We now enter options expiry week for our gold and silver contracts.
Comex expiry: tomorrow aug 26//and OTC /London LBMA august 29.
THIS IS A FIRST FOR COMEX HISTORY: CME CANNOT DELIVER THE FINAL COMEX GOLD AND SILVER NUMBERS. I GUESS THEY HAD GREAT DIFFICULTY FUDGING THE NUMBERS
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 5
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 1
323 C HSBC 1
905 C ADM 5
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 6 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 600 OZ or 0.01866 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,119 contracts for 3,311,900 OR 103.013 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1779 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.895 million oz
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 35.545 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.950 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 45..3497 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 105.897 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS) +10.4932 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 125.499 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 144.36 TONNES GETTING A LITTLE LARGER THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 1636 CONTRACTS OI TO 161,685 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 950 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 950 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 950 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1636 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 950 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2586 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.94 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.930 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.94 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 57.80 PTS OR 1.51%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.94%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 174.53 PTS OR 0.41% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1565 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1596/ Oil UP TO 64.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1565 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1596 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,081 CONTRACTS TO 444,179 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $35.35 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2640). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //FRIDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 12,721 CONTRACTS (OR 39.56 TONNES).THEN WITH MUCH SHOCK WE HAD A MASSIVE 2640 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FRIDAY FOR 292,800 OZ OR 9.107 TONNES OF GOLD. EITHER THE FRBNY OR THE BANK OF ENGLAND WERE VERY BUSY YESTERDAY AS THEY NEEDED TO REPLACE THE GOLD THEY LOANED OUT TO BULLION BANKS. THE HIGH NUMBER OF CONTRACTS ISSUED ON EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THEM!@!!!!!
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY:
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST;
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AUGUST 7 THE CME ANNOUNCED MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR AUGUST OF A MONSTER 1750 CONTRACTS FOR 175,000 OZ OR (5.4432 TONNES OF GOLD, THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD!!. WITH ALL THE CHAOS AT THE COMEX IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AUG 10 TOTALLING 776 CONTRACTS OR 77,600 OZ (2.418 TONNES).MUCH TO MY ANGER LAST WEEK, THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 848 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 84,800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES.
NOW WE REACH TODAY WERE THE CME ISSUED ITS 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A MASSIVE 2928 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 292800 OZ OR 9.107 TONNES.
THUS THE TOTAL FOR AUGUST IS 6302 CONTRACTS OR 630,200OZ OR 19.6019 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS. THE RECEPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY NOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND AS WE HAVE JUST LEARNED THAT THE FRBNY HAS RETURNED ONLY 14,000 OZ AS THEIR LOANS TO THE BIS REMAIN AT 34+ TONNES.(JULY 31 FIGURES). BUT IT COULD ALSO BE THE FRBNY AS URGENCY TO RETURN THAT GOLD MAY HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE BIS. IT SEEMS NOW THAT EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBY ARE IN QUITE A HURRY TO GET ITS GOLD BACK!! (AND THEY ARE THE PROBABLE OWNERS OF THOSE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS). THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 4 ISSUANCES FOR A MONSTER 6302 CONTRACTS OR 630,200 OZ ( 19.6019 TONNES), THE HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,721 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1082 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE AT MONTH END WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED THREE WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 45.3487 TONNES +19.6019 TONNES EX FOR RISK (4 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 125.499 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 237 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE 45.3487 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW TODAY’S AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 125.499 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2640 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2640 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2640 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//FRIDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS WILL APPEAR FOR SURE ON THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST AND MAYBE IT WILL BEGIN STARTING TODAY AUGUST 25
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 1082 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING;
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S FIRST THREE ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.4932 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.5832TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THURSDAY’S AUG 7 HUGE 5.4432 EXCHANGE FOR RISK, SATURDAY’S//MONDAY AUG 10 STRONG 776 CONTRACT ISSUANCE (77600 OZ) FOR 2.413 TONNES AND THEN WEDNESDAY.S AUGUST 12 FOR 2.637 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE: TOTAL EX FOR RISK AUGUST = 19.6019 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
105.897 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
EQUALS
125.499 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $35.35/ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION (SAVING IT TODAY, MONDAY AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES, IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING!!
SATURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/ SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE:
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: FOUR SO FAR, AUGUST 7 THROUGH AUG 12 AT 3374 CONTRACTS FOR 337,400 OZ AND FINALLY AUGUST 25: 9.107 TONNES OF GOLD: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 19.6019 TONNES, THE HIGHEST EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!
THUS 105.897 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS) + 19.6019 TONNES = 125.499 TONNES.
ANALYSIS AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 39.56 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE TO WHICH WE ADD LAST AUG 8 RECORD BREAKING QUEUE JUMP OF 10.8775 TONNES OF GOLD ON TOP OF AUG 12: 1.7604 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WEDNESDAY;S AUG 13 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.527 TONNES AND THEN THURSDAY AUG 14 A HUGE 2.463 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND FRIDAY;S AUG 15 QUEUE JUMP OF .7030 TONNES AND THEN SATURDAY’S 1.617 TONNE QUEUE JUMP AND FINALLY TUESDAY’S AUG 19: 1.058 QUEUE JUMP THEN THURSDAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.263 TONNES , AND THEN FRIDAY;S 0.1275 QUEUE JUMP AND THEN TODAY’S 1.502 TONNES TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 19.6019 TONNES FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 125.499 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $35.35
WE HAD A MASSIVE XXXX CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,721 CONTRACTS OR 1,272,100 0Z (39.561 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY not available contracts// xxxx//everybody vacating the comex???
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
AUGUST 25 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entry i) out of Brinks 383.660 oz (12 kilobars) total withdrawal 383.660 oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRY i) Into Brinks 353.660 oz (11 kilobars) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 6 notice(s) 600 OZ 0.01866 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 927 contracts 92700 OZ 2.883 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 33,119 notices 3,311,900 oz 103.013 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits:
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into Brinks 353.660 oz
(11 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
1 entry
i) out of Brinks 383.660 oz
(12 kilobars)
total withdrawal 383.660 oz
adjustments: 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 933 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 446 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 63 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 59 CONTRACTS OR 5900 OZ OF GOLD (1.5832 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AND THEIR APPETITE FOR THIS GOLD IS UNABATED!
SEPT LOST 50 CONTRACTS TO 4182. SEPTEMBER BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH STANDING FOR GOLD
OCTOBER GAINED 76 CONTRACTS UP TO 60,485
We had 6 contracts filed for today representing 600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,119 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 933 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,404,600 OZ OR 105.897 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR ISSUANCES OF 19.6019 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/AUG 7 , 11 12TH AND.25TH = 125.499 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (33,119 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (933 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz) which equals 3,404,600 OZ OR 105.897 TONNES + 19.6019 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 125.499 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 125.499TONNES WHICH IS A MONSTER FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. AND THIS RUNS COUNTER INTUATIVE TO OUR CONSTANT RAIDING THIS WEEK
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,040,391.130 oz 63.46 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,563,779.856 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,295,507.280 or 662.37 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,268,272.576 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,255,116 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 598.91 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE AUGUST 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
AUGUST 25 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries: i) Out of Delaware: 8022.30 oz ii) Out lf Loomis: 91,115.09 oz total withdrawal 99,137.470 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY 1 deposit into dealer accounts i) Into the dealer Brinks 394,489.600 oz total deposit 394,489.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into Delaware 1057.000 oz total deposit: 1057.000 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 2 CONTRACT(S) (10,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3 contracts (0.015 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1779 Contracts (8.895 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
1 ENTRY
i) Into the dealer Brinks 394,489.600 oz
total deposit 394,489.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into Delaware 1057.000 oz
total deposit: 1057.000 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries:
i) Out of Delaware: 8022.30 oz
ii) Out lf Loomis: 91,115.09 oz
total withdrawal 99,137.470 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1
i) Out of Brinks; customer to dealer: 3840.100 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 190.670 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 508.486 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 5 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 55 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 57 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX HAVING UNDERGONE A QUEUE JUMP AS THESE GUYS ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 7142 CONTRACTS UP TO 46,029 CONTRACTS. SEPT BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR DELIVERY IN SILVER
OCTOBER GAINED 133 CONTRACTS TO 628
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 or 10,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 70,113 good//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1779 X5,000 oz = 8.895 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (5) AND the number of notices served upon today (2 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (1779) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(5) minus number of notices served upon today (2)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 8.950 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 8.950 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 190.670 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/508.486 million. 41.33%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 956.77 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.546 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/S
PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
Sterling’s inescapable debt trap
Rising gilt yields will force chancellor Reeves’ hand before her autumn statement in end-September or early October. It’s a debt trap from which politics denies a solution.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 24∙Paid |
The situation is so dire that some prescient economists are pointing out the dangers of a situation developing which mirrors the sterling crisis in 1976, when the IMF was called in. This morning’s Sunday Telegraph headline was “Reeves heading for IMF bailout”, quoting the mounting concerns of several leading economists.
Clearly, things are hotting up, being the backdrop to the autumn statement. In this article, I outline the situation for my paid subscribers, and why the comparison with 1976 is so apt. But with other G7 nations in similar positions, I would question the ability of the IMF to bail Britain out this time.
In common with long-dated government bonds in other major currencies, long gilt yields continue to rise despite expectations of lower interest rates. From the chart above, it is clear that there is sufficient bearish momentum in gilt prices to drive yields even higher.
It adds to the chancellor’s dilemma as she prepares her autumn statement for which a date has yet to be set but is expected in about 6—7 weeks’ time. Debt interest is already a heavy and rising burden on her finances, as are the Treasury’s commitment to underwrite bond losses on the Bank of England’s balance sheet.
Will bond yields continue to rise before the autumn statement, even to the point of developing into a sterling crisis? And what can Reeves do to stabilise the situation?
As Catherine McBride points out in her Substack posting, the UK is in a doom loop, whereby government activity stifles the economy leading to a debt spiral. More specifically, virtually every element of Reeve’s first budget turns out to be counterproductive. High earners and the wealthy are fleeing Britain rather than paying higher taxes. The increase in minimum wages and employer’s rate of payment on national insurance, which is an additional cost on employment has resulted in job openings being cut and small businesses closing in droves.
Forget the statistics: Outside London, the economy is in a deepening recession. And in London, shoplifting gangs operate, and tourists have their mobiles and watches stolen often at knifepoint, while police resources are tied up ensuring free speech is quashed.
The residential property market has ground to a halt, so anticipated capital gains tax receipts are not materialising: the list goes on. Despite the evidence that higher and extra taxes result in lower revenue, further tax rises are expected to be announced in the autumn statement. However, the Treasury will be acutely aware of tax shortfalls and of the additional expenses of higher salaries for government employees announced in Reeve’s first budget.
Clearly, if she attempts to cover a soaring budget deficit with yet higher taxes, she will end up with even less revenue. Besides raiding peoples savings, the solution is to cut public spending, which she attempted and failed at the beginning of July. The Parliamentary Labour Party refused to support welfare cuts, and clearly, spending ministers also refuse to accept departmental cuts. She is cornered, which was evident in the emotional toll on her at Prime Minister’s Questions seven weeks ago.
As the gilt market begins to focus on the political and tax-raising impossibilities ahead of the autumn statement, dealers will surely conclude that the UK is indeed in a doom loop, with the budget soaring out of control and debt issuance with it. And for those less focused on these issues, rising long bond yields in the other major currencies are a discouraging background.
Britain’s debt problem is exacerbated by high levels of foreign ownership of gilts, with hedge funds accounting for about 30% of gilts trading, borrowing £77bn in repos concentrating in a small number of funds, according to the Bank of England. The bank has flagged concerns that forced liquidation by concentrated hands could lead to a market crisis.
These hedge funds might have a neutral sterling position, but their repo position means they are long of duration: in other words, they are financing long gilt positions by borrowing cash. The fact that gilt prices are falling again will make these trades unprofitable, leading to the crisis expected by the Bank of England.
A debt crisis leads to interest rates that threaten to rise with no ceiling, in a repeat of the conditions seen during the last far-left labour government in the mid-seventies; a crisis which undermines the currency as well.
The 1976 sterling crisis
According to the Bank of England, in the 1975—1976 fiscal year to April, government debt increased by 21% and by 37% including the previous year (1973—1974). The increase in 1975—1976 was nearly double the largest previous rise since 1958. In April 1976, including central monetary institutions the Bank estimated foreign ownership of gilts and T-bills at 11.7% of the total.[i]
The deterioration in fiscal conditions was reflected in a growing run on sterling from mid-1975 onwards, as shown in the FRED chart above. The cost of funding was already increasing, with coupons rising to new highs with the issue in December 1975 of 13 ¼% Treasury Loan 1997.
It should be noted that exchange controls existed at that time, which for UK residents meant no escape from sterling weakness without paying a hefty dollar premium. Selling was down to international holders of gilts, foreign banks based in London and multinational corporations with sterling balances. Repo markets did not exist at that time which meant that currency speculation and interest rate arbitrage were not as significant factors as they are today.
The sterling crisis was obviously driven by the government’s debt crisis, leading to a run on the Bank’s foreign reserves, and the loss of international confidence in the government’s policies. Against this deteriorating background, domestic institutions refused to buy gilts, and in October 1976, the bank raised interest rates to 15% but institutions still refused to buy.
In a panic, Britain applied to the IMF for a $3.9bn (£2.25bn) loan at end-September. In November, an IMF delegation arrived secretly to assess and negotiate terms. Consequently, the government had to abandon its socialist shibboleths and restore the nation’s finances.
The IMF’s medicine worked, and then Britain had a stroke of luck. In 1976, North Sea oil production began to be profitable, with major fields such as Brent and Forties coming on stream. Sterling went from basket case to petro-currency, and sterling recovered all of its losses by the end of the decade.
Today, there are differences compared with 1975—1976, but the problems are similar, with a far-left government unable to cut public spending while penalising the tax base. The only solution was outside discipline in the form of the IMF insisting on preconditions for its loan. And today, sterling has yet to reflect what is clearly a forthcoming funding crisis.
There are no exchange controls today, so not only will foreign owners of sterling be exposed, but UK hedge funds and even less speculating institutions are likely to be sellers. The bear’s prize could well be to see sterling drop to test the all-time lows at $1.05—$1.10, first seen in February 1985 when it hit $1.04 driven by a strong dollar, and again in September 2022 for the same reason.
Today, the dollar is weak as well, so sterling returning to those levels, like in 1976, would be entirely due to a sterling crisis. And even if the gold/dollar rate holds at $3350, that would take gold in sterling to £3200. However, the dollar itself is falling relative to gold so in the coming months the sterling/gold rate could be significantly higher.
Gold is almost certainly the best escape from the UK’s rapidly developing funding and sterling crisis.
[i] See Bank of England’s Q4 quarterly bulletin, 1976
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 237
5. COMMODITY REPORT.LUMBER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 57.80 PTS OR 1.51%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.94%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 174.53 PTS OR 0.41% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1565 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1596/ Oil UP TO 64.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 68.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1565 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1596 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1565
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1596
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.84%
2. Nikkei closed UP 174.53 PTS OR 0.41%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.81 EURO FALLS TO 1.1595 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.624//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.325…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7684Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.617 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.351
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.450
3j Gold at $3369.20 Silver at: 38.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 4 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.61
3m oil (WTI) into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.60/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.625% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8021 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.93.82 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.277 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.906 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.711 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.000
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6900 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.457UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.965 UP 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Powell Dovish Pivot Euphoria Fades
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 08:35 AM
Markets are mixed this morning, with US stock futures ticking lower as euphoria over the prospect of a Fed rate cut fizzling out after Friday’s rally. Attention turns to one of the biggest market tests ahead of the central bank’s September policy meeting: Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are down 0.3% after the best day since May and the index finishing the week 2pts below its all time high. Media are pointing to a lack of Fed consensus to cut based on comments from Goolsbee / Musalem. Pre-market Mag7 names are all lower with Defensives outperforming Cyclicals, reversing some of the gains from Friday. Intel shares rose in premarket trading after the US agreed to take a 10% stake in the chip maker. The yield curve is bear steepening and the USD is strengthening. Commodities are rallying led by Energy. The keys this week are NVDA earnings but also a number of macro data releases that can clarify the US econ growth situation, e.g., Durable / Cap Goods, Consumer Confidence, regional Fed activity indicators, jobless data, PCE, and Personal Income / Spending.Looking at today’s calendar, we get new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Fed Voter Williams and non-voter Logan are also scheduled to speak.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -0.1%, Alphabet -0.1%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Meta -0.4%, Tesla -0.5%, Amazon -0.6%).
- Furniture stocks are reacting after President Trump announced a “major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States.” Arhaus (ARHS) -3%, Ethan Allen (ETD) +3%, RH (RH) -7%, Wayfair
-6% - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) falls 3% after BofA Global Research cut the recommendation on the apparel retailer to underperform amid tariff pressures on profitability.
- Axogen (AXGN) drops 14% after the FDA extended its review its Biologics License Application for Avance Nerve Graft by three months, pushing the decision date to Dec. 5.
- Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) rises 6% after Raymond James raised the recommendation to strong buy from outperform, citing optimism about an investigational therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a rare muscle disease.
- Intel (INTC) shares rose in premarket trading after the US agreed to take a 10% stake in the chip maker.
- Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is down 4% after after the announcement of a deal to buy JDE Peet’s NV for $18.4 billion in an overhaul that will see it split the coffee business from other beverage operations only a few years after a deal that combined them.
- PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) surges 6% after company behind the popular Temu platform reported net income and adjusted earnings per American depositary receipts that beat the average analyst estimates.
- Verint Systems Inc (VRNT) jumps 12% after Bloomberg reported that buyout firm Thoma Bravo is nearing a deal to acquire the call center software maker.
Overnight, developments were limited with London out for their Summer Bank Holiday. Over the weekend, Fed voter Musalem told Reuters that more data is needed to decide whether a September rate cut is warranted. In China, Shanghai eased home-buying rules to enable eligible residents, including those from outside Shanghai, to now buy an unlimited number of homes in the outer suburbs.
Sentiment had been weak heading into Friday, with the S&P 500 falling for five straight sessions, its longest losing streak since January, as Wall Street pared bets that the Fed was about to reduce borrowing costs. Powell’s comments halted those concerns, sending the equity benchmark soaring more than 1.5% to notch a third straight weekly advance, with last month’s record high in sight. A plunge in short-end Treasury rates sent the US yield curve to its steepest since 2021 on Friday.
“The limited move in long-dated yields has led to a steepening in the curve, perhaps for fear that the Fed is prioritizing the jobs market, while letting inflation run hot above the 2% target,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury Partners Ltd. “Rising fears surrounding Federal Reserve independence, and President Trump’s influence on monetary policy, are not exactly helping matters.
Traders now see an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut next month after Powell signaled that the central bank may ease before inflation fully returns to target amid a softening hiring environment. That optimism faces key tests this week, including Nvidia Corp.’s results on Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred price gauge on Friday. Traders are hoping Nvidia results can soothe fears about AI spending and effectively confirm that the stock market’s latest rally isn’t just a technology bubble. Nvidia’s size — it has the biggest weighting in the S&P 500 at almost 8% — and its position at the center of AI development have made it a bellwether of the broader market. The tech giant’s chips are everywhere, with 40% of its revenue coming from tech giants including Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.
Powell, in what was likely his final Jackson Hole speech at the helm of the Fed, detailed the cloudy signals coming from the economy. While the effect of tariffs on prices is now visible, there are still questions about whether that will reignite inflation in a more persistent way, he said. He called the labor market’s current status — with both falling demand for, and declining supply of workers — “curious.”
“It’s clear that Fed is prioritizing the job weakness concern over inflation and that’s their stance now,” said Jin Yuejue, Hong Kong-based multi-asset solutions investment specialist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Still, the signal from the speech is “quite clear” that the Fed is ready to pivot, she said.
“The path ahead is not so straightforward,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. “‘While easier monetary policy is usually welcomed by markets, the context also matters and there remains significant uncertainty regarding the macro and corporate environments.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped about 0.2% after closing just short of an all-time high Friday. Liquidity was lower than usual, with UK markets closed for a holiday. Danish renewable-energy company Orsted A/S plunged after President Donald Trump’s administration halted construction on an almost-finished offshore wind farm. JDE Peet’s soared on the Keurig Dr Pepper takeover offer. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Orsted shares fall as much as 19% to a record low, after the Trump administration halted work on the Danish firm’s offshore wind farm. European wind energy peers also decline
- Thule falls as much as 6.4%, the most since May, after SEB cut its recommendation for the Swedish outdoor equipment maker to sell from hold with a Street-low price target of SEK225. The analyst cited swiftly rising costs and a lack of volume growth
- Valneva shares plunge 26%, the most since June 2022, after the French vaccine maker’s shot for a mosquito-borne disease was suspended in the US on an investigation into its adverse effects among older patients
- SBB drops as much as 7.7%, most since July, after Pareto Securities reiterates its sell rating and street-low price target of SEK2.8, saying core challenges remain for the Swedish landlord even as the country’s property market stabilizes and interest rates decline
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, boosted by Chinese chip stocks and continued optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent providing the biggest boosts to the benchmark. Most major equity indexes were in the green, with Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong leading the gains in the region. China’s stock rally extended, partly as investor sentiment on the outlook for the nation’s chip sector strengthened. The STAR 50 Index rallied 3.2% in China, extending last week’s 13% surge, while the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index gained 2.1% to the highest since July 2022. Positive news such as DeepSeek’s new model update, customized to work with next-generation Chinese-made AI chips, has helped propel the rally.
