FROM MY no 4 SON STEPHEN //THROUGH AI: ENJOY
I made a different version on X:
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 13
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 141
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 97
323 C HSBC 1409
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 140
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 307
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 147
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 203
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 193
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 563 1362
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 8
709 C BARCLAYS 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 371
905 C ADM 14 2
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 2456 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 245,600 OZ or 7.702 TONNES
total notices so far: 2486 contracts for 248,600 OR 7 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 7702 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 38.510 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7702 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 38.510 million oz
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 54.080 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 49.825 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 166.34 TONNES GETTING A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 1844 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,057 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1025 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1025 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 950 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1844 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1025 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2869 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.48 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 14.345 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.48 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.23 PTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 222.58 PTS OR 0.89%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 110.32 PTS OR 0.20% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.02%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1339 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1297/ Oil UP TO 64.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.52 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1339 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7310 CONTRACTS TO 456,226 OI WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1382). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION //THURSDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 8692 CONTRACTS (OR 27.035 TONNES).THEN WE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ENDING THE STREAK OF 4 CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCES
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THESE PAST THREE MONTHS;
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: NONE FOR FAR
HISTORY: LAST SEVEN MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: 0 ISSUED SO FAR!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 7TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH AUGUST.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//FINAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,310 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH AUGUST CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2102 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST MONTH’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK FOR JULY. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE WITH MONTH END AUGUST SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED 4 WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY AND THEY WILL TRY AGAIN WITH RAIDS FINALIZATION OF AUGUST OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ENDS TODAY.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH AUGUST MONTH END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES. HOWEVER JUNE WHICH IS NORMALLY A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
AND NOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; 2602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 237 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAVE A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1382 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1382 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1382 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO OR TINY LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW APPEARED ON THE SCENE DISTORTING OI NUMBERS. HOWEVER STILL NOT IN FULL FORCE YET
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1382 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 7 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT: 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING/ENDING AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH AND NOW BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $18.20/ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION (PROBABLY SAVING FOR TODAY, FRIDAY) AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING!!
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
DETAIL SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH AUGUST TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE: 3
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: 7 ISSUED,
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 44.696 TONNES, THE HIGHEST MONTHLY EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!!!!!!
THUS 107.5117 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYS TRANSFERS) + 44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES.
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 27.035 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNESS
SEPT; 0 ISSUED SO FAR!
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.20
WE HAD 9790 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8692 CONTRACTS OR 869,200 0Z (27.035 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 173,462 contracts// weak//everybody vacating the comex???
speculators have left the gold arena
END
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
SEPT CONTRACT MONTH
AUGUST 29 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Into Asahi dealer 17,843.805 505 KILOBARS total deposit dealer 17,843.805 oz .505 tonnes |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRIES i) Into manfra: 143,372.456 oz (4.45 tonnes of real gold) total deposit: 143,372.456 oz 4.45 tonnes total weight dealer and customer acct 5.000 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2486 notice(s) 248600 OZ 7.732 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 116 contracts 11,600 OZ 0.360 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2486 notices 248,600 oz 7.732 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1 entries
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi dealer 17,843.805
505 KILOBARS
total deposit dealer 17,843.805 oz
.505 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRIES
i) Into manfra: 143,372.456 oz
(4.45 tonnes of real gold)
total deposit: 143,372.456 oz
4.45 tonnes
total weight dealer and customer acct
5.000 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entries
adjustments: 1
i) Brinks dealer to customer acct: 31,415.272 0z
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 2602 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 140 CONTRACTS
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IS AS FOLLOWS;
2602 NOTICES X 100 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
260,200 OZ OR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD. I THOUGHT WE WOULD HAVE 7 TONNES STANDING SO WE HAD A LITTLE BETTER SHOWING!
OCTOBER GAINED 1256 CONTRACTS UP TO 57,465
We had 2486 contracts filed for today representing 248,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 593 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 2486 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2486 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 2602 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2486 x 100 oz per contract) equals 248,600 OZ OR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (2486 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. 2602 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2486 x 100 oz) which equals 248,600 OZ OR 8.093 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 8.093 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,068,470.784 oz 64.34 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,925,852.749 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,426,967.559 or 666.46 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,498,885.190 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,365,161 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 602.33 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
AUGUST 29 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries: i) Out of Delaware 2121.150 oz ii) Out of HSBC 150,054.400 oz iii) Out of Loomis 50,604.250 oz total withdrawal: 202,779.800 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into the dealer Asahi; 39,426.800 oz total deposit 39,426.800 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 601,503.060 oz ii) Into Loomis 599,434.440 oz total deposit 1,200,937.500 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 7702 CONTRACT(S) (38.510 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2263 contracts (11.315 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7002 Contracts (38.510 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
1 deposit into dealer accounts
i) Into the dealer Asahi; 39,426.800 oz
total deposit 39,426.800 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 601,503.060 oz
ii) Into Loomis 599,434.440 oz
total deposit 1,200,937.500 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries:
i) Out of Delaware 2121.150 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 150,054.400 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 50,604.250 oz
total withdrawal: 202,779.800 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) CNT customer to dealer account of CNT 2,934,838.68 oz
b) Manfra: dealer to customer account; 56,366.570 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 199.957 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 518.232 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 9965 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 3266 CONTRACTS. THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IS AS FOLLOWS:
9965 NOTICES XX 5000 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
49.825 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING. I EXPECTED AROUND 40 MILLLION OZ TO STAND SO AGAIN WE HAD A PRETTY GOOD SHOWING FOR SEPTEMBER.
OCTOBER GAINED 151 CONTRACTS TO 2016
NOVEMBER GAINED 25 CONTRACTS UP TO 914.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:7702 or 38.50 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 65,453 fair//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7702 X5,000 oz = 38.510 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (9965) AND the number of notices served upon today (7702 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (7702) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(9965) minus number of notices served upon today (7702)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 49.825 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 49.825 million oz which is pretty good for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 199.937 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/518.232 million. 40.61%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.94 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 967.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.954 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/ PETER SCHIFF/S
PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Preparing for liftoff!
Gold and silver are ready to break into new highs as investors increasing lose faith in the dollar. Bear squeezes in gold and silver are now driving prices, which look set to move higher.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 29∙Paid |
For decades, the expansion of artificial supply in the form of paper derivatives has been used to keep gold and silver prices subdued. Could it be that it is beginning to be reversed, as gold leasing declines, and the shortage of physical supply particularly of silver begin to bite? And could this be compounded as evidence mounts of debt traps being sprung on G7 governments in the major currencies, leading to an escalating loss of faith in their values?
Gold and silver were both firm over the week, with gold in European trade this morning at $3410, up $40 on the week, and silver at $38.95 was barely changed. Prices this week peaked yesterday, but opening levels this morning were only marginally lower. Comex volumes in gold were subdued, but higher in silver.
Perversely, open interest in silver has declined, while the price rose. This is illustrated next:
Clearly, the shorts are being squeezed and are being forced to reduce their exposure to a market which the financial consensus is beginning to suspect is underpriced. For example, through its central bank a Saudi wealth fund invested $40m in silver and silver mining ETFs recently. And only this week the US Department of the Interior has included silver in its latest draft list of critical minerals, which is likely to confirm buying by financial institutions.
These developments are indicative of changing institutional sentiment towards silver, realising the greater danger is to be short instead of long.
Silver’s multiyear high of $39.30 only a month ago should not prove to be an obstacle to higher prices. The problem for the paper shorts is that in the face of rising physical demand there is little chance of them closing their positions. Liquidity is drying up at a time when momentum traders are likely to start buying futures and forwards. While the shorts will be reluctant to do so, the only solution open to them is to bite the bullet and let prices rise to a point where liquidity returns. This is confirmed by the bullishness of silver’s technical chart:
Adding to the silver shorts’ misery is the position in gold. As with silver, there is a developing squeeze on Comex futures:
In this case open interest collapsed as gold began to make new highs back in April, falling to oversold levels and barely recovering since. At the same time, gold has stubbornly refused to correct lower, indicating strong and persistent support in a pattern best illustrated in the technical chart which is repeated here:
This flat-topped pennant is a very bullish pattern, indicating rising support taking out profit-takers and leaving the market short of sellers. When it breaks above its supply line at $3440, experience of pennant patterns tells us that that the price will rise quickly to mirror the move in as a minimum objective — in this case $900+, possibly by the year end.
Again, we can see the difficulties this is already causing Comex and London. Recent up-days have been during their trading sessions, while prices have tended to pause in Asia overnight. Quietly, as well as central banks and sovereign wealth funds some big funds are beginning to accumulate bullion. Gold stand for deliveries on Comex so far this year are 878.3 tonnes, and net investment in physical ETFs is becoming consistent, albeit still at subdued levels. But when momentum traders get hold of this contract there can be no doubt about prices moving far higher.
The economic conditions driving gold, silver, and also other commodities have become obvious to an increasingly wide audience this week. The persistent increases in term debt yields are drawing attention to the political impossibility in all G7 nations of reducing budget deficits, while their economies stall. These are the conditions when debt traps lead to far higher interest rates and bond yields, destabilising the entire fiat currency system.
With respect to the dollar, Trump is applying enormous political pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates and is on record demanding a lower dollar. So far, the foreign holders of some $40 trillion do not appear to have taken these threats seriously. As they return from their summer breaks, that is likely to change.
In conclusion, my last chart is of the dollar’s TWI. Which is leading the other major currencies lower:
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 238
5. COMMODITY REPORT GOLD
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.23 PTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 222.58 PTS OR 0.89%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 110.32 PTS OR 0.20% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.02%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1339 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1297/ Oil UP TO 64.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.52 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1339 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1339
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1296
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 222.58 PTS OR 0.89%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 110.32 PTS OR 0.20%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.10 EURO FALLS TO 1.1665 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.608//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.15…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7080 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.586 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.307
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.413
3j Gold at $3408.75 Silver at: 38.85 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND33 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.63
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.15/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.608% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8017 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9353 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.216 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.892 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.623 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.15
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7170 DOWN 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.428 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.943 DOWN 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop Led By Tech Ahead Of PCE Data
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 08:29 AM
US equity futures are lower after closing at a new all time high, dragged by tech stocks as traders cut risk ahead of today’s core PCE data that may test expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%: in premarket trading, Alphabet dropped 1.2% leading losses among the Magnificent Seven giants; Nvidia shares extended their premarket decline to over 1%, after the Wall Street Journal reported Alibaba had created a new AI chip. Dell slumped more than 6% after reporting slower sales of artificial intelligence servers. Europe’s Stoxx 600 also dropped 0.4% while bond markets weakened across the board amid ongoing political turmoil in France. US Treasuries fell, with the yield on 30-year notes rising three basis points to 4.90% while the dollar gained 0.2%, putting it on track to snap a run of three weekly losses. Attention today will be on the July personal income/spending which includes the Fed’s favorite core PCE data; we also get the advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am), August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks: are all lower (Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -1%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta Platforms -0.6%, Tesla -0.4%, Nvidia -0.9%).
- Affirm Holdings (AFRM) climbs 15% after the financial technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
- Alibaba Group ADRs (BABA) rise 3% after the company reported a surge in revenue from China’s AI boom, helping offset a surprise drop in profit tied to a worsening battle with Meituan and JD.com Inc. in internet commerce.
- Ambarella (AMBA) jumps 18% after the US semiconductor device maker beat revenue and EPS estimates and increased its fiscal 2026 revenue growth estimate. Analysts note strong AI momentum.
- Caterpillar (CAT) falls 3% after the industrial giant warned that it faces a larger-than-anticipated tariff headwind of as much as $1.8 billion this year.
- Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) rises 9% after PepsiCo Inc. increased its stake in the energy-drink maker.
- Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) falls 6% after the company booked fewer sales of artificial intelligence servers than in the previous three months and reported profit margins that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
- Elastic (ESTC) rises 16% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) falls 13% after reporting data center revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- NeoGenomics (NEO) rises 4% after saying a US district court ruled in its favor, invalidating all of Natera’s asserted patent claims and clearing the way for broader commercialization of its RaDaR ST assay.
- Petco (WOOF) jumps 22% after the US pet food maker gave 3Q guidance that topped expectations and nudged up its outlook for 2026.
- SentinelOne (S) gains 8% after the software company raised its revenue forecast for the year. Analysts note that results were boosted by strong annual recurring revenues.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) climbs 3% after the cosmetics retailer boosted its comparable sales forecast for the full year.
Friday’s stock market weakness casts a shadow heading into what is historically the toughest month for US equities. The S&P 500 has declined in September 56% of the time, with an average drop of 1.17%, according to Bank of America’s Paul Ciana, citing data back to 1927.
“Some profit-taking is healthy as the AI theme has been playing out for some time,” said François Rimeu, senior strategist at Credit Mutuel Asset Management in Paris. As for economic data, “if the labor market is really heating up, then that could lead to some repricing.”
Friday’s personal consumption expenditures report comes a week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole bolstered bets on the first rate cut of the year next month. Still, doubts linger over what follows that move, with inflation stuck above target. Swaps are pricing two quarter-point cuts this year and another two by June. The report is expected to show core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation, rising 2.9% in July from the year before, the fastest pace in five months. Policymakers will have to balance higher price pressures with data next week that’s expected to show a rise in unemployment.
European stocks extend losses, as the Stoxx 600 drops 0.4% hitting its lowest level in over two weeks with financial stocks leading losses. All 20 sectors are in the red. UK banks dropped after a think tank said Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could raise billions of pounds of revenue through a windfall tax on commercial banks. Defense stocks advanced after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is unlikely to happen. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- European defense stocks are rising on Friday after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is unlikely to happen
- Lotus Bakeries shares rise as much as 6.5% as BofA upgrades its rating on the maker of Biscoff cookies to buy from neutral with a €10,500 target price, and adds the stock to its SMID cap Europe Best Ideas list
- Brunello Cucinelli shares rise to the highest in about a month after the luxury fashion company reported strong operating income for the first half-year. Analysts foresee limited tariff risk
- Schaeffler gains as much as 4.5%, climbing to the highest since June 2024, as Citi upgrades to buy from neutral ahead of the automotive supplier’s forthcoming capital markets day
- UK bank stocks slide after a think tank says Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could raise billions of pounds of revenue by imposing a windfall tax on commercial lenders
- Ayvens drops as much as 3.7% on a downgrade to neutral at Citi, which now sees a fairly balanced risk-reward for the car leasing company following a strong rally in the shares over the past year
- CD Projekt drop as much as 3.4% as mounting development costs and uncertainty on timeline of forthcoming productions cast shadow on 2Q earnings beat
- Pernod Ricard shares drop as much as 4.3% after analysts poured cold water on the optimism stemming from the spirit maker’s earnings beat on Thursday
- Elekta shares drop as much as 6.2%, reversing earlier gains, after the firm reported first-quarter results. Citigroup analysts flagged the lack of order growth acceleration, while Barclays noted revenue will be under pressure in the second quarter
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded little changed, with a rally in Chinese equities offset by losses in Japan amid profit taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged 0.1% lower, with Contemporary Amperex Technology and Suzhou TFC Optical Communication among the biggest gainers. China Taiping Insurance Holdings was among the laggards after its lackluster earnings. Chinese stocks continued to march higher, partly as investor sentiment stayed high ahead of a military parade on Sept. 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Meantime, optimism around solid state batteries also supported gains in the broad market. Shares of CATL, a Chinese battery maker, soared on revenue hopes following an earnings report from a supplier. China’s onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose 0.7% to its highest level since 2022. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced as much as 1.3%. Elsewhere, Japanese stocks fell on profit-taking before the release of personal-consumption-expenditure data in the US. Selling spread across a broad range of sectors, hitting exporters such as makers of electronics and cars, as well as banks and insurers.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The pound is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the greenback. Currency traders are also pointing to the potential for further dollar weakness next month, particularly as Trump escalates his attacks on the Fed into uncharted territory. The greenback is poised to resume its streak of monthly losses after posting a gain in July, its first of the year.
“There are long-term implications from the US administration’s recent actions,” wrote Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities. “This chips away at the USD’s safe haven status.”
In rates, treasuries slip, with longer-dated maturities leading the slide, and 10-year yields rising 2 bps to 4.22%. European government bonds also fall, though Bunds didn’t show much immediate reaction to mixed regional euro-area inflation data.
In commodities, spot gold is down $10. WTI crude futures drop 0.5% to near $64.30 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 2% and below $110,000.
Today’s economic data slate includes July personal income/spending (including PCE price indexes), advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am), August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. The first hearing in Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Trump is set for 10am ET.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
- DAX -0.6%, CAC 40 -0.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.23%
- VIX +0.2 points at 14.61
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1202.63
- euro little changed at $1.1679
- WTI crude -0.8% at $64.1/barrel
Top Overnight News
- FHFA Director Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Fed’s Cook
- The Trump administration plans to expand national-security tariffs on steel, aluminum and a variety of other industries in coming months in hopes of redirecting production in these sectors to the U.S. and thwarting potential legal threats in the trade war. WSJ
- The EU must be prepared to walk away from a trade deal with the US if Trump acts on his threats to target the bloc unless it waters down its digital legislation, Brussels’ competition tsar Teres Ribera said. FT
- The Fed’s Christopher Waller again said he would support a quarter-point rate cut next month and signaled more easing over the next three to six months. Waller said he does not believe a bigger September cut is needed unless the August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well contained, while Waller added that he wanted a rate cut in July and feels more strongly about it now. BBG
- US VP Vance said interest rates are too high and the Fed is not doing its job: Fox News
- Russian oil exports to India are set to rise further in Sept as New Delhi defies the White House. RTRS
- Alibaba posted a 3% drop in operating profit after an escalating price-based battle with Meituan and JD.com hurt margins. Separately, Alibaba developed a new chip compatible with the Nvidia platform, meaning engineers can repurpose programs they wrote for Nvidia chips. BBG
- Tokyo’s inflation rate excluding fresh food slowed to 2.5% in August as expected, but remained above the BOJ’s target. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. BBG
- Vladimir Putin will meet Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi at a summit in Tianjin, China, this weekend to discuss energy ties. BBG
- CPIs from France, Italy, and Spain come in a bit cooler than anticipated in Aug at +0.8% Y/Y, +1.7%, and +2.7% Y/Y, respectively, although German regional CPIs accelerated in Aug vs. Jul. WSJ
- U.S. companies have an unwelcome message for inflation-weary consumers: Prices are going up. Companies from Hormel to Ace Hardware forecast prices rising as the costs of Trump’s tariffs are passed on to consumers. Inflation has eased in recent months, but job growth has also slowed, and there are signs shoppers worry that tariffs could further increase prices. WSJ
- HFs have aggressively net bought EM stocks so far in August, led by Chinese equities, EM EMEA, and to a lesser extent Taiwan, while EM Latin America has seen little net activity. Despite this month’s large net buying, Net allocation in Chinese equities does not look extended and is inline with 5-year average. Goldman Prime
Trade/Tariffs
- Canada does not expect US President Trump to drop all his tariffs on the country, according to officials cited by FT.
- Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said they plan to end negotiations for a complementary trade agreement with Mexico next June and plan to sign a complementary trade agreement with Mexico in August 2026.
- Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa said he will visit the US as soon as necessary arrangements have been made, while he added that he may need to visit the US at least one more time before a presidential executive order is issued.
- Indian Trade Minister says India is to look to new markets, including Australia; India is considering steps to boost domestic demand and support exporters hit by unilateral action by a country; India is taking steps to diversify exports.
- China increases soybean purchases from Argentina and Uruguay due to ongoing US trade tensions, according to Reuters sources; says China has yet to book US soybean imports for Q4
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings. ASX 200 traded rangebound as strength in tech and energy was offset by losses in real estate, healthcare, industrials and financials, while stock headlines in Australia continued to be dominated by a busy earnings slate. Nikkei 225 weakened after a slew of data releases, which were ultimately mixed, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained following another substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC of around CNY 783bln and with Beijing authorities recently vowing support measures, while the spotlight is also on incoming earnings, including from Alibaba and Chinese banks.
Top Asian News
- China state planner spokesperson said they are aware that household consumption capability and confidence need to be improved, and aware that company competition has intensified. The spokesperson added that China will study further increasing support from the central government to reduce funding pressure for local governments for people’s livelihood projects and will investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, and improve governance of disorderly competition. Furthermore, China is to push for reducing R&D costs for AI innovation and will innovate methods to subsidise AI product purchases.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and said China is willing to strengthen strategic mutual trust with Brazil and strengthen mutual support, while he added that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Brazil and work with BRICS countries to resist unilateralism and bullying.
- Industrial and Commercial Bank (1398 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 168.1bln (prev. 171.1bln Y/Y), NII 313.6bln (prev. 314bln Y/Y).
- Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CN) H1 (CNY): net 139.94bln (+2.7% Y/Y), net fee income 51.44bln.
- Bank of Communications (3328 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 46bln, NII 85.3bln.
- Bank of China (601988 CH) H1 (CNY): Net Income 117.59bln, -0.9% Y/Y, NIM 214.81bln.
- TSMC (TSM) reportedly plans major supply chain overhaul, targeting high-margin and China-exposed suppliers, according to DigiTimes Asia.
- Alibaba (BABA) Q1 2025 (USD): Revenue 34.6bln (exp. 34.3bln), EPS 2.06 (exp. 2.13); notes new highs in monthly active customers and daily order volume; to increase cloud adoption for AI. Alibaba (BABA) has developed a new AI chip to help fill China’s void, according to WSJ sources.
European bourses began the session on the back foot despite stateside gains on Thursday. A slew of European data points had little impact on price action, which held a negative bias throughout the day. European sectors began the session mixed, though sectors have since slipped nearly entirely in the red as the risk tone deteriorated. Energy and Industrials prove resilient to the downbeat tone, with German Chancellor’s remarks on Thursday helping defence stocks. Merz said there would be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Banks are the clear underperformers after the think-tank IPPR, recommended the Treasury should hit commercial banks with a new windfall tax on profits to raise up to GBP 8bln.
US equity futures are trading lower but faring better than stocks across the Atlantic. NQ underperforms following outperformance on Thursday, while ES and RTY are a little more resilient into PCE, the latter outperforms.
Top European News
- ECB SCE: Consumers keep inflation expectations stable 1yr: 2.6% (prev. 2.6%). 3yr: 2.5% (prev. 2.4%). 5yr: 2.1% (prev. 2.1%).
- ECB’s de Guindos says “The US-EU trade agreement was the best outcome achievable among a series of difficult negotiations for Europe. In other words, it can be seen as the lesser evil.”, via Econostream X
- German Job Agency Head says the nation has reached a bottoming out of the Labour market.
FX
- DXY is choppy after softening on Thursday alongside a lower yield environment and despite the several encouraging data releases stateside, including the upward revisions to headline US GDP and GDP Sales for Q2, while Core PCE Prices were revised lower and jobless claims fell. DXY currently resides in a narrow 97.85-98.04 parameter at the time of writing, with the 50 DMA seen at 95.58.
- EUR/USD gradually eased back from Thursday’s peak, with the single currency thwarted by resistance near the 1.1700 level. In terms of data this morning, German retail sales fell by -1.5% M/M in July (exp. -0.4%), which saw a tick higher in Bund futures, while German import prices fell by -0.4% M/M in July (exp. -0.3%). French prelim HICP printed 0.8% Y/Y in August (exp. 0.9%, prev. 0.9%), resulting in fleeting EUR downside; Spain’s HICP printed 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.7%), but notable that the Core Spanish CPI saw an uptick to 2.4% from 2.3% – little EUR movement. Back to Germany, state CPIs printed in line with what is expected from the mainland metric at 13:00 BST – an uptick in the Y/Y and a downtick in the M/M. Furthermore, ECB SCE saw consumers keep inflation expectations stable. EUR/USD resides in the 1.1657-1.1682 range at the time of writing after briefly dipping under its 50 DMA 1.1661.
- JPY lacks direction as participants digested several data releases from Japan, which were ultimately mixed, whilst macro newsflow remained light in the European morning. The mixed bag of data releases included Tokyo CPI, which mostly matched estimates, and the Unemployment Rate surprisingly declined, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (146.99) in a current 146.77-147.19 range.
- GBP/USD fell further below the 1.3500 focal point, with Sterling lagging despite light pertinent catalysts for the UK, although there were reports yesterday that PM Starmer plans a cabinet shake-up and is expected to appoint a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget. Some focus also on the UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing), which recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks, they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.
- Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances, and as the PBoC continued to strengthen the yuan reference rate setting.
Fixed Income
- USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in what has been a quiet and rangebound trade overnight. Currently trading in a 112-13+ to 112-18+ range, as traders now turn their attention to the US PCE later today at 13:30 BST/08:30 EDT. Headline PCE is expected to rise by +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate unchanged at 2.6% Y/Y; the core PCE rate is seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%).
- Bunds are ever so slightly on the back foot, as European traders finally have some key data to digest, by way of Retail Sales/inflation metrics. Nonetheless, moves have been relatively contained so far. German Retail Sales sparked some modest upticks in Bunds and then took another leg higher on the softer-than-expected French inflation metrics – high for the day at 129.77. No real move on German Unemployment or Spanish/Italian/German State CPIs.
- Gilts are also trading on the back foot and are marginally underperforming vs peers. Currently trading in a 90.61 to 90.75 range; from a yield perspective, UK 10y is currently trading around 4.72%, still a little off the touted “danger zone” of 4.80% for the Chancellor’s budget. On that, a UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing) recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks; they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.
Commodities
- Crude futures are taking a breather after gaining yesterday, owing to geopolitics on what was otherwise a choppy performance, with the benchmarks rising on Thursday as German Chancellor Merz said there will be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. b currently resides in a 64.03-64.41/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.03-68.39/bbl range.
- Spot gold faded some of the prior day’s advances after ascending above USD 3,400/oz amid a softer dollar and yields.
- Mixed trade across base metals amid a choppy dollar and tentative mood across markets. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,839.00-9,924.00/t.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said France, Germany and the UK have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, while he added Iran is ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program, provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. Furthermore, he said in a letter to the EU foreign policy chief that any E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffective.
- Deputy Russian UN Envoy said E3 move on Iran at UN has no legal bearing and does not think the Security Council should act on the E3 move, while Russia and China have not yet requested a UN Security Council vote on their draft resolution.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- European leaders are said to be mulling a 40-kilometre buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian frontlines as part of a peace deal, according to POLITICO. Officials disagree how deep the actual zone could be and it’s unclear Kyiv would accept the plan as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The US is seemingly not involved in these discussions. French and British forces will likely make up the core of the foreign troop presence.
- Russia says Western proposals for Ukraine security are aimed at containing Russia and drawing Ukraine into NATO’s orbit Russia says this will increase risk of military conflict. Russia says there must be one concept of security guarantees, reflecting Russia’s concerns. Russia says West is trying to turn Ukraine into a ‘strategic provocateur’ on its border.
Geopolitics: Other
- Venezuela’s UN envoy said Venezuela complained in a letter to UN chief Guterres about a US naval build up, while the envoy added that the US naval deployment violates the UN charter and Venezuela does not constitute a threat to anyone. Furthermore, the envoy said the real threat to regional stability is the US military and nuclear weapons presence in the Caribbean. It was later reported that Venezuela’s President Maduro said there’s no way the US can enter Venezuela, and that Venezuela has support from China, Russia, and India.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Jul PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.6%
- 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.8%
- 8:30 am: Jul P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.14%, prior 0.1%
- 9:45 am: Aug MNI Chicago PMI, est. 46, prior 47.1
- 10:00 am: Aug F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 58.6, prior 58.6
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets put in another decent performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) at a new record as positive data reassured investors about the near-term outlook. But even as equities hit new highs, investors remain heavily focused on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and today there’s going to be an emergency hearing about Lisa Cook’s position on the Board of Governors that’s due to start at 10am EST. So this is going to be critically important for markets, as her removal would give President Trump the opportunity to refashion the Board of Governors in a more dovish direction.
In terms of the latest on the case, yesterday we got confirmation that Cook would be suing Trump to block his move to oust her, and the lawsuit also requested the courts to issue an injunction that would allow Cook to remain in her post as governor while litigation is ongoing. So that would be a bit like what happened with the tariffs, where the courts said they could still remain in place as the appeal moves through the courts. Therefore, even if the overall case takes some time to reach a final verdict as the appeal moves through the courts, the injunction decision will have important implications for the Fed in the coming weeks and months.
For now at least, it doesn’t appear that markets are pricing in much chance of Cook being forced out. In fact, if we look at Polymarket, it suggests there’s a 79% chance that Cook will still be voting at the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. And earlier this week, when Trump published his letter removing her, long-end Treasury yields were pretty unreactive in the circumstances. Indeed, the 30yr yield is still within the 4.8%-5% range it’s broadly been in for much of the last 3 months, and yesterday we saw a flattening in the Treasury yield curve that unwound some of the moves from earlier this week as concern grew about the Fed’s independence. So the 2yr yield (+2.0bps) rose to 3.63%, the 10yr yield (-3.0bps) fell to 4.20%, and the 30yr yield (-4.6bps) fell to 4.87%. For more info on the implications, our US economists published a note earlier this week (link here) on what Cook’s removal could mean.
Speaking of the Fed, we also heard from Governor Waller after the US close, who was one of the two Governors who dissented in favour of a rate cut at the last meeting in July. He struck a dovish tone, and the speech was titled “Let’s Get On with It”, in reference to cutting rates. He even floated the idea of a cut bigger than 25bps, saying that even though “I don’t believe that a cut of larger than 25 basis points is needed in September”, that could change if the next jobs report “points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”
Whilst that was going on, investors grew more optimistic on the outlook thanks to a decent batch of US data yesterday. First, we had the second estimate of Q2 GDP, which showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of +3.3% in Q2, above the +3.0% rate on the initial estimate. While this comes after a -0.5% decline in Q1, it still leaves average growth during the first half of the year not too far below trend, which our economists see at just above 2%. Second, there was also a little bit of reassurance on the inflation side, as headline PCE inflation was revised down to +2.0% in Q2 (vs. +2.1% before), whilst core PCE was unchanged at +2.5%. And third, the more recent data was also positive, as the weekly jobless claims for the week ending August 23 fell to 229k (vs. 230k expected), and the continuing claims for the previous week also fell to 1.954m (vs. 1.966m expected). So that all helped to bolster risk appetite and dampen fears about a US downturn. Looking forward, the focus today will be on the PCE inflation numbers for July, which are the Fed’s target measure.
Against that backdrop, US equities put in a decent performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) posting a third consecutive gain to move up to a fresh record. Tech stocks led the way, and the NASDAQ posted a stronger +0.53% advance, although Nvidia (-0.79%) fell back after its earnings release the previous day, which showed an ongoing deceleration in revenue growth. Meanwhile, European equities put in a more subdued performance, with the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) losing ground, with UK equities underperforming as the FTSE 100 fell -0.42%. The mood in Europe wasn’t helped by an unexpected decline in Eurostat’s economic sentiment index for the Euro Area in August, which fell to 95.2 (vs 96.0 expected).
Over in France however, yesterday saw an ongoing stabilisation in the country’s assets. In particular, their sovereign bonds outperformed, and 10yr OAT yields fell -4.1bps, which meant that the 10yr Franco-German spread tightened to 78bps, falling back from its 7-month high on Wednesday. We also saw France’s 10yr bonds slightly outperform Italy’s, where yields fell by a smaller -3.6bps. So that meant the gap between Italy and France’s 10yr yield widened slightly to 6bps, having reached its tightest level since 2003 earlier in the week. Meanwhile, that flattening in the Treasury curve was also echoed in Europe, with 2yr German yields up +1.8bps, whilst the 10yr yield fell -0.7bps.
That uptick in front-end yields was supported by the accounts of the ECB’s July meeting, which added to the sense that they had reached the terminal rate now. For example, it said that “keeping interest rates unchanged was seen as a robust approach to managing shocks and two-sided inflation risks across a wide range of plausible scenarios.” They didn’t rule out further policy action, but the Governing Council seemed comfortable with waiting for more information to justify a cut. And on the theme of European inflation, we’ll get flash CPI prints for August from major Euro area countries today, including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, ahead of the Euro Area-wide number on Tuesday. Our European economists expect headline HICP at 2.1% yoy for the Euro Area (previously 2.0%), and you can see more in their preview here.
Overnight in Asia, Chinese equities have continued to advance, with the CSI 300 (+0.58%) on course for its highest closing level since July 2022, whilst the Shanghai Comp is also up +0.16%. However, it’s been a more negative story elsewhere, the Japan’s Nikkei (-0.24%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.21%) have both lost ground this morning. In Japan, that follows an underwhelming batch of activity data this morning, with retail sales down -1.6% in July (vs. -0.2% expected), whilst industrial production also fell -1.6% (vs. -1.1% expected). Admittedly, there was a deceleration in the Tokyo CPI for August, but that was in line with expectations so wasn’t really a positive surprise, with the headline rate down three-tenths to +2.6%. Looking forward, US equity futures are also slightly negative, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%.
To the day ahead now, and in addition to July PCE inflation, we’ll also get US personal income, personal spending, and the advance goods trade balance. In Europe, we’ll get the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey, Germany’s August CPI, unemployment claims and July retail sales, and CPI readings from France and Italy as well.
2b European opening report
Waller reiterates call for 25bps Sept. cut; Stocks lower, USD & USTs contained into PCE – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 05:55 AM
- Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months.
- European bourses underperform on ongoing political uncertainty, UK banks hit on tax worries; US equity futures are lower into US PCE.
- Choppy trade in the USD as markets await Fed’s Cook’s hearing; GBP underperforms.
- Bonds are broadly lower; Bunds saw modest upticks on German Retails Sales and softer-than-expected French CPI.
- Crude declines alongside sentiment, while gold awaits PCE.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI, US PCE (Jul), University of Michigan Final (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP & Canadian GDP (Q2).
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EUROPEAN TRADE
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Canada does not expect US President Trump to drop all his tariffs on the country, according to officials cited by FT.
- Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said they plan to end negotiations for a complementary trade agreement with Mexico next June and plan to sign a complementary trade agreement with Mexico in August 2026.
- Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa said he will visit the US as soon as necessary arrangements have been made, while he added that he may need to visit the US at least one more time before a presidential executive order is issued.
- Indian Trade Minister says India is to look to new markets, including Australia; India is considering steps to boost domestic demand and support exporters hit by unilateral action by a country; India is taking steps to diversify exports.
- China increases soybean purchases from Argentina and Uruguay due to ongoing US trade tensions, according to Reuters sources; says China has yet to book US soybean imports for Q4
EQUITIES
- European bourses began the session on the back foot despite stateside gains on Thursday. A slew of European data points had little impact on price action, which held a negative bias throughout the day.
- European sectors began the session mixed, though sectors have since slipped nearly entirely in the red as the risk tone deteriorated. Energy and Industrials prove resilient to the downbeat tone, with German Chancellor’s remarks on Thursday helping defence stocks. Merz said there would be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Banks are the clear underperformers after the think-tank IPPR, recommended the Treasury should hit commercial banks with a new windfall tax on profits to raise up to GBP 8bln.
- US equity futures are trading lower but faring better than stocks across the Atlantic. NQ underperforms following outperformance on Thursday, while ES and RTY are a little more resilient into PCE, the latter outperforms.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is choppy after softening on Thursday alongside a lower yield environment and despite the several encouraging data releases stateside, including the upward revisions to headline US GDP and GDP Sales for Q2, while Core PCE Prices were revised lower and jobless claims fell. DXY currently resides in a narrow 97.85-98.04 parameter at the time of writing, with the 50 DMA seen at 95.58.
