099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 34
323 C HSBC 22
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 20 6
709 C BARCLAYS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 16
905 C ADM 27
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 63 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 6300 OZ or 0.1959 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,113 contracts for 3,311,300 OR 102.995 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 57 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1777 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.885 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 30.795 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 120,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.900 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 43.7665 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.186 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS) +10.4932 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 114.7445 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 136.152 TONNES QUITE SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 1119 CONTRACTS OI TO 160,144 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 350 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 320 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1119 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1469 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.29 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.345 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.29 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.66 PTS OR 1.45%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 214.70 PTS OR 0.86%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 23.12 PTS OR 0.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.57%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1812 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1845/ Oil UP TO 63.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1812 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3597 CONTRACTS TO 434,098 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1677). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //THURSDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1920 CONTRACTS (OR 5.972 TONNES). WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FRIDAY. THE CROOKS COULD NOT FLEECE ANY OF OUR NET LONGS AS THE COMEX LEVEL OI WAS EXTREMELY LOW AND THUS VERY VERY STICKY: AND AS SUCH THE OI ROSE QUITE BIT DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY:
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AS MENTIONED ABOVE: TONIGHT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST;
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AUGUST 7 THE CME ANNOUNCED MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR AUGUST OF A MONSTER 1750 CONTRACTS FOR 175,000 OZ OR (5.4432 TONNES OF GOLD, THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD!!. WITH ALL THE CHAOS AT THE COMEX IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AUG 10 TOTALLING 776 CONTRACTS OR 77,600 OZ (2.418 TONNES).MUCH TO MY ANGER TONIGHT, THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 848 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 84,800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES.
THUS THE TOTAL FOR AUGUST IS 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400OZ OR 10.4932 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS. THE RECEPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY NOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND AS WE HAVE JUST LEARNED THAT THE FRBNY HAS RETURNED ONLY 14,000 OZ AS THEIR LOANS TO THE BIS REMAIN AT 34+ TONNES.(JULY 31 FIGURES) IT SEEMS NOW THAT THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS IN QUITE A HURRY TO GET ITS GOLD BACK!! (AND PROBABLE OWNER OF THOSE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS)
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 3 ISSUANCES FOR A MONSTER 3374 CONTRACTS OR 337,400 OZ ( 10.4932 TONNES)
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1920 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 808 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE AT MONTH END WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED THREE WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 43.7445 TONNES +10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK (3 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 114.7445 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 236 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE 43.7665 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 114.7445 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1677 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1677 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1677 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS WILL APPEAR FOR SURE ON THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST AND MAYBE IT BEGAN STARTING TODAY AUGUST 21
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 808 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S FIRST THREE ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.4932 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1275TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THURSDAY’S AUG 7 HUGE 5.4432 EXCHANGE FOR RISK, SATURDAY’S//MONDAY AUG 10 STRONG 776 CONTRACT ISSUANCE (77600 OZ) FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN WEDNESDAY.S AUGUST 12 FOR 2.637 TONNES/// TOTAL EX FOR RISK AUGUST = 10.4932 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
104.2513 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
EQUALS
114.7445 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $6.80/ /) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION (SAVING IT TODAY, FRIDAY AND THAT LOSS IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE SPREADERS///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH TUESDAY’S/RAID!.
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: THREE SO FAR, AUGUST 7 THROUGH AUG 12 AT 3374 CONTRACTS FOR 337,400 OZ (10.4932 TONNES OF GOLD) TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 10.4932 TONNES
THUS 114.2513 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS) + 10.4932 TONNES = 114.7445 TONNES.
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ANALYSIS AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS TOTAL OF 5.972 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE TO WHICH WE ADD LAST AUG 8 RECORD BREAKING QUEUE JUMP OF 10.8775 TONNES OF GOLD ON TOP OF AUG 12: 1.7604 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WEDNESDAY;S AUG 13 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.527 TONNES AND THEN THURSDAY AUG 14 A HUGE 2.463 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND FRIDAY;S AUG 15 QUEUE JUMP OF .7030 TONNES AND THEN SATURDAY’S 1.617 TONNE QUEUE JUMP AND THEN AUG 19: 1.058 QUEUE JUMP THEN YESTERDAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.263 TONNES , AND THEN TODAY;S 0.1275 QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR FOR 10.4932 TONNES FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 114.7445 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.80
WE HAD A MASSIVE 6594 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1920 CONTRACTS OR 192000 0Z (5.972 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 135,619 contracts// extremely poor//everybody vacating the comex???
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
AUGUST 21 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entries i) out of Asahi: 9952.03 oz total withdrawal 9952.03 oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 63 notice(s) 6300 OZ .1959 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 344 contracts 34400 OZ 1.0699 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 33,113 notices 3,311,300 oz 102.995 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits:
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
1 entries:
i) Out of HSBC 12,262.960 oz
total withdrawal 12,262.960 oz
adjustments: 1
a) dealer to customer Asahi: 3954.73 oz (123 kilobars)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 407 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2581 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 2622 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 41 CONTRACTS OR 4100 OZ OF GOLD (0.1275 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AND THEIR APPETITE FOR THIS GOLD IS UNABATED!
SEPT LOST 214 CONTRACTS TO 4232
OCTOBER GAINED 378 CONTRACTS UP TO 60,409
We had 411 contracts filed for today representing 41,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 20 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 63 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,113 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 407 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (63 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,351,700 OZ OR 104.2513 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE ISSUANCES OF 10.4932 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/AUG 7 , 11 AND 12TH = 114.7445 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (33,113 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (407 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (63 x 100 oz) which equals 3,351,7000 OZ OR 104.186 TONNES + 10.4932 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 114.7445 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 114.7445TONNES WHICH IS A MONSTER FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. AND THIS RUNS COUNTER INTUATIVE TO OUR CONSTANT RAIDS
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,031,308.902 oz 63.18 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,563,812.006 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,295,507.280 or 662.37 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,268,304.726 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,264,199 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 599.19 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE AUGUST 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
AUGUST 22 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries: i) Out of HSBC 12,262.960 oz total withdrawal 12,262.960 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 57 CONTRACT(S) (285,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3 contracts (0.015 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1777 Contracts (8.885 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
0 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entry:
1 entries:
i) Out of HSBC 12,262.960 oz
total withdrawal 12,262.960 o
ADJUSTMENTs 1
i) Out of Brinks; customer to dealer: 270,140.900 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.670 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 508.486 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 60 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 24 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX HAVING UNDERGONE A QUEUE JUMP AS THESE GUYS ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 6216 CONTRACTS UP TO 53,171 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 183 CONTRACTS TO 1400
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 57 or 285,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 70,113 good//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1777 X5,000 oz = 8.885 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (60) AND the number of notices served upon today (57 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (1777) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(60) minus number of notices served upon today (57)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 8.900 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 8.900 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.670 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/508.486 million. 41.33%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
J
GLD INVENTORY: 956.77 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.183 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/S
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ/RON STOEFERLE
GOLD INTERVIEW: RANDY SMALLWOOD OF WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS:
SPECIAL THANKS TO KEVIN W FOR SENDING:
END
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
PMs ready for next move
Quiet conditions in precious metals belie explosive upside potential, given a government bond market crisis developing in all major currencies.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 22∙Paid |
In quiet trading, the current consolidation phase in precious metals extended this week. This morning in Europe, gold at $3,330 was down $6 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $38.00 was barely changed. Gold has now been trending sideways for four months, half of 2025 to date while silver has outperformed with the gold/silver ratio falling from 105 to 87.
A notable feature in these otherwise unremarkable conditions has been stand for deliveries on Comex. Since the end of July, a whopping 102.8 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, taking the total so far this year to 873.6 tonnes. In silver, over the same periods, 267.5 tonnes and 8,665 tonnes have stood for delivery respectively.
Those in the know are hoarding physical at the expense of paper. But in the very short-term, so far as prices are concerned, the last trade for September options is next Tuesday with calls expiring, providing a strong incentive for market makers to mark gold and silver lower.
This short-term stuff will prove to be irrelevant. We are in the eye of a financial hurricane, and this is set to change.
With trading in gold and silver quiet, we turn our attention to a developing bond market crisis, and how it impacts gold and silver. Long maturity yields are rising as evidence mounts of a buyers’ strike on a global scale. The only reasons that yields have not gone even higher is because governments have restricted supply by funding in short maturities, and markets are still in a summer torpor with investment managers away from their desks.
When they return in the coming weeks, they will find that CPI inflation is rising, economies are stagnating, and the government deficits which require funding are turning out to be larger than expected.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield is higher than it has been since 2008 and appears to be going higher still:
The 30-year JGB yield is double that. Germany’s 30-year bund tells a similar story:
Uk’s long gilt yield is similarly bearish, while the US long bond yield is left slightly behind but look set to break out at any moment:
It is a global phenomenon common to the largest four currencies. Rising yields at the long end of the curve are now dragging benchmark 10-year yields higher. And when the long bond yield rises above 5.1%, it is likely to trigger a crisis not just back down the yield curve, but for equity valuations and those of other financial assets as well.
So where would that leave gold and silver? Clearly, a debt crisis popping the equity bubble has major implications for fiat currencies.
Until recently, traders believed that higher interest rates and bond yields were bad for gold, but that myth ignored the experience of the 1970s and has been blown out of the water by gold correlating with higher bond yields. The reason is simple: higher bond yields reflect a decline in confidence in the issuer and/or an expectation of a fall in the currency’s purchasing power and the value of associated credit. It is the fundamental reason why central banks are selling fiat for gold.
The risk to government bond values is tied to a rapid deterioration in government finances. Stagnating economies combined with high debt to GDP metrics are leading them into debt traps, which can only be negated by massive cuts in government spending. There is no evidence that the necessary cuts are forthcoming. Keynesians believing in credit stimulation completely wrong-footed.
Therefore, gold whose purchasing power is relatively consistent over the centuries appears to rise as currencies decline. But after its 4-month consolidation, gold is now close to breaking out on the upside as credit risk in currencies increases, as the technical chart below illustrates.
And silver leads the way. If silver was a stock, we would say it is undergoing a radical rerating.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 237
5. COMMODITY REPORT.LUMBER
Tariff-Driven Rally Reverses In Lumber Market
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 05:20 PM
There is some good news in the lumber market: contracts have plunged more than 14% in recent weeks, reversing highs last seen during the pandemic shortages. The sharp reversal comes as bets on tariff-driven cost pressures and lower interest rates failed to lift demand. At the same time, disappointing housing data and weak earnings across the housing industry underscored the trouble festering.
Traders ramped up bets that U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports and lower interest rates would lift costs and demand, but housing activity has failed to deliver any demand tailwinds.
There has been weak builder confidence (hitting 13-year lows), disappointing housing permits, and earnings misses at Home Depot, James Hardie Industries, Builders FirstSource, and UFP Industries.
Earlier today…
Canadian mills are operating at a loss, which will likely mean lumber supply cuts are just ahead. Even as tariffs doubled this summer, traders remained in “wait-and-see” mode on interest rates. Now the FOMC is preparing for an interest rate decision next month.
On Thursday, lumber futures for September delivery traded around $604 per thousand board feet, down about 14% from the settlement of $695.50 per thousand board feet on Aug. 1.
Greg Kuta, president and CEO of lumber broker Westline Capital Strategies, told MarketWatch that lumber demand is sagging, with possible stabilization next year after Canadian mills dial back production.
Prices “got ahead of themselves with some overbuying on the way up, and a very large and unsustainable futures premium” developed, according to Steve Loebner, vice president of forest products and risk management at Sherwood Lumber, adding that upward pressure in price was driven by tariffs and future supply levels.
END
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.66 PTS OR 1.45%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 214.70 PTS OR 0.86%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 23.12 PTS OR 0.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.57%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1812 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1845/ Oil UP TO 63.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1812 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1845 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1812 (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1845
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 214.70 PTS OR 0.86%
2. Nikkei closed UP 23.12 PTS OR 0.05%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.64 EURO FALLS TO 1.1594 DOWN 18 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.625//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.60…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7525Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.604 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.340
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.455
3j Gold at $3327.60 Silver at: 38.06 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.41
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.60/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.625% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8096 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.93.86 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.338 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.929 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.760 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 40.94
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7510 UP 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.487UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.996 UP 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rebound Ahead Of Powell’s Speech
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 08:35 AM
After five days of selling – the longest stretch since Jan 2 – US stock futures halted this week’s run of losses in muted trading ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, even as markets scaled back bets on imminent interest rate cuts following very strong economic data on Thursday. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 rose 0.2% erasing an earlier decline, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% as Nvidia shares fall 1% in premarket after the Information reported the chipmaker had instructed component suppliers to stop production related to the H20 AI chip. European stocks advanced 0.2%, nudging toward an all-time high. US Treasuries held steady after Thursday’s pullback, with the 10-year rate at 4.33%. The dollar was little changed. there are no scheduled events on the US economic data calendar; Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at 10am ET at Jackson Hole with a slew of other central bank comments expected from the event. The Fed speaker slate also includes Boston Fed President Collins at 9am and Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 11:30am; hawkish comments by Hammack on Thursday pushed yields to session highs. Swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October and a second one by year-end.
In premarket trading, Nvidia shares fell 1.1% after the chip giant instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics and Amkor to stop production related to the H20 AI chip. Other Magnificent Seven stocks were all higher (Alphabet +1.1%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.5%, Microsoft +0.09%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.2%). Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- Biohaven shares (BHVN) gain 13% after the company said the FDA communicated to the company on Aug. 21 that an expected decision regarding the NDA for Troriluzole will still be the fourth quarter.
- Cameco (CCJ) shares rise 1.9% in premarket trading after National Bank Financial raised its price target on the uranium company to C$115 from C$110 as it sees the company’s Westinghouse stake adding value.
- Gap shares (GAP) fall 2.1% in premarket trading on Friday as Barclays downgrades to equal-weight from overweight saying the previous bullish scenario for double-digit operating margins by FY26 is off the table.
- Intuit shares (INTU) decline 6.1% ahead of the bell after the tax software company’s tepid forecast overshadowed an otherwise strong fourth quarter report.
- Ross Stores shares (ROST) rise 2.7% after the retailer posted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate after better-than-expected tariff-related costs.
- Workday shares (WDAY) drop 5.1% after the human-resources software company reported second-quarter professional services adjusted gross profit that missed estimates. The company also announced it has agreed to acquire Paradox.
- Zoom Communications shares (ZM) rise 5.0% in premarket trading on Friday after the video conferencing company raised its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
- Trucking stocks might be active on Friday after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US will halt issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers. Watch: Saia, Old Dominion Freight Line, Knight-Swift Transportation and JB Hunt.
A selloff in big tech this week halted the record-breaking rally in US stocks, ahead of Powell’s latest policy blueprint, which will signal whether the Fed will stay cautious on inflation, which is showing signs of stickiness, or tilt toward supporting a softer labor market. A Bloomberg equal-weighted index of the Mag 7 has dropped 3.4% since Monday, putting it on track for its steepest weekly decline since April’s market rout.
The stakes are heightened by pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates and growing divisions within the Fed’s rate-setting committee. To keep his options open, Powell may emphasize that the Fed’s September move will be guided by employment and inflation figures set for release early next month. Swaps have reduced the odds of aggressive near-term easing, now pricing about a 65% chance of a cut next month and fewer than two moves this year. Little more than a week ago, markets were betting on a full quarter-point cut in September, with some traders even positioning for a half-point move.
Powell is due to speak at 10 a.m. New York time (full preview here). A hawkish speech is expected to weigh on shorter-maturity government bond yields. It could also add pressure to the recent series of large options market trades, which are positioned for an outsized rate cut next month and a total of 75 basis points in reductions by year-end.
