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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,176.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/15/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/17/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 242
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 700
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 100
323 C HSBC 142
323 H HSBC 500
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 35
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 843
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 325
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 550
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 150 368
685 C RJ OBRIEN 3
700 C UBS SECURITIES LLC 48
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 18
880 H CITIGROUP 1741
905 C ADM 10 7
TOTAL: 2,891 2,891
MONTH TO DATE: 47,049
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 2881 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 288,100 OZ or 8.9671 TONNES
total notices so far: 47,049 contracts for 4,704,900 OR 146.342 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 64 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.320 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5834CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 29.170 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 29.265 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
31.375 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 58.780 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 29.265 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 31.375 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY’S RECORD SETTING MONSTER 9.564 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY 42.549 TONNES QUEUE JUMPING FOR OCT. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL SMALL TO FAIR
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 135.163 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1182 CONTRACTS OI TO 173,230 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A HUGE 675 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 675 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 675 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1504 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE HUGE 625 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1807 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.55 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.625 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.55 IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.02 POINTS OR 0.10%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 22.09 PTS OR 0.09%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 605.07 PTS OR 1,27% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.83%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1246// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1274/ Oil UP TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 62.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1246 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2754 CONTRACTS TO 485,753 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $41.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3480). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 6234 CONTRACTS (OR 19,39 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 11.353 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 5 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 5 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 5 OCCASIONS FOR 3650 CONTRACTS OR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN FINALLY OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCE ON 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 126.5 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6234 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1978 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN YESTERDAY DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD. WITH MUCH FAILURES.
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS CONTINUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCT 1 AND OCT 2 AND NOW OCT 9 THROUGH 10TH AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE ARE HAVING HUGE DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS IN OI. HOWEVER THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE/OCTOBER COMEX GOLD TOTALS WITH MASSIVE GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN OCTOBER AND THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING THAT FOLLOWED!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. (IS THE COMEX RUNNING OUT OF GOLD?)//TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES, THEN OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP, OCT 9 HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP, OCT 10 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 7.504 CONTRACTS(250,900 OZ//7.504 TONNES) AND THEN OCT 13: 4.3919 TONNES// AND THEN OCT 14 WITH A RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES AND THEN YESTERDAY’S MASSIVE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND FINALLY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP AT 8.326 TONNES //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 5 ISSUANCES IS 3650 CONTRACTS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 243 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 16 QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED YESTERDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 3,650 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 5 OCCASIONS FOR 365,000 OZ OR 11.353 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 5 OCCASIONS: 11.353 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT:
E) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
F) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
G) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
J) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
K) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
L) A HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
159.717 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 3480 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3480 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 3480 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3480 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON.
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCTO 10 AND THAT FAILED AND FROM THAT POINT GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1978 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 5 ISSUANCES FOR 11.383 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE THE GREEN LIGHT ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 8.326 TONNES, FOLLOWING YESTERDAY’S HUGE 6.469 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED TUESSDAY;S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS IN OCT OF 33.009 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $41.25./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 6234 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY OCT 7, WE WITNESSED FOR NO REASON A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION IN PRICE OF OUR GOLD EQUITY SHARES LIKE AGNICO EAGLE AND BARRICK GOLD /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS. THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER.
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 19.39 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 8.326 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK/5 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 159.717 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $41.25
WE HAD A HUGE 1547 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6234 CONTRACTS OR 623,400 0Z (19.39 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 16
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) Out of Asahi 56,256.867 oz ii) Out of HSBC 5638,123oz ( iii) Out of JPMorgan 75,232.9907 oz total withdrawal 137,127.897oz or 4.26 tonnes of gold// . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2881 notice(s) 288,100 OZ 8.9611 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 659 contracts 65900 OZ 2.049 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 47,049 notices 4,704,900oz 146.342 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
3 entries
i) Out of Asahi 56,256.867 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 5638,123oz (
iii) Out of JPMorgan 75,232.9907 oz
total withdrawal 137,127.897oz or 4.26 tonnes of gold//
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
customer withdrawal
ADJUSTMENTs 5
dealer to customer//ALL
i)Asahi 33,055.486 oz
ii) Brinks: 153,553.765 oz
iii) LOOMIS 44,798.819 oz
iv) Malca: 196;238oz
v) Manfra 25,447.718 oz
total adjustment dealer to customer 257,052,037 oz or,7.99 tonnes
volume at the comex: Wednesday: 327,800oz (HUGE)
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 3540 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 557 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2120 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 2080 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 267,700 OZ OR 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED YESTERDAY’S 6.469 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY’S HUGE 9.564 TONNES//QUEUE JUMP//(THAT QUEUE JUMP BECAME THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP IN COMEX HISTORY) . THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 148.364 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 11.353 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 6 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4073 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER GAINED 1942 CONTRACTS UP TO 32,279 CONTRACTS.
