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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,108.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/13/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/15/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 213
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 304
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 250
323 C HSBC 166
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 653
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1543
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 209
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 250 1886
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 27
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 20 20
880 H CITIGROUP 27
905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 2,789 2,789
MONTH TO DATE: 42,038
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 2789 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 278,900 OZ or 8.645 TONNES
total notices so far: 42.038 contracts for 4,203,800 OR 130.755 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 367 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.835 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5608 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.040 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 28.515 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
30.625 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 53.255 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 28.515 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 30.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH A RECORD SETTING MONSTER 9.564 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY 33.009 TONNES QUEUE JUMPING FOR OCT. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 111.885 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 170 CONTRACTS OI TO 171,132 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1800 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1800 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1330 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 170 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE MONSTER 1880 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1630 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $1.78 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.150 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.78 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.27 POINTS OR 0.62%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 448.41 PTS OR 1.73%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1214.48 PTS OR 2.58% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1390// OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1431/ Oil DOWN TO 59.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1390 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1431 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4631 CONTRACTS TO 485,352 OI WITH OUR MONSTER GAIN IN PRICE OF $129.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5106). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 6681 CONTRACTS (OR 20.78 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 11.353 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 5 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 5 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 5 OCCASIONS FOR 3650 CONTRACTS OR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN FINALLY OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 126.5 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6680 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3927 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN YESTERDAY DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD. WITH MUCH FAILURES. THIS BRINGS US TO YESTERDAY’S MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS. ONE SHOULD EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO OUR LONGS. SHOCKINGLY AS YOU WILL SEE, ON A NET BASIS NOBODY LEFT EITHER ARENA, GOLD AND SILVER.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCT 1 AND OCT 2 AND NOW OCT 9 THROUGH 10TH AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN OCTOBER AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES, THEN OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP, OCT 9 HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP, OCT 10 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 7.504 CONTRACTS(250,900 OZ//7.504 TONNES) AND THEN OCT 13: 4.3919 TONNES// AND THEN OCT 14 WITH A RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 5 ISSUANCES IS 3650 CONTRACTS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 243 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST RECORD SETTING OCT 14 QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 WHICH FOLLOWED PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 33.009 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 3,650 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 5 OCCASIONS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMPING;
E) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
F) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
G) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
J) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
144.959 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 5106 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5106 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 5106 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5106 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW A TEMPER TANTRUM. THEY THREE ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCTO 10 AND THAT FAILED AND FROM THAT POINT GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED SIZED 3927 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 5 ISSUANCES FOR 11.383 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE THE GREEN LIGHT ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPOS IN OCT OF 33.009 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A MONSTER $129.00./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 6681 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY OCT 7, WE WITNESSED FOR NO REASON A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION IN PRICE OF OUR GOLD EQUITY SHARES LIKE AGNICO EAGLE AND BARRICK GOLD /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 20.78 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, DESPITE THE RAID, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 144.959 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR MONSTER GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $26.00
WE HAD A FAIR 475 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6681 CONTRACTS OR 668,100 0Z (20.78 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 14
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entries i) out of Stonex: 64,360.400 oz total withdrawal: 64,360.400 oz or 2.00 tonnes . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2789 notice(s) 278,900 OZ 8.645 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 903 contracts 90,300 OZ 2.808 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 42,038 notices 4,203,800 oz 130.755 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
1 entries
i) out of Stonex: 64,360.400 oz
total withdrawal: 64,360.400 oz or 2.00 tonnes
ADJUSTMENTs 5
dealer to customer
i)Asahi 9535,714 oz
ii) Brinks: 578.718 oz
iii) HSBC 9573.086 oz
iv) Malca: 23,245.584 oz
v) Manfra 4147.479 oz
volume at the comex: MONDAY: 333,736 oz (HUGE)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 3692 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1540 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 1535 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 3075 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 307,500 OZ OR 9.564 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS NOW BECOMES THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY BARELY EDGING OUT LAST YEAR’S 9.4 TONNE RECORD. THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 133.614 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 144.954 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 169 CONTRACTS UP TO 3714 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 1743 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 373,931 CONTRACTS.
We had 2789 contracts filed for today representing 278,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 250 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2789 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 1886 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (42,038 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 3692 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2789 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,294,100 OZ OR 133.606 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (42,038 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (3692 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2789 x 100 oz) which equals 4,294,100 OZ OR 133.606 TONNES + 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 144.959 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 144.959 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,957,498.686 oz 60.860 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,660,679.804 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,374,292.858 or 664.83 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,286,386.946OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,941,679. oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 603,94 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 13 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) Out of Asahi 3,113,408.610 oz ii) Out of Brinks: 600,876.730 oz iii) Out of CNT: 251,264.526 oz iv) Out of Delaware 10,897.716 oz v) Out of Malca 583,346.400 oz total withdrawal 4,559,793.482 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 367 CONTRACT(S) ( 1.835 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 94 contracts (0.4700 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5608 Contracts (28.040 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 entries
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withdrawals: customer side/eligible
5 entries
i) Out of Asahi 3,113,408.610 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 600,876.730 oz
iii) Out of CNT: 251,264.526 oz
iv) Out of Delaware 10,897.716 oz
v) Out of Malca 583,346.400 oz
total withdrawal 4,559,793.482 oz
adjustments: 8 dealer to customer
a) Asahi 5,673,333.260 oz
b) Brinks: 198,682.200 oz
c) CNT: 246,439.290 oz
d) Delaware: 24,439.290 oz
e) JPMorgan: 986,525,680 oz
f) Loomis 833,367.740 oz
g) Manfra 1011,016.522 oz
h) Stonex; 151,077.810 oz
total adjusted out of dealer to customer: 9,124,785.682 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 173.918 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 515.632 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 462 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 25 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 293 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 318 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP FOR 1.590 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 28.515 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S MASSIVE 1.590 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 30,625 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER LOST 9 CONTRACTS UP TO 2429
DECEMBER LOST 1663 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 126,571
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 293 or 1.465 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 148,529 immense//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5608 X5,000 oz = 28/040 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (462) AND the number of notices served upon today (367 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (5608) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(462) minus number of notices served upon today (367)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 28.515 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 30.625 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 30.625 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 173.918 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 208,435/515.632million. 40.38%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1018.88 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 506.511 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
AMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Rising bond yields and the death of fiat
US Treasury yields have declined for the last two years. It’s a trap ahead of far higher yields as the credit bubble pops with consequences for gold, silver, and also all other commodities.
| Alasdair MacleodOct 14∙Paid |
A consolidation of the type delineated between the pecked lines usually precedes a breakout continuing the prior trend, suggesting a minimum target of about 10%. This flies in the face of market expectations. While admitting that inflation is somewhat sticky, investors believe that there will be further rate cuts by the year-end.
Standing back from post-covid economic and financial developments, we see that the rise in yields to late-2023 broke a strong, long-term downtrend, which tends to confirm the hypothesis that there are more bond yield rises to come:
The long-term decline was from 15% in October 1981. Breaking such an important downtrend has consequences, not least given that Federal government debt at $37.6 trillion is at about 125% of GDP —that’s a leverage of 6.8 times tax revenue. Imagine taking out a mortgage on that relationship to your income, only to be clobbered by a doubling of the interest rate.
We shall return to the economic and financial consequences later in this article.
A template for currency collapse
Every fiat currency in history commits harakiri through debt spiralling out of control, and the current cohort of currencies is not different.
The end is brought about by markets pricing default risk properly, which means higher bond yields. And higher bond yields lead to debt traps, which bankrupt all businesses with debt leverage, even those without, and eventually destroy the currency itself.
Higher bond yields leave politicians with no alternative but to support everything, from failing businesses, to banks, and to keep their governments in funds. This support comes from increasingly short-term debt, issued at suppressed interest rates to finance currency expansion to pay for it all. And as the lethal combination of debasement and loss of faith in a currency’s value do their devilish work, its purchasing power enters a final period of collapse.
While the particulars vary, every fiat currency dies in a similar fashion. At the time of the proto-Keynesian John Law, Richard Cantillon understood the process well and made a fortune shorting Law’s fiat livres for gold, just as the smarter central banks are doing today with their dollar reserves.
The similarities to the way the best recorded currency collapse in history developed are also startling, offering a template for our understanding today. We refer to Germany’s hyperinflation following the First World War.
The initial phase, which follows economic destruction is evidenced in a period of inflation as credit is expanded to support the post-war recovery by funding consumption. This is followed by a period of apparent currency stability as credit expansion is redirected to assets, with the stock market soaring and property values rising to give an illusion of prosperity. And finally, the currency enters its third period of final collapse as the credit bubble deflates.
Following covid when economic activity was effectively shut down, in all G7 nations we have seen phases one and two, with phase three yet to follow. The comparison with post-WW1 Germany is illustrated in the table below.
Following the initial phase, in the second phase from February 1920 to December 1921 Germany enjoyed a stock market boom when post-war consumer price inflation declined. The apparent wealth created by credit expansion backing stock speculation enriched the middle classes, while the conditions of the lower classes barely improved. In 2022 to today, the US and other G7 nations have experienced similar conditions. We have yet to face the third phase of currency collapse.
Gold and silver show the currency crisis is approaching
Clearly, a liquidity crisis has developed in paper gold and more noticeably, silver as physical metal is being demanded over paper. This tells us that inside money is already getting out of fiat and into legal money without counterparty risk. It’s the same trade as Richard Cantillon’s of 1718—1720 France, when he shorted John Law’s Mississippi scheme and his fiat livres for gold in London and Amsterdam, the principal foreign exchanges of the day.
Gold is essentially a proxy for all commodities. And while the current liquidity squeeze is raising its value anticipating a decline in currency purchasing powers, it means that commodity prices will rise, probably sharply, from the lowest real levels seen in over a 125 years. The chart below shows a basket of base metals priced in gold, but the story is the same for all commodities and raw materials. Metals are currently at only 20% of their long-term value, undoubtedly depressed by being priced in fiat dollars.
The Keynesian crowd, suspecting that demand for commodities will decline as the global (i.e. Western) economy goes into a much-vaunted recession, is wholly unaware of these price dynamics which is why they expect interest rates to remain under the control of central banks. Furthermore, we ignore what’s going on with Asia and the global south which under China’s leadership are rapidly industrialising. Growing commodity demand will be from the 70% of the world’s population who are not us.
This compounds the underlying fiat currency problem, which threatens to combine a recovery in real commodity values with a decline in their purchasing power. Measured in fiat, the rise in commodity prices promises to be spectacular.
America has engineered even greater problems for the dollar. Unless there is a significant and uncharacteristic jump in the savings rate, Trump’s tariffs will increase consumer prices even more. That they haven’t done so far should not mislead you. As Richard Cantillon explained in his Essay on Economic Theory, it takes time for the consequences of credit expansion to trickle through to higher prices.
The latest exchange with China is most concerning, because China has signalled that her export trade with America is not her priority, having slipped to under 10% of the total and set to continue declining. Trump’s tariff levers against her are therefore ineffective, and will only harm US consumers
Therefore, President Trump made a huge mistake in threatening an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to President Xi’s restrictions on rare earth exports. It appears unlikely that Xi will back down, because there is little to be gained from doing so.
The consequences of these errors will soon become obvious to bond markets, and the next leg of higher bond yields is set to commence. Banks will withdraw credit from asset speculation, leading to a stock market crash whose wider consequences will be dire.
The Fed will face funding the Federal government’s rising deficit as its revenue declines and welfare commitments rise. With bond yields rising along the curve, funding is bound to rely heavily on short-term T-bills, which as debt are near cash. The scale of debt issuance to rescue government finances and to support a debt-ridden private sector will have to be immense.
It will be a situation which was familiar to earlier generations of German citizens during the Weimar Republic. It is the third and final phase in our table above, marking the death of fiat currencies. The president of the Reichsbank, Rudolf Havenstein, would be all too familiar with the situation if he was alive today.
It is worth noting that after Germany’s stock market peaked in December 1921, the slide into the reichsmark’s dramatic collapse began. All values priced in gold marks sank lower, including housing and landed estates. At the end in November 1923, one gold mark was worth a trillion reichsmarks. Gold was the only protection. This is what gold is signalling to us today.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA GOLD DISPATCHES/OTHER GOLD RELATED TOPICS
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /244 AND 243
LAST WEEK:
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD TRADING
Gold Dealer Says ‘All-Time’ Records Broken as Aussies Rush to Buy Bullion
The 5,000 year old investment option is surging amid ongoing uncertainty with global tensions.
Gold bullion can be seen after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, Australia on April 29, 2025. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images
10/13/2025|Updated: 10/13/2025
Australians are returning to a 5000-year-old tradition as they stockpile gold and other precious metals amid years of global turbulence and uncertainty.
In recent days, viral footage has circulated online of a long line from one gold dealer’s doors in Sydney’s Martin Place.
According to major bullion dealer, Ainslie Bullion, investors have been spurred by a culmination of factors including the dropping value of currency due to uncontrolled government spending and budget deficits, as well as ballooning debt.
This has left mum and dad investors around the world looking for safe options to invest their money—and with difficulties breaking into the already sky-high property market—many have instead turned to precious metals.
The price of gold has soared from A$2,380.77 (US$1,550.71) in Oct. 11, 2021, to A$6,257.90 (US$4,076.08) in Oct. 13, 2025.
“There has been a massive surge in interest and transactions with our waiting rooms all full and instore and online orders both breaking all-time records—and we have been around for 51 years,” Ainslie Bullion CEO Michael Engeman told The Epoch Times.
“There is certainly a momentum play with the prices of gold, silver and platinum up very strongly this year and people jumping in.”
Gold has, throughout 5000 years of history, been what Engeman terms “the monetary asset of last resort, or safe haven.”
“That ranges from global resets that occur around every 80 years—and the last around 80 years ago—to financial crashes like we saw in the global financial crisis or COVID,” he said.
“On the latter, in the six worst years on the Australian ASX200 you would have been down on average 20.5 percent.
“In those very same years gold went up on average 35.5 percent, so you were 56 percent better off in gold than shares in those years.”
Gold maintains its value by being scarce as opposed to cash which can be printed in large batches, devaluing its worth.
Gold bars are pictured at a plant of gold refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus SA in Mendrisio, southern Switzerland, on April 6, 2009. Sebastian Derungs/AFP via Getty Images
The precious metal is hard to find, expensive to mine and has traditionally increased in amount at about 1.6 percent annually—meaning investors used to look elsewhere if they were seeking stronger returns.
“If you compare that to the U.S. printing 40 percent of all the U.S. dollars ever in existence in one year during COVID-19 you get the reason why people are flocking to it,” Engeman said.
“Gold discoveries are becoming fewer and approval times to open a mine longer.”
Then there’s the case of the world’s central banks purchasing unprecedented amounts of gold as reserves, seemingly at the expense of the traditional preference for buying U.S. treasury bonds—something which has helped to drive up prices.
“This puts a solid floor under the price of gold as these are strategic long-terms sovereign nation reserves,” Engeman said.
“There is also a growing scepticism around the ‘paper promises’ that many synthetic vehicles for owning gold represent. This is seeing people turning to physical bullion which has zero counterparty risk. The old saying, ‘You don’t own it if you don’t hold it,’ is ringing large right now.”
The insight into gold-buying comes as Australian shares fell on the back of global trade tensions.
The S&P/ASX200 fell 75.5 points on Oct. 13, down 0.84 per cent, to 8,882.8, as the broader All Ordinaries lost 81 points, or 0.87 per cent, to 9,183.3, AAP reported.
Ten of 11 sectors were reported to have traded lower, while gold and rare earths miners held strong.
END
SILVER TRADING
Silver Increases 1.5 Percent on Monday, Up 76 Percent in 2025
Prices may jump to $70 per ounce in the case there is extreme inflation and sustained safe-haven buying.
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8SavePrint
Silver bullion is offered for sale at the Chicago Coin Company in Chicago, Ill. Scott Olson/Getty Images
Reporter
10/13/2025|Updated: 10/13/2025
Silver spot prices were trading up on Monday after recently breaking through the $50 per-ounce level for the first time ever.
Spot silver was trading at $51.08 per oz. as of 6:50 a.m. EDT on Monday, up by more than 1.5 percent from Friday’s close. The metal had closed above the $50 level on Friday. The spot price for silver previously came close to $50 in April 2011, when it hit $49.54 per oz. Since the beginning of 2025, prices have jumped by more than 76 percent.
Silver prices have risen in tandem with gold, as investors flocked to these metals for safe-haven investments amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
The recent increase in silver prices comes amid the U.S. federal government shutdown that began on Oct. 1, which shows no signs of immediate resolution.
Although silver and gold are safe-haven investments, there are a few key differences.
For one, silver is more tied to the global economy, with more than half the demand coming from high-tech and heavy-industry sectors. As such, silver tends to be more responsive to economic changes than gold, said a post by Morgan Stanley.
Silver has higher price volatility, with prices potentially moving up two to three times more than gold in a day. Hence, investors looking to direct funds into silver must account for this volatility and the risks that come with it.
Silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETP) inflows have already seen a massive surge in the first half of the year, nonprofit international association The Silver Institute said in a July 9 statement.
“With net inflows of 95 million ounces … in the first half of 2025, silver ETP investment has already surpassed the total for all of last year. This surge reflects increasingly bullish price expectations,” it said.
As for futures positions at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, “institutional investors have demonstrated a strong commitment to silver as a store of value for much of this year. This is reflected in the average net longs over the first six months of 2025, which achieved their highest level since the first half of 2021,” it said.
Earlier this year, large quantities of silver were shipped out from London’s physical market to the United States due to fear of tariffs on silver imports.
But now, the spot price for silver is higher than the metal’s futures price at the U.S. COMEX (Commodities Exchange) market, making it attractive for traders to bring back silver to London.
At the COMEX, silver was trading at around $49.62 per oz. for the most active December futures contract, $1.46 lower than the spot price.
“There’s a genuine shortage of silver (in London), but you’ve got 500 million ounces sitting in COMEX doing nothing,” Ryan Mangan, head of global metals and bulks trading at Macquarie, said at a briefing on Thursday.
Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault, said, “So much silver went to the U.S. that there’s now almost four years’ worth of domestic demand stockpiled.”
