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FROM MY no 4 SON STEPHEN //THROUGH AI: ENJOY
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 4
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 2
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 6
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 2
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 6 2
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1
880 C CITIGROUP 3
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 13 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 1300 OZ or 0.0404 TONNES
total notices so far: 2597 contracts for 259,700 OR 8.0777 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 723 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.615 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9993 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 49.915 million oz
WHAT A BUNCH OF CRAP!!
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 11.550 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 55.200 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S EX. FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.00933 TONNES PLUS 0. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 8.6314//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT REDUCES TO = 18.5536 TONNES!!
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 14.7455 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A TINY 91 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,277 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 395 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 395 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1075 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 91 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 395 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 304 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.53 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.520 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.53 GAIN IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 47.68 PTS OR 1.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 277.11 PTS OR 1.09%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 644.38 PTS OR 1.53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.90%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1398 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1385/ Oil DOWN TO 63.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1398 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1385 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1808 CONTRACTS TO 494,776 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $43.20 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2000). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND OUR MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION FINALIZED WITH //FRIDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3808 CONTRACTS (OR 11.844 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 OZ (0 TONNES).
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 2775 CONTRACTS OR 277,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES FOR 2725 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 272,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//FINAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5477 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1420 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST MONTH’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK FOR JULY. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE WITH MONTH END AUGUST SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED 5 WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY FOR AUGUST AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME FAILED WITH RAIDS FINALIZATION ON AUGUST OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.00933 TONNES EX.FOR RISK TRANSFER TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 8.6314 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING REDUCES TO 18.5536 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 238 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.00933 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON AND 8.6314 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
THAT IS;
A) 0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY//TOTAL FOR MONTH: 8.6314 TONNES
B) 0.00933 TONNES TODAY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON
TOTALS: 18.5536 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2000 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2000 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2000 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1420 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING HUGE GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
2) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES30
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER 2 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 8.6314 TONNES.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT: 9.9222 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER) + 0 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY_//TOTAL FOR MONTH = 8.6314//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 18.5536 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $43.20./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH LAST WEEK’S TRADING!! THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THE CROOKS COULD NOT MUSTER A RAID ON OPTIONS EXPIRY LONDON/OTC AUGUST TRADING. THEY ARE ATTEMPTING A RAID TODAY ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
DETAIL SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH SEPTEMBER TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH 3 ISSUANCES
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE: 3
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: 7 ISSUED,
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 44.696 TONNES, THE HIGHEST MONTHLY EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!!!!!!
THUS 107.5117 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYS TRANSFERS) + 44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: 2 ISSUED:
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT OUR TWO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK EQUATES TO 2725 CONTRACTS FOR 272,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A DOOZY FOR SEPT DELIVERIES AS EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE BIS (LOANED TO THE FRBNY) WANTS ITS GOLD BACK+ THE MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING BY OTHER CENTRAL BANKS
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 11.844 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.00933 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 8.6314 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL FOR MONTH (TODAY’S EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE = 0 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK) AND THUS NEW TOTALS EX FOR RISK MONTH = 8.6310//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT REDUCES TO: 18.5536 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $43.20
WE HAD 1669 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3808 CONTRACTS OR 380,800 0Z (11.844 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 243,321 contracts// fair//
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
SEPT CONTRACT MONTH
SEPT 4 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 13 notice(s) 1300 OZ 0.0404 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 593 contracts 59300 OZ 1.8444 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2597 notices 259,700 oz 8.0777 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entries
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entries
ADJUSTMENTs 2
both dealer to customer accts:
a) Brinks dealer account to customer; 3,086.496 oz
b) JPMorgan: dealer to customer account; 8,061.491 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 606 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 46 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 43 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE LOST 3 CONTRACTS OR 300 OZ ENTERTAINED A EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.00933 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD OUR INITIAL 2.333 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED UNDER EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR TO YESTERDAY’S 6.299 TONNES/NEW EX FOR RISK = 8.63147//THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING REDUCES TO 18.5536 TONNES
OCTOBER LOST 115 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 61,763
NOVEMBER LOST 29 CONTRACTS UP TO 2663 CONTRACTS.
We had 13 contracts filed for today representing 1300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 8 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 13 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2597 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 606 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz per contract) equals 319,000 OZ OR 9.9222 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EX FOR RISK OF 8.632 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING REDUCES TO 18.5536 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (2597 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (606 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz) which equals 319,000 OZ OR 9.9222 TONNES PLUS 8.632 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.5536 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 18.5536 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,049,534.159 oz 63.756 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,957,797.857 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,304,588.071 or 662.662 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,653,209.786 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,255,054 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 598.91 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 4 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries: i) Out of Delaware: 3898.140 oz ii) Out of HSBC 80,325.460 oz total withdrawal 84,223.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex 1135,107.020 oz total deposit1135,107.02 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 294,847.600 oz total deposit 294,877.600 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 723 CONTRACT(S) (3.615 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1057 contracts (5.285 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 9983 Contracts (49.915 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
i) Into Stonex 1135,107.020 oz
total deposit1135,107.02 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 294,847.600 oz
total deposit 294,877.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries:
i) Out of Delaware: 3898.140 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 80,325.460 oz
total withdrawal 84,223.600 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 3
1dealer to customer accts:
a) Brinks dealer account to customer; 112,000.620 oz
next two: customer to dealer
b) CNT: customer account to dealer;; 1,400,717.730 oz
c) Manfra: 183,891.480 oz//customer to dealer.
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.234 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 517.413 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 1780 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 847 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 975 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 128 CONTRACT OR 1.024 MILLION OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX ADVANCES TO 55.200 MILLION OZ.
STANDING FOR SILVER: 55.200 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER GAINED 33 CONTRACTS TO 2501
NOVEMBER GAINED 195 CONTRACTS UP TO 1231.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:723 or 3.615 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 69,090 strong//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9983 X5,000 oz = 49.915 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (1780) AND the number of notices served upon today (723 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (9983) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(1780) minus number of notices served upon today (723)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 55.200 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 55.200 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195.234 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/517.413 million. 40.61%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 984.26 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.308 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
Which Housing Domino Will Fall First?
Boomers, Airbnb, or private equity…or all three?
| John RubinoSep 4 |
At least three big groups of homeowners have the potential to crash the US housing market. And with home prices at unaffordable levels and mortgage rates above 6%, it’s now a question of when, not if, this market tanks. But it’s still fun to speculate about which domino will be first to fall?
Here are three likely suspects:
Aging Boomers
I live in a neighborhood that’s mostly retirees in pricy houses. And a couple of things are happening:
- Many of our neighbors are sick, some seriously, which makes statistical sense. If a married couple is in their 70s, the odds that one of them is dealing with health issues are pretty high. In just the past year, several of them have died, and in every case, the surviving spouse — in no shape to manage a big house on a high-maintenance lot — has immediately put it on the market.
- Other neighbors are moving to be closer to their grandchildren. One couple, who have become good friends and will be sorely missed, just made an offer on a Florida house for that reason. If the offer is accepted, they’ll immediately list their current house for sale.
Basic math says that as Boomers age, the above trends will intensify. Who will buy the Boomers’ 30 or so million houses? Well, at today’s prices, no one, obviously. The average Millennial or Gen Z buyer can’t come close to affording the required mortgage.
Meanwhile, the kids and grandkids who inherit Boomer McMansions frequently can’t keep them. Another personal aside: A friend just died, leaving her house in Washington state to her daughter, who lives in Alaska. The daughter and her husband have just remodeled their existing home, leaving them with no money for upkeep on an inherited house in another state. Faced with this new cash drain, they’re considering listing the house immediately.
Conclusion: Boomers are becoming a source of massive new housing inventory, and will continue thus for at least another decade.
Failed Airbnb entrepreneurs
Once upon a time, Airbnb was about making housing part of the “sharing economy” by allowing regular people to monetize spare rooms or RVs or even backyard tents by renting them to strangers. (Yes, that sounds even creepier than ride sharing.)
It worked, at first. Tenants got cheap, quirky, and convenient rentals while owners got small but welcome bits of extra cash.
One more personal aside: My first Airbnb experience was maybe a decade ago, when I rented an RV in Arizona for a couple of nights. The owners lived in a neighboring RV and invited me over for dinner. We had a good time, and I left a 5-star review. Smooth and easy.
But now, the typical Airbnb rental is an upscale, expensive, and highly complicated proposition, with requirements that the tenant clean up before leaving and multiple fees that frequently raise the cost to as much or more than nearby hotels.
Adding to the creepy vibe, it has recently been discovered that some Airbnb hosts have wired cameras into their units to spy on tenants. Here’s a video explaining how to detect those cameras:
Last but not least, a typical Airbnb entrepreneur now owns multiple properties and only interacts with tenants when there’s a problem. The algorithm handles everything else.
The result: A growing number of travelers are asking Why bother with the complexities and uncertainties of an Airbnb when a hotel costs the same and doesn’t require you to clean up after yourself?
So…an inferior — or at least unpredictable — product peddled by amateurs who are leveraged to the hilt and have never weathered a serious downturn. A bust sounds pretty much guaranteed. But is it imminent? Let’s see what’s happening now:
Soaring inventory. Short-term rentals became a get-rich-quick scheme for inexperienced people who had access to cheap financing in the early 2020s. And now these folks have over 2 million units, many of which are not generating positive cash flow:
One of the biggest challenges currently facing the short-term rental market is market saturation. As the Airbnb platform gained popularity, an influx of new property owners and investors rushed to list their homes and apartments. Cities like Dallas saw more than 6,000 new Airbnb listings added since 2020, far outpacing local demand. This oversupply has created intense competition among property managers, driving down nightly rates and occupancy in many areas. What once looked like easy profit has become a struggle for visibility and pricing power in an increasingly crowded STR market.
The following video predicts massive forced selling by Airbnb landlords:
Private Equity “Landlords”
After the 2008 housing bust, the only people with access to cheap credit were hedge funds and private equity firms. They used some of this capital to buy up houses — sometimes entire neighborhoods — and converted them to rentals, raising rents and scrimping on upkeep in the face of strong demand from people who had no choice but to rent.
What more needs to be said? Obviously, Wall Street sharks are terrible landlords, and — given their propensity to pile into and then back out of bubble assets — they’re setting the housing market up for a crash.
But, you might ask, aren’t these guys the world’s most intelligent people? Well…high IQs, yes, but judgement, no. Look at the chart for the 1990s tech stock bubble for a view of housing’s future. Remember that in 1999, Wall Street’s geniuses were all-in on the dot-com stocks:
Which Goes First?
This is a tough one, because all three of these potential dominoes are teetering as this is written. Boomers are aging, Airbnb landlords are hemorrhaging cash, and private equity “landlords” are in waaayyy over their heads. So relying on personal experience, I’m going to rank them in this order: Airbnb landlords first, Boomers second, and private equity as the crescendo that blows up the banks along with housing. Have fun, and keep stacking.
MARKET EAR…………………
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
US destroys her hegemony
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathering in Tianjin hosting 23 world leaders and more at the military parade in Beijing shows that the world is ignoring autarkic America.
| Alasdair MacleodSep 4∙Paid |
Ever since the US decided that China was a threat to its role as the world’s policeman and financier, it has been on the back foot. Provocation failed in its objective every time, as the Chinese leadership always took the long view and failed to react. It had analysed US tactics of dollar debt pump-and-dump, concluding rightly or wrongly that it could be extended to China. Sensibly, China refused to borrow dollars, accumulating them instead, implying it could be China doing the pump-and-dump by selling US treasuries and driving up bond yields.
Then there is the history of US attempts at regime change, usually successful. The crude overthrow of leaders by covert CIA actions was not possible in China’s case. Instead, China was cast out as a pariah state because of its maltreatment of Uigurs. The attempts to curtail Chinese technology by casting back door spying aspersions followed, along with the detention of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s CFO in Canada on US instructions. The list of provocations which failed in their intent is extensive.
Every time, China’s view of American interference was why interrupt an enemy when it defeats its own objectives by making all the mistakes?
Of course, US anti-Chinese propaganda has been imprinted on western minds, which are pigheadedly unaware of China’s role in assembling a global trade force wholly independent from the US and its dollar. Mainstream media reporting of the major gathering in Tianjin is dismissive, which is an egregious error.
Emerging nations, mostly sick of the Americans and Europeans and less fearful of the consequences are flocking to join the joint Chinese and Russian sphere of influence. The combination of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which is predominantly Asian mainland, and BRICS which is the rest of the world is growing rapidly. President Trump’s MAGA autarkicism and tariff policies have triggered a flood of nations looking to join what is rapidly becoming the most powerful economic force on earth.
Trump’s abusive threat against India for processing Russian oil backfired badly. In the past India would have rushed to mollify the US. Instead, it is said that when Trump tried to climb down, Modi refused to take his ‘phone calls and travelled to Tianjin where he has been seen in close conversation with Putin and Xi despite the territorial dispute with China, and China’s supply of weapons to Pakistan.
At the centre of it all is these three nations, members of both SCO and BRICS. India, China, and Russia combined represents 3 billion souls or 37% of the world’s population. That they will work closely together was one of the messages from Tianjin.
It will surprise readers to learn that Wednesday’s military parade in Beijing was also attended by some key western allies. These included Kim Min-seok, South Korea’s prime minister, Prabowo Subianto, Indonesian president, Shebaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, Robert Fico, Slovak prime minister, Daniel Andrews former premier of Victoria Australia, John Key, New Zealand former prime minister, and Helen Clark also a former New Zealand prime minister.
Trading without the dollar
The primary objective of the SCO and BRICS is for member nations to do away with the dollar in trade finance, commodity pricing, and capital investment. It is likely that the SCO’s proposed development bank will have a central role in replacing national debts denominated in dollars with Chinese yuan, allowing them to escape dollar hegemony. It will supplement the BRICS development bank in Shanghai.
National members of the SCO and BRICS amount to over 70% of the world’s population. As these plans mature, the dollar’s reserve status will be replaced by the yuan, leading to a winding down of foreign dollar balances, currently estimated by the US Treasury to total about $40 trillion, about one-third more than the US’s entire GDP.
This estimate doesn’t include offshore dollar balances estimated some time ago by the Bank for International Settlements to be close to a further $90 trillion principally facilitating foreign exchange transactions between other currencies and to a lesser extent the eurodollar market.
The negative implications for the dollar will not be lost on China’s leadership. It is a process which will be sped up by BRICS members and potential members replacing their dollar obligations with yuan. They also see the dollar heading towards a crisis on US economic policy alone. The irony is that the US pump-and-dump operation used against other nations is now playing out against America itself, with treasury yields rising and inevitably leading to a financial and credit crisis, with or without a push from China.
For a long time, China has taken the view that the entire fiat currency system has a limited life: use it while you can but protect yourself against its ultimate failure. We know that China and its citizens have used a significant portion of their post-Mao wealth to accumulate gold bullion following legislation introduced specifically towards that end in 1983. In the 42 years since, unwanted bullion in the west has migrated into China and almost none has been allowed out.
China understands the difference between fiat credit and monetary gold, and that currencies are merely a promise of final settlement which no issuer today is prepared to honour. She knows that in a post-dollar world that promise must return, and China can provide that assurance by backing the yuan with some guarantee of convertibility. To this end, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has said it will open vaults in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, presumably to be followed by others, which will accept gold exchangeable for yuan.
A post-fiat world is emerging. It will be central to trade and finance for a generally underdeveloped world, rapidly embracing communications and Chinese commercial technology which is now superior to anything in America and in her spheres of influence.
Conclusion
It appears that the SCO and BRICS are on the verge of a further leap forward, facilitated by the continuing failures of US containment strategies and the unintended consequences of President Trump’s MAGA policies and tariff disruptions. The following has emerged:
· The establishment of an SCO bank alongside the BRICS bank in Shanghai will assist members to replace capital commitments in dollars with yuan.
· We know that other nations are looking to join BRICS, and the SCO itself will expand as associates and dialog partners move towards full status. The surprise is that while Australia and New Zealand are not officially interested, they have sent unofficial representatives to the Beijing military parade. Fico from Slovakia alerts us that some of the East Europeans are potentially interested.
· Plans to ensure that gold is central to the entire SCO/BRICS payments system as and when it will be necessary are materialising before our eyes.
· The dollar faces an unwinding of its central position to the world economy which is likely to be more rapid that generally expected.
None of this is reflected in foreign exchange markets yet. But as the US debt trap is sprung, it will be an additional factor accelerating the fiat dollar’s demise.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
Central banks are urged to pool dollar reserves as Fed help is doubted
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-09-03 17:07 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi
Reuters
Wednesday, September 3, 2025
FRANKFURT, Germany — The European Central Bank and its peers around the world should pool their reserves for U.S. dollar liquidity as Federal Reserve help cannot be guaranteed given President Donald Trump’s attacks, the head of an influential think tank said.
Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics told an ECB conference today it should not be taken for granted that a politicised Fed would lend dollars to foreign central banks in a crisis, as it did a few times since the 2007-2008 financial meltdown.
He recommended that the ECB and its peers outside the United States pool their reserves in dollars to provide emergency liquidity to domestic banks if needed. This option has been raised by European central bankers behind closed doors. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
World Gold Council concocting another form of disembodied gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-09-03 09:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
London’s Bullion Market to Trial Digital Gold
By Leslie Hook
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, September 3, 2025
The World Gold Council is seeking to launch a digital form of gold, a move that could revolutionise London’s $900 billion physical market for the precious metal by creating a new way to trade, settle, and collateralise bullion.
This new format would create the ability to “pass gold digitally around the gold ecosystem, as collateral, for the first time,” said David Tait, chief executive of the World Gold Council, an industry body representing gold miners, in an interview with the Financial Times.
While many investors value gold precisely because of its physical nature and its lack of counterparty risk, seeing it as a haven asset, Tait argues that bullion must be digitised to broaden its market reach.
“We are trying to standardise that digital layer of gold, such that the various financial products used in other markets can be used in the gold market going forward,” said Tait, a former banker. “My goal is that many asset managers around the world will suddenly look at it differently,” he added. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Jesse Colombo: Gold and silver officially confirm their breakouts
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-09-02 19:51 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jesse Colombo
The Bubble Bubble Report
Tuesday, September 2, 2025
Today is a very exciting day because gold and silver have both officially broken out, giving the green light for powerful rallies into year-end. This is the scenario I’ve been long anticipating as summer wrapped up and Wall Street returned from vacation mode.
In my last update on Sunday, I explained that gold and silver were beginning to break out, but I was waiting for additional confirmation such as strong Comex futures volume and breakouts across all major currencies.
That had not happened yet because Friday was right before the three-day Labor Day weekend, when trading volume was subdued, so I wanted to be cautious and wait for follow-through this week. And today, that follow-through arrived in a big way. In this update, I will show you where gold, silver, and the miners stand now, along with my outlook going forward. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
China advances development bank to help 10 Eurasian countries curb U.S. dollar risks
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-09-02 07:05 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ralph Jennings
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Tuesday, September 2, 2025
A strong push on Monday to create a development bank serving 10 Eurasian countries, including China, would help insulate the group from increasingly risky U.S. dollar-dominated trade while accelerating key infrastructure work, according to analysts.
Such a concessional lender — part of an idea that has long been put on hold — would serve China, Russia, India, and seven other nations that have worked together since 2001 as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
President Xi Jinping said at a summit of the organisation’s leaders in Tianjin on Monday that the bank “should be established as soon as possible to provide stronger support for the security and economic cooperation of member states,” Xinhua reported.
And an official statement later released by Xinhua in the evening said the SCO had “decided to establish a development bank and accelerate consultations on a series of issues related to the financial institution’s operation.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
India’s central bank edges away from U.S. Treasuries toward gold
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-09-02 06:58 Section: Daily Dispatches
From the Times of India, Mumbai
Monday, September 1, 2025
U.S. Treasury bills seem to be losing favour, with the Reserve Bank of India stepping up gold holdings to increase India’s foreign exchange reserves.
India’s central bank has shown a preference for increasing gold reserves instead of U.S. Treasury bills to strengthen its foreign exchange holdings, according to recent data from the U.S. Department of Treasury and RBI. This is part of a broader global shift towards diversifying national reserves beyond dollar-based assets.
The quantity of gold within foreign exchange reserves reached 879.98 metric tonnes as of June 27, 2025, rising from 840.76 metric tonnes recorded on June 28, 2024.
According to an Economic Times report, data reveals a decline in India’s U.S. T-bill investments in June compared to the previous year, whilst the country’s gold reserves increased during this
period. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 238
5. COMMODITY REPORT GOLD
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 47.68 PTS OR 1.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 277.11 PTS OR 1.09%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 644.38 PTS OR 1.53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.90%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1398 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1385/ Oil DOWN TO 63.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1398 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1385 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1398
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1386
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 277.11 PTS OR 1.09%
2. Nikkei closed UP 644.38 PTS OR 1.53%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.21 EURO FALLS TO 1.1651 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.602//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.37…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.262 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7198 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.614 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.321
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.452
3j Gold at $3540.15 Silver at: 40.89 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 36 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.61
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.37/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.602% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.262 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8050 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9351 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.204 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.890 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.608 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.17
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7330 DOWN 2 PTS ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.582 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.394 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.871 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Rise As Global Bond Rout Fizzles
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 08:21 AM
US equity futures are higher, extending yesterday’s gains, while the global bond rout is put on hold for the time being as traders boost wagers on a faster pace of US interest-rate cuts ahead of Friday’s pivotal jobs report. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher, pointing to a back-to-back advance, and Nasdaq futures gain 0.25%, with Mag 7s mostly higher premarket as AMZN and TSLA add 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Advances were stronger in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 strengthened 0.6% and French bonds led gains across the board. Treasuries extended gains, with the yield on 10-year notes falling two basis points to 4.19% while the USD is higher. Commodities are mostly lower; oil -1.2%; gold -0.6%. Overnight, not a lot of major headlines in the US as investors are waiting for the 2x major catalysts this week (Broadcom earnings today after the close, and NFP tomorrow). Today we get the ADP Employment report at 8:15am ET (68k survey vs 104k prevsious) and ISM Services at 10am ET today (50.9 survey vs. 50.1 prior).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Amazon +1.6%, Tesla +1.1%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta +1.8%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.7%).
