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FROM MY no 4 SON STEPHEN //THROUGH AI: ENJOY
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 135
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 122
323 C HSBC 520
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 25
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 70
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 6
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 9 35
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 16
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 6
880 C CITIGROUP 101
905 C ADM 13
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 529 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 52,900 OZ or 1.6454 TONNES
total notices so far: 3126 contracts for 312,600 OR 9.723 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 32 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.160 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 10,015 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 50.075 million oz
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 13.050 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 55.500 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.3017 TONNES PLUS 0. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 8.6314//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 18.8544 TONNES!!
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 15.7729 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE 1185 CONTRACTS OI TO 157,092 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 300 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1075 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1185 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 882 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.68 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.425 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.68 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.24 PTS OR 1.24%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 357.25 PTS OR 1.43%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 438.48 PTS OR 1.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.90%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1377 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1343/ Oil DOWN TO 63.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.74 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1377 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1343 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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END
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 592 CONTRACTS TO 495,368 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $22.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING.. WE OF COURSE, LOST NO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (330). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND OUR MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION FINALIZED WITH LAST FRIDAY TRADING AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 922 CONTRACTS (OR 2.867 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 OZ (0 TONNES). THE RAID ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING FOR OUR CROOKS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 2775 CONTRACTS OR 277,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.591 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES FOR 2725 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 272,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK COULD BE EITHER:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S OR THE FRBNY ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE FRBNY, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON AUGUST COMEX MONTH//FINAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 922 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 882 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE WITH LAST MONTH’S RAID DURING COMEX OPTION EXPIRY WEEK FOR JULY. THE TAS SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS COMBINE WITH MONTH END AUGUST SPREADERS AS THEY JOIN FORCES IN AN ATTEMPT TO TEMPER THE GOLD/SILVER PRICE GAINS. THE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUED 5 WEEKS AGO WITH HUGE FURY AS WE FINALIZED THE LONDON/OTC OPTION EXPIRY FOR AUGUST AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME FAILED WITH RAIDS FINALIZATION ON AUGUST OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD
NEW FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.3017 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 8.6314 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 18.8544 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 34+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 239 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.3017TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 8.6314 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE//PRIOR:
THAT IS;
A) 0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY//TOTAL FOR MONTH: 8.6314 TONNES
B) 0.3017 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP
TOTALS: 18.8544 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 330 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 330 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 330 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 882 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING HUGE GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
2) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES30
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 2 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 8.6314 TONNES.
STANDING FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT: 10.223 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) + 0 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY_//TOTAL FOR MONTH = 8.6314//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 18.8544 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $22.70./ /) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE LONGS PILING IT ON TRYING TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED GOLD DESPITE THE RAID///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH LAST WEEK’S TRADING!! THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THE CROOKS COULD NOT MUSTER A RAID ON OPTIONS EXPIRY LONDON/OTC AUGUST TRADING. THEIR RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR PRICE.
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
DETAIL SUMMARY OF NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES: FEB THROUGH SEPTEMBER TRADING:
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TTO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283,400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH. FEBRUARY IS THE SECOND HIGHEST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS AUGUST BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW!
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH 3 ISSUANCES
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!:
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRIL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE: 3
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 3 ISSUANCES FOR 308,350 OZ. THIS TOTALS 9.591 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
JUNE ISSUANCE: ZERO
JULY ISSUANCE; AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS AFTER AN INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD (OCCURRED ON JULY 25) THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF 706 CONTRACTS FOR 70,600 OZ OR 2.195 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL STANDING. THUS 35.176 TONNES OFFICIAL STANDING + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING
AUGUST: 7 ISSUED,
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH OF AUGUST 44.696 TONNES, THE HIGHEST MONTHLY EVER COMEX ISSUANCE!!!!!!
THUS 107.5117 TONNES OF NORMAL GOLD STANDING (INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYS TRANSFERS) + 44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: 2 ISSUED:
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT OUR TWO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK EQUATES TO 2725 CONTRACTS FOR 272,500 OZ OR 8.6314 TONNES. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A DOOZY FOR SEPT DELIVERIES AS EITHER THE BANK OF ENGLAND OR THE BIS (LOANED TO THE FRBNY) WANTS ITS GOLD BACK+ THE MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPING BY OTHER CENTRAL BANKS
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 2.867 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 0.3017 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 8.6314 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL FOR MONTH (TODAY’S EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE = 0 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK) AND THUS NEW TOTALS EX FOR RISK MONTH = 8.6310//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 18.8544 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22.70
WE HAD 8157 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 922 CONTRACTS OR 92200 0Z (2.867 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 254,684 contracts// fair//
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
SEPT CONTRACT MONTH
SEPT 5 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 entries I) Out of Brinks 79,781.925 oz II) Out of JPMorgan 45,286.300 oz total withdrawal: 120,568.725 oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis: 1075,315.020 oz total deposit 1,075,315.020 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 529 notice(s) 52,900 OZ 1.6454 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 161 contracts 16,100 OZ 0.5007 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3126 notices 312,600 oz 9.723 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entries
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 1075,315.020 oz
total deposit 1,075,315.020 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
2 entries
I) Out of Brinks 79,781.925 oz
II) Out of JPMorgan 45,286.300 oz
total withdrawal: 120,568.725 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 690 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 84 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 13 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 97 CONTRACTS OR 97000 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 0.3017 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD OUR INITIAL 2.333 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED UNDER EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR TO YESTERDAY’S 6.299 TONNES/NEW EX FOR RISK = 8.63147//THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING REDUCES TO 18.8544 TONNES
OCTOBER LOST 826 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 60,937
NOVEMBER GAINED 80 CONTRACTS UP TO 2743 CONTRACTS.
We had 529 contracts filed for today representing 52,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 8 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 529 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 35 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3126 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 690 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (529 x 100 oz per contract) equals 328,700 OZ OR 10.223 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EX FOR RISK OF 8.632 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING REDUCES TO 18.8549 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (3126 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (690 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (529 x 100 oz) which equals 328,700 OZ OR 10.223 TONNES PLUS 8.632 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.8544 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 18.8544 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,049,534.159 oz 63.756 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,957,797.857 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,304,588.071 or 662.662 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,653,209.786 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,255,054 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 598.91 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 5 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries: i) Out of Delaware: 3898.140 oz ii) Out of HSBC 80,325.460 oz total withdrawal 84,223.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex 1135,107.020 oz total deposit1135,107.02 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT i) Into CNT 294,847.600 oz total deposit 294,877.600 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 32 CONTRACT(S) (0.160 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1085 contracts (5.465 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 10,015 Contracts (50.075 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
i) Into Stonex 1135,107.020 oz
total deposit1135,107.02 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 DEPOSIT ENTRY/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into CNT 294,847.600 oz
total deposit 294,877.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries:
i) Out of Delaware: 3898.140 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 80,325.460 oz
total withdrawal 84,223.600 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1
i) Customer to dealer; Manfra 49,720.860 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.284 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 518.368 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 1117 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 663 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 723 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 60 CONTRACTS OR 0.3000 MILLION OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX ADVANCES TO 55.500 MILLION OZ.
STANDING FOR SILVER: 55.500 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER LOST 9 CONTRACTS TO 2492
NOVEMBER GAINED 137 CONTRACTS UP TO 1368.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:32 or 0.160 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 71,062 strong//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,015 X5,000 oz = 50.075 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (1117) AND the number of notices served upon today (32 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (10,015) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(1117) minus number of notices served upon today (32)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 55.500 MILLION OZ .
New total standing: 55.500 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195.284 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/518.368 million. 40.59%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.50 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.45 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
JULY 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.09 TONNES/
JULY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $40.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 7.74 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES/
JULY 22 WITH GOLD UP $36.60 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.06 TONNES/
JULY 21 WITH GOLD UP $40.30 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 4.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.63 TONNES/
JULY 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.50 TONNES/
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.79 TONNES/
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.64 TONNES/
JULY 14 WITH GOLD UP $0.90 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $32.35 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD //: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.81 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 984.26 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.852 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.211 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.398 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.84/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.942 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 4.906 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.353 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT DEPOSIT OF 11.175 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.447 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.78/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.272 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.13/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.998 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.453 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.22/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 476.451 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.09/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A FRAUDLENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.543 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.632 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.175 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.14/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.42/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.722 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.308 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
Schiff: Trump’s Wrong; “We Screw Over The World” On Trade
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 12:05 PM
Donald Trump’s tariffs split opinion—champions said they were leverage to rebuild U.S. industry, while critics argued they were hidden taxes that raised costs and invited retaliation. At last night’s ZH Debate, Cornell chemistry professor Dave Collum — fresh off his Tucker Carlson controversy — moderated as Peter Schiff and Brent Johnson squared off on trade, tariffs, and the future of the dollar.
Brent is no fan of tariffs but thinks there is some wisdom to Trump’s long-term plan and that the U.S. dollar still reigns supreme. Peter… well all ZH readers know where Peter stands.
Below were the key moments for those short on time:
Trump Has Trade Deficits Wrong
Peter Schiff argued that America’s trade deficits are misunderstood. “It’s actually the other way around,” he said, pushing back on Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. is being taken advantage of. “We take advantage of the world. They give us goods produced at significant cost in resources, land, labor, capital… and all we do is run off dollars on a printing press, cost us nothing, and we give it to them.”
Brent Johnson responded that this imbalance is exactly what comes with America’s position. “That’s the privilege of being the hegemon as you get global.”
Schiff countered that such privilege is temporary. “It’s the privilege that we are about to lose. That’s what $3,500 gold tells you. Dollar is on the way out as the reserve currency.”
“I expect Powell to lose”
Brent went on record with a bold call that included something rarely seen in market commentary: timing.
He predicts — as soon as October — a 10 or 20% market downturn… perhaps welcomed by the Trump admin so they can blame the Fed and lower rates.
“To get the cover to do that, they need some pain. I don’t think they can do that right now with things the way they already are.”
“Some kind of a crisis that they blame on the Fed, and then they go back to even easier monetary policy than maybe they had last time. And that is what then gives the fuel to go much higher.”
With markets at record highs and inflation still sticky, “it’s really hard to do it now.”
Brent’s prediction: “I think Powell is pushing back a little bit. But this is the thing—I expect Powell to lose. I think Trump and Bessent are going to get control.”
Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify for more fun moments like this one…
Schiff on the world’s attitude towards the U.S. dollar once rates drop: “Shove it up your ass.”
Full Debate (X, YT, and Spotify):
Secure your wealth against inflation with JM Bullion.
JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Gold and silver bullish
There’s growing appreciation that the gold and silver bull has returned, though the reasons justifying it may not be apparent. But this week’s price action is an important turning point.
| Alasdair MacleodSep 5∙Paid |
There are important factors in the background driving the relationship between monetary metals, the dollar, and the other major G7 currencies. These include geopolitics: this week saw plans advancing for a non-dollar (and G7) currency area incorporating the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS, and those nations in the queue to join, representing 70% of the world’s population. Additionally, there is a developing G7 bond crisis as the debt bubble hits the buffers. And technical analysis tells us that gold and silver prices are going potentially far higher.
Gold and silver appear to be front-running major changes in the relationship between G7 currencies and the consequences of these tectonic shifts. It is in this context that this week’s performance should be read.
Gold and silver chose a four-day week in the US (Monday was Labor Day) to break out of holding patterns, putting a dramatic squeeze on Comex futures. In European trade this morning, gold was $3550, up $102 from last Friday’s close, and silver was $40.77, up $1.02 over the same timescale.
Having been subdued since early-April, Comex open interest in the gold contract increased by about 50,000 contracts as momentum traders in the managed money category began to buy. With the relationship to price, this is shown in our next chart.
This is a return to normal bull market conditions, with buying rather than short covering driving the price.
However, the swaps will be careful not to be squeezed, raising prices to discourage buyers. We can only assume that their short positions on Comex are roughly covered by long positions in London’s forward market. Less commented on are the shorts in the speculator categories. The latest COT report (26 August) showed 33,577 managed money shorts, 27,879 other reported shorts, and 20,058 non-reported shorts for a total of 81,514. Some of these are bound to have been closed since that date, but what remains will be suffering pain.
To summarise, the set up remains bullish with plenty of shorts yet to be squeezed into covering. Furthermore, the fiasco earlier this year at the Bank of England’s vault will have convinced central banks to desist in leasing activities, so physical liquidity will remain extremely tight, as the declining trend of vault data from the bank illustrates:
The technical position is bound to encourage more speculative buying, and this chart is next:
The chart pattern is unequivocally bullish, with a minimum projection to $4,300. As to why this is justified on fundamentals, momentum traders are unlikely to care. But political pressure on the Fed to reduce rates coupled with a stalling economy plus increasing price inflation is probably enough reason for most.
Additionally, stubbornly high long bond yields in the US and elsewhere forces central banks to fund government debt at short maturities. While lower interest rates will reduce funding costs in treasury bills, it means that increasing quantities of debt need to be rolled over in addition to new funding. Long term, this is bound to be a problem. Short term, it encourages the Fed and other central banks to cut rates as much as they dare, which undermines the currency and increases gold and silver prices.
Silver’s chart is equally bullish with the breakout obvious:
Furthermore, there is the prospect of the gold/silver ratio declining. The g/s chart tells us very little, but as gold rises, on average silver rises almost twice as fast. Furthermore, the decline of the fiat dollar as the world’s reserve currency should draw increasing attention to silver’s monetary qualities, pushing the gold/silver ratio considerably lower. With gold at $4000 and a ratio of 50, that makes silver $80. This is not a forecast, only an illustration of silver’s potential.
Finally, the dollar’s trade weighted chart shows the dollar poised for its next move down against other currencies, principally the euro and yen, hardly paragons of virtue themselves:
A move lower with lower interest rates is Trump’s stated objective and that of the so-called Mar-o-Largo accord devised by Stephen Miran, whose appointment to the Fed’s board is before Congress.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 239
a must view:
5. COMMODITY REPORT GOLD
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.24 PTS OR 1.24%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 357.25 PTS OR 1.43%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 438.48 PTS OR 1.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.90%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1377 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1343/ Oil DOWN TO 63.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 66.74 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1377 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1343 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1377
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1343
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 357.25 PTS OR 1.43%
2. Nikkei closed UP 438.48 PTS OR 1.03%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.05 EURO RISES TO 1.1674 UP 17 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.575//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.21…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.237 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7120 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.582 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.290
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.415
3j Gold at $3548.15 Silver at: 40.76 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 12 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.41
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.21/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.575% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.237 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8038 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9383 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.165 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.857 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.590 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.26
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7220 DOWN 1 PTS ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.567 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.347 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.903 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Further Into Record Territory Ahead Of Jobs Report
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 08:23 AM
US equity futures are higher into NFP, rising after strong results from Broadmcom and on optimism that Friday’s jobs report will set the stage for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates this month. At 8:00am, futures for the S&P 500 ticked 0.1% higher – reaching a new record high – but eased off the best levels of the session. Nasdaq contracts advanced 0.5%. In premarket trading, Broadcom rallied more than 9% following its pact with OpenAI to create an artificial-intelligence chip. Tesla rose 2% after the board proposed a potentially $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk. US Treasuries were little changed, with the two-year yield near the lowest in almost a year. The dollar headed for its weakest showing this week. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower, while gold and ags are mostly higher.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +2%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -0.3%, Alphabet -0.1%, Nvidia -0.8%) as Broadcom (AVGO) soars 11% after the chipmaker is said to be helping OpenAI design and produce an artificial intelligence accelerator from 2026. It also said that its artificial intelligence outlook will improve “significantly” in fiscal 2026.
- Crypto-linked stocks rose with Bitcoin and Ether prices up as broader markets gain on hopes that US jobs data on Friday will increase the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month. Coinbase (COIN) +1.2%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +1.8%, Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) +2.7%
- BioNTech ADRs (BNTX) gains 10% after the drugmaker said a late-stage trial of an experimental therapy for breast cancer met its primary endpoint.
- Braze (BRZE) climbs 18% as the cloud software company beat its second-quarter revenue and third-quarter revenue forecast estimates. An analyst at Needham notes that AI is seen to be a growth driver. .
- DocuSign (DOCU) rises 6.6% after the e-signature company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
- Guidewire (GWRE) is up 14% after forecasting revenue for the first quarter above the average analyst estimate.
- Lululemon (LULU) falls 18% after slashing its outlook, disappointing investors for a third straight quarter as the company struggles to meet high expectations and balance tariff expenses in a difficult consumer environment.
- Samsara (IOT) is up 12% as the US hardware-software platform company boosted its adjusted earnings guidance for the full year.
Investors are riding high ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls report, with hopes it will strike the balance of a softer labor market that clears the way for policy easing without undercutting confidence in the economy. A bigger surprise in either direction could unsettle markets.
August payrolls are projected to rise by roughly 75,000, extending a four-month streak of job growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen climbing to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 (our full preview is here). JPMorgan Market Intel estimates a better than 90% chance that the S&P 500 will advance following the payrolls report. Although the data is unlikely to sway the September decision, a weaker-than-expected print could amplify calls for a 50 basis-point cut, the team led by Andrew Tyler noted earlier this week. While softer numbers may briefly stoke recession fears, the bank notes that the real risk lies in a substantially stronger-than-expected report.
“Today’s release is unlikely to show the kind of pronounced weakness that would force the Fed to accelerate its easing plans,” wrote Max McKechnie, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Instead, investors should focus on the unemployment rate and wage growth for a clearer sense of the Fed’s next steps.”
The run-up to today’s payrolls report has brought a raft of data signaling a slowdown in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a first rate cut for 2025 in his Jackson Hole speech, citing risks to the jobs backdrop even as inflation concerns persist.
Some investors are approaching the release cautiously after recent revisions showed significantly weaker growth than previously reported. The downward adjustments, published with the July report, also led US President Donald Trump to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the integrity of data going forward. Stretched valuations also argue for restraint.
“We’re at a pivotal moment not only on growth and the labor market but also on inflation,” said Patrick Brenner, chief investment officer of multi-asset at Schroders Plc. “The market is priced for perfection and so we’re taking a wait-and-see approach by taking profits on our equity position.”
