SEPT 17/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $5.60 TO $3683.00 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TO $41.85/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $16.75 TO $1376.40 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS ALSO DOWN $21.50 TO $1153.80//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//COMMODITY REPORT TONIGHT ON COFFEE//GERMANY’S BUNDESBANK WARNS OF A FISCAL COLLAPSE!/ISRAEL VS HAMAS; LAST 24 HRS COURTESY OF ISRAEL TBN//ISRAEL VSHAMAS OTHER UPDATES//ISRAEL SENDS ADVANCED DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO CYPRUS AS THEY ARE ALWAYS MINDFUL OF TURKEY//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; MARK CRISPIN MILLER/EVOL NEWS/OIL REPORT//BANK OF CANADA RESUMES ITS INTEREST RATE CUTTING//USA HOUSING STARTS PLUMMET!!//USA LOWERS ITS INTEREST RATE BY 25 BASIS POINTS//COMMENTARY ON THIS!/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 6 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 108 97 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2 9 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2 880 C CITIGROUP 3 905 C ADM 13
TOTAL: 123 123 MONTH TO DATE: 5,770
JPMORGAN STOPPED 97/123
SEPT
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 123 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 12,300 OZ or 0.3826 TONNES
total notices so far: 5770 contracts for 577,000 OR 17.947 tonnes)
FOR SEPT
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SILVER NOTICES: 602 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 13,011 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 65.055 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 979..95 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95. TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.69 AT THE SLV:
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 489.265 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE 563 CONTRACTS TO 162,954 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY LOSS OF $0,05 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE BASE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1378 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 515 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $36.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED STILL MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $36.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $42.54 . WE FINALLY STOPPED HAVING THOSE MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE BUT STILL WITNESSING SOMETIMES LARGE ISSUANCE: HOWEVER TODAY’S TOTAL ISSUANCE WAS RECORDED AT A FAIR SIZED CONTRACTS. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 38.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 681 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR FAIR SIZED 257 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S//// TRADING / AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 1078 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.05.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A FAIR SIZED 257 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.05) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1078 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,
WE HAD A 515 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 49.825 MILLION OZ COUPLED WITH TODAY’S HUGE 3.170 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL 3.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.170 MILLION OZ///
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT: 69.170 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 515 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A FAIR NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 257 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: XXXX CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAY(S), total 5850 contracts: OR 29.250 MILLION OZ (531 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.250 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 29.250 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 515 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.05 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 515 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 515 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 6 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 63.000 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 66.000 MILLION OZ. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (257) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH TODAY’S TRADING!!
WE HAD 602 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3.010 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3370 OI CONTRACTS TO 516,221 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A RELATIVELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL 317 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD AN DECREASE IN COMEX OI (3090 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $8.30 IN PRICE// TUESDAY///.
LAST 5 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.578 TONNES PLUS 0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 16.364//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 34.780 TONNES!!
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1215 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 516,221 / GETTING HIGHER AND WE NOW WITNESS A FAIR COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 162,954 CONTRACTS
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2175 CONTRACTS WITH 3390 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1215 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2175 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 915 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE THIS MORNING. GOLD PRICE ON TUESDAY ROSE BY $8.30
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(1215) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3390 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1858 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR SEPT AT 8.093 TONNES PLUS 0.578 TONNES QUEUE JUMP PLUS 0.00 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH 16.364 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO = 34.780 TONNES.@!!!
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, SEPT CONTRACT AT 34.780 TONNES OF GOLD
.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS DESPITE HAVING 1)A $8.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN. WE HAD 2) SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1858 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED TUESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY (TODAY = 0.578 TONNES)
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (1215 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 915 T.A.S.CONTRACTS/
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 21,173 CONTRACTS OR 2,117,300 OZ OR 65.856 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1925 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 65.856 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 65.856 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.85% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 65.856 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG 563 CONTRACTS OI TO 162,954 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 515 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 515 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 515 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 681 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 515 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1078 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.05 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.390 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.48 PTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 469.88 PTS OR 1.78%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 111.89 OR 0.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .62%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1063 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1026/ Oil UP TO 64.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1149 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1110 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3,390 CONTRACTS TO 516,221 OI DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING.. WE LOST SOME NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1215). WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2175 CONTRACTS (OR 5.779 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
AND NOW:
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: FOUR ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 5,261 CONTRACTS OR 526,100 OZ OR 16.364 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: FOUR ISSUANCES FOR 5261 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 526,100 OZ OR 16.364 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON SEPTEMBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2175 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 915 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE AND THIS ENDS IN FAILURE. FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!!
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH PREVIOUS AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.578 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 16.364 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.780 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 240 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
AND NOW SEPTEMBER:
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.578 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 0.000 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY// NEW TOTALS OF 16.364 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/:
THAT IS;
A) 0.00 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY // =//TOTAL FOR MONTH EX FOPR RISK: 16.364 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) 0.578 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP
TOTALS: 34.780 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 915 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 915 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 915 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
SOME LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 2915 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
2) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 4 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 16.364 TONNES.
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW SEPT:
SEPT: 18.416 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) +0 EX FOR RISK TODAY//
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 16.364//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 34.780 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $8.30./ /) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT LOSS IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE GOVERNMENT TRADING ///. THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS) WHICH OF COURSE NORMALLY ENDS IN TOTAL FAILURE LIKE IT DID WITH LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKS’S TRADING!! THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THE CROOKS COULD NOT MUSTER A RAID ON OPTIONS EXPIRY LONDON/OTC AUGUST TRADING. THEIR RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR PRICE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS TOTAL OF 6.765 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 0.578 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 0 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY/// TOTAL FOR MONTH TOTALS EX FOR RISK// MONTH = 16.364//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 34.780 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $45.30
WE HAD A SMALL 317 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2175 CONTRACTS OR 185,800 0Z (6.765 TONNES)
i) Into Asahi 64,253.707 oz ii) Into Stonex: 401.975 oz
total deposit 64,655.682 oz
2.01 tonnes of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
123 notice(s) 12,300 OZ 0.3826 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
151 contracts 15,100 OZ 0.4696 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5770 notices 577,000 oz 17.947 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 2
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi 64,253.707 oz ii) Into Stonex: 401.975 oz
total deposit 64,655.682 oz
2.01 tonnes of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0.entries
ADJUSTMENTs 0
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 274 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 79 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 107 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 186 CONTRACTS OR 18,600 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5785 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD TO OUR INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.578 TONNES AND THEN ADD MONTH SEPT// EX FOR RISK = 16.364//THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.780 TONNES
OCTOBER LOST 609 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,554
NOVEMBER GAINED 167 CONTRACTS UP TO 3265 CONTRACTS.
We had 123 contracts filed for today representing 12,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 108 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 123 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 97 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5770 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 274 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (123 x 100 oz per contract) equals 592,100 OZ OR 18.416 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK/SEPT MONTH OF 16.369 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.780 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (5770 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (274 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (123 x 100 oz) which equals 592,100 OZ OR 18.416 TONNES PLUS 16.364 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 34.780 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 34.780 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,024,054.573 oz 62.956 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,231,488.422 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,399,458.758 or 665.613 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,832,029.664 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,375,404oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 602.65 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 17 2025
INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1 entry
1entries
1) Out of Loomis 1,200,007.140 oz
total withdrawal 1200,907.104 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
4 entries
4 DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
i) Into Asahi 582,522.300 oz ii) CNT 462,871.100 oz iii) HSBC 246,829.330 oz iv) Out of Loomis; 603,362.000 oz
total deposit 1,895,584.730 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
602 CONTRACT(S) (3.010 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
223 contracts (1.115 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
13,011 Contracts (65.055 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 194.327 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 525.327 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 825 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 592 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 42 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 634 CONTRACTS OR 3.170 OZ ENTERTAINED A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX INCREASES TO 66.170 MILLION OZ. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.170 MILLION OZ
STANDING FOR SILVER: 69.170 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER GAINED 592 CONTRACTS TO 825
NOVEMBER GAINED 172 CONTRACTS UP TO 2560.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 602 or 3.01 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 70,598 fair//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,011 X5,000 oz = 65.055 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (825) AND the number of notices served upon today (602 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (13,011) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(825) minus number of notices served upon today (602)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 66.170 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT TOTALLING 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.170 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 69.170 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 194.327 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/525.327 million. 40.00%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.10 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.79 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.15 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 955.94 TONNES
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD UP $8.45 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.80 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $24.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.08 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $51.40 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 954.51 TONNES/
JULY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.23 TONNES/
GLD INVENTORY: 979/95 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.179 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.02/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.727 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.691 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $1.51/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.119 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.964 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.50/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.083 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.19/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.264 MILLION OZ.//
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 0.454 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487/398 MILLION OZ.//
The death of the fiat dollar is coming driven by a debt-cum-credit bubble which will implode. A total collapse in the dollar’s purchasing power seems politically unavoidable.
In this article, I look at the worst likely outcome for the dollar. It is not a forecast, but the confluence of recent geopolitical and economic events is making the destruction of the dollar on the lines of the reichsmark 102 years ago increasingly probable.
Obviously, our hope is that the US Government and the Fed recognise the dangers listed herein in time to prevent a complete dollar meltdown. That would require political backing for extremely unpopular actions, which is simply unimaginable today.
This article should be taken as a warning of what might be ahead for the dollar, other currencies, and for all financial values. I suggest it should be read at least twice.
Introduction
The chart above shows how much purchasing power the fiat dollar has lost since 2016 measured in real, legal money which is gold in everyone’s common law. In less than nine years, the dollar has lost 92.3% of its value. And over the course of its 54 years of existence as a pure fiat currency, it has lost over 99%. The rate of decline is now accelerating.
Associated with loss of purchasing power are the higher rates investors demand in compensation. If it turns out that inflation rises next year, and the indications are that it will, then treasury bond yields will rise. The next chart is of the long bond. In common with long bonds in other currencies, there has been a major break in a 30-year downtrend. Yields are going higher, probably very soon:
When its yield breaks above 5% convincingly (currently at 4.65%), there is little doubt that the equity bubble will implode if not before. But for the moment, equities are momentum-driven paying little attention to value, in common with the history of all credit bubbles.
Therefore, markets are remarkably wrongfooted on interest rates and bond yields, ignoring factors which will drive both inflation and bond yields higher in 2026. Market participants are myopically obsessed with the false prospects of lower interest rates ahead: the Fed’s guidance has been misleading both for itself and markets. Furthermore, government statistics with which macroeconomists live and die have deceived the concensus into a common group-thinking trance.
CPI calculations should be ignored, because changes in the general level of prices simply cannot be measured. Therefore, they are open to interpretation, which governments exploit for their own benefit. Instead, the only valid measure of a fiat currency’s debasement is its changing relationship with gold, which is everyone’s legal money and final settlement.
The symptoms of currency debasement are commonly recognised in price inflation. There are two routes to an increase in the general level of prices, and they both originate from a fall in the value of a fiat currency. In times of relative stability, an expansion of credit dilutes its purchasing power, which for most of the life of the fiat dollar has been evident. But in times of high uncertainty, loss of faith in a currency can have a far more dramatic effect.
For fiat currencies, undoubtedly these are times of high uncertainty. In extremis, loss of faith can rapidly render a currency worthless. Most of the time, a fiat currency loses value without its users being aware of it, attributing “inflation” to rising prices and not a loss of the currency’s purchasing power.
When a currency’s users finally realise that the currency is going down and not prices rising, they dump it and associated credit to buy anything — just to get rid of it. Austrian economists called it the crack-up boom, the flight into real goods — katastrophenhausse in German. But a currency might not get to quite that state if a government acts in time.
Why are we considering this frightening situation? The reason simply is that there’s every sign that the 54-year fiat currency era is coming to a close. In which case, unless the fiat dollar’s value is secured by tying it to gold it will come to a sticky end — hence the relevance of the introductory chart to this article.
Either the end of a fiat currency occurs because the government concerned stops it declining by tying its value to gold, or it ends up being worthless. The time taken from now for either event is indeterminate, but the signs are that there may be relatively little time left.
Factors driving the dollar’s collapse
Recently, we drew a comparison between the three phases of Germany’s reichsmark collapse after the First World War and with the contemporary post-covid dollar. While timing differs, the pattern so far is remarkably similar. Between 1918—1920, there was an initial phase of a fall in the reichsmark’s purchasing power, followed by a short-lived boom in credit-driven values between 1920—1922. It was followed by a third phase, when the credit bubble imploded followed by an accelerating collapse in the currency’s exchange value. The reichsmark collapsed entirely ending with a six-month crack-up boom between May and November 1923. The reichsmark was finally fixed at one trillion to one rentenmarks, the replacement currency theoretically having the same value as the pre-war gold mark.
Fast-forward to today. Recently, the 2020—2022 post-covid first phase led to an unexpected surge in inflation and bond yields, similar to the 1918—1920 period in Germany. Between 2022 and today, we have witnessed the second phase of rising stockmarkets, declining inflation, and widespread wealth creation, similar to Germany’s 1920—1922 boom.
Will the dollar now replicate the reichsmark’s third phase from January 1922 to November 1923, when it collapsed into worthlessness? It is a possibility already being telegraphed by a sharply rising gold price. Other commodity values are beginning to rise as well.
There are four identifiable dynamics working together to bring about the third phase and destroy the fiat dollar.
1. The ending of US geopolitical and economic dominance of the global economy. In partnership with Russia, China now dominates global trade having secured for herself and her markets Asia and Africa in particular, representing over 70% of the world’s population. And on a purchasing power parity basis her own economy is already 30% larger than that of the US.
2. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS together are becoming a non-dollar area. In recent months, China has been laying the groundwork for a gold-backed yuan to replace the dollar as the trade settlement medium for member governments of these organisations. The dollar-based global fiat currency system will face rejection when a Chinese version of a new Bretton Woods agreement emerges. This is already beginning, allowing governments to exchange yuan for gold and vice-versa in vaults outside China.
3. Rising bond yields will burst the credit bubble currently driving equity markets. Not only are financial markets being inflated by the largest credit bubble in history, but like the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 the addition of President Trump’s tariff policies replicates the conditions of late-1929. It was followed by the most destructive bear market in Wall Street history. Being larger, this bubble is likely to eclipse the Wall Street crash.
4. The US private sector economy, already in recession, faces a severe economic downturn accompanied by rising inflation and higher bond yields as the dollar’s purchasing power continues to decline. It is sliding into a debt trap at the same time as a massive surplus of dollars will be dumped by foreigners switching to yuan for trade settlement and capital flows. Foreigners hold $40 trillion dollars and their underlying financial assets, whose value will be falling as the dollar credit bubble implodes. And according to the Bank for International Settlements there are a further $80 trillion tied up in currency settlements outside the US. Additionally, there is also the Eurodollar market worth a further $10 trillion. The dollar total of $130 trillion in foreign hands is over 4 times the size of the US economy. The potential scale of dollar credit to be liquidated is set to crush the dollar.
Taken together, these separate factors could lead to a rapid unwinding of a 54-year accumulation of dollar credit in a general financial crash. There will be a destruction of wealth extending to all currencies however loosely they are tied to the dollar.
Summary and conclusion
The rising price of gold suggests that Stage 3 of a repeat reichsmark episode is about to start. The chart of the dollar’s trade weighted index looks terrible as well, pointing to a crisis commencing shortly:
The weakness in the TWI confirms that the principal problem is the dollar, and it will be leading other currencies into crises of their own. Rising US dollar bond yields are bound to destabilise debt traps in all fiat currencies. And unless Japan, the EU, and the UK can take action swiftly enough to protect their currencies, they will suffer the same fate. It heralds the end of the entire fiat currency system.
There can only be one conclusion: holding assets in fiat credit is a bad idea: get out of credit as much as you can and into real legal money, which in accordance with everyone’s common law is gold.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
Foreign investors in U.S. assets rush for protection against swings in dollar
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-09-17 08:22 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ian Smith and Emily Herbert Financial Times, London Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Foreign investors in U.S. assets are rushing to hedge their exposure to the dollar, in a sign of increased nervousness about the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on the world’s dominant currency.
Hedged investments into US bonds and equities are outstripping unhedged holdings for the first time in four years, according to Deutsche Bank analysis, after a sharp move since Trump’s election last November.
“Foreigners may have returned to buying U.S. assets, but they don’t want the dollar exposure that goes with it,” said Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos, adding those investors were “removing dollar exposure at an unprecedented pace.”
The behaviour helps explain an apparent paradox in U.S. markets since the sharp sell-off triggered by Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcements in April: how Wall Street stocks have staged a roaring comeback without triggering a recovery in the dollar. …
Inside the century-old building standing above 400,000 gold bars
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-09-16 10:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
But exactly what’s happening with those gold bars? The BBC didn’t ask
* * *
By Tim Stokes British Broadcasting Corp., London Tuesday, September 16, 2025
The echoing boom of a slammed door rattles around the walls of the Bank of England’s grand columned entrance.
Across the floor and walls sprawl grand mosaics and sculptures depicting lions, piles of gold, thunderbolts, and ancient Roman gods.
“When this building was created, it was designed as a working bank building. There were people coming and going all day,” explains the Bank of England Museum’s curator, Jenni Adam.
“And immediately they were greeted with this sense of grandeur along with lots and lots of messages about what’s happening in this site.”
One hundred years ago work began to rebuild the Bank of England — a place which had started as a townhouse in the 1700s and expanded over subsequent centuries.
To mark this centenary a new exhibition has begun in the bank’s museum revealing more about what can be found inside one of Britain’s most secure buildings.
Ahead of its opening the BBC was given a rare look inside the bank itself, where some of the country’s key financial decisions are made and which houses some 400,000 bars of gold in its basement vaults. …
Hong Kong to explore boosting tokenised gold trading in city
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-09-16 10:17 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Cannix Yau South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Authorities are looking into boosting tokenised gold trading in Hong Kong as a step forward to becoming the world’s first such settlement centre and shielding the city against U.S.-dollar dominance amid rising geopolitics, the Post has learned.
Sources said Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu was expected to enhance efforts to build up Hong Kong into an international gold trading centre in his policy address on Wednesday, his second-last blueprint for his incumbent term.
“His policy advisers have proposed to Lee to set out a policy to facilitate tokenised gold trading in Hong Kong so as to turn the city into the first such digital settlement centre in the world. Lee is positive about it,” an insider said.
“The move will boost gold trading in Asia and bypass the Western-dominated international payment settlement system amid the rising geopolitics, while we will still maintain a high standard of transaction monitoring and anti-money laundering measures.” …
He said the enhancement of tokenised gold trading would further consolidate Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre as it would lower the investment barrier and further boost liquidity.
He highlighted the current inadequacies of gold trading in Hong Kong, noting that digital gold available from one commercial bank did not permit the redemption of the physical precious metal. …
Clint Siegner: The cost of living is falling fast — relative to gold, that is
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-09-15 17:23 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Clint Siegner Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho Monday, September 15, 2025
Americans are feeling the pinch when it comes to price inflation. Rising prices are a political football with politicians on both sides of the aisle eager to pin blame on the other party.
Both sides are correct. Politicians, along with the central bank they created and continue to endorse, are fully responsible for the affordability crisis and the fading American dream.
Few young people can afford to buy a home. Simply paying rent and buying groceries is out of reach for some. Politicians may try to leverage this growing frustration, but their solutions have not helped.
Most Americans don’t understand the root of the problem. Prices are not going higher. Instead, the U.S. dollar (like other fiat currencies) is going down the drain.
If more people understood the yardstick that we use for prices — the dollar — was being debased, it would change the way they invest and save.
The best way to illustrate what is happening with prices is to use a different yardstick. Take a look at what has happened to prices measured against gold.
Arabica Coffee Prices Soar As Analyst Warns of “Weather Disasters” Risk Denting Global Production
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Arabica coffee futures have soared over the past six weeks, reaching their highest level since February as traders closely monitor tightening supplies, adverse weather conditions in Brazil and other top growers, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming harvests, which has fueled a short squeeze.
Arabica, the premium bean used by Starbucks, Dunkin’, and other chains, jumped as much as 6.2% to $4.21 on Monday, with momentum easing on Tuesday as $4.20 emerged as a line of resistance. Notably, futures have surged nearly 50% since early August.
In a mid-August report, we cited Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, who warned that adverse weather across key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas, had experienced “frost damage” severe enough to be a potential “death blow” to the 2026 harvest.
Wallengren recently warned that “multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world’s Arabica and Robusta producing countries” are producing an extreme situation where “there is ZERO POSSIBILTY for global production to recover until 2030 and it’s a FACT that The World IS Running Out of Coffee !!“
According to Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, the weather in Brazil is dry but not abnormally so. She told Bloomberg that the market is “on anxiety” because of separate weather concerns that may impact bean sizes.
While the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report forecasts global coffee output at around 178.7 million bags in 2025–26, weather risks remain on analysts’ minds. Ganes noted that the rally in coffee futures is being driven more by financial positioning and tariffs than by fundamentals.
“We should be seeing prices coming down unless there is some major issue with the flowering for the Brazilian 26-27 crop, and that story isn’t written yet. Even with the couple of cold snaps, you could still wind up with a decent crop,” Ganes said, adding, “To me, this is all financial, and it’s being tripped up by the tariffs.”
END
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.48 PTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 469.88 PTS OR 1.78%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 111.89 OR 0.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .62%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1063 OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1026/ Oil UP TO 64.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 67.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1149 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1110 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1063
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1026
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 469.88 PTS OR 1.78%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 111.89 PTS OR 0.25%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.40 EURO FALLS TO 1.1843 UP 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.592//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.49…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.208 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6757 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.499 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.234
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.352
3j Gold at $3664.80 Silver at: 41.60 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 44 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.75
3m oil (WTI) into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.49/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.592% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.208 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7871 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9322 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.008 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.631 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.519 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.30
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6140 DOWN 2 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.425 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.158 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.713 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat Ahead Of Royal FOMC Rumble
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 08:31 AM
US equity futures are flat into today’s Fed decision, with the long end of the yield curve moving lower. As of 8:10am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, with Nvidia lower in premarket trading after the FT reported that China has ordered some companies to terminate orders for a certain type of AI chip (AMD -1%, AVGO flat). Other Mag7 names are flat. Cyclicals are under pressure. In other assets ahead of the Fed, the dollar is near its lowest level in three years although it is catching a bid after losing nearly 1% the last two days, while gold held near a record high. The commodity complex is weaker with notable losses in silver and coffee, each down more than 2.2%. In addition to the Fed today, we also have Housing starts and building permits ahead of tomorrow’s jobless data.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed with Nvidia 1% lower in premarket trading after the FT reported that China has ordered some companies to terminate orders for a certain type of AI chip (Tesla -0.8%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta -0.3%). Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Cytokinetics (CYTK) inches 1% higher after the drug developer, which is offering $550 million in convertible notes, said it met Monday with US regulators about the company’s application for aficamten and still expects a decision by late December.
Manchester United (MANU), the Premier League’s fallen giant, falls 9% after revenues flat-lined and losses continued to mount.