He said that “in London, lease rates are a little over 11 percent, which is phenomenal.”
Lease rates refer to the cost of borrowing physical silver and can be used as a gauge of demand for the metal.
In a Sept. 30 post, financial services company EBC Financial Group said there was a 25 percent probability of silver prices moving to the $50–70 range.
“A break above $50 triggers momentum buying; $70+ becomes possible in an extreme inflation and safe-haven mix. This requires a macro shock or sustained policy pivot,” it said.
“Although extreme predictions of $100 are commonly seen on the internet, many analysts believe that $55–70 represents the plausible upper limit in 2025 in optimistic scenarios, unless a significant financial crisis occurs.”
EBC also warned about red flags that could reverse silver’s bull rally, including demand shocks in the solar or electronics sector and policy or regulatory headwinds.
END
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.27 POINTS OR 0.62%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 448.41 PTS OR 1.73%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1214.48 PTS OR 2.58% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1390// OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1431/ Oil DOWN TO 59.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1390 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1431 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1390
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1431
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 448.41 PTS OR 1.73%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1214.46 PTS OR 2.58%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.04 EURO RISES TO 1.1571 UP 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.658//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.74…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.229 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5980// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.445 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.157
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.318
3j Gold at $4121.50 Silver at: 52.05 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 32 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.32
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.74/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.653% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.229 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8028 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9289 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.022 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.614 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.470 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.83 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6250 DOWN 4 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.4200 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.169 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.737 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Slide As Trade War Jitters Return, Q3 Earnings Begin, Powell Speaks
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 08:50 AM
The market rollercoaster continues: after Monday’s faceripping bounce, US equity futures are lower again led by tech, part of a global risk-off tone as the US/China trade war returned after Beijing vowed to “fight to the end” in the tariff and trade war, while acknowledging that the door for negotiation is open and trade talks between the two countries had resumed yesterday. Beijing also imposed curbs on the American units of Hanwha Ocean, one of South Korea’s biggest shipbuilders, as it targets US measures against the Chinese shipping sector. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.9% and near session lows as market may be reading the latest response by China as an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ ahead of the Trump / Xi mtg later this month. Nasdaq 100 futs were 1.1% lower with all members of the Magnificent Seven sliding in premarket trading, while European stocks slipped 0.7%. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens, pushing 10Y yields briefly below 4.0%, with USD flat as the bond market returns from holiday. In addition to MegaCap Banks we have the Small Business Survey which printed below estimates, and where the section on hiring plans will be under scrutiny given the gov’t shutdown. The biggest highlight of the session is Fed Chair Powell speaking on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at 12:20pm ET.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -1.8%, Tesla -2.5%, Alphabet -1.6%, Apple -0.7%, Microsoft -0.7%, Meta -1.4%, Amazon -1.4%).
- Cryptocurrency-linked stocks slide amid a drop in Bitcoin prices following a flare-up in trade tensions between the US and China.
- US-listed critical mineral companies are extending gains after China hits US with more retaliatory measures on the shipping industry, a sign of persistent trade tensions between the two economies.
- Astria (ATXS) shares rose 30% following a brief halt after BioCryst announced plans to buy the biopharmaceutical company.
- Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) shares gain 1.9% after the restaurant chain reported total domestic stores comp sales growth for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- General Motors Co. (GM) falls 1.8% as the company is incurring $1.6 billion in charges related to paring back electric-vehicle production plans, underscoring the toll on US carmakers from flagging federal support for plug-in vehicles.
- Polaris (PII) climbs 8% after saying it will separate Indian Motorcycle into a standalone company and entered a definitive agreement to sell a majority stake to Carolwood LP.
- Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) jumps 24% after unveiling its 100 V GaN FETs, 650 V GaN and high voltage SiC devices for Nvidia’s 800 VDC AI factory architecture.
- Rayonier Inc. (RYN) and PotlatchDeltic Corp. (PCH) agreed to combine their businesses, creating a major US timberland owner and lumber manufacturer with a market capitalization of $7.1 billion. Rayonier +1%, PotlatchDeltic +5%
- T-Mobile (TMUS) shares rise 1% after RBC raised the stock to outperform as the firm expects the telecom operator to see stronger subscriber growth versus wireless peers in the short term.
- Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) climbs 2.6% after raising a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.
Global equities retreated after China upped the ante in its trade standoff with the US, stirring fresh concerns over tensions between Beijing and Washington at a time when stocks look stretched after a relentless rally. Besides hammering global stocks and marking a third day of wild stock swings, the latest standoff also sparked a rally in global bonds as investors pulled back from risk, sending the 10-year US Treasury yield down two basis points to 4.01%. Gold swung between gains and losses, while silver dipped after hitting a record over $53/oz.
“The sharp reversal shows how quickly sentiment can shift,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “With elevated valuations already making markets vulnerable, expect continued volatility.”
Traders’ attention is also turning to the unofficial start of earnings season. JPMorgan fluctuated premarket after beating estimates for trading and investment-banking fees. Goldman Sachs fell despite posting record third-quarter revenues, on concerns about rising expenses.
Alongside renewed trade concerns, the surge in AI stocks is stoking bubble fears. In the October edition of BofA’s Fund Manager Survey survey, 54% of investors think there’s a bubble in the sector with concerns over global equity prices also at a record.
Bank earnings will be key for market direction later, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan all reporting this morning. Fed’s Powell is due to speak at 12:20pm ET, and his commentary will be crucial amid a lack of hard data.
Going back to the AI story that has rescued the market from other dips, BBG warns that it may be losing steam. Samsung shares fell, despite the company reporting its biggest quarterly profit in more than three years, with some investors cashing in on its recent AI-mania fueled gains.
In other assets, cryptocurrencies continued to lose ground after a historic round of liquidations that triggered a sharp selloff over the weekend, with Bitcoin slumping as much as 3.7%. Oil fell after the IEA raised its estimate for a record oversupply.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls as much a 1% after a broadly negative Asian session. European stocks fell on renewed trade jitters as China sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean. Telecommunications and real estate equities are the biggest gainers, while mining and automobile shares led the declines. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Ericsson shares jump as much as 15%, the most since April 2018, after the Swedish telecommunications group beat estimates. Analysts were impressed by robust profitability and strong gross margins in the Networks divisions
- Bellway shares rise as much as 6.2%, the most in four months, as the housebuilder leaves guidance broadly unchanged and unveils a £150m share buyback program
- EasyJet shares jump as much as 11%, the most since January 2023, after a report that Mediterranean Shipping Company is considering making an offer for the budget airline, in partnership with an investment firm
- Klepierre climbs as much as 2.5% following a double-upgrade to overweight at JPMorgan, based on more positive capital growth assumptions for the French property management company
- European mining shares are the worst-performing sector in the Stoxx 600 index on Tuesday after iron ore fell from the highest since late February as some concerns over potential supply issues from new port fees in China eased
- Siemens Energy falls as much as 7.4% in Frankfurt trading, the most since April, with traders citing profit-taking in momentum stocks
- Siemens slips as much as 3.5% on Tuesday as Morgan Stanley says the firm is no longer trading at a material discount to its “theoretical sum-of-the-parts” valuation following a strong re-rating this year, and downgrades to equal-weight
- BASF shares fall as much as 2.1%, the most since August, after the chemicals company was downgraded to sell from hold and the price target lowered to €37 from €44 at Berenberg
- Michelin shares fall as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, after the French firm issued a profit warning, mainly due to much weaker performance in North America
- Bekaert drops as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, as Oddo BHF downgrades the Belgian steel-wire company to underperform from neutral, saying the strategy unveiled late in Dec. 2023 has yielded “very little.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday, hurt by broad worries over US-China trade frictions as well as losses in Japan, where political uncertainty dragged shares lower after a long weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, to head for a third day of declines, with Chinese tech names Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags. The Hang Seng Tech Index entered a technical correction after the gauge fell more than 10% from a high on Oct. 2 following a blistering five-month rally through September.
“China’s new tit-for-tat move against Hanwha Ocean’s US units marks another escalation in the strategic supply chain rivalry, deepening cracks in an already fragile risk backdrop,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne. “In essence, it reinforces the de-risking narrative.”
Australian mining companies with critical minerals projects jumped, fueled by signs of US interest in equity stakes as Trump and China intensify their strategic competition. In Japan, the Topix and Nikkei both slumped at least 2% each as trading resumed following Monday’s holiday. Japan’s governing coalition abruptly collapsed Friday in a major blow to new ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi, plunging the country into one of its biggest political crises in decades. Meanwhile, LG Electronics India soared in its Mumbai trading debut after investors flocked to the firm’s initial public offering, one of India’s biggest this year.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses losses to rise as much as 0.3% to its highest since Aug. 1; the pound drops 0.4% while the Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.9%. Hedge funds in Asia and Europe are buying vanilla dollar call options versus a range of currencies amid a pickup in risk-off sentiment, according to European and Asian traders, BBG reports.
- USD/JPY +0.2% to 151.96 (range 151.62 – 152.61)
- EUR/USD little changed at 1.1561 (range 1.1555 – 1.1594)
- GBP/USD -0.6% to 1.3259 (range 1.3258 – 1.3353)
In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.01%. Gilts lead an advance in European government bonds after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, prompting traders to boost BOE easing bets. UK 10-year yields fall 7 bps to 4.59%.
In commodities, spot gold has recovered to add $30 after an abrupt selloff saw it briefly turn negative. Silver also fell sharply from a record and is still down 2%. Bitcoin falls 3.5% below $112,000.
Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.8%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -1%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
- DAX -0.9%
- CAC 40 -0.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.01%
- VIX +2.4 points at 21.47
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1217.9
- euro little changed at $1.1562
- WTI crude -2.1% at $58.23/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US Treasury secretary Bessent has accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy after Beijing imposed sweeping export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, hitting global supply chains. Bessent told the FT that China’s introduction of the controls (3 wks before Trump/Xi meeting) reflected problems in its own economy. FT
- China added 5 US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean to its sanctions list for allegedly co-operating with American efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels that took effect on Tuesday. FT
- Chinese rare earth magnet companies have been facing tighter scrutiny on export license applications since September, sources say, even before Beijing’s move last week to expand controls over the critical minerals used in magnets. RTRS
- European Union officials called for strong measures against China after Beijing imposed fresh export restrictions on rare minerals used in computer chips and other advanced technologies. “We should have a tough response,” said Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. BBG
- Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are said to be discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year. Some members of the House GOP leadership circle are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House Office of Legislative Affairs and the Domestic Policy Council to develop a framework for a deal: Politico
- Japanese stocks slump in Tues trading (they were closed Monday) as markets react to political uncertainty following Fri’s news of LDP’s junior partner withdrawing from the party’s coalition. Nikkei
- Crude fell after the IEA warned of a record oversupply in 2026. Supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels a day — 18% higher than September estimates — an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, the agency said. BBG
- UK unemployment unexpectedly rose and wage growth slowed more than forecast in the three months through August, prompting traders to boost bets on further BOE rate cuts next year. The pound fell. BBG
- EPS in full swing this morning with banks – JPMorgan beat most estimates, with both equities and FICC sales trading revenue well above expectations. Wells Fargo beat earnings and was as expected at a high level, missing on NIIs but beating on fees. BBG
- Donald Trump’s lumber tariffs take effect today, with the import duties on kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture and other items threatening to raise renovation costs and deter new home purchases. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- China officially began special port fees for US ships, while it was earlier reported that China issued implementation rules on port fees on US ships and exempted China-made ships owned by US companies from port fees, while it is to adjust special port fees on US ships as needed.
- China’s MOFCOM responded to the US saying it has proposed talks with China after rare earth restrictions, in which MOFCOM stated the US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not the right way to get along with China, while it urged the US to correct its “wrong practices” as soon as possible and show sincerity in talks with China. It also stated that export curbs are not an export ban and do not prohibit exports. Furthermore, it said they held working-level talks on Monday and noted that both sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, MOFCOM later announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
- China Transport Ministry said it opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China’s shipping industry.
- China’s Commerce Ministry urges the US to correct mistakes and hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue.
- China increases oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets, via Reuters citing sources.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St and with underperformance in Japanese markets as they reopened from the extended weekend and reacted to the recent US-China tariff tensions, as well as the Japanese ruling coalition split. ASX 200 struggled for direction as weakness in the financial and consumer-related sectors offset the gains in materials and miners, with the latter helped by the recent upside in metal prices and with Rio Tinto gaining following its quarterly activity update. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants returned from the holiday closure and reacted to the recent US-China trade frictions and political uncertainty in Japan, while there were late headwinds after reports of China trade-related actions against the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are lower amid the backdrop of the tumultuous trade/tariff related headlines in which the recent softening in tone by the US on China was followed by reports overnight that China’s MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China’s Transport Ministry opened an investigation into US 301 tariffs impact on China shipping industry.
Top Asian News
- Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level at which the band is centred, as expected. MAS said it is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and MAS core inflation should trough in the near term but rise gradually over the course of 2026, while it added that Singapore’s economic growth has turned out stronger than expected and the output gap will remain positive in 2025.
- RBA Minutes from the September meeting stated the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, while it added that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. RBA said the market path for the cash rate is within estimates of neutral but too imprecise to guide policy and it is important to see what Q3 data shows on the economy and supply capacity, as well as noted that policy is probably still a little restrictive, but this is difficult to determine and there are still risks on both sides for the economy.
- Japan’s LDP proposes October 21st for extraordinary Diet, via FNN.
- China’s Central Bank-backed Publication will continue to uphold decisive role of market in exchange rate formation and strengthen guidance of expectations.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are broadly lower across the board, with sentiment hampered by the ongoing US-China spat; overnight, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+13%) after it beat on profits and raised guidance. To the bottom of the pile resides Basic Resources, hampered by broader weakness in underlying metals prices. US equity futures (ES -0.8%, NQ -1.1%, RTY -0.9%) are lower across the board, following a similar theme seen in Europe. All focus today on a number of bank results, to kick off Q3 earnings seasons. BP (BP/ LN) Q3’25 Trading Statement: Upstream Production in Q3 is now exp. to be higher vs prior quarter, but flagged weaker trading into Q3. BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 11.55 (exp. 11.24), Revenue 6.51bln (exp. 6.23bln); AUM 13.464tln (exp. 13.37tln).
Top European News
- Barclays UK September Consumer Spending fell 0.7% Y/Y vs prev. 0.5% Y/Y increase in August.
- The tax elements of French PM Lecornu’s draft finance bill reportedly include 30 articles, some have already been announced, but also the addition of a tax on “assets not allocated to an operational activity of property holding companies”, via Playbook. Furthermore, Playbook, citing a source, reports that there is no question for the PS of “doing another round of negotiations on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday”.
- The two motions of censure will be looked at on Thursday at 08:00 BST, but the Conference of Presidents on the National Assembly, via BFMTV.
- French fiscal watchdog HCFP says French government’s 2026 budget plan relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions; based on ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. France is at risk of under-delivering on spending and tax measures in 2026 budget. Budget bill includes belt-tightening measures worth over EUR 30bln, including EUR 13.7bln in taxes and EUR 17bln in spending cuts.
- French Socialist Party (PS) will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government in the motions filed by LFI and RN, will instead file its own motion of no confidence in the scenario it is not satisfied with the budget proposals, via Reuters citing sources
- German Economy Ministry says current indicators do not point to economic recovery in Q3.
- Riksbank’s Bunge says monetary policy must be forward looking; Inflation remains elevated, but with increased confidence that it will fall back, we were able to cut the policy rate to provide further support to the economy.
- EU Commission modifies drone wall proposals to suggest broader European drone defence initiative, via Reuters sources.
FX
- After a soft start to the session, whereby DXY was dragged lower by the haven bid into the JPY, the Greenback was able to garner support at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies and the GBP (post-jobs data). The bout of risk aversion was triggered by China’s decision to take countermeasures against five US-linked firms – a move which has dashed some of the hopes seen during yesterday’s session. Furthermore, a source piece in the WSJ overnight stated that “people close to the Trump administration say the US side likely will demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down the rare-earth export rule“. Focus today on US NFIB Small Business Optimism index, and speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman. DXY has ventured as high as 99.47, with the next target coming via last week’s peak at 99.56.
- After initially looking like it was going to make a test of 1.16 overnight, EUR/USD was dragged lower by the broader pick-up in the USD. From a macro perspective, focus in the Eurozone remains on France with PM Lecornu set to present his budget at 14:00BST, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026. In terms of the specifics, Politico reports that additional measures to those previously expected will include a tax on the richest members of society. Even with the Socialists on board, the governing coalition would still need to find additional votes in the Assembly, which looks tough given that the Far Right and Left are expected to table a no-confidence motion on Lecornu. Elsewhere in core Europe, German ZEW data showed misses for both metrics, with the current conditions component slipping further into negative territory. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.1543 and is just about holding above last week’s low at 1.1542.
- JPY is the only of the majors to out-muscle the USD given its safe-haven status. JPY was supported in early European trade as investors reacted to the increase in US-China tensions overnight (see USD section for details). Subsequently, USD/JPY was dragged as low as 151.63 vs. an earlier session high at 152.61. A pick-up in the USD has since seen the pair return to a 152 handle. In terms of the macro story for Japan, it is one that remains dominated by domestic politics following the collapse of the ruling coalition. Note, the LDP party has proposed October 21st for an extraordinary Diet session.
- GBP was hit in early European trade following the latest UK labour market report, which was largely viewed with a dovish lens. Surmising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted the unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and the decline in 3M/YY ex-bonus average earnings, which will factor into thinking on the MPC. Elsewhere, BRC retail sales slowed to 2.0% Y/Y in September from 2.9% as consumers remain cautious in the run-up to next month’s fiscal event. Cable has delved as low as 1.3255 to levels not seen since early August.
- Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. In the absence of any material domestic updates, AUD and NZD remain at the whim of broader risk dynamics, which are being led by US and Chinese trade tensions.
Fixed Income
- USTs are bid, firmer by over 10 ticks to a 113-16+ high. Strength this morning comes on the back of the downbeat risk tone as China retaliates. Upside that has driven the benchmark to a fresh high for the month, with the next points of resistance at 113-21, 113-25+ and then the 113-29 September peak. Specifically, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and outlined that the US cannot have talks while new restrictions are being threatened. Elsewhere, the docket is packed with Fed speak via voters Bowman, Waller, Chair Powell and 2025 voter Collins.
