AUGUST 26/COMEX EXPIRY ON GOLD/SILVER CONTRACTS ENDS TODAY//GOLD CLOSED UP $12.15 TO $3384.20 WHILE SILVER WAS DOWN $0.19 TO $38.55//PLATINUM WAS UP $0.90 TO $1346.40 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS FLAT AT $1101.50//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD/GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS JOHN RUBINO AND ANOTHER MUST VIEW//ZERO HEDGE COMMENTARY ON THE PLIGHT OF JAPANESE BONDS//EXCELLENT COMMENTARY ON THE HUGE PROBLEMS INSIDE THE FINANCES OF FRANCE//ISRAEL UPDATES TBN ISRAEL//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL HITS NASSAR HOSPITAL WITH 20 DEAD: HOWEVER 6 WERE HAMAS TERRORISTS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS/RABOBANK COMMENTARY TONIGHT AS WELL AS DR DANIEL LACALLE//USA DATA RELEASES//TRUMP FIRES LISA COOK SETTING UP A SHOWDOWN WITH POWELL: MANY UPDATES ON THIS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 226 118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 1 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 154 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 303 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 40 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 32 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 9 39 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6 905 C ADM 28
TOTAL: 419 419 MONTH TO DATE: 33,538
JPMORGAN stopped 39/419
AUGUST
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2025: 419 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 41,900 OZ or 1.303 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,538 contracts for 3,353,800 OR 104.317 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 334 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,670,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2113 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 10.565 million oz
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $12.15 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.19 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 491.546 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE 522 CONTRACTS TO 161,952 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0,28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 859 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG 337 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING COUPLED WITH SOME OF OUR MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED A BIT ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE. THE PRICE HOWEVER FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $38.74 . WE FINALLY STOPPED HAVING THOSE MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE BUT STILL WITNESSING LARGE ISSUANCE: AS TODAY’S TOTAL ISSUANCE WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 391 CONTRACTS. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 337 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG SIZED 391 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN THIS WEEK’S TRADING OR BEYOND/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 859 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.28.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR SILVER/MAY
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH OF MAY, WE HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 12.93 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 391 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.28) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 859 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON MONDAY BUT WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION!
WE HAD A 337 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.70 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 339 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 1.695 MILLION OZ WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND //NEW STANDING ADVANCES AT 10.570 MILLION OZ.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST: 4.90 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.695 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.570 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 337 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 391 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 128 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 DAY(S), total 7446 contracts: OR 37.320 MILLION OZ (438 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 37.320 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 37,320 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 522 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 337 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 337 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
LAST 5 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 1.695 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.570 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (391) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE IN THIS WEEK’S TRADING.
WE HAD 334 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.670 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3572 OI CONTRACTS TO 442,378 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 330 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A INCREASE IN COMEX OI (3672 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $1.05 IN PRICE// MONDAY///.
LAST FOUR MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 46.83 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.377 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS) +23.702 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 136.079 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A TINY SIZED 100 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 442,378 /STILL EXTREMELY LOW AND WE NOW WITNESS A LOW COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 160,952 CONTRACTS
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3672 CONTRACTS WITH 3572 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A TINY SIZED 100 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3672 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 352 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID LIKE LAST THURSDAY WHEN CALLED UPON. GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY FELL BY $1.05.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A TINY SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(100) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3572 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3672 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR AUGUST AT 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED BY THE MONTH’;S 46.83TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS + OUR INITIAL 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 7 AND SATURDAY’;S AUG 9 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE + WEDNESDAY’S AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES AND THEN AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES//AUGUST 26: 9.1010//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 136.079 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, AUGUST CONTRACT AT 136.079 TONNES OF GOLD
.
/ 3) ZERO OR LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (AND SOME MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION) AS WE HAD 1)A $1.05 COMEX PRICE LOSS. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3672 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR TAS SPREADERS BUT SOME MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION/ /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY ESPECIALLY TODAY’S JUMP OF 1.216 TONNES !!
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) TINY SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (100 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 352 T.A.S.CONTRACTS/
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,513 CONTRACTS OR 4,651,300 OZ OR 144.67 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2736 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 144.67 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 144.67 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 144.67 TONNES GETTING A LITTLE LARGER THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 522 CONTRACTS OI TO 160,952 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 337 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 337 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 950 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 522 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 337 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 859 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.28 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.295 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.39%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 304.99 PTS OR 1.18%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 413.47 PTS OR 0.97% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.41%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1598 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1620/ Oil DOWN TO 64.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.00 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1598 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1620 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3,572 CONTRACTS TO 442,378 OI WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.05 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT SMALL PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A TINY NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (100). WE HAD LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION //MONDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3672 CONTRACTS (OR 11.421 TONNES).THEN WITH MUCH SHOCK TO ME WE HAD ANOTHER MASSIVE 2,926 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONDAY FOR 292,600 OZ OR 9.1010 TONNES OF GOLD. EITHER THE FRBNY OR THE BANK OF ENGLAND WERE VERY BUSY THIS MORNING AS THEY NEEDED TO REPLACE THE GOLD THEY LOANED OUT TO BULLION BANKS. THE HIGH NUMBER OF CONTRACTS ISSUED ON EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THEM!@!!!!!
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY:
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST;
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AUGUST 7 THE CME ANNOUNCED MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR AUGUST OF A MONSTER 1750 CONTRACTS FOR 175,000 OZ OR (5.4432 TONNES OF GOLD, THIRD HIGHEST ON RECORD!!. WITH ALL THE CHAOS AT THE COMEX IT WAS NO SURPRISE THAT THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AUG 10 TOTALLING 776 CONTRACTS OR 77,600 OZ (2.418 TONNES).MUCH TO MY ANGER LAST WEEK, THE CME ANNOUNCED ITS 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 848 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 84,800 OZ OR 2.637 TONNES.
NOW WE REACH TODAY WERE THE CME ISSUED ITS 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A MASSIVE 2928 CONTRACTS TOTALLING 292800 OZ OR 9.107 TONNES.
THUS THE TOTAL FOR AUGUST IS 6302 CONTRACTS OR 630,200OZ OR 19.6019 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS. THE RECEPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS PROBABLY NOW THE BANK OF ENGLAND AS WE HAVE JUST LEARNED THAT THE FRBNY HAS RETURNED ONLY 14,000 OZ AS THEIR LOANS TO THE BIS REMAIN AT 34+ TONNES.(JULY 31 FIGURES). BUT IT COULD ALSO BE THE FRBNY AS URGENCY TO RETURN THAT GOLD MAY HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE BIS. IT SEEMS NOW THAT EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBY ARE IN QUITE A HURRY TO GET ITS GOLD BACK!! (AND THEY ARE THE PROBABLE OWNERS OF THOSE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS). THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 5 ISSUANCES FOR A MONSTER 9,228 CONTRACTS OR 922,800 OZ ( 28.702 TONNES). YESTERDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2926 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BEATING YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS.
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3672 CONTRACTS WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE , JULY AND NOW AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 352 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST WEEK’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE AT MONTH END WITH OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED THREE WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH AUGUST MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 46.83 TONNES +28.702 TONNES EX FOR RISK (5 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 136.079 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 237 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE 46.83 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE AND FINALLY TODAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 136.079 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A TINY SIZED 100 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 100 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
ZERO OR TINY LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW APPEARED ON THE SCENE DISTORTING OI NUMBERS.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 352 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST WEEK ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 28.702 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.216TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK
28.702 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.377 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
EQUALS
136.079 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING/AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A SMALL $1.05/ /) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION (SAVING IT TODAY, TUESDAY) AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING!! GENERALLY WE WITNESS GOLD HAVING A STRONG DAY WHEN WE WITNESS THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE:
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: FIVE SO FAR,
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 29.702 TONNES, THE HIGHEST EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!
THUS 107.377 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS) + 28.702 TONNES = 136.079 TONNES.
ANALYSIS AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// AUGUST COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 39.56 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST FIRST RECORDED AT 60.547 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICETO WHICH WE TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.216 TO OUR MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS OF 46.83// TOTAL MONTH OF AUGUST QUEUE JUMPS: 46.83 TONNES
TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 28.702 TONNES FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 136.079 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.05
WE HAD 330 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2672 CONTRACTS OR 267200 0Z (11.421 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 107,537 contracts// very weak//everybody vacating the comex???
i) out of Asahi 3954.573 oz (123 kilobars) ii) out of Brinks 385.82 oz (12 kilobares)
total withdrawal 4340.393 oz
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into International Delaware: 19,290.600 oz (6000 kilobars)
total weight: 19,290.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
419 notice(s) 41,900 OZ 1.303 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
984 contracts 98400 OZ 3.060 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
33,538 notices 3,353,800 oz 104.317 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits:
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into International Delaware: 19,290.600 oz (6000 kilobars)
total weight: 19,290.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
2 entries
i) out of Asahi 3954.573 oz (123 kilobars) ii) out of Brinks 385.82 oz (12 kilobares)
total withdrawal 4340.393 o
adjustments:
i) Brinks 3086.390 oz
96 kilobars
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST STANDS AT 1318 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 385 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 6 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 391 CONTRACTS OR 39,100 OZ OF GOLD (1.216 TONNES) EXERCISED A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE WILLING TO STAND FOR PHYSICAL METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AND THEIR APPETITE FOR THIS GOLD IS UNABATED!
SEPT LOST 328 CONTRACTS TO 3580. SEPTEMBER BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH STANDING FOR GOLD
OCTOBER GAINED 399 CONTRACTS UP TO 60,177
We had 419 contracts filed for today representing 41900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 9 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 419 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 39 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,538 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST ( 1318 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (419 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,452,200 OZ OR 107.377 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE ISSUANCES OF 28.702 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/AUG 7 , 11 12TH 25TH AND 26TH AUG// = 136.079 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (33,538 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (1318 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (419 x 100 oz) which equals 3,452,200 OZ OR 107.377 TONNES + 28.702 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 136.079 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.: 125.499TONNES WHICH IS A MONSTER FOR THIS NORMALLY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. AND THIS RUNS COUNTER INTUATIVE TO OUR CONSTANT RAIDING THIS WEEK
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 191.098 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 508.778 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2025 OI: 337 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 337 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 2 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 339 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1.695 MILLION OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX HAVING UNDERGONE A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP AS THESE GUYS ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 7783 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 37,000 CONTRACTS. SEPT BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH FOR DELIVERY IN SILVER AND WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE!
OCTOBER GAINED 190 CONTRACTS TO 1630
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 334 or 1.670 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 69,587 good//
AND NOW AUGUST DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2113 X5,000 oz = 10.565 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (337) AND the number of notices served upon today (334 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST 2025 contract month: (2113) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST(337) minus number of notices served upon today (334)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equating to 10.570 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 10.570 million oz which is pretty good for this NON active delivery month of AUGUST. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 191.098 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/508.778 million. 41.27%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 958.49 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
In recent decades, China which ranks fifth in global silver reserves has not only mined 3,500—4,000 tonnes annually but imported large quantities of silver doré for refining as well. Less well known is the Peoples Bank’s role in managing silver reserves, which many people in China still regard as a monetary metal. China was on a silver standard only ninety years ago.
Today, gold is the principal monetary metal, and silver is widely regarded as industrial only. But since 1983, along with gold the PBOC has been responsible for overseeing the accumulation of the nation’s silver bullion reserves. The key to this policy has been price management. This article shows how this was achieved.
Introduction
About twelve ago, I was speaking in New York at a conference attended by about a dozen silver mining and exploration companies. At that time, conspiracy theories about JPMorgan’s dealings in the silver market were rife. But when Blythe Masters, then Head of Global Commodities at JPMorgan went on CNBC, she made JPMorgan’s position clear:
“Speculation is [rife] particularly in the blogosphere about this topic and I think the challenge is that speculation represents a misunderstanding as the nature of our business. As I mentioned earlier our business is a client driven business where we execute on behalf of clients to achieve their financial and risk management objectives. The challenge is that commentators don’t see all of that activity simultaneously. So just to give you a simple example we store significant amounts of commodities, for example silver on behalf of customers. We operate vaults in New York City, in Singapore, and in London. And often when customers have that metal stored in our facilities, they hedge it on a forward basis through JPMorgan who in turn hedges itself in the commodity markets. If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market, but you aren’t aware of the underlying client position then hedging it would suggest inaccurately that we’re running a large directional position. In fact, that’s not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline. Rather, we’re running a flat or a relatively neutral… [interviewer interrupts]”[i]
Silver bulls rushed to condemn her, calling her a liar and worse. But I was convinced that a senior executive of her undoubted ability and in her position would be telling the truth. Furthermore, I suspected that Masters did the CNBC interview specifically to quash the wild rumours about JPMorgan’s silver dealing rather than ignore them.
So, what was JPMorgan’s true role in the market? Clearly, it was intermediating for clients and not taking one-sided positions on its own book. As Masters revealed, the bank only took out derivative positions to hedge their dealings with clients.
The conference in New York gave me a chance to dig a little deeper. I asked the dozen or so silver companies present the process of how they turned their silver at the mine into cash to pay their costs. They all said that the process started with an assessment of the silver doré’s value by a specialist assessor, usually from Glencore, who then arranged for payment and shipment to a refiner. None of the miners admitted they knew where the doré was shipped to for refining — it was no longer their concern. But the common assumption was probably China.
Glencore is a huge commodity trader acting for large mining corporations as well as the smaller miners I interviewed. They obviously worked with a major bank on the payments side, which is where JPMorgan would come into the picture. As soon as the doré was shipped, the cashflow-hungry miner would be paid on the assessor’s valuation by JPMorgan. Likely, it would be shipped FOB Origin, which means the doré enters Chinese possession at the point of shipment.
Presumably, China (which would have been the PBOC) instructed JPMorgan to hedge the silver price on Comex or London, timed to suppress the price. Note that this is not JPMorgan acting as principal but acting for the Chinese as a client.
As well as being a large miner herself, China was refining considerable amounts of imported doré when some western refineries were closing down on environmental and cost grounds. So, the hedging book through JPMorgan would have been significant enough to manage the price. We can take this even further, in the context of a normal dealer/client relationship. As dealer and client work together, an element of dealing discretion can be given to the dealer along with dealing objectives.
So what might those objectives be?
As a major buyer of doré, it would have been in China’s interests to keep the price as low as possible. And shorting derivatives would have been the means for China to accumulate substantial silver reserves for monetary purposes, which she had already done with gold.
In this context, the original 1983 Regulations on the Control of Gold and Silver appointing the Peoples Bank of China states:
Article 4. The People’s Bank of China shall be the State organ responsible for the control of gold and silver in the People’s Republic of China.
The People’s Bank of China shall be responsible for the control of the State’s gold and silver reserves; responsible for the purchase and sale of gold and silver; work in conjunction with the authority responsible for commodity prices to formulate and administer a purchase and sales price for gold and silver [my emphasis]
Note the PBOC’s responsibility for controlling the price of silver.
We know or should know that in the period 1983—2002 when the Shanghai Gold Exchange finally came into existence under the control of the PBOC, that the PBOC was able to secretly accumulate vast quantities of gold which was in a substantial bear market fuelled by American and European financial communities liquidating their bullion holdings in favour of dollars. I believe that during this period China secretly acquired as much as 20,000 tonnes, hidden by being spread round various state bodies.
These easy conditions for accumulating gold were not generally true for stockpiling silver in the far larger quantities required, reflected in the price relationship between the two monetary metals. The PBOC had to use different tactics. The practical way to accumulate massive quantities of silver was to become the world’s refiner and manage the price — in other words keep it suppressed principally by selling as a covered bear in paper markets.
Blythe Masters had no need to lie about JPMorgan’s role in this. Between Glencore and China as its customers, JPMorgan would be central to achieving the outcome China desired.
There is another aspect to this puzzle rarely mentioned. Note, that under Article 4 of the Regulations appointing the PBOC that no distinction is made between gold and silver. For the purposes of the regulations, silver is as much money as gold, a reserve to be controlled by the central bank as general backing for the currency.
It should be remembered that China was on a silver standard as recently as 1935. Ordinary people accumulated silver as wealth and banks kept reserves in silver. For the Chinese population, silver was their money as much as gold was in the west. There is every reason why silver should be singled out in the Regulations to have the same status as gold.
Will China continue to suppress prices? Those days are probably over. Almost certainly, China has accumulated substantial silver reserves, more than enough for a supporting monetary role to gold. The state’s monetary silver reserves are likely to be segregated from industrial production, which has become an uncontrollable source of demand.
Clearly, the PBOC understands the role of monetary metals, which is ultimately to secure the value of credit. They know that gold and silver values are generally stable, and that it is credit which declines. Their very public disposal of dollars for gold tells us that they are no longer suppressing prices of gold. What goes for gold must also apply to their policy regarding silver.
END
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!
The Mar-a-Lago Accord Confirmed: Miran Brings Trump’s Reset To The Fed
[ZH: This was written before Trump fired Fed Governor Cook, potentially further entrenching his appointees on the Fed Board]
Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Federal Reserve isn’t just another personnel move—it’s the placement of Trump’s Reset architect inside the very institution that will help carry out America’s most ambitious economic overhaul in generations.
If you’re still unfamiliar with what Trump’s Reset entails, I strongly recommend checking out Matt Smith’s comprehensive analysis. He’s done the heavy lifting of connecting dots that were only hinted at in Miran’s original white paper.
Without getting into the weeds, Miran, the mastermind behind what’s been dubbed the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” outlined a comprehensive plan to flip the U.S. dollar’s reserve status from a burden into a bargaining chip. To turn America’s towering debt from an embarrassment into leverage. And to reorient the entire global economic structure in Washington’s favor.
And of course, what makes this especially relevant right now—particularly for anyone with gold exposure—is the timing.
The yellow metal has been on a relentless march higher throughout 2025, setting multiple all-time highs and blasting past $3,400 an ounce just last month. Now, with Miran’s appointment to the Fed, we’re seeing exactly why smart money has been quietly accumulating the yellow metal all year.
But anyone thinking Miran’s appointment is simply about giving Trump another dovish vote for rate cuts is missing the much bigger picture. Gold isn’t just rising because of anticipated rate cuts. It’s been rising because informed investors recognized what Trump’s Reset strategy would eventually require: the systematic weakening of dollar dominance and a potential gold revaluation.
Again, I urge you to check out Matt’s report if you’re unclear on the specifics—he’s laid out the relationships and implications more clearly than anyone I’ve seen attempt it.
The upshot is that Miran’s appointment is simply the latest confirmation that this plan is moving from theory into practice. (And once you see what that implies for both the dollar and gold, it’s easier to understand why $3,400 gold may be only the beginning.)
Miran’s Fed Position Is a Game-Changer
I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but I can’t stress this enough.
This isn’t just about securing another dovish vote for rate cuts—Trump could have picked any yes-man for that. It’s about placing the architect of America’s monetary reset directly inside the Federal Reserve.
You see, the Fed doesn’t set tariffs, negotiate trade deals, or sign defense pacts—but it does control the single most important lever in Trump’s Reset: the cost and flow of money.
