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072 C GOLDMAN 1
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 53
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 19
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 130
132 C SG AMERICAS 5
167 H MAREX 18
323 C HSBC 18
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 75
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 162
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 11
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 28
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 560
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 84 3
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 17 2
709 C BARCLAYS 10
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 655
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 38
880 C CITIGROUP 6
880 H CITIGROUP 329
905 C ADM 18
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 1121 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 112100 OZ or 3.486 TONNES
total notices so far: 22,379 contracts for 2,237,900 OR 69.608tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 172 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.860 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2405 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 12.025 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 13.240 MILLION OZ PLUS 585,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 13.805 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 3.00 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 13.805 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING PLUS 1.555 TONNES OF OUR FIRST ISSUANCE EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTALS 91.567 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 10.2208 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FALL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 23,717 CONTRACTS OI TO 163,830 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 600 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 600 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 640 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2337 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 600 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1737 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.34 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.685 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS $0.34 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 381.78PTS OR 0.85% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.01%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1251/ Oil DOWN TO 62.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 65.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 23,717 CONTRACTS TO 494,340 OI DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.95 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3286). WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY ALONG WITH MASSIVE MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 20,431 CONTRACTS (OR 63.548 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, THAT WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. WE HAD 500 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR THEM AS THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND MUST BE DESPERATE!!
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER:
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD.
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 118 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 34 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 118 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN DECEMBER 2024.
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,431 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 1.5% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER/OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1401 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSES TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO YESTERDAY, FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORTED PAPER ISSUANCE
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS WERE JOINED WITH LIQUIDATION OF MONTH- END SPREADERS YESTERDAY AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSSES IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//THUS TOTAL AMOUNT STANDING ON GOLD INITIAL EQUATES TO 91,719 TONNES!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 242 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK TOTALS 91.719 TONNES
I.E.
a) INITIAL STANDING 91.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
EQUALS
91.719 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3286 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 3286 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3286 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY AND THIS HAD A HUGE EFFECT ON OUR TOTAL OPEN INTEREST.
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW COME INTO THE PICTURE AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE YESTERDAY AS WE WITNESS THE HUGE FALL IN OPEN INTEREST. STRANGELY IT HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE AS IT ROSE BY $18.95
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1401 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING MASSIVE LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 510 CONTRACTS OR 51,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONES OF GOLD.
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY OUR INITIAL 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD EX FOR RISK/TOTALS 91.164 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $18.95./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MASSIVE SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD MASSIVE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY ALONG WITH SPREADER LIQUIDATION.THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION) /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES (WHICH WERE JOINED BY OUR MONTHLY SPREADERS) NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS ARE TRYING AGAIN TODAY WITH NOT MUCH LUCK, YESTERDAY ON THIS LAST DAY OF SEPT. OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK, THEY FAILED LIKE THEY DID IN AUGUST. (LBMA LONDON EXPIRY FINISHED YESTERDAY TUESDAY SEPT 30).
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS SOCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS TOTAL OF 63.548 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES AND THIS WAS COUPLED STRANGELY WITH OUR INITIAL 50,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE//1.555 TONNES/NEW TOTAL INITIAL STANDING FOR OCTOBER: 91.719 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.95
WE HAD A LARGE 592 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 20,431 CONTRACTS OR 2,043,100 0Z (63.548TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 336,239 contracts// strong//
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 1 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 entries i) Out of Asahi 16,020.280 oz ii) Out of Brinks 14,660.856 oz total withdrawal: 30,681.136 oz in tonnage: 0.9543 tonnes . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis: 64,026.230 oz total deposit dealer: 64,026.230 oz (1.991 tonnes) |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks customer account: 27,899.440oz total deposit 27,899.440 OZ in tonnes: .867 tonnes total tonnage dealer and customer: 2.858 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1121 notice(s) 112,100 OZ 3.486 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 6560 contracts 656,000OZ 20.406 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 22,379 notices 2,237,900 oz 69.608 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 64,026.230 oz
total deposit dealer: 64,026.230 oz
(1.991 tonnes)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks customer account: 27,899.440oz
total deposit 27,899.440 OZ
in tonnes: .867 tonnes
total tonnage dealer and customer: 2.858 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
2 entries
i) Out of Asahi 16,020.280 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 14,660.856 oz
total withdrawal: 30,681.136 oz
in tonnage: 0.9543 tonnes
ADJUSTMENTs 3
customer to dealer
a) Asahi 32,021.838 oz
b) Loomis: 3182.949 oz
dealer to customer:
c) Brinks
385.812 oz
volume at the comex: TUESDAY: 336,239 oz (strong)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 7681 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 21,307 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 21,258 CONTRACTS FILED YESTERDAY. SO WE LOST A SMALL 49 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 4900 OZ UNDERWENT AN EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND!
NOVEMBER LOST 16 CONTRACTS UP TO 4418 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 4858 CONTRACTS UP TO 401,185 CONTRACTS.
We had 1121 contracts filed for today representing 112,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to1121 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 560 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,379 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 7681 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1121 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,893,900 OZ OR 90.012 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR INITIAL 1.555 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER REDUCES TO 91.567 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (22379 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (7681 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1121 x 100 oz) which equals 2,893,900 OZ OR 90.012 TONNES + 1.555 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTALS; 91.567 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 91.567 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,023,569.112 oz 62.94 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 40,105,920.360 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 22,072.364 or 686.53 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,033,556.221 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 20,048,795oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 623.607 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 1 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries a) Out of CNT 1000.000 b) Out of Delaware 2074.100 oz total withdrawal: 3074.100 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entry i) Into Asahi: 589,145.900 oz total deposit: 589,145.900 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 172 CONTRACT(S) ( 860,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 356 contracts (1.780 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2405 Contracts (12.025 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entry
i) Into Asahi: 589,145.900 oz
total deposit: 589,145.900 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
a) Out of CNT 1000.000
b) Out of Delaware 2074.100 oz
total withdrawal: 3074.100 oz
adjustments: all customer to dealer
a) Brinks 4729.100 oz
b) Loomis 184,878.540 oz oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 193.692 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 530.786 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 528 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2116 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2233 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 117 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 585,000 OZ
STANDING FOR SILVER OCT: 13.805 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS UP TO 2295
DECEMBER LOST 775 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 132,230
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 172 or 860,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 109.435 huge//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2405 X5,000 oz = 12.025MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (528) AND the number of notices served upon today (172 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (2405) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(528) minus number of notices served upon today (172)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 13.805 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 13.805 million oz which is STILL HUGE for this NON active delivery month of OCT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 193.692 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/530.786million. 39.57%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1012.88 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 504.287 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
JAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Who owns all the gold?
For the last four decades, China has been cornering the physical gold market. Now that the West is turning bullish, where will the gold come from?
| Alasdair MacleodOct 1∙Paid |
The sums concerned at this stage of gold’s bull market are staggering. Large American banks manage portfolios worth trillions, and their analysts are belatedly turning bullish on gold. Already, demand for ETFs is picking up, and mining indices have doubled this year from depressed levels. A tsunami of currency is just beginning to roll gold’s way. But where is the gold going to come from?
You may need to read this article twice for its implications to sink in.
China has cornered the market
The problem with analysing gold ownership is that those that own it don’t want to be identified — whether it be individuals concealing their wealth, or entire governments for economic or geopolitical reasons. And since the death of Mao, if not before, China has been Hotel California for gold: gold flows in freely but never leaves.
Before the Shanghai Gold Exchange was opened for business in 2002, private individuals were banned from gold ownership. Yet it was clear that before then the state’s gold policy was to develop gold mining, turning China into the largest global miner by far and doré was also imported for refining by state-owned refineries from elsewhere, never to leave.
The regulations appointing the Peoples Bank (PBOC) with sole responsibility for gold and silver date from 1983. At that time, gold was in the early stages of its massive post-seventies bear market, so supplies from disillusioned Western investors were readily available at declining prices — ideal conditions for concealing a large, dedicated buyer.
Additionally, bullion was being leased and sold into the market by hedge funds to fund a carry trade into US T-bills, estimated by analyst Frank Veneroso to have amounted to between 10,000 and 14,000 tonnes by the year 2002. Veneroso quipped that this bullion was probably adorning the necks of Asian women. More likely, it was quietly being picked up by the PBOC.
The PBOC had monopoly responsibility for foreign exchange dealings, so it was a simple matter to divert a portion of these substantial capital and trade flows into purchases of gold. Bearing in mind that contemporary prices declined from about $430 to $260 per ounce between 1983-2002, only 10% of these net currency flows would have led to the acquisition of between 20,000-25,000 tonnes, secretly distributed between various government accounts.[i] This is not to be confused with the PBOC’s own gold reserves.
Whatever the actual amount, the Chinese leadership decided that they had accumulated sufficient gold to allow the public, hitherto banned, to buy gold. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was opened for that purpose in 2002. However, it is clear that the state continued to accumulate gold when it was offered by Western markets and refiners.
Between 1983 and 2002, above-ground stocks of gold increased from 91,916 tonnes to 132,976 tonnes. With the additional supply from disillusioned investors in the West, it was certainly possible for China to accumulate gold on this scale.
We cannot know how much gold has been additionally accumulated by the state since 2002. Import-export statistics only cover non-monetary gold. All China needs to do is to categorise it as monetary for it not to be recorded. But given the increased pace of global mine production, and global scrap supplies together with her own mine output of 7,578 tonnes since 2002, a further accumulation of 15,000—20,000 tonnes of state-owned gold is easily conceivable.
There are two other sources of Chinese demand to account for. Since 2002, Chinese citizens have withdrawn 27,300 tonnes from SGE vaults, mostly turned into jewellery. Secondly, the banks offer gold accumulation accounts alongside deposits, which together with other investment schemes are backed by gold remaining in the SGE’s vaults. Given that household savings are estimated at over 30% of GDP (about $5 trillion equivalent), that these funds are no longer buying into off-plan property development, and that banks have been reducing deposit account rates, it seems reasonable to suggest that some 10,000 tonnes of investment gold have accumulated in SGE vaults since 2002, probably at an increasing pace.
New global mine supply over the 2002-2024 period was over 65,000 tonnes, exceeding our figure for total Chinese demand by about 10,000 tonnes. Given subdued demand from other markets, as a ballpark figure Chinese demand amounting to 55,000 tonnes seems reasonably close to the mark.
Putting all this together, our estimate for Chinese owned gold today totals 75,500 tonnes, including the PBOC’s reserves. It has been accumulated at an average rate of about 1,800 tonnes a year
Above ground stocks today are estimated at 198,094 tonnes, based on a paper prepared for Goldmoney by James Turk and Spanish economist Juan Castañeda in 2012 and updated by subsequent mine output. It is our source for accumulating above ground annually. This is some 20,000 tonnes less than other estimates, such as that of the WGC/GFMS. But we believe the Goldmoney calculation to be more accurate.
China’s total stake therefore represents 38% of all above-ground stock, probably over 40% allowing for gold which has been lost over the centuries.
Our estimate of China’s holdings are summarised in the table below.
We can develop our analysis even further, given that China together with Russia has extended her sphere of influence across nearly all Asia, Africa, and elsewhere. This is gold unlikely to be available to Western markets.
So far, we have accounted for 115,100 tonnes, or 58% of above-ground stocks. They do not include SCO and BRICS sovereign wealth funds other than Russia’s two funds.
The balance of 82,994 tonnes of above-ground gold is split between other central banks (27,668 tonnes), LBMA vaults and Comex warehouses (10,075 tonnes) reducing the unaccounted total to 45,251 tonnes. We cannot find any estimate for total gold storage in Switzerland, which would probably leave our unaccounted total at less than 45,000 tonnes.
Apart from gold lost through time, the bulk of this remainder will be held as jewellery in Western markets so is inherently illiquid.
Conclusion
This survey of gold ownership is purely indicative, with very little verifiable information available. Its objective is to arrive at a rough estimate of liquidity in bullion markets by identifying gold not available to markets.
This is important, given that portfolio exposure to gold in ETFs and vaulted bullion is currently estimated at only 0.5%. Portfolio managers are now looking at gold as a possible investment. Global portfolios are estimated to total $300 trillion, so at current prices an increase of 1% allocation amounts to nearly 25,000 tonnes.
Clearly, there is insufficient liquidity in bullion markets to satisfy demand even on a minor scale. With investment strategists at large US banks forecasting higher prices, should investment managers act on it gold prices would be driven significantly higher, irrespective of economic and credit factors.
It is a process which appears to be only just starting, with potentially spectacular consequences.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 242/ROBERT KIENTZ
5. COMMODITY REPORT LITHIUM
US Government Takes 10% Stake In Lithium Americas
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Trump’s Industrial Economy policies just took down their latest scalp, so to speak.
One week after Bloomberg reported that the White House was considering a 10% stake in one of the largest North American lithium mining companies, Lithium Americas, on Tuesday afternoon, the US government agreed to acquire a stake in the company, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said Tuesday on Bloomberg TV, giving a boost to the Canadian company as it develops its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada.
The deal is the Trump administration’s latest effort to speed development of a domestic supply chain to counter China’s dominance over metals critical to defense, automaking and consumer electronics. In July, the US Defense Department announced a $400 million equity investment in MP Materials Corp. to fund a major new plant making rare-earth magnets.It was followed by a similar deal with chip giant Intel.
Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project in Nevada is forecast to become a major lithium source for a domestic industry that currently produces only small amounts of the battery metal.
Lithium Americas, which produces minerals used in electric-vehicle batteries, is also in talks with automaker General Motors over the terms of its $2.26 billion government loan for a large lithium mining project it is developing in Nevada.
Those discussions included debating whether the U.S. should take a stake in Lithium Americas as a condition for receiving a loan, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month.
The US-listed shares of Lithium Americas have risen 92% this year and soared 32% to $7.53 in after-hours trading Tuesday.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 381.78PTS OR 0.85% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.01%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1251/ Oil DOWN TO 62.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 65.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN HOLIDAY IN TRADING AT XXXX AND XXXX//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1251 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED HOLIDAY
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1251
HANG SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 381.75 PTS OR 0.85%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 97.30 EURO RISES TO 1.1752 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.641//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.12…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.151 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7326Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.582 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.277
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.417
3j Gold at $3886.70 Silver at: 47.23 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 76 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.13
3m oil (WTI) into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.96/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.652% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.141 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7958 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9348 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.152 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.745 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.600 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.59 UP 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7230 UP 2 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.527 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.185 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.749 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop, Gold Jumps As US Government Shutdown Begins
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 08:14 AM
US stock futures are weaker to start the new quarter but have cut overnight losses by more than a third, as the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years begins. The first shutdown during Trump 1.0 lasted 3 days and the second shutdown 35 days: how long will this one last? As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, but well off session lows while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%. Gold futures, up almost 1%, continue their advance toward $4,000. Pre-mkt, we are seeing a risk-off tone in US assets, including USD weakness, helping buttress international markets where Eurostoxx 50 set a new intraday ATH led by health care and communication sectors. Mag7 names are mostly lower with Semis also pressured; NKE gains 3% post solid earnings. The yield curve is twisting steeper. Commodities are weaker ex-Precious Metals with silver outperforming gold. With Friday’s NFP release all but certain to be delayed, ADP takes on heightened importance today; we also receive ISM-Mfg, construction spending, vehicle sales, and mtge applications.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all lower (Apple -0.3%, Amazon -0.7%, Tesla -0.3%, Nvidia -0.5%, Alphabet -0.7%, Meta Platforms -0.7%, Microsoft -0.7%)
- AES Corp. (AES) rises 14% as BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners LP is in advanced talks to acquire the power company, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Corteva (CTVA) inches 1% higher after announcing plans to separate into two independent companies, one comprising its current crop protection business and the other its current seed business.
- Lithium Americas (LAC) rises 32% after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told Bloomberg TV that the US government agreed to acquire a stake in the company.
- Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) falls 2.5% after TD Cowen cut its recommendation on the chipmaker to hold from buy, citing limited visibility in a key vertical.
- Nike (NKE) climbs 3% after the sneaker retailer reported first-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, a sign its focus around specific sports such as running and basketball are starting to pay off.
- Sunrun Inc. (RUN) rises 5% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the solar energy company to buy, citing cash and growth potential.
- Veeco Instruments (VECO) rises 4% after announcing plans to merge with Axcelis Technologies (ACLS). Axcelis falls 1.7%.
In corporate news, Apple says it did nothing wrong in choosing to partner with OpenAI — rather than Musk’s xAI — when it added generative AI to its iPhone operating system. Goldman Sachs is said to be among a cohort of financial firms planning to open offices in Kuwait. Lithium Americas shares surged after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told Bloomberg TV that the US government agreed to acquire a stake in the company.
The US government shut down after a midnight funding deadline as Trump and Congressional Democrats clashed over health-care spending. With important economic reports now on hold, traders fear the loss of visibility will leave markets in the dark on the outlook for monetary policy. Fiona Boal, global head of equities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said investor concern would focus on how long the shutdown may last, the disruption to economic data and potential job cuts.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that about 750,000 employees will be furloughed at a cost per day of $400 million in lost compensation. The Trump administration’s plan to fire federal workers outright could also drive jobless claims higher at a time when employment already looks fragile.
“Government shutdowns in the US are rarely market-moving in and of themselves, but the timing matters,” said Nina Stanojevic, investment specialist at St James’s Place. “This one comes at a point where the Fed is data dependent. The absence of clean data can increase volatility.”
While the next Federal Reserve meeting is still four weeks away, policymakers might have to make decisions on an unclear picture, with the labor market softening and inflation hovering above target.
“In that case, a rate cut is likely to happen, but the uncertainty may lead to a change in expectations and increased volatility,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. Money markets are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut this month, and almost a 70% probability of another by year-end.
Shutdown aside, which according to many won’t have a negative impact on risk assets, traders will be wondering if technology can continue to provide upside momentum for the overall market as the final quarter of 2025 begins. Compared to earlier this year, the Magnificent 7 have had less of a role in recent gains, with some investors looking to the AI supply chain rather than the major names.
Still, the AI buzz is alive and well. There’s about $7 trillion of investment needed to finance the rapid growth of AI, according to Hadley Peer Marshall, CFO at Brookfield Asset Management. The equity buying spree has left aggregate positioning just above neutral, meaning there is still dry powder for more chasing or dip buying into typically positive fourth-quarter seasonality, according to Barclays strategists.
On the policy front, the Fed’s Logan said policymakers should be cautious about considering additional rate cuts while inflation remains above target and the labor market relatively balanced. Meanwhile, Taiwan has pushed back on a US request to move chip production stateside to cover half of America’s demand.
Unlike the US, European stocks gained 0.4%, driven mostly by pharmaceutical stocks as Pfizer’s drug pricing deal provides relief on the industry’s outlook. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:
- Greggs shares rally as much as 13% after the baker said trading improved in August and September and that its cost inflation outlook has improved, helping it to reiterate its full-year expectations.
- European drugmakers rise following Pfizer’s drug-pricing agreement with US President Donald Trump, which JPMorgan analysts say could be a potential bellwether for the sector and “reassure investors over a broadly manageable impact.”
- Ambu shares advance as much as 11% after the Danish health-care equipment maker increased its five-year revenue target and reiterated its Ebit margin goal for the fiscal year ending September 2028.
- Pirelli shares rose as much as 2.4% in Milan after Reuters reported that Chinese shareholder Sinochem might consider selling its stake in the Italian tire maker.
- Arcadis jumps as much as 9.1%, after the provider of consulting and engineering services started repurchasing its own shares.
- Soitec shares rise much as 7.7% after the wafer maker said CEO Pierre Barnabé would step down due to personal reasons.
- Pharming shares rise as much as 7.1% after the Dutch biopharmaceutical company said its supplemental new drug application for leniolisib to treat a rare primary immunodeficiency in children was granted priority review by the US FDA.
- European sportswear stocks are on the move after US peer Nike reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales.
- Tate & Lyle falls as much as 11.5%, dropping to the lowest since July 2009, after the ingredients company said in a pre-close statement that it experienced a slowdown in market demand as the first half progressed.
- European defense stocks are falling on Wednesday as EU leaders meet informally in Copenhagen to discuss how to deal with the threat posed by drone incursions into the bloc’s airspace.
- Flutter UK shares fall as much as 5.4%, extending steep declines on Tuesday amid concern over the competitive threat posed by prediction platforms being offered by the likes of Robinhood and Kalshi.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed, as gains in South Korea, India and Taiwan were overshadowed by declines in Japanese shares on concerns over the impact of a US government shutdown. Hong Kong and Chinese markets were shut for holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index held steady, as gains in the likes of TSMC and Samsung balanced out declines in stocks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and BHP Group. Japanese and Australian blue chips weighed most heavily on the regional benchmark. Most other markets traded in the green. Japan’s monetary policy is moving in the opposite direction as the world generally moves toward easing. Stocks edged higher as the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, while signaling there may be scope to ease in coming months to support an economy taking a hit from US tariffs. Australian shares fell for a second day after the Reserve Bank left its key interest rate unchanged.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% to take losses into a fourth day. The shutdown threatens to delay key economic reports used to gauge the Federal Reserve’s path on interest-rate cuts; the yen is outperforming and the Swiss franc lagging.
In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper as US day begins after plying small ranges overnight. Treasury front-end and belly yields are about 1bp richer on the day with long end cheaper by about 1bp, steepening 5s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.3bp and 2.4bp; US 10-year is 2bps lower near 4.13% with bunds and gilts in the sector trading slightly cheaper. European bonds weaker, with German 10-year yields up three basis points. US Treasuries are little changed. Eurozone inflation quickened in September, in line with economist expectations. IG dollar issuance slate is scant and a subdued session is expected amid the government shutdown. September’s $207.5 billion haul was the fifth-highest month on record and this year’s highest by a $21 billion margin. Focal points of US session include ADP’s private-sector payrolls data, which may hold more sway than usual as the shutdown threatens to delay the release of Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and the monthly jobs report slated for Oct. 3.