New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares soar 24%, set to extend Tuesday’s record 45% rally, after billionaire Wes Edens’ firm finalized a seven-year deal worth $4 billion to supply liquefied natural gas to Puerto Rico.
Vtex (VTEX), the e-commerce software platform, rises 5% after Jefferies raised the recommendation to buy, saying the recent declines after second-quarter results have been overdone and the longer term growth prospects remain intact.
Workday (WDAY) shares are up 9% as Elliott Investment Management says the human-resources software company has made substantial progress in recent years. Analysts were also positive about the company’s outlook, while Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to neutral from underweight.
The record-breaking stock rally faces a big test today, with all eyes on what could prove to be a historic Fed rate decision (where we could get as many as 4 dissents, an unprecedented outcome) and the subsequent Powell’s press conference (full preview here). With equity positioning stretched, some strategists have been warning about a pullback. Anything but a dovish tilt could disappoint. For the FOMC rate decision, a 25bp rate cut is fully priced into swaps market. Including the 25bp cut priced in for today’s FOMC decision, around 70bp of easing is anticipated by year-end. In the lead-up to the meeting, traders have been hedging potential for at least one 50bp cut resulting from one of the year’s three remaining policy meetings — occurring today and in October and December
Fed watchers expect differing views on employment and inflation will prevent officials from promising an aggressive pace of cuts. Still, bond traders are stepping up options wagers on at least one 50bp cut in this year’s three remaining policy meetings. Options markets are pricing in a move of about 0.7% in the S&P 500 after the Fed, according to Citigroup strategists.
“There’s the potential for big divergence between officials,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “There’s also the possibility of multiple dissents. The last meeting saw two governors dissent for the first time since 1993, whilst Trump-appointee Stephen Miran has also joined the board now.”
The decision comes as stocks look stretched according to Bloomberg. Equity positioning for CTAs is currently in the 95th percentile of a 30-year range, and their next course of action is to take profit, according to UBS strategists. Citadel strategist Scott Rubner said US stocks could experience turbulence in coming weeks before finishing the year with a flourish.
“We expect some short-term correction in risk assets,” she said. “Vulnerability is very high and the US is especially very highly concentrated. But we’re still confident in fundamentals, and we still think it would be more of a healthy correction.”
Trump will be watching the Fed’s decision from the UK, where PM Keir Starmer is seeking to strengthen ties with the US. Tech firms including Microsoft and OpenAI announced plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on technology infrastructure in the UK, while British drugmaker GSK pledged to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years.
In other trade news, Trump said he spoke to Indian PM Modi in a move that offers to ease tensions between the two major economies amid a fight over tariffs and New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. And China released a Wells Fargo banker it earlier blocked from leaving the country, according to a person familiar with the matter, ahead of a potential in-person meeting between Trump and China’Xi Jinping.
In corporate news, Apple’s smartphone sales in China in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 17 launch fell 6%, a deeper slump than is typical ahead of a new release. Klarna’s CEO is overhauling how he controls his roughly $1.1 billion stake in the financial technology firm, just days after its US listing. Private equity giants Blackstone and BlackRock are said to be vying to invest billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia’s new AI company, Humain.
Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5%, after weak jobs data and a second-quarter contraction.
European stocks edge higher, led by tech. Germany’s DAX outperforms after a gain in SAP. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
Centrica shares gain as much as 3.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight as the analysts say the shares aren’t fully valuing even its existing business.
DiaSorin shares rise as much as 2.7%, among the best performers in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Wednesday morning, after the stock was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
Sanofi shares climb as much as 1.5% after the French drugmaker said a Phase 2a study of its experimental drug brivekimig in patients with hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) led to clinically meaningful improvements in primary and key secondary endpoints.
PZ Cussons shares rise as much as 10%, the most since February as they rebound from the lowest level since 2001, after it delivered results mildly ahead of estimates.
McBride climbs as much as 17%, the most in eight months, following full-year results from the personal care products maker, which Peel Hunt says demonstrate “consistent delivery.”
PostNL shares jump as much as 10% after the delivery company outlined 2028 financial goals above current expectations ahead of its capital markets day.
ProSiebenSat.1 Media shares fall as much as 7.5% in Frankfurt trading after analysts at Oddo BHF downgrade to neutral, reduce price target to €7.5 from €9.
GTT drops as much as 4.2% as Oddo BHF flags a slight slowdown of order momentum for the French engineering company.
Hexagon Composites shares fall as much as 16% after offering 42 million shares at NOK14, representing a 13.6% discount vs. Tuesday’s close.
Diversified Energy shares drop as much as 6.4% in London, after the firm said overnight that an investor is offering shares in the company at a discounted price.
Norbit falls as much as 6.3% after shareholder Draupnir Invest offers 3.25 million shares in the company at NOK200 per share, representing a 6.5% discount vs. Tuesday’s close.
Nestle shares fall as much as 0.7% in early trading and continue to trade near a nine-year low after the early departure of Nestle Chairman Paul Bulcke.
In the UK, Bank of England policymakers got yet another unwelcome signal of sticky price pressures ahead of their rates decision on Thursday. Inflation held at its highest in more than 1 1/2 years in August, reinforcing expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates on hold at 4%.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities swung in a narrow range after hitting an all-time high, as gains in Hong Kong and mainland China offset losses in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan. All eyes remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision due later. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, with Chinese Internet titans Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest boosts while chipmakers TSMC and Samsung Electronics dragged on the gauge. The regional benchmark notched its first record close in more than four years on Tuesday. China’s gains are “mostly driven by the tech companies due to rapid AI development and growing evidence of monetization,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee “Against a backdrop of supportive government policies, cheap valuations and a cyclical bull case for emerging markets driven by US rate cuts and weaker dollar.” A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong surged 2.2% to the highest since July 2021. Heavyweights including Alibaba and Baidu climbed on positive analyst reports.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed, sterling steady after UK inflation matched expectations. Euro-area headline CPI for August was revised lower.
In rates, treasuries hold small gains led by long-end tenors ahead of Fed rate decision at 2pm New York time, flattening the curve with 30-year yields lower by around 2.5bp on the day. US market tracks bull-flattening in European bonds, led by Germany’s, following long-end auctions and UK CPI data. With US front-end yields little changed, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are about 2bp flatter on the day; 10-year near 4.01% is down about 1.5bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by about 0.5bp. Treasury auctions resume Thursday with $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening; Tuesday’s 20-year bond sale drew good demand. European bond markets grind higher in line with Treasuries.
In commodities, gold slides from another record high, down by around $19 to $3,670/oz. Oil prices drops too, Brent trades closer to $68/barrel.
Today’s US economic data slate includes August housing starts/building permits at 8:30am; FOMC announcement is at 2pm.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini little changed
Nasdaq 100 mini unchanged
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
DAX +0.3%
CAC 40 little changed
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.01%
VIX +0.2 points at 16.55
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1189.27
euro -0.2% at $1.1844
WTI crude -0.7% at $64.08/barrel
Top Overnight News
China told its tech firms to stop buying Nvidia’s AI chips and terminate all existing orders, the FT reported. The chipmaker’s shares fell premarket (NVDA -1.5%). BBG
Fired BLS head Erika McEntarfer said her dismissal represented a “dangerous step” for the economy, and could erode confidence in economic statistics. WSJ
Washington will begin the process of renegotiating the USMCA on Wed (Canada’s Carney travels to Mexico on Thurs, and USMCA will likely be a major topic of discussion in those meetings). FT
Japan’s exports fell for a fourth month, with shipments to the US posting the steepest drop in more than four years. BBG
Microsoft, OpenAI and other US companies announced plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on technology infrastructure in Britain. BBG
US Democrats are expected to unveil their CR counteroffer today, Punchbowl citing sources reports that this will include a permanent extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits
UK inflation stuck at an 18-month high of 3.8% in August, a reading that may encourage BOE policymakers to lay the groundwork for a longer pause on rates at tomorrow’s policy decision. BBG
Foreign investors in US assets are rushing to hedge their exposure to the dollar, in a sign of increased nervousness about the impact of Trump’s agenda on the world’s dominant currency. FT
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its key rate 25 bps to 2.5%, restarting monetary easing after holding borrowing costs steady for three consecutive meetings. BBG
Corporate News
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. said it will not proceed with a proposed $19 billion offer for Australian natural gas producer Santos Ltd.
China’s internet watchdog has instructed companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. to terminate orders for Nvidia Corp.’s RTX Pro 6000D, the Financial Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Eli Lilly & Co.’s obesity pill prompted enough weight loss in a large clinical trial to be meaningful for patients and have far-reaching implications for the field, doctors said.
Apple Inc.’s smartphone sales in China in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 17 launch fell 6% from the year-earlier period, a deeper slump than is typical ahead of a new flagship product release.
Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund will take a $500 million stake in copper producer Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., deepening its push into the global mining industry.
Alarm firm Verisure Plc announced it’s planning to raise about €3.1 billion ($3.7 billion) via an initial public offering in Stockholm.
Microsoft Corp., OpenAI and other American companies announced plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on technology infrastructure in the UK, part of a series of business deals that coincide with Trump’s visit to the nation this week.
TikTok’s US operations would be acquired by a consortium that includes Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC under a deal Trump is set to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week.
Nestlé SA Chairman Paul Bulcke will step down early after investors questioned his handling of the ouster of the food company’s former chief executive officer due to an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate.
Trade/Tariffs
Chinese state media noted regarding US-China trade talks in Madrid that China will review and approve matters related to TikTok, technology export and intellectual property in accordance with the law, while it added that an agreement on TikTok is in the interests of both sides.
China and the US are in the “final stage” of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, with bulk purchases of American goods a critical part of the deliverables, according to sources cited by South China Morning Post.
USTR Greer and South African Trade Minister Tau are expected to meet on Thursday, via Bloomberg citing sources.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with global risk sentiment cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision where the Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut for this year. ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in the Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Miners and Materials sectors front-running the declines, while there was some resilience seen in Utilities, Energy and Tech. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and briefly returned to the 45,000 level with price action choppy following initial currency headwinds and mixed Japanese trade data in which Exports fell for a 4th consecutive month, albeit at a much slower-than-feared pace, while Imports printed a wider-than-anticipated contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by tech strength as Baidu (9888 HK) rallied after an analyst upgrade due to optimism regarding its in-house chip venture and with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made advanced chip-making machinery. Furthermore, Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee made several pledges in his policy address, while China also recently issued measures on increasing consumption.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee reaffirmed economic growth of 2%-3% for this year in the annual policy address, while he said they will accelerate development of the northern metropolis area close to the mainland China border, will continue to increase public housing supply, and create land for large development projects. Lee also stated that Hong Kong is to set up a working group to boost AI development and is to set up a task force to help mainland Chinese companies go overseas. Furthermore, Lee said the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is to encourage banks to establish regional headquarters in Hong Kong, and the HKEX is to lure more Southeast Asia companies for secondary listing.
China trials its first advanced tools for AI chipmaking with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made machinery as Beijing seeks to rival US-made processors, according to FT.
Wells Fargo (WFC) banker who had been barred from leaving China for several months, has been allowed to return to the US, according to the Washington Post.
China August crude iron ore output +8.8% Y/Y at 81.63mln metric tons, according to stats bureau Alumina +7.5% Y/Y. Refined Copper +14.8% Y/Y. Lead +3.7% Y/Y. Zinc +22.8% Y/Y.
Indonesian Central Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps to 4.75% (exp. 5.00%, prev. 5.00%)
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mixed and price action has been rangebound throughout the morning, as traders await the FOMC later today. European sectors are mixed, and aside from top performer, the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Tech tops the sectoral list today, following on from outperformance seen in Chinese tech-names such as Baidu; as a reminder, the Co. received an analyst upgrade related to its in-house chip venture and with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made advanced chip-making machinery.
Top European News
ECB’s de Guindos says current rate is “appropriate”, via Welt; No reason for ECB to intervene with TPI (Transmission Protection Instrument).
French socialist leader says there is currently no indication of French PM Lecornu’s plan, according to Bloomberg
FX
After a session of losses yesterday, DXY is a touch firmer in the run-up to today’s FOMC policy announcement. In brief, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps, with focus on guidance, vote split and updated SEP/dot plots. Thereafter, attention will shift to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, whereby markets will be attentive to how forthcoming he is over additional near-term easing. Note, as an extra curve ball for the market, President Trump is due to be interviewed on Fox at 20:00BST. DXY sits towards the lower end of Tuesday’s 96.55-97.38 range.
EUR is a touch softer vs. the USD after hitting a multi-year high yesterday @ 1.1878. Incremental EUR drivers are lacking with final Y/Y HICP revised a touch lower to 2.0% from 2.1% and the latest ECB wage tracker (2025 wage growth seen at 3.158% vs. prev. forecast 3.152%) passing with little in the way of fanfare. On the former, the ECB observed that early signs suggest lower and more stable wage pressures in H1 2026. Note, ECB’s Nagel is due to speak at 18:00BST. If EUR/USD continues its ascent higher, ING suggests that 1.1910 “looks like the final resistance level before 1.20 is hit”.
The Yen is fractionally firmer vs. the USD, extending its winning streak to a third session. Overnight, Japanese trade data saw a smaller-than-expected deficit thanks to a smaller-than-forecast contraction in exports. Following the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics stated it expects the 15% universal duty on Japanese goods, imposed by the US to “weigh on Japanese exports for the rest of the year”. USD/JPY hit a fresh low for the month overnight @ 146.22 before picking up to levels north of 146.50.
GBP was largely unreactive to the latest UK inflation data, which saw August Y/Y headline CPI hold steady at 3.8%, as expected. Core declined to 3.6% from 3.8% (in-line with consensus) and services declined to 4.7% from 5.0% (exp. 4.8%). This could have implications for the UK’s fiscal picture, which remains perilous with the latest reporting suggesting the OBR told UK Chancellor Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy. Cable is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.3598-1.3672. This could have implications for the UK’s fiscal picture, which remains perilous with the latest reporting suggesting the OBR told UK Chancellor Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy. Cable is currently contained within Tuesday’s 1.3598-1.3672.
Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard with fresh macro drivers from Australia and New Zealand lacking.
CAD is a touch weaker vs. the USD ahead of the BoC rate decision, which is expected to see the Bank cut rates by 25bps, according to 25/32 surveyed by Reuters. Markets assign a 92% chance of such an outcome and an 8% chance of a larger 50bps reduction. A 25bps outturn would see rates slip below the current midpoint of the BoC’s neutral estimate.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1013 vs exp. 7.1021 (Prev. 7.1027).
Fixed Income
USTs in a holding pattern into the FOMC. Unchanged in a very thin band for the first part of the European morning. In terms of the Fed, a 25bps cut is the base case though markets continue to imply a slim chance of a larger 50bps move. Attention thereafter will be on forward guidance, to see if the FOMC implies further easing or retains a data-dependent stance; the vote split and dots of interest on this point. Note, during Chair Powell’s press conference President Trump will be speaking to the media as part of his UK state visit. More recently, a bout of strength was spurred by the FT reporting that China has ordered its large tech firms to stop ordering the China-specific NVIDIA chip. An update that has weighed on the broader risk tone and spurred USTs to a 113-21 peak with gains of 4 ticks at best.
Gilts gapped higher at the open following the UK CPI. opened with gains of 13 ticks before extending another 10 to an initial 91.62 peak (91.70 notched post-NVDA). Upside that was driven by the August inflation report. In brief, the majority of the release was as expected though, the services components came in cooler-than-expected and have spurred the morning’s modest dovish move. The release does not change the narrative of unchanged this week from the BoE or the view that inflation will likely tick higher in the months ahead. Countering the bullish impetus, and possibly factoring into the pullback towards and below opening levels seen as the morning progressed (before the NVDA update, at least), was renewed focus on the Autumn Budget. Overnight, multiple press reports suggest the OBR will be downgrading their assessment of UK productivity, a cut which will amplify the already difficult fiscal situation Chancellor Reeves finds herself in.
Bunds were initially in-fitting with USTs with specifics light. Thereafter, some modest upside was seen after UK CPI, but this proved fleeting. As the morning progressed, the benchmark began to pull back a little more and notched a 128.71 low. However, this was superseded by the risk move seen on the FT-NVDA report, propelling Bunds to a 128.98 peak with gains of 27 ticks at best. No move seen to the final EZ HICP, revised down to 2% (prelim. 2.1%) for the headline Y/Y while the core and super-core figures were unrevised. A dual-tranche German auction spurred little reaction in Bunds.
Germany sells EUR 0.786bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 1.25% 2048 and EUR 1.13bln vs. exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 Bund.
Commodities
Crude opened modestly on the backfoot and has trickled lower throughout the morning. Downside in the crude complex was exacerbated by reports that China’s CAC has reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA) and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) RTX Pro 6000D, via FT citing sources; in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry. WTI currently resides in a 62.91-63.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.01-67.68/bbl range.
Precious metals decline with headwinds seen from a firmer dollar alongside selling pressure in metals, including a 1% drop in silver, shortly after Shanghai commodities trade got underway, and with demand subdued ahead of today’s Fed rate decision. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,662.63-3,695.52/oz range with Tuesday’s high (USD 3,703.24/oz) the latest all-time high.
Base metals are lower across the board amid the broader risk aversion and firmer USD sparked by reports that China’s CAC has reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA) and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) RTX Pro 6000D, via FT citing sources. 3M LME copper fell back under USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 9,931.05-10,136.70/t range at the time of writing.
Deutsche Bank lifts gold price forecasts next year to USD 4,000/oz average (prev. USD 3,700/oz); Silver lifted to USD 45/oz (prev. USD 40/oz)
Geopolitics: Middle East
Japan will not recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly, according to Asahi.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation Quotes Palestinian Sources Familiar with the Negotiations: We Are Ready to Discuss Stopping the War. But in a Different Way Than In the Past”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says Araqchi will hold a call with German, British and French counterparts this Wednesday.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant reported hearing shelling close to the site on Tuesday and saw black smoke rising from three locations nearby after multiple artillery shells struck an area outside of the nuclear power plant site perimeter, although there were no reports of casualties or equipment damage.
EU intends to propose additional sanctions on more Chinese firms linked to the Russian war effort, via Politico; diplomat adds that discussions on the 19th sanctions package are now expected on Friday and potentially includes the addition of Chinese firms.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says Russia is in contact with the US on various issues, and dialogue continues, via Ria; adds that Russia is ready to deepen energy cooperation discussions with the US, including on Sakhalin 1 project.
US Event Calendar
7:00 am: Sep 12 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 9.2%
8:30 am: Aug Housing Starts, est. 1365k, prior 1428k
8:30 am: Aug P Building Permits, est. 1370k, prior 1362k
8:30 am: Aug Housing Starts MoM, est. -4.41%, prior 5.2%
2:00 pm: Sep 17 FOMC Rate Decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After a relentless rally over recent sessions, risk assets struggled to keep up their momentum over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.13%) slipping back from its record high. The moves come ahead of today’s Fed decision, which could well be one of the most interesting in recent times. Of course, it’s widely expected that we’ll get the first rate cut since December. But all eyes will also be on the quarterly dot plot for where officials think rates will move next, as there’s the potential for a big divergence between different officials. And on top of that, there’s also the possibility of multiple dissents, particularly after the last meeting saw 2 Governors dissent from for the first time since 1993, whilst Trump appointee Stephen Miran has also joined the Board now. So, lots of themes to keep an eye on.
In terms of the decision, it’s widely expected that we’ll see a 25bp rate cut today, which would lower the target range for the fed funds rate down to 4%-4.25%. Interestingly, at the time of the last FOMC decision in July, a cut at today’s meeting wasn’t seen as a foregone conclusion at all, particularly with tariffs keeping inflation above target. But two days later, on August 1, we had a very underwhelming jobs report, which included the biggest downward revisions in years. So that undercut the previous message of labour market resilience after Liberation Day and led to a lot more concern about the “maximum employment” side of the Fed’s mandate. In turn, that meant Fed officials increasingly signalled that a cut was possible, and Chair Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech that the “downside risks to employment are rising.”
In the time since that jobs report in early August, markets have priced in a September cut as the most likely outcome, and that message was reinforced by the most recent jobs report a couple of weeks ago. Indeed, it showed payrolls up by just +22k in August, and the June print was even revised into contractionary territory. So that cemented investors’ conviction in a 25bp cut and led to a brief period of speculation about whether the Fed might do a larger 50bp cut, just like they did at the September 2024 meeting.
Even if today’s decision ends up being a 25bp cut as expected, this meeting still has the potential for dissents in both directions. In fact, yesterday saw Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran sworn in as a Fed Governor, so he’s taking part in this FOMC meeting. And our US economists write in their preview (link here ) that they expect him to dissent in favour of a 50bp cut. There’s also the potential for dissents by Governor Bowman and Governor Waller, who both voted for a 25bp cut at the last meeting. And on the hawkish side, they write that the most likely candidate for a dissent is Kansas City Fed President Schmid.
With the Fed preparing to cut rates, US Treasuries continue to rally yesterday across the curve. So, the 2yr yield (-3.5bps) fell to 3.50%, and the 10yr yield (-1.0bps) fell to 4.03%. Moreover, the 30yr yield (-1.2bps) fell to 4.65%, which is its lowest since early April in the week after Liberation Day. That momentum has continued into this morning, with the 30yr yield down another -0.7bps to 4.64%, so that’s helping to ease investor fears around the US fiscal situation as well. And this decline was clear among real yields too, and the 10yr real yield (-1.1bps) fell to 1.65% yesterday, its lowest closing level since October 2024.
However, with Treasury yields continuing to fall, that put more downward pressure on the US Dollar, with the dollar index falling to its weakest level since February 2022. And conversely, that helped the Euro to move up to $1.1867, marking its highest closing level since September 2021. Of course, the Fed’s pivot towards rate cuts has also been a factor, particularly given the ECB has now paused its own easing cycle, as that’s narrowing the differential between the two central bank rates.
Interestingly, that Treasury rally yesterday occurred despite a strong batch of US data, which pushed back against the weaker narrative we’ve seen from the labour market data. For instance, retail sales were up +0.6% in August (vs. +0.2% expected), and industrial production rose +0.1% (vs. -0.1% expected). So that boosted optimism about the growth outlook, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualised growth rate of +3.4% in Q3. That would be almost in line with the +3.3% growth rate in Q2, suggesting the economy has kept up its momentum since the Liberation Day tariff announcements in early April.
Nevertheless, that stronger data was unable to support the equity rally, as the S&P 500 (-0.13%) slipped back from its record high on Monday. To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.55%) advancing to a new record, whilst energy stocks (+1.73%) were the biggest sectoral outperformer in the S&P after Brent crude (+1.53%) hit a two-week high of $68.47/bbl. But there was weakness more broadly, and it was the third consecutive day where decliners outnumbered advancers in the S&P 500.