“If the Fed doesn’t cut in September, markets will drop because they’re expecting the Fed to do something. If they cut too much, markets may take it as a sign that the Fed is losing its independence, which may trigger much higher inflation,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “It’s like Goldilocks with two bears and a bull.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in chemical, health care and auto names. Paper and forestry stocks rise after a report that Suzano will increase pulp prices, while Akzo Nobel gained after activist investor Cevian Capital built a stake in the company. Polish banks plunge after the country’s government announced plans to raise corporate taxes on lenders. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Akzo Nobel gains as much 5.4% after activist investor Cevian Capital acquired a 3% stake in the company, putting its weight behind a strategy overhaul at the struggling Dulux paintmaker
- Hensoldt and RENK gain as much as 4.5% and 1.1% after being upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi, with the broker expecting the companies to benefit from Germany’s increased defense spending
- European forestry stocks are rising on Friday after a report that Suzano will increase pulp prices starting in September; Metsa Board shares rise as much as 4.7% and Stora Enso as much as 3.6%
- Standard Chartered gains as much as 3.5% after the US Department of Justice rejected claims by two whistleblowers that it failed to properly investigate allegations of sanctions violations by the bank, the lender said
- Morgan Advanced Materials shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in more than a month, after the materials and components firm agreed to sell its MMS business unit, including 75% shareholding in MCIL
- Polish banks are among the worst performers in Europe on Friday morning after the country’s Finance Ministry announced plans to raise corporate taxes on lenders to help ease pressure on a strained budget
- Dino Polska shares drop as much as 8.4%, briefly hitting their lowest level in over four months, after the Polish supermarket chain reported results below expectations for the second quarter, according to analysts
- Aspen shares slide as much as 16% in Johannesburg, to its lowest intraday level since April 2020, after the pharmaceutical company said it expects its full-year normalized headline EPS to come in below analyst expectations
- Deutsche Post shares fall as much as 1.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux lowered its recommendation to hold from buy saying the firm will struggle to achieve its Ebit guidance of more than €6 billion
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks crept higher, as a rally in Chinese and South Korean shares helped offset losses in Taiwan and India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1%, with TSMC among the biggest drags while Tencent supported the regional benchmark. Equities in South Korea gained ahead of President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to Japan. Vietnam’s main equity gauge dropped 2.5%, and Australian shares also fell. A measure of onshore Chinese stocks recorded its biggest weekly rise since November. Gains in local chipmakers provided an added tailwind Friday after a report that US rival Nvidia has instructed component makers to stop production related to its H20 AI chips. Shares also advanced in Hong Kong. Next week will see central bank policy decisions in South Korea and the Philippines.
In FX, the Dollar extended yesterday’s gains overnight and is marginally outperforming across most of the G10 complex as NY sits down. The Norwegian krone is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The yen also weakens 0.2%. The Dollar index continued to rally overnight, now at its highest point in two weeks. USDJPY is up 21bps to ~148.75 after Japan’s national CPI data for Jul came in cooler than expectations at +3.1% on headline. And the EUR is mostly unchanged on the day, with mixed signals overnight from data (German Q2 GDP contracted but eurozone wages are up 4% YoY). No major data releases in the US today; all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell at 10AM as well as other speakers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
In rates, treasuries inch lower, with US 10-year yields rising 1 bp to 4.34%. The 2-year yield is now at the highest level since the beginning of the month at 3.80%, as inflation and price data curbed cuts priced into the next few meetings. There is little price action in USTs overnight after yesterday’s sell-off as the market awaits Powell’s speech later this morning. Yesterday, we saw 3bps of cuts priced out of the September meeting, down to a 70% chance of a 25bps cut at the meeting. Gilts underperform, pushing UK 10-year borrowing costs up 3 bps to 4.76% despite today’s UK Retails Sales print being delayed until September 5th. JGBs are higher across the curve after inflation data continues to sustain the markets expectations for a rate hike by the BOJ. In terms of flows, we saw two way interest in September FOMC, and flattening of the nominal curve.
In credit, macro credit is opening the final session of the week just a touch firmer in sympathy with equity futures in the green and European CDS index spreads largely flat. Risk continued to trade soft yesterday for the fourth session in a row. CDX HY came a touch under pressure with risk generically offered, while there was further negative gamma buying of CDX IG protection into the spread widening. FM was the most active community in vol yesterday, leaning generally better buyers of IG vol, while HY vol was offered by both FM and RM. All eyes and ears will be on Powell this morning (10am ET) with any hawkish tone expected to put pressure on the front end of the curve and synthetic credit spreads.
In commodities, oil prices are steady, with WTI crude futures near $63.50 a barrel. Spot gold falls $10.
Looking at today’s US calendar, there are no scheduled events. The Fed speaker slate also includes Boston Fed President Collins at 9am and Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 11:30am; hawkish comments by Hammack on Thursday pushed yields to session highs
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX little changed, CAC 40 +0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.34%
- VIX -0.1 points at 16.53
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.1
- euro little changed at $1.1598
- WTI crude little changed at $63.48/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Fed officials are reportedly readying to quietly pull back from the signature Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) policy innovation announced five years ago in which they focused on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices, with officials to abandon that approach as it is now seen as no longer relevant given the backdrop of high and more volatile inflation. According to Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos noted that Powell is expected to unveil the shift at Jackson Hole on Friday, although changes won’t impact near-term policy decisions and are instead part of the framework the Fed uses to interpret its mandate inflation and employment mandates: WSJ
- Nvidia asked suppliers Samsung and Amkor to stop production related to its H20 AI chip after Beijing urged local firms to avoid using it, The Information reported. CEO Jensen Huang reiterated the processor has no security backdoors. Nvidia shares fell premarket (NVDA -110bps). BBG
- The Trump-Putin Alaska summit followed by the visit of European leaders at the White House were supposed to jump-start momentum to end the Russia-Ukraine war. A week later we are back at the same old stand, as Vladimir Putin is playing familiar tricks and showing no serious interest in a deal. The question is what President Trump will do about it. WSJ
- Elon Musk unsuccessfully tried to enlist Mark Zuckerberg in his unsolicited bid for OpenAI this year. BBG
- Trump said the US is leading the AI race and that AI is the hottest thing in decades.
- Trump’s administration reportedly considers a plan to reallocate USD 2bln in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals and aims to give Commerce Secretary Lutnick greater oversight of minerals financing decisions, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Rubio said the US is pausing all issuances of worker visas for commercial truck drivers with immediate effect. It was separately reported that President Trump’s administration said it is reviewing all 55mln people with US visas for potential deportable violations, according to AP.
- Austan Goolsbee called the recent spike in services inflation “dangerous,” but hopes it proves a blip. He also said the September meeting will be “live.” Susan Collins told the WSJ a rate cut may be appropriate if labor market weakness outweighs inflation risks. BBG
- The US won’t demand equity stakes from chipmakers including TSMC and Micron, which are expanding in the US, a person familiar said. BBG
- Euro-zone negotiated wages jumped 4% from a year ago, the ECB said, supporting its caution on further reducing interest rates. BBG
- Japan’s national CPI for Jul came in at +3.1% headline (down from +3.3% in June and inline w/the Street) while the core number (ex-food and energy) was flat at +3.4% (also inline w/the Street) BBG
- Germany’s economic output shrank by more than initially estimated in the second quarter, with industry faring worse than expected as U.S. tariffs hurt exports. Germany’s final Q2 GDP report is revised lower from the preliminary reading (now -0.3% vs. the prior -0.1%). WSJ
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) signalled an openness for a rate cut as soon as next month amid labor market concerns and flagged that higher tariffs might squeeze consumers’ purchasing power, which could weaken spending. Furthermore, Collins said she expects inflation to continue rising through the end of the year before resuming a decline in 2026, according to a Wall Street Journal article that noted divisions grow inside the Fed ahead of the September rate cut decision and cited Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) opposing cuts due to rising inflation.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the September FOMC meeting is a live meeting and the Fed has been getting mixed messages on the economy, while he added that the most recent inflation data wasn’t great and the Fed still has time to take in more data. Goolsbee responded he doesn’t want to get his hands tied, when asked about a September rate cut, as well as commented that a rise in services inflation is a dangerous data point and reacting to a stagflation shock is very difficult. Furthermore, he said central bank independence is critically important, and that tariff increases don’t seem close to being done and risk persistent inflation.
Trade/Tariffs
- Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October, “dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit”; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by Reuters.
- South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho is expected to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio as early as today before the Trump summit with South Korea President Lee, according to Yonhap. South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review. In talks about nuclear power cooperation with the US.
- South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole and following the subdued handover from Wall St, where participants digested a slew of data and mostly hawkish Fed comments. ASX 200 marginally declined with price action choppy around the 9,000 focal point as participants continue to mull over the latest earnings releases. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with participants indecisive after recent yen weakness and somewhat mixed Japanese inflation data, which mostly matched estimates, aside from the slightly hotter-than-expected Core CPI reading. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with strength seen following recent earnings releases and with chipmakers supported after Beijing summoned Chinese tech companies to discuss their use of NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and encourage them to use more homegrown options, while NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases.
Top Asian News
- Japan 2026 budget requests to total around JPY 120tln, according to Kyodo.
- China’s Industry Ministry said it has issued interim measures for controlling and managing rare earth mining, smelting, and separation.
- PBoC seeks feedback on draft regulations for interbank FX market.
European stocks (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are little changed, albeit with a positive bias amid a lack of newsflow into Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the European afternoon. A bout of risk aversion, with no specific fundamental driver, was seen pre-cash open. Nonetheless, this did little to inflict sustained pressure on European bourses, which have been edging higher since the lacklustre open. European sectors opened mostly in the red after a quiet open. However, positivity has since dominated across the board as sentiment improved. Chemicals sits at the top, led by Akzo Nobel (+5%), after the FT reported that Activist Cevian acquired a more than 3% (EUR 300ln) stake in the company. Banks also underperform, though they are off their worst levels; this comes after Bloomberg reported that Poland is planning to increase corporate income tax for banks, proposing to increase the tax to 30% from 19%.
Top European News
- German Economy Minister said Q2 GDP figures show “urgent need for action”; Further and courageous reforms are unavoidable to make the German economy competitive.
FX
- DXY is firmer on Friday in the run-up to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT, which is expected to see a text release. Attention will focus on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. DXY trades in a 98.58-98.83 intraday range after finding support at the 50 DMA (at 98.09 today) earlier in the week. Powell aside, there will be commentary from Collins and Hammack.
- Softer in tandem with the firmer Dollar. EUR remains subdued by the diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, “we will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On the data front, German GDP for Q2 was revised lower across the board, albeit this prompted little EUR move at the time, with eyes turning to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00 BST for a dollar-induced impulse. EUR/USD currently sits in a 1.1583-1.1668 range.
- Choppy trade overall in which USD/JPY initially extended on Thursday’s advances overnight after returning to the 148.00 territory and was unfazed by the Japanese inflation data, in which Core CPI printed firmer-than-expected. Inflows into the JPY were seen around 15 minutes before the European equity cash open, in tandem with some broader risk aversion despite a lack of fresh catalysts at the time, though it was short-lived. USD/JPY trades in a 148.27-148.77 parameter.
- Not much in the way of Sterling-specific catalysts nor newsflow, with Cable moving in tandem with the Dollar ahead of a long weekend (UK bank holiday on Monday).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1321 vs exp. 7.1871 (Prev. 7.1287).
Fixed Income
- USTs are flat and have been trading in a very narrow 111-16 to 111-20 range, as traders await an appearance from Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. On that, focus will be on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. In terms of price action, currently contained in a minuscule 4 tick range, and within the confines made in the prior session.
- Bunds are also flat/incrementally firmer and trade in a very narrow 128.94 to 129.12 range; the trough today was made in the moments after the release of German GDP revisions, which were lower than the prelim; Q/Q revised down to 0.2% (prev. 0.4%) whilst the Y/Y metric declined 0.3% (prev. no growth).
- Gilts are on the back foot today and underperforming vs peers, albeit within narrow ranges. Nothing really fresh driving things at the moment for UK paper, but perhaps as fiscal-related fears resurge into the Autumn Budget. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has been knocking on the door of the 4.75% mark; traders tout levels above 4.80% as the “danger zone” for Chancellor Reeve’s and her “black hole”.
Commodities
- Modest gains across the crude complex despite the firmer Dollar and alongside the choppy mood across the stock market, with equity bourses swinging from modest losses to mild gains. Upside in the crude complex comes amid diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, “We will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On that note, the Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border. Deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days, according to reports. WTI currently resides in a 62.05-62.68/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.44-67.95/bbl range.
- Mostly subdued trade across precious metals amid the firmer Dollar as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT which is expected to see a text release. Spot gold trades under its 50 DMA (3,346.01) in a USD 3,325.38-3,340.14/oz range.
- Mixed within narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent drivers this morning ahead of risk events. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,714.05-9,781.00/t range.
- Hungary and Slovakia call on European Commission to guarantee energy supply security. As a consequence, deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days.
- Germany said there is no impact on German energy supply security from the Druzhba pipeline disruption.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said he will have a joint phone call with French, British and German counterparts on Friday to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions, according to IRNA.
- “Israeli Defence Minister: We have approved the army’s plans to eliminate Hamas and evacuate the population in Gaza”, according to Al Arabiya.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border.
- North Korean leader Kim lauded military officers who participated in overseas military operations as heroes and said soldiers at Kursk proved the might of the North Korean military in the world’s eyes, according to KCNA.
- Russia conducts naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, according to the defence ministry.
Geopolitics: Other
- China condemned US military build-up off Venezuela coast as foreign interference in regional affairs, according to Fox News. China’s Concord Resources plans to invest over USD 1bln in two oilfields in Venezuela, according to Reuters sources, and plans to produce 60k BPD by end-2026.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing scheduled
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The theme of “good news is bad news” returned to markets yesterday following a strong US PMI release. This led investors to dial back expectations of Fed rate cuts, which sent 10yr Treasury yields +3.7bps higher and left the S&P 500 (-0.40%) posting a 5th consecutive decline for the first time since early January. That leaves investors in a jittery mood going into the Jackson Hole Symposium that kicks off in full today withFed Chair Powell making a speech at 10am EST (3pm LDN) on the US “Economic outlook and framework review”.
Starting with the data, the flash US PMIs for August exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing index (53.3 vs 49.7 expected) rebounding to its highest level since May 2022, while services (55.4 vs 54.2 exp, 55.7 prev.) was resilient at strong levels. The details were also on the hawkish side, with the employment component edging up to its highest since January and the composite output price index rising to 59.3, its highest in three years. Other data was a bit more mixed, with existing home sales rising in July (+4.01m vs +3.92m exp.) but initial and continuing jobless claims moving higher, with initial claims up to +235k in the week ending August 16 (+225k exp).
With the PMIs painting a picture of a resilient US economy with ongoing inflationary risks, markets lowered the probability of a rate cut in September to 72%, its lowest since the weak jobs report on August 1 and down from being fully priced after last week’s CPI print. Bonds also fell, with yields on the 2yr (+4.5bps to 3.79%) and 10yr (+3.7bps to 4.33%) Treasuries moving higher. Equities similarly saw a soft day, with the S&P 500 down -0.40% and the Mag-7 (-0.54%) also posting a 5th consecutive decline. Meta fell -1.15% after it reported a freeze in AI hiring. Unlike the previous couple of sessions the decline was a broad-based one, with more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 down on the day, led by the defensive utilities (-0.71%) and consumer staples (-1.18%) sectors. The slump in the latter was mostly due to Walmart (-4.49%), which hit a rare miss in its earnings yesterday amid higher insurance claims and restructuring costs.
The paring back of rate cut expectations also came amid a pretty patient tone from current Fed officials. Cleveland President Fed Hammack said that the bank’s biggest concern is staying “laser-focused” on inflation, adding that she would not support a rate cut if the meeting was tomorrow. Kansas Fed President Schmid suggested that inflation risks were marginally higher than risks to the labour market, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the last inflation print a “dangerous data point” though he saw the upcoming September meeting as a live one. These comments contrasted with those made by former St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who called for 100bps of rate cuts by the end of this yearstarting with a cut in September. In an interview with Fox Business,Bullard also confirmed that he’d been in contact with Treasury Secretary Bessent about his candidacy for the Fed Chair role.
We’ll learn more on the Fed’s thinking today at Jackson Hole, with all eyes on Powell’s speech at 10am EST. The last time we heard Powell speak at the July FOMC, the Chair was notably hawkish on the labour market, but in light of the July downward payroll revision, we expect a somewhat different tone today. Investors will be keenly watching whether Powell places more emphasis on weaker payrolls versus more stable measures of labour market slack and still solid activity and inflation data. In case you missed it, see our US economists’ preview of what to expect from Jackson Hole here. The topic of Fed independence will also linger over Jackson Hole, with DoJ official Ed Martin yesterday urging Chair Powell to remove Governor Lisa Cook from the board and saying that he intended to investigate her over allegations of mortgage fraud that surfaced on Wednesday.
Turning to Europe, we also got better-than-anticipated composite PMI prints in the Euro area (51.1 vs 50.6 exp, 50.9 prev), with both France (49.8 vs 48.5 exp) and Germany (50.9 vs 50.2 exp) moving higher, as well as in the UK (53.6 vs 51.8 exp). In the euro area the improvement was led by the manufacturing sector, but in the UK it was due to a jump in the services PMI to a 12-month high of 53.6. These were the first PMI prints after the July EU-US trade deal so signs of improved manufacturing activity will be welcome, though tariff volatility could distort the PMIs’ accuracy. In any case, the data led European sovereign bonds to reverse the previous day’s rally, with 10yr gilt (+5.7bps to 4.73%) leading the rise in yields. 10yr OATs (+4.9bps) and bunds (+3.9bps) also sold off, as pricing of ECB rate cuts this year ticked down by -3.9bps to just 9bps.