- OATs are firmer today, in-fitting with peers. A packed agenda for French politics. The main update this morning came from the French fiscal watchdog HCFP on the 2026 budget draft, a draft that was in-fitting with overnight sources. On the draft, HCFP described it as relying on overly optimistic scenarios and ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. Perhaps most pertinently today, PM Lecornu’s General Policy Statement is scheduled for 14:00BST. The statement should take no more than 90 minutes, afterwards other party leaders can respond. It is worth highlighting that the French Socialist Party will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government, and instead opt for its own motion of no confidence, if it not satisfied with the proposal.
- Bunds are bid, given the market narrative outlined in USTs. No move to final German HICP for September this morning which was unrevised. For Bunds, the morning’s main event was October ZEW. The series came in softer than expected across the board and sparked some modest upside in Bunds, though well within earlier parameters. No move to a new Schatz auction which was fairly weak.
- Gilts are outperforming after the morning’s jobs data. Opened higher by 45 ticks before climbing to a 91.81 peak with gains of 57 ticks at best. Stopping a tick shy of the 91.82 September peak; if the move continues, then there is a bit of a gap before the 92.70 August high. The morning’s data saw an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, going against the view from the most recent MPC statement that there is less of an immediate risk that the labour market will loosen very rapidly. A point that serves as a dovish impetus. However, this is caveated on face value by the elevated wage figure (incl-bonus). Upside that the ONS attributes to the public sector, as some pay rises are awarded earlier than they were in 2024.
- Germany sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.4x, average yield 1.91%, retention 22.7%.
- Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.80% 2028, 3.85% 2040 BTP.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are trending lower as renewed trade worries, easing geopolitical tensions, and an oversupplied oil market weigh on prices. Benchmarks are steadily declining as the European session continues, with WTI and Brent currently c. USD 1.7/bbl lower and trading near lows at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.00/bbl, respectively.
- Precious metals extended to new ATHs during APAC trade, with XAU and XAG peaking at USD 4180/oz and USD 53.59/oz respectively, before selling off as US President Trump hints of total peace in the Middle East.
- Base metals have reversed Monday’s gains, with 3M LME Copper returning to USD 10.5k/t from a peak of USD 10.86k/t, as recent dollar strength weighs on the commodity space.
- IEA OMR: lowers 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 710k BPD (prev. 740k BPD); leaves 2026 average oil demand growth forecast steady at 700k BPD.
- TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO says they are still quite bullish in medium term oil demand; CEO says there is no peak oil demand.
- US Energy Secretary Wright is set to announce the Trump administration’s fusion roadmap at an industry gathering on Tuesday, via Axios citing DOE officials.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump is said to have confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu will not annex any part of the West Bank, according to Al Arabiya.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US President Trump’s desire for peace and dialogue is in conflict with US hostile and criminal behaviour against Iran.
- US President Trump posts “Gaza is only a part of it. The big part is, PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST!”.
- Israeli’s Defence Force says several suspects were identified crossing the yellow line and approaching IDF troops operating in the northern Gaza Strip, which constitutes a violation of the agreement; troops opened fire to remove the threat, via CGTN.
US event calendar
- 8:45am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation at IIF
- 12:20pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
- 3:25pm: Fed’s Waller on Payments Panel at IIF
- 3:30pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As was looking likely in Asian trading yesterday morning, markets have recovered over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.56%) last night bouncing back from its tariff-induced selloff on Friday. A little momentum has been lost in the Asian session this morning but we’re still in a better place than Friday.
As we discussed this time yesterday, the biggest driver to Monday’s rally was more positive rhetoric on trade over the weekend, which suggested that the US was more open to a compromise than Trump’s initial posts from Friday had indicated. But markets also got another boost from the latest AI news, as OpenAI signed a deal with Broadcom (+9.88%) to purchase 10 gigawatts of computer chips. So by the close, it meant the S&P 500 had recovered more than half of its Friday losses, and other assets like Brent crude oil (+0.94%) also managed to pare back last week’s declines.
Stand by for the start of US earnings season today with JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup all reporting. S&P 500 (-0.38%) and NASDAQ (-0.57%) futures are lower this morning ahead of what will soon be a deluge of earnings in a market starved of macro data due to the shutdown. Japanese markets are being hit the most this morning with the Nikkei down -2.80% with continued reverberations around the collapse of the ruling coalition late last week which puts some concerns as to whether new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi can still get enough votes to be elected PM.
In terms of the latest on the trade war, the news over the last 24 hours has continued to sound much more emollient. For instance, US Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Fox Business yesterday, and he said on the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea, that “I believe that meeting will still be on”. Polymarket has the probability at such a meeting at 74% this morning from 62% as we went to print yesterday, 35% at the lows on Friday and 88% at the recent highs last week. Although as we go to print Bessent has been interviewed by the FT and his words seem more hawkish, accusing the Chinese of trying to hurt the world economy.
A reminder of Trump’s weekend posts, including his comment that Chinese President Xi “doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” That backdrop led to a decent rebound for the most trade-sensitive stocks. So the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index was up +3.21%, and that’s an index made up of companies publicly traded in the US, but who do a majority of their business in China. Similarly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+4.93%) posted its strongest daily performance since May, admittedly with a boost from the Broadcom headlines as well.
That unwind was clear across multiple asset classes, as the initial reaction from Friday was pared back. For instance, oil prices posted a decent recovery, with Brent crude (+0.94%) moving back up to $63.32/bbl, as investors lowered the chances of a wider breakdown in trade. Meanwhile US bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but Treasury futures pointed to higher yields all day but 10yr yields are only +0.6bps higher this morning from Friday’s close at 4.038% after having approached 4.07% at the reopen in Asia. 2yr yields are actually -1.3bps lower now than Friday’s close.
Whilst the focus was mainly on trade yesterday, we’re also now two weeks into the US government shutdown, with no sign of a resolution as it stands. Indeed, if we look at prediction markets, it’s clear that a growing risk of an extended shutdown is being priced in, with Polymarket saying there’s a 27% chance now of it lasting beyond November 16. So that would still be another month from here and take it well over the 35-day record set in 2018-19. And if it did last that long, then it would continue to impact the flow of data like the jobs reports and have an increasing macroeconomic impact as federal workers remain without pay for the shutdown period.
Over in Europe, political uncertainty was also a key theme yesterday as investors remain focused on the French budget situation. In terms of the next steps, PM Lecornu will be delivering the general policy statement today after his reappointment as PM, but the same issue remains in that the National Assembly is completely fractured between the different groups, who each have their own red lines. For now, however, markets haven’t seen much reaction, with the Franco-German 10yr spread holding broadly steady at 83bps. So it’s still beneath its peak of 86bps last week, when there was briefly a lot of speculation about another snap legislative election. Polymarket suggests the probability of an election being called by the end of the month and the end of the year stands at 36% and 57% respectively this morning but both down over 10pp from Sunday’s highs.
Elsewhere in Europe, markets generally put in a solid performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.44%, alongside gains for the DAX (+0.60%), the CAC 40 (+0.21%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.16%). Similarly, bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-2.8bps) all moving lower, whilst Spain’s 10yr yield (-1.6bps) hit a 3-month low.
In the rest of Asia, outside of the politically motivated slump in Japan, markets are on the softer side led by the KOSPI (-1.36%) which has turned sharply lower as I’ve been typing this morning even with decent results from Samsung. China has imposed curbs on five US units of Hanwha Ocean after the US probed Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.18%) is also lower for the seventh consecutive session with the Shanghai Composite (+0.21%) holding onto its gains alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.16%). The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting revealed that the central bank remains cautious regarding future interest rate cuts due to persistent local inflation, while largely reiterating its data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments, noting that it is also awaiting the full impact of its monetary easing to be reflected in the economy.
Finally, yesterday brought another surge in gold prices (+2.30%), which continued their rally to close at $4,1110/oz. So that now takes their YTD gain up to +56.6%, still on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979. This morning we’re up another +1.38% as I type. Meanwhile, silver (+4.44%) moved up to $52.37/oz yesterday, with its own YTD gains now standing at +82%. The London short squeeze continues to have an impact.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for August, the German ZEW survey for October, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Kocher and Villeroy, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Taylor. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Citigroup.
2b European Opening report
Sentiment hit after China’s MOFCOM takes action against US firms – Newsquawk US Opening News
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 06:18 AM
- China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms; said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions.
- French PM Lecornu’s government is to present a budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.
- Equities lower across the board, as markets digest the latest trade-related escalations by China on the US; traders also await a number of US earnings.
- JPY benefits from haven bid, GBP hit by soft jobs, Antipodeans dented by risk-tone.
- Global paper firmer amid the weakened risk tone, Gilts lead after data, OATs await PM Lecornu.
- Crude benchmarks fall as Middle East tensions ease, XAU pulls back from new ATHs.
- Looking ahead, US NFIB (Sep), Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speakers including ECB’s Villeroy, Kocher, BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, Fed’s Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman, BoC’s Rogers, RBA’s Hunter & Hauser, RBNZ’s Conway. Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson & LVMH.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- China officially began special port fees for US ships, while it was earlier reported that China issued implementation rules on port fees on US ships and exempted China-made ships owned by US companies from port fees, while it is to adjust special port fees on US ships as needed.
- China’s MOFCOM responded to the US saying it has proposed talks with China after rare earth restrictions, in which MOFCOM stated the US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not the right way to get along with China, while it urged the US to correct its “wrong practices” as soon as possible and show sincerity in talks with China. It also stated that export curbs are not an export ban and do not prohibit exports. Furthermore, it said they held working-level talks on Monday and noted that both sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, MOFCOM later announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
- China Transport Ministry said it opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China’s shipping industry.
- China’s Commerce Ministry urges the US to correct mistakes and hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue.
- China increases oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets, via Reuters citing sources.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are broadly lower across the board, with sentiment hampered by the ongoing US-China spat; overnight, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
- European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+13%) after it beat on profits and raised guidance. To the bottom of the pile resides Basic Resources, hampered by broader weakness in underlying metals prices.
- US equity futures (ES -0.8%, NQ -1.1%, RTY -0.9%) are lower across the board, following a similar theme seen in Europe. All focus today on a number of bank results, to kick off Q3 earnings seasons.
- BP (BP/ LN) Q3’25 Trading Statement: Upstream Production in Q3 is now exp. to be higher vs prior quarter, but flagged weaker trading into Q3.
- BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 11.55 (exp. 11.24), Revenue 6.51bln (exp. 6.23bln); AUM 13.464tln (exp. 13.37tln).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- After a soft start to the session, whereby DXY was dragged lower by the haven bid into the JPY, the Greenback was able to garner support at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies and the GBP (post-jobs data). The bout of risk aversion was triggered by China’s decision to take countermeasures against five US-linked firms – a move which has dashed some of the hopes seen during yesterday’s session. Furthermore, a source piece in the WSJ overnight stated that “people close to the Trump administration say the US side likely will demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down the rare-earth export rule“. Focus today on US NFIB Small Business Optimism index, and speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman. DXY has ventured as high as 99.47, with the next target coming via last week’s peak at 99.56.
- After initially looking like it was going to make a test of 1.16 overnight, EUR/USD was dragged lower by the broader pick-up in the USD. From a macro perspective, focus in the Eurozone remains on France with PM Lecornu set to present his budget at 14:00BST, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026. In terms of the specifics, Politico reports that additional measures to those previously expected will include a tax on the richest members of society. Even with the Socialists on board, the governing coalition would still need to find additional votes in the Assembly, which looks tough given that the Far Right and Left are expected to table a no-confidence motion on Lecornu. Elsewhere in core Europe, German ZEW data showed misses for both metrics, with the current conditions component slipping further into negative territory. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.1543 and is just about holding above last week’s low at 1.1542.
- JPY is the only of the majors to out-muscle the USD given its safe-haven status. JPY was supported in early European trade as investors reacted to the increase in US-China tensions overnight (see USD section for details). Subsequently, USD/JPY was dragged as low as 151.63 vs. an earlier session high at 152.61. A pick-up in the USD has since seen the pair return to a 152 handle. In terms of the macro story for Japan, it is one that remains dominated by domestic politics following the collapse of the ruling coalition. Note, the LDP party has proposed October 21st for an extraordinary Diet session.
- GBP was hit in early European trade following the latest UK labour market report, which was largely viewed with a dovish lens. Surmising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted the unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and the decline in 3M/YY ex-bonus average earnings, which will factor into thinking on the MPC. Elsewhere, BRC retail sales slowed to 2.0% Y/Y in September from 2.9% as consumers remain cautious in the run-up to next month’s fiscal event. Cable has delved as low as 1.3255 to levels not seen since early August.
- Antipodeans are both are softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. In the absence of any material domestic updates, AUD and NZD remain at the whim of broader risk dynamics, which are being led by US and Chinese trade tensions.
- Click for a detailed summary
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are bid, firmer by over 10 ticks to a 113-16+ high. Strength this morning comes on the back of the downbeat risk tone as China retaliates. Upside that has driven the benchmark to a fresh high for the month, with the next points of resistance at 113-21, 113-25+ and then the 113-29 September peak. Specifically, China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and outlined that the US cannot have talks while new restrictions are being threatened. Elsewhere, the docket is packed with Fed speak via voters Bowman, Waller, Chair Powell and 2025 voter Collins.
- OATs are firmer today, in-fitting with peers. A packed agenda for French politics. The main update this morning came from the French fiscal watchdog HCFP on the 2026 budget draft, a draft that was in-fitting with overnight sources. On the draft, HCFP described it as relying on overly optimistic scenarios and ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. Perhaps most pertinently today, PM Lecornu’s General Policy Statement is scheduled for 14:00BST. The statement should take no more than 90 minutes, afterwards other party leaders can respond. It is worth highlighting that the French Socialist Party will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government, and instead opt for its own motion of no confidence, if it not satisfied with the proposal.
- Bunds are bid, given the market narrative outlined in USTs. No move to final German HICP for September this morning which was unrevised. For Bunds, the morning’s main event was October ZEW. The series came in softer than expected across the board and sparked some modest upside in Bunds, though well within earlier parameters. No move to a new Schatz auction which was fairly weak.
- Gilts are outperforming after the morning’s jobs data. Opened higher by 45 ticks before climbing to a 91.81 peak with gains of 57 ticks at best. Stopping a tick shy of the 91.82 September peak; if the move continues, then there is a bit of a gap before the 92.70 August high. The morning’s data saw an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, going against the view from the most recent MPC statement that there is less of an immediate risk that the labour market will loosen very rapidly. A point that serves as a dovish impetus. However, this is caveated on face value by the elevated wage figure (incl-bonus). Upside that the ONS attributes to the public sector, as some pay rises are awarded earlier than they were in 2024.
- Germany sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.4x, average yield 1.91%, retention 22.7%.
- Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 6.75-8.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.80% 2028, 3.85% 2040 BTP.
- UK to sell GBP 9bln of 5.25% 2041 Gilt via syndication, according to a bookrunner cited by Reuters- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are trending lower as renewed trade worries, easing geopolitical tensions, and an oversupplied oil market weigh on prices. Benchmarks are steadily declining as the European session continues, with WTI and Brent currently c. USD 1.7/bbl lower and trading near lows at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.00/bbl, respectively.
- Precious metals extended to new ATHs during APAC trade, with XAU and XAG peaking at USD 4180/oz and USD 53.59/oz respectively, before selling off as US President Trump hints of total peace in the Middle East.
- Base metals have reversed Monday’s gains, with 3M LME Copper returning to USD 10.5k/t from a peak of USD 10.86k/t, as recent dollar strength weighs on the commodity space.
- IEA OMR: lowers 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 710k BPD (prev. 740k BPD); leaves 2026 average oil demand growth forecast steady at 700k BPD.
- TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO says they are still quite bullish in medium term oil demand; CEO says there is no peak oil demand.
- US Energy Secretary Wright is set to announce the Trump administration’s fusion roadmap at an industry gathering on Tuesday, via Axios citing DOE officials.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.8% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.7%); Employment Change (Aug) 91k vs. Exp. 123k (Prev. 232k)
- UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Aug) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.7%, Rev. 4.8%); Ex-Bonus (Aug) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.8%)
- UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Sep) -10k vs. Exp. -10k (Prev. -8k); Claimant Count Unem Chng (Sep) 25.8k (Prev. 17.4k, Rev. -2.0k)
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Sep) 2.0% (Prev. 2.9%); Total Sales YY (Sep) 2.3% (Prev. 3.1%)
- German HICP Final YY (Sep) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%); MM (Sep) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 39.3 vs. Exp. 41.0 (Prev. 37.3); Current Conditions (Oct) -80.0 vs. Exp. -74.8 (Prev. -76.4)
- EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Oct) 22.7 (Prev. 26.1)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Barclays UK September Consumer Spending fell 0.7% Y/Y vs prev. 0.5% Y/Y increase in August.
- The tax elements of French PM Lecornu’s draft finance bill reportedly include 30 articles, some have already been announced, but also the addition of a tax on “assets not allocated to an operational activity of property holding companies”, via Playbook. Furthermore, Playbook, citing a source, reports that there is no question for the PS of “doing another round of negotiations on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday”.
- The two motions of censure will be looked at on Thursday at 08:00 BST, but the Conference of Presidents on the National Assembly, via BFMTV.
- French fiscal watchdog HCFP says French government’s 2026 budget plan relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions; based on ambitious spending restraint that would be difficult to implement. France is at risk of under-delivering on spending and tax measures in 2026 budget. Budget bill includes belt-tightening measures worth over EUR 30bln, including EUR 13.7bln in taxes and EUR 17bln in spending cuts.
- French Socialist Party (PS) will not vote against PM Lecornu’s government in the motions filed by LFI and RN, will instead file its own motion of no confidence in the scenario it is not satisfied with the budget proposals, via Reuters citing sources
- German Economy Ministry says current indicators do not point to economic recovery in Q3.
- Riksbank’s Bunge says monetary policy must be forward looking; Inflation remains elevated, but with increased confidence that it will fall back, we were able to cut the policy rate to provide further support to the economy.
