XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,880.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/03/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/07/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 37
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 121
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 185
905 C ADM 27
TOTAL: 185 185
MONTH TO DATE: 30,403
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 185 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 18,500 OZ or 0.5754 TONNES
total notices so far: 30,403 contracts for 3,040,300 OR 94.566 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 55 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.275 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2876 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 14.370 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 13.240 MILLION OZ PLUS 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 14.885 MILLION OZ//(YESTERDAY;’S QUEUE JUMP OF 200,000 OZZ)
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 12.175 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 14.885 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH AN INITIAL HUGE 4.878 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.9704 TONNES, PLUS 8.2426 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.2326 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 48/68 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER RISE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1426 CONTRACTS OI TO 167,130 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 760 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 760 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 875 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1426 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 760 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2186 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.43 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 13.155 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.43 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 2,175.26 PTS OR 4.75% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.09%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1476/ Oil UP TO 61.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN HOLIDAY IN TRADING AT XXXX AND XXXX//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1476 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY ASTRONG SIZED 5,261 CONTRACTS TO 479,525 OI WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $38.40 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3965). WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1,296 CONTRACTS (OR 72.889 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED, MUCH TO MY HORROR AGAIN, FOR THE 4TH TIME THIS MONTH AND 3RD CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE, THAT WE HAD A STRONG 180 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING FOR 18,000 OZ OR 0.5598 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS IS MOST UNUSUAL AND IT SURELY LOOKS LIKE OUR CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND IS IN TURMOIL.
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON 4/5 OCCASIONS IN OCTOBER: IS 8.2426 TONNES OF GOLD
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 4 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES: TOTAL ISSUANCES 4 TIMES FOR 2650 CONTRACTS OR 26500 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 4 OCCASIONS: 8.2426 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 126.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 118 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA MEGA SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,434 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER/OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 953 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY/RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE (MARCHING TO WILLIAM TELL’S OVERTURE) WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSSES IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4. THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 4 ISSUANCES IS 2650 CONTRACTS FOR 26500 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING: 104.2326 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 242 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY;S 4.898 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO OUR INITIAL 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK. THIS WAS FOLLOWED ON OCT 2 , OCT 3, OCT 4 FOR 2150 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK//215,000 OZ//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 OCCASIONS IS 2,650 CONTRACTS FOR 265,000 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES.!
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT: 8.2426 TONNES
D) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
E) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
EQUALS
104.2326 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 3965 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3965 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 3965 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3965 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//FRIDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED SIZED 953 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING MASSIVE LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 4 ISSUANCES FOR 8.2436 TONNES
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY 0.9704 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPING WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 4 ISSUANCES OF 8.2426 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH IS 104.2326 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $38.40./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDA .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION) /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK,
SATURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/ SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS TOTAL OF 6.028 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.9704 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 8.2426 TONNES EX FOR RISK/4 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 104.2326 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38,40
WE HAD A HUGE 24,730 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1296 CONTRACTS OR 129600 0Z (6.028TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 6 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 2 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks customer account: 32,004.602oz ii) Into Loomis: 14,660.856 (456 kilobars) total deposit 46,665.458 OZ in tonnes: 1.452 tonnes total tonnage dealer and customer: 1.452 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 185 notice(s) 18500 OZ 0.5754 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 458 contracts 45,800OZ 1.424 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 30,403 notices 3,040,300 oz 94.566 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
total deposit dealer: nil oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks customer account: 32,004.602oz
ii) Into Loomis: 14,660.856 (456 kilobars)
total deposit 46,665.458 OZ
in tonnes: 1.452 tonnes
total tonnage dealer and customer: 1.452 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
0 entries
ADJUSTMENTs 2 both dealer to customer
a) Asahi 26,318.32 oz
b) JPMorgan 52,084.620 oz
(1620 kilobars)
volume at the comex: Friday: 230,839 oz (fair)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 643 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2258 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2570 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 312 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 31200 OZ OR 0.9704 TONNES OF GOLD. THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 95.99 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES A PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMP) PLUS OUR 8.2426 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 104.2326 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 42 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4461 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 4495 CONTRACTS UP TO 359,939 CONTRACTS.
We had 185 contracts filed for today representing 18,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 185 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 185 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (30,403 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 643 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (185 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,086,100 OZ OR 95.99 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 ISSUANCES OF 8.2426 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 104.2326 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (30,403 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (643 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2570 x 100 oz) which equals 3,086,100 OZ OR 95.99 TONNES + 8.2426 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER: 104.2326 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 104.2326 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,020,289.710 oz 62.83 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 40,157,547.616 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,471,502.824 or 667.85 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,686,049.792 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,945,121oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 605.02 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 6 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries a) Out of CNT 599,143.200 OZ b) Out of Stonex: 472,620.890 oz b) Out of Delaware 2936.500 oz total withdrawal: 1,074,701.090 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Loomis: 113,900.550 oz total deposit; 113,900.550 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 55 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.275 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 101 contracts (0.505 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2874 Contracts (14.370 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
i) Into Loomis: 113,900.550 oz
total deposit; 113,900.550 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries
a) Out of CNT 599,143.200 OZ
b) Out of Stonex: 472,620.890 oz
b) Out of Delaware 2936.500 oz
total withdrawal: 1,074,701.090 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 189.696 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 530.932 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 156 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 309 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 349 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 40 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 200,000 OZ.
STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 14.885 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER LOST 45 CONTRACTS UP TO 2508
DECEMBER GAINED 834 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 132,736
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 55 or 275,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 103,161 huge//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2874 X5,000 oz = 14.370 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (156) AND the number of notices served upon today (55 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (2874) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(156) minus number of notices served upon today (55)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 14.885 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 14.885 million oz which is HUGE for this NON active delivery month of OCT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 189.696 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.283/530.932million. 39.67%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1014.88 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 487.724 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
Jesse Colombo: “Soaring Gold” is Another Way of Saying “Currency Collapse”
| John RubinoOct 4 |
It’s fun watching our favorite asset go up. But keep in mind that, as a form of money, gold is actually an indicator of other currencies’ health. And the prognosis for those currencies is grim. Here’s an excerpt from a recent Jesse Colombo post that illustrates the point:
Gold Isn’t Going Up, Your Money Is Just Losing Value
Since 2007, major currencies have lost roughly 85% of their purchasing power relative to gold.
Whenever gold rises and I get excited as a gold investor, I’m often met with the familiar refrain: “Gold isn’t really going up, the dollar is just losing value.” I used to brush that off as a cliché or a game of semantics, and honestly, it annoyed me. But over time I decided to dig deeper. I started analyzing the data visually, which is my favorite way to learn, and that’s when it finally clicked. They were right. Gold wasn’t truly soaring; fiat currencies were quietly eroding. Since then I’ve made it a mission to help others see this clearly too, using compelling charts that drive the point home. That’s exactly what I’m going to show you today.
Let’s begin with a clear visual. The chart below shows gold’s performance since 2007 across several major world currencies: the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and Australian dollar. While this isn’t an exhaustive list of global currencies, it offers a solid and representative sample to support the points I’ll be making throughout this piece. As the chart reveals, gold has surged by around 450% in most of these currencies, with gains ranging from a low of 270% in Swiss francs to a staggering 748% in British pounds.
Next, I’ll present the same data from a different perspective. This time, I’ll highlight the purchasing power of each currency relative to gold, or in other words, how much physical gold each currency could buy over time.
Since 2007, the major world currencies featured in this report have lost approximately 85% of their purchasing power when measured against gold. On the low end, the Swiss franc has declined by about 73%, while the British pound has suffered the most, with an 88% loss.
This chart offers compelling visual evidence of a critical truth: it’s less about gold rising in value and more about fiat and paper currencies losing purchasing power at an alarming rate.
So why are we using gold as the yardstick? Because it’s the most reliable monetary yardstick in history. For over 6,000 years, gold has served humanity as the premier form of money and store of value. While it temporarily fell out of favor starting in the 1970s, it is now making a powerful comeback as the world begins to recognize the deep flaws in our fiat money and monetary system.
JAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Gold signals the end of fiat currencies
There is increasing evidence that the fiat currency era is drawing to a close. Like the canary in a coal mine, this is what a developing crisis in gold and silver derivatives indicates.
| Alasdair MacleodOct 5∙Paid |
Derivative dislocation is just the start…
With the ultimate insiders from central banks and governments downwards cleaning out bullion supplies and market liquidity, lease rates are soaring and backwardations are now common, notably in silver. The entire basis of paper contracts in precious metals is now undermined by the absence of physical liquidity, leaving delivery obligations at a growing risk of failure.
Disruption to these vital derivatives appears to be intensifying as prices rise. And there is little doubt that they will spike higher — probably much higher as the entire foundation of precious metal derivatives disintegrates. Given our repeated reasoning that the fiat currency system is coming to an end, it should be little surprise to regular readers to this Substack column that it is now being telegraphed by a developing crisis in precious metals.
This is not a repeat of the nickel crisis that hit the London Metal Exchange in March 2022 and was resolved by the cancelation of contracts. That was one major short failing to deliver metal in the required configuration. Gold and silver involve the entire market: declare force majeure and prices will spiral even higher.
To innocent bystanders, gold is in a bull market and silver too. For them it raises the question as to whether they should buy, or if they are lucky enough to have bought lower down to take some profits. It is entirely natural to think this way, but it would be a mistake.
Over long periods, gold’s purchasing power is relatively stable — the statistics are there to prove it. It is modern fiat currencies that decline in their purchasing power, so the right way to look at gold is to conclude that the currency is declining rather than gold rising.
For proof we only have to look at the evidence. 54 years ago, the fixed exchange rate with the dollar at $35 to the ounce, which was the basis for nearly all currency values, was abandoned. With the gold price today at over $3,800 the dollar has sunk to less than 1% of its 1971 value, measured in gold. Until 1971, under the Bretton Woods gold standard commodity and wholesale prices in dollars were remarkably steady. It is only since then that inflation, the common description for rising prices, has been a problem.
The before-and-after of 1971 is illustrated in the chart of WTI oil, with the pecked line marking the point that August when America ended the $35 gold peg.
The pressure for higher oil prices started soon after, leading the Americans to give in to the Saudis and OPEC on control of oil prices, in exchange for a commitment to price and to sell oil exclusively in dollars. Crude oil then rose from $3.56 per barrel ultimately to $140 in June 2008, with much volatility to this day. Meanwhile, the relative stability of oil priced in gold stands out.
It is a matter of fact that price volatility commenced when the dollar floated against gold and continues to this day. And it’s not confined to oil — all prices have risen multiple times, which can reflect only a decline in the dollar’s value, while that of gold remains relatively constant. But recently the decline in the dollar against gold has begun to accelerate, with economists seemingly unaware of the implications. This is reflected in the widening gap between commodities valued in gold compared with the dollar:
There is no doubt that Covid lockdowns had a major impact on currency values, which are still evolving. The expansion of government debt and the attendant suppression of interest rates led to an average doubling of commodity values between April 2020 and June 2022. This weakness in the dollar and other currencies relative to commodities was not initially reflected in gold, whose price in dollars rose broadly in line with commodities, outpacing the average only slightly. But as commodity prices stabilised in dollars, they declined significantly in gold between June 2022 and today to levels seen only at the height of the pandemic.
With its long-term price stability, gold is a proxy for the general level of commodities, which is why the relationship has persisted for as long as records exist. It is confirmed by the fiat dollar’s purchasing power declining since 1971, compared with that of gold being broadly maintained. The Invesco DB Commodity Index priced in gold is now at a substantial discount to its gold value, suggesting that the general level of commodity values even priced in gold should rise appreciably to close the gap.
Put more conventionally, valued in dollars whose purchasing power continues to decline, we should expect dollar commodity prices to rise significantly over the next two years. Therefore, the outlook for commodity-driven price inflation is being severely underestimated. And it will be the basis for a host of problems set to undermine faith in all fiat currency values in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the Fed and other G7 central banks have fuelled expectations that inflation is “transient,” allowing them to reduce interest rates into next year. And it is this expectation which is driving the credit bubble and asset values to new extremes.
Clearly, there is a shock in store. All credit bubbles come to a bad end, usually with higher bond yields, which are driven ultimately by risk assessment in the markets and not by central bank policy committees.
The 1918—2023 German experience compares
Following the First World War, the reichsmark weakened for two years before it stabilised and a credit boom fuelled the stock market. That lasted a further two years to December 1921, when the market crashed. It was followed by a collapse in the reichsmark’s purchasing power, which took less than two more years, recalled by economic historians as the great inflation. There is a worrying symmetry with our contemporary post-covid years as the table below illustrates.
We can now speculate how the fiat currency dollar-based system might evolve over the next year or two:
— An inflation shock begins, when currency purchasing powers measured in commodities, foodstuffs, and raw materials begin to decline unexpectedly.
— Bond yields rise, reflecting compensation demanded by market participants for the falling purchasing power of fiat currencies. G7 government finances deteriorate sharply as the doom-loops of debt traps are sprung, and zombie corporations cannot afford to refinance unproductive debt undermining lenders’ balance sheets.
— Simultaneously, the credit bubble bursts, leading to rapidly declining asset values, bankruptcies, and soaring counterparty risks in financial markets. Foreign holders of dollar assets sell down stocks, bonds, and dollars in a panic.
— Currencies’ purchasing powers decline at an accelerating rate, as the market’s faith in them is undermined by the effective bankruptcy of governments unable to fund their soaring welfare commitments as economies slump. Central banks have no alternative but to resort to rapid credit expansion through quantitative easing and near-cash funding. Welcome to the world as faced by the Reichsbank in 1922-23.
Unless a government is prepared to let a deep slump to run its course without intervening, to drastically reduce its own spending, and to take any other action necessary to end its fiat currency regime by binding its purchasing power to that of gold, its currency will decline at an accelerating rate without stopping. Indeed, so long as markets see that a government is powerless to stop the slide, the loss of faith in its currency will spread to its users, who will want rid of it.
The timing to activate these events appears to be close. The bursting of the credit bubble will probably be triggered by the U.S. long bond breaking above the 5% yield level. And as the chart below illustrates, the flag pattern preceding the next strong move to higher yields is close to completion.
Gold and silver are the principal refuges from this impending chaos.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 243/
5. COMMODITY REPORT SILVER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 2,175.26 PTS OR 4.75% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.09%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1476/ Oil UP TO 61.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN HOLIDAY IN TRADING AT XXXX AND XXXX//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1476 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED HOLIDAY
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1476
HANG SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
2. Nikkei closed UP 2175.26 PTS OR 4.75%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.11 EURO FALLS TO 1.1664 DOWN 72 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.686//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.07…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.293 UP 14 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7007// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.572 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.249
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.415
3j Gold at $3944.00 Silver at: 48.41 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 66 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.91
3m oil (WTI) into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.07/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.686% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.293 UP 14 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7991 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9318 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.145 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.751 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.576 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.70 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7290 UP 3 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.541 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.187 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.738 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Jump On Latest Burst Of AI Euphoria Amid Global Political Turmoil
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 08:33 AM
Stock futures are higher again as traders stay positive on the upcoming US earnings season, ignore the government shutdown (though federal unions are suing to prevent the furloughs from being converted into RIFs) and get a boost from the latest political shock in Japan where pro-stimulus Sanae Takaichi was picked as the next PM (shocking markets and sending the Nikkei soaring and the yen crashing) as well as the latest chip deal out of Nvidia and AMD. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3%, on pace for a new record high after the index gained more than 1% last week, with Nasdaq futs up 0.8% boosted by a 20% gain in AMD which soared after signing a chip deal with OpenAI that could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue. Tesla rose after teasing a product announcement. Comerica surged after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the financial services firm in a $10.9 billion deal. There was international drama: a surprise win for pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi in a ruling party leadership vote sent the yen and long-term bonds tumbling and equities surging to all-time highs; Japanese banking stocks underperformed. Meanwhile major European markets are all lower with France sliding more than 1% after French PM Sebastien Lecornu resigned, just a day after President Emmanuel Macron named a new cabinet that was broadly criticized. following the surprise resignation of its PM. In FX, the USD was poised for its strongest day since late Aug as USDJPY soared more than +2% and EURUSD tumbled -65bp after the French PM resigned after just 3 weeks. The yield curve is twisting steeper around the 2Y. In commodities, all 3 complexes are higher with WTI, natgas, and precious metals outperforming. The US economic calendar slate is blank for Monday, with all eyes on the govt shutdown in DC. The calendar this week is light due to the shutdown, with focus shifting to a long list of Fed speakers. Policymakers last week gave commentary around service inflation, a big contribution to stubbornly high CPI readings. Read more in our weekly review.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +2%, Nvidia -2.2%, Alphabet +0.3%, Microsoft +0.6%, Apple +0.5%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +0.3%)
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises 23% after inking a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact the chipmaker said could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue.
- Comerica Inc. (CMA) climbs 12% after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the bank for about $10.9 billion in stock.
- Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rallying after Bitcoin set another all-time high over the weekend, surpassing $125,000 early on Sunday.
- Critical Metals (CRML) shares surge 75% after Reuters reports Trump administration officials have discussed taking a stake in the metal mining company.
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY) rises 8% after the space and defense technology company said it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SciTec for about $855 million in cash and stock.
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) climbs 5% after Citizens upgraded the drug developer to market outperform, citing a stronger outlook for the company’s lead asset.
- Micron Technology (MU) is up 3.4% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, saying the chipmaker is headed for multiple quarters of double-digit price increases.
In corporate news, Nvidia’s major server production partner, Hon Hai Precision, reported 11% growth in quarterly sales, signaling healthy demand for chips and servers needed to develop AI. Boeing is said to be guiding suppliers that 737 Max output could reach a 42-jet monthly tempo as early as October, and laying the groundwork for more manufacturing ramp-ups next year.
Tech stocks led gains in premarket trading. AMD soared more than 20% after signing a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact the chipmaker said could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue. The two signed a definitive agreement for OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD graphics processing units over multiple years, the companies said Monday in a statement. AMD also gave OpenAI a warrant for as many as 160 million shares which will vest as milestones are achieved. Those targets require AMD’s stock price to continue to increase in value and future exercise points include a tranche tied to a share price of $600. AMD shares closed Friday at $164.67. AMD shares jumped as much as 28% to $211.18 in early trading, which would represent their biggest intraday gain in more than nine years if the rally holds when markets open. Nvidia erased earlier gains and was down 1.4%.
US companies are set to enjoy a better-than-expected earnings season as a robust economy and a solid outlook for artificial intelligence have left estimates looking too low, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. The team led by David Kostin also expect the Mag 7 group of technology heavyweights to beat expectations.
A number of private-sector indicators out last week pointed to a sluggish US labor market and moderation in demand, without raising alarm bells on the outlook for economic growth. That’s left traders confident the Fed will deliver another quarter-point cut in October, allowing them to look past the US government shutdown and the threat of firing federal workers.
“The base-case scenario remains one of slow but steady growth, continued disinflation, and a gradual rate-cutting cycle by the Fed toward year-end,” said Linh Tran, a market analyst at XS.com. “Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 is expected to maintain a measured upward trajectory, supported by improving corporate earnings, stable valuations, and persistent institutional inflows.”
There doesn’t seem to be an imminent end to the funding impasse in sight, and escalation is possible if Trump follows through on his threat to fire — rather than furlough — federal workers. Unions made an emergency request on Saturday night asking a US judge to immediately block any mass firings by the administration during the shutdown while they press a legal challenge.
In other assets, political turmoil and fiscal concerns in numerous countries are leading to a so-called “debasement trade,” boosting Bitcoin and gold to all-time highs while major currencies drop. Oil gained after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise production by a modest amount, staving off fears of a super-sized increase.
Elsewhere, European stocks dipped, with France’s CAC 40 benchmark plunging as much as 2.1% after the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu raised the likelihood of snap legislative elections. Bonds fell and the euro weakened. French lenders Societe Generale SA, Credit Agricole SA and BNP Paribas SA led declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as the nation’s 10-year yield jumped. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned just a day after President Emmanuel Macron named a new cabinet, deepening the country’s political crisis. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- Abivax shares gain as much as 4.7% following updated safety data for its medicine to treat a chronic inflammatory bowel disease
- Hannover Re shares rise as much as 2.8% after the reinsurer modified its dividend policy
- Redcare Pharmacy shares jump as much as 15%, the most since March 11, after the company reported prescription sales in Germany
- Aker BP shares rise as much as 3.5% after the oil and gas company reported quarterly production above expectations
- Nikon shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in more than two weeks, after disclosing that EssilorLuxottica SA has increased its shareholding
- Galderma shares advance as much as 1.6% before paring their gains after being upgraded to buy from hold by Vontobel
- Groupe SEB shares slide as much as 25%, to the lowest intraday since 2013, after the firm cut its full-year sales forecast
- Aston Martin shares drop as much as 11%, the most since April, after the company cut its volume guidance for the fiscal year
- QinetiQ shares fall as much as 7.9% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded its view on the British defense company to hold from buy
- Mondi shares drop as much as 16%, the most in almost 17 years, after the company warned challenging conditions are set to continue
Lecornu’s departure comes after his two predecessors were felled by the same problem: having to pass a budget through a fractured parliament that included unpopular spending cuts and tax increases needed to rein in the largest deficit in the euro area. That’s raising uncertainty about the outlook for the region’s second-largest economy.
“Alongside this political uncertainty/crisis, one can expect an economic one (sentiment is likely to deteriorate) given the uncertainty surrounding the wide budget deficit,” said Stephane Ekolo, a strategist at TFS Derivatives. “Banks and financials overall are likely in this uncertainty to be under pressure.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, headed for a sixth-straight daily gain, led by Japan after a surprise leadership victory for pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi. That offset losses in Hong Kong, while a number of markets were shut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.4%, poised for a new all-time high. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped as much as 4.6% to a record, with exporters getting a boost from a weaker yen. Chinese tech stocks slumped in Hong Kong after big recent gains. Volumes were thin amid holidays in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea. Poised to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning the ruling LDP’s leadership election, Takaichi is seen as positive for stocks due to her pro-growth plans and opposition to Bank of Japan tightening. Shares of defense firms including Mitsubishi Heavy and tech companies such as Advantest gained Monday on speculation they’ll benefit from government spending. Elsewhere in Asia, investors are awaiting central bank decisions later this week in New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. China’s markets will reopen Thursday following the Golden Week holiday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.6%, on track for its best daily performance since late July; USDJPY jumped as much as 2% to a two-month high of 150.44; the yen fell against all its major peers on speculation Takaichi’s victory in the ruling LDP’s leadership election on the weekend makes further BOJ hikes less likely. The EURUSD tumbled -65bp after the French PM resigned after just 3 weeks.
In rates, Treasuries hold curve-steepening losses that accumulated overnight amid a spike in Japanese long-end yields after Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory to lead the ruling party. The result stoked concerns that her pro-stimulus stance will lead to increased debt issuance. French bonds also sold off after President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of a continuity cabinet drew backlash. In the US, equities continue to look past the US government shutdown in its sixth day and the threat of firing federal workers. In the US, yields are 1bp-4.5bp cheaper across tenors with the 10-year around 4.16%; France bonds underperform bunds and Treasuries after Sebastien Lecornu resigned Monday, a day after Macron named a new cabinet. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday
In commoditis, spot gold is up $55 after notching another record high. Bitcoin climbs 1% after surpassing its previous record on Sunday. WTI crude futures rise 1.7% after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by a modest amount.
The US economic calendar slate, though blank for Monday, remains subject to delays from the ongoing government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Kansas City Fed’s Schmid at 5pm, speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The calendar this week is light due to the shutdown, with focus shifting to a long list of Fed speakers. Policymakers last week gave commentary around service inflation, a big contribution to stubbornly high CPI readings.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
- DAX little changed, CAC 40 -1.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.15%
- VIX +0.2 points at 16.84
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.5% at 1207.25
- euro -0.7% at $1.1664
- WTI crude +1.6% at $61.87/barrel
Top Overnight news
- Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister after the country’s ruling party elected her as its leader. The yen and long-term bonds fell while the Nikkei 225 jumped to a record. BBG
- France’s new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government resigned on Monday, hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet line-up, in a major deepening of France’s political crisis that drove stocks and the euro sharply lower. RTRS
- With Sanae Takaichi set to become Japan’s prime minister, advancing expansionist economic policies, chances have risen that the central bank will avoid raising interest rates this month, though the pause may not last if it batters the yen. BBG
- President Trump said Democrats are causing the shutdown and possible layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett separately commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
- Israel and Hamas begin mediated talks in Egypt today. A key sign of progress will be whether Hamas frees all the roughly 20 of its live hostages in return for Israel releasing about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. BBG
- House Republican leaders told members that they plan to stay away from Washington, D.C. during the government shutdown but are ready to get back to work as soon as Senate Democrats reopen the government.
- AMD inked a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact the chipmaker said could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue. AMD shares +22% premkt. BBG
- Trump called for big US homebuilders to start building homes and said they’re sitting on 2 mln empty lots, while he is asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get big homebuilders going and help restore the ‘American Dream’.