Despite those positive readings, European stocks saw declines for much of the day, though the Stoxx 600 was back to unchanged by the close and a late rally helped the FTSE 100 (+0.23%) to a new all-time high. The DAX (+0.07%) and FTSE MIB (+0.35%) also advanced, but the CAC (-0.44%) fell back. Healthcare stocks (+0.43%) outperformed within the Stoxx 600 as a joint EU-US statement formalising their July trade deal confirmed that tariffs on pharmaceuticals, chips and lumber will not exceed 15%. The statement also outlined that European cars will face a 15% tariff (down from 27.5% currently) if the EU eliminates tariffs on US industrial goods, and confirmed exemptions for some goods including aircraft and generic drugs.
European markets weren’t helped by waning optimism on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov accused the US and Europe of undermining progress made at the Trump-Putin Alaska Summit and suggested that security guarantees for Ukraine should be based on the 2022 Istanbul talks. At the time, Russia had proposed an arrangement that would give Moscow a de facto veto over intervention in Ukraine, which is clearly unacceptable to Kyiv. With Lavrov also deflecting on the proposed Putin-Zelenskiy meeting, Ukrainian bonds fell back to levels seen just over a week ago before the Trump-Putin summit. Meanwhile, Rheinmetall rose +3.27%, erasing most of its -5.5% decline over the previous two days. And oil prices advanced, with Brent crude up +1.24% to $67.67/bbl as White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said he expected the additional 25% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil to come into force as scheduled on August 27.
Asian equity markets are trading mostly higher this morning despite the weak handover from Wall Street. The KOSPI (+0.69%) is enjoying a bright start, building on the previous session’s gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.33%), the CSI (+1.18%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) are also all decently higher. Sectorally, the Hang Seng Tech index (+1.75%) is leading the way, perhaps benefitting from a report by The Information tech news outlet that Nvidia has told component suppliers to stop production related to its H20 chip that’s been designed specifically for the Chinese market. Nvidia’s shares fell by close to 2% in alternative trading on the news, and NASDAQ futures (-0.10%) are marginally trailing those on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) as a result.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.13%) is down marginally as Japan’s consumer inflation saw a slight moderation but stayed well above the BOJ’s 2% target in July. Headline CPI eased from 3.3% to 3.1% yoy, in line with expectations, but the core (ex fresh food) CPI was a touch above expectations of (+3.1% vs +3.0% exp). The core-core CPI reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices remained steady at +3.4% y/y in July, suggesting still sticky underlying inflation momentum. Money markets are pricing a 53% chance of a rate hike from the BoJ over the next two meetings, inching a little higher overnight, while 10yr JGB yields are +0.5bps higher at 1.62%, a new post-2008 high.
To the day ahead now, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with a slew of other central bank comments expected from the event. Data releases include the UK’s July retail sales, France’s August business confidence, July retail sales, and Canada’s June retail sales.
2b/ European opening report
DXY & equity futures firmer, Fixed income lacklustre into Powell – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 06:07 AM
- Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October, “dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit”; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by Reuters
- European bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.
- DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.
- Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October, “dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit”; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by Reuters.
- South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho is expected to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio as early as today before the Trump summit with South Korea President Lee, according to Yonhap. South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review. In talks about nuclear power cooperation with the US.
- South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European stocks (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are little changed, albeit with a positive bias amid a lack of newsflow into Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the European afternoon. A bout of risk aversion, with no specific fundamental driver, was seen pre-cash open. Nonetheless, this did little to inflict sustained pressure on European bourses, which have been edging higher since the lacklustre open.
- European sectors opened mostly in the red after a quiet open. However, positivity has since dominated across the board as sentiment improved. Chemicals sits at the top, led by Akzo Nobel (+5%), after the FT reported that Activist Cevian acquired a more than 3% (EUR 300ln) stake in the company. Banks also underperform, though they are off their worst levels; this comes after Bloomberg reported that Poland is planning to increase corporate income tax for banks, proposing to increase the tax to 30% from 19%.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.4%) have been moving in tandem with those across the Atlantic. RTY outperforms as investors continue optimism about the YTD underperforming small-cap index.
- UBS Global Wealth Management forecasts 2025 Eurozone earnings growth to contract by 3% (prev. 0%).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is firmer on Friday in the run-up to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT, which is expected to see a text release. Attention will focus on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. DXY trades in a 98.58-98.83 intraday range after finding support at the 50 DMA (at 98.09 today) earlier in the week. Powell aside, there will be commentary from Collins and Hammack.
- Softer in tandem with the firmer Dollar. EUR remains subdued by the diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, “we will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On the data front, German GDP for Q2 was revised lower across the board, albeit this prompted little EUR move at the time, with eyes turning to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00 BST for a dollar-induced impulse. EUR/USD currently sits in a 1.1583-1.1668 range.
- Choppy trade overall in which USD/JPY initially extended on Thursday’s advances overnight after returning to the 148.00 territory and was unfazed by the Japanese inflation data, in which Core CPI printed firmer-than-expected. Inflows into the JPY were seen around 15 minutes before the European equity cash open, in tandem with some broader risk aversion despite a lack of fresh catalysts at the time, though it was short-lived. USD/JPY trades in a 148.27-148.77 parameter.
- Not much in the way of Sterling-specific catalysts nor newsflow, with Cable moving in tandem with the Dollar ahead of a long weekend (UK bank holiday on Monday).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1321 vs exp. 7.1871 (Prev. 7.1287).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are flat and have been trading in a very narrow 111-16 to 111-20 range, as traders await an appearance from Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. On that, focus will be on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. In terms of price action, currently contained in a minuscule 4 tick range, and within the confines made in the prior session.
- Bunds are also flat/incrementally firmer and trade in a very narrow 128.94 to 129.12 range; the trough today was made in the moments after the release of German GDP revisions, which were lower than the prelim; Q/Q revised down to 0.2% (prev. 0.4%) whilst the Y/Y metric declined 0.3% (prev. no growth).
- Gilts are on the back foot today and underperforming vs peers, albeit within narrow ranges. Nothing really fresh driving things at the moment for UK paper, but perhaps as fiscal-related fears resurge into the Autumn Budget. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has been knocking on the door of the 4.75% mark; traders tout levels above 4.80% as the “danger zone” for Chancellor Reeve’s and her “black hole”.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Modest gains across the crude complex despite the firmer Dollar and alongside the choppy mood across the stock market, with equity bourses swinging from modest losses to mild gains. Upside in the crude complex comes amid diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, “We will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On that note, the Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border. Deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days, according to reports. WTI currently resides in a 62.05-62.68/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.44-67.95/bbl range.
- Mostly subdued trade across precious metals amid the firmer Dollar as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT which is expected to see a text release. Spot gold trades under its 50 DMA (3,346.01) in a USD 3,325.38-3,340.14/oz range.
- Mixed within narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent drivers this morning ahead of risk events. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,714.05-9,781.00/t range.
- Hungary and Slovakia call on European Commission to guarantee energy supply security. As a consequence, deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days.
- Germany said there is no impact on German energy supply security from the Druzhba pipeline disruption.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
DATA RECAP
- German GDP Detailed YY SA (Q2) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- German GDP Detailed QQ SA (Q2) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
- German GDP Detailed YY NSA (Q2) -0.2% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -17.0 vs. Exp. -20.0 (Prev. -19.0)
- Swedish Unemployment Rate SA (Jul) 8.9% vs. Exp. 8.6% (Prev. 8.3%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- German Economy Minister said Q2 GDP figures show “urgent need for action”; Further and courageous reforms are unavoidable to make the German economy competitive.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) signalled an openness for a rate cut as soon as next month amid labour market concerns and flagged that higher tariffs might squeeze consumers’ purchasing power, which could weaken spending. Furthermore, Collins said she expects inflation to continue rising through the end of the year before resuming a decline in 2026, according to a Wall Street Journal article that noted divisions grow inside the Fed ahead of the September rate cut decision and cited Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) opposing cuts due to rising inflation.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the September FOMC meeting is a live meeting and the Fed has been getting mixed messages on the economy, while he added that the most recent inflation data wasn’t great and the Fed still has time to take in more data. Goolsbee responded he doesn’t want to get his hands tied, when asked about a September rate cut, as well as commented that a rise in services inflation is a dangerous data point and reacting to a stagflation shock is very difficult. Furthermore, he said central bank independence is critically important, and that tariff increases don’t seem close to being done and risk persistent inflation.
- WSJ’s Timiraos wrote “Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured” and “The Fed unveiled a strategy five years ago for worries that the economy outgrew. Now, it will formally reset”. Fed officials are reportedly readying to quietly pull back from a signature policy innovation announced five years ago in which they focused on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices, with officials to abandon that approach as it is now seen as no longer relevant given the backdrop of high and more volatile inflation. Furthermore, Timiraos noted that Powell is expected to unveil the shift at Jackson Hole on Friday, although changes won’t impact near-term policy decisions and are instead part of the framework the Fed uses to interpret its mandate inflation and employment mandates.
- US President Trump said the US is leading the AI race and that AI is the hottest thing in decades.
- US President Trump’s administration reportedly considers a plan to reallocate USD 2bln in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals and aims to give Commerce Secretary Lutnick greater oversight of minerals financing decisions, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is pausing all issuances of worker visas for commercial truck drivers with immediate effect. It was separately reported that President Trump’s administration said it is reviewing all 55mln people with US visas for potential deportable violations, according to AP.
NOTABLE US STOCKS STORIES
- NVIDIA (NVDA) ordered a halt to H20 chip production after China’s directive against purchases, according to The Information. NVIDIA (NVDA) said in a statement sent to the Global Times on Friday: “We constantly manage our supply chain to address market conditions”, when asked about reports that NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases. NVIDIA (NVDA) said in a statement sent to the Global Times on Friday: “We constantly manage our supply chain to address market conditions”, when asked about reports that NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases
- Meta (META) is said to be hiring another key Apple (AAPL) AI executive, according to Bloomberg sources.
- Starbucks (SBUX) expects non-binding bids for its China business within two weeks, according to Reuters sources.
- Tesla (TSLA) plans to integrate DeepSeek and Dubao voice controls for its vehicles in China, according to Bloomberg.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said he will have a joint phone call with French, British and German counterparts on Friday to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions, according to IRNA.
- “Israeli Defence Minister: We have approved the army’s plans to eliminate Hamas and evacuate the population in Gaza”, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border.
- North Korean leader Kim lauded military officers who participated in overseas military operations as heroes and said soldiers at Kursk proved the might of the North Korean military in the world’s eyes, according to KCNA.
- Russia conducts naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, according to the defence ministry.
OTHER
- China condemned US military build-up off Venezuela coast as foreign interference in regional affairs, according to Fox News. China’s Concord Resources plans to invest over USD 1bln in two oilfields in Venezuela, according to Reuters sources, and plans to produce 60k BPD by end-2026.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is modestly firmer but sits just shy of the USD 113k mark.
- EU reportedly speeds up plans for a digital Euro after the US passed the stablecoin law last month, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole and following the subdued handover from Wall St, where participants digested a slew of data and mostly hawkish Fed comments.
- ASX 200 marginally declined with price action choppy around the 9,000 focal point as participants continue to mull over the latest earnings releases.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with participants indecisive after recent yen weakness and somewhat mixed Japanese inflation data, which mostly matched estimates, aside from the slightly hotter-than-expected Core CPI reading.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with strength seen following recent earnings releases and with chipmakers supported after Beijing summoned Chinese tech companies to discuss their use of NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and encourage them to use more homegrown options, while NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan 2026 budget requests to total around JPY 120tln, according to Kyodo.
- China’s Industry Ministry said it has issued interim measures for controlling and managing rare earth mining, smelting, and separation.
- PBoC seeks feedback on draft regulations for interbank FX market.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.3%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.3%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
- Chinese FDI (YTD) (Jul) -13.4% (Prev. -15.2%)
2c) Asian opening report
APAC stocks traded mixed amid broader cautiousness & DXY firm awaiting Powell comments – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 01:51 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole and following the subdued handover from Wall St, where participants digested a slew of data and mostly hawkish Fed comments.
- US President Trump said we will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war.
- Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October, “dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Tump at the summit”, according to Reuters sources.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell & BoE Governor Bailey.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately closed lower after a choppy session amid cautiousness ahead of Jackson Hole and after hawkish commentary, although the Russell 2000 outperformed, while sectors were predominantly lower with underperformance in Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary after retailer earnings in which Walmart missed on EPS and Coty (COTY) tumbled post-earnings.
- The highlights of the day were the US data releases and Fed speak, including a strong S&P Global Flash PMI report for the US which was accompanied by hawkish commentary within the report, while comments from Fed officials including Hammack, Schmid and to some extent Bostic, were hawkish on inflation and mostly pointed to a lack of urgency to cut rates.
- SPX -0.40% at 6,370, NDX -0.46% at 23,143, DJI -0.34% at 44,786, RUT +0.21% at 2,274.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October, “dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Tump at the summit”; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by Reuters.
- Canadian PM Carney spoke with US President Trump and the two discussed trade challenges and opportunities, while they agreed to reconvene shortly, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) signalled an openness for a rate cut as soon as next month amid labour market concerns and flagged that higher tariffs might squeeze consumers’ purchasing power, which could weaken spending. Furthermore, Collins said she expects inflation to continue rising through the end of the year before resuming a decline in 2026, according to a Wall Street Journal article that noted divisions grow inside the Fed ahead of the September rate cut decision and cited Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) opposing cuts due to rising inflation.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the September FOMC meeting is a live meeting and the Fed has been getting mixed messages on the economy, while he added that the most recent inflation data wasn’t great and the Fed still has time to take in more data. Goolsbee responded he doesn’t want to get his hands tied, when asked about a September rate cut, as well as commented that a rise in services inflation is a dangerous data point and reacting to a stagflation shock is very difficult. Furthermore, he said central bank independence is critically important, and that tariff increases don’t seem close to being done and risk persistent inflation.
- WSJ’s Timiraos wrote “Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured” and “The Fed unveiled a strategy five years ago for worries that the economy outgrew. Now, it will formally reset”. Fed officials are reportedly readying to quietly pull back from a signature policy innovation announced five years ago in which they focused on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices, with officials to abandon that approach as it is now seen as no longer relevant given the backdrop of high and more volatile inflation. Furthermore, Timiraos noted that Powell is expected to unveil the shift at Jackson Hole on Friday, although changes won’t impact near-term policy decisions and are instead part of the framework the Fed uses to interpret its mandate inflation and employment mandates.
- DoJ official urged Fed Chair Powell to remove Fed Governor Cook, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Trump said the US is leading the AI race and that AI is the hottest thing in decades.
- US President Trump’s administration reportedly considers a plan to reallocate USD 2bln in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals and aims to give Commerce Secretary Lutnick greater oversight of minerals financing decisions, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is pausing all issuances of worker visas for commercial truck drivers with immediate effect. It was separately reported that President Trump’s administration said it is reviewing all 55mln people with US visas for potential deportable violations, according to AP.
- California Senate passed a redistricting plan aimed at giving Democrats five more seats in the US House of Representatives, countering a similar Trump-backed move in Texas, while the redrawn map in California advanced to the state assembly and would ultimately require voter approval.
- Meta (META) is said to be hiring another key Apple (AAPL) AI executive, according to Bloomberg sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole and following the subdued handover from Wall St, where participants digested a slew of data and mostly hawkish Fed comments.
- ASX 200 marginally declined with price action choppy around the 9,000 focal point as participants continue to mull over the latest earnings releases.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with participants indecisive after recent yen weakness and somewhat mixed Japanese inflation data, which mostly matched estimates, aside from the slightly hotter-than-expected Core CPI reading.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with strength seen following recent earnings releases and with chipmakers supported after Beijing summoned Chinese tech companies to discuss their use of NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and encourage them to use more homegrown options, while NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases.
- US equity futures lacked direction as participants await policy clues from Fed Chair Powell’s looming speech.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY remained firm and held on to recent gains after strong PMI data stateside which included hawkish commentary within the report, while there was also recent rhetoric from Fed officials including Hammack and Schmid who were both hawkish on inflation and suggested a lack of urgency to cut rates. Furthermore, Goolsbee noted the September FOMC meeting is a live meeting, but responded that he didn’t want to get his hands tied when asked about a September rate cut, while all eyes now turn to Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- EUR/USD breached beneath the prior day’s trough to a sub-1.1600 level after giving up ground to the recent dollar strength, while participants also look ahead to comments from ECB President Lagarde who will participate in a panel discussion with BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda on Saturday at Jackson Hole.
- GBP/USD was subdued and tested the 1.3400 level to the downside, after recent tailwinds from strong UK Services and Composite PMI data proved to be short-lived.
- USD/JPY extended on yesterday’s advances after returning to the 148.00 territory and was unfazed by the Japanese inflation data in which Core CPI printed firmer-than-expected.