European stocks rise for a third straight session as investors await key US payrolls data later in the day. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% to 551.97 with the FTSE 100 outperforming European peers. The CAC 40 lagged, flat on the day. Miners, industrials and tech led sector moves. Dutch chip equipment maker ASML gains after an upgrade at UBS. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
- ASML shares rise as much as 2.9% after UBS upgraded the firm to buy from neutral, noting that the factors that have seen the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker underperform over the past year are now priced in.
- Hexagon gains as much as 7.7% after the Swedish industrial design and measurement firm announced it would sell its design and engineering (D&E) unit to Cadence Design Systems for €2.7 billion ($3.2 billion).
- Berkeley Group rises as much as 2.5% as the housebuilder reassures that trading has been stable over the first four months of the year. Peers Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, Vistry, Barratt Redrow and Crest Nicholson also rise.
- Sixt gains as much as 6.9% after being initiated with a buy recommendation at UBS, with the bank saying the market underestimates tailwinds from better fleet management as well as US market-share gains.
- Ashmore shares fall as much as 15% after full-year results from the UK asset manager missed analyst estimates.
- Temenos shares drop as much as 14% after the Swiss banking software provider dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard, naming CFO Takis Spiliopoulos as his successor and interim CEO.
- Orsted falls as much as 2.2% after the wind farm developer cut its Ebitda excluding items forecast for the full year.
- BioArctic shares drop as much as 13% after Nordea analysts cut their recommendation on the Swedish biopharma company to sell from hold, setting their price target at a Street-low.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a weekly advance, supported by a rebound in Chinese equities as well as bullish sentiment around a US-Japan trade deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.2% in Friday’s session, set to finish higher on the week. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index rose more than 2% after a three-day selloff. Stocks in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also advanced. Chinese stocks are bouncing back as investors mull the week’s events, including President Xi Jinping’s strengthening ties with India and North Korea as well as market policy proposals. Regulators are considering measures to curb the speed of the rally in its stock market, which may introduce more stable structural growth. Elsewhere in the region, Thailand got a new prime minister, with parliament electing Anutin Charnvirakul on Friday. Thailand’s stock index gained to its highest since mid-August. Shares in India traded lower, dragged by information technology firms.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged down 0.3%, trimming its weekly gain. Markets have almost fully priced a Fed rate cut in September, with a follow-up reduction cemented by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg
In rates, Treasuries are steady with yields close to Thursday’s closing levels as investors wait for the August payrolls data and the potential impact on expectations for the September FOMC decision. Treasury yields marginally richer on the day, underpinned by gilts, where a broader bull-flattening move has been seen over the early London session. US 10-year yields trade around 4.15%, with gilts outperforming by 1bp in the sector and bunds trading broadly in line. Ahead of the jobs report, Fed-dated OIS is pricing in around 23bp of easing for the September policy meeting. For nonfarm payrolls change, which was 73k in July, the Bloomberg survey median estimate is 75k, matching the crowd-sourced whisper number. French and UK bonds advanced, while bunds were little changed.
In commodities, WTI held near $63.44 and gold added about $3 to $3,548/oz. Bitcoin gained another 2%.
Today’s US economic data slate includes only the August jobs report at 8:30am. The Fed speaker slate is empty for the session, and external communications blackout ahead of Sept. 17 rate decision begins Saturday
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.1%
- CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.16%
- VIX -0.1 points at 15.24
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1203.5
- euro +0.4% at $1.1692
- WTI crude -0.3% at $63.32/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump signed an order implementing the US-Japan trade deal, imposing a 15% tariff on most imports. The pact requires Japan to set up a $550 billion US investment fund or risk higher levies. BBG
- At a White House dinner, Silicon Valley leaders including Mark Zuckerberg pledged to increase AI spending. Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on chip imports but exempt goods from companies such as Apple that are expanding their US investments. BBG
- Lisa Cook argued that Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her is a cover for his real motive — taking control of the Fed. She pointed to a court ruling that Trump’s purported concerns about antisemitism at Harvard were a “smokescreen” to target the university. BBG
- Congressional leaders begin formulating a short-term deal to avoid a gov’t shutdown on 10/1, but the two sides still have a lot to work through in the coming weeks. NYT
- China’s investors borrowed a record $322 billion to buy stocks this year, but sharp corrections this week and heightened regulatory scrutiny to cool overheated markets are now making them jittery about the leveraged bets. While risks for China’s broader financial system have been elevated for months due to deflation in the economy and a persistent property debt crisis, the stock investors’ recent actions could add more pressure. RTRS
- Japan’s nominal wages rose by a more-than-expected 4.1% in July from a year earlier, the fastest clip in seven months. Separately, prefectures nationwide will raise the minimum hourly wage by a record 6.3%. BBG
- U.K. retail sales increased at the start of the third quarter, a boost as the country looks to get some momentum into its sluggish economy. Retail sales came in at +0.5% M/M (vs. the Street +0.3%). WSJ
- German factory orders unexpectedly slumped in July, as weaker foreign orders reflected a fragile export market amid increased trade barriers. Factory orders came in at coming in -2.9% M/M (vs. the Street +0.5%). WSJ
- Trump is to sign an order on Friday to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, according to a White House official. However, a CBS News reporter noted regarding President Trump signing an executive order to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, that it will be a secondary title as an official name change requires an Act of Congress.
- US House Speaker Johnson has, in an interview with Punchbowl, opened the door somewhat to extending Obamacare subsidies that are scheduled to expire at end-2025.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the labor market might be deteriorating and inflation might be picking back up, while he added there is a bit of wait and see because of uncertainty and that rates are better indicators for the labour market than raw job growth. Goolsbee also commented that the impact of tariffs on price increases is dependent on sector and noted the September Fed meeting is a live meeting, but he hasn’t made up his mind.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.
- US President Trump is reportedly preparing to start North American trade deal renegotiations and public consultations on the key US trade deal with Mexico and Canada, which will be the first acts of a likely lengthy and contentious review, according to WSJ.
- White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement, while it added that Japan is working towards an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of US rice procurements and the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. It was later reported that Japan and the US issued a memorandum of understanding on the USD 550bln plans with investments to be made up to January 19th, 2029.
- Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy and employment, while he added the US and Japan tariff agreement is very meaningful and it is important to implement the agreement sincerely and promptly.
- Japan’s top trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan agreed to issue joint statements on the US request and they signed an MOU on Japan’s investment package. Akazawa said nothing had changed from the July 22nd agreement with regards to the USD 550bln investment package and the amended executive order does not mention most-favoured-nation treatment for pharma and chips, and will continue to push for the treatment. Furthermore, he said their stance that additional tariffs themselves are regrettable remains unchanged, as well as stated that lower auto tariffs will take effect within up to two weeks.
- Anthropic is to stop selling AI services to majority Chinese-owned groups and is trying to limit the ability of Beijing to use its technology to benefit China’s military and intelligence services, while Anthropic’s policy will also apply to US adversaries including Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to FT.
- Indian oil skips US crude and buys Nigerian and Middle Eastern oil via tender, according to Reuters sources.
- Swiss Economy Minister set to visit the US this weekend, according to EconomieSuisse.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly took their cues from the gains on Wall Street where participants digested soft labour metrics and dovish Fed speak ahead of today’s NFP report. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, tech and consumer discretionary, although gains were capped with the commodity-related sectors, consumer staples and utilities at the other end of the spectrum. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open and briefly returned to above the 43,000 level after US President Trump signed an Executive Order to officially implement the US-Japan trade deal in which the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, although some of the gains were pared amid a firmer yen and an acceleration in Labour Cash Earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood following recent tech-related support pledges by Beijing and with DeepSeek targeting an AI agent release by year-end, while reports also noted the PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity this month and that cities in China are said to examine new tactics to buy unsold homes.
Top Asian News
- PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity into the money markets this month, according to China Securities Journal.
- Japanese PM Ishiba says they are to compile an economic package this autumn.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board but dipped slightly off best levels in early-morning trade. Currently, still displaying a positive picture in Europe, but are off best levels. European sectors hold a positive bias, and with the breadth of the market to the downside fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying metals prices. Tech follows closely behind, with the sector boosted by a trifecta of factors; 1) strong Broadcom results, 2) broker upgrade for STMicroelectronics, 3) broker upgrade for ASML. On the latter, ASML was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and got a 13% boost to its PT. Analysts cite recent underperformance, and note that the “overhang” from China is well understood by investors.
Top European News
- German GDP growth is exp. to grow by 0.2% in 2025 (prev. saw 0.3%); sees growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, via DIW.
FX
- After a resilient showing in the wake of soft labour metrics yesterday, DXY is on the backfoot in the run up to the August payrolls report. For today’s release, expectations are for a modest uptick in payrolls to 75k from 73k and for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. DXY has slipped below yesterday’s trough @ 98.08 and is sat around its 50DMA at 98.05.
- EUR is currently taking advantage of the broadly weaker USD. Newsflow surrounding the Eurozone is light during today’s trade and therefore the dollar is likely to be in the driving seat for EUR/USD. Traders are mindful of French political risk at the start of next week with PM Bayrou set to face a confidence vote on Monday. Betting markets are overwhelmingly expecting him to suffer a defeat. Desks have touted a move towards 90bps (2024 peak) in the event Bayour is defeated with the risk of a venture to 100bps if fresh elections are called. The follow-through into the EUR may be limited by the looming ECB rate decision and accompanying macro projections. EUR/USD has moved back above its 50DMA at 1.1664 with clean air until the 1.17 mark.
- USD/JPY has trickled closer towards the 148.00 level to the downside after mixed data including the hotter-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings which showed the fastest pace of increase in seven months, while Real Cash Earnings unexpectedly grew for the first time in seven months. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. Subsequently, Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy. For USD/JPY, a soft NFP print could see the pair lose its footing on a 148 handle and head towards Thursday’s low at 147.78.
- GBP is firmer vs. the USD but not showing much in the way of outperformance relative to peers despite a better-than-expected outturn for UK retail sales. Commenting on the release, Pantheon Macroeconomics observes that the ONS made major revisions to retail sales today by correcting seasonal factors. As such, H1 retail sales were actually softer than initially assumed. For the BoE, following the data and the MPC’s appearance before the TSC earlier in the week, Investec now expects that the Bank rate will remain on hold over the remainder of the year at 4.00%. Cable has eclipsed Thursday’s best at 1.3460 and is now eyeing the 50DMA at 1.3477.
- Antipodeans are both are firmer vs. the USD and towards the top of the G10 leaderboard in what has been a choppy/directionless week for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Fresh macro drivers from Australia and New Zealand are lacking and as such, both pairs’ fates are likely to be determined by events stateside and broader risk dynamics.
- CAD is marginally stronger vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian and US labour market reports, both due at 13:30BST. It is likely that the latter will deliver the greatest source of traction for the pair.
Fixed Income
- USTs are contained into NFP. Holding in a very thin 112-28 to 113-00 band, but at a WTD high and comfortably above the week’s 112-15+ opening mark. NFP is expected to inch higher to 75k (prev. 73k) in August, though revisions to the series will undoubtedly draw attention, particularly as Trump has replaced the BLS head since the last report.
- OATs are firmer counting down to Monday’s confidence vote. The base case remains that PM Bayrou will lose. Thereafter, President Macron is likely to try and appoint a new PM in an attempt to bring the centrist bloc and the Left closer; current Finance Minister Lombard is a potential candidate. The bias for OAT-Bund 10yr spread is likely some further widening, though the fall of Bayrou itself is likely already priced at this stage.
- Bunds are trading in-line with USTs. Specifics for the EZ light, aside from more updates (downgrades) to the German growth outlook from domestic bodies. Elsewhere, China has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on the EZ, though this has had no discernible effect. Currently at the upper end of a 128.52-74 band, at a fresh WTD high and looking to 128.81 and 128.87 from last week.
- Gilts are outperforming, higher by just over 40 ticks at most in 90.65-87 parameters. Despite the stronger-than-expected UK retail metrics for July, the ONS’ revision YTD data has trimmed the H1 monthly average by 10bps. Revisions which have seemingly provided some bullish impetus for Gilts. Though, ultimately, the revision is unlikely to change the BoE’s trajectory and the strength may just be more a case of Gilts continuing the move seen in the last few days and paring some of the recent pressure spurred by fiscal jitters.
Commodities
- Crude futures were lower but now flat after recent declines and reports that OPEC-8 are mulling another production hike at the meeting on Sunday, while demand was also not helped by the surprise build in the weekly EIA headline crude stockpiles. In geopolitics, Russia’s Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria. This follows on from Trump saying he will speak to Putin to get the war in Ukraine settled. WTI currently resides in a 63.04-63.42/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.59-66.97/bbl range.
- Spot gold is kept afloat in rangebound trade after yesterday’s sideways price action and with the NFP report on the horizon. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,540.01-3,561.28/oz range at the time of writing, yesterday’s range between USD 3,511.75-3,564.15/oz, and with the all-time-high set on Wednesday at USD 3,578.66/oz.
- Copper futures steadily gain alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region and then Europe. 3M LME copper remains under USD 10k after recently topping the level. The contract currently trades in a USD 9,895.30-9,991.45/t range awaiting the US jobs report.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet, while he added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. Novak also said the OPEC+ deal shows its effectiveness and the level of implementation of OPEC+ deal is 102% in January-August.
- Aluminium producers seek USD 98-103/t in Oct-Dec premiums in talks with Japan, down 5-9% from current quarter levels, via Reuters citing sources.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia’s Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria
- US President Trump said he will speak to Russian President Putin in the near future and they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled.
- Kremlin’s Peskov said security guarantees for Ukraine cannot be provided by foreign military contingents, while the Kremlin said the level of the Russian negotiating team with Ukraine is already quite high and a huge amount of work needs to be done before there could be a meeting between Russia and Ukraine at a higher or the highest level, according to RIA.
- Russian President Putin says “we have open dialogue with US President Trump”; have not yet spoken to Trump. Russia assumes military contingents in Ukraine will be legal targets for strikes and sees no sense in their deployment if there is a peace deal. Adds, “we are ready for a summit with Ukraine, please come to Russia, we will provide security”; says the best place for a summit is Moscow.
- Iranian delegation will be in Vienna for IAEA talks today, via WSJ’s Norman.
- EU Energy Commissioner says if there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, “we should still not return to Russian energy”, adding this is not a temporary sanction; US supports that EU stops Russian energy imports. Will meet US Energy Secretary next week to discuss the trade deal.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says he has spoken with NATO’s Rutte, security guarantee work needs to be accelerated.
Geopolitics: Other
- South Korea, Japan and US militaries will conduct a joint aerial, naval and cyber defence exercise from September 15th.
- North Korean leader Kim returned to North Korea following a summit with Chinese President Xi, while Kim told Xi about strengthening strategic cooperation and protecting common interests in international and regional issues. Furthermore, the leaders exchanged candid opinions on strengthening high-ranking strategic communication and Kim said that North Korea will continue to support China to protect its sovereignty, territory and development interests, according to KCNA.
- US Secretary of State Rubio announced a new US visa restriction policy and will restrict US visas for Central American nationals who act on behalf of China.
- US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska, according to FT.
- US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 75k, prior 73k
- 8:30 am: Aug Change in Private Payrolls, est. 75k, prior 83k
- 8:30 am: Aug Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5k, prior -11k
- 8:30 am: Aug Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Aug Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.9%
- 8:30 am: Aug Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Today see’s the first of the three massive days for markets in the next nine business days. US Payrolls today, US CPI next Thursday and then the FOMC decision the following Wednesday. Ahead of today’s start to this run, markets have put in a strong performance over the past 24 hours, after soft data meant investors became increasingly convinced that the Fed would cut rates this month. Those prints pointed to growing weakness in the US labour market, which is top of mind given that last month’s jobs report was unexpectedly bad. So bonds saw a broad rally on both sides of the Atlantic, and the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.9bps) even closed at an 11-month low of 3.59%. In turn, the prospect of imminent rate cuts lifted equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) closing at a new record high.
In terms of that jobs report, our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to come in at +100k in August, picking up from the +73k reading back in July, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.2%. However the revisions will be of massive importance after last month saw the biggest downward revisions in over 5 years to the prior two months. As you will no doubt remember this contributed to BLS chief Erika McEntaref losing her job hours after the release. The presumptive nominee E.J. Antoni hasn’t yet been confirmed by the Senate with hearings expected this month. After last month’s report, the entire picture of labour market resilience after Liberation Day was suddenly undercut, and the current data shows payrolls up by just +19k in May and +14k in June. So as it stands, both the 3-month and 6-month average of payrolls are at their weakest levels of this economic cycle, at +35k and +81k respectively. However such numbers might still reflect a tight labour market as our economists believe that due to the crackdown on immigration and the increase in deportations, the breakeven level of payrolls that keeps the unemployment rate steady could now be as low as 50k per month.
Ahead of the big print, labour market jitters got more traction yesterday, as the ADP’s report of private payrolls was a bit weaker than expected in August, at +54k (vs. +68k expected). Then 15 minutes later, we found out that the weekly initial jobless claims hit a 10-week high of 237k in the week ending August 30 (vs. 230k expected). To be fair, there was a bounceback in the ISM services index, which rose to a 6-month high of 52.0 (vs. 51.0 expected). But even there, the employment component was still in contractionary territory at 46.5. So when it came to the labour market, it was hard to generate much of a positive narrative from yesterday’s releases.
All that helped to fuel the bond rally, with investors dialling up their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the months ahead. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by the June 2026 meeting rose +3.8bps by the close to 113bps. And in turn, that helped to push Treasury yields lower across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.9bps) at an 11-month low of 3.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.6bps) hit a 5-month low of 4.16%. Over the last couple of days, the market has been less worried about inflation but the prices paid component of the ISM services remained at a very high 69.2 yesterday even if it was three tenths less than expected and seven tenths below last month. See my CoTD from yesterday here for why that’s still a potential worrying sign for future CPI even if the prices paid number is more volatile.
