WE HAVE NOW ENTERED OPTION EXPIRY MONTH:
COMEX OPTION EXPIRED YESTERDAY,SEPT 25. AND SEPT 30 IS LBMA LONDON EXPIRY
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118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 112
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 820
323 C HSBC 2 60
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 465
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 601
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 9 14
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 42
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 3
880 C CITIGROUP 3
880 H CITIGROUP 218
905 C ADM 33
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2025: 1157 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 115,700 OZ or 3.923 TONNES
total notices so far: 8119 contracts for 811,900 OR 25.253 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 56 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.280 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 13,584 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 67.920 million oz
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 41.810 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES ANND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
AND NOW SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.586 TONNES PLUS 0.000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 45.349 TONNES!!
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 100.703 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1489 CONTRACTS OI TO 167,627 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 350 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 640 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1489 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1839 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $1.44 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.195 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN $1.44 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 356.48 PTS OR 1.35%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 399.94PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.17%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1344 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1417/ Oil UP TO 65.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.41 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9755 CONTRACTS TO 516,312 OI with OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2623). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION(AS WE ARE IN OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK FOR SEPT.) WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 7132 CONTRACTS (OR 22.183 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 3 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 3 MONTHS 68.542 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
AND NOW:
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SIX ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 6,461 CONTRACTS OR 646,100 OZ OR 20.096 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SIX ISSUANCES FOR 6461 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 646,100 OZ OR 20.096 TONNES OF GOLD!!
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 113 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH SEPT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 113 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN DECEMBER 2024.
DETAILS ON SEPTEMBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7132 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 5.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A STRONG T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2776 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSES TO BUCKLE!!
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS (ALONG WITH PREVIOUS AUGUST MONTH- END SPREADERS) IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR THE FOLLOWING MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
AND NOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3.586 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH THE 0.000. TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 20.096 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.349 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 242 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST;
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
AND NOW SEPTEMBER:
SUMMARY SO FAR SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD COUPLED WITH TODAY;S 3.586 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND 0.0000 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY// NEW TOTALS OF 20.096 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.253 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) 0.0000 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY // =//TOTAL FOR MONTH EX FOPR RISK: 20.096 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) 3.586 TONNES TODAY QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.363 TONNES
TOTALS: 45.349 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/SEPTEMBER
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2623 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2623 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2623 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//THURSDAY BUT THIS HAD NO EFFECT ON OUR TOTAL OPEN INTEREST!!
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW COME IN THE PICTURE AND IT SURELY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE NO DAMAGE TO THE PRICE OF GOLD SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED DURING AUGUST EXPIRY MONTH.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//SEPT.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1679 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
3) TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 20.096 TONNES.
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 8 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES FOLLOWED TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW SEPT:
SEPT: 25.233 TONNES OF GOLD (INCLUDES TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP) +0.0000 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY//
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPTADVANCES TO 45.349 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $5.70./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY. MUCH OF THAT GAIN IN OI FOR OUR TWO EXCHANGES WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH SPECULATIVE LONGS PILING INTO COMEX GOLD TRADING COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!! /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH ARE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS, LET US SEE IF OUR CROOKS AGAIN FAIL AGAIN ON THIS SEPT. OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK , LIKE THEY DID IN AUGUST. COMEX EXPIRY IS CONCLUDED YESTERDAY, SEPT 25 AND LBMA LONDON EXPIRY IS FINISHING TUESDAY SEPT 30.
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS SEPT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// SEPT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS TOTAL OF 22.183 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER AT 8.093 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING QUEUE JUMP OF 3.586 TONNES OF GOLD ALONG WITH 0.0000 TOTAL TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY/// TOTAL FOR MONTH TOTALS EX FOR RISK// MONTH = 20.096//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD IN SEPT ADVANCES TO: 45.349 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.70
WE HAD A MAMMOTH 10,738 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7132 CONTRACTS OR 713,200 0Z (22.183TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 330,734 contracts// strong//
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
SEPT CONTRACT MONTH
SEPT 25 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 entries a) Out of Brinks 289.359 oz (9 kilobars) b) Out of JPMorgan: 289,356.9 (9 kilobars) total withdrawal 578.315 ox (18 kilobars) . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRIES i) Into JPMorgan: 24,113.250 oz (750 kilobars) total deposit: 24,113.250 oz 0.75 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1197 notice(s) 119,700 OZ 3.723 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 00 contracts 00 OZ 0.000 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 8119 notices 811,900 oz 25.253 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRIES
i) Into JPMorgan: 24,113.250 oz
(750 kilobars)
total deposit: 24,113.250 oz
0.75 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
2 entries
a) Out of Brinks 289.359 oz (9 kilobars)
b) Out of JPMorgan: 289,356.9 (9 kilobars)
total withdrawal 578.315 ox (18 kilobars)
ADJUSTMENTs 1
ADJUSTMENTs 3
customer to dealer:
a) Asahi 32,009.349 oz
volume at the comex: THURSDAY 299,614 oz (good)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER STANDS AT 1197 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 841 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 312 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 1153 CONTRACTS OR 115,300 OZ ENTERTAINED A QUEUE JUMP OF 3.586 TONNES. WE NOW MUST ADD TO OUR INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING TO TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.586 TONNES, ADDING TO PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS AND THEN ADD MONTH SEPT// EX FOR RISK = 20.096//(WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 0.000 TONNES EX. FOR RISK) THUS NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.349 TONNES
OCTOBER LOST 9486 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 34,081
NOVEMBER GAINED 153 CONTRACTS UP TO 4396 CONTRACTS.
We had 1197 contracts filed for today representing 119,700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1197 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPTEMBER /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8119 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT ( 1197 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1197 x 100 oz per contract) equals 811,900 OZ OR 25.253 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL EX FOR RISK/SEPT MONTH OF 20.096 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.349 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (8119 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT. (1197 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1197 x 100 oz) which equals 811,900 OZ OR 25.233 TONNES PLUS 20.096 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 45.349 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT..: 45.349 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY INACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,996,286.363 oz 62.09 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,946,410.448 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,813,553.599 or 678.49 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,132,856.849 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 19,817.267oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 616.40 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE SEPTEMBER 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
SEPT 26 2025
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entry a) Out of Loomis: 91,238.350 oz total withdrawal: 91,278.350 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Into CNT 506,764.780 oz iii) Into Delaware 1074.413 oz total deposit 507,839.193 oz oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 56 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.280 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 24 contracts (0.120 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 13,584 Contracts (67.920 million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 entries
i) Into CNT 506,764.780 oz
iii) Into Delaware 1074.413 oz
total deposit 507,839.193 oz oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entry
1 entry
a) Out of Loomis: 91,238.350 oz
total withdrawal: 91,278.350 oz
adjustments:
1
out of CNT dealer to customer acccount: 599,143.700 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 195.699 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 530.344 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER /2025 OI: 80 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 104 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 88 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 16 CONTRACTS OR 80,000 OZ ENTERTAINED AN E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND..//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER COMEX DECREASES TO 68.040 MILLION OZ. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 71.040 MILLION OZ. OUR BANKERS NOW FIND IT NECESSARY TO TAKE SOME OF THEIR DELIVERIES AT THE LBMA IN LONDON.
STANDING FOR SILVER: 71.040 MILLION OZ
OCTOBER LOST 182 CONTRACTS TO 2959
NOVEMBER GAINED 28 CONTRACTS UP TO 2227.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 56 or 0.280 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 108,588 huge//
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,584 X5,000 oz = 67.640 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (80) AND the number of notices served upon today (56 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER 2025 contract month: (13,584) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPTEMBER(80) minus number of notices served upon today (56)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month equating to 68.040 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK SEPT TOTALLING 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 71.040 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 71.040 million oz which is STILL HUGE for this active delivery month of SEPT.. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 195/699 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/530.344 million. 39.62%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.21 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $29.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.21 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 965. TONNES
AUGUST 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD//// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 961.36 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.22 TONNES
AUGUST 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.55 TODAY//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT DEPOSIT OF 0.55 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.64 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/://// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 996.85 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.29/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 1.09 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.091 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.41/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 545,000 OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.181 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.64/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 9.173 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ARRIVES AT THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.726 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.06/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF .909 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.553 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER UP $0.62/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.317 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.462 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.18 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.145 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.905 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.965 MILLION OZ.//
AUGUST 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.20/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV//:.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.870 MILLION OZ.//
CLOSING INVENTORY 494.802 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
JAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
A horror story in paper markets
Our headline chart shows silver storming ahead amid reports of backwardations and soaring lease rates. Will it continue, and will gold be next?
| Alasdair MacleodSep 26∙Paid |
Driven by poor liquidity, in Europe this morning silver was $45.03, up $2.00 from last Friday’s close. Gold was up a less spectacular $68 at $3750 on the week, but with a firm undertone.
In this report, we look at what is currently driving gold and silver prices higher, and whether it will continue.
The chart below illustrates the paper market problem with the silver futures contract.
Having soared to over 184,000 Comex contracts by 17 June, open interest declined to 154,000 on 1 September. Meanwhile the price continued rising strongly to $40. A falling open interest and rising price can only happen in a vicious bear squeeze on the establishment shorts — principally the swap traders. But open interest stopped falling after 1 September, and is now rising because long speculators realise that precious metals are in a bull market and are joining the chase.
This is tightening the screws on the shorts, who must really be panicking. The technical chart shows a rare runaway situation, with no sign of stopping.
Additionally, investors are beginning to buy ETFs, putting further strains on physical liquidity, so higher lease rates and backwardations in London are likely to persist. And stand for deliveries on Comex, presumably going into hoarding hands amount to 10,842 tonnes so far this year, about 58% of global mine supply for nine months.
You read that right!
The problem is that instead of a rising silver price leading to profit-taking, it is likely to reaffirm the fundamental reasons for hoarding silver, which is to hedge failing fiat currencies. Buyers are still flocking to physical and appear likely to accelerate the pace of their buying in these extremely tight conditions.
This brings us to gold. Next up is the technical chart:
As is the case with silver, gold appears to be rising vertically. Again, investors have missed out on a major bull market and wondering whether they should buy. At the margin they are doing this by going down the ETF route. Furthermore, major US banks with trillions under management are now forecasting higher prices which are bound to put pressure on their investment managers who have next to no exposure to gold for their clients.
While the market for gold is more liquid than silver’s, a similar situation exists, with 900 tonnes stood for delivery on Comex nearly all of which presumably are being hoarded. At the same time ETF demand is beginning to take off, putting further strains on physical liquidity. And as the chart below shows, there are similarities with the silver squeeze.
China and Bretton Woods 2
As a backdrop to problems in western capital markets, China has effectively cornered the physical market, and it now emerges that she plans to link her currency with gold for intranational trade settlement purposes. This is why the Shanghai Gold Exchange is opening vaults in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, as well as planning for yuan-gold exchange facilities elsewhere in SE Asia. This is sending a clear signal to other SCO and BRICS nations as well as the Global South generally that in a post-dollar world they will need gold reserves of their own.
Consequently, there are central bank buyers for all available bullion, which with growing ETF demand is bound to keep the physical supply side very tight.
At some stage, this gathering rush into physical gold and silver could slacken. Joining the herd of buyers are likely to be paper speculators hoping for a quick profit, and they will be shaken out. But that won’t change the underlying bullion shortages, which look like worsening.
The authorities will hope that it won’t lead to systemic problems.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 242/ROBERT KIENTZ
5. COMMODITY REPORT SILVER
Silver: G7 Looks At Price Floors and Critical Mineral Hoarding
by VBL
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 12:55
G7 weighs critical mineral price floors, hoarding to curb China’s dominance
Authored by GoldFix ZH Edit
Group of Seven (G7) nations and the European Union are considering the use of price floors and new trade measures to boost rare earth production outside China, according to four people familiar with the talks. The measures could include subsidies, carbon-based tariffs on Chinese exports, and restrictions in public procurement tenders.
Reuters reports that the discussions come amid renewed supply chain concerns following China’s imposition of export controls on rare earths and related magnets earlier this year. The restrictions, initially a response to U.S. tariffs, disrupted European automakers and highlighted the bloc’s reliance on Chinese supply. Despite temporary licensing relief, bottlenecks remain and fresh shutdown risks are emerging.
Are You Ready for $144 Silver and $9.00 Copper?
Aug 26
Housekeeping: These commodities could be significantly higher or lower than the analog projects. Read this
Technical teams met in Chicago this month under the G7’s Critical Minerals Action Plan. “The heart of the conversation was whether to raise the bar on regulation of foreign investment in critical materials in order to avoid companies going to China,” one source told Reuters.
Options debated included local content requirements and geographical sourcing limits. Officials also discussed establishing government-backed price floors, a system already tested by the United States to incentivize domestic production.
The U.S. has signaled interest in broader coordinated measures with allies to counter potential Chinese price dumping in rare earth markets. As one source noted, divisions remain within the G7 on how directly to confront Beijing.
More GoldFix here
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.20 PTS OR 0.65%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 356.48 PTS OR 1.35%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 399.94PTS OR 0.87% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.17%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1344 OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1417/ Oil UP TO 65.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 69.41 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN DOWN IN TRADING AT 7.1344 AND WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1417 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1344
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1417
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 356.48 PTS OR 1.35%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 399.84 PTS OR 0.87%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.00 EURO RISES TO 1.1684 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.646//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.67…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.161 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7610 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.620 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.18
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.457
3j Gold at $3753.60 Silver at: 45.10 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 23 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 83.71
3m oil (WTI) into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.41/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.646% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.161 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7990 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9336 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.176 UP 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.754 UP 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.653 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.57 UP 10 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7420 UP 2 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.555 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.231 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.774 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 08:25 AM
US equity futures are flat as the market struggled for traction ahead of today’s core PCE report and as investors ponder the Fed’s next policy move following a raft of much stronger than expected US data. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are unchanged while Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% leaving stocks poised to extend their recent run of losses once the cash market reopens; in premarket trading Mag 7 names are mixed with NVDA (-0.8%) being the largest underperformer. Bond yields are also flat as is the USD which set for its biggest weekly advance since the start of August. Brent crude reversed an earlier drop and was trading at session highs not far from $70. Overnight, the biggest headline was a series of 232 tariffs announced by Trump, including 100% on branded pharma, 50% on housing products, 30% on furniture and 25% on heavy trucks, which sent truckmaker PACCAR up more than 5%, while shares in several European peers dropped. However, the details on the pharma tariff suggest easier conditions on the exemptions. WSJ also released an article suggesting the possible chips tariff from the White House to boost domestic production. Today’s economic data slate includes August personal income and spending, the PCE price index (8:30am), the final U. of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (10am), Kansas City Fed services activity and Bloomberg US economic survey (11am).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Meta Platforms -0.08%, Apple -0.9%, Tesla +0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%).
- Drugmakers are inching higher after President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose a 100% tariff on branded and patented drug imports and included exemptions for companies with US manufacturing. Citi says the news “lifts a significant overhang, as political uncertainties have kept investor interest at bay for most of this year.” Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) +1%, Merck (MRK) +1.2%.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) falls 6.2% as Goldman Sachs cuts its rating on the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company to sell.
- Concentrix (CNXC) slumps 21% after the call-center operator gave a fourth-quarter profit outlook below consensus estimates.
- Harrow (HROW) rises 1.6% after entering into an agreement to acquire Melt Pharmaceuticals Inc.
- Intel (INTC) climbs 4% and GlobalFoundries (GFS) gains 9% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce US reliance on chips made overseas.
- Paccar (PCAR) gains 6% as Trump sets a 25% tariff rate on heavy trucks made outside of the US.
- Wayfair
declines 2% after President Trump announced new industry-specific tariffs targeting heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered furniture.
After a $15 trillion rebound in global equities from April’s lows, traders now face a wall of uncertainty as tariff headlines return to unsettle markets and investors fret about inflated valuations for big tech companies. Fed policy, the upcoming earnings season, and the threat of a US government shutdown are also weighing on sentiment. Attention now turns to Friday’s inflation report and key monthly jobs data next week.
“Excitement on AI and Fed rate cuts turbo-charged the bull market and sent global and US equities to new highs,” Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note. “But with much of the Goldilocks narrative arguably in the price now, and positioning higher, investor fatigue is palpable as we hit an air pocket ahead of next week’s non-farm payrolls report and third-quarter earnings.”
There shouldn’t be any big surprises in today’s core PCE print: economists are predicting core PCE rose 2.9% y/y in August, the same pace as the previous month. Goldman estimates that “both personal income and personal spending increased by 0.4% in August. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.21% in August, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.92%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.25% in August, or increased 2.72% from a year earlier.“
Truckmaker PACCAR Inc. climbed more than 5% in premarket trading after President Donald Trump levied new tariffs on imports of heavy vehicles. Shares in several European peers dropped. However, market expectations for the real-world impact of a 100% product-based drug tariff remain low, given the large spending commitments already made by large-cap pharma over the next five years (AZN $50 bn, ROG $50 bn, GSK $30 bn, NOVN $23 bn, UCB $2 bn, SAN $20 bn). In some respects, this could be seen as a positive if there is a line in the sand over Section 232, particularly given the exemptions many products could see.
Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 index edged higher by 0.3% as investors look past President Trump’s latest tariff announcements (including a 100% duty on branded or patented pharmaceuticals starting Oct. 1), but is still set for back-to-back weekly declines for the first time since June. Daimler Truck Holdings AG and Volkswagen AG’s Traton SE declined, while Sweden’s Volvo AB, which manufactures trucks in the US, gained. Healthcare stocks underperformed following new US duties on pharmaceutical products. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Noba Bank jumps as much as 30% from its SEK70 offer price as the Swedish financial services firm’s shares began trading in Stockholm on Friday, opening at SEK84.9 and trading as high as SEK90.9
- EssilorLuxottica gains as much as 2.1% after its Stellest eyeglass lenses receive FDA marketing authorization for myopia correction. RBC highlights that this becomes the first and only spectacle lens of this type to be approved
- ArcelorMittal rises as much as 5% in Amsterdam trading, hitting the highest level since March. Traders cite a report in German business daily Handelsblatt that the EU Commission plans to impose tariffs in the next few weeks
- Gulf Keystone Petroleum rises as much as 8.4% on confirmation that oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq will resume soon
- InterContinental Hotels shares climb as much as 3.4% after the firm receives a double upgrade to overweight at JPMorgan, which highlights its earnings visibility “in times of RevPAR uncertainty”
- Most European Big Pharma stocks were broadly flat on Friday morning after US President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs, including a 100% duty on branded or patented pharmaceuticals starting Oct. 1
- Pennon Group falls as much as 2.3% as analysts say the water company’s guidance implies slightly slower FY earnings growth, with JPMorgan saying the update may result in some Ebitda downgrades
- Brunello Cucinelli shares extend Thursday’s plunge triggered by a report from Morpheus Research. The short seller alleged that the luxury company is misleading investors about its Russian business, claims the firm rejected
- Ceres falls as much as 16%, the most in over seven months, after the clean energy technology developer reported an operating loss of £18.7 million for the first half of the year
- Health care stocks did fall at the open but were quick to erase losses. Technology names underperform, as they did in Asia, after the Wall Street Journal reported the White House is weighing a plan to reduce semiconductor imports.
Asian stocks fell, with a key regional benchmark falling by the most in over three weeks, as chipmakers and Chinese tech shares pulled back after recent gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1%, with TSMC, Xiaomi and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Equities declined in South Korea, Hong Kong, mainland China, Taiwan and India. Health-care stocks slipped after US President Donald Trump unveiled 100% tariffs on branded or patented pharmaceutical products effective from Oct. 1. A gauge of Asian tech hardware stocks followed US peers lower amid valuation concerns after recent rallies. Korea’s Kospi fell more than 2%, the most in nearly two months, as foreigners sold chip shares. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by a similar measure, its worst decline since May. India’s Nifty 50 declined for a sixth-straight session, poised for its longest losing streak since March.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1% with muted price action across the G-10 complex. The dollar is on track for its best week since early August as a run of data showing resilience in the US economy forced traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s scope for cuts
In rates, treasuries are a touch stronger with yields richer on the day, although remain within a basis point of Thursday’s close, after trading in a narrow range overnight with modest selling flows in the long end. Treasury 10-year yields remain near Thursday’s closing levels, trading at around 4.17% with European bonds slightly firmer over the early London session. European government bonds edge higher.
In commodities, WTI crude futures are little changed near $65 a barrel. Gold is unchanged around $3,748/oz. Bitcoin is flat around $109,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes August personal income and spending, the PCE price index (8:30am) U. of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (10am), Kansas City Fed services activity and Bloomberg US economic survey (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin at 9am, delivering keynote remarks on the outlook for the economy, followed by a Q&A. Bowman at 1pm discussing the monetary policy with Q&A.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.3%
- CAC 40 +0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17%
- VIX +0.2 points at 16.95
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.85
- euro little changed at $1.1677
- WTI crude -0.2% at $64.87/barrel
Top Overnight News
- David Einhorn warned that the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure spending spree — by companies such as Apple and OpenAI — may lead to “tremendous” capital destruction, even if the technology proves transformative. BBG
- Tech giants are on a debt-fueled AI spending spree, raising roughly $157 billion so far this year — up about 70% from the same period last year. Some worry the hype may be overblown, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble. BBG
- The AI boom has ushered in one of the costliest building sprees in world history. Over the past three years, leading tech firms have committed more toward AI data centers, chips, and energy than it cost to build the interstate highway system over four decades, when adjusted for inflation. WSJ
- Trump announced that imported heavy trucks will be subject to a 25% levy, while kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities will be hit with a 50% charge. BBG
- Trump said there could be a government shutdown; he also called on the Fed to lower rates again, saying the US is the only country where strong numbers are reported and stocks still go down.
- The Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce dramatically the U.S.’s reliance on semiconductors made overseas, hoping to spur domestic manufacturing and reshape global supply chains. The policy’s goal is to have chip companies manufacture the same number of semiconductors in the U.S. as their customers import from overseas producers, with companies who don’t maintain a 1:1 ratio paying a tariff. WSJ
- European Big Pharma shares held steady following Donald Trump’s threat to slap a 100% tariff on branded or patented drugs unless they invest in the US. Many European firms already have factories under construction, Panmure Liberum said. BBG
- Indonesia’s central bank said it is intervening “boldly” in financial markets to stabilize the rupiah as it falls toward a record low. BBG
- Japan’s Tokyo CPI comes in cooler than anticipated, with headline at +2.5% (vs. +2.5% in Aug and below the Street’s +2.8% forecast) and core at +2.5% (down from +3% in Aug and below the consensus estimate of +2.9%) BBG
- Meta is set to face a charge sheet from the EU for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook: BBG
- Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX will be the main investors in TikTok US with a combined 45% ownership: CNBC
- Meta is reportedly in talks with Alphabet’s Google to integrate Gemini for enhanced ad-targeting capabilities, according to The Information.
- Punchbowl surmises, on the US shutdown situation, that “with just four days until government funding runs out, both Republicans and Democrats seem unnaturally comfortable with their positions in the fight.”
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless the company is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America, according to Truth Social.
- The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a new plan to dramatically reduce the US’ reliance on semiconductors made overseas, according to WSJ sources. Companies that do not maintain a 1:1 ratio over time would have to pay a tariff, sources said.
US-China
- US President Trump signed an executive order on TikTok, saying he had good talks with Chinese President Xi and that China is fully on board. He noted that American investors will take over the platform, with TikTok investors to include Ellison, Michael Dell, and Rupert Murdoch. Trump said he is satisfied with security concerns, praised Xi’s approval, and highlighted that Oracle (ORCL) is playing a very big part, according to Reuters.
- US Vice President Vance said TikTok will be valued at around USD 14bln, adding that Americans will control the algorithm and that he wants it to be fair, according to Reuters.
- In a sign of the fragile engagement, people close to the White House said Trump has not committed to going to Beijing, with a firm date for the visit contingent on China’s continued cooperation on issues ranging from trade to fentanyl, according to WSJ.
- US Deputy Secretary of State confirmed a meeting with her Chinese counterpart took place on Thursday evening, according to Reuters.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly lower after being subdued for a bulk of the session following a similar performance stateside after hot US data, with traders now looking ahead to the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Sentiment in the region was hampered by US President Trump announcing tariffs of 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and associated products, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on all heavy trucks made outside the US. ASX 200 eventually eked out mild gains, but the healthcare sector was the biggest laggard after Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on pharmaceuticals. Tech also weakened, though losses were cushioned by outperformance in metals and mining. Nikkei 225 was modestly softer but held above the 45,500 level after briefly dipping below, with pharma stocks weighing following Trump’s tariff announcement, and with little follow-through from softer-than-expected but prior-matching Tokyo CPI data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp largely conformed to regional losses, with little follow-through from Trump signing the executive order on TikTok, in which he also noted he had good talks with Chinese President Xi, although the Mainland later oscillated on either side of the unchanged mark. KOSPI was the regional laggard, heavily pressured by the tech sector and pharma, whilst reports also suggested South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap. Nifty 50 was also subdued with the nation’s pharma stocks pressured after President Trump’s tariff announcement.
Top Asian News
- Japanese government revised July real wages to -0.2% vs preliminary estimate of +0.5%, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he will not comment on FX levels, according to Reuters.
- India’s government has drafted a proposal to relax foreign investment rules for e-commerce exports, according to Reuters.
- PBoC injected CNY 165.8bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40%; injected CNY 400bln via 14-day reverse repo.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are modestly firmer across the board and have traded with a slight upward bias throughout the morning. The region has seemingly shrugged off the latest barrage of tariff levies announced by Trump, but with some analysts suggesting that the pharma-specific ones are not as bad as feared. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of sectors marginally lower. Most of the focus this morning has been on the latest Trump tariffs, where he announced 100% tariffs on Pharma, 50% on kitchen cabinets, and 25% on heavy trucks.”; for the latter, Daimler Truck (-2.5%) moves lower, whilst Volvo (+3%) remains in the green. Bernstein writes that Daimler Truck could be most affected by these tariffs, given its high exposure to the US; analysts add that Paccar (+5% pre-market) stands to benefit the most. Delving into the pharma tariffs, some analysts have suggested the announcement may actually provide some relief for traders; focus is on the caveat that a Co. will not be subject to the tariff rate if they are building a pharma plant in the US. So, whilst the sector was initially underperforming, some heavyweights have managed to climb out of negative territory – namely those which have already announced plans for plants in the US; Roche (+0.2%), AstraZeneca (U/C). Jefferies writes that “overall, we think this is a win for Pharma and shouldn’t have a material impact”. In US pre-market trade, the likes of Eli Lilly (+1.7%) and Viking (+1.4%) both move higher.
