to the Census Bureau, the 5 major milestones of adulthood are living away from your parents, completing your education, getting a job, marrying, and living with a child. Since 1975, the success that our young people have had in attaining these milestones has declined dramatically…
According to the working paper, “Changes in Milestones of Adulthood,” almost half of all young adults in 1975 had reached four milestones associated with adulthood: moving out of one’s parents’ home, getting a job, getting married and having a child.
Five decades on, that progression has changed dramatically. The share of young adults that have followed the traditional pathway to adulthood has dropped to less than a quarter, according to the paper.
After reading that CBS News article, I had to go find the original paper.
I found it on the official Census Bureau website, and it says that in 2023 only 17 percent of young adults had attained the 5 major milestones of adulthood…
In 2005, the most common combination was young adults who had all five milestones (about 26% experienced all five milestones). By 2023, however, the proportion of young adults who experienced all five markers of adulthood declined to about 17%, and young adults who reported only experiencing the three economic milestones of living away from parents, completing education, and participating in the labor force was the modal combination. Finally, the residual category in Figure 2 representing the proportion of young adults who experienced any other combination of milestones declined from 36% to 30%, suggesting that the experiences of young adults have become more homogeneous for contemporary cohorts.
17 percent!
Just think about that.
If our society was in good shape, most of our young adults would be in a position to achieve all 5 milestones by the age of 25.
But our society is not in good shape. According to the Census Bureau paper, the primary reason why young adults are not achieving these milestones is because they are “facing economic barriers”…
The reason for this, according to the paper, is that more young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 are facing economic barriers compared with previous generations. Changing societal attitudes around family formation are also contributing to the sharp decline in the share of young people reaching what the U.S. Census Bureau considers to be “key milestones.”
If I keep hitting people with more evidence day after day, maybe the skeptics will finally start getting it.
Our young adults are not entering the middle class fast enough to replace the older middle class adults that are dying off.
As a result, the middle class is steadily shrinking.
To be a part of the middle class, you have to be able to get a middle class job.
And right now the competition for middle class jobs among our young people is extremely fierce.
If you doubt this, just consider what a 23-year-old college graduate recently admitted to NBC News…
“Every guy I know that is without a job right now wants to work, but they just can’t get it,” said Eli McCullick, who has been looking for a job for more than a year after he graduated with a degree in sociology from the University of Colorado Boulder. “It’s demoralizing for guys who really want to get ahead and it’s just not happening.”
McCullick, 23, said he hasn’t even been able to get an hourly job at a restaurant or doing cleaning work at a hotel in the Boulder area, where he’s living at a property his father owns. The only way he has been able to earn money to cover his food and daily expenses has been to do odd jobs for friends and relatives, like shoveling horse manure, mowing lawns and helping an older woman prepare for a yard sale.
There is no way that I would want to be a fresh college graduate looking for a job right now.
It is terrible out there.
Another recent college graduate told NBC News that nearly all of his friends are unemployed and living with their parents…
Sean Breen, who graduated this spring with a communications degree from California State University, Long Beach, said he and nearly all of his high school friends, both men and women, are back home living with their parents and unemployed. He said even those who went to top-ranked colleges and got seemingly in-demand degrees are unable to find work.
“It is like a high school reunion,” Breen said. “We’re all, we are back in Marin County this summer, all unemployed, all trying to find a barista job, a part-time something, because we haven’t found anything.”
After having applied to hundreds of jobs, he said, Breen now plans to go to graduate school in the fall at Trinity College in Ireland, where tuition is significantly lower and, he hopes, jobs will be more plentiful.
This is the reality of what is really going on out there.
Those that keep insisting that “everything is fine” just need to stop.
The job market is freezing up and layoffs have absolutely skyrocketed compared to last year…
Layoffs have risen 140 percent from a year ago, a new report reveals.
Companies have already announced more than 800,000 job cuts this year alone, the highest since the pandemic upended the economy in 2020.
US-based employers cut 62,075 jobs in July compared to 25,885 in the same month last year.
Those numbers are staggering.
Unfortunately, 62 percent of U.S. consumers believe that unemployment will continue to get even worse during the months ahead…
- About 62% of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan’s latest monthly survey.
- That’s bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession.
Do you remember how difficult it was to get a good job during the Great Recession?
Well, now we are entering a similar time.
That may help to explain why “job hugging” has become a thing in 2025…
Job hugging is the act of holding onto a job “for dear life,” consultants at Korn Ferry, an organizational consulting firm, wrote last week.
The rate at which workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs — known as the quits rate — has hovered around 2% since the start of the year, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Outside of the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic, levels haven’t been that consistently low since early 2016.