- Trump authorised the deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Illinois despite the objections of state officials, including Governor Pritzker.
- A Judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from sending California National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, and blocked the administration from sending Texas or other states’ National Guard to Oregon. It was also reported that California Governor Newsom will sue the Trump administration for sending California National Guard personnel to Oregon.
- On the US gov’t shutdown, Punchbowl surmises that as it stands “There’s no deal in sight to end the crisis”. “The notion of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer folding at this point seems very unlikely. Yet if you’re Schumer, you’re watching very closely how a handful of Democratic senators are posturing themselves as the shutdown impacts begin to accumulate”. “One Democratic senator told us that some colleagues who want to fold could justify doing so by pointing to the fact that the GOP stopgap funding bill gives Democrats another leverage point in just six weeks. However, this argument would cut against the party’s messaging…” with reference to the Obamacare expiry.
- U.S. sanctions make it nearly impossible to pay Iran for its oil. China has figured out how to do it anyway, in an arrangement that has largely been secret. The hidden funding conduit has deepened economic ties between the two U.S. rivals in defiance of Washington’s efforts to isolate Iran. WSJ
- During President Trump’s second term, China hawks in Washington fear that Trump is going soft. As Trump pursues a trade pact with the US’s biggest economic and strategic rival, advocates of a tougher China policy fear they’re being sidelined inside the administration as the tech industry’s influence grows — alongside the president’s appetite for what he’s called “a big deal.” BBG
- OpenAI’s Sam Altman approached TSMC, Foxconn, Samsung and SK Hynix to help secure supplies for computing capacity, the WSJ reported. BBG
- The White House is holding off from layoffs at least until today, economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNN, to see if Democrats cave when the Senate is due to vote on a stopgap bill. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- EU is pushing a new AI strategy to cut its tech reliance on the US and China, according to FT.
- Japan will expand the scope of anti-dumping duties to include indirect exports via third countries as China’s overproduction continues to hurt domestic industries, according to Nikkei.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum said she will present advances in made-in-Mexico tech EV, semiconductors, satellite and drone projects in the coming weeks, while she is confident, they will reach favourable agreements with the US and all nations worldwide regarding trade relations.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week mixed amid several holiday closures throughout the week and the ongoing US government shutdown, while Japanese markets rallied on hopes of fiscal loosening and a delay to BoJ policy normalisation following Sanae Takaichi’s LDP leadership victory, which sets her on course to become Japan’s first female PM. ASX 200 failed to sustain early marginal gains and retreated to back beneath the 9,000 level as losses in tech, healthcare, and the consumer sectors offset the strength in the commodity-related industries. Nikkei 225 rallied to fresh record highs above the 48,000 level as the JPY weakened amid expectations of fiscal support and a potential delay to BoJ policy normalisation after the LDP leadership election victory by Abe-protege Takaichi. Hang Seng declined amid the absence of mainland participants for most of the week due to the National Day ‘Golden Week’ holiday and with underperformance in casino stocks following the recent flooding from Typhoon Matmo.
Top Asian News
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Italy and hold the 12th joint meeting of the China-Italy government committee, and will visit Switzerland for a 4th round of the China-Switzerland foreign ministers-level strategic dialogue.
- NVIDIA’s (NVDA) major server production partner Hon Hai (2317 TT) reported quarterly sales rose 11% to TWD 2.06tln which reportedly signals healthy demand for AI infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
- Indonesia revoked its TikTok licence suspension after the social media platform submitted data that the Indonesian government requested, according to Bloomberg.
- Japan and the US are arranging a US President Trump-PM summit for October 28, via Kyodo
European bourses (-0.2%) opened mostly and modestly in the red, but then took a leg lower following news that French PM Lecornu resigned – this downside has since pared a touch. The CAC 40 currently trades towards session lows and down by around 1.9%. At present, it is unclear why the PM decided to resign, but it comes after recent cabinet appointments received criticism from opposing parties. The outgoing PM is currently on the wires, and we remain attentive for any reasoning for his decision – thereafter, the spotlight shifts to Macron to see if he a) decides to appoint a new PM, b) calls legislative elections, c) resigns – though in the past he has made it clear that he intends to see out his term. The National Rally said, “Macron must now choose: dissolution or resignation”, via France 24. European sectors hold a negative bias, with only a handful of industries managing to hold in the green. Energy tops the pile, with names boosted by strength in underlying oil prices. Telecoms follows in second spot, with Technology completing the top three. For the latter, ASML (+1.4%) received a PT upgrade at HSBC, now sees EUR 1,018 (prev. 809, currently 893). To the downside, French banks have slipped on the heightening political instability.
Top European News
- French PM Lecornu has resigned, presented his resignation to President Macron.
- French far-right National Rally (RN) Bardella says they are very close to position of voting out government.
- Roland Lescure is set to be named the new French Finance Minister and Bruno Le Maire is set to be appointed as the new French Defence Minister, according to BFM Television.
- French National Rally leader Bardella said the new PM Lecornu cabinet fails to break with the past, while a French socialist party official said the party will vote against the new government if there is no change in policies.
- French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure says there’s a feeling of consternation following the new governments appointment; cannot see how the PS would not be in position to vote against the government.
- Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’s populist ANO party won the parliamentary election, although it failed to achieve an overall majority with just under 35% of the vote to win 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, while he is seeking an agreement with two smaller groups, which are the populist Motorists and the anti-migration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD).
- The UK economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed amid a “chunky” revision to ONS data has increased doubts about how much households have been saving, according to The Times.
- ECB’s de Guindos says inflation risks are balanced; consumption has growth less than expected.
- ECB’s Lane reiterates a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance, with no-precommitment to a particular rate path”. “In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”
- ECB’s Pereira says that policy is entering a period of greater normalcy
LDP Election
- Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM.
- Japan’s newly elected LDP President Takaichi said they need speedy support for weak small- and medium-sized companies to help with wage growth, while she added that support is also needed for the farm sector, and urgent help is needed for the medical and nursing care sectors. Takaichi said one policy option is to increase subsidies to local governments and that she wants to submit a bill to abolish the extra gasoline tax and lower diesel fuel costs during the next parliament. Takaichi also said she won’t rule out lowering the consumption tax as an option and that they will honour the bilateral agreement made with the US. Furthermore, she noted that the government and BoJ need to be aligned on economic policy, while she added they will closely communicate with the BoJ until demand-led economic growth is achieved and wants to carefully consider whether the current government-BoJ accord is most appropriate.
- Credit Agricole Chief Japan Economist Aida, who is widely considered as a close advisor to LDP’s Takaichi, said in a note on Saturday that Takaichi will likely tolerate another 25bps BoJ rate hike by January next year if the economy is in firm shape. Such a move would be on condition that the BoJ maintains relatively loose monetary policy with no further rate hikes likely until 2027.
FX
- DXY has started the week very much on the front foot after last week’s losses, which were driven by a combination of uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown and softening labour market metrics. There hasn’t been a great deal of change in the US macro narrative with the US government still shut and the Trump administration stating that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that talks are going nowhere. Instead, today’s upside in the USD is driven more by the weakness in the JPY and EUR. DXY has ventured as high as 98.39 with the next upside target coming via the 26th September peak at 98.53.
- EUR/USD has slipped onto a 1.16 handle and below its 50DMA at 1.1680 as French political risk returns with a vengeance. Over the weekend, appointments to French PM Lecornu’s cabinet were met with stark objections from opposition parties with National Rally leader Bardella stating that the cabinet failed to break with the past. Earlier today, the Socialist Party leaders stated he couldn’t see how his party would not be in a position to vote against the government, given that the appointments failed to show a clear change in direction for the government. The political uncertainty saw the GE/FR spread hit its widest level since January with the move subsequently exacerbated (to 87bps) by the recent decision by Lecornu to resign. The next downside target for EUR/USD comes via the 25th September low at 1.1645.
- JPY is the standout laggard across the majors following the LDP leadership election win by Abe-protege Sanae Takaichi. Her victory has been viewed as a combination of looser fiscal policy and delayed BoJ rate hikes, which have triggered a notable steepening of the Japanese curve. Accordingly, markets have scaled back BoJ rate hike bets with money markets pricing around a 75% likelihood that the central bank will remain on hold in the October 30th meeting and just a 48% chance of a 25bps hike by December vs. 68% probability on Friday. Interestingly, Credit Agricole Chief Japan Economist Aida, who is widely considered as a close advisor to LDP’s Takaichi, said in a note on Saturday that Takaichi will likely “tolerate” another 25bps BoJ rate hike by January next year if the economy is in firm shape. 150.43 is the high watermark for USD/JPY thus far with the next upside target coming via the 1st August high at 150.91.
- GBP is softer vs. the USD but firmer vs. the EUR. It remains the case that aside from ongoing angst in the run-up to the November 26th budget, incremental macro drivers for the UK are lacking, and this could remain the case with the domestic data slate light this week. Over the weekend, The Times reported that the UK economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed amid a “chunky” revision to ONS data, which has increased doubts about how much households have been saving. Cable has slipped below Friday’s 1.3429 trough but is holding above the 2nd October low at 1.3400.
- Both antipodeans are softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. For NZD, focus this week is on Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision, which is set to see a reduction in the OCR.
Fixed Income
- 10yr JGB futures surged at the opening of trade, lifting from 135.88 to a 136.53 session high. In reaction to the appointment of Takaichi as LDP leader, with the market reacting to her preference towards looser fiscal and monetary policy. Thereafter, the 10yr JGB pulled back and reverted to below Friday’s close, hitting a 135.72 low with downside of just over 15 ticks at most on the session. A move that occurred as the Japanese curve, led by the ultra-long end, began to steepen as markets took the view that Takaichi’s appointment will delay BoJ tightening and policy normalisation, but not indefinitely.
- OATs were under pressure from the start of trade given the weekend updates by President Macron and PM Lecornu. Specifically, they announced a cabinet that was regarded as being a continuation of recent attempts, with Lescure set to be the new Finance Minister and Le Maire as Defence Minister. Since, PM Lecornu has presented his resignation to President Macron. A resignation that sent OATs to a 120.61 low with downside of just under a full point at worst. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread widened to a 88.2bps peak for the session, notching a fresh YTD best and approaching the 90bps 2024 high.
- USTs are under modest pressure this morning but within recent ranges. Down to a 112-13+ base, just above last week’s 112-08+ trough. For the most part, the debt market is focussed on above updates initially from Japan but since from France. Ahead, the US docket is a light one on account of the ongoing shutdown, though the Conference Board will still be releasing its Employment Trends Index; a figure that declined in August to 106.41, from a downwardly revised 107.13 in July, to its lowest level since early 2021.
- Bunds began the morning under modest pressure, reflecting the price action seen across the fixed income space in light of the pronounced turnaround seen in JGBs by then. Thereafter, the complex derived a bit of a haven bid on the resignation of French PM Lecornu, lifting to a 128.76 peak with gains of nine ticks at best. However, this proved fleeting, and Bunds have since reverted back to pre-Lecornu levels of c. 128.46.
- Gilts are lagging Bunds and USTs but faring better than OATs. Gapped lower by 22 ticks and then slipped 23 more to a 90.51 low just before the French PM resigned, then seeing some, relative, allure over the next 20/30 minutes before falling back towards session lows. Pressure for the UK comes as we count down to the Autumn Budget. Updates over the weekend include a report in The Times that the domestic economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed, as a “chunky” revision to ONS data has increased doubts about how much households have been saving. Next up, BoE’s Bailey.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks have pared back some of last week’s losses following OPEC+ meeting where the group agreed to raise production by 137k, which is seen as a modest hike compared to the 500k bpd hike reported last week. Benchmarks gapped higher and extended to a peak of USD 62.04/bbl and USD 65.71/bbl in WTI and Brent respectively before oscillating in a c. USD 0.60/bbl range.
- Spot gold continues to extend new ATHs, reaching USD 3950/oz, as growing fiscal concerns in major economies and political concerns in the US add to the momentum of the “debasement trade”. Thus far, XAU has reached a peak of USD 3950/oz before pulling back to USD 3940/oz. Markets await updates on the US government shutdown.
- Base metals briefly extended on last week’s gains before reversing lower amid lack of newsflow, with China still away on holiday. 3M LME Copper extended to USD 10.8k/t early in the APAC session before dipping to a low of USD 10.34k/t. Base metals are being weighed on as Indonesia continues to crack down on illegal mining, with the country handing over six seized tin smelters to state miner PT Timah.
- Eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by 137k bpd in November, citing a steady economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, while they will meet next on November 2nd.
- Qatar set the November marine crude Official Selling Price at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.00/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.05/bbl.
- Shell (SHEL LN) said US President Trump’s attacks on wind projects harm investment in the US and the decision to halt fully permitted offshore wind energy projects is very damaging to investment, according to FT.
- Saudi Arabia sets new November Arab light Crude oil OSP to NW Europe at plus USD 1.35/bbl to ice Brent settlement via Aramco. They’ve also set the November crude oil OSP to the USA at plus USD 3.70/bbl.
- Goldman Sachs open a trade recommendation to short Dec 2026 LME Aluminium contract Currently trading at USD 2650/t, 17% above Dec 2026 price forecast.
- Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 copper forecast to USD 10.5/t from USD 10k/t. Believes that copper prices are likely to remain above USD 10k following the Grasberg outage. Expects global copper market to move into deficit by the end of the decade and this should lift copper prices to beyond USD 11k/t from 2028.
- UBS says oil demand has likely peaked for 2025, should gradually fall in the months ahead. Expects Brent to remain in a USD 60-70/bbl band. While the OPEC+ production increase was 137k BPD for November, estimate the actual volume of additions will be only 60-70k BPD.
- Chevron (CVX) says that the Co. will be making operational adjustments to support the continued safe and reliable operation of the facility.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel and Hamas are set to begin mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt after US President Trump hailed Hamas’s offer to release all hostages, according to Bloomberg.
- Israeli government spokeswoman confirmed negotiations for the release of hostages are expected to begin on Monday and stated there is no ceasefire in place in Gaza, but there has been a temporary halt in certain bombings, while she added the military can continue to act in Gaza for defensive purposes.
- Israeli military spokesperson issued a warning for residents of Gaza City on Saturday morning and called on them to avoid returning north, while the spokesperson added that Gaza City remains a dangerous combat zone. It was separately reported by an Al Arabiya correspondent that violent explosions were heard in the Gaza Strip on Sunday.
- US President Trump posted that after negotiations, Israel has agreed to an initial withdrawal line which has been shown to, and shared with Hamas, while he added that when Hamas confirms, a ceasefire will be immediately effective and a hostages and prisoner exchange will begin.
- US President Trump posted that there have been very positive discussions with Hamas and countries from all over the World (Arab, Muslim, and everyone else) this weekend, to release the hostages and end the war in Gaza but, more importantly, finally have long sought peace in the Middle East. Trump added that these talks have been very successful and are proceeding rapidly, while the technical teams will again meet Monday, in Egypt, to work through and clarify the final details, while he was told that the first phase should be completed this week, and he is asking everyone to move fast.
- US President told CNN that Hamas will face ‘complete obliteration’ if it refuses to cede power in Gaza and noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu is on board with ending the bombing in Gaza.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said that meetings are taking place on the Israel-Hamas deal and that Hamas agreed in principle to what happens after the war, while he responded ‘not yet’ and that some work remains to be done when asked if this is the end of the war in Gaza. Rubio suggested the second phase of discussing disarmament and demobilisation will be difficult and stated they will know very quickly if Hamas is serious. Furthermore, he said they are the closest they have been in a very long time to having no hostages held by Hamas, but added that no one can say it is a 100% guarantee.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
- US President Trump said Russian President Putin’s offer last month to voluntarily maintain limits on deployed nuclear weapons sounds like a good idea.
- Russian President Putin warned that the possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will ruin the Russia-US relationship.
- Russia conducted a massive airstrike against targets across Ukraine using missiles and drones which killed at least five people and injured several others, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kuzminovka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises, as well as gas and energy infrastructure facilities.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russia launched over 50 missiles and almost 500 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s Energy Minister said the Russian overnight air attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Chernihiv regions. It was also reported that a Russian strike hit a passenger train in Ukraine’s Sumy region, causing casualties.
- Russia’s Kremlin says US President Trump’s language on nuclear limits provide some ground for optimism.
- Russia’s Kremlin says that there is no reason to blame Russia for the drone sightings in Europe.
Geopolitics: Other
- US President Trump’s administration directed US diplomats to lobby against a UN resolution calling for Washington to lift its embargo on Cuba, while the US will tell countries that Cuba is actively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a diplomatic cable cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump said the US hit another boat on Saturday off Venezuela and that the US will have to start looking at drug trafficking by land. In relevant news, US Defense Secretary Hegseth said he has every authorisation needed for Caribbean strikes against vessels allegedly carrying illegal drugs off the coast of Venezuela.
- North Korean leader Kim said Pyongyang allocated strategic assets to respond to the buildup of US military forces in Korea, while he also said they will develop additional military measures, according to KCNA.
2b /European opening report
Yen weakens after Takaichi, Euro hit by Lecornu’s resignation – Newsquawk US Opening News
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 06:29 AM
- Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM; Nikkei 225 +4.7%, JPY sinks.
- European bourses opened modestly lower and then took a hit following French PM Lecornu’s decision to resign; CAC 40 -1.6%. US equity futures are modestly firmer across the board.
- USD has been boosted as JPY ponders looser fiscal/monetary mix and EUR hit by French political risk.
- 10yr JGBs soared then faltered after Takaichi while OATs were sold after Lecornu resigned.
- Crude benchmarks gain after OPEC+ producers agreed to a modest production increase of 137k bpd in November.
- Looking ahead, US Employment Trends (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3), Speakers including BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde, Earnings from Constellation Brands.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU is pushing a new AI strategy to cut its tech reliance on the US and China, according to FT.
- Japan will expand the scope of anti-dumping duties to include indirect exports via third countries as China’s overproduction continues to hurt domestic industries, according to Nikkei.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum said she will present advances in made-in-Mexico tech EV, semiconductors, satellite and drone projects in the coming weeks, while she is confident, they will reach favourable agreements with the US and all nations worldwide regarding trade relations.
LDP ELECTION
- Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM.
- Japan’s newly elected LDP President Takaichi said they need speedy support for weak small- and medium-sized companies to help with wage growth, while she added that support is also needed for the farm sector, and urgent help is needed for the medical and nursing care sectors. Takaichi said one policy option is to increase subsidies to local governments and that she wants to submit a bill to abolish the extra gasoline tax and lower diesel fuel costs during the next parliament. Takaichi also said she won’t rule out lowering the consumption tax as an option and that they will honour the bilateral agreement made with the US. Furthermore, she noted that the government and BoJ need to be aligned on economic policy, while she added they will closely communicate with the BoJ until demand-led economic growth is achieved and wants to carefully consider whether the current government-BoJ accord is most appropriate.
- Credit Agricole Chief Japan Economist Aida, who is widely considered as a close advisor to LDP’s Takaichi, said in a note on Saturday that Takaichi will likely tolerate another 25bps BoJ rate hike by January next year if the economy is in firm shape. Such a move would be on condition that the BoJ maintains relatively loose monetary policy with no further rate hikes likely until 2027.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (-0.2%) opened mostly and modestly in the red, but then took a leg lower following news that French PM Lecornu resigned – this downside has since pared a touch.
- The CAC 40 currently trades towards session lows and down by around 1.9%. At present, it is unclear why the PM decided to resign, but it comes after recent cabinet appointments received criticism from opposing parties. The outgoing PM is currently on the wires, and we remain attentive for any reasoning for his decision – thereafter, the spotlight shifts to Macron to see if he a) decides to appoint a new PM, b) calls legislative elections, c) resigns – though in the past he has made it clear that he intends to see out his term. The National Rally said, “Macron must now choose: dissolution or resignation”, via France 24.
- European sectors hold a negative bias, with only a handful of industries managing to hold in the green. Energy tops the pile, with names boosted by strength in underlying oil prices. Telecoms follows in second spot, with Technology completing the top three. For the latter, ASML (+1.4%) received a PT upgrade at HSBC, now sees EUR 1,018 (prev. 809, currently 893). To the downside, French banks have slipped on the heightening political instability.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.5% RTY +0.4%) are modestly firmer across the board, with some outperformance in the NQ.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY has started the week very much on the front foot after last week’s losses, which were driven by a combination of uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown and softening labour market metrics. There hasn’t been a great deal of change in the US macro narrative with the US government still shut and the Trump administration stating that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that talks are going nowhere. Instead, today’s upside in the USD is driven more by the weakness in the JPY and EUR. DXY has ventured as high as 98.39 with the next upside target coming via the 26th September peak at 98.53.
- EUR/USD has slipped onto a 1.16 handle and below its 50DMA at 1.1680 as French political risk returns with a vengeance. Over the weekend, appointments to French PM Lecornu’s cabinet were met with stark objections from opposition parties with National Rally leader Bardella stating that the cabinet failed to break with the past. Earlier today, the Socialist Party leaders stated he couldn’t see how his party would not be in a position to vote against the government, given that the appointments failed to show a clear change in direction for the government. The political uncertainty saw the GE/FR spread hit its widest level since January with the move subsequently exacerbated (to 87bps) by the recent decision by Lecornu to resign. The next downside target for EUR/USD comes via the 25th September low at 1.1645.
- JPY is the standout laggard across the majors following the LDP leadership election win by Abe-protege Sanae Takaichi. Her victory has been viewed as a combination of looser fiscal policy and delayed BoJ rate hikes, which have triggered a notable steepening of the Japanese curve. Accordingly, markets have scaled back BoJ rate hike bets with money markets pricing around a 75% likelihood that the central bank will remain on hold in the October 30th meeting and just a 48% chance of a 25bps hike by December vs. 68% probability on Friday. Interestingly, Credit Agricole Chief Japan Economist Aida, who is widely considered as a close advisor to LDP’s Takaichi, said in a note on Saturday that Takaichi will likely “tolerate” another 25bps BoJ rate hike by January next year if the economy is in firm shape. 150.43 is the high watermark for USD/JPY thus far with the next upside target coming via the 1st August high at 150.91.
- GBP is softer vs. the USD but firmer vs. the EUR. It remains the case that aside from ongoing angst in the run-up to the November 26th budget, incremental macro drivers for the UK are lacking, and this could remain the case with the domestic data slate light this week. Over the weekend, The Times reported that the UK economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed amid a “chunky” revision to ONS data, which has increased doubts about how much households have been saving. Cable has slipped below Friday’s 1.3429 trough but is holding above the 2nd October low at 1.3400.
- Both antipodeans are softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. For NZD, focus this week is on Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision, which is set to see a reduction in the OCR.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr JGB futures surged at the opening of trade, lifting from 135.88 to a 136.53 session high. In reaction to the appointment of Takaichi as LDP leader, with the market reacting to her preference towards looser fiscal and monetary policy. Thereafter, the 10yr JGB pulled back and reverted to below Friday’s close, hitting a 135.72 low with downside of just over 15 ticks at most on the session. A move that occurred as the Japanese curve, led by the ultra-long end, began to steepen as markets took the view that Takaichi’s appointment will delay BoJ tightening and policy normalisation, but not indefinitely.
- OATs were under pressure from the start of trade given the weekend updates by President Macron and PM Lecornu. Specifically, they announced a cabinet that was regarded as being a continuation of recent attempts, with Lescure set to be the new Finance Minister and Le Maire as Defence Minister. Since, PM Lecornu has presented his resignation to President Macron. A resignation that sent OATs to a 120.61 low with downside of just under a full point at worst. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread widened to a 88.2bps peak for the session, notching a fresh YTD best and approaching the 90bps 2024 high.
- USTs are under modest pressure this morning but within recent ranges. Down to a 112-13+ base, just above last week’s 112-08+ trough. For the most part, the debt market is focussed on above updates initially from Japan but since from France. Ahead, the US docket is a light one on account of the ongoing shutdown, though the Conference Board will still be releasing its Employment Trends Index; a figure that declined in August to 106.41, from a downwardly revised 107.13 in July, to its lowest level since early 2021.
- Bunds began the morning under modest pressure, reflecting the price action seen across the fixed income space in light of the pronounced turnaround seen in JGBs by then. Thereafter, the complex derived a bit of a haven bid on the resignation of French PM Lecornu, lifting to a 128.76 peak with gains of nine ticks at best. However, this proved fleeting, and Bunds have since reverted back to pre-Lecornu levels of c. 128.46.
- Gilts are lagging Bunds and USTs but faring better than OATs. Gapped lower by 22 ticks and then slipped 23 more to a 90.51 low just before the French PM resigned, then seeing some, relative, allure over the next 20/30 minutes before falling back towards session lows. Pressure for the UK comes as we count down to the Autumn Budget. Updates over the weekend include a report in The Times that the domestic economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed, as a “chunky” revision to ONS data has increased doubts about how much households have been saving. Next up, BoE’s Bailey.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks have pared back some of last week’s losses following OPEC+ meeting where the group agreed to raise production by 137k, which is seen as a modest hike compared to the 500k bpd hike reported last week. Benchmarks gapped higher and extended to a peak of USD 62.04/bbl and USD 65.71/bbl in WTI and Brent respectively before oscillating in a c. USD 0.60/bbl range.