Top European News
- Italy’s Economy Minister said the digital euro plan will take two years to be implemented, according to Reuters.
- Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) cut output and paused production at its German EV plants, according to Bloomberg.
- French PM Lecornu’s interview is now expected to be published within Saturday’s edition of Le Parisien, via Politico; delayed due to an editorial strike.
- ECB SCE: 1yr and 5yr inflation forecasts rise. Inflation: 1yr: 2.8% (prev. 2.6%) 3yr: 2.5% (prev. 2.5%). 5yr: 2.2% (prev. 2.1%) Growth 1yr: -1.2% (prev. -1.2%).
FX
- After two sessions of solid gains for DXY, the rally has paused for breath. Whilst the price action on Wednesday left many desks scratching their heads, yesterday’s upside was clearly driven by US data; Q2 GDP, weekly claims and durables. ING adds that the surge in the USD has likely also been assisted by positioning. The next potential inflection point for the USD comes via today’s PCE data with Y/Y core PCE expected to hold steady at 2.9% (a view backed by Powell earlier this week) and the M/M rate seen declining to 0.2% from 0.3%. Tariff headlines have re-emerged over the past 24 hours with focus on pharma, furniture and several other sectors. However, the vague language around the pharma actions has seen equity indices take the news in their stride. DXY has ventured as high as 98.53 but has been unable to test Thursday’s best at 98.60.
- EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD after a couple of bruising sessions, which have seen the pair pull back from a 1.1820 peak on Wednesday to a 1.1645 low yesterday. Price action has largely been driven by the USD rather than anything EUR-specific. This morning’s ECB SCE saw little follow-through into EUR, with the report seeing a 20bps pick-up in the 1yr inflation forecast to 2.8% and the 5yr projection rise to 2.2% from 2.1%. EUR/USD inched above its 50DMA at 1.1679.
- JPY is flat vs. the USD after a recent run of losses, which have seen USD/JPY rise from a 147.51 base on Wednesday to a current session peak @ 149.95, taking out its 50 and 200DMAs in the process. Price action for the pair has largely been dictated by interest rate differentials as a combination of cautious Fed speak and strong US data has supported US yields. From the Japanese side of the equation, soft Tokyo inflation metrics overnight have also added to the trend, with the pair now eyeing a potential test of 150 to the upside.
- GBP is attempting to atone for recent losses vs. the USD, which have seen Cable slip from a WTD peak on Tuesday at 1.3537. This week has been a quiet one from a UK perspective, aside from a disappointing flash PMI report on Tuesday, which was hampered by ongoing angst surrounding the upcoming UK budget on November 26th.
- Antipodeans are broadly steady vs. the USD with both pairs pausing after the prior day’s heavy selling. Newsflow and data were light during APAC hours, though a pullback in copper kept AUD capped.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 71152 .vs exp. 7.1439 (Prev. 7.1118)
Fixed Income
- USTs are in a very thin 112-07 to 112-13+ band awaiting a packed US docket. Focus lies on US PCE where headline is seen at 0.3% (prev. 0.2%) M/M with the core at 0.2% (prev. 0.3%) M/M, following PPI and CPI desks looked for the core figure between 0.28-0.35%. Fed speak thereafter from Barkin (2027) and Bowman (voter), followed by the latest AtlantaFed GDP Now, at 3.3% for Q3 as of September 17th.
- Bunds are contained as we look to US data and Fed speak (see USTs). Bunds spent the morning towards lows of 127.89 before picking up modestly as the general risk tone came off initial highs. Action that has taken the benchmark to a 128.13 peak, with gains of around 10 ticks at best. No move to the latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. The one- and five-year inflation views were increased while the three-year horizon was maintained.
- Gilts are flat. UK specifics are very light so far. Domestic politics is increasing in focus as PM Starmer comes under increasing pressure from figures within the broader Labour Party. On this, next week’s party conference will draw significant attention, but before that at 11:00BST, Starmer will be speaking on “patriotic renewal”. That aside, Gilts likely to conform to the lead from USTs given the busy afternoon of US events. As it stands, the benchmark is near enough unchanged in 90.26-52 confines.
- Italy sells EUR 6bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.85% 2031, 3.60% 2035 BTP, EUR vs exp. EUR 1-1.25bln 4.00% 2035 BTP Green & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 2034 CCTeu.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent remained balanced after another day of gains, making highs at USD 65.34/bbl and USD 69.68/bbl respectively on Thursday. This morning, the benchmarks surpassed those peaks by c. USD 0.05/bbl early in the session before falling back into yesterday’s range. As it stands, WTI and Brent are trading near session lows of USD 64.99/bbl and USD 69.37/bbl respectively. Newsflow very light this morning.
- Spot gold continues to trade rangebound amid recent dollar strength and into a packed US agenda, currently within USD 3,734-3,755/oz parameters. A consolidation just off its USD 3791/oz ATH, after an aggressive move which started at the end of August with XAU is up nearly 13% since then. Markets are awaiting US Core PCE later today, the Fed’s key measure of inflation.
- 3M LME copper is a little lower today. After making a high at USD 10.48K/t, copper prices fell back and closed the day down 0.5% in Thursday’s session. Action on Thursday was initially a continuation of the Grasberg-induced gains, before being added to by updates from China. On Grasberg, the Indonesian Mining Minister said production at Freeport’s mine has not resumed following disruption earlier in the week. As a reminder, that site accounts for around 3% of global supply.
- Iraq is in talks with Vitol to handle crude oil sales once Kurdish pipeline restarts, according to Bloomberg.
- A force majeure notice was issued at three French LNG terminals due to a power sector strike; strike blocking ship reception at all terminals, says Reuters citing Elengy.
- Indonesia Mining Minister says production at Freeport (FCX) has not resumed, stoppage affects output and revenue; spoke with Freeport about extending the mining permit to past 2041.
Geopolitics: Nato
- European officials privately told Russia they are ready to shoot down jets and view Russia’s Estonia incursion as deliberate, according to Bloomberg.
- French President Macron said France stands ready to support Denmark in assessing the situation and contributing to the security of Danish airspace, according to X.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said Ukraine has a shot at getting territory back and that Russia is doing poorly, adding that he is dissatisfied with what Russian President Putin is doing, according to Reuters.
- IAEA said a drone was downed and detonated around 800 metres from the perimeter of Ukraine’s South nuclear power plant overnight, noting that 22 UAVs were observed late last night and this morning and that its team heard gunfire and explosions, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he believes Turkey will halt purchases of Russian oil, adding that it is harder for Hungary and Slovakia as they are landlocked with one pipeline, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said he had good talks on Gaza and really good talks with Israeli PM Netanyahu, adding that a hostage deal could happen soon, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, according to Reuters.
- Iranian Foreign Minister says agreement with IAEA will be valid as long as there is no ‘hostile action taken against Iran’, including re-instatement of UN sanctions.
- Turkeys’ Erdogan says he discussed with US President Trump steps to improve defence cooperation, supports Trump’s vision of global and lasting peace in Gaza and Palestine.
Geopolitics: Other
- US President Trump said he had good talks with Turkish President Erdogan and that the meeting was conclusive on many things, according to Reuters.
- South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
- Iran and Russia have come to a USD 25bln agreement to construct four nuclear power plants in Iran, via IRNA.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30 am: Aug Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30 am: Aug Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Aug PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: Aug PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
- 8:30 am: Aug Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Aug Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
- 10:00 am: Sep F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55.4, prior 55.4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets continued to struggle yesterday, with a broad-based selloff that saw the S&P 500 (-0.50%) post a third consecutive decline. The main catalyst was a strong batch of US data, which meant investors dialled back their expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts, and pushed front-end Treasury yields higher. So that meant rate-sensitive sectors like tech took a hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.95%) dragging down the broader equity market. Moreover, that bond selloff carried over into Europe, and UK gilts underperformed as investor doubts grew about the country’s fiscal position, amidst calls from some within the governing Labour Party for PM Starmer to ease the fiscal rules. And tariffs were back in the spotlight too, as President Trump announced further sectoral tariffs, including on pharmaceutical products. So lots of themes for investors to digest.
That US data was the big market driver yesterday, as it painted a more resilient economic picture than previously thought, which undercut some of the calls for faster rate cuts. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to just 218k in the week ending September 20 (vs. 233k expected), which was the lowest level since July, and pushed back against fears of a labour market slowdown. Moreover, quite a bit of the Q2 data got revised in a hawkish direction, with GDP growth revised up half a point to an annualised +3.8% rate. And core PCE inflation was also revised up a tenth to +2.6%. So again at the margins, that suggested that the US economy had been pretty resilient after Liberation Day. Indeed, the so-called “core GDP” measure of real final sales to private domestic purchasers was revised up a full point to a +2.9% rate.
However, this resilient data also meant investors priced out the likelihood of rapid rate cuts over the months ahead. In fact, only 39bps of cuts are priced in at the remaining two meetings this year, down -3.9bps on the day. So that’s almost half way between 25bps and 50bps, implying that markets think it’s almost a toss-up as to whether we get one or two more cuts this year. In turn, that led to a selloff in US Treasuries, with front-end yields seeing the biggest moves. So the 2yr yield (+5.1bps) moved up to 3.66%, and the 10yr yield (+2.3bps) rose to 4.17%.
Against that backdrop, we did hear from several Fed speakers yesterday, although they consistently stuck to their recent messages in each case. So Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sounded cautious on future cuts, saying that he was “a little uneasy with too much front-loading”. And Kansas Fed President Schmid continued to lean on the hawkish side, saying “inflation remains too high while the labor market, though cooling, still remains largely in balance”. But Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman was more dovish, and she said that recent data had shown “we have a more fragile labour market than we were expecting to see”. Otherwise, Governor Miran, who dissented in favour of a larger 50bp cut at last week’s meeting, said that “I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a result ahead of time, rather than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur”.
With investors pricing in slower rate cuts, that meant equities lost further momentum yesterday, and the S&P 500 (-0.50%) posted a third consecutive decline for the first time in a month. The decline was a broad-based one, and there were bigger falls for the Magnificent 7 (-0.95%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.98%). Sentiment also hasn’t been helped by the prospect of a government shutdown next week, as funding is due to expire on September 30, and there’s still no sign of a breakthrough between Republicans and Democrats. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.66%) also fell back to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks.
Elsewhere in Europe, UK gilts were back in the spotlight yesterday, with the 10yr yield (+8.7bps) posting the biggest increase in the G7 yesterday. That came amidst growing speculation around the country’s fiscal position, particularly after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said in an interview that “We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond market.” And in another interview, he called for £40bn of additional borrowing to build council houses. Although Burnham isn’t an MP, he’s considered a potential challenger to PM Starmer as Labour leader, so the headlines added to market speculation that the direction of travel would be towards higher borrowing in the years ahead, particularly if Starmer were replaced as leader. Indeed, the UK was the only G7 country yesterday where the 2s30s yield curve steepened, and the long end of the curve has usually been much more sensitive to fiscal concerns.
A similar pattern was evident across Europe yesterday, albeit to a lesser extent. Indeed, France’s 10yr yields (+3.3bps) closed at a post-2011 of 3.60%, which hasn’t been seen since the height of the Euro crisis. That left the Franco-German 10yr spread at 83bps, which is its highest closing level since January, with new PM Lecornu still trying to pass a budget that cuts the deficit, in a National Assembly fractured between different political groups. Otherwise, yields on 10yr bunds (+2.6bps) and OATs (+4.3bps) also moved higher, whilst the 2yr German yield (+1.7bps) got back to its level on Liberation Day again, closing at 2.03%.
Overnight, tariffs have come back into the headlines, as President Trump announced a new set of sectoral tariffs. So from this Wednesday October 1, the US will impose a 100% rate on branded or patented pharmaceutical products, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks. That meant investors got a fresh reminder about the trade war, and the impact has already been evident in Asian markets. For instance, pharmaceutical companies have been among the worst performers this morning in Japan’s Nikkei (-0.46%), with losses for Chugai Pharmaceutical (-5.12%) and Sumitomo Pharma (-5.21%).
Speaking of Japan, the Tokyo CPI print for September came out overnight, which showed a downside surprise of +2.5% in the headline CPI (vs. +2.8% expected). However, that was partly because the Tokyo government expanded the entitlement for free childcare, and that was a policy specific to Tokyo that won’t apply nationwide. So Japanese government bond yields have seen little change this morning, with the 10yr yield up +0.2bps. Elsewhere in Asia, equities have also lost ground, including the Hang Seng (-0.65%), the CSI 300 (-0.42%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.18%), whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.77%) is currently on track for its worst day in nearly two months. But looking forward, US equity futures have held broadly steady, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.02%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US PCE inflation for August, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Otherwise, there’s Canada’s GDP report for July, and the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for August. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone and Escriva, along with the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman
2b) European opening report
President Trump announces new tariffs on trucks, pharma and kitchen cabinets, USD lower into PCE – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 05:53 AM
- US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, 50% tariffs on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, a 30% tariff on Upholstered Furniture, and a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world.
- European bourses seemingly shrug off Trump’s latest barrage of tariffs; US equity futures trade tentatively into US PCE.
- USD rally pauses for breath ahead of PCE; EUR unmoved by ECB Survey of Consumer Expectations, which saw the 1- and 5-year forecasts rise.
- Crude is slightly lower in very quiet trade, XAU/USTs are rangebound awaiting data.
- Looking ahead, US PCE (Aug), US University of Michigan Final (Sep), Fed’s Barkin, Bowman.
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TRADE/TARIFFS
FRESH TARIFFS
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless the company is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America, according to Truth Social.
- The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a new plan to dramatically reduce the US’ reliance on semiconductors made overseas, according to WSJ sources. Companies that do not maintain a 1:1 ratio over time would have to pay a tariff, sources said.
US-CHINA
- US President Trump signed an executive order on TikTok, saying he had good talks with Chinese President Xi and that China is fully on board. He noted that American investors will take over the platform, with TikTok investors to include Ellison, Michael Dell, and Rupert Murdoch. Trump said he is satisfied with security concerns, praised Xi’s approval, and highlighted that Oracle (ORCL) is playing a very big part, according to Reuters.
- US Vice President Vance said TikTok will be valued at around USD 14bln, adding that Americans will control the algorithm and that he wants it to be fair, according to Reuters.
- In a sign of the fragile engagement, people close to the White House said Trump has not committed to going to Beijing, with a firm date for the visit contingent on China’s continued cooperation on issues ranging from trade to fentanyl, according to WSJ.
- US Deputy Secretary of State confirmed a meeting with her Chinese counterpart took place on Thursday evening, according to Reuters.
OTHERS
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato announced the establishment of a facility at JBIC for the Japan and US-bound USD 550bln investment package, according to Reuters.
- Japan’s Tariff Negotiator Akazawa said Japan and the US agreed that US semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs on Japan will not exceed those applied to other countries, adding that both sides will continue to evaluate how the new tariffs relate to the existing US-Japan agreement, according to Reuters.
- Turkey’s Erdogan says steps to facilitate trade, including revising tariffs, were discussed with US President Trump.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are modestly firmer across the board and have traded with a slight upward bias throughout the morning. The region has seemingly shrugged off the latest barrage of tariff levies announced by Trump, but with some analysts suggesting that the pharma-specific ones are not as bad as feared.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of sectors marginally lower. Most of the focus this morning has been on the latest Trump tariffs, where he announced 100% tariffs on Pharma, 50% on kitchen cabinets, and 25% on heavy trucks.”; for the latter, Daimler Truck (-2.5%) moves lower, whilst Volvo (+3%) remains in the green. Bernstein writes that Daimler Truck could be most affected by these tariffs, given its high exposure to the US; analysts add that Paccar (+5% pre-market) stands to benefit the most.
- Delving into the pharma tariffs, some analysts have suggested the announcement may actually provide some relief for traders; focus is on the caveat that a Co. will not be subject to the tariff rate if they are building a pharma plant in the US. So, whilst the sector was initially underperforming, some heavyweights have managed to climb out of negative territory – namely those which have already announced plans for plants in the US; Roche (+0.2%), AstraZeneca (U/C). Jefferies writes that “overall, we think this is a win for Pharma and shouldn’t have a material impact”. In US pre-market trade, the likes of Eli Lilly (+1.7%) and Viking (+1.4%) both move higher.
- US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with price action tentative into US PCE.
- Microsoft (MSFT) named top pick at Morgan Stanley; price target raised to USD 625 from USD 582
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- After two sessions of solid gains for DXY, the rally has paused for breath. Whilst the price action on Wednesday left many desks scratching their heads, yesterday’s upside was clearly driven by US data; Q2 GDP, weekly claims and durables. ING adds that the surge in the USD has likely also been assisted by positioning. The next potential inflection point for the USD comes via today’s PCE data with Y/Y core PCE expected to hold steady at 2.9% (a view backed by Powell earlier this week) and the M/M rate seen declining to 0.2% from 0.3%. Tariff headlines have re-emerged over the past 24 hours with focus on pharma, furniture and several other sectors. However, the vague language around the pharma actions has seen equity indices take the news in their stride. DXY has ventured as high as 98.53 but has been unable to test Thursday’s best at 98.60.
- EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD after a couple of bruising sessions, which have seen the pair pull back from a 1.1820 peak on Wednesday to a 1.1645 low yesterday. Price action has largely been driven by the USD rather than anything EUR-specific. This morning’s ECB SCE saw little follow-through into EUR, with the report seeing a 20bps pick-up in the 1yr inflation forecast to 2.8% and the 5yr projection rise to 2.2% from 2.1%. EUR/USD inched above its 50DMA at 1.1679.
- JPY is flat vs. the USD after a recent run of losses, which have seen USD/JPY rise from a 147.51 base on Wednesday to a current session peak @ 149.95, taking out its 50 and 200DMAs in the process. Price action for the pair has largely been dictated by interest rate differentials as a combination of cautious Fed speak and strong US data has supported US yields. From the Japanese side of the equation, soft Tokyo inflation metrics overnight have also added to the trend, with the pair now eyeing a potential test of 150 to the upside.
- GBP is attempting to atone for recent losses vs. the USD, which have seen Cable slip from a WTD peak on Tuesday at 1.3537. This week has been a quiet one from a UK perspective, aside from a disappointing flash PMI report on Tuesday, which was hampered by ongoing angst surrounding the upcoming UK budget on November 26th.
- Antipodeans are broadly steady vs. the USD with both pairs pausing after the prior day’s heavy selling. Newsflow and data were light during APAC hours, though a pullback in copper kept AUD capped.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 71152 .vs exp. 7.1439 (Prev. 7.1118)
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are in a very thin 112-07 to 112-13+ band awaiting a packed US docket. Focus lies on US PCE where headline is seen at 0.3% (prev. 0.2%) M/M with the core at 0.2% (prev. 0.3%) M/M, following PPI and CPI desks looked for the core figure between 0.28-0.35%. Fed speak thereafter from Barkin (2027) and Bowman (voter), followed by the latest AtlantaFed GDP Now, at 3.3% for Q3 as of September 17th.
- Bunds are contained as we look to US data and Fed speak (see USTs). Bunds spent the morning towards lows of 127.89 before picking up modestly as the general risk tone came off initial highs. Action that has taken the benchmark to a 128.13 peak, with gains of around 10 ticks at best. No move to the latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. The one- and five-year inflation views were increased while the three-year horizon was maintained.
- Gilts are flat. UK specifics are very light so far. Domestic politics is increasing in focus as PM Starmer comes under increasing pressure from figures within the broader Labour Party. On this, next week’s party conference will draw significant attention, but before that at 11:00BST, Starmer will be speaking on “patriotic renewal”. That aside, Gilts likely to conform to the lead from USTs given the busy afternoon of US events. As it stands, the benchmark is near enough unchanged in 90.26-52 confines.
- Italy sells EUR 6bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.85% 2031, 3.60% 2035 BTP, EUR vs exp. EUR 1-1.25bln 4.00% 2035 BTP Green & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 2034 CCTeu.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent remained balanced after another day of gains, making highs at USD 65.34/bbl and USD 69.68/bbl respectively on Thursday. This morning, the benchmarks surpassed those peaks by c. USD 0.05/bbl early in the session before falling back into yesterday’s range. As it stands, WTI and Brent are trading near session lows of USD 64.99/bbl and USD 69.37/bbl respectively. Newsflow very light this morning.
- Spot gold continues to trade rangebound amid recent dollar strength and into a packed US agenda, currently within USD 3,734-3,755/oz parameters. A consolidation just off its USD 3791/oz ATH, after an aggressive move which started at the end of August with XAU is up nearly 13% since then. Markets are awaiting US Core PCE later today, the Fed’s key measure of inflation.
- 3M LME copper is a little lower today. After making a high at USD 10.48K/t, copper prices fell back and closed the day down 0.5% in Thursday’s session. Action on Thursday was initially a continuation of the Grasberg-induced gains, before being added to by updates from China. On Grasberg, the Indonesian Mining Minister said production at Freeport’s mine has not resumed following disruption earlier in the week. As a reminder, that site accounts for around 3% of global supply.
- Iraq is in talks with Vitol to handle crude oil sales once Kurdish pipeline restarts, according to Bloomberg.
- A force majeure notice was issued at three French LNG terminals due to a power sector strike; strike blocking ship reception at all terminals, says Reuters citing Elengy.
- Indonesia Mining Minister says production at Freeport (FCX) has not resumed, stoppage affects output and revenue; spoke with Freeport about extending the mining permit to past 2041.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- Italian Mfg Business Confidence (Sep) 87.3 vs. Exp. 87.5 (Prev. 87.4, Rev. 87.3); Italian Consumer Confidence (Sep) 96.8 vs. Exp. 96.5 (Prev. 96.2)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Italy’s Economy Minister said the digital euro plan will take two years to be implemented, according to Reuters.
- Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) cut output and paused production at its German EV plants, according to Bloomberg.
- French PM Lecornu’s interview is now expected to be published within Saturday’s edition of Le Parisien, via Politico; delayed due to an editorial strike.
- ECB SCE: 1yr and 5yr inflation forecasts rise. Inflation: 1yr: 2.8% (prev. 2.6%) 3yr: 2.5% (prev. 2.5%). 5yr: 2.2% (prev. 2.1%) Growth 1yr: -1.2% (prev. -1.2%).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump called on the Fed to lower rates again, saying the US is the only country where strong numbers are reported and stocks still go down.
- US President Trump said there could be a government shutdown.
- Meta (META) is reportedly set to face a charge sheet from the EU for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook, according to Bloomberg.
- Oracle (ORCL), Silver Lake, and MGX will be the main investors in TikTok US with a combined 45% ownership, according to CNBC’s Faber, citing sources.
- Meta (META) is reportedly in talks with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) to integrate Gemini for enhanced ad-targeting capabilities, according to The Information.
- Punchbowl surmises, on the US shutdown situation, that “with just four days until government funding runs out, both Republicans and Democrats seem unnaturally comfortable with their positions in the fight.”
GEOPOLITICS
NATO
- European officials privately told Russia they are ready to shoot down jets and view Russia’s Estonia incursion as deliberate, according to Bloomberg.
- French President Macron said France stands ready to support Denmark in assessing the situation and contributing to the security of Danish airspace, according to X.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Ukraine has a shot at getting territory back and that Russia is doing poorly, adding that he is dissatisfied with what Russian President Putin is doing, according to Reuters.
- IAEA said a drone was downed and detonated around 800 metres from the perimeter of Ukraine’s South nuclear power plant overnight, noting that 22 UAVs were observed late last night and this morning and that its team heard gunfire and explosions, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he believes Turkey will halt purchases of Russian oil, adding that it is harder for Hungary and Slovakia as they are landlocked with one pipeline, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he had good talks on Gaza and really good talks with Israeli PM Netanyahu, adding that a hostage deal could happen soon, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, according to Reuters.
- Iranian Foreign Minister says agreement with IAEA will be valid as long as there is no ‘hostile action taken against Iran’, including re-instatement of UN sanctions.
- Turkeys’ Erdogan says he discussed with US President Trump steps to improve defence cooperation, supports Trump’s vision of global and lasting peace in Gaza and Palestine.
OTHERS
- US President Trump said he had good talks with Turkish President Erdogan and that the meeting was conclusive on many things, according to Reuters.
- South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
- Iran and Russia have come to a USD 25bln agreement to construct four nuclear power plants in Iran, via IRNA.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on the backfoot today and trades shy of the USD 110k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mostly lower after being subdued for a bulk of the session following a similar performance stateside after hot US data, with traders now looking ahead to the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Sentiment in the region was hampered by US President Trump announcing tariffs of 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and associated products, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on all heavy trucks made outside the US.
- ASX 200 eventually eked out mild gains, but the healthcare sector was the biggest laggard after Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on pharmaceuticals. Tech also weakened, though losses were cushioned by outperformance in metals and mining.
- Nikkei 225 was modestly softer but held above the 45,500 level after briefly dipping below, with pharma stocks weighing following Trump’s tariff announcement, and with little follow-through from softer-than-expected but prior-matching Tokyo CPI data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp largely conformed to regional losses, with little follow-through from Trump signing the executive order on TikTok, in which he also noted he had good talks with Chinese President Xi, although the Mainland later oscillated on either side of the unchanged mark.
- KOSPI was the regional laggard, heavily pressured by the tech sector and pharma, whilst reports also suggested South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
- Nifty 50 was also subdued with the nation’s pharma stocks pressured after President Trump’s tariff announcement.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese government revised July real wages to -0.2% vs preliminary estimate of +0.5%, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he will not comment on FX levels, according to Reuters.
- India’s government has drafted a proposal to relax foreign investment rules for e-commerce exports, according to Reuters.
- PBoC injected CNY 165.8bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40%; injected CNY 400bln via 14-day reverse repo.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY (Sep) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.5%)
- Japanese CPI, Overall Tokyo (Sep) 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.5%)
- New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence 94.6 (prev. 93.2)
2c/ Asian Report
Trump announces new tariffs on pharma, heavy trucks and kitchen cabinets – Newsquawk European Opening News
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 01:33 AM
- US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, 50% tariffs on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, a 30% tariff on Upholstered Furniture, and a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world.
- US President Trump signed an executive order on TikTok, saying he had good talks with Chinese President Xi and that China is fully on board.
- EU plans to impose tariffs of 25–50% on Chinese steel and related products, according to Reuters, citing Handelsblatt.
- APAC stocks traded mostly lower after being subdued for a bulk of the session following a similar performance stateside.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after cash closed -0.3% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE (Aug), US University of Michigan Final (Sep), ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Fed’s Barkin, Bowman, and supply from Italy.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished lower after hotter-than-expected Q2 data fuelled concerns about the Fed’s scope to cut rates in the current environment.