From his position as Fed governor, Miran will have a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), giving him direct influence over interest rates, money supply, and crucially, the Fed’s balance sheet operations. But more importantly, he’ll be positioned to coordinate monetary policy with the broader Reset strategy he designed.
Think about what this means in practical terms—and from Trump’s perspective. The Reset strategy involves coordinated dollar devaluation—but that requires the Fed to be on board. You can’t orchestrate a Plaza Accord (more on it below)-style currency adjustment if your central bank is fighting you every step of the way. With Miran inside the Fed, Trump gets someone who understands both the macroeconomic theory behind dollar devaluation and the practical mechanics of how to execute it through monetary policy.
Note: The U.S. dollar has already weakened more than 10% over the past six months. To put it in perspective, the last time the dollar fell this much early in the year was 1973—right after the U.S. finalized its break from gold and the fiat era fully took hold.
Miran’s appointment also signals something even more significant: the institutional capture of monetary policy. When Jerome Powell’s term expires in May 2026, Fed chairs are typically chosen from among existing governors. By installing Miran now, Trump is positioning his Reset architect to potentially lead the entire Federal Reserve system.
In short, it’s Trump making sure the Fed itself becomes a primary tool for carrying out his Reset. And there’s a very deliberate reason for that.
Trump’s Reset Needs the Fed on Side
Now, I brought up the Plaza Accord above because it’s the closest historical precedent to what we’re calling Trump’s Monetary Reset (or the Mar-a-Lago Accord).
You’ve probably heard of it.
On September 22, 1985, finance ministers from the world’s largest economies gathered at New York’s Plaza Hotel to coordinate a devaluation of the unnaturally strong U.S. dollar.
Naturally, outside the U.S., no one wanted a weaker dollar—it would make their exports pricier for American buyers. But, just like today, Washington applied pressure with tariffs, import surcharges, quotas, and pointed accusations of “unfair trade.”
And guess what? It worked. West Germany and Japan—the economic powerhouses of the day—caved.
But here’s what made the Plaza Accord actually work: the Federal Reserve was fully on board. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker coordinated closely with Treasury Secretary James Baker to ensure monetary policy backed the dollar devaluation strategy. He cut interest rates from roughly 12% to 6% between late 1984 and late 1986, creating the conditions for the dollar to fall. Without that cooperation, the Plaza Accord probably would have been just another piece of paper.
This is exactly why Miran’s appointment is so crucial. Trump learned from Reagan’s playbook—to execute coordinated currency devaluation, you better make sure your central bank is pulling in the same direction. By installing the Reset architect inside the Fed, Trump ensures that monetary policy will align with, rather than undermine, his broader economic strategy.
And what happened to gold in the wake of the Plaza Accord?
It surged. Take a look at the chart below.
After the Plaza Accord in 1985, gold jumped from about $320 per ounce to over $370 between September 1985 and March 1986. That’s in just six months.
Adjusted for today’s prices, that would be like seeing gold leap to roughly $4,000 an ounce.
But here’s the thing… If Trump’s Reset unfolds the way Matt and I believe it will, it won’t just be a repeat of the Plaza Accord—it’ll be that on steroids.
In today’s globalized and overleveraged economy, the ripple effects could be enormous. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold surge to $5,000–$8,000 per ounce as markets scramble to adapt.
* * *
Stephen Miran’s arrival at the Fed isn’t just a policy shift—it’s confirmation that Trump’s Reset strategy is already moving from blueprint to reality. The implications for the dollar, gold, and your personal wealth are enormous. We’ve been tracking the signs of this coming shift for months—the hidden gold run out of London, the quiet buildup of reserves, and now the placement of Trump’s Reset architect inside the Federal Reserve itself. If you’ve been wondering what all this means for your money—and how to prepare before the Reset accelerates—I strongly urge you to read our latest deep-dive: Get Ready for Trump’s Monetary Reset. Inside, you’ll see why central banks are scrambling for gold, how Trump’s team plans to “monetize America’s balance sheet,” and why we believe this could unleash the biggest wealth revaluation in half a century. Most importantly, you’ll learn the practical steps you can take right now to protect your savings—and position yourself to potentially profit. Click here to get the full story before the Reset leaves you behind.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 237
5. COMMODITY REPORT.LUMBER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.39%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 304.99 PTS OR 1.18%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 413.47 PTS OR 0.97% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.41%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1598 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1620/ Oil DOWN TO 64.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 68.00 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1598 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1620 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1596
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1620
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 304.99 PTS OR 0.48%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 413.47 PTS OR 0.97%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.25 EURO RISES TO 1.1626 UP 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.628//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.601…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7328Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.610 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.339
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.4450
3j Gold at $3373.50 Silver at: 38.65 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 44 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.26
3m oil (WTI) into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.601/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.628% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8064 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9378 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.302 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.937 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.711 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.000
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7520 UP 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.473UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.981 UP 0 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Slide, Curve Steepens After Trump Fires Fed’s Cook
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 08:29 AM
US equity futures are a tad lower as the yield curve twists steeper with 5Y yields flat, after Trump moves to fire the Fed’s Cook, sending the USD is weaker. A showdown looms with Cook saying that Trump has no authority to oust her and that she will not quit (previously the SCOTUS indicated that the Fed Governors could not be fired at-will but if it does decide that Trump fired her for cause, Powell would be responsible if he keeps her on after Trump has sacked her). As of 8:15am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2% even with Nvidia rising 0.5% ahead of its results on Wednesday. In premarket trading, semis are higher with Defensive sectors outperforming Cyclicals; large-cap Industrials are in the green. In Europe, major markets are all lower with France the biggest laggard on fears of gov’t stability; Germany and UK the relative areas of safety. Commodities are weaker, dragged by Energy. Key events today include the August Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index and July preliminary durable goods orders (8:30 a.m.), June FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home price indexes (9 a.m.), August Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions indexes and Conference Board consumer confidence (10 a.m.). All eyes on Nvidia earnings tomorrow.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.08%, Alphabet -0.2%, Tesla -0.4%). AMD (AMD) gains 2% after the company and IBM announced a quantum-centric supercomputing partnership. Here are some other notable movers:
EchoStar (SATS) soars 58% after AT&T announced an agreement to buy spectrum licenses from the satellite broadband communication company for about $23 billion, adding an average of about 50 MHz of low-band and mid-band spectrum to AT&T’s holdings. AT&T (T) shares are up 0.6%.
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) rises 1.8% after its experimental obesity pill helped patients lose 9.6% of their body weight in a trial that moves the company one step closer to a potential approval.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) climbs 3% after the S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the automated-electronic broker will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Aug. 28, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) rises 6% after announcing the acquisition of Purvala Bioscience, a Boston-based biotech company.
Semtech (SMTC) gains 3% after the semiconductor device company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that’s in-line with expectations.
Key corporate news:
Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental obesity pill helped patients lose 9.6% of their body weight in a trial that moves the company one step closer to a potential approval.
EssilorLuxottica SA, the maker of Ray-Ban sunglasses, is exploring a potential deal to increase its stake in Japanese optical equipment manufacturer Nikon Corp., people with knowledge of the matter said.
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. shares climb as much as 4.7% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the automated electronic broker will join the S&P 500 Index
Brevan Howard Asset Management is set to hand a minority stake to Abu Dhabi’s Lunate in a milestone agreement for the macro-trading firm that turned the emirate into its biggest risk center in just a year after setting up a local office.
Orsted A/S executives are working to reassure shareholders Tuesday after the Trump administration’s decision to halt one of the company’s two wind-power projects in the US raised questions about the viability of its proposed $9.4 billion stock sale.
Indonesia’s newly established sovereign wealth fund has sounded out investors on a plan to raise $3.1 billion by selling so-called patriot bonds at below-market yields, people familiar with the matter said.
Overnight risk appetite was jolted after Trump said he had fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for alleged criminal cause, stoking fears over the long-term outlook for inflation. The president also renewed his trade brinkmanship, threatening fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against digital services taxes abroad. Stocks and bonds were already under pressure after the optimism that followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole faded on Monday. Doubts about the pace of easing are lingering ahead of an inflation report later this week, expected to highlight sticky price pressures.
“If the Fed is perceived as caving to pressure from the administration and lower rates prematurely to placate the White House, it risks inflation becoming more entrenched,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Since longer-dated yields trade primarily off inflation expectations, this pressure is boosting the 30-year Treasury yield.”
For the Fed, swaps imply about an 80% chance of a Fed quarter-point rate cut next month, with at least one more expected by year-end. Forcing out Cook would give Trump an opportunity to secure a four-person majority on the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors. Her term wasn’t set to expire until 2038. Trump said he had “sufficient cause” to fire Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Fed Board in Washington, based on allegations that she made false statements on one or more mortgage loans.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% led by French assets which extended losses for a second day as investors fretted that Prime Minister Bayrou’s proposed confidence vote risks toppling his government. The CAC 40 slid 1.7%, leading declines across European bourses. Construction and banks sectors are among the worst performers, while mining and health care shares are leading gains. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Bunzl shares rise as much as 6.3% after the value-added distributor delivered first-half results broadly in line with expectations, reaffirmed its outlook and resumed its share buyback
DiaSorin climbs as much as 4%, the most since mid April after Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight as the bank continues to see strong prospects for the European diagnostics sector
Huber+Suhner shares gain as much as 3.3% after Baader raised the recommendation to add from sell, citing strong growth ahead thanks to the firm’s optical circuit switch, which allows data centers to operate more efficiently
Zurich Airport shares gain 3.1%, the most since May. Vontobel says first-half results topped expectations with strong travel demand, especially among local passengers
Filtronic shares jump as much as 11% after SpaceX agreed to buy £47.3 million worth of the gallium nitride E-band product from the communication
French stocks are the worst-performers in Europe on Tuesday after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou unexpectedly announced a confidence vote for next month, prompting a selloff in local assets
British retail stocks drop after a raft of downgrades at Deutsche Bank. Analysts expect a squeeze in discretionary spending power as UK consumer confidence weakens amid concerns over expected tax increases and rising inflation
Commerzbank shares fall as much as 6.3% after BofA downgrades the German lender to underperform from neutral, saying that its valuation appears stretched
British American Tobacco shares slide as much as 2.9% as the maker of Dunhill, Rothmans and Camel cigarettes says CFO Soraya Benchikh is stepping down with immediate effect, after a little more than a year in the job
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as a rally in Chinese equities paused amid signs of overheating, while earlier advances in the Japanese yen weighed on export-focused stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.1%, with tech firms Alibaba and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in the Philippines, Japan and Hong Kong were among the biggest decliners in the region. Chinese gauges ended the day lower, after recording a few strong sessions on optimism that more retail money will flow into the market. Red flags are emerging following the surprise rally in onshore shares that’s mostly driven by liquidity rather than improved economic fundamentals. Japanese stocks underperformed in the region, as gains in the yen pressured exporters. Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate policy was exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s move to oust Governor Lisa Cook, which weighed on investor sentiment. Elsewhere, South Korean stocks fell as investors grow impatient for concrete corporate reform measures and clearer insight into US tariffs’ impact on earnings.
“The threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve has exacerbated its difficulties in responding to a challenging economic and political environment,” according to a note from the UBS chief investment office. “The next move of the Federal Reserve remains the focus of attention, as investors are closely monitoring signs of further policy shifts.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared an earlier 0.3% drop to trade little changed, while the euro swung between gains and losses as the common currency got caught between Fed noise and French political risk.
In rates, treasuries are mixed with 30-year yields up 4 bps to 4.94% while two-year yields slip after Trump ousted Fed governor Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud, setting up a legal fight with the central bank, which he’s aiming to remake in pursuit of interest-rate cuts. With shorter-maturity yields little changed to lower, curve spreads widened, pushing 5s30s over 115bp for the first time since 2021 even as Treasury auctions of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes is set to begin. The 30-year is about 2bp higher on the day near 4.95%. Short-maturity yields reflected higher probability of Fed rate cuts, with the 2-year lower by about 1.5bp; swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions continue to fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October and a second one by year-end. Month’s final coupon auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note sale at 1pm New York time; WI yield near 3.68% is lower than 2-year auction results since last September. French 10-year yields slip 1 bp to 3.51% as the spread over Germany widens by another 2 bps to the widest since April.
In commodities, WTI crude drops 1.3% to near $64 a barrel. Spot gold rises $10. Bitcoin rises 0.7%.
Looking at today’s US economic data calendar we get the August Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity gauge and July preliminary durable goods orders (8:30 a.m.), June FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home price indexes (9 a.m.), August Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions indexes and Conference Board consumer confidence (10 a.m.) Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed President Barkin repeating his Aug. 12 remarks on the economy (time TBD). We also get Nvidia’s results out after the US close tomorrow (with a +33.9% gain, Nvidia has again been the best performer in the Mag-7 year-to-date, but the past couple of quarters saw it deliver smaller earnings surprises after its euphoric growth during 2023-24). Rounding out US events, in tariffs, the “de minimis” exemption will end this Friday, while additional 25% tariffs on India (taking the total levy to 50%) are due to come into effect on Wednesday
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.8%
DAX -0.6%, CAC 40 -1.8%
10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.3%
VIX +0.6 points at 15.37
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1206.27
euro +0.1% at $1.1634
WTI crude -1.2% at $64/barrel
Top Overnight News
Donald Trump escalated his battle to exert more control over the Fed by moving to fire Lisa Cook over allegations she falsified mortgage documents. Cook said the president has no authority to oust her, and she won’t quit, setting the scene for a legal battle. Trump’s move may become a test of the Supreme Court’s intentions when it signaled earlier this year it would shield the Fed from at-will removal of board members. BBG
The U.S. will increase tariffs and impose export restrictions on countries that tax or regulate U.S. tech firms, President Trump said on Monday evening, in his most direct threat to retaliate against nations that he views as discriminating against companies such as Google and Meta Platforms. WSJ
Trump said on US stakes in companies, that he wants to get as much as he can and hopes to have many more cases like Intel, while he added there will be other cases.
A senior Chinese trade negotiator is heading to Washington this week for what is expected to be the first dialogue in the U.S. capital, according to people familiar with the matter, as both sides seek to establish regular communication during an extended tariff truce. WSJ
An announcement regarding the US-Japan trade deal involving a $550 billion investment vehicle is due this week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox. BBG
The US outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India. A draft notice said the levies would apply from 12:01 a.m. ET tomorrow. BBG
Refiners in India, among the largest buyers of Russian crude, are planning to trim their purchases in the coming weeks, a modest concession to Washington’s hawks less than a day ahead of a hike in US tariffs, but also a signal that the country has no plans to sever ties with Moscow. BBG
France’s minority government looked increasingly likely to be ousted next month after three main opposition parties said they would not back a confidence vote which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced for September 8 over his plans for sweeping budget cuts. RTRS
The intensifying Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian refineries has taken some 13% of Russia’s fuel production offline, according to analysts. Sanctions imposed by the West after the 2022 invasion, meanwhile, have limited Moscow’s ability to repair infrastructure and service remaining installations, and forcing them to ration. WSJ
The Fed’s John Williams said the neutral interest rate may not be much different than before the pandemic. He didn’t elaborate but the latest median estimate of the neutral rate among Fed officials was 3%, up from 2.5% prior to Covid-19. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
US President Trump threatened on Truth Social to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove discriminatory actions such as digital taxes, legislation, and rules against US tech companies, while he also threatened export restrictions on tech and chips.
According to Politico, citing Top Trade MEP Lange, the European Commission is expected to reveal its proposals to lift tariffs on US industrial goods and cars.
South Korean President Lee’s office said Lee and US President Trump talked about shipbuilding and that Trump stressed his support for Lee, while it added that the mood from the meeting was good enough that a written joint statement was unnecessary and the meeting was an opportunity for the leaders to get close to each other, rather than discussing the specifics on trade.
South Korean adviser Wi said details on trade talks still need to be determined and progress has been made on modernising the alliance, while Wi added that Trump and Lee had meaningful talks about nuclear energy.
Chinese top trade negotiator Li Chenggang is set to head to the US as talks resume and will meet with US Trade Representative Greer and senior Treasury Department officials later this week, according to WSJ. It was later reported that a US government spokesperson said Washington welcomes Chinese efforts to reduce its persistent and massive trade surplus with the US.
US President Trump’s administration reportedly weighs visa sanctions for EU and EU member state officials over the bloc’s digital services act, according to Reuters citing sources.
Canadian and US officials are to meet after Canada removes some tariffs, according to Bloomberg News.
Brazil’s Foreign Minister Vieira said Canada and the South American bloc Mercosur are to resume negotiations for a free trade agreement, while he added a joint decision was made to resume the negotiations and there will be an important meeting in October regarding Canada-Mercosur talks.
Indonesia’s chief tariff negotiator says the US agrees in principle to exempt palm oil, cocoa and rubber from 19% tariffs.
Morgan Stanley expects Fed to cut rates by 25bps in September and December (prev. saw no rate cuts in 2025); now expects 25bps cut in March, June, Sept and Dec in 2026, taking terminal target range to 2.75-3.00%
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly lower after global markets faded last Friday’s post-Powell dovish reaction, while Trump also moved to fire Fed Governor Cook and threatened to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove digital taxes and regulations against US tech companies. ASX 200 retreated amid a continued deluge of earnings releases including from the likes of Coles and Fortescue. Nikkei 225 underperformed with notable weakness seen in power names including TEPCO, and with Nissan pressured as Mercedes-Benz is to offload its 3.8% stake in the Japanese automaker, while participants also digested Services PPI data and Japan’s top tariff negotiator is set to travel to the US as early as this week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp pared early losses and returned to flat territory with some resilience seen after another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC, while it was also reported that China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang is set to head to the US and will meet with US Trade Representative Greer and senior officials at the Department of the Treasury later this week. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%) lacked demand amid Fed independence concerns and after Trump’s latest tariff warning, while participants also await earnings from NVIDIA on Wednesday. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday.
Top Asian News
RBA Minutes from the August meeting stated the board saw a strong case for a 25bps cut in the Cash Rate and judged some further reduction in the Cash Rate is likely needed over the coming year, while the stance of policy was still judged somewhat restrictive and it noted the pace of rate cuts would be determined by incoming data and the balance of global risks. RBA Minutes also stated that the board saw arguments for both a gradual pace of easing and for a faster pace, as well as noted the labour market was still a little tight, inflation remained above the midpoint, and domestic demand was recovering. Furthermore, it said uncertainty about spare capacity and the neutral rate also argued for gradual easing, but faster easing might be needed if the labour market was already in balance, risking inflation undershooting the midpoint.
Japan will invest USD 68bln in India over 10 years including in AI and chips, while India and Japan’s PMs intend to revise their countries’ joint declaration on security cooperation for the first time in 17 years, according to Nikkei.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) began the session on the backfoot and continue to languish around these levels, driven lower by notable underperformance in Paris; France’s Government is at risk of collapse after PM Bayrou called for a confidence vote. European sectors opened almost entirely in the red and continued their bearish bias throughout the morning. The underperformers are led lower by French heavyweights, hurting the likes of Banks, Construction and Insurance. French listed Socgen, BNP Paribas, Vinci, AXA and Alstom are the underperformers in the CAC, with losses ranging between -8% to -4%.