- Spot gold continues to extend new ATHs, reaching USD 3950/oz, as growing fiscal concerns in major economies and political concerns in the US add to the momentum of the “debasement trade”. Thus far, XAU has reached a peak of USD 3950/oz before pulling back to USD 3940/oz. Markets await updates on the US government shutdown.
- Base metals briefly extended on last week’s gains before reversing lower amid lack of newsflow, with China still away on holiday. 3M LME Copper extended to USD 10.8k/t early in the APAC session before dipping to a low of USD 10.34k/t. Base metals are being weighed on as Indonesia continues to crack down on illegal mining, with the country handing over six seized tin smelters to state miner PT Timah.
- Eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by 137k bpd in November, citing a steady economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, while they will meet next on November 2nd.
- Qatar set the November marine crude Official Selling Price at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.00/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.05/bbl.
- Shell (SHEL LN) said US President Trump’s attacks on wind projects harm investment in the US and the decision to halt fully permitted offshore wind energy projects is very damaging to investment, according to FT.
- Saudi Arabia sets new November Arab light Crude oil OSP to NW Europe at plus USD 1.35/bbl to ice Brent settlement via Aramco. They’ve also set the November crude oil OSP to the USA at plus USD 3.70/bbl.
- Goldman Sachs open a trade recommendation to short Dec 2026 LME Aluminium contract Currently trading at USD 2650/t, 17% above Dec 2026 price forecast.
- Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 copper forecast to USD 10.5/t from USD 10k/t. Believes that copper prices are likely to remain above USD 10k following the Grasberg outage. Expects global copper market to move into deficit by the end of the decade and this should lift copper prices to beyond USD 11k/t from 2028.
- UBS says oil demand has likely peaked for 2025, should gradually fall in the months ahead. Expects Brent to remain in a USD 60-70/bbl band. While the OPEC+ production increase was 137k BPD for November, estimate the actual volume of additions will be only 60-70k BPD.
- Chevron (CVX) says that the Co. will be making operational adjustments to support the continued safe and reliable operation of the facility.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU Retail Sales MM (Aug) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.4%); Retail Sales YY (Aug) 1.0% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 2.1%)
- EU Sentix Index (Oct) -5.4 vs. Exp. -8.5 (Prev. -9.2)
- EU HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 46.0 (Prev. 46.7)
- French HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 42.9 (Prev. 46.7)
- German HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 46.2 (Prev. 46)
- Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 49.8 (Prev. 47.7)
- UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 46.2 (Prev. 45.5)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- French PM Lecornu has resigned, presented his resignation to President Macron.
- French far-right National Rally (RN) Bardella says they are very close to position of voting out government.
- Roland Lescure is set to be named the new French Finance Minister and Bruno Le Maire is set to be appointed as the new French Defence Minister, according to BFM Television.
- French National Rally leader Bardella said the new PM Lecornu cabinet fails to break with the past, while a French socialist party official said the party will vote against the new government if there is no change in policies.
- French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure says there’s a feeling of consternation following the new governments appointment; cannot see how the PS would not be in position to vote against the government.
- Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’s populist ANO party won the parliamentary election, although it failed to achieve an overall majority with just under 35% of the vote to win 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, while he is seeking an agreement with two smaller groups, which are the populist Motorists and the anti-migration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD).
- The UK economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed amid a “chunky” revision to ONS data has increased doubts about how much households have been saving, according to The Times.
- ECB’s de Guindos says inflation risks are balanced; consumption has growth less than expected.
- ECB’s Lane reiterates a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance, with no-precommitment to a particular rate path”. “In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”
- ECB’s Pereira says that policy is entering a period of greater normalcy
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said Democrats are causing the shutdown and possible layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett separately commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
- US House Republican leaders told members that they plan to stay away from Washington, D.C. during the government shutdown but are ready to get back to work as soon as Senate Democrats reopen the government.
- US President Trump called for big US homebuilders to start building homes and said they’re sitting on 2mln empty lots, while he is asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get big homebuilders going and help restore the ‘American Dream’.
- US President Trump authorised the deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Illinois despite the objections of state officials, including Governor Pritzker.
- US Judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from sending California National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, and blocked the administration from sending Texas or other states’ National Guard to Oregon. It was also reported that California Governor Newsom will sue the Trump administration for sending California National Guard personnel to Oregon.
- COVID-19 Stratus variant replaced the Nimbus variant as the most prevalent strain across the US, with the CDC suggesting some regions of the country are experiencing “very high” COVID-19 activity including Nevada, Utah, Connecticut and Delaware.
- On the US gov’t shutdown, Punchbowl surmises that as it stands “There’s no deal in sight to end the crisis”. “The notion of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer folding at this point seems very unlikely. Yet if you’re Schumer, you’re watching very closely how a handful of Democratic senators are posturing themselves as the shutdown impacts begin to accumulate”. “One Democratic senator told us that some colleagues who want to fold could justify doing so by pointing to the fact that the GOP stopgap funding bill gives Democrats another leverage point in just six weeks. However, this argument would cut against the party’s messaging…” with reference to the Obamacare expiry.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel and Hamas are set to begin mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt after US President Trump hailed Hamas’s offer to release all hostages, according to Bloomberg.
- Israeli government spokeswoman confirmed negotiations for the release of hostages are expected to begin on Monday and stated there is no ceasefire in place in Gaza, but there has been a temporary halt in certain bombings, while she added the military can continue to act in Gaza for defensive purposes.
- Israeli military spokesperson issued a warning for residents of Gaza City on Saturday morning and called on them to avoid returning north, while the spokesperson added that Gaza City remains a dangerous combat zone. It was separately reported by an Al Arabiya correspondent that violent explosions were heard in the Gaza Strip on Sunday.
- US President Trump posted that after negotiations, Israel has agreed to an initial withdrawal line which has been shown to, and shared with Hamas, while he added that when Hamas confirms, a ceasefire will be immediately effective and a hostages and prisoner exchange will begin.
- US President Trump posted that there have been very positive discussions with Hamas and countries from all over the World (Arab, Muslim, and everyone else) this weekend, to release the hostages and end the war in Gaza but, more importantly, finally have long sought peace in the Middle East. Trump added that these talks have been very successful and are proceeding rapidly, while the technical teams will again meet Monday, in Egypt, to work through and clarify the final details, while he was told that the first phase should be completed this week, and he is asking everyone to move fast.
- US President told CNN that Hamas will face ‘complete obliteration’ if it refuses to cede power in Gaza and noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu is on board with ending the bombing in Gaza.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said that meetings are taking place on the Israel-Hamas deal and that Hamas agreed in principle to what happens after the war, while he responded ‘not yet’ and that some work remains to be done when asked if this is the end of the war in Gaza. Rubio suggested the second phase of discussing disarmament and demobilisation will be difficult and stated they will know very quickly if Hamas is serious. Furthermore, he said they are the closest they have been in a very long time to having no hostages held by Hamas, but added that no one can say it is a 100% guarantee.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Russian President Putin’s offer last month to voluntarily maintain limits on deployed nuclear weapons sounds like a good idea.
- Russian President Putin warned that the possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will ruin the Russia-US relationship.
- Russia conducted a massive airstrike against targets across Ukraine using missiles and drones which killed at least five people and injured several others, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kuzminovka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises, as well as gas and energy infrastructure facilities.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russia launched over 50 missiles and almost 500 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s Energy Minister said the Russian overnight air attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Chernihiv regions. It was also reported that a Russian strike hit a passenger train in Ukraine’s Sumy region, causing casualties.
- Russia’s Kremlin says US President Trump’s language on nuclear limits provide some ground for optimism.
- Russia’s Kremlin says that there is no reason to blame Russia for the drone sightings in Europe.
OTHER
- US President Trump’s administration directed US diplomats to lobby against a UN resolution calling for Washington to lift its embargo on Cuba, while the US will tell countries that Cuba is actively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a diplomatic cable cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump said the US hit another boat on Saturday off Venezuela and that the US will have to start looking at drug trafficking by land. In relevant news, US Defense Secretary Hegseth said he has every authorisation needed for Caribbean strikes against vessels allegedly carrying illegal drugs off the coast of Venezuela.
- North Korean leader Kim said Pyongyang allocated strategic assets to respond to the buildup of US military forces in Korea, while he also said they will develop additional military measures, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are modestly firmer today, taking a breather from some of the upside seen over the weekend.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the week mixed amid several holiday closures throughout the week and the ongoing US government shutdown, while Japanese markets rallied on hopes of fiscal loosening and a delay to BoJ policy normalisation following Sanae Takaichi’s LDP leadership victory, which sets her on course to become Japan’s first female PM.
- ASX 200 failed to sustain early marginal gains and retreated to back beneath the 9,000 level as losses in tech, healthcare, and the consumer sectors offset the strength in the commodity-related industries.
- Nikkei 225 rallied to fresh record highs above the 48,000 level as the JPY weakened amid expectations of fiscal support and a potential delay to BoJ policy normalisation after the LDP leadership election victory by Abe-protege Takaichi.
- Hang Seng declined amid the absence of mainland participants for most of the week due to the National Day ‘Golden Week’ holiday and with underperformance in casino stocks following the recent flooding from Typhoon Matmo.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Italy and hold the 12th joint meeting of the China-Italy government committee, and will visit Switzerland for a 4th round of the China-Switzerland foreign ministers-level strategic dialogue.
- NVIDIA’s (NVDA) major server production partner Hon Hai (2317 TT) reported quarterly sales rose 11% to TWD 2.06tln which reportedly signals healthy demand for AI infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
- Indonesia revoked its TikTok licence suspension after the social media platform submitted data that the Indonesian government requested, according to Bloomberg.
- Japan and the US are arranging a US President Trump-PM summit for October 28, via Kyodo
2c Asian opening report
Nikkei 225 rallied, JPY fell and the JGB curve steepened on Takaichi’s victory – Newsquawk European Opening News
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 01:43 AM
- APAC stocks began the week mixed amid several holiday closures throughout the week and the ongoing US government shutdown.
- Nikkei 225 rallied, JPY fell and the JGB curve steepened amid hopes of fiscal loosening and a delay to BoJ policy normalisation following Sanae Takaichi’s LDP leadership victory.
- Crude futures gained after OPEC+ producers agreed to a modest production increase of 137k bpd in November.
- Israel and Hamas are preparing for mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt; hopes for a ceasefire have increased.
- NEC Director Hassett commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Construction PMI (Sep), Sentix (Oct), Retail Sales (Aug), US Employment Trends (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3), BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s de Guindos, Lane, Escriva & Lagarde.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed on Friday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) lagging, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperforming. The former was weighed on by weakness in NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA, and PLTR, which saw large-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Technology as the only sectors in the red. Utilities and Health were the clear outperformers. Newsflow was very thin on Friday, with ISM Services and Fed speak the highlights given the postponement of the US payrolls report due to the US government shutdown. ISM Services disappointed on the headline and fell to 50.0 (exp. 51.7, prev. 52.0) and beneath the bottom end of the forecast range. Business activity and new orders tumbled, with the latter into contractionary territory, while employment and prices paid both ticked incrementally higher.
- SPX +0.01% at 6,716, NDX -0.43% at 24,786, DJI +0.51% at 46,758, RUT +0.72% at 2,476.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU is pushing a new AI strategy to cut its tech reliance on the US and China, according to FT.
- Japan will expand the scope of anti-dumping duties to include indirect exports via third countries as China’s overproduction continues to hurt domestic industries, according to Nikkei.
- Mexican President Sheinbaum said she will present advances in made-in-Mexico tech EV, semiconductors, satellite and drone projects in the coming weeks, while she is confident they will reach favourable agreements with the US and all nations worldwide regarding trade relations.
- US Republican Senator Moreno said on Friday that President Trump is considering significant tariff relief for US auto production.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said Democrats are causing the shutdown and possible layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett separately commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
- US House Republican leaders told members that they plan to stay away from Washington, D.C. during the government shutdown but are ready to get back to work as soon as Senate Democrats reopen the government.
- US President Trump called for big US homebuilders to start building homes and said they’re sitting on 2mln empty lots, while he is asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get big homebuilders going and help restore the ‘American Dream’.
- US President Trump authorised the deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Illinois despite the objections of state officials, including Governor Pritzker.
- US Judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from sending California National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, and blocked the administration from sending Texas or other states’ National Guard to Oregon. It was also reported that California Governor Newsom will sue the Trump administration for sending California National Guard personnel to Oregon.
- Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said on Friday that it was less than ideal not to get the jobs report, but added that he does not focus on a single report when deciding monetary policy and looks across an array of data to assess the economy. Furthermore, he said higher tariffs are showing through to higher inflation for some goods and expects that the effects of tariffs on inflation, employment, and economic activity will further show through in the coming months.
- Fed Governor Miran said on Friday that he hopes they’ll have the needed data by the October FOMC meeting.
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said on Friday that tariffs have been contributing to inflation and that she is worried about non-housing services inflation that’s been elevated and stuck there. Logan added there are also upside risks to goods prices even after the tariff effect fades, and noted risks that tariff effects are more prolonged, increases the risk of a rise in long-term inflation expectations.
- COVID-19 Stratus variant replaced the Nimbus variant as the most prevalent strain across the US, with the CDC suggesting some regions of the country are experiencing “very high” COVID-19 activity including Nevada, Utah, Connecticut and Delaware.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks began the week mixed amid several holiday closures throughout the week and the ongoing US government shutdown, while Japanese markets rallied on hopes of fiscal loosening and a delay to BoJ policy normalisation following Sanae Takaichi’s LDP leadership victory, which sets her on course to become Japan’s first female PM.
- ASX 200 failed to sustain early marginal gains and retreated to back beneath the 9,000 level as losses in tech, healthcare, and the consumer sectors offset the strength in the commodity-related industries.
- Nikkei 225 rallied to fresh record highs above the 48,000 level as the JPY weakened amid expectations of fiscal support and a potential delay to BoJ policy normalisation after the LDP leadership election victory by Abe-protege Takaichi.
- Hang Seng declined amid the absence of mainland participants for most of the week due to the National Day ‘Golden Week’ holiday and with underperformance in casino stocks following the recent flooding from Typhoon Matmo.
- US equity futures (ES +0.3, NQ +0.4%) eked out marginal gains, albeit with upside capped amid little fresh bullish macro catalysts stateside.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Friday.
FX
- DXY rose back above the 98.00 level with the upside mainly a function of a surge in USD/JPY, while the performance of the greenback against other major peers was mostly contained amid the ongoing US government shutdown and with the White House threatening the start of mass federal layoffs if President Trump deems that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
- EUR/USD marginally softened amid uncertainty regarding French politics after PM Lecornu unveiled a government which may not last long, although the downside was limited with participants awaiting ECB speakers and EU Retail Sales.
- GBP/USD attempted to nurse some of its losses, but was hampered by a lack of pertinent drivers for the UK.
- USD/JPY gapped higher and continued to advance to north of the 150.00 level in reaction to the LDP leadership election win by fiscal dove and Abe-protege Sanae Takaichi which resulted in a winding back of BoJ rate hike bets with money markets pricing around a 78% likelihood that the central bank will remain on hold in the October 30th meeting, while the yen swaps market also showed just a 41% chance of a 25bps hike by December vs. 68% probability on Friday.
- Antipodeans clawed back early losses and returned to flat territory with mild tailwinds seen amid the gains in commodities, including the rally in oil and gold.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre after last Friday’s pullback and as the US government shutdown continues.
- Bund futures lacked demand amid very few pertinent drivers and ahead of several ECB speakers.
- 10yr JGB futures initially surged at the open as participants reacted to the LDP leadership result, but then wiped nearly all of the gains as the curve steepened with super-long-end yields rising as Takaichi’s victory is seen as likely to delay the BoJ’s policy normalisation, but not indefinitely.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures gained after OPEC+ producers agreed to a modest production increase of 137k bpd in November.
- Eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by 137k bpd in November, citing a steady economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, while they will meet next on November 2nd.
- Qatar set the November marine crude Official Selling Price at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.00/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.05/bbl.
- Shell (SHEL LN) said US President Trump’s attacks on wind projects harm investment in the US and the decision to halt fully permitted offshore wind energy projects is very damaging to investment, according to FT.
- Spot gold extended on record highs after breaching through resistance to above the USD 3,900/oz level amid the ongoing US government shutdown and with money market rates leaning towards two more Fed rate cuts by year-end.
- Copper futures held on to most of the spoils after last week’s rally, but with further gains capped amid the mixed risk appetite and with several holiday closures in the region, including in the metal’s largest buyer, China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gained overnight but was off the record highs seen over the weekend after briefly rallying above the USD 124k level.
- UK retail investors are said to face a short delay before they can buy regulated crypto products and may have to wait nearly a week longer than the FCA’s planned schedule to lift its ban on crypto ETF products for retail investors from next Wednesday, according to FT citing five people familiar with the matter.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM.
- Japan’s newly elected LDP President Takaichi said they need speedy support for weak small- and medium-sized companies to help with wage growth, while she added that support is also needed for the farm sector, and urgent help is needed for the medical and nursing care sectors. Takaichi said one policy option is to increase subsidies to local governments and that she wants to submit a bill to abolish the extra gasoline tax and lower diesel fuel costs during the next parliament. Takaichi also said she won’t rule out lowering the consumption tax as an option and that they will honour the bilateral agreement made with the US. Furthermore, she noted that the government and BoJ need to be aligned on economic policy, while she added they will closely communicate with the BoJ until demand-led economic growth is achieved and wants to carefully consider whether the current government-BoJ accord is most appropriate.
- Credit Agricole Chief Japan Economist Aida, who is widely considered as a close advisor to LDP’s Takaichi, said in a note on Saturday that Takaichi will likely tolerate another 25bps BoJ rate hike by January next year if the economy is in firm shape. Such a move would be on condition that the BoJ maintains relatively loose monetary policy with no further rate hikes likely until 2027.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Italy and hold the 12th joint meeting of the China-Italy government committee, and will visit Switzerland for a 4th round of the China-Switzerland foreign ministers-level strategic dialogue.
- NVIDIA’s (NVDA) major server production partner Hon Hai (2317 TT) reported quarterly sales rose 11% to TWD 2.06tln which reportedly signals healthy demand for AI infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
- Indonesia revoked its TikTok licence suspension after the social media platform submitted data that the Indonesian government requested, according to Bloomberg.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel and Hamas are set to begin mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt after US President Trump hailed Hamas’s offer to release all hostages, according to Bloomberg.
- Israeli government spokeswoman confirmed negotiations for the release of hostages are expected to begin on Monday and stated there is no ceasefire in place in Gaza, but there has been a temporary halt in certain bombings, while she added the military can continue to act in Gaza for defensive purposes.
- Israeli military spokesperson issued a warning for residents of Gaza City on Saturday morning and called on them to avoid returning north, while the spokesperson added that Gaza City remains a dangerous combat zone. It was separately reported by an Al Arabiya correspondent that violent explosions were heard in the Gaza Strip on Sunday.
- US President Trump posted that after negotiations, Israel has agreed to an initial withdrawal line which has been shown to, and shared with Hamas, while he added that when Hamas confirms, a ceasefire will be immediately effective and a hostages and prisoner exchange will begin.
- US President Trump posted that there have been very positive discussions with Hamas and countries from all over the World (Arab, Muslim, and everyone else) this weekend, to release the hostages and end the war in Gaza but, more importantly, finally have long sought peace in the Middle East. Trump added that these talks have been very successful and are proceeding rapidly, while the technical teams will again meet Monday, in Egypt, to work through and clarify the final details, while he was told that the first phase should be completed this week, and he is asking everyone to move fast.
- US President told CNN that Hamas will face ‘complete obliteration’ if it refuses to cede power in Gaza and noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu is on board with ending the bombing in Gaza.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said that meetings are taking place on the Israel-Hamas deal and that Hamas agreed in principle to what happens after the war, while he responded ‘not yet’ and that some work remains to be done when asked if this is the end of the war in Gaza. Rubio suggested the second phase of discussing disarmament and demobilisation will be difficult and stated they will know very quickly if Hamas is serious. Furthermore, he said they are the closest they have been in a very long time to having no hostages held by Hamas, but added that no one can say it is a 100% guarantee.
- Hamas handed over its response to US President Trump’s Gaza plan to mediators on Friday and said it agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or bodies, under US President Trump’s Gaza proposal, while it affirmed its readiness to immediately engage in negotiations through mediators to discuss the details of this matter and reiterated its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats. However, it was also reported that a senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera that handing over hostages held in Gaza within 72 hours is ‘theoretical and unrealistic’.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Russian President Putin’s offer last month to voluntarily maintain limits on deployed nuclear weapons sounds like a good idea.
- Russian President Putin warned that the possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will ruin the Russia-US relationship.
- Russia conducted a massive airstrike against targets across Ukraine using missiles and drones which killed at least five people and injured several others, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kuzminovka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises, as well as gas and energy infrastructure facilities.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russia launched over 50 missiles and almost 500 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s Energy Minister said the Russian overnight air attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Chernihiv regions. It was also reported that a Russian strike hit a passenger train in Ukraine’s Sumy region, causing casualties.
OTHER
- US President Trump’s administration directed US diplomats to lobby against a UN resolution calling for Washington to lift its embargo on Cuba, while the US will tell countries that Cuba is actively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a diplomatic cable cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump said the US hit another boat on Saturday off Venezuela and that the US will have to start looking at drug trafficking by land. In relevant news, US Defense Secretary Hegseth said he has every authorisation needed for Caribbean strikes against vessels allegedly carrying illegal drugs off the coast of Venezuela.
- North Korean leader Kim said Pyongyang allocated strategic assets to respond to the buildup of US military forces in Korea, while he also said they will develop additional military measures, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Roland Lescure is set to be named the new French Finance Minister and Bruno Le Maire is set to be appointed as the new French Defence Minister, according to BFM Television.
- French National Rally leader Bardella said the new PM Lecornu cabinet fails to break with the past, while a French socialist party official said the party will vote against the new government if there is no change in policies.
- Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’s populist ANO party won the parliamentary election, although it failed to achieve an overall majority with just under 35% of the vote to win 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, while he is seeking an agreement with two smaller groups, which are the populist Motorists and the anti-migration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD).
- The UK economy could be on shakier ground than initially assumed amid a “chunky” revision to ONS data has increased doubts about how much households have been saving, according to The Times.
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3C CHINA
4. European affairs and NATO
CZECH REPUBLIC
“Czech Trump” Andrej Babis Wins Election, Returns As Prime Minister In Latest European Populist Revolt
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 04, 2025 – 11:20 PM
Billionaire Andrej Babis’s ANO party won the Czech Republic’s general parliamentary election on Saturday, and is set to return as prime minister to the central European country, raising the prospect of yet another splinter government within the EU bloc that would boost Europe’s populist, anti-immigration camp and reduce support for Ukraine. It was also another booming stamp of disapproval for the EU’s policies.
An ebullient Babis, also known as the Czech Trump – for being a septuagenarian billionaire campaigning on a populist message and passing out red caps to ardent supporters – told supporters that ANO would seek a one-party cabinet but would talk with two small parties – including the far-right SPD – for support as his party will lack an outright majority. He again rejected accusations that his win would make the central European nation a less reliable European Union and NATO partner.
“We want to save Europe … and we are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO,” Babis told reporters.
With 99% of voting districts counted, ANO was leading on 34.7% and Spolu in second on 23.2%, the Statistical Office said.
With nearly all results in, ANO was set to replace the current centre-right cabinet led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Fiala congratulated Babis and conceded defeat according to Reuters.
As even Bloomberg admits, a Babis victory marks a broader trend in Europe of the political pendulum swinging the other way — threatening even the longest-serving of incumbents.
ANO has promised faster growth, higher wages and pensions, and lower taxes and tax discounts for students and young families during the campaign. Those pledges – that will cost billions of euros, end austerity and test the country’s frugal mindset – resonated with many Czechs who have seen their real incomes plunge in recent years as the country tackled soaring inflation.
Babis, however, must overcome some hurdles to become prime minister, including conflict-of-interest laws as owner of a chemicals and food empire and long-running fraud charges related to drawing an EU subsidy over 15 years ago – charges he denies.
President Petr Pavel, who will appoint the next prime minister, was expected to start talks with party leaders on Sunday.
ANO was seen winning around 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, results projections showed, and so will need to find wider support.
Babis said he would talk to the Motorists, who oppose the EU’s Green policies, and the anti-EU and anti-NATO SPD.
Motorists leader Petr Macinka said he was open to talks with ANO, as did SPD.
“We went into the election with the aim of ending the government of Petr Fiala and support even for a minority cabinet of ANO is important for us and it would meet the target we had for this election,” SPD Deputy Chairman Radim Fiala said on television.