- American Eagle (AEO) gains 26% after the clothing retailer reported better-than-expected 2Q revenue, boosted by demand following its Sydney Sweeney ad campaign.
- C3.ai (AI) slumps 13% after the software company forecast revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. It also named Stephen Ehikian as its new CEO, replacing founder Tom Siebel, who will remain executive chairman.
- Caleres (CAL) falls 7% after the footwear retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Ciena (CIEN) climbs 11% after the maker of equipment used by telecom companies reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Credo Technology (CRDO) is up 11% after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Figma (FIG) falls 15% after the software design company forecast annual sales that failed to impress Wall Street’s lofty expectations. This was the company’s first report since it went public in late July.
- GitLab (GTLB) is down 7% after the software company gave an outlook for third-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected. It also said that Brian Robins will step down as chief financial officer.
- HP Enterprise (HPE) is up 3% even as the company expects narrower profit margins as it enters the next leg of AI-driven demand. Bloomberg Intelligence says that with server execution issues behind it, the company should get free cash flow back on track in fiscal 2026.
- PagerDuty (PD) falls 3.6% after the cloud computing company trimmed the top end of its 2026 revenue guidance range. The company’s third quarter adjusted EPS view came in slightly lower than the consensus estimate.
- Salesforce (CRM) is down 7% after the software company gave an outlook that was seen as underwhelming.
- T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) rises 8% as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will invest as much as $1 billion in the company and team up with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail investors.
Calm is returning to markets after days of shifts in stocks and bonds that were driven by concerns over stretched valuations and government finances. As data continue to highlight softness in the labor market, swaps show traders are nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut this month and broadly split on the likelihood of another in October.
Until Wednesday, most traders saw a second cut only by December.
“September’s cut is a given but we don’t have any strong convictions going forward,” said Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “As for equities, we’re on the lookout for opportunities and we would look for a temporary weakness to reinforce our positions.”
Economists project about 75,000 jobs were added in August, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey, while the jobless rate is seen at 4.3%. Four straight months of sub-100,000 payrolls growth would mark the weakest such stretch since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Ahead of Friday’s data, the ADP Research report on Thursday showed even slower private payroll growth in August, with jobs rising just 54K, below the 68K expectation, and down from 106K the previous month. Weekly initial jobless claims are seen little changed from the week before.
In separate figures, hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record and intended job cuts mounted, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“I think at this point, it’s clear that the labor market is slightly cooling down,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. “The market is now pricing a 97% chance of the Fed cut. What could change that potentially is if we have very strong inflation data, but we’re not seeing that yet.”
Elsewhere, Wall Street strategists say investors are increasingly uneasy about the Fed’s independence as President Donald Trump pressures the central bank for rate cuts and seeks greater influence over its leadership. Market positioning across stocks, bonds and gold indicates investors are bracing for a potential pickup in inflation following Trump’s nomination of close adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed and his move to oust Governor Lisa Cook, JPMorgan strategists said. Meanwhile, Goldman analysts warned that mounting doubts over US institutional credibility pose “significant tail risks,” including the risk of a surge in the price of gold… supposedly much more than the one already observed.
In Europe the Stoxx 600 strengthened 0.4%, rising for a second day as investors welcomed a further pullback in longer-dated European government bond yields. Retail and media stocks are outperforming while the travel and leisure sector is one of the few decliners as budget airlines including EasyJet and Ryanair drop after a profit warning from Jet2. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- Genus shares jump as much as 29% after the animal genetics specialist reported adjusted pretax profit for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Currys shares rise as much as 24% after the electrical retailer reported a strong update.
- SMA Solar rallies as much as 5.7% as Jefferies upgrades to hold following the significant correction in the German solar-energy equipment maker’s shares after it delivered a profit warning this week.
- Asseco Poland surges as much as 7.8% after the IT company’s second-quarter profit beat estimates on growing demand for new software solutions to Poland’s public sector, as well as its international expansion.
- Grafton rises as much as 5.8% as the building material supplier’s first-half profit surpasses analysts’ estimates and it confirms a recovery in current trading.
- Sanofi shares drop as much as 10% after an experimental drug for atopic dermatitis disappointed investors in a late-stage trial.
- Saab shares drop as much as 6.7% as Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of the Swedish defense company with an underweight rating, cautious of the market’s elevated expectations at peak multiples. Kongsberg declines as much as 3% on an equal-weight initiation.
- Jet2 shares slump as much as 25% after the budget travel firm said it expects full-year Ebit to come in at the lower end of the consensus range.
- Lisi shares fall as much as 14% after Peugeot Invest sold 2.7 million shares in the aircraft parts maker for €39/share, for a total amount of approximately €105 million, according to a statement.
- CVC Capital falls as much as 5% after the private markets firm reported an adjusted Ebitda for the first half-year that slightly missed the average analyst estimate.
- D’Ieteren drops as much as 8% after the automobile distributor delivered first-half results that disappointed analysts.
Earlier in the session, in Asia, a selloff in Chinese stocks deepened on a Bloomberg report that regulators may move to cool a rally that has added $1.2 trillion since August. Still, Asian stocks were set to snap a two-day losing streak, led by financials, as investors returned to risk assets after US jobs data boosted Fed rate-cut bets. Chinese benchmarks declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained rose 0.2%, supported by Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. SoftBank Group and Sony Group were also among key advancers. Japan led regional gains, with benchmarks in South Korea and India also moving higher. In China, stocks plunged after Bloomberg reported that regulators are muling cooling measures for the market on concerns over the speed of the recent rally. The country has also started imposing duties on additional US optical fiber imports after a months-long investigation. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and the mainland dropped more than 1%. Meanwhile, shares in India got a lift after policymakers announced a range of consumption tax cuts to boost local demand.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. The Norwegian krone leads declines among G-10 peers against the greenback, falling 0.6%. The Swiss franc falls 0.1% with little reaction seen after headline CPI matched expectations.
In rates, treasury futures hold small gains in early US session, with yields richer by 2bp-3bp, following similar price action in European bonds. Long-end gilts outperform, flattening the UK yield curve. Economic data calendar provides main focal points of US session, including ADP employment and ISM services index. US 10-year, about 2bp richer on the day near session low, slightly underperforms bunds and gilts in the sector; curve spreads are narrowly mixed, broadly within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels. German, French and UK 30-year borrowing costs are down some 5 bps each. Treasuries also gain, with the US 30-year yields down 2 bps to 4.88%.
In commodities, spot gold drops $20. Oil prices fall for a second day, with WTI down 1.2% to $63.20 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 1.2%.
Today’s US economic data slate includes August Challenger job cuts (7:30am), August ADP employment change (8:15am), 2Q final nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, weekly jobless claims and July trade balance (8:30am), August final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and August ISM services index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes New York Fed’s Williams (12:05pm) and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (7pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
- DAX +0.5%
- CAC 40 -0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.2%
- VIX -0.1 points at 16.29
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1206.84
- euro -0.1% at $1.1645
- WTI crude -1.1% at $63.26/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US House Republicans are reportedly less than eager to extend Obamacare subsidies which expire at the end of the year, a GOP aide cited said an extension is “Incredibly unpopular within the conference, expensive, bad policy, etc.”: Punchbowl
- A federal judge barred the Trump administration from unilaterally cutting roughly $12 billion in foreign aid that Congress approved and is poised to expire by the end of September. BBG
- US Republicans are looking into and/or speaking out against the administration’s plan to use the CHIPS Act to take a stake in Intel (INTC). Senator Rounds is looking into its legality while Young is said to be sceptical: Punchbowl;
- China’s financial regulators are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of a $1.2 trillion rally since the start of August, people familiar with the matter said. BBG
- A rare meeting of Chinese fiscal and monetary policymakers has prompted speculation among analysts that easing measures are on the cards that will bolster the bond market and economic growth this year. BBG
- Japan and the United States are in the final stages of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile imports within 10-14 days after the issuance of a U.S. presidential executive order, a Japanese government source told Reuters on Thursday. That means that a reduced U.S. tariff rate on Japanese cars, from the current 27.5% to 15%, is set to take effect by the end of this month. RTRS
- BYD, the Chinese EV giant, has slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% (from ~5.5M units to ~4.6M) as demand cools and competition rises. RTRS
- Alibaba, ByteDance and other Chinese tech firms remain keen on Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips despite regulators in Beijing strongly discouraging them from such purchases, four people with knowledge of procurement discussions said. They want reassurance that their orders of Nvidia’s H20 model, which the U.S. firm in July regained permission to sell in China, are being processed, and are closely monitoring Nvidia’s plans for a more powerful chip, tentatively named the B30A and which is based on its Blackwell architecture. RTRS
- DeepSeek is building an AI model with advanced agent features to challenge rivals such as OpenAI, people familiar said. The release is planned before year-end. BBG
- European leaders are said to be increasingly concerned that Russia will mount a new Ukraine offensive. Trump told CBS he remains committed to pursuing a peace agreement. BBG
- Bond traders are banking on revenue from Trump’s tariffs to bolster the US’s public finances,, in a sharp switch from earlier this year when his trade war triggered a brutal sell off in the Treasury mkt. investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump’s tax cuts and keep a lid on US borrowing. FT
- The rally in small-cap stocks has stalled as rising yields and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy weigh on investor sentiment. The Russell 2000 Index has dropped every day so far in September. BBG
- BofA Institute total card spending +2.8% Y/Y in week ending August 30th (vs +1.8% July average); Spending growth for pre-Labor Day at 1.9%, supporting a Q3 rebound.
Corporate News
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will invest as much as $1 billion in T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and team up with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail investors.
- Revolut Ltd. is quietly engineering a series of transactions that would allow the fintech to stay private for longer while maintaining strict control over its registry of shareholders.
- DeepSeek is developing an artificial intelligence model with more advanced AI agent features to compete with US rivals like OpenAI in a newer frontier of the technology, Bloomberg News has reported.
- Sanofi’s experimental drug for the skin condition atopic dermatitis disappointed investors in a late stage trial, after the benefit of the drug was less than expected. The stock fell.
- Tesla Inc. said it has opened its robotaxi app to the general public, suggesting the company will soon roll out the service beyond a select group of early access users in Austin, Texas.
- Apple Inc. is planning to launch its own artificial intelligence-powered web search tool next year, stepping up competition with OpenAI and Perplexity AI Inc.
- Salesforce Inc. shares fell 6% in premarket trading as the firm projected lackluster quarterly sales growth, suggesting its artificial intelligence product isn’t yet paying off as quickly as hoped for.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. Chief Executive Officer Antonio Neri said the company expects to weather a slimming of profit margins as it enters a new era of artificial intelligence-driven demand.
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s Commerce Ministry announced anti-dumping duties on some types of US optical fibres, effective September 4th.
- Japan and the US in final stage of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports, according to Japanese sources cited by Reuters; reductions could take effect within 10-14 days after US presidential executive order. Japan and the US to issue joint statement on July trade accord, also MoU on rules for Japan’s investment package. Japan aims to secure an executive order soon after the trade negotiator arrives in Washington.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside, where tech and communications outperformed following the Google antitrust ruling, and participants digested dovish data and Fed rhetoric. ASX 200 advanced with the gains led higher by outperformance in the top-weighted financial sector and with tech stocks inspired by US counterparts. Nikkei 225 outperformed despite light catalysts, although Japan’s trade negotiator Akazawa is scheduled to visit the US from today, while he noted that administrative issues have been resolved and will continue to push for a presidential order for what has been agreed on tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following a report that China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, while US-China frictions resurfaced following US President Trump’s comments during the Victory Day parade and with China announcing anti-dumping duties on optical fibre from the US.
Top Asian News
- China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s Global Times, on Nasdaq exchange’s proposed changes to its listing standard, says “The proposed rule could be seen as targeted or discriminatory, potentially restricting Chinese companies, especially tech firms, from listing in the US,”.
- China’s DeepSeek is reportedly targeting AI agent release by year-end, according to Bloomberg.
- UMC (2303 TT) reports August 2025 revenue -7.2% Y/Y.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mixed and traded tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark, before sentiment improved a little to now show a mostly positive picture. European sectors opened mixed but now hold a slight positive bias. Travel & Leisure is found right at the foot of the pile, and is the clear underperformer today. Downside which has been driven by Jet2 (-14%), after the Co. provided an awful trading update, where it now sees EBIT at the lower end of its guided range. Healthcare also sits towards the foot of the pile, giving back some of the prior day’s losses, but also following an update from Sanofi (-8.7%); the Co. announced that amlitelimab met all primary and key secondary endpoints in the COAST 1 phase 3 study. Though analysts highlight that the efficacy of the drug did not meet expectations.
Top European News
- Germany’s IFW says 2025 GDP expected at 0.1%, 2026 at 1.3% and 2027 at 1.2%. Unemployment expected to decline to 5.8% from 6.3% this year.
- RWI forecasts that the German economy will grow 0.20% in 2025 (prev. saw 0.30%); sees 1.1% in 2026 (prev. saw 1.5%).
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research lowers 2025 German economic growth forecast to 0.2% (prev. saw 0.3%); cuts 2026 forecast to 1.3% (prev. saw 1.5%).
- BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – August 2025: In the three months to August, firms reported that their year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7%, unchanged from the three months to July. Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% in the three months to August.
- Riksbank’s Jansson says underlying inflation pressures do not look too dramatic. There is a risk that temporary inflation effects could become more persistent if they find a way into price-setting behaviour, wages, and inflation expectations. A situation with higher inflation is much worse than a slightly delayed economic recovery. Being on top of the inflationary issue, “even though we are optimistic”, is important. Don’t need to hit 2% exactly before bank can cut, but need confirmation that inflation is temporary and, on the way, down.
FX
- DXY is a touch higher after suffering on Thursday in the wake of a larger-than-expected decline in US job openings, which further added to the narrative that the labour market is continuing to cool. Today sees further jobs metrics from the US with ADP, weekly claims and Challenger lay-offs all due on deck. Elsewhere, ISM Services will be parsed for evidence of how tariffs are impacting the non-manufacturing industry and used as a proxy for Q3 growth. Fed speak today includes Williams, who will be speaking on the outlook for policy and the economy. Traders will also be mindful of Fed nominee Miran’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. DXY delved as low as 98.07.
- EUR is steady vs. the USD and holding below its 50DMA at 1.1665 after a session of slight gains yesterday. Following a non-incremental Eurozone inflation release earlier in the week, newsflow for the Bloc has slowed down. We have heard from a slew of ECB speakers covering both the dovish and hawkish ends of the spectrum. French political tensions remain a part of the market narrative ahead of next Monday’s confidence vote in PM Bayrou. A softer-than-expected outturn for EZ retail had little sway on price action. EUR/USD is currently caged within Wednesday’s 1.1607-82 range.
- After clawing back some of its recent losses vs. the USD yesterday, the JPY is once again on backfoot with USD/JPY reverting back onto a 148 handle. Price action for the pair this week has been dictated by perceptions of the BoJ being non-committal to additional tightening and broader moves in the USD. JPY saw some mild support following source reporting via Reuters that Japan and the US are in the final stage of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports; reductions could take effect within 10-14 days after a US presidential executive order. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 148.41.
- GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD after a steady start to the session with little follow-through from Wednesday’s BoE TSC hearing, which saw policymakers broadly (ex-Taylor) reaffirm their cautious stance on additional easing given the risks surrounding the persistence of underlying inflation. The August DMP report showed expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1ppts to 3.3% in the three months to August. Cable currently sits towards the top end of Wednesday’s 1.3333-1.3458 range.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD after gaining vs. the greenback on Wednesday. With little follow-through seen from a larger-than-expected Australian goods balance during APAC trade, broader moves in the USD will likely dictate the state-of-play for both pairs.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1052 vs exp. 7.1405 (Prev. 7.1108).
USTs
- USTS are flat/incrementally firmer. In a very thin 112-16 to 112-22 bound. Numerous updates on the trade and Fed front overnight, but nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative as we await the Senate hearing on Miran’s appointment to the Fed and then numerous US data prints, which include ADP National Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI.
- Bunds are firmer. Specifics for the region remain focussed on politics and supply. On the first point, French PM Bayrou is holding a meeting with the Socialist Party this morning, though the Socialists remain clear that they will not support Bayrou and the gathering is essentially a formality. As such, the base case firmly remains that Bayrou will lose Monday’s confidence vote, barring an 11th hour deal. On the supply front, Spain was well received and passed without incident. More pertinently, given the political situation, France sold the top-end of its forecast amount though the longer-dated cover was a little softer than is typically the case, seemingly weighing on OATs by around 10 ticks. Bunds at the upper end of a 129.27 to 129.70 band; was briefly held back on the French auction but has since continued to climb to fresh highs.
- Gilts moved in tandem with EGBs throughout the morning. Opened higher by just under 10 ticks before extending to gains of over 40 at best. Printing a 90.66 WTD high, looking to a double-top of 90.84 from last week. Press focus remains firmly on the Deputy PM. Given this, updates around the Autumn Budget have quietened down a touch. On Wednesday, Chancellor Reeves pushed back against some forecasts that the “black hole” in UK finances is GBP 50bln in size, remarks which also saw her reiterate commitment to the fiscal rules and describe a lot of the speculation around her taxation plans as “rubbish”.
- Spain sells EUR 5.49bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 1.40% 2028, 3.10% 2031, 4.20% 2037 Bono and EUR vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.00% 2030 I/L.
- France sells EUR 11bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11bln 3.50% 2035, 3.60% 2042, and 3.75% 2056 OAT.
- UK sells GBP 800mln 0.625% 2045 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.91x (prev. 3.19x) & real yield 2.412% (prev. 2.23%).
Commodities
- Crude remains subdued after declining yesterday on OPEC+ headlines with the group reportedly mulling another oil production hike at Sunday’s meeting but with the decision not yet made. That being said, prices this morning found a floor after Russian Deputy PM Novak clarified OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now, and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet. Novak added current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. WTI currently resides in a 63.05-63.84/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.67-67.41/bbl range.
- Softer trade across the board for precious metals despite a lack of fresh catalysts but with some possible profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,511-3,564.15/oz range at the time of writing, with the next upside level being Wednesday’s peak at USD 3,578.66/oz.
- Base metals are lower across the board despite a relatively rangebound dollar and mixed risk sentiment, although Chinese markets traded with low spirit overnight which could explain the similar sentiment in industrial commodities.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now; no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet; current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered.
- OPEC+ could weigh a 12-month phase-out of the cut, delegate sources told Argus, implying monthly increments of about 137k BPD; should this go ahead they expect a cautious approach, maintaining the flexibility to increase, pause, reduce or even reverse. There are also doubts over some countries’ ability to ramp up production. Kazakhstan has been consistently overproducing and is near its maximum capacity. The unwinding of the cut “will amount to nothing more than 700,000-800,000 b/d at best”, a delegate said. “If we bring it in a phased process, monthly increments will be around 60,000 to 70,000 b/d. The impact will be minimal,” the delegate said.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (exp. -2mln), Distillates +3.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline -4.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +2.1mln.
- Russia’s Energy Minister said Rosneft signed a deal on additional supply of 2.5mln tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan.
- Russian Energy Minister says construction work on raising of existing Power of Siberia pipeline capacity to 44bcm (currently 38bcm) has already commenced, via Ria; adjustments to be made so maintenance does not occur in high demand periods
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel reportedly conducted a strike on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Ansariyah in southern Lebanon, according to Visegrad 24 via X.
- “The “Gideon 2 vehicles” operation in Gaza may extend to a full year”, via Sky News Arabia citing Yedioth Ahronoth’s miliary sources
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said he will find out over the next week or so how good the relationship is with Russia, while he also commented that the US will help Poland protect itself with US soldiers to remain in Poland and will put more there if they want. Furthermore, Trump said he will be talking to Ukrainian President Zelensky shortly in the next days, as well as implied 2nd and 3rd phases of Russian oil sanctions.
- Russia said security guarantees sought by Ukraine are “guarantees of danger to the European continent”. It was separately reported that a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said allegations of Russia being behind European Commission President Von der Leyen’s plane incident is fake and paranoia.
- North Korean leader Kim and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Beijing where Putin highly praised North Korean soldiers fighting in Kursk and Kim expressed thanks, while Kim told Putin that North Korea would continue to support Russia and the leaders reaffirmed they would keep bilateral relations at a high level, according to KCNA.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to have a one-on-one meeting with US Envoy Witkoff on Thursday, according to Reuters sources.
- WSJ’s Norman posts “any claim that Europe is “ready” on its part in security guarantees is a very significant exaggeration.”
US Event Calendar
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The global bond selloff finally paused for breath yesterday, as weak US data meant investors ramped up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. The main catalyst was the JOLTS report for July, which showed that job openings fell to a 10-month low and exacerbated fears about a labour market slowdown. So that pushed the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.2bps) to 3.62%, whilst the 30yr yield (-6.5bps) saw an even bigger decline to 4.90%. Moreover, any fall in yields is going to ease some concern about the fiscal situation, which gave risk assets a lift as well on both sides of the Atlantic. So equities put in a decent performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.51%) moving back within 1% of its record high from last Thursday.
Perhaps the most interesting data today will be the prices paid components in the US ISM services release. As you’ll see on page 41 in our pack it has a very good record of leading CPI. Last month it climbed to 69.9 which if you took at face value from the graph predicts over 5% US CPI in the coming months. Now clearly that’s highly unlikely, as the prices paid is more prone to spikes than CPI, but it shows where the momentum and risks are for now. So markets do need to see this mean revert lower soon.
Back to yesterday, and it had been quite a different story at the start of the day, as right after the European open, the US 30yr yield moved within a whisker of 5% again, reaching an intraday peak of 4.9997%, a full 10bps above its closing level. But those moves then unwound, as several data releases started to come in more softly than expected. That began in Europe, where the final services and composite PMIs for August mostly saw downward revisions. For instance, the German services PMI was revised down to 49.3 (vs. flash 50.1), putting it back in contractionary territory, whilst the Euro Area services PMI came down as well to 50.5 (vs. flash at 50.7).