“Asian equities across the board will certainly be boosted if expectations of a cut rise further as the September FOMC approaches,” said Gerald Gan, deputy chief investment officer at Reed Capital.
A gauge of the dollar was steady after posting its third straight weekly loss. The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points and bonds in Europe fell, with yields on German bunds climbing five basis points. The TSY yield curve continues to steepen, extending the trend from Friday, when UST advance following Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was the biggest since the Aug. 1 rally sparked by weak employment data.
In commodities, WTI crude futures are rose 0.6% to $64.04, while gold dips to $3,366.
The US economic data calendar includes July Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30 a.m.), July new home sales (10 a.m.) and August Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30 a.m.); Fed speaker slate also includes Dallas Fed President Logan (3:15 p.m.) and New York Fed President Williams at 7:15 p.m.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
- DAX -0.4%
- CAC 40 -0.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.26%
- VIX +0.9 points at 15.11
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1202.63
- euro -0.1% at $1.1701
- WTI crude +0.4% at $63.92/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Despite Powell’s speech, clear divisions remain among Fed officials. The St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem said he’ll need more data, Reuters reported, while Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee pointed out he’s still more concerned about the inflation side of their mandate than employment. BBG
- Investors are piling back into NY office buildings, lending billions of dollars to property developers in a sign big money managers see return to office wave as a much needed salve to the mkt. FT
- Thousands of homes in northern California and central Oregon were under evacuation orders on Sunday from wildfires. AP
- Pentagon plans a military deployment in Chicago as President Trump eyes a crackdown: WaPo
- California warns that its agricultural industry feeds the US but is now under assault from Trump’s immigration policies, creating the risk of higher prices or food shortages. NYT
- China’s financial hub of Shanghai eased home-buying rules in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property crisis. Eligible residents, including those from outside Shanghai, can now buy an unlimited number of homes in the outer suburbs, according to a statement Monday. BBG
- China is banking on artificial intelligence (AI) to become a new growth engine, and there are projections that it could add several trillion yuan to the economy by 2035 amid a national push for computing power and a unified data market. SCMP
- South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung meets Trump at the White House today. He’ll urge him to revive stalled North Korea talks and follow up on a recently signed trade deal. BBG
- German business confidence unexpectedly improved in August to the highest level since 2022, after the EU struck a trade deal with the US. BBG
- Keurig Dr Pepper will buy JDE Peet’s for $18.4 billion in cash in an effort to revive its struggling coffee business. The combined company will later separate its beverage and coffee operations, essentially reversing the 2018 deal that combined Keurig and Dr Pepper. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- US food industry groups are pushing for exemptions from US tariffs and arguing that products from fish to cucumbers cannot be affordably grown at home, according to FT.
- European Commission President Von der Leyen defended the EU-US agreement on tariffs which she said was a ‘conscious decision’ that avoided a trade war and called it a “good, if not perfect agreement”, according to euro news.
- South Korea’s President Lee said they will ultimately arrive at a reasonable trade deal with the US and he expects to discuss with US President Trump security and defence costs, as well as tariff negotiations.
- India’s Foreign Minister said trade negotiations are still going on and they have lines to maintain and defend, while he added the lines India cannot cross are the interests of farmers and small producers. Furthermore, he said India buying Russian oil was never brought up before the public announcement of tariffs and issues about buying Russian oil are not being used to target other major users such as China and the EU.
- French President Macron said he had an in-depth discussion on major international crises with South African President Ramaphosa, while they also reviewed economic and trade issues, as well as bilateral cooperation between France and South Africa.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, in which he signalled the potential for a September rate cut as he noted that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy. ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high at the open but gave back a majority of the early gains as participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but then lost steam and faded most of the early upward momentum to return to beneath the 43,000 level with headwinds from last Friday’s currency strength and with some hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole who expects a tightening job market to push up wages. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with the advances in Hong Kong led by property, mining and tech, while the mainland was also lifted after China’s State Council called for efforts to bolster overall coordination and refine implementation mechanisms of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs to better leverage their role in boosting domestic demand. Furthermore, participants digested several earnings releases and the PBoC announced last Friday to conduct CNY 600bln of 1-year MLF loans for today.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Governor Ueda said at Jackson Hole that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages, while he added that competition for workers has increased and more people are switching jobs. Ueda said they will continue to monitor the labour market developments closely and incorporate that into monetary policy. Furthermore, he said wages are now rising and labour shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues, as well as noted that the demographic shift that began in the 1980s is producing acute labour shortages and persistent upward pressure on wages.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said Japan agreed to strengthen security and economic ties with South Korea, while South Korean President Lee said they agreed on South Korea-Japan relations, which are important in a fast-changing global political landscape.
- Shanghai lifts the home buying limit in the outer suburbs effective August 26th, according to Bloomberg.
- RBNZ opened consultation on New Zealand’s capital settings for deposit takers with the review to consider whether current prudential capital requirements are set at the right level, while the central bank proposed to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZD 5mln.
- Fitch affirms India at BBB-; outlook stable.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have begun the week on the backfoot, as indices pare back some of the Powell-induced strength seen on Friday. European sectors opened mostly in the red, only a few remaining afloat including Banks, Media along with Travel & Leisure. At the bottom of the pile is Utilities due to notable losses in Orsted (-17%) after it received an offshore stop-work order from US BOEM.
Top European News
- BoE Governor Bailey said at Jackson Hole that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic, while he said the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Lagarde said at Jackson Hole that the labour market has weathered recent shocks and proved to be surprisingly resilient in the face of an inflation shock and aggressive interest rate hikes, while she also commented that central bank independence is critically important.
- ECB’s Kazaks said the central bank entered a new monetary-policy phase where officials can focus on monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its course, while he noted there is currently no need to lower rates further as inflation is at the 2% target and recent data has not signalled a marked change in the outlook since the quarterly projections in June, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Rehn said the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further after inflation reached its 2% target and with the economy performing slightly better than thought, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB rate cut talk may resume after a pause in September, should the economy continue to weaken, according to Reuters citing sources.
- German Chancellor Merz said tackling economic woes is tougher than expected and that the US’s 15% tariffs on German exports will be a burden on the German economy, according to Bloomberg.
- Fitch affirmed the UK on Friday at AA-; Outlook Stable but stated that greater global uncertainty and weaker external demand will dampen investment growth.
- Italy’s Deputy PM Tajani said he opposes Italy imposing windfall taxes on banks, while he commented that banks should pay taxes and contribute but should not be surprised or scolded, according to Bloomberg.
- Canadian PM Carney will travel to Poland, Germany and Latvia during August 25th-27th and will meet with German Chancellor Merz, while Carney will be focused on strengthening relationships with European allies and advancing cooperation in key areas.
FX
- DXY has kicked the week off slightly firmer. Gains, however, are relatively minor compared to the losses seen on Friday post-Powell, where he signalled to a September rate cut. Focus this week will turn to PCE on Thursday. Upside in DXY is currently capped by the 98 mark. If breached, the 50DMA sits at 98.06.
- After venturing as high as 1.1742 on Friday, EUR/USD has slipped below the 1.17 mark as the dollar attempts to atone for recent losses. German IFO data today saw a strong turnout for the expectations component, helping the headline print above the market consensus. That being said, the IFO President noted that “the recovery of the German economy remains weak”. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1694 thus far with interim support provided by the 50DMA at 1.1650.
- After a strong showing on Friday, the JPY rally against the USD has paused for breath. The JPY has been unable to garner any further support from comments by BoJ governor Ueda, who stated that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 147 handle after delving as low as 146.57 overnight with a current session peak at 147.52.
- GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD with UK market participants way from market. Subsequently, newsflow surrounding the UK is light aside from comments by BoE Governor Bailey, who remarked that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic. He added that the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead.
- Steady trade for the antipodes with AUD supported by a much firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate setting. For AUD this week, RBA minutes are due on deck tomorrow with monthly CPI set to hit on Wednesday.
- Barclays month-end rebalancing model: weak USD selling against most majors. Neutral vs. EUR and JPY.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1161 vs exp. 7.1551 (Prev. 7.1321).
Fixed Income
- USTs are essentially flat and trade in a very narrow 4 tick range (112-01 to 112-05), as US paper takes a breather from Friday’s significant upside following dovish remarks from the Fed Chair. From a yield perspective, there is some mild bear flattening, with the short-end making back some of Friday’s pressure.
- Bunds are trading on the backfoot and currently lower by around 38 ticks, pulling back from the upside seen on Friday. Currently trading towards the bottom-end of a 129.02 to 129.31 range; further downside will see a test of the round 129.00 mark, and below that 128.94 (the lower from Friday). From a yield perspective, the German 10yr is currently higher by 3.7bps at around 2.756%. Focus has been on the ECB over the weekend. Firstly, Reuters reported that ECB rate cut talks may resume after the September pause, should the economy continue to deteriorate. Elsewhere, President Lagarde said Europe’s labour market has remained resilient despite severe inflation shocks and aggressive rate hikes.
- Gilt futures trading is currently shut today on account of the UK’s Bank Holiday.
Commodities
- The crude complex trades with a modest positive bias on the first trading session of the week. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region which sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal. However, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said the nation’s oil exports had not been interrupted by the disruption. Aside from this, energy-specific drivers are light. WTI trades within a USD 63.53-64.03/bbl range, while Brent trades within USD 67.04-67.50/bbl.
- Precious metals trade mixed. Palladium modestly outperforms despite weakness in auto stocks, while gold is softer amid a modestly firmer dollar and a pullback from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish address on Friday. XAU/USD currently trades choppily within a USD 3,405-3,417/oz range, towards the top end of Friday’s parameters with a high at 3,425/oz.
- 3M LME trade is closed today amid the UK bank holiday.
- Iraq raised its refining capacity to 1.3mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd in 2024, according to the PM’s office.
- Libya’s NOC said it will host the first Libyan-US energy forum soon.
- Codelco said Chile’s mining regulator authorised the restart of operations at Andes Norte and Diamante divisions of the El Teniente mine.
- Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says the nation’s oil exports have not been interrupted following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Ust-Luga.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel’s military conducted an attack on the Yemeni capital of Sanaa against targets which included a military compound where the presidential palace is located, two power stations and a fuel storage site.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader said the current situation with the United States was “unsolvable” and that they will stand strongly against the US demand to make Tehran ‘obedient’, according to Reuters citing state media.
- Iran is prepared to significantly lower uranium enrichment to prevent Britain reimposing UN sanctions, according to The Telegraph.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Ukraine’s PM discussed security guarantees with US special representative Kellogg.
- US Pentagon quietly blocked Ukraine’s long-range missile strike on Russia with the US Defense Department withholding approval as the White House sought to entice Moscow to open peace talks, according to WSJ. However, it was later reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has lately been using its own weapons to hit Russia and does not consult on this with Washington.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted an exchange of POWs in which they swapped 146 POWs each.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Filiia in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, according to Interfax.
- Russian air defence forces shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Kursk nuclear power plant and a fire broke out at the plant, although there were no safety threats to people or the plant. However, the Kusk acting Governor separately commented that the Ukrainian drone attack on the nuclear power plant is a threat to nuclear safety.
- Russian air defences downed a drone flying towards Moscow. It was separately reported that Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region and that debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal.
- Norway is providing air defences worth NOK 7bln to Ukraine, which will be delivered from Germany to Ukraine, with Norway and Germany funding two patriot systems including missiles.
- Russian defence ministry says its forces captured Zaporizke in eastern Ukraine, via RIA.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korean leader Kim oversaw the firing of new air defence missiles, according to KCNA. In relevant news, South Korea confirmed it fired warning shots earlier last week at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the border between the two countries, according to the BBC.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.11, prior -0.1
- 10:00 am: Jul New Home Sales, est. 630k, prior 627k
- 10:00 am: Jul New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.48%, prior 0.6%
- 10:30 am: Aug Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -1.7, prior 0.9
Central Bank speakers
- 3:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference
2b European opening report
Stocks are a touch lower & DXY is rangebound in thin trade ahead of a busy week – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 05:10 AM
- European bourses pare some of Friday’s gains; US equity futures are mixed, with the RTY holding afloat.
- USD struggles to recoup Friday’s lost ground in a quiet start to the week; JPY underperforms despite hawkish-leaning commentary via BoJ’s Ueda.
- USTs pause for breath following Powell-induced upside, whilst Bunds move lower.
- Crude benchmarks are very modestly firmer with focus on geopolitics; XAU is on the backfoot.
- Holiday: UK Summer Bank Holiday
- Highlights include US National Activity (Jul), Comments from Fed’s Logan.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US food industry groups are pushing for exemptions from US tariffs and arguing that products from fish to cucumbers cannot be affordably grown at home, according to FT.
- European Commission President Von der Leyen defended the EU-US agreement on tariffs which she said was a ‘conscious decision’ that avoided a trade war and called it a “good, if not perfect agreement”, according to euro news.
- South Korea’s President Lee said they will ultimately arrive at a reasonable trade deal with the US and he expects to discuss with US President Trump security and defence costs, as well as tariff negotiations.
- India’s Foreign Minister said trade negotiations are still going on and they have lines to maintain and defend, while he added the lines India cannot cross are the interests of farmers and small producers. Furthermore, he said India buying Russian oil was never brought up before the public announcement of tariffs and issues about buying Russian oil are not being used to target other major users such as China and the EU.
- French President Macron said he had an in-depth discussion on major international crises with South African President Ramaphosa, while they also reviewed economic and trade issues, as well as bilateral cooperation between France and South Africa.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have begun the week on the backfoot, as indices pare back some of the Powell-induced strength seen on Friday.
- European sectors opened mostly in the red, only a few remaining afloat including Banks, Media along with Travel & Leisure. At the bottom of the pile is Utilities due to notable losses in Orsted (-17%) after it received an offshore stop-work order from US BOEM.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY U/C) are mixed, with the ES and NQ directionally following the losses in Europe, whilst the RTY holds afloat.
- Jefferies raises 2025 year-end target for S&P 500 to 6,600 (prev. saw 5,600, last closed 6,466.91).
- TSMC (2330 TT) has stopped using Chinese chipmaking equipment at its most advanced facilities to mitigate risks of facing US restrictions and subsequent supply chain disruptions, according to Nikkei sources
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY has kicked the week off slightly firmer. Gains, however, are relatively minor compared to the losses seen on Friday post-Powell, where he signalled to a September rate cut. Focus this week will turn to PCE on Thursday. Upside in DXY is currently capped by the 98 mark. If breached, the 50DMA sits at 98.06.
- After venturing as high as 1.1742 on Friday, EUR/USD has slipped below the 1.17 mark as the dollar attempts to atone for recent losses. German IFO data today saw a strong turnout for the expectations component, helping the headline print above the market consensus. That being said, the IFO President noted that “the recovery of the German economy remains weak”. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1694 thus far with interim support provided by the 50DMA at 1.1650.
- After a strong showing on Friday, the JPY rally against the USD has paused for breath. The JPY has been unable to garner any further support from comments by BoJ governor Ueda, who stated that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 147 handle after delving as low as 146.57 overnight with a current session peak at 147.52.
- GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD with UK market participants way from market. Subsequently, newsflow surrounding the UK is light aside from comments by BoE Governor Bailey, who remarked that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic. He added that the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead.
- Steady trade for the antipodes with AUD supported by a much firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate setting. For AUD this week, RBA minutes are due on deck tomorrow with monthly CPI set to hit on Wednesday.
- Barclays month-end rebalancing model: weak USD selling against most majors. Neutral vs. EUR and JPY.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1161 vs exp. 7.1551 (Prev. 7.1321).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are essentially flat and trade in a very narrow 4 tick range (112-01 to 112-05), as US paper takes a breather from Friday’s significant upside following dovish remarks from the Fed Chair. From a yield perspective, there is some mild bear flattening, with the short-end making back some of Friday’s pressure.
- Bunds are trading on the backfoot and currently lower by around 38 ticks, pulling back from the upside seen on Friday. Currently trading towards the bottom-end of a 129.02 to 129.31 range; further downside will see a test of the round 129.00 mark, and below that 128.94 (the lower from Friday). From a yield perspective, the German 10yr is currently higher by 3.7bps at around 2.756%. Focus has been on the ECB over the weekend. Firstly, Reuters reported that ECB rate cut talks may resume after the September pause, should the economy continue to deteriorate. Elsewhere, President Lagarde said Europe’s labour market has remained resilient despite severe inflation shocks and aggressive rate hikes.
- Gilt futures trading is currently shut today on account of the UK’s Bank Holiday.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- The crude complex trades with a modest positive bias on the first trading session of the week. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region which sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal. However, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said the nation’s oil exports had not been interrupted by the disruption. Aside from this, energy-specific drivers are light. WTI trades within a USD 63.53-64.03/bbl range, while Brent trades within USD 67.04-67.50/bbl.
- Precious metals trade mixed. Palladium modestly outperforms despite weakness in auto stocks, while gold is softer amid a modestly firmer dollar and a pullback from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish address on Friday. XAU/USD currently trades choppily within a USD 3,405-3,417/oz range, towards the top end of Friday’s parameters with a high at 3,425/oz.
- 3M LME trade is closed today amid the UK bank holiday.
- Iraq raised its refining capacity to 1.3mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd in 2024, according to the PM’s office.
- Libya’s NOC said it will host the first Libyan-US energy forum soon.
- Codelco said Chile’s mining regulator authorised the restart of operations at Andes Norte and Diamante divisions of the El Teniente mine.
- Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says the nation’s oil exports have not been interrupted following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Ust-Luga.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German Ifo Expectations New (Aug) 91.6 vs. Exp. 90.3 (Prev. 90.7); Ifo Current Conditions New (Aug) 86.4 vs. Exp. 86.7 (Prev. 86.5); Ifo Business Climate New (Aug) 89.0 vs. Exp. 88.3 (Prev. 88.6)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said at Jackson Hole that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic, while he said the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Lagarde said at Jackson Hole that the labour market has weathered recent shocks and proved to be surprisingly resilient in the face of an inflation shock and aggressive interest rate hikes, while she also commented that central bank independence is critically important.
- ECB’s Kazaks said the central bank entered a new monetary-policy phase where officials can focus on monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its course, while he noted there is currently no need to lower rates further as inflation is at the 2% target and recent data has not signalled a marked change in the outlook since the quarterly projections in June, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Rehn said the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further after inflation reached its 2% target and with the economy performing slightly better than thought, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB rate cut talk may resume after a pause in September, should the economy continue to weaken, according to Reuters citing sources.
- German Chancellor Merz said tackling economic woes is tougher than expected and that the US’s 15% tariffs on German exports will be a burden on the German economy, according to Bloomberg.
- Fitch affirmed the UK on Friday at AA-; Outlook Stable but stated that greater global uncertainty and weaker external demand will dampen investment growth.
- Italy’s Deputy PM Tajani said he opposes Italy imposing windfall taxes on banks, while he commented that banks should pay taxes and contribute but should not be surprised or scolded, according to Bloomberg.
- Canadian PM Carney will travel to Poland, Germany and Latvia during August 25th-27th and will meet with German Chancellor Merz, while Carney will be focused on strengthening relationships with European allies and advancing cooperation in key areas.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said it is reasonable to expect the tariff inflation effect to fade, while he said more data is needed and he will be revising the rate path view all the way up to the September meeting. Musalem said Fed policy is modestly restrictive and the policy rate may warrant adjustment if risks to the job market intensify. Furthermore, he said inflation is above target with risk of persistence and the rate path could include a pause, as well as noted that the next jobs report may or may not be enough to justify a rate cut, depending on what it shows, and he is looking at the whole rate path, not just the rate decision at one meeting.
- US Pentagon plans a military deployment in Chicago as President Trump eyes a crackdown, according to Washington Post.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s military conducted an attack on the Yemeni capital of Sanaa against targets which included a military compound where the presidential palace is located, two power stations and a fuel storage site.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader said the current situation with the United States was “unsolvable” and that they will stand strongly against the US demand to make Tehran ‘obedient’, according to Reuters citing state media.
- Iran is prepared to significantly lower uranium enrichment to prevent Britain reimposing UN sanctions, according to The Telegraph.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s PM discussed security guarantees with US special representative Kellogg.
- US Pentagon quietly blocked Ukraine’s long-range missile strike on Russia with the US Defense Department withholding approval as the White House sought to entice Moscow to open peace talks, according to WSJ. However, it was later reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has lately been using its own weapons to hit Russia and does not consult on this with Washington.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted an exchange of POWs in which they swapped 146 POWs each.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Filiia in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, according to Interfax.
- Russian air defence forces shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Kursk nuclear power plant and a fire broke out at the plant, although there were no safety threats to people or the plant. However, the Kusk acting Governor separately commented that the Ukrainian drone attack on the nuclear power plant is a threat to nuclear safety.
- Russian air defences downed a drone flying towards Moscow. It was separately reported that Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region and that debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal.
- Norway is providing air defences worth NOK 7bln to Ukraine, which will be delivered from Germany to Ukraine, with Norway and Germany funding two patriot systems including missiles.