- EUR/USD gradually eased back from Thursday’s peak, with the single currency thwarted by resistance near the 1.1700 level. In terms of data this morning, German retail sales fell by -1.5% M/M in July (exp. -0.4%), which saw a tick higher in Bund futures, while German import prices fell by -0.4% M/M in July (exp. -0.3%). French prelim HICP printed 0.8% Y/Y in August (exp. 0.9%, prev. 0.9%), resulting in fleeting EUR downside; Spain’s HICP printed 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.7%), but notable that the Core Spanish CPI saw an uptick to 2.4% from 2.3% – little EUR movement. Back to Germany, state CPIs printed in line with what is expected from the mainland metric at 13:00 BST – an uptick in the Y/Y and a downtick in the M/M. Furthermore, ECB SCE saw consumers keep inflation expectations stable. EUR/USD resides in the 1.1657-1.1682 range at the time of writing after briefly dipping under its 50 DMA 1.1661.
- JPY lacks direction as participants digested several data releases from Japan, which were ultimately mixed, whilst macro newsflow remained light in the European morning. The mixed bag of data releases included Tokyo CPI, which mostly matched estimates, and the Unemployment Rate surprisingly declined, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (146.99) in a current 146.77-147.19 range.
- GBP/USD fell further below the 1.3500 focal point, with Sterling lagging despite light pertinent catalysts for the UK, although there were reports yesterday that PM Starmer plans a cabinet shake-up and is expected to appoint a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget. Some focus also on the UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing), which recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks, they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.
- Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances, and as the PBoC continued to strengthen the yuan reference rate setting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1274 (Prev. 7.1063).
- Click for a detailed summary
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in what has been a quiet and rangebound trade overnight. Currently trading in a 112-13+ to 112-18+ range, as traders now turn their attention to the US PCE later today at 13:30 BST/08:30 EDT. Headline PCE is expected to rise by +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate unchanged at 2.6% Y/Y; the core PCE rate is seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%).
- Bunds are ever so slightly on the back foot, as European traders finally have some key data to digest, by way of Retail Sales/inflation metrics. Nonetheless, moves have been relatively contained so far. German Retail Sales sparked some modest upticks in Bunds and then took another leg higher on the softer-than-expected French inflation metrics – high for the day at 129.77. No real move on German Unemployment or Spanish/Italian/German State CPIs.
- Gilts are also trading on the back foot and are marginally underperforming vs peers. Currently trading in a 90.61 to 90.75 range; from a yield perspective, UK 10y is currently trading around 4.72%, still a little off the touted “danger zone” of 4.80% for the Chancellor’s budget. On that, a UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing) recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks; they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures are taking a breather after gaining yesterday, owing to geopolitics on what was otherwise a choppy performance, with the benchmarks rising on Thursday as German Chancellor Merz said there will be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. b currently resides in a 64.03-64.41/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.03-68.39/bbl range.
- Spot gold faded some of the prior day’s advances after ascending above USD 3,400/oz amid a softer dollar and yields.
- Mixed trade across base metals amid a choppy dollar and tentative mood across markets. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,839.00-9,924.00/t.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German State CPIs: Y/Y mostly ticked higher whilst the M/M figure edged a little lower; this is in line with expectations for the Mainland figures.
- German Retail Sales YY Real (Jul) 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 4.9%); Retail Sales MM Real (Jul) -1.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 1.0%)
- German Import Prices YY (Jul) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.2% (Prev. -1.4%); Import Prices MM (Jul) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3%
- German Unemployment Rate SA (Aug) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%); Unemployment Chg SA (Aug) -9.0k vs. Exp. 10.0k (Prev. 2.0k); Unemployment Total NSA (Aug) 3.025M (Prev. 2.979M); Unemployment Total SA (Aug) 2.957M (Prev. 2.97M)
- French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Aug) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
- French GDP QQ Final (Q2) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
- French Consumer Spending MM (Jul) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.4%)
- Spanish HICP Flash MM (Aug) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%); Core CPI YY (Aug) 2.4% (prev. 2.3%); HICP Flash YY (Aug) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Spanish Retail Sales YY (Jul) 4.7% (Prev. 6.2%)
- Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Aug) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%); CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM (Aug) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -1.0%); Consumer Price Prelim YY (Aug) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%); Consumer Price Prelim MM (Aug) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB SCE: Consumers keep inflation expectations stable 1yr: 2.6% (prev. 2.6%). 3yr: 2.5% (prev. 2.4%). 5yr: 2.1% (prev. 2.1%).
- ECB’s de Guindos says “The US-EU trade agreement was the best outcome achievable among a series of difficult negotiations for Europe. In other words, it can be seen as the lesser evil.”, via Econostream X
- German Job Agency Head says the nation has reached a bottoming out of the Labour market.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance, and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting, and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months. Waller said he does not believe a bigger September cut is needed unless the August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well contained, while Waller added that he wanted a rate cut in July and feels more strongly about it now.
- FHFA Director Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Fed’s Cook, according to Bloomberg.
- US VP Vance said interest rates are too high and the Fed is not doing its job, according to a Fox News interview.
- Bank of America weekly flow data shows USD 19.7bln into bonds, USD 16.6bln into stocks, USD 6.8bln into cash, USD 3.1bln into crypto, USD 1.4bln to gold.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said France, Germany and the UK have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, while he added Iran is ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program, provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. Furthermore, he said in a letter to the EU foreign policy chief that any E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffective.
- Deputy Russian UN Envoy said E3 move on Iran at UN has no legal bearing and does not think the Security Council should act on the E3 move, while Russia and China have not yet requested a UN Security Council vote on their draft resolution.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- European leaders are said to be mulling a 40-kilometre buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian frontlines as part of a peace deal, according to POLITICO. Officials disagree how deep the actual zone could be and it’s unclear Kyiv would accept the plan as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The US is seemingly not involved in these discussions. French and British forces will likely make up the core of the foreign troop presence.
- Russia says Western proposals for Ukraine security are aimed at containing Russia and drawing Ukraine into NATO’s orbit Russia says this will increase risk of military conflict. Russia says there must be one concept of security guarantees, reflecting Russia’s concerns. Russia says West is trying to turn Ukraine into a ‘strategic provocateur’ on its border.
OTHER
- Venezuela’s UN envoy said Venezuela complained in a letter to UN chief Guterres about a US naval build up, while the envoy added that the US naval deployment violates the UN charter and Venezuela does not constitute a threat to anyone. Furthermore, the envoy said the real threat to regional stability is the US military and nuclear weapons presence in the Caribbean. It was later reported that Venezuela’s President Maduro said there’s no way the US can enter Venezuela, and that Venezuela has support from China, Russia, and India.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades shy of the USD 109k mark; Ethereum underperforms around USD 4.3k.
- Binance says all futures trading is temporarily unavailable.
- Eric Trump says the Trump family loves and believes in the Bitcoin Community (BTC), BTC to hit USD 1mln valuation.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings.
- ASX 200 traded rangebound as strength in tech and energy was offset by losses in real estate, healthcare, industrials and financials, while stock headlines in Australia continued to be dominated by a busy earnings slate.
- Nikkei 225 weakened after a slew of data releases, which were ultimately mixed, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained following another substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC of around CNY 783bln and with Beijing authorities recently vowing support measures, while the spotlight is also on incoming earnings, including from Alibaba and Chinese banks.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China state planner spokesperson said they are aware that household consumption capability and confidence need to be improved, and aware that company competition has intensified. The spokesperson added that China will study further increasing support from the central government to reduce funding pressure for local governments for people’s livelihood projects and will investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, and improve governance of disorderly competition. Furthermore, China is to push for reducing R&D costs for AI innovation and will innovate methods to subsidise AI product purchases.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and said China is willing to strengthen strategic mutual trust with Brazil and strengthen mutual support, while he added that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Brazil and work with BRICS countries to resist unilateralism and bullying.
- Industrial and Commercial Bank (1398 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 168.1bln (prev. 171.1bln Y/Y), NII 313.6bln (prev. 314bln Y/Y).
- Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CN) H1 (CNY): net 139.94bln (+2.7% Y/Y), net fee income 51.44bln.
- Bank of Communications (3328 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 46bln, NII 85.3bln.
- Bank of China (601988 CH) H1 (CNY): Net Income 117.59bln, -0.9% Y/Y, NIM 214.81bln.
- TSMC (TSM) reportedly plans major supply chain overhaul, targeting high-margin and China-exposed suppliers, according to DigiTimes Asia.
- Alibaba (BABA) Q1 2025 (USD): Revenue 34.6bln (exp. 34.3bln), EPS 2.06 (exp. 2.13); notes new highs in monthly active customers and daily order volume; to increase cloud adoption for AI. Alibaba (BABA) has developed a new AI chip to help fill China’s void, according to WSJ sources.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Industrial Production MM (Jul P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 2.1%)
- Japanese Industrial Production YY (Jul P) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. 1.9%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
- Tokyo CPY YY (Aug) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.9%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.5% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.9%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
2c) Asian opening report
Stocks unchanged after SPX made record highs; PCE ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 02:03 AM
- Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months.
- Fed Governor Cook’s lawyers suggested an unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage dispute over which President Trump wants her fired. It was separately reported that the judge in Fed’s Cook lawsuit set the hearing for this Friday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
- White House said US President Trump was not happy about the overnight strikes in Ukraine and will be making an additional statement on Russia and Ukraine.
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings; European equity futures indicate a softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jul), Import/Export prices (Jul), Unemployment (Aug) & CPI (Aug), French Prelim CPI (Aug), Spanish Flash CPI, (Aug), US PCE (Jul), University of Michigan Final (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP & Canadian GDP (Q2), ECB SCE, Speech from ECB’s de Guindos, Earnings from Alibaba.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks edged higher in which the S&P 500 extended on record highs and the Nasdaq outperformed with tech, energy and communication services leading the gains following NVIDIA’s Q2 report, despite the Co.’s shares declining due to investors feeling underwhelmed by the data centre revenue figure, EBIT and revenue guidance.
- Nonetheless, semiconductors took the overall report as a positive and CEO Huang confirmed reports that they’re having talks with the White House on Blackwell chip sales to China, but noted it “will take a while”. Furthermore, there was a slew of data releases in which GDP growth for Q2 was revised higher, as was GDP sales, while Core PCE Prices printed slightly cooler than expected and jobless claims fell more than anticipated.
- SPX +0.32% at 6,502, NDX +0.58% at 23,703, DJI +0.16% at 45,637, RUT +0.19% at 2,378.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- USTR extended certain exclusions from China section 301 tariffs through November 29th, according to a statement.
- White House Trade Adviser Navarro said the global de minimis exemption will end on Friday, which will save American lives and that ending the de minimis loophole will restrict the flow of narcotics and other prohibited items, as well as defend against counterfeiting. Furthermore, it was stated that the end of the de minimis exemption will create thousands of US jobs and there will be a six-month transition period for postal shipments at flat rates, while there will not be any exceptions to end of de minimis exemption.
- Canada does not expect US President Trump to drop all his tariffs on the country, according to officials cited by FT.
- Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said they plan to end negotiations for a complementary trade agreement with Mexico next June and plan to sign a complementary trade agreement with Mexico in August 2026.
- Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa said he will visit the US as soon as necessary arrangements have been made, while he added that he may need to visit the US at least one more time before a presidential executive order is issued.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting, and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months. Waller said he does not believe a bigger September cut is needed unless the August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well contained, while Waller added that he wanted a rate cut in July and feels more strongly about it now.
- Fed Governor Cook’s lawyers suggested an unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage dispute over which President Trump wants her fired. It was separately reported that the judge in Fed’s Cook lawsuit set the hearing for this Friday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
- FHFA Director Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Fed’s Cook, according to Bloomberg.
- US VP Vance said interest rates are too high and the Fed is not doing its job, according to a Fox News interview.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said capital markets are roaring back and companies are taking calculated risks, spending, and pursuing deals in this economy.
- White House said the details of the Intel (INTC) deal are still being ironed out.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings.
- ASX 200 traded rangebound as strength in tech and energy was offset by losses in real estate, healthcare, industrials and financials, while stock headlines in Australia continued to be dominated by a busy earnings slate.
- Nikkei 225 weakened after a slew of data releases, which were ultimately mixed, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained following another substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC of around CNY 783bln and with Beijing authorities recently vowing support measures, while the spotlight is also on incoming earnings including from Alibaba and Chinese banks.
- US equity futures took a breather after the prior day’s gains and as markets now await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, whilst the US sees a long weekend due to Labor Day on Monday.
- European equity futures indicate a softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY eked modest gains after softening yesterday alongside a lower yield environment and despite the several encouraging data releases stateside including the upward revisions to headline US GDP and GDP Sales for Q2, while Core PCE Prices were revised lower and jobless claims fell. Nonetheless, the data had little impact on the dollar amid tentativeness ahead of Fed Governor Cook’s hearing and the with Fed’s preferred monthly PCE data due later, while there were comments from Fed’s Waller who stuck to a dovish script as he noted the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting, as well as anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months.
- EUR/USD gradually eased back from Thursday’s peak after recent upward momentum in the single currency was thwarted by resistance near the 1.1700 level and as the attention turns to a slew of data incoming from the bloc including German, French and Spanish consumer inflation.
- GBP/USD was stuck near the 1.3500 focal point, where it had oscillated around throughout the prior day amid light pertinent catalysts for the UK, although there were reports that PM Starmer plans a cabinet shake-up and is expected to appoint a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget.
- USD/JPY lacked direction as participants digested several data releases from Japan which were ultimately mixed.
- Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances and as the PBoC continued to strengthen the yuan reference rate setting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1274 (Prev. 7.1063).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures paused after yesterday’s intraday recovery and curve flattening ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
- Bund futures were little changed ahead of a slew of data from Germany including CPI, Retail Sales & Unemployment data.
- 10yr JGB futures pared some of the recent gains with demand contained after a mixed bag of data releases including Tokyo CPI which mostly matched estimates and Unemployment Rate surprisingly declined, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures pulled back after gaining yesterday owing to geopolitics on what was otherwise a choppy performance.
- Spot gold faded some of the prior day’s advances after ascending above USD 3,400/oz amid a softer dollar and yields.
- Copper futures held on to recent spoils and lingered around the prior day’s best levels owing to the positive mood in its largest buyer, China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was pressured overnight and prices retreated back beneath the USD 112k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China state planner spokesperson said they are aware that household consumption capability and confidence need to be improved and aware that companies competition has intensified. The spokesperson added that China will study further increasing support from the central government to reduce funding pressure for local governments for people’s livelihood projects and will investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, and improve governance of disorderly competition. Furthermore, China is to push for reducing R&D costs for AI innovation and will innovate methods to subsidise AI product purchases.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and said China is willing to strengthen strategic mutual trust with Brazil and strengthen mutual support, while he added that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Brazil and work with BRICS countries to resist unilateralism and bullying.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Industrial Production MM (Jul P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 2.1%)
- Japanese Industrial Production YY (Jul P) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. 1.9%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
- Tokyo CPY YY (Aug) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.9%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.5% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.9%)
- Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said France, Germany and the UK have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, while he added Iran is ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program, provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. Furthermore, he said in a letter to the EU foreign policy chief that any E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffective.
- Deputy Russian UN Envoy said E3 move on Iran at UN has no legal bearing and does not think the Security Council should act on the E3 move, while Russia and China have not yet requested a UN Security Council vote on their draft resolution.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- German Chancellor Merz said there will be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.
- White House said US President Trump was not happy about the overnight strikes in Ukraine and will be making an additional statement on Russia and Ukraine.
- European leaders are said to be mulling a 40 kilometer buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian frontlines as part of a peace deal, according to POLITICO. Officials disagree how deep the actual zone could be and it’s unclear Kyiv would accept the plan as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The US is seemingly not involved in these discussions. French and British forces will likely make up the core of the foreign troop presence.
OTHER
- Venezuela’s UN envoy said Venezuela complained in a letter to UN chief Guterres about a US naval buildup, while the envoy added that the US naval deployment violates the UN charter and Venezuela does not constitute a threat to anyone. Furthermore, the envoy said the real threat to regional stability is the US military and nuclear weapons presence in the Caribbean. It was later reported that Venezuela’s President Maduro said there’s no way the US can enter Venezuela, and that Venezuela has support from China, Russia, and India.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
China Rejects Trump’s Proposal For Nuclear Disarmament Talks With US, Russia
Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,
China has poured cold water on President Donald Trump’s suggestion that it join the United States and Russia in talks to downsize their nuclear arsenals, dismissing the idea as unrealistic.
The Chinese regime rejected the proposal on Aug. 27, two days after Trump told reporters that Washington and Moscow were discussing ways to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and that he hoped Beijing would also take part.
Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun signaled at a press conference that China won’t join the disarmament negotiations, adding that the primary responsibility lies with the United States.
Trump raised the subject earlier this week while fielding questions in the Oval Office alongside South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.
Trump said nuclear arms control had been discussed at his Aug. 15 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, and that he wanted China brought into the process.
“One of the things we’re trying to do with Russia and with China is denuclearization, and it’s very important. … Denuclearization is a very big game, but Russia is willing to do it, and I think China is going to be willing to do it too,” he said.
“We cannot let nuclear weapons proliferate. We have to stop nuclear weapons.”
The push for expanded talks comes as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, better known as New START, is set to expire on Feb. 5, 2026. With the collapse of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, New START is the only remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow.
The 10-year treaty, which began in 2011 and was extended by five years in 2021, limits each side to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers. It also caps the total number of missile launchers and bombers at 800 and provides for extensive on-site inspections.
Negotiations for a successor treaty are expected to be difficult, as Russia has indicated it wants NATO’s other nuclear-armed members, namely the United Kingdom and France, included in future talks.