- EU Commission modifies drone wall proposals to suggest broader European drone defence initiative, via Reuters sources.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are said to be discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year, according to Politico. Some members of the House GOP leadership circle are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House Office of Legislative Affairs and the Domestic Policy Council to develop a framework for a deal.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump is said to have confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu will not annex any part of the West Bank, according to Al Arabiya.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US President Trump’s desire for peace and dialogue is in conflict with US hostile and criminal behaviour against Iran.
- US President Trump posts “Gaza is only a part of it. The big part is, PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST!”.
- Israeli’s Defence Force says several suspects were identified crossing the yellow line and approaching IDF troops operating in the northern Gaza Strip, which constitutes a violation of the agreement; troops opened fire to remove the threat, via CGTN.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around USD 111.3k with Ethereum underperforming a touch, back below USD 4k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St and with underperformance in Japanese markets as they reopened from the extended weekend and reacted to the recent US-China tariff tensions, as well as the Japanese ruling coalition split.
- ASX 200 struggled for direction as weakness in the financial and consumer-related sectors offset the gains in materials and miners, with the latter helped by the recent upside in metal prices and with Rio Tinto gaining following its quarterly activity update.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants returned from the holiday closure and reacted to the recent US-China trade frictions and political uncertainty in Japan, while there were late headwinds after reports of China trade-related actions against the US.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are lower amid the backdrop of the tumultuous trade/tariff related headlines in which the recent softening in tone by the US on China was followed by reports overnight that China’s MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China’s Transport Ministry opened an investigation into US 301 tariffs impact on China shipping industry.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level at which the band is centred, as expected. MAS said it is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and MAS core inflation should trough in the near term but rise gradually over the course of 2026, while it added that Singapore’s economic growth has turned out stronger than expected and the output gap will remain positive in 2025.
- RBA Minutes from the September meeting stated the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, while it added that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. RBA said the market path for the cash rate is within estimates of neutral but too imprecise to guide policy and it is important to see what Q3 data shows on the economy and supply capacity, as well as noted that policy is probably still a little restrictive, but this is difficult to determine and there are still risks on both sides for the economy.
- Japan’s LDP proposes October 21st for extraordinary Diet, via FNN.
- China’s Central Bank-backed Publication will continue to uphold decisive role of market in exchange rate formation and strengthen guidance of expectations.
DATA RECAP
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q3 A) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (Q3 A) 2.9% vs Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Sep) 7.0 (Prev. 4.0); Business Conditions (Sep) 8.0 (Prev. 7.0, Rev. 8)
- Indian WPI Inflation YY (Sep) 0.13% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.52%)
2c) Asian opening report
European equity futures are mildly softer, French PM to present budget – Newsquawk European Opening News
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 01:37 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St; Japan underperformed on return from holiday/reacted to the ruling coalition split.
- China’s MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms; said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.
- DXY is a touch softer, antipodeans lag, JPY picked up as the risk sentiment soured, EUR/USD is on the rise and eyeing 1.16.
- French PM Lecornu’s government is to present a budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Aug), German ZEW (Oct), US NFIB (Sep), IEA OMR, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, ECB’s Cipollone & Villeroy, BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, Fed’s Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman, BoC’s Rogers, RBA’s Hunter & Hauser, Supply from Netherlands, Italy & Germany
- Earnings from BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson, Bellway & LVMH.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rallied to recoup some of the downside seen on Friday that had been triggered by US President Trump’s tariff offensive against China, with the rebound spurred by the softer rhetoric over the weekend by Trump who said everything will be “fine” with China, while Treasury Secretary Bessent also stated that 100% tariffs do not have to happen and that things are still in place for a Trump meeting with Chinese President Xi. The toning down of aggression on China trade from Trump had boosted sentiment and largely reversed a lot of the price action seen on Friday, while outperformance was seen in the Nasdaq and Russell, with tech gains buoying the former following a slew of deals, namely the OpenAI and Broadcom (AVGO) strategic partnership.
- SPX +1.55% at 6,654, NDX +2.18% at 24,750, DJI +1.30% at 46,073, RUT +2.62% at 2,457.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- China officially began special port fees for US ships, while it was earlier reported that China issued implementation rules on port fees on US ships and exempted China-made ships owned by US companies from port fees, while it is to adjust special port fees on US ships as needed.
- China’s MOFCOM responded to the US saying it has proposed talks with China after rare earth restrictions, in which MOFCOM stated the US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not the right way to get along with China, while it urged the US to correct its “wrong practices” as soon as possible and show sincerity in talks with China. It also stated that export curbs are not an export ban and do not prohibit exports. Furthermore, it said they held working-level talks on Monday and noted that both sides have maintained communication under the framework of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, MOFCOM later announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms.
- China Transport Ministry said it opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China’s shipping industry.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said she favours a gradual path of rate cuts over this year and into next, as well as noted that monetary policy should be focused on balancing risks to maximum employment and price stability. Paulson said gradual rate cuts should keep the job market close to full employment, and it is unclear what the neutral rate is, while she argued for caution in the rate cut pace and said the September Fed rate cut size made sense. Paulson said she sees policy as modestly restrictive and views easing along the lines of the median Summary of Economic Projections policy path as appropriate.
- US House Republicans are holding a conference call on Tuesday at 11:30EDT/16:30BST, according to Punchbowl’s Weiss citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St and with underperformance in Japanese markets as they reopened from the extended weekend and reacted to the recent US-China tariff tensions, as well as the Japanese ruling coalition split.
- ASX 200 struggled for direction as weakness in the financial and consumer-related sectors offset the gains in materials and miners, with the latter helped by the recent upside in metal prices and with Rio Tinto gaining following its quarterly activity update.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants returned from the holiday closure and reacted to the recent US-China trade frictions and political uncertainty in Japan, while there were late headwinds after reports of China trade-related actions against the US.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are lower amid the backdrop of the tumultuous trade/tariff related headlines in which the recent softening in tone by the US on China was followed by reports overnight that China’s MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China’s Transport Ministry opened an investigation into US 301 tariffs impact on China shipping industry.
- US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%) were mildly pressured following the US-China headlines, while markets also await the start of earnings season.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was uneventful for most of the session after ultimately strengthening on US President Trump’s softer rhetoric on China, which Treasury Secretary Bessent followed on from and stated that 100% tariffs do not have to happen and that Trump is on track to meet with Chinese President Xi in Korea. There were some comments from Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter), who spoke for the first time since becoming President of the Philly Fed, in which she ultimately took a dovish/neutral tone and stated that she is aligned with the median dot plot for the rate view by year-end and called for gradual rate cuts over this year and into next. However, the DXY later weakened on reports that China’s MOFCOM is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and that China’s Transport Ministry opened an investigation into the impact of US 301 tariffs on China’s shipping industry.
- EUR/USD rebounded from the prior day’s lows but with the recovery limited as attention also remains on French politics with the government to present a budget aiming to cut costs by EUR 31bln, which would cut EUR 17bln in spending and aims to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026.
- GBP/USD traded rangebound in the absence of any notable drivers and with participants awaiting UK employment and average earnings data.
- USD/JPY ultimately declined as risk sentiment deteriorated late in the session following China’s trade measures against the US.
- Antipodeans price action was little changed for the majority of Asia-Pac trade with a lack of fireworks from the RBA September meeting minutes, which stated that the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, and that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. However, there were slight headwinds later in the session following the latest US-China trade-related headlines.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were choppy following the recent lull owing to the closure of the US bond market on Monday for Columbus Day, but later gained as risk appetite soured following some negative US-China trade-related headlines.
- Bund futures edged higher but with the upside capped ahead of German ZEW data and this week’s supply.
- 10yr JGB futures held on to most of Friday’s spoils on return from the extended weekend with prices underpinned by US-China trade frictions.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures kept afloat after gaining yesterday alongside the rebound in risk appetite, although upside was capped with the latest OPEC MOMR maintaining 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged from the prior month’s assessment, while there were some recent comments from Saudi Aramco’s CEO that oil demand is resilient and there is large growth potential, but also noted that they can sustain oil production at a maximum capacity of 12mln bpd for a year without additional investments.
- Spot gold extended its ongoing rally and printed a fresh record high after breaching above USD 4150/oz.
- Copper futures marginally pulled back from yesterday’s peak amid the somewhat mixed overnight risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin steadily declined throughout the session with prices reverting to beneath the USD 114k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level at which the band is centred, as expected. MAS said it is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and MAS core inflation should trough in the near term but rise gradually over the course of 2026, while it added that Singapore’s economic growth has turned out stronger than expected and the output gap will remain positive in 2025.
- RBA Minutes from the September meeting stated the Board agreed no need for immediate reduction in the cash rate, while it added that future policy decisions are to be cautious and data dependent. RBA said the market path for the cash rate is within estimates of neutral but too imprecise to guide policy and it is important to see what Q3 data shows on the economy and supply capacity, as well as noted that policy is probably still a little restrictive, but this is difficult to determine and there are still risks on both sides for the economy.
DATA RECAP
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q3 A) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.4%)
- Singapore GDP YY (Q3 A) 2.9% vs Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Sep) 7.0 (Prev. 4.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Sep) 8.0 (Prev. 7.0, Rev. 8)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump is said to have confirmed that Israeli PM Netanyahu will not annex any part of the West Bank, according to Al Arabiya.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US President Trump’s desire for peace and dialogue is in conflict with US hostile and criminal behaviour against Iran.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to meet with US President Trump on Friday and has already shared with Trump a vision of how many Tomahawk missiles Ukraine needs, while they will discuss this on Friday. Zelensky also plans to meet with US energy and arms companies during the visit to Washington, while he urges allies to move faster on using Russian frozen assets for Ukraine.
- Russian attack on Kharkiv partially knocked out power in three districts.
- EU’s Kallas said the EU is now providing funding for a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for aggression against Ukraine, and called on other member states, countries and participants to fund it so work can really start at full scale.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Barclays UK September Consumer Spending fell 0.7% Y/Y vs prev. 0.5% Y/Y increase in August.
- French PM Lecornu’s government is to present a budget aiming to cut costs by EUR 31bln, while it would cut EUR 17bln in spending, and aims to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Sep) 2.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Sep) 2.3% (Prev. 3.1%)
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
China retaliates!! More port fees!!
Market Maelstrom Returns As China Escalates Trade War With Sanctions, Tit-For-Tat Port Fees
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 07:26 AM
Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to “fight to the end” in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump’s threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite Washington’s attempts to soften its tone over the weekend, tensions are intensifying into the new week: both countries are imposing new docking fees on each other’s vessels, signaling deepening Sino-US relations ahead of Trump-Xi talks. Adding to the flaring tensions, Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of deliberately undermining the global economy.
Trump’s move last Friday to threaten Beijing with an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, in response to China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths and ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month, signals that both sides are trying to gain as much leverage as possible before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the Trump administration’s tactics, calling them incompatible with dialogue. “If you wish to fight, we shall fight to the end; if you wish to negotiate, our door remains open,” a ministry spokesperson said.
“The United States cannot simultaneously seek dialogue while threatening to impose new restrictive measures. This is not the proper way to engage with China,” the ministry said.
On Sunday, Trump walked back his rhetoric in a Truth Social post that said “it will all be fine”, adding that the U.S. wants to “help” China. This relief sent global equities soaring on Monday, yet the outlook darkened on Tuesday after the ministry sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha.
China’s Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement that Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries, Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, are sanctioned over “assisting and supporting the U.S. government’s probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it.”
Earlier Tuesday, Beijing confirmed it had begun imposing additional port fees on vessels linked to the U.S., while clarifying that Chinese-built ships would be exempt from the new charges. This tit-for-tat followed the U.S. decision to impose on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports.
Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that Beijing is trying to damage the global economy with its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, sending some global supply chains into snarled conditions.
“This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them,” Bessent said on Monday, adding, “Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world. If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most.”
Bessent added, “They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they’re exacerbating their standing in the world.”
There’s been a flurry of developments on the U.S.-China front. UBS analyst Joe Dickinson broke down the past 24 hours, removing the noise to explain market impacts:
EStoxx fell 20bp to start, following U.S. futures lower. Commentary from both the U.S. and China on Trade was conciliatory overnight. China’s commerce ministry indicated working-level talks were held Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at the APEC Summit at the end of the month.
But price action in Asia is cautious and weaker again. Nikkei cash dropped 2.8% while futures were down 1.7%. China reopens lower in the afternoon session, with CSI300 down 80bp after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced curbs on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean in response to U.S. probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as reports that China has started charging port fees for U.S. ships. Note that Samsung slid 4% post earnings.
S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1.5%.
Sea of red across global equity futures.
Bitcoin’s rebound losing momentum.
WTI futures tumbling.
Treasuries bid. US10Y tags 4%.
Now we wait to see whether the Trump administration doubles-down on their tit-for-tat-ing or steadies the ship again?
end
THEN MID AFTERNOON
CHINA/USA STOCK MARKET
Stocks Surge, Small Caps Erase All Losses Post-Trump As USTR Says Trump-Xi Meeting Still ‘Scheduled’
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 07:26 AM
Update (1145ET): US Trade Representative Lamieson Greer told CNBC that “there is a scheduled time for that,” when asked about the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting, even as Trump has cast doubt on whether the meeting will take place because of China’s new export controls.
Greer also noted that China has now “realized they have overstepped” with its rare earths export controls that he says came “out of nowhere.”
“We’ve been pretty successful in finding a path forward with them in the past, so we think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer says
That helped extend gains in stocks, pushing Small Caps all the way up to unchanged since President Trump’s initial China ‘hostile’ tweet from Friday…
It appears the China rhetoric overnight has quickly been forgotten.
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
GERMANY
KOLBE
their home grown energy crisis in full bloom. Once they abandoned nuclear power their fate was predetermined
(Kolbe)
Germany’s Auto Summit: Spectacle Over Substance, Economy At Risk
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Politics is the art of the possible, as Otto von Bismarck famously said. The auto summit at the Chancellery shows that, in Germany, nothing seems to work anymore. Politics refuses any gradual departure from the eco-socialist course.
Thursday was an eventful day—at least from the federal government’s perspective. No sooner had Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his deputy Lars Klingbeil given the bottomless pit of “citizens’ income” a new label than they turned to the next crisis hotspot of the republic: the collapsing automotive industry.
At the auto summit convened by the Chancellor, government members, state premiers of affected regions, business representatives, and unions gathered to discuss the future of eroding automotive production.
Dramatic Situation
The situation was clear—and dramatic. Since 2018, the German automotive sector has suffered a 25 percent production decline. In just the past twelve months, 50,000 jobs have been lost. One of the pillars of the German economy is eroding—unstoppably.
The reasons are obvious: a homegrown energy crisis due to the exit from Russian gas and nuclear power, the politically forced transformation to electric mobility, and relentless competition from China. All of this makes life hell for manufacturers.
This diagnosis applies to the entire German economy. Energy-intensive production under current regulatory and energy-policy conditions is simply no longer competitive. Around 250,000 industrial jobs have been cut since 2018—well-paid skilled workers are losing their positions—so much for the supposed skills shortage.
Logic in Exile
The obvious consequence—hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk in the coming months—would be a radical course correction: the end of the ideologically ossified Green Deal, which has turned Europe into a high-risk zone for international capital.
But what counts as “normal” in German politics or in Brussels offices anymore? As with the citizens’ income, the auto summit is less about solutions than about spectacle. Willingness to reform is faked, competence feigned—while the system that created the crisis remains untouched. Illusion over substance, show over content.
The economy’s quiet grumbling over energy costs and the electric-vehicle dead end was dispersed by Merz, Klingbeil, and co. in the usual way: a new, multibillion-euro subsidy for electric cars is supposed to bring the turnaround. An instrument that recently failed has now been resurrected, as the new special fund seems to make politics’ horizons infinite.
To appease criticism within their own ranks regarding the combustion engine ban, the Chancellor floated an extension for plug-in hybrids and range extenders. But fundamentally, the combustion engine ban remains, following the SPD line, which essentially mirrors the green hardline ideology that has driven the economy to collapse. Everything else is window dressing to make the political slogan of technological openness appear meaningful.
Media Games and Hardline Ideology
Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD also spoke, harmoniously and in agreement with the substance. He endorsed pragmatism and flexibility—in plain terms: We recognize that automotive production in Germany may soon belong to the past. But essentially, that does not bother us, since we trust it will no longer be needed in eco-socialist Europe under Brussels anyway.
According to the Berlin bubble’s political vision, family cars and second vehicles will soon be relics. The future of mobility should be green, just not individual. It is based on a confused plan for state-operated public transport.
The few electric cars approved in the distant future are likely to be privileged status symbols, rarely owned, usually rented for short periods. Green revenge on the long-resisting German citizen.
To be clear: this auto summit called by the Chancellor was nothing but a political show. A carefully staged media event, fitting seamlessly into the PR games Merz treats as a form of politics. Consider the “Made for Germany” coffee klatsch, which faked an investment offensive, or the almost embarrassing rebranding of citizens’ income into basic security.
Regardless of the coalition constellation over recent years, the goal has always been the same: to consistently push the restructuring of the economy into an eco-socialist foundation in key sectors of industry and energy.
Predictable End
The ruling political ideology’s preferred solution—and the one that applies to all economic misdevelopments today—is predictable: new subsidies and another electric car purchase bonus. The summit ends as no one should be surprised. The long-dried subsidy channels of the green favored economy are flooded with fresh state credit. True to the stock-market motto: the tide lifts all boats.
Anyone following the bond markets closely can see that this policy is bound to end in fiscal, economic, and ultimately societal fiasco. About three years ago, secular shifts away from increasingly risky government bonds began, making financing of political grandiose dreams more difficult in the future. The end of this policy will come when the bond market finally lowers its thumb. Until then, we can look forward to the next summit.
end
FRANCE
automarket/Paris/Michelin
shares crash in French stock exchange
(zerohedge)
Shares Of Michelin Tank On Guidance Cut After North American Auto Market Slumps
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 08:10 AM
Shares of French tiremaker Michelin plunged in Paris, marking the steepest intraday decline since the early Covid-pandemic crash, after the company slashed its 2025 outlook and warned of a bigger-than-expected sales decline in the North America market.
Michelin now expects 2025 operating income between 2.6 billion euros and 3 billion euros, down from the previous outlook of 3.4 billion euros, citing softening agriculture, construction, and truck demand. Sales in North America plunged by nearly 10% in the third quarter, with a weaker dollar and tariffs weighing on margins.