- Equity sectors were broadly weaker outside of Energy, with Health, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials leading the declines, while Energy outperformed on rotation flows.
- SPX -0.50% at 6,605, NDX -0.43% at 24,397, DJI -0.38% at 45,947, RUT -0.98% at 2,411
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TRADE/TARIFFS
FRESH TARIFFS
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, according to Truth Social.
- US President Trump said that as of October 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless the company is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America, according to Truth Social.
- The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a new plan to dramatically reduce the US’ reliance on semiconductors made overseas, according to WSJ sources. Companies that do not maintain a 1:1 ratio over time would have to pay a tariff, sources said.
US-CHINA
- US President Trump signed an executive order on TikTok, saying he had good talks with Chinese President Xi and that China is fully on board. He noted that American investors will take over the platform, with TikTok investors to include Ellison, Michael Dell, and Rupert Murdoch. Trump said he is satisfied with security concerns, praised Xi’s approval, and highlighted that Oracle (ORCL) is playing a very big part, according to Reuters.
- US Vice President Vance said TikTok will be valued at around USD 14bln, adding that Americans will control the algorithm and that he wants it to be fair, according to Reuters.
- In a sign of the fragile engagement, people close to the White House said Trump has not committed to going to Beijing, with a firm date for the visit contingent on China’s continued cooperation on issues ranging from trade to fentanyl, according to WSJ.
- US Deputy Secretary of State confirmed a meeting with her Chinese counterpart took place on Thursday evening, according to Reuters.
OTHERS
- EU plans to impose tariffs of 25–50% on Chinese steel and related products, according to Reuters citing Handelsblatt.
- US President Trump said he will take tariff money and give it to US farmers, adding that farmer aid will be distributed until tariffs begin to benefit them, according to Reuters.
- US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said the DoJ antitrust division will look at high fertiliser and seed costs, adding that the USDA is developing a plan to revitalise the beef industry but will not offer payments to producers, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato announced the establishment of a facility at JBIC for the Japan and US-bound USD 550bln investment package, according to Reuters.
- Japan’s Tariff Negotiator Akazawa said Japan and the US agreed that US semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs on Japan will not exceed those applied to other countries, adding that both sides will continue to evaluate how the new tariffs relate to the existing US-Japan agreement, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said frontloading rate cuts before it is clear inflation will not be persistent runs the risk of a mistake, noting that the labour market is largely stable with some mild cooling and that the pace of rate cuts will largely be determined by the behaviour of inflation. He said he remains concerned about inflation and wants to be vigilant, adding that Fed policy has been mildly and moderately restrictive, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the Fed should move to target the tri-party general collateral rate and that the time has arrived to modernise the interest rate target system. She noted the Fed funds market still works but is increasingly fragile, and that the shift to secured markets means the Fed needs to update its rate target system, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said the inflation impact of tariffs has not been as large as forecast but has weighed more heavily on the labour market. Noted that rates remain modestly restrictive, a little more rate cutting will be needed over time, but warned against going all the way to neutral as it would be too risky, the US economy is in okay shape, and bringing Fed interest rates down toward the neutral 3% level will not solve the housing affordability crisis. Emphasized the need to monitor both inflation and labour market weakness, pointing to difficulties faced by new college graduates in getting hired, low job-finding rates, and the length of time it takes to find a job as yellow flags for the job market, according to Reuters.
- Fed Governor Cook filed a response at the US Supreme Court to US President Trump’s bid to fire her.
- Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said the US economy is doing well and that he thinks the Fed will cut once more this year, twice at most, according to CNBC.
- Goldman Sachs President said consumer spending remains healthy, though there is some stress in the lower-income bracket, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump called on the Fed to lower rates again, saying the US is the only country where strong numbers are reported and stocks still go down.
- US President Trump said there could be a government shutdown.
NOTABLE US EQUITY NEWS
- Meta (META) is reportedly set to face a charge sheet from the EU for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook, according to Bloomberg.
- Oracle (ORCL), Silver Lake, and MGX will be the main investors in TikTok US with a combined 45% ownership, according to CNBC’s Faber, citing sources.
- Intel (INTC) has approached TSMC (TSM) about investments or manufacturing partnerships, WSJ reports.
- Meta (META) is reportedly in talks with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) to integrate Gemini for enhanced ad-targeting capabilities, according to The Information.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mostly lower after being subdued for a bulk of the session following a similar performance stateside after hot US data, with traders now looking ahead to the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Sentiment in the region was hampered by US President Trump announcing tariffs of 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and associated products, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on all heavy trucks made outside the US.
- ASX 200 eventually eked out mild gains, but the healthcare sector was the biggest laggard after Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on pharmaceuticals. Tech also weakened, though losses were cushioned by outperformance in metals and mining.
- Nikkei 225 was modestly softer but held above the 45,500 level after briefly dipping below, with pharma stocks weighing following Trump’s tariff announcement, and with little follow-through from softer-than-expected but prior-matching Tokyo CPI data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp largely conformed to regional losses, with little follow-through from Trump signing the executive order on TikTok, in which he also noted he had good talks with Chinese President Xi, although the Mainland later oscillated on either side of the unchanged mark.
- KOSPI was the regional laggard, heavily pressured by the tech sector and pharma, whilst reports also suggested South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
- Nifty 50 was also subdued with the nation’s pharma stocks pressured after President Trump’s tariff announcement.
- US equity futures traded flat to mixed, with upside capped by Trump’s latest tariff announcements, while traders looked ahead to the PCE data. As a reminder, on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell said total PCE prices are seen rising 2.7% Y/Y (vs. 2.6% in July); Core PCE is expected to have increased 2.9% Y/Y, driven by goods price rises mainly reflecting tariffs.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after cash closed -0.3% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY took a breather before tilting lower after another session of strong gains on Thursday following hot US data, with traders now bracing for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. As a reminder, Fed Chair Powell said total PCE prices are seen rising 2.7% Y/Y (vs. 2.6% in July); Core PCE is expected to have increased 2.9% Y/Y, driven by goods price rises mainly reflecting tariffs.
- EUR/USD moved in tandem with the dollar after being dragged lower before finding support just under 1.1650 on Thursday, with the pair eventually testing its 50DMA at 1.1679 to the upside.
- GBP/USD traded sideways amid quiet newsflow with resistance around the 1.3350 mark after retreating from yesterday’s peak above 1.3450.
- USD/JPY saw relatively uneventful trade after nearly surging to 150.00 yesterday, with only modest and fleeting JPY weakness after softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, though the pricing tilted slightly more hawkishly as the data matched the prior reading, signalling sticky inflation.
- Antipodeans showed little movement as both pairs paused after the prior day’s heavy selling. Newsflow and data were light during APAC hours, though a pullback in copper kept AUD capped.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 71152 .vs exp. 7.1439 (Prev. 7.1118)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures paused after Thursday’s selloff on the back of hot US data, with traders digesting President Trump’s latest tariff announcement while awaiting the US PCE data.
- Bund futures also took a breather, with the contract back above the 128.00 handle after briefly dipping below yesterday, as traders looked ahead to commentary from ECB’s Cipollone and Lagarde alongside the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey.
- 10yr JGB futures conformed to the broader fixed income complex and were underpinned by the softer-than-expected Japanese Tokyo CPI data.
- US sold USD 44bln of 7yr notes; tail 0.6bps. High Yield: 3.953% (prev. 3.925%, six-auction average 4.098%). WI: 3.947%. Tail: 0.6bps (prev. 0.3bps, six-auction avg. -0.7bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.40x (prev. 2.49x, six-auction avg. 2.6x). Dealers: 12% (prev. 9.8%, six-auction avg. 9.7%). Directs: 31.6% (prev. 12.8%, six-auction avg. 22.2%). Indirects: 56.4% (prev. 77.4%, six-auction avg. 68.1%).
- Australia sold AUD 900mln 2.75% 2029 bond; b/c 5.97x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 3.6679% (prev. 3.4624%).
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were modestly firmer after settling around unchanged on Thursday, with little reaction to US data, while traders monitored geopolitics following several NATO-related headlines and Russia’s partial diesel export ban and extension of gasoline export ban.
- Spot gold was mildly softer but remained within recent ranges, ignoring President Trump’s tariff announcements and instead focusing on the upcoming US PCE report.
- Copper futures traded softer following Trump’s tariff announcements and gave back some of the prior Freeport-induced spike higher.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin consolidated after yesterday’s dire selloff, with prices back to around USD 109.5k vs USD 113k at this time yesterday.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese government revised July real wages to -0.2% vs preliminary estimate of +0.5%, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he will not comment on FX levels, according to Reuters.
- India’s government has drafted a proposal to relax foreign investment rules for e-commerce exports, according to Reuters.
- PBoC injected CNY 165.8bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40%; injected CNY 400bln via 14-day reverse repo.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY (Sep) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.5%)
- Japanese CPI, Overall Tokyo (Sep) 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.5%)
- New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence 94.6 (prev. 93.2)
GEOPOLITICS
NATO
- US President Trump said he wants Turkish President Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and that Putin ought to stop the war in Ukraine, adding that NATO’s relationship with the US is the strongest it has ever been. He noted that Erdogan could have a big influence over Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- Dutch PM warned Russia over further incursions into NATO airspace, according to Bloomberg.
- European officials privately told Russia they are ready to shoot down jets and view Russia’s Estonia incursion as deliberate, according to Bloomberg.
- French President Macron said France stands ready to support Denmark in assessing the situation and contributing to the security of Danish airspace, according to X.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Ukraine has a shot at getting territory back and that Russia is doing poorly, adding that he is dissatisfied with what Russian President Putin is doing, according to Reuters.
- IAEA said a drone was downed and detonated around 800 metres from the perimeter of Ukraine’s South nuclear power plant overnight, noting that 22 UAVs were observed late last night and this morning and that its team heard gunfire and explosions, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he believes Turkey will halt purchases of Russian oil, adding that it is harder for Hungary and Slovakia as they are landlocked with one pipeline, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he thinks he will make a major announcement on Syria today, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister told the UK Foreign Minister that Tehran had offered multiple diplomatic initiatives to keep diplomacy open, but the E3 decided to snap back UN sanctions to align with the US “maximum pressure” policy. He said the consequences of the snapback will be upon those who initiated and supported it, according to Aslani via X.
- US President Trump said he had good talks on Gaza and really good talks with Israeli PM Netanyahu, adding that a hostage deal could happen soon, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, according to Reuters.
OTHERS
- Turkish President Erdogan said the US and Turkey will discuss F-35s, Halkbank, and a range of topics, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said he had good talks with Turkish President Erdogan and that the meeting was conclusive on many things, according to Reuters.
- South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel for crossing the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Italy’s Economy Minister said the digital euro plan will take two years to be implemented, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Cipollone said they stand ready to react if inflation is expected to deviate significantly from the 2% target in the medium term, according to the ECB.
- Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) cut output and paused production at its German EV plants, according to Bloomberg.
LATAM
- Banxico cut rates by 25bps as expected to 7.50%, Heath dissented in favour of maintaining rates at 7.75%.
- BCB’s Galipolo said unemployment levels are a positive surprise and hitting record lows, adding that the central bank has no specific strategy for FX swaps. He noted the central bank is well-positioned to operate under a floating FX rate and intervene only in cases of market dysfunction, according to Reuters.
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
i do not think this is a smart move!!
(zerohedge)
In U-Turn, Germany Now Backs EU’s ‘Creative’ Plan To Use Frozen Russian Funds For Ukraine
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Amid all the threats and counterthreats related to warnings NATO is prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft this week, Germany has in a major policy U-turn called for the European Union to use frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine’s defense.
Berlin’s stance the whole time Europe has tried to gain consensus on this issue was marked by prior reluctance, but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a newly published op-ed for the Financial Times said the bloc needs to urgently establish a legal framework through which to unlock the assets, calling it essential to “systematically and massively raise the costs of Russia’s aggression.”
He laid out his plea for the loan to be directed toward military aid, with procurement decisions made jointly by EU member states and Ukraine, based on utilizing the €194 billion in frozen Russian assets held at Euroclear, Belgium’s central securities depository.
The fact that Germany as Europe’s largest economy is now on board is likely to both vigorously renew the debate and give fresh momentum to the hawks. Recall that a big European holdout remains France and President Emmanuel Macron, who said in Sunday interview with CBS News that confiscating frozen Russian assets would constitute a violation of international law.
Macron, already facing a political crisis at home, tried put a lid on these discussions. “You cannot seize these assets from the (Russian) Central Bank even in such a situation. And I think it’s a matter of credibility, and it’s very important that our countries remain… and do respect the international laws,” he said.
And so this has left European governments and G7 allies exploring ways to generate revenue from these immobilized funds without outright seizing them, which would have legal and political ramifications, as well as ‘blowback’ as much of the globe’s trust in Western institutions would further erode.
The Kremlin has already long warned that any such use of its frozen assets “will not go unanswered”. But this is not scaring Merz away, who newly argues that Europe must demonstrate “greater staying power” in the war in order to force the Kremlin to the negotiating table while giving Kiev more leverage.
Merz wrote that “This must not hold us back” in reference to the lingering legal hurdles, urging the EU to consider “circumventing these problems.”
“I am advocating the mobilization of financial resources on a scale that will secure Ukraine’s military resilience for several years,” he spelled out. He outlined the following plan:
The German chancellor is now seeking to use $160 billion in a loan for Kyiv. The sum would be made available to Ukraine as an interest-free loan that would be “repaid once Russia has compensated Ukraine for the damage” the war has caused.
…Under Merz’ proposal, Ukraine would only be allowed to use the funds for the procurement of weapons, and not for budgetary purposes.
The payments to Kyiv would be made in instalments and EU states, in conjunction with Ukraine, would then determine “which material is procured.” Merz added that he felt this mechanism would also help to “strengthen and expand” Europe’s own defense industry.
In essence it would involve taking billions of euros of Russian state cash held in Belgium, transferring it to Ukraine, and then replacing the drawdown with EU-backed bonds.
One diplomat has described the idea as “legally creative” as replacing the taken funds with IOUs would beat accusations of illegally confiscating property of the Russian state.
END
NATO/TURKEY
Turkey playing both sides and it will cost them!
Ankara’s Handshake With Tehran At Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit Is A Warning To NATO
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Gregg Roman via The Epoch Times,
At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shook hands, announcing a strategic drift with operational consequences that Washington and NATO can no longer ignore.
The SCO is a bloc built by Beijing and Moscow to counter Western power. Iran has been a full member since 2023. Turkey, a NATO ally, attended as a dialogue partner and lent the alliance’s credibility to a forum designed to oppose the United States.
The implications are concrete. Political theater at the SCO translates into permissive space for logistics, finance, and technology flows that erode sanctions and complicate allied coordination. Ankara’s engagement offers Tehran diplomatic oxygen, potential economic channels, and a path to normalize cooperation.
The operational question is not Ankara’s rhetoric but what capabilities and relationships this forum enables. If Turkish ministries, state‑owned enterprises, or defense companies use SCO mechanisms to expand contact with Russian and Iranian counterparts, the result will be stress on export controls, financial compliance, and intelligence deconfliction.
Defenders will call the maneuver pragmatic nonalignment. They will argue that Turkey balances among centers of power to maximize leverage. That case ignores scale and direction. When a NATO ally lends political cover to a bloc positioned against the United States, and does so alongside a U.S.-designated state sponsor of terrorism, the cost is not theoretical. It appears in blurred compliance lines, contested technology transfer, and allied planning that must discount Turkish reliability at the margin. The problem is not Turkey’s desire for autonomy; it is the friction imposed on collective defense when autonomy is performed on stages designed by Beijing and Moscow.
Washington should move from unease to policy. The U.S. State Department should formally request that Ankara explain the commitments it has made or intends to make under SCO auspices, including any participation in security or law enforcement coordination with Moscow or Tehran. That record matters because allied planners need to know whether Turkey is volunteering to sit in rooms where Western adversaries shape counter‑U.S. strategy. The U.S. Congress should open a review of security and financial assistance to Turkey and condition future support on verifiable alignment with NATO’s posture, including tighter oversight of export‑controlled technology, defense industrial cooperation, and access to U.S. financing.
NATO must also conduct an urgent compartmentalization assessment. The SCO signal requires a tighter calibration of who accesses what and when. Planning for air and missile defense, maritime posture in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, and joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance should be stress‑tested against scenarios in which Turkish equities diverge from allied priorities. That is prudence, not provocation. If not, the alliance will have built guardrails to protect sources, methods, and warfighting coherence.
This is a moment to speak to Turkish interests. The United States should make clear that the benefits Ankara seeks—modernization of its air fleet, deeper industrial collaboration, privileged intelligence and training pipelines—depend on choices that reinforce, not erode, the coalition deterring Russia and constraining Iran. Strategic ambiguity may serve domestic politics in Ankara, but it is incompatible with alliance systems that depend on trust. The price of trying to arbitrate between blocs is that both will question reliability; the side that runs the institutions you need will act on that doubt.
None of this requires hostility toward Turkey or indifference to its legitimate security concerns. It requires clarity about the consequences of choices. Ankara sits at the hinge of Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, and wants room to maneuver. But depth is not neutrality. When that maneuver space is used to legitimize forums that consolidate the power of Russia, China, and Iran, the maneuver becomes a vector for adversaries. The result is not leverage for Turkey; it is leverage for those who prefer a divided alliance.
The handshake in Tianjin is therefore a decision trigger. Washington and NATO do not need to overreact, but they do need to decide whether to treat this as business as usual or as a signal that Turkey’s calculus is shifting in ways that require a reassessment of the security relationship. Contingency planning should begin: alternative basing and logistics routes for critical missions, tighter technology sharing, and a framework for reconstituting cooperation if Ankara chooses to reaffirm its commitments. If, instead, Ankara deepens its ties to the SCO’s orbit, the alliance should be ready to operate with a Turkey that is formally in NATO but functionally semi-aligned with a rival bloc. Designing for that possibility today will protect allied deterrence tomorrow.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
end
HUNGARY/REST OF EUROPE
(KOLBE)
Safe Haven Hungary: Why Companies Chooses Orbán Over Brussels
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Germany’s disastrous industrial and energy policies are driving companies abroad in droves. Interestingly, Hungary, a country frequently maligned in German media, has emerged as a preferred location for investors.
German mainstream media regularly take aim at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His unflinching skepticism toward Brussels’ meddling, his uncompromising stance on migration, and his steadfast commitment to affordable Russian gas have brought him into open confrontation with both Berlin and the EU Commission. You can almost set your watch by it: when Brussels says A, Orbán responds with B. He holds up a mirror to the EU’s ideological strategies—and in doing so has become the biggest disruptor in Europe’s political consensus machinery.
Nearly every domestic policy decision he makes is under scrutiny, regularly attracting criticism from a press that typically pays little attention to Eastern European affairs. From controversial media laws to a fully understandable approach to NGOs—often used as tools to pressure governments through staged internal conflicts and mass demonstrations—the outrage in Germany is constant.
In this way, tiny Hungary, with its 9.6 million inhabitants—roughly half the size of North Rhine-Westphalia—shakes Europe’s political landscape significantly.
Propaganda vs. Reality
German media coverage has skillfully painted a distorted picture of Hungary: Orbán as a semi-dictatorial ruler, the country entirely subject to the will of his Fidesz party. In short: a place too risky to invest without sleepless nights. The reality, however, tells a very different story. Over the years, Hungary has become a true magnet for capital—including German money and multi-billion euro corporate investments.
Last year alone, Hungary recorded a surplus in foreign direct investment of around €10 billion. Remarkably, roughly 80% of this capital, which flows directly into new factories, jobs, and expansion of existing production capacities, comes from China, Japan, and South Korea.
This has quickly become another point of criticism for the von der Leyen Commission. Budapest is accused of serving as a gateway for Chinese influence in Europe. Yet the simple fact—that Hungary offers decisive advantages over other European countries—never seems to occur to Brussels.
Hungary as the Last Resort
For German politicians who enjoy moralizing about Hungary, it must sting: the German automotive industry sees its future in Hungary. The recently struggling ZF Friedrichshafen chose Hungary, as did Thyssenkrupp, Bosch, and Audi—active in Győr since 1993, with cumulative investments exceeding €8 billion. The facility alone created 12,000 jobs; Audi became the region’s largest employer, producing engines for global markets, with a strong focus on electric drives.
The same holds true for Mercedes in Kecskemét: €1 billion went into expanding e-mobility production, creating 4,400 new jobs.
BMW in Debrecen has invested €2 billion, created 1,000 jobs, and established an entire supplier value chain—the start of fully electric model production is planned for later this year.
The electric revolution that Germany tried to impose by bureaucratic decree is now unfolding in Hungary—thanks to far better conditions. A cynic might say: to get a snapshot of Germany’s innovative industrial landscape, one simply has to go to Hungary.
Hungary’s Advantages
Economically, it was only a matter of time before Hungary became a safe haven. With a flat corporate tax of just 9%, it leaves Germany, with its top tax rates—including trade tax, corporate tax, and solidarity surcharge (not yet fully abolished)—and rates approaching 30%, far behind.
Hungary also wins on energy costs: industrial electricity is around €0.103/kWh, far below German levels; households pay over 75% less.
Skilled labor is abundant, and education systems are aligned with the needs of modern industrial companies. Hungary pursues active subsidy and industrial policies to attract international companies. While understandable in a context of rising global competition, such intervention is, from a market perspective, unnecessary given Hungary’s natural advantages.
Massive Imbalances
The stark contrast between Brussels and Berlin’s regulatory obsession and Hungary’s business-friendly policies—which continue to leverage Russian gas despite sabotage attempts—will likely accelerate capital flight from Germany. Ideally, Hungary should hold a mirror up to German policymakers. Yet the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz appears determined to maintain Brussels’ eco-socialist course despite Germany’s economic decline.
Hungary’s projected new debt of over 4% this year, with total debt at 73% of GDP, should be enough for Orbán to scale back subsidies. Neighboring states—and Europe overall—are already trapped in spiraling debt. With a government share of 47%, Hungary is approaching European averages—the state must also be trimmed here.
Foreign investment provides ample room to consolidate without falling into the debt trap that ensnares many European states.
Ultimately, those who recognize the signs of the times and structure their business environment smartly—free from ideological fanaticism and grotesque regulation—will bind companies locally. In Hungary’s case, companies are streaming in from across Europe and the world.
* * *
POLAND
ROBERT h
Poland in the cross hairs
I had hoped for Poland’s sake they would sit this out. But over 18 months ago I knew that hope was all to be had. Preparations like this take time and candidates are chosen early. The Romanians are not yet ready so Poland is the candidate. It is why the largest NATO base in Europe in Romania is hurriedly being finished. It will not matter when war breaks out, the calling cards have been already issued to Russian hypersonic missiles.
Poland is preparing to amend its law on military deployments abroad to allow its forces to shoot down “hostile objects” launched by Russia, over Ukraine. Many people in Poland are sleeping walking into the horrors of war. And the cost of keeping 40,000 troops on the Belarusian border grows daily. And you wonder why Belarus has Oreshniks on duty or why nukes are on their soil??
The Polish law would include Russian drones and Russian missiles, over Ukraine without prior approval from NATO or the European Union. Do not know yet if the law would also cover Russian aircraft.
When and if Poland engages a Russian Missile which is “over Ukraine” then Poland becomes a “Party to the conflict,” thereby opening itself to being attacked by Russia. If a Russian Plane is downed, it will be too late to leave Poland.
It is true that NATO would have no obligation to adhere to Article 5, a Collective Self Defense article of the NATO Treaty; if Poland chooses to deliberately enter the conflict on its own. But while there may not be any “obligation” for NATO to honor Article 5, it is very clear according to Macron and Starmer and Merz that NATO WANTS to go to war with Russia. Their delusional dreams of conquering Russia and gaining its wealth is just that, delusional.
Perhaps, this is why US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, is calling for an in-person meeting next week of ALL Generals and Admirals of ALL branches of the US Armed Forces? This will happen on Tuesday and is unprecedented. Watch what comes from this and you will know what will unfold.
Hegseth KNOWS that Poland is going to do this, and likely KNOWS that Russia absolutely WILL strike Poland if Poland shoots down Russian aircraft over Ukraine, and KNOWS that Poland will declare Article 5 Collective Self Defense against Russia. The QUESTION IS WHAT WILL US MILITARY BE TOLD TO DO???? And even if Putin was not there; it is already known what his successor will do and very quickly. This is already gamed out.
If Article 5 is declared by NATO this means World War III and Russia stated early in the Ukraine conflict that if NATO declares Article 5 against Russia “it will be a war that no one will win.” It will be a nuclear war. And we should be clear China will not sit idle and that also is very clear. They will launch their own missiles.
Russia’s ambassador to France Alexey Meshkov has warned that if NATO were to shoot down Russian planes allegedly violating the airspace of the alliance’s member countries, that would mean war. The other day, I suggested that the initial Russian response will be non nuclear. However, as we watch the French practice a nuclear strike, one does wonder if common sense has left the room. When a nuclear strike upon Russia occurs they will level Europe and America will be hit, if it is involved. There will be no long war. This can be over in minutes and hours. A nuclear FIRST strike against Russia is an invitation to die. The “dead Hand” which is a computer generated response will activate even if all of Russia’s command structure is killed. There is NO stopping it once it engages. This system was created to assure mutual destruction in the case of war. It lives and has been improved upon since its creation. It is impossible to stop it once it engages.
THERE WILL BE NO WINNERS IN ANY NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION!!!!!!
END
ROBERT H
POLAND MOLDOVA
Today the Polish Ambassador in Minsk, Belarus warned all Polish Nationals in Belarus to leave immediately and the Polish border has been opened for this purpose.
Meanwhile, it should be no real secret that Oreshnik is being deployed on Belarusian soil this weekend. One supposes that given that its payload is deliverable in several minutes to Poland, this is seen as a threat. Russia and Belarus announced this some time ago that this would be the case. Just like the deployment nukes on Belarusian soil has already occurred. These nukes are in the form of bombs and Iskander M missiles. Iskanders come quickly but not as fast as Oreshnik and with far less destructive power. In any case, in th matter of Poland this should be irrelevant because Russia has Belarus’s back and would defend Belarus from Russian soil. The variation in missile strike time is very small from the nearest deployment already on Russian soil. With variances of a minute or two the matter is irrelevant as you cannot escape.
Neither Belarus nor Russia are interested in invading Poland. That you can be sure of. This is defensive posture. Just like other Oreshnik deployment that has occurred on Russian soil already. It is all part of layered approach to strike, if attacked. By such deployments of Oreshnik the actual time to strike target has been lessened by several minutes. All of Europe previously could be struck in less than 9 minutes. Now this window of time is shorter. A prudent party might carefully consider whether there is time to drink a cup of coffee if these missiles are launched. THERE IS NO DEFENSE TO THESE MISSILES. NONE! And anyone saying that there is, is a liar and a fool.
