SEPT 18/HUGE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $37.50 TO $3645.50/SILVER CLOSED DOWN ONLY 3 CENTS TO $41.82//PLATINUM HAD A GOOD DAY UP $16.55 TO $1392.95 WITH PALLADIUM ALSO UP BY $13.20 TO $1167.50//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT COURTESY OF ALASDAIR MACLEOD//TRUMP IS NOW SET TO GO AFTER SOROS AND HIS OSF “CHARITY” ON RICO CHARGES, AS WELL AS ANTIFA//BANK OF ENGLAND HOLDS RATES STEADY TODAY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES: LAST 24 HRS PODCAST COURTESY OF ISRAEL TBN/WEST BANK UPDATES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATS/COVID HEALTH ISSUES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS/MIKE EVERY COMMENTARY//ECONOMIC PROBLEMS FOR CANADA REPORTED/USA DATA RELEASES//JIMMY KIMMEL THROWN OUT BY DISNEY AND OTHER STATIONS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 109 323 C HSBC 160 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 139 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 6 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 104 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 9 16 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2 8 880 C CITIGROUP 2
TOTAL: 280 280 MONTH TO DATE: 6,050
MONTH TO DATE: 5,770
JPMORGAN STOPPED 109/280
SEPT
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 280 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 28,000 OZ or 0.8709 TONNES
total notices so far: 6050 contracts for 605000 OR 18.818 tonnes)
FOR SEPT
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SILVER NOTICES: 117 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.585 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 13,138 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 65.640 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95. TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.03 AT THE SLV:
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ PUT OF THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 488.357 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 2065 CONTRACTS TO 160,889 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0,69 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE CLOSING IN ON THE MAGIC ALL TIME HIGH OF $50.00. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1425 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A HUGE 640 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $42.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED STILL MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $40.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $41.85 LOSING 69 CENTS. . WE FINALLY STOPPED HAVING THOSE MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE BUT STILL WITNESSING SOMETIMES LARGE ISSUANCE: HOWEVER TODAY’S TOTAL ISSUANCE WAS RECORDED AT A HUGE SIZED 848 CONTRACTS. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 40.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A HUGE 640 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 848 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S RAID//// TRADING / AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE SIZED 1425 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.69.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 848 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.69) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1425 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,
WE HAD A 640 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 49.825 MILLION OZ COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 0.560 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL 3.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT. ISSUANCE//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.730 MILLION OZ///
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT: 69.730 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 640 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 848 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: XXXX CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAY(S), total 6490 contracts: OR 32.450 MILLION OZ (540 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.450 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 32.450 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2065 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.69 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 640 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 640 ISSUED FOR SEPT., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 6 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 66.730 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 69.730 MILLION OZ. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (848) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH TODAY’S TRADING!!
WE HAD 117 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.585 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1357 OI CONTRACTS TO 517,578 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A RELATIVELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL 383 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD AN INCREASE IN COMEX OI (1357 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $8.30 IN PRICE// WEDNESDAY///.
LAST 5 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5163 TONNES PLUS 2.954 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 19.319//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 38.252 TONNES!!
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1215 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 517,758 / GETTING HIGHER AND WE NOW WITNESS A FAIR COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 160,889 CONTRACTS
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3252 CONTRACTS WITH 1357 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1895 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3252 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 821 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE THIS MORNING. GOLD PRICE ON WEDNESDAY ROSE BY $8.30
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(1895) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1357 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3252 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR SEPT AT 8.093 TONNES PLUS 0.5163 TONNES QUEUE JUMP PLUS 2.954 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH 19.319 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO = 38.252 TONNES.@!!!
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, SEPT CONTRACT AT 38.252 TONNES OF GOLD
.
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD 1)A $8.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3252 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY (TODAY = 0.163 TONNES)
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (1895 CONTRACTS)/// SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 821 T.A.S.CONTRACTS/
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 23,068 CONTRACTS OR 2,306,800 OZ OR 71.751 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1922 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 71.751 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 71.751 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 71.751 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 2065 CONTRACTS OI TO 160,889 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 640 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 640 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 640 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2065 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 640 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1425 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.69 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.125 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.69 PTS OR 1.15%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 363.54 PTS OR 1.35%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 513.05 OR 1.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .70%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1075 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1047/ Oil DOWN TO 63.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 67.89 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1075 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1047 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1,357 CONTRACTS TO 517,578 OI WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.30 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME: 1:30 PM RIGHT BEFORE THE INTEREST RATE ANNNOUNCEMENT… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1895). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3252 CONTRACTS (OR 10.11 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD A HUGE 950 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 95,000 OZ OR 2.954 TONNES OF GOLD
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLYAS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
AND NOW:
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 6,211 CONTRACTS OR 621,100 OZ OR 19.319 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).LAST TUESDAY THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: FIVE ISSUANCES FOR 6211 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 621,100 OZ OR 19.319 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE.)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE.
DETAILS ON SEPTEMBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3635 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 821 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT LAST NIGHT SEPT 17-SEPT 18.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH PREVIOUS AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.5163 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 2.954. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 19.319 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.252 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 240 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
AND NOW SEPTEMBER:
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.5163 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 2.954 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY// NEW TOTALS OF 19.319 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/:
THAT IS;
A) 2.954 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY // =//TOTAL FOR MONTH EX FOPR RISK: 19.319 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) 0.5163 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP
TOTALS: 38.252 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1895 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1895 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1895 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY USED MONTHLY SEPT SPREADERS IN THEIR RAID TODAY.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1895 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
2) AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 5 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 19.319 TONNES.
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW SEPT:
SEPT: 18.933 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) +2.954 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY//
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 19.319//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 38.252 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $8.30./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY AND THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO THE GOVERNMENT TRADING AND SPECULATIVE LONGS PILING INTO COMEX TRADING /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS LIKE TODAY ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS).
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 10.11 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 0.578 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 2.954 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY/// TOTAL FOR MONTH TOTALS EX FOR RISK// MONTH = 19.319//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 38.252 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $45.30
WE HAD A SMALL 383 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3252 CONTRACTS OR 325200 0Z (10.11 TONNES)
i) Out of Brinks 31,057.866 oz (966 kilobars) total withdrawal 31,057.866 oz
.966 tonnes
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRIES
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi 80,505.267/ (2504 KILOBARS)
2.504 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
280 notice(s) 28,000 OZ 0.8709 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
37 contracts 3700 OZ 0.1151 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6050 notices 605,000 oz 18.818 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1
i) Into Asahi: 80,505.267 oz
(2504 kilobarss)
total deposit 80,505.267 oz
2.504 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
1.entries
1entries
i) Out of Brinks 31,057.866 oz (966 kilobars) total withdrawal 31,057.866 oz
.966 tonnes
ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) Customer to dealer Brinks 96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)
b) customer to dealer Asahi 46,008.993 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 317 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 43 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 123 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 166 CONTRACTS OR 16,600 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5163 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD TO OUR INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5163 TONNES AND THEN ADD MONTH SEPT// EX FOR RISK = 19.319//(WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 2.934 TONNES EX. FOR RISK) THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.252 TONNES
OCTOBER GAINED 24 CONTRACTS UP TO 59,578
NOVEMBER GAINED 106 CONTRACTS UP TO 3371 CONTRACTS.
We had 280 contracts filed for today representing 28000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 280 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 104 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6050 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 317 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (280 x 100 oz per contract) equals 608,700 OZ OR 18.933 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK/SEPT MONTH OF 19.319 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.252 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (6050 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (317 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (280 x 100 oz) which equals 608,700 OZ OR 18.933 TONNES PLUS 19.319 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 38.252 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 38.252 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,030,684.621 oz 63.162 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,280,533,848 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,511,920.651 or 669.11 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,768,613.197 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,481,236oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 605.95 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 17 2025
INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
3entries
1) Out of Delaware: 6173.324 oz ii) Out of Loomis 548,951.620 oz iii) Out of Stonex 685,516.270 ooz
total withdrawal 1,240,641.214 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
0
No of oz served today (contracts)
117 CONTRACT(S) (0.585 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
218 contracts (1.090 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
13,128 Contracts (65.640 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
1) Out of Delaware: 6173.324 oz ii) Out of Loomis 548,951.620 oz iii) Out of Stonex 685,516.270 ooz
total withdrawal 1,240,641.214 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 194.327 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 524 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 335 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 490 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 602 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 112 CONTRACTS OR 560,000 OZ ENTERTAINED A STRONG QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX INCREASES TO 66.730 MILLION OZ. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.730 MILLION OZ
STANDING FOR SILVER: 69.730 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER GAINED 262 CONTRACTS TO 2822
NOVEMBER GAINED 126 CONTRACTS UP TO 1869.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 117 or 0.585 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 97,120 strong//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,128 X5,000 oz = 65.640 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (335) AND the number of notices served upon today (117 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (13,128) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(335) minus number of notices served upon today (117)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 66.170 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT TOTALLING 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 69.730 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 69.730 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 194.327 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/524.086 million. 40.00%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 979/95 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
The Fed’s interest rate cut yesterday and the prospect of more to come confirms its changing priorities. Consequently, the dollar will weaken against both gold and other currencies.
Anticipating and following the Fed’s rate cut gold and silver are seeing a healthy shakeout, which could continue in the short-term. My guess is that both will go higher when the dollar’s TWI breaks down below current 96.75 (currently 97.00). It could be the key to timing:
Given confirmation that the Fed is giving in to political pressure (targeting unemployment is a handy excuse), it shouldn’t be long before the dollar breaks down into lower ground. For non-technical analysts, take my word for it: the chart above is bearish.
MacleodFinance Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Complacency is the order of the day with bond yields having declined, leading foreigners and US investors to think everything is normal. But the Fed is cutting interest rates just as inflationary pressures begin to mount, illustrated in the chart below:
Combine this bullish commodity setup with the dollar’s bearish outlook, for the Fed to de-emphasise inflation is a big mistake which will drive the dollar lower against not just other currencies but principally gold and other commodities..
Doubtless, traders will wait a little more for things to play out, seeing a possibility of further consolidation in gold and silver. Sensible stackers should not try to double guess the consolidation and do what the world’s central banks are doing: buy gold into the dips.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 240
a must view
5. COMMODITY REPORT COFFEE
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.69 PTS OR 1.15%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 363.54 PTS OR 1.35%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 513.05 OR 1.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .70%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1075 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1047/ Oil DOWN TO 63.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 67.89 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1075 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1047 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1075
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1047
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 363.54 PTS OR 1.35%
2. Nikkei closed UP 513.05 PTS OR 1.15%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.62 EURO RISES TO 1.1826 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.597//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.37…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.193 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6942 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.509 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.249
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.371
3j Gold at $3665.80 Silver at: 41.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 20 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.78
3m oil (WTI) into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.37/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.597% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.193 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7890 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9332 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.054 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.653 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.530 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.33
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6410 UP 1 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.440 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.191 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.757 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Jump To Fresh Record High After Fed Restarts Rate Cuts
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 08:32 AM
Futures are higher and back into record territory as investors shrug off some contradictions in the Fed’s policy statement and Powell’s hawkish news conference and refocus on the most dovish Fed statement since 2021, per JPM. “For whatever reason, it appears the Fed’s reaction function has shifted in a more dovish direction,” according to Bloomberg Econ head Anna Wong. S&P 500 futures were 0.8% higher at 8:05 am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures were +1.1%. Pre-mkt, Mag7 / Semis are bid up with NVDA +2.3%, AVGO +1.9%, TSLA +1.6%, GOOG +1.3%; tech was boosted by news that NVDA would buy a $5BN stake in rival chipmaker Intel. Nikkei +1.15%, Hang Seng -1.35%, Shanghai -1.15%, FTSE +15bps, CAC +1.1%, DAX +1.2%. “Last night the market was taking the view that this wasn’t so much of a dovish cut but, after sleeping on it, it decided that it was enough to keep the market going,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “Fed cuts are good for tech and long duration stocks.” Sure enough, both tech and small caps are outperforming as the US is poised for an “Everything Rally” alongside a global risk-on tone. The yield curve is bull flattening and USD is flat. Large-Caps across all the super-sectors are higher pre-mkt. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims where investors will look to confirm last week’s spike was a one-off.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are green across the board (Tesla +1.1%, Nvidia +3%, Alphabet +1.2%, Microsoft +0.3%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.6%). Some other notable movers:
89bio (ETNB) surges 83% after Roche said it will acquire the biopharmaceutical company for up to $3.5 billion.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) falls 8% after its sales guidance missed expectations, showing the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial and short-lived logo change.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 4% in the wake of an investor briefing where the software company discussed its AI strategy and gave a preliminary FY27 outlook for net new annual recurring revenue that analysts see as strong.
Darden Restaurants (DRI) falls 6% after adjusted earnings per share missed expectations. Same-store sales growth for Olive Garden also came in below consensus estimates.
FactSet (FDS) slips 3% after the the financial data provider forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2026, guidance that missed the average analyst estimate.
GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC) ticks 1.7% higher as the company is exploring options including the sale of a stake in its China unit, people familiar with the matter said.
Intel (INTC) climbs 28% after Nvidia agreed to invest $5 billion in the company and said the two will codevelop chips for PCs and data centers.
IonQ (IONQ) gains 4% after the company signed a MOU with the US Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space.
Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) falls 10% after the drone technology company launched a secondary offering of shares via Northland Capital Markets.
In tech news, Huawei unveiled new technology from memory chips to AI accelerators, outlining a multiyear plan to challenge Nvidia’s dominance. Elsewhere, the FT reported that China has decided to end an antitrust investigation into the dominance of Google’s Android. And Meta unveiled its first smart glasses with a built-in screen, the $799 Meta Ray-Ban Display.
In other corporate news, Disney’s ABC is taking Jimmy Kimmel Live! off the air indefinitely amid a backlash to remarks the late-night host made about the killing of Charlie Kirk. And Eli Lilly said that Mounjaro helped kids as young as 10 control their blood sugar and lose weight.
While stocks initially fluctuated in the hours after the Fed’s decision, on Thursday investors turned their focus to projections showing two more rate cuts for 2025, one more cut than they saw in June. That said, there is no smoking guy for the overnight strength with as news flow is light. Strategists said the Fed’s focus on recent labor-market weakness suggests it’s ready to support the economy, even at a time when growth remains robust and corporate profits advance. According to Goldman, the “FOMC statement leaned dovish while Powell was more balanced and framed the cut as “risk management” in response to downside risks in the labor mkt.”
“The ‘front-loading’ is probably the most important part of all this,” said Michael Brown, research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “If labor market weakness persists, then the Fed will continue to cut. The monetary backdrop is set to become much easier, much sooner.”
Also overnight, Norway’s Norges Bank cut 25bps (as expected) and the the BoE kept rates unchanged at 4.00% also as expected.
Meanwhile, the AI narrative remains a key thematic driver for many, while small-caps — typically more sensitive to rate cuts — are quietly breaking out of a long-term downtrend. Citigroup strategists note that Fed cuts have historically been a tailwind for global equities and a catalyst for broadening market performance. And investors who have driven stocks to record highs do expect a rather positive growth backdrop. Bank of America’s fund manager survey published this week showed that 67% anticipate a soft landing and 18% no landing, with only 10% braced for a downturn.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up by 0.6% with tech firms leading the way. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
Kone shares rise as much as 5%, hitting their highest level since early 2022, as the Finnish company is exploring a potential bid for rival TK Elevator
Wolters Kluwer shares rise as much as 5.6% on Thursday after the professional publisher said it’s speeding up the pace of share buybacks
Renishaw advances as much as 9.2%, hitting the highest since mid February, after the precision measuring equipment maker reported its full-year results
Nanobiotix shares rise as much as 20% to the highest since October 2021 after the French biotechnology company announced positive new results from an early-stage clinical study
Inchcape shares climb as much as 5% after analysts at UBS initiated coverage on the automotive distributor with a buy rating
Spire Healthcare shares rise as much as 7.7% as certain investors push the private hospital operator to explore a sale, according to a report from Sky News
OVS shares rise as much as 8.1% in Milan, the most since April 10, after the Italian fashion retailer reported an increase in adjusted Ebitda and net sales for the first half of the year.
Lime Technologies gains as much as 7.6%, the most since May, after DNB Carnegie raised its view on the Swedish enterprise software group to buy from hold
SIG shares fall as much as 24%, the most on record, triggering a temporary trading halt after the Swiss packaging maker cut its revenue growth guidance for 2025
Next shares drop as much as 6.6% after the UK fashion retailer said it expects UK sales growth to be lower in the second half compared with the first
Barry Callebaut falls as much as 5.1%, the most in a month, after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation on the Swiss chocolate firm to hold from buy
Pets at Home shares plummet as much as 23%, marking the biggest drop on record, after the pet supply retailer warned the market remained subdued
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, weighed by late losses in Chinese shares as a tech-led rally showed signs of cooling. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7%, on course to snap a 10-day winning streak. Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba were among the main drags on the gauge. Australian energy firm Santos also posted steep losses after a third attempted sale faltered. The decline on Thursday puts a pause on the Asian benchmark’s climb after hitting a record high in the previous session. Sentiment in the region was downbeat even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Trading in Chinese equities turned volatile late in the day, with analysts pointing to profit taking after the recent rally. Mainland China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 1.2%, while a gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares dropped 1.5%. Equities also fell in New Zealand after the country’s economy shrank more than expected in the second quarter. Elsewhere, South Korea outperformed as chipmakers got a boost from expectations for earnings to beat estimates amid an environment of lower borrowing cost. Tech stocks also rose in Japan on continued interest in artificial intelligence.
In FX, the dollar swoons against G-10 currencies, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erasing most of its earlier gain. New Zealand dollar is the worst performer following a weak GDP reading. Sterling and gilts are steady ahead of an expected hold from the Bank of England. Norwegian krone pares its decline against the euro after Norges Bank cuts rates but gives a hawkish outlook.
In rates, US Treasuries outperform peers as European bonds decline; Treasuries held gains accumulated during Asia session and European morning, erasing Wednesday’s losses that followed Fed Chair Powell’s post-FOMC comments advocating a cautious approach to further easing. Treasury yields are 3bp-4bp richer across the curve with intermediates leading, flattening 2s10s and 2s5s spreads by about 1bp; 2s5s30s fly is about 1.5bp richer after widening sharply Wednesday. US 10-year yield is back down to around 4.05%, richer by 4bp on the day, with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 5bp. Following Wednesday’s FOMC rate cut, OIS contracts price in around 45bp of additional easing over this year’s two remaining meetings and a terminal rate of around 2.9% by mid-2026. Treasury auctions resume at 1pm New York time with $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims data and a 10-year TIPS reopening. UK gilts have had muted initial reaction to Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep policy rate at 4% as expected.
In commodities, gold reverses an earlier decline to gain about $9 to around $3,668/oz and oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range, with Brent below $68/barrel.
US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and September Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), August Leading index (10am) and July TIC flows (4pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.9%
Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
Russell 2000 mini +1.5%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
DAX +1.3%
CAC 40 +1.2%
10-year Treasury yield -4 basis points at 4.05%
VIX -0.9 points at 14.83
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1191.67
euro +0.1% at $1.183
WTI crude -0.3% at $63.88/barrel
Top Overnight News
US government shutdown risks are rising, with Democrats demanding health care policy changes that House Speaker Mike Johnson has said have “zero” chance of becoming law. The US House cleared the procedural hurdle for a floor vote this week on the stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown. BBG
Punchbowl, on the possibility of a US shutdown, surmises “Republican and Democratic leaders are growing further apart rather than closer.”
Donald Trump’s UK visit turns to diplomatic talks with PM Keir Starmer, which are expected to focus on trade and the war in Ukraine. There will be a joint press conference, at which some tech investments may be announced. BBG
The Trump administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers as they head into harvest facing falling export sales and rising input costs. FT
China is dropping an antitrust probe into Google, as Beijing and Washington step up negotiations over TikTok, Nvidia and trade at a time of heightened tensions between the superpowers. FT
China rare earth exports jumped to a record level in Aug as Beijing permits expanded shipments following an easing of tensions with Washington. BBG
Huawei outlined its long-term chip plans for the first time on Thursday and said it would launch some of the world’s most powerful computing systems – underscoring China’s drive to wean itself off foreign semiconductor suppliers like Nvidia. RTRS
Norway’s central bank lowered rates by 25bp to 4%, as expected, and while it forecast additional cuts over the coming year, it also noted that “a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June. Norges Bank
Germany will borrow about a fifth more than planned in the fourth quarter to help fund a surge in spending on infrastructure and the armed forces. They aim to raise €90.5 billion ($107 billion) in the October-December period, excluding green bonds, according to an updated plan published Thursday. That’s €15 billion more than December’s original program and follows an increase of €19 billion in the third quarter. BBG
The BOE will probably announce a slowing of gilt sales at its decision today amid concern about worsening bond market volatility. No rate change is expected. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
China is reportedly dropping the Google (GOOG) antitrust probe during US trade talks, according to FT.
US House China Panel Chair said he’s concerned regarding the TikTok deal.
Brazilian President Lula said he has no relationship with US President Trump, while he described US tariffs as ’eminently political’ and said US consumers would be facing higher prices for Brazilian goods as a result, according to a BBC interview. It was also reported that Lula signed an executive order that exempts some data centre equipment from federal taxes.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says it will review approval for technology and intellectual property transfers linked to TikTok.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy reaction to the FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, and just about signalled two further rate cuts this year, although Fed Chair Powell provided some hawkish-leaning comments during the presser. ASX 200 declined with underperformance in energy as Santos shares suffered a double-digit percentage drop after the XRG consortium abandoned its USD 18.7bln takeover bid, while sentiment was also not helped by a surprise contraction in employment data. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 45k level and printed a fresh all-time high amid currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing machinery orders, while the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting where it is widely anticipated to remain on pause. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with continued tech strength seen after China’s CAC reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s RTX Pro 6000D, in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry, while Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival the AI darling. Nonetheless, the Hong Kong benchmark faded early gains despite the HKMA cutting rates in lockstep with the Fed, with a pullback seen after it briefly breached the 27,000 level for the first time in four years.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its base rate by 25bps to 4.50%, as expected, while HKMA Chief Executive Yue said the interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the property market and the economy.
Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival NVIDIA (NVDA), with the Co. to launch its Ascend 950PR chips during Q1 2026 and plans new AI chips through 2028, while Huawei’s Vice Chairman said the Co. will launch Taishan 950 SuperPod for general-purpose computing in Q2 2026.
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis announced the appointment of Haley Gourley to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee.
SoftBank (9984 JT) and OpenAI’s Japanese AI joint venture reportedly delayed, according to Reuters sources.