Overall, the fringe parties fared worse than expected in the partial results, with SPD on 7.8% and the far-left Stacilo!, built around the Communist Party, below the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
Babis, who led a centre-left cabinet in 2017-2021, once wanted to join the euro but has since become a eurosceptic and a supporter of US President Donald Trump, handing out “Strong Czechia” baseball caps inspired by Trump’s MAGA slogan. He is also seen as very much in the pro-Putin camp which explains the following tweet from Putin’s special envoy for investment and economic cooperation
An ally of another pro-Russia European – Hungarian leader Viktor Orban – Babis has teamed up with a number of far-right parties in the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament to challenge the mainstream direction of Europe’s policies, including decarbonisation.
He has rejected calls from SPD to hold a referendum on leaving the EU and NATO, but has said he would end the “Czech initiative” that has bought millions of artillery rounds from around the world for Ukraine with funding from Western donors.
ANO wants NATO and the EU to handle aid for Ukraine, and has abstained in some European Parliament votes supporting Kyiv and its bid for EU membership, which Babis has opposed in the past.
END
GERMANY
(KOLBE)
Germany In Shock: Merz’s Media Show Vs. Economic Collapse
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
The collapse of the German economy is now becoming visible even in the labor market. Yet instead of pushing for a political turnaround with deregulation measures and genuine relief, the federal government limits itself to empty rhetoric and media appearances. In Berlin, PR is mistaken for economic policy—propagandistic fragments are presented as proof of achievement.
It was a week of media presence for the Chancellor. Friedrich Merz staged visibility: speeches, press conferences, appearances on German Unity Day, and the first cabinet retreat at Villa Borsig. He even tackled the new swarms of drones—with emphatic rhetoric, as if these threats, according to panicked press reports, were undermining citizens’ trust in security and airspace control—and immediately called for border measures.
Had we not learned over the past decade that border control was impossible? Wasn’t this the mantra, particularly for the CDU, during the Merkel-era invasion crisis?
But never mind. It’s not just the borders crumbling due to political inaction and a lack of will to solve problems.
Rhetorically and Physically Present
Merz was omnipresent, rhetorically and physically. At the Unity Day ceremony in Saarbrücken, the Chancellor even attempted emotional bridges with the audience.
He invoked social cohesion, called for optimism and a “new beginning,” spoke of courage, initiative, and the challenges posed by autocracies, digitalization, and geopolitical change.
Germany, Merz said, stands in Autumn 2025 at a “decisive moment” in its history, a phase that may determine the nation’s future. Despite economic and security tensions, one must “look ahead with confidence and vigor” and strive for a “new unity” in the country. Citizens should not be paralyzed by fear but, like East Germans 35 years ago, dare their own new beginning.
What was meant as an appeal to the spirit of 1989 sounded more like empty morale-boosting slogans—subtle blame-shifting that puts the burden of the crisis on ordinary citizens.
Economically Bleak
The economic outlook is so grim that even Berlin’s normally insulated news bubble cannot entirely shield the Chancellor’s office from daily shocks in the German economy.
Mild Pressure, No Consequences
Fragments of criticism from Germany’s bureaucratic and union circles appear to have reached the Chancellor’s office. Industrial CEOs complain daily about ruinous energy costs. The grotesque regulations that strangle the country are conveniently ignored—they prevent the few innovative SMEs from becoming serious competition.
Yet when companies like Bosch cut 22,000 jobs, Mercedes scraps an electric vehicle project to return to combustion engines, and entire supply chains of basic industry vanish, political action is required.
But no one dares, even verbally, to strike at the root of this civilization-destroying policy—the green agenda shared by nearly all in Berlin, except the AfD. It embodies faith in centralized power in Brussels, paving the way for the “United States of Europe,” whatever its architects may envision.
Merz and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil—the true debt kings of our era—seriously believe that pumping a few hundred billion euros into failing projects will get the country moving again. An intellectual bankruptcy, and more: proof of structural delusion—ideological and intellectual.
Laughable “Reforms”
Merz’s response to deindustrialization and social crisis is surprisingly simple: a few media appearances, the “Made for Germany” coffee sessions, or announcing a “reform autumn” should suffice to prove the economy is turning around. It’s always the public’s bad mood, according to Merz—the eternal grumbler who simply doesn’t appreciate the hard work of policymakers.
In material terms, this government achieves nothing. In the distant future, companies might receive modest corporate tax relief—a few billion euros, laughable compared to a federal government budget of over €520 billion next year. A two-year temporary depreciation? A trivial gesture.
It is particularly cynical when the government celebrates simplified car registration or a new bureaucratic portal as groundbreaking deregulation while the administrative apparatus continues to consume billions unchecked.
For context: the ifo Institute estimates the direct and indirect costs of Germany’s bureaucracy at around €146 billion annually—over three percent of GDP.
In a country with a state share beyond 50%, this is nothing less than a confession of impotence: a document of inaction, overextension, or deliberate planning by the government—results unchanged.
Old Political Tales
Merz and Klingbeil repeat old political fables: bureaucracy will be reduced by €16 billion, eight percent of personnel cut. Believers may rejoice. Meanwhile, debates have already started about building new bureaucracies to manage the massive subsidy flows favoring green and military cronies in coming years.
Talk of deregulation is just a slogan, a hollow phrase, compulsively repeated by speechwriters. Reality: thousands of new positions at local and state levels, sold as “employment success.” Welcome to today’s political parallel universe.
It is telling that during this orchestrated week, neither the planned inheritance tax increase nor the end of spousal tax splitting proposed by Klingbeil were mentioned. All of this is media theater—distractions, smoke bombs—meant to suggest the problem has been recognized and addressed. In reality, it’s political simulation perfected to emptiness.
Actual Situation
The reality for the economy and citizens is very different. Merz allows the ever-increasing, grotesque CO₂ tax to pass without resistance—a bow to Brussels. Citizens feel the impact at the checkout as prices surge across daily essentials.
Meanwhile, municipalities respond to the green regulatory-induced economic crisis with tax hikes: the minimum business tax rate factor nationwide rises from 200 to 280 points—a costly measure that will eliminate thousands of jobs.
Since 2018, mismanaged policy has eliminated roughly 1.3 million private-sector jobs while the state created over 420,000 new public-sector positions—spinning the debt spiral ever faster.
A genuine reform would have broken this deadly cycle. It would have had the courage to finally address the migration crisis—rather than delaying debates over the migration-related citizens’ allowance through semantic smoke screens and political procrastination.
Nothing but Hot Air
Given the government’s disastrous record, one wonders: can’t they, won’t they, or aren’t they allowed? Whatever the reason for this political paralysis, Merz is the archetype of someone who simulates work with remarkable consistency—omnipresent, loud, center-stage—yet delivers nothing but hot air.
We know this game: the classic stalling tactic, backed by Berlin-Brussels consensus on the ideological agenda: social restructuring, centralized energy control, a monitored financial system, and the installation of a censored public sphere.
The media plays, channeling the 1990s, embodied by a Chancellor whose social media team reproduces tone, posture, and content from a past era, are proof. The Chancellor’s office believes it can regain air superiority over narratives and public opinion. Repeated messages, intensified public broadcaster propaganda, European censorship laws—all aimed to silence dissent and relegate serious opposition to “far-right conspiracy theories.”
In summary, this orchestrated week demonstrates once more how the political-media complex buys time by scattering sand into critics’ gears. Time to prepare the actual “reforms” underway elsewhere: a digital euro as a capital control, a UK-style digital ID, and accelerated wartime economic mobilization against an imminent Russian threat.
If this is the promised “autumn of reforms,” buckle up.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
FRANCE
LECORNU, the shortest reigning prime minister in France’s history; 3 weeks:
French Prime Minister Abruptly Resigns After Just Three Weeks As Local Politics Enters “Very Dangerous Territory”
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 07:34 AM
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned on Monday morning, just three weeks after his appointment, preempting what appeared to be an inevitable ousting. Lecornu was expected to unveil his policy agenda before the National Assembly on Tuesday, but both the Socialist Party and the National Rally had warned that without a drastic policy shift, they would trigger a no-confidence vote. French bonds and stocks slumped on the emerging political crisis.
President Emmanuel Macron’s office issued a one-sentence statement, confirming that Macron had accepted the resignation of Lecornu. This comes amid turmoil over the composition of his cabinet, a coalition of centrists and conservatives.
Lecornu told reporters his resignation was primarily due to the inability to compromise across the political spectrum: “I was ready to compromise, but each political party wanted the other political party to adopt its entire program.”
He told reporters in the courtyard of the Matignon Palace, the prime minister’s headquarters, that he had spent weeks trying to forge a viable path forward with politicians, unions, and social partners from both political sides, but had achieved no breakthroughs.
Jean Garrigues, one of France’s top political historians, told local media that Macron will likely be forced to dissolve the National Assembly once again.
“A fresh dissolution might lead to an increase of seats for the National Rally in the lower house, but it’s unlikely that they’ll get an outright majority,” Garrigues stated in the interview.
UBS analyst Simon Penn provided clients with the three possible pathways for Macron to move forward:
- He can try another technocrat type
- He can call a general election
- He can quit and call a full presidential election
The Bloomberg Economics team provided readers with the visualization.
Penn warned that France is entering a dangerous political environment:
French PM Lecornu has resigned less than a month after he was appointed (Sept. 9). On face value Lecornu looks to have quit before he was forced out. He was due to present his policy proposals to the National Assembly on Tuesday, but leaders of the Socialist and National Rally had already warned that unless there was a total change in direction they would call a vote of no confidence immediately after Lecornu stopped speaking.
Furthermore, the press and public reaction to the appointment of a near unchanged cabinet from the Bayrou administration has been somewhat scornful. President Macron has attempted three times to try for the same policies and failed three times. As the famous quote from Jean-Claude Juncker goes: “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”
The latest failure puts French politics into very dangerous territory – more so than the markets seem to be pricing. The lessons of the UK in the 1970s are worth bearing in mind – a government in the early 70s attempting what today would be described as austerity; failing and being replaced by socialist policy, that today might be described as populist. It took mass strikes, power blackouts and an IMF bailout before UK voters were willing to accept the necessary medicine that came in the form of the 1979 Thatcher government.
Meanwhile, across other Wall Street desks this morning, analysts are desperately trying to make sense of the political turmoil and what comes next. Barclays analysts expect parliamentary elections, adding that a Macron resignation is “unlikely.”
Political turmoil sent the CAC 40, the benchmark French stock market index, down 1.5% by early afternoon trading in Paris. French bonds also dropped.
More market commentary from UBS analyst Justinus Steinhors: “The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 80bp, retreating from highs. Yields jump on political turmoil: in France, PM Lecornu resigns after less than four weeks in office.”
Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris, warned, “What’s new this morning is the beginning of contagion from France to the rest of the European banking sector. The drop of the sector is 100% linked to France. Given that banks have outperformed the markets so much, all the elements are aligned for some profit-taking on these stocks.”
Allianz CIO and Chief Economist Ludovic Subran told Bloomberg that it’s not the time to panic.
Lecornu’s resignation makes him the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, founded by Charles de Gaulle in 1958.
END
FRANCE (AGAIN)
Political Turmoil: France’s Le Maire Resigns Hours After Prime Minister Steps Down
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 12:40 PM
Update (1240ET):
France’s former finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, who was appointed head of the Ministry of the Armed Forces on Sunday, announced his resignation less than 24 hours after taking the job, amid ongoing political turmoil that rattled stocks and bonds in Paris on Monday.
Bloomberg noted, “President Emmanuel Macron’s decision late Sunday to return Le Maire to a ministerial post, in charge of defense, sparked a political backlash, including from within the administration.”
By Monday evening, Le Maire wrote on X that President Macron accepted his resignation and expressed hope that his departure would help efforts to form a new government, reaffirming his ongoing commitment to serving France and the public interest:
My decision to join the government was taken solely out of a sense of duty, in grave geopolitical circumstances, to serve France and the French people.
I note that my decision is provoking incomprehensible, false, and disproportionate reactions in some quarters.
No individual situation must block the proper functioning of the country and our institutions.
Under these conditions, I proposed to the President of the Republic at the end of the morning to withdraw from the government without delay and to transfer my responsibilities as Minister of the Armed Forces to the Prime Minister.
The President of the Republic has accepted my proposal.
I hope that this decision will allow discussions to resume with a view to forming a new government, which France needs.
My commitment to serving France and the French people will always be guided by concern for the general interest and the State.
Earlier, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau criticized the decision to reinstate one of Macron’s close friends, arguing that appointing Le Maire, who had served as finance minister for seven years, did not represent a viable path forward.
Political turmoil erupted early Monday when French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned, citing the inability of political parties to reach a compromise, saying that “each party wanted the other to adopt its entire program.”
Commenting on the political turmoil and its spillover effects in local equity and bond markets, UBS analyst Matthew Cowley provided clients with an overview of the situation, potential pathways for Macron, and related trade ideas.
UBS economist Felix Hüfner highlights heightened political instability in France following Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation, just weeks into his tenure. President Macron faces three scenarios: appointing a new PM, dissolving parliament for legislative elections, or even calling an early presidential election—though the latter remains unlikely.
UBS sees scenario one as most probable, but election risks have increased, impacting investor sentiment. Prolonged uncertainty could delay the 2026 budget and weigh on growth, with household savings already at a four-year high.
UBS retains its short 10y France vs EUR swaps strategy, citing elevated election risk and potential downgrades by Moody’s and S&P. Investors may find opportunities if 30y France yields rise above 4.50%, with France’s constitutional safeguards ensuring budget continuity. Watch for key announcements from Macron and upcoming rating reviews later this month.
More commentary:
Wonder what Brigitte Macron is up to at the moment. Here’s a look back at earlier this year…
Hmm.
ttps://x.com/zerohedge/status/1975183806043680791?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1975183806043680791%7Ctwgr%5E749b279bcfaebef6e0076736d1a11a7252fa88f7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ffrench-prime-minister-abruptly-resigns-ubs-warns-french-politics-entering-very-dangerous
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HRS:
ISRAEL VS HAMAS: THE DEAL
Trump calls on Israel to stop bombing Gaza, Hamas says willing to free hostages
Donald Trump: Believe Hamas is ready for a lasting peace • Mousa Abu Marzouk: Deadline of 72 hours to release all living, deceased hostages ‘unrealistic’
Abu Ubaida, the spokesman of the Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, walks during an anti-Israel military show by Hamas terroristsin the southern Gaza Strip November 11, 2019.(photo credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS)ByDANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARD, JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 3, 2025 22:27Updated: OCTOBER 4, 2025 00:43
US President Donald Trump demanded Israel stop bombing Gaza “immediately” after Hamas said on Friday night it is willing to release all hostages in an effort to re-enter negotiations over Trump’s deal to end the war in Gaza.
The terrorist organization said in a statement it would release all hostages, living and dead, “according to the exchange formula outlined in President Trump’s proposal, provided that field conditions necessary for the exchange are secured.” Hamas officials later told international media that it would likely take longer than the 72 hours outlined in the US proposal to release them.
Hamas senior official Mousa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera that it would take longer than 72 hours to release the living hostages and the bodies of those killed – claiming that such a deadline was unrealistic under the current circumstances.
Hamas gave mediators its response to US President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the Gaza war earlier Friday evening and promised that it would approve transferring the power of the Gaza Strip over to a Palestinian governing body that would be elected “based on Palestinian national consensus and with Arab and Islamic support.”
Marzouk promised the handover of power would come with the transfer of weapons from Hamas to the future Palestinian rulers.
In a statement on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly! Right now, it’s far too dangerous to do that. We are already in discussions on details to be worked out. This is not about Gaza alone, this is about long sought PEACE in the Middle East.”
While Trump’s press secretary expressed Hamas’s response was an acceptance to the deal. Senator Lindsey Graham lamented that, “Hamas’ recent response to President Trump’s plan to end the war — which Israel had accepted — is unfortunately predictable. A classic ‘Yes, but.’
“No disarmament, keeping Gaza under Palestinian control, and tying hostage release to negotiations, along with other problems.
“This is, in essence, a rejection by Hamas of President Trump’s ‘take it or leave it’ proposal.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid shared, “President Trump is right that there is an unprecedented opportunity here to release the hostages and end the war. Israel should announce that it is joining discussions led by President Trump to close the final details regarding the deal. I informed the American administration that Netanyahu has political backing to continue the process.”
Hamas says that it will re-enter negotiations
The terror organization added that regarding the “other issues included in President Trump’s proposal concerning the future of the Gaza Strip and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, these are linked to a comprehensive national position and to relevant international laws and resolutions.”
Hamas said that these will be discussed in a “unified Palestinian national framework in which Hamas will participate and contribute responsibly.”
The acceptance came hours after Trump issued an ultimatum to the terror group, insisting Hamas had until Sunday to accept the deal or face “all HELL like no one has ever seen before.”
Pressure on Hamas to accept the deal also came as Trump’s 20 point plan gained backing from the heads of Islamic nations, including some of Hamas’s allies.
This is a developing story. Corinne Baum contributed to this report.
END
Trump thanks Israel for halting Gaza strikes, warns Hamas to ‘move quickly, or else all bets will be off’
10 said killed in Strip as Palestinians confirm slowdown in Israeli strikes * Witkoff, Kushner to attend talks on ending Gaza war; Hamas said divided over demand it disarm
Amid reports that an Israeli airstrike killed 10 people, including children in Gaza City, US President Donald Trump expresses his appreciation that “Israel has temporarily stopped the bombing in order to give the hostage release and peace deal a chance to be completed.”
“Hamas must move quickly, or else all bets will be off,” Trump writes on Truth Social.
“I will not tolerate delay, which many think will happen, or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat again,” he continues.
“Let’s get this done, FAST. Everyone will be treated fairly!” he adds, repeating an assurance ostensibly met to keep both sides on board with the fragile agreement.
END
Hamas may not be able to deliver on terms of agreement, still divided, mediators warn – WSJ
As Hamas was unable to pay its fighters and coordinate with newly recruited terrorists, mediators fear terrorists will ignore Hamas demands to disarm for a ceasefire.
Hamas members stand at the funeral of Marwan Issa, a senior Hamas deputy military commander who was killed in an Israeli airstrike during the conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the central Gaza Strip, February 7, 2025.(photo credit: Ramadan Abed/Reuters)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 4, 2025 16:12
Hamas is divided on whether to move forward with US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza and return the remaining 48 hostages, Arab officials involved in mediation attempts told the Wall Street Journal on Friday.
One of the main causes of the rift is that Hamas is divided on disarming and under what conditions to let the hostages go, according to the officials.
Khalil Al-Hayya and several other senior Hamas political officials reportedly support the US deal, but Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip are reportedly less eager to see the war end on Trump’s terms.
Hamas leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad reportedly told mediators that he would be open to compromise and is willing to give rockets and offensive weaponry to Egypt and the UN. However, he allegedly sought for Hamas to retain some arms, like assault rifles, arguing that these weapons are defensive.
Complicating the situation further, Hamas commanders are reportedly unsure they would be able to enforce the disarmament as the terrorists they oversee will likely be unwilling to hand over their weapons, according to the mediators.
On the issue of the hostages, Hamas officials have insisted the US’s 72-hour deadline was unrealistic to return all 48 captives.
Critics within Hamas have argued that the proposal is more of “a 72-hour truce” rather than a genuine peace agreement. Hamas also insists that the release of hostages must come in time with Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Hamas buying time
The resistance to the Trump proposal seems a far cry from the initial response Hamas gave on Friday, though Israeli and Arab experts reportedly suspect that Hamas only gave such a response to buy themselves time.
While the terror group has successfully recruited waves of new fighters after its terrorists were killed during the war, many remain untrained, and Israeli operations have prevented communication and cooperation for new attacks.
“This is why these negotiations are starting to become real. Maybe it’s the first time throughout the war that Hamas is starting to understand that they will be eradicated,” said Amir Avivi, a former senior Israeli defense official.
To adapt to the restricted communication, Arab and Israeli mediators said Hamas was now working in smaller units, which often act independently and so would not necessarily fall in line with the decisions of Hamas leadership. The leadership’s control has also waned as the terror group lacked the funds to pay salaries to its personnel.
With Hamas’s loosening grip, many terrorists are realigning themselves with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terror groups, according to the report.
END
ISRAEL GAZA
IDF withdrawal, future raids in Gaza key to success of deal with Hamas – analysis
Israel needs to be asking itself the long-term question: What danger will Hamas still present to Israel over a more extended period of time?
A Palestinian Hamas militant helps fix the headband of another as they stand guard as people gather on the day of the handover of hostages, including four held in Gaza since the deadly October 7 2023 attack, to members of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as part of a ceasefire and(photo credit: Ramadan Abed/Reuters)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBOCTOBER 5, 2025 19:30Updated: OCTOBER 5, 2025 23:10
Almost all of the attention regarding the Hamas peace deal is focused on getting back the 48 Israeli hostages, at least 20 of whom are estimated to still be alive.
That makes sense given that this has always been one of the critical goals of the war, especially for many Israelis.
But now that it seems that, one way or another, Israel and Hamas are nearing the endgame, the strategic perspective of what the next five to 20 years will look like looms large.
Basically, the long-term question is: What danger will Hamas still present to Israel over a more extended period of time?
The first key to answering this question is to examine the IDF’s withdrawal patterns as detailed in US President Donald Trump’s conflict-ending proposal to Israel and Hamas.
Will the incremental Israeli retreats and the final withdrawal line enable Israel to maintain systemic pressure on Hamas to keep its head low even after Trump and much of the world have stopped caring about Gaza?Or will the withdrawals be so fast and the final one so complete that Israel will lose most of its built-in future leverage over Hamas? The next key is to look at what kind of raids the IDF will be permitted to undertake within Gaza, beyond any perimeter that the IDF may hold within the enclave’s outskirts at the end of the deal with Hamas.
Will post-war IDF raids against Hamas be defined more like the reality vs Hezbollah in Lebanon in the October 6, 2023 era? Or, rather, will they resemble the post-November 27, 2024 era?
The reason that Israel needs a security perimeter in Gaza for a long-term period of time, even in a post-war Gaza era, is partially to prevent the next October 7 massacre by putting soldiers further up to block any invasion attempt, certainly before such an attempt reaches civilian communities.
But more importantly, Israel needs such a buffer zone as a way to maintain pressure on Hamas not to try to scramble the board and retake Gaza.
Having soldiers on a frontal perimeter is not the same as having troops deeper inside the Gaza cities. But it does project to Hamas a deterrence message – that the army still has boots on the ground in Gaza and can jump in quickly to prevent the terrorist group from a coup against a new, more Western-friendly Palestinian body governing the enclave. Also, this would make such a physical intervention more possible.
Mistakes from October 7
To be clear, it is the combination of both deterrence and the actual capability to act that makes the difference here, meaning not relying solely on deterrence to save the day – a mistake from the October 7 era that proved to be detrimental.
Suppose the IDF withdraws from too much of Gaza too quickly and, at the end of the process, has little or no security perimeter. In that case, the military may be no better prepared than it was on October 7 to prevent future invasions and may lack leverage to block a future Hamas takeover.
However, all of this is just about the worst-case scenario if Hamas were to start recovering enough over the upcoming years to consider trying to take over again.
What about blocking Hamas from even getting to a point where, instead of regrading itself as the ragtag group of small guerrilla warfare cells, which is what it has been reduced to, it might start to see itself as having the ability to take on a national governing role?
This is where the IDF raids come in.
On October 6, 2023, Lebanon had a government that was not ruled by Hezbollah. Still, this terrorist organization was so powerful there that it was pulling all the strings from behind the scenes and could do whatever it wanted in Lebanese territory to threaten Israel.
The world tolerated this because it embraced the failed fiction that Hezbollah – at least officially – was not running Lebanon.
One of the most significant debates concerning a post-war Gaza has been about how to avoid a situation where Hamas says it will allow some other Palestinian body to run Gaza officially, but where, behind the scenes, like Hezbollah in 2023, it too has the most guns and calls the shots
So the question is whether the US and the world will permit IDF raids and surgical strikes against Hamas terrorists who quietly try to break ceasefire rules and attempt to rebuild the group’s long-term power.
Such permission would be akin to the way the globe has permitted the IDF to target Hezbollah since the November 27, 2024, ceasefire between Jerusalem and Beirut.
Since the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, the IDF no longer strikes dozens or hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists and infrastructure per day, but it does frequently strike one target a few times per week.
This keeps Hezbollah on its heels and has prevented the group from reconstituting its power.
Replicating Hezbollah success easier said than done
Can the IDF replicate the same success in Gaza? Easier said than done
In Lebanon, the IDF cleared all of southern Lebanon and has not allowed the Lebanese to return. Part of the reason the IDF “got away” with doing this is that there really is no land dispute between Israel and Lebanon. In 2000, the Jewish state withdrew from any remaining areas in dispute, even according to the UN.
Also, in Lebanon, the IDF killed far fewer civilians compared to in Gaza.
Whatever merits the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas since October 7, it is important to remember that there is a 58-year dispute between Israel and the Palestinians over the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.Any action Israel takes in the enclave will be scrutinized far more than in Lebanon.
Further, even according to former IDF chief Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Herzi Halevi, Israel, has killed or wounded over 200,000 Gazans, and this before subtracting 30%-40% who were Hamas terrorists.
This means that any future action Israel takes in Gaza that harms a civilian, even by mistake, will be treated much more gravely than in Lebanon.
