SEPT 23/GOLD CLOSED UP ANOTHER $42.10 TODAY TO $3782.50 WHILE SILVER WAS UP 32 CENTS TO $44.30//PLATINUM CONTINUES ON A TEAR UP ANOTHER $70.90 TO $1491.50 WITH PALLADIUM UP $33.60 TO $1223.50//CHINA CONTINUES ITS PRESSURE IN DISPUTED WATERS//ITALY’ MILAN WITNESSES MASSIVE PROTESTS BY ANTIFA AND PALESTINIAN DISSIDENTS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES:; LAST 24 HRS PODCAST TBN ISRAEL//HEALTH ISSUES //DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEWS ADDICTS NEWSWIZE/EVOL NEWS/TRUMP GOING AFTER ANTIFA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 281 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 72 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 5 35 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 98 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 880 C CITIGROUP 37 905 C ADM 40
TOTAL: 286 286 MONTH TO DATE: 6,414
JPMORGAN STOPPED 0/22
SEPT
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 286 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 28600 OZ or 0.0684 TONNES
total notices so far: 6414 contracts for 641.400 OR 19.950 tonnes)
FOR SEPT
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SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.110 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 13,250 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 66.250 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $42.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MAMMOTH 6.11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.32 AT THE SLV:
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // A MASSIVE 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 494.121 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3946 CONTRACTS TO 167,003 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR MAMMOTH GAIN OF $1.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, CLOSING IN ON THE MAGIC ALL TIME HIGH OF $50.00. WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4346 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $42.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED MILES ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $40.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $43.98 GAINING $1.16 . WE FINALLY STOPPED HAVING THOSE MEGA MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE BUT STILL WITNESSING SOMETIMES LARGE ISSUANCE: HOWEVER TODAY’S TOTAL ISSUANCE WAS RECORDED AT A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACTS. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING WELL ABOVE THE 40.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND IS THE ORIGINAL HIGH POINT OF 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED 1062 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING / AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4346 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.16.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1062 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.16) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4346 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,
WE HAD A 400 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 49.825 MILLION OZ COUPLED WITH TODAY’S 0.210 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL 3.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT. ISSUANCE//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO TO 70.985 MILLION OZ///
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT: 70.985 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1062 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 242 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT.. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAY(S), total 7300 contracts: OR 36.500 MILLION OZ (486 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 36.500 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 36.500 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4488 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 400 ISSUED FOR DEC., AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 6 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 67.985 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 70.985 MILLION OZ. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (1062) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!!
WE HAD 22 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.110 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON COMPLETE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8151 OI CONTRACTS TO 530,457 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A RELATIVELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A huge 1405 CONTRACTS //.(ALL GOVERNMENT)
WE HAD AN INCREASE IN COMEX OI (8151 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $68.40 IN PRICE// MONDAY///.
LAST 5 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES:
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.8834 TONNES PLUS 0.000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 40.385 TONNES!!
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1050 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 531,862 / GETTING MUCH HIGHER AND WE NOW WITNESS A STRONG COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI OF 167,245 CONTRACTS
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8572 CONTRACTS WITH 8151 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 440 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8592 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED AND CRIMINAL 2068 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE ON THURSDAY. GOLD PRICE ON MONDAY ROSE BY $68.40
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(440) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 8151 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8592 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR SEPT AT 8.093 TONNES PLUS 0.8834 TONNES QUEUE JUMP PLUS 0.000 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH 20.096 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO = 40.385 TONNES.@!!!
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, SEPT CONTRACT AT 40.384 TONNES OF GOLD
.
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD 1)A $68.40 COMEX PRICE GAIN. WE HAD 2) ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8,592 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS BY THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY (TODAY = 0.8834 TONNES)
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (440 CONTRACTS)/// STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2068 T.A.S.CONTRACTS/
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 27,135 CONTRACTS OR 2,713,500 OZ OR 84.401 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1809 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 84.401 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 84.401 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
UNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 84.401 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3946 CONTRACTS OI TO 167,003 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 400 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 640 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3946 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4346 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.16 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 21.73 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.74 PTS OR 0.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 185.02 PTS OR 0.70%
// Nikkei CLOSED : HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1048 OFFSHORE CLOSED UIP AT 7.1126/ Oil UP TO 62.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1048 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1261 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8151 CONTRACTS TO 530,457 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $68.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT HUGE PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (400). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 8592 CONTRACTS (OR 26.72 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 3 MONTHS 68.542 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
AND NOW:
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SIX ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 6,461 CONTRACTS OR 646,100 OZ OR 20.096 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SIX ISSUANCES FOR 6461 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 646,100 OZ OR 20.096 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 113 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 113 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN DECEMBER 2024.
DETAILS ON SEPTEMBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8592 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A STRONG T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2068 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN DURING LAST NIGHT WITH MUCH FAILURE!!
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH PREVIOUS AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.8834 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0.000. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 20.096 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.385 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 241 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
AND NOW SEPTEMBER:
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 0.8834 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 0.0000 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY// NEW TOTALS OF 20.096 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH:
THAT IS;
A) 0.0000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY // =//TOTAL FOR MONTH EX FOPR RISK: 20.096 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) 0.8834 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP
TOTALS: 40.385 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2068 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2068 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2068 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY AND THUS NO EFFECT ON OUR TOTAL OPEN INTEREST!!
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEEN FINALIZED AS OF AUGUST 29 AND THEY FOR THE FIRST TIME CAUSED NO DAMAGE TO OUR GOLD PRICE.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 2068 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 20.096 TONNES.
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW SEPT:
SEPT: 20.389 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) +0.0000 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY//
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT = 40.385 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A STRONG $68.40./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY. MUCH OF THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO SPECULATIVE LONGS PILING INTO COMEX GOLD TRADING /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS, LET US SEE IF OUR CROOKS AGAIN FAIL ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK THIS WEEK, LIKE THEY DID IN AUGUST.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN TOTAL OF 26.72 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 0.8834 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 0.0000 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY/// TOTAL FOR MONTH TOTALS EX FOR RISK// MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 40.385 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $68.40
WE HAD A MAMMOTH 11,968 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8592 CONTRACTS OR 859200 0Z (26.72 TONNES)
i) 31,057.866 OZ ( HSBC) 966 kilobars ii) Into: Malca; 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
total deposit 63,205.866 oz 1966 kilobars
1.966 tonnes
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No of oz served (contracts) today
286 notice(s) 28600 OZ 0.7962 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
109 contracts 10900 OZ 0.3390 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6414 notices 6414,000 oz 19.950 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 4
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
i) 31,057.866 OZ ( HSBC) 966 kilobars ii) Into: Malca; 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
total deposit 63,205.866 oz 1966 kilobars
1.966 tonnes
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customer withdrawal
1 entries
i) Out of Brinks 803.775 oz
total withdrawal 803.775 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1
a) customer to dealer Manfra: 27,441.714 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 395 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 262 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 22 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 284 CONTRACTS OR 25,400 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 0.8834 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD TO OUR INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.8834 TONNES AND THEN ADD MONTH SEPT// EX FOR RISK = 20.096//(WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 0.000 TONNES EX. FOR RISK) THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.385 TONNES
OCTOBER LOST 2697 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 54,241
NOVEMBER GAINED 324 CONTRACTS UP TO 4088 CONTRACTS.
We had 286 contracts filed for today representing 28,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 286 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6414 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 395 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (286 x 100 oz per contract) equals 652,300 OZ OR 20.289 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK/SEPT MONTH OF 20.096 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.385 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (6414 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (395 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (286 x 100 oz) which equals 652,300 OZ OR 20.289 TONNES PLUS 20.096 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 40.385 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 40.385 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,017,117.237 oz 62.740 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,745,191/275 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,539,073.009 or 669.95 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,206,118.266 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,521959oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 607/21 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 23 2025
INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
0
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) Into Asahi 1,769.766.490 oz ii) Into CNT 610,220.280 oz
total deposit 2,369,986.870 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
22 CONTRACT(S) (0.110 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
347 contracts (1.735 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
13,250 Contracts (66.250 million oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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2 DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 entries
i) Into Asahi 1,769.766.490 oz ii) Into CNT 610,220.280 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 193.349 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 526/745 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 369 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 82 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 40 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 42 CONTRACTS OR 0.210 MILLION OZ ENTERTAINED AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND..//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX DECREASES TO 67.985 MILLION OZ. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 70.985 MILLION OZ
STANDING FOR SILVER: 70.985 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER GAINED 35 CONTRACTS TO 3000
NOVEMBER GAINED 111 CONTRACTS UP TO 2043.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 22 or 0.110 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 84.925 huge//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,250 X5,000 oz = 66.250 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (369) AND the number of notices served upon today (22 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (13,250) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(369) minus number of notices served upon today (22)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 67.985 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT TOTALLING 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 70.985 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 70.985 million oz which is HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 193/349 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/526.745 million. 39.90%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1000.67 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 494.121 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
JAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 241
5. COMMODITY REPORT URANIUM
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.74 PTS OR 0.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 185.02 PTS OR 0.70%
// Nikkei CLOSED : HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 7.1048 OFFSHORE CLOSED UIP AT 7.1126/ Oil UP TO 62.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 66.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN UP IN TRADING AT 7.1048 AND STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1261 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1048
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1126
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 185.02 PTS OR 0.70%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 96.89 EURO RISES TO 1.1809 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.659//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.53…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.174 DOWN 1/ 2 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7448 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.567 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.208
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.428
3j Gold at $3782.80 Silver at: 44.19 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 31 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 83.31
3m oil (WTI) into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.53/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.659% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.174 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7917 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9345 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.134 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.752 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3..592 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.42
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6910 DOWN 3 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.520 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.200 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.739 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Market Rally Pauses Ahead Of Powell Speech While Gold Propels To New Record Highs
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 08:33 AM
US equity futures are flat after Monday’s latest dose of AI excitement (where nobody seems to know where the funds will come from, but then again nobody seems to care) drove indexes to fresh highs. S&P futures are unchnaged, with Nasdaq 100 futures fractionally in the red, with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading as Semis have a slight bid. BA is +2.3% on a potential order stemming from the US/China trade talks. There’s a lot going on – from a looming government shutdown to surging Chinese exports – but no clear way to play it. Bond yields 1-2bps lower as the yield curve shifts lower; USD is flat. Cmdtys are mixed with crude and precious leading; gold +90bp as China moves to custody gold similar to NY Fed. OECD hikes global growth estimate for FY25 from 2.9% to 3.2% with US growth est. moving from 1.6% to 1.8% and 1.5% for FY26. OECD also predicts that the full impacts from tariffs have yet to be felt. The macro data focus is on Flash PMIs and regional Fed activity measures. Today’s main event is Fed Chair Powell’s economic outlook.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1%, Meta +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.03%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -1%).
ACM Research (ACMR) gains 5% as the stock is to replace WK Kellogg Co. in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the opening of trading on Sept. 26.
AutoZone (AZO) slips 2% after posting fourth-quarter results.
Boeing (BA) is up 2% after Uzbekistan Airways announced an order for as many as 22 of the US planemaker’s 787 Dreamliner jets, while US Ambassador to China David Perdue said the US and China are weeks away from finalizing negotiations on a “huge” Boeing order.
CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) climbs 2% after Melius Research upgraded the cloud-computing provider to buy, saying the firm is one of the beneficiaries “of accelerating cloud demand both right now and well into the future.”
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) falls 10% after the space and defense technology company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Kenvue (KVUE) gains 4% as President Donald Trump’s call for pregnant women to avoid Tylenol draws sharp criticism from researchers who say the advice ignores decades of evidence and could endanger mothers and babies.
Vistra Corp. (VST) slips 2% after the power producer was downgraded at Jefferies, which voiced concerns about the lack of announcement for a data-center deal for its Comanche Peak nuclear-power plant.
In corporate news, Disney said Jimmy Kimmel Live! will return to the air on Tuesday following a backlash. Nvidia assured customers that its landmark deal with OpenAI won’t affect the chipmaker’s relationship with other clients. Zijin Gold International Co., which is currently taking orders to raise $3.2 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering in months, may have to delay its trading debut in Hong Kong next week because of super typhoon Ragasa. China Vanke Co. is in talks with major domestic creditors to cut borrowing costs on private debt worth tens of billions of yuan, as the embattled developer seeks to ease liquidity stress, according to people familiar with the matter.
US stock futures wavered early on, repeating a pattern of the past two sessions that gave way to extended rallies. There was no pause for Gold however: the yellow metal’s unprecedented rally pushed higher on efforts by China to bolster its role in global bullion markets. Bullion powered beyond $3,780 an ounce, putting the metal on track for its best month since 2020. The rally gained fresh momentum on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the People’s Bank of China is looking to be a custodian of sovereign reserves, courting friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within its borders.
Investors are rushing to gold as the prospect of rapid US interest rate cuts enhances the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. The metal is also drawing haven demand amid geopolitical upheaval and pressure on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration to lower rates, stocking fears about inflation.
Traders are awaiting fresh Fed signals ahead of a speech by Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday as earnings season looms as the next big test for stocks. Coming up as well is the first of three shorter-term debt auctions, beginning with a $69 billion sale of two-year notes.
“The cross-asset landscape is defined by the duality of tech-driven sentiment, embodied by Nvidia’s outsized role in AI, and policy scrutiny over Fed independence,” wrote Pepperstone research strategist Ahmad Assiri. “Equities continue to enjoy a positive tilt, the dollar struggles to find upside traction while gold has cemented itself as the market’s most compelling anchor.”
US stocks are holding gains from a $15 trillion rally since April’s lows, shaking off trade tensions and concerns about stretched valuations as traders bet a dovish Fed will fuel earnings amid excitement over artificial intelligence. The view was reinforced Monday as Nvidia pledged to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI, although this has sparked questions about the circular nature of funding in AI and making many wonder where the money will come from:
While AI companies have been quick to unveil plans for spending, they’ve been slower to show how they will pull in revenue to cover those expenses. Consulting firm Bain & Co. predicted that firms will need to find a combined $2 trillion to fund computing power by 2030, but their revenue is likely to fall $800 billion short of that.
“With the Fed turning dovish, the risk is that if you’re on the sidelines and the market moves away from you, you’ll never be able to catch up,” said Patrick Brenner, chief investment officer of multi-asset at Schroders Plc. “We have some exposure but we’re not completely risk-on. If we see a dip, we are ready to buy more.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% after data showed the euro area’s private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months. Nearly all European sectors in the green, lifted by utilities and European wind energy companies, after a US judge ruled Denmark’s Orsted could resume work on its nearly-completed wind farm. The retail sector is the best performer, lifted by Kingfisher, which rose as much as 20% after the home-improvement group raised its full-year guidance. The biggest laggards are healthcare and insurance equities. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Kingfisher shares rise as much as 20%, the most since September 2008, after first-half earnings surpassed analysts’ estimates and the home-improvement retailer raised its full-year guidance to the upper end of the expected range
Orsted shares gain as much as 12% after a US judge ruled that the Danish wind-farm developer can resume work on its nearly-completed wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island during a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s stop-work order
Heineken shares climb as much as 2.4%, the most in more than a month, after the brewer said it will buy Florida Ice and Farm Company’s beverage and retail businesses in a $3.2 billion cash deal
Smiths shares rise to the highest level on record, climbing as much as 7.2%, after reporting group operating profit for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate
Hoist Finance shares rise as much as 11%, the most since July, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying that an expected change in the Swedish debt restructuring firm’s status should allow for payouts to shareholders
Land Securities rises as much as 4.4%, the most since April, after the commercial real estate firm said it remains on track to deliver its growth guidance this year ahead of its capital markets day
THG shares rise as much as 8.5% to the highest since February after JP Morgan upgraded its rating on the the online retailer to neutral from underweight
ASM International shares fall as much as 6.4% after the Dutch chip equipment maker reduced its outlook for second half of the year, citing lower-than-expected demand among both leading-edge logic and mature chip markets
Hanza falls as much as 12%, the most since February, after Pareto Securities cut its recommendation on the Swedish contract manufacturer to hold from buy, saying it’s time to move to the sidelines after shares climbed over 100% in the past 12 months
Raspberry Pi shares fall as much as 8.4% after the British PC maker reported a 6% drop in first-half sales, against a high comparison basis last year due to the launch of Pi 5
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks struggled for direction as a rally in semiconductor companies was offset by losses in China and Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan was little changed, after earlier rising 0.4%. Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung Electronics provided the biggest boost following Nvidia’s announcement of as much as $100 billion investment in OpenAI to build data centers. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell more than 1% as a months-long rally took a breather. Baidu’s shares slumped most since April after a 50% jump in the stock price this month. Asian stocks have had a stellar run this year as a weaker US dollar and cheaper valuations drove investors away from American assets. The region’s equities are on track to outperform US peers by the most since 2017.
In FX, the pound falls after UK PMIs miss expectations across the board. Swedish krona tops G-10 currencies after surprise cut but a hawkish outlook from the Riksbank.
In rates, Treasuries see small rally across the curve with yields lower by 1bp to 2bp on the day. UK Gilts outperform in fixed income, with 10-year yields falling about three basis points following lower-than-expected UK PMI data for September. At the same time, the UK’s 30-year bond sale got the fewest orders since 2022. The rally in gilts supports gains in Treasuries after the UK curve bull flattened. US session focus includes manufacturing PMIs and 2-year note auction. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 12:35pm New York.
In commodities, WTI futures push higher into early US session and trade over 1% up on the day, capping additional gains in Treasuries. Brent trades above $67/barrel. Gold blows past more records, up about $42 for the session to $3,789/oz.
Today’s US economic data slate includes September Philly Fed non-manufacturing, 2Q current account balance (8:30am), September manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am, 3:30pm), Bowman (9am), Bostic (10am) and Powell (12:35pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini little changed
Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
DAX +0.7%
CAC 40 +0.9%
10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.13%
VIX little changed at 16.07
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1195.71
euro little changed at $1.1809
WTI crude +0.5% at $62.57/barrel
Top Overnight News
President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will seek more support from allies when he addresses the UN and meets Donald Trump this week, but behind the scenes Kyiv is quietly preparing for a new phase of the war in which it relies more on itself and its hopes of winning tough new US sanctions on Russia are fading. RTRS
US President Trump said the FDA will warn physicians about a potential link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use in pregnancy and autism risk; he advised pregnant women to avoid Tylenol and said do not take it. Trump also said MMR vaccines should be taken separately and that there is no reason for newborns to be given the Hepatitis B vaccine, according to Reuters.
Trump will meet this week with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to discuss government funding ahead of a looming shutdown deadline. Politico
AI companies face an $800 billion revenue shortfall by 2030, Bain warned, threatening their ability to fund computing power needed to meet demand. BBG
Jamie Dimon, on Fed rate cuts, said further reductions will be difficult: CNBC
The OECD warned that the world economy has yet to feel the full impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, despite recent resilience. It raised its forecast for world growth to 3.2% this year, but expects it to moderate to 2.9% in 2026 amid higher import duties. BBG
Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met political and business leaders from the U.S. Midwest, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, with analysts speculating the region’s food exports will be key to any U.S.-China trade deal. U.S.-China commercial ties had featured in Monday’s talks, the ministry said in a statement, without giving details. RTRS
China is pushing to become custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves, people familiar said. The PBOC is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks in friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within the country’s borders. BBG
The euro-area private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 16 months, driven by strong German services offsetting a slump in France. The PMI rose to 51.2, beating expectations. UK PMIs missed across the board. BBG
Sweden’s Riksbank eased interest rates to 1.75% and signaled a pause ahead, aiming to support economic recovery. No further easing is expected through 2028. BBG
ASM International shares fell after cutting its second-half revenue outlook, citing weaker demand from some its clients. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon noted tariffs could be modestly inflationary but uncertain if the impact is temporary, via Times of India interview.