- Russian defence ministry says its forces captured Zaporizke in eastern Ukraine, via RIA.
OTHER
- North Korean leader Kim oversaw the firing of new air defence missiles, according to KCNA. In relevant news, South Korea confirmed it fired warning shots earlier last week at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the border between the two countries, according to the BBC.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin moves lower and trades around USD 111k, with Ethereum also extending losses to around USD 4.5k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, in which he signalled the potential for a September rate cut as he noted that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.
- ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high at the open but gave back a majority of the early gains as participants also digested a slew of earnings releases.
- Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but then lost steam and faded most of the early upward momentum to return to beneath the 43,000 level with headwinds from last Friday’s currency strength and with some hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole who expects a tightening job market to push up wages.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with the advances in Hong Kong led by property, mining and tech, while the mainland was also lifted after China’s State Council called for efforts to bolster overall coordination and refine implementation mechanisms of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs to better leverage their role in boosting domestic demand. Furthermore, participants digested several earnings releases and the PBoC announced last Friday to conduct CNY 600bln of 1-year MLF loans for today.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda said at Jackson Hole that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages, while he added that competition for workers has increased and more people are switching jobs. Ueda said they will continue to monitor the labour market developments closely and incorporate that into monetary policy. Furthermore, he said wages are now rising and labour shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues, as well as noted that the demographic shift that began in the 1980s is producing acute labour shortages and persistent upward pressure on wages.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said Japan agreed to strengthen security and economic ties with South Korea, while South Korean President Lee said they agreed on South Korea-Japan relations, which are important in a fast-changing global political landscape.
- Shanghai lifts the home buying limit in the outer suburbs effective August 26th, according to Bloomberg.
- RBNZ opened consultation on New Zealand’s capital settings for deposit takers with the review to consider whether current prudential capital requirements are set at the right level, while the central bank proposed to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZD 5mln.
- Fitch affirms India at BBB-; outlook stable.
2c) Asian opening report
DXY a touch firmer, Bunds fade Friday’s gains into German Ifo – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 02:06 AM
- APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Friday.
- DXY is a touch firmer but unable to recover much of Friday’s lost ground. EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.
- Bund futures have faded some of last Friday’s gains, crude futures are steady.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Aug), US National Activity (Jul), Comments from Fed’s Logan and Supply from the EU.
- Note, today is a UK bank holiday. The desk is open as usual.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks and bonds rallied on Friday after Fed Chair Powell gave the nod to a September rate cut during his speech at Jackson Hole, in which he stated that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance and warned that both goals are in tension with the downside risks to the labour market rising. Furthermore, he suggested that effects on consumer prices are now clearly visible and expects the effects will accumulate in the coming months, but also noted it is a reasonable base case that the inflation effect of tariffs will be short-lived. In the wake of the speech, a clear dovish reaction was observed, with markets pricing in 55bps of easing by year-end vs 48bps prior to the speech, while a September cut is still not fully priced in, but the probability had increased to 84% from 72%.
- SPX +1.52% at 6,467, NDX +1.54% at 23,498, DJI +1.89% at 45,632, RUT +3.86% at 2,362.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump announced on Friday a major tariff investigation on US furniture imports, with completion expected within 50 days and the tariff rate is yet to be determined.
- US food industry groups are pushing for exemptions from US tariffs and arguing that products from fish to cucumbers cannot be affordably grown at home, according to FT.
- European Commission President Von der Leyen defended the EU-US agreement on tariffs which she said was a ‘conscious decision’ that avoided a trade war and called it a “good, if not perfect agreement”, according to euro news.
- Canadian PM Carney confirmed on Friday that Canada will remove its counter tariffs on all US goods covered by the USMCA trade deal, effective September 1st, 2025. Carney said Canada currently has the best trade deal with the US and it is important they do everything they can to preserve Canada’s advantage, while he added that Canada will retain tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos as they work with the US to resolve issues there. Furthermore, it was reported over the weekend that Canada’s Trade Minister said Canada is optimistic about making a deal with US President Trump, according to Bloomberg.
- South Korea’s President Lee said they will ultimately arrive at a reasonable trade deal with the US and he expects to discuss with US President Trump security and defence costs, as well as tariff negotiations.
- India’s Foreign Minister said trade negotiations are still going on and they have lines to maintain and defend, while he added the lines India cannot cross are the interests of farmers and small producers. Furthermore, he said India buying Russian oil was never brought up before the public announcement of tariffs and issues about buying Russian oil are not being used to target other major users such as China and the EU.
- French President Macron said he had an in-depth discussion on major international crises with South African President Ramaphosa, while they also reviewed economic and trade issues, as well as bilateral cooperation between France and South Africa.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said it is reasonable to expect the tariff inflation effect to fade, while he said more data is needed and he will be revising the rate path view all the way up to the September meeting. Musalem said Fed policy is modestly restrictive and the policy rate may warrant adjustment if risks to the job market intensify. Furthermore, he said inflation is above target with risk of persistence and the rate path could include a pause, as well as noted that the next jobs report may or may not be enough to justify a rate cut, depending on what it shows, and he is looking at the whole rate path, not just the rate decision at one meeting.
- US President Trump said regarding Fed Chair Powell that it is still too late and they should have cut rates a year ago.
- US Pentagon plans a military deployment in Chicago as President Trump eyes a crackdown, according to Washington Post.
- Fitch affirmed the US on Friday at AA+; Outlook Stable.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed on Friday that the US now owns 10% of Intel (INTC).
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, in which he signalled the potential for a September rate cut as he noted that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.
- ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high at the open but gave back a majority of the early gains as participants also digested a slew of earnings releases.
- Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but then lost steam and faded most of the early upward momentum to return to beneath the 43,000 level with headwinds from last Friday’s currency strength and with some hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole who expects a tightening job market to push up wages.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with the advances in Hong Kong led by property, mining and tech, while the mainland was also lifted after China’s State Council called for efforts to bolster overall coordination and refine implementation mechanisms of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs to better leverage their role in boosting domestic demand. Furthermore, participants digested several earnings releases and the PBoC announced last Friday to conduct CNY 600bln of 1-year MLF loans for today.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%) slightly pulled back after surging on Friday as hopes and bets for a September rate cut were boosted by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish rhetoric.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Friday.
FX
- DXY attempted to regain some composure after slumping last Friday in the aftermath of dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell who signalled the potential for a September rate cut at his key Jackson Hole speech in which he stated that a shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy and the situation suggests downside risks to employment are rising, while he added that policy adjustment may be warranted, with rates still restrictive, and that preemptive action likely would be warranted should a tight labour market pose risk to price stability.
- EUR/USD gave back some of Friday’s spoils, although the pullback is limited with the single currency lingering in 1.1700 territory after comments over the weekend from ECB officials including Kazaks and Rehn, who stated there was neither no need or rush to reduce rates further.
- GBP/USD reversed some of the post-Powell surge and just about sustained the 1.3500 status, while the world’s largest FX trading hub shut on Monday due to the UK Bank Holiday.
- USD/JPY bounced back from a weekly trough and returned to the 147.00 level with the help of the positive risk environment, although the recovery was capped following hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole.
- Antipodeans marginally softened as the dollar regained poise, but with the pullback cushioned following a much firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate setting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1161 vs exp. 7.1551 (Prev. 7.1321).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures slightly eased back from last week’s peak but held on to most of Friday’s spoils after rallying on Fed Chair Powell’s dovish rhetoric in which he signalled a potential rate cut next month as he noted that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.
- Bund futures faded some of last week’s gains and resumed its pullback from resistance around the 129.50 level ahead of German Ifo data.
- 10yr JGB futures failed to sustain recent gains and returned to flat territory following hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole during the weekend.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded rangebound amid a lack of energy-specific bullish drivers and with Iraq said to have raised its refining capacity to 1.3mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd last year.
- Iraq raised its refining capacity to 1.3mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd in 2024, according to the PM’s office.
- Libya’s NOC said it will host the first Libyan-US energy forum soon.
- US President Trump’s team reportedly withheld Venezuelan oil approval for non-US majors, according to Bloomberg.
- Spot gold marginally pulled back after surging on Friday as the dollar weakened in reaction to the dovish Powell comments.
- Copper futures eked mild gains with prices mildly supported alongside the positive risk environment.
- Codelco said Chile’s mining regulator authorised the restart of operations at Andes Norte and Diamante divisions of the El Teniente mine.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy overnight and fell beneath the USD 113k level after a late dip during the weekend.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda said at Jackson Hole that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages, while he added that competition for workers has increased and more people are switching jobs. Ueda said they will continue to monitor the labour market developments closely and incorporate that into monetary policy. Furthermore, he said wages are now rising and labour shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues, as well as noted that the demographic shift that began in the 1980s is producing acute labour shortages and persistent upward pressure on wages.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said Japan agreed to strengthen security and economic ties with South Korea, while South Korean President Lee said they agreed on South Korea-Japan relations, which are important in a fast-changing global political landscape.
- Shanghai lifts the home buying limit in the outer suburbs effective August 26th, according to Bloomberg.
- RBNZ opened consultation on New Zealand’s capital settings for deposit takers with the review to consider whether current prudential capital requirements are set at the right level, while the central bank proposed to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZD 5mln.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s military conducted an attack on the Yemeni capital of Sanaa against targets which included a military compound where the presidential palace is located, two power stations and a fuel storage site.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader said the current situation with the United States was “unsolvable” and that they will stand strongly against the US demand to make Tehran ‘obedient’, according to Reuters citing state media.
- Iran is prepared to significantly lower uranium enrichment to prevent Britain reimposing UN sanctions, according to The Telegraph.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s PM discussed security guarantees with US special representative Kellogg.
- US Pentagon quietly blocked Ukraine’s long-range missile strike on Russia with the US Defense Department withholding approval as the White House sought to entice Moscow to open peace talks, according to WSJ. However, it was later reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has lately been using its own weapons to hit Russia and does not consult on this with Washington.
- Russian President Putin said on Friday that there is light at the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relations and that contacts continue after the Alaska summit, while he hopes that the first steps are the start to a full-scale restoration of relations, which still depends on the West.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted an exchange of POWs in which they swapped 146 POWs each.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Filiia in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, according to Interfax.
- Russian air defence forces shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Kursk nuclear power plant and a fire broke out at the plant, although there were no safety threats to people or the plant. However, the Kusk acting Governor separately commented that the Ukrainian drone attack on the nuclear power plant is a threat to nuclear safety.
- Russian air defences downed a drone flying towards Moscow. It was separately reported that Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region and that debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal.
- Norway is providing air defences worth SEK 7bln to Ukraine, which will be delivered from Germany to Ukraine, with Norway and Germany funding two patriot systems including missiles.
OTHER
- North Korean leader Kim oversaw the firing of new air defence missiles, according to KCNA. In relevant news, South Korea confirmed it fired warning shots earlier last week at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the border between the two countries, according to the BBC.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said at Jackson Hole that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic, while he said the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Lagarde said at Jackson Hole that the labour market has weathered recent shocks and proved to be surprisingly resilient in the face of an inflation shock and aggressive interest rate hikes, while she also commented that central bank independence is critically important.
- ECB’s Kazaks said the central bank entered a new monetary-policy phase where officials can focus on monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its course, while he noted there is currently no need to lower rates further as inflation is at the 2% target and recent data has not signalled a marked change in the outlook since the quarterly projections in June, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Rehn said the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further after inflation reached its 2% target and with the economy performing slightly better than thought, according to Bloomberg.
- German Chancellor Merz said tackling economic woes is tougher than expected and that the US’s 15% tariffs on German exports will be a burden on the German economy, according to Bloomberg.
- Fitch affirmed the UK on Friday at AA-; Outlook Stable but stated that greater global uncertainty and weaker external demand will dampen investment growth.
- Italy’s Deputy PM Tajani said he opposes Italy imposing windfall taxes on banks, while he commented that banks should pay taxes and contribute but should not be surprised or scolded, according to Bloomberg.
- Canadian PM Carney will travel to Poland, Germany and Latvia during August 25th-27th and will meet with German Chancellor Merz, while Carney will be focused on strengthening relationships with European allies and advancing cooperation in key areas.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
OH OH
Tensions On Korean Peninsula Spike As Warning Shots Fired Along DMZ
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 02:40 PM
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are spiking as South Korean troops fired on North Korean soldiers near the demilitarized zone. The friction between Pyongyang, Seoul, and Washington has escalated due to large-scale US and South Korean war games.
Seoul claimed on Saturday that its forces had fired on North Korean soldiers who had crossed the DMZ. Pyongyang strongly condemned the South Korean soldiers’ actions. A North Korean official explained that Pyongyang informed Washington that its troops would be operating near the border to avoid a misunderstanding.
Ko Jong Chol Army Lieutenant General Ko Jong Chol, vice-chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army said, “On August 19, the ROK military warmongers committed such a serious provocation as firing more than 10 warning shots with 12.7 mm large-caliber machine gun at the DPRK soldiers who were conducting a permanent barrier project near the southern border line.”
“This is a very serious prelude that would inevitably drive the situation in the southern border area where a huge number of forces are stationing in confrontation with each other to the uncontrollable phase and the DPRK army is keeping tabs on the present situation,” he added.
The warning shots were fired as the US and South Korea are conducting large-scale, live-fire war games. The military drills are running for 11 days and involve 21,000 soldiers. Pyongyang slammed the war games as extremely provocative:
“The joint military drill being staged on land, at sea and in the air of the ROK under the deceptive signboard of ‘shield of freedom,’ is an extremely provocative and aggressive large-scale drill for an actual war aimed at a sudden preemptive attack on North Korea.”
The North Korean spokesman continued, “The gravity and danger of the drill lie in the fact that it includes the application of ‘OPLAN 2022,’ a war scenario simulating ‘preemptive strike’ against the nuclear facilities of the DPRK.”
Trump: “I have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. I look forward to seeing him again. I know him better than almost anybody other than his sister. She knows him pretty well.”
Additionally, Pyongyang tested two new types of air defense missiles. The large-scale annual war games conducted by the US and South Korea often cause a spike in tensions. North Korea typically responds with fiery rhetoric, missile tests, and reciprocal military drills.
3B JAPAN/
3C CHINA
CHINA/BURMA/USA
all about Burma;s huge rare earths’ deposits
(zerohedge/Kobyko)
Myanmar Is Shaping Up To Be The Next Front Of The Sino-US New Cold War
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
China wants to retain access to Kachin State’s rare earths, the US wants to poach them, and their escalating competition over this part of Myanmar could make it the next New Cold War flashpoint.
Reuters reported that the US’ Myanmar policy might shift towards more diplomatic engagement with either the ruling junta or the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in an attempt to obtain access to the enormous rare earth mineral reserves in the second’s eponymous state. At present, the US is suspected of clandestinely supporting some of the armed anti-junta groups, but the KIA isn’t thought to have benefited due to their isolated position along Myanmar’s mountainous border with China and India.
This geography poses a challenge to the redirection of these resources from China to India for example regardless of Kachin State’s final political status, whether autonomous within a (con)federated Myanmar or independent, but that’s assuming that China doesn’t intervene. Reuters cited an expert on Kachin State who said that “If they want to transport the rare earths from these mines, which are all on the Chinese border, to India, there’s only one road. And the Chinese would certainly step in and stop it.”
The reports late last year about the joint security firm that China and Myanmar were planning at the time were analyzed here and concluded that the risks associated with even a PMC-led intervention in support of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) make this scenario unlikely. For as important as CMEC is for helping China reduce its logistical dependence on the easily blockaded Strait of Malacca, Kachin’s rare earth minerals are even more important, so its calculations could change.
Nevertheless, China is known for advancing its national interests through hybrid economic-diplomatic means, not military force. It’s therefore much more probable that it might soon ramp up these efforts with either the junta, the KIA, or both to preempt any forthcoming US diplomatic campaign. The first scenario would aim to restore the military’s control over Kachin’s rare earth reserves, the second would work towards Kachin’s de facto independence, while the third would seek that state’s autonomy.
In the order that they were mentioned: the military is on the backfoot in Kachin despite over four years of Chinese support so it’s unlikely that any new approach by China will reverse this trend; China’s decades of engagement with eastern Shan State’s de facto independent United Wa State Army (including over rare earths) could serve as a precedent for something similar with the KIA; while seeking Kachin’s autonomy in a Chinese-mediated political settlement would be the best-case scenario for Beijing.
In any case, it’s unimaginable that China will let the US poach Kachin’s rare earth reserves without making any attempt to preempt this powerplay, so the Sino-US rivalry in Myanmar is expected to intensify. Kachin is at the center of this struggle, which his nowadays driven by access to that region’s rare earths even though it used to be about CMEC, with Myanmar’s political future (centralized, decentralized, devolved, or partitioned) only being a means to the aforementioned end.
China has the edge over the US due to geography (including the nearness of its rare earth processing facilities), its existing ties with both the junta and the KIA, and the allure that any new approach (possibly linked to CMEC) could have for facilitating a pragmatic deal between them. That said, the US might at the very least try to provoke an armed Chinese intervention of some sort to embroil it in a quagmire even if the odds of this scenario are low, all as part of their escalating New Cold War rivalry over Myanmar.
END
CHINA/RUSSIA INDIA USA
Washington’s nightmare: Modi and Xi break the ice
ROBERT h;
Russia goes to China next week for 4 days for strategic trade talks as the balance between India and China. Russia has turned its back on the West and has been embraced by both India and China with open arms.
The West needs to reflect carefully to be strategic and not be spontaneous. The days of endless regime change are over as these two economies with Russia as the energy resource plug are undeniably a force that cannot be stopped by sanctions or military might. These three In combination could potentially shut out the West entirely in trade. This is especially true when the entire Western world bathes in a debt laden economy where there is no sign of an abatement of debt creation. Recession already haunts countries like Germany threatening related upheaval throughout Europe. England may need the IMF before it is over, if civil war does not come first. The day will soon come when there are no more buyers of western debt. If that day has not already arrived unknown to us. And yes, gunboat diplomacy with nations like Venezuela will prevail but it will not change the momentum of giant economics not requiring Western influence or inputs if they unite to further their positions and influence throughout the World.
Consumer based currency hegemony works only as long as countries are willing to supply and not have an opening to and pathway to change direction without much effort or pain.
Pointless conflict using proxies like Ukraine to further maintain hegemony is playing checkers while every one else plays chess.
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/32714
4. European affairs and NATO
EUROPE
IMPORTANT!!
ROBERT H:
Europe in decline
If Europe does not act to control immigration there will be no Europe within a decade as it is known today.
Centuries of tradition and innovation are in decline for the seeing eye. Meanwhile corporations who once were a standard to be measured by will continue to decline simply because migrants will not work but will continue to bleed the state through welfare.
Canada is no different as the toll of migrants weighs heavy on what Canada once was.
Should the balance of monetary hegemony shift to Asia it will be because they did not allow their own destruction. By 2032 very few western nations will be standing as they are today. And as for the feeble minded thoughts of war with Russia as a solution to divert attention to local troubles. This is fool’s errand, if for no other reason then any war that requires troops will find itself short simply because the migrant populations will not fight. Leaving national population to vacate to conflict lines while migrants unchecked ravage the streets. And if war is to be fought with missiles and like the West will lose. Perhaps even the world will be lost as no one wins in a nuclear exchange. Just look at the Ukrainian proxy whose population is being hollowed out with over 1.7 million killed while the puppet Zelensky lines his pocket with graft. The country is well on the way to non existence. Even the likes of BlackRock have abandoned all notion of profit and have run.
Countries like the UK maybe the first to experience civil war. Sadly, Europe is a mess and in countries like Canada even newspapers like Globe & Mail moan about net foreign capital outflows. Yes, foreign capital once invested in Canada is leaving at a record pace. In the first 6 months a “net of $22.6 billion” has flowed out of stocks and bonds ( capital flow is central to country growth). And certain considered Asian investments in Canada of $15 billion+ have been abandoned this year as confidence falls in Canada. Europe is no different inn seeing Capital outflow. Where outflows occur economic decline follows.
Problems are always present until confronted and eliminated. Whether current governments have the capacity to do so is questionable. This is what Investors look for. Capital and this growth goes where capital feels most secure in a stable environment.
Why this is not front page news is a travesty that all people suffer a price for. Because there is required change, before anyone can expect a change in direction. Otherwise the path of decline is quite clear and will soon reach a tipping point, if it has not already been reached.
If you watch this video you will realize the troubles the entire West faces and the challenge to alter the path it is on. As we may again see the days of “NO BID” FOR WESTERN ASSETS.
https://youtu.be/ceq50zLV9p4?si=6mTeySzT9uGyqm2e
END
GERMANY/MUSLIM
no wonder Germany is failing!
(zerohedge)
American Knifed In Face By Syrian After Intervening To Protect Women On German Train
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 04:15 AM
A 21-year-old American man paid a steep price for doing the right thing on a tram in Germany overnight. When he observed two Syrian men hassling a pair of female passengers, the as-yet unnamed American intervened, only to be beaten and slashed in the face with a knife. One of the assailants was arrested, but then immediately let go.
“This is the consequence of Merkel’s open-border policy,” said Alternative for Germany EU parliament member Petr Bystron on X. “Attacks like this happen in Germany every single day. Now it has affected a courageous American. We must work together with @realDonaldTrump to put an end to this madness.”