The quits rate is a barometer of workers’ perceptions of the broader labor market, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. In this case, they may be nervous about getting another job or aren’t enthusiastic about their ability to find one, she said.
If you have a job that you highly value, don’t let go.
Hold on to it as tightly as you can, because if you lose it you may not find work again for a long time.
A lot of people are shocked by what is happening, but the truth is that nobody should be surprised.
There was no way that we were going to be able to defy the laws of economics forever.
The inexorable march of time cannot be stopped, and our future is going to look a whole lot different than most people anticipated.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM
KING NEWs
| The King Report August 21, 2025 Issue 7560 | Independent View of the News |
| Fangs and Mag 7 stocks got hammered early on Wednesday. This dragged the DJIA and DJIA to moderate losses. Gold soared; USUs were up 7/32 at 11:00 ET while the dollar was modestly lower. ESUs opened modestly higher on Tuesday night but quickly commenced a plodding decline that made a double bottom of 6409.25 at 23:45 ET and 1:05 ET. ESUs then plodded higher until they hit 6429.75 at 7:02 ET. ESUs traded sideways until they began to tumble at 9:39 ET. Due to aggressive selling of Fangs and related trading sardines, ESUs sank to a daily low of 6362.75 at 10:53 ET. Then, someone feverishly manipulated ESUs to 6402.00 at 11:34 ET to boost ‘the marks’ for traders by the European close. After a retreat to 6380.75 at 11:54 ET, ESUs marched to 6413.25 at 13:45 ET. ESUs then fell to 6390.00 at 14:13 ET, just two minutes before the 14:15 ET Settlement for expired August VIX options. After a brief pause for the 14:15 ET VIX Fix (and Settlement), ESUs dropped to 6385.50 at 14:22 ET. Two Fed dissenters appeared alone in favoring rate cut as tariff debate simmers: meeting minutes “Almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting,” the minutes of the July 29-30 meeting said. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller both voted against the decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged, favoring instead a quarter-percentage-point reduction… Fed policymakers assessed that the effects of higher tariffs had become more apparent in some goods prices but that the overall effect on the economy and inflation remained to be seen… https://nypost.com/2025/08/20/business/two-fed-dissenters-appeared-alone-in-favoring-rate-cut-as-tariff-debate-simmers-meeting-minutes/ Fed Minutes Show Majority of FOMC Saw Inflation as Greater Risk – BBG 14:00 ET Here’s another excuse to NOT cut rates: “The staff judged that asset valuation pressures were elevated… Several participants noted concerns about elevated asset valuations…” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdf Though the FOMC Minutes were more hawkish than expected, ESUs rallied on trader buying and the notion that the selling of Fangs/Mag 7 stocks had been absorbed. Dip Buyers Will Temper the Selloff in Tech Stocks – Bloomberg 12:05 ET. Bloomberg is correct. Historically, there are eager buyers on dips in strong bull markets and bubbles. This is why stocks seldom tumble, let alone crash, from their highs. This is also why the formation of market tops tends to be a complex and lengthy process. However, at some point a critical mass ‘gets it’ and the avalanche develops. ESUs rallied to 6424.25 at 15:50 ET and then fell to 6411.25 at 16:00 ET. Trump calls on Fed’s Cook to resign as administration heightens focus on mortgage fraud President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook to resign after a top administration official suggested she had committed a criminal offense… FHFA director Bill Pulte, a close Trump ally, wrote to Bondi on Aug. 15 and alleged that Cook “has falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”… Pulte’s letter said Cook took out a mortgage on a property in Ann Arbor, Mich., and stated in the application that she would use it as her primary residence. Then, two weeks later, according to the letter, she took out another mortgage on a condominium in Georgia and said that would be her primary residence… https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250820201/trump-calls-on-feds-cook-to-resign-as-administration-heightens-focus-on-mortgage-fraud Fed Gov. Lisa Cook’s response, “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position… I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.” @j_fishback: The New York Times is now implying that @Pulte is racist for his criminal referral of Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud, because she is “the first Black woman to ever serve as Fed governor.” https://x.com/j_fishback/status/1958277572883558544 Leftists are feverishly supporting and defending Fed Gov. Lisa Cook. She is an MIT economist that specialized in the Soviet/Russian economy and the economic impact of racial violence. @RapidResponse47: U.S. Director of Federal Housing @pulte: “One of the reasons that we fired many of the board members when we came into Fannie and Freddie was we found a lot of multi-family fraud on the books—and we’ve had to clean that up, and we’re still in the process of cleaning that up.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1958192029021720949 In the betting market, the odds of a 25bp rate cut in September are down to 70%. 50bps is 3.4%. https://x.com/faststocknewss/status/1958190714346483992/photo/1 Positive aspects of previous session Fangs and related trading sardines rallied sharply after being hammered in the morning. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined 300.40. There were no significant rotation or value buyers. Precious metals rallied sharply. USUs, which peaked at +12/32, closed +2/32. FOMC Minutes were more hawkish than expected. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the Fed use stubborn inflation and the US asset bubble as excuse to hold rates? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6382.68 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6408.40; 6343.86 Statement from Marcus Lemonis, Executive Chairman of Bed Bath & Beyond We will not open or operate retail stores in California. This decision isn’t about politics — it’s about reality. California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America. It’s a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, and harder to deliver value to customers. The result? Higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages that many businesses simply cannot sustain, and endless regulations that strangle growth… https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250820615513/en/Statement-from-Marcus-Lemonis-Executive-Chairman-of-Bed-Bath-Beyond CA Gov. Newsom has surged ahead of Dem leftists in polling for the Dem President Candidate in 2028. Republicans are thrilled. The oily CA Gov. has a deplorable track record and is more immature than DJT. Polymarket: Newsom 30%, AOC 14%, Buttigieg 8% (Some think Team Newsom is rigging this market) https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1958179262768218597 @EricLDaugh: Gavin Newsom has just lost left-wing Morning Joe, who is calling his impersonation of Donald Trump an “embarrassment.” “It’s quite embarrassing, actually. Gavin Newsom, you see what he’s doing online? […] Don’t try to turn the ship 180 degrees. They don’t know what to do!” “Donald Trump is not on the ballot in ’26, he’s not on the ballot in ’28…you’re not running against Donald Trump!” This is how you know it’s backfiring. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1958144368281321491 The NYT: The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis The party is bleeding support beyond the ballot box, a new analysis shows. Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot. That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from… (That’s why ‘they’ need to cheat and enlist illegal immigrants!) https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html Fed’s Bostic Says Cryptocurrency Isn’t Big Enough to Threaten Financial Stability – BBG 15:53 ET FanDuel Teams UP with CME for Bets on Stocks and Commodities: BBG (It really is a casino now!) The contracts… will be framed as regulated financial products rather than wagers… multiple times a day… with simple “yes” or “no” positions for as little as $1… (Makes 0DTE options look prudent!) Crypto is estimated to be a $4 trillion market – and Bostic doesn’t believe $4T could cause a problem! There are too many academics and leftists on the Fed; and too few ‘participants’ with useful experience. Multiple Illinois KFC (Yum) fast-food locations suddenly shut down, implement mass layoffs https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/multiple-illinois-kfc-fast-food-locations-suddenly-shut-down-implement-mass-layoffs/ar-AA1p8vz5 Fast food, due to employment costs and regulations, is too expensive. We noted last week that a Double Whopper with Cheese cost us $9.09 plus about 9% in taxes. McDonald’s to slash combo meal prices to win back budget-conscious shoppers McDonald’s and its U.S. franchisees agreed to keep the cost of eight popular combo meals 15% lower than if the items were bought separately…The average price of a Big Mac in the U.S. in 2019 was $4.39, according to Erlinger. Last year, the average cost was $5.29, an increase of 21% with all the inflationary pressures factored in from the past few years, he said. https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mcdonalds-slash-combo-meal-prices-win-back-budget-conscious-shoppers Today – The KC Fed Jackson Hole Symposium commences; Powell speaks on Friday. Given the robust rebound in Fangs and related trading sardines, the usual suspects will eager buy them for a rally. If organic sellers don’t show up, the usual suspects will try to foment a robust trading sardine rally. Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 225k, Continuing Claims 1.96m; Aug Phil Fed Business Outlook 6.7; August S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.7, Servicers PMI 54.2, Composite PMI 53.5; July LEI -0.1; July Existing Home Sales 625k; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (once again speaks!) 7:30 ET ESUs are -5.50 NQUs are -18.75; AU is -2.50; & USUs are +1/32 at 20:35 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6254; 100-day MA: 5945; 150-day MA: 5933; 200-day MA: 5938 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,023; 100-day MA: 42,564; 150-day MA: 42,850; 200-day MA: 43,000 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6395.78 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6111.64 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6336.88 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6422.96 triggers a buy signal Biden DOJ flagged president’s ‘problematic’ pardons, warned violent inmates could be released Biden’s own Justice Department expressed concern that the incoming Trump administration could overturn clemency orders because of undefined language… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/biden-justice-dept-flagged-problematic-pardons-warned-violent VP Vance: “I don’t know why Democrats seem to love public disorder and chaos almost as a political ideology… Democrats have gotten so divorced from the communities they allegedly serve.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1958307281579237549 Tulsi Gabbard axes nearly HALF of spy agency staff in earthquake ‘Deep State’ shake-up https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15018849/Tulsi-Gabbard-axes-nearly-HALF-spy-agency-staff-earthquake-Deep-State-shake-up.html Cancer rates in Australians under 50 are rising at a pace that’s alarming doctors and scientists Between 2000 and 2024 — in 30 to 39-year-olds — early onset prostate cancer increased by 500 per cent, pancreatic cancer by 200 per cent, liver cancer by 150 per cent, uterine cancer by 138 per cent and kidney cancer by 85 per cent… What’s changed?… (Australia’s draconian Covid vax measures that got 94% of Australians vaccinated?) https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-07/cancer-diagnosis-rates-under-50s-rising-causes-four-corners/105495620 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Supreme Court Hands Trump Huge Win On Deporting ‘Worst Of The Worst’ Illegals
Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025 – 06:42 AM
The US Supreme Court just lifted a lower court’s order that required the Trump administration to give people 10 days’ notice and a chance to object before deporting them to a third country.