Japanese former digital minister Kono is to back Koizumi in the LDP leadership race, according to Kyodo News
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) opened firmer across the board and has continued to hold an upward bias throughout the morning. Positive sentiment which comes after the Fed decided to cut rates by 25bps, but it has been described as a “hawkish cut” by some analysts. Nonetheless, sentiment has been boosted across the equities complex. European sectors opened mixed but now has a very slight positive tilt. The cyclical sectors are all towards the top of the pile, with sentiment boosted following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25bps; Tech continues its past couple of days of outperformance, largely led by Dutch semi-conductor names; ASML (+2.5%), BE Semi (+2%). Industrials take the second spot, then followed by Construction & Materials. To the bottom of the pile lies Optimised Personal Care, followed closely by Media and Retail; the breadth of those in negative territory is very narrow.
Top European News
Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.25%); Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June. Updated MPR: Q4-2025 4.00% (prev. 3.98%), Q1-2026 4.00% (prev. 3.81%), Q2-2026 3.92% (prev. 3.62%), Q3-2026 3.85% (prev. 3.49%), Q4-2026 3.74% (prev. 3.39%). Q4-2027 3.34% (prev. 3.14%).
Norges Bank Governor Bache says activity picked up more than expected The timing of the next move is not certain.
German government to raise additional EUR 10.5bln via capital market in Q4.
German Debt Agency Head says the nation will not issue 50yr bonds; seeing good demand for long-dated bonds from central banks German paper is benefiting from uncertainty regarding France.
ECB’s de Guindos says need to pay a lot of attention to NEER rather than just EUR/USD Risk of undershooting for the ECB is “not big” or “especially relevant”. Risks to inflation are balanced and two-sided. Do not target a specific EUR level.
FX
USD trimmed earlier gains after ultimately strengthening in the aftermath of the FOMC with initial selling seen in reaction to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25bps, which was as expected, and as the SEPs showed projections for two more cuts this year. The dollar rebounded during the post-meeting press conference, where Powell provided hawkish-leaning comments in which he noted that he feels they don’t need to move quickly on rates. DXY resides in a 96.897-97.311 range at the time of writing.
EUR is posting mild intraday gains in tandem with the dollar trimming earlier upside. Newsflow for Europe has been light, although ECB’s de Guindos hit the wires and suggested the ECB needs to pay a lot of attention to NEER rather than just EUR/USD, whilst the risk of undershooting for the ECB is “not big” or “especially relevant”, and risks to inflation are balanced and two-sided. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1780-1.1838 range.
USD/JPY swung between gains and losses in reaction to the Fed, with USD/JPY eventually reclaiming the 147.00 status, while the Japanese currency was not helped overnight by disappointing Machinery Orders, and the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Elsewhere, Japanese LDP leadership candidate Hayashi, noted that Japan’s consumption tax is an important source of revenue to fund social welfare costs, and added that “Abenomics” was an appropriate policy at a time when Japan was suffering. Hayashi also suggested that Japan’s conditions have allowed the BoJ to raise rates, the economy is now at a new phase, and Japan’s inflation is cost-push, not demand-driven. USD/JPY trades in a current 146.77-147.53 range.
Cable faded the knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC and reverted to sub-1.3700 territory, while attention turns to the BoE. The BoE is expected to keep the Base Rate at 4.0% via a 7-2 vote, following August’s close-cut easing. Inflation remains above target, with further easing not fully priced until April 2026. Attention will focus on any guidance on future cuts and on quantitative tightening, where consensus expects a slowdown to GBP 70bln per annum from October. BoE is expected to slow the pace of QT, reducing gilt sales to GBP 70bln a year (from GBP 100bln) amid concerns that current sales are exacerbating bond market volatility, with limits also possible on long-dated gilt disposals, according to a Bloomberg survey. Cable trades in a 1.3586-1.3640 range
Antipodeans are both softer with the Kiwi the marked G10 laggard following weak GDP data for Q2 in which the economy contracted by 0.6% Y/Y (exp. 0.0%) and resulted in money markets fully pricing a cut at the RBNZ meeting in October with an off chance for an oversized 50bps reduction.
EUR/NOK knee-jerked higher on the Norges Bank’s decision to cut rates by 25bps, but soon reversed as traders digested the hawkish MPR and commentary.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1085 vs exp. 7.1113 (Prev. 7.1013).
Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB removed the reference to the continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle and said it will remain vigilant, while it will evaluate whether maintaining the interest rate at its current level for a very prolonged period will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target. Furthermore, it stated that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, and it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
Fixed Income
A firmer start to the day for USTs. Following the two-way moves seen on the Fed with the 25bps cut and statement sparking a dovish move, however, this then reversed into and during the press conference from Chair Powell. As it stands, USTs are higher by a handful of ticks towards the upper-end of a 113-00 to 113-12 band. From the Fed, a few points of note worth briefly discussing. Firstly, the vote split saw just Miran dissent and push for a 50bps move, with the omission of Bowman and/or Waller from the 50bps camp of note, and potentially factoring into the initial reversal of the dovish move seen before Chair Powell began. Thereafter, Powell was much more hawkish than the statement suggested. Powell placed less emphasis on the dovish statement/SEP, described the cut as a risk management decision in response to “meaningful” downside risks to the labour market. Now attention turns to Jobless Claims.
Bunds moved in tandem with USTs on Wednesday evening. This morning, the benchmark has been a little choppy. Initially held near the unchanged mark before picking up a little bit in the European pre-market, seemingly as European futures waned ever so slightly from best levels. However, this strength didn’t amount to much with Bunds only firmer by 10 ticks at best. Since, the benchmark has pulled back into the red and resides towards the lower end of a 128.75 to 129.02 band. No move in Bunds to the slightly softer than usual, but still robust enough, Spanish tap; and a strong French outing.
For Gilts, the main event today is the BoE. Into it, Gilts are a touch softer moving in tandem with Bunds, at the low end of a 91.44-67 band. The decision is, all but certain, to be unchanged at 4.00%. On this, the vote split may draw some attention as we are likely to see dovish dissent from Dhingra (in-fitting with her known bias) and Taylor (voted for 50bps cut last time, changed to 25bps in order to attain a consensus). More pertinently, the balance sheet. The BoE is expected to provide an update on QT. The pace will undoubtedly be slowed from the current GBP 100bln per anum rate from October. Consensus is for a reduction to around GBP 70bln.
Spain sells EUR 5.41bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.40% 2028, 3.20% 2035, and 4.00% 2054 Bono.
France sells EUR 11.5bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 0.75% 2028, 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, and 3.50% 2033 OAT.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are subdued but confined to a tight range in the aftermath of the Fed and with notable energy-specific newsflow on the lighter side. WTI currently resides in a USD 63.14-63.91/bbl range while Brent sits in USD 67.37-68.01/bbl parameters.
Spot gold began the European session in the red, pressured by the firmer Dollar in the aftermath of the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25bps, and the hawkish-leaning Powell presser thereafter. As the morning progressed, the Dollar did come off best levels, which has allowed XAU/USD to climb into modest positive territory; currently trading towards the upper end of a USD 3,634.28-3,671.67/oz range.
Base metals subdued across the board despite firmer sentiment in Europe but following the losses seen across Chinese markets. 3M LME copper fell back under USD 10k/t and found resistance at the level, residing in a USD 9,931.55-9,999.95/t band.
Peru’s President signed a modification contract, allowing Chevron (CVX) and Westlawn’s formal entry into Peru.
Spot gold was contained after ultimately retreating as the dollar strengthened due to Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the post-FOMC presser.
Qatar raises November term price for Al-Shaheen oil to USD 3.61/bbl, via Reuters citing sources.
Russian Finance Minister says they plan to lower the bar for oil and gas revenue formation when preparing the budget; plan to lower cut-off price of oil, currently at USD 60/bbl, by USD 1bln every year to 2030.
Geopolitics
Syrian President al- Sharaa told reporters that security talks with Israel could lead to results in the “coming days” and if a security pact succeeds, “other agreements” could be reached but “peace, normalisation” is not currently on the table, while he added there is no pressure on Damascus to reach a deal with Israel from Washington.
8:30 am: Sep 6 Continuing Claims, est. 1950k, prior 1939k
8:30 am: Sep Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 1.7, prior -0.3
10:00 am: Aug Leading Index, est. -0.2%, prior -0.1%
4:00 pm: Jul Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 150.8b
4:00 pm: Jul Total Net TIC Flows, prior 77.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Last night the FOMC delivered its first rate cut of 2025, lowering the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4.00-4.25% as expected. But with Chair Powell describing the decision as a “risk-management cut”, markets were left feeling less confident on the extent of the likely easing cycle and Treasury yields were higher across the curve by the close with US equities flattish after a choppy post FOMC last couple of hours of trading. This morning in Asia markets have taken a slightly more positive take with S&P (+0.49%) and NASDAQ futures (+0.73%) rallying and US Treasury yields 2-2.5bps lower across the board.
As expected by our economists, the Fed’s dot plot saw the median dot narrowly shift from 50bp to 75bps of total cuts for 2025, so implying 25bps cuts at each of the remaining two meetings. The 2026 and 2027 median dots were also 25bps lower at 3.4% and 3.1% respectively even as median growth and inflation projections for 2026 were both revised two-tenths higher compared to June. This suggested a more dovish Fed reaction function to the evolving balance of risks, and in the press conference Chair Powell said it was “risks that we’re seeing to the labour market” that drove the rate cut as the labour market could no longer be described as “solid”.
However, Powell also noted that the balance of risks was still slightly tilted towards inflation concerns and de-emphasised the dot plot signal of two additional 2025 cuts, rather saying that the FOMC was in a “meeting-by-meeting situation”. So left a sense that the Fed is not yet envisaging an aggressive easing cycle and fed funds futures drifted higher in response, with December 2026 pricing rising by +7.5bps on the day to 2.93%. Our US economists note that while there was greater-than-expected unity in yesterday’s decision – with Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed Board of Governors earlier in the week, being the lone dissent in advocating for a 50bp cut – the dot plot still signaled a highly divided Committee, with 2026 dots spread pretty evenly from 2.5% to 4.0%. Our economists maintain their baseline of two more 25bps cuts in October and December, but see risks of a skip if labor market and inflation data both surprise to the upside.
Markets have seen saw a topsy-turvy reaction post-FOMC. An initial kneejerk rally in Treasuries turned into a sell-off with 2yr yields closing +5.0bps higher at 3.55% despite trading as low as 3.466% just after the decision. There were similar yield rises for the 10yr (+6.0bps to 4.09%) and 30yr (+4.2bps to 4.69%). As discussed at the top yields are back down a couple of basis points this morning. A negative turn was also visible in equities, with S&P 500 falling as a low as -0.84% intra-day as Powell spoke, though the index recovered back to only -0.10% down by the close. Information technology (-0.70%) led the declines for the S&P but more domestic and rate-sensitive sectors advanced, led by financials (+0.96%) and consumer staples (+0.90%). As also discussed at the top US futures have rebounded this morning. Meanwhile, the dollar index is up +0.18% overnight, building on yesterday’s +0.25% advance that came despite an initial post-FOMC decline of nearly -0.5%.
Before the Fed, European markets put in a mixed performance, with the STOXX 600 (-0.03%) posting a marginal decline. In part, that was simply investors remaining in a holding pattern before the Fed, but matters weren’t helped by an underperformance in French assets, as limited progress on the budget talks between new PM Lecornu and the Socialists unsettled investors. So that meant the CAC 40 (-0.40%) underperformed, and the 10yr Franco-German spread widened +1.1bps to 81bps, closing back in on its 8-month high.
Outside of France however, European markets put in a better performance, and in absolute terms we saw yields move lower across the continent. That was helped by a downward revision in the final Euro Area CPI print for August, which came in at +2.0% (vs. flash +2.1%), so exactly in line with the ECB’s target. So the downward inflation revision and the prospect of a Fed rate cut helped yields on 10yr bunds (-2.1bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps) to fall back. Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the Bank of England announce their latest policy decision. It’s widely expected that they’ll keep rates unchanged at 4%, and our UK economist Sanjay Raja expects a 7-2 vote split. So the main focus will instead be on any changes to their forward guidance and the QT decision. In his preview (link here), he argues that there’s a material risk that the MPC abandons its “gradual and careful” guidance surrounding the downward path for Bank Rate. And on QT, he expects the MPC to reduce their QT envelope from £100bn to £70bn with a broad landing zone of £65-75bn. Ahead of the decision, we also had the latest UK inflation data for August, although there was little market reaction as it was much as expected. So headline CPI was steady at +3.8%, whilst core CPI fell to +3.6%, both in line with consensus.
Asian equity markets are mostly rallying this morning on the Fed move with the Nikkei (+1.33%) and KOSPI (+1.19%) notably higher. In contrast, the Hang Seng (-0.21%) is slightly lower, erasing earlier gains, while both the CSI (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.45%) are up. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.60%) is defying the regional trend following a disappointing jobs report.
Australia’s unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, but employment unexpectedly declined, with the economy losing approximately 5,400 jobs, including a drop of 41,000 in full-time positions, despite an increase in part-time roles. The report implies that the labour market may be gradually softening. There is no change to the house view of a November, February and March series of 25bps cuts to a 2.85% terminal rate but the report leans on the dovish side.
Additionally, New Zealand’s economy contracted more than anticipated in the second quarter, as weak manufacturing activity and declining export volumes largely counterbalanced modest growth in private spending. The economy contracted by -0.9% q/q, worse than the expected -0.3% decline, and reversing the revised +0.9% increase from the previous quarter. Furthermore, GDP decreased by -0.6% y/y, falling short of expectations that growth would remain stable. GDP had also declined by -0.6% in the first quarter.
Elsewhere in markets, the FT reported that China’s internet regulator had told the country’s tech companies to stop buying Nvidia AI chips and terminate its existing orders. The news caused Nvidia to fall -2.62% yesterday, making it the worst performer in the Magnificent 7 (-0.40%). Separately, US housing data for August showed the fewest building permits since May 2020 during the pandemic, down c.11% YoY and to an annualised rate of 1312K (vs. 1370k expected).
Finally on central banks, the Bank of Canada cut their overnight rate by 25bps as expected to 2.5%. It was the first rate cut since March, but there was little guidance in the statement on where policy was heading next, and the statement said that they were “proceeding carefully”. That backdrop saw Canadian government bond yields move higher, with the 10yr yield up +3.9bps to 3.19%.
To the day ahead now, in addition to the BoE’s decision we’ll also get the Norges Bank decision. Data releases include the US September Philadelphia business outlook, August leading index, July total net TIC flows and initial jobless claims. In Europe, we’ll receive Italy’s July current account balance, ECB July current account and the Eurozone July construction output. Lastly, the US will also be holding its reopening of 10-yr TIPS Auction.
2b) European opening report
Stocks grind higher, DXY trims earlier gain, and bonds steady post-FOMC – Newsquawk US market open
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 06:32 AM
European bourses are stronger today and trade just off highs; US equity futures also gain, with modest outperformance in the RTY.
China drops Google (GOOG) antitrust probe during US trade talks, according to FT
DXY trims some post-FOMC gains this morning; NZD plumbs the depths on GDP.
Bonds are mixed in the aftermath of the FOMC; Gilts await the BoE.
Crude is subdued and precious metals hold an upward bias.
Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug), BoE Announcement, SARB Announcement, Speakers include ECBʼs Nagel, US President Trump & UK PM Starmer press conference. Earnings from FedEx & Lennar.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
China is reportedly dropping the Google (GOOG) antitrust probe during US trade talks, according to FT.
US House China Panel Chair said he’s concerned regarding the TikTok deal.
Brazilian President Lula said he has no relationship with US President Trump, while he described US tariffs as ’eminently political’ and said US consumers would be facing higher prices for Brazilian goods as a result, according to a BBC interview. It was also reported that Lula signed an executive order that exempts some data centre equipment from federal taxes.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says it will review approval for technology and intellectual property transfers linked to TikTok.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) opened firmer across the board and has continued to hold an upward bias throughout the morning. Positive sentiment which comes after the Fed decided to cut rates by 25bps, but it has been described as a “hawkish cut” by some analysts. Nonetheless, sentiment has been boosted across the equities complex.
European sectors opened mixed but now has a very slight positive tilt. The cyclical sectors are all towards the top of the pile, with sentiment boosted following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25bps; Tech continues its past couple of days of outperformance, largely led by Dutch semi-conductor names; ASML (+2.5%), BE Semi (+2%). Industrials take the second spot, then followed by Construction & Materials. To the bottom of the pile lies Optimised Personal Care, followed closely by Media and Retail; the breadth of those in negative territory is very narrow.
US equity futures (ES +0.7%, NQ +0.8%, RTY +1.1%) are firmer across the board, and with some slight outperformance in the economy-linked RTY.
Meta (1.20% pre-market) has in recent months approached a number of media names about potentially licensing their articles for AI tools, via WSJ citing sources
USD trimmed earlier gains after ultimately strengthening in the aftermath of the FOMC with initial selling seen in reaction to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25bps, which was as expected, and as the SEPs showed projections for two more cuts this year. The dollar rebounded during the post-meeting press conference, where Powell provided hawkish-leaning comments in which he noted that he feels they don’t need to move quickly on rates. DXY resides in a 96.897-97.311 range at the time of writing.
EUR is posting mild intraday gains in tandem with the dollar trimming earlier upside. Newsflow for Europe has been light, although ECB’s de Guindos hit the wires and suggested the ECB needs to pay a lot of attention to NEER rather than just EUR/USD, whilst the risk of undershooting for the ECB is “not big” or “especially relevant”, and risks to inflation are balanced and two-sided. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1780-1.1838 range.
USD/JPY swung between gains and losses in reaction to the Fed, with USD/JPY eventually reclaiming the 147.00 status, while the Japanese currency was not helped overnight by disappointing Machinery Orders, and the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Elsewhere, Japanese LDP leadership candidate Hayashi, noted that Japan’s consumption tax is an important source of revenue to fund social welfare costs, and added that “Abenomics” was an appropriate policy at a time when Japan was suffering. Hayashi also suggested that Japan’s conditions have allowed the BoJ to raise rates, the economy is now at a new phase, and Japan’s inflation is cost-push, not demand-driven. USD/JPY trades in a current 146.77-147.53 range.
Cable faded the knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC and reverted to sub-1.3700 territory, while attention turns to the BoE. The BoE is expected to keep the Base Rate at 4.0% via a 7-2 vote, following August’s close-cut easing. Inflation remains above target, with further easing not fully priced until April 2026. Attention will focus on any guidance on future cuts and on quantitative tightening, where consensus expects a slowdown to GBP 70bln per annum from October. BoE is expected to slow the pace of QT, reducing gilt sales to GBP 70bln a year (from GBP 100bln) amid concerns that current sales are exacerbating bond market volatility, with limits also possible on long-dated gilt disposals, according to a Bloomberg survey. Cable trades in a 1.3586-1.3640 range
Antipodeans are both softer with the Kiwi the marked G10 laggard following weak GDP data for Q2 in which the economy contracted by 0.6% Y/Y (exp. 0.0%) and resulted in money markets fully pricing a cut at the RBNZ meeting in October with an off chance for an oversized 50bps reduction.
EUR/NOK knee-jerked higher on the Norges Bank’s decision to cut rates by 25bps, but soon reversed as traders digested the hawkish MPR and commentary.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1085 vs exp. 7.1113 (Prev. 7.1013).
Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB removed the reference to the continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle and said it will remain vigilant, while it will evaluate whether maintaining the interest rate at its current level for a very prolonged period will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target. Furthermore, it stated that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, and it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
A firmer start to the day for USTs. Following the two-way moves seen on the Fed with the 25bps cut and statement sparking a dovish move, however, this then reversed into and during the press conference from Chair Powell. As it stands, USTs are higher by a handful of ticks towards the upper-end of a 113-00 to 113-12 band. From the Fed, a few points of note worth briefly discussing. Firstly, the vote split saw just Miran dissent and push for a 50bps move, with the omission of Bowman and/or Waller from the 50bps camp of note, and potentially factoring into the initial reversal of the dovish move seen before Chair Powell began. Thereafter, Powell was much more hawkish than the statement suggested. Powell placed less emphasis on the dovish statement/SEP, described the cut as a risk management decision in response to “meaningful” downside risks to the labour market. Now attention turns to Jobless Claims.
Bunds moved in tandem with USTs on Wednesday evening. This morning, the benchmark has been a little choppy. Initially held near the unchanged mark before picking up a little bit in the European pre-market, seemingly as European futures waned ever so slightly from best levels. However, this strength didn’t amount to much with Bunds only firmer by 10 ticks at best. Since, the benchmark has pulled back into the red and resides towards the lower end of a 128.75 to 129.02 band. No move in Bunds to the slightly softer than usual, but still robust enough, Spanish tap; and a strong French outing.
For Gilts, the main event today is the BoE. Into it, Gilts are a touch softer moving in tandem with Bunds, at the low end of a 91.44-67 band. The decision is, all but certain, to be unchanged at 4.00%. On this, the vote split may draw some attention as we are likely to see dovish dissent from Dhingra (in-fitting with her known bias) and Taylor (voted for 50bps cut last time, changed to 25bps in order to attain a consensus). More pertinently, the balance sheet. The BoE is expected to provide an update on QT. The pace will undoubtedly be slowed from the current GBP 100bln per anum rate from October. Consensus is for a reduction to around GBP 70bln.
Spain sells EUR 5.41bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.40% 2028, 3.20% 2035, and 4.00% 2054 Bono.
France sells EUR 11.5bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 0.75% 2028, 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, and 3.50% 2033 OAT.
WTI and Brent are subdued but confined to a tight range in the aftermath of the Fed and with notable energy-specific newsflow on the lighter side. WTI currently resides in a USD 63.14-63.91/bbl range while Brent sits in USD 67.37-68.01/bbl parameters.
Spot gold began the European session in the red, pressured by the firmer Dollar in the aftermath of the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25bps, and the hawkish-leaning Powell presser thereafter. As the morning progressed, the Dollar did come off best levels, which has allowed XAU/USD to climb into modest positive territory; currently trading towards the upper end of a USD 3,634.28-3,671.67/oz range.
Base metals subdued across the board despite firmer sentiment in Europe but following the losses seen across Chinese markets. 3M LME copper fell back under USD 10k/t and found resistance at the level, residing in a USD 9,931.55-9,999.95/t band.
Peru’s President signed a modification contract, allowing Chevron (CVX) and Westlawn’s formal entry into Peru.
Spot gold was contained after ultimately retreating as the dollar strengthened due to Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the post-FOMC presser.
Qatar raises November term price for Al-Shaheen oil to USD 3.61/bbl, via Reuters citing sources.
Russian Finance Minister says they plan to lower the bar for oil and gas revenue formation when preparing the budget; plan to lower cut-off price of oil, currently at USD 60/bbl, by USD 1bln every year to 2030.