According to a statement from Saxony police, the violence erupted at around 12:25am Sunday on a tram in Dresden, while it was at the Neustädter Markt stop. When two men that were part of a larger group started harassing female passengers, the American citizen stepped in to protect them. One of the villains stabbed the Good Samaritan and both of them ran off. Police quickly captured one of them — a 21-year-old Syrian national — at another tram stop less than a half-mile away.
Despite the fact that he has a criminal record that includes robbery and dangerous bodily harm, the suspect was quickly set loose. He enjoys permanent residency status in Germany. “He was provisionally arrested and has been released by decision of the public prosecutor’s office,” a police spokesman told Bild. Authorities said that decision sprang from the fact that they couldn’t substantiate that the attacker — identified only as “Majid A” — was the one who wielded a knife. “According to the on-call public prosecutor’s assessment, there were insufficient grounds for detention. The knife attack cannot be attributed to him,” senior public prosecutor Jurgen Schmidt told Bild. Police are reviewing security camera footage and seeking public assistance in tracking down the other suspect.
The American was transported by ambulance to a hospital, with his wound described as serious but not life-threatening. A video is circulating on social media which purports to show the young American hero — bloodied and bandaged — speaking to the camera about the incident. “If y’all didn’t think that Europe had an immigration problem, especially Germany, let me drop some knowledge on you,” he says, condemning authorities for letting one of the assailants go so quickly. At this point, ZeroHedge is unable to confirm the video’s authenticity.
Non-Germans account for 59% of sex crimes aboard German trains and at train stations, and sex violence in general doubled between 2019 and 2024. In particular, Syrians have established a reputation for violence in their host country. A recent analysis of official statistics by the German paper Die Welt showed that 40% of the perpetrators of violence in German schools in 2024 were foreign national, with Syrians leading the way. Syrians were involved in 10% of all school incidents, well ahead of the second-place Afghans who finished at 3.6%. Germany suffered 79 knife crimes a day in 2024, according to a German police union official, with Berlin enduring nearly 10 a day.
It’s little wonder that support for the anti-mass-immigration Alternative for Germany party is steadily rising — with a poll this month showing it is now the most popular party in the country. A stout 26% of Germans said it’s their top choice in the next election.
END
GERMANY
their woke policies are killing them
(Kolbe)
German Economy Shows No Signs Of Emerging From Recession
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 02:00 AM
By Thomas Kolbe
Germany’s Mittelstand Collapses as “Investment Booster” Flops
The German economy shows no signs of emerging from recession. The monthly Mittelstand index, compiled by the consulting firm DATEV, confirms that the downturn continues unabated. The crisis has spread across virtually all sectors of the economy.
The recovery announced by the German government remains a summer fantasy. Data collected in July through DATEV’s monthly survey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) describes the economic situation as extremely fragile—with no upturn in sight. SMEs saw revenues fall by 1.7 percent year-on-year in July. The corresponding business cycle index dropped, seasonally and calendar adjusted, to 91.9 points—firmly anchored in recession territory.
No Sector Spared
Sectors traditionally dominated by the Mittelstand, such as hospitality, have been hit especially hard. Revenues in the sector fell 4 percent, while construction contracted again by 2 percent. “With the absence of a summer revival, the situation in the hospitality industry continues to deteriorate,” said Prof. Dr. Robert Mayr, CEO of DATEV eG. “Hopes now rest on a more positive August.” Hope, however, is no substitute for strategy—and no good advisor amid the worsening conditions for SMEs.
Only retail managed a slight reprieve, posting a meager 0.1 percent revenue increase. That uptick likely reflects sharply rising wages, up 4 percent. But this brings little relief. Businesses are caught in a squeeze: a deteriorating business environment on one side and rising wage costs in a broader economic setting marked by stagnating or slightly declining productivity.
Investment Drought and Capital Flight
Germany is underinvested, losing foreign direct investment while labor costs rise. The consequence is job cuts. DATEV data confirm this trend, especially among small firms, which reduced headcount by 3.4 percent year-on-year. Overall employment declined by 0.3 percent, translating into about 125,000 jobs lost over the past 12 months—70,000 of them in industry, the backbone of Germany’s economy.
The DATEV index offers a granular, real-time look into the engine room of the German economy. The data are not government estimates or Bundesbank approximations but anonymized, aggregated real-time figures drawn from VAT filings and payroll accounts, covering over one million companies and eight million employees.
A Realistic Look at a Deep Recession
The numbers confirm that after contracting by 0.9 percent in 2023 and 0.5 percent last year, the German economy is set to slip even deeper this year. To assess the real trajectory, one must strip out the artificial boost from government spending. With a 3.5 percent deficit and a public-sector share of 50 percent of GDP, the private-sector recession looks dramatically worse—somewhere between –4 and –5 percent. Hospitality’s 4 percent drop lines up almost perfectly with this estimate.
Consumers, meanwhile, remain deeply unsettled. Despite rising wages, they are holding back on spending. Everyone seems to sense that this is just the beginning of a recession, one that could end with a full-blown employment crisis.
The “Investment Booster” Is a Dud
Germany’s structural problems are well known and now manifest. The old business model—cheap energy (much of it from Russia), export-driven growth fueled by the weak euro—belongs to the past. The government’s much-publicized “investment booster” will not jolt the country out of its economic paralysis.
The planned relief amounts to just €7 billion per year—spread across accelerated depreciation rules for machinery and buildings, and token tax cuts that won’t even take effect until 2028. Compare that with the over €100 billion German firms pay annually in corporate and trade taxes—before counting social charges and bureaucracy costs in the hundreds of billions.
The result: the booster is marginal, a drop in the ocean. Instead of real tax cuts or structural reforms, companies get a temporary gimmick. Politicians sell a cosmetic fix as a breakthrough—but in reality, the investment brake remains fully engaged.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
EU
THE KISS OF DEATH TO THE EU FOR THIS AWFUL POLICIES:
(KOLBE)
EU’s Deforestation Crusade: Brussels Expands Green Deal Control
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 03:30 AM
By Thomas Kolbe
The European Union’s regulatory frenzy is taking on manic dimensions. Starting in 2026, a new regulation aimed at “protecting global forests” will further expand Brussels’ bureaucratic jungle. Another job creation scheme for the swelling EU apparatus.
For German taxpayers, the last 18 months have been an expensive ride. Higher property taxes, a raised top income tax rate, the rollback of VAT cuts for hospitality, and CO₂ surcharges all piled on. Brussels added its own bite: higher excise duties on tobacco and energy, a greater EU share of CO₂ revenues (its most effective cash cow yet), and a stack of new compliance burdens for chemicals and sustainability reporting.
Euro-Evangelists
This list is far from exhaustive. It merely illustrates the sheer workload Brussels and Berlin bureaucrats take on in their mission to morally domesticate their still far-too-frivolous citizens.
According to EU brochures and staged “citizen surveys,” the Eurocrats are building a better world: clean seas, clear skies, and “inclusive” working conditions everywhere. With the right indulgence payment – i.e. a cleverly engineered Brussels levy – any sin can be erased. Perhaps Ursula von der Leyen’s crew should be viewed less as regulators and more as a pastoral society of Euro-Evangelists. That way, it all might make sense one day.
Brussels vs. Beef, Coffee, and Rubber
The next crusade begins soon. In January, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) kicks in. In essence, imports of beef, soy, palm oil, timber, coffee, cocoa, natural rubber – and all products derived from them – will be restricted to “deforestation-free” areas.
The burden of proof, documentation, and costly compliance will fall entirely on European companies. Never mind that German firms are already drowning under €146 billion a year in bureaucratic costs – Brussels sees plenty of room for more experiments.
Corporate Pleas Ignored
Industry groups demanded at least limiting reporting duties to first importers. Daniel Caspary, head of the CDU/CSU group in the European Parliament, backed that idea. Brussels ignored them, as always.
The model is familiar from the Supply Chain Act: Brussels drafts a wish list of social and environmental conditions, then forces private companies to enforce them throughout global value chains. Internal chaos, spiraling compliance costs, and fresh liabilities follow. Regulators meanwhile sit back, waiting to pounce on “non-compliance” with fines.
Unlike the Supply Chain Act, which for now applies only to large firms, the EUDR will extend to all businesses operating in the EU’s single market by mid-2025. Every trader, from global giant to small distributor, must produce “deforestation-free” supply chain proofs.
The Green Deal: Hidden Trade Barrier
One wonders if this is really about forests – or about shielding EU farmers from competition. The Green Deal has already emerged as Europe’s greatest non-tariff trade weapon, one even Donald Trump couldn’t dismantle in negotiations with Brussels.
A dangerous corporatist system has taken root: European agribusiness and subsidized industries collude with regulators to suppress competitors, both domestic and foreign. Consumers pay the price via less competition and higher costs.
Ideology Over Logic
The real absurdity? Germany itself, with decades of net forest growth, will also be forced to certify its own supply chains as “deforestation-free.” Brussels will make German beef or timber producers jump through the same hoops as Brazilian ranchers torching the Amazon.
The outcome is predictable: higher prices, more bureaucracy, and yet another Green Deal brick cemented into Brussels’ growing fortress of control.
The EUDR is not environmental protection – it is power consolidation. It is part of the EU’s wider strategy to institutionalize paternalistic social engineering through regulation. And, once again, Europe’s corporate elite stands by silently, refusing to defend consumers against this regulatory madness.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
State Of Famine Officially Declared By UN As Israel Bombards Gaza City
Saturday, Aug 23, 2025 – 07:35 AM
Even as the Netanyahu government has approved of restarting externally mediated negotiations with Hamas again, Israel is threatening to utterly destroy Gaza City if the remaining hostages aren’t returned.
Israel’s defense minister issued a stark warning on Friday, saying Gaza City could face total destruction if Hamas does not quickly agree to Israel’s conditions, at a moment the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing artillery, tanks, aerial and ground forces for a new major assault on the city.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has a day ago announced authorizing the military to take control of Gaza City. Defense chief Israel Katz warned the city could face the same fate as Rafah and Beit Hanoun, which have been largely leveled after prior offensives in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attack.
“The gates of hell will soon open on Hamas’ murderers and rapists in Gaza – unless they accept Israel’s terms for ending the war,” Katz posted on X. He reiterated Israel’s demands for a cease-fire: the full release of all hostages and Hamas’ total disarmament.
Hamas, for its part, has said it is willing to release hostages in return for an end to the war, but obviously is not going to give up its weapons unless there is a full IDF withdrawal and the official establishment of a Palestinian state.
Into Friday, there are reports that the IDF is bombarding Gaza City with artillery or also airstrikes, preparing for more direct operations in the city.
Meanwhile, the other big development on Friday is that the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has formally declared a state of famine in Gaza City and the surrounding areas.
.com/AJEnglish/status/1958808180194001018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1958808180194001018%7Ctwgr%5E8c3120a849cfbf365d8f871bbfc0c0a3a5a2ba51%7Ctwcon%5Es
UN chief Antonio Gutteres said the situation was a “man-made disaster” after the UN-backed body raised its food insecurity status to Phase 5 – the highest and most severe – in some parts of the Palestinian enclave.
The IPC describes that over 500,000 people across Gaza are facing “catastrophic” conditions characterized by “starvation, destitution and death”. But Israel has responded by calling the status change an “outright lie”. Gaza sources say at least two civilians have died by hunger on Friday – and with many more killed due to attacks from Israeli forces.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL HOUTHIS
IDF intercepts Houthi missile fired on Friday, fragments fall in central Israeli backyard
The military stated that the incident was under review and that several attempts were made to intercept the missile.
The scene where fragments of a ballistic missile fired from Yemen hit an open area in Moshav Ginaton, central Israel, August 23, 2025(photo credit: YOSSI ALONI/FLASH90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 22, 2025 21:26Updated: AUGUST 23, 2025 14:29
The Houthi missile fired from Yemen that triggered sirens across central Israel likely fragmented mid-air, the IDF said on Friday.
Magen David Adom said that there were reports of shrapnel impacting a house in the central Israeli moshav of Ginaton. Israeli media said the fragment landed in the house’s backyard.
The owner of the yard impacted by the shrapnel, Ilana Hatomi, told Ynet that, “There was a boom. I was sitting in a shelter, everything exploded, and that was it.
“Everything can be fixed, everything can be fixed, it’s just material damage.”
Hatomi’s daughter, Shira, described the incident as “a great stroke of luck.
“Fortunately, our mother heard the alarm and went into the emergency room. We talked while she was there, and she said there was a big boom. When she came out, she saw that the whole house was covered in glass,” Shira told Ynet. “It’s lucky that it fell close and not on the house. She said that the whole house shook, and as you can see, everything is shattered.”
Booms reported as missile fragments above Israel
Loud booms were heard around Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan. The IDF said it made several attempts to intercept the missile.
No serious injuries have been reported at this time.
Earlier in the evening, the IDF also had to make several attempts to intercept a drone launched from Yemen, which triggered sirens in Israeli towns along the Egyptian border.
END
HEZBOLLAH
Israel demands Lebanon buffer zone, agrees to tone down Hezbollah strikes – report
Israel reportedly insisted that several villages on the border remain without residents and act as a buffer zone, which countered Tom Barrack’s proposals.
IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. January 23, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 23, 2025 13:09Updated: AUGUST 23, 2025 14:21
Israel rejected US envoy Tom Barrack’s proposal to end hostilities with Hezbollah, despite agreeing in principle to gradually stop targeted strikes on targets across southern Lebanon, local outlet Al-Jadeed reported on Friday.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly told Barrack that Israel would agree to gradually stop targeted assassination attempts and strikes, and would withdraw from several key points in southern Lebanon.
However, Israel reportedly insisted that several villages on the border remain evacuated to act as a buffer zone. Israel said that Lebanon could develop factories and other industrial areas there, but stressed that civilians should evacuate the area.
Maariv reported that this effectively canceled the entire agreement, which would have only taken effect had both sides agreed to all of its conditions.
Israel’s military has been active in southern Lebanon since a ceasefire was reached in November 2024, with the IDF saying in July that it would continue regular attacks on Hezbollah until it disarms, even if this leads to another war.
US asks IDF to minimize military operations in Lebanon
This comes a week after Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with Barrack in Paris. Lebanese political sources told the Arab news outlet that reports of direct Israeli control over villages in Lebanon were untrue.
The same sources told Al-Jadeed that Barrack demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from certain villages in southern Lebanon to encourage the Lebanese government to consolidate measures.
The US envoy will travel to Beirut next week with US Senator Lindsay Graham, former US envoy Morgan Ortagus, and several other administration advisers.
Axios previously reported that the Trump administration asked Israel to minimize military operations in Lebanon to encourage Beirut to disarm Hezbollah. Maariv reported that the US administration’s plan includes a suspension of non-urgent strikes, which would be extended if Lebanon takes additional steps to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping.
Earlier on Saturday, an IDF drone struck a target near the southern Lebanese town of Tefatha, in the Sidon region, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news outlet Al-Akhbar reported.
END
HEZBOLLAH
IDF must reconsider its approach to Lebanese army, as Hezbollah infiltration revealed – analysis
Over the years, Hezbollah had “placed a significant number of Shi’ite officers” into prominent leadership positions, effectively taking over control of Lebanon’s military intelligence.
Members of the Lebanese army walk near Beirut international airport, Lebanon, February 15, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/EMILIE MADI)ByPELED ARBELIAUGUST 25, 2025 08:09Updated: AUGUST 25, 2025 09:38
Lebanese Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah has infiltrated the Lebanese Army’s intelligence directorate, Tal Beeri, head of the Research Department at the Alma Center for the Study of Security Challenges in the North, said in an analysis published Sunday, explaining that the IDF cannot treat the Lebanese army as an independent entity.
Beeri noted that over the years, Hezbollah had “placed a significant number of Shi’ite officers” into prominent leadership positions, effectively taking over control of Lebanon’s military intelligence.
He continued, “For years, Hezbollah has operated numerous Shi’ite officers within it for its own benefit and has concentrated efforts to consolidate its influence because of the Intelligence Directorate’s central role in the Lebanese Army and its significant impact on the army’s operational activity. Continued cooperation with Hezbollah from within the army compels Israel to take defensive measures.”
“The army commander, with the backing of the president and the Lebanese government, must immediately dismiss and discharge any officer or soldier, in any unit of the Lebanese Army, who is connected to and cooperates with Hezbollah. Reassignment to another position is not sufficient.”
On August 22, the IDF revealed that Suheil Gharb, the head of military intelligence in southern Lebanon, had been involved in obstructing the investigation into the death of an Irish UNIFIL officer.
“Gharb assisted Hezbollah in concealing details of the incident and in tampering with evidence. In addition, Gharb helped in attempts to prevent the prosecution of the operatives. Gharb, a Shi’ite, is well known as a collaborator with Hezbollah and maintains close contact with Wafiq Safa, head of coordination and liaison in Hezbollah.”
It was later reported that on January 27, 2025, Gharb transferred information from the joint operations room of the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee to Hezbollah.
“Among other things, he passed on prior information about the intentions of the Lebanese Army to conduct raids and patrols that could harm Hezbollah’s activities and assets. Gharb was appointed by President Joseph Aoun (while serving as army commander) as the army’s representative on the monitoring committee,” Beeri added.
Due to Hezbollah’s significant influence within the Lebanese Army, Beeri agreed that most of the current, ongoing “disarmament activity” taking place south of the Litani River is happening in coordination with the terror group. “This coordination is reflected in the providing of prior information, coordinating arrival to certain areas, and with high probability even returning “confiscated” weapons to Hezbollah (the “revolving door” method).”
Other figures connected to Hezbollah
It was also recently revealed that Brigadier General Maher Raad, head of the military intelligence office in Shiyyah (who was later transferred to another position within the intelligence directorate), had overseen smuggling operations in the country alongside senior Hezbollah figures, notably Safa.
Additionally, another Shi’ite officer from the military intelligence directorate, Yahya Husseini, who served in southern Lebanon and worked for Hezbollah, was exposed.
“Husseini was a lieutenant colonel (Raad) and served as an intelligence officer in the Hasbaya sector in southern Lebanon. Husseini, who was promoted in 2017, was linked to the August 2010 Lebanese Army shooting incident against the IDF in the Al Adisa area, during which IDF soldiers were killed and injured,” Beeri concluded.
According to various reports, Husseini (at Hezbollah’s guidance) persuaded Lebanese soldiers to open fire. At the end of 2017, the Lebanese ambassador to the UN, Nawaf Salam (now Lebanon’s prime minister), denied that Husseini cooperated with Hezbollah.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia ‘Made Significant Concessions’ On Ukraine Talks, Trump Still Has ‘Lot Of Cards’ To Play: Vance
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 10:40 AM
Vice President JD Vance appeared on Sunday’s Meet the Press on NBC where he presented a generally positive view of Russia-Ukraine peace efforts mediated by Trump, despite the broad consensus being that talks are stalled and neither side has budged from their maximal positions.
Vance claimed the US President still has “a lot of cards left to play to apply pressure” to end the war. “I think the Russians have made significant concessions to President Trump for the first time in three and a half years of this conflict,” he said.
Some observers have pointed out, however, that it’s a major concession for Moscow to even be engaged in peace dialogue at all, given that by pretty much all metrics it is dominant and winning on the battlefield. It’s a concession in its own right for the winning side to even be talking at all.
“They’ve actually been willing to be flexible on some of their core demands. They’ve talked about what would be necessary to end the war. Of course, they haven’t been completely there yet, or the war would be over. But we’re engaging in this diplomatic process in good faith,” Vance continued.
The vice president suggested that while Russia indeed has maintained the upper-hand, it has been unable to do everything it wants. “They’ve recognized that they’re not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kyiv. That was, of course, a major demand at the beginning,” Vance described.
“And importantly, they’ve acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” And yet, the Kremlin has rejected outright the idea of deploying Western peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, or the deployment of NATO air power.
That’s when he said, “We, of course, have pushed for a ceasefire. But again, we don’t control what Russia does. … What we do believe though is that we continue to have a lot of cards. The president of the United States has a lot of cards left to play to apply pressure to try to bring this conflict to a close, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
This of course includes sanctions, which Vance made clear are not off the table. Days ago Trump said he’ll make a major decision in two weeks if talks don’t advance at all.
The reality remains that Putin has made clear that he won’t meet with Zelensky unless it is to sign and full and final truce agreement, and not a mere temporary ceasefire.
Essentially a deal has to already be done, and only then would the two presidents meet directly, the Kremlin has said. Otherwise, it becomes a meeting just for the spectacle of having a meeting, the foreign ministry has previously explained. Clearly this scenario of a top-level bilateral meeting is still a long way off…
Zelensky has claimed this Kremlin stance is purposeful, to avoid achieving peace and press the battle forward. Zelensky asserted Friday “the Russians are trying to do anything to avoid the meeting” because “they do not want to end the war” on Ukraine.
But Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov had also stated Friday “Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky, when the agenda would be ready for a summit,” but underscored: “and this agenda is not ready at all.”
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
ROBERT H
Houston, We Have Another Problem: Unvaccinated Children Born of Past-Vaccination Mothers, Despite Never Contracting Covid…Are Dying Now at 77% Excess – a 24 Sigma Event
Unbelievable!