Over in Europe, equities saw even deeper losses, with major indices like the STOXX 600 (-1.14%) and the DAX (-1.77%) posting sizeable declines. As in the US, that came despite some robust economic data, with the expectations component of the German ZEW survey unexpectedly rising to 37.3 in September (vs. 25.0 expected). In the meantime, 10yr yields only saw a slight increase, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) all moving a bit higher.
On the theme of central banks, we’ll also get a decision from the Bank of Canada today, who are widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut of their own. As with the Fed, anticipation about a rate cut has risen notably since the last meeting, and yesterday that got further support after inflation surprised on the downside in August. The release showed headline CPI only rising to +1.9% (vs. +2.0% expected), which helped Canadian sovereign bonds to rally across the curve, with the 10yr yield (-1.7bps) falling to a 4-month low of 3.15%.
Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have put in a mixed performance ahead of the Fed’s decision. The Hang Seng (+1.41%) is the biggest outperformer this morning, with the index currently on track for its highest close since 2021. And that’s come alongside gains for the CSI 300 (+0.60%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.41%). However, Japan’s Nikkei (+0.04%) is basically flat, whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.67%) has lost more ground, finally falling back after a run of 11 consecutive daily gains. Looking forward, US equity futures are fairly subdued, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.05%) posting a slight decline, but European futures have been stronger, with those on the DAX up +0.30%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s press conference. We’ll also get a policy decision from the Bank of Canada. And central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Muller, Escriva, Cipollone and Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include the UK CPI print for August, along with US housing starts and building permits for August.
2b) European opening report
Tentative price action across US equity futures ahead of the FOMC; China bans tech companies from buying NVIDIA AI chips – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 06:15 AM
White House said it was further extending the TikTok enforcement delay, with the deadline to sell TikTok extended until December 16th.
European bourses are mixed; NQ saw fleeting pressure on reports that China ordered tech firms to stop buying NVIDIA’s AI chips; NVIDIA -0.9% pre-market.
USD is a touch firmer as markets brace for today’s FOMC announcement
NVIDIA pressure lifts fixed income to highs pre-FOMC, Gilts outperform after the region’s inflation report which was broadly in-line but as Services cooled a touch.
Crude trades with modest losses; Dollar strength weighs on gold.
Looking ahead, New Zealand GDP (Q2), US Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Speakers including ECB’s Nagel, Fed Chair Powell, BoC’s Macklem & US President Trump. Earnings from General Mills.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
Chinese state media noted regarding US-China trade talks in Madrid that China will review and approve matters related to TikTok, technology export and intellectual property in accordance with the law, while it added that an agreement on TikTok is in the interests of both sides.
China and the US are in the “final stage” of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, with bulk purchases of American goods a critical part of the deliverables, according to sources cited by South China Morning Post.
USTR Greer and South African Trade Minister Tau are expected to meet on Thursday, via Bloomberg citing sources.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mixed and price action has been rangebound throughout the morning, as traders await the FOMC later today.
European sectors are mixed, and aside from top performer, the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Tech tops the sectoral list today, following on from outperformance seen in Chinese tech-names such as Baidu; as a reminder, the Co. received an analyst upgrade related to its in-house chip venture and with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made advanced chip-making machinery.
US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as traders await the FOMC; expectations are for a 25bps cut. The NQ saw some fleeting pressure after China’s internet regulator told the country’s biggest tech companies to stop buying NVIDIA chips; currently -1.1% in pre-market trade.
China’s CAC has reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA) and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) RTX Pro 6000D, via FT citing sources; in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry The article highlights that several firms had indicated they would order tens of thousands of the China-specific product from NVIDIA, and had commenced testing work with suppliers prior to receiving the CAC order to terminate such activity.
Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales in China -6% Y/Y in July-August period, according to Counterpoint; Chinese smartphone sales -2% Y/Y over the same period.
After a session of losses yesterday, DXY is a touch firmer in the run-up to today’s FOMC policy announcement. In brief, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps, with focus on guidance, vote split and updated SEP/dot plots. Thereafter, attention will shift to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, whereby markets will be attentive to how forthcoming he is over additional near-term easing. Note, as an extra curve ball for the market, President Trump is due to be interviewed on Fox at 20:00BST. DXY sits towards the lower end of Tuesday’s 96.55-97.38 range.
EUR is a touch softer vs. the USD after hitting a multi-year high yesterday @ 1.1878. Incremental EUR drivers are lacking with final Y/Y HICP revised a touch lower to 2.0% from 2.1% and the latest ECB wage tracker (2025 wage growth seen at 3.158% vs. prev. forecast 3.152%) passing with little in the way of fanfare. On the former, the ECB observed that early signs suggest lower and more stable wage pressures in H1 2026. Note, ECB’s Nagel is due to speak at 18:00BST. If EUR/USD continues its ascent higher, ING suggests that 1.1910 “looks like the final resistance level before 1.20 is hit”.
The Yen is fractionally firmer vs. the USD, extending its winning streak to a third session. Overnight, Japanese trade data saw a smaller-than-expected deficit thanks to a smaller-than-forecast contraction in exports. Following the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics stated it expects the 15% universal duty on Japanese goods, imposed by the US to “weigh on Japanese exports for the rest of the year”. USD/JPY hit a fresh low for the month overnight @ 146.22 before picking up to levels north of 146.50.
GBP was largely unreactive to the latest UK inflation data, which saw August Y/Y headline CPI hold steady at 3.8%, as expected. Core declined to 3.6% from 3.8% (in-line with consensus) and services declined to 4.7% from 5.0% (exp. 4.8%). This could have implications for the UK’s fiscal picture, which remains perilous with the latest reporting suggesting the OBR told UK Chancellor Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy. Cable is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.3598-1.3672. This could have implications for the UK’s fiscal picture, which remains perilous with the latest reporting suggesting the OBR told UK Chancellor Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy. Cable is currently contained within Tuesday’s 1.3598-1.3672.
Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard with fresh macro drivers from Australia and New Zealand lacking.
CAD is a touch weaker vs. the USD ahead of the BoC rate decision, which is expected to see the Bank cut rates by 25bps, according to 25/32 surveyed by Reuters. Markets assign a 92% chance of such an outcome and an 8% chance of a larger 50bps reduction. A 25bps outturn would see rates slip below the current midpoint of the BoC’s neutral estimate.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1013 vs exp. 7.1021 (Prev. 7.1027).
USTs in a holding pattern into the FOMC. Unchanged in a very thin band for the first part of the European morning. In terms of the Fed, a 25bps cut is the base case though markets continue to imply a slim chance of a larger 50bps move. Attention thereafter will be on forward guidance, to see if the FOMC implies further easing or retains a data-dependent stance; the vote split and dots of interest on this point. Note, during Chair Powell’s press conference President Trump will be speaking to the media as part of his UK state visit. More recently, a bout of strength was spurred by the FT reporting that China has ordered its large tech firms to stop ordering the China-specific NVIDIA chip. An update that has weighed on the broader risk tone and spurred USTs to a 113-21 peak with gains of 4 ticks at best.
Gilts gapped higher at the open following the UK CPI. opened with gains of 13 ticks before extending another 10 to an initial 91.62 peak (91.70 notched post-NVDA). Upside that was driven by the August inflation report. In brief, the majority of the release was as expected though, the services components came in cooler-than-expected and have spurred the morning’s modest dovish move. The release does not change the narrative of unchanged this week from the BoE or the view that inflation will likely tick higher in the months ahead. Countering the bullish impetus, and possibly factoring into the pullback towards and below opening levels seen as the morning progressed (before the NVDA update, at least), was renewed focus on the Autumn Budget. Overnight, multiple press reports suggest the OBR will be downgrading their assessment of UK productivity, a cut which will amplify the already difficult fiscal situation Chancellor Reeves finds herself in.
Bunds were initially in-fitting with USTs with specifics light. Thereafter, some modest upside was seen after UK CPI, but this proved fleeting. As the morning progressed, the benchmark began to pull back a little more and notched a 128.71 low. However, this was superseded by the risk move seen on the FT-NVDA report, propelling Bunds to a 128.98 peak with gains of 27 ticks at best. No move seen to the final EZ HICP, revised down to 2% (prelim. 2.1%) for the headline Y/Y while the core and super-core figures were unrevised. A dual-tranche German auction spurred little reaction in Bunds.
Germany sells EUR 0.786bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 1.25% 2048 and EUR 1.13bln vs. exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 Bund.
Crude opened modestly on the backfoot and has trickled lower throughout the morning. Downside in the crude complex was exacerbated by reports that China’s CAC has reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA) and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) RTX Pro 6000D, via FT citing sources; in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry. WTI currently resides in a 62.91-63.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.01-67.68/bbl range.
Precious metals decline with headwinds seen from a firmer dollar alongside selling pressure in metals, including a 1% drop in silver, shortly after Shanghai commodities trade got underway, and with demand subdued ahead of today’s Fed rate decision. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,662.63-3,695.52/oz range with Tuesday’s high (USD 3,703.24/oz) the latest all-time high.
Base metals are lower across the board amid the broader risk aversion and firmer USD sparked by reports that China’s CAC has reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA) and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) RTX Pro 6000D, via FT citing sources. 3M LME copper fell back under USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 9,931.05-10,136.70/t range at the time of writing.
Deutsche Bank lifts gold price forecasts next year to USD 4,000/oz average (prev. USD 3,700/oz); Silver lifted to USD 45/oz (prev. USD 40/oz)
ECB Wage Tracker: 2025 Annual 3.158% (prev. 3.152%); early signs suggest lower and more stable wage pressures in H1 2026.
UK CPI YY (Aug) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%); MM (Aug) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
UK Core CPI YY (Aug) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.8%); MM (Aug) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
UK CPI Services YY (Aug) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 5.0%); MM (Aug) 0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
EU HICP Final MM (Aug) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%); HICP Final YY (Aug) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
UK ONS average house prices increased by 2.8% in the 12 months to July.
South African CPI YY (Aug) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.5%); CPI MM (Aug) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s de Guindos says current rate is “appropriate”, via Welt; No reason for ECB to intervene with TPI (Transmission Protection Instrument).
French socialist leader says there is currently no indication of French PM Lecornu’s plan, according to Bloomberg
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Democrats are expected to unveil their CR counteroffer today, Punchbowl citing sources reports that this will include a permanent extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Japan will not recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly, according to Asahi.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation Quotes Palestinian Sources Familiar with the Negotiations: We Are Ready to Discuss Stopping the War. But in a Different Way Than In the Past”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says Araqchi will hold a call with German, British and French counterparts this Wednesday.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant reported hearing shelling close to the site on Tuesday and saw black smoke rising from three locations nearby after multiple artillery shells struck an area outside of the nuclear power plant site perimeter, although there were no reports of casualties or equipment damage.
EU intends to propose additional sanctions on more Chinese firms linked to the Russian war effort, via Politico; diplomat adds that discussions on the 19th sanctions package are now expected on Friday and potentially includes the addition of Chinese firms.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says Russia is in contact with the US on various issues, and dialogue continues, via Ria; adds that Russia is ready to deepen energy cooperation discussions with the US, including on Sakhalin 1 project.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin moves higher and trades just shy of the USD 117k mark, whilst Ethereum is flat.
UK is set to announce closer co-operation on cryptocurrencies and UK Chancellor Reeves hopes greater regulatory alignment will allow better access to America’s deep capital markets, according to FT.
FCA says proposals to promote good business practices among crypto firms; “The rules aim to be proportionate, allowing UK firms to compete internationally”.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed with global risk sentiment cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision where the Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut for this year.
ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in the Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Miners and Materials sectors front-running the declines, while there was some resilience seen in Utilities, Energy and Tech.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and briefly returned to the 45,000 level with price action choppy following initial currency headwinds and mixed Japanese trade data in which Exports fell for a 4th consecutive month, albeit at a much slower-than-feared pace, while Imports printed a wider-than-anticipated contraction.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by tech strength as Baidu (9888 HK) rallied after an analyst upgrade due to optimism regarding its in-house chip venture and with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made advanced chip-making machinery. Furthermore, Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee made several pledges in his policy address, while China also recently issued measures on increasing consumption.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee reaffirmed economic growth of 2%-3% for this year in the annual policy address, while he said they will accelerate development of the northern metropolis area close to the mainland China border, will continue to increase public housing supply, and create land for large development projects. Lee also stated that Hong Kong is to set up a working group to boost AI development and is to set up a task force to help mainland Chinese companies go overseas. Furthermore, Lee said the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is to encourage banks to establish regional headquarters in Hong Kong, and the HKEX is to lure more Southeast Asia companies for secondary listing.
China trials its first advanced tools for AI chipmaking with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made machinery as Beijing seeks to rival US-made processors, according to FT.
Wells Fargo (WFC) banker who had been barred from leaving China for several months, has been allowed to return to the US, according to the Washington Post.
China August crude iron ore output +8.8% Y/Y at 81.63mln metric tons, according to stats bureau Alumina +7.5% Y/Y. Refined Copper +14.8% Y/Y. Lead +3.7% Y/Y. Zinc +22.8% Y/Y.
Indonesian Central Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps to 4.75% (exp. 5.00%, prev. 5.00%)
DATA RECAP
Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Aug) -242.5B vs. Exp. -513.6B (Prev. -117.5B, Rev. -118.4B)
Japanese Exports YY (Aug) -0.1% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -2.6%)
Japanese Imports YY (Aug) -5.2% vs. Exp. -4.2% (Prev. -7.5%, Rev. -7.4%)
2c) Asian report
Mixed APAC trade into the FOMC and Trump, DXY flat & fixed steady – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 01:50 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed with global risk sentiment cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision.
White House said it was further extending the TikTok enforcement delay, with the deadline to sell TikTok extended until December 16th.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.3% on Tuesday.
DXY is flat after yesterday’s selling pressure. EUR/USD retains a firm footing on a 1.18 handle, GBP awaits UK inflation metrics.
USTs and Bunds are steady. Crude futures slightly eased back from this week’s peak.
Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ HICP Final (Aug), New Zealand GDP (Q2), US Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, Fed Chair Powell, BoC’s Macklem & US President Trump, Supply from Germany & UK, Earnings from General Mills.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were rangebound and finished with marginal losses as traders awaited the pivotal FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where the Fed is widely expected to cut by 25bps, but there remains an outside risk of a larger cut, and the attention will also be on the accompanying commentary and updated SEPs. There were some data releases in the form of Retail Sales, which printed above expectations across the board, while Import/Export Prices came in hotter than expected, and Industrial Production unexpectedly rose in August, but did little to inspire, with markets cautious ahead of this week’s main risk event.
SPX -0.13% at 6,607, NDX -0.08% at 24,274, DJI -0.27% at 45,758, RUT -0.09% at 2,403.
White House said it was further extending the TikTok enforcement delay, with the deadline to sell TikTok extended until December 16th.
US-China TikTok agreement is similar to the one worked out earlier this year, according to Reuters citing three sources.
TikTok deal would create a new US entity and would require US users to migrate to a new app, while ByteDance would own 20% of US TikTok, according to WSJ.
Chinese state media noted regarding US-China trade talks in Madrid that China will review and approve matters related to TikTok, technology export and intellectual property in accordance with the law, while it added that an agreement on TikTok is in the interests of both sides.
China and the US are in the “final stage” of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, with bulk purchases of American goods a critical part of the deliverables, according to sources cited by South China Morning Post.
EU and Indonesia concluded talks on a trade deal which they plan to sign next week as they accelerate efforts to reduce dependence on China and the US, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US House Republicans release draft bill which would fund the government through November 21st.
US House may vote on the Continuing Resolution before Friday, which could possibly occur on Thursday, while GOP leaders would like to waive the 72-hour rule if they can, according to Politico.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed with global risk sentiment cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision where the Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut for this year.
ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in the Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Miners and Materials sectors front-running the declines, while there was some resilience seen in Utilities, Energy and Tech.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and briefly returned to the 45,000 level with price action choppy following initial currency headwinds and mixed Japanese trade data in which Exports fell for a 4th consecutive month, albeit at a much slower-than-feared pace, while Imports printed a wider-than-anticipated contraction.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by tech strength as Baidu (9888 HK) rallied after an analyst upgrade due to optimism regarding its in-house chip venture and with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made advanced chip-making machinery. Furthermore, Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee made several pledges in his policy address, while China also recently issued measures on increasing consumption.
US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C) remained subdued with participants bracing for the FOMC rate decision, updated SEPs and presser.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.3% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY regained some composure after retreating beneath the 97.00 level yesterday, despite better-than-expected US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data, while markets now await the looming Fed rate decision, and participants will also be eyeing the latest dot plots, statement and post-meeting presser for clues on policy.
EUR/USD retained a firm footing at the 1.1800 handle after benefitting from the dollar’s recent demise to print a YTD high.
GBP/USD held on to the prior day’s spoils after gradually edging higher post-jobs data but with upside capped ahead of UK CPI, while participants will also be eyeing any agreements with US President Trump currently in the UK for a state visit.
USD/JPY lacked conviction after being dragged lower yesterday by a weaker buck and following mixed Japanese trade data.
Antipodeans pared some of the prior day’s mild gains amid the mixed overnight risk appetite with the FOMC horizon.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1013 vs exp. 7.1021 (Prev. 7.1027).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures lacked direction after yesterday’s choppy performance and with participants tentative ahead of the FOMC, while an overall solid 20yr auction stateside did little to spur prices as participants await today’s FOMC policy announcement.
Bund futures kept afloat within tight parameters following recent whipsawing and ahead of today’s Bund issuances.
10yr JGB futures initially conformed to the non-committal mood across global peers following mixed trade data from Japan which showed a narrower-than-feared contraction in exports, but was later mildly supported after the latest 20yr JGB auction which resulted in the highest bid-to-cover since May 2020.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures slightly eased back from this week’s peak after rallying yesterday, with support seen after a report that Russia’s Transneft informed producers it is restricting oil storage in its systems and that Russia could be forced to cut oil output.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.4mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate +1.9mln (exp. +1.0mln), Gasoline -0.7mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing -0.4mln.
Japan’s JERA reportedly in advanced talks to buy USD 1.7bln worth of US natural gas production assets.
Spot gold marginally declined with headwinds seen alongside selling pressure in metals, including a 1% drop in silver, shortly after Shanghai commodities trade got underway, and with demand subdued ahead of today’s Fed rate decision.
Copper futures retreated amid the mixed risk appetite in the region and cautiousness heading into today’s main risk event.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin ultimately weakened on what was a choppy and rangebound performance above the USD 116k level.
Binance reportedly nears a deal to escape the compliance monitor imposed by the DoJ, according to Bloomberg.
UK is set to announce closer co-operation on cryptocurrencies and UK Chancellor Reeves hopes greater regulatory alignment will allow better access to America’s deep capital markets, according to FT.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee reaffirmed economic growth of 2%-3% for this year in the annual policy address, while he said they will accelerate development of the northern metropolis area close to the mainland China border, will continue to increase public housing supply, and create land for large development projects. Lee also stated that Hong Kong is to set up a working group to boost AI development and is to set up a task force to help mainland Chinese companies go overseas. Furthermore, Lee said the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is to encourage banks to establish regional headquarters in Hong Kong, and the HKEX is to lure more Southeast Asia companies for secondary listing.
China trials its first advanced tools for AI chipmaking with SMIC (981 HK) testing domestically-made machinery as Beijing seeks to rival US-made processors, according to FT.
Wells Fargo (WFC) banker who had been barred from leaving China for several months, has been allowed to return to the US, according to the Washington Post.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Aug) -242.5B vs. Exp. -513.6B (Prev. -117.5B, Rev. -118.4B)
Japanese Exports YY (Aug) -0.1% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -2.6%)
Japanese Imports YY (Aug) -5.2% vs. Exp. -4.2% (Prev. -7.5%, Rev. -7.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Japan will not recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly, according to Asahi.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US President Trump posted on Truth “I had a wonderful phone call with my friend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi…Thank you for your support on ending the War between Russia and Ukraine!”
Indian PM Modi said, like US President Trump, he is also fully committed to taking the India-US comprehensive and global partnership to new heights, while he supports Trump’s initiatives towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
European Commission President von der Leyen said they will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil imports, while she had a call with US President Trump on strengthening joint efforts to raise economic pressure on Russia.
IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant reported hearing shelling close to the site on Tuesday and saw black smoke rising from three locations nearby after multiple artillery shells struck an area outside of the nuclear power plant site perimeter, although there were no reports of casualties or equipment damage.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Office for Budget Responsibility told UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy, according to CityAM.
Microsoft’s (MSFT) president said they will invest over USD 30bln in the UK over the next four years, and will spend USD 15.1bln on UK operations, including a London AI lab, gaming, and other work.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
US Army Places US Typhon Missiles In Japan For First Time, Enraging China
Tuesday, Sep 16, 2025 – 10:10 PM
The United States continues using regional Asian allies to counter-signal China and flex its military might, following President Xi Jinping’s massive military parade marking the 80th anniversary of World War II, which gripped the world’s attention two weeks ago.
This week the US Army has unveiled a midrange Typhon missile system on a Japanese base for the first time. The deployment comes in the context of the annual bilateral exercise Resolute Dragon; however, US officials have made clear the Typhon won’t be fired, but is only there for training purposes.
We previewed earlier that the Typhon, also dubbed ‘Mid-Range Capability’, is a land-based missile launcher that can fire nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range exceeding 1,000 miles, and SM-6 missiles, which can hit targets up to 290 miles away.
The missile system would have been banned under the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty with Russia that the US withdrew from in 2019. This has naturally caused immense alarm in Beijing, as has Washington’s deepening military relationship with Japan.
More than 19,000 U.S. and Japanese service members are participating in the exercise by rehearsing crisis response and contingency operations, with a focus on controlling and defending key maritime terrain, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.
Delivered last month to the U.S. base in Iwakuni, the missile system is capable of firing the Standard Missile-6 and the Tomahawk cruise missiles. The missile showcase follows its deployment in the Philippines last year. Russia and China criticized the U.S., accusing the country of fueling an arms race.
Col. Wade Germann, commander of the task force that operates the missile system, said at a televised press briefing in Japan that “Integrating this system into Resolute Dragon affords us the opportunity to conduct tough and realistic training with our partners.”
“Through employing multiple systems and different types of munitions, it is able to create dilemmas for the enemy,” he added. Beijing can’t help but assume it is the presumed “enemy” being talked about here.
On Tuesday, an alarmed and incensed Chinese Foreign Ministryurged the Typhon systems’ immediately removal from Japan.
“The US and Japan need to earnestly respect other countries’ security concerns and play a positive role for regional peace and stability with concrete actions, not the other way around,” the statement from spokesman Lin Jian said.
Beijing further called on Washington and Tokyo to “heed the call from regional countries, correct the wrong move and pull out the system as soon as possible. Due to its history of militarist aggression, Japan’s military and security moves always draw close attention from its Asian neighbors and the international community,” according to Lin’s words.
