access market
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,138.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/14/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/16/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 359
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 299
323 C HSBC 286
323 H HSBC 528
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 142
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 164
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 413
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 21 1659
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 27
709 C BARCLAYS 282
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 20 19
905 C ADM 14
TOTAL: 2,120 2,120
MONTH TO DATE: 44,158
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 2120 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 212,000 OZ or 6.5940 TONNES
total notices so far: 44,158 contracts for 4,415,800 OR 137.350 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 162 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.810 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5770 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.850 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 29.070 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
31.180 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 58.780 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 29.070 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 31.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH A RECORD SETTING MONSTER 9.564 TONNES QUEUE JUMP YESTERDAY AND THEN TODAY’S HUGE 6.469 TONNES WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY 33.009 TONNES QUEUE JUMPING FOR OCT. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 124.339 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 916 CONTRACTS OI TO 172,201 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A MONSTER 1105 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1105 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1105 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1009 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE MONSTER 1105 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2024 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.07 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.12 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.07 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.98 POINTS OR 1.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 469.25 PTS OR 1.84%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1214.48 PTS OR 2.58% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.98%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1264// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1297/ Oil DOWN TO 58.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1264 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2363 CONTRACTS TO 482,949 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $33.90 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4004). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1641 CONTRACTS (OR 5.104 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 11.353 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 5 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 5 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 5 OCCASIONS FOR 3650 CONTRACTS OR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN FINALLY OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 126.5 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1641 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2081 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN YESTERDAY DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD. WITH MUCH FAILURES. THIS BRINGS US TO YESTERDAY’S MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS. ONE SHOULD EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO OUR LONGS. SHOCKINGLY AS YOU WILL SEE, ON A NET BASIS NOBODY LEFT EITHER ARENA, GOLD AND SILVER.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCT 1 AND OCT 2 AND NOW OCT 9 THROUGH 10TH AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN OCTOBER AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES, THEN OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP, OCT 9 HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP, OCT 10 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 7.504 CONTRACTS(250,900 OZ//7.504 TONNES) AND THEN OCT 13: 4.3919 TONNES// AND THEN OCT 14 WITH A RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES AND THEN FINALLY TODAY’S MASSIVE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 5 ISSUANCES IS 3650 CONTRACTS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 243 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 15 QUEUE JUMP OF 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 3,650 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 5 OCCASIONS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMPING;
E) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
F) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
G) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
J) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
K) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
151.387 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 5106 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2160 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2160 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2160 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCTO 10 AND THAT FAILED AND FROM THAT POINT GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 2081 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 5 ISSUANCES FOR 11.383 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE THE GREEN LIGHT ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY YESTERDAY;S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP AND THEN TODAY’S MASSIVE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS IN OCT OF 33.009 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $33.90./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 6164 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY OCT 7, WE WITNESSED FOR NO REASON A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION IN PRICE OF OUR GOLD EQUITY SHARES LIKE AGNICO EAGLE AND BARRICK GOLD /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLYTHURSDAY OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER.
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 5.104 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 6.464 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 151.387 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $33.90
WE HAD A HUGE 4563 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1641 CONTRACTS OR 164100 0Z (5.104 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 15
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) Out of Asahi 242,166.401 oz ii) Out of Brinks 86,132.529 oz (2529 kilobars) iii) Out of JPMorgan enhanced out of London: 99,182.475 oz (248 London good delivery bars debited to jpm london.) total withdrawal 427,545.707 oz or 13.298 tonnes of gold//huge . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRIES i) Into Manfra: 52,084.620 oz (1620 kilobars) in weight: 1.620 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2120 notice(s) 212000 OZ 6.5940 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 863 contracts 86,300 OZ 2.684 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 44,158 notices 4,415,800 oz 137.349 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entry
i) Into Manfra: 52,084.620 oz
(1620 kilobars)
in weight: 1.620 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
3 entries
i) Out of Asahi 242,166.401 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 86,132.529 oz (2529 kilobars)
iii) Out of JPMorgan enhanced out of London: 99,182.475 oz
248 London good delivery bars debited to jpm london.
total withdrawal 427,545.707 oz or 13.298 tonnes of gold//huge
ADJUSTMENTs 4
dealer to customer
i)Asahi 18,711.025 oz
ii) Brinks: 52,952.687 oz
iii) JPMorgan 8033.165 oz
iv) Malca: 36,266.328 oz
volume at the comex: TUESDAY: 429,365 oz (HUGE)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 2983 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 709 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2789 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 2080 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 208,000 OZ OR 6.469 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH FOLLOWED YESTERDAY’S HUGE 9.564 TONNES//QUEUE JUMP// YESTERDAY’S QUEUE JUMP BECAME THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY BARELY EDGING OUT LAST YEAR’S 9.4 TONNE RECORD. THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 140,034 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 151.397 TONNES
NOVEMBER GAINED 365 CONTRACTS UP TO 4075 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 3644 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 370,287 CONTRACTS.
We had 2120 contracts filed for today representing 212000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 21 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2120 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 1659 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (44,158 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 2983 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2120 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,502,100 OZ OR 140.034 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (44,158 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (2983 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2120 x 100 oz) which equals 4,502,100 OZ OR 133.606 TONNES + 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 151.387 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 151.387 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,934,347.115 oz 60.166 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,285,218.717 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,258,329.041 or 661.223 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,026,889.026OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,932,398. oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 601.056 tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 13 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) Out of Asahi 3,113,408.610 oz ii) Out of Brinks: 600,876.730 oz iii) Out of CNT: 251,264.526 oz iv) Out of Delaware 10,897.716 oz v) Out of Malca 583,346.400 oz total withdrawal 4,559,793.482 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Loomis: 598,755.110 oz total deposit 598,755.110 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 162 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.810 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 44 contracts (0.220 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5770 Contracts (28.850 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
i) Into Loomis: 598,755.110 oz
total deposit 598,755.110 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
6 entries
i) Out of Asahi 907,158.450 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 716,816.900 oz
iii) Out of CNT: 389,614.302
oz
iv) Out of Delaware 4986.600 oz
v) Out of HSBC 600,1416.500 oz
vi) Out of Loomis; 901,053.340 oz
total withdrawal 3,519,781.092 oz
adjustments: 4
3 dealer to customer
a) Asahi 331m650.300 oz
b) Brinks: 184,587.216 oz
c)JPMorgan 59,719.480
Customer acct to dealer CNT
d) CNT: 130,912.590 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 173.473 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 512.711 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 206 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 256 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 367 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 111 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.555 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 29.079 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG 0.555 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 31.180 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER GAINED 22 CONTRACTS UP TO 2449
DECEMBER GAINED 119 CONTRACTS UP TO 126,690
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 162 or 0.810 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 196,088 immense++++//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5770 X5,000 oz = 28.850 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (206) AND the number of notices served upon today (162 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (5770) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(206) minus number of notices served upon today (162)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 29.070 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 31.180 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 31.180 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 173.473 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 208,435/512.711million. 40.62%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1021.45 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 505.830 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
AMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS DAILY DISPATCHES:
Jesse Colombo: Bullion banks dump 20,000 futures but can’t stop silver at $50
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-10-14 21:01 Section: Daily Dispatches
Silver Maintains Breakout Despite Turbulence
By Jesse Colombo
The Bubble Bubble Report
Thebubblebubble.substack.com
Tuesday, October 14, 2025
I just wanted to give a quick update on where silver stands after some turbulence in the wee hours of the morning, from the perspective of New York time.
As I showed yesterday evening, silver finally closed above the critical $50 resistance level that stopped the 1980 and 2011 bull markets dead in their tracks. In doing so, it broke to an all-time high, which I said was a signal that the bull market is about to enter a new stage and heat up even further.
In reality, however, nothing is ever that simple.
Frustratingly, there was an intentional slam of silver by the bullion banks below that $50 level in an attempt to thwart its breakout. Thankfully, silver managed to still remain above the critical $50 level.
There is a fierce battle taking place at that level, so I want to show you that and go into more detail about it in this update. …
Silver ended Monday on a strong note, with Comex silver futures finally breaking above the critical $50 level and reaching as high as approximately $52.50. But then a sudden and aggressive price slam occurred starting at roughly 1:20 a.m. New York time. This occurred well outside of regular trading hours, when most traders were asleep and liquidity was very thin.
At that moment at least 20,000 silver futures contracts (aka “paper silver”) were dumped onto the market. This triggered a sharp selloff that drove the price below the key $50 level, with silver sinking as low as $48.75 within just one hour. That volume of contracts represents 100 million troy ounces of silver, or nearly 12% of global annual production.
In my view this was a deliberate price suppression effort orchestrated by major bullion banks such as JP Morgan and UBS. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The battle for $50 silver
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-10-14 18:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Monday, October 13, 2025
With the U.S. banks closed on Monday, and with the Canadian markets also closed for Thanksgiving, the Comex futures price for silver reached over $50 for the first time in history.
So what’s next? A surge of 100% over the next 18 months, like gold has just accomplished, or will this be another failure before a sharp pullback and years-long decline? …
What’s driving this current surge in price?
Massive stress in the fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme that held for more than 50 years. The pricing scheme relies upon leverage, rehypothecation, and unallocated accounts — and it has held for decades as physical demand has been suppressed.
However, nearly 1 billion ounces of mine supply deficit over the past five years, combined with increasing industrial and investment demand, has created a drain of physical metal from the London warehouses, placing the entire pricing scheme at risk of failure. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Mike Maharrey: Much stress on silver market comes from Indian demand
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-10-14 10:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, October 14, 2025
Could India be the straw that broke the silver camel’s back?
Most people associate India with gold, but the country also ranks as the world’s top silver consumer.
As we reported yesterday, one of the reasons for silver’s surge to record levels in recent days is a shortage of available silver in London. This is being partly driven by voracious demand in India.
India’s silver market reveals deep structural problems indicative of the broader global market.
Simply put, there isn’t enough silver. And risks of a major blowup are mounting. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Great silver squeeze poses meltdown risk for India’s futures market
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-10-13 10:02 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Palak Shah
Business World, New Delhi
Sunday, October 12, 2025
As global silver prices rocket to record highs, India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) finds itself trapped in a dangerous divergence — where the spot market screams scarcity but futures prices refuse to listen. Beneath this gap may lie the seeds of India’s next commodities crisis.
Silver — the humble cousin of gold — has become the year’s wildest asset. In 2025 alone global prices have surged more than 50%, racing past $48 an ounce and outpacing every major metal. In India 999-purity silver now commands an unprecedented R1.62 lakh per kilogram, per Indian Bullion and Jewelers Association data — the highest in history.
Bullion traders in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, and Hyderabad say demand is frenetic. “We’re quoting at R1.70 lakh and still can’t deliver,” says one south-based dealer. Shelves are empty; mints are running overtime. Yet in a bizarre twist MCX futures continue to languish, trading nearly ₹15,000–₹20,000 per kg below the street price.
This isn’t a small kink. It’s a gaping hole in India’s precious metals market — and it’s getting wider.
The futures market, meant to mirror spot prices, is supposed to converge as expiry nears. But in recent weeks MCX December silver futures (R1.46–R1.47 lakh/kg) have stubbornly lagged behind spot rates hovering at R1.61–R1.71 lakh/kg. That 8–15% discount is the kind of distortion that keeps risk desks awake at night.
“This is not normal backwardation. This is market stress,” says a commodities strategist at a foreign brokerage, requesting anonymity. “It’s a signal that someone, somewhere, can’t deliver metal.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Silver roars higher as short squeeze rocks the London market
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-10-13 08:54 Section: Daily Dispatches
Sybilla Gross and Mark Burton
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Monday, October 13, 2025
Silver hit the highest in decades as a historic short squeeze in London intensified, with a fresh surge in prices adding urgency to a worldwide hunt for bullion that could alleviate the mismatch between demand and supply.
Spot silver climbed as much as 3.1% to near $52 an ounce, exceeding last week’s peak, while gold surpassed $4,070 an ounce, building on a record-breaking run of eight weekly gains. Platinum and palladium also surged, amid signs that market stresses caused by surging investor demand are starting to spread to other precious metals.
Concerns about a lack of liquidity in London drove silver closer to a $52.50-an-ounce record from 1980 — set on a now-defunct contract on the Chicago Board of Trade exchange. Benchmark prices in London have soared to near-unprecedented levels over New York, prompting some traders to book cargo slots on transatlantic flights for silver bars — an expensive mode of transport typically reserved for gold — to profit off the massive premiums in London.
Silver lease rates — which represent the annualized cost of borrowing metal in the London market — surged to more than 30% on a one-month basis on Friday, creating eye-watering costs for those looking to roll over short positions. Lease rates for gold and palladium also tightened, signaling a broadening pull on London’s bullion reserves, following a rush to ship metal to New York earlier this year. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Iran rial is now 1.1 million rials to the dollar: the idiots are restricting gold imports to protect the worthless rial
Press TV Iran
Iran restricts gold imports to control dubious trade
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-10-12 17:26 Section: Daily Dispatches
From PressTV, Tehran
Sunday, October 12, 2025
Iran has imposed restrictions on imports of gold into the country amid reports pointing to the dubious trade of Iranian gold reserves to meet government requirements for the return of export proceeds.
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said in a Sunday report that the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) had decided to restrict gold imports “to manage the foreign currency market and control the smuggling of gold from the country.”
It cited a statement from head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, Mohammad Ali Dehghan, which showed that Iranian exporters could no longer be able to import gold to pay their hard-currency liabilities to the CBI.
Iran cut its tariffs on gold imports to zero in November 2022 to boost its gold reserves and to facilitate the return of funds held in other countries because of U.S. sanctions.
However, reports published in local media have suggested that some exporters have been transferring gold from Iran to other countries to re-import and sell it in the domestic market to benefit from the difference between official and free-market prices of foreign currency. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /244 AND 243
LAST WEEK:
END
I
Trump said, adding that he wants them all back.
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
Jamie Dimon Says Gold Can “Easily Go To $5,000 Or $10,000”
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Fresh from reporting a solid set of numbers for the third quarter, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he sees “some logic” in owning gold, while declining to say whether he thinks the precious metal is overvalued after its record run-up (perhaps smart, considering his catastrophic attempts to assign value to bitcoin over the past decade).
“I’m not a gold buyer — it costs 4% to own it,” Dimon said Tuesday at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington, referring to storage costs for billionaires who have to store several hundreds gold bars worth billions, and clearly not referring to 99% of actual gold buyers who own a little gold at home and which costs them 0% to own it.
That said, Dimon admitted that gold “could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.”
Gold, which traded below $2,000 just two years ago, has outpaced gains in equities so far this year, this decade, and this century, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns and geopolitical unrest, after ignoring precisely the same arguments presented by “tinfoil hat” conspiracy blows such as this one. It continued its torrid advance on Tuesday, climbing to a record $4,184 an ounce, extending its gain this year to almost 60%.
“Asset prices are kind of high,” Dimon said, and “in the back of my mind, that cuts across almost everything at this point.”
Last week, billionaire Citadel founder Ken Griffin said investors were starting to view gold as safer than the dollar, calling the development “really concerning.” Like Dimon, Griffin is also very late to a party we first pointed out about 2 years ago when we showed that after the Ukraine war and the Biden admin’s idiotic decision to weaponize gold against Russia and, in parts, China, the flood of central bank buying was the primary driver of the relentless meltup in gold, a meltup that shows no signs of slowing.
Amazingly, both Dimon and Griffin are very wrong in believing that capital is flowing from risk assets to gold. To get a sense of just how underowned gold is, read the latest BofA Fund Manager’s Survey to find that the allocation among Wall Street professionals to gold is a paltry 2.4%.
Which however is a huge amount considering the allocation to crypto is less than one-fifth that, or 0.4%.
Said otherwise, when the money really starts moving out of fiat and into gold and crypto, trust us: you will see a move in the price which makes the current spike looks like a quiet picnic.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.98 POINTS OR 1.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 469.25 PTS OR 1.84%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1214.48 PTS OR 2.58% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.98%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1264// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1297/ Oil DOWN TO 58.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1264 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1264
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1297
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 469.28 PTS OR 1.84%
2. Nikkei closed UP 825.35 PTS OR 1.76%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.57 EURO RISES TO 1.1638 UP 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.657//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.38…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.172 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5846// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.400 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.118
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.264
3j Gold at $4194.50 Silver at: 52.62 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 59 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.91
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.38/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.657% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.173 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7994 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9310 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.017 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.613 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.476 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.85 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5480 DOWN 5 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.3580 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.155 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.721 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise After Strong Earnings Ease Trade War Fears
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 08:51 AM
US equity futures are again higher due a combination of softening trade rhetoric, a dovish Powell who reassured markets that another rate cut was coming, and solid results from BofA and Morgan Stanley. While cooking oil has become the latest flashpoint between the US and China, there are enough positive themes to offset trade-war worries for now. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.8% higher with Nasdaq 100 contacts +1.0%. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and Semis are looking to rebound from yesterday’s losses where Equal-weighted indices outperformed Mkt-weighted indices by 90-100bp. Cyclicals are poised to see outperformance with Banks, Industrials (esp. AI plays), and Materials leading the factor higher. In Europe, ASML gave another boost to the AI story after orders for its chip-making machines beat expectations. Bond yields are lower and the USD is weaker. In commodities, crude is up but other Energy products are lower; precious metals are higher with gold rising to a new record high above $4200 while base are lower. Ags are lower ex-coffee. The data drought continues: today’s CPI report has been pushed to Oct 24, so we only get the Empire Manufacturing print at 8:30am. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are among companies due to report today; the BKX has fallen 7.5% over the last 3 weeks, albeit from ATHs, and now is ~4% below that level.
In premarket trarding, MAg 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +1.2%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple +0.5%).
- Bank of America (BAC) rises 4% after third-quarter earnings beat estimates as investment-banking activity increased amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A.
- Bunge Global SA (BG) rises 5% after recasting its outlook.
- Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) climbs 6% after the US discount retailer projected earnings per share to gain as much as 10% annually over the next three years.
- Grindr (GRND) gains 5% after the company said its largest shareholders are exploring an acquisition that would take the company private at no less than $15 a share, confirming an earlier media report.
- Papa John’s (PZZA) shares jump 12% as Reuters reports Apollo Global Management submitted a bid within the last week to take the pizza chain operator private at $64 per share.
- Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 26% after the Santa Barbara Superior Court issued a tentative ruling indicating that it will deny the firm’s claims against the Coastal Commission for issuing cease and desist orders during Sable’s repair program on the Las Flores pipeline.
In corporate news, Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam as part of a push into the smart home market and in an effort to lessen dependence on China. Data center developer Nscale agreed to build a site for Microsoft in Texas which will deploy around 104,000 of the latest Nvidia chips. Stellantis vowed to invest $13 billion in the US over the next four years as it seeks to reinvigorate its business in the critical market and mitigate tariff costs.
While the stocks meltup is back, there are mixed signals coming from the derivatives markets, with some pointing to a spike in near-term pricing as a signal froth had been blown out of the market. For others, the inverted VIX curve is a precursor of more pain for stock traders.
Citi’s chief global macro strategist says markets aren’t adequately pricing in risks of the latest round of trade tensions. Meanwhile, systematic investors have been maximum long, but with short-term trend dynamics being tested and volatility spiking, selling exposure is the clear next step. Goldman’s Cullen Morgan expects CTAs to be sellers under every scenario, potentially offloading as much as $232 billion across global stocks should a down market take hold over the next month.
On the monetary policy front, Powell, as well as Boston Fed’s Collins, suggested scope for further cuts this year in commentary on Tuesday. And Evercore founder Roger Altman said he doesn’t see inflation as a threatening factor amid solid economic growth.
Turning to earnings, while it’s still very early in the season, but of the 24 companies in the S&P that have reported so far, 71% have topped estimates. In Europe, ASML gave another boost to the AI story after orders for its chip-making machines beat expectations.
“We’re going into this earnings season with the view that it probably will validate that the corporate sector is still in relatively good shape,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann told Bloomberg TV. “There’s a lot of uncertainty on politics and geopolitics, as always, and you want to be careful about making too many shifts in your portfolio.”