Any expanded conflict by NATO with Russia either in Ukraine or elsewhere will be over before a cup of coffee is enjoyed. Oreshnik has been in serial production at a rate of 10-12 per month. And while actual deployment is longer, there is reason to think there are enough deployed to have them in Belarus. And yes, there will be more than one deployed. Do remember that each missile carries 6 warheads. These warheads do not have to land in the same place. And the explosive force is equivalent to a nuke without a glowing effect of radiation. However, whatever is in the strike zone it will be gone.
Meanwhile in Moldova there is an election this weekend where violence should be expected between various factions. And to make matters worse mandatory enlistment notices have started to arrive causing many people to believe that Moldova is a pawn for war. And naturally not to be outdone Ukraine is prepared to send troops there as an obedient proxy that it is. If the election outcome is not liked.
Madness of war fever seems to be what is in store with little regard for what the outcome will be.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HRS:
ISRAEL/UN/NETANYAHU
Netanyahu at UN slams gutless Western leaders ‘insanely’ recognizing Palestine: ‘Like giving Al-Qaeda a state 1 mile from NYC after 9/11’
PM says Israel won’t let world ‘shove a terror state down our throat’ * Vows to bring all hostages home, in speech being broadcast into Gaza via loudspeakers * Says deal with Syria possible * Many delegates walk out as he arrives * Trump says Gaza deal ‘close’
Netanyahu upbeat on peace with Syria, Lebanon; says victory over Hamas will enable ‘dramatic expansion of Abraham Accords’
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City on September 26, 2025. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP)
In the final passages of his speech to the UN, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moves away from the Palestinian issue to other regional matters.
He says Israel’s “victories over the Iranian terror axis have opened up possibilities for peace that were unthinkable two years ago.”
On Syria, he says, “the very idea of peace between Israel and Syria seemed unimaginable” for decades. But today, “we have begun serious negotiations with the new Syrian government. I believe an agreement can be reached that respects Syria’s sovereignty and protects both Israeli security and the security of the minorities in the region, including the Druze minority.”
He refers to the Druze as Israeli Jews’ brothers in arms. “That’s why I couldn’t sit idly by, nor could Israel sit idly by, while the Druze were being slaughtered by jihadists [in Syria],” he says. “I instructed our forces to stop the massacre, which they promptly did.”
He says peace between Israel and Lebanon “is possible as well,” and calls on the Lebanese government to also begin direct negotiations with Israel. “I commend it for its declared aim to disarm Hezbollah, but we need more than words. If Lebanon takes genuine and sustained action to disarm Hezbollah, I’m sure we can achieve a sustainable peace,” he says. “Of course, until that happens, we will take whatever action we need to defend ourselves and to maintain the conditions of the ceasefire which was established in Lebanon.”
Further afield, he says, while “victory over Hezbollah has made peace possible with our two Arab neighbors in the north, victory over Hamas will make peace possible with nations throughout the Arab and Muslim world.”
He says it would enable “a dramatic extension and expansion of the historic Abraham Accords, which President Trump brokered between Arab leaders and myself five years ago.”
He notes the “encouraging words spoken here by the president of Indonesia” earlier this week, highlighting the imperative for Israel to have security. “This is the country with the largest Muslim population of all nations, and it’s also a sign of what could come.”
“Forward-looking Arabs and Muslim leaders know that cooperating with Israel will provide them with ground-breaking Israeli technologies, including in medicine and science, in agriculture and water, in defense, and AI, and so many other fields,” he says.
Now he moves on to Iran: “I believe that in the coming years, the Middle East will look dramatically different. Many of those who wage war on Israel today will be gone tomorrow. Brave peacemakers will take their place. And nowhere, nowhere will this be more true than in Iran. The long-suffering Iranian people will regain their freedom. They will make Iran great again. Our two ancient peoples, the people of Israel and the people of Iran, will restore a friendship that will benefit the entire world,” he predicts.
Concluding his address, Netanyahu says horrors such as those perpetrated by Hamas on October 7 had “happened countless times during the centuries of my people’s exile among the nations. Jewish blood was cheap. Jews were killed with impunity. We had to beg others to defend us. The rise of Israel did not mean that the attempts to destroy us would end. It meant that we could fight back against those attempts. And that is exactly what Israel has done,” he says.
“Our sons and daughters fought like lions. Our brave soldiers donned their uniforms and rushed into battle. They were armed with the dreams of the hundred generations of Jews who came before them: The dream of living as a free people in the land of Israel, our beloved homeland for more than 3,000 years. The dreams of living in our own independent state, the dream of having an army to defend ourselves, and the dream of being a light unto the nations, a beacon of progress, ingenuity, innovation, for the benefit of all humanity.
“On October 7,” Netanyahu concludes, “the enemies of Israel tried to extinguish that light. Two years later, the resolve of Israel and the strength of Israel burn brighter than ever. With God’s help, that strength and that resolve will lead us to a speedy victory and to a brilliant future of prosperity and peace.”
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich hails Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly as “important declarations.”
“He laid down once again necessary and clear principles, both morally and practically: We will not stop until Hamas is defeated and the hostages are returned. And we will never agree to a Palestinian state.
“Even if it is difficult, even if there is a price, and even if it takes time,” says Smotrich, who is one of the principal proponents of the war.
END
NETANYAHU:
Netanyahu at UN slams gutless Western leaders ‘insanely’ recognizing Palestine: ‘Like giving Al-Qaeda a state, 1 mile from NYC after 9/11’
AND
THIS:
NYC mayor meets Netanyahu, thanks him for ‘defending the Western world’
By Luke Tress
New York City Mayor Eric Adams meets Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly, September 26, 2025. (Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, after Netanyahu delivered a speech to the UN General Assembly.
“For decades, world leaders have convened in New York City for the United Nations General Assembly to pursue diplomacy and peace,” Adams says in a statement. “Allowing everyone to speak freely is who we are as a city and as a nation — and while many may try to reject that notion today, I will continue to embrace it.”
“That is why, of all the world leaders we have greeted this week, I was particularly proud to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his address to the United Nations, to thank him for defending the Western world and our way of life,” Adams says. “Prime Minister Netanyahu laid out a clear case that those who call for the death of Jews across the globe are also calling for the death of Americans.”
“At a time when much of the world is turning its back on the Jewish State of Israel, the mayor of the largest Jewish community outside of Israel must remain steadfast in our support for Israel, its right to defend itself, eliminate Hamas, and bring every single one of their hostages home,” Adams says.
Adams is a firm supporter of Israel who is running for reelection ahead of the mayoral election in November.
Adams is in third place behind the frontrunner, Zohran Mamdani, a far-left, harsh critic of Israel, and former governor Andrew Cuomo, another Israel supporter who has voiced some criticism of the war in Gaza in recent weeks.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/WEST BANK
It’s not going to happen’: Trump says he won’t allow Israel to annex West Bank
Bombshell declaration could well squelch dream of PM’s far-right allies, putting his coalition at risk; US president again says Gaza deal ‘close,’ but he needs to meet Netanyahu first
By Jacob Magid, Follow
Lazar Berman Follow
and Luke Tress Follow
US President Donald Trump, from left, gestures as Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listen during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Oval Office of the White House, Sept. 25, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
In his first public comments on the matter, US President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank.
“I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. It’s not going to happen,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked to confirm reports that he assured Arab and Muslim leaders of that stance during a multilateral meeting held Tuesday on the UN General Assembly sidelines.
Trump also stressed that he spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the issue.
“I’m not allowing Israel to annex the West Bank,” Trump repeated. “There’s been enough. It’s time to stop now,” he said.
Trump made the comments as Netanyahu was arriving in New York to deliver an address to the United Nations on Friday.
France, Britain, Canada, Australia and Portugal are among the countries that have recognized a Palestinian state in the last few days in part to help keep the possibility of a two-state solution alive. Israel has condemned the moves.
A senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel earlier this week that the Trump administration privately cautioned Israel against annexing the West Bank in response to the recent decisions by Western countries to recognize Palestinian statehood.
However, Jerusalem did not feel that the warning marked “an end to the discussion” and Netanyahu planned to discuss the matter with Trump during their White House meeting next week, the Israeli official said.
Even if the warning had already been conveyed privately, Trump’s decision to publicly declare he will not allow the West Bank to be annexed is sure to deflate hopes among settler leaders — which reached unprecedented levels following his reelection — that Israel would finally actualize their long-held dreams of annexation.
Without US support, Israel is much less likely to go ahead with the move, which would have diminished significance without backing from the world’s leading superpower and spark massive international backlash. A top Emirati official warned in an exclusive interview with The Times of Israel earlier this month that annexation would be a “red line” that would mark the “end” of regional integration.
Trump’s announcement could also spell trouble for Netanyahu’s government, whose far-right partners have made annexation a central aim and may be more inclined to collapse the coalition if annexation is now out of reach.
‘Close’ to a deal in Gaza
Earlier Thursday, Trump said that the US is “close to getting some kind of deal done” in the Gaza Strip after his “great” multilateral meeting in New York with the leaders of eight Arab and Muslim countries on the issue.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during the public portion of his sit-down with visiting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that “a lot was determined in that meeting” on Tuesday, during which Trump presented a 21-point plan for ending the war in Gaza and establishing a non-Hamas body to govern the Strip.
“I have to meet with Israel. They know what I want. I think we can get that one done. I hope we can get that done. A lot of people are dying,” Trump said.
US President Donald Trump, right, shakes the hand of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House, September 25, 2025, in Washington, DC. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
“I’m going to have to tell Israel, ‘Let’s go,’” Trump added, indicating that he might exert some pressure on Netanyahu when they meet in Washington on Monday.
In the meantime, Netanyahu and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer discussed US efforts to end the war and free the hostages in Gaza with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff at the hotel where the Israeli premier is staying in New York. Netanyahu will address the UN General Assembly on Friday at about 4 p.m. Israel time.
“We want to get the hostages back,” Trump continued. “We want them all back at one time.”
Trump said steps regarding Gaza could be taken “today,” without elaborating.
“Everyone wants to see that war over with. We’re going to see what happens,” he added.
Trump has predicted that a Gaza ceasefire is imminent repeatedly throughout his second administration, only for talks to subsequently hit snags.
But those hiccups didn’t prevent Witkoff from expressing his own optimism on Wednesday, saying that he expected a “breakthrough” within days following Trump’s multilateral meeting on Tuesday with Arab and Muslim leaders.
While Witkoff has not revealed details of the plan, a position paper on the issue which was given to the countries laid out steps towards ending the war in Gaza and establishing a non-Hamas body to govern the Strip.
Trump’s team is pushing Netanyahu to agree to the 21-point plan, according to Channel 12 news, which said that the premier was briefed on the framework “days ago,” and that he and Dermer “did not like” all of its points.
“Continuing the war will isolate Israel even further, but accepting the plan and ending the war will extricate Israel from isolation and enable progress in more positive directions in the region, with US backing,” a US source told the network on Thursday.
However, the report said Netanyahu is uncomfortable with the fact that Trump’s plan does not require Hamas to disarm and Gaza to be demilitarized as conditions for the war ending, but only post-war.
Smoke rises from Gaza City following an Israeli airstrike, September 24, 2025. (Fathi Ibrahim/Flash90)
He also does not like the provision that the new mechanism for governing Gaza will operate under the authority of the UN Security Council, the television report added.
The president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was a key player in Trump’s 2020 Deal of the Century peace plan and the Abraham Accords, was heavily involved in creating the framework along with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Kushner was filmed accompanying Witkoff to the meeting with Netanyahu and Dermer on Thursday.
The White House plan is based heavily on the one crafted by Blair and revealed by The Times of Israel last week. The former UK premier has been holding marathon meetings with regional leaders to rally support for his initiative, which would establish a transitional governing body that can administer Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority is ready to take over.
Citing people briefed on the proposal, the Financial Times said Thursday that Blair is seeking a senior role in running postwar Gaza and has been proposed to chair a supervisory board called the “Gaza International Transitional Authority.” The Haaretz daily said earlier in the day that the US is interested in having Blair head up the GITA’s international advisory board.
Channel 12 reported on Wednesday evening that senior Israeli officials do not believe that Trump will “force a proposal on Israel it doesn’t believe in.”
Unnamed senior officials told Channel 12 that Jerusalem sees Trump’s 21-point plan as a framework for creating a “day after” in Gaza, in cooperation with moderate Arab states.
According to the outlet, the Trump administration hopes that the framework will mobilize the Arab states — which the report does not identify by name — into pouring money into the war-torn Strip and rebuilding its civilian infrastructure.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas speaks via video during the General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York City on September 25, 2025. (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP)
PA urging countries to stage walkout during Netanyahu’s UN speech
Channel 12 also reported Thursday that the Palestinian Mission to the UN is working to arrange a walkout during Netanyahu’s speech on Friday, which they hope will be joined by Arab, African and even some European countries.
A source familiar with the details of Netanyahu’s speech told The Times of Israel that it will primarily focus on sharp criticism of European countries that have recently recognized a Palestinian state, saying the move benefits Hamas.
Netanyahu’s ire will be focused primarily on France, according to the source.
He will also pivot to the opportunities in a new Middle East after the defeat of Hamas, especially with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu, not surprisingly, will express Israel’s gratitude to Trump, the source added.
Israeli anti-government activists protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York City, September 25, 2025. (Courtesy)
Outside Netanyahu’s hotel in New York, around a dozen Israeli anti-government activists protested on Thursday, holding signs reading, “Save Israel from Netanyahu,” “Stop the war,” and “Free them all.”
Chanting “Bring them home,” and “There is no military solution,” the protesters said they seek an end to the war and the release of the hostages held in Gaza.
According to organizers, the families of several hostages will also lead a protest outside the UN Headquarters Friday as Netanyahu addresses the General Assembly.
Non-Jewish anti-Israel activist groups have also been protesting at the UN and have announced a large demonstration for Friday morning around the same time.
TURKEY/USA
Erdogan Secures Nuclear Energy Deal With ‘Valued Friend’ Trump
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 10:10 AM
The US and Turkey have signed an agreement to begin cooperation on strategic civil nuclear energy development, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced after leaving the White House on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump had earlier teased a “major announcement” after meeting with his Turkish counterpart. The move is a win for Ankara, given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not a popular figure in Washington under the previous Democratic administration.
Two former US officials told Middle East Eye earlier this week that Trump planned to discuss nuclear power and mineral deals with Erdogan. “We have started a new process that will further deepen the deep-rooted and multidimensional partnership between Türkiye and the United States in the field of nuclear energy. With the US Secretary of State, Mr. Marco Rubio, in the presence of the leaders after the meeting, we signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Civil Nuclear Cooperation,” Bayraktar wrote on X.
“I wish that the work to be carried out within the scope of the agreement will produce mutual benefits for both countries in the coming period.”
The US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, confirmed to reporters outside the White House that “the deal is done”. But there was more than one.
Shortly after Erdogan departed the Oval Office, the US State Department announced that it had facilitated the reopening of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to resume Kurdish oil exports to Turkey.
That flow had been suspended since March 2023 because of disagreement over whether Iraq or the Kurdistan Regional Government ought to be collecting the revenue. “We welcome the announcement that the Government of Iraq has reached agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and international companies,” the statement said.
“This agreement will strengthen the mutually beneficial economic partnership between the United States and Iraq, encourage a more stable investment environment throughout Iraq for US companies, enhance regional energy security, and reinforce Iraq’s sovereignty”.
Friendship
When Erdogan returned to the White House for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, Trump wasted no time in doling out his praise, including a demand that Erdogan take credit for his “surrogates” who now lead a post-Assad Syria. “I have great respect for this man,” Trump told reporters.
“When I was exiled [because] of a rigged election – he knows about rigged elections better than anybody – when I was in exile, we were still friends. That’s always a good way to test a friendship,” Trump added of his 2020 election loss.
The two leaders have a litany of global issues before them. Turkey has been playing a mediating role between Russia and Ukraine, given its strategic location on the Black Sea, and has secured prisoner swaps between them in the past. Erdogan and President Vladimir Putin regard themselves as regional partners, and Trump has recently also reinvigorated his own connection to the Russian leader, although that has been tested in recent weeks.
Within NATO, Turkey’s military is only second in size to that of the US, but it is aggressively lobbying to get F-35s, one of the world’s most elite fighter jets. It it also in talks over F-16s or, at the very least, their engines, which can only come from the US.
Erdogan told Fox News this week that he does not perceive Hamas as a terrorist organization, but as a resistance group. He also said Israel is carrying out a genocide in Gaza. The Trump administration wholly disagrees on both points.
And in Syria, where US-backed Kurdish forces in the north are still a thorn in Turkey’s side, Erdogan’s backing of rebel forces led by now-President Ahmed al-Sharaa has reshaped the country and its trajectory, leading critics to warn Ankara may have too much control over Damascus.
“They’re your surrogates. I think you should take the credit for it,” Trump told Erdogan with dozens of reporters gathered around them in the Oval Office on Thursday. “Take the credit. For 2,000 years you’ve been trying to take over Syria,” Trump said, turning to the members of his cabinet and advisers in the room.
“He took over Syria, and he doesn’t want to take the credit… it was a victory for Turkey,” he added in the more brazen style of public diplomacy the world has come to expect from this US president. Trump said it was Erdogan – alongside the leaders of Qatar and Saudi Arabia – who asked him to lift decades-long US sanctions on Syria to allow a broken state to start anew.
“I don’t think they couldn’t have lived with those sanctions. I took them off to give them a chance to breathe, but the president was one of the people that was responsible for that. He asked me to do it,” Trump said.
Will Todman, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told MEE that the Trump Administration “has dedicated considerable diplomatic and political capital to the Syria issue, but it continues to signal that it will not fund Syria’s stabilization and does not want to play a large role in Syria in the longer term”.
Trump, he added, “wants regional actors, including Turkey and Arab Gulf states to fund Syria’s recovery”. But Erdogan remains nervous about clashing with Israel in Syria, Todman added, and “lacks the resources to be able to dedicate significant funds to Syria’s reconstruction and stabilization”.
When asked by a reporter how Trump feels about Erdogan’s opposing position to the US on Israel’s actions in Gaza, Trump said, “Well, I don’t know his stance. I can’t tell you about that.”
“I’ll just say that we want to get Gaza over,” he added. “I think we’re close to getting some kind of a deal done… we want to get the hostages back”.
Prior to his US trip, Erdogan described Trump as a “valued friend”. On Thursday, in brief remarks to reporters in the Oval Office, he said the two of them have “managed to elevate the level of our relationship to a new horizon”.
“We discussed so many topics, particularly the F-16 and other issues. We will deal with them… We are always ready to do whatever we need to, and to be up to our responsibilities,” Erdogan said.
It’s no secret that the former Biden administration – and the Democratic Party on the whole – wasn’t as fond of Turkey’s record on what it described as undemocratic practices and human rights violations.
Trump, on the other hand, has long seen Erdogan as an openly transactional partner like himself, and has often expressed admiration for leaders that embody what the Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer described as “the character of strongman“. Trump said of Erdogan, “Usually I don’t like opinionated people, but I always like this one. He’s a tough one, and he does an amazing job in his country.”
Teasing F-35s
Turkey had been one of the main partners in the F-35 consortium and was responsible for producing certain components. The US currently holds six F-35s in storage that were built for Turkey and fully paid for, but have been in limbo since 2019. That’s because it was expelled from a co-production program after it purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system.
“He’s built a tremendous military, a powerful military [which] uses a lot of our equipment,” Trump added. “They wanna buy F-16s and F-35s and some other things, we’re gonna talk to them about that.”
Before the White House meeting, Turkey announced it was dropping some tariffs on US imports and leaked that it was planning to purchase hundreds of Boeing airliners and Lockheed Martin jets. “I think he’ll be successful with buying the things he’d like to buy,” Trump said, again appearing to tease a potential announcement.
“We’re going to be discussing the Patriot [missiles] system, which is the best system… We’re going to discuss the F-35,” was all Trump would give away to reporters on what the closed-door discussion would entail.
“We do a lot of business with Turkey. They build great products. They build beautiful, great products, really fantastic manufacturers, and we buy a lot from them, and they buy a lot from us”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally lobbied US Secretary of State Marco Rubio against the sale of F-35s to Turkey earlier this year. Dozens of US lawmakers have also said they oppose the sale, partly because of Turkey’s rivalry with Greece. Greece has already signed a deal to purchase 20 F-35s and has the option to purchase 20 more. Turkey is also looking to purchase 40.
END
this has no chance of survival!
(Times of Israel)
Tony Blair eyeing leading role in managing post-war Gaza under Trump peace plan — report
By Reuters and ToI StaffToday, 4:42 am
Britain’s former prime minister Tony Blair speaks during a session at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin on June 24, 2025. (Jade Gao/AFP)
Former British prime minister Tony Blair seeks a senior role in running postwar Gaza under a peace plan being developed by the Trump administration, the Financial Times says, citing people briefed on the proposal.
Reuters cannot immediately verify the report, which comes after The Times of Israel revealed Blair’s role in crafting a US-backed proposal for ending the Israel-Hamas war and establishing a transitional governing body.
Blair had been proposed to chair a supervisory board called the “Gaza International Transitional Authority,” the paper adds.
Blair was part of a late August meeting Trump presided over to tackle Israel’s war in Gaza and post-war plans for the territory.
In July, the paper says the Tony Blair Institute participated in a project to develop a post-war Gaza plan.
The think-tank had said none of its talks with different groups on post-war reconstruction of Gaza had included the idea of forcible relocation of people from the area.
The Haaretz daily reported earlier Thursday that the US is interested in having Blair head up the GITA’s international advisory board.
end
MUSLIM MIGRATION//PALESTINIANS//USA, EUROPE
Rubio Says High Migration Numbers Creating Local Pressure To Recognize Palestine
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Monica O’Shea via The Epoch Times,
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says high migration numbers have created domestic political pressure for Australia, the UK, France, and Canada to recognise the Palestinian state.
His comments come after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a firm warning to governments at the United Nations on the need to control their borders.
“Well these countries are doing it frankly due to domestic political pressure in their own countries, you know, because of migration policies,” Rubio said on Fox News.
“Their countries have been flooded with foreigners who have become politically active and are insisting that their government do these sorts of things, and so that’s what they are responding to.”
For the Australian Labor government, several cabinet ministers preside over electorates with high Middle Eastern migrant numbers, including Immigration Minister Tony Burke.
These electorates include Blaxland, Watson, Werriwa and Fowler in Western Sydney, and Calwell, Dandenong, and Chisholm in Melbourne.
On Sept. 23, U.S. President Trump called on governments to tighten migration policies, warning that high numbers are distorting social cohesion.
“While we will always have a big heart for places and people that are struggling and truly compassionate … they have to solve the problem, and they have to solve it in their countries, not create new problems in our countries,” Trump said.
“When your prisons are filled with so-called asylum seekers who repay kindness … with crime, it’s time to end the failed experiment of open borders,” Trump said.
Rubio Calls Recognition ‘Vanity Project’
Rubio also added that recognising the Palestinian state would have no meaningful impact.
“But look it’s irrelevant, it’s going to get a little bit of attention, but there is no Palestinian state. It’s kind of emblematic of what the president says about the U.N. You can put out all the paper in the world you want,” Rubio said, but argued the only permanent solution would be a negotiated settlement between Palestine and Israel.
“One in which the Palestinians are going to have a territory and they are going to govern it, but it cannot be one that’s going to be used as a launch pad for attacks against Israel. And that’s something that has to be negotiated with Israel. It isn’t going to exist without Israel’s participation,” the secretary said.
Rubio also called on the leaders of Australia, UK, France, and Canada to put effort into negotiating and eliminating Hamas so that talks can progress.
“But for them, and for some of them in particular more than others, it’s sort of a vanity project that’s trying to make themselves relevant,” Rubio said regarding Palestinian recognition.
Albanese Defends Labor’s Position
Australia formally recognised the state of Palestine on Sept. 21 amid pressure from U.S. Congress members not to.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia’s move was part of a coordinated international effort to build new momentum for a two-state solution.
“Australia will continue to work with our international partners to help build on today’s act of recognition and to bring the Middle East closer to the lasting peace and security that is the hope, and the right, of all humanity,” Albanese said.
Albanese again defended Australia’s position on Sept. 24 in New York.
“Australia has a position that’s in line with the majority of the world, which is to support a two-state solution, and we see that the people of Israel have a right to peace and security, but the people of Palestine have a right, a right to see their legitimate aspirations for their own state to be realised,” he said.
Trump, Congress, Haley Concerned
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley took aim at the four governments saying they had caved to Hamas.
“It’s a shame our allies are more concerned about pleasing Hamas than releasing the hostages and ending the war,” Haley said in a post to X on Sept. 22.
Republican U.S. Congress members also warned it would disrupt the current peace process.
“Proceeding with recognition will put your country at odds with long-standing U.S. policy and interests and may invite punitive measures in response,” the letter states.
President Donald Trump called on governments not to give in to Hamas, but to issue the same message: Release the hostages now.”
“Now, as if to encourage continued conflict, some of this [U.N.] body is seeking to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state. The rewards would be too great for Hamas terrorists for their atrocities,” he said.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
END
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/ITALY
Fwd: RIOTS erupt in Italy after Rome rejects Palestinian statehood – NaturalNews.com
RIOTS erupt in Italy after Rome rejects Palestinian statehood
- Tens of thousands of Italians demonstrated nationwide, demanding Italy cut military and commercial ties with Israel and recognize Palestinian statehood. Unions, students, and workers disrupted transport, occupied universities and blocked ports.
- Protesters in Rome, Milan, Naples and Venice clashed with police, vandalized property and burned a U.S. flag. Over 10 arrests and 60 injured officers were reported.
- PM Giorgia Meloni called the unrest “shameful” and rejected unilateral recognition of Palestine, maintaining Italy’s alliance with Israel despite growing European support for Palestinian sovereignty.
- France, the U.K., Canada and others recently recognized Palestine, signaling declining Western dominance and rising multipolar opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
- Dockworkers vow to continue blocking arms shipments to Israel, while protesters threaten further unrest, forcing Meloni’s government to choose between public demands and its pro-Israel stance.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators clashed with police across Italy on Monday, Sept. 22, in nationwide protests against Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. The rioters demanded that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government sever commercial and military ties with Israel and recognize Palestinian statehood.
The protests, organized under the slogan “Let’s Block Everything,” were backed by trade unions and grassroots labor groups. In the capital Rome, crowds marched through the streets – shutting down highways and waving Palestinian flags with signs reading “Free Palestine.” University students in Turin and Bologna occupied lecture halls, while public transport in Milan faced major disruptions.