END
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
Beijing Bans Alibaba, ByteDance From Buying Nvidia’s Custom AI Chip
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 07:20 AM
China’s Cyberspace Administration (CAC) has barred Alibaba, ByteDance, and other tech firms from purchasing Nvidia’s AI chips, including the RTX Pro 6000D custom-built for the Chinese market. The timing underscores the ongoing Sino-US trade spat and tech showdown, as President Trump pushes to force a sale of China-associated TikTok to a U.S. company. Later this week, Trump is expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade and the fate of TikTok likely on the agenda.
The Financial Times reports that the CAC is going beyond earlier restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chip. The curbs now extend to the RTX Pro 6000D, forcing major Chinese tech firms to abandon their planned large orders.
People familiar with the situation said some tech firms had tens of thousands of the RTX6000D, designed mainly for AI inference tasks, in the order pipeline. Regulators have concluded that domestic chips achieved the same performance as that of Nvidia’s model.
On Monday, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws. While SAMR provided few details, the ruling stems from an antitrust probe that began with a preliminary investigation in 2020.
By Tuesday, the SCMP reported that the RTX6000D has so far received muted demand in China. JPMorgan told clients last month that it expected some 1.5 million RTX6000Ds to be produced in the second half of this year, while Morgan Stanley predicted in July that Nvidia would have 2 million RTX6000Ds in its pipeline.
The RTX 6000D is based on Nvidia’s latest Blackwell architecture with conventional graphics double data rate memory and a memory bandwidth of 1,398 gigabytes per second, just below the 1.4 terabyte threshold set by the U.S. in April. It was developed in part to fill a void left by the H20, which was banned from sale in April before that decision was reversed.
What’s clear is that Beijing is putting pressure on Nvidia ahead of the Trump-Xi talks later this week – think of it as a form of leverage.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment but acknowledged the geopolitical storm, noting that Nvidia can only serve markets where it’s welcome.
“We can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be,” Huang told reporters in London. “I’m disappointed with what I see. But they have larger agendas to work out, between China and the U.S., and I’m understanding of that. We are patient about it.”
Shares of Nvidia are down 1.5% in premarket trading in New York. On the year, shares are up 30%. The chart below shows that upside price action has stalled since mid-August. The $180 level is the current resistance.
. . .
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY AfD
AfD Triples Support In Germany’s Most Populous State, CDU & SPD Both Lose Votes
In the first major state elections since the new government, North Rhine-Westphalia went to the polls, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) coming out on top while the Social Democrats (SPD) crashed in support. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the third-strongest party in the state, more than tripling its support from the last elections.
The state, which has 14 million eligible voters, served as a major litmus test for the new government.
The CDU was the clear winner, earning 33 percent of the vote, compared to its 2020 total of 34.2 percent.
The AfD was seen as growing its support substantially, jumping to 14.5 percent of the vote, a clear jump from 5.1 percent in the last elections. However, the party actually received a higher share of the vote during the federal elections, meaning support for the party appears to be stagnating.
Nevertheless, the establishment views the AfD results as a worrying sign.
“This result should give us pause and cannot let us sleep peacefully,” said North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, of the CDU, to the “Report from Berlin.”
The left-wing SPD was seen as one of the big losers, falling to 22 percent in what was once considered one of its heartlands. In 1994, the party received 42 percent of the vote.
The far-left Green Party also sunk dramatically, going from 20 percent to 13.4 percent.
The local elections could have implications for the federal coalition between the CDU and SPD. With the SPD losing votes, it could turn more sharply against the CDU, with the two parties already sharply clashing over judicial appointments.
The votes were for thousands of candidates, including those running for district councilor, mayor, districting administrators, and other positions.
However, a looming crisis has to do with the fact that a majority of municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Only 16 out of 427 were able to put forward balanced budgets in 2024.
A number of run-off votes will also be taking place on Sept. 28. The CDU and SPD are combining forces to block AfD candidates. For the first time, the AfD will be in mayoral run-offs, including Norbert Emmerich in Gelsenkirchen, who scored 29.8 percent of the vote. However, he is far behind the SPD opponent, Andrea Henze, who received 37.1 percent of the votes.
In many of the other races, the AfD candidate appears to have little chance of victory.
NRW woes
Unemployment is growing in the German state, with 800,000 jobless reported in August. Bankruptcies are also growing, jumping to 3,190 in the first half of 2025, a 17.2 percent increase.
The AfD is still celebrating its results. Party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated on X, writing it was a “great success.” However, the actual totals for the AfD turned out to be slightly less than exit polls initially predicted.
The AfD, however, continues to grow in strength in the east of the country. Furthermore, new polls show the party hitting close to 20 percent in Bavaria.
The party will still need to boost its support to close to 20 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia and other Western states if it ever hopes to secure the support of 30 percent of voters nationwide, one of its key goals. If it ever manages to secure such a voting share, it would make forming coalitions without the party at the federal level nearly impossible.
Germany’s Shadow Budgets: Bundesbank Warns Of Fiscal Collapse
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
With the creation of “special funds” and shadow budgets, the German government is evading fiscal transparency and undermining parliamentary control – a practice now sharply criticized by both the Bundesbank and the Federal Audit Office.
France, meanwhile, offers a warning of where this path leads. Political chaos in Paris culminated in fiscal humiliation last week when Fitch Ratings downgraded French sovereign debt from AA– to A+. France has maneuvered itself into a debt spiral, fueled by unchecked government spending and a misguided attempt to paper over social fractures with cheap credit.
Shadow Budgets and Statism
Germany, instead of avoiding France’s mistakes, appears determined to follow them. The fiscal discipline that characterized the postwar era is long gone. Across party lines, there is consensus in Berlin: with creative accounting tricks in the form of “special funds,” the debt brake can simply be ignored. The pinnacle of this new strategy is Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s trillion-euro debt package, which includes a €500 billion special fund.
The official justification is noble: defense spending must not be constrained by the bond market, and Germany’s crumbling infrastructure must be modernized. Packaged nicely in the media, the German public is expected to accept this new mountain of debt. After all, it is supposedly “for the greater good.”
But the German Taxpayers’ Association has labeled these special funds exactly what they are: a colossal debt-shuffling scheme. In practice, spending that should be tax-financed is quietly offloaded into shadow budgets that rely on new borrowing.
Manipulation Everywhere
The bond market itself has become little more than a derivative of monetary policy. Berlin, like its European neighbors, is clearly relying on the European Central Bank to keep the debt pile liquid and to step in whenever investors retreat.
Together with Brussels’ interventionism, this has created a political framework that openly encourages state overreach. Parliamentary oversight has all but disappeared. More than half of Germany’s GDP already passes through state hands – a level of intervention unthinkable a generation ago.
Berlin’s strategic consensus is striking: the very state that manufactured the crisis – through suffocating regulation, a self-inflicted energy disaster, bloated public finances, and crushing taxation – now claims it will solve the crisis by doubling down on intervention. The logic is that of a kleptocratic alcoholic in a bar: he runs a tab, borrows from his neighbors, and when generosity runs out, steals directly from the counter. Ultimately, it is this debt binge, this addiction to central planning, that will bring Germany down as both a political and economic model.
There is little meaningful opposition. Whether in parliament or in the intellectual sphere, critics lack the resonance to form a powerful public phalanx against this destructive policy path.
Criticism From Unlikely Quarters
Now, however, criticism has emerged from an unexpected source: the German Bundesbank. Rarely intervening in day-to-day politics, the central bank used its August monthly report to criticize the use of special funds. It warned bluntly that billions earmarked for local governments would likely be diverted to fill existing budget gaps rather than finance infrastructure and climate projects, as promised.
The Bundesbank also pointed to the absence of effective structures for efficiency control. By outsourcing vast parts of the federal budget into special funds, Berlin is obscuring the country’s true fiscal position and undermining budget discipline.
Criticism of runaway statism is nothing new. What is striking, however, is that core state institutions such as the Bundesbank are now joining the chorus. The Bundesbank projects Germany’s deficit will climb to 4% of GDP over the next two years – and that is under the optimistic assumption that the economy does not deteriorate further.
Its report leaves little doubt: the €100 billion in funds allocated to states and municipalities will likely be misused, rather than going into the infrastructure investments so loudly promised to the public.
The Firefighting State
Meanwhile, ordinary citizens – at least those still in the productive economy – waste their days in crumbling public transport, endless traffic jams on decaying highways, or waiting at the foot of collapsing bridges.
Germany, according to the Bundesbank, is operating in “firefighting mode” – patching up budgetary gaps and social spending programs instead of addressing structural problems. Much of the new spending, it warns, risks being consumed by short-term consumption rather than long-term investment.
The central bank has therefore proposed reforms to strictly limit borrowing capacity and to enforce transparency. At best, it sees special funds with their own borrowing authority as a temporary solution – one that would still require strict parliamentary oversight.
Support From the Federal Audit Office
The Bundesbank’s stance is reinforced by the Federal Audit Office, which for months has been calling for tighter, more targeted use of new credit funds. It has demanded that Berlin reserve the right to claw back funds that are misused – a measure based on bitter experience. Past budgets, from integration funds to inflated COVID-19 aid packages, were set high precisely so that excess money could later be diverted to plug welfare deficits.
The trick is simple: new debt is hidden from the public, while the true costs are shifted into the future. A short-term stimulus effect may provide the ruling coalition with breathing space against rising opposition – but at the price of structural decline.
Straight Toward Insolvency
That Berlin is using shadow budgets to buy time is hardly surprising. There is bipartisan conviction in the capital that creative accounting and oversized state demand can somehow solve both the fiscal crisis and the economic malaise.
But this is pure Keynesian delusion. The state as Leviathan, pretending to be omnipotent – and yet repeatedly colliding with reality. When central planning fails, the blame is always shifted onto the bond market, which stubbornly refuses to accept the illusion that debt-financed interventions can solve everything.
Regardless of how it is structured, the “special fund” is nothing but a monument to political failure. Responsibility lies squarely with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who endorsed the scheme both for coalition reasons and out of personal conviction.
The principle remains clear: every euro siphoned from private capital markets and funneled into the redistribution machine of the state is a lost euro. And every debt-financed state policy leaves behind nothing but new liabilities – to be paid later through taxes or inflation.
There is no free lunch. Only bad policy.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
POLAND/USA
Poland Receives Single Largest Delivery Of M1 Abrams Tanks From US
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 02:45 AM
The Western allies continue to bolster defenses of the largest NATO ‘eastern flank’ country which borders Ukraine, parallel to Russia ramping up its drone and missile attacks across the war-ravaged country.
Poland this week has received 38 new M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States, marking the largest single delivery so far under a defense agreement signed in 2022. It was the third delivery under the contract.
The delivery brings the total number of American-made tanks delivered to Poland to 85, with more expected through 2026, based on the contract.
The shipment included additional support equipment, such as 14 recovery vehicles designed to tow damaged tanks off the battlefield. The deal will also see the transfer of bridging systems and ammunition for the tanks.
The Polish armed forces already possess German Leopard 2s, South Korean K2 Black Panthers, and Polish-made PT-91s – but the Abrams are part of an effort of Warsaw to rapidly modernize its forces, with the Ukraine war raging just next door.
The very first shipment was back in January of this year, and included over two dozen of the US main battle tanks. In total the contract stipulates 250 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks to be delivered through 2026. These have enhanced packages for greater maneuverability, advanced tech, and greater crew protections than the standard Abrams.
American military magazine Stripes previously wrote:
For the Polish army, the Abrams tank serves as the centerpiece of a modernization effort that has picked up momentum in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.
Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.
In the wake of last week’s Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, Warsaw officials have only grown more hawkish in wanting to ‘stand up’ to Russia.
For example, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said.
Commenting on the drone breach incident, The Washington Postobserved on Monday, “The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
END
NATO/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
‘Eastern Sentry’: The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Some eight NATO allies have prepared operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ following last week’s alleged Russian drone breach of Poland. It is a new joint military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank, also after Romania had more recently reported a Russian drone incursion, resulting in the scrambling of fighter jets to track it.
“Following the Russian drone incursions into Poland, I have decided to deploy three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and of NATO’s Eastern Flank together with our Allies,” President Emmanuel Macron announced on X this week. Along with France, the effort includes the UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Spain, and The Netherlands. More nations are expected to join.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that his country will deploy Royal Air Force jets to Poland, while Italy will contribute two Eurofighter jets, and Germany has readied four Eurofighters. Denmark will also sent jets, and Czech Mi-171S helicopters have also arrived in Poland. Over 150 NATO troops have also initially arrived along with the equipment.
Meanwhile, eastern European and Baltic countries are already calling for more, including:
Anti-drone defense systems in NATO countries still need to be developed, Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics told a press conference on Tuesday.
NATO on Friday launched “Eastern Sentry,” a new military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace last week.
The Washington Postwrote on Monday, “The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
Additionally, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said.
“Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory … If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it,” he added.
The Kremlin has essentially called this ‘idiotic’ and has made clear this would assure a direct Russia-NATO clash, likely leading to WW3. Much will depend on what Washington says, and its own potential role in ‘Eastern Sentry’.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
iSRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu says he’ll meet Trump again, issues dire warning to Hamas over hostages
PM attacks Qatar as supporter of Hamas, says intel on results of Doha strike ‘not fully conclusive’ and claims negative response from markets to his ‘Sparta’ remark a ‘misunderstanding’
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference at the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, September 16, 2025.(Marc Israel Sellem/POOL)
US President Donald Trump invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet at the White House later this month, the Israeli leader said at a Tuesday press conference in Jerusalem, while warning Hamas against harming hostages as the military operates in Gaza City.
According to Netanyahu, the visit will take place on September 29, three days after the premier’s scheduled address at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Netanyahu announced the meeting during a press conference focusing on the state of Israel’s economy after he faced intense criticism for saying a day earlier that the country would need to become increasingly self-reliant.
Netanyahu said the invitation came during a phone call on Monday, adding that he has held several conversations with Trump since Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, and all of them were “good.”
This would be the fourth meeting between the leaders in the White House since Trump’s second term began in January.
It would come amid US backing for Israel’s major offensive in Gaza City, which kicked off early Tuesday as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took off for Qatar.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to the press as he departs Tel Aviv for Qatar following an official visit, at Ben Gurion International Airport, near Lod, Israel, September 16, 2025. (Nathan Howard / POOL / AFP)
During the trip, Rubio showed firm support for Israel, saying that the “ideal outcome” is for Hamas to simply surrender, but “it may require ultimately a concise military operation to eliminate them.”
He chose not to add to international criticism of Israel for its strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week, saying on Monday, “We are focused on what happens next.”
The strike — which killed five non-leading members of Hamas and a Qatari security officer, but apparently none of its five key intended Hamas leadership targets — elicited fury from Arab governments, which convened for an emergency gathering Monday over the attack.
This handout picture provided by the Palestinian Authority’s press office shows Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (L) received by Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani upon arrival in Doha on September 14, 2025, ahead of an Arab-Islamic emergency summit. (Thaer GHANAIM / PPO / AFP)
Trump claims that he had not had knowledge of the attack in time to stop it. However, an Axios report indicated that Netanyahu told Trump 50 minutes before the strike.
Asked on Tuesday if he notified Trump ahead of the strike, Netanyahu repeated his statement that the White House version of events was “correct,” and that Israel was solely responsible for the strike.
Asked by The Times of Israel about whether he still sees Qatar as a mediator in indirect talks with Hamas, Netanyahu said that “if Qatar wanted, it could easily apply much harder pressure, which would help us free all of our hostages in the first months of the war.”
Families of hostages held in Gaza and their supporters protest outside the Prime Minister’s Residence in Jerusalem, calling for their release, September 16, 2025. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
“It is tied to Hamas,” he charged. “It strengthens Hamas. It hosts Hamas. It funds Hamas. It has much stronger levers, and it chose not to do that.”
As such, he insisted, the strike against Hamas leaders in Qatar “was entirely justified.”
“There was an attempt to use them in a partial manner” during the war, Netanyahu continued, without mentioning he had worked with Qatar to send millions of dollars into Gaza every month in the years before the Hamas-led terror onslaught that started the war.
He declined to give an update on whether any Hamas leaders were killed: “We’re still checking it out. It’s not yet fully conclusive. We’re waiting to see it.”
Netanyahu also refused to answer shouted questions about his own advisers who are under investigation for allegedly receiving money from Qatar to push a public relations campaign casting the emirate in a positive light after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.
Markets spooked by ‘misunderstanding’
Netanyahu called the press conference as a damage-control measure after admitting Monday that Israel was facing increasing isolation and warned that it might be required to become a “super-Sparta.”
The premier said that markets’ negative reaction to his remarks was a “misunderstanding.”
“There was a misunderstanding that supposedly shook the stock market,” he said. ““It didn’t shake us. And the reason it didn’t shake us is one thing: because essentially, the stock market—the markets—understand what I said, the strength of Israel’s economy, and the profitability of investing in Israel. And this is very important for ensuring our future.”
“My remarks were on the attempt to restrict the import of parts, components, weapons, or raw materials – and that indeed is something that does not operate according to market economics, but according to political economics —-governments, leaders, politics,” he added, insisting the economy was sound.
Netanyahu, who frequently switched between English and Hebrew during the press conference, depending on who his message was targeted at, noted that while “Western European governments are generally friendly toward Israel,” they are “pressured by Islamic minorities that have formed within them—some of whom are very extreme.”
Decades of organized anti-Israel propaganda, he added, have compounded the pressure, which “expresses itself as restrictions on parts of weapon systems or the systems themselves.”
Several EU countries have announced in recent days that they would move towards arms embargoes on Israel and stop buying Israeli weapons amid the Gaza war.
Demonstrators take part in an anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian rally titled “Stop the genocide in Gaza! No weapons in war zones! Peace instead of arms race!” on September 13, 2025, at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. (John MACDOUGALL / AFP)
The prime minister said Israel must “develop these ourselves, arm ourselves, and ensure we have the ability to defend ourselves,” even if that requires moving temporarily to “a centralized, closed economy, something I generally dislike — I prefer open markets.”
“But here, I want to take all the necessary steps to build a strong, independent defense industry. If there is one lesson from this war, this is it,” he said.
Even though Netanyahu announced he would hold an economic press conference, Channel 12 reported that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich refused to take part in the event, despite being invited.
During a meeting with Netanyahu Monday, Smotrich reportedly told Netanyahu: ‘You caused the damage, you fix it.”
A warning to Hamas
With the Israel Defense Forces carrying out massive strikes in Gaza City, and desperate Israeli families of hostages said they were “terrified” for their loved ones, questions at Netanyahu’s press conference also focused on the push into Gaza’s biggest city.
An IDF tank moves towards Gaza City at the start of an IDF operation to capture the city in a picture released on September 16, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)
Netanyahu said he discussed the issue of the hostages with Trump in their latest phone call.
Netanyahu said the two “discussed a possibility that came up, which is very, very important in my eyes — dealing with the issue of the hostages’ security.”
“As Hamas’s spokesperson said, they used our hostages as human shields — that is, placed them in locations that would endanger them. This is horrifying. It also horrified the president. He addressed it,” Netanyahu said, referring to remarks by Trump on Monday warning Hamas against using the hostages as human shields.
Displaced Palestinians move with their belongings southwards on a road in the Nuseirat refugee camp area in the central Gaza Strip following renewed Israeli evacuation orders for Gaza City on September 16, 2025. (Eyad BABA / AFP)
Netanyahu added his own warning to Hamas, saying: “If they harm a hair on the head of even one hostage, we will hunt them down with greater force until the end of their lives—and that end will come much faster than they think.”
“And this is what I say to Hamas’s leaders,” Netanyahu continued, “You will have no shelter anyway. But our effort to reach you will be redoubled sevenfold, and we will reach you much faster than you think.”
Hostage families have expressed severe concern for their loved ones over reports that Hamas is keeping hostages in Gaza City to deter Israeli forces from attacking.
Addressing reports of fierce disagreement between him and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir over how to conduct the war in Gaza, Netanyahu said that “false” leaks and “biased” briefings are hurting the war effort.
“I think it is absolutely unacceptable that leaks that are often false, and briefings that are almost always biased and agenda-driven, are being released,” he said.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir speaks to officers in the West Bank, September 8, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
“These things make it harder to manage the war, they clearly delay the release of our hostages, and they endanger our soldiers — and they also lower their morale,” he continued, adding that “These are things that must not be done. That is why I do not comment on specific matters of this kind.”
At the press conference — — which saw journalists rushed to the basement of the Prime Minister’s Office shortly beforehand as sirens sounded in the wake of a Houthi missile being launched from Yemen — Netanyahu called for accelerated efforts to evacuate Palestinians from Gaza City, saying it would help ensure the war’s swift end.
“Right now, [Gazans] are leaving Gaza City, and so far almost 400,000 have already left,” Netanyahu said, adding that in a discussion at the IDF command bunker in Tel Aviv earlier in the day, “I instructed them to find ways to make it easier for them to leave.”
Smoke billows as Israeli airstrikes destroy the al-Ghafari tower in Gaza City on September 15, 2025. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)
“They want to leave, they want to get out of the city, because they want to — they are responding to us, not to Hamas, which, by the way, occasionally even shoots at them to stop them from doing so,” he said.
Netanyahu said the effort to evacuate Gazans from the city ahead of the major offensive “is succeeding, but we need to intensify it — to help, to accelerate it — because we have an interest in ending the war quickly, and not ending it in defeat.”
“To those who say, ‘Come on, finish, just end it’ – ending it in defeat would be an enormous victory for the forces of evil, for Iran’s axis of evil, which would quickly recover from this, because everyone is watching who wins. If [Hamas] survives there, if they remain there, they will call that a victory – and of course, we want to achieve the opposite effect,” he continued.
Last week, the IDF ordered Palestinians in all areas of Gaza City to evacuate immediately ahead the offensive. However, moving can be costly, and space is at a premium in the overcrowded south of the Strip. Many had said they would not leave, exhausted from repeated displacement over the course of the 23-month-old war.
IDF estimates from Tuesday morning indicated that more than 370,000 Palestinians had evacuated Gaza City. That contradicted a UN estimate issued earlier in the day that said around 220,000 Palestinians had fled northern Gaza over the past month.
Regarding voluntary departure from Gaza — a goal Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners are eager to see achieved — the prime minister said, “This possibility certainly exists; it has not been taken off the table. But it is not an active campaign we are running. It’s not something we are pushing.”
He condemned international opposition to the idea. “Unlike in other war zones in the world, they say it is immoral to allow them to leave. I think what is immoral is not to allow them to leave,” he said.
END
Dozens said killed in strikes as thousands flee Gaza City, but some vow to stay put
On IDF ground offensive’s second day, many Gazans say nowhere is safe; aid groups call for more pressure to stop operation; strikes said to cut internet, phone service
Displaced Palestinians flee Gaza City on foot and in vehicles, carrying their belongings along the coastal road toward southern Gaza, September 17, 2025. (AP/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Dozens of Palestinians were said to have been killed in Israel Defense Force strikes across Gaza on Wednesday, as the military said Palestinians continued to flee Gaza City amid a major offensive in the Strip’s largest urban area.