Markets will hear from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, Jeff Schmid and Stephen Miran later today after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated concerns about labor-market weakness on Tuesday and signaled the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. Strategists warn that trade headlines will remain in focus as Washington and Beijing lay the groundwork for negotiations.
Meanwhile, trade tensions “continue to simmer in the background, of course,” said UniCredit equity strategist Christian Stocker. “But the news that we can now be certain, or almost certain, that the Fed will cut interest rates in October has already had a positive impact.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as investors welcomed better-than-expected earnings from LVMH and ASML as well as a reduction in French political uncertainty. Consumer products and media shares are leading gains, while healthcare and financial services shares are the biggest laggards. The CAC 40 outperforms its regional peers with a 2.7% gain. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- LVMH shares rise as much as 14%, the most since February 2009, after the luxury group reported an unexpected return to sales growth in the third quarter
- ASML shares rise as much as 3.8% after the chip equipment maker reported the highest bookings for its cutting-edge EUV tools since 4Q23, showing a boost from a rapid increase in AI investments
- TotalEnergies shares rise as much as 3.2%, the most since June, after the French energy company published a trading statement that showed improving refining margins
- Bouygues and Orange jump after the pair — along with Iliad — offered to buy SFR from billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice France in a €17 billion deal that would reduce the French telecom market to three operators from four
- Nibe gains as much as 4.8%, the most in two weeks, after Pareto Securities upgraded its view on the Swedish heat-pump company to buy from hold, noting heat pump sales are continuing to grow organically at 8% in 3Q thanks to a recovery in the Nordics and Europe
- Pets at Home shares climb as much as 4.9% while peer CVS Group soars as much as 18% after the UK Competition & Markets Authority outlined its plan to reform the veterinary services market
- Pagegroup shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since April, after the recruitment company posted a milder drop in gross profit in the third quarter compared to what was seen in the first half
- Aurubis shares slid as much as 7.8%, its biggest drop since April, to €106.70 after shareholder Salzgitter placed €500 million of bonds exchangeable into the copper smelting company’s shares
- Renk Group shares plunge as much as 5.9% after the propulsion and drive-train technology company was downgraded at Citi, with analysts arguing the shares are too expensive following a rally in defense names
- Strabag shares slid as much as 11% to €73.50 in Vienna on Wednesday, after the Haselsteiner family sold 2.5 million shares in the construction company at a discount
- Rathbones Group shares decline as much as 3.7%, the most since May, as outflows continued for the investment management firm in 3Q
Shares of Europe’s chip giant ASML are up 4% in pre-mkt after reporting strong order intake and above consensus 4Q25 guide. ASML’s 3Q25 revenue was below cons but EBIT of c.€2.5bn was 2% ahead. Bookings figure in 3Q was €5.4bn, broadly flat qoq from a strong 2Q25 order intake of €5.5bn and in-line with cons of c.€5.4bn including €3.6bn of EUV orders which came in materially above cons at €2.2bn. ASML highlighted that it does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025 and anticipates 4Q25 stronger than 3Q25 and in line with historical seasonality.
Earlier in the session, a sense of relief rippled through Asian stock markets on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s rate cut signals gave some good news to investors once again confronting the risk of a trade war. A regional gauge of shares gained 2%, rebounding from its three-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi Index was the stand-out performer, jumping 2.7% on buying from local funds. Stocks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan also advanced. The reversal in sentiment was largely prompted by Powell’s comments on Tuesday, which reinforced expectations of an interest-rate cut later this month. That gave investors a reason to look past escalating trade tensions between China and the US, after President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade in cooking oil with China in response to the country’s refusal to buy US soybeans. “While the rhetorical tit-for-tat between the US and China remains a main concern for market participants, Powell’s signals on the Fed’s rate cut and end of quantitative tightening are providing a meaningful relief this morning,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore. Attention will now turn to the first three-way meeting among Japan’s main opposition parties since the collapse of the ruling coalition. The discussion, taking place after Japan’s market close on Wednesday, will focus on whether the three parties can close policy gaps and pick a candidate of their own for the nation’s premiership.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.3%. The Aussie dollar and Norwegian krone are leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5% each. Asian currencies bounced back against the dollar following losses this week. The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Spot index rose 0.4%, its best performance in more than a month.
In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year borrowing costs down 2 bps to 4.01% amid small, curve-flattening gains in early US trading with long-end yields richer by around 2bp on the day. Treasury yields are 1bp-2bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 1.5bp flatter; Bunds and gilts in the sector are outperforming by 1bp and 3bp. Gilts provide support, outperforming after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey flagged a weaker jobs market and heading for their biggest four-day gain since April. Three Fed officials are slated to speak.
In commodities, spot gold rises $50 having notched another record earlier today. Silver is up over 2%.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Miran, Waller and Schmid, the ECB’s de Guindos, Rehn and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Ramsden and Breeden. We’ll also get the Fed’s Beige Book, and the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey. Finally, earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.5%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.9%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
- DAX +0.2%
- CAC 40 +2.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.01%
- VIX -1.1 points at 19.71
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1211.78
- euro +0.2% at $1.163
- WTI crude little changed at $58.68/barrel
Top Overnight News
- A menu of options is starting to emerge around what a compromise might look like for extending a suite of Affordable Care Act tax credits, which have become a focal point in the current government funding standoff. Behind the scenes, however, Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year. Politico
- The Fed’s Beige Book gains importance as delayed jobs data leaves policymakers relying on other indicators to assess September’s labor market. BBG
- In its trade standoff with Washington, Beijing thinks it has found America’s Achilles’ heel: President Trump’s fixation on the stock market. Xi Jinping is betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. WSJ
- China’s downward price pressures eased slightly in September, but not quite as much as expected, as Beijing ramps up efforts to curb excess capacity and bolster domestic demand. China’s inflation numbers for Aug are largely inline, w/the PPI at -2.3% (vs. the Street -2.3% and vs. -2.9% in Aug) and the CPI at -0.3% (vs. the Street -0.2% and vs. -0.4% in Aug). WSJ
- Japan’s legislature will hold an extraordinary session on Oct 21, although it’s not clear when exactly a vote to elect the next PM will take place. Nikkei
- Japan’s opposition leaders are to meet today to discuss uniting behind Yuichiro Tamaki as a PM candidate to challenge the LDP’s Sanae Takaichi.
- Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces. Budget is set to be published on Nov 26. Sky News
- The ECB’s Gabriel Makhlouf said he’s more worried that inflation will come in above the 2% target than below it. Interest rates are probably in a “fine position.” BBG
- ASML shares gained (+~415 bps) after orders crushed estimates, fueled by investment in AI infrastructure. It expects sales next year to be not below those of 2025. China was ASML’s biggest market last quarter, accounting for 42% of sales. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin says the US and China should engage in talks.
- China files complaint to WTO over India’s EV and battery subsidies; vows resolute measures to protect domestic industry, says Indian measures hurt China’s interests.
A more detailed look at overnight markets courtesy of Newsquawk
A regional gauge of shares gained 2%, rebounding from its three-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi Index was the stand-out performer, jumping 2.7% on buying from local funds. Stocks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan also advanced. Asian currencies bounced back against the dollar following losses this week. The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Spot index rose 0.4%, its best performance in more than a month.
Top Asian News
- Japan Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st.
- Japan’s DPP Leader Tamaki suggested another party leader’s meeting on Monday if things can be sorted; still some distance with the CDP. Understood that LDP leader Takaichi is proposing to form coalition with DPP.
- RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3, while she added the labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed. Furthermore, she stated that employment growth has slowed by more than expected and uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated, as well as noted that the Board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said they do not expect to use additional monetary policy (AMP) tools again anytime soon, while he added they will continue to update their approach to remain as prepared as possible to help New Zealand weather whatever economic storms come their way. Conway also announced that the RBNZ reviewed the frequency of its monetary policy decision announcements and acknowledged the perception that the gap between the November MPS and February MPS is too long, while they are to reduce that gap over the 2026/2027 period.
- S&P affirms New Zealand at AA+ foreign currency rating.
- China’s state planner issues action plan for developing EV charging infrastructure; aiming to establish 28mln charging facilities nationwide by end-2027.
- RBI sees rupee under speculative attack and will intervene further, according to Bloomberg.
European equities opened higher, buoyed by strong updates from ASML and LVMH, with the CAC 40 (+2.4%) leading gains after LVMH (+13.4%) beat Q3 revenue forecasts and political stability improved in France. Most European sectors trade in the green, led by Consumer Products & Services (+5.9%) on strong luxury brand performance (LVMH, Kering, Hermes), while Healthcare (-0.3%) lags due to cyclical rotation; Media (+1.7%) and Technology (+1.6%) also firm, with ASML’s results and resilient Chinese demand underpinning sentiment.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, via Sky News. When asked if the economy is in a “doom loop”, says, “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do”.
- French Socialist Party (PS) Faure says the Zucman tax will be reintroduced.
FX
- After starting the week on the front foot, DXY was knocked lower yesterday by a combination of a pick-up in the EUR, US-China trade tensions and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On the latter, the key takeaway was the ongoing acknowledgement of the softness in the labour market by the Fed Chair. Something which could be aggravated by the ongoing US shutdown and expectations of mass federal layoffs. One potential source will be today’s Fed Beige Book, which will provide anecdotal evidence on the performance of the US economy. ING argues that the Beige Book played a key role in the Fed’s 50bp cut in September 2024. Elsewhere, NY Fed Manufacturing and Cleveland CPI are due on deck, with the latter coming ahead of next week’s delayed BLS release. DXY has delved as low as 98.73 with the next target coming via the 9th October trough at 98.69.
- EUR remains buoyed following Tuesday’s French-induced bounce, which saw EUR/USD reclaim 1.16 to the upside. Markets took solace in the announcement by PM Lecornu to suspend pension reform. Whilst this itself is not seen as economically prudent, the move has been met with a positive response from the Socialists, who will not support any motion to censure the government. Elsewhere, the slew of ECB speak over the past 24 hours has failed to shift the dial for market pricing and that will likely remain the case with Villeroy, de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde due to give remarks. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1644.
- The Yen’s gains vs. the USD have extended into a second session with the former underpinned by a broad haven appeal alongside US-China trade tensions. That being said, the domestic story remains a tricky one with political tensions front and centre. Following the recent collapse of the ruling coalition, opposition parties are scrambling to see if they can present a credible candidate as an alternative to Takaichi. Accordingly, Japan’s Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st, as proposed by the LDP. Comments from the DPFP leader suggested that there is still some distance with the CDP in talks, but if issues can be resolved, there could be another meeting on October 20th. USD/JPY briefly made its way onto a 150 handle, delving as low as 150.91 before reclaiming 151 status.
- After the Pound’s brief wobble vs. the USD yesterday in the wake of a dovish labour market report, the pound has since stabilised and briefly hit a new high for the week at 1.3373. Yesterday’s jobs report was followed up by remarks from BoE Governor Bailey, who noted that the data support his view of a softening labour market. Additionally, Taylor also stated that he now sees a “bumpy” landing as more likely than a soft landing. Additionally, the November 26th budget is a great source of uncertainty for the MPC. On which, in an interview today, UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending for next month. The next upside target for Cable comes via the 1.34 mark.
- Antipodeans are both on the front foot vs. the USD, albeit the AUD is slightly outperforming its antipodean peer following a strong Yuan fix by the PBoC and hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3.
Fixed Income
- USTs are marginally firmer (+1 tick at 113-14), extending Tuesday’s gains amid lingering haven demand and cautious sentiment following renewed US-China trade tensions after Trump threatened to end cooking oil business with China; support also comes from dovish Fed commentary, with Powell signalling rising job market risks, nearing the end of balance sheet runoff, and justification for a September rate cut, while today’s focus turns to Fed speakers and the Beige Book.
- Bunds trade higher (+17 ticks at 129.85) within a 129.68–129.95 range, supported by dovish ECB comments from Villeroy suggesting the next move is more likely a cut. A relatively poor 2050/2056 Bund auction sparked little move on price action. Elsewhere, OATs outperform after France’s Socialist Party backed PM Lecornu’s temporary pension reform suspension, tightening the OAT-Bund spread to 78.32 from Tuesday’s peak of 84.50.
- Gilts outperform global peers (+36 ticks at 92.31), holding near highs of 92.39 with potential to retest early-August levels (92.66), supported by reports that Chancellor Reeves may halve the annual tax-free ISA allowance to boost UK equity investment, while broader budget discussions point to potential tax rises and spending cuts ahead of remarks from BoE’s Breeden.
- UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.49x, real yield 0.889%.
- Germany sells EUR 0.757bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 and EUR 1.182bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 Bund.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks trade rangebound, oscillating in a c. USD 0.50/bbl band. WTI and Brent remain below USD 59/bbl and USD 62.50/bbl, respectively, as markets wait for delayed weekly Private Inventory data following the US holiday on Monday. Elsewhere, Russian Deputy PM Novak said the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market, whilst Russia has the potential to raise oil production.
- Spot XAU has continued its historic rally, breaking beyond USD 4,200/oz, as Fed Chair Powell signals another cut this month. The yellow metal is currently trading at USD 4,218/oz, continuing with a broad consensus that XAU could reach USD 5,000/oz in 2026.
- Base metals remain choppy but paring back most of Tuesday’s losses as the dollar weakens on dovish Powell comments. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.75k/t and is currently trading off its best levels despite a lack of newsflow.
- Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market. Russia has the potential to raise oil production. No plan for Russia to submit new oil output without a compensation plan to OPEC. Demand for global energy is growing, especially for electric power. Demand for oil is also rising and is on par with 2024.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas accounts for some 19% of European gas imports; Russia is ready for discussions on gas supplies to Europe.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak, regarding US President Trump’s remarks about gasoline shortages in Russia, says Russia has stable domestic market supply.
Geopolitics
- “Israel’s Channel 12: It is being investigated that one of the four bodies of the hostages handed over does not belong to an Israeli hostage”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “Israeli Security: The Rafah Crossing will not be opened today for logistical reasons”, via Al Arabiya. “Technical checks before opening the Rafah crossing “take time”, Israeli security says.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Oct 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.7%
- 8:30 am: Oct Empire Manufacturing 10.7, est. -1.8, prior -8.7
Central Banks Speakers
- 9:30 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks at Invest in America Forum
- 12:30 pm: Fed’s Miran at Nomura Research Forum
- 1:00 pm: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Artificial Intelligence
- 2:00 pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 2:30 pm: Fed’s Schmid Holds Townhall Event
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
it’s certainly been quite a ride in markets since Friday’s trade escalation with many sentiment shifts in the subsequent 2-3 days. The last 24 hours has been a microcosm of that with the S&P 500 (-0.16%) only slightly lower after rallying hard from lows of around -1.5% just after the open and then bouncing off the highs of around +0.4% a couple of hours before the New York close. The rally back was caused by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell after Europe went home, but a late social media post from President Trump reignited some fears of US-China escalations. S&P Financials (+1.12%) were among the outperformers after banks kicked off Q3 reporting season, joined by defensives like Consumer Staples (+3.04%).
In his post, President Trump said that he believed China was “purposefully not buying our Soybeans”, and that in response they were “considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.” In turn, those comments revived Friday’s fears about a fresh escalation in the trade war, and it contrasted with some more emollient remarks from US Trade Representative Greer earlier in the day, who’d expressed confidence that tensions would ease in the coming weeks through ongoing trade talks. So risk assets have whipsawed over the last few sessions in response to the various headlines.
That backdrop meant the trade-exposed indices were the most impacted, especially after the late escalation. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index fell -1.95%, and that’s made up of companies publicly listed in the US who do most of their business in China. It did open over -3% lower though. Similarly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (-2.28%) struggled and closed near the lows of the day, given the importance of chips to the trade war. Indeed, it was tech stocks that lagged on a sectoral basis yesterday, with the NASDAQ (-0.76%) seeing a larger decline than the S&P 500 (-0.16%), with the Mag-7 (-1.33%) also lower, whereas small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 turned round from a -1.74% early loss to a big +1.38% gain.
It was Fed Chair Powell who provided a big offset to the trade fears, as he struck a more dovish tone than expected. The main headline was a surprise discussion around ending the shrinking of its balance sheet in the coming months. While our rates strategists suggest this timeline could be deliberately vague, it puts December on the map in terms of a halt. Indeed, recent history suggests “coming months” with regards to balance sheet changes has resulted in action within 2-3 months. There wasn’t much new on rates and the economy but there was no pushback to a cut later this month and the labour market commentary leant in a dovish direction as well.
The combination of the trade fears and the dovish comments has led to a decent rally for US Treasuries. For instance, the 10yr yield was unchanged yesterday, but overnight it’s fallen -2.1bps to 4.01%, which would be its lowest closing level since early April around the Liberation Day turmoil. Another factor that’s helped to keep a lid on yields has been a fresh drop in oil prices. So Brent crude oil prices (-1.47%) fell to a five-month low of $62.39/bbl, and overnight they’ve seen a further drop to $62.12/bbl. So even as the tariff threats have escalated again, investor concerns about inflation have come down, with the US 5yr inflation swap (-2.1bps) closing at a 3-month low yesterday of 2.54%. Nevertheless, the ongoing decline in nominal and real yields has continued to push up gold prices (+0.79%), which hit a fresh record yesterday of $4,143/oz, and overnight they’re up another +0.91% to $4,180/oz.
Otherwise, we’re now on day 15 of the government shutdown, which means we’re very close to overtaking the third longest shutdown in 2013, which lasted for 16 days. Moreover, a record 35-day shutdown certainly doesn’t look implausible anymore. There are still no signs of compromise either, and the Office of Management and Budget posted yesterday that they were “making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence”. So the rhetoric doesn’t sound at all like either side is preparing for a deal. If it weren’t for the shutdown, we’d have been writing about today’s CPI print for September, but that’s been delayed as well, so we’re flying blind on a growing amount of economic data right now. That said, this CPI print is one of the few things that will come out even if the shutdown continues, as it’s used in the social security calculations, so it’s currently scheduled for October 24.
Back in Europe, there was a big rally for French OATs as investor hopes grew for some sort of budget compromise. The main catalyst was that PM Lecornu proposed suspending the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election, meaning no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028. The Socialist Party have now said they won’t vote to topple the government. The proposed 2026 draft budget would aim for a 4.7% deficit of GDP, which is broadly in-line with the previous outlook, and without the pension reform puts the trajectory of deficit/GDP closer to 5.0% over time. So even though that might read negatively from a debt sustainability point of view, markets were reassured because it was seen as raising the chances that Lecornu would remain as PM and a snap legislative election would be avoided. Polymarket now have the probability of an election being called by year-end at 36%, down from 72% on Monday afternoon. So that meant French assets outperformed, with 10yr yields down -7.4bps, which brought the Franco-German 10yr spread down to a four-week low of 78.3bps. Moreover, the CAC 40 (-0.18%) outperformed the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-0.37%), with a strong performance for French banks including Société Générale (+2.42%), Crédit Agricole (+0.67%), and BNP Paribas (+0.41%).
Meanwhile in the UK, gilts were another outperformer after the UK labour market data was weaker than expected, which in turn led investors to price in more rate cuts from the BoE. Specifically, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% in the three months to August (vs. 4.7% expected), whilst private sector regular earnings growth fell to +4.4% (vs. +4.5% expected) at the same time, the weakest since December 2021. So that meant more rate cuts were priced in, with the amount expected by the June 2026 meeting up +5.9bps on the day. In turn, gilt yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr yield down -6.8bps, whilst sterling weakened -0.10% against the US Dollar. The weaker pound also supported the FTSE 100 (+0.10%), which was a relative outperformer on a day that most of the major global equity indices lost ground.
Otherwise in Europe, markets put in a weaker performance, with the DAX (-0.62%) posting a stronger decline, even if they closed before Powell’s speech. That came as the latest ZEW survey for October was underwhelming, with the current situation component falling to a five-month low of -80.0 (vs. -74.2 expected). Indeed, sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, in line with the broader risk-off tone, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-4.1bps) both falling back.