Also in Milan, violent confrontations erupted – where protesters smashed glass doors at the city’s Central Station and set fire to a U.S. flag near the American consulate. This prompted law enforcement to deploy tear gas. More than 10 people were arrested, and at least 60 officers sustained injuries, according to state media.
Similar clashes broke out in Naples, where demonstrators briefly occupied railway tracks, disrupting transit services. In Venice, police used water cannons to disperse dockworkers blocking ports who sought to prevent Italy from facilitating arms shipments to Israel.
Port blockades were also reported in the cities of Genoa, Livorno and Trieste. “The Palestinian people continue to give us yet another lesson in dignity and resistance,” said Ricky, a protester in Genoa with the Autonomous Port Workers’ Collective. “We learn from them and try to do our part.”
Meloni condemned the unrest as “shameful” and “outrageous” in a post on X. She argued that the destruction “has nothing to do with solidarity” and would only harm Italian citizens.
Meloni refuses to recognize Palestine despite EU allies’ shift
The demonstrations coincided with growing international momentum for Palestinian statehood – with multiple nations recognizing Palestine in recent days, including France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Portugal. French President Emmanuel Macron formally recognized Palestine on Monday, calling it a “necessity” for peace – something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced as a “reward for terrorism.”
Brighteon.AI‘s Enoch engine points out that the State of Palestine being recognized by several countries at the United Nations General Assembly “signals a growing global rejection of Western dominance and marks the decline of U.S. and U.K. influence, as the world increasingly supports Palestinian sovereignty despite opposition from these imperialist powers. This shift highlights the crumbling of the Western-controlled world order and the rise of a multipolar system that challenges Zionist and globalist agendas.” (Related: UN overwhelmingly backs Palestinian statehood as Israel and U.S. vote against it.)
Despite voting in favor of a UN resolution earlier this month supporting a two-state solution, Meloni’s right-wing government has refused to unilaterally recognize Palestine, calling such a move “counterproductive” before a formal state is established. Italy remains one of Israel’s closest allies in the European Union, citing historical responsibility and security cooperation.
The war, triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack that killed 1,200 Israelis, has claimed over 65,000 Palestinian lives, according to Gaza health authorities. This has also prompted a UN commission to accuse Israel of genocide.
As Italy grapples with domestic unrest and diplomatic isolation, Meloni’s refusal to align with European allies risks further inflaming tensions. With dockworkers vowing to continue blocking arms shipments and protesters pledging escalation, the government faces mounting pressure to reconsider its stance – or brace for more upheaval.
The crisis underscores a deepening global divide over Israel’s military campaign, with civilian casualties fueling outrage and hardening resistance. Whether Italy’s leadership will bend to public demands or double down on its alliance with Netanyahu remains uncertain – but the streets have made their verdict clear.
Rioting.news has more similar stories.
Watch U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming that the recognition of Palestine is “fake” in this clip.
This video is from The Prisoner channel on Brighteon.com.
END
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
IDF strikes what it says is Hezbollah missile manufacturing site in eastern Lebanon
By ToI StaffToday, 1:47 am
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Senior Hamas official insists Oct. 7 helped the Palestinian cause, as it exposed Israel’s ‘brutality’
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Beirut, Lebanon, October 26, 2023. (AP/Bilal Hussein)
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad insists that the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel was a “benefit” to the Palestinian cause, despite the deadly war still raging in the Gaza Strip, two years after the massacre in southern Israel.
In an interview with CNN aired Thursday, Hamad says that the cross-border assault, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage, created a “golden moment” for the future of the Palestinians, as the subsequent war has exposed Israel’s “brutality” to the world.
“You know what is the benefit of October 7 now?” Hamad asks. “If you look to the [UN] General Assembly yesterday, when about 194 people opened their eyes and looked to the atrocity, to the brutality of Israel, and all of them, they condemned Israel.”
“We waited for this moment for 77 years,” he says. “I think this is a golden moment for the world to change history.”
According to Hamas’s own figures, which cannot be independently verified, more than 65,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7.
Asked by CNN whether Hamas is in any way responsible for these deaths, given that it unleashed war with Israel by launching its October 7 assault, Hamad denies that this is the case, and suggests there had been no alternative way to advance the Palestinian cause.
“I know the price [is]so high, but I’m asking again, what is the option?” he inquires.
He also rejects the insistence by Western states that Hamas must have no place in a future independent Palestinian state, saying that the world could not “exclude” the terror group, as it is “playing a positive role” to advance the cause.
HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
(KORYBKO)
Is Zelensky Manipulating Trump Into A Disaster Of Epic Proportions?
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Even worse, it would be all because of Zelensky’s lust for money and power, not any legitimate reason.
Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine was explained here as being partially due to him responding to the whispers of warmongers like Zelensky, who boasted afterwards that “Gradually, (Trump) realized that Putin was simply sharing some information that was far from the truth on the battlefield. Now he trusts me much more because the information that my intelligence has, that we share with our partners.”
This is leading to Trump being manipulated by Zelensky into a disaster of epic proportions if he doesn’t soon wise up.
The American leader likely took at face value his Ukrainian counterpart’s claim of reconquering 360 square kilometers in recent weeks even though the latter’s own top general earlier assessed the amount to be less than half of that at only 160 square kilometers. This might have convinced him that his new policy of selling new arms to NATO at full price for subsequent transfer to Ukraine is paying off. Zelensky was probably also responsible for Trump writing in his post that the Russian economy is in deep trouble.
These false beliefs, which are based on lies laundered by Zelensky as “intelligence”, arguably emboldened Trump to declare his support for NATO shooting down Russian jets on the pretext of them violating the bloc’s airspace after the latest dubious claim to that effect from Estonia. He also threatened “a very strong round of powerful tariffs” against Russia in his UN speech, presumably against China and India who he described as “the primary funders of the ongoing war”, so long as the EU follows suit.
This evolving policy towards the Ukrainian Conflict – which includes military (more arms sales to NATO and supporting the bloc shooting down Russian jets) and economic (primary and secondary sanctions) components – is also largely driven by Zelensky’s other lie that Trump fell for. This one relates to his false belief that “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win…it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger.’”
The reality is that the UK and Poland sabotaged spring 2022’s peace talks, after which the conflict evolved into a “war of attrition” as NATO attempted to balance out Russia’s force superiority over Ukraine via unprecedented military, logistical, and intelligence aid. Putin’s reluctance to proactively escalate the special operation to a shock-and-awe war, whether one agrees with his logic or not, is due to his sincere belief that Russians and Ukrainians “are one people” as he lengthily explained in July 2021.
He nevertheless reaffirmed earlier in the week that “Russia is fully capable of responding to any current or emerging threat, not with words, but through concrete military-technical measures.” Therefore, if Trump lets himself be manipulated by Zelensky into escalating tensions with Russia or supporting those who do (such as if a NATO ally shoots down a Russian jet), then a disaster of epic proportions awaits. Even worse, it would be all because of Zelensky’s lust for money and power, not any legitimate reason.
Zelensky just wants more funds and arms to flow into Ukraine, both of which are increasingly being provided by the EU at the expense of its citizens’ living standards that continue to deteriorate due to the bloc’s anti-Russian sanctions, yet Trump now thinks that he’s the new Churchill fighting the new Hitler. It’s disappointing that the same man who wrote “The Art of the Deal” is now being played by the former comedian who he once mockingly referred to as “the greatest salesman” but such is the state of affairs.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
The Vaccine Schedule Finally Under Fire
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,
Well, Donald Trump did it. He scheduled a news conference on the science of autism, what we know and what we do not, and handled it masterfully. He is profoundly aware that as a parent and the president of the United States that he can make points that his own science advisors cannot make for reasons political, sociological, and scientific.
Trump, however, knows that expecting mothers and families still have to make decisions and those decisions could affect the health and well-being of their children for the rest of their lives. Nothing is more important. Meanwhile, autism is an epidemic. Something is causing this.
There is no such thing as a genetic epidemic. Nor is this traceable to changed definitions of the term else we would see a growing distribution among adults too, which we do not. FDA head Marty Makary, normally very cautious and careful in his statements, said the straightforward thing that no one has stated as clearly: autism is preventable.
Though Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jay Bhattacharya, and Mehmet Oz were there and speaking, it was Trump who bravely took the burden upon himself to say what vast numbers of parents and doctors suspect and know but have heretofore occupied the realm of forbidden thought. He laid out two main culprits: Tylenol for birthing mothers and infants and the packed vaccine schedule that hits tiny babies with a cocktail of shots that have never been studied in their combined effects.
Trump was extremely clear.
Don’t take Tylenol. Also the schedule should be changed so that each shot is a separate vaccine spaced out over years. Further, some shots like HepB should wait until the age of 12 if they are taken at all. This would mean no more MMR, much less an MMRV shot that adds chickenpox to the soup. It would mean one shot for measles, one for mumps, one for rubella, and so on.
The products do not currently exist in that form. The whole trajectory has been to batch them up and this happened at the same time we’ve seen an explosion in autism cases. It is not a stretch at all to assume a connection. And Trump explained the stories of so many mothers, more than half, who report dramatic and immediate behavioral and cognitive changes following a vaccine.
These people have been gaslighted for 40 years. They have been called all sorts of terrible names. The scientists who have taken up their case have been shut out of academia, professional societies, journals, and been declared nonpersons. But they never relented. Trump has personally agreed with them for 20 years, a dating of his own. He and Kennedy have long had private discussions about it.
The entire field is a landmine filled with dangers both cultural and industrial. At some point, Trump realized that if anyone was going to break the logjam on this topic, it would need to be him. So he did it, and went much further than anyone—I mean anyone!—expected.
He noted the crazy additions to the schedule since 1980. The following shots have been added since then: HepB, Hib, PCV, RV, HepA, HPV, MenACWY, MenB, and COVID-19. This takes the doses from 12 to 35 and from 7 to 15 diseases. This is the gold rush kicked off by the liability shield put in place in 1986. Meanwhile, Trump referred, “certain groups that don’t take vaccines or pills and have no autism.” He turned to Kennedy who said quietly that some studies have concerned the Amish. Yes, said Trump, “the Amish. They have essentially no autism.”
Watching this in real time was something of a mind-blowing experience. These are all matters discussed in small groups and organizations of parents of autistic children. They have fought the manufacturers but with almost no success because of all the legal protections surrounding the companies.
From a broad perspective, the idea of vaccines is presumably to make us healthier. The opposite has happened. And that has given rise to a serious question of the complexities of human immunity. It’s fine to target a disease with an immunity inducement. We’ve been doing that for hundreds of years, with glorious successes surrounding smallpox in particular. But that success has also given rise to a reckless arrogance that imagined that the whole of the immune system could be replaced by laboratory gaming to outsmart the entire microbial kingdom.
The industry has become so large and powerful that it clearly exercises vast power over academia, scholarly publishing, government, and media through the power of advertising. The reach and influence of the vaccination industry became so vast that in March of 2020 it had enough pull to push 195 governments of the world to shut down economic activity until an antidote for COVID could be produced and distributed.
The problem should have been obvious to even a casual reader of the older literature. Immunity induction via a shot can have a sterilizing effect for stable pathogens like smallpox and measles.
It is a different matter for respiratory viruses that are forever mutating and adapting and also possess a zoonotic reservoir. If any mammal can carry the new strain, vaccinating is going to be like a game of Whack-A-Mole that never ends. Meanwhile, the vaccination itself can rewire the immune system to resist a deprecated strain while opening itself up to new vulnerabilities from unexpected places.
All of this could be known in advance, and was known. They went ahead anyway. Then there is the problem of a new technology called modified mRNA delivered through nanoparticles that control neither dosing nor distribution. These shots have been associated with what many experts say is unprecedented injury and death and yet the liability shields have prevented any litigation to collect damages.
When you look at this situation, it seems rather obvious that a time of truth-telling and accountability had to come one way or another. Trump remains very proud of Operation Warp Speed but deeply incredulous about the rest of the childhood schedule. His solution is in four points:
1) push HepB to year 12;
2) vaccinate against one disease at a time;
3) one shot per visit;
4) no mercury in shots.
Toby Rogers, the leading scholar of vaccines and autism, says these steps would end the epidemic.
If you have any doubt that he is correct to be skeptical of the existing schedule, I urge you to read a new book by attorney Aaron Siri with the title “Vaccines, Amen“. Of all the books I’ve read on this subject, this one is the most compelling and most overwhelmingly persuasive. It documents depositions, safety records, whether and to what extent these potions have really ever been subject to placebo-controlled trials, and the large literature that has been suppressed and deprecated. The book will amaze you, especially with its extensive documentation of how all the diseases against which we vaccinate were largely controlled before the product was ever released.
Let me end on a personal note, if I may. I have been writing on pandemic planning for 20 years. In all that time, I failed to see much less understand the role of the pharmaceutical industry as the hidden hand behind the scenes. When the COVID shots were released, I never believed that they would work in any normal sense in which we use this term but I had no awareness of dangers to health. I had never heard the term “anti-vaxer” until perhaps 2021 and certainly could not articulate a rationale for the view.
I never could have imagined that I would be watching and cheering a presidential press conference that essentially blew up the entire orthodoxy surrounding the childhood schedule. Clearly, the pandemic response of five years ago has opened up new ways of thinking. The mainstream media is already screaming like it is the end of the world. It is not. It is the beginning of the end of unquestioned pharmaceutical power.
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
UK: Yungblud, 27, cancels show, James Bourne, 42, quits band’s tour, George Russell, 27, halts F1 duties; JA: wrestler Takuya Nomura, 31, has kidney failure; PH: comic Ate Gay, 54, has Stage 4 cancer
More sudden cancelations or postponements of shows/appearances among jabbed celebrities, these reported outside the US
| Mark Crispin MillerSep 25 |
UNITED KINGDOM
Yungblud Forced to Cancel Show Due to Illness, Offers Free Beer to Apologize to Fans
September 20, 2025
British musician Yungblud was forced to cancel his Philadelphia concert due to illness. He announced the disappointing news to fans via Instagram. “Philly, I’m gutted to have to do this but I need to reschedule the show tonight,” Yungblud said. “I’ve been trying to get better for two days since New York but I literally can’t get off the floor and doctors have advised me that I have a virus that requires me to rest and take it seriously.”
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s Note – 2021: Yungblud is postponing his show for health reasons — but leaving fans with a gift. On Thursday, July 10, the singer-songwriter, 27, revealed that he’s had to postpone his show in Liverpool, England, due to suffering from tonsillitis. “My f—ing tonsillitis still hasn’t cleared up so I’m getting steroid treatment,” he wrote on his Instagram Stories. “I have plans to get the f—ers out as they’re a weak point for me but I need to find some time as obviously we’ve been non stop.” Yungblud said he would encourage people to get vaccinated [sic] against coronavirus or take other precautions before attending live shows: Link
James Bourne quits Busted vs McFly tour just a day before bands kick off in Birmingham
September 15, 2025
James Bourne has pulled out of the Busted vs McFly tour, just a day before the bands kick off in Birmingham. The Busted star, 42, announced in a statement on Monday that he’s had to quit the tour due to health reasons. James wrote on Instagram: ‘The VS tour kicks off tomorrow night in Birmingham and as excited as l’ve been all year for this tour to begin. ‘I’m really sorry to say that over the last 8 days it has become clear that I am not in good enough health to play these shows 😦 ‘There’s a lot of information I still don’t have about my condition but my bandmates, management and I are unanimous in deciding that I should focus on the medical stuff for now.”
George Russell forced to pull out of F1 duties with illness after Mercedes star’s four-month pneumonia battle
September 18, 2025
George Russell will miss today’s media session for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix due to illness. The British 27-year-old is not taking any chances, having endured a four-month battle with pneumonia in November 2023. A post on Mercedes’ X account read: “Unfortunately, George won’t be at track today because he’s feeling unwell and resting up ahead of tomorrow’s track action.” No further updates have been issued at this stage but Russell is set to be back in action for both of Friday’s practice sessions at the Baku City Circuit. Russell opened up about his pneumonia battle when he won in Las Vegas last year, he said: “I really wanted to do it (jump in the fountains), but I was so cold after the race I thought I would get super ill. This time last year I actually caught pneumonia and I was ill all the way into mid-February after Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi.”
Researcher’s Note – COVID-19: Lewis Hamilton and George Russell among Formula 1 stars urging fans to get vaccines [sic] and boosters [sic] in new video: Link
JAPAN
Takuya Nomura Diagnosed With Kidney Failure, Condition Does Not Currently Require Dialysis
September 15, 2025
Big Japan Pro Wrestling held a press conference on September 14th for Takuya Nomura [31]. It was to announce that Nomura has been diagnosed with kidney failure. He’ll be taking an indefinite leave of absence from wrestling as a result. On the 9th of August 2025, Nomura said he’d be absent for the time being due to a doctor’s orders because of a preexisting condition. It was clarified during the 9/14 press conference that Nomura does not currently need treatments like dialysis, which helps maintain kidney function when the kidneys are no longer able to do so adequately. Nomura stated that his first goal is to get back to being healthy.
PHILIPPINES
[Comic] Ate Gay reveals stage 4 cancer diagnosis: ‘Wala raw lunas’
September 21, 2025
Gil Aducal Morales [54], best known as Ate Gay, revealed that he was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer while remaining hopeful that there is a cure for his condition. Ate Gay opened up about his cancer diagnosis through the social media platforms of “Kapuso Mo, Jessica Soho” on Saturday, Sept. 20, saying he would take a break from doing comedy. “It started like an ordinary lump. My face looked uneven. I underwent an ultrasound and a CT scan. After the CT scan, I was told to undergo a biopsy. The findings at first were benign.” Ate Gay then sought a second opinion, although he noticed that his lump had grown bigger and it bled after a show in Canada. “I had a show in Canada where I noticed that it was getting bigger. It kept on bleeding. I have a difficult condition now. They said I have cancer, stage 4. Will I live longer? They said I won’t make it until 2026. This is why it hurts me so much. I was told I can’t undergo an operation anymore, that there is no cure. This is painful for me. I cry almost every day. I never failed the Lord. Although I always said that there is no such thing as a miracle. I need your prayers. I need strength, and I hope that I can brave through every single day.”
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7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Why Africa’s Largest Untapped Oil Field Has Yet To Flow
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Natalia Katona via OilPrice.com,
- The world’s largest oil discovery of 2022, Namibia’s ultra-deepwater Venus remains one of the world’s most technologically complex prospects.
- Namibia’s demand that TotalEnergies supplies Venus’ gas output onshore complicates project economics.
- TotalEnergies has already adjusted its production profile to reflect Namibian realities.
TotalEnergies’ Venus project in Namibia’s Orange Basin is the kind of discovery that makes oil executives’ eyes light up and governments dream of windfalls. The discovery – made in February 2022 – was immediately recognized as one of the African continent’s largest in decades, with an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of light crude at 45 degrees API and 4.8 Tcf of natural gas. Expectations are high: peak output is projected at around 150,000 barrels a day and the field could remain productive for 30-40 years. The ownership structure reflects a mix of global capital and local participation, with TotalEnergies holding 45.25%, QatarEnergy 35.25%, Namibia’s state oil company Namcor 10%, and UK-based Impact Oil & Gas 9.5%. For Namibia, which had no prior large-scale oil production, Venus represents a massive turning point. By 2030, it could increase the country’s GDP by as much as 20%.
Yet the promise of Venus is inseparable from its challenges. The field is situated in ultra-deep water, 3,000 meters below the surface and 300 kilometres from shore. This alone places it among the most technically demanding offshore projects in the world. The associated gas adds another layer of complexity, becoming a major point of disagreement that stalls the negotiation process. Namibia wants Venus’ gas production to be shipped onshore to boost power generation across the country, whilst TotalEnergies’ development concept is to reinject the gas into the reservoir to maintain pressure, given the low permeability of rocks. For Windhoek, this is about more than energy – it is about securing long-term revenues and establishing a foundation for domestic power generation. For TotalEnergies, it raises costs and risks in a project already on the edge of commercial viability.
TotalEnergies has already adjusted its production profile to reflect Namibian realities. The company initially proposed a more aggressive development strategy with peak output of 200,000 barrels a day, but it has since revised that figure downward to 150,000 b/d. This reassessment is likely tied to the company’s broader strategy of prioritizing value over volume, aiming to sustain the production plateau for seven to eight years rather than pursuing rapid early gains (see chart). It also reflects an understanding of the strategic context: following Shell’s withdrawal, TotalEnergies is effectively the only major operator left in Namibia. Any future infrastructure – whether a potential LNG terminal on the coast, pipelines, or other facilities – will fall largely on its shoulders. Extending the production lifetime therefore helps ensure that such capital-intensive investments can generate returns over a longer period.
This tension defines the negotiations now underway. Namibia’s new president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has placed the issue directly under her control, creating a petroleum unit in the presidency to oversee talks. The concern is clear: the country does not want to replicate Guyana’s experience, where ExxonMobil’s 1999 production-sharing contract left the government with a royalty rate of just 2%, a deal exemplifying the downsides of nascent oil producers seeking to lure Western majors to develop their prospective resources. Namibia is determined to avoid what it views as an alarming precedent, and TotalEnergies faces a less agreeable counterpart at the negotiating table. CEO Patrick Pouyanné has said that the 2029 target for first oil can only be met if a final investment decision is reached by the end of this year. With negotiations still unresolved, that timetable already looks difficult to achieve.
Project economics are another source of debate. TotalEnergies has indicated a breakeven price of $20 per barrel, but this appears more a negotiation tactic than a realistic cost assessment. Comparable deepwater projects mostly trend around $35 per barrel. ExxonMobil’s operations in Guyana, at water depths of around 1,700 meters, and Petrobras’ Brazilian pre-salt fields, around 2,000 meters, illustrate this rule. Venus, at water depths surpassing 3,000 meters (and total depth of 6,300 meters) also happens to wield a high gas-to-oil ratio, rendering its development even more difficult. Without precise data on the gas content of Venus’ productive reservoir, it is difficult to design reinjection and processing capacity, making cost projections uncertain. Analysts warn that if gas proves more abundant than expected, reinjection could reduce net returns significantly.
The cautionary example of Shell demonstrates these risks. In early 2025, Shell announced a $400 million write-down on its PEL 39 license offshore Namibia, relinquishing its Jonker, Graff and Enigma prospects. The London-based energy major concluded that poor reservoir quality and high gas content made the finds sub-commercial. Shell’s exit illustrates that not all discoveries in the Orange Basin can be developed at scale, and Venus, despite its huge promise, is not immune to the same geological and economic constraints.
Even so, Namibia is positioning itself as a new energy hub. Beyond oil, the government has advanced a $10 billion green hydrogen project with German investors, due to begin production in 2027–28. The African nation’s concurrent pivot into non-fossil energies highlights its strategy of diversification, with Venus as the anchor but not the sole pillar.
For TotalEnergies, Venus reflects both the scale and the risks of its African strategy. Africa now accounts for half of the company’s operated production and commands the largest share of its exploration budget. Growth targets are centered on LNG and offshore oil in Namibia, Angola, and Gabon. But the Namibian project illustrates the uncertainties that come with frontier exploration. The company’s withdrawal from South Africa in 2025, after its offshore license off the Cape coast was rescinded amid political and environmental challenges, demonstrates how fragile (and erratic) operating conditions can be in the region.
Geopolitics adds yet another dimension. China has already established itself as Namibia’s largest foreign investor in uranium mining and is active in renewables and infrastructure. The African Energy Chamber recently opened a Shanghai office to facilitate Chinese participation in energy projects, signaling a deliberate pivot for the entirety of the continent. For TotalEnergies, this introduces a strategic risk: delays and disagreements with respective governments could give competitors a chance to expand their footprint, diluting the French company’s long-term position in Africa.
Venus therefore, stands as both an extraordinary opportunity and a profound test. On paper, it could deliver considerable growth to TotalEnergies’ cash flow by 2030 and redefine Namibia’s economic trajectory. In practice, the project must overcome extreme technical challenges, negotiate fiscal terms that balance investor returns with national expectations, and navigate a shifting geopolitical environment. If agreements on gas, revenues, and infrastructure can be struck soon, Venus could emerge as one of the defining oil projects of the decade. If not, it risks becoming another example of how frontier energy opportunities, no matter how vast, can stall under the weight of cost, politics, and competition.
END
Oil Prices Set For Sharpest Weekly Jump Since Israel-Iran War
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 12:20 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Crude oil prices today were set for their sharpest weekly rise since early June, when Israel launched a missile strike on Iran. This time, the jump was triggered by the news that Russia would introduce curbs on diesel exports, suggesting supply tightness.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $70.74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $66.36 per barrel.
Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said an already operating ban on gasoline exports would be extended until the end of the year, and a ban on exports of diesel by parties other than producers would be added to the gasoline restrictions. The ban would exclude deliveries under existing international supply contracts. The aim is to secure fuel supply for the domestic market, Novak told the media.
The news sent Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate higher as observers and traders took it to mean that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have done enough damage to prompt a squeeze on fuel production. This squeeze might in turn lead to oil production curbs if the attacks continue.
“Gains were supported by ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, NATO’s warning to Russia it is ready to respond to future violations of its airspace, and Russia’s move to halt key fuel exports,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters.
Meanwhile, President Trump has pressed Turkey’s president, Recep Erdogan, to stop buying oil from Russia, adding to the upward pressure on international benchmarks. Trump has also discussed oil with Hungary’s Viktor Orban, whose foreign minister earlier this week reiterated the Hungarian government’s stance that it would not compromise its energy security focus by budging to pressure to stop importing Russian crude.