At least 30 people were killed across the Strip in Israeli strikes, including 19 in Gaza City, local Hamas-run health authorities said. Israeli forces continued to bombard the city and other parts of the Strip overnight and into Wednesday, the second day of the IDF’s ground offensive in the area.
The casualty figures could not be independently verified and did not differentiate between fighters and civilians. Gazan health officials said they included several women and children.
The IDF said the air force struck some 50 targets in the Strip overnight, most of them in Gaza City, with some 140 targets hit over a 24-hour period. The military said the targets included tunnels, buildings used by terror groups, cells of operatives, and other infrastructure, but provided few additional details about the intensified operation.
According to reports, Israeli troops blew up remote-controlled explosive-laden unmanned vehicles in the northwest Tel al-Hawa neighborhood and in Gaza City’s south. During the war, the IDF has repurposed decommissioned APCs by packing them with explosives and attaching remote-control capabilities, in order to drive them into areas with Hamas infrastructure without risking the lives of troops.
Airstrikes and artillery fire were reported in several areas around the edges of the city.
On Wednesday, the military estimated that some 400,000 Palestinians had so far evacuated Gaza City. But it remains heavily populated despite a general evacuation order from the IDF, which has instructed civilians to move south to a humanitarian zone.
This picture, taken from a position at Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip, shows smoke billowing during an Israeli strike on September 17, 2025. (Jack GUEZ / AFP)
Around 1 million Palestinians were estimated to be residing in the city before the IDF began preparations for its offensive there against Hamas. In recent days, the pace of evacuations has accelerated to tens of thousands of people a day, according to the army.
That increasing rate has led to overcrowding as people make their way out of the city. Until now, Gazans have only been able to leave via the Rashid coastal road, which has been inundated with foot and vehicle traffic as thousands move south to avoid the onslaught.
But on Wednesday, the military announced that it would facilitate a second evacuation route on Salah a-Din, the main north-south highway in Gaza, which will remain open until noon on Friday. Salah a-Din, a main inland artery running to central Gaza, was used as a principal evacuation route during an offensive in Gaza City in the first months of the war.
Displaced Palestinians headed southward a day after Israel unleashed a long-threatened ground assault on Gaza City, declaring ‘Gaza is burning’ as Palestinians there described the most intense bombardment they had faced in two years of war https://t.co/MQrEsYzN14pic.twitter.com/GtiSlYkYTb
Still, many Gazans say nowhere is safe and instead have vowed to stay in their homes despite the IDF’s order to evacuate.
“I won’t leave Gaza. There’s shelling here and there,” said Umm Ahmed Yunes, who is living in her partially destroyed home.
She additionally lamented the high cost of moving.
“Where would I find $1,000 or $2,000 for transport costs? Where would I buy a tent? There are no tents and prices are insane,” said the 44-year-old. “Death is cheaper and more merciful.”
Displaced Palestinians flee Gaza City on foot and vehicles, carrying their belongings along the coastal road toward southern Gaza, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Fatima Lubbad, a mother of four, said she had left Gaza City along with 10 relatives but felt the ordeal was unbearable.
“I wish we would all die together,” said the 36-year-old.
“Last night we slept in the street by the sea in Deir el-Balah — there was nowhere to put a tent… I cried all night as I looked at my children sleeping on the ground,” she said.
A soldier operates in Gaza in a photo released on September 17, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
The military has estimated that, in addition to the approximately 600,000 civilians who have not yet evacuated, there are thousands of Hamas fighters in Gaza City. Additionally, a number of Israeli hostages are believed to be held in the city.
Terror groups in Gaza are holding 48 hostages, including 47 of the 251 abducted by Hamas-led terrorists during the October 7, 2023, attack that launched the war. Twenty hostages are believed to still be alive, while there are grave concerns for two others. The remainder are thought to be dead. Hamas is also holding the body of an IDF soldier killed in 2014.
As the ground and air operations in the city intensified, the Palestinian Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, based in the West Bank, said Israeli strikes on the main network lines in northern Gaza had collapsed internet and telephone services, cutting Gazans off from the outside world.
This picture taken from a position at Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip shows destroyed buildings in the Palestinian territory on September 17, 2025 (Jack GUEZ / AFP)
Meanwhile, a coalition of leading aid groups on Wednesday urged the international community to take stronger measures to stop Israel’s offensive in the city.
“What we are witnessing in Gaza is not only an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe, but what the UN Commission of Inquiry has now concluded is a genocide,” read the statement signed by leaders of over 20 aid organizations operating in Gaza, including the Norwegian Refugee Council, Anera, and Save the Children.
“States must use every available political, economic, and legal tool at their disposal to intervene,” the statement said. “Rhetoric and half measures are not enough. This moment demands decisive action.”
An Israeli military armored vehicle moves near the border fence with the Gaza Strip on September 17, 2025 (Jack GUEZ / AFP)
The statement referred to a report released Tuesday by a commission of UN experts, which accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. The panel’s findings were roundly rejected by Israel.
Israel has also strenuously contested accusations that there is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, saying that it makes efforts to deliver aid to Gaza’s civilians. It has accused the United Nations of delays in distributing aid and charged Hamas with stealing the supplies.
Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, known as COGAT, said that nearly 230 trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered the Strip on Tuesday through the Kerem Shalom and Zikim crossings.
According to COGAT, some 250 trucks’ worth of aid were collected by the United Nations and other international organizations from the Gaza side of the crossings Tuesday to be distributed. Similar amounts of aid deliveries have been reported daily in the past few weeks.
“The contents of hundreds of trucks are still awaiting collection on the Gaza side of the crossings,” COGAT said.
The UN has said 600 trucks of aid need to be distributed each day in order to properly feed the Strip’s roughly two million people amid the war.
Protesters call for an end to the war and a ceasefire-hostage deal on September 16, 2025 (AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP)
COGAT also said that “tankers of UN fuel entered for the operation of essential humanitarian systems” yesterday, and that it coordinated the entry and exit of humanitarian aid workers rotating in and out of Gaza.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 64,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed over 22,000 combatants in battle as of August and another 1,600 terrorists inside Israel during the October 7 onslaught, in which Hamas-led invaders killed some 1,200 people.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas fights from civilian areas, including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.
Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 465.
END
Israeli artillery, airstrikes on terrorists accompany Gaza City invasion as civilians evacuate
Netanyahu says Trump invited him to the White House • UN accuses Israel of genocide • Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza City ‘horrific,’ Canada says • Japan will not recognize Palestinian state
A convoy of Israeli tanks is deployed at Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip on September 16, 2025.(photo credit: Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Image
Loud explosions heard across the South due to operations in Gaza
Due to IDF operations on Wednesday, loud explosions were heard in the Gaza border communities and the Negev.
END
ISRAEL PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
it is about time;
PA document shows ‘pay-to-slay’ has been scrapped, new system in place
Ramallah says 3,000 people who received stipends based on prison sentence length are now ineligible, while 2,000 households will be added under new program based on financial need
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas outside the Government Palace in Beirut, Lebanon, May 22, 2025. (AP/Hassan Ammar)
The Palestinian Authority says it has completed the establishment of a new welfare program and finished phasing out a previous system that critics claimed incentivized terror attacks against Israelis, according to an update Ramallah shared with interlocutors that was obtained by The Times of Israel.
The document prepared by the body behind the program, the Palestinian National Economic Empowerment Institution (PNEEI), states that new criteria for adjudicating welfare stipends have been adopted and that over 3,000 individuals were accordingly notified that they no longer qualify for government assistance. At the same time, more than 2,000 households were informed that they will now be able to receive allowances for the first time under the new arrangement.
With Israel continuing to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of the PA’s tax revenue funds, Ramallah has been unable to issue the first round of welfare payments. However, the update shared with European officials earlier this month states that stipends for the month of June will be allocated based on the updated eligibility standards.
The PA is running several months behind in its salaries for public employees as well as its welfare payments due to the Israeli freeze on monthly clearance revenue transfers. Last week, Ramallah began to send salary payments to public employees for the month of June. Welfare payments, which are now distributed by the extra-governmental PNEEI, have not yet been issued.
A Palestinian source familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel that several hundred families of prisoners — a small portion of the total number of prisoners’ families — have been informed that they would continue receiving stipends, as they qualify based on their economic status. However, they will receive payments moving forward through the PNEEI, rather than the PA’s Prisoners and Martyrs Funds.
While the PNEEI has existed for several years, a new board of trustees along with professional staff has been appointed, the document obtained by The Times of Israel states.
Demonstrators dressed in human skeleton costumes carry bloodied bundles and raise pictures of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza and those detained by Israel, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, August 3, 2025. (Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
The update indicates that the PA has been making good on the decree signed by President Mahmoud Abbas in February, which canceled legislation that enshrined in law elements of its old welfare system that paid security prisoners based on the length of their sentence along with the families of slain attackers, in a program critics dubbed “pay to slay.”
Palestinian leaders long sought to defend the payments, describing them as a form of social welfare and necessary compensation for victims of a callous Israeli military justice system in the West Bank.
But the scheme exposed Ramallah to persistent criticism from the West and Israel, with the latter arguing that it demonstrated the PA was not a true partner for peace.
After years of pressure, Abbas began taking steps during the Biden administration to establish a new system allocating welfare stipends strictly based on economic need. He held off on announcing the move until after US President Donald Trump returned to office, hoping the reform would buy him some much-needed goodwill with the new administration.
Reforming the welfare policy is designed to bring the PA into compliance with the 2018 congressional legislation known as the Taylor Force Act, which suspended US aid to the PA as long as it continued granting prisoners stipends based on time served.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, right, meets then-US President Donald Trump In the West Bank city of Bethlehem on May 23, 2017. (Fadi Arouri, Xinhua Pool via AP)
The US would still be barred from directly funding the PA due to legislation preventing such aid once Ramallah began advancing investigations against Israel in the International Criminal Court. However, if the reform is deemed sufficient by Washington, the US would be able to fund projects that directly benefit the PA.
Earlier this year, the PA invited the US to send a delegation to Ramallah in order to certify that the new system is in place. But that invitation has gone unanswered, as the Trump administration has been largely uninterested in unfoldings in the West Bank, leading Ramallah to pay out of pocket to hire an international auditing firm to certify that the old system has been shelved and that the new one is up and running, a Western diplomat told The Times of Israel, adding that the review will likely take two to three months to complete.
In the meantime, US and Israeli officials have continued to refer to the PA’s old payment system as still in place, appearing to disregard the announced changes.
“The Palestinian Authority has its own set of problems – pay for slay – they pay people to kill Israelis,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this month.
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment on whether Rubio’s comments were based on new or outdated information regarding the PA’s welfare system.
end
ISRAEL EU
EU Commission proposes curb on trade with Israel over Gaza war
The European Commission has formally proposed a suspension of free-trade arrangements on Israeli goods due to the war in Gaza, even though the measure does not currently have sufficient support among the European Union’s member countries to pass.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also proposes a package of sanctions on National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, as well as on violent settlers and Hamas members.
“I want to be very clear, the aim is not to punish Israel. The aim is to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza,” Kallas says. “The war needs to end. The suffering must stop, and all hostages must be released.”
The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS/BEN AND JERRY
Ben & Jerry’s co-founder resigns after feud with parent Unilever over Gaza war
Unilever and Ben & Jerry’s have clashed since 2021, when the Chubby Hubby maker said it would stop sales in the West Bank.
Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield, co-founders of Ben & Jerry’s, partnered with MoveOn to hand out free ice cream at Franklin Square in Philadelphia.(photo credit: Lisa Lake/Getty Images for MoveOn)ByREUTERSSEPTEMBER 17, 2025 11:13
Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield, whose name helped shape the popular ice cream brand, has quit the company, as its rift with parent Unilever ULVR.L deepened over its stance on the Gaza conflict.
In an open letter addressing the Ben & Jerry’s community that was shared by his partner Ben Cohen on social media platform X on Wednesday, Greenfield said that the Vermont-based company has lost its independence since Unilever curtailed its social activism.
Unilever and Ben & Jerry’s have clashed since 2021, when the Chubby Hubby maker said it would stop sales in the West Bank.
JPost Videos
The brand has since sued its parent over alleged efforts to silence it and described the Gaza conflict as “genocide,” a rare stance for a major U.S. company.
Greenfield says he can no longer work for ‘silenced’ company
Greenfield said he could no longer “in good conscience” continue working for a company that had been “silenced” by Unilever, despite a merger agreement meant to safeguard the brand’s social mission.
Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s, poses with a sign as he protests against the Magnum Ice Cream Company capital markets day, outside a hotel in Grosvenor Square, in London, Britain September 9, 2025. (credit: Shokirie Clarke/Handout via REUTERS)
“That independence existed in no small part because of the unique merger agreement Ben and I negotiated with Unilever,” he wrote in the letter.
A spokesperson for Magnum Ice Cream Company, Unilever’s ice cream unit, said that it “disagrees with Greenfield’s perspective and has sought to engage both co-founders in a constructive conversation on how to strengthen Ben & Jerry’s powerful values-based position in the world.”
Magnum said Greenfield stepped down as a brand ambassador and that he is not a party to the lawsuit.
Unilever did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Greenfield’s departure comes as Ben & Jerry’s has been calling for its own spin-off ahead of a planned listing of Magnum Ice Cream in November after years of clashing over the U.S. brand’s vocal position on Gaza.
Last week Cohen demanded to “free Ben & Jerry’s” to protect its social values, which was rebuffed by new Magnum CEO Peter ter Kulve.
Cohen said the brand had attempted to engineer a sale to investors at a fair market value between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion but the proposal was rejected.
Ben & Jerry’s was founded by Cohen and Greenfield in a renovated gas station in 1978, and kept its socially conscious mission after Unilever bought it in 2000.
END
ISRAEL//CYPRUS VS TURKEY
Cyprus preparing in case its arch enemy Turkey attacks!
(Middle East Eye)
Israeli Air Defense In Cyprus Extends Intel Reach Over Turkey: ‘More Dangerous Than S-300s’
Israel delivered advanced air defense systems to Cyprus last week, marking the third shipment since December amid rising tensions with Turkey, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.
A video published on Thursday showed a truck passing through the port of Limassol transporting components of the Barak MX system, an aerial interceptor capable of striking threats up to 150km away. The Cypriot news site Reporter confirmed that the Barak MX system has now been fully delivered and is expected to become operational this year.
The delivery comes after Shay Gal, vice president of external relations at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which manufactures the Barak MX, argued in a July article that Israel should reconsider its approach toward Cyprus and devise military plans to “liberate” the island’s north from Turkish forces.
“Israel, in coordination with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare a contingency operation for liberating the island’s north,” Gal wrote. “Such an operation would neutralize Turkish reinforcement capabilities from the mainland, eliminate air-defense systems in northern Cyprus, destroy intelligence and command centers, and ultimately remove Turkish forces, restoring internationally recognized Cypriot sovereignty.”
Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 after a failed coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece. Since then, Cyprus has remained divided between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Ankara.
So far, Ankara has remained silent about the newly deployed systems, which carryadvanced surveillance and intelligence-gathering functions through their 3D radar. With a range of up to 460km, the system provides a “digital umbrella” that covers a significant part of southern Turkey’s airspace.
Turkey and southern Cyprus nearly came to war in 1997 after the latter attempted to acquire two Russian-made S-300 air defense missile systems, triggering threats of an all-out military response from Ankara.
The crisis ended when Greece accepted the S-300s on its territory, while Cyprus sought alternative systems. “This is a system far more dangerous than the S-300, which [southern Cyprus] ordered from Russia in 1997 but never deployed,” said Arda Mevlutoglu, a prominent Turkish defence analyst.
“Given the current state of military ties between Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration, this powerful air defense system and radar will undoubtedly become a central element of Israel’s intelligence network in the eastern Mediterranean.”
According to Mevlutoglu, the Barak MX poses a significant threat to Turkish air and ground forces both in Cyprus and across the wider eastern Mediterranean, as its radar is also capable of detecting artillery, mortar and rocket battery fire within 100km.
However, Reporter quoted a source suggesting that the Cypriot version of the Barak MX might not include all of its advertised features, since the system is customised for each client nation.
Yanki Bagcioglu, a retired rear admiral and deputy chairman of the Turkish opposition CHP party, called the system’s deployment a violation of international law. “This step will destabilise the fragile balance in the eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, while directly threatening Turkey’s national security,” he said.
Cypriot Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas defended the acquisition on Tuesday, arguing that his government has an obligation to develop credible deterrence capabilities as “Turkey continues to occupy” the island.
Asked whether the Barak MX purchase was part of a defense framework with Israel, Palmas stressed that Cyprus’s decisions on armaments are a sovereign matter. “Any confrontation between Israel and Turkey does not concern us, except in the sense that we follow the geopolitical developments in our region. Our primary duty is to protect ourselves,” he said.
Turkish security sources told Turkish media that the systems are currently undergoing tests at Paphos air base and have not yet been placed into active service. They added that subsequent Israeli shipments are being closely monitored.
I
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
ROBERT H;
“Europe is not even close to being able to fight a real fight. Armchair leadership with yesterday’s thinking”
NATO’s $400,000 missiles fail to stop $11,000 Russian drones in embarrassing air defense fiasco
NATO’s $400,000 missiles failed to stop Russia’s $11,000 drones, exposing a critical air defense weakness in Eastern Europe.
The alliance admits it lacks 95% of the air defenses needed to protect the region from low-cost, high-volume drone swarms.
Ukraine intercepts 80-90% of drones with cheap methods, but NATO still relies on unsustainable, expensive systems like Patriots and F-35s.
Russia and Iran are mass-producing disposable drones that can overwhelm NATO’s billion-dollar defenses, disrupting supply chains and terrorizing populations.
NATO’s slow adaptation to drone warfare risks leaving Europe vulnerable to future attacks, while defense contractors profit from outdated solutions.
When 19 alleged Russian drones violated Polish airspace this week, NATO scrambled its most advanced—and most expensive—weapons to stop them. Dutch F-35 fighter jets, Italian surveillance planes, and German Patriot missile systems were deployed in a high-stakes interception effort. The result? Only seven drones were shot down, despite each missile costing nearly 40 times more than the $11,000 wooden-and-foam UAVs they targeted.
The embarrassing failure has exposed a gaping hole in NATO’s air defenses, leaving Eastern Europe vulnerable to waves of low-cost, high-impact attacks that modern militaries simply aren’t equipped to handle.
The incident was a huge wake-up call. According to internal NATO calculations cited by the Financial Times in May, the alliance has only 5% of the air defenses needed to protect Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Scandinavia. That means if Russia or any other adversary decided to flood the skies with cheap, disposable drones, NATO’s billion-dollar war machines would be outmatched, outnumbered, and financially drained before the first real battle even begins.
A $400,000 missile vs. an $11,000 drone: The economics of war just got flipped
The math is staggering. Poland’s Kurier newspaper reported that NATO spent $400,000 per missile to down drones that cost Russia a fraction of that. Ulrike Franke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, cut to the heart of the problem: “What are we going to do, send F-16s and F-35s every time? It’s not sustainable. We need to better equip ourselves with anti-drone systems.” Yet despite years of war in Ukraine, where Kyiv intercepts 80-90% of incoming drones with far cheaper methods, NATO still hasn’t adapted.
The problem isn’t just cost; it’s capability. Five of the drones were reportedly on a direct path toward a NATO base before being intercepted. If Russia wanted to, it could overwhelm air defenses with sheer volume, forcing NATO to either burn through its expensive missile stockpile or let drones slip through.
NATO admits it’s unprepared… so why isn’t anyone fixing it?
During an emergency meeting between NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and EU ambassadors, officials openly acknowledged the bloc’s lack of readiness. “Rutte himself concluded that, and no one disagreed,” a diplomat familiar with the discussions told Politico. The admission comes as no surprise to military analysts. Ukraine has long warned that Patriot missiles and F-35s are useless against swarms of cheap drones, yet NATO keeps relying on them.
Some European defense firms are scrambling to catch up. Sweden’s Saab recently unveiled the Nimbrix, a low-cost anti-drone missile, while France is testing laser-based drone killers. But innovation moves slowly in NATO’s bureaucratic procurement system. “Startups have made a lot of progress in terms of what is possible. We haven’t necessarily bought [what they’re selling] in Europe yet,” Franke noted.
Meanwhile, Russia and Iran continue mass-producing drones that cost less than a used car but can shut down airports, disrupt supply chains, and terrorize populations.
NATO’s air defense crisis is a preview of future war
This isn’t just about Poland. Romania reported a similar drone incursion over the weekend, tracking a Russian Geran (Shahed-136) near its border with Ukraine. Romanian F-16s monitored but did not shoot it down, citing “collateral risks.” The message is clear: NATO’s airspace is porous, and its responses are reactive, not proactive.
Russia has denied deliberate attacks on Poland, calling Warsaw’s claims “evidence-free” and amplified by the “European party of war.” But whether the violations were intentional or not, the damage is done. NATO’s lack of preparedness has been exposed, and adversaries are taking notes. If the alliance can’t stop $11,000 drones, how will it fare against hypersonic missiles, cyberattacks, or full-scale electronic warfare?
Is NATO learning, or just spending?
The U.S. and EU have poured billions into Ukraine’s defense, yet NATO’s own airspace remains dangerously undefended. The bloc’s reliance on high-cost, low-quantity systems like the Patriot missile—each costing hundreds of millions—is unsustainable against an enemy that fights with disposable, mass-produced weapons. Ukraine has proven that cheap, adaptive solutions (like electronic jamming and interceptor drones) work better. So why isn’t NATO listening?
Perhaps because admitting failure is politically inconvenient. Or perhaps because defense contractors profit more from selling F-35s than drone jammers. Either way, Russia isn’t waiting… and neither are other adversaries watching from the sidelines.
END
ROBERT H:
Hal Turner Radio Show – Putin (Visibly) Ponders
He has the balls if pushed to do so.
Maybe he reflects on how dumb anyone is to force a reaction. Many tools in the toolbox before nukes. Missiles like Oreshnik with explosives are very similar to a nuke in destruction but do not leave a glow. Europe cannot stop an assault if triggered. And Russia does not want to deal with Europe at all. It has turned Eastward and it will be generation or more before any real engagement with Europe is possible if at all.
Hal Turner Radio Show – Russia State-Owned Television: France, Poland, US “Bringing the Moment Closer” Where Nuclear Weapons are Used
I would not want to be part of the Polish 40,000 troops if they go into Belarus. Being vaporized as an example of what can expanded is a horrible event but may wake people up.
Neocon illusions or 50,000 wounded soldiers coming to France from conflict lines is plain stupid. Between one tactical nuke and several Oreshnik strikes if Poland goes into will serve as a stark reminder of easy it is to set back an industrial economy. Poland risks being reduced to a 1940’s nation as all relevant ports and military installations are reduced to dust. Poland is well within range of many missiles from Iskanders to Zircons and has no defense against such missiles. And any strike will be forward masked by hundreds of cheap $11,000 drones which will be impossible to stop.