- Antipodeans traded sideways amid a lack of pertinent data and with markets tentative as all focus turns to Fed Chair Powell.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1321 vs exp. 7.1871 (Prev. 7.1287).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures attempted to nurse losses after retreating in the aftermath of strong US PMI data and hawkish Fed comments ahead of Powell’s highly-awaited speech.
- Bund futures rebounded off the prior day’s lows after finding support near the 129.00 level but with the recovery limited by a lack of pertinent drivers.
- 10yr JGB futures recouped early losses and returned to flat territory amid the flimsy risk appetite in Tokyo, but with demand contained following the latest inflation data from Japan which mostly printed in line with estimates aside from the firmer-than-expected Core CPI reading.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures took a breather following the two-way price action and an intraday rebound seen yesterday amid pessimism regarding a Russia and Ukraine deal.
- Spot gold softened amid a firmer dollar, with price action contained as markets await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
- Copper futures plateaued overnight following the prior day’s recovery which was facilitated by strong US Manufacturing PMI data, but with further upside capped amid some cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell’s key speech.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin mildly gained and returned to above the USD 113k level after rebounding from this month’s trough.
- EU reportedly speeds up plans for a digital Euro after the US passed the stablecoin law last month, according to FT.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US President Trump could raise a “sensitive” China-related topic in the upcoming summit with South Korean President Lee, according to an expert cited by Yonhap.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) ordered a halt to H20 chip production after China’s directive against purchases, according to The Information.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.3%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 3.1% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.3%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will begin Gaza ceasefire negotiations to end the war and release hostages.
- US President Trump’s administration has asked Israel to reduce “non-urgent” military action in Lebanon to bolster the Lebanese government’s decision to start the process of disarming Hezbollah, according to two sources with direct knowledge cited by Axios.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said he will have a joint phone call with French, British and German counterparts on Friday to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions, according to IRNA.
- United States imposed sanctions on ships and entities connected to Iran.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war.
- US President Trump said we will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine.
- North Korean leader Kim lauded military officers who participated in overseas military operations as heroes and said soldiers at Kursk proved the might of the North Korean military in the world’s eyes, according to KCNA.
OTHER
- China condemned US military build-up off Venezuela coast as foreign interference in regional affairs, according to Fox News.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -17.0 vs. Exp. -20.0 (Prev. -19.0)
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN/
The Risk Everyone’s Missing
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 20:17
Third time’s the charm?
Japanese 30 year yield flirting with huge levels again, and very few are talking about it at the moment.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Above it
Japanese 20 year broke above the dynamic formation. Only vacuum from here?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Jaws
Japan 10 year vs US 10 year gap getting rather wide.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Will VIX care?
Surging Japanese rates matter for global macro. The VIX has acted rather violently to most previous rises in Japanese longer term rates. Let’s see if the latest run up in rates gets VIX going…
Source: LSEG Workspace
The gold connection
Gold has moved in very close tandem with Japanese rates. The latest gap is becoming rather short term wide. Will the “everything hedge” start to care again?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Worried Edwards
Albert Edwards from June this year:
1. Investors are underestimating the global impact of Japan’s policy shift.
2. For decades, ultra-loose BoJ policy sent a wave of liquidity abroad, depressing global yields and inflating P/E ratios in sectors like U.S. tech.
3. That liquidity cycle is now reversing, but markets — especially U.S. equities — haven’t fully reacted.
4. Although the BoJ is only slowing QE tapering (not true QT), inflation’s return points to rising rates ahead.
5. Climbing JGB yields will likely put pressure on U.S. bonds and the equity sectors that thrived on low yields.
6. Japanese investors are already fleeing Bunds at the fastest pace in a decade — a warning sign of what’s to come.
Underestimated risk
On the tech connection. “…our hypothesis that valuations are vulnerable to a normalisation of the Japanese real bond yield will only be tested if/when the Japanese real bond yield rises meaningfully. On a medium-term horizon, this is a significant and underestimated risk….” (BCA, Dhaval Joshi, mid July)
Source: BCA
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
Suspending De Minimis Exemption Next Week Will Cause “Ripple Effect” Across Global Postal Supply Lines
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 08:00 AM
President Trump’s elimination of the de minimis duty-free rule at the end of next week is set to fuel a global postal bottleneck, more specifically, with U.S. inbound packages valued at or over $100 likely facing delays as shippers scramble to figure out how the tariff collection process will work.
In just one week, President Trump’s executive order will end duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports (items valued less than $800), closing a loophole long exploited by China to flood the U.S. with low-cost junk. The administration stated in late July that the primary goal is to end the flow of deadly synthetic opioids hidden within these small packages. Starting next week, all foreign shipments, except verified gifts under $100, will face new duties.
Under the new rules, there is quite a bit of confusion about how the new duties will be collected and how to submit the required data.
A report from Bloomberg lists a number of U.S. inbound postal supply lines beginning to experience bottlenecks because of the tariff collection confusion:
- Asia: Korea Post and SingPost are halting standard parcel services, while Japan warns of delays.
- Europe: Norway, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, and the UK are suspending or limiting services; Deutsche Post/DHL halted business parcels via postal networks.
- Australia: Transit shipments through Australia to the U.S. are paused, though direct U.S. deliveries remain.
Multinational logistics company DHL cited confusion over how duties will be collected in a new letter to customers on Friday. The shipper remains operational.
“Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out,” DHL stated in the letter.
It’s not just DHL; other shippers, including FedEx and UPS, are figuring out how to collect the new tariff fee. Online sellers are also scrambling to comply.
Millions of low-value packages per day will lose their duty-free treatment by the end of next week and be subject to standard tariff rates or temporary flat fees of $80 to $200 per item for six months.
For more details on rates. Customs and Border Protection outlined last week in a bulletin how the flat fees would be calculated, corresponding to the countries’ tariff rates.
“It is a real concern that the dominoes are falling and there will be a ripple effect where more and more posts announce that they will be suspending packages to the US,” warned Kate Muth, executive director of the International Mailers Advisory Group, which represents the U.S. international mailing and shipping industry, quoted by Bloomberg.
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY// POLAND
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu Authorizes New Talks To Free All Hostages On ‘Acceptable’ Terms
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 09:20 PM
Just as President Trump has of late highlighted the severe starvation crisis impacting Gaza’s children and vast majority of civilians, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday has confirmed that he has instructed negotiations to begin for the release of all remaining hostages.
He declared that he wants an end to the war in Gaza on terms “acceptable to Israel”. Still, his expanded ground operation will proceed, and while addressing Israeli troops he made clear that his cabinet approved plans for a large-scale assault on Gaza City.
His dispatching a negotiating team once again (to an as yet undetermined location – probably Doha) appears in immediate response to Hamas reportedly agreeing to a proposal drawn up by Qatari and Egyptian mediators for a 60-day ceasefire.
Also, huge protests against Netanyahu’s policies have persisted in Tel Aviv and other cities have only grown over the past days and week.
Netanyahu did not yet accept the deal, and is at least ready to ‘talk’ about it – but this pattern of futile engagements in Qatar or Egypt has happened plenty of times before.
“I have come to approve the IDF’s (Israel Defense Forces) plans to take control of Gaza City and defeat Hamas,” Netanyahu said.
“These two matters – defeating Hamas and releasing all our hostages – go hand in hand,” Netanyahu added, without disclosing any further details.
He’s long come under fire domestically, and from the political opposition, for prioritizing a military solution ahead of the return of the hostages.
Meanwhile, Israel and Mideast regional sources are reporting on a “classified Israeli military database shows the vast majority of Palestinians killed in Gaza are civilians, according to a joint investigation by The Guardian, +972 Magazine, and Local Call.” This figure is put at 83% of the war dead as being civilians.
“Figures reviewed by the outlets revealed on Thursday indicate that, as of May 2025 – 19 months into Israel’s war on Gaza – Israeli military intelligence had listed 8,900 fighters from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) as confirmed or ‘probably’ dead,” according to the fresh reporting.
END
ICC/USA/ISRAEL
Trump Hits International Criminal Court With 2nd Round Of Sanctions
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 07:40 PM
The Trump administration has expanded its punitive measures against the International Criminal Court (ICC) for its going after Israel, on Wednesday imposing sanctions on two judges and two prosecutors from the ICC. This is also based on the court’s past decision to investigate US officials over alleged war crimes committed by American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the The Hague-based court a “national security threat” and accused it of being used for “lawfare” against the US and Israel – at a moment a warrant for the arrest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still active.
The sanctioned judges and deputy prosecutors have been identified as Nicolas Yann Guillou of France, Nazhat Shameem Khan of Fiji, Mame Mandiaye Niang of Senegal, and Kimberly Prost of Canada – as named by the Treasury and State Department.
The list of people have all have been involved in ICC cases related to the US or Israel – but Washington says they’ve been involved in the politicization and overreach represented in the court’s recent actions.
“United States has been clear and steadfast in our opposition to the ICC’s politicization, abuse of power, disregard for our national sovereignty, and illegitimate judicial overreach,” Rubio stated.
This is the second wave of sanctions in only less than three months – with the first involving action against four additional judges.
In reaction, the court condemned the new US sanctions, saying “These sanctions are a flagrant attack against the independence of an impartial judicial institution which operates under the mandate from 125 States Parties from all regions.”
“They constitute also an affront against the Court’s States Parties, the rules-based international order and, above all, millions of innocent victims across the world,” it continued.
Additionally she statement published to the ICC website said, “The Court calls upon States Parties and all those who share the values of humanity and the rule of law to provide firm and consistent support to the Court and its work carried out in the sole interest of victims of international crimes.”
Trump intensified the effort shortly after resuming office in January 2025. Within days, he issued an executive order warning that sanctions would be imposed on anyone participating in ICC investigations concerning alleged war crimes by the US or Israel.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/USA
Taxpayers On Hook For $3.5 Billion To Replenish Munitions US Used Defending Israel
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Taxpayers are yet again on the hook for America’s supposed “closest Middle East ally” as the Pentagon is planning to allocate at least $3.5 billion to restock weapons used in defense of Israel.
A Bloomberg report issued this week has reviewed Department of Defense budget documents prepared through mid-May. Emergency expenditures are highlighted which include US combat operations “executed at the request of or in coordination with Israel for the defense of Israeli territory, personnel or assets during attacks by Iran” or its proxies.
The largest single portion of the funding is $1 billion that is earmarked for replenishing Standard Missile interceptors, specifically the SM-3 IB Threat Upgrade models made by Raytheon and deployed by US Navy ships to intercept ballistic missiles.
Each of these big missiles are estimated to be between $9 million and $12 million, and these were used in the initial April 2024 flare-up and brief round of fighting between Israel and Iran.
The US assisted Israel following the Netanyahu government’s airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus – which was the first such deliberate attack by a sovereign government on a foreign embassy in history (the lone precedent being the Chinese embassy strike in Belgrade in 1999, which the US apologized for as an ‘accident’).
The second-largest funding request in the documents is $204 million to restock THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) interceptors, produced by Lockheed Martin at a price tag of about $13 million each.
All of this will be pushed through despite recent polls showing public support for Israel being at a recent all-time low. The American public is also generally war-weary, given the now years-long conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and the fact that Washington has sunk billions into supporting one side of each war.
The American Right has also begun to shift, with notable figures like Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene now actively pushing to cut all funds to Israel, being the first Republican to ever label what Israel is doing “genocide”.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Continuing to let Hamas terrorists flee from their Gaza positions is no longer an option – analysis
The IDF’s plans to invade Gaza City are not about reservist numbers, but whether the IDF can prevent Hamas from fleeing again, hidden among civilians.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir visits troops in Gaza, planning for Gaza City invasion, August 21, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAUGUST 21, 2025 20:14Updated: AUGUST 21, 2025 21:36
The big headlines regarding the IDF’s potential Gaza City invasion – might there still be a new ceasefire deal right before or after it starts? – focused on the number of reservists and mandatory service soldiers who will be involved.
Five full invading divisions means somewhere between 25,000 and 50,000 soldiers actively invading, similar to at the start of the war, and the 110,000 to 130,000 potential reservists involved also echoed the early war highs.
But after 22 months, these numbers – strategically speaking – if not irrelevant, are not the main issue anymore.
They will have an intense impact on the Israeli population and may continue existing problems with overuse of the reservists and with risking the lives of some sectors of Israel in the military as the haredi sector continues to resist being drafted.
But there are bigger issues at stake.
All that really matters now is whether the IDF puts into motion plans and tactics to prevent Hamas forces from fleeing Gaza City with the rest of the one million civilians who would flee.
This is one of the main stories of the war.
The IDF is worried about: 1) Israeli soldiers being killed by Hamas; 2) Israeli hostages being killed by Hamas; and 3) Palestinian civilians being killed by Israeli soldiers.
To avoid these three problems, it just lets everyone – including Hamas – flee any area it invades.
This is why since March, the IDF has only killed 2,100 Hamas fighters, according to Wednesday’s update by the military.
That is an average of about 350 per month, compared with the early months of the war when the IDF was killing thousands of Hamas terrorists per month.
Once Hamas figured out it could just keep moving anytime the IDF moved the Palestinian civilian population first, it became very difficult to target large groups of Hamas forces.
The IDF made a very big deal recently when it defeated the Hamas “battalion” in Beit Hanun – a grand total of about 30 terrorists. (Earlier in the war, a battalion usually meant about 1,000 Hamas fighters.)
This shows how hard it has been for the IDF to find Hamas fighters concealed within the local Gaza population.
So, what could the IDF do differently?
It could rush the infantry into parts of Gaza City without starting off the attack with massive bombing and artillery fire first – to try to catch Hamas fighters off guard before they can flee.
This would entail more risk to Israeli soldiers on the front line confronting Hamas attackers, but that is exactly what Israel should be hoping for.
IDF could surround Gaza City, slowly evacuating residents to root out Hamas terrorists
It could surround Gaza City and slowly evacuate Palestinians a few dozen at a time, inspecting every evacuee to reduce the chances of Hamas fighters being able to flee camouflaged into a crowd.
This would make the operation much slower and also might expose IDF soldiers to more attacks, but it would be less dangerous to Palestinian civilians than sending IDF forces in before a mass evacuation.
The difference can be analyzed by looking at the results of the IDF’s takeover of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City in November 2023 and then again in March 2024.
In November 2023, not a shot was fired inside the hospital, as the IDF allowed thousands of Palestinians to evacuate en masse without checking for Hamas fighters fleeing among them. No one was harmed from either side, and what the IDF accomplished for the most part was taking over the area and seizing Hamas weapons, communications, and intelligence-gathering equipment.
This is also most of what the IDF has been doing for the last six months.
In contrast, in March 2024, the IDF surprised Hamas by first surrounding the hospital and then sending in an invasion force.
There was significant fighting, and hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters were killed and hundreds more arrested.
The hospital also sustained far more damage, and there was more harm to Palestinian civilians and to IDF soldiers.
But it actually impacted Hamas’s forces, including senior commanders.
All signs are that the IDF and the cabinet will make the same mistake this time that they have made with other incursions, letting Hamas escape.
But if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to walk away from another hostage deal to try to deal a deeper blow to Hamas, then continuing to let their fighters flee is not an option.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
Delaying Gaza City invasion, agreeing to ceasefire, would double IDF death toll, expert says
Even if the Americans say publicly that they support a comprehensive deal, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror questions what that would exactly entail.
IDF soldiers operating in Beit Hanun.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)By103FMAUGUST 21, 2025 14:22Updated: AUGUST 21, 2025 15:01
Delaying the planned IDF invasion of Gaza City, or agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire, would significantly inflate the IDF’s death toll during the next part of the operation, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, former head of Israel’s National Security Council, said in an interview with Geula Even Saar and Nissim Mishal on 103FM on Wednesday.
He made the comments referring to a military assessment that stated that an operation in Gaza City could cost the lives about one hundred soldiers.
“If we go into Gaza now, the price is 100 killed; if we wait another 60 days, the price will be 200. Hamas will have more time to prepare itself,” he said, emphasizing Israel’s contingency on immediate action.
He also discussed how Israel would decide its next steps in Gaza, saying the key to understanding where Israel is headed in terms of a hostage deal or further military escalation lies in Washington.
“I have seen that negotiations are being conducted with both the Egyptians and the Qataris,” Amidror noted. “What matters greatly is the Americans’ position. If the Americans quietly tell us, ‘drop everything,’ move now on Gaza, that is one thing. Or they tell us, ‘let’s go now for a partial deal, perhaps in these 60 days we can achieve something.’”
US position on hostage deal vague, hard to plan around
Even if the Americans say publicly that they support a comprehensive deal, Amidror questioned what that would exactly entail.
“The question is when the comprehensive deal would be, is it now, or are you saying that you hope that at the end of the 60 days of a partial deal, we will move to a comprehensive deal?” he said.