Michelin noted that competitiveness across the tire market was “impacted by tariffs” and comes as carmakers from Europe face a slowdown in Europe amid fierce competition from China, as well as the beginning innings of trouble in the U.S. following the recent collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings. Separate, but playing into the theme, UBS warned weeks ago that consumer weakness is now spreading from low-income to middle-income.
Citi analyst Ross MacDonald called the revised guidance “worse than feared,” warning that tariff headwinds, trade-down risks, and subdued end-market demand could very well linger in the first quarter of 2026.
Also, Michelin lowered its expected free cash flow before M&A to between 1.5 billion euros and 1.8 billion euros, down from 1.7 billion euros, due to the weaker dollar.
Michelin is set to publish its third-quarter results next Wednesday. Today’s guidance update sent shares in Paris plunging as much as 11%, marking the worst intraday decline in more than five years. Peer Continental AG also fell in Frankfurt.
Year-to-date, shares are down 17.55%, and top Wall Street analysts have yet to mark a near-term turnaround, having cut target multiples due to North American sales woes.
end
FRANCE
France will inflate more!
(zerohedge)
French Stocks, Bonds Rally After French Premier Lecornu Compromises To Win Socialist Party Support To Avoid Ouster
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 01:20 PM
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu pulled off the impossible – for now – by suspending President Emmanuel Macron’s 2023 pension reform, which raised the retirement age. The desperate political maneuvering was aimed at securing crucial support from the Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly to survive no-confidence votes on Thursday, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has vowed to try to topple him.
French bond markets rallied on the news. The 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 3.4%, the lowest since mid-August, narrowing the spread over German Bunds to 79 bps. This is one of the sharpest intraday tightening moves this year. France’s CAC40 reversed most of the session’s losses as it appears Macron’s last-ditch effort of doing whatever it takes to avoid a snap election has paid off – for now.
“France’s CAC 40 benchmark closed the session 0.2% lower, after reversing most of the day’s losses. The index had fallen as much as 1.4% in early trading. A Barclays Plc basket containing companies most exposed to French domestic risks turned positive in afternoon trading and ended up 0.7% on the day, led by gains in lender Societe Generale SA, construction company Vinci SA, and telecommunications provider Orange SA,” Bloomberg EMEA Equities Managing Editor Blaise Robinson wrote in a BBG Top Live Blogs post.
Bloomberg Opinion analyst Lionel Laurent noted, “It looks like Emmanuel Macron’s last-ditch strategy of doing whatever it takes to avoid snap elections has paid off. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu appears to have clinched the support of the center-left Socialists by suspending pension reform until the 2027 presidential elections,” adding, “Meanwhile, the weakened and divided center-right Republicans are also likely to back Lecornu rather than face a potential bruising at the ballot box. That’ll be enough for this government to live to fight another day, and for markets to breathe a sigh of relief. Don’t bet on a lasting peace, though.”
On Thursday, Lecornu’s government faces no-confidence votes, backed by Le Pen’s National Rally and far-left parties. After Macron’s pension reform news, the Socialist Party said it would not vote to oust Lecornu.
“I will propose to parliament that we suspend the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election,” Lecornu said. “There will be no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028.”
He continued, “Some would like to see this parliamentary crisis turn into a crisis of the regime. That will not happen thanks to the institutions of the Fifth Republic and its supporters.”
Macron’s grip on power has eroded since last year’s failed snap elections. He has given Lecornu “carte blanche” to restore stability and end one of the worst political crises for France in years. If Lecornu loses the confidence vote on Thursday, Macron will be forced to dissolve parliament and call new elections.
Two of Lecornu’s predecessors, Michel Barnier and Francois Bayrou, have already resigned over their plans to rein in out-of-control spending, which has led to France having the largest budget deficit in the bloc.
Suspending pension overhaul marks a major retreat from Macron’s economic reform agenda, which had goals to make France “work more” to sustain growth and repair public finances.
National Rally’s Jordan Bardella wrote on X, “The only common denominator of this majority without rhyme or reason, ready for all sorts of deal-making, is the fear of the ballot boxes and the fear of the people.”
Bardella continued, “With the Faure-Macron pact, the Socialist Party allows the President of the Republic to pursue a policy massively rejected by the French. If there remains a bit of coherence and honor among certain PS deputies, they will have to make it known this Thursday during the vote on the motions of censure. Or accept, before history, to have turned their backs on the French people, ignored their expectations and their sufferings.”
All eyes on Thursday.
end
EU CHINA
this should turn out to be quite interesting!!
(zerohedge)
EU Ratchets Up China Pressure, May Force Beijing To Transfer Tech
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 12:45 PM
On Monday, the Dutch government took control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia – citing risks to Europe’s economic security after alleging “serious governance shortcomings” at the company.
One day later, and the EU is on the cusp of applying major pressure on Beijing. As Bloomberg reports, the European Union is “considering forcing Chinese firms to hand over technology to European companies if they want to operate locally,” in an aggressive new push to make the bloc more competitive – particularly when it comes to electric vehicles and the transfers of battery technology and know-how.
The new rues would apply to companies seeking access to key digital and manufacturing markets such as cars and batteries, and would also require Chinese firms to use a set amount of EU goods or labor, according to people familiar with the plans.
Another lever under discussion would be to force joint ventures.
The new rules, which would be on the table for November, would apply to all non-EU firms, with the goal of keeping China’s manufacturing from overwhelming European industry.
“We are welcoming foreign direct investment under the conditions that they are real investment,” said EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic in a Tuesday statement to reporters, following an EU trade ministers’ meeting in Horsens, Denmark, adding that the move would mean job creation in Europe, value added to Europe, and technology transfers to Europe, “as European companies have been doing when they’ve been investing in China.”
The potential move comes at a key moment in Europe – as the Chinese government’s subsidized wares have been dominating EU industries, while Beijing’s looming restrictions on rare earth minerals threaten to further hamstring the bloc’s manufacturers. That said, Bloomberg suggests targeting China is likely to provoke retaliation – potentially damaging a critical trading relationship.
“Several measures are being considered to foster a strong, competitive, and decarbonised European industry,” said Thomas Regnier, a spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm preparing the regulations, adding that “no final decision has been made regarding the exact scope and nature of these measures.” ‘Decarbonised’ eh?
The tit-for-tat between China and Europe has already begun – with the EU recently moving to double tariffs on steel imports to offset Chinese dumping, while Beijing – days later – said it would adopt new export controls on critical rare earth minerals, prompting the EU to adopt a more defensive position in regards to dependency on China – something the bloc has spent the last few years vowing to protect against. The new regulations would accelerate that effort, arriving as part of a legislative proposal called the Industrial Accelerator Act.
“The future of clean tech will continue to be made in Europe,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month. “But for that, we also need to make sure that our industry has the materials here in Europe.”
“In sum, when it comes to digital and clean tech: faster, smarter and more European,” she continued.
With its plan, the EU is mimicking Beijing, which has long put strict parameters on outside firms wanting to enter its market. Simultaneously, China has invested heavily in Europe and other parts of the world through its Belt and Road Initiative, hoovering up technical knowledge in the process. -Bloomberg
Speaking after the ministers’ meeting, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen says that the EU “should be inspired” by the move, adding “We find ourselves in new circumstances. It’s not just about free trade, free trade, free trade, even though we subscribe to this idea.”
Europe’s economy has been dragged down by Germany’s dismal performance, causing lobbying groups to call for the commission to consider drastic action to gain access to technologies for which China has developed an edge.
“It’s essential that foreign investments, such as in batteries and other clean tech, come with technology transfer and the skilling of European workforce,” according to Victor van Hoorn, director at the industry group Cleantech for Europe. “This needs to be agreed upon at EU level.”
Rasmussen backed the statement, saying “If we invite China’s investments to Europe, it must come with the precondition that we also have some kind of technology transfer.“
To wit, Europe is sucking wind when it comes to EV battery tech, with EU automakers heavily reliant on Beijing for these components.
The Chinese have already begun scaling up their presence in Europe, with companies such as BYD Co. investing in a plant in Hungary, and vowing to ramp up EV battery production across the continent.
One of China’s largest advanced battery makers, CATL, is planning to send 2,000 workers to build and staff a ($4.6 billion) battery plant in Spain in a joint venture with Stellantis.
Under the terms of the new proposal, foreign carmakers wanting to sell cars in the EU would have to locally source a specific amount of goods and services, while simplifying the permitting process for European companies.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IDF Vows To Destroy All Hamas ‘Terror Tunnels’ As Part Of Disarming Gaza
Monday, Oct 13, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that the Israeli military would destroy tunnels in Gaza after the remaining Israeli captives are released by Hamas, which has happened on Monday.
“Israel’s great challenge after the phase of returning the hostages will be the destruction of all of Hamas’s terror tunnels in Gaza, directly by the IDF and through the international mechanism to be established under the leadership and supervision of the United States,” Katz wrote on X.
“This is the primary significance of implementing the agreed-upon principle of demilitarizing Gaza and neutralizing Hamas of its weapons. I have instructed the IDF to prepare for carrying out the mission,” he added.
According to the outline of the Gaza ceasefire proposal released by the White House, all “military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt,” and there will be a “process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors.” But the details of how those steps will be taken, including who will be doing it, are unclear. A senior Hamas official has also said that Hamas won’t disarm unless it can hand its weapons to a Palestinian state.
So far, Israel and Hamas have just entered the first phase of the ceasefire deal, which involves the release of the Israeli hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli jails, the IDF pulling back to an agreed-upon line, and Israel allowing more aid to enter Gaza. Details on implementing the rest of the agreement still need to be worked out in negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
Katz’s comments come as many are concerned Israel will restart its brutal war once Hamas releases the Israeli captives. Also on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military “campaign is not over,” though he could be referring to other areas where Israel is at war or potential escalations elsewhere in the region.
“And I want to say: Everywhere we fought – we won. But in the same breath, I must tell you: The campaign is not over. There are still very great security challenges ahead of us,” Netanyahu said, according to a statement from his office. “Some of our enemies are trying to rebuild themselves to attack us again. And as we say – ‘We’re on it.’”
According to a report from Israel Hayom, the US has given Israel a guarantee that it would back Israeli military action if it determined Hamas violated the deal in a way that “poses a security threat.” The report said the understanding “constitutes a side agreement” between the US and Israel.
The US gave Israel a similar side deal for the November 2024 Lebanon ceasefire agreement, which Israel continues to violate on a near-daily basis.
END
HAMAS
Hamas carries out a wave of Gaza killings which now leaves much doubt as to whether they will disarm
(JerusalemPost)
Hamas carries out wave of Gaza killings, casting doubt on disarmament demand
Hamas has killed at least 32 people since the beginning of the ceasefire.
Gunmen stand guard at the funeral of Marwan Issa, a senior Hamas deputy military commander who was killed in an Israeli airstrike during the conflict between Israel and Hamas, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in the central Gaza Strip, February 7, 2025.(photo credit: AGUSTIN MARCARIAN/REUTERS)ByREUTERSOCTOBER 13, 2025 23:32Updated: OCTOBER 13, 2025 23:55
This article contains graphic footage that some readers may find distressing
Hamas has sought to reassert itself in Gaza since a ceasefire took hold, killing at least 32 people in a crackdown on groups that have pushed back against their tight grip on the enclave.
Greatly weakened by the IDF during the war, Hamas has gradually sent members back into the streets of Gaza since the ceasefire began on Friday, moving cautiously in case it suddenly collapses, according to two security sources in the territory.
On Monday, Hamas deployed members of its Qassam Brigades military wing as it freed the last living hostages taken from Israel over two years ago. It was a reminder of one of the major challenges facing US President Donald Trump‘s effort to secure a lasting deal for Gaza, as the US, Israel, and many other nations demand that Hamas disarm.
Reuters footage showed dozens of Hamas terrorists lined up at a hospital in southern Gaza, one wearing a shoulder patch identifying him as a member of the elite “Shadow Unit” that Hamas sources say was tasked with guarding hostages.
One of the Gaza sources, a security official, said that since the ceasefire, Hamas forces had killed 32 members of “a gang affiliated with a family in Gaza City,” while six of its personnel had also been killed.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3961208&url=www.jpost.comMoments before Hamas executes clan members in Gaza.Later on Monday, a video circulating on social media appeared to show several masked gunmen, some of them wearing green headbands resembling ones worn by Hamas, shooting with machine guns at least seven men after forcing them to kneel in the street. Posts identified the video as filmed in Gaza on Monday. Civilian spectators cheered “Allah Akbar,” or God is Great, and called those killed “collaborators.”
Reuters could not immediately verify the events of the video, its date or location. There was no immediate response from Hamas.
Last month, Hamas-led authorities said they executed three men accused of collaborating with Israel. The video of the public killing was shared on social media.
Temporary policing role?
Trump’s plan foresees Hamas out of power in a demilitarized Gaza run by a Palestinian committee under international supervision. It calls for the deployment of an international stabilization mission that will train and support a Palestinian police force.
But Trump, speaking on his way to the Middle East, suggested Hamas had been given a temporary green light to police Gaza.
“They do want to stop the problems, and they’ve been open about it, and we gave them approval for a period of time,” he said, responding to a journalist’s question about reports that Hamas was shooting rivals and instituting itself as a police force.
After the ceasefire took effect, Ismail Al-Thawabta, head of Hamas’ Gaza government media office, told Reuters the group would not allow a security vacuum and that it would maintain public safety and property.
Hamas has ruled out any discussion of its arsenal, saying it would be ready to surrender its arms to a future Palestinian state. The group has said it seeks no role in Gaza’s future governing body, but that this should be agreed upon by Palestinians with no foreign control.
Internal conflict with clans
As the war dragged on, a diminished Hamas faced growing internal challenges to its control of Gaza from groups with which it has long been at odds, often affiliated with clans.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this year that Israel had been arming clans that oppose Hamas, without identifying them.
In Gaza City, Hamas has mostly battled the Doghmosh clan, residents and Hamas sources said.
The security official did not identify the “gang” who had been targeted in Gaza City, nor say whether it had been suspected of receiving support from Israel.
The most prominent anti-Hamas clan leader is Yasser Abu Shabab, who is based in the Rafah area – an area from which Israel has yet to withdraw.
Offering attractive salaries, his group has recruited hundreds of fighters, a source close to Abu Shabab told Reuters earlier this year. Hamas calls him a collaborator with Israel, which he denies.
The Gaza security official said that separate from the clashes in Gaza City, Hamas security forces had killed Abu Shabab’s “right-hand man” and efforts were underway to kill Abu Shabab himself.
Abu Shabab did not immediately respond to questions on the official’s comments. Reuters could not immediately verify the claim that his aide had been killed.
Hussam al-Astal, another anti-Hamas figure based in Khan Yunis, taunted the group in a video message on Sunday, saying that once it hands over the hostages, its role and rule in Gaza would be over.
Palestinian analyst Reham Owda said Hamas’s actions were aimed at deterring groups that had collaborated with Israel. Hamas also aimed to show that its security officers should be part of a new government, though this would be rejected by Israel, she said.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Returning hostage remains from Gaza may take ‘weeks,’ Red Cross spokesperson says
“That’s an even bigger challenge than having the people alive being released. That’s a massive challenge,” said the ICRC’s spokesperson Christian Cardon.
A Red Cross vehicle transports hostages, held in Gaza since the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, following their handover as part of a ceasefire and hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza City October 13, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ebrahim Hajjaj)ByREUTERSOCTOBER 14, 2025 14:33Updated: OCTOBER 14, 2025 14:35
The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Tuesday it will take time to hand over the remains of hostages and detainees killed in the Israel-Hamas War, calling it a “massive challenge” given the difficulties of finding bodies amid Gaza’s rubble.
“That’s an even bigger challenge than having the people alive being released. That’s a massive challenge,” said the ICRC’s spokesperson Christian Cardon, adding it could take days or weeks and that there was a possibility they would never be found.
“I think that there is clearly a risk that that will take much more time. What we are telling the parties is that that should be their top priority,” he added.
He declined to provide further details about the possible whereabouts of the deceased hostages, citing the sensitivity of the ongoing operation.
Hamas yet to live up to its end of the deal
Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday under a ceasefire deal, and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees as US President Donald Trump declared an end to the two-year war.
Only four coffins containing the remains of deceased hostages have so far been returned to Israel, leaving the remains of another two dozen yet to be located and returned.
end
SYRIA/RUSSIA
this is interesting!!. What will Israel do?
Syria Set To Allow Russia To Keep Its Strategic Military Bases In Country
Monday, Oct 13, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Since the fall of longtime Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in December of last year, which has since drastically changed Syria into a hardline Sunni state no longer aligned with Tehran or Moscow, Russia’s military began slowly moving its military assets from the region, essentially packing up its bases.
Moscow has been seeking to negotiate with the new regime regime in Damascus to keep its two historic bases on the coast, especially the naval base at Tartus, which was for decades Russia’s only deep-water Mediterranean naval port.
Behind the scenes negotiations have seem stalled for months, with little news, however, on Monday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in after being silent on the issue. Khmeimim Air Base has lately played host to thousands of Alawite and Christian refugees being persecuted by Sunni radicals, including by government Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) troops.
Lavrov made clear that the Sharaa government is looking favorably on allowing Russia to keep its military presence on the coast, but under the guise of a more humanitarian and logistics purpose.
“Syria would like to maintain Russian military bases in the country, but may repurpose them for different tasks amid new realities, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during a meeting with journalists from Arab countries,” according to TASS.
“The Syrian side is interested in maintaining our military bases there. As our president has repeatedly said, we will be guided by Syria’s interests in this matter,” he emphasized. “It is clear that under the new circumstances, these bases may play a different role, not just as military outposts,” Lavrov added.
“In particular, given the need to establish humanitarian flows to Africa, these may be sea and air bases serving as humanitarian hubs for sending humanitarian cargoes there, including to the Sahara-Sahel zone and other countries in need,” Lavrov specified.
Damascus and its new rulers may have come to the practical conclusion that it’s better for Russia to have a foothold in the region, at a moment Israel has continued to bomb Syrian cities and military sites with impunity.