EU Current Account SA, EUR (Jul) 27.7B (Prev. 35.8B); Current Account NSA,EUR (Jul) 35.0B (Prev. 38.9B)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.25%); Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June. Updated MPR:Q4-2025 4.00% (prev. 3.98%), Q1-2026 4.00% (prev. 3.81%), Q2-2026 3.92% (prev. 3.62%), Q3-2026 3.85% (prev. 3.49%), Q4-2026 3.74% (prev. 3.39%). Q4-2027 3.34% (prev. 3.14%).
Norges Bank Governor Bache says activity picked up more than expected The timing of the next move is not certain.
German government to raise additional EUR 10.5bln via capital market in Q4.
German Debt Agency Head says the nation will not issue 50yr bonds; seeing good demand for long-dated bonds from central banks German paper is benefiting from uncertainty regarding France.
ECB’s de Guindos says need to pay a lot of attention to NEER rather than just EUR/USD Risk of undershooting for the ECB is “not big” or “especially relevant”. Risks to inflation are balanced and two-sided. Do not target a specific EUR level.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House cleared the procedural hurdle for a floor vote this week on the stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown.
US President Trump’s administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers, according to FT citing US Agricultural Secretary Rollins.
Punchbowl, on the possibility of a US shutdown, surmises “Republican and Democratic leaders are growing further apart rather than closer.”
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Syrian President al- Sharaa told reporters that security talks with Israel could lead to results in the “coming days” and if a security pact succeeds, “other agreements” could be reached but “peace, normalisation” is not currently on the table, while he added there is no pressure on Damascus to reach a deal with Israel from Washington.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades above USD 117k, whilst Ethereum outperforms a touch and trades just shy of USD 4.6k.
US SEC voted to approve generic listing standards for new crypto ETFs, which clears the way for a flood of new ETFs.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy reaction to the FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, and just about signalled two further rate cuts this year, although Fed Chair Powell provided some hawkish-leaning comments during the presser.
ASX 200 declined with underperformance in energy as Santos shares suffered a double-digit percentage drop after the XRG consortium abandoned its USD 18.7bln takeover bid, while sentiment was also not helped by a surprise contraction in employment data.
Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 45k level and printed a fresh all-time high amid currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing machinery orders, while the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting where it is widely anticipated to remain on pause.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with continued tech strength seen after China’s CAC reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s RTX Pro 6000D, in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry, while Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival the AI darling. Nonetheless, the Hong Kong benchmark faded early gains despite the HKMA cutting rates in lockstep with the Fed, with a pullback seen after it briefly breached the 27,000 level for the first time in four years.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its base rate by 25bps to 4.50%, as expected, while HKMA Chief Executive Yue said the interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the property market and the economy.
Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival NVIDIA (NVDA), with the Co. to launch its Ascend 950PR chips during Q1 2026 and plans new AI chips through 2028, while Huawei’s Vice Chairman said the Co. will launch Taishan 950 SuperPod for general-purpose computing in Q2 2026.
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis announced the appointment of Haley Gourley to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee.
SoftBank (9984 JT) and OpenAI’s Japanese AI joint venture reportedly delayed, according to Reuters sources.
Japanese former digital minister Kono is to back Koizumi in the LDP leadership race, according to Kyodo News
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) -4.6% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. 3.0%); YY (Jul) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 7.6%)
Australian Employment (Aug) -5.4k vs. Exp. 21.5k (Prev. 24.5k, Rev. 26.5k)
Australian Full Time Employment (Aug) -40.9k (Prev. 60.5k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
Australian Participation Rate (Aug) 66.8% vs. Exp. 67.0% (Prev. 67.0%)
New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ SA (Q2) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.9%); YY SA (Q2) -0.6% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.7%, Rev. -0.6%)
2c) Asian opening report
European Market Open: FOMC statement and SEPs were dovish, Chair Powell’s presser was hawkish; European stocks point higher
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 01:48 AM
Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25%, as expected, citing a shift in risk balance. Bowman and Waller joined consensus, calling for a 25bps reduction; new Governor Miran dissented, preferring a 50bps cut.
Nine of the 19 Fed officials see two additional cuts in 2025, two see one cut, and six see no more reductions.
Fed Chair Powell said he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates, and that “you could think of the cut as a risk management cut”, and that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Markets saw an initial dovish reaction to the FOMC statement followed by a hawkish reversal heading into and during Chair Powell’s press conference. Fed rate cut in December still fully priced in.
APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy reaction to the FOMC meeting; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug), BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB Announcement, Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Nagel & Schnabel, US President Trump & UK PM Starmer press conference, Supply from Spain, France & US, Earnings from FedEx & Lennar.
Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25%, as expected, citing a shift in risk balance. Bowman and Waller joined consensus, calling for a 25bps reduction; new Governor Miran dissented, preferring a 50bps cut. Nine of the 19 officials see two additional cuts in 2025, two see one cut, and six see no more reductions. Fed adjusted guidance to state that “in considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…” from “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments”. It also tweaked its labour market view, downgrading the language which is no longer ‘solid’, while it stated unemployment has edged up but ‘remains low’ and that ‘job gains have slowed’, as well as noted that inflation has moved up, and remains ‘elevated’.
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed Fed Funds Rate was projected for 2025 at 3.625% (exp. 3.875%, prev. 3.875%), 2026 at 3.375% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.625%), 2027 at 3.125% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.375%), 2028 at 3.125% (exp. 3.125%) and the Longer run at 3.00% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.00%). Furthermore, this year’s unemployment rate forecast, PCE and core PCE were unchanged; for next year, unemployment was revised lower, while PCE and core PCE were raised.
PRESS CONFERENCE
Fed Chair Powell (post-meeting statement) said inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated, while a moderation in GDP growth largely reflects a consumer spending slowdown, and the balance of risks has shifted, although he added that the Fed is well-positioned to respond in a timely way. Powell also said that payroll job gains have slowed significantly, reflecting lower immigration and lower participation.
Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) said they welcomed new Committee member Miran, while the Committee is united in pursuing dual mandate goals, and is strongly committed to the independence of the Fed. Powell said it is possible that tariffs are a reason for some slowing in the labour market, as well as noted that over this year, policy has been at a restrictive level, and can no longer say the labour market is solid. Powell also noted that risks are moving toward equality, and the change in balance of risks suggests a need to move in the direction of neutral. Powell stated there was no widespread support for a 50bps cut today and he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates, while he added the Fed was right to wait. Powell commented we could think of the cut as a risk management cut and they need to remain fully committed to restoring 2% inflation, and at the same time, need to weigh risks to the two Fed goals, while he added that risks of higher inflation are less than in April and that they are in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and are going to be looking at the data, as well as stated that markets are pricing in a rate path, though not blessing that path.
REACTION
Markets saw an initial dovish reaction to the statement followed by a hawkish reversal heading into and during Chair Powell’s press conference. (More details below)
Markets price in ~44bps worth of cuts in through year end vs ~41bps (excluding yesterday’s cut) pre-Fed.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed with two-way action seen following the FOMC, SEPs and Fed Chair Powell’s presser. An initial dovish reaction was seen after the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, which was accompanied by dovish SEPs, as 50bps of further rate reduction is now seen in 2025, against the prior, and expected, 25bps of additional cuts. Do note, it was a tight call as 10/19 saw 50bps (or more) of cuts, while the other 9 saw 25bps (or less). The Fed also adjusted its guidance to signal a clearer path of easing ahead. In reaction, the Dollar was sold while Equities and Treasuries saw upside; however, the moves had started to pare as participants awaited the Powell presser. In the press conference, he was notably more hawkish than the statement and SEPs implied, which saw these moves reversed. The Fed Chair said he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates, and that “you could think of the cut as a risk management cut”, and that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting approach.
SPX -0.10% at 6,600, NDX -0.21% at 24,224, DJI +0.57% at 46,018, RUT +0.18% at 2,407.
China is reportedly dropping the Google (GOOG) antitrust probe during US trade talks, according to FT.
US House China Panel Chair said he’s concerned regarding the TikTok deal.
Brazilian President Lula said he has no relationship with US President Trump, while he described US tariffs as ’eminently political’ and said US consumers would be facing higher prices for Brazilian goods as a result, according to a BBC interview. It was also reported that Lula signed an executive order that exempts some data centre equipment from federal taxes.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US House cleared the procedural hurdle for a floor vote this week on the stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown.
US President Trump’s administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers, according to FT citing US Agricultural Secretary Rollins.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy reaction to the FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25bps, as expected, and just about signalled two further rate cuts this year, although Fed Chair Powell provided some hawkish-leaning comments during the presser.
ASX 200 declined with underperformance in energy as Santos shares suffered a double-digit percentage drop after the XRG consortium abandoned its USD 18.7bln takeover bid, while sentiment was also not helped by a surprise contraction in employment data.
Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 45k level and printed a fresh all-time high amid currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing machinery orders, while the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting where it is widely anticipated to remain on pause.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with continued tech strength seen after China’s CAC reportedly informed firms such as Alibaba and ByteDance to terminate their testing and orders of NVIDIA’s RTX Pro 6000D, in order to focus on China’s domestic semiconductor industry, while Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival the AI darling. Nonetheless, the Hong Kong benchmark faded early gains despite the HKMA cutting rates in lockstep with the Fed, with a pullback seen after it briefly breached the 27,000 level for the first time in four years.
US equity futures gradually edged higher overnight after the dust settled from the dovish FOMC and hawkish presser (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.7%).
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
FX
DXY ultimately strengthened in the aftermath of the FOMC with initial selling seen in reaction to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25bps, which was as expected, and as the SEPs showed projections for two more cuts this year. However, the dollar rebounded during the post-meeting press conference, where Powell provided hawkish-leaning comments in which he noted that he feels they don’t need to move quickly on rates and argued the need for further data to ensure higher inflation from tariffs is a one-time rise, while he called the cut a risk management cut amid labour market concerns and noted a meeting-by-meeting situation.
EUR/USD took a breather after recent fluctuations, with two-way price action seen during US trade as all focus was centred on the Fed decision and presser.
GBP/USD faded the knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC and reverted to sub-1.3700 territory, while attention turns to the BoE.
USD/JPY swung between gains and losses in reaction to the Fed, with USD/JPY eventually reclaiming the 147.00 status, while the Japanese currency was not helped by disappointing Machinery Orders, and the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.
Antipodeans retreated with AUD/USD briefly pressured after disappointing jobs data which showed a surprise decline in headline Employment Change, while NZD/USD underperformed following weak GDP data for Q2 in which the economy contracted by 0.6% Y/Y (exp. 0.0%) and resulted in money markets fully pricing a cut at the RBNZ meeting in October with an off chance for an oversized 50bps reduction.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1085 vs exp. 7.1113 (Prev. 7.1013).
Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB removed the reference to the continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle and said it will remain vigilant, while it will evaluate whether maintaining the interest rate at its current level for a very prolonged period will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target. Furthermore, it stated that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, and it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures marginally rebounded off the prior day’s lows after declining post-FOMC as the initial dovish reaction to the decision and dot plots was counterbalanced by a hawkish presser, although prices have since found a floor around 113.00.
Bund futures languished beneath the 129.00 level following recent fluctuations and supply, while the data calendar for Europe is light today although there are several ECB speakers scheduled, including Lagarde, de Guindos, Nagel & Schnabel.
10yr JGB futures followed suit to the subdued performance in global counterparts as the BoJ kicks off its 2-day policy meeting.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were subdued after declining yesterday in a choppy fashion, despite the larger-than-expected draw in EIA crude stockpiles.
Peru’s President signed a modification contract, allowing Chevron (CVX) and Westlawn’s formal entry into Peru.
Spot gold was contained after ultimately retreating as the dollar strengthened due to Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the post-FOMC presser.
Copper futures struggled for direction following the mixed reaction to the Fed announcement and press conference.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin rallied overnight with upward momentum picking up after climbing back above the USD 117k level.
US SEC voted to approve generic listing standards for new crypto ETFs, which clears the way for a flood of new ETFs.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its base rate by 25bps to 4.50%, as expected, while HKMA Chief Executive Yue said the interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the property market and the economy.
Huawei unveiled its new AI chip tech to rival NVIDIA (NVDA), with the Co. to launch its Ascend 950PR chips during Q1 2026 and plans new AI chips through 2028, while Huawei’s Vice Chairman said the Co. will launch Taishan 950 SuperPod for general-purpose computing in Q2 2026.
Japan is to revise investment rules for startups to woo foreign capital, according to Nikkei.
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis announced the appointment of Haley Gourley to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) -4.6% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. 3.0%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jul) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 7.6%)
Australian Employment (Aug) -5.4k vs. Exp. 21.5k (Prev. 24.5k, Rev. 26.5k)
Australian Full Time Employment (Aug) -40.9k (Prev. 60.5k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
Australian Participation Rate (Aug) 66.8% vs. Exp. 67.0% (Prev. 67.0%)
New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ SA (Q2) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.9%)
New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY SA (Q2) -0.6% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.7%, Rev. -0.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel Secretary of State Dermer was scheduled to meet with White House envoy Witkoff in London last night to discuss the possibility of renewing negotiations on a comprehensive deal for the release of all hostages and an end to the war, via Axios’ Ravid citing sources. Furthermore, Qatari officials are also in London and will likely hold separate meetings with the US envoy.
Syrian President al- Sharaa told reporters that security talks with Israel could lead to results in the “coming days” and if a security pact succeeds, “other agreements” could be reached but “peace, normalisation” is not currently on the table, while he added there is no pressure on Damascus to reach a deal with Israel from Washington.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia continues to strike civilian targets, hitting energy infrastructure and railway facilities.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK talks to join EU defence fund reportedly stalled over the participation fee, according to FT.
ECB’s Nagel said they are well advised to remain cautious given the uncertainties, and its approach of making decisions based on data and on a meeting-by-meeting basis has proven successful. Nagel added that with the current monetary policy stance, the ECB are well positioned to respond to unexpected changes.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA/USA
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
German State Media Have Systematically Slandered Charlie Kirk Since His Assassination
She is known to millions of Germans as the anchor for the ZDF public news programme heute (“today”).
The day after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Hayali glossed the story by conceding that “there is no justification for those groups celebrating [Kirk’s] death,” before deploring without any specific reference or citation “his often abhorrent, racist, sexist and misanthropic statements.” She proceeded to call Kirk a “radical religious conspiracy theorist” who nevertheless “struck a chord with many people,” given his large following and his “well-attended” events.
Later, Hayali appeared on a state media podcast, where she again with no evidence attacked Kirk as “too radical, too racist, misanthropic and misogynistic” and “simply inhumane.” She said that while “violence cannot be a solution,” “you don’t have to feel sympathy or pity” in connection to his violent death. Instead of offering condolences or regret for his murder, she advised that it would be better to “just shut up for a moment and perhaps not say anything at all.”
He is the Washington D.C. correspondent also for the state media broadcaster ZDF, and he is routinely presented to the German public as an expert on all things American.
Theveßen: [Kirk] has very, very strong right-wing convictions. Let me give you a few examples. For example, he said that homosexuals should be stoned to death (…). He said that black people are taking jobs away from white people because of the policies of the Democrats in recent years. He said that if you’re sitting in an aeroplane with a black pilot, you should be afraid.
Lanz: Have I understood you correctly, he said homosexuals should be stoned?
Theveßen: Yes, of course he’s referring to the Bible, when he says that Christianity should be taken literally. He’s not applied this to modern times, which is actually, um, largely, well of course. But you can say these are racist statements, these are anti-minority statements, and it’s also true, clearly, he belongs to the right-wing radicals in the USA…
Were Charlie Kirk still alive, he could request that charges be brought against Theveßen for slander, and his widow could probably still file a complaint under section 189 of the German criminal code, which prohibits “Defiling the memory of the dead.” Of course, nobody thinks this will happen, which is why Theveßen has decided to trifle with the truth in this case.
In response to inquiries from BILD, Theveßen said that he “regrets not having been more detailed,” but naturally he stopped short of apologising. After I and others brought Theveßen’s remarks to the attention of the U.S. State Department (along with another podcast appearance in which Theveßen implied that Stephen Miller was a neo-Nazi), Richard Grenell called for authorities to revoke his work visa …
… and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau replied with this ominous image:
Mysteriously, the ordinarily voluble Theveßen has gone silent.
Among other things, the two women discussed Charlie Kirk’s assassination, at which point this exchange occurred:
Miosga: Let’s also talk about what happened this week. In the US, ultra-right activist and Trump supporter Charlie Kirk was shot dead this week. Afterwards, your personal assistant posted a so-called meme, a photo with the caption. Let’s take a look …
Miosga: He then deleted this post, saying that right-wing extremists had put it in the wrong context. Did he tell you what the proper context was?
Reichinnek: On the very same day, there was another school massacre.1 And that was a very cynical way – but unfortunately also a very fitting way – to say, with this school massacre, you just move past it.
But I thought it was really good that you also described [Kirk] as ultra-right-wing, because others call him a “right-wing conservative” and that’s simply not true. He was a white supremacist, he was against the right to [sex/gender] self-determination. He said he would force his ten-year-old daughter to give birth were she to be raped. He is a racist.
So these statements he makes are really extreme. And I think you should never rejoice over anyone’s death. But you also don’t have to feel pity or respect for a person like this … Kirk, who was shot, said that some casualties are simply something we have to endure for the freedom to bear arms.
And [my aide] used this meme satirically, to point out that this focus [on political violence] is completely absent when it comes to other areas. For example, it was absent in the case of the murdered Democrats. … And I’m always very surprised that it is precisely this ultra-right-wing nationalist who is now being mourned so widely. I’m rather annoyed that the Junge Union [the youth wing of the CDU], for example, posted their condolences, when you consider what kind of person Kirk was. They didn’t do that for the murdered Democrats a while ago. So that’s also a question that needs to be asked.
Miosga: But he was murdered.
Reichinnek: Yes, by another Republican. And that’s problematic.
Miosga: And you’re surprised that people want to mourn someone who was murdered?
Reichinnek: I don’t know if this is the kind of person you would say was such a good person and just a right-wing conservative. No, he was very problematic. And as I said, you have to be aware of whom you’re platforming.
Neither Miosga nor Reichinnek have issued any clarifications or corrections, nor have they apologised.
I originally planned a much broader piece on the reaction to Kirk’s assassination, but the loathsome celebrations of social media activists are now well-trodden territory, so I have confined myself here only to the most mainstream, accepted, and establishment-friendly press personalities and media outlets in Germany.
We have before us here a systematic campaign, too coordinated and consistent to be an accident. The aim of this campaign is twofold. On the hand, our press hopes to portray Kirk as an unhinged and dangerous fascist, but to stop just short of blaming him for his own death – the sin for which MSNBC fired their “analyst” Matthew Dowd. On the other hand, they want to cast his assassination as very far from regrettable, while leaving any open celebration to the foul activist circles in their milieu.
Before 10 September, most Germans had never heard of Charlie Kirk, and so there was no reason for our press to denounce his politics and lie about him in this way. They could’ve reported this story much differently – perhaps as yet another crazy campus shooting in the gun-crazed United States (a favourite if tiresome trope of German media elites, however inapplicable in this case), or simply as the regrettable murder of a prominent American activist with connections to the MAGA movement.
Instead they have chosen the path of deceit and slander, because they are hysterical and desperate lunatics who have cultivated a political discourse that is so deranged as to be nearly beyond comprehension. If this were a German story about the murder of a prominent AfD activist, our journalists would report on it as sparingly as possible and condemn the AfD for playing the victim, while activists would stage a new round of demonstrations “against the right.” But this is an American story, and because the headlines from the United States have made Kirk’s assassination unavoidable, they have instead chosen this shameful path. They think they can get away with it, because German journalism is a highly insular and incestuous world, and language barriers ordinarily prevent lies of this nature from traveling very far beyond our own borders.
Some media outlets described Charlie Kirk as a conservative. Unfortunately, that’s pretty stupid. Many true conservatives still haven’t realised that they would be the first victims of extremists like Kirk. These world-weary conservatives come across as people who probably would’ve cried if Stauffenberg’s assassination plot had succeeded. Their argument is that the victim was someone who inspired young people; and besides, Kirk at least discussed things with his opponents, so he can’t have been a right-wing extremist. But that’s exactly why he is. Because extremists discuss things too. By pretending to talk to those they disagree with and spouting the same old tired arguments, they can then present themselves as champions of freedom of expression.
So, Kirk is Hitler, his assassin is a successful Claus von Stauffenberg, who has saved these tiresome “conservatives” from being Kirk’s “first victims.” All this nonsense just openly propagated by a German state media broadcasting operation.
In a 7-2 decision, BoE chose to hold rates steady, with long-term doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voting for a cut.
It will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.
Quantitative tightening will slow from £100 billion a year to £70 billion, and the Bank will skew those sales to shorter-dated maturities.
The BOE’s inflation expectations for the year are broadly unchanged, and it noted slightly better-than-expected growth in the second quarter, but said the economy remains subdued.
The market reaction has been fairly muted.
The Bank of England held its key interest rate steady Thursday (as widely expected), just a day after the Fed cut borrowing costs for the first time in nine months.
Policymakers have lowered rates five times since August 2024, cutting at three-month intervals.
At the central bank’s last meeting two rounds of voting were required for the first time since the Monetary Policy Committee was launched 28 years ago, with MPC member Alan Taylor switching his vote to break a deadlock in favor of a quarter-point cut.
This time around, seven of the MPC’s nine members voted to hold rates steady, while two voted to cut borrowing costs by a quarter of a point.
will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.
The BoE revealed that it will reduce its Asset Purchase Facility (APF) by a total £70 bn in the year October 2025 to September 2026 from a total £100 bn in the year just ending.
Of that, £53 bn will be through passive run-off (£87 bn this year) and £17 bn will be in active sales (£9.3 bn this year).
There was a three-way split on QT with Pill preferring the maintain the current pace of £100 bn/year (and hence a much faster pace of active sales).
Mann wanted a slower pace of £62 bn, which would have left active sales the same in the coming year as last.
As Bloomberg’s Jacob Reid reports, an important part of the QT announcement isn’t just the scale of the slowdown — it’s their decision to sell even fewer longer-dated gilts than other maturities, in a change of previous policy.
About 20% of the of the required sales will be bonds with maturities of more than 20 years, with the remainder split evenly between short- and medium-term debt.
It mirrors the government, which is also selling fewer long-dated bonds, after the 30-year yield spiked to a three-decade high, and demand for such securities has waned from traditional buyers such as pension funds.
Governor Andrew Bailey said the new sales profile would “minimise the impact on gilt market conditions.”
The bank also noted that “structural changes” in the bond market had reduced demand for long-term debt which “could pose a risk that QT would have a greater impact on market functioning than previously.”
“This is a pragmatic decision from policymakers, which should help alleviate some modest pressure at the long-end of the curve,” said Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone in London.
The market reaction is largely muted for now with cable falling modestly on the statement. The FTSE 100 has ticked up from a lunchtime low, and gilt yields are ever so slightly down at the shorter end of the curve. Traders have slightly boosted easing bets.