Top European News
UK think tank Resolution Foundation’s analysis highlighted a rapid weakening of the jobs market and warned the UK unemployment rate could hit 5% in the three months to August which would be the highest level since the start of 2021, according to FT.
French Finance Minister Lombard says certainly not resigned to Government falling on September 8; needs to find path to prepare the 2026 budget which will be a recovery budget.
FX
DXY is steady after Monday’s paring of the post-Powell downside. The DXY took a brief leg lower overnight after US President Trump posted a letter removing Fed Governor Cook from her position. If successful, this would put Trump on course for a majority on the Fed board. That being said, Cook has been defiant in stating that she will not resign and that President Trump has no authority to fire her. For today’s docket, US durable goods orders and consumer confidence are both due on deck. DXY held above support via its 50DMA at 98.06.
EUR is resilient despite an unfavourable Eurozone risk backdrop over the past 24 hours. French politics is back in the headlines after French PM Bayrou called for a vote of no confidence on his government’s fiscal plans on September 8th. Whilst the EUR is unfazed today, French assets are showing greater concern with the CAC 40 down over 2% and the FR/GE spread at its widest level since April. EUR/USD is back below its 50DMA 1.1651 and towards the bottom end of Monday’s 1.1603-1.1723 range.
JPY is slightly firmer vs. the USD but unable to hold onto the bulk of its APAC gains that were seen as the risk mood soured post-Trump/Cook. A decline in services PPI had little follow-through to the JPY. USD/JPY delved as low as 147.00 overnight, with the pair unable to test its 50DMA to the downside at 146.91.
GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD as UK participants return to market after the long weekend. UK traders return to little in the way of positivity however, with the latest BRC shop price data showing that UK food inflation in August rose to its highest level since February 2024. That being said, ING writes that EUR/GBP looks to stay offered this week as French politics prompts some reassessment of long euro exposure. Cable ran out of steam ahead of its 50DMA at 1.3492.
Antipodeans are both are marginally weaker vs. the USD alongside the downbeat risk tone. There was little follow-through into AUD from the RBA minutes release, which showed that the board saw a strong case for a 25bps cut in the Cash Rate and judged some further reduction in the Cash Rate is likely needed over the coming year.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1188 vs exp. 7.1670 (Prev. 7.1161)
Fixed Income
USTs are trading on the back foot today and lower by a handful of ticks, to currently trade in a 111-25+ to 112-03+ range. A tinderbox of catalysts for markets to digest on Monday and overnight, including trade developments and US President Trump’s decision to fire Cook. On the latter, ING highlights that “the US 2-30 year yield curve broke to a new cyclical high overnight at 122bp”, levels not seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Ahead, some Tier 2 US data, and with more focus on 2yr supply.
Bunds are outperforming across global paper today, seemingly catching a “safety” bid, following on from the increasing risks of a French government collapse (discussed in OAT section). Currently trading in a 129.15 to 129.45 range, with price action fairly muted throughout the morning.
OATs are lower today to the tune of around 10 ticks, extending on the prior day’s losses where French paper reacted to PM Bayrou’s calls for a confidence vote – it doesn’t seem likely he will get that (discussed below). In terms of price action today, OATs have traded in a 121.54 to 121.98 range. As it stands, the 10y German-French spread sits at 78.06bps, heading back towards levels seen on Liberation Day. As a reminder, in the prior session the spread widened roughly 4.3bps, a move which has continued slightly to make a total widening of 12.8bps at most (from Monday’s open to current).
Gilts are the clear underperformer today as UK paper returns from holiday, and plays catch-up to the broader losses seen in the prior session. Of course, French/US political uncertainty is factoring, but also as UK fiscal woes gradually come into the forefront of traders’ minds. As it stands, political commentary has been exceptionally downbeat on how Chancellor Reeves will enact her high growth/no tax increase budget this autumn.
Commodities
Crude futures trade with losses near USD 0.90/bbl amid a downbeat mood across global markets, and a broad reversal of geopolitical gains made on Monday as Ukrainian Strikes on a Russian oil terminal did not have a great impact to any barrels.
Spot gold is boasting gains, and is the clear outperformer in the metals space, with Silver flat and Palladium and Platinum continuing losses. The yellow metal benefits after US President Trump ordered the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, alleging false mortgage statements. XAU/USD is currently trading around 3,375/oz.
Copper outperforms in the base metals space, as it catches up to Chinese optimism after LME trade was closed on Monday. The industrial metal trades within USD 9,792.35-9,867.38/t parameters.
Chile’s mining regulator added requirements to restart sectors of Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine affected by the collapse.
Shanghai Futures Exchange lowers price limits and trading margins for aluminium alloy futures effective from close of settlement on 28 August
Geopolitics: Middle East
US President Trump said Gaza has to be settled soon, while he thinks they will have a good and conclusive ending within the next 2-3 weeks.
Australian PM Albanese said the Iranian government directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia and the Iranian ambassador will be expelled, while he added that operations at Australia’s embassy in Tehran have been suspended and Australian diplomats are now safe in a third country. Furthermore, the government will legislate to list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US and Russian government officials have discussed several energy deals on the sidelines of negotiations in August that sought to achieve a peace deal in Ukraine, according to multiple sources, via Reuters; talks included Russia purchases of US equipment
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good meeting with US Envoy Kellogg and that Ukraine values US readiness to be part of Ukraine’s security architecture, while he discussed with Kellogg how to exert pressure on Russia to hold “real talks” to end the war and said military cooperation is important with the US, particularly on purchases of weapons and accord on drones. It was separately reported that US and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet later this week.
US President Trump said regarding talks with Russian President Putin that they are also talking about nuclear missiles and stated “we” would like to denuclearise, while he added that Putin is reluctant to meet Ukrainian President Zelensky because he does not like him. Furthermore, Trump later commented that he discussed denuclearisation with Putin, and thinks that Russia and China would be willing to do it.
US President Trump said Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky should meet, while Trump said he may be there for the Putin-Zelensky meeting or may not and there could be consequences if they do not meet, but we will see what happens over a week or two and at that point, he will step in.
Geopolitics: Other
US President Trump thinks they can do something on North and South Korea and he looks forward to meeting with North Korean leader Kim, while South Korean President Lee said Trump is the only person who can solve the North Korean issue and that he would like to meet Kim this year.
South Korean President Lee said he agreed to work closely with US President Trump for peace in the Korean peninsula and noted that North Korea keeps developing its weapons programme as a result of sanctions. Furthermore, Lee said problems cannot be solved solely by pressuring North Korea and that North Korea reached a stage with capabilities of making 10-20 nuclear weapons per year, while it was separately reported that South Korean President Lee invited US President Trump to APEC to pursue a meeting with North Korean leader Kim, according to Newsis.
North Korea’s military said US-South Korea drills prove a US intention to occupy the Korean peninsula, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Jul P Durable Goods Orders, est. -3.8%, prior -9.4%
8:30 am: Jul P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
8:30 am: Jul P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior -0.8%
8:30 am: Jul P Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.17%, prior 0.3%
9:00 am: Jun FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.2%
9:00 am: Jun S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 2.08%, prior 2.79%
9:00 am: Jun S&P CoreLogic CS U.S. HPI YoY NSA, prior 2.25%
10:00 am: Aug Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -11, prior -20
10:00 am: Aug Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 96.5, prior 97.2
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Readers rejoining us after the bank holiday weekend in the UK will have plenty to catch up on since Powell’s dovish tilt in Jackson Hole drove a buoyant market mood just in time for the European close on Friday. That strong cross-asset rally lost momentum on Monday, while President Trump’s move last night to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook has led long-end Treasuries to sell off amid renewed concerns over Fed independence. Meanwhile in Europe, political risks resurfaced in France yesterday, where the minority government is at risk of collapse in a confidence vote expected on September 8. French assets struggled in response, with the 10yr BTP-OAT spread falling its lowest level since the start of the century.
Starting with the overnight Fed news, in a letter posted last night Trump claimed he had “sufficient cause” to dismiss Governor Cook and was removing her effectively immediately. This follows allegations that Governor Cook had applied for “primary residence” mortgages on two separate properties within two weeks of each other in 2021 before she became Fed Governor. In a statement reported overnight, Cook challenged the move, saying she will not resign as “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so”. So this could turn into the most market-relevant test so far of Trump’s ability to fire officials of independent government agencies. Were Cook’s dismissal to hold, it would open up another seat for Trump to fill on the seven-person Federal Reserve Board. With Stephen Miran nominated for the seat recently vacated by Governor Kugler and with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favour of a rate cut at the July meeting, this would increase the prospects of a dovish majority on the Board.
With Trump’s move seen as further escalating the US administration’s attempts to exert influence over the Fed, the dollar saw a kneejerk drop of nearly -0.4% on the news though it has largely reversed this decline as I type. Gold spiked by +1% and is holding on to most of this overnight gain, while futures on the S&P 500 (-0.14%) and the Nasdaq (-0.18%) are modestly lower. Meanwhile, the Treasury curve has seen a sizeable steepening, with the 2yr yield trading -0.7bps lower but the 10yr up +2.9bps and the 30yr +4.5bps to 4.93%. This has brought the 2s30s slope to 122bps, its steepest since January 2022 when the Fed had not yet started its post-Covid hiking cycle.
Earlier on Monday Treasuries had reversed some of Friday’s rally, with 2yr yields up +3.2bps (-9.7bps Friday) and 10yr up +2.5bps (-7.4bps Friday) even as markets still priced an 83% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September (up from 71% before Powell spoke on Friday). The S&P 500 (-0.43%) lost ground after having its best day since May on Friday (+1.52%). The headline decline was mitigated by continued gains for the Mag-7 (+0.38%) as Nvidia rose +1.03% ahead of its results after market close tomorrow. However, there were broad declines otherwise with 80% of the S&P 500 constituents declining, which was the most in nearly six weeks.
As a brief recap, Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole showed a couple of notable dovish shifts. First, as the Fed Chair suggested that “downside risks to employment” were rising and second, as he noted that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. This left a sense that in Powell’s view further labour market weakening was no longer needed to ease policy. Our US economists updated their near-term Fed view in response, now expecting a 25bps cut next month, with further 25bps cuts in December and March (see their reaction on Friday for more).
Remarkably, the moves over the past couple of sessions have been a near-carbon copy of those seen after Powell signaled impending rate cuts at Jackson Hole last year (see our EMR at the time). Both in terms of a strong cross-asset rally on Friday partially reversing on Monday, and in terms of the S&P 500 being within 1% of its all-time highs. Last year this was followed by 100bps of rate cuts over the next three FOMC meetings. This time round – with the fed funds rate now 100bps lower, unemployment stable at 4.2% over the past 12 months and core PCE inflation at 2.8% a smidgen higher than it was a year ago – it’s hard to see economic fundamentals justifying swift policy easing.
In Europe, the big news yesterday came in France where Prime Minister Bayrou called for a confidence vote as he seeks to force support for his budget plan that foresees EUR 44bn of fiscal tightening. The vote is due on September 8 and comments from opposition parties suggest that Bayrou’s minority government is likely to lose it. The government would need to achieve a simple majority in the National Assembly to survive, but officials from both the far-left and the right-wing populist RN said yesterday that they would vote against it. It would then require many of the centre-left Socialist MPs to support the government, but the Socialists’ leadership have suggested overnight that the Party will also vote against it. Should the government lose the confidence vote, President Macron may seek to nominate a different Prime Minister to form a government, who would then face the immediate challenge of passing a 2026 budget.
Alternatively, Macron could call snap elections. Current polls point to another fragmented outcome as happened after the summer 2024 snap vote, though with the far-right RN leading in polls, investors would be watchful whether it could translate this lead into an outright majority this time round.
Following the news, the 10yr OAT-Bund spread widened by +5.3bps to 75bps, its highest level since April, while the spread on Italian BTPs over OATs fell to just 9.8bps, its lowest since the start of our Bloomberg series in 1999. France’s CAC index (-1.59%) posted its biggest decline in three weeks, while the euro had its worst day against the dollar so far this month (-0.85%), closing at 1.1618.
Elsewhere in Europe, bonds and equities saw milder declines on Monday. 10yr bunds yield rose +3.6bps to 2.76%, helped by a decent August Ifo survey that saw its expectations series rise from 90.8 to 91.6, its highest level since February 2022. However, stocks still lost ground across the continent, with the Stoxx 600 down -0.44% as both the DAX (-0.37%) and FTSE MIB (-0.19%) posted modest declines.
Recapping yesterday’s other data releases, US new home sales totaled 652k in July, exceeding expectations (630k) as June data was revised higher from 627k to 656k, while median new sales prices edged lower. Meanwhile, we saw underwhelming regional readings in the Chicago Fed’s activity index (-0.19 vs -0.11 exp) and the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index (-1.8 bs -0.9 exp).
Overnight in Asia, equity markets are reflecting Monday’s losses from Wall Street as well as President Trump’s intensified rhetoric on tariffs yesterday evening. Trump’s comments included a threat of ‘200% tariffs or something’ on China if it does not export rare-earth magnets. He also warned of fresh tariffs and export restrictions on countries that do not remove digital taxes and associated regulations that hit American technology companies. Both the Nikkei (-0.88%) and the KOSPI (-0.94%) are seeing notable declines.
Chinese stocks are mixed this morning, with Hang Seng down -0.22% but the CSI (+0.14%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.11%) edging higher after rising for the previous four sessions. Indeed, the Shanghai Composite has surged by over +9% since August 1, reaching a new 10-year high on Monday on news of potential additional property market assistance. In a note yesterday (see here ), our China economists dissect what has driven the sudden risk-on performance of China’s on-shore market despite lacklustre economic data and discuss what to expect moving forward. Looking forward to the rest of the week ahead, Friday will see key inflation data out on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, our economists expect the July core PCE deflator to come in at +0.29% MoM (vs. +0.26% previous), bringing the YoY rate a tenth higher to 2.9%, with risks of this even rounding up to 3.0%. A 3% reading would be the highest since March 2024. In Europe, we expect the flash August CPI prints for Germany, France and Italy to show a slight uptick in annual inflation (see more from our European economists here).
Before that, we have Nvidia’s results out after the US close tomorrow. With a +33.9% gain, Nvidia has again been the best performer in the Mag-7 year-to-date, but the past couple of quarters saw it deliver smaller earnings surprises after its euphoric growth during 2023-24. Rounding out US events, in tariffs, the “de minimis” exemption will end this Friday, while additional 25% tariffs on India (taking the total levy to 50%) are due to come into effect on Wednesday.
2b European opening report
2c. Asian report
Stocks a little lower after Trump sends dismissal letter to Fed’s Cook & threatens against countries with digital taxes – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 02:04 AM
APAC stocks traded mostly lower after global markets faded last Friday’s post-Powell dovish reaction.
US President Trump threatened to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove discriminatory actions such as digital taxes.
US President Trump posted a letter removing Fed’s Cook from her position with immediate effect; Cook says she will not resign.
European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday.
FX markets are contained, EUR/USD is supported by the 1.16 mark, USD/JPY sits on a 147 handle.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods (Jul), Consumer Confidence (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP, Riksbank Minutes, NBH Announcement, E3/Iran Nuclear talks, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Fed’s Barkin & BoE’s Mann, Supply from Italy and the US.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks declined and all indices closed in the red with underperformance in the small-cap Russell 2000 index after rallying on Friday as markets largely unwound the recent post-dovish Powell moves, while sectors were predominantly lower, particularly defensives such as Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities, although Communication, Tech and Energy outperformed. There was little fresh fundamental news behind the reversal, but it is worth noting that even after Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole, money markets are still not fully pricing in a 25bps cut in September with a current implied probability of around 80% for such a move, while there is still key data to digest between now and the September meeting, particularly the US NFP report next week, as well as July PCE on August 29th and August CPI data on September 11th.
SPX -0.42% at 6,439, NDX -0.31% at 23,426, DJI -0.77% at 45,283, RUT -1.05% at 2,337.
US President Trump threatened on Truth Social to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove discriminatory actions such as digital taxes, legislation, and rules against US tech companies, while he also threatened export restrictions on tech and chips.
US President Trump said he does not mind renegotiating the South Korea deal but added that it doesn’t mean they will get anything, while he also stated that they will have serious discussions and are thinking about contracting some ships from South Korea. Furthermore, Trump later said regarding the South Korea meeting that he thinks they have a deal done.
South Korean President Lee’s office said Lee and US President Trump talked about shipbuilding and that Trump stressed his support for Lee, while it added that the mood from the meeting was good enough that a written joint statement was unnecessary and the meeting was an opportunity for the leaders to get close to each other, rather than discussing the specifics on trade.
South Korean adviser Wi said details on trade talks still need to be determined and progress has been made on modernising the alliance, while Wi added that Trump and Lee had meaningful talks about nuclear energy.
US President Trump said Chinese President Xi wants him to come to China, and he is going to allow Chinese students to come in, while he added that China has to give the US magnets and if they do not, the US will charge them 200% tariffs or something. Trump said at some point, he will visit China and maybe he will go to China with South Korean President Lee.
Chinese top trade negotiator Li Chenggang is set to head to the US as talks resume and will meet with US Trade Representative Greer and senior Treasury Department officials later this week, according to WSJ. It was later reported that a US government spokesperson said Washington welcomes Chinese efforts to reduce its persistent and massive trade surplus with the US.
US President Trump’s administration reportedly weighs visa sanctions for EU and EU member state officials over the bloc’s digital services act, according to Reuters citing sources.
Canadian and US officials are to meet after Canada removes some tariffs, according to Bloomberg News.
Brazil’s Foreign Minister Vieira said Canada and the South American bloc Mercosur are to resume negotiations for a free trade agreement, while he added a joint decision was made to resume the negotiations and there will be an important meeting in October regarding Canada-Mercosur talks.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump posted on Truth Social a letter removing Fed’s Cook from her position with immediate effect.
Fed’s Cook (voter) said no cause exists for her to be fired and she will not resign, while she added that President Trump has no authority to fire her and she will continue to carry out her duties. It was also reported that Bloomberg Intelligence noted that Fed’s Cook was likely to challenge the firing and could win reinstatement, while it added that mere allegations of fraud are not enough to meet the cause for removal standard.
Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the US has more room to reduce reserves, and as the reserve levels drop, it is preferable for the Fed to seek to meet lower long-run bank demand for reserves rather than the higher short-run demand. Logan said responding to banks’ increased short-run demand for reserves is a recipe for an ever-expanding central bank balance sheet and she repeated that the Fed balance sheet should hold primarily treasuries in the long run. Logan also commented that the Fed should explore ways to avoid over-emphasising the median view relative to diversity of views at the Fed, while she added there are also ways to improve Fed communications on the balance sheet and should continue to look to see if it is optimal to continue communicating a range for the Fed Funds Rate target.
US President Trump said on US stakes in companies, that he wants to get as much as he can and hopes to have many more cases like Intel (INTC), while he added there will be other cases.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mostly lower after global markets faded last Friday’s post-Powell dovish reaction, while Trump also moved to fire Fed Governor Cook and threatened to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove digital taxes and regulations against US tech companies.