US lawmaker Smith noted the intention to improve communication channels between China and the US.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts, whilst there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday. ASX 200 eked gains, once again lifted by gold miners as the yellow metal printed fresh all-time highs, although upside was capped by a deterioration in Flash PMIs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded lower with catalysts sparse, but amid the hangover from the anticlimactic Trump-Xi call last week, whilst Hong Kong markets braced for the Super Typhoon, expected to be the worst since at least 2018. KOSPI was again supported by the strong performance in its Tech sector after the NVIDIA/OpenAI announcement. Nifty 50 trimmed its earlier mild gains with the index continuing to be hampered by the US H-1B visa update.
Top Asian News
Japanese PM contender Takaichi proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. She said policymakers should be mindful of the risk of causing a yield rise when guiding fiscal policy, but noted that when interest rates rise, so would interest from government assets, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. He said Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Hayashi said they must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending and keep sending signals to the market that Japan will maintain fiscal discipline, according to Reuters.
New Zealand is set to appoint its first female RBNZ Governor; announcement to come as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened with a slight positive bias, with a couple of indices opening lower. However, as the session progressed, sentiment picked up a touch, and sauntered higher to current peaks. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of industries residing marginally in the red. Retail takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in Kingfisher (+17%) after it reported strong metrics and upgraded its guidance. Healthcare is found right at the foot of the pile, no company-specific drivers but perhaps some jitters surrounding Trump’s move to link paracetamol use during pregnancy with autism.
Top European News
Riksbank Rate: 1.75% vs. Exp. 2.00% (Prev. 2.00%), Seim dissented, wanted U/C; “If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.”
Riksbank decision on their holding of long-term Swedish gov’t bonds: “Riksbank has now decided that the holding will be allowed to fluctuate between SEK 18-22bln.” vs prev. SEK 20bln in order to facilitate efficient trading.
Riksbank’s Thedeen says that the Bank sees a pretty strong recovery ahead; labour market has weakened noticeably.
OECD sees global growth at 3.2% in 2025 (prev. view of 2.9%) with the 2026 projection held at 2.9%.
BoE’s Pill says the UK’s approach to QE is more transparent than elsewhere, via Bloomberg; wanted to keep QT at GBP 100bln at the last meeting. Says UK inflation has proved more stubborn than expected, via Bloomberg
FX
DXY is a touch higher after yesterday’s downside. Macro focus for the US at the start of the week has mainly focussed on Fed speak with policymakers (ex-Miran) largely taken a cautious approach to further easing. To recap, 2026 voter Hammack noted that she has one of the higher estimates of neutral and judges that policy is only modestly restrictive. Today’s speaker highlight will be Fed Chair Powell at 17:35BST, who will be speaking on the economic outlook and in a more personal capacity to that seen last week at the Fed press conference. Other speakers today include 2025 voters Goolsbee and Bowman. On the data slate, flash PMIs are due. However, these often play second-fiddle in the US to the ISM series. DXY delved as low as 97.19 overnight before move back above Monday’s 97.29 low.
EUR was knocked lower in early trade following a dismal PMI report from France, which saw all three key metrics, decline from the prior, miss analyst consensus and sit in contractionary territory. The accompanying report noted that “the increasingly tense domestic political situation likely to have a negative impact on household consumption and investment decisions.” As such, HCOB expects “GDP growth rates to be between 0.5 and 1 percent in both 2025 and 2026”. Thereafter, the German release saw the manufacturing print dissapoint by remaining in contractionary territory. However, this was offset by an unexpected expansion in the services sector, which helped the composite remain above the 50 threshold and EUR fade French-induced downside. The Eurozone data reflected the trend seen in Germany (servives > manufacutring), however, the associated report suggested that “we’re still a long way from seeing any real momentum.” EUR/USD has returned to a 1.17 handle.
Overnight, USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.68) and dipped under Monday’s low (147.66), before recovering amid a lack of noteworthy drivers and with Japanese participants away on the Autumnal Equinox holiday. Ahead of the LDP leadership election, poll leader Takaichi has proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. Her closest rival, Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. However, Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline.
GBP sits at the foot of the G10 leaderboard following a dissapointing showing for September flash PMI metrics. All three metrics fell short of expectations with the services and composite prints remaining in expansionary territory but below the bottom end of analyst consensus. Manufacturing delved further into contractionary mode. The accompanying release noted “September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses”. Cable ventured as high as 1.3528 overnight before slipping back onto a 1.34 handle with a current session low at 1.3488.
Antipodeans softened overnight amid weakness in Chinese markets. AUD/USD was also weighed on by a marked deterioration in Flash PMIs, albeit the data remained in expansion territory. NZD/USD was subdued, whilst Bloomberg sources suggested a new RBNZ Governor could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
Alongside a split consensus between a 25bps reduction and an unchanged rate, the Riksbank opted to cut the policy rate by 25bps. The decision to do so was subject to hawkish dissent from Seim on account of her concerns over potential upside inflation surprises stemming supply side and fiscal factors. Offsetting the dovish impule from the rate cut was accompanying commentary that the Bank expects the policy rate to “remain at this level for some time to come.” Two-way price action in EUR/SEK, given it the announcement shared the release timing with German PMIs; but overall EUR/SEK ended up heading back to above pre-release levels.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1066 (Prev. 7.1106)
RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee after hitting record lows, according to Reuters, citing traders
Fixed Income
USTs came under modest pressure overnight, to a 112-21+ low before gradually picking up into and throughout the European morning. Upside that occurred despite the constructive European risk tone and the slight pressure seen in Bunds at the time. Nothing particularly fresh in European hours for US participants, as we digest the numerous Fed speakers seen yesterday and look to today’s packed docket featuring Chair Powell; remarks that will allow the Chair to give his rather than the overall Fed’s view on monetary policy and the economy. Within the comments, any language around the neutral rate will draw focus given the range of views outlined in recent sessions.
Bunds are softer by a handful of ticks. Began the day softer before lifting into the green in-line with USTs at first. French measures came in weaker across the board and outside the forecast range. HCOB wrote that activity weakened more sharply than at any point since April and forward-looking indicators not suggesting any major improvements in the coming months. Thereafter, the generally stronger German measures sent Bunds to a 128.15 low with downside of 11 ticks at most. Limited reaction to the EZ-wide figures. Further out, HCOB writes that “the outlook for manufacturing is looking a bit cloudy”. German auction was a little softer-than-prior but sparked little moved.
Gilts opened near-enough unchanged. Modest action in-fitting with Bunds alongside the European PMI metrics. Thereafter, the UK’s own figures were softer than expected across the board and markedly so for the services and composite measures. Within the series, S&P said it brought a “litany” of worrying news with the only good news being a moderation of price pressure. Ahead, surmising that “…it’s unlikely that the economy will make any strong gains in the months ahead irrespective of the outlook for interest rates.” A series that lifted Gilts by around 15 ticks to a 91.06 high with gains of 22 ticks at best. And at the time the clear outperformer. Thereafter, supply was poor. The first outing of the 2056 line saw a strong cover in excess of 3x but a substantial 20.5 tick price tail. Results of this weighed on Gilts and saw nearly all of the PMI move retraced, Gilts remain the outperformer but only marginally and are back towards the midpoint of 90.75-91.06 parameters.
UK sells GBP 1.5bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: b/c 3.07x, average yield 5.476%, tail 1.4bps.
A softer start to the session for crude, at most benchmarks lower by around USD 0.45/bbl. However, across the European morning the benchmarks have been gradually lifting off lows and moving to just above the unchanged mark on the session. Currently, towards the upper-end of USD 61.85-62.53/bbl and USD 66.10-66.75/bbl parameters for WTI and Brent respectively.
Spot gold is continuing to climb and at another ATH of USD 3780/oz. A high that occurred after a Bloomberg report that China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market. Prior to this, the narrative for gold hadn’t really changed, with the strength underpinned generally by the Fed’s easing cycle, day-to-day by ongoing geopolitical headlines and aided by numerous desks lifting their forecasts for the precious metal.
Copper picked up overnight in reaction to the strong US risk tone amid the NVIDIA and OpenAI update. However, the complex failed to glean much from this with 3M LME Copper dipping back below the USD 10k/t mark and into the red.
China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market, via Bloomberg. The PBoC is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to country central banks in allied countries to buy bullion and store it within China.
Chile’s development agency Corfo informed the comptroller office of contract changes to enable the Codelco-SQM lithium deal, according to Reuters.
Congo President noted intention to strengthen partnership with US, focusing on mining sector and infrastructure development but rules out auctioning mineral resources to US, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: NATO-Russia
Sweden’s Defence Minister said “Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary”, according to Swedish press.
“Unidentified drones over Stockholm, the capital of Sweden”, according to unconfirmed local reports cited by geopolitical watchers on X.
Oslo Airport spokesperson confirmed airspace has been closed since midnight local time due to drone sightings, with all flights diverted to nearby airports, according to Reuters.
Copenhagen airport reopened following closure due to drone activity, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Kremlin says time is short and allowing nuclear treaty with the US to expire would be fraught with risks for international security; Not clear yet when Russian President Putin and US President Trump will speak again
Geopolitics: Middle East
EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, according to WSJ’s Norman.
Trump to present Arab leaders with US principles for ending Gaza war, and the US seeks agreement from Arab and Muslim nations to deploy troops to Gaza, facilitating Israeli withdrawal and securing transition funding, according to Axios.
UKMTO reports incident 120 nautical miles east of Yemen’s Aden; reports splash and sound of an explosion in its vicinity, crews and vessel reported safe.
Geopolitics: Others
The White House said US President Trump will meet with the UN Secretary General and leaders of Ukraine, Argentina and the EU at the UN, and will also hold a multilateral meeting with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said he will discuss F-35 negotiations with US President Trump during the upcoming meeting, via Fox News interview.
US, South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, according to a statement.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -256.55b, prior -450.17b
9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.2, prior 53
9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 53.95, prior 54.5
9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54, prior 54.6
10:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Live Podcast Interview
12:35 pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
3:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on ABC News Live
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Our Q3 survey launched yesterday with questions on your perception of Fed independence, where we are with German stimulus versus early year expectations and whether there is a bubble in various asset classes. Regular questions also get an airing to see where your views have evolved over the months, quarters and years. It will stay open until Thursday morning and all help filling it in will be gratefully appreciated. You can complete here. Speaking of surveys, Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan have just published highlights from our exclusive dbDataInsights survey of AI use and fears among people in Europe and the US. Young people are most worried, while their older colleagues aren’t bothered. Click here for more.
Risk assets continued to move higher over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.44%) racing ahead to yet another record high. Tech news again drove this optimism as Nvidia (+3.93%) announced a strategic deal with OpenAI that will see the chipmaker invest as much as $100bn in helping OpenAI build new data centers and other AI infrastructure. In turn, the NASDAQ (+0.70%) the Mag-7 (+0.75%) also hit new highs, with the Mag-7 now up +20.43% year-to-date.
So increasingly, the profile of US equity gains is looking very much like 2023 and 2024 again, where the annual gains are being driven by a very narrow group of stocks. Indeed, the S&P 500 is now up +13.81% so far this year, whereas the equal-weighted version is only up +7.65%. Or in other words, it’s been the Magnificent 7 driving the gains, and most of the index has seen a steady, but not spectacular performance this year. As my CoTD showed yesterday (link here), the spectacular performance has been away from the US where we also showed that there has been a decent correlation between low starting valuations for 2025 and strong returns.
The other asset class to reach yet more record highs was gold, which rose +1.67% to $3,747/oz and now up more than +42% on a YTD basis. So that now leaves gold prices well on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, when prices surged +127% against the backdrop of the oil crisis after the Iranian Revolution, which caused a fresh surge for inflation and led investors to seek out gold as a hedge against that. In real terms gold prices didn’t actually cross the highs seen around this time until earlier this month some 45 years later (see my CoTD last week here on this). While gold hit a fresh record, Bitcoin moved lower (-2.20%), along with the likes of Ethereum (-6.55%) as some momentum has come out of crypto in the last several days. On this topic Marion in my team published a paper yesterday that posits Gold and Bitcoin as viable alternatives to the dollar for Central Bank reserve assets. It’s full of interesting charts and you can find it on our Research Institute site here.
For rates markets, this week was always going to mostly be about Fedspeak and the week kicked off in a slightly hawkish direction on that front, notwithstanding Miran’s expectedly dovish comments. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-voter) gave an interview with the WSJ, where he said he only pencilled in one rate cut for this year, and that he was “concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time”. Later on, St Louis Fed President Musalem (voter) said that “there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative”, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack (non-voter) suggested policy was only “very mildly” restrictive. So by and large there was a reluctance to firmly commit to further easing. Admittedly, Governor Miran gave a speech in which he described policy as “very restrictive” and argued that “the appropriate fed funds rate is in the mid-2 percent area”. But given Miran was outvoted at the last meeting as the only member to vote for a 50bp cut, markets weren’t reactive to his remarks as a signpost for near-term policy.
Those comments led investors to slightly dial back the expected pace of rate cuts over the months ahead. For instance by the close, futures priced in 43bps of cuts by the December meeting, down -1.7bps compared to Friday. So, there’s high confidence that we’ll get one more cut this year, but a bit more doubt on the second. And it’s worth remembering that it would have only taken one member to shift the median dot back from 3 cuts in 2025 to 2, so it was already on a knife-edge at the last meeting. Meanwhile, with investors dialling back their rate cut pricing, that led to a uptick in Treasury yields across the curve. So, the 2yr yield (+3.1bps) rose to 3.60%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.0bps) moved up to 4.15%. We’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell as well today, but given there haven’t been material data developments since last week’s press conference, our US economists expect his tone to align closely with his remarks last week.
Back in Europe, there was a bit more of a risk-off tone yesterday, with the STOXX 600 down -0.13%. That included an underperformance for the DAX (-0.49%), which was driven by declines for Porsche (-8.22%) and its parent Volkswagen (-7.09%) after they cut their forecast for this year’s profit. So that left the two as the worst performers in the DAX index. Meanwhile, sovereigns also lost modest ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+1.2bps) all moving higher. We’re getting closer to the start of the German fiscal money hitting the economy as we edge towards Q4. Our economists believe that the money will materialise quickly. Over the summer it does seem that money originally earmarked for infrastructure has been diverted more towards consumption-oriented spending. That actually might get into the economy quicker but will cast doubts over whether the long-run growth rate will be influenced as much as hoped. Elsewhere UK assets saw a relatively stronger performance, with the FTSE 100 (+0.11%) and 10yr gilts (-0.3bps) both rallying.
Asian equity markets are mixed with low trading volumes given there is a Japanese holiday. In the region, Chinese stocks are at the forefront of losses, with the Hang Seng (-0.92%) lower as local technology stocks pull back from a remarkable rally over the past month. The CSI (-0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.96%) are also trading significantly lower, as risk sentiment fluctuates between hopes for stimulus and signs of sluggish domestic growth. Conversely, the KOSPI (+0.33%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.55%) are higher. US equity futures are down just under a tenth of a percent with US Treasuries not yet trading due to the Japanese holiday.
Early morning data indicated that Australia’s business activity growth decelerated in September, hindered by weaker new orders and renewed pressures on exports. The S&P Global Flash composite PMI for Australia decreased to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in August, remaining above the 50 threshold for the 12th consecutive month. The services activity index fell to 52.0 from 55.8 the previous month, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.6 from 53.0 as output growth also slowed.
Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the September flash PMIs from the US and Europe. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman and Bostic, and the ECB’s Muller, Kocher and Cipollone.
2b European opening report
US equity futures are flat, awaiting Fed Chair Powell and Trump; GBP hit on PMIs – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 06:20 AM
European bourses gradually climb higher and currently at peaks; US equity futures are flat awaiting Fed Chair Powell.
GBP hit by soft PMI, Eurozone data showed diverging fortunes for manufacturing and services.
USTs are essentially flat; Gilts modestly out-edge peers following disappointing flash PMI metrics.
Crude initially in the red but have managed to climb higher, XAU at another ATH, catching a bid on reports that China aims to become custodian of foreign gold reserves.
Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB’s Cipollone, BoC’s Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from the US; Earnings from Micron.
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TRADE/TARIFFS
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon noted tariffs could be modestly inflationary but uncertain if the impact is temporary, via Times of India interview.
US lawmaker Smith noted the intention to improve communication channels between China and the US.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened with a slight positive bias, with a couple of indices opening lower. However, as the session progressed, sentiment picked up a touch, and sauntered higher to current peaks.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of industries residing marginally in the red. Retail takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in Kingfisher (+17%) after it reported strong metrics and upgraded its guidance. Healthcare is found right at the foot of the pile, no company-specific drivers but perhaps some jitters surrounding Trump’s move to link paracetamol use during pregnancy with autism.
US equity futures (ES U/C NQ U/C RTY U/C) are modestly mixed on either side of the unchanged mark, with the ES/NQ holding afloat whilst the RTY is incrementally lower.
ASM International (ASM NA): Confirms Q3 Revenue guidance -5% to flat, lowers H2 guidance, due to lower-than-exp. demand in leading-edge logic and foundry. Cuts FY25 Revenue guide to the “low end” of +10-20% (prev. guided “mid-point” +10-20% Y/Y). Bookings in H2’25: demand weakness in leading-edge logic and foundry is projected to result in a book-to-bill of below 1 in H2’25.
Foxconn’s (2345 TT) main iPhone (AAPL) unit is halting work at its Shenzhen campus due to the local typhoon; will resume work once the Government lifts its warning, via Bloomberg
DXY is a touch higher after yesterday’s downside. Macro focus for the US at the start of the week has mainly focussed on Fed speak with policymakers (ex-Miran) largely taken a cautious approach to further easing. To recap, 2026 voter Hammack noted that she has one of the higher estimates of neutral and judges that policy is only modestly restrictive. Today’s speaker highlight will be Fed Chair Powell at 17:35BST, who will be speaking on the economic outlook and in a more personal capacity to that seen last week at the Fed press conference. Other speakers today include 2025 voters Goolsbee and Bowman. On the data slate, flash PMIs are due. However, these often play second-fiddle in the US to the ISM series. DXY delved as low as 97.19 overnight before move back above Monday’s 97.29 low.
EUR was knocked lower in early trade following a dismal PMI report from France, which saw all three key metrics, decline from the prior, miss analyst consensus and sit in contractionary territory. The accompanying report noted that “the increasingly tense domestic political situation likely to have a negative impact on household consumption and investment decisions.” As such, HCOB expects “GDP growth rates to be between 0.5 and 1 percent in both 2025 and 2026“. Thereafter, the German release saw the manufacturing print dissapoint by remaining in contractionary territory. However, this was offset by an unexpected expansion in the services sector, which helped the composite remain above the 50 threshold and EUR fade French-induced downside. The Eurozone data reflected the trend seen in Germany (servives > manufacutring), however, the associated report suggested that “we’re still a long way from seeing any real momentum.” EUR/USD has returned to a 1.17 handle.
Overnight, USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.68) and dipped under Monday’s low (147.66), before recovering amid a lack of noteworthy drivers and with Japanese participants away on the Autumnal Equinox holiday. Ahead of the LDP leadership election, poll leader Takaichi has proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. Her closest rival, Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. However, Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline.
