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118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 135
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 163
323 C HSBC 195
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 91
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 959
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 15 1055
685 C RJ OBRIEN 38
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 39
905 C ADM 12 3
991 H CME 17
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 1131 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 113,100 OZ or 3.5178 TONNES
total notices so far: 31,764 contracts for 3,176,400 OR 98.799 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 39 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.195 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2913 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 14.565 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 13.240 MILLION OZ PLUS 175,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP EQUATES TO 15.020 MILLION OZ//(
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 21.375 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 15.020 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH AN INITIAL HUGE 4.878 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY LAST 2 DAYS OF QUEUE JUMPS OF 4.5934 TONNES,(TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP = 3.623 TONNES) PLUS 8.2426 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 108.5723 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 53.378 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1402 CONTRACTS OI TO 165.859 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1840 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 760 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 875 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1271 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE MONSTER 1840 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 438 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.63 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.190 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.63 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 6.12 PTS OR 0.01% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.28%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1438/ Oil DOWN TO 61.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.34 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN HOLIDAY IN TRADING AT XXXX AND XXXX//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1435 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4147 CONTRACTS TO 483,672 OI WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $68.70 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1510). WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 5657 CONTRACTS (OR 17.575 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED A ZERO CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0.00 TONNES OF GOLD.
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED REMAIN AT 8.2426 TONNES OF GOLD FOOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.\
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 4 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES: TOTAL ISSUANCES 4 TIMES FOR 2650 CONTRACTS OR 26500 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 4 OCCASIONS: 8.2426 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 126.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 118.5 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,643 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER/OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1603 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN LAST NIGHT DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY/RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE (MARCHING TO WILLIAM TELL’S OVERTURE) WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED LAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCT 1 AND OCT 2 AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSSES IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4. THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 4 ISSUANCES IS 2650 CONTRACTS FOR 26500 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING: 108/5723 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 242 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 7, 3.623 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO OUR INITIAL 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK. THIS WAS FOLLOWED ON OCT 2 , OCT 3, OCT 4 FOR 2150 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK//215,000 OZ//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 OCCASIONS IS 2,650 CONTRACTS FOR 265,000 OZ OR 8.2426 TONNES.!
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT: 8.2426 TONNES
D) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
E) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
F) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
EQUALS
108.5723 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 1510 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1510 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1510 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1510 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE OCC HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! TODAY OCT 7 WE WITNESS A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1603 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING MASSIVE LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 4 ISSUANCES FOR 8.2436 TONNES
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 3.623 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 4 ISSUANCES OF 8.2426 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH IS 108.5723 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $68.70./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION) /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK ON THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TODAY TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE.
SATURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 17.575 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 3.623 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 8.2426 TONNES EX FOR RISK/4 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 108.5723 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $68.70
WE HAD A HUGE 986 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5657 CONTRACTS OR 565,700 0Z (17.595TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 7 /2025
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) Out of Loomis: 48,226.500 oz (2545 kilobars) ii) Out of Malca: 49,930.503 oz (1553 kilobars) iii) Out of Manfra 44,947.098 oz (1398 kilobars) total withdrawal 143,104.1012 oz or 4.451 tonnes of gold . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 2 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks customer account: 81,824.295oz (2545 KILOBARS) ii) Into Loomis: 48,226.500 (1500 kilobars) total deposit 130,050.795 OZ in tonnes: 4,045 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1131 notice(s) 113,100 OZ 3.5178 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 492 contracts 49,200OZ 1.530 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 31,764 notices 3,176,400 oz 98.799 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
total deposit dealer: nil oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks customer account: 81,824.295oz (2545 KILOBARS)
ii) Into Loomis: 48,226.500 (1500 kilobars)
total deposit 130,050.795 OZ
in tonnes: 4,045 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
3 entries
i) Out of Loomis: 48,226.500 oz (2545 kilobars)
ii) Out of Malca: 49,930.503 oz (1553 kilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra 44,947.098 oz (1398 kilobars)
total withdrawal 143,104.1012 oz
or 4.451 tonnes of gold
ADJUSTMENTs 4
2 dealer to customer
i)Asahi 20,278.939 oz
ii) JPMorgan: 13,692.774 oz
last two customer to dealer:
c) Brinks 177,289.405 oz
d) Loomis 180,270.657 oz
volume at the comex: Monday: 295,216 oz (good)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 1623 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 980 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 185 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 1,165 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 116,500 OZ OR 3.623 TONNES OF GOLD. THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 100.3297 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES A PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMP) PLUS OUR 8.2426 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 108.5723 TONNES
NOVEMBER GAINED 91 CONTRACTS UP TO 4552 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER GAINED 1437 CONTRACTS UP TO 391,376 CONTRACTS.
We had 1131 contracts filed for today representing 113,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 15 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1131 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 1055 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (31,764 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 1623 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1131 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,225,600 OZ OR 100.3297 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 ISSUANCES OF 8.2426 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 108.5723 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (31,764 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (1623 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1131 x 100 oz) which equals 3,225,600 OZ OR 100.3297 TONNES + 8.2426 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER: 108.5723 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 108.5723 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,958,564.190 oz 60.888 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 40,1944,494.314 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,795,091.673 or 667.85 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,379,402.637 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,983,652oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 616.999 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 7 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries 2 entries a) Out of Brinks 379,298.630 oz b) Out of Loomis 601,016.340 oz total withdrawal: 980,315.870 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Asahi 379,299.630 oz total deposit; 379,299.630 oz oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 39 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.195 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 101 contracts (0.505 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2913 Contracts (14.565 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
i) Into Asahi 379,299.630 oz
total deposit: 379,299.630 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
a) Out of Brinks 379,298.630 oz
b) Out of Loomis 601,016.340 oz
total withdrawal: 980,315.870 oz
adjustments: 3 all dealer to customer
a) Brinks 361,763.780 oz
b) JPMorgan: 367,118.200 oz
c) Out of Loomis: 92,818.620 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 188.874 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 530.331 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 130 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 20 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 55 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 35 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 175,000 OZ.
STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 15.020 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER LOST 4 CONTRACTS UP TO 2504
DECEMBER LOST 1979 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 130,757
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 39 or 195,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 90,955 huge//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2913 X5,000 oz = 14.565 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (130) AND the number of notices served upon today (39 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (2913) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(130) minus number of notices served upon today (39)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 15.020 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 15.020 million oz which is HUGE for this NON active delivery month of OCT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 188.874 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 210.514/530.331million. 39.70`%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1013.17 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.262 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
Recession Watch: How Is This Economy Still Growing?
Answer: It isn’t
| John RubinoOct 7 |
The stock market is a pretty good barometer of economic health…except when it’s contradicted by employment. Currently, even profitable companies aren’t hiring:
When job openings dry up, the unemployed stay that way for longer:
Government hiring usually counteracts weakness in the private sector. But not this time:
The longer someone is unemployed, the harder it is to manage their debts:
Including their mortgages:
The further down one is on the economic ladder, the harder the hit:
McDonald’s CEO says lower-income customers are skipping breakfast
(MSN) – In an interview with CNBC on September 3, Kempczinski highlighted that traffic for lower-income customers is “down double digits.”
“And it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal — so we’re seeing breakfast, people are actually skipping breakfast — or they’re choosing to just eat at home.”
Delaying the Inevitable
So why isn’t the US already in a deep recession? Because governments are borrowing record amounts of money and spending it on social programs, weapons procurement, and infrastructure. This keeps people spending, but at the cost of soaring debt:
Why can’t governments just keep doing this? Because the bond markets won’t let them. Below are the 10-year government bond yields for Japan and France. Note that while their debt is soaring, their interest costs are rising even faster as bond investors demand higher yields.
This, in short, is a classic setup for a financial death spiral.
end
JAMES RICKARDS
GOLDMAN SACHS HEADLINE;
Goldman Hikes Gold Forecast To $4,900 As Ken Griffin Worries About “Substantial De-Dollarization”
Gold futures (Dec) topped $4,000 for the first time this morning (though spot prices not quite there yet)…
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
Mike Maharrey: Who in his right mind would hold dollars now?
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-10-06 11:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, October 6, 2025
Nobody in their right mind would hold their reserves in dollars.
That’s the conclusion of Catalyst Funds CIO David Miller. And he’s right.
Gold is up over 87% since January 2024 and is knocking on the door of $4,000 an ounce. But even with the rapid price surge, Miller said gold is not overpriced.
The appreciation of gold is the flip side of the dollar’s depreciation. In other words, gold is tracking inflation. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
END
Byron King: The New York Times has missed the silver and gold story
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-10-07 11:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Byron King
Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Tuesday, October 7, 2025
I read the New York Times — but only so that you don’t have to. Often as not, it’s painful to peruse the raw sophistry and unreflective bias in many of the news articles, let alone the poison-pen editorial page, but still I power through.
Fortunately, though, the world offers many other news sources which help me figure out what’s happening across the globe
And much is happening. So much, in fact, that I’m not entirely sure where to begin. And when I’m not sure how to approach a vast mix of events, my default position is to begin with a look at the price of silver and gold, which together tend to distill quite a few earthly matters into a couple of easily understandable numbers. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
END
Craig Hemke: Gold and silver shortages are exploding
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-10-04 20:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
As September 2025 came to a close, gold closed up 11% for the month, pushing well into all-time high territory. In this month-end wrap-up, market analyst and mining executive David Jensen offered a stark and data-rich breakdown of the underlying dynamics fueling this rally.
While many market watchers cheer rising prices, Jensen’s analysis paints a deeper, more structural concern.
“We’ve got price backwardation where the spot price is higher than the futures price all the way out to 12 months,” Jensen explained, signaling an intense demand for physical metal in the here and now — demand that outpaces supply by a wide margin.
Beyond the headlines and price charts, Jensen emphasized that the physical precious metals markets, especially gold and silver, are in deep distress, mainly due to the fractional-reserve-style paper trading systems in places like London.
“This market is dominated with price setting in the UK and in London. … You don’t have to have the metal to sell immediate ownership of metal,” he said, revealing the core of the issue: Promissory notes are outstripping physical inventory. With lease rates now exceeding 5% and backlogs building, the system is under growing pressure. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS 243/
5. COMMODITY REPORT SILVER
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 6.12 PTS OR 0.01% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.28%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED XXXX OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1438/ Oil DOWN TO 61.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.34 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING :/ONSHORE YUAN HOLIDAY IN TRADING AT XXXX AND XXXX//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1435 AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED HOLIDAY
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1435
HANG SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
2. Nikkei closed UP 6.12 PTS OR 0.01%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.12 EURO FALLS TO 1.1669 DOWN 40 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.6710//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.77…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.275 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.7353// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.596 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.278
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.434
3j Gold at $3954.75 Silver at: 48.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 23 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.76
3m oil (WTI) into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.07/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.671% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.275 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7976 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9308 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.175 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.767 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.599 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.70 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7520 UP 2 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.576 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.222 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.754 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat As AI Bubble Euphoria Takes A Break
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 08:36 AM
Futures are flat after the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all made new ATHs yesterday, driven by the AI theme and a broad-based rally. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are unchanged while Nasdaq futures eke out a 0.1% gain as trader keep an eye on TSLA’s new car announcement with Mag7 names mixed pre-mkt but Semis seeing a bid led by AMD (+3.6%), MU (+2%). Bond yields are higher while the USD gained for a second day as President Trump sent mixed messages about the state of talks with Democrats on their biggest demand to end the shutdown; the stronger dollar may pressure international/ADR plays today according to JPM. There are four Fed speakers today and a 3Y bond auction with the shutdown pausing official data.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla -0.6%, Nvidia +0.3%, Alphabet -0.5%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Amazon +0.1%, Meta Platforms +0.2%).
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises 3%, set to extend Monday’s rally, as Jefferies upgrades to buy following the chipmaker’s deal with OpenAI.
- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) falls 21% after the maker of semiconductor equipment posted fiscal first-quarter revenue that fell from the year-ago period.
- Amkor (AMKR) is up 10% after the company broke ground on an outsourced semiconductor advanced packaging and test campus in Arizona.
- Constellation Brands (STZ) is up 3% after the owner of the Corona and Modelo Especial brands in the US reported comparable earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Ford (F) slips 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company faces months of disruptions to its business after a major fire at an aluminum plant in New York.
- IBM (IBM) rises 4% after the technology firm said it will integrate Anthropic’s Claude family of large language models into its software portfolio.
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, climbs 3% amid plans to invest $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform.
- Trilogy Metals (TMQ) gains 220% as the White House said US will take a 10% stake in the small-cap mineral exploration company.
In corporate news, Tesla is said to plan unveiling a cheaper version of the Model Y today. Ford faces months of disruptions to its business after a major fire at an aluminum plant in New York, the WSJ reported. Elon Musk named a former Morgan Stanley executive as the CFO of xAI, the FT reported.
After hitting yet another AI-driven record high, stocks are seeing some fatigue as the rally runs on fumes. It’s hardly surprising, after the latest meltup, as traders contemplate the government shutdown stretching into a second week, political shocks overseas and the latest tariffs. Even tech might struggle, with Citi strategists cautioning that investors may want to cash in.
The market’s latest winning streak has been fueled by AI euphoria and optimism about earnings, but those drivers could reach a limit. “Profit-taking risks have rapidly risen across markets, and are particularly elevated for Nasdaq, potentially hampering further upside,” according to Citi’s Chris Montagu. Meanwhile, AI valuations are nearing extremes, with the SOX Index’s forward P/E ratio approaching three standard deviations above the 15-year average. Still, tech news keeps coming, and it seems like anything OpenAI touches turns to gold.
Monday’s AMD deal was the latest big-budget data center agreement this year. It follows last month’s announcement that Nvidia Corp. was planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI amid demand for tools like ChatGPT and the computing power needed to make them run. Tech firms are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on advanced chips and data centers, and the final bill may run into the trillions. The financing is coming from venture capital, debt and, lately, some more unconventional arrangements that have raised eyebrows on Wall Street.
While equities worldwide have surged to successive record highs, worries over the US government stalemate and the political crisis in France have driven investors toward alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin, sending both to new peaks in what has been dubbed the “debasement trade.” At the same time, a flurry of AI-related deals among chipmakers has propelled shares higher and fueled some concerns of a speculative bubble reminiscent of the late-1990s dot-com era.
“Enthusiasm for stocks is starting to wane after another record-breaking start to the week for Wall Street,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB Ltd. That keeps the debasement trade in play, she said. “As global political risks rise, this is continuing to drive demand, and we think that the early morning pullback in the gold price is likely to be used as a buying opportunity.”
In political news, the government shutdown extends into a 7th day and Trump said he would negotiate with Democrats over health care subsidies, a move that could open the door to resolving the shutdown. Carlyle Group is releasing its own estimates of US data to fill the void. The investment manager estimates that just 17,000 jobs were created in September, among the weakest results since the US economy emerged from the 2020 recession.
Meanwhile, Citadel’s Ken Griffin warned that investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar, a development that the billionaire investor called “really concerning.”
Not everyone is concerned about the AI bubble however: there are the usual commission-based traders whose paycheck depends on a continuation of the status quo, like Pepperstone’s Michael Brown. The Mag 7 group of tech giants that have powered the bulk of the S&P 500 rally in recent years are trading at valuations in line with their five-ear averages, he said.
“If you’re now about to tell me that they’ve been expensive for five years, well those seven stocks have delivered a total return of >300% in that period of time, and look set to rally even further in the coming months,” Brown said. “In fact, the path of least resistance for the market at large continues to lead to the upside, as earnings growth remains strong, the underlying economy remains resilient, and as the monetary policy backdrop becomes increasingly loose.”
Elsewhere, Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark edged higher. France’s CAC 40 reversed an early decline as President Emmanuel Macron made a last-ditch effort to salvage the government after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation on Monday. Truckmakers including Volvo AB and Daimler Truck Holding AG fell after US President Donald Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy-duty trucks would begin next month. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Kering shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest since July 2024, after the Gucci owner was named the top pick among luxury stocks at Morgan Stanley and upgraded to overweight alongside LVMH
- NKT jumps to a record high after Jefferies raises its recommendation on the Danish energy transmission firm to buy, predicting strong expansion in high voltage capacity. French peer Nexans slips as much as 5.1%, on cut to hold
- Shell shares rise as much as 2.3%, the most since July. The company gave an October trading update that analysts saw as upbeat, forecasting higher 3Q integrated gas production and upstream volumes
- Ambu gains as much as 4.9% after Bernstein raised the recommendation to outperform from market perform, citing the medical device firm’s unique growth profile and strong market position
- Skanska shares rise as much as 5%, the most since April 10, after Jefferies upgraded the Swedish construction group to buy from hold, saying growing momentum in end markets like commercial property is underappreciated
- CVS Group shares rise as much as 10%, to the highest since March 2024, after the UK veterinary service and animal medicines company reported full-year results. Analysts were cheered by a year-on-year improvement in margins
- Imperial Brands shares rise as much as 3.7%, rebounding from a two-month low, after the tobacco company said it will increase its share buyback in FY26. RBC Capital Markets also sees scope for small upgrades to consensus
- Rentokil gains as much as 4.6% after Bernstein double-upgrades to outperform and installs a new Street-high 570p price target, saying the pest controller has a path toward stronger organic growth
- TomTom gains as much as 6.6%, the most in a month, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the Dutch mapping and navigation company to buy on improving near-term free cash flow and attractive long-term prospects
- B&M European Value Retail shares drop as much as 22%, marking a record drop that has sent shares to an all-time low. CEO Tjeerd Jegen warned operational execution has been “weak” and weighed on first-half performance
- Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 2.8%, to the lowest level in nearly a month as analysts came away from a conference call expecting a slow 3Q. Deutsche Bank analysts say the firm’s quarterly results are likely to fall short
- HelloFresh shares drop as much as 7.1%, slipping to their lowest level in almost a month, after the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service issued a public health alert concerning ready-to-eat meals sold by the company
- Liontrust drops as much as 6.7% after reporting net outflows and a drop in assets under management in the second quarter. RBC said there has been a reversal in progress following two consecutive quarters in net flows
Asian shares traded steady after a six-day rally, as Japanese markets failed to hold initial gains amid an indecisive mood across global peers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.4% before giving up the advance to trade little changed. Tech-heavy Taiwan shares were among key gainers, while stocks in Singapore and India also gained. Japanese shares ended flat. Markets in China, Hong Kong and South Korea remained closed for holidays. Australian stocks fell, bucking the broader region’s advance. A financial regulator approved Cboe Global Markets’ application to conduct local stock listings, spurring a decline in shares of the nation’s main exchange operator ASX Ltd. Stocks in India rallied for fourth straight session as the central bank’s recent credit easing measure boost local lenders.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% and stronger against most G-10 currencies, New Zealand dollar lags as investors ramp up bets on cuts by the central bank, which announces its latest decision on Wednesday.
In rates, treasury yields continue to grind higher led by long-end tenors, extending Monday’s curve-steepening selloff. Bunds underperform along with French bonds, which extend declines as President Macron seeks last-ditch talks to avoid a government collapse, giving outgoing Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu 48 hours to negotiate. US yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s curves steeper by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.17% is up about 2bp vs Monday’s close with Germany’s cheaper by an additional basis point. Treasury auction cycle begins at 1pm New York time with $58 billion 3-year new issue, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, first of this week’s three coupon sales, and several Fed speakers.