In Asia, most equity markets are recovering this morning, as the effect of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks has offered support. Plus they’d already reacted to some of the more negative trade headlines yesterday, so they’re now catching up with some of the more positive comments we’ve had since, unlike the S&P 500 which was reacting to both. So that’s seen gains across the region, with the Nikkei (+1.35%) rebounding, the KOSPI (+1.93%) at a record high, and the Hang Seng (+1.21%) increasing after a run of 7 consecutive declines. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.24%) and the DAX (+0.32%) both rising. However, stocks in mainland China have been weaker, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) and the CSI 300 (-0.03%) both seeing little change. That follows data this morning showing that Chinese CPI was weaker than expected, with a -0.3% decline in prices in September compared with the previous year (vs. -0.2% expected). Meanwhile, PPI inflation was at -2.3%, in line with expectations, marking a 36th consecutive month in deflationary territory.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Miran, Waller and Schmid, the ECB’s de Guindos, Rehn and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Ramsden and Breeden. We’ll also get the Fed’s Beige Book, and the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey. Finally, earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
2b) European opening report
NQ boosted after ASML results; USTs firmer & USD slips ahead of Fed speak – Newsquawk US Opening News
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 06:27 AM
- European bourses are in the green; LVMH +14% & ASML +3.6% both gain post-earnings; US equity futures also rise.
- USD losses extend into a second session, EUR remains underpinned by French optimism.
- USTs incrementally firmer, OATs gain as traders digest the latest pension reform suspension.
- XAU breaks USD 4200/oz, crude benchmarks muted amid heightened trade tensions.
- Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE’s Breeden, ECB’s Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA’s Bullock & Kent.
- Earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin says the US and China should engage in talks.
- China files complaint to WTO over India’s EV and battery subsidies; vows resolute measures to protect domestic industry, says Indian measures hurt China’s interests.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities opened higher, buoyed by strong updates from ASML and LVMH, with the CAC 40 (+2.4%) leading gains after LVMH (+13.4%) beat Q3 revenue forecasts and political stability improved in France.
- Most European sectors trade in the green, led by Consumer Products & Services (+5.9%) on strong luxury brand performance (LVMH, Kering, Hermes), while Healthcare (-0.3%) lags due to cyclical rotation; Media (+1.7%) and Technology (+1.6%) also firm, with ASML’s results and resilient Chinese demand underpinning sentiment.
- US futures point to a positive open (ES +0.5%, RTY +0.8%, NQ +0.7%) as dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell lift sentiment and ASML’s update supports tech, with focus now on US-China trade tensions, Fed speakers, and data including MBA mortgage applications, NY Fed manufacturing, Cleveland Fed CPI, and the Beige Book.
- Synchrony Financial (SYF) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 2.86 (exp. 2.24), Revenue 3.82bln (exp. 4.73bln), NII 4.7bln.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY NEWS
- ASML (ASML NA) – Q3 2025 (EUR): Revenue 7.516bln (exp. 7.790bln), Net 2.13bln (exp. 2.08bln), Net order bookings 5.4bln (exp. 5.36bln); guides Q4 revenue between 9.2bln to 9.8bln (exp. 9.23bln/9.48bln); does not expect FY26 total net sales to be below FY25.Gross Margin 51.6% (exp. 51.4%). An interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share will be made payable on November 6, 2025. Intend to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026. Weightings: 29.8% in Tech (largest), 4.76% in Euro Stoxx 50 (2nd largest), 2.28% in STOXX 600 (2nd largest).
- ASML (ASML NA) CFO says Co. is prepared for rare earth export controls, has all the materials needed for the coming months; number of customers in China is increasing; steel, aluminium tariffs do have “a bit” of impact on costs. Customer uncertainty around tariffs and trade war has partially receded since July. It’s possible that the Chinese chip market may see some consolidation. The expected China sales decline is not due to previous stockpiling. ASML needs limited quantities of rare earth materials.
FX
- After starting the week on the front foot, DXY was knocked lower yesterday by a combination of a pick-up in the EUR, US-China trade tensions and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On the latter, the key takeaway was the ongoing acknowledgement of the softness in the labour market by the Fed Chair. Something which could be aggravated by the ongoing US shutdown and expectations of mass federal layoffs. One potential source will be today’s Fed Beige Book, which will provide anecdotal evidence on the performance of the US economy. ING argues that the Beige Book played a key role in the Fed’s 50bp cut in September 2024. Elsewhere, NY Fed Manufacturing and Cleveland CPI are due on deck, with the latter coming ahead of next week’s delayed BLS release. DXY has delved as low as 98.73 with the next target coming via the 9th October trough at 98.69.
- EUR remains buoyed following Tuesday’s French-induced bounce, which saw EUR/USD reclaim 1.16 to the upside. Markets took solace in the announcement by PM Lecornu to suspend pension reform. Whilst this itself is not seen as economically prudent, the move has been met with a positive response from the Socialists, who will not support any motion to censure the government. Elsewhere, the slew of ECB speak over the past 24 hours has failed to shift the dial for market pricing and that will likely remain the case with Villeroy, de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde due to give remarks. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1644.
- The Yen’s gains vs. the USD have extended into a second session with the former underpinned by a broad haven appeal alongside US-China trade tensions. That being said, the domestic story remains a tricky one with political tensions front and centre. Following the recent collapse of the ruling coalition, opposition parties are scrambling to see if they can present a credible candidate as an alternative to Takaichi. Accordingly, Japan’s Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st, as proposed by the LDP. Comments from the DPFP leader suggested that there is still some distance with the CDP in talks, but if issues can be resolved, there could be another meeting on October 20th. USD/JPY briefly made its way onto a 150 handle, delving as low as 150.91 before reclaiming 151 status.
- After the Pound’s brief wobble vs. the USD yesterday in the wake of a dovish labour market report, the pound has since stabilised and briefly hit a new high for the week at 1.3373. Yesterday’s jobs report was followed up by remarks from BoE Governor Bailey, who noted that the data support his view of a softening labour market. Additionally, Taylor also stated that he now sees a “bumpy” landing as more likely than a soft landing. Additionally, the November 26th budget is a great source of uncertainty for the MPC. On which, in an interview today, UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending for next month. The next upside target for Cable comes via the 1.34 mark.
- Antipodeans are both on the front foot vs. the USD, albeit the AUD is slightly outperforming its antipodean peer following a strong Yuan fix by the PBoC and hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3.
- Click for a detailed summary
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are marginally firmer (+1 tick at 113-14), extending Tuesday’s gains amid lingering haven demand and cautious sentiment following renewed US-China trade tensions after Trump threatened to end cooking oil business with China; support also comes from dovish Fed commentary, with Powell signalling rising job market risks, nearing the end of balance sheet runoff, and justification for a September rate cut, while today’s focus turns to Fed speakers and the Beige Book.
- Bunds trade higher (+17 ticks at 129.85) within a 129.68–129.95 range, supported by dovish ECB comments from Villeroy suggesting the next move is more likely a cut. A relatively poor 2050/2056 Bund auction sparked little move on price action. Elsewhere, OATs outperform after France’s Socialist Party backed PM Lecornu’s temporary pension reform suspension, tightening the OAT-Bund spread to 78.32 from Tuesday’s peak of 84.50.
- Gilts outperform global peers (+36 ticks at 92.31), holding near highs of 92.39 with potential to retest early-August levels (92.66), supported by reports that Chancellor Reeves may halve the annual tax-free ISA allowance to boost UK equity investment, while broader budget discussions point to potential tax rises and spending cuts ahead of remarks from BoE’s Breeden.
- UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.49x, real yield 0.889%.
- Germany sells EUR 0.757bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 and EUR 1.182bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 Bund.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks trade rangebound, oscillating in a c. USD 0.50/bbl band. WTI and Brent remain below USD 59/bbl and USD 62.50/bbl, respectively, as markets wait for delayed weekly Private Inventory data following the US holiday on Monday. Elsewhere, Russian Deputy PM Novak said the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market, whilst Russia has the potential to raise oil production.
- Spot XAU has continued its historic rally, breaking beyond USD 4,200/oz, as Fed Chair Powell signals another cut this month. The yellow metal is currently trading at USD 4,218/oz, continuing with a broad consensus that XAU could reach USD 5,000/oz in 2026.
- Base metals remain choppy but paring back most of Tuesday’s losses as the dollar weakens on dovish Powell comments. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.75k/t and is currently trading off its best levels despite a lack of newsflow.
- Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market. Russia has the potential to raise oil production. No plan for Russia to submit new oil output without a compensation plan to OPEC. Demand for global energy is growing, especially for electric power. Demand for oil is also rising and is on par with 2024.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas accounts for some 19% of European gas imports; Russia is ready for discussions on gas supplies to Europe.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak, regarding US President Trump’s remarks about gasoline shortages in Russia, says Russia has stable domestic market supply.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU Industrial Production MM (Aug) -1.2% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. 0.3%)
- EU Industrial Production YY (Aug) 1.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, via Sky News. When asked if the economy is in a “doom loop”, says, “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do”.
- French Socialist Party (PS) Faure says the Zucman tax will be reintroduced.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
- Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook reportedly pledged to boost investment in China during a visit, according to Bloomberg. Cook met China’s MIIT Minister Li Lecheng on Wednesday, according to an agency post on its official WeChat account. Cook reportedly said Apple will boost cooperation with China.
- Apple (AAPL) shipped 10.8mln units in Q3, +0.6% Y/Y, according to IDC data
- Amazon (AMZN) is preparing to cut as much as 15% of its human resources staff, with additional layoffs likely in other divisions, according to sources cited by Fortune.
- Microsoft (MSFT) and NScale contracts some 200k NVIDIA (NVDA) GPUs to deliver AI infrastructure across Europe and the US.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- “Israel’s Channel 12: It is being investigated that one of the four bodies of the hostages handed over does not belong to an Israeli hostage”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “Israeli Security: The Rafah Crossing will not be opened today for logistical reasons”, via Al Arabiya. “Technical checks before opening the Rafah crossing “take time”, Israeli security says.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little firmer today and trades around USD 112.5k whilst Ethereum outperforms and climbs back above USD 4k.
APAC TRADE
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st.
- Japan’s DPP Leader Tamaki suggested another party leader’s meeting on Monday if things can be sorted; still some distance with the CDP. Understood that LDP leader Takaichi is proposing to form coalition with DPP.
- RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3, while she added the labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed. Furthermore, she stated that employment growth has slowed by more than expected and uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated, as well as noted that the Board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said they do not expect to use additional monetary policy (AMP) tools again anytime soon, while he added they will continue to update their approach to remain as prepared as possible to help New Zealand weather whatever economic storms come their way. Conway also announced that the RBNZ reviewed the frequency of its monetary policy decision announcements and acknowledged the perception that the gap between the November MPS and February MPS is too long, while they are to reduce that gap over the 2026/2027 period.
- S&P affirms New Zealand at AA+ foreign currency rating.
- China’s state planner issues action plan for developing EV charging infrastructure; aiming to establish 28mln charging facilities nationwide by end-2027.
- RBI sees rupee under speculative attack and will intervene further, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Sep) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Sep) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.3% (Prev. -2.9%)
- Japanese Capacity Utilisation MM SA (Aug) -2.3% (Prev. -1.1%)
- Japanese Industrial O/P Rev YY SA (Aug) -1.6% (Prelim. -1.3%)
- Japanese Industrial O/P Rev MM SA (Aug) -1.5% (Prelim. -1.2%)
LATAM
- US President Trump said he had a productive meeting with Argentina’s Milei and hopes the people of Argentina understand how good a job he is doing.
2c Asian opening report
European equities look to open higher, boosted by LVMH/ASML earnings & Powell speak – Europe Marker Open
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 01:34 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St.
- Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut.
- US President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.
- European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.
- DXY is softer and now basically flat on the week, AUD is attempting to atone for recent losses, EUR/USD sits on a 1.16 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production (Aug), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE’s Ramsden & Breeden, ECB’s de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA’s Bullock & Kent, Supply from UK & Germany.
- Earnings from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy with early pressure amid the heightened US/China tensions and mixed US bank earnings, while indices then reversed through the majority of the US session, before once again falling near the close as Trump upped his rhetoric on China, in which he threatened to terminate business with China related to cooking oil. As such, sectors ended mixed with Tech and Consumer Discretionary the laggards, while Consumer Staples and Industrials outperformed.
- SPX -0.16% at 6,644, NDX -0.69% at 24,579, DJI +0.44% at 46,270, RUT +1.38% at 2,495.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he is considering terminating business with China having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade, as retribution for purposefully not buying US soybeans.
- US President Trump earlier said they have to be careful with China and that he has a great relationship with President Xi, while he added that sometimes it gets testy, but stated they have a fair relationship with China. Furthermore, Trump said he is thinking about giving Spain trade punishment.
- USTR’s Greer said they have had constructive talks with China over the past six months and that China’s rare earths measures are disproportionate, while he thinks they will be able to work through issues with China over rare earth supply chains. Furthermore, he said the November 1st tariffs depend on what China does and that 100% US tariffs on China could come sooner.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell said the future path of monetary policy is driven by data and risk assessments, while data before the shutdown suggested growth may be better than expected. Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut, as well as noted that available data shows tariffs are pushing up price pressures. Furthermore, he said they may be approaching the end of balance sheet contraction in the coming months and that officials will be discussing the composition of the balance sheet.
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said even with some additional easing, monetary policy would remain “mildly restrictive” and it seems “prudent” to cut rates further given lower inflation risks and job market concerns. Collins stated that inflation should begin to ease as tariff impact wanes and downside risks to the job market have risen, but noted that favourable financial conditions will support households, and she expects more growth, a small climb in unemployment, and elevated inflation. Furthermore, she said inflation risks have become more contained, but tariffs will still push up prices, as well as stated that policy is not on a pre-set path and there are scenarios that would keep rates steady.
- Fed Discount Rate Minutes stated that Federal Reserve Bank directors generally reported stable economic conditions, but most also noted softening labour markets, weaker consumer demand, and continued uncertainty related to tariffs.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St and the latest salvo in the US-China trade spat, in which President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.
- ASX 200 climbed higher with the advances led by healthcare, materials and financials, with the latter helped by gains in Westpac after Australian regulator APRA removed the remaining AUD 500mln capital add-on applied to Westpac.
- Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 47,000 status with the index unfazed by a firmer currency and political uncertainty in Japan.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive sentiment in the region, but with gains severely limited in the mainland following the recent mixed messages by the US regarding the trade dispute with China, while participants also digested the latest inflation data from China, which showed CPI was softer-than-expected, and that both consumer and factory gate prices remained in deflation.
- US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.5%) treaded water following the prior day’s mixed performance and after earnings season got underway.
- European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY mildly softened with headwinds following the latest salvo in the US-China trade dispute, in which US President Trump said they are considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil, and other elements of trade, as retribution for purposefully not buying US soybeans. Participants also reflected on the latest comments from Fed officials, with Fed Chair Powell the main highlight, in which he noted that downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and that they may be approaching the end of balance sheet contraction in the coming months, with officials to discuss the composition of the balance sheet.
- EUR/USD eked slight gains above the recently reclaimed 1.1600 level amid the softer buck and with France’s socialist party providing PM Lecornu a lifeline, in which it announced it would not vote to oust him after he suspended pension reform, while there were several comments from ECB officials but had little impact.
- GBP/USD continued to recoup the prior day’s initial losses that were triggered by disappointing UK jobs data, which BoE Governor Bailey said supports his view of a softening labour market, while it was reported that Chancellor Reeves is seeking to revive plans for an overhaul of tax-free ISAs in an effort to divert billions of savings from cash into domestic stocks.
- USD/JPY trickled lower to test the 151.00 level amid the pressure in the dollar and as longer-end yields in Japan softened.
- Antipodeans edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite and as CNH benefitted after the PBoC strengthened the USD/CNY fix to beneath the 7.10 handle.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures kept afloat and took a breather after the previous day’s positive, but choppy performance, in which prices ultimately gained amid US-China tensions and after Fed Chair Powell suggested they were nearing the end of the balance sheet drawdown.
- Bund futures held on to recent gains, albeit with further upside capped heading into today’s Bund issuances.
- 10yr JGB futures struggled for direction with some slight curve flattening heading into the 20yr JGB auction which saw mixed results with a lower bid-to-cover ratio and higher accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lacklustre after declining yesterday amid US-China trade tensions and with IEA lowering its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast, while it also noted the world oil market faces a surplus of almost 4mln BPD next year as OPEC+ producers and non-OPEC rivals raise output and demand remains sluggish. Nonetheless, the downside was limited overnight amid the improved sentiment across the Asia-Pac region and with the weekly oil inventory data delayed for a day owing to the recent Columbus Day holiday.
- Spot gold extended on record highs amid the recent US-China frictions and anticipation of incoming Fed rate cuts.
- Copper futures traded rangebound following the prior day’s declines and recent mixed messaging from the US regarding the trade tiff with China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy and traded on both sides of the USD 113k level before retreating to session lows.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st.
- RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3, while she added the labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed. Furthermore, she stated that employment growth has slowed by more than expected and uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated, as well as noted that the Board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said they do not expect to use additional monetary policy (AMP) tools again anytime soon, while he added they will continue to update their approach to remain as prepared as possible to help New Zealand weather whatever economic storms come their way. Conway also announced that the RBNZ reviewed the frequency of its monetary policy decision announcements and acknowledged the perception that the gap between the November MPS and February MPS is too long, while they are to reduce that gap over the 2026/2027 period.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Sep) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Sep) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.3% (Prev. -2.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said the job is not done regarding Israel/Hamas as the dead have not been returned, while he said phase two begins right now.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he had a good relationship with Russian President Putin and that Putin doesn’t want to end the war, while he added that Ukrainian President Zelensky is coming on Friday and that Zelensky would like to have Tomahawks.
OTHER
- US President Trump said he ordered a strike on a vessel affiliated with a designated terrorist organisation conducting narcotrafficking off the coast of Venezuela.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said the labour market data supports his view of a softening labour market, while he noted that UK businesses tell him they are delaying investment decisions due to uncertainty and are not seeing a lot of impact yet on prices from tariffs.
- UK Chancellor Reeves revives plans to overhaul cash ISAs with Reeves mulling halving the annual tax-free savings allowance to encourage wider investment in the UK stock market, according to FT.
- UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, via Sky News.
- ECB’s Villeroy said the next rate move is more likely a cut than a hike, and the impact of US tariffs on Eurozone inflation should remain negligible.
- ECB’s Makhlouf said the European economy is showing resilience, and inflation is where they want it to be.
- ECB’s Kocher said a majority of stakeholders think banking rules have become too complex, and there is room for reducing the stock of regulation.
- French Socialist Leader Vallaud said they heard a signal that the government has listened and believes in debate in this chamber, while they will adopt the government’s proposed budget and said suspension of pension reform is a victory. It was also reported that the French socialists will not vote for a no-confidence motion, according to BFM citing a lawmaker.
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
‘Most Humbling Thing I’ve Ever Seen’: Western Business Leaders ‘Terrified’ After Touring Chinese Factories
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley and other top business leaders are “terrified” over China’s breakneck technological advancements, warning that the Asian superpower’s innovations could crush American companies if they don’t act fast, according to a stunning report from The Telegraph.
Farley, after touring Chinese factories, was left reeling by the cutting-edge tech packed into their vehicles – including self-driving software and facial recognition systems [zh: yikes] “Their cost and the quality of their vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West,” Farley warned, per The Telegraph.
The Chinese aren’t just outpacing U.S. car companies.
Greg Jackson, head of British energy supplier Octopus, described a jaw-dropping visit to a “dark factory” churning out mobile phones with barely a human in sight. “We visited a dark factory producing some astronomical number of mobile phones,” Jackson told the outlet.
“The process was so heavily automated that there were no workers on the manufacturing side, just a small number who were there to ensure the plant was working. You get this sense of a change, where China’s competitiveness has gone from being about government subsidies and low wages to a tremendous number of highly skilled, educated engineers who are innovating like mad.”
Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest scrapped plans to build electric vehicle powertrains after witnessing China’s dominance firsthand. “We are in a global competition with China, and it’s not just EVs. And if we lose this, we do not have a future at Ford,” Forrest told The Telegraph.