GBP sits at the foot of the G10 leaderboard following a dissapointing showing for September flash PMI metrics. All three metrics fell short of expectations with the services and composite prints remaining in expansionary territory but below the bottom end of analyst consensus. Manufacturing delved further into contractionary mode. The accompanying release noted “September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses”. Cable ventured as high as 1.3528 overnight before slipping back onto a 1.34 handle with a current session low at 1.3488.
Antipodeans softened overnight amid weakness in Chinese markets. AUD/USD was also weighed on by a marked deterioration in Flash PMIs, albeit the data remained in expansion territory. NZD/USD was subdued, whilst Bloomberg sources suggested a new RBNZ Governor could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
Alongside a split consensus between a 25bps reduction and an unchanged rate, the Riksbank opted to cut the policy rate by 25bps. The decision to do so was subject to hawkish dissent from Seim on account of her concerns over potential upside inflation surprises stemming supply side and fiscal factors. Offsetting the dovish impule from the rate cut was accompanying commentary that the Bank expects the policy rate to “remain at this level for some time to come.” Two-way price action in EUR/SEK, given it the announcement shared the release timing with German PMIs; but overall EUR/SEK ended up heading back to above pre-release levels.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1066 (Prev. 7.1106)
RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee after hitting record lows, according to Reuters, citing traders
USTs came under modest pressure overnight, to a 112-21+ low before gradually picking up into and throughout the European morning. Upside that occurred despite the constructive European risk tone and the slight pressure seen in Bunds at the time. Nothing particularly fresh in European hours for US participants, as we digest the numerous Fed speakers seen yesterday and look to today’s packed docket featuring Chair Powell; remarks that will allow the Chair to give his rather than the overall Fed’s view on monetary policy and the economy. Within the comments, any language around the neutral rate will draw focus given the range of views outlined in recent sessions.
Bunds are softer by a handful of ticks. Began the day softer before lifting into the green in-line with USTs at first. French measures came in weaker across the board and outside the forecast range. HCOB wrote that activity weakened more sharply than at any point since April and forward-looking indicators not suggesting any major improvements in the coming months. Thereafter, the generally stronger German measures sent Bunds to a 128.15 low with downside of 11 ticks at most. Limited reaction to the EZ-wide figures. Further out, HCOB writes that “the outlook for manufacturing is looking a bit cloudy”. German auction was a little softer-than-prior but sparked little moved.
Gilts opened near-enough unchanged. Modest action in-fitting with Bunds alongside the European PMI metrics. Thereafter, the UK’s own figures were softer than expected across the board and markedly so for the services and composite measures. Within the series, S&P said it brought a “litany” of worrying news with the only good news being a moderation of price pressure. Ahead, surmising that “…it’s unlikely that the economy will make any strong gains in the months ahead irrespective of the outlook for interest rates.” A series that lifted Gilts by around 15 ticks to a 91.06 high with gains of 22 ticks at best. And at the time the clear outperformer. Thereafter, supply was poor. The first outing of the 2056 line saw a strong cover in excess of 3x but a substantial 20.5 tick price tail. Results of this weighed on Gilts and saw nearly all of the PMI move retraced, Gilts remain the outperformer but only marginally and are back towards the midpoint of 90.75-91.06 parameters.
UK sells GBP 1.5bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: b/c 3.07x, average yield 5.476%, tail 1.4bps.
A softer start to the session for crude, at most benchmarks lower by around USD 0.45/bbl. However, across the European morning the benchmarks have been gradually lifting off lows and moving to just above the unchanged mark on the session. Currently, towards the upper-end of USD 61.85-62.53/bbl and USD 66.10-66.75/bbl parameters for WTI and Brent respectively.
Spot gold is continuing to climb and at another ATH of USD 3780/oz. A high that occurred after a Bloomberg report that China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market. Prior to this, the narrative for gold hadn’t really changed, with the strength underpinned generally by the Fed’s easing cycle, day-to-day by ongoing geopolitical headlines and aided by numerous desks lifting their forecasts for the precious metal.
Copper picked up overnight in reaction to the strong US risk tone amid the NVIDIA and OpenAI update. However, the complex failed to glean much from this with 3M LME Copper dipping back below the USD 10k/t mark and into the red.
China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market, via Bloomberg. The PBoC is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to country central banks in allied countries to buy bullion and store it within China.
Chile’s development agency Corfo informed the comptroller office of contract changes to enable the Codelco-SQM lithium deal, according to Reuters.
Congo President noted intention to strengthen partnership with US, focusing on mining sector and infrastructure development but rules out auctioning mineral resources to US, according to Reuters.
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 51.2 vs. Exp. 51.1 (Prev. 51); Services Flash PMI (Sep) 51.4 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.5); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.7)
French HCOB Services Flash PMI (Sep) 48.9 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.8); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 48.1 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.4); Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.8)
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 52.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.5); Services Flash PMI (Sep) 52.5 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.3); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 48.5 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.8)
UK Flash Composite PMI (Sep) 51.0 vs. Exp. 53 (Prev. 53.5); Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 46.2 vs. Exp. 47.1 (Prev. 47); Services PMI (Sep) 51.9 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 54.2)
UK CBI Trends – Orders (Sep) -27.0 (Prev. -33.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Riksbank Rate: 1.75% vs. Exp. 2.00% (Prev. 2.00%), Seim dissented, wanted U/C; “If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.”
Riksbank decision on their holding of long-term Swedish gov’t bonds: “Riksbank has now decided that the holding will be allowed to fluctuate between SEK 18-22bln.” vs prev. SEK 20bln in order to facilitate efficient trading.
Riksbank’s Thedeen says that the Bank sees a pretty strong recovery ahead; labour market has weakened noticeably.
OECD sees global growth at 3.2% in 2025 (prev. view of 2.9%) with the 2026 projection held at 2.9%.
BoE’s Pill says the UK’s approach to QE is more transparent than elsewhere, via Bloomberg; wanted to keep QT at GBP 100bln at the last meeting. Says UK inflation has proved more stubborn than expected, via Bloomberg
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly
US President Trump will meet with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer this week, according to Punchbowl News.
US President Trump said the FDA will warn physicians about a potential link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use in pregnancy and autism risk; he advised pregnant women to avoid Tylenol and said do not take it. Trump also said MMR vaccines should be taken separately and that there is no reason for newborns to be given the Hepatitis B vaccine, according to Reuters.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon, on Fed rate cuts, said further reductions will be difficult, via CNBC-TV18.
GEOPOLITICS
NATO-RUSSIA
Sweden’s Defence Minister said “Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary”, according to Swedish press.
“Unidentified drones over Stockholm, the capital of Sweden”, according to unconfirmed local reports cited by geopolitical watchers on X.
Oslo Airport spokesperson confirmed airspace has been closed since midnight local time due to drone sightings, with all flights diverted to nearby airports, according to Reuters.
Copenhagen airport reopened following closure due to drone activity, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Kremlin says time is short and allowing nuclear treaty with the US to expire would be fraught with risks for international security; Not clear yet when Russian President Putin and US President Trump will speak again
MIDDLE EAST
EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, according to WSJ’s Norman.
Trump to present Arab leaders with US principles for ending Gaza war, and the US seeks agreement from Arab and Muslim nations to deploy troops to Gaza, facilitating Israeli withdrawal and securing transition funding, according to Axios.
UKMTO reports incident 120 nautical miles east of Yemen’s Aden; reports splash and sound of an explosion in its vicinity, crews and vessel reported safe.
OTHERS
The White House said US President Trump will meet with the UN Secretary General and leaders of Ukraine, Argentina and the EU at the UN, and will also hold a multilateral meeting with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said he will discuss F-35 negotiations with US President Trump during the upcoming meeting, via Fox News interview.
US, South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, according to a statement.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a little firmer, and Ethereum mildly outperforms attempting to pare back recent losses.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts, whilst there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
ASX 200 eked gains, once again lifted by gold miners as the yellow metal printed fresh all-time highs, although upside was capped by a deterioration in Flash PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded lower with catalysts sparse, but amid the hangover from the anticlimactic Trump-Xi call last week, whilst Hong Kong markets braced for the Super Typhoon, expected to be the worst since at least 2018.
KOSPI was again supported by the strong performance in its Tech sector after the NVIDIA/OpenAI announcement.
Nifty 50 trimmed its earlier mild gains with the index continuing to be hampered by the US H-1B visa update.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese PM contender Takaichi proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. She said policymakers should be mindful of the risk of causing a yield rise when guiding fiscal policy, but noted that when interest rates rise, so would interest from government assets, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. He said Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Hayashi said they must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending and keep sending signals to the market that Japan will maintain fiscal discipline, according to Reuters.
New Zealand is set to appoint its first female RBNZ Governor; announcement to come as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources.
DATA RECAP
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 52.0 (Prev. 55.8)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 51.6 (Prev. 53.0)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 52.1 (Prev. 55.5)
South Korean PPI Growth YY (Aug) 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.5%); MM (Aug) -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.4%)
2c. Asia /opening report
NVIDIA & OpenAI strategic partnership, PMIs & numerous speakers ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 01:27 AM
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts. there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI.
US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly; EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, Riksbank Announcement; NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB’s Cipollone, BoC’s Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany, US; Earnings from Micron, Kingfisher.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed higher on Monday, owing a large part of the gains to a strategic partnership announced between NVIDIA and OpenAI. The deal is to see NVDA invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI, deploying 10GW of AI centres, first to deploy in 2026. NVDA (+3.9%) saw upside on the news alongside a boost to the semiconductors and the tech sector, as well as equity indices. Meanwhile, Communications was the clear laggard amid lacklustre trade in Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.9%) and Meta (META, -1.7%). Macro updates were largely contained to central bank speakers.
SPX +0.44% at 6,694, NDX +0.55% at 24,761, DJI +0.14% at 46,382, RUT +0.59% at 2,463.
US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly
White House said talks are ongoing with Republican and Democratic Congress members on a potential government shutdown, according to Reuters.
US President Trump will meet with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer this week, according to Punchbowl News.
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI; OpenAI will deploy 10 gigawatts of AI data centres with NVIDIA, with the first gigawatt of systems to be deployed in 2026, and the companies said they look forward to finalising details in the coming weeks, according to an announcement.
NVIDIA (NVDA) and OpenAI deal doesn’t change any of OpenAI’s compute plans, including partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) or its efforts to build its own chips, according to Reuters, citing sources.
Disney (DIS) to return Kimmel show to the air on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported.
US President Trump said the FDA will warn physicians about a potential link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use in pregnancy and autism risk; he advised pregnant women to avoid Tylenol and said do not take it. Trump also said MMR vaccines should be taken separately and that there is no reason for newborns to be given the Hepatitis B vaccine, according to Reuters.
FED COMMENTARY
Fed Governor Miran said Fed policy is ‘very restrictive’ and poses a risk to the Fed’s employment mandate. On interest rates, he said the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid-2% area, almost 2ppts below the current level, and that an immigration-policy-driven reduction in population growth also exerts downward pressure on the neutral rate. Click for full comments.
Fed’s Hammack (2025 voter) said the US is in a two-speed economy with lower-income households struggling. On rate cuts, she said last week’s cut emerged from the view that the balance of risks is changing, that the Fed is being challenged on both sides of its dual mandate, and that policymakers should be very cautious in removing policy restriction. She added she has one of the higher estimates of neutral, that policy is only modestly restrictive. On inflation, she said it is likely to continue rising, with pressures returning in both goods and services. On the labour market, she said the headline payrolls number indicates some softness, there are signs of fragility, and while the 4.3% unemployment rate is healthy, the jobs market remains low-hiring and low-firing as businesses are reluctant to hire; she noted openings remain robust but inflation is still high, expects unemployment to tick up, and warned that removing restriction too quickly could overheat the economy, while adding she is not hearing about significant layoffs, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said a modest amount of tariff costs are paid by the consumer, adding that economic uncertainty is starting to lift but firms remain cautious to invest. On business confidence, he said optimism has ticked back up. On the labour market, he said low unemployment, wage gains and stock prices are all supporting consumer spending, expects the current low-hiring, low-firing jobs market to continue though it could break in either direction, and sees workforce growth this year close to flat. On inflation, he said wage pressures are coming down, according to Reuters.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon, on Fed rate cuts, said further reductions will be difficult, via CNBC-TV18.
TRADE/TARIFFS
The White House said US President Trump will sign a TikTok deal later this week, according to Reuters.
India’s Foreign Minister said it was good to meet Secretary Rubio in New York, adding that the conversation covered a range of bilateral and international issues of current concern, and that Rubio agreed on the importance of sustained engagement to progress on priority areas, according to Reuters.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon noted tariffs could be modestly inflationary but uncertain if the impact is temporary, via Times of India interview.
US lawmaker Adam Smith noted the intention to improve communication channels between China and the US.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts, whilst there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
ASX 200 eked gains, once again lifted by gold miners as the yellow metal printed fresh all-time highs, although upside was capped by a deterioration in Flash PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded lower with catalysts sparse, but amid the hangover from the anticlimactic Trump-Xi call last week, whilst Hong Kong markets braced for the Super Typhoon, expected to be the worst since at least 2018.
KOSPI was again supported by the strong performance in its Tech sector after the NVIDIA/OpenAI announcement.
Nifty 50 trimmed its earlier mild gains with the index continuing to be hampered by the US H-1B visa update.
US equity futures resumed trade flat and continued to move sideways amid a lack of pertinent newsflow, with traders on the lookout for commentary from Fed Chair Powell later today, alongside remarks from Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, and US President Trump at the UN General Assembly.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
FX
DXY traded uneventfully within a tight range between 97.198-97.374, with the index taking a breather following yesterday’s losses and amid a lack of pertinent drivers ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech and President Trump’s address at the UN General Assembly.
EUR/USD hovered on either side of the 1.1800 handle with macro newsflow sparse as traders looked ahead to Flash PMIs from Europe; next resistance seen at last Thursday’s peak at 1.1848.
GBP/USD experienced flat trade within a narrow range, with little to note ahead of UK Flash PMIs. BoE’s Chief Economist Pill is slated to speak later today (text to be published), with comments potentially of interest following his recent dissent on the APF decision.
USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.68) and dipped under yesterday’s low (147.66), but the pair remains within a narrow band amid a lack of noteworthy drivers and with Japanese participants away on the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
Antipodeans were eventually modestly softer amid weakness in Chinese markets. AUD/USD was also weighed on by a marked deterioration in Flash PMIs, albeit the data remained in expansion territory. NZD/USD was subdued, whilst Bloomberg sources suggested a new RBNZ Governor could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1066 (Prev. 7.1106)
RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee after hitting record lows, according to Reuters, citing traders
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained in a holding pattern amid a lack of drivers ahead of commentary from Fed Chair Powell, with cash trade overnight also lacking with Japanese players away on a domestic holiday.
Bund futures were similarly uneventful as participants brace for Flash PMIs from Europe, followed by a 2027 Schatz auction.
Australia sold AUD 300mln 4.75% 2054 AGB; b/c 3.35x (prev. 3.00x), average yield 5.0141% (prev. 5.0560%).
COMMODITIES
Crude futures saw subdued trade in APAC hours despite a lack of notable updates. Desks suggest crude prices continue to be weighed on by President Trump’s recent call for Russian oil purchases to cease, suggesting that the war would end “if the price of oil comes down”. Little movement in prices was seen on reports of drones disrupting operations in Oslo, Stockholm, and Copenhagen. Traders look ahead to the UN General Assembly for any notable updates on Russia and the Middle East, with US President Trump also due to give remarks. Eyes are on the E3/Iran meeting with regard to Iranian sanctions due to come into effect at the end of the month.
Spot gold extended on gains to a fresh all-time high, with momentum picking up after a breach of the psychological USD 3,750/oz to the upside. Desks cite the rise to Fed easing bets alongside a hot geopolitical landscape.
Copper futures were eventually subdued with prices capped by the underperformance across China, with 3M LME copper dipping back under the USD 10,000/t mark.
Trump administration officials are hoping to ink new oil and gas deals with other governments this week during Climate Week and the United Nations General Assembly, and White House official Agen pitched US energy sources as a diplomatic tool, Axios reported.
Chile’s development agency Corfo informed the comptroller office of contract changes to enable the Codelco-SQM lithium deal, according to Reuters.
Congo President noted intention to strengthen partnership with US, focusing on mining sector and infrastructure development but rules out auctioning mineral resources to US, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin stabilised around USD 112,500 following pressure across the whole crypto complex yesterday.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese PM contender Takaichi proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. She said policymakers should be mindful of the risk of causing a yield rise when guiding fiscal policy, but noted that when interest rates rise, so would interest from government assets, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. He said Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Hayashi said they must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending and keep sending signals to the market that Japan will maintain fiscal discipline, according to Reuters.
New Zealand is set to appoint its first female RBNZ Governor; announcement to come as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources.
DATA RECAP
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 52.0 (Prev. 55.8)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 51.6 (Prev. 53.0)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 52.1 (Prev. 55.5)
South Korean PPI Growth YY (Aug) 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.5%)
South Korean PPI Growth MM (Aug) -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
NATO-RUSSIA
The White House said US President Trump is aware of Russia’s New START Treaty offer, according to Reuters.
Sweden’s Defence Minister said “Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary”, according to Swedish press.
“Unidentified drones over Stockholm, the capital of Sweden”, according to unconfirmed local reports cited by geopolitical watchers on X.
Oslo Airport spokesperson confirmed airspace has been closed since midnight local time due to drone sightings, with all flights diverted to nearby airports, according to Reuters.
Copenhagen airport reopened following closure due to drone activity, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, according to WSJ’s Norman.
Iran’s Foreign Minister is meeting with IAEA chief Grossi in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, according to Reuters.
Trump to present Arab leaders with US principles for ending Gaza war, and the US seeks agreement from Arab and Muslim nations to deploy troops to Gaza, facilitating Israeli withdrawal and securing transition funding, according to Axios.
OTHERS
The White House said US President Trump will meet with the UN Secretary General and leaders of Ukraine, Argentina and the EU at the UN, and will also hold a multilateral meeting with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said he will discuss F-35 negotiations with US President Trump during the upcoming meeting, via Fox News interview.
US, South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, according to a statement.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Nagel said the current EUR valuation does not worry him, according to Reuters.
UK Chancellor Reeves could raise GBP 6bln of income tax without harming employees by focusing increases on pensioners, landlords and the self-employed, according to the Resolution Foundation, via Bloomberg.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is intensifying efforts to assert control over the Senkaku Islands, the Taiwan Strait, and the South and East China Seas, with the supposed soon-to-be-commissioned Fujian aircraft carrier marking a major expansion of its naval power and heightening the risk of confrontation with the United States and its allies.
On the morning of Sept. 14, two Chinese vessels equipped with cannons entered Japan’s territorial waters near Minamikojima in the disputed Senkaku Islands, in the East China Sea. The Japan Coast Guard reported the ships around 7 a.m. and continued to monitor them while issuing warnings to leave immediately. The Senkaku Islands are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. Tokyo maintains that they are an inherent part of Japanese territory under history and international law, rejecting any sovereignty dispute.
The CCP’s threat to the Senkaku Islands could easily spark a war involving the United States. Under the U.S.–Japan security treaty, first signed in 1951 and revised in 1960, Washington is obligated by Article 5 to defend Japan against armed attacks on any territories under its administration.
Although the United States takes no position on the sovereignty dispute, it recognizes Japan’s current administrative control over the islands. U.S. officials have repeatedly affirmed that Article 5 covers the Senkaku Islands, meaning the United States would be treaty-bound to assist Japan if the Chinese regime used force against them.