ASX 200 retreated amid a continued deluge of earnings releases including from the likes of Coles and Fortescue.
Nikkei 225 underperformed with notable weakness seen in power names including TEPCO, and with Nissan pressured as Mercedes-Benz is to offload its 3.8% stake in the Japanese automaker, while participants also digested Services PPI data and Japan’s top tariff negotiator is set to travel to the US as early as this week.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp pared early losses and returned to flat territory with some resilience seen after another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC, while it was also reported that China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang is set to head to the US and will meet with US Trade Representative Greer and senior officials at the Department of the Treasury later this week.
US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%) lacked demand amid Fed independence concerns and after Trump’s latest tariff warning, while participants also await earnings from NVIDIA on Wednesday.
European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday.
FX
DXY marginally softened overnight after spending most of the prior day in recovery mode to claw back the majority of the losses seen in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole comments. Nonetheless, the latest pressure in the dollar was spurred by US President Trump who posted a letter removing Fed Governor Cook in a move which puts him on course for a majority on the Fed board, although Cook was defiant in which she declared she will not resign and that President Trump has no authority to fire her, while Bloomberg Intelligence noted that mere allegations are not enough to meet the cause for removal standard.
EUR/USD rebounded off yesterday’s lows after support held at the 1.1600 level but with the recovery limited after US President Trump threatened to impose substantial additional tariffs on countries that do not remove discriminatory actions such as digital taxes, legislation and regulations against US tech companies, while the single currency is also not helped by political uncertainty in France where the government is at risk of collapsing after the PM called for a confidence vote.
GBP/USD attempted to nurse some losses after retreating yesterday in quietened conditions owing to the UK Bank Holiday.
USD/JPY was choppy with an early dip seen amid the risk-off mood and as the dollar was pressured after US President Trump moved to oust Fed’s Cook.
Antipodeans marginally weakened amid a quiet calendar and with headwinds from the subdued risk appetite.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1188 vs exp. 7.1670 (Prev. 7.1161)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained subdued after partially unwinding some of last Friday’s post-Powell dovish moves, while there was a brief upside seen after President Trump posted a letter addressed to Fed Governor Cook informing of her removal from the Fed board with immediate effect. Nonetheless, the knee-jerk reaction to Trump’s attempt to oust Cook, which would put Trump on course for a majority on the Fed board, was only brief with Cook defiant and refusing to quit, while participants await incoming supply from the US and the key data releases later in the week.
Bund futures took a breather above the 129.00 handle after the prior day’s intraday recovery and with a EUR 4bln Bund issuance scheduled tomorrow.
10yr JGB futures were choppy following softer Services PPI data from Japan and an enhanced liquidity auction for long to super-long JGBs.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures mildly retreated in a slight pullback following the previous day’s geopolitically driven advances.
Russia’s Energy Ministry and oil companies are working on additional introduction of reserve capacities for refining growth, according to Interfax.
Pakistan will reportedly ask Qatar to defer LNG for years on weak demand, according to Bloomberg.
Canada’s Alberta province in talks to invest in Japan’s refining sector and Alberta could help fund the coker unit to enable Japan to process more Canadian heavy crude, according to Reuters sources.
Spot gold recouped early losses and more, as the dollar softened following President Trump’s move to fire Fed’s Cook.
Copper futures were rangebound with demand constrained amid the mostly risk-off mood for global markets.
Chile’s mining regulator added requirements to restart sectors of Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine affected by the collapse.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin saw two-way trade and gradually returned to flat territory after rebounding from support around the USD 109k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
RBA Minutes from the August meeting stated the board saw a strong case for a 25bps cut in the Cash Rate and judged some further reduction in the Cash Rate is likely needed over the coming year, while the stance of policy was still judged somewhat restrictive and it noted the pace of rate cuts would be determined by incoming data and the balance of global risks. RBA Minutes also stated that the board saw arguments for both a gradual pace of easing and for a faster pace, as well as noted the labour market was still a little tight, inflation remained above the midpoint, and domestic demand was recovering. Furthermore, it said uncertainty about spare capacity and the neutral rate also argued for gradual easing, but faster easing might be needed if the labour market was already in balance, risking inflation undershooting the midpoint.
Japan will invest USD 68bln in India over 10 years including in AI and chips, while India and Japan’s PMs intend to revise their countries’ joint declaration on security cooperation for the first time in 17 years, according to Nikkei.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Jul) 2.90% (Prev. 3.20%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump said Gaza has to be settled soon, while he thinks they will have a good and conclusive ending within the next 2-3 weeks.
Australian PM Albanese said the Iranian government directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia and the Iranian ambassador will be expelled, while he added that operations at Australia’s embassy in Tehran have been suspended and Australian diplomats are now safe in a third country. Furthermore, the government will legislate to list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good meeting with US Envoy Kellogg and that Ukraine values US readiness to be part of Ukraine’s security architecture, while he discussed with Kellogg how to exert pressure on Russia to hold “real talks” to end the war and said military cooperation is important with the US, particularly on purchases of weapons and accord on drones. It was separately reported that US and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet later this week.
US President Trump said regarding talks with Russian President Putin that they are also talking about nuclear missiles and stated “we” would like to denuclearise, while he added that Putin is reluctant to meet Ukrainian President Zelensky because he does not like him. Furthermore, Trump later commented that he discussed denuclearisation with Putin, and thinks that Russia and China would be willing to do it.
US President Trump said Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky should meet, while Trump said he may be there for the Putin-Zelensky meeting or may not and there could be consequences if they do not meet, but we will see what happens over a week or two and at that point, he will step in.
OTHER
US President Trump thinks they can do something on North and South Korea and he looks forward to meeting with North Korean leader Kim, while South Korean President Lee said Trump is the only person who can solve the North Korean issue and that he would like to meet Kim this year.
South Korean President Lee said he agreed to work closely with US President Trump for peace in the Korean peninsula and noted that North Korea keeps developing its weapons programme as a result of sanctions. Furthermore, Lee said problems cannot be solved solely by pressuring North Korea and that North Korea reached a stage with capabilities of making 10-20 nuclear weapons per year, while it was separately reported that South Korean President Lee invited US President Trump to APEC to pursue a meeting with North Korean leader Kim, according to Newsis.
North Korea’s military said US-South Korea drills prove a US intention to occupy the Korean peninsula, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK think tank Resolution Foundation’s analysis highlighted a rapid weakening of the jobs market and warned the UK unemployment rate could hit 5% in the three months to August which would be the highest level since the start of 2021, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Aug) 0.9% vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%)
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN/
inflation and lack of demand for Japanese bonds is killing Japan
(zerohedge)
Why Is The Japanese Bond Market Imploding: Goldman Explains
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 03:26 AM
As remarkable as it may sound, the blowout in US yields this week which was accentuated by yesterday’s woeful 20Y auction, which sent 30Year yields as high as 5.15%, just 2bps away from the Octoer 2023 high …
… is actually not the big rates story of the week. That would be Japan.
As we said on Monday, while everyone was obsessing so much over Treasuries, they forgot the real bond shitshow is in Japan, where the wheels in the bond market are about to fall off.
Everyone was obsessing so much over Treasuries, they forgot the real bond shitshow is in Japan where the wheels are about to fall off (and the countdown to YCC is back on)
Indeed, one day after a truly catastrophic 20Y auction (the one in Japan, not the US) which printed with the biggest tail since 1987, yields on both 30Y and 40Y JGBs hit an all time high.
This is unbelievable: for the second day in a row, Japan’s bond market is bidless, with both 30Y and 40Y JGB yields at record highs. Meanwhile as the world’s 2nd biggest bond market is imploding, the BOJ is pretending nothing is happening. pic.twitter.com/QT42R9NlTP
So what’s going on in Japan, and why are back-end yields in JGBs skyrocketing?
For one answer, we go to Goldman Japan rates trader Yusuke Ochi who not too long ago correctly warned that there will be material risk to the supply-demand imbalance for long end JGBs based on lifers ALM situation.
He was right, and as he writes overnight in a note looking at why JGB long-end yields are skyrocketing (available here to pro subscribers), the recent sharp rise in long end yields “is primarily due to the deterioration in the supply-demand balance becoming more visible – including the shift in life insurance company’s demand and tightened duration gap – which is not going away anytime soon.
The Goldman trader then suggests that to contain the ongoing meltdown in bond prices, the MOF would consider reduction in issuance amount for 30y and 40y or even buyback off-the-run bonds, for following reasons:
1. Lack of Demand from Life Insurance Companies
Their duration gap is already in negative territory, and sustained demand can hardly be expected. In particular, the 40y sector faces structural challenges due to the liability discount curve under new solvency rule, meaning there are inherently few natural buyers. Furthermore, past buyers have turned into net sellers of JGBs, making the supply-demand outlook extremely negative.
2. Fiscal Concerns
With the Upper House election approaching and nearly all opposition parties calling for a consumption tax cut, a major defeat for the ruling LDP could significantly heighten concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook. If events were to trigger a downgrade of JGBs, demand for the back end would likely deteriorate even further.
3. Impact of Asset-Intensive Reinsurance
After October 2023, a series of large block reinsurance transactions were announced. In this business model, reinsurance companies take over assets and liabilities from Japanese life insurers and replace the assets with higher-yielding products to earn a spread. JGBs are often sold in the course of these transactions, which is likely to have a negative impact on the supply-demand balance in the back end. (the impact can be seen more clearly in swap spread chart)
JGB 30y & 40y history – historical high level:
Industry-Wide Duration Gap Estimation – the duration gap was already in negative territory in last year. (-1.5 years as of Sep24’)
Lifers Monthly Net Purchase of Long End JGBs – they were even net sellers in fiscal year end
Finally, it’s not just the US basis trade that blew up recently: as shown in the chart below, the JPY Swap Spread has also traded record negative, amid announced asset-intensive year-end reinsurance transactions.
Turning away from the Goldman trading desk and to the bank’s Japan rates strategists, below we excerpt from a note by Goldman’s Bill Zu (available to pro subscribers) titled “30y JGBs – Canary in the Duration Coalmine“, who writes that “the sharp move higher in long-end JGB yields that started in mid-April has continued in recent days, with long-end yields near historic highs. 30y JGBs are now trading at similar yields to 30y Bunds, a pattern that has not been observed on a sustained basis outside of the ELB period.“
Similar to the trading desk explanation, Zu writes that the 30y sell-off is being “exacerbated by technical and positioning factors, including leveraged flattening positions and air pockets in long-end demand”, i.e., times when the market is not just completely illiquid, but also largely bidless (thank the BOJ for owning 52% of the entire JGB market).
This is because the sell-off is relatively isolated to the long-end, with 10s30s out-steepening the usual relationship to outright yield levels (Exhibit 1). At the same time, Goldman’s measure of 10y term premium has not risen materially, and the move in 2y, 5y and 10y rates is much smaller than average relationship to 30y rates would imply (Exhibit 2).
It is also notable that while dislocations along the long-end of the curve had been larger than usual in the early days of April (as measured by the 10s20s30s fly), these have since normalized but the steepening in 10s30s has stuck and continued (Exhibit 3). Swap spreads have tightened, most notably at the 30y point, pointing to specific JGB weakness in this segment (Exhibit 4).
That said, relative volatility pricing on swaptions between the 10y and 30y point on the curve has seen a sharp move, compared with the relative stability of recent years (Exhibit 5). This reinforces the view that it is the long-end of the curve in particular that are affected (not like there is much doubt). Also note that very curiously so far the 30y sell-off has not been associated with broader portfolio stresses in other Japanese assets, such as equities or the currency; precisely the opposite of the US, where bursts of Treasury selling are accompanied by stock market and dollar weakness.
This containment suggests that the local weakness in 30y JGBs may be short-lived or even reverse should potential technical and positioning tensions abate. But this does not signal the all clear for global bond markets, especially not in a context of policy uncertainty, elevated inflation and large government financing needs. Lately, Japanese long-end yields have seen the biggest volatility-adjusted increase – by some margin – across major bond markets (Exhibit 6).
The root cause of the move is a durable increase in the rate of inflation, coupled with the abovementioned rising supply/demand imbalance due to lower duration demand and persistently large government financing needs. This repricing stems from the same macro source as other G10 markets – inflation in Japan has consistently proven stronger than expected – if only due to soaring rice/food prices which the BOJ has zero control over…
… and forward inflation expectations have risen to cyclical highs, leading to a sustained repricing of equilibrium yields (Exhibit 8).
Like other countries, Japan’s surging yields are reducing duration demand from ALM accounts as liabilities shrink as a function of higher rates. And while politically motivated pundits are discussing the end of American exceptionalism, Japan is suffering through an all too real case of collapsing demand for its paper, even though Japan was never even that exceptional. Indeed, as Goldman notes, elevated volatility alongside uncertainty around the durability and pace of the BOJ tightening cycle has catalyzed a rethink of the attractiveness of long-end JGBs by some long-end investors such as life insurance companies.
Monthly transactions data from JSDA suggests that domestic holdings of long-end bonds has plateaued, adding to concerns around long-end supply absorption alongside elevated duration supply, manifesting in shockingly weak long-end auctions of late, including a 20Y auction tail that was the worst since 1987 (Exhibit 7). In other words all the talk about Japanese investors not buying US Treasuries and instead gorging on Japanese duration… is dead wrong.
This suggests that while positioning may have exacerbated the 30y move vs other curve points, the ultimate source of the repricing is the reduced demand for long-end bonds – a feature common to other markets, such as the UK… and increasingly the US if only temporarily until the whole “USD is no longer a reserve currency” mix up is resolved.
Given these common dynamics, Goldman notes that the risk of global bond market spillovers from higher Japanese rates is a frequent question from its clients. The evidence here is mixed. On the one hand, the bank claims that the fact that technical drivers are the main culprit of the JGB back-end move would suggest little implications for other markets. It is also the case that a common factor (the first principal component) across G4 yields explains comparatively less of the total variance at the longer end of the curve (e.g. 10y20y) than the belly or front-end, suggesting that back-end moves have been more idiosyncratic in nature (Exhibit 9).
And while it would be delightfully naive (if not retarded) to be hopefully optimistic and assume that a collapse in Japan’s long-end will not spill over to other markets, even Goldman admits that there is more evidence that long-end JGBs are starting to exert more pressure on global back-end yields. Applying the bank’s variance decomposition model (using the Rigobon, 2003 methodology) to 30y yields suggests that since the start of the year, 30y JGBs have contributed roughly 80bp of upward pressure onto G4 yields, the largest source of bearish impulse within the G4 (Exhibit 10).
Almost the entire amount has occurred after April 2nd, likely reflecting a combination of poor liquidity backdrop, cautious risk-taking, and rising fiscal concerns (which were also evident in other G4 markets).
Remarkably, what this means is that much – if not all – of the US rates selloff in the past month has been driven not by the US itself, but is a byproduct of Japan’s purge of back-end holdings!
So whether these spillovers continue or intensify will be a function of whether the technical drivers in Japan are resolved quickly, and whether the marginal allocation starts to skew towards JGBs given the relatively attractive yield pickup, even on a hedged basis (Exhibit 11).
But even here, should this prompt JGB buying from foreign investors continue, it still could contribute to pressure on other global markets as portfolios reallocate.
Ongoing volatility at the long-end of the JGB curve unlikely to reflect a new equilibrium, but the key question is how does volatility subside? One possibility is simply that a period of position-cleansing will exhaust itself, leading to long-end relief. But without a deeper macroeconomic policy response to the higher inflation environment, these episodes of volatility are likely to repeat themselves until policy intervention shifts market expectations to a new equilbrium.
Like during the Biden administration when Janet Yellen unveiled Activist Treasury Issuance, or the UK DMO, one policy response would be an ongoing lowering of the maturity of issued debt. However, the UK’s experience is that while this may help, it is unlikely to alter the fundamental price of long-end debt. Another possibility is fiscal restraint, however as history always shows, policy discussions do not point to meaningful tightening, and voluntary fiscal restraint never actually happens (as it is political suicide for the ruling party) absent a market crisis forcing it.
More likely catalysts in the near-term are decisions around BOJ monetary policy, including any tweaks to the QT path (including boosting Rinban operations – which is Japanese for POMO – at the long-end). On QT, growing consensus is that the BOJ will maintain a steady pace of decline in JGB purchases (to 2tn Yen per month from April 2026). To be sure, any dovish signs at the upcoming June meeting around long-end purchases or comments around market functioning could inject some confidence back into the long-end, although the absence of stress in broader markets makes this unlikely in response to the moves so far.
Finally, the BOJ will eventually return to a series of hikes in response to rising inflationary pressures, unless the entire economy implodes into a deflationary vortex first, which it very well might amid the global trade war. This should induce greater flattening pressure on the curve and contain long-end risk premium. But given financial stability risks associated with rapid hikes, a return to gradual (if any) hikes is the most likely path; Goldman economists maintain their view that the next hike will be in January 2026 (more likely never), with terminal rates reaching 1.5% at some point in the very distant future although by then the world will be drowning in recession. Until then, Goldman continues to forecast upward pressure on 5y and 10y rates as a result, with these curve points underperforming 30y JGBs on a 12m view.
Bottom line: how the current JGB volatility resolves remains unclear. But given the common macro drivers for duration weakness across major bond markets – elevated inflation and bond supply – this repricing has been stark and the longer it goes on unabated, the more damaging it will be both domestically and globally. Or as Goldman’s Zu concludes, “the 30y JGB bushfire may be due to local weather conditions, but the unfavorable climate for duration points to ongoing bouts of volatility across global curves.”
More in the full Goldman trading note (here) and “Canary in the Duration Coalmine” research note (here) both available to pro subscribers.
3C CHINA
4. European affairs and NATO
FRANCE
French Bonds, Stocks Tumble As Government Risks New Collapse In Weeks
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 10:41 AM
And just like that, Europe is gripped by another political crisis (but… but… the euro is soaring) after French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called a confidence vote that may topple France’s government as soon as September 8, prompting a selloff in French assets as investors hedged for more political uncertainty.
The conservative National Rally party, the leftist France Unbowed and the Greens all said they would vote against the Sept. 8 motion while even the Socialists – so pretty much the entire political spectrum in France – said they wouldn’t back the government. If a majority of lawmakers vote against Bayrou, which now appears to be the case, he’ll be forced to submit his government’s resignation. This would be overdue for a government which should have been bounced long ago.
The failure of another French government — the previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, lasted only 90 days — would underscore the tenuous position of President Emmanuel Macron, whose party and its allies lost any semblance of a parliamentary majority in 2024. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which became the largest party in the lower house in that vote, is calling for a new election
Here is a recap of all the latest developments:
French PM Bayrou has called for a Vote of Confidence (Article 49.1) to take place on Sep 8th
This vote requires a simple majority of votes cast, which is different to a Vote of No-Confidence (Article 49.3) which require an absolute majority in parliament
This makes it harder for the PM to win the vote, as abstentions do not help him – he will need MPs to explicitly vote for his government’s survival
If Bayrou loses the vote, Macron will have the option to dissolve parliament and trigger new parliamentary elections or to appoint a new PM
Speaking last week, Macron rejected the prospect of a second snap parliamentary election in as many years
Even if the PM wins the vote, there is still the issue of passing the budget which would likely trigger several votes of no confidence over October / November
This has put French risk back into the spotlight and we are now likely to see continued headlines and volatility in the region over the coming months. Indeed, for the second day in a row, France’s CAC 40 has tumbled more than 1%, Europe’s worst performing index, and the 2nd biggest two day drop for the CAC since the Liberation Day plunge.