In commodities, oil prices wiped out an earlier rise to extend declines into a third session, Brent sliding below $66/barrel and WTI slipping under $62. Gold is extending its run, up by $34 and putting $3,900/oz in sight.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes September ADP employment change (8:15am), September final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), September ISM manufacturing and August construction spending (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (12:15pm) and Goolsbee (5pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.5%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
- DAX +0.3%
- CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.15%
- VIX +0.5 points at 16.82
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1198.96
- euro +0.1% at $1.1747
- WTI crude -0.9% at $61.81/barrel
Government Shutdown
- The US government officially went into shutdown, with a majority of operations halted after no funding deal was reached in the Senate, marking the first shutdown since 2018.
- House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10:00ET/15:00BST news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.
- Top Overnight News
- The US government shut down at midnight for the first time since 2019 — and the third under Donald Trump — after Democrats blocked a Republican stopgap funding package. There were no signs of a resolution forthcoming. BBG
- The White House pulled the nomination of EJ Antoni to lead the BLS. Brian Quintenz is also no longer Trump’s pick to chair the CFTC, after weeks of speculation about his stalled candidacy. BBG
- Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing. As part of the fallout from Trump’s trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the world’s largest soybean importer. BBG
- US trade representative Jamieson Greer has warned that Washington will continue to hit its trading partners with tariffs even if some are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court later this year. The Supreme Court is set to hear cases brought by businesses challenging Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs in the first week of Nov. FT
- Taiwan pushed back on a US request to move chip production stateside to cover half of America’s demand. BBG
- Japan’s business sentiment among large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to the Tankan survey. South Korea’s adjusted exports fell 6.1% year on year in September. BBG
- India’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged (5.5%) as U.S. tariffs continued to cloud the South Asian economy’s outlook, while signaling that it remains open to further easing. WSJ
- Eurozone inflation for Sept is right inline with expectations, including headline at +2.2% (up from +2% in Aug) and core at +2.3% (same as Aug), a development that’s a modest relief given the German CPI on Tues ran ahead of expectations. BBG
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the Fed will be cautious in any further reductions and that the US may need additional labour market slack to reach the 2% inflation target. She noted resilient consumption and business investment show policy is only modestly restrictive, adding that inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted and that financial conditions are now a tailwind, further evidence that policy is modestly restrictive. Logan said it is unclear how much further the Fed can cut before hitting neutral and warned that even excluding tariff impacts, inflation may be as high as 2.4%, driven by non-housing services, according to Reuters.
- Fed to ease Morgan Stanley’s (MS) capital requirements following a review: BBG
- US Energy Secretary said the US government is taking an equity stake in Lithium Americas (LAC), via Bloomberg TV; US DoE to take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas (LAC): ZH
- BlackRock’s (BLK) GIP is said to be nearing USD 38bln takeover of utility AES (AES): FT
- Nike Inc (NKE) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.49 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 11.72bln (exp. 11.00bln). Gross margin decreased 320bps to 42.2%, primarily due to lower average selling price, reflecting higher discounts and channel mix, as well as higher tariffs in North America. CFO said tariffs will cost approximately USD 1.5bln, higher than the prior estimate of around USD 1bln, and expects Q2 revenue to fall by low single digits versus estimates of a 3.1% decline, according to Reuters. Shares rose 4.5% after hours.
Trade/Tariffs
- US Deputy Secretary of State encouraged investment from South Korea, with the US and South Korea holding a working group on visas for South Korean businesses investing in the US, according to a statement.
- South Korea and the US released a joint statement on a foreign exchange policy agreement, pledging to avoid manipulating exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage. The statement did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund. Both sides agreed that FX market intervention should be reserved for combating excessive volatility and would be considered for both disorderly depreciation and appreciation. They also agreed to exchange FX intervention operations on a monthly basis and said any macroprudential or capital flow measures will not target exchange rates, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan rejected a US request to produce half of its chips locally, according to Bloomberg.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said they will operate a USD 550bln US-bound investment without causing FX impact, suggesting USD 550bln is the range where there is no FX impact, according to Reuters.
- European Commission is reportedly looking to sign the EU-Mercosur partnership agreement on December 5th, via Politico citing diplomats.
- European Commission reportedly plans to raise import tariffs on foreign steel to similar levels as US and Canada, via Reuters citing sources; expected to lift the steel import tariff level to 50%.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week. ASX 200 fluctuated between small gains and losses, supported by gold miners at the top of the index, while Energy and Tech lagged. BHP came under pressure after China banned its iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute. Nikkei 225 underperformed as the regional laggard despite a relatively mixed BoJ Tankan Survey. KOSPI was modestly firmer after above-forecast trade data, whilst reports suggested the US and South Korea agreed to establish a visa desk for Korean firms investing in the US. The two sides also issued a joint statement on foreign exchange policy, though it did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund. Nifty 50 traded flat and was little changed as the RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50% as expected in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were shut for Golden Week and will return next Thursday.
Top Asian News
- A BoJ official, following the Tankan Survey, said firms were divided on how they viewed the impact of US tariffs. Some suggested the US-Japan deal has reduced uncertainty and improved the business outlook, while others saw a worsening outlook, according to Reuters.
- RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance, with 2026 CPI now seen at 2.6% (prev. 3.1%). RBI Governor noted the Indian economy shows strength and headline inflation has significantly moderated. He said rationalisation of GST will have a sobering impact on inflation while stimulating consumption and growth, and added that tariffs will moderate exports. He highlighted the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated but the outlook remains clouded amid elevated policy uncertainty, according to Reuters.
European bourses largely firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. Regional outperformance seen in the FTSE 100 +0.7% and SMI +1.5% on account of gains for Healthcare names after Pfizer’s pricing deal. More broadly, sectors are mixed. Energy initially firmer but has succumbed to fresh pressure in the underlying benchmarks, Tech lags and drags on the DAX 40 +0.4%. Numerous individual movers of note, but not changing the macro picture: Puma & Adidas firmer after Nike (+3.2% pre-market); BNP Paribas hit by Bloomberg reports of changes to Basel rules – see European updates for more.
Top European News
- BoE’s Mann says that UK monetary policy is relatively loose, via Bloomberg TV. Adds that tighter interest rates would not currently be appropriate.
FX
- USD falters on shutdown concerns. Given the shutdown, alternative labour reports to Friday’s currently-cancelled Payrolls will draw greater importance. DXY delved as low as 97.46 (lowest since 24th Sept) before recovering modestly across the European morning.
- JPY tops the G10 leaderboard, USD/JPY briefly slipped below 147.00. Support for the Yen is partially a by-product of its safe-haven appeal as the US government enters into shutdown. Additionally, the Yen is also being bolstered by the Japanese Tankan survey, which was mixed/in-line, but ultimately viewed by markets as not being enough to derail expectations of a BoJ rate hike next month.
- Sterling and Euro both firmer vs the USD. Sterling unaffected by BoE’s Mann or the regions PMIs, no move in the EU on its data either including Flash HICP. GBP/USD surpassed its 50DMA @ 1.3463 with focus on a test of 1.35 to the upside while EUR/USD got as high as 1.1778 before fading as the USD came off worst.
- Antipodeans diverge with AUD unable to capitalise on the softer USD with the risk tone capping and with attention on the regions PMIs (revised lower) and Tuesday’s reporting around iron ore cargoes. Kiwi unaffected by the latter points and as such is a touch firmer NZD/USD looking to the 200-DMA at 0.5844.
Fixed Income
- Treasuries are currently holding around the unchanged mark, though the benchmark has posted losses of a handful of ticks at worst this morning. Unable to materially benefit from the deteriorating risk tone, though the complex is off worst in a narrow 112-12 to 112-16+ band.
- As a reminder, in 2018 Fitch warned that an extended shutdown could spark a downgrade to the US’ AAA rating (currently AA+). Since, we have seen the major agencies all warn about increasing US budgetary and general fiscal risks, a point that becomes more acute during a shutdown.
- Narrative similar for Bunds, hit a 128.24 low early doors but lifted off this as the European morning progressed. However, the benchmark was sent back to lows after a particularly weak 2035 auction, continuing the deteriorated trend of such outings.
- Gilts lag, hit by the FTSE 100 extending to highs given pharmaceutical outperformance and reports in the Guardian that Chancellor Reeves will be lifting the two-child benefit cap. Removing the cap would cost the exchequer around GBP 3.5bln/yr. Benchmark lower by 30 ticks at worst, but is off its 90.54 trough.
Commodities
- Crude was initially contained after the OPEC Secretariat’s pushback to reports around a 500k BPD production adjustment by the OPEC 8. Since, a bout of pronounced selling pressure has emerged. No clear or overt fresh fundamental driver behind the move, though it is potentially a function of increased attention on Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cutting benchmark prices of LPG by more than forecast.
- As it stands, WTI and Brent are currently holding modestly in the red but off lows in respective USD 61.62-62.89/bbl and USD 65.32-66.57/bbl parameters.
- Spot gold has rebounded from the profit taking seen on Tuesday, climbing across the European morning as the risk tone got hit by the government shutdown. While the general risk tone is off worst, XAU is yet to lose its allure and remains near its latest ATH of USD 3895/oz.
- 3M LME Copper is marginally firmer but veering towards the lower end of the day’s current USD 10.26-10.36k band. Focus primarily on the overarching macro narrative as outlined above. While only modest, the fact the space is firmer during the broader market pressure we are seeing and with China away for Golden Week is notable.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked the Dutch-flagged ship Minervagracht with a cruise missile, according to Reuters.
- IRGC says “The range of missiles will be increased to any point Tehran deems necessary in response to European demands to restrict Iran’s missile capabilities”, via Sky News Arabia.
- Hamas has informed mediators of the need to provide international guarantees for a complete Israeli withdrawal and ensure that the ceasefire is not violated, Sky News Arabia citing sources.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
- Ukrainian President Zelensky warned the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is critical, noting that Russian shelling is obstructing efforts to restore external power supply and that one backup diesel generator has stopped working, according to Reuters.
- The IAEA said it is engaging with both sides of the military conflict to restore off-site power at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Reuters.
- Finnish President Stubb said, on potential US sanctions on Russia, that US President Trump is moving from the “carrot” to the “stick”, via Politico; when asked what the “stick” would be, he said a “driver”.
- European leaders will not agree on the latest Russian sanctions today, via Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak; hopes that European ambassadors can get a green light on Friday.
- Italy’s Energy Minister Fratin says the EU has not reached a deal to ban Russian LNG before 2028 due to some countries not having alternative suppliers.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Sep 26 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6%
- 8:15 am: Sep ADP Employment Change, est. 50.5k, prior 54k
- 9:45 am: Sep F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 52
- 10:00 am: Sep ISM Manufacturing, est. 49, prior 48.7
- 10:00 am: Sep ISM Prices Paid, est. 62.7, prior 63.7
- 10:00 am: Aug Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.07%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As it’s the start of Q4, Henry will shortly be releasing our latest performance review for Q3. It was a strong quarter overall, with global equities and bonds advancing. In part, that was driven by ongoing resilience on the growth side, as the tariff impact wasn’t as negative as many feared at the start of July. But the Fed’s move to cut rates in September offered further support, particularly for US Treasuries, which in turn pushed gold prices to their strongest monthly performance since 2011 and the S&P 500 to its best September in 15 years. However, it wasn’t all good news, and fiscal fears in Europe put long-end bonds under fresh pressure there, particularly in France. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.
With Q4 underway, all eyes are now on the US government shutdown, which has just begun as we go to press, marking the first in the US in almost seven years — and the third one during President Trump’s administration. Last minute attempts at a funding deal that could muster the necessary 60 votes in the Senate failed yesterday, with a 55-45 vote on a stopgap bill that had been earlier approved by the Republican-controlled House. Three Democrats voted for the bill and all but one Republican. There are no signs of an imminent compromise between the White House and the Democrats, and the Republican leadership in the Senate suggested that any further votes may not take place until after the Yom Kippur holiday on Thursday. Earlier in the day, President Trump reiterated the threat of dismissing “a lot” of federal workers during the shutdown, though it’s not clear how well formed or implementable such plans are.
Interestingly, we looked in yesterday’s chart of the day at this (link here), and found that markets historically have taken shutdowns in their stride. In fact, the S&P 500 rose in the last 6 shutdowns, and 10yr Treasury yields came down in the last 5. Clearly there were other factors in operation as well in these periods, but it shows that for markets at least, the usual pattern is to look through what’s happening.
In practical terms, a big impact for this week is that we’re flying blind on the economic data front. So as it stands, we won’t get a jobs report on Friday, as the BLS aren’t releasing new data. Contrary to our prior expectations the Labor Department yesterday said we won’t see US jobless claims in the shutdown either. We thought we might see it released as the States compile the data. The BLS produce the CPI report on October 15th too, so if we’re shut down for long, that could be affected as well. That isn’t out of the question, as the last shutdown in 2018-19 (also under Mr Trump) lasted for a record 35 days. So other measures, like the ADP’s report of private payrolls today, could well take on added significance until we get the BLS numbers again.
Markets brushed off some initial shutdown jitters yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.41%) recovering to close less than 0.1% from its all-time high, while the NASDAQ (+0.30%) and the Dow Jones (+0.18%) also advanced. So overall investors remained hopeful that the issues will be sorted over the coming days, with little wider impact on the economy or earnings. The Mag-7 (+0.11%) were mixed with Nivida (+2.60%) reaching another all-time high, but Meta (-1.21%) and Amazon (-1.17%) losing ground.
Earlier in the day, sentiment had taken a bit of a hit from some underwhelming US data. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator fell by more than expected in September, down to a five-month low of 94.2 (vs. 96.0 expected). Moreover, the latest JOLTS report offered further momentum on that front, because it showed ongoing weakness in the labour market into August. For instance, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their job fell to 1.9%, which is the lowest since December, and suggests that people are less confident in their prospects. Plus the job openings number ticked up a bit more than expected, rising to 7.227m (vs. 7.2m expected). So that saw investors price in more rate cuts over the months ahead, with 83bps priced in by June 2026, up +2.2bps on the day. Front-end Treasuries rallied following the weaker data, with 2yr yields closing -1.3bps lower at 3.61%, but this was accompanied by a decent curve steepening with 10yr and 30yr yields up +1.1bps and +2.7bps to 4.15% and 4.73% respectively.
Those moves came as Fed speakers were mostly non-committal on the likely pace of rate cuts. Boston Fed President Collins “It may be appropriate to ease the policy rate a bit further this year – but the data will have to show that”, while Dallas Fed President Logan suggested that “there may be relatively little room to make additional rate cuts”. And Vice Chair Jefferson avoided any signal on the policy path, noting that “both sides of our mandate are under pressure”.
Over in Europe, the focus was on the latest inflation numbers, although they didn’t lead to a big market reaction.
Admittedly, the German numbers surprised on the upside, with the EU-harmonised measure ticking up to +2.4% in September (vs. +2.2% expected). However, that was counteracted by a downside surprise from France, where inflation rose by less-than-expected to +1.1% (vs. +1.3% expected). So in aggregate, the numbers didn’t have big implications for the Euro Area-wide print, which is out later this morning, and wasn’t seen as affecting the ECB’s reaction function.
That backdrop meant sovereign bond yields were little changed across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OATs (+0.2bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps) barely increasing. However, there was a stronger performance for equities, with the STOXX 600 (+0.48%) closing at one-month high, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.54%) moved up to a record high.
In the commodity space, Brent oil prices fell by another -1.40% to $67.02/bbl amid reports that OPEC+ will discuss accelerating the reversal of remaining production cuts at their meeting on October 5. Reuters suggested that the next production increase in November could be 2-3 times larger than the +137kbbl/day due in October.
Asian equity markets are quiet, due to holidays in China and Hong Kong for National Day. Markets in mainland China will remain closed until the middle of next week. Throughout the region, Japanese stocks are underperforming, with the Nikkei and the Topix declining by -0.80% and -1.27% respectively, driven by concerns over potential interest rate hikes after a survey showed increasing confidence among the country’s largest manufacturers (details below). Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.15%) is edging lower again after the RBA struck a hawkish tone on forward guidance yesterday. The KOSPI (+0.86%) is bucking the regional negative trend.
Coming back to Japan, sentiment among the country’s major manufacturers has shown improvement for the second consecutive quarter, increasing by 1 point to +14 compared to the results from June. The index for large non-manufacturers has held steady at 34, close to its peak level since the early 1990s. In addition, large enterprises across various sectors intend to raise their business investments by 12.5% for the current fiscal year, an increase from the previously projected 11.5%. Markets are pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike in October with two big events to come later this week. A speech from Governor Ueda on Friday and the conclusion of the LDP leadership election over the weekend.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM manufacturing, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for September. In the Euro Area, we’ll get the flash CPI print for September. And globally, there’s the September manufacturing PMIs as well. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kazimir, Kocher, Simkus, Nagel, the Fed’s Barkin, and the BoE’s Mann.
2b European opening report
US gov’t shuts down. DXY hit, Treasuries contained, awaiting ISM & shutdown update – US Opening News
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 06:25 AM
- US Government has officially gone into a shutdown. Weighing on the general risk tone in the early morning and the USD.
- European bourses have since bounce and extended to highs, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Healthcare leading. Stateside, futures remain lower awaiting data, ES -0.3%.
- DXY delved as low as 97.46 before recovering modestly, JPY tops the leaderboard, GBP & EUR both firmer though EUR losing some steam more recently.
- USTs contained awaiting data and shutdown updates, Bunds hit by soft supply, Gilts lag on Reeves.
- Crude initially steady but under increasing pressure this morning, XAU has resumed its ascent.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes, Fedʼs Barkin, ECBʼs Elderson, de Guindos, Rehn, BoCʼs Rogers.
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US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
- The US government officially went into shutdown, with a majority of operations halted after no funding deal was reached in the Senate, marking the first shutdown since 2018.
- House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10:00ET/15:00BST news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US Deputy Secretary of State encouraged investment from South Korea, with the US and South Korea holding a working group on visas for South Korean businesses investing in the US, according to a statement.
- South Korea and the US released a joint statement on a foreign exchange policy agreement, pledging to avoid manipulating exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage. The statement did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund. Both sides agreed that FX market intervention should be reserved for combating excessive volatility and would be considered for both disorderly depreciation and appreciation. They also agreed to exchange FX intervention operations on a monthly basis and said any macroprudential or capital flow measures will not target exchange rates, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan rejected a US request to produce half of its chips locally, according to Bloomberg.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said they will operate a USD 550bln US-bound investment without causing FX impact, suggesting USD 550bln is the range where there is no FX impact, according to Reuters.
- European Commission is reportedly looking to sign the EU-Mercosur partnership agreement on December 5th, via Politico citing diplomats.
- European Commission reportedly plans to raise import tariffs on foreign steel to similar levels as US and Canada, via Reuters citing sources; expected to lift the steel import tariff level to 50%.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses largely firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. Regional outperformance seen in the FTSE 100 +0.7% and SMI +1.5% on account of gains for Healthcare names after Pfizer’s pricing deal.
- More broadly, sectors are mixed. Energy initially firmer but has succumbed to fresh pressure in the underlying benchmarks, Tech lags and drags on the DAX 40 +0.4%.
- Numerous individual movers of note, but not changing the macro picture: Puma & Adidas firmer after Nike (+3.2% pre-market); BNP Paribas hit by Bloomberg reports of changes to Basel rules – see European updates for more.
- Stateside, futures are lower across the board as selling pressure picked up early doors when the US government shutdown formally occurred. ES -0.6%, NQ -0.7%; given the shutdown, today’s ADP and ISM data draws even greater focus.
- In terms of stocks to watch: Nike (+3.2%) post-earnings; Occidental (+1.3%) as Berkshire Hathaway is looking at the petrochemical unit; Morgan Stanley (+0.5%) after the Fed lowered the names stress capital buffer.
- Samsung (SSNLF/ 005930 KS) and SK Hynix (HXSCL) to supply memory chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project, via Yonhap & Reuters.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- USD falters on shutdown concerns. Given the shutdown, alternative labour reports to Friday’s currently-cancelled Payrolls will draw greater importance. DXY delved as low as 97.46 (lowest since 24th Sept) before recovering modestly across the European morning.
- JPY tops the G10 leaderboard, USD/JPY briefly slipped below 147.00. Support for the Yen is partially a by-product of its safe-haven appeal as the US government enters into shutdown. Additionally, the Yen is also being bolstered by the Japanese Tankan survey, which was mixed/in-line, but ultimately viewed by markets as not being enough to derail expectations of a BoJ rate hike next month.
- Sterling and Euro both firmer vs the USD. Sterling unaffected by BoE’s Mann or the regions PMIs, no move in the EU on its data either including Flash HICP. GBP/USD surpassed its 50DMA @ 1.3463 with focus on a test of 1.35 to the upside while EUR/USD got as high as 1.1778 before fading as the USD came off worst.
- Antipodeans diverge with AUD unable to capitalise on the softer USD with the risk tone capping and with attention on the regions PMIs (revised lower) and Tuesday’s reporting around iron ore cargoes. Kiwi unaffected by the latter points and as such is a touch firmer NZD/USD looking to the 200-DMA at 0.5844.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Treasuries are currently holding around the unchanged mark, though the benchmark has posted losses of a handful of ticks at worst this morning. Unable to materially benefit from the deteriorating risk tone, though the complex is off worst in a narrow 112-12 to 112-16+ band.
- As a reminder, in 2018 Fitch warned that an extended shutdown could spark a downgrade to the US’ AAA rating (currently AA+). Since, we have seen the major agencies all warn about increasing US budgetary and general fiscal risks, a point that becomes more acute during a shutdown.
- Narrative similar for Bunds, hit a 128.24 low early doors but lifted off this as the European morning progressed. However, the benchmark was sent back to lows after a particularly weak 2035 auction, continuing the deteriorated trend of such outings.