Forrest described futuristic factories where robots rise from the floor, assembling trucks with zero human involvement. “I can take you to factories [in China] now, where you’ll basically be alongside a big conveyor and the machines come out of the floor and begin to assemble parts,” the titan said. “And you’re walking alongside this conveyor, and after about 800, 900 metres, a truck drives out. There are no people – everything is robotic.”
The humanoid robotics market could explode into a $5 trillion industry by 2050, driven by supply chains, maintenance, and support networks, with Morgan Stanley analysts predicting a surge in adoption by the late 2030s. Over 1 billion humanoids could be in use by 2050, with 90% in industrial and commercial roles.
Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, an early OpenAI backer, predicts a robotics breakthrough akin to ChatGPT within two to three years, envisioning robots that can chop vegetables or wash dishes.
China’s Unitree is already dominating, claiming 60% of the global quadruped robot market, leaving American players like Boston Dynamics scrambling to catch up. But there’s hope on the horizon: Tesla’s humanoid bots could give American consumers a fighting chance against China’s robotics juggernaut in the coming years.
end
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
GERMANY
KOLBE
SWEDEN
what took them so long to realize this!
(zerohedge)
‘Islam Must Adapt To Sweden’ — Swedish Deputy PM Urges Public Burqa, Niqab Ban
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch has called for a nationwide ban on burqas and niqabs in all public places, saying the country must “wake up from its naivety” about Islamism and act decisively to protect Swedish values and social cohesion.
The Christian Democrats (KD) leader told Aftonbladet that she wants legislation prohibiting the full-face coverings in streets, squares, shops, healthcare facilities, and other public settings — a step beyond previous local attempts to ban them in schools and public workplaces that were struck down under current law.
“You should be able to meet for real if you are on the street, if you are shopping in the square, or taking the children to the health center. Then I don’t want to meet someone who has covered their entire face,” Busch said.
She argued that the niqab and burqa are symbols of strict interpretations of Islam seen in totalitarian states, which she described as incompatible with Swedish society.
“Islam must adapt in Sweden. You can be a proud Swedish Muslim, Christian, Jew, or atheist, but there are fundamental Swedish values that must apply to us all,” she said.
Asked to clarify whether her proposal would amount to a ban on wearing the garments outside the home, Busch replied: “Yes, that’s it. We don’t want to see burqas and niqabs out in Swedish public. Then we can’t control, and shouldn’t control, what people do at home. But the burqa doesn’t belong in Sweden and we won’t pave the way for it.”
Busch said critics who accuse politicians of overreach by trying to regulate how people dress are guilty of “very naive liberalism” that has contributed to Sweden’s failed integration policies. She cited estimates that around a quarter of a million young people in Sweden live under conditions similar to honor oppression and said nearly 70,000 women in the country have undergone female genital mutilation.
“It has gone far too far already. It will take a long time to reverse this. Then we also need to keep the issue of niqab and burqa clearly on the agenda and ban it while we can,” she said.
“You are very welcome to be a Muslim in Sweden, but not in the way that Islam is practiced in Iran and Afghanistan. I don’t want to bring more totalitarian Islamists here. They are not welcome here in the future, and you have to adapt if you are already in the country,” Busch said.
Education and Integration Minister Simona Mohamsson, leader of the Liberal Party, expressed support for stronger action against religious oppression, including forced veiling, though she did not explicitly endorse Busch’s proposal.
“Burqa and niqab are oppressive garments that are based on the idea that women should not be visible in public space,” Mohamsson told the Swedish newspaper.
Sweden’s Christian Democrats will vote on Busch’s proposal at their national congress in mid-November.
Busch’s call moves the Swedish government closer to positions long advocated by the Sweden Democrats, who support the minority government through a confidence-and-supply agreement. Their leader, Jimmie Åkesson, has repeatedly called for more radical steps, including the demolition of mosques, to halt what he describes as the Islamization of Sweden.
Such views are increasingly reflected in mainstream political debate across Europe. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, leader of the largest party, PVV, has called for a ban on building new mosques, while Spain’s Vox party recently highlighted a doubling in the number of mosques over the last decade, describing it as evidence of a “suicidal migration policy” that must be reversed.
Across the continent, a number of countries have already adopted restrictions on face-covering garments in public spaces.
France passed the first such national ban in 2010, followed by Belgium (2011), Austria (2017), Denmark (2018), and most recently Switzerland (2025). Others, including the Netherlands and Bulgaria, have enacted partial or local bans.
Last week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) party announced plans to introduce a similar measure.
“Religious freedom is sacred, but it must be exercised in the open, in full respect of our constitution and the principles of the Italian state,” said FdI MP Andrea Delmastro, one proposer of a new bill to address the issue.
END
POLAND
Poland’s Beer Industry Is In Trouble
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Just like neighboring Germany, Poland’s beer industry is reeling, with slightly different factors at play in the Polish market contributing to the decline.
“The beer season that just ended was disappointing. Unfortunately, in the first half of the year, we saw a decline exceeding 6 percent,” said Bartłomiej Morzycki, director general of the Union of Brewing Industry Employers – Polish Breweries.
“The summer months brought no improvement, and in fact, deepened the decline. It was the weakest season for the brewing industry in a very long time,” Morzycki continued.
Among the causes, he noted “exceptionally unfavorable” weather
As well as “broader issues” with the alcohol market overall, namely, lower alcohol consumption, he told ISBnews, as cited by Do Rzeczy.
“For some time now, we’ve been observing a steady trend of reducing alcohol consumption among large groups of consumers. Some are giving up alcohol altogether, while others are limiting their consumption,” Morzycki told the portal.
The trend is not simply due to health concerns but also the cost of alcohol, which, in the face of rising prices and a slower economy, many now see as quite expensive.
“Paradoxically, salary statistics might suggest that purchasing power is increasing and that the average salary can buy more beer, but this remains purely theoretical. In practice, consumers are buying significantly less,” he emphasized.
“The summer season is behind us, so since the market didn’t recover then, it’s difficult to expect a significant change at the end of the year. This will likely be the deepest market decline, greater than in 2023, when we were struggling with the effects of high inflation,” he pointed out.
Meanwhile, sales of non-alcoholic beer are growing at a double-digit rate, but this has done little to help offset the decline in sales of alcohol.
He noted that the biggest challenges facing the industry today remain the implementation of a deposit-refund system, which requires a significant investment and organizational effort, as well as the intensification of the debate surrounding alcohol policy.
“We still haven’t given up hope of saving the current deposit-refund systems for returnable bottles, which are effective and should never be incorporated into the system for disposable packaging. Under the new regulations, such bottles are no longer profitable. The system disrupts the current circulation chains for these bottles, and as a consequence, they may be forced out of the market because producers will have no incentive to use this type of packaging,” the director said.
Morzycki took aim at various proposals for higher taxes, which he says has created an atmosphere of “chaos” surrounding the alcoholic beverage market.
One proposal, he claims, even seeks to ban the advertising and sale of non-alcoholic beer.
He also noted the deposit refund scheme. Rising production costs, which have caused average beer prices to jump by about 45 percent over the past four years, have slowed somewhat. But the excise and deposit tax are still a problem. Morzycki estimates the excise tax will add some 20 groszy per can or bottle of beer, while the deposit will add an additional 50 groszy. The deposit tax can be refunded later, “but the customer will perceive the beer to be more expensive at the time of purchase. And this only applies to beer, as alcoholic beverages in disposable glassware are not covered by the deposit,” Morzycki concluded.
Given the current challenges and the risk of further ones, he says there is a high chance some breweries will not survive.
“Unfortunately, considering the above risks – and I’ve only mentioned some of the emerging ideas – even partial implementation could prove disastrous for a large portion of the beer market,” he told ISBnews.
“For example, when it comes to excise tax, if the government’s proposed increase is implemented, we’ll have a rate at the same level as Denmark. The beer excise tax in Poland is already significantly higher than in Germany or the Czech Republic, and we’re starting to see beer imported from those countries. This means consumption is occurring here, but taxes and jobs remain abroad. As a consequence of such a policy, the slow disappearance of breweries will be a reality,” the director stated.
END
LUXURY GOODS/EUROPE/LVMH
this is a little surprise! Luxury goods on the rise: LVMH soars
(zerohedge)
LVMH Soars After Surprise Return To Growth, Signaling Possible End Of Luxury Downturn
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 08:05 AM
Shares of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE in Paris jumped the most since the dot-com era after the world’s largest luxury group unexpectedly returned to sales growth in the third quarter, signaling a potential end to the multi-year luxury downturn that had halved the stock.
Third-quarter results showed organic revenue growth of 1%, marking a return to expansion after two consecutive quarters of decline. The rebound was broad-based, led by Selective Retailing and Wines & Spirits, signaling early signs of stabilization in global luxury demand. While Fashion & Leather Goods remained in contraction, the pace of decline narrowed significantly from previous quarters, suggesting momentum is starting to turn and a bottom could be in.
LVMH Q3 Earnings Snapshot (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Organic revenue: +1% (beat est. -0.7%), marking a return to growth after two quarters of decline.
- Total revenue: €18.28B (-4.2% y/y), slightly above estimates (€18.17B).
By Division (organic growth vs. estimates):
- Fashion & Leather Goods: -2% (better than -3.5%)
- Wines & Spirits: +1% (beat -3.2%)
- Perfumes & Cosmetics: +2% (in line)
- Watches & Jewelry: +2% (beat +1%)
- Selective Retailing (Sephora, DFS): +7% (beat +4.6%)
By Region (organic growth vs. estimates):
- U.S.: +3% (beat +1.9%)
- Asia ex-Japan: +2% (beat -3.6%)
- Japan: -13% (missed -4%)
- Europe: -2% (missed +1.5%)
“The desk is also busy in Consumer Discretionary. There has been a decent uptick in activity in Luxury following LVMH figures with two-way better buy flow in the name, though the desk did find supply in the broader luxury space namely with Richemont and Ferrari,” UBS analyst Eva Kindt told clients earlier.
In a separate note, the UBS analyst Pilar Rocafort noted, “Despite the strong share price performance in the last month (up 9%), which raised expectations into LVMH’s Q3 print, UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz believes the much better growth of the overall group should be taken well by the market. Especially the largest Fashion & Leather Group division’s organic sales growth (OSG), at a 2% decline, came in better than expected (as per Zuzanna’s conversations with investors the buy-side was looking for a 3% or 4% decline), with OSG improving sequentially ahead of the comparable basis. Shares in LVMH jumped 12% at the open on Wednesday, per Reuters.”
RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania said, “We view these results as a step in the right direction.”
Shares in Paris jumped as much as 14%, marking the largest intraday increase since the 16.9% surge on September 24, 2001.
Shares are retracing after being halved since the 2023 peak when the luxury downturn first unfolded.
LVMH is a bellwether for the luxury industry, providing tailwinds for luxury and consumer stocks today, with Gucci-owner Kering SA and Hermes International rising in Paris.
Oddo analyst Jean Danjou told clients, “The return to positive growth for the group as a whole in Q3 suggests an improvement in its relative position compared to the rest of the sector.”
“The pace of recovery, stemming from all regions, is encouraging and bodes well for a return to growth next year and beyond,” JPMorgan analysts said.
Related:
Could the luxury downturn be in the early stages of bottoming, if not reversing?
EUROPE
Concerns Mount Over Europe’s Below-Average NatGas Storage Levels Ahead Of Winter
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 05:45 AM
A report from the European Network for Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) shows that while the EU is well-prepared for the 2025–26 winter, natural gas storage levels across the bloc are significantly lower than this time last year and remain well below the 10-year average. Europe relies heavily on stored NatGas to meet winter heating demand. Entering the cold season with reduced reserves could drive prices higher, as consumption is set to rise steadily with colder weather ahead.
Key points from ENTSOG’s report:
- The EU gas system reached a storage level of 83% on 1 October, showing resilience in case of further disruption to gas supply from Russia and limited supplies of LNG. This level is in the range observed in the years prior to the energy crisis.
- Even without Russian pipeline gas imports, winter can end with EU storage filled at 35%. This would provide a good basis for refilling gas storage facilities next summer.
- In scenarios where there is further major disruption in supply, the EU gas system is resilient enough to increase LNG imports and compensate for the loss of supply. This resilience can also limit the need to reduce demand for gas in case of extreme weather conditions.
However, not everyone was as confident as ENTSOG. NatGas researcher Tomasz Włodek pointed out on X, “The level of natural gas storage in the EU is 83% and is significantly lower than last year’s (95%) and lower than the multi-year average (89.4%).”
Włodek continued, “Taking into account preliminary weather forecasts, the maximum storage level is unlikely to exceed 85%.”
Underground Gas Storage fill level in the European Union in 2025 (compared to 2024 and the 2011–2023 range), %
In Germany…
And the Netherlands.
Russian news TASS reports…
Europe depends heavily on stored NatGas to meet winter heating and power demand when consumption spikes. Storage acts as a shock absorber when it is full; when it is low, it triggers panic buying.
Especially after the Ukraine-Russia war, Europe’s NatGas system now depends far more on LNG regasification terminals in Spain, France, and the Netherlands.
Analysts and traders watch weekly storage reports that will heavily influence Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, power prices, and carbon contracts.
TTF futures are trading at 31.750 a megawatt-hour late Tuesday, range-bound between 30 and 35 since summer.
Let’s just hope Europe doesn’t have a fierce winter.
SPAIN/USA
Trump Again Lambasts “Very Disrespectful” Spain, Threatens “Punishment Through Tariffs”
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 02:45 AM
President Trump has again put Spain in the spotlight in some Tuesday afternoon comments which again included the threat of economic isolation and punishment. He went so far as to call out the NATO country for being “very disrespectful”.
“I’m very unhappy with Spain. They’re the only country that didn’t raise up their number to 5 percent. Every other country in NATO raised up to 5 percent… It wouldn’t matter if you said you’re not gonna protect them because they’re pretty much protected, you know,” he began
“What you’re gonna do? Go through the other countries and ‘let’s go attack Spain,’ right?” he then questioned. “So I think what they did is not nice, I think it’s very disrespectful to NATO.”
And that’s when Trump threatened, “In fact, I was thinking about giving them trade punishment through tariffs because of what they did, and I may do that… I think they should be punished for that, yes.”
During the latest NATO summit held in The Hague, member nations pledged to allocate 5% of their annual GDP to core defense needs and broader defense and security expenditures by the year 2035.
When last week Trump issued his initial threat of repercussions against Spain for lack of pulling its own weight in the alliance, Spanish officials brushed it off.
Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles last Friday said her country is “not worried” about getting kicked out of NATO as the lowest spender on defense.
“We are not worried,” Robles said. She added later, “I believe that President Trump must know that Spain is one of the committed and loyal (NATO) allies.”
This was in response to Trump earlier calling Spain a “laggard” given the nation merely contributed 1.3 percent of its GDP to its defense last year.
Trump had said, “We had one laggard. It was Spain, Spain. You have to call them and find out why are they a laggard, and they’re doing well, too.”
He had added in last week’s comments, “They have no excuse not to do this, but that’s all right. Maybe you should throw them out of NATO, frankly.”
end
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
SRAEL /HAMAS/GAZA
Israel Won’t Reopen Rafah Crossing As Hamas Fails To Return Bodies Of Slain Hostages
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Hamas returned just four of 28 hostages’ bodies on Monday, upon releasing all remaining living hostages. But Israeli leaders have condemned what they call a serious breach of what was agreed to in the Trump-brokered ceasefire deal.
The Israeli military has so far confirmed the identities of at least two of them – Guy Illouz from Israel and Bipin Joshi, a student from Nepal. Hamas indicated Tuesday it plans to hand over four more of the deceased in late evening hours.
Israel is now saying it will not reopen the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt on Wednesday and will also take the punitive step of reducing the flow of aid into the territory, until Hamas follows through with returning all of the deceased.
The Red Cross has been warning it could take “much more time” to retrieve the remains of all the hostages due to the extreme conditions inside the Strip.
Some of the families of the hostages which have not been returned are calling on the government to put the Gaza deal on hold until they are returned.
Thus this appears to the be first significant challenge and hurdle in the post-swap part of the deal. Likely some among the hawks and hardliners within the Israeli government want to use this as a justification for the resumption of the war.
But Prime Minister Netanyahu is unlikely to want to provoke Trump, who has boasted that the deal will stick and that this marks a new dawn in the Middle East.
As for Israel not reopening Rafah, per what was agreed, the consensus within the IDF is that Hamas hasn’t made a significant effort to retrieve the bodies.
Hamas accused of a “blatant breach”…
“The moves followed assessments by Israeli defense officials that Hamas has not made significant efforts to return the remaining bodies of the hostages and amid rising anger among their families, with the main group representing them demanding that the ceasefire agreement’s implementation be halted until their loved ones are returned,” Times of Israel writes.
As for the other two bodies handed over, Hamas has said they are 53-year old Yossi Sharabia and 22-year old military officer Cpt. Daniel Perez. Egypt is said to be assisting in the retrieval of the remaining hostages’ remains.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/TRUMP
Trump: If Hamas doesn’t uphold vow to disarm, ‘we will disarm them, perhaps violently’
By Jacob Magid
‘All hell breaks loose’ if Hamas refuses to disarm, Netanyahu tells US media
Netanyahu to US media: ‘All hell breaks loose’ if Hamas refuses to disarm
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives an interview to CBS News, amid his years-long near-total boycott of Israeli media, saying that if Hamas doesn’t agree to disarm, “all hell” will break loose.
“We agreed to give peace a chance,” says Netanyahu when asked by the American network how it can be said that the war is over when the IDF is still deployed in parts of Gaza and Hamas is reasserting control of the Strip.
The premier touts US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, which has been okayed by both Israel and Hamas, and stipulates that the Palestinian terror group must be disarmed and Gaza demilitarized, with no weapons factories operating inside the Strip and no smuggling on its borders.
“We agreed, let’s get the first part done, and now let’s give a chance to do the second part,” Netanyahu says, voicing hope that Hamas will hand over its arms peacefully, and paraphrasing Trump as saying that otherwise, “all hell breaks loose.”
Trump has said that if Hamas doesn’t uphold its side of the deal, “we will disarm them,” perhaps “violently.”
Asked what it would take for him to declare the war over, the premier says: “I think that, for the foreseeable future, not only for Israel but for the free world, and for the civilized world, you have to maintain your ability to defend yourself, because freedom is not permanent, nor is it automatic. If you cannot defend free societies, they will be overtaken by authoritarian or totalitarian regimes.”
When the interviewer remarks that this sounds like Israel will be at war for another 100 years, Netanyahu disagrees, saying that “the way you purchase peace is through strength” and touting the Trump-brokered normalization deals he signed in 2020 with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, though the latter is indefinitely suspended.
“I think we have an opportunity to make peace with many, many more,” he adds. “And that, I think, would be the greatest gift we can bring the people of Israel, the people of the region, and the people of the world.”
Asked about a remark Trump made at the Knesset on Monday that he isn’t “the easiest guy to deal with,” Netanyahu says: “Well, I hope he says that because I’m very tough on the matters that pertain to my country’s future. When I believe that what I’m asked to do is fine, I say [it] is, and when I think I have to say ‘no,’ I say it. And that’s my job. My job is to protect the Jewish state and assure the future of the Jewish people.”
END
HAMAS
In reality they returned 3 bodies with the 4th a dead Gazan
Sources: Hamas has said it will return 4 more bodies of hostages on Wednesday
By Jacob Magid
Hamas has informed the mediators that it will transfer four more bodies of deceased hostages to Israel on Wednesday, a Middle Eastern diplomat and a second source familiar with the matter tell The Times of Israel.
The transfer would bring the number of hostages’ bodies returned by Hamas to 12, while another 16 would remain in the Strip.
Hamas has claimed that it needs time to reach all of the bodies as some of them are located underneath the rubble of buildings and tunnels bombed by the IDF, while others are located in areas under the IDF’s control.
Israel has dismissed Hamas’s claims as stalling tactics and has threatened to limit aid, keep the Rafah border crossing with Egypt closed, and resume fighting if the terror group doesn’t immediately return the remaining bodies.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Hamas misrepresented the number of bodies it told mediators it would be able to produce of the 28 that remained in Gaza before the deal was signed.