It’s not just stocks: French bonds are also getting hammered with 10Y OAT yields spiking since the announcement…
… which is to be expected: as these Goldman charts show, French domestic stocks have performed well in recent months despite a widening in sovereign spreads which may well have sensed that this showdown is coming.
While Goldman naturally sees French domestic stocks as the most sensitive slice of the market to French political risks, the bank shows in the chart below other European indices and their long-term correlation with sovereign spreads (French and Peripheral spreads). Southern European indices, Banks, CAC 40, Cyclicals and the EUR tend to be most sensitive, while Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Low vol stocks and FTSE 100 are most positive positively correlated (in terms of relative performance) when sovereign spreads widen.
So how to hedge a worst case outcome? Below we lay out some ideas from Goldman’s Thilo Deller, writes that implied vols have moved higher in the front-of the curve, albeit from low levels. With the CAC vol term structure now slightly inverted here…
… Goldman prefers owning vol in Dec, where the likelihood of capturing a potential election is higher. While the implied move for the 8th of September has moved higher (~1.1% in SX5E), the options market has started to price increased volatility in the months following the vote on the back of potential elections and budget uncertainties.
Separately, for traders seeking broad French equity protection, these are the trades:
For more targeted French exposure Deller likes the bank’s French domestic basket. This has >50% domestic exposure vs ~15% for CAC. We can see that historically and on a day like today, it exhibits a high beta to French risk (today CAC -1.8% vs basket -3.8%).
Finally, here is an excerpt from a Goldman Q&A on the French Confidence Vote (full note available to pro subs)
Q1. What happened?
French Prime Minister Bayrou held a press conference yesterday (August 25) in which he announced that he would call a confidence vote on September 8.
The announcement was unexpected, as there had been no leaks or hints ahead of the press conference. The decision to call for a confidence vote is all the more surprising because the government does not have a majority in parliament, and because the upcoming budget vote was in any case likely to lead to several no-confidence votes.
Q2. How likely is the government to collapse?
The confidence vote will follow Art 49.1 of the Constitution, which requires a simple majority of votes cast (for or against, but excluding abstentions) against the government for it to collapse. This makes for a lower bar than a no-confidence vote under Art 49.3 of the Constitution, which requires an absolute majority of all votes (including abstentions) against the government.
At the time of writing, a majority of opposition parties in Parliament have announced they would vote against the government. These include RN (far-right), LFI (far-left), as well as the socialist, green, and communist parties (left), totalling close to 330 seats in Parliament. In comparison, the government is supported by the parties allied to President Macron and LR (centre-right), amounting to around 210 seats.
The government could survive the confidence vote if some of the opposition parties flip their vote in support or end up abstaining in large enough numbers. It could also be that turnout on the day of the vote is surprisingly favourable to the government, as only the votes cast for or against the government will count towards the tally.
But the most likely outcome at this point is that the government loses the confidence vote and is forced to resign. Prediction markets accordingly assign more than an 80% chance of PM Bayrou leaving office by September 30.
Q3. What would be the next steps?
If the government were to collapse, President Macron would have the choice between appointing a new government under the current Parliament or calling for new parliamentary elections.
The current Parliament makes for limited government options, because coalitions that include LFI (far-left) and RN (far-right) are unlikely to reach a majority. We think the most viable option remains the broad centrist majority spanning President Macron’s allies (centre), LR (centre-right), and the socialists (centre-left). President Macron could therefore re-appoint a centrist or centre-right PM (similar to current PM Bayrou or former PM Barnier), appoint a centre-left PM, or appoint a more technocratic PM. In that case, the change in government could be relatively swift, such as when Bayrou took office 9 days after Barnier was forced to resign.
The key difference to when the government collapsed last December is that early parliamentary elections are now possible again. President Macron has until now expressed a preference not to call early elections. But he might have to if a majority of parties in Parliament call on him to do so (in practice, by pledging to veto any government until elections take place).
Opinion polls have not changed significantly since last year and continue to show voters split roughly three ways between the far- and centre-left, President Macron’s allies and the centre-right, and the far-right. But three important differences are that the alliance between the far- and centre-left has collapsed again, that far-right leader Marine Le Pen is now banned from running for office, and that local elections are scheduled for March 2026.
Q4. What would be the implications for the budget?
The potential collapse of the government underscores that the targeted deficit reduction (from 5.4% of GDP this year to 4.6% next year) looks too ambitious. We had already assumed that the government would make concessions to opposition parties and eventually raise the deficit target for next year to 5%.
If President Macron were to appoint a new government under the current Parliament, political parties could still have time to find a compromise and pass a budget before year-end. But the initial budget proposal would probably be less ambitious and still require concessions during parliamentary debates. In that case, we would look for a deficit of 5.2% of GDP next year and we are raising our baseline forecast accordingly. We expect the government debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from 116% this year to 122% by 2030.
If President Macron were to call for new parliamentary elections, the content of the budget would depend on the composition of the new Parliament. Given that current polls still point to a political deadlock, the most likely budgetary outcome might not look very different from that under the current Parliament. But there would be two important differences. First, the range of possible budgetary outcomes would become wider, because one of the three main political groups might secure a majority. Second, the change in government would likely take longer, and might lead to renewed concerns regarding slippage on this year’s budget. In that case, we would look for a slightly larger deficit this year and next, compared with our new baseline forecast of 5.4% in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026. As a result, the government debt would increase further than in our baseline forecast.
A collapse of government and corresponding increase in deficit expectations would also make further rating downgrades more likely. Fitch (AA-, negative outlook) will report on September 12, Moody’s (Aa3, stable outlook) on October 24, and S&P (AA-, negative outlook) on November 28.
Q5. What would be the implications for growth?
The implications for growth would be ambiguous. On the one hand, a smaller deficit reduction into next year would imply a smaller fiscal drag and be positive for growth, all else equal. On the other hand, the tightening in financial conditions and increase in policy uncertainty would likely be negative for growth. Taken together, growth would likely continue to run below trend (which we estimate at 1% in France). We are therefore leaving our growth forecast at 0.6% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.
More in the full notes from Goldman research (here and here) and trading (here) both available to pro subs.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
very regretable but this is war and Hamas fires from inside hospitals!
(JerusalemPost)
Netanyahu’s office: Israel ‘deeply regrets’ strike on Nasser Hospital in Gaza
UN, UK, France, and Germany leaders condemn Israeli strikes on Gaza’s Nasser Hospital, which killed 20, including journalists, calling for an impartial investigation and ceasefire.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Gaza aid trucks and IDF operations.(photo credit: Flash90/Jamal Awad, Reuven Kastro)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSAUGUST 25, 2025 20:37Updated: AUGUST 25, 2025 22:43
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel deeply regretted what he described as the “tragic mishap” that occurred at Khan Yunis’s Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday.
The Israeli strike killed at least 20 people, including five journalists.
Xpost.com/israel-news/article-865289
“Our war is with Hamas terrorists. Our just goals are defeating Hamas and bringing our hostages home,” Netanyahu said.
World leaders, including those from the UN, UK, France, and Germany, condemned the Israeli strikes.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemned the killing of Palestinians in Israeli strikes, and called for a prompt, impartial investigation, spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.
Crowds gather in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Khan Yunis’s Nasser Hospital, August 25, 2025. (credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
“The Secretary-General recalls that civilians, including medical personnel and journalists, must be respected and protected at all times. He calls for a prompt, impartial investigation into these killings,” Dujarric told reporters.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that he was horrified after Israel struck the hospital, killing at least 20 people, including five journalists.
“Horrified by Israel’s attack on Nasser hospital. Civilians, healthcare workers and journalists must be protected. We need an immediate ceasefire,” Lammy said in a post on X/Twitter.
The IDF acknowledged striking the area of Nasser Hospital and said that IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir had ordered an inquiry. It added that it “does not target journalists as such.”
French President Emmanuel Macron referred to the strikes as “intolerable.”
The German Foreign Ministry said it was shocked by the killing of several journalists, emergency responders, and civilians.
“The attack must be investigated,” the ministry wrote in a post on X.
UN Special Rapporteur on Palestine Francesca Albanese reposted a picture of a camera allegedly belonging to one of the journalists killed. The original post referred to the camera as the “weapon Israel fears the most.”
“This camera should be exhibited one day in the Genocide Memorial built in memory of the innumerable victims of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Shame on all journalists not raising their voice against the massacre of their brave Palestinian colleagues while documenting the genocide,” Albanese commented.
Who were the journalists killed?
Cameraman Hussam al-Masri, one of the journalists killed in the strikes, was a contractor for Reuters. Photographer Hatem Khaled, also a Reuters contractor, was wounded.
The officials in Gaza named the three other journalists as Mariam Abu Dagga, who the Associated Press said freelanced for the AP and other outlets since the start of the Gaza conflict; Mohammed Salama, who Qatar-based Al Jazeera said worked for the broadcaster; and Moaz Abu Taha. A rescue worker was also among those killed, the health officials added.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS LATER IN THE DAY
Six killed in Nasser Hospital were terrorists, IDF finds, as probe into tank shelling continues
Numerous IDF officials had already slammed the decision to use tank fire on a hospital, as opposed to other precise targeting measures and operations.
The site of an Israeli airstrike at the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, August 25, 2025(photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAUGUST 26, 2025 18:57Updated: AUGUST 26, 2025 19:54
The IDF on Tuesday revealed that six of the around 20 Palestinians killed in the military’s tank shelling of Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis on Monday morning were terrorists.
Four were Hamas terrorists, one an Islamic Jihad terrorist, and one was labeled a terrorist without a specific affiliation. However, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir did not make this declaration to clear the military of mistakes in the operation.
Rather, this was only the second release of additional details, with more probing necessary into why tank shells were mistakenly approved for the operation and who gave the order.
Curiously, the IDF statement distinguished between potential errors made by commanders in the field as well as commanders back at IDF Southern Command Headquarters in Beersheba.
Numerous IDF officials had already slammed the decision to use tank fire on a hospital, as opposed to other precise targeting measures and operations which have been used more often in the last two years.
The site of an Israeli airstrike at the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, August 25, 2025 (credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)
Also curiously, Zamir said that the target was a video surveillance camera and not the six terrorists. In other words, while there have been reports that the IDF Golani soldiers in the field had seen suspicious movements, the order to fire was given without knowing for sure that there were Hamas forces there, how many there were, or who they were.
According to the IDF, one of the six terrorists was also involved in aspects of the October 7 invasion, although videos have shown the individual carrying a flag into Israel, not specifically carrying out any of the around 1,200 murders.
The IDF admitted that the attack, or how it was carried out and its results, were a mistake already early Monday afternoon.
The issue immediately swelled to major global media coverage, partially because well-known journalists, including those from Reuters, were killed in the attack.
From the IDF message on Tuesday, clearly some, and likely the majority of these journalists were not Hamas.The IDF said it did not intend to harm journalists or innocent Palestinian civilians.
Earlier Monday, IDF sources told The Jerusalem Post the IAF was not in charge of anything related to any operation in that area. They said the “address” for managing any such attack would have been IDF Southern Command, which is headed by Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asur, although different levels of officials approve targets of varying levels of sensitivity.
In addition, the IDF did not deny that there were two separate rounds of fire on the hospital. The second round caused additional deadly harm to medical and media officials who came to the scene to try to assist after the first strike.
The IDF message on Tuesday did not address the justification for the second round of shelling.
The likelihood that there were two rounds of shell firing was condemned even more strongly in global media coverage. It appeared to be an issue that would be even harder to explain.
Generally, higher-level officials must approve an attack on a hospital, even if there is a terrorist in the vicinity.The IDF tries to avoid striking civilians, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin said Monday night, adding that it must sometimes pursue Hamas terrorists even when they hide in hospitals.
Oddly enough, Deffrin gave no specific information about the Hamas assets that were struck during the incident. That led to speculation that there were disagreements within the IDF about what the target was and whether it was negligent to fire at such a target using shells as opposed to a more surgical and precise strike.
Since Asur took command of IDF operations in Gaza in March, sources in the IAF have periodically slammed him for being less thorough in avoiding civilian casualties than his predecessor, Maj.-Gen. Yaron Finkelman.
IDF soldiers sit on top of tanks at the Gaza border, August 26, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)
IDF’s civilian-to-terrorist ratio likely the worst since October 7
The IDF’s recent ratios of civilians harmed compared with terrorists harmed have likely been the worst since the start of the war.
For much of the war, a ratio of 60% civilians harmed to 40% terrorists harmed seemed broadly accurate, various IDF officers said off the record. That would have put Israel in good standing compared with other countries that had to fight terrorists in urban areas with the systematic use of human shields.
But this was at the stage when the IDF was sometimes killing thousands of Hamas terrorists per week or month.In contrast, over the past half year, the IDF has said it had killed more than 2,000 Hamas terrorists. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, about 11,000 Gazans have been killed during that same period.
The IDF has cited numerous examples of Hamas exaggerating or downright inventing nonexistent mass civilian casualty incidents. But the IDF has not tossed Hamas’s estimates completely out the window, and it has declined to provide its own estimated civilian casualty tally – something that it always did in prior conflicts in Gaza.
Cameraman Hussam al-Masri, one of the journalists killed in the strikes, was a contractor for Reuters. Photographer Hatem Khaled, also a Reuters contractor, was wounded.
The officials in Gaza named the three other journalists as Mariam Abu Dagga, who the Associated Press said freelanced for the AP and other outlets since the start of the Gaza conflict; Mohammed Salama, who Qatar-based Al Jazeera said worked for the broadcaster; and Moaz Abu Taha. A rescue worker was also among those killed, the Gaza health officials said.
The hospital was reportedly operating at full capacity, treating more than 1,000 patients at the time of the strikes, Nasser Hospital Director Atef al-Hout told Al-Arabiya TV. More than 50 people were wounded, he said.
IRAN AUSTRALIA ISRAEL
Iran behind antisemitic arson attacks in Australia, Iranian diplomats expelled
Australia suspended operations at its embassy in Tehran and announced it would designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terror organization.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia , August 11, 2025.(photo credit: AAP/Mick Tsikas via REUTERS)ByMICHAEL STARRAUGUST 26, 2025 06:18Updated: AUGUST 26, 2025 10:57
The Islamic Regime of Iran was the mastermind behind at least two major antisemitic arson attacks in Australia and was likely responsible for more incidents among a wave of anti-Jewish episodes in the country since the October 7 Massacre, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and law enforcement officials alleged in a Tuesday press briefing, further declaring that as a consequence the Iranian ambassador to Australia will be expelled and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will be legislated as a terrorist organization.
The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) had gathered enough intelligence to determine that the Islamic Regime had directed the December 6 Adass Israel arson attack in Melbourne and the October 20 Lewis’ Continental Kitchen arson attack in Sydney.
“These were extraordinary and dangerous acts of aggression orchestrated by a foreign nation on Australian soil,” said Albanese. “They were attempts to undermine social cohesion and sow discord in our community.”
JPost Videos
Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that as a result of the acts of aggression on Australian soil, the Iranian ambassador to Australia was declared persona non grata. The ambassador and three other Iranian diplomats had seven days to leave the country. Wong said that this was the first time post-World War II that Australia had to expel an ambassador.
While Australia will maintain some diplomatic channels, Wong said that Canberra was withdrawing its own diplomatic mission to a third country and urged Australians not to travel to Iran or leave immediately if possible.
Congregants recover items from the Adass Israel Synagogue on December 06, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (credit: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)
“This has been a distressing time for many Australians,” said Wong. “The Albanese Government has been so determined throughout this period to keep our community united. We have sought to lower the temperature in Australia, and to not reproduce the conflict in the Middle East in Australia. I again urge others to consider whether their actions help those who want to divide our nation.”
Albanese’s announcement that the government would seek to legislate the proscription of the IRGC was welcomed by Australian Jewish community groups and the political opposition. Opposition leader Sussan Ley noted on X that her coalition had been calling for the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization for over two years, and further urged the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador a year ago after he praised deceased Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
AISO Director-General of Security Mike Burgess explained that the Iranian IRGC had orchestrated the two attacks, and likely others in Australia, using a complex web of proxies to hide its involvement — including the use of organized criminal elements.
In March, the Australian Federal Police and New South Wales Police claimed that a wave of Sydney area antisemitic arsons and vandalism was part of a crime ring’s plan to distract law enforcement and obtain reduced prison sentences in exchange for aiding in police investigations. Petty criminals were supposedly being hired by gangs to exploit the post-October 7 Massacre antisemitism. Law enforcement arrested at least 14 suspects for their role in the plot, including two men involved in the arson of the Kosher Lewis’ Continental Kitchen.
The man who was alleged to have directed the arson, now linked to the IRGC, was identified by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation as former gang leader Sayed Moosawi. According to court documents, Moosawi allegedly operated under the pseudonym “James Bond” and contracted Guy Finnegan and Craig Bantoft to commit arson against Curly Lewis Brewing – but the criminal determined that “he sent us to the wrong place.” Three days later, the similarly named Lewis’ Continental Kitchen was set ablaze, according to the ABC by Wayne Ogden and Juan Amuoi.
The News South Wales Jewish Board of Deputies said in a statement that the community was owed an apology by those who “sought to downplay the threat against the Jewish community or dismiss the campaign of terror targeting our community as a criminal con-job or hoax.”
“Our community firstly had to endure a summer of terror and then had salt rubbed in our collective wound through gaslighting and equivocation from some quarters about the extent of the threat,” said the board, demanding that the government not tolerate any support of the IRGC once the group had been proscribed.
Announcement comes days after second arrest in Melbourne arson attack
The announcement about the IRGC connection to the arson of the Adass Israel synagogue came only days after the announcement of a second arrest for the firebombing of the historic Jewish house of worship. A 20-year-old Meadow Heights man was arrested on August 14 and charged on Thursday for being one of three men who set the building Ripponlea ablaze and caused extensive damage.
On July 30, the task force charged a Werribee man, identified by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency as Giovanni Laulu, as another of the arsonist trio. Fourteen days earlier, a Melton South man was charged with stealing the vehicle allegedly used in transportation for the alleged arsonists, but he was not charged with directly setting fire to the building himself. The stolen vehicle, a blue Volkswagen Golf sedan, is believed by law enforcement to be the same used in the November 21 LUX Nightclub arson. In May, the Victoria Police charged a 20-year-old Pakenham man in relation to the incident.
The Jewish Community Council of Victoria thanked law enforcement for the revelation about the designs behind the Adass Israel attack, and urged the community to stand united as “proud Jews.”
The Executive Council of Australian Jewry also praised law enforcement for protecting Australians from terrorism, but noted that it had warned about the threat posed by the Iranian regime for years.