- Gilts lag, hit by the FTSE 100 extending to highs given pharmaceutical outperformance and reports in the Guardian that Chancellor Reeves will be lifting the two-child benefit cap. Removing the cap would cost the exchequer around GBP 3.5bln/yr. Benchmark lower by 30 ticks at worst, but is off its 90.54 trough.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude was initially contained after the OPEC Secretariat’s pushback to reports around a 500k BPD production adjustment by the OPEC 8. Since, a bout of pronounced selling pressure has emerged. No clear or overt fresh fundamental driver behind the move, though it is potentially a function of increased attention on Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cutting benchmark prices of LPG by more than forecast.
- As it stands, WTI and Brent are currently holding modestly in the red but off lows in respective USD 61.62-62.89/bbl and USD 65.32-66.57/bbl parameters.
- Spot gold has rebounded from the profit taking seen on Tuesday, climbing across the European morning as the risk tone got hit by the government shutdown. While the general risk tone is off worst, XAU is yet to lose its allure and remains near its latest ATH of USD 3895/oz.
- 3M LME Copper is marginally firmer but veering towards the lower end of the day’s current USD 10.26-10.36k band. Focus primarily on the overarching macro narrative as outlined above. While only modest, the fact the space is firmer during the broader market pressure we are seeing and with China away for Golden Week is notable.
- Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -3.7mln (exp. +1.0mln, prev. -3.8mln), Distillate +3.0mln (exp. -1.1mln, prev. +0.5mln), Gasoline +1.3mln (exp. +0.7mln, prev. +1.1mln), Cushing -0.7mln (prev. +0.072mln)
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Sep) 49.8 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5)
- German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)
- French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.1 (Prev. 48.1)
- Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.0 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 50.4)
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 46.2 (Prev. 46.2)
- EU HICP Flash YY (Sep) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.0%); X F&E Flash YY (Sep) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.3%); Services 3.2% (prev. 3.1%
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE’s Mann says that UK monetary policy is relatively loose, via Bloomberg TV. Adds that tighter interest rates would not currently be appropriate.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the Fed will be cautious in any further reductions and that the US may need additional labour market slack to reach the 2% inflation target. She noted resilient consumption and business investment show policy is only modestly restrictive, adding that inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted and that financial conditions are now a tailwind, further evidence that policy is modestly restrictive. Logan said it is unclear how much further the Fed can cut before hitting neutral and warned that even excluding tariff impacts, inflation may be as high as 2.4%, driven by non-housing services, according to Reuters.
- Nike Inc (NKE) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.49 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 11.72bln (exp. 11.00bln). Gross margin decreased 320bps to 42.2%, primarily due to lower average selling price, reflecting higher discounts and channel mix, as well as higher tariffs in North America. CFO said tariffs will cost approximately USD 1.5bln, higher than the prior estimate of around USD 1bln, and expects Q2 revenue to fall by low single digits versus estimates of a 3.1% decline, according to Reuters. Shares rose 4.5% after hours.
- Fed to ease Morgan Stanley’s (MS) capital requirements following a review, according to Bloomberg.
- US Energy Secretary said the US government is taking an equity stake in Lithium Americas (LAC), via Bloomberg TV; US DoE to take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas (LAC), according to Reuters sources.
- BlackRock’s (BLK) GIP is said to be nearing USD 38bln takeover of utility AES (AES), according to FT sources
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked the Dutch-flagged ship Minervagracht with a cruise missile, according to Reuters.
- IRGC says “The range of missiles will be increased to any point Tehran deems necessary in response to European demands to restrict Iran’s missile capabilities”, via Sky News Arabia.
- Hamas has informed mediators of the need to provide international guarantees for a complete Israeli withdrawal and ensure that the ceasefire is not violated, Sky News Arabia citing sources.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky warned the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is critical, noting that Russian shelling is obstructing efforts to restore external power supply and that one backup diesel generator has stopped working, according to Reuters.
- The IAEA said it is engaging with both sides of the military conflict to restore off-site power at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Reuters.
- Finnish President Stubb said, on potential US sanctions on Russia, that US President Trump is moving from the “carrot” to the “stick”, via Politico; when asked what the “stick” would be, he said a “driver”.
- European leaders will not agree on the latest Russian sanctions today, via Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak; hopes that European ambassadors can get a green light on Friday.
- Italy’s Energy Minister Fratin says the EU has not reached a deal to ban Russian LNG before 2028 due to some countries not having alternative suppliers.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week.
- ASX 200 fluctuated between small gains and losses, supported by gold miners at the top of the index, while Energy and Tech lagged. BHP came under pressure after China banned its iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed as the regional laggard despite a relatively mixed BoJ Tankan Survey.
- KOSPI was modestly firmer after above-forecast trade data, whilst reports suggested the US and South Korea agreed to establish a visa desk for Korean firms investing in the US. The two sides also issued a joint statement on foreign exchange policy, though it did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund.
- Nifty 50 traded flat and was little changed as the RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50% as expected in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were shut for Golden Week and will return next Thursday.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- A BoJ official, following the Tankan Survey, said firms were divided on how they viewed the impact of US tariffs. Some suggested the US-Japan deal has reduced uncertainty and improved the business outlook, while others saw a worsening outlook, according to Reuters.
- RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance, with 2026 CPI now seen at 2.6% (prev. 3.1%). RBI Governor noted the Indian economy shows strength and headline inflation has significantly moderated. He said rationalisation of GST will have a sobering impact on inflation while stimulating consumption and growth, and added that tariffs will moderate exports. He highlighted the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated but the outlook remains clouded amid elevated policy uncertainty, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Tankan All Big Capex Est (Q3) 12.5% vs. Exp. 11.3% (Prev. 11.5%)
- Japanese Tankan Big Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 15.0 (Prev. 13.0)
- Japanese Tankan big non-mf outlook DI (Q3) 28.0 vs. Exp. 29.0 (Prev. 27.0)
- Japanese Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 12.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 12.0)
- Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 34.0 vs. Exp. 34.0 (Prev. 34.0)
- Japanese Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 10.0 vs. Exp. 9.0 (Prev. 9.0)
- Japanese Tankan All Sm Capex Est (Q3) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -5.6%)
- Japanese Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI (Q3) -1.0 vs. Exp. -1.0 (Prev. -2.0)
- Japanese Tankan Small Mf Idx (Q3) 1.0 vs. Exp. 2.0 (Prev. 1.0)
- Japanese Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 14.0 (Prev. 15.0)
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final SA (Sep) 48.5 (Prev. 48.4)
- South Korean Import Growth Prelim (Sep) 8.2% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. -4.1%)
- South Korean Export Growth Prelim (Sep) 12.7% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. 1.2%)
- South Korean Trade Balance Prelim (Sep) 9.56B vs. Exp. 7.81B
- New Zealand Building Consents (Aug) 5.8% (Prev. 5.4%, Rev. 5.3%)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
- Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Sep) -13.2 (Prev. -20.9)
- Australian AIG Construction Index (Sep) 12.3 (Prev. 1.0)
2c) Asian opening report
US gov’t shuts down & OPEC rejects 500k reports – European Opening News
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 01:32 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week.
- The Senate has rejected the House-passed CR (as expected), cementing a shutdown, while House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10 a.m. (15:00 BST) news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.
- BoJ Tankan Survey came in mixed and not strong enough to trigger hawkish repricing. Pricing tilted incrementally dovish as the dust settled, with a BoJ official noting firms were divided on the impact of US tariffs.
- The OPEC Secretariat firmly rejected media reports alleging that the OPEC-8 countries are planning to increase production by 500k bpd, calling the claims wholly inaccurate and misleading.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ & UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Sep), US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes, Fed’s Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos, Rehn, BoC’s Rogers, supply from UK and Germany.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished near session highs, finding strength through the afternoon and into month/quarter-end, though the Russell 2000 still closed flat. The late recovery came without a clear headline catalyst.
- Sectors ended mixed with a slight positive bias: Energy lagged, weighed by lower oil prices, while Health led gains, supported by Pfizer (+6.5%) following a series of Trump-related announcements. Meanwhile, spot gold reversed earlier losses, extended its climb, and printed a fresh all-time high.
- SPX +0.41% at 6,688, NDX +0.28% at 24,680, DJI +0.18% at 46,398, RUT +0.05% at 2,436
- Click here for a detailed summary.
US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
- The US government officially went into shutdown, with a majority of operations halted after no funding deal was reached in the Senate, marking the first shutdown since 2018.
- The Senate has rejected the House-passed CR (as expected), cementing a shutdown, while House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10 a.m. (15:00 BST) news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.
- US President Trump said on government spending that they are going to see what happens, noting he had a good discussion with Schumer and Jeffries. On a potential government shutdown, he said “we’ll probably have one,” adding that Democrats are taking a risk and that during a shutdown, the government can cut benefits and take medical actions that are irreversible, according to Reuters.
- US Senate Democrats urged colleagues to resist President Trump’s stance on government funding during a private caucus meeting on Tuesday, according to Axios sources. A US government shutdown looms within hours amid a lack of compromise from lawmakers, with Democratic opposition strengthening, according to Reuters.
- The Office of Management and Budget issued official guidance that the government will shut down at about midnight, according to FBN’s Lawrence.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the US seems to be headed into a new wave of tariffs, while the labour market remains pretty steady, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said gradual rate cuts are likely if the economy meets expectations, but warned that aggressive cuts risk fuelling inflation. She noted the economic outlook aligns with Fed forecasts, said supportive financial conditions give space to watch data, and emphasised the Fed must continue managing inflation risks, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said the Fed will be cautious in any further reductions and that the US may need additional labour market slack to reach the 2% inflation target. She noted resilient consumption and business investment show policy is only modestly restrictive, adding that inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted and that financial conditions are now a tailwind, further evidence that policy is modestly restrictive. Logan said it is unclear how much further the Fed can cut before hitting neutral and warned that even excluding tariff impacts, inflation may be as high as 2.4%, driven by non-housing services, according to Reuters.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump said Eli Lilly (LLY) has been fantastic, warning that pharma companies will face an extra 5–8% tariff if no deals are made. He said drug pricing will have a huge impact on the mid-term elections and that on Pfizer (PFE), drug price lowering will be immediate, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said Pfizer (PFE) agreed to offer discounts, with the US paying the lowest price, 50–100% off and in some cases more. He added that all US medications will be sold at most favoured nation prices and that Pfizer will offer all of its prescription medications to Medicaid at MFN prices, according to Reuters.
- US FDA Chief said that if drugmakers equalise their prices, their applications will go to the front of the line, and if they build in the US, they will also move to the front of the line, according to Reuters.
- USTR Greer said President Trump’s pharmaceutical tariff is aimed at ensuring that the most innovative drugs are produced in the US, according to the Economic Club of New York.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, on 232 investigations, said that while negotiations are ongoing, they are going to let it play out, according to Reuters.
- USTR Greer said the US will always trade with China but needs to find a place where both countries are comfortable, adding that China’s reliance on exports is not sustainable and that trade should become more balanced. He said China’s “wolf warrior” ethos has leaked into US-China economic relations, noted that the average tariff of 55% on Chinese imports is the status quo, and added that the USTR will be fully functioning in the event of a government shutdown. He said US tariff revenues could reach USD 600bln to USD 1tln per year, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said other drugmakers will commit in the coming weeks to sell at most favoured nation prices, which will help bring Medicaid costs down. He added that medicines will be available for direct purchase on a US government website, according to Reuters.
- US Deputy Secretary of State encouraged investment from South Korea, with the US and South Korea holding a working group on visas for South Korean businesses investing in the US, according to a statement.
- South Korea and the US released a joint statement on a foreign exchange policy agreement, pledging to avoid manipulating exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage. The statement did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund. Both sides agreed that FX market intervention should be reserved for combating excessive volatility and would be considered for both disorderly depreciation and appreciation. They also agreed to exchange FX intervention operations on a monthly basis and said any macroprudential or capital flow measures will not target exchange rates, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan rejected a US request to produce half of its chips locally, according to Bloomberg.
- Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said they will operate a USD 550bln US-bound investment without causing FX impact, suggesting USD 550bln is the range where there is no FX impact, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE US EQUITY NEWS
- USTR Greer, when asked whether the Trump administration has discussed taking a stake in NVIDIA (NVDA), said US President Trump would love a stake in every company that is doing well, according to Reuters.
- Nike Inc (NKE) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.49 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 11.72bln (exp. 11.00bln). Gross margin decreased 320bps to 42.2%, primarily due to lower average selling price, reflecting higher discounts and channel mix, as well as higher tariffs in North America. CFO said tariffs will cost approximately USD 1.5bln, higher than the prior estimate of around USD 1bln, and expects Q2 revenue to fall by low single digits versus estimates of a 3.1% decline, according to Reuters. Shares rose 4.5% after hours.
- Fed to ease Morgan Stanley’s (MS) capital requirements following a review, according to Bloomberg.
- US Energy Secretary said the US government is taking an equity stake in Lithium Americas (LAC), via Bloomberg TV; US DoE to take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas (LAC), according to Reuters sources.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is reportedly in talks to buy Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) chemical unit for USD 10bln, via WSJ.
- BlackRock’s (BLK) GIP is said to be nearing USD 38bln takeover of utility AES (AES), according to FT sources
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week.
- ASX 200 fluctuated between small gains and losses, supported by gold miners at the top of the index, while Energy and Tech lagged. BHP came under pressure after China banned its iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed as the regional laggard despite a relatively mixed BoJ Tankan Survey.
- KOSPI was modestly firmer after above-forecast trade data, whilst reports suggested the US and South Korea agreed to establish a visa desk for Korean firms investing in the US. The two sides also issued a joint statement on foreign exchange policy, though it did not mention a bilateral currency swap or South Korea’s state-run pension fund.
- Nifty 50 traded flat and was little changed as the RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50% as expected in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were shut for Golden Week and will return next Thursday.
- US equity futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -0.5%) traded softer as focus remained on the government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, while this week’s US jobs reports are delayed until the government reopens.
- European equity futures are indicative of a mildly firmer open with the EuroStoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash closed +0.4% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY traded flat in a tight 97.80–97.88 range for most of the session as attention stayed on the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR. Towards the end of the APAC session, DXY weakened to an intraday low of 97.58 despite a lack of headlines, but as European players reacted to the US government shutdown. Focus now turns to its duration, with Jobless Claims and NFP releases likely delayed unless the government reopens before their respective scheduled release days. Elsewhere, traders also await the ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday.
- EUR/USD was uneventful in a 1.1730–1.1742 range for a bulk of the session before being supported by recent USD softness. Traders now look ahead to the Flash HICP metrics and commentary from ECB speakers on Wednesday.
- GBP/USD was little changed after initially finding resistance at 1.3450 overnight, with UK newsflow quiet and the domestic docket light. Late USD weakness prompted upside in GBP/USD, which eventually topped 1.3450.
- USD/JPY held in a narrow range on either side of 148.00 for most of the session with a slight upward tilt after the BoJ Tankan Survey came in mixed and not strong enough to trigger a further hawkish repricing. USD/JPY fell to a fresh session low at 147.63 ahead of the European open amid late USD weakness.
- Antipodeans were softer throughout, with China closed for a week-long holiday. Additional downside pressure stemmed from a revision lower in the Australian Manufacturing PMI and reports that China banned BHP iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were slightly softer after mixed data left yesterday’s price action choppy before settling flat, with focus now on the length of the US government shutdown as this week’s Jobless Claims and NFP are likely delayed unless the government reopens, while traders also await the ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday.
- Bund futures traded weaker in tandem with peers, slipping back under the 128.50 handle as traders looked ahead to Flash HICP metrics, a 2035 Bund auction, and commentary from ECB speakers on Wednesday.
- 10yr JGB futures were mildly firmer after the BoJ Tankan Survey, which was not strong enough to prompt hawkish repricing.
- Australia sold AUD 1.2bln 3.50% 2034 bond; b/c 2.1x (prev. 3.73x), average yield 4.29% (prev. 4.09%)
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures eked out mild gains for most of the session after a choppy Tuesday amid mixed reporting around OPEC’s upcoming weekend meeting, with the OPEC Secretariat firmly rejecting media claims that the OPEC-8 plan to raise production by 500k bpd, calling them wholly inaccurate and misleading. Little action was seen from the surprise draw in Private Inventories, with the internals more bearish.
- Spot gold had an upward bias for most of the session as the US government shut down, with the yellow metal hitting another fresh all-time high at USD 3,875/oz before waning.
- Copper futures edged slightly firmer, holding above the USD 10k/t handle despite the absence of Chinese participants during the eight-day Golden Week holiday.
- The OPEC Secretariat firmly rejected media reports alleging that the OPEC-8 countries are planning to increase production by 500k bpd, calling the claims wholly inaccurate and misleading. It said discussions among relevant ministers concerning the upcoming meeting have not yet commenced and urged media outlets to exercise accuracy and responsibility to avoid fuelling unnecessary speculation in the oil market, according to OPEC via X.
- Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -3.7mln (exp. +1.0mln, prev. -3.8mln), Distillate +3.0mln (exp. -1.1mln, prev. +0.5mln), Gasoline +1.3mln (exp. +0.7mln, prev. +1.1mln), Cushing -0.7mln (prev. +0.072mln)
- A fire reportedly broke out at Glencore’s (GLEN LN) Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile, via local radio.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy in a narrow range on either side of USD 114k.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- A BoJ official, following the Tankan Survey, said firms were divided on how they viewed the impact of US tariffs. Some suggested the US-Japan deal has reduced uncertainty and improved the business outlook, while others saw a worsening outlook, according to Reuters.
- RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, maintaining a neutral policy stance, with 2026 CPI now seen at 2.6% (prev. 3.1%). RBI Governor noted the Indian economy shows strength and headline inflation has significantly moderated. He said rationalisation of GST will have a sobering impact on inflation while stimulating consumption and growth, and added that tariffs will moderate exports. He highlighted the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated but the outlook remains clouded amid elevated policy uncertainty, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Tankan All Big Capex Est (Q3) 12.5% vs. Exp. 11.3% (Prev. 11.5%)
- Japanese Tankan Big Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 15.0 (Prev. 13.0)
- Japanese Tankan big non-mf outlook DI (Q3) 28.0 vs. Exp. 29.0 (Prev. 27.0)
- Japanese Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 12.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 12.0)
- Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 34.0 vs. Exp. 34.0 (Prev. 34.0)
- Japanese Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI (Q3) 10.0 vs. Exp. 9.0 (Prev. 9.0)
- Japanese Tankan All Sm Capex Est (Q3) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -5.6%)
- Japanese Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI (Q3) -1.0 vs. Exp. -1.0 (Prev. -2.0)
- Japanese Tankan Small Mf Idx (Q3) 1.0 vs. Exp. 2.0 (Prev. 1.0)
- Japanese Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 14.0 (Prev. 15.0)
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final SA (Sep) 48.5 (Prev. 48.4)
- South Korean Import Growth Prelim (Sep) 8.2% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. -4.1%)
- South Korean Export Growth Prelim (Sep) 12.7% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. 1.2%)
- South Korean Trade Balance Prelim (Sep) 9.56B vs. Exp. 7.81B
- New Zealand Building Consents (Aug) 5.8% (Prev. 5.4%, Rev. 5.3%)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 51.4 (Prev. 51.6)
- Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Sep) -13.2 (Prev. -20.9)
- Australian AIG Construction Index (Sep) 12.3 (Prev. 1.0)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- A diplomatic source told i24NEWS that the plan presented by President Trump is without negotiations and that “the answer should be yes or no,” while the US administration is signalling it may be ready for some kind of minimal but not lengthy negotiations. On the other hand, Qatar and Hamas said the plan is in fact an opening, via Jerusalem Post’s Stein.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked the Dutch-flagged ship Minervagracht with a cruise missile, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky warned the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is critical, noting that Russian shelling is obstructing efforts to restore external power supply and that one backup diesel generator has stopped working, according to Reuters.
- The IAEA said it is engaging with both sides of the military conflict to restore off-site power at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Reuters.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves said she cannot set out policies without explaining where the money will come from, adding that child poverty will be reduced in this Parliament and details will be laid out in the budget, according to Reuters.
- UK Chancellor Reeves will lift the two-child benefit cap in the November budget, according to The Guardian.
- BoE’s Breeden said the recent “hump” in inflation is unlikely to lead to additional inflationary pressure, noting that while the underlying disinflationary process looks on track, policymakers face a balancing act in managing the risks around the outlook. She said inflation this month is expected to peak at 4%, well above target, stressing it is too high and the BoE’s job is to return it sustainably. She added the hump reflects external shocks and is unlikely to create further pressures, and said she has not yet seen evidence that the underlying disinflationary process is veering off track. Breeden cautioned that the path ahead is uncertain, with risks on both sides, and stressed focus will be on indicators of wage and services price inflation, along with pricing intentions from surveys and BoE agents, as key signposts for when it might be appropriate to remove further restrictiveness, according to the BoE.
LATAM
- Brazil Treasury official Leal said they will roll over debt of just over 100% this year, adding that while the maximum target for debt is BRL 8.8tln, this does not mean the Treasury is seeking or will reach it. He said a comfortable range has been set as the goal, noted that in recent weeks issuance has proceeded at a more moderate pace than at the start of the year, and emphasised they will be more cautious to respect any market restrictions. He added that if conditions arise, the Treasury would have no problem accessing the international market again this year, according to Reuters.
- Colombia’s central bank held interest rates steady at 9.25%, in line with expectations, with the decision backed by a majority of board members, while Central Bank Chief Leonardo Villar announced the cancellation of the IMF flexible credit line, according to Reuters.
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
CHINA/BROKEN HILL PTY
BROKEN HILL IS HEADQUARTERED IN GREAT BRITAIN
(ZEROHEDGE)
China Halts All New BHP Iron Ore Cargoes As Traders Brief Goldman On Situation
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 07:15 AM
Bloomberg reports that China Mineral Resources Group has temporarily halted purchases of all dollar-denominated seaborne iron ore cargoes from BHP Group vessels.