Just a few days earlier, China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time while still undergoing sea trials ahead of expected commissioning later this year. Japan’s military also reported spotting the Fujian near the disputed Senkaku Islands on Sept. 11, sailing with two destroyers.
Beijing claimed the carrier was en route to the South China Sea for training and scientific tests, insisting the transit was routine and not aimed at anyone. However, the move carried symbolic weight as the CCP asserts its claims over both the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan.
Around the same time, the U.S. destroyer USS Higgins and the British frigate HMS Richmond transited the Taiwan Strait, prompting sharp warnings from Beijing, which condemned the move as undermining regional stability and deployed naval and air forces to monitor them.
Washington and London countered that the operation was lawful and routine under international law, stressing that the strait lies beyond the territorial waters of any state and that freedom of navigation must be upheld.
Earlier this month, Canadian and Australian warships had also passed through the strait, part of regular transits conducted about once a month by the United States and other allies such as Britain and France.
The United States has long maintained that the Taiwan Strait is international waters, not Chinese territory, and has upheld this position through regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in the Indo-Pacific. According to the previous administration, over the past four years, the Department of Defense has “challenged more than a dozen excessive maritime claims,” while conducting bilateral and multilateral exercises with allies to reinforce cooperation and support a free and open Indo-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea.
Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which China is a party, coastal states are entitled to a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea. Beijing claims this zone around both its mainland and Taiwan, since it does not recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. However, the Taiwan Strait still contains a corridor of international waters and airspace beyond any territorial sea, where all states enjoy rights of navigation, overflight, and other lawful uses.
While China has limited jurisdiction in its contiguous zone and exclusive economic zone, it does not hold sovereignty over them. Even within a territorial sea, UNCLOS allows “innocent passage” for foreign ships, so long as activities do not threaten the peace, order, or security of the coastal state.
Over the past five years, the CCP has intensified military pressure on Taiwan with regular war games and more frequent violations of Taiwan’s sea and air space. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has warned that Beijing is preparing for an invasion.
The European Union and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio have denounced China’s expanding territorial claims in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, including its bid to designate Scarborough Reef as a so-called nature preserve.
It seems that the CCP is intensifying its efforts to assert control over the Senkaku Islands, the Taiwan Strait, the East and South China Seas, and ultimately Taiwan. The recent passage of the Fujian marked its ninth sea trial since May 2024, fueling speculation it will soon be commissioned, much like the Shandong, which entered service shortly after its own strait transit in 2019.
As China’s third carrier, the Fujian joins the Liaoning and Shandong. With three carriers, China could rotate one for maintenance, one for training in the South China Sea, and one patrolling the western Pacific, enabling it to project power east of Taiwan and directly threaten the island nation’s defenses. This could complicate Taiwan’s ability to intercept Chinese carrier groups, expose its forces to long-range strikes, and allow Beijing to enforce a blockade or conduct denial operations across the Pacific between Guam and Taiwan.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
end
CHINA/USA
ROBERT h
Cold reality
When and if you choose to read this give thought to the following; if you accept as a investor that you cannot outperform a competitor you give up the ability to innovate and simply use money as investment in the labor and innovation of others.
This is exactly what China wants people to think. How can I compete?
In the early 80’s I to chose risk my own money to create a software product in the microcomputer age called Ability. It competed successfully with Microsoft and Ashton Tate and Lotus. All of who has industry standing and money I did not. And yes i took a young team of inexperienced talented programmers from Waterloo and we created a product for everyday people. Where you did not need to know DOS. We proved the impossible was doable in 1984 and frankly i still cannot do on Apple what i could back then.
In ‘92 I started an injection molding company called Greenfield Plastics making products for household names like Rubbermaid and Sunbeam etc. In the course of this, I purchased a 350,000 sq.foot building from the Alberta government and created a outsourcing hub delivering products to retailer stores effectively locking up the business by changing the rules of cost for transport. And in a short time became the largest independent private Injection molder in Canada exporting not just to America but to England, Mexico and China as well. What made it work is that I realized that customers outsourced work because it was cheaper than making it themselves. TO that end, I went to Italy to buy the fastest machines I could afford and learnt how to cool a mold in record time allowing me to make products in some cases in half the time of my customers at huge margins below their standard cost. And in the case of Rubbermaid having a plant in Calgary allowed me to save them huge money in transportation costs accounting for 35% of their Canadian profits.
What does that tell me? Think different and ask a lot of questions and be not afraid to challenge not the run of the mill but the best. It is only then that you can achieve something greater than what is in place now. To say I cannot compete is already accepting your fate and makes you an investor and not an innovator.
The reality is a creative destruction of norms is a natural process and it takes guts to innovate using your own money. And naturally no sector of business is unto itself as beyond reach. What is beyond reach for most people is the willingness to try and fail to become better and achieve breakthroughs. Naturally one would be very foolish not to examine what the best in any sector are doing. But the day you say I cannot is the day you stopped being an innovator and became a coupon clipper. When Jobs came back to SAVE Apple it was what he did at NEXT computers coupled with a sized investment from Microsoft that save Apple when all were saying it is a-goner.
Today’s Investors including VC’s who have capital for the most part are coupon clippers and have lost their mojo to invest knowing that investment carries risk of failure and that is the cost of business innovation. Investing in China today and stopping to examine how to win as a competitor is a losing proposition because all you do is shift the balance in China’s favor.
A group of eight VCs from Western firms agreed to share with Bloomberg the details of a July road trip across China during which they visited factories, spoke with startup investors, and interviewed founders of companies.
They knew China had raced ahead in sectors like batteries and “everything around energy,” but seeing how big the gap was firsthand left them wondering how European and North American competitors can even survive, says Talia Rafaeli, a former investment banker at both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc who’s now a partner at Kompas VC.
Planet A Ventures, a Berlin-based VC, has decided that investments in Western startups spanning battery manufacturing and recycling, electrolysers, solar and hardware for wind are no longer viable, says Nick de la Forge, general partner and co-founder of the firm. He says before the trip he’d suspected China was way ahead; but after going there, those sectors are now “strictly off the list.”
Yair Reem, a partner at Extantia Capital, says the trip has already led his firm to halt investments in Western battery cell manufacturers. Instead, they’ll look for ways to collaborate with Chinese firms across supply chains. When it comes to battery manufacturing in the West, China’s dominance means it’s now “game over,” according to Reem.
Ashwin Shashindranath, a former Macquarie Group managing director who’s now a partner at Energy Impact Partners, says what he saw on the trip made it “very clear” that Western investors live “in a bubble” in their misconceptions about China.
China manufactures about 80% of the world’s solar panels, supplies some 60% of the planet’s wind turbines, 70% of its EVs and 75% of batteries, all at a lower financial cost than the West.
What’s more, China’s share of global clean energy patents stands at around 75%, while the country dominates the supply chain for the critical minerals that underpin many green technologies.
Irena Spazzapan, a former Goldman Sachs commodities executive who now runs Systemiq Capital, says China’s advances in renewables are all down to its ultimate goal of energy independence. The country “has prioritized energy security above all else,” she says.
Global clean-tech dominance hasn’t necessarily meant profits for Chinese firms. Beijing has been phasing out subsidies such as the feed-in tariffs that had guaranteed high prices for renewable power. That’s as over-production has driven down prices to near break-even levels.
China’s willingness to let companies fail in droves creates “real social costs,” says Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School. “But it works to create global champions that dominate the market.”
De la Forge at Planet A Ventures says seeing how far China takes corporate Darwinism was a “revelation.” Only “the strongest players survive.”
Many of the companies the VCs visited are now looking to escape China’s price wars by ramping up exports.
“We just saw the most automated, most advanced manufacturing line, and they had 12 of them in parallel, and many more around them,” says Jacob Bro, co-founder and partner at 2150. “And when you see that, you also just realize that catching up to that is futile: it’s not going to happen.”
Europe’s hopes of producing a world-leading battery giant sank with Northvolt AB, which has sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US and also filed for bankruptcy in Sweden.
Today, says Bro, “if you want to build something like a Northvolt in Europe, you should invite these guys over and do it with them.”
end
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
Empty Streets Spark €100-A-Week Housing Experiment In East Germany
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 04:15 AM
As Germany marks 35 years of reunification on October 3, some depopulated eastern towns are offering “trial-living” schemes: several weeks of super-cheap housing to attract new residents, according to Yahoo/AFP.
Participants pay just €100 a week, and in towns like Guben, flats can be rented for only €5–7 per square meter.
One of the newcomers is kindergarten teacher Weslawa Goeller, 50, from Mainz, who is testing life in Guben with her toddler. At first, she said, “Since I arrived, I feel like I never see anyone.” But she’s warming to its pace: “It’s green and quiet,” and with free childcare, “I could easily work here as an educator.” Still, she admits, “Old trees like me are hard to uproot. But I might decide to move here.”
Yahoo/AFP writes that Guben’s population has dropped from 31,000 in 1990 to 16,000 today, despite its slogan, “A town where people stay.” Like much of the east, it never recovered fully from the collapse of state industries after 1989. Researcher Tim Leibert warns the demographic decline could become “a bomb for the German economy,” with the east projected to lose up to 16% of its population in 20 years.
Some, however, embrace the quiet. Anika Franze, 38, left the “Berlin party scene” for Guben and now works on the trial-living initiative. She calls the scheme “a very modern concept, a bit like a 30-day right of return.”
Project head Kerstin Geilich, 61, recalls the economic trauma of the 1990s but says conditions have improved with jobs in factories and healthcare. Still, “It’s hard to make (people) understand that you can find a good job here today.”
Other towns are following suit. Eisenhuettenstadt, built in 1950 as East Germany’s steel hub, has lost half its population since reunification. Mayor Frank Balzer calls it “the tragedy of the 1990s.”
IT consultant Melanie Henninger, visiting from Bremen, is considering a move: “I would like to contribute to society here, for example by training older people in digital technology.” She adds, “I try not to have any preconceptions… I have to give this place a chance.”
END
AND YOU WANT A PALESTIAN STATE?
ITALY THIS MORNING:
Dr. Maalouf on X: “ITALY: Milan right now looks like a literal war zone. A coalition of far-left activists and Muslim migrant gangs is currently rioting and destroying the city because Italy refuses to recognize a Palestinian state. Total chaos. https://t.co/v9HCkHqeor” / X
Milan yesterday.
ITALY: Milan right now looks like a literal war zone.
A coalition of far-left activists and Muslim migrant gangs is currently rioting and destroying the city because Italy refuses to recognize a Palestinian state.
Most Europeans would be unwilling to take a pay cut to work from home, according to a European Central Bank (ECB) survey published on Sept. 25.
The portion of eurozone workers aged 20 to 64, who are not self-employed and at least partially working from home, has doubled from 11.7 percent in 2019 to 22.4 percent in 2024, according to data from Eurostat.
The survey found that 33.6 percent of employees reported working from home at least two days per week since May 2024.
According to figures from the ECB, the majority of workers in the Eurozone, 55.7 percent, still do not work from home.
Hybrid working, or operating between home and workplace, was the most common form of arrangement for the 44.4 percent of people who do at least some remote work.
Of those hybrid workers, 11.9 percent signed in from home one day a week, and 21.9 percent for between two and four days a week.
Some 10.6 percent of respondents worked entirely remotely.
“Overall, a hybrid working pattern appears to be the preferred remote working option, with most hybrid workers (84 percent) expressing satisfaction with their current arrangement,” the ECB said.
“Interestingly, 43 percent of employees who work fully remotely would prefer to spend fewer days working away from the office. This suggests that remote working may be driven more by necessity or employer requirements than by preference.”
The ECB survey also found that 70 percent of employees would not be willing to accept any pay cut to either continue or begin working from home.
Of those who would accept a reduction in remuneration, it found that 13 percent would take a pay cut of between 1 percent and 5 percent, and 8 percent would accept a reduction of between 6 percent and 10 percent.
“The average pay cut that employees would accept to work two or three days per week from home is 2.6 percent,” the ECB said.
“This is significantly lower than other estimates in the empirical literature.”
Other analyses it cited included a survey of German workers in 2024, which found they would be willing to accept a reduction of 7.7 percent of their pay to work fully remotely.
Another survey of workers in the United States tech sector said some would accept a cut of 25 percent in their pay packets for a remote position instead of an in-person role.
The ECB found that employees who work from home more frequently would be willing to accept a higher pay cut to preserve their current arrangement, but that cut was only of 4.6 percent.
The survey also found that younger workers were more likely to value the ability to work from home, as were employees with children or those who had long commutes.
Alongside this, the ECB found that other factors such as income, education level, and gender seemed to have little impact on the value workers placed on flexible working.
END
EUROPE
EU Leaders Want ‘Drone Wall’ Protecting Eastern Flank From Russian Incursions
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 02:45 AM
European Union leaders are mulling a joint “drone wall” to boost Europe’s defenses, according to European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier from Brussels.
He previewed that EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will participate in meeting representatives of seven frontline EU member states, listed as Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania – as cited in Bloomberg. The Ukrainian government is also expected to send representatives to the meeting.
It comes after earlier this month there were several alleged breaches of NATO members’ airspace by Russian drones or jets. Also, NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ countries have grown more and more alarmed.
The September 9th Polish instance was the most serious, given Warsaw accused Russia of intentionally sending a ‘wave’ of drones – up to 19 – which resulted in its military urgently scrambling jets to track them.
Following this, there was a Russian drone which was tracked by Romanian fighter jets, before it went back into Ukrainian airspace.
But the Estonian instance has been the most interesting and controversial, given the wildly contrasting narratives being presented.
The Estonian foreign ministry had described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets “entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes.”
With the publication of a map by the Estonian Ministry of Defense which purports to show the breach and Russian flight path, some pundits have argued the jets were only in the country’s exclusive economic zone for fishing. But others have said that the jets violated airspace within 12 miles from the coastline, making it an incursion into Estonia’s sovereign territory.
Regardless, European officials are denouncing the “brazen” violation, and are pushing for greater EU/NATO anti-air defense initiatives to protect against Russia.
Moscow has rejected the charges, instead saying via the defense ministry and state media:
In a brief statement on Saturday, the Defense Ministry said three MiG-31s were conducting a routine flight from Karelia Region, east of Finland, to an airfield in Kaliningrad Region, a Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania.
The jets flew over the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea, more than 3 kilometers from Estonia’s Vaindloo island, “without violating Estonian airspace,”the MOD said.
“The flight was carried out in strict accordance with international airspace regulations and without crossing the borders of other countries,” the ministry added.
This has not convinced Estonia or its allies, with Prime Minister Kristen Michal saying “NATO’s response to any provocation must be united and strong. We consider it essential to consult with our allies to ensure shared situational awareness and to agree on our next joint steps” – in reference to consultations over Article 4.
END
GERMANY
(KORYBKO)
How Far Will The German Elite Go In Resisting The Winds Of Change?
Banning the AfD, more “statistically conspicuous” deaths of its candidates, and even a repeat of the Romanian scenario can’t be ruled out as the nationalist opposition continues growing in popularity…
A poll from publicly financed German media revealed that the AfD once again ties the ruling CDU in popularity at 26% each, which Euractiv evaluated as proving its staying power. They also assessed that their tripling of support in North Rhine-Westphalia’s latest elections, Germany’s most populous state, to 14.5% “emphasized the party’s increasingly national base.” This is in spite of media smears, namely that it’s backed by the Kremlin and extremist, and the “statistically conspicuous” death of seven candidates.
The AfD’s surging support across Germany can be attributed to the unofficial recession that Germany entered in 2022 after complying with US pressure to sanction Russia in solidarity with Ukraine and from which it’s still struggling to recover. Simply put, cutting off reliable access to low-cost energy raised prices across the board, which reduced the competitiveness of German companies and led to economic malaise. This unfolded in parallel with the government taking on more of a “liberal-totalitarian” form.
A growing number of Germans therefore naturally gravitated towards the only real alternative political force that had emerged in the country by then, which was made all the more attractive by its pragmatic approach to the Ukrainian Conflict. At this point, the West can no longer win (hitherto officially considered the restoration of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders but recently described by Zelensky as Ukraine simply continuing to exist), all that it can do is reach a deal with Russia or risk its client state’s full defeat.
The AfD favors a compromise that paves the way for resuming Germany’s import of Russian gas while the ruling elite want to perpetuate the proxy war as proven by their latest pledge of €9 billion to Ukraine through 2026. The first’s policy would restore the strength of the German economy and consequently its pre-conflict social spending levels whereas the second would perpetuate economic malaise while enriching those who invest in the military-industrial complex and worseningcorruption in Ukraine.
Circling back to Euractiv’s article, they concluded on the note that “Merz doesn’t face national elections until 2029, but the AfD are eyeing a number of regional elections next year, including votes in two eastern states where the far right have been holding clear leads in the polls.” While early elections are possible, just like the ones in February that brought Chancellor Friedrich Merz to power and in which the AfD shocked the establishment by coming second, the elite probably won’t risk them (at least not yet).
They won’t want to take the chance that the AfD wins and there’s still more work to be done in engineering the elections whenever they’re eventually held, whether in 2029 or earlier. This could take the form of banning the AfD on extremist pretexts or more of its candidates might fall victim to more “statistically conspicuous” deaths by then. A repeat of the Romanian scenario whereby politically inconvenient electoral results are annulled on unsubstantiated foreign meddling pretexts is also possible.
One way or another, the ruling elite are expected to continue resisting the winds of change that were unleashed by their own policies and are now sweeping across the country, especially those towards Russia that sabotaged the structural strength of the economy. Whether they succeed in keeping AfD leader Alice Weidel out of the chancellorship remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt that her party’s appeal will continue growing since it’s the only one that truly has Germany’s national interests in mind.
END
BERLIN, GERMANY
Far-Left Extremists Claim Responsibility For Berlin’s Biggest Blackout Since The Cold War
Far left extremists are claiming responsibility for a major attack on a power supply hub providing power to southeast Berlin, which led to a blackout that left 50,000 people without power, the biggest blackout in Berlin since the Cold War.
The damage has been so severe that authorities are reporting it may take until 2026 to fully make repairs, according to Tagesspiegel.
A letter of responsibility was published on Indymedia, a website where many leftist groups publish such letters following attacks.
Berlin’s interior senator, Iris Spranger (SPD), said the letter was authentic.
In fact, the letter has many similarities to another letter published in February following a similar arson attack near the Tesla car factory in Grünheide near Berlin, which also led to a major loss of power in Berlin.
“We assume the group of perpetrators is from the left-wing extremist spectrum,” said the Interior Senator. “So that means: not from abroad, but from within the country.“
German media and authorities are indicating that the perpetrators conducted the attacks with a high degree of professionalism.
The attack was conducted in the Johannisthal district and involved an arson attack on two electricity pylons on Tuesday morning. It resulted in the longest power outage in 25 years, leaving up to 50,000 residents without power, with many thousands without power for over 60 hours.
The power outage has proven extremely difficult to repair.
Spranger implied that the attacks, which cut power to thousands of homes, led to deaths; however, it is unclear what she is referring to. She said the perpetrators accepted the deaths of people as “collateral damage”
“No one should accept the death of people. And we all have to face it together,” she said.
Maj. Shahar Netanel Bozaglo (Israel Defense Forces)
The Israel Defense Forces announced early Tuesday that an IDF officer had been killed in fighting in Gaza City the previous day.
The slain soldier was named as Maj. Shahar Netanel Bozaglo, 27, a company commander in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 77th Battalion, from Migdal Haemek.
According to an initial IDF probe, during the ongoing offensive in Gaza City on Monday, a Hamas operative fired an RPG at one of the 77th Battalion’s tanks, injuring the officer.