Those inflationary concerns were echoed by Cleveland Fed President Hammack, one of the hawks on the FOMC, who said that “inflation is still too high, and we’re trending in the wrong direction” and reiterated that she did not see the case for a September rate cut. By contrast, NY Fed President Williams said that concerns on the labour market have ticked up relative to ones on inflation and that it will “become appropriate” to cut interest rates “over time”, though he did not comment on exact timing.
Yesterday also saw the Senate confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran to join the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is an important one given investor concerns about the Fed’s independence. In his testimony, Miran said that “If I’m confirmed to this role, I will act independently, as the Federal Reserve always does”. Miran was also questioned on his intention to take a leave of absence from, but keep his current CEA Chair role as he fills the rest of the Governor term expiring in January, though he said would resign from his CEA post if nominated for a longer term role at the Fed. Separately, we heard that the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud. That comes as we await to hear whether Cook will succeed in getting a temporary court order blocking her dismissal.
Thrown altogether, this provided a strong backdrop for equities, as investors became increasingly confident that the Fed would cut rates in a couple of weeks’ time. So that helped drive both the S&P 500 (+0.83%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.31%) to new all-time highs. All of the Mag-7 were higher on the day, led by Amazon which jumped +4.29% after Business Insider reported that it is testing a new AI-powered workspace software. Overnight the FT reports that Open AI are teaming up with Broadcom to produce a new AI chip to rival Nvidia. So it’ll be interesting to see if that creates any competition to Nvidia over the medium term. Broadcom itself issued a rosy revenue outlook overnight and was up +4.6% in extended trading. Nasdaq futures are up +0.35% overnight with the S&P equivalent up around half that.
Switching continents, and attention is increasingly turning back to France, as the confidence vote is being held on Monday in the National Assembly. We should hear the results after 5pm local time. The announcement of the vote several days ago led to considerable market concerns, as investors feared a prolonged bout of instability that would make fiscal tightening even more difficult. But since then, French assets have stabilised over recent days, as a defeat is now widely expected given the positions of the various parties, meaning that the prospect of a defeat in itself isn’t driving market moves anymore. Indeed, French OATs outperformed yesterday, with their 10yr yield down -5.0bps to 3.49%, which was bigger than the decline for bunds (-2.1bps) and BTPs (-4.4bps). So that brought down the 10yr Franco-German spread to 77bps, which is its lowest in the last week and a half. The STOXX 600 rose +0.61%.
In Asia, Chinese equities have recovered some of yesterday’s losses which came from fears of a regulatory clampdown, with the CSI (+0.92%), the Hang Seng (+0.62%), and the Shanghai Comp (+0.35%) all higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.64%) is also trading higher following President Trump’s signing of an executive order that enacts the trade agreement with Japan, under which the US will impose a maximum 15% tariff on most of its products. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.41%) is building on its previous session gains with the KOSPI (+0.08%) struggling for momentum after seeing decent gains in the previous three sessions.
Coming back to Japan, nominal wages increased by +4.1% year-on-year (compared to +3.0% anticipated), representing the fastest growth in seven months during July, and an acceleration from a revised +3.1% rise in June. Real wages unexpectedly increased for the first time this year, rising by +0.5% year-on-year in July (against an expected -0.6%), contrasting with a revised -0.8% decline the previous month, thereby strengthening the case for the BOJ to consider a rate hike in the forthcoming months. Additionally, household spending rose by +1.4% year-on-year in July (versus +2.3% expected), compared to a +1.3% increase the prior month.
Looking ahead, the main highlight today will be the US jobs report for August. Meanwhile in Europe, data releases include German factory orders and UK retail sales for July.
2b) European opening report
USTs flat & DXY lower into US NFP; NQ outperforms after Broadcom shares soar on a new AI deal – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 05:36 AM
- US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.
- US President Trump said they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled; US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
- European bourses are mostly firmer but with trade tentative ahead of NFP; Broadcom +7% after strong results.
- USTs are incrementally firmer whilst USD dips awaiting US NFP; Gilts lead after Retail Sales.
- Crude was pressured but now flat pre-OPEC, Gold holds around USD 3,550/oz into the US jobs report.
- Looking ahead, US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug).
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.
- US President Trump is reportedly preparing to start North American trade deal renegotiations and public consultations on the key US trade deal with Mexico and Canada, which will be the first acts of a likely lengthy and contentious review, according to WSJ.
- White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement, while it added that Japan is working towards an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of US rice procurements and the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. It was later reported that Japan and the US issued a memorandum of understanding on the USD 550bln plans with investments to be made up to January 19th, 2029.
- Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy and employment, while he added the US and Japan tariff agreement is very meaningful and it is important to implement the agreement sincerely and promptly.
- Japan’s top trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan agreed to issue joint statements on the US request and they signed an MOU on Japan’s investment package. Akazawa said nothing had changed from the July 22nd agreement with regards to the USD 550bln investment package and the amended executive order does not mention most-favoured-nation treatment for pharma and chips, and will continue to push for the treatment. Furthermore, he said their stance that additional tariffs themselves are regrettable remains unchanged, as well as stated that lower auto tariffs will take effect within up to two weeks.
- Anthropic is to stop selling AI services to majority Chinese-owned groups and is trying to limit the ability of Beijing to use its technology to benefit China’s military and intelligence services, while Anthropic’s policy will also apply to US adversaries including Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to FT.
- Indian oil skips US crude and buys Nigerian and Middle Eastern oil via tender, according to Reuters sources.
- Swiss Economy Minister set to visit the US this weekend, according to EconomieSuisse.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board but dipped slightly off best levels in early-morning trade. Currently, still displaying a positive picture in Europe, but are off best levels.
- European sectors hold a positive bias, and with the breadth of the market to the downside fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying metals prices. Tech follows closely behind, with the sector boosted by a trifecta of factors; 1) strong Broadcom results, 2) broker upgrade for STMicroelectronics, 3) broker upgrade for ASML. On the latter, ASML was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and got a 13% boost to its PT. Analysts cite recent underperformance, and note that the “overhang” from China is well understood by investors.
- US equity futures are ever so slightly firmer, as markets await the much-anticipated NFP report. Some outperformance in the NQ, boosted by Broadcom results. In terms of pre-market movers; Broadcom’s shares rise 7% in pre-market trade after it issued Q4 revenue guidance above expectations, and announced a new large AI customer. Elsewhere, Lululemon shares plunge more than 17.5% in pre-market trade after the company issued full-year guidance well below expectations.
- Foxconn (2317 TT) August Revenue +10.61% Y/Y; expects significant rise in cloud and networking product shipments, maintaining strong growth trend.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- After a resilient showing in the wake of soft labour metrics yesterday, DXY is on the backfoot in the run up to the August payrolls report. For today’s release, expectations are for a modest uptick in payrolls to 75k from 73k and for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. DXY has slipped below yesterday’s trough @ 98.08 and is sat around its 50DMA at 98.05.
- EUR is currently taking advantage of the broadly weaker USD. Newsflow surrounding the Eurozone is light during today’s trade and therefore the dollar is likely to be in the driving seat for EUR/USD. Traders are mindful of French political risk at the start of next week with PM Bayrou set to face a confidence vote on Monday. Betting markets are overwhelmingly expecting him to suffer a defeat. Desks have touted a move towards 90bps (2024 peak) in the event Bayour is defeated with the risk of a venture to 100bps if fresh elections are called. The follow-through into the EUR may be limited by the looming ECB rate decision and accompanying macro projections. EUR/USD has moved back above its 50DMA at 1.1664 with clean air until the 1.17 mark.
- USD/JPY has trickled closer towards the 148.00 level to the downside after mixed data including the hotter-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings which showed the fastest pace of increase in seven months, while Real Cash Earnings unexpectedly grew for the first time in seven months. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. Subsequently, Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy. For USD/JPY, a soft NFP print could see the pair lose its footing on a 148 handle and head towards Thursday’s low at 147.78.
- GBP is firmer vs. the USD but not showing much in the way of outperformance relative to peers despite a better-than-expected outturn for UK retail sales. Commenting on the release, Pantheon Macroeconomics observes that the ONS made major revisions to retail sales today by correcting seasonal factors. As such, H1 retail sales were actually softer than initially assumed. For the BoE, following the data and the MPC’s appearance before the TSC earlier in the week, Investec now expects that the Bank rate will remain on hold over the remainder of the year at 4.00%. Cable has eclipsed Thursday’s best at 1.3460 and is now eyeing the 50DMA at 1.3477.
- Antipodeans are both are firmer vs. the USD and towards the top of the G10 leaderboard in what has been a choppy/directionless week for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Fresh macro drivers from Australia and New Zealand are lacking and as such, both pairs’ fates are likely to be determined by events stateside and broader risk dynamics.
- CAD is marginally stronger vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian and US labour market reports, both due at 13:30BST. It is likely that the latter will deliver the greatest source of traction for the pair.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are contained into NFP. Holding in a very thin 112-28 to 113-00 band, but at a WTD high and comfortably above the week’s 112-15+ opening mark. NFP is expected to inch higher to 75k (prev. 73k) in August, though revisions to the series will undoubtedly draw attention, particularly as Trump has replaced the BLS head since the last report.
- OATs are firmer counting down to Monday’s confidence vote. The base case remains that PM Bayrou will lose. Thereafter, President Macron is likely to try and appoint a new PM in an attempt to bring the centrist bloc and the Left closer; current Finance Minister Lombard is a potential candidate. The bias for OAT-Bund 10yr spread is likely some further widening, though the fall of Bayrou itself is likely already priced at this stage.
- Bunds are trading in-line with USTs. Specifics for the EZ light, aside from more updates (downgrades) to the German growth outlook from domestic bodies. Elsewhere, China has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on the EZ, though this has had no discernible effect. Currently at the upper end of a 128.52-74 band, at a fresh WTD high and looking to 128.81 and 128.87 from last week.
- Gilts are outperforming, higher by just over 40 ticks at most in 90.65-87 parameters. Despite the stronger-than-expected UK retail metrics for July, the ONS’ revision YTD data has trimmed the H1 monthly average by 10bps. Revisions which have seemingly provided some bullish impetus for Gilts. Though, ultimately, the revision is unlikely to change the BoE’s trajectory and the strength may just be more a case of Gilts continuing the move seen in the last few days and paring some of the recent pressure spurred by fiscal jitters.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lower but now flat after recent declines and reports that OPEC-8 are mulling another production hike at the meeting on Sunday, while demand was also not helped by the surprise build in the weekly EIA headline crude stockpiles. In geopolitics, Russia’s Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria. This follows on from Trump saying he will speak to Putin to get the war in Ukraine settled. WTI currently resides in a 63.04-63.42/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.59-66.97/bbl range.
- Spot gold is kept afloat in rangebound trade after yesterday’s sideways price action and with the NFP report on the horizon. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,540.01-3,561.28/oz range at the time of writing, yesterday’s range between USD 3,511.75-3,564.15/oz, and with the all-time-high set on Wednesday at USD 3,578.66/oz.
- Copper futures steadily gain alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region and then Europe. 3M LME copper remains under USD 10k after recently topping the level. The contract currently trades in a USD 9,895.30-9,991.45/t range awaiting the US jobs report.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet, while he added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. Novak also said the OPEC+ deal shows its effectiveness and the level of implementation of OPEC+ deal is 102% in January-August.
- Aluminium producers seek USD 98-103/t in Oct-Dec premiums in talks with Japan, down 5-9% from current quarter levels, via Reuters citing sources.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK Retail Sales MM (Jul) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 0.3%); Ex-Fuel MM (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
- UK Retail Sales YY (Jul) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.7%, Rev. 0.9%); Ex-Fuel YY (Jul) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.8%, Rev. 1.3%)
- French Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Jul) -5.56B (Prev. -7.623B, Rev. -7.16B); Imports, EUR (Jul) 57.67B (Prev. 58.253B, Rev. 57.969B); Exports, EUR (Jul) 52.12B (Prev. 50.63B, Rev. 50.81B)
- Italian Retail Sales NSA YY (Jul) 1.8% (Prev. 1.0%); SA MM (Jul) 0.0% (Prev. 0.6%)
- EU GDP Revised QQ (Q2) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); Employment Final QQ (Q2) 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- German GDP growth is exp. to grow by 0.2% in 2025 (prev. saw 0.3%); sees growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, via DIW.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the labour market might be deteriorating and inflation might be picking back up, while he added there is a bit of wait and see because of uncertainty and that rates are better indicators for the labour market than raw job growth. Goolsbee also commented that the impact of tariffs on price increases is dependent on sector and noted the September Fed meeting is a live meeting, but he hasn’t made up his mind.
- US President Trump is to sign an order on Friday to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, according to a White House official. However, a CBS News reporter noted regarding President Trump signing an executive order to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, that it will be a secondary title as an official name change requires an Act of Congress.
- US House Speaker Johnson has, in an interview with Punchbowl, opened the door somewhat to extending Obamacare subsidies that are scheduled to expire at end-2025.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria
- US President Trump said he will speak to Russian President Putin in the near future and they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled.
- Kremlin’s Peskov said security guarantees for Ukraine cannot be provided by foreign military contingents, while the Kremlin said the level of the Russian negotiating team with Ukraine is already quite high and a huge amount of work needs to be done before there could be a meeting between Russia and Ukraine at a higher or the highest level, according to RIA.
- Russian President Putin says “we have open dialogue with US President Trump”; have not yet spoken to Trump. Russia assumes military contingents in Ukraine will be legal targets for strikes and sees no sense in their deployment if there is a peace deal. Adds, “we are ready for a summit with Ukraine, please come to Russia, we will provide security”; says the best place for a summit is Moscow.
- Iranian delegation will be in Vienna for IAEA talks today, via WSJ’s Norman.
- EU Energy Commissioner says if there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, “we should still not return to Russian energy”, adding this is not a temporary sanction; US supports that EU stops Russian energy imports. Will meet US Energy Secretary next week to discuss the trade deal.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says he has spoken with NATO’s Rutte, security guarantee work needs to be accelerated.
OTHER
- South Korea, Japan and US militaries will conduct a joint aerial, naval and cyber defence exercise from September 15th.
- North Korean leader Kim returned to North Korea following a summit with Chinese President Xi, while Kim told Xi about strengthening strategic cooperation and protecting common interests in international and regional issues. Furthermore, the leaders exchanged candid opinions on strengthening high-ranking strategic communication and Kim said that North Korea will continue to support China to protect its sovereignty, territory and development interests, according to KCNA.
- US Secretary of State Rubio announced a new US visa restriction policy and will restrict US visas for Central American nationals who act on behalf of China.
- US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska, according to FT.
- US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is firmer today and trades around USD 113k, whilst Ethereum also moves higher and marginally tops USD 4.4k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks mostly took their cues from the gains on Wall Street where participants digested soft labour metrics and dovish Fed speak ahead of today’s NFP report.
- ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, tech and consumer discretionary, although gains were capped with the commodity-related sectors, consumer staples and utilities at the other end of the spectrum.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open and briefly returned to above the 43,000 level after US President Trump signed an Executive Order to officially implement the US-Japan trade deal in which the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, although some of the gains were pared amid a firmer yen and an acceleration in Labour Cash Earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood following recent tech-related support pledges by Beijing and with DeepSeek targeting an AI agent release by year-end, while reports also noted the PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity this month and that cities in China are said to examine new tactics to buy unsold homes.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity into the money markets this month, according to China Securities Journal.
- Japanese PM Ishiba says they are to compile an economic package this autumn.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Overall Lab Cash Earnings (Jul) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.5%, Rev. 3.1%)
- Japanese Real Cash Earnings YY (Jul) 0.5% vs Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -1.3%, Rev. -0.8%)
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jul) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -5.2%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jul) 1.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 1.3%)
2c) Asian opening report
Trump flags chip tariffs, but some firms will be safe; NFP ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 01:44 AM
- US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) reiterated that he expects gradual interest rate cuts over time, while he declined to comment if the market’s September rate cut view is correct.
- US President Trump said they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled; US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
- APAC stocks mostly took their cues from the gains on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Jul), French Trade Balance, EZ Employment (Final), GDP Revised (Q2), UK Retail Sales (Aug), EZ GDP Revised (Q2), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug).
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed in the green with outperformance in the Russell 2000 while T-Notes firmed across the curve with the Dollar posting marginal gains. The focus was largely on data and Fed speak ahead of NFP on Friday, in which Challenger Layoffs accelerated while the ADP National Employment print fell below analyst expectations. Initial Jobless Claims also continued to rise above analyst forecasts, although Continued Claims declined to 1.94mln, beneath forecasts. Unit Labour Cost revisions for Q2 were revised down, below forecasts, while productivity was revised up, above the consensus. Trade data saw a widening deficit, while the ISM Services PMI report beat forecasts, with prices paid and employment little changed, but business activity and new orders accelerated. Fed speak saw Williams lean dovish, noting he sees reduced upside risk to inflation from tariffs, and that balancing has moved a bit more towards the Fed’s job mandate. However, he declined to comment when asked if market pricing for the September meeting is correct.
- SPX +0.83% at 6,502, NDX +0.93% at 23,633, DJI +0.77% at 45,621, RUT +1.26% at 2,380.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.
- US President Trump is reportedly preparing to start North American trade deal renegotiations and public consultations on the key US trade deal with Mexico and Canada, which will be the first acts of a likely lengthy and contentious review, according to WSJ.
- White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement, while it added that Japan is working towards an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of US rice procurements and the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. It was later reported that Japan and the US issued a memorandum of understanding on the USD 550bln plans with investments to be made up to January 19th, 2029.
- Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy and employment, while he added the US and Japan tariff agreement is very meaningful and it is important to implement the agreement sincerely and promptly.
- Japan’s top trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan agreed to issue joint statements on the US request and they signed an MOU on Japan’s investment package. Akazawa said nothing had changed from the July 22nd agreement with regards to the USD 550bln investment package and the amended executive order does not mention most-favoured-nation treatment for pharma and chips, and will continue to push for the treatment. Furthermore, he said their stance that additional tariffs themselves are regrettable remains unchanged, as well as stated that lower auto tariffs will take effect within up to two weeks.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum said Mexico is considering tariffs on imports from countries that do not have trade agreements, including China.