In commodities, gold swooned after hitting another record, but recovers to trade little changed at $3,959/oz. Oil prices falling, with Brent trading around $65.20/barrel.
The US economic calendar — still subject to delays from the ongoing government shutdown — includes August trade balance (8:30am), New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (10am), Bowman (10:50am), Miran (10:30am, 4:05pm) and Kashkari (11:30am).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
- VIX +0.2 points at 16.55
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1207.19
- euro -0.4% at $1.1665
- WTI crude -0.6% at $61.34/barrel
Top Overnight News
- The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter. RTRS
- In the midst of the shutdown, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Monday there are no pending bipartisan talks over expiring health insurance subsidies despite a claim from President Donald Trump. Politico
- US White House memo says furloughed federal workers are not entitled to back pay for the time that is taken off during the government shutdown: Axios.
- A paycheck scheduled on Oct. 15 for the 1.3 million members in the armed services might convince legislators and the White House that missing the date won’t be worth the political cost. While the respective sides have dug in their heels regarding the fiscal budget, missing a pay period could rile public anger. At the least, it encourages a temporary bill known as a continuing resolution. CNBC
- Trump said layoffs could be triggered if the Senate vote on the shutdown fails, while he added that negotiations are ongoing with Democrats and he would make a deal on Affordable Care Act subsidies. Trump later posted “Democrats have SHUT DOWN the United States Government right in the midst of one of the most successful Economies, including a Record Stock Market, that our Country has ever had…I am happy to work with the Democrats on their Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else, but first they must allow our Government to re-open.”
- Schumer said Democrats will be at the table if President Trump is ready to work with Democrats on ending the government shutdown and get something done on health care for American families, while Schumer stated that Trump is not yet negotiating with US Congress Democratic leaders. Furthermore, he separately commented that they are making progress on the government shutdown.
- Democrat and Republican bills to end the US government shutdown failed to secure sufficient votes for passage in the Senate, as expected.
- Trump said he would invoke the Insurrection Act if people were being killed, and courts and local officials were holding us up, while it was later reported that Trump said what’s happening in Portland is insurrection, according to a Newsmax interview. Furthermore, Trump said he called into federal service at least 300 members of the Illinois National Guard until the governor consents to a federally funded mobilization.
- US federal judge declined to immediately block President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois, according to the New York Times.
- China is rapidly building oil storage capacity as the country rushes to accumulate energy stockpiles. RTRS
- French shares declined for a second consecutive session as President Emmanuel Macron made a last-ditch effort to salvage his government, giving PM Sebastien Lecornu until Wednesday night to form a plan. BBG
- The White House is looking to sell parts of the government’s $1.6T portfolio of student loans although doing so will be extremely complicated from a logistical and legal standpoint. Politico
- Japan had a solid 30-year bond auction with firm demand, calming a jittery market following the surprise victory of pro-stimulus conservative Sanae Takaichi in the ruling party leadership race. BBG
- The US Labor Department’s September employment report, whose scheduled release on Oct. 3 was among those that have been postponed since the shutdown began last week, was expected by economists in a Bloomberg poll to show a 54,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls from August’s total of about 159 million. Carlyle estimates that just 17,000 jobs were created, among the weakest results since the US economy emerged from the 2020 recession. BBG
- Goldman raised its Dec 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900/toz (vs. $4,300 prior) because the inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26th – Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying – are sticky, effectively lifting the starting point of the price forecast. In contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable: GS
Trade/Tariffs
- Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said he is aware of US President Trump’s comments on truck tariffs, while he added that they will assess the details once clarified and will respond appropriately.
- Trump will meet with Carney at 11.45EDT/16:45BST on Tuesday.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed despite the tech-led advances on Wall St with several holiday closures including Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea, while Japanese stocks rallied again as the post-LDP election euphoria persisted. ASX 200 was subdued amid losses in Telecoms, Consumer Discretionary and Tech, with sentiment also not helped by weaker Consumer Confidence. Nikkei 225 printed fresh record highs once again amid ongoing tailwinds from the dovish expectations associated with the incoming Takaichi government, while Japanese Household Spending also topped forecasts.
Top Asian News
- Japanese LDP chief Takaichi said she is truly hoping to work together with US President Trump to make their alliance even stronger and more prosperous, as well as advance a free and open Indo-Pacific.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals, while he added they are closely watching FX moves and will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in the forex market. Furthermore, he said the new LDP leader Takaichi will make appropriate policies given Japan’s fiscal situation.
- US FCC is to vote this month to tighten restrictions on Chinese equipment posing a national security risk, according to the FCC Chair.
- RBNZ is establishing a new Financial Policy Committee which will be given authority to make key policy decisions relating to financial stability.
- World Bank raises China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% (prev. 4.0%), and 2026 forecast to 4.2% (prev. 4.0%), but warned of slowing momentum next year.
- Japan’s Komeito Party Leader Saito says LDP leader Takaichi explained her stance on “our” concerns; says they have a shared understanding on history and foreigners, according to Bloomberg; talks will continue.
- Japanese LDP Leader Takaichi, following talks with Komeito party, says “We discussed three points, shared agreements on two”.
- UMC (2303 TT) September 2025 sales +52% Y/Y; Jan-Sept sales +2.2% Y/Y.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened mostly lower, albeit with very marginal losses. Though, soon after the cash-open sentiment slipped a touch to display a more negative picture in Europe, but without a clear driver. European sectors are showing a slightly more negative picture vs initially opening mixed. Food Beverage & Tobacco takes the top spot, boosted by a couple of reasons. Firstly, Imperial Brands (+3%) helps to prop up the sector after the Co. announced a GBP 1.45bln share buyback and confirmed its FY25 guidance. Secondly, alcohol names opened higher in a read-across following strong Q2 metrics from US-listed Constellation Brands (+3.2% pre-market); the Co. beat on its top- and bottom-lines, where it cited continued demand for its beer portfolio. The likes of Diageo (+1%) and AB InBev (+0.7%) both move higher. Energy and Telecoms complete the top three; the former is helped by Shell (+1.7%) after the Co. said it expects “significantly higher” gas trading in Q3, with its outlook for that quarter also positive.
Top European News
- French President Macron reportedly believes the current political situation can be turned around and the Socialist Party and Les Republicans will return to the negotiating table, via Politico citing sources.
- French National Rally (RN) leader Bardella says both options of fresh legislative elections and advanced presidential elections are on the table.
FX
- DXY is extending on Monday’s upside that was triggered by JPY and to a lesser extent, EUR weakness. The government shutdown continues to grip the US macro narrative but is failing to weigh on the USD at the start of the week. This view may be re-appraised in the event that it drags on and has a more tangible impact on the US economy. The shutdown still shows no signs of being resolved after Democrat and Republican bills to end the shutdown failed to secure sufficient votes for passage in the Senate. As such, it is looking increasingly likely that mass layoffs of Federal workers are on the cards. For today’s docket, given that trade and consumer metrics will not be published, markets will instead focus on US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, NY Fed SCE, Atlanta Fed GDP metrics and a slew of Fed speakers. DXY has ventured as high as 98.47.
- EUR remains on the backfoot vs. the USD with EUR/USD returning to a 1.16 handle as French political risks remain front and centre. In terms of the latest, outgoing PM Lecornu has been instructed by Macron to hold final discussion with political parties to see if there is a way forward. There are three paths the current crisis could take: 1) a new PM, which would appease opposition parties. 2) Fresh legislative elections. 3) An early Presidential election. France aside, German industrial orders disappointed this morning but failed to generate any traction in EUR. EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.1661.
- JPY is once again lagging vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most G10 peers. Focus remains on the fallout from Saturday’s LDP leadership election in which, Abe-protégé Takaichi was declared the victor. However, it remains to be seen how much sway the incoming PM will have on policy at the BoJ. Accordingly, investors look to scheduled speeches from multiple BoJ officials ahead of the October meeting; however, Wednesday’s appearance by Governor Ueda has been cancelled. USD/JPY has been as high as 150.70 with the next upside target coming via the 1st August peak at 150.91. Note, Finance Minister Kato attempted to jawbone the currency overnight but it had little impact on JPY.
- GBP is softer vs. the USD but steady vs. the EUR. It remains the case that in the absence of any tier 1 data, focus in the UK is on the ongoing angst in the run-up to the November 26th budget. Ahead of which, Bloomberg reports that Chancellor Reeves is set to receive an unexpected GBP 5bln boost to her budget plans from inflation, which raises the taxable value of incomes, profits, and prices. The gain offsets higher debt servicing costs, helping narrow the UK’s projected GBP 20-30bln budget shortfall ahead of the budget. Cable sits towards the lower end of Monday’s 1.3417-90 range.
- Antipodeans are both are at the foot of the G10 leader board with NZD lagging its antipodean peer in the run up to tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision, which is set to see a reduction in the OCR. The scale of easing remains in debate, with a Reuters poll finding that 15 of 26 economists expect a 25bp cut to 2.75%, while 11 look for a larger 50bp move.
Fixed Income
- USTs are flat. Specifics for the most part are light owing to the ongoing shutdown and the subsequent lack of US data. Several Fed speakers due, but in the absence of fresh data points it remains to be seen what they can add beyond recent remarks to the narrative. On the shutdown, there are some glimmers of progress. President Trump commented that he is willing to look at and make a deal on ACA subsidies, but the government must reopen first. From the Democrats, Senate Minority Leader Schumer said Trump is not yet negotiating with them, but progress on the shutdown is being made. Currently, USTs find themselves in a thin 112-11 to 112-15+ band.
- JGBs picked up overnight following a strong 30yr JGB auction. Supply was in more focus than usual given the move seen in JGBs and particularly the long-end driven steepening that occurred after the weekend’s LDP election. Auction aside, potentially the most pertinent update has been BoJ Governor Ueda cancelling his speech on October 8th. As it stands, that was Ueda’s last scheduled appearance before the end-October BoJ; though, several other officials are scheduled before then. More recently, Takaichi met with the Komeito leader. A meeting of particular pertinence amid concern that Komeito could lead the alliance. However, the meeting was positive overall with agreements shared on two out of three points and talks set to continue on the third; the officials reportedly shared an understanding on history and foreigners.
- OATs are lower. On Monday, Takaichi met with the Komeito leader. A meeting of particular pertinence amid concern that Komeito could lead the alliance. However, the meeting was positive overall with agreements shared on two out of three points and talks set to continue on the third; the officials reportedly shared an understanding on history and foreigners. Thus far, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is contained within yesterday’s parameters, been as high as 86.7bps but shy of the 88.2bps YTD peak that printed on Monday. As a reminder, the 2024 high resides at 90bps.
- Bunds are softer than USTs but foreign better than OATs thus far. For Germany, the main update was another soft industrial orders print for August, a series that is even worse if large orders are excluded. A German Bobl auction was exceptionally weak, but had little impact on price action. Now we await ECB’s Lagarde and Nagel.
- Gilts are also in the red, trading a little softer than Bunds at points throughout the morning but only marginally. The latest tender auction was strong, though did not spur any follow-through to the benchmark. For the UK, focus remains on the budget as commentators/desks continue to share their thoughts on what measures Chancellor Reeves may need to take to shore up the UK’s dire finances. Attention on an Oxford Economics note that the OBR’s price forecasts are likely to be revised higher, increasing the taxable value of profit and thus providing Reeves with a GBP 5bln boost.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are subdued despite limited crude-specific newsflow to start the European session. WTI and Brent have been oscillating in a c. USD 0.70-0.80/bbl range and thus far, remain relatively flat on the session. Early in the session, Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas by more than 137k bpd and that increasing quotas after November was not discussed. WTI Nov resides in a USD 61.36-62.04/bbl range and Brent Dec in a USD 65.16-65.84/bbl parameter.
- Spot gold has pared back on ATHs formed early in the APAC session as the yellow metal continues to soar towards USD 4,000/oz. XAU peaked at a new ATH at USD 3,977/oz before falling back into the prior days range and currently trading at around USD 3,950/oz. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,941.06-3,977.40/oz intraday range.
- Base metals remain calm following last week’s gains in copper which set the largest weekly gain since April on supply outages. 3M LME Copper oscillates in a tight USD 10.66-10.75k/t band, as the market awaits China to return from holiday.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says OPEC+ nations did not discuss increasing quotas by more than 137k BPD in November. Increasing quotas after November was not discussed.
- Ukraine’s Energy Minister, following the Russian attack, says discussed with G7 additional gas imports; wants to increase gas imports by 30%. Ukraine is considering increasing LNG imports.
- Slovakian PM Fico says the nation has signed an agreement with the US for the construction on a new nuclear power plant.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Al-Mardaw says “President Trump’s plan is mainly an Israeli plan”…” The resistance will not accept an agreement that does not end the war or one that can represent a reversal of the rights of the Palestinian people”. “Hamas emphasizes that it wants to end the war, and if the United States is serious about the aspiration to end the war, it must conduct negotiations and take into account the Palestinian demands”. “According to him, in the event that negotiations do not lead to an agreement, “the door will not be closed to any real diplomatic effort aimed at ending the war”.
- “Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas are ‘positive’ and to resume Tuesday”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- US President Trump said he did not tell Israeli PM Netanyahu to stop being negative about a deal, while he added that Hamas has been agreeing to things that are very important and he expects a Gaza deal soon. Trump said that he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan and noted a strong signal from Iran that they’d like to see this done, while Jordan’s King also discussed the Gaza plan with President Trump.
- Egyptian media reported that the round of negotiations between Hamas and the mediators ended amid a positive atmosphere, according to Al Arabiya.
- Iranian media reports that 2 people have been killed from the Revolutionary Guard in an attack West of the country.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said he has made a decision on sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but wants to make sure what they are doing with them first, while Trump added that he is not looking to see an escalation regarding Russia-Ukraine.
- EU governments agreed to limit travel of Russian diplomats within the bloc following a surge in sabotage attempts that intelligence agencies say are often led by spies operating under diplomatic cover, according to FT.
Geopolitics: Other
- US President Trump called off the diplomatic outreach to Venezuela, according to The New York Times.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug Trade Balance, est. -61b, prior -78.31b
- 3:00 pm: Aug Consumer Credit, est. 14b, prior 16.01b
Central Banks (All Times ET):
- 10:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Fisk University in Nashville
- 10:05 am: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Welcoming Remarks
- 10:30 am: Fed’s Miran in Fireside Chat
- 11:30 am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Star Tribune Summit
- 4:05 pm: Fed’s Miran at Deutsche Bank Event
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have had an eventful start to the week, with political surprises cascading across different asset classes. The biggest headlines came from France, where markets were weak yesterday after PM Lecornu announced his resignation, which reopened fears around the country’s debt trajectory. So that pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread to a 9-month high of 85bps, whilst the CAC 40 (-1.36%) posted a big decline. By contrast, Japanese equities are continuing to edge ahead after Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the LDP leadership contest, with the Nikkei up another +0.37% this morning, building on its huge +4.75% surge yesterday. And over in the US, the S&P 500 (+0.36%) posted a 7th consecutive advance to hit a fresh record, even as the government shutdown showed no sign of ending.
Lecornu’s departure came only 27 days after taking office, making him the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic. His downfall followed failed attempts to form a stable coalition and criticism that his new cabinet looked too similar to the previous one. The centrist alliance’s partners in Les Républicains ultimately withdrew support, leaving the government unable to pass a budget or advance deficit-reduction plans. Macron has asked Lecornu to continue consultations with party leaders to “define a platform for stability” and report back by tomorrow evening, but the political arithmetic remains unforgiving even if there’s an outside chance he salvages something.
With parliament deeply divided after last year’s snap election, Macron’s options are limited. He could appoint another prime minister, potentially from the left, but that would not change the parliamentary gridlock that toppled Lecornu and his predecessors. A second more likely option is to call fresh legislative elections—now possible since more than a year has passed since the last vote—but that risks shrinking Macron’s centrist bloc even further. A presidential resignation appears unlikely: Macron has ruled it out repeatedly, and the next election is not due until 2027. If the president does call new elections, polling suggests they would likely strengthen Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which now commands about 35 % of first-round voting intentions. Markets have been fearful of such an outcome but are hoping that, if elected, the RN would follow a path similar to Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and become more mainstream and on debt offer limited but EU-compliant fiscal consolidation to preserve market access. So there is a scenario that fresh elections does help encourage a more market friendly outcome. The main market risks are that the RN don’t evolve like Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (Fdl) party or that the left’s influence increases and the pressure on the budget increases again.
The resignation led to an immediate reaction among French assets, with France’s 10yr yield spiking by +5.9bps yesterday to 3.567%, well above the +1.2bps increase for 10yr bunds. So investors are continuing to view France as an increasingly risky sovereign relative to its peers, and the Franco-German 10yr spread hit a 9-month high of 85bps. Notably, the Franco-Italian 10yr spread moved up to 2.7bps as well, which is its biggest gap so far since the two crossed over last month. Meanwhile for equities, France’s CAC 40 (-1.36%) underperformed, with bigger losses for banks including Société Générale (-4.23%), Crédit Agricole (-3.43%) and BNP Paribas (-3.21%). And in turn, that dragged down the Europe-wide indices, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) slipping back from its record high on Friday.
Whilst European markets were clearly affected by political developments yesterday, US markets continue to be unfazed by matters in Europe or the ongoing shutdown. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+0.36%) and the NASDAQ (+0.71%) both moved up to new record highs. That was in part down to a huge surge for AMD (+23.71%), which came after the news that OpenAI had agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from them. So that easily left AMD as the top performer in the S&P 500, with the index posting a fresh gain, even as just over half its constituents moved lower on the day. After the US markets had closed, the US announced that it would be taking a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, a Canadian mining company based in Vancouver (the stock was 215% higher in after-market trading). The mining company has claims in remote areas of Alaska and comes as the Trump administration continues to focus on critical minerals, including a similar deal with Lithium America Corps last week.
In terms of the government shutdown, last night saw a fresh vote on a stopgap bill to reopen the government. The vote failed as expected, with a margin of 52-42. Republican leadership needed 60 votes to advance the bill. Late on Monday, President Trump told reporters that he was open to negotiating with Democrats over the healthcare subsidies, saying “We are speaking with the Democrats, and some very good things could happen with respect to health care.” While Senate Minority Leader Schumer denied that claim, he remained open to discussing the subsidies. The comments indicated there was a potential path to a deal, but betting markets continue to see a large divide. So on Polymarket for example, it now suggests there’s a 68% chance of the shutdown not ending until at least October 15, that is down from 74% before President Trump’s comments. Polymarket is pricing in a 22% chance that this shutdown breaks the 35-day record. In the meantime, US Treasuries lost further ground given the earlier Japanese move and general risk-on tone in the US, with the 10yr yield (+3.3bps) moving up to 4.15%. We’re half a basis point lower across the curve this morning.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, as trading volumes remain subdued due to market holidays in China, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Across the region, Japanese stocks are continuing to climb, reaching fresh record highs, following yesterday +4.75% surge, marking its best performance since April, when it responded to the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (+0.37%) is edging higher, while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.22%) is lower. S&P 500 (-0.06%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.04%) futures are a touch lower.