We had 2881 contracts filed for today representing 288100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 150 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2881 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 368 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (47,049oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 3540 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2881 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,769,900 OZ OR 148.364 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF 11.353 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (47,049 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (3540 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2881 x 100 oz) which equals 4,769,900 OZ OR 148.364 TONNES + 11.353 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 159.717 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 159.717 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
volume Wednesday confirmed 327,800 contracts huge
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,941,775.688 oz 60.39 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 39,148,090.820oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,001,276,701 or 653.22tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,146,814,116OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,905,950 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 592,83tonnes // (
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 13 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of Asahi 1,506,845,750oz ii) Out of CNT: 600,131.860 oz iv) Out of Delaware 579,995.175oz v) Out of Malca 328,048.770oz total withdrawal 3,015,021.055 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Into Delaware 6051.680 oz ii) Into JPMorgan 2,460,799.051 total deposit 2,466,850.731oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 64 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.320 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 19 contracts (0.095 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5834 Contracts (29.170 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 entries
i) Into Delaware 6051.680 oz
ii) Into JPMorgan 2,460,799.051
total deposit 2,466,850.731oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of Asahi 1,506,845,750oz
ii) Out of CNT: 600,131.860 oz
iv) Out of Delaware 579,995.175oz
v) Out of Malca 328,048.770oz
total withdrawal 3,015,021.055 oz
adjustments: 6
6 dealer to customer
a) Asahi 392,558.800oz
b) Brinks: 478,420.440oz
c)DelawareL 118,629,952
d) HSBC 30,137,680 oz
e) Loomis 40,110.010 oz
f) Stonex: 89,357.630 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 172.324 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 512.163 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 83 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 123 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 162 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 39 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.195 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 29.265 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG 0.19 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 31.345 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER LOST 16 CONTRACTS UP TO 2433
DECEMBER GAINED 173 CONTRACTS UP TO 126,863
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 64 or 0.320 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 134,846 immense++++//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5834 X5,000 oz = 29.170 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (83) AND the number of notices served upon today (64 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (5834) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(83) minus number of notices served upon today (64)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 29.265 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 31.375 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 31.375 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 172.324 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 208,485/512.163million. 40.62%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 6.30 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES//
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD UP $43.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 12.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.56 TONNES//FAIRY TALES
SEPT 2 WITH GOLD UP $79.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 9.74 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.68 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $33.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD UP $18.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.50 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 959.92 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 958.49 TONNES
AUGUST 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD UP $35.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 956.77 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1022.60 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.68/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.308 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT OF 1,816 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.043 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.95/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF .727 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.227 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.80/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT DEPOSIT 0F 1.862 MILLION OZ:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.954 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.48/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.04/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 454,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.092 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19/ NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: // ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.546 MILLION OZ./
AUGUST 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.92/ SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.183 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 495.848 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Silver’s price prospects
Panicky lease rates and backwardations in silver are widely publicised. They are characteristic of a bear squeeze. Can it be resolved, and will the price then subside?
| Alasdair MacleodOct 15∙Paid |
The silver chart below is enough to give investors vertigo, prompting them to think in terms of taking profits. But silver is no longer an investor’s market: it is turning from an industrial metal into a funk-hole for escapees from fiat credit.
For weeks we have been pointing out the bear squeeze conditions in both gold and silver, but it’s more acute in silver. It has now culminated in a well-advertised panic for physical metal in London, where vaults are desperately low on deliverable metal.
Normally, such an aggressive rise in values results in overbought conditions, and technical analysts point out that favoured measures such as relative strength indicators confirm that silver is wildly overbought. But a mechanical RSI is misleading. A more accurate market indicator is the level of open interest on Comex, which is the next chart:
Clearly, by this measure silver is far from overbought. And notably, it has remained neutral despite silver charging into new high ground. This is because the speculator categories, principally managed money representing hedge funds and momentum traders have not bought into it. But both the other reported and non-reportable categories have been taking delivery, with stand for deliveries this year so far totalling 11,732 tonnes — that’s 377.2 million ounces, the equivalent of 56% of silver mine output over the ten months of this year.
So, silver is not overbought and the momentum speculators are yet to buy. Given that silver is transitioning from industrial metal to an industrial metal with monetary characteristics, the chart that really matters is of the gold/silver ratio. This is next:
Note how after peaking at 103 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold last April, this number is in a full-on move lower, with its value being followed lower by both the short and long-term moving averages. It is this feature that confirms that silver is being repriced to reflect its historic monetary qualities.
Silver was the monetary standard for China until 1935, so from a practical viewpoint perhaps its monetary qualities are more ingrained in the citizens’ minds than gold. Furthermore, through the Shanghai Gold Exchange the People’s Bank controls the silver market alongside gold, confirming its monetary status in the legislators’ minds.
In the West, silver’s relationship with gold was set by Sir Isaac Newton at 15.5:1 in 1717. While bimetallic standards had problems, the fact that silver remained a monetary standard for many nations until the 1870s meant that the gold/silver ratio remained at that approximate level until Germany adopted gold, replacing silver following the Franco-Prussian war, when France paid reparations in gold to Germany. The other European nations then followed suit, and the silver price fell — i.e., the ratio rose to reflect its loss of monetary status. However, it remained in coinage well into the 20th century.
Today, the fiat currency era, which commenced following the suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement, appears to be coming to an end the way fiat currencies always do — through the accumulation of unsustainable debt eventually destroying faith in their value. For now, a small but growing minority of savers suspect that fiat currencies are in trouble. It is their buying that has led to the liquidity crisis now evident in Western bullion and paper markets.
There are two dynamics at work here. The first is that as the gold/silver ratio declines, perhaps toward one third of current levels, gold itself is rising measured in fiat currencies whose decline valued in gold appears to be accelerating. See the chart below.
The second problem for markets is that with an increasing tendency for both industrial users and savers to hoard silver, it takes on the characteristics of a Giffin good. That is when rising prices create further demand instead of profit-taking, evident as retailers are currently running out of bar and coins. Therefore, supply becomes increasingly restricted as prices rise.
Conclusion
Despite the prospect of arbitrage reflected in a backwardation between London spot and Comex (currently 99 cents on the active December contract), liquidity shortages look like persisting. Furthermore, silver is dramatically underpriced for any monetary role, and, being a Giffin good, it has the potential to double or triple in short order.
There appears to be no ready resolution to the current squeeze on the paper market.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS DAILY DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /244 AND 243
LAST WEEK:
END
I
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
Giustra: Reset HAPPENING Right Before Our Eyes, Gold Rockets to $5,000
by ITM Trading
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 11:31
“Western fiat currencies are in real trouble,” warns billionaire investor Frank Giustra in a new interview with Daniela Cambone. He foresees an imminent monetary reset that could send gold prices soaring, calling it a “once-in-a-century dynamic.” Central banks, he says, are quietly driving this shift through unprecedented gold buying—an early signal of eroding trust in paper money.
Giustra cautions that in a debt-laden world, even a small shock could trigger a cascading sell-off and a sharp market correction. The message is clear: as the system bends under its own weight, gold may be the last safe haven standing.
Follow Daniela on X: Daniela Cambone
About ITM Trading: ITM Trading has been a trusted leader in precious metals for over 28 years, helping clients protect and grow their wealth with custom gold and silver strategies designed for economic downturns and currency resets.