Finally, if the world mostly dislikes Hamas, there has still been a bizarre and dangerous sympathy with it as an underdog, given Israel’s two-year invasion of Gaza.
Post-war era just getting started
In contrast, the world unambiguously dislikes Hezbollah and treats it as the bad actor that it is in all respects. So, whatever understandings Trump, the next US administration, and other Western allies like Germany, France, and the UK reach with Israel about the kinds of raids it can conduct into Gaza post-war are as critical as the perimeter debate.
With the hope that all of the hostages will be home soon, the significant chapter of a post-war era is still just getting started.
END
IRAN/USA
(DECAMP)
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Again, Says He’s ‘Not Going To Wait So Long’
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 03:35 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
President Trump on Sunday said that he would bomb Iran again if the country restarts its nuclear program, warning the US was “not going to wait so long this time,” a threat that comes amid growing signs that another US-Israeli war against Iran may be coming.
“The B2s, what they did. Those beautiful flying wings, what they did, they hit every single target. And just in case, we shot 30 Tomahawks out of a submarine,” Trump said in a speech at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, during a celebration of the US Navy’s 250th birthday, referring to the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22.
Trump claimed in the speech that Iran was going to have a nuclear weapon “within a month,” but before Israel launched the war, US intelligence determined Tehran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon, and even if it chose to, it would take years to actually develop a deliverable weapon.
“They were going to have a nuclear weapon within a month,” Trump told a crowd of US Navy sailors. “And now they can start the operation all over again, but I hope they don’t because we’ll have to take care of that too if they do, I let them know that. You want to do that, it’s fine, but we’re going to take care of that and we’re not going to wait so long.”
Trump went on to say that he had B-2 pilots visit him in the Oval Office, who said the US had been working on plans to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities for 22 years, but that no president before him wanted to do it.
The president has previously acknowledged that he bombed Iran on behalf of Israel. “Look, nobody has done more for Israel than I have, including the recent attacks with Iran, wiping that thing out,” he said in an interview with the Daily Caller published on September 1.
Since the ceasefire that ended the 12-day US-Israeli war on Iran, Trump has threatened to bomb Iran again several times. At the same time, the Trump administration is demanding that Iran enter negotiations to give up its nuclear enrichment program and place limits on its ballistic missiles, demands that Iranian officials have made clear are a non-starter.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently reaffirmed his prohibition on the development of nuclear weapons but also vowed Tehran wouldn’t give up its civilian nuclear enrichment program, framing it as a matter of national pride. He also rejected the idea of imposing limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES
Russian Attack Targets Military-Industrial Sites In Western Ukraine, Near Poland
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 12:15 PM
Largescale overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine reportedly hit major arms production facilities and the energy infrastructure supplying them, according to a Russian Defense Ministry announcement.
State media has listed targets hit included Sumy, Kharkov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Chernigov and Odessa regions, with bombardments in Lviv region – not far from Poland – being particularly intense.
“At least 25 facilities in the city of Lviv were reportedly hit,” RT writes, which resulted in several regional blackouts.
The Russia military said it struck “Ukrainian military-industrial facilities and the energy infrastructure supporting their operations,” and that “The objectives of the strikes have been achieved. All designated targets were hit.”
The operation involved “land-, sea- and air-based precision-guided weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, as well as attack drones” – based on the statement.
A Ukrainian government statement said that five people were killed in the attacks, with most being in the Western city of Lviv, near the border with Poland.
About 65 kilometers from Poland, the Sparrow industrial park is burning after Russia’s attack wave:
“In Lviv, four people were killed and four others injured,” the statement said. “In Zaporizhzhia, one person was killed and 10 were injured after Russia targeted residential areas with drones and aerial bombs. Across all affected areas, residential buildings and critical infrastructure were damaged.”
Remarks from President Zelensky indicated that some 50 missiles and about 500 attack drones were launched at this country.
“The Russians once again targeted our infrastructure – everything that ensures normal life for our people. We need more protection and faster implementation of all defense agreements, especially on air defense, to deprive this aerial terror of any meaning,” he said Sunday.
Russia’s southern Belgorod region has meanwhile continued to come under repeat drone threat from Ukraine, with over 100 drones sent against Belgorod throughout Saturday, the oblast’s governor has said.
* * * LOOK AT IT
Now get a jump on your holiday shopping
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/.USA
Supplying Tomahawk Missiles To Ukraine Will Destroy US-Russia Relations, Putin Warns
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any Washington decision to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory would irreparably damage Moscow’s relations with Washington.
The warning comes less than two months after Putin met with President Donald Trump at a summit in Alaska, which sought de-escalation in Ukraine and was focused on improving bilateral relations. But now Putin is making clear that these relations could be destroyed, also at a moment the extension to the New START nuclear treaty has left some breathing room for nuclear negotiations.
“This will lead to the destruction of our relationship. Or at least the emerging positive trends in this relationship. So I’m saying what I think. And how things turn out depends not only on us,” Putin said in a fresh interview with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin, parts of which were widely published Sunday.
Given the Tomahawk missile has a range of at least 1,500 miles, it could potentially hit Moscow and offices of Kremlin leaders, unleashing the likelihood of runaway escalation toward WW3. This is basically what Moscow is now warning about.
Already the US has said it is assisting Kiev with long-range targeting, which has included daily drone warfare, sometimes reaching over 800 miles into Russia with strikes on energy facilities. Probably such intel-sharing had long been happening for years in the war.
Vice President J.D. Vance had last week indicated the US is looking into the European request to send Tomahawks, and the Kremlin has said it would be deeply surprised if the US took this step.
Still, Trump has voiced frustration with Putin, going so far as to call Russia a “paper tiger” for its inability to quickly and decisively defeat Ukraine.
Yet it should be remembered that Russia’s actions are still only at the level of “Special Military Operation” and a full war mobilization has not been ordered.
Moscow has not revealed an intent to utterly destroy Kiev, and for the most part has not begun obliterating ‘decision-making’ centers, leaving open a chance for de-escalation.
Putin also last Thursday separately pointed out it was impossible to use Tomahawks without the direct participation of American specialists and thus any supply of these missiles to Ukraine would trigger a “qualitatively new stage of escalation.”
“This will mean a completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation, including in relations between Russia and the United States,” Putin emphasized.
end
UKRAINE//RUSSIA
Major drone attack on an ammo plant and oil terminal
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Mounts Major Drone Attack On Russian Ammo Plant, Oil Terminal & Arms Depot
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 11:55 AM
Over the weekend we reported that largescale Saturday overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine reportedly hit major arms production facilities and the energy infrastructure supplying them, particularly in Lviv region, not far from the Polish border.
Sumy, Kharkov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Chernigov and Odessa regions, were also struck in waves of attacks which involved some 50 missiles and 500 drones. On Monday it appears Ukraine’s forces answered back, as long-range drones scored hits on a major Russian ammunition plant, and yet another oil terminal, as well as a key weapons depot behind the front line, Associated Press reports.
Sverdlov ammunition plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region of western Russia overnight has been identified by Ukrainian General Staff as the target. Multiple explosions and a fire were widely observed at the plant which supplies an array of aviation and ground ordinance.
The oil terminal which was struck is in Crimea, also resulting in a fire, and the General Staff identified the ammo depot struck as belonging to Russia’s 18th Combined Arms Army.
Russia’s Defense Ministry offered vague acknowledgement of the attacks, only describing that over 250 Ukrainian drones were shot down (out of likely many hundreds or possibly nearing one thousand) across 14 Russian regions, making it one of the biggest single drone barrages over Russian territory in years.
At least one person was injured in the attack, hit by falling drone debris and was transported to a hospital in Nizhny Novgorod, Russian sources report.
Days prior to this latest attack, on October 4th Ukraine had hit a separate major oil facility. “An attack on Kirishi refinery run by Kirishinefteorgsintez in Leningrad, which has an annual capacity of 18.4 million tons of oil processing, caused explosions and a fire,” Newsweek reported.
“Images published by the independent Russian channel Astra showed a large explosion and flames rising from the refinery, while locals posted on social media about the blaze,” it added.
Both sides over the last months have clearly stepped up all-out assault’s on each other’s energy and weapons production sites.
Russia’s southern Belgorod region has also continued to come under repeat drone threat from Ukraine, with over 100 drones sent against Belgorod throughout Saturday, the oblast’s governor has said.
Among the weekend targets inside Russia which suffered serious damage…
As for Ukraine, it has been touting that more and more of its weapons are produced domestically – an initiative of course heavily aided by the Western allies – which gives Moscow incentive to locate and destroy such manufacturing plants.
But President Zelensky has also been highlighting what he says is a trend. “During the massive combined strike on Ukraine on the night of October 5, Russia used 549 weapon systems containing 102,785 foreign-made components,” he said on social media.
ROBERT H
Did Russia Just Test a New Weapon in Dneipropetrovsk?
I encourage you to read this and the attachment.
Last year when I wrote about Oreshnik ( hazelnut) i explained that there had been a shift in Russian thinking borne out of science and a need to stand tall without the use of nuclear weapons in defense. As a leading BRICS nation out of need not choice Russia needed to develop new thinking towards war given the desire to paint the West as the rogue threatening the world with the concept of nuclear strike. Their audience is much broader with the Global South and not just the West.
Given the distinct lead the Russian have in hypersonic weapon systems both offensive and defensive a conscious decision was made some years ago to distance themselves from having to rely on nukes. Using their scientific prowess unmatched by the West development of new systems to gain a completely new horde of weapons was commenced.
You have seen this in layered defensive systems in constant improvement. Each failure is treated as learning experience to gain new functional knowledge to improve. Even Oreshnik while in serial production has now been elevated to a new missile called Ghost. Faster and smarter and not visible in flight.
What these videos show is that Russia continues to use Ukraine as a testing ground for a complete suite of a new generation of weapon systems not seen by the West. This was actually started in Syria. Each such demonstration is really a warning. Because with each successful test. Serial production starts and shatters the illusion of success for an aggressor. When public admission occurs it is because it has already happened. It is the Russian way.
Should the EU and its’ Neocon fools really want to see what war with Russia will be, this along with Oreshnik are simple examples of what will be unleashed on mass. The use of nukes by Russia is now considered a failure of new science, if that is resorted to in defense. Each week brings more weapon systems to use in serial production for defense and not offense.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Reason for so many getting hit: lack of immunity
(zerohedge)
CDC Says 98 People Sickened In Norovirus Outbreak On Royal Caribbean Ship
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
An outbreak of norovirus sickened 98 people on a Royal Caribbean cruise ahead of its final destination in Miami, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sept. 30.
The outbreak on the cruise line’s Serenade of the Seas was reported to the health agency over the past weekend. Around 94 passengers onboard the ship reported being ill, along with four crew members.
More than 2,700 passengers and crew members are on board the ship, the CDC says. According to a cruise tracking service, the Serenade of the Seas departed San Diego on Sept. 19 and is slated to arrive in Miami on Thursday, as it made stops in Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.
The “causative agent” was listed by the CDC as norovirus, a group of viruses that can cause severe diarrhea and vomiting. The primary symptoms listed by the agency on the ongoing outbreak were vomiting and diarrhea.
In response to the norovirus outbreak, Royal Caribbean said that it will increase cleaning and disinfection procedures on board the ship, collect stool specimens for testing, isolate crew and passengers who have symptoms, and consult with the CDC on its procedures and reporting cases to the agency.
Responding to the CDC’s report, a spokesperson for the cruise operator told The Epoch Times on Thursday that “the health and safety of our guests, crew, and the communities we visit are our top priority,” adding that the company’s staff “implement rigorous cleaning procedures, many of which far exceed public health guidelines.”
So far in 2025, there have been 19 gastrointestinal outbreaks on cruise ships. Fourteen of those outbreaks were caused by norovirus, according to the CDC.
An outbreak of the virus in July also impacted Royal Caribbean line Navigator of the Seas, which sickened 141 people out of more than 5,100 passengers and crew, the agency said.
Health officials say that symptoms of norovirus include vomiting, diarrhea, and nausea. The virus also spreads easily through contaminated food or surfaces, or through close contact.
Symptoms of the virus generally start 12 to 48 hours after exposure, the Mayo Clinic says. Symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea tend to last one to three days.
While most people recover without treatment, some people—such as older adults or young children—have to seek medical attention due to dehydration caused by vomiting and diarrhea, the clinic also says.
The CDC says that there are around 2,500 reported outbreaks of norovirus each year, and the virus usually spreads when infected individuals spread it to others via direct contact.
In a normal year, according to the CDC, norovirus causes between 19 million and 21 million cases of vomiting and diarrhea, 109,000 hospitalizations, and 900 deaths across the United States. The virus is associated with about 495,000 emergency department visits, mostly in younger children.
“Norovirus can be especially challenging to control on cruise ships because of the close living quarters, shared dining areas, and rapid turnover of passengers,” the agency says. When the ship docks, norovirus can be brought on board in contaminated food or water; or by passengers who were infected while ashore.”
Norovirus can also persist on surfaces for days or weeks and is resistant to many common disinfectants, officials say.
GLOBAL ISSUES
The Great Barrington Declaration At Five Years
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 12:15 PM
Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Commentary
It was 8:45 a.m. and the date was Aug. 23, 2020. We were five months into the pandemic panic. The isolation and strangeness had become unbearable not only to me personally but to vast numbers. The businesses and schools were closed. Anthony Fauci of NIAID and all his media cheerleaders seemed to be the only narrative around.
Everyone was waiting for something. One day rolled into the next, marked by unbearable repetition, each turn of the clock nearly indistinguishable from the last one and the next one. Everyone seemed to be waiting for something to happen but it was not clear what that was.
I had been writing about pandemic planning for 15 years and knew that what was going on was a grave error. Indeed, from January 2020 I had warned that some people imagined that the way to battle a virus was through an elaborate duck-and-cover ritual that contradicted the whole history of public health. By mid-March, 2020, the experiment was on, and the world economy was being strangled.
The usual proponents of free enterprise and civil liberties fell silent. This was mostly for reasons of career protection. It was obvious at the time what everyone was supposed to say: listen to the science, we are all in this together, wear your mask, don’t do your own research, stop longing for your “freedumb.” Most everyone in the professional classes went along, partially because so many people enjoyed working from home and receiving vast sums from the government dropped directly in their bank accounts.
Desperate for allies in this struggle, I happened to notice a professor at Harvard was posting some sensible things. Not sure why this particular post made it through the censors but it did and I read it. I was thrilled, and decided to try my luck. That early morning, I dropped him a note on Twitter direct messaging. I invited him for dinner. He accepted.
That was the beginning of a long friendship that continues to this day. But it was also the beginning of the hardest years of our lives. Martin Kulldorff and I visited each other and I learned from him: about public health principles, natural immunity, the normal course of respiratory infection waves, how to deal with the many features of such pathogens, and so on.
It was Martin’s idea to broaden the discussion. What if we invite a group of top journalists in and offer some expert commentary? This would surely help improve their reporting. Maybe then they would stop simply echoing the crazy claims coming from the CDC and NIH. That struck me as a good idea, so I went to work on logistics. The deadline was tight: two weeks.
The problems began immediately. Not a single reporter responded to my invitation. I could not understand why. Three of the world’s top epidemiologists—Martin plus Jay Bhattacharya (now directing the NIH) and Sunetra Gupta—were coming together for their benefit. Why were they not interested in learning more about the subject they were covering for TV and newspapers?
The gathering took place anyway. I managed to get three journalists there. One was John Tamny of RealClearMarkets. Another was independent writer and researcher David Zweig. The third was a stringer for the British Medical Journal who wore a mask during the entire event and never left the room without dousing herself with hand sanitizer. I got as many warm bodies in that room as possible, if only to make the event seem less like a waste of time.
The scientists were brilliant of course. They explained epidemiological basics, such as the tradeoff pathogenic prevalence against its severity subject to latency. We learned about spread and therapeutics. They discussed the features of SARS-CoV-2, especially its huge spread in fatalities between young and old, a thousand-fold difference. It’s the older people about whom we should be worrying. We talked about the meaning of herd immunity and the means by which pathogenic endemicity would arrive in time.
The meeting came and went and we all wondered what was next. It was the scientists’ idea to write a short document centered on the principles of public health. They got busy and it was finished in one evening. The Great Barrington Declaration was born. It was signed the next day. But even then, there was the question of what came next. They had the idea of putting it online. Lou Eastman, who now works for Brownstone Institute, got busy. We snagged a domain and he built the entire site overnight.
We were open for signatories the following morning. We worked so fast that we hadn’t really prepared for the onslaught of names who signed much less the aggressive trolls who bypassed the verification system yet to be built. As soon as some fake names got through, the media lit up with attacks suggesting that the entire effort was a tissue of lies signed by fake names. We hardly slept for the weeks following as we kept up with the media onslaught, none of which we had expected.
Later it turned out that the document had gotten the attention of NIH head Francis Collins and Fauci. They had ordered a “quick and devastating takedown” of this document written by “fringe epidemiologists.” This helped make sense of the slew of articles that had appeared that told everyone not to believe anything in the declaration. It was an information war. It just so happened that we had bypassed the censors and had reached people with some sensible points in a sea of fallacy.
The very name of the document scandalized the city council of Great Barrington itself. They wrote a certified letter that called us all terrible names. We were immoral. We were anti-science. We were ruining the name of the town, exploiting its residents and attracting the wrong kind of visitors. And so on. I read it quickly and laughed, tossing it aside. Now I wished I had kept it. It would be worth something on eBay.
Only much later did I come to realize the reason this document triggered the establishment so hard. It wasn’t because it opposed lockdowns. It was because it offered the hope of getting through the conditions of pandemic through exposure and recovery, i.e. the upgrading of the immune system through natural immunity. The industry had a product to sell, one they called a vaccine, and this document was ruining their plans. After all, they had kept most of the world population locked down for fully 8 months; they wanted the shots to be the only pathway out.
Most people today will grant that the Great Barrington Declaration was completely correct. We did get through the period of pain the usual way. Everyone got the virus. Most everyone recovered. The lockdowns, the masking, the mandatory separation, the attacks on free speech and religious liberty, the crazed efforts at compliance, and the forced potion injections all did grave damage.
Meanwhile, the craziness of the times caused mass confusion over what exactly happened. The terms “case,” “infection,” and “exposure” got all mixed up so that we didn’t actually know what was what. The inaccuracies of the PCR tests created the illusion of knowledge without the reality. And the vast government subsidies for COVID deaths caused widespread misclassification. To this day, we do not actually know how many people died from COVID. Most of the charts are useless from an epidemiological point of view.
There are many lessons to draw, mostly related to how effective the statement was. Sometimes you just have to say what is true, even when it proves professionally costly. This was one of those times, and the three scientists who did this deserve eternal credit. Speaking strategically, it taught me something else: the best way to beat fake science is with real science. That’s hitting the bad guys where they are most vulnerable.
Five years later, I feel great gratitude for having been part of this effort. Those were the most painful years of our lives. We all have stories to tell. We should tell them. And remember the lessons, as we continue the research into precisely who or what was behind this calamity. The Great Barrington Declaration was, above all else, an act of profound moral courage. Even now, this is what makes a difference.
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Jill Biden cancels speech; Lola Young collapses onstage, cancels all shows; Teddy Swims loses voice onstage; Mavericks’ Raul Malo cancels all shows; Sleeping with Sirens cancels tour
Avenged Sevenfold cancels South American tour (“There’s no way I can sing like this”); BR: footie João Pedro will no longer play in 2025; NE: footie Bas Dost, 36, retires after cardiac arrest mid-game
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 3 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Cancelations:
UNITED STATES
Former first lady Jill Biden speaking engagement in Santa Cruz canceled
September 25, 2025
A talk by former first lady Jill Biden [74] scheduled for this weekend in Santa Cruz has been canceled, according to the venue that was set to host the event. The event, titled “An Evening with Dr. Jill Biden” was set to take place at the Kaiser Permanente Arena, home of the Santa Cruz Warriors basketball team, on Saturday night. In a statement to CBS News Bay Area Wednesday afternoon, a spokesperson for the Santa Cruz Warriors said the event was canceled earlier this month due to “unforeseen circumstances.” The event with the former first lady was announced over the summer, with ticket sales beginning on July 16.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s Note – Jill Biden Caught COVID After ‘Double’ Vaccination [sic] and Booster Shots [sic]: Link
Avenged Sevenfold postpone 2025 South American tour: “There’s just no way I can sing like this”
September 27, 2025
Avenged Sevenfold have postponed their South American tour at the very last minute due to a vocal injury suffered by singer M Shadows [44]. Despite being due to kick off their tour in Buenos Aires on September 25th, the band took to social media to share the unfortunate news on September 26th, a day after the first postponed show. The post on X was accompanied by a caption that began, “With a heavy heart, and regretfully, we have to announce that due to a specific condition called a vocal fold hematoma, we have made the necessary decision to push our tour to early next year.” After finding a doctor to talk to in Argentina, the singer got his throat scoped. He uncovered that he has a “hematoma on my left vocal fold, which is the same injury I had in 2017. In 2017, though, I decided to keep singing through it. Took a bunch of pills, and [it] ended up resulting in surgery.” Despite the logistical nightmare that will ensue, Shadows admitted that there’s “just no way I can sing like this.” As a result, the seven shows have all been rescheduled for January 2026.
Singer Teddy Swims cancels mid-show after reportedly losing voice
September 27, 2025
HONOLULU, HI – A popular show had to be canceled at the Waikiki Shell Friday night. American singer-songwriter Teddy Swims [33], known for his soul, country, and pop music, was in Hawaii for his world tour. The singer reportedly sang two songs before losing his voice and had to cancel the rest of the show. On a post to his Instagram story, Swims said Friday’s show has been rescheduled for Sunday.
Beloved Country Music Star, 60, Cancels All Shows As Cancer Has ‘Taken a Turn’
September 24, 2025
Mavericks frontman Raul Malo has been courageously battling stage 4 colon cancer, but the road to recovery has been challenging. On Wednesday, September 24, Malo shared a tough update with his fans: due to his ongoing health issues, the band will be canceling all remaining concerts for the year. “I want to update you all on my health, as things have taken a turn,” Malo wrote to his followers on Instagram. He revealed that he has developed leptomeningeal disease (LMD) — a serious condition that occurs when cancer cells invade the membranes surrounding the brain and spinal cord. “As it goes with cancer, it’s a very unpredictable and indiscriminatory disease. I’ve developed something called LMD, which stands for ‘get this sh-t out of my head.’” Malo explained that while this diagnosis is serious, he is focusing on rest and recovery as he continues his treatment. “It’s time to take your words to heart of resting & recovering, so that’s what I’m going to do,” he wrote. Since his original diagnosis, The Mavericks have continued to tour, but now, the band has announced that all remaining concerts scheduled for 2025 will be canceled.
Researcher’s Note – The Mavericks- February 7, 2021: We are getting closer and closer to getting back to work! Please, please let’s do this! Our industry has been gutted by this pandemic [sic]. It’s not just the musicians that have gone without work…bus drivers, crews, and techs are some of the people in musicians’ teams that have not had a paycheck in over a year. It’s not just musicians’ camps that have suffered. For a show night a venue alone employs sound and light techs, security, vendors, janitors, drivers, parking attendants, caterers, and the list goes on and on. Right now there’s a lot of misinformation, apprehension, and fear when it comes to this vaccine [sic]. Please help me in encouraging people to take this. It is safe! If we want to get back to packing venues so that we can experience live music again this is how we do it. We can’t waste any more time. Please help me encourage others to do this…thank you, Raul Malo #vaccinesaresexy: Link
Rock band cancels entire US tour, San Antonio show included
October 1, 2025
Fans who were hoping to scream their hearts out about their “forever” this fall will sadly have to wait for another tour. Sleeping with Sirens, the rock band best known for its songs “If You Can’t Hang,” and “If I’m James Dean, You’re Audrey Hepburn,” has officially cancelled their tour.
The tour was set to end in San Antonio at Vibes Event Center on October 22. It would have been their latest show in San Antonio since October 2024.
A statement was posted on the band’s social media from the the band’s lead singer, Kellin Quinn, who said his wife’s recent health issues are what led to the decision.
BRAZIL
João Pedro will no longer play in 2025
September 23, 2025
Grêmio announced, on Tuesday afternoon, another absence for the remainder of the season. After Villasanti, Balbuena, and Braithwaite, Grêmio will be without João Pedro [24] in 2025. The right-back was diagnosed with subclavian vein thrombosis. According to the club’s official statement, the player reported pain in his right shoulder in recent days. Medical tests were performed, which detected a vascular lesion. João Pedro will undergo catheterization to remove the clot and will need long-term anticoagulant medication.