Those moves then got further momentum during the US session, where weak data and somewhat dovish Fed commentary pushed the rally on. Most dovish was Governor Waller, who voted for a rate cut at the most recent meeting. He reiterated his expectation that the Fed should cut at the next meeting and favoured multiple cuts over the next few months. In addition to the JOLTS release, his labour market concerns got some support from the Fed’s latest Beige Book which saw seven of the twelve Fed districts report that “firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty”. Separately, St Louis Fed President Musalem said he expected the labour market “to gradually cool and remain near full employment with risks tilted to the downside”. And Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he still only favoured one cut this year, but suggested that September could be in play if economic data weakened from here.
Speaking of the Fed, we might get a better sense of the outlook today, as the Senate Banking Committee are holding the nomination hearing for Stephen Miran, who Trump has nominated to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. The administration are trying to get him confirmed in time for the next FOMC meeting on September 16-17. But from a market point of view, it’ll be interesting to hear senators’ questioning of Miran’s views on Fed independence as Trump seeks to reshape the makeup of the Fed’s Board and influence it to cut rates. In prepared opening remarks released yesterday ahead of the hearing, Miran says that “Independence of monetary policy is a critical element” of the Fed’s success and that “I intend to preserve that independence”. As it stands, the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, so Miran doesn’t need any Democratic votes to be confirmed, and he was confirmed to his current position as CEA Chair by a 53-46 vote with all Republicans in support.
The topic of Governor Cook’s attempted dismissal also stayed in the headlines, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who’s a potential swing vote in the Senate Banking Committee on any Fed nominee, saying that he would not consider any nominee to replace Cook until the courts determined the legality of Trump’s move to fire her.
Otherwise, the bond rally got its main push from that JOLTS report yesterday, which showed the US labour market was a bit softer than expected. Notably, the number of job openings fell to a 10-month low of 7.181m (vs. 7.380m expected). So that confirmed the message from the underwhelming July jobs report, and it added to fears that the labour market was softening more significantly. Indeed, it backed up the message from Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that the “downside risks to employment are rising”. That meant investors moved to price in more Fed rate cuts for the months ahead, with a 25bps September rate cut now 100% priced as I type. And in turn, yields moved lower across the Treasury curve yesterday, with the 2yr down -2.2bps to 3.62%, whilst the 10yr was down -4.4bps to 4.22%, a level it’s settling at in overnight trading.
Over in Europe, sovereign bonds followed a pretty similar pattern, with yields moving lower across the continent. To some extent, the moves fed upon themselves, as markets moved from a vicious circle to a virtuous one where lower yields helped to ease fears about debt sustainability and helped yields fall further. So by the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-4.2bps), BTPs (-6.2bps) and gilts (-5.2bps) had all moved lower. But even with that rally, there’s still a fair amount of nervousness before Monday’s confidence vote in the French National Assembly, with the Franco-German 10yr spread closing back above 80bps again.
For equities, lower bond yields provided a decent tailwind as concerns eased about the fiscal position. So that led to a rally on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 up +0.51%, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 rose +0.66%. In the US, tech stocks provided a big lift that meant the Magnificent 7 surged +2.20%, aided by a very strong performance for Alphabet (+9.14%) that made it the strongest performer in the entire S&P 500. That followed the news after the previous day’s US close, that we discussed yesterday, that Google had avoided a breakup and won’t have to sell its Chrome browser.
In the commodity space, gold rose +0.74% to a new record high of $3,559/oz but has given up these gains this morning in Asia. Meanwhile, oil prices fell after Reuters reported that OPEC+ will consider further raising oil production at a meeting this Sunday, with WTI crude seeing its biggest decline in over a month (-2.47% to $63.97/bbl). Oil is extending these declines in Asia, down another -0.7%.
In Asia there is a major divide between Chinese stocks and the rest. Chinese markets are underperforming, with the CSI down by -2.47%, the Shanghai Composite declining by -1.97%, and the Hang Seng falling by -1.21%. This decline follows a report from Bloomberg indicating that China’s financial regulators are contemplating measures to limit stock market speculation due to concerns regarding the rapid pace of a $1.2 trillion rally that began in early August.
Outside of China, sentiment is much more upbeat, likely helped by the global bond rally over the past 12-24 hours. The Nikkei is up +1.52%, leading the gains, while the Topix has also increased by +0.93%. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 has climbed by +0.95%, recovering from significant losses in the previous session, after robust GDP data tempered some expectations for further interest rate reductions by the RBA. Meanwhile, the KOSPI has edged up +0.13%, marking its third consecutive session of gains following positive GDP figures released earlier in the week. S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.18%) futures are also edging up. 10 and 30yr JGB yields are -1.5bps and -3.3bps lower respectively after a 30 year auction that saw demand broadly in line with its two year average.
Early morning data revealed that Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$7.31 billion in July, (vs. A$4.90 billion expected), the highest level since February 2024. It follows an increase from the revised surplus of A$5.37 billion recorded in June.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases in Europe include Euro Area retail sales for July, whilst in the US we’ll get the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August, the weekly initial jobless claims and the ISM services for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Williams and Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Cipollone. Finally, the Senate Banking Committee will hold the nomination hearing for Stephen Miran to join the Fed’s Board of Governors.
2b) European opening report
US equity futures move higher, DXY/USTs await key US data & Fed Chair nominee Miran’s hearing – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 06:15 AM
- European bourses and US equity futures are modestly firmer ahead of US data.
- USD awaits a data deluge, Antipodeans lag and JPY digests potential US/Japan auto tariff reduction.
- EGBs and Gilts bounce while USTs remain flat into data; Spanish auction was well received, whilst some short-lived pressure was seen on the French outing.
- Oil pulls back as traders brace ahead of this weekend’s OPEC meeting; some upside in the complex seen after Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now.
- Looking ahead, US ISM Services PMI (Aug), ADP National Employment (Aug), Challenger Layoffs (Aug), Jobless Claims, Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian Trade Balance (Jul), BoE DMP, Senate Banking Committee to hold hearing for US President Trump’s Fed nominee Stephen Miran, Speakers including Fed’s Williams & RBA’s Hauser.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s Commerce Ministry announced anti-dumping duties on some types of US optical fibres, effective September 4th.
- Japan and the US in final stage of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports, according to Japanese sources cited by Reuters; reductions could take effect within 10-14 days after US presidential executive order. Japan and the US to issue joint statement on July trade accord, also MoU on rules for Japan’s investment package. Japan aims to secure an executive order soon after the trade negotiator arrives in Washington.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mixed and traded tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark, before sentiment improved a little to now show a mostly positive picture.
- European sectors opened mixed but now hold a slight positive bias. Travel & Leisure is found right at the foot of the pile, and is the clear underperformer today. Downside which has been driven by Jet2 (-14%), after the Co. provided an awful trading update, where it now sees EBIT at the lower end of its guided range. Healthcare also sits towards the foot of the pile, giving back some of the prior day’s losses, but also following an update from Sanofi (-8.7%); the Co. announced that amlitelimab met all primary and key secondary endpoints in the COAST 1 phase 3 study. Though analysts highlight that the efficacy of the drug did not meet expectations.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer today, with the ES / NQ building on some of the strength seen in the prior session.
- Chinese firms are reportedly still keen on NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chips despite gov’t pressure not to purchase them, via Reuters citing sources; NVIDIA’s planned new China market chip is likely to be double the price of the H20. NVIDIA has assured Chinese firms that they do not need to worry about the availability of the H20.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is a touch higher after suffering on Thursday in the wake of a larger-than-expected decline in US job openings, which further added to the narrative that the labour market is continuing to cool. Today sees further jobs metrics from the US with ADP, weekly claims and Challenger lay-offs all due on deck. Elsewhere, ISM Services will be parsed for evidence of how tariffs are impacting the non-manufacturing industry and used as a proxy for Q3 growth. Fed speak today includes Williams, who will be speaking on the outlook for policy and the economy. Traders will also be mindful of Fed nominee Miran’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. DXY delved as low as 98.07.
- EUR is steady vs. the USD and holding below its 50DMA at 1.1665 after a session of slight gains yesterday. Following a non-incremental Eurozone inflation release earlier in the week, newsflow for the Bloc has slowed down. We have heard from a slew of ECB speakers covering both the dovish and hawkish ends of the spectrum. French political tensions remain a part of the market narrative ahead of next Monday’s confidence vote in PM Bayrou. A softer-than-expected outturn for EZ retail had little sway on price action. EUR/USD is currently caged within Wednesday’s 1.1607-82 range.
- After clawing back some of its recent losses vs. the USD yesterday, the JPY is once again on backfoot with USD/JPY reverting back onto a 148 handle. Price action for the pair this week has been dictated by perceptions of the BoJ being non-committal to additional tightening and broader moves in the USD. JPY saw some mild support following source reporting via Reuters that Japan and the US are in the final stage of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports; reductions could take effect within 10-14 days after a US presidential executive order. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 148.41.
- GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD after a steady start to the session with little follow-through from Wednesday’s BoE TSC hearing, which saw policymakers broadly (ex-Taylor) reaffirm their cautious stance on additional easing given the risks surrounding the persistence of underlying inflation. The August DMP report showed expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1ppts to 3.3% in the three months to August. Cable currently sits towards the top end of Wednesday’s 1.3333-1.3458 range.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD after gaining vs. the greenback on Wednesday. With little follow-through seen from a larger-than-expected Australian goods balance during APAC trade, broader moves in the USD will likely dictate the state-of-play for both pairs.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1052 vs exp. 7.1405 (Prev. 7.1108).
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FIXED INCOME
- USTS are flat/incrementally firmer. In a very thin 112-16 to 112-22 bound. Numerous updates on the trade and Fed front overnight, but nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative as we await the Senate hearing on Miran’s appointment to the Fed and then numerous US data prints, which include ADP National Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI.
- Bunds are firmer. Specifics for the region remain focussed on politics and supply. On the first point, French PM Bayrou is holding a meeting with the Socialist Party this morning, though the Socialists remain clear that they will not support Bayrou and the gathering is essentially a formality. As such, the base case firmly remains that Bayrou will lose Monday’s confidence vote, barring an 11th hour deal. On the supply front, Spain was well received and passed without incident. More pertinently, given the political situation, France sold the top-end of its forecast amount though the longer-dated cover was a little softer than is typically the case, seemingly weighing on OATs by around 10 ticks. Bunds at the upper end of a 129.27 to 129.70 band; was briefly held back on the French auction but has since continued to climb to fresh highs.
- Gilts moved in tandem with EGBs throughout the morning. Opened higher by just under 10 ticks before extending to gains of over 40 at best. Printing a 90.66 WTD high, looking to a double-top of 90.84 from last week. Press focus remains firmly on the Deputy PM. Given this, updates around the Autumn Budget have quietened down a touch. On Wednesday, Chancellor Reeves pushed back against some forecasts that the “black hole” in UK finances is GBP 50bln in size, remarks which also saw her reiterate commitment to the fiscal rules and describe a lot of the speculation around her taxation plans as “rubbish”.
- Spain sells EUR 5.49bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 1.40% 2028, 3.10% 2031, 4.20% 2037 Bono and EUR vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.00% 2030 I/L.
- France sells EUR 11bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11bln 3.50% 2035, 3.60% 2042, and 3.75% 2056 OAT.
- UK sells GBP 800mln 0.625% 2045 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.91x (prev. 3.19x) & real yield 2.412% (prev. 2.23%).
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude remains subdued after declining yesterday on OPEC+ headlines with the group reportedly mulling another oil production hike at Sunday’s meeting but with the decision not yet made. That being said, prices this morning found a floor after Russian Deputy PM Novak clarified OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now, and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet. Novak added current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. WTI currently resides in a 63.05-63.84/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.67-67.41/bbl range.
- Softer trade across the board for precious metals despite a lack of fresh catalysts but with some possible profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,511-3,564.15/oz range at the time of writing, with the next upside level being Wednesday’s peak at USD 3,578.66/oz.
- Base metals are lower across the board despite a relatively rangebound dollar and mixed risk sentiment, although Chinese markets traded with low spirit overnight which could explain the similar sentiment in industrial commodities.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now; no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet; current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered.
- OPEC+ could weigh a 12-month phase-out of the cut, delegate sources told Argus, implying monthly increments of about 137k BPD; should this go ahead they expect a cautious approach, maintaining the flexibility to increase, pause, reduce or even reverse. There are also doubts over some countries’ ability to ramp up production. Kazakhstan has been consistently overproducing and is near its maximum capacity. The unwinding of the cut “will amount to nothing more than 700,000-800,000 b/d at best”, a delegate said. “If we bring it in a phased process, monthly increments will be around 60,000 to 70,000 b/d. The impact will be minimal,” the delegate said.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (exp. -2mln), Distillates +3.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline -4.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +2.1mln.
- Russia’s Energy Minister said Rosneft signed a deal on additional supply of 2.5mln tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan.
- Russian Energy Minister says construction work on raising of existing Power of Siberia pipeline capacity to 44bcm (currently 38bcm) has already commenced, via Ria; adjustments to be made so maintenance does not occur in high demand periods
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NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU Retail Sales YY (Jul) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 3.1%); EU Retail Sales MM (Jul) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
- EU HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 46.7 (Prev. 44.7); German HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 46.0 (Prev. 46.3); Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 47.7 (Prev. 48.3); French HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 46.7 (Prev. 39.7)
- UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug) 45.5 (Prev. 44.3)
- Swedish CPIF Ex Energy Flash YY (Aug) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.2%); CPIF Flash YY (Aug) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.0%)
- Swiss CPI MM (Aug) -0.1% vs. (exp. 0.0%, prev. 0.0%); CPI YY (Aug) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Germany’s IFW says 2025 GDP expected at 0.1%, 2026 at 1.3% and 2027 at 1.2%. Unemployment expected to decline to 5.8% from 6.3% this year.
- RWI forecasts that the German economy will grow 0.20% in 2025 (prev. saw 0.30%); sees 1.1% in 2026 (prev. saw 1.5%).
- Ifo Institute for Economic Research lowers 2025 German economic growth forecast to 0.2% (prev. saw 0.3%); cuts 2026 forecast to 1.3% (prev. saw 1.5%).
- BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – August 2025: In the three months to August, firms reported that their year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7%, unchanged from the three months to July. Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% in the three months to August.
- Riksbank’s Jansson says underlying inflation pressures do not look too dramatic. There is a risk that temporary inflation effects could become more persistent if they find a way into price-setting behaviour, wages, and inflation expectations. A situation with higher inflation is much worse than a slightly delayed economic recovery. Being on top of the inflationary issue, “even though we are optimistic”, is important. Don’t need to hit 2% exactly before bank can cut, but need confirmation that inflation is temporary and, on the way, down.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- BofA Institute total card spending +2.8% Y/Y in week ending August 30th (vs +1.8% July average); Spending growth for pre-Labor Day at 1.9%, supporting a Q3 rebound.
- US House Republicans are reportedly less than eager to extend Obamacare subsidies which expire at the end of the year, via Punchbowl; a GOP aide cited said an extension is “Incredibly unpopular within the conference, expensive, bad policy, etc.,”
- US Republicans are looking into and/or speaking out against the administration’s plan to use the CHIPS Act to take a stake in Intel (INTC), via Punchbowl; Senator Rounds is looking into its legality while Young is said to be sceptical.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel reportedly conducted a strike on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Ansariyah in southern Lebanon, according to Visegrad 24 via X.
- “The “Gideon 2 vehicles” operation in Gaza may extend to a full year”, via Sky News Arabia citing Yedioth Ahronoth’s miliary sources
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he will find out over the next week or so how good the relationship is with Russia, while he also commented that the US will help Poland protect itself with US soldiers to remain in Poland and will put more there if they want. Furthermore, Trump said he will be talking to Ukrainian President Zelensky shortly in the next days, as well as implied 2nd and 3rd phases of Russian oil sanctions.
- Russia said security guarantees sought by Ukraine are “guarantees of danger to the European continent”. It was separately reported that a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said allegations of Russia being behind European Commission President Von der Leyen’s plane incident is fake and paranoia.
- North Korean leader Kim and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Beijing where Putin highly praised North Korean soldiers fighting in Kursk and Kim expressed thanks, while Kim told Putin that North Korea would continue to support Russia and the leaders reaffirmed they would keep bilateral relations at a high level, according to KCNA.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to have a one-on-one meeting with US Envoy Witkoff on Thursday, according to Reuters sources.
- WSJ’s Norman posts “any claim that Europe is “ready” on its part in security guarantees is a very significant exaggeration.”
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little weaker today and trades around USD 110.5k whilst Ethereum is firmer and trades just shy of the USD 4.4k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside, where tech and communications outperformed following the Google antitrust ruling, and participants digested dovish data and Fed rhetoric.
- ASX 200 advanced with the gains led higher by outperformance in the top-weighted financial sector and with tech stocks inspired by US counterparts.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed despite light catalysts, although Japan’s trade negotiator Akazawa is scheduled to visit the US from today, while he noted that administrative issues have been resolved and will continue to push for a presidential order for what has been agreed on tariffs.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following a report that China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, while US-China frictions resurfaced following US President Trump’s comments during the Victory Day parade and with China announcing anti-dumping duties on optical fibre from the US.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s Global Times, on Nasdaq exchange’s proposed changes to its listing standard, says “The proposed rule could be seen as targeted or discriminatory, potentially restricting Chinese companies, especially tech firms, from listing in the US,”.
- China’s DeepSeek is reportedly targeting AI agent release by year-end, according to Bloomberg.
- UMC (2303 TT) reports August 2025 revenue -7.2% Y/Y.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Balance on Goods (Jul) 7,310M vs Exp. 5,000M (Prev. 5,365M)
- Australian Goods/Services Imports (Jul) -1.3% (Prev. -3.1%); Exports (Jul) 3.0% (Prev. 6.0%)
2c) Asian opening report
Trade and geopolitics in focus into a packed US agenda – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 01:45 AM
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside, where tech and communications outperformed following the Google antitrust ruling, and participants digested dovish data and Fed rhetoric.
- US President Trump said it is possible that someday tariffs will replace income tax.
- UK Chancellor Reeves dismissed forecasts of a GBP 50bln “black hole” in the public finances, despite higher borrowing costs and expected tax rises piling pressure on the chancellor ahead of the autumn Budget, according to the BBC.
- US President Trump said he will find out over the next week or so how good the relationship is with Russia, while he also commented that the US will help Poland protect itself with US soldiers to remain in Poland and will put more there if they want
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.6% on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF (Aug), Swiss CPI (Aug), EZ Retail Sales, US ISM Services PMI (Aug), ADP National Employment (Aug), Challenger Layoffs (Aug), Jobless Claims, Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian Trade Balance (Jul), BoE DMP, Senate Banking Committee to hold hearing for US President Trump’s Fed nominee Stephen Miran, Federal Housing Press Conference “In the Matter of Lisa D. Cook”, Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Williams & RBA’s Hauser, Supply from Spain, France, UK & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed mixed with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 led higher by outperformance in the Communication and Tech sectors, which was largely a function of the upside in Alphabet and Apple following the US court ruling that Google can keep its Chrome browser and is also not required to cease payments to AAPL and others for preloading Google products.
- Meanwhile, breadth was soft with the majority of sectors down and with small caps and the equal-weight S&P underperforming, while upside was seen in T-notes and the dollar was pressured following dovish data and Fed Speak.
- SPX +0.51% at 6,448, NDX +0.79% at 23,415, DJI -0.05% at 45,271, RUT -0.10% at 2,350.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said it is possible that someday tariffs will replace income tax.
- US reportedly told countries not to back fuel emissions deal at the UN shipping agency, or face possible tariffs.
- Mexico and the US have established high-level implementation groups to monitor commitments and take actions in their own countries, according to a joint statement. This includes measures to counter cartels, strengthen border security, eliminate clandestine border tunnels, address illicit financial flows, enhance collaboration to prevent fuel theft, and efforts to stem the flow of drugs and weapons.
- China’s Commerce Ministry announced anti-dumping duties on some types of US optical fibres, effective September 4th.
- German Chancellor Merz said he will shortly invite companies and stakeholders to the national steel summit and noted that businesses have been suffering from high tariffs, while he will also be entering into talks with car makers and auto suppliers to discuss the current sector challenges.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Beige Book stated most of the twelve Fed districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period, and four districts reported modest growth, while contacts frequently cited economic uncertainty and tariffs as negative factors.
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation is still too high and the Fed is not done with work to bring inflation back to 2%, while he added the labour market is showing signs of cooling and the Fed is getting into a tricky situation with mandates. Furthermore, he said data suggests the economy is slowing and moving to a soft landing. Fed’s Kashkari also commented that they have every reason to believe there will be a gentle cooling in the economy, and interest rates have some room to come down gently, while he is not forecasting a recession.
- Fed Governor nominee Miran said the main job of the central bank is to prevent depression and inflation, while he added that the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet is an open question and independence of monetary policy is a critical element.
- Republican Senator Tillis said he would not consider a nominee to replace ousted Fed Governor Cook until the legality of US President Trump’s move to fire her has been determined in court, according to Politico.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside, where tech and communications outperformed following the Google antitrust ruling, and participants digested dovish data and Fed rhetoric.
- ASX 200 advanced with the gains led higher by outperformance in the top-weighted financial sector and with tech stocks inspired by US counterparts.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed despite light catalysts, although Japan’s trade negotiator Akazawa is scheduled to visit the US from today, while he noted that administrative issues have been resolved and will continue to push for a presidential order for what has been agreed on tariffs.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following a report that China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, while US-China frictions resurfaced following US President Trump’s comments during the Victory Day parade and with China announcing anti-dumping duties on optical fibre from the US.
- US equity futures traded rangebound overnight with participants awaiting the upcoming key data releases.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.6% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY traded rangebound after softening yesterday on the lower-than-expected US JOLTS data which showed a slight fall in the vacancy rate, while the number of unemployed workers exceeded available jobs for the first time since 2021. The data spurred a marginal boost to Fed rate cut bets, although participants now await today’s ADP and Jobless Claims metrics ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. Furthermore, there were several Fed comments in which Waller reiterated his call for a September rate cut, but advocated for a data-dependent approach regarding cuts beyond the next meeting, while Musalem expects tariffs to work through the economy over two to three quarters, before fading, and Bostic still sees one rate cut this year as appropriate and didn’t rule out a September cut given the upcoming jobs report and inflation data.