On the bearish side, exports of crude from Iraq’s Kurdistan region are set to be restarted over the weekend, adding 230,000 bpd to international flows.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1684 UP 0.0023 PTS OR 23 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 149.67 DOWN 0.193 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3367 UP .0032 OR 32 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3942 UP 0.0042 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 42 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 25.20 PTS OR 0.65%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 356.48 PTS OR 1.35%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.17%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 356.48 PTS OR 1.35%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.20 PTS OR 0.65%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.17 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 399.94 PTS OR 0.87%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 3753.40
silver:$45.03
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.00 DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.177% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.651% DOWN 1/3 FULL POINTS AND 40/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.162 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.313 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.614 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7465 UP 0 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1679 UP 0.0018 OR 18 basis points
USA/Japan: 149.68 DOWN 0.188 OR YEN IS DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7520 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.552 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3939
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1355 CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1444
TURKISH LIRA: 41.57 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.651 DOWN 1/3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.162 DOWN 0 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.185% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.746 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.653 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3756.55
SILVER AT 11;00: 45.35
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 70.85 PTS OR 0.77%
GERMAN DAX: UP 204.64 pts or 0.87%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 75.26 pts or 0.57%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 196.70pts or 1.30%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 403.76 or 0.96%
WTI Oil price 65.39 11.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 69.68 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 83.70 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 24/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.226 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.779 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1700 UP 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3406 UP .0071 OR 71 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7470 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.565 DOWN 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.644 DOWN 4/10 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.161 UP 3 AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.54 DOWN 0.331 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3942 UP 0.0006 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 6 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 65.49
Brent OIL: 69.84
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.189
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 PTS to 4.767%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 3.689%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.234 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.788 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.88 DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.57 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83.48 DOWN 0 AND 46/100 roubles //
GOLD $3771.85 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 46.06 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 298.77 OR 0.65%
NASDAQ 100 UP 184.57 PTS OR 0.43%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.54 DOWN 1.20 PTS OR 7.07%
GLD: $ 346.74 UP 1.09 PTS OR 0.58%
SLV/ $41.86 UP 0.83 PTS OR OR 2.02%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 31.23 PTS OR 0.11%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Surge As Dip-Buyers Emerge, Silver Soars To 11 Year High
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks gain on in-line PCE with Dollar paring some recent strength – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 03:36 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar down.
- REAR VIEW: US PCE matches expectations, while Personal Income & Consumption top consensus; Trump announces tariffs on semiconductors, pharma, heavy trucks, and home improvement, albeit with many exemptions; Britain reportedly to face 100% tariffs on US pharma, while EU & Japan’s level would remain at 15%; Fed’s Bowman argues for proactive forward-looking approach; Fed’s Barkin sees monthly breakeven jobs rate between 0-50k; Softer-than-expected Japanese CPI; Better-than-expected Canadian GDP growth in July. EA nears ~$50B deal to go private.
- COMING UP: Data: Spanish CPI Flash (Sep), EZ Sentiment (Sep). Events: Bank of Israel Announcement; Labour Party Conference (29th Sept – 1st Oct). Speakers: BoJ’s Noguchi; ECB’s Cipollone, Muller, Kazaks, Cipollone, Schnabel, Lane; BoE’s Ramsden; Fed’s Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, Bostic; UK Chancellor Reeves. Earnings: Jefferies, Carnival.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US jobs data, ISM surveys, Eurozone inflation, RBA policy announcement. Click here for the full report.
- CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing RBA and RBI policy announcements; Reviewing PBOC, SNB, RIKSBANK, Banxico. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Light earnings schedule with NKE & JEF the highlights. Click here for the full report.
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- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
US indices closed the final session of the week in the green, and saw strength in wake of the US PCE report for August, which saw all the major metrics print in line. Treasuries saw two-way action on PCE, while the Dollar sold off. In the FX space, the Greenback saw weakness and pared some of the notable strength seen on Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case for the last couple of days, G10 FX peers have been at the whim of the Dollar and as such were firmer across the board with little currency-specific newsflow. The crude complex extended on weekly gains, as geopolitics has dominated the slate, with the latest update via the WSJ noting Trump told Zelensky he was open to lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, but he didn’t commit to doing so during a meeting on Tuesday. Sectors were almost exclusively in the green, with only Consumer Staples in the red and weighed by Costco (-2.9%) after SSS missed. Consumer Discretionary and Utilities outperform. Aside from PCE on Friday, overnight announced tariffs on heavy trucks, pharma, and some home improvement products as of Oct 1st, 2025. On pharma, a 100% tariff will be imposed on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless the company is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America. CNBC later reported that the White House will honour a 15% cap on pharma tariffs as part of trade deals with the EU and Japan, while Reuters said Britain would face 100% tariffs on US pharma. Precious metals (XAU, XAG) both firmed, with spot silver outperforming its counterpart.
US
PCE: PCE was largely as expected. Personal Income & Consumption were the exception, rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%) and 0.6% (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.5%), respectively. Core rose 0.2% M/M (exp. 0.2%) after the downwardly revised July figure of 0.2% (prev. 0.3%). Core Y/Y printed 2.9% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 2.9%). Headline M/M rose 0.3% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%) and Y/Y rose 2.7% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.6%). Personal Consumption on a real basis rose 0.3% (prev. 0.3%, rev. 0.4%). The PCE supercore measure rose 0.33% M/M (prev. 0.4%) and 3.4% Y/Y. The report resulted in some USD selling, but quite a muted reaction in T-Notes, with October rate cut bets seeing a slightly dovish move by end of day. NFP next Friday is more likely to have a greater impact on the trajectory of the FFR in the current environment, whereby downside risks towards the labour market have gained more significance in the Fed’s decision-making. Ahead, Pantheon Macroeconomics expect real after-tax income to remain stagnant through the end of this year, “given that employment intentions remain weak and only about one-third of the tariff-related uplift to consumer prices has fed through”. The firm continues to expect core PCE inflation to peak at about 3.25% early next year and then to rise at an annualised pace of just 2% from Q2.
MICHIGAN: UoM final Sentiment for September was revised lower to 55.1 from 55.4, against expectations for an unrevised print, whilst Expectations and Sentiment were revised down to 51.7 (prev. 51.8) and 60.4 (prev. 61.2), respectively. Inflation expectations ticked lower, with 1yr at 4.7% (prev. 4.8%) and the longer-term 5yr at 3.7% from 3.9%. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across age groups, income, and education”, although Hsu adds “a key exception: sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.” Hsu added that consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, which printed the highest reading in a year. September interviews highlighted the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labour markets.
FED’S BOWMAN (Voter): The Vice Chair of Supervision stood firm in the dove camp, arguing recent data, including benchmark payrolls revisions, show they are at serious risk of already being behind the curve; Should these conditions continue, concerned will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward. Bowman adds that recent data show a materially more fragile labour market, inflation ex-tariffs hovering not far above target. As such, Bowman views now as the time for the FOMC to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labour market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility. She expects inflation to return to 2% target after one-time adjustment from tariffs. Surprisingly, Bowman argued against the usual data-dependent approach advocated by many central bankers across the globe. “Inflexible, dogmatic view of data dependence gives a backwards-looking view of the economy, guarantees we remain behind the curve”. Fed should consider shifting focus from overweighting the latest data points to a proactive forward-looking approach, Bowman contended. On the balance sheet, she believes that if tilted towards shorter-dated securities, it would offer more flexibility. Bowman prefers the smallest balance sheet possible with reserves closer to scarce than ample. She strongly supports holding only treasuries. Meanwhile, Bowman sees slower population growth and an ageing population as more prominent factors in pulling down the neutral rate.
FED’S BARKIN (2027 voter): Barkin spoke extensively and wants to see what happens on the employment side and on the inflation side. The Richmond Fed President said both inflation and unemployment are moving in the wrong direction, but the downside is limited. Barkin said the Fed is now focused on the balance between its goals, reiterated data dependency and said the incoming data will determine if the Fed should cut more. Barkin sees the monthly breakeven jobs rate in the 0-50k range, which is the same as Chair Powell.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 2 TICKS LOWER AT 112-08+
T-Notes steepen in choppy trade after PCE matches expectations. At settlement, 2-year +2.1bps at 3.554%, 3-year +2.2bps at 3.506%, 5-year +2.2bps at 3.604%, 7-year +2.3bps at 3.791%, 10-year +2.1bps at 4.053%, 20-year +2.2bps at 4.649%, 30-year +2.2bps at 4.699%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -0.6bps at 3.219%, 3-year BEI -0.2bps at 2.723%, 5-year BEI +0.1bps at 2.441%, 10-year BEI +0.0bps at 2.337%, 30-year BEI +0.2bps at 2.229%.
THE DAY: T-Notes once again saw quiet trade through the APAC and EU sessions, trading within a narrow 112-07 to 112-13+ band ahead of US PCE. Upon the releases, T-Notes broke above 112-13+, hitting highs of 112-15+ before gradually moving to fresh lows of 112-06. PCE metrics were very much expected, with Core rising 0.2% M/M and Headline rising 0.3% while Personal Income & Consumption topped expectations. The release had little sway over Fed pricing by year-end, with a ~88% chance of a 25bps rate cut being priced (was ~90% pre-GDP on Thursday). At the Fed, Bowman (voter) and Barkin (2027 voter) spoke. Bowman reiterated her dove stance, “Recent data, including benchmark payrolls revisions, show we are at serious risk of already being behind the curve”. On the balance sheet, Bowman prefers the smallest balance sheet possible with reserves closer to scarce than ample. Additionally, she argues the Fed should hold only Treasuries. Elsewhere, UoM unveiled a downward revision to the headline, expectations, conditions, and 1- and 5-year inflation expectations. Similar to the last few months of UoM reports, Treasuries were unfazed.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 22bps (prev. 21bps), Dec 40bps (prev. 38bps), January 48bps (prev. 47bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 48bln (prev. 25bln) across 23 counterparties (prev. 21).
- EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.09%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. 88bln) on September 25th.
- SOFR at 4.18% (prev. 4.13%), volumes at USD 2.965tln (prev. 2.852tln) on September 25th.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.74 HIGHER AT 65.72/BBL; BRENT (X5) SETTLED USD 0.71 HIGHER AT 70.13/BBL
The crude complex extended on weekly gains on Friday, albeit in light energy-specific newsflow. Geopolitics has dominated the slate, and US President Trump’s posture on Russia seemingly changed earlier in the week following his meeting with Zelensky at the UN Assembly Meeting. Back to today, benchmarks ground higher following US participants entering for the day, although little move was seen after the US PCE (Aug), which was in line across all the main metrics. Baker Hughes rig count saw oil rise 6 to 424, natgas fall 1 to 417, leaving the total up 7 to 549. WTI traded between USD 64.66-66.42/bbl and Brent 69.11-70.76 as participants await any geopolitical developments over the weekend.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.59% at 6,644, NDX +0.44% at 24,504, DJI +0.65% at 46,247, RUT +0.97% at 2,434.
SECTORS: Consumer Staples -0.11%, Communication Services +0.13%, Technology +0.21%, Financials +0.71%, Industrials +0.87%, Energy +0.97%, Health +0.98%, Materials +1.05%, Real Estate +1.05%, Consumer Discretionary +1.45%, Utilities +1.59%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.97% at 5,498, Dax 40 +0.84% at 23,733, FTSE 100 +0.77% at 9,285, CAC 40 +0.97% at 7,871, FTSE MIB +0.96% at 42,646, IBEX 35 +1.28% at 15,348, PSI +0.49% at 7,953, SMI +0.38% at 11,921, AEX +0.43% at 938
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Heavy Trucks: 25% tariff on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world; of note for PACCAR (PCAR), Miller Industries (MLR), Daimler Truck (DTRUY), Volvo (VLVLY), Isuzu Motors (ISUZY).
- Home Improvement: 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, associated products & 30% tariff on upholstered furniture; of note for Hooker Furnishings (HOFT), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Bassett Furniture (BSET), Ethan Allen (ETD), Haverty Furniture (HVT), Home Depot (HD), RH (RH), Wayfair (W), Williams-Sonoma (WSM).
- Pharma Products: 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless Co. is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America; of note for Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Amgen (AMGN), Merck (MRK), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Gilead (GILD), Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novartis (NVS), Roche (RHHBY), Bayer (BAYRY), Novo Nordisk (NVO).
- Semiconductors: Trump admin weighing a new plan to dramatically reduce the US’ reliance on semiconductors made overseas; of note for GlobalFoundries (GFS), Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM).
- Concentrix (CNXC): EPS light with weak next quarter & FY profit guidance.
- Costco (COST): Beat on EPS & revenue but SSS was light
- Microsoft (MSFT): Named ‘Top Pick’ at Morgan Stanley; price target raised to USD 625 from USD 582.
- Kenvue (KVUE): Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Rothschild & Redburn.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan and upgraded at Citi to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
- Electronic Arts (EA): Near a roughly USD 50bln deal to go private, WSJ reports.
- US FTC approves final order to settle FTC charges that Omnicom’s (OMC) USD 13.5bln acquisition of Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG) would violate antitrust laws.
- US FAA is reportedly to begin easing restrictions on the delivery of Boeing (BA) craft, via WSJ citing sources; FAA expected to grant Boeing with the authority to perform final safety checks on its craft. Could be announced on Friday.
FX
The Dollar was weaker on Friday and took a breather from the recent rally. The Wednesday strength left desks scratching their heads, but Thursday’s ascent higher was driven by US data; Q2 GDP topped expectations, initial claims fell much more than expected, and durable goods soared. Nonetheless, some of this was unwound, and a bulk of it was seen after US PCE for August, with all major metrics in line with consensus. Overnight, Trump announced numerous new tariffs, but little action was seen on them. As a reminder, Barclays’ month-end model has moderate USD selling. Attention now resides around NFP on Friday, whereby consensus looks for 39k jobs added to the economy; as the Fed pivots its attention onto labour market weakness, analysts will be closely watching whether the headline figure is above or below the estimated breakeven rate, which Fed Chair Powell estimates is between 0-50k.
As has been the case for the last couple of days, G10 FX action has been dominated by the broader Dollar moves, as opposed to much currency-specific newsflow, and it remained the case on Friday. As such, broad-based strength was seen with GBP outperforming and attempting to reclaim some recent losses. Cable traded between 1.3330-3412, and trades off MTD troughs of 1.3323. EUR and CHF were the next best performers, although the single-currency Euro saw little move after 1yr and 5yr inflation forecasts rose in the ECB SCE. EUR/USD was within a narrow range of 1.1659-1704.
Antipodeans and JPY saw similar gains. CAD was flat. For the Yen, it saw mild weakness overnight following cooler-than-expected Japanese CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food Y/Y, whereby USD/JPY topped out just shy of 150 at 149.95. AUD/USD and NZD/USD were within very tight parameters, with high-to-lows within 30 pips of each other. Looking to next week, the RBA is on Tuesday, whereby they are widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, with money markets pricing a 93% chance of such an outcome and a 7% likelihood of a cut.
EMFX was mixed. For the INR, US trade negotiators in talks with Indian counterparts made clear that the Russia issue being resolved is crucial to a US-India trade deal, via Bloomberg, citing sources; added, negotiations were positive, but no significant breakthrough. RBI is on deck next Wednesday, where they are expected to keep their Repo Rate unchanged at 5.50%, with a Reuters poll showing 45 of 61 economists forecast a hold, while 16 look for a 25bps cut.
DATA RELEASES
no inflation problems here:
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 09:04 AM
After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite indicator – to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY… and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations.
Indeed, “as expected” is the them of this morning’s data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years… not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every “respected” economist predicted.
- PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3%, in line
- PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7%, in line
- PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%, in line
- PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9%, in line
On an annual basis headline PCE was flat at 2.741%, while core PCE actually dipped modestly to 2.905 in August.
All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most.
Headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) and +2.6% YoY (as expected)…
Core PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.9% YoY (as expected)…
For the second month in a row, Financial Services costs (i.e., soaring stock market and associated services) dominated SuperCore prices (and certainly have nothing to do with tariffs at all). Food services and transportation costs also boosted Supercore.
While prices are rising but in their recent normal range, income and spending both came in a fraction hotter than expected, up 0.4% MoM (above exp. 0.3%) and 0.6% MoM (above exp. 0.5%) respectively…
Developing
end
GARBAGE DATA AS ALWAYS
(zerohedge)
UMich Delivers Another Flaming Load Of Dumpster Fire Propaganda
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 10:39 AM
Two weeks ago, we pointed out that the propaganda bunker of militant radical marxists, also known as the University of Michigan Economist Department had made another catastrophic error in their so-called “consumer sentiment” survey which we are increasingly confident is the most fabricated piece of economic data still used for some inexplicable reason by traders to set market sentiment.
Specifically, we pointed out that while 1 Year inflation expectations across every single party tumbled (yes, even Democrats), the overall average was unchanged, with the report claiming that 1Yr inflation expectations were somehow 4.8%, even though Republicans were at 1.2%, Independents were below the average at 4.7% and Democrats, and their TDS hyperinflation delusions, were barely above it at 5.4%. How you get 4.8% based on this was unknown to anyone.
Well, two weeks later it appears they finally figured out what a mess their “data” reporting is and moments ago in the final Sept. UMich report they fixed it: according to the latest UMich propaganda, 1 Year inflation expectations are now 4.7%, down from 4.8% reported in the prelim report, and reversing some of the ridiculous August spike (how the average is 4.7% when Independents are 4.7%, Democrats are 5.4% and Republicans are 1.2% remains a mystery)…
… even as 5-10 Year inflation expectations rose again, only here too the change was moderated, and instead of 3.9% as was reported in the prelim report, the number has dropped to 3.7%
But while UMich may have fixed their 1 year inflation expectations report, the flaming dumpster fire was on full display in the 5-10Year inflation expectation chart, where even though Republicans and Independents inflation expectations dropped, and Democrats were unchanged, the overall median number ridiculously increase from 3.5% to 3.7%.
Anything to satisfy the UMich marixst Trump Derantement Syndrome, even if it makes zero math sense.
The rest of the report was the usual garbage propaganda one would expect when a bunch of marxists talk to a bunch of ultra-right win liberals: in the final revision, US consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row, down from 58.2 to 55.1 – a four month low – and below the median estimates of 55.4 (as a reminder, the original prelim estimate was 58.0) with both Current Conditions (60.4, prelim 61.0, August 61.7) and Expectations (51.7, prelim 51.8, Last 55.9) declining and missing estimates (61.3 and 52.0, respectively).
“Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
“Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets,” Hsu said, recounting perhaps her latest soiree with her fellow marxist liberals cat ladies.
Hilariously, even UMich had to factor for the fact that stocks have never been higher, and said that while sentiment declined among most income groups, it held steady for those with larger holdings of stocks.
In other words, UMich continues to primarily speak to Democrats who remain massively short ever since Liberation day and are getting margin called every single day.
“These differing trends by wealth help provide some insight about the relative resilience in aggregate spending seen in recent months,” Hsu said. That or maybe stop publishing ridiculous propaganda and actually provide an objective, unbiased take of what the broader population – not a bunch of masked Karens – really thinks.
ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES FOR TODAY
James Comey Has Been Indicted For False Statements, Obstruction
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 06:53 PM
Finally.
With just days to go until the statute of limitations ran out, disgraced former FBI Director James Comey has been indicted on two of three counts sought by prosecutors – one count of making false statements and one count of obstruction of justice – just days after President Donald Trump issued a public demand for his Justice Department to act “now” to bring prosecutions against Comey.
The charges against Comey are a long-overdue escalation in what Trump’s liberal critics have described as a campaign of retribution by Trump to use the powers of the federal government to enact revenge against those he believes have wronged him. Others, have pointed out that Trump is merely doing to his opponents what they repeatedly tried to do to him.
The charges follow Trump’s decision to oust U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, Erik Siebert, who had reportedly refused to bring cases against Comey, as well as New York Attorney General Letitia James, after Trump appointed him to lead the office. Trump then immediately moved to install Lindsey Halligan, a White House aide and his former defense attorney, to lead the office.
In a series of social media posts over the weekend, Trump said Halligan was being appointed to the office to “get things moving,” after attacking Siebert for his resistance to bring what Trump described as a “GREAT CASE.”
“Pam Bondi is doing a GREAT job as Attorney General of the United States. She is very careful, very smart, loves our Country, but needs a tough prosecutor in the Eastern District of Virginia, like my recommendation, Lindsey Halligan, to get things moving,” Trump said.
Comey, who was fired by Trump during Trump’s first term over the investigation into Trump’s 2016 campaign and its ties to Russia – which as everyone knows by now was one giant hoax – has been a vocal critic of what he says are Trump’s efforts to politicize the justice system. Comey proceeded to leak the ongoing case to the NYT and to weaponize not only the deep state but the entire liberal press against the president.
That argument is now likely to be central to Comey’s defense in his criminal case, which could prove to be a highly consequential test for both the Justice Department and the federal judiciary.
end
Trump To Bail Out Farmers With Tariff Money, Will Investigate Seed & Fertilizer Companies Over Jacked Prices
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 07:15 PM
President Donald Trump on Thursday announced that he would use tariff revenue to provide aid to American farmers until his import levies start to benefit them – which he says is only a matter of time.
“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until … the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said from the White House. “We’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we’re taking in a lot of money.”
“Ultimately, the farmers are going to be making a fortune. But it’s a process – it has to kick in,” Trump continued.
American farmers are struggling amid low wholesale prices and trade wars with Beijing – as China – the world’s largest buyer of soybeans – has stopped buying them from the USA as negotiations with the Trump administration continue.
Last week GOP lawmakers warned that American farmers are in rough shape, and urged the Trump administration to take action similar to what happened in Trump’s first term, when the government doled out at $23 billion bailout to farmers amid the previous trade war with China.
Those tariffs during Trump’s first term resulted in a $27 billion loss in the US from mid-2018 through the end of the following year, according to the US Department of Agriculture – with soybeans accounting for nearly 71% of those losses – or around $9.7 billion annually.
Suppliers Under The Microscope
Meanwhile, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an investigation into suppliers of crop inputs, including seeds and fertilizers, over potential antitrust violations, Bloomberg reports.
The agriculture and the justice departments have signed a memorandum of understanding to “take a hard look and scrutinize competitive conditions in the agriculture marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition,” Rollins said Thursday during a conference in Missouri.
Notably, the cost of key inputs such as fertilizers and tractors have spiked this year – in part because of the Trump tariffs, forcing farmers to feel the squeeze.
According to Rollins, the administration is concerned about “undue foreign influence” on the market, “especially given a significant portion of our fertilizer production is overseas.”
end
Brand name pharmaceuticals will be tariffed 100% along with heavy trucks and furniture
(zerohedge)
Trump Announces New Round Of Tariffs On Drugs, Heavy Trucks And Furniture
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 10:05 PM
In a day already overflowing with news, late on Thursday President Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs set to take effect October 1, including a 25% tariff on all heavy truck imports, 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 100% tariff on branded or patented drugs (unless a company is building a manufacturing plant in America), in a move that will likely send prices of Europe’s pharmaceutical companies sliding. The decision followed an earlier investigation into pharmaceuticals launched in April, suggesting the duties may be imposed under specific section laws rather than reciprocal tariffs.
The tariffs, which are on top of sweeping reciprocal duties Trump has imposed on countries worldwide, are likely to spur a fresh round of outrage, particularly when it comes to pharmaceutical imports. Experts have raised concerns that those tariffs could cause supply chain issues and make certain drugs more difficult and expensive to acquire.
Trump posted on social media that there would be no levies on pharmaceutical imports if companies have broken ground on a US manufacturing plant, or if such a plant is under construction.
“Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America,” Trump wrote. “There will, therefore, be no Tariff on these Pharmaceutical Products if construction has started.”
Trump’s announcement was one of several about new industry-focused tariffs set to begin next Wednesday. Imported heavy trucks will be subject to a 25% duty, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities will be hit with a 50% charge, and upholstered furniture imports are to be taxed at 30%.
Taken together, the moves amount to a rapid expansion of Trump’s tariff regime, which he started to erect shortly after taking office. It comes at a time when the president has flexed his executive powers like none of his modern predecessors; just as Trump made the levies public, former FBI Director James Comey — a longtime Trump political enemy — was indicted on perjury charges under heavy pressure from the president.
The posts offered no further details. But as Bloomberg notes, the pharmaceuticals plan, as described by the president, could allow for wide exemptions for multinational drug companies with presences in the US. The world’s largest drugmakers, including Merck and Eli Lilly operate scores of manufacturing sites across the globe. Nearly 90% of US biotech companies rely on imported components for at least half of their approved products, according to the Biotechnology Innovation Organization.
Asian stocks fell on news of the tariffs, with shares in Japan, Australia and South Korea all opening lower, while S&P 500 futures pared earlier gains. Asian pharmaceutical stocks slumped.
In April, the Commerce Department began investigating the impact of all drug imports — both finished generic and branded medicines as well as the ingredients used to make them — on US national security. By early July, Trump said he intended to give drug companies some leeway to bring their operations to the US before slapping tariffs of as much as 200% on their products. Then, on July 15, the president said he was likely to begin imposing tariffs on pharmaceuticals by the end of the month.
However, in late July, the US and EU reached a broad trade agreement that includes 15% tariffs on pharmaceutical products. That means European drug exports likely won’t be subject to the sector specific tariffs developed through the 232 investigation.
Trump is imposing product-bases levies using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the administration to impose tariffs without congressional action if imports are deemed a national security threat. The approach has already been used to impose levies on automobile, copper, steel and aluminum imports.
Other duties on critical imports, including semiconductors and critical minerals, are expected in the coming weeks. His administration has also launched investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices that could have wide-ranging effects for domestic manufacturers.
The sectoral tariffs offer potentially more durability than the country-level levies Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Supreme Court has agreed to consider a challenge to those tariffs, after two lower courts have already declared them illegal.
END
Biden, the complete and unadaulterated moron and all his mornic team:
Leaked Memo Reveals FBI Deployed A Stunning 274 Agents On J6, Causing Internal Revolt
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 07:45 AM
The FBI deployed nearly 300 plainclothes agents to the US Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021 riot, in an effort that became so chaotic it caused an internal schism within the agency that led many rank-and-file at the bureau that core competencies had been lost to “wokeness,” and that employees had become “pawns in a political war,” according to an after-action report hidden from the public for over four years until it was obtained by Just the News.
Anonymous complaints were sent to the after-action team by scores of FBI agents and other personnel – many from the bureau’s premier Washington field office (WFO) – detailing how agents were sent into a dangerous situation without proper safety equipment or even the ability to identify themselves as armed officers to other police agencies.
Most common among the complaints was that under former directors Chris Wray and just-indicted James Comey, the bureau had become infected with political bias and liberal ideology that treated the Trump-supporting Jan. 6 protesters much differently from Black Lives Matter rioters from the summer of 2020.
“The FBI should make clear to its personnel and the public that, despite its obvious political bias, it ultimately still takes its mission and priorities seriously,” wrote one employee. “It should equally and aggressively investigate criminal activity regardless of the offenders’ perceived race, political affiliations, or motivations; and it should equally and aggressively protect all Americans regardless of perceived race, political affiliations, or motivations.”
The agent suggested that leaders “identify viable exit options for FBI personnel who no longer feel it is legally or morally acceptable to support a federal law enforcement and intelligence agency motivated by political bias.”
Another agent suggested that the problem was widespread throughout the FBI.
“Currently, the US Attorneys office is dictating what it is that gets investigated. This is a dangerous precedent because we can barely get them to prosecute investigations that clearly meet thresholds needed for Federal prosecutions,” the agent wrote. “However, their willingness to conduct a search warrant on someone’s life for a misdemeanor seems ridiculous. It is unreasonable for the FBI to conduct investigations involving misdemeanor violations at a federal level… it is not our role.”