- Ecuador’s Foreign Minister said they are working towards a trade agreement with the US after meeting with US Secretary of State Rubio, while Rubio noted they have made much progress on tariff negotiations and hopes to have a positive announcement soon.
- Anthropic is to stop selling AI services to majority Chinese-owned groups and is trying to limit the ability of Beijing to use its technology to benefit China’s military and intelligence services, while Anthropic’s policy will also apply to US adversaries including Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Williams (voter) reiterated that he expects gradual interest rate cuts over time if the economy meets his forecasts. Williams also commented that they are always watching broader trends of data, not one report, and sees a gradual cooling in the job market. Williams sees reduced upside risk to inflation from tariffs and said it may take longer to gauge the full impact of tariffs in inflation data, while he added it is good to see tariffs not driving persistent inflation thus far, and he declined to comment if the market’s September rate cut view is correct.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the labour market might be deteriorating and inflation might be picking back up, while he added there is a bit of wait and see because of uncertainty and that rates are better indicators for the labour market than raw job growth. Goolsbee also commented that the impact of tariffs on price increases is dependent on sector and noted the September Fed meeting is a live meeting, but he hasn’t made up his mind.
- Fed Governor nominee Miran said the Fed does not control the long-end of the curve, and if confirmed, he will push back on the Fed straying from the mandate, while he declined to say he would advise Trump not to fire Fed members. Furthermore, Miran said no one in the Trump administration has asked him to lower interest rates and said he has not spoken with anyone at the White House about a possible nomination for a longer Fed term.
- US President Trump made a fresh plea for a ruling allowing him to oust Fed’s Cook, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Trump is to sign an order on Friday to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, according to a White House official. However, a CBS News reporter noted regarding President Trump signing an executive order to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, that it will be a secondary title as an official name change requires an Act of Congress.
- Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow: 3.0% (prev. 3.0%)
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly took their cues from the gains on Wall Street where participants digested soft labour metrics and dovish Fed speak ahead of today’s NFP report.
- ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, tech and consumer discretionary, although gains were capped with the commodity-related sectors, consumer staples and utilities at the other end of the spectrum.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open and briefly returned to above the 43,000 level after US President Trump signed an Executive Order to officially implement the US-Japan trade deal in which the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, although some of the gains were pared amid a firmer yen and an acceleration in Labour Cash Earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood following recent tech-related support pledges by Beijing and with DeepSeek targeting an AI agent release by year-end, while reports also noted the PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity this month and that cities in China are said to examine new tactics to buy unsold homes.
- US equity futures mostly lingered around this week’s best levels after recent dovish tailwinds and as key US jobs data looms.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY marginally softened overnight as participants braced for the incoming Non-Farm Payrolls report, which follows predominantly weaker jobs-related data releases on Thursday. There were also recent dovish-leaning comments from Fed’s Williams who expects gradual interest rate cuts over time if the economy meets his forecasts, while he also sees a gradual cooling in the job market and reduced upside risk to inflation from tariffs, but declined to comment on whether the market’s September rate cut view is correct.
- EUR/USD rebounded from yesterday’s trough to gain a firmer footing at the 1.1600 handle but with further upside capped by a lack of major catalysts from the bloc.
- GBP/USD mildly gained amid the softer dollar and with participants also awaiting UK Retail Sales data scheduled later.
- USD/JPY trickled closer towards the 148.00 level to the downside after mixed data including the hotter-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings which showed the fastest pace of increase in seven months, while Real Cash Earnings unexpectedly grew for the first time in seven months.
- Antipodeans eked modest gains alongside the mostly constructive mood, but with the upside capped in the absence of data from both Australia and New Zealand.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures slightly extended on the prior day’s rally owing to soft labour gauges and dovish Fed speak.
- Bund futures held on to gains after EU Retail Sales missed and heading into German Factory orders data.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global counterparts despite mixed data releases from Japan including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were contained after recent declines and reports that OPEC-8 are mulling another production hike at the meeting on Sunday, while demand was also not helped by the surprise build in the weekly EIA headline crude stockpiles.
- US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 2.415M vs. Exp. -2.031M (Prev. -2.392M).
- OPEC August Oil output +360k BPD from July to 27.84mln BPD, according to the Reuters survey.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet, while he added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. Novak also said the OPEC+ deal shows its effectiveness and the level of implementation of OPEC+ deal is 102% in January-August.
- Spot gold kept afloat in rangebound trade after yesterday’s sideways price action and with the NFP report on the horizon.
- Copper futures steadily gained alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher after returning to above the USD 111k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity into the money markets this month, according to China Securities Journal.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Overall Lab Cash Earnings (Jul) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.5%, Rev. 3.1%)
- Japanese Real Cash Earnings YY (Jul) 0.5% vs Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -1.3%, Rev. -0.8%)
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jul) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -5.2%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jul) 1.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 1.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- IDF spokesperson said their forces are operating within Gaza City and currently control 40% of the city’s territory, according to journalist Amichai Stein.
- White House envoy Witkoff met with Qatari officials in Paris and discussed with them efforts to reach a hostage deal that would end the war in Gaza, according to Axios’ Ravid citing sources.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he will speak to Russian President Putin in the near future and they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled.
- US is to cut some security funds for European countries bordering Russia, as Washington pushes NATO allies to pay more towards their own defence, according to FT.
- Kremlin’s Peskov said security guarantees for Ukraine cannot be provided by foreign military contingents, while the Kremlin said the level of the Russian negotiating team with Ukraine is already quite high and a huge amount of work needs to be done before there could be a meeting between Russia and Ukraine at a higher or the highest level, according to RIA.
OTHER
- South Korea, Japan and US militaries will conduct a joint aerial, naval and cyber defence exercise from September 15th.
- North Korean leader Kim returned to North Korea following a summit with Chinese President Xi, while Kim told Xi about strengthening strategic cooperation and protecting common interests in international and regional issues. Furthermore, the leaders exchanged candid opinions on strengthening high-ranking strategic communication and Kim said that North Korea will continue to support China to protect its sovereignty, territory and development interests, according to KCNA.
- US Secretary of State Rubio announced a new US visa restriction policy and will restrict US visas for Central American nationals who act on behalf of China.
- US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska, according to FT.
- US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA
China Tackles Price Wars As Bloated Solar Sector Amasses Huge Losses
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 07:15 PM
By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,
China has launched in earnest the drive to curb excess capacity in the solar manufacturing sector, which has doomed many companies to price wars and deepening losses.
The combined losses of six of China’s biggest solar panel and cell manufacturers doubled in the first half of 2025, to $2.8 billion (20.2 billion Chinese yuan), from the same period last year, the Financial Times reports, citing data from local financial information provider Wind.
All top Chinese solar equipment producers had already booked losses for the first quarter of 2025, blaming the continued losses on low product prices and the trade and tariff turbulence under U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Chinese solar wafers, panels, switchers, and other equipment producers have been struggling on the domestic market amid overcapacity that China’s authorities moved to address only in late 2024.
Earlier in 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association said that China urgently needs consolidation in the solar manufacturing industry as overcapacity and price wars are leading local companies to a race to the bottom.
This summer, China’s authorities are stepping up efforts to address the overcapacity in China’s clean technology industries, which undermines the profitability of solar equipment manufacturers.
Chinese authorities have realized that cutthroat competition, overcapacity, and low-quality manufacturing are hurting enterprises. Following months of introducing several measures to try to curb excess cleantech manufacturing capacity, China has now vowed to become more serious in addressing the problem.
Chinese authorities and media have intensified in recent weeks the message that the “disorderly price competition” and overcapacity need to be addressed.
In July, executives from 14 leading Chinese solar firms were summoned by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), where Industry Minister Li Lecheng called on the manufacturers to end price wars, phase out outdated and severely underutilized capacity, and shift toward innovation and value-based competition.
The minister “stressed that the next phase will prioritize product quality, stronger regulations, and sustainable development with ongoing government support,” solar panel manufacturer Huasun said, commenting on the meeting.
END
4. European affairs and NATO
EU/GOOGLE;
Trump will not be happy with this:
(zerohedge)
EU Slaps Google With Massive €2.95 Billion Antitrust Fine
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 12:45 PM
The European Commission has slapped Google with a €2.95 billion fine for abusing its dominance in the search advertising market through “self-preferencing” practices, according to a new Financial Times report. The EU ordered Google to end these behaviors within two months or risk a potential breakup. This marks one of the largest EU fines against a company, following the €4.12 billion Android fine in 2018.
EU competition chief Teresa Ribera warned Google to draw up a “serious remedy to address its conflicts of interest, and if it fails to do so, we will not hesitate to impose strong remedies.”
Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s global head of regulatory affairs, called the fine “unjustified” and said “it requires changes that will hurt thousands of European businesses by making it harder for them to make money.”
The commission’s investigation began around 2021, with formal charges issued in 2023. Brussels warned back then that the only solution for Google might be breaking up its ad-tech business.
Not since US v Microsoft, filed in 1998, has Silicon Valley been so threatened.
Meanwhile, in the US, Google earlier this week avoided a breakup order after a judge ruled against forcing divestitures of Chrome or Android. Instead, Google must share more data and stop exclusive distribution deals.
Even as Brussels and Washington ramp up antitrust actions against the tech giant, its New York-listed shares have gone parabolic this year.
end
FRANCE/SYRIA’S ASSAD
France Issues Arrest Warrant For Syria’s Assad, Who’s Believed Living In “Russia’s Beverly Hills”
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 02:45 AM
France this week issued an arrest warrant for Syria’s ex-President Bashar al-Assad, who has been living in Russia under the protection of the Putin government, after he was overthrown on December 8 by invading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces under Jolani (and backed by external governments).
A French court additionally issued arrest warrants for seven former top Syrian officials. It charges that Assad committed war crimes as his forces allegedly bombed a press center in Homs in February 2012, which killed prominent American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, along with injuring others.
Her death drove US and world headlines, and came at a height of global coverage of Syria, and at a moment then President Barack Obama began to more openly call for regime change in Damascus.
Mainstream media claimed a ‘democratic uprising’ against Assad led by ‘moderate rebels’ – though many of the same outlets would years later be forced to admit that Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked militants were at the forefront of the regime change efforts. Western and Gulf intelligence agencies were supporting and stoking jihadist factions as well.
An anti-Assad opposition outlet, Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, apparently helped with the new legal action and warrant for Assad.
It said in a statement, “The judicial investigation clearly established that the attack on the informal press centre in Bab Amr was part of the Syrian regime’s explicit intention to target foreign journalists in order to limit media coverage of its crimes and force them to leave the city and the country.”
The death of Colvin and her colleagues occurred reportedly when a rocket hit the “informal press center” on February 22, 2012. This was alleged as a “targeted bombing” – however, some independent analysts questioned at the time what Assad would have to gain from going out of his way to deliberately kill a leading journalist who worked for London’s Sunday Times.
As for Assad, he’s believed to be residing with his family at an unknown location in Moscow. He’s not made a single statement since being ousted and sent into exile. One report says:
Six months after fleeing Syria following the fall of his regime, former President Bashar al-Assad is reportedly living in opulent exile in Moscow, sheltered from justice but under intense secrecy and likely surveillance by his Russian hosts.
According to an investigative report by France Info, Assad arrived in Russia on December 8, 2024, after being ousted by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The report places him in the ultra-luxurious “City of Capitals” complex in Moscow’s business district, though alternative sources point to the elite Rublyovka suburb, often referred to as “Russia’s Beverly Hills.”
There’s been much reporting and speculation over how his government fell so rapidly, with one prime theory involving an Israeli-backed (or other foreign intel agency) hack of his high military’s command’s communications systems.
Certainly the US-led sanctions, combined with American troop occupation of Syria’s oil and gas fields, greatly contributed and kept the population in misery.
END
POLAND/EU
EU Flag Ordered Removed From Polish President’s Office: Report
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Polish President Karol Nawrocki ordered the European Union flag removed from his office, and now, other officials have followed his example, Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza reported.
The source cited by Gazeta Wyborcza stated that removing the EU flag from the office was one of the first decisions after Nawrocki moved into the Presidential Palace.
“No order was issued in this regard, but everyone considered it a signal to take down the flags wherever they were,” the source said.
According to the same report, Paweł Szefernaker, head of the President’s Office, also removed the EU flag from his office.
However, Gazeta Wyborcza may be making the issue bigger than it actually is, as the EU flag is still present outside the building, where it is supposed to be most visible.
The head of state’s spokesman, Rafał Leśkiewicz, told Gazeta Wyborcza that the EU flag “is present” in the Presidential Chancellery. He emphasized that three flags were present during Karol Nawrocki’s statements last week: the Polish flag, NATO, and the EU flag.
“The spokesman did not provide any response regarding the removal of the EU flag from the head of state’s office. Photographs from Andrzej Duda’s presidency show that the EU flag was there, standing next to the white-and-red one,” according to Gazeta Wyborcza.
The paper is not known to be friendly to Nawrocki. In a commentary published on the newspaper’s front page on Wednesday, Wojciech Maziarski writes that “the president is having EU flags displayed during some of his speeches, just for show, to mislead public opinion and lull the vigilance of those citizens who are terrified by the prospect of Poland’s strategic isolation.”
“Let’s not underestimate this gesture. It’s not a curiosity about the interior design of government offices, but a political declaration indicating the goals of the man who, by the will of a tiny majority of voters, became the leader of our country. The declaration is all the more important because it was not made public,” the columnist writes.
Notably, the columnist wrote that the democratic winner of the election only won by the “will of a tiny majority of voters.”
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israel Tells Hamas: Lay Down Arms, Free All Hostages – Or Gaza City Gets Leveled
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 11:15 PM
Israel has once again given Hamas a tough ultimatum – release all the hostages and surrender or prepared to see Gaza City leveled – according to a new Thursday Times of Israel headline.
This came after Hamas declared its willingness to release all the hostages, based on a ceasefire proposal the group said it accepted two weeks ago. Hamas has said it will agree “to enter into a comprehensive deal in which all enemy prisoners held by the resistance will be freed in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners held by the occupation.”
However, it made demands which Israel has consistently rejected – that all Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip, and that all border crossings be immediately opened for the arrival of aid.
Hamas further said it is ready to form “an independent national administration of technocrats” to run Gaza. But the Netanyahu government has quickly shot back that all hostages must be freed at once, and the group must disarm, and agree that it will no longer govern. Israel has said it will not accept Palestinian Authority governance either.
“This is more spin by Hamas, containing nothing new,” Netanyahu’s office said. This means the Gaza City offensive will more than likely proceed and continue, given Hamas is not going to lay down its arms, which they will see as certain defeat, death or imprisonment.
Netanyahu has called for “the establishment of an alternative civilian administration that does not indoctrinate for terror, does not dispatch terror, and does not threaten Israel.”
Meanwhile, even ahead of plans to take over the strip’s largest city, Israeli’s military had declared it controls about 40% of Gaza City.
It has been declared a combat zone, with civilians ordered out – particularly areas designated highly dangerous “red zones”.
This week, Axios’ global affairs correspondent Barak Ravid cited Israeli officials who say that the White House is ready to greenlight a Netanyahu-ordered seizure of West Bank Palestinian territory.
“Rubio has signaled to Israeli officials in private meetings that he does not oppose Israel’s West Bank annexations and that the Trump administration will not stand in the way,” wrote Ravid.
IDF footage purporting to show tunnels being detonated in the Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza City…
Still, Trump has cautioned that even though Israel may be winning the war, it is losing global opinion. Despite such statements, the White House hasn’t done much to bring serious pressure to bear on Tel Aviv.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Hamas publishes video of Gaza hostages Guy Gilboa-Dalal, Alon Ohel
In the video, Gilboa-Dalal said he couldn’t believe he was still alive after 22 months of war, and that he was being held in Gaza City.
Guy Gilboa-Dala, Alon Ohel.(photo credit: Canva, HOSTAGE FAMILIES HEADQUARTERS)BySHIR PERETS, LIRAN HARONISEPTEMBER 5, 2025 10:42Updated: SEPTEMBER 5, 2025 14:47
Hamas released a video of Gaza hostage Guy Gilboa-Dalal on its Telegram on Friday. In the video, Gilboa-Dalal can be seen hugging Alon Ohel.
“Time is running out,” Hamas wrote.
In the video, Gilboa-Dalal said he couldn’t believe he was still alive after 22 months of war, and that he was being held in Gaza City.
Gilboa-Dalal stated that he and the remaining hostages would remain in Gaza City during the upcoming IDF operation, and that Hamas would move them to wherever the IDF operates.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3945717&url=www.jpost.comFamily of Gaza hostage Guy Gilboa-Dalal allows for publication of part of Hamas video. (CREDIT: HOSTAGE FAMILIES FORUM)On Tuesday, Channel 12 reported that former Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obeida had planned to attempt to block the IDF’s invasion of Gaza City using psychological terror tactics involving the hostages.
In this video, Gilboa-Dalal states that the date is August 28, indicating it may have been filmed just days before Obeida’s death.
IDF lacks precise knowledge of hostages’ whereabouts
In a sharply worded statement released Friday morning, the Hostages’ Families Headquarters claimed the IDF has no precise information on the location of the hostages and warned that the Gaza operation could lead to their “murder and disappearance forever in the ruins of the Strip.”
The statement read: “This action poses an immediate and direct danger to our loved ones who have been languishing in Hamas’s tunnels for 700 days. Sadly, we have not heard of any way to protect them, nor has any plan been presented to us that would ensure that Operation Gideon’s Chariots B will not turn into ‘Murder of the Six part two,’” in reference to when the IDF found the bodies of six hostages – Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Ori Danino – in tunnels beneath Rafah.
It continued: “Forty-eight of our loved ones are at risk of being murdered and disappearing forever in the ruins of Gaza.” The families expressed outrage at the chief of staff’s decision “to cooperate with a needless war” and argued that he himself believes achievements can be reached through means that do not endanger the hostages or the soldiers.
The headquarters stressed: “What did not work in Gideon’s Chariots A will not work in Part B or in Part C,” emphasizing that a deal is already on the table, the plan put forward by US envoy Steve Witkoff, which they said could serve as the basis for a comprehensive agreement to bring all the hostages home and end the war.