- EUR/USD traded little changed and continued to languish at the sub-1.1700 territory with little major catalysts for the single currency ahead of EU Retail Sales.
- GBP/USD took a breather following the prior day’s rebound and after a slew of BoE comments did little to shift the dial.
- USD/JPY lacked conviction after a recent brief dip beneath the 148.00 level and in the absence of any tier-1 data releases.
- Antipodeans were contained with little reaction seen to the latest Australian trade data, as FX participants braced for the upcoming key events stateside.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1052 vs exp. 7.1405 (Prev. 7.1108).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures took a breather after climbing on the back of soft JOLTS data and dovish rhetoric from several Fed officials, while participants look ahead to further data releases including ISM Services PMI and more job-related metrics later today, ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
- Bund futures marginally extended on gains after rebounding yesterday to back above the 129.00 level.
- 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the recent upside in global peers and were unfazed by a weaker-than-previous 30yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained subdued after declining yesterday on OPEC+ headlines with the group reportedly mulling another oil production hike at Sunday’s meeting but with the decision not yet made, while prices were also not helped by mixed private sector inventory data which showed a surprise build in headline crude stockpiles.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (exp. -2mln), Distillates +3.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline -4.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +2.1mln.
- Russia’s Energy Minister said Rosneft signed a deal on additional supply of 2.5mln tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan.
- Nigeria’s Dangote refinery (650k BPD) gasoline-producing unit has gone offline due to catalyst leaks and technical issues and repairs are estimated to take two weeks, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Spot gold pulled back from the prior day’s fresh record highs after benefitting from a weaker dollar and dovish tailwinds.
- Copper futures were pressured amid the mixed overnight risk appetite and underperformance in its largest buyer, China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin trickled lower after failing to sustain a brief return to above the USD 112k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China is said to consider curbs on stock speculation to foster steady gains, according to Bloomberg.
- India’s GST council approved changes in the consumption tax rate with new lower rates to be effective from September 22nd.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Balance on Goods (Jul) 7,310M vs Exp. 5,000M (Prev. 5,365M)
- Australian Goods/Services Imports (Jul) -1.3% (Prev. -3.1%)
- Australian Goods/Services Exports (Jul) 3.0% (Prev. 6.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Hamas reiterated it is ready for a comprehensive Gaza deal through which all Israeli hostages are released.
- Two Israeli officials claimed US Secretary of State Rubio has signalled in private meetings that he doesn’t oppose West Bank annexations and the Trump administration won’t stand in the way, according to Axios.
- Israel reportedly conducted a strike on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Ansariyah in southern Lebanon, according to Visegrad 24 via X.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he will find out over the next week or so how good the relationship is with Russia, while he also commented that the US will help Poland protect itself with US soldiers to remain in Poland and will put more there if they want. Furthermore, Trump said he will be talking to Ukrainian President Zelensky shortly in the next days, as well as implied 2nd and 3rd phases of Russian oil sanctions.
- Russia said security guarantees sought by Ukraine are “guarantees of danger to the European continent”. It was separately reported that a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said allegations of Russia being behind European Commission President Von der Leyen’s plane incident is fake and paranoia.
- US Special Envoy Witkoff is in Paris ahead of Ukraine coalition meeting, according to Reuters citing two diplomatic sources.
- French President Macron said the Coalition of the Willing is ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine if there is a ceasefire.
- North Korean leader Kim and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Beijing where Putin highly praised North Korean soldiers fighting in Kursk and Kim expressed thanks, while Kim told Putin that North Korea would continue to support Russia and the leaders reaffirmed they would keep bilateral relations at a high level, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves dismissed forecasts of a GBP 50bln “black hole” in the public finances, despite higher borrowing costs and expected tax rises piling pressure on the chancellor ahead of the autumn Budget, according to the BBC. The report also noted that Reeves has two rules on government borrowing that she has repeatedly said are “non-negotiable”, which are to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament in 2029-30, and that day-to-day government costs will be paid for by tax income, rather than borrowing by 2029-30.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
JAPAN ET AL: EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3C CHINA
CHINA
China’s weapons for all to see
ROBERT H
Given that China has made it clear to Macron and others that they will not allow Russia to be conquered as they understand that they would be next, one might imagine that common sense might prevail knowing that such war is not winnable. Rather than contemplate a fight with Russia. The money pit of corruption that Ukraine is does not have to drag Europe in a cesspool of hurt by military involvement. European financial and human capital is better spent on Europe and not on Ukraine.
The only war that can be winnable or at least worth fighting is that of trade in all things that once gave the West its street creditability and citizen prosperity. And that does mean facing up to all the problems of immigration and social inequality in respective countries. Because unless this happens, the West is real danger of losing everything brought by a history of innovation.
This is complicated by a liquidity squeeze underway now across the Western world as trade shifts ignored finally find root in a departure of need of Western currencies. One might imagine that when trade settles in national currencies that this is one shift control. However when trade settles in national currencies that excludes you as the buyer in the equation of trade bank credit actually collapses because the usual path of settlement is no longer possible leaving excluded parties naked. For example, when Brazil is tariffed on coffee normally sent to America which then goes to China. The American banks lose the conversion profits of trade in currency while American consumers face higher prices for coffee sourced elsewhere. While China wins with large scale trade and settlement which excludes the dollar from use.
These kind of trade shifts have significant impact outside of the immediate visible transaction. Simply because having settled in Yuan and Brazilian Real and not USD the settling parties are naturally encouraged to engage in more trade in exchange as to buy USD denominated goods means a diversion of currency not naturally obtained by trade. This causes such goods to be more expensive and causes banking to lose credit availability which in turn causes a shortage of currency based liquidity. This is happening in real time now. When such shifts gather momentum it becomes more difficult to have internal or external liquidity. Large ticket value assets that are discretionary face the reality of “no bid”.
This is what happened to the Soviet Union when it was collapsed by external forces based on tanking the ruble. The same thing is being done to the US today and by default to the EU. How this all shakes out is not entirely clear. However, it is clear that banking woes are coming and coming fast which will impact liquidity which in turns impacts the values of goods and services.
END
4. European affairs and NATO
GREECE
they are learning!
New Greek Law Promises Prison For Rejected Asylum-Seekers
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 04:15 AM
In the latest example of a European government taking stronger measures to curb illegal immigration, the Greek Parliament on Wednesday passed a law that promises lengthy prison sentences for migrants who stay in the country after their asylum requests have been rejected.
“The Greek state does not accept you. You only have one choice: to go back. You’re not welcome,” said Migration Minister Thanos Plevris after the bill passed. The new law is the second major tightening of Greek immigration in the last two months. On July 9, conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis completely suspended asylum applications for three months, saying he was effectively notifying human smugglers that “the passage to Greece is closed.”
The two moves came after the pace of illegal-immigrant arrivals on Crete reached crisis levels this summer, with the number of illegals landing on the island in the first six months of 2025 tripling over the same period last year. The last straw that prompted Mitsotakis’ three-month asylum ban was the arrival of more than 2,600 illegals on Crete just during the first week of July. The move quickly paid off, slashing arrivals to just 500 over the first 27 days of August.
Under the new law, which was championed by Mitsotakis, migrants who fail to leave the country after their asylum request is rejected face up to five years in prison and fines of up to 30,000 euros. The penalty for illegal entry is tripled to 10,000 euros. The deadline for leaving after being rejected was slashed from 25 days to 14, and authorities are now authorized to outfit rejected applicants with ankle monitors so they can be tracked until they leave, the New York Times reports. The law also abolished illegal immigrants’ previous privilege of applying for residence after they’d been in Greece for seven years.
During parliamentary debate on Tuesday, Plevris said asylum-seekers fell into two categories:
“There are those who are downtrodden, and then there are some who are spoiled, who think that Europe owes them. We need to put emphasis on the voluntary returns, but there will be consequences for those who do not choose to return to their countries.”
Crete became a preferred dumping ground for migrant-smugglers after other European countries imposed tougher asylum processes or increased their offshore patrols and other security measures. When asylum requests were barred, Plevris told a reporter:
“All European countries now understand that it is not possible to have open borders, it’s not possible to welcome illegal migrants with flowers. There should be a clear message that countries have borders, (that) Europe has exceeded its capabilities and will not accept any more illegal migrants.”
In one of the continuing consequences of Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton’s utterly catastrophic regime-change operation, most of the diversity landing on the shores of Crete this year has come from Libya. Cursed by geography, Greece has long suffered from the effects of US-led destabilization campaigns, particularly in 2015-16, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the Middle East, Afghanistan and Africa flowed through the country.
END
GERMANY
Germany collapsing! open borders are killing them and yet they cannot find skilled workers
(Kolbe)
Germany’s “Skills Shortage” Scam: Open Borders, Job Losses, And Economic Collapse
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
The ideology of open external borders has become a core element of Brussels policymaking. When Angela Merkel extended her 2015 invitation to millions, it merely confirmed a policy already long embedded. The claim that this had anything to do with combating the “skills shortage” was always a convenient fiction.
Germany’s economy is now in free fall. Years of overregulation, crushing fiscal burdens, and a self-inflicted energy crisis have scarred the labor market deeply. Since 2019, roughly 700,000 jobs have vanished in the private sector.
State Expansion Hides Collapse
During the same period, the government itself added nearly half a million public sector jobs. That means the real destruction in the productive economy totals around 1.2 million jobs. In 2025 alone, another 100,000 cuts are looming—an alarming verdict on Berlin’s socialist-style, centrally planned economic course. It is also the logical result of believing a subsidy-driven “Green Transition” can substitute for a private economy shaped by capital markets, competition, and innovation.
This decline is structural. Since 2018, productivity has been sliding, year after year. The German growth model has broken. In 2024, €64.5 billion in net direct investment left the country, much of it flowing to the United States, where reindustrialization, deregulation, and energy abundance make the business climate more attractive. Germany, once the world’s export engine, is bleeding capital and know-how.
The Labor Market Turns
Investment inside Germany has stalled. According to official data, the number of job openings in July fell by almost 11 percent compared to a year before, to just 628,000. Facing those positions are millions of unemployed, both Germans and migrants. Two causes stand out: state-run education systematically produces graduates misaligned with market demand, and a lavish welfare state discourages individuals from adapting and seeking productive work.
The true scale of unemployment is obscured. Hundreds of thousands are hidden in short-time work schemes, “training” programs, or statistical loopholes designed to minimize the numbers. The workers exist. And yet, media and politics never tire of repeating the warning of an acute shortage of skilled labor.
Virtually no corporate speech or think-tank study avoids the cliché of missing workers. The Cologne-based Institute for the German Economy warns of a shortage of over 530,000 skilled workers, claiming competitiveness is “dramatically endangered.” The state-owned KfW bank calls it “Germany’s biggest economic risk” and predicts “decades of weak growth” without reform. The official “solution” offered is always the same: open the borders wider, in the hope that somewhere in the tidal wave of migration a fraction of suitable candidates might be found.
The Business Reality
But the practical recruitment of skilled personnel has always been a core responsibility of management. No successful company relies on the state to provide qualified applicants. Instead, they create attractive conditions: competitive salaries, promotion prospects, and opportunities for development. They scout for talent worldwide, targeting the actual pools of expertise. They invest in integration and retention, knowing that skilled workers are in global demand.
Proactive firms go to international trade fairs, use specialized recruiters, and place ads in technical media. They recruit at schools and universities to secure their pipeline. None of this relies on state-run job agencies, symbolic “initiatives,” or the influx of unqualified economic migrants.
That German companies remain largely silent about the failures of open-border policy, just as they remain silent about the absurdities of the Green Transition, reveals the corporatist spirit now binding business and politics.
Two Camps Defend Open Borders
The narrative of “demographics” and “skills shortage” is sustained by two camps. The first are the naïve idealists, clinging to the belief that Germany’s collapsing demographics can be offset by inflows from impoverished regions. They remain blind to the cultural consequences of mass Islamization, ignore the reality of social fragmentation, and cite the United States as a model—ignoring that U.S. immigration in the 19th century was overwhelmingly European, culturally compatible, and forced into assimilation by the absence of a welfare state.
For them, Frontex—the EU’s border guard—is little more than a fig leaf for the abandoned external borders of the Union.
The second camp follows a more calculated political strategy. As in the U.S., mass immigration from impoverished, unstable regions translates into higher vote shares for the Left. They, too, invoke “demographic collapse” and “skills shortages” as justification. With media support, they have succeeded in stigmatizing any criticism of open-border policy as fascist or reactionary.
Outlook and Consequences
While the United States under Donald Trump executed the most radical immigration reversal imaginable—zero tolerance, mass deportations, and enforcement—the European Union drifts toward chaos. The rise of right-wing parties such as AfD in Germany, Fidesz in Hungary, Fratelli d’Italia under Giorgia Meloni, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France signals public resistance. But despite the surge, there is still no credible reversal in EU migration policy.
As long as symbolic gestures—such as a single deportation flight or a brief border check—are enough to calm the press and stabilize polling for the Left (and its so-called “conservative” allies), Brussels bureaucrats keep a tight grip on policy.
Meanwhile, the real solutions are being pursued not by governments but by companies: Mittelstand firms, retailers, industrial champions, and family-owned businesses. They recruit abroad, invest in training, cooperate with schools and universities, and build the pipelines the state has destroyed with its failed education system. Germany’s labor market is being salvaged not by open-border politics, but by the initiative of the very private sector that politicians continue to undermine.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
UK
Britain’s Descent Towards Civil War Is No Accident
5 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Michael Rainsborough via The Daily Sceptic,
Having lived in Australia for the past three years, I sense that this country is the least advanced down the road towards the multicultural dystopia confronting much of Europe.
That is not to say there is room for complacency: Australia has its own canaries in the coal mine, echoing trends observable across the Western world. Yet relative prosperity, firm immigration policies, a distinct welfare regime (mandatory health insurance, means tested pensions), a robust federal system, and above all a unique electoral framework of three-year cycles and compulsory voting all help, willy-nilly, to keep politicians on a short leash and broadly tethered to the popular will.
The greatest safeguard against social fracture and disintegration in Australia, however, is not institutional design but rather watching Britain implode in real time. Many Australians, still bound by ties of kinship and tradition to the old country, see in the United Kingdom both a cautionary tale and an anti-role model: a once-settled, relatively harmonious state busily teaching the world how to dismantle itself through the enthusiastic embrace of liberal dogma.
As an observer no longer resident in Britain, I am reluctant to pontificate on the fate of my homeland. Yet it is a sight to behold: an establishment seemingly bent on self-destruction, clinging to an incontinent immigration system and an almost devotional attachment to international and human rights laws that disadvantage its own citizens. The Epping hotel protests — complete with the Home Office’s recourse to legal appeals — illustrate the point. No doubt the legal complexities are real, as David McGrogan rightly pointed out in these pages, but such manoeuvres only pour petrol on an already combustible national mood.
One is left to wonder whether Britain’s Labour Party, now so hopelessly enthralled by socially progressive ideology, will ever rediscover the ability to represent anything resembling national sentiment — or whether it will, like the Conservatives, simply perfect the art of political self-evisceration.
On Civil Strife and Academic Exile
It should surprise no one that talk of civil strife and even civil war has been in the air for months. Into this debate I enter only on the edges, sitting in the cheap seats, offering a few side notes alongside far more insightful voices.
My former colleague at King’s College London, David Betz, has recently emerged as the primus inter pares in the debate about the possibility of civil war in Britain. Back in early 2019, we co-authored an essay examining the grim prospects for British democracy and the road to internal conflict that already loomed on the horizon.
That essay, The British Road to Dirty War, explored the hollowing out of British democratic institutions — a long-running process that had by then left politics little more than a façade. The Brexit psychodrama exposed the extent of the rot. The political class, determined to thwart the referendum result, behaved with a deranged mixture of denial and contempt for the electorate. We saw in this not merely a passing convulsion but the symptom of a chronic condition — one destined, sooner or later, to end badly, Brexit or no Brexit.
For me, the article was merely the latest offence in a long career of thought criminality — though until then I had usually managed to get away with it, courtesy of the last tattered vestiges of pluralism in British universities. This time was different. The arraignment came swiftly. Confronted with unwelcome facts, several so-called colleagues — fluent in sanctimony, illiterate in reality — filed their denunciations, East German–style. Readers may recall that I recounted the episode in the Daily Sceptic under the title ‘What I Learned from My College Stasi File‘.
This was, in the end, the proximate cause of my ousting as head of the Department of War Studies and my departure for Australia. Yet distance brings a certain clarity. It exposed, with brutal simplicity, not just the barren and increasingly authoritarian nature of British higher education, but the slow unravelling of a once-settled nation — methodically dismantling the very foundations on which its stability once rested.
Enter the Civil Wars Debate
Viewing Britain from afar is sobering: the decline of a nation under the stewardship of its self-anointed managerial and political elite — a class long sustained by illusions of mastery, even as the evidence mounts to the contrary. Into this breach, David Betz took up the ‘civil wars’ thesis and carried it forward. He did the heavy lifting: assembling the scholarly scaffolding, laying out the nuts and bolts of the argument, and presenting it with a careful authority that is both brave and necessary. His work is rightly receiving the attention it deserves, recognition for both intellectual rigour and the courage to say what the political classes would prefer unsaid.
The prospect of civil conflict is no longer whispered in private but debated openly. This is a healthy development. Britain and Europe are grappling with the results of elite overreach — economic stagnation, political paralysis, social fragmentation — and the question is no longer whether such conditions exist, but what their long-term trajectory will be. Far better, then, that the discussion takes place in public than festers underground, smothered by nervous institutions. Thanks to outlets such as the excellent Military Strategy Magazine and the unruly but indispensable independent podcasters, the necessary debate has been given air and light.
More recently, James Alexander has added his voice in the Daily Sceptic, drawing a distinction between the writings of David Betz and those of David A. Hughes. He discerns a contrast between what he sees as Betz’s view — that the country is stumbling toward civil war through elite incompetence and mismanagement — and Hughes’s contention that the road to conflict is intentional, a deliberate course imposed upon society.
I confess I have not yet encountered Hughes’s work, but Alexander suggests he is among the vanishingly small number of truly dissenting academics. If so, that alone marks him out as worth reading: in the present climate, dissent is the rarest form of intellectual courage.
On Dichotomies and Deliberate Designs
Alexander’s treatment is thoughtful and nuanced, and he is right to insist that both vantage points deserve consideration, particularly Hughes’s radical reframing of political reality. Yet his depiction of the dichotomy is flawed. To suggest that Betz’s survival within academia implies he is not fundamentally challenging its ideology is, frankly, a misreading. Survival in that system is not comfort or acceptance; it is endurance at the margins. David and I both narrowly survived our purging after publishing ‘The British Road to Dirty War’. In my case, ‘survival’ amounted to a kind of neo-transportation — admittedly more gilded than the original, but no less real for that.
Nor is it accurate to claim that Betz merely observes elites ignoring the breakdown of civilisation while Hughes contends they actively intend it. That is too neat, too binary. Having written extensively with David Betz, I can say our position has never been that elites are simply incompetent — though many, of course, demonstrably are. Rather, their actions form a discernible pattern, and patterns imply purpose. Whether or not the chaos we now endure is consciously engineered at every turn is almost beside the point: the consequences are here, and we must all live with them.
The record of intentionality, in fact, is undeniable. Under Tony Blair, the Labour government pursued a policy of demographic transformation. As Andrew Neather — then a speechwriter and adviser to Blair — acknowledged in the Evening Standard in 2009, that immigration policy was shaped in part by the desire “to rub the Right’s nose in diversity“. That was no accident, no bureaucratic mishap. It was an explicit goal, and its consequences are now written across Britain’s social fabric. Likewise, the current Labour leadership under Sir Keir Starmer operates from a post-nationalist outlook, one that treats the very idea of nationhood as negotiable, even alien, to the political class.
David and I set out this argument in 2020 in a short article, ‘Empires of “Progress”‘, where we identified a clear elite strategy of re-importing techniques of imperial governance into the domestic realm. The aim was to rule by division: to fracture society into communities, reward loyal in-groups and discriminate against the majority through a two-tier system of justice, policing and social policy. In other words, to adapt the colonial logic of ‘divide and rule’ for use at home. This was not incompetence. It was contrivance.
Meet the New Imperialists
Who are these new imperialists? They appear under fresh guises — ‘diversity coordinators’, anti-racism activists, curriculum decolonisers, climate campaigners — but their mission is unchanged: to manage society by division. Their worldview is relentlessly categorical: race, religion, identity. Favoured minorities and immigrant groups, often not oppressed in any meaningful sense, are elevated into protected castes, while the majority is relegated to second-class status. This is not progress; it is imperial management in modern dress. Like their predecessors, they are buoyed by moral certainty and a conviction of their right to rule.
Meet the new imperialists: same as the old imperialists.
Western societies have not, therefore, polarised by chance. A movement — most visible on the progressive Left — embraces a radical perspectivism that seeks to manufacture conflict and destabilise once-stable societies. This is no startling discovery. Peter Collier and David Horowitz documented it decades ago: the student radicals of the 1960s sought revolution, not reform. They demanded constitutional rights even as they denounced the constitutional order, exploiting democracy’s tolerance to undermine it. When they tired of being outsiders, they burrowed into the institutions — universities, bureaucracies — and entrenched themselves. It was, as Collier and Horowitz observed, a deeply cynical strategy: use democracy’s freedoms to dissolve democracy itself.
Today, with the maturation of the boomer generation, those same radicals — or their intellectual heirs — occupy positions of power. They are the imperial managers of our age. To call this the product of bumbling incompetence is naïve. It was strategy, not accident.
Where it may yet unravel is in the arrogance of the new imperium. They imagine themselves clever enough — and the public credulous enough — that such policies can be pursued without provoking resistance. But arrogance is no substitute for foresight. Once matters tip into open conflict, escalation takes on its own momentum. Anger is already stirring — and anger, once roused, is the fuse of history.