“The United States is facing a crisis of illegal immigration, in no small part because many aliens most deserving of removal are often the hardest to remove,” Solicitor General John Saur wrote in an emergency application to the court in May.
“When illegal aliens commit crimes in this country, they are typically ordered removed. But when those crimes are especially heinous, their countries of origin are often unwilling to take them back. As a result, criminal aliens are often allowed to stay in the United States for years on end, victimizing law-abiding Americans in the meantime.”
The brief unsigned order came in the case known as Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. with (surprise, surprise) Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan dissenting from the decision, who said they “cannot join so gross an abuse” of the high court’s authority.
“Apparently, the Court finds the idea that thousands will suffer violence in farflung locales more palatable than the remote possibility that a District Court exceeded its remedial powers when it ordered the Government to provide notice and process to which the plaintiffs are constitutionally and statutorily entitled,” Sotomayor wrote.
“That use of discretion is as incomprehensible as it is inexcusable.”
The government has tried to speed up the deportation process “by removing aliens to third countries that have agreed to accept them.”
“Convincing third countries to accept some of the most undesirable aliens requires sensitive diplomacy, which involves negotiation and the balancing of other foreign-policy interests,” it stated.
Now, the administration can proceed with fast-track deportations of “some of the worst of the worst illegal aliens” to countries it has made deals with, such as South Sudan.
Of course, not everyone is happy.
“The ramifications of the Supreme Court’s order will be horrifying,” said Trina Realmuto, executive director of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance.
“It strips away critical due process protections…”
We look forward to seeing President Trump’s response.
end
Lisa Cook’d: DOJ To Investigate Fed Governor, Urges Her Removal Over Alleged Mortgage Fraud
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 11:56 AM
The saga surrounding the upcoming termination of the Fed’s DEI hire just escalated dramatically after the Justice Department announced it would investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook, after a top Justice official informed Fed Chair Jerome Powell of the probe and encouraged him to remove her from the board, in a letter sent Thursday.
Ed Martin, the DOJ official who led similar investigations into Adam Schiff NYAG General Letitia James, told Powell that Cook’s case “requires further examination.”
“At this time, I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your Board,” Martin wrote. “Do it today before it is too late! After all, no American thinks it is appropriate that she serve during this time with a cloud hanging over her.”
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte wrote a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Martin on Aug. 15 suggesting that Cook may have committed a criminal offense. The letter alleged that Cook “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”
Cook on Wednesday said she intended to remain at the central bank, after Trump also called for her resignation. She may, however, find that difficult to do with a criminal probe – or worse – hanging over her head.
“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said in an emailed statement via a Fed spokesperson. “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”
“This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist. “They’re pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control.” The outspoken Democrat Sahm is best known for dumping on her own “rule’ – which was ripped off from Goldman’s former chief economist Ed McKelvey – so the spike in unemployment wouldn’t show the US economy as sinking into a recession during the Biden admin.
A resignation would create another opening for Trump to fill on the Fed board as the president piles pressure on the central bank to lower rates. Trump has lashed out at Powell as “Too Late” for not slashing rates months ago, and suggested he too should step aside. Trump has also heavily criticized Powell and the Fed over the cost of its ongoing headquarters renovation project.
One Trump’s campaign to eliminate Cook is successful, it will give him the opportunity to exert more influence over the US central bank by securing a majority on its seven-member board of governors.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