Bozaglo was taken to a hospital, where his condition worsened until he succumbed to his injuries.
He is the first soldier to be killed in the IDF’s new offensive against Hamas in Gaza City, launched last week.
Israel has called on Gaza City’s roughly 1 million Palestinian residents to flee ahead of the offensive there. According to fresh IDF estimates Tuesday, some 640,000 Palestinians have so far evacuated to the Strip’s south.
The rate of Palestinians leaving the area has increased in recent days, as the IDF advances deeper into Gaza City.
The Gaza City offensive has been criticized by Israeli hostage families and, according to widespread media reports, by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir himself, who is said to have told ministers it would needlessly endanger troops and the remaining 48 captives.
Aid agencies have warned that the offensive would deepen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza City, where the UN declared a famine last month in a report rejected by Israel.
IDF forces operate in the Gaza Strip, September 22, 2025. (IDF)
On Monday morning, an officer was seriously wounded when gunmen opened fire on troops in the city. Troops killed Hamas gunmen in the firefight, the military said. Medical sources in the Hamas-run Strip reported at least 29 people were killed by Israeli fire, 25 of them in Gaza City.
Air defenses also shot down a rocket launched from Gaza City at the Israeli border community of Nahal Oz on Monday afternoon. The attack did not cause damage or injuries and was preceded by sirens activated in open areas, the Israel Defense Forces said.
It was the second rocket launch in as many days from Gaza City, which the IDF seeks to take over in the ground offensive launched last week.
Meanwhile, the IDF said it had struck and destroyed the Gaza City building from which Hamas fired two rockets at Israel’s southern port city of Ashdod on Sunday.
The IDF strike was carried out by the 215th Artillery Regiment, which is operating in Gaza City under the 162nd Division, the military said. Other forces of the division demolished Hamas infrastructure and killed 15 gunmen who were identified near the troops, according to the military.
Displaced Palestinians flee the northern Gaza Strip, by foot and in vehicles, carrying their belongings along the coastal road, near Wadi Gaza, September 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Also in Gaza City, the 98th Division directed an Israeli Air Force drone strike on a Hamas weapons manufacturing site, and another drone strike that killed a cell of operatives who had been identified near the troops, the IDF said.
In the Strip’s south, a drone strike was also carried out on a building where soldiers from the IDF’s Gaza Division had spotted several Hamas operatives, the military said.
Calls to reopen medical corridor to West Bank
Dozens of Western nations called on Monday for the reopening of the medical corridor between Gaza and the West Bank, offering to provide financial aid and medical staff or equipment to treat Gaza’s patients in the West Bank.
“We strongly appeal to Israel to restore the medical corridor to the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, so medical evacuations from Gaza can be resumed and patients can get the treatment that they so urgently need on Palestinian territory,” the countries said in a joint statement released by Canada.
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the European Union and Poland were among the two dozen signatories of the statement. The United States was not listed as a signatory.
“We furthermore urge Israel to lift restrictions on deliveries of medicine and medical equipment to Gaza,” the statement said.
There was no immediate reaction from Israel. In the past, Israel has rebuffed calls to allow Gazans to receive medical care in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, most recently during a meeting this month between Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and his Danish counterpart, when Saar cited “security concerns.”
Israel has allowed some Gazans to be evacuated to Arab and European countries for treatment. Palestinians say this is no substitute for wider access to hospitals in other Palestinian territories.
Aid agencies said in late August that only a trickle of the aid that was needed, including medicine, had been reaching people in Gaza since Israel lifted a blockade on aid in May. The World Health Organization said in May that Gaza’s health system was at a breaking point. Israel controls all access to Gaza and says it allows enough food aid and supplies into the enclave.
end
HAMAS
Hamas executes 3 ‘collaborators’ in Strip as it faces rising challenges from militias
Palestinian analyst says action shows growing worry in terror organization of threat posed by rival groups
Palestinians accused of collaberation with Israel are seen blindfolded moments before their execution by Hamas gunmen in a Gaza street (Social media)
CAIRO — Hamas-led authorities in Gaza have executed three men accused of collaborating with Israel, a Palestinian official said, as the group seeks to crush rising challenges from militias it says are working against it with Israeli support.
Two years into the Gaza war and with Hamas under relentless Israeli military pressure, small bands of armed Palestinians opposed to the group have surfaced in several parts of Gaza where they have been operating against it, according to residents and sources close to Hamas and to the groups.
In a video circulated on social media showing the executions, a masked man is seen issuing a warning to “all collaborators” before the three men, kneeling and blindfolded, are kicked onto their fronts and shot in front of a crowd.
Reuters confirmed the location as Gaza City by the buildings, a gas station, road layout and signs seen in the video, which matched file and satellite imagery of the area.
The Palestinian security official from the Hamas-run Gaza government said the executions were carried out on Sunday by the “Joint Operations Room of the Palestinian resistance.”
The videos showed “revolutionary rulings” being implemented against people for security collaboration with Israel, it said.
The executions aimed to send “a clear message and serve as a deterrent to anyone tempted to collaborate with the occupation.”
Note: The video below may be disturbing to some viewers, but does not show the executions themselves
The moments before Hamas gunmen execute alleged collaborators with Israel in Gaza City, September 2025 (Social media)
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
During the war, Hamas said it has publicly punished people for crimes, including looting and collaboration with Israel. This video marked one of the most graphic demonstrations of this.
The Israeli military launched a ground offensive in Gaza City last week, pressing its campaign to defeat the group that sparked the war when it launched the October 2023 attack on Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly said in June that Israel was arming clans that oppose Hamas, without saying which.
The most prominent anti-Hamas rebel is Yasser Abu Shabab, based in Rafah in southern Gaza, an area controlled by Israel. He has denied receiving Israeli support or having contacts with the Israeli army.
The Palestinian security official said some of the men executed on Sunday had ties to Abu Shabab.
Abu Shabab’s organization did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent via its Facebook page.
Palestinian analysts say Hamas, though weakened, could swiftly suppress rival groups if a ceasefire were reached, but while the war continues, it struggles to do so — especially as those groups move freely in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza.
Israel has cited exactly such concerns in its continuation of the war against the terror group, saying it can never again be allowed to rule the enclave.
Abu Shabab’s armed group recently advertised on social media for recruits with police and security experience, promising monthly salaries from NIS 3,000 to NIS 5,000 ($890 to $1,500).
Other groups opposed to Hamas have emerged in Beit Lahiya and Shejaiya in northern Gaza, and in eastern Khan Younis in the south, sources close to Hamas and residents say.
Palestinian analyst Akram Attallah said the executions indicate that Hamas is deeply worried, especially as these groups now operate beyond their usual areas and their attacks show more capability and a rising threat to the movement.
end
WEST BANK
HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
UN
UN Faces Big Budget Cuts And Job Losses After US Funding Dries Up
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 05:45 AM
The UN has announced it will need to cut $500m from their 2026 budget and will lay off 20% of its staff as it struggles to cope with a massive reduction in funding by the Trump administration. Trump has eliminated at least $1 billion in total funding from the UN.
The plan is likely to involve an initial minimum 3,000 job cuts out of a 35,000-strong main workforce, with eventual job losses at around 7,000. The overall UN core or regular budget would be cut from $3.7bn to about $3.2bn next year. It means reductions of 15.1% in resources and 18.8% in posts in the regular budget compared with the 2025 budget.
Despite the funding losses, UN Secretary General António Guterres continues to press ahead with his new “pact for the future” focusing on artificial intelligence and policies for sustainable development. The UN is now looking for alternative funding for their operations, though, it is unlikely they will be able to fill the void left by US cuts. Most countries have no interest in paying more; the reliance has been entirely on Americans for generations.
Critics of the Trump Administration argue that distancing the US from the UN will lead to disaster. They claim that in the aftermath of World War I, the failure of the United States to join the League of Nations (supported by elitist President Woodrow Wilson) was a contributing factor to the outbreak of World War II.
In reality, the League of Nations and the UN are precursors to global centralization. Widespread war has always been the excuse used to push individual nations into greater compliance with globalist ideologies. The end goal is ultimately to erase nation states and citizen governance altogether. Just as the European Union is run by a gaggle of faceless and unaccountable bureaucrats, a “global union” would be operated in the same fashion.
War is an acceptable risk, because separate nations and cultures help to prevent homogenized global tyranny.
Global organizations have only brought the US public misery in recent years through universal pandemic mandates and multiculturalist agendas that lead to mass immigration from the third world. The UN has been the spearhead for “climate change” regulations around the world, from carbon emissions taxation to population control. Man-made climate change claims have been largely debunked in recent years and the public is waking up to the reality that carbon emissions have little or nothing to do with changing temperatures.
Faith in the UN’s purpose is dying, and their humanitarian efforts look more and more like a cover for a group that wants power and control more than it want’s what’s best for the public. It’s difficult to defend the idea of taxpayer dollars continuing to pay for their operations.
As Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, argues: “The postwar global order is not just obsolete, it is now a weapon being used against us.”
The US government has made no secret of its intention to considerably reduce America’s engagement with international institutions. The White House has already announced withdrawal from the World Health Organization and the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). It has also declared it will no longer fund the UN Relief and Works Agency or the UN Human Rights Council.
A 180-day review of participation in international organizations, originally due in early August, is to suggest more organizations to leave. The funding cuts expose a startling level of dependency within global organizations and foreign government. How much of the world feeds on American taxpayers? Too much.
GLOBAL ISSUES
TYLENOL;
ROBERT h:
Gunther Eagleman™ on X: “HOLY CRAP! Secretary Kennedy just revealed that Tylenol use actually contributes to ADHD and liver toxicity! How long have they known the truth? People have to be held accountable! https://t.co/yHP9JOpcOM” / X
IVERMECTIN and CANCER, it has at least 15 anti-cancer mechanisms of action. Can Ivermectin Treat COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Induced Turbo Cancers? – 9 Ivermectin papers reviewed
ROBERT h
While an older writing, it is worth noting. In all likelihood everyone who had the shots should be taking this along with other things to rid the body of lasting effects.
It is very clear why big pharma did not and does want this. As no doubt the money being made from the effects of these shots is tremendous. And we should not wonder why people have lost faith in the medical community.”
I’m taking—and offering you—a much-needed respite from fixation on the bitter propaganda hoo-ha over Charlie Kirk (about which I’ll be posting soon), in hopes that it will lighten up your day a little bit, as it has mine. (I just found the audiotape in my archives.)
For several years in the late Eighties and early Nineties, I had a weekly radio spot on WJHU, Baltimore’s then NPR affiliate, owned by my employer at the time, Johns Hopkins University. I came on every Friday to join Lisa Simeone, whose afternoon show I would end by offering some timely commentary, in a 20-minute conversation with the host. (At times of national crisis, I also would do evening call-in shows, which Lisa moderated. We did it throughout Operation Desert Storm, during the Hill-Thomas hearings, and at other such fraught moments.)
On April Fool’s Day in 1992 or thereabouts, Lisa and I decided to observe the day by doing the bit that’s posted here. The station was flooded with phone calls, by people who thought those two characters were real; and the powers at JHU freaked out, because they thought it made the university look bad. (Lisa announced that those two characters were in town for a confab at JHU.) That unhappiness on high immediately moved the station manager to lecture Lisa sternly (or hysterically) about the impropriety of what we’d done.
In any case, I got some good laughs hearing it again (and also found it rather prescient), and am hoping you will, too.
This one is for paid subscribers only—as I noted I would do with any audio or video that I might post from time to time, just as I’ve been doing with my essays. (I’m economically dependent on my writings here, but will continue making all our compilations free to read.) I announced this policy in June of 2024:
autism-Tylenol press conference by White House and HHS today was bullshit and it was, shame on Hulscher’s stack & all who are washing today; thank you John! This was garbage drivel by RFK Jr. & Makary
This Tylenol-autism in womb link is pure hog-wash! No main or even major culprit!
Leake reported and showed the slight of hand:
‘President and HHS Secretary mention the potential role of large vaccine bundles administered to infants, medical advisors only speak about Tylenol.’
We are being gaslit! And RFK Jr. is being de-balled and chained down. They silenced him on mRNA vaccine moment he endorsed Trump and now have him IMO strengthening the maintenance of vaccine despite all he knows of the harms. It is staggering!
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But I love this stack by Leake, brave, big stones Leake.
Leake gets more direct here and I love him and it for this:
‘While the President and HHS Secretary also spoke about the suspect of large vaccine bundles administered to infants, their medical advisors (Jay Bhattacharya, Marty Makary, Mehmet Oz, and Dorothy Fink) focused their remarks exclusively on Tylenol, and didn’t mention vaccines.’
Read Leake here too for this is a profound statement as he, Leake moves to protect our children:
‘At the McCullough Foundation, we are currently performing an exhaustive investigation of autism. We have carefully examined Tylenol, and we have found little evidence to warrant regarding it as a prime suspect. Interest in the purported Tylenol-Autism link has recently been piqued within the same institutions that have long vehemently denied that autism is linked to childhood vaccination.
Thus, the totality of circumstances suggests that Tylenol is more of a red-herring than a true suspect.’
This statement by Leake is profound:
‘Thus, the totality of circumstances suggests that Tylenol is more of a red-herring than a true suspect.’
It is about money money money $$$.
Leake is banging the target when he reports this (he is over target and lays blame at the feet of vaccine):
‘Since it became a widely used, over-the-counter drug in 1960, Tylenol has been the only recommended medicine for relieving pain and reducing fever in pregnant women and infants. My entire Generation X (born between 1965-1980) was exposed to Tylenol in utero, and our mothers often gave it to us to lower our fevers from frequent earaches. And yet, in my birth cohort (1970), autism was virtually unknown.
The trend of dramatically increasing autism began in the late eighties, following the passage of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986. This Act granted liability protection to vaccine manufacturers, which was followed by a rapid proliferation of the number of shots on the childhood schedule.’
The vaccine lobby just scored a huge win! Getting RFK Jr., Makary, Bhattacharya and even POTUS Trump to talk that garbage on that podium today about autism and Tylenol. Again these people are damaging Trump’s reputation and I argue RFK Jr.’s job is to block for Trump as to the deadly Malone Bancel Weissman Sahin Albert Bourla Moderna Moncef Kariko Tureci Perna et al. mRNA vaccine and Makary and Bhattacharya and Mr. chip insert Dr. Oz, the television doctor, all are to block for RFK Jr.
The game is ‘who could block the most’. Or I should say, who could bullshit the most and talk in circles the most and make you think they are really trying to deal with the mRNA vaccine that killed. Knowing their job is to expand it and mainstream it and replace all vaccine with mRNA vaccine. I guess Susie Wiles is doing a great job when you come to think of it.
This autism-Tylenol link in utero pressor is and was bullshit, total, MISDIRECTION, a fraud fake to deceive you the public and take your attention off the devastating effect of vaccine and autism (and Malone Bourla Pfizer mRNA vaccine and the deaths, this is about whitewashing and sanitizing criminals and never ever removing mRNA vaccine as you ‘thought’ they would (but no, all that was posturing to get their hands on your tax-money salary, they cashing in too, shit, they only human too) so they got to throw this bullshit con at you about Tylenol) and all the childhood and even adult diseases that plagued us. It is the vaccine, stupid, it is the vaccine. NOT Tylenol. Moreover, Tylenol is given to manage the fever after the vaccines for then the child or even adult is at risk of seizures etc. Did you idiots think that it is the vaccine? That the estimates of effect can be at high risk of bias due to the confounding (distorting) effect of the vaccines? Morons! I cannot believe people like Bhattacharya and Makary would be part of this junk charade on that podium today. Junk science, not even CDC MMWR type pseudoscience.
Shame on them! Again, with their SPIKEVAX. That they have not pulled and still giving to 6 month old infants. Did you notice they have not withdrawn the SPIKEVAX.
The study they cited today (by Baccarelli et al.) of Tylenol-autism link is such garbage. Shame on them! They all know it is methodologically flawed and weak. Confounded studies. High risk of biased outcomes. Does a disservice to the millions of parents and children, person wrestling with autism and spectrum and other neurological illnesses prior tied to vaccine, infant vaccines, now even the mRNA vaccines.
I am a global expert in evidence-based medicine and epidemiology and will challenge RFK Jr. and Makary to debate me with that crap bogus science they referred to today, it is shameful and disgusting all at once. These people are doing all they could now to deny that vaccines in children cause these range of health issues, playing with the language and the nation, throwing all sorts of crap into the debate and now it is Tylenol. Same RFK Jr. who cut his teeth and got fame off vaccine and these illnesses now trying to tell you it is not the vaccine, and they are all using lawyerly language skirting the issue with legalese phrases etc. It is such a shame we are being conned again by people we trusted. Throw in a vaccine word here and there to throw you off to think ‘hey, they are looking at vaccine too’…no! they are trying to stop you from ever thinking of the vaccine-disease link.
And you make POTUS Trump look bad, what you clowns did today, for he is talking junk garbage on the podium again as they had him in COVID. His moronic Task Force clown car circus had Trump talking just falsehoods on podium during COVID.
So, I say, show us the evidence. Show us. About Tylenol-autism in the womb for what you showed today is NOT evidence of any link.
You chose a scapegoat today and it was Tylenol. Like how Tamiflu was a drug in search of a disease, and you gave it H1N1 in 2009 and like how Remdesivir was a failed Ebola drug in search of a disease, and you gave it COVID etc.
Disgusting for it is a lie!
Debate me. Show me and us the evidence you used to stand on that podium today and have poor POTUS Trump stand there making a fool of himself. You are trying to sanitize vaccine so that you do not need to put Malone and Bourla and their/his mRNA technology with Bourla and Bancel and Pfizer etc. in a jail. You know the duplicity you are doing. And damaging the public. I am not fighting FOR Tylenol, I am just saying you are lying and deceiving the nation as to ta link between Tylenoland autism. Nothing you presented today can allow you to state that. Of course, yes, blah blah blah para ‘more research is needed to clarify the link’…that’s typical bullshit talk at the end of any study. There is NO, zero proper strong science linking autism to Tylenol and you RFK Jr., you know it. Yes, we know ‘further research is needed’ blah blah blah…junk. It is needed on everything. Nothing new here. Nothing groundbreaking here.
But that review you all cited today of a link
is NOT a causal link and most if not all the included studies are of poor research methods design, all highly confounded and did not account for the role of vaccine in the findings. So you RFK Jr. and Makary just made POTUS Trump look like an idiot for you presented as YOUR backing research, very poor methodologically flawed research in a review that itself was poorly conducted.
Do you want me to take it apart line by line for you? The methods of that review?
The same way I stood up and out against the OWS lockdowns and Malone Bourla Pfizer et al. mRNA vaccine, I stand again today. That they could make such dramatic mistakes with the deadly lockdowns and mRNA vaccine and now come on podium informed by Makary the clown I now call him, a clown, to stand there straight faced with this Tylenol in the womb-autism link. I looked at the research, it is sub-optimal, weak, confounded, biased, cannot stand to scientific scrutiny, not causal, bogus sub-optimal research and very weak, and the body of evidence shows actual links between vaccine and autism, and NOT Tylenol.