The Shadow of Dirty War
How this will ultimately unfold is impossible to foresee. In our first exploration of this terrain, David and I sketched the prospect of Britain’s descent into what we termed dirty war.
Dirty war refers to a pattern of internal repression, most notoriously in Latin America during the 1970s: years of vicious but low-intensity strife in which regimes and insurgents alike turned their weapons on segments of their own people. Such struggles are rarely declared openly, nor bound by convention. They are fought in the shadows. The boundary between combatant and civilian dissolves; violence becomes selective, targeted, concealed.
On the surface, life may appear undisturbed — whole regions untouched. Yet beneath the façade a subterranean struggle rages: militias manipulated, opponents assassinated, hostages taken, clandestine detentions and disappearances. Almost inevitably, this is accompanied by crackdowns on free speech and civil liberties — the indispensable handmaidens of dirty war. To deny that the architecture for such measures is already taking shape in Western democracies, Britain included, is wilful blindness.
Over time, brutality becomes ordinary; the ‘unspeakable’ seeps into common knowledge. Secrets circulate, perpetrators protest innocence, but rumour, testimony and leakage of truth expose what everyone already suspects.
Whether Britain is embarked upon such a path is speculation. Betz has outlined scenarios ranging from an urban-rural clash to targeted strikes on critical infrastructure. These are hypotheses, not predictions. Yet precedent is sobering. Argentina’s dirty war was prefigured by deep fissures within Peronism itself, as conservative and radical factions — most notably the Montoneros — splintered, then unleashed assassination and counter-assassination, spawning death squads that soon engulfed the state.
At present, it is difficult to imagine such violence in Britain, cushioned as it is by democratic traditions and institutional inertia. But ‘difficult to imagine’ is not the same as ‘impossible’. Already the taste for direct action is evident in extreme-Left circles, and politically motivated violence has re-emerged across the Atlantic. In North America, radicals steeped in progressive dogma have attempted to assassinate Presidential candidates, murdered local politicians and carried out school shootings in the name of ideological crusades. To assume Britain is immune to such contagion is to mistake habit for destiny.
On Shifting Ground
If Britain does not slide into a dirty war outright, a more plausible prospect is Balkanisation — or, in the local idiom, Ulsterisation. We need not speculate abstractly: within living memory the United Kingdom has already endured its own version in Northern Ireland.
The signs are visible. The recent flag protests in England reflect a deeper hostility toward the political class, which has systematically negated English self-expression and indulged in a ritual of national self-abnegation that contrasts sharply with the celebration of every other identity. Public spaces are festooned with Pride flags, Palestinian flags, Ukrainian flags — anything, it seems, but the Cross of St George.
The message is unmistakable. The majority population, already disregarded on questions such as immigration, is told that its own symbols of belonging must be hidden, while the emblems of others are to be privileged and extolled. The protests are not simply a reaction to hypocrisy, but the eruption of a resentment long bred by neglect, exclusion and the steady withering of a people’s right to recognise themselves.
And once flags become tribal markers of territory and ideology, they also become precursors of deeper division, escalating tensions, and — if the authorities persist in denying the causes — violence of an infernal kind. Northern Ireland has already shown us where such dynamics lead: bombings, assassinations, even Latin American-style disappearances (this time carried out not by the state but by the IRA and other republican groups).
Let us assume, for the moment, that Britain is still some way off from such an outcome, and that the system retains just enough vitality to adapt, however fitfully, to the popular will. Even so, faith in system stability — the belief that traditions of peaceful, constitutional change can mediate deep divisions — has been badly undermined. That corrosion has been accelerated, intentionally, by the outsourcing of sovereignty to supranational bodies: human rights courts, international bureaucracies, institutions whose rulings dilute and often override domestic consent.
Of course, political commentary is littered with failed prophecies, and one should resist the temptation to indulge in historical clairvoyance. History rarely moves in straight lines; contingency rules. As with earthquakes, we cannot predict the exact timing of the rupture. What we can do — what Betz and others are attempting to do — is map the tectonics.
And Britain’s political ground is not solid rock. It is fault lines all the way down.
END
EU/ECB
ECB Prepares For Europe’s Next Sovereign Debt Crisis
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Thirteen years ago, Mario Draghi, then President of the European Central Bank, opened the liquidity floodgates to prevent the eurozone from collapsing. Since then, the structural problems have remained unresolved. We are now facing the next chapter of the roughly patched-over debt crisis. It is time for the ECB to prepare its emergency toolkit.
For some time now, a worrying pattern has emerged in global financial markets: long-term government bonds are coming under selling pressure — even those of leading economies such as the U.S., Japan, the U.K., and, to a notable extent, France. As a result, yields are rising, along with the refinancing costs for already heavily indebted nations.
Financial Architecture Severely Damaged
It is the so-called long end of the yield curve that alarms both policymakers and central banks. The stability of global financial architecture rests on the long-term bonds of the U.S., Japan, and the eurozone. Banks, sovereign pension funds, and insurance systems have already paid a heavy toll from the sell-off in this segment. The structure has been severely weakened — and Europe is now facing the next debt crisis.
It can no longer be ignored: long-term government bonds, once considered safe and yielding positive real returns, have lost considerable trust. A look at France’s political turmoil and the decline of the U.K. underscores that escaping the debt spiral — with ever-growing annual deficits and collapsing social systems in an aging, migration-stressed European society — seems highly unrealistic.
The consequence: anyone not legally obligated to hold these securities is offloading them, fleeing to so-called safe havens such as precious metals or cash, often in U.S. dollars or Swiss francs — a tried-and-true pattern when times get tough.
Europe in the Crosshairs
While the yield on ten-year UK government bonds rose above 5.7% on Tuesday afternoon — the highest since 2009 — the crisis in France is intensifying dramatically. On September 8, a confidence vote on Prime Minister François Bayrou’s austerity budget is expected to fail. The country faces political chaos and a planned general strike, which, following the sad tradition of this fragmented, migration-impacted society, is likely to erupt into violent street clashes in the Banlieues.
France has long become an ungovernable state, now at risk of being the starting point for the next eurozone debt crisis.
Dark clouds are gathering over Europe — and Germany will not be spared. Once praised for its conservative fiscal policy, the country has opened the door to severe market disruptions with a trillion-euro debt program. If Germany sacrifices its creditworthiness just to buy time and a temporary fix for its social system crisis, it will drag down its EU partners. Since the start of the monetary union, markets have intertwined the community’s creditworthiness with that of Germany.
None of Europe’s crises — neither overregulation, the energy crisis, nor migration chaos — has ever been effectively controlled. The continent now stands exposed to the next debt crisis.
ECB in Action
The next debt crisis is likely to follow the pattern of its predecessor 15 years ago: contagion spreading from country to country, each tested by waves of bond sell-offs on stability and resilience. What may originate in France will eventually reach Germany via the heavily indebted southern European states. The question is: can the ECB stabilize the situation, as it did with its emergency toolkit back then?
Every sovereign debt crisis is also a banking crisis. A significant portion of government bonds is held on commercial banks’ balance sheets — and a sharp drop in market value risks dangerous over-indebtedness across the financial sector. To mitigate this, the ECB has developed an arsenal of liquidity and stabilization measures, forming the core of its emergency toolkit. These include LTROs (Long-Term Refinancing Operations) and TLTROs (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations), which provide banks with long-term, low-interest loans to ensure liquidity and maintain credit flow to businesses and households.
Highly Leveraged Fiat Credit
There is also Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), a kind of safety valve for institutions under acute pressure, usually collateralized by government bonds or other so-called “high-quality assets.” The toolkit is complemented by forward guidance and interest rate policy, aimed at steering expectations and stabilizing interest rate markets — often more psychologically than materially.
Here lies a central flaw and logical inconsistency in central banking: the very assets deemed “high-quality” contributed to the crisis. Highly leveraged, virtually unsecured fiat credit — without backing in gold or energy — has turned the financial system into a Ponzi-like structure, inevitably driving massive credit expansion.
This context also includes Germany’s massive debt program and, according to EU policymakers, the ongoing proxy war in Ukraine. If the credit tap falters, the house of cards collapses.
Focus on Interest Rate Manipulation
The ECB’s main focus remains the stabilization of government bond markets — the sector most vulnerable in a crisis. Deeply entwined with the EU power center in Brussels, the central bank acts almost as a liquidity department. When panic strikes the bond market, it will start manipulating yields and clearing the market, as it did 15 years ago.
Emergency programs include the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), which buys government bonds to increase liquidity, and Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), activated only if affected countries commit to reforms. Newly introduced is the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which allows the ECB to buy bonds to reduce excessive yield differences between member states and ensure monetary transmission. This instrument operates largely clandestinely: market interventions are not always immediately visible and may be carried out gradually, even via proxy actors, to avoid market panic.
The ECB’s policy can be summarized simply: ahead of the looming debt collapse, its task is to manipulate the entire yield curve downward to maintain the illusion of controlled public debt — and to prevent private investors from panicking. The persistent operation of the ECB is evident in the yield corridors that long-term government bonds have followed for some time.
Transparency? Virtually nonexistent. Backroom dealings between the ECB and major capital pools are routine. Markets are actively managed and manipulated — the free market and the disciplining force of rising interest rates (bond vigilantes) are long gone.
Emergency Patches and Soothing Pills
Ultimately, the names of ECB instruments are irrelevant. Their core function is to smooth short-term market fluctuations and provide policymakers with repeated room to maneuver for an ever-expanding state. The ECB itself has become a malignant force within the euro system: market-based reforms are impossible as long as policymakers can rely on its backstop — whether for green climate agendas, military build-ups, or other dubious projects.
The EU Commission and ECB aim to establish a unified debt mechanism, consolidate national debts under the commission’s umbrella, and integrate the ECB as a liquidity pool to stabilize markets. Europe is thus steering toward centralized socialism, with the ECB as a key enabler.
In a systemic crisis, the eurozone’s main pillars — France, Italy, and Germany — would be drawn into the downward spiral. It would be naive to believe that the situation could be stabilized solely through ECB credit injections and short-term liquidity measures.
END
EUROPE
where onearth will the money come from?
Europe Faces $1 Trillion Rearmament Bill As Washington Weighs Troop Cuts
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,
- The IISS warns Europe faces gaps in air defense, long-range missiles, and intelligence that could cost up to $1 trillion to address.
- A U.S. defense review may cut American troop presence in Europe by up to 30%, shifting focus to Asia-Pacific.
- European leaders are pledging billions in new defense spending but struggle with slow procurement, recruitment shortages, and strained budgets.
European nations could face a trillion-dollar rearmament bill in the face of a looming Russian threat and an imminent US defense review that could see Washington dramatically draw down forces on the continent, according to a report released on September 3.
The 106-page report, by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), points to gaps across the board: in production, intelligence, and military hardware such as long-range missiles or air and missile defense.
“Chief among the reasons for this greater urgency are Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the United States’ commitment to defending European allies,” it says.
“While strategic assessments vary across European nations about how quickly Russian forces could constitute a direct threat to NATO Europe, their time frames generally range between two and five years.”
Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s Global Force Posture Review is expected to be published this month and lay out a shift in military resources from Europe to Asia/Pacific.
“Some NATO officials believe a US troops reduction of up to 30 percent could be possible,” says the report, entitled Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defense: An Assessment.
Rising Military Budgets
European leaders have made plans this year to respond to these challenges. In March, a European Union summit pledged to spend billions on defense amid what EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “a watershed moment for Europe.”
EU-backed loans of up to 150 billion euros (160 billion dollars) have been made available to member states to beef up their forces, and Eurozone debt rules have been relaxed when applied to military spending.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized European NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and relying too heavily on US military power. But he has recently praised them for pledging to spend more, particularly after the NATO summit in June when members agreed to raise defense budgets to 5 percent of GDP.
But the IISS report notes that it’s not just a question of money. A key problem will be building capacity.
“Europe’s defense industries continue to face challenges in increasing production fast enough, while many European armies cannot meet their recruitment and retention targets,” it says.
The IISS report underlines Integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) as an area where Europe is particularly vulnerable. Current and serving US military commanders have also told RFE/RL that Europe’s aerial shield is not prepared to meet the scale of the threat from Russia.
“You see what has happened in big cities in Ukraine. This also would happen in some of the big cities of Europe,” Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme commander in Europe, told RFE/RL in April.
Long-Range Missiles
Another weakness highlighted in the IISS report is in long-range missiles.
European countries do have highly effective air-launched cruise missiles, such as the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, or Germany’s Taurus system. Non-NATO member Ukraine has recently showcased its new Flamingo cruise missiles.
But “only a handful of European allies currently possess ground-based long-range precision-fire systems, while in the maritime domain, only France and the UK hold 1,000-kilometer-range naval land-attack cruise missiles,” says the report.
“The European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) project is potentially the most significant European effort to extend its conventional land-attack capability up to and perhaps beyond 2,000 km,” it adds.
The project, launched by France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, was later joined by Britain, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
Other weaknesses noted include a lack of surveillance and intelligence aircraft, “sovereign hyperscale cloud-computing capacity,” and slow, uncoordinated procurement.
The spending requirements come as European governments are already facing intense pressures on non-military spending in sensitive areas such as health, education, and social benefits.
Meeting these challenges will, the report concludes, “require many NATO European allies to take major financial risks and make very difficult political decisions.”
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Hamas reiterates readiness for a full deal; Katz decries statement as empty words
Defense Minister Israel Katz denounced the terror group’s claims as “empty words,” adding that it must choose between accepting Israel’s terms or increased IDF activity in the Gaza Strip.
An illustrative photo of Hamas terrorists with hostage demonstrations in the background.(photo credit: MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images, Reuters/Hatem Khaled)ByAMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSSEPTEMBER 3, 2025 22:37Updated: SEPTEMBER 4, 2025 00:03
Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday denounced Hamas’s reiteration of its claim of readiness for a comprehensive deal involving the release of hostages in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners.
The Prime Minister’s office said in response that Hamas’s statement was another attempt to “spin” the situation and reasserted that the war wouldn’t end without the release of all hostages, the disarmament of the terror group, the establishment of a civilian-led government in the Palestinian enclave and Israeli security control in Gaza.
“Hamas continues to deceive and issue empty words, but it will soon understand that it must choose between two options,” Katz said.
“Accepting Israel’s conditions to end the war, first and foremost, the release of all hostages and disarmament, or Gaza City will become like Rafah and Beit Hanun. The IDF is fully prepared,” he added.
This follows the terror group reiterating its claims that it is ready for a comprehensive Gaza deal through which all Israeli hostages are released in exchange for the release of an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, the terror group announced on Wednesday evening.
The group’s remarks come shortly after US President Donald Trump called on Hamas to release all 20 living hostages.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said, “The Israeli government does not have to accept Hamas’s conditions, it does have to return to negotiations immediately and try to close a deal. It is impossible not to even try to bring our hostages home.”
Informed sources told the Post that “behind the scenes, the US is making efforts to try and resume the hostage deal talks.
The source added, “Hamas’s statement tonight can be seen as a response to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s demand for a comprehensive deal, indicating the opening positions of both sides.”
The future of the Gaza Strip
Palestinian-American Bishara Bahbah, who us involved in the hostage deal negotiations, said in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya channel: “I reached out to Hamas with a proposal for the release of all hostages and shared it with them prior to President Trump’s most recent tweet. Hamas questioned the proposal’s credibility. Israelis believe that Netanyahu will not agree to any deal without significant US pressure.”
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IDF Moves Deeper Into Gaza City, Won’t Stop Until ‘Hamas Totally Defeated’
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Israel’s military (IDF) on Wednesday plunged deeper into Gaza City, after the day prior IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that the offensive to conquer the Strip’s largest city is underway, as tens of thousands of additional Israeli reservists began to report for duty for the operation.
“We are going to increase and enhance the strikes of our operation, and that is why we called you,” Zamir announced from Nachshonim military base in central Israel. “We have already begun the ground operation in Gaza [City].”
“We will not stop the war until we defeat this enemy,” he emphasized, in line with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s priory of inflicting a total military defeat on the Islamist group behind the Oct.7, 2023 terror attack.
Soldiers and tanks were spotted pushing into Sheikh Radwan, one of the urban center’s largest and most crowded neighborhoods, on Wednesday – with so far at least 24 Palestinians, some of them children, reported killed across the Gaza Strip.
For nearly two years there have been sprawling tent encampments on the edges of and within Gaza city, housing thousands of displaced, and these have been destroyed in the fresh military assault.
Addressing reservists at Nachshonim base, Zamir continued his his speech, “Hamas will have no place to hide from us. Wherever we locate them, whether they are senior or junior figures – we strike them all, all the time.”
He described, “We have already begun the Gaza maneuver. We are already entering places we have never entered before and operating there with courage, strength, valor, and an extraordinary spirit.”
The Gaza City assault is expected to worsen the Strip’s already horrific internal refugee crisis and food crisis, after the UN and various monitoring groups have confirmed famine in some sectors. Dozens if not hundreds of civilians have already died of starvation.
Interestingly, amid anti-Netanyahu protests in major cities and even near his personal residence, some Israeli reservists are revolting, intentionally failing to report for duty. Haaretz reported that some 350 Israeli reservists signed a statement opposing the takeover of Gaza City and renewed military assault there.
“The decision to launch a military operation for the complete occupation of Gaza City is blatantly illegal and will put hostages, soldiers and civilians at risk,” said Ron Feiner, a reservist and member of the organization Soldiers for the Hostages, as cited in Israeli media. “If we are called up for reserve duty, we will not report.”
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF reveals footage of Hamas’s Rafah Brigade dining lavishly underground
While “residents of the sector were forced to break their Ramadan fast with the scraps left by Hamas, the organization’s leaders were celebrating in the tunnels with a grand feast,” Adraee said.
IDF SOLDIERS walk out of a tunnel underneath the European Hospital in Khan Yunis, in the Gaza Strip, last month. Israel will continue to strike fiercely against enemy strongholds from Khan Yunis to Isfahan, states the writer.(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)ByPESACH BENSON/TPSSEPTEMBER 4, 2025 16:03Updated: SEPTEMBER 4, 2025 17:53
The IDF on Thursday published photos showing Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Muhammad Shabana dining underground with fellow operatives in March, weeks before he was killed in a targeted strike in Khan Yunis.
According to the IDF, the images were recovered at the site of the May 13 airstrike that eliminated Shabana and senior Hamas figure Mohammed Sinwar beneath Gaza’s European Hospital. They depict Shabana and other operatives enjoying a Ramadan iftar meal inside a tunnel, with platters of falafel, grilled meats, fish, vegetables, flatbreads, and fried foods. Additional photos show him eating with his family during the past year.
“Luxurious breakfast and lavish meals during the war: This is what the life of the terrorist commander of Hamas’ Rafah Brigade looked like over the past year,” wrote Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson, on X.
He added that while “residents of the sector were forced to break their Ramadan fast with the scraps left by Hamas, the organization’s leaders were celebrating in the tunnels with a grand feast.”
Adraee further accused Hamas of manipulating public opinion. “With one hand, Hamas runs a media campaign about ‘starvation’ in the sector, and with the other, it plunders food to feed its leaders and their families. Time and again—the images, unlike Hamas and its mouthpieces in the media, do not lie,” he said.
Shabana, who took command of the Rafah Brigade during the 2014 Gaza war after the killing of three senior commanders, oversaw four battalions, including the Nukhba unit that spearheaded the October 7 massacre in southern Israel. He had previously survived multiple assassination attempts, including during the IDF’s ground operation in Rafah.
His death came in a complex strike involving more than 50 precision munitions dropped in under 30 seconds, designed to destroy Hamas’ underground command site without disrupting the hospital above. Israel confirmed the deaths of Shabana and Sinwar three weeks after the operation.
Study by Israeli academics argues claims of genocide in Gaza based on flawed data
The release of the photos came one day after a study conducted by Israeli academics argued that claims of genocide in Gaza are based on flawed data and ultimately undermine international law.
The report, released by Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said, “Those who accuse Israel of genocide erroneously suggest that most civilian casualties in Gaza were entirely unjustified from a military standpoint, portraying those cases in which deaths do seem unjustified not as outliers but as part of a broader, systematic, and deliberate policy of extermination by the IDF. The small number of instances involving persuasive supportive evidence of intentional killings by military personnel does not support this accusation.”
The researchers extensively examined Hamas tactics, arguing that the group “consistently employs Gazan civilians as ‘human shields’ to deliberately increase casualties and, in turn, amplify international pressure on Israel.” They described Hamas’s tunnel network as spanning “over 500 kilometers and includ[ing] 5,700 connective shafts, all integrated into the civilian infrastructure of the Gaza Strip.”
Hamas and criminal gangs associated with it hijacked 85% of all the trucks entering the Strip with food, water, medicine, and other humanitarian items. TPS-IL learned that Hamas granted distribution lines to these groups to ensure that humanitarian aid exclusively reaches Hamas. In return, these gangs receive money, food, and vouchers. Hamas also pays these gangs $10,000 a month to maintain checkpoints.
Approximately 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 48 remaining hostages, about 20 are believed to be alive.
ISRAEL/USA/WEST BANK
White House Would Greenlight West Bank Annexation By Israel, Officials Claim
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Axios’ global affairs correspondent Barak Ravid has cited Israeli officials who say that the White House is ready to greenlight a Netanyahu-ordered seizure of West Bank Palestinian territory.
“Rubio has signaled to Israeli officials in private meetings that he does not oppose Israel’s West Bank annexations and that the Trump administration will not stand in the way,” writes Ravid.
If accurate, or if this scenario comes to fruition it would be a definitive death knell for any future state of Palestine or for a two-state solution, the latter which happens to still be Washington de facto policy, and stretching back historically across several administrations.
Despite occasional protestations from Trump over the ratcheting hunger crisis, or high civilian death toll, the US administration has really done nothing of significant pressure or with teeth to thwart the overwhelmingly destructive Gaza offensive by Israel’s military.
The White House has also said nothing, even in terms of caution, concerning to new Netanyahu-ordered offensive which will see ground forces try to take over Gaza City.