GLOBAL ISSUES;
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Lil Wayne postpones show; Ella Langley postpones shows; UK: Saxon postpones more shows; Midge Ure postpones tour; IT: Marco Carta cancels show; AU: duo Royel Otis cancels show after collapse on stage
Manon sits out Katseye’s Tokyo show; SC senator Roger Nutt, 59, steps down after Alzheimer’s diagnosis; DE: MP Mai Mercado quits to fight breast cancer; SP: footie Joan González retires at 23; more
| Mark Crispin MillerAug 23 |
Further indications of the global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Cancelations:
UNITED STATES
Lil Wayne at centre of growing fears for health after postponing gig due to illness
August 14, 2025
Lil Wayne is at the centre of growing fears for his health after he postponed a highly anticipated Toronto concert due to illness. The 42-year-old rapper’s scheduled venue, Budweiser Stage, announced he would not be appearing in a statement issued on X. It said: “Due to unforeseen illness, Wayne’s Toronto show tonight will be postponed. As his fans know, he loves putting on nothing short of the best performances for those who come out, and he was so excited for this one.” The announcement referred to a gig on Monday, 11 August, but is only now coming to light due to concerns about Wayne’s health by fans. No further details have been provided regarding the nature of his illness and neither Wayne or his representatives have publicly commented on his condition despite fans getting increasingly worried about the performer.
Ella Langley Postpones Several Shows to Focus on Her Health
August 11, 2025
Ella Langley [26] is listening to her body and taking a break from touring. The country singer shared on social media on Monday morning (Aug. 11) that her rigorous touring schedule has taken a toll on her, leaving her “feeling more run down than ever.” As a result, she’s postponing the rest of her August concerts. Although she didn’t reveal any specifics about what ails her, Langley told fans in a lengthy post that she needed to focus on her health — mental, physical and emotional. “I’m so sad to be posting this,” she writes. “The past several weeks have been tough. I’ve been fighting sickness and feeling more run down than ever. After a lot of thought, I’ve made the hard decision to take a couple of weeks to rest and focus on my health — mind, body and heart. I want to be fully present for all the moments a head and I know I can’t do that without first taking care of myself,” Langley continues. Langley has assured fans she’ll be back on the road in September.
Katseye’s Manon To Sit Out Summer Sonic Tokyo Due To Health
August 16, 2025
Katseye’s Manon [23] will be sitting out the group’s performance at Summer Sonic Tokyo today. On August 17 KST, Katseye’s agency announced that Manon would not be able to perform at Summer Sonic Tokyo later that day due to her health. The previous day, the group cancelled their performance at Summer Sonic Osaka on August 16 “due to two members feeling unwell.” At the time, Katseye’s agency stated that both members in question had fully recovered and would be able to perform at Summer Sonic Tokyo the following day. However, the agency has now shared that because Manon’s “condition has declined upon landing in Tokyo, she has since made the decision after consulting her doctor to rest in order to recover as soon as possible.”
Jonathan Gresham Announces Hiatus After Medical Emergency
August 8, 2025
Former ROH, AEW, and TNA star Jonathan Gresham [37] has announced he’s taking a break from the ring after suffering two strokes while at home. In a post on social media, Gresham recalled the scary incident and revealed that doctors are still unsure what caused it. He added that his wife, NXT star Jordynne Grace, saw him being taken into an ambulance on their Ring doorbell and quickly flew home to meet him at the hospital.
Researcher’s Note – Nov 2021: Tony Khan was recently interviewed by PWTorch about the COVID-19 vaccination [sic] status of the AEW roster. The AEW President revealed that the majority of the roster is currently vaccinated [sic], and he noted that international touring will create an issue for those that are not: Link
SC senator resigns seat following Alzheimer’s diagnosis
August 11, 2025
COLUMBIA, SC — State Sen. Roger Nutt resigned his Upstate seat Monday after being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease, the Moore Republican said in a news release. Nutt, a 59-year-old father of three, spent a decade on the Spartanburg County Council before winning a seat in the House in the 2020 election. He was elected to the Senate last November after emerging as the victor of a contentious, four-way GOP primary for an open seat. Nutt had been receiving medical treatment for what he believed were symptoms of long COVID, in which symptoms of the virus linger after the infection itself has ended. Doctors instead determined that Nutt had neurodegenerative disorder Alzheimer’s disease, according to a news release.
UNITED KINGDOM
“Keep the faith!” Biff Byford reveals cancer diagnosis as Saxon are forced to postpone more shows
August 15, 2025
Saxon vocalist Biff Byford [74] has revealed he has been undergoing treatment for cancer. The band previously cancelled 10 shows this summer when the singer went in for emergency surgery, which in a new post on social media he has revealed was related to a cancerous tumour found after a recent MRI scan on his prostate gland. He goes on to explain that while the surgery was a success, he now must undergo a short treatment of chemotherapy which means more shows have had to be either postponed or cancelled including appearances at Trutnoff Open Air in Czech Republic and Neuborn Open Air in Germany, as well as the band’s planned tour of Spain and France in September, which will now be rescheduled for April/May 2026.
‘80s Music Icon Postpones Tour Due to ‘Health Issue That Requires Urgent Treatment’
August 6, 2025
Midge Ure [71], the ‘80s music icon known for fronting Ultravox and co-writing and producing Band Aid’s charity single “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” has been forced to postpone his upcoming tour due to a “health issue that requires urgent treatment.” The singer-songwriter and record producer posted the news on his social media accounts on Wednesday, Aug. 6. “It is with great sadness and difficulty that I have to reschedule all shows planned from September onwards and aiming to be back on the road again by later this year,” he wrote. “During a recent routine check-up, doctors discovered a health issue that requires urgent treatment and a period of recovery,” he wrote.
Welsh Rugby Union chief executive Abi Tierney to take leave of absence from role after health diagnosis
August 13, 2025
Welsh Rugby Union chief executive Abi Tierney is to temporarily step away from her role to undergo treatment for cancer. Tierney’s diagnosis means health, understandably, is her top priority. ‘This has not been an easy decision, but it is one I must make to focus fully on my health and recovery,’ she said.
No age reported.
DENMARK
Mai Mercado leaves the Danish Parliament for a period to fight for her life. The 44-year-old politician from Funen has been diagnosed with breast cancer
August 15, 2025
The member of parliament elected from Funen, Mai Mercado, has been on sick leave from her work in the Folketing. The party’s replacement is preparing for a busy autumn and sending all her thoughts towards her sick party colleague. The 44-year-old politician from Funen has been diagnosed with breast cancer. She announced this on Facebook on Friday.
SPAIN
Joan González playing for Lecce, Italy. Barcelona’s youth academy prospect, midfielder announces retirement at 23
August 11, 2025
Considered one of the recent prospects of La Masia, Barcelona’s youth academy, Joan González announced his retirement from the pitch at 23. In a social media post, the Spanish midfielder confirmed his retirement due to a rare heart condition. Raised in the Catalan capital, the player has been playing for Lecce, Italy, since 2022. Joan González was diagnosed with a congenital heart condition last year and failed his medical with the club in 2025. The midfielder made 66 professional appearances for Lecce, scoring two goals and providing four assists. “Today is one of the most difficult, but also one of the most significant days of my life, both personally and professionally. After months of reflection and moments of uncertainty, the time has come to announce that I am retiring as a soccer player.”
ITALY
Marco Carta reassures fans after illness: “I’m better now, the tour continues” Porto Torres concert canceled, but upcoming dates confirmed
August 7, 2025
After the cancellation of the concert scheduled for Porto Torres due to a sudden illness, Marco Carta [40] wanted to reassure his fans with a long message on social media, in which he recounted the difficult times he’d experienced in the past few hours and explained the reasons for the cancellation. The singer, winner of Amici and the Sanremo Music Festival, revealed that he had experienced severe pain the night after the concert in Rosolina Mare, in the province of Rovigo: ”I woke up at 3 a.m. and the trouble began. I felt terrible, I had terrible pain,” he explained in a video posted on Instagram. Carta said he had difficulty reaching San Donato Milanese Hospital, where he underwent a thorough examination and was held for at least one night for observation. Doctors immediately banned him from performing in Porto Torres, deeming his health “at risk.” Without going into medical details, the singer noted that he had previously undergone surgery for gastrointestinal problems—a stomach ulcer or, possibly, diverticulitis, as Carta himself stated in 2018—and that some of his organs remain particularly delicate: ”A few years ago I had an operation, so some organs are very sensitive. Now I’m on antibiotics, but things are better.” Despite his illness and hospitalization, Marco Carta confirmed that his summer tour will continue. The artist—who was discharged on August 4th—announced that all upcoming scheduled dates will be held as scheduled, barring unforeseen circumstances, and promised to make up the cancelled concert in Sardinia.
AUSTRALIA
Pop Duo Cancels Upcoming Show After Band Member Collapsed Onstage, Fan Says ‘It Felt Like Torture Watching That’
August 17, 2025
An Australian pop duo has canceled a show after one of the band members collapsed onstage. Royel Otis, consisting of musicians Royel Maddell and Otis Pavlovic, canceled their Aug. 17 appearance at the Lowlands + Pukkelpop festival in Belgium, Germany [sic]. A few days prior, on Aug. 15, Maddell collapsed onstage at the MS Dockville festival in Hamburg, Germany. The day after the fall, the band shared a statement on their Instagram Stories announcing the cancellation. “We are really sorry to say that we need to cancel our set at Lowlands + Pukkelpop festival as Roy has been unwell with a virus since last night’s show in Hamburg,” they said, per a screenshot on Reddit. The duo canceled six shows on their North American tour in November 2024 because of an emergency in Maddell’s family, according to the Daily Mail.
DR PAULALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
| Former Space Force Sergeant Sentenced to 54 Years for Killing Suspected Teen ThiefFormer U.S. Space Force technical sergeant Orest Schur, 29, has been sentenced to 54 years in prison for the 2023 shooting death of 14-year-old Xavier Kirk and the wounding of another teenager during a botched car theft in Aurora, Colorado.District Court Judge Caryn A. Datz, appointed by then-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), handed down the sentence on August 15, 2025, calling …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Tour Bus Rollover Kills 5 on Interstate Highway in New YorkA tour bus carrying 51 passengers from Niagara Falls to New York City crashed on Interstate 90 near Pembroke, New York, on Friday afternoon, leaving 5 dead and dozens injured.According to the New York State Police, the bus lost control around 1 p.m., swerved into the median, overcorrected, and rolled over into a roadside ditch.“At this time we have multiple …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| FTC Drops Lawsuit Against Largest Christian UniversityThe Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has unanimously voted to drop its lawsuit against Grand Canyon University (GCU), its marketing partner Grand Canyon Education, Inc., and university president Brian Mueller.The decision ends a nearly two-year legal battle that began under the Biden administration, when the FTC alleged deceptive advertising and illegal telemarketing by the Arizona-based Christian university.Background on the AllegationsThe 2023 …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Israel Says It Will Begin Gaza City Offensive in Mid-September: ReportIsrael is preparing to launch a full-scale military offensive into Gaza City in mid-September, according to reporting by the Times of Israel.An evacuation order for roughly 1 million Palestinians still inside Gaza City could come as soon as Sunday, clearing the way for Israeli forces to enter the enclave.Reservists Called UpMore than 60,000 reservists are due to report for duty …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| US to Deport Abrego Garcia to Uganda After Refusing Plea OfferImmigration officials said Saturday they intend to deport MS-13 gang member Kilmar Abrego Garcia to Uganda, after he rejected an offer to instead be deported to Costa Rica in exchange for pleading guilty to human smuggling charges.According to a brief filed in Tennessee federal court, the Costa Rica deal was offered late Thursday and required Abrego Garcia to remain in …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST NEWSTrump Drops Defiant Threat Against Dem-Run CityPresident Donald Trump took to the streets of Washington, D.C., Thursday evening in a show of force with law enforcement and National Guard members, signaling a potential full federal takeover of the city.Trump addressed the assembled officers and Guard personnel, pointing to his administration’s federal operation as proof that crime is falling in the capital.“We’ve had some incredible results and …READ MOREDeSantis Enrages Leftists With Unapologetic DecisionFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) faced criticism from Democrats nationwide after the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) restored a crosswalk near Orlando’s Pulse nightclub to its standard design, removing the rainbow colors that had been painted to honor the 2016 mass shooting victims. The move sparked outrage among some local officials and activists, who argued that the decision disrespected the memory …READ MOREDeSantis Enrages Leftists With Unapologetic DecisionFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) faced criticism from Democrats nationwide after the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) restored a crosswalk near Orlando’s Pulse nightclub to its standard design, removing the rainbow colors that had been painted to honor the 2016 mass shooting victims. The move sparked outrage among some local officials and activists, who argued that the decision disrespected the memory …READ MOREHigh-Profile Immigration Case Shocks With Dramatic TwistKilmar Abrego Garcia, the Salvadoran national who was extradited back to the U.S. after being sent to a notoriously harsh prison in El Salvador, has been released from federal custody in Tennessee and is returning to his home in Maryland.A federal judge ordered Abrego Garcia’s release, citing the lack of sufficient evidence to justify keeping him in custody and noting …READ MORENewsom Threatens Physical Violence Against MAGA Amid Redistricting Battle |
| LATEST NEWS |
| Active shooter reported on the University of South Carolina Columbia campusThe University of South Carolina placed its Columbia campus under a shelter-in-place order Sunday evening after reports of an active shooter near the Thomas Cooper Library. The warning, issued just after 6:30 p.m. ET, instructed students, faculty, and staff to avoid the area, evacuate if possible, or barricade themselves for safety. Campus officials said the suspect was described as a …READ MORE |
| Kash Patel Unleashes Media Shockwaves After Bombshell MoveFBI Director Kash Patel set Washington buzzing Friday with a cryptic post on X, coinciding with a dramatic federal raid on the Bethesda, Maryland, home of former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Patel’s message read simply: “NO ONE is above the law…@FBI agents on mission.”Though he didn’t name names, the timing left little doubt about the target.Minutes later, Deputy FBI …READ MORE |
| DOJ Unleashes Massive Federal CrackdownThe Trump administration announced on Friday that it will not defend a decades-old federal grant program for colleges with high Hispanic enrollment, declaring that the funding is unconstitutional.The Justice Department informed Congress that it agrees with a lawsuit seeking to strike down grants reserved for colleges and universities where at least 25% of undergraduates are Hispanic.The program, created in 1998, …READ MORE |
| Shocking FBI Raid News EruptsThe FBI conducted a high-profile raid on former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s Bethesda, Maryland, residence Friday morning, linked to allegations that he sent highly sensitive classified documents to his family using a private email server.The raid, ordered by FBI Director Kash Patel, came amid renewed scrutiny of Bolton’s handling of national security information while serving in the Trump administration.Bolton, …READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Stablecoins In An Unstable System
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 06:30 AM
By Christian Lawrence and Michael Every of Rabobank
Summary
- The post-WW2 and Cold War global architecture is crumbling; systemic geopolitical and geoeconomic instability is rising; so are risks of geo-financial instability as fiscal deficits grow, public debt rises, and hopes for rate cuts meet sticky inflation.
- Against this backdrop, stablecoins may play a pivotal role – though ironically they are likely to create further instability before cementing an alternative.
- This report will explain what stablecoins are; why people may want to use them; why the US government certainly wants us to use them; and the hypothetical geopolitical and market implications of their roll out.
What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins have risen from a niche crypto product to front of mind for the US government, geopolitical analysts, economists, and market participants alike. What was initially viewed as an easier way to handle crypto risk on the blockchain is now seen as a potentially crucial variable in US debt management, USD reserve currency status, and global payment and trading systems.
Stablecoins are digital assets designed to replicate fiat currencies (Fiat money is government-issued monetary not backed by a physical asset), but we can break them down into the following subsets: commodity-collateralized, algorithmic, crypto-collateralised, and fiat-collateralised. The first three are still niche markets, while the latter is our main focus given it accounts for the overwhelming market share today and, more so, going forward.
Fiat-collateralised stablecoins are issued on the blockchain backed by a pool of fiat collateral held by a custodian. The current market cap is around $234bn and, according to the US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) report from April 30, more than 99% of fiat stablecoins are USD-pegged. Of the $233bn in USD-denominated stablecoins, more than $120bn is backed by US Treasury bills (The rest are collateralised by cash and bank deposits, reverse repo (often backed by US-Treasuries), corporate bonds, gold, Bitcoin, and other crypto assets). In short, this is all about the US.
The dominant USD stablecoin is Tether, with a market capitalization of $163BN. Cantor Fitzgerald, a US Treasury primary dealer previously run by Howard Lutnick (now Secretary of Commerce) is the primary manager of Tether’s collateral. In short, this is all about the US government.
Indeed, President Trump’s recent GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) requires the use of solely US assets such as T-bills, repo, reverse repo, MMFs, or bank reserves and aims to protect consumers in the digital market; ensure USD global reserve currency status; combat illicit activity in digital assets; and make the US the crypto capital of the world. To do so it will create a federal regulatory system for stablecoins 100% backed by US dollars or short term US debt (T-Bills), whose reserve composition must be reported publicly on a monthly basis (One could argue there are a few stablecoin-adjacent assets. One is Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), state-issued tokens considered legal tender – digitised fiat. Another is tokenized deposits, bank-issued digital tokens on the blockchain representing a fiat deposit).
Why would people want stablecoin?
Security: stablecoins allow buying or selling of crypto without using an on- or off-ramp like a centralized exchange (CEX) with Know-Your-Client requirements. As crypto is not covered by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insurance, using centralized exchanges leaves one vulnerable to the counterparty risk of said exchange. Some centralised exchanges are FDIC insured, but only for fiat holdings, not crypto holdings, so counterparty risk exists during the period that crypto sits in the CEX before it is exchanged for fiat. If one remains on the blockchain using stablecoins these can be kept in the holder’s own personal secure ‘wallet’4 that is not subject to counterparty risk.
Anonymity: selling crypto for stablecoin allows anonymity outside of the wallet address. With the blockchain, every transaction is visible by everyone, but the only information that can be seen beyond the transaction itself is the destination and origin wallet address. Who owns that wallet is unknown unless they use an on- or off-ramp that would reveal the wallet owners identity to the on-/off-ramp company, or if the wallet holder decides to reveal their identity publicly. In short, crypto without stablecoins involves moving into fiat which destroys the user’s anonymity.
Parsimony: stablecoins offer a quick way to transfer money at cheaper rates than fiat equivalents, particularly cross-border – and while avoiding SWIFT-system restrictions like sanctions.
Practicality: stablecoins can be exchanged for goods and services. For now that typically occurs online, but there are also growing stablecoin payment systems in shops. Most major US credit card companies also now support stablecoin transactions.
Prosperity: stablecoins cannot be interest-bearing instruments but can be deposited with third party institutions and receive payment/yield for doing so: in short stablecoin Money Market Funds (MMF) are possible, and indeed likely.
Why does the US want stablecoins? Debt
The US –like many Western economies– has a public debt problem. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates debt-to-GDP, at a post-WW2 level in a pre-war geopolitical environment, is on track to reach 156% by mid-century. Many view this as unsustainable and incompatible with the sustained reserve status of the US dollar, if not the stability of the US economy (Figure 1).
To avoid seeing longer-term borrowing costs rise significantly, the US Treasury has in recent years switched to issuing an increasing share of debt at the very short end of the curve, a tactic that is traditionally seen in emerging markets, not global financial hegemons. Indeed, part of the rationale to front-load issuance may be fears over slowing foreign demand for long duration US debt. We are not in the camp that thinks foreigners are ‘dumping’ US assets due to a loss of faith in its institutions and the rule of law, but policy uncertainty could be creating some indigestion for longer duration assets from private institutions. One could argue this is also partly reflected in the rise in term premium at the long end of the curve (Figure 2): it is the potential rise in yields from this perspective that the Treasury wants to avoid.
Notably, as stablecoins must be backed 100%, increased demand for the former will create forced buyers of the latter. In short, the US is incentivized to encourage the usage of stablecoins to soak up increased T-Bill supply.
There is debate about whether or not stablecoins will result in an increase in the money supply. The Treasury states stablecoins “Potentially generate no net change to the US money supply, but catalyze a potential shift of funds away from M1/M2. Stablecoins may gain momentum as a store of value and way to access USD for non-USD holders – in turn, increasing inflows to the US money supply.” We argue the clearer dynamic is a change in ‘moneyness’. Essentially, USD stablecoins convert US debt like T-Bills/Repo (narrow inside money) into spendable cash (outside money). Holders might not be able to buy goods and services with a T-Bill, but they can with a stablecoin.
This raises immediate questions about how the Fed might view USD stablecoins. Would it be concerned about the money-supply impact as inflationary? Would it also look at the potential impact on the yield curve and its own balance sheet? Moreover, would it worry about future financial instability risks if a broader range of US collateral were gradually used beyond TBills?
How an independent central bank sits alongside a much more clearly Treasury-driven money supply remains to be seen – it is certainly something that the next Fed Chair, whomever that may be, will have to consider as part of their remit.