BREAKING: Secret Service Arrests Man Who Endangered Trump by Pointing Laser at Marine OneThe U.S. Secret Service has arrested a man in the nation’s capitol for allegedly pointing a laser at Marine One while President Donald Trump was on board, an incident the agency said could have resulted in a midair collision. In an affidavit on Sept. 22 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, a Secret Service agent said …READ THE FULL REPORT
BREAKING: Supreme Court Permits Trump to Fire FTC MemberThe Supreme Court on Sept. 22 temporarily upheld President Donald Trump’s authority to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) member Rebecca Slaughter. The decision came in an unsigned order. Justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented. Slaughter, formerly chief counsel to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), was first appointed by Trump in 2018 to a seat reserved for Democrats …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Reveals Charlie Kirk’s Last Message to Him Before His AssassinationPresident Donald Trump told mourners that one of Charlie Kirk’s final requests was to “save Chicago.”Trump said Kirk, an Illinois native, asked him personally to focus on the city’s crime crisis.“Save Chicago”“Please sir, save Chicago,” Trump quoted Kirk as saying in their last conversation.Trump vowed his administration would “do that” and “save Chicago.”He reiterated recent pledges to deploy National Guard …READ THE FULL REPORT
President Donald Trump has shredded radical Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) amid revelations about a massive $8.4 million fraud scheme in her state of Minnesota.
Eight individuals have been charged in a fraud scheme in Minnesota that allegedly resulted in over $8.4 million in stolen billings.
The case spotlights a growing issue of corruption in Minnesota, often tied to the massive Somali immigrant community.
The eight individuals have been identified as Moktar Hass Aden, Mustafa Dayib Ali, Khalid Ahmed Dayib, Abdifitah Mohamud Mohamed, Christopher Adesoji Falade, Emmanuel Oluwademilade Falade, Asad Ahmed Adow, and Anwar Ahmed Adow.
They are all accused of orchestrating a massive wire fraud scheme targeting the state’s Housing Stabilization Services program.
This program is a Medicaid-funded initiative designed to help poor Americans get stable housing. This massive fraud scheme caught Trump’s attention.
The president wasted no time in calling out Ilhan Omar, an avowed foe of Trump’s. Omar has been a prominent figure in national politics, but her home state appears to be a total mess. Following the news of the charges, Trump took to Truth Social, writing: “Does Ilhan Omar know these people?
“Are they from her wonderfully managed Home Country of Somalia?” Continuing, Trump explained: READ MORE >>>
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
Goal Is Regime Change In Venezuela, US Officials Say
US officials have told The New York Times that the real goal of the US military buildup in the Caribbean, and the bombing of boats in the region, is regime change in Venezuela.
The policy is being largely driven by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has long wanted to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power. Back in 2019, when the first Trump administration attempted to back a coup against Maduro, Rubio posted a photo on Twitter of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in the moment he was being brutally murdered in an apparent threat to the Venezuelan leader.
The Trump administration claims that Maduro is the leader of a drug cartel, but has not produced any evidence for the charge.
Maduro and other Venezuelan officials have forcefully rejected the accusation and have pointed to data that shows the majority of the cocaine that is produced in Colombia doesn’t go through Venezuela.
President Trump has also framed the military campaign in the region as a response to overdose deaths in the US due to fentanyl, but fentanyl isn’t produced in Venezuela, and it does not go through the country on its way to the US.
The Times report, which was published over the weekend, reads: “Several current and former military officials, diplomats, and intelligence officers say that while fighting drugs is the pretext for the recent US attacks, the real goal is to drive Mr. Maduro from power, one way or another.”
The US began bombing boats allegedly running drugs in the Caribbean on September 2. According to numbers released by President Trump, at least 17 people have been extrajudicially executed by the US military since the campaign began.
US officials have said the Trump administration is considering direct strikes on Venezuelan territory, which could lead to a full-blown war with the country.
One US official speaking to Axios last month suggested that the US military buildup in the region could lead to a “Noriega part 2,” referring to the 1989 US invasion of Panama that led to the ouster of Manuel Noriega. Other US officials hope that the pressure and $50 million bounty on Maduro leads to his assassination.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1809 UP 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.53 DOWN 0.142 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3508 DOWN .0005 OR 5 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3827 UP 0.0027 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 27 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 6.74 PTS OR 0.18%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 185.02 PTS OR 0.70%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.39%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 185.02 PTS OR 0.70%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.74 PTS OR 0.18%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .39 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3785.00
silver:$44.18
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.89 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.149% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.659% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 40/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.174 down 1/2 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.292 DOWN 0 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.572 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7435UP 1/2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1799 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.76 UP 0.035 OR YEN IS DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6750 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.4980 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP .00002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3827
Oil & Gold Pop, Stocks Drop As Powell Calls Market “Fairly Highly Valued”
Stocks pause as traders digest Fedspeak – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 04:13 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar down
REAR VIEW: Fed Chair Powell reiterates post-FOMC remarks; Fed’s Bowman sees two more 25bps cuts by year end; Trump dials up the rhetoric against Russia, says Ukraine with the support of the EU can reclaim lost ground; Mediocre US 2yr note auction; French and UK PMIs disappoint, Germany beats; Riksbank unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps; Russia reportedly considering an extension to the gasoline export ban.
COMING UP: Data: Japanese PMI (Sep), Australian CPI (Aug), German Ifo Survey (Sep). Events: CNB Policy Announcement. Speakers: BoE’s Greene; Fed’s Daly. Supply: Australia, Italy, UK, Germany, US. Earnings: MediaForEurope.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices closed lower, putting the recent rally on standby for now. The sector breakdown saw Energy outperform amid a rebound in crude prices; meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary and Technology lagged. NVIDIA (NVDA, -2.8%) pared some of Monday’s upside on the OpenAI deal, which was the biggest weight contributing to SPX’s 0.6% and NDX’s 0.7% decline, followed by Amazon (AMZN, -3%). US data was contained to the S&P Global Flash PMI, which largely met expectations, resulting in a muted reaction across assets. PMIs out of Europe, however, diverged. France and the UK missed while Germany beat in Services. EUR was initially weighed down by the French reading before later recovering after Germany’s reading. USD and T-Notes saw a fleeting hawkish reaction towards Fed Chair Powell’s text release on the economic outlook. The Chair mostly reiterated his recent remarks, but highlighted that most members’ base case on tariffs’ inflation impact is that it’ll be a one-time pass-through, finished by the end of next year. Other Fed speakers included the Vice Chair of Supervision, Bowman, who sees two more 25bps rate cuts, putting her in line with the FFR Fed median for 2025. The US sold USD 69bln of 2yr notes, met with mediocre demand relative to the past and six-auction average; 2yr was muted in response. In commodities, crude prices benefited from Interfax reports that Russia is considering extending its gasoline export ban. Meanwhile, gold extended into a three-day rally, supported by BBG reports that China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market.
US
S&P GLOBAL: S&P Global’s US Flash Manufacturing PMI for September slipped to 52.0 from 53.0, in line with expectations, while the services gauge eased to 53.9 (exp. 54.0) from 54.5, leaving the composite PMI down 1 point to 53.6. S&P said the data points to 2.2% annualised GDP growth in Q3 (note: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow tracker is currently modelling growth of 3.3% in Q3), though growth slowed from July and hiring weakened in September. S&P said that the softening demand was limiting pricing power, and inventories suggest downside risks to future production, yet consumer inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the near term. Pantheon Macroeconomics still looks for GDP growth of “2% in Q3, followed by just ½% in Q4”.
FED
CHAIR POWELL: Powell’s remarks and tone were generally very similar to his post-FOMC meeting remarks made last week, following the Fed’s 25bps rate reduction, conveying that the Fed cut rates due to downside risks to employment. Markets saw a fleeting hawkish reaction in the wake of his initial remarks, but quickly pared back. Ahead of the Fed’s October 29th meeting, Powell said the Fed policy decision will depend on how the labour market is faring, growth, and inflation data. Powell said that policy must balance both employment and inflation goals, and he emphasised a readiness to adjust if current measures prove misaligned, while preparing for a range of possible economic outcomes. Ahead of PCE inflation data this week, Powell said that inflation has risen, with total PCE prices seen up 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% Y/Y in July, and 2.3% in August 2024); Core PCE prices are expected to have increased 2.9% Y/Y (matching the July reading), driven by goods price rises, mainly reflecting tariffs. The Fed chair noted that services disinflation continues, and most long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the 2% target, suggesting tariff-driven effects may be short-lived (Powell sees these as being a one-time pass-through, finished by the end of next year). On financial assets, Powell described equity prices as fairly highly valued, and the Fed is not targeting prices for financial assets.
BOWMAN: The Fed’s Vice Chair of Supervision backed a 25bps reduction at last week’s meeting, arguing that it is important for the Fed to now proactively support the labour market. Overall, she showed more concern towards the labour market than inflation, expressing worries that the Fed is behind the curve amid labour market weakness. Bowman described last week’s rate cut as the first step towards a more neutral rate, if the economy evolves as expected. On inflation, she said the tariff impact will fade; inflation is otherwise near target. Bowman also expressed concerns that weakness in housing could lead to a decline in values. Ahead, she said, policy could need to adjust further if risks materialise, and businesses could begin laying off people if demand conditions do not improve. Bowman backed her previous stance looking for three 25bps Fed rate cuts in 2025 (one of which we got last week), putting her line with the Fed’s median view.
GOOSLBEE: The 2025 voter said the US remains in a “low hiring, low layoffs” phase and the labour market continued to cool at a moderate pace, but job stats show stability. Goolsbee called the current policy ‘mildly restrictive’ and said that current rates exceed neutral by between 100-125bps (note: the Fed pencilled in a neutral rate of 3.0% in its projections last week). When asked about the prospects for a potentially larger 50bps rate reduction, the Chicago Fed President said the Committee must be careful about getting aggressive. Ahead, he said that interest rates may stabilise at 3% once inflation returns to 2%, and that rates could fall significantly once stagflation concerns subside.
BOSTIC: The 2027 voter said the Fed’s new policy framework remains valid and signalled openness to an inflation target range, suggesting a potential target range of 1.75-2.25%. He reaffirmed the FFR as the Fed’s main policy tool, highlighted persistent inflation risks and limited pricing power for firms, while warning that elevated inflation could cause severe repercussions. Bostic noted labour market uncertainty with firms pausing hiring or firing
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 5+ TICKS HIGHER AT 112-28
T-notes flatten following Powell reiteration. At settlement, 2-year -0.9bps at 3.592%, 3-year -1.4bps at 3.567%, 5-year -1.9bps at 3.677%, 7-year -2.4bps at 3.868%, 10-year -2.7bps at 4.118%, 20-year -2.5bps at 4.702%, 30-year -2.5bps at 4.736%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -0.4bps at 3.234%, 3-year BEI +1.0bps at 2.718%, 5-year BEI +0.6bps at 2.453%, 10-year BEI 0.0bps at 2.353%, 30-year BEI +0.0bps at 2.260%.
THE DAY: Heading into remarks by Fed Chair Powell, Treasury yields were largely meandering around neutral. S&P Global reported the US flash manufacturing PMI for September slipped to 52.0 from 53.0, in line with expectations, while the services gauge eased to 53.9 (exp. 54.0) from 54.5, leaving the composite PMI down 1 point to 53.6. S&P said the data points to 2.2% annualised GDP growth in Q3 (note: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow tracker is currently modelling growth of 3.3% in Q3), though growth slowed from July and hiring weakened in September. S&P said that the softening demand was limiting pricing power, and inventories suggest downside risks to future production, yet consumer inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the near term. Other Fed speakers didn’t really shake markets; Governor Bowman reiterated that she sees a total of three 25bps rate cuts this year. The US sold USD 69bln of 2yr notes, which resulted in a stop through of 0.1bps, with cover slightly beneath recent averages (lowest since October 2024), and at the lowest high yield since September 2024. Indirects took a higher amount than the prior, but still below recent averages, leaving direct bidders with a take-down above recent averages, while dealer participation was broadly in line with recent averages. Overall, demand was seen as average, though it caused no fanfare in markets, which at the time were fixed on remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Powell’s remarks didn’t add much by way of new information, with the Fed chair reiterating that the economy faces a challenging situation, near-term inflation risks were tilted to the upside, while employment risks were tilted to the downside. He described current rates as still ‘moderately restrictive’, defended last week’s rate cut amid slowing job growth, and noted tariffs may cause a one-time price increase spread over several quarters, potentially raising inflation temporarily. Albeit, he sees the pass-through completed by the end of the next year. Ahead of this week’s PCE inflation data on Friday, Powell said that inflation has risen, with total PCE prices seen up 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% Y/Y in July, and 2.3% in August 2024); Core PCE prices are expected to have increased 2.9% Y/Y (matching the July reading), driven by goods price rises, mainly reflecting tariffs. The Fed chair noted that services disinflation continues, and most long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the 2% target, suggesting tariff-driven effects may be short-lived (Powell sees these as being a one-time passthrough, finished by the end of next year).
SUPPLY
NOTES
US sold USD 69bln of 2yr notes.
Overall, the 2-year auction was ok, with the 0.1bps stop through welcomed, but it does signal a cooling relative to the prior stop through of 1.5bps and the six-auction average of 0.5bps. B/C fell to 2.51x from 2.69x, beneath its average of 2.1x. The demand breakdown saw dealers take more, 11.49% up from 9.7% and now above the 11.3% average, thanks to direct demand dropping to 30.77% from 33.2% (avg. 27.3%). Indirect demand was a tough higher at 57.75%, but still below the 61.4% avg.
Bills
US sold USD 85bln 6-week bills at 4.01% (prev. 4.04%), covered 2.51x (prev. 2.82x).
US to sell USD 85bln 8-week bills and USD 100bln 4-week bills on September 25th; to sell USD 65bln 17-week bills on September 24th; all to settle on September 30th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 23bps (prev. 22bps), Dec 44bps (prev. 42bps), January 55bps (prev. 54bps).
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 14bln (prev. 14bln) across 16 counterparties (prev. 15)
EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.08%), volumes at USD 93bln (prev. 95bln) on September 22nd.
SOFR at 4.14% (prev. 4.14%), volumes at USD 2.906tln (prev. 2.881tln) on September 22nd.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 1.13 HIGHER AT USD 63.41/BBL; BRENT (X5) SETTLED USD 1.06 HIGHER AT USD 67.63/BBL
Crude prices gained following reports that Russia is considering extending its gasoline export ban. Initially, prices were lower by around USD 0.45/bbl before paring and moving into the green in the European morning. Behind the reversal, no clear driver was present. Thereafter, the gains extended on IFX reports that Russia is reportedly considering an extension to the gasoline export ban, putting WTI and Brent at new session highs. WTI and Brent hit session highs of USD 63.89/bbl and 68.09/bbl, respectively, before trimming some of the gains. Headlines that followed largely involved geopolitics. Iran’s Supreme Leader said negotiations with the US are a dead end, seemingly arising from Iran’s iron-clad position that it should be allowed to conduct uranium enrichment. Talks between the E3/EU/Iran Foreign Ministers have thus far yielded no positive outcome; talks are to continue; however, WSJ’s Norman writes that sources say there was nothing to suggest the meeting today made the snap back less likely to occur. Staying with geopolitics, US President Trump said NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter the NATO airspace and thinks the Hungarian PM will stop buying Russian oil. Ukrainian President Zelensky also spoke, noting he has good news and will brief Trump on the battlefield.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.55% at 6,657, NDX -0.73% at 24,580, DJI -0.19% at 46,293, RUT -0.24% at 2,458.
SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary -1.44%, Technology -1.14%, Communication Services -0.52%, Financials -0.44%, Materials -0.27%, Industrials +0.01%, Health +0.24%, Consumer Staples +0.36%, Utilities +0.54%, Real Estate +0.81%, Energy +1.71%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.64% at 5,477, Dax 40 +0.40% at 23,631, FTSE 100 +0.01% at 9,228, CAC 40 +0.54% at 7,872, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 42,508, IBEX 35 +0.50% at 15,171, PSI +1.20% at 7,812, SMI -0.14% at 12,106, AEX +0.43% at 935
AutoZone (AZO): EPS missed expectations.
Sempra (SRE): To sell equity interest in SRE Infrastructure Partners for USD 10bln; affirmed 2026 profit outlook.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY): Reported a wider loss and lower revenue than expected.
Vistra (VST): Downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Jefferies.
CoreWeave (CRWV): Upgraded at Wells Fargo to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
Symbotic (SYM): Downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Upgraded at Guggenheim to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
Lam Research (LRCX): Downgraded to ‘Sector Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at KeyBanc.
Vertiv (VRT), Eaton (ETN), and Modine (MOD) seeing downside on a Microsoft (MSFT) blog post that suggests AI chips are getting hotter; a microfluidics breakthrough goes straight to the silicon to cool up to three times better.
Eli Lilly (LLY): Plans to build a new USD 6.5bln facility to manufacture active pharmaceutical ingredients in Texas. The new site will be among those that will manufacture Orforglipron.
Disney (DIS): Raising the price of Disney Plus subscriptions from October 21st, The Verge reports.
OpenAI and Oracle (ORCL) are to announce data centre expansion in Texas, The Information reports.
Chevron (CVX) exports of Venezuelan oil have halved under new US authorisation, according to sources cited by Reuters; Exports have been effectively halved to roughly 120,000 BPD.
FX
The Dollar Index was slightly lower, weighed by strength in JPY, CHF, and EUR. S&P Global PMIs largely met expectations in September, resulting in a very muted reaction across markets. The focus, however, was on Fedspeak. Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman further expressed concerns over the labour market; however, her view on the FFR by year-end is in line with the Fed median and her previous stance. Meanwhile, Chair Powell revealed little new, once again highlighting increased risk on the labour side of the mandate and expressing that most of the committee’s base case is that tariff-driven inflation effects will be short-lived and will be finished by the end of next year. At the BoC, Governor Macklem suspects USD will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future, but noted that recent US policy has dented investor confidence in the Greenback. DXY now trades at ~ 97.25 from earlier highs of 97.463.
G10FX price action was generally muted across dollar pairs. The Euro was marginally higher following mixed PMI reports out of Europe; Services and Manufacturing deteriorated more than expected in France, amid the sharpest weakening in economic activity since April. Meanwhile, a surprise expansionary reading in Germany’s Services PMI reading, 52.5 (exp. 49.5, prev. 49.3), helped EUR regain lost ground arising from the poor French figure. Later in the session, the German Institute revised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2025, now seeing 0.2% (prev. 0.1%). It kept its 2026 forecast of 1.3%, and provided an initial estimate for 2027 of 1.4%. Note, prior forecasts had factored in initial US tariffs on steel, aluminium, and cars, but not the 15% tariff on other goods. EUR/USD sits at ~1.1810, just off 1.1819 highs.
The Riksbank surprised markets with a 25bps cut, despite expectations for rates to remain at 2.0%. The central bank argued that new information has given further reassurance regarding the assessment that the high inflation is transitory, for example, companies’ pricing plans have declined, and the krona has strengthened. SEK initially came under pressure, but now sits modestly firmer against EUR on a few key developments. Firstly, Seim dissented on the decision in favour of unchanged rates and a policy path signalling some probability of a further rate cut this year. Secondly, Riksbank now views the current rate at terminal and has also revised up their GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027
In the UK, the Flash Composite PMI reading for September fell more than expected to 51.0 (exp. 53.0, prev. 53.5), weighed by steeper declines in the Manufacturing and Services components. “The only good news is price pressures have moderated in September”, said S&P Global. Gilts and Sterling came under pressure at the time; however, Sterling recovered most of said weakness, now standing at 1.3515. Elsewhere, BoE’s Pill said they may need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy.
EMFX: The surge in ARS continued on Tuesday following the US Treasury Secretary’s announcement of incoming support measures. Today, the World Bank said it will accelerate support for Argentina and will combine public sector financing and private sector investment to deploy up to USD 4bln in Argentina in the coming months. Over in India, traders cited by Reuters said the RBI is selling USD via state-run banks to support the INR after hitting record lows. Some market participants attribute the H-1B visa changes as one of the several factors putting downward pressure on the rupee.