Amidror continued: “You come to Hamas and say, either you disarm, or we go to a partial deal, which will guarantee that by the end, this will happen. Since we lack a great deal of information, we do not know.”
“For once, there are no leaks,” he said.
He emphasized the importance of understanding the American position, saying, “You are missing an important piece of information, which is, what are the Americans saying? They are speaking ambiguously that they support a comprehensive deal, but does it go through a war in Gaza City, or does it go through a stage in the deal?”
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIAN VS UKRAINE
Trump Laments Stalled Ukraine Peace Talks While Simultaneously Urging New Attacks On Russia
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 11:25 AM
Now, merely a week out from when Presidents Trump and Putin met in Alaska, the White House’s admirable peace efforts seem to be unraveling and even hopelessly stalled. Many independent-minded analysts had from the very start said that this conflict will ultimately be settled on the battlefield. The Wall Street Journal too seems to be coming around to this view:
On Monday, President Trump boasted about quickly brokering peace to end the bloody Ukraine conflict. By Thursday, he was saying that Kyiv had no chance of winning the war without new attacks on Russia.
“It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense,” Trump posted on social media. “Interesting times ahead!!!”
His turnaround underscored the fading optimism about Trump’s latest push to end the war.
Indeed this is another example of the West trying to have its cake and eat it too, as Trump strongly hints that Ukraine must take the offensive while simultaneously lamenting that Putin and Zelensky are not getting together in a hoped-for summit.
Trump is essentially saying Ukraine cannot win the war unless it launches attacks on Russia.
“It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country,” Trump had explained further in his Truth Social statement.
The WSJ in its analysis then turns to one of the big factors which is sure to stymie talks from Moscow’s point of view: security guarantees for Ukraine:
U.S. and European officials are still negotiating the makeup of a peacekeeping force that would aim to deter future Russian attacks against Ukraine if a peace deal was reached. Even that idea was quickly rebuffed by the Kremlin and raised questions about Trump’s willingness to commit to a major role for the U.S. military.
With much of his plans still unrealized, Trump is confronted with the uncertainties that have dogged him for the past seven months: How willing is he to pressure Putin, and how far is he willing to go in backing Zelensky?
As we highlighted before, the ‘logic’ of this is contradictory and will lead nowhere. Why would Russia agree to end its military operations if in the end NATO-like ‘security guarantees’ are to be given to Ukraine as a reward?...to quote Moon of Alabama.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reminded the US and its Western allies on Thursday that President Putin has “repeatedly said that he is ready to meet, including with Zelensky, if there is understanding that all issues that require consideration at the highest level have been worked out thoroughly” by experts and ministers.
To translate, Putin will only sit down with Zelensky if they are already at the goal line of having worked out a permanent peace deal. This has been reiterated in a Friday foreign ministry statement:
LAVROV: PUTIN-ZELENSKY MEETING NOT PLANNED YET — KREMLIN SAYS SUMMIT POSSIBLE ONLY AFTER AGENDA IS AGREED
And as RT outlines further, “Moscow maintains that any lasting settlement must eliminate the root causes of the conflict, address Russia’s security concerns, and recognize current territorial realities, including the status of Crimea and the four former Ukrainian regions that voted to join Russia in 2022.” This means there must be the permanent neutrality of Ukraine, the formal ceding of territories, and that the Russian neighbor cease being militarized by NATO.
Reuters also describes, “Vladimir Putin is demanding that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country, three sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking told Reuters.”
And per Bloomberg: “A full ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine remains unlikely this year, with even the prospect of a partial truce fading, according to JPMorgan emerging market and policy strategists.”
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES;
The Middle East: The Decisive Battleground Of WW3
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
It’s important to recognize that world orders are nothing new.
World orders have long been the frameworks through which major global powers set the rules of the game. They define the structure of international political relations.
Thinking in terms of world orders requires zooming out entirely—taking the geopolitical view from 40,000 feet.
On a smaller scale, it’s similar to how the most powerful criminal organizations in a city—such as mafias and street gangs—form agreements to divide their activities and territories among themselves.
Eventually, though, these arrangements always break down, leading to violent power struggles until a new agreement is reached, reflecting the shifting balance of power.
A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries, world orders, and world wars.
You can think of world orders as epochs—distinct historical periods marked by evolving global power structures.
Peace of Westphalia (1648 to 1803): This agreement ended the Thirty Years’ War and established a framework for European international relations for over two centuries by maintaining a balance of power among major European states. It involved the Holy Roman Empire, Spain, France, Sweden, the Dutch Republic, and various German territories. This world order persisted until the Napoleonic Wars disrupted the balance, necessitating a new international arrangement.
Congress of Vienna (1814 to 1914): The military defeat of Napoleon I led to this world order, which cemented Britain as the dominant global power. The Congress of Vienna set the foundation for European politics until the onset of World War 1 in 1914.
Treaty of Versailles (1919 to 1939): The victors of World War 1 established this world order, introducing institutions like the League of Nations. However, it collapsed when Germany, Italy, and Japan sought to overturn it and impose their own world order during World War 2.
The Current US-Led World Order (1945 to Today): The victors of World War 2 created the current world order with the US as its leader. This system includes institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—all headquartered in the US. This world order has largely been unipolar, with the US exerting significant influence over international policies and decision-making.
World War 3
While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway.
Let me explain…
Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.
However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.
That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.
World War 3 is unlikely to be a total war between the world’s largest powers, like the previous world wars.
Instead, the conflict is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological warfare, deniable sabotage, and information warfare.
In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, though most fail to recognize it.
Russia, China, and their allies are seeking to reshape the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2.
While they resent US dominance, both Russia and China hold a position—albeit a subordinate one—within the current system. They have permanent seats on the UN Security Council and are members of key international institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO.
Unlike Germany and Japan in World War 2, Russia and China do not appear intent on completely overturning the current world order. Doing so could invite nuclear Armageddon. Instead, they aim to shift the balance away from US dominance to a multipolar world where they wield greater influence.
The conflict is playing out just below the threshold of direct military conflict. Nevertheless, it is a high-stakes struggle among the world’s major powers to determine the future world order, just as in previous world wars.
This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and unfolding rapidly.
In fact, World War 3 has been ongoing for over a decade.
While WW3 lacks an official starting date, two pivotal events in 2013 and 2014 signaled the beginning of this global struggle between Russia, China, and the US to reshape the world order.
The first was the rise of Xi Jinping in March 2013. It quickly became evident that China was no longer content with being a junior member of the US-led system. Instead, Beijing sought a role commensurate with its power—at minimum, equal to the US, if not the world’s dominant force.
The second was the US-backed coup in Kiev in February 2014, which led to the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government and its replacement by a pro-US administration.
Ukraine is Russia’s most vital neighbor—both culturally and strategically. Slavic nations, including Russia, trace their heritage to the Kievan Rus’, a federation of tribes centered in present-day Ukraine that existed from the late 800s to the early 1200s.
Ukraine is also of immense geopolitical value. For years, US strategists have pursued the idea of integrating Ukraine into NATO, a move that would significantly weaken Russia’s military position and further isolate Moscow—an appealing prospect for those favoring a unipolar world.
After the 2014 coup, Moscow became convinced that the US was determined to bring Russia under its control. In response, Russia saw no choice but to push back—primarily by aligning with China and other nations to shift the world order from unipolar to multipolar.
I believe these two events marked the beginning of a global struggle among the most powerful nations to reshape the international order—World War 3.
Since then, the conflict has only escalated and may soon reach a tipping point that changes everything.
The graphic below (click to enlarge) maps out the timeline of recent world orders and world wars, offering a clearer perspective on their evolution—and where we may be headed next.
The US-led world order has undergone several distinct phases since the end of World War 2.
From 1945 to 1991, it was defined by the Cold War—a global struggle between the US and the Soviet Union.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the post-WW2 world order experienced a massive shift, with the US emerging as the undisputed global superpower. This era, often called the “unipolar moment,” lasted from 1991 until Trump’s inauguration in 2025.
Though it endured for 34 years, the notion that the US could maintain a unipolar world order indefinitely was never realistic.
President Trump seems to recognize that maintaining it is not just unrealistic but unsustainable. He appears to have decided that it is in the US’s best interest to transition to a multipolar reality on its own terms rather than be forced into it by a chaotic collapse.
We are now in a volatile adjustment period as the unipolar world order gives way to a multipolar one.
Does that mean World War 3 is over?
I don’t think so. But it does mean we have entered a new phase of it.
There is still much to be determined—most crucially, the boundaries of the US, Russia, and China’s spheres of influence in this emerging multipolar world.
With the war in Ukraine all but lost and the prospect of victory in Taiwan shrinking by the day, the US government appears to have accepted that the complete subjugation of Russia and China under its unipolar dominance is no longer an achievable goal.
The goalposts of World War 3 have shifted.
Rather than total victory and preserving the unipolar world order, the US is now focused on maximizing its power within the new multipolar landscape—while limiting the influence of its most formidable rivals: Russia and China.
While the US seems to be moving away from the unipolar model and begrudgingly acknowledging the existence of rival powers (Russia and China), it still seeks to be the dominant force in a multipolar world.
The boundaries of the US, Russia, and China’s spheres of influence in this emerging multipolar world have yet to be defined, and the situation remains volatile and dangerous. Whether Trump can successfully guide the US—and the world—through this transition without descending into greater conflict remains an open question.
On a smaller scale, this mirrors how powerful criminal organizations—such as mafias and street gangs—operate within a city. Ideally, a gang or mafia would eliminate all rivals. However, when certain rivals prove too strong to destroy, the conflict shifts toward defining boundaries until a formal arrangement is reached that divides territories.
The same dynamic is now unfolding on a global scale between the US, Russia, and China as World War 3 plays out.
Each side is maneuvering to expand its power and influence until a new arrangement is reached that defines the balance of the multipolar world.
Determining the precise boundaries of various spheres of influence in a multipolar world—and formalizing them into an agreement—will be a complex and prolonged process. It won’t happen overnight.
Until a formal agreement is reached among the world’s major powers—much like the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic Wars, the Treaty of Versailles following World War 1, and the Yalta Conference at the close of World War 2—World War 3 will continue.
The Middle East: The Decisive Battleground of WW3
The Middle East presents one of the greatest uncertainties in the emerging multipolar world. I believe the region will be pivotal.
If the US and its allies prevail there, it could open the door to containing Russian and Chinese influence within a multipolar world.
But if Russia and China gain the upper hand in this strategic region, the US will suffer a major geopolitical downgrade, much like the British Empire after World Wars 1 and 2.
The region is further complicated by the presence of powerful regional players like Turkey, nuclear-armed Israel, and Iran, all of whom have their own interests.
The US, Russia, and China will not only need to define their boundaries in the Middle East, but so will these regional actors. There’s no sign of a resolution anytime soon. The region remains volatile, and the potential for a regional conflict escalating into a global confrontation remains a real possibility.
A key question is Iran’s role in the multipolar world order. If the Middle East is pivotal to the global balance of power in a multipolar world, then Iran is pivotal to the balance of power within the Middle East.
Control of Iran would give the US even greater leverage over the Middle East’s hydrocarbon resources. A US-aligned government in Tehran could help block China’s Belt and Road Initiative from pushing further west and potentially cut off 14% of China’s oil imports. It would also hinder Russian trade through the Caspian Sea and serve as a launchpad to destabilize Russia from its southern flank.
In short, bringing Iran under US influence would open the door to further undermining both Russia and China. For them, Iran is strategic depth.
Russia and China cannot afford to let Iran fall—and the US and Israel cannot afford to let it stand. The question is: who will prevail?
It’s doubtful that the US and its allies can win the war in Ukraine against Russia or a potential war over Taiwan against China. Their best shot at rolling back Russian and Chinese influence in a multipolar world is through striking Iran.
That’s why I believe the US and its allies will make their last stand to preserve global preeminence by attempting to overthrow Iran’s government—likely through full-scale war. Whether they’ll succeed is another question entirely.
As the Middle East becomes the decisive battleground in the struggle to shape the new world order, the consequences are not just geopolitical—they are deeply personal. The outcome of this conflict could trigger the most dangerous economic crisis in a hundred years, one that threatens your financial stability, personal freedom, and way of life.
To help you navigate what’s coming, I’ve prepared an urgent Special Report: “The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… and the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.” It explains the global forces at play, what they mean for you, and the critical steps you can take today to prepare. Click here to access the report and read it now. History is moving fast. Don’t get left behind.
END
MEDICAL/GLOBAL ISSUES
this should never ever happen!!
CDC Adviser Says Vote On RSV Antibody Was Based On Distorted Data
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
An adviser to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) who voted in favor of a respiratory syncytial virus antibody for infants says new data that has come to light indicates that the vote was based on presentations that omitted crucial information.
“It appears that this decision was based on manipulated data analyses,” Dr. Robert Malone, a member of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), said in a blog post on Aug. 20.
Malone and four other members of the panel in June voted to advise the CDC to recommend the antibody called clesrovimab for infants to try to prevent respiratory syncytial virus. Known as RSV, the virus typically causes mild symptoms such as a cold but can, in some cases, lead to severe problems and, according to the CDC, is a leading cause of infant hospitalization.
Two members voted to advise the CDC not to recommend clesrovimab.
The vote followed presentations by CDC epidemiologist Adam MacNeil and Dr. Matthew Daley, who works closely with the CDC and is a former member of ACIP.
MacNeil said in his presentation that there was no increased risk for seizures in infants in 2024 and early 2025 who received nirsevimab, the only antibody available to infants at the time, based on data from the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink. Daley provided more information, summarizing the study of information from the data system. That included a finding that when splitting infants into two subgroups, aged zero to 37 days and 38 days to just younger than 8 months of age, there was not a statistically significant risk of seizures.
“These are truly remarkable products,” Dr. Cody Meissner, an ACIP member who studied them as part of a committee workgroup, said after the presentations and before the vote. “They are safe and they’re effective.”
Malone said before the vote that “concerning this product, it has been very actively debated internally and I’m satisfied that, given the short period of time we have to address this, that I’m comfortable that we have sufficient information.”
Retsef Levi, one of the no votes, said that he was voting no “based on the fact that I don’t feel this is ready to be administered to all healthy babies” and how he wanted to take a more precautionary approach.
The presentation did not include a pooled analysis or seizures from the combined infant population.
Maryanne Demasi, a journalist and researcher who holds a doctorate in rheumatology, later performed an independent analysis of the seizure data, pooling the two infant populations. She found that infants who received nirsevimab were four times more likely to suffer seizures.
Malone said on Aug. 20 that, based on that new information, as well as other concerns raised about the presentations, such as the lack of inclusion of data from other government-run safety systems, it appears that his vote in favor of the new antibody “based on the information and logic presented” was actually “on manipulated data analyses.”
“That trust in the data presented now appears to have been ill-advised. Going forward, speaking for myself, based on these findings, I will no longer be able to trust that what is presented in CDC summaries to the ACIP is transparent, accurate, and unbiased,” he said.
Levi told The Epoch Times in an email that “we all need to aspire to higher level of transparency and deeper discussions of potential safety signals.” He declined to comment further.
Other members did not return requests for comment or could not be reached.
Merck and AstraZeneca, which manufacture the antibodies, did not reply to requests for comment.
The CDC and Daley did not respond to inquiries.
“Dr. Malone was speaking in his personal capacity on his own blog, outside of his responsibilities as an ACIP member,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services told The Epoch Times via email. “ACIP remains committed to evidence-based medicine, gold-standard science, and common sense.”
The department, the CDC’s parent agency, is headed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who appointed Malone and others to the ACIP after removing the existing members.
Dr. Jake Scott, a clinical associate professor of medicine at Stanford University, wrote on X that he did not agree with concerns about the presentations.
Pooling the subgroups of infants should not be done, he said, because most infants in the first group did not receive vaccines at the same time as the antibody, while many in the second group did.
“Vaccines are well-established fever triggers, and febrile seizures are documented vaccine side effects. When you pool newborns who got minimal vaccine exposure with 2-month-olds receiving … vaccines, you’re not measuring nirsevimab effects, you’re measuring vaccine-induced fever effects and misattributing them to the antibody,” Scott said on X.
During the ACIP meeting, Daley said 20 percent of the younger age group received hepatitis B vaccines on the same day as nirsevimab, while 84 percent of the infants in the older group received simultaneous vaccination of various shots.
“So essentially the safety evidence that I presented yesterday, in particular for that group who were 37 days to less than 8 months of age, does represent safety with simultaneous vaccination,” he said.
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of Giovanni Miller—born, in Chicago, on Feb. 22, 2012; then murdered, two months later, by the CDC
My nephew—whom I never got to see—died shortly after getting the six shots given to all two-month-olds in the US, as dictated by the CDC
| Mark Crispin MillerAug 22 |
Those six shots left the baby feverish and sluggish; then he had a nosebleed, and then died.