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
END
SILVER
Silver Wars: London Fades Away
by VBL
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 12:56
The Pressure Point
Authored by GoldFix;
Silver prices in London now trade above futures prices in both Shanghai and New York.
The gap signals a shortage of deliverable metal in the West’s key hub. Both China and the United States have metal available, yet neither has chosen to sell into London’s premium.
“There is demand for London metal, and there is little supply to provide for it.”
The imbalance has become a visible measure of how unevenly global inventories are distributed.
Shanghai: The Quiet Decision
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange could help relieve London’s shortage by sending metal westward. It has not.
Producers and refiners appear willing to wait for stronger bids or prefer to retain silver for domestic needs.
“They may think London will pay an even higher price.”
The decision may be commercial, but it also aligns with a broader pattern of China prioritizing internal stability and strategic reserve building.
The U.S. ETF Link
In the United States, silver demand continues through ETF investment. Every new SLV share must be backed by physical metal. Historically, much of that metal came from London.
“The relationship between London’s physical market and the U.S. SLV is very deep.”
Custodians and traders often operate across both centers. As U.S. ETF demand expands, available metal in London declines. The old circulation loop between the Comex and London has begun to thin.
London: The Empty Hub
For decades, London’s primary role was to refine, remelt, and redistribute silver worldwide. Nearly every bar traded on Comex or in Shanghai passed through a European vault or refinery. That system depended on steady inflows.
“All roads lead to London forever. Until now.”
London’s free-floating inventory — the portion available for immediate delivery — has fallen to historically low levels. Spot prices now exceed futures, reflecting tightness in physical supply rather than speculative exuberance.
The Mechanics of a Squeeze
When one market trades at a premium, arbitrage should correct it. But transfers of metal into London remain slow.
Holders in the U.S. and China appear to be waiting for better prices or simply prefer to keep their silver close.
“The score is being run up on London right now.”
Individual banks and traders face short-term stress, yet the deeper challenge lies in how global metal logistics have fractured. London’s financial role depends on smooth circulation, and circulation is breaking down.
Credibility at Risk
Even if shipments resume and prices settle, London’s reputation as the central benchmark for silver is now in question. Its daily fix, once treated as a neutral global reference, increasingly reflects a regional scarcity.
“London’s ability and status as a global accounting mechanism has been damaged, potentially irreparably.”
The precedent of the 2022 nickel event still weighs on the market. Confidence in any pricing center can erode quickly once trust is lost.
Regional Markets, Fractured World
The move away from globalization is now visible in commodity pricing.
As trade flows fragment, metals no longer share uniform prices worldwide. Each region begins to price according to its own access and priorities.
“When global commodities become regional in pricing, it destroys the supply chains of those commodities.”
The LBMA’s position between New York and Shanghai grows more difficult. Metal and market activity follow the flow of trade, not legacy institutions..
From Critical to Conflict Minerals
The silver story fits within a larger global shift.
Governments are accumulating metals for industrial policy, energy security, and financial protection. The modern term “critical minerals” is, in many ways, a polite version of what they have always been — contested resources.
“We are in a global metals war. Critical minerals are really conflict minerals.”
Copper, lithium, rhodium, and gold all share this dynamic. Control of supply is now a form of economic power.
Bottom Line: Structure Beneath the Price
Prices fluctuate daily, but the structure beneath them is what matters.
London once stood as the center of a fluid, global system. It now sits between two blocs ( one in Asia, one in the Americas) both increasingly self-contained.
“All they’re doing is leaving London and taking the metal with them, literally and metaphorically.”
The squeeze on London reflects a market dislocation symptom of a deeper problem.
It represents the new reality of trade flows divided on regional lines and the slow retreat of shared global supply manifesting in frayed global supply chains. Fragmentation of markets due to decentralization of demand has come to metals
Continues here
END
COBALT
Rare Earth Miner Stocks Slammed After U.S. Defense Department Cancels Cobalt Purchase
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 12:15 PM
Rare earth and battery metal stocks are tumbling today after the U.S. Defense Department abruptly canceled a high-profile tender to buy cobalt – at least for now – cutting short a torrid rally that had lifted the sector over the past several months.
Cobalt producers and related mining stocks had surged as prices more than doubled since February, fueled by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo — which supplies about three-quarters of global output — and renewed optimism over Western efforts to secure critical minerals.
The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) had sought bids since mid-August for up to 7,500 tons of cobalt over five years — a contract worth as much as $500 million — as part of Washington’s broader effort to rebuild domestic supplies of critical minerals, according to Bloomberg. After repeatedly extending the bid deadline from Aug. 29 to Oct. 15, the agency has now scrapped the tender altogether.
“There are outstanding issues with the Statement of Work that need resolution before offers may be solicited,” a notice on a U.S. government website said Wednesday. “Upon resolution, solicitation will be re-issued with a new opening and closing date.”
The cancellation marks a setback for U.S. plans to reduce reliance on China for key inputs in electric vehicles, batteries, and defense systems. Cobalt is used in rechargeable batteries, magnets, munitions, and jet engines, and Beijing dominates global processing while maintaining a significant state stockpile.
Bloomberg writes that the now-abandoned tender followed a sharp rebound in cobalt prices, which have doubled since February after the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed export restrictions.
The DLA had been courting suppliers including units of Vale SA in Canada, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. in Japan, and Glencore Plc’s Nikkelverk plant in Norway, seeking fixed prices for alloy-grade cobalt over five years. The U.S. had planned to spend between $2 million and $500 million under the program.
END
ALL KEY MINERALS: copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and especially the 17 vital rare earth elements.
The Slowly Mounting Mineral Shock
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Portia Roberts & Peter Bryant via RealClearEnergy,
China’s latest squeeze on mineral exports – and Washington’s threat of retaliation – ends any illusion that critical minerals are a niche matter. They are the scaffolding of modern society. A nearly bewildering array of minerals are essential for everything from defense technologies to EV dreams to the great race for “dominance” in artificial intelligence. Neither America, nor our allies, extract and refine enough key minerals.