The lessons from Ukraine are last with Neocons whose lust for war overshadows all reason. These armchair generals and politicians who lust for such carnage are the real threat to populations everywhere. As it is the Americans who were invited to Belarusian soil to observe the Zapatista war games are clear indication that Poland’s military sending 40,000 soldiers to the border is a farce and expense poorly thought out unless of course the idea is to invade and increase the conflict. Complete madness all of this nonsense.
A profound mental health crisis lies at the heart of violence in America. Decarlos Brown Jr., the man who brutally stabbed to death the Ukrainian woman in Charlotte, North Carolina, was in a mental hospital earlier this year, and diagnosed with schizophrenia. But doctors wouldn’t have released him if they had viewed him as a danger to himself or others.
Similarly, the killers at Minneapolis’ Annunciation Catholic School and Nashville’s Covenant School both struggled with mental illness. Nearly all mass shooters also battled suicidal thoughts.
“We will never arrest our way out of issues such as homelessness and mental health,” Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles warned after the stabbing death. “Mental health disease is just that – a disease. It needs to be treated with the same compassion.” After the Minneapolis attack, House Speaker Mike Johnson underscored the issue: “The problem is the human heart. It’s mental health. There are things that we can do.”
Yet, despite the fact that more than half of mass public shooters over the past 25 years were already under the care of mental health professionals, not a single one was identified as a danger to themselves or others. An entire body of academic research now explores why mental health experts so often fail to predict these attacks.
When professionals cannot identify threats before tragedy strikes, society must ask: What is the backup plan?
The Minneapolis school murderer admitted: “I am severely depressed and have been suicidal for years.” After the Nashville school shooting, police concluded the killer was “highly depressed and highly suicidal throughout her life.” Yet even with regular psychiatric care, experts found no signs of homicidal or suicidal intent.
The 2022 Buffalo supermarket killer showed the same pattern. In June 2021, when asked about his future plans, he answered that he wanted to attend summer school, murder people there, and then commit suicide. Alarmed, his teacher sent him for evaluation by two mental health professionals. He told them it was a joke, and they let him go. Later he admitted: “I got out of it because I stuck with the story that I was getting out of class and I just stupidly wrote that down. It was not a joke, I wrote that down because that’s what I was planning to do.”
Many well-known mass killers saw psychiatrists before their attacks. Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, who murdered 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009, was himself an Army psychiatrist. Elliot Rodger (Santa Barbara) had received years of high-level counseling, but like the Buffalo killer, Rodger simply knew not to reveal his true intentions. The Army psychiatrist who last saw Ivan Lopez (the second Fort Hood shooter) concluded there was no “sign of likely violence, either to himself or to others.”
Aurora movie theater shooter James Holmes’ psychiatrist did warn University of Colorado officials about Holmes’ violent fantasies shortly before his attack, but even she dismissed the threat as insufficient for custody. And both a court-appointed psychologist and a hospital psychiatrist found Virginia Tech shooter Seung-Hui Cho posed no danger to himself or others.
Psychiatrists have every incentive to get these diagnoses right. Beyond professional pride and the desire to help, they face legal obligations to report threats. Families of victims have even sued psychiatrists for failing to recommend confinement. Despite this, psychiatrists consistently underestimate the danger.
The problem runs deep enough to generate a whole academic literature. Some experts suggest psychiatrists try to prove their fearlessness or become desensitized to risk. Additional training in unusual cases may help, but predicting such rare outcomes will always remain extremely difficult.
Hindsight makes the warning signs look obvious. Before the attack, even to experts, they rarely do. And while addressing mental illness, we should not stigmatize it. Mentally ill people are far more likely to become victims of violence than perpetrators. Only a tiny fraction ever commit murder.
No one wants dangerous individuals to access weapons. Are we going to disarm all mentally ill people, even though they themselves are at increased risk of violent crime? One woman we know saw her husband murdered in front of her by her stalker. She was very depressed but feared that in seeking mental help she would be denied the right to own a gun (which she needed to protect herself).
Another factor that makes these attacks difficult to stop is that they are planned long in advance, with six months being about the shortest. The Sandy Hook massacre was planned for over two and a half years, allowing the perpetrator plenty of time to obtain weapons.
The attack in Charlotte happened in a gun-free zone. The woman had no chance to defend herself when the attacker struck from behind, and no one on the train intervened. Bystanders may have hesitated out of fear – after all, the killer was a large man armed with a knife, even though knives are also banned on public transportation. If someone had carried a firearm, they could have stopped the assault, just as a Marine veteran in July did in a Michigan Walmart, where at gun point he forced a knife-wielding attacker to drop his weapon. Others who tried to stop the attacker without a gun were stabbed.
Our mental health system cannot serve as the last line of defense – too many mistakes slip through. If mental health professionals can’t reliably stop these attackers before they strike, we must ask: What’s the backup plan? Leaving targets unprotected isn’t the best option.
TV producer Ted Mann; singer Keith Nunnally; bassist Jessica Gilliam-Valls; hockey Hall of Famer Rick Kuraly, exec Bob Goodenow; hoopster Tiana Mangakahia (30); Bigfoot researcher Jeff Meldrum; & more
Ted Mann, Writer and Producer on ‘Deadwood’ and ‘NYPD Blue,’ Dies at 72
September 10, 2025
Ted Mann, the Emmy-winning television writer and producer who served in both capacities on “Deadwood” and “NYPD Blue,” died Sept. 4 in Los Angeles [CA]. He was 72. His daughter Elizabeth reported that he died after a battle with lungcancer. Born in Canada, Mann began his career as an editor for the National Lampoon in the 1970s.
Chicago house pioneer Keith Nunnally has passed away
September 9, 2025
Keith Nunnally, the iconic voice behind JM Silk’s ‘Jack Your Body’, has passed away. The news was shared on Sunday, September 7th, 2025, by his longtime collaborator Steve “Silk” Hurley, who noted that Nunnally had faced “several health challenges” over the pastyear. In 2024, Nunnally reunited with Hurley for his final performance at Chicago’s Pritzker Pavilion.
The death of double bassist Jessica Gilliam Valls was announced on 11 September 2025. Gilliam-Valls, 55, was found at home when she did not report to her teaching duties as director of orchestras at Dripping Springs Independent School District in Texas. She played regularly with the Austin and San Antonio symphonies and was previously principal bassist for the Orquestra da Rádio e Televisão Cultura in São Paulo, Brazil.
Researcher’s Note – Austin Symphony’s “vaccination” mandate: These protocols apply to all patrons, staff, and volunteers: Proof of a negative test or vaccination [sic] to be shown via digital device/physical card/ printed copy of test result along with a government issued I.D.
Miami Hall of Famer Rick Kuraly ‘83 passed away on September 4, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. He was 65 years old.
Researcher’s Note – It is with deep sadness that we announce the passing of Richard “Rick” Kuraly, who died peacefully on September 4, 2025, at the age of 65, in Columbus, Ohio, after a courageous battle with pancreatic cancer: Link
Former NHLPA executive director Goodenow passes at 72
September 13, 2025
Dearborn, Mich. – Former NHL Players’ Association executive director Bob Goodenow, who held the post for 13 years and led players through two long work stoppages, has died. The NHLPA said in a release that Goodenow died suddenly at age 72. A cause of death was not given.
Former Syracuse, international basketball pro Tiana Mangakahia dead following cancer diagnosis, family says
September 12, 2025
Tiana Mangakahia, who rose to stardom during her standout run with the Syracuse women’s basketball team, has died, her family said Friday. She was 30. After her collegiate career, Mangakahia played professional basketball abroad, with stints in Russia, France and Australia. Mangakahia’s family said the loss of their loved one left them heartbroken but remembered the former athlete’s “courage and grace.”
Internationally known ISU researcher Dr. Jeff Meldrum has passed away
September 11, 2025
POCATELLO, ID — One of Idaho State University’s most well-known researchers has passed away. Dr. Jeff Meldrum, a longtime professor of anatomy and anthropology at ISU, has died, according to a Thursday Facebook post from his family. The post stated: “It is with profound sadness that the Meldrum family shares that Dr. Meldrum has passed following a battle with braincancer. The illness was brief and he passed with his family at his side. He loved teaching and researching Bigfoot. But he was a husband and father first.” Meldrum, age 67, was known as perhaps the world’s leading expert on Bigfoot and wrote several books on the topic. He also appeared on numerous Bigfoot TV programs and documentaries.
Researcher’s Note – Idaho universities will follow vaccine [sic] mandate for employees, while also suing over it: Link
Miami Realtor Darin Tansey Dies Unexpectedly at Age 50
September 13, 2025
Miami [FL] real estate agent Darin Tansey has died. He was 50 years old. His death was confirmed on September 9, 2025. The cause of death remains private. Darin Tansey was a well-known figure in Miami’s luxury market. He worked for the firm Douglas Elliman.
Pekin, IL – Amanda Brie Scanlan, 46, of Clarksville, TN, passed awayat her home surrounded by her loving family on August 30, 2025. She earned her bachelor’s degree in nursing from Illinois Wesleyan University, where she discovered her calling in healthcare. Amanda dedicated her career to the field of dialysis, beginning as a nurse administering treatments, then moving into clinic management, becoming a nurse educator, and ultimately serving as a corporate nurse consultant for Dialysis Clinic, Inc. In Nashville.
Ellsworth AFB releases name of airman found deceased
September 13, 2025
RAPID CITY, S.D. – An Ellsworth Air Force Base airman who was found dead on September 2 has been identified. The deceased airman is Staff Sergeant Lonzell Bryant [25], an aerospace propulsion craftsman with the 28th Maintenance Squadron. Staff Sergeant Bryant had served with the squadron since January 2023. He was found dead in his off-base residence last Tuesday.
Researcher’s Note – Pentagon mandates US military service members receive Covid vaccine [sic] immediately: Link
Two public officials in Rock Island, Ill., “died suddenly”:
Former Rock Island alderman passes away
September 9, 2025
ROCK ISLAND, Ill. – The City of Rock Island shared the announcement to their Facebook page that former first ward alderman Ivory Clark [51] passed away. Clark served as alderman from 2013 to 2021. To remember Clark’s legacy, Rock Island Mayor Ashley Harris issued a proclamation declaring Sept. 8, 2025 as “Ivory Clark Remembrance Day.”
ROCK ISLAND, Ill. – A Rock Island County Board member passed away after a four-year battle with cancer Friday afternoon. Porter McNeil served as a member of the Rock Island County Board since 2021, he was active in helping to drive community economic efforts, as well as by volunteering with numerous local community organizations, those who knew McNeil said. Since getting word of McNeil’s passing, many have offered their condolences. McNeil worked as a campaign consultant on dozens of projects, including serving as a communications consultant to the Democratic Party of Illinois in 2024 and Illinois Communications Director for the Kerry-Edwards Presidential Campaign in 2004, according to a media release. McNeil was also key in the introduction of State Senator Barack Obama to the Quad Cities on October 2, 2002.
WAYNE CO., Ill. – In Wayne County, it was announced that Coroner Carrie Dagg [46] has died. She had been battling Glioblastoma, a form of braincancer. She underwent the first of several medical procedures and treatment for the disorder in July of last year. In Carrie’s diverse career, she served her community in a variety of roles. Most recently, she served as the Wayne County Coroner from 2020 to 2025, a position that showcased her dedication to public service and compassion for others. She was a beloved instructor at Frontier Community College, teaching GED, biology, physics, CPR, and first aid for over 20 years.
Peoria, IL – Elizabeth Ann Meaney, infant daughter of Matthew and Ashleigh (Manby) Meaney, passed away Sunday, September 7, 2025, at OSF St. Francis Medical Center in Peoria.
MICHAEL EVERY/OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Dr Strangecurve
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 11:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
As Christian Lawrence notes in ‘Under Pressure’, we expect a 25bps rate cut today. However, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, this is “the strangest Fed meeting in years” as “Consequential and contentious debates over the path ahead on rates are playing out under the glare of extraordinary political drama.” Indeed, to project dots, might future Fed meetings look like The Apprentice?
Or could it be the War Room from Dr Strangelove? To quote General Clemenceau as quoted in that movie, “War is too important to be left to the generals.” If so, when do we do monetary policy too? “Gentlemen, you can’t set rates in here! This is the FOMC Room!” That development would make the next Fed Chair ‘Dr Strangecurve’… which gold is of course pricing for.
Meanwhile, the Great Game continues to come into sharper focus in global War Rooms for those not staring too hard at lines on their Bloomberg screens.
The SCMP headline today is, ‘As the US retreats, can Xi Jinping’s new initiative shape the future world order?’ They add, “Analysts say the Global Governance Initiative reflects China’s ambitions to shape a multipolar world, but it needs more substance to avoid becoming an ‘empty shell’.”
That’s as ‘Greenland’s defenses are being bolstered against Russia and China, but Trump may be the real target’ (CNN) – I’m sure the Pentagon is terrified if so; the US warned Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jets; Israel presented Syria with a proposal for a new security agreement, which it hasn’t yet replied to; and Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu have refused to sign the defense treaties with Australia it had drawn up for them.
In short, the boundaries of emergent geopolitical blocs continue to be thrashed out in real time alongside those of the matching geoeconomics.
There, the SCMP claims a Trump China trip many hinge on Boeing and soybean deals and that “significant progress” has been made. Recall the Farce One Trade Deal which was an irrelevant thing in markets nearly six years ago? It’s unlikely to play out again, even as Trump extended TikTok’s deadline as US investors seem set to take 80% control of it while the actual algorithm stays with China.
Rather, the US is beginning the review of trade deal with Canada and Mexico – expect far stronger measures to ringfence US production in some key sectors and guidance on transshipment from outside the bloc. PM Carney reportedly told Anglo American to move its HQ to Canada for the Teck deal approval, which is Anglo American in the broadest sense. The UK has paused its push for a 0% US tariff on steel, which it makes very little of, as PM Starmer prefers to lock in a “permanent” 25% rate, but the Trump state visit is going to see US tech giants pledge billions for UK AI infrastructure. Moreover, the US government will start a multibillion mining initiative for critical minerals via the IDFC and hedge fund Orion.
The EU and Indonesia are set to agree a trade deal next week, which the Financial Times claims is to “seek to reduce reliance on the US.” Except both economies want to be net exporters, so won’t import much from the other, especially against public protests and political populism, and both signed trade deals with the US which don’t allow them to export anything to it they import in volume from China. As such, an EU-Indonesia trade deal is still a step towards a US-centric trading bloc.Just don’t expect many headlines saying so from Brussels or Jakarta.
The EU will reportedly adopt new sanctions against Israel today, which could involve removing trade privileges. As the EU runs hefty trade and services surpluses with Israel, that could mean it takes the larger economic blow should things escalate, while Israel is a key source of defence tech, such as Iron Dome, that a Europe trying to rearm rapidly may have to buy from the US, which will continue to work with Israel, or duplicate domestically at higher cost, and much more slowly.
In Australia, Khapra beetle, a threat to grains industry, was just discovered in imported nappy pants. Moreover, a top cyber expert says, “China could disable or detonate Aussie EVs.” He notes, “Take off the safety features of household batteries so that they overcharge. Take off those same safety features for electric vehicles. Just turn them off from the manufacturer so that those vehicles explode,” and argues the nature of war isn’t changing, but technology is. Of course that’s just paranoia or is only for Aussie EVs… right?
In markets, the recently fired US BLS chief has just called her dismissal a “dangerous step”, claiming she wanted to modernize federal statistics but the agency “got caught in DOGE’s crosshairs.” Well, now there are lots of crosshairs to get caught in, or so it seems. How many of them are the BLS taking into account? Indeed, while timely and accurate economic data are regarded as essential, in a contested geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, will it be in the best interests of governments to share them?
For those quoting Dr Strangelove’s “Of course, the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn’t you tell the world, eh?”, or shrieking “because markets!”, have you noticed what’s happened with some key data series in China in recent years, or in Russia since the war started? Logically, would you share targetable signs of economic weakness or strength via online data platforms that the other side can read and model as its leisure? Do you show other market players your books?
If not, what makes you sure you will see the real numbers going forwards as the West embraces more bloc-based realpolitik neo-mercantilism? More darkly, what makes you think you do now – “because markets”?
Over to you, Dr Strangecurve.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
WTI Extends Gains AFter Biggest Crude Build In 3 Months
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 10:37 AM
Oil prices leaked lower overnight after a three-day advance as traders assess the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision later Wednesday.
WTI was trading around $64.50 a barrel after gaining 3.2% in the previous three sessions. Ukraine attacked the Saratov refinery in its latest strike on Russian energy facilities – which have helped cut the OPEC+ member’s production to its lowest post-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs.
A big crude draw reported by API overnight will prompt some buying pressure if confirmed by the official EOA data.
API
Crude -3.42mm (-1.6mm exp)
Cushing
Gasoline -691k
Distillates +1.9mm
DOE
Crude -9.285mm – biggest build since June
Cushing -296k
Gasoline -2.347mm
Distillates +4.046mm
US crude stocks plunged over 9 million barrels last week (far greater than expected and the biggest draw since June). Gasoline inventories also saw a drawdown while distillates stocks rose for the 3rd straight week…
Source: Bloomberg
Even accounting for the 504k barrel addition to the SPR, total US commercial crude stocks saw their second biggest weekly decline in 15 months…
Source: Bloomberg
US crude production remains near record highs as the decline the rig count has finally stalled…
Source: Bloomberg
The recent gains haven’t been enough to push oil out of the $5 band it has been in for most of the past month-and-a-half, buffeted between geopolitical tensions and bearish fundamentals.
The accelerated return of OPEC+ supply has boosted predictions that a glut will form later in the year, while surging oil tanker earnings are offering a sign of higher output.
WTI has extended its gains from overnight weakness and is trading just in the green on the day…
Oil markets are focused on Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, as well as the wider risk of escalation following a drone incursion into Poland last week, said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Plc.
“We think a 25 basis-point Fed cut is priced in, but a 50 basis-point surprise would be further risk-on for markets,” Ashford said in reference to the imminent Fed decision.
Oil’s implied volatility was subdued after it fell to the lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as outright prices remain firmly stuck within the narrow range seen since early August.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Bank Of Canada Resumes Rate Cuts After 6 Month Pause
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 10:14 AM
The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected. This was the 8th consecutive rate cut since the easing cycle started one year ago, and took place after the bank paused following its last rate cut in March, 6 months ago.
Governor Tiff Macklem said that while “considerable uncertainty remains”, there was a “clear consensus” within the committee for the first rate cut since March, as slowing population gains and a weak labor market were a drag on consumption while the economy was weaker and there was “less upside risk to inflation.” The BoC head explained that the “Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward.” Additionally, he noted the upward pressure on CPI has diminished.
The BoC removed the language from the prior statement which said, “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”.
Some more highlights from the report:
Trade
Through the recent period of trade upheaval. Governing Council has been proceeding carefully, paying particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
Tariffs are having a profound effect on several key sectors, including the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new US tariffs on copper, and higher US tariffs on softwood lumber will spread the direct impacts further.
After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing.
Economy
The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.
There were some signs of resilience: consumption was stronger than expected in the second quarter and housing activity increased.
Canada’s GDP declined by about VA% in Q2, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity.
Exports fell by 27% in Q2, a sharp reversal from 01 when Cos. were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs.
Business investment also declined in Q2, while consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace.
In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.
Inflation:
Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated.
Ahead:
Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.
Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties.
GC will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships.
In summary: the BoC cut rates by 25bps as expected, with Governor Macklem noting a “clear consensus” to ease policy. The accompanying statement stated that the reduction was appropriate given the weaker economy and fewer upside risks to inflation. Additionally, the board judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. On the trade front, policymakers remain cautious over the risks stemming from US tariff actions. Moving forward. The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.
In immediate kneejerk response, the USDCAD rose modestly from 1.3760 to a session high of 1.3770 before retracing some of the move with much of the decision in line with expectations.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1843 DOWN 0.0028 PTS OR 28 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 146.49 UP 0.075 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3639 DOWN .0013 OR 13 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3758 UP 0.0019 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 14.48 PTS OR 0.37%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 469.88 PTS OR 1.78%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.62%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 469.88 PTS OR 1.78%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.48 PTS OR 0.37%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .62 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 111.89 PTS OR 0.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3663.60
silver:$41.57
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.40 UP 15 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.088% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.598% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.208 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.230 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.493 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6714 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1848 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 basis points
USA/Japan: 146.32 DOWN 0.103 OR YEN IS UP 55 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6250 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.425 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN .00023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.3762
Powell’s “Risk Management” Cut Wreaks Havoc Across Markets
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Markets chop to dovish Fed & SEP but hawkish Powell – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 04:07 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up
REAR VIEW: Fed cuts by 25bps, as expected, Miran votes for 50bps; Dovish SEPs, with median FFR seeing 50bps of cuts this year (exp. 25bps); Hawkish Fed Chair Powell in presser; BoC cuts rates by 25bps, as expected; UK Services CPI eases more than expected; EIA crude stocks draw more than anticipated; China’s CAC reportedly tells firms not to buy NVDA AI chips.
COMING UP: Data: Australian Jobs (Aug), Jobless Claims, New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). Events: BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB Announcement. Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Nagel, Schnabel; US President Trump & UK PM Starmer press conference. Supply: Spain, France, US. Earnings: FedEx, Lennar
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Two-way action was seen following the FOMC, SEPs and Chair Powell’s presser. A dovish reaction was seen after the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, which was accompanied by dovish SEPs, as 50bps of further rate reduction is now seen in 2025, against the prior, and expected, 25bps of additional cuts. Do note, it was a tight call as 10/19 saw 50bps (or more) of cuts, while the other 9 saw 25bps (or less). The Fed also adjusted its guidance to signal a clearer path of easing ahead. In reaction, the Dollar was sold while Equities and Treasuries saw upside; however, the moves had started to pare as participants awaited the Powell presser. In the press conference, he was notably more hawkish than the statement and SEPs implied, which saw these moves reversed. The Fed Chair said he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates, and that you could think of today’s cut as a risk management cut, and that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting approach. Elsewhere, the crude complex was choppy, but settled lower in thin newsflow despite bullish weekly EIA data. Sectors were mixed, as Financials and Consumer Staples sit atop of the pile, while Technology lagged and was weighed on by NVIDIA (-2.6%) weakness after China shunned NVDA chips from Chinese tech companies. As mentioned, the Dollar eventually gained to the detriment to G10 FX peers in the wake of Powell, with the CAD little moved on BoC earlier in the day. For the record, spot gold hit another ATH above USD 3.7k/oz in the wake of the FOMC statement, but fell back beneath the level as Powell spoke.