Just as the doctors always do when such things happen, they claimed the baby’s death was just a sad coincidence. Since there was a day or two between his vaccinations and his passing, they couldn’t chalk it up to “SIDS,” it having not been “sudden”; nor did they blame it on what they call “Shaken Baby Syndrome” when circumstances seem to make that diagnosis feasible.
So it was just this really, really sad coincidence, they said, with professional long faces—an explanation as believable as it would be if you had clams for dinner at some restaurant, followed by a night of vomiting and diarrhea, and then your doctor (a part-owner of the restaurant, perhaps) assured you that some “stomach bug” (“It’s going around”) had caused your night of pain.
The record of Giovanni’s final vaccinations:
Giovanni’s story is just one example of a trend that started under Reagan, and steadily accelerated ever since, the CDC’s ruthlessly expansive childhood vaccine schedule reaping billions for the pharmaceutical cartel, by killing and disabling countless of our children. And now those doctors in Big Pharma’s pocket, thanks to the criminal collusion of the CDC, use much the same kind of fake-scientific logic to explain (away) the countless “sudden deaths” and crippling ailments following COVID “vaccination,” with the difference that the latter are generally explained (away) as symptomatic of “long COVID.”
It is therefore the best of news, in these horrific times, that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has made good on his pledge to put a stop to the infanticidal protocol long “recommended” by the CDC. Having purged that agency of its well-paid vaccine fanatics, he’s pledged now to investigate that protocol at last; and his stance has emboldened some real doctors—“real” meaning that they work not to get rich(er) but according to the Hippocratic Oath—to take the CDC to court, for its criminal failure to test the cumulative impact of its 72-dose childhood vaccine schedule:
This is major news, with profound implications for the health of all Americans—which is precisely why Big Pharma, and its multitudinous shills in Congress and (especially) “our free press,” are reacting to RFK, Jr.’s move with the same virulent hysteria that drove medieval peasants to attack “the Jews” for poisoning wells. As accessories to mass murder, may those shills, too, get theirs, along with the infanticidal captive agency that Kennedy is finally cleaning out.
p.s. “Woke” racialists will certainly find Giovanni’s story all the sadder for the fact that he was, or would have been, a “person of color,” as his father happens to be black.
end
DR PAULALEXANDER
RFK Jr., my brother from another mother, someone I admire deeply, respect & regard, I have one question: Did Susie Wiles & Trump inner orbit de-ball you? Did they strap your stones to your legs?
minute 2.40 to 2.48; did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts, to trade a walk on part in the war, for a lead role in a cage? for that is where you are now, in a cage! I love you still man! I
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 22 |
pray you break free of the chains that bind you…you stood with us, broke bread with us, we fought together with your stewardship against the OWS deadly lockdowns and the deadly Malone Bourla Pfizer Bancel Sahin Moderna BioNTech Weissman Tureci Kariko Hahn Moncef et al. mRNA vaccine…you were our tip of spear…
where has Bobby Jr. gone? I am not the other substackers my brother from another mother, I want you to succeed, I am not a ‘just come’ looking for taxpayer money, pulling flint…it was I and a few like me who started the anti-fraud COVID pushback…against the lockdowns and Malone mRNA vaccine…this is why today I stand with McCullough for he stood up when many inserted their heads up their assess…many doctors and scientists…Risch, Urso, Ladapo, Jenny Beth Martin…Oskoui…these are the real vanguards…this is why I support Foster Coulson for when others balked and did nothing, bitched and played with themselves, he put his money on the line to save lives…see I ain’t frauds like Prasad and Makary and Oz et al. for we are cut from a different cloth. These bitches stood for years slamming and insulting Trump, did nothing, smeared him, make jokes about him, worked against him….you think I do not know all you people did? just fraud wonky pseudo-science they spewed, most academically sloppy, specious, and intellectually lazy to even read the science…in and out of Presidency they hit Trump…now prostrated…begging…shameless…damaging the society with their fraud reckless BS science. again…doing all Wiles et al. wants to, in order to get mRNA shots out our eyeballs.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
pppsssst, did RFK Jr. as yet reverse the SPIKEVAX for infants 6 months and older? just asking. am I wrong? if I am, I take it back. tell me, is SPIKEVAX reversed?
he has zero power. placeholder. Love him so, so I love and support him. admire him.
how I wish the real RFK Jr. would come out to play. you are larger than life RFK Jr…so much to give and offer RFK Jr…stand up…riot act their sorry crooked assess…
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
NEWS ADDICTS
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NEWSWIZE
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EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Earnings Of China’s Refining Giant Sinopec Plunge Amid Low Oil Prices, Weaker Fuel Demand
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 05:00 AM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
The largest Chinese and Asian refiner Sinopec reported on Thursday a 36% decline in its first-half profit on the back of lower oil prices and refining margins and weakening domestic fuel demand.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, as it is more commonly known, booked a profit attributable to shareholders of $3.3 billion (23.75 billion Chinese yuan) for the period January to June 2025, down by 35.9% from the same period last year.
“Dragged by various factors such as the declining international crude oil prices combined with weak chemical margins, the Company’s profitability for the first half significantly decreased year on year,” Sinopec’s chairman Hou Qijun said in a statement accompanying the first-half results.
Sinopec estimates that while China’s natural gas demand rose by 2.1% year-over-year in January to June, domestic consumption of refined petroleum products slumped by 3.6% from a year earlier, “mainly affected by alternative energy.”
China’s gasoline consumption fell by 4.6% and diesel demand decreased by 4.3%, while kerosene consumption rose by 4.2%, Sinopec said.
The domestic demand for major chemical products grew rapidly, with ethylene equivalent consumption up by 10.1% year on year, the Chinese state giant added.
Looking forward, Sinopec expects China’s domestic demand for natural gas and chemical products to increase in the second half of the year, while demand for refined oil products “will be impacted by alternative energy.”
In the refining business, the company vowed to diversify its crude oil resources, dynamically optimize the procurement scale and pace, and reduce procurement costs. That’s likely a hint that it would boost the supply of domestic and cheap foreign crude to process at refineries amid weak margins and weak domestic demand for transportation fuels.
Over the past year, consumption of the road transportation fuels – gasoline and diesel – has been trailing the levels from just two years ago, when China was emerging from nearly three years of Covid-related lockdowns. That’s not only because of the pent-up demand back in 2023. A large part of the lower gasoline and diesel demand is due to the soaring sales of electric passenger cars and trucks and LNG-fueled heavy-duty vehicles.
END
Trump ‘Very Angry’ At Ukraine Repeatedly Attacking Russian Pipeline To Hungary, Slovakia
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 01:00 PM
For the second time in less than two weeks, Russian oil shipments to Hungary have been suspended following yet another Ukrainian strike on the Druzhba pipeline.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced it Friday, with Slovak officials also confirming. “This is yet another blow to our energy security – another effort to pull us into the war,” Szijjarto stated on social media. It occurred near the Russia-Belarus border.
Prior strikes on the Druzhba pipeline network took place on August 13 and August 18, with the last attack having crippled a vital transformer station, which had previously but briefly halted oil flows.
It is certainly nothing new that Ukraine’s intelligence and military is targeting Russian energy infrastructure; however, what is new is President Trump’s surprise reaction:
U.S. President Donald Trump said he got “very angry” after Ukraine damaged a Russian oil pipeline that supplies his friend Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister.
Trump responded to a note from Orbán, who complained about a Ukrainian drone attack overnight on Aug. 13 hitting the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies Hungary, Slovakia and other countries in Central Europe with Russian oil through Ukrainian territory.
“Viktor — I do not like hearing this. I am very angry about it. Tell Slovakia,” Trump wrote according to a letter published online by Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. “You are my great friend,” the U.S. president added.
Below is the letter as released by Hungarian state media and the prime minister’s office:
The incident that Trump was responding to was an earlier August attack, which occurred “just before the historic meeting between President Trump and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in Alaska” – as Orban wrote.
“Hungary supports Ukraine with electricity and petrol, in return they bomb pipeline that supply us. Very unfriendly move,” Orban stated.
Trump might also condemn this newest Friday attack if he’s asked about it by reporters – but there remains something deeply contradictory about the White House stance. Trump just this week in a Truth Social post seemed to say that Ukraine must go on the offensive against Russia if it hopes to achieve a peace deal which benefits Kiev. As the WSJ noted:
By Thursday, he was saying that Kyiv had no chance of winning the war without new attacks on Russia.
“It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense,” Trump posted on social media. “Interesting times ahead!!!”
His turnaround underscored the fading optimism about Trump’s latest push to end the war.
Trump seems to be signaling that he wants to see Ukraine go on the offensive, but refrain from hitting energy sites. This is at least consistent with Trump’s wanting a ‘freeze’ on attacks targeting energy infrastructure, which had been enacted for a brief period months ago.
Hungary continues to rely heavily on Russian oil, even after most European nations have imposed sanctions and sought alternative sources.
x.com/yarotrof/status/1958870200616722450?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1958870200616722450%7Ctwgr%5E99a08e1ff585c9cea73d90c50910f0eedbf6a303%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fenergy%2Ftrump-very-angry-ukraine-repeatedly-attacking-russian-pipeline-hungary-slovakia
Budapest’s Russian energy supply is primarily delivered through the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through Belarus and Ukraine before reaching Hungary and Slovakia.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Canada’s Carney Backs Down On Tariffs As Trump Welcomes Another Win
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 03:05 PM
Another major economy and country backs down, and Trump wins again – as on Friday Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will drop its retaliatory tariffs in step with the United States as both countries work to de-escalate their trade dispute.
Carney in a Friday press conference said the US side clarified it would not apply tariffs to Canadian products that adhere to the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Even Politico has starkly described it as Carney backs down in a major concession:
“We have the best deal of anyone in the world right now,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa, noting that the average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods is 5.6 percent, the lowest among America’s trading partners. “Today, the Government of Canada is harmonizing its tariffs with the U.S.”
However, he noted that some duties, particularly on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, will still remain in effect. Other sources quoted in various reports have also indicated this.
“In this context and consistent with Canada’s commitment to USMCA, I am announcing today that the Canadian government will now match the United States by removing all of Canada’s tariffs on US goods specifically covered under USMCA,” said Carney, previewing that the change will take effect on September 1.
“Canada and the US have now re-established free trade for the vast majority of our goods,” he added.
The White House hailed the move: “We welcome this move by Canada, which is long overdue. We look forward to continuing our discussions with Canada on the Administration’s trade and national security concerns,” a Trump admin official said. And more via breaking Canadian media reports:
- U.S. President Donald Trump commended the tariff removal, calling it “nice” and saying he wanted to “be good to Canada.”
- Trump raised tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35 per cent on Aug. 1.
- The Trump administration said Canada’s rate was being hiked in response to fentanyl trafficking and Canada’s earlier decision to hit back with counter-tariffs.
The Canadian dollar is strengthening notably against the US dollar today (helped by Powell’s words and Carney’s actions)…
Reuters has reviewed of the transition from Trudeau:
Carney’s predecessor as prime minister, Justin Trudeau, imposed 25% tariffs on $21 billion in goods imported annually from the U.S. on March 6 in response to Trump’s initial duties.
The C$30 billion was part of an overall retaliation plan to target C$155 billion worth of imported goods from the U.S., though the remaining C$125 billion has been delayed.
Carney had repeatedly claimed he had a mandate from the public to ‘stand up to’ the Trump administration, but alas he’s the latest in a line of global leaders to instead sit down amid the immense tariff and trade pressure.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1594 DOWN 0.0018 PTS OR 18 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.60 UP 0.219 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3405 DOWN .0012 OR 12 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3912 UP 0.0010 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 54.66PTS OR 1.45%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 214.70PTS OR 0.86%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.16%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 214.70 PTS OR 0.86%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 54.66 PTS OR 1.45%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.57 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 23.12 PTS OR 0.05%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3328.00
silver:$38.04
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.64 UP 13 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.159% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.626% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.323 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.585 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7389 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1609 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.57 UP 0.188 OR YEN IS DOWN 19 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7310 UP 6 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0021 OR 21 BASIS pts to 1.3923
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1802 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1844
TURKISH LIRA: 41.02 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.626
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.304% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.896 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.785 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3333.50
SILVER AT 11;00: 37.99
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 12.20 PTS OR 0.13%
GERMAN DAX: UP 69.75 pts or 0.25%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 31.40 pts or 0.40%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 93.00 pts or 0.61%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 296.84 or 0.69%
WTI Oil price 63.61 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 67.68 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.71 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 14/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.447 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.971 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1721 UP 0.01085 OR 41 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3526 UP .01083 OR 108 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6888 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.624 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.85 DOWN 1.535 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3824 DOWN 0.0077 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 77 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.80
Brent OIL: 67.81
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.251
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 PTS to 4.881%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 22 PTS AT 3.6811%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.444 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.948 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.61 DOWN 91 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.000 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.91 DOWN 0 AND 34/100 roubles //
GOLD $3369.90 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 38.95 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 846.24 OR 1.89%
NASDAQ 100 UP 355.54 PTS OR 1.54%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.38 DOWN 2.22 OR 13.37%
GLD: $ 310.58 UP 3.29 PTS OR 1.07%
SLV/ $35.34 UP 0.73 PTS OR OR 2.11%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 277.70 PTS OR 0.99%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Dovish’ Powell Drives Dollar-Dump, Panic-Buying Across Risk-Assets
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM
Well that escalated quickly…
Fed Chair Jay Powell shocked (some of) the market by dovishly suggesting a change of monetary policy stance was imminent due to weakening employment.
The Chairman acknowledged that “the baseline outlook and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
Rate-cut odds for September (and December) surged…
Source: Bloomberg
That narrative shift forced a repricing across every asset class with the dollar dumped as stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, and oil all ripped higher.
Small Caps led the charge higher today, ripping over 3% higher on the week. However, despite the big gains today, Nasdaq still ended the week lower…
The dilemma now facing investors today: markets have already taken credit for both more growth and more policy easing – an unusual combination as Goldman’s Chris Hussey highlights:
“The Fed still needs to ‘normalize’ rates from its post-pandemic inflation surge rate hike cycle, which sets the table for rate cuts.
And when it does start cutting rates, investors seem to be confident that easing monetary policy alongside a new Tech era (AI) spending spree will quickly right the US growth ship, offset trade war and immigration reform headwinds, and legitimize the 24X P/E multiple that the S&P 500 trades at today”
Despite a decent bounce today, Mag7 stocks ended the week in the red…
Source: Bloomberg
Momo stocks bounced significantly (finding support at the 200DMA)…
Source: Bloomberg
Retail Favorites roared back into positive territory for the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Hedge funds had a tough day as their biggest shorts squeezed higher and wiped away gains from VIP longs (but overall, hedgies outperformed this week)…
Source: Bloomberg
Away from equity markets was even more chaotic today (and on the week).
Treasury yields plunged today (2Y -12bps), dragging the entire curve down (in yields) on the week with the belly outpeforming…
Source: Bloomberg
Prompting a huge steepening on the week to a new cycle high (steepest since Jan 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
As short-end yields fell back near the lows of the year…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar crashed to one week lows with its biggest one-day drop since the Liberation Day craziness in early April…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, the dollar index traded very technically in today’s tumble, testing the 100DMA from below, failing , then breaking down below the 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied back above its 50DMA, after finding support at the 100MA…
Source: Bloomberg
Digital Gold (Bitcoin) also ripped higher today (up 4% for the best day since the early April chaos), rallying back above its 50DMA after finding support at the 100DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum soared over 13% higher today, breaking to new record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum’s outperformance lifted it to its strongest against bitcoin since Sept 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Fitch followed S&P in reaffirming its USA credit rating as it appears Moody’s could not have top-ticked their downgrade any better…
Source: Bloomberg
having got over the hump of Powell’s final J-Hole speech, next week brings yet another big event already being priced into vol markets…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that in the middle of the summer doldrums for trading liquidity… But, US equities have been dramatically upgraded in recent weeks…
Source: Goldman Sachs
And as Goldman points out, equities tend to rise as FED start to cut rates…
Source: Goldman Sachs
…even when they start with markets close to ATHs.
BIG NEW OF THE DAY:
PMs ready for next move
Quiet conditions in precious metals belie explosive upside potential, given a government bond market crisis developing in all major currencies.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 22∙Paid |
In quiet trading, the current consolidation phase in precious metals extended this week. This morning in Europe, gold at $3,330 was down $6 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $38.00 was barely changed. Gold has now been trending sideways for four months, half of 2025 to date while silver has outperformed with the gold/silver ratio falling from 105 to 87.
A notable feature in these otherwise unremarkable conditions has been stand for deliveries on Comex. Since the end of July, a whopping 102.8 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, taking the total so far this year to 873.6 tonnes. In silver, over the same periods, 267.5 tonnes and 8,665 tonnes have stood for delivery respectively.