The guidance from the BoE remains intact – interest rates are likely to drop further, but Governor Bailey said the moves would need to be made “gradually and carefully”.
The BoE said it remained focused on squeezing out existing and emerging inflation.
UBS notes that wage growth remains a key problem for the Bank of England:
The BoE’s base case is that UK wage growth will slow down, and from there, services sector inflation will slow. But it isn’t certain how long that process will take. Further, the BoE is concerned that the recent increase of inflation and the potential it rises further in September will actually put some upward pressure on wages. On top of that, it raised the prospect of higher food prices keeping headline inflation upwards.
In other words, while the core view is that wages and hence inflation will slow, there is a significant risk that assumption is wrong and quite the reverse happens with a low-level price/wage spiral occurring.
The broad view from the Committee was: “In general, upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures remained prominent in the Committee’s assessment.”
The BoE noted that the labour market had loosened, but it wasn’t sure that sufficient slack had opened to mitigate inflationary pressures.
Finally, The BoE notes that trade policy uncertainty was estimated to have increased slightly since the Committee’s August meeting, albeit it was still significantly lower than earlier in the year. They note aspects of US tariff policies were facing domestic legal challenge in coming weeks.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /GAZA/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN/SUMMARY OF THE LAST 24 HR/TBN
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Targeted Hamas senior official appears in first interview since Doha attack
JerusalemPost
Targeted Hamas senior official appears in first interview since Doha attack
The IDF targeted a group of senior Hamas officials in Doha, Qatar last Tuesday.
Ghazi Hamad on Al Jazeera, September 17, 2025.(photo credit: Screenshot/AJA_Palestine)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF, MAARIV ONLINESEPTEMBER 17, 2025 19:36Updated: SEPTEMBER 17, 2025 20:37
Hamas political bureau member Ghazi Hamad, who was targeted in Israel’s attack on Doha, Qatar, last Tuesday, appeared in an interview for the first time since the attack on Al Jazeera.
“We are not the only target; the entire nation is,” Hamed said. “Israel has no red lines. Netanyahu talks about changing the face of the Middle East, and that requires an Arab response.”
Hamed described the events surrounding the reported assassination attempt, which he said took place shortly after a meeting to discuss a US proposal aimed at ending the war.
“We were sitting to discuss the American proposal to end the war,” he said. “Less than an hour later, we heard explosions and immediately understood it was an assassination attempt. As residents of Gaza, we recognize those sounds. We tried to flee as quickly as possible, and we succeeded.”
He criticized the role of American mediators during recent negotiations.
Ghazi Hamad (R), member of Hamas Political Office, delivers remarks on the Israel-Hamas war, next to Ahmed Abd al-Hadi (L), Hamas’s representative in Lebanon, during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, October 28, 2023; illustrative. (credit: REUTERS/AMR ALFIKY)
“Our experience with the American mediator was bitter, and there was no credibility on the American side because they withdrew from their proposals,” he said.
On the issue of Israeli hostages held in Gaza, Hamed emphasized that Hamas’s actions were guided by internal values.
“We treat the prisoners according to our values despite the massacres against our people,” he said. “Those putting them at risk are the occupiers themselves.”
Hamas brought Palestinian statehood back to the world agenda with Oct. 7
Hamad boasted of the role that the terror group’s October 7 massacre played in bringing the issue of Palestinian statehood back to the international agenda, in another Al Jazeera interview at the beginning of August.
He also criticized the Palestinian Authority and the international community, claiming that interest in Palestinian statehood and the “fate of Palestinians” was only achieved through the terror group’s “resistance and the blow we dealt to Israel.”
“Without our weapons, no one would be looking in our direction,” Hamad said during that interview.
The IDF and the Shin Bet attempted to assassinate Hamas’s leadership in Doha, Qatar, on September 9th.
Key targets in the strike were Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashaal, and Zaher Jabarin.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
This will probably help Israel avoid booby traps” huge explosive laden roberts that can wipe out a city block
(JerusalemPost)
Explosive-Laden Robots Pour Into Gaza City: ‘More Devastating Than Airstrikes’
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Wednesday, “We have poured a lot of money into this war. We have to see how we are dividing up the land in percentages” amid the ongoing Gaza military operation. Importantly, he further described “the demolition” of Gaza City as “the first stage in the city’s renewal, we have already done. Now we just need to build.”
But how does Israel’s military plan to do this? First, as we’ve detailed before, the IDF is utilizing airstrikes involving powerful missiles hitting the bases of high-rise buildings in order to collapse them in their own footprint. But for other buildings and structures in tightly-packed urban areas, there’s increased reliance on explosive-laden robots, or something that might look straight out of Terminator 2 and Skynet.
Walla news outlet says “unprecedented” number of explosive-laden, remote-controlled vehicles are being prepared to invade Gaza City alongside the ground infantry troops.
The Israeli military commonly refers to them as “suicide APCs” – and they are capable of being driven deep into urban environments before causing huge explosions.
They’ve been able to cause ‘mega-blasts’ so powerful that in some instances they can be heard as far away as central Israel. Palestinians have described “earth-shaking” explosions, with one eyewitness recently telling Middle East Eye that “they are far more devastating than air strikes.”
Gaza’s Government Media Office has said over one hundred of these explosive robots have been used in about the past month alone. Hundreds of residential units and small business buildings have been destroyed.
Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor details the following on how large the explosives can get:
Each of these robots is loaded with highly explosive materials, sometimes weighing up to seven tonnes, and is directed to detonate in Jabalia al-Balad and Jabalia al-Nazla north of Gaza City; the Zeitoun, al-Sabra, al-Shuja’iyya, and al-Tuffah neighbourhoods south and east of Gaza City; as well as the al-Saftawi and Abu Iskandar areas northwest of Gaza City.
The unprecedented pace of destruction of residential neighborhoods in Gaza City using explosive-laden robots indicates Israel’s determination to wipe the city off the map. At the current rate, the rest of the city could be destroyed within two months, a timeline that may shorten further given the Israeli army’s massive firepower and the absence of any pressure to halt its crimes against Palestinians.
Often it is outdated M113 armored personnel carriers that are turned into autonomous vehicles and strapped with the large explosives. The fact that they are modified personnel carriers means that they can carry a very large payload.
🚨Horrifying footage captures the very moment an Israeli explosive-laden robot detonates, leveling an entire residential block in Jabalia, northern Gaza. pic.twitter.com/UKqBqmKwhO
It was only as recently as 2024 that these suicide robots were observed operating and carry out destruction on the Gaza battlefield. Israeli ground troops have been subject of ambushes by well-armed Hamas militants who can swiftly emerge from Gaza’s underground tunnel network. Sending robots to clear areas ahead of time is a tactic Israel’s infantry increasingly relies on.
end
ISRAEL VS SYRIA
this may be good for Israel if they get a good deal
(Times of Israel)
Syria’s Sharaa: Security pact talks with Israel could yield results ‘in coming days’
‘It’s a difficult case — you have negotiations between a Damascene and a Jew,’ Syrian leader says of US-mediated negotiations while ruling out discussions on Golan as premature
A handout picture released by the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) shows Syria’s President Ahmad Al-Sharaa meeting with a US delegation lead by the new head of the US military’s Central Command in the Syrian capital Damascus on September 12, 2025.(SANA/AFP)
DAMASCUS, Syria — Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said on Wednesday that ongoing negotiations with Israel to reach a security pact could lead to results “in the coming days.”
He told reporters in Damascus the security pact was a “necessity” and that it would need to respect Syria’s airspace and territorial unity and be monitored by the United Nations.
Syria and Israel are in talks to reach an agreement that Damascus hopes will secure a halt to Israeli airstrikes and the withdrawal of Israeli troops who have pushed into southern Syria, with the sides holding a US-brokered meeting in London on Wednesday that the Axios news site said lasted five hours.
According to the report, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani presented Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer with Syria’s response to an Israeli proposal for the security arrangement.
Reuters reported earlier this week that Washington was pressuring Syria to reach a deal before world leaders gather next week for the UN General Assembly in New York.
But Sharaa, in a briefing with journalists including Reuters ahead of his expected trip to New York to attend the meeting, denied the US was putting any pressure on Syria and said instead that it was playing a mediating role.
(L-R) Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, US special envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. (Collage/AFP)
He said Israel had carried out more than 1,000 strikes on Syria and conducted more than 400 ground incursions since December 8, when the rebel offensive he led toppled former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
Sharaa said Israel’s actions were contradicting the stated American policy of a stable and unified Syria, which he said was “very dangerous.”
He said Damascus was seeking a deal similar to a 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria that created a demilitarized zone between the two countries following the 1973 Yom Kippur War a year earlier.
He said Syria sought the withdrawal of Israeli troops but that Israel wanted to remain at strategic locations it seized after December 8, including the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. Israeli ministers have publicly said Israel intends to keep control of the sites.
Sharaa said if the security pact succeeds, other agreements could be reached. He did not provide details, but said a peace agreement or normalization deal like the US-mediated Abraham Accords, under which several Muslim-majority countries agreed to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel, was not currently on the table.
He also said it was too early to discuss the fate of the Golan Heights, much of which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War and latter extended sovereignty over, because it was “a big deal.”
Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on July 23, 2025 (Jalaa MAREY / AFP)
Reuters reported this week that Israel had ruled out handing back the strategic plateau, which Donald Trump unilaterally recognized as Israeli during his first term as US president.
“It’s a difficult case — you have negotiations between a Damascene and a Jew,” Sharaa told reporters, smiling.
Security pact derailed in July
Sharaa also said Syria and Israel had been just “four to five days” away from reaching the basis of a security pact in July, but that developments in the southern province of Sweida had derailed those discussions.
A man waves an Israeli flag during a demonstration by Druze in the southern Syrian city of Sweida calling for self-determination, August 16, 2025. (X screenshot)
Syrian troops were deployed to Sweida in July to quell fighting between Druze armed factions and Bedouin fighters. But the violence worsened, with Syrian forces accused of execution-style killings and Israel striking southern Syria, the defense ministry in Damascus and near the presidential palace.
Sharaa on Wednesday described the strikes near the presidential palace as “not a message, but a declaration of war,” and said Syria had still refrained from responding militarily to preserve the negotiations.
END
Israel lacks exact hostage locations inside Gaza city
Despite public claims of caution, Israeli officials admit to families they do not know where hostages are held, raising concerns about ongoing operations.
A drone view of the words “war kills hostages” displayed on the beach in front of the U.S. consulate by activists supporting the release of all hostages and ending the war, in Tel Aviv, Israel, September 17, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/AVIV ATLAS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 18, 2025 10:43
Israeli security officials have privately informed the families of hostages that they do not have specific information on the hostages’ current locations, according to a report published by N12 on Wednesday evening.
This admission contrasts with recent public assurances from both political and military leaders, who have emphasized that the military campaign in Gaza is being conducted carefully in areas thought to contain hostages. Families who took part in the private meeting said they were told a different and far more uncertain picture.
According to N12, a senior defense official stated during the meeting that the army cannot confirm where the hostages are.
“We do not know where the hostages are being held,” the official reportedly said. “Our assessment, based on accounts from survivors, is that they are likely in certain areas. However, we do not have precise information. We believe the hostages are being moved frequently, both above ground and through tunnels. Some are likely still in Gaza, including in areas where the IDF is currently operating.”
One family member asked how the military intended to avoid harming hostages during the ongoing operation without knowing exactly where they were. The official replied that although the situation is far from perfect, the IDF is making every effort to protect the hostages.
People lay on the ground as part of an installation during a rally demanding the immediate release of the hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, and the end of war in Gaza, in Jerusalem September 17, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/DEDI HAYUN)
After the meeting, several relatives told N12 that the message conveyed privately was in sharp contrast to what officials are saying in public. They said the lack of concrete intelligence increases the danger to their loved ones. Families also raised concerns that the hostages might be transferred again, as has already occurred. A recent Hamas video appeared to show hostages in a new location.
Risks remain of Hamas using hostages as human shields
The report from N12 comes amid rising international attention to the hostage issue. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump posted a message on social media expressing concern that Hamas was relocating hostages to shield them from Israeli military operations. “This is a human atrocity,” Trump wrote. “Release all the hostages now.”
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir also addressed the complexity of the current operation. Speaking from Gaza City, he said the military had presented all possible risks and outcomes to the cabinet before launching Operation Gideon’s Chariots II.
“It is my responsibility as chief of staff to outline the full range of security implications before any decision is made,” Halevi said.
According to N12, Zamir’s remarks have added to tensions between the government and the military over the handling of operations in areas where hostages may still be present.
end
ISRAEL WEST BANK
2 Israelis killed by knifeman driving Gaza-bound aid truck at West Bank-Jordan crossing
Assailant stabbed victims after gun jammed while trying to open fire, initial probe finds * Troops encircling nearby Jericho following attack * AG: Ministers’ threats to defy Supreme Court ‘a call for the crushing of democracy’
IDF troops operate at the scene of an attack at Allenby Crossing between Jordan and the West Bank, September 18, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
The IDF in a statement confirms that the assailant who carried out the deadly attack at Allenby Crossing arrived in a truck from Jordan that was carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
“Security forces neutralized the terrorist at the scene,” the military says.
The IDF adds that troops are carrying out scans in the area and encircling the nearby West Bank city of Jericho.
Two Israelis were killed in the attack.
According to Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, since the beginning of the war, nearly 10,000 trucks of aid, or over 144,000 tons, have been transferred to the Gaza Strip from Jordan using land crossings with Israel and the West Bank. The total represents some 7 percent of all aid deliveries.
The Jordanian assailant who carried out the deadly attack at Allenby Crossing between Jordan and the West Bank stabbed the two victims, according to a preliminary investigation by the military.
According to the initial probe, the assailant, who was driving a truck carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, opened fire with a handgun at people at the crossing before the truck had been inspected by Israeli authorities.
The attacker then got out of the truck. After his gun apparently jammed, he began to stab the two victims. They were pronounced dead by medics at the scene.
Security guards at the crossing opened fire on the assailant, killing him.
Despite some reports in Hebrew media, the attacker is not believed to be a Jordanian soldier, Israeli defense officials say.
END
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
Israel now going after Hezbollah in South Lebanon
September 18, 11:56 PM
IDF begins wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
“We issue an urgent warning to residents of the buildings marked in red on the attached maps, as well as nearby buildings in the following villages: Mays al-Jabal; ️Kafr Tibnit; and Dibbine,” the statement said.
“You are in buildings being used by the terrorist organization Hezbollah. For your safety, you must immediately evacuate these buildings and the nearby buildings and move at least 500 meters away,” the military added.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
“We’d Kick Russia’s Ass”: Trump’s Special Envoy To Ukraine Says Moscow Is Losing The War, Would Collapse Without China
Assistant to U.S. President Donald Trump and Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg had a lot to say on Russia’s famed might and those recent drone incursions into NATO airspace.
Claiming 19 incursions cannot be an accident, Trump’s envoy said Vladimir Putin “is acting purposefully, he’s sending a signal, and he wants to hear a response,” reports Ukrainska Pravda.
“Ukraine will not lose this war. Ukrainians have a moral superiority over Russia, that’s obvious,” Kellogg also noted, specifically praising Ukraine’s advanced drone production capabilities.
As to Russia, he said during the interview at the YES Annual Meeting 2025, “They talk a big game,” adding that Putin often likes to tout that Russia is a nuclear power, but other Western powers have nuclear weapons too.
On the topic of Russian superiority, “We’d kick their ass (…) They’re not as good as Putin says they are.” He also credits Ukraine with helping curb Moscow’s military might.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine also confirmed to U.S. President Trump that Russia is “not winning” the war, according to Kellog.
“If he was winning, he’d be in Kyiv,” Kellog added, again giving credit to Ukraine for slashing Russia’s military power.
Poting on X, Kellog said, “The vision of our country is to see a halt to the death and destruction and restore peace and stability in Europe. Promoting peace over endless wars and proxy conflicts abroad is a defining feature of the America First leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.”
Kellogg also spoke about Russia’s total dependence on China.
“Russia has now become China’s junior partner. At present, we can say that China has both an economic advantage over Russia and a military advantage, and even historically. I will say more – if China completely cut off its aid to Russia, – this war would end tomorrow,” Kellogg claims.
Urging more aggressive action, including further sanctions, against Putin, Trump’s envoy maintained that Russia does not have “the capacity that they had that they could march towards Berlin or anywhere else.”
Russia Pushes For Resumption Of Direct Flights With US In Bilateral Talks
, 2025 – 11:00 PM
First, earlier this month saw the Trump administration lift some sanctions on Belarus in a surprise move (part of a prisoner return deal) – which opens national airline Belavia to international routes, including to the US – and now Moscow has announced there could be resumption of direct flights with the United States. Next, Pentagon observers showed up in Belarus to observe joint exercises with Russia, which was also a clear sign of improving Washington-Moscow relations.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told a press briefing Wednesday, “For our part, today, on the bilateral track with the United States, we are focused, in particular, on the task of resuming direct flights. Unfortunately, there is no proper response from the American side yet. We are making additional efforts, our relevant departments and structures are involved in this work.”
He added, “We hope that by the time the format that has been called ‘bilateral consultations on irritants’ in recent months is resumed, a more constructive attitude will be formed in Washington and we will make real progress in resolving this issue,” Ryabkov added.
This is happening even as direct Russia-Ukraine talks have clearly stalled, and there’s no forward momentum. But things are still happening directly between the US and Russia, as TASS details:
Russia’s delegation to the first and second rounds of consultations was led by Moscow’s Ambassador to Washington Alexander Darchiev, while Washington’s delegation was headed by US Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Sonata Coulter.
The first meeting, which took place behind closed doors, lasted for over six hours, and the second round of talks lasted for five hours and a half.
Russia’s aviation sector has been under sweeping US and EU sanctions as a result of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This has unleashed an ongoing crisis for Russian carriers, who are in constant need of parts and proper up-to-date mechanics.
The growing trend of aviation parts smuggling was documented in US state-funded sources earlier this year as follows:
On February 13, two weeks before Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reached the three-year mark, the US Department of Justice announced it had arrested three people linked to an Ohio company on charges of exporting $2 million worth of civilian aircraft parts and components to Russia in circumvention of US export laws.
It was at least the fifth time in the past three years that the United States has accused an individual or larger entity of involvement in a scheme to illegally ship aircraft parts to Russia. In the latest case, all three individuals were current and former employees of Flighttime Enterprises, a US subsidiary of a Russian aircraft parts supplier.
Like with most Western sanctions on ‘rogue’ states abroad, it is the common people who suffer most. For example, in late July 48 people aboard a passenger plane after it crashed in Russia’s Far East. The ageing plane was Soviet-era twin turboprop.
The same trend has been seen in Iran, which over the last decade has witnessed horrific aviation accidents, including the loss of a sitting president when his military helicopter crashed near Azerbaijan. Getting sanctions lifted on the aviation industry is likely a top priority of Russia’s when it comes to bilateral talks with the US.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
This hurts Russia quite a bit: 10 refiners have been hit by Ukrainian drones since early August
(zerohedge)
More Than 10 Russian Refineries Have Been Hit By Ukrainian Drones Since Early August
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 09:05 AM
Another day, another Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil facility. This time a major Gazprom oil and petrochemical facility in the republic of Bashkortostan was struck on Thursday.
“Two drones attacked the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat enterprise,” Bashkortostan regional head Radiy Khabirov stated on Telegram. He called it a “terrorist attack” and described that security guards opened fire on the drones while they were inbound, though there were no injuries in the attack.
Videos from the scene showed thick black smoke rising above the facility, as emergency crews responded to battle the blaze and assess the damage – which is uncertain.
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery is one of the country’s largest, ranked as Russia’s 10th-largest and processing around 10 million metric tons of oil annually, and a huge array of petroleum and chemical products. This isn’t the first time it was struck by drones in an attack, given an incident which happened in 2024.
At least ten separate Russian refineries have come under cross-border drone attack from Ukraine since only early August, which has served to reduce nation-wide refining output by nearly 20% – or roughly 1.1 million barrels per day – and wholesale oil prices in Russia have risen sharply.
Ukraine’s military and media have classified Russia’s refineries as essentially military targets, given they prop up funding of the armed forces as they execute Putin’s ‘special military operation’.
For example there was this early August statement from Ukrainian media:
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, with an estimated annual capacity of 6 million tons, was hit.
The plant, which has a capacity of 13.8 million tons per year, was previously struck by Ukrainian drones on Aug. 2, forcing two of its three main refining units to halt operations.
Ukraine’s military said the facility plays a role in supporting Russia’s armed forces.
This reveals a concerted effort to permanently damage the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war. Newsmax has previously observed that “The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices.”
Salavat oil refinery in Bashkortostan lies more than 800 miles from the Ukrainian border…
The report noted further, “Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions.”
Meanwhile, according to TASS on Thursday, “The Russian Finance Ministry is budgeting for a gradual decrease in dependence on oil and gas, with the oil cutoff price in the budget rule planned to fall to $55 per barrel by 2030, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the Moscow Financial Forum.”
Siluanov said, “In order to make finances sustainable, we propose and budget for a reduction in the budget’s dependence on various restrictions, be they price or volume, on oil and gas revenues.”
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Researchers Found Unvaccinated Children Healthier Than Vaccinated, Didn’t Publish Findings
Henry Ford Health System researchers carried out the study.
EPOCH TIMES
ZACH STIEBER
A nurse practitioner holds a vaccine in an undated file photograph. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Researchers from a large health care system in Michigan found that vaccinated children were more likely to develop a chronic health condition, but never published the findings, according to a copy of the study obtained by The Epoch Times.
Henry Ford Health System, whose employees carried out the study, said it was deficient.
Dr. Marcus Zervos, an infectious disease specialist at Henry Ford Health, and colleagues studied 18,468 children born between 2000 and 2016 who were enrolled in the health system’s insurance plan, drawing data from medical, clinical, and payer records and supplementing it with information from Michigan’s immunization registry.
After 10 years, 57 percent of the vaccinated children had a chronic health condition such as asthma, compared with just 17 percent of the unvaccinated children.
“This study found that exposure to vaccination was independently associated with an overall 2.5-fold increase in the likelihood of developing a chronic health condition, when compared to children unexposed to vaccination,” the authors wrote. “This association was primarily driven by asthma, atopic disease, eczema, autoimmune disease and neurodevelopmental disorders. This suggests that in certain children, exposure to vaccination may increase the likelihood of developing a chronic health condition, particularly for one of these conditions.”
The study was first reported by Aaron Siri, managing partner of law firm Siri & Glimstad, this month in his book “Vaccines, Amen: The Religion of Vaccines.”
Before receiving a copy of the study, The Epoch Times asked Zervos and his coauthors for a copy and questioned why it was never published.
Zervos responded to questions about the study by asking in an email, “Can you tell me what book this appeared in.” When told, he did not respond further.
Coauthors did not return inquiries.
A spokesperson for Henry Ford Health acknowledged that researchers there carried out the study.