If nothing else, a superpower’s military being on the ground, even if just on the coast, could prove diplomatically beneficial to Syria – at a moment it has no anti-air defenses to speak of.
Russia and Turkey could be seen as playing a balancing act in the region in the face of Israeli aggression. Russia still has its own powerful anti-air defenses which protect its coastal assets, also near Latakia.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukrainian drones strike Crimea’s largest oil terminal
(zerohedge)
Ukrainian Drones Spark Massive Blaze At Crimea’s Largest Oil Terminal
Monday, Oct 13, 2025 – 07:40 PM
Just a day after a major report in the Financial Times said that US intelligence has been helping Ukraine conduct long-range drone strikes on Russian oil facilities since at least July, major oil depot in Crimea caught fire overnight following a Ukrainian drone strike.
This marks the second time in a week that the the Feodosia facility has been struck and gone up in flames. Importantly, it is Crimea’s largest oil storage and transshipment hub, with a capacity of around 250,000 tons.
Russian sources say that air defenses intercepted more than 20 drones targeting a fuel storage facility in the port city. The attack resulted in no casualties, amid a large emergency response to battle the blaze.
NASA’s fire monitoring system detected multiple active fires at the site, according to international reports.
In total Ukrainian forces sent some 40 drones to various areas of Crimea, and dozens more were sent against other targets in Russian territory.
Kiev and its Western backers have a clearly articulated objective to disrupt a key source of revenue funding Moscow’s war effort – which has resulted in some success, given the reports of fuel and gasoline shortages, and rising prices across Russia.
Ukraine’s military leadership has of late boasted that the operation over several months has cut Russia’s oil refining capacity by 21%.
A source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent: “Drones hit at least five tanks. A large-scale fire is recorded on the territory of the oil depot,” the source said.
At a moment Russia’s refinery woes are getting worse, the question of the US providing Tomahawks still remains an open one, and the Kremlin has said it would be “surprised” if the White House allowed such a serious and brazen escalation.
International estimates are that thus far during the war Ukraine has struck at least 21 out of Russia’s 38 refineries, some of them more than once, which has proven costly – also as sanctions have made it hard to find parts for quick repairs.
END
RUSSIA/USA
Russia issues a warning to the uSA not to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Another Nuclear Warning From Medvedev, This Time Over Tomahawks
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a nuclear warning in the face of reports that Washington may authorize transferring US long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
President Trump’s latest remarks weighing in on the issue saw him veil his intentions in usually cryptic wording. Aboard Air Force One while traveling to the Middle East earlier Monday he had said Tomahawks are a “very offensive weapon,” noting, “honestly, Russia does not need that.”
Headlines throughout the say said he ‘might’ approve of sending them. These are missiles capable of hitting Moscow. This is also as last month Trump surprised observers by claiming that Ukraine could still ‘win’ the war and actually regain territory.
Medvedev’s chilling response on Monday spelled out that this “could end badly for everyone … most of all, for Trump himself,” according to a translation of his Telegram post.
“It’s been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it’s impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight,” Medvedev, who serves as the Russian Security Council Deputy Chair, further noted.
Medvedev here is alluding to Russian strategic doctrine. In a scenario where Moscow leaders believed or suspected a nuclear payload had been launched at Russia, its military would have the right to respond in kind, with nukes.
The past couple months have seen Trump and Medvedev direct threatening messages at each other, particularly related to Trump proclaiming that he had deployed a pair of nuclear submarines somewhere near Russia.
Thankfully it has all so far been confined to social media barbs, and not any clear instance of either side’s strategic forces being placed on emergency alert.
But Medvedev’s latest message is meant as a clear ‘red line’ warning to Washington – that things could rapidly and uncontrollably escalate in Ukraine if the US sends Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia.
President Zelensky has meanwhile sought to make clear he won’t target anything but military sites with them, in an effort to convince Washington these long-range missiles can be deployed ‘responsibly’.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/ISIS
Ukraine using ISIS for assassination plot?
(zerohedge)
Russia Accuses Ukrainian Intelligence Of Using ISIS For Assassination Plot
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 06:30 AM
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stated on Monday that its officers foiled a terrorist attack in Moscow that was planned by ISIS under the direction of Ukrainian intelligence.
ISIS operatives sought to target a high-ranking Russian Defense Ministry official using an explosive device in a densely populated area of the capital city, the agency said in a statement.
“The FSB has prevented a sabotage and terrorist act against one of the senior officers of the Russian Defense Ministry, organized by Ukrainian special services in coordination with leaders of the international terrorist organization Islamic State (banned as a terrorist organization in Russia),” the FSB statement said.
Four suspects connected to the plot were detained, including a native of a Central Asian country. The FSB alleged that the plan was developed by Ukrainian intelligence and would have been carried out by a suicide bomber recruited by an ISIS member named Saidakbar Gulomov.
“On instructions from Ukrainian handlers, S. Gulomov remotely directed the perpetrator’s actions from Ukraine and several Western European countries using multiple foreign messaging applications,” the FSB added.
Gulomov allegedly provided the attacker with funds, information about the target, and materials for assembling explosive devices smuggled into Russia by Ukrainian intelligence using drones.
According to the FSB, Gulomov was also involved in the killing of Russian Lieutenant General Kirillov, commander of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, in December 2024.
The FSB claims the attack on Kirillov was also orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence. Monday’s foiled terror attack “once again demonstrates the close coordination between the Kiev regime and international terrorist organizations,” the Russian intelligence service stated.
In March 2024, four gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, opening fire on the more than 5,000 people gathered to watch the Russian rock group Piknik. At least 145 people were killed in the attack.
Russian authorities blamed the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, for the attack, while also accusing Ukrainian intelligence of orchestrating it.
“The investigation has concluded that the terrorist act was planned and organized by the security services of an unfriendly state in order to destabilize the situation in Russia,” stated the Russian Investigative Committee, which was tasked with determining who was responsible. “Members of an international terrorist organization were recruited to carry it out.”
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Bombshell Vax vs. Unvax Study Finally Sees the Light of Day — And the Results Are Staggering | The Gateway Pundit | by Vigilant Fox
Crazy
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/bombshell-vax-vs-unvax-study-finally-sees-light/
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Lou Koller has cancer again; NY Giants owner John Mara has cancer; LA Council’s Curren Price collapses at event; Bucs’ Skip Peete collapses at practice; Olympian Laurie Hernandez has POTS
Fever’s Kelsey Mitchell wracked by numbness, cramping; NASCAR driver Tyler Reddick’s 4-month-old in cardiovascular ICU; gaming pioneer Rebecca Heinemann has cancer in lungs, liver; more
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 13 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Celebs:
UNITED STATES
‘Sick Of It All’s Lou Koller Says ‘Cancer Has Returned’ Just Months After Treatment
September 30, 2025
Lou Koller, the iconic vocalist and co-founder of the legendary band Sick Of It All, has shared difficult news about his health. Just four months after announcing he was “cancer free” following chemotherapy for an esophageal tumor, Koller has revealed that the cancer has unfortunately returned. Diagnosed in June 2024 with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus, Koller’s initial diagnosis led Sick Of It All to pause all band projects. After months of treatment, he celebrated a hopeful milestone in May 2025 when he announced the cancer was gone. However, in a video message posted on Tuesday, September 30, Koller opened up about his recent struggles and the cancer’s return. “Hey, everybody, what’s up? It’s Lou here. I don’t know if you can tell it’s me with my new skeletal look that I have going on. Here’s an update for you: it’s not one I want to make, but unfortunately the cancer has come back, and he’s brought some friends with him,” he revealed to his followers. Koller co-founded Sick Of It All in Queens, New York, in 1986 alongside his brother Pete Koller.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
No age reported.
‘We Need Prayers’: Catholic Comedian Jennifer Fulwiler’s Daughter Diagnosed with Brain Tumor
October 6, 2025
Catholic comedian, author, and speaker Jennifer Fulwiler announced on Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, that her eldest daughter was diagnosed with a brain tumor. Fulwiler revealed on her podcast, The Jen Fulwiler Show, that her daughter is currently in the ICU and undergoing a multiple-hour brain surgery involving several brain surgeons. “We need prayers. My oldest daughter, a sophomore in college, was just diagnosed with a brain tumor. This is all happening very quickly. We just got the diagnosis 48 hours ago, as of this recording,” Fulwiler says as she opens her show. “She was just having headaches, and we did some quick scans to rule things out,” Fulwiler continues. Fulwiler adds that the brain surgery will occur on Monday, October 6, and will be “between eight and 12 hours long with a team of five neurosurgeons. She is currently in the intensive care unit.”
No age reported.
Olympian Laurie Hernandez, 25, Reveals Unexpected Health Diagnosis: ‘Would You Look at That’
October 3, 2025
Laurie Hernandez, one member of the “Final Five” women’s Olympic gymnastics team, which took home the Gold in 2016, is asking for a little help after a recent health diagnosis. The 25-year-old took to TikTok this week to reveal she has postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or POTS—a diagnosis she received among several other suspicions. “gimme ur best and most outta pocket POTS hacks,” she requested over a video of herself sitting on the couch, looking at her laptop screen with a Starbucks cup in her hand before scanning over to meet the eye of the camera and sending viewers a bemused grimace. “I thought maybe anxiety? Asthma? High blood sugar post eating bc I was getting exhausted? Depression? Hot flashes startin hella early?” she listed off a series of her differential diagnoses in the caption, before revealing what her testing had uncovered. “but technically, no! Did a tilt table test last week and sure enough!! would u look at that!!” The gymnast added that she was seated with her salt water and compression socks, dealing with “the worst week ever” following the test, admitting she’s been “a tired weepy mess” and reiterating her request for all of her POTS-suffering followers’ “wacky favorites.”
It’s a form of orthostatic intolerance that causes a person’s heart to beat too fast when moving from sitting or lying down to standing up. In people without POTS, the body’s autonomic nervous system works to maintain homeostasis, or balance, and regulates the heart rate and blood pressure at the correct pace. In POTS, it’s not always able to, which can lead to symptoms like dizziness, fatigue, and even fainting. There’s no cure for POTS, and its symptoms and treatments vary greatly from person to person, but, according to the Cleveland Clinic, exercise and physical activity and diet and nutrition are the main focuses in symptom management.
Researcher’s Note – Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome can be found on the List of Adverse Events in Pfizer’s Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine [sic] Post Marketing Experience Report under: APPENDIX 1. LIST OF ADVERSE EVENTS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: Link
Fever star Kelsey Mitchell opens up about medical scare that caused her ‘sense of numbness’
October 2, 2025
Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell [29] has been a bright spot for the team all season as the roster saw several star players, including Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham, go down for the season due to injury. But Mitchell had a scary moment herself during the game. Mitchell was about to drive along the baseline in the fourth quarter when Aliyah Boston was called for her fifth foul. The veteran guard stood in the key for a moment and grabbed onto an official’s arm, appearing to signal that she needed some help. She gingerly went down to the floor as Fever players and staff came over to tend to her. She was helped off the floor and into the locker room. The Fever said Mitchell was taken to the hospital for severe cramping. On Wednesday, Mitchell revealed she suffered from a medical condition called rhabdomyolysis that could prevent her muscles from functioning properly. “I suffered from something called Rhabdomyolysis last night. My muscles stopped producing and reached its maximum capacity,” she wrote. “I went into a sense of numbness/paralyzing feeling with no movement from my lower extremities for up to 5 to 7 seconds. I panicked because I began to think the worse when I felt I couldn’t move my legs. It was an out of body experience and I thank God for covering me at a time like that.” Mitchell was released late Tuesday night from a Las Vegas-area hospital after receiving fluids for what was initially described as extreme cramping by Fever officials. Indiana Coach Stephanie White specified in her postgame comments that Mitchell experienced “a lot of lower body cramping.” Mitchell is expected to make a full recovery, with her social media post noting, “I will be fine very soon.”
Researcher’s Note – Her father, Mark Mitchell, a longtime high school and college basketball coach, died suddenly in March at age 56: Link
Bucs assistant Skip Peete collapses at practice but is alert, stable
October 1, 2025
TAMPA, FL — Bucs running backs coach Skip Peete collapsed during a walk-through practice at the team’s indoor facility Wednesday and was transported by paramedics to a local hospital. Peete was awake and alert, and the team said his condition was stable. “During this morning’s walk-through practice, running backs coach Skip Peete experienced a medical episode,” the Bucs said in a statement. “He was attended to by team medical personnel and was responsive, coherent, and in stable condition prior to being transported off site for further medical evaluations. Additional updates will be provided as they become available.” Peete, 62, has coached running backs in the NFL since 1998 with the Raiders, Cowboys, Bears, Rams and Bucs. He joined Todd Bowles’ staff in 2023 after a second stint in Dallas.
Researcher’s Note – Only vaccinated [sic] personnel in locker rooms on NFL game days: Link
New York Giants owner John Mara announces devastating cancer diagnosis and undergoing treatment plan
September 29, 2025
New York Giants owner John Mara announced Monday that he is battling cancer. The Giants CEO’s announcement added that he will be undergoing a treatment plan to fight the serious illness. The 70-year-old announced that he has recently been told by doctors that he has cancer and that he will now receive medical treatment. “I have recently been diagnosed with cancer and have been following the treatment plan recommended by an outstanding team of doctors,” Mara wrote. “I’m feeling strong and optimistic, and I’m committed to seeing this through to a positive outcome.” The Mara family has an estimated net worth of $3 billion, and John’s net worth is approximately $500 million.
4-month-old son of NASCAR driver Tyler Reddick in intensive care
September 28, 2025
The wife of NASCAR driver Tyler Reddick on Sunday said the couple’s 4-month-old son is in the cardiovascular intensive care unit at a North Carolina hospital. Alexa Reddick posted to social media that doctors are working on improving the “heart function” of Rookie, the couple’s second son who was born in May. She wrote she had been seeking medical care for Rookie for some time without getting any concrete answers for what appeared to be “signs of heart failure that were being missed.” “Always trust your mom gut,” she added. Tyler Reddick, who has not discussed his son’s heath battle, finished seventh in Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway.
Gaming pioneer Rebecca Heineman diagnosed with cancer, launches GoFundMe: ‘I want to keep creating games’
October 6, 2025
Rebecca Heineman, a trailblazer in the video game industry and developer of over 70 titles including The Bard’s Tale III, has revealed she is battling aggressive adenocarcinoma, a form of cancer that has already spread to her lungs and liver. In an emotional post on her GoFundMe page, Heineman shared that the diagnosis has left her nearly bedridden and in constant pain. “I’m in pain. I’ve been diagnosed with adenocarcinoma a few weeks ago and I went from being an active outgoing computer nerd into a nearly bedridden cancer patient who is non stop exhausted,” she wrote. Heineman first suspected something was wrong while attending PAX Prime, where she found herself out of breath after climbing a single flight of stairs. After returning home to Dallas, she sought emergency care and discovered 2,300ml of fluid in her lung cavity. “They drained another 1600ml a week later. After cat scans, X-rays, and blood tests they finally found that the cancer is in my lungs and liver,” she wrote.
No age reported.
Councilman’s On-Stage Emergency Prompts Mayor Bass To Rush To His Aid
October 1, 2025
LOS ANGELES, CA — A member of the Los Angeles City Council was hospitalized Wednesday after suffering a health issue on stage at a public event Wednesday. Mayor Karen Bass — a former nurse — helped tend to him before paramedics arrived. City Councilman Curren Price, 74, was in attendance at the Wednesday morning event celebration the groundbreaking of the Los Angeles Convention Center expansion project. He appeared to become dizzy as people were speaking at the event and ended up lying on the ground behind the podium, KTLA reported. The station posted a video of the incident. Los Angeles Fire Department paramedics responded to the scene and placed the councilman in a wheelchair and took him to a waiting ambulance. “During today’s groundbreaking for the expansion of the Los Angeles Convention Center, Council member Curren Price experienced a health-related incident,” Price spokeswoman Angelina Valencia-Dumarot said in a statement. “After undergoing initial evaluations, medical experts determined that he was suffering from dehydration. Out of an abundance of caution, he will continue to be monitored.”
Researcher’s note – Councilmember Curren Price Encourages Community To Get Vaccinated [sic]: Link
New Mexico State Investment Council’s chief investment officer to retire following cancer diagnosis
September 30, 2025
One of New Mexico’s top investment officials, Robert “Vince” Smith, is retiring following a cancer diagnosis, state officials announced last week. Smith has worked at the New Mexico State Investment Council for 15 years, and as the deputy state and chief investment officer, is the highest-paid employee in the state’s executive branch, earning $455,000 annually, according to state filings.
No age reported.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Unprecedented Times: “It’s Hard To Keep Up, Even By Experienced Folks”
By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank
That we are living in unprecedented times was borne out by events in the last couple of days again. Indeed, it is probably hard to keep up, even by experienced folks.
The London silver market saw the spot price of silver pushing above $51 per troy ounce on Friday (and higher again this morning) due to a short squeeze and shortage of silver in London vaults. Some say the situation now, in particular the lack of liquidity, is comparable or even worse than in the early 1980s when the famous Hunt brothers tried to corner the market (after which silver crashed).
Meanwhile, crypto markets saw on Friday what data tracker Coinglass dubbed the “largest liquidation in history”, leading to hefty declines in cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. But significant losses were also recorded in global equity markets, with the S&P500 down 2.7% and investors seeking refuge in ‘safe-haven’ bond markets (10Y USTs -11bp, German Bunds -6bp).
That volatility was clearly driven by the strong-worded warnings by President Trump at the address of China (more on that below), although there were other factors at play, including (geo)political instability. Indeed, just name me one country where the political situation is stable, where there is no ‘polarization’ of society and where policy making is ‘boring’… Still thinking?
In France, newly appointed PM Lecornu, who threw in the towel last week after trying to glue together a group of parties able to steer a budget through parliament was re-appointed by President Macron, again with the same task: …to glue together a group of parties able to steer a budget through parliament. On Sunday President Macron announced the new cabinet, headed by Lecornu.