Those in the know are hoarding physical at the expense of paper. But in the very short-term, so far as prices are concerned, the last trade for September options is next Tuesday with calls expiring, providing a strong incentive for market makers to mark gold and silver lower.
This short-term stuff will prove to be irrelevant. We are in the eye of a financial hurricane, and this is set to change.
With trading in gold and silver quiet, we turn our attention to a developing bond market crisis, and how it impacts gold and silver. Long maturity yields are rising as evidence mounts of a buyers’ strike on a global scale. The only reasons that yields have not gone even higher is because governments have restricted supply by funding in short maturities, and markets are still in a summer torpor with investment managers away from their desks.
When they return in the coming weeks, they will find that CPI inflation is rising, economies are stagnating, and the government deficits which require funding are turning out to be larger than expected.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield is higher than it has been since 2008 and appears to be going higher still:
The 30-year JGB yield is double that. Germany’s 30-year bund tells a similar story:
Uk’s long gilt yield is similarly bearish, while the US long bond yield is left slightly behind but look set to break out at any moment:
It is a global phenomenon common to the largest four currencies. Rising yields at the long end of the curve are now dragging benchmark 10-year yields higher. And when the long bond yield rises above 5.1%, it is likely to trigger a crisis not just back down the yield curve, but for equity valuations and those of other financial assets as well.
So where would that leave gold and silver? Clearly, a debt crisis popping the equity bubble has major implications for fiat currencies.
Until recently, traders believed that higher interest rates and bond yields were bad for gold, but that myth ignored the experience of the 1970s and has been blown out of the water by gold correlating with higher bond yields. The reason is simple: higher bond yields reflect a decline in confidence in the issuer and/or an expectation of a fall in the currency’s purchasing power and the value of associated credit. It is the fundamental reason why central banks are selling fiat for gold.
The risk to government bond values is tied to a rapid deterioration in government finances. Stagnating economies combined with high debt to GDP metrics are leading them into debt traps, which can only be negated by massive cuts in government spending. There is no evidence that the necessary cuts are forthcoming. Keynesians believing in credit stimulation completely wrong-footed.
Therefore, gold whose purchasing power is relatively consistent over the centuries appears to rise as currencies decline. But after its 4-month consolidation, gold is now close to breaking out on the upside as credit risk in currencies increases, as the technical chart below illustrates.
And silver leads the way. If silver was a stock, we would say it is undergoing a radical rerating.
END
FROM JACKSON HOLE:
September Rate Cut In The Bag: Wall Street Reacts To Powell’s Dovish Swan Song
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 04:20 PM
In our preview of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole swan song (because one thing is certain: Jerome will never come back to the Grand Tetons again), we said that “Powell Will Support A September Rate Cut“, even though the rest of the market seemed to not agree (judging by the shocked response we saw at exactly 10am). As such, today’s outcome was hardly a surprise to us and our subscribers who knew – and traded appropriately – everything that would happen.
Everyone else, however, is behind the curve and chasing the market reaction. Among them are most Wall Street strategists and economists, most of whom admit in their own words that they were unprepared for what is coming. Below we excerpt several kneejerk reactions from the front lines:
Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab:
“The speech helps to confirm—without officially confirming—a September rate cut, but not necessarily a full-blown cutting cycle,” “The market’s initial positive response reflects the comfort and relief of not being completely at odds with the Fed.”
Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co LLC:
“This is an important shift for Chairman Powell. The question for the markets now is whether concerns over slower growth will cause earnings to decline, but the Fed is not going to create significant headwinds for investors.”
Dan Carter, porfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors;
“Even with Powell’s more dovish tone, the data in coming weeks still pose some risks. The market will like this change in tone. But I think we have to be careful not to get too far ahead. There is still a lot of data between now and the next FOMC meeting.”
Simon Penn, Macro Sales at UBS:
“Powell’s Message Is That An Inflection Point Has Been Reached; Payrolls Were A Critical Data Point. Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech represents the framing and justification of an inflection in policy bias. It’s a very logically constructed set of observations. Powell’s opening is entirely context – here’s the economy over the first half of the year. Then he changes tack, by referencing July’s employment data. Threaded into the speech is a bit of subtle political push back – references to rates having been cut and inflation being lower than it was; and the great uncertainties and disruptions caused by policy elsewhere in Washington…. That all opens the way for the big reveal on policy: Powell hits the audience with the punchline: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” So, having laid it all out with the justifications, he provides the clear outcome – the policy bias has switched.
David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation:
“Powell just flipped the mandate. His talk of labor market slack and slowing GDP growth moves the needle from price stability to full employment. Job growth is weak and continuing claims are on the rise. Better safe than sorry, especially with the political pressures Powell is facing. There’s a lot of data between now and the September meeting so there’s no reason to upset the apple cart right now. If the next jobs or CPI reports surprise to the upside, Powell can get more hawkish without hurting his credibility. But defying the market now would create major risk if the August data comes in light.”
Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US economist at Deutsche Bank:
“Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech leaned more dovish than we expected… Powell emphasized “the balance of risks appears to be shifting.” This showed increased concern around the labor market picture that could potentially warrant a policy response. Second, near the end of the discussion around the economic outlook, Powell noted “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” While this line was followed by the usual disclaimers around data dependence and not being on a preset course, it did not contain any conditionality around, or reference to, upcoming data points on the labor market or inflation. As such, we took this as a reasonably strong signal that Chair Powell is leaning towards a 25bps reduction in September. For our Fed view, we now see a 25bp rate cut in September as most likely. After that, we see the Fed delivering 25bp reductions in December and March, which would bring the fed funds rate to our longer-run estimate of nominal neutral.”
Leo He, UBS Macro Quant Strategist:
“Powell’s Jackson Hole Script More Dovish Than I Expected. I recommended receiving December 2025 FOMC into the Jackson Hole and the script turned out to be more dovish than I thought. First, Chair Powell noted the falling nonfarm payrolls may lead to sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment. I mentioned last week that whenever the rolling 3-month nonfarm payrolls fell below 35, it was a turning point of the labor market. Second, his base case is still tariffs’ impact is a one-time shift in the price level. And lastly, he explicitly said with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. Again, I think the fair pricing of 2025 Fed cut should be somewhere between 2 to 3 cuts, not 1 to 2.”
Needless to say, we agree with the dovish takes having presented it 2 days ago. The only question is whether we get 25 or 50bps, and based on what we believe will be revealed on Sept 9, the answer is the latter. More in the post later today.
DATA RELEASES
ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Authorities Bust Multimillion Dollar LA-Area Cargo Theft Ring
Thursday, Aug 21, 2025 – 11:30 PM
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Authorities in Los Angeles County have cracked a storefront operation trafficking millions of dollars worth of goods allegedly stolen in train and cargo burglaries, officials announced on Aug. 20.
A total of $4.5 million in stolen property—including power tools, appliances, and electric bikes—was recovered on Aug. 14 and Aug. 19 when investigators searched two locations of DJ General Tool and Wire, located in Montebello and Huntington Park.
Several pricey brands were uncovered, including Dyson, Milwaukee, DeWalt, and Makita products. Many of the items were being sold at the stores and online, according to the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD).
LAPD detectives worked with the Union Pacific Police Department and the Los Angeles Port Police during the operation.
Dojoon Park, 41, of Montebello, was arrested on Aug. 14 and booked at the LAPD’s Metropolitan Detention Center on suspicion of receiving stolen property, a felony.
Park was released the same day, in accordance with the county’s zero-bail policy. He is scheduled to appear in court on Sept. 8.
Neither DJ General Tool and Wire nor Park could be reached for comment.
“Organized cargo and retail theft strikes at the heart of our economy, impacting local businesses, workers, and everyday families,” said LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. “This operation underscores our department’s commitment to dismantling criminal networks that profit from stolen goods.”
The investigation is ongoing, and detectives anticipate more arrests, the LAPD said.
Los Angeles County District Attorney Nathan Hochman’s office is expected to file charges against Park. The office did not return a request for information about the charges.
“Cargo theft is not a victimless crime,” Hochman said in a statement. “It hurts businesses, damages the supply chain, and drives up costs for everyone.”
The Port of Los Angeles has been a hot spot for cargo crime in recent years. Authorities have reported a surge in thefts, driven by organized crime rings.
Cargo theft in the United States and Canada reached a record high of 3,625 incidents in 2024, up 27 percent from the previous year, according to CargoNet data reported by wholesale insurance broker Burns and Wilcox.
California’s cargo theft incidents rose by 33 percent last year from 2023, the data showed.
In April, the LAPD arrested two prominent members of a South American theft group after an extensive investigation into cargo theft in the Los Angeles area.
Detectives arrested Oscar David Borrero-Manchola, 41, and Yonaiker Rafael Martinez-Ramos, 25, after investigators uncovered more than $1.2 million in stolen tequila, speakers, coffee, clothing, shoes, body wash, and pet food at storage facilities in the San Fernando Valley.
Authorities also recovered a stolen shipment of bitcoin mining computers valued at $2.7 million from Los Angeles International Airport. The computers were about to be loaded onto a plane headed to Hong Kong, the LAPD reported.
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM
KING NEWs
| The King Report for August 22, 2025 | Independent View of the News |
| Walmart reports stronger-than-expected sales — but shares drop as profits get squeezed by tariffs Posted quarterly revenue of $177.4 billion — a hefty 4.8% jump that sailed past Wall Street’s $175.9 billion target. But Walmart meanwhile missed quarterly profit expectations for the first time since May 2022. Executives also warned they expect to hike prices on about 10% of items across its stores to offset higher import costs from President Trump’s tariff policies… Adjusted earnings clocked in at just 68 cents per share, falling short of the 73 cents analysts had penciled in… https://t.co/Tb80N0mzvJ S&P Global US Flash PMI Growth and hiring accelerate in August, whilst selling price inflation hits three-year high Tariffs were reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies across both manufacturing and service sectors collectively reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. Rates of increase accelerated in both sectors. While the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 as firms passed higher costs on to customers… https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/970a92b794eb4408b7b0a3df3073d275 Aug S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 53.3, 49.7 expected, 49.8 prior Aug S&P Global US Services PMI 55.4, 54.2 expected 55.7 prior Aug S&P Global US Composite PMI 55.4, 53.5 expected, 55.1 prior @MikaelSarwe: Philly Fed… Something to think about ahead of Jackson Hole perhaps... (Phil Fed survey shows prices paid are ripping higher.) https://x.com/MikaelSarwe/status/1958530404970869177 @MichaelMOTTCM: Compare Philly Fed prices paid today to PPI. Prices paid just keep going up. (Prices Paid from Fed surveys leads PPI!) https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1958611828654973349 Initial Jobless Claims 235k, 225k expected, prior 224k Continuing Jobless Claims 1.972m, 1.96m expected, prior 1.942m from 1.953m (Cleveland Pres) Fed’s Hammack: The biggest concern is that inflation is too high, and inflation has been trending in the wrong direction. Fed’s Hammack: It’s Important to Maintain Modestly Restrictive Policy to Lower Inflation – Not Going to See Full Tariff Effect Until Next Year – It’s Just Now Tariff Impacts Are Starting to Affect Economy https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/1958546709673398475 @charliebilello: Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.10% – the highest level on record. A preview of what’s coming for the US if we don’t get our deficit/debt spiral under control… https://t.co/RsF7KqzHTG NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% (m/m; 0.8% y/y) Increase in July 0.6% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months’ supply. 0.2% increase in median existing-home sales price to $422,400 y/y $428,500: Median home price in July, up 0.3% from last year https://t.co/RbtQOavEYR Com Sec @howardlutnick: It’s official. We have finalized our historic U.S.–EU Framework Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced trade. The EU has agreed to open its $20 Trillion market. The second largest in the world behind the great USA. This deal: Eliminates EU tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, Delivers $750B in European energy demand during President Trumps term. And EU firms will invest an additional $600B in new investments in America… See the full Joint Statement below https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1958484249406775348 @GlobalMktObserv: The value of US data centers construction is on track to exceed general office construction over the next few months. Will these MASSIVE investments bring acceptable returns in the future? AI… is one of the biggest macro risks since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble… https://t.co/ibhhhGHQK4 Meta Freezes AI Hiring After Blockbuster Spending Spree – WSJ Company reorganizes its sprawling artificial-intelligence operation, whose spiraling cost has drawn investor scrutiny (Pay wall) Stocks and bonds declined early on Thursday because of the inflationary economic data and Walmart’s warning that tariff inflation has commenced and will intensify in company months. Fangs declined moderately on the Meta AI hiring freeze, the latest indication that AI is mostly hype now. ESUs opened modestly higher on Wednesday night but quickly declined to 6401.00 at 21:09 ET. A rally took ESUs to the daily high of 6419.00 at 22:22 ET. After a retreat to 6406.50 at 1:38 ET, ESUs completed an effective triple top of 6418.75 at 2:27 ET and 2:34 ET. ESUs commenced a relentless decline to 6375.50 at 8:45 ET. Conditioned traders aggressively bought the NYSE opening dip. ESUs jumped to 6412.25 at 10:27 ET. Alas, organic sellers appeared again. ESUs sank to 6385.25 at 11:12 ET. The manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close pushed ESUs to 6408.50 at 11:40 ET. The post-European contra-move appeared. ESUs tumbled to a new daily low of 6370.25 at 13:23 ET. Two weeks ago, the odds of a 25bp rate cut in September was 100%. By the close it was 61% on Polymarket. https://x.com/NoelConvex/status/1958617718506365193/photo/1 The afternoon A-B-C (very choppy B wave) rally took ESUs to 6397.50 at 15:09 ET. Trader liquidation pushed ESUs down to 6383.00 at 15:59 ET. Who is Julie Felss Masino? Boycott calls erupt as ‘Cracker Barrel going woke’ trends amid logo change https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/who-is-julie-felss-masino-boycott-calls-erupt-as-cracker-barrel-going-woke-trends-amid-logo-change/ar-AA1KVlOW @YIMBYLAND: This Cracker Barrel remodel/rebrand is one of the most upsetting things I’ve seen in a long time. Literally everyone I know is in shock. (pics) https://x.com/YIMBYLAND/status/1958339582149165349 Biz guru@ caroljsroth: Cracker Barrel’s stock is down double digits over investor concerns that its new rebrand, including changing its logo and remodeling its dining rooms, will alienate loyal customers. This is just the latest example in a long list of companies who don’t understand their core, loyal customers. While it is a challenge for companies to continually grow, and publicly traded companies are under even more pressure to do so, mathematically growth becomes harder if you are losing customers from your key customer base. Not all change is good. And if you make your customers believe you do not care about them and their relationship with your brand and company, it is going to be very difficult for you to be successful in your business. This is the stark reality many businesses who have sought out new customers have faced lately. It’s fine to reach new customers, but you must do it carefully and in a way that doesn’t simultaneously burn goodwill with your existing customers. (NFL, particularly Commish Goodell, take note!) Since at least the late ‘90s, leftist organizations slammed and picketed Cracker Barrell for perceived non-inclusive proclivities. Over the past few years, Cracker Barrell went woke, sponsoring and supporting leftist causes. Many customers weren’t aware of how Cracker Barrell had changed. The public shilling for its rebranding and revamping has made CB’s customers aware of the woke changes. Cracker Barrell sank as much as 14.8% on Thursday. Positive aspects of previous session ESUs and stocks rallied from 9:43 ET to 10:30 ET and from 13:23 ET to 15:09 ET. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds declined moderately. Fangs declined moderately. QQQ (Naz 100 ETF) declined for a 6th consecutive day, its longest losing streak since Oct 2022 The S&P 500 Index high occurred at 10:30 ET. Precious metals were mixed: gold down, silver & platinum up. Ambiguous aspects of previous session The Dollar Index rallied sharply. Forex jockeys might know what Powell will say! First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6372.18 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6393.65; 6352.71 @KansasCityFed: Our Jackson Hole 2025 Economic Policy Symposium program and agenda will be available online starting at 7 p.m. CT tonight (Thursday) at https://bit.ly/3ACMfOW. Fed Balance Sheet: -$25.2B on Accrued Interest; -$17.578B & MBS -$3.842B ; Reserves: -$17.907B The moment of truth is arriving for the NY Fang+ Index. The index has closed below it 21-day (monthly) moving average for two consecutive sessions. Since April, the index has quickly rebounded about its 21-DMA. Furthermore, the index bottomed near/on its 50-day moving average. Any significant from here could unleash the wailing and gnashing of teeth. The NY Fang+ Index – Do you have an exit plan? Trump: “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense but is not allowed to play offensive. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia. Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND defend — Interesting times ahead!!!” DoJ Special Counsel Ed Martin said he will investigate Fed Gov. Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud. Martin encouraged Jerome Powell to remove Cook from the Fed Board. In Thursday’s missive we stated that Fed Gov. Lisa Cook is an MIT economist. This is wrong; she’s a Berkley economist, which figures given her specialties. DoJ Special Counsel Ed Martin said he will investigate Fed Gov. Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud. Martin encouraged Jerome Powell to remove Cook from the Fed Board. In Thursday’s missive we stated that Fed Gov. Lisa Cook is an MIT economist. This is wrong; she’s a Berkley economist, which figures given her specialties. China Tells Tech Giants to Halt Nvidia H20 Orders After U.S. Official’s ‘Addiction’ Remark — Chinese leaders call Lutnick’s comments ‘insulting’ – You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack.’ — Sec. Lutnick https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/china-tells-tech-giants-to-halt-nvidia-h20-orders-after-u-s-officials-addiction-remark-chinese-leaders-call-lutnicks-comments-insulting Today – The Main Event has arrived: Powell speaks (10 ET) at the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Why should the Fed cut rates when the evidence shows that inflation is accelerating and there are bubbles in US stocks and cryptocurrencies? Due to the inflationary data of the past two weeks, industry warnings about looming tariff inflation, and the investigation into Lisa Cook, we’d guess that Team Powell digs in against DJT/ rate cuts. ESUs fell 14.00 and NQUs fell 71.50 on China’s H20 buying halt by 20:18 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6261; 100-day MA: 5953; 150-day MA: 5935; 200-day MA: 5961 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,061; 100-day MA: 42,596; 150-day MA: 42,860; 200-day MA: 43,015 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6370.17 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6111.64 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6334.59 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6419.93 triggers a buy signal Prosecutors secured evidence Comey authorized classified leaks, but declined charges Declassified bombshell FBI memo undercuts Comey’s testimony to Congress and opens door to new conspiracy probe (Just before the 2016 Election; Obama Administration historically corrupt!) https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/exclusive-prosecutors-secured-evidence-comey-authorized-classified IRS began criminal probe into Clinton Foundation in 2019 but then suddenly stopped, memos show Was a major investigation derailed? “Can’t talk about the CF,” an IRS memo states in recounting how IRS agents suddenly cut off contact with whistleblowers… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/we-cant-talk-about-clinton-foundation-new-memos-show-irs-inquiry-was @Real_RobN: King Solomon Reporting: The protection racket surrounding Democrats—deliberately REDACTED as part of a cover-up—is about to be UNREDACTED, soon as tomorrow. “There was protection racket that was around Democrats, whether it was Hillary and Bill Clinton or Joe Biden or Hunter Biden. We keep seeing federal agents being denied the right to pursue normal criminal investigations when it came to Democrats. “I believe because of the good work of Kash Patel and Pam Bondi, we’re gonna get to see what’s behind those redactions. I think it’s gonna shock people. I think we’re gonna see some pretty clear evidence of what the lieutenants working for James Comey were told to do. I think when people see it tomorrow, they’ll get a real shock of just how much evidence the government had and didn’t pursue.” https://x.com/Real_RobN/status/1958390185491911105 GOP Senators Grassley and Johnson: “We have obtained additional Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) communications through legally protected whistleblower disclosures that show a conspiracy among anti-Trump FBI agents and prosecutors in setting up and advancing the Arctic Frost investigation. As we have explained in our previous correspondence, Arctic Frost was the codename for the investigation that ultimately became Jack Smith’s elector case against President Donald Trump.” https://x.com/Real_RobN/status/1958580999404888189 Joe Biden’s most defiant spokesperson (Ian Sams) trolled after admitting he only met the ex-president twice – one virtual meeting and one phone… (None in person!) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15022375/Joe-Bidens-defiant-spokesperson-trolled-admitting-met-ex-president-twice.html Appeals court tosses $515 million fraud judgement against Trump in NY fraud case Judge Arthur Engorn originally imposed a $355 million penalty as part of New York Attorney General Letitia James’s civil fraud case against the then-presidential candidate. A five-judge panel of a New York appellate court on Thursday found that a $515 million fraud judgment against President Donald Trump was unconstitutional and violated the Eighth Amendment’s prohibitions on excessive fines… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/appeals-court-tosses-515-million-fraud-judgement-against-trump-ny-fraud-case Peter Navarro: Time to Investigate the FBI Agent Who Tried to Take Down Trump and Me Whistleblowers allege Walter Giardina told colleagues the Steele dossier was “corroborated” even though its most explosive claims were unverified — and later proved false… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/08/20/exclusive-peter-navarro-time-to-investigate-the-fbi-agent-who-tried-to-take-down-trump-and-me/ California resident tests positive for plague after camping near Lake Tahoe (Good Newsom ad!) https://globalnews.ca/news/11343767/plague-california-lake-tahoe-flea/ Ex-Adams aide allegedly tried to give reporter a wad of cash hidden in a potato chip bag Winnie Greco, a longtime Adams ally, is accused of trying to give a reporter from THE CITY, a New York City-based publication, a wad of cash hidden in a bag of Herr’s Sour Cream & Onion ripple potato chips. The publication said the incident occurred after a campaign event in Harlem on Wednesday… Greco’s attorney, Steven Brill, denied the act was “nefarious,” saying that it was a Chinese custom to give money to others as a sign of “gratitude and friendship,” though he did not explain why it was hidden in a bag of chips… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-adams-aide-allegedly-tried-give-reporter-wad-cash-hidden-potato-chip-bag Second City Cop on Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson… has been hospitalized for approximately 40 panic attacks this year alone. Awhile back Brandon started the CARE Program to help mitigate the Mental Health Crisis by having a special team staffed by hand chosen personnel to strictly handle these types of calls… Turns out they actually do nothing all day and at least one of those vans follows around Brandon AT ALL TIMES. These vans are staffed with CFD EMS personnel … Once he gets admitted, to avoid a paper trail, gets registered as a John DOE, but still uses his actual birthdate… https://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/ Chicago mayor says applicants for flood relief need not reveal if they’re in the US illegally https://t.co/QIepbovigS Progressive Chicago pol (Alderwoman) Stephanie Coleman accused of ‘prancing’ around Nashville as home district flooded in storms: ‘Tiffany Henyard vibes’ https://trib.al/YdSvtks | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Wild Brawl Breaks Out On Carnival Cruise ‘Over Chicken Tenders’
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 07:45 AM
It was anything but smooth sailing aboard the Carnival Sunshine when a massive brawl broke out between furious passengers around 2AM Monday – and the whole thing allegedly started over chicken tenders.
Disturbing footage captured by Bronx content creator Mike Terra shows about two dozen passengers trading blows, tumbling to the floor, and hurling shoes across the deck as shocked onlookers screamed for security.
“Where the fuck is security?!” one frantic bystander yells in the clip as chaos erupts around them.
In the footage, multiple Carnival security officers, appearing quite fatigued, can be seen desperately trying to separate the combatants – but one overwhelmed guard can even be seen backing away and calling for backup as the brawl spiraled out of control.
“Over chicken tenders is crazy!” said Terra, who posted the now-viral video to Instagram (which won’t embed, sorry Mike):
He later clarified that while the viral rumor pegged the fight on a late-night food line dispute, the situation may have been “more” than just chicken tenders – though the exact spark remains unclear.
“We weren’t close enough to know why [the fight] really started, we just knew they were in line for food,” Terra told The Post.
Terra joked about the Carnival cruise line’s reputation, writing on Instagram; “I always hear Carnival is ghetto/ratchet … I been cruising for years but this my 1st time seeing some action on a ship I was on,” he wrote, adding: “YNs was tripping.”
What are YNs?
end
FBI Raids Maryland Home Of John Bolton As Patel Says “NO ONE Is Above The Law”
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 08:20 AM
In a bombshell of a development, federal agents conducted a raid on the Maryland residence of former National Security Advisor John Bolton on Friday morning, according to various breaking sources.
One source connected to the investigation has described that the search was aimed at locating potentially classified documents that authorities suspect Bolton may still have in his possession.
There are no indicators as of yet that Bolton, who was Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, has been arrested or taken into custody.
“NO ONE is above the law,” FBI Director Kash Patel posted to X Friday morning, but without giving direct reference to the Bolton house raid. “FBI agents on mission.”
According to NY Post, which first revealed the raid:
Federal agents went to Bolton’s house in Bethesda, Md., at 7 a.m. in an investigation ordered by FBI Director Kash Patel, a Trump administration official told The Post.
…The probe — which is said to involve classified documents — was first launched years ago, but the Biden administration shut it down “for political reasons,” according to a senior US official.
The FBI are reportedly sorting through papers and boxes:
Trump has been a longtime fierce critic of Bolton, after Bolton had long ago started going after Trump. Just this week, Bolton was on CNN and prime news shows blasting Trump’s dealings with Putin and the Ukraine negotiations.
“I don’t think there’s a peace deal anywhere in the near future,” he said while criticizing the commander-in-chief’s tactics while recently speaking to CNN.
Back in January Bolton had been among former top officials, and Trump adversaries, to get their costly security protections stripped.
Axios also recalls that Bolton wrote in a foreword to his memoir that was published last year the words: “a mountain of facts demonstrates that Trump is unfit to be President.”
Publication of the book had been delayed so that the White House could review its content for any potential security breaches or disclosure of sensitive information.
Mainstream media is being quick to suggest the house raid is an act of retribution. “Bolton was vocal in his criticism of the president after working in the first Trump administration. Trump has aggressively used the power of the presidency to punish political foes,” Axios observes.
END
Trump ‘Will Fire Cook’ If She Doesn’t Resign After Pulte Drops New Receipts
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 10:10 AM
Update: President Trump just told reporters in Washington DC that he’ll fire Cook if she doesn’t resign.
Developing…
* * *
END
Judge Declares Alina Habba’s Roles As US Attorney For New Jersey ‘Unlawful’
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 01:20 PM
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A federal judge on Thursday found that Alina Habba, a former attorney to President Donald Trump, has been unlawfully serving as the top federal prosecutor in New Jersey since July.
“Faced with the question of whether Ms. Habba is lawfully performing the functions and duties of the office of the United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey, I conclude that she is not,” Judge Matthew Brann of the Middle District of Pennsylvania wrote in a 77-page opinion.
“And because she is not currently qualified to exercise the functions and duties of the office in an acting capacity, she must be disqualified from participating in any ongoing cases,” Brann said.
Trump appointed Habba in March as interim U.S. attorney, a role limited to 120 days unless extended by a vote of the district’s judges. When Habba’s term expired in July, the judges opted to replace her with her second-in-command, Desiree Grace. The Justice Department responded by firing Grace and reinstalling Habba, this time designating her as “Special Attorney to the Attorney General.”
By law, interim U.S. attorneys may serve only 120 days before district judges either appoint a temporary successor or the Senate confirms the administration’s nominee. If neither happens, the office’s first assistant may temporarily assume the role. In New Jersey, that would have been Grace, but her removal cleared the way for Habba, now the most senior official in the office, to stay in charge.
The Trump administration took this unusual maneuver as Democrats continue to block the president’s U.S. attorney nominees from getting a full Senate vote. While the administration has extended several interim appointments by sidestepping Senate confirmation and judicial appointment, Habba’s is so far the only one to face a formal legal challenge.
The challenge was brought by three criminal defendants in New Jersey, who argued that Habba lacked legal authority to prosecute them after her 120-day interim appointment ended in July. They asked the court to throw out their indictments, claiming that any case filed under her leadership was invalid.
Brann agreed that Habba had no legal authority but declined to dismiss those charges. Instead, he ruled that anyone who prosecutes them “under the supervision or authority of Ms. Habba” would be subject to disqualification, and that any prosecutorial actions she has made since July 1 should be declared voided.
The case was reassigned to Brann after Michael A. Chagares, chief judge of the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, ordered it moved out of the District of New Jersey. In a brief, one-sentence directive, Chagares said the trial was being transferred to the Middle District of Pennsylvania “in the public interest,” offering no further explanation.
Anticipating an appeal, Brann stayed his ruling and allowed Habba to remain in place while higher courts review the matter.
The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment by publication time. It has argued that the president has broad discretion to decide who leads U.S. attorney offices.
“The President has made clear that he will not permit anyone other than Ms. Habba to fill the current vacancy in the office of the United States Attorney on a temporary basis. That is his prerogative; this Court cannot second-guess it,” the department wrote in a court filing.
Shortly after Habba took office, she opened an investigation into New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy over the state’s immigration policies. No charges have been filed so far in connection with the inquiry.
In May, her office charged Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) with assaulting federal officers while McIver and two other lawmakers were conducting a “congressional oversight inspection” at an immigration detention center in Newark. Prosecutors allege that McIver tried to block the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who had been barred by federal agents from joining the delegation.
McIver has denied wrongdoing and is seeking dismissal of the case.
Habba’s office also charged Baraka with trespassing, but later dropped the case.
Habba’s office did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.
END
BOLTON:
Trump On ‘Lowlife, Unpatriotic’ Bolton: ‘Going To Find Out’ If He Leaked Classified Info
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 12:19 PM
Update(1418ET): President Trump’s first comments since the early morning FBI raid on John Bolton’s Maryland home and D.C. office haven’t disappointed. Trump made clear he’s no fan, but that he didn’t personally get involved in the crackdown over allegations of mishandling or keeping classified documents.
“I’m not a fan of John Bolton. He’s a real sort of lowlife… I know nothing about it,” the president said of his own former national security adviser from the first term, who he’s long described suffers major Trump derangement syndrome.
Trump repeated that he tries to “stay out of that stuff” and that he “purposefully” didn’t want to get involved when commenting on the morning raid on Bolton’s home. The mainstream media has been quick to assume this must be a politically-motivated action against Bolton coming from the top of the administration:
“I know nothing about it. I just saw it this morning. I tell Pam [Bondi], and I tell the group, I don’t want to know about it. You have to do what you have to do,” Trump said.
“He is not a smart guy. But he could be a very unpatriotic guy. We’re going to find out,” Trump said.
The president then noted that his own Mar-a-Lago estate got raided in 2022, over the handling of presidential and classified documents: “They went through everything you can imagine,” Trump said.
CNN has reported the following new confirmation as follows: “The FBI conducted a court-authorized search at former national security adviser John Bolton’s home and office as part of a renewed investigation into whether he disclosed classified information in his 2020 book, according to two people familiar with the matter.”
And more: “CNN observed FBI personnel at Bolton’s house in the Washington, DC, area on Friday morning. They were seen speaking to a person on the porch of the house, and at least four to six agents were seen going inside. Some of the agents took bags out of the vehicles to bring inside, but nothing was seen coming out of the residence.”
The two have traded barbs for years, with Trump also highlighting that Bolton is a ‘sick’ neocon and many other epithets:
“Many of the ridiculous statements he attributes to me were never made, pure fiction,” Trump said in a social media post June 18, 2020. “Just trying to get even for firing him like the sick puppy he is!”
And there was this memorable one:
“Wacko John Bolton’s ‘exceedingly tedious’(New York Times) book is made up of lies & fake stories. Said all good about me, in print, until the day I fired him,” Trump said in a separate social media post on June 18, 2020. “A disgruntled boring fool who only wanted to go to war. Never had a clue, was ostracized & happily dumped. What a dope!“
* * *
In a bombshell of a development, federal agents conducted a raid on the Maryland residence of former National Security Advisor John Bolton on Friday morning, according to various breaking sources.
One source connected to the investigation has described that the search was aimed at locating potentially classified documents that authorities suspect Bolton may still have in his possession. There are reports that his D.C. office was also raided and searched.
There are no indicators as of yet that Bolton, who was Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, has been arrested or taken into custody.
“NO ONE is above the law,” FBI Director Kash Patel posted to X Friday morning, but without giving direct reference to the Bolton house raid. “FBI agents on mission.”
According to NY Post, which first revealed the raid:
Federal agents went to Bolton’s house in Bethesda, Md., at 7 a.m. in an investigation ordered by FBI Director Kash Patel, a Trump administration official told The Post.
…The probe — which is said to involve classified documents — was first launched years ago, but the Biden administration shut it down “for political reasons,” according to a senior US official.
The FBI are reportedly sorting through papers and boxes:
Trump has been a longtime fierce critic of Bolton, after Bolton had long ago started going after Trump. Just this week, Bolton was on CNN and prime news shows blasting Trump’s dealings with Putin and the Ukraine negotiations.
“I don’t think there’s a peace deal anywhere in the near future,” he said while criticizing the commander-in-chief’s tactics while recently speaking to CNN.
Back in January Bolton had been among former top officials, and Trump adversaries, to get their costly security protections stripped.
Axios also recalls that Bolton wrote in a foreword to his memoir that was published last year the words: “a mountain of facts demonstrates that Trump is unfit to be President.”
Publication of the book had been delayed so that the White House could review its content for any potential security breaches or disclosure of sensitive information.
Mainstream media is being quick to suggest the house raid is an act of retribution. “Bolton was vocal in his criticism of the president after working in the first Trump administration. Trump has aggressively used the power of the presidency to punish political foes,” Axios observes.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU MONDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