“This report was not published because it did not meet the rigorous scientific standards we demand as a premier medical research institution,” a spokesperson for Henry Ford Health told The Epoch Times in an email. “Data has consistently shown vaccinations are a safe and effective way to protect children against potentially life-altering diseases.”
‘The Only Real Problem’
Siri, who has worked with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., represents a group called the Informed Consent Action Network. He and Del Bigtree, the group’s CEO, say they met with Zervos in 2017 and proposed that he compare the health of vaccinated and unvaccinated children.
They initially proposed obtaining data from a federal network called Vaccine Safety Datalink, but Zervos suggested utilizing the health data from Henry Ford Health, Siri wrote in his book.
Siri requested that the researchers publish the results of the study, regardless of what it showed.
“Dr. Zervos looked us right in the eyes and assured us that he was a man of integrity and would publish the results, whatever the finding,” Siri said.
Siri received a copy of the study in 2020. He and Bigtree say that Zervos and a coauthor told them that superiors at Henry Ford Health did not want it submitted for publication and that they were concerned they could lose their jobs if they submitted it.
“The only real problem with this study—and why it didn’t get submitted for publication—is that its findings did not fit the belief and the policy that ‘vaccines are safe,’” Siri said during a Senate hearing in Washington on Sept. 9. “Had it found vaccinated children were healthier, it no doubt would have been published immediately. But because it found the opposite, it was shoved in a drawer.”
Previous research comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated children has returned mixed results. A German study published in 2011, for instance, found that unvaccinated children were more likely to suffer diseases targeted by vaccines. An American study published in 2020 found that vaccinated children had higher odds of suffering from developmental delays, asthma, and ear infections in their first year of life.
Dr. Jake Scott, an infectious disease doctor at Stanford University’s School of Medicine, told the hearing that he reviewed the study and found it problematic. One issue was how vaccinated children visited doctors during the study period more often than unvaccinated children, according to Scott.
“When diagnoses require doctor visits, children seeing doctors more often will inevitably have more recorded conditions,” he said. “This is classic detection bias that inflates risk estimates without reflecting true health differences.”
However, according to Zervos and other researchers, even after unvaccinated children whose parents never took them to the doctor following birth were excluded, the vaccinated group still had an increased risk of developing a chronic health condition. They also analyzed the data at one, three, and five years following birth and found that the vaccinated children were still more likely to develop a chronic health condition.
“Therefore, our findings do not appear to be due to differential use of health resources,” they wrote.
The researchers added that their findings “cannot prove causality and warrant future investigation.”
The hearing was held by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), chairman of the panel, said during the hearing that the study was “high-quality” and “suspiciously withheld by the authors.”
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), its ranking member, questioned why it has taken five years following completion for the study to be disclosed to the public.
“My hope has always been that the scientists would publish it,” Siri said. “And we’ve tried to persuade them many, many times, so it could go through the normal, peer-review process.”
centered on an alleged client list that names those who were said to have participated in this activity.” does it make sense by Patel? raises more questions as makes no sense! word salad, legalese
Very interesting wriggle room answer by Patel and IMO again hurts POTUS Trump when these people play around with language and play games: “Patel responded, “Himself. There is no credible information, none. If there were I would bring the case yesterday that he trafficked to other individuals. And the information we have, again, is limited.”
Kennedy followed up, “So the answer is no one?”
The FBI director responded, “For the information that we have. In the case files”
I feel POTUS Trump is not in any of those files and has been smeared here and did not touch any under-aged girls but these types of answers create more questions…not a good answer by Patel. IMO. Not bullet-proofed, not surgical, not clean. Fact is that “Previous testimonies from Epstein’s victims have suggested they were trafficked for other individuals.” So, is Patel saying the girls who were victims, and are women today, are lying?
IMO this gamesmanship only hurts POTUS Trump and as I have stated I do not believe in any manner Trump interfered with any under-aged girls in this Epstein madness.
Kash Patel Says No ‘Credible’ Info Epstein Trafficked Young Women to Others
‘FBI Director Kash Patel told U.S. senators on Tuesday morning that there is “no credible information” in case files that Jeffrey Epstein trafficked young women to anyone other than himself.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The remarks came during a heated hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee, in which Republican Louisiana Senator John Kennedy asked Patel about his knowledge of the Epstein files.
“You’ve seen most of the files. Who if anyone did Epstein traffic these young women to, besides himself?” Kennedy asked Patel.
Patel responded, “Himself. There is no credible information, none. If there were I would bring the case yesterday that he trafficked to other individuals. And the information we have, again, is limited.”
Kennedy followed up, “So the answer is no one?”
The FBI director responded, “For the information that we have. In the case files.”‘
Trump messages now a 3rd boat blown apart by US military in Caribbean Sea…destined for USA. Right Honorable Prime Minister of Trinidad Madame Kamla Persad-Bissessar vows to help Trump; boom!
Praise for POTUS Trump! Thank you! For once a POTUS is handling business down in them there Caribbean waters!
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
NEWS ADDICTS
Friend Who Rode with Charlie Kirk to Hospital Speaks OutFrank Turek, Charlie’s close friend, mentor, and a man of God, shared a firsthand account of Charlie Kirk’s assassination.Turek described the tragic events during his “Cross Examined” podcast on Tuesday.On Stage With KirkTurek was on stage at Utah Valley University when the shot rang out.He initially thought the “pop” came from something nearby.Frank TurekOnly moments later did he realize it …READ THE FULL REPORT
Spirit Airlines Pilot Scolded for Flying Near Air Force OneA Spirit Airlines flight nearly collided with Air Force One on Wednesday.The close call occurred less than an hour after President Trump departed Washington, D.C.Air Traffic Control RecordingAn air traffic controller was heard yelling at the Spirit pilot.The controller accused the pilot of being distracted by an iPad.“Pay attention! Get off the iPad,” the controller shouted repeatedly.AIR FORCE ONE and …READ THE FULL REPORT
Photos: Melania Trump Stuns in Bold Yellow Gown at U.K. State BanquetFirst Lady Melania Trump dazzled in a designer gown during her visit to the UK.Her latest look at Windsor Palace was described as the crown jewel of her trip.State Dinner AppearanceMelania wore a bright yellow off-the-shoulder Carolina Herrera gown.The dress was cinched at the waist with a lilac belt.She paired the gown with dramatic emerald earrings.Her shoes were Manolo Blahnik …READ THE FULL REPORT
Suspect Arrested After Crashing Car Into FBI Field Office GateA man rammed his car into the front gate of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office early Wednesday.The suspect then fled the scene on foot, sparking a manhunt across the area.The AttackOfficials said the crash happened around 2:40 a.m. at the secure entrance.The car, a white Toyota sedan, smashed the reinforced gate beyond repair.The driver exited the vehicle and retrieved an …READ THE FULL REPORT
4 Republicans Join Dems to Block Resolution Censuring Omar Over Kirk CommentsThe House of Representatives voted Wednesday to table a resolution to censure Rep. Ilhan Omar.The resolution targeted her controversial remarks made after Charlie Kirk’s assassination.Vote BreakdownThe measure was blocked in a close 214 to 213 vote.Four Republicans joined Democrats in voting to table the censure.Those Republicans were Mike Flood, Tom McClintock, Jeff Hurd, and Cory Mills.A vote to table prevents …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
last few days news events of importance:
Fed-dling While “Rome” Churns
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 10:45 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate 25bp to 2.50% as expected, largely attributing its decision to softer CPI data, a loosening labour market, and a more optimistic inflation outlook given PM Carney’s decision to repeal retaliatory tariffs on US goods. We are forecasting another 25bp cut in October and see the terminal rate at 2.25%. However, the risk to our view is skewed in favour of two more cuts this year over none. (See here for our full report.)
The Fed decision was also in line with expectations with a 25bp cut to 4.00 to 4.25%. (See here for our report.) There had been speculation as to whether the meeting would be riddled with dissent, but it only stemmed from new joiner Miran’s call for a 50bp move. The key takeaway from the accompanying statement was that “the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate…downside risks to employment have risen”. That said, Powell stated the -911K change in payrolls through to March 2025 was “almost exactly” what the Fed had expected. That’s either a good forecast or convenient given the Fed didn’t look like it saw it coming.
Looking ahead, the ‘dot plot’ averages a Fed Fund rate of 3.6% by end-2025 and 3.4% by end-2026, -0.3 and -0.2 from June, respectively. However, one board member is forecasting a 2025 year-end implied rate of 2.88, which would suggest 50bps cuts at the October and December meetings. Some are speculating this may be Miran, but that cannot be proven. When pressed, Powell replied that “a wide range of views is natural in the current situation.” We now forecast another 25bp cut at the October 29 meeting, and still see a terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.00%.
In the press conference, Powell had to deal with a battery of more political questions: one wonders if this is going to be something we see more regularly.
Notably, Powell’s tone and the FOMC statement was initially interpreted as dovish, invoking a 9bp dip in 2-year Treasury yields and 6bp in the 10-year. However, 10s ended higher on the day along with the 5Y-5Y forward inflation swap, pointing to rising inflation expectations as the Fed cuts into a stagflationary-esque environment. In the FX market, pre-Fed, the FT noted, ‘Foreign investors in US assets rush for protection against swings in dollar’, with a “sharp increase in hedging” amid a “broad rethink on exposure” – but USD dipped then rallied.
This Fed-dling of course took place as ‘Rome’ churns, rather than burns. Indeed, aside from political drama in D.C., in geopolitics:
The EU is reportedly to explore using €170bn of Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine, and though some European capitals remain wary over a ‘reparation loans’ plan, the US is apparently also calling on the G-7 to do so. Recall the US took half of Afghanistan’s FX reserves in 2022 and some of Iraq’s in 2003, Iraq seized Kuwait’s in 1990, and the Nazis Czechoslovakia’s gold in the 1930s – but nothing has been done on this kind of scale before. It could jump start more discussion of diversification from the dollar and euro… but into what exactly?
That’s as US Senator Graham told Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil –“I hope and expect them to step up to the plate soon to help us end this bloodbath. If not, consequences should and will follow.”—while the Wall Street Journal, in ‘Putin’s Polish Drone Incursion and the China Factor’ asks “Is the war in Ukraine being prolonged primarily to serve Beijing’s interests?”
The EU set out plans for partnership with India on trade, technology, security, defence, and climate, also including the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). However, as The Hindu notes, “India’s military exercises with Russia and its continued purchase of Russian oil are seen in Brussels as potential obstacles to the deepening of the relationship with New Delhi.”
Moreover, if the EU strikes a deal with India, it likely presages a US-India deal alongside it, not only in tariff and transshipment terms, but due to the IMEEC. Indeed, with Trump and PM Modi exchanging warm public greetings as the latter turned 75, it once again seems to be when we see US tariffs on India lowered, not if.
In the Middle East, the EU proposed sanctions and the partial suspension of its trade deal with Israel; just as the latter announced the world’s first laser-based interception system, which could transform the economics of building the defensive shield Europe needs.
Moreover, as the Free Press describes ‘Why Trump Let Netanyahu Strike Hamas in Doha’ (“The US president and the Israeli prime minister have developed a good cop-bad cop routine”) Saudi Arabia signed a ‘strategic mutual defence’ pact with Pakistan, a sign of how rattled it was by the recent Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar. That underlines the urgency for the US to cement a broader Middle East geostrategic architecture like IMEEC; and that’s as Syria’s President Sharaa said security pact talks with Israel could yield results “in the coming days.”
In geoeconomics: China banned its tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips, as Beijing steps up its efforts to boost semiconductor independence; South Korean manufacturers outlined their plans to bolster U.S. shipbuilding (though the Hyundai plant in Georgia recently raided by ICE reportedly won’t see construction restart until 2026); and US tech giants urged Trump to push back on an Australian tax law they don’t like; and China is pushing for closer Southeast Asia trade links as it fends off US pressure.
In the specific geoeconomic of energy: Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc saw its $19bn bid for Santos fail, keeping a key energy firm in Aussie hands; the USTR is poised to tweak the looming penalty for carrying US LNG on Chinese-built ships as there aren’t enough alternative ships yet, and penalties would push up the price of its energy exports; and Bloomberg asks, ‘Why is China stockpiling so much oil?’ saying it’s “stirring conspiracy theories.” An understanding of statecraft would make clear this isn’t conspiratorial, just logical.
From a broader perspective, the ‘WTO chief finds hope in Trump’s trade disruption, sees chance for ‘reglobalization’ (SCMP). Okonjo-Iweala, acknowledging that global trade is “heavily dented”, nonetheless says the “opportunity is knocking at our door to do things differently”- yet didn’t supply any concrete answers on how to address the “supply imbalances” she admitted the global system currently produces.
From a national perspective — that applies in many places — former Bank of England chief economist Haldane says Labour must rethink its growth strategy “to curb the rise of the far right”, and left-behind communities need investment to stem the populist tide. He also didn’t supply any concrete answers as to how to do it: and his answers and the WTO’s need to join up, as laid out with iron logic by Pettis & Klein in ‘Trade Wars are Class Wars’.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Graham Threatens ‘Consequences’ On Hungary & Slovakia Over Russian Energy Purchases
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 04:40 PM
United States Senator Lindsey Graham has blasted Hungary and Slovakia over their ongoing purchases of Russian energy, warning they’ll face “consequences” if they don’t end their reliance.
The anti-Russia hawk from South Carolina said on social media that President Trump was “right to demand that Europe stop buying Russian oil.“ He admitted that while most of Europe has done so, it is “now virtually down to Hungary and Slovakia.“
“I hope and expect them to step up to the plate soon to help us end this bloodbath,” he said. “If not, consequences should and will follow.“
President Trump had last week urged all NATO countries to “stop buying oil from Russia” – saying he’ll only slap additional sanctions on Moscow once they had all done so.
As a reminder, Trump wrote Social Saturday morning, “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA.”
He described his words as a letter to America’s allies and to the world: “As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking,” he continued.
“China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip,” Trump’s ‘letter’ continued. He then made his position clear that tariffs on China would “be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR.”
Prior to February 2022 and the start of the current war, the European Union as a whole imported 45% of its natural gas from Russia. Additionally 27% of crude imports were sourced to Russia in pre-war times.
China and India are of course at this moment the two biggest importers of Russian oil, in that order, but what’s less well known is that NATO member Turkey is the third largest. Ironically, Turkey maintains the second largest military in NATO, next to the United States.
.@SecScottBessent: "We are prepared to increase pressure on Russia, but we need our European partners to follow us… If the U.S. and the EU can come in, do more sanctions, secondary tariffs on the countries that buy Russian oil, the Russian economy will be in full collapse." pic.twitter.com/fNfGiofCsr
Management professor Sylvain Charlebois says Canadian truckers are the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the state of the country’s economy.
Many of those working in the industry for decades say their trucking volume is getting lighter lately, the routes shorter, and their pay interval longer, according to the Dalhousie University professor. They are getting paid every 60 to 90 days, rather than every 30 days, which has occurred during previous economic downturns, Charlebois said.
“For many years, I’ve always believed that they’re able to foresee changes in economic cycles, and that they’re able to foresee exactly what’s going to happen with the economy,” Charlebois said in an interview with The Epoch Times.
“If you really want to know where the economy is headed, don’t ask an economist—ask a trucker,” Charlebois said on social media earlier this month. “I did, and they usually see the signs months before the data confirms it. What I heard isn’t good news for the Canadian economy.”
Ron Foxcroft, chairman and CEO of Hamilton-based trucking company Fluke Transportation Group, told The Epoch Times he agrees his industry is “the first barometer that sees the true economic future, whether it’s going up, or whether it’s going down.”
Foxcroft also confirmed that receivable payments have “slowed down” and trucking volume has declined by 10 percent in 2025. “We are in a very visible slowdown,” he said.
There are other signs pointing to worsening economic conditions in Canada, such as the country’s GDP falling by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of the year, or by 1.6 percent annualized, as well as unemployment rate reaching 7.1 percent in August. While the jump may not be too striking compared to the 6.6 percent seen in August 2024, recent job losses have been concentrated in full-time employment, while the offsetting gains have been in part-time positions.
Although these indicators paint a bleak picture of the economy, Canada is not technically in a recession.
A recession is generally defined by two consecutive quarters, or six months, of GDP shrinkage. Prior to the second-quarter contraction, Canada saw a GDP gain in the first quarter of 2025 preceded by five quarters of similar gains. That means Canadians will have to wait until Statistics Canada’s 2025 third-quarter GDP report, to be released in November, to find out whether the country is officially in a recession.
Economists say there are various ways to define a recession, and some say the typical one used in Canada has flaws.
According to Livio Di Matteo, an economics professor at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ont., the traditional measure of a recession is a lagging indicator.
“By the time the recession is declared, it will have been underway for some time,” he said.
Eric Miller of the Rideau Potomac Strategy Group says Canada’s economy is currently in a tough position because it is attempting to reduce reliance on the United States and find new markets for its products, while simultaneously attempting to reach a trade deal with that country.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announces five major projects in Edmonton on Sept. 11, 2025. The Canadian Press/Amber Bracken
“Canada is in transition. It may need another quarter of recession, but any transition process is painful and time-consuming, and that’s where we are,” said Miller, who is president and founder of the Washington, D.C.-based organization.
Richard Dias, an economic analyst with Halifax-based investment firm IceCap Asset Management, says that any definition of a recession is going to be “arbitrary” and that the official definition used by Canada is “a useful way of thinking about it.” However, Dias said he believes Canada has been in a per capita recession for the last three years, with higher immigration rates boosting GDP but failing to make Canadians richer on an individual basis.
Dias notes, however, that he would be “surprised” if the third quarter of 2025 has negative GDP growth because companies will have adjusted to U.S. tariffs and found new markets to export products.
A Slowing Economy
Statistics Canada’s Aug. 29 quarterly GDP report found that Canada’s GDP shrank by 1.6 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, due mostly to a reduction in exports and business investment because of U.S. tariffs. The previous quarter saw Canada’s GDP rise by 0.5 percent because of higher exports and businesses accumulating inventory ahead of the tariffs.
The United States has imposed 35 percent tariffs on Canadian goods not covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as well as 50 percent tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper; 25 percent tariffs on auto parts; and 10 percent tariffs on energy and potash.
Additionally, Canada has been facing a lack of long-term investment, including in the oil and gas sector, where investment fell from a high of over $80 billion in mid-2014 to just $24 billion in 2020. Premiers such as Alberta’s Danielle Smith cite federal policies as the culprit, calling them “hostile” to investment, while the Liberal government says it has introduced new legislation and policies to enable “nation-building” projects.
A Sept. 12 report by the National Bank of Canada said that inflation-adjusted investment in industrial machinery and equipment in Canada fell in the second quarter to its lowest level on record since 1981, while U.S. investment has surged in the opposite direction.
Pumpjacks draw out oil and gas from well heads as wildfire smoke hangs in the air near Calgary, Alberta, on May 12, 2024. Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File
The Bank of Canada said in its latest monetary policy report, released in July, that the country’s economic growth was “stronger than expected” in the first quarter of 2025 due to a surge in exports in anticipation of U.S. tariffs. But the central bank said exports and business investment had fallen and also that growth in the second quarter had slowed but that domestic consumption was showing “resilience.”
The central bank said a great deal of “uncertainty” remains around U.S. trade policy, which has continued to weigh on household spending and business investment, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly imposed and then reversed tariffs on various countries.
Defining ‘Recession’
Canada did not officially enter a recession toward the end of 2023, but it came very close. The country’s GDP remained stagnant in the fourth quarter of 2023, and grew by just 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024.
Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said at a December 2024 webinar that he believed Canada’s economy was in a recession though not “a technical one” based on the definition of two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage. He said this was because of the large number of immigrants coming to Canada who boost consumption and thus drive up the GDP. Poloz said, however, that per capita GDP, which refers to a country’s GDP divided by its population, showed an economy in decline.
Statistics Canada noted in an April 2024 report that the country’s per capita GDP “has now declined in five of the past six quarters and is currently near levels observed in 2017.” The agency said Canada would need to see higher productivity and capital investment for its per capita GDP to return to an upward trend.
Di Matteo said there is an alternative measure of economic downturns known as the Sahm Indicator, which states that a recession begins in the United States when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point or more compared to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
According to Di Matteo, when using the indicator on Canada’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the country “appears to have moved into recession territory in October of 2024.” He said this is because the indicator moved above 0.5 percentage points that month and has remained above ever since.
Miller said one definition of a recession, which was first used by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan, is “when your neighbour loses his job,” while a depression “is when you lose yours.”
While there needs to be a “yardstick” for measuring recessions, Miller said, there are various ways to measure economic downturns. “I don’t think we should change the yardstick, but we should be open to the fact that different recessions function differently,” he said.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
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// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
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TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
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GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7223 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1754 DOWN 0.0070 OR 70 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.21 UP 1.331 OR YEN IS DOWN 133 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6800 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.501 UP 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN .00034 OR 34 BASIS pts to 1.3804
Stocks bid and bonds hit on strong US data – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 04:30 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up
REAR VIEW: Jobless claims drop; Strong Philly Fed; BoE holds as expected in 7-2 vote; NVDA to invest USD 5bln in INTC; China drops GOOG antitrust probe; Weak Aussie jobs; Weak Kiwi GDP; EU to phase out Russian LNG more quickly, but no mention of oil; Woeful 10yr TIPS auction; Norges cuts as expected.
COMING UP: Data: Japanese CPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), German Producer Prices (Aug), Canadian Retail Sales (Jul) Events: BoJ Announcement, Quad Witching Speakers: BoJ Governor Ueda; ECB’s Lagarde; Fed’s Daly, Miran, Former Fed President Bullard Supply: Australia.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices saw gains on Thursday, with the small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also saw decent gains and was buoyed by NVIDIA investing USD 5bln in Intel – this provided tailwinds for most semi names, aside from AMD and TSM, as it is seen as a threat to their competitiveness. As such, Technology was the clear sectoral outperformer while Consumer Staples lagged. The Dollar was firmer, to the detriment of G10 FX peers, and surged in wake of initial jobless claims, which came in at 231k (exp. 240k, prev. 264k). There was a deluge of central bank decisions (BoE, Norges, SARB, BCB), while Antipodeans were hit on weak data overnight -Kiwi was the notable laggard after the weak Q2 GDP metrics, which saw the economy contract much more than anticipated, while the Aussie economy unexpectedly lost 5.4k jobs in August. The BoE held the Bank Rate at 4.0%, which was widely expected, in a 7-2 vote. Dovish dissent came from Dhingra and Taylor, who preferred a 25bps reduction. Treasuries were weaker across the curve, but particularly in the long-end, as they were hit on the aforementioned jobless claims and a strong Philly Fed. There was a dismal 10yr TIPS auction, which put a cap on the gradual bid into settlement. The crude complex was lower, and weighed on by Trump comments, and the EU reportedly phasing out Russian LNG quicker than expected – a potential indication they are still focusing on LNG, instead of Russian oil – despite Trump’s demands. On the former, Trump stated that if the oil price drops, Putin will have no choice but to end the war.