‘Hopelessly Broken’
Several employees directly mentioned the Washington Field Office (WFO) and its culture. “WFO is a hopelessly broken office that’s more concerned about wearing masks and recruiting preferred racial/sexual groups than catching actual bad guys,” wrote one worker.
“I wish you all would pay more attention to our safety than what type of masks we wear. If you are going to deploy us to a riot situation, then give us the proper damn safety equipment–helmet, face shield, protective clothing–and training!” wrote another.
In total, the after-action feedback spanned 50 pages, which were located by current FBI Director Kash Patel’s office and turned over to the House Judiciary Committed and its subcommittee
As Just the News notes further; the document has proven a bombshell to lawmakers, revealing for the first time that the FBI had a total of 274 agents deployed to the Capitol in plainclothes and with guns but no clear safety gear of way to be recognized by other law enforcement agencies working in the chaos of the riot.
Wray, Patel’s predecessor, steadfastly refused to tell Congress how many if any agents went to the Capitol that day. And a prior DOJ Inspector General Report did not divulge the number, referring only to a SWAT team the bureau sent into the Capitol and having more than two dozen informants in the crowd.
The existence of mass FBI agents at the Capitol on Jan. 6 could also be a problem in many of the cases that were subsequently brought in court. If agents were witnesses at the Capitol and did not disclose it in the subsequent affidavits during prosecutions it could create grounds for defendants to appeal.
The document also reveals for the first time that there were widespread concerns for years inside the bureau – sentiments that boiled over after the FBI began sending SWAT teams to arrest Jan. 6 participants on misdemeanor charges – that the FBI had become biased in favor of liberals and against conservatives.
Despite the pre-existing report, Wray rejected that notion in testimony before Congress. “The idea that I’m biased against conservatives seems somewhat insane to me, given my own personal background,” Wray told Congress in 2023.
“I have found almost invariably, the people screaming the loudest about the politicization of the FBI are themselves the most political, and more often than not, making claims of politicization to advance their own views or goals, and they often don’t know the facts or are choosing to ignore them,” Wray added in an episode of the podcast “FBI Retired Case File Review” that aired the same year.
Read the rest of the report here…
END
A MUST!!
Trump Directs Task Force To Counter Rogue NGOs, Leftist Groups Sowing Chaos
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 09:42 AM
Civil terrorism is spreading like cancer across the nation, fueled by radical democrats, left-wing extremist groups, and … let’s not forget … dark-money, billionaire-funded NGOs.
Taken together, this toxic mix has brought us a bloody September with a series of shocking events: from the transgender shooter who stormed a church in Minneapolis, to the furry-loving leftist with a transgender boyfriend suspected in the political assassination of Charlie Kirk, to Wednesday’s ICE attack in Texas by a far-left radical. These incidents have finally pushed the Trump administration to get very serious about radical leftist violence at a time when the Democratic Party and its allied NGOs have normalized assassination culture by calling everyone they disagree with “fascists” and “Nazis”.
The White House now understands that nuking USAID and issuing executive orders won’t entirely “disrupt” or “dismantle” the funding networks of radical leftist groups and rogue nonprofits. What is emerging is a fully empowered intergovernmental task force, something we pointed out was bound to form, because at the highest levels of government, war has been declared on the leftist groups (Marxists) sowing chaos and subverting the nation with one goal and one goal only: to collapse capitalism and implode the West.
On Thursday evening, the White House released a new presidential directive called “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence” that includes a whole-of-government crackdown on domestic political violence, treating it as organized terrorism.
“The United States requires a national strategy to investigate and disrupt networks, entities, and organizations that foment political violence so that law enforcement can intervene in criminal conspiracies before they result in violent political acts. Through this comprehensive strategy, law enforcement will disband and uproot networks, entities, and organizations that promote organized violence, violent intimidation, conspiracies against rights, and other efforts to disrupt the functioning of a democratic society,” President Trump wrote in the directive.
The directive states that a National Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) will be set up to “coordinate and supervise a comprehensive national strategy to investigate, prosecute, and disrupt entities and individuals engaged in acts of political violence and intimidation designed to suppress lawful political activity or obstruct the rule of law.”
Here’s the task force’s strategy:
Investigations (led by JTTFs)
- Probe recruitment, radicalization, conspiracies against rights, and politically motivated violence.
Target:
- Funders, officers, employees aiding extremist activity.
- NGOs, foreign-linked entities violating FARA or engaging in illicit financing. Coordinate across DOJ, DHS, Treasury, and law enforcement.
Prosecution
- DOJ to prosecute all related federal crimes to fullest extent, incl.: Assaulting federal officers, conspiracy, solicitation, money laundering, terrorism financing, arson, RICO, and fraud.
- Prioritize crimes like organized doxing, swatting, rioting, looting, and intimidation.
Financial Disruption
- Treasury to trace and block funding streams via TFI office.
- IRS to ensure no tax-exempt groups finance political violence.
- Financial institutions to file Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs).
Law Enforcement Strategy
- Use organized crime disruption tactics to dismantle violent networks.
- Mandate interrogation of suspects about organizational and funding ties.
Designations
- DOJ empowered to recommend designating groups as domestic terrorist organizations under 18 U.S.C. 2331(5).
National Priority
- DOJ and DHS to designate domestic terrorism as a national priority area with funding and grants to support law enforcement.
What the Trump administration is up against, as explained by civil terrorism expert Jason Curtis Anderson, is the alarming rise in far-left militancy as “nihilistic accelerationism,” only suggesting that “Far-left extremism extends far beyond groups like Antifa. There is an entire revolutionary (marxist) ecosystem of interconnected entities: billion-dollar progressive NGOs, anarchist networks, political organizations such as the DSA, foreign influence operations like the Singham network, gaming platforms, Discord servers and reddit threads, the dark web, and even civil-rights organizations staffed with “movement lawyers” fully dedicated to waging war against the West until it collapses.”
The NGO world is absolutely terrified. Their ability to sow chaos, subvert the nation, and attempt a collapse of capitalism for a socialist reconstruction is being disrupted. The only problem is that their woke warriors – like the one we saw earlier this week at the ICE facility in Texas – will only become even more activated by the “fascist” and “Nazi” rhetoric pumped out by Democratic Party leaders, suggesting the violence is far from over.
END
NEW JERSEY/PENNSYLVANIA
ELECTRICITY
THIS WILL BECOME A NIGHTMARE FOR NEW JERSEY!
(RealclearPennsylvania)
Electric Bills: The Pivotal Issue In Pennsylvania’s Midterms
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 03:00 PM
Authroed by Athan Koutsiouroumbas via RealClearPennsylvania,
Electric bills may be the pivotal issue of Pennsylvania’s 2026 Midterm.
Don’t believe me?
Just look eastward in New Jersey.
A near majority of digital ads are focused on defining who is to blame for New Jersey’s escalating electric prices in a heated, competitive race for governor. Just as many likely run on television.
The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, incumbent U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, is blamed for backing the status quo, resulting in skyrocketing electric bill rate hikes.
Projecting toughness as an executive, Sherrill points the finger at utility companies and campaigns on declaring an electric bill emergency.
As the New Jersey blame game continues through the fall, it is unlikely that anybody will point out that the Garden State gets much of its energy from Pennsylvania in the first place.
Through the miracle of fracking, Pennsylvania has transformed itself into an energy juggernaut. Without Pennsylvania’s ability to make more energy than it currently consumes, states like New Jersey would likely face rolling brownouts on the coldest and hottest days of the year.
However, Pennsylvania’s ability to export electricity is about to change.
Quietly this month, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission released a report validating what a handful of insiders already know: Pennsylvania’s energy demand is expected to double in the next three years.
It does not take an economics degree to understand that doubling demand while keeping supply unchanged is a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, there is no planned construction for any new baseload electric generation in Pennsylvania.
As a gas-fired power plant can take up to five years to build while nuclear power plants can take nearly a decade to construct, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic states are poised to be in a world of pain.
Pennsylvania’s Gov. Shapiro may have reached his breaking point, announcing at a meeting of the Mid-Atlantic’s grid operator that if a plan does not materialize fast to bring new generation online, he intends to remove Pennsylvania from the regional grid.
It is the utility equivalent of “going nuclear.”
Within a matter of hours, Pennsylvania’s powerful executive mainstreamed what was once considered a fringe policy. Seceding the Keystone State from the regional power grid of the Northeastern United States would be like the United States withdrawing from NATO.
With 86% of likely voters concerned about their electric bill, Gov. Shapiro is wise to get ahead of the issue. Finger pointing can only get incumbents so far before even greater rate hikes take effect next year. If Pennsylvania wants to avoid crisis, policymakers must move beyond blame and act.
Fortunately, there is some low-hanging fruit. The process Pennsylvania uses to gauge pending energy demand is severely broken. In a little-noticed hearing in the Pennsylvania state legislature, a stunning admission came to light: Pennsylvania’s electric utilities may be double – and even triple – counting the number of data centers and other large energy projects projected to come online in the Commonwealth.
The rise of data centers deploying artificial intelligence is what has driven newfound energy demand not only in Pennsylvania, but nationwide.
Data centers and hyperscalers appear to be venue shopping for the most electricity and the fastest interconnection to the grid. These potentially inflated figures, fed to the regional grid operator responsible for managing the electricity supply for Americans in more than 13 states, have contributed to sharply revised projections for energy demand.
The byproduct is voters are already paying the price for higher energy demand that may not exist.
The Pennsylvania Legislature should compel action.
First, it should mandate a full audit of pending data center projections submitted by electric utilities.
Second, it should direct the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission to revise how future demand is counted and reported to ensure that only substantiated projects are used in demand forecasting.
And third, it should insist on transparency from the regional grid operator about how those projections influence price-setting and capital deployment.
As far as actions the grid operator can take, it should take every step to approve all viable projects currently in the queue to get interconnected to the grid. Many of these projects have languished for years, for no clear reason.
With focus and resolve, these issues can be resolved by the end of the calendar year.
These reforms will paint a clearer picture of exactly what policymakers need to tackle in spring 2026 ahead of the midterms.
Failure to do so may result in candidates learning that their re-election was contingent on the electric bill, stupid.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
VDH: The Crudity Of The Obsessive-Compulsive Left
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 01:00 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
Donald Trump just visited the United Nations to offer a customary annual presidential address.
Before he arrived, there were reports that UN staffers had joked about shutting down the escalator to chastise Trump for cutting out aid to some UN programs.
Upon arrival, as if on cue, Trump was met by a series of mysterious coincidences.
As soon as he and First Lady Melania mounted the escalator, it suddenly froze—forcing them to walk up.
Other escalators worked fine. Shortly afterward, the supposedly broken escalator was just as mysteriously running again.
When Trump went to the podium, his teleprompter mysteriously quit—and his alone.
As he delivered his speech from a text, the amplification in parts of the assembly was mysteriously lowered to near imperceptible levels.
Despite UN denials, all three “accidents” were too closely tied to Trump to be coincidences.
But they remind us that the left-wing hatred of the president has gone global—even after two near-successful assassination attempts.
The House of Representatives recently offered a resolution honoring the life and legacy of the conservative organizer Charlie Kirk, murdered by a leftist assassin.
The left both feared and hated Kirk. Why?
He had been singularly successful in redirecting youth’s natural rebelliousness against the status quo onto the ruling, ossified liberal establishment.
Kirk was winning over a new generation of young Americans to be counter-culturalists and counter-revolutionaries.
He urged them to question the entire left-wing orthodoxy of higher education, the corporate media, and popular culture—the ruling institutions that the baby boomers had enshrined as the current establishment.
His singular success may be why the terrified left attacked him as much after death as they had while he was alive.
The House effort had followed an earlier bipartisan unanimous resolution honoring a Democratic Minnesota state legislator and her husband, recently murdered by an anti-abortionist assassin.
But unlike that earlier commemoration unanimously passed by all Democrats and Republicans, Kirk’s resolution was variously opposed by over 118 Democrat House members.
The new radical Democrats who increasingly control the party, such as Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Jasmine Crockett, were vocal in smearing the resolution.
But they went well beyond voting no by gratuitously slandering the late Charlie Kirk as an inveterate racist and all-around toxic person not worthy of any commemoration.
The common denominator to all their hateful outbursts was their venomous ignorance, given that they either never referenced anything Kirk actually said and wrote or quoted him inaccurately.
The race-obsessed Crockett whined that “only two Caucasians” had opposed the resolution commemorating Kirk’s life.
But this was another lie, since the majority of Democrats expressed their opposition either by voting no (58), abstaining by voting present (38), or by not voting at all (22).
Thus, contrary to Crockett’s trademark racist ranting, the majority of Democratic House members who opposed the resolution included far more than “two Caucasians.”
And even if she were honest, in her racialized world of hatred, would it have been more racist if only “two Caucasians” had opposed the resolution or if the vast majority of the Hispanic and Black caucuses in bloc fashion had overwhelmingly and disproportionately condemned and denigrated Kirk and the resolution?
This increasing coarseness of the left follows its recent canonization of the murderer Luigi Mangione.
The left-wing media also suffocated news stories about the horrific, lethal throat-slitting of immigrant Irenya Zarutska by 14-time felon DeCarlos Brown.
Violent attacks on Immigration and Customs Enforcement centers and individual officers are now routine and more praised than condemned by the left.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is emblematic of this fury and frustration of the new, obsessive-compulsive left.
His state is in free-fall.
Huge deficits, unfunded mandates, and the highest housing costs, gas prices, and income taxes in the nation force hundreds of thousands of residents yearly to leave.
California’s electricity and gas are likewise the costliest in the U.S.
The poverty rate is over 20% of the population.
A third of the nation’s welfare recipients live in California. Nearly half of its homeless do too.
Newsom neglects all these existential challenges and instead seeks to outdo his leftist wannabe presidential rivals.
Shortly after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, Newsom tweeted an implied threat last Saturday to Homeland Security Director Kristi Noem, warning her that she was “going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America.”
He had also earlier threatened the president with violence, “We are going to fight back and we’re going to punch this bully in the mouth.”
And Newsom had earlier extended that warning to half the nation of Trump supporters: “I’m gonna punch these sons of bitches in the mouth.”
The only mystery about the new obsessive-compulsive left is whether their vulgarity, violence, and crudity trickle top-down from the uncouth Democrat elite—or rise bottom-up from thuggish Antifa, BLM, and the rioters who attack ICE and Tesla dealerships, and disrupt Charlie Kirk’s funeral services.
END,
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 26, 2025 Issue 7685 | Independent View of the News |
| Q2 GDP 3.8%, 3.3% expected and prior; Consumption 2.5%, 1.7% expected, 1.6% prior GDP Price Index 2.1%, 2.0% exp & prior; Core PCE Price Index 2.6% q/q, 2.5% exp & prior Contribution to GDP: Personal Consumption 1.68 with Services 1.21 (Healthcare .54), Fixed Investment .77 (Nonresidential .98), Private Inventories -3.44, Govt -0.01 (Fed -.35), Net Exports 4.8 (Imports 5.3) https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/gdp2q25-3rd.pdf Aug Durable Goods Orders 2.9% m/m, -0.3% exp, prior to -2.7% from -2.8% Ex-Trans 0.4% m/m, 0.0% exp, Nondef Ex-Air 0.6%, -0.1% exp, Shipments -0.3%, 0.3% exp Aug Trade Balance -$85.5B, -$95.4B exp, prior to -$102.8B from -$103.6B Aug Wholesale Inventories -02% m/m, 0.1% exp, prior to 0.0% from 0.1% Aug Retail Inventories 0.0% m/m, 0.2% exp, prior to 0.1% from 0.2% Initial Jobless Claims 218k, 233k exp; Continuing Claims 1.926m, 1.935m expected Aug Existing Home Sales 4.0m, 3.96m exp; Northeast .48m, Midwest .96m, South 1.83m, West .73m Sept KC Fed Mfg. Activity 4, 2 expected, 1 prior The Big Story for Thursday: The US economy surged 3.8% in Q2, yet the Fed cut rates! Fed’s Miran says US economy’s vulnerability calls for rapid cuts https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/771636 Trump toady and new Fed governor Stephen Miran said, “now policy is more tight than people believe” and call for preemptive ‘rapid rate cuts.’ Miran: “I think policy is 150-200 basis points too restrictive.” This dope has no business being a Fed governor! Stocks at all-time highs and record valuations; an AI bubble; gold to the moon, and this clown thinks “policy is more tight [sic] than people believe” and the Fed should rapidly cut rates by 150-200bps! Miran issued his insanely idiotic remarks BEFORE The Q2 US GDP Report was released. Fed Governor Michele Bowman, who has been pandering to DJT for the Fed Chair, said the ‘fragile job market’ justifies more rate cuts and, get this BS, inflation is with the Fed’s 2% range. Yeah Michelle, and the NY Jets are in range of first place in the NFL’s AFC East Division! Trump and his economic dilletantes are headed for Herbert Hoover status. Stocks and gold near all-time highs, bonds threatening to break down after a consolidation from the worst multi-year decline in history, and the dollar at a 4-year low (and about to break down) – Yet Trump and his coterie want rate cuts! An unusual activity appeared during early NYSE trading: most everything declined as The Street recalibrated their Fed rate cut projections. The DJUA was up modestly at 10:30; silver and platinum were up sharply while gold was modestly lower. The dollar was moderately higher; Bitcoin was down sharply. If Mr. Bond breaks down further and Mr. Market realizes that the secular bond bear market has resumed – and it could become a Grand Supercycle Bear Market, it’s only a matter of time for a equity debacle. ESZ traded modestly higher, but in a tight range, from the Nikkei opening on Thursday until they commenced a moderate rally that took ESZs to a double top and daily high of 6705.25 at 21:47 ET and 0:04 ET. ESZs then fell to 6683.75 at 3:13 ET. Of course, conditioned European opening dip buyers eagerly bought. ESZs had an A-B-C rally to 6697.50 at 4:16 ET. Alas, too many traders got long; ESZs sank to a daily low of 6631.25 at 9:41 ET. Conditioned NYSE opening dip buyers did their thing; ESZs rebounded to 6672.50 at 10:23 ET. After an A-B-C decline to 6652.25 near the 11:30 ET European close, ESZs completed an A-B-C rally from the European close low and rallied to 6675.00 at 11:44 ET. The ‘C’ wave was the post-European close move. ESZs then sank to a new daily low of 6624.25 at 14:04 ET. Then, the manipulation to game Q3 performance that we warned would appear commenced. Thursday’s King Report: “If stocks are soft during early NYSE trading, look for an upward manipulation no later than the afternoon.” ESZs jumped to 6661.00 at 14:41 ET, retreated modestly and went inert. The late rally took ESZs to 666.75 at 16:00 ET. Gold turned positive near midday; and Bitcoin was -4.3% at 14:03 ET. Someone is hurting! CoreWeave inks $6.5 billion deal with OpenAI CoreWeave, which went public in March, makes money by renting out data center packed with numerous Nvidia graphics processing units… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/coreweave-openai-6point5-billion-deal.html @htsfhickey: The incestuous AI (revenue generating) “deals” continue. Both entities, OpenAI and CoreWeave, lose gobs of money and neither has positive cash flows. But CoreWeave’s stock is up (+3%) on the news! We’re three years into the GenAI capex spending binge and unless the GenAI craze starts generating real revenues from end markets (very limited to date) and cash flows – then the house of cards will come tumbling down – along with the entire grossly overvalued stock market. Starbucks to close hundreds of stores, lay off 900 workers as part of turnaround plan https://apnews.com/article/starbucks-close-stores-layoffs-3aa70c7d3828520855998a490ebe865b Dallas Fed President Logan: The time has come to prepare for a new benchmark rate. The case for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target rate – The Dallas Fed First, the Fed has evolved its operating targets through the years to maintain influence over monetary conditions as the financial system evolved… Second, money markets have changed greatly since the FOMC began publicly targeting the fed funds rate in the mid-1990s. The fed funds target is outdated. Third, while targeting fed funds currently provides effective control of broader monetary conditions, the connections are fragile and could break suddenly. The FOMC should take that risk off the table. And fourth, this isn’t a hard problem. A repo rate would provide a more robust target and allow us to adjust proactively and planfully… As I’ve said before, the Fed is supplying too many reserves and must bring them down to an efficient level. If anything, a more robust target rate would allow that process to proceed more smoothly… If transmission between fed funds and other money markets ever broke down, we’d need to quickly find a replacement target. And I don’t think making important decisions under time pressure is the best way to promote a strong economy and financial system. To fix this, the FOMC should plan ahead and prepare to transition proactively to a different rate… https://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/logan/2025/lkl250925 Positive aspects of previous session An afternoon upward ESZ manipulation boosted stocks. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined; USZs declined as much as 18/32, PM manipulation pushed them to +1/32 Precious metals rallied despite the dollar rally. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much more Q3 portfolio rebalancing is needed? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6597.65 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6619.00; 6569.22 White House to agencies: Prepare mass firing plans for a potential shutdown – Politico Specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue… OMB told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse on Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available… OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown… https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/24/white-house-firings-shutdown-00579909 @mrddmia: For decades, Democrats have used government shutdowns to extort more wasteful government spending for their leftwing allies. Trump isn’t playing their game anymore. Want a government shutdown? Your buddies are getting fired. (Chuck is facilitating cuts DOGE desired!) @HouseGOP: House Republicans did our job and passed a clean, nonpartisan bill to keep the government open. Now, Democrats are trying to jam through a $1.5 TRILLION spending HIKE — full of insane policies like free healthcare for illegal aliens — to keep the government open for a month. @IranIntl_En: Tehran will continue with its nuclear program, head of Iran’s atomic energy organisation, Mohammad Eslami said on Thursday. Eslami who is also Iran’s vice president added that the country’s nuclear program is completely transparent. (What now DJT? Your half-measure failed!) Microsoft disables set of key services to Israeli military after review found Gaza surveillance https://trib.al/CxsOwwq Hegseth orders rare, urgent meeting of hundreds of generals, admirals – WaPo The Pentagon has summoned military officials from around the world for a gathering in Virginia. Even top generals and their staffs don’t know the reason for the meeting… all senior officers with the rank of brigadier general or above, or their Navy equivalent… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hegseth-orders-rare-urgent-meeting-of-hundreds-of-generals-admirals/ar-AA1Nibmf How delusional and insular are leftists? ‘They’ are opening a Pandora’s Box for Disney with a lawsuit! Disney shareholders demand company turn over documents related to Jimmy Kimmel suspension Lawyers representing the American Federation of Teachers, Reporters Without Borders, Inc. and other shareholder groups pressed Disney to release board records surrounding Kimmel’s suspension… The letter, written in coordination with the Democracy Defenders Fund, accused the company of bowing to political pressure and warned executives may have breached their fiduciary duty by sidelining Kimmel… https://nypost.com/2025/09/25/business/disney-shareholders-demand-company-documents-on-jimmy-kimmel-suspension/ It’s an easier and more accurate case to make that Disney “breached their fiduciary duty” by keeping Kimmel on the air despite cascading ratings! Let’s see the P/L on Kimmel’s show! Bill O’Reilly exposed what the rest of the media refuses to say about ABC’s parent company: “Disney doesn’t care WHAT Kimmel says.” “All right, they didn’t share that there was almost a rebellion in the country over the MAGA-Charlie Kirk comments.” “Disney doesn’t care!” “They’re out in Burbank, California in a GIANT liberal bubble, they hear nothing else but their own far-left points of view reinforced.” “You can’t even get a show—look, if you’re not a liberal in Hollywood, you can’t even get considered.” “It’s insane what’s happening.” “That’s the real story.” https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1971021281970499683 @AuronMacintyre: The man who committed a terrorist attack on an ABC station in Sacramento to get Jimmy Kimmel on air was a former lawyer for a teachers union. The idea that it’s just college activists or lonely young men is incorrect. Even their professional class is radicalized. Comey indicted for false statements related to leaks to the media https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/comey-indicted-false-statements-related-leaks-media @Techno_Fog: From the Comey indictment – Count 1: False statement to the US Senate that he had not “authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous” news source. Count 2: Comey obstructed the Senate Judiciary Committee’s investigation through his “false and misleading statements” https://x.com/Techno_Fog/status/1971359246454563286 For context: The DOJ IG found that Comey provided copies of his Trump memos to his attorney/friend (who was a special FBI employee). Comey instructed his friend (Richman) to share the contents of the memo “with a specific reporter from The New York Times.” The statute of limitations for Comey’s alleged lying to Congress expires on Tuesday. Reportedly, Comey is still under investigation for other things. @C__Herridge : @Comey indictment – This is the clip you should not miss. In August, I reposted Comey’s 2017 congressional testimony. Under oath, Comey denied @ChuckGrassley that he leaked or authorized media leaks. Newly declassified @FBIDirectorKash records reveal @Comey was at the heart of a strategic media leak strategy to shape the Russia collusion narrative and shape glowing coverage of the former FBI Director’s controversial leadership. In 2020, Comey was asked about the accuracy of his 2017 testimony, and he said, “I stand by the testimony.” https://x.com/C__Herridge/status/1955810062120681868 @alx: James Comey’s son-in-law Troy Edwards has resigned from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of Virginia after the indictment of former FBI Director. https://x.com/alx/status/1971363143818600648 Moscow envoy threatens war if NATO shoots down Russian aircraft U.S. President Donald Trump has said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft violating their airspace, a statement welcomed by many eastern members… https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/moscow-envoy-threatens-war-nato-150137001.html Fed Balance Sheet: -$202m; Reserves: -$71.137B Today is a crapshoot. The probability of fewer rate cuts plus Q3 portfolio rebalancing that mandates equity selling are the negatives. The Friday Rally and manipulation to boost Q3 equity performance, particularly the over-owned Mag 7 and AI-related stocks, are the positives. ESUs are +2.50; NQUs are -1.00; Dec AU is +5.10; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:13 ET. Expected economic data: Aug Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Spending 0.5%, PCE Price Index 0.3% m/m & 2/7% y/y, Core PCE 0.2% m/m & 2.9% y/y; Sept UM Sentiment 55.4, Current Conditions 61.3, Expectations 52, 1-yr Inflation 4.8%, 5-10-yr Inflation 3.9% Fed Speakers: Richmond Pres Barkin 9 ET, Gov. Bowman 13:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6453; 100-day MA: 6227; 150-day MA: 6012; 200-day MA: 6012 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,110; 100-day MA: 43,916; 150-day MA: 43,072; 200-day MA: 43,238 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6604.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5506.00 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6374.34 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6577.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6644.97 triggers a sell signal @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Wondering if Maybe They Should Stop Saying the Things Assassins Are Having Engraved on Bullets https://t.co/KJZQfTw5ZM @BreitbartNews: MSNBC Analyst Christopher O’Leary admits the attack on ICE is left-wing terrorism — and says the solution is for the Trump admin to change its policies… give the terrorists what they want. “Politically motivated [terrorism]… happens because conditions have been set that people start acting out against… the militarization of ICE and other federal law enforcement, the wearing of the masks, the aggressive tactics. So, the people who are starting to act out against this feel it’s their only recourse. Again, this is predictable. We see this happening throughout our history and in other places as well. So, we can tone down the rhetoric, and that’s the right message. But you also have to start looking at what policies you’ve implemented and what tactics you’re using, because, if you tone down the rhetoric, but you leave those other pieces in place, nothing’s going to change.” When asked by anchor Katy Tur: “How do you stop the next person from doing this?” O’Leary replies: “The first thing is, you take the underlying drivers away.” https://x.com/BreitbartNews/status/1971197473856094360 Trump warns ‘radical left’ Democrats’ ‘games’ could backfire after ICE Dallas attack: ‘Won’t take it anymore’ – Trump on Thursday went on to say, “Bad things happen when they play these games,” though he did not elaborate on what he meant. Trump warned that the “right is a lot tougher than the left,” while also stressing that he does not want to see people on either side of the aisle “energized” by violence… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-warns-radical-left-democrats-games-could-backfire-after-ice-dallas-attack-wont-take-anymore Trump delicately warned Dems that if they keep provoking violence against their political foes, they will eventually suffer retribution. @libsoftiktok on Wednesday: JB Pritzker demonized ICE, says ICE arresting criminal illegal aliens is the same as “Nazi Germany.“ Today an anti-ICE lunatic shot up an ICE facility. Any comment @JBPritzker? https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1971012911771550160 Justice Dept. Official Pushes Prosecutors to Investigate George Soros’s Foundation – NYT A senior Justice Department official has instructed more than a half dozen U.S. attorney’s offices to draft plans to investigate a group funded by George Soros… Possible charges included racketeering, arson, wire fraud and material support for terrorism, according to a copy of the directive… https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/us/politics/justice-trump-george-soros-foundation.html The “Stochastic Terror” (“ideologically driven hate speech”) Lie November 14, 2022 The Left’s latest gambit for suppressing speech is built on preposterous grounds… Under the concept of “stochastic terrorism,” logic, evidence, and causality are irrelevant. Any incident of violence can be politicized and attributed to any ideological opponent, regardless of facts… The statistical concept of “stochasticity,” which means “randomly determined,” functions as a catch-all: the activists don’t have to prove causality—they simply assert it with a sophisticated turn of phrase and a vague appeal to probability…left-wing media, activists, and officials apply the “stochastic terrorism” designation only in one direction: rightward… https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-stochastic-terror-lie @FBIDirectorKash: @FBIDallas and FBI HQ have been working 24/7 to seize devices, exploit data, and process writings obtained on location and in the subject’s (Dallas Ice shooter) person/residence/bedroom. This @FBIis committed to providing timely updates, as promised: – The perp downloaded a document titled “Dallas County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management” containing a list of DHS facilities. – He conducted multiple searches of ballistics and the “Charlie Kirk Shot Video” between 9/23-9/24. -Between 8/19-8/24, he searched apps that tracked the presence of ICE agents. – One of the handwritten notes recovered read, “Hopefully this will give ICE agents real terror, to think, ‘is there a sniper with AP rounds on that roof?” – Further accumulated evidence to this point indicates a high degree of pre-attack planning. Fresno’s (CA) firefighters are getting bulletproof vests https://www.yourcentralvalley.com/news/local-news/fresno-firefighters-bulletproof-vests/ Dems, leftists, and the media are going out of their minds because ‘they’ don’t’ get why the masses elected Trump twice despite disliking him. ‘They’ cannot handle the truth! Most Americans endure Trump’s distastefulness because they believe Dem policies are more offensive and pernicious! As Ann Coulter noted years ago, “Americans want Trumpism without Trump!” This dynamic is due to Americans’ disgust for GOPe and leftist Dems’ policies. Chicago budget rises over 2X faster than other big cities Chicago outpaces many of America’s biggest cities with a 62% spending spike since 2019… Chicago faces a $1.15 billion projected deficit in 2026, and the city’s budget task force’s answer is $1.6 billion in new tax hikes… Chicago’s total expenditures have increased by nearly $7 billion, up 62% from 2019… https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chicago-budget-rises-over-2x-faster-than-other-big-cities/ @EricLDaugh: Scandal ERUPTS in New Jersey 2025 governor’s race – Democrat Mikie Sherrill was banned from walking with her Naval Academy class due to her participation in a “MASSIVE CHEATING SCANDAL” that implicated over 130 midshipmen. Sherrill DECLINED to allow the New Jersey Globe inspect “any” disciplinary records from her time at the US Naval Academy. JACK CIATTARELLI: “For eight years, Mikie Sherrill has built her entire political brand around her time at the Naval Academy and in the Navy, all the while concealing her involvement in the scandal and her punishment. The people of New Jersey deserve complete and total transparency.” Keith Olbermann needs ‘serious help’ and was fired from ‘every job he’s had’: ex-colleagues https://trib.al/yvpEZwY ‘Every Single Moment of Pregnancy Is a Critical Time’: HHS Official Responds to Women Popping Tylenol to Spite Trump https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/09/25/every-single-moment-pregnancy-is-critical-time-hhs-official-responds-women-popping-tylenol-spite-trump/ | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Cook is unqualified and a DEI hire. She must go
(zerohedge)
Lisa Cook Tells Supreme Court There Will Be Market “Chaos And Disruption” If She Is Fired
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 – 09:39 PM
What do you do when you are highly underqualified for your job, which you plagiarized to get in the first place, and on top of it all you broke the law and now your current boss doesn’t want you any more? Well, you sue of course… and if that doesn’t work, you claim that the world will end if you are let go.