Figure 4 shows projected T-Bill issuance going forwards along with projected demand for USD stablecoins, which is estimated to hit $2 trillion in 2028. Note the debt path for T-Bills uses the CBO’s 2025 baseline trajectory with the assumption that the rise in the share of T-bills grows from 21% to 25%
Why does the US want stablecoins? The US dollar
While issuing more short-term debt in high-debt economies is often associated with a weakening currency over time, USD stablecoins reinforce the US dollar’s global reserve FX status. Markets have been questioning this in the face of US deficits and debt, its aggressive sanctions on Russia, its retreat from the global economic and financial architecture it built, and rivalry within the current global system from Europe/the euro, and from the BRICS economies pushing non-SWIFT CNY, ‘BRICScoin’, or gold alternatives (Figures 5-8). Note we have written on before and remain sceptical of purported dollar replacements, but dollar avoidance is certainly taking place via de facto barter, with goods priced in dollar not used.
There is also a potential geopolitical angle. While we are unaware of any stablecoins that are currently designed in this manner, the smart contract code that ‘mints’ a stablecoin is programmable and editable by the owner. If a wallet is identified as being from a certain jurisdiction or deemed ‘undesirable’ then, if designed as such, it would technically be possible to prevent said stablecoin from being sent to another wallet, or to lock stablecoins held by it. In that respect, stablecoins could potentially be less fungible than physical fiat and offer more government oversight. While the potential programmability of USD stablecoins would make stablecoins designed that way officially unwelcome in jurisdictions with which the US has geopolitical tensions (such as China and Russia, for example), that wouldn’t mean they wouldn’t be popular unofficially, via a hard-to-control black market.
However, the primary logic is that USD stablecoins would be designed mostly for use by US allies as we head towards greater global bifurcation. There, via online platforms, private sector uptake may be seen for all the reasons already listed – plus FX diversification. While this means exchange rate risk for the holder (which in many emerging markets is seen as mostly unidirectional, even if the dollar is well down vs EUR, JPY, CHF, etc. in 2025), the ability to anonymously hold de facto US dollar MMFs, and to cheaply and easily remit and transact in them, could quickly cement USD stablecoins in many places. That’s true even in developed markets.
Indeed, recent trade negotiations, which ringfenced the US with tariffs, also show America has the ability to force others to accept terms they do not like. This could soon include payment for exports to it only in stablecoins, not dollars, or at least a portion of them, which would spread their international usage further.
Moreover, the US could lean on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar –the source of much of Europe’s LNG, for example – to insist on payment for their energy in USD stablecoins: that would mean everyone who buys energy – except those who buy from the likes of Russia or Iran, etc. – needing to hold them.
Hypothetically, over time trade finance/trade could even start to involve –or revolve round– the Treasury not the private sector and the banking system: in the extreme, T-Bills would be akin to US export quotas of a sort.
Such neo-mercantilist economic statecraft may sound inconceivable to those accustomed to US/global free trade, it fits comfortably with a White House already embracing tariffs, making Nvidia pay a 15% fee to sell its AI chips to China (potentially extending that model to other firms too), and maybe taking a direct stake in chipmaker Intel, as the Pentagon takes a 40% stake in a US rare earths firm.
Indeed, USD stablecoins could work alongside the existing Eurodollar system of offshore fiat dollars ($120trn by some estimates), which is already a source of US financial power. Yet from now on, the creation of USD stablecoins, unlike Eurodollars, would necessitate the matching issuance of a US T-Bill, funding the US government, while the US could retain de facto control of who handled them even more than it does via SWIFT and sanctions.
In theory, this implies the need for an ever-growing amount of T-Bills for the US to allow USD stablecoin-based trade to expand, just as with the current Eurodollar system – the ‘Triffin Dilemma’. Failing that, they could become akin to a deflationary gold standard (and/or trade access to the US is necessarily de facto limited).
However, USD stablecoins can also be backed by USD repo, reverse repo, or bank reserves (even if the broader the range of assets involved the greater the potential risks of worrying financial instability become over time). That could be one solution. Yet the US doesn’t want to repeat past Triffin errors which it sees as having helped deindustrialise it: as such, hypothetically, USD stablecoins may gradually allow a separate ‘track’ to the broader fiat Eurodollar market just for trade. If so, any Triffin ‘bottlenecks’ may therefore be deliberate.
Why does the US want stablecoins? Geopolitics
It’s not an act of genius to see how USD stablecoins could benefit the US geopolitically and geoeconomically if one thinks outside the “because markets” box.
The White House is trying to remake the global system to its benefit, as it did in 1945 and after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in the 1970s. However, this time the US wants to ensure it centers around state-guided US reindustrialisation not private sector-guided US financialization to ensure its global military primacy: on the status quo trend that assumption is questioned by many.
Crucially, while the BRICS are financial minnows compared to the US, they are an industrial and resource Goliath; China outproduces the US on all fronts (Figures 9 and 10), and its control of rare earths already sees it choking supply to western military industrial supply chains. The US, for the first time in centuries, finds itself the weaker economic party. Hence, something must change.
Every economy which the US can subsume into its own value chain, not China’s, and which it can arm-twist to help it reindustrialise via running much smaller bilateral trade deficits and pledged manufacturing FDI, is an extra stone in its slingshot. Moreover, many formerly US-leaning countries are refusing to make a choice between the two embryonic emerging blocs – that of the US and China – and may need ‘encouragement’.
USD stablecoins could clearly help forge a new US-centric system –with fewer US trade imbalances and more industry – vs that of China/Russia/BRICS.
The ‘Global Euro Moment’… of realization
This risk is now recognized in Europe, for one.
On 17 June, ECB President Lagarde spoke of a “Global Euro moment”5 as markets looked for potential alternatives to the US dollar; yet by 12 August, Politico reported this bubble was bursting due to fears of USD stablecoin penetration into Europe.
Indeed, a recent ECB blog titled “From hype to hazard: what stablecoins mean for Europe” argues, “Should US dollar stablecoins become widely used in the euro area – whether for payments, savings, or settlement – the ECB’s control over monetary conditions could be weakened. This encroachment, though gradual, could echo patterns observed in dollarised economies… such dynamics would be difficult to reverse given the network character of stablecoins and the economies of scale in this context. The larger their footprint, the harder these would be to unwind…. Such dominance of the US dollar would provide the US with strategic and economic advantages, allowing it to finance its debt more cheaply while exerting global influence.”
Of course, individual Europeans may not opt to use USD stablecoins given the efficiency of the Euro at home: but the tail risks above are exactly what the US is trying to achieve.
What is to be done? Not a lot
What could Europe, or others, do to stop the above scenario happening? Honestly, very little.
- Europe said it wouldn’t spend 5% of GDP on NATO: with one or two exceptions, it is.
- Europe said it wouldn’t strike an unfair trade deal with the US: it did.
- Europe appears to have been handed the bill, and front-line responsibility, for policing a ceasefire/peace deal between Russia and Ukraine; or the loss of its security order.
In short, if Europe — or others — try to block USD stablecoins operating as floated above it would risk reopening wounds on NATO, trade, Ukraine, energy flows, and/or the Eurodollar/Fed swap lines, etc. The latter not today, but perhaps under new management (Of course, these facilities are often in the US’s own interests in order to prevent financial instability that can also impact on it).
Additionally, if Europe wants its own stablecoins it doesn’t have the scale of collateral to match the US given the lack of Eurobonds (This is true for T-Bill equivalents but Europe obviously has many other assets it could collateralise: however, the advantages to be gleaned from doing so relative to the US remain questionable), and using Bunds would place further power in the hands of German fiscal policy. Meanwhile, a fragmented private-sector approach is unlikely to be welcomed by the ECB due to financial stability risks.
That leaves the digital Euro. Yet in January, President Trump issued an executive order stating, “Except to the extent required by law, agencies are hereby prohibited from undertaking any action to establish, issue, or promote CBDCs within the jurisdiction of the US or abroad.” That might create huge problems for European banks also using dollars.
Obviously, smaller global economies are even less well placed to contemplate issuing their own stablecoins to any positive effect.
Of course, neither China nor Russia will want to cooperate with USD stablecoins. Indeed, China is now talking about introducing its own stablecoins. Both USD and CNY versions would accelerate the ongoing process of global bifurcation already underway.
$tablecoins in an un$table $ystem
In conclusion, if introduced as we hypothesise, USD stablecoins may strengthen the US fiscal position and the global role of the US dollar. However, they are ironically likely to accelerate global geopolitical and geoeconomic instability in the short term: least so if US allies adopt them willing; most so if they resist aggressively.
Additionally, while not covered here, some fear that if USD stablecoins are introduced in a less mercantilist and more deregulated ‘Wild West’ fashion re: the USD collateral backing them, they could also increase US and global financial instability – though the GENIUS Act strongly suggests it is the mercantilist angle that matters most for now.
Even in the most benign scenario, USD stablecoins will still risk a less stable world at first as it is split more deeply between geopolitical, and currency, blocs, before perhaps finding a new stable geoeconomic status quo emerges.
That said, it’s very important to note that the current global system is already unstable. The massive trade imbalances and fiscal deficits run for years by many economies are widely accepted not to be sustainable – yet none of our global institutions appear capable of providing a guide or glide path towards a healthier economic equilibrium, let alone a geopolitical one.
As $uch, we $ee the entry of $tablecoins into an un$table $ystem.
Also available in pdf to professional subscribers.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1696 DOWN 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.33 UP 0.497 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3506 DOWN .0008 OR 8 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3827 UP 0.0028 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 28 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 57.80 PTS OR 1.51%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.94%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.12%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.94%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 57.80 PTS OR 1.51%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 174.53 PTS OR 0.41%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3367.80
silver:$38.74
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.81 UP 21 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.192% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.613% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.360 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.622 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7795 UP 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1707 UP 0.0003 OR 3 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.39 UP 0.518 OR YEN IS DOWN 52 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6907 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0022 OR 22 BASIS pts to 1.3821
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1535 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1538
TURKISH LIRA: 41.00 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.613
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.287% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.907 UP 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.726 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3370.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 38.75
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 89.87 pts or 0.39%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 94.60 pts or 1.59%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 131.34 pts or 0.88%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 82.58 or 0.19%
WTI Oil price 64.69 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 68.62 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.89 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 35/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.477 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.981 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1606 DOWN 0.0087 OR 87 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3450 DOWN .0064 OR 64 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6900 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.617 DOWN 1.5 FULL BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.85 UP 1.016 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3862 UP 0.0063 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 63 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 64.69
Brent OIL: 68.67
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.280
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 PTS to 4.896%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 3.736%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.476 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.983 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.41 UP 80 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.000 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.77 UP 0 AND 22/100 roubles //
GOLD $3368.90 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 38.63 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 349.27 OR 0.72%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 72.51 PTS OR 0.31%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.66 UP 0.42 OR 2.95%
GLD: $ 309.83 DOWN 0.75 PTS OR 0.24%
SLV/ $35.02 DOWN 0.32 PTS OR OR 0.91%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 146.29 PTS OR 0.52%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Slump Amid ‘Last Week Of Summer’ Lull, Bitcoin Battered, Black Gold Bid
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM
US stocks are weaker today after a manic Friday in a characteristic ‘last-week-of-the-summer’ lull as investors react to an inline New Home Sales report, a somewhat disappointing Dallas Fed Index, the fourth straight month of declines for Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index…
Source: Bloomberg
… and position ahead of NVDA earnings on Wednesday night.
Source: Bloomberg
But after Friday’s post-Powell panic-buying, stocks rested today with The Dow and Small Caps underperforming, S&P red and Nasdaq the prettiest horse in the glue factory (unable to hold early gains). The last few minutes of the day saw another wave of selling pressure drag Nasdaq into the red…
Mag7 stocks outperformed the S&P 493 for the second day in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
AI stocks rebounded relative to the broad market (reversing some of the recent relative weakness)
Source: Bloomberg
Momo stocks ended very marginally higher on the day but followed the same pump and dump pattern from Friday..
Source: Bloomberg
Meme stocks/ Retail Faves slipped lower today, unable to extend Friday’s eruption…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were higher today with the short-end underperforming (2Y +4bps, 30Y +2bps), erasing much of Friday’s yield plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds for September and December leaked lower today after Friday’s spike…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar soared higher today, reversing much of Friday’s dovish-Powell plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, gold managed to hold on to Friday’s gains despite the surge in the dollar…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended Friday’s gains, breaking back above its 50DMA (rising for the 4th straight day)…
Source: Bloomberg
Some wild moves in crypto-land over the past 4 days with Powell’s move sending BTC and ETH soaring higher and a large BTC whale rotation sending it lower, erasing Friday’s gains (while ETH outperformed). Another wave of selling pressure hit cryptos as the US equity market was closing…
Source: Bloomberg
The ETHBTC pair was down on the day but ETH still solidly stronger post-Powell…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while concerns about US economic activity have abounded all summer long – and have even been a critical factor around calls for the Fed to cut rates – Goldman Sachs Ronnie Walker highlights that at the S&P 500 level, at least, the post-pandemic echo-boom is continuing despite policy uncertainty, tariff headwinds, and immigration reform…
Corporate Revenue Growth Accelerated to the Highest Rate Since Early 2022
Sentiment Around the Consumer Rebounded Sharply in Q2 Earnings Calls But Remained Below End-2024 Levels
Worries Over Labor Costs Have Fallen to the Lowest Levels in a Decade
The big question is – can it be sustained if Jensen lets the world down on Wednesday night?
DATA RELEASES
This is very dangerous in a rising long term rate increases
(Goldman Sachs)
Goldman: Adjustable Rate Mortgages Climb To 41% Of Total Held By US Banks, Surpassing Global Financial Crisis Record
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 02:10 AM
Some observations from Goldman’s, Josh Banschick, head of the bank’s Residential Loan Trading business as well as the Prime MBS secondary business
It’s been a busier August than expected, but I feel like I said the same thing last year, and the year before that. Just a few observations & charts before we hopefully shift into a slower period ahead of Labor Day Weekend.
Banks. We’ve fielded tons of questions over the last few years related to when “banks will be back.” Typically the ask is related to securities purchases, and further, re: Agency MBS. But what about loans?
Bill Moreland from BangRegData does an excellent job synthesizing quarterly call reports. The latest version from earlier this month flags some very interesting metrics on portfolio growth, but more specifically loan growth.
Dropping a few highlights below:
- “Where Q1’s growth was primarily in Trading Assets and Securities Purchased Under Resell Agreements, Q2 saw the best quarterly loan growth in 3 years.”
Digging a bit deeper:
- “1-4 Family [2nd liens] jumped $2.09B (4.33%) to continue a string of strong quarterly growth rates. 2nd Mortgage lending is up $23.05B (84.30%) since hitting a recent cycle low in 2022 Q1. The last time we saw such sustained growth was 2004 Q1 through 2007 Q4. “
You read that right, Q4… 2007
Let me insert here the important reminder of how vastly different the 2nd lien mortgages of 2007 were manufactured vs today’s ilk.
Lastly, re: HELOC
“[HELOCs] grew a torrid $7.34B (2.60%) which is the highest growth figure since 2008 Q4.”
And this is based on drawn amount, not committed:
Another interesting statistic: ARM’s climbed to ~41% of total mortgages held by US Banks – surpasses previous ATH of ~38% during GFC. Find this unsurprising given there’s finally some positive slope across the belly of the yield curve and bank deposits still pay virtually 0. The ARM stat also aligns with some comments made by Chase at a recent MBA conference (reported by IMF).
Speaking of IMF, just yesterday they reported that 80% of non-bank lenders & mortgage bank subsidiaries of depositories were profitable in Q2… a big turnaround that certainly corroborates some of the themes within the call reports for depositories.
My only real takeaway from all of this: constructive for all aspects of Resi, except the ability to source product
More specifically, here we plot NQM AAA oas vs LUACOAS (thank you Pirro). After cheapening a bit thru July, we’re now back to ~average levels YTD.
Credit Curve. Last month I showed BBB vs AAA basis & Prime Sub Stack YTD, both illustrating flatter curves since Jan. Below I’m updating the former. Close, but not quite at the YTD flats here… and the MoM flattening is 2x attributable to BBB move (-17bp) vs AAA (-8bp)
That’s all for now. Remits hit Monday… and happy Jackson Hole Day to those who celebrate.
More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.
END
big problems in the uSA housing sector:
Homebuilder Incentives Soar As US New Home Sales Disappoint In July, Prices Plunge
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 10:12 AM
Amid record July cancellations, and tumbling single-family building permits, new home sales were expected to rise very modestly (+0.6% MoM) last month but instead they dropped 0.6% MoM (thanks in large part to a huge upward revision for June from +0.6% MoM to +4.1% MoM). Despite the upward revision, new home sales remain down over 8% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The subsidy offered by new home builders clearly separates them from existing home sale volumes but neither shows any signs of life.
The share of builders who reported using sales incentives reached a post-pandemic high of 66% this month as they seek to unload an inventory of completed homes at the highest level since 2009.
Source: Bloomberg
The government’s report showed the median sales price of a new home decreased nearly 6% in July from a year earlier to $403,800, the lowest for July since 2021. Prices have fallen on an annual basis every month this year except one.
Source: Bloomberg
The inversion of new versus existing home prices continues to widen…
Source: Bloomberg
Looking ahead, things don’t seem too rosy as this morning saw revised building permits data hitting fresh post-COVID-lockdown lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Homebuilder pain is obvious in this chart as completions plunge thanks to existing home inventory holding at its highest level since 2007…
Source: Bloomberg
And for those hoping for rate-cuts to fix all this, think again…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate cuts have steepened the yield curve and pushed mortgage rates up; but as the chart above shows, the relationship between new home sales and actual mortgage rates has decoupled in recent weeks…
So be careful what you wish for.
ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Canada’s Refusal To Cooperate With DEA On Fentanyl “Superlab” Investigation Fueled Cross-Border Tariffs
Saturday, Aug 23, 2025 – 11:05 AM
President Trump’s new hemispheric defense strategy, stretching across North, Central, and South America, now includes the deployment of 4,000 troops and three guided-missile destroyers positioned in international waters off Venezuela, as part of a broader campaign to dismantle command-and-control hubs of narco-terrorists and purge Chinese-linked drug and money-laundering networks from the region.
Last week, the Pentagon positioned three Aegis guided-missile destroyers (the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and USS Sampson) directly off the coast of Venezuela as new force posturing takes hold in the region, with the Pentagon’s crosshairs focused on narco-terrorists fueling America’s drug death crisis that claims 100,000 lives per year.
Simultaneously, attention turns to Canada, which, like Mexico and other surrounding countries, remains a very weak partner in the region as the Trump administration advances its hemispheric defense strategy to clean up the Americas ahead of the 2030s. Trump’s cleanup of the Western hemisphere is almost comparable to his micro efforts to restore law and order in crime-ridden Washington, D.C. – and soon, in many other cities nationwide left in ruins by failed Democratic leadership that allowed violent crime and open-air drug markets to flourish.
Sam Cooper of the investigative outlet The Bureau has uncovered in recent years that North America’s fentanyl crisis is not just a drug death crisis wiping out military-aged men and women by the hundreds of thousands – it’s also a sprawling international money-laundering machine, run through Chinese Triads, Mexican cartels, and Canadian financial networks in a massive transnational crime web that fuels the crisis. Some view this operation to subvert Washington as Chinese irregular warfare, explained here.
Cooper’s work, as we’ve covered in recent years, spans Chinese narcos using laundering networks via TD bank and other Canadian financial institutions to “Breaking Bad-style” superlabs in Canada to all things China subverting the Americas…
- Chinese Narcos In Toronto Run “Command & Control” Fentanyl Laundering Network Used In TD Bank Case: U.S. Investigator
- Canadian Banks Linked To Chinese Fentanyl Laundering Risk U.S. Treasury Sanctions After Cartel Terror Designation
- Busted Fentanyl Super Lab In Canada Makes “Breaking Bad Look Minor League”: Former Trump Official
- Chinese Intel-Linked Bankers Reportedly Fundraised For L.A. Mayor Karen Bass
- Brookfield’s Deep Ties To Chinese Land, Loans & Green Deals
Cooper’s latest report focuses on how Canada’s federal police (RCMP) refused to cooperate with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in 2022 on a probe into a British Columbia fentanyl “superlab” tied to Chinese precursor shipments. It was only after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iranian-Canadian businessman Bahman Djebelibak and his Health Canada–licensed Valerian Labs that the RCMP belatedly launched its own investigation, without sharing critical information with the U.S. Gov’t.
The superlab in Falkland, B.C. was eventually raided and dismantled, with investigations suggesting the lab was able to produce drugs on an industrial scale:
- Drugs: 54kg fentanyl (95 million lethal doses), 390kg meth, 35kg cocaine, 15kg MDMA.
Last year, Derek Maltz, Acting DEA Administrator, commented on the botched RCMP investigation, blasting the RCMP: “The way they conducted business was disgusting, honestly. We can’t have that kind of activity when our countries are being attacked at levels we’ve never seen.”
Former current and senior U.S. officials told Cooper that Ottawa’s problem isn’t just incompetence – it’s structural. Weak, antiquated laws. It appears politics paralyze leadership, and corruption runs all the way to the top.
Meanwhile, the investigation into the Falkland raid was a dark reality: Chinese underground bankers in Vancouver and Toronto move hundreds of millions through Canadian and U.S. banks, laundering cartel money and financing fentanyl labs. None of this is new, but what is, in the era of Trump, will all be dismantled.
Fast forward today, Ottawa has learned the hard way with a tariff war with Trump, following years of inaction and botched investigations into fentanyl superlabs in its country that fuel America’s drug death crisis.