The trade suspension follows failed talks between CMRG (the world’s largest iron ore buyer) and BHP (the world’s largest listed miner) and builds on earlier restrictions targeting BHP’s Jimblebar blend fines. CMRG has now barred mills from taking Jimblebar cargoes at ports or purchasing them in the yuan spot market, forcing some steelmakers to source ore elsewhere.
“Would China have done this a decade ago, when it heavily depended on imports? No way,” Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price wrote in a note, adding that the difference now is that Chinese steel demand is sluggish and new supplies from the giant Simandou mine in Guinea are near.
The suspension highlights Beijing’s efforts to exert greater influence in global iron ore markets, shifting power away from global miners (BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale) toward China’s steel industry.
Goldman analyst James McGeoch spoke with traders to gather more insight into the situation.
Here’s what McGeoch told clients earlier:
Press is reporting that “China” halts purchases of “ALL” BHP iron ore ore, traders tell me they see two agendas:
- Commercial term improvement (the majority of the friction, like 90%) and
- a desire to shift some sales to RMB denomination (10%).
Brief background: I wrote the below last Monday “last week it was reported (19 Sept) that Chinas CMRG halting some BHP product link, at the time we understood it related to Jimblebar fines, these acct for c.14mt annually. There is 2mt reported at port, which would be the number to focus on right now. Traders tell me BHP won’t sign a discounted supply deal, so the games begin as CMRG gets bigger. RIO as I understand recently signed a deal floating price deal to year end. Until Simandou comes on and the mkt rebalances those tonnes everyone is nervous and China smells that fear, CMRG is doing exactly what people believe it was designed for….”… This may be a misplaced comment, however its always been my personal impression that BHP’s MOU is to be the best producer, let the mkt clear at the most efficient price. Its black and white. CMRG is introducing shades of grey and BHP are holding the line….
Making sense of the iron ore market, McGeoch published a few charts for clients:
Iron Ore does tend to trend higher into year-end
Singapore iron ore futures rose about 1% to $104 a ton. BHP shares in London fell 2%.
Last month, BHP reported annual profit that slid to the lowest level in half a decade, as dismal demand from China’s sluggish economic recovery weighed on iron ore prices and prompted a cut in capital and exploration spending.
Related:
- Iron Ore Hits Six-Month Highs Despite UBS Calling It “Least Discussed” With Investors
- Iron Ore Price Volatility Now At 2008 Low
- Iron Ore Soars As China Pledges Crackdown On Industrial Overcapacity
. . .
4. European affairs and NATO
SPAIN
(BROOKE/REMIX)
Leaked Police Call Reveals Migrant Gangs Have Led To No-Go Zones For Authorities In Catalonia
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Torelló, a town in the Osona region of Catalonia, is facing growing insecurity after a leaked recording revealed local police officers acknowledging they are unable to control violent migrant groups gathering in certain areas, and have been laughed at and forced to retreat from dispatch calls.
The audio, verified by authorities and reported by ElCaso.cat, captures an officer telling a resident that police cannot act against around 25 rioters in Sant Josep Street because only two officers were on duty.
“They are laughing at us,” the officer said in the call. “They are throwing us out. If we don’t want to get hurt, we too [must leave],” he added, describing how officers had to withdraw after being met with hostility.
Residents say the area around the old Vitri lot has become a hotspot for antisocial behavior, fights, and intimidation.
The call has been widely circulated by neighbors, who see it as a symbol of law enforcement’s loss of control. Many have organized a rally outside the town hall for Monday evening to demand action from local authorities.
Security Councillor Elisabet Viñas, from the Republican Left, confirmed the recording’s authenticity and acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. In a private message to residents, she wrote: “The Local Police are going there, they are there and have arrested them many times. The laws are not strong enough, nor justice fast enough to get rid of these filthy people.”
She added that the problem stemmed largely from young men, “mostly foreigners from the Maghreb,” who had occupied several nearby apartments and were allegedly involved in burglaries and shop break-ins.
Municipal sources admitted the issue extended beyond Torelló. “We need stronger laws, faster justice, and more police on the streets,” one official said, noting that insecurity was a growing concern across the country. The town council has announced the creation of five new positions in the Local Police to strengthen its force.
Catalonia has become the epicenter of violent crime in Spain, with foreigners vastly overrepresented in serious offenses, according to interior ministry crime stats published in January.
The stats portal for 2023 showed that all 10 Spanish cities with the highest rates of violent robberies and intimidation are located in Catalonia, with Barcelona leading the list.
Remix News previously reported in November last year on statistics highlighting the extent of foreign overrepresentation in Catalan prisons. At the time, 50.48 percent of the inmate population comprised non-Spaniards.
END
UK
You have to be kidding??? They arrested her????
Free speech is non existent in the UK
(Turley)
Scottish Police Arrest Serial Speaker: Elderly Woman Charged After Holding Sign Offering to Discuss Abortion
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Rose Docherty is what they call a criminal recidivist in the United Kingdom. The 75-year-old woman has been arrested for a second time for the same fiendish act: offering to speak to women considering an abortion. She was arrested outside the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital in Glasgow for carrying a placard which stated “Coercion is a crime, here to talk, only if you want.” Fortunately, she and her sign were quickly seized by the local police to protect the public.
Free speech literally does not have a prayer in the United Kingdom. We previously discussed the case of Isabel Vaughan-Spruce, who was arrested for standing near an abortion clinic while silently praying. Police asked what she was doing standing at the location and when she said that she was praying in her head, they arrested her.
How Docherty ended up in the hoosegow in Glasgow is a chilling tale of how censorship can consume a nation.
The Abortion Services (Safe Access Zones) Act came into force last September. The architect of the law, Scottish Green MSP Gillian Mackay, denounced protests of abortions as “totally unacceptable abuse and obstruction” outside hospitals. So it is now a crime to behave in ways that could influence the decisions of women and staff to access services within the buffer zones.
In other words, it is a crime to exercise free speech. In this case, the “unacceptable abuse” was offering to speak with other women about abortion.
The United Kingdom shows how limiting speech can create an insatiable appetite for greater and greater speech controls. I discuss the UK as a cautionary tale for the United States in my book, The Indispensable Right.
A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”
British censorship now extends to not just silent prayers but toxic thoughts.
Last year, Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire. The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his “toxic ideology” based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire.
While most of us find Brock’s views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room. Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement: “I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.”
Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:
“[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…”
Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and “there was no evidence of disseminating to others,” he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views.
After the sentencing Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because he “showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation….We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security.”
The idea of cracking down on “toxic ideologies” is of course nothing new in countries like China and Iran. However, the anti-free speech movement in Europe has succeeded in destroying the foundations for free speech in the West. the European Union is now one of the most hostile, anti-free speech organizations in the world.
As the anti-free speech movement grows in this country, citizens need to look at Europe for where this path would take us. Americans are appearing before the EU and speaking at European conferences in support of such measures. Anti-free speech views and books are all the rage in academia. It is a dangerous conceit to believe that what has occurred in Europe cannot occur here.
Just ask Rose Docherty.
END
SPAIN/USA ISRAEL
they will be sorry for this in the future
Spain Blocks US Military From Transferring Arms To Israel Through Its Bases
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Spain has continued to be a leading EU nation in ramping up the diplomatic pressure on Israel, and seeking to isolate it. It’s government this week has moved to prohibit US military planes and ships from using its territory to transfer weapons and equipment to Israel.
As reported by leading newspaper El País on Monday, the new decision applies specifically to the Rota naval base and the Morón air base, both located in the southwestern part of the country – long used as key Mediterranean region transfer hubs.
There has long existed routine coordination between Spanish and American military officials, however, the relationship is becoming increasingly tense, given the move reflects a serious political divergence amid the ongoing war in Gaza.
The Rota base, near Cádiz on the Atlantic coast, is under Spanish control but heavily utilized by American forces. Also, the Morón air base, which is near Seville, is a key hub for US military operations, with American forces long operating with a broad degree of freedom there.
Madrid is defending its decision as rooted in Spain’s sovereignty and terms outlined in a 1988 bilateral defense agreement, amid growing European scrutiny of Israeli military action against Palestinians, which currently is largely focused on the complete military takeover of Gaza City.
According to more details via The Telegraph:
Citing sources familiar with the Spanish-American committee that manages the bases in Seville and Cadiz, El Pais reported that Spain has banned supplies going directly to Israel and those with a stopover as their final destination.
“Rota and Morón are not a sieve,” sources told El Pais, which first reported the ban.
“They are Spanish sovereign bases, under the command of a Spanish military officer, and everything that happens there must be authorized by the Spanish authorities.”
These reports have made clear that as of yet Spain does not typically inspect US transport planes or ships that stop at Spanish bases – but if arms smuggling to Israel is uncovered during the ban, this could prove highly embarrassing and damaging to Madrid-Washington relations and cooperation.
Meanwhile, Spain is pressing its case against both Israel and the US through other avenues as well, with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling for Israel to be excluded from international sports competitions over human rights abuses and war crimes against Palestinians.
“Israel cannot continue to use any international platform to whitewash its image,” he told officials of his Socialist Workers’ Party earlier this month, describing that Israel should have the same pariah status and isolation as Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
END
EUROPE/RUSSIA
(KORYBKO)
Ukraine Is At The Center Of Three Interlocking Triangles For Containing Russia
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
These are the 2020 Lublin Triangle (Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania), the 2022 de facto alliance between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK, and early August’s Odessa Triangle with Romania and Moldova.
Russia has in recent years consistently accused the West of turning Ukraine into an “anti-Russia” for containment purposes, in response to which Putin authorized the ongoing special operation. A year and a half before it began, Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine formed the “Lublin Triangle”, which involves military cooperation and continues to lurch along five years after its creation. Exactly one week before the special operation started, the UK, Poland, and Ukraine then formed a de facto alliance.
These two triangles facilitated the UK’s efforts to sabotage spring 2022’s peace talks, for which Poland deserves equal blame as explained here, thus perpetuating the conflict till now. Right after the news broke that Putin and Trump would hold their first in-person meeting since the latter’s return to office, which later took place in Anchorage, Ukraine announced the formation of another triangle with Romania and Moldova. Their “Odessa Triangle” is thus the third one centered on Ukraine for containing Russia.
These three interlocking triangles are expected to play significant roles in the post-conflict future.
- The first one, the Lublin Triangle, includes Lithuania, which now hosts Germany’s first permanent base abroad.
- As for the second, it importantly involves the UK, which has always worked to divide-and-rule Europe.
- And lastly, France has a base in Romania and a security pact with Moldova, which could lead to Paris exploiting them as launchpads for strengthening its newly reported secret presence in Odessa.
Ukraine’s seven associated partners (five of which are formal while the other two – Germany and France – are informal) could therefore either continue funneling arms into the country for prolonging the conflict or continuing Ukraine’s militarization afterwards and/or prepare to deploy there one day. Poland, the UK, France, and Germany also clinched security pacts with Ukraine all across last year, which this analysis here argues already amount to a form of Article 5-like guarantees.
As was written, “[Article 5] obligates members to assist those of their allies that come under attack, albeit as each of them ‘deems necessary’. Although the use of armed force is mentioned, it’s ultimately left to individual members to decide whether to employ this option. Ukraine has arguably enjoyed the benefits of this principle for the past three years despite not being a NATO member since it’s received everything other than troops from the alliance”.
It’s therefore moot whether Ukraine ever formally joins NATO since that wouldn’t guarantee that its allies would dispatch troops in its support should another conflict erupt. More realistically, they’d likely only resume and then ramp up the aid that they’re already providing in order to avoid a potentially apocalyptic conflict with Russia. The EU’s rapid militarization coupled with progress on the “military Schengen” for facilitating related logistics could create enduring post-conflict threats to Russia’s security.
From Poland and Romania, Ukraine’s other five partners could therefore station a large number of troops, store lots of military equipment, and possibly continue funneling arms and ammo across the border for either prolonging the conflict or continuing Ukraine’s militarization afterwards. Russia will certainly take these credible threats into consideration when deciding upon the best way to end the conflict in accordance with its national interests as they’ve evolved 3,5 years into the special operation.
end
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HRS:
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Ben Gvir said to tell PM at cabinet meeting that Gaza plan is ‘dangerous,’ ‘full of holes’
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Otzma Yehudit MK Limor Son Har-Melech attend a meeting of the Knesset National Security Committee, September 28, 2025. (Noam Moskowitz, Office of the Knesset Spokesperson)
Itamar Ben Gvir, speaking at a full government cabinet meeting, says US President Donald Trump’s peace plan harms Israel’s security, in comments reported by Hebrew media.
The far-right national security minister, who has opposed previous hostage-ceasefire deals, reportedly calls the deal “dangerous to Israel’s security.”
Turning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ben Gvir reportedly says: “I understand there was pressure on you, but you should never have gone along with an agreement that’s full of holes like this.”
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/USA
US pro-Palestinian groups mum or opposed to Gaza peace deal
By Luke Tress
People march as they gather to protest the banning of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) and Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) at Columbia University on November 20, 2023, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/AFP)
Pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel activist groups in the US reject the deal proposed by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza.
National Students for Justice in Palestine and the US Palestinian Community Network share a message on social media that says, “Normalization is never the answer.”
“The Palestinian people alone determine their path to liberation, not Trump, not Israel,” the statement says.
Nerdeen Kiswani, the head of the leading activist group in New York, Within Our Lifetime, says the plan is “not about peace, it’s a blueprint for surrender and foreign control.”
“The deal would dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure Gaza never poses a challenge to Israel,” she says.
The far-left activist group Code Pink, which often protests Israel, says, “This is not a peace plan. It’s a plan for permanent occupation.”
The plan unveiled by the White House on Monday explicitly states: “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza.”
Another far-left anti-Israel group, the People’s Forum, says the meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “reinforced US complicity in the genocide of the Palestinian people,” while calling to “end the genocide.”
The anti-Zionist Jewish Voice for Peace does not respond to a request for comment.
Other groups have not issued any comment, and no pro-Palestinian activist groups appear to have voiced support for the agreement.
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib says, “Trump and War Criminal Netanyahu, perpetrators of the genocide, do not get to decide the future of Gaza.”
END
Trump’s Gaza peace plan is ‘non-negotiable,’ senior Israeli official tells ‘Post’
The comments followed remarks by Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, who strongly suggested that negotiations would be necessary.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (not pictured) in the State Dining Room at the White House, in Washington, DC, US, September 29, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)ByAMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 30, 2025 20:48Updated: SEPTEMBER 30, 2025 22:58
US President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza is non-negotiable, a senior Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
“This must be a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer from Hamas,” the source said.
The comments followed remarks by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who strongly suggested that negotiations would be necessary. “Trump’s plan achieves the central goal of ending the war, but it contains issues that require clarification and negotiation,” Al Thani said on Tuesday.
He added that “ending the war is a clear component of the plan, but the question of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza requires clarification and discussion.”
Israeli officials and other figures familiar with the talks told the Post that Hamas’s eventual answer would likely be “yes,” but with significant reservations. One of the main sticking points, they believe, will be the issue of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. “Trump’s plan does not specify any dates regarding the withdrawal of the IDF from the Strip. Hamas wants to see a concrete timetable,” one source explained.
Other contentious points are also expected to arise, including the demand for all hostages to be released within 72 hours, the question of governance in Gaza, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. According to the officials, Hamas is likely to present objections or seek clarifications on these issues.\
What happens to Hamas after the war ends?
The vision presented by Trump is a de-radicalized, terrorism-free Gaza. Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence and give up their weapons could receive amnesty. Those who choose to leave Gaza would be offered safe passage to third countries.
The text does not spell out vetting standards, penalties for violations, or a policing model to enforce disarmament.
The plan’s feasibility rests on three tests: mutual acceptance by Israel and Hamas, the credible enforcement of security and disarmament inside Gaza, and the sustained funding and political backing from regional and international partners.
Hamas, along with other Palestinian groups, is leaning toward accepting the plan, an informed source told CBS News on Tuesday.
After arriving at a response to the proposal, the Palestinian groups will reportedly present it to Egyptian and Qatari mediators on Wednesday.
The report follows a previous AFP report on Tuesday, which stated that Hamas has “begun a series of consultations” to discuss the 20-point plan, citing a Palestinian source close to the terror group.
Turkey joined the mediation team meeting on Gaza on Tuesday in Qatar, the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday.
Qatar is satisfied with the US security assurances it has received following attacks by Israel on Doha, the spokesperson added.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS ET AL
Qatar, Egypt and Turkey said to urge Hamas to accept Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposal
Qatari PM said to tell terror group in Doha that it won’t get a better deal; conflicting reports emerge on stance of Hamas leaders inside Gaza; BBC says group planning to reject plan
By ToI Staff, Agencies, Luke Tress Follow
and Nurit Yohanan Follow
Today, 10:40 am
US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu depart at the conclusion of a joint press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on September 29, 2025. (Jim WATSON / AFP)
Qatar, Egypt and Turkey have urged Hamas to give a positive response to US President Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal, Axios reported Tuesday, as separate reports indicated the terror group considers the offer unjust and is likely to reject it.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad, two of the mediators in the talks, met with Hamas leaders in Doha on Monday night, and again on Tuesday with Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also in attendance, Axios reported, citing two sources with knowledge of the talks.
During the Monday meeting, al-Thani told Hamas leaders that he would be unable to secure a better deal for them, that he was confident Trump was committed to ending the war and that this was a strong enough guarantee for Hamas, according to one of the sources cited by Axios.
Hamas responded that it would study the proposal in good faith, the source said, echoing Qatar’s statement on Monday that the terror group had vowed to examine the offer responsibly.
The proposed deal enjoys the support of Western, Arab and Muslim nations, as well as the Palestinian Authority. Russia and the Vatican also extended their support for the deal on Tuesday, as anti-Israel US activist groups rejected it.
Trump presented the plan on Monday in a joint press conference at the White House with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who endorsed the proposal. On Tuesday, Trump said Hamas had “three or four days” to respond and that it would “pay in hell” if it did not agree.
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani, right, greets US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, back to camera, at Amiri Diwan, in Doha, Qatar, September 16, 2025. (Nathan Howard/Pool Photo via AP)
The proposal would release the remaining 48 hostages within 72 hours. In exchange, Israel would release 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences; 1,700 Gazans, including all women and children, detained since the Hamas onslaught of October 7, 2023, which sparked the war in Gaza; and 15 bodies of deceased Gazans for every body of an Israeli hostage.
The proposal would also require a three-phase Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, disarm Hamas, demilitarize Gaza, ensure uninhibited humanitarian aid to the Strip and hand the enclave over to an international transitional government without Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. Hamas has refused to disarm absent Palestinian statehood, which Israel rejects, and until “the occupation” is ended. Hamas regards Israel existence as occupation, and avowedly seeks to destroy the Jewish state.
Conflicting reports have emerged on how Hamas was reacting to the proposal, particularly on the stance of the Hamas military leadership inside Gaza.
The BBC, which cited a senior Hamas official, said Hamas also opposes the so-called International Stabilization Force, which the terror group “views as a new form of occupation.”
The Hamas official was quoted as saying the offer “serves Israel’s interests” and “ignores those of the Palestinian people,” and that the terror group was likely to reject it.
According to the BBC, “a key sticking point” for Hamas is the requirement that it hand over all the hostages in the first 72 hours, since that would deprive the terror group of its only bargaining chip.
The outlet said Gaza-based Hamas chief Izz al-Din Haddad “is thought to be determined to keep fighting,” and that Hamas leaders outside of Gaza have recently been sidelined in discussions since they do not control the hostages.
Hamas Gaza chief Izz al-Din Haddad, then the commander of Hamas’s Gaza City Brigade, is seen in a video released by Hamas’s military wing in May 2022.
A separate report in Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat quoted Hamas sources as saying Trump’s offer “leans to one side and creates injustice,” serving Israeli rather than Palestinian interests.
However, the terror group would still examine the offer “positively,” said the sources cited by Asharq Al-Awsat. These sources contradicted the official speaking to the BBC, instead saying that Hamas sources inside the Strip told the newspaper that, in conversation with the terror group’s leadership abroad, Hamas officials in Gaza had stressed the importance of responding positively to the plan in order to bring an end to the war. According to them, the group’s military wing also agrees with this approach.
The sources added that no clear date has been set for delivering Hamas’s response to the plan, but mediators have asked the group to act quickly and provide an answer within about two days.
According to the sources, while the points contained in the plan are outlined at length and in detail, they contain no real guarantees for implementing the terms of the agreement.
The sources said there may be a need for adjustments regarding the timeline for releasing hostages, including those who are dead, since time would be required to locate the burial sites of the slain captives within the Strip.
Russia, Vatican join chorus of support for Trump’s plan
The Kremlin said Tuesday that it hoped Trump’s proposal would be implemented, and a Russian diplomat offered further support in a call with a senior official of the Palestinian Authority.
In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Russia always supports and welcomes any efforts by Trump aimed at ending the tragedy that is currently unfolding.”
He added: “And, of course, we want this plan to be implemented and for it to help bring events in the Middle East to a peaceful conclusion.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin later told Palestinian Authority Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh by telephone that Russia supported “any steps that will facilitate an end to the bloodshed,” the Russian foreign ministry said.
Palestinians gather to receive food portions from a charity kitchen in Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip, on September 30, 2025. (Eyad BABA / AFP)
“Hope was expressed that successful implementation of the new US initiative will allow for a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, the liberation of hostages and detainees and unhindered supplies of humanitarian aid into the area,” the ministry said.
Moscow, it said, stood by a solution which provided for the “creation of an independent State of Palestine coexisting in peace and harmony with Israel.”
Pope Leo XIV on Tuesday also praised Trump’s plan and expressed hope that Hamas would endorse it.
“There are very interesting elements” in the plan, the pope was quoted as saying by Italy’s ANSA news agency. “I hope Hamas will accept it within the established timeframe.”