Lapid: Israel must return to negotiations
“The sign of life published this morning is yet another painful reminder that Israel must return to negotiations to return the hostages and try to close a deal,” Opposition Head Yair Lapid wrote on X/Twitter.
“We must do everything to bring them home. Sending strength to the families, you are not alone, we are with you.”
IRAN
HOUTHIS
IDF confirms at least 12 senior Houthi terror leaders were killed in Sanaa strikes
In addition, Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened the Yemeni terror group with “all ten plagues,” following the third missile launch in approximately 24 hours.
IDF published footage of the location in Sanaa where IAF conducted an airstrike, killing 12 senior Houthi figures.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 4, 2025 20:09Updated: SEPTEMBER 4, 2025 21:31
At least 12 senior Houthi figures were killed in Israel Air Force airstrikes on Sanaa last week, the military confirmed on Thursday, publishing the aerial photo of the location where they were struck.
This marked the first time Israel publicly succeeded at killing any of the group’s senior leaders.
Shortly after the incident, the Houthi Supreme Political Council head, Mahdi al-Mashat, confirmed that the IAF airstrikes successfully killed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmad Ghalib al-Rahawi along wth other ministers.
At the same time, Israel’s Army Radio cited security sources that eight other senior Houthi officials were killed in the strikes.
The other 11 ministers killed include culture and tourism minister Ali Qasem Hussein al-Yafe’i, foreign affairs minister Jamal Ahmed Ali Amer, information minister Hashem Ahmed Abdulrahman Sharaf al-Din, justice minister Mujahid Ahmed Abdullah Ali, as well as government chief of staff Mohammed al-Qubaisi, and cabinet secretary Zahad al-Amadi.
Also killed were welfare and labor minister Samir Mohammed Ahmed Baja’alah, youth and sports minister Mohammed Ahmed Ali al-Muwallad, electricity, energy, and water minister Ali Saif Mohammed Hassan Shar, industry and trade minister Maeen Hashem Ahmed al-Mahakhar, and agriculture, fisheries, and water resources minister Rajwan Ali Ali al-Rubaie.
Those were still not the Houthis’ most senior officials, who include their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, as well as the group’s defense minister, military chief, and interior minister, some of whom were targets but whom the IDF missed, for some unexplained reason.
Initial reports indicated that some of those other officials may have been on their way to the gathering, where the other senior officials were struck; possibly Israel attacked before they arrived.
Israel Katz invokes Biblical plagues on Houthi terror group
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday invoked the biblical Exodus story and threatened the Houthis with “all 10 plagues” after the Yemen terror group fired a third ballistic missile in some 24 hours at Israel.
“The Houthis are firing missiles at Israel again. The plague of darkness, the plague of [the death of] the firstborn – we will complete all 10 plagues,” Katz wrote on X/Twitter.
None of the three missiles launched by the Houthis struck Israel, either being intercepted by the IDF or misfiring and landing in parts of the region before even getting close to the Jewish state.
In addition, over the past week, the Houthis launched five drones against Israel, all of which the IDF shot down.
The army announced that it shot down two drones launched by the Houthis on Thursday alone.
But Katz and Israel are up in arms about the impact, even when these aerial threats are virtually all neutralized and no Israeli has been killed by the Houthis since July 2024.
Many missiles cause millions to have to go into safe rooms and bomb shelters, just in case the generally very successful air defense misses a missile and it lands in Israel.
For much of the war, threats by Katz and other officials to strike back at the Houthis were viewed as spin, since Israel had retaliated many times in key economic areas for the Houthis in Hodeidah and Sanaa without succeeding at deterring the Yemeni terror group from additional missile fire.
According to the IDF, the missile that the Houthis fired on Wednesday morning included cluster munitions, which could have created an additional challenge, since if it is not intercepted at an earlier point than other missiles, it can split off into many smaller bombs.
On August 24, an investigation by the Israel Air Force found that a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis on August 22 contained cluster munitions, marking the first time during the war that they used this category of weapon.
Such a weapon tends to have a less harmful impact if it achieves direct hits as opposed to a classic ballistic missile.
But this kind of missile can have a higher chance of causing at least some minor harm because it splits into many parts, which can have many impacts.
According to the IDF, the unusual situation in which it failed to shoot down the missile in that case was due to some other unidentified human or technical failure and not due to the missile, including cluster munitions. Despite the missile having some impact, no one was harmed.
The Arrow 2 and 3 used to shoot down such projectiles do have the capacity to strike missiles at different, and earlier, points when necessary, but sometimes a first interceptor misses. In the case of a classic ballistic missile, shooting it down with a later, second interceptor will have the same outcome, whereas with cluster munitions, it may sometimes be too late to avoid it splitting into various parts.
END
HOUTHIS/UN
Houthis Detain 11 UN Staff, Calling Them ‘Spies’ For US & Israel
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Last Saturday, Israel conducted its major airstrikes on Sanaa which killed the Houthi prime minister, Ahmed al-Rahawi, among other top officials in the Houthi government. The operation has been widely reported as constituting the biggest single loss of Houthi leadership.
The following day, Sunday, Houthi militants stormed the offices of two United Nations agencies in the capital, specifically the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations children’s agency (UNICEF), according to UN leadership and various international reports.
These offices ere “entered by local security forces” and some WFP and UNICEF staff members were detained. This week it was confirmed that eleven of these UN staff members have still been in Houthi detention.
A fresh statement from the Iran-aligned Shia militant group has accused the detained UN aid workers of being spies for the US and Israel.
“Those who were arrested from among the United Nations employees are accused of spying for the American and Israeli aggression,” an official Houthi statement said. “Whoever has the accusations against them confirmed will be referred to trial.”
Yemeni security sources have further rounded up dozens of other people “on suspicion of collaborating with Israel” they recently told AFP.
This has been a long-running problem, as other UN workers have already long been in detention in Yemen:
The United Nations envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said in a statement: “I strongly condemn the new wave of arbitrary detentions of UN personnel today in Sanaa and Hodeida… as well as the forced entry into UN premises and seizure of UN property.”
He said that “at least 11 UN personnel were detained” and demanded that they be “immediately and unconditionally” released.
The Houthis were already detaining 23 UN personnel, some since 2021 and 2023, he added. In January, the Huthi rebels detained eight UN workers.
The WFP still says it is “urgently seeking additional information” concerning those newly detained.
Israel officials and media described that Israeli intelligence had monitored the gathering of Houthi leaders in real time on Saturday, just before the strike.
Like in Iran, it is very probable that Mossad and IDF military intelligence do have assets and spies inside Yemen. However, it’s unknown whether any would be embedded in UN programs, but this is for sure a tactic which has been used by various foreign intel services in the past – utilizing NGOs to penetrate a country.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/POLAND/USA UPDATES
Trump Ready To Place More US Troops In Poland Amid Russia Threat
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,
- Trump told President Karol Nawrocki the U.S. is prepared to expand its 8,000-strong military presence in Poland.
- The meeting underscores Warsaw’s push for stronger U.S. security guarantees amid Russia’s war on Ukraine.
- Nawrocki, a conservative close to Trump’s movement, won the election narrowly on a “Poland first” platform while pledging support for Ukraine but opposing NATO membership.
US President Donald Trump told his Polish counterpart the United States was ready to increase its military presence in the Central European nation, one of the countries on NATO’s so-called “eastern flank” warily watching Russia’s actions.
Trump welcomed conservative President Karol Nawrocki to Washington in an event highlighted by a flyover of US F-16 fighter jets honoring a Polish military pilot who had died last month in a crash.
Asked if he planned to keep US forces deployed to Poland, Trump replied in the affirmative.
“We’ll put more there if they want,” he added, while citing the United States’ “tremendous relationship” with Poland, one of the more important military and political allies of Ukraine during its war with Russia.
“We never even thought in terms of removing soldiers from Poland.”
“We’re with Poland all the way, and we’ll help Poland protect itself,” Trump added.
Warsaw has long sought an increased US military presence in Poland. The United States has based troops in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and other European nations since the end of World War II, initially to serve as a deterrence to Soviet aggression on the Continent.
The first permanently stationed US troops arrived in Poland in March 2023. There are an estimated 8,000 US troops now garrisoned in Poland, some on a rotational basis.
Nawrocki added that it is “the first time in history” that Poland has been happy to host foreign troops.
Nawrocki, a vocal admirer of the US leader, said after the talks with Trump that the two presidents had discussed bolstering troop levels, adding that Trump had strongly guaranteed Poland’s security.
“The success of his [Nawrocki’s] special relationship with the MAGA movement and with President Trump would be if the United States increased its presence in Poland,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters a day earlier — a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.
Nawrocki was elected in a narrow contest following a campaign echoing many of Trump’s slogans and had promised a “Poland first” policy, worrying some in Europe over the country’s support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
The election result dealt a major setback to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-Europe, centrist leader and vocal supporter of Ukraine who had backed Nawrocki’s liberal opponent.
Nawrocki, too, has voiced support for Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces. But he has said he opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, a view more and more Poles appear to share.
Although largely supportive of Kyiv’s fight against Russia, many Poles have grown impatient with the influx of some 1.5 million Ukrainian war refugees and the related costs in the country.
Despite some tensions within the Polish leadership, the European Union, and the United States, Nawrocki said there is unity and clarity about the Russian threat.
“Regardless of the differences that exist within the European Union, regardless of the differences that exist in Poland between me and the Polish government, I guarantee that on security matters, including at this closed meeting, I spoke unequivocally about how I perceive [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and the threat he poses to the free world,” Nawrocki said.
Trump said that “you’ll see things happen” if Putin does not move toward peace in his war on Ukraine, building on his long-standing threats of sanctions or tariffs on Moscow.
“I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand, and he’ll make a decision one way or the other,” Trump told reporters.
A White House official told AFP that Trump plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on September 4, along with other European leaders.
Zelenskyy and Kyiv’s European allies in the “Coalition of the Willing” are scheduled to meet on September 4 in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine and potential security guarantees for the country following any peace deal with Russia.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
One Of Russia’s Largest Oil Refineries Once Again On Fire After Ukraine Drone Strike
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 02:05 PM
Ukrainian drones have yet again targeted one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight – this time a Rosneft facility in the Ryazan region, which lies southeast of Moscow.
Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov in confirming the strike on what he called an “industrial enterprise” described that eight drones were shot down in the area, but which resulted in no injuries or damage to residential buildings.
The attack unleashed two active fires at the Ryazan refinery, with witnesses hearing explosions around 2 am local time, after which large flames and thick smoke were spotted above the southern outskirts of the city.
Over 90 drones in total were launched across various parts of Russia overnight. Cross-border drone attacks have been a regular feature of the war, coming nightly, and Russia has just as frequently responded with its own major missile and UAV attacks.
One Ukrainian military blogger has claimed that due to Ukraine’s sustained attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, “Gasoline (in Russia) is becoming scarce, while gas and oil are quickly running out.”
Strikes from this summer have reportedly disrupted some 20% of Russia’s refining capacity, or roughly 1.1 million barrels per day.
Ukraine’s military and media have classified Russia’s refineries as essentially military targets, given they prop up funding of the armed forces as they execute Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine:
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, with an estimated annual capacity of 6 million tons, was hit.
The plant, which has a capacity of 13.8 million tons per year, was previously struck by Ukrainian drones on Aug. 2, forcing two of its three main refining units to halt operations.
Ukraine’s military said the facility plays a role in supporting Russia’s armed forces.
Just the past month has seen at least a dozen similar attacks on Russian crude refineries and distribution sites – revealing a concerted effort to permanently damage the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war.
Newsmax writes that “The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices.” The report adds, “Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions.”
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
MUST VIEW…
17 Ways mRNA Shots May Cause Cancer, According to Over 100 Studies
ROBERT H:
“Making people take these shots was insane.
Today the only way to combat this is through Regenerative Health which is not even adequately understood or even taught. And it is not just chemical or alternative intervention as an understanding and grasp of natural healing is required as to how the body can and will repair itself given a chance. Many illnesses are diagnosed as such when the reality is parasites or bacteria that causes harm and remains untreated.”
USA ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
This piece I decided to share; I do not agree with all of its content yet there is some important content; I do support RFK Jr. however & think he is trying is a very dirty filthy fecal DC politics
with many interests & he damaged himself employing Malone the con man, this is unforgiveable by RFK Jr., slap in our faces; By William Foege William Roper David Satcher Jeffrey Koplan Richard Besser
| Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 5 |
Tom Frieden Anne Schuchat Rochelle P. Walensky and Mandy K. Cohen
The authors previously led in the C.D.C., as directors or acting directors under Republican and Democratic administrations.’
‘We Ran the C.D.C.: Kennedy Is Endangering Every American’s Health’
‘Donald Trump has admitted that his administration is being “ripped apart” by the fight over COVID-19, which caused chaos in Washington, D.C. last week, after the Daily Beast reported on secret discussions to pull the vaccine.
Trump demanded that drugmakers justify the ongoing use of their COVID vaccines by releasing new evidence in a Labor Day morning rant. It is the first major public indication that Trump is beginning to lose faith in his own vaccine program amid an onslaught of criticism from within the MAGA community.’
Also:
‘Trump Admits His Administration Is Being ‘Ripped Apart’ by Vaccine Fight’
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘We Ran the C.D.C.: Kennedy Is Endangering Every American’s Health’
‘We have each had the honor and privilege of serving as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, either in a permanent or an acting capacity, dating back to 1977. Collectively, we spent more than 100 years working at the C.D.C., the world’s pre-eminent public health agency. We served under multiple Republican and Democratic administrations — every president from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump — alongside thousands of dedicated staff members who shared our commitment to saving lives and improving health.
What the health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has done to the C.D.C. and to our nation’s public health system over the past several months — culminating in his decision to fire Dr. Susan Monarez as C.D.C. director days ago — is unlike anything we had ever seen at the agency and unlike anything our country had ever experienced.
Mr. Kennedy has fired thousands of federal health workers and severely weakened programs designed to protect Americans from cancer, heart attacks, strokes, lead poisoning, injury, violence and more. Amid the largest measles outbreak in the United States in a generation, he’s focused on unproven treatments while downplaying vaccines. He canceled investments in promising medical research that will leave us ill prepared for future health emergencies. He replaced experts on federal health advisory committees with unqualified individuals who share his dangerous and unscientific views. He announced the end of U.S. support for global vaccination programs that protect millions of children and keep Americans safe, citing flawed research and making inaccurate statements. And he championed federal legislation that will cause millions of people with health insurance through Medicaid to lose their coverage. Firing Dr. Monarez — which led to the resignations of top C.D.C. officials — adds considerable fuel to this raging fire.
We are worried about the wide-ranging impact that all these decisions will have on America’s health security. Residents of rural communities and people with disabilities will have even more limited access to health care. Families with low incomes who rely most heavily on community health clinics and support from state and local health departments will have fewer resources available to them. Children risk losing access to lifesaving vaccines because of the cost.
This is unacceptable, and it should alarm every American, regardless of political leanings.
The C.D.C. is an agency under Health and Human Services. During our C.D.C. tenures, we did not always agree with our leaders, but they never gave us reason to doubt that they would rely on data-driven insights for our protection or that they would support public health workers. We need only look to Operation Warp Speed during the first Trump administration — which produced highly effective and safe vaccines that saved millions of lives during the Covid-19 pandemic — as a shining example of what Health and Human Services can accomplish when health and science are at the forefront of its mission.
The current department leadership, however, operates under a very different set of rules. When Mr. Kennedy administered the oath of office to Dr. Monarez on July 31, he called her “a public health expert with unimpeachable scientific credentials.” But when she refused weeks later to rubber-stamp his dangerous and unfounded vaccine recommendations or heed his demand to fire senior C.D.C. staff members, he decided she was expendable.
These are not typical requests from a health secretary to a C.D.C. director. Not even close. None of us would have agreed to the secretary’s demands, and we applaud Dr. Monarez for standing up for the agency and the health of our communities.
When the C.D.C. was created in 1946, the average life expectancy in the United States was around 66 years. Today it is more than 78 years. While medical advances have helped, it is public health that has played the biggest role in improving both the length and the quality of life in our nation. The C.D.C. has led efforts to eradicate smallpox, increase access to lifesaving vaccinations and significantly reduce smoking rates. The agency is also on the front lines in communities across the country, delivering crucial but often less visible wins — such as containing an outbreak of H.I.V. cases in Scott County, Ind., and protecting residents in East Palestine, Ohio, from toxic chemical exposure.
The C.D.C. is not perfect. What institution is? But over its history, regardless of which party has controlled the White House or Congress, the agency has not wavered from its mission. To those on the C.D.C. staff who continue to perform their jobs heroically in the face of the excruciating circumstances, we offer our sincere thanks and appreciation. Their ongoing dedication is a model for all of us. But it’s clear that the agency is hurting badly. The loss of Dr. Monarez and other top leaders will make it far more difficult for the C.D.C. to do what it has done for about 80 years: work around the clock to protect Americans from threats to their lives and health.
We have a message for the rest of the nation as well. This is a time to rally to protect the health of every American. Congress must exercise its oversight authority over Health and Human Services. State and local governments must fill funding gaps where they can. Philanthropy and the private sector must step up their community investments. Medical groups must continue to stand up for science and truth. Physicians must continue to support their patients with sound guidance and empathy.
And each of us must do what public health does best: look out for one another.
The men and women who have joined the C.D.C. across generations have done so not for prestige or power but because they believe deeply in the call to service. They deserve a health and human services secretary who stands up for health, supports science and has their back. So, too, does our country.’
___
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NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
RESULTANT DROP IN YIELDS IS GOOD NEWSL
BAS GIFFIN/RABOBANK
The Drop In Yields Is Good News For Countries Forced To Deny They Need An IMF Bailout
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 05:40 PM
By Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot, strategists at Rabobank
After some difficult trading sessions, ultra-long bonds appear to have caught a bit of a break.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that US labor demand is diminishing. The quits rate had already stabilized around the 2% level, as fewer people are voluntarily leaving their job for a better opportunity elsewhere. More recently, the number of vacancies is now also declining – both in the private sector and in government– and layoffs have been edging higher through July.