North America
FED: The Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25%, citing a shift in risk balance. Bowman and Waller joined consensus, calling for a 25bps reduction; new Governor Miran dissented, preferring a 50bps cut. Nine of 19 officials see two additional cuts in 2025, two see one cut, six see no more reductions. Adjusts guidance to state that “in considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…” from “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments”. In its statement, it also tweaked its labour market view, downgrading language (no longer ‘solid’, unemployment has edged up but ‘remains low’ and adds that ‘job gains have slowed’). This years unemployment rate forecast, PCE and core PCE were unchanged; for next year, unemployment was revised lower, PCE and core PCE were raised (the statement notes that inflation has moved up, and remains ‘elevated’).
FED CHAIR POWELL: Fed Chair Powell was more hawkish than the statement and dot plots implied. He reiterated the usual SEP language that this is not a set path of rates. He also mentioned the close split on the dot plot for this year (10 see two or more rate cuts, 9 see fewer than that), and to look at projections through the lens of probabilities. The Fed Chair also exclaimed that the Fed does not feel the need to move quickly on rates, and that you could think of today’s cut as a risk management cut. He also said that he does not think a quarter-point cut will have a great impact, and also said there was no widespread support for a 50bps rate cut. Looking ahead, he did not want to commit to a policy path but said decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, and they will be looking at the data. He highlighted that downside risks to the labour market have increased, while he noted that he sees inflation rising this year as goods prices rise from tariffs, but reiterated that he expects it to be a one-time rise. It is clear that the labour market concerns are the priority at the moment. Powell spoke several times of the downside risks to employment and noted it is the risks to the labour market that were the focus of today’s decision. He added it is clear the labour market breakeven rate has come down significantly, but could say the breakeven rate is between 0 and 50k. Powell noted that policy had been skewed towards inflation, but is now moving in the direction of a more neutral policy, which will be better for the labour market. On the balance sheet, he said they are still in an abundance of reserves, but he does not think it would have a macro effect.
HOUSING STARTS/BUILDING PERMITS: US building permits fell 3.7% in August to 1.312mln from 1.362mln, beneath the expected 1.37mln, continuing to indicate that the softness in housing starts will persist in the near-term. Within the dataset, single-family authorizations also dipped 2.2% to 856k. Housing starts plunged 8.5% to 1.307mln from 1.429mln, again shy of the forecasted 1.365mln, with single-family housing starts falling 7% to 890k. Looking ahead, Oxford Economics expects housing construction to improve in 2026 as the economy gets on firmer footing, the Fed lowers interest rates, and the benefits of the Republican budget bill kick in.
BOC: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bps to 2.50%, in line with expectations. This takes rates 25bps below the midpoint of the BoC’s neutral rate estimate from the July MPR. Governor Macklem said there was a clear consensus to cut rates, while the statement noted that the reduction was appropriate given the weaker economy and fewer upside risks to inflation (like the removal of most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US). It also felt a cut was appropriate to better balance the risks. On the labour market, the statement noted that job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. It also acknowledged the 7.1% unemployment rate in August, while wage growth has continued to ease. On inflation, it noted on a monthly basis that the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated, while a broader range of indicators continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2.5%. It removed its language from July that in the event of a weakening economy, and if inflation pressures are contained, “there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”. Instead, acknowledging how the “Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties.” It acknowledged that the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Looking ahead, ING suggests today’s cut shouldn’t be the last one, noting how, despite no forward guidance, the central bank is keeping options open, and the assessment on inflation, growth, and the labour market points to another Q4 cut. ING expects a cut in December, but can’t exclude October and even further easing beyond that, noting that the CAD should remain unattractive.
BOC GOVERNOR MACKLEM: Governor Macklem’s text largely echoed the statement, but he warned that Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new US tariffs on copper, and higher US tariffs on softwood lumber, will spread the direct impacts further. He also noted the BoC will continue to assess the risks, but look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information. He explained that three developments shifted the balance of risks since July: First, the labour market has softened further; second, recent data, albeit with some mixed signals, suggest upward pressures on underlying inflation have diminished; and third, with the removal of most retaliatory tariffs by Canada, there is less upside risk to future inflation. In the press conference, he said the inflation picture has not changed much since January. He also expressed that the BoC is ready to take further action if risks accelerate, but decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting. The Governor also noted how they are a long way from even contemplating QE, and that they are not expecting a recession, with growth of 1% expected in H1. Senior Deputy Governor Rogers, meanwhile, said they are not contemplating any change in the deposit rate now.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTES (Z5) SETTLED 13+ TICKS LOWER AT 113-04
T-Notes were ultimately lower and saw two-way action in wake of Fed, amid a dovish decision and a hawkish presser. At settlement, 2-year +3.5bps at 3.545%, 3-year +5.3bps at 3.528%, 5-year +6.3bps at 3.646%, 7-year +6.2bps at 3.832%, 10-year +5.0bps at 4.076%, 20-year +3.9bps at 4.647%, 30-year +3.3bps at 4.679%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.5bps at 3.273%, 3-year BEI +1.9bps at 2.728%, 5-year BEI +1.7bps at 2.466%, 10-year BEI +1.4bps at 2.368%, 30-year BEI +1.2bps at 2.261%.
THE DAY: T-Notes had been selling off into the Fed rate decision, with moves led by the front-end, indicating it was likely some profit taking after the recent upside as participants positioned for a dovish Fed amid a deteriorating labour market. In wake of the Federal Reserve rate decision, Treasuries saw upside and rose to session highs of 113-25+ from 113-10, amid the dovish details. The Fed cut by 25bps, as expected, new board member Miran dissented (in favour of a 50bps cut), while the median FFR SEP now sees 50bps of cuts in 2025, against the prior, and expected, 25bps of cuts forecasted. GDP growth was revised higher over ’25, ’26, and ’27, while the unemployment rate was revised lower for ’26 and ’27. While Treasuries soared after the dovish decision, this had started to pare ahead of the press conference, but lows were seen as Powell’s said he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates, could think of today’s cut as a risk management cut, and that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by meeting-approach. As such, Treasuries saw troughs off 113-02, and settled around these levels, but upside was seen post-settlement with Powell continuing to take focus on the downside risks in the labour market.
SUPPLY
T-Notes/Bonds
US Treasury to sell USD 19bln in 10yr TIPS on September 18th; all to settle Sept. 30th.
Bills:
US to sell USD 85bln in 8-week bills and USD 100bln in 4-week bills on September 18th; all to settle September 23rd.
US sold USD 85bln of 6-wk bills at a high rate of 4.040%, B/C 2.82x.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 23bps (prev. 21bps), Dec 44bps (prev. 43bps), January 58bps (prev. 57bps). (Prior’s have been adjusted for today’s 25bps rate cut)
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 14bln (prev. 19bln) across 14 counterparties (prev. 16).
EFFR at 4.33% (prev. 4.33%), volumes at USD 98bln (prev. 91bln) on September 16th.
SOFR at 4.39% (prev. 4.51%), volumes at USD (prev. 2.830tln) on September 16th
CRUDE
WTI (V5) SETTLED USD 0.47 LOWER AT 64.05/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 0.52 LOWER AT USD 67.95/BBL
The crude complex was choppy, albeit within thin ranges amid light newsflow on Wednesday as participants awaited the pivotal FOMC throughout the day. Despite saying that, in wake of the rate decision whereby the Fed cut by 25bps, as expected, but in a dovish decision, benchmarks saw little move. Prior to the Fed, WTI and Brent saw two-way action with no clear headline driver. In the weekly EIA data, crude saw a much larger than anticipated draw, gasoline had a surprise draw, while distillates saw a chunky build. Overall, crude production fell 13k W/W to 13.482mln. Regarding positioning, SocGen notes that hedge funds have decreased their bullish position this week on WTI to the lowest level on record (since disaggregated data was first released in 2006), and the level coincides with the OPEC+ decision to boost production, combined with a consensual view that the market will fall into a hefty surplus through 2026. For the record, WTI and Brent traded between USD 63.83-64.67/bbl and 67.79-68.59/bbl, respectively.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.10% at 6,600, NDX -0.21% at 24,224, DJI +0.57% at 46,018, RUT +0.18% at 2,407
SECTORS: Technology -0.70%, Industrials -0.45%, Consumer Discretionary -0.31%, Real Estate -0.06%, Communication Services -0.06%, Health +0.24%, Energy +0.28%, Utilities +0.29%, Materials +0.36%, Consumer Staples +0.90%, Financials +0.96%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.00% at 5,372, Dax 40 +0.08% at 23,347, FTSE 100 +0.14% at 9,208, CAC 40 -0.40% at 7,787, FTSE MIB -1.29% at 41,955, IBEX 35 -0.24% at 15,127, PSI -0.10% at 7,730, SMI -0.17% at 11,999, AEX +0.36% at 915.
STOCK SPECIFICS
NVIDIA (NVDA): China reportedly told Cos., such as BABA & ByteDance, to terminate their testing & orders of RTX Pro 6000D.
Apple (AAPL): iPhone sales in China -6% Y/Y in the July-August period; Chinese smartphone sales -2% Y/Y over the same period.
Workday (WDAY): Activist Investor Elliott has taken a stake >USD 2bln.
JPMorgan (JPM): Raised quarterly dividend to USD 1.50/shr (prev. 1.40).
Lyft (LYFT): Partnered with Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo to expand autonomous mobility to Nashville in 2026; Uber (UBER) was weighed by the news.
Astrazeneca (AZN): Asthma drug missed primary endpoint.
General Mills (GIS): EPS and revenue topped expectations, but FY26 adj. EPS guidance was maintained, where a decline of 10-15% is seen.
Roivant (ROIV): Roivant and Priovant say skin drug brepocitinib succeeded in trial, STAT News reports.
New Fortress Energy (NFE): Finalised a 7yr deal worth $4bln to supply LNG to Puerto Rico.
Paramount Group (PGRE): Rithm Capital (RITM) to acquire PGRE for USD 1.6bln, namely, USD 6.60/shr.
Eli Lilly (LLY): Announced GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, showed superiority over Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) in a diabetes study.
Kroger (KR): Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Roth Capital.
Zillow Group (ZG): Upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Bernstein.
Reddit (RDDT): Reportedly in talks to strike next AI content pact with Google (GOOGL), according to Bloomberg.
Google (GOOGL) and PayPal (PYPL) forget multiyear partnership to revolutionise commerce; PYPL to process card payments for Google products.
FX
The Dollar heads into APAC broadly firmer which comes after the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25bps, as expected, SEP’s and Powell presser. Recapping, USD was initially sold as the decision was accompanied by an unexpected dovish turn in the Fed’s median FFR view by year-end, namely, the Fed now seeing two further cuts against expectations for just one more. Despite some expecting Waller and Bowman to remain dovish outliers, they joined the consensus for 25bps, while newcomer Miran opted for 50bps, an unsurprising move. The statement highlighted increased risks towards the labour market, omitting the “solid” description of the labour market and removed the “extend and timing” language used to describe extra considerations the Fed has when taking into account additional adjustments, a signal they are more confident of further easing. Thereafter, Chair Powell leaned hawkish in the press conference, paving the way for a reversal in US yields to the upside, and as such, a USD rebound. Powell feels they don’t need to move quickly on rates, arguing for further data needed to ensure that higher inflation from tariffs is a one-time rise. There was also a theme of uncertainty/caution voiced by the Chair. Powell called the cut a risk management cut amid the labour market concerns, although he doesn’t know if it will make a huge difference. DXY now sits in the upper end of its daily range of 96.224-96.994.
G10 FX was largely weaker against the dollar on a hawkish Powell. Sterling outperformed modestly after a largely in-line CPI report for August. Headline CPI matched expectations; meanwhile, Services CPI Y/Y eased slightly more than expected. Expectations for BoE easing by year-end grew slightly, but ultimately, the first clear case for the next cut remains in March/April 2026. Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks “inflation will peak at 4.0% in September, in line with the MPC’s forecast, helping to keep rate setters on hold in November”.
CAD finished the day lower on the aforementioned USD strength. Prior to FOMC, the BoC cut rates by 25bps to 2.5% as expected, citing a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation. The GC judged that the decision would better balance risks. Governor Macklem, in the press conference, said the inflation picture has not changed much since January; they are a long way from considering Q3, not expecting a recession, but growth of ~ 1% in H2. USD/CAD was largely muted in response to the BoC, with direction dominated by the USD/Fed. As it stands, USD/CAD sits at ~ 1.3770 from earlier lows of 1.3727, with BoC pricing forecasting ~18bps of further easing by year end.
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY 25 BASIS POINT CUT
Watch Live: Will Fed Chair Powell Push Back Against The Dovish Dots?
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 02:25 PM
Having delivered the 25bps rate-cut that President Trump had been hoping for, Fed Chair Powell is now facing the gauntlet of a press conference with one governor who has been fired (or not) and another member fresh from The White House.
Will Powell push back against the relatively dovish tone?
Aside from the drama, the big question is – will Powell offer a more dovish outlook (to match the market’s expectation and the new dot plot) or will he course-correct once again (and crush the market’s dovish dreams).
As a reminder, Chair Powell’s tone shifted between the July FOMC and Jackson Hole and given the demise of the labor market since then, we see no reason for his tone to shift back.
With the conflict between inflation risks on the upside and employment risks on the downside, we expect Chair Powell to reinforce that policy is not on a preset course and is data dependent.
But we also expect he will point to a new course, of gradual, cautious, data-dependent policy easing.
So, to clarify:
The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.
Good luck explaining that Jay!
Watch Fed Chair Powell thread the needle live here (due to start at 1430ET):
DETAILS
Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps; Powell ‘Bends The Knee’, Signals Dovish Path Ahead
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Tl;dr: Nine months after it last adjusted rates, The Fed finally bent the knee this afternoon and cut rates by 25bps (as fully priced in by the market).
Only once since it started publishing its target rate in the 1970s had The Fed waited longer. That was 2001-2002 when, unlike now, it was a bear-market low, consumer spending was weak, and inflation was below target.
The Dot-Plot suggests The Fed members are also shifting in a dovish direction (narrowing the gap with the market) with 50bps more now set for 2025.
There was only one dissenter, newly appointed Stephen Miran who wanted a 50bps cut.
So, to clarify: The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.
WTF!!
* * *
Since The Fed’s last meeting (July 30th), a great deal of catalyzing events have occurred – from massive downward revisions to the so-called ‘strong’ labor market to a continued lack of (hyper) inflationary pressure from tariffs; and from a decline in geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty offset by a much-decried by MSM rise in fears over Fed ‘independence’.
The economic data has pumped and dumped in the ensuing weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
But we do note that ‘inflation’ has surprised to the upside since the last FOMC (while the labor market has dramatically surprised to the downside)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold has been a dramatic outperformer during the interim period with some weakness in the dollar and crude oil prices (Israel-Iran tensions eased) plunging most. Bonds and stocks are up since the last FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds dipped after the last FOMC meeting only to surge on two weak payrolls prints, pricing in fully a 25bps today (and high likelihood of another cut in each of the remaining FOMC meetings this year)…
Source: Bloomberg
Expectations for cuts in 2025 have risen notably since the last FOMC meeting (from ~2 cuts to ~3 cuts) while 2026 expectations are only very modestly more dovish)…
Source: Bloomberg
And before we get the headlines, bear in mind that the market is dramatically more dovish than the current (old) dots from The Fed. Today we get a refresh that will likely see the median dots decline (dovishly)…
Source: Bloomberg
As we noted earlier, today’s meeting has the potential to be explosive with multiple dissents (both hawkish and dovish).
So What Happened…?
RATES:
Cuts key overnight interest rate by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% range
Fed projections show additional 50bps of cuts by year end, another 25 bps of cuts in each of the next two years
Fed says it is attentive to both sides of dual mandate
VOTE SPLIT:
New governor Miran dissented on policy decision, favoring 50bps cut
LABOUR MARKET:
Says downside risks to employment have risen
Job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up but remains low
INFLATION:
Inflation has moved up and remains ‘somewhat elevated’
ECONOMY:
Economic growth moderated over first half of this year BALANCE SHEET:
Fed maintains current pace of balance sheet drawdown
SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS:
GDP forecasts raised for 2025, 2026 and 2027
Unemployment rate forecast for 2025 unch, lowered for 2026 and 2027
PCE forecast for 2025 unch, raised for 2026, unch for 2027
Core PCE forecast for 2025 unch, raised for 2026 and unch for 2027
The new projections show inflation finally returning to the 2% target in 2028. That would mark seven straight years of inflation surpassing the target!
Still, that’s less than the nine straight years of under-shooting from 2012 through 2020.
DOTS:
The dots for 2025 were massively shifted lower with one member calling for 5 cuts in 2025. 7 of the 19 members see no more rate-cuts this year…
9 of 19 see 2 more cuts
2 of 19 see 1 more cuts
6 of 19 see no more cuts
1 sees 1 rate hike, and drumroll…
1 sees 5 cuts (this is Stephen Miran)
Fed Funds rate forecast cut for 2025 from 3.9% to 3.6% or another 2 rate cuts.
So the median forecast for next year pencils in just one more rate cut, after the two further moves this year. Not a lot there. And for 2026 expects another rate cut to 3.4% and then another cut in 2027 to 3.1%
That would mean 125 basis points of cutting from September 2025 until the end of 2027. That’s way, way short of the 300 basis points Trump has wanted for, like, now.
So, to clarify:
The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.
WTF!
Read the full redline below:
USA DATA RELEASES
USA housing starts etc plunge even with mortgage rates falling. USA economy I believe is now deflating
(zerohedge)
US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunged In August, But…
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 08:51 AM
With homebuilder sentiment hovering near COVID lockdown lows (at 13-year lows), it is perhaps not surprising that this morning’s Housing Starts and Building Permits data is such a shitshow.
US Housing Starts tumbled 8.5% MoM (worse than the 4.4% MoM decline expected)
US Building Permits plunged 3.7% MoM (worse than the 0.6% MoM rise expected)
That is the 5th straight month of MoM declines for the more forward-looking permits print.
The MoM declines dragged the SAARs down to post-COVID-lockdown lows…
Across the US, housing starts in the South, the nation’s biggest homebuilding region, fell 21% to the lowest in nearly a year.
Starts also fell in the Midwest, but they rose in the West and Northeast.
Starts & Permits plunged across the board (for both single-family and multi-family units)
Housing starts:
Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May
Housing permits:
Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024
However, on the bright side, mortgage rates have been tumbling (near three year lows)…
…and mortgage applications soared almost 30% week-over-week.
Will the rate-cuts expected today (and for the rest of the year) provide the affordability lift that so many hope for?
Bear in mind there is still a vast gap between the current mortgage rates and the effective average rates of homeowners across the nation…
Last month, the number of single-family homes under construction extended its multi-year decline, falling to an annual pace of 611,000, the lowest since early 2021.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
The Fed’s Roadmap Matters More Than the Cut
by BentPine Capital
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 8:01
The Fed’s Roadmap Matters More Than the Cut
Stephen Miran’s board appointment favors rate cuts.
Recent hiring data points to a rapidly weakening labor market.
Bowman, Miran, and Waller are likely to support more aggressive easing.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook is about to grow more dovish…
Today brings a much-anticipated catalyst for investors across the globe. The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest monetary policy decision. Wall Street expects a 25 basis point rate cut, the first since December. It will bring the federal funds target to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%.
But let’s be clear: the cut itself isn’t the story. It’s already priced in. What matters most is the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy moving forward. As you can see from the table above, Wall Street expects the fed funds target range to drop by a total of 75 basis points to a range of 3.25% to 3.50% by December.
As a result, the most anticipated release tomorrow will be the Summary of Economic Projections (“SEP”) from policymakers. It will show where they believe the path of interest rates is headed over the next few years. The details will indicate the pace of policy easing by year-end and whether Wall Street’s current assumptions are correct.
Based on recent dynamics, it appears the Fed’s outlook should grow more dovish when forward guidance is released. I wouldn’t be surprised if the data endorses a total of three rate cuts by the end of 2025. That should underpin the outlook for economic growth and a steady rally in the S&P 500 Index.
But don’t take my word for it—let’s look at what the data’s telling us…
The Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) meets eight times a year to set rates. It’s made up of seven board members and five rotating regional bank presidents—twelve voting members in total. But once a quarter, all nineteen officials (including non-voting district presidents) submit their forecasts for key economic indicators. These are aggregated and released in the SEP.
Here’s what they projected at the June meeting…
Now compare that to where we are: GDP is tracking close to 1.4%, unemployment sits at 4.3%, PCE inflation is 2.6%, and core PCE is 2.9%. The fed funds rate is currently 4.4%. So, most of the projections aren’t far off, but the rate path is likely to shift lower for two key reasons: weakening employment and a more dovish Fed board.
Let’s start with the labor market.
Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) reported just 22,000 new jobs in August. June’s numbers were revised from a gain of 14,000 to a contraction of 13,000. That marked the first net job loss since December 2020. July’s report also came with downward revisions to May and June totaling 258,000 jobs.
And then came the kicker: the 2025 benchmark revision released last week. The BLS now expects employment gains between April 2024 and March 2025 to be revised lower by 911,000. That’s a flashing red light for policymakers worried about growth.
Several Fed officials have already voiced concern that rates have stayed too high for too long. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Boston’s Susan Collins, San Francisco’s Mary Daly, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and New York’s John Williams, among others, have expressed this view. Board Members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman expressed the same concern when they dissented at the July policy meeting in favor of a rate cut. Chairman Jerome Powell himself recently said it may soon be time to ease.
And now there’s a new voice joining the dovish camp: Stephen Miran. He was just confirmed to fill a board vacancy. He’s been vocal about the need for aggressive rate cuts. He’s expected to dissent in favor of a 50-basis-point reduction today.
He won’t be alone. Waller and Bowman have both said they’d support a larger cut if the employment picture worsened since July. Based on the data, it has. As a result, we should expect a growing chorus of dissenters pushing for faster easing.
At least seven of the twelve voting members now appear willing to tolerate a temporary rise in inflation to protect the labor market. Powell has warned that waiting too long could force the Fed to cut more aggressively later. So, a rate cut today is likely a foregone conclusion.
But again, the real story is the outlook.
Since June, about half of the board and regional presidents have shifted more dovish. Bowman, Miran, and Waller all favor cutting to neutral sooner rather than later. Those shifts should pull the 2025 median rate projection down from 3.9% to 3.6%. And if they endorse two to three cuts next year, the median path for 2026 and 2027 could also move lower. Both outcomes would align with Wall Street’s current forecast for rates to drop to roughly 2.9% by next September.
As I said at the top, the rate cut itself isn’t the story. It’s the Fed’s evolving stance that will drive market expectations. If the SEP confirms a lower median path for rates, it signals an improved liquidity outlook. That makes it cheaper for households and businesses to borrow, invest, and spend. That should underpin economic growth, stabilize employment, and support a steady rally in the S&P 500.
If you’d like to receive more commentary like this to your inbox daily or see how I’d invest for any type of market, click here.
END
Tyler Robinson Charged In Kirk Assassination, Urged Trans Boyfriend to “Stay Silent”
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Utah prosecutors filed seven charges on Tuesday against 22-year-old Tyler Robinson in the political assassination of conservative thought leader Charlie Kirk nearly one week ago. They’re seeking the death penalty.