UNITED KINGDOM
Lola Young Collapses Mid-Performance, Carried Off Stage by Medical Team During N.Y.C. Music Festival
September 27, 2025
Lola Young collapsed while performing live at a New York City music festival. The singer, 24, suffered the medical ordeal mid-performance as she was singing “Conceited” at the All Things Go Music Festival at Forest Hills Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 27. Young was carried off-stage by medical team staff, as audience members cheered in support. Remi Wolf later appeared onstage, where she addressed the crowd, stating, “That was really f—— scary.” She added, “My friend Lola is backstage, and she is okay.” Earlier in the set, Young spoke about how she “had a tricky couple of days,” adding: “Sometimes life can really make you feel like you can’t continue, but you know what, today I woke up and I made the decision to come here, and I wanted to be cool … and sometimes life can throw you lemons, and you just gotta make lemonade.” Young’s onstage incident took place a day after she canceled her performance at Audacy’s We Can Survive concert on Friday, Sept. 26. Her manager, Nick Shymansky, shared a statement on her Instagram Stories, stating the musician had to pull out from the performance “due to a sensitive matter.” Shymansky alluded that Young’s cancellation could be tied to her mental health, which he said the star has been “very open about.” “There are [occasionally] days where myself and my team have to take protective measures to keep her safe,” he added. “She is an incredible person and always takes her fans, career and performances seriously. I can only send huge apologies for the inconvenience caused.” In 2022, Young opened up about her mental health and living with schizoaffective disorder, which she was diagnosed with at 17, in a candid Instagram post.
NETHERLANDS
Ex-Netherlands striker opens up on ‘maddening’ ordeal as heart inflammation forces him to retire following cardiac arrest during match
September 25, 2025
Former Netherlands international Bas Dost has announced his retirement from professional football. The decision comes after a lengthy battle with health issues following a cardiac arrest he suffered on the pitch in October 2023, with the player describing a major setback in his recovery as a “slap in the face” in an interview with Dutch newspaper Algemeen Dagblad. The terrifying incident occurred during an Eredivisie match between his club NEC and AZ, when Dost collapsed on the field and required resuscitation. He was later diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. After an initial prognosis of six months for recovery, Dost suffered a devastating blow. “It was maddening. The prognosis was that the inflammation would disappear after six months. I thought I’d be able to play again next season,” he said. “But in March, a scan was done – with dramatic results. The inflammation was almost back in full force. That was a slap in the face for me.” While the 36-year-old confirmed that “the inflammation is now gone,” the nearly two-year ordeal has prompted him to end his playing days.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
BOOM! Great move RFK Jr., huge praise for this move, gratitude! RFK Jr. fires Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo NIAID Director appointed by Fauci— Known Advocate for COVID Lockdowns, Malone mRNA Vaccine and
Mask Mandates, and Critic of Hydroxychloroquine; you did good RFK Jr., you did good here so let us hope this is the TRUE story as reported! built her reputation as a loyal defender of the COVID regime
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6 |
pushing lockdowns, championing vaccine and mask mandates for both adults and children, and smearing doctors who dared to question the official narrative.’ She famously blasted physicians promoting hydroxychloroquine as “despicable” and accused them of “violating their oath.”
Before taking over at NIAID, Marrazzo was the director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.’ On Wednesday, CBS News reported that Dr. Marrazzo received a letter from Secretary RFK Jr. notifying her that she had been removed from her position as director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Kennedy gave no explanation beyond citing his constitutional authority.’
I have read her work and statements, and this person was a nutcase, COVIDian Taliban. COVID Mandarin. Dangerous. RFK Jr. grew a pair here, lets hope he took it back from The Outlaw Susie Wales permanently.
She said:
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
The Wellness Company isn’t chasing profits — it’s trying to help people recover. While the government continues pushing vaccines, The Wellness Company is focusing on real solutions.
From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
Please consider support of a good PATRIOT company (in this PATRIOT economy) Drs. McCullough, Risch, Thorp, myself support (they are our sponsors), The Wellness Company; see the emergency preparation kit (key component being antibiotics you were denied by doctors, pharmacists, governments during the fraud COVID), first aid kit, travel emergency kit, contagion control kit etc. Please consider the SPIKE SUPPORT (spike protein DETOX dissolving spike from mRNA vaccine, this is critical to remove spike form the mRNA vaccine/and DNA viral vector) formula with NATTOKINASE as well as the triple formula (SPIKE SUPPORT, BROMELAIN, CIRCUMIN)
END
The ignored clinical trials on statins & mortality suggest that the evidence is wobbly, unequivocal at best, ambivalent, & actually shows you survive better on PLACEBO than statin
“A call to my colleagues: I am not saying never prescribe a statin. But I am saying we owe our patients the truth: The evidence that statins save lives is far shakier than advertised. Some trials
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6 |
‘Put bluntly: In these studies, placebo did as well, or better, than statins when it came to keeping patients alive. Not one showed a clear reduction in all-cause mortality. Some showed the opposite: more deaths on the drug.
This is not the story the public, or most of our colleagues, hear. Instead, statins are sold as life-savers, when the uncomfortable truth is that in several large, well-run trials, they failed the most basic test: prolonging life’
A call to my colleagues
- suggest the opposite, that patients may actually fare worse on drug than on placebo.
- And yet we continue to prescribe them reflexively, as though they were vitamin pills.
At the very least, we must stop pretending the cholesterol hypothesis is settled science. If anything, these ignored trials should force us to re-examine whether lowering LDL is the right target at all.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
If you want to live
It sounds heretical, but here is what the numbers show: If you want to live longer, in trial after trial, placebo was the better bet than the statin.”
‘But like many dogmas in medicine, the cracks are there if you dare to look. And some of the most damning cracks are found in a set of randomized trials that rarely get mentioned in the statin narrative.’
These are the ignored trials. Left out of the widely-cited meta-analysis by Silverman et al, they tell a story that should shake every clinician who still reflexively reaches for a statin prescription.
The shocking numbers
- In the EXCEL trial, all three pravastatin dose groups (20, 40, and 80 mg/day) showed more CHD deaths than placebo.
- Example: 0.50 percent vs 0.20 percent CHD mortality, a 150 percent relative risk increase for patients on pravastatin.
- In DEBATE, mortality was higher on the statin: 18.1 percent vs 17.4 percent total deaths, and CHD deaths were also worse (7.5 percent vs 6.0 percent).
- In GISSI-HF, rosuvastatin did not reduce death in patients with heart failure. In fact, total mortality was 28.75 percent vs 28.13 percent, a 2.2 percent relative risk increase with Crestor.
- SEAS and CORONA fared no better: slight excess mortality on the drug side, with no life-saving signal.
And then comes the kicker: IMPROVE-IT, the largest ignored trial, with approximately 18,000 post-ACS patients. Adding ezetimibe to simvastatin reduced LDL a bit further but had no impact on total mortality (13.40 percent vs 13.56 percent).
Placebo as the “better choice”
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Judge Rules Biden’s Offshore Oil Drilling Ban IllegalPresident Joe Biden’s ban on offshore drilling in certain parts of the ocean and the Gulf of America was illegal, a federal judge ruled on Oct. 2. U.S. District Judge James Cain of Louisiana ruled that both Biden and President Barack Obama went beyond their authority when they banned offshore drilling in parts of the Outer Continental Shelf because the …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| In a New Decision, Supreme Court Permits Trump to End Biden-Era Protections for Hundreds of Thousands of VenezuelansThe US Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Trump to end the Biden-era protections for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans. The decision was 6-3. All three liberal justices dissented. Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson fumed in her dissent. “I cannot abide our repeated, gratuitous, and harmful interference with cases pending in the lower courts while lives hang in the balance, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Hakeem Jeffries Claims Republicans Will Cave to Democrats Over ‘Public Sentiment’House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expressing the belief that Republicans will cave to Democrats, attributing that prediction to “public sentiment.” He didn’t mention, however, that it was the Democrats who shut down the government for political purposes. Given the way that the president has been tweeting memes about you, has been in your words, in the words of …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BREAKING: DOJ Removes Another High-Ranking Deep State Prosecutor in Virginia Following Comey IndictmentAnother high-ranking prosecutor in the Eastern District of Virginia has been fired. Last month, President Trump fired Erik Siebert as the US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia because he refused to bring charges against Letitia James, Comey, Schiff, and others. Shortly after Siebert’s firing, Lindsey Halligan, the new Acting US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, indicted …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Attorney General Pam Bondi Orders Investigation Into Nick Sortor’s ArrestThe Trump Administration is taking action following the arrest of one of the most prominent conservative journalists in America. Portland Police arrested Sortor on Thursday night after he defended himself from Antifa thugs. The woman who attacked him was not arrested. X user Mark Wilson shared a clip showing Sortor being led away in handcuffs. “Portland PD arrested a journalist, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
The Cold, Hard Airport-Floor Truth
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 10:00 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
There is some irony that this Global Daily author, who has written about geopolitical events such as drone incursions into Europe regularly, was trapped in Munich airport on Friday night by what were reportedly military reconnaissance drones; had to sleep on the floor with 3,500 stranded souls like a scene from a zombie movie; was rerouted via other destinations so the door-to-door journey was 42 hours; and had his suitcase lost by the airline on the way out AND on the way back. However, it underlines anyone thinking current life is ‘normal’ is living in a bubble.
Europe, for all its talk, seemingly has no way of dealing with these drones. Whose are they? We don’t know. Why are they not being shot down when spotted – a lack of ammo or a lack of will? We don’t know. Given that the plan for an EU ‘drone wall’ was shot down immediately as unworkable –which it is given the scale of territory involved– what is workable and allows people to work? Logically, without a plan we can expect more flights to be disrupted, with a growing economic impact.
Meanwhile, the world around us is in equal flux – but with some plans, both good and bad.
President Trump told CNN that Hamas faces “complete obliteration” if it refuses to cede power in Gaza, saying he’ll “soon know” if the group is serious about peace. Negotiators meet in Egypt today, so fingers crossed. Trump also reportedly Israeli PM Netanyahu to “take the win” and not to always be “so f***ing negative.” Either more massive violence or a sudden peace looms there – and both could prove transformative. Europe is merely an observer either way.
There are unsubstantiated reports that China is providing Russia with satellite information to allow it to make missile strikes in Ukraine. Would that be a red line for Europe, or do European red lines there echo those of its policy over drone incursions?
The recent 100,000 SIM card plot to disrupt telecoms in New York around the UN general assembly was even larger than thought, says the US ABC, as it included New Jersey. Despite this being something which only a state would be capable of doing, and which only a few states would have even attempted, it isn’t being mentioned much by the media, either in the US or Europe.
Latin America remains on edge as the US Monroe Doctrine returns in force to push back against entrenched Russian, Iranian, Hamas/Hezbollah, and Chinese influence and whispers are that a move against Venezuela looms. Europe thinks an FTA with Mercosur is some kind of answer.
In Africa, ‘Trump’s peace hopes for Rwanda-Congo face threats’, says The Hill. Other locations also look concerning.
In domestic politics, the FT reports “enormous fear” given Trump’s threats against Soros and the non-profits sector, while a judge temporarily blocked the president from sending National Guard troops to Oregon.
In France, as he appoints new government ministers, PM Lecornu “tries to save skin by ruling out use of constitutional backdoor”, according to Politico; that’s as EU Commission President Von der Leyen faces another EU parliament confidence vote debate today.
In the UK, the government is considering banning repeat public protests; foreigners will be banned from claiming benefits, says the opposition Tory party, following the lead of Reform UK and Trump; yet Reform is seen likely to raise Kent council tax after its cost-cutting drive faltered, says the FT, showing there may be no way to cut spending in the UK, like the US, with the looming November national budget all about how much taxes rise, and on whom.
Japan’s first female PM, Sanae Takaichi, has already seen equities soar and 40-year bond yields do the same. She is seen as an Abe- or Trump-like figure, but with inflation now back, the BOJ slowly hiking, and the Yen nearly double the level vs the US dollar that it was when Abe launched his ‘three arrows’ well over a decade ago — and the US unhappy about currency devaluations– to say nothing about Japan’s domestic political dynamic, what is the plan?
In geoeconomics, it’s clearly protectionism and barter to avoid the weaponization of the US-centric financial system. For example, ‘China hawks grow queasy over Trump’s push for deals with Beijing’, says Bloomberg; ‘“Worse than Trump’s tariffs”: EU steel protections poised to pummel British industry’, adds Politico; ‘Chinese cars for Iranian metals: how sanctions revived barter trade’, notes Bloomberg; and ‘How China secretly pays Iran for oil and avoids US sanctions’, from the WSJ shows a “Hidden arrangement secured by prominent Chinese insurer connects Tehran with its biggest customer”.
Put that all together and we see that ‘America is now one big bet on AI’ (FT) as “It’s seen as the magic fix for every threat to the US economy.” Indeed, ‘Elon Musk Gambles Billions in Memphis to Catch Up on AI’, says WSJ, where “the city is divided over the massive power and water demands.” China is obviously all in in its own way. Naturally, the ‘EU pushes new AI strategy to reduce tech reliance on US and China’ (FT), with a plan for “digital sovereignty” – just without any of its own AI giants or the cheap energy needed to power it, and alongside rearmament and other acronymic wish-lists.
As a senior Wall Street figure just noted current AI mania only had bubble-like qualities, one might say what we currently have instead is merely ‘sparkling malinvestment’. Yet looked at politically, AI is a double-or-quits bet on a way to get us out of our current structural morass — while destabilizing society in the process, warn some. And looked at geopolitically, it’s about the military: get military AI working properly and all bets are off. In fact, if one were deeply cynical one could argue regulators are happy to overlook wild market pricing at the moment in the pursuit of a private sector driven Manhattan Project.
Trying to some things up, Foreign Affairs magazine just published ‘Reading Schmitt in Beijing’, which argues the US drift away from both neoliberalism and liberalism mirrors its focus on China. Indeed, and that’s something I’d predicted as far back in late 2017: clearly think tanks and academics aren’t about their speed of thought.
Markets, once they finally get the gist of something, act much faster. For example, the main FT headline at the time of writing was all about gold: ‘‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally’, as “Price has rocketed nearly 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in”. Bitcoin is also back a fresh record high. I wonder why – and it isn’t all about “rate cuts!”, even if they do play a role in it.
Really, there’s nothing like a forced night’s sleep on a cold, hard airport floor to sharpen your focus on how the world actually works right now. If you still aren’t seeing it yourself, I suspect you may also get to experience it, or its equivalent, in the not-too-distant future.
Pack a spare blanket and toothbrush.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Unplanned Flaring Event Reported At Chevron’s El Segundo Refinery Following Explosion
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 08:25 PM
Chevron’s 285,000 b/d El Segundo refinery in Los Angeles County suffered a major fire late Thursday, the cause of which remains unclear amid mounting speculation on X. Although the blaze was extinguished by Friday afternoon, multiple unplanned flare events have been reported since then, indicating potential issues with refining production or equipment failures in critical units. The longer the disruption at one of the most critical refineries on the West Coast continues, the greater the potential impact on Southern California fuel prices – a region home to major military installations and key port infrastructure, which only raises the question about energy security and whether this incident was an industrial accident or something more deliberate.
In recent days, the Segundo refinery has experienced multiple unplanned flare events, which typically indicate a process upset or equipment malfunction that requires operators to burn off excess hydrocarbons for safety reasons.
Flarings occur when refinery systems (like compressors, distillation units, or heat exchangers) suddenly fail or pressure builds up unexpectedly. To prevent explosions or toxic gas releases, the flare system activates and burns the gases instead of a vented release.
Some of the typical causes of flare events:
- Compressor or pump failure
- Power outage or voltage drop
- Sudden feedstock quality change
- Overpressure event in distillation or cracking units
- Instrumentation/control system malfunction
There’s been no word from El Segundo refinery officials about the cause of the two unplanned flare events, and no official statement has yet been released on what triggered Thursday night’s explosion at the facility.
On Friday, Bloomberg cited Wood Mackenzie, which said shutdowns include a 60,000 b/d catalytic reformer, a 45,000 b/d hydrocracker, a 73,000 b/d fluid catalytic cracker (FCC), and two hydrogen plants. The fire began in the convection section of a furnace tied to the Hydrocracker/ISOMAX complex. This area of the refinery produces diesel and jet fuel.
Goldman analyst Adam Wijaya warned clients on Friday that “$8 gasoline concerns are very real for CA” following the fire at the refinery (read report).
In a separate note, Goldman analyst James McGeoch noted: What looks like a large fire at CVX’s el Segundo refinery in California. 280kbpd nameplate, around 100kbpd of gasoline and the same jet/diesel. Cali is quite a contained mkt but if it’s offline for a while it’ll have some spillover to broader mid-west US (+BP) and global jet (+ve REP).
The refinery is situated in the heart of Southern California’s military-industrial complex, located down the street from major military bases, and fuels the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, two ports that handle 40% of all U.S. containerized imports.
We asked a very simple question: “Is someone sabotaging it?”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
Hegseth Announces 4th Deadly Strike On ‘Narco-Terrorist’ Boat Off Venezuela
Friday, Oct 03, 2025 – 03:20 PM
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced Friday another military strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat off Venezuela which killed four people.
This marks at least the fourth such attack, and after President Trump formally notified Congress this week that the US was entering a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels. Hegseth made clear on social media, “These strikes will continue until the attacks on the American people are over!!!!”
Hegseth affirmed in a social media post that he had directed the latest strike on Trump’s orders, and released overhead drone video of the attack.
“The strike was conducted in international waters just off the coast of Venezuela while the vessel was transporting substantial amounts of narcotics – headed to America to poison our people,” Hegseth said on X.
“Our intelligence, without a doubt, confirmed that this vessel was trafficking narcotics, the people onboard were narco-terrorists, and they were operating on a known narco-trafficking transit route,” he added.
Trump’s rationale for the attacks in the aforementioned memo states the cartels are “non-state armed groups” whose actions smuggling drugs “constitute an armed attack against the United States”.
As for Hegseth, his post claimed the boat was “affiliated with Designated Terrorist Organizations” – however there remains a legal dispute as to whether merely labeling a cartel as an FTO automatically warrants military action, and without warning or attempt to intercept the vessel.
In particular the administration has essentially declared war on the Tren de Aragua cartel, and says it is cooperating with the Maduro government, which Caracas has rejected, and so the presence of the cartel’s members in the US is a “predatory incursion” by a foreign nation.
The new footage of the Friday (presumably) drone attack…
The Washington Examiner on Thursday said that war could be on the horizon. The publication “understands that military planners believe the assembled forces are now sufficient to seize and hold key strategic facilities such as ports and airfields on Venezuelan territory (the Washington Examiner is withholding some details for national security reasons).” And for now it appears the occasional attack on small alleged drug boats will continue.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1664 DOWN 0.0072 PTS OR 72 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 150.07 UP 2.726 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3437 UP .0033 OR 33 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3955 UP 0.0018 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED HOLIDAY
Hang Seng CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.09%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.09 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 2,175.26 PTS OR 4.75%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3944.00
silver:$48.71
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.11 UP 69 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.118% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.689% UP 3 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.293 UP 14 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.254 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.568 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7145 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1687 DOWN 0.0050 OR 50 basis points
USA/Japan: 150.04 UP 2.695 OR YEN IS DOWN 270 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7370 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.552 UP 5 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN .0032 OR 32 BASIS pts to 1.3965
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN ATXXXX CLOSED CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1444
TURKISH LIRA: 41.69 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.689 UP 3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.293 UP 14 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.164% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.758 UP 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.597 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 3930.26
SILVER AT 10;00: 48.47
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 12.81 PTS OR 0.13%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 0.51 pts or 0.00%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 109.36 pts or 1.36%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 28.40pts or 0.18%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 111.98 or 0.26%
WTI Oil price 61.36 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.10 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 83.17 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 13/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.222 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.757 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1715 UP 0.0021 OR 21 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3485 UP .0018 OR 18 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7350 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.560 UP 5 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.686 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.295 UP 14 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.24 UP 2.891 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3947 UP 0.0010 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.90
Brent OIL: 65.53
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.170
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 PTS to 4.763%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 3.599%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.216 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.757 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.77 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.69 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83/18 DOWN 0 AND 93/100 roubles //
GOLD $3963.25 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 48.61 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 63.31 OR 0.64%
NASDAQ 100 UP 193.04 PTS OR 0.78%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.31 DOWN 0.34 PTS OR 2.04%
GLD: $ 364.38 UP 6.74 PTS OR 2.35%
SLV/ $44.05 UP 0.53 PTS OR OR 1.32%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 62.45 PTS OR 0.20%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Hit 7th Straight Record High As AI Euphoria Pushes Semis To Most Overbought In A Decade
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks rise on tech led gains after AMD/OpenAI deal – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 04:05 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: AMD signs AI/chip deal with OpenAI; US government shutdown enters its second week; Takaichi wins Japanese LDP leadership election; French PM resigns; OPEC+ hikes by less than recent reports had suggested; Ukraine drone attacks continue on Russian oil refineries; FITB to buy CMA
- COMING UP: Data: German Industrial Orders (Aug), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, NY Fed SCE, Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), Ivey PMI (Sep), Chinese FX Reserves (Sep). Suspended: US International Trade, Consumer Credit. Events: EIA STEO. Speakers: Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari; ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel. Supply: Japan, UK, Germany, US. Earnings: McCormick & Company. Holiday: China, South Korea.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, RBNZ, Canada jobs, OPEC+, Japan LDP leadership election. Click here for the full report.
- CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes; Reviewing RBA and RBI. Click here for the full report.
- US WEEKLY EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Thin earnings docket with PEP the standout. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices were primarily green with outperformance in the Nasdaq thanks to the rally in AMD shares. AMD has signed a deal with OpenAI, with OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs based on a multi-year agreement. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Consumer Discretionary, Tech and Utilities leading the gains, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples and Health Care underperformed. Note, the Dow was the only sector to close red as Verizon (VZ) put downward pressure on the index following a CEO transition. US macro updates were light, given the US government shutdown entering its second week, with little sign of progress on a reopening so far. In FX, the Yen was the clear underperformer after Sanae Takaichi, who’s perceived to advocate for looser fiscal policy and a more delayed BoJ tightening cycle, won the LDP leadership election. Meanwhile, the Euro was also pressured after the French PM resigned on the view that he couldn’t form a working cabinet. Therefore, DXY saw modest strength due to the Yen and Euro weakness, while UST yields also moved higher. Treasury trade remains quiet amid the government shutdown and lack of data, with expected volatility in Treasuries (measured by the ICE BofA MOVE index) falling to lows last seen in December 2021. In commodities, crude prices are firmer following the modest OPEC+ 137k hike (some had expected 500k given recent reports). Meanwhile, gold surged above USD 3,900/oz as a possible solution to the US government shutdown remains to be seen. This week’s focus will lie on UST supply, several Fed speakers, FOMC Minutes, and the Prelim October UoM report.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 9 TICKS LOWER AT 112-12+
T-notes bear steepen ahead of supply while the government remains shutdown. At settlement, 2-year +2.3bps at 3.595%, 3-year +2.6bps at 3.613%, 5-year +3.5bps at 3.743%, 7-year +3.7bps at 3.938%, 10-year +3.9bps at 4.158%, 20-year +4.0bps at 4.721%, 30-year +4.1bps at 4.755%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.4bps at 3.228%, 3-year BEI +1.3bps at 2.676%, 5-year BEI +1.1bps at 2.417%, 10-year BEI +0.6bps at 2.330%, 30-year BEI +0.6bps at 2.247%.
THE DAY: T-notes were sold on Monday with Treasury traders still awaiting the resumption of key economic data amid the government shutdown. Bloomberg highlighted that the shutdown and lack of data have seen the ICE BofA MOVE Index fall to the lowest level since December 2021 on Friday, taking another leg lower following the shutdown. However, outside the US, price action was busy with volatile JGB trade overnight on the LDP Leadership election that saw Takaichi announced as LDP leader, initially seeing 10yr JGBs surge as the expansionist economic policies proposed saw traders dial back BoJ rate hike bets, albeit the move did pare with rate hikes only likely set to be postponed, not removed completely. Bloomberg reported that a Takaichi adviser said a hike by the BoJ in October would be too soon, but it would be better timed in December. Meanwhile, in Europe, OATs underperformed after the resignation of new French PM Lecornu, seeing the OAT-Bund 10yr spread widen to a new YTD peak of c. 88.2bps. There was little to digest from the US on Monday, given the shutdown, but this week will see UST supply, several Fed speakers, FOMC Minutes, and the Prelim October UoM report.
SUPPLY
Notes/Bonds
- US Treasury to sell USD 58bln in 3yr notes on Oct 7th, USD 39bln of 10yr notes on Oct 8th and USD 22bln in 30yr bonds on Oct 9th; all to settle October 15th; sizes all as expected
Bills
- US sold USD 84bln of 3-month bills at high rate of 3.850%, B/C 2.91x; sold USD 75bln of 6-month bills at high rate of 3.695%, B/C 3.04x.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 24bps), Dec 45bps (prev. 46bps), January 56bps (prev. 57bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 22bln (prev. 25bln) across 19 counterparties (prev. 14)
- EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.09%), volumes at USD 95bln (prev. 102bln) on October 3rd.