The United States and Russia each hold more than 5,000 warheads, while China is estimated to have at least 600 nuclear warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute—up from around 500 in 2024. France maintains a stockpile of about 290 warheads, while the UK holds around 225.
“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade,” the Institute said in an analysis, noting that even if China reaches the upper projection of 1,500 warheads by 2035, that figure would still represent only about one-third of each of the current U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles.
The first Trump administration had sought to bring China into nuclear arms reduction talks, but that effort was also rejected by the Chinese regime.
In June 2020, Marshall Billingslea, then the U.S. special presidential envoy for arms control, clashed with Chinese officials online when he posted a photo on social media platform Twitter—now X—of empty seats that appeared to be reserved for China at a negotiating table, after Beijing did not send any representative to Vienna to join U.S.-Russia discussions on extending or replacing New START.
The post prompted a furious response from Fu Cong, head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Arms Control Department, who said that the United States had no right to mark the seats with Chinese flags without Beijing’s consent. The Russian ambassador to Austria later posted photos of the event, showing that seats were filled and no Chinese flags were displayed during the talks.
END
CHINA/RUSSIA/USA
Fracturing The Axis: Trump’s Strategic Bet Against The China–Russia Partnership
Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Tanvi Ratna via The Epoch Times,
When President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, many dismissed the summit as a spectacle. Yet beneath the optics, something deeper was unfolding: a strategic gambit aimed at weakening the foundations of the China–Russia relationship. If Nixon’s 1972 trip to Beijing cleaved China from the USSR, this administration is attempting a reverse maneuver—quietly driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
But this time, the tools aren’t detente or ideological diplomacy. They’re economic coercion, targeted pressure, and the calibration of dependency.
The goal is clear: not to reshape alliances in public, but to make their costs visible in private.
Since the summit, a pattern has emerged—one that spans India, China, the EU, and Russia itself.
These theaters are distinct, but the pressure applied in each is coordinated.
This is the “Reverse Kissinger Doctrine,” unfolding not as doctrine in name, but in practice.
India is a useful starting point. After New Delhi ramped up imports of discounted Russian oil to over 1.7 million barrels per day, the United States imposed a 25 percent blanket tariff on Indian exports. Weeks later, the tariff was doubled to 50 percent on categories tied to petroleum-linked supply chains. The effect was immediate: Russian crude shipments to India fell by 67 percent.
Washington’s message was implicit but unmistakable—continued support for Russia, even through commercial channels, would carry consequences. Indian refiners adjusted. The flows didn’t halt entirely, but the margins shrank. India’s largest exporters, including pharmaceutical and automotive suppliers, signaled concern. Moody’s revised India’s growth projections downward, citing export exposure. While Indian officials publicly emphasized resilience, the strategic discomfort was evident.
China, in contrast, absorbed the displaced volumes. Its purchases of Russian Urals crude increased sharply, pushing Moscow ahead of Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier. Trade between the two countries is increasingly yuan- and ruble-denominated. Swap lines have expanded. Military-industrial cooperation, though officially denied, continues under dual-use umbrellas.
Still, China’s response is not without cost. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are now at 30 percent, and export controls on semiconductors and precision inputs are tightening. Beijing has retaliated through rare earth export restrictions, but that tactic—effective in the short term—risks longer-term isolation. Moreover, its perceived alignment with Moscow on Ukraine has complicated relationships with Europe.
European policymakers have taken notice. While their public posture remains calibrated, Brussels has steadily escalated sanctions. At least 45 Russian financial institutions have been cut off from SWIFT. A price cap on Russian crude has significantly reduced Moscow’s daily revenues. Shadow tanker fleets, once a workaround, are now under sanctions pressure themselves.
Meanwhile, Europe’s security posture is shifting. Troop deployments across NATO’s eastern flank—while not full-scale—mark a departure from the defense posture of previous decades.
These shifts don’t reflect a desire to expand conflict. They reflect an understanding that deterrence now has to be distributed.
For Moscow, the costs are compounding. Its current account surplus has narrowed dramatically. Maintaining its shadow fleet is proving expensive. Insurance and repairs are harder to procure. While the Kremlin maintains a tough line in public—insisting on recognition of its territorial claims—there are signs of negotiation behind the scenes.
The administration’s objective is not necessarily a win in Ukraine as traditionally defined. It’s strategic containment—an equilibrium that limits Russian leverage without requiring NATO expansion or direct confrontation.
The logic is subtle but consistent. Create discomfort around Russia’s partnerships. Use trade and finance to constrain flexibility. Signal to third parties that proximity to Moscow comes with rising friction. It’s not about public declarations. It’s about recalibrating the cost-benefit equation.
This approach does not mirror the Cold War. There is no binary bloc logic. But the tactics resonate with history. Nixon once bet that ideological curiosity could reshape global alignments. This administration is betting that dependency—and its disruption—can achieve the same.
In doing so, it is quietly reshaping the landscape. Not through new alliances, but through the strategic burdening of old ones.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
END
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
Germany’s Ruling CDU Party Targets Afghan & Syrian Benefit-Recipients In Push To Cut “Unsustainable” Welfare Budget
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Germany’s ruling CDU/CSU bloc is demanding stricter limits on welfare, with party leaders pointing to high rates of reliance on the citizen’s allowance among Afghans and Syrians.
Deputy parliamentary group leader Mathias Middelberg said job centers must do more to place these groups into work, stressing there is “still considerable potential for catching up in terms of taking up employment.”
“Just 100,000 more people in work instead of relying on the citizen’s allowance could, depending on wage levels, relieve the federal budget in the low single-digit billion range every year,” the lawmaker told Bild.
According to government figures cited by Middelberg, 52.8 percent of Syrians and 46.7 percent of Afghans in Germany rely on the citizen’s allowance, while only 36.7 percent of Syrians and 37 percent of Afghans hold jobs subject to social security contributions.
“We cannot accept that hundreds of thousands of young asylum seekers here in Germany are unemployed for decades,” he said.
The call comes amid soaring welfare costs, with annual spending on the citizen’s allowance at around €52 billion. Statistics from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) last year showed that of the more than 4 million people who can work but receive social benefits, more than 2.5 million have a migration background, constituting 63.5 percent.
At the start of 2024, of the 2.6 million non-Germans registered for benefits, 706,000 were from Ukraine, 512,000 from Syria, and 201,000 from Afghanistan.
CSU leader Markus Söder and CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said that those unwilling to work should no longer receive support.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforced the message over the weekend, warning that Germany’s welfare model is no longer sustainable. “The welfare state as we have it today is no longer financially viable with what we are achieving economically,” he said.
Rising unemployment, bankruptcies, and inflation risks are also evidence of the mounting strain.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel slammed the Grand Coalition government for continuing to oversee Germany’s economic decline on Tuesday, pointing to figures cited by Welt, which revealed 114,000 industrial jobs had been lost within the last year.
“The politically motivated deindustrialization continues unabated, even more than six months after the new elections. No economic turnaround without the AfD!” she wrote.
END
Germany is now no longer safe: Police Union
“Germany Is No Longer Safe”: Dark Predictions For Major European Country By 2050…
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 06:30 AM
The deputy head of the German police union, Manuel Ostermann, published this text on X, which Remix News is publishing in English: (emphasis ours)
Imagine Germany in 2050.
Arab clans dominate the big cities. Gangs fight each other in the fight for sovereignty in organized crime. People who don’t belong to the “right side” are murdered on the street. Even the police hardly dare to go to certain areas known as no-go areas anymore. Drug deaths hit an all-time high. In some districts, only Sharia law is recognized as valid law. Women are only allowed to go out on the streets unless fully veiled and accompanied by a male relative. The streetscape in these cities is dominated by Arab shops and traders.
You only hear Arabic. Germans have moved to other parts of the city and no longer dare to go back. In schools, lessons can only take place bilingually. The law of the strongest prevails in the playground. Girls and women only dare to be around people with pepper spray in their pockets. Gang rapists and so-called grooming gangs wreak havoc with impunity. Muslim girls, who are still pre-adolescent, like to be married to older men. Genital mutilation is practiced quite naturally in certain circles. German folk festivals only take place sporadically.
Many cities now have Islamist mayors. There is an Islamic right-wing radical party in the Bundestag strongest force. Hundreds of male migrants still cross borders every day. Christmas lights have been abolished. Islamic festivals such as Sugar Festival have been declared a national holiday. Crosses have invariably disappeared from public life. Most churches are closed. The imams can be heard calling to prayer several times a day. The social system has almost collapsed. The pensions can no longer be paid out.
I hear you shouting again: Now he’s exaggerating again! Such dystopian nonsense! And again I would answer you: No, I’m not exaggerating at all.
Just take a look at the U.K.
There, you are already a few steps further and closer to the description above. Why should things be any different here in Germany?
Not only will our society continue to Islamize –and at a rapid pace – it will undoubtedly become radicalized in every respect. Acts of violence will continue to increase.
If … yes, if we don’t get a 180-degree turnaround in domestic politics right away.
We don’t have a second chance, just this one way to stop the development that has been mapped out.
Not tomorrow. Not at some point.
Now.
Germany is no longer safe. This is not a wanton toad. This is not a “populist” battle cry. This is not pessimism. This is reality.
END
GERMANY/USA
Germany’s Rheinmetall May Produce Lockheed’s ATACMS, Hellfire Missiles At Europe’s Largest Artillery Plant
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 04:15 AM
The Deep State’s favorite weapons giant defense contractor, Lockheed Martin – which may or may not be next on Trump’s partial nationalization schedule – wants to have German peer Rheinmetall manufacture ATACMS and Hellfire missiles in Germany, business magazine WirtschaftsWoche cited a Lockheed executive as saying.
“We are already actively discussing additional manufacturing – including for ATACMS and Hellfire missiles,” Lockheed’s Europe head Dennis Goege told WirtschaftsWoche, adding that it would take place at Rheinmetall’s expanding Unterluess site in northern Germany.
The two companies said in April they would expand their cooperation beyond a memorandum of understanding signed in 2024, with the U.S. group providing missile and rocket technology, and Rheinmetall manufacturing and selling missiles in Europe.
Goege also told the magazine that the final list of missiles had yet to be determined.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited the Unterluess site on Wednesday, together with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, to attend the opening of an artillery production line at what will be Europe’s biggest ammunition factory as Germany sets out to massively expand its military.
At the plant’s official inauguration in Unterluess on Wednesday, Rheinmetall’s chief executive officer, Armin Papperger, said the company could build similar facilities in other NATO countries, “and thus build a pan-European defense ecosystem.”
“When it comes down to it, Germany can be fast,” Papperger said. “Our country takes on responsibility as part of a Europe that has to take charge of its own security more than ever.”
Rutte said plants like the new one at Unterluess are “absolutely crucial” for the NATO alliance’s own security, for maintaining support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion and to “deter any aggression in the future.”
“Deterrence comes from the capability to indeed fight potential enemies,” Rutte added. “And Rheinmetall is extremely important here.”
According to Bloomberg, Rheinmetall broke ground for the plant, which was supposed to open in late spring or early summer this year, in early 2024 in the presence of former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The factory began trial operations in the second quarter of this year and will have a capacity of up to 350,000 rounds per year once it is fully operational from 2027 onwards.
It consists of two buildings, one for production of 155mm artillery shells and one for loading, assembly and packaging.
The investment volume totals around €500 million ($581 million) and more than 500 jobs will be created at the site. Rheinmetall also plans to produce rocket artillery there starting from next year.
Papperger also formally signed a contract Wednesday together with the Romanian economy minister for a new powder factory there, which he said could be completed in around 18 months.
Rheinmetall recently completed another major project in Germany, a plant in Weeze near the Dutch border, where the German defense contractor manufactures center fuselage sections for Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-35 fighter jet.
Its weapons and ammunition segment has been a major growth driver behind the company’s unprecedented rise in the past three years, recording sales of €724 million in the first half of 2025. The company’s shares are up more than 160% this year.
end
GERMANY/RUSSIA/USA
Kremlin Rejects ‘Fabricated’ Report of Russian Drones Spying On US Weapons Routes In Germany
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 12:00 PM
The Kremlin has rejected claims that Russia or its agents have been using drones to track American and allied weapons shipments passing through eastern Germany, after a Thursday New York Times article alleged it.
US officials suspect that Russian intelligence or its proxies have flown surveillance drones over supply routes in the German state of Thuringia, the NY Times said, in an effort to gather vital intelligence on arms manufacturers and logistical pathways for weapon deliveries to Ukraine via Poland – especially when it comes to US arms flows.
The idea is that Russia could use this information to then possibly sabotage supply routes or manufacturers, as part of an ongoing ‘dirty war’ against NATO’s support infrastructure.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov used the word ‘fabricated’ to dismiss the report, saying, “It’s hard to believe – if it were true, the Germans would have certainly reacted. This sounds like yet another fabricated news story.”
According to the Thursday NY Times report:
US spy agencies have been providing information to European governments about potential sabotage actions, according to people briefed on the discussions. That has included a warning to German intelligence officials about a plot to send explosives or incendiary devices on cargo planes transiting Germany.
The warning resulted in the arrest of the three Ukrainian nationals in Germany and Switzerland. The federal prosecutor’s office in Berlin said in a statement at the time that the plan appeared to be part of a plot to damage logistical infrastructure for commercial freight.
German intelligence has suspected that some of the drones may have originated from Iran in terms of design and manufacturing, and could have been launched from ships in the nearby Baltic Sea. But despite apparent eyewitness reports of the drone sightings, there’s little or nothing confirmable in theirs of their origin or purpose.
One US military analyst cited in the Times report explained, “If at some point the Russians wanted to get more aggressive and forward leaning with that kind of intelligence collection, they know what companies are exporting and what routes are being used.”
“It would be useful if they wanted to conduct sabotage or subversive operations,” he added. The last years have seen a spate of major industrial fires in various EU states, as well as Britain, apparently targeting defense manufacturing facilities.
For example, just this summer ‘Russian saboteurs’ were alleged to be behind a suspected arson attack at a Bundeswehr facility in Erfurt, Germany – which destroyed half a dozen large military trucks. NATO and the Ukrainians have been suspected of doing their own dirty war sabotage operations inside Russia as well.
* * *
Alleged sabotage video of the June incident…
EU/CHINA
EU Luxury: From China Proxy to Catch-Up Play
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 10:34
Signs of life in luxury
1. China Correlation Gap: European luxury has not participated in the recent China equity rally, despite historically trading as a “China proxy,” suggesting room for catch-up.
2. Underweight Positioning: The sector was heavily sold down over the past year on China/earnings worries and used to fund other rotations; current positioning sits at the 36th percentile, leaving scope for re-allocation.
3. US Consumer Resilience: Swatch and credit card data point to continued US strength despite price hikes and macro volatility, helped by wealth effects from equities and crypto. (Main bullets via JPM’s sales desk)
Source: LSEG Workspace
Catalysts
Near term catalysts for EU luxury:
1. Back to Office: European luxury companies return from August holidays in early September, often updating investors and moving stocks.
2. Earnings Watch: Zegna reports next Friday with a likely trading update.
3. Pre-Close Calls: Expected mainly in the week of Sept 22.
JPM also notes: “…weakness in banks (long momo), helps the luxury strength (short momo). Flow wise, turned net to buy in the sector over past week”. Chart shows EU luxury vs EU banks.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Lagging other classical China plays
EU luxury vs basic resources gap is huge.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Depressed positioning
Positioning in EU luxury is still very low.
Source: GS
The macro pulse of luxury
China’s July data was mixed but showed encouraging signs for luxury, with key categories improving sequentially. A standout was European handbag imports to China, up 7% — the first positive month since January 2024 and a strong proxy for sector growth. Despite retail sales missing expectations, Louise Singlehurst (GS analyst) maintains their view that China has likely bottomed and can stabilise in 2H, albeit from a low base.
LVMH technicals
LVMH has spiked higher recently, but reversed on the short term resistance at 520 (range highs). A close above the range highs, and this could squeeze substantially more. Note the 21/50 day cross. Last time we saw similar crosses, the stock gained 15-20%. Chart 2 shows the LVMH vs Shanghai gap.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Source: LSEG Workspace
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IDF recovers body of murdered hostage Ilan Weiss in Gaza
The IDF confirmed that it also found the remains of an additional hostage whose name has not yet been released.
Ilan Weiss.(photo credit: HOSTAGE FAMILIES HEADQUARTERS)ByAARON REICH, SHIR PERETSAUGUST 29, 2025 13:05Updated: AUGUST 29, 2025 13:25
The IDF and Shin Bet have recovered and identified the body of hostage Ilan Weiss and the remains of an additional hostage whose name has not yet been released in the Gaza Strip, the military confirmed on Friday.
“Together with all the citizens of Israel, my wife and I send our heartfelt condolences to the dear families and share in their deep sorrow,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated.
“The campaign to bring back the hostages continues without pause. We will not rest and we will not be silent until we return all our hostages home, both the living and the fallen.”
The IDF stated that the identification process of the additional hostage is still ongoing, and the family has been notified.
“Ilan showed courage and noble spirit when he fought the terrorists on that dark day. In his death, he gave life. And ever since, his family has shown extraordinary strength in their struggle for his return,” President Isaac Herzog wrote.
“I wish to express profound appreciation to our heroic fighters who risk their lives day and night to return all the hostages – the living and the fallen alike,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said, adding that returning the hostages is the “central goal of the approaching maneuver.”
Ilan Weiss
Weiss, 56, was a resident of Kibbutz Be’eri in the Gaza border area and served on the kibbutz’s emergency standby squad. In January 2024, the kibbutz confirmed that he was killed during the October 7 massacre, with his body taken by Hamas back to the Gaza Strip.
Weiss’s wife, Shiri, and daughter, Noga, were also taken hostage by Hamas on October 7, but were released in late November 2023 during a temporary ceasefire.
His other two daughters, Meytal and Maayan, were able to hide from Hamas during the massacre and were saved by Israeli soldiers.