President Trump only put the following message out Wednesday on Truth Social: “Tell Hamas to IMMEDIATELY give back all 20 Hostages (Not 2 or 5 or 7!), and things will change rapidly. IT WILL END!”
Essentially he’s standing by Netanyahu, who has stated time and again that the war will carry on until it ends with the complete eradication of Hamas, and to ensure it can never return to rule the Strip again.
If there is Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which has long been recognized by the UN and even the US as ‘occupied’ Palestinian territories, the unraveling of the Abraham Accords would surely follow. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is in charge of the Gaza Strip, and is actually a political rival to Hamas.
The UAE, for example, has already declared that this would be a ‘red line’ concerning its recently restored relations (in 2020) with Israel.
But here’s how Axios frames the situation: “Israel is considering annexing large portions of the West Bank later this month in response to the recognition of a Palestinian state by several western countries. President Trump is likely the only foreign player who could stop it.”
Indeed this is the case, but he’s as yet unwilling to use the key leverage over Israel that the US possesses, and has had for a long, long time: money and weapons. Israel’s military is propped up by US military hardware and ordinance, and this relationship is not going away anytime soon – especially not under Trump’s watch – who long enjoyed massive contributions from the likes of the Adelson family and AIPAC.
end
THE WEST BANK
a history lesson:
Respectful Israel Conversation ·
If “West Bank” doesn’t belong to Israel, then to whom does it belong, and why?
It belonged to the Ottoman Empire. Now it is disputed.
When the Ottoman Empire ceased to exist, Britain took control of it but did not claim ownership. it was one of several “mandates” , captured Ottoman land that the allied powers were going to break up into new countries and assign governments to. Many middle Eastern countries today were carved out of those mandates.
It was decided that the Palestine Mandate would include a Jewish state. Meanwhile the largest part, east of the Jordan river, was split off and became an Arab state, Trans Jordan, later Jordan.
Arabs objected to all the remainder becoming a Jewish state so it was decided to divide it, creating a Jewish state and an Arab state and having Jerusalem handled as an international territory. There were numerous proposals for how to divide it up. At that time, the majority of the land was not privately owned, but was state land.
The last proposal was in the late 30s, to create two states. Jews accepted the proposal. Arabs refused.
Jews revolted against the British and helped convince them that maintaining control of the territory was not in their best interest. They then declared a Jewish state, Israel, in the borders that had been proposed, leaving Judea, Samaria, and Gaza unclaimed.
An alliance of Arab countries attacked Israel with the intent to destroy it. In that war, Jordan took control of the West Bank and Samaria. Egypt took control of Gaza.
In 1967 Israel was attacked again, and when the dust settled from that war it had control of the Sinai, Gaza, Judea, Samaria, and Golan. Later it annexed Golan and East Jerusalem, making them officially parts of Israel. People living there were offered citizenship.. It arranged for Jordan to control the Temple Mount.
When it made a peace treaty with Egypt it returned the Sinai. The possibility of returning Gaza to Egyptian rule was discussed but Egypt did not want it.
Later when it signed a peace treaty with Jordan, a similar discussion was had regarding the “West Bank”, the name Jordan had given to Judea and Samaria, but Jordan did not want it.
So Gaza, Judea, and Samaria were now technically controlled by Israel, but were not part of any existing country. They were called “disputed territories”. They await an agreement that will establish an independent state there.
In the 60s, Yassar Arafat popularized the label “occupied” for those lands, implying the existence of an independent state before the founding of Israel. But there had not been an independent state there for over 2000 years. Empire after empire had controlled Palestine as part of their own territory. The label does apply, though, as a reference to Israel having citizens living in a territory that is not officially part of Israel.
TLDR: the West Bank is not part of any existing country. It is controlled by Israel.
end
.
ISRAEL VS IRAN/.USA
Trump Bluntly Explains The US Bombed Iran For Israel
Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
President Trump said in an interview published on Tuesday that no one has done more for the state of Israel than himself and cited his recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as an example.
“So, Israel is amazing, because, you know, I have good support from Israel,” the president told the Daily Caller. “Look, nobody has done more for Israel than I have, including the recent attacks with Iran, wiping that thing out. We, that plane, wiped them out like nobody ever saw before.”
Trump made the comments when asked if he was worried about the growing skepticism among young Republicans when it comes to the US relationship with Israel, and he noted the Israel lobby’s control over Congress, saying it has waned in recent years.
“But when, if you go back 20 years. I mean, I will tell you, Israel had the strongest lobby in Congress of anything or body, or of any company or corporation or state that I’ve ever seen. Israel was the strongest. Today, it doesn’t have that strong a lobby. It’s amazing,” Trump said.
“There was a time where you couldn’t speak bad, if you wanted to be a politician, you couldn’t speak badly. But today, you have, you know, AOC plus three, and you have all these lunatics, and they’ve really, they’ve changed it,” he added.
The criticism of Israel among a small number of members of Congress is no longer limited to Democrats, as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who is considered a strong supporter of President Trump, has recently come out strongly against Israel’s campaign in Gaza and became the first Republican in Congress to label it a genocide. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is also known for his opposition to US aid to Israel and the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC.
“Israel, you would understand this very much, Israel was the strongest lobby I’ve ever seen. They had total control over Congress, and now they don’t, you know, I’m a little surprised to see that,” Trump said.
The president, who is strongly backing Israel’s assault in Gaza, said the military campaign is not good for Israel’s public image. “They may be winning the war, but they’re not winning the world of public relations, you know, and it is hurting them. But Israel was the strongest lobby 15 years ago that there has ever been, and now it’s, it’s been hurt, especially in Congress,” he said.
Trump made similar comments while on the campaign trail last year, both about the Israel lobby and Israel’s public image being damaged by the destruction of Gaza. “Some 15 years ago, Israel had the strongest lobby. If you were a politician, you couldn’t say anything bad about Israel, that would be like the end of your political career. Today, it’s almost the opposite,” he told Israel Hayom in March 2024.
end
Iranians ex pat/Israel
Iranian delegation meets Innovation Minister Gamliel to discuss ‘day after’ in Iran, water crisis
“We carry a message of peace, friendship, and solidarity at this hard time,” said Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad, an Iranian economist leading the seven-member delegation.
Innovation, Science and Technology Minister Gila Gamliel hosts a delegation of exiled Iranian researchers representing Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi at the “Beyond the Horizon” 2025 conference in the presence of President Isaac Herzog.(photo credit: Courtesy Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 4, 2025 20:03
A high-level Iranian opposition delegation sent by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi met with the Innovation, Science, and Technology Minister Gila Gamliel this week to discuss plans for a post-Islamic Republic Iran, as well as a resolution to Iran’s ongoing water crisis.
“The moment will come when the Iranian people will decide on their fate, and we will be here for them,” Gamliel stated.
Gamliel thanked “the amazing delegation that came here today in order to come and receive and learn all the technologies and all the developments and to really prepare Iran for the next day.”
JPost Videos
“We carry a message of peace, friendship, and solidarity at this hard time,” said Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad, an Iranian economist leading the seven-member delegation.
“Our group of Iranian economists and scientists is here to continue [maintaining the bond between Israel and Iran] at a time when the regime in Tehran has created a severe water crisis, electricity shortage, and a collapsing economy.”
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3945466&url=www.jpost.comIranian opposition delegation meets with Innovation, Science and Technology Minister Gila Gamliel, September 4, 2025. (CREDIT: Innovation, Science and Technology Minister)He continued, stating that the delegation was in Israel “planting the seeds of the Cyrus Accords.
“My colleagues here, along with other experts, have produced a blueprint for Iran’s rebirth called the Iran Prosperity Project. We are part of that effort to learn from Israeli scientists and plant the seeds of future cooperation between our two nations.”
The Cyrus Accords and the Iran Prosperity Project
The delegation’s mission centers on the “Cyrus Accords,” a vision for comprehensive Iranian-Israeli cooperation named after the ancient Persian king who liberated the Jews from Babylonian exile 2,500 years ago.
The visit marks a significant development in Iranian opposition outreach to Israel, following Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s historic visit to the Jewish state two years ago.
The Iran Prosperity Project, which involves more than 100 advisors and experts working to revitalize Iran’s economic and political future, has published a 170-page emergency reconstruction plan covering 15 critical areas, from political transition and security reforms to technical challenges, including energy, water management, and environmental restoration.
Alex Winston contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
This is crazy!! Ukraine must be a buffer zone between Russia and the rest of Europe!
(zerohedge)
Kremlin Blasts ‘Unacceptable’ Western Plan For Ukraine Security Guarantees
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 09:30 AM
After earlier this week European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen boasted to The Financial Times that the European Union had “pretty precise plans” for deploying a multinational force to Ukraine, and which is backstopped by the Untied States, the Kremlin has made clear it has flatly rejected such a prospect.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that Moscow would not even discuss or entertain in any way deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine as part of a future peace deal. There will be no international post-conflict security force “in any format” – she made clear.
“Russia is not going to discuss the fundamentally unacceptable and security-undermining foreign intervention in Ukraine in any form, in any format,” Zakharova told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
Suggesting that it’s entirely a waste of time for the West to be talking about such a topic, she said “next time they aim to discuss this topic, they should have a pointer in the form of Russia’s position.”
“Judging by Ukraine’s losses, the European Commission has simply outdone itself,” Zakharova added, at a moment Russia’s ground forces continue to make gains in the east, and even into the more central Dnipropetrovsk region.
And yet Europe is still forging ahead, with French President Emmanuel Macron hosting a summit of European leaders on Thursday. He declared, “We are ready, we the Europeans, to offer the security guarantees to Ukraine and Ukrainians the day that a peace (accord) is signed.”
He called details of guarantees “extremely confidential” but indicated that the preparations had been complete. Various allied defense ministers will take up the issue in the Paris meeting on Thursday. But confidential or not, Russia has clearly already rejected whatever multinational force plan that the Western allies have on the table.
Moscow has consistently made clear its position, stretching back months or even over the last year, but this doesn’t seem to have gotten through to Western capitals.
President Putin while speaking from Beijing Wednesday, after observing Xi’s big military parade along with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, didn’t sound like he’s in a hurry to make compromises at the negotiating table.
He painted a picture of his troops having the clear battlefield momentum and upper-hand, describing that “Ukrainian combat-ready units are staffed at no more than 47-48%,” in a speech. “Ukrainian military is constantly forced to redeploy units from one part of the front, to another,” he said.
That’s when he underscored that if the Ukraine conflict “cannot be resolved peacefully, Russia will be forced to achieve its objectives by military means.”
He did say that “If Zelensky is interested in meeting, let him come to Moscow” – but that such a meeting can only happen once clear understandings are reached, and if something substantial can be agreed up, and not just for the sake of optics or having a meeting just to have it.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Despite Von Der Leyen Story Unraveling, Russia Accused Of Widespread GPS Jamming Over Baltic Sea
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 02:20 PM
Swedish authorities on Thursday have alleged that Russia is behind a sharp rise in GPS interference over the Baltic Sea which has increasingly impacted aviation, creating a potentially dangerous situation for civilian travel in the region.
The Swedish Transport Agency announced a surge incidents involving disruptions to global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), such as GPS. It issued a figure of just 55 cases in 2023 to 733 so far this year.
“We’ve conducted long-term analyses and gathered extensive data. Our conclusion is that the interference originates from Russian territory,” the agency’s head of aviation, Andreas Holmgren, was cited in AFP as saying.
“This poses a serious threat to civil aviation, especially considering the scale, duration, and nature of the interference,” Holmgren added.
The Swedish agencies pointed to jamming and spoofing techniques – the latter which involves sending false location data. Media reports say the incidents were initially limited to the Scandinavian country’s eastern airspace over international waters, but now the interference has become broader.
These new major allegations come after Russia has vehemently denied it engaged in GPS jamming of a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as it prepared to land in Bulgaria on Sunday:
Bulgarian officials have denied claims they suspected Moscow of jamming the GPS of a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, days after the Commission cited Bulgarian authorities as suggesting the incident was “due to blatant interference from Russia.”
The country’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told parliament on Thursday that von der Leyen’s plane had not experienced “prolonged interference or jamming.”
In a statement made later the same day, Zhelyazkov said that even though no jamming had been detected by “ground instruments,” it didn’t exclude the possibility of “onboard devices” detecting jamming.
EuroNews and others have noted this is a major U-turn on the claims, making the whole episode highly suspect and dubious. The plane landed safely, but EU officials quickly blamed Russia for the alleged interference, and yet days later the whole story seems to be unravelling fast.
Did Von der Leyen and her team just completely fabricate it? The Bulgarian government as of Thursday is denying the entire basis of the claims:
“There is no need to investigate the situation, because these disturbances are neither hybrid nor cyber threats.”
According to the same report, “In an interview with Bulgarian channel bTV, Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Grozdan Karadjov denied that the government had submitted any information on the matter to the European Commission, contradicting the Commission’s assertion that Bulgarian authorities suspected the disruption was the result of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare.”
Don’t expect the mainstream media to be quick to offer corrections or walk-backs…
This could be another case of a media trend that we and others observed starting years ago – how Putin and Russia apparently seek to ‘weaponize everything’ – though most often, evidence for such claims are lacking.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
USA ISSUES
Have fun with this!
‘You’ve Taken $855,000 From Pharmaceutical Companies”: Kennedy Spars With Senators During Wild Testimony
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 03:41 PM
Update (1520ET): Well that was actually pretty interesting. As Democrat Senators read prepared zingers to try and corner RFK Jr. over vaccines and other malarkey, Kennedy hit back with several very specific haymakers during the three-hour session – calling the Democratic lawmakers ‘liars’ – and even pointing out the Elizabeth Warren has taken nearly a million dollars from pharmaceutical companies.
Defiant on CDC Firings
At the center of Thursday’s hearing was Kennedy’s surprise decision last week to fire CDC Director Susan Monarez, just a month after she took the job. The move plunged the agency into turmoil, prompting several senior officials to resign.
Kennedy accused Monarez of lying in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published the same morning, in which she claimed she was removed for refusing to “rubber stamp” vaccine recommendations from Kennedy’s advisory committee.
“We are the sickest country in the world, that’s why we have to fire people at CDC,” Kennedy said.
Kennedy also defended his June purge of 17 members of the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, known as ACIP, framing the move as an effort to “depoliticize” the committee. “I didn’t politicize ACIP, I depoliticized it,” he insisted.
Kennedy also said that that leading medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, were compromised because they accept pharmaceutical industry funding. That prompted an exasperated retort from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT):
“In your eyes, everybody but you is corrupt.”
Pocahontas Down
During one fiery exchange with Senator Elizabeth Warren, Kennedy said ” know you’ve taken $855K from PHARMA COMPANIES, SENATOR!”
.com/JDVance/status/1963651685366333585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1963651685366333585%7Ctwgr%5Edd319807366c71d369573c3f4bb162d8a59dc317%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.
Wyden down too!
Julian Down!
Warning Shot From GOP Leadership
The most striking moment came when Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, warned that Kennedy’s policies risk undermining decades of medical progress. Barrasso, who rarely breaks from his party’s leadership, signaled growing unease within the GOP about Kennedy’s sweeping changes.
“I’ve grown deeply concerned,” Barrasso said, citing both the recent CDC director firing and measles outbreaks. “There are real concerns that safe, proven vaccines like measles, Hepatitis B, and others could be in jeopardy, and that would put Americans at risk and reverse decades of progress.”
Trump’s Role Complicates GOP Strategy
Some Republican senators also sought to drive a wedge between Kennedy and President Trump, highlighting the former president’s past praise of Operation Warp Speed – the 2020 initiative to accelerate vaccine development.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said Trump deserved a Nobel Prize for ramping up vaccine production and criticized Kennedy’s decision to cancel $500 million in federal grants for new mRNA vaccine research.
“Canceling those contracts seems like a commentary upon what the president did in Operation Warp Speed,” Cassidy said.
He warned that Kennedy’s limits on federal vaccine funding are already causing confusion for consumers, noting reports of pharmacies unable to provide COVID-19 boosters due to shifting Health and Human Services recommendations.
“I would say effectively we’re denying people the vaccine,” Cassidy said.
Looking Ahead: CDC Vaccine Recommendations
Several senators pressed Kennedy on upcoming decisions by the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, amid fears that broader vaccine recommendations for childhood diseases could be scaled back.
Kennedy offered few details but sought to reassure lawmakers on one point:
“I do not anticipate a change in measles vaccine recommendations,” he said.
Still, uncertainty lingers over how far Kennedy intends to take his overhaul of federal vaccine policy — and how much support he retains within his own party.
* * *
Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is testifying before the Senate today on the Trump administration’s health agenda – where he’s expected to face questions over a spate of firings and other leadership changes at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
Of note, RFK Jr. moved to fire former CDC Director Susan Monarez, while several top leaders at the agency resigned in protest.
Watch Live:
The rot within the CDC goes back decades, however the most glaring example of their incompetence – or worse, was on full display during the COVID-19 pandemic – when the agency knew as early as October of 2020 that the median Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid was a tiny 0.23% (meaning 99.8% of the population was not under threat).
Instead of focusing their response on those actually at risk – the elderly and the frail, the CDC joined with Democrats to fear monger over “mass deaths in the streets”.
Now, as Kennedy cleans house, the left is losing their minds.
Meanwhile, a CDC advisory committee has launched a review of COVID-19 vaccines, and will review data on the shots related to their safety, effectiveness, and immunogenicity, according to an Aug. 20 document, which was released by the CDC.
Members also plan to look at gaps in existing knowledge “relating to bio distribution, pharmacokinetics, and persistence of the spike protein, mRNA, and lipid nanoparticles to inform immunization recommendations,” the document states.
Studies have found that the spike protein and mRNA in the vaccines persist for some time. Lipid nanoparticles are used to deliver the mRNA.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
The blue COVID surgical face masks, the man-made cloth masks, all of the fake COVID masks never worked & could not work in COVID & CDC, FDA, NIH Fauci et al. all knew this so why is California again
masking up? Have they improved the mask? As far as I know, they have not. The data across decades was clear that the surgical masks were ineffective (& even harmful) against respiratory viruses etc.
| Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 3 |
MASKS BACK ON…
COVID WAVE HITS CALIFORNIA…
‘A COVID wave is washing over California, with the state seeing continued increases in the number of newly confirmed cases and hospitalizations as some officials urged the public to take greater precautions.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The extent of the recent increases has prompted some county-level health officials to recommend that residents once again consider wearing masks in indoor public settings, at least until transmission has declined.
California currently has “high” coronavirus levels in sewage, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And increases are being seen across the Golden State, from Los Angeles County to the San Francisco Bay Area to areas around the state capital.’
COVID wave washes over California. Some officials urge residents to mask up
END
BOOM! LADAPO is on the ball, with DeSantis, moving to ‘end all vaccine mandates in Florida law’; this is a great move, even better than what we are hearing from HHS etc. for this is declarative, a
real action with teeth! Florida is set to end all state vaccine mandates, state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo announced at a news conference Wednesday.’ Also ‘For decades, the state has required
| Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 3 |
numerous vaccines for kids attending school, including shots that protect against Measles-mumps-rubella, polio, chickenpox and Hepatitis B.
But Ladapo on Wednesday compared these mandates to “slavery,” and promised that they all will soon end. He did not immediately provide specifics.’
DeSantis to end ALL vaccine mandates in Florida…all…this will take real bravery, and I applaud Ron if this report is true and Ladapo. This is a developing story.
Ladapo showed us real courage prior standing up against the Malone Bourla Bancel et al. mRNA vaccine when others, even those now leading NIH, FDA etc. fiddle with themselves vacillating and playing word salad ‘political’ games.
END
Breaking! Malone Bourla Bancel Pfizer Moderna et al. mRNA Vaccine-Induced Severe Pneumonitis, a dangerous report out of Japan! a case of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-induced pneumonitis in a male patient
whose cytokine levels were analysed prior to admission. His serum IgE level was high (347 U/mL), and several cytokines were elevated: TNFα was 1.2 pg/mL, IL-6 was 156 pg/mL, and IL-8 was 75.0 pg/mL.
| Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 4 |
pg/mL. The patient developed severe respiratory failure’…
Frank Bergman also reported as published by the seminal LIONESS OF JUDAH Ministry substack (please support and see below).
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘Pre-admission laboratory tests (Table 1) showed a mildly elevated white blood cell count (9200/μL), with neutrophils at 82.1%, lymphocytes at 10.7%, and eosinophils at 0.8%. The serum KL-6 level was normal, but C-reactive protein (CRP) was elevated (11.3 mg/dL). All microbiological and immunological test results were negative.
Cytokine levels from pre-admission serum were analysed (Table 1). IFN-γ, IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-5 levels were within normal range, whereas IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α were elevated (TNF-α: 1.2 pg/mL; IL-6: 156 pg/mL; IL-8: 75.0 pg/mL). IgE was slightly elevated (347 U/mL).’
‘3 Discussion
In this case, the patient developed severe pneumonitis following COVID-19 vaccination, and we evaluated cytokine dynamics during steroid therapy.
Analysis of circulating cytokines revealed markedly elevated IL-8, IL-6, and TNF-α levels. In contrast, IL-5, which plays a key role in allergic eosinophilic inflammation, was not elevated. However, the patient’s IgE level was mildly elevated, suggesting a partial allergic response. Elevated IL-8 has been reported in IgE-mediated lung disease [4], supporting the possibility of an overlapping allergic component.
Meanwhile, IL-6 and IL-8 are also known mediators of systemic inflammation and cell-mediated immune activation. Therefore, we speculate that this patient exhibited a mixed immune reaction—both allergic and inflammatory.’
When will Makary et al. act to stop the mRNA vaccine. The evidence of harm is clear.