Here’s an excerpt of Cooper’s latest report:
Canada’s federal police refused to investigate or cooperate with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration on a British Columbia fentanyl superlab probe tied to chemical-precursor shipments from China into Vancouver in late 2022, according to senior U.S. officials. More than a year later — only after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iranian-Canadian businessman Bahman Djebelibak and his Health Canada–licensed company Valerian Labs, naming them as part of a Chinese fentanyl trafficking syndicate that Washington sought to disrupt — did the RCMP finally open a siloed investigation. The force continued to refuse coordination or information sharing with the American agents who had initiated the case. In an exclusive interview, Derek Maltz, DEA Acting Administrator in 2025 with oversight of the matter, called the B.C. superlab case a “major disaster.”
This explosive information, confirmed to The Bureau by current and former senior U.S. officials, has never before been reported in the Falkland, B.C., superlab case, which was covered internationally by outlets including The New York Times. It amounts to a rare public rebuke that elevates the matter from a Canadian policing failure into a high-consequence geopolitical dispute.
It also helps explain Washington’s decision on July 31 to impose 35 percent tariffs on Canada, reinforcing President Donald Trump’s claim that senior officials had warned him Ottawa failed to cooperate or devote sufficient resources to interdictions against Chinese- and Mexican-linked drug trafficking networks blamed for killing hundreds of thousands of North Americans. Three weeks ago, in a statement underscoring intelligence tied to the Falkland lab case, the White House said: “Mexican cartels are increasingly operating fentanyl labs in Canada.” It added: “Canada-based drug trafficking organizations maintain robust ‘super labs,’ mostly in rural and dense areas in western Canada, some of which can produce 44 to 66 pounds of fentanyl weekly.”
‘A major disaster on that big lab in British Columbia’
In multiple interviews with senior officials — including Derek Maltz, who retired this year after Mexico carried out an unprecedented wave of extraditions of dozens of cartel leaders to the United States — The Bureau confirmed devastating details of the Falkland superlab in British Columbia, hidden in mountainous terrain between Vancouver and Calgary. The case became public only in October 2024 — to the surprise of DEA investigators — when the RCMP announced it had dismantled what it called the most sophisticated drug laboratory ever uncovered in Canada, capable of producing up to 95 million potentially lethal doses of fentanyl. Investigators seized a staggering half-ton of narcotics: 54 kilograms of fentanyl, 390 kilos of methamphetamine, 35 kilos of cocaine, 15 kilos of MDMA, smaller amounts of cannabis, and large quantities of precursor chemicals from China. Police estimated the street value at about $500 million.
The raid also exposed the militarized posture of Mexican cartel–style operations, with 89 firearms — including handguns, AR-15-style rifles and submachine guns, many loaded — along with explosive devices, ammunition, silencers, high-capacity magazines, body armor, and roughly $500,000 in cash. So far, only a man named Gaganpreet Singh Randhawa, believed to be a lower level suspect, has been charged after the RCMP’s raid on the Falkland lab and related Vancouver-area properties. What Ottawa failed to share with Canadians, U.S. sources say, is that the DEA’s Newark, New Jersey office had already delivered the case to Canadian authorities through the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa nearly two years earlier — warning of precursor shipments tied to Djebelibak’s company, Valerian Labs. Canadian police, the officials said, not only declined to cooperate but also delayed launching their own siloed probe until after Washington imposed sanctions on Djebelibak in October 2023.
“The way they conducted business was disgusting, honestly,” Maltz said in an August 2025 interview. “And we can’t have that kind of activity when our countries are being attacked at levels that we’ve never seen in the history of our countries.”
Maltz, who limited his remarks to high-level confirmations, agreed with numerous other U.S. officials interviewed by The Bureau that the Falkland breakdown was neither isolated nor new — but part of a recurring pattern of refusal and delay in Ottawa’s dealings with American law enforcement.
“Over the years, we’ve had historical issues with the RCMP not sharing properly, and most recently there was a major disaster that happened on that big lab in British Columbia,” Maltz confirmed.
“The superlab was part of some ongoing stuff going on with DEA New Jersey. There was a major frustration with the DEA agents in the United States that had investigative equity and investigative knowledge on this particular case. And we were trying to share and cooperate. And it was a major problem.”
Like other senior U.S. experts interviewed by The Bureau this year regarding Canada’s increasing exploitation by Chinese and Mexican fentanyl networks, Maltz said Ottawa’s repeated inability to investigate and prosecute major drug trafficking and money laundering networks — and its frequent refusal to cooperate with international allies — stems from a combination of weak, outdated laws and ineffective leadership.
Other U.S. and Canadian police experts also warned they believe the RCMP and relevant Canadian agencies such as Canada Border Services suffer from significant corruption concerns.
“It goes down to the basic information sharing, the antiquated laws, that people are not stepping up and not leading the efforts,” Maltz said of the Falkland lab case. “When I was Acting Administrator, I met with the current leadership and it was actually sad because these guys came to see me and they want to do the right thing. They say all the right things, but they’re so far behind and the laws are so antiquated and so archaic.”
In an interview, Donald Im, who retired in 2022 after a long career as a senior DEA official, described the synthetic narcotics overdose crisis in North America — fueled by Chinese Communist Party chemical suppliers and cartel distribution networks — as a “slow motion, weapons of mass destruction that exposes the vulnerability of whole nations and regions.”
As part of the DEA’s Special Operations Division, Im oversaw sprawling investigations into global Chinese money laundering systems and fentanyl precursor supply chains. He said he provided support to the New Jersey DEA probes that became a linchpin of the agency’s strategy and indirectly tied into the Falkland superlab case. These investigations exposed how Chinese underground bankers — often operating from Vancouver and Toronto — were moving staggering nine-figure flows — in some cases, hundreds of millions within months — through U.S. and Canadian financial institutions, as well as through international trade routes between China, Mexico, Canada, and South America, to sustain the fentanyl trade.
Those innovative cases, Im said, connected Chinese laundering networks across North America to an extraordinarily wide array of actors, demonstrating that seemingly local probes connected to the same global syndicates moving precursors from China, laundering through Canadian and U.S. banks, and producing fentanyl on an industrial scale in hidden labs across Canada.
Im added, in his opinion: “If only one person was arrested in that sophisticated Falkland laboratory? It is either the RCMP is incompetent or, politically, they’ve been neutered.”
That assessment is supported by previous case studies. Another source for this story — deeply troubled by the RCMP and Canadian prosecutors’ decisions not to pursue major targets uncovered in probes of drug-laundering networks tied to Chinese, Iranian, and Mexican syndicates — said they learned the RCMP, while conducting a major investigation into Iranian state-linked drug launderers in Toronto and Montreal, stumbled onto a Chinese suspect moving $600 million in just six months. Yet when briefed, the DEA was told the RCMP would not pursue the case, citing a different investigative focus.
We reached out to the RCMP. They said “No”
While Derek Maltz spoke only at a high level about Washington’s concerns with Ottawa’s handling of the Falkland case, another U.S. official provided a more detailed account of the behind-the-scenes drama between American and Canadian agencies.
The U.S. government source, who had direct knowledge of the case and requested anonymity due to ongoing investigations, said that in late 2022 the DEA’s Newark, New Jersey office alerted colleagues at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa to precursor shipments from China bound for Valerian Labs, Inc., a Port Coquitlam–based company owned by Bahman Djebelibak, publicly known as “Bobby Shah” …
The rest of the report can be viewed on The Bureau’s Substack…
END
Furniture Stocks Tumble After Trump Calls For “Major” Tariff Investigation
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Furniture stocks tumbled in premarket trading after President Trump announced Friday evening on Truth Social that his administration has launched a “major” tariff investigation into the U.S. furniture industry. This underscores what many consumers already know – that much of today’s furniture, whether chairs and couches or tables, sold in brick-and-mortar stores or on e-commerce platforms, is sourced from overseas factories, primarily in Southeast Asia.
“I am pleased to announce that we are doing a major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump continued, “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined.”
The president explained this move “will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”
According to government statistics, furniture and wood products manufacturing employed 1.2 million people in 1970. By the peak of the Dot-Com bubble, that number had fallen to 681,000, and today it sits at around 340,000.
With furniture factories offshored to Southeast Asia, resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs across the Heartland, trade publication Furniture Today recently noted that the U.S. imported about $25.5 billion worth of furniture in 2024, up 7% from 2023, with the majority of imports coming from Vietnam and China.
In premarket trading, furniture stocks moved lower: RH (Restoration Hardware) -8%, Wayfair -6%, Arhaus -4%, and Williams-Sonoma -4%. Inversely, furniture stocks with manufacturing operations inside the U.S., such as La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen, rallied.
Great news for La-Z-Boy…
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
USA NEWS/ANTISEMITISM
KING NEWs
| The King Report August 25, 2025 Issue 7562 | Independent View of the News |
| US stocks rallied sharply during early NYSE trading on Friday in anticipation of Powell touting a rate cut in his Jackson Hole speech. Fangs rallied only modestly. USUs were +12/32 at 10:00 ET, when Powell’s speech was scheduled to begin. Powell Speech Headlines on Bloomberg Tariff effects on consumer prices now clearly visible Shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy. (Ignited rabid ESU/stock buying) Expect tariff price effects to accumulate in coming months. “It’s possible that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation.” The labor market is in “curious kind of balance” but “downside risks to employment are rising.” Powell speech highlights: In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting… Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system. Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth… The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts… A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level… It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic… In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation… Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance… We returned to a framework of flexible inflation targeting and eliminated the “makeup” strategy. As it turned out, the idea of an intentional, moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant. There was nothing intentional or moderate about the inflation that arrived a few months after we announced our 2020 changes to the consensus statement, as I acknowledged publicly in 2021… Our revised statement emphasizes our commitment to act forcefully to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, to the benefit of both sides of our dual mandate…. Third, our 2020 statement said that we would mitigate “shortfalls,” rather than “deviations,” from maximum employment. The use of “shortfalls” reflected the insight that our real-time assessments of the natural rate of unemployment—and hence of “maximum employment”—are highly uncertain… The revised statement also notes that maximum employment is “the highest level of employment that can be achieved on a sustained basis in a context of price stability.”… Fourth, consistent with the removal of “shortfalls,” we made changes to clarify our approach in periods when our employment and inflation objectives are not complementary. In those circumstances, we will follow a balanced approach in promoting them… We also continue to view a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent as most consistent with our dual-mandate goals… https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm Powell is apologizing for the Fed’s overreaction to the Covid crisis that fomented higher inflation. Pundit reaction to Powell’s speech was mixed. Some lamented that he was not more explicit in signaling rate cuts. Others said his speech was cautious. Yet others saw Powell signaling rate cuts. Traders are extremely bullish and perceived that Powell signaled rate cuts. So, they bought like mad. ESUs and stocks soared after Powell said, ‘shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.’ USUs rallied to +31/32. Gold turned from down modestly to +$40.00. Traders bought stuff like crazy on Friday because Powell obliquely suggested that the LONG EXPECTED 25bp rate cut in September was possible. Yes, Virginia, this is 1929-like mania! With all the euphoria/delusion over Powell’s largely ambiguous remarks, the usual suspects ignored the fact the Powell said, “The idea of an intentional, moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant.” @WSJ: The Federal Reserve said it would no longer intentionally allow inflation to run above the central bank’s 2% target, unveiling a revision to the central bank’s long-run strategy https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-officials-erase-old-policy-that-tolerated-higher-inflation-7636e3ee?mod=e2tw Given the fact the CPI is running above the Fed’s 2% target and Powell stated on Friday that the Fed will no longer “intentionally allow inflation to run above the Fed’s 2% target” what will the Fed now do? To reiterate, Powell’s remarks were a Rorschach Test for The Street. Some pundits waxed euphorically that Powell turned a profound dovish turn. Really? Someone needs remedial reading comprehension. BBG Chief US economist Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist: I explain what I hear that made me judge this speech as NOT DOVISH. I think Jay Powell was not being dovish today, and this is the sort of speeches that people will realize how hawkish it is with time to digest. And this kind of knee jerk reaction, only to be reversed later, had happened before. One thing Powell did today —he gave a masterclass of how to straddle between placating political pressure (giving just enough hints of openness to cuts, which can be interpreted both ways) while laying the ground for hawkish response without appearing to do so. https://t.co/kyv1vRBQfY So, my takeaway from Powell’s speech today is that a September cut is still really down to forecasting the data — the CPI and the NFP. True, the bias is somewhat in the direction of a cut, but I don’t think the sureness in the market pricing accurately reflect the risk. As a case in point, here’s Bloomberg Economics’ inflation and growth surprise index, developed my colleague @AnaGalvao24816. 66 indicators in growth, 33 indicators inflation. Inflation follows growth. As you see below. And now I zoomed into the chart. Note now what happened since early July. https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1958937816794067386 @AnnaEconomist: Our NLP Fedspeak index, which takes into today’s headlines by Powell, Hammock, and Collins, ticked in a hawkish direction. https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1958935548204064847 Our view: Powell is now positioned to exact revenge on Trump. If Jerome doesn’t cut, stocks will tumble. If Jerome cuts rates and inflates the US stock and crypto bubbles further, the odds soar that a burst bubble or two will appear – and generate severed financial damage that will torpedo the economy. Though he’s not smart enough to realize it, Trump’s bubbles have put duh Donald in a ‘pay me now or pay we much more later’ vise. @kevinolearytv (Mr. Wonderful): What Powell has given to the market is that he’s inclined to consider cuts should the data support it in the next CPI report. So, he’s got a lot of data coming before the decision in September. This is his last speech at Jackson Hole, so it’s a legacy speech and he’ll answer some questions. What it looks like today to investors like me, is over an 80% chance of a 25-basis point cut in September. Now, that is not a lot. Then the market’s gonna go flat for a while. ESUs hit a daily high of 6496.25 at 11:30 ET, just 3 minutes after the European close. After a retrenchment to 6473.75 at 12:57 ET, ESUs made an effective double top (6495.00) at 13:56 ET. ESUs eased down to 6474.25 at 15:40 ET. The late manipulation forced ESUs to 6483.50 at 16:00 ET. @MauiBoyMacro: Historically, this current blow off in equities is completely normal in anticipation of rate cuts at the end of the cycle. Bulls conveniently forget that when the Fed cut rates in Jan 2001, the S&P 500 bounced for a few weeks and then proceeded to drop 50%. After the Fed cut rates in Sep 2007, the S&P 500 bounced for a few weeks and later dropped 57%. Bulls, be careful what you wish for. Positive aspects of previous session Stocks surged (DJIA record close); bonds rallied sharply on Powell’s ambiguous comments. Negative aspects of previous session The dollar got hammered; precious metals rallied sharply. Beaucoup Wall Street types need remedial reading comprehension. How did they get into Ivies? Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was the explosive rally a blowoff or the start of a new bull leg? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6443.46 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6478.89; 6384.59 Trump said he will fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook if she doesn’t resign. US Housing Dir @pulte: We have obtained a document Lisa Cook submitted to the U.S. Government while serving as Federal Reserve Governor. In it, on February 28, 2023, she represents to the U.S. Government that the Atlanta Property is her PERSONAL RESIDENCE. However, Lisa Cook, as a then-sitting Fed Governor and six months earlier, on September 1, 2022, appears to have listed that same property for RENT. https://x.com/pulte/status/1958886231607320895 @realchrisrufo: There have long been questions about (Fed Gov) Cook’s academic work. Her publication history is quite thin, contains serious methodological errors, and largely focuses on race activism rather than rigorous, quantitative econ. She had trouble getting approved by the Senate. We have found that, in a series of academic papers spanning more than a decade, Cook appears to have copied language from other scholars without proper quotation and duplicated her own work and that of coauthors in multiple academic journals, without proper attribution… Cook’s work is littered with these and other instances of plagiarism and self-plagiarism, according to MSU’s policy. Some of the instances are minor, perhaps signifying sloppiness, but others are much more troubling, rising to apparent misconduct… https://x.com/realchrisrufo/status/1778090908489253037 @SteaknShake: Sometimes, people want to change things just to put their own personality on things. At CB, their goal is to just delete the personality altogether. Hence, the elimination of the “old-timer” from the signage. Heritage is what got Cracker Barrel this far, and now the CEO wants to just scrape it all away. At Steak n Shake, we take pride in our history, our families, and American values. All are welcome. We will never market ourselves away from our past in a cheap effort to gain the approval of trend seekers. Illinois leaders push back as President Trump hints at sending National Guard to Chicago for crime crackdown – Trump: “Chicago is a mess, you have an incompetent mayor, grossly incompetent and we will straighten that one out… I think Chicago will be next and then we’ll help with New York.” https://wgntv.com/news/chicago-news/i-think-chicago-will-be-next-president-trump-signals-plans-to-extend-crackdown-on-crime-to-chicago/ Brilliant move by Trump! Either Chicago & Illinois Dems let Trump clean up their mess or they must goo to the courts and prevent Trump from lowering crime! Lose/Lose for Dems! @byaliceyin: Gov JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson responses to Trump’s remarks today vowing Chicago will be next for federal troop deployment: https://x.com/byaliceyin/status/1958981237529260314 Man remains free despite allegedly terrorizing NYC women for three months https://nypost.com/2025/08/23/us-news/man-remains-free-despite-allegedly-terrorizing-nyc-women-for-three-months/ ‘Official’ crime stats show Chicago and other cities with falling crime rates. However, critics note that the stats, like US economic stats, are fudged; crimes are not reported; and crimes are not being charged. U.S. officially takes 10% stake in Intel https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html Trump says he will place tariffs on furniture — causing shares of Wayfair, Williams-Sonoma to plunge https://t.co/Fqgbv8zIpQ Iran’s Khamenei calls US issue ‘unsolvable’ amid nuclear standoff https://t.co/sR4rhmJgFu @GlobalMktObserv: Call options volume is SKYROCKETING: On Friday, ~43 MILLION call options contracts exchanged hands, the 2nd-largest volume EVER. SPY and $NVDA were among the most traded options. At the same time, 0DTE volumes surpassed 60% of the total for the first time in HISTORY. https://t.co/XU9etTT2y4 @GlobalMktObserv: How do stocks perform after the Fed resumes rate cuts? In the past, the S&P 500 has dropped as much as 12% when the US economy entered a recession within 12 months of the first cut. On the other hand, the market’s median return was 15% when the economy avoided a downturn. (We must add that valuations, which are very important, aren’t addressed here.) https://t.co/N0ce1qrPwR NVIDIA’s market cap is now just ~$1 TRILLION below the Japanese stock market. As a reminder, Japan’s market is the 2nd largest in the world, after the US. NVDA is larger than the UK, China, Canada, France and Germany. This is not sustainable. The NASDAQ market cap relative to US M2 Money Supply hit a RECORD 176%. By comparison, the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak was ~135%, FAR LOWER. In other words, the rise in Tech stock prices has widely exceeded the increase in M2. Great chart: @Maverick_Equity https://t.co/L8QA39ZTze AI, layoffs, productivity and The Klarna Effect (Klaran fired 700, had to hire them back after AI fizz) Promises about AI replacing employees often don’t work out — and may not be such a hot idea. LLM adoption among US workers is closing on 50%. Meanwhile, labor productivity growth is lower than 2020… https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ai-layoffs-productivity-and-the-klarna Today – As BBG’s Anna Wong noted, US stocks have often soared after ambiguous or middling Powell remarks – only to be punished later for the delusion. More than once, Powell had to walk back remarks that triggered massive stock rallies. Traders want to be long for Nvidia results on Wednesday. Absenteeism for the last week of summer and the Labor Day Weekend will be high. This will enable manipulators, particularly to game August performance later this week, to break the law more easily. Expected Economic Data: July New Home Sales 628k; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 15:15 ET ESUs hit 6494.00 seconds after the Sunday opening. They sank to 6479. At 18:28 ET and are 6484.50, +1.50 at 20:10 ET. NQUs, which traded like ESUs, are +6.00; AU is -6.00; and USUs are -4/32. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6270; 100-day MA: 5962; 150-day MA: 5939; 200-day MA: 5945 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,117; 100-day MA: 42,632; 150-day MA: 42,877; 200-day MA: 43,033 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6466.91 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6116.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6336.88 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6387.52 triggers a sell signal Virgina Republican Winsome Sears is a black woman running for governor. It’s astounding and disturbing how liberals treat black republicans. @RealSaavedra: The woman who held up a sign in Arlington that said, “Hey Winsome, If Trans Can’t Share Your Bathroom Then Blacks Can’t Share My Water Fountain,” learns she is going viral over people’s negative reaction to her sign… https://t.co/8ITyL2BHfI @JohnArtunkal: Curious who held up that racist sign in Virginia today attacking Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears? She’s a professional radical Democrat protestor called Anita Martineau. https://x.com/JohnArtunkal/status/1958732304597360733 @WokeWarRoom: This protest photo shows something the woke Left doesn’t want to admit: In their attempt to sound “progressive,” they often resort to hateful, inflammatory rhetoric that demeans real civil rights struggles. This is the paradox of the woke movement: it claims to be rooted in “inclusion,” yet it uses divisive, hateful language against everyday Americans who simply want fairness, privacy, and common sense. https://x.com/WokeWarRoom/status/1959271913949188398 @ScottJenningsKY: Somebody really ought to do a 10 or 20 minute cable monologue on this tonight. Might be a good time to remind everyone how we got here, and how Democrats have evidently returned to their roots of trying to create a separate but equal segregated society. @AsraNomani: You won’t believe the Democratic org behind the racist sign a woman held up to challenge Lt. Gov @WinsomeSears, who is black. The sign: “HEY WINSOME, IF TRANS CAN’T SHARE YOUR BATHROOM THEN BLACKS CAN’T SHARE MY WATER FOUNTAIN.” What is WOFA? It self-describes: “We of Action Virginia | An Indivisible group.”