“We were told they had 26, 24 dead hostages… and it seems as though they don’t have that because we’re talking about a much lesser number,”
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS ET AL
Trump: Hamas must disarm or we will disarm them ‘perhaps violently’
Trump stated earlier that “the job IS NOT DONE” after Hamas violated the 72-hour deadline set for the return of all hostages, living and dead, from captivity in Gaza in a social media post.
U.S. President Donald Trump points a finger as he speaks during a roundtable on antifa, an anti-fascist movement he designated a domestic “terrorist organization” via executive order on September 22, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 8, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 14, 2025 20:21Updated: OCTOBER 15, 2025 14:51
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Hamas must disarm or the terrorist group will be disarmed.
“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” Trump said later during a meeting at the White House with Argentine President Javier Milei.
Trump stated earlier that “the job IS NOT DONE” after Hamas violated the 72-hour deadline set for the return of all hostages, living and dead, from captivity in Gaza in a social media post.
“Phase Two begins right NOW!!!” Trump stated, referring to the next phase in implementing his Gaza peace plan.
An Israeli diplomat told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday that while phase one included the return of all hostages, phase two generally aims to demilitarize Gaza and preliminarily establish a temporary Palestinian government.
Trump’s plan for Gaza includes 20 defined points without any defined separation between “phases.” It is yet unknown exactly what a “phase two” entails.
The return of hostages has not been completed
Hamas was given 72 hours to return all hostages, living and dead, since both Hamas and Israeli negotiating teams agreed upon the deal.
The deadline passed on Monday, with the remains of 24 deceased hostages still in Hamas custody. In response to Hamas violating the deadline, Israel restricted the flow of aid being allowed into the Gaza Strip.
Egyptian teams entered the Gaza Strip and are participating in attempts to locate any remains that Hamas terrorists may have misplaced over the past two years of war.
On Tuesday evening, Hamas announced its intention to return four more sets of hostage remains to Israel.
Zvika Klein and Reuters contributed to this report.
END
Remains of three hostages identified, fourth person returned Tuesday not a hostage
The remains were identified at Abu Kabir Forensic Institute.
Uriel Baruch, Tamir Nimrodi, and Eitan Levi(photo credit: GETTY IMAGES, Hostages and Missing Families Forum)ByFRAIDY MOSEROCTOBER 15, 2025 07:21Updated: OCTOBER 15, 2025 13:27
The remains of deceased hostages Uriel Baruch, Staff Sergeant Tamir Nimrodi, and Eitan Levi were identified at the Abu Kabir Forensic Institute early on Wednesday morning, Israeli media reported.
The IDF confirmed that the remains of the fourth body that were returned on Tuesday night do not belong to a hostage. A forensic examination confirmed that they were the remains of an unknown Palestinian.
This is not the first time Hamas has returned “hostage” remains that were later determined to be the remains of someone else. In February of this year, the IDF confirmed that the remains the terror group returned, which it claimed belonged to Shiri Bibas, did not match any of the hostages.
Later on Wednesday, however, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post that Hamas had likely sent the wrong remains on Tuesday by mistake, adding that officials hoped another hostage release round would occur later that day.
Uriel Baruch, who was initially kidnapped from the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, leaves behind his wife and two children, as well as his parents and siblings.
The Baruch family shared in their statement, “Dear family and friends, it is with great sorrow and deep pain that we announce the return of the body of our beloved Uriel Baruch, may his memory be a blessing, from the Gaza Strip, after nearly two long years of prayers, hope, and faith.”
The memorial service will be held today, Wednesday, October 15, at 18:00, at the ‘Nitzach Uriel’ synagogue, as planned. Additional details regarding the burial ceremony and the reception will be provided later. May his memory be a blessing.”
The families of the hostages and the released extended their condolences to Uriel Baruch’s family following his return to Israel for a proper burial. “Alongside the grief and the understanding that their hearts will never be whole again, Uriel’s return brings some measure of solace to a family that has lived in unbearable uncertainty and doubt for over two years. We will not rest until all 20 hostages are brought home.”
Staff Sergeant Tamir Nimrodi was abducted alive by Hamas from his base and was likely killed early in the war. Tamir was 18 years old at the time of his death, according to the IDF. Final conclusions on his death will be made after further examination.
Nimrodi was taken barefoot, in his pyjamas, and without his glasses, alongside Ron Sherman and Nik Baizer. Both Baizer and Sherman were mistakenly killed during an IDF strike.
He was serving as an education NCO at the Coordination and Liaison Administration on the Gaza border. He had completed ten months of service and was set to join officer training shortly before his kidnapping. A caring and social person, Tamir volunteered to cover Shabbat duty on October 7.
After his kidnapping, a note was found in his room on which he had written: “I want to help as many people as possible, expand social circles, and never hurt anyone.”
Tamir was kidnapped alive and killed by IDF bombings while in captivity. He is survived by his parents, Herut and Alon, and siblings, Amit and Mika.
“After two years of agonizing uncertainty, filled with hope and a desire for a different outcome, we received the heartbreaking news of our beloved Tamir’s identification. Tamir was brutally kidnapped from his base and murdered while in Hamas captivity. Tamir was returned to Israel yesterday for his final rest. We are in moments of deep pain and reflection, but we will not abandon the families of the remaining hostages until the last one is brought home,” Tamir’s family said.
The families of the hostages and the released expressed their sorrow upon hearing of Tamir Nimrodi’s tragic death. His return ended 740 days of uncertainty and pain. The families stand with the Nimrodi family during this difficult time and will continue to support them.
Eitan Levi, 53, was abducted from the Mefalsim Junction on October 7, 2023, and his body was taken to Gaza. His death was confirmed on December 8, 2023. He leaves behind a son and a sister.
The family of Eitan Levi said, “With great sorrow and deep pain, we announce the return of our beloved Eitan Levi, may he rest in peace, from the Gaza Strip after nearly two long years. Details of the funeral and the mourning period will be provided later. We kindly ask for respect for the family’s privacy during this time.”
The Red Cross collected the remains of four bodies
The Red Cross collected the four bodies earlier on Tuesday from a private space in Gaza City, the IDF confirmed, following reports that Hamas terrorists would release four more bodies at 10 p.m.
The bodies were transferred to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine in Abu Kabir, where identification procedures will be carried out, the military added. Israel Police issued a statement at approximately 1:15 a.m. Wednesday morning, confirming that the bodies arrived at the institute.
An Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post that four more bodies are expected to be returned on Wednesday night.The reports come after Israel announced a reduction in the amount of humanitarian aid and the closure of the Rafah crossing as a punitive measure for Hamas failing to return the bodies of killed hostages.
Hamas only returned four hostage bodies on Monday because the terror group did not take the Gaza ceasefire condition seriously, an Israeli official told N12 the same day. It is only in recent hours that Israel reportedly saw Hamas attempt to locate the hostages.
Amichai Stein, Danielle Greyman-Kennard, Uri Sela, Jerusalem Post Staff and Maya Cohen contributed to this report.
IRAN
Iran Gives Two French Nationals Decades In Prison For Alleged Spying
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 04:15 AM
France is outraged after Iran’s judiciary and state media announced Tuesday that two French citizens have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms after being convicted on several charges, including espionage for Israel. They are also accused of spying on behalf of France, which the country has rejected as ‘baseless’.
According to the judiciary’s Mizan Online website, the individuals received several sentences for alleged offenses such as “spying for French intelligence,” and “collaboration to commit acts against national security,” as well as “intelligence cooperation with the Zionist regime.”
The French nationals have since been identified in European media as Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris. The couple have been held at Tehran’s notorious Evin prison since their arrests well over three years ago. They’ve now been slapped with sentences for consecutive convictions which total over 30 years each.
Paris has condemned the “arbitrary detention” and has said the couple has been denied proper consular protection. But Tehran has continued to maintain they are spies for Mossad.
According to a backgrounder compiled by a Western organization which has lobbied for their release:
Cécile Kohler is a French national and educator who heads the National Federation of Education, Culture and Vocational Training (FNEC FP-FO), reportedly the largest federation of teachers’ unions in France. Jacques Paris is her partner.
Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security announced on May 11, 2022, that it had arrested two Europeans for “promoting unrest and instigating chaos,” in the words of the Iran International news service. The ministry claimed the two had entered Iran in order to exploit ongoing protests to undermine Iranian society and had met with the Coordination Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade Associations, which has organized numerous demonstrations.
On May 12, a French trade union stated that the two detainees as Kohler and her unnamed husband and said they had traveled to Iran as tourists for Easter. Iran International reported that the two had arrived in Tehran on April 29, stayed two days, and then visited the cities of Kashan and Esfahan before being arrested during their return to Paris on May 8.
Iran may be trying to use the pair as bargaining chips, given that as Reuters has reported, “Iran has accused France of arbitrarily detaining Mahdieh Esfandiari, an Iranian student living in the French city of Lyon, who was arrested this year over anti-Israel social media posts.”
The French couple’s families say they survived explosions during Israeli strikes on Tehran’s Evin prison on June 23, and were then quickly transferred to another location, and are under the oversight of Iran’s Intelligence Ministry.
The events of the June 12-day war with Israel and the US has only hastened Iranian efforts to round up spies and uncover covert plots against the Islamic Republic. Iranians caught passing information to Israel face execution.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA
Military Analyst Warns US Doesn’t Have Enough Tomahawks To Send To Ukraine
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Military analysts have told the Financial Times that even if President Trump decides to approve US Tomahawk transfers to Ukraine, this will have limited impact on the trajectory of the war, given especially that a mere dozens will be available to send.
The report also suggests that the US is involved in too many conflicts at once, and that Pentagon stockpiles of advanced weapons are being depleted.
Trump started this week by issuing more ambiguous and vague statements on the Tomahawk issue. On Monday he had said Tomahawks are a “very offensive weapon,” noting, “honestly, Russia does not need that.” He hinted he ‘might’ pull the trigger on this escalation, amid Moscow warnings and threats.
FT found that out of over 4,000 Tomahawk missiles in the US arsenal, only “a few” could be given to Ukraine:
Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, estimated in a recent war game that the US had 4,150 Tomahawks in total. However, the US would probably be able to supply only a few to Ukraine.
This is in light of the fact that, out of the 200 the Pentagon has procured since 2022, it has already fired more than 120, according to defense experts. The defense department has requested funding for only 57 more Tomahawks in its 2026 budget. Washington would probably also need Tomahawks for any strike on Venezuelan soil.
Again, this reference to Venezuela is interesting, at a moment of unprecedented American military build-up in the southern Caribbean near the Latin American country’s coast. The US has also been expending its missiles on defending Israel, which happened at an increased pace especially over the past year.
Another Washington-based US military analyst put a number to how many Tomahawks American could afford to hand over:
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security think-tank, said Washington could spare some 20 to 50 Tomahawks for Ukraine, “which will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war”.
While the long-range missiles could complement Ukraine’s own long-range attack drones and cruise missiles “in large complex salvos to greater effect”, they would “still will be a very limited capability . . . certainly not enough to enable sustained, deep attacks against Russia”, they added.
And of course, the understated if not unspoken part is that all of this risks WW3 with Russia, something that Trump has repeatedly and openly voiced that he wants to seek to avoid at all costs.
On Monday former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a chilling response which spelled out that this “could end badly for everyone… most of all, for Trump himself,” according to a translation of his Telegram post.
“It’s been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it’s impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight,” Medvedev, who serves as the Russian Security Council Deputy Chair, further noted.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
Six Killed After US Strikes Boat Off Venezuela In 5th Such Operation
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 05:20 PM
President Trump has announced another military strike against a boat off Venezuela suspected of trafficking drugs on Tuesday, which killed all six people on board.
Trump stated that the vessel was “affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization” but did not name any organization or issue specific evidence to back this, only releasing unclassified video of the strike.
“Intelligence confirmed the vessel was trafficking narcotics, was associated with illicit narcoterrorist networks, and was transiting along a known DTO route,” the US President said on his Truth Social platform.
“The strike was conducted in International Waters, and six male narcoterrorists aboard the vessel were killed in the strike. No U.S. Forces were harmed,” he added.
This marks the fifth known strike on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea in recent months, with the prior four instances having killed 21 people total. A prior strike had been disclosed by the Pentagon in early October.
President Trump at the start of this month formally notified Congress this week that the US was entering a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.
Trump’s rationale for the attacks in his memo to Congress stated that the cartels are “non-state armed groups” whose actions smuggling drugs “constitute an armed attack against the United States”.
In particular the administration has essentially declared war on the Tren de Aragua cartel, and says it is cooperating with the Maduro government, which Caracas has rejected, and so the presence of the cartel’s members in the US is a “predatory incursion” by a foreign nation.
But human rights monitors, and a tiny minority in Congress, have questioned the legality of such deadly military attacks – especially given there has appeared no attempt to warn or intercept the boats.
Newly posted video of the Tuesday strike shows a fast-moving missile enter the frame and utterly destroy the small vessel:
Back when he was briefed by the DOD on an initial strike, Sen. Jack Reed, the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said “They have offered no positive identification that the boat was Venezuelan, nor that its crew were members of Tren de Aragua or any other cartel.”
Such pushback hasn’t abated these operations, at a moment of strong Pentagon build-up of assets off Venezuela, but now they’re becoming somewhat routine.
END
CUBA/USA
This is certainly getting the attention of the uSA especially if Russia sends missiles to Cuba
(KORYBKO)
Is Cuba Returning To US Crosshairs?
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The US and Ukraine’s arguably coordinated fearmongering campaign about the regional security consequences of Cubans allegedly fighting for Russia hints that the island will soon come under more pressure.
Reuters exclusively reported in early October that the State Department sent an unclassified cable to dozens of US missions directing diplomats to tell countries that Cuba sent up to 5,000 fighters to support Russia against Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence then promoted these claims in the New York Post, arguably through coordination with the State Department, which coincided with the Russian Upper House ratifying a new military cooperation pact with Cuba that has itself been the subject of speculation too.
Some suspect that it’s meant to formalize Russia’s reported military recruitment pipeline in Cuba that incensed some officials in Havana two years ago as analyzed here at the time, which might now include formal troops along the lines of an earlier pact with North Korea, while others see grander plans. Alexander Stepanov, military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told TASS that Russia might send Iskanders and even Oreshniks to Cuba under this pact.
According to him, this “would create an effective deterrent capable of reaching strategically important targets on US territory, thereby maintaining the balance of power and parity in offensive capabilities”, particularly in the context of possible US plans to send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. This line of speculation isn’t new since Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev proposed in January 2024 that Russia base nukes there and elsewhere in the region.
That would be sensible in principle but unlikely in practice since Cuba probably doesn’t want to risk provoking Trump into considering an Iranian-like maximum pressure campaign against it, especially not after he just ordered a regional military buildup on the pretext of stopping drug trafficking. Continued high-profile speculation about the scenario of Russian missiles once again secretly being sent to Cuba, whether from publicly financed TASS or a Duma official, could still be exploited to this end though.
Much more likely, however, is that the State Department’s reported cable about Cuban fighters supporting Russia against Ukraine is taken advantage of to gradually justify more pressure upon the island. About that, this claim might be true (regardless of whether it concerns volunteers and/or actual troops) just like earlier ones about North Korean support were later confirmed by Russia, but it would be Cuba’s legal right to allow its citizens to cooperate with Russia like this and/or send direct support.
Even if that’s all that there is their newly ratified pact, Ukraine’s fearmongering about it to the New York Post – which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper” – could suffice for returning Cuba to the US’ crosshairs. According to them, “The combat experience Cuban nationals gain in Ukraine is a dangerous and transferable commodity. This experience could be used to train proxies and destabilize other regions, particularly in Latin America, threatening the security of US allies and partners.”
It’s unimportant that the aforementioned is speculation since all that matters is that Trump somehow or another comes to believe (whether on his own or per the urging of close advisors) that this is a credible scenario and correspondingly authorizes a more muscular policy against Cuba.
This could even be driven by cynical electoral interests ahead of next fall’s midterms but disguised as being in the US’ national security interests.
Observers should therefore keep a close eye on US-Cuban ties going forward.
END
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN
Let us send in the Trumper!
Deadliest-Ever Fighting Between Pakistan & Afghanistan Sees Drone Strikes On Kabul
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 12:05 PM
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been exchanging their deadliest fire in years, and border clashes are now threatening to enter the Taliban-ruled Afghan capital of Kabul.
A tense, temporary ceasefire has been reached but only after Pakistan launched apparent drone strikes on Kabul, as well as the border province of Paktika, where fighting has raged. Eastern Afghanistan has also seen airstrikes by Pakistani Air Force jets.
“Explosions were also heard in Kabul, according to city residents who spoke to Radio Azadi. Unverified footage on social media appeared to show plumes of smoke rising into the sky in the Afghan capital,” observes US stated-funded RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty.
The fierce fighting stretches back to the weekend, which saw Taliban fighters and Pakistani security forces at several key border crossings, leaving dozens done, in what’s being described as the deadliest-ever fighting between the two sides, with many dozens killed and hundreds wounded.
“Many people on both sides of the border have vacated their houses and fled the area for safer locations fearing that the fighting may expand,” said one eyewitness of border clashes, which saw Pakistani helicopters firing down on settlements on the Afghan side.
Pakistan has owned up to the attacks inside Afghanistan, saying they were necessary for counter-terror operations:
Islamabad has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks. But during a press briefing Friday, Lt. Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a Pakistani military official, said there is “evidence” that “Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations for carrying out terrorism in Pakistan.”
Pakistan has long accused Kabul of harboring the militant group the Pakistani Taliban (known as the TTP), which Afghanistan’s Taliban denies. Pakistan has faced a surge in Islamist violence since the Taliban swept Kabul in 2021, emboldening militant groups.
This led to in some instances the Taliban retaliating against Pakistani positions along the some 2,600km border.
The Taliban does not have a real air force to speak of, nor does it have anti-air defenses, allowing Pakistani drones, jets, and helicopters to attack from the skies with impunity…
The two sides have reportedly agreed to 48-hour ceasefire, which Pakistani officials said took effect from 13:00 GMT on Wednesday.
Richard Bennett, UN special rapporteur for human rights in Afghanistan, wrote on X that he was “deeply concerned” by reports of mounting civilian deaths and displacement. “I urge all parties to exercise maximum restraint, protect civilians, and abide by international law,” he said.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1638 UP 0.0036 PTS OR 36 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 151.38 DOWN 0.324 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3355 UP .0033 OR 33 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4044 DOWN 0.0002 (CDN DOLLAR UP 2 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 46.98 PTS OR 1.22%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 469.28 PTS OR 1.84%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.98%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN (EXCEPT LONDON)
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 469.25 PTS OR 1.94%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 46.98 POINTS OR 1.22%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.98 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP A HUGE 825.35 PTS OR 1.76%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4190.60
silver:$52.60
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.57 DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.955% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.655% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.176 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.101 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.383 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.591 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1625 UP 0.0021 OR 21 basis points
USA/Japan: 151.61 DOWN 0.081 OR YEN IS UP 8 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.534 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.346 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0005 OR 5 BASIS pts to 1.4042
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1270 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1319
TURKISH LIRA: 41.84 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.655 DOWN 1 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.176 DOWN 5 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.011% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.613 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.493 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 4187.00
SILVER AT 1;00: 52.54
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 28.20 PTS OR 0.30%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 55.57 pts or 0.23%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 157.38 pts or 1.99%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 16.10pts or 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 168.76 or 0.40%
WTI Oil price 59.14 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.71 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 77.87 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 62/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.112 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.589 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1638 UP 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3389 UP .0067 OR 67 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5480 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.345 DOWN 5 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.650 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.163 DOWN 7 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.27 DOWN 0.430 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4049 UP 0.0008 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.61
Brent OIL: 62.23
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.043
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 PTS to 4.636%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 3.504%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.119 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.688 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.46 UP 32 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.83 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.65UP 2 AND 34/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,206.50 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 53.02 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 16.84 OR 0.04%
NASDAQ 100 UP 166.30 PTS OR 0.68%
VOLATILITY INDEX 20.62 DOWN 0.19 PTS OR 0.91%
GLD: $ 387.39 UP 6.60 PTS OR 1.73%
SLV/ $48.33 UP 153 PTS OR OR 3.27%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 278.09 PTS OR 0.92%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Gold Hits New Record High As Bessent/Beijing Battle Sparks Stock Swings
trading new york stock exchange:
Stocks Erase Gains As Trade Tensions Resurface; Bessent Blames ‘Lone Wolf Warrior’ Beijing Diplomat
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 01:15 PM
Update (1300ET): As we noted earlier, stocks jumped around the US cash open on optimistic headlines about possible tariff delays by Bessent and Greer: “*GREER: EXPECT CHINA RARE EARTHS MOVE DOESN’T GO INTO EFFECT,*BESSENT SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF LONGER CHINA TARIFF TRUCE”.