“This is not a regime that merely subjugates its own citizens and wages war in the Middle East through its proxies. It has consistently shown a willingness and capability to finance and orchestrate terror all over the world,” said ECAJ president Daniel Aghion. “Israel’s enemies are Australia’s enemies. This is apparent. The same regime that helped plan the October 7 atrocities, directed Hezbollah to open a second front against Israel, attacked Israel directly with ballistic missiles and threatened it with nuclear annihilation, is responsible for plotting and executing attacks against Australians.”
The Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council said in a statement that it welcomed the measures taken by the Albanese government, with AIJAC executive director Dr. Colin Rubenstein urging the government explore “additional measures it can take to retaliate for Iranian aggression, and further limit the threat the regime in Tehran poses to Australians, the Australian Jewish community, and our social cohesion.”
Zionist Federation of Australia CEO Alon Cassuto said in an X statement that the “the infiltration and normalisation of terrorism and extremism in Australia has been nothing but shameful,” noting that Australian politicians and figures had recently taken photographs in front of a photo of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Israeli Embassy in Australia said on X that the Iranian regime posed a threat to Israelis and Jewish communities around the world.
“Today, it became clear that this threat has reached Australian soil,” said the embassy. “The international community can no longer be complacent. Australia has taken a principled stand, others should consider following suit.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated Monday that Kiev plans to secure at least $1 billion monthly from European nations to purchase US weapons to continue his war against Russia.
Zelensky made the comment while speaking alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store during a press conference in the Ukrainian capital. President Donald Trump is seeking to move away from providing weapons directly to Kiev. He instead wants European nations to purchase US weapons for the Ukrainian military to continue the war.
The Ukrainian president also said Norway could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine with an emphasis on providing air defense and maritime security.
On Sunday, US Vice President JD Vance claimed Russia has been “flexible” and made “significant concessions” in some core demands as part of negotiations to end the war, including regarding US and European security guarantees.
“They’ve recognized that they’re not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kiev. That was, of course, a major demand at the beginning. And importantly, they’ve acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Vance stated while speaking on NBC News’ Meet the Press talk show on Sunday.
Last week, Axiosreported that senior officials from the US, Ukraine, and several European countries were discussing a proposal for security guarantees for Ukraine, likely involving US air power.
In an interview with Fox News, President Trump stressed no US troops would be sent to Ukraine, but that he was open to providing air support to European ground forces should they be deployed to the country.
Trump also said he thought Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to accept such US and European security guarantees for Ukraine.
However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said it “categorically” rejects the possibility of “a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries” inside Ukraine.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
fecal low life untermensche animals, middle eastern beasts, to rape & stab & murder Europeans & westerners; our daughters, wives, & they love the blond blue eyed ones! Trump MUST take hardest stance
Merkel’s “Welcome Policy” and Today’s Germany: American Student Stabbed to Death by Syrian in Dresden
on this, I am behind him in this, praise to him thus far hard stance, he must find these beasts and deal with them. Inside USA. Our women, daughters, must learn to kill on spot if life, once risk of death is imminent by these animals for they are in USA…learn to shoot to kill, legal gun, learn 2nd, Obama allowed them, Bush too, Biden did…Trump must finish this.
‘Guest post by Bernadette Conradson
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
In Dresden, a 21-year-old U.S. citizen was fatally stabbed by a Syrian national on Sunday, August 24, after intervening in a streetcar when women were being harassed.
According to police, the young man stepped in to defend the women and was attacked with a knife. He later died of his severe injuries.
One suspect, a Syrian, was arrested near the scene, while another accomplice is still at large.’
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
The Wellness Company isn’t chasing profits — it’s trying to help people recover. While the government continues pushing vaccines, The Wellness Company is focusing on real solutions.
From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
Anti-Trump Dem Dealt Devastating DefeatRep. Al Green (D-TX), who has represented the Lone Star State’s 9th Congressional District since 2005, is set to leave office after Republican-led redistricting shifted the district’s political balance, making it heavily Republican. The redistricting also affected Texas’s 18th, 29th and 33rd districts and was part of a broader effort to align congressional maps with population changes from the latest U.S. …READ MORE
FBI Data Reveals Major Oversight That Changes Popular Narrative: ReportA recent analysis by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) reveals that armed civilians play a far larger role in stopping active shooter attacks in the United States than federal statistics indicate.From 2014 to 2024, the FBI reported that civilians intervened in only 14 out of 374 active shooter incidents, a rate of 3.7 percent. CPRC’s research, however, identified 561 instances …READ MORE
Stacey Abrams Sets X Ablaze With Eye-Popping Comment About Trump, MAGAStacy Abrams, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate, and political commentator Ezra Klein recently explored President Donald Trump’s influence over the MAGA movement on Abrams’ podcast, describing it as nearly religious in nature and imbued with a “mystical power.” The discussion quickly attracted attention online, sparking debate over how Trump’s authority is perceived by his supporters. During the episode, Klein explained, “Donald Trump’s impulses …READ MORE
Trump Threatens New Investigation Into Notorious Political ScandalPresident Donald Trump on Sunday suggested a federal review of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) involvement in the “Bridgegate” scandal, following Christie’s appearance on ABC’s “This Week.” The president criticized Christie’s handling of the controversy surrounding the 2013 lane closures on the George Washington Bridge, which had paralyzed traffic in Fort Lee for several days. While two of Christie’s associates …READ MORE
Blue City Woman Sparks National Mockery Over Now-Deleted Post to TrumpA Chicago woman deleted her X account after facing backlash for a post criticizing President Donald Trump’s plans to deploy federal forces to high-crime cities.Jill Ciminillo, an automotive journalist who has long spoken out about crime in Chicago, opposed federal intervention in her city—even after suffering a recent carjacking that left her with a broken arm. In her message, Ciminillo wrote, …READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Cooked By State Capitalism
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 11:40 AM
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The Powell-induced equity rally took a breather yesterday as the S&P500 closed 0.43% lower, the NASDAQ 0.22% lower and the EuroStoxx 50 0.81% lower. Asian equities – perhaps still playing catchup from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech – had traded higher earlier in the day. China’s CSI300 closed up more than 2% and the Hang Seng gained 1.94% with notable lifts in rare-earth stocks after Beijing published new rules to tighten oversight of production and trading of the geopolitically-sensitive minerals. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.3% ahead of a Monday (US time) meeting between South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and US President Trump (more on that below).
There are consequential headlines everywhere this morning, but perhaps the most consequential for markets (in the very short term, at least) is Donald Trump’s announcement that he has fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, effective immediately. Cook was a Biden appointee who had recently come under pressure after being accused of mortgage fraud by FHFA Director Bill Pulte. Trump said in a letter to Cook that there was sufficient reason to believe that she had made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. He also said that in light of Cook’s “deceitful and potentially criminal conduct” he did not have confidence in her integrity and her actions called into question her “competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator”, presenting cause for her firing.
As noted in this Daily yesterday, Trump has been busily working over the Fed to bend it to the MAGA program. That program is winning the competition with China by reshoring production, controlling critical supply chains and scoring strategic wins by pulling allies tighter into the US orbit and forcing them to help isolate challengers to US supremacy. China has been playing much the same game for decades now and continues to do so, as illustrated by the recent tightening on controls of rare earth exports, which the United States can’t supply itself with and needs for defence and technology applications.
The MAGA strategy encapsulates a series of carrots and sticks to coax production back inside US borders. Tariff protection to penalise offshore competition and provide an implicit subsidy to local producers was step one, lower taxes and lower regulation through the One Big Beautiful Bill and DOGE is step two, cheap energy through friendly relations with Saudi Arabia and ‘Drill, Baby, Drill!’ is step three, and cheap capital by getting the Fed into a headlock and forcing it to follow the wishes of the executive is step four. Executing a ‘reverse Nixon’ by improving relations with Russia to split them off from their “no limits” partnership with China would have been a nice to have from the perspective of the administration, but looks increasingly unlikely.
Given that Trump is only six months into his second term and has already executed on most of the major planks of the MAGA economic program, it is clear that the economy is being re-made at an astonishing rate, and the commentariat is clearly struggling to keep up. Long term free market evangelists over at the Financial Times are now describing Trump as the ‘Dirigiste-in chief’, which of course he is. The Republican Party of Ronald Reagan is not the Republican Party of Donald Trump. Friedmanite ideas of free markets and low touch government are out and a strong executive hand on the economic tiller is now very much in.
As the FT notes, the examples of this are manifold: the US government’s ‘golden share’ that Trump extracted from Nippon Steel in exchange for approving its purchase of US Steel (Trump has previously said “if you don’t have steel [production], you don’t have a country”), deals to allow Nvidia and AMD to sell chips in China in exchange for the US government receiving 15% of the revenue, the Pentagon becoming the largest shareholder in rare earths producer MP Materials (in an effort to counteract the Chinese export controls noted above) and the US’s 10% stake in chipmaker Intel that was confirmed over the weekend.
The FT quotes the Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome comparing these “pretty darn bonkers” deals to Barack Obama’s effective nationalization of US automakers during the Great Recession of 2007-8. The comparison is fitting, but its perhaps worth noting that the Obama strategy managed to save those automakers while also allowing the US government to recover some of the cost by selling its stake in later years. A handy counterfactual might be Australia’s government bailout of Qantas during the Covid pandemic, when $2.7bn of taxpayer money was handed over, gratis, and none of it recovered once the company was back on its feet (because state ownership would have been ideologically intolerable). Which was the better deal for main street?
In many respects, the United States as the world’s pre-eminent Western, liberal democracy is responding to competition from China (not Western, not liberal and not a democracy) by mirroring Chinese economic practises back to China and much of the rest of the world. For the first time in a long time the United States is back in the game of economic planning with a coherent (albeit risky) economic, industrial, financial (for more on that, see RaboResearch’s recent piece on the emerging role of stablecoins here) and military strategy now adopted to achieve foreign policy objectives. Gone are the days of assuming that the market knows best in all applications and will deliver wealth and power if simply left alone to do its work.
These are all trends that have been flagged extensively in this Daily and in the work of RaboResearch’s Global Strategist Michael Every for many years now. None of this is should come as a surprise for the intellectually curious who cared to look, but markets still retain the capacity to be surprised by these sorts of statecraft moves. Many markets currently pricing for perfection –or for the assumed continuation of a single globalized system of prices – in the most imperfect of market conditions run the risk of being mugged sooner or later.
Turning back to President Lee’s visit to the White House, these trends are again evident. Trump continues to engage in a kind of aeroplane diplomacy employed in previous trade agreements by securing commitments from Korean Air to purchase 100 (made in the USA) Boeing jets, while also securing commitments from Hanwha to assist with increasing shipbuilding capacity at its facilities in the US by 8-10x and seeking to take “ownership” of land leased from South Korea to host US military bases.
Notably, within the last 24 hours Trump has similarly applied aeroplane diplomacy to China by saying that China was “intelligently” withholding rare earths from the US, but that the US would retaliate by withholding critical aircraft parts. Trump said that “we have tremendous power over them, and they have some power over us”. “We have much bigger and better cards than they do… If I played those cards, that would destroy China. I’m not going to play those cards.” While relations appear relatively cordial at the moment, the potential for bifurcation clearly remains. “If we want to put 100%, 200% tariffs on, we wouldn’t do any business with China. And you know, it would be OK too, if we had to.”
Following his meeting with Trump, President Lee also said that South Korea would “take on a more leading role in maintaining security on the Korean Peninsula”, beginning by increasing defence spending in much the same fashion that European NATO members were recently forced to do by the United States. Tellingly, when asked whether South Korea could continue to rely on the United States for its security while reaping economic benefits from trade with China (South Korea’s largest trading partner) Lee said “[Korea] can no longer maintain the same approach as in the past… It is no longer possible for Korea to act or make judgements in ways that run counter to the U.S. basic policy direction.”
Australia and New Zealand (and Japan?), who plan to spend less on defence that Korea does now and who also have their security underwritten by the United States while profiting from China as their largest trading partner are now very much on notice
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Ontario getting killed with the Trump tariffs:
Ontario Sheds 38,000 Jobs Amid US Tariff Impact on Manufacturing Sector
A worker is seen at at a steel manufacturing plant in Windsor, Ont, on Jan. 16, 2025. Reuters/Rebecca Cook/File Photo
Ontario has lost 38,000 jobs in the past three months as the effects of tariffs imposed by the United States begin to emerge, a new report from the province’s financial overseer suggests.
Employment within Ontario’s industrial sector dropped by 3.5 percent in the second quarter of 2025, a recent report released by the Financial Accountability Officer of Ontario has found.
It’s a shift financial accountability officer Jeffrey Novak attributed to the early impact of the tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on Canadian imports, as well as on broad economic factors.
“The latest economic indicators suggest mostly negative results for Ontario’s economy in 2025 Q2, with losses in employment, manufacturing sales, wholesale and retail trade, and international exports,” Novak wrote.
The most pronounced drop in employment took place in the manufacturing sector, which experienced a loss of 29,400 jobs in the second quarter of this year, the financial watchdog found. That drop of 3.5 percent was the sharpest quarterly job loss in the sector since 2009, except for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Business, building, and support services experienced a decline of 14,900 jobs while the culture and recreation industry lost 12,900 jobs, according to the report. There were also notable decreases in employment within the transportation and warehousing sector and in agriculture at 8,600 and 8,500 respectively.
The loss of 56,600 full-time jobs was partially countered by the creation of 18,700 part-time jobs.
The unemployment rate has risen for the ninth straight quarter, now at 7.8 percent—the highest figure since late 2012, excluding the pandemic.
Novak said the impact of tariffs is especially noticeable in Windsor, a city that boasts a significant manufacturing sector, where the unemployment rate increased by 1.9 percentage points in the second quarter, reaching 11.2 percent, the highest in the province.
Trump slapped a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum, and a 25 percent tariff on car parts that are not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement this spring. He also announced last week that steel and aluminum tariffs had been implemented on 407 additional products, including railcars, heavy equipment, and furniture.
Provincial Response
Reacting to the report, the Opposition NDP accused the province of failing to adequately protect Ontario jobs, with MPP and finance critic Jessica Bell describing the stats laid out in the financial accountability officer’s report as “truly alarming.”
“Families can’t afford more government inaction while good, full-time jobs disappear from right underneath of us,” Bell said in a joint statement with Catherine Fife, the NDP’s critic for economic development, jobs and trade.
“We’re watching key sectors like trade and manufacturing deteriorate, while workers are left without security,” Fife said in the statement. “This government has yet to put forward a credible plan to protect jobs or provide families with the stability they need.”
Liberal finance critic Stephanie Bowman said on social media the FAO report is an indicator that the government is guiding the province “in the wrong direction.”
The province announced a $1 billion fund earlier this month to offer relief to businesses affected by steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs.
The Protect Ontario Financing Program is included in a $5 billion tariff-related support package Doug Ford’s Conservative government unveiled in its spring budget. The loan program is intended to support businesses in managing payroll, lease, and utility payments to help prevent closures and layoffs.
Businesses must have already exhausted federal tariff support programs, employ at least 10 individuals, and generate a minimum annual revenue of $2 million to be eligible for loans ranging from $250,000 up to $40 million.
A spokesperson for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said the government has also announced $70 million in employment and training assistance for workers in industries impacted by tariffs, and is allocating billions more to bolster the economy.
“With President Trump’s tariffs taking direct aim at our economy, our government is using every tool we have to protect the over 800,000 jobs in Ontario’s world-class manufacturing sector,” the spokesperson said in a media statement.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1626 UP 0.0012 PTS OR 12 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.601 DOWN 0.214 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3465 UP .0012 OR 12 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3853 DOWN 0.0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.39%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 304.99 PTS OR 0.48%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.41%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 490.77 PTS OR 1.94%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.39%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.41 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 413.42 PTS OR 0.97%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3376.90
silver:$38.66
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.25 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.166% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.627% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 50/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.329 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.601 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7305 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1653 UP 0.0040 OR 40 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.57 DOWN 0.240 OR YEN IS UP 24 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7450 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
Overnight, news of Lisa Cook’s firing will raise new questions about Fed credibility and independence. She has pledged to stay on, so this likely moves to the courts. But the die has been cast… dollar lower, curve steeper.
Source: Bloomberg
Solid macro today… The rally we have seen in stocks since Apr-9 is now coming alongside a rally in both Business and Consumer sentiment. Today’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved to -7 from -20 a month ago. And the Consumer Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also beat expectations coming in at 97.4 (albeit below last month’s revised higher index level of 98.7
Source: Bloomberg
In addition to the forward sentiment readings, we also got a backward (July) durable goods release, with core cap good orders up 1.1% (m-o-m), much better than the 0.6% decline we saw in orders in June. On the back of today’s releases, Goldman’s economists raised their 3Q GDP growth tracking estimate to +1.8%…
Source: Bloomberg
While most of the majors were tightly range-bound today, Small Caps outperformed amid another short-squeeze. Late in the day saw a bid put some lipstick on the otherwise quiet pig of a day as it seems the stock market couldn’t give a shit about Fed independence (as the market is already pricing in rate cuts)…
Mag7 stocks underperformed modestly today with the S&P 493 managing modest gains…
Source: Bloomberg
But realistically, the lull before the storm of tomorrow’s NVDA earnings after the close remains the week’s biggest focus (for now)…
Source: Bloomberg
A strong 2Y bond auction helped extend post-Cook-firing Treasury gains on the day but on the day the curve steepened notably with 30Y +2bps, 2Y -4bps…
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed the yield curve (2s30s) to its steepest since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds rose modestly today after Cook’s “firing”…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar drifted lower amid worries over Fed independence as alleged mortgage cheat Fed Governor Cook refuses to quit (despite receipts)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was bid after the Cook firing (holding above its 50DMA)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices tumbled after four days of gains as broad derisking (Cook chaos) weighed on overall sentiment and rising supply is also checking prices, with the Sept 1st end to the summer driving season likely to ease demand even as OPEC+ readies the final final 548,000 barrel per day tranche of its return of 2.2-million bpd of production cuts at the start of next month. Additionally, Russia’s major Volgograd refinery aims to resume operations at its drone-hit crude-processing units nearly a week earlier than initially planned amid a fuel crunch…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was slammed back to two month lows but found support at $109k and bounced back up towards testing its 100DMA at around $111k…
Source: Bloomberg
ETH outperformed BTC on the day as the whale rotation continues…
Source: Bloomberg
Still BTC seems cheap to global liquidity…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, with NVDA out of the way after tomorrow’s close, don’t forget September seasonality is not your friend…
The AI trade has paused in the near term.
First, the MIT paper arguing most AI projects aren’t yielding positive returns got unusual traction.
Second, Meta’s hiring slowdown (a non-event, but it hit sentiment).
Third, ChatGPT-5 was more sizzle than steak—overhyped.
Fourth, Altman’s bubble comments didn’t help.
Fifth, Apple’s paper reiterating that LLMs don’t actually “think” added to the mood.
NVDA is tomorrow.