The United States depends on imports for most (in some cases all) key minerals including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and especially the 17 vital rare earth elements. Without foreign suppliers, we face a shock of varying degrees, from serious to catastrophic, across all industries and services. COVID-driven supply chain disruptions provided a glimpse of what could come.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is one of a handful of non-aligned entities that looks at and advises about global critical minerals. Unfortunately, it appears that the IEA either ignores or is naïve about market-shaping realities, including those put in play last week by China. This matters because IEA’s genesis was the 1970s oil shock, tasked with brokering facts to anticipate, if not prevent another such catastrophic event in the future. Instead, IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 should earn a Pollyanna award; it assumes the kinds of needed cooperation, innovation, and capital flows are happening or will. If policymakers mistake that analysis as a blueprint, or as a rationale for inaction or action––as was done by the Biden Administration to justify the LNG-export pause—we could well learn what mineral scarcity looks like.
China is, as is now well-known, the dominant energy minerals market-shaper. It doesn’t merely mine and refine; it finances, secures offtakes, standardizes chemistries, and wields export controls. It commands a variety of chokepoints that differ for each mineral. In other words, it wields a monopolistic-like ability to manipulate markets. Dominance in the activities that make minerals useful neutralizes efforts to diversify the sources of various minerals. It doesn’t matter if a new mine opens in the US, or a different hemisphere or continent if one country’s investment can control a significant proportion of supply. And as a result China can “dump” so much supply, long enough, into the market to collapse prices that bankrupt competition, cause unprofitable mines to be mothballed, or make planned projects infeasible.
Nonetheless, new mines, smelters, and refineries are needed. But all face a steep uphill battle for multiple reasons, including what the IEA correctly calls “above-ground risks”—what the mining industry terms “the social license to operate” (SLO). These issues are really opportunities rather than risks, and their importance cannot be overstated. (Although the IEA Outlook understates them). If not properly engaged, dealings with local communities can stall or prevent permitting, or even slow or stop development. This ultimately adds costs, further advantaging China’s producers.
Another overlooked aspect is that it often takes decades for new sites to begin operations. Refining is an inherently energy-intensive and chemical-centric industry, a frankly dirty business. Western firms, and regulations, have long exercised due caution. But it will likely take a great deal of innovation and intense investment for new facilities to meet ever-more stringent environmental standards and costs that don’t again advantage China.
On top of that, an in-the-weeds nuance that is utterly critical: the IEA underplays the long-run decline in ore grades, i.e., the share of the rock that contains the mineral. Existing mines, particularly copper, will require ever more energy and water per ton of metal, creating more tailings waste to manage, more capital expenditure, and thus more delays. Efficiency and recycling can’t come close to doing enough to bridge the looming gap between supply and demand.
Oil shocks cause price leaps, lines at gas stations, political fallout. Mineral shocks are slow burns, until they’re not. They might initially surface as longer delivery times, stalled grid projects, costlier products––or some with missing features. But if mineral shortages continue, if (limited) stockpiles are exhausted, markets unavoidably face price shocks.
For the United States, the solution has long been known and remains urgent: rebuild end-to-end capability at home and simultaneously, vital for velocity, work with allies (and other friendly resource-endowed countries) on such key areas as geology, mining, refining, and component manufacturing. Streamline permitting without diluting environmental standards. Use different tools such as targeted offtakes, public-private finance and defense authorities to anchor new refineries and processing hubs. And level with voters: everything starts with mining (or farming). If we won’t mine at home or overseas with trusted partners, we will continue to face economic and security fragility—on terms set elsewhere.
The IEA was founded to help prevent energy shocks, not promote policies that make them more likely. In minerals, models that minimize or ignore chokepoints and social license realities will steer the world into the very emergencies we want to avoid. We don’t need aspirational scenarios. We need mineral realism.
Portia Roberts is Policy Director for the National Center for Energy Analytics.
Peter Bryant is Chairman of Clareo and Key Minerals Forum.
END
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.02 POINTS OR 0.10%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 22.09 PTS OR 0.09%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 605.07 PTS OR 1,27% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.83%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1246// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1274/ Oil UP TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 62.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1246 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1297 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1246
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1274
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 22.09 PTS OR 0.09%
2. Nikkei closed UP 605.09 PTS OR 1.27%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.35 EURO RISES TO 1.1656 UP 11 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.654//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.20…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.130 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5636// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.382 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.099
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.243
3j Gold at $4231.25 Silver at: 52.87 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 19 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.84
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.20/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.654% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.130 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7966 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9287 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.025 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.614 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.495 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.86 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5400 DOWN 1 PTS BUT STILL ESCALATING RAPIDLY
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.332 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.124 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.695 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise As Strong TSMC Results Reboot AI Optimism
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 08:37 AM
Stock futures rose as an olive branch from Treasury Secretary Bessent calmed trade-war fears, while a guidance hike from chipmaker TSMC (which saw profit rise 39%) rejuvenated the AI narrative. Mood was boosted as earnings beats continue to roll in and some traders are ramping up bets for a half-point Fed rate cut by year-end. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, with support from technology sector earnings, driving slight outperformance by Nasdaq 100 futures which are up 0.6%. Pre-market Mag7 names are all higher with Semis seeing a bid (AVGO +1.6%, NVDA +1.2%) with Cyclicals and Defensives indicated higher but Cyclicals outperforming. Europe’s Stoxx 600 also rose, with Nestlé SA jumping more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Bessent floated a longer-term US / China truce with the current agreement set to expire on Nov 10; the rare earth restrictions are receiving pushback from G7. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp and the USD is indicated lower for the third consecutive day. Commodities are mixed with Energy leading, Metals lagging, and Ags mixed. Today we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +1%, Apple +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.4%)
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) falls 9% after the computer hardware and storage company issued a full-year forecast for profit and cash flow that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
- Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) rises 2% after entering into an agreement to sell Del Taco Holdings Inc. to Yadav Enterprises Inc. for $115 million in cash, subject to certain adjustments.
- JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 12% after the transportation and logistics company reported third-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate helped by better cost control measures.
- Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) soars 54% as two studies in its Phase 3 Essential3 program of ulixacaltamide in essential tremor met their primary endpoints.
- Salesforce (CRM) rises 5.5% after the software company forecast that revenue growth will accelerate to double digits in the coming years.
- Sea Ltd. ADRs (SE) rises 4% after an upgrade from BofA Global Research to buy from neutral, with the analyst noting that there is “strong momentum” across businesses.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rises 2% after it hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.
- Travelers (TRV) falls 4% after the insurance company reported net premiums written that came in below the average analyst estimates.
- United Airlines (UAL) slips about 1% as analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence note that the airline’s results show signs of saturation, even for its premium seats.
Futures resumed their meltup after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its revenue-growth target and raised its forecast for capital spending. TSMC’s results reinforced hopes on the AI megatrend, after the chipmaker increased its revenue outlook for the second time this year, and underscored how leading chipmakers stand to be among the biggest winners from an AI investment boom that’s expected to top $1 trillion in the coming years. The market’s response showed investors remain optimistic about the corporate outlook, even as renewed trade tensions cast a shadow.
“We’re seeing that companies continue to spend, AI technology has been adopted and keeps being adopted,” said Anthi Tsouvali, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Equities should continue to move upwards. But having said that, I don’t think that it’s going to be a straight line.”
After several months of relative calm, friction between Washington and Beijing has flared up again, with stocks seeing sharp swings as dip buyers step in following selloffs. The latest development saw Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent float the possibility of extending a pause on import duties if China halts its planned controls on rare earths.
Despite the tensions, corporate earnings have reminded investors that the fundamentals for stocks remain strong at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. Among S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings through Wednesday, 78% have beaten estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Investors are getting so used to “political ups and downs, that they are now realizing that unless they hurt the earnings of companies, which are the real drivers of risk markets, then they really cannot affect equity markets,” Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities, multi-asset and sustainability at M&G Investments, told Bloomberg TV.
The debasement trade continued with gold soared as high as $4,247 an ounce, taking gains this year to more than 60% as trade frictions and expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts lured buyers. The dollar slipped for a third day and Treasuries were little changed. French bonds underperformed European peers as premier Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also rose, with food beverage and automobile shares leading gains, while travel and insurance stocks lagged; Swiss equities outperformed thanks to a jump for food giant Nestle which soared more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Nestlé shares surged as much 8.2% after the foodmaker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its chief executive officer
- Nordea Bank shares rose as much as 4.1% in Helsinki, reaching a record high, after the lender reported earnings that analysts said were solid, highlighting a beat for net interest income
- CCC fell as much a 9.4%, the most in two weeks, after Ningi Research issued a short report suggesting the Polish footwear retailer’s turnaround is a falsely engineered “illusion”
- Whitbread shares slid as much as 10%, the steepest drop since May 2020, after first-half results. Analysts pointed to higher-than-expected UK cost inflation and a cut in profit guidance for the Premier Inn owner’s German business
Asian stocks advanced, led by South Korea, as investors bet on improved prospects for a tariff deal with the US.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, poised for its biggest two-day gain since April. Korean chipmakers including Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the gain. TSMC also jumped before the company announced third-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. Key equity gauges traded higher in Taiwan and Japan while those in Hong Kong shares fell as investors turned cautious on the tech sector’s outlook. Korea’s Kospi surged 2.5% to a fresh record as hopes for a trade pact drove exporters higher. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects some outcome from negotiations “in the next 10 days,” according to Yonhap News. Meanwhile, executives from Samsung, Hyundai and other Korean firms may meet with President Donald Trump later this week, according to Korea Economic Daily. For the broader region, while the return of US-China trade tensions threatens to derail the breakneck stock rally since April, many investors are still betting that Trump will eventually back down from his tariff threats. In other specific markets, Japanese stocks rose amid eased political uncertainty over next week’s parliamentary vote to decide the prime minister. Australian stocks climbed to a record after unemployment jumped more than expected, strengthening the case for a rate cut.
In FX, dollar-yen rises as Japanese parties hash out policy talks toward possible coalition agreements. French politicians are debating ahead of no-confidence motions, which Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to survive.
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across a flatter yield curve, with 5s30s spread edging back toward 100bp with bunds and gilts seening similarly steady price action during London morning. Long-end yields are richer by about 1bp, with curve spreads broadly flatter by less than 1bp, 10-year is near 4.02%. Minimal moves in European bond markets, slight outperformance in gilts at the short-end after the UK’s economy ekes out modest growth. Focal points of US session include several Fed speakers and potential for more corporate bond offerings by big banks.
In commodities, gold touches another record high, now up $40 to $4,240/oz. Oil choppy but higher, with Brent trading above $62.
Looking at today’s US economic calendar we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); October retail sales and PPI reports and weekly jobless claims data will be delayed due to government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 +0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
- VIX -0.3 points at 20.31
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1209.79
- euro little changed at $1.1654
- WTI crude +0.4% at $58.53/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Bessent said the US investment boom is sustainable and just getting started, while he stated there is pent-up demand and America is open for business, according to CNBC. Bessent said the only thing slowing the US and President Trump down is the government shutdown, and he has seen numbers that the shutdown is hurting the economy by up to USD 15bln a day.
- US Treasury official said the government shutdown could cost the US economy USD 15bln per week, correcting Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent comments that estimated USD 15bln of costs per day.
- US bipartisan group of senators reportedly discussing several different potential off-ramps involving the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, discussing the possibility of two side-by-side votes intended to end the shutdown: Punchbowl.