Tatsuro Suzuki, Hiromi Furuta, Misa Naganawa, Keiko Hayashi, Hiroko Kiyotoshi, Chiharu Ohta, Shigemitsu Ninomiya
First published: 21 August 2025
A 77-year-old male ex-smoker with a 30-pack-year history was admitted to our hospital with severe respiratory failure. He had no history of chronic interstitial lung disease and allergies. He had received his third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2, Pfizer) 2 days prior. Computed tomography (CT) revealed multiple ground-glass opacities with traction bronchiectasis in both lungs (Figure 1A–C). On admission, his body temperature was 37.4°C, and oxygen saturation was 95% on nasal oxygen at 4 L/min. Significant pathogens were not detected and the quantitative test for COVID-19 antigen was negative (Table 1). Chlamydophila pneumonia IgG and IgA were both positive, but the result indicated past infection (Table 1). His condition deteriorated in the emergency department, with oxygen saturation barely reaching 90% despite 10 L/min oxygen; therefore, invasive mechanical ventilation was initiated, and steroid pulse therapy was administered. As the aetiology of pneumonitis was unclear, antibiotic therapy (pazufloxacin, 1000 mg twice daily) was started under the suspicion of atypical pneumonia. The patient was admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
| EST NEWS: |
| Country Singer Removed from Stage During Concert for Intoxication and ‘Erratic Behavior’ – EVOL |
| Read more… |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
USA/CALIFORNIA GAS
Wary Of Gasoline Shortage, California Pauses Price-Gouging Penalty On Oil Companies
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 10:25 AM
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
California regulators fearing a dramatic drop in gasoline supply placed a five-year pause on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s penalty on oil industry profits Aug. 29.
The decision is a blow to Newsom’s legislation aimed at penalizing the oil industry for allegedly driving up the state’s gas prices in 2022.
California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda said the state must shield motorists from price spikes at the pump even as it tries to transition to clean-energy fuel sources for transportation.
The commission says the pause on its penalty program was needed to further study the industry.
“We believe this additional time will increase industry confidence enough to secure investments in refinery maintenance and is therefore a prudent way to ensure employee safety and maintain a safe, reliable, affordable supply of fuel during this critical point in the transition to a carbon-free transportation system,” a spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email Sept. 2.
California drivers continue to pay the nation’s highest prices at the pump, with the cost exceeding the national average by more than a dollar per gallon, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.
Fuel demand in the state has slowly dwindled since 2019 as more Californians switch to electric vehicles, but the decrease in demand is not fast enough to keep up with even sharper drops in the state’s fuel supply as refineries continue to leave.
The state would need to increase overseas crude imports, possibly creating serious delays in fuel for consumers, which is what prompted staff to propose the regulatory pause, reported Drew Bohan, the energy commission’s executive director.
The agency also hasn’t been able to prove Newsom’s claim that the oil industry was gouging.
“The data at this point is just not sufficient to indicate that there’s ongoing market manipulation, or a structural failure, that would justify immediate regulatory intervention,” Bohan said.
The decision sparked criticism from Consumer Watchdog, a California-based nonprofit that supported Newsom’s price-gouging law in 2023.
“Gov. Newsom and the Energy Commission have abdicated their responsibility to protect consumers from price gouging,” the group’s president, Jamie Court, said in a statement. “By taking away the hammer of a penalty, the administration will leave consumers vulnerable to the same price spikes and profit spikes that struck in 2022. Gov. Newsom will be as much to blame as the oil refiners for the next price spikes because he left this job unfinished.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in the rotunda of the Capitol in Sacramento on March 28, 2023. Courtesy of the Office of Governor Gavin Newsom
The group also believes Newsom’s administration is “tying the hands” of the next governor by imposing the five-year freeze.
Western States Petroleum Association, a trade group advocating for the oil industry, said the commission’s five-year pause was a step in the right direction, but it fell short of the group’s recommendations.
“While today’s action by the CEC stopped short of a full statutory repeal or a 20-year pause, it represents a needed step to provide some certainty for California’s fuels market,” association President Catherine Reheis-Boyd said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.
According to Reheis-Boyd, the decision showed the energy commission understood how the policy would have impacted future investment in the state’s refineries.
Vehicles pass a gas station in Rosemead, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. Frederic J. Brown/AFP
Newsom and Democratic state legislators suspended regular operating rules to rush through the regulations in less than a week in 2023. Those regulations put in place extensive oversight and new reporting regulations for oil companies, and gave the energy commission the authority to issue fines and penalties for excessive profits.
Upon signing the law, Newsom said they proved they could “beat big oil.”
The commission has not approved penalties since the regulations passed.
The commission’s move last week followed months of handwringing by California lawmakers after a second major oil refinery—Texas-based Valero Energy Corp.—announced in April its departure from the state.
Houston-based oil giant Phillips 66 announced last October that it plans to close one of the company’s two Southern California refineries at the end of 2025.
A tank at the Valero Wilmington Oil Refinery adjacent to the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in the Wilmington neighborhood of Los Angeles on April 10, 2025. Patrick T. Fallon / AFP
The closures mean a loss of 17 percent of California’s refining capacity—a huge loss for a state that is mostly cut off from the rest of the nation’s fuel supplies and must import oil from overseas.
The refinery closures will leave more than 20 million gas-fueled vehicles in California with only seven refineries to produce specialized blends required by state regulations.
Beyond the penalty pause, Newsom’s administration is also proposing to temporarily streamline approvals of new wells in existing oil fields in an effort to maintain a stable fuel supply.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
CONRAD BLACK..A GREAT READ!!
8/26/2025|Updated: 8/26/2025
Waving the maple leaf flag around with a lot of Demosthenean hyperbole about defending Canada from imminent American aggression—all electoral campaigning a sophisticated electorate would have seen through—Mark Carney won on a platform that is still officially committed to escalation of Justin Trudeau’s outright declaration of war on the petroleum industry.
The result is that the polls indicate that approximately 30 percent of Albertans would vote to secede from Canada now. This number might presumably decline if Carney, who has been a net-zero emissions champion for decades and partially transformed the Bank of England into a formally dressed flying column of the old Greenpeace movement, reads the polls carefully and informs the climatological faction in his entourage that the climate war they all dreamed of is coming, but not now.
At the same time, Trudeau’s dilution of the Canadian state and promotion of woke absurdity reduced French Quebec’s always tenuous regard for the federal government, which the Quebec nationalists have generally considered a mere buffer zone between the repressed Quebec state and the United States of America. The woke self-abasement of Canada achieved its apogee by lowering its flag everywhere, including embassies abroad, in respect for the supposed negligent deaths of hundreds of native schoolchildren who were deemed to have disappeared and were surreptitiously buried more than 100 years ago, none of which seems actually to have happened.
The extent of the self-inflicted humiliation of Canada on federalist credibility should not be underestimated. The progress of the sovereignty movement in Quebec has doubtless been encouraged by the spectre of an American takeover of Canada, which would be the end of any special status for the French language, as well as by the dismally uncompetitive economic performance of Canada in the last 10 years.
A consequence of all these developments is that in Quebec it appears that approximately 50 percent of the population desire an independent country. The rule of thumb in Quebec politics for almost a century has been that one-fifth of the electorate was non-French and overwhelmingly federalist, and one-fifth was French but made up of those for whom federalism was attractive, and they were unconditional supporters of Quebec remaining in Canada. Another fifth were conservatives who were also anti-separatist, though they were often quite nationalist and supported nationalist measures short of separatism; another fifth were nationalists who latterly have been generally strenuous separatists; and the last 20 percent was a floating vote that could go anywhere.
Conrad Black: Trump’s Ukraine Talks Restore Confidence in NATO
Conrad Black: Putin’s Cavalier Rejection of Trump’s Overtures Will End Badly for Russia
The basic arithmetic provided a substantial advantage to the federalist side. This held in the 1980 referendum when the first two groups and half of the next two groups gave the anti-independence side 60 percent of the vote, approximately an even break of French-speaking Quebecers. By 1995 it had become much closer, and the federalists retained the first two groups and about one-half of the conservatives, for even splits of the total and an approximately 60 percent separatist vote amongst French Quebecers. It must be remembered that the Parti Québecois’ questions in both referendums were proposals for sovereignty with continued comprehensive association with Canada, and were effectively invitations to Quebecers to eat their cake and still have it in front of them.
The latest polls now indicate that the unambiguous separatist vote is approximately 43 percent of the population; a fairly clear federalist option seems to have the support of 38 percent of the population, and the balance is unclear. These are the best deductions that can be made on a clear independence vote when the Parti Québecois has 34 percent, the Liberal Party has 28 percent, Coalition Avenir Québec has 17 percent, and 13 percent for the Quebec Conservatives (who last got a significant vote in a Quebec election in 1931 when they were led by eight-term Montreal Mayor Camillien Houde). Approximately 9 percent of Quebecers declare themselves for Québec Solidaire, a party of such local enthusiasm that it wishes to secede retroactively.
If these results were confirmed in a Quebec general election, the separatist Parti Québecois would have 75 legislators to 38 Liberals, seven Conservatives, and five for Québec Solidaire. The present two-term government and its Coalition Avenir Québec party would vanish from the National Assembly.
If the federal government does not retreat on its war against the petroleum industry, Alberta would be perfectly entitled to vote for independence, which would in fact be a vote for secession from Canada and application for entry to the United States. Its entry would be accepted, and the United States would be fortunate to have such a splendid jurisdiction and would treat it better than Canada has (and not pillage it for equalization payments for quasi-separatist Quebec). If any such thing happened, Quebec would declare its independence within a few months. If Quebec voted for independence before Albertans were consulted on their views, and the results were close to what polls now indicate, this would encourage Alberta to move along parallel lines.
It may be that the principal policymakers in Ottawa are preparing a daring and imaginative counter-strategy in defence of federalism. If so, they are showing unusual discretion. If they are not, Canada is in danger.
END
CANADA/MEXICO/USA
U.S. Puts Crosshairs On Chinese Precursor Chemicals Fueling Mexico’s Narco-Terror Networks
(zerohedge)
Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, appeared in a short video Wednesday afternoon from inside an undisclosed warehouse, standing before what she says is the largest-ever seizure of precursor chemicals from China. The shipment, bound for narcoterrorist networks in Mexico to manufacture illicit drugs, was intercepted by U.S. forces.
“You are looking at the largest seizure of precursor chemicals used to manufacture methamphetamine in U.S. history. China was sending over 700,000 lbs on the high seas to the Sinaloa Cartel before my office seized them,” Pirro wrote on X, alongside a video of her standing in the undisclosed warehouse full of the precursor chemicals in barrels.
She continued, “Because President Trump and Secretary Rubio declared the Sinaloa Cartel a Foreign Terrorist Organization, we can now strike faster and hit harder.”
In April 2024, the House Select Committee on China revealed that the Chinese Communist Party used tax rebates to subsidize exports of precursor chemicals to make fentanyl.
The committee said, “Through subsidies, grants, and other incentives, the PRC harms Americans while enriching PRC companies.”
Here’s how the CCP wages hybrid warfare (read more here) against Americans, fueling a drug death crisis that kills more than 100,000 people every year.
Related:
- Chinese Fentanyl Financier Evades U.S. Extradition After Daring Mexico City Tunnel Escape
- China’s Role In U.S. Fentanyl Crisis Directed By Regime Leadership, Expert Says
- Busted Fentanyl Super Lab In Canada Makes “Breaking Bad Look Minor League”: Former Trump Official
On Tuesday, the Trump administration began dismantling supply chains of narcoterrorist networks (watch here), including the destruction of a drug-laden boat carrying Tren de Aragua militants and shipments bound for the U.S. The neutralizing operation was carried out near Venezuela.
Securing the North American continent is part of a broader Trump administration strategy, dubbed “hemispheric defense.” Whether it’s purging transnational gangs from American city streets, driving the CCP out of the U.S. and Canadian financial systems, or disrupting drug-boat supply chains in the Caribbean Sea, Trump admin folks are no longer playing around.
The new concern is that armed narcoterrorists inside the U.S. could retaliate. Remember, the Biden-Harris globalist regime allowed these cartel members to walk in by the thousands through nation-killing open border policies.
Pirro’s video suggests that Trump could soon be targeting China over its involvement in fueling the drug-death crisis in America. Sanctions inbound?
END
Australia/Illegal immigrants
seems many nations on earth dealing with the same problems
(Jonathan Turley)
The Return Of “Transportation” Sentencing? Australia Seeks To Ship Illegal Aliens To Small Pacific Island
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 08:05 AM
It has been 157 years since the last ship taking convicts from the United Kingdom landed in Australia.
Now, in a crushing historical irony, Australia is contracting with the small Pacific island of Nauru to resettle foreign-born criminals who the courts have ruled cannot be imprisoned indefinitely. The court rulings show how our allies are facing the same dilemma in dealing with people who enter the country illegally and then oppose efforts to deport them for years in litigation.
Starting with the “First Fleet” in 1788, English courts regularly sentenced convicts to “transportation” to Australia, where they were used for labor in the then-British colony.
For years, the British left prisoners in rotting warships called “hulks” in the Thames River.
Under Prime Minister William Pitt the Younger, the government solved the problem with the use of Australia. Convicts dreaded the common sentencing line issued by British judges:
“The sentence of the court upon you is, that you be transported beyond the seas for the term of your natural life.” It became so common that Historian K. S. Inglis noted that “The founders were not a chosen people except in the old Australian joke that they were chosen by the best judges in England.”
The current move is not to use immigrants for labor, but to remove individuals without a technical deportation.
The move follows the 2023 decision by Australia’s High Court that non-citizens who have no viable resettlement options outside of Australia must be released.
These deportees are largely individuals who engaged in criminal conduct.
However, the court ruled that some countries, such as Afghanistan, are considered unsafe for their nationals to be repatriated, while others, like Iran, simply refuse to accept them back if they are being transported involuntarily.
One such individual was identified as NZYQ in court papers and came from Myanmar through a smuggler and proceeded to rape a child soon after being released into the Australian community.
After serving a prison sentence, he was held by authorities until he was ordered to be released again into the population.
The government is reportedly moving to introduce legislation to strip the right of fairness from deportation decisions under the new Nauru deal. It would negate canceled visas that are under appeal in court.
Like Australia, the United States needs to address an immigration process that allows individuals to game the system for years despite orders of removal.
The system is simply not working and, with millions allowed into the country under the Biden Administration, Congress needs to streamline the system for expedited removals.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1651 DOWN 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.37 UP 0.399 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3428 DOWN .0012 OR 12 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3811 UP 0.0019 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 47.68. PTS OR 1.25%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 277.11 PTS OR 1.09%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.90%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 277.11 PTS OR 1.09%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 47,68 PTS OR 1.25%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.90 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 644.38 PTS OR 1.55%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3543.00
silver:$40.93
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.21 UP 13 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.144% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.606% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.307 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.601 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7184 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1653 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.43 UP 0.451 OR YEN IS DOWN 45 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7250 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.570 DOWN 8 POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN .0021 OR 21 BASIS pts to 1.3813
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1408 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1411
TURKISH LIRA: 41.16 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.606 down 3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.263 down 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.192% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.873 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.602 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3556.75
SILVER AT 11;00: 40.92
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 38.88 PTS OR 0.42%
GERMAN DAX: UP 175.53 pts or 0.74%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 20.79 pts or 0.27%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 128.90pts or 0.87%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 205.05 or 0.49%
WTI Oil price 63.13 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 66.74 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.94 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 95/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.351 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.907 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1647 DOWN 0.0014 OR 14 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3431 DOWN .0009 OR 9 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7140 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.558 DOWN 3 ( STILL DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR GILTS)
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.605 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.261 DOWN 3 AND VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.51 UP 0.531 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3824 UP 0.0031 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 31 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 63.34
Brent OIL: 66.85
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 4.167
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.862%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 3.590%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.348 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.903 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.27 UP 18 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.16 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.30 DOWN 0 AND 30/100 roubles //
GOLD $3550.40 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 40.71 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 339.70 OR 0.75%
NASDAQ 100 UP 218.17 PTS OR 0.93%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.55 DOWN 0.80 OR 1.89%
GLD: $ 326.68. DOWN 1.45 PTS OR 0.44%
SLV/ $36.93 DOWN 0.41 PTS OR OR .110%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 152.04 PTS OR 0.53%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bonds & Stocks Bid Ahead Of Payrolls-Palooza; Gold & Bitcoin Fade
USA DATA RELEASES
Initial Jobless Claims Rise To Highest Since June
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 08:36 AM
Following an ugly JOLTS print, a weaker than expected ADP employment report, and Challenger Grey data showing the weakest hiring plans on record for an August, initial jobless claims rose modestly from 229k to 237k (more than the 230k expected) – the highest since June, but still merely in the same range it has been oscillating in for the last four years…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims dipped last week, but remain above the 1.9 million American Maginot line…
Source: Bloomberg
After JOLTS showed government employment weakness, continuing jobless claims in the ‘Deep TriState’ are trending higher still (at highest since Dec 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
So while jobless claims ‘miss’ made it 4 for 4 labor market disappointments this week, the claims print is certainly nothing to panic over.
END
ADP
private jobs report: shows considerable slowing
ADP Employment Report Disappoints in August; Hiring Plans Collapse
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 08:23 AM
Ahead of Friday’s all-important payrolls print (and revisions), this morning’s ADP employment report may see more attention as a less ‘manipulated’ data point.
The headline print was expected to slow to 68k in August (from +104k in July and -23k in June) but in fact slowed further, adding just 54k jobs…
Source: Bloomberg
Leisure and hospitality and construction performed well despite a broader month-over-month slowdown in hiring.
“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” according to Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
“A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.“
Goods and Services jobs both saw slowing in August…
Source: Bloomberg
Manufacturing, Transportation and Education saw job losses in August…
“I think at this point, it’s clear that the labor market is slightly cooling down,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank.
“The market is now pricing a 97% chance of the Fed cut. What could change that potentially is if we have very strong inflation data, but we’re not seeing that yet.”
‘Job Stayers’ saw incomes rise at their slowest pace since June 2021 while ‘job changers’ are still seeing higher and rising incomes…
In separate figures, hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record and intended job cuts mounted, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
end
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES/NEWS
Johnson, Thune, and Trump On Collision Course Over Approaching Shutdown
Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025 – 09:20 PM
With just under a month until the next government shutdown (sigh), Republicans are locked in an increasingly messy internal battle over how to keep federal agencies funded, as competing strategies in the House, Senate, and White House collide over spending priorities, foreign aid, and political leverage.
Congress has until Sept. 30 to pass new legislation to avoid a lapse in funding, but the GOP – which controls the White House, House, and Senate – remains fractured on a path forward. This isn’t just about keeping the lights on, but also the balance of power within the Republican Party itself, as President Donald Trump’s latest move to rescind nearly $5 billion in foreign aid has inflamed tensions within the Senate and complicated delicate negotiations, Punchbowl News reports.
Three Strategies, One Deadline (and no cup)
While Republicans control all levers of government, they are far from unified:
- Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), are pushing for bipartisan funding bills that exceed House and White House proposals by tens of billions of dollars. Thune wants to position Senate Republicans as willing partners on funding, betting he can portray Democrats as obstructionists if they refuse to cooperate.
- House Republicans, under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), are leaning toward a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open through mid-November, buying time for broader talks on full-year appropriations.
- The White House, meanwhile, prefers a longer stopgap that would fund the government until at least the first quarter of 2026 – avoiding repeated shutdown showdowns but angering hard-line conservatives who see it as a capitulation to Democrats.
This divide sets up a high-stakes battle within the GOP and against Democrats, with each faction maneuvering to avoid taking the blame if the government shutters.
Trump’s Pocket Rescission Sparks Backlash
Fueling the chaos is President Trump’s decision to issue a “pocket rescission” canceling nearly $5 billion in congressionally approved foreign aid, a move that has enraged Senate Democrats and rattled some top Republicans.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, called the maneuver ‘flat-out illegal’ and said her counsel is reviewing potential legal challenges. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) warned the move could derail bipartisan negotiations:
“I think it can give Democrats a reason not to work with us on a bipartisan appropriations bill. That’s got me concerned,” Rounds said.
Making the rescission issue extra spicy; the Senate is preparing to mark up the State Department–Foreign Operations funding bill next week – one of the very accounts targeted by Trump’s cuts. With immigration and border security funding also in the mix, appropriators face an increasingly combustible set of issues.
Johnson Balances a Razor-Thin Majority
Speaker Johnson is under pressure from both establishment Republicans and the hard-right Freedom Caucus as he tries to corral votes for any funding deal.
House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) supports a short-term CR into late November, tied to a handful of full-year funding bills, which would include spending for Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, and the Legislative Branch, leaving continuing negotiations over the remaining appropriations.
But conservatives are pushing back hard, The Hill notes:
- Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), former chair of the Freedom Caucus, insists on a one-year CR with automatic spending cuts:“I’m not interested in anything that gets us right before the holidays, because we all know exactly how that’s going to go.”
- Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), current Freedom Caucus chair, echoed that sentiment, saying if Congress is going to extend funding into 2026, “I say just go for it and put it into next December.”
- Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) warned he would “probably not” vote for any short-term deal if it’s loaded with community funding projects, aka ‘earmarks,’ while other Republicans want those local funding boosts included.
For Thune, the goal is to protect the Senate’s bipartisan traditions and keep Democrats at the table. He believes moving regular appropriations bills, even at higher spending levels than Trump’s budget — will put political pressure on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his caucus.
“If the Democrats are interested in funding the government, we’re going to give them every opportunity to do that,” Thune told Punchbowl, promising to bring more funding bills to the floor this month.
However, the rescission fight threatens to blow up that strategy. Collins’ criticism signals a rare Republican split in the Senate, while Democrats, furious over Trump’s foreign aid cuts, may be less inclined to cooperate on Thune’s bipartisan path.
Democrats Hold Their Fire – For Now
Despite frustration with Trump’s rescission, some Democrats are signaling support for pairing a short-term CR with several full-year appropriations bills to avoid a shutdown.
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, said she supports attaching three bipartisan bills; for Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, and the Legislative Branch, to a short-term deal:
“As part of a bipartisan, short-term CR, I support conferencing those three bills and passing them with a short-term CR for the remaining nine bills,” Murray said.
The White House has also struck a cautiously conciliatory tone, acknowledging that a short-term CR is “increasing in likelihood” but continuing to press for a longer solution that avoids repeated deadlines.