“From all sides, people are saying, ‘Let’s hope that there will not be violence, that people are respected.’ That’s very important,” the pope said to reporters as he left Castel Gandolfo summer residence, which he has taken to visiting regularly.
Anti-Israel groups in US denounce Trump’s proposal
Meanwhile, US anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian groups slammed Trump’s proposal, and US Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in the US Congress, wrote on social media: “Trump and War Criminal Netanyahu, perpetrators of the genocide, do not get to decide the future of Gaza.”
National Students for Justice in Palestine and the US Palestinian Community Network shared a message on social media that says, “Normalization is never the answer.”
“The Palestinian people alone determine their path to liberation, not Trump, not Israel,” the statement said.
Nerdeen Kiswani, the head of the leading activist group in New York, Within Our Lifetime, said the plan was “not about peace, it’s a blueprint for surrender and foreign control.”
“The deal would dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities, end its political rule and ensure Gaza never poses a challenge to Israel,” she said.
People demonstrate in Times Square during a pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel protest, in New York, September 26, 2025, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN General Assembly at the UN headquarters in the city. (AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis)
The far-left activist group Code Pink, which often protests Israel, said, “This is not a peace plan. It’s a plan for permanent occupation.” The plan unveiled by the White House explicitly says “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza.”
Another far-left anti-Israel group, the People’s Forum, said the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu “reinforced US complicity in the genocide of the Palestinian people,” while calling to “end the genocide.”
Israel firmly rejects allegations that it is carrying out genocide in Gaza. It has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities in its war against Hamas, sparked by the terror group’s massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas, including homes, hospitals, schools and mosques.
The anti-Zionist Jewish Voice for Peace did not respond to a request for comment. Other groups have not issued any comment, and no pro-Palestinian activist groups appear to have voiced support for the agreement.
END
IDF presses Gaza City offensive as Israel awaits Hamas response to Trump peace plan
Hamas official tells BBC terror group likely to reject plan * US government enters shutdown * ADL deletes extremism glossary * Yemen’s Houthis claim responsibility for Monday attack on Dutch-flagged ship
17 reported killed today in Gaza, mostly in Gaza City
By Reuters
Health authorities in Gaza say that at least 17 people across the Strip have been killed by the IDF today, most of them in Gaza City.
A strike on the old city in northwestern Gaza City killed seven people, while six people sheltering in a school in another part of the city were killed in a separate strike, medics say.
Figures reported by Hamas-run Gaza health authorities cannot be verified and do not differentiate between civilians and fighters.
IDF presses Gaza City offensive as Israel awaits Hamas response to Trump peace plan
A photo released by the Israel Defense Forces on October 1, 2025, showing IDF activity in the Gaza Strip. (Israel Defense Forces)
In a daily update, the IDF details recent operations by ground troops operating in Gaza City and on its outskirts.
Troops of the 36th Division raided a building used by Hamas and seized weapons and military equipment, and in separate operations, killed terror operatives and destroyed infrastructure used by terror groups, the military says.
The IDF says forces of the 162nd Division directed a drone strike against several terror operatives who were identified in their area of operations, deep in Gaza City.
The 98th Division located several abandoned Hamas positions, where troops found numerous weapons and military equipment, and separately directed a strike that killed several Hamas operatives at a weapons depot, the army says.
On the outskirts of Gaza City, the IDF says the 99th Division killed terror operatives who had posed a threat and struck several buildings used by terror groups.
The fighting comes as Israel awaits Hamas’s response to a plan put forward by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has accepted the plan, which has also drawn praise from a range of Arab countries.Share
AFGHANISTAN
The Taliban need help from the west: Trump wants Bagram base. Israel is ready to help
Let us see how this plays out
Tens of thousands in urgent need of shelter after Afghan quake, aid group says
By ReutersToday, 5:49 pm
Tens of thousands of families left homeless after a powerful earthquake in Afghanistan urgently need shelter as winter approaches, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) says.
The 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck on the night of August 31 into September 1, killing more than 2,200 people and destroying more than 8,000 homes, according to the IFRC.
“With more than 1.3 million people directly and indirectly affected, many families are still living in tents, makeshift shelters, or under the open sky,” the IFRC says in a statement.
“As winter sets in, tents are not enough. Families need safe, warm and dignified shelter to survive the freezing months ahead,” says Joy Singhal, Interim Head of Delegation, IFRC Afghanistan.
More than 11,000 displaced people are living in temporary camps in Kunar Province, where the Afghan Red Crescent is providing tents, hot meals, clean water, and essential household items.
The IFRC says its Emergency Appeal of CHF 25 million ($31.37 million) has only received one-third of the funding needed. Without more money, it will not be able to scale up much-needed shelter, food and protection for families and women, it said.
The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned in September that women and children are facing particular protection risks due to unsafe conditions, lack of privacy and limited access to basic services.
The IFRC warned that Afghanistan faces multiple crises, including widespread malnutrition and the return of more than 1.7 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan in 2025.
ISRAEL
Israeli Knesset Advances Bill To Execute Palestinian Prisoners Who Killed Jews
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 06:50 PM
In yet another development which will certainly complicate current Trump administration efforts to find peace in Gaza, the National Security Committee in the Israeli Knesset is advancing a bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinian prisoners detained for killing Israelis.
Killings which are deemed motivated by “racism or hostility to the public” or aimed at harming the “State of Israel” or seeking to thwart the “revival of the Jewish people” would be a capital offensive, according to the legislation. Interestingly, the wording highlights Jewish citizens of Israel are the priority – and not for example Christian, Muslim, or Druze citizens.
It has unleashed immediate controversy both within and outside of Israel. For starters, some Israeli officials as well as families of Oct.7 victims fear that this puts the remaining hostages in Gaza at immediate risk. Notably, the bill does not apply the opposite direction – that is, it would not apply to Israelis who kill Palestinians.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s coordinator for negotiations on the captives, Gal Hirsch, has gone on record as vehemently opposing the bill.
“It’s not for nothing that we are asking not to hold this discussion. I completely disagree with your assessment of the situation, Minister [Itamar] Ben Gvir,” he said in a communication protesting the initiative. “Especially when we are engaged in a combined military and diplomatic effort to bring back the hostages, this discussion does not help us.”
An initial Sunday Knesset committee vote was 4-1 in favor, while more of rounds of votes needed for the bill to become law, according to protocol.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has been leading the charge, resisting calls to postpone the vote due to the precariousness of the hostage situation.
One Palestinian rights group had this to say:
The Israeli bill was denounced by the Palestinian Commission for Detainees’ Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoner Society as an “unprecedented savagery,” warning that it would entrench what they described as “systematic crimes” against detainees through legislation.
Increasingly, there have been shootings and terroristic attacks by Palestinians in places like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, related to ongoing events in Gaza and the West Bank.
Harsh confines at Israeli prison where Palestinians are kept:
At times, Palestinian encounters with Jewish settlers in the West Bank has also resulted in shootings and killings. This legislation would have a further chilling effect on Palestinian villagers and farmers when settlers show up to take their land, given that if they fight back, they could be facing the death penalty.
END
Why are there no mass protests for Hamas to accept Trump Gaza peace plan? – analysis
Despite Israel agreeing to the plan, there have been no mass protests in the street, no flotillas, no building occupations to exert pressure on Hamas to end the war.
A PRO-PALESTINIAN protest takes place in Chicago on October 8, 2023.(photo credit: ERIC COX/REUTERS)ByMICHAEL STARROCTOBER 1, 2025 14:03
Since the October 7 Massacre, “ceasefire now” has been the rallying cry for activists demanding that Israel cease its military operations against Hamas in Gaza.
The slogan was emblazoned on banners in street marches, stated in speeches by politicians across the world, and featured in open letters by celebrities. Activists demanded a “permanent ceasefire” to end hostilities, ostensibly to save the lives of civilians caught in the crossfire.
Yet after a comprehensive peace proposal was presented by President Donald Trump on Monday, and it received the backing of major Middle Eastern powers, including Turkey and Qatar, there was silence from the “ceasefire now” activists in the best case, outright rejection at the worst.
J
Despite Israel agreeing to a phased plan which would end the fighting, release hostages, rebuild Gaza, and lay the groundwork for moderate governance, there have been no mass protests in the street, no flotillas, no building occupations to exert pressure on Hamas to end the war.
While the coalition of radicals and trend followers chanted “ceasefire now” on award stages and in city streets, supposedly because they were so desperate to end a “genocide,” the alleged mass murder and ethnic cleansing in Gaza appeared to lose its imperative. A ceasefire is suitable to end a genocide, but apparently, peace is too great a price.
Activists demanded “ceasefire now” of Israel, but seem unwilling to demand “peace now” of Hamas. This is because peace was never the objective.
A ceasefire, even a so-called “permanent ceasefire,” is an end to hostilities where the battle lines lie, not a peace that is negotiated to solve the underlying points of conflict between the two parties. The most problematic point of contention between Israel and Hamas, from the perspective of many revolutionary activists in the West, is the continued existence of the State of Israel.
Peace would mean the tacit acceptance of the Jewish state, while ceasefire offers a respite to resume the fight another day. A ceasefire provides the opportunity for Hamas and its ilk to rearm, reorganize, and recruit for a future fight — in the same cycle of operations 2008 Cast Lead, 2012 Pillar of Defense, 2014 Protective Edge, and 2021 Guardians of the Wall.
Committing to a ceasefire
The commitment to a ceasefire as a first step in a belated war against Israel was made evident in January, when a ceasefire and hostage deal were reached between Israel and Hamas. Activists quickly shifted their slogan from “ceasefire now” to “Ceasefire today, liberation tomorrow.”
“The Ceasefire in Gaza is a victory for the Palestinian people and the global struggle for liberation,” the People’s Forum said Wednesday on X/Twitter. “The struggle against imperialism and Zionism has advanced, and there is no going back. This ceasefire is just the beginning. The struggle to end the occupation and achieve full independence for the Palestinian people will continue with unwavering determination. A new phase in the struggle begins now, and we will not rest until total liberation – from the river to the sea.”
The same strategy was echoed by the Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL), CODEPINK, and affiliates of the Shut it Down For Palestine coalition.
“Ceasefire today, liberation tomorrow. We honor the steadfastness, determination, strength, resilience, and courage of the Palestinian people. This is a victory for resistance and those who refused to abandon the path of liberation,” said Within Our Lifetime. “We applaud a ceasefire as an effort to preserve the lives of the Palestinian people, and we will continue the struggle for the complete liberation of Palestine from the river to the sea. Since the beginning, we have made clear that a ceasefire is only a first step in the struggle for true justice against the imperialist Zionist and US war machine.”
A term repeated by several activists and groups in relation to the January ceasefire was “victory” — a refrain of military outcome. The strategic objective of Hamas and its Western supporters to survive to fight another day was met by the ceasefire.
The declarations of victory stand in stark contrast to the reactions to the Monday peace plan, which was characterized in a different military framing: “Surrender.”
CODEPINK co-founder Medea Benjamin said on Monday on X/Twitter that the plan was a “demand of surrender” to colonial and imperial powers. WOL leader Nerdeen Kiswani called it a “A complete political surrender of Palestinian resistance.”
“The Palestinians must reject this surrender deal,” 5Pillars editor Roshan Muhammed Salih said on social media.
The problem of the peace plan was that it did not allow Hamas a strategic respite, but if implemented as planned would remove the terrorist group’s abilities to fight and control the Gaza strip. Most of all, the plan would give up on the dream of Israel’s destruction.
Activists rejected the deal’s proposal to disarm Hamas, because it removed the option of continued fighting. Electronic Intifada director Ali Abunimah said that disarming Hamas but not Israel revealed the plan to be evil. US model Bella Hadid’s sister, Alana Hadid, said in an Instagram video that demilitarization just means stripping Palestinians of any ability to resist occupation while Israel keeps its full military arsenal.”
Ousting of Hamas from political control of its territory to a transitional government would likewise preclude the ability to be able to restore its former strength. Far from seeing the potential groundwork for a free and democratic Palestinian polity, activists see the “resistance” losing ground in a long-term war.
“Trump and [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu call this a peace plan, but it’s nothing more than a blueprint for permanent occupation,” Benjamin said in a video.
Kiswani derided the potential replacement of Hamas with a planned reformed Palestinian Authority, as imposing “Israel’s subcontractor” on Gaza.With no arms or territory to continue a future fight, activists would be denied the dream of a Palestinian state “from the river to the sea” in Israel’s stead.
True peace, it was argued by several groups and activists, came from the “justice” of “liberation,” which anti-Israel groups detailed in January meant the destruction and replacement of Israel.
Global Sumud Flotilla steering committee member Yasemin Acar said on Instagram that the plan “offered terms of surrender, not terms of justice.”
Acar, calling on pro-Palestinian activists to stand in solidarity with Gazans in their fight for liberation.
“Colonizers don’t get to define peace,” she said. “Justice comes before negotiation. This is a fight for liberation and for our shared humanity.”
Hadid explained in her video that any end to the conflict had to involve justice – the ending of the blockade and “occupation.”
Disarming and decommissioning Hamas would mean the end of the decades long military campaign against Israel. There are no calls of “peace now” on academic campuses because they would be calls for Hamas to “surrender.”
With “Peace” meaning “surrender” and “ceasefire” meaning “victory,” anti-Israel activists have shown that the fighting isn’t the issue, the problem is who is winning.
RUSSIA/MIDDLE EAST
Kremlin ‘Supports & Welcomes’ Trump’s Gaza Plan, But Will Have No Involvement
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 04:15 AM
“Russia always supports and welcomes any efforts by President Trump aimed at ending this ongoing tragedy,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday, offering Moscow’s first reaction to the White House’s newly unveiled 20-point plan for Gaza peace.
“Of course, we want this plan to be implemented and for it to help bring events in the Middle East to a peaceful conclusion,” Peskov added, though without commenting on specifics.
He only mentioned that Russia was not part of the US ceasefire plan or consulted, though key Arab nations did, led by Qatar and Egypt, which dubbed the initiative “sincere”. Even the Palestinian Authority has welcomed Trump’s “sincere and determined efforts.”
However, many points remain very controversial, especially a ‘Peace Board’ headed by Trump himself, which will oversee the disarming of Hamas. Additionally, the president made clear that if the Palestinian militant group doesn’t agree to the plan, then Israel will have the full backing of the United States to “finish the job”.
The plan actually calls for a partial Israeli military withdrawal within the Strip and the handing over of all remaining Israeli hostages, living and deceased.
Trump ended Monday’s presentation of the plan alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by warning that Hamas must accept the plan or face the consequences. He has since warned the group has “three or four days” to respond.
Trump declared that both Israeli and Arab leaders had accepted the proposal and “we’re just waiting for Hamas.” Though in reality it doesn’t look like Hamas or the Palestinians had any real part to play in hashing out the conditions of the plan.
He even stipulated that at this late point, there’s “not much” room for negotiations and that: “Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it’s not, it’s going to be a very sad end.”
Meanwhile, on Tuesday…
- TRUMP: SO DISAPPOINTED IN PRESIDENT PUTIN
- TRUMP: PUTIN SHOULD’VE HAD THAT WAR DONE IN A WEEK
Other world leaders, including Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, welcomed the Gaza plan on Monday. He posted on X that it “provides a viable pathway to long term and sustainable peace, security and development for the Palestinian and Israeli people, as also for the larger West Asian region.”
He added: “We hope that all concerned will come together behind President Trump’s initiative and support this effort to end conflict and secure peace.”
SYRIA
WEST BANK
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Tylenol Maker Said In Internal Emails Evidence Of Link To Autism ‘Starting To Feel Heavy’
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 08:40 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The manufacturer of Tylenol was keeping tabs on research into the drug and neurodevelopmental issues such as autism, and concluded in 2018 that evidence of a link between them was becoming significant, according to newly disclosed documents.
In a Feb. 8, 2018, email obtained by The Epoch Times, Rachel Weinstein, director of epidemiology at Johnson & Johnson subsidiary Janssen, wrote, “The weight of evidence is starting to feel heavy to me.”
Weinstein was emailing Jesse Berlin, Johnson & Johnson’s global head of epidemiology, about a review that concluded that nine studies suggested that use of acetaminophen—the active ingredient in Tylenol—by pregnant women was linked to autism and other neurodevelopmental issues in the women’s children.
Weinstein said that Janssen had been discussing with a neurologist about how acetaminophen could be beneficial.
“But now we’ve added the studies in prenatal exposure and neurodev [sic] outcome,” she said.
Berlin wrote that he read the review and that “there appears to be some specificity of the association.” While he took issue with how some papers did not analyze other drugs, “at least one study looked separately at specific indications and the association didn’t go away,” he said.
Johnson & Johnson was the maker of Tylenol for years. In 2023, a newly created company called Kenvue took over the Tylenol brand and other consumer brands.
“These documents show we were doing exactly the right thing,” a spokesperson for Kenvue told The Epoch Times in an email. “We have continuously evaluated the science, and there is no credible evidence that taking acetaminophen causes autism.”
‘Difficult Options’
Dr. Jørn Olsen of Aarhus University in Denmark and other researchers in 2014 released an observational study that determined maternal acetaminophen use during pregnancy was linked to a higher risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder-like behavioral problems or hyperkinetic disorders in their children.
Weinstein, in an email, told Olsen that the study had strengths but wondered whether the researchers had tried assessing any association between other drugs pregnant women take, such as aspirin, and the disorders. Olsen, in a brief reply, said the researchers planned to look at those drugs in future studies.
Weinstein forwarded the email to the company’s consumer medical safety division.
“Recall that we have ruled out the possibility of conducting a database study of our own because other existing databases would be underpowered to detect the same effect that the Danish study found, due to the lack of a large enough database,” she wrote in her email.
She asked whether the question for the company was whether there was a willingness to support Olsen “up to a reasonable amount with the provision that the investigator has final say on publication but the sponsor can review and comment on the manuscript prior to publication.”
Weinstein told Berlin that there were several options, including funding Olsen. They could also try to replicate Olsen’s study, conducted in Denmark, with Norwegian data on prescriptions and diagnoses, and by including other drugs.
“The outcome of such a study is unknown. We could end up confirming the Danish findings, for example,” she said.
She later drafted a note to Olsen that initially said Johnson & Johnson would be happy to work with him on additional research. Berlin in response proposed revisions. But Weinstein then told Berlin she was having second thoughts on engaging Olsen.
“Do we really need to stick our neck out and make this offer? Would we be surprised if the new analyses confirmed or did not confirm the existing studies?” she asked.
Berlin responded: “I’m trying to think through what we would do based on what we learn. I don’t have a huge problem abandoning this, if that’s where we end up after talking.”
Weinstein, who is now retired, could not be reached for comment. Berlin, now a professor at Rutgers University, did not respond to a request for comment.
Internal slides from around the time of the emails, obtained by The Epoch Times, stated that the company declined to pursue a collaboration with Danish researchers in part because executives were unsure about “the value to pregnant consumers,” who might be presented with “difficult options” such as “don’t use anything if you have a fever.”
Lawyer: ‘Irresponsible’
The emails came to light in lawsuits brought by women who say they should have been warned by Johnson & Johnson and retailers about the risks of neurodevelopmental problems associated with acetaminophen products.
The women have pointed to papers such as a 2020 prospective study in Canada that found an increased risk of ADHD among children born to women who used acetaminophen while pregnant.
“Drugmakers have a legal and ethical obligation to continually investigate the safety of their products. Yet despite recognizing the heavy weight of the scientific evidence years ago, Kenvue scientists made a deliberate decision not to ’stick our necks’ out to commission further research,” Ashley Keller, senior partner at law firm Keller Postman, which is representing the women in multiple cases, told The Epoch Times via email.
The emails were first reported by the Daily Caller and drew the attention of the White House and the Department of Health and Human Services.
Government officials recently warned the public that Tylenol use during pregnancy may be associated with autism in children born to the mothers.
‘We Have Been Looking at It’
Weinstein said in a 2023 deposition that it would be unethical to run a randomized, controlled trial seeking to figure out whether there was a link between in utero acetaminophen exposure and neurodevelopmental problems. It would be good to do “more tightly controlled” observational studies, or research utilizing sources such as medical claims databases, she said.
Weinstein also said that Johnson & Johnson had been tracking literature on the topic for nearly a decade, including epidemiological, safety, and preclinical studies.
She said that the company has “essentially done a systematic review,” or an analysis of strong studies on the matter.
She said the company would be publishing the review but did not know when.
Internal slides from 2018, obtained by The Epoch Times, described the results of a company analysis of 16 studies regarding prenatal exposure to acetaminophen and neurodevelopmental disorders.
The slides stated that individual observational studies “show a somewhat consistent association of increased occurrence of neurodevelopmental outcomes with prenatal exposure,” with strengths including some studies being prospective. Limitations included researchers measuring children at different ages, such as 18 months and seven years.
A 2022 internal Kenvue slide deck stated that 12 studies featuring clinically diagnosed endpoints were analyzed. The studies were “too limited in methodological or analytical design to draw conclusions regarding a causal relationship between prenatal acetaminophen use and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in children,” and therefore, if acetaminophen is used as directed, it is safe to use during pregnancy, the slide deck stated.
A review coauthored by Kenvue scientists and funded by Kenvue was published by Critical Reviews in Toxicology in February.
The authors of the review said that they reviewed preclinical studies and determined that the data “demonstrates no consistent evidence of adverse effects following developmental exposure to acetaminophen at therapeutic and/or non-systemically toxic doses on the structure and function of the nervous system, including neuroanatomical, neurotransmission, and behavioral endpoints.”
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, September 22-28, 2025
Clinton lawyer Robert B. Barnet; evangelist Voddie Baucham Jr.; footballers Bill Ferrario, Rudi Johnson, Matt Vrzal; gambling “icon” Ernie Stevens Jr.; PGA golfer Jake Knapp’s girlfriend (28); & more
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 1 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Note: This week’s “died suddenly” compilation covers six days instead of the usual seven.