- US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown: Politico
- Supreme Court on Wed sounded like it will rule against large chunks of the Voting Rights Act, potentially opening the door to a ~12 seat GOP boost in the House depending on how districts are redrawn. NYT
- Hamas said it’s handed over all the bodies of hostages that it can find without special machinery in the devastated Gaza Strip, but Israel countered it’s not trying hard enough and owes at least another dozen under the ceasefire terms. BBG
- China’s new rare-earth export curbs prompted a backlash from G-7 finance chiefs, with Scott Bessent signaling an emerging united front. Germany and Japan also said a joint response is being considered. BBG
- China Thurs morning clarified that its recent rare earth restrictions don’t amount to an outright ban and that exports will continue. “As long as the rare earths are used for civil purposes, [the exports] will be approved,” a spokeswoman for the commerce ministry said at a press briefing on Thursday. Newsweek
- TSMC posted a better-than-anticipated 39% jump in profit, the latest sign of robust AI spending. It also lifted its 2025 revenue growth outlook and said conviction in the AI megatrend is “strengthening.” BBG
- India will no longer purchase Russian oil, according to President Donald Trump, a major victory in his effort to pressure Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Politico
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday warned the U.S. will “impose costs on Russia” if it does not seek to end the Ukraine war, his strongest criticism yet of Moscow and a signal of the administration’s increasing support for Kyiv. Politico
- Big investors are cutting back their exposure to riskier corporate debt, in a bet that a huge rally in recent years has left the market vulnerable to a sell-off if the global economy falters. FT
- President Donald Trump said he might go to the Supreme Court to personally watch oral arguments on whether the bulk of his tariffs pass legal muster. The Supreme Court will hear arguments Nov. 5 over whether import taxes imposed by Trump are legal, with Trump saying the tariffs are authorized under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. BBG
- Seasonal job searches jumped 27% from last year and 50% from 2023, far outpacing postings and signaling a cooling US job market, according to Indeed. Retailers plan the fewest holiday hires since 2009. BBG
- BofA total card spending (w/e 11th Oct) +3.7% Y/Y (prev. 2.2%); surge driven either by higher prices during Amazon’s Prime Day amid tariffs, or strong demand.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don’t have tariffs, they don’t have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.
- US President Trump claimed that South Korea signed a deal to make an “upfront” payment of USD 350bln to invest in the US, while it was also reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said that South Korea and the US can resolve their differences over how to implement Seoul’s USD 350bln investment pledge, and that he expects “something” to come “in the next 10 days”, according to Yonhap.
- South Korean Presidential Policy Chief noted optimism when asked about tariff talks with the US, while South Korea’s Finance Minister said the US may accept South Korea’s proposal in tariff talks, according to Yonhap
- Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard said Mexico is in talks with the US to discount tariffs on heavy truck parts.
- Federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread undervaluing of imported appliances after Whirlpool (WHR) last month accused its rivals of possible tariff evasion, according to WSJ.
- Russian Deputy PM Novak responds to US President Trump’s remarks on India: says Russia continues to collaborate with partners, and Novak is confident partners will continue to work with them.
- China’s Commerce Ministry said it took a constructive stance during recent US-China trade talks. Says rare earth export controls are different to an export ban. All licence applications for civilian use will be approved.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained despite a choppy performance as US-China frictions remained in focus. ASX 200 printed a record high with most sectors in the green amid a softer yield environment, which was facilitated by a rise in unemployment. Nikkei 225 climbed higher and was unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders and comments from BoJ hawk Tamura. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged behind regional peers amid US-China frictions, and with the Hong Kong benchmark
underperforming amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks, while it was also reported that the FCC is to expel Hong Kong Telecom from US networks.
Top Asian News
- BoJ, PBoC and BoK governors held a tripartite meeting on October 15th in Washington, which BoJ Governor Ueda chaired, while they exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments.
- BoJ’s Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral and the growth rate of Japan’s economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path. Tamura said don’t need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks, but stated that there is a strong possibility that the slowdown in overseas economies will not be as significant as initially expected. Furthermore, he said given upside price risks, the BoJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the future. BoJ’s Tamura declined to comment when asked whether to propose a rate hike at the October meeting, while he stated he believes it is necessary to adjust the degree of monetary easing to make rate closer to neutral rate. He added a weak JPY could accelerate upward price pressures.
- RBA Assistant Governor Kent noted signs that financial conditions are less restrictive after past rate cuts and said the cash rate is within the range of neutral estimates, but the range is very wide and uncertain, while he added that neutral rates are not a suitable guide to the near-term path of monetary policy.
- Japan’s Innovations Party, Fujita says another round of discussion with the LDP will take place this Friday . Both parties have found a lot of common ground. Not certain that a deal will be ultimately reached
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened broadly modestly firmer, and have traded sideways throughout the morning. A brief slip seen in the earlier part of the morning, with no clear driver. Thereafter, indices picked up off worst levels amidst constructive trade-related commentary from the Chinese Commerce Ministry; it noted that “All licence applications for civilian use will be approved”. European sectors are mixed . Consumer Staples has been boosted by post-earning strength after it reported decent Q3 metrics and announced job cuts. Elsewhere, Consumer Discretionary has been hampered by some downside in Luxury names; LVMH and Kering both received downgrades, with downside also likely some profit-taking after Wednesday’s considerable upside.
Top European News
- French PM Lecornu suvives 1st round of no confidence motion; with 271 lawnmakers voting against the government (vs 289 thresold to oust government).
- IFS writes that Chancellor Reeves would need to raise the fiscal buffer to around GBP 50bln vs the GBP 9.9bln she had in March, in order to have a better than 50-50 chance of avoiding additional tax increases and/or spending cuts, according to Bloomberg.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is to launch an initiative next week with 20 of the UKʼs largest pension funds, which will try to make it more seamless for pension funds to back British infrastructure and growth projects, according to FT.
- ECB’s Dolenc says rates should hold steady unless new shock hits, inflation risks are balanced, growth on a solid path.
- Swiss Government forecasts: Higher US tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy; forecast reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels.
FX
- DXY is a touch lower with the USD overall showing a mixed performance vs. peers. The US macro narrative remains fixated on the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China with the latest salvo from Trump being that, if the US doesn’t have tariffs, they don’t have national security. For now, the focus for the market is whether this is merely a negotiating tactic by Trump or a genuine intention to squeeze the Chinese economy. The US government remains shutdown and as such, tier 1 data points are lacking. For today’s agenda, the Philly Fed Business Index is due following yesterday’s solid NY Fed Manufacturing print. Elsewhere, the speaker slate includes Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari. DXY hit a WTD low overnight at 98.41 before trimming losses.
- EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD in the run-up to the no-confidence votes in French PM Lecornu. The first motion put forward by the far-right National Rally (RN) will likely fail, as RN and the Union for Democratic Change (UDR) are the only major parties that are backing it. The second motion, put forward by the far-left, La France Insoumise (LFI), has a greater potential to pass given that it could see support from both the Left and the Right. If Lecornu survives, there will likely be some additional reprieve for the EUR and a narrowing of the GE/FR spread. If he falls, odds of fresh legislative elections will rise. Elsewhere, ECBʼs Lane, Lagarde, Wunsch and Kocher are due to give remarks later. EUR/USD has been as high as 1.1675.
- JPY is fractionally firmer vs. the USD with the pair extending above the 151 mark. The focus for Japan remains on domestic politics with LDP leader Takaichi scrambling to secure her position as PM. Her path to power appears to be reliant on forming an alliance with the Japanese Innovation Party (JIP) with the parties having met today and expected to continue discussions tomorrow. Overnight, BoJ’s Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral. However, his comments had little follow-through to JPY, given he is the most hawkish member on the board. USD/JPY is still some way off yesterday’s peak at 151.87.
- GBP is firmer vs. the USD and extending on Wednesday’s upside. August’s M/M UK GDP printed in-line with expectations at 0.1% with the prior revised lower to -0.1% from 0%. On the budget, the latest trial balloon from the Treasury is that taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story”. For today’s agenda, BoE’s Mann and Greene are due to give remarks. Cable has ventured as high as 1.3442 with the next upside target coming via the 50DMA at 1.3473.
- AUD is flat vs. the USD after shrugging off overnight losses that were triggered by the latest Australian labour market report .The release saw an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and a smaller-than-forecast increase in employment change. Subsequently, AUD/USD slipped onto a 0.64 handle, delving as low as 0.6480 with odds of an RBA rate cut standing at circa 71%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0968 vs exp. 7.1186 (Prev. 7.0995).
Fixed Income
- USTs are slightly firmer thus far, in contrast to EGBs and Gilts . However, magnitudes are slim with gains of just 6+ ticks at most in a 113-08 to 113-13+ band. A parameter that is entirely within Wednesdayʼs 113-06+ to 113-17+ range. Thus far, the main points of focus are US President Trump saying they are in a trade war with China. Though, commentary this morning from Chinaʼs Commerce Ministry has perhaps been a little more conciliatory than we have seen in recent sessions. Ahead, Fed speakers in focus with six officials appearing a total of nine times across the day. Additionally, we await the Philly Fed manufacturing report, which follows this week’s upside surprise seen in the Empire manufacturing survey, and ahead of PMI data due next week.
- OATs marginally bid as the French PM survives the 1st no confidence motion; now awaiting 2nd vote . Into the second vote, OATs trade slightly heavier than Bunds with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread wider today and as high as 78.5bps. Of the two motions, the one filed by La France Insoumise (LFI) has a chance of passing; full Newsquawk primer available on the feed. For the motion to pass, a majority in the Assembly of 289 votes is needed. Elsewhere, no move to the morningʼs French tap which, while taken down well enough and without reaction, was a little softer than the last very strong outing.
- A slightly softer start to the day. Bunds have at most posted losses of 21 ticks at a 129.93 trough . However, this has since moderated a touch to losses of just under 10 ticks in a 129.93 to 130.14 band. Specifics for the benchmark were a little light, no supply from Germany though the Spanish tap was received well enough and spurred no discernable reaction. Elsewhere, the final Italian inflation print for September was unrevised
- Gilts opened unchanged at Wednesdayʼs 92.43 close . External leads prior to the open were a little mixed, with USTs firmer while Bunds were softer but both within reach of the unchanged mark. The morningʼs main update for the UK was August growth data. Overall, the series came in broadly as expected though the return to growth for the headline was offset by a downward revision to negative territory for Julyʼs M/M figure. The data doesn’t change the narrative for the BoE of a hold in November and a cut being possible in December. With a move dependent on how the next data points print (particularly CPI) and the November Budget. On that, the Guardian adds to recent reports around taxes for the wealthiest members of society while the FT previews the launch of a pension funds initiative next week.
- Spain sells EUR 4.442bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 1.25% 2030, 2.55% 2032 and 3.20% 2035 Bono.
- France sells EUR 11.499bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, 2.70% 2031, and 0.00% 2031 OAT.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks remain rangebound throughout the APAC session despite increased Russian oil restrictions and rising trade tensions. WTI and Brent oscillate in a USD 58.55-59.11/bbl and USD 62.18-62.75/bbl band respectively, as markets wait for further confirmation of Russian oil export restrictions. Most recently, crude futures have dipped down to fresh lows, but lacks a clear driver.
- Spot XAU continues to climb to record levels, peaking at USD 4242/oz during the APAC session and currently trading just shy of best levels at USD 4230/oz. This comes as US-China tensions, ongoing US government shutdown and further expectations of rate cuts in the US drive the precious metal higher.
- Base metals currently trading relatively muted as trade tensions weigh on the metal space while structural challenges support the metal space. 3M LME Copper is currently oscillating in a c. USD 130/t range as the market waits for more news.
- Vice President of Transneft says companies have not reduced oil supplies to the pipeline system; have enough capacity as Russia’s OPEC+ oil output quota increases.
- “Russian Energy Minister: Oil refineries will postpone maintenance work to meet market needs”, according to Al Arabiya.
- UBS sees the decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory, further boosting the portfolio appeal of gold, which could rise towards UBS’ upside case of USD 4,700/oz.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) says production has started at its Bacalhau field (220k BPD)
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Distillate -4.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. – 0.1mln).
- US President Trump said Indian PM Modi assured him that they won’t buy Russian oil, while he added that they now need to get China to stop buying Russian oil. It was later reported that some Indian oil refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with refiners expecting a gradual reduction in imports, according to Reuters sources.
- Saudi Aramco CEO warned of a global oil shortage if the industry fails to invest, according to FT.