GLOBAL
BOE REVIEW: As expected, the MPC opted to hold the Bank Rate at 4.0%. The decision to do so came via a 7-2 vote with dovish dissent from Dhingra and Taylor, who preferred a 25bps reduction on account of the judgement that the disinflation process was continuing and the need to take action to insure against the risk of recession and below-target inflation. For the consensus on the board, policymakers stated that an unchanged rate was appropriate due to the lack of news since the prior announcement and the question over whether upside risks to inflation could be outweighed by downside risks stemming from the potential for a more substantial weakening in demand. Within the policy statement, the MPC continues to expect CPI to peak at 4% in September and as such, “a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate”. Market pricing expects the BoE to remain cautious in the face of upside inflation risks and only price 9bps of loosening by year-end with the next 25bps reduction not fully priced in until April 2026. On the Bank’s QT programme, the MPC voted 7-2 to slow QT pace to GBP 70bln (exp. 70bln; prev. GBP 100bln). As such, active sales will climb to GBP 21bln from GBP 13bln. Of relief to those in the Treasury, the MPC opted to shift the maturity profile of its bond-selling with 2025/26 gilt sales to be split 40:40:20 between short-, medium- and long-maturity buckets in initial proceeds terms (2024/25 had an equal split). Overall, the meeting was largely a placeholder event with the MPC in wait-and-see mode over whether September marks the peak for inflation and the disinflation process resumes.
US JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial Jobless claims fell to 231k in the latest week, down from the 264k seen previously, and beneath the 240k consensus. The 4wk average was little changed at 240k. Continued Claims fell to 1.92mln from 1.93mln, also beneath the consensus of 1.95mln. Within the report, the unadjusted claims fell 10k to 194k, while seasonal factors had expected a 17k decrease. For continued claims, the unadjusted data saw a 51k drop to 1.753mln, seasonal factors expected a 44k decrease. Following the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that it shows the “no hire, no fire” economy trundles on. Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday warned if there was a sudden increase in firing/layoffs, due to the lack of hiring, then you could quickly see a flow into higher unemployment. Given claims have pared quite drastically from the prior, somewhat abnormal spike last week, and also snapping three consecutive weeks of gains, it has reduced some of the labour market concerns, particularly around firing and supporting the argument that last week’s increase was just a blip. There was an Axios report last week that suggested the spike in Claims, led by Texas, was due to fraudulent claims in the state. This week, claims in Texas fell by 5k, after rising c. 15k in the prior week – there was no mention of fraudulent claims in the press release. The largest state contributors to the move lower in claims this week, in the non-seasonally adjusted data, was Connecticut (-4k) and Texas (-5k). The largest gains were in New York (1.6k), Massachusetts (1.1k) and South Carolina (1.1k).
PHILLY FED: Philly Fed impressed, with the headline rising to its highest level since January at 23.2 from -0.3, way above the expected 2.5 and printing outside the upper bound of the forecast range. New orders bounced back into positive territory, printing 12.4 from -1.9, while shipments jumped to 26.1 from 4.1. Employment was little changed at 5.6 (prev. 5.9), while prices paid and received encouragingly tumbled to 46.8 (prev. 66.8) and 18.8 (prev. 35.8), respectively. Capex came in at 12.5 (prev. 38.4), while the 6m ahead index lifted to 31.5 from 25.0. Overall, current indicators improve, firms continue to report overall price increases, higher production, little change in capacity utilization, and they continue to expect growth.
US LEADING INDEX: The US Leading Index, which provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, declined 0.5% in August, a bigger decline than the expected 0.1% and the most pessimistic forecast of -0.4%. The prior July print of -0.1% was revised up to +0.1%. The breakdown sees the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) lift 0.2%, following an increase of 0.1% in both June and July, while the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) inched up by 0.1%, after being unchanged in both June and July. Within the release, it notes “In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signalling more headwinds ahead”. Adding, “Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months. Meanwhile, the contribution of the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April.”
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 4+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-31+
T-Notes sold across the curve on a drop in jobless claims and strong Philly Fed. At settlement, 2-year +2.3bps at 3.570%, 3-year +2.3bps at 3.553%, 5-year +2.1bps at 3.668%, 7-year +2.7bps at 3.859%, 10-year +3.6bps at 4.112%, 20-year +5.4bps at 4.696%, 30-year +5.5bps at 4.729%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -0.7bps at 3.276%, 3-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.732%, 5-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.470%, 10-year BEI -0.6bps at 2.367%, 30-year BEI +0.2bps at 2.268%.
THE DAY: Overnight, T-Notes were bid as Asia digested the FOMC – seemingly taking more focus on the statement and dot plots rather than Powell’s hawkish press conference. Treasuries then meandered in the European morning ahead of US data, which ultimately saw the curve lower for the rest of the US session. T-Notes were lower across the curve after the weekly initial jobless claims, which saw a notable reversal in the latest week to 231k from 264k, below the 240k forecast, snapping three consecutive weeks of gains. The Philly Fed report was also much stronger than expected, adding to the Treasury downside. T-Notes fell immediately, but continued to push lower thereafter to 112-23+ from an earlier peak of 113-12. Nonetheless, T-Notes then gradually pared into the settlement, but were still lower across the curve, with the curve bear steepening. Note, the gains were capped after a woeful 10-year TIPS auction, which saw a 5bps tail (more below).
SUPPLY
T-Notes/Bonds
10YR TIPS: Overall, a woeful auction. The US Treasury sold USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS at a high yield of 1.734%, a lower yield than the prior 1.985%, which tailed the when issued by a huge 5bps. Much larger than the prior stop through of 0.5bps. The bid-to-cover was also soft at 2.20x, below the prior 2.41x and the average 2.40x. Direct demand fell to 26.12% from 32%, but remained above the 22.2% average, while indirect demand dipped to 56.08% from 62.7%, beneath the 68.2% average. This left dealer with a high take-down of 17.8%, well above the prior 5.4% and average 9.6%.
US Treasury to sell USD 69bln of 2yr notes on 23rd September, USD 70bln of 5yr notes on 24th September and USD 44bln of 7yr notes on 25th September; all to settle September 30th (as expected)
US to sell USD 28bln of 2yr FRNs on September 24th; to settle Sept 26th.
Bills
US sells USD 100bln of 4-week bills at a high rate of 4.040%, B/C 2.71x; sells USD 85bln of 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.965%, B/C 276x
US to sell USD 82bln of 13-week bills and USD 73bln in 26-week bills on September 22nd, to sell USD 85bln in 6-week bills on September 23rd, all to settle September 25th (sizes unchanged)
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 23.5bps (prev. 23bps), Dec 44bps (prev. 44bps), January 57.5bps (prev. 58bps).
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 14bln (prev. 14bln) across 13 counterparties (prev. 14).
EFFR at 4.33% (prev. 4.33%), volumes at USD 98bln (prev. 91bln) on September 16th.
SOFR at 4.38% (prev. 4.39%), volumes at USD 2.853tln (prev. 2.857tln) on September 16th
BLOCK TRADES (Futures)
14:17EDT/19:17BST: 10.0k 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZFZ5) at 109-170
13:09EDT/18:09BST: 10.0k 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZNZ5) at 112-315
13:08EDT/18:08BST: 5.0k 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZNZ5) at 112-310
12:32EDT/17:32BST: 10.0k 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZNZ5) at 112-305
10:02EDT/15:02BST: 5.0k 2-Year T-Note Futures (ZTZ5) at 104-096
09:37EDT/14:37BST: 14.5k 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZFZ5) at 109-137
09:33EDT/14:33BST: 5.5k 2-Year T-Note Futures (ZTZ5) at 104-098
04:08EDT/09:08BST: 5.0k 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZFZ5) at 109-235
CRUDE
WTI (V5) SETTLED USD 0.48 LOWER AT 63.57/BBL; BRENT (X5) SETTLED USD 0.51 LOWER AT 67.44/BBL
The crude complex was lower, and weighed on by Trump comments and the EU reportedly phasing out Russian LNG quicker than expected. Recapping, benchmarks saw downside after US President Trump stated that if the oil price drops, Russian President Putin will have no choice but to end the war; he also echoed recent remarks that he is disappointed by other countries buying Russian oil. Shortly after this, oil saw two-way action, but ultimately extended lower after Bloomberg reported that the EU plans to phase out Russian LNG more quickly after Trump’s push. In a knee-jerk reaction, upside was seen, but as desks digested the information, oil fell as Europe does not appear to be cutting out Russian oil despite Trump’s demands. Prior to this, benchmarks were choppy but unmoved by the firmer Dollar in the wake of initial jobless claims. WTI traded between USD 63.33-64.55/bbl, while Brent chopped between USD 67.19/bbl and 68.42/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.48% at 6,632, NDX +0.95% at 24,455, DJI +0.27% at 46,142, RUT +2.51% at 2,468.
SECTORS: Technology +1.36%, Industrials +1.06%, Communication Services +0.28%, Health +0.18%, Real Estate +0.06%, Financials +0.06%, Utilities +0.05%, Materials -0.14%, Energy -0.43%, Consumer Discretionary -0.51%, Consumer Staples -1.03%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.67% at 5,459, Dax 40 +1.33% at 23,671, FTSE 100 +0.21% at 9,228, CAC 40 +0.87% at 7,855, FTSE MIB +0.84% at 42,308, IBEX 35 +0.32% at 15,175, PSI -0.05% at 7,726, SMI +0.42% at 12,049, AEX +2.02% at 933.
Apple (AAPL) reportedly explores possible test production of foldable iPhones in Taiwan.
China drops Google (GOOGL) antitrust probe during US trade talks, according to FT.
Nucor (NUE) cut Q3 profit guidance, citing lower profitability across all three operation segments vs. Q2.
Roche (RHHBY) agreed to acquire 89bio (ETNB) for up to USD 3.5bln (USD 14.50/shr). Note, ETNB closed Wednesday at USD 8.08/shr.
US judge ruled Amazon (AMZN) violated online shopper protection law.
Meta Platforms (META) launched its first consumer-ready smart glasses with a built-in display at USD 799 and available September 30th.
GE HealthCare (GEHC) is weighing selling its stake in its China business and may be valued at several billion dollars.
Nike (NKE) upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ at RBC Capital
Progressive (PGR) downgraded to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at Wells Fargo
US FX WRAP
The Dollar was firmer on Thursday, and was seemingly boosted in wake of initial jobless claims which printed 231k (exp. 240k, prev. 264k), despite initial being subdued in the European morning the day after the FOMC. Back to jobless claims, the hawkish move was likely driven on the fact that while the Fed decision (& SEPs) were dovish, Powell in the Presser pushed back on that and described it as more of a risk management move, with greater focus on the labour market as part of their data-dependent approach. As such, the better-than-expected claims data serves as the first insight into the labour market post-Fed, and factors on the hawkish side of the picture. Looking to Friday, we will get Miran’s dovish dissent speech, and Trump/Xi holding a call at 14:00BST/09:00ET. Note, the Philly Fed survey was also strong, supporting the moves.
G10 FX was weighed on by the broader Dollar strength, although there were some currency-specific narratives to factor in as well. USD/JPY traded between 146.78-148.26 as participants await the conclusion of the two-day BoJ meeting overnight. As a reminder, the BoJ is expected to keep rates at 0.50%, and the political uncertainty in Japan is seen to potentially delay a resumption of BoJ rate hikes. On that footing, LDP leadership candidate Hayashi said Japan’s conditions have allowed the BoJ to raise rates, and the economy is now at a new phase. Note, Takaichi and Koizumi are considered the frontrunners.
Antipodeans sit at the bottom of the pile with the Kiwi notable laggard after the weak Q2 GDP metrics, which saw the economy contract much more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the AUD is weighed on by the disappointing Australian labour market data overnight, whereby the Aussie economy unexpectedly lost 5.4k jobs in August. NZD/USD hit a low of 0.5873, while AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.6608.
Cable traded between 1.3535-3660, with the BoE holding the Bank Rate at 4.0%, which was widely expected, in a 7-2 vote. Dovish dissent came from Dhingra and Taylor, who preferred a 25bps reduction. On the Bank’s QT programme, the MPC voted 7-2 to slow QT pace to GBP 70bln (exp. GBP 70bln, prev. GBP 100bln). As such, active sales will climb to GBP 21bln from GBP 13bln. Money market pricing expects the Old Lady to remain cautious in the face of upside inflation risks and prices in 9bps of cuts by year-end with the next 25bps reduction not fully priced in until April ‘26.
There was a deluge of central bank activity on Thursday, and the NOK saw two-way action on the Norges Bank rate decision. Initially, a dovish reaction was seen to the 25bps cut as money markets were only pricing in such a move with a 40% probability, with the remaining 60% positioned for a hold. In wake of that, the hawkish language in the statement and Governor Bache saying they “do not envisage a large decrease in the policy rate ahead” sparked an unwinding of the initial dovish move.
In the EM space, BRL and ZAR saw little move in wake of their respective decisions. SARB maintained its Repo Rate at 7.00%, as expected, in a split decision, while the BCB held rates at 15%, as expected. Looking ahead, Copom signalled that the Selic is likely to remain at this restrictive level through 2025, with modest easing possible from early 2026, conditional.
BIG NEWS OF THE DAY 25 BASIS POINT CUT
USA DATA RELEASES
small drop but still high;
Initial Jobless Claims Tumble Back Into Their Four-Year Range As Texas Anomaly Normalizes
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 08:39 AM
Initial jobless claims tumbled back into their four year range after spiking the prior week. From 264k prior, 231k Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week
Source: Bloomberg
The drop in initial claims reflects a reversion of the mystery spike in Texas (apparently driven by hiring/firing of state educators)…
Source: Bloomberg
Texas swung from the biggest increase to the largest decrease in claims…
Continuing Claims trended lower but remains above the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
Will this lead Powell and The Fed to now cut back on their easing bias? Baffle ’em with bullshit (data) is back…
end
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
this is good; USA visa revocations underway after Kirk death celebrations
(zerohedge)
Rubio Says US Visa Revocations Underway After Charlie Kirk Death Celebrations
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that foreign nationals who made celebratory comments over Charlie Kirk’s assassination will have their U.S. visas revoked, adding that the process is “underway.”
“America will not host foreigners who celebrate the death of our fellow citizens,” Rubio wrote in a post on X Monday.
“Visa revocations are under way. If you are here on a visa and cheering on the public assassination of a political figure, prepare to be deported.”
Kirk was shot and killed at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10 while he was speaking at a campus event. Prosecutors on Tuesday announced charges including capital aggravated murder, witness tampering, obstruction of justice, and more against Tyler Robinson, a 22-year-old Utah man who was arrested last week.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Rubio confirmed that the State Department will not grant visas to people who celebrated Kirk’s death and said that people who have U.S. visas will have their status revoked.
“We are not in the business of inviting people to visit our country who are going to be involved in negative and destructive, okay,” Rubio told the outlet.
“If I invite someone, if we invite someone to visit the United States of America, as a student, as a tourist, as whatever, then the standard they should be held to is very high.”
Some social media users and influencers have made comments celebrating the Turning Point USA founder’s death, and some have been subsequently fired or suspended. Those include university employees, airline pilots, teachers, and doctors.
An organization called the Charlie Kirk Data Foundation has highlighted individuals who have posted such messages online. The group recently said that it has compiled more than 63,000 “data entries” in connection to an effort to compile those users.
On Monday, Vice President JD Vance said that people who have made statements celebrating his assassination should be fired from their jobs.
“Call their employer. We don’t believe in political violence, but we do believe in civility, and there is no civility in the celebration of political assassination,” Vance said as he hosted Kirk’s podcast.
Last week, a State Department official said that X users should inform the department about any visa holders making celebratory remarks online.
“I have been disgusted to see some on social media praising, rationalizing, or making light of the event, and have directed our consular officials to undertake appropriate action,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said in a statement on X last week.
Other Trump administration officials have signaled that the federal government may go after left-wing groups, NGOs, and their funding sources in the wake of Kirk’s death.
Earlier this year, the State Department ordered U.S. Embassies to pause new student visa interviews, namely in relation to social media screening, an official told The Epoch Times at the time.
“We take very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters in May.
And in August, the Trump administration signaled it would look into all 55 million visa holders in the United States.
END
Jimmy Kimmel Suspended ‘Indefinitely’ After Pushing Charlie Kirk Propaganda
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 07:40 PM
Jimmy Kimmel is done.
The now-former late-night talkshow and Podesta pal will be ‘preempted indefinitely” following overt propaganda regarding the killing of Charlie Kirk, an ABC spokesperson told Deadline. The show will be replaced by other programming.
During his opening monologue on Monday, Kimmel suggested that Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old suspect in the assassination of Kirk last week at Utah University –was a conservative, when all indications point to the exact opposite.
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING: Now, Disney ABC is CANCELING Jimmy Kimmel "INDEFINITELY" due to him lying that the Charlie Kirk assassin was MAGA, per WSJ.
This came right after the ABC affiliates canceled Kimmel via Nexstar.
“The MAGA Gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it,” Kimmel said, adding “In between the finger-pointing, there was grieving.”
ABC’s announcement came shortly after Nextar Media Group announced that its company-owned and “partner television stations affiliated with the ABC Television Network will preempt ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ for the foreseeable future beginning with tonight’s show.”
Hours earlier, FCC Chair Brendan Carr told Benny Johnson that Kimmel’s comments were “truly sick,” and that there’s a “strong case” for legal action against both ABC and Disney (ABC is a Disney subsidiary).
BREAKING: The FCC Chairman is threatening immediate action against Jimmy Kimmel, ABC, and Disney for deliberately misleading the public by claiming Charlie Kirk’s assassin was a MAGA Conservative.
Chairman Brendan Carr calls Kimmel’s malicious lies are “truly sick” and says they… pic.twitter.com/mGhtGMPReI
“This is a very, very serious issue right now for Disney. We can do this the easy way or the hard way,” said Carr. “These companies can find ways to take action on Kimmel or there is going to be additional work for the FCC ahead.”
“They have a license granted by us at the FCC, and that comes with it an obligation to operate in the public interest,” Carr continued.
Nextar is coincidentally seeking FCC approval for a $6.2 billion merger with Tegna – and (also coincidentally, we’re sure) “strongly objects to recent comments made by Mr. Kimmel concerning the killing of Charlie Kirk and will replace the show with other programming in its ABC-affiliated markets.”
Nextar broadcasting division president Andrew Alford said “Mr. Kimmel’s comments about the death of Mr. Kirk are offensive and insensitive at a critical time in our national political discourse, and we do not believe they reflect the spectrum of opinions, views, or values of the local communities in which we are located,” adding “Continuing to give Mr. Kimmel a broadcast platform in the communities we serve is simply not in the public interest at the current time, and we have made the difficult decision to preempt his show in an effort to let cooler heads prevail as we move toward the resumption of respectful, constructive dialogue.”
END
USA/ANTIFA
this is terrific. This should also help with anti semitism protests
(zerohedge)
President Trump Announces Plan To Designate ANTIFA As A Terrorist Organization
“I am pleased to inform our many U.S.A. Patriots that I am designating ANTIFA, A SICK, DANGEROUS, RADICAL LEFT DISASTER, AS A MAJOR TERRORIST ORGANIZATION,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
The president said he would also strongly recommend that anyone funding the group be investigated.
On Monday, Trump hinted at the designation, saying he would support it in the wake of the assassination of Christian conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last week.
“It’s something I would do, yeah, if I have the support from the people back here,” Trump said, referring to administration officials standing behind him, including Attorney General Pam Bondi.
“Antifa is terrible,” Trump added.
Antifa gathered outside the castle in London, chanting, “Charlie’s in a box” on Wednesday, referring to Kirk.
“These societal outcasts are so removed from reality they think it’s funny to laugh at patriots being horrifically murdered,” Turning Point UK, a branch of Kirk’s organization Turning Point USA, posted on X.
The suspect in Kirk’s assassination, Tyler Robinson, is believed to hold extreme leftist viewpoints, according to officials.
He also engraved anti-fascist messages on bullets that were recovered by officials.
The FBI continues to investigate the assassination but has not said whether Robinson was in communication with or associated with any antifa groups.
Antifa—short for anti-fascist—is a political movement that gained popularity with far-left wing activists in the United States after Trump was elected for his first term in 2016.
Trump raised the idea of designating antifa as a terrorist group in 2020, posting on Twitter, “The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.”
Former Attorney General William Barr confirmed the group was present at some of the violent protests following the death of George Floyd.
Former FBI Director Christopher Wray viewed Antifa differently, saying during a congressional hearing in September 2020 that Antifa is “not a group or an organization” but “a movement or an ideology.”
Those who are involved in the movement are motivated by communism and anarchism, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C.
Antifa members are known to wear black clothing and masks during protests to shield their identities.
The Trump administration did not offer details on Wednesday on how or when it would designate Antifa as a terrorist organization.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) praised Trump’s announcement.
“Antifa seized upon a movement of legitimate grievances to promote violence and anarchy, working against justice for all. The President is right to recognize the destructive role of Antifa by designating them domestic terrorists.”
In the United States, groups are designated as terrorist organizations after committing violent, criminal acts to further ideological goals of political, religious, social, racial, or environmental natures, according to the FBI.
For many years we have watched the various assemblies of Revolutionary Communists (RevCom), Occupy Wall Street (OWS), Black Lives Matter (BLM) and personnel related to these organizations, evolve and align into the organization of radical leftists now known as Antifa.
Previously, despite their funding, organized and coordinated activities, the FBI had called them a “movement and ideology” and not an organization. However, their organizational model should not be hard to unravel. There is a funding mechanism for these activities which should be easy for government officials to research.
In the 2020 election the domain registry of Antifa.Com had a landing page of JoeBiden.com [background].
Various off-shoots of the leftist cause, anarchists, occupy, blm and pro-Palestinian agitators all align with the ideology of the foot soldiers who take to the streets and create chaos.
Perhaps no other person is more responsible for tracking Antifa’s domestic network of activity than Andy Ngo [Twitter Feed Here].
Ngo has confronted the group, tracked their activity, documented their violence and traced major parts of their organization.
As Andy Ngo said in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk shooting, “Expect a lot of liberal and left-wing media propaganda the next few days about Antifa. They will say the movement doesn’t organize into groups and that those involved are peaceful, racial justice activists simply opposed to fascism. Don’t let them get away with lying.”
Mr Ngo puts the challenges of labeling Antifa as a terrorist group into context here.
It will be difficult for President Trump to assemble a legally binding designation against the reality of constitutional protections surrounding the First Amendment.
However, organized criminal activity under existing conspiracy and RICO statutes is entirely possible.
My personal opinion of the situation is less about labels and designations and more about just confronting the violent activity as it percolates. Arrest the people for their direct behavior, in the moment the behavior takes place. If they block or impede federal authorities or create civil unrest through violent or unlawful activity, then arrest them immediately.