Early morning data indicated that Japanese household spending increased at a faster rate than anticipated in August, suggesting that consumers are feeling relatively optimistic, which is a positive indicator for the recovery of private consumption. Consumer spending rose by +2.3% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and significantly surpassing the median market forecast of a +1.2% increase.
Meanwhile, the Japan 30-year auction saw stronger demand than its 12-month average, alleviating investor concerns following Sanae Takaichi’s election victory over the weekend. Yields on the 30-year JGBs have decreased by -2.6bps, trading at 3.28%, while the 10-year JGBs are down by -0.5bps, currently standing at 1.68% as we go to press.
Finally yesterday, the rapid ascent for gold prices in 2025 continued, rising another +1.92% to $3,961/oz. The latest move now means they’re up more than +50% on a YTD basis, leaving them well on track for their fastest annual gain since 1979, when they rose +127% amidst a surge in inflation after the oil crisis that year. Elsewhere, Bitcoin (+2.03%) also hit a new record, closing above the $125,000 mark for the first time at $125,260.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US trade balance and German factory orders for August. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Nagel, and the Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, Miran and Kashkari.
2b/European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
Lecornu to hold final talks, US shutdown ongoing & trade in focus – European Opening News
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 01:30 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed despite the tech-led advances on Wall St, with several holiday closures, Japanese stocks rallied again as the post-LDP election euphoria persisted.
- Democrat and Republican bills to end the US government shutdown failed to secure sufficient votes for passage in the Senate, as expected.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.
- DXY held onto yesterday’s gains, which were triggered by JPY and EUR selling. USD/JPY remains above 150.
- French President Macron said he has asked outgoing PM Lecornu to hold final talks with political partners to stabilise the country.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Aug), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, NY Fed SCE, Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), Ivey PMI (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US International Trade, Consumer Credit), EIA STEO, Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari, ECB’s Lagarde & Nagel, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mostly in the green with outperformance in the Nasdaq thanks to the rally in AMD shares after it signed a deal with OpenAI in which the latter is to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs based on a multi-year agreement, while US macro updates were light, given the US government shutdown entering its second week and with little sign of progress on a reopening so far. Nonetheless, the sectors were predominantly firmer, with Consumer Discretionary, Tech and Utilities leading the gains, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples and Health Care underperformed.
- SPX +0.36% at 6,740, NDX +0.78% at at 24,979, DJI -0.14% at 46,695, RUT +0.41% at 2,486.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said all medium and heavy-duty trucks coming into the US from other countries will be tariffed at 25%, beginning Nov. 1st. In relevant news, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said he is aware of US President Trump’s comments on truck tariffs, while he added that they will assess the details once clarified and will respond appropriately.
- US President Trump said he had a very good phone call with Brazilian President Lula, while he added they discussed the economy and trade, and will be having further discussions. Trump later said he had a great call with Brazil’s President Lula and will travel to Brazil at some point.
- White House said US President Trump is to host Canadian PM Carney on Tuesday, and to host the President of Finland on Thursday, while it stated that trade will be a topic of talks with Carney. It was later reported that Trump will meet with Carney at 11.45EDT/16:45BST on Tuesday.
- White House said that tariff rebates are an idea that is being discussed, but no decision has been made.
- White House crypto and AI czar Sacks sees a strong case for not selling the latest AI chips to China and sees Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang as a strategic asset in the AI race.
- European Commission intends to propose tariffs of 50% on steel imports worldwide above a quota set at 2013 levels on Tuesday, according to FT, citing a document.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Schmid (2025 voter) said the Fed must maintain inflation credibility, while he noted inflation is too high, and it is worrying that price increases are becoming more widespread. Schmid also commented that monetary policy is appropriately calibrated and is only slightly restrictive, while he stated that the labour market is cooling but remains healthy and that tariffs are expected to have a muted effect on inflation.
- US President Trump said layoffs could be triggered if the Senate vote on the shutdown fails, while he added that negotiations are ongoing with Democrats and he would make a deal on Affordable Care Act subsidies. Trump later posted “Democrats have SHUT DOWN the United States Government right in the midst of one of the most successful Economies, including a Record Stock Market, that our Country has ever had…I am happy to work with the Democrats on their Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else, but first they must allow our Government to re-open.”
- US Senate Democrat Leader Schumer said Democrats will be at the table if President Trump is ready to work with Democrats on ending the government shutdown and get something done on health care for American families, while Schumer stated that Trump is not yet negotiating with US Congress Democratic leaders. Furthermore, he separately commented that they are making progress on the government shutdown.
- Democrat and Republican bills to end the US government shutdown failed to secure sufficient votes for passage in the Senate, as expected.
- White House said the OMB is continuing to work with agencies on layoffs of federal workers.
- US President Trump said he would invoke the Insurrection Act if people were being killed, and courts and local officials were holding us up, while it was later reported that Trump said what’s happening in Portland is insurrection, according to a Newsmax interview. Furthermore, Trump said he called into federal service at least 300 members of the Illinois National Guard until the governor consents to a federally funded mobilisation.
- US federal judge declined to immediately block President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois, according to the New York Times.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed despite the tech-led advances on Wall St with several holiday closures including Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea, while Japanese stocks rallied again as the post-LDP election euphoria persisted.
- ASX 200 was subdued amid losses in Telecoms, Consumer Discretionary and Tech, with sentiment also not helped by weaker Consumer Confidence.
- Nikkei 225 printed fresh record highs once again amid ongoing tailwinds from the dovish expectations associated with the incoming Takaichi government, while Japanese Household Spending also topped forecasts.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C) pared some of the recent tech-led advances with risk sentiment clouded by the government shutdown.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.
FX
- DXY held on to the prior day’s gains which were largely due to the recent heavy JPY selling, although further upside in the dollar was capped as Democrats and Republicans remained at an impasse regarding the government shutdown. There were comments from Fed’s Schmid, but had little impact as he noted inflation is too high and it is worrying that price increases are becoming more widespread, while he added that monetary policy is appropriately calibrated and is only slightly restrictive.
- EUR/USD was contained with demand hampered amid the political uncertainty in France owing to the PM’s resignation after recent appointments to the new cabinet were met with heavy disapproval from opposing parties, while President Macron asked outgoing PM Lecornu to hold final talks with political partners to stabilise the country.
- GBP/USD struggled for direction after yesterday’s indecisive performance and amid the absence of UK-specific drivers.
- USD/JPY remained north of the 150.00 level following Takaichi’s LDP election victory, while the recent moves prompted some jawboning in which outgoing Japanese Finance Minister Kato stated it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals, and they will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly FX movements.
- Antipodeans kept to within tight parameters amid the mixed risk appetite and ahead of the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday, where there are split views between a 25bps and 50bps cut.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were little changed after settling lower yesterday amid the government shutdown and with supply ahead.
- Bund futures lacked demand following the prior day’s whipsawing and as German Industrial Orders data looms, while participants also await issuances including EUR 4.5bln of Bobls scheduled later and EUR 2.0bln of Bunds tomorrow.
- 10yr JGB futures initially declined amid upside in long-term yields and as participants braced for a 30yr JGB auction, although prices were later supported after the results of the auction showed stronger-than-previous demand, higher accepted prices and a narrower tail in price.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were rangebound with little fresh energy-related catalysts seen after the OPEC+ decision over the weekend and with Saudi Arabia maintaining its OSP premiums to Asian buyers for November.
- Spot gold kept afloat near record highs as the US government shutdown extended into a second week, while Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,900/oz vs prev. USD 4,300/oz and sees risks to its upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside.
- Copper futures eventually gained but with price action contained amid the mixed risk appetite and continued absence of its largest buyer.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually retreated overnight after hitting a record high yesterday above the USD 126k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese LDP chief Takaichi said she is truly hoping to work together with US President Trump to make their alliance even stronger and more prosperous, as well as advance a free and open Indo-Pacific.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals, while he added they are closely watching FX moves and will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in the forex market. Furthermore, he said the new LDP leader Takaichi will make appropriate policies given Japan’s fiscal situation.
- US FCC is to vote this month to tighten restrictions on Chinese equipment posing a national security risk, according to the FCC Chair.
- RBNZ is establishing a new Financial Policy Committee which will be given authority to make key policy decisions relating to financial stability.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Aug) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (Aug) 2.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.4%)
- Australian Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) 92.1 (Prev. 95.4)
- Australian Consumer Sentiment MM (Oct) -3.5% (Prev. -3.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he did not tell Israeli PM Netanyahu to stop being negative about a deal, while he added that Hamas has been agreeing to things that are very important and he expects a Gaza deal soon. Trump said that he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan and noted a strong signal from Iran that they’d like to see this done, while Jordan’s King also discussed the Gaza plan with President Trump.
- White House said technical talks are happening now on the Gaza plan, and the administration is working to move ahead as quickly as they can.
- Egyptian media reported that the round of negotiations between Hamas and the mediators ended amid a positive atmosphere, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he has made a decision on sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but wants to make sure what they are doing with them first, while Trump added that he is not looking to see an escalation regarding Russia-Ukraine.
- EU governments agreed to limit travel of Russian diplomats within the bloc following a surge in sabotage attempts that intelligence agencies say are often led by spies operating under diplomatic cover, according to FT.
OTHER
- US President Trump called off the diplomatic outreach to Venezuela, according to The New York Times.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French President Macron said he has asked outgoing PM Lecornu to hold final talks with political partners to stabilise the country, while Lecornu said he has accepted President Macron’s request for last-ditch talks and will tell him by Wednesday evening if it is possible or not, so he can draw the appropriate conclusions.
- ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the disinflationary process is over and noted that despite heightened uncertainty, the euro area economy has held up well. Lagarde reiterated they will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, while she added they are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
explains perfectly Japan’s mess!
Japan Just Joined the “Inflate or Die” Party
by Phoenix Capital Research
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 7:29
If you found this report valuable, click here to subscribe to Gains Pains & Capital for more content like it.
Japan just joined the “inflate or die” party.
Globally, central banks are engaged in an aggressive monetary easing cycle. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already cut rates eight times… The Bank of England (BoE) has cut rates five times…The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has cut rates six times to ZERO. And the Fed just implemented its first cut in 2025, with the Fed dot plots forecasting two more rate cuts by year end.
Why are central banks doing this? Don’t they understand that this easing will likely trigger another round of inflation?
Central banks are easing monetary conditions because they have no choice.
The pandemic ended over two years ago… but governments have NOT returned to pre-pandemic levels of spending. Globally governments continue to engage in massive fiscal stimulus programs/ overspending. Because taxes are inadequate to finance this it means that governments are running huge fiscal deficits. And these deficits require the large-scale issuance of debt to finance.
Put simply, globally the debt bubble is increasing at an alarming rate.
Now, there are three ways of dealing with excess debt:
- Pay it off/ grow out of it.
- Default.
- Attempt to “inflate it away” by devaluing your currency so each future debt payment is worth less in real terms.
Central banks are opting for #3. And as I noted earlier, Japan has finally joined the “inflate or die” party.
Earlier this week, the people of Japan elected Sanae Takaichi, a pro-fiscal spending, pro-inflation candidate. the Nikkei EXPLODED higher on the news while the yen collapsed.
This marks a massive shift globally as it signals that EVERY major government in the world (the US, China, Japan, and Europe) is now PRO-fiscal spending.
This is only going to worsen the debt situation… which is going to force central banks to ease even more aggressively. And the markets know it!
Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday. As I write this it’s now within spitting distance of $4,000 per ounce. Bitcoin is also at new all-time highs. And so are stocks.
This is the Great Global Melt Up. And it is nowhere near over. Remember, EVERY major country in the world is now in a race to devalue its currency. This means that trillions of Dollars/ Euros/ Yen in capital is fleeing cash and moving into risk assets.
The time to profit from this is NOW… because when this melt up ends and the bubble bursts… the world will experience a debt crisis that will make 2008 look like a picnic.
we are making just 100 FREE copies available to the public.
To grab one of the last remaining copies…
end
3C CHINA
The reasons so far of China’s soybean boycott. extremely important!
(zerohedge)
China’s Soybean Boycott – Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 05:45 AM
At the end of last week, new details emerged via a Wall Street Journal report outlining the Trump administration’s potential farm bailout, estimated to be in the range of $10 billion to $14 billion, aimed at cushioning farmers amid China’s pivot in agricultural purchases to Brazil. Trump blasted China last week, saying Beijing was “hurting” American farmers during the ongoing trade negotiations, and noted that soybeans would be a major topic in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Soybeans and agricultural purchases have yet again become a central battleground in US-China trade talks.
To make sense of it all, Bloomberg provided readers with a Q&A breakdown about the soybean debate ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which begins in late October:
Why is China refusing to buy U.S. soybeans?
China hasn’t purchased any soybeans from the current U.S. harvest. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other administration officials say Beijing is using soybeans as leverage in broader trade negotiations. Earlier this year, the two countries came to a temporary truce that lowered tariffs and eased export controls, but that agreement expires in November. Trump has accused China of holding off “for negotiating reasons only.” This season, Beijing has instead turned to South America. Brazil and Argentina have been supplying soybeans for China’s animal feed producers and oil extraction “crushers,” filling a need usually met by the U.S.
How is this impacting U.S. soybean farmers?
The fallout for farmers has been significant. In 2024, the U.S. made up about one-fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and those sales represented more than half of the value of all U.S. soybean exports. Without that market, growers are left with fewer buyers and weaker prices. Across the U.S. Midwest, farmers are watching storage bins fill up as harvests roll in. Researchers at Purdue University warn that higher costs for fertilizer, seed, and chemicals — combined with falling soybean prices — are squeezing profits. Many growers are choosing to store crops rather than sell at steep losses. That pain ripples across the industry. Grain elevators, processors, and the railroads that move soybeans across the country are all affected by the slowdown.
Does Washington have leverage to pressure Beijing into changing its policy?
The Trump administration has suggested it does. Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” from the next round of talks. Trump has promised to put soybeans at the top of his agenda when he meets Xi. However, Republican senators left a meeting on Sept. 30 with the U.S. ambassador to China discouraged, saying Beijing has little intention of resuming purchases anytime soon. Trump has said his administration will use funds collected from tariffs to provide farmer relief. On Sept. 24, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promised a new aid package “in the next couple of weeks,” though the federal shutdown complicates the picture.
Are there risks for China?
Yes, but they’re limited in the short run. China’s massive animal agriculture industry needs soybeans to produce animal feed. But Chinese crushers and farmers have already built up higher-than-usual inventories, and government reserves provide a further cushion. That gives Beijing room to wait until early 2026 before it feels pressure to buy more from abroad. China’s reliance on Brazil and Argentina brings long-term risks, however. With fewer suppliers, a future weather shock could prove costly, even as Beijing’s tilt toward Brazilian beans is boosting output from the world’s top grower.
What are soybeans used for?
Soybeans are essential to China’s food system. The bulk of imports are crushed into meal for animal feed for pigs, which supply most of the country’s meat, and other livestock. Soy oil is also widely used for cooking and food products. Soybeans are also processed into biofuels and industrial products.
Has China boycotted U.S. soybeans before?
Yes. During Trump’s first term, Beijing slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans as part of the 2018–2019 trade war. That pressure helped push the Trump administration to agree to the so-called Phase One deal. Under that agreement, China pledged to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans, in exchange for tariff relief. Trump later blamed his successor, Joe Biden, for not adequately enforcing the agreement. The current standoff looks similar. Once again, China is using soybeans as leverage to counter U.S. tariffs and restrictions.
Related:
- Trump Plans Up To $14 Billion Farm Bailout Amid China Pivot To Brazil, WSJ Says
- Trump To Bail Out Farmers With Tariff Money, Will Investigate Seed & Fertilizer Companies Over Jacked Prices
- China Pivots To Brazil, Squeezing U.S. Farmers As Trump Plans Relief Fund
- Trump, Bessent Hit Back At China’s Ag Purchase Pivot, Promise Farm Support Next Week
Key chart to understand China’s pivot:
4. European affairs and NATO
GERMANY
Berlin has a blackout..leftists knocked out the electrical grid
(zerohedge)
Far-Left Extremists Claim Responsibility For Berlin’s Biggest Blackout Since The Cold War
Monday, Sep 15, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Far left extremists are claiming responsibility for a major attack on a power supply hub providing power to southeast Berlin, which led to a blackout that left 50,000 people without power, the biggest blackout in Berlin since the Cold War.
The damage has been so severe that authorities are reporting it may take until 2026 to fully make repairs, according to Tagesspiegel.
A letter of responsibility was published on Indymedia, a website where many leftist groups publish such letters following attacks.
Berlin’s interior senator, Iris Spranger (SPD), said the letter was authentic.
In fact, the letter has many similarities to another letter published in February following a similar arson attack near the Tesla car factory in Grünheide near Berlin, which also led to a major loss of power in Berlin.
“We assume the group of perpetrators is from the left-wing extremist spectrum,” said the Interior Senator. “So that means: not from abroad, but from within the country.“
German media and authorities are indicating that the perpetrators conducted the attacks with a high degree of professionalism.
The attack was conducted in the Johannisthal district and involved an arson attack on two electricity pylons on Tuesday morning. It resulted in the longest power outage in 25 years, leaving up to 50,000 residents without power, with many thousands without power for over 60 hours.
The power outage has proven extremely difficult to repair.
Spranger implied that the attacks, which cut power to thousands of homes, led to deaths; however, it is unclear what she is referring to. She said the perpetrators accepted the deaths of people as “collateral damage”
“No one should accept the death of people. And we all have to face it together,” she said.
END
EUROPE
Tariffs from Trump is causing massive headaches for the European pharmaceutical industry as they lower prices to match Trump’s lower prices
(EpochTimes)
Goaded By Tariffs, European Pharmaceutical Industry Pivots To The US
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. tariff policy and its unmatched pharmaceutical market are pulling European drugmakers to invest more heavily, from new manufacturing plants to U.S. stock listings and discount pricing deals.
Since early 2025, European drugmakers have stepped up their U.S. presence. In the most recent move, the United Kingdom’s giant AstraZeneca announced on Sept. 29 a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, just months after pledging $50 billion of U.S. investment by 2030.
The UK-headquartered Indivior dropped its London listing in July to trade solely on Nasdaq, while Swiss giants Roche and Novartis unveiled U.S. expansion plans in April worth $23 billion and $50 billion, respectively. France’s Sanofi has likewise committed at least $20 billion in American projects through 2030.
The moves reflect both the pull of the U.S. market, which accounted for more than half of global prescription medicine sales in 2024, and the push of political signals from Washington.
On Sept. 25, President Donald Trump, after months of warning about pharmaceutical tariffs, announced a 100 percent levy on imports of branded and patented medicines from Oct. 1 unless manufacturers build plants in the United States.
“Pharmaceutical companies are very cognizant of what the White House is saying, and they’re acting accordingly,” Russ Mould, investment director at British investment platform AJ Bell, told The Epoch Times.
He said that the United States, as the world’s largest economy and the biggest pharmaceutical market, was not a place where any chief executive wanted to risk being put at a competitive disadvantage.
US Market Dwarfs Its Peers
According to data from the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), North America represented 54.8 percent of global prescription sales in 2024, compared with 22.7 percent for Europe.
Between 2019 and 2023, two-thirds of new drug launches were made first in the United States, compared with just 16 percent across Europe’s top five markets.
That dominance has left non-U.S. drugmakers highly exposed to tariff risk. The European Union exported nearly €120 billion ($127 billion) worth of medicines to the United States in 2024, making America its largest pharmaceutical trading partner, according to the European Commission.