The family dog, Ketem, was also killed by Hamas terrorists when Shiri and Noga were abducted.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IDF invasion of Gaza City could be on the way, military ends protection for aid groups in area
The special localized ceasefires will still apply to the al-Muwasi area and certain zones in central and southern Gaza.
IDF operates in Gaza, August 29, 2025.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 29, 2025 11:40Updated: AUGUST 29, 2025 12:05
The IDF invasion of Gaza City could finally be on the way after weeks of back and forth on the issue.
On Friday morning, at 11:30 a.m., the IDF said that as of 10:00 a.m. earlier in the morning, Gaza City had become defined as a full-fledged war zone.
According to the IDF, the special protection it has been offering to humanitarian NGOs for the last month, since Israel greatly increased the flow of humanitarian aid to reduce the risk of Gazan food insecurity, no longer applies to Gaza City.
The special localized ceasefires will still apply to the al-Muwasi area and certain zones in central and southern Gaza, but the lifting of that protection for Gaza City could be the sign that the invasion is more imminent.
For several days, the IDF has sent repeated messages to Gaza City residents to try to get them to evacuate, with only limited success to date.
This latest move could be a significant escalation on the way to the actual invasion.
Intensified campaign across Gaza
The IDF has intensified its ground campaign across the Gaza Strip, striking dozens of terror-related targets in recent days, the military said Thursday. Units under Southern Command have broadened their efforts, targeting terrorist infrastructure and operatives across the southern and northern sectors.
In southern Gaza, IDF troops eliminated several Hamas gunmen and dismantled key operational sites. The 188th Armored Brigade’s combat team advanced in Khan Yunis, working to assert control over the Magen Oz axis, a strategic corridor linking the eastern and western parts of the city. During the operation, several buildings used by Hamas as command posts were destroyed.
Last week, the military confirmed it had struck and killed Mahmoud al-Aswad, who served as Hamas’s General Security Apparatus leader in the Gaza Strip.
Aswad operated as the terrorist organization’s general security leader for Western Gaza, with the military describing him as a “significant source of knowledge” for Hamas.
Meanwhile, in the southern Gaza Strip, Israeli soldiers killed a number of Hamas terrorists who advanced towards the troops in Khan Yunis. The terrorists were killed with the assistance of the IAF.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL VS HOUTHIS
Israel Attempts ‘Decapitation’ Strikes Of Top Houthi Leadership In Yemen
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 02:45 AM
On Thursday the Israeli Air Force carried out major strikes on Yemen, but unlike prior attacks, this one was reportedly aimed at eliminating top military and political leaders of the Iran-backed Houthi movement.
It was an operation widely described by Israeli media as the IDF military’s most significant strike against the Houthis to date. According to Israeli media citing anonymous security sources, intelligence indicated that ten senior Houthi officials, including the group’s defense minister, had gathered near Sanaa to attend a speech by Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi – although none of this can be definitively confirmed.
The Israeli Air Force reportedly conducted an airstrike aimed at that assembly, resulting in huge explosions and fireballs erupting near the presidential compound and a southern Sanaa building.
What remains unknown, and is unlikely to go unconfirmed for days or more, is which high-ranking Houthi officials were actually present, or whether the group’s chief of staff, Muhammad al-Ghamari, was among them.
Regional reports suggest Israeli intelligence was monitoring the situation in real time, providing precise data that enabled the strike, even though that particular area of the city is known for having strong air defenses.
According to more details in regional sources:
Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen network, affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that more than 10 strikes hit the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and attacks were reported in the provinces of Amran and Hajjah. Sources told the Saudi Al-Hadath TV channel that the attacks “targeted Houthi positions in the Hajjah area. They targeted houses where Houthi leaders were hiding.”
Israeli Defense Minister Katz soon after the attack was complete, stated, “As we warned the Houthis in Yemen: After the plague of darkness comes the plague of the firstborn” – in reference to the Biblical Ten Plagues of Egypt.
His words suggested that some of among the top Houthi leadership were taken out.
And Israel’s military in follow-up said, “The IDF is acting forcefully against the Houthi terror regime, alongside intensifying operations against Hamas in Gaza, and will continue to act to eliminate all threats to Israeli civilians.”
Remarkably powerful daytime attack, after the Houthis over several months have targeted Tel Aviv’s international airport with ballistic missiles…
The Houthis are an Iran-allied movement which has shown resiliency, given that for over a half-decade it was bombed by the Saudi-US-UAE coalition, largely to no effect, and now it is in a war with Israel, and has managed to effectively shut down international transit shipping through the Red Sea.
end
ISRAEL VS TURKEY
they can scream all they want but they are not going to get the gas discovered in the Leviathan fields.
They are demanding this gas from Cyprus but will not get it.
(JerusalemPost)
Turkey completely severes economic ties, closes airspace to Israel
Detours caused by the closed airspace could increase the travel time of flights from Israel to countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan by almost two hours.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends an interview with Reuters, in Brussels, Belgium April 4, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN)ByAMICHAI STEINAUGUST 29, 2025 15:25
Turkey has decided to completely sever all commercial and economic ties with Israel and is closing its airspace to Israeli planes, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Friday.
While the economic consequences of this move are yet to be seen, detours caused by the closed airspace could increase the travel time of flights from Israel to countries such as Georgia and Azerbaijan by almost two hours.
An Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post: “Turkey has already announced severing economic relations with Israel in the past (and the relations continued).”
The move comes following reports that Turkish port authorities have begun informally requiring shipping agents to provide letters declaring that vessels are not linked to Israel and not carrying military or hazardous cargo bound for the country.
The alleged move, as per shipping sources, is another step Turkey has taken against Israel after it last year severed trade with the country, worth $7 billion annually, over its war in Gaza with Hamas.
The sources said the harbor master’s office had verbally instructed port agents to provide written assurances, adding that there was no official circular on the issue.
This is a developing story.
REUTERS contributed to this report.
END
TURKEY ISRAEL
Turkey furious with this dismantling!
Israel dismantles Turkish spying devices in Syria – report
An Israeli official confirmed that, during the recent operations in Syria, the military dismantled devices used by Turkey to spy on Israel.
AN IDF APC enters Syria at the ceasefire line (illustrative).(photo credit: Avi Ohayon/Reuters)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 28, 2025 16:24Updated: AUGUST 28, 2025 17:01
Israeli forces dismantle spying devices embedded in Syria during its recent raids in a countryside base near Damascus, an Israeli official told Arab news site Al Hadath on Thursday.
The report also mentioned recovering secret and dangerous equipment, with the official sending a message to the Syrian government: “We warned the Sharaa administration against playing with fire and listening to Turkish orders.”
The equipment had been in Syria for the last ten years.
“Turkey is trying to get closer to Israel than it should,” he said, and concluded by noting that Israel has informed the new Syrian administration “not to test its patience and the limits of its operations.”
Israel enters its third day of operations in Syria
Members of the New Syrian Army discovered surveillance and eavesdropping devices near Jabal al-Manea, south of Damascus, on Tuesday, according to the report.
While attempting to deal with them, the site was subjected to an Israeli airstrike, resulting in the deaths and injuries of several soldiers and the destruction of vehicles.
The Kingdom of Jordan has been especially vocal about the attacks.
On August 26, it condemned “in the strongest terms, the repeated Israeli violations and its infiltration into Syrian territory, considering it a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous escalation targeting Syria’s stability, sovereignty and security.”
Seth J. Frantzman contributed to this report.
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL
with al Julani’s co operation Israel landed near Damascus are carried out a major operation lasting 2 hours. plus more airstrikes at targets
(zerohedge)
Israeli Army Carries Out Landing Op Near Damascus, More Airstrikes
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 05:00 AM
The Israeli military carried out a series of airstrikes as well as a landing operation in Syria Wednesday night, coinciding with ongoing negotiations for a security deal between Tel Aviv and Damascus.
“The attack in Damascus last night proves the proper balance of power between us and Syria,” the Israel News telegram channel reported on Thursday. “Every time Israel sees that there is a weapon or some kind of capability in Syria that it can threaten – we act immediately. It should be noted that when there are agreements, Israel will not be able to do this. It is a weak step in the Middle East to seek an agreement, because an agreement is protection, until it strengthens. Israel is the strong side here, and therefore freedom of action should be preserved, and it is advisable that Israel maintain freedom of action,” it added.
“The attack in Damascus is just an example of the need to carry out such attacks from time to time.” The strikes reportedly targeted an air defense base belonging to Syria’s former military.
“About 10 kilometers from the opening of the Damascus International Fair attended by President Sharaa, three Israeli warplanes took turns bombing Rif-Dimashq (Damascus countryside),” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported.
Following the attack on Wednesday, Israeli ground forces were flown into the area via helicopter to carry out a raid on the site. The details of the landing operation are “not yet known,” a government source told Syrian state media outlet SANA.
Syrian army sources told AFP the landing operation lasted two hours, and that Israeli forces left the area afterwards. Six Syrian soldiers were killed in an attack on the same area on Tuesday.
The government source told SANA that Syrian troops discovered spy devices during a patrol south of Damascus on August 26. The strikes targeted the soldiers when they attempted to remove the devices.
The Israeli attack on Tuesday prevented access to the area until the following day, the source said, adding that Syrian troops later destroyed the spy devices with “appropriate weapons.”
Israel’s Channel 14 correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen reported that “Israeli strikes were carried out in Syria following the discovery of intelligence devices planted in the country.”
Direct negotiations between Syrian and Israeli officials have been taking place in recent months, focusing on the establishment of a security arrangement. Israel expanded its occupation of Mount Hermon following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, pushing past the demilitarized zone and declaring the 1974 Disengagement Agreement null.
Israeli forces have since established a widespread occupation across southern Syria and have continued to expand it, practically encircling the Syrian capital. Hundreds of Israeli airstrikes have also targeted former Syrian army sites.
Last month, Israel intervened in violent clashes between Syrian government-linked forces and Druze armed factions in the southern Suwayda governorate, carrying out heavy strikes on Damascus’s troops and sites in the country’s capital.
Tel Aviv framed the attacks as an effort to “protect” the Druze minority in Syria. Negotiations between Israel and Syria, which had been ongoing before the July clashes, resumed quickly following the Israeli strikes on the country.
Israel’s Channel 12 revealed on August 25 that “Israel and Syria are expected to sign a security agreement aimed at stabilizing the situation in Syria and preventing threats to Israel.”
The deal, set to be signed in September, is said to include a clause on preventing the new Syrian army from building and strengthening its force, as well as a demilitarization of the Golan Heights. It also reportedly includes Syrian–Israeli cooperation against Iran and Hezbollah.
Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former Al-Qaeda chief, will attend the UN General Assembly meeting in New York next month.
IRAN/GERMANY
Germany tells nationals to leave Iran, fearing retaliation over sanctions
Britain, France, and Germany on Thursday launched a 30-day process to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran over its disputed nuclear program.
An illustrative image of signs pointing to Iran and Germany.(photo credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)ByREUTERS, YONAH JEREMY BOBAUGUST 29, 2025 10:23
Germany has told its nationals to leave Iran and refrain from traveling there to avoid getting caught in retaliatory acts by Tehran over Germany’s role in triggering UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
Britain, France, and Germany on Thursday launched a 30-day process to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran over its disputed nuclear program, a step likely to stoke tensions two months after Israel and the United States bombed Iran.
“As Iranian government representatives have repeatedly threatened with consequences in this case, it cannot be ruled out that German interests and nationals will be affected by countermeasures in Iran,” the foreign ministry said in a statement posted on its website on Thursday.
“Currently, the German Embassy in Tehran can only provide limited consular assistance on site,” it warned.
Snapback on Iran
The “snapback” is a mechanism built into the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal that allows any of the parties to the deal to automatically bring back full global sanctions on Tehran if they view it as materially violating the deal, with Russia and China lacking their standard UN-style veto power.
The E3’s decision follows two months of negotiations since the June war between Israel and Iran, in which the Israeli and American air forces set back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by around two years.
There is still time for Khamenei to make concessions, as if he reaches a new comprehensive nuclear deal or an interim agreement to postpone the showdown within 30 days, the snapback will not actually take effect.
Iran agreeing to extend the expiration of the snapback beyond October 18 remains the most likely outcome in the next 30 days, which would allow the E3 to give Tehran more time to negotiate.
END
RUSSIA//EU// NORWAY/USA
EU substitutes USA and Norway gas for Russian// gas
EU Exchanges Russian Gas For American & Norwegian Supplies
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 06:55 AM
The European Union has signed a deal to import $750 billion worth of liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels from the United States by 2028.
The agreement, announced on July 27 by U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is part of a wider trade package under which the EU will accept a unilateral U.S. tariff of 15 percent on most of its exports to the U.S., while also committing to $600 billion in investments to the country.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, the EU has greatly reduced its reliance on Russian energy.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia accounted for 45 percent of EU gas imports, at 150.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021. By 2024, this had fallen to 51.7 bcm, representing 19 percent of imports.
That decline has changed course in the past year though, with imports from Russia having seen an uptick in 2023, despite the EU’s earlier implementation of measures to diversify away from Russian gas by 2027 under the REPowerEU plan. The increase was largely due to increased imports into Italy, Czechia and France, according to Ember.
To cover the 98.5 bcm shortfall left by reduced Russian supply, the EU has leaned more heavily on other exporters. Last year, Norway delivered 91.1 bcm of gas to the EU, up 15 percent from 2021, which represented 33.4 percent of the EU’s total imports. U.S. gas shipments increased by 139 percent over the same period, reaching 45.1 bcm, or 16.5 percent of the total. Other important partners last year included Algeria (39.2 bcm), Qatar (11.8 bcm), Azerbaijan (11.7 bcm) and the United Kingdom (11.7 bcm). Despite these shifts, overall EU gas imports in 2024 were still 61.4 bcm lower than in 2021.
According to Reuters, the EU will further ramp up purchases of U.S. oil, natural gas and coal, with trade rising from about $75 billion in 2024 to $250 billion annually over the next three years. Eurostat data from the first quarter of 2025 shows that the U.S. is already the EU’s top supplier of oil, accounting for 15 percent of imports by value and the leading source of LNG with a 50.7 percent share . The U.S. is also the EU’s second-largest coal supplier, providing 31.3 percent of trade by value, behind Australia at 33.4 percent.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Here’s What The US’ Security Guarantees For Ukraine Might Look Like
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Trump appears to be pushing his luck with Putin, who’s open to compromises, not concessions, let alone significant security ones. If this approach doesn’t change, then a serious escalation is expected.
Western security guarantees for Ukraine are one of the main issues delaying a political resolution to the conflict. Russia launched its special operation (SMO) primarily in response to NATO-emanating threats from Ukraine. It would therefore be a significant concession for Russia to agree to some level of those threats, perhaps even in some more intense forms than pre-SMO, remaining after the conflict ends. As it turns out, however, that’s precisely what Trump envisages per his own statements and recent reports:
* 18 August: “Ukraine offers Trump $100bn weapons deal to win security guarantees”
* 23 August: “Pentagon Has Quietly Blocked Ukraine’s Long-Range Missile Strikes on Russia”
* 25 August: “Trump says US has stopped bankrolling Ukraine”
* 25 August: “US won’t play key role in Ukraine’s security guarantees – Trump”
* 26 August: “US offers air and intelligence support to postwar force in Ukraine”
The corresponding takeaways are that:
1) Ukraine wants Trump to continue his new policy of indirectly arming it via new arms sales to NATO;
2) although Ukraine is no longer allowed by the US to strike universally recognized Russian territory, 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munition air-launched missiles were just approved per the aforesaid policy;
3) such deals represent his new approach to the conflict;
4) he’s reluctant to get any more deeply involved; but
5) the US could still aid EU forces in Ukraine.
From Russia’s official perspective, which might speculatively not reflect its actual one behind closed doors:
1) the continued flow of any NATO arms into Ukraine is unacceptable;
2) it’s even worse if they’re modern offensive ones (the Javelins and Stingers from pre-SMO were already bad enough);
3) Trump’s pride in his new policy makes it unlikely that he’ll change course;
4) it’s praiseworthy though that he doesn’t want to get more deeply involved; but
5) any Western forces in Ukraine remain unacceptable.
Accordingly, the apples of discord are the continued flow of modern offensive arms to Ukraine and the US’ flirtation with backing EU troops there, which the earlier cited report claimed could deploy some distance from the front behind NATO-trained Ukrainian troops and neutral countries’ peacekeepers. US backing could reportedly take the form of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; command and control; more air defenses; and aircraft, logistics, and radar supporting an EU-enforced no-fly zone.
The abovementioned scenario would intensify NATO-emanating threats from Ukraine. It would be a more formidable adversary than in the pre-SMO era and this time have the direct backing of some NATO countries’ troops on its territory even if the US doesn’t officially provide Article 5 protection to them. The risk of a hot NATO-Russian war breaking out either by the bloc’s design or Ukraine manipulating them into it through future provocations would thus be unprecedentedly high and remain an enduring threat.
Russia is therefore unlikely to agree to this even if the West coerces Ukraine into ceding all of the disputed regions, which is unlikely in any case, since that would amount to the nature of NATO-emanating threats in Ukraine being much worse than pre-SMO. At most, Russia might agree to modern offensive arms flowing into Ukraine and maybe Western troops west of the Dnieper, but only if everything east of the river is demilitarized and the US significantly decreases its forces in Europe.
The demilitarization proposal was first put forth in January here and would also entail this “Trans-Dnieper” region (TDR) being controlled by non-Western peacekeepers with only a token Ukraine presence such as local police forces. This arrangement aligns with the spirit of what’s now being considered per the previously cited report with regard to neutral countries’ peacekeepers patrolling the front, NATO-trained Ukrainian troops behind them, and then Western ones some distance back.
The differences though are that the TDR wouldn’t be demilitarized due to the presence of NATO-trained Ukrainian troops there and the EU would enforce a no-fly zone, whether over all of Ukraine or just west of the TDR. Russia might accept NATO-trained Ukrainian troops in the TDR if Kiev cedes all of the disputed regions, but a no-fly zone over there would likely remain unacceptable. A significant decrease in US forces in Europe, however, might make one west of the Dnieper more palatable for Russia.