Again, this is going to come down to how the Dept of Justice and FBI approaches the investigations of individuals and targeting mechanisms of the operation that Antifa uses.
CALIFORNIA
he saw the light!
Newsom Folds, Greenlights Domestic Oil Production In California
Amid California’s worsening affordability crisis and warnings of a 75-percent price increase at the gas pump, state legislators over the weekend sent a package of bills aimed at tackling energy costs, fuel supply, and pollution to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s desk.
Newsom announced the deal with state lawmakers last week, and the two chambers extended their session through Saturday to finalize last-minute negotiations before the Legislature adjourns until January.
“After months of hard work with the Legislature, we have agreed to historic reforms that will save money on your electric bills, stabilize gas supply, and slash toxic air pollution—all while fast-tracking California’s transition to a clean, green job-creating economy,” Newsom said in a statement.
Among them is SB 237, which will clear the way for drilling in the state’s Central Valley, home to the state’s largest oil reserves and by far its greatest producer, after legal battles and regulatory restrictions brought production to a grinding halt and sent refineries packing.
By certifying a Kern County Environmental Impact Report (EIR) that has been tied up in litigation for at least a decade, thus temporarily exempting drilling from environmental review, the bill paves the way for approval of up to 2,000 new well drilling permits annually.
Bipartisan support for the measure comes weeks after state agencies briefed lawmakers on California’s impending crisis as mismatched supply and demand threaten to tank a critical phase in its transition to carbon neutrality.
Newsom in April asked the agencies to work with refiners to confront the gap between his climate goals and the reality that demand for transportation fuels is not decreasing as fast as hoped.
It’s an about-face from Newsom’s hardline stance on decarbonization, catalyzed in part by the departure of two refineries and the threat of infrastructure collapse as pipeline capacity reaches critically low levels, and as the state increasingly relies on imported fuel from foreign nations.
Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta in 2023 sued the state’s biggest oil producers for causing or contributing to “climate change-related harms,” including extreme drought, flooding, and wildfires. The case is ongoing.
“I want to thank the Governor for being willing to listen, and to understand the situation that we have before us. And his courage to act immediately to stabilize fuel prices for all Californians,” Republican state Sen. Shannon Grove, who represents Kern County, said on the Senate floor on Saturday.
“Californians cannot afford $10-a-gallon gas,” Grove, who has long pushed to loosen restrictions on production in her district, said in a statement last week. “It’s time to unleash Kern County producers to meet our state’s energy needs with affordable, locally produced oil for Californians by Californians.”
Course Correction
In the Assembly, many Democrats framed the bill as a painful compromise to stave off economic crisis.
“I’m keenly aware of the damage refinery closures can have on a community,” Assemblymember Lori Wilson said during the floor session. Wilson, a Democrat, represents the city of Benicia, home to a Valero refinery that announced it will close by the end of next year.
A Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles also announced in October 2024 that it would close by the end of this year, and six refineries have closed since 2008, two of them converting to renewable diesel. Operators have cited high operating costs and punishing state regulations as reasons for leaving; last year, the state fined Valero $82 million for air pollution violations at its Benicia facility.
“This closure will impact our union workers resulting in the loss of $1.6 billion in employee compensation, distress the finances of local governments that will take years to recover, and cost our community $400 million annually in additional economic activity for our local businesses and nonprofits,” Wilson said of the Valero closure.
While the bill won’t help her local refinery directly, Wilson said increasing domestic production of crude oil and lowering imports will help stabilize the market, create and save jobs, and prevent price spikes caused by international market volatility.
Assemblymember Gregg Hart, a Democrat, lauded the final bill for increasing restrictions on offshore drilling, while streamlining permitting for onshore production.
“Together these measures reflect a balanced approach,” he said. “Offshore, we’re tightening oversight to prevent irreparable harm to our coast; onshore, we’re ending 10 years of CEQA litigation and imposing measures and strong setbacks to allow Kern County to manage oil production more efficiently.”
In an Aug. 20 presentation to lawmakers, state agencies acknowledged that the decline in California’s crude supply relative to demand from in-state refineries is in large part a result of the Kern County CEQA litigation that has stalled well permitting in the state’s fossil fuel mecca.
California has some of the highest concentrations of recoverable oil in the world—and also the most stringent oil and gas regulations in the country. Its carbon-rich, heavy crude is refined into finished products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, blended into special mixes that adhere to strict environmental standards.
As pipelines carrying Kern County crude to refineries in Northern and Southern California approach critically low levels, the state is aiming to stabilize levels at around 30 percent of overall consumption in order to prevent further closures.
‘Huge Step Backward’
Assemblymembers Alex Lee and Tasha Boerner, both Democrats, were among four “no” votes, calling the bill a “regulatory giveaway to Big Oil,” and a “huge step backward” in the state’s efforts to protect vulnerable communities and workers, respectively.
“Like the dinosaurs that they process into petroleum oil, the fossil fuel industry is a dinosaur. It is dying out, and refineries and facilities are closing not just in California but in Texas and across the world,” Lee said.
He proposed legislators should instead be concerned with “true affordability” and with the workers and communities that will be left to clean up when producers leave as demand inevitably continues to fall.
Democratic Assemblymember Carl DeMaio said he “struggled” with the bill because it doesn’t go far enough to ensure affordable energy supply but represents a “compromise” that tries to balance competing perspectives.
“My hope is we can do better next year,” he said.
Assemblymember Isaac Bryan, also a Democrat, acknowledged the threat of volatility created by mismatched supply and demand, but framed his support as a temporary compromise that meets the moment.
“When the governor first announced his proposal, we didn’t just take it at face value, we pushed back,” Bryan said. “The idea of exempting oil drilling from CEQA was insane to men … but we recognized the pragmatic approach to looking at this problem and needing to find some sort of balance to manage our decline.”
Democratic Assemblymember David Alvarez acknowledged that the bill represents a “course correction” for Democrats, after years of pushing rapid decarbonization.
“This approach we’ve been taking is not the exact right path, and that’s OK,” he said. “It’s a recognition that the utilization of oil is something that’s still necessary … and unfortunately for many people in the state like communities I represent, they cannot afford the transition, because they cannot afford to buy a new vehicle that is nonreliant on gasoline—that is a reality.”
For Grove, bipartisan support for the bill was a gratifying culmination of years of work trying to push back against what she characterized as a suffocating policy that put her constituents at risk.
“This issue is very close to my heart,” Grove said, noting that when she was first elected to the State Assembly in 2010, 3,000 new drill permits were issued and average gas prices hovered around $3.12 a gallon. “Jobs were abundant, families were buying their first home or forever home, nonprofits were funded, my district was thriving.”
But in the past three years, she added, fewer than 87 new drill permits were approved.
“As these permits dried up over the years, thousands of my constituents lost great jobs. … They lost homes, moved away, chased industry to … other locations,” she said.
Democratic state Sen. Jerry McNerney, meanwhile, stressed the ultimate goal of the compromise: “If we don’t keep gas prices affordable, we will lose public support, and in doing so, we will lose the fight against climate change.”
In a press conference with Grove after the Senate passed AB237, retired Kern County Planning Commissioner Lorelei Oviatt said county leaders were excited that 15 years of work that went into creating the EIR was coming to fruition.
“This is an important step at stabilizing our gas prices and actually engaging in a long-term conversation of this relationship between clean energy—and Kern County is at the center of that as well—clean energy and demand for fossil fuels,” Oviatt said.
Grove noted the EIR assures mitigations that will result in a zero net carbon increase, “so whatever we put in to pull the oil out, there is no increase in our carbon output,” and that Kern County not only produces 80 percent of the state’s oil and gas but also nearly 60 percent of its wind and solar, and more than 80 percent of its battery storage.
“We are the solution, not the problem,” she said of Kern County.
Other bills in the package aim to increase climate credits on consumer utility bills, expand California’s regional power grid, and improve utility wildfire oversight, as well as expand the state’s Cap-and-Trade program to 2045 and increase air pollution monitoring.
In a statement on Sept. 10, environmental justice and health organizations criticized the governor and legislative leadership for watering down protections in amended versions of the bills.
“The Legislature is also set to approve massive CEQA exemptions for oil extraction in Kern County based on the oil industry’s word but with no guarantee that this will reduce gas prices or ensure stable fuel supply,” the organizations said.
“Once again, these bills continue to make [environmental justice] communities into sacrifice zones for the benefit of industry profit. We are disappointed by the status of these bills and demand that the Legislature and Governor Newsom do more to protect the most vulnerable communities in California.”
Oviatt said the issue would require stakeholders to continue to have “deep, thoughtful conversations,” but added, “first, the consumers need to know that they can get to work and they can pay their electric bills without having to remortgage the house.”
Newsom, who has already approved the package, has until Oct. 13 to sign the bills into law.
The war of words between President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been revealed as largely histrionic. Like their predecessors—Richard Nixon and Arthur Burns—over 50 years ago, Trump and Powell have been acting out a performative charade regarding when and to what extent artificially low interest rates should go even lower in the midst of persistent inflation. The supposed sparring between Trump and Powell merely guarantees the result both want—more easy money.
In a recent speech at the obnoxious Jackson Hole symposium, Powell incredibly stated that current monetary policy was “restrictive.” He followed that up with veritable chum for easy money sharks: “…the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
Translation: the Fed intends to resume cutting interest rates at the next September meeting. Per the online betting marketplace Kalshi, the odds of a September rate cut immediately shot up from 59 percent to 81 percent. But whether or not Powell and the Fed cut rates in September is almost irrelevant. One need only open his eyes to see the matter clearly.
Money Everywhere
As of this writing, US stock markets are at all-time highs, with valuations (as measured by the CAPE ratio) at levels only seen once before—during the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999. Within this milieu, margin debt has also hit an all-time high in July, meaning that investors are taking loans to speculate in stocks while ignoring the magnified risk therein.
Junk bonds—a euphemism for sub-prime corporate debt—trade at spreads as tight as they’ve ever been. In other words, investors in the risky debt of poorly performing companies are willing to accept pitifully meager returns in exchange for excessive credit risk.
The junkiest bonds of all—US Treasuries—yield essentially zero when a realistic measure of price inflation is used as the discount rate. Poorly performing companies at least have a product to offer. The US government, on the other hand, revels in the devaluation of the instrument—the US dollar—with which it pays its debts. For investors in US sovereign bonds, default and repayment are functionally indistinguishable.
Home prices are at all-time highs, with the home-price-to-income ratio near 7.5x, itself an all-time high. As a result of this imbalance, the average first-time homebuyer is now a record 38 years old. Clearly, the young are finding their options limited by home price inflation, which is leading to muted and delayed family formation.
The money supply (“M2”) has grown by 5 percent in the last 12 months, the very definition of inflation. Simultaneously, even government measures of price inflation have accelerated. CPI—the absurdly sandbagged and impractical measure of US consumer price inflation—has been above the Fed’s 2 percent target for nearly five years straight. The most recent reading showed annualized month-over-month CPI at 4.1 percent while the Producer Price Index (“PPI”)—a measure of wholesale price inflation—showed an annualized month-over-month reading of a whopping 11.5 percent.
The True Cost of Cheap Money
In the midst of this rapidly-inflating asset market and the undeniably loose monetary conditions fostered by the US government and the Fed, it behooves the rational observer to ask not just the obvious cui bono questions, but who foots the bill for this policy? Cui malo? The answer is that the average American, or the “middle class,” is the host on which the easy money parasite feeds.
Since 2008, government statistics suggest that median nominal wages have risen at an average annual pace of 3.0 percent, compared to 2.3 percent for CPI over the same period. This indicates that real wages have increased by a meager 0.7 percent annually over that timeframe. But in surveying the major expense categories for average Americans, has anything increased by only 2.3 percent per year over that period?
Apartment rent, measured nationally, has increased by 4.1 percent annually and home prices have increased by 4.2 percent annually, despite dipping significantly from 2007-2011. Home insurance is up 3.0 percent annually. Health insurance is up 5.0 percent annually. Prices for eggs and beef—basic staples of a healthy diet—are up 6.8 percent and roughly 5.0 percent (depending on the type of beef) annually, respectively.
Based on the latest available data, the average cost for a one-week vacation in the US for a family of four is roughly $8,000. That figure also happens to match the median balance of savings in the country. As a result, middle class families have a choice—enjoy a family trip and drain the savings account, or skip the leisure and keep the thinnest sliver of financial cushion in case of emergency.
In the background, the federal government continues to spend and borrow like a deranged madman, ensuring ever more inflation and dollar debasement in the future. The Trump administration is well on its way to a $2 trillion deficit this fiscal year and a $44 trillion debt balance by the time Trump leaves office in early 2029.
This dynamic is not a real problem for the asset-rich, but for the middle class it is an unrelenting pressure. Lacking assets and the resources to acquire them—recall that the median savings balance is $8,000—average Americans face the prospect of falling further behind as inflation tenaciously undermines their quality of life. In a desperate effort to keep up, many have turned to borrowing and then speculating in asset markets with the proceeds.
This toxic combination of leverage, lack of investment risk awareness, and the need to “stretch for yield” in the absence of sufficient savings rates has already led to widespread wealth destruction for average Americans. In the apartment investment market, for example, mom-and-pop investors have lost tens of billions of dollars in equity. After soliciting those funds, unscrupulous “syndicators” combined them with risky bridge loans to buy swaths of apartment properties which immediately collapsed in value when short-term interest rates began increasing in 2022. Other asset markets are in similarly perilous shape, and the average American investor does not have the benefit of a US Treasury bailout. In fact, any bailout will be at their expense.
The Long Con
At this stage, there is little that can be done to avoid a reckoning, but—contrary to popular belief—it is unlikely to take the form of a distinct, sudden crash. Rather, we are in the middle of that reckoning now—a slow and continuous degradation of life quality for the majority of the population.
Much like the similar, gradual-but-undeniable collapse of Britain over the course of the 20th century, the result of this process is a society increasingly devoid of productive virtue, with a contempt for individual freedom. In their place will continue to grow a pernicious central state apparatus obsessed with warfare, “social justice” for pet groups, and economic theories developed by the dimwitted and immoral.
The robbery of the middle class by the political class is not accidental. It is the inevitable corollary of inflation, a policy willfully chosen by the state.
END
LATE IN THE DAY: THIS CAME OUT OF NOWHERE
WOW!!! TRICOLOUR HOLDINGS BANKRUPT
Subprime Crisis 2.0? Red Flags Fly As Alleged Fraud Triggers Billion-Dollar Auto-Lender Bankruptcy
025 – 02:25 PM
Did a medium-sized canary just croak in the coalmine of consumer credit?
While the world and his pet rabbit was avidly glued to the screens, hanging on every word from Fed Chair Powell, something happened in a name that few have likely heard of that could have a much greater impact on markets.
After seeing its bonds rise week after week, seemingly amid confidence in the US consumer (especially at the lowest incomes)…
…prices for the almost $2 billion of debt behind subprime auto-lender Tricolor Holdings suddenly collapsed yesterday, leaving creditors across the US scrambling to stake their claim on the company’s remaining assets and contain their losses…
As Bloomberg reports, the details behind the collapse of Tricolor remain uncertain, with federal investigators looking into possible fraud and banks exploring whether the same collateral was pledged to multiple lenders.
In Dallas, the regional bank Triumph Financial Inc. has dispatched teams of employees to used-car lots, where they’re identifying and whisking away to safe locations the vehicles they believe are the collateral to their loans.
In midtown Manhattan, a boutique investment firm that built a position in Tricolor’s asset-backed bonds, Clear Haven Capital Management, has been calling other bondholders, urging them to band together and fight to keep the big banks away from the assets that belong to them.
Those banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Fifth Third Bancorp, have begun to forensically examine their own collateral to try to ascertain the magnitude of the losses.
This is part of what’s fueling the frantic rush – the sense that many of the details behind the collapse of Tricolor, a provider of high-interest car loans to undocumented workers, remain murky even a week after its bankruptcy filing.
Prominent among them: Was there fraud, as federal investigators are now looking into, and how prevalent was it?
“Everyone is in the dark as to how serious these allegations of fraud are, so bondholders and lenders are rushing to protect their interests,” said Boris Peresechensky, a portfolio manager at Orange Investment Advisors.
Two other big subprime auto lenders that declared bankruptcy in recent years — American Car Center and US Auto Sales — ended up costing some junior bondholders dearly, said Peresechensky.
Signs are emerging that it may have been widespread. Banks are exploring whether the same collateral was pledged to multiple lenders.
Bloomberg reports that people familiar with the probes say the suspected manipulation stretches back months, possibly longer.
Earlier this week, holders of Tricolor’s asset-backed bonds didn’t receive some scheduled payments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
They also didn’t get a remittance report – the regular statement detailing cash collected from borrowers and how it’s distributed — the people said.
Tricolor opted to liquidate in bankruptcy rather than attempt a reorganization amid concerns over litigation risk and signs there weren’t enough assets to restructure, according to a person familiar with the decision.
The company listed more than 25,000 creditors, vendors and other affected parties in its bankruptcy filing.
The bottom line is a major (subprime) auto-lender just hit the wall in epic fashion (out of nowhere) as the Emperor’s clothes narrative of the so-called “strong consumer” (spending was solid in aggregate) were suddenly exposed as more evidence of the K-shaped economy Americans are living in (haves and have-nots) and the divergence is getting wider.
If collateral-backed subprime auto-lenders are collapsing, how long before default rates on Buy-Now, Pay-Later entities start to soar?
The Bear Traps Report’s Larry McDonald recently noted that BDCs and Private Credit entities are starting to creak – with some sizable names trading well off recent highs. While the driver for much of that pain appears to be AI data-center over-spend, contagion from these archaic credit assets (from subprime auto to BNPL) into the mainstream is not something anyone wants to experience again.
Is Tricolor Holdings the June 2007 Bear Stearns Structured-Credit Fund of 2025?
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report September 19, 2025 Issues 7579
Independent View of the News
In trading before the FOMC Communique release, the DJIA was +225.07 at 13:35 ET; the NY Fang+ Index was -155.50. Obviously, a valuation rotation was operative. The DJTA was +35.00.
ESZs traded modestly higher when they opened on Tuesday night and quickly rallied to 6674.50 (+7.00) at 18:45 ET. After double topping at 20:09 ET, ESZs declined to 6662.25 at 20:17 ET. The rally for and after the 3 ET European opening took ESZs to 6673.00 at 3:34 ET. The professional dump was aggressive; ESZs fell to 6653.75 at 4:40 ET. An irregular A-B-C rally pushed ESZs to a daily high of 6675.75 at 9:52 ET. Another pro dump appeared; ESZs fell to a daily low of 6650.00 at 12:40 ET.
The rally for the release of the FOMC Communique pushed ESZs higher. ESZs soared to 6686.50 when the Fed issued the expected 25bps rate cut and projected another 50bps of rate cuts for 2025. The market expected two more 25bp rate cuts in 20025.
FOMC Communique Highlights (14:00 ET release)Downside risks to unemployment have risenNew Fed Gov Miran dissented in favor of a half-point cutInflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevatedOne official penciled in no rate cuts for 2025Six officials penciled in one 25bp rate cut for 2025Two officials penciled in two 25bp rate cuts for 2025Nine officials penciled in three 25bp rate cuts for 2025One official (probably Miran) projected 150bps of rates cut for 2025Fed Median Core PCE projection at 3.1% in ’25, 2.6% in ‘26Fed Median Unemployment projection 4.5% in ’25, 4.4% in ‘26Fed Officials see real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025 The fin media hyped and emphasized the Fed’s increased concern about the labor market.
The panic buying ended at 14:05 ET; ESZs tumbled to 6640.00 at 14:13 ET, -46.60 in 8 minutes. ESZs rebounded to 6674.75 at 14:30 ET on hope that Powell would issue dovish remarks.
Powell Presser Highlights https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250917.pdfJob growth has slowed, downside employment risks have risen, reason for rate cutInflation has risen recently, remains somewhat elevated.Housing activity remains weak; labor demand has softened.Good part of jobs slowing reflects labor force decline.Disinflation appears to be continuing in services (WRONG!)Base case is tariff impact on inflation is short-lived.Long-term inflation expectations still anchored (More BS) Powell Q&A HighlightsRevised jobs numbers mean labor market is no longer solid.It is possible tariffs are affecting the job market.We have been right to wait and watch.You can think of today’s cut as a ‘risk management cut’.Labor market risks are a very different picture than what existed in July.People more at the margins having difficulty finding jobs.We will restore 2% inflation on a sustained basis (Intelligence-insulting lie!)Tariff inflation pass through has slowed and is smaller.Fed’s job is to ensure that tariff inflation does not get entrenchedInappropriate to comment on Fed Gov. Lisa Cook caseIssues about data is due to low response rate to surveys; need resources to raise rateOfficial data still reliable enough to guide our workWon’t comment on anything Treasury Secretary saysAI might be part of hiring slowdownData this week shows consumption stronger than expected.Risk to labor were the focus of today’s decisionWe have a nationwide housing shortage problem (Liar! Glut of homes for sale!)Fed balance sheet is still in ‘abundant reserves’ conditionHouseholds and banks are in great shapeFinancial stability is a mixed picture Powell ended his presser at 15:23 ET. Trump complained that only his guy wanted a 50bp cut.
ESZs plunged to a new daily low of 6611.00 at 14:54 ET on the dump we warned about and because Powell was NOT as dovish as needed to generate enough pasties to absorb traders eager to dump.
ESZs soared to 6676.00 at 15:28 ET on the late manipulation, which was desperately needed. ESZs then did a slow rollover until they hit 6653.50 at 15:59 ET.
USZs rallied to 118 21/32 (+22/32) at 14:14 ET but tumbled to 117 7/32 (-24/32) at 15:55 ET and closed at 117 8/32, -23/32.
The Fed’s DOT Plots show Fed officials do NOT expected inflation to fall to 2% until 2028! Yet, the deceitful Powell claims the Fed will restore inflation to 2% on a sustained basis. HOW? FOMC DOT Plots: https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1968379141440581665/photo/1
@DannyDayan5: So Miran, who forecasted 4% GDP in 2027 as CEA Chair, has a 2027 dot at 2.25%.
@Convertbond: We have, yes, 5 years of inflation above the Fed’s target, and they are cutting rates into that dynamic. = Financial repression, monetizing the colossal US debt load, and massaging interest rates below the rate of inflation over time.
BBG’s @AnnaEconomist: So, the median Fomc participant raised the growth forecast for 25’— implying gdp at potential growth pace, or perhaps even higher given slowdown in immigration, in H2. It also lowered the UR projection for 26’ and 27’. And it is talking about downside risks to employment having increased. I have not seen a meeting with so many contradictions.
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied 260.42 on the rotation out of Fangs that occurs periodically. Precious metals fell smartly; the dollar index rallied modestly.