DATA RELEASES
September ‘Soft’ Survey Data Dips But Q3 Still ‘Best Quarter’ Of The Year For US Business
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 10:01 AM
Following August’s big bonce in US Manufacturing survey data, the preliminary September data shows weakness for both Services and Manufacturing (despite strength in the hard data).
Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 53.9 (August: 54.5). 3-month low.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 (August: 53.0). 2-month low.
“PMI survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.2% annualized rate in the third quarter.”
It;’s not all goldilocks though:
“However, the monthly profile is one of growth having slowed from its recent peak back in July, and September saw companies also pull back on their hiring. Softening demand conditions are also becoming more widely reported, curbing pricing power. Although tariffs were again cited as a driver of higher input costs across both manufacturing and services, the number of companies able to hike selling prices to pass these costs on to customers has fallen, hinting at squeezed margins but boding well for inflation to moderate.
“The survey data are nevertheless still indicative of consumer inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target in the coming months. However, in manufacturing, there are also signs that disappointing sales growth has caused inventories to accumulate at an unprecedented rate, which could also further help soften inflation in the coming months.
“The inventory build-up of course also hints at some downside risks to future production. While growth expectations across both manufacturing and services also continue to be dogged by concerns over the political environment, and especially tariffs, September encouragingly saw business sentiment improve in part due to the anticipated beneficial impact of lower interest rates.”
Looking ahead, companies’ expectations about output in the year ahead improved to a four-month high in September yet remained below the survey’s long-run averages in both manufacturing and services. Service sector sentiment picked up to the highest level since May, while a three-month high was recorded in September.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
the huge story of the month:
Antifa Designated ‘Domestic Terror Group’ As White House Declares War On Radical Leftist Groups
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 07:11 AM
President Trump signed an executive order designating the Antifa movement a “domestic terrorist organization” in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s political assassination nearly two weeks ago.
Antifa is a militarist, anarchist enterprise that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the United States Government, law enforcement authorities, and our system of law. It uses illegal means to organize and execute a campaign of violence and terrorism nationwide to accomplish these goals. This campaign involves coordinated efforts to obstruct enforcement of Federal laws through armed standoffs with law enforcement, organized riots, violent assaults on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other law enforcement officers, and routine doxing of and other threats against political figures and activists. Antifa recruits, trains, and radicalizes young Americans to engage in this violence and suppression of political activity, then employs elaborate means and mechanisms to shield the identities of its operatives, conceal its funding sources and operations in an effort to frustrate law enforcement, and recruit additional members. Individuals associated with and acting on behalf of Antifa further coordinate with other organizations and entities for the purpose of spreading, fomenting, and advancing political violence and suppressing lawful political speech. This organized effort designed to achieve policy objectives by coercion and intimidation is domestic terrorism.
Sec. 2. Designation as a Domestic Terrorist Organization.
Because of the aforementioned pattern of political violence designed to suppress lawful political activity and obstruct the rule of law, I hereby designate Antifa as a “domestic terrorist organization.” All relevant executive departments and agencies shall utilize all applicable authorities to investigate, disrupt, and dismantle any and all illegal operations –especially those involving terrorist actions — conducted by Antifa or any person claiming to act on behalf of Antifa, or for which Antifa or any person claiming to act on behalf of Antifa provided material support, including necessary investigatory and prosecutorial actions against those who fund such operations.
Sec. 3. General Provisions.
(a) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
(b) This order shall be published in the Federal Register.
This is a move that is not merely symbolic but also puts other radical leftist groups, including dark-money-funded NGOs, on heightened alert. The federal government’s new strategy aims to “disrupt and dismantle” the command-and-control nodes of radical leftist groups seeking to subvert the nation in an attempted Marxist takeover.
The designation doesn’t create new criminal charges against Antifa, but it allows the FBI, DHS, and DOJ to ramp up investigations under terrorism statutes and potentially deploy Patriot Act surveillance against the decentralized terror org. As a result, Antifa, which relies on platforms like Signal and Discord, may be forced to reconfigure its communication networks when planning future attacks, given the increased federal monitoring.
What this designation also means is that if Antifa commits a violent crime that meets the federal definition of terrorism (using force to influence government or intimidate a population), prosecutors can apply longer sentencing. This will act as a deterrent for Antifa revolutionaries who have been able to get away with violent crimes for years. This designation will also shift more funding, surveillance tools, and inter-agency cooperation toward it, such as a much-needed NGO-busting task force to counter radical leftist groups (or the deep state).
Stephen Miller says Charlie Kirk’s final message to him was a call to take down and dismantle violent left-wing groups.
He vows to carry that mission forward.
“The last message that Charlie sent me was, I think it was just the day before we lost him, which is that we need to… pic.twitter.com/Gl5i9ojBmK
Additionally, the designation encompasses any financial contribution or logistical support, including purchasing gas masks, buying hammers or weapons, or renting vans, which can be prosecuted as “material support for terrorism.” This gives the feds leverage to target Antifa’s money networks. By compelling reporting from banks and platforms, the feds could build a network of money sources for Antifa-related funds, including grassroots donors, NGOs, international groups, billionaires, and state actors, and track how these funds are distributed locally (e.g., bail funds, travel stipends, street gear).
Designating Antifa is a great step. The fact that it originated in Germany sets a significant precedent for designating it as a terror org, which would allow us to treat the American chapter with the seriousness it deserves. That is not where the foreign influence stops, though. There was a recent antifascist forum in Moscow, attended by members of Jackson Hinkle’s “American Communist Party.” For those unaware, he and another member of the org, Christopher Helali, help manage this organization from Moscow.
The Democratic Socialists of America (think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib) also publicly voted in 2019 to establish Antifa working groups as an official arm of their operation.
Mike Benz explains how the Antifa network has a very ugly marriage with the Deep State…
Antifa is a global network. From Germany against AfD, to France against Le Pen, to Spain against Vox, to Hungary against Orban, to Belarus against Lukashenko, to Syria against Assad, Antifa’s actions — violent shutdown of speech & events of targeted political groups, ecoterrorism to push climate agenda policies, attacks to break up anti-vaccine meetings — has perfectly line up with the exact policy goals of the prior State Dept, CIA, USAID, Pentagon, and USIP goals in each region. It’s time to crack open each agency’s files. Classified and unclassified. We need to know, both at home and abroad, every touch point, every fibre of connective tissue, between each of those federal governance agencies and so-called “antifascist” networks at each of the State Dept, CIA, USAID, Pentagon, and US Institute of Peace. Each agency should conduct its own internal review and analysis of all files, doing both internal keyword searches and regional-level reviews. Add FBI and DHS to cover the domestic side. All 7 of these agencies should commit within 6 months to making all such files public.
For a decade, Democrats and their radical leftist groups normalized assassination culture by labeling President Trump, MAGA, and anyone they didn’t like as “Fascists,” “Nazis,” and “Racists,” and many other hateful words.
Where did Charlie Kirk's murderer learn to call conservatives "fascists"?
SECOND BIG STORY OF THE DAY: TRUMP IS CORRECT ON ALL THINGS SAID
After Pre-Speech ‘Sabotage’, Trump Unleashes Hell At UN
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 11:25 AM
Update (1125ET):
President Trump’s hour-long speech ended around 1100 ET.
Among the many targets for criticism in Trump’s address:
United Nations
London mayor
European countries abetting “uncontrolled migration”
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Countries that have recognized Palestinian statehood
Former US President Joe Biden
Windmills
Climate Change Hoax
Anti-Globalist
Trump’s most notable quotes:
Climate change is “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.”
“You’re destroying your countries. They’re being destroyed.”
The “number one political issue of our time” is “the crisis of uncontrolled migration.”
Rewatch Trump’s UN Speech
Update (1033ET):
President Trump is now speaking at the United Nations General Assembly…
Here’s the latest:
Trump’s address begins more like a State of the Union than a UN General Assembly speech. He’s mentioned mortgage rates, inflation, the stock market (twice), tax cuts, regulation – and boasted about how the US is the “best country” in which to do business. -via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michael Jamrisko
Trump begins by bragging that “we are the hottest country anywhere in the world, and there is no other country even close.” -via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump boasts about the US economy. “We are rapidly reversing the economic calamity we inherited from the previous administration, including ruinous price increases and record-setting inflation, inflation like we’ve never had before. Under my leadership, energy costs are down, gasoline prices are down, grocery prices are down, mortgage rates are down, and inflation has been defeated. The only thing that’s up is the stock market, which just hit a record high.” -via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump is now boasting about resolving the “seven wars” that were “un-endable.” -via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michael Jamrisko
Trump complains that the United Nations wasn’t part of his work to end wars around the world. “The UN has such tremendous potential. I’ve always said it. It has such tremendous, tremendous, tremendous potential. But it’s not even coming close to living up to that potential,” Trump says. -via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump is now going into details about the death and destruction in the Ukraine war, taking a swipe at predecessor Joe Biden and saying “It shows you what leadership is, what bad leadership can do to a country.” -via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump says the US is fully prepared to impose “a very strong round of powerful tariffs, which would stop the bloodshed, I believe, very quickly” if Putin doesn’t agree to end the war in Ukraine. That’s a threat he’s made several times this year without following through.-via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump says European nations must “immediately cease all energy purchases from Russia. Otherwise, we’re all wasting a lot of time.”-via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
Trump chastises the UN for “creating new problems for us to solve,” highlighting uncontrolled immigration at the top of the list. -via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michelle Jamrisko
Trump said the “number one political issue of our time” is “the crisis of uncontrolled migration.” Trump made illegal immigration the central issue of his reelection campaign and has carried out mass deportations since taking office. -via Bloomberg White House Correspondent Kate Sullivan
After a brief preview of a US call for the world to come together to end the development of biological weapons, Trump dives into a discussion of migration, saying that he has stopped their illegal arrival to the US, and calls on other countries to take their own steps to protect their own borders.-via Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter Eric Martin
“You’re destroying your countries. They’re being destroyed,” Trump says, calling out Europe for allowing “illegal aliens” to “pour in.” -via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michelle Jamrisko
Trump torches many climate alarmist leaders at the event. He called climate change “one of the greatest con jobs” ever.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just clowned the United Nations' environmentalists previously predicting "climate change would cause a global catastrophe."
"All of these predictions made by the United Nations were WRONG, made by stupid people that cost their countries fortunes!"… pic.twitter.com/LPpBbgNrK1
“You want to be nice. You want to be politically correct. And you’re destroying your heritage,” Trump says, going back to his criticisms on migration policies. -via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michelle Jamrisko
Trump’s critique of the UN comes as his administration is attempting to cancel millions in funding to UN agencies and other international organizations, several of which depend heavily on US funding. -via Bloomberg Chief Geoeconomics Analyst Jennifer Welch
“The primary effect of green policies has been to redistribute manufacturing from developed countries to polluting countries that break the rules,” Trump says, continuing his tirade on climate policies. He says he withdrew from the “fake Paris climate accord.”-via Bloomberg White House & National Security Editor Michelle Jamrisko
Before Trump spoke, the escalator stopped working the moment he stepped on it, and the teleprompter failed just seconds before he began. Sabotage??
This is insane…
As Trump arrived to the UN, the escalator stopped working the moment he stepped on it.
Then the teleprompter stopped working the moment he got up to the podium to speak. pic.twitter.com/XBTgfr6zJ8
Trump’s concluding message: “Let us all work together to build a bright, beautiful planet, a planet that we all share, a planet of peace and a world that is richer, better and more beautiful than ever before. That can happen. It will happen. It will happen, and I hope it can happen, and start right now, right at this moment, we’ll turn it around. We’re going to make our countries better, safer, more beautiful. We’re going to take care of our people.”
* * *
Tuesday is a big day in New York, as Trump returns to his home city for a much anticipated address before the United Nations General Assembly amid the week-long UN summit, where he’s expected to lay out his ‘vision for the world’. This one marks the 80th anniversary of the UN, and all eyes will be on the globe’s biggest stage for world leaders.
Interestingly, he’ll actually be the second world leader to address the general assembly on Tuesday. Trump will follow left-wing President Lula of Brazil, who actually says he’s not on speaking terms with the US president, especially given the ongoing Bolsonaro trial and tariff saga which has sent relations with Washington spiraling. Trump is to speak at 09:50 ET 14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly. Watch Live:
The White House has previewed that Trump while at the UN headquarters will hold a multilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan while at the gathering. There will additionally be a bilateral meeting with Argentina’s conservative President Milei.
An important meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelensky on the sidelines is also planned. “I would like to receive the signals, how close we are to understanding that the security guarantees from all partners are those what we need,” Zelensky said before preparing to travel to the US, according to Bloomberg.
“We have prepared the basis for security guarantees that Europe is ready to adopt, taking into account that the United States of America will be there,” the Ukrainian leader continued. “We have had many discussions, including among the leadership of our armies and general staffs with the Europeans and the Americans.”
The Ukraine war and potential for build-up to WW3 if a negotiated offramp is not found is expected to receive mention, but also the conflict in Gaza is expected to dominate the assembly.
Relations with America’s leading European allies are currently strained on the Palestinian issue, given the UK, France, and many others have moved to formally recognize a Palestinian state, resulting in condemnation from the US and Israel. Trump will likely raise the issue in his speech, and offer push-back.
The White House has further previewed that Trump will describe “how globalist institutions have significantly decayed the world order, and he will articulate his straightforward constructive vision for the world.”
Karoline Leavitt also said he’ll review the administration’s “historic accomplishments in just eight months, including the ending of seven global wars and conflicts.” It will further include “touting the renewal of American strength around the world.”
While not in attendance, without doubt Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other ‘rivals’ and ‘enemies’ of the United States will be following Trump’s speech very closely.
USA/NATO/RUSSIA
New UN Amb. Mike Waltz Comes Out Swinging: ‘Will Defend Every Inch Of NATO Territory’ Against Russia
Monday, Sep 22, 2025 – 06:00 PM
It was only days ago that new US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz was belatedly confirmed by the Senate, in a drawn-out and somewhat embarrassing ordeal which took six months. Waltz took his seat at the UN Security Council for the first time Monday, and already came out swinging with anti-Russian sentiment, and appearing to side with the hawks in NATO.
“The United States stands by our NATO allies in the face of these airspace violations,” Waltz said. “And I want to take this first opportunity to repeat and to emphasize the United States and our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory.”
Estonia and its partners in Europe have been making a lot of noise over the alleged Russian jet violation of its airspace days ago, which Moscow has vehemently rejected.
Days prior to that, there were reported drone incursion incidents also in NATO member Poland and Romania, resulting in jets being scrambled to monitor and intercept the UAVs which had been initially operating over Ukraine.
While Waltz’s warnings can be seen as hawkish, in his prior national security advisory position, he expressed Trump’s vision that Ukraine will never be in NATO. For example, last spring:
National security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday the U.S. does “not see Ukraine being a member of NATO.”
“One thing is clear, we do not see Ukraine being a member of NATO, because that would automatically drag U.S. troops in,” Waltz told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”
That prior position appears incongruous with the new assertions as UN ambassador that the United States is ready to ‘defend every inch’ of NATO.
Even Trump last week downplayed the drone incidents as well as latest jet incursions in Estonia. Trump merely said over the weekend “I don’t like it” and previously suggested the drone activity was inadvertent.
To review of Waltz’s tumultuous path toward the UN ambassadorship:
The vote on Waltz could easily have gone the other way. When his confirmation vote reached the floor, 10 senators were absent (there’s a reason Friday afternoon votes are uncommon), and Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky opposed Trump’s nominee.
That might’ve spelled doom for Waltz, were it not for the fact that three Senate Democrats — Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire — voted to confirm him, resulting in a 47-43 final tally.
This outcome might’ve been difficult to imagine in the spring. As regular readers know, Waltz’s troubles began in earnest, of course, in March after he organized a Signal chat to discuss sensitive operational details of a foreign military strike. That chat accidentally included a journalist.
In the days that followed, there were multiple reports that the Signal chat about a military operation in Yemen was not the first of its kind and that Waltz also allegedly used a private email account to conduct government business.
Publicly, the White House backed Waltz, but NBC News reported that Trump had privately “expressed frustration” with his aide.
Despite all of this Waltz will be even more visible, representing the US administration at the United Nations – where President Trump is getting ready to address the General Assembly on Tuesday.
END
Watch Live: Trump Sets Out His ‘Vision For The World’ In Key UN Assembly Address
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 09:45 AM
Tuesday is a big day in New York, as Trump returns to his home city for a much anticipated address before the United Nations General Assembly amid the week-long UN summit, where he’s expected to lay out his ‘vision for the world’. This one marks the 80th anniversary of the UN, and all eyes will be on the globe’s biggest stage for world leaders.
Interestingly, he’ll actually be the second world leader to address the general assembly on Tuesday. Trump will follow left-wing President Lula of Brazil, who actually says he’s not on speaking terms with the US president, especially given the ongoing Bolsonaro trial and tariff saga which has sent relations with Washington spiraling. Trump is to speak at 09:50 ET 14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly. Watch Live:
The White House has previewed that Trump while at the UN headquarters will hold a multilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan while at the gathering. There will additionally be a bilateral meeting with Argentina’s conservative President Milei.
An important meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelensky on the sidelines is also planned. “I would like to receive the signals, how close we are to understanding that the security guarantees from all partners are those what we need,” Zelensky said before preparing to travel to the US, according to Bloomberg.
“We have prepared the basis for security guarantees that Europe is ready to adopt, taking into account that the United States of America will be there,” the Ukrainian leader continued. “We have had many discussions, including among the leadership of our armies and general staffs with the Europeans and the Americans.”
The Ukraine war and potential for build-up to WW3 if a negotiated offramp is not found is expected to receive mention, but also the conflict in Gaza is expected to dominate the assembly.
Relations with America’s leading European allies are currently strained on the Palestinian issue, given the UK, France, and many others have moved to formally recognize a Palestinian state, resulting in condemnation from the US and Israel. Trump will likely raise the issue in his speech, and offer push-back.
The White House has further previewed that Trump will describe “how globalist institutions have significantly decayed the world order, and he will articulate his straightforward constructive vision for the world.”
Karoline Leavitt also said he’ll review the administration’s “historic accomplishments in just eight months, including the ending of seven global wars and conflicts.” It will further include “touting the renewal of American strength around the world.”
While not in attendance, without doubt Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other ‘rivals’ and ‘enemies’ of the United States will be following Trump’s speech very closely.
end
No Clear Path Forward As Government Shutdown Looms: What To Know
With the deadline for a government shutdown less than a week away, there’s no clear agreement between the two major parties on how to move forward.
Government funding is set to expire on Sept. 30. Republicans have been broadly united in their support of a clean continuing resolution (CR), Washington terminology for a stopgap funding bill. President Donald Trump has also backed a clean CR.
Republicans cannot keep the government open on their own. Under Senate rules, Republicans will need the support of multiple Democrats in that chamber to avert a government shutdown, and Democrats have placed conditions on their support.
With both sides entrenched in their positions, it’s unclear how lawmakers will reach an agreement to keep the government open.
Here’s what to know.
Government Shutdown
A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to fund one or multiple sectors of the federal government.
Every year, Congress must pass a total of 12 spending bills for various areas of federal appropriations, such as funding for defense, agriculture, education, and other outlays.
So far, Congress has not sent any of those finalized funding bills to Trump’s desk.
Government funding expires at the end of a fiscal year, Sept. 30.
Currently, the government is being funded through a CR, which Republicans passed in March, punting the government funding deadline to the normal Sept. 30 date.