The charges include aggravated murder, discharge of a firearm, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering. Prosecutors said Robinson’s DNA was found on the rifle’s trigger.
Here are the seven charges:
Count 1: Aggravated murder (capital offense)
Count 2: Felony reckless discharge of a firearm causing bodily injury
Count 3: Felony obstruction of justice for hiding the firearm
Count 4: Felony obstruction of justice for discarding the clothing he wore during the shooting
Count 5: Witness tampering for asking roommate to DELETE incriminating messages
Count 6: Witness tampering for demanding the trans roommate stay silent, and NOT speak to the police
Count 7: Commission of a violent offense in the presence of a child
Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray told reporters earlier that he intends to seek the death penalty against Robinson. This means Robinson will be held without bail.
“I do not take this decision lightly, and it is a decision I have made independently as county attorney based solely on the available evidence and circumstances and nature of the crime,” Gray said.
“Robinson’s mother expressed concern to her husband that the suspect shooter looked like Robinson,” and Robinson’s father agreed, Gray said.
DISGUSTING: ABC’s Matt Gutman says he’s not sure “if we have seen an alleged murder with such specific text messages” that were “very touching, in a way, that I think many of us didn’t expect — a very intimate portrait into this relationship between the suspect’s roommate and the… pic.twitter.com/ulPcxoOwM3
According to Gray, Robinson’s mother told federal agents that “over the last year or so, her son had become more political and had started leaning more to the left, becoming more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented.”
Robinson’s mother also told police that he “began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders,” the prosecutor said.
Benny Johnson released the Utah County DA’s full text message exchange between Robinson and his transgender boyfriend/roommate after committing the assassination:
Earlier, federal agents expanded their investigation to include whether pro-trans online groups, “furries” with sexualized animal obsessions, and others tied to Robinson had advance knowledge of the political assassination plot. These groups include communities on the online gaming platform Steam, as well as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.
Musician and outspoken conservative Kid Rock has labelled the mainstream media as “public enemy number one” in the aftermath of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s shocking murder…
In an interview with Fox News’ Jesse Watters, Rock argued that inflammatory rhetoric from outlets like The New York Times and other “nut houses” has fueled dangerous narratives.
“I’ve said it and I’ll say it again… The mainstream media is the fricking public enemy number one right now,” he declared, further noting that repeated labels of “racist” and “Nazi” directed at conservatives like himself and Kirk incite unstable individuals to violence.
Drawing from personal experience, Rock noted, “They’ve called me a racist Nazi for years now… Go look up the few facts about my life.”
He described how such echoes build up, influencing “nut house kids” who spend their time “playing video games, watching these occult movies that are all over our streaming services” instead of engaging in productive activities.
These individuals, he said, end up thinking, “I’m going to go kill a Nazi, I’ma go kill a racist,” leading to tragic outcomes like Kirk’s death.
Rock, a longtime Trump supporter, warned that the media is “incentivizing these loner kids to take shots so that they can be heroes.”
He criticized the cycle where, after violence, calls for unity quickly dissolve into more divisive language, with conservatives again branded as “fascists.”
Shifting to a broader message, Rock emphasized restraint but issued a stark warning to those celebrating Kirk’s death or vandalizing vigils: “You’re gonna keep it up, you’re gonna run into the wrong people.”
“It’s not gonna be pretty. It’s gonna be very ugly, terrible,” he further urged.
The musician stressed the need for dialogue, saying, “We gotta start listening to each other and respect one another,” while acknowledging extremists exist on both sides but pointing to the left’s “echo chamber” as particularly problematic.
Rock highlighted the need for de-escalation while holding the media accountable for escalating rhetoric.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
.END
FROM ROBERT H:
Peter Schweizer on X: “Mainstream outlets now reporting: Alleged assassin Tyler Robinson did not act in a vacuum. There may even be DOZENS (!) with advanced knowledge of his sinister plans. Marxist infiltration…transgender ideology….trips to Cuba…money from CCP Operatives… This investigation is https://t.co/0O3DRLDrU1″ / X
FBI ‘Arctic Frost’ probe targeted nearly 100 GOP groups — including Charlie Kirk’s TPUSA: docshttps://trib.al/tVOoGzH
Senator Chuck Grassley just announced that a FBI whistleblower revealed to him an FBI project called “Artic Frost” that targeted groups like Charlie Kirks TPUSA! “In total, 92 Republican targets, including Republican groups and Republican linked individuals were placed under investigative scope of Arctic Frost.” “On that political list was one of Charlie Kirk‘s groups, Turning Point USA. In other words, Arctic Frost wasn‘t just a case to politically investigate Trump.” “It was the vehicle by which partisan FBI agents and Department of Justice prosecutors could achieve their partisan ends and improperly investigate the entire Republican political apparatus.” “So, today Senator Johnson and I are making these records public for the entire country to see. I hope a lot of people are interested in seeing what government can do when various agencies have a political agenda.” https://x.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1967940081668264137
Aug Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, 0.2% m/m expected, July revised to 0.6% from 0.5% Ex-Autos 0.7%, 0.4% exp, July revised to 0.4% from 0.3% Ex-Autos & Gas 0.7%, 0.4% exp, July revised to 0.3% from 0.2% NY Fed Services Business Activity (Sept) -19.4, -5.8 exp, -11.7 prior Aug Import Price Index +0.3% m/.m & 0.0% y/y, -0.2% m/.m & 0.0% y/y exp, July -0.6% m/m from 0.2 Ex-Petro 0.2% m/m, 0.1% exp; Export Price Index 0.3% m/m & 3.4% y/y, 0.1% & 2.5% exp Aug Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, -0.1% exp, July revised to -0.4% from -0.1% Mfg. Production 0.2% m/m, -0.2% exp, July -0.1% from 0.0%, Cap Utilization 77.4% as exp & prior July Business Inventories 0.2% m/m as expected and prior Sept NAHB Housing Market Index 32, 33 expected and prior
ESZs opened modestly higher at 18:00 ET, quickly fell to a modest loss the produced a bottom of 6671.50 at 18:54 ET. ESZs then rallied, with only two modest interruptions, to a daily high of 6696.75 at 4:51, 4:47 and 5:07 ET. Seeing a triple top, traders dumped. ESZs then stair stepped lower until the declined accelerated after the NYSE opening. ESZs hit a daily low of 6661.25 at 11:41 ET.
The post-Euro close move, a rally, eventually created a double top of 6676.25 at 14:52 ET and15:06 ET. ESZs then fell to 665.75 at 15:37 ET. The illegal but regular late manipulation forced ESZs to 6675.75 at 15:50 ET. Trader liquidation appeared; ESZs fell to 6665.75 at 16:00 ET.
We opined in yesterday’s missive: Normally there is a strong rally into Fed Day and Weird Wednesday of Expiration Week. Traders, especially pros, get long in anticipation of retail trader and ‘dump money’ money buying on Fed Day (Wednesday) after the FOMC Communique release or during the Fed Chair’s press conference. If pros don’t aggressively buy today, it would be a very strong indication that the ‘smart money’ is extremely concerned that there will be overwhelming interest in ‘selling the news’ of the long-awaited 25bp Fed rate cut…
Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied 72.75 on the rotation out of Fangs that occurs periodically.
Negative aspects of previous session US equity indices, except the DJTA, declined when they normally rally for Fed Day. Gold rallied modestly. The dollar got hammered on Fed rate cut fear.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big will the US stock bubble inflate this week on Fed rate cut and AI euphoria?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour:Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6611.30 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6626.99; 6600.11
AP: Suspect left note under keyboard saying he planned to kill Charlie Kirk and confessed after shooting, documents show
The Utah DA charged 22-year-old Tyler Robinson with seven counts, including the aggravated murder of Charlie Kirk. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty.
@AutismCapital: The Utah DA shares the Discord messages sent by Tyler Robinson to his roommate. ROBINSON: “Why did I do it?” ROOMMATE: “Yeah” ROBINSON: “I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out. If I’m able to grab my rifle, I’ll have left no evidence. Going to attempt to retrieve it again. Hopefully they have moved on. I haven’t seen anything about them finding it.” ROOMMATE: “How long have you been planning this?” ROBINSON: “A bit over a week I believe. I can get close to it but there’s a squad car right by it. I think they already swept that spot but I don’t want to chance it. I’m wishing I had circled back and grabbed it as soon as I got to my vehicle. I’m worried what my old man would do if I didn’t bring back grandpa’s rifle. Idk if it has a serial number but it wouldn’t trace to me. I worry about prints, I had to leave it in a bush when I changed outfits. Didn’t have the time or ability to bring it with. I might have to abandon it and hope they don’t find prints.” https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1968027329197904252 https://x.com/Brooketaylortv/status/1968027420566450472/photo/1 (Full text)
ABC News reporter Matt Gutman blasted for calling texts from Charlie Kirk assassination suspect Tyler Robinson ‘very touching’ – “All it takes is transgenderism being involved, and suddenly the mainstream press thinks the shooter and his boyfriend are a touching love story. Insane,” Red State writer Bonchie posted…. https://trib.al/vfx68Bn
@Breaking911: UTAH DA: “Robinson had become more political & had started to lean more to the left, becoming more pro-gay & trans rights oriented.” “Robinson began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders.” https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1968023917068771648
Today is Fed Day; Weird Wednesday; and settlement for September VIX options. Stocks normally rally into the FOMC Communiqué release and often into the ensuing Fed Chair press conference.
As we have warned, the risk is that the most heralded and awaited Fed cut in modern history has beaucoup traders long and waiting to unload into the expected rally. So, barring an unexpected 50bp rate cut, stocks are vulnerable to ‘selling the news.’
The bond market is especially vulnerable to a significant decline after a Fed rate cut, especially with inflation remaining near 3%.
ESUs are +4.50; NQUs are +16.25; AU is +7.10 and USZs are -1/32 at 20:17 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Aug Housing Starts 1.365m, Permits 1.37m; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, 25bp rate cut expected; Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6399; 100-day MA: 6152; 150-day MA: 5987; 200-day MA: 5991 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,855; 100-day MA: 43,568; 150-day MA: 42,994; 200-day MA: 43,191 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6606.79 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6307.71 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6504.30 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6585.01 triggers a sell signal
Trump announces $15 billion lawsuit against The New York Times for defamation, libel Trump accuses NY Times of being illicit ‘mouthpiece’ for Democrats “Today, I have the Great Honor of bringing a $15 Billion Dollar Defamation and Libel Lawsuit against The New York Times, one of the worst and most degenerate newspapers in the History of our Country,becoming a virtual ‘mouthpiece’ for the Radical Left Democrat Party. I view it as the single largest illegal Campaign contribution, EVER,” he wrote. “Their Endorsement of Kamala Harris was actually put dead center on the front page of The New York Times, something heretofore UNHEARD OF!” “I am PROUD to hold this once respected ‘rag’ responsible, as we are doing with the Fake News Networks such as our successful litigation against George Slopadopoulos/ABC/Disney, and 60 Minutes/CBS/Paramount, who knew that they were falsely ‘smearing’ me through a highly sophisticated system of document and visual alteration, which was, in effect, a malicious form of defamation, and thus, settled for record amounts. They practiced this longterm INTENT and pattern of abuse, which is both unacceptable and illegal. The New York Times has been allowed to freely lie, smear, and defame me for far too long, and that stops, NOW! The suit is being brought in the Great State of Florida… https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-announces-15-billion-lawsuit-against-the-new-york-times-defamation-libel
@AFpost: The Kirk family and Turning Point USA are preparing defamation lawsuits against media outlets and figures who smeared Charlie Kirk after his assassination. TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet said on a podcast with Scott Jennings, “We are seeing it all and logging it all. We have good lawyers.”
@TheAgeofShoddy: The issue is not that what people are doing is “hate speech,” a meaningless and undefinable term with no history or intellectual or moral weight. The issue is that people are endorsing and advocating for murder. Repeat that over and over: endorsing and advocating for murder.
@GuntherEagleman: According to Kash, there are “MANY MORE THAN 20” people from Discord who are now under investigation. GOP Sen. Hawley: “I see that thread had as many as 20 additional users. It sounds like you are trying to run down that to see who else may have been active.” Mr. Patel: “It is A LOT more than that.” Sen. Hawley: “More than 20?” Mr. Patel: “YES.” Sen. Hawley: “And you‘re running all of that?” “Mr. Patel: “Yes, sir.” https://x.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1967964208751853918
New FBI files released by Sen. Chuck Grassley show more Biden bribery allegations The informants alleged that Zlochevsky sought to bribe then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko with $100 million to stop an “Interpol investigation” into him in exchange for “shares and guaranteed profits from gas sales,” including from Burisma, which Joe and Hunter Biden had “money invested into” via a Latvian “shell company.”… The other FD-1023 form taken from a June 5, 2017, interview via Skype with an informant states: “JOSEPH BIDEN would ‘take care’ of BURISMA HOLDING issues around the World and POROSHENKO would protect ZLOCHEVSKY.”…https://trib.al/Od0VDYt
The term ‘hate speech’ is ambiguous and subjective. ‘Calls for violence’ is more appropriate and precise.
@AGPamBondi: “If you want to be a hateful person and simply say hateful things that is your right to do so. If you want to be a violent person, we will stop you.”
Attorney General Pamela Bondi @AGPamBondi: Hate speech that crosses the line into threats of violence is NOT protected by the First Amendment. It’s a crime. For far too long, we’ve watched the radical left normalize threats, call for assassinations, and cheer on political violence. That era is over. Under 18 U.S.C. § 875(c), it is a federal crime to transmit “any communication containing any threat to kidnap any person or any threat to injure the person of another.” Likewise, 18 U.S.C. § 876 and 18 U.S.C. § 115 make it a felony to threaten public officials, members of Congress, or their families. You cannot call for someone’s murder. You cannot swat a Member of Congress. You cannot dox a conservative family and think it will be brushed off as “free speech.” These acts are punishable crimes, and every single threat will be met with the full force of the law. Free speech protects ideas, debate, even dissent but it does NOT and will NEVER protect violence. It is clear this violent rhetoric is designed to silence others from voicing conservative ideals…
Luigi Mangione top terrorism charges thrown out by judge in state case in massive blow to DA Judge Gregory Carro tossed charges of murder in the first degree as an act of terrorism and murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism against the 27-year-old Ivy League grad. The judge did keep alive Mangione’s other second-degree murder charge for allegedly executing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in cold blood outside the health care company’s investor conference on Dec. 4, 2024. The ruling means that Mangione still faces 25-years-to-life in the state case, but that he will be eligible for parole if convicted at trial…Mangione also still faces separate federal charges that carry a possible death penalty… Bragg’s office had argued that Mangione should be considered a terrorist because he meant to kill Thompson to “intimidate or coerce a civilian population” — a claim that the judge rejected Tuesday…https://nypost.com/2025/09/16/us-news/luigi-mangione-top-terrorism-charges-thrown-out-by-judge-in-state-case-in-massive-blow-to-da/ \ @RapidResponse47: @FBIDirectorKash BODIES Pencil Neck @SenAdamSchiff: “What I am doing is protecting this country, providing historic reform and combatting the weaponization of intelligence by the likes of YOU — and we have countlessly proven YOU to be a liar in Russiagate, in January 6th. You are the biggest fraud to ever sit in the United States Senate. You are a disgrace to this institution, and an utter coward.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1968005485023363212
Kirk’s organization @TPUSA: As of this afternoon, in the past 6 days, TPUSA has received 54,000+ requests from high school and college students nationwide to start a chapter or get involved with an existing chapter. This is just the beginning.
GOP @RepLuna: “Armed Queers SLC” is now under FBI investigation as an extended network related to Charlie’s killer. The founder of Armed Queers SLC is also an organizer for PSL, which is funded by Neville Singham and the Chinese Communist Party… Why is Neville Singham affiliated with radical extremist groups that may have ties to Charlie Kirk’s assassin? https://x.com/RepLuna/status/1968072291499004315
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
‘Armed Queers’ Marxist Revolutionaries Under Investigation For Possible Foreknowledge Of Kirk’s Assassination Plot
The New York Post confirms that federal agents are investigating whether pro-trans online groups, “furries” with sexualized animal obsessions, and others tied to Robinson had advance knowledge of the political assassination plot. These groups include communities on the online gaming platform Steam, as well as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.
Instant messaging and VoIP social platform Discord stated that Robinson did not plan violence on the platform. However, a Discord spokesperson said the assassin wrote in a channel – just hours before arrest – that he was responsible for Kirk’s killing.
“Hey guys, I have bad news for you all,” read a message from an account that allegedly belonged to Robinson, according to CBS News, citing a law enforcement source. “It was me at UVU yesterday. im sorry for all of this.”
Robinson was formally charged moments ago with murder in Utah. He will be appearing in court at the top of the hour.
Recall that on Sunday, we cited an Axios report stating that federal law enforcement was broadening its investigation to include radical leftist groups. We noted, “There is still suspicion surrounding multiple groups, including Armed Queers Salt Lake City and the Socialist Rifle Association” (report here).
Not far from where FBI agents continue to scour for more evidence in Charlie Kirk’s assassination, a self-described armed revolutionary group openly aligned with Cuba has risen up on the streets of one of America’s most conservative states.
Armed Queers SLC says its mission is to train gay, queer and transgender people to arm themselves and to fight against capitalism. Although their purported Facebook page does not directly appear to encourage the use of firearms in their claimed mission, many of the images used depict firearms. As recently as this spring, its members traveled to Cuba for a meeting to celebrate the May Day holiday and participate in a march and events alongside revolutionaries from around the world.
. . .
Two leaders of Armed Queers — Ermyia Fanaeian and a man who called himself “Connor” — discussed their trip to Cuba in a since-deleted May video titled, “Cuba Report Back: Our Time as 2025 May Day Brigadistas.” A search by Just the News could not positively identify him.
Which leaves us with X user DataRepublican, also known as Jennica Pounds, who leads DOGE-adjacent efforts full-time, went down the Armed Queers rabbit hole last night.
What Pounds found expanded on Solomon’s report, and we are sure that the FBI and Rubio’s State Department are also investigating this radical leftist group, which has ties to Cuba and other organizations working to subvert the nation, with the ultimate goal of sparking a Marxist revolution to collapse capitalism and the nation.
END
Watch Patel give a fiery showdown with Schiff and Cory Booker
(zerohedge)
Kash Cooks “Fraud” Adam Schiff, Booker Blows Stack, And Epstein Who?
Tuesday, Sep 16, 2025 – 09:20 PM
FBI Director Kash Patel ignited a fiery showdown on Capitol Hill Tuesday, tearing into Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and labeling the California Democrat “the biggest fraud ever to sit in the Senate” for his relentless push of the discredited Russia hoax.
The clash erupted when Schiff pressed Patel on why convicted sex offender and Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell was transferred to a minimum-security prison – a move rare for sex offenders – after her DOJ interview, snidely asking if Patel thought Americans were “stupid.”
In short, the Trump DOJ’s complete fumble on Epsteinamid the backdrop off President Trump’s awkward evasive answers on the topic, has provided an opening for corrupt Democrats like Schiff to pounce and seize with newfound curiosity over the deceased pedophile.
“I’m not in the weeds of the everyday movement of inmates,” Patel fired back.
Patel then unloaded: “What I am doing is protecting this country, providing historic reform and combating the weaponization of intelligence by the likes of you, and we have countlessly proven you to be a liar in Russiagate, in January 6th. You are the biggest fraud to ever sit in the United States Senate. You are a disgrace to this institution, and an utter coward.”
🚨HOLY SHlT! Kash Patel just DEMOLISHED Pencil Neck.
This is the MOST EXPLOSIVE I have EVER seen Kash Patel react to anything and there is NOBODY who deserved it more than Adam Schiff.
"What I am doing is PROTECTING this country with historic reform and combatting the… pic.twitter.com/17BiNgBosE
The FBI head capped it off with another jab: “You are a political buffoon at best.”
Schiff wasn’t the only Democrat who got into it with Patel. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (D-CA) lost his cool during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing after Patel called out his three-minute rant, accusing Patel of endangering America and hinting his FBI days were numbered as misleading and divisive.
“That rant of false information does not bring this country together,” Patel said pointedly.
“My God! My God!” Booker erupted. “You’re going to lecture me about dividing this country? I follow you on your social media posts that tear this country apart.”
Amid the sparks, Patel dropped a bombshell sure to rile those demanding justice for Epstein’s collaborators, claiming there’s “zero evidence” Epstein trafficked young women “to other individuals.”
“If there were, I would bring the case yesterday that he trafficked to other individuals, and the information we have, again, is limited,” he told lawmakers, a statement likely to fuel outrage among those seeking answers.
JUST IN: Democrat Senator Cory Booker has a complete meltdown after FBI Director Kash Patel tells him his time is over.
Patel: "That rant of false information does not bring this country together. If you wanna work on…"
The Trump Justice Department has long denied the existence of a “client list” tied to Epstein, directly contradicting earlier remarks by Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi had previously suggested on Fox News that such a list was “sitting on my desk” for review, igniting speculation about Epstein’s possible blackmailing of globalist elites.
Trump has repeatedly sought to dismiss the scandal, accusing Democrats of fabricating a hoax around Epstein to thwart his agenda.
END
Hate Crime Charge After Subway Rider Called “White Boy”, Then Brutally Attacked On L Train
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 03:30 PM
A young woman is facing hate crime charges after allegedly assaulting a fellow passenger in a violent, unprovoked attack on a Manhattan subway train, according to the NY Post.
The incident unfolded around 2:10 a.m. Sunday aboard a southbound L train at the 1st Avenue and East 14th Street station. Authorities said Genesis Gittens — who had just celebrated her 20th birthday on Monday — was yelling when a 28-year-old man sitting nearby glanced in her direction.
That look reportedly sent Gittens into a fury. She began striking the rider in the face multiple times while hurling slurs, shouting, “White boy” and “cracker,” according to a criminal complaint. The repeated punches left the victim with a bloody nose, though he declined medical treatment, police said.
The NY Post writes that officers arrested Gittens less than an hour later. She was charged with third-degree assault as a hate crime, the complaint states. During her arraignment, she pleaded not guilty and was released, court records show.
The L train incident was not the only subway violence reported that day. Around 9 a.m. Sunday, police said a man believed to be homeless attacked a 35-year-old MTA cleaner from behind inside the 34th Street–Hudson Yards No. 7 station.
The assailant, who wore all gray and carried a blue blanket, allegedly punched the worker in the back of the head several times. After the victim fell, the attacker — who was barefoot — kicked him repeatedly, cops and sources said.
The suspect fled and remained at large as of Monday. Like the earlier victim, the cleaner refused medical attention at the scene.
Mainstream outlets now reporting: Alleged assassin Tyler Robinson did not act in a vacuum. There may even be DOZENS (!) with advanced knowledge of his sinister plans. Marxist infiltration…transgender ideology….trips to Cuba…money from CCP Operatives… This investigation is https://t.co/0O3DRLDrU1″ / X
harveyorganblog.com 