UNITED STATES (57)
Powerhouse attorney Robert B. Barnett, known for representing the Obamas and Clintons, dies
September 26, 2025
NEW YORK, NY — Robert B. Barnett, a powerhouse Washington attorney who became a fixture in the political and publishing worlds as the literary representative for Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton and dozens of other leaders, has died at age 79. One of Barnett’s partners at Williams & Connolly, Michael F. O’Connor, told The Associated Press that he died Thursday night at Sibley Memorial Hospital of an “undisclosed illness.” Additional details were not immediately available.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
No cause of death reported.
Voddie Baucham Jr. dies at 56 after medical emergency
September 25, 2025
Voddie Baucham Jr., a prominent evangelical preacher, author and educator, has died at the age of 56. According to a statement posted Thursday by Founders Ministries, Baucham died earlier in the day following an “emergency medical incident.” Baucham had previously faced serious health challenges, including a heart failure diagnosis in 2021 that required treatment at the Mayo Clinic in Florida. Baucham was the founding president of Founders Seminary in Cape Coral, Florida, and served on the board of Founders Ministries. Baucham was a vocal critic of public education, feminism and critical race theory—positions that earned him both a devoted following and significant criticism.
No cause of death reported.
Bill Ferrario, former Wisconsin standout lineman who played in NFL for Packers, dead at 47
September 25, 2025
Bill Ferrario, a former NFL offensive lineman who was a standout for the Wisconsin Badgers, has died, according to an online obituary. He was 47. Ferrario died “unexpectedly” on Wednesday, according to The Times-Tribune in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where Ferrario was born. His death occurred two days after his birthday.
No cause of death reported.
Rudi Johnson, former Cincinnati Bengals Pro Bowl running back, dies, apparently by suicide, at 45
September 23, 2025
Former Pro Bowl running back Rudi Johnson — a three-time 1,000-yard rusher who holds multiple Cincinnati Bengals records — has died, apparently by suicide, Florida authorities said Tuesday, as his agent called for more resources to combat chronic brain damage. The Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office is investigating the death of Johnson, 45, though “no foul play [is] suspected,” it said in a statement. “All indications are leading to suicide,” Detective Joseph Peguero told NBC News. Miami-Dade Fire Rescue responded to call in Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, at about 11:13 ET Monday to treat and transport an “adult trauma alert patient,” the agency said. Johnson’s agent, Peter Schaffer, said he hopes Johnson’s death will spur more research into chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, a degenerative brain disease linked to repeated blows to the head.
Nebraska mourns former Cornhusker and beloved business owner
September 26, 2025
GRAND ISLAND, Neb. – Former Husker, coach, and pizzeria owner Matt Vrzal has died at the age of 51, according to multiple reports. Originally from Grand Island, Vrzal owned Piezon’s Pizzeria in Omaha. He also served as a coach and radio host, frequently appearing on local sports shows. Vrzal is remembered for his time as a Cornhusker, walking on at Nebraska in 1992 and contributing to the team’s National Championship victories in 1994 and 1995.
No cause of death reported.
Gaming icon Ernie Stevens Jr. oversaw record-breaking growth in tribal gaming
September 26, 2025
Wisconsin – Ernest L. “Ernie” Stevens Jr. — who led the powerful Indian Gaming [gambling] Association for more than 20 years while working to help others through community activism — died suddenly on Friday, Sept. 26. He was 66.
No cause of death reported.
Makena White, Girlfriend of Star PGA Golfer Jake Knapp, Dies at 28
September 26, 2025
PGA golfer Jake Knapp’s girlfriend, Makena White, has died at age 28, her friend announced on social media. A post from a friend on White’s Instagram account on Friday, Sept. 26 says, “Hi everyone – this is Makena’s friend, writing with the heaviest heart to share that Makena passed away earlier this week.” Additional information about the cause of White’s death has not been made available.
Cheyenne City Council Stunned By Sudden Death Of Longtime Councilman Scott Roybal
September 26, 2025
CHEYENNE, WY — Friends and fellow Cheyenne City Council members say they are still reeling from the news Friday of the death of longtime Councilman Scott Roybal [65]. Roybal was the longest-tenured member of the council, first elected to a four-year term in 1996 and served until 2000. He returned to city government in 2015 and continued to serve until his death. Mayor Collins confirmed to Cowboy State Daily that the Cheyenne Police Department responded to Roybal’s home Friday morning after receiving reports of an unresponsive male. They identified that person as Roybal and declared him deceased on the scene. “To my knowledge, there is nothing suspicious about what happened,” Collins said. “It’s just an unfortunate death.”
No cause of death reported.
Sunbury City Councilman John Barnhart passes away unexpectedly
September 23, 2025
SUNBURY, Pa. — “He was a true American patriot because he just wanted to serve his community in whichever way it was,” said Josh Brosious, the mayor of Sunbury. Sunbury City Councilman John Barnhart passed away suddenly in his late 60s on Monday afternoon. He died doing what he loved. “He passed away unexpectedly up at the Bloomsburg fair working his food trailer, and you know, I’m glad that was where it was at, because he loved that food trailer, he was up at the Bloomsburg fair, he was so proud to get his food trailer in there,” said Brosious.
No cause of death reported.
69-year-old American man dies during the Mugello Marathon
September 28, 2025
Florence, Italy – Tragedy at the Mugello Marathon, the 51st edition of the race was marked by the sudden death of one of the participants. The event organizers announced the news: “On the sporting front, the event provided thrills with the half marathon (21 km) and the marathon (42 km), rewarding the athletes’ efforts with top-level podium finishes that confirm the prestige of Italy’s oldest marathon. Alongside the joy, however, the day was marred by a painful moment. During the race, a 69-year-old American tourist, Gregory Helbig, on vacation in Italy with his daughter and an avid marathon runner for 39 years, suddenly felt unwell. Rescue efforts were swift: volunteers, medical staff, and a helicopter rescue team did everything they could. After an initial improvement, Gregory unfortunately passed away.”
No cause of death reported.
Two children “died suddenly”:
North Ridgeville 2nd grader dies after ‘sudden illness’
September 28, 2025
NORTH RIDGEVILLE, Ohio – A second-grade student at Liberty Elementary School in North Ridgeville tragically passed away this weekend after a sudden illness, a message to families stated. The North Ridgeville City Schools said it would not share the student’s name out of respect for the family.
No age or cause of death reported.
Boy, 7, dies following medical emergency at St. Cloud school
September 23, 2025
The incident sparked a major emergency response to Westwood Elementary School last week. A 7-year-old boy has died after suffering a medical emergency at a school in St. Cloud [MN] last week. St. Cloud Police Department has confirmed that the boy, a student at Westwood Elementary School, stopped breathing last Tuesday. It sparked a major emergency response to the school, with paramedics performing CPR on the boy, who was then brought to St. Cloud Hospital. From there he was transferred to Hennepin County Medical Center, where he later died.
No cause of death reported.
Three teenagers “died suddenly”:
Missing Plainsboro teen found dead near Grover’s Mill Road, police investigating
September 23, 2025
PLAINSBORO, NJ – An investigation is underway after a 17-year-old township boy who was reported missing late Sept. 21 was found dead several hours later. NJ101.5 reported West Windsor-Plainsboro Superintendent David Aderhold identified the teen as Alan Zheng, a 12th-grade student at High School North. He was a member of the swim team. Around 7:45 a.m. Sept. 22 the teen was found unresponsive in the nearby area of Grover’s Mill Road. He was pronounced dead at the scene, according to the prosecutor’s office.
No cause of death reported.
19-Year-Old Student Found Dead Inside Ohio State’s Football Stadium
September 28, 2025
An Ohio State University student has been found dead inside the school’s football stadium. Fire officials in Columbus responded to a call to the scene on Friday, Sept. 26, at 9:56 a.m. local time, per The Columbus Dispatch. In a statement obtained by PEOPLE, the university confirmed that there was a “fatality at the stadium” that morning and identified the deceased student as 19-year-old William Meyers of Fairfield, Conn. “Foul play is not suspected and there is no ongoing threat to the community,” the university added in the statement. Meyers’ cause of death has not yet been released.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWISE
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Video: 25 Men Ransack California Jewelry Store in $1 Million HeistA mob of masked thieves stormed a jewelry store in San Ramon, California, on Monday, stealing about $1 million worth of merchandise.The brazen daylight heist involved as many as 30 suspects armed with crowbars and pickaxes.Smash-and-GrabSurveillance footage showed the thieves rushing into Heller Jewelers.They smashed display cases with heavy tools.The mob quickly grabbed whatever jewelry they could find.A San Ramon …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| MUST-WATCH: New Surveillance Footage of Dallas ICE Shooting Shows Heroic Agents Helping Detainees Amid Barrage of BulletsFederal agents at the Dallas ICE facility were seen taking cover and assisting detainees as a left-wing gunman fired shots into the building. Two people are dead, including the shooter, in a shooting at a Dallas ICE facility as an act of targeted violence, the FBI said on Wednesday. Among the deceased is one detainee; a second detainee was critically …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| FBI ‘Secretly Sent’ 274 Undercover Agents to U.S. Capitol on January 6A report says the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) deployed 274 plainclothes agents to the U.S. Capitol when the January 6, 2021, protests erupted. The Just the News article published on Thursday said the agency “secretly deployed” those agents, citing an after-action report that has remained under wraps for the past few years. “Scores of FBI agents and personnel – …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BREAKING UPDATE: Biden-Appointed Judge Assigned to Oversee Comey’s Criminal CaseA Biden-appointed judge was assigned to oversee James Comey’s criminal case on Thursday evening. Former FBI Director James Comey was indicted on two counts by a grand jury in the Eastern District of Virginia – false statements and obstruction. James Comey will reportedly surrender on Friday morning Comey will be arraigned on October 9. Former US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NEW SHOCKING DETAILS: Federal Officials Say Dallas Shooter Wanted To Kill ICE Agents, Not DetaineesThe sniper who opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Dallas Wednesday morning intended to kill immigration agents, not detainees, federal authorities said Thursday. Joshua Jahn, 29, sprayed bullets indiscriminately into the facility as he stood on a nearby rooftop, killing one detainee and leaving two others seriously injured before turning the gun on himself. After conducting …READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Exxon Planning To Cut 2,000 Jobs Worldwide
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Exxon plans to cut about 2,000 jobs worldwide as part of its years-long effort to streamline operations and consolidate smaller offices into regional hubs, according to Bloomberg.
The reductions, equal to roughly 3%–4% of its workforce, were announced in a memo to employees from CEO Darren Woods on Tuesday.
Bloomberg writes that Exxon received attention Monday when Imperial Oil Ltd. — nearly 70% owned by Exxon — disclosed it would reduce its workforce by 20%. Combined, the moves highlight a sweeping restructuring effort that Woods has pursued since 2019 to simplify Exxon’s sprawling global footprint, a legacy of its merger with Mobil two decades ago.
Woods said the company is making “tough decisions” to sharpen competitiveness. “The changes we’ve announced today will further strengthen our advantages and grow the gap with our competition, helping to keep us in the lead for decades to come,” he told employees.
The company declined to comment beyond the memo, but noted that its new hubs will focus on growth areas like oil in Guyana, liquefied natural gas along the Gulf Coast, and global trading. As part of the shift, employees in Brussels and Leatherhead, U.K., are being moved to central London to align with the firm’s trading operations.
When Woods took over in 2017, Exxon had nine semi-independent units that created layers of bureaucracy and duplication. Now the company operates with three divisions — production, refining, and low-carbon — supported by shared services such as IT and engineering. That structure has already helped Exxon cut $13.5 billion in annual costs, more than all other international oil majors combined. The company, which employed 61,000 people at the end of 2024, expects to boost savings another 30% by 2030.
Exxon is hardly alone in trimming staff. As we have noted over the past few months…Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP have also each announced thousands of job cuts in recent months as crude prices faltered under pressure from OPEC and its allies.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1752 UP 0.0018 PTS OR 18 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 147.12 DOWN 0.911 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3469 UP .0026 OR 26 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3919 DOWN 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED HOLIDAY
Hang Seng CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.01 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 381.78 PTS OR 0.85%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3893.95
silver:$47.35
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.30 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.102% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.644% DOWN 3/4 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.151 UP 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.236 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.541 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6994 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1752 UP 0.0017 OR 17 basis points
USA/Japan: 146.75 DOWN 1.264 OR YEN IS UP 126 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6840 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.496 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0016 OR 16 BASIS pts to 1.3934
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN ATXXXX CLOSED CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1240
TURKISH LIRA: 41.59 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.643 DOWN 3/4 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.151 UP 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.095% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.704 DOWN 0 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.541 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 3868.90
SILVER AT 10;00: 47.37
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 96.00 PTS OR 0.92%
GERMAN DAX: UP 232.90 pts or 0.98%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 71.01 pts or 0.90%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 63.80pts or 0.41%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 354.26 or 0.83%
WTI Oil price 62.52 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.34 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.21 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 68/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.155 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.711 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1733 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3483 UP .0041 OR 41 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6950 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.498 DOWN 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.645 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.142 UP 0 AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.13 DOWN 0.890 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3941 UP 0.0017 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 62.02
Brent OIL: 65.56
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.110
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 PTS to 4.718%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 3.547%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.195 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.744 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.40 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.59 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.50 UP 0 AND 40/100 roubles //
GOLD $3864.55 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 47.40 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 43.15 OR 0.03%
NASDAQ 100 UP 95.15 PTS OR 0.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.04 DOWN 0.24 PTS OR 1.47%
GLD: $ 356.03 UP .56 PTS OR 0.16%
SLV/ $42.91 UP 0.56 PTS OR OR 1.27%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 114.31 PTS OR 0.38%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Celebrate Government Shutdown By Surging To New Record High
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks and bonds bid as traders boost rate cut bets after weak ADP – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 04:15 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar mixed, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US government shutdown takes effect, WH says layoffs are imminent; US ADP unexpectedly turns negative, prior revised to negative; ISM Mfg rises marginally above expectations; Trump to meet with Xi in four weeks, Soybeans will be a major topic; EU reportedly to raise import tariffs on foreign steel, expected at 50%; Mixed Japanese Tankan survey; RBI maintains Repo Rate as expected; EIA crude stocks post bigger-than-expected build; NKE beats on EPS & rev.
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Goods/Services Imports (Aug), Swiss CPI (Sep), EZ Unemployment (Aug), US Challenger Layoffs (Sep). Shutdown: Due to the US shutdown, as it stands, the following data will not be released – Weekly Claims, Factory Orders (Aug), Durable Goods Rev. (Aug). Speakers: BoJ’s Uchida; Fed’s Logan; ECB’s de Guindos; BoC’s Mendes. Supply: Spain, France, UK.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks added to recent gains despite overnight weakness following the government shutdown. Outperformance was in the Nasdaq while sectors were more mixed. Health Care was the clear laggard as the sector continues to benefit from Trump’s clarification on the sector, with the latest agreement with Pfizer (PFE) showing the administration is not going to be as aggressive against pharmaceutical companies as initially thought, particularly after Trump’s triple-digit tariff threat. On the flip side, materials underperformed with weakness in some chemical names like LYB and FMC, weighing. T-notes bull steepened in response to the soft ADP data, which bolstered Fed rate cut bets with markets now fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut in October. Upside was also seen ahead of the data on the government shutdown, which supported havens in general, particularly the Yen and Gold, albeit gold prices fell off its best levels on likely profit taking, with the data having little impact on the yellow metal. Elsewhere, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was largely in line with expectations, remaining in contractionary territory, but internals were more mixed. In FX, the Dollar Index was lower while the Yen outperformed, but the Swiss Franc lagged. Crude prices were lower, likely weighed on by Saudi Aramco’s surprise LPG price cut, which could help bolster its sales amid increasing competition. Note, on Thursday, the weekly jobless claims data will not be released due to the government shutdown. Attention will turn to speeches from BoJ’s Ueda overnight, Treasury Secretary Bessent in the morning, and Fed’s Logan later on.
US
ADP: The ADP Private Payrolls report, which has extra focus this month due to the government shutdown, was overall very weak. Private employers cut 32k jobs in September, well below the consensus of +50k and the most pessimistic forecast of +23k, while the prior was revised down to -3k from +54k. It also announced it conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the report in September based on the FY 24 QCEW results, which led to a reduction of 43k jobs in September vs the pre-benchmarked data. On wages, the median change in annual pay for job stayers rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, while for job changers it fell to 6.6% from 7.1%. ADP’s Richardson says that “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.”
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI: The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 from 48.7, a touch above the 49.0 forecast, but remained in contractionary territory for the seventh consecutive month. Within the report, New Orders fell to 48.9 from 51.4, while the Backlog of Orders Index rose to 46.2 from 44.7. The Supplier Deliveries index rose to 52.6 from 51.3, indicating slower deliveries than in August. The Prices Paid component eased to 61.9 from 63.7, beneath the 63.2 forecast. Oxford Economics highlights that this may suggest the peak impact from tariffs on prices may have passed, but sectoral tariffs could send this higher again. Employment rose to 45.3 from 43.8. Summarising the report, ISM’s Spence says, “In September, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate, with production growth the biggest factor in the 0.4-percentage point gain of the Manufacturing PMI”. However, the combined drops in the New Orders and Inventories indexes (4.2 points) exceeded the increase in the Production Index (3.2), rendering the Manufacturing PMI improvement negligible. Last month’s increase in new orders seems to have flowed through to production, but does not appear to be sustainable given the subsequent drop in new orders in September. On tariffs, some respondents said that profits are down and tariffs are being shouldered by all companies in their space (transportation and equipment). A respondent in the chemical products business said tariffs are still causing issues with imported goods into the US, not only on cost concerns but also on documentation issues. A respondent in miscellaneous manufacturing said that “Steel tariffs are killing us.” Overall, Oxford Economics writes that lower interest rates, reduced political uncertainty and a fiscal boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill will take time to filter through the manufacturing sector.
FED’s LOGAN (2026 voter): Reiterated her known hawkish stance, saying that the Fed will be cautious in any further reductions. The Dallas Fed President said financial conditions are a tailwind now, and this is evidence that policy is only modestly restrictive. She added that it is not clear how much further the Fed can cut before hitting neutral. The Dallas Fed President said the US may need further labour market slack to reach the inflation target of 2%. On inflation, said expectations cannot be taken for granted, and excluding tariff impacts, inflation may be as high as 2.4%, driven by non-housing services.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 11 TICKS HIGHER AT 112-27
T-notes bull steepen as the government enters shutdown and ADP paints another bleak picture of the labour market. At settlement, 2-year -6.1bps at 3.543%, 3-year -5.7bps at 3.556%, 5-year -5.4bps at 3.680%, 7-year -5.0bps at 3.876%, 10-year -4.4bps at 4.106%, 20-year -2.9bps at 4.679%, 30-year -1.9bps at 4.714%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.1bps at 3.220%, 3-year BEI -3.0bps at 2.678%, 5-year BEI -1.9bps at 2.429%, 10-year BEI -1.6bps at 2.336%, 30-year BEI -0.8bps at 2.243%.
THE DAY: T-notes were higher across the curve in a steeper fashion, primarily led by a woeful ADP report and government shutdown. T-notes hit session highs in the wake of the soft ADP jobs report, which is taking more focus this month amid the government shutdown and lack of official data from the BLS. The report saw private businesses cut 32k jobs, with the prior revised down to -3k from 54k, all well below analyst expectations. The weak jobs data saw rate cut bets boosted with a 25bps cut now fully priced for the October 29th Fed decision. Meanwhile, through the end of 2026, markets are pricing in a rate of 2.96%, below the Fed’s neutral rate estimate of 3.0%. Elsewhere, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data saw little reaction with the headline largely in line with expectations, while employment ticked up and prices paid eased. A lot of focus remains on the government shutdown, but so far the market is largely looking through it, albeit there are concerns on data quality if the shutdown is extended, as the BLS have stopped data acquisition activities in the meantime.
SUPPLY
- US sold 67bln of 17-week bills at a high rate of 3.785%, B/C 3.32x
- US to sell USD 90bln of 8-week bills (prev. 85bln) and USD 105bln of 4-week bills (prev. 100bln) on October 2nd; all to settle on October 7th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 25bps (prev. 24bps), Dec 47bps (prev. 44bps), January 59bps (prev. 54bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD (prev. 49bln) across counterparties (prev. 28)
- EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.09%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. 89bln) on September 30th.
- SOFR at 4.24% (prev. 4.13%), volumes at USD 3.148tln (prev. 2.893tln) on September 30th.
BLOCK TRADES
- 08:18EDT/13:18BST: 5.0k 2-Year T-Note Futures (ZTZ5) at 104-095
- 07:20EDT/12:20BST: 3.0k 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZNZ5) at 112-190
- 07:20EDT/12:20BST: 4.8k 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZFZ5) at 109-082
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.59 LOWER AT 61.78/BBL; BRENT (X5) SETTLED USD 0.68 LOWER AT USD 65.35/BBL
The crude complex was lower and likely weighed on by Saudi Aramco’s surprise LPG price cut. In the EZ morning benchmarks were initially contained, but saw some pressure, and although no clear headline driver, some touted the news that Saudi Aramco cut prices for LPG to the lowest since August ‘23, in a move that could help bolster sales amid rising competition with rivals. Vortexa writes, “A Saudi contract price that’s USD 50/T lower than anticipated signals a “supply battle” between the Middle East and the US”. Ahead of OPEC 8 on Sunday, the JMMC meeting ended, and no recommendations were given re. November production policy. Kpler’s base case is for a 137k BPD production increase. In the weekly EIA data, where fleeting downside was seen, crude saw a larger build than anticipated, against the surprise draw in the private figures. Distillates saw an unexpected build and Gasoline noticed a greater than forecast build, which were both in-fitting with the private data. Overall, crude production was up 4k to 13505mln. Elsewhere, newsflow was light on Wednesday as the US Government went into shutdown which will prevent the release of some key US data via jobless claims (Thurs) and NFP (Fri). For the record, WTI traded between USD 61.40-62.89/bbl and Brent USD 65.05-66.57/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.37% at 6,711, NDX +0.49% at 24,801, DJI +0.09% at 46,441, RUT +0.24% at 2,442
SECTORS: Health +3.01%, Utilities +0.92%, Technology +0.71%, Consumer Discretionary +0.69%, Real Estate -0.06%, Energy -0.04%, Consumer Staples -0.23%, Industrials -0.32%, Communication Services -0.81%, Financials -0.92%, Materials -1.17%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.99% at 5,585, Dax 40 +1.13% at 24,149, FTSE 100 +1.03% at 9,446, CAC 40 +0.90% at 7,967, FTSE MIB +0.83% at 43,080, IBEX 35 +0.54% at 15,558, PSI +1.05% at 8,041, SMI +2.02% at 12,354, AEX +0.57% at 948
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- US Energy Sec Wright said the Government will take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas (LAC) and separate 5% in its Thacker Pass project in Nevada.