The United Kingdom alone shipped £7 billion ($8.5 billion) in pharmaceutical products across the Atlantic in the year to March 2025, UK government data show.
Industry analysts say the U.S. tariff policy, combined with Trump’s push for lower U.S. drug prices, are accelerating strategic shifts.
“It does look as though it is the direction of travel,” said Susannah Streeter, money and markets analyst at UK consultancy Consultable told The Epoch Times. “If companies are planning to build a factory in the United States, they will be exempt from extra tariffs. So this is concentrating minds among pharma giants about where to locate future manufacturing facilities.”
Streeter said the trend of companies shifting stock exchange listings from Europe to the United States depends largely on where their core business is located. In AstraZeneca’s case, U.S. revenues in the first quarter of 2025 made up roughly 42 percent of regional sales.
Smaller firms, Streeter said, are less likely to make such a move due to the capital required and the need for an established U.S. customer base.
“It’s quite a big undertaking. You certainly require a lot of capital to start moving entire operations, uprooting them and moving across the United States. Obviously you would need to make sure that you have a strong customer base there … So the bigger companies, it’s probably more likely that you’d see movement more quickly.”
For investors, she said the rationale behind these shifts is to avoid higher duties that could raise the cost of drugs in the United States.
“The hope is that they will avoid increased duties, which would make the drugs more expensive … so that they can ensure that their drugs get the widest possible customer base,” Streeter said.
The Push From Europe and the UK
Britain spends far less on medicines overall, just 9 percent of its healthcare budget, compared with 15–17 percent in France, Germany, and Italy, data from the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) show. Streeter said this helps explain “why you see moves away from the UK first.”
In the United Kingdom, drug companies have to hand back a large share of sales under government rebate schemes.
In 2025, firms in the main voluntary scheme will return 22.9 percent of revenues on eligible sales of newer medicines to the National Health Service, while those in the statutory scheme will pay 31.3 percent from July, averaging 23.4 percent across the year.
Rates are set to climb further to 24.3 percent in 2026 and 26 percent in 2027. By comparison, clawbacks are far lower in other European countries—about 7 percent in Germany, 9 percent in Ireland, and 5–12 percent in France, according to the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry.
The pressure is not limited to Britain. The European Union is also rewriting its drug rules, which determine how long companies can sell a new medicine without competition from generics. In June 2025, EU governments backed a plan to give firms at least eight years of protection, plus up to two extra years in some cases.
US Price Pressures and the Pfizer Deal
While Washington is also pressing for lower drug prices, the U.S. still offers greater rewards than Europe thanks to its size, deeper stock market liquidity, and new drug launch priority.
Following the Sept. 30 deal in which Pfizer agreed to cut Medicaid prices to match those in other developed nations, Swiss lobby Scienceindustries said other European firms may follow with similar “mini-deals.” Director General Stephan Mumenthaler told Reuters he expected announcements “one by one in the coming days and weeks.”
Both AstraZeneca and Sanofi also unveiled measures on Sept. 26 aimed at expanding affordability.
For some companies, the U.S. market also looks more attractive because of its financial depth.
“The London Stock Exchange has been suffering from lower levels of liquidity, and that has been a concern, certainly compared to the United States, where there’s been a huge amount of trading activity,” said Streeter. “There are—there are concerns about that, certainly in London.”
Tariff Uncertainty and Investment Outlook
Uncertainty remains around how U.S. tariffs will be applied, particularly for EU countries. Under a trade deal reached with the United States in July, tariffs on pharmaceuticals were capped at 15 percent.
The Trump administration formally confirmed the exemptions on Sept. 25. The following day, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris said Dublin would study the impact of the broader tariff announcements, but welcomed the exemptions for EU products under the agreement.
In parallel, the United States and the United Kingdom agreed under a recent trade deal to work on giving UK-made medicines and ingredients better trade terms, depending on the outcome of a U.S. review of whether certain imports threaten national security.
“I still think that there is a question mark surrounding how onerous the tariffs would actually be, particularly for European Union-based drugs companies,” Streeter said.
Meanwhile, U.S.-based financial services and investment research firm Morningstar said in a Sept. 25 report that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals would likely have only a limited long-term effect on major drugmakers.
The firm estimated that a 15 percent tariff would reduce earnings by about 9 percent for U.S. companies and 6 percent for European ones, but said the impact would likely be eased by steps such as outsourcing production and securing multiple suppliers for key ingredients.
Analysts noted that European groups such as AstraZeneca and Novartis face higher upfront costs to expand in the United States, but could benefit from lower trade risks over time.
END
FRANCE
France is in one big mess!
Macron Launches Last-Ditch Effort To Salvage France’s Gov’t As Resignation Calls Grow Louder
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 07:45 AM
A political crisis is rocking France. President Emmanuel Macron has now given outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu until Wednesday night to broker a deal among France’s political parties and avert a deeper crisis following Lecornu’s abrupt resignation early Monday. Lecornu blamed divisions among parties, including Macron’s own centrist minority, for the breakdown in forming a new cabinet.
Macron’s move gives him some wiggle room before deciding whether to dissolve parliament and call early elections.
On Monday, as the political turmoil unfolded, UBS analyst Matthew Cowley provided clients with three possible pathways for Macron:
“President Macron faces three scenarios: appointing a new PM, dissolving parliament for legislative elections, or even calling an early presidential election—though the latter remains unlikely.”
Bloomberg Economics analysts Antonio Barroso and Jean Dalbard wrote that if Lecornu fails to broker a deal, Macron will be forced to either appoint a new prime minister or call elections. This scenario could result in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally:
“If Lecornu fails, Macron will have to appoint a new premier or call early elections — potentially giving the far- right National Rally its best shot at power.”
Cowley told clients early about the urgency for Lecornu to reach a budget deal amid Macron’s mounting negative sentiment nationwide:
France’s President Macron has given Sebastién Lecornu, the future ex-prime-minister, until Wednesday to try to forge a budget agreement with parties in parliament. That seems extremely unlikely to succeed. Macron, who had appointed Lecornu at least in part to deflect public ire over the political impasse away from him, is now back in the eye of the storm. His own party seems increasingly to be distancing itself from the party’s founder as Macron’s popularity plunges. To be sure, not everything in France is Macron’s fault, and yet as president, he’s the lightning rod. That doesn’t mean he will resign – very unpopular presidents have remained in office and seen out their term. It does raise the likelihood of fresh parliamentary elections, but those are unlikely to solve anything. It’s going to be a slow grind for French politics to get out of this rut. On a practical level, there will be no shutdown as, for the most part, the 2025 budget will roll over into 2026.
Cowley continued:
A new poll shows French people blame the entire political system for the country’s political crisis, and that in turn suggests fresh elections are unlikely to solve very much as the parliament would probably be just as divided as it is now. According to a poll by Elabe for BMFTV, three out of four people queried said Sébastien Lecornu, was right to have resigned as prime minister given the deadlock, and the same number blamed all political parties for not seeking compromise. Almost half of French people (47%) blame France’s President Macron for the political crisis, and 51% believe his resignation would help solve the political impasse. Slightly fewer – 42%– believe general elections for parliament would be the way out. The poll asked which coalition they would support in the event of elections : 28% said they would support the right/far right, 22% the left or far left and 12% would support the centrists. In a boost for the far right, 53% of French people said they would oppose the « replublican front » strategy where centrsits and leftists united to keep them out of power in previous elections.
National Assembly turmoil has already toppled two previous premiers, including Michel Barnier and François Bayrou, over budget disputes. It now threatens to derail a budget agreement ahead of next Monday’s deadline. This means the government risks needing emergency measures to avoid a January shutdown. Bond markets are reacting: France’s 10-year yield premium over Germany widened to 85 basis points, the highest since the start of the year.
Here is EU equity market commentary via UBS analyst Joe Dickinson:
EuroStoxx is unchanged to start Tuesday. Developments in Europe overnight saw President Macron giving outgoing PM Lecornu 48 hours to negotiate with France’s parties in a last-ditch effort to stem the country’s political crisis – market expectations for progress remain low.
Lecornu wrote on X, “At the request of the President of the Republic, I have agreed to hold final discussions with the political forces for the sake of the country’s stability,” adding, “I will tell the Head of State on Wednesday evening whether this is possible or not, so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions.”
For Macron to survive, Lecornu would have to forge a coalition between the center-left Socialists and the center-right Republicans, something that seems nearly impossible at the moment, as both remain divided on spending and taxes.
Meanwhile, former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe told local radio station RTL that Macron should resign: “I’m not for an immediate and brutal resignation … but [the president] must take an initiative.”
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Rare blackout in Western Russia after Ukraine attacks
Rare Blackout In Western Russia After Attacks From Ukraine
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 04:15 AM
After a huge overnight cross-border drone attack out of Ukraine, a sizeable chunk of Western Russia is experiencing a rare and significant blackout.
The outages have mostly been experienced in Belgorod Region in western Russia, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, who says that 40,000 residents were left without power starting Sunday evening.
Hospitals and other emergency facilities switched to generators, he noted in a message on Telegram. During the drone attacks a 10-year old boy was injured, he indicated.
Repair work has been ongoing, resulting in an update from local authorities as follows: “Following last night’s work by our energy and emergency services, there is still a partial power outage in 24 settlements, affecting 5,400 residents – this includes Belgorod as well as the Belgorod, Valuyki, Volokonovka, Graivoron and Shebekino districts.”
Ukraine’s President Zelensky meanwhile seized upon the rare development to proclaim to the Russian public that this is what Ukrainians are experiencing on a daily basis.
He also warned in an online written message that Russians must bear the ‘cost’ of the war:
“The Russians do not understand the cost of all these blackouts, of all the hardships that the people of Ukraine experience and endure during this war. And this is not even a question of their morality, which they lack, but of their physical perception,” he stated.
“They must understand the price of this. Ukraine strikes back, hitting military targets and energy facilities that sell their energy resources,” he continued, before stating further: “Russia sells its energy resources and then uses that money exclusively for war. That is why Ukraine is taking absolutely just steps.”
Russia has condemned the attack on its infrastructure, while engaging in stepped-up attacks of its own on Ukraine’s energy grid and vital infrastructure.
Both sides over the last months have clearly increased their all-out assaults on each other’s energy and weapons production sites, with the situation sliding, and aerial warfare growing more intense by the week.
END
GERMANY
the mess that Germany is now in with its deep fiscal spending
(KOLBE)
Germany’s “Debt Boom”: Merz’s €500 Billion Gamble Is Keynesian Madness On Steroids
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
In Berlin’s government circles, anticipation is rising: the massive debt program is ready for launch. Soon, the 500-billion-euro credit package—disguised as a “special fund”—will hit the economy like a tidal wave, supposedly to free the country from its chronic recession.
Looking back, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s term in office will likely be remembered for one thing above all: his gigantic debt orgy. Half a trillion euros in new borrowing—added on top of the already planned annual deficit of 3.3% of GDP—are supposed to reignite the faltering economic engine over the next decade.
Maastricht Is History
Year after year, the debt mountain, already 65% of GDP, will grow by another 1.15% in new debt. The annual net borrowing thus climbs to 4.6%—a far cry from the once “sacred” Maastricht thresholds. Those days are long gone. Berlin hopes for a Keynesian miracle, ignoring the fact that such policies always deepen structural problems rather than solving them.
According to Handelsblatt, citing insider sources, Economics Minister Katharina Reiche (CDU) will present the new growth figures on Wednesday.
Her ministry’s outlook aligns closely with the joint forecast of Germany’s leading economic institutes: both the DIW and RWI now expect GDP growth of 1.3% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.
All of them are counting on the debt stimulus—more is better, and qualitative questions or the limits of economic planning have long since disappeared from view. The belief that the economy can be centrally managed is now dogma in Berlin. The free market is treated as an adversary.
Merz’s “Turning Point”
Chancellor Merz recently declared a “turnaround” in investment flows. After years of massive capital flight, he now claims that money is returning to Germany. He seems to believe that the additional €50 billion in new loans—mostly directed into climate projects, infrastructure, and military expansion—will trigger a private investment boom. Through state guarantees, private capital is to be “mobilized.”
It’s a wager that debt-driven stimulus will revive the economy. In reality, it’s Habeck-style logic—industrial decay and bankruptcies are baked into the cake.
Label Fraud and Voodoo Economics
This “growth” is a statistical illusion. It doesn’t reflect market-driven investment or real demand—it’s a debt-fueled mirage, a bonfire lit by the printing press.
The consequences will be devastating: taxpayers will foot the bill through higher taxes or inflation once the new credit mass meets a stagnant economy and limited supply, pushing prices up.
True prosperity and growth must be measured differently. In a free market, goods and services arise from genuine demand. The state, by contrast, becomes a consumption factor that destroys purchasing power through bureaucracy.
Capital Markets Under Strain
The same applies to investment. Ideologically driven projects like the “green transformation” are, in truth, capital destruction programs. They drain scarce resources from the private sector, drive up financing costs, and tighten the labor market by tying up workers in unproductive bureaucracies.
For context: the state’s share of GDP currently stands at about 50%.
With a planned new debt ratio of 4.7% next year and projected GDP growth of only 1.3%, the private sector would need to shrink by roughly 3.4% in real terms to make the math work.
In other words: Germany is already deep in a debt spiral where each additional euro of public borrowing yields diminishing growth. The government plans to raise spending another 4–5% next year—piling more weight onto the private economy’s back. As the state expands, the productive backbone contracts. Berlin calls it “progress.”
The “New Dawn” of the Merz Government
The administration is now preparing to inject its vast debt package into the parched channels of the green subsidy industry and the emerging war economy. On German Unity Day, Merz wrapped this in lofty rhetoric—speaking of renewal, vigor, and optimism, urging citizens not to be paralyzed by fear.
But behind this staged optimism lies nothing of substance. Not a word about who will ultimately pay the bill for this credit-fueled firework—through taxes, inflation, and the erosion of savings. This isn’t a “new dawn.” It’s a demolition party.
While Berlin and Brussels double down on propping up their state-fed pseudo-industries, others are moving in the opposite direction. In the U.S., fiscal burdens for citizens and businesses are falling. In Florida, lawmakers are even discussing abolishing property tax altogether.
Washington is deregulating the energy sector, freeing it from the CO₂ straitjacket—while in Germany, every effort to restore market order gets buried under green dogma.
March Into Eco-Socialism
Quite the opposite: Berlin is already paving the way to refinance its debt binge through higher inheritance taxes and the abolition of the spousal tax break. Merz is working overtime to expand an already overextended state sector—now consuming more than half of the economy—while crowding out private enterprise step by step.
His pledge to cut bureaucratic costs by €16 billion and eliminate 8,000 public jobs belongs in the realm of political fairy tales. The distribution of the new debt torrent alone will require thousands of new administrators.
Germany is on a fatal path—into a new form of eco-socialism where the state is once again the center of the universe and the market is reduced to a mere auxiliary engine to keep the fragile edifice afloat for a little while longer.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
GERMANY
Newly elected German mayor stabbed, life in danger
By ReutersToday, 3:43 pm
Firefighters and rescue workers transport Iris Stalzer, the newly elected mayor of Herdecke, on a stretcher before she is airlifted via helicopter after she was stabbed, in Herdecke, western Germany, on October 7, 2025. (Alex TALASH / AFP)
DUESSELDORF, Germany — A freshly elected mayor was found injured in western Germany with multiple stab wounds, and her life is in danger, a security source tells Reuters.
Bild newspaper reports that Iris Stalzer, a Social Democrat who was due to take office after being elected mayor of Herdecke in the Ruhr region a week ago, was found by her son.
The case raises memories of the 2019 murder of conservative local government president Walter Luebcke, a supporter of then-chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy, who was shot dead by a far-right activist as he smoked a late-night cigarette on his terrace at home.
Local and regional authorities are not immediately available to comment.
END
SPAIN
Spanish Cops Uncover Fraud Network Of Fake Residencies & Sham Marriages Used By Illegals
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
The Spanish National Police has announced the arrest of 12 people in Vic for orchestrating fraudulent partnerships between Spaniards and illegal immigrants, part of a growing Europe-wide problem involving forged documents, sham marriages, and black markets for residency permits.
According to police, the network operating from the Catalonian town specialized in manufacturing fake family links to secure residence permits reserved for relatives of EU citizens.
As reported by 20 Minutos, the investigation began in November 2024, when authorities noticed a cluster of suspicious applications. In each case, the foreign applicant was living illegally in Spain and claimed to be in a stable partnership with a Spanish citizen. All applicants listed the same address on Rambla del Passeig, which investigators discovered was in fact a café.
The fraud unraveled when police found that the couples had not registered with the official Registry of Stable Partnerships and instead submitted forged documents to immigration officials. Among the arrested is the alleged mastermind who arranged the sham marriages, provided the fake paperwork, and advised clients on how to present their applications.
At least five foreigners managed to obtain legal residency before the scheme was uncovered, halting their deportations and granting them full EU benefits. In total, 14 applications were examined, with authorities seizing forged registration forms, partnership certificates, and payroll slips.
The case follows a separate investigation in northern Spain back in February, where police dismantled a ring arranging marriages of convenience between Spanish women and foreign men seeking legal residency. A lawyer from Miranda de Ebro, a male recruiter, and a female intermediary were arrested after police uncovered 13 planned sham marriages. Migrants allegedly paid up to €10,000 each to be paired with a Spanish partner, while women were offered between €3,000 and €4,000 to go through with the marriage.
Spanish authorities noted that such networks are lucrative for those involved. In 2020, another criminal group was disbanded for arranging over 50 sham marriages for Indian and Pakistani migrants, charging €20,000 each. That network had members operating across Barcelona, Valencia, and Sitges.
The Spanish operations are far from isolated. Earlier this year in France, prosecutors charged a civil servant from the foreigners’ admission service in Nancy with corruption and fraud for helping irregular migrants stay in the country. The official allegedly accepted bribes of €25,000 per case, altering documents to approve residence applications. Investigators traced at least 15 fraudulent files to her office, sparking a judicial probe into her network of accomplices and beneficiaries.
Similarly, last month in Germany, an investigation by German broadcasters NTV and RTL, along with Stern magazine, revealed a booming black market on TikTok for forged integration and language certificates — a prerequisite for permanent residency or citizenship in Germany.
Under German law, foreign nationals must demonstrate language proficiency and integration by passing tests administered by accredited providers such as Telc or adult education centers. Yet on TikTok, vendors openly advertise fake certificates with messages like “A1, A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, no school, no exam.” Videos in Arabic, Turkish, and Albanian promise fast-track paperwork, with prices ranging from €750 for basic certificates to €2,700 for higher-level documentation. Family “discounts” were even offered for multiple applicants.
Investigators also found forged driver’s licenses and industry qualification certificates circulating on the platform. Posts routinely attracted hundreds of thousands of views, with users openly commenting with requests for prices and availability.
END
IMPORTANT: ROBERT H
London in decline, the numbers tell the story
| 12:21 PM (9 minutes ago) | |||
to | |||
Highlights from Bloomberg / Edge Singapore
- London’s largest IPO this year raised only £98 million (US$132M).
- Q3 volumes collapsed 85% year-on-year.
- London’s 2025 total is down 99% from its 2006 peak of US$51B.