The JOLTS report corroborates the employment report that got the Commissioner of Labor Statistics fired, and it further supports the case for a rate cut this month. Yes, there’s still the August non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which should give a more up-to-date view of the labor market. But will that single data point really change the Fed’s course after Powell’s Jackson Hole address?
Accordingly, the soft JOLTS data triggered some USD depreciation, as rates across the yield curve fell. The decline in 30y Treasury yields from 5% to 4.9% may also ease some of the pressures on global governments. The rise in ultra-long US rates was echoed in countries like Japan and the UK. The yield on 30y JGBs reached a record-high 3.29% on Wednesday, but the bonds are currently back off those lows. The 30y Gilt came within a whisker of 5.75%, before retreating some 15bp. And although investors remain cautious amidst concerns about debt sustainability and rising global yields, Japan’s 30-year bond auction concluded today without major hiccups.
That’s great news for those finance ministers that are now having to deny their respective countries will soon need to call the IMF for a bailout. Yet, the decline in yields is not a substitute for fiscal consolidation – without which investors will remain skittish.
If the Financial Times is to be believed, Trump’s tariffs are now a key factor keeping Treasury investors on board. According to the paper, the tariff revenues are seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill. And recall that both S&P and Fitch recently conceded that tariff revenues for the US federal government were one factor that prevented them from downgrading the sovereign.
Recently, the Court of Appeals ruled against the Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that the emergency powers law did not give the US president the legal authority to impose these tariffs. The Trump administration is appealing this decision before the Supreme Court, and the enforcement of the earlier ruling has been delayed until the Supreme Court can review the case. So, pending the Supreme Court decision, tariffs remain in effect. But if Trump loses this appeal, that key source of revenue would quickly dry out. Undoubtedly the administration will already have alternatives up its sleeve –with sectoral tariffs a key candidate– but it would unleash a new wave of uncertainty that could sap confidence.
And those US import tariffs, and the capriciousness of policymaking in Washington are also leading to changes elsewhere, some of which may have strategic importance.
This week’s warm embrace between Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi and the latter’s visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to improve relations with Beijing suggests that strategic by-effects could ultimately be a formidable ‘anti-US’ bloc that may bring together military power, manpower and economic/technological power in the future. A lot of water would still have to flow through the Moskwa and the Jangtse, but it is not something to simply brush away.
Europe is taking a much more cautious approach. It accepted a trade deal that was largely ‘dictated’ by the US. But on other fronts, it is also trying to hedge its bets. Next to working on strengthening its internal market and planning a significant acceleration in defence and infrastructure spending in the coming decade, the EU is looking to strengthen trade ties with other nations.
There appears to be some progress on the latter, in particular the negotiations with the Mercosur bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Politico reported yesterday that France has given up its resistance against the deal after obtaining reassurances, specifically on the monitoring of imports of beef and poultry. And the Polish, who had been sceptical of the agreement as well, are acknowledging that they won’t be able to form a blocking minority. That things have been moving forward on this front can be explained by the geopolitical pressures. As Trade Commissioner Šefčovič conceded: “In today’s uncertain geopolitical climate, diversifying our supply chains and deepening partnerships with trusted allies, partners and friends is not a luxury. It is a necessity.”
Speaking of Argentina, the country is accusing “a Chinese bank” of manipulating the peso exchange rate. According to the government, the bank deliberately took advantage of the low liquidity during the US holiday on Monday to put significant pressure on the peso. “This wouldn’t have happened with a BRICS-currency”?
Meanwhile, China is looking for ways to stabilize its domestic markets. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the financial regulator is concerned about the rally since early August – with some echoes from the 2015 crash, perhaps. Last month’s rally may largely be financed by margins. The outstanding balance of margin trades rose significantly, raising concerns about retail exposures and speculation on the Chinese markets. Regulators are reportedly considering their options to cool equity markets, and to discourage speculative activity in favor of more sustainable growth.
The gains in Chinese equities stand in sharp contrast to the headlines that suggest that relentless competition on selling prices could start claiming victims in various sectors, from car manufacturers to the solar power industry.
END
Is Lisa Cooked?
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 01:45 PM
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
Yesterday, the Department of Justice opened an investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook, probing allegations of mortgage fraud. This comes after a series of tweets from Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, with supposed evidence supporting claims that she was not living at her home in Ann Arbor, MI. Questions, however, still remain as to if she is even guilty, given that she has not yet been convicted (though the DOJ probe might change that) and whether this is even fair grounds to fire her from her position on the Board of Governors in the first place.
Cook’s legal team maintains that she “never committed mortgage fraud,” asserting that discrepancies in her mortgage paperwork were already flagged and addressed during her 2022 confirmation process. Indeed, her legal team has filed a lawsuit against Trump over his attempts to remove her. The rest of the Governing Board, including Chair Powell, were also named in the suit, though they are “being sued only to the extent that they are able to effectuate President Trump’s purported termination of Governor Cook.”
Whether Cook is guilty or not, there are clear political incentives for Trump to fire her. As it stands, Trump has two Governors, Waller and Bowman, ready and willing to vouch for cuts if it means it will get them on the short list for Fed Chair. Meanwhile, Stephen Miran is on deck to replace Kugler, who stepped down shortly after the July FOMC decision. With Cook still employed, Trump sympathizers are capped at a 3-4 minority. If Trump can stack the Fed with another pick of his own to replace Cook and pull in a sympathetic outsider to act as Fed Chair when Powell steps down, Trump would achieve a 5-2 majority on the Board in 2026.
But before Miran can step into Kugler’s shoes, he must be confirmed by the Senate. Yesterday, Miran testified before the Senate Banking Committee, making his case for confirmation. According to Senator Moreno, Miran is already ahead, having confirmed that Miran has “never lied on a mortgage application.” Miran made sure to emphasize his commitment to Fed independence in his prepared statement. However, Senator Warren challenged this, asking Miran several pointed questions, including whether Trump lost the 2020 election. Miran avoided a direct answer, stating only that Congress confirmed Biden’s victory. Other questions included if he believed the Bureau of Labor Statistics falsified data ahead of the 2024 election (in an attempt to sway public sentiment in favor of Harris) and if he thought tariffs had caused tangible price increases. Warren criticized Miran’s responses, saying he had “blown it” and made his loyalty to Trump clear.
Another point of contention among Democratic senators was Miran’s dual role as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) and his nomination to the Fed. Miran stated he would take an unpaid leave of absence for the remainder of Kugler’s term – about four and a half months – as advised by counsel, but that he would resign from the CEA if granted a longer term. Still, senators expressed concern that even on leave, Miran remains functionally employed by the Trump Administration and therefore may be influenced to make decisions that serve political interests rather than economic ones.
Another major proponent of “imposing bans on the revolving door between the executive branch and the Fed” is none other than Stephen Miran himself, as explained in a co-authored paper published in March of 2024. In the article, Miran (and Katz) take aim at Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, indirectly referring to him as a “Biden campaign surrogate.” While complimenting Goolsbee’s talents as an economist, Miran and Katz went so far as to argue that “to pretend that one can easily shift between highly political and allegedly nonpolitical roles without letting political biases inform policy is, at best, naïve – and, at worst, sinister.”
While perhaps a tad melodramatic, it’s an unfortunate position for Miran to be in the hot seat and have his own words spun back at him by Elizabeth Warren. But question remains if Miran is the exception to his own rule.
Across the Atlantic, European leaders gathered at the Coalition of the Willing Summit – seated on bouclé chairs – to discuss the future of Ukrainian security. According to Macron, 26 countries agreed to support Ukraine, including sending troops if necessary. Zelenskiy tweeted after the event, speaking of a “long and detailed conversation” with Trump and thanked him for his support, though he did not elaborate on what exactly that support entailed and what commitments the US would make towards Ukrainian security going forward. He did, however, hint at the continued use of US sanctions and tariffs, citing “strong economic measures to force an end to the war.” Zelenskiy also praised the NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, agreed upon in July of this year, which helps to supply Ukraine with American weapons.
In an absence of data yesterday on the Eastern Hemisphere, we once again turn our focus back to the United States. Yesterday morning, ADP employment data registered only 54k payrolls added to the economy, down from 104k the month prior, for the fifth sub-100k print year-to-date. This was followed by similarly weak data in ISM services employment at 46.5, fueling the ever-increasing likelihood of a Fed cut at the September meeting. Surprisingly enough, despite slipping yields, USD was still the strongest performing G10 currency. We also saw economic activity data from south of the U.S. border, suggesting continued economic lethargy in Mexico as gross fixed investment contracted at a rate of 6.4% year-over-year and 1.4% month-over-month in June. Meanwhile, the Canadian trade balance, which registered its deepest deficit in April, has shown some improvement in July, with the deficit creeping back up to “only” -$C 4.94 billion, which is at least better than the April 2020 deficit.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Oil prices falter and then will hurt USA shale production
(zerohedge)
Crude Prices Tumble To 3-Mo-Lows As Saudis Push To Accelerate OPEC+ Production Boost
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 09:03 AM
Oil pries are tumbling further this morning following reports that OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia wants the group to consider reviving more oil production ahead of its scheduled return at the end of next year to reclaim market share.
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, key alliance members will hold a video conference on Sunday that will consider what to do with a 1.66 million barrels a day tranche of halted supplies, having just fast-tracked the return of a previous layer over the past five months.
“Our latest soundings from the group suggest they are very much considering unwinding that final tranche” of halted supply “sooner rather than later,” Livia Gallarati, global crude lead at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview.
WTI tumbled back to a $61 handle – at three month lows – after the headlines…
While extra supply would be a boon for consumers and a win for Trump, it’s a financial threat for producers from the US shale industry to OPEC+ members themselves.
The move would underscore a clear pivot by OPEC+ toward defending market share and not prices.
Delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have said the Saudis are eager to claw back sales volumes ceded to rivals like US shale drillers. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Washington in November to meet President Donald Trump, who has called for lower fuel prices.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1676 UP 0.0017 PTS OR 17 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 148.21 DOWN 0.214 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3457 UP .0014 OR 14 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3787 DOWN 0.0019 (CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 46.24. PTS OR 1.24%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 357.25 PTS OR 1.43%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.56%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 357.25 PTS OR 1.43%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.64 PTS OR 1.24%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.56 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 438.48 PTS OR 1.03%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3549.80
silver:$40.84
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.05 DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.077% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.569% DOWN 4 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.226 DOWN 4
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.238 DOWN 7 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.519 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6595 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1722 UP 0.0066 OR 66 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.35 DOWN 1.077 OR YEN IS UP 1.077 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.550 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.520 DOWN 6 POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP .0006 OR 6 BASIS pts to 1.3809
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1354 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1271
TURKISH LIRA: 41.25 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.569 DOWN 3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.226 DOWN 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.073% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.795 DOWN 12 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.482 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3578.05
SILVER AT 11;00: 41.16
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 8.60 PTS OR 0.09%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 175.35 pts or 0.73%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 24.14 pts or 0.31%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 67.40pts or 0.45%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 381.90 or 0.91%
WTI Oil price 62.09 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.81 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.77 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 47/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.263 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.806 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1712 UP 0.0063 OR 63 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3509 UP .0065 OR 65 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6580 DOWN 6 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.543 DOWN 4 ( STILL DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR GILTS)
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.574 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.232 DOWN 3 AND VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.41 UP 1.01 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3849 UP 0.0034 BASIS PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 34 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 62.06
Brent OIL: 65.65
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS pts to 4.082
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 10 PTS to 4.775%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 3.505%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.264 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.813 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.70 DOWN 60 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.25 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.23 DOWN 0 AND 84/100 roubles //
GOLD $3594.40 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 41.00 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 209.73 OR 0.46%
NASDAQ 100 UP 19.47 PTS OR 0.08%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.19 DOWN 0.11 OR 0.72%
GLD: $ 331.05. UP 4.36 PTS OR 1.33%
SLV/ $37.21 UP 2..80 PTS OR OR 0.76%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 123.44 PTS OR 0.43%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Buy All The Things’ – Bad Data Sparks Big Week For Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks are a touch lower & DXY is rangebound in thin trade ahead of a busy week – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Aug 25, 2025 – 05:10 AM
- European bourses pare some of Friday’s gains; US equity futures are mixed, with the RTY holding afloat.
- USD struggles to recoup Friday’s lost ground in a quiet start to the week; JPY underperforms despite hawkish-leaning commentary via BoJ’s Ueda.
- USTs pause for breath following Powell-induced upside, whilst Bunds move lower.
- Crude benchmarks are very modestly firmer with focus on geopolitics; XAU is on the backfoot.
- Holiday: UK Summer Bank Holiday
- Highlights include US National Activity (Jul), Comments from Fed’s Logan.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US food industry groups are pushing for exemptions from US tariffs and arguing that products from fish to cucumbers cannot be affordably grown at home, according to FT.
- European Commission President Von der Leyen defended the EU-US agreement on tariffs which she said was a ‘conscious decision’ that avoided a trade war and called it a “good, if not perfect agreement”, according to euro news.
- South Korea’s President Lee said they will ultimately arrive at a reasonable trade deal with the US and he expects to discuss with US President Trump security and defence costs, as well as tariff negotiations.
- India’s Foreign Minister said trade negotiations are still going on and they have lines to maintain and defend, while he added the lines India cannot cross are the interests of farmers and small producers. Furthermore, he said India buying Russian oil was never brought up before the public announcement of tariffs and issues about buying Russian oil are not being used to target other major users such as China and the EU.
- French President Macron said he had an in-depth discussion on major international crises with South African President Ramaphosa, while they also reviewed economic and trade issues, as well as bilateral cooperation between France and South Africa.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have begun the week on the backfoot, as indices pare back some of the Powell-induced strength seen on Friday.
- European sectors opened mostly in the red, only a few remaining afloat including Banks, Media along with Travel & Leisure. At the bottom of the pile is Utilities due to notable losses in Orsted (-17%) after it received an offshore stop-work order from US BOEM.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY U/C) are mixed, with the ES and NQ directionally following the losses in Europe, whilst the RTY holds afloat.
- Jefferies raises 2025 year-end target for S&P 500 to 6,600 (prev. saw 5,600, last closed 6,466.91).
- TSMC (2330 TT) has stopped using Chinese chipmaking equipment at its most advanced facilities to mitigate risks of facing US restrictions and subsequent supply chain disruptions, according to Nikkei sources
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY has kicked the week off slightly firmer. Gains, however, are relatively minor compared to the losses seen on Friday post-Powell, where he signalled to a September rate cut. Focus this week will turn to PCE on Thursday. Upside in DXY is currently capped by the 98 mark. If breached, the 50DMA sits at 98.06.
- After venturing as high as 1.1742 on Friday, EUR/USD has slipped below the 1.17 mark as the dollar attempts to atone for recent losses. German IFO data today saw a strong turnout for the expectations component, helping the headline print above the market consensus. That being said, the IFO President noted that “the recovery of the German economy remains weak”. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1694 thus far with interim support provided by the 50DMA at 1.1650.
- After a strong showing on Friday, the JPY rally against the USD has paused for breath. The JPY has been unable to garner any further support from comments by BoJ governor Ueda, who stated that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages. USD/JPY has made its way back onto a 147 handle after delving as low as 146.57 overnight with a current session peak at 147.52.
- GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD with UK market participants way from market. Subsequently, newsflow surrounding the UK is light aside from comments by BoE Governor Bailey, who remarked that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic. He added that the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead.
- Steady trade for the antipodes with AUD supported by a much firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate setting. For AUD this week, RBA minutes are due on deck tomorrow with monthly CPI set to hit on Wednesday.
- Barclays month-end rebalancing model: weak USD selling against most majors. Neutral vs. EUR and JPY.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1161 vs exp. 7.1551 (Prev. 7.1321).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are essentially flat and trade in a very narrow 4 tick range (112-01 to 112-05), as US paper takes a breather from Friday’s significant upside following dovish remarks from the Fed Chair. From a yield perspective, there is some mild bear flattening, with the short-end making back some of Friday’s pressure.
- Bunds are trading on the backfoot and currently lower by around 38 ticks, pulling back from the upside seen on Friday. Currently trading towards the bottom-end of a 129.02 to 129.31 range; further downside will see a test of the round 129.00 mark, and below that 128.94 (the lower from Friday). From a yield perspective, the German 10yr is currently higher by 3.7bps at around 2.756%. Focus has been on the ECB over the weekend. Firstly, Reuters reported that ECB rate cut talks may resume after the September pause, should the economy continue to deteriorate. Elsewhere, President Lagarde said Europe’s labour market has remained resilient despite severe inflation shocks and aggressive rate hikes.
- Gilt futures trading is currently shut today on account of the UK’s Bank Holiday.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- The crude complex trades with a modest positive bias on the first trading session of the week. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region which sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal. However, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said the nation’s oil exports had not been interrupted by the disruption. Aside from this, energy-specific drivers are light. WTI trades within a USD 63.53-64.03/bbl range, while Brent trades within USD 67.04-67.50/bbl.
- Precious metals trade mixed. Palladium modestly outperforms despite weakness in auto stocks, while gold is softer amid a modestly firmer dollar and a pullback from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish address on Friday. XAU/USD currently trades choppily within a USD 3,405-3,417/oz range, towards the top end of Friday’s parameters with a high at 3,425/oz.
- 3M LME trade is closed today amid the UK bank holiday.
- Iraq raised its refining capacity to 1.3mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd in 2024, according to the PM’s office.
- Libya’s NOC said it will host the first Libyan-US energy forum soon.
- Codelco said Chile’s mining regulator authorised the restart of operations at Andes Norte and Diamante divisions of the El Teniente mine.
- Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says the nation’s oil exports have not been interrupted following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Ust-Luga.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German Ifo Expectations New (Aug) 91.6 vs. Exp. 90.3 (Prev. 90.7); Ifo Current Conditions New (Aug) 86.4 vs. Exp. 86.7 (Prev. 86.5); Ifo Business Climate New (Aug) 89.0 vs. Exp. 88.3 (Prev. 88.6)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said at Jackson Hole that the UK faces an “acute challenge” over its weak underlying economic growth and reduced labour force participation since the COVID-19 pandemic, while he said the BoE shifted its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment to looking at levels of labour force participation instead, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Lagarde said at Jackson Hole that the labour market has weathered recent shocks and proved to be surprisingly resilient in the face of an inflation shock and aggressive interest rate hikes, while she also commented that central bank independence is critically important.
- ECB’s Kazaks said the central bank entered a new monetary-policy phase where officials can focus on monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its course, while he noted there is currently no need to lower rates further as inflation is at the 2% target and recent data has not signalled a marked change in the outlook since the quarterly projections in June, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Rehn said the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further after inflation reached its 2% target and with the economy performing slightly better than thought, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB rate cut talk may resume after a pause in September, should the economy continue to weaken, according to Reuters citing sources.
- German Chancellor Merz said tackling economic woes is tougher than expected and that the US’s 15% tariffs on German exports will be a burden on the German economy, according to Bloomberg.
- Fitch affirmed the UK on Friday at AA-; Outlook Stable but stated that greater global uncertainty and weaker external demand will dampen investment growth.
- Italy’s Deputy PM Tajani said he opposes Italy imposing windfall taxes on banks, while he commented that banks should pay taxes and contribute but should not be surprised or scolded, according to Bloomberg.
- Canadian PM Carney will travel to Poland, Germany and Latvia during August 25th-27th and will meet with German Chancellor Merz, while Carney will be focused on strengthening relationships with European allies and advancing cooperation in key areas.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said it is reasonable to expect the tariff inflation effect to fade, while he said more data is needed and he will be revising the rate path view all the way up to the September meeting. Musalem said Fed policy is modestly restrictive and the policy rate may warrant adjustment if risks to the job market intensify. Furthermore, he said inflation is above target with risk of persistence and the rate path could include a pause, as well as noted that the next jobs report may or may not be enough to justify a rate cut, depending on what it shows, and he is looking at the whole rate path, not just the rate decision at one meeting.
- US Pentagon plans a military deployment in Chicago as President Trump eyes a crackdown, according to Washington Post.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s military conducted an attack on the Yemeni capital of Sanaa against targets which included a military compound where the presidential palace is located, two power stations and a fuel storage site.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader said the current situation with the United States was “unsolvable” and that they will stand strongly against the US demand to make Tehran ‘obedient’, according to Reuters citing state media.
- Iran is prepared to significantly lower uranium enrichment to prevent Britain reimposing UN sanctions, according to The Telegraph.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s PM discussed security guarantees with US special representative Kellogg.
- US Pentagon quietly blocked Ukraine’s long-range missile strike on Russia with the US Defense Department withholding approval as the White House sought to entice Moscow to open peace talks, according to WSJ. However, it was later reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has lately been using its own weapons to hit Russia and does not consult on this with Washington.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted an exchange of POWs in which they swapped 146 POWs each.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Filiia in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, according to Interfax.
- Russian air defence forces shot down a Ukrainian drone near the Kursk nuclear power plant and a fire broke out at the plant, although there were no safety threats to people or the plant. However, the Kusk acting Governor separately commented that the Ukrainian drone attack on the nuclear power plant is a threat to nuclear safety.
- Russian air defences downed a drone flying towards Moscow. It was separately reported that Ukrainian drones attacked an industrial facility in Russia’s Samara region and that debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Novatek Ust-Luga terminal.
- Norway is providing air defences worth NOK 7bln to Ukraine, which will be delivered from Germany to Ukraine, with Norway and Germany funding two patriot systems including missiles.
- Russian defence ministry says its forces captured Zaporizke in eastern Ukraine, via RIA.
OTHER
- North Korean leader Kim oversaw the firing of new air defence missiles, according to KCNA. In relevant news, South Korea confirmed it fired warning shots earlier last week at North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the border between the two countries, according to the BBC.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin moves lower and trades around USD 111k, with Ethereum also extending losses to around USD 4.5k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday, in which he signalled the potential for a September rate cut as he noted that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.
- ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high at the open but gave back a majority of the early gains as participants also digested a slew of earnings releases.
- Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but then lost steam and faded most of the early upward momentum to return to beneath the 43,000 level with headwinds from last Friday’s currency strength and with some hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at Jackson Hole who expects a tightening job market to push up wages.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with the advances in Hong Kong led by property, mining and tech, while the mainland was also lifted after China’s State Council called for efforts to bolster overall coordination and refine implementation mechanisms of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs to better leverage their role in boosting domestic demand. Furthermore, participants digested several earnings releases and the PBoC announced last Friday to conduct CNY 600bln of 1-year MLF loans for today.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda said at Jackson Hole that barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and put pressure on wages, while he added that competition for workers has increased and more people are switching jobs. Ueda said they will continue to monitor the labour market developments closely and incorporate that into monetary policy. Furthermore, he said wages are now rising and labour shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues, as well as noted that the demographic shift that began in the 1980s is producing acute labour shortages and persistent upward pressure on wages.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said Japan agreed to strengthen security and economic ties with South Korea, while South Korean President Lee said they agreed on South Korea-Japan relations, which are important in a fast-changing global political landscape.
- Shanghai lifts the home buying limit in the outer suburbs effective August 26th, according to Bloomberg.
- RBNZ opened consultation on New Zealand’s capital settings for deposit takers with the review to consider whether current prudential capital requirements are set at the right level, while the central bank proposed to lower the minimum capital requirement to NZD 5mln.
- Fitch affirms India at BBB-; outlook stable.
big news//jobs growth collapses to just 22,000
(zerohedge)
US Job Growth Collapses To Just 22K, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% Putting 50bps Rate Cut In Play
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 08:42 AM
Ahead of today’s jobs report, consensus was that a print between 40K and 100K is largely priced in and greenlighting a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in two weeks, and that we would need a real outlier number for the Fed to either cut 50bps… or not hike. Well, we got a real outlier when moments ago the BLS reported that in August the US added only 22K jobs, a big drop from the upward revised 79K (from 73K previously) but more importantly June was revised from 27K to -13K, ushering in the first negative jobs print since 2020.
The number came in far below Wall Street estimates of a 75K print. In fact, it was higher than just one of the 80 estimates provided to Bloomberg.
Developing.
USA DATA RELEASES
JOBS REPORT
Putrid Payrolls: Job Growth Collapses To Just 22K, Unemp Rate Rises To 4.3% Putting 50bps Rate Cut In Play
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 08:42 AM
Ahead of today’s jobs report, consensus was that a print between 40K and 100K is largely priced in and greenlighting a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in two weeks, and that we would need a real outlier number for the Fed to either cut 50bps… or not hike. Well, we got a real outlier when moments ago the BLS reported that in August the US added only 22K jobs, a big drop from the upward revised 79K (from 73K previously) but more importantly June was revised from 27K to -13K, ushering in the first negative jobs print since 2020.
With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported, continuing to trend of negative revisions into a labor market slowdown.
The revisions pushed the 3-month average jobs print to just 29K, which however was a tiny improvement from the 28K in July.
Just as importantly, the payrolls number came in far below Wall Street estimates of a 75K print. In fact, it was higher than just one of the 80 estimates provided to Bloomberg.
The household survey was not quite so bad, and in fact the number of employed workers rose by 288K to 163.394MM, the biggest increase since April.
Yet despite the modest improvement in the Household survey measure of Employed workers, the number is still below the April 2025 high.
The number of unemployed workers also increased, rising from 7.236MM to 7.384MM, and with the labor force increasing to 170.778MM, it meant the unemployment rate also rose to 4.3% (4.324% to be precise) from 4.2%, in line with expectations. Among major groups, the unemployment rates for blacks rose to 7.5%, the highest since 2021; All other unemployment rates also rose modestly: Whites (3.7 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.3 percent).
At the same time, the participation rose modestly to 62.3% from 62.2%, reversing last month’s drop to the lowest level in three years; the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.6 percent. Both measures have declined by 0.4 percentage point over the year.
And while U3 unemployment came in line, U6 or underemployment was far worse, rising to 8.1%, the highest since Oct 2021
Looking at hourly earnings, while the sequential change came in as expected, increasing by 0.3%, same as last month and as expected, the annual increase of 3.7% was a drop from 3.9% last month and below the 3.8% estimate.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.2 hours for the third month in a row. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged down to 40.0 hours, and overtime remained unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours in August.
But to get to the ugliest component of today’s jobs report one had to dig deeper, only then one would find that the number of full-time jobs tumbled by 357K, the second consecutive month of sharp full-time job losses… while part-time jobs surged by 597K, the biggest increase since February.
It gets worse: after making some modest improvements in recent months, the number of native born workers tumbled by 561K to 132.474 million; this was the biggest drop since August 2024. At the same time foreign born workers increased by 50K, the first increase since March.
Last but not least, the number of multiple jobholders unexpectedly soared by over 443K to 8.785 million. This was the biggest monthly increase since Covid, and clearly yet another indication of just how bad the jobs report is.
Here are some more details about today’s jobs report:
- Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 199,000 in August to 786,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. New entrants are unemployed people who are looking for their first job.
- The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in August but has increased by 385,000 over the year. In August, the long-term unemployed accounted for 25.7 percent of all unemployed people.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
- The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 6.4 million, changed little in August but was up by 722,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 514,000.
Finally, looking at the composition of the August jobs, the BLS notes that a modest gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
- In August, health care added 31,000 jobs, below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in ambulatory health care services (+13,000), nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000), and hospitals (+9,000).
- Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in August (+16,000), reflecting continued job growth in individual and family services (+16,000).
- Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January.
- In August, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction declined by 6,000, after changing little over the prior 12 months.
- Wholesale trade employment continued to trend down in August (-12,000) and has fallen by 32,000 since May.
- Manufacturing employment changed little in August (-12,000) but is down by 78,000 over the year. Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing declined by 15,000 over the month, in part due to strike activity.
- Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other services.
And visually:
Putting it all together, this was easily the ugliest jobs report we have seen since covid (relative to expectations), and it seems to have had two intentions: i) kitchen-sink the jobs numbers (especially with next week’s upcoming annual jobs revisions) and ii) cement a 25bps rate cut and put a 50bps rate cut in play. Judging by the market reaction…
… it achieved both.
AND
THIS SIGNALS THE FOLLOWING;
Rate-Cut Odds Surge After Soft Labor Market Signals; Here’s What Wall Street Thinks…
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 09:33 AM
Rate-cut expectations surged this morning following the weak labor market signals from the payrolls report with 2025 now pricing in 3 full cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
As we predicted, the chance of a 50bps cut in September are also rising, but for now it appears 25bps in each of Sept, Oct, and Dec is the most likely outcome…
Source: Bloomberg
As The Wall Street Journal’s fed Whisperer, Nick Timiraos, pointed out in a brief post on X:
“Weak hiring this summer will make it easier for Fed policymakers to agree on a 25 bps cut at their meeting in two weeks but further muddies the debate over the pace of cuts after that.”
Consensus across Wall Street appears to be that Powell will cut in September, and continue to cut at each meeting this year at least:
Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities:
“The job market has weakened and the transition between public to private sector job growth will require lower rates. The Fed will begin to lower rates this month and we expect a string of more cuts along the way. The forward curve has us down to neutral by the end of 2026 but that timeline could very well be sooner.”
BI chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey has a first take:
“The bull steepening is no surprise given the overall payroll report. Negative revisions continue and hourly earnings growing more slowly point to the potential for a slowing in non-debt-fueled consumption growth in the next few quarters.”
“Bull steepening should be maintained for the present, and we still target 10-year yields below 4% by year end, with 10-year yields having about a 0.5 beta to 2-year yields.”
Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak:
“[Bad news is good news for stocks] is the initial response. However, history tells us that if lower yields are signaling a significant slowdown in growth, it’s negative for stocks. So, we’re going to see how the market acts once the cash market opens.”
Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist:
“Dollar bears have just been given another lift, with the August employment report which will not only validate the September 25-bp Fed rate-cut talks, but is also likely to entertain speculation of more aggressive Fed easing going forward.”
“This confirms our US yield-driven euro-dollar bullish case as we consider 4Q, with a break of $1.1750 now looming. Note that the euro context isn’t rosy at all — see French politics in particular — but for now, we expect this pair to be mainly driven by US considerations.”
A jumbo rate cut?
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, goes there in his reaction to the data.
“A 50 basis-point cut is back on the table. Everyone was probably more keyed-in on the revisions than the headline number. With revisions, there was nearly net zero job creation. Aggregate weekly hours were unchanged in August with broad declines across industries. Anything trade or tariff related saw declines in aggregate weekly hours worked.
The diffusion index for private sector employment has been below 50, so it’s a top-heavy economy. You need some better breadth to remove the economic anxiety out there.”
BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg on the payrolls print on Bloomberg TV:
“What it really puts on the table is a Fed that gets back in motion for cutting rates, and if the economy is not falling off a cliff, that’s a pretty good combination for risk assets.”
Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro says the numbers are a comprehensive defeat of the policy hawks and growth bulls.
“To borrow from Powell, now is the time to unleash the great monetary power of the United States.”
Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management:
“Today’s report just about strikes a balance between reinforcing market expectations for a sequence of Fed rate cuts and not yet inviting renewed concerns around recession, so the broad market response should be mildly positive. But concerns about the health of the economy are starting to creep in and a further deterioration in the health of the labor market would soon tip the balance to ‘bad news is simply bad news.’”
Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree says,
“The markets are leading the Fed and the jobs report was the last data point needed for a quarter point cut this month. A half point is not out of the question, but at this stage of the game I would still lean to a quarter-point cut, now if we had seen a negative payroll, then a 50bps cut would be on the table.”
Ali Jaffery‘s take at CIBC Capital Markets:
While the macro case for easing policy isn’t so clear cut, with the economy looking fairly resilient in the face of a major trade war and an immigration crackdown, the politics of monetary policy are getting complicated and it’s likely not worth defending keeping rates on hold.
Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research LLC, gave ger first thoughts on the report on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance:
“First take is another weak summer employment report. Immigration seems to be having another impact on the data. When you look at the household survey, the foreign-born population was again, sort of the weaker part of it.”
“On Sept. 9, once we get the annual preliminary benchmark revisions, that’s going to be revised down to the tune of something like 600,000 — that’s going to be another really bad negative headline. Then beyond that, we think that the signs will look a little bit better.
Finally, the factory sector is clearly showing pain and reflects ongoing uncertainty linked to the new tariffs and the need for lower borrowing costs, Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul says in a release:
“The August jobs report should hopefully spur on two important actions. First, a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Second, concluding tariff actions and trade deals to provide businesses with the certainty they need to hire, invest in new capital equipment, and realign supply chains. Manufacturing will be treading water until we see those changes.”
For now, stocks are higher, Treasury yields are significantly lower (and bull steepening), gold hit a new record high, and bitcoin is surging .
end
AND
this causes the dollar to collapse:
(Market Ear)
Tipping Point: Dollar Nears Breakdown as Hedging Activity Surges
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 14:33
Make or break?
DXY reversed on the negative trend line and the 50 day some 2 weeks ago and is now approaching the “magical” 99 area again. Make or break?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Downside hedging
Everybody trying to hedge that dollar downside risk.
Source: Bloomberg/Nomura
The rates connections
The gap between the 10 year and the DXY has widened again.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Reserve currency status…
…usually lasts a century. Chart 2 shows American dominance since WW2.
Source: TS Lombard
Source: TS Lombard
A 40% USD decline would eliminate the trade deficit
Dollar strength has been the main driver of the US external deficit, tied to fiscal/monetary policy and foreign saving.
A full reversal of the dollar’s 40% real appreciation could bring the deficit to zero—but tariffs alone won’t get us there.
Tariffs might help if retaliation is muted and the dollar keeps falling (as DB expects), but higher prices and slower US growth would be the trade-off. (Saravelos)
Source: DB
Tracking
USD tracking ETF inflow momentum.
Source: JPM
More tracking
USD TWI has co-moved with the US’ share of global equity ETFs over longer periods…
Source: JPM
USD historically roughly 5-10% overvalued
Real effective exchange rate relative to previous ten year.
Source: BofA FX
More weakening
MS expects the USD to weaken by around 10% to end 2026…and see the EUR gaining the most vs the USD.
Source: MS
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Trump’s Fed Pick Stephen Miran Commits To Central Bank Independence
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 03:20 PM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,
Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to temporarily serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, committed to preserving the central bank’s independence in testy exchanges with senators.
Trump announced his nomination of Miran, the current head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, early last month to temporarily fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler.
Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, Miran expressed the necessity for monetary policy independence as lawmakers centered their questions on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy.
“In my view, the most important job of the central bank is to prevent depressions and hyperinflations. Independence of monetary policy is a critical element for its success,” he said in his opening remarks on Sept. 4.
“I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does,” Miran told senators, adding that he welcomes listening to a diverse array of opinions “to challenge my own views and interrogate them.”
Democratic senators, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), were unconvinced, stating that Miran would serve as a proxy for the president and erode Fed independence.
Accentuating her point, Warren asked Miran whether he thought Trump had lost the 2020 presidential election and if he believed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July jobs numbers had been manipulated.
Miran replied that President Joe Biden “was certified by Congress” and that the federal agency has struggled with deteriorating data quality.
“Dr. Miran, you have made clear that you will do or say whatever Donald Trump wants you to do or say,” Warren, the top Democrat on the committee, said.
“That may work in a political position, but it takes an axe to Fed independence, and will make life far more expensive for Americans.”
Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) questioned whether administration officials, “formally or informally,” had asked Miran to vote to lower interest rates.
“No,” Miran answered.
Miran is likely to be confirmed as Republicans control the Senate Banking Committee and hold 53 seats in the upper chamber. All Senate GOP lawmakers voted to confirm Miran, who served in the president’s first term, to chair the president’s key economic advisory group.
Still, many of them encouraged Miran to stay committed to doing what he thinks is right rather than following the wishes of politicians.
“There’s nothing wrong with politicians in Washington offering their opinions. You can’t stop them,“ Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told Miran.
”But we need a monetary plan that was put together by something other than vodka and darts, and that’s what we have the Federal Reserve for.”