- BlackRock’s GIP nears a USD 38bln takeover of AES (AES), including debt.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) won its licensing dispute with ARM (ARM).
- Samsung and SK Hynix to supply memory chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project. Of note for Micron (MU).
- Reddit (RDDT) – Downside attributed to ChatGPT massively reducing Reddit citations, and the traffic is now even close to early-year levels.
- BTIG corrected a recent report that overstated August’s weighted average 30+ day delinquencies. BTIG sees Upstart’s (UPST) at 6.2%, against the initial reporting of 11.2%.
- Doximity (DOCS) and Marvell (MRVL) downgraded at Goldman Sachs and TD Cowen, respectively.
- Sunrun (RUN) upgraded at Jefferies to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold.
- Alphabet’s (GOOG) Google has cut staff in its Cloud unit, Business Insider reports; Staff working on user experience projects were primarily affected.
- Intel (INTC) – Reportedly in early talks to add AMD (AMD) as a foundry customer, according to Semafor.
- US President Trump is delaying pharma tariffs to negotiate drug prices, Politico reports.
EARNINGS:
- Nike (NKE): EPS & revenue beat.
- Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): Top and bottom line missed expectations.
- Conagra Brands (CAG): Q1 adj. EPS and FY adj. EPS guidance topped expectations.
FX
The Dollar saw mixed performance against peers on Wednesday as performance diverged amidst the US government shutdown coming into effect and a surprise negative ADP reading. DXY came under pressure in the few hours that followed the government shutdown, with JPY save-haven status outweighing that of USD, with US equity futures also seeing pressure. US equities recovered throughout the day while choppy trade followed for the Dollar, facing a second wave of pressure after the ADP report printed -32k (exp. 50k, prev. 54k, rev. -3K), marking the third negative ADP reading seen this year. Fed pricing reacted on the dovish side, now fully pricing a 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting. Separately, ISM’s Manufacturing Survey was more or less in line, headline printed 49.1 (exp. 49), prices paid fell beneath expectations, and employment saw a M/M increase; USD saw a muted reaction on ISM. At the Fed, Logan (2026 voter, hawk) said the US may need further labour market slack to reach the inflation target of 2%. Into overnight trade, DXY sits at ~ 97.71 within an intraday range of 97.459-97.885.
JPY, NZD, GBP, NOK, and SEK took advantage of the US government shutdown, with JPY and NOK leading the gains. In Japan, the Tankan Survey was mixed. Large manufacturers’ sentiment improved slightly to 14 but still missed expectations, while non-manufacturers held firm at 34. The standout was capex, with big firms planning a strong 12.5% increase, well above forecasts, highlighting continued investment appetite; a small dip in the yen was seen with BoJ rate hike pricing unchanged, leaving the October meeting finely balanced. JPY’s safe-haven appeal now leaves USD/JPY at ~147.10 from earlier 148.22 highs.
EUR was little changed vs USD, with EZ inflation data having little follow-through into the currency pair. HICP Y/Y was 2.2% with the move above the 2% mark expected to be a temporary one, while supercore HICP stood at 2.3% and services ticked higher to 3.2% from 3.1%. Meanwhile, EZ manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 (prev. 49.5). The data is unlikely to change the ECB’s policy trajectory, whereby ~2bps of easing is priced by year-end.
CAD and CHF underperformed in the G10 space despite a lack of fundamentals/newsflow behind the move. BoC Minutes were a non-event where members, ahead of the Sept rate decision (cut by 25bps as expected), expected they could present a baseline projection for growth, inflation in the October Monetary Policy Report.
EMFX: The RBI maintained its Repo Rate at 5.50% as expected, in a unanimous decision. The Central Bank kept its “neutral” policy stance while lowering its 2026 CPI forecast to 2.6% (prev. 3.1%); INR saw a muted reaction. In Chile, economic activity growth was 0.5% Y/Y in August, beneath the expected 2%. The disappointing Imacec figures follow Chile experiencing its worst mining industry accident, with output at Coldelco’s El Teniente mine halted for over a week.
USA DATA RELEASES
wow!! jobs are cratering in the USA
ADP Payrolls Unexpectedly Crater To -32,000, Worst Since March 2023 And Below All Estimates
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025 – 08:33 AM
Ahead of today’s ADP print we said that traders will be especially focused on the otherwise unreliable number, since the government shutdown which hit at midnight means that this Friday’s payrolls report will likely not happen. Well, if that is the case, the market – and Fed – may well be expecting a jumbo 50bps rate cut again in 3 weeks, because moments ago ADP reported that in September, the US private sector shed 32,000 jobs, the worst print since March 2023…
… and far below the lowest estimate; in fact the print was a 6 sigma miss to estimates of which Pantheon’s +25K was the lowest.
Adding to the confusion is that the original number was actually well higher, at 11K, but after the ADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (which as a reminder eliminated 911K jobs from the Biden regime that were never actually there), there was a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data. The trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors.
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
As shown in the next chart, the decline was broad-based…
… with both goods and service producing sectors seeing a slide in jobs.
Looking at wages, job Stayers’ saw incomes post a modest improvement, rising from 4.4% (which was the slowest pace of growth since June 2021) to 4.5%, while ‘job changers’ are still seeing higher and rising incomes, although in September this number slumped to 6.6% from 7.1%.
And so, with Friday’s payrolls delayed and with ADP traditionally viewed as an unreliable source of information, expect data hungry traders to scour the interwebs for every possible third party provider of employment and labor data in hopes of figuring out just how bad the labor slide truly is.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Government Set To Shut Down At Midnight After Senate Fails To Pass Funding Bills
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 08:17 PM
Unless someone pulls a rabbit out of somewhere before midnight, the federal government will shut down when the clock strikes 12 tonight, after the Senate rejected two temporary funding bills (continuing resolutions), five hours before the deadline.
One resolution, sponsored by Democrats, was rejected 47-53 along party lines, while the Republican CR failed by 44-45.
Democrats insisted on the need to reverse healthcare related spending provisions contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and make COVID-era ACA enhanced premium tax credits permanent.
Republicans wanterd a short-term extension of current spending levels while lawmakers finalize appropriations for 2026.
So – get ready for LOTS of fun articles detailing the machinations of this bullshit over the next 2-3 weeks, and consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of a hat or shirt, or some patches, or a cool knife while you’re waiting for DC to figure out how they’re going to spend more of your money.
Related:
- JPMorgan Sees 70% Chance Of Shutdown Lasting 15 Days
- With Shutdown All But Assured, Goldman’s Full Government Shutdown Q&A
- Three-Week Shutdown Could Push Jobless Rate To 4.7%: Report
Meanwhile, the White House has ordered agenices to begin implementing government shutdown plans.
Did the Democrats walk into a trap?
As the Epoch Times notes further, Democrats say their plan is necessary to prevent a loss of health coverage by tens of millions of people and avoid a sharp increase in health insurance premiums.
Republicans have said the Democrats’ proposal would add $1.5 trillion in spending and is an unserious starting point for discussions.
A Sept. 29 meeting of congressional leaders with President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, failed to produce a resolution.
Ahead of the Senate vote, both parties doubled down on their position.
Democrats repeated their ideas that health care reform is vitally important and requires immediate action.
“Health care creates an urgency,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told The Epoch Times on Sept. 30. “Republicans are saying, ‘Agree to a clean CR and we’ll talk about this stuff later.’ But people get sick regardless of the Republican timetable.”
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) told reporters she would not trust Republicans’ word that they would negotiate over health care during the normal appropriations process.
“There’s no trust,” DeLauro said. “Remember McCarthy–Biden, they walked away from the deal,” she added, referring to a negotiated spending agreement in 2023 that was not passed into legislation.
Republicans continued to say that Democrats’ insistence on placing complex health-related negotiations on a short-term spending agreement was confusing and unnecessary.
“They’re kind of all over the map,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told The Epoch Times. “I can’t tell what they want.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Sept. 29 that he had made proposals to Republicans related to health care, but did not specify what they were.
When asked by The Epoch Times which health care issues Democrats were advancing, Blumenthal spoke instead about the urgency of addressing health care, adding, “I think it ends with some serious compromise on health care.”
During a White House press conference, Trump said the administration could do things that are “irreversible” during a shutdown, such as “cutting vast numbers” of federal workers.
“I think the record shows that he is firing people regardless of the shutdown,” Blumenthal said. “He just seems to be on that path.”
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) expressed optimism that the two sides could strike a deal centered on extending ACA enhanced premium tax credits.
“I just don’t think you’re going to have that much opposition on either side to giving an extension this year to the Obamacare subsidies,” Rounds told The Epoch Times.
Rounds said that could be coupled with a 45-day continuing resolution to allow further appropriations work. However, he said: “I don’t know whether Democrat leadership can actually accept not going to a shutdown. They may very well feel they have to do a shutdown just to show their far left base that they’ll do it.”
Jackson Richman contributed to this report.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//CONRAD BLACK
CONRAD BLACK…
Conrad Black: The United Nations Is Long Overdue For Sweeping Reforms
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Conrad Black via The Epoch Times
President Trump’s address to the United Nations last week was a historic speech and a tour de force. He made the point that the United Nations is a useless talking shop, incapable even of making its escalator and teleprompter work.
He identified the twin threats to the survival of Western civilization to be the uncontrolled flood of immigration from desperate and often chronically criminal people with no interest in becoming functioning citizens of a new jurisdiction, and the drive to reduce carbon dioxide on the mistaken theory that climate change is a threat to life itself.
These waves of illegal immigration are not immigration at all but only desperate masses fleeing adversity, while sheltering substantial numbers of very violent and dangerous criminals. It is an invasion, and resembles nothing so much as the barbarians pouring into the Western Roman Empire in the fourth and fifth centuries A.D., ahead of the more destructive and ferocious barbarians who followed them in the fifth century and completely overthrew the Western Roman Empire.
The president even revealed that the U.N. had made substantial financial contributions to subsidize illegal immigrants into the United States, who are now, at great expense and social stress, being systematically deported.
Trump unmistakably made the point that the U.N. is effectively a force for the destruction of its principal member states that pay its bills.
He accurately described anthropogenic climate change as the greatest hoax in history, and pointed out the immense cost to people in Western Europe due to increased home heating and gasoline expenses. Europe had reduced its carbon footprint by over 30 percent, but this was completely useless to the declared objective of reducing global emissions, as the total world carbon footprint at the same time increased by nearly 60 percent.
Trump also pointed out how hideously expensive wind and solar power are, and that they can only be extracted and used for electrical generation at all when the sun is out and the wind is blowing. He made a telling point that the Chinese manufacture most of the windmills for energy generation in the world, but don’t use any of them themselves. His illustrations of the fatuity of the policy of the United Nations and many of its member states in these matters were very graphic and unanswerable.
Having rubbed the nose of the 192 other member states in the mistakes and pretensions and hypocrisy of the organization, he directly addressed the two principal wars now in progress in the world.
He assaulted the hypocrisy of forgetting the origins of the present Gaza war: an invasion of Israel by Hamas, the massacre of 1,200 people, and the taking of 250 hostages, many of whom have been murdered in captivity, which violated an existing ceasefire. The only excuse for it has been the conviction of the anti-Israel terrorists that Israel does not have the right to survive as a Jewish state, and that the survival of a Palestinian state, which has been on offer for 25 years, would be invalid and meaningless if it existed alongside Israel.
Few things could be more obvious than that it will be impossible to have any lasting peace, where Israel’s neighbors believe that they cannot coexist with the Jewish state, and therefore will continue to harass and terrorize it indefinitely. Any peace based on the continued ability of the Arab terrorist regime to return indefinitely to this activity is no recipe for peace, but merely for continued terror and war. The fact that many of the U.N.’s member states have taken complete leave of these facts is merely indicative of the ineffectuality, hypocrisy, and irrelevance of the United Nations.
Trump’s comments on the Ukraine war are even more germane. He had gone to some lengths to conciliate Russia because he recognized that defeating Russia in a manner that was gratuitously humiliating could have the effect of driving that country more thoroughly and deeply into the arms of China. This could have the effect of producing an arrangement in which China moves 30 or 40 million of its surplus population into Siberia and exploits the resources of that area—as Russia has never been able to do (except for oil and gas)—in exchange for a royalty. This would reduce Russia to the status of a vassal of China and endow China with strategic resources that it has never had before. Obviously, this is an outcome that would be extremely unfortunate for the West, as it would effectively install China as the dominant force in the Eurasian land mass.
President Trump made it clear that he has now lost patience with President Putin’s bad faith as well as with the hypocrisy of America’s European allies. The Western European members of NATO have consistently besieged the United States to do the necessary to defeat the Russians, while themselves providing arms and munitions reasonably generously to Ukraine. But they have also been buying gas from Russia on a scale that effectively finances Russia’s conduct of the war. It was not so long ago that Europe was led by political figures of the stature of Margaret Thatcher, Helmut Kohl, Charles de Gaulle, and François Mitterrand, and it is inconceivable that those leaders would have been party to such contemptible double-dealing and humbug.
Trump noted that he would soon be attempting to reach an agreement with the Western European powers for alternative sources of energy other than Russia, at which point the United States would be prepared to impose severe sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Russia.
The Kremlin appears to be sleepwalking toward a serious reversal. Trump has got the isolationists in his own party off his back by persuading the European NATO members and Canada to raise their defense contribution to 5 percent of GDP, and using some of these funds to buy sophisticated military hardware from the United States and hand it on to Ukraine with revised rules of use and engagement. This will enable the Russian public to participate more fully in the war experience, and endure the attacks on civilian areas that the Russians have never ceased to rain down upon the Ukrainians.
The president’s description of Russia as a “paper tiger” was correct when it is not just facing the much smaller country of Ukraine, but rather all of NATO. Russia has a smaller GDP than Canada and only about 40 percent of the population of the United States, and has already taken more than a million casualties and suffered over 50,000 desertions and hundreds of thousands of conscription evasions in Ukraine.
It has been Trump’s policy to try to get a peace deal that avoided such a humiliation of Russia that it was driven permanently into the arms of China. But Putin’s conduct has been so dishonest and provoking that he has pushed himself into a corner. Unless he comes to his senses and begins negotiating in good faith on the basis of existing conditions on the ground and not wild fantasies about restoring Stalin’s USSR, he will bring down upon his country by far its greatest reversal since the disintegration of the Soviet Union 35 years ago.
President Trump’s address to the United Nations made it clear that the continuation of a terrorist entity on Israel’s border would not be tolerated, that Russian demands for the complete emasculation of Ukraine would not be accepted, and that the U.N. itself is in drastic need both of institutional reform and drastic revision of the authoritarian, anti-Western, socialistic dogma that guides the majority of its members.