- Once half of all European fundraising, London’s share is now just 3%.
- Meanwhile, Singapore climbed to 9th place with US$1.44B raised.
- Mexico (US$460M) also overtook London, nearly doubling its volume.
Analysts say London’s “valuation discount” makes local firms targets for private equity takeovers, while companies seeking growth now favor New York, Singapore, Amsterdam, and the Middle East.
GERMANY/RUSSIA/NORWAY
ROBERT H
War drums?????
Germany is very short on natural gas. Norway cannot supply their shortfall. Talk is they have enough for 2 months before public shortages hit. Schroeder went to see Putin to see if they could turn on Nord Stream 2; he was told NO. Russia does not have gas for Germany.
Do people understand what this means? It is not just about the economy anymore. Germany will falter badly. Where they can get gas is a mystery. Let alone the cost, if they can get it soon enough.
France is in total turmoil politically and likely financially, if rumors are true that they dipped into frozen Russian funds to stay afloat. meanwhile in the UK digital ID seems like the prime concern to control locals who are turning more violent.
Meanwhile, it would appear that the Donald will be sending tomahawks to Ukraine while having knowledge and approving targets Zelensky (his advisors) choose to strike. Russia will have to assume that the 1st such launch could be a nuclear tipped missile. If this happens, then what Putin wants to do and what he will have to do are 2 very different things. As a moderate he has held back the hard liners. And that time is quickly ending. He will be forced to act harshly or will be replaced Kremlin style. His moment comes this November when these missiles reach Ukraine. Meanwhile, one should expect the pace of destruction to quicken in Ukraine as the carnage grows. It is why Zelensky is screaming as the place falls apart. As a proxy they were never capable of winning as Russia has been vastly underestimated by NATO. As it is the Patriot system of defense has declined to 6% efficiency as Russian missiles and drones all have been reprogrammed such that these systems are basically useless. No doubt other parties see this as well. One cannot imagine that Iran or China or North Korea do not observe how the systems collide. Even if they do not understand the programming. Because it is not that the missiles changed but the programming has. Russia is accommodating and adaptive in real time.
When such a missile is launched, say goodbye to US/Russian relationships as talk will be over. Force will take the place of words. Military might will take the place of diplomacy. The unknown question is China’s reaction.
November looks very disappointing and dismal, if this comes to past. As the old saying when it all fails, they take us to war. Perhaps this will be the case. Not withstanding be aware of fast moving events once those missiles are shipped.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HRS:
ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES
Back To Square One? Hamas, Israelis Meet In Egypt To Hash Out Trump Peace Plan
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 10:25 PM
After President Trump issued weekend threats telling Hamas to move quickly on implementing his 20-point Gaza peace plan, along with previously warning there’d be “hell to pay” if they don’t free all 48 remaining hostages (living and deceased), it seems the sides are merely back to square one in a sense as delegations have been sent to Egypt.
“A delegation of Hamas officials led by the terror group’s leader Khalil al-Hayya arrived in Egypt on Sunday night to begin negotiations on Washington’s plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip and free all 48 remaining hostages — at least 20 of them alive — as US President Donald Trump implored all parties to move fast toward an agreement,” Israeli media writes. An American official has told Sky News Arabia that still “There are many details that need to be worked on regarding the Gaza negotiations.” But the message from Washington is that the priority is the immediate release of the hostages.
Negotiations over exactly how swaps will go down, and other conditions related to the future of Gaza – especially the disarming of Hamas and IDF partial withdrawal – are set for the Red Sea resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh. Trump had also previously cautioned that Hamas doesn’t have much room for negotiations at all.
And yet, the Israeli side may not yet be fully on board either, which could present significant obstacles to achieving a final peace. Times of Israel points out:
Israel’s delegation also departed for Sharm El-Sheikh on Sunday night, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was still attempting to keep his right-wing coalition allies on board with Trump’s ambitious 20-point plan and prevent them from jumping ship and bringing down his coalition. Still, opposition leader Yair Lapid has promised Netanyahu a “safety net” to prevent his government from falling in any Knesset vote as a consequence of the prime minister advancing the deal.
Disapproval within Netanyahu’s coalition is not the only obstacle to reaching an agreement: Hamas has said it is prepared to release the hostages it is holding, subject to certain conditions, but is expected to make additional demands, including as regards the Israeli military’s withdrawal from the Strip and the release of Palestinian security prisoners in exchange for the hostages.
Hamas has indeed added some ‘extra’ demands such as asking for the release of some top terror chiefs held in Israeli prisons, which Tel Aviv is likely to scoff at.
Israel is said to have halted its Gaza City offensive pending the peace deal, however, heavy bombardment from the air has reportedly continued, with Gaza’s Civil Defense most recently saying that 24 people have been killed in the last 24 hours.
And Middle East Eye reports, “Israel has killed more than 100 Palestinians since Hamas agreed on Friday to release all captives as part of the latest US ceasefire plan, with truce negotiations set to begin Monday in Egypt.”
“Heavy bombing rocked the Gaza Strip over the weekend, with strikes reported on residential neighborhoods, refugee camps, and aid distribution points,” it continues.
Even Egypt, which is playing host to the ‘final’ talks, is adding to the pressure, with Egypt’s President el-Sisi declaring Monday that “real peace in the Middle East will not be achieved unless an independent Palestinian state is created based on the principles of international legitimacy that restore rights to their rightful owners.”
“Take the win,” Trump urged…
But those who will be meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh will not be focused on such big picture things as a two-state solution, but instead on restoring a post-Hamas order to the Gaza Strip. Israel is certainly not going to sign on to a full-fledged Palestinian state.
Sisi added that a “ceasefire, the exchange of captives and Palestinian prisoners, redevelopment of Gaza, and the initiation of a peaceful political pathway towards the creation and recognition of a Palestinian state represent the correct track towards lasting peace and stability.”
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Eli Sharabi’s 491 days as a Hamas hostage: The darkest moments revealed
Former Israeli hostage Eli Sharabi talks to The Jerusalem Report about the 491 days he spent as a hostage in Gaza and how ‘everything’ has changed.
Eli Sharabi, an Israeli who was held hostage in Gaza for 491 days.(photo credit: Courtesy)ByRUTH MARKS EGLASHOCTOBER 5, 2025 23:03
When Eli Sharabi, pale and emaciated, emerged from Hamas captivity last February, those familiar with the plight of the 251 hostages brutally kidnapped on October 7, 2023, were stunned. The recognizable face from posters was suddenly alive, upright, and walking toward his freedom.
Many could only imagine the horrors the 53-year-old endured during his 491 days in the hands of terrorists, forced underground into a dark, airless tunnel, and starved and deprived of basic necessities.
Others wondered how much he knew about the atrocities committed in his community of Kibbutz Be’eri and beyond on October 7 or if he was aware that his British-Israeli wife, Lianne, and their teenage daughters, Noiya and Yahel, had been murdered or that his beloved brother, Yossi, also from Be’eri, had been held hostage and later killed.
Sharabi, who since his release has fought tirelessly to see the remaining hostages freed, fills in many of those blanks in his captivating and horrifying memoir, Hostage (Harper Collins), which was published in English in time for the second anniversary of October 7.
What stands out most in the 208-page book are the astonishing details Sharabi manages to recall from his lengthy and terrifying experience. He reconstructs, almost blow by blow, the moments he was marched into Gaza: the dates, the times, the transfers from mosques to family homes, and ultimately into a tunnel. And he describes the relentless abuse – verbal, physical, and psychological – as well as the severe lack of food.
Sharabi also provides vivid portraits of his captors, their cruelty tempered occasionally by rare flashes of humanity, referring to them by the creative nicknames that he and his fellow hostages invented.
Recalling every minute
“I remember every minute since I was taken from my home towards Gaza… being in the first mosque, and all the houses, and after that in the tunnel,” Sharabi told The Jerusalem Report in a recent interview.
“Every minute, every day, every situation we had, I remember it,” he continued, adding that it was almost impossible to forget anything that happened to him.
The key to keeping a clear mind and to storing all the information in his head, even as he cried himself to sleep and suffered through severe hunger, was to maintain a routine for himself and the three other, younger hostages who were held with him – Or Levy, Eliya Cohen, and Alon Ohel.
As of this writing, Alon Ohel, with whom Sharabi forged a special bond, remains a hostage in Gaza.
“It was quite easy because first of all, I insisted of the young guys I was with that we have to wake up every morning and that we have to have a routine,” he said, describing how they would first pray, then workout – if they had the strength – and then talk about their families and friends, tell jokes and laugh together in order “to stay sane.”
Sharabi said that the four of them managed to keep track of the time and days based on the Muslim prayer times their Hamas captors religiously observed and also by asking them surreptitious questions.
“They have five prayers every day and we could hear everything, so we knew when it was the morning prayer,” he noted. “But we also used to ask them many, many questions so we would know what time it was, anything except the obvious question of ‘What time is it now?’”
In the memoir, Sharabi describes how sometimes even harmless questions could result in beatings or reduced food rations.
Sharabi also breaks down the nicknames that he and his fellow hostages gave to each of the Hamas terrorists based on their demeanor and attitude.
“When you live with them 24/7, obviously you have a relationship with them,” he said in the interview.
“It was a very delicate relationship, and sometimes it was confusing because they give you your food, and they decide everything about you – if you have a shower or if you can go to the bathroom or not – so you cannot – and we [the hostages] talked about this all the time – get confused. They were not our friends, and we had to be very, very careful when we were speaking to them.”
Naming the terrorists
In one chapter, Sharabi lays out how each terrorist got his nickname.
“The Triangle is one rank under Peaky and got this nickname because something about him reminded Or and Elia of the cartoon character Patrick from SpongeBob,” he writes in the memoir.
“The Triangle is a fifty-something-year-old, strong-looking, tall, and broad mountain of a man. He’s often the one who stops the other captors from losing their shit or acting on sudden bursts of cruelty, and I get the sense that he sees himself as a professional. Whenever he is around, the situation seems under control.
“When the Triangle makes us food, it always comes out tasty. He’s an excellent cook, given the conditions in the tunnels, and compared to the others. So whenever there is food to cook, it’s often his job to serve it up. Our other captors call him ‘the Chef,”’ Sharabi describes.
Other terrorists were given names such as “The Square,” “The Circle,” “Smiley.” and even “Garbage” and “Trash.”
“Trash,” writes Sharabi in the memoir, “gets his name because it becomes blindingly clear, early on, that he’s especially cruel, never missing an opportunity to open his filthy mouth at us or make cutthroat gestures in our direction.”
“Garbage” is described as “especially violent and cruel and takes pleasure in humiliating us – and since “Trash” is already taken – he becomes “Garbage.”
Glimpses of humanity
In the interview, as in the memoir, Sharabi explained that the four Israelis worked hard to figure out who was best to approach for simple requests such as asking for a bit more food, and by whom.
“We would say ‘Alon, you’re going to talk with this guy, and I’m going to talk to this one because he likes me more,’” he said. “We analyzed them all the time.”
Asked what surprised him most about those who were holding him, Sharabi said it was hearing them “cry into their pillows at night.”
“They were in a very bad mental situation,” he said.
“The other thing was that they kept their batteries powered so that at 10 p.m. every night they could watch a Turkish soap opera… It was like their escapism from the reality and we were very, very surprised by this,” Sharabi said, adding that “it was funny in a way.”
“These two things really surprised us because when you think about terrorists, you think about somebody bad and vicious and cruel, and then all of a sudden you can hear them crying into their pillows or you listen from the other room as they get all enthusiastic while watching a soap opera,” he said.
But those glimpses of humanity did little to change the way Sharabi now views Gaza and the Palestinians.
Everything has changed
“I lived on Kibbutz Be’eri for 35 years, and we used to do a lot of things for our neighbors [the Gazans], such as taking them to hospitals in Israel from the border, giving them food from time to time and, a very, long time ago, they used to work on Be’eri, so we still had a connection with some of them,” said Sharabi, adding, “we really, really, really believed that we must live in peace with our neighbors.”
“But after all the things that happened in Be’eri – and some of the cruel things that happened in Be’eri were not just by Hamas but also by Gaza civilians – everything for me has changed,” he said.
“I didn’t meet any civilians in Gaza that were not involved in some way; so for me, now everybody’s involved, and I cannot see hope,” Sharabi said of the situation two years later.
“In every argument with the terrorists while we were in captivity, or even in regular conversations, they promised they were going to arrive in Israel in 2026 or 2027 or 2028 and, if they see me again in Be’eri, they will slaughter me.”
Sharabi, who speaks fluent Arabic, said he was also shocked by how little those he met during his lengthy captivity knew about Israel or Israelis.
“I was in a family home in the beginning and would talk to the children about life and why they needed to fight for their land all the time instead of focusing on making Gaza a really good place to live, but I realized they really don’t know a lot about Israel or the world – they are really, really brainwashed,” he noted.
Fame and tragedy
As for what he knew about the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, or the fate of his own family, Sharabi said he learned the truth upon his release. He emphasized that he still doesn’t know everything that happened in Israel and his community that day.
“When we were there, we didn’t really know what was happening. We knew there was war around us, but we didn’t know what was really happening or if Israel was okay,” he said, adding that he has been exposed to the brutal events of October 7 “bit by bit.”
“I think what I was most overwhelmed with was what the Israeli people did to demand our release and how they help our families – not just the Israelis but the Jewish communities worldwide. It was very, very surprising for me,” Sharabi said. “We [the hostages] were sure that it was just our families and our friends who were standing once a week with our posters and protesting.
“Every place I go now, I find people that lived every moment since October 7 with Israel,” he continued, describing how he can no longer walk down the street in Israel or elsewhere without someone recognizing him, approaching him, and wanting to talk to him.
“I understand it. All those months my face was on posters in their homes, so I try to be available for anyone who wants to talk,” Sharabi said.
Since his release, Sharabi has campaigned relentlessly for the return of the remaining hostages, especially Alon Ohel, who, he said, became be like a son to him.
“We are waiting for Alon. We’re waiting for my brother’s body so his family can have a grave to cry on, and Israel needs it to finish. It’s too much time. It’s really, really sad,” he said.
Reflecting on his own personal loss, Sharabi stated, “I cannot do anything to bring back Lianne or my daughters… and crying all day does not give me anything. I cannot find any meaning in being angry or being sad all day.
“My family fought for me, and my friends fought for me. They stopped their lives for me, so I don’t have the privilege to stay in bed all day and cry,” he concluded. “The grief and the loss will always be a part of me until the day I die, but it will be in spite of life, not instead of life.”
END
OP-ED: Two years on, the left still denies Hamas atrocities
Sue-Ann Levy writes, “As the two-year mark approaches since the horrific atrocities of Oct. 7 in Israel, it amazes me how many in this world have fallen prey to virulent Jew hatred.”
OCT 7
Author: Sue-Ann Levy
As the two-year mark approaches since the horrific atrocities of Oct. 7 in Israel — during which Hamas terrorists butchered, violently raped and burnt to death 1,200 Israelis and took another 250 innocent people hostage— it amazes me how many in this world have fallen prey to virulent Jew hatred.
Hamas is still holding 48 hostages, a mere 20 of them starved to the point of emaciation and barely clinging to life.
They even murdered many family pets as if it was a blood sport.
Given Israel’s population, the 1,200 killed is equivalent to 40,000 Americans dying in 9-11.
Unlike the taxpayer-funded legacy media, Juno News depends solely on the support of its readers. Support strong, fearless, truly independent media. Become a Juno News premium subscriber today.
The most virulent anti-Semites — in the media, in universities, doctors and lawyers — didn’t even wait 24 hours to blame Israel for this outrageous attack, claiming there were no rapes, no beheadings and no burnings.
Some even stated — horrendously — that what happened on Oct. 7 was merely resistance for having to live in an open-air prison under occupied rule.
No one ever said that Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005 and it has been under Hamas rule since 2007 or that more than 80% of Gazans supported Hamas, according to polls.
There is ample proof that the haters were lying then and continue to lie.
Filmmaker Igal Hecht’s powerful documentary The Killing Roads — which he filmed a year ago — shows all the sickening atrocities captured largely by Hamas on their GoPro cameras.
I saw it a week ago and I’m betting not one legacy journalist in Canada — particularly those at the CBC who repeat Hamas talking points non-stop — will ever view it.
Even when traumatized Israeli women were released from captivity and began — reluctantly — to speak about their ordeal, it was astounding to think that women’s advocacy organizations were conspicuous in their silence.
The Red Cross did nothing to bring much needed medicines to the hostages, even when Israeli families begged for their help.
The legacy media has done its part by lazily quoting whatever the Gaza Health Ministry dishes out, including the fatality numbers and the humanitarian crisis/famine lies—without question.
It is heartbreaking to think that so many worldwide were not only denying what happened but victimizing Israel for the brutal atrocities of 10/7, most especially the UN and its agencies.
Heaven forbid Israel should fight back against a death cult that has broken ceasefire after ceasefire over the years.
The Hamas terrorists — and the many Gazans who aided Hamas on Oct. 7 — saw how easy it was to manipulate weak minds, the leftist legacy media and those whose anti-Semitism was hidden barely beneath the surface prior to Oct. 7.
The hatred towards Zionists — characterized as “baby killers” and “genocide supporters” among other things — has morphed into blatant attacks on the Jews. The haters no longer hide their Jew hatred.
Rampant Jew hatred continues to play out on the streets of major Canadian cities where masked terrorist apologists call for the “Death to the Jews” and the eradication of the Jewish state. This in-your-face anti-Semitism has been emboldened by our weak leaders and the impotent police forces.
Uninformed Hollywood actors have followed in lockstep, even bringing their twisted anti-Israel narrative to the Toronto International Film Festival.
A recent study showed that the Toronto District School Board is rife with anti-Semitism and our universities have become breeding grounds for Jew hatred.
Genocide has been the most misused allegation, a close second to the insistence by our politicians and other activists that Islamophobia has been as pervasive as anti-Semitism.
Richard Kemp, a retired British colonel who has spent considerable time in Israel and Gaza over the past two years, told a recent event honouring IDF soldiers that the genocide claims are the big lie.
He said Hamas is the genocidal entity. The Hamas charter, he says, calls not just for the death of Jews in Israel but Jews worldwide.
He called the IDF the most moral army in the world and said in his experience, Israel is the first country in history to provide humanitarian aid to the population of an enemy it is fighting.
You wouldn’t know that to hear the lies mouthed by the legacy media and facilitated, if not enabled, by our weak politicians, in particular our Prime Minister Mark Carney, who even while campaigning for PM made no secret of his disdain for Israel.
Without any thought or care for the fallout — or consultation with Parliament — he announced two weeks ago he’d be supporting a Palestinian state.
His weak understanding of geopolitics and his disdain for the Jewish people notwithstanding, it was clear his main, or only, concern has been to maintain the support of Canada’s steadily increasing Muslim population.
Ditto for Premier Doug Ford, who has done nothing to protect the Jewish communities in this province by insisting that the police do their jobs, perhaps even imposing the anti-mask regulations.
In Toronto, we have come to call many on council the Hamas caucus, led by a mayor who has shown she has no time for the Jewish community. In the past two year,s Olivia Chow openly snubbed many events and has tied the hands of our police from arresting those terrorist sympathizers who block our streets with their vitriolic slogans and their prayer meetings.