To summarize, Trump’s interest in continuing his new policy of indirectly arming Ukraine via NATO and even aiding some of the bloc’s forces there could in theory be approved by Russia as part of a political solution, but only under very specific conditions. These are territorial cessions and a demilitarized TDR controlled by non-Western peacekeepers, while an EU-enforced no-fly zone west of the river might – in the highly unlikely scenario that it’s agreed to – require a significant decrease in US forces in Europe.
The problem though is that Trump has ramped up his rhetoric against Russia after the recent White House Summit on security guarantees with Zelensky and a handful of European leaders. This includes counterfactually slamming Biden for not authorizing Ukrainian attacks inside of Russia’s universally recognized territory and threatening economic war with Russia if Putin doesn’t compromise. Trump might thus try to make Putin’s worst-case scenario a fait accompli as explained in this analytical series:
* 16 August: “What’s Standing In The Way Of A Grand Compromise On Ukraine?”
* 21 August: “Which Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine Might Be Acceptable To Putin?”
* 22 August: “Direct NATO Intervention In Ukraine Might Soon Dangerously Turn Into A Fait Accompli”
The EU, Zelensky, and US warmongers like Lindsey Graham would prefer for Trump to either make unacceptable demands of Putin that sabotage the peace process, which can then be spun to justify Western escalation, or dangerously force him into this fait accompli. Judging from Trump’s words thus far and recent reports, he’s pushing his luck with Putin; who’s open to compromises, not concessions, let alone significant security ones. If this approach doesn’t change, then a serious escalation is expected.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Tamar Braxton “almost died” in bloody fall; Dylan Walsh’s stroke caused his car crash; Pauly Shore weeps over pancreatic tumor; Keith Leak, Jr. has “4 new tumors” in his diaphragm & liver
Charlotte newscaster John Carter’s “skin cancer journey”; Buffalo Bills’ QB Jim Kelly’s newborn grandson has “cardiac health crisis”; influencer Brooke Eby, 38, has ALS; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerAug 29 |
Celebs:
UNITED STATES
Singer Tamar Braxton says she ‘almost died’ two days ago after waking up in a ‘pool of blood’
August 20, 2025
Singer Tamar Braxton revealed that she “almost died” two days ago after finding herself in a “pool of blood”. The 48-year-old singer took to her Instagram Story on Tuesday, August 19, to inform her fans that she had a severe accident over the weekend that nearly cost her her life. In Tamar’s alarming post, she wrote, “I struggled to write this but everyone keeps calling me and honestly, I can’t even really talk anymore I’m so weak.” She continued, “I almost died Sunday. I was found in a pool of blood from my friend with a face injury. As the days go by the worse it is. I fractured my nose, lost some teeth and mobility.” Tamar went on to add, “The way I look at life now is totally different. As my health is on the mend my mental journey begins… pray for me for real [broken heart emojis].”
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s Note – Tamar Braxton Reminds You To Get Vaccinated [sic] PSA:
‘Nip/Tuck’ Star Dylan Walsh Suffered Stroke That Led to Car Crash, Says Rep
August 27, 2025
“Nip/Tuck” star Dylan Walsh‘s serious car crash in New Jersey is taking an interesting twist … with his rep telling TMZ the actor suffered a stroke behind the wheel.
TMZ broke the story … police say moments after police responded when Dylan’s SUV swerved into oncoming traffic and slammed into two utility poles, he said his crew had been drinking at a restaurant/bar — and he appeared “very red and looked very confused” when talking to officers. Dylan’s wife, kids and another adult were riding with him in the car.
Pauly Shore breaks down in tears as he speaks of getting tumor taken out of his pancreas
August 27, 2025
Pauly Shore revealed that he had a benign tumor removed from his pancreas in a teary clip on Instagram posted Wednesday afternoon.
The 57-year-old comedian implored his 642,000-plus followers on the platform to circulate his message about getting preventative scans, in hopes that they could potentially save lives by spreading awareness about the cause.
‘Preventative scans are rare,’ Shore said. ‘Most people only get a scan when something is already wrong.
‘People avoid them for different reasons. Maybe they can’t afford it (a full body scan costs around $1,000-$2,000), or maybe they don’t want to know.’
The star of 90s comedies such as Encino Man, Son in Law and Bio-Dome was seated in a hospital bed as he spoke about the chain of events that led to the major medical procedure being performed.
‘About three months ago, I went in for a preventative scan in Las Vegas at SimonMed, where they scan your body from head to toe,’ Shore said in the caption of the clip. ‘They check for tumors, cancer, aneurysms, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, you name it. Being in my 50s, I thought it was the right thing to do.’
Pauly Shore celebrates the rollout of the “vaccine”:
Beloved Comedy Star Diagnosed With 4 Cancerous Tumors, GoFundMe Launched
August 20, 2025
Smosh star Keith Leak Jr. [33] is battling cancer once again. The actor and YouTube personality, who previously underwent surgery in 2023 to remove a Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor (GIST), confirmed Tuesday that his cancer had returned to his diaphragm and liver. “As many of you know my cancer has returned,” Leak wrote on Instagram. “The doctor found 4 new tumors (2 larger sized tumors in my diaphragm and 2 more smaller tumors on my liver).” Leak first announced in April 2021 that he was diagnosed with a 10-inch Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor, and he underwent an operation to remove the cancerous tumor in July 2023. Leaving the hospital after seven days, Leak said at the time that despite the “long road to recovery” ahead of him and the pain from his surgery, “after a two year battle I can officially say I KICKED CANCERS ASS!!!!”
Researcher’s Note – Leak was working in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link
[TV newscaster] John Carter: Inside my latest skin cancer journey
August 25, 2025
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – “Slather on the sunscreen.” I’ve said it time and time again. And if you do it, you could possibly avoid going through what I’ve had to deal with for many years: skin cancer. In fact, I just went through a bout of skin cancer last week. If you were watching our evening newscasts, you saw I had a very visible bandage on my forehead. That was to cover the spot of cancer that had to be cut out. In my latest visit to the wonderful doctors and staff of Dermatology, Laser & Vein Specialists of the Carolinas here in Charlotte, I went through what’s known as Mohs (rhymes with nose) micrographic surgery to remove a basal cell carcinoma on my forehead.
No age reported.
Former WWE Star Brian Jossie (Abraham Washington) Recovering After Being On Life Support
August 24, 2025
Brian Jossie [48], known to WWE fans as Abraham Washington, has been released from the hospital and is now home recovering after a life-threatening medical emergency last month that saw him placed on life support. The situation began last month when Jossie, who has been competing in bodybuilding since his time in wrestling, was taken to an emergency room with severe stomach pain following a show. According to reports, tests determined that he had suffered a tear in his intestines, which required immediate surgery. While the initial surgery was successful, Jossie experienced serious complications afterward. He aspirated, which caused fluid to go into his lungs. This led to him being put on a ventilator and placed in an induced coma, and he was on life support for a period of time. After nearly a month in the hospital, Jossie has now recovered enough to be sent home.
Influencer Brooke Eby Struggled to Find Stylish Clothing After ALS Diagnosis. Now She’s Changing That
August 22, 2025
At the intersection of fashion and inclusion, Brooke Eby is advocating for disabled individuals like herself. The influencer, 36, has made her name online sharing the good, bad and often unavoidably comical realities of her life with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). On a daily basis, Eby shares how her terminal illness has progressed since her initial diagnosis three years ago; over 249,000 TikTok followers have supported Eby as she makes the most of the symptoms that cause her to use a wheelchair and a feeding tube.
Jim Kelly shares major update on newborn grandson Beau’s cardiac health crisis after Bills legend’s 38 days of ‘desperate prayers’ and ‘tears’
August 21, 2025
Jim Kelly’s family has something to celebrate. The former Buffalo Bills quarterback, 65, shared a series of photos on Instagram over the weekend and announced that his newborn grandson was finally able to return home from the hospital after 38 days. “THE BEST UPDATE: Erin and Parker said it best…Home ,” Jim said in a joint post with his longtime wife Jill Kelly, going on to reshare his daughter and son-in-law’s words. “After 38 days in the Pediatric Cardiac Care Center, we’re finally home. His heart still has a lot of healing ahead, so prayer doesn’t stop here. Believing for more healing each day. One day at a time. We can’t wait to share more of his incredible life with you.”
MEXICO
Regina Murguía clarifies her health status after cancer surgery
August 11, 2025
Singer Regina Murguía, a member of the group JNS, broke her silence to deny that her health is serious after undergoing surgery to remove intestinal polyps that turned out to be cancerous. In a video posted on her social media, she explained that the procedure was not an emergency and that she is currently recovering. Murger said she has already resumed her professional activities and even gave her first concert less than a month after the operation, just before her 40th birthday. Although she acknowledged that she has been an emotionally difficult process, she asked for understanding and announced that she will discuss the topic in more detail a little bit later.
BRAZIL
Luziânia Mayor Diego Sorgatto undergoes emergency surgery; his condition is stable
August 23, 2025
In a statement released this Saturday (23), Sorgatto’s team reported that the surgical procedure was successful and that his health is improving. Luziânia Mayor Diego Sorgatto underwent emergency surgery last Friday, the 22nd. As reported by Jornal Opção do Entorno, he was diagnosed with intestinal thrombosis, a serious condition that requires immediate intervention.
No age reported.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
CALIFORNIA USA
California Faces High Pump Prices As Phillips 66 Shuts LA Refinery
Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 – 09:45 PM
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Phillips 66 will begin shutting down its 139,000 bpd Los Angeles-area refinery as soon as next week, sources told Reuters, moving forward on a closure plan announced last year. Units at the plant will idle in phases through Q4 2025, with the facility permanently offline by year-end.
The decision isn’t a surprise—Phillips 66 said in October it would exit the site, citing “market dynamics.” But it comes with fallout: about 600 employees and 300 contractors will lose their jobs by December, with only a handful reassigned to the company’s marine terminal. The company insists it will support workers through the transition, though local officials remain worried about the economic hit.
California, meanwhile, is staring at a bigger problem. Between Phillips 66’s LA facility and Valero’s Benicia refinery, scheduled to close in 2026, the state is set to lose roughly 17% of its refining capacity. That’s a dangerous haircut in a state already paying the nation’s highest pump prices. Analysts warn that by late 2026, California gasoline could top $8 a gallon if supply disruptions collide with fewer in-state refineries.
Lawmakers appear caught flat-footed. California has prided itself on leading the clean energy charge, but the state has no system-wide transition plan to manage a shrinking refinery fleet. Imports will plug some of the gap, but relying on tankers means higher costs and more emissions at the ports. For now, policymakers are scrambling to balance climate ambition with the political pain of $6-plus fuel.
The closure also lands as Phillips 66 wrestles with other headaches. Earlier this month, a California court hit the refiner with an $800 million judgment in a biofuels trade secrets case, and earlier this year, activist hedge fund Elliott Management pressed the company to spin off assets to boost shareholder value.
In the end, the LA refinery shutdown is part of a larger trend. Refining is being squeezed worldwide by overcapacity, shifting demand, and environmental rules. But in California, the lack of a clear bridge plan means refinery retirements risk sparking exactly the kind of fuel crunch the state wanted to avoid.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
GREENLAND/DENMARK/USA
USA on a tear trying to gain energy stakes//rare earths in Greenland
(zerohedge)
Greenland’s Energy Stakes Trigger Denmark-U.S. Diplomatic Clash
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 03:30 AM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Denmark has summoned the U.S. envoy after intelligence reports of suspected influence operations in Greenland, a mineral-rich Arctic territory central to offshore oil prospects and critical minerals, Reuters reported on Wednesday, describing the effort as an attempt to promote secession.
The development adds urgency to oversight of exploration and mining policy, with Danish officials saying the case could impact licensing timelines and control of future export routes.
According to media reports, at least three Americans tied to U.S. President Donald Trump engaged with Greenlandic politicians and figures and compiled lists of locals deemed supportive or hostile to U.S. aims. The foreign ministry called the activity unacceptable. The U.S. mission in Copenhagen is led by chargé d’affaires Mark Stroh.
Greenland contains significant deposits of rare earths and uranium alongside prospective offshore hydrocarbons that are undeveloped. Its position near emerging Arctic shipping lanes is elevating its value for energy trade and mineral exports as sea ice thins. The resource profile positions Greenland to supply permanent-magnet materials for wind turbines and EV motors, while uranium lends a dual energy role. Western planners also eye Greenland for catalysts and grid storage feedstocks.
Earlier this year, U.S. officials pressed the Tanbreez project to bypass Chinese buyers, highlighting how competition over critical minerals is shaping Arctic policy and procurement strategies. The island’s proximity to the Arctic makes it a logical focus for President Trump’s transactional approach to securing energy and minerals. Investors note Arctic corridors that could shorten voyages for crude and LNG. Seasonal access windows remain limited but widening.
Local leaders have maintained a cautious posture toward large-scale extraction. Environmental and social concerns have slowed efforts to transform the territory into a mining superpower, even as demand grows for materials used in wind turbines, batteries, and defense systems. Officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen continue to state that the island is not for sale. Greenland’s cabinet continues to weigh environmental baselines, hiring, and revenue-sharing before advancing projects.
END
MEXICO SENATE
Watch: Mexican Senators Brawl After Heated Debate Over US Intervention Vs Cartels
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 01:20 PM
With cameras rolling, tension over potential US military intervention against Mexico’s drug cartels erupted into a shoving-and-slapping bout between legislators at the podium of the Senate chambers on Wednesday.
Senator Alejandro “Alito” Moreno, who leads the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), was apparently incensed over the refusal of his demands to participate in the floor debate, which featured accusations that PRI and the National Action Party (PAN) had called for the US military to strike the cartels inside Mexico — which both parties deny.
Earlier this month, President Trump reportedly issued a new directive authorizing the Pentagon to conduct direct military operations against select Latin American drug cartels designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). Last week, PAN member Lilly Tellez told Fox News, that “help from the United States to fight the cartels is absolutely welcome, and that is how the majority of Mexicans feel. The only ones who don’t like that President Trump is sending help…are the narco-politicians, and that includes President [Claudia] Scheinbaum.”
Tellez compounded the tension in Wednesday’s debate, saying she had “a clean record,” unlike what she labelled “the Morena mafia.” She condemned members of the ruling Morena party as “narcopoliticians” and “narco-Satanics,” and credited her faith in God and Mexicans for giving her the resolve to “make the Morenarcos tremble.” Her barbs prompted shouts of “sellout” and “traitor.”
As the session was ending, the 50-year-old Moreno strode to the podium and accosted 65-year-old Senate President Gerardo Fernandez Norona, of the Morena party. Along with the rest of the Senate, Norona was singing the national anthem, in accordance with the custom for closing out sessions, but Moreno continued shouting at him. After the anthem ended, Norona turned to talk to Moreno, and the ensuing shouting match grew violent after Moreno grabbed Noreno’s arm.
As the two engaged in a shoving match, a cameraman stepped in front of Moreno, and was greeted with a firm, two-armed shove that sent him to the floor. Another man proceeded to pummel the cameraman on the ground, and Moreno’s fellow PRI member, Carlos Gutiérrez Mancilla, pursued the Senate president out of the hall, grabbing him by the suit-jacket and punching him. El Pais reports that the cameraman was injured, with medics putting him in a neck brace.
“What confrontation? He hit me and said, ‘I’m going to kill you’,” Norona told reporters later. Chumming the waters, Norona added, “Today, when (opposition legislators) are exposed for their treason, they lose their minds because they were exposed.” Norona said he would pursue an emergency Friday session to expel Moreno and three other PRI legislators. He also said he will file a complaint against Moreno for attacking him and the cameraman, and ask authorities to revoke Moreno’s legislative immunity.
Meanwhile, Moreno took to X to blame Norona: “He was the one who started the attack; he did it because he couldn’t silence us with arguments. The first physical aggression came from Norona. He threw the first shove, and he did it out of cowardice.”
Both senators are involved in separate controversies. Moreno faces possible impeachment proceedings for alleged corruption during his tenure as governor of Campeche state from 2015 to 2019. Norona has been criticized over reports that he owns an expensive house at a time when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has urged public officials to live modestly. — CBS News
Scheinbaum has firmly and repeatedly rejected any U.S. military presence on Mexican soil. “The United States is not going to come to Mexico with the military. We cooperate, we collaborate, but there is not going to be an invasion. That is ruled out, absolutely ruled out,” she told the New York Times. “It is not part of any agreement, far from it. When it has been brought up, we have always said no.”