U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) speaks to the press outside the U.S. Capitol, as the only Republican to vote against passing the House legislation to fund the government through Sept. 30 and avert a shutdown, on March 11, 2025. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images
The minority party often uses government funding deadlines as an opportunity to win policy concessions or other demands from the administration.
Republicans Want Clean CR
Trump and other Republican leaders have pushed for the passage of a clean CR, which describes a stopgap funding bill that largely keeps numbers at their previous levels without the addition of many additional bill riders or new appropriations.
“The CR is simply a means to an end; it is a way to fund the government until you have an opportunity to do the appropriations process,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said at a Sept. 19 press conference.
Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) speaks to reporters at a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 3, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
Last week, House Republicans passed such a bill in a 217–212 vote. It would extend government funding for around seven weeks, pushing the deadline to Nov. 21.
Two Republicans, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), voted against the bill.
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) didn’t vote, but said she supported a CR in a post on X.
The proposal was rejected by the Senate after it failed to garner enough support to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold, as was a competing proposal put forward by Democrats.
Democrats Demand $1 Trillion Funding Change
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said Democrats won’t give their backing unless Republicans agree to modify the health care sections of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut nearly a trillion dollars in Medicaid spending.
Those Medicaid cuts helped offset the cost of making the bill’s tax cuts for top earners permanent, which would make it difficult for Republicans to accept Democrats’ demands even if they were open to the proposal.
Republican backers of the bill say that its Medicaid cuts solely targeted waste, fraud, and abuse.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks to reporters at a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 3, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
Democrats have pointed to Congressional Budget Office estimates that more than 10 million Americans will lose coverage under the bill and highlighted the potential impact the plan could have on small rural hospitals.
In exchange for their backing of a funding bill to keep the government open, Democrats are demanding an extension in subsidies for low- and middle-income Americans who purchased health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare.
They propose reversing Medicaid cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The Democrats’ alternative CR, rejected by the Senate, would have carried out these aims.
Thune has criticized these demands.
“The suggestion by the Democrats that somehow they ought to be able to hijack a continuing resolution to attach a trillion dollars of policy … is completely out of any historical context of what continuing resolutions have been used for in the past,” Thune said.
What’s Next?
With Republicans dug in on a clean CR, and Democrats dug in on rescinding key provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, it’s unclear what comes next in the ongoing standoff.
On Saturday, Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) asked Trump for a meeting.
On Sept. 17, Schumer said that Democrats “don’t have a red line” and are willing to discuss a way forward.
“We will sit down and negotiate if they will sit down and negotiate,” Schumer said.
Trump has encouraged Republicans to hold in their insistence on a clean CR.
U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House on Sept. 19, 2025. Ken Cedeno/Reuters
In a post on Truth Social, Trump encouraged Republicans to “stick TOGETHER to fight back against the Radical Left Democrat demands” by voting in favor of a clean CR.
“Congressional Republicans, including Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson, are working on a short term ‘CLEAN’ extension of Government Funding to stop Cryin’ Chuck Schumer from shutting down the Government,” Trump said.
“Democrats want the Government to shut down. Republicans want the Government to OPEN.”
Compounding the difficulties of reaching an agreement, most of Congress is currently out of town.
The Senate isn’t expected to return until Sept. 29, while the House isn’t scheduled to return until October.
Unless Democrats reach an agreement to vote on the clean CR passed by the House last week, Republicans could face a choice between a government shutdown and an early return to Capitol Hill.
end
WOW! THIS COULD HAVE BEEN VERY DAMAGING!
Secret Service Dismantles Weaponized SIM Farms Designed To “Shut Down” NYC Cell Networks
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Hours before President Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations General Assembly, the U.S. Secret Service announced that it had dismantled a massive, decentralized SIM farm network, just 35 miles from New York City, hidden inside five abandoned apartment buildings. The telecommunications stealth weapon was capable of paralyzing regional cell networks through denial-of-service attacks.
Key Details from the Secret Service Report:
Investigators seized 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards across multiple sites.
The devices enabled anonymous threats, encrypted communications, and could launch telecom attacks such as:
Disabling cell towers
Denial-of-service attacks
Secure communication for criminal enterprises
Early analysis shows links between nation-state actors and known criminals.
CBS News described the seizure as the largest of its kind, noting the network was scattered across abandoned apartment buildings at more than five sites, roughly 35 miles from New York City.
“This network had the potential to disable cell phone towers and essentially shut down the cellular network in New York City,” Secret Service Special Agent in Charge Matt McCool stated in a video released in the report by the agency.
Beyond DDoS attacks, the SIM farms could also support psychological warfare operations such as:
CBS, citing multiple officials briefed on the probe, reported that early findings suggest the network was used for communications between foreign governments and individuals already known to U.S. law enforcement.
In our view, the likelihood of this being part of a larger threat vector for potential physical terrorism appears elevated. Consider this: disrupting communications in tandem with a physical attack would be the playbook for foreign adversaries – or perhaps even the globalist …
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report September 23, 2025 Issue 7582
Independent View of the News
China’s Central Bank Revives Liquidity Tool (14-day reverse repo) Before Long Holiday – BBG China’s central bank has dusted off a liquidity instrument it last used eight months ago, part of a move to flood the banking system with cash before the Golden Week public holiday…
PBOC Injects Net 260.5bn Yuan in Open Market Operation – BBG 240.5B yuan of 7-day reverse repos; 300B yuan of 14-day reverse repos
The Big Story on Monday: Gold soared to a new high due to Chinese buying and PBOC largesse.
Physical gold hit 3748.84 at 13:55 ET. December gold hit 3783.20; December silver hit $44.395. Physical silver hit 44.1175, its highest level since the inflation scare (on European debt woes) of 2011. Normally gold soars during Asian and European trading and then gets clipped on dealer selling during US trading. However, gold hit it peak near 15:00 ET. Are US entities getting squeezed on their gold shorts?
Bitcoin declined sharply; probably on the painful unwind of traders that bought crypto and shorted gold.
Despite the PBOC yuan injection, ESZs opened modestly lower on Sunday night and dropped to moderate decline by 21:00 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs traded sideways until they broke down on the 3 ET European opening. After hitting a daily low of 6695.25 (-27.25) at 3:23 ET, conditioned dip buyers aggressively bought. ESZs jumped to 6711.50 at 4:19 ET. The dump appeared, ESZs fell to 6699.25 at 5:12 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs retreated and repeatedly fell modestly below 6700.
On each excursion below 6700, ESZs bounced modestly above 6700. Someone was adamant about keeping ESZs from falling significantly below 6700 and unleashing ‘key price level’ failure selling.
The final down dip took ESZs to 6700.00 at 9 ET. Buying for the NYSE opening, and The Monday Rally commenced. ESZs zoomed to a daily high of 6737.50 (+15.00) at 10:58 ET. After a retreat to 6728.50 at 11:54 ET, ESZs soared to a daily high of 6756.75 at 15:14 ET and eased lower to 6749.50 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session ESZs had a sharp rebound in early US trading on pattern buying The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, the Nas 100, and then DJIA hit all-time highs. AI stocks (Oracle’s +6.29%, NVDA 3.17%) boosted the Nas 100 and Nasdaq despite the selling in Fangs.
Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals soared all day! USZs declined as much as 10/21. Fangs were soft all session.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What are precious metals signaling? Is someone that is massively short gold “in trouble?”
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6680.24 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6698.07; 6648.07
@MarkSimoneNY: After pulling Jimmy Kimmel off the air, ABC has been running reruns of Celebrity Family Feud in his time slot and it’s getting much bigger ratings. So why bring Kimmel back? Overnight ratings for the September 18, 2025, *Celebrity Family Feud* rerun show 2.8 viewers —easily topping Kimmel’s recent averages of about 1.1 million viewers. This marks a roughly 150% lift in total viewership and a 200% jump in the key demo, so why pay a fortune for Jimmy Kimmel to bomb, when a free rerun does much better?
Disney will return “Jimmy Kimmel Live” to the air tonight. This is a huge gift to MAGA/ the GOP! Hollywood is terrified that other broadcasters will halt airing leftists and start running their companies for profit instead of being propaganda arms for leftists and Dems.
Disney: “Last Wednesday, we made the decision to suspend production on the show to avoid further inflaming a tense situation at an emotional moment for our country. It is a decision we made because we felt some of the comments were ill-timed and thus insensitive,” according to a statement from Disney. “We have spent the last days having thoughtful conversations with Jimmy, and after those conversations, we reached the decision to return the show on Tuesday.” https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1970212738447384869/photo/1
@JackPosobiec: Jimmy Kimmel lied about the identity of a violent domestic terrorist and blamed Charlie’s murder on MAGA. Now his show is coming back, and ABC didn’t even make him apologize. I don’t want to hear one word from the media about ‘misinformation’ ever again. Jimmy Kimmel isn’t getting his show back because ABC caved. He’s getting his show back because this was the plan all along.
@honestpollster: There are likely going to be negative ramifications for this. But I guess, ultimately, Disney decided that a leftist boycott was untenable.
@Heminator: So to be clear, leftists’ threats — which included actual gun violence — censored ABC stations. That’s much worse than what Carr did, and it will garner ZERO coverage from the same insincere free speech warriors on the left that spent the last week screaming.
Sinclair on 9/18/2025: “Sinclair will not lift the suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” on our stations until formal discussions are held with ABC regarding the network’s commitment to professionalism and accountability. Sinclair also calls upon Mr. Kimmel to issue a direct apology to the Kirk family. Furthermore, we ask Mr. Kimmel to make a meaningful personal donation to the Kirk Family and Turning Point USA. Regardless of ABC’s plans for the future of the program, Sinclair intends not to return “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” to our air until we are confident that appropriate steps have been taken to uphold the standards expected of a national broadcast platform.” https://www.businessinsider.com/sinclair-broadcasting-jimmy-kimmel-demands-2025-9
Sinclair, Inc. (@WeAreSinclair) tweeted at 7:16 PM on Mon, Sep 22, 2025: Beginning Tuesday night, Sinclair will be preempting Jimmy Kimmel Live! across our ABC affiliate stations and replacing it with news programming. Discussions with ABC are ongoing as we evaluate the show’s potential return.https://t.co/beGC6VID2x
@FoxNews: Trump administration announces use of acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, can increase the risk of autism when used during pregnancy.
Statement from Andrea Baccarelli, M.D., Ph.D., Dean of the Faculty at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health: “We found evidence of an association between exposure to acetaminophen during pregnancy and increased incidence of neurodevelopmental disorders in children...” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1970231872715415784
Today – If stocks are strong early, and they should be on momentum and inculcated early buying, be alert for selling later in the session on:
Sell Rosh Hashanah – Buy Yom Kippur Trading Strategy We backtested the cash index of S&P 500 from 1928 until today… Total return is 39%; CAGR is 0.34%; Time spent in the market is 2.52%; Risk adjusted return is 13.49%; Win rate is 53.12%; Average return is 0.39%…https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/sell-rosh-hashanah-buy-yom-kippur-strategy/
The S&P 500 Index high on Monday is 6698.99. 6700 will be important resistance.
Stocks are grossly overbought, and a retrenchment is due. The window for seasonal DOWNWARD bias opens later this week. Because stocks are at or near record levels, intuitions will be forced to sell billions of dollars in stocks to rebalance portfolios for the end of Q3. A significant amount of the proceeds should be earmarked for bonds.
ESUs are -3.50; NQUs are -14.75; Dec AU is +6.90; and USZs are -2/32 at 20:12 ET.
Expected economic data: Q2 Current Account Balance -$268.0B; Sept S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 51.9, Services 53.9; Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -9; Fed Gov Bowman 9 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 10 ET, Fed Chair Powell 12:35 ET on Economic Outlook in Warwick, Rhode Island
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6430; 100-day MA: 6197; 150-day MA: 6002; 200-day MA: 6004 DJIA 50-day MA: 44,997; 100-day MA: 43,806; 150-day MA: 43,038; 200-day MA: 43,219 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6693.76 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5447.29 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6320.67 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6554.11 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6667.99 triggers a sell signal
CNN commentators called out Dems for their inflammatory rhetoric! Man bites dog! But ‘safe district’ (AKA minority districts) Dems are doubling/tripling down on issuing hateful rhetoric!! CNN’s Pamela Brown Asks (Titular Dem House Leader) Hakeem Jeffries If He Is ‘Undermining’ Supreme Court After Shaming Conservative Justices “Donald Trump and these extremists have been destroying its integrity. And we should also blame the conservative justices on the Supreme Court for all of the things that we see happening… They basically gave Trump blanket presidential immunity… They’ve effectively enabled Donald Trump at times to behave just like a king. That needs to be revisited as well. The Supreme Court, shame on them for what they’ve done to this countryand unleashing this out of control behavior. That needs to be reversed.”… “Let me just follow up with you on that, though. By saying that, are you undermining trust and faith in a critical institution in this democracy? … You’re saying they’ve unleashed this, the justices have done this, they made him king,” Brown asked. “Are you undermining faith in an important institution in this democracy?”… Jeffries then said that he is “undermining faith” in the justices’ decision in the immunity decision, claiming that the decision “had no basis in law.”… https://www.aol.com/articles/cnn-pamela-brown-asks-hakeem-153023082.html
@TheChiefNerd: CNN’s Dana Bash Calls Out Jasmine Crockett’s Inflammatory Rhetoric to Her Face – BASH: “Do you have a responsibility as an elected official to … lower the temperature particularly when there are people out there who listen to elected officials, … who are not well, who use that as a way to instigate the political violence that you are calling out?”
CROCKETT: “I am using that language because it is accurate language … When we’re seeing all of this, that is a playbook out of H**ler and I won’t deny it. These are the facts.” https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1970042319148548589
@Chicago_Goofies: “The President is unstable; he’s an unstable man and a very double-minded individual. I will stand up against anyone who looks to disrupt and interrupt our democracy.” Mayor Brandon Johnson. https://x.com/Chicago_Goofies/status/1969879342013427935
@DavidJHarrisJr: At Riot Fest in Chicago (on Friday), performers staged a bloody mock disembowelment of President Trump while the crowd cheered. The left tells us to tone it down but they’re the ones cheering this kind of violence. https://x.com/DavidJHarrisJr/status/1970221715553956019
Did Dems send out ‘safe district’ black politicians to issue venomous remarks on Monday? Perhaps they are terrified of the effect of Charlie Kirk’s memorial service and broadcast on America. Reportedly, there are over 100 million views of at least some part of Kirk’s memorial service on social media. Plus, Trump’s approval ratings have jumped higher AND the GOP is surging in Midterm Election polls when historically the party in power falters.
PS – The highly religious content and themes of Kir’s memorial service outraged Dems and the media.
Chiefs CEO’s wife slams critics celebrating Charlie Kirk’s assassination Hunt has been outspoken after Kirk’s death “When a man’s life ended in public for having different beliefs, leaving a wife without a husband and 2 children without a father and you dismiss it or celebrate it, that has nothing to do with who he was, that is a reflection of who you are,” she wrote on her Instagram Stories… https://www.foxnews.com/sports/chiefs-ceos-wife-slams-critics-celebrating-charlie-kirks-assassination
Actor @RealJamesWoods: Another history lesson: Joseph Goebbels created a game plan to justify atrocities committed by the Third Reich. This plan is known historically as THE BIG LIE. The idea was to promote a falsehood repeatedly until it became an accepted truth. The “fascism” lie about conservative Americans is a classic example. It was promoted non-stop by irresponsible Democrats until it culminated in Charlie Kirk’s brutal public assassination. Democrats, dodging their culpability in this heinous act, have now dropped the “fascism” mantra, substituting the tiresome “Donald Trump is a king” mantra instead.The same BIG LIE, but shaped differently, so you won’t see the blood on their hands. Joseph Goebbels was a monster. Hakim Jeffries is merely a Dollar Store Obama, but dangerous nonetheless. This kind of hate speech will get another good man killed.
@TheRabbitHole84: Only 10% of Democrats are aware that Charlie Kirk’s killer was Left Wing. This represents a complete failure of Legacy Media to honestly inform its viewers. https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1969961223795228922
Outkick’s @ianmSC: Almost every single post from Hollywood right now is support for Jimmy Kimmel and free speech. Not one of them, not a single one, said anything about the Biden administration censoring accurate COVID information they didn’t like. That’s why nobody takes them seriously anymore.
@ClayTravis: Kamala Harris saying she called Gavin Newsom to ask for his support, he texted back “Hiking,” and said he would call her back and then never did call her back for her entire presidential campaign is honestly amazing.
The venal Obama-Biden administration tried to set up current border czar Tom Homan on bribery.
Justice Department ends ‘baseless’ probe into Trump border czar Tom Homan over alleged $50K bribe in Cava restaurant bag – the G-men presenting themselves as businessmen seeking border security contracts with the federal government… the unsuspecting Homan being investigated for bribery, although he was not serving in the federal government at the time… “This blatantly political investigation,which found no evidence of illegal activity, is yet another example of how the Biden Department of Justice was using its resources to target President Trump’s allies rather than investigate real criminals and the millions of illegal aliens who flooded our country,” said White House Deputy Press Secretary Abigail Jackson said in a statement… https://nypost.com/2025/09/22/us-news/feds-end-probe-into-tom-homan-over-alleged-bribe-in-cava-bag/
@aaronsibarium: The Supreme Court rules 6-3 that President Trump can fire Rebecca Slaughter, an FTC commissioner who argued that antitrust law should be “antiracist” and spoke approvingly of South Africa’s race-based merger guidelines. (Yep, the same 3 leftist justices still favor leftism.)
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Bill O’Reilly Shreds Liberals’ ‘Free Speech’ Spin Surrounding Jimmy Kimmel With One Brutal Fact
Jimmy Kimmel will finally return to the air on Tuesday night, after his show was briefly yanked for falsely labeling Kirk’s suspected assassin as “one of them” in a distasteful dig at conservatives.
Democrats rushed to defend Kimmel, calling it a “First Amendment issue.” But Bill O’Reilly says that story is, frankly, bullsh*t. The real free speech story, he argues, is what these mainstream networks have been doing for years.
Bill O’Reilly just RIPPED APART Jimmy Kimmel’s “freedom of speech” battle as nothing but BS.
He turned the tables with one brutal fact that blows the left’s entire narrative to pieces:
“Look, this [Trump v. Kimmel] story is bogus… The story is that Disney and Kimmel, for THREE… pic.twitter.com/gBN1FTewrp
Jimmy Kimmel will finally return to the air on Tuesday night, after his show was briefly yanked for falsely labeling Kirk’s suspected assassin as “one of them” in a distasteful dig at conservatives.
Democrats rushed to defend Kimmel, calling it a “First Amendment issue.” But Bill O’Reilly says that story is, frankly, bullsh*t. The real free speech story, he argues, is what these mainstream networks have been doing for years.
“Look, this [Trump v. Kimmel] story is bogus,” O’Reilly told Vittert. “The [real] story is that Disney and Kimmel, for three years, would not put on a non-liberal voice on his program.”
“You talk about no freedom of speech and expression? That story has been totally ignored,” O’Reilly lamented. “And it’s not just ABC. It was CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and CNN. Okay? They will not put any non-liberal voice on the air.”
O’Reilly recalled how, before the Trump era, he was booked regularly on mainstream networks. Now, he says he and other conservatives have been deliberately excluded from those programs — something he called “Putin stuff.”
“This whole freedom of speech BS is coming from the far left to make Kimmel a victim and to make Trump a villain when, for ten years, they have BANISHED all traditional conservative thought and discourse on all of their programs.”
“All of them,” O’Reilly continued. “They don’t want non-liberal voices. That is Putin stuff!”
harveyorganblog.com 