The realization that what they actually said was a nothing-burger took a while for the over-excited market to recognize and by the European close, stocks were fading once again.
Gains then quickly faded as the good-cop/bad-cop routine fell apart after Greer and Bessent also noted China’s hostility in global trade (and blamed a lone wolf Chinese diplomat for the shitshow).
“Perhaps the vice minister who showed up here with very incendiary language on August 28 has gone rogue,” Bessent said during the press conference at Treasury. “This individual was very disrespectful,” he said, after earlier calling him “unhinged” in the CNBC event.
Li had warned China would “cause global chaos” if the US went ahead with plans for port fees for Chinese ships, Bessent said.
“Maybe he thinks he’s a wolf warrior,” he said, referring to a term used for aggressive Chinese diplomats.
Bessent later added the following which did not help:
“If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world, then the world will have to decouple,” Bessent said.
“The world does not want to decouple; we want to derisk. But signals like this are signs of decoupling, which we don’t believe China wants. And again, we do not want to decouple. We should work together to derisk and diversify supply chains away from China as quickly as possible.”
Desk chatter was that the weakness was triggered by a WSJ article “China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump” that suggested Chinese leader Xi Jinping thinks president Trump will fold before launching new tariffs that would roil markets.
In other words, equity weakness is ‘required’ to stop Trump’s escalation and so the market tests that thesis.
Around 1300ET, stocks legged lower still as Fed’s Waller noted: “LAYOFFS, LOWER HIRING DUE TO AI EXPECTED TO INCREASE“.
All of which dragged stocks back down into the red…
* * *
US equity markets are surging again this morning following comments by Treasury Secretary Bessent (and USTR Greer) that appeared to suggest the possibility of a tariff truce with China.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent condemned China’s decision last week to step up curbs on its exports of rare-earth metals, calling the actions part of a broader plan by Beijing to control the world’s supply chains.
“China’s announcement is nothing more than a global supply chain power grab,” Greer said.
“This move is not proportional retaliation. It is an exercise in economic coercion on every country in the world.”
So that was Bad Cop.
And then Bessent played Good Cop…
But while Bessent said China’s “highly provocative move” comes after the U.S. has made significant efforts to de-escalate tensions, he said that the U.S. would rather not take action against Beijing.
“I believe China is open to discussion, and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated ultimately.
We are confident in the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.
We’ve had substantial communication with the Chinese over the past few days, and we believe that there will be more forthcoming this week,” Bessent said.
It is possible that “we could go to a longer roll in return for a delay” on rare earths export controls, Bessent said when asked if US would delay implementation of additional 100% tariffs on China.
“All that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks” before Chinese and US leaders meet in South Korea, he says.
None of that sounded particularly new or different to us, but no matter the confusion, the market ran with it…
But US-listed rare earth stocks tumbled on the possible delay: Critical Metals -20.5%, USA Rare Earth -13.6%, MP Materials -7.3%, Ramaco Resources -9.5%
Will the market’s strength prompt a response from Trump, using that hubris to take another shot at Beijing?
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY
Stocks and bonds chop while the Dollar takes a hit with US/China relations in focus – US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 04:14 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up.
- REAR VIEW: BAC & MS beat and rise after earnings; Anthropic announces cheaper model to widen AI’s appeal; Stellar ASML report; Beige Book notes employment levels largely stable in recent weeks; Impressive NY Fed Mfg.; Miran sticks to usual dovish tone; Bessent/Greer speak heavily on China.
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Employment (Sep), UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep) Speakers: BoJ’s Tamura, Uchida; Fed’s Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman, Kashkari; ECB’s Lane, Lagarde; BoC’s Macklem; BoE’s Greene, Mann Supply: Japan, Spain, France Earnings: TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Equity futures were bid overnight and into the US morning to peak just after the open before momentum turned with equities bottoming out after Europe left for the day. The trough was seen as Tech stocks took a hit, namely NVIDIA (NVDA), seemingly in response to a Reuters article that Anthropic updated its smallest AI model, which is much cheaper than its more expensive models, and performs as well or better. The news revived fears that tech names could be overpaying for AI chips from NVDA when the power needed may not be as much as initially thought – a similar reaction to the Deepseek fears. Elsewhere, there was a lot of focus on US/China relations. WSJ reported overnight that China is betting a hit on the US stock market will cause Trump to cave in negotiations. Meanwhile, Bessent and Greer spoke today, both noting that the recent export controls are a global supply chain power grab and act of economic coercion. However, Greer suggested there is room for positive relations with China, and he expects restrictions will not be implemented. In FX, the Dollar was sold with outperformance in the Pound, Franc and Yen, while CAD and Dollar underperformed. T-Notes bear flattened amid strong data from the NY Fed manufacturing PMI, while there is still a lack of official government data amid the shutdown, which still has no clear route to reopening. Oil prices aw further pressure with US/China and global oversupply fears in focus. Gold prices continued to push to fresh record highs, rising above USD 4,200/oz.
US
FED GOVERNOR MIRAN stuck to his usual dovish tone, but did acknowledge that moving in greater than 50bps increments is not necessary. However, he warned of the rising US/China tensions and noted that there is more downside risk than a week ago. He noted that with the change in the balance of risk, it is more urgent to get to a more neutral policy quickly, warning that the economy is vulnerable to shocks due to restrictive policy. He is less concerned about upside in inflation in the near future, and notes the labour market has clearly weakened. He sees substantial disinflation from housing in the coming months. On data, he is hopeful to have data in hand for the October meeting, and he will not rely on the outlook, but he is not seeing anything in alternative data yet to cast doubt on his base case. On the neutral rate, he said AI investment could lead to a higher rate, but there is difficulty in knowing the neutral rate exactly. On the balance sheet, he said it is appropriate to end QT in the not-too-distant future, adding he is not sure what the marginal benefit of additional reductions to the balance sheet would be.
BEIGE BOOK: Note, with a lack of government data, commentary from the Beige Book may get more attention than usual. It noted economic activity is little changed on balance since the prior report, but the outlook for future economic growth varied by district and sector. On the labour market, employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labour was generally muted across districts and sectors. In most districts, more employers reported lowering headcounts through layoffs and attrition, citing weaker demand, economic uncertainty, and in some cases, AI. Employers who reported hiring generally acknowledged improved labour availability, and some favoured hiring temp/part-time workers over full-time offers. Wages grew across all districts at a modest to moderate pace, while labour cost pressures intensified in recent weeks. The Beige Book has signs of stagflation, with little growth while prices continue to rise. However, employment levels were also largely stable, but more employers reported lowering headcounts.
NY FED MANUFACTURING: NY Fed Manufacturing in October soared to 10.7 from -8.7, above the expected -1.4 and the top end of the forecast range. New orders and employment notably improved to +3.7 (prev. -19.6) and +6.2 (prev. -1.2), respectively, but prices paid also jumped to 52.4 from 46.1. Shipments rose back into positive territory, and inventories improved but remained in negative territory. Looking ahead, the six-month business conditions index printed 30.5 (prev. 14.8), but prices paid and received also moved higher. Overall, NY Fed Research Advisor Deltz said, “Manufacturing activity increased modestly, the third increase in the past four months. Price increases picked up and are expected to pick up further in the months ahead, and optimism about the outlook improved noticeably.”
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 5+ TICKS LOWER AT 113-07+
T-Notes see two-way trade. At settlement, 2-year +2.4bps at 3.504%, 3-year +2.5bps at 3.508%, 5-year +2.4bps at 3.626%, 7-year +2.2bps at 3.814%, 10-year +1.8bps at 4.040%, 20-year +1.8bps at 4.605%, 30-year +1.1bps at 4.635%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.7bps at 3.214%, 3-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.616%, 5-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.356%, 10-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.284%, 30-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.223%.
THE DAY: T-Notes saw two-way trade on Wednesday, with upside overnight and into the morning fading in the US session. The initial upside was a continuation of the price action seen on Friday amid deteriorating US/China woes and commentary from Fed Chair Powell on the balance sheet. However, upside faded in the US session perhaps as participants digested data and commentary from the government and Fed officials. On data, the NY Fed Manufacturing survey beat expectations across the board, while prices paid and employment both rose. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer spoke on China, both explaining that China’s restrictions on exports are a global supply chain power grab and an act of economic coercion. Greer expects that the restrictions threatened will not be implemented and will revert to the prior agreement, noting there is room for a positive relationship with China. Bessent also reiterated they want to help China, adding the US told China that if the fentanyl issue is fixed for six months, the tariffs related to fentanyl can be removed. However, Bessent did warn that if China wants to be an unreliable partner of the world, it will need to decouple. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Miran stuck to his dovish tone, warning there is more downside risk than a week ago, suggesting it is more urgent to get to a more neutral policy quickly; however, he suggested the Fed do not need to move quicker than 50bps increments.
Amid the lack of data, the latest Fed’s Beige Book may get more attention. It found economic activity had little changed, while employment levels were largely stable but more employers reported lowering headcounts. Prices also rose further.
SUPPLY
Bills
- US to sell USD 110bln in 4-week bills and USD 95bln in 8-week bills on October 16th; to settle October 21st
- US sold 17-wk bills at a high rate of 3.810%, B/C 2.87x
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 24bps), Dec 48bps (prev. 49bps), January 62bps (prev. 62bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 5.5bln (prev. 3.51bln) across 20 counterparties (prev. 7)
- EFFR at 4.10% (prev. 4.10%), volumes at USD 80bln (prev. 87bln) on October 14th.
- SOFR at 4.19% (prev. 4.15%), volumes at USD 2.932tln (prev. 2.895tln) on October 14th.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.43 LOWER AT 58.27/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.48 LOWER AT 61.91/BBL
Oil saw further weakness on ongoing US/China tensions, oversupply of oil concerns and easing geopolitical risk premium. There was a lack of “new” headline newsflow on Wednesday, but attention continues to reside on the aforementioned topics, and also the US/Hamas peace deal, as the first phase of the deal is yet to be completed. On the day, WTI and Brent saw gradual upside through the European session and to the cash equity open, in line with risk sentiment, to hit highs of USD 59.42/bbl and 63.04/bbl, respectively. Benchmarks then sold off through the US afternoon as global risk appetite dwindled, seeing WTI hit a low of USD 58.20/bbl and Brent 61.79. In terms of bank commentary, BofA maintained Brent forecast of USD 61/bbl in Q4, and USD 64/bbl in H1 ’26, and sees a floor likely forming at USD 55/bbl; if US-China trade tensions escalate in the midst of the OPEC+ production ramp up, the desk warns Brent could drop below USD 50/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.41% at 6,672, NDX +0.68% at 24,745, DJI -0.04% at 46,253, RUT +0.89% at 2,518.
SECTORS: Real Estate +1.50%, Utilities +1.29%, Communication Services +1.27%, Technology +0.73%, Consumer Staples +0.15%, Consumer Discretionary +0.10%, Health +0.03%, Energy -0.08%, Financials -0.08%, Industrials -0.47%, Materials -0.49%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.89% at 5,602, Dax 40 -0.11% at 24,211, FTSE 100 -0.30% at 9,425, CAC 40 +1.99% at 8,077, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 41,907, IBEX 35 -0.10% at 15,570, PSI +0.29% at 8,252, SMI +0.54% at 12,502, AEX +0.61% at 955.
EARNINGS:
- Bank of America (BAC): EPS, revenue & NII beat; Better than expected next quarter NII view.
- Morgan Stanley (MS): Top & bottom line impressed
- ASML (ASML): Orders beat with strong next quarter guidance
- Progressive (PGR): EPS missed expectations.
- Dollar Tree (DLTR): 2026 EPS growth expectations topped expectations.
- Synchrony Financial (SYF): Profit surpassed Wall St. expected.
- Citizens Financial Group (CFG): EPS & revenue topped.
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT): Slight revenue miss
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic has overhauled its smallest AI model, Haiku, as Cos. increasingly opt for AI systems that are almost as capable as the most advanced tools – but come at a much cheaper cost.
- Apple (AAPL) pledges to boost China cooperation
- Santa Barbara Superior Court’s tentative ruling indicated that it will deny Sable Offshore (SOC) claims against the Coastal Commission
- NVIDIA (NVDA) upgraded at HSBC to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.
- BlackRock (BLK) and NVIDIA (NVDA) strike USD 40bln takeover of one of the world’s largest data centre operators.
- Amazon (AMZN) plans to cut 15% of HR staff as it seeks to reduce costs & invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
FX
The Dollar was lower on Wednesday and continued to be weighed on by jitters surrounding US/China relations and a follow-through from the dovish-leaning Powell on Tuesday. Both Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR’s Greer spoke heavily on China, with the former noting that if China wants to be an unreliable partner of the world, the US will need to decouple, but echoed that the US does not want to decouple; it wants to de-risk. The NY Fed Manufacturing was largely impressive as the headline smashed expectations, with new orders, employment, and six-month ahead indices impressing, although prices did rise. Beige Book noted employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labour was generally muted across Districts and sectors. Note, the Beige Book may get more attention given the lack of Government data due to the shutdown. Lastly, Miran spoke extensively, but reiterated his known dovish views, albeit suggested the Fed do not need to move in larger than 50bps increments. DXY traded between 98.653-99.077.
G10 FX was largely firmer against the Greenback, with only CAD seeing losses. All in all, it was a choppy day in the FX space with little fresh headline newsflow. JPY traded between 150.91-151.87 as LDP leader Takaichi asked Innovation Party leaders for their support in a premiership vote and coalition; talks will start from Thursday. For the Pound, and ahead of the November 26th budget, the Guardian reported that Chancellor Reeves said higher taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story”. Cable chopped from 1.3316-1.3403.
Antipodeans were both on the front foot, with the Aussie outperforming its counterpart in the wake of a strong Yuan fix by the PBoC and hawkish comments from RBA’s Hunter, who said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3. She also noted that the labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed. AUD/USD traded between a range of 0.6483-6523 and NZD/USD 0.5706-31. RBA’s Bullock and Kent expected to speak later, with Australian employment in the early hours.
EMFX almost exclusively gained vs. the Dollar on account of the aforementioned weakness. On data, Brazilian retail sales Y/Y slightly topped expectations, with the M/M print in line, while South African retail sales massively disappointed. On central bank speak, for the MXN, Banxico Deputy Governor Heath advocated caution in interest rate cuts, and said Banxico will be in the neutral zone if rates are cut 25bps in November and December. Meanwhile, for the PLN, two NBP policymakers urged more caution on further monetary easing due to inflation risks, signalling that last week’s interest-rate cut may be followed by a pause in November.
USA DATA RELEASES FOR TODAY
the Trump effect: New York factory activity surged in October;
New York Factory Activity Surged In October, Jobs & Orders Jump
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 08:44 AM
Amid the desert of macro data due to the shutdown, traders are reaching for anything to get a sense of the US economy and this morning’s Empire State Fed Manufacturing Survey offers hope for the future.
Specifically, the New York state factory activity unexpectedly expanded and the outlook climbed to the highest since the start of the year despite lingering price pressures.
October general business conditions index increased 19.4 points to 10.7 (its 3rd increase in the last 4 months) as orders and shipments picked up, and a gauge of the outlook over the next six months more than doubled to 30.3, reflecting greater optimism about orders and shipments.
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, the report showed a gauge of prices paid for materials rose, while a measure of prices received by state manufacturers increased to a six-month high. Additionally, there was growth in orders and shipments and a gauge of factory employment showed the fastest expansion in three months.
Source: Bloomberg
“Optimism about the outlook improved noticeably,” said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
US Equities Surge After Bessent, Greer Suggest Hope For De-Escalation With China
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 10:15 AM
US equity markets are surging again this morning following comments by Treasury Secretary Bessent (and USTR Greer) that appeared to suggest the possibility of a tariff truce with China.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent condemned China’s decision last week to step up curbs on its exports of rare-earth metals, calling the actions part of a broader plan by Beijing to control the world’s supply chains.
“China’s announcement is nothing more than a global supply chain power grab,” Greer said.
“This move is not proportional retaliation. It is an exercise in economic coercion on every country in the world.”
So that was Bad Cop.
And then Bessent played Good Cop…
But while Bessent said China’s “highly provocative move” comes after the U.S. has made significant efforts to de-escalate tensions, he said that the U.S. would rather not take action against Beijing.
“I believe China is open to discussion, and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated ultimately.
We are confident in the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.
We’ve had substantial communication with the Chinese over the past few days, and we believe that there will be more forthcoming this week,” Bessent said.
It is possible that “we could go to a longer roll in return for a delay” on rare earths export controls, Bessent said when asked if US would delay implementation of additional 100% tariffs on China.
“All that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks” before Chinese and US leaders meet in South Korea, he says.
None of that sounded particularly new or different to us, but no matter the confusion, the market ran with it…
But US-listed rare earth stocks tumbled on the possible delay: Critical Metals -20.5%, USA Rare Earth -13.6%, MP Materials -7.3%, Ramaco Resources -9.5%
Will the market’s strength prompt a response from Trump, using that hubris to take another shot at Beijing?
END
(Peter Reagan)
The Demographic Time-Bomb Threatening Your Retirement
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Peter Reagan,
America’s aging population, combined with shrinking birthrates and falling immigration, mean fewer workers fund Social Security. Here’s how this demographic reversal could trigger a retirement meltdown…
Retirement: That dream of living comfortably, traveling where you want, spending time with who you want when you want, enjoying good health, and getting to play like teenagers again during your golden years.
For many people, especially as they’re (we’re?) getting older, a comfortable retirement has become more of the American dream than the traditional American dream of owning your own home in a nice neighborhood with your late model car in the driveway.
Like most things in life that are worth having, though, a comfortable retirement requires forethought and planning, and the start of that planning is to notice…
What is going on with Social Security right now?
For most Americans, any hope of a retirement is completely dependent on Social Security. And, as you probably know, Social Security, as a program, has been struggling for a while now. Investopedia tells us the latest: Full benefits currently projected to end in 2034.
Now, you might be thinking, “Hey, I’m frugal. I can comfortably live with a 19% decrease in what I receive in retirement,” but don’t get too excited, yet.
This estimate from the Social Security Administration (SSA) is, in some ways, a best case scenario.
Why do I say that?
It’s simple, really. To explain that, it’s important to first understand how Social Security works.
Social Security is not “your money”
Many people have the misconception that Social Security is kind of like a giant savings account that we’re all forced to pay into – but that we’ll receive back when we eventually retire.
Except that Social Security has never worked like that.
To make a long story short, via Dave Ramsey:
- “Your” contributions go into the same pot as “my” contributions
- The SSA uses that fund to pay benefits today
- …and, if there’s any left, it goes into the Social Security Trust Fund
There’s no account in anyone’s name. Like a business, the SSA uses its revenue (from our taxes) to pay its obligations to beneficiaries. (That’s the way that it’s worked from the beginning.)
So long as revenues exceed obligations, no worries. But when they don’t? This isn’t speculation, by the way – since 2021, the SSA has been running in the red every year. Paying out more than it collects.
That’s a cause for alarm.
The closer we look, the scarier it gets
So, with current Social Security costs being paid by current worker contributions, the easy fix for the revenue shortfall? More workers. Nobody wants to raise taxes – we just need more people gainfully employed to contribute to the system.
Right?
Sure, that could work, but where are they going to come from?
According to the Census Bureau, the share of childless women is rising dramatically – especially among women aged 20-35.
Now, of course, that, in and of itself, doesn’t cause an immediate problem. Starting a family is a personal decision and responsible people have to do a lot of planning before making this choice.