DATA RELEASES
core durable goods orders rising at fastest pace
(zerohedge)
Core Durable Goods Orders Rise At Fastest Annual Rate in 3 Years
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 08:41 AM
Amid chaotic swings MoM driven by the variability of Boeing plane orders, analysts expected preliminary July data to show a 3.8% MoM decline (following June’s big plunge, following May’s big surge). The good news is that the actualk print was better than expected (-2.8% MoM) but still in the red for headline orders. This dragged down the YoY headline growth to 3.5% as the front-running of tariffs fades and earlier this month, Boeing Co. reported a fewer orders in July than in June.
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, ex-Transports, durable goods orders rose over 1.0% MoM (the fourth straight month of gains), lifting core orders 3.8% YoY – its strrongest growth since Nov 2022…
Capital Goods Orders, non-defense ex-aircraft rose 1.1% MoM (better than expected).
Non-defense capital goods shipments including aircraft, which feed directly into the equipment investment portion of the gross domestic product report, rose 0.7% after an upwardly revised gain a month earlier. Rather than orders, which can be canceled, the government uses data on shipments as an input to GDP.
The import/export tariffs – and the frontrunning of such – has clearly sparked chaos in the data.
end
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Slides In August As Inflation Fears Reignite
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 10:13 AM
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 1.3 points in August to 97.4 (versus 96.5 expectations and from an upwardly revised 98.7 in July).
The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell 1.6 points to 131.2 (from an upwardly revised 132.8).
The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – fell 1.2 points to 74.8 (from an upwardly revised 76.0).
Source: Bloomberg
How do you revise consumer confidence data?
“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
“The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index.’
“Meanwhile,” Guichard points out that “pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.”
Source: Bloomberg
Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to tariffs increased somewhat and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Meanwhile, references to high prices and inflation, including food and groceries, rose again in August.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August – up from 5.7% in July but still below the April peak of 7.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, August saw consumers’ outlook on stock prices deteriorate slightly, with 47.4% of consumers expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, down from 48.9% in July.
Conversely, 30.3% of consumers expected stock prices to decrease over the next 12 months, up from 28.1% in July.
The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise increased to 54.0% from 53.1% in July and fewer consumers expected interest rates to fall (20.9% vs 21.4% in July).
Source: Bloomberg
Among demographic groups, confidence fell for consumers under 35 years old, was stable for consumers aged 35 to 55, and rose for consumers over 55.
The evolution of confidence by income groups was mixed, with no clear pattern emerging.
By partisan affiliation, confidence weakened in August among both Republicans and Democrats but was little changed for Independents.
END
US Home Prices Plunge For 4th Straight Month In June
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 09:12 AM
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities fell for the 4th straight month in June (the latest data available from S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller data released this morning).
The 0.25% MoM drop was larger than expected and dragged the YoY price growth down to +2.15% – the weakest since July 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
The US is coming off its weakest spring selling season in 13 years after high prices and mortgage rates sidelined many would-be buyers.
With few eager shoppers in the hunt, sellers are warming up to discounts and other concessions in parts of the country where listings have piled up.
“June’s results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023,” according to Nicholas Godec, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years”
Among 20 major cities, New York still “stands as a stark outlier,” Godec said, leading the index with a 7% annual gain in prices. Following were Chicago, with a 6.1% increase, and Cleveland, at 4.5%.
Prices, meanwhile, are falling in former pandemic-era “darlings,” such Phoenix, Tampa and Dallas, he said.
Tampa’s 2.4% year-over-year decline was the biggest in the index.
On the bright side, given the shift lower in mortgage rates in recent weeks, we may see price pressure relieved…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices could re-acclerate once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Declining home prices (and the follow through into PCE/CPI calculations for Shelter costs) could more than offset any tariff-driven anxiety over the next few months.
The question remains, that after slashing rates by 100bps, home prices have started to decline (with significant lag)… is that what The Fed wants?
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES/NEWS
this ought to be fun: Trump fires Cook as Powell would not:
Lisa Cook’d: Trump Fires Fed Governor For “Potentially Criminal Conduct” Creating Another Opening On Fed Board
.@POTUS on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook: "I'll fire her if she doesn't resign. What she did was bad, so I'll fire her if she doesn't resign." pic.twitter.com/1vEv7k7ar8
But now that is moot as President Trump has fired her, effective immediately:
” I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position…
The Federal Reserve has tremendous responsibility for setting interest rates and regulating reserve and member banks. The American people must be able to have full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve.
In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.
At a minimum, the conduct at issue exhibits the sort of gross negligence in financial transactions that calls into question your competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator.”
There was a notable market reaction to this move with gold rallying as the dollar dropped and short-end bonds are bid (stocks lower)…
With rate-cut odds rising for Sept and more for December.
end
COOK’S RESPONSE:
this is going to be one hellava fight
Fed Governor Cook Hires Hunter Biden’s Lawyer As Trump ‘Firing’ Puts Powell Back In The Hot Seat
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 08:15 AM
Update (0830ET): Mainstream media is abuzz this morning with the news of Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook over her alleged mortgage cheating. Given that she has apparently refused to leave, this puts The Fed (and in particular Chair Powell) in an awkward position.
If they allow her to continue with her duties as Fed Governor, starting this morning, and the courts find that the President does have the authority to fire her, even if it’s months later during an appeal, anything she does on behalf of the Fed as a Governor starting today will not be valid.
And the Fed could be held responsible for allowing a non-employee to continue to act like an employee.
Restated, if the Fed allows her to stay and continue to be a Governor, and the court rules that Trump can fire her (again, even if it is later in an appeal), then Jay Powell has potentially committed a “for-cause” offense for which he could be fired.
(allowing a non-Fed employee to make decisions and policy on behalf of the Federal Reserve.)
Additionally, Cook has hired former first son Hunter Biden’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, to represent her.
In a statement, Lowell vowed to take “whatever actions are needed” to stop what he described as Trump’s “illegal action.”
As a reminder, Fed Governors resigning is not unusual in recent years:
2021: Dallas Fed president Kaplan busted for suspicious stock trades, resigns
2021: Boston Fed president Rosengren busted for suspicious stock trades, resigns
2022: Fed vice chair Richard Clarida busted for suspicious trades, resigns
2025: Lisa Cook vows to stay on
This is far from over.
* * *
Update (2330ET): Former Fed governor Lisa Cook says she will not resign, the Washington Post reports, citing a statement from Cook.
“President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” Cook said through a spokeswoman: WaPo
“I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022,” Cook said
Good luck with that plan when the FBI turns up tomorrow at your place of work.
.@POTUS on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook: "I'll fire her if she doesn't resign. What she did was bad, so I'll fire her if she doesn't resign." pic.twitter.com/1vEv7k7ar8
But now that is moot as President Trump has fired her, effective immediately:
” I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position…
…
The Federal Reserve has tremendous responsibility for setting interest rates and regulating reserve and member banks. The American people must be able to have full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve.
In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.
At a minimum, the conduct at issue exhibits the sort of gross negligence in financial transactions that calls into question your competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator.”
Most economic commentators ignore monetary aggregates and the negative effects on growth and investment of the constant increase in government spending. However, the reality is that we live in a world where the economic impact of new units of currency is diminishing and generating negative results in many cases.
In developed economies, anemic economic growth requires more monetary stimulus, and government spending absorbs most of the new credit, leading to weak productivity, poor growth and unproductive expenditure.
The U.S. M2 money supply rose to a record $22.02 trillion in June 2025, up from $21.94 trillion in May. Year-on-year (YoY) growth stands at 4.53%, reflecting an acceleration compared to last year’s 1.36% growth. This renewed monetary expansion is not leading to inflation because money velocity is not rising, and money supply growth is lower than the 10- and 20-year annual averages of 6.8% and 6.2%, respectively.
The government must understand that higher spending is not going to drive stronger growth. When a 4.5% money supply growth delivers a 2.5% real GDP estimated growth, it is showing that the economy needs more, and a 6.8% increase delivered just 2% with a $2 trillion increase of government spending between 2021 and 2024; it shows that more money only bloats government and creates persistent inflation.
In 2021, money supply growth soared to 26.6%, and economic growth was only 5.7% during a massive reopening. In 2022, money supply grew 5% and the economy barely lifted 1%. This means that money supply generated no multiplier effect on GDP between 2021 and 2024.
The trend in the United States is concerning unless the government really acts and cuts spending. The risk, if the administration does not reduce spending, is to follow the euro area and the UK into a stagnation spiral.
According to the latest Bank of England data, the UK’s M3 money supply reached £3.65 trillion in June 2025, posting a YoY growth of 3.19%. The economy is expected to grow less than 1% in 2025 and some estimates assume no growth at all. Why? Bloated government spending is crowding out credit and productive investment.
The euro area exhibits a similar pattern. As of June 2025, the M2 money supply is €15.71 trillion, an increase from €15.29 trillion a year earlier, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.76%. However, the five-year average M2 growth rate in the euro area is 5.94%, which has resulted in almost no real GDP growth. Furthermore, unfunded committed government liabilities mean that the money supply growth is likely to remain three times above GDP growth only to remain in stagnation.
Estimates for total global circulating money (M2 and equivalents) suggest roughly $123 trillion worldwide in 2025, to deliver the worst economic growth since the 2008 crisis. While this figure has ballooned over recent decades, YoY global money supply growth remains at around 4%, reflecting that central banks’ priority is to keep the debt bubble afloat. It is, therefore, no surprise to see that global public debt has soared recently.
Global public debt reached a record $102 trillion in 2024, up from $97 trillion in 2023, according to UNCTAD. This shows a much faster pace than pre-pandemic levels, with more than a third of countries—accounting for 80% of global GDP—now carrying higher and faster-rising debt than before COVID-19.
The reality shows that central banks are fuelling the fire of higher government debt and increasingly irresponsible fiscal policies, leading to a crowding-out of the private sector, higher taxes, persistent inflation and weak growth. The COVID-19 excuse does not work. Keynesians estimated that the response to the pandemic would drive stronger and more productive growth and what it has delivered is secular stagnation… However, persistent inflation remains a concern.
The lesson for the United States is simple. If you copy European and UK policies, you experience the same stagnation they created. The United States must cut spending faster and allow the money supply to flow to productive private investment.
end
this is a good move:
Trump Plans To Block Offshore Wind Farm Project Near Biden’s Beach House
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 09:20 PM
President Trump’s war on unreliable green energy is shifting into high gear, with the administration now targeting a massive offshore wind project planned off the coast of Maryland, according to Bloomberg. The move comes just days after the White House halted construction on an offshore wind farm off Rhode Island over unresolved national security concerns – and may also serve as a jab at far-left Maryland Governor Wes Moore, who has tried to out-green neighboring states with disastrous energy policies that have now morphed into a power-bill crisis.
The Interior Department is preparing to revoke a $6 billion permit for U.S. Wind’s planned development of up to 114 turbines, located 10 nautical miles off Ocean City – or just down the road from Joe Biden’s beach house in the liberal-elite enclave of Rehoboth.
The project was approved under the Biden-Harris regime last year and was slated to begin construction next year. It has been unpopular from the start with many Marylanders, who argue the windmills would pollute the natural surroundings.
Apollo Global Management and Toto Holding SpA back US Wind. The company told Bloomberg: “We remain confident that the federal permits we secured after a multi-year and rigorous public review process are legally sound.”
Last Friday, the Interior Department ordered construction halted on the 80%-completed Revolution Wind offshore project off Rhode Island, citing unresolved national security concerns under federal review. This sent shares of Orsted A/S, the developer of the offshore wind farm, crashing on Monday in European hours, down around 16%.
The student debt crisis isn’t a natural market phenomenon; it’s the predictable result of decades of government interference. Since 1980, average tuition and fees have increased by 1,200 percent, while consumer price inflation has risen only 236 percent over the same period. This massive increase has left students and families struggling to keep up, often forcing them to take on substantial debt just to attend college. Today, over 42.7 million Americans owe a combined $1.69 trillion in federal student loan debt. A combination of federal policies, including subsidized loans, government grants, bloated university budgets, and a complete lack of accountability, has fueled the relentless rise in tuition costs. As a result, higher education—once seen as a path to opportunity—has become a debt trap for millions.
Why 1980?
In 1978, Congress passed the Middle Income Student Assistance Act, making federally-subsidized loans available to nearly all students, not just those with low incomes. It took two years to fully roll out loans to the newly-eligible student population. Once 1980 began, tuition rates started their steady climb. Making student loans available to more people seems like a benign policy on its face, but it sent tuition prices soaring for decades.
Universities serve one of the poorest age/education demographics in the United States: young adults without a college degree. Since their target market was short on cash, universities had to be sensitive to tuition prices; otherwise, students couldn’t afford to attend. Before 1980, students had to work during college to pay as they went or work after high school to save as much as possible before enrolling. Once subsidized loans became available, students could borrow the full cost of college with the expectation of higher post-graduation earnings and easy debt repayment. Never mind the taxpayer picking up part of the interest expense. College administrators quickly realized that since students didn’t have to pay up front in cash anymore, price sensitivity was no longer a limiting factor. Universities could raise prices and pursue pet projects like social change, costly sports programs, bloated staffing, and luxurious amenities.
A study by the New York Federal Reserve found that for every dollar the maximum loan limit increased, average tuition rose by 60 cents. This astonishing pass-through rate makes raising subsidized loan caps completely ludicrous. Originally, only the poorest students needed subsidized loans. But as more loans originated, tuition spiraled out of control, requiring more students to borrow until we reached today’s crisis of unaffordable tuition.
Follow the Money
The vicious cycle is obvious. So why not stop raising the loan maximums? Because higher education is a $200+ billion industry. Even in the public university system, an entrenched bureaucracy is getting wealthy off high tuition. The corrupt cycle looks like this: university administrators and faculty unions donate to left-wing super PACs. In return, they ask for increased student loan limits and more federal grants under the banner of increasing “affordability” for students. Universities then raise tuition and funnel the new money into raises, administrative expansion, and campus construction projects. Then, faculty members continue indoctrinating students to vote for far-left candidates, and the racket continues.
“Between 1976 and 2018, full-time administrators and other professionals employed by those institutions increased by 164% and 452%, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of full-time faculty employed at colleges and universities in the U.S. increased by only 92%, marginally outpacing student enrollment which grew by 78%.”
University administrators are not using the increased tuition revenue to create smaller class sizes or improve student’s education. They are inflating the bureaucracy to create a colossal social justice organization.
Graduation now depends on ideological coursework; every student in the California State University system’s 23 campuses must take a class in ethnic studies or social justice. The point is twofold: indoctrinate students in radical leftist ideology and create education jobs for graduates with useless degrees like San Francisco State’s Social Justice Education program. It’s a pyramid scheme designed to enrich the academic elite and cement progressive dogma in the young professional class.
Universities are so effective at converting students into activists that the education system can’t even afford to employ them all. We have begun to see the private sector’s culture shift to placate the radical employees coming out of colleges. So many young adults have fallen under the spell of left-wing cultural ideology that an entirely new industry has appeared out of thin air. “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” training and consulting is now a $15 billion industry. Firms now feel obligated to create mandatory training programs under pressure from young employees. These consulting fees are nothing but tributes to activists in exchange for a “Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free” card in case an employee says something in public contrary to leftist social doctrine. While universities have succeeded at getting rich by indoctrinating students and poisoning our culture, they’ve also buried an entire generation in debt.
The Collectivists’ Role
The same collectivists who built this broken system now insist on fixing it—by expanding it. As Bernie Sanders described in a recent interview with Joe Rogan, the solution to a $500,000 medical degree is more subsidies.
He sees public colleges gouging students with government-backed aid and calls for even more intervention. He lacks the self-awareness to see that his ideology created this crisis. His support for ever-growing bureaucracy and government control led to a $1.69 trillion student debt bomb, with 42.7 million borrowers.
Now he’s adamant that this enormous financial burden be shifted onto taxpayers.
US higher education is a prime example of how collectivists take control of a system, corrupt it, and then raid taxpayer coffers to cover the damage. All the while, they accuse small-government advocates of being heartless and blame them for the very crisis the collectivists created.
The Forgotten Taxpayer
Lost in this conversation is the taxpayer, who’s also getting shafted. State governments continue to fund bloated universities because even federally-subsidized tuition isn’t enough to pay for the massive bureaucracy. Meanwhile, taxpayers are forced to cover the interest on ballooning student debt.
Americans who couldn’t afford college and chose to work, are now paying taxes to subsidize the degrees of their higher-earning peers. This collectivist pyramid scheme is a naked power grab designed only to expand the education system, enrich insiders, and reward those who continue to partake in the scheme.
end
great ruling!
Supreme Court Rules That Trump Can Slash $783 Million In DEI Research Funding
The Trump administration is free to eliminate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of research funding on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) following last week’s ruling by the United States Supreme Court.
In a 5-4 vote, the justices lifted an order from a federal court judge in Boston that blocked $783 million in cuts made by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on health research grants that were being used to advance DEI efforts as well as “gender ideology extremism.”
BREAKING: In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court allows Trump to cut $783 million in DEI research funding
The Supreme Court was split on the 5-4 decision which marks another win for President Trump and clears the way for his administration to move forward with canceling hundreds of grants after U.S. District Judge William Young ordered the health-related grants restored in June.
Chief Justice John Roberts was among the dissenters in the high court’s decision and Justice Amy Coney Barrett voted with conservative majority to let the administration stop the grant funding.
Roberts and Barrett did land on the side of the dissent and allowed to stand a portion of the lower judge’s order that voided a number of NIH policies that targeted DEI programs at the direction of the White House.
The order from Young was handed down in June after grant recipients and 16 Democrat-led states filed lawsuits challenging cuts to programs at their state universities.
The plaintiffs had argued that stopping funding for the grants would disrupt the work of scientists by halting research and ruining data already collected.
Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch accused Young of defying the Supreme Court by not abiding by an emergency ruling it issued in April.
In that decision, Gorsuch wrote, “All these interventions should have been unnecessary,” adding, “When this Court issues a decision, it constitutes a precedent that commands respect in lower courts.”
According to Politico, this latest Supreme Court ruling is not the final decision on the legality of the grant terminations but the Trump administration will be able to continue withholding funding while the legal fight plays out.
end
this should be interesting!!!
U.S. Bars China, Russia, Iran From Undersea Cable Supply Chains
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025 – 02:45 AM
The U.S. government is overhauling undersea cable rules for the first time since 2001, tightening restrictions to keep companies linked to adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran out of the supply chain, according to Nikkei Asia.
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved proposed rules that bar adversary-based firms from working on U.S.-owned undersea cables or supplying related equipment. Approved companies will need cybersecurity plans and must certify their supply chains are free of such entities.
To encourage investment, the FCC will streamline approvals for U.S. firms and partners from Japan and Europe, cutting the typical two-year process. Reapproval will be required every 25 years instead of every three, as originally proposed.
Nikkei writes that the rules could benefit trusted suppliers like Japan’s NEC, though they face added screening obligations.
Globally, 90% of undersea cables are made by NEC, U.S.-based SubCom, and France’s Alcatel Submarine Networks. China’s HMN Technologies is expanding, particularly in Africa and the Pacific.