The turn of events, including Lecornu’s conclusion that it should be possible to reach a deal on the 2026 budget, supported French bonds on Friday. But we think there is not much scope for a further rally in the near term. In fact, as we pointed out last week, we think there is not much scope for a further rally in the near term. Political risks remain until the budget negations are concluded. Both key parties on the far left and right have already indicated they will not support this cabinet and so Lecornu will need all the support he can get elsewhere. It is not to be excluded that he will be toppled again in a no-confidence vote this week. But if he stays, negotiations are likely to remain tough. Most parties underscore the need for a budget, but they will undoubtedly demand (further) concessions, which may weaken fiscal consolidation. In the longer run, that leaves the French curve more vulnerable to future fiscal setbacks.
However, the political focus shifted back to Japan last Friday as the long-standing LDP-Komeito coalition collapsed following Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader. She was set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister after Shigeru Ishiba stepped down, but Komeito withdrew support over disagreements, particularly on stricter party funding rules. While Takaichi’s leadership is now uncertain, she may still retain power if she can secure backing from parts of the fragmented opposition. Otherwise, snap elections are a real possibility.
This political instability is likely to keep risk premiums elevated, weighing on the yen. However, currency strategist Jane Foley notes that Takaichi may not necessarily favor a weak JPY policy, especially given her concerns about imported inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. A more unifying successor could also trigger a rebound in the yen, which briefly rose above 153 against the USD last week. Finance Minister Kato’s intensified rhetoric has also fueled speculation of potential intervention, especially if yen weakness isn’t driven by fundamentals. Reflecting recent USD strength, we’ve revised our 3-month USD/JPY forecast to 147.00 (from 145), assuming a BoJ rate hike before year-end. Nonetheless, near-term risks point to a possible snapback in JPY value.
But before the market really had had time to start worrying in earnest about the political situation in Japan, the attention shifted back to the US. After waking up (that is, assuming the man sleeps) on Friday, President Trump said he saw “no reason” to meet President Xi of China in October, whilst threatening a restriction on certain US software exports and warning that he would add tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods beginning on Nov 1.
The main reason behind the strongly worded response by Trump – which followed several months in which the US and China had constructive talks and in which it even appeared as if the US administration was trying to stabilize its relation with China – was the renewed tightening of export controls on critical raw materials, particularly rare earth materials, by China. Last week, China also introduced port fees on US ships (in reaction to the port fees levied by the US on Chinese (built/operated) ships). And there were reports that China had been intensifying customs inspections of semiconductor imports. In other words, the Chinese hit a nerve there.
Now the key question is whether this is the re-start of the trade war between the two, or ‘merely’ an opening salvo for the discussion that should ultimately settle things and bring about a more durable stability. Recall that whilst the US and China extended their trade truce for another three months back in August, that was obviously not the final ‘deal’.
The answer to this question, however, is not obvious and, in fact, path-dependent. In other words, it may depend on what other steps each side take and how this is interpreted by the counterparty. And there is an element of randomness here. Or lack of full information. For example, was President Trump fully aware of the actions by his Bureau of Industry and Security department, which on 29 September issued a new rule that strengthens its control over exports? For China may have interpreted this as the US not sticking with the trade truce. Moreover, emotions may be just as important as economic reason, especially when one side is driven by eagerness to strike ‘deals’ whilst the other side is looking for a stable and predictable relationship. But we can make a few observations.
First, both the US and China have offered offramps and clarifications over the weekend. Starting with the US, Trump later posted a statement on Truth Social saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” Whilst US VP Vance called on Beijing to “choose the path of reason”, warning that the US would have significantly more leverage it could use, Trump told reporters on Sunday that “November 1 is an eternity for me. For somebody else, is right around the corner. For me, when I hear November 1, it’s an eternity.” China, meanwhile, clarified its recent decisions to tighten export controls over the weekend, with a Commerce Ministry statement noting that export controls are not the same as a ban on exports. Again, that may be to signal that this decision was not meant to re-ignite a trade war. But of course it’s decision has underscored China’s significant leverage in this particular area: in certain critical raw materials and rare earths – which also serve as key inputs in the US strategic military complex – it can pull all the strings.
Second, with this China is showing its confidence and a willingness to engage in a more confrontational trade-war with the US, if necessary. This is in contrast to how other nations and trade blocs, such as the EU, have engaged with the US. It may thus also give China more leverage vis-à-vis other players in future if it succeeds in demonstrating its statecraft powers.
In any case, it means that all kinds of scenarios still remain possible, even when things appear to be ‘settled’; a sobering conclusion for all global players involved.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1571 UP 0.0026 PTS OR 26 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 151.74 DOWN 0.704 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3277 DOWN .0055 OR 55 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4053 UP 0.0014 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 24.47 PTS OR 0.62%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 448.48 PTS OR 1.73%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.27%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 448,41 PTS OR 1.73%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.27 POINTS OR 0.62%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.27 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN A HUGE 1214.06 PTS OR 2.58%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4103.80
silver:$51.32
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.04 UP 0 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.994% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.664% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.241 UP 3 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.143 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.428 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.591 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1577 UP 0.0011 OR 11 basis points
USA/Japan: 151.99 DOWN 0.567 OR YEN IS UP 57 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.587 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.389 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.4048
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1398 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1453
TURKISH LIRA: 41.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.664 DOWN 3 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.241 UP 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.038% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.626 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.493 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 4120.00
SILVER AT 1;00: 50.94
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 9.90 PTS OR 0.10%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 150.99 pts or 0.62%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 14.64 pts or 0.18%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 44.80pts or 0.29%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 120.85 or 0.27%
WTI Oil price 58.40 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.10 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.34 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 80/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.162 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.727 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1607 UP 0.0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3327 DOWN .0004 OR 4 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.587 DOWN 8 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.393 DOWN 7 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.661 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.229 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.728 DOWN 0.731 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4036 DOWN 0.0001 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 1 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.72
Brent OIL: 6232
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.022
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1/2 PTS to 4.634%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 0 PTS AT 3.522%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.140 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.710 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.71 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.82 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.21UP 1 AND 93/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,148.70 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 51.80 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 202.88 OR 0.44%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 158.52 PTS OR 0.64%
VOLATILITY INDEX 20.77 UP 1.74 PTS OR 9.72%
GLD: $ 381.04 UP 2.95 PTS OR 0.78%
SLV/ $46.50 DOWN 0.46 PTS OR OR 0.903%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 501.26 PTS OR 1.68%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
US-China Headline Roulette & Dovish Powell Leave Bonds, Gold, & Small Caps Higher
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY
Stocks Dump As Trump Says China Committing “Economically Hostile Act”
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 03:45 PM
Update (1540ET): Just when you thought it was safe to buy the f**king dip, President Trump takes to social media and spoils the day’s gains again…
“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.
We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.
As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”
The result was a an instant wave of selling pressure:
* * *
Update (1145ET): US Trade Representative Lamieson Greer told CNBC that “there is a scheduled time for that,” when asked about the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting, even as Trump has cast doubt on whether the meeting will take place because of China’s new export controls.
Greer also noted that China has now “realized they have overstepped” with its rare earths export controls that he says came “out of nowhere.”
“We’ve been pretty successful in finding a path forward with them in the past, so we think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer says
That helped extend gains in stocks, pushing Small Caps all the way up to unchanged since President Trump’s initial China ‘hostile’ tweet from Friday…
It appears the China rhetoric overnight has quickly been forgotten.
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600 GPD under-sink reverse osmosis (on sale)
1,200 GPD – Alkalizing with UV sterilization, comes with 2-years of filters
2.25 Gallon Countertop Gravity System
* * *
Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to “fight to the end” in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump’s threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite Washington’s attempts to soften its tone over the weekend, tensions are intensifying into the new week: both countries are imposing new docking fees on each other’s vessels, signaling deepening Sino-US relations ahead of Trump-Xi talks. Adding to the flaring tensions, Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of deliberately undermining the global economy.
Trump’s move last Friday to threaten Beijing with an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, in response to China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths and ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month, signals that both sides are trying to gain as much leverage as possible before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the Trump administration’s tactics, calling them incompatible with dialogue. “If you wish to fight, we shall fight to the end; if you wish to negotiate, our door remains open,” a ministry spokesperson said.
“The United States cannot simultaneously seek dialogue while threatening to impose new restrictive measures. This is not the proper way to engage with China,” the ministry said.
On Sunday, Trump walked back his rhetoric in a Truth Social post that said “it will all be fine”, adding that the U.S. wants to “help” China. This relief sent global equities soaring on Monday, yet the outlook darkened on Tuesday after the ministry sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha.
China’s Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement that Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries, Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, are sanctioned over “assisting and supporting the U.S. government’s probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it.”
Earlier Tuesday, Beijing confirmed it had begun imposing additional port fees on vessels linked to the U.S., while clarifying that Chinese-built ships would be exempt from the new charges. This tit-for-tat followed the U.S. decision to impose on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports.
Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that Beijing is trying to damage the global economy with its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, sending some global supply chains into snarled conditions.
“This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them,” Bessent said on Monday, adding, “Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world. If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most.”
Bessent added, “They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they’re exacerbating their standing in the world.”
There’s been a flurry of developments on the U.S.-China front. UBS analyst Joe Dickinson broke down the past 24 hours, removing the noise to explain market impacts:
EStoxx fell 20bp to start, following U.S. futures lower. Commentary from both the U.S. and China on Trade was conciliatory overnight. China’s commerce ministry indicated working-level talks were held Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at the APEC Summit at the end of the month.
But price action in Asia is cautious and weaker again. Nikkei cash dropped 2.8% while futures were down 1.7%. China reopens lower in the afternoon session, with CSI300 down 80bp after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced curbs on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean in response to U.S. probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as reports that China has started charging port fees for U.S. ships. Note that Samsung slid 4% post earnings.
S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1.5%.
Sea of red across global equity futures.
Bitcoin’s rebound losing momentum.
WTI futures tumbling.
Treasuries bid. US10Y tags 4%.
Now we wait to see whether the Trump administration doubles-down on their tit-for-tat-ing or steadies the ship again?
DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Johnson Warns Current Government Shutdown Could Be Longest Ever
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 09:05 AM
Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Oct. 13 that he thinks the ongoing federal government shutdown might become the longest in the nation’s history, and that he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats until they abandon their health care demands to reopen.
Speaking to reporters at the Capitol on the shutdown’s 13th day, Johnson said he wasn’t aware of the details surrounding the Trump administration laying off thousands of federal workers during the lapse in funding.
Some critics, including Democrats, have cast the mass layoffs as a way for the administration to reduce the size of the federal government.
“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history,” Johnson said.
With negotiations between Democrats and Republicans at a stalemate, the shutdown is expected to endure for the foreseeable future.
Not only have routine government operations been impacted or paused, but the Smithsonian museums and other cultural institutions have closed their doors.
American air travel has also been impacted, with the shutdown exacerbating an existing shortage of air traffic controllers, leading to delays at airports nationwide.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the shutdown had already begun to affect the U.S. economy but did not elaborate.
The House of Representatives is currently out of legislative session, and Johnson has thus far not called lawmakers back to Washington after the lower chamber passed the GOP-backed continuing resolution to reopen the government. The Senate will return to work Tuesday after being closed for a federal holiday on Monday.
The Senate GOP needs 60 votes on its continuing resolution, which extended government funding at the existing level before the shutdown, to reopen the government. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has pinned blame on Democrats, who have insisted on a permanent extension to certain COVID-19 era health care subsidies that are expiring this year.
Democrats say millions of Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act for health insurance will see subsidies expiring in December, leading to rising costs. Republicans have said the issue should be discussed after the government reopens.
With open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act set to begin on Nov. 1, some Americans may see their monthly health insurance premiums “more than double” with next year’s enrollment if Congress does not extend the subsidies expiring on Dec. 31, according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
One of the Democrats who has voted for the Senate GOP-backed continuing resolutions is Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who on Sunday criticized his party for sending the wrong signal on the shutdown.
“Now, I fully support—let’s have a conversation to extending those tax credits,” Fetterman said. “I think a lot of Republicans might even agree with that, too. … That’s a priority for us, and they might agree. But, you know, let’s have our government open and have that conversation so people can get paid.”
This is not the first government shutdown tied to health care policy.
When Republicans tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2013, it resulted in a 16-day government shutdown.
However, the longest shutdown in U.S. history ended in 2019 after 35 days, when Republicans were requesting funds from Congress to build a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border during Trump’s first term. The president eventually backed off amid mounting pressure from delays at the nation’s airports and missed paydays for federal workers.
end
USA/AUTOS/ALUMINIUM SHORTAGE
Ford Cuts Production Of Even More Vehicles After Aluminum Supply Shortage
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 09:25 AM
The fallout from the Novelis aluminum mill fire in Oswego, New York, which shut the plant down until early next year, continues to worsen for Ford Motor. The automaker is now preparing to scale back production of at least five models amid a tightening aluminum supply crunch.
The Wall Street Journal reports that production of its three-row SUVs, the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, at the Kentucky Truck Plant has been reduced due to “difficulties with aluminum supply.”
Here’s more from WSJ:
To preserve aluminum supply, Ford also stopped work at its other assembly plant in Louisville, Ky., last week, according to a UAW official, resuming this week with only one of two shifts operating. That plant is in the final months of producing the Escape SUV and its luxury cousin, the Lincoln Corsair. The Escape will end production in December, the official said, as Ford prepares to build a new electric pickup at the Louisville plant. Ford this week is also idling its Dearborn, Mich., plant that produces its current electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, because of the aluminum issue, Reuters reported last week.
AutoForecast Solutions analyst pointed out, “They’re focusing all their energy on making sure all their F-150s get built.”
However, a United Auto Workers member at the Kentucky plant wrote in a Facebook post that producing the Super Duty pickups “may run short today, tonight, and possibly over the next few shifts.”
Some context about the Novelis fire at its Oswego plant: A Sept. 16 fire destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. It supplies 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer.
Last week, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, “We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Ford’s EBIT.
Ford shares have dropped about 10% on the Oswego fire and the resulting production cuts or halts of five vehicle lines. Year-to-date, shares are up 16.5%.
While entirely unrelated, it’s worth noting that Ford’s production woes come at a time when cracks have begun to appear in the subprime auto credit markets.
END
GM EV MARKET
seems only Musk can make money on EV
GM Takes $1.6 Billion Hit As It Scales Back EV Operations
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 02:00 PM
General Motors said on Oct. 14 that it will bear a $1.6 billion loss to scale back its electric vehicle (EV) operations, citing weaker expected demand following recent U.S. policy changes that ended federal EV tax credits and loosened emissions rules.
The Detroit-based automaker said its Audit Committee approved the loss on Oct. 7, covering the three months ended Sept. 30.
The company noted that the loss is part of its plan to realign EV production and factory operations to better match customer demand.
The decision was made after the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30, part of a broader policy rollback under President Trump.
The credit, officially started under the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, revised under The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and expanded under former President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, had been a key driver of EV sales in the United States. Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, which set Sept. 30 as the final date for receiving EV purchase credits, effectively terminating the benefit.
“Following recent U.S. government policy changes, including the termination of certain consumer tax incentives for EV purchases and the reduction in the stringency of emissions regulations, we expect the adoption rate of EVs to slow,” GM said in a filing.
GM shares fell 2.5% in premarket trading, but have rebounded since as the broad market recovered…
As Evgenia Filimianova details below for The Epoch Times, according to the filing, $1.2 billion of the loss is related to non-cash impairments, mostly write-downs of EV assets.
The remaining $400 million will be paid in cash for contract cancellations and commercial settlements tied to EV investments.
The company said its review of EV manufacturing and battery component investments is ongoing.
“It is reasonably possible that we will recognize additional future material cash and non-cash charges that may adversely affect our results of operations and cash flows in the period in which they are recognized,” GM added.
GM noted that the costs, along with several smaller ones this quarter, will be recorded as adjustments in its non-GAAP results, which exclude one-time items from the company’s official earnings reported under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
The automaker also said its EV realignment will not affect current Chevrolet, GMC, and Cadillac electric models, which “remain available to consumers.”
The all-electric F-150 Lightning from Ford is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles on November 18, 2021. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images
Industry Changes
GM had previously pledged to invest up to $35 billion in electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025, aiming to transition most of its portfolio to zero-emission models later in the decade.
However, slower-than-expected consumer adoption, high production costs, and uncertain government policy have made that goal more difficult to achieve.
GM joins other automakers reassessing the EV market, including rival Ford Motor Co. Last year, Ford said it would take a $1.9 billion hit from plans that included canceling an all-electric SUV and delaying an electric pickup truck.
Despite the planned cutbacks, GM said this month that its overall sales remain strong. The automaker reported total U.S. vehicle sales of 2.2 million through the first three quarters of 2025, its fastest pace in a decade.
GM said the Chevrolet Equinox EV was the best-selling electric model outside Tesla, while its Cadillac Lyriq, Optiq, and Vistiq models all ranked among the top 10 in U.S. EV sales.
Analysts have said that the end of the federal EV tax credit “will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”
In a Sept. 2 report, Duncan Aldred, GM’s North America president, said the company expects lower EV sales next quarter after the tax credits end on Sept. 30. He added that it may take a few months for the market to steady.
“Still, we believe GM can continue to grow EV market share,” he wrote. “We are seeing marginal competitors dramatically scale back their products and plans, which should end much of the overproduction and irrational discounts we’ve seen in the marketplace.”
RAY DALIO…
“We’re In Wars”: Ray Dalio Warns Of ‘Civil War’ & Soaring Debt
Monday, Oct 13, 2025 – 06:00 PM
One thing is for sure about billionaire Ray Dalio; something bad is coming, at some point – because there’s just too much bad shit happening to reconcile. The Bridgewater founder has warned about a brutal AI war between the US and China (which Eric Schmidt recently echoed) and that the UK is in a ‘debt death-spiral’ (to moderate pushback), among other things.
Now, Dalio is warning that the U.S. may be entering a new kind of “civil war” amid rising inequality and debt, as well as a breakdown in the global geopolitical order. In an interview with Bloomberg TV which aired this week, Dalio said that the forces which “shape the world” were all now being disrupted, and that America served as a prime example of this.
“We’re in wars. There is a financial, money war. There’s a technology war, there’s geopolitical wars, and there are more military wars,” Dalio explained. “And so we have a civil war of some sort which is developing in the U.S. and elsewhere, where there are irreconcilable differences.”