… It’s the multimillion-dollar Dem machine behind ALL the anti-Trump, anti-Elon, anti-Tesla protests… https://x.com/AsraNomani/status/1958713109838733509 On Friday, the FBI raided the home of ex-DJT national security advisor John Bolton. After DJT dismissed Bolton, the mustachioed war hawk turned into a harsh Trump basher. @C__Herridge: @FBIDirectorKash has reopened a high profile National Security case involving former national security adviser John Bolton that was shut down by the Biden administration. I’m told @fbi raids are being conducted and it involves government records… A source familiar with the matter said it is a national security investigation involving classified documents and potential leaks. Earlier on @X Patel posted “NO ONE is above the law…FBI agents on mission.” Patel has made a public commitment to destroy “weaponized government.”… @bennyjohnson: FBI Official just told me the John Bolton Raid is about Bolton’s serial theft and publication of classified information that has gone on for years: FBI Official: “It is widely known the Bolton mishandled and took classified information for use in his 2020 book, after he failed to get approval from the National Security Council for the publication of what they determined to be highly classified information. This raid of Bolton’s residence comes after years of investigation into this potentially criminal disclosure, which started in 2020, before being put on pause for political reasons. The Trump administration is committed to restoring integrity to the Justice department and ending the weaponization government. Our investigation will follow the evidence and ensure accountability.” Dems and their MSM stooges are outraged that the FBI raided a man that they once detested (Bolton). @seanmdav: Democrats and corrupt corporate media used to cheer when the homes of former Trump aides were raided. But now they seem very upset about an FBI raid of former Trump aide John Bolton. I wonder what explains the difference. @MZHemingway: Whenever a left-winger says investigation of Bolton for his mishandling of classified documents is “revenge,” they’re simultaneously acknowledging their belief in rule of man over rule of law AND admitting their unhinged prosecution of Trump was purely political. Would have been great if a SINGLE legacy or otherwise left-wing journalist had spoken out against the Mar-A-Lago raid when it occurred, instead of running an all-hands-on-deck defense of the political prosecutions of Trump and other Republicans. @bonchieredstate: Democrats are going to deeply regret ever opening Pandora’s box on charging political figures over classified documents. Did they think they’d never lose power and have to live by their standards? @nicksortor: Acting US Attorney Alina Habba just CALLED OUT Chuck Grassley for working to BLOCK her confirmation in the Senate. WHAT ARE YOU DOING, @ChuckGrassley? Why are you siding with the Democrats?!… https://t.co/AiErQvvAPT Illegal immigrant charged for allegedly ramming truck into federal officers in California https://t.co/SOQdw6heYy @EndWokeness: (Dem) Minneapolis Mayor Frey thinks that the race was rigged, citing missing ballots, insecure election machines. Omar Fateh’s win is now overturned https://t.co/Zy3ealCXVh Wow! Even Dems now admit there is meaningful vote fraud and voting machines are insecure! @KurtSupeCPA: Kurt Vonnegut once told this story about his friend Joseph Heller—the author of Catch-22, one of the best-selling novels of the 20th century. At a billionaire’s party, Vonnegut said: “This hedge fund manager made more in one day than you made from Catch-22 in your entire life.” Heller smiled: “Maybe. But I have something he’ll never have… enough.” @ShadowofEzra: Ghislaine Maxwell’s conversation with the DOJ raises more questions than answers. Here’s what she told the DOJ: – Maxwell says she never saw Donald Trump in any inappropriate setting. – She insists Trump never acted improperly or received massages. – Maxwell states that Trump and Jeffrey Epstein were not close friends. – She claims Epstein didn’t ki*l himself. – She says there was no client list. – Epstein did not work for any intelligence agency. – There was no blackmail involved. – Bill Clinton never visited Epstein Island, according to her. – Epstein’s s*x obsession reportedly began in 2001 after meeting a mystery woman (name redacted). – Maxwell somewhat confirms that her father had intelligence ties. – In the early 1990s, Epstein rented a house from the State Department. @MikeBenzCyber: We now have both Ghislaine Maxwell AND Jeffrey Epstein’s lawyers directly telling the Justice Department they helped set up the Clinton Global Initiative. https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1959005070999396423 @EndWokeness: Cracker Barrel holds pop up event in NYC to celebrate their rebrand. https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1958960749763837987 @nicksortor: There isn’t a single Cracker Barrel within at LEAST an hour of NYC. Who the hell are they marketing to? Teacher accused of giving student ‘dictator’ award; Florida Attorney General demands firing The parent, Dr. Crystal Marull… said the teacher allowed students to call her son a “Naziphile” because of his interest in World War II and participation in ROTC. She then held up a paper certificate titled “Most Likely to Become a Dictator” and said the teacher nominated her son for the “award.” Alachua County School District officials tell TV20 that Lauren Watts, a history teacher, was placed on administrative leave while an investigation is conducted… https://www.wcjb.com/2025/08/21/teacher-accused-giving-student-dictator-award-florida-attorney-general-firing/ @MissVega8888: This Hispanic girl can’t read or write but yet graduated high school with honors and got into UCONN. How did she do it? The school manufactured her grades and had her sit in a corner all day because they felt bad for the “poor brown girl” and the college ignored any admissions requirements. Now she’s suing them for depriving her of an education. Do liberals realize that they’re the actual racist? https://x.com/MissVega8888/status/1958894654767718408 @EricLDaugh: SecDef Pete Hegseth has officially fired the Biden head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Jeffrey Kruse….Kruse is the one who produced the “preliminary” report on the Iranian strikes that were LEAKED to the media, per WaPo. NOW it makes sense. @jenvanlaar: The foreigners buying the burned-out lots at La Costa Beach in Malibu are New Zealand’s Mowbray brothers, founders of Hong Kong-based global toy giant Zuru. Here are the incorporation docs for three of their shell corporations, which they used to purchase the lots – some of which were not on the market. https://x.com/jenvanlaar/status/1958964119719321625 @adamwren: Third Way is circulating a memo… featuring a new black list of words Dems shouldn’t use. (Privilege, violence, triggering, microaggressions, person who immigrated, birthing person, cisgender, patriarchy, LGBTQIA+, incarcerated people, involuntary confinement) https://t.co/VhvVHZTW9C Polling is so bad for Dems that ‘they’ are being advised to abandon their woke vocabulary! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
The Patriot Oasis™ on X: “
BIG BREAKING: Jesse Watters reveals that the FBI raided John Bolton’s home because he’s receiving $MILLIONS of dollars from overseas. “Primetime’s hearing Bolton is making a lot of money from OVERSEAS and may have been TRAFFICKING U.S. intelligence.” https://t.co/Kig8KTJtMq” / X
A neocon if there ever was one.
END
“I Have No Idea”: Justice Department Official Raised Objections To Ill-Defined Biden Pardons
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Aug 23, 2025 – 11:40 AM
The House Oversight Committee is investigating the use of the autopen by Biden officials as allegations grow that President Joe Biden had little idea of some of the actions taken under his name, from executive orders to pardons. Now, the Committee has disclosed that at least one senior official warned that he had “no idea” what the parameters were for Biden’s blanket pardons and that the public was being misled about the pardons only applying to non-violent individuals.
Associate Deputy Attorney General Brad Weinsheimer told the Office of White House Counsel they needed an additional statement from the President as to his intent and the scope of the pardon:
“I think the language ‘offenses described to the Department of Justice’ in the warrant is highly problematic and in order to resolve its meaning appropriately, and consistent with the President’s intent, we will need a statement or direction from the President as to how to interpret the language…I have no idea what interpretation the incoming Administration will give to the warrant, but they may find this interpretation attractive, as it gives effect to the language but does not go beyond the four corners of the warrant.”
So, at least for this senior Justice Department official, it was not just Biden who may have had little idea of what pardons were being issued under his name. The confusion was shared by implementing attorneys. That is a serious problem in the use of this presidential power by unseen, unnamed staff members.
Weinsheimer also flagged how even the stated intent of Biden in barring violent individuals was being disregarded due to the ill-defined criteria:
“One other important note – in communication about the commutations, the White House has described those who received commutations as people convicted of non-violent drug offenses. I think you should stop saying that because it is untrue or at least misleading… As you know, even with the exceedingly limited review we were permitted to do of the individuals we believed you might be considering for commutation action, we initially identified 19 that were highly problematic.”
House Oversight Chairman James Comer is pursuing this investigation despite opposition from Democratic members and, of course, many in the media. Yet, there is mounting evidence that Biden was clueless on major decisions made in his Administration, including signing a major executive order on natural gas exports. In this latest controversy, a veteran Justice official did not have a clue about the scope of the pardons as staff members just compiled lists of people whom they wanted to include in the presidential order.
What is particularly disconcerting is how accountability for any abuse is made more difficult by the large number of staff contributing to these lists and lack of clearly defined decision makers. With Biden abdicating his own responsibility, staffers were allowed to effectively add names to a signed blank page, exercising a presidential power with the level of circumspection of an inter-office memo.
END
Shocking NEW Documents Expose Multi-Front Effort To Protect Clintons While Framing Trump
Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Submitted by Peter Schweizer & Seamus Bruner of The Drill Down,
Newly unearthed documents show deep state government actors once again circling the wagons to protect Bill and Hillary Clinton — and suppressing evidence that implicated them. Last week it was the FBI, this week it is the IRS.
In 2019, the IRS Criminal Investigations Division quietly launched a probe into the Clinton Foundation’s tax practices, working closely with whistleblowers John Moynihan and Larry Doyle, financial experts who had compiled thousands of pages of evidence.
According to internal agency memos reported by Just the News, IRS agents reviewed the evidence and at least one agent concluded it meant that the “entire [Clinton Foundation] enterprise is a fraud.” Agents then moved to treat the whistleblowers as cooperating witnesses and even set up secure computer servers to hold the material they had collected.
Then, without warning, the lights went out. “Can’t talk about the CF,” agents told the whistleblowers. By the summer of 2019, their inquiry was dead. Moynihan and Doyle are now battling the agency in Tax Court over the apparent shutdown of the investigation.
The IRS’s abrupt reversal follows an earlier, more infamous pattern. In 2016, FBI field offices in New York, Washington, and Little Rock all opened probes into the Bill and Hillary Clinton Foundation, partly on the strength of Peter Schweizer’s 2015 bestselling book, Clinton Cash, which exposed numerous examples of the Clintons using the foundation while she served as Secretary of State under President Barack Obama as a pay-to-play scheme for business and foreign government interests seeking political influence.
The book told the story of Uranium One, a US mining company that was sold to the Russians after investors pledged more than $100 million to the Clinton Foundation. That story was confirmed in a front-page story by the New York Times when the book was published and based on its material.
The FBI field office investigations were proceeding until they were ordered by higher-ups to stop. Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates ordered prosecutors to “shut it down.” Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe required his personal approval for every investigative step — effectively choking the cases.
The fallout from Clinton Cash was real. Clinton staffers scrambled for advance copies of the book, while Hillary’s own pollsters flagged the Uranium One deal as her campaign’s biggest vulnerability in the early primary states. By January 2016, the FBI was looking into the book’s allegations — until the brakes were pulled.
Appearing on an OANN program this week, Schweizer told host Matt Gaetz that the government’s double standard is unmistakable. “At the same time, they are killing an organic investigation into Clinton corruption… they were also creating a completely fictional investigation tying [Donald] Trump to Russia,” he said.
Five FBI field offices had been involved before being shut down, including a satellite office in Africa. Schweizer called the saga proof of a new kind of corruption — “offshored, globalized corruption,” complete with political dynasties selling access and foreign oligarchs buying influence.
The contrast between the scuttled investigation of the Clinton Foundation and the “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation into the Trump campaign’s purported ties to Russia is glaring. While the Clinton probes were heavily throttled, the FBI raced to open a full investigation into Trump’s campaign on the flimsiest of tips — a conversation in a London wine bar — green-lighting it within three days. Clinton’s Russia vulnerabilities were turned into Trump’s burden, projected onto his campaign in a haze of innuendo.
Put together, the picture is damning: an IRS that dropped the ball in 2019, and an FBI and DOJ that throttled their own field offices in 2016. The whistleblowers are still pressing their case, six years later.
But the old memos are now re-surfacing, and the “deep state” may yet face a reckoning from what may prove the largest political scandal of modern times.
END
It Begins: Trump Responds To Leftist Maryland Governor After “Nasty” Comments
Sunday, Aug 24, 2025 – 12:15 PM
President Trump’s Sunday morning attention centered on Maryland Governor Wes Moore, who on Saturday unleashed incendiary comments aimed at the White House. The far-left governor, just north of D.C., has watched his polling collapse as his party of leftist radicals drags Maryland into a power-bill crisis, fiscal turmoil, years of violent crime and chaos, and an ongoing sanctuary state mess. Cornered by failure, Moore’s comments have now put Maryland squarely in the spotlight.
“For anybody, especially in Washington D.C., who might not hear me: If you are not willing to be part of the solution, keep our names out of your mouth.Donald Trump, if you’re not willing to walk our community, keep our name out of your mouth,” Moore said at an event on Saturday.
On Sunday morning, Trump fired back on Truth Social at Moore:
Governor Wes Moore of Maryland has asked, in a rather nasty and provocative tone, that I “walk the streets of Maryland” with him. I assume he is talking about out of control, crime ridden, Baltimore?
As President, I would much prefer that he clean up this Crime disaster before I go there for a “walk.” Wes Moore’s record on crime is a very bad one, unless he fudges his figures on crime like many of the other “Blue States” are doing. But if Wes Moore needs help, like Gavin Newscum did in L.A., I will send in the “troops,” which is being done in nearby D.C., and quickly clean up the crime.
After only one week, there is NO CRIME AND NO MURDER IN DC! When it is like that in Baltimore, I will proudly “walk the streets” with the failing, because of Crime, Governor of Maryland.
P.S. Baltimore is ranked the 4th WORST CITY IN THE NATION IN CRIME & MURDER. Stop talking and get to work, Wes. I’ll then see you on the streets!!! Also, I gave Wes Moore a lot of money to fix his demolished bridge. I will now have to rethink that decision??? Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DJT
Trump followed the post by citing the NYT’s report about claims of Moore’s stolen valor…
Moore’s move to poke the bear – that being Trump – comes as the governor has just experienced a collapse in local polling data…
…as the crises in the state pile up due to failed Democratic Party leadership:
- Power Bill Crisis Sends Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s Approval Plummeting
- Far-Left Panic: Dark Money NGO Floods Baltimore Airwaves With Propaganda To Save Governor
- Democrats Spark “Manufactured Power Crisis” In Maryland As Left Begins To Panic
- “Paying The Price For Failed Leadership”: Maryland Hit With Moody’s First Credit Downgrade In 50 Years
- After Credit Downgrade, Maryland’s Leftist Governor Torpedoes Reparations Bill To Avoid Political Blowback
- Maryland Democrats Pass “Sleep Tax” – Is A Thinking Tax Next?
- Maryland Democrats “Clearly In Denial” As State Faces Twin Crises
- Maryland’s Death Spiral: Reckless Democratic Lawmakers Spark Budget Crisis Fears As “Deep Recession” Looms
Everything you need to know about Moore smiling in this picture with Alex Soros.
Who does Moore serve? Marylanders or Soros?
END
The Big Bill, The Bigger Deficit: How Washington’s Spending Spree Could Break the Dollar
by JM Bullion
It’s official: The U.S. deficit is ballooning.
With the “Big Beautiful Bill” recently passing, the Treasury is on track to add another $3.3 trillion to the national debt. That’s on top of already record-breaking spending and an annual deficit set to top $2 trillion in 2025.
In a rational market, this would be cause for alarm. But in Washington, it’s business as usual: borrow, spend, repeat.
The Real Cost of Deficit Spending
The consequences of these fiscal fireworks are already visible:
- Interest payments on the national debt are now one of the government’s largest expenses, topping $1 trillion a year, rivaling military spending.
- Treasury auctions are softening. Demand is slipping, especially from foreign buyers. The Fed has stepped back. And that leaves more debt for the market to absorb at higher interest rates.
- Confidence in the dollar is slipping. A 10%+ drop in the DXY in the first half of 2025 was the worst January–June performance in over 50 years.
More Spending, Fewer Options
The U.S. government is backed into a corner. It can’t raise taxes meaningfully without risking economic contraction. It can’t cut spending without political consequences. And it can’t stop issuing debt, not with bills like this flying through the legislature.
That leaves two levers: Print more money or inflate the debt away. And neither ends well for the dollar.
Gold and Silver Don’t Need Bailouts
If the federal government is losing control of its own balance sheet, then individual investors need to take control of theirs.
Physical gold and silver have no counterparty risk. They aren’t tied to policy promises. They don’t get printed, taxed, or inflated into oblivion. And they’ve outlasted every fiat currency in history.
If you believe the current path is unsustainable — and the numbers clearly say it is — now is the time to diversify out of paper and into something real.
end
Explore the ZeroHedge Precious Metals Collection
If you believe the current path is unsustainable — and the numbers clearly say it is — now is the time to diversify out of paper and into something real.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING…MARTIN ARMSTRONG
War, Trump’s New $500 Note & Volcanos -Martin Armstrong
By Greg Hunter On August 23, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis24 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Five weeks ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned his “Socrates” predictive computer program showed a “100% Chance of Nuclear War.” After that, Trump was able to get Putin to Alaska to start meaningful peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The chance for war is still 100%, but now, that war may not involve America. Armstrong explains, “My sources in Ukraine are telling me the losses on the battlefield are approaching 1.8 million, 5 million fled to Russia, 8 million fled to the EU. . .. Ukraine is about ready to fall apart. . .. I spread this to Washington and that is President Zelensky was sending $50 million per month to UAE. So, Zelensky has been preparing to leave. There is no way this guy could possibly retire in Ukraine. They will kill him.”
Does this mean the war may be over? Zelensky and nearly all of Europe’s leaders came to Washington recently to meet with President Trump, but it really was not to talk peace. Armstrong says, “The fact that all those leaders came to Washington—uninvited, they all met with Zelensky before they went to meet with Trump. Why did they come? Because they need war. I have warned Washington.”
So, if Europe starts a wider war with Russia, will Trump stay out of it? Armstrong says, “Yes, Trump said no American troops from what I have been told. Trump refuses to send any American troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers—period.”
Reading between the lines, does this mean Trump is putting the EU on notice we are not going to Article 5 in if you start a war? Armstrong says, “Article 5 is voluntary. I have made this very clear to them in Washington. You don’t have to participate. . .. I can’t stop the war. The best I can do is reduce the amplitude. If I can keep America out of this war, that is our best outcome. . .. Europe knows it’s in trouble financially. They have $335 billion of Russian assets frozen. France has about $71 billion. . .. The rumor going around right now is if there is a peace deal and they have to release those frozen assets, France can’t because they have been dipping into them. Europe is a complete mess. When it comes down to handing back $335 billion in Russian assets, I am not sure Europe is prepared to do that.”
Armstrong says forget all the talk of the elite wanting to get rid of cash and replace it with digital currency. Armstrong says, “No, no, no. Why is Trump talking about a $500 note. . .. Trump would not even contemplate doing a $500 bill if he was going to cancel the currency. Everybody else is cancelling currency and putting in capital controls, and Trump is going in the opposite direction. . .. Gold is still projected to go much higher because it is anticipating war.”
One of the surprising things Armstrong brought up are new signals from “Socrates” on increasing volcanic activity all over the world. Hawaii’s Kilauea eruption happened for the 31st time since December on Friday. It spewed lava for 12 hours, and then there was the recent eruption in Northeast Russia that had a huge eruption after 600 years of lying dormant. Armstrong says, “We have every data base in there. Earthquakes, volcanos and temperatures back to 1869 from New York City. It does not show global warming. . .. The computer says we are heading to global cooling and not global warming. . .. The computer is showing from 2025 on, we are going to be seeing a lot more volcanic activity. I just got off the phone with someone from Italy, and they say the super volcano there is starting to become active.”
In closing, Armstrong says, “I still want to have one of those $500 notes.”
There is more in the 64-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, who will update us on war, the dollar and increased volcanos for 8.23.25
For The Wellness Company “Parasite Cleanse” with Ivermectin and Mebendazole, click here. Don’t forget you get 15% off and free shipping if you use the promo code USAWATCHDOG.
For The Wellness Company “Parasite Cleanse” with Ivermectin and Mebendazole, click here. D0n’t forget you get 15% off and free shipping if you use the promo code USAWATCHDOG. You can also call The Wellness Company at (800) 758-1584 and talk to a real human.
There is free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.
There are many new and recent reports to consider buying by clicking here.
You can also buy tickets to the upcoming 2025 World Economic Conference (WEC) in Orlando, Florida. The dates for the conference are November 21st, 22nd and 23rd. Click here for tickets. There will also be streaming for the WEC that you can buy closer to the conference dates.
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