- SOFR at 4.18% (prev. 4.20%), volumes at USD 3.018tln (prev. 3.022tln) on October 3rd.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.81 HIGHER AT 61.69/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.94 HIGHER AT USD 65.47/BBL
Crude prices gained after a modest OPEC+ hike. In the Sunday meeting, OPEC+ agreed to hike production by 137k, a hike seen as modest given reports last week pointed towards a 500k bpd hike. The group remains cautious about increasing its production share in the global oil market due to predictions of an upcoming supply surplus in Q4 and into next year. Crude benchmarks gapped higher, hitting eventual peaks of USD 62.12/bbl and 65.77/bbl in WTI and Brent, respectively, before paring some strength throughout the day. Crude prices saw brief upside later in the session following Reuters reports that Russia’s Kirish oil refinery has halted its largest unit, the CDU-6, following a second attack from Ukraine in a month. The CDU-6 unit has a capacity of 160k bpd, accounting for ~40% of the plant’s total processing capacity. Industry sources noted that recovery could last a month. Sideways trade lasted into the oil settlement. Following Hamas’s agreement to release all Israeli hostages, Hamas and Israeli delegations began negotiations in Egypt. Note, UBS writes that oil demand has likely peaked for 2025 and should gradually fall in the months ahead. UBS expects Brent to remain in a USD 60-70/bbl band and estimates that the actual volume of additions from the OPEC+ 137bpd hike in November will be only 60-70k BPD.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.36% at 6,740, NDX +0.78% at at 24,979, DJI -0.14% at 46,695, RUT +0.41% at 2,486
SECTORS: Real Estate -0.99%, Consumer Staples -0.59%, Health -0.48%, Financials -0.11%, Materials +0.01%, Industrials +0.47%, Energy +0.52%, Technology +0.57%, Communication Services +0.88%, Utilities +0.98%, Consumer Discretionary +1.05%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.36% at 5,631, Dax 40 +0.07% at 24,396, FTSE 100 -0.15% at 9,477, CAC 40 -1.36% at 7,972, FTSE MIB -0.29% at 43,132, IBEX 35 -0.08% at 15,573, PSI +0.78% at 8,178, SMI +0.28% at 12,544, AEX +0.56% at 967
STOCK SPECIFICS
- AMD (AMD): Signed an AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, with an option for a 10% stake.
- Comerica (CMA): Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) to buy CMA in a USD 10.9bln deal.
- Critical Metals (CRML): The Trump admin rejected reports that it’s looking to take a stake in CRML.
- Tesla (TSLA): Teased an October 7th scheduled event.
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY): To acquire SciTec for ~USD 855mln.
- Micron (MU): Upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley.
- TPG (TPG): Upgraded at JPMorgan to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’.
- Papa John’s (PZZA), Shake Shack (SHAK), Portillo’s (PTLO), Sweetgreen (SG): Downgraded at BofA.
- Verizon (VZ): Appointed Dan Schulman as CEO, effective immediately. Reiterated FY guidance. Dan Schulman previously served as the CEO of PayPal (PYPL).
- Spotify (SPOT): Announced that Spotify Free and Premium users can bring Spotify into their ChatGPT conversations.
- OpenAI: CEO Altman says, “there are many parts of AI that are kind of bubbly, I think this is how new tech revolutions go”. Meanwhile, Altman said ChatGPT now has 800mln active weekly users (vs 700mln in a mid-September report, and 400mln in February).
- Applovin (APP) has been probed by the SEC over data-collection practices, Bloomberg reports. Note, Muddy Research earlier in the year published a short report alleging that AppLovin’s ad tactics “systematically” violate app stores’ terms of service by “impermissibly extracting proprietary IDs from Meta, Snap, TikTok, Reddit, Google, and others.” In so doing, AppLovin is funnelling targeted ads to users without their consent.
FX
The Dollar Index was bid, largely thanks to heavy JPY selling after the Japanese LDP election (more below). Aside from political developments in France and Japan, US newsflow remained on the quiet side as the US government shutdown entered its second week. Tier 1 releases were absent, and so was Fed speak, leaving international developments as the main drivers. Trade updates saw US President Trump announce 25% tariffs on all medium and heavy-duty truck imports into the US. Meanwhile, Trump and Brazilian officials sounded optimistic about the call between Trump and Brazilian President Lula, with Lula asking Trump to withdraw 40% tariffs on all Brazilian goods. The dollar remained muted towards the trade subject. DXY sits at ~98.10 from Friday’s close of 97.71.
The Euro and OATs faced pressure following the French PM’s resignation after recent appointments to the PM’s cabinet were met with heavy disapproval from opposing parties. GE/FR spreads hit their widest level since January, with the focus now on President Macron’s next steps, namely, if and who he appoints as successor. As it stands, outgoing PM Lecornu and Macron are to hold last-ditch talks, with Lecornu remarking that he will tell Macron by Wednesday evening if it is possible or not, so he can draw the appropriate conclusions. EUR/USD now trades lower at ~1.1710 from earlier 1.1741 highs. GBP, CAD, and CHF were little changed against USD.
JPY was by far the worst G10 performer to start the week, weighed by Sanae Takaichi winning the LDP Leadership election. Takaichi is viewed by markets as an advocate for looser fiscal policy and for a delayed BoJ rate hike cycle, and as such, a bearish development for the Yen, putting USD/JPY at from at ~150.2 from earlier lows of 149.06. Takaichi adviser Honda said it would be a “bit too much” if USD/JPY breached 150. The move was accompanied by a dovish repricing in BoJ expectations, with a ~75% chance of a hold seen at the October meeting and ~50% chance in December. Next steps include BoJ Governor Ueda’s appearance on October 8th, and the Diet returning in mid-October with a vote to appoint LDP’s Takaichi as PM due thereafter. Elsewhere, risk-on trade was seen in Antipodes, with focus on the upcoming RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday.
BRL heads into APAC trade firmer against USD following positive commentary from the admin on Lula’s call with Trump. Discussions between the two are to continue, with Brazil aiming for the US to remove its 40% tariffs on its goods. Meanwhile, BCB’s Galipolo said central bankers currently believe the dollar’s behaviour is now responding much more to the US policy cycle and expectations of rate cuts. On inflation, Galipolo remarked it’s still far from the 3% target, and expects credit to slow down.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
“We’re At A Tipping Point” – Trucking Industry Facing “Horrible” Rates, Tariffs, Werner CEO Says
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 06:40 PM
By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,
At the WEX OTR Summit, Derek Leathers, chairman and CEO of Werner Enterprises, warned of tight capacity and higher operating costs in the trucking industry.
“We’re at a tipping point,” Leathers told attendees. “Capacity is leaving the market little by little. The industry needs significant rate increases to sustain itself. This isn’t just about survival — it’s about making sure trucking can continue to deliver America’s goods safely and reliably in the years ahead.”
WEX, a global commerce platform that simplifies the business of running a business, held its summit Wednesday through Friday in San Antonio, Texas.
The event brought together over 150 leaders from the over-the-road trucking industry for two days of insight, innovation and collaboration.
With the theme of “The Road Ahead,” this year’s summit features keynotes, and strategic discussions on the trends shaping transportation, including fuel management, fraud protection, payments technology and more.
The second day of the conference featured a keynote address from Leathers, who cited weak rates, new tariffs, driver shortages and cargo theft as key risks — even as nearshoring fuels U.S.–Mexico trade growth.
Leathers, whose company is one of the largest U.S. trucking and logistics providers, noted that freight rates have been challenging in recent years, leaving many small carriers unable to reinvest in equipment or operations.
Omaha-based Werner Enterprises was founded in 1956 and has around 8,000 trucks and over 24,000 trailers. The company provides service across North America.
“What’s going on in the freight environment right now? Obviously, rates have been depressed, and although it is stable, they are stably horrible for the most part over the last several years, well below people’s operating costs in many cases. At a minimum, not a reinvestable rate level,” Leathers said.
With Class 8 truck orders at historic lows and OEMs scaling back production, he predicted it could take years to rebuild manufacturing capacity, leading to higher truck prices “at the time we can least afford for them to be more expensive.”
Tariffs squeeze supply chains
Tariffs were another key focus of his address. Leathers cautioned that only about half of the tariff impact has reached consumers so far, with the rest absorbed by suppliers and retailers — a strain he expects will increasingly filter through the supply chain.
He also raised concerns over new tariffs on trucks made in Mexico, despite USMCA’s trade protections, arguing they will further inflate equipment costs.
“On the truck side, two thirds of all or three fourths of all truck makers actually exist and make their trucks in Mexico. If I had been betting on this stage a year ago, I would have lost that bet because I would have said that USMCA would supersede and that there would be no additional tariffs on trucks from our neighbors. Clearly that is not the case as we stand here today,” Leathers said.
Leathers also highlighted the industry’s growing safety and compliance challenges, including renewed enforcement of English-language proficiency rules for CDL holders and the scrutiny of B-1 visa drivers operating cross-border routes.
Nearshoring strengthens U.S.–Mexico trade
Looking at broader trends, he pointed to nearshoring as a lasting shift that will deepen U.S.–Mexico trade ties. Werner already moves more than 300 cross-border loads daily, a number he expects to grow as U.S. companies boost investment in Mexico.
“Mexico is the only neighboring country or even nearshoring option that actually has good demographics,” Leathers said. “Very few places in the world do and Mexico actually does have as many people coming into the population. as they’re losing from the population and that’s true for the next 10 to 20 years.”
Cargo theft and supply chain security
Beyond the macroeconomic headwinds, Leathers also addressed rising cargo theft, calling it a “terrifying” trend fueled by organized crime. He urged shippers and carriers to strengthen vetting and technology safeguards to protect supply chains.
“Cargo theft has continued to rise. I think when you see a population that feels underdressed, that’s when risky behavior seems to always increase over time,” Leathers said.
“I think this is an area where not having proper vetting of every single man or woman on the road makes a difference. We know factually speaking from the FBI and others, there are in fact many criminal organizations outside the United States that are heavily involved in this work. There are organizations inside the U.S. as well, but the numbers are staggering.”
Trucking leaders say data will drive sustainable freight
Executives from FedEx, J.B. Hunt, and NFI Industries said the trucking industry’s path to sustainability hinges on efficiency and data-driven reporting, as customers and regulators press for greater transparency.
Speaking at the “Driving Green with Data: Executive Insights on Sustainability and Reporting” panel on Thursday, FedEx Express executive Mickey Black highlighted the company’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2040.
“That commitment gave the entire organization a clear mandate,” Black said.
J.B. Hunt’s Jared Mounce outlined the carrier’s 32% greenhouse gas intensity reduction target by 2034, stressing that intensity goals better reflect efficiency as freight volumes grow.
NFI’s Alexa Branco emphasized the importance of tracking fuel consumption, idling, and emissions intensity to prove ROI and prepare for stricter reporting.
Panelists agreed shippers increasingly require emissions reporting in contracts, some now demanding lane- or package-level detail.
Sarah Booth, director, Sawatch Labs; Alexa Branco, director of sustainability, NFI Industries; Mickey Black, managing director global vehicles and surface fuel, FedEX; Jerrod Mounce, vice-president of energy & sustainability, J.B. Hunt at the WEX OTR Summit in San Antonio, Texas on Thursday.
* * * Meat Customers – reminder to order by midnight PST for Wednesday delivery
end
lots of fun on this one!
Treasury Plans To Mint $1 Coin With Trump On Both Sides
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 06:55 AM
The US Treasury is working on a $1 coin to celebrate next year’s 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. Rather than featuring George Washington, Thomas Jefferson or James Madison, the current draft has not one but two images of President Trump — in seeming violation of US law.
After drafts of the coin started circulating on social media, US Treasurer Brandon Beach confirmed their veracity. Writing on X, he said, “No fake news here. These first drafts honoring America’s 250th Birthday and and @POTUS are real.” The “heads” side has a profile of Trump’s face, while the “tails” side evokes the dramatic scene of Trump defiantly pumping his fist beneath an American flag moments after he was nearly assassinated on the campaign trail in July 2024. The image is accompanied by the words “FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT.”
The commemorative coin was authorized by the Circulating Collectible Coin Redesign Act of 2020. However, that law requires the coin to use “designs emblematic of the U.S. semiquincentennial.” That’s a subjective standard to be sure, but making Trump the sole focus of the coin seems like an enormous stretch.
However, there’s a more explicit legal hurdle standing in the way of this vanity project: An 1866 law stipulates that American currency and coins may only have portraits of dead people. That law was the subject of a web page at the Treasury site that’s been deleted. It’s still viewable via an archived version here — and reads:
“The Act was caused by an uproar over the actions of the Chief of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, Spencer Clark. Clark placed himself on a five cent note and had a large quantity of them printed before it was noticed. Due to Clark’s actions the already prepared 15 cent note featuring Sherman and Grant was never released.
Even if Trump were to die tomorrow, it would still be too soon to enable him to appear on the coin: The law bars depictions of of any deceased former President during the 2-year period following the date of the death of that President.”
Despite all that, there’s a precedent for a living president to be featured on a coin commemorating America’s founding: A half-dollar minted for the 1926 sesquicentennial featured an image of Washington and Calvin Coolidge next to each other and facing to the right.
“While a final $1 dollar coin design has not yet been selected to commemorate the United States’ semiquincentennial, this first draft reflects well the enduring spirit of our country and democracy, even in the face of immense obstacles,” a Treasury Department spokesperson told Politico in a statement.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 6, 2025 Issue 7591 | Independent View of the News |
| September S&P Global US Services PMI 54.2, 53.9 expected and prior September S&P Global US Composite PMI 53.9, 53.6 expected and prior September ISM Services Index 50, 51.7 expected, 52 prior Prices Paid 69.4, 68 expected, 69.2 prior New Orders 50.4, 54 expected, 56 prior Employment 47.2, 46.6 expected, 46.5 prior ESZs opened modestly lower on Thursday night and fell to a daily low of 6758.75 at 18:35 ET. An intractable rally took ESZs to 6784.25 at 1:45 ET. After a correction to 6776.75 at 2:03 ET, ESZs rallied nine handles by 3:06 ET, but settled into a 3-handle trading range until they broke higher at 5:36 ET. The breakout was modest and short lived; ESZs hit 6787.50 at 5:57 ET and reversed into plodding decline that took ESZs down to 6766.50 (-0.25) at 8:45 ET. A steep A-B-C rally developed; ESZs hit a daily high or 6795.50 (+28.75) at 10:37 ET. After 6 attempts to break higher failed, ESZs fell to 6786.00 at 11:40 ET on liquidation for the European close (and weekend). The post-European close contra move took ESZs to ‘the number’ 6800 at 12:17 ET. When it became clear that there was NOT enough mojo to push ESZs above ‘the number’ (6800), ESZs rolled over. When the afternoon arrived, ESZs tumbled. The decline was exacerbated by Dallas Fed President Logan who stated, “Stimulating demand when labor market is broadly in balance would add to price pressures without increasing employment… Right Now, the Fed is furthest away on inflation side of mandate… We really need to be cautious about further rate cuts… Policy is only modestly restrictive… ” ESZs hit a daily low of 6754.00 (-14.00) at 13:55 ET and rebounded to 6779.75 at 13:37 ET. Alas, too many traders are on the long side and the weekend beckoned. ESZs did a small 5-wave decline to 6760.50 at 15:59 ET. Near 12:45 ET, the DJIA was +518; the DJTGA was +222 and the NY Fang+ Index was +14.14. The valuation rotation occurred, again. Palantir Stock Falls (-5.78% at low) on Report Army Communications Network Flawed – BBG Apple removes ICE tracking apps from its online store over law enforcement safety concerns https://justthenews.com/nation/technology/apple-removes-ice-tracking-apps-its-store-over-law-enforcement-safety-concerns Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA rallied sharply on the valuation rotation. The S&P 500 Index hit a new high. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals rallied smartly; gold hit another new high USZs declined as much as 14/32 and were -12/32 at the NYSE close. Stocks tumbled after Dallas Fed Pres Logan’s very hawkish remarks. The NY Fang+ Index closed -89.81. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the BLS release the September Employment Report? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6724.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6750.87; 6705.67 @GOP: It’s right there on paper. Democrats are fighting for healthcare for illegal aliens, NOT the American people. https://x.com/GOP/status/1973800680055009462 @SpeakerJohnson: This isn’t a Republican talking point, or political spin…it’s what Democrats put IN WRITING: On page 57, section 2141, of their OWN bill, Democrats restore taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal immigrants. See for yourself: https://x.com/i_am_Paddy_Sham/status/1973832939856441791 @EricLDaugh: Left-wing federal bureaucrats are FURIOUS that the Trump administration set up an automated “out of office” message on their personal government emails BLAMING Democrats for the shutdown. One of them even tried to change it, but it was REVERTED. The message says, “Thank you for contacting me…Democratic senators are blocking passage of HR 5371, which has led to a lapse in appropriations.” “The email reminds those who reach out to DOE employees that we cannot respond because Senate Democrats are refusing [to] fund the government. Where’s the lie?” a spokesperson said. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1973903844187774980 Dems mocked after gov’t shutdown livestream gets only 400 viewers: ‘Party of 18% approval and sinking’ https://nypost.com/2025/10/02/us-news/democrats-mocked-after-government-shutdown-livestream-gets-few-viewers-party-of-18-approval-and-sinking/ @IngrahamAngle: We were told ObamaCare would make health ins. more “affordable.” One of the biggest lies ever told. It devastated healthcare, resulted in “rationed care,” forced doctors into retirement, and caused massive premium hikes. As the first government shutdown since 2019 begins, GOP leaders insist any talk of extending COVID-era enhanced subsidies for ObamaCare plans won’t happen until at least mid-November… Almost everyone who is enrolled in a plan on the ACA exchange is receiving a subsidy. More than 24 million Americans are enrolled in the insurance marketplace this year, and about 90 percent — more than 22 million people — are receiving enhanced subsidies… https://thehill.com/homenews/5529925-obamacare-premium-spikes-threat/ @RedWave_PressN: OMB Director Russell Vought announced that the administration has PAUSED $2.1 billion in Chicago infrastructure projects “to ensure funding is not flowing via race-based contracting.” Vought wrote on 𝕏: “$2.1 billion in Chicago infrastructure projects–specifically the Red Line Extension and the Red and Purple Modernization Project–have been put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing via race-based contracting.” @ProjectConstitu: Senate Erupts in Laughter at CHUCK SCHUMER As He Accuses Liberal NYT of ANTI-DEMOCRAT BIAS. LOL — that’s rich. Chuck Schumer stood on the Senate floor claiming The New York Times is biased against Democrats, and members of both parties busted out laughing… https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1973787256067350655 @EricLDaugh: Congressman Tim Burchett will now have NETFLIX executives testify to Congress about why they are pushing s*xualised transgender shows on young kids. “Let’s get on it. I’m going to follow up with my folks. They need to be brought in and we need to find out what their agenda is and why they are pushing this. Evil and demonic!” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1973782937616228460/video/1 Trump on Friday: “An Agreement must be reached with Hamas by Sunday Evening at SIX (6) P.M., Washington, D.C. time. Every Country has signed on! If this LAST CHANCE agreement is not reached, all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out against Hamas. THERE WILL BE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER…” Hamas says it accepts some elements of Gaza peace plan after Trump issues ultimatum But it said aspects of the proposal touching on the future of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian rights should be decided on the basis of a “unanimous Palestinian stance” reached with other factions and based on international law. The statement also made no mention of Hamas disarming, a key Israeli demand included in Trump’s proposal… https://www.npr.org/2025/10/03/g-s1-92007/hamas-gaza-peace-plan-israel-trump Israel agrees to ‘initial withdrawal line’ in Gaza, hostage release to begin when Hamas confirms deal: Trump https://t.co/xZ0iinlLoh Hamas official says group won’t disarm before Israeli occupation ends https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/hamas-official-says-group-wont-disarm-before-israeli-occupation-ends-93CH-4271194 Trump’s deadline has passed with no official Hamas acceptance. Hamas, like Putin, knows Trump frantically craves a Nobel Peace Prize; so, DJT can be ‘played.’ Japan’s ruling party elects Sanae Takaichi leader who is set to become first female prime minister https://justthenews.com/world/japans-ruling-party-elects-sanae-takaichi-leader-set-become-first-female-prime-minister Today – The usual suspects will play for the Monday Rally. This is why ESZs are +14.50; NQUs are +80.00; Dec AU is +23.20; and USZs are -14/32 at 20:10 ET. Also abetting the Sunday nigh rally: Japan’s Nikkei is up 3% after pro-stimulus politician Takaichi won the LDP Election. Gold Alert! Though gold rallied sharply and hit a new high on Friday, the gold miners ETF (GDX) fell 2 cents. GDX has rallied 51.4% since its 7/31/25 low (51.365) and hit 78.32 on Thursday. GDX has been leading gold since August 4, 2025. So, keep an eye on gold miners for signs of a reversal in gold! S&P Index 50-day MA: 6497; 100-day MA: 6288; 150-day MA: 6042; 200-day MA: 6031 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,336; 100-day MA: 44,268; 150-day MA: 43,189; 200-day MA: 43,306 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6715.79 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5627.36 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6421.22 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6640.14 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6710.78 triggers a sell signal WH Deputy CoS @StephenM: The issue before is now is very simple and clear. There is a large and growing movement of leftwing terrorism in this country. It is well organized and funded. And it is shielded by far-left Democrat judges, prosecutors and attorneys general. The only remedy is to use legitimate state power to dismantle terrorism and terror networks. ICE agents in Chicago surrounded by 10 vehicles in confrontation: report According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), one of the drivers in the circle of vehicles was armed with a semi-automatic weapon… DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said that ICE agents “were forced to deploy their weapons and fire defensive shots” against an individual identified as a U.S. citizen… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/ice-agents-surrounded-10-vehicles-chicago-report @FBIDDBongino: FBI assets have responded, and are investigating, the incident in Chicago… Feds shoot woman in Brighton Park (Chicago), top CPD exec orders cops to stay away Federal agents claimed the woman had been armed and was part of a caravan of vehicles attempting to obstruct ICE operations… the woman had been the subject of a recent Border Patrol bulletin “for doxing agents and posting online ‘Hey to all my gang let’s [expletive] those mother [expletive] up, don’t let them take anyone.’” McLaughlin said agents were “rammed by vehicles and boxed in by 10 cars,” forcing them to exit their vehicles. One driver who rammed an enforcement vehicle was allegedly armed with a semi-automatic weapon, she wrote, describing the gunfire as “defensive shots at an armed U.S. citizen.”… Officers were told via their in-car computers, “NO UNITS WILL RESPOND TO THIS,” an order attributed to CPD’s Chief of Patrol. Meanwhile, Gov. JB Pritzker said the U.S. Department of Defense had given him an ultimatum Saturday morning to activate National Guard troops or see President Donald Trump federalize them… https://cwbchicago.com/2025/10/feds-shoot-woman-in-brighton-park-top-cpd-exec-orders-cops-to-stay-away.html @ElectionWiz: National Fraternal Order of Police condemns Chicago Police commanders for prohibiting rank-and-file officers from aiding ICE agents surrounded by protesters. “…when an officer calls for assistance, you answer, no matter what.” https://x.com/ElectionWiz/status/1974966153924764107 @bennyjohnson: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem just announced the Department of War will deploy to Portland and Chicago within 24 hours to crush left-wing violence. She says she will make sure what happened to Independent Journalist Nick Sortor never happens again. “We’re sending in the Department of War. I sent a request to Secretary Hegseth. Will be rolling in in the next 24 hours. What we saw happen to that journalist, will not happen again.” “This country is a country of laws. If you don’t like the laws go change them. We are enforcing them…” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1974236916666061186 @ChiSpectator: ISP (IL State Police) is now assisting with the at times violent protest that have caused havoc in Broadview over the past two weeks.https://twitter.com/ChiSpectator/status/1974302682367344905?s=02 Kristi Noem slams Illinois officials after being ‘blocked’ from entering Chicago-area government building to use restroom https://t.co/uLMXCAiwEw Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Just spoke on the phone with (Ind Journalist) @nicksortor after he was released from custody. He tells me he’s been charged with disorderly conduct. I asked what happened? He says he was getting video of protesters getting maced by federal agents, which was embarrassing video for them as they were “crying” etc. He says they then swarmed/surrounded him, pushed him down into a flower bed, and someone threw a punch. Nick says he swung back and missed, then disengaged and walked over to a group of Portland PD. He says he was then shocked to be arrested by them, and he sat in the back of a police cruiser while officers figured out what to charge him with… @FoxNews @BillMelugin_: “What’s your message to Portland police and the city leaders of Portland after your arrest?” @nicksortor: “This is going to backfire on them tremendously.” “They take the side of the violent criminals that are here every single day assaulting ICE officers, assaulting journalists.” “They just proved the point that all of us have been saying.” https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1974127233229820250 @nicksortor: Attorney General Pam Bondi has ORDERED a full investigation, led by Asst. AG Harmeet Dhillon, of the Portland Police Bureau, following my wrongful arrest last night, Bondi confirmed to me. FAFO, @PortlandPolice. @AGPamBondi personally called me to deliver this news, and I’m incredibly grateful to her for doing so. The Trump DOJ WILL NOT allow Portland Police to continue to do the bidding of Antifa. @bennyjohnson: I just spoke with DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. She has been briefed on the attack and arrest of journalist Nick Sortor. Sec. Noem tells me DHS will surge ICE resources in Portland. “Antifa is a terrorist group and will NOT control our streets.” @nicksortor: President Trump has ordered Pete Hegseth to deploy active duty troops to liberate “war ravaged Portland” following the city’s targeted, politically-motivated arrest of me… https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1974164768337661982 The Portland Police Chief Who Apologized to Antifa Portland Police Chief Bob Day is the city’s worst police leader yet Since Antifa’s rise around 2016, Portland has burned through five police chiefs in nine years — each one failing in their own way… PPB hadn’t made a single arrest since June, even as nightly violence terrorized residents for months. Discovery evidence in a lawsuit by a nearby resident later showed that PPB officers were well aware Antifa had locked people inside the ICE facility and tried to burn it down — but the police argued, successfully, that they had no legal obligation to respond to that or to the loud noises amplified all night by the rioters… On Sept. 30, Daviscourt was bashed in the eye with a heavy pole by a masked rioter outside the ICE facility following months of threats. She begged a nearby PPB officer to act. He refused to detain or arrest the fleeing suspect, who calmly disappeared into an Antifa safehouse at 677 South Lowell St., Unit #152…. Bob Day… has enabled Antifa militants, apologized to armed extremists, gaslit the public, emphasized DEI in the police bureau and leads a department that refuses to protect citizens terrorized by Antifa… https://www.ngocomment.com/p/the-portland-police-chief-who-apologized The man that tried to assassinate SCOTUS Justice Kavanagh and his family – and reportedly wanted to kill 3 other SCOTUS so Biden could appoint liberals (and perhaps heeding Schumer’s call to ‘hit Kavanagh and Gorsuch so hard’) was sentenced to only 8 years (DoJ sought 30) by a Biden appointed judge who stated that because the man has transitioned to a women, the trans would-be-assassin should receive leniency! The DoJ is outraged and will appeal. @lukerosiak: The sentence also includes a lifetime of court supervision. “I am heartened that this terrible infraction has helped the Roske family… accept their daughter for who she is,” Judge Boardman said of the convict’s mom affirming his gender identity. @mrddmia: “The nominees also include Judge Deborah Boardman for the United States District Court for the District of Maryland. Boardman is described in a Federal Bar Association newsletter as being of Palestinian descent on her mother’s side.” https://t.co/UhPFAfHgQo FBI had three informants reporting Biden corruption in Ukraine, but no record of real investigation – More whistleblowers than previously known came forward alleging Biden family corruption in Ukraine. Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley wants to get to the bottom of why the FBI failed to fully investigate the allegations. https://justthenews.com/government/congress/fbi-had-three-source-reports-alleging-biden-corruption-ukraine-no-record-bureau SPLC helped train Biden’s DOJ prosecutors, had exclusive access to hate crimes data: bombshell record… to help draft talking points during President Joe Biden’s administration… On Friday, FBI Director Kash Patel announced that he had “terminated” all official ties to the SPLC… https://nypost.com/2025/10/03/us-news/splc-helped-train-doj-prosecutors-under-biden-had-exclusive-access-to-hate-crimes-data-bombshell-records-show/ Supreme Court rules Trump admin can end legal protections for Venezuelan migrants https://t.co/sPahQCWsXA Illegal migrant school chief’s sordid past revealed: Sex, lies and DEI payouts https://nypost.com/2025/10/02/us-news/illegal-migrant-school-chief-ian-andre-roberts-trail-of-lies-revealed/ @KatiePavlich: DHS just released more info on the Iowa school superintendent and illegal alien Ian Andre Roberts. He has a very long, violent criminal record, combined with immigration fraud. He also voted in elections. https://x.com/KatiePavlich/status/1974172399970168854 @Raindropsmedia1: Young men confronts viral Chicago “Loop Puncher” who stands at 6’7” & walks around knocking out people in Chicago arrested over 20 times, A mom of 11 Kathleen Miles was knocked out cold, Northwestern University employee punched near Union Station,: Elbowed a 15-year-old girl then whipped another woman while she walked & many more victims. https://x.com/Raindropsmedia1/status/1973911784240091612 Chief judge warns of random Loop attacks as accused man walks free under cashless bail system he supports. Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans, a leading supporter of Illinois’ cashless bail law, took the unusual step Thursday of warning court employees about two men accused in downtown “Loop Puncher” attacks—even as the bail system he helped create prevents one of those men from being detained… https://t.co/5yarUuEMQn Father of slain 6-year-old issues ominous threat to son’s killer who was freed early after serving just 8 years – Exantus, a former dialysis nurse, was sentenced to only 20 years in 2018 for assault charges because a jury found that he was not guilty of murder by reason of insanity, WLKY reported… (Insane and ‘they’ let him out after only 7 years?!?) https://t.co/IvYydtonCk Virginia AG candidate once referenced putting ‘two bullets to the head’ of GOP leader, texts show https://t.co/spfJAmuU80 @visegrad24: The Manchester synagogue terrorist Jihad al-Samie was out on bail for a rape charge when he killed 2 Jews @Ilegvm: All USAF female pilots who met the same aviation combat standards that men did. There is one Navy plane in this clip. As a female Veteran, I completely support @PeteHegseth new policies. (Navy pilot’s cool tumbling run before flight) https://x.com/Ilegvm/status/1974213719765709305 @LifeZette: Maine Resident Receives 250 Ballots in Amazon Delivery Before Voter ID Vote https://t.co/T3K1lW5rYG @TheCalvinCooli1: For the first time in 10 years, no September Hurricane made landfall on the continental U.S. https://t.co/DvAQEHeLRw Navy Meets Enlisted Sailor Recruiting Goal for 2nd Straight Year This included streamlining and speeding up the medical waiver process, as well as smaller problems like recruits who couldn’t sign their name because they couldn’t write in cursive… (Spending trillions on education and numerous US kids CANNOT WRITE CURSOVE!!!) https://news.usni.org/2025/10/01/navy-meets-enlisted-sailor-recruiting-goal-for-2nd-year | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Trump furuious with this!!