Undersea cables carry more than 95% of international data traffic and facilitate an estimated $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. Tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon are among the largest operators. Concerns over Chinese involvement intensified after incidents such as a Chinese-crewed ship damaging a cable in the Taiwan Strait in April.
END
Wild Theories Abound Over Gigantic “Comet” Careening Through Our Solar System In The Fall
A colossal interstellar space rock that was originally known as “A11pl3Z” but has since been given the designation “3I/ATLAS” will be making a very alarming run through our solar system in September and October. Based on their initial observations, scientists estimated that 3I/ATLAS has a diameter of approximately 20 kilometers, and that would make it larger than Manhattan. But now scientists are telling us that it is probably at most 5.6 kilometers wide. Even if it is only about 5 kilometers wide, we are still talking about an extinction-level event if it were to hit us.
Over the next couple of months, 3I/ATLAS will be zipping through our solar system at a speed of about 130,000 miles per hour, and scientists assure us that the gravity of the sun cannot significantly alter the trajectory of anything moving that fast.
But what if they are wrong?
As you will see below, 3I/ATLAS is supposed to fly past Mars at a distance of just 0.19 AU on October 3rd.
That is even closer than astronomers were originally projecting, and that is making some people nervous.
Hopefully the experts are correct and there is no threat of collision, because if this thing actually hit Mars it would be a cataclysm unlike anything that any of us have ever seen.
According to Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, it appears that 3I/ATLAS may actually be emitting its own light…
Interstellar object 3I/ATLAS — which is zooming through our inner solar system — appears to be emitting its own light, according to Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb.
The observation by Loeb, if verified, would contradict NASA’s classification of the Manhattan-size object as a comet, the scientist argues in a new blog post.
Obviously, more observations will have to be done in order to confirm this.
But there are essentially two options.
If this theory is not true and 3I/ATLAS is not emitting its own light, Loeb says that this giant space rock is probably about 12 miles long…
If 3I/ATLAS were reflecting light, it would mean the object was 12 miles long, which is improbable, according to the astrophysicist.
I cannot even imagine an object that is 12 miles long and that is traveling at 130,000 miles per hour.
Can you?
The second option is that 3I/ATLAS is emitting its own light, and that would be even more ominous, because Loeb believes that 3I/ATLAS could potentially be “a spacecraft powered by nuclear energy”…
Loeb speculated that the nucleus of the object could in fact be nuclear — and possibly an engine crafted by an alien people.
“A natural nuclear source could be a rare fragment from the core of a nearby supernova that is rich in radioactive material. This possibility is highly unlikely, given the scarce reservoir of radioactive elements in interstellar space,” Loeb wrote.
“Alternatively, 3I/ATLAS could be a spacecraft powered by nuclear energy, and the dust emitted from its frontal surface might be from dirt that accumulated on its surface during its interstellar travel,” Loeb conjectured, adding, “This cannot be ruled out, but requires better evidence to be viable.”
Loeb has also raised questions about its unusual trajectory.
“If you imagine objects entering the solar system from random directions, just one in 500 of them would be aligned so well with the orbits of the planets,” Loeb told Fox News Digital earlier this month.
The interstellar object, which comes from the center of the Milky Way, is also expected to pass near Mars, Venus and Jupiter, another improbable coincidence, he said.
“It also comes close to each of them, with a probability of one in 20,000,” he said.
For the record, I think that Loeb is way out in left field on this.
I do not believe that 3I/ATLAS is an alien spacecraft.
But I do believe that it is a very dangerous space rock.
It follows a retrograde orbit aligned within 5 degrees of the ecliptic plane, passing close to Venus at 0.65 astronomical units, Mars at 0.19 AU, and Jupiter at 0.36 AU. Loeb calculates the probability of such alignments at 0.005 percent for random arrivals.
When I originally wrote about this giant space rock, we were being told that it would pass Mars at a distance of approximately 0.4 AU.
But now we are being told that it will pass Mars at a distance of just 0.19 AU on October 3rd.
I know that is still a relatively safe distance, but it is a little too close for comfort in my book.
And could it be possible that our astronomers will modify their projections again as we get closer to October 3rd?
They have already more than halved the projected distance between 3I/ATLAS and Mars.
This is a story that we will want to watch very closely.
Following the close encounter with Mars, 3I/ATLAS is expected to be closest to the Sun on October 30th.
Subsequently, 3I/ATLAS is supposed to come closest to Earth on December 19th at a distance of approximately 1.8 astronomical units.
For an asteroid to wipe out most everything on Earth, it would have to be massive. Scientists estimate it would take an asteroid about 7 to 8 miles (11 to 12 kilometers) wide crashing into the Earth. Once it made impact, it would create a tremendous dust plume that would envelope the entire planet, block out the sun and raise temperatures where the asteroid made impact. Billions would die, and much of life on the planet would be destroyed. But, scientists believe some would survive.
In a game of Russian roulette with a standard Colt revolver, the chances of instant death are one-in-six.
Terrifyingly, that’s the same as the odds of humanity being wiped out within 75 years – everyone dead in a cataclysmic and total breakdown of civilisation, according to Oxford University futurologist Toby Ord, an expert on the threat of artificial intelligence.
Does it sound impossibly bleak? His colleague Nick Bostrom is more pessimistic still. He rates the possibility of human extinction by the next century as one in four.
Pulitzer prize-winning writer Jared Diamond is even less hopeful, predicting our species’ chances of survival beyond 2050 – just 25 years away – are no better than evens, or 50/50.
Our self-destructive behaviors are slowly but surely killing our civilization in thousands of different ways.
So even if we are extremely fortunate and a giant space rock does not hit our planet in any of our lifetimes, the truth is that our civilization would still be facing one existential crisis after another.
ESUs opened moderately higher on Sunday night on the usual buying for the Monday Rally. But sellers quickly appeared. ESUs did a 5-wave decline to a daily low of 6460.75 at 8:31 ET. Then, traders great and small bought for the Monday Rally. ESUs staged a jagged rally to 6482.75 at 12:45 ET.
At midday, the DJIA was down 240-ish; the DJIA was 180-ish; USUs were -9/32; gold was -1.50; and the NY Fang+ Index was +114ish. Nvidia and Google, both up ~2% at the time, led the rally. Nvidia reports results on Wednesday. The known trading universe expects fabulous results and want to be long NVDA.
Sellers reappeared when the afternoon arrived. ESUs fell to 6464.00 at 15:55 ET and sank to 6453.00 at 16:00 ET. Too many traders, great and small, were long; and there were few patsies to save them!
July New Home Sales 652k; 630k expected; May revised to 656k from 627k
@TruNorthAdvice: Existing homes median price is more than the new homes median price. And we have a 9.2 months supply of new homes. Our problem was locking in existing homeowners in low rate mortgages. Jerome already admitted to that a few pressers ago. https://t.co/0T99t7DhHG
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.19; -0.11 expected; June revised to -0.18 from -0.10 Production and Income -0.10, Employment, Unemployment and Hours -0.06, Sales, Orders and Inventories -0.02, Personal Consumption and Housing 0.0
When asked about the US taking stakes in companies after its 10% stake in Intel, Trump responded, “I want to try to get as much as I can.” WRONG! DJT is not the US Chief Investment Officer!
CSX Falls (as much as 6.65%) on Report Berkshire Not in Market for a Train Company – BBG
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks surged (DJIA record close); bonds rallied sharply on Powell’s ambiguous comments. The dollar rallied sharply. USUs rallied from -17/32 to -1/32 at 14:32 ET. Fangs rallied sharply in the morning, led by Nvidia and Google (AI delusions)
Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA declined smartly; ESUs hit a daily low at the NYSE close. USUs declined as much as 17/32. US stocks peaked at midday. Major equity indices closed near their daily lows. Bitcoin got hammered and rescinded its entire Powell J-Hole rally. Bitcoin correlates with S&P!
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why did stocks decline robustly after the Jackson Hole rally?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6448.09 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6466.89; 6438.06
Today – Traders, who are mostly delusionally bullish, will play for a Turnaround Tuesday rally; others will be induced to play for a TACO Tuesday Rally. Have you noticed that except for Wednesday (save Weird Wednesday during Expiry Week) and Thursday, the trading world have manufactured bullish biases for most days of the week? Reminder: Markets will be very thin this week!
Expected Economic Data: July Durable Goods -3.9% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.2%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.2%, Shipments 0.2%; June DHFA House Price Index -0.1% m/m; June S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.1% m/m & 2.2% Y/Y; Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence 96.5
For the 2nd straight night, ESUs and NQUs opened higher but quickly sank to modest losses.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6277; 100-day MA: 5970; 150-day MA: 5942; 200-day MA: 5948 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,163; 100-day MA: 42,665; 150-day MA: 42,889; 200-day MA: 43,051 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6439.32 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6116.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6336.88 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6387.52 triggers a sell signal
@TheBabylonBee: Somber Democrats Mourn DC Going a Record Ten Days Without a Murder https://buff.ly/rDKJDVP
@FoxNews (Mostly white) Protesters gather in Washington, D.C., to demand an end to increased federal presence amid President Trump’s crime crackdown. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1959750188823666708
@ThePatriotOasi: Governor of Maryland Wes Moore reveals over +300,000 people have LEFT Baltimore, Maryland due to CRIME. “Baltimore used to be a city of 920,000 now it’s a city of just under 600,000.” https://x.com/ThePatriotOasis/status/1959945032296714609
VP Vance: “Why are democrat governors angrier about federal law enforcement helping to clean up there streets than they are about the fact that those streets need to be cleaned up to begin with.” https://x.com/BuzzPatterson/status/1960064723359268877
(Soon-to-be NYC Mayor) Zohran Mamdani wants to end all misdemeanor charges: ‘E-ZPass for criminals’https://trib.al/82wxrp1
@_StephanieMyers: AG Pam Bondi on Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s detention: “We have him under control, he will no longer terrorize our country. He’s currently charged with human smuggling.”
@nicksortor: REPORTER: “Why are the Democrats so emotionally attached to [Kilmar Abrego Garcia] who beats his wife and part of a terrorist organization?” TRUMP: “Because they think he is going to be good for votes… these people are DERANGED!…” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1960005043723116904
Il Gov Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson staged a protest against Trump’s plan to send troops to fight crime in Chicago. Both said there is crime is not a problem in Chicago. If Trump were as smart as he claims to be, he should invite Fredo Pritzker and Brandon to prove crime isn’t a concern by jettisoning their huge securities details. PS – Johnson said incarcerating criminals is “racist” and has been proven to be a failure in halting crime. https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1960096226805960939
TDS has Dems & their stooges vehemently advocating for illegal immigrant & big-city violent criminals! Only the GOPe could screw up this platinum opportunity!
Policing isn’t the problem in most big blue cities. It’s leftist judges and prosecutors that refuse to hold criminals accountable – and leftist legislatures’ soft-on-criminals laws! Ask a cop; they’ll tell you!
Damning study shows chilling public-safety threat posed by ‘reckless’ cashless-bail policies: ‘Imminent danger to communities’https://trib.al/qzJTwzU
Many big blue city politicians are vehemently against federal intervention in crimes is that a considerable number of big blue city politicians are owned by gangs, including ‘The Cartel.’ DJT should make this point!
Gangs and Politicians in Chicago: An Unholy Alliance (2011) In some parts of Chicago, violent street gangs and pols quietly trade money and favors for mutual gain. The thugs flourish, the elected officials thrive—and you lose. A special report. A few months before last February’s citywide elections, Hal Baskin’s phone started ringing. And ringing. Most of the callers were candidates for Chicago City Council, seeking the kind of help Baskin was uniquely qualified to provide… Baskin has deep contacts inside the South Side’s complex network of politicians, community organizations, and street gangs. as he recalls, the inquiring candidates wanted to know: “Who do I need to be talking to so I can get the gangs on board?”… He helped broker meetings between roughly 30 politicians (ten sitting aldermen and 20 candidates for City Council) and at least six gang representatives… The gang representatives conducted hourlong interviews, one after the other, talking to as many as five candidates in a single evening… The gangs agreed to set aside decades-old rivalries and bloody vendettas to operate as a unified political force, which they called Black United Voters of Chicago. “They realized that if they came together, they could get the politicians to come to them,” explains Baskin… Street gangs have been a part of Chicago politics at least since the days of the notorious First Ward bosses “Bathhouse John” Coughlin and Michael “Hinky Dink” Kenna, who a century ago ran their vice-ridden Levee district using gangs of toughs armed with bats and pistols to bully voters and stuff ballot boxes… While they typically deny it, many public officials—mostly, but not limited to, aldermen, state legislators, and elected judges—routinely seek political support from influential street gangs. The gangs funnel their largess through opaque businesses, or front companies, and through under-the-table payments. In turn, grateful politicians use their payrolls or campaign funds to hire gang members, pull strings for them to get jobs or contracts, or offer other favors… Chicago’s struggle to combat street gangs is being undermined by its own elected officials. And the alliances between lawmakers and lawbreakers raise a troubling question: Who actually rules the neighborhoods—our public servants or the gangs?… Muñoz, an admitted ex–gang member, has served on the City Council since 1993. Critics cite the alderman’s well-established ties to the Latino gangs in Little Village…https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/january-2012/gangs-and-politicians-an-unholy-alliance/
@CWBChicago: The great thing about Chicago is that when you are knocked unconscious, a security guardwill take your valuables out of your pocket and walk away… https://x.com/CWBChicago/status/1959968780001616147
The odious Raskin doesn’t realize that history shows that rampant crime induces people to opt for “Mussolini-style” leaders.
DOJ during Trump’s first term stymied, squashed probes on Comey, Clinton, Schiff and Hunter Biden – The IRS investigation into now-former President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, was also first slow-walked by the DOJ during the first Trump administration, according to whistleblowers. And special counsel John Durham — appointed by then-Attorney General William Barr — did not pursue prosecutions against members of the intelligence community or FBI (except for Kevin Clinesmith), despite the politicized nature of the Trump-Russia investigation… The DOJ under Trump’s first term would fail to thoroughly investigate the Uranium One saga and allegations of corruption related to the Clinton Foundation…then-Secretary of State Clinton helped approve the deal and that the Clinton Foundation may have stood to benefit from it… It was reported by Fox News in September 2020 that “aspects” of “Huber’s investigation into the Clinton Foundation have been assumed” by then-U.S. Attorney John Durham “as part of his review into the origins of the Russia probe.” But John Durham’s 2023 special counsel report said that his appointment order by then-Attorney General Barr did not include the Uranium One saga within its scope. https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/trump-doj-10-slow-walked-or-squashed-inquiries-comey-clinton-schiff-hunter
Cracker Barrel board member under fire for DEI background after restaurant ditches traditional logo:‘What qualified him?’ – Gilbert Davila, 61, joined the restaurant chain’s board in July 2020 and is also among its top individual shareholders… he’s owned a DEI consulting and strategy firm for 15 years that focuses on pushing DEI and DEI advertising.”… Prior to his work at DMI, Davila worked at The Walt Disney Company, where he served as the vice president of global diversity and multicultural market development from 2003 to 2010. Davila earlier held the role of vice president of multicultural management for Sears & Roebuck Company and was a marketing director for Coca-Cola USA… https://nypost.com/2025/08/24/us-news/cracker-barrel-board-member-under-fire-for-dei-background-after-restaurant-ditches-traditional-logo/
Top GOP senator defies Trump demand to bend Senate rules for his court picks President Donald Trump renewed his demand for the Senate’s “blue slip” tradition to be done away with and urged Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley to tell Democrats to “go to Hell.” A blue slip effectively gives Senate Republicans and Democrats the ability to veto district court and U.S. attorney nominees in their home states… “This is because of an old and outdated ‘custom’ known as a BLUE SLIP, that Senator Chuck Grassley, of the Great State of Iowa, refuses to overturn, even though the Democrats, including Crooked Joe Biden (Twice!), have done so on numerous occasions,” Trump said… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-gop-senator-defies-trump-demand-bend-senate-rules-his-court-picks
@FoxNews: “Look, Chris is a slob. Everybody knows it.” President Trump comments on possible investigation into former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over Bridgegate: “I always thought he got away with murder. He closed down the George Washington Bridge. You had medical people—you had ambulances caught up…He blamed the young lady that worked for him…She went through hell; she was a young mother …and another man went to jail—and Chris got off… He knew all about it…” https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1960011295648039121
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning concerning Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” making its way through Congress and Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The Big Beautiful Bill is going to explode the debt by $20 trillion in the next 10 years, and the credit downgrade has people like billionaire investment fund founder Ray Dalio worries about money printing to pay the $1.5 trillion in interest on federal debt.
Rubino warns, “The story with Moody’s downgrade isn’t that they did it, that they moved the US from triple A (Aaa) to one notch below (Aa1). It’s kind of insane that a government with 125% of GDP has an investment rating at all. Right?”
” They are clearly baking a gigantic currency crisis into the cake. Ray Dalio gets it right.
The rating agencies excuse or explanation for why the US still has an investment grade credit rating is that a country with a printing press can never default because it can just print enough money out of thin air to pay interest on its bonds, and it can do that forever.
So, it’s triple A credit, which does not make any sense at all because if you just print a lot of money out of thin air to pay your debts, then your currency goes down in value, and you are paying back your creditors with depreciating currency, which is a form of default.
The credit rating agencies are only looking at one kind of default where we just stop paying.
They are not looking at paying with cheaper currency year after year, and we stiff our creditors that way.
That’s why you don’t want to own Treasury bonds.
They are not going to stop paying interest, but the interest will not cover inflation going forward. So, you will have a net real loss until they just crater, and then you will have a massive capital loss.”
“We went back up to unsustainable interest rates really quickly. . . .
The Fed has promised a couple of rate cuts this year, and for interest rates to go up while the Fed is inferring easing means we are risking losing control of the financial markets.
If the Fed can’t control interest rates, we are monumentally screwed as a financial system. That’s kind of what we are headed for now.
In the US, interest rates are going back up, but if you want to look at an extreme case, look at Japan. They don’t just have 30-year bonds, they have 40-year and 50-year bonds and those are cratering, which is to say the interest rates on those bonds are spiking. Long term Japanese bonds used to be 0%. Now, they are 3% and change. . . . That change is huge.
So, Japan, the US, Europe, the UK and China, all of these big countries are basically making the same mistakes, and they are all headed in the same direction.
We are in the early stage of a currency death spiral where interest rates start to go up and the government can’t control that and then their debt goes parabolic . . . and this goes until everything breaks down.
We are in the third inning of that game, and the last couple of innings are going to be hair raising.
There are going to be currency crises, which we have never seen in our lifetimes. . . . It will be fun times if you are a gold bug.”
Rubino thinks gold will go up in price way over $10,000 per ounce, and he also expects silver to take off too. Rubino says,
“Silver is a great story because it is an industrial metal that is in deficit. Industrial uses are taking more silver off the markets than what they are producing, and that is going to lead to a shortage.
Even if you don’t look at silver as a monetary metal, the industrial demand makes it a buy right now.”
Rubino does not think the US will be in a civil war, but Europe is going authoritarian, and civil war is most likely there if Russia does not blow them up first. Rubino thinks America will do better than Europe, but we will still have trouble, chaos and a financial reset to work through.
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 5.20.25.
harveyorganblog.com 