Yes, that’s the traditional flowchart for government DEI hires, it’s also what Fed governor Lisa Cook is doing as she fights tooth and nail to say on at the Fed.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s attorneys urged the US Supreme Court to let her stay on the job while she fights President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her, warning that even her temporary removal risks “chaos and disruption” in financial markets.
Granting the Justice Department’s request to allow Trump to immediately oust her “would sound the death knell for the central-bank independence that has helped make the United States’ economy the strongest in the world,” her lawyers wrote in a brief filed Thursday.
Or maybe just keep your client from breaking the law? Of course, since that’s impossible, you go straight to the apocalypse that will follow should Trump get to say his favorite phrase.
In her brief, Cook’s lawyers claim that Trump should have no authority to fire her, and that as of 2023, “only 12 nations with central banks allow the removal of central-bank board members at the executive’s discretion for policy reasons or for no reason at all.” Those 12 nations are Bangladesh, Chile, China, Comoros, Iran, Kazakhstan, Laos, Morocco, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, and Vietnam.
Well, the US will make it 13.
The DOJ has asked the Supreme Court to let Trump remove Cook, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, who has continued serving in her post since late August when Trump announced he would remove her due to mortgage fraud allegations that she’s denied.
The Supreme Court set a fast schedule for written briefs in the case but hasn’t signaled precisely when it intends to rule.
In the new filing, Cook’s lawyers argued that the Justice Department’s delay in asking for Supreme Court intervention until after the Fed’s last policy meeting on Sept. 16-17 was a possible sign the administration “understood the chaos” that might unleash in markets. It also undercut the government’s demand for “immediate relief,” according to the filing.
Cook’s brief cites a 2009 law review article in which then-Judge Brett Kavanaugh discussed how the Fed is insulated from direct presidential control because of its “power to directly affect the short-term functioning of the US economy.” Kavanaugh, now a Supreme Court justice, will be a pivotal vote in the case.
The largely conservative Supreme Court this year has largely sided with Trump in fights over his firings of other federal agency officials, but the justices previously made a point of distinguishing the Fed as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity.” A key question with Cook is whether the court will apply that distinction in a case involving alleged wrongdoing by a Fed official, albeit before she was appointed to her post.
Cook’s theatrical filing came hours after she won the support of a bipartisan group of former Treasury secretaries, former Federal chairs and other experts who all signed a letter in the docket, backing her case with the justices. The group, which includes former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen – the people directly responsible for America’s catastrophic debt load – said allowing Trump to oust Cook while she challenges her removal would do lasting damage to the public’s trust in the Fed while jeopardizing the credibility and efficacy of US monetary policy.
As if anyone believes the Federal “Inflation is transitory” Reserve has credibility, especially after it slashed rates 50bps 2 months before the 2024 election to ensure that Kamala Harris is elected. As for the letter, it’s not the first time we have seen 51 former officials bend over backwards and trample their reputation, just to lie just to perpetuate the broken status quo.
Trump said last month he was firing Cook after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte accused her of fraudulently listing homes in Michigan and Georgia as a “primary residence” when she obtained mortgages in 2021 to secure more favorable terms on loans.
Cook’s lawyers have said the allegations are part of a “smear campaign” aimed at discrediting Cook and helping Trump seize control of the Fed, which he has pressured for months to lower interest rates. They argued in the latest brief to the Supreme Court that “fundamental flaws” in the mortgage fraud claims “have already come to light,” citing media reports that she “properly declared her Michigan home as her principal residence” and “accurately described the Georgia property in question as a vacation home.”
“When that record is compiled, it will demonstrate that Governor Cook never acted improperly with respect to her mortgages and thus will eliminate the president’s stated ground for his purported removal,” her lawyers wrote.
A month ago, Cook filed a lawsuit in federal court in Washington to block her dismissal, arguing Trump’s unproven claims about mortgage fraud do not amount to “cause” under US law for firing her, and that her purported dismissal via social media post deprived her of her constitutional right to due process.
Shortly after, her sorority sister, US District Judge Jia Cobb on Sept. 9 ruled that Cook could remain on the job as her case proceeded, saying that Trump’s attempt to oust her likely violated the law. A divided federal appeals court upheld the ruling on Sept. 15, just hours before the start of the Fed’s highly anticipated two-day meeting to vote on interest rates.
The officials lowered their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. One year ago they lowered the rate by half a percentage point when the economy was in stronger shape and when inflation was hotter. However, back then the Fed was also tasked with helping elected Kamala Harris. It failed.
end
We hope that Trump does not give in to this monstrosity
(zerohedge)
The Obamacare Sweeteners Poisoning Budget Negotiations
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 08:45 AM
Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,
Halloween could come early this year. The Democrats have named their price to avoid a government shutdown come October – an additional $350 billion for healthcare over the next decade. Critics say a big chunk of that money may go to ghosts.
At issue are the generous subsidies the Biden administration created for Affordable Care Act policies, sweeteners that are slated to expire in December. Making healthcare essentially free for millions of Americans, those policies have skyrocketed enrollment in Obamacare plans. But a recent study found they have also sparked a curious phenomenon: an estimated 12 million enrollees “without a single claim – no doctor visit, lab test, or prescription filled” in 2024.
The Paragon Health Institute study reports that this is triple the number of no-claim policyholders before the Biden sweeteners were put in place. “Among those now eligible for zero-premium plans with low or no deductible,” the study found, “that number increased nearly sevenfold. … A whopping 40 percent of enrollees in fully subsidized plans had no claims in 2024. In 2024 alone, taxpayers sent at least $35 billion to insurers for people who paid no premiums and never used their plan,” the report said.
Although many analysts suspect that these numbers suggest widespread fraud, Democrats and the insurance industry argue that they reflect consumers taking advantage of affordable coverage. They warn that the expiration of Biden-era reforms will make policies far more expensive for more than 20 million Americans. “If Congress fails to extend the health care tax credits, millions of Americans will face immediate and severe premium increases, leading many to forgo coverage altogether,” said Chris Bond, a spokesman for AHIP, the lobbying arm of the health insurance industry. “Congress must act as quickly as possible to protect Americans from this affordability crisis.”
As Democrats have made healthcare their line in the sand to avert a partial government shutdown on Oct. 1, Biden-era expansions of Obamacare are receiving new attention as a symbol of both expanding access to healthcare and of spending run amok.
Critics say they underscore the findings of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has highlighted a lack of accountability in massive government spending programs at a time when the federal government is struggling to corral massive deficits and debt. They say the Biden sweeteners also illustrate how and why government spending keeps increasing: Once a subsidy is put in place, it is hard to take it away from voters.
Swollen Rolls
The Obamacare expansion at issue came about through legislation and regulations during Biden’s term and was often cast as a response to the COVID pandemic. First, the scope of who was eligible for subsidies was broadened, making it available to households with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty line – making a family of four earning up to $160,000 eligible for subsidized plans. Also, increased subsidies made Obamacare free for those with incomes between 100% and 150% of the poverty line, and longer enrollment periods were created.
The cost for this, on the other hand, is borne by taxpayers.
“Biden’s COVID credits didn’t reduce health care costs – they just shifted them to taxpayers while padding insurer and enrollment intermediary profits,” Paragon President Brian Blase said.
Like all gigantic markets and massive government programs, the Affordable Care Act and what people pay each month have become a very complicated thing, varying by age, state, level of plan, and other factors. But the figures for the Obamacare “reference plan” (silver level) reveal what has happened since the COVID pandemic.
In 2021, when Biden was inaugurated, that basic plan cost an individual $27 a month if they reported income along the federal poverty line, which stood around $14,500 a year. For those making 50% more, the “reference plan” cost $75 a month, and so on up to $152 a month for someone making more than $30,000. Those monthly payment figures were constant regardless of what the insurers charged, with taxpayers making up the difference.
Through legislation Biden pushed through by narrow majorities or via reconciliation, the amount someone would pay each month in the first two categories dropped to zero. And as Obamacare became essentially free, millions signed up – enrolling at rates the plan had never seen since its inception in 2013.
The overall figures reflect this explosion. Between 2016 and 2020, an average of 8.5 million people signed up for a subsidized Obamacare policy each year, and in none of those years did the figure equal 9 million, according to the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
In 2021, however, the subsidized total topped 10 million, and by 2024 it had nearly doubled to 19.5 million, CMS figures show.
“It’s all counter-intuitive, that when enrollment isn’t being publicized, no one is out beating the bushes to get people enrolled like we had in the early years of Obamacare,” said Ed Haislmaier, a healthcare expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation. “Amazing, that a product’s sales would go through the roof when nobody was talking about it.”
Some analysts believe the numbers indicate rampant fraud. Blase claimed in a letter to the Wall Street Journal that the expansion has created an explosion of phantom patients – including 6.4 million of them so far in 2025. “The problem isn’t real people with coverage they don’t use – it’s fraudulent sign-ups who never should have been subsidized.”
Haislmaier agreed, “We don’t have an exact number for how many people might be fake, I don’t think anyone does,” said Ed Haislmaier, “What we do have is a lot of circumstantial evidence, a lot of data points, and a lot of information about how the markets have always operated to suggest there is massive fraud here.”
Feds Smell a Rat
Paragon is not the only group voicing concerns. It often seems like fraud is endemic in federal programs, and government healthcare appears to offer a rich vein for such activity.
In fact, CMS itself has warned of potentially rampant fraud and abuse sapping taxpayers through the revamped Obamacare exchanges. CMS focused on people unwittingly signed up for more than one plan, possibilities that multiplied when the Biden administration relaxed reviews of applicants and extended open enrollment periods.
CMS found in July that 2.8 million Americans were potentially enrolled “concurrently” in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP) in more than one state, or on one of those federal programs plus the Obamacare exchange, resulting in inexplicable overlaps that could cost taxpayers $14 billion a year.
CMS insists its analysis is helping identify such problems, and that it is working with states and exchanges to strengthen eligibility verification processes and clean up enrollment data. The Trump administration has instituted some safeguards, such as sending state Medicaid agencies and state-based exchanges a list of individuals with possible concurrent enrollments so they can cross-check appropriate eligibility.
Opponents of expanded subsidies note that when the government makes a deep pool of money available, as has happened with the ACA, fraud is sure to follow. In June, Bloomberg did a deep dive on the phenomenon, describing a rat’s nest of unscrupulous call centers, primarily based in Florida, that have lured people in with various gimmicks and then signed them up for subsidized plans.
What’s more, those licensed to sell plans had access to Obamacare exchange databases, which allowed them to change both the “agent of record” (thereby making themselves recipient of whatever bonus insurers paid for new signups), or the plan a person was enrolled in (thereby increasing their commission and the taxpayers’ bill), according to Gabrielle Kalisz, one of the authors of Paragon’s report.
Consequently, millions of Americans may be unaware that they own a subsidized Obamacare policy, and horror stories abound of unsuspecting people hit with tax bills seeking to recoup the subsidies.
“Nobody seems to have an incentive to be a good actor in the process,” Kalisz said. “The insurance companies are perfectly happy to keep getting the rising premiums, the navigators or agents are happy to keep getting the commissions, and Obamacare supporters are happy to act as if all this reflects people getting coverage.”
Nor are the so-called “phantom enrollees” the only issue. For example, the numbers don’t add up when percentages of state populations according to census data are measured against the Obamacare subsidies. Fourteen states have more people enrolled at up to 150% of the federal poverty line than they do residents who fit that category, and Florida’s total is five times what census data shows it could be.
“The enrollment fraud has become a massive problem,” said Michael Cannon, a healthcare expert at the libertarian Cato Institute. “The program has become like a great big ATM spitting out checks, and there’s very little policing going on because the government doesn’t care as much as it should about other people’s money.”
The new figures also diverge from what has been fairly consistent behavior in healthcare markets – another red flag, Haislmaier said. In 2019 and 2020, less than a quarter of policyholders never filed a claim. And the huge increase in so-called “phantom enrollees” doesn’t appear in market segments other than the now highly subsidized Obamacare plans.
Such figures make no sense if they reflected genuine people aware of what coverage they were enrolled in, and bogus enrollment activity offers a clear explanation.
“This whole situation has been ideal for the fraudster,” he said. “Now you’ve got more enrolled than are eligible, subsidized plans spiking and non-subsidized plans flat. These are just all indicators that there is something whacky going on here.”
Subsidies or Shutdown?
All of this is informing the partisan debate over healthcare and efforts to fund the government after the current fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.
Republicans, including some who got fabulously wealthy through the healthcare system, like Florida’s Sen. Rick Scott, have said extending the subsidies is ruinously expensive and foolhardy, given what has happened since they were introduced.
“COVID opened the door for massive waste, fraud, and abuse of government programs, like the billions in fraud and abuse allowed by the ‘temporary COVID’ enhanced Obamacare subsidies,” Scott posted last week. “Americans don’t want their tax dollars lining the pockets of insurance companies – it’s time to end this clear abuse of YOUR dollars.”
Scott drew attention to a Sept. 15 post by Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson that made much the same point: “Extending the ‘temporary COVID’ enhanced Obamacare subsidies would perpetuate fraudulent activity, sending billions of dollars to insurance companies for policies that people are unaware they’re enrolled in and do not use,” he posted.
On the other side are Democrats who make strange political bedfellows of the insurance industry. Some who traditionally oppose big business, such as Massachusetts’ Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Vermont’s socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, insist these recent subsidies must continue, preferably permanently. For them, the Obamacare rolls more than doubling – from 11.4 million to more than 24 million between 2020 and today – are a success sign of government-run healthcare.
Last week, Warren compared ending the subsidies to taking healthcare away from people.
“Still waiting to find out how Trump and Republicans think cutting health insurance for 15 million Americans makes America healthy again,” she posted on X Sept. 15.
Polls suggest support for government-subsidized healthcare is a partisan issue. Last November, Gallup reported that “ninety percent of Democrats say that the federal government is responsible for American healthcare coverage, while 65% of Independents hold the same view. Although only 32% of Republicans share that opinion.” Another survey found that among those receiving subsidies, people who voted for Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one.
Insurers say the Paragon study was flawed and accused the think tank of misunderstanding how insurance works. It’s not unusual for homeowners or car insurance policy holders to go years without filing a claim, and the same could be true with healthcare, they say. According to the industry and Democrats, the ballooning numbers reflect a thriving market in which many more Americans are enjoying healthcare coverage, as stated in a rebuttal released by AHIP on Aug. 15.
The debate will come to a head in the next week or so. President Trump this week rejected a meeting with congressional Democrats whose spending ideas he derided as fantastical. Republicans want to let the subsidies expire; Democrats want to make them permanent.
Of course, that leaves some wiggle room, such as extending the subsidies for another year or some set period of time, a kicking-the-can option long favored by Congress. There have been some indications in the past several days that, public intransigence notwithstanding, negotiations might be ongoing.
Whatever the outcome, large subsidies that have always been part of Obamacare will continue. For all the hue and cry about rising costs, the elimination of Biden-era sweeteners would simply return the system to the way it was operating before 2021, Kalisz said.
“It’s crony math, a kind of corporate welfare,” she told RealClearInvestigations. “Why are the insurers now making it seem like all the subsidies are going away? It’s a form of scaring and spooking the public.”
END
Florida Teen Reported Shot, Kidnapped By ‘4 Hispanics’ – May Have Been Wearing MAGA Hat
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 12:00 PM
A story is developing out of Marion County, North Central Florida, where a 17-year-old boy named Caden Speight, who was allegedly wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat, went missing Thursday after reportedly being shot and abducted by “Hispanics in a light-colored van,” according to local media.
The Florida Department of Law Enforcement issued a statewide Amber Alert on Thursday for Speight, who was reportedly shot and abducted by “four unknown males, possibly Hispanic” in Dunnellon, Marion County, about 80 miles northwest of Orlando. Police have found Speight’s truck but have not yet located him.
According to local media outlet 352today:
Investigators say he may be traveling with four unknown males, possibly Hispanic, in a light-colored van. Local reporting adds he may have been wearing a red “Make America Great Again” hat at the time of disappearance.
The Independent…
Another local outlet, WCJB, cited a Facebook post from Speight’s family that included a message from Caden: “I need help. Four Hispanics in a white van, one driver. I’m shot.”
Images of Caden’s truck.
The question becomes whether this is a cartel-style abduction… Remember, certain cartels have been designated foreign terrorist organizations
END
HUMOUR JASMIN CROCKET
AND HER VARIOUS ACCENTS
Watch: Jasmine Crockett’s Signature Accent Vanishes Live On MSNBC
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 01:20 PM
Something strange has happened with Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas).
For years, Crockett has spoken with what some described as a “ghetto accent.”
Yet in her latest MSNBC interview about the Comey indictments, her ‘ghetto’ accent appeared to revert to her normal voice.
In fact, she’s back to her 2019 self…
This raises the question: Were her past ghetto outbursts simply a performative act, revealing her not as a genuine politician but as a leftist puppet?
Perhaps.
*END
Sex Dungeon? Former Soros Fund Manager Arrested On Allegations Of ‘Sadistic Abuse’
Friday, Sep 26, 2025 – 03:40 PM
A former New York financier who managed money for George Soros has been arrested on charges spanning bank fraud to sex trafficking.
Howard Rubin, 70, was taken into custody Friday morning at his home in Fairfield, Connecticut. According to a 10-count indictment unsealed in a Brooklyn federal court, Rubin is accused of sex-trafficking at least 10 women between 2009 and 2019 – luring them to various NYC hotels and a Manhattan penthouse with a soundproofed BDSM sex dungeon – where he restrained, beat, and shocked them with electricity, according to the US Attorney’s Office in Brooklyn.
Rubin reportedly spent at least $1 million on said activities. He has also been charged with bank fraud related to false statements on financial documents during a civil lawsuit stemming from these activities.
“As alleged, the defendants used Rubin’s wealth to mislead and recruit women to engage in commercial sex acts, where Rubin then tortured women beyond their consent, causing lasting physical and/or psychological pain, in some cases physical injuries,” Brooklyn US Attorney Joseph Nocella said in a statement.
One of the West 57th Street penthouse bedrooms was soundproofed and painted red, and had a device that was used to shock or electrocute the women, the feds said. The room also had a cross and bed with restraints where the women would be bound and gagged, according to the authorities. -NY Post
Allegations against Rubin are not new, as he’s been on the radar since at least 2017. Among the alleged acts he paid $2,000 – $5,000 per session (via the NY Post);
- Rubin gagged, tied up and viciously abused the women – even punching one in the head, according to a 2017 lawsuit filed on behalf of two Playboy Playmates and another alleged victim.
“I’m going to rape you like I rape my daughter,” he reportedly shouted during one of the alleged assaults.
- In one session, he beat one of the women’s “breasts so badly that her right implant flipped.”
- One plaintiff was tied up, gagged and shocked with a cattle prod in her groin before Rubin allegedly raped her
Some of the women agreed to a safe word – that Rubin allegedly ignored. Others were gagged so they couldn’t object, and prosecutors say he would even continue if a woman passed out.
- “I don’t care if she screams,” Rubin wrote one of two women who he said he planed to “abuse” for hours, the feds allege.
Rubin also reportedly referenced Disney movies (like Jes Staley with Epstein), telling another alleged victim that rape was natural – referencing “Beauty and the Beast” (though in the movie Belle was clearly ready to have sex with Beast before he turned back into a human).
From 2009–2019; Rubin initially used luxury Manhattan hotels, then a leased the ‘sex dungeon’ penthouse. There were also encounters in Las Vegas.
Personal Assistant
According to the indictment, Rubin’s personal assistant – Jennifer Powers, is also facing sex-trafficking charges tied to her boss’s proclivities. Powers Assisted Rubin from 2011–2019. Her role allegedly included recruiting women (often former Playboy models via social media or prostitution networks), arranging flights and accommodations (e.g., to New York airports in Queens), securing NDAs, procuring BDSM equipment, managing payments (sometimes structured to avoid $10,000 thresholds), and handling complaints/injuries (e.g., advising ice or bruise cream, minimizing Rubin’s behavior). Rubin funded her lifestyle – some $8 million from 2018–2023 – including rent, schooling, legal fees, and a Texas home mortgage he co-signed.
In one text exchange, Rubin allegedly texted Powers that he had a woman tied to his cross, to which Powers replied “I can only imagine what you did to her on that cross!!! Did you shock her p—y??”
Rubin reportedly replied that he did, but complained that his electrocution device was “losing strength.”
Bank Fraud
On June 3, 2020, Rubin emailed a signed financial statement to co-sign Powers’ mortgage, answering “No” to “Are you a party to any suit or unsatisfied judgments?” despite the ongoing Civil Case brought by the Playmates.
Then on April 4, 2022, Powers emailed a renewed statement signed by Rubin which also did not disclose the lawsuit.
Here’s lookin’ at you Howard, you (allegedly) sick fuck.
GREG HUNTER..
SEE YOU ON MONDAY
H.
harveyorganblog.com 