Negative aspects of previous session USZs closed -23/32; the DJTA declined 145.76; the NY Fang+ Index fell 91.09
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big will the US stock bubble inflate this week on Fed rate cut and AI euphoria?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6591.96 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6624.39; 6551.15
@bennyjohnson: The FCC Chairman is threatening immediate action against Jimmy Kimmel, ABC, and Disney for deliberately misleading the public by claiming Charlie Kirk’s assassin was a MAGA Conservative…https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1968359685045838041
@FischerKing64: Someone like Jimmy Kimmel is in a tough spot. The only people who watch him are rabid, frothing at the mouth Trump haters. He won’t have ratings if he doesn’t throw them red meat. But it got him cancelled, approving of murder. Dem politicians are in the same quandary… He was just playing a character to crazy people who kept him employed.
Even though thousands of people have lost jobs or have been expelled from colleges, the usual suspects are still posting diatribes against Kirk or celebrating his death. Decades of liberal privilege has formerly protected people believing that they are immune to negative consequences for their actions/words.
Today – With expiration Friday looming, the usual suspects will try to create an upside squeeze on expiry September call options. With one (Sept rate cut) of the major asset inflators now gone with the wind, only AI delusions and the expiry manipulation remain to boost stocks.
ESUs are +22.50; NQUs are +113.25 (on expiry manipulation); and USZs are -4/32 at 20:13 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 240k, Continuing Claims 1.95m; Sept Phil Fed Business Outlook 1.9; Aug LEI -0.2%
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6407; 100-day MA: 6163; 150-day MA: 5991; 200-day MA: 5994 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,890; 100-day MA: 43,627; 150-day MA: 43.003; 200-day MA: 43,197 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6600.35 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6307.71 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6504.30 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6587.31 triggers a sell signal
CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY: Dems are trying to “both sides” the Charlie Kirk assassination by pointing out that Gov. Shapiro’s house was burned down. There’s just one detail they’re leaving out: It was a “free Palestine” LEFTIST that did it!https://t.co/ZAUeWZpKs9
@RapidResponse47: VP Vance: “This is a person… who was radicalized by the Far Left… and got so far down the path of radicalization that he killed my friend. That is not a ‘both sides’ problem. My friend is dead because of left-wing political radicalization.”https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1968412573230944679
GOP Sen. @Eric_Schmitt: For those who don’t understand the problem ABC News: 87% of Democrats view Trump as a fascist NPR: 47% of Democrats say the “rise of fascism” is their top political concern; Rutgers: 55% of Americans on the Left believe assassinating Trump would be “at least somewhat justified”
Lefty University of North Carolina students paint over Charlie Kirk tribute, hurl ‘fascist’ and ‘Nazi’ insultshttps://trib.al/ALqcycM
The Atlantic’s Jemele Hill deletes post claiming Charlie Kirk was victim of ‘white supremacist gang hit’ – Ross noted that Hill cited “disinformation expert” Joan Donovan, who “should now be shunned by the media,” he wrote on X…https://trib.al/2P58BnG
Founder of Armed Queers group investigated in Charlie Kirk shooting is radical trans leftist who advocated violencehttps://trib.al/7fAKuhF
@Austin__Berg: Delayed property tax collections have forced emergency lending into Chicago’s pension funds in order to avoid asset sales. The Chicago firefighters’ pension fund did not have the cash on hand to pay *current retirees.*This is what insolvency looks like. And it’s exactly why Chicago CFO Jill Jaworski and Mayor Brandon Johnson should have been screaming from the rooftops to oppose the pension sweetener bill just passed in Springfield that dropped the police and fire pensions to 18% funded—the worst in the nation.
@JustTheNews: The gloves are off as FBI Director Kash Patel tells @RepSwalwell, “I’m going to borrow your terminology and call bulls**t on your entire career in Congress. It’s been a disgrace to the American people. You can reclaim your time all you want.” https://x.com/JustTheNews/status/1968349240897229001
GOP @RepLuna: Foreign governments are funding operations on college campuses to promote political violence. This is exactly what Charlie Kirk dedicated his life to fighting… We are taking action to expose these groups and stop them once and for all. https://x.com/RepLuna/status/1968376806299549890
Fox: PA Gov. Shapiro describes “tragic” day as 5 police officers shot, 3 killed in York County. (Delivering warrant; Suspected gunman suicide)
FBI’s ‘Armed Queers’ Probe Just The Start – Lawmakers Urge Treasury To Freeze China-Linked Billionaire’s NGO Empire
Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 – 04:20 PM
Well, well, well. The Democratic Party’s dark-money-funded NGO network – bankrolled by leftist billionaires and even possibly foreign adversaries – is coming under intense scrutiny after a leftist woke warrior assassinated Charlie Kirk one week ago. Assassination culture has been normalized by the Democratic Party, which spews hate and misinformation around the clock, labeling anyone they dislike as a “fascist” or “Nazi.”
Where did Charlie Kirk's murderer learn to call conservatives "fascists"?
Scrutiny of dark-money funded NGO networks comes as Marxist revolutionaries from “Armed Queers Salt Lake City“ popped onto the radar of federal agents while investigating the political assassination of Kirk. Now, the White House has declared war on radical leftist groups, lawmakers want answers, and an all-of-government approach will likely ramp up shortly to dismantle the revolutionary cells that want to collapse capitalism and the country.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, offered much-needed insight into the Marxist revolution being fueled by radical leftist groups, highlighting what appear to be alarming connections with foreign adversaries such as China.
Luna wrote on X:
“Armed Queers SLC” is now under FBI investigation as an extended network related to Charlie’s killer.
The founder of Armed Queers SLC is also an organizer for PSL [The People’s Forum], which is funded by Neville Singham and the Chinese Communist Party.
Why did Armed Queers SLC delete their Instagram after Charlie was murdered?
Why is Neville Singham affiliated with radical extremist groups that may have ties to Charlie Kirk’s assassin?
“Armed Queers SLC” is now under FBI investigation as an extended network related to Charlie’s killer. The founder of Armed Queers SLC is also an organizer for PSL, which is funded by Neville Singham and the Chinese Communist Party. Why did Armed Queers SLC delete their Instagram after Charlie was murdered? Why is Neville Singham affiliated with radical extremist groups that may have ties to Charlie Kirk’s assassin?
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1.6M Views
Profiling Armed Queers SLC’s X following list, numerous revolutionary groups were identified:
Armed Queers SLC founder Ermiya Fanaeian’s relationship with PSL/Communist China is very alarming, given the propaganda pushed by the group in Salt Lake…
“New Schweizer team investigation reveals how ‘No Kings’ and its partners bagged $114.8 million from the Arabella dark money network and how these professional protest organizations use tax dollars as a force multiplier.”
Are you beginning to see how the Democratic Party’s dark-money-funded NGO network operates?
“Bad actors like Neville Roy Singham are funding and supporting far-left groups to sow division, hatred, and political unrest in America. The poisoned climate they create fuels tragedies like the assassination of Charlie Kirk,” Luna wrote in a separate X post.
She noted, “House Oversight has officially requested that @SecScottBessent review Singham’s assets and determine whether they should be frozen or seized. We must stop the hate before another tragedy occurs.”
Bad actors like Neville Roy Singham are funding and supporting far-left groups to sow division, hatred, and political unrest in America. The poisoned climate they create fuels tragedies like the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
One of the hardest parts of confronting rising left-wing extremism is that even those who care about the issue often don’t understand how it operates. That’s not their fault—it’s extraordinarily complex. The revolution against the West spans thousands of organizations that may not be formally linked but are marching in unison toward the revolution.
A concise overview looks like this:
Political Orgs: The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is the primary political arm, with the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) close behind. PSL is part of the Neville Roy Singham network and serves as their vehicle for running political candidates.
Militant Anarchists: A growing militant wing trains in weapons and self-defense, including groups such as Antifa, the Socialist Rifle Association, Armed Queers, Behind Enemy Lines, and Unity of Fields.
Climate Activism: Billions have flowed into climate-activist organizations, many of which increasingly employ anarchists.
Social & Racial Justice Groups: Since the rise of BLM, billions—public funds included—have supported the social and racial justice groups that regularly advocate for burning down the country.
Civil-Rights & Legal Orgs: Legacy anti-Western activists (“movement lawyers”) staff these groups, suing governments, police, and schools while training allies to push limits without triggering terrorism charges.
Foreign Interest Groups: Beyond the Neville Roy Singham network, other foreign powers, including the CCP, maintain domestic footholds.
Funding: Much of the money for this revolutionary activity comes from the progressive NGO ecosystem—Open Society Foundations, Tides, Ford, Rockefeller Brothers, Arabella Advisors, and the broader dark-money network.
The civil terrorism expert continued:
In 1969, before declaring war on the U.S. government, some Weather Underground leaders traveled to Cuba to meet with North Vietnamese representatives and learn from their revolutionary experience. After these meetings, the group accepted funding, training, and tactical guidance from Cuban officials.
A 1977 FBI report indicated that Cuban espionage agents provided “limited aid and guerrilla warfare techniques, including the use of arms and explosives,” to members of the Venceremos Brigade.
Now you may be wondering: how does this connect to today’s radical left extremist groups? It never stopped. Organizations like the DSA, BLM, the Singham Network, Unity of Fields, and yes, “Armed Queers” have all taken delegation trips to Cuba, where they were further radicalized, trained in anti-Western revolutionary tactics, and scouted as potential intelligence assets.
Not only is the Venceremos Brigade fiscally sponsored by the People’s Forum, but Manolo De Los Santos lived in Cuba for six years, one year longer than the five typically required for formal Cuban intelligence training.
What is the leader of Armed Queers doing with Elizabeth Warren??
Here's a photo of Elizabeth Warren with Ermiya Fanaeian at one of their events on 2019. Found on Ermiya's FB page. The plot thickens! pic.twitter.com/TQOKafLZGk
“When the left has had power, it has gone after conservatives and their speech, so I am thrilled to see the administration promising to investigate the left-wing nonprofit sector, and hold people accountable,” Scott Walter, president of the conservative watchdog group Capital Research Center, which tracks money in politics, told New York Times journalists.
In recent months, Walter briefed senior White House officials on nonprofit networks and fundraising techniques, while also providing research briefs, including one titled “Marching Toward Violence,” that purported to link anti-Israel protests on college campuses and terrorism.
Circling back to civil terrorism expert Curtis, he explained that NGOs are being weaponized in a coordinated effort to collapse the nation: “The revolution against the West spans thousands of organizations that may not be formally linked but are marching in unison toward the revolution.”
END
News Anchor Resigns After Being Suspended Over On-Air Charlie Kirk Tribute
A WICS-ABC20 News anchor in Springfield, Illinois, has announced that she is resigning from her position after her employer suspended her for paying tribute to the late Charlie Kirk on air.
Beni Harmony paid an impassioned tribute to Kirk, whom she knew personally, during a Sept. 12 segment on ABC20’s Marketplace program.
“I want you to know that it’s OK if you feel sadness, it’s OK if you’re grieving,” the host told her TV audience.
“Two days ago, I lost a mentor, my first boss, the first person who made me believe in myself, that encouraged me to chase this dream that you’re watching right now, Charlie Kirk.
“I want to share with you one of my favourite sayings that Charlie would always tell us at the office, he would yell it from the mountain-tops, so please listen: When conversations stop happening, when individuals become wordless, that’s when violence begins. So, if you do one thing today, make it be with passion, with conviction. Stand up for your friends, stand up for your beliefs, and speak loudly, even if your voice shakes. Your words have meaning, your values have purpose. Never forget that.
“Thank you, CK, you changed my life.”
According to a post Harmony made three days later, she was suspended by her network for the tribute to her former employer, whose assassination on a Utah college campus on Sept. 10 made national headlines.
“Many in the mainstream media have been fired or punished for mocking his assassination,” Harmony wrote in a Sept. 15 post on X.
“I believe I am the first to be targeted for honoring him on air.
“Effective immediately, I have resigned from @WICS_ABC20 after being SUSPENDED for airing a non-partisan tribute to Charlie Kirk this past Friday.”
Explaining the reasoning behind her decision to leave the network, Harmony wrote:
“My resignation is guided by values that are essential to who I am, which I refuse to set aside in order to keep a job. I choose my faith and love of country, and always will.”
She then thanked her community in the city of Springfield and shared a prayer for the country, Kirk, and his wife and two young children.
When asked on X about how people could support her, Harmony said, “While I’m still looking for my next job in media, I recommend everyone support Charlie’s family first.”
Recent Spate of Firings
Numerous people in leadership positions have lost employment over inappropriate comments in response to the assassination of Kirk.
One of the more prominent early cases was the firing of MSNBC analyst Matthew Dowd on Sept. 11, the day after Kirk was fatally shot.
Another media commentator, Washington Post columnist Karen Attiah, also said she had been fired over her comments on the assassination of the conservative influencer.
Several universities, including Clemson University in South Carolina, and companies, including American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, have terminated employees over their inappropriate comments on Kirk’s murder.
Military officials have also said they are looking into disparaging remarks made by service members about the assassination, and that actions that discredit the service will be addressed immediately.
Confronting Political Violence
Vice President JD Vance, who was a close friend of Kirk, hosted a special broadcast of “The Charlie Kirk Show” on Sept. 15—a show that Kirk personally hosted every day from October 2020, right up until his death on Sept. 10, 2025.
In the special broadcast, Vance called on his fellow Americans to confront the problem of political violence, which he said has “terrible consequences,” such as the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump and the shooting of GOP leader Steve Scalise.
“I really do believe we can come together in this country. I believe we must. But unity, real unity, can be found only after climbing the mountain of truth, and there are difficult truths we must confront in our country,” Vance said.
“One truth is that 24 percent of self-described liberals believe it is acceptable to be happy about the death of a political opponent, while only 3 percent of self-described very conservatives agree. Three percent is too many, of course.
“Another truth is that 26 percent of young liberals believe political violence is sometimes justified, and only 7 percent of young conservatives say the same—again, too high a number.
“The data is clear, people on the left are much likelier to defend and celebrate political violence—this is not a both-sides problem. If both sides have a problem, one side has a much bigger and malignant problem, and that is the truth that must be told.”
His comments come after Kirk’s suspected assassin was identified as Tyler Robinson, who Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said had “clearly a leftist ideology.”
FBI Director Kash Patel said on Sept. 13 that Robinson’s father identified his son from footage released during the manhunt for the suspect.
Cox also confirmed that investigators are assessing writings, some with anti-fascist content, allegedly left by Robinson, who had a transgender romantic partner. Authorities have not publicly said whether this is relevant as they investigate Robinson’s motive.
END
Hope that they get Soros on rico charges
(zerohedge)
New Report Reveals Soros’ Open Society Funneled $80 Million To Pro-Terror Groups
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 10:25 AM
The White House opened the week by declaring war on the radical left and its dark-money NGO network in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s political assassination. President Trump and senior officials are zeroing in on George Soros’ Open Society Foundations (OSF) empire, which they say has sown years of chaos nationwide, with Trump even hinting at potential RICO charges.
Remember Black Lives Matter’s color-revolution-style operation that ignited riots across the nation in 2020.
A new report from Capital Research Center (CRC), a think tank tracking foundations, charities, and other nonprofits, has revealed OSF – now run by George’s ultra-leftist, radical son, Alexander – has funneled over $80 million into groups linked to terrorism or extremist violence.
CRC investigative researcher Ryan Mauro published the bombshell report titled “Soros’ Open Society gave $80 million to pro-terror groups,” and this may be the breakthrough in evidence the Trump team needs to prosecute OSF under RICO.
Mauro stated in the report:
Since 2016, George Soros’s Open Society Foundations (OSF), now run with his son Alexander, has poured over $80 million into groups tied to terrorism or extremist violence. The evidence is stark: Open Society has sent millions of dollars into U.S.-based organizations that engage in “direct actions” that the FBI defines as domestic terrorism. These groups include the Center for Third World Organizing and its militant partner Ruckus Society, which trained activists in property destruction and sabotage during the 2020 riots, and the Sunrise Movement, which endorsed the Antifa-linked Stop Cop City campaign, in which activists currently face over 40 domestic terrorism charges and 60 racketeering indictments. At the same time, Open Society awarded $18 million to the Movement for Black Lives, a group that co-authored a radical guide that glorifies Hamas’s October 7 massacre and instructs activists in the use of false IDs, blockades, and economic disruption.
Nor is the danger confined to America’s streets. Open Society has funneled more than $2.3 million into Al-Haq, a nongovernmental organization (NGO) based in the West Bank and long accused of ties to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which the European Union and the United States designate as a foreign terrorist organization. Grants to Al-Haq between 2016 and 2023 ranged from $400,000 in general support to an $800,000 institutional award. In September 2025, the U.S. State Department sanctioned Al-Haq, citing its role in advancing campaigns that “directly engaged in the [International Criminal Court’s] illegitimate targeting of Israel.” That means Soros’s foundation has not only financed extremist groups within the United States but also funneled millions abroad to entities now formally sanctioned by Washington.
Mauro joined Glenn Beck to discuss the “smoking gun” evidence for potential RICO charges against OSF.
end
Fetterman Blasts Democrat Colleagues For ‘Inciting Violence’
Democrat Senator John Fetterman has slammed his own colleagues in the Party, intimating that their rhetoric has incited violence and inspired the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
Once again Fetterman is an outlier as practically the only Democrat to call out his own party for labelling anyone and everyone they disagree with as a ‘fascist’ or a ‘Nazi’.
Speaking of Kirk on a Fox News interview, the Pennsylvania Senator urged “Don’t compare him to anyone! And if you do, you will incite somebody to say, ‘Well now, I feel like I have to take him out!’”
🚨 WOW! Senator JOHN FETTERMAN (D-PA) went off on his own party for calling everyone on the right "Nazi" and "fascist" after it's caused violence. pic.twitter.com/pGRFgN5Ej9
"Don't compare him to anyone! And if you do, you will incite somebody to say, 'Well now, I feel like I have…
Trump Files Emergency Request With Supreme Court To Make Lisa Cook Fired Again
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025 – 12:25 PM
The Trump administration filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court on Thursday to allow it to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank’s board while a lawsuit plays out in lower court over Cook’s ouster by President Trump last month.
The request comes after a federal appeals court in Washington DC rejected the administration’s attempt to remove an order blocking Cook’s removal in a 2-1 decision the night before the Fed’s meeting earlier this week.
“This application involves yet another case of improper judicial interference with the President’s removal authority — here, interference with the President’s authority to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for cause,” wrote the administration’s lawyer, Solicitor General John Sauer.
According to court filings, the Trump administration maintains that Cook committed mortgage fraud based on evidence provided by Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte – which showed that Cook claimed two properties as her primary residence within weeks of each other.
On Aug. 25, Trump announced that he was firing Cook from the seven-member Fed Board. Cook sued in response, resulting in a federal district court on Sept. 9 barring her removal while the suit plays out – which the appeals court upheld.
Sauer says that the Supreme Court, for various reasons, should stay the district court judge’s preliminary injunction reinstating Cook to the Fed, claiming that the DOJ is likely to prevail in the lawsuit “because Cook lacks a Fifth Amendment property interest in her continued service as a Governor of the Federal Reserve System,” and her job is not protected by due process considerations.
Sauer also disputed the judge’s alternative finding that Cook’s firing “for cause” was invalid because the alleged conduct occurred before she was appointed to the Fed.
“The Federal Reserve Act’s broad ‘for cause’ provision rules out removal for no reason at all, or for policy disagreement,” he wrote, adding “But so long as the President identifies a cause, the determination of ‘some cause relating to the conduct, ability, fitness, or competence of the officer’ is within the President’s unreviewable discretion.”
“Cook had made contradictory representations in two mortgage agreements a short time apart, claiming that both a property in Michigan and a property in Georgia would simultaneously serve as her principal residence,” Sauer continued. “Each mortgage agreement described the representation as material to the lender, reflecting the reality that lenders usually offer lower interest rates for principal-residence mortgages because they view such mortgages as less risky.”
“When her apparent misconduct came to light, the President determined that Cook’s ‘deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter’ renders her unfit to continue serving on the Federal Reserve Board, and at a minimum demonstrates ‘the sort of gross negligence in financial transactions that calls into question [her] competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator.”
Sauer also says that the district court judge “lacked authority to order reinstatement as an equitable remedy for the removal of an officer of the United States, as we have discussed in several recent stay applications.”
Cook has denied wrongdoing, and has argued that unproven allegations are not sufficient grounds for removing the Biden appointee.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING LAWYER LARRY KLAYMAN
President Trump Will Declare Martial Law – Larry Klayman
Renowned attorney Larry Klayman predicted early on that the Left would resort to violence when they lose in court to try to stop the Trump Administration agenda. Back in July, Klayman said, “Violence is what they are left with, and we see it happening. We are now seeing calls to violence repeatedly.”
Calls for violence have turned into actual deadly violence with the murder of Charlie Kirk and other shootings by violent transexuals and the far liberal Left. It looks like we are not going to hug it out. In April, Klayman predicted, “If violence breaks out in a bigger way, Trump can declare martial law.” We have already seen this with mass violence against ICE in LA and President Trump cracking down on crime in Washington D.C. Now, Trump is heading to Memphis, and then on Chicago where dozens are shot every weekend. Klayman says don’t kid yourself, martial law is coming to a city near you–and coming soon. Klayman explains, “You cut off their funding, you cut off their food and they become wounded beasts or wounded animals. That’s what I said earlier. . .. Trump knows that right now, with the death of Charlie Kirk, he can basically run the table. We need to support him. I believe the flood gates are going to open. He now has a valid reason to take control on a temporary basis until you clear the rats out of these cities. This includes the rats like (Illinois Governor) Pritzker. He needs to be legally eliminated. Pritzker can do nothing about it if Trump declares martial law. . .. Whether Trump declares martial law immediately or not, I think it is still going to be soon. Trump said he is going into Chicago in a matter of days. You have tens of people killed every weekend and many wounded all the time. If that is not a situation where you need to declare martial law to restore order, I don’t know what is.”
Klayman says the Left is well organized and backed by billionaires funding them. That funding is beginning to be cut off. Trump has vowed to go after them with RICO cases. Trump has just declared groups such as Antifa domestic terrorists. Klayman says, “It is a war between the Right and the Left. The Right must win. We are right, and we must do it peacefully and legally. We must relegate these people to the ash heap of history. We can’t be sitting and listening to chamber music on the Titanic as the ship of state sinks. We can’t allow that to happen. They did not succeed the way they wanted to succeed with their court cases. They won some . . . but they saw they could not use lawfare anymore to take control of this country and to take it down to ground zero so they could enslave all of us. Now, they have gone to violence. Now, it’s clear the rats are out of the woodwork, and they want to kill us. They want to kill everyone of us. If you are out there talking and you are a conservative, Republican, Libertarian or a religious activist, you are in their line of fire.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter, Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org for 9.17.25.
harveyorganblog.com 