But fewer children means fewer grow up to be productive citizens – fewer workers paying their contributions to keep the SSA afloat. This is part of a larger demographic challenge, as Forbes recently reported:
Economists have warned that a declining birth rate, and aging population, could spell disaster for the nation’s Social Security program – without enough young, working people to counterbalance the number of Social Security dependents, the existing system isn’t sustainable.
Population growth doesn’t only come from newborns, though. Historically, immigration has been a major source of new workers. Today?
Billal Rahman and Dan Gooding with Newsweek tell us that’s no longer the case:
After more than half a century of steady growth, the United States is experiencing its first decline in immigrant population since the 1960s…
In January 2025, a record 53.3 million immigrants lived in the country, accounting for 15.8 percent of the population. But by June, departures and deportations outpaced new arrivals, reducing the immigrant population to 51.9 million, or 15.4 percent of all U.S. residents.
Errors in the data? Sorry, Rahman and Gooding address that, too. Regardless of how we look at it, our population is declining.
And the dwindling number of workers, compared to how many people are receiving Social Security benefits, is a real issue.
Worse, these trends are unlikely to change direction.
So, what is the solution?
Realistically, there are three solutions.
The first solution is to increase the number of workers paying into the system. With declining birthrates, the only way that can happen is for older Americans to delay retirement even further and/or for more immigrants to come into the country to work to pay into the system.
Neither of those ways to prop up the number of workers seems likely to happen anytime soon.
Which leads us to the second “solution,” which isn’t really a solution: increased government borrowing to pay Social Security benefits.
Of course, as we saw during the pandemic panic, massive government borrowing to pay benefits (and make no mistake, this would be massive borrowing, possibly on a scale that we’ve never seen before) causes ugly inflation.
So, in this scenario, the federal government could pay out the Social Security checks at the “full” amount, but the dollar would be devalued through inflation which would have the effect of that “full” payout amount to each Social Security recipient not going nearly as far at the grocery store.
I think that we can agree that would be a disaster.
The third solution? Take your retirement into your own hands and build a hedge both against declining Social Security payouts and against inflation by diversifying into inflation-resistant stores of wealth that hold their value regardless of what is going on in politics or the economy.
end
BOSTON
All Hell Broke Out In Boston As Police Cruiser Torched In ‘Premeditated’ Attack On Cops: Union Chief
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 11:25 PM
The president of Boston’s Police Patrolmen’s Association has responded after a violent mob of over 100 people unleashed chaos in Boston’s streets, torching a police cruiser and pelting officers with fireworks, cones, and poles in what witnesses called a “riot-like” assault on law enforcement.
The wild attack, which unfolded in the early hours of October 5, was described as a deliberate and “hell-bent” targeting of police, according to Larry Calderone, president of the Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association, in an interview with Fox News.
“They came with a plan to attack officers, and they executed it,” Calderone said, slamming the mob’s actions as “absolutely unacceptable.”
The mayhem began just after 2 a.m. when police responded to reports of illegal street racing, only to be met with an all-out assault. One cruiser was set ablaze and left in ruins, requiring a tow from the scene.
The rampaging group didn’t stop there, moving through four Boston communities and growing more aggressive at each stop before converging in the city’s South End. “This was premeditated,” Calderone warned. “If you’re coming to Boston to terrorize our city or assault our officers, you’re not welcome here.”
Simran Nalhatra, a witness to the chaos, told Boston 25News, that “It was like a riot.”
“We saw someone get arrested, and we looked to our right, and there was this cop car on fire,” Nalhatra said. “It was really scary. I was like, ‘I don’t know why it was so loud,’ and everyone’s screaming, and it went on for an hour or two.”
Calderone told Fox News that this wasn’t just reckless street racing, but was a direct and dangerous attack on police.
“Spinning tires is one thing. Assaulting officers and endangering the public is something we will never tolerate,” the law enforcement official said.
Shockingly, only two arrests were made: Julian Bowers, 18, of Cumberland, Rhode Island, and William Cantwell, 19, of Warwick, Rhode Island.
Both face serious charges, including assault and battery on a police officer and malicious destruction of property. Bowers allegedly hurled objects at officers, while Cantwell reportedly smashed a cruiser with a pole. In a stunning courtroom twist, the judge set bail at just $500 for Bowers and $1,000 for Cantwell. To add insult to injury, the suspects were seen fist-bumping after the low bail was announced.
Calderone called the incident unprecedented, saying it’s been over a year since Boston saw a street takeover of this magnitude. “This level of violence against our officers is a big deal,” he said. “It should never happen, and we won’t stand for it.”
Suffolk County District Attorney Kevin Hayden also condemned the chaos, saying, “dangerous, intolerable assaults on our police officers and our neighborhoods.”
“We and our law enforcement partners will do all we can to identify and hold accountable anyone involved. No one should think they can jeopardize public safety in such a brazen manner without consequences,” Hayden added.
END
LOS ANGELES
LA County Declares State Of Emergency Over ICE Raids; Will Pay Rent & Provide Legal Aid
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Los Angeles County has declared a state of emergency over ongoing ICE raids – and will provide rent relief for tenants who have ‘fallen behind as a result’ of the enforcement actions targeting people living in the United States illegally.
The declaration – introduced by County Supervisors Lindsey P. Horvath and Janice Hahn, passed by as 4-1 vote, with Supervisor Kathryn Barger opposing. In addition to rent relief, it will also use taxpayer funds for legal aid and other services, ABC News reports.
The Tuesday vote allows county supervisors to mobilize resources, and request state and federal financial assistance ‘to respond to the impacts of the raids and expedite contracting to address the crisis’ – which we’re sure will be handled as ‘carefully’ as Palisades fire aid. One can’t help but wonder if the entire point of the declaration is to squander taxpayer funds while delegitimizing the Trump administration’s deportation efforts in the court of public opinion.
“What’s happening in our communities is an emergency – and Los Angeles County is treating it like one,” Horvath said in a press release. “Declaring a Local Emergency ensures that the full weight of County government is aligned to support our immigrant communities who are being targeted by federal actions.”
ICE began raiding parts of Los Angeles in June with the assistance of 700 active-duty marines, prompting widespread demonstrations.
“For months, families have lived under threat and workers have been taken from job sites,” Horvath continued. “This proclamation is about action and speed — it allows us to move faster, coordinate better, and use every tool available to protect and stabilize our communities. We will continue to stand with our immigrant neighbors – today, and for as long as it takes.“
The emergency declaration will remain in effect until the board terminates it.
END
CHARLEROIS PENNSYLVANIA
Brink Of A “Humanitarian Disaster”: 800 Migrant Families Set To Be Stranded In Pennsylvania Town Amid Factory Closure
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 10:45 AM
Before corporate media ever descended on the small Appalachia town of Charleroi, Pennsylvania, ZeroHedge had boots on the ground in the late summer of 2024, uncovering a network of labor mules, migrant workers (both legal and illegal), and a web of corruption and exploitation of poor migrants enabled by the Biden-Harris regime’s open-border and lax immigration policies to replace native workers.
Many of these migrants were employed by a meatpacking plant known as Fourth Street Barbecue, also operating under the name Fourth Street Foods. They displaced native-born workers, drained local resources, and wired their paychecks overseas to third-world countries. The result: another small town gutted in real time by globalist policies for short-term profits.
For the mainstream, Charleroi hit the radar in late September 2024, when President Trump warned that the small Pennsylvania town had been swamped by Haitians, with some reports suggesting the population was more than 50% Haitian, many of whom were employed at local factories, including the meatpacking plant.
Last fall, at a Trump rally, a trucker from Charleroi warned the immigration policies the Biden-Harris regime pushed were “nation-killing”…
Now, the consequences of open-border policies and lax immigration policies that enabled migrants to be funneled into the small town could be set to unleash what some folks at the local level are calling a “humanitarian disaster” in the making. This is because Fourth Street Barbecue is planning to shut down its plants at the end of the month after defaulting on more than $80 million in loans, according to local media outlet WTAE.
The plant’s closure means that most of its workers, Haitian migrants under Temporary Protected Status (TPS), will soon be jobless and, once their TPS protections expire, reclassified as illegal. Imagine that – half a town full of illegals.
END
this is awful: Trump should bomb Mexico with the cartels
(zerohedge)
Mexican Cartels Placing Bounties On Federal Agents, DHS Says
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 02:30 PM
Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said on Oct. 14 that it has obtained “credible intelligence” that cartels in Mexico have placed bounties on U.S. law enforcement officers and officials.
Mexican cartels—which have used Chicago, along with other major U.S. cities such as Los Angeles, New York, and Atlanta, as drug distribution hubs for years—are now being confronted with targeted law enforcement operations and have put out calls to sympathetic domestic groups for acts of violence and intimidation against authorities in the United States, the DHS said.
“These criminal networks have issued explicit instructions to U.S.-based sympathetics, including street gangs in Chicago, to monitor, harass, and assassinate federal agents,” the department said.
The department noted several federal investigations, which are still active, that have uncovered intelligence showing the cartels have advertised a tiered bounty system of renumeration for various actions escalating in violence and ambition.
Intelligence gathering or doxxing of federal agents, including taking photos and gathering information about their families, could receive a payout of $2,000, and kidnapping or non-lethal assaults on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) or Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents could see up to $10,000 payment.
The assassination of high-ranking U.S. officials could see payments of up to $50,000, the DHS said.
The investigations also uncovered that criminal groups, including members of Chicago’s street gangs with ties to the Latin Kings, have developed networks of armed rooftop “spotters” who track ICE and CBP officers and communicate their coordinates.
“This surveillance has enabled ambushes and disruptions during routine enforcement actions, including recent raids under Operation Midway Blitz,” the DHS said.
Led by ICE, “Operation Midway Blitz” was launched in early September 2025 in Chicago and the surrounding areas under the ICE Chicago field office, including Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky, and Kansas, to remove illegal immigrants and enforce immigration law.
The intelligence comes as federal and state authorities are at loggerheads over how to approach law enforcement in the state.
Federal agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection walk north on North Clark Street in the River North neighborhood in Chicago on Sept. 28, 2025. Ashlee Rezin/Chicago Sun-Times via AP
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson have criticized the Trump administration for seeking to send in the National Guard to protect ICE agents and facilities from a rebellion. Pritzker says the city and its residents are safe and there is no evidence of a rebellion, only constitutionally protected protests in front of ICE facilities.
Pritzker said on Oct. 5 that the ICE operations were creating a “war zone” and leaving ordinary residents terrorised. He said that agents were going after a few gang members, but that in at least one of the raids, elderly people and children were held for a few hours.
“If they’re not going to focus on the worst of the worst, which is what the president said they were going to do, they need to get the heck out,” he told CNN’s State of the Union.
President Donald Trump called for Brandon and Pritzker to be jailed for allegedly failing to protect ICE officers in Chicago. Pritzker responded by saying that the 25th Amendment should be invoked to remove Trump from office.
Brandon, on Oct. 6, signed an executive order prohibiting federal immigration agents from using city-owned property during their law enforcement operations.
“We will not tolerate ICE agents violating our residents’ constitutional rights nor will we allow the federal government to disregard our local authority. ICE agents are detaining elected officials, tear-gassing protestors, children, and Chicago police officers, and abusing Chicago residents. We will not stand for that in our city,” he said in a statement.
Support From Antifa
The DHS also laid blame on Antifa for aiding and abetting these criminal groups by organizing protests to block federal operations in Portland and Chicago. This has shielded cartel-linked individuals from deportation, the DHS said.
The department urged state and local leaders to support the federal law enforcement efforts and “cease policies that embolden criminals.”
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem speaks with a reporter on her plane while in the air en route from Quito, Ecuador, to Joint Base Andrews, Md., on July 31, 2025. Alex Brandon/AP Photo
“These criminal networks are not just resisting the rule of law, they are waging an organized campaign of terror against the brave men and women who protect our borders and communities,” Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said.
“Our agents are facing ambushes, drone surveillance, and death threats, all because they dare to enforce the laws passed by Congress. We will not back down from these threats, and every criminal, terrorist, and illegal alien will face American justice.”
The department said members of the public can report suspicious activities, such as rooftop surveillance or organized protests blocking federal operations, to the DHS Tip Line at 1-866-DHS-2-ICE or via the ICE website.
end
U.S. Soybean Exports Show Signs Of Recovery – Even As China Pivots Elsewhere
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 02:10 PM
Soybean farmers across the U.S. Midwest have found themselves caught in the middle of an expanding trade war storm between President Trump and Beijing.
Overnight, Trump threatened to halt trade in cooking oil with China, warning of an “Economically Hostile Act” that he said is deliberately “causing difficulty for our soybean farmers.” The tensions follow reports from weeks earlier showing that China had abandoned U.S. suppliers in favor of growers in Brazil and Argentina.
UBS analyst Simon Penn noted to clients earlier:
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that China’s decision to stop importing U.S. soybean was an “Economically Hostile Act”. He said he was prepared to retaliate by refusing to allow the U.S. to import Chinese cooking oil. Note – Trump is referring to used cooking oil. China exports it to the U.S., who in turn, turn it into bio-fuel. But cooking oil is a side-show relative to soybean. U.S. cooking oil imports from China were a record $1.2 bn last year; China soybean purchases from the U.S. were worth $12.6 bn.
The last several days have been a rollercoaster of headlines from the Trump administration, sparking turmoil across global markets, especially at the end of last week when Trump threatened China with 100% tariffs in response to Beijing imposing strict export controls on rare earth minerals.
By the start of this week, rhetoric from the White House was dialed back, and by Wednesday morning…
With soybeans at the center of the trade spat, the latest trade data of U.S. soybean exports shows somewhat of a surprising trend: Although the ongoing government shutdown has paused many of the USDA’s reports, the agency managed to release its weekly export inspections one day late due to Monday’s holiday, which shows U.S. exports of soybeans hit their highest levels since Feburary.
U.S. exports shipped 994,000 tons of soybeans last week, with major destinations including Bangladesh, Italy, Spain, and South Korea. This comes as the top buyer, China, remained absent from the market.
Even with soybean purchases now trending in the right direction, top buyer China remains removed, and this is due to Beijing having leverage over Trump in upcoming trade talks. As a result, the Trump admin has proposed a $14 billion farm bailout using tariff funds collected to cushion farmers.
The game between Trump and Xi is all about leverage. Both leaders are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea in late October. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Tuesday the meeting was still on despite trade tensions.
end
Redistricting Chaos Takes Center Stage At Supremes; Ketanji Compares Race To Being Disabled
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 12:45 PM
While House lawmakers remain largely absent from Washington’s high-stakes government-funding fight, the real political action this week is happening in statehouses and courtrooms across the country – where the battle over congressional maps is reshaping the 2026 midterm landscape in real time.
The redistricting wars have become the defining story of the next election cycle. From Springfield to Sacramento to Raleigh, both parties are scrambling to maximize their advantage, testing the limits of state and federal law – and patience – in the process.
The Supreme Court Steps In
All eyes are on the Supreme Court today as justices hear Louisiana v. Callais for the second time, a case that could determine the future of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
The challenge centers on Louisiana’s 2024 decision to add a second black-majority district after courts found its previous map violated the Voting Rights Act. White voters sued, claiming that the new map itself was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Depending on how broadly the Court rules, as many as ten Democratic-held seats in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina could be on the chopping block. A broad ruling could effectively gut Section 2 of the VRA, limiting the use of race in drawing districts nationwide and reshaping how Congress represents minority voters for decades to come.
Republicans claim that the second black-majority district goes too far – turning race into the predominant factor in drawing lines and thus violating the Constitution’s equal protection clause – and that redistricting should be ‘race-neutral,’ and that continued reliance on racial targets entrenches identity politics and undermines a “colorblind” constitution. Many GOP officials see Callais as a chance to limit or even dismantle Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which they believe has outlived its original purpose and now forces racial engineering in maps.
Democrats are defending the new Louisiana map – calling it a remedy to decades of racial vote dilution in the South.They argue that Section 2 remains an important way to ensure black and minority voters can elect candidates of their choice, and that if the Supreme Court sides with the Republican view, it could reduce minority representation in Congress.
To wit, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson just compared being a minority to being disabled.
‘The idea in section two is that we are responding to current day manifestations of past and present decisions that disadvantage minorities and make it so that they don’t have equal access to the voting system, right, they’re disabled…‘
The Congressional Black Caucus plans a press conference later today to underscore what members call an “existential test” for minority voting power. Still, timing may temper the impact – even a sweeping decision likely won’t come early enough to affect 2026 maps.
Illinois: Jeffries’ High-Stakes Power Play
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is pressing Illinois Democrats to approve a new congressional map that would draw out GOP Rep. Mary Miller and add a Democratic seat.
Gov. JB Pritzker is on board, but not everyone in the delegation is thrilled. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-IL) summed up the anxiety: “I love the district that I serve in, and I don’t want to see my district change.”
With the filing deadline just weeks away on Nov. 3, lawmakers are running out of time – and risk alienating incumbents in the process. Illinois is already one of the most aggressively gerrymandered states in the country, and spreading blue votes too thin could backfire.
California: $40 Million and Counting
In California, Democrats are going all-in on Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ballot initiative to pause redistricting – and, effectively, lock in a map that could yield up to five new Democratic seats.
Democrats have pumped $40 million into TV ads supporting the measure, while Republicans have gone dark on air. If Prop 50 passes, it could help offset GOP gains from Texas’s new map – a key piece of Democrats’ national midterm calculus.
North Carolina: A Familiar Story
North Carolina Republicans announced plans Monday to redraw their map – again – in a move aimed at eliminating one Democratic seat. After a decade of near-constant redistricting, the state’s congressional map could shift from 10–4 to 11–3 or even 12–2 in favor of the GOP. Sources say Rep. Don Davis (D) is the likely target.
Given the state’s history of litigation, another round of lawsuits is almost guaranteed before ballots are printed.
Indiana: JD Vance and the Hoosier Hustle
Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Indiana on Friday has injected new energy into GOP redistricting plans. Gov. Mike Braun is considering calling a special legislative session to push through a map that could add two Republican seats, according to insiders.
The White House has reportedly been closely involved – a sign of how strategically the administration views this state. But Braun faces resistance from some state senators, and he’ll need to act quickly if he wants a new map in place by November.
Maryland: The 8–0 Question
In deep-blue Maryland, Democrats are debating whether to erase the state’s lone Republican seat, currently held by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris.
Gov. Wes Moore and House Speaker Adrienne Jones are open to the idea, but Senate President Bill Ferguson remains skeptical. Without a special session, the issue will have to wait until the legislature reconvenes in January – a delay that could doom the effort.
An 8–0 map might look good on paper, but Democrats risk sparking another round of lawsuits and public backlash.
Utah: Republicans Play Defense
In Utah, the GOP is fighting to block a court-ordered redraw that could give Democrats a rare foothold. Republican leaders are racing to gather tens of thousands of signatures by mid-November to place their preferred map on the ballot and delay implementation.
If successful, the existing map – drawn by the Republican legislature – would remain in place through 2026, blunting what could have been a Democratic breakthrough.
The Big Picture
The redistricting free-for-all underscores how much of modern politics is shaped not by campaigns or policy, but by lines on a map. With the Supreme Court poised to weigh in and multiple states sprinting to finalize new boundaries, control of the next Congress may be decided long before a single vote is cast.
As Congress spins its wheels in Washington, the real battle for power – and democracy’s balance – is being fought in statehouses and courtrooms nationwide.
END
On The Verge Of A Funding Crisis: Fed’s Emergency Liquidity Facility Unexpectedly Soars Most Since Covid
Harvey:
The headline from zero hedge refers to a potential banking crisis where financial institutions are increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facilities for liquidity, a situation that has not been seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. This increased usage suggests a funding strain, as banks are borrowing to meet immediate cash needs or more severe liquidity pressures.
- Increased borrowing: Financial institutions are borrowing more money from the Federal Reserve’s “emergency liquidity facility,” which is designed to provide funds when a bank faces a sudden shortage of cash.
- Timing: The surge in borrowing is the largest since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a period of extreme financial market stress.
- Indication of stress: This trend is a signal that the banking system may be under strain, and some institutions are having trouble obtaining funds from other sources.