During the recent High Holidays, synagogues like mine were forced go through several steps to ensure the security of all attendees.
Whether Hamas will agree to President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace deal or release the remaining hostages still remains in the balance. Although Israel has signed off and made concessions in the process, Hamas continues to play games with people’s lives, the Gazans included, knowing full well that the sympathies of the world are on their side.
They have played the game well over the past two years and there is no doubt they have won the war of words.
Their propaganda has been swallowed hook, line and sinker by those who need to hate.
But during these dark times for the Jews worldwide, we have remained proud of who we are and Israelis are more resilient than ever.
The clear difference between Palestinians/Hamas and Israelis is that the former danced on the graves of the people killed, while Israelis have sworn for two years that they will dance again.
END
GLORIOUS DAY? A CAUSE FOR CELEBRATION? UTTER DESTRUCTION OF GAZA ?
Hamas celebrates two years since October 7, calls terror attack a ‘glorious day’
The Hamas terror organization shared a statement celebrating the two-year mark since the October 7 attacks, with an AI video that showed Yahya Sinwar and footage from the terror attack.
Palestinians take control of an Israeli tank after crossing the border fence with Israel from Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, October 7, 2023.(photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 7, 2025 01:01Updated: OCTOBER 7, 2025 01:03
Hamas called the October 7 Massacre a “glorious day of crossing,” in a message commemorating the two years since the beginning of the war between Israel and the terror organization.
The video, made mostly from AI footage, celebrates the attacks and calls the terrorists who pillage Israeli kibutzim “heroes,” with them being described as going in “defense of their religion and homeland.”
It also names the terrorist leaders killed by Israel in the last two years of war, while using Artificial Intelligence to recreate Yahya Sinwar’s death footage in Gaza.
Jews worldwide commemorate October 7 Massacre’s second anniversary
Jewish communities around the world commemorated the second anniversary of the October 7 Massacre ahead of the date, which fell on the holiday of Sukkot.
Events were held across France on Sunday, according to Yonathan Arfi, President of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France (CRIF).
Next Sunday, the Zionist Council of New South Wales is set to hold an anniversary event with the brother of Australian citizen and massacre victim Galit Carbone to be the keynote speaker.
In Victoria, the following Sunday will see another tribute to the victims of the massacre, hosted by the Zionist Council of Victoria.
Across the Atlantic, memorial events were scheduled in the United States. Temple Ahavat Shalom and Temple Judea planned a commemoration for Tuesday, during the first day of Sukkot. The UJA-Federation of New York held an event on Sunday evening with hostage families and other victims.
In Canada, the UJA Federation of Toronto held an event on Sunday. The memorial featured a panel, testimonials, and music to engender remembrance of the tragedy.
In South Africa, the South African Zionist Federation is holding a musical tribute to October 7 victims. Former hostage Agam Berger is set to give a violin performance at the October 16 Johannesburg event.
Other communities, such as in Argentina, held early commemorations. On September 30, Argentinian Jews gathered in Centenario Park to demand the release of the 48 people still held captive in Gaza, including 4 Argentine nationals.
Michael Starr contributed to this report.
IRAN VS USA
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
this is happening because of the vaccine which causes lack of immunity:
(EpochTimes)
Multidrug-Resistant Fungus Spreading Rapidly In Europe: ECDC
Monday, Sep 15, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A multidrug-resistant fungus is spreading quickly across hospitals in Europe, posing a major threat to health care systems and patients, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in a Sept. 11 statement.
“Candidozyma auris (C. auris) is a fungus that usually spreads within healthcare facilities, is often resistant to antifungal drugs, and can cause severe infections in seriously ill patients. Its ability to persist on different surfaces and medical equipment and to spread between patients makes it particularly challenging to control,” the ECDC said.
“Case numbers are rising, outbreaks are growing in scale, and several countries report ongoing local transmission.”
Symptoms of C. auris infection include fever, high heart rate, low body temperature, fatigue, pain or pressure in the ear, and low blood pressure, according to the Cleveland Clinic.
According to a survey report released by ECDC on Sept. 11, there have been 4,012 cases of C. auris infections or colonization in the European Union (EU) or European Economic Area (EEA) countries between 2013 and 2023. Colonization involves the presence of fungus in a host without causing an illness.
The ECDC says a rapid spread of the infection is due to it becoming endemic in areas where there was no presence earlier.
The top five European nations with the highest C. auris case numbers during this period were Spain with 1,807 incidents, Greece with 852, Italy with 712, Romania with 404, and Germany with 120 cases, according to the report.
Since 2020, case numbers have been increasing rapidly, with 1,346 cases reported by 18 countries in 2023, it said.
“Despite this increase, the recorded case numbers only reflect the tip of the iceberg as systematic surveillance is not in place in many countries,” the report warned.
In Greece, Spain, and Italy, the time period between the first documented C. auris incident and the infection becoming endemic in the region has been five to seven years, “showing how rapidly C. auris can spread through hospital networks.”
“This rapid dissemination of C. auris is of serious concern and points to a high risk for continued C. auris spread throughout European healthcare systems,” the report states. “With increasing C. auris cases and its widespread geographic distribution, sustained control will become more difficult.”
The report suggested implementing early detection and surveillance systems, as well as rapid infection prevention and control measures, to mitigate the impact on patients.
In its statement, ECDC said only 17 out of the 36 EU/EEA nations currently have a national surveillance system to monitor C. auris, with only 15 having developed specific infection prevention and control guidance at the national level.
“C. auris has spread within only a few years—from isolated cases to becoming widespread in some countries,” Dr Diamantis Plachouras, head of ECDC’s Antimicrobial Resistance and Healthcare-Associated Infections Section, said.
“This shows how rapidly it can establish itself in hospitals. But this is not inevitable. Early detection and rapid, coordinated infection control can still prevent further transmission.”
Patients infected or colonized with C. auris can spread the fungus onto objects in health care settings, such as bedrails and doorknobs, according to an April 2024 post by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Other individuals may then come into contact with these surfaces, thereby becoming colonized or infected by the fungus, the CDC said.
“C. auris mostly affects patients with severe underlying medical conditions and those requiring complex medical care and invasive medical devices. Invasive medical devices are often necessary but create pathways for C. auris to get into the body,” the CDC said.
Examples of invasive medical equipment include breathing tubes, urinary catheters, and feeding tubes.
“People who do not have these risk factors generally do not carry C. auris or become sick from C. auris. This includes healthcare providers and visitors,” the agency said.
Since 2016, when the first C. auris infection was reported in the United States, the number of clinical cases has continued to rise, according to the CDC. In 2023, there were 4,514 new clinical C. auris cases in the country.
Between 2016 and 2023, there have been a total of 10,788 clinical cases, with California, Nevada, Florida, New York, and Illinois seeing the highest number of incidents.
“However, since 2022 the year-to-year increase has lessened compared to previous years,” the CDC said.
END
ROBERT H /TWO SUBMISSIONS
Nicolas Hulscher, MPH on X: “
COVID-19 “Vaccines” Increase Your Risk of SEVEN Cancer Types 2 Landmark Studies tracked 8.7 MILLION people in Italy and South Korea — comparing vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Breast, bladder, lung, prostate, thyroid, gastric, and colorectal cancers ALL surged after vaccination. https://t.co/txQF0HRKIY”
Nicolas Hulscher, MPH on X: “Our study documents the first-ever direct evidence that mRNA “vaccine” genetic code integrates into the human genome. In a stage IV bladder cancer patient, chromosome 19 now carries a non-human Spike gene sequence. mRNA technology is NOT SAFE FOR HUMAN USE. https://t.co/HmJ26XEzaU” / X
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWS ADDICTS
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Rabobank: Gold Confirms The World Has Passed The Fiscal Event Horizon
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 11:45 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
France is once again engulfed in political crisis following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu just hours after his cabinet was sworn in. Lecornu lasted less than a month in the job, a tenure that makes Liz Truss look like Lord Liverpool. Jordan Bardella, President of the right-wing National Rally, has urged President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call fresh elections.
Lecornu’s is the third French government to collapse in the last 12 months. Former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier lost the Premiership in December following failed attempts to pass budget measures and Francois Bayrou similarly lost a no-confidence vote last month after his attempts to rein in France’s runaway deficit were rejected by parties on the left and right.
French 10y OAT yields rose 6bps to 3.57% while 10y Bunds were comparative outperformers with yields rising just 2bps to 2.72%. The 10y OAT spread of 85bps is now 2bps wider than the spread between 10y Italian bonds and the equivalent Bund, highlighting Italy’s newfound status as an island of (comparative) political stability on the continent.
Equity markets took a similarly dim view of the latest evidence that France lacks the political capacity to pull the country out of its fiscal nosedive. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 0.41% to underperform all of the major American indices as well as the Nikkei, KOSPI, CSI300, ASX200 and TAIEX. The picture was even gloomier when drilling down into the performance of the CAC 40, which recorded a 1.36% fall on the day while the German DAX closed flat.
The Euro fell by 0.26% to 1.1711 while Sterling – presumably operating on the ‘least dirty shirt’ theory of comparative value (though, the British public finances and political apparatus are little better than the French) – rose slightly to close at 1.3485. The Dollar and gold were the big winners on Monday. The DXY index gained 0.39%, while gold rose another 1.92% to close at (another) all-time high of $3,960/oz and USDJPY gapped higher following news that Abe-acolyte Sanae Takaichi had won the LDP leadership race in Japan.
The S&P 500 also hit a fresh all-time high to close at 6,740 as chipmaker AMD surged 24% on news that it had struck a multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI to build AI data centers with AMD chips. The deal involves OpenAI purchasing 6 gigawatts worth of chips and also receiving warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares if certain milestones for chip deployment are reached. This kind of circularity is becoming a feature of the AI frenzy, with NVIDIA (the market leader in AI chips and AMD’s main competitor) recently announcing a $100bn investment in OpenAI, the proceeds of which would be used to buy – you guessed it – NVIDIA chips.
Given the confluence of events and price action in gold and equities on Monday, perhaps some European investors have been reading Bloomberg and are now adopting the ‘Turkish portfolio’ of 50% gold, 50% equities as their formerly developed markets behave more and more like an emerging market?
AI sceptics (including yours truly) have regularly made comparisons to the ‘irrational exuberance’ that characterized the dotcom boom and subsequent bust. There are many similarities, whether it be the classic ‘new era thinking’ (usually a harbinger of impending doom), the techno-optimism or the eyewatering P/E levels. But there are differences, too. This time around the companies driving the boom do actually have earnings, and perhaps it makes sense to pay very high valuations to get a slice of those earnings if you are afraid that your country has passed the fiscal event horizon and the only way out is a general inflation via debasement of the currency that will obliterate the value of your wages and savings.
The gold price (and arguably stock prices, and arguably house prices in many markets) is sending a signal that such a general inflation is already underway. Some might quibble with that characterization, pointing to EM central bank buying as a the main driver of the gold price rally, but why are those central banks buying gold in the first place? Does the breakdown of the liberal globalized trading system that drove inflation lower and lower for decades presage lower, or higher, inflation in the future? Perhaps the answer to that question explains why the 10y Treasury yield busted through the top of a 40-year trend channel in 2022 and has stayed up there ever since?
Signs of breakdown of the globalized trading system are not hard to find. Fears have been stoked in Australia after China’s state-owned China Mineral Resources Group placed a ban on Dollar-denominated purchases of iron ore from Australia’s BHP. Australian politicians have sought to downplay the action as a “commercial matter” related to pricing, but the real tell is that iron ore shipments denominated in Chinese Yuan continue to flow.
The international market for iron ore is monopsonistic – China is the only buyer of scale because China produces ~54% of global steel output. The market has also, historically, been oligopolistic, with Australia and Brazil being the two suppliers of scale who could feed China’s insatiable demand for the raw material. However, that is changing as Chinese demand moderates and supply sources are diversified by Belt and Road-backed (not a coincidence) Simandou mine in West Africa coming online. Those factors have seen China gain market power over Australia, and it appears that China is now using that market power to pressure Australia to receive payment for what is (by far) it’s most important export in CNY, rather than USD.
This episode is likely to be much larger than a commercial disagreement between a mining company and an importing company (whose state-backed nature should not be forgotten). Xi Jinping was clear at last month’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that he wanted to increase the global role of the CNY, and thereby chip away at the USD’s position as the world reserve currency. That would weaken the US’s ability to use the Dollar as a weapon by applying sanctions, increasing the cost of Dollar-denominated borrowing or cutting other countries out of the SWIFT payments system.
A logical next step could be for Chinese exporters to require Australian importers to pay for manufactured goods in CNY, rather than Dollars. Using China’s market power as a major exporter of goods would create demand for the currency that they are offering in exchange for Australia’s exports, and pry Australia further away from the Dollar. Of course, the United States does not want this to happen and neither does Australia, because it wants Dollars to pay for its imports from every other country and also to pay for the AUKUS submarines that it has committed to buy from the United States.
Is China about to tell the Land Down Under that it is time to choose? We’ve been warning of those sorts of risks in this missive for years now. Economic statecraft (not collaborative free trade policed by the WTO) is the law of the jungle, and it’s eat or be eaten.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/MADURO// USA
Trump Calls Off Diplomacy With Maduro As Secret DOJ-Approved Kill List Revealed
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 01:00 PM
Several significant developments this week have paved the way for more likely US military escalation off the coast of and in Venezuela, at a moment of unprecedented numbers of Pentagon assets parked in the Caribbean.
First, President Trump has called off diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, The New York Times reported Monday. The president called his special envoy, Richard Grenell, who had been leading the efforts to negotiate with Maduro, informing him the US halting all diplomatic outreach with the Venezuelan government.
As of about two weeks ago, Grenell confirmed that contacts with the Maduro government had been ongoing, however, this statement caught other top members of the administration – especially Secretary Marco Rubio – off guard.
Another big development, following the Pentagon’s at least four strikes thus far on boats believed involved in drug smuggling operations, is the revelation of a classified legal opinion from the DOJ providing cover to use military force against an expanding list of cartels and suspected drug traffickers.
“The opinion, which was produced by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel and has not been previously reported, argues that the president is allowed to authorize deadly force against a broad range of cartels because they pose an imminent threat to Americans,” CNN reports. “The list of cartels goes beyond those the administration has publicly designated as terrorist organizations, the people familiar with the opinion said.”
It essentially gives the US carte blanche for an open-ended war against these groups on the secret list, which hearkens back in parallel to the Obama years of secret drone wars in the Middle East, particularly Yemen.
Indeed analysts cited in the CNN report which broke the story compared the classified list to similar ones in the immediate yeas after 9/11.
“If the OLC opinion authorizing strikes on cartels is as broad as it seems, it would mean DOJ has interpreted the president to have such extraordinary powers that he alone can decide to prosecute a war far broader than what Congress authorized after the attacks on 9/11,” Sarah Harrison, a senior analyst at the Crisis Group, told the outlet.
“By this logic, any small, medium or big group that is trafficking drugs into the US – the administration could claim it amounts to an attack against the United States and respond with lethal force,” added Harrison. So far the US has been engaged in shoot to kill actions of the Venezuelan coast targeting ‘narco-terrorists’ and traffickers.
According to the NY Times there are plenty of officials in the administration outright gunning for full regime change in Caracas. “Some top aides to Mr. Trump want him to approve a military operation to remove Mr. Maduro from power,” it reports.
“The proponents of a regime-change push include Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser; John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director; and Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s chief domestic policy and homeland security policy aide,” the report adds.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1669 DOWN 0.0040 PTS OR 40 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 150.77 UP 0.408 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3439 DOWN .0044 OR 44 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3955 UP 0.0011 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED HOLIDAY
Hang Seng CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.28%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED HOLIDAY
/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.28 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 2,175.26 PTS OR 4.75%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3952,.00
silver:$48.20
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.12 UP 21 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.132% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.673% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.284 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.270 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.581 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7275 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1660 DOWN 0.0043 OR 43 basis points
USA/Japan: 150.84 UP 0.481 OR YEN IS DOWN 48 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7540 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.571 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3946
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The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN ATXXXX CLOSED CNY ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1443
TURKISH LIRA: 41.70 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.673 DOWN 1 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.270 DOWN 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.159% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.748 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.595 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 3978.85
SILVER AT 10;00: 48.40
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 4.44 PTS OR 0.05%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 3.81 pts or 0.03%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 3.07 pts or 0.04%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 29.70pts or 0.19%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 81.73 or 0.18%
WTI Oil price 61.55 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.46 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.84 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 13/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.231 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.756 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1653 DOWN 0.0057 OR 57 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3422 DOWN .0062 OR 62 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7260 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.535 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.671 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.275 DOWN 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.87 UP 1.505 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3954 UP 0.0009 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.98
Brent OIL: 65.69
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.132
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.727%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 3.572%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.191 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.773 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.33 UP 52 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.70 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.75 UP 1 AND 25/100 roubles //
GOLD $3981.25 . (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 47.71 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 91.99 OR 0.64%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 141.44 PTS OR 0.57%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.16 UP 0.79 PTS OR 4.83%
GLD: $ 366.26 UP 1.88 PTS OR 0.52%
SLV/ $43.35 DOWN 0.67 PTS OR OR 1.52%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 180.28 PTS OR 0.58%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Gold Futs Top $4000 For First Time As Goldman Says It’s All Just A ‘Short Fiat’ Trade; Big-Tech & BTC Slip After ORCL Angst
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY:
Stocks hit on AI margin fears, bonds lifted – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 04:09 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude flat, Dollar up, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: The Information raises AI profitability concerns; NY Fed 1 & 5-year inflation expectations rise; Economic Optimism falls; Miran reiterates dovish arguments; Kashkari appears more concerned about inflation; Strong 3yr auction; EIA raises 2025 world oil demand forecast; TSLA lowers vehicle prices; DELL lifts guidance; IBM partners with Anthropic.
- COMING UP: Data: German Industrial Output (Aug), Japanese Overtime Pay (Aug), Swedish CPIF Flash (Sep). Events: RBNZ & NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep). Speakers: ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde; Fed’s Musalem, Barr, Goolsbee, Kashkari; BoE’s Pill. Supply: Australia, UK, Germany, US. Holiday: China.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks were sold on Tuesday, with weakness seen in the wake of reports in The Information that internal data shows the financial challenge of renting out NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and its impact on margins. This hit the large-cap tech sectors and weighed on indices before then hovering into the close. Oracle also sold off aggressively but closed off lows as several analysts were out defending the name, describing it as a buying opportunity. The downside in equities resulted in upside in T-notes, while gold had been pushing higher anyway, with futures hitting USD 4,000/oz. Gold did briefly move off highs, tracking other metals (silver and copper), but managed to reclaim the brief bout of weakness, while silver and copper did not. In FX, the Dollar climbed further, supported by a weaker Euro and Yen as the currencies continue to take a beating after the French PM resignation and Takachai winning the LDP leadership election. However, NZD underperformed ahead of RBNZ tonight, where market pricing is leaning towards a 50bps rate cut. Oil prices were choppy in thin news flow, ultimately settling flat. Data highlights saw the NY Fed SCE post higher inflation expectations in the one and five-year forecasts, while the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism index declined slightly – neither sparked a market reaction. Fed speak saw Miran continue to toe a dovish line while Kashkari appeared more concerned about inflation than the labour market. Elsewhere, the 3-year T-note auction was well received.