Dalio has this year issued several warnings about the risks posed by America’s rising national debt, which currently stands at a staggering near $38 trillion. Additionally, the billionaire also highlighted the country’s debt-to-income ratio of roughly 120 percent as potentially leading to a situation in which repayments sap government finances and trigger a “death spiral” for the economy.
Dalio reiterated warnings that US government debt is rising too quickly, fueling a climate “that’s very much analogous” to the years before World War II.
When debt rises relative to income, “it’s like plaque in the arteries that then begins to squeeze out the spending,” Dalio, 76, said in an interview with Leaders with Francine Lacqua that aired Friday.
The billionaire investor has long cautioned of the risks of spiraling US debt, contending last month that it’s posing a “threat to the monetary order.” He blamed politicians on both sides of the aisle and has called for a mix of tax-revenue increases and spending cuts to tackle what he calls the “deficit/debt bomb.”
…
Debt held by the public amounted to 99% of US gross domestic product last year, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. That number is projected to reach 116% of GDP in 2034, higher than any point in US history.
Surging debt is just part of the problem, according to Dalio. Festering global conflicts and wealth inequality are also creating an environment with “plenty to worry about,” he said. –Bloomberg
On top of the debt, Dalio has sounded the alarm over Trump’s tariffs, warning in April that the president’s shifting policy is part of a broader set of economic and geopolitical pressures that could trigger a crisis “worse than a recession.”
“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
“We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem….We are having profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is existing. And we’re having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s.”
“I’ve studied history,” Dalio added, noting that “this repeats over and over again.”
Asked about the worst-case scenario, Dalio pointed to a potential breakdown of the dollar’s role as a store of wealth, combined with internal conflict beyond the norms of democratic politics and escalating international tensions – potentially even military conflict.
“These breakdowns have occurred before,” he said. “The existing monetary and geopolitical order began in 1945. These systems go in cycles, and I worry about the breakdown—particularly because it doesn’t have to happen.”
“That could be like the breakdown of the monetary system in ’71. It could be like 2008. It’s going to be very severe,” Dalio said. “I think it could be more severe than those if these other matters simultaneously occur.”
Dalio said history is shaped by five major forces: monetary cycles like credit and debt; internal political conflict; shifting global power dynamics; technological change; and natural disasters such as pandemics. In his view, all five are currently in play.
END
ROBERT H
This may change many things
omething very interesting is afoot.
Trump’s second term begins now, with the power he was denied in 2016. The presidency is no longer a cage. It is a command post. He can purge the administrative state, rebuild federal institutions that answer to the people, and restore a government that serves its citizens instead of its masters.
Speaking of shadowy clowns pulling strings from the shadows, it appears that US Presidents haven’t actually held the executive power in the USA since 1935. It all sounds a bit hopiumatic, to be sure, but the more squealing that comes out of Washington as the various agencies are shut down and their bureaucrats are disemployed, the more optimistic we should be.
The Great Reclamation has begun. The Supreme Court just restored Trump’s constitutional power to remove rogue commissioners from federal agencies. For the first time in ninety years, the President can clean house. The walls of bureaucratic tyranny are cracking.
Since 1935, the presidency has been a hostage. A hidden ruling called Humphrey’s Executor v. United States created a shield around unelected bureaucrats buried inside so-called independent agencies. They could not be fired. Not by Congress. Not by the people. Not even by the Commander in Chief. These were the Deep State’s castles inside the government. Protected. Untouchable. Writing rules with the power of law while answering to no one. For decades, they dictated policy, destroyed accountability, and made every president a figurehead in his own house.
That ended this week.
In a ruling few expected but history will never forget, the Supreme Court confirmed that President Trump has full constitutional authority to remove Democratic commissioners Mary Boyle, Richard Trumka Jr, and Alexander Hoehn-Saric from the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The Court reminded the nation that executive power belongs to the President alone. Not to agencies. Not to boards. Not to faceless lawyers.
The 6-3 decision has detonated the foundation of bureaucratic immunity. Trump can now terminate any commissioner who obstructs reform, dismantle ideological mandates, and reclaim executive control over agencies that have operated like private empires. The ruling sets a precedent that can sweep through every corner of the federal maze — FTC, SEC, NLRB, CDC, FDA, DOE. Hundreds of unelected operators who hid behind the term “independent” are now exposed.
The Consumer Product Safety Commission is only the beginning. Nearly 700 positions across Washington fall under the same model. With this judgment, Trump holds the legal weapon he was denied in his first term. The sword is back in his hands.
Inside the Deep State, panic has already begun. For decades, they didn’t need to win elections. They only needed to control who stayed behind. By embedding loyal operatives inside untouchable posts, they guaranteed their agenda survived every presidency. They wrote laws under the cover of regulation. They censored industries through “safety standards.” They shifted policy without ever standing for a vote. That structure is now collapsing.
This decision is not about staffing. It’s about sovereignty. The hidden coup that began ninety years ago has been reversed. The unelected state no longer outranks the elected one. The legal scaffolding that protected the regime is being dismantled piece by piece.
That is why the media is silent. They understand what this means. If Trump uses this authority — and he will — the entire architecture of shadow governance will fall. Agencies that weaponized policy for ideology will be stripped of power. Mandates will be rescinded. Political infiltrators will be removed. The Deep State’s invisible army is finally within reach.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 14, 2025 Issue 7597 | Independent View of the News |
| Stocks rebounded sharply on Trump’s latest TACO. Precious metals stocks soared like there’s something wicked this way comes. Bonds declined moderately kin early trading. Gold rallied as much as $99.35, +2.47%. Dec Gold soared as much as 136.80, +3.4%. Silver hit a new high of 52.2260, +4.12%. Dec silver soared 7.13%! Physical silver is at a premium to Dec silver due to shortages of bars and ingots. What big traders are in serious trouble on their gold & silver shorts! Gold peaked near 12:13 ET: silver hit its daily high near 15:17 ET. @NorthmanTrader: Gold now matching the record monthly RSI from December 1979: 90.5 https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1977772969892909429 ESZs opened sharply higher on Sunday night due to Trump’s latest TACO and did an irregular 5-wave rally to a daily high of 6706.25 at 3:29 ET. After a sharp decline to 6653.25 at 7:09 ET, ESZ rallied to 6695.20 at 10:02 ET. A professional dump pushed ESZs down to 6661.75 at 11:04 ET. ESZs then jumped to 6711.50 at 13:01 ET. The impetus for the Noon Balloon: China to Adjust Special Port Fees on US Ships as Needed – BBG China Exempts China-Made Ships Owned by US Cos. From Port Fees – BBG 12:33 ET In the early afternoon, ESZs did an A-B-C decline to 6681.50 at 15:00 ET. The last-hour rally lifted ESZs to 6700.75 at 14:54 ET. ESZs eased down to 6695.75 at the NYSE close. Hypersonic-Armed Destroyers and Submarines are Relocating to Hawaii – Naval News A series of upgrades and modernizations at Pearl Harbor are preparing the Honolulu Naval Base for all three hypersonic-armed Zumwalt-class destroyers and up to three hypersonic-armed Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines. The move is a significant relocation of the U.S. Navy’s hypersonic equipped combatant force for a potential war with China… https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/10/hypersonic-armed-destroyers-and-submarines-are-relocating-to-hawaii/ Positive aspects of previous session US stocks rebounded sharply on another Trump TACO. Fangs, of course, led the rally and the manic short covering. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals bubbled up even higher! USZs declined as much as 23/32 (10:37 ET) but were -2/32 at the NYSE close. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who is in big-time trouble due to precious metal shorts? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6648.04 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6668.68; 6620.71 WSJ: Trump Allies Sold Sponsorships to What Appeared to Be a Treasury Event. It Wasn’t. Treasury says it didn’t approve marketing pitch for private Oct. 21 event about AI that is to be headlined by Scott Bessent… (Pay wall) The fund, called 1789 Capital, circulated the pitch to technology companies in recent weeks, calling the Oct. 21 event “historic,” according to an email to potential donors and the pitch itself, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. It offered an array of perks, including a VIP cocktail party and dinner, to those who paid… (“There’s a sucker born every minute!”) https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-allies-sold-sponsorships-to-what-appeared-to-be-a-treasury-event-it-wasnt-cb8445e0 Today – US stocks were in perilous technical and fundamental conditions before Trump’s latest China tariff tirade and the ensuing TACO. After Monday’s panic buying and short covering, stocks are ripe for a Turnaround Tuesday to the downside. An early equity surge on NO new developments increases the odds for a spirited retreat later. The 1-st Hour Indicator could be very useful today, especially for the downside. If major indices violate their 1st-hour lows, stocks could be in for tough sledding for the remainder of the session. ESZs are +1.75; NQZs are +10.50; Dec AU is +4.90; and USZs are -2/32 at 20:07 ET. Fed Speakers: Gov Bowman 8:45 ET, Chair Powell 12:20 on Economy & Monetary Policy at NABE Annual Meeting; Gov Waller 15:25 Et, Boston Pres Collins 15:30 ET Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.6 S&P Index 50-day MA: 6538; 100-day MA: 6334; 150-day MA: 6079; 200-day MA: 6053 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,561; 100-day MA: 44,500; 150-day MA: 43,35; 200-day MA: 43,407 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6654.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6445.33 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6848.38 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 6695.52 triggers a buy signal @SchmittNYC: So, they claim the Nobel Peace Prize decision is made in January? That means they chose Obama 10 days into his first term. There’s no way for @NobelPrize to escape this with its credibility intact. @WallStreetMav: Obamacare (ACA) explained … Democrats passed Obamacare which made deductibles so high that you rarely ever reach them, so you pay for insurance plus out of pocket for insurance you rarely use. Designed… to fund healthcare for deadbeats and illegal aliens. From 2014 to 2021 it was getting worse. Then Biden and the Democrats passed temporary subsidies to hide how crazy expensive ACA insurance had become. Those subsidies expire Dec 31, 2025. Now Democrats want to extend those subsidies. If they could, they would even expand the subsidies more to further hide the disaster of Obamacare. Before Obamacare health insurance companies could offer cheaper plans with certain things excluded. But Obamacare banned those cheaper plans. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Letitia James’ Fugitive Niece Has Been Ducking Justice In Disputed ‘Primary Residence’
Monday, Oct 13, 2025 – 09:20 PM
Wow, things just keep getting worse for New York Attorney General Letitia James.
On Monday the Daily Mail revealed that James’ has been letting her grandniece Nakia Thompson – along with Thompson’s three children – live in the Norfolk, Virginia house at the center of James’ federal indictment.
Thompson has been living at the property since 2020, after ducking authorities in North Carolina for failing to finish her probation. She is considered a fugitive and has an active warrant for her arrest if she’s located in North Carolina.
“Ms Thompson was sentenced to probation for misdemeanor convictions for assault and battery and trespassing, and has willfully avoided probation supervision,” Keith Acree, communications director for the North Carolina Department of Corrections told the Mail, adding “An absconder is considered a fugitive.“
“Thompson faces arrest if she is located in North Carolina,” but said that she’s unlikely to be extradited due to the nature of her alleged crimes (trespass and assault).
And according to the NY Times, Thompson, 36, told a grand jury in June that she has been living rent-free at James’ home – claiming that the NY AG even pays for basic upkeep.
Meanwhile, Thompson was reportedly arrested for an altercation the day James’ indictment was announced.
James was indicted by a federal jury in Virginia on charges of bank fraud and lying to a financial institution when she applied for a mortgage on the home.
END
INSANITY
Chuck Schumer Calls For “Forceful” Uprising Against Trump Administration
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 10:05 AM
The political left believes that enforcing basic laws is an act of “tyranny” as long as those laws are inconvenient to their agenda. And hypocritically, when they are in government power any notion of civil liberty goes out the window, as we witnessed during the Biden Administration’s widespread censorship of social media and Democrat efforts to prosecute their opponents for fabricated crimes.
Anyone with a sense of memory will find it difficult to muster an ounce of sympathy for the Dems after years of leftist oppression. Cancel culture was created by the progressives as a nuclear option against their political opponents. They used it without hesitation, and payback is a bitch.
To the credit of conservatives and moderates, efforts to exact “revenge” have been limited despite the endless list of trespasses by Democrats, not to mention the riots, mob intimidation and politically motivated murders committed by woke activists. There has been no mass vigilantism to punish them, at least not yet.
If Democrats were smart they would count themselves lucky, keep their heads down and stay out of the way as the Trump White House works to repair the damage done by Joe Biden and his handlers. Trump’s election victory with a stunning lead in the Electoral College and a clear popular majority was a message to Dems that their policies and ideals are not wanted by the public.
Alas, acceptance and peace is not the way of the political left. They claim to love “democracy”, but only if it works in their favor. They must double down and cause more problems; it’s all they know.
Case in point: Senator Chuck Schumer still can’t keep his big mouth shut when it comes to his repeated calls for activists to “rise up” and disrupt lawful White House policies. On MSNBC this week, Schumer discussed the government shutdown, as well as the indictments of Letitia James and John Bolton. Schumer once again called for a public uprising to stop Trump, which is likely in preparation for the “No Kings” protests scheduled for October 18th.
The New York Senator plays the usual rhetorical games of old politics, attempting to place the blame on Republicans for the shutdown even though Republicans have voted in favor of funding measures (ending the shutdown) seven times while Democrats have voted against funding seven times. Democrats specifically want ACA health benefits to extend to “documented migrants”, which includes millions of migrants who entered the US illegally during Biden’s term and claimed asylum.
The standoff over the shutdown hinges primarily on Dems refusing to accept any cuts to government subsidized healthcare, which has been an abject failure ever since Obamacare provisions were passed in 2010.
But the budget conflict is largely overshadowed by the ongoing battle over mass deportations of illegal migrants and the investigations into Democrat corruption. Schumer has consistently compared Trump’s deportation policies to “fascism”, even though most countries in the world enforce deportations of illegal migrants.
The deployment of National Guard troops has been mostly relegated to protecting ICE agents from Antifa violence. Activist groups funded by subversive leftist NGOs operate like an army of saboteurs without uniforms or rules of engagement, and Democrat leaders in blue cities protect them. It makes perfect sense for Trump to ensure the safety of the people trying to enforce lawful immigration rules. It should also be noted that the majority of Americans continue to support deportations.
Despite this fact, Democrats are hellbent on using their influence (and NGO cash) to rally activists in blue cities and disrupt immigration officials. Remember when leftists insisted that conservatives were “insurrectionists” over a single protest in Washington DC? The upcoming “No Kings” protests (which largely flopped the last time they were held) are meant to create an image of false consensus against deportations, but they are also meant to inspire further mob interference.
The incessant lies about “tyranny” and “fascism” have directly inspired numerous acts of leftist violence.
Oddly, it’s the investigations into establishment operatives like New York Attorney General Letitia James, former FBI Director James Comey and former National Security Advisor John Bolton that terrify Schumer the most.
Corruption among Democrats has been cancerous, but few if any politicians or middlemen ever seem to face consequences. For decades there has been an unspoken rule among both major parties that the legal system would be rarely if ever used against the opposing side. This all changed when Democrats tried to bury Trump with false charges and undermine the will of the voting public.
It would seem that Democrats are most fearful of being held personally accountable. Their calls for “No Kings” may simply be a strategy to distract from the exposure they face as their actions over the years are more closely scrutinized.
end
‘Goodbye’: Hegseth Shows Legacy Media Outlets The Door Amid Revolt Against New Pentagon Press Policy
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Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 10:45 AM
A growing list of news organizations with access to Pentagon briefings have formally rejected a new Defense Department (or Dept of War) policy that would require journalists to sign a pledge promising not to seek unauthorized materials and limiting their access to certain areas unless accompanied by an official. In essence it’s part of the continuing crackdown on leaks.
But now there’s a full-on, very public revolt against the policy introduced last month by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has himself been thrust into the center of controversy since being named Pentagon chief due to the embarrassing Yemen group chat Signal episode earlier in the Trump administration.
Outlets have been told to sign the pledge by Tuesday at 5 pm or surrender their press credentials within 24 hours, after weeks ago the new policy was introduced.
Establishment media outlets have also been frustrated after long-accredited media outlets were forced to vacate their assigned Pentagon workspaces under what officials described as an “annual media rotation program” – which happened similarly at the White House where independent media, podcasters, and nontraditional media figures have been given access and sometimes even priority.
Among those which have made clear they are not signing the policy are The Washington Post, The New York Times, CNN, The Atlantic, Politico, The Hill, The Guardian, Reuters, the Associated Press, NPR, HuffPost, Breaking Defense, and others.
Conservative outlet Newsmax has also made clear it is not signing. “We believe the requirements are unnecessary and onerous and hope that the Pentagon with review the matter further,” Newsmax said in a statement. Notably, Fox News hasn’t revealed its stance.
Executive editor of The Washington Post, Matt Murray, wrote a scathing critique of the policy as a violation of freedoms guaranteed to the press as spelled out in the Constitution.
“The proposed restrictions undercut First Amendment protections by placing unnecessary constraints on gathering and publishing information,” Murray stated on X. “We will continue to report vigorously and fairly on Pentagon and government activities.”
And The New York Times has said that the new Hegseth policy severely limits journalists’ ability to cover the US military, which “is funded by nearly $1 trillion in taxpayer dollars annually.” The outlet said that “the public has a right to know how the government and military are operating.”
This is all well and true, and yet these MSM gatekeepers would have more of a leg to stand on if they hadn’t already long proven themselves by and large mere pro-war stenographers of official government narratives time and again. This was especially bad in the wars of the GWOT era, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya to Obama’s massively expensive covert war in Syria.
The media loves to fawn over military commanders and ‘anon sources’ which they already agree with, from hawkish pro-Israel, pro-Ukraine stances, to regime change operations abroad in places like Syria or Libya. That’s when criticism from the press goes out the window.
Hegseth responded on social media to this MSM media exit with a dismissive wave emoji directed at the outlets’ statements. He subsequently posted a list titled “Press Credentialing FOR DUMMIES,” outlining new restrictions such as visible badge requirements and a prohibition on “soliciting criminal acts.”
Adding insult to injury, he also reshared a cartoon mocking The Atlantic as a crying baby. Now that it has an ‘adversary’ heading up the Pentagon, perhaps the press will finally grow more critical of whatever ‘anonymous military and/or intelligence officials’ tell them?
GREG HUNTER…
SEE YOU TOMORROW
H
harveyorganblog.com 