The organization founded with great hopefulness by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945 has become a primal scream therapy center for the most failed and corrupt governments in the world. The serious and successful countries should sponsor profound reforms, and it may be that President Trump’s Sept. 23 address will be seen as the beginning of this long-overdue step.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 1, 2025 Issue 7588 | Independent View of the News |
| (Dallas Fed Pres) Logan Ushers in New Era of Debate on Fed’s Key Policy Tool – BBG The surprise was that it came from the president of the Dallas Fed rather than New York — the regional bank responsible for implementing the Fed’s policy moves. Moreover, it was quickly taken as a signal the Fed might be poised to move on this soon. The reaction underscored how Lorie Logan, who oversaw the central bank’s balance sheet at the New York Fed before taking the top job in Dallas in 2022, is seen on Wall Street as one of the foremost markets experts among senior Fed officials. She’s also viewed as a contender to succeed New York Fed President John Williams when he reaches mandatory retirement in 2028, and has been eyed by the Trump administration as a candidate for a slot on the Fed’s Board of Governors… . She spent most of her career at the New York Fed, rising from entry-level analyst to become one of its most senior officials… The fed funds market, where banks once lent to each other, unsecured and on an overnight basis, has largely shriveled. It’s been supplanted in the last 15 years by the market for collateralized repurchase agreements, another form of short-term lending known as repo. That market is open to a broader array of financial participants and better reflects the transmission of monetary policy through markets. Shifting away from the fed funds rate to a benchmark that tracks repo transactions, as Logan has suggested, would allow the Fed to operate in a more stable and established market, potentially increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-30/logan-ushers-in-new-era-of-debate-on-fed-s-key-policy-tool This passage from the above story induces us to recall a story from 1998 on the NY Fed’s dubious relationship with The Street: “Wall Street has long held a two-way conversation with the New York Fed — the central bank’s outpost in the heart of the nation’s financial capital. Experts from both sides hash out problems and test ideas, especially related to how markets react to central bank policy…” Long-Term Capital Bailout Spotlights a Fed ‘Radical’ By Jacob M. Schlesinger Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal Nov. 2, 1998 Mr. Fisher’s primary job is to run the Fed’s trading operation… He begins most weekdays at 5 a.m. by checking the status of overseas markets on a small bedside computer in his Maplewood, N.J., home, and ends them by 11 p.m. the same way. In between, Mr. Fisher swaps intelligence and rumors with traders and dealers from his office in the Fed’s 10th-floor executive suite that overlooks the trading floor he runs. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB909961092195882000 In the above story from 1998, the WSJ inadvertently revealed how some on the Street ‘traded and swapped stories and info’ with the NY Fed. It appeared in the WSJ’s ‘C’ (market) section. The WSJ had three sections then. When we saw the story, we contacted people about the stunning admission. A reporter discovered that the writer was new and did not realize what he had. Reporters told us the NY Fed refused to answer their inquiries about the story. Do you ‘swap intel & rumors’ with the NY Fed? Some big traders and hedge funds’ ‘edge’ is their ability to ‘swap intel & rumors’ with the Fed/connected. WALL STREET IS NOT HAPPY AT LOSING FISHER THE FIXER July 10, 2003 One extremely naive feature article on Fisher in the Wall Street Journal in November 1998 explained that Fisher back then was “the Fed’s eyes and ears on the inner workings of stock, bond and currency markets and is given a wide degree of latitude about deciding when certain events pose broader risks.”… “Mr. Fisher swaps intelligence and rumors with traders and dealers from his office in the Fed’s 10th floor executive suite that overlooks the trading floor he runs,” the Journal story said. A very odd piece of information for the Fed to leak. Its officials aren’t supposed to interact with traders and “swap” intelligence – isn’t that the same thing as inside information? There has been a rumor for a couple weeks that Fisher, a Democrat, was about to leave his post because he wasn’t given the job of heading the New York Fed… https://nypost.com/2003/07/10/wall-street-is-not-happy-at-losing-fisher-the-fixer/ It appears that Trump put a real dolt (Miran) on the Fed. ‘Questionable, Incomplete’: Wall Street Rejects Miran’s Fed Call – BBG Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran may still hope to persuade his central bank colleagues that there’s a case for dramatic reductions in interest rates… “We find some of his arguments questionable, others incomplete and almost none persuasive,” JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients… Speaking to the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 22, Miran called for outsize rate cuts… “With inflation running above target for more than four years, and consensus pointing to still-high inflation and modest unemployment in the years ahead, the burden of proof in arguing for extreme easing lies with Miran.” — Tom Orlik and Jamie Rush… “There is no support in this report for Stephen Miran’s suggestions that policy interest rates have to be cut right away, and by a lot,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note after Friday’s data. “Indeed, there is no recommendation in these numbers for any easing of monetary conditions at all!”… https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/questionable-incomplete-wall-street-rejects-miran-s-fed-call/ar-AA1Nxtju?ocid=BingNewsSerp Q3 Scoreboard: Info Tech +13.04%, Comm Serv +11.82%, Consumer Discretionary +9.36% Consumer Staples -2.9%, the only group with a Q3 decline. ESZs vacillated between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening on Tuesday until they broke down after the European opening. ESZs hit 6694.25 at 3:40 ET and then formed a moderate ‘megaphone (higher highs and lower lows). ESZs broke out to the upside when the afternoon arrived. Yes, Virginia, this was the illegal manipulation to boost Q3 performance that generates more fees for managers. ESZs soared to a daily high of 6743.50 at 15:52 ET. ESZs then fell to 6726.25 at 16:05 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Oil and gasoline declined sharply; the dollar fell a tad. Gold rallied moderately. The DJIA rallied 81.82 on value rotation out of Fangs/Mag 7 The illegal late ESZs manipulation boosted Q3 equity performance and managers’ fees. Negative aspects of previous session Gold hit another new high. USZs were -10/32 at the NYSE close. Fangs/Mag 7 declined modestly, not enough Q3 performance gaming; The DJTA fell 54.86. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will be the themes to start Q4? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6673.57 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6691.25; 6641.00 Trump on a shutdown: “Nothing is inevitable, but I would say it’s probably likely because [Democrats] want to give healthcare to illegal immigrants, which would destroy healthcare for everybody else… and I didn’t see them bend even a little bit when I said we can’t do that.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1973066944229048635 NYT: 65% of Americans (43% Dems) believe Democrats SHOULD NOT shut down the government https://x.com/NRSC/status/1973034665276764295 “Soros-Backed Leftist Group Behind Campaign to Force Government Shutdown” Indivisible — the organization behind many of the recent “No Kings” protests and other demonstrations part of the so-called “resistance” against President Donald Trump — has embarked on a recent effort to goad Senate Democrats to not come to a bipartisan funding agreement with their Republican colleagues and the president… “But in the last big funding fight, Chuck Schumer and a handful of other Dems surrendered—rolling over and letting Trump weaponize federal funds to rob our services, militarize our cities, and terrorize our communities,” the left wing group’s form continues. “That cannot happen again.”… https://t.co/aQ0hLoO9mO Schumer is shutting down the government because leftists annihilated him for agreeing to DJT’s Big Beautiful Bill and Chuckie fears he would lose a primary fight to AOC. @FoxNews: TABLES TURNED: Democrats are under fire as resurfaced clips show them slamming government shutdown tactics — the same ones they’re now accused of using. https://t.co/Vl7HGqrz7Z @profstonge: The federal government could “shut down” at midnight. If it happens it hands Trump a blank check to terminate every single federal program he doesn’t like. And it instantly puts the Federal budget into surplus. https://x.com/profstonge/status/1972624902378107214 @libsoftiktok: Hillary Clinton: “We should not give taxpayer funded healthcare benefits to illegal aliens or encourage illegal immigration.” I was told this is far-right extremism… https://t.co/mDwWCl7oms Bill Clinton was to the right of DJT on crime, fiscal spending, & some other issues. The major difference between the two: Slick is a globalist that greatly aided and abetted China; DJT is more transparent. Trump: “For many years, Americans have paid the highest prices anywhere in the world for prescription drugs… a major reason is that American consumers have been subsidizing Research and Development costs for the entire planet… it’s being changed as of today…” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1973054472046727434 Prez to unveil ‘Trump Rx’ website, vowing fair prescription drug prices The White House launches a “Trump Rx” website to give Americans the chance to buy drugs directly from the government rather than going through insurance… Pfizer has committed to investing $70 billion to shift drug manufacturing to the US from overseas, as well as fund research and development. “We’re working with other major pharmaceutical companies to secure similar agreements,” Trump added… https://nypost.com/2025/09/29/us-news/trump-live-updates-news-sept-29-30/ @faststocknewss: Pfizer CEO: Says Deal Meets All Four Trump Requests; Commits to Onshoring U.S. Medicines With 3-Year Grace Period, Exempt From 232 Tariffs; Will Refocus on Cancer, Obesity Drugs and Vaccines @kerpen: We have a massive public choice problem in health care because bad policies drove massive consolidation and now the hospital system is the biggest employer in every congressional district and a political gorilla. Step 1 to address this is to finally pass site-neutral. Philly Inquirer’s @JonathanTamari: Pew poll – approve/disapprove: Trump: 40/58 – almost unchanged since April; Rs in Congress: 36/61 – best since 2011; Ds in Congress: 24/73 (!!!) The Dem numbers are the worst by some distance Pew has measured going back at least to 2001 – lowest approval + highest disapproval. On Tuesday night, 3 Dem senators voted with GOP senators to keep the US government open via a stopgap spending bill. Alas, 60 votes are needed; so, the government will shut down at midnight. @SpeakerJohnson: Chuck Schumer “is afraid of AOC. He thinks he’s going to get challenged in the next election, so he has to ‘fight Trump,’ even if it means throwing the American people under the bus… https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1973170187437576392 In Tuesday’s missive we illustrated how dynamic gold bull markets can be and how AU goes wild at the end of the runs. There are a few things that can interrupt or end a robust gold bull market: The Fed tightens via halting reserve grow and/or meaningfully hiking rates; and a deflationary shock. After the ’87 Crash, during the denouement of the GFC of 2008, and other severe stock market declines, gold has declined sharply, sometimes with a month or two delay ala 1987. Gold was 1031.90 on March 17, 2008, when the Bear Stearns crisis appeared. It had rallied from 641.89 on 8/16/07 due to the burgeoning financial crisis. AU sank to 682.57 on October 24, 2008 on global asset liquidation and rabid dollar buying to cover institutionalized/commercial dollar shorts. Ergo, if you fear a significant stock market decline, you might want to lighten up on gold. After a deflationary shock and heavy stock liquidation, history shows gold will soar after the central bank and government panics and institutes extremely stimulative policies. White House withdraws E.J. Antoni nomination to lead BLS CNN reported earlier this month that Antoni was behind a social media account that posted derogatory remarks about gay people, attacked former Vice President Kamala Harris and featured conspiracy theories. https://www.axios.com/2025/09/30/antoni-trump-bureau-of-labor-statistics-head-pulled-reports Today – Traders will play for start of Q4 institutional buying, especially at or near the NYSE close. With Q3 portfolio rebalancing over, traders will play for the reverse dynamic that has dominated the market for the past week or so. This means buying stocks and selling bonds. A key could be Fangs/Mag 7 stocks. There has been a value rotation out of Fangs/ Mag 7 into DJIA and something DJTA stocks. Pro traders will try to discern if this dynamic is present ASAP. Traders are responding to the government shutdown by selling equity futures on Tuesday night. A prolonged shutdown could modestly reduce GDP; but it will reduce US spending and debt. ESUs are -23.25; NQUs are -109.50; Dec AU is +15.40; and USZs are -4/32 at 20:30 ET. Expected economic data: Sept ADP Employment Change 51k, Sept S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52; Sept ISM Mfg. 49, Prices Paid 62.9; Sept Construction Spending -0.1% m/m; Sept Wards Vehicle Sales 16.2m; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 12:15 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6467; 100-day MA: 6248; 150-day MA: 6021; 200-day MA: 6018 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,185; 100-day MA: 44,068; 150-day MA: 43,109; 200-day MA: 43,256 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6688.46 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5506.00 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6377.26 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6584.42 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6642.26 triggers a sell signal @ANMOLSAINII: Dem titular leader in the House Hakeem Jeffries GOES BERSERK on President Trump for posting a video that makes him look like a Mexican. “When I’m back in the Oval, SAY IT TO MY FACE!! Say it TO MY FACE.” https://x.com/ANMOLSAINII/status/1973053400200655178 @Rightanglenews: Democrat states such as New York and California are issuing CDLs to illegals as “no name given,” with Republican states like Oklahoma stating they have already apprehended over 125 illegals with such IDs. https://t.co/bsgxqdimnY Secretary of War Hegseth addressing a US generals and admirals’ conclave: “No more identity months, DEI offices, dudes in dresses. No more climate change worship. No more division, distraction, or gender delusion… As I said before and will say again, we are done with that Schiff.” https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1973050796242559223 “If women can make it, excellent. If not, it is what it is… It will also mean that weak men won’t qualify — because we’re not playing games. This is combat. This is life or death.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1973007611198107694 @EricLDaugh: SECRETARY OF WAR PETE HEGSETH: “To our enemies: FAFO.” “If necessary, our troops can translate that for you.” https://t.co/5udeaLZ3fI @secwar: “If the words I am speaking today are making your hearts sink, then you should do the honorable thing and RESIGN.” https://x.com/DOWResponse/status/1973018750929776926 @NEWSMAX: TRUMP on political correctness in the military: “The purposes of American military is not to protect anyone’s feelings. It’s to protect our republic.” “We will not be politically correct when it comes to defending American freedom.” https://t.co/bD3RCQpumH Virginia Republican Who Faced Death Threat Responds to Spanberger’s Attempt to Contextualize Rage – Virginia Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger claimed that her rallying cry for supporters to “let your rage fuel you” had nothing to do with the death threat against Virginia Republican Delegate Kim Taylor… “She keeps going back to this kind of divisive language, and it shows she’d rather stir people up with anger than actually bring folks together to solve problems,” Taylor added. “That might fire up her base, but it’s not what Virginia needs in a governor.” https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/09/29/virginia-republican-who-faced-death-threat-responds-spanbergers-attempt-contextualize-rage-comments/ @ViralNewsNYC: Insane footage of Mexican gangs running the streets of Brooklyn with machetes. Luckily, the Jewish community alongside the NYPD were able to stop something really bad from happening. Residence in the area have told me they are scared to leave their house… https://t.co/s2T7VFTFlR Chicago ‘Peacekeeper’ Program Linked Again to Crime, This Time a Police Attack https://t.co/AC8qwWfNcV @SubxNews: 6-year-old shot twice, and an adult shot inside a car on the Bishop Ford freeway. This crime will not be reported on Chicago crime statistics since the state police are handling it. This is one way Chicago has reduced its crime statistics – letting other jurisdictions handle the reports… https://t.co/OciahZHtKO @libsoftiktok: Rep Mikie Sherill (D) who’s running for NJ Governor nominated kids for the Naval Academy. Only 5 get in. Mikie Sherill oversees it. 2/5 are her own kids… 5 kids from NJ get in and 2 are her kids?? This reeks of corruption. https://t.co/3FcWDshZPw @DeAngelisCorey: Randi Weingarten says she wears a paperclip now because teachers wore paperclips “when there was a Nazi occupation” in Norway. (Is this unhinged person qualified to educate kids?) https://x.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1972873186422505913 Obama Library Funds Are Secretly Flowing to Dark Money Networks In 2022 and 2023, the Obama Foundation handed over $2 million to Tides, a group best known for serving as a clearinghouse for radical left-wing causes and for shielding donor identities. It should come as no surprise that George Soros heavily backs Tides, and Tides is directly tied to groups organizing anti-Israel protests… Tides has also handled donations for Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation… Construction on the 20-acre site in Jackson Park began years ago, with a ballooning price tag that has already exceeded $615 million, far above the initial $500 million projection… This entire project reeks of the kind of carefully crafted con job… https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/09/27/obama-library-funds-are-secretly-flowing-to-dark-money-networks-n4944199 @JMichaelWaller: Boston University has erased the military leader of the Pilgrims – Myles Standish – because Standish, like all of us, was racist. Standish and great Wampanoag Confederation sachem Massasoit were allies for life. Both kept peace among Plymouth colony and the Wampanoag tribes. https://t.co/YdO6x94QXU FBI takes 4 illegal immigrants in Portland into custody after lasers aimed at CBP aircraft https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-takes-4-illegal-immigrants-portland-into-custody-after-lasers-aimed-cbp-aircraft Hillary Clinton Sparks Backlash for Remarks Targeting White Christian Men https://www.lifezette.com/2025/09/hillary-clinton-sparks-backlash-for-remarks-targeting-white-christian-men-watch/ Hard-up man gifted $100K by influencer was then kidnapped, beaten and robbed by relatives: cops https://trib.al/RXVG8ww @EricLDaugh: Elon Musk just canceled his Netflix account after it was revealed that the platform is carrying a he/they-produced show called “Dead End Paranormal Park” advertised for 7-year-olds that pushes pro-transgender ideology on children. “I’m trans,” the character says in the show. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1973103145212321821 @libsoftiktok: An actual Netflix Comedy special called “Hannah Gadsby’s Gender Agenda” featuring Mx. Dahlia Belle. He’s a grown man who thinks he’s a woman and discusses his fake v**ina and gleefully mocks Christians. @netflix promoted this “comedy.” https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1973171341307289885 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
The Curious Tale Of Columbia Professor Daniel Richman
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 05:40 PM
Just The News is reporting that “Person 3” in the Comey indictment is not former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe but rather Columbia Professor Daniel Richman. According to the outlet, Richman is the former FBI employee in the indictment who allegedly leaked information about “Person 1,” who is believed to be Hillary Clinton. The report continues the long uncertainty over Richman’s role in these controversies. Richman has described himself as a friend, an FBI special employee, and the lawyer representing Comey at different times. He has also been a columnist and commentator, including for the site Lawfare run by Comey’s friend Ben Wittes. What Richman was doing at any given time remains strikingly uncertain. Professor Richman is not himself charged with any crime.
Richman’s fluid and changing roles are reminiscent of the debate over the role of Hunter Biden’s friend/lawyer/patron Kevin Morris. There was an evolution in the roles that Richman played over the years that left some of us confused as to his specific status at certain times.
At various points in the investigation, Richman alludes to being Comey’s lawyer, as well as a former aide and a friend. Comey used Richman as a conduit to the press and admitted that he was the means by which Comey leaked the contents of a memo that Comey improperly removed from the FBI after being fired.
The respected veteran investigative reporter Catherine Herridge reported on a June 2017 memorandum that documented a phone call with Richman and the so-called “Comey memos,” which detailed his conversations with President Trump.
According to sources, five days earlier, on June 8, 2017, Comey “asked Professor Richman to disclose the content of at least one of those memoranda to the press…”
In interviews, sources said that Richman was dismissive over the violation of federal rules stating “something to the effect of, ‘You do things by your rules’ and ‘I do things by my rules.’” Richman seemed to claim that he was serving as counsel and allegedly insisted that “there is a substantial extent to which I would raise attorney-client issues.” The suggestion was that, after leaving his position as a Justice Department adviser to Comey, he may have assumed the role as private counsel to Comey.
Richman admitted to media contacts but reportedly said that he did not think that he confirmed classified material from Comey to New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt.
Comey designated Richman as a Special Government Employee (SGE) at the FBI and subsequently utilized him as a conduit to the media. He gave him access to top-secret information, and Richman seems to have floated between Comey and other offices, such as the FBI’s General Counsel’s office.
The FBI said that “Comey instructed the FBI to hire Richman as a Special Government Employee” in 2015 and “to grant him a Top Secret clearance with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information.” It also said its investigation “revealed Comey also hired Richman, so Comey could discuss sensitive matters, including classified information, with someone outside of the FBI’s regular leadership. Comey also used Richman as a liaison to the media.”
Comey’s use of Richman shows how obsessed he was with his image and framing news stories about his tenure as director. Richman would serve as both an unnamed source and a named source in articles.
Richman admitted to agents that he routinely communicated on behalf of Comey with Times reporter Michael Schmidt, who published some of the non-public information that was the subject of past investigations.
According to FBI memos, Richman explained that his role was “to correct stories critical of Comey, the FBI and to shape future press coverage” outside the bureau’s official press office.
The different roles eventually seemed to cause Richman to resign. He sent an email to FBI officials in early February 2017 saying that “I am resigning my SGE status, and will thus not, as of today, be formally working for the Bureau in the immediate future.” He added that “my SGE status is limiting what I can do in my extracurricular life.”
Richman later joined Wittes, who has described himself as a friend of Comey as well as figures like Peter Strzok, at Lawfare. With Wittes, Richman has written highly critical columns of the Trump Administration.
Comey admitted to being a leaker through Richman. He was accused of being a leaker in other stories through other individuals. Andrew McCabe said that he leaked information on behalf of Comey. Likewise, an FBI memo said that a prior investigation “revealed [FBI General Counsel James] Baker to be one of the two sources” in a leak and “revealed Baker disclosed USG classified information to the NYT under the belief he was ultimately instructed and authorized to do so by then FBI Director James Comey.”
Just in the News reported that a “newly-unredacted portion [of a report] added that ‘Baker indicated FBI chief of staff James Rybicki instructed him (Baker) to disclose the information to the NYT, and Baker understood Rybicki was conveying this instruction and authorization from Comey.’”
The question is what Richman was at any given time in this scandal. Ethics rules tend to reinforce clear lines in the roles played by lawyers. Richman has been described as a “friend” by Comey, but Richman has suggested that he was at times serving as his personal lawyer. During his time as an SGE, Richman also seemed to shift in his focus. Richman’s first term as an SGE ended in 2016 and then Comey brought him back to work as a “consultant” for the FBI’s Office of General Counsel. A good portion of his portfolio at times seemed to be running interference for Comey with the media and protecting his image in the press.
Richman has not been charged with any crime or accused of any ethics violation in any of these dealings or positions. Some of us, however, are concerned by the fluidity of these roles over the years as government employee, private counsel, and friend.
Comey appeared to select Richman in part for his loyalty and Richman has continued to defend Comey. Now, Richman has a new role as the main witness in a criminal prosecution against Comey. It may be the only time in this scandal that his role as been singular and clear.
END
JIMMY KIMMEL…
Jimmy Kimmel’s Audience Numbers Implode After Brief Spike
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025 – 05:20 PM
Progressive late-night television is dying. The signals could not be more clear with Stephen Colbert’s cancellation due to $40 million losses every year on productions costs. If Colbert is failing, then nearly all late night shows a failing. Many analysts have been speculating that Jimmy Kimmel was next on the chopping block.
During the second quarter, Jimmy Kimmel Live! averaged 1.77 million total viewers. That’s down quite a bit from 2015, when Colbert joined the late-night lineup and Nielsen says Kimmel averaged 2.4 million total viewers. The leftist comedian has become infamous in the past five years for his political hot takes and overt hatred of conservatives, just as the majority of late night hosts have gravitated to propaganda rather than entertainment. This has not helped their audience ratings.
Then, Kimmel threw himself into the middle of the public turmoil over the Charlie Kirk assassination. His ABC “cancellation” was short lived and the show was back in a week. Broadcast affiliates Sinclair and Nexstar decided to bring Kimmel back and his return garnered 6.5 million viewers. Democrats cheered as if they had just won a political victory, but reality is not kind to the delusional.
In recent broadcasts, “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” averaged 2.3 million total viewers – A staggering 64% drop from the 6.5 million who tuned in for the much-hyped return. Kimmel shed even more viewers in the advertiser-coveted demographic of adults aged 25-54, with Thursday’s episode hemorrhaging 73% of viewers from the critical category.
It takes more than political controversy to save a dying show led by an unfunny comedian. ABC lost a perfect opportunity to get rid of a dud show and they blew it.
With disinformation talking points from social media in hand Kimmel attempted to spread the false claim that the shooting suspect, Tyler Robinson, was MAGA:
“We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it.”
This was part of a larger spin campaign by democrats and leftist groups to deflect blame (as they always do). The effort to lie to the public and paint Robinson as “right wing” was desperate and rabid. To this day, a large percentage of Democrats wrongly assume that Robinson, a gay man with a trans furry boyfriend and an affinity for Antifa slogans, is MAGA. Their trusted gatekeepers told them he is.
As more and more information was released to the public is became clear that militant woke rhetoric, incessantly repeated by Democrat politicians and late night talk show hosts over the past several years, was to blame for Charlie Kirk’s murder. The post-shooting celebration by millions of leftists across the country left no doubt who they are as a movement and what they are willing to do to get the power they want.
Democrats complained that Kimmel’s show being dropped was the same “cancel culture” that conservatives criticized the political left of using. The difference, though, i
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING OUR FAVOURITE CRAIG HEMKE
Extraordinarily Bullish for Gold & Silver -Craig Hemke
By Greg Hunter On September 30, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Financial writer, market analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke predicted at the beginning of 2025 that the US dollar would have a “vast devaluation.” One look at the explosive record setting gold and silver price gains and you can see this was a correct prediction, especially with the yellow metal. Hemke says, “It’s not that the gold is going up. The gold is not changing. Gold is gold. What is changing is the amount of dollars it takes to buy that ounce. The dollar is devaluing against gold. That’s how people need to look at it. Gold is your financial protection against this madness where we are just going to keep printing more and more dollars trying to service this incredible debt. We are recording this on the last day of the fiscal year. The US is going to run a $2 trillion deficit over the fiscal year. It’s only getting worse, and the dollars it takes to service that debt is growing. You just have incredible devaluation of what your dollar can buy. I just want to point this out: An ounce of gold is now $3,800–to buy one ounce. You go back 10 years ago, and it was $1,100 to buy one ounce of gold. You go back 5 years ago, and it took $2,000 to buy an ounce of gold. The gold is not changing. What is changing is the amount of dollars it takes to acquire it.”
Hemke contends there are many things driving the price of gold and silver higher. A few of the big drivers include: Central banks have been buying record amounts of gold since 2022, and they continue to do so. The Fed is on record basically saying that it will buy Treasuries (print money) in 2026 to make sure interest rates will not rise. (They call it yield curve control.) Hemke also says there is rapid depletion of physical gold and silver to the point that they may start running out and will be unable to deliver physical metal. Stablecoin is coming online to create demand for Treasuries. There is talk of revaluing the gold in Fort Knox to a much higher price to make the government’s balance sheet look healthier. The list goes on, and Hemke says, “The math is the math, and that’s why I can feel so confident about this. There is $2 trillion in new debt, and we are now just north of $37 trillion. It takes $1 trillion a year to simply service that debt. . .. This is extraordinarily bullish for gold and silver. You are basically enshrining negative real interest rates, which is what they are trying to do. In a sense, you are trying to pay off yesterday’s debt with cheaper dollars of tomorrow. That’s how they got us out of the massive debt to GDP hole after World War II, and that’s why they are going to try it again. It’s a massive devaluation of the currency. It’s bullish for all hard assets, not just gold and silver.”
In closing, Hemke says, “This system of leverage, non-allocated accounts and hypothecation has held sway now for almost 50 years. It’s that system that is dying. The price (of gold and silver) is going to go up regardless. Again, it’s not the gold or silver going up in value, it is the purchasing power of the dollar that is declining. I know some people are saying that silver is up to $48 again, and it’s going back to $18. I say probably not. They are telling you what is coming next year. . .. There are a lot of reasons why the price of gold and silver . . . can go considerably higher from here, and you don’t want to miss out.”
There is much more in the 48-minute interview.
After the Interview:
There is some free information on TFMetalsReport.com including Craig Hemke’s 2025 forecast called “Inversion Reversion.” The US dollar has, no doubt, devalued relative to gold and silver.
If you want to subscribe, use the promo code “Hunter,” and get your first month for $5. This offer is for monthly TFMetalsReport.com subscriptions only.
(USAWatchdog.com lists this code for its viewers as a courtesy and gets no monetary compensation from TFMetalsReport.com.)
SEE YOU ON FRIDAY.
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