US
NY FED SCE: One and three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (prev. 3.2%) and to 3.0% (prev. 2.9%), respectively. The three-year-ahead inflation expectation was unchanged at 3.0%. Concerning labour, one-year ahead earnings growth expectations fell 0.1% to 2.4%, its lowest reading since April 2021. The mean probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now increased 2% to 41.1%, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose 0.4% to 14.9%, and the perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost rebounded from a series low of 44.9% in August to 47.4%. Regarding households, the expected growth in household income was unchanged at 2.9% (in line with TTM avg), while nominal household spending growth expectations fell 0.3% to 4.7%. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations deteriorated slightly, with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now. For stocks, the perceived probability that US stock prices will be higher 12 months from now jumped 0.9% to 39.8%.
RCM/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: The gauge of US consumer confidence slipped slightly in October to 48.3 from 48.7, marking two consecutive months below 50, signalling continued pessimism. The report also notes it is below the 297-month historical average of 49.2. Within the survey, investor confidence declined 2.0%, while non-investor confidence rose 1.2%. Meanwhile, the Personal Financial Outlook improved to 55.6 from 53.4. The Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined to 46.4 from 47.3. Looking ahead, the six-month economic outlook index fell to 42.8 from 45.5. It also highlights that the Financial-Related Stress Index fell to 63.3 from 65.3, noting that a reading above 50 signals increased stress. The last time it was sub-50 was in February 2020, before the COVID pandemic. Meanwhile, this month’s reading is above the 60.4 average since December 2007, signalling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average. Raghavan Mauyr, President of TechnoMetrica, which conducted the survey, said, ” Concerns about inflation and the impact of tariffs remain high, with food prices standing out as the leading economic worry.”
FED’S MIRAN: Miran remains optimistic going forward, citing the removal of uncertainty and a more sanguine inflation outlook than other Fed members. Miran believes average recent inflation should moderate and doesn’t see tariffs driving inflation by that much. Keep in mind, these are all well-known views of the Fed dove. Miran remarked on other known views, noting the real neutral rate is likely 0.5%, and he has a preference for policy to be forward-looking, given the lags of policy impact. Miran is optimistic the Fed will have the needed data by the October FOMC, but added that private data doesn’t fill the gap.
KASHKARI (2026 Voter): The Minneapolis Fed president says it is too soon to know if inflation will be sticky from tariffs, noting data is sending some stagflation signals. He is bullish on labour as workers have a very important role in the economy. He also said there is a lack of evidence supporting declarations of AI replacing workers. He believes it is far too soon to know the impact of AI on the economy. On rates, he reiterated that the Fed is committed to making decisions based on data and analysis, not political considerations. He is not convinced that a few rate cuts will translate to lower mortgage rates, and if the Fed were to drastically lower rates, he would expect the economy to have a burst of high inflation. Kashkari added that if there’s massive demand for investment in data centres, that will push up interest rates.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 9 TICKS HIGHER AT 112-21+
T-notes catch bid as risk sentiment sours. At settlement 2-year -0.2bps at 3.543%, 3-year -0.1bps at 3.555%, 5-year -0.8bps at 3.672%, 7-year -1.4bps at 3.861%, 10-year -1.9bps at 4.087%, 20-year -2.3bps at 4.656%, 30-year -2.1bps at 4.694%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +0.1bps at 3.216%, 3-year BEI -0.5bps at 2.668%, 5-year BEI -1.9bps at 2.406%, 10-year BEI -1.0bps at 2.320%, 30-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.235%.
THE DAY: T-notes saw mild pressure in the European morning to hit lows in the US morning before paring as US trade got underway. A flip into negative risk sentiment came after an article in The Information highlighted the challenge that data centre names have when renting out NVIDIA (NVDA) chips, weighing on the large-cap tech AI names. The downside in equities sparked bidding across the Treasury curve. There were also several Fed speakers around this time, with Governor Miran continuing to toe a dovish and optimistic line, while Kashkari appeared more concerned about inflation than the labour market. The data highlights were the NY Fed SCE and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism index. The NY Fed saw inflation expectations rise in the one-year and five-year, while unemployment expectations rose 2%, with the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year also rising by 0.4%, and the probability of finding a job in the next three months if the current job was lost rebounded to 47.4% from 44.9%. Meanwhile, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism saw a slight decline. The six-month outlook also dropped, the personal financial outlook improved, and confidence in federal economic policies fell. Attention then turned to the 3-year auction, which was well received (more below).
SUPPLY
Notes/Bonds
3-Year: Overall, a strong auction. The US Treasury sold USD 58bln of 3yr notes at a high yield of 3.576%, stopping through the when issued by 0.8bps, another sign of strong demand after the September offering, which saw a 0.7bps stop through. The bid-to-cover was not as high as last month’s, 2.66x vs September’s 2.73x, but was still above the six-auction average of 2.55x. Direct demand saw an improvement, rising to 26.58% from 17.4%, above the 20.5% average, while indirect demand fell to 62.7% from 74.2%, slightly below the six auction average of 64.1%. This left dealer participation at 10.72%, an increase from last month’s but not as high as the six-auction-average.
US Treasury to sell USD 39bln of 10yr notes on Oct 8th and USD 22bln in 30yr bonds on Oct 9th; all to settle October 15th; sizes all as expected
Bills
- US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 4.000%, B/C 2.69x
- US to sell USD 95bln of 8-week bills (prev. 90bln), to sell USD 69bln of 17-week bills (prev. 67bln) on October 8th; to sell USD 110bln of 4-week bills (prev. 105bln); all to settle on October 14th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 24bps), Dec 45bps (prev. 45bps), January 55bps (prev. 56bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 5bln (prev. 22bln) across 16 counterparties (prev. 19)
- EFFR at 4.09% (prev. 4.09%), volumes at USD 84bln (prev. 95bln) on October 6th.
- SOFR at 4.15% (prev. 4.18%), volumes at USD 2.981tln (prev. 3.018tln) on October 6th.
- Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support, 10-20yr, max. USD 2bln): Accepts USD 2bln of 30bln offered; Offer to cover 15x (prev. 12x), accepts 2 out of 32 eligible issues.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.04 HIGHER AT 61.73/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.02 LOWER AT 65.45/BBL
Crude prices take a breather after a two-day bounce, settling flat. WTI and Brent saw a gradual decline through the day with choppy trade in between, experiencing large swings at times despite light newsflow, before paring losses into settlement. Energy updates include a marginal rise to ADNOC’s November crude OSP at USD 70.22/bbl (prev. 70.10/bbl). Meanwhile, the EIA STEO saw the 2025 world oil demand forecast raised, but the 2026 forecast was maintained. WTI and Brent’s intraday range are as follows: USD 60.72-62.04/bbl and 64.53-65.84/bbl, respectively. Separately, and what may arouse geopolitical/trade conflicts in the future, traders selling Russian oil recently began seeking payment in CNY from Indian state refiners, according to Reuters, citing sources. On geopolitics, Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Al-Mardaw said, “President Trump’s plan is mainly an Israeli plan”…” The resistance will not accept an agreement that does not end the war or one that can represent a reversal of the rights of the Palestinian people”. Nonetheless, oil prices were unreactive to geopolitical developments, as focus turns to the Private Inventory data after the US close. Expectations (bbls): Crude +1.9mln, Distillate -1.2mln, Gasoline -0.9mln.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.38% at 6,715, NDX -0.55% at 24,840, DJI -0.20% at 46,603, RUT -1.12% at 2,458
SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary -1.43%, Communication Services -0.73%, Industrials -0.57%, Technology -0.52%, Materials -0.29%, Real Estate -0.29%, Health +0.08%, Financials +0.14%, Energy +0.14%, Utilities +0.42%, Consumer Staples +0.86%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.33% at 5,610, Dax 40 +0.04% at 24,389, FTSE 100 +0.05% at 9,484, CAC 40 +0.04% at 7,975, FTSE MIB -0.17% at 43,071, IBEX 35 -0.19% at 15,527, PSI -0.75% at 8,117, SMI -0.16% at 12,531, AEX -0.64% at 961
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Oracle (ORCL) is banking on bigger revenue to offset profit margin decreases. The Information reports that internal data shows the financial challenge of renting out Nvidia (NVDA) chips. The Information says previously undisclosed data on Oracle AI cloud business points to an industry-wide challenge. “Internal documents show the fast-growing cloud business has had razor-thin gross profit margins in the past year or so, lower than what many equity analysts have estimated”. Following the report, Mizuho analyst Panigrahi reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Oracle with a USD 350 PT, viewing today’s share decline after The Information article on AI margins as a buying opportunity.
- Tesla (TSLA): Website showed standard RWD Model Y in the US is priced at USD 39,990 with range of 321 miles (EPA est.); Standard RWD Model 3 in the US is priced at USD 36,990 with 321 Miles (EPA est.); Standard Model Y and Model 3 open for orders immediately; many location show deliveries between December 2025 and January 2026.
- US DoE reportedly mulling revoking up to USD 1.1bln in grants for General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA), via a document cited by Reuters.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): Ex-FDA regulator Peter Marks reportedly joins Eli-Lilly (LLY), via STAT News
- International Business Machines (IBM): Announced partnership with Anthropic.
- Dell (DELL): Raised outlook on long-term annual revenue growth and reaffirmed FY outlook for Q3 and FY26.
- AMD (AMD): Upgraded at Jefferies with new USD 300 PT after OpenAI deal.
- Constellation Brands (STZ): Top & bottom line beat.
- IREN (IREN): Signed additional multi-year cloud services contracts.
- Trilogy Metals (TMQ): US to take 10% stake in TMQ.
- Hudbay Minerals (HBM): Resumed operations at the Constancia mine in Peru.
- James Hardie (JHX): Q2 guidance topped expectations.
- Netflix (NFLX): Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Seaport Research.
- Dollar Tree (DLTR): Downgraded at Jefferies to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Hold’.
- GE HealthCare (GEHC): Downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Citi.
FX
The Dollar broadly strengthened against G10 peers. The continuation of the US government shutdown is failing to have a lasting impact on USD, as perhaps continued USD selling needs a new catalyst to move lower, namely, the largely absent US data. NY FED SCE saw an uptick in the one-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations, while the perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost rebounded somewhat from a series low. Separately, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism fell in October. The day saw multiple Fed speakers. Governor Miran continues to have a sanguine outlook on inflation, while 2026 voter Kashkari cautioned on tariffs impact on inflation, and is not convinced that a few rate cuts will translate to lower mortgage rates. DXY now hovers around 98.6 from earlier 98.125 lows.
G10FX was entirely sold against the USD, with JPY extending on the Takiachi/LDP-infused weakness seen on Monday. USD/JPY broke above the March 150.21 high, hitting peaks of 151.93. NZD was also offered ahead of the RBNZ rate decision overnight. As it stands, 46% of a 25bps RBNZ cut is priced in by money markets while the remaning 54% prices in a 50bps rate cut. Participants will then eye the statement for any clues on policy and if the central bank will continue to lower rates to below its previously projected trough of around 2.50%. Click here for the full RNBZ Newsquawk Preview.
In Europe, German Industrial Orders fell less than expected in August, -0.8% (exp. 1.1%, prev. -2.9%, rev. -2.7%). Destatis writes that “The negative development in new orders in the manufacturing sector in August 2025 is primarily due to the significant decline in new orders in the automotive industry (seasonally and calendar-adjusted -6.4% compared to the previous month).” EUR/USD now trades at ~1.1660, while EUR/GBP was marginally lower at ~0.8680.
EMFX: Argentina reportedly has spent at least USD 1.5bln over six days defending the ARS, Bloomberg writes. USD/ARS was little changed on the day. Elsewhere, HUF saw notable underperformance amongst CEE peers amid government pressure to cut rates despite the NBH standing firm on its tight policy view. Hungary’s Economy Minister sounded similar to PM Orbán on Monday, calling the base rate too high and saying that the NBH could ease and meet its inflation target. Meanwhile, Hungarian Industrial Output saw a notable decline.
DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
This will hurt and they tariff importing aluminum
(zerohedge)
Ford Shares Hammered On Report Aluminum Plant Fire May Disrupt Ford F-150 Production
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 11:30 AM
A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor’s F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.
The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced.
The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.
Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months.
WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill’s closure are widespread:
Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.
Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident “represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that’s the aluminum that comes out of Oswego.” He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150’s exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago.
“Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” a Ford spokesperson stated.
Novelis, owned by India’s Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.
This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford’s upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains.
END
A celebration of the murder of 1200 souls?
(zerohedge)
Trump World Tower, Israeli Consulate In NYC Listed As “Protest Targets” Tomorrow
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 08:40 PM
Two years after the October 7, 2023, attacks that plunged Gaza into war, the Trump administration is pushing forward with a Gaza ceasefire plan that began with indirect talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators on Monday evening. According to CNN, the two sides are expected to continue meeting over the next few days with mediators from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey present.
The second anniversary of the attack on Israel by Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups is tomorrow, and there’s an early indication that pro-Palestinian protesters could mobilize in New York City, Manhattan Institute analyst Stu Smith wrote on X.
Smith wrote on X that the front group “Behind Enemy Lines” released targets across New York City, including “businesses tied to the President’s family, Democratic offices, major universities, consulates, Jewish organizations, and even private companies.”
“No business as usual. Escalate for Gaza,” read the flyer that the Manhattan Institute analyst posted on X.
On the group’s website, it emphasized, “The empire is the enemy. From the belly of the beast, we choose to resist it.”
There is a lot of Marxist undertones on the site, and it’s not necessarily about helping poor Palestinians, but in fact used as a cover for their ultimate aim to destroy the U.S. from within.
“On the second anniversary of the Al-Aqsa flood, Behind Enemy Lines is calling on everyone to escalate for Gaza and shut down business as usual,” the website continued.
Civil terrorism expert Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising provides insight into Behind Enemy Lines and how it aligns with the rise of leftist political violence:
Behind Enemy Lines qualifies as an anarchist group IMO, because they have done very little outside from advocating for political violence. At least with ‘social justice’ or ‘racial justice’ advocacy groups, they can (and do) qualify for tax-exempt status (which they then abuse), but Behind Enemy Lines didn’t even do that. They have a donation link through GiveButter.com, a website often used to raise money for anarchist groups and their bail funds.
While it is hard for the public to tell how dangerous Behind Enemy Lines is, their recent campaign of providing maps of targets to “Escalate for Gaza” on October 7th is a cause of major concern to everyone on that list, including Trump Tower, the Jewish National Fund, and Senator Chuck Schumer, whose home is listed in the map.
Behind Enemy Lines draws its framework from a revolutionary following, and these lists provide targets and encourage action against them.
Given the country’s recent escalations of political violence, including the assassination of Charlie Kirk and incidents at ICE facilities, Behind Enemy Lines knows exactly what they are doing. One of the things that the public needs to understand is that the process of being induced into political violence perfectly mirrors the way martyrs are convinced to participate in Islamic terrorism.
Step one is being introduced to this worldview. Step two is believing it. Step three is believing that political (or Islamic) violence is the answer. Step four is participating in political violence.
The majority of America’s radical left pro-Palestine groups and anarchist groups are all in phase three and increasingly participating in stage four. Hundreds of these organizations and activists are openly calling for escalations of violence against the West, both at protests and onto social media megaphones, just hoping someone will respond to their call to action and commit the political violence they are calling for.
Also, given what I know about them (from seeing them in person), Beyond Enemy Lines members include students, faculty, and ordinary members, making it harder to define than a nonprofit or explicit student group.
Yet more left-wing groups are hiding under popular causes such as Palestine, BLM, and climate activism – all sharing one very similar goal: they hate capitalism, despise the West and Christianity, and, most importantly, want to collapse America from within by sowing chaos.