His ascent to the Fed Board could happen before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Sept. 16 and 17. Investors overwhelmingly anticipate that monetary policymakers will vote to lower interest rates by a quarter point for the first time since December. The institution has been on hold this year to determine the potential effects of Trump’s sweeping global tariff plans.
If confirmed, Miran would serve on the Fed Board only until Jan. 31, 2026. Trump could then renominate Miran to complete a full 14-year term or select another individual for the position.
Miran revealed that he would only be taking an unpaid leave of absence from the White House because his term would only last four months. He noted that he would resign if nominated for a longer term.
This sparked further scrutiny from Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who called it “ridiculous.”
“You are going to be technically an employee of the president of the United States, but an independent member of the board of the Federal Reserve,” Reed said.
END
Trump Tariffs Go From Terriying To Indispensable To Prevent A Bond Market Crash
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 10:20 PM
How long does it take for conventional wisdom to make a 180 degree U-turn? In the case of anything Trump related, it’s just under 6 months.
It was in early April, just after Liberation Day’s reciprocal tariffs were announced, that US bond markets suddenly cratered, sparking a collapse in hundreds of billions of basis trades, and triggered fears of a global economic shock. That’s when tariffs were widely seen as bad and anyone who dared to say it’s never that black or white – such as this website – were blasted as economic illiterates. Well, fast forward to today when quietly conventional wisdom has been turned on its head and the mere possibility of tariffs getting pulled is now seen as one of the biggest threats to the stability of the bond market!
That’s right: if the Financial Times is to be believed – and it is, since it loathes Trump with a passion and would never say anything even remotely complementary if it could avoid it – Trump’s tariffs are now a key factor keeping Treasury investors on board (the same tariffs that were widely blamed for the relentless selling back in April). According to the paper, the tariff revenues – which so many of the establishment economists never even considered in April – are now seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill, and investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump’s tax cuts and keep a lid on US borrowing.
“The only way I can see for the US government to reduce its outstanding debt in the near term is to use the tariff revenue,” said Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, citing also revenues from chipmakers’ China sales. “If all of the sudden the tariff revenue will not be there, that is a problem.”
Not only that, but as we noted two weeks ago, both S&P and Fitch recently conceded that tariff revenues for the US federal government were one factor that prevented them from downgrading the sovereign.
The Congressional Budget Office last month forecast Trump’s tariffs would boost US government revenues by $4tn over the coming decade. That would help pay for tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1tn over the same period.
The shift in market sentiment comes after months of turmoil in Trump’s economic strategy, including his trade war with trading partners such as China and his attacks on the US Federal Reserve.
Indeed, the appeals court ruling – which overturns Trump’s tariffs – was the catalyst behind the US Treasury bond sell-off on Tuesday and Wednesday, analysts said, as investors worried that reduced tariff revenues would lead to a greater glut of Treasury issuance.
Thierry Wizman, a global rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said: “If the bulk of Trump’s tariff programme is nullified by the courts some analysts will cheer, inflation will subside, growth may improve, and the Fed may be more inclined to ease monetary policy. But if the focus is on debt and deficits at that time, the bond market may riot.”
He added: “The risk that tariffs go away but the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] stays may become the dominant risk for [US Treasuries] over the next few weeks.”
Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, said there was “a hope that tariff revenue can help control the budget deficit”.
To be sure, even with tariff revenues, investors warn about the daunting scale of the US government’s borrowing needs.
Des Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said if the tariffs “were put on pause, it deprives Uncle Sam of a revenue source”. But the “bigger negative picture” is the sheer scale of government spending, he said. Without tariff revenue, the CBO expects US debt relative to GDP to surpass its second world war peak by 2029.
“It’s helpful in plugging a gap, but there’s still a big issue in America spending much more than it’s receiving,” Lawrence said, and he too is right as we showed a few weeks ago when we demonstrated that despite record tariff revenue, the US budget deficit hit a whopping $291bn in July, the second highest deficit for the month on record.
And now the fate of the US bond market is in the hands of a handful of supreme court justices, whose decisions are never taken on the merits of the underlying argument but are purely and unapologetically political. Last week, the Court of Appeals ruled against the Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that the emergency powers law did not give the US president the legal authority to impose these tariffs. And last evening, the Trump administration appealed this decision before the Supreme Court, and the enforcement of the earlier ruling has been delayed until the Supreme Court can review the case. So, pending the Supreme Court decision, tariffs remain in effect.
But if Trump loses this appeal, that key source of revenue would quickly dry out. Undoubtedly the administration will already have alternatives up its sleeve –with sectoral tariffs a key candidate– but it would unleash a new wave of uncertainty that could sap confidence. No wonder Trump has said that if the Supreme Court does not overturn the Appeal court decision, the consequences would be catastrophic for the US: he is, after all, correct.
END
UBS: Orsted Lawsuit Signals Wind Talks With Trump Admin “Not Going Well”
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Revolution Wind LLC, co-owned by Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners, sued the Trump administration on Thursday over last month’s order halting construction of the 80%-complete Revolution Wind offshore project off Rhode Island. The multi-billion-dollar, 65-turbine wind farm was suspended by the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which cited unspecified national security concerns.
The Orsted-backed wind farm venture sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington. This came shortly before the attorneys general of Connecticut and Rhode Island announced lawsuits of their own in the U.S. District Court for Rhode Island to overturn the stop-work order on the wind farm project, which is slated to produce intermittent electricity (not reliable) for more than 350,000 homes.
“The Stop Work Order is invalid and must be set aside because it was issued without statutory authority, in violation of agency regulations and procedures and the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause, and is arbitrary and capricious,” the lawsuit stated.
The lawsuit continued, “If unabated, the Stop Work Order will inflict devastating and irreparable harm on Revolution Wind. Revolution Wind has already spent or committed approximately $5 billion on the project, and will incur over $1 billion in breakaway costs if the project is cancelled, all of which Revolution Wind may lose if the unlawful Stop Work Order remains in effect.”
Last month, the BOEM issued a directive (read here) to halt all offshore construction activities on the Revolution Wind project. The order stems from a Presidential Memorandum issued on Jan. 20, which triggered a broad review of renewable projects on the Outer Continental Shelf.
BOEM listed items it wanted to address with the project:
- Environmental protections
- National security concerns (e.g., interference with U.S. defense/naval activity in the exclusive economic zone, high seas, territorial seas).
At a press conference earlier, Connecticut Attorney General William Tong called Trump’s stop order an “all-out war” on wind power, adding, “This is an utterly unlawful and baseless — and frankly senseless and stupid stop-work order.”
While White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Bloomberg in a statement, “President Trump’s day one executive order instructed agencies to review leases and permitting practices for wind projects with consideration for our country’s growing demands for reliable energy, effects on energy costs for American families, the importance of marine life and fishing industry, and the impacts on ocean currents and wind patterns.”
Here’s UBS analyst Dominic Ellis’ first take on the legal spat:
Orsted announced it is suing the Trump administration in an effort to get the stop work order on Revolution Wind removed. This does not look to me like a sign that behind the scenes negotiations are going well. From memory, Equinor threatened a lawsuit over Empire Wind but never formally filed before the suspension was lifted. Though over 68% of Orsted shareholders have indicated they will vote to approve the rights issue at tomorrow’s EGM, the key question now is how soon (if at all) Orsted can resolve its issues in the U.S. The lawsuit suggests a resolution is not imminent, in my opinion, though obviously its impossible to tell from the outside looking in. Connecticut and Rhode Island have also both announced they are suing the administration.
Last month, Orsted shares in Denmark plunged due to the combination of a rights issue, a halt order on the wind farm, and overall pessimism across the green energy sector.
- Wind Giant Orsted Suffers Worst Week On Record As Green Energy Demise Accelerates
- Orsted Shares Crash Below IPO Price On “Unexpected” Rights Issue
- Orsted Shares Crash To Record Lows After Trump Halts Rhode Island Offshore Wind Project
The Trump administration is prioritizing reliable, cheap fossil fuel power generation, along with a nuclear plant pipeline that is expected to be operational later this decade, extending into the 2030s. All of this stable power is what’s needed on fragile grids nationwide amid the AI data center supercycle. Green is too fragile. We wouldn’t be surprised if a few ‘Solyndra-style‘ implosions rock the green industry within Trump’s second term.
END
END
huge trouble ahead in Michigan; largest Muslim population in the USA
DEARBORN MICHIGAN;
Sharia Law? US Police Dept Introduces Arabic Patch
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 09:50 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A police department in Michigan has introduced a uniform patch that has Arabic writing on it, prompting fierce backlash.
Dearborn Heights Police Department is believed to be the first in the country to have a patch with a language other than English.
Reports indicate that the patch was designed by an Officer Ermily Murdoc, who claims to have created it to “reflect and honor the diversity of our community – especially the many residents of Arabic descent who call Dearborn Heights home.”
The patch includes the Michigan seal in the center with the words ‘Dearborn Heights Police’ written in both English and Arabic.
It was introduced under the authority of recently appointed Police Chief Ahmed Haidar.
“The Dearborn Heights Police Department is proud to share a new optional patch that our officers may wear as part of their uniform,” a Facebook statement announced.
“By incorporating Arabic script alongside English, this patch represents unity, respect, and our shared commitment to service,” it adds.
“Our officers proudly serve all members of our community, and this new design is another way we continue to celebrate the rich cultures that make our city unique,” the statement further asserts.
The department quickly disabled comments on the Facebook post due to an influx of negative feedback, including accusations of promoting “Sharia law” or enabling a “cultural takeover.”
Dearborn Heights has a combined Middle Eastern and North African population of around 40 percent, while nearby Dearborn has a majority 55 percent.
Both areas, along with other towns such as Hamtramck, have attracted Arab communities with immigration from Lebanon, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern countries.
While there are Arabic speaking Orthodox Christians in Dearborn from earlier immigration movements in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, they have become proportionally smaller due to immigration trends favoring Muslim-majority groups, which now define much of the city’s Arab identity.
This has sparked controversies, such as over public broadcasts of the Islamic call to prayer.
Many Americans are… not best pleased with this latest development, to say the least.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
end
Six Flags face bankruptcy with their huge $500 milllion debt>>
(zerohedge)
Six Flags Faces Bankruptcy Fears After $500M Debt And Park Closures
Friday, Sep 05, 2025 – 01:25 PM
We’re not sure what more of a comment about discretionary spending one would need…
Six Flags, less than a year removed from its merger with Cedar Fair, is drowning in debt, closing parks, and facing warnings of bankruptcy, according to The Sun.
The company has racked up $500 million in debt, seen revenue fall by $100 million in Q2, attendance drop 9%, and season pass sales decline 8%. Two parks have already been shut down, with California’s Great America set to close in 2027.
“The whole company needs to be reimagined,” said Dennis Speigel of International Theme Park Services, who warned “bankruptcy is not out of the question.”
Citi analyst James Hardiman agreed, saying “everything should be on the table as we think about asset sales,” though flagship parks like Cedar Point are expected to survive.
The July 2024 merger was billed as a growth engine, with executives projecting 6% attendance gains in 2025. Instead, attendance fell 9%. “It’s about the biggest miss I’ve ever seen in the theme park industry versus expectations,” Hardiman said.
The Sun writes that leadership turmoil has added to the crisis. CEO Richard Zimmerman announced he will step down at year’s end, a move Hardiman called “odd,” especially mid-season. Chairman Selim Bassoul remains in charge.
Six Flags blames poor weather for disrupting nearly 50 operating days, but critics say demand for multi-park passes was overstated. Controversial new fees for haunted houses at Halloween events have further angered passholders.
Stock prices have plunged to $23.84, less than half their pre-merger value. Two law firms are already exploring potential securities-fraud lawsuits.
“If I were running the company, there are 10 to 12 parks I would keep, pay off debt and start over,” said Speigel. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you see the company on the precipice of bankruptcy to get that debt off the books.”
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON:
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 5, 2025 Issue 7570 | Independent View of the News |
| US economic data released on Thursday was mixed.Aug ADP Employment Change 54k, 68k expectedQ2 Nonfarm Productivity 3.3%, 2.7% exp, Unit Labor Costs 1.0%, 1.2% expInitial Jobless Claims 237k, 230k exp, Continuing Claims 1.94m, 1.96m expJuly Trade Balance -$78.3B, -$77.9B expAug S&P Global US Services PMI 54.5, 55.4 exp, Composite PMI 54.6, 55.3 expAug ISM Services Index 52, 51 exp, Prices Paid 69.2, 69.5 exp, New Orders 56, 51.1 exp, Employment 46.5, 46.7 exp ADP Employment Change: Leisure & Hospitality +50k, Construction +16k, Trade, Trans & Utes -17k https://adpemploymentreport.com/ ISM Report https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-52-august-2025-ism-services-pmi-report-302545705.html @GlobalMktObserv: This is a staggering economic experiment. The Bank of Japan owns government bonds, ETFs, and REITs worth a WHOPPING 117% of Japan’s GDP. By comparison, the European Central Bank’s balance sheet size relative to GDP is 41%, and the Fed’s is 22%. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1963451956103450785 @dailychartbook: “The price of steaks is rising rapidly. Live cattle prices have nearly doubled over the past five years and are at all-time highs, largely due to the US cattle herd being at its smallest size in decades, driven by years of drought and high feed costs.” – Apollo Sløk https://t.co/GZfrA9fsYC ESUs vacillated between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening on Thursday until they spiked from 6454.50 at 20:00 ET to 6471.25 at 20:22 ET. ESUs then traded sideways, with a slight upward bias, until they commenced a near vertical rally after 10:20 ET. The mostly sideways trading from the Nikkei opening to the rally that commenced near 10:20 ET was due to professional traders being cautious ahead of the important August Employment Report due today. Visions of a 50bp rate cut on downward NFP revisions for July and June that could exceed the -258k consensus provoked rabid ESU & stock buying. ESUs hit an NYSE session high of 6512.75 at 15:59 ET. Positive aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index closed above 6500 and .22 above its previous record close of 6501.86. The DJIA was the strongest major US equity index. USZs rallied 19/32; Gold declined moderately. Negative aspects of previous session Beaucoup traders are long stuff for an expected huge downward NFP revision. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is ‘good’ Aug NFP good or bad for stocks and vice versa? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6483.53 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6502.54; 6445.98 Fed Balance Sheet: -$1.313B; Reserves: -$43.266B Today – The August Employment Report should have significant impact. Fed officials have acknowledged that the labor market is softening, and it is a main concern along with inflation. Traders, great and small are long on expectations of a soft August Employment Report and/or huge downward NFP revisions for July and June. If revisions are the expected -258k or less, there should be spirited selling – unless August NFP is meaningfully below the expected 75k. ESUs are +5.50; NQUs are +41.00; AU is +5.50 and USZs are +12/32 at 20:02 ET. Expected Economic Data: Aug NFP 75k, Mfg. -5k, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.7% y/y, Unemployment Rate 4.3%, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.2% S&P Index 50-day MA: 6342; 100-day MA: 6053; 150-day MA: 5961; 200-day MA: 5966 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,591; 100-day MA: 43,080; 150-day MA: 42,935; 200-day MA: 43,113 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6502.08 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6195.79 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive: MACD is negative – a close below 6376.37 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6459.23 triggers a sell signal Chicago’s Mexico Independence Day Fed Postponed Amid ICE Threat – BBG VP Vance @JDVance: When I see all these senators trying to lecture and “gotcha” Bobby Kennedy today all I can think is: You all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal “therapies” for children, mutilating our kids and enriching big pharma. You’re full of s*** and everyone knows it. Sick Freaks Protest Outside Catholic School in DEFENSE of Trans Shooter (at memorial service!) They heckled Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha as they arrived at the church Wednesday to meet with victims’ families and pay respects… @bonchieredstate: Imagine protesting outside a church kids were murdered at because you want to defend the killer’s trans ideology. Sick. Just sick… @JerseyJoe74: If they intentionally wanted everyone to hate them, what would they do differently? https://modernity.news/2025/09/04/sick-freaks-protest-outside-catholic-school-in-defense-of-trans-shooter/ @libsoftiktok: Woman in Chicago KNOCKED OUT by an alleged suspect and career criminal, William Livingston, who punched her in the face, causing a concussion and multiple broken bones. Livingston has been arrested 13 TIMES for crimes, including aggravated assault and battery of both women and police officers. Tell me again how crime isn’t a problem in Chicago? https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1963663649786249495 @joeroganhq: Joe Biden spotted leaving Delaware church with a large wound on his head. https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1963752123549499703 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Illegal Alien Arrested With Arsenal Of Weapons, Ammunition, Cocaine
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025 – 08:30 PM
The optics for the Democratic Party are not great at the moment.
Whether it’s vehemently rejecting President Trump’s mission to restore law and order in crime-ridden progressive cities or opposing the deportation of criminal illegal aliens, the party of confused radicals – still unable to define what a woman is – bankrolled by rogue leftist billionaires and propped up by dark-money NGOs, has firmly branded itself as the party of “America Last.”
If Democrats had their way, no illegal alien would ever be deported. That’s because these third-worlders are seen as the party’s future voting base to seize more political power. For a glimpse into exactly who these individuals are, look no further than a shocking new report out of Charleston, South Carolina.
Local outlet WCBD reported earlier this week that deputies with the Dorchester County Sheriff’s Office pulled over Joaquin Lopez-Rubio for speeding. Deputies say Lopez-Rubio is in the country illegally, and what they found in his vehicle was shocking.
Here’s more from the local station:
Lopez-Rubio was detained for reckless driving and operating a vehicle without a valid license. It was also determined that he was a “Mexican national in the United States illegally,” according to the sheriff’s office.
During a search of Lopez-Rubio’s vehicle, deputies and troopers found three clear plastic bags with 8.6 gross grams of cocaine, ten firearms, and multiple magazines with various rounds of ammunition.
How does the illegal pick fruit on farms and clean dishes at restaurants with these tools?
Democrats are losing the plot.
Related:
Americans are waking up and fed up with the globalist regime in the previous administration that flooded the nation with millions of illegals. Now, some of these criminal illegals are heavily armed.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