Meanwhile, one can’t help but wonder how strong Sen. Tellez’s security is, as she repeatedly rails against the cartels and accuses members of the Mexican government of working directly with them…
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1665 DOWN 0.0013 PTS OR 13 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.15 UP 0.025 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3487 DOWN .0020 OR 20 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3752 UP 0.0003 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 14.23 PTS OR 0.37%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 222.58 PTS OR 0.89%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.11%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 222.58 PTS OR 0.89%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.23 PTS OR 0.37%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.02 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 110.32 PTS OR 0.20%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3407.80
silver:$38.79
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.92 UP 18 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.172% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.616% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS AND 1/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.320 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.608 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7107 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1663 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 basis points
USA/Japan: 147,31 UP 0.476 OR YEN IS UP 48 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7140 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.3774
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1323 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1280
TURKISH LIRA: 41.15 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.616
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.225% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.914 UP 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.637 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3417,40
SILVER AT 11;00: 38.93
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 38.68 PTS OR .42%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 29.48 pts or 0.32%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 137.71 pts or 0.57%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 135.60pts or 0.90%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 250.90 or 0.59%
WTI Oil price 64.36 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 67.75 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.36 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 4/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.408 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.913 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1696 UP 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3509 UP .0001 OR 1 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7220 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.611 UP 0.10 FULL BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.98 UP 0.15 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3732 DOWN 0.0019 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 64.00
Brent OIL: 67.36
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.217
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 PTS to 4.919%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 3.617%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.375 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.883 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.71 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.15 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.36 DOWN 0 AND 6/100 roubles //
GOLD $3445.50 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 39.77 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 92.03 OR 0.20%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 288.03 PTS OR 1.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.36 UP 0.93 OR 6.05%
GLD: $ 318.07 UP 3.04 PTS OR 0.96%
SLV/ $36.19 UP 0.67 PTS OR OR 1.89%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 129.65 PTS OR 0.46%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Big Month For Bonds & Bullion As Stocks Swing From August Angst To September’s Sloppy Seasonals
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 08:00 PM
China was the big winner across global stocks in August as liquidity floods into the ‘economy’ with US and Europe lagging…
Source: Bloomberg
US stocks are trading lower Friday but still on pace for a very modest 1-2% gain for the month of August (for the S&P 500) as investors have been reacting this month to a rising probability that the Fed will cut rates following a weak jobs report at the start of the month (literally August 1st) and even as both business and consumer sentiment has shown signs of improvement throughout August. The Nasdaq was the month’s laggard with Small Caps squeezed to outperform…
Source: Bloomberg
Momentum stocks suffered their worst monthly drop since July 2024 with momo longs ending red and momo shorts squeezed notably higher (a double whammy of pain)…
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks underperformed the S&P 493 on the month thanks mainly to today’s weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
Market breadth is extremely narrow…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Hedge Funds had a tough month, eking out tiny gains according to Goldman’s proxy index (but significantly lagged the broad market)…
Source: Bloomberg
These are the risks that Goldman’s Chris Hussey is monitoring.
Growth. Jan Hatzius sees a path for the Fed to restart its rate cutting cycle at its September meeting at least partly because the labor market is showing signs of slowing. The July Payrolls report included downward revisions to prior months’ data that suggest the labor market has been subpar for quite some time now.
Despite the plunge at the start of the month (payrolls miss), August saw US macro dramatically outperform…
Source: Bloomberg
And our economists estimate that underlying job growth has plummeted to ~25k jobs per month from over 200k to start the year.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Inflation. So far, CPI and PCE inflation have remained constrained even in the face of much higher tariff burdens for importers. But July wholesale inflation — PPI — came in much higher than expected, partly reflecting the tariff impulse. And July Core PCE inflation reported today was in-line with expectations, but still elevated at +0.27% mom, +2.88% yoy, driven entirely by services inflation as goods inflation remains anemic despite the introduction of new tariffs.
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed. The consensus view is for the Fed to cut rates at its September meeting.
Source: Bloomberg
But the notion of Fed independence came under greater scrutiny in August on the back of statements and actions taken by the Trump Administration. Allison Nathan explored just what Fed Independence means for monetary policy, noting that for markets, a less independent Fed could dent the appeal of the Dollar and US Treasuries, while boosting Gold.
Financial Conditions loosened dramatically over the past few weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
AI efficacy. The AI infrastructure investment cycle continued unabated through July and likely through the summer as our analysts highlighted in a series of notes on the hyperscalers. But the prospect for this huge increase in compute power to translate into tangible applications that change peoples lives remains somewhat elusive. Gabriela Borges and Rangan highlighted how the underperformance in software stocks over concerns that AI will replace the need for legacy software applications is overdone. And earlier in the summer, Jim Covello and Sheridan dove into how AI may meaningfully (or not) disrupt existing profit pools, providing visibility on a path to a return on all of this investment. Bottom-line: the path to returns may be long, and in the meantime the cost to clear the way is very expensive and profits have so far been concentrated in a single company: NVDA.
NVDA suffered its first losing month (down 2%) since March…
Source: Bloomberg
Irrational exuberance. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan coined this phrase back in late 1996, capturing his concerns around inflated asset valuations in the wake of a sharp rally in stocks that took place following a steady Fed funds rate hiking cycle that ended in mid-1995. Fast forward to today, and we are seeing similar characteristics in some corners of the market just before what many expect will be a sustained Fed funds rate cutting cycle re-starting at the September FOMC meeting. David Kostin points out that the S&P 500 is now trading at 23X NTM earnings estimates. Ben Snider also highlighted that “Speculative trading activity adds fuel to narrow-breadth short squeeze,” and how a spike in trading activity in unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with elevated EV/sales multiples pushed our Speculative Trading Indicator (STI) to its highest level outside of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021 (both periods that were soon followed by Tech stock crashes).
Source: Goldman Sachs
Against all of this backdrop, the VIX is actually sitting near ytd lows at 15.5, and Goldman cautions that risk/reward now skews to the downside. Low vol coming at the same time as we are seeing a combination of elevated equity valuations and a weakening business cycle makes for an elevated probability of an equity drawdown.
Equity drawdown risk has picked up recently, despite the Goldilocks volatility reset
Source: Goldman Sachs
And the valuation stretch doesn’t just apply to stocks. Lotfi Karoui advocates keeping some downside protection in Credit portfolios given stretched valuations…
Source: Bloomberg
What about that wall of worry? A wall of worry is easier to climb when an investor is not too long that wall’s foundation (stocks). The good news: Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock represents 2.3% of float, near the highest level since 2019. And our Hedge Fund Crowding Index remains near record highs and market breadth registers one of the narrowest levels in recent decades, a dynamic that has often preceded short squeezes in the past.
Source: Goldman Sachs
August saw yields broadly lower with the short-end significantly outperforming (30Y unch)…
Source: Bloomberg
2s30s up 35bps in August – the second biggest monthly steepening since March 2023 – breaking out of its recent range to its steepest since Nov 2021
Source: Bloomberg
Bond vol has plunged in recent weeks – now at its lowest since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was down in August (its 7th month lower of the last 8), sparked mostly by the poor payrolls print to start the month. For the last 3 weeks, it has been stuck around the 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
After three months of gains, oil prices fell in August…
Source: Bloomberg
Having traded rangebound for the last three months, gold surged to a new record closing high in August…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin significantly lagged gold on the month…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver outperformed gold on the month, dragging the ratio down to YTD lows around 86x…
Source: Bloomberg
After four straight monthly gains, Bitcoin suffered its worst month since February, down 7% MoM after touching new record highs intra-month…
Source: Bloomberg
…and dramatically underperforming stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum massively outperformed (up 16% on the month vs BTC -7%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, today’s stock market weakness casts a shadow heading into what is historically the toughest month for US equities.
The S&P 500 has declined in September 56% of the time, with an average drop of 1.17%, according to Bank of America’s Paul Ciana, citing data back to 1927.
And seasonals for volatility do not paint a pretty picture…
But, if you’re worried about the USA as a sovereign entity – panicked over Trump’s policies and Fed un-independence – you can stop… now!
Source: Bloomberg
The market has culled risk levels from ‘worse than Greece’ shortly after Liberation Day, back to near record lows (a good thing for a sovereign credit risk). Translation: the market is not worried about Trump’s impact on the USA into the long weekend.
USA DATA RELEASES
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Signs Of Runaway Tariff Costs
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 08:41 AM
Having ticked higher in June, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in July and Core PCE – The Fed’s favorite indicator – to rise from +2.8% to +2.9% YoY… and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations.
‘As Expected’ is the them of this morning’s data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years… not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that was predicted…
Source: Bloomberg
Durable Goods prices decline MoM while Services costs increased the most…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) and +2.6% YoY (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Super Core PCE – Services Ex-Shelter – rose to +3.32% YoY in July – the same level it was at in July 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Financial Services costs (soaring stock market?) dominated SuperCore prices (and certainly have nothing to do with tariffs at all)…
Source: Bloomberg
So stocks up, financial services costs up, inflation up? Blame Trump?
Source: Bloomberg
So while prices are rising but in their recent normal range, income and spending rose just ‘as expected’, up 0.4% MoM and 0.5% MoM respectively…
Source: Bloomberg
On the income side, for the first time since Dec 2022, wages of private workers (5.1% YoY) are rising faster than government workers (4.8%)
Real personal spending (adjusted for inflation) rose 2.1% YoY (slower than recent months but still positive)…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly screaming that the consumer is struggling with the savings rate flat at 4.4% of DPI…
…the lack of inflationary impact from tariffs is ‘transitory‘?
end
UMich Takes Flamethrower To What Little Was Left Of Its Credibility…
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 10:10 AM
Confirming the preliminary data, UMich final prints showed sentiment weakening and inflation fears returning in August, with both Current Conditions and Expectations declining…
Source: Bloomberg
Buying conditions for durable goods subsided to their lowest reading in a year, and current personal finances declined 7%, both due to heightened concerns about high prices.
“Sentiment now stands about 11% above readings from April and May but remains at least 10% below 6 and 12 months ago,” said UMich Survey Director Joanne Hsu.
“This month’s decrease was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Moreover, perceptions of many aspects of the economy slipped.”
That said, expectations for personal finances held steady this month, albeit at relatively subdued levels relative to a year ago.
This month, few consumers spontaneously mentioned the recent events at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve (interviews closed on Monday, August 25, the day Trump announced he was firing Governor Cook).
After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations rebounded higher in August (though ended the month lower than preliminary data) with year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.8% final this month (4.9% prelim) and long-run inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.5% final (down from 3.9% prelim)…
Source: Bloomberg
We have no idea what the fuck is going on with this elevated inflation expectation all three political cohorts saw one-year inflation expectations decline…
Source: Bloomberg
UMich continues to take a flamethrower to what little was left of its credibility.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES/NEWS
USA/CHINA
this will hurt China badly as small trade with the USA ends:
Trump Closes De Minimis Loophole As Dark Chapter In Trade Ends
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 08:25 AM
The long-standing “de minimis” exemption, which allowed small packages valued less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, officially ended Friday. This closes the dark chapter on an era when China flooded America with cheap junk (think $10 Bluetooth wireless speakers) and, according to many in the America First movement inside the White House, helped flood the nation with fentanyl precursor chemicals – if not fentanyl itself – and fueled the drug-death crisis unlike anything this nation has ever seen. Think of it as a modern-day reverse Opium War (hybrid warfare by the CCP).
For those with a background in Latin, “de minimis” translates to “too small to matter.” But that’s certainly not the case. Since 2015, the number of packages entering the U.S. under this exemption has surged from 134 million packages per year to 1.36 billion by 2024. Much of this flood originated from Chinese e-commerce giants, including SheIn Group and Temu.
The decade-long tsunami of small packages flooding the U.S. didn’t just undercut domestic small businesses. It also created a backdoor for illegal drugs and fentanyl precursor chemicals from China to slip in undetected, fueling the drug-death crisis now killing more than 100,000 Americans every year.
“The de minimis exemption has been abused, with shippers sending illicit fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, precursors, and paraphernalia into the United States in reliance on the lower security measures applied to de minimis shipments, killing Americans,” the White House stated in late July.
Washington-based Greg Husisian, head of the international trade practice at Foley & Lardner, told Bloomberg that President Trump “actually had bipartisan support” in tackling the de minimis exemption mess.
“This was intended for grandma sending over an $80 package of toys, not like a huge Chinese company sending tens of thousands of packages every single day of $12 T-shirts,” Husisian pointed out.
Under the new rules enforced today via Trump’s executive order signed in July, all foreign shipments, except verified gifts under $100, will face new duties.
We pointed out last week (read the report) that several global postal office services warned about emerging bottlenecks in U.S. inbound shipping lines over confusion about duty collections:
- Asia: Korea Post and SingPost are halting standard parcel services, while Japan warns of delays.
- Europe: Norway, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, and the UK are suspending or limiting services; Deutsche Post/DHL halted business parcels via postal networks.
- Australia: Transit shipments through Australia to the U.S. are paused, though direct U.S. deliveries remain.
Multinational logistics company DHL warned customers one week ago about mounting confusion over how duties would be collected.
“Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out,” DHL stated in the letter.
Millions of low-value packages today will lose their duty-free treatment and be subject to standard tariff rates or temporary flat fees of $80 to $200 per item for a period of six months.
For more details on rates. Customs and Border Protection outlined earlier this month in a bulletin how the flat fees would be calculated, corresponding to the countries’ tariff rates.
“It is a real concern that the dominoes are falling and there will be a ripple effect where more and more posts announce that they will be suspending packages to the US,” warned Kate Muth, executive director of the International Mailers Advisory Group, which represents the U.S. international mailing and shipping industry, quoted by Bloomberg last week.
USA/NORWAY
Graham Threatens Tariffs, Travel Sanctions On Norway Over Boycott Of IDF, Caterpillar
Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 – 04:40 PM
Senator Lindsey Graham has blasted and threatened Norway twice in the last 24 hours, soon after the Scandinavian country’s $2 trillion wealth fund – which springs largely from energy resources – announced it is divesting from Caterpillar over concerns the Israeli military has been using its bulldozers to violate human rights in Gaza and against Palestinians.
Norway’s wealth fund held a 1.17% stake in the Texas-headquartered company, which was valued at $2.1 billion as of June 30. Graham has put Norway on notice: “To those who run Norway’s sovereign wealth fund: if you cannot do business with Caterpillar because Israel uses their products, maybe it’s time you’re made aware that doing business or visiting America is a privilege, not a right,” the US rep stated Thursday on X.
Graham continued with his warning: “Maybe it’s time to put tariffs on countries who refuse to do business with great American companies.”
“Or maybe we shouldn’t give visas to individuals who run organizations that attempt to punish American companies for geopolitical differences,” he said, threatening to back new travel restrictions on Norwegians. “I would urge you to reconsider your shortsighted decision.”
President Trump is likely to be open to putting such pressure on Norway, given the Caterpillar boycott action could also gain steam among other countries, given Oslo’s example.
While Caterpillar’s products are classified as “construction” equipment, the IDF regularly uses massive, armored Caterpillar D-9 bulldozers to destroy homes and other civilian infrastructure – not only in Gaza, but the occupied West Bank as well. For example, Palestinian roads have been routinely destroyed by such equipment.
Prior to his Thursday tweet lashing out, Graham had initially reacted by calling it a “BS decision” by Norway which “will not go unanswered”…
In Norway, divestment decisions are largely driven by the recommendations of an independent ethics council established by the Finance Ministry. After evaluating Caterpillar, the Council on Ethics reported earlier this week:
“There is an unacceptable risk that Caterpillar is contributing to serious violation of the rights of individuals in situations of war or conflict… Bulldozers manufactured by Caterpillar are being used by Israeli authorities in the widespread unlawful destruction of Palestinian property...There is no doubt that Caterpillar’s products are being used to commit extensive and systematic violations of international humanitarian law. The company has also not implemented any measures to prevent such use.”
Caterpillar has long been one of the principal targets of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign, which – echoing the 1980s divestment campaign against South African apartheid – attempts to use economic pressure on Israel to advance the Palestinian cause. In an infamous 2003 incident, an IDF soldier used a Caterpillar D-9 to fatally crush 23-year-old American activist Rachel Corrie as she tried to prevent the IDF from destroying homes in Rafah, Gaza.