To counter this radical leftist movement, the Trump administration is organizing a task force to “dismantle” these groups.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 7, 2025 Issue 7592 | Independent View of the News |
| Global inflation angst soared on Monday with the election of pro-stimulus politician Takaichi to head Japan’s LDP and soon become prime minister. Mr. Market fears inflate or die from debt deflation. Gold hit 3970.08 (+83.54); Dec Gold hit 3994.50 (+85.60). USZs declined as much as 25/32. The DJIA was -331.32 (low) at 10:09 ET. The DJTA was – 148.67 the NY Fang+ Index was -73.78 at 9:43 ET; but the Naz 100 was +188 near 10:20 ET due to AMD’s monster rally (+37.7% on NYSE open) and the last refuge of hope for equities: AI delusions. OpenAI Inks AMD Chips Deal Worth Tens of Billions of Dollars – BBG OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD graphics processing units over multiple years and have the ability to buy as many as 160 million shares of AMD at a penny apiece… Figma’s stock pops as much as 16% after OpenAI CEO Altman touts ChatGPT integration https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/06/figma-stock-pops-15percent-after-openai-ceo-altman-touts-chatgpt-integration.html @NonsenseIsland: Maybe the Looney Tunes short most relevant to our times: 1956’s TO HARE IS HUMAN, in which Wile E. Coyote creates a computer to think for him and slavishly obeys everything it tells him to do, no matter how self-destructive. https://t.co/lG2pezW394 Senator Grassley Asks Federal Judges If AI Used for Rulings – BBG Law Two federal judges are facing congressional inquiries for issuing orders that contained made-up citations and drove speculation they used AI tools…they issued orders over the summer that contained several made-up elements… https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/senator-grassley-asks-federal-judges-if-they-used-ai-for-rulings Details Leak on OpenAI’s Secretive Wearable Device, Plagued by Major Issues The company faces computational constraints that limit the device’s capabilities. More unexpectedly, internal debates over the assistant’s behavioral characteristics have become a major sticking point… Earlier iterations of its AI models developed reputations for being excessively agreeable. The AI giant also worries about scenarios where the assistant enters repetitive loops during routine activities, which would be about as useful as a GPS that keeps recalculating the same route… legal complications further cloud the project’s prospects… challenging OpenAI’s use of the “io” branding… https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/details-leak-openais-secretive-wearable-device-plagued-major-issues Tesla Shares Jump (as much as 4.7%) on Cryptic Post Teasing Product Unveiling – BBG The posts included a video clip with a spinning object and a Tesla logo, and a photo of a car in darkness with only its headlights visible… (Yet most people see NO signs of a bubble!) Mattel Jumps to Session-High +5.9% (at 14:01 ET) During OpenAI Event– BBG ESZs opened moderately high on Sunday night and rallied to 6787.50 (+23.00) at 0:42 ET. After an A-B-C retrenchment to 6771.75 at 3:41 ET, ESZ jumped to a double top of 6793.75 at 6:53 ET and 6794.00 (+30.00) at 8:10 ET. Traders unloaded; ESZs sank to a daily low of 6766.50 (+2.50) at 10:09 ET. The usual suspects eagerly bought the NYSE opening drop; ESZs intractably rallied to 6791.75 at 112:58 ET. After a flag consolidation that ended at 13:19 ET, ESZ hit a new high of 6797.75 at 14:35 ET due to the mind-addling AI hype gushing from the OpenAI soiree. ESZs then rolled over and fell to 6787.00 at 15:59 ET. Trump: Beginning November 1st, 2025, all Medium and Heavy-Duty trucks coming into the United States from other Countries will be Tariffed at the Rate of 25%. Positive aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index had a record high close and the Naz 100 soared on the latest AI fantasies and hype. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals soared; gold hit another new high. USZs declined as much as 25/32 and were -21/32 at the NYSE close. The DJIA declined 63.31. Gasoline soared; oil rallied smartly. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much more will the AI Bubble inflate? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6735.86 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6749.52; 6717.78 The WaPo admits that Obamacare is a bust and is unaffordable – and Dems want the GOP to bailout the costly scheme by extending costly ($350B over next decade) Covid-era insurance subsidies. WaPo: “The real problem is that the Affordable Care Act was never actually affordable… The architects of the program assumed that risk pools would be bigger than they turned out to be…” https://x.com/mkhammer/status/1975202719641317509 Trump Eyes Health Care Talks with Democrats to End Shutdown – BBG 16:42 ET Trump said he would negotiate with Democrats over health care subsidiaries… NYT: Trump Blinks, Saying for First Time He’s Willing to Negotiate on Shutdown After MAGA/GOP outrage at DJT, he amended his stance: Trump Open to Health Care Talks But Wants Government Opened First – BBG 18:57 ET @SenateGOP: There’s a big “No Kings” rally in Washington on October 18. Democrats are scared of their own radical left-wing base, so their secret plan is to keep the government closed until after this rally. Meanwhile, poor moms will struggle to feed their kids and our troops will go without pay. It’s time for Chuck Schumer to stop the political games. https://x.com/SenateGOP/status/1975327593592455374 Ex-GOP Rep @DerrickEvans4WV: CDC just changed its recommendation & now says toddlers should NOT get the chickenpox vaccine in combination with the MMR vaccine all at once. The CDC also RESCINDED the recommendation that all adults receive COVID boosters. @DiedSuddenly_: RFK Jr. explains how the Hepatitis B vax was added to the CDC vaccine schedule: “Merck went to the agencies and said you told us to develop this vaccine. Nobody’s buying it. CDC said don’t worry, we’ll just recommend it for children. We’ll force everybody to buy it.” https://t.co/3WkleFiVDA @ChildrensHD: OSHA Admits It Told Healthcare Employers Not to Report COVID Vaccine Injuries – “So as not to discourage vaccination, employers are not required to record instances of adverse events to vaccinations on the OSHA 300 log effective through May 2022,” the directive stated… https://x.com/ChildrensHD/status/1975247666906075302 Story time! We worked for a gold bug in 1975. Then, South African gold stocks were the rage (Kloof, Harmony, Durban Deep, Buffelsfontein, West Driefontein, East Driefontein, President Steyn, etc.) Fast forward 3+ decades: We met with the CIO of a mutual fund complex that had gold in a funds; and it was performing well. He tells us that he loaded up on GLD (Gold SPDR) but when he read the prospectus, it effectively said that ‘if it hits the fan,’ the ETF does not guarantee gold delivery. He retorted to us, ‘the only reason I own this is in case it hits the fan.’ So, he called up a top broker and asked them to perform an Exchange for Physical (EFP): his GLD for physical gold. The top broker told him there was no way they could procure enough physical gold to do the size of the EFP that he requested. He quickly reasoned that it is imperative that he did the EFP. He told the firm to proceed incrementally. For eons, we slowly bought and stored physical AU. After Covid, we put GLD and GDX in our IRA. ~4 months ago, a rep from the firm holding our IRA told us that compliance needed to warn me that the IRA was overconcentrated in gold. By last week, the percentage of gold-related assets was over 50%. It is time to readjust the holdings because if gold is to rally substantially from here, ‘it might be hitting the fan’ and physical gold could be preferable to paper gold risks. GLD SPDR: Can an Investor Take Physical Possession of the Gold Backing His/Her Shares of SPDR® Gold Trust? The Trustee of the Trust, The Bank of New York Mellon, does not deal directly with the public. The Trustee handles creation and redemption of the orders for the Trust’s shares with Authorized Participants, who deal in blocks of 100,000 SPDR® Gold Shares (each a “Creation Unit”). An individual investor wishing to exchange the Trust’s shares for physical gold would have to come to the appropriate arrangements with his or her broker and an Authorized Participant… https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/faqs/#q8 Google AI Mode: Owning shares of GLD does not equate to owning actual physical gold. This is very important for potential investors to understand. Although the fund is based on gold and holds gold and/or cash as its only assets, shareholders are not guaranteed to receive physical gold in exchange for their shares… Retail investors cannot redeem for physical gold. This is a critical distinction from owning the metal directly. Shareholders sell their shares on the open market, just like selling a stock. Redemption is restricted to “Authorized Participants.” This is a small group of large financial institutions that deposit gold with the trust to create new shares or redeem shares for physical gold. Moral of the story: Make sure you understand the risks of paper gold vehicles! It is imperative to watch how gold reacts if ‘they’ shoot for the number and get AU to $4k. GOP Sen. @ChuckGrassley: This document shows the Biden FBI spied on 8 of my Republican Senate colleagues during its Arctic Frost investigation into “election conspiracy” Arctic Frost later became Jack Smith’s elector case against Trump. BIDEN FBI WEAPONIZATION = WORSE THAN WATERGATE https://x.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1975297712712262100 GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Biden’s Stasi who claimed to be saving “our sacred democracy” in fact worked overtime to destroy it… They spied on Catholic churches, prosecuted pro-lifers, deployed the FBI against parents at school board meetings – and tried to tap the phones of their political enemies. Including mine. This is an abuse of power beyond Watergate… that directly strikes at the Constitution, the separation of powers, and the First Amendment. We need a full investigation of all involved: who knew about it, who ordered it, and who approved it. Anyone and everyone who violated the law must be prosecuted. The way to save the country is to restore the rule of law. Are the protests and demonstrations in big blue cities a tactic to divert DoJ and Republicans’ attention and efforts from investigating and prosecuting Team Obama-Biden astounding abuses of power? @Heminator: So to recap, Democrats weaponized the TSA to harass Tulsi Gabbard and Republican Congressmen and we just learned the FBI was spying on eight Republican senators… but something something Trump is an authoritarian? @HansMahn>and MACD are positive – a close below 6421.22 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6653.41 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6715.50 triggers a sell signal @ByronYork: Deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes’ gets 78% support. ‘Deporting all immigrants who are here illegally’ gets 56% support. On this issue, the minority is making all the noise. https://x.com/ByronYork/status/1975294831107940498 IL Gov Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Johnson sued to halt the imposition of National Guard forces. Mayor Johnson is trying to usurp federal law by creating ICE-free Zones in Chicago. The Second US Civil War is escalating into something very ugly. Chicago Tribune’s @byaliceyin: Mayor Brandon Johnson at press conference condemns ICE teargassing CPD (total lie) over the weekend: “Let me be clear. Tear gassing women and men who serve as Chicago Police Department officers is not how we make our city safer. I’m calling for a full investigation into this incident.” “We need ICE out of our city … ICE lies, and people die.” Announces he is signing executive order establishing “ICE-free zones” prohibiting city property and private businesses being used as staging grounds… Q: What do you mean by take more dramatic action against Trump admin? Johnson: “Everything, meaning everything, whatever is necessary to ensure that we’re protecting people.” Q: Are CPD going to be responsible for enforcing these ICE free zones? Johnson doesn’t answer: “As I said before, it’s not just policing … Everyone is responsible. For the private businesses, I’m encouraging many of them to volunteer to be part of the collective action.” Q: Next steps to fight National Guard deployment? Johnson: “Our Corporate counsel has been in constant communication with our AG … A couple of years ago, I said very candidly that the right wing in this country wants a rematch of the Civil War. I just I want that to set in.” https://x.com/byaliceyin/status/1975211359769145570 @TheRiftTV: Former ICE Director Jonathan Fahey responded to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s latest executive order, which sets up zones where ICE activities are restricted. “It violates two federal laws. One is the alien harboring law… he specifically says that’s the purpose of it.” “It’s also a violation of federal obstruction because it’s to impede federal agents. So, the big fun irony of his executive order is that it violates federal law and it’s also unenforceable on its terms under the supremacy clause.” https://x.com/TheRiftTV/status/1975291897594757530 Feds: Latin Kings leader put out $10,000 hit on ICE commander in Chicago https://cwbchicago.com/2025/10/feds-latin-kings-leader-put-out-10000-hit-on-ice-commander-in-chicago.html Hours later, Chicago Polic Chief Larry Snelling directly contradicted Chicago Mayor Johnson. @bennyjohnson: Chicago PD Superintendent delivers a brutal warning to Antifa: Threaten law enforcement, and they will not hesitate to use deadly force… “Federal agents, ICE, HSI, are officers. They are agents of law enforcement.” “When you plow into a vehicle that contains law enforcement agents, you’re using deadly force. And they can use deadly force in response to stop you.” “If you box them in with vehicles, it is reasonable for them to believe that they are being ambushed and that this could end in a deadly situation. And it’s reasonable for them to use force based on those conditions.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1975280076003348967 Fox: A federal judge declines to block President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois. Trump is also labeling anti-government protests as “insurrection,” saying he might invoke the Insurrection Act (If govs or judges interfere). https://x.com/SpecialReport/status/1975321581267394810 @TheTonus: California, Oregon, and Illinois are just like the Confederacy in the last Civil War, but every person has a mental illness & a bong instead of a rifle. @VDHanson: Reactionary, Neo-Confederate Portland The Democratic Party apparat knows that the public wants both secure borders and deportations of illegal aliens. Indeed, in part, it lost an election by its open-borders advocacy. But Democrat officials feel that if street thugs like Antifa can surround and besiege ICE facilities in Portland, Oregon, then deportations will stop. Then, a de facto amnesty will follow for millions who entered the U.S. illegally—and will soon become Democratic constituents. As a result, they do not fully enforce the law when thugs attack federal law enforcement. Antifa and its spin-off groups favor the night, when they try to block all entries and exits of ICE vehicles and personnel, and can commit their violence with greater anonymity… Summed up: the city of Portland’s armed officers are in a de facto proxy war with their federal counterparts—in our version of something out of 1860, on the eve of a real civil war… America for almost 200 years has already decided, in formal law and court rulings, that no local or state entity can disrupt the enforcement of federal laws or usurp Washington’s powers. To do so with impunity would unravel the American nation in short order…. Both Antifa and the appeasing Oregon officials are our new neo-Confederate secessionists. They feel that their states are now autonomous entities that are still entitled to federal money but not obligated to follow federal laws… https://victorhanson.com/reactionary-neo-confederate-portland/ @WarClandestine: The Dems are behaving VERY similarly to the Confederates in the 1860’s. They are trying to preserve their slave-class and are defying federal authority, and thus the Constitution. They are openly engaged in a literal treasonous/seditious insurrection. History repeats. Chicago Teachers Union member lays out plan for undermining ICE, protecting illegals When ICE is spotted…schools maybe go on lockdown but also people are making sure that kids get home. https://www.deported.news/news/exclusive-chicago-teachers-union-member-lays-out-plan-for-undermining-ice-protecting-illegals/ Trump appealing ruling against Portland National Guard deployment, judge ‘untethered in reality’: White House (DJT said he doesn’t know the judge, even though he nominated her!) https://trib.al/euG03qF @Daily_MailUS: Woke San Francisco judge set to grant early release to 91-time felon just five years after he killed two women while high on meth https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15166443/troy-mcalister-release-san-francisco-killed-women.html Virginia Democrat gubernatorial nominee worked at Saudi school known for Hamas links, jihadi grads – Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic hopeful for Virginia governor, leans heavily on her CIA credentials when running for office. But her stint at the Islamic Saudi Academy has been a source of controversy in her prior races… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/spanberger-worked-saudi-government-school-known-hamas-links-jihadi-grads The Supreme Court refused to hear Ghislaine Maxwell’s appeal of her convictions. This means she must blab if she wants a pardon or commutation. Male bus driver who goes by ‘Ms Sharon’ charged with sexually abusing multiple boys He is accused of assaulting at least four boys age 14 and 15 years old, but officials said there could be more victims… Tate drove school buses for the Sugar Creek Charter School in Charlotte (NC)… https://nypost.com/2025/10/05/us-news/male-bus-driver-who-goes-by-ms-sharon-charged-with-sexually-abusing-multiple-boys/ GOP @SenatorBanks: The 2020 Census was a fraud. The Biden admin used a shady “privacy” formula that scrambled the data and miscounted 14 states. It included illegal immigrants and handed Democrats extra seats. Americans deserve a fair count and I’m fighting to fix it. https://x.com/SenatorBanks/status/1975242153942020548 @burackbobby_: After Stephen A. said he is considering running for president as a Democrat, ESPN gave him a 5-year, $100 million contract that also allows him to appear on cable news to promote his ambitions. Finebaum says he might run for senate as a Republican and ESPN punishes him. @ClayTravis: The decision to pull @finebaum from @espn also follows the recent @jimmykimmel controversy on Disney owned ABC. Kimmel was returned to air after a four-day suspension. The left wing rallied around Kimmel’s free speech rights in that case. Will they rally for @finebaum as well? A story in five parts: 1. Finebaum does interview with me, infuriating his bosses. 2. They pull him off his scheduled hits. 3. I tweet they did this. 4. Moron PR exec says it isn’t true. 5. Moron PR exec gets moron “reporter” to say Finebaum is back Tuesday after immense blowback. Trump suspiciously screwed up the Epstein List Affair and raised more suspicions about on Monday after he responded to a question from CNN’s Kaitlyn Collins about a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell with: “I can say this‚ that I’d have to take a look at it. I would have to take a look. I will speak to the DoJ…” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-he-will-talk-to-doj-about-maxwell-pardon-says-diddy-asked-for-one/ar-AA1NYwqC?ocid=BingNewsSerp Gallup: Perceived Importance of College Hits New Low – The percentage of Americans saying college is “very important” has fallen to 35%… The initial decline — between 2013 and 2019 — in the percentage rating college as very important was steeper among 18- to 34-year-olds than among older adults. However, since then, the rates among older adults have plunged, so that now only about a third of all age groups say a college education is very important… https://news.gallup.com/poll/695003/perceived-importance-college-hits-new-low.aspx Who would have ever thought that spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on gender studies, art history, liberal arts, and social science degrees would not translate into a good job! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Biden and his Merry Men are absolute crooks
(zerohedge)
‘Arctic Frost’: Bombshell Memo Exposes Biden FBI Spying On GOP Senators
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025 – 08:20 AM
An FBI document obtained by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) shows that the FBI, under Joe Biden, spied on 8 Republican senators as part of its Arctic Frost investigation.
The revelation that the FBI snooped on the phone records of Republican members of Congress during its January 6 investigation is bringing greater scrutiny to then-FBI Director Christopher Wray, during whose tenure the bureau effort occurred, and to then-Special Counsel Jack Smith, who was leading the Biden Justice Department’s investigation into Donald Trump.
The once-secret FBI record, dated late September 2023, has the title of “CAST Assistance” – a likely reference to the bureau’s cellular analysis survey team.
The case ID for the record is “ARCTIC FROST – Election Law Matters – SENSITIVE INVESTIGATIVE MATTER — CAST.”
As American Greatness reports, Grassley said the 2023 investigation, which formed the basis of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s elector case against President Trump, targeted 8 GOP Senators’ personal cell phones for “tolling data” tracking their use between January 4 and January 7, 2021.
According to a press release from the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary, the FBI targeted 8 GOP Senators, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) as well as Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA).
In that press release, Grassley stated, “Based on the evidence to-date, Arctic Frost and related weaponization by federal law enforcement under Biden was arguably worse than Watergate.”
Grassley added, “What I’ve uncovered today is disturbing and outrageous political conduct by the Biden FBI. The FBI’s actions were an unconstitutional breach, and Attorney General Bondi and Director Patel need to hold accountable those involved in this serious wrongdoing.”
The FBI’s Arctic Frost investigation began in April 2022 by former agent Timothy Thibault and was assigned to Special Counsel Jack Smith in November 2022.
Whistleblower disclosure obtained earlier this year revealed the FBI, with personal assistance from officials in the Biden White House, also obtained the government cell phones of President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence as part of the investigation.
Just last month, Grassley released records showing that 92 Republican-linked individuals and groups like Turning Point USA were also scrutinized by the FBI as part of the Arctic Frost investigation.
Grassley noted that he has been working with whistleblowers since July 2022 and stated, “It’s taken years to get records and advance my investigation, but what the public is seeing now demonstrates the importance of congressional oversight and whistleblowers. My whistleblowers deserve great thanks for what they’ve helped expose. None of this would have been known without them.”
Patel tweeted on Monday that “we recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes” and “that abuse of power ends now.”
HUMOUR
Sen. Kennedy Just Exposed More Absurd Things Democrats Shut Down The Government For
Monday, Oct 06, 2025 – 10:00 PM
Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,
The Schumer Shutdown dragged through the weekend, with neither side budging. Republicans pushed for a straightforward continuing resolution to keep the government funded through November, but Democrats chose to hold the line for their wish list of radical spending priorities—billions and billions of dollars’ worth—and in doing so, shut the government down. The media has focused on their demand for free health care for illegal immigrants, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot more buried in this standoff that isn’t getting the attention it deserves.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) took to the Senate floor this week and laid out, in his trademark blunt and hilarious fashion, exactly what Democrats are trying to shut the government down over—and it’s every bit as ridiculous as you’d expect.
“Basically, President Trump just said, ‘We want you to take some stuff out of the budget that we think is wasteful,’” Kennedy began. “And we did — and that upset the congresswoman.”
That “congresswoman,” of course, is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who, according to Kennedy, went ballistic when Trump and congressional Republicans started cutting some of the more absurd Biden-era spending priorities.
Kennedy didn’t hold back as he read aloud what Democrats are fighting to restore.
“We found that under President Biden, they were spending $3 million for circumcisions and vasectomies in Zambia,” he said. “We took that out. The congresswoman says, ‘We’re gonna shut down government until you put that back in.’”
And that was just the beginning.
“We found $500,000 of American taxpayer money for electric buses in Rwanda,” Kennedy continued.
“We found $3.6 million for pastry cooking classes and dance focus groups for male prostitutes in Haiti. I kid you not. I’m not making this up. It was in the budget under President Biden.”
Kennedy went on to rattle off even more examples of this insanity:
- $6 million for media organizations for the Palestinians.
- $833,000 for transgender people in Nepal.
- $300,000 for a pride parade in Lesotho.
- $882,000 for social media mentorship in Serbia.
- $4.2 million for LGBTQI people in the Western Balkans and Uganda.
Do you think we should be funding that nonsense?
Republicans, Kennedy noted, stripped out each of these items as they tried to rein in wasteful foreign spending. But Democrats—with AOC and the “socialist wing” of the party leading the way—are threatening to shut the government down until every last one of those absurd expenditures is put back in.
“I could spend the rest of the afternoon here,” Kennedy said. “We took all that out. It upset Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez. It upset the socialist wing of her party. And now they’re threatening all other Democrats and saying, ‘You’ve got to shut that government down until we get what we want.’”
And that, Kennedy concluded, is what this entire budget fight is about—not defending American taxpayers or funding core government services, but holding the government hostage over millions in woke pet projects and bizarre international handouts.
The Schumer Shutdown didn’t happen by accident—it’s the result of Democrats choosing their woke agenda over citizens. Chuck Schumer made his priorities clear, and now the American people are paying the price.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