- Purpose of the facility: The facility acts as a backstop to ensure banks have enough liquidity to manage payments and respond to unexpected funding needs.
- Severity: The high level of use suggests a funding crisis is imminent or already underway.
from AI
News about the Federal Reserve’s emergency liquidity facility soaring since the COVID pandemic refers to increased borrowing from the Fed’s standing facilities, specifically the discount window and Standing Repo Facility (SRF). This surge, which has been monitored throughout 2025, is primarily driven by the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, which has drained liquidity from the financial system.
The headline’s implication of an impending “funding crisis” echoes market anxieties, but the rise in borrowing is occurring under different circumstances than the panic seen in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reasons for the liquidity facility increase
Quantitative tightening
- Balance sheet reduction: Since mid-2022, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet in a process called quantitative tightening (QT). The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s asset holdings drains reserves and overall liquidity from the banking system.
- Signaled end to QT: In an October 2025 speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank may soon end its QT program. He pointed to tightening liquidity conditions and noted the Fed’s cautious approach to avoid the money market strains seen in 2019.
Shift from a temporary program
- End of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): The BTFP was a temporary emergency facility created in March 2023 to provide liquidity to banks after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Its expiration in March 2024 has led to more reliance on other Fed facilities, like the discount window.
- Pricing advantage: Unlike the discount window, the BTFP allowed banks to borrow against collateral at its par value, which became highly favorable for banks holding assets that had declined in market value. With the BTFP gone, some banks have shifted to using standing facilities.
Higher cost of alternative funding
- Expensive alternatives: As liquidity in the market has been reduced, the cost of borrowing in the private market has increased. As a result, the Fed’s discount window has become a more appealing, cheaper option for some institutions.
Increased proactive usage
- Contingency planning: Banks are increasingly using the Fed’s standing facilities for contingency planning and to address temporary funding shortfalls. This increased proactive engagement is different from the stigma-driven usage that was seen before.
- Pre-pledged collateral: Research shows that banks with pre-pledged collateral are more likely to use the discount window during sudden liquidity shocks. This is an increasingly common practice that makes borrowing faster and easier.
Why this is different from COVID and 2008
The recent surge in borrowing, while noteworthy, does not indicate a panic on the scale of past crises.
- COVID-19 market panic: In March 2020, financial markets experienced a severe “dash for cash” where institutions hoarded cash and credit markets froze. The Fed responded with a broad and unprecedented range of emergency lending programs to unfreeze markets.
- 2008 financial crisis: The 2007–09 crisis was marked by extreme financial distress, triggering the Fed to implement emergency lending facilities with Treasury approval. The Dodd-Frank Act later restricted this authority.
- Current market environment: Today’s liquidity strains are a byproduct of the Fed’s deliberate unwinding of quantitative easing. The Fed continues to monitor the markets and adjust its approach to manage the transition and ensure financial stability.
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 15, 2025 Issue 7598 | Independent View of the News |
| China Hits Back at US on Shipping with Hanwha (So Korean shipper) Curbs, Probe – BBG 8:05 ET The sanctions prohibit people or organizations in China from transacting with US units of Hanwha… China… threatened further retaliatory measured on the industry, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat moves as Beijing and Washington jockey for leverage before expected trade talks… China Imposes Shipping Sanctions – BBG 7:14 ET As soon as Trump shows weakness with one of his patented TACOs, China, to use DJT’s vernacular, ‘slongs’ him. And this is despite Trump’s relentlessly professed ‘great relationship with Xi.’ It appears to the untrained diplomatic eye, that China, and perhaps Trump’s good friend Xi, believe that stock market tumbles terrify DJT. So, each time DJT does his tough guy act, China ignores it because like night follows day, a stock market tumble on Trump’s tough guy act is followed by a TACO. The White House: President Donald J. Trump Secures a Historic Trade Win for the United States May 12, 2025 In reaching an agreement, the United States and China will each lower tariffs by 115% while retaining an additional 10% tariff. Other U.S. measures will remain in place. Both sides will take these actions by May 14, 2025. This trade deal is a win for the United States, demonstrating President Trump’s unparalleled expertise in securing deals that benefit the American people… (What happened to this great trade deal?) https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-a-historic-trade-win-for-the-united-states/ Bessent tells the FT that struggling China wants ‘to pull everybody else down with them’ “They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they’re exacerbating their standing in the world,” Bessent told the FT. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/bessent-china-rare-earths.html US Trade Representative Greer: Think We’ll Be Able to ‘Work Through It’ with China 11:38 ET Greer (speaking on CNBC): 100% China Tariff Depends on What Chinese Do – 11:39 ET Greer: 100% US tariffs on China could come sooner. 11:40 ET Greer on CNBC: We Always Watch the Stock Market, Bond Markets – 11:43 ET Greer: Want to Make Sure Market Responds to Appropriate Info (WHAT?) – BBG 11:43 ET Trump, Xi Still Scheduled to Meet, US Trade Representative Greer Says – 11:49 ET We’d like some enterprising journalist to ask Greer and the WH to elaborate on what ‘info’ is appropriate for a market response. Citi reports a rise in earnings with every business posting record third-quarter revenue Adjusted earnings per share: $2.24 vs. $1.90 expected Revenue: $22.09 billion versus $21.09 billion expected… Citi’s net income rose 15% to $3.8 billion from a year earlier, while revenues were up 9% as every business posted record numbers. Services business enjoyed its best quarter ever with revenues up 7%. Banking revenues surged 34%, while the markets segment delivered its best third quarter with revenues jumping 15%… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/citigroup-earnings-q3-2025.html JPMorgan Chase tops estimates as trading revenue hits a record of nearly $9 billion Earnings per share: $5.07 vs. expected $4.84, according to LSEG Revenue: $47.12 billion vs. expected $45.4 billion, according to LSEG… JPMorgan’s provision for credit losses rose 9% to $3.4 billion, exceeding the $3.08 billion estimate, indicating that the firm is preparing for higher loan defaults down the road… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-q3-2025.html Jamie Dimon says auto company bankruptcies reveal ‘early signs’ of excess in corporate lending https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/jamie-dimon-auto-bankruptcies-lending-excess.html Wells Fargo tops profit estimates, raises return target after asset cap lifted Net income was $5.59 billion, or $1.66 per share… compares with $5.11 billion, or $1.42 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected a profit of $1.55 per share… The bank set aside $681 million as provision for credit losses in the quarter, compared with $1.07 billion a year earlier… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/wells-fargo-earnings-q3-2025.html Goldman Sachs beats estimates on better-than-expected investment banking, bond trading Earnings per share: $12.25 vs. $11 expected, according to LSEG Revenue: $15.18 billion vs. $14.1 billion expected, according to LSEG… Investment banking was the engine for Goldman’s beat this quarter, with fees jumping 42% to $2.66 billion, or roughly $500 million more than what analysts surveyed by StreetAccount had expected… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-q3-2025.html @KobeissiLetter: The Dow erases a 600-point loss and turns positive on the day as US Trade Rep. Greer says a meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi has been SCHEDULED. Q3 earning reporting season commenced yesterday; and banks reported great results. So, traders largely dismissed China’s shipping sanctions to play for the Earnings Season Rally. Plus, Powell was scheduled to speak at the NABE. Stocks typically rally into Fed Chair addresses on the hope of dovish remarks. Powell appeased the markets with very dovish remarks: ‘The Fed may end balance sheet runoff in coming months: “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.” More Powell: “Rising downside risks to employment have shifter our assessment of the balance of risks. As a result, we judged it appropriate to take another step to a more neutral stance at our September meeting;” and ‘labor market projections remain in a downward trajectory.’ Powell actually admitted that he and the Fed market tantrums! “Our thinking was informed by recent episodes in which signals about reducing the balance sheet had triggered significant tightening in financial conditions. We were thinking of events of December 2018, as well as the 2013 “taper tantrum.”… https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20251014a.htm Jerome also admitted that the Fed goofed on QE: “With the clarity of hindsight, we could have—and perhaps should have—stopped asset purchases sooner.” Powell’s excuse to halt QT: “Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates.” Fed’s Powell defends bond purchases amid Trump allies’ attacks – Axios 12:21 ET “It’s fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have change much since our September meeting.” That implies the Fed is on track to cut rates again when it meets in two weeks… https://www.axios.com/2025/10/14/trump-powell-fed-bonds Powell: Fed Would Lose Control of Rates if IOR Were Eliminated Zero Hedge: Translation: Banks need trillions in taxpayer subsidies indefinitely or they will all fail. @RealEJAntoni: So Jerome, you’re saying the Fed had no control over interest rates before it started paying hundreds of million of dollars daily to banks via interest on reserves? Almost a century of data says otherwise… Powell also said there are few good substitutes for government inflation stats. ESZs opened modestly lower on Monday night and traded flat until they jumped higher at 20:02 ET. ESZs hit 6718.50 at 20:30 ET and then commenced an intractable decline that ended at 9:45 ET with a daily low of 5793.50. Dip buyers aggressively bought the dip. Pro traders eagerly bought for the earnings reporting reason rally and great big-bank results. Then US Trade Rep Greer, genuflecting before the stock market, issued verbal intervention (see above). An hour or so later, the woefully inept Powell went dovish. Traders great and small got jiggy on stocks. Trump with a Biden-like whopper: I Like the Dollar, Very Strong on the Dollar – BBG 14:19 ET (Did someone warn DJT that precious metals are signaling and creating big-time trouble?) ESZs soared to a daily high of 6722.50 at 13:50 ET. The rally was abetted by this: Trump: Great Relationship with Xi, Sometimes Gets Testy (& kicks me in the groin) – BBG 14:31 ET Trump: Think Relationship with China Will Be Fine – BBG 14:32 ET (Despite repeated groin kicks!) ESZs then rolled over modestly and went inert. Why sell when Trump and his team have explicitly stated that they are beholden to the stock market and want stocks to respond to the proper info (AKA their BS)? Well Virginia, the dangerously mercurial Trump provided the reason to sell. Trump on Truth Social: “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farms, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China. 15:37 What the over/under in hours for Trump doing another TACO on China? ESZs fell to 6666.00 at 15:45 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6693.50 at 16:00 ET. Fangs, which usually rally sharply during earnings season, declined sharply due to the value rotation into the DJTA and DJIA. Nvidia, CrowdStrike, and Broadcom fell more than 4% at their lows. DOJ alleges State Dept employee removed classified docs, met with Chinese officials – The employee, Ashley Tellis, is also a contractor with the Office of Net Assessment at the Department of Defense https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/doj-says-state-department-employee-allegedly-removed-classified-docs-met-chinese Kremlin warns it ‘could end badly for everyone’ if US supplies Ukraine long-range missiles Medvedev asserted that ‘it’s impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kremlin-warns-could-end-badly-everyone-us-supplies-ukraine-long-range-missiles Putin’s hand puppet Medvedev, who cannot speak without Don Putin’s approval, is once again bad copping Trump. Don’t forget, Trump persistently claims he ‘has a good relationship with Putin.’ Trump: Putin Doesn’t Want to End War; Probably Still Have a Good Relationship with Putin Trump: Russian Economy Is Going to Collapse – BBG 14:34 ET Trump Says Spain Being Disrespectful to NATO – BBG 14:36 ET Trump Threatens Tariffs on Spain over NATO Spending – BBG 14:36 ET @GlobalMktObserv: Gold prices are experiencing a HISTORIC RUN: Gold prices have jumped 58% year-over-year marking the second-best run over the last 35 YEARS. This is only below the surge seen in 2006 at much lower prices. Gold has hit another all-time high of $4,190… https://t.co/p070eyRkIS Google has announced that it will invest $15 billion in India to build a giant data center and artificial intelligence base. https://t.co/jrIq9a63QB Positive aspects of previous session US stocks rallied after an early decline. The DJIA +202.88; DJTA +256.89 Negative aspects of previous session Gold rallied moderately even though silver declined sharply from a new all-time high USZs were flat most of the day. Fangs declined sharply despite the general equity market rally on valuation rotation. China is persistently aggressive and belligerent on trade issues. The dangerously mercurial Trump is irresponsibly whipsawing markets. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did Powell go fecklessly dovish because he fears something? How far with Team Trump bend over to appease China and prevent a stock tumble? Why were Fangs sold when normally they are aggressively bought for coming results? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6626.69 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6680.70; 6555.07 @xtrends: Seconds before his soybean tweet, large ES blocks were sold (Is inside info the ‘appropriate info’ Team Trump wants the market to respond to?) https://x.com/xtrends/status/1978193617345826858 Today – Though stocks are overbought on most time frames and are historically overvalued, it’s earnings season; Powell has turned recklessly dovish for some reason; and Team Trump explicitly proclaims that it wants stocks to bubble higher and will do whatever is necessary to keep the bubble going! So, traders great and small will buy dips and institutions will be reluctant to sell – for now! However, Trump Roulette is NOT a game for the faint of heart or the prudent to play! ESZs are +6.00; NQZs are +25.50; Dec AU is +23.40; and USZs are -1/32 at 21:05 ET. Expected earnings: PNC 4.02, BAC .95, MS 2.11, UAL 2.66, JBHT 1.46 Fed Speakers: Gov Miran 9:0 ET and 12:30 ET, Gov Waller 13:00 ET, KC Pres Schmid 14:30 ET Expected Economic data: Oct Empire Mfg. -1.8; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6544; 100-day MA: 6342; 150-day MA: 6086; 200-day MA: 6056 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,603; 100-day MA: 44,544; 150-day MA: 43,367; 200-day MA: 43,422 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6644.31 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6445.33 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6834.79 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 6695.52 triggers a buy signal @RapidResponse47: @POTUS on highly incompetent loser @GovPritzker: “I think he should BEG for help because he’s running a bad operation. He’s letting people be KILLED.” https://t.co/Kkd5lWIxHx Study does deep dive on if refs are favoring Chiefs in biggest games — here’s what researchers found – Research conducted recently by the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP), a public research university, suggests that what we are seeing on screen isn’t an anomaly or your imagination: The Chiefs are indeed receiving favorable whistles in their biggest games. In a dataset spanning more than 13,000 penalty calls from 2015 through 2023, researchers found that “postseason officiating has disproportionately favored the Mahomes-era Kansas City Chiefs… In playoff games, penalties against Kansas City opponents were 2.36 more yards than average. Flags were also 23 percent more likely to result in a first down in favor of the Chiefs. The study adds that subjective calls, such as roughing the passer and pass interference, occurred 28 percent more frequently. Sports Illustrated previously reported that Mahomes gets .412 roughing the passer penalties per postseason game, up significantly from the .12 league average… During the regular season, the pattern is reversed… https://nypost.com/2025/10/14/sports/study-does-deep-dive-on-if-refs-are-favoring-chiefs-in-biggest-games/ | |
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
State Department Revokes Visas Of 6 Foreigners Who Cheered Charlie Kirk’s Death
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
The State Department has revoked the visas of six foreigners after they publicly celebrated the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk.
“The United States has no obligation to host foreigners who wish death on Americans,” the State Department posted on X on Oct. 14.
“The State Department continues to identify visa holders who celebrated the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk.”
The names of those who lost their visas were withheld, but their redacted social media posts were published by the department.
They included a South African national who lost their visa after mocking Americans who grieved Kirk’s death, saying “they’re hurt that the racist rally ended in attempted martyrdom” and said Kirk wouldn’t be remembered as a hero.
Others whose visas were revoked included an Argentinian, a Mexican, a Brazilian, a German, and a Paraguayan.
“Aliens who take advantage of America’s hospitality while celebrating the assassination of our citizens will be removed,” the State Department posted.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced last month he planned to begin the revocation process.
“Visa revocations are under way,” he posted. “If you are here on a visa and cheering on the public assassination of a political figure, prepare to be deported.”
President Donald Trump holds the Presidential Medal of Freedom before presenting it to Erika Kirk as a posthumous honor to her late husband, Charlie Kirk, at the White House on Oct. 14, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Kirk was shot and killed on Sept. 10 while hosting a debate at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah.
His widow, Erika Kirk, accepted the Medal of Freedom at the White House for the Turning Point USA founder on Oct. 14. President Donald Trump, a friend of Kirk’s, awarded him the medal posthumously.
The foreign nationals were the latest people to face consequences for posting celebratory or hateful messages following Kirk’s assassination. Companies and school districts across the United States warned employees—from teachers to pilots—that if they posted comments cheering or mocking Kirk’s death they would be fired.
One of the most well-known people fired was MSNBC analyst Matthew Dowd who posted a comment the day after Kirk was fatally shot.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Sept. 13 multiple American Airlines pilots had been immediately grounded and removed from service. Delta Air Lines employees were suspended pending investigation.
U.S. Secret Service agent Anthony Pough was also placed on leave.
In California, 20 public school teachers faced disciplinary measures after posting social media messages about Kirk’s death.
END
WHAT A DOORKNOB!!
Federal Judge Orders ICE To Take Down Security Fence At Broadview, Illinois Facility
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 10:25 AM
An 8-foot security fence surrounding the Broadview, Illinois Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing facility has been removed at the order of a U.S. District Court judge.
Judge Lashonda Hunt ordered the removal of the security fence last Friday, claiming that the temporary fence was on municipal land without permission and allegedly violated local ordinances by blocking emergency vehicles.
Hunt had ruled that the fence violated safety code because the gate was 16 feet wide, rather than the 20-foot requirement adopted by the village under the International Fire Code.
The judge’s order stated: “DHS’s Beach Street gate creates a quasi-federal zone where the Village’s ability to respond to emergencies is hindered and only allows it to provide lifesaving services at the whims and fancies of the Federal Defendants.”
The timing of the removal of the fence has raised concerns that there will be one less barrier between ICE agents and protesters during this coming weekend’s large-scale “no kings day” protests scheduled across the nation.
ICE has appealed the judge’s decision, citing security concerns over the likelihood of widespread protests this weekend.
The fence was first put up in September, following violent clashes between protesters and ICE agents as well as the blocking of ICE vehicles and the slashing of tires.
Antifa activists tend to block the entrances and exits to ICE facilities, requiring officers to physically confront and arrested agitators in order to open a path for vehicles.
Contrary to the judge’s claim, the fence did not obstruct the passage of emergency vehicles like fire trucks and ambulances, which had their own separate access routes that were kept clear by the barrier.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began dismantling the fence just before the court’s midnight deadline last night.
Whether the removal of the security fence makes ICE agents easier targets for the planned “no kings day” unrest, remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is appealing another federal judge’s decision temporarily blocking it from sending National Guard troops to Chicago to assist federal officers, including ICE personnel, in addressing violent crime there.
* * * Last day discount
These countertop RO systems have been flying off the shelf, but we have to raise the price by EOD.
If you’re looking for a high-flow powerhouse, pick up one of these (includes 2-year filter supply).
END
Another Judge Hijacks Oval Office, Halts Federal Firings During Shutdown
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 03:25 PM
The pattern is clear;
Trump does: anything
Democrats: sue
Democrat judge: sides with fellow Democrats suing
Supreme Court, six months later: ‘What Trump did was fine’
And in today’s case:
Trump: Fires federal employees during shutdown
Democrats: sue
Democrat judge: Blocks path
The judge: Clinton-appointed San Francisco district judge Susan Yvonne Illston
Federal judge Susan Illston on Wednesday blocked the Trump administration from firing workers during the government shutdown – ruling that she believes the evidence would ultimately show that the firings were illegal and in excess of authority.
Federal agencies began issuing layoff notices on Friday aimed at reducing the size of the federal government and pressure Democratic lawmakers while the government shutdown continues.
According to Illston, the administration has been acting without thinking things through.
“It’s very much ready, fire, aim on most of these programs, and it has a human cost,” she said, adding “It’s a human cost that cannot be tolerated.”
In response to the layoffs, the American Federation of Government Employees and other federal labor unions filed suit, asking Illston for a temporary restraining order blocking the administration from issuing new layoff notices, calling the firings an abuse of power designed to punish workers and pressure Congress.
The administration has already taken the first steps toward dismissing approximately 4,000 workers.
Illston said she would detailer her ruling in writing later Wednesday.
Reminder:
* * * Be sure to check out
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