END
BALTIMORE/CHICAGO EDUCATION
“Failure Factory” Schools Run By Democrats Plague Baltimore And Chicago, Present Societal Crisis
Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025 – 08:55 PM
Submitted by investigative reporter Chris Papst, author of “Failure Factory: How Baltimore City Public Schools Deprive Taxpayers and Students of a Future”,
Over Labor Day weekend, a series of posts on the X platform regarding student outcomes in Illinois went viral. According to one post, which cites 2022 state data, 30 Illinois schools had zero students test proficient in English. Another post, citing 2024 state data, indicates that 80 Illinois schools had zero students test proficient in math.
The likely reason these posts went viral is because the data are alarming and, for many, surprising. But it shouldn’t be. Disheartening educational outcomes, similar to Illinois, are not rare. Unfortunately, they are common. Especially in states such as Maryland.
For the past eight years, I’ve been investigating Baltimore City Public Schools as a reporter for Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore – a station owned and operated by Sinclair, Inc. When Project Baltimore launched in 2017, our mission was simple – to hold school leaders accountable by following the money, while shining a spotlight on why students continue to fail within a school system that’s failing Baltimore.
Now, after filing nearly 1,000 reports, I have written a book detailing our most shocking findings – Failure Factory: How Baltimore City Public Schools Deprive Taxpayers and Students of a Future.
U.S. News and World Reports, in July, ranked Baltimore as the nation’s fourth most dangerous city. But perhaps violence is not really the problem. Rather, the violence is a symptom of the real problem, which is a failing public school system that for decades has not provided city residents with a quality education.
Baltimore City Public Schools, in 2024, had a $1.7 billion budget, which makes it one of the nation’s most funded large school systems, according to the U.S. Census. But that same year, which is the most recent school year for which we have full data, just 10% of Baltimore students tested proficient in math. That means, about 90% of Baltimore’s students did not test proficient in math.
In 2023, Project Baltimore analyzed state testing data and found that 40% of the high schools in Baltimore City had zero students test proficient in math. When President Donald Trump signed an executive order, earlier this year, to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education he mentioned that grim fact uncovered by Fox45 News.
These issues are not unique to recent years. The failure is systemic. In 2017, Project Baltimore combed through state testing data and found six public schools in Baltimore City that did not have a single student test proficient on any state exam. You read that correctly. Despite being one of the most funded large school systems in America, Baltimore had six entire schools where zero students tested proficient in math and English.
As I promote Failure Factory on podcasts, radio shows and TV programs, I often get this question: “Are there any elected officials in Maryland who are calling for greater accountability from Baltimore City Schools, while demanding better student outcomes?”
The answer is largely, no. And this may be why: In Baltimore, there is no diversity of political thought.
The following is hard to believe, but it’s true. Every elected official in Maryland, who represents Baltimore City, is from the same political party. Every. Single. One.
Both U.S. Senators from Maryland, are Democrats. Each member of the U.S. House of Representatives who represent parts of Baltimore City, is a Democrat. Every State Senator and State House of Delegates member who represents the people of Baltimore, is a Democrat. Within city limits, there is not one Republican currently elected to any position. There hasn’t been a Republican mayor in Baltimore since the 1960s. There hasn’t been a Republican elected to City Council in generations.
This is not to suggest that Republicans have all the answers. But I do believe most Americans would agree that two-party control is more effective than one-party rule.
The aforementioned Project Baltimore reports regarding student proficiencies all went viral. But most of the outrage emanated from outside the state. Public officials in Maryland stayed relatively quiet. And remain so to this day.
What will happen in Illinois? Will public officials in that state demand that public schools improve the quality of education offered to students? I suppose we’ll find out. But as an investigative journalist who has been entrenched in Baltimore for nearly a decade, I’ll tell you this – a community with a failing public school system cannot thrive.
END
. . .
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 4, 2025 Issue 7569 | Independent View of the News |
| The London Metal Exchange delayed its trading start in Asia by 90 minutes on Wednesday, to 9:30 am Beijing time from 8:00 am. The LME did not give a reason for the delay. Pundits wondered if ‘someone had margin trouble’ and/or it was related to gold. December gold hit 3640.10 (+47.90) at 14:14 ET. Global bond selloff spreads to Japan, gold hits record high Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to an all-time high of 3.29 percent on Wednesday, (later hit 3.3%) while 20-year yields reached their highest since 1999… https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250903-japan-s-long-term-borrowing-costs-gold-hit-record-highs JOLTS Job Openings sank to 7.181m (7.38m expected) from a revised 7.357m (from 7.437m) in July. The Layoff Level is 1.808m, 1.639m expected. Even worse, June was revised to 1.796m from 1.604m. Table A. Job Openings: Health Care & Social Assistance -181k, Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation -62k, Leisure & Hosp -47k, Government -38k, and Mining and Logging -13k; Construction +64k, Mfg. +41k https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm @sentimentrader: The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years. The last two times this yield curve cycled from inversion to a spread of +1.25%, it coincided with the two most wicked bear markets in generations. Since the inception of the curve, those were the only two signals that preceded negative returns. https://x.com/sentimentrader/status/1963210368190403040 @MauiBoyMacro: It’s actually the last four times this happened, but who’s counting. There was a significant defensive asset allocation or stock-bond rebalancing on Wednesday. USZs (December ‘Z’ is now the front month for debt futures) hit a daily low of 113 1/32 at 3:20 ET and a high of 114 22/32, +1 8/32, at 13:20 ET. Near 11:00 ET, the DJIA and DJTA were down modestly while the NY Fang+ Index was up sharply on Google, which rallied as much as 9.2% after a judge halted a breakup of Google. Judge Amit Mehta; “The emergence of GenAI changed the course of this case.” Apple rallied as much as 3.5%. It gets ~$20B per year for making Google search the default on iPhones. ESUs opened sharply higher on Tuesday night but quickly commenced a decline that ended with a daily low of 6425.50 at 1:45 ET. ESUs then rallied sharply, hitting 6459.50 at 7:07 ET. Selling pushed ESUs down to 6437.75 at 10:13 ET. The usual suspects then aggressively bought the dip; ESUs soared to a daily high of 6464.25 at 11:05 ET. The liquidation for the 11:30 ET Europe close was robust. After sinking to 6443.00 at 11:31 ET, the post-European close contra-move took ESUs to 6451.75 at 11:40 ET. Alas, patient sellers were ready. ESUs fell to 6436.00 at 12:52 ET. After a rebound to 6450.50 at 13:17 ET, ESUs dropped to 6426.50 at 14:39 ET and then traded in a 7-handle range until a blatant manipulation forced ESUs to 6459.50 at 16:00 ET. USZs rolled over near 15:00 ET. This implies the buy bonds/sell stocks entity or entities exited the market. This enabled the last-hour ESU manipulation. The blatant, illegal late ESU manipulation, Central Time Fed ‘Beige Book’ economic report cites declining growth, rising prices and slow hiring “All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/fed-beige-book-economic-report-cites-declining-growth-rising-prices-sl-rcna210957 Fed Beige Book: “Across districts, contacts reported flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices…” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250903.pdf Dollar Tree stock plunges as it warns tariffs will squeeze margins despite demand for its cheap goods https://trib.al/3DVWk6k Bessent says tariff revenue hit a record $31B for August. Positive aspects of previous session Oil and gasoline declined sharply. The NY Fang+ Index rallied sharply on Google and Apple. Stocks rallied from midday to the NYSE close, abetted by DJT’s call for a ‘serious rate cut.’ An illegal late manipulation greatly truncated stock losses. Negative aspects of previous session Gold and Gold Stocks rallied again; the dollar declined moderately. A defensive asset or bond-stock revaluation allocation occurred. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is gold trying to tell us? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6439.37 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6453.67; 6416.17 ‘I haven’t seen this much uncertainty since 1968’: Even a Macron resignation won’t save France The Fifth Republic established by Charles de Gaulle is looking increasingly ungovernable. French politics are so paralyzed that the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron — an idea once only whispered in the corridors of power — is now being openly debated… the legislature is deadlocked, budget talks are flatlining, and murmurs of social unrest are growing louder… “If people start thinking it’s not so bad, we can live with deficits, we are heading toward a full-blown crisis,” he said. “Germany will start thinking that France is a serious problem and the ECB [European Central Bank] will not be able to help the French government manage its debt.”… https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-resignation-francois-bayrou-france/ Trump: The big question to be answered is whether or not President Xi of China will mention the massive amount of support and “blood” that The United States of America gave to China in order to help it to secure its FREEDOM from a very unfriendly foreign invader. Many Americans died in China’s quest for Victory and Glory. I hope that they are rightfully Honored and Remembered for their Bravery and Sacrifice! May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America. CNN: Epstein survivors are speaking out from the Capitol steps as lawmakers push to release more files related to the late convicted sex offender’s case… https://cnn.it/4p3pDj1 @charliekirk11: Epstein survivors announce that they will compile their own list of abusers who frequented his island and plane. “We know the names. Many of us were abused by them. We will compile the names we all know were regularly in the Epstein world.” https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1963253369255916019 @officer_Lew: Epstein Survivor Chauntae Davies reveals she was “taken on a trip to Africa with former President Bill Clinton and other notable people…” https://x.com/officer_Lew/status/1963277004674826699 @nicksortor: NBC News just asked an entire panel of Epstein victims if they ever “saw or heard Donald Trump doing anything inappropriate in relation to Epstein.” VICTIMS: “No… no.” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1963268323426091082 Today – There was a significant defensive asset allocation or stock-bond rebalancing yesterday. The absence or presence of the sell stocks/ESUs, buy bonds/USZs players should dictate trading. When the buying of bonds stopped, someone realized that an ESU manipulation could be undertaken. ESUs are +4.50; NQUs are +22.00; AU is -28.50 and USZs are -1/32 at 20:07 ET. Expected Economic Data: Aug ADP Employment Change 68k; Q2 Nonfarm Productivity 2.7%, Unit Labor Costs 1.2%; Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.96m; July Trade Balance -$77.9B; Aug S&P Global US Services PMI 55.4, Composite PMI 55.3; Aug ISM Services Index 51, Prices Paid 69.5, New Orders 51.1, Employment 46.7; NY Fed Pres Williams 12:05 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6334; 100-day MA: 6041; 150-day MA: 5957; 200-day MA: 5964 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,540; 100-day MA: 43,019; 150-day MA: 42,929; 200-day MA: 43,105 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6448.26 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6195.79 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6376.37 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 6467.60 triggers a buy signal @RapidResponse47: @POTUS slams soft-on-crime Democrats: “They are against preventing crime. They are fighting us. I want to go into Chicago, and I have this incompetent governor that doesn’t want us… In three weeks, almost 35 people were killed. It could’ve been stopped.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1963272285596303649 Leftists’ contemporary protest stunt is banging a pot. We’re not making this up! Protesting Trump’s DC crime cleanup: https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1963033145495699777 Protesters bang pots and pans at Philly’s 30th Street Station to decry growing reports of ‘famine-like’ conditions in Gaza https://whyy.org/articles/philadelphia-gaza-hunger-protest/ Apparently, the risible pot-banging protest originated in France circa 1830 and gained popularity in 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/21/the-long-history-of-protesting-with-pots-and-pans Clamor and clang: How pot-banging became a global protest symbol May 1, 2023 French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent public appearances have been met with a clamor of pot-clanging by demonstrators furious over his decision to hike the retirement age… Macron’s widely unpopular pension reforms have elicited a frenzied new chorus of pot-banging… https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2023-05-01/Clamor-and-clang-How-pot-banging-became-a-global-protest-symbol-1jbUZirBtdu/index.html @ABC: An 18th-century portrait stolen by the Nazis during WWII is believed to have resurfaced in the most unexpected place: hanging above a sofa in an Argentinian home and discovered not by law enforcement or a museum, but in a photo on a real estate website. Where are the adults at ABC? They allow someone to write that Argentina is an unexpected place to discover Nazi criminality! This is an actual Politico headline & story: Trump denies he’s dead. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook-remaking-government/2025/09/02/trump-denies-hes-dead-00540451 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
This is going to be lots of fun!!
DOJ Opens Grand Jury Criminal Investigation Fed Governor Lisa Cook Over Mortgage Fraud Allegations
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 10:10 AM
The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook – and has issued multiple subpoenas as part of the inquiry into whether she committed mortgage fraud, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing ‘officials familiar with the matter.’
The probe – for which a grand jury has been assembled, will begin by looking at Cook’s properties in Ann Arbor, Michigan and Atlanta. It comes on the heels of two criminal investigations from Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte, who has been dropping receipts for weeks with evidence that Cook committed fraud – including claiming two properties as her “primary residence” – as well as claiming that a rented out third property was her ‘second home’ – all things that would qualify her for better rates and tax treatment.
Pulte accused Cook of misleading banks on multiple mortgage applications to receive favorable lending terms, such as lower interest rates, typically given to a buyer who intends to occupy the home they purchase.
A judge is considering Cook’s request for an emergency order stopping her from being removed from the Fed board while the case proceeds. The Fed’s next meeting is set to begin Sept. 16. -WSJ
Last Thursday, Cook filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration after President Donald Trump fired her that Monday ‘for cause.’ Among the excuses contained in the lawsuit for alleged mortgage fraud was a possible clerical error.
Except, Cook described herself in her 2023 nomination hearing as having “significant experience in banking and finance, as is evidenced by my service on the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and of a Community Development Financial Institution in Michigan, in addition to my employment at an investment bank and a large commercial bank.”
What’s more, the Federal Reserve Act allows the president to fire Fed governors ‘for cause’ – which the Trump administration claims applies. In a Tuesday court filing, Cook’s lawyers said she “did not ever commit mortgage fraud.”
Pulte shot down any notion that the fed wasn’t political in a Thursday appearance on CNBC, saying “I don’t believe for the last 4 years that the Fed has been independent.”
According to the report, the DOJ investigation involves Ed Martin, a top DOJ official who AG Pam Bondi designated to investigate mortgage fraud among public officials.
END
special thanks to Robert H for ending this to us;
NEW YORK POST:
Rep. Nancy Mace wants Prince Andrew in ‘handcuffs’ after Epstein victims meeting gave her ‘full blown panic attack’
By
Published Sep. 4, 2025, 9:14 a.m. ET460 Comments
Tearful Nancy Mace joins outraged Republicans demanding release of Epstein files
Rep. Nancy Mace has called for Prince Andrew to be put in “handcuffs” — just days after she tearfully stormed out of a House Oversight Committee closed-door meeting with Jeffrey Epstein victims.
“Now seems like a good time to discuss prosecuting Prince Andrew for any and all potential crimes on US soil,” Mace posted on X late Wednesday.
“A cold dark cell. Prince Andrew in handcuffs. Sends the right message.”
Prince Andrew has long been plagued by allegations he sexually abused one of Epstein’s most high-profile accusers, Virginia Roberts Giuffre, when she was 17.
The disgraced British royal, who paid Giuffre an undisclosed sum in 2022 to settle a civil lawsuit, has always denied the claims.
“Seems like the right next step (after we release the files),” Mace wrote in a follow-up tweet regarding her call to prosecute him.
“Perhaps we can focus on prosecuting predators next. Let victims, survivors and the country heal.”
Giuffre died by suicide in April at her home in Australia.
Mace, meanwhile, has been among those pushing for the release of the so-called “Epstein files” — despite President Trump’s efforts to dismiss the issue as a hoax.
The South Carolina Republican, who has previously shared her own experience as a victim of sexual assault, was spotted, visibly upset, leaving the House Oversight Committee’s meeting with Epstein victims this week — claiming their horror stories gave her a “full blown panic attack.”
END
Trump Tells Supreme Court He Will Appeal In E. Jean Carroll Case
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump plans to ask the Supreme Court this fall to overturn a civil jury verdict that found he sexually abused writer E. Jean Carroll and defamed her, his attorneys said in a new court filing.
Trump’s intentions were revealed in an application docketed by the nation’s highest court on Sept. 2.
In the application, his lawyers asked the court to extend an upcoming Sept. 10 deadline for filing a petition to challenge the $5 million verdict to Nov. 10. The application was directed to Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who handles urgent appeals from New York.
Trump “intends to seek review” of “significant issues” arising out of the trial and what he termed the “erroneous” ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that affirmed the verdict, according to the application.
On June 13, a divided Second Circuit denied a rehearing in the case.
Circuit Judges Steven Menashi and Michael Park dissented from the ruling.
“These holdings conflict with controlling precedents and produced a judgment that cannot be justified under the rules of evidence that apply as a matter of course in all other cases,” Menashi said in a dissent joined by Park.
Trump’s attorney in the case, Justin D. Smith of James Otis Law Group LLC in St. Louis, Missouri, said more time was needed to file the petition.
“Undersigned counsel faces a significant press of business due to many upcoming deadlines,” Smith said.
Carroll gave evidence during a 2023 trial that Trump attacked her in 1996 in a dressing room in a Manhattan department store near the Trump Tower.
In its May 2023 verdict, the federal jury held Trump liable for sexually abusing Carroll and defaming her when he made statements in October 2022 denying her allegations.
The jury awarded Carroll $5 million in damages.
In another lawsuit filed by Carroll, a federal jury ordered Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages over statements he made in 2019 denying the sexual assault allegations.
A three-judge panel of the Second Circuit affirmed the verdict in December 2024, rejecting Trump’s argument that the trial judge’s ruling invalidated the trial by allowing others who accused Trump of sexual abuse to testify. Three women said Trump carried out similar acts against them in 2005 and the 1970s. Trump denied the allegations.
“President Trump has consistently and unequivocally denied Carroll’s allegations in both cases,” the new application said.
Carroll obtained the $5 million award based on “incorrect findings,” after which the federal district court “wrongly” interpreted the law and “improperly [prevented] President Trump from contesting the merits in that action,” the filing said. After that, Carroll secured the “unjust judgment of $83.3 million,” the application said.
“We do not believe that President Trump will be able to present any legal issues in the Carroll cases that merit review by the United States Supreme Court,” Roberta Kaplan, Carroll’s attorney, said on Sept. 3
END
GREG HUNTER..INTERVIEWING KAREN KINGSTON
Truth About CV19 Vax Awakens Public – Karen Kingston
usawatchdog.com/truth-about-cv19-vax-awakens-public-karen-kingston
Truth About CV19 Vax Awakens Public – Karen Kingston
By Greg Hunter On September 3, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Karen Kingston is a biotech analyst and former Pfizer employee that warned in her very first appearance on USAWatchdog in September of 2021 that the “CV19 Vaccines are Poison.” Nearly five years ago, Kingston said, “They are only intended to poison, mutate, cause genetic mutations, and kill adults and children. They contain advanced medical technologies called lipid nanoparticles that are made of hydrogel, which contain graphene oxide (poison to humans) . . .. There are strong immunosuppressants, different types of chemotherapies that could suppress your immune system while being injected by something that is going to highjack your immune system . . .. and actually produce this disease-causing genetic material that can cause cancers, inflammatory diseases, genetic disorders, infertility and etc.”
And nearly five years later, every single thing Kingston predicted about the CV19 bioweapon vax has been proven true. The latest example showing the deadly and debilitating disaster that is the CV19 vax comes from a new peer reviewed study that “Finds COVID-19 ‘Vaccines’ Increase Risk of Multiple Cancers — CONFIRMS Fears of ‘Turbo Cancer’ Epidemic.” There are also diseases of “epidemic” proportions with heart, immune system and brain function, to name a few more.
Maybe this is why Florida, just today, ended all vaccine mandates. Many of these ‘vaccines’ contain deadly and debilitating mRNA. This ban also includes the CV19 “vaccine.” Kingston reports, “The Florida Department of Health, in partnership with the governor, is going to be working to end all vaccine mandates in Florida law, ALL of them, EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM,” says Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joe Ladapo.
President Trump is also questioning the CV19 vaccines and is demanding the vaccine makers justify the safety of their products. Trump said in part on Truth social, “With CDC being ripped apart over this question, I want the answer, and I want it NOW. . .. I hope OPERATION WARP SPEED was as “BRILLIANT” as many say it was. If not, we all want to know about it, and why???
Kingston says, “President Trump is demanding that Pfizer shows its data. . .. One report from June of 2022 from Pfizer and people calling in and they recorded it. Pfizer recorded nearly five million adverse (CV19 vax) events across nearly 1.5 million people. The most common were neurological. There were nearly 750,000 nervous system disorders. . .. This is really scary. . .. This was in a period of 18 months.” Kingston says there were at least a dozen other CV19 vax studies that were never released and were kept from the public.
Did Pfizer stop the shots and alert President Trump about this? NO! Now, even top former CDC officials are trashing the CV19 shots. Kingston says, “Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, a CDC director, just repeated what HHS Secretary Kennedy said in 2021, and that is the CV19 vaccine is ‘the deadliest vaccine ever made.’ (So-called fact checkers said back in 2021 this was not true. In 2025, with millions of victims dead, it most certainly IS TRUE.) My point is Daskalakis repeated what Kennedy said in 2021 recently on MSNBC. They are putting it out there. They can’t undo the damage that has been done. RFK Jr. just revoked more than $500 million in research projects of mRNA. There have been a lot of movements, and it is interesting Trump is calling on the drug companies to step in and disclose their information. The last time they disclosed their information, it was horrible. . .. By the way, a lot of data they submitted to the FDA has never been released.”
Multiple top people at the CDC recently have quit or been fired. Also, the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the CV19 vax has been terminated. This move makes many now liable for adverse vaccine reactions. Maybe this is why CVS and Walgreens have restricted the CV19 vax after this announcement. Kingston calls what is happening now “a watershed moment of awakening” for the people who want the ugly truth to come out for the CV19 vax. Kingston says, “It’s all criminal, and this is what I have always said. This is the data.”
Now, Kingston says people need treatment to “detox” from the ill effects of the CV19 vax. Let’s hope the treatment starts soon and we don’t wait another five years to start saving lives of the CV19 vaccine injured.
There is much more in the 88-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned biotech analyst Karen Kingston as she continues to uncover pure evil that has been covered up but is finally coming out for everyone to see the fraud and crime of the CV19 bioweapon vax that killed and injured millions worldwide.
After the Interview:
In the last five years Kingston has appeared on USAWatchdog 28 times. She was never wrong, and she never backed down.
There is some free information on Kingston’s Substack.
harveyorganblog.com 