Again, Graham’s leading the charge against Norway to pressure its wealth fund to reverse its decisions is likely to get noticed by Trump, and will likely be framed as an assault on ‘America First’. It will be interesting to see if there’s any attempt to take real action in Congress, or by the White House.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
KING NEWS
| The King Report August 29, 2025 Issue 7566 | Independent View of the News |
| Nvidia Erases Drop on Reported Talks to Sell Blackwell to China – BBG 9:09 ET (Pending Trump Administration approval; NVDA would give cut of sales to US) Nvidia Analysts Look Past Tepid Outlook, Lift Price Targets – BBG 9:15 ET At least 10 firms hiked their 12-month price targets… raising their average by 3% to $202.60… Nvidia gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, projecting sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter… some analysts had projected more than $60 billion… Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with 72 buy-equivalent ratings. Only seven analysts have a hold rating and the stock has a sole selling rating… US Q2 GDP 3.3% annualized (3.1% expected) on a 5.7% gain in business investment and a 4.8% jump in gross domestic income. Personal Consumption (1.6%), the GDP Price Index (2.0%), and the Core PCE Price Index (2.5%) were as expected. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-08/gdp2q25-2nd.pdf Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Initial Jobless Claims 229k, 230k expected, prior 234k from 235k Continuing Jobless Claims 1.954m, 1.966m expected, prior 1.961m from 1.972m The fight to protect NVDA positions was frantic; at least 10 brokers lifted their price targets. We opined that the big game on Thursday would be a contest between fundamental sellers and street denizens that needed to defend their Nvidia holdings after disappointing results. And NVDA is priced for nirvana! Nvidia opened at its high (184.47) but quickly sank to 179.35 at 9:35 ET. After a dip-buying bounce to 181.52 at 9:40 ET, NVDA sank to 176.42 at 9:58 ET. Apparently, a critical mass of investors and traders ignored CEO Jensen’s routine hype and the Street herd shilling for Nvidia. ESUs opened sharply lower on Wednesday night due to Nvidia’s disappoint results and continued to fall until they hit a daily low of 6471.00 at 20:23 ET. ESUs then commenced a classic 5-wave rally to a daily high of 6508.50 at 9:31 ET. Due to Nvidia’s early reversal, ESUs cratered to 6480.75 at 9:57 ET. Nvidia and ESU then had plodding rebounds that accelerated with the manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close. ESUs hit 6504.25 at 11:16 but sank to 6488.50 at 11:29 ET. Near noon ET, the NY Fang+ Index was +147.10 on ServiceNow +2.72%, Broadcom +2.55%, CrowdStrike +2.35%, and Google +2.03%. Nvidia was -1.5%. A Noon Balloon and August performance gaming took ESUs to a new daily high of 6513.00 at 12:28 ET. ESU divorced from Nvidia, which remained 1.2% lower at the time. After an A-B-C retreat, ESUs ambled to a new daily high of 6520.50 at 15:12 ET. After a retreat to 6515.25 at 14:37 ET, ESUs spiked to 6523.00 at 15:54 ET. ESUs fell to 6514.50 at the NYSE close. NVDA closed -0.82%. @dlacalle_IA: Federal Reserve Board – Guide to Conduct for Senior Officials: “They should be careful to avoid any dealings or other conduct that might convey even an appearance of conflict between their personal interests, the interests of the System, and the public interest.” Ex-Fed Gov Lisa Cook asked a US judge to issue a temporary order to halt Trump’s firing effort and to bar the Fed from removing her. Alas, Lisa Cook, and even Jerome Powell, can be removed from the Fed at the discretion of the president when “cause” is not codified; because cause then “is a matter of discretion and not reviewable,” according to the SCOTUS. https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26078055/cooktrumpcomp082825.pdf (William R.) Reagan v. United States, 182 U.S. 419 (1901) The inquiry is therefore whether there were any causes of removal prescribed by law March 1, 1895, or at the time of the removal. If there were, then the rule would apply that, where causes of removal are specified by Constitution or statute, as also where the term of office is for a fixed period, notice and hearing are essential. If there were not, the appointing power could remove at pleasure or for such cause as it deemed sufficient. The suggestion that the proviso refers to such causes as courts might recognize as just will not do, for “prescribed by law” is prescribed by legislative act, and removal for cause, when causes are not defined nor removal for cause provided for, is a matter of discretion, and not reviewable… https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/182/419/ @j_fishback (Citing Cook’s lawsuit): “the allegation [mortgage fraud] is wholly unrelated to her official duties.” What on earth is Cook talking about? She works at the Federal Reserve—her job is to *stop* mortgage fraud, not commit it herself. https://x.com/j_fishback/status/1961068953159049643 US Director of Housing @pulte: Well, in addition to alleged mortgage and other fraud, there is new info we are learning about her (Lisa Cook) deceitfulness while in office. I wonder why she didn’t put her personal address on the lawsuit. CNBC: Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Trump skirts mortgage fraud allegation https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/lisa-cooks-lawsuit-against-trump-skirts-mortgage-fraud-allegation.html Lisa Cook Emergency Hearing Scheduled For 10 Friday Morning – BBG 12:32 ET Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied sharply on manipulation to game August performance. S&P 500 Index closed above 6500 and at an all-time high. USUs rallied moderately because auctions for the week ended, and dealers marked up holdings. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined; the DJIA only rallied modestly. Nvidia was negative for most of the session and closed -0.82%. The dollar declined moderately; gold rallied. Ambiguous aspects of previous session With September arriving, how concerned about a bubble burst should we be? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6492.35 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6508.23; 6466.96 US Director of Housing @pulte: I continued to be asked about Lisa Cook, Letitia James, and Hunter Biden sharing the same lawyer. My response: “No comment”. Thank you. @ElectionWiz: White House says President Trump will NOT allow 600,000 more Chinese students. It’s a continuation of current policy, no increase in visas from China. (After blowback, DJT retreats!) Fed Balance Sheet: -$15.031B with MBS-$13.918B; Reserves: -$92.325B @TaviCosta: Foreign central banks now officially hold more gold than US Treasuries — for the first time since 1996. Let that sink in. If you think this buying streak is ending, just look at what happened in the 1970s. This is likely the beginning of one of the most significant global rebalancings we’ve experienced in recent history, in my view. https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1960908250980999436 The King of Debt is true to his self-proclaimed nickname and his resume! US Pending Home Sales are worse than during the GFC and are near 2020 Covid Panic lows. https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1961077232748654917/photo/1 Today is the end of August, the last Summer Friday, and day before the Labor Day Weekend. The manipulation of Fangs and ESUs (bonds too) to game August performance that appeared on Thursday should continue today. The markets will be very thin. ESUs are -3.50; NQUs are -25.25; AU is +1.70; and USUs are -1/32 at 20:05 ET. Expected Economic Data: July Personal Income 0.4% m/m, Spending 0.5%, PCE Price Index 0.2% m/m & 2.6% y/y, Core PCE 0.3% m/m & 2.9% y/y; July Trade Balance -$90.0B; July Wholesale Inventories 0.2% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.2%; Aug Chicago PMI 46.5; Aug UM Sentiment 58.6, Current Conditions 60.8, Expectations 57.5, 1-yr Inflation 5.0%, 5-10-yr Inflation 3.9% S&P Index 50-day MA: 6307; 100-day MA: 6003; 150-day MA: 5950; 200-day MA: 5957 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,357; 100-day MA: 42,820; 150-day MA: 42,914; 200-day MA: 43,085 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6501.86 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6116.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6376.02 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6474.78 triggers a sell signal Whistleblower fired after reporting Kentucky driver’s license scheme for illegal immigrants … two employees at one of the offices allegedly pocketed cash from undocumented drivers in exchange for a license by outfitting them with fake documents like birth certificates and social security cards… https://trib.al/NwrP3nv Trump has been strangely and puzzlingly silent on the Minnesota shootings. @nicksortor: RFK Jr. says HHS will be launching studies into SSRIs following the Minneapolis Catholic School shooting. “We’re launching studies on the potential contribution of some of the SSRI drugs and some of the other psychiatric drugs that might be contributing to violence.” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1961046886053281883 Minneapolis shooter Robin Westman’s unhinged letter to family reveals his twisted desire to slaughter children https://trib.al/qpRkDNW Minneapolis school shooter Robin Westman confessed he was ‘tired of being trans’: ‘I wish I never brain-washed myself’ (Trans activists are even more upset now!) “I can’t cut my hair now as it would be an embarrassing defeat, and it might be a concerning change of character that could get me reported… “I regret being trans. I wish I was a girl I just know I cannot achieve that body with the technology we have today. I also can’t afford that,”… https://trib.al/kbtqhRd https://x.com/odonnell_r/status/1961073262969889197 ‘Demonic’ Minneapolis mass shooter Robin Westman walked around saying ‘praise Hitler’ as a child: ex-friend – Josefina Sanchez said she is still tormented by how “erratic” and “off” Westman was when they were briefly friends in seventh grade at a school in St. Paul…. would later see him fantasizing about attacking “filthy Zionist jews.”… https://nypost.com/2025/08/28/us-news/demonic-minneapolis-shooter-robin-westman-would-say-praise-hitler-as-a-child-ex-classmate/ @odonnell_r: For those who state,“we still don’t know the motive” in the Minnesota shooting? Mental health and lack of intervention from those closest to him. “I have wanted this for so long. I am not well. l am not right. I am a sad person, haunted by these thoughts that do not go away. I know this is wrong but I can’t seem to stop Myself. I am severely depressed and have been suicidal for years. Only recently have I lost all hope and decided to perform my final action against this world. I don’t want to kneel down for the injustices of this world. I want to die. I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees, constantly in pain.” @WarlordDilley: The trans shooter in Minnesota had mental health issues. Rather than address those very real issues, his parents opted to begin transitioning him, utilizing multiple medications that made him even crazier. Charge the parents as accessories to murder, and this will stop. Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Minneapolis PD says they “have not been successful” in speaking with the mass shooter’s mother and they aren’t commenting on if they were able to make contact with his father. CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY: It’s time to have an honest conversation about what happens when we “affirm” and coddle mental illness in this country. We can no longer tip-toe around this issue. Joe Rogan: “It’s terrifying that they’re calling it gender-affirming care when it’s really childhood mutilation… before you have the chance to figure out what permanent means.” https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1961111539261607953 JD Vance torches Jen Psaki for ‘weird left wing’ attack on PRAYER after Minneapolis school shooting – ‘Why do you feel the need to attack other people for praying when kids were just killed praying?’ he asked… ‘Of all the weird left wing culture wars in the last few years, this is by far the most bizarre,’ Vance wrote in response to Psaki. ‘What are you even talking about?’… ‘It is shocking to me that so many left wing politicians attack the idea of prayer in response to a tragedy,’ Vance wrote. ‘Literally no one thinks prayer is a substitute for action. We pray because our hearts are broken and we believe that God is listening… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15043457/jd-vance-prayer-msnbc-jen-psaki.html VP Vance: “If you are a politician or you’re a media commentator and two beautiful babies just got murdered while praying, and your politics force you to condemn prayer in response to it, you ought to get new politics because something very wrong has gone on inside your soul.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1961161979868962889 @jimmyfailla: I wanna live in a world where Democrats get madder at the people shooting than the people praying. @realDonaldTrump: Governor Pritzker had 6 murders in Chicago this weekend. 20 people were shot. But he doesn’t want to ask me for help. Can this be possible? The people are desperate for me to STOP THE CRIME, something the Democrats aren’t capable of doing. STAY TUNED!!! President DJT @TrumpWarRoom: @karolineleavitt drops major truth bombs highlighting Chicago’s crime crisis: For 13 consecutive years Chicago has had the most murders of any US cities Out of Chicago’s 147,899 reported crimes this year there have only been arrests in 16% of them There have been more illegal guns recovered in Chicago than in LA and NYC combined https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1961121224190562710 Chicago crime stats are falling because new Cook County States Attorney Eileen Burke has been more aggressive in prosecuting violent crimes. Chicago Mayor Johnson and Gov. Pritzker have done zero. https://abc7chicago.com/post/eileen-oneill-burke-sworn-cook-county-states-attorney-monday-replacing-kim-foxx/15613004/ @Austin__Berg: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson responds to critics of his push for more debt at Chicago Public Schools, the largest municipal junk bond issuer in the country. “You put a Black man in charge of a city and all of a sudden everybody wants to be an accountant.”… https://x.com/Austin__Berg/status/1961085702906478726 @ABC10: Newsom deploys ‘crime suppression’ teams statewide while mocking Trump’s threats https://x.com/ABC10/status/1961148291933979062 @Breaking911: In his latest attempt to be like President Trump, Calif. Gov. Newsom announces he’s deploying the highway patrol to address crime surge. https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1961133511659647026 The AP poll that showed 99% of Americans believe crime is a problem in big (blue) cities (18% minor problem, 81% major problem, 1% no problem) unnerved Newsome. Milley crafted Biden Admin’s fiction that Afghanistan fell in just ‘eleven days’ Once the Taliban had taken over Afghanistan, the Biden Administration settled on a false narrative that the collapse of Afghanistan had occurred in just eleven days, and thus could not have been predicted. Milley led the charge in promoting it, despite experts and military personnel on the ground in Afghanistan saying otherwise… Many in the Biden Administration — President Biden himself, then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and others — joined Milley in pushing the “eleven days” claim, although General Austin “Scottie” Miller, the final commander of NATO’s Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, was among those who later admitted that Afghanistan had not collapsed in just eleven days, but rather over months… https://justthenews.com/government/security/milley-led-pushing-biden-admin-fiction-afghanistan-fell-just-eleven-days | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
THE FUN CONTINUES:
A 3rd Property!? Pulte Drops New Criminal Referral On Lisa Cook As Mortgage Scandal Widens
Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 – 10:21 PM
(Update: 2215ET): A third property?
On Thursday night, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte dropped a second criminal referral against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook based on evidence that she entered into a 15-year mortgage on a third property which she listed as her “Second Home.”
On an ethics form signed with the government, however, Cook noted it as an “investment/rental property.”
Why is this bad and not simply a ‘clerical error’? As Pulte notes, “Representing the property as a second home may have allowed Cook to secure a lower “Second Home” mortgage down payment and rates, as investment properties typically carry higher down payments and higher rates due to increased risk.”
This new criminal referral follows an initial referral Pulte made after Cook listed two properties as her ‘primary residence’ in 2021 – ostensibly reaping manifold benefits on tax treatment and interest rates, which Cook hasn’t denied.
About that Clerical Error…
Earlier Thursday, Cook filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration after President Donald Trump fired her on Monday ‘for cause.’ Among the excuses contained in the lawsuit for listing two properties as her primary residence was a possible clerical error.
Except, Cook described herself in her 2023 nomination hearing as having “significant experience in banking and finance, as is evidenced by my service on the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and of a Community Development Financial Institution in Michigan, in addition to my employment at an investment bank and a large commercial bank.”
So she claims to be a banking expert, while anyone in the industry who’s done all the mandatory mind-numbing ‘continuing education’ has had these exact types of scenarios pounded into their heads ad nauseam, for years.
In short:
end
Trump DOJ Files Blistering Response To Lisa Cook Lawsuit
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 09:12 AM
The Justice Department has filed a response to Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s lawsuit over her Monday firing – claiming that the President has “broad discretion to remove a Governor for “cause” over allegations of mortgage fraud (with a third property disclosed by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte last night), and that Cook is “highly unlikely to prevail on the merits.”
The Federal Reserve Act (FRA) empowers the President of the United States to appoint (by and with the advice and consent of the Senate) the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 12 U.S.C. § 241. Those Governors serve for fixed terms, “unless sooner removed for cause by the President.” Id. § 242. The statute thus expressly contemplates that, even setting aside his Article II authority over principal officers, the President retains broad discretion to remove a Governor for “cause.”
According to the DOJ, “Dr. Cook is highly unlikely to prevail on the merits. Removal for “cause” is a capacious standard, and one Congress has vested in the discretion of the President. Even if it were subject to any judicial review—and over a century of caselaw suggests it is not—that review would have to be highly deferential, lest it intrude into the President’s constitutional authority over principal officers.”
To wit, “And under any standard, making facially contradictory statements in financial documents – whether a criminal burden of proof could be sustained or not – is more than sufficient ground for removing a senior financial regulator from office.”
In response to Cook’s claims that she was ‘deprived of notice’ and an opportunity to respond to the President’s concern over allegations of mortgage fraud, the DOJ notes that “no court has ever extended those due-process protections for employees to principal officers of the United States. Nor does the FRA purport to do so. In any case, the President gave Dr. Cook notice when he publicized the FHFA referral on August 20.”
The DOJ also notes that Cook has no explanation for the allegations.
Incredibly, Dr. Cook even now hazards no explanation for her conduct and points to nothing she would say or prove in any “hearing” that would conceivably alter the President’s determination that the perception of financial misconduct alone is intolerable in this role. Under these circumstances, there is certainly no equitable basis for a reinstatement injunction.
Addressing Cook’s request for an injunction on her filing, the response asserts that recent decisions from the Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit leave no doubt that reinstatement injunctions are improper.
Developing…
See below: zerohedge
END
Friday Morning Fireworks Ensue During Cook Vs. Trump Courtroom Showdown
Update (1220ET): It was fireworks in federal court Friday morning as lawyers for Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook squared off against the Trump administration after Trump fired her on Monday over mortgage malarkey.
Cook (who was busted in 2024 for plagiarism and only got her job because Kamala Harris was the tiebreaker vote during her confirmation) responded by filing a lawsuit – asking a judge to issue a temporary restraining order (TRO) which would allow her to keep her job, for now.
The drama kicked off at 9:30 a.m. before U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb, where Cook’s lawyer accused the White House of mounting a politically motivated power grab over claims of mortgage fraud as cover to oust Cook and stack the Fed with Trump loyalists.
“This is nothing more than a smear campaign,” insisted Abbe Lowell, Cook’s attorney. “Cause for the president means she won’t go along with the interest rate drop.”
The courtroom drama unfolded amid the backdrop of Federal Housing Finance Authority Chief Bill Pulte having dropped a Thursday night bombshell: a second “criminal referral” accusing Cook of “misrepresentations” about properties she owns – specifically that she claimed a second residence as an investment property, which follows Pulte’s initial criminal referral over Cook simultaneously claiming two properties as her ‘primary residence.’
Lowell torched the move as a desperate stunt:
“Nothing in these vague, unsubstantiated allegations has any relevance to Gov. Cook’s role at the Federal Reserve, and they in no way justify her removal from the Board.”
Apparently actual documents bearing Cook’s signature, which she hasn’t refuted, are now ‘unsubstantiated.’ What’s more, while Cook has denied any wrongdoing, she has yet to publicly explain her defense.
What’s Next?
Judge Cobb set an expedited briefing schedule, but stopped short of ruling on Cook’s TRO request Friday. A decision could come within days.
end
Trump Cancels Extended Secret Service Detail For Kamala Harris Before Her Book Tour
Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – 08:55 AM
President Donald Trump terminated the Secret Service protection of former Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday, according to a new report.
By law, vice presidents receive six months of protection after leaving office, which for Harris ended on July 21. However, her protection was extended for an additional year by former President Joe Biden. Trump’s decision comes just weeks before the failed leftist politician embarks on a tour to promote her new book.
“You are hereby authorized to discontinue any security-related procedures previously authorized by Executive Memorandum, beyond those required by law, for the following individual, effective September 1, 2025: Former Vice President Kamala D. Harris,” according to a letter sent from the Trump administration to Harris.
The letter, titled “Memorandum for the Secretary of Homeland Security,” and dated Thursday, was first obtained by CNN, and the report was published Friday morning.
Under federal law, specifically the Former Vice President Protection Act of 2008, it established that a former vice president, their spouse, and any children under 16 are entitled to up to six months of Secret Service protection after they leave office. That date for Harris concluded on July 21.
After the initial six-month period, the Secretary of Homeland Security has the authority to temporarily extend protection if deemed necessary due to credible threats or other conditions.
As for the Trump administration’s legal authority in this matter, it appears sound, since a memorandum authorizing DHS and the Secret Service to extend coverage beyond the statutory six months is not a permanent legal right. The only White House role entitled to lifetime protection under the law is that of the president.
The move comes just weeks before the failed leftist candidate embarks on a nationwide book tour to promote “107 Days,” a behind-the-scenes look at the shortest presidential campaign in history.
Recall that Democratic leadership ousted Biden and replaced the boomer president with Harris for the presidential run, effectively disenfranchising voters.
As for Harris’ book tour, it appears Trump has saved taxpayers tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, by ending protection for the failed leftist candidate as she promotes her book about life on the campaign trail.
Does history remember losers? The answer is no.
END
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
HAVE A SAVE HOLIDAY, LABOUR DAY WEEKEND
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