Portland Police Detain Journalist, Not Antifa Soldiers, Spurring White House Probe
Friday, Oct 03, 2025 – 05:40 PM
White House officials are alarmed by the arrest of conservative journalist Nick Sortor in Portland. Sortor was taken into custody late Thursday night while documenting Antifa terror cells creating chaos outside a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility.
The arrest occurred after the Portland Police Bureau reported that it was “monitoring the protest during the evening and observed some protest participants engaging in fights.” Sortor was charged with second-degree disorderly conduct.
“This was as big of a surprise to me as it was to everybody else. All of a sudden, you know, I’m being jumped by Antifa thugs,” Sortor told Fox News’ Bill Melugin following his release from jail. “I get back up, I stumble away and go back toward cops where I think, you know, at least, all right, well, maybe that’ll be a safer place for me to go… never suspected that I was going to be the target of the arrest, that they were coming in to me.”
“And when they put me into handcuffs, the first thing that went to my mind wasn’t, ‘Oh, you’re being arrested.’ It’s, ‘Oh, they’re trying to help you and get you out of here and make it look like they’re doing something.’ Because they weren’t telling me what they were doing. They weren’t telling me I was under arrest. They weren’t telling me what I was being charged with. And it took over an hour for me to find out what I was charged with,” Sortor continued.
The journalist said Antifa “threw multiple punches at me. They broke my camera by hitting that. So I was on the ground at that point. I tried to swing. I missed. I think I have every right to swing on somebody that has got me on the ground after punching me and after breaking my equipment.”
Yet, the Portland Police Bureau arrested the journalist, not the Antifa woke warriors who despise free speech, instead promote a communist-inspired agenda.
This troubling arrest prompted Attorney General Pam Bondi to begin an investigation into what Sortor called “my wrongful arrest last night.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Sortor’s arrest is very concerning.
“You PROVED what we’ve all been saying for years: you’re CORRUPT and CONTROLLED by vioIent Antifa thugs who terrorize the streets,” Sortor wrote on X.
Just remember why Democrats protect Antifa.
Leavitt hints at where Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought’s next cuts are likely to be made (here are the latest cuts).
And it begins.
x.com/nicksortor/status/1974176653808185546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1974176653808185546%7Ctwgr%5Efe6c50dab2c0c453ae33860af58a604e11d9e9d9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fportland-police-arrest-journalist-not-antifa-prompting-top-trump-officials-investigate
END
CHICAGO
Chicago Police Told Officers “No Units Will Respond” As Protesters “Surrounded” Federal Agents: Report
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 08:04 PM
Update (2004ET):
Fox News’ Bill Melugin reported that Border Patrol agents who were “surrounded” by protesters following a vehicle-ramming attack in the Chicago metro area yesterday had requested local police assistance, which was reportedly rejected by the top brass of the local police force. It remains unclear whether the rejection was due to a shortage of officers or a genuine refusal, given the hostility that the sanctuary city, controlled by radical leftists, has shown toward the Trump administration.
“Prigg v. Pennsylvania said states could decline to help federal law enforcement — not obstruct it. Today’s sanctuary jurisdictions have turned “non-cooperation” into active interference, allowing street militias to block ICE. It’s no longer federalism, It’s nullification,” Fox News’ Will Ricciardella wrote on X.
The National Fraternal Order of Police condemned the top leadership of the Chicago Police for prohibiting officers from assisting Border Patrol agents in an urgent time of need.
“Details are still emerging, but it appears that officers from the Chicago Police Department were ordered not to assist a group of ICE agents while they were physically threatened by what appeared to be an angry mob,” Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, wrote in a statement, adding, “Let me be clear, both the National FOP and the Illinois FOP believe that when an officer calls for assistance, you answer, no matter what.”
Listen.
Hostility from radical leftist Gov…
* * * Try Ultra Testosterone Booster
* * *
A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying roughly 200 Oregon National Guard troops to Portland, halting plans to protect federal assets and personnel amid Antifa-linked attacks on an ICE facility in the southern part of the metro area. Meanwhile, the White House is preparing to send up to 300 Guard troops to crime-ridden Chicago to combat left-wing agitators and assist federal efforts to deport criminal illegal aliens amid attacks over the weekend.
U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut stated on Saturday that there was “no evidence” that protests in the city amounted to a rebellion or significantly hindered law enforcement, and that the White House’s justification was “untethered to the facts,” according to Reuters. The injunction will remain in place until at least October 18, pending further litigation.
“The President’s determination was simply untethered to the facts,” Immergut wrote.
What are the facts, Immergut?
Here are some of the latest:
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Reuters, “President Trump exercised his lawful authority to protect federal assets and personnel in Portland following violent riots and attacks on law enforcement — we expect to be vindicated by a higher court.”
The White House filed a notice of appeal to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals late Saturday night.
Portland Mayor Keith Wilson told reporters that his city was peaceful and “this narrative was manufactured.”
Yet local police appear to be protecting domestic terrorists, such as Antifa warriors, while arresting journalists and conservatives:
What Democrats fear…
Oregon’s Democratic Attorney General Dan Rayfield filed the lawsuit after Trump announced plans to deploy troops to Portland to “protect federal immigration facilities from domestic terrorists.”
The state argued the action unlawfully seized control of its National Guard and violated the 10th Amendment, emphasizing that Portland’s protests have been peaceful. Immergut agreed that Oregon is likely to prevail, warning that Trump’s legal approach could allow a president to deploy troops “virtually anywhere at any time,” thereby undermining the separation of civil and military authority.
Meanwhile, leftist Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois on Saturday warned that President Trump was preparing to send 300 Guard troops to Chicago in the very near term.
And take a look at the chaos just yesterday in the crime-ridden sanctuary city…
“Law enforcement under siege in Chicago as agitators hurl rocks, bottles at federal vehicles departing violent protest near scene of apparent coordinated attack on ICE officers in Brighton Park earlier today,” Border Hawk wrote on X.
Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, wrote on X, “Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon. I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way. If you see a law enforcement officer today, thank them.”
Chaos.
Headlines:
.END
CRACKER BARREL
cracker barrel has had enough of wokeness:
(zerohedge)
Cracker Barrel Dumps Woke Agency Responsible For Logo Change Amid Exec Departure
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 11:33 PM
Cracker Barrel has fired the marketing agency responsible for its controversial woke logo design, which the company quickly backtracked on after public outcry.
In an Oct. 2 statement, the company said that it was ending its relationship with California-based strategic and creative growth consultancy, Prophet, which had advised them on brand refresh initiatives – including the recent logo and restaurant redesigns that did not go over well, to put it mildly.
The company also accepted the resignation of SVP Laura Daily, who had been with the company since 2012.
“We are grateful to Laura for her leadership, including being a driving force behind the growth of our retail business during her tenure, and thank Cammie for the meaningful contributions and impact she made through her nearly a decade at the Company,” said CEO Julie Masino.
Masino – who gets to keep her job, announced the new logo on Aug. 19. The following day the company’s market cap crashed by nearly $100 million. One week later, Cracker Barrel announced that it would return to the old logo.
“We thank our guests for sharing your voices and love for Cracker Barrel. We said we would listen, and we have. Our new logo is going away, and our ‘Old Timer’ will remain,” the company said in a statement.
Other corporate shuffling includes the promotion of Doug Hisel – previously vice president (VP) of field operations, who is now the senior vice president (SVP) of store operations. He has been with the company for 18 years.
Meanwhile, former employee Thomas Yun is rejoining the company as vice president for menu strategy and innovation.
“These changes to our organizational structure, along with new leadership appointments and promotions, mark a strategic step forward as we sharpen our focus on consistently craveable food and warm country hospitality,” said Masino. “This transition reduces layers in the organization as we bring a hyperfocus on ensuring both every plate served and every interaction with our guests reflects the care and quality we stand for.”
As the Epoch Times notes further, President Donald Trump had also called on Cracker Barrel to give up its new redesign. Trump welcomed the switchback in an Aug. 27 Truth Social post.
“Congratulations, Cracker Barrel, on changing your logo back to what it was,” he wrote. “All of your fans very much appreciate it. Good luck into the future. Make lots of money and, most importantly, make your customers happy again!”
Cracker Barrel announced its full fiscal year 2025 financial results on Sept. 17.
The company reported $3.48 billion in revenues for the year, up 0.4 percent from the previous fiscal year. Net income was up 13.3 percent, while earnings per share jumped 12.6 percent.
“Many elements of our plan are working well and delivering results, as evidenced by five consecutive quarters of comparable store restaurant sales increases and 9 percent adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025,” Masino said. EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
“Looking ahead, there is much to be optimistic about, and our teams are focused on getting back to the momentum we created last fiscal year.”
For fiscal year 2026, the company is expecting revenues in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion. It projects opening two new Cracker Barrel stores and shutting down 14 Maple Street units. Cracker Barrel acquired biscuit company Maple Street in 2019.
end
OREGON/CALIFORNIA/NATIONAL GUARD
Newsom Says Trump Is Sending 300 California National Guardsmen to Oregon
Sunday, Oct 05, 2025 – 10:51 PM
Submitted by Jacob Burg of Epoch Times
President Donald Trump is sending 300 members of the California National Guard to Oregon after a judge temporarily blocked him from deploying the Beaver State’s guard to Portland, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Oct. 5.
Newsom vowed to fight the move in court.
The White House on Oct. 5 did not immediately confirm the deployment. The California National Guard referred questions to the Department of War. A War Department spokesperson declined to comment.
In a statement posted to his website, Newsom called Trump’s mobilization of hundreds of California National Guardsmen to Oregon a “breathtaking abuse of the law and power.”
“The Trump Administration is unapologetically attacking the rule of law itself and putting into action their dangerous words—ignoring court orders and treating judges, even those appointed by the President himself, as political opponents,” Newsom said.
“The commander-in-chief is using the U.S. military as a political weapon against American citizens. We will take this fight to court, but the public cannot stay silent in the face of such reckless and authoritarian conduct by the President of the United States.”
Months ago, Trump federalized California’s National Guard over Newsom’s objection following protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
A federal judge on Oct. 4 temporarily blocked Trump from deploying the Oregon National Guard to Portland in response to violent protests targeting immigration officers.
“This country has a longstanding and foundational tradition of resistance to government overreach, especially in the form of military intrusion into civil affairs,” Judge Karin J. Immergut, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, wrote in her order.
“This historical tradition boils down to a simple proposition: this is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law. Defendants have made a range of arguments that, if accepted, risk blurring the line between civil and military federal power—to the detriment of this nation.”
U.S. District Judge Michael Simon recused himself from the case when the Department of Justice filed papers with the court accusing Simon’s wife, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), of publicly criticizing Trump’s plan.
Immergut was randomly assigned to the case after the recusal, a court clerk told Simon.
National Guard in Portland, Chicago
Portland’s ICE building has been the scene of nightly protests, and Trump described Portland as a “war zone” rife with crime and unrest. Trump also called Chicago a “war zone.”
Trump ultimately authorized the deployment of 300 Illinois National Guard troops on Oct. 4 to protect federal agents and assets in Chicago.
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the deployment in a statement to The Epoch Times.
“Amidst ongoing violent riots and lawlessness, that local leaders like Pritzker have refused to step in to quell, President Trump has authorized 300 national guardsmen to protect federal officers and assets,” she said. “President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities.”
Pritzker accused the Trump administration of attempting to escalate tensions amid ongoing clashes between protesters and federal officers in the Chicago area.
“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will,” Pritzker wrote in an Oct. 4 statement. “They will pull hardworking Americans out of their regular jobs and away from their families all to participate in a manufactured performance—not a serious effort to protect public safety.”
END
MOVIE ACTORS/ACTRESSES/JANE FONDA
Hollywood Actors Bring Back Soviet Era “Committee For The First Amendment”
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 01:15 PM
A group of 550 Hollywood celebrities led by Jane Fonda (Hanoi Jane) have announced – after a decade canceling conservatives within their industry – that they are resurrecting a Soviet era celebrity organization called the “Committee for the First Amendment” to “defend the constitutional rights” of actors and public figures from the entertainment industry.
Laughs in Gina Carino and James Woods…
The announcement was partially inspired by the short-lived cancellation of the Jimmy Kimmel Live! show, after Kimmel spread false information on Charlie Kirk assassination suspect Tyler Robinson. Kimmel seemed to assert that Robinson was MAGA, a lie which was being spread widely on social media by the political left in order to deflect from clear evidence that Robinson is an LGBT leftist and Antifa sympathizer.
Democrats asserted that Kimmel was being “silenced” by the Trump Administration, a violation of his First Amendment rights. However, the cancellation had nothing to do with Trump. When affiliates Nexstar and Sinclair threatened to drop Kimmel’s broadcasts, ABC brought the late night show to a halt. Compare this to censorship during the Biden era, when Democrat leaders directly pressured social media companies to silence conservatives.
Juxtapose this flowery sentiment of peace with Jane Fonda’s previous hot takes on conservatives. The real communist revolutionary mind rises to the surface in unguarded moments:
Kimmel’s show returned after one week due to pressure from Democrats. Democrat leaders are comparing the event to the “Red Scare” of the McCarthy Era, suggesting that Trump and Republicans are trying to shut down free speech. To be clear, Kimmel was never censored by the government and no one has a constitutional right to a late night talk show. Fonda argues:
“The federal government is once again engaged in a coordinated campaign to silence critics in the government, the media, the judiciary, academia, and the entertainment industry.”
In a letter published by the committee, they argue that the McCarthy era has returned:
“This Committee was initially created during the McCarthy Era, a dark time when the federal government repressed and persecuted American citizens for their political beliefs. They targeted elected officials, government employees, academics, and artists. They were blacklisted, harassed, silenced, and even imprisoned. The McCarthy Era ended when Americans from across the political spectrum finally came together and stood up for the principles in the Constitution against the forces of repression.”
“Those forces have returned. And it is our turn to stand together in defense of our constitutional rights…”
What Jane Fonda and friends don’t mention is that the Hollywood actors were rightly persecuted for their political beliefs. Most of the people accused of being communist sympathizers were, in fact, communists working to further the dismantling of the western world.
Young Americans today are thoroughly indoctrinated by public schools, colleges and the media to believe that the “Red Scare” of the McCarthy Era was a witch hunt built on hysteria and paranoia. Joseph McCarthy is often portrayed as a lunatic and a fear monger who used the “communist bogeyman” as a way to grow government power and silence detractors.
As future declassified documents would eventually prove, nothing could be further from the truth.
Senator McCarthy was right and his accusations were largely accurate – Communist funded groups and subversive agents had infiltrated almost every aspect of American society from entertainment to education to industry. The revelation was so shocking that it was ultimately covered up for decades and McCarthy became a pariah instead of a hero.
In the 1990s, documents finally released through the Freedom of Information Act revealed Project Verona, a secret program launched in 1943 which eventually led to the breaking of Soviet encryption methods. The information gathered from the communist regime was extensive and uncovered vast networks of Soviet spies and sympathizers working against the west.
Though McCarthy did not have direct access to Verona, he operated on intel from Verona through FBI briefings, which most Americans at the time were not privy to. In other words, he saw the evidence that average Americans did not get to see. To this day, leftist journalists and academics continue to lie about McCarthy, claiming that the Verona papers “don’t vindicate his legacy” or his efforts to stop communist infiltration.
The most widely publicized aspects of the Red Scare involved Hollywood and the subversion of American media. As we have seen in recent years, there is undeniable Marxist control over the majority of US entertainment. If it was hidden before, it certainly isn’t hidden now.
Jane Fonda’s father, Henry Fonda, formed the original Committee for the First Amendment to protect the “Hollywood Ten”, a group of highly influential celebrities, writers, directors and producers who were accused of being members of the communist party and receiving funding from the Soviet Union. As it turned out, eight of the ten people were confirmed communist party members. The other two are less definitive but still suspected.
The CPUSA received extensive funding from the Soviet Union and these Hollywood notables were members of the CPUSA. By extension, the Committee for the First Amendment included the Hollywood Ten in their membership. After the group was unmasked, actors like Humphrey Bogart who initially defended them decided to disavow them. The committee lasted only 6 months.
The new committee is a different animal in that it is openly woke (communist), but designed to fear monger over censorship that doesn’t exist. Its goal appears to be the protection of purveyors of far-left propaganda from valid scrutiny. One might wonder if the US could have avoided the mess it is in today if only people had listened to McCarthy decades ago?
END
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING HAJNEN PAYSON
AI Revolution — Job Killing & Life Changing – Hajnen Payson
By Greg Hunter On October 4, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis26 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Hajnen Payson is a highly valued internet search and marketing expert. He’s worked for companies such as Experian, UFC, LifeLock/Norton, international banks and big companies that hold government contracts that require top security clearances. Governments and companies around the world are rushing into Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some big names are hiring Payson to navigate the pathway to incorporate AI into just about everything you see, touch and feel. Payson explains, “This, right now, is the very beginning of the AI Revolution. I work with industry peers, executives and marketing experts daily. Half believe that AI integration was not as bad and won’t be as bad going forward because this year was not a disaster. However, the other half believe it was a disaster because they experienced department cuts and hiring freezes all due to AI. In fact, I have a good friend where her son was denied work as an intern this summer before college because AI took the job.”
Payson goes on to say, “If we look at this and say what should younger people do? There is no easy answer here. We are at the very beginning of the AI Revolution, and that is exactly what this is. This is no different than the Industrial Revolution. This is going to be a time where we are changing. This is just like Google revolutionized what happened in search . . . AI is going to revolutionize everything. The difference is there will be no sector, no category that will not be touched by AI. . . . For decades, businesses cut cost by offshoring and outsourcing . . .. In both cases, people still did the jobs. This time is different. AI does not hand the work to another human. It deletes the need for humans in entire categories of work. This shift will be bigger, faster and more permanent than all waves combined.”
Payson brought some real-world sources to back up what he is finding. Payson says, “The International Monetary Fund says 40% of jobs globally are exposed to AI. In advanced economies like the United States, 60% with some jobs being replaced or complemented. . .. The World Economic Forum forecasted by 2030 AI and other tech will displace 92 million jobs . . . Even the US Treasury Department released a report that says 25% of US workers will fall into highly exposed job categories.”
In closing, Payson says, “Geoffrey Hinton is considered the grandfather of AI, and he is also a Nobel Prize winner in physics. He resigned from Google in 2023 so he could speak freely about AI, which he could not do while working for Google. He compares the dangers of AI to nuclear weapons. . . . Sam Altman is the cofounder of Open AI, and he said that AI could cause lights out for all of us.”
Maybe this is why Jesus said, “There would be no flesh left unless the days were shortened. So, for the sake of the elect, the days shall be shortened.”
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on One with search and marketing strategist Hajnen Payson of DriveGrowthHQ.com with a new newsletter giving you a free deep dive on the AI Revolution that is just getting started.
(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)
After the Interview:
Payson’s free website is called DriveGrowthHQ.com.
He also has a free newsletter you can sign up for with no strings attached. If someone enters their email on the homepage, they will receive a confirmation email. Once you confirm it, you will be taken to the resource page to view all current reports. You can unsubscribe at any time, and your information will not be sold or used except to send you the free newsletter.
HUMOUR FOR TODAY:
COURTESY OF ROBERT H
New York satire
https://youtu.be/9upPP1nEjn8?si=oa_TpqkkpUsbgg9y
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