- Ukraine’s military says it struck Russia’s Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) overnight
Geopolitics
- IDF says “Sirens sounding in Eilat following a hostile aircraft infiltration”, via X; Eilat alarms in Israel were a false alarm, according to Al-Hadath correspondent.
- Israel reportedly gave the US new intelligence that shows Hamas has access to more of the bodies than it claims, according to Axios’ Ravid, while it was separately reported that the Red Cross received the remains of two new hostages, according to Sky News Arabia.
- US senior advisor said there were very positive conversations involving the US on making sure aid reaches Gaza, while the advisor stated that stabilisation forces are starting to be constructed and that many countries have raised their hand to be part of a Gaza stabilisation force.
- “Senior Egyptian official to Saudi Al-Hadath TV: The issue of the return of the dead hostages may lead to the postponement of the next stages of the Trump plan”, according to Kann News.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said Ukraine would like to go on the offensive in the war with Russia, while he also suggested that Russian President Putin could make a settlement.
Geopolitics: Other
- US President Trump confirmed that he authorised the CIA to operate in Venezuela.
- Venezuela’s government said it rejects the statement by US President Trump in which he publicly admitted to having authorised operations to act against the peace and stability of Venezuela, while it stated the US statement constitutes a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Furthermore, it stated that US manoeuvres seek to legitimise an operation of “regime change” with the ultimate aim of appropriating Venezuelan oil resources.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Oct Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior 23.2
- 10:00 am: Aug Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
- 10:00 am: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 33, prior 32
Central Bank Speakers
- 9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
- 9:00 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Stablecoins
- 9:00 am: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
- 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Stress Testing Research Conference
- 4:15 pm: Fed Governor Stephen Miran in Moderated Conversation
- 6:00 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Town Hall in South Dakota
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets recovered some ground yesterday as strong earnings and more positive signals on the US-China relationship helped to boost investor optimism. So that meant the S&P 500 (+0.40%) closed at its highest level since Trump’s tariff announcement on Friday, whilst US HY spreads also tightened a further -16bps. Similarly in Europe, France’s CAC 40 (+1.99%) posted its best performance since May amidst a surge for LVMH (+12.22%) after its earnings release, and the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) also hit its highest level since the Friday tariff news. So there’s been some more positivity returning to markets, with investors hoping that an escalation in the trade war can still be avoided.
Starting with that trade news, there were a few positive signals from Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday which raised hopes that the 100% additional tariffs on China wouldn’t end up being implemented. Bessent said that as far he knows, President Trump “is a go” for meeting with President Xi this month. And he also suggested that the US could extend the trade truce for a longer period if China didn’t pursue its plan to put export controls on rare earths. That said, there was little sign of backing down by Trump, and shortly after the US equity close, he suggested that the US was in a trade war with China and again signalled 100% tariffs.
This backdrop led to a topsy-turvy session, with a positive mood dominating overall as the S&P 500 closed +0.40% higher, though it had been up as much as +1.20% shortly after Bessent’s comments. The trade-exposed areas saw a clear outperformance, seemingly reflecting investors’ growing confidence that the full 100% tariffs will ultimately be avoided. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+1.70%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (+2.99%) posted strong gains, with latter also helped by positive commentary from ASML (+3.12%). So that meant the NASDAQ (+0.66%) and the Mag-7 (+0.79%) also outperformed. And there was a further boost from solid bank earnings, with Morgan Stanley (+4.71%) and Bank of America (+4.37%) both rising after their latest results.
In others news, Bessent also confirmed that he had narrowed the number of Fed chair candidates from 11 to 5, who CNBC have reported are Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. And Bessent also said that the next round of interviews would begin later in November, after which he imagines sending 3-4 names for Trump’s consideration. Bear in mind that incumbent Fed Chair Powell’s four-year term as Chair comes to an end in May, and as it stands on Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the most likely to be nominated as Chair, with a 34% chance, with Kevin Warsh in second on 19%.
Against that backdrop, front-end Treasury yields moved slightly higher yesterday, as the more positive sentiment led investors to dial back their expectations for rapid rate cuts. So the 2yr yield (+1.6bps) ended the day at 3.50%, though the 10yr yield was down -0.4bps to 4.03%, its lowest in four weeks. Matters were also helped by some decent economic data, with the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey rising to 10.7 (vs. -1.8 expected). But of course, we didn’t get the previously-scheduled CPI release because of the government shutdown, which is coming out on October 24 instead. And concern about a prolonged shutdown has continued to mount, with no signs yet of a compromise emerging between Republicans and Democrats. Indeed, Polymarket odds of the shutdown lasting beyond November 16 are up to 32% after a federal judge ordered the administration to pause plans to fire federal workers during the shutdown. And we’re already on day 16 now, making this shutdown the joint-third longest with 2013. Only two others have gone on for longer, which are the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96, and the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.
Over in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a stronger performance, in part because of lower oil prices, which is helping to ease concerns about inflation. Indeed yesterday, Brent crude oil prices (-0.77%) closed at a 5-month low of $61.91/bbl, though they are back up to $62.45 overnight after Trump suggested that India would halt purchases of Russian oil. So yields fell across the continent yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-5.4bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all moving lower.
Meanwhile, the Franco-German 10yr spread tightened to a one-month low of 77bps, as investor expectations grew that PM Lecornu’s government would survive two no-confidence votes today. As a reminder, Lecornu proposed suspending the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election, meaning no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028. So that led the Socialist Party to say they wouldn’t vote to topple the government, which has increased Lecornu’s chances of winning. But the National Assembly remains fractured between different political groups, and all eyes will be on the result, particularly given two former PMs (Barnier and Bayrou) have lost confidence votes in the last 12 months.
Otherwise, European equities were also relatively upbeat, with the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) advancing thanks to strong company earnings. Most of its gains were supported by the CAC 40 (+1.99%), which posted its biggest jump since May after LVMH (+12.22%) reported strong earnings. However, it was a different across the rest of Europe, with the FTSE 100 (-0.30%) and the DAX (-0.23%) both losing ground.
Overnight, the equity rally has stalled out following Trump’s comments, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.04%) basically flat. But we have seen a decent performance from several indices in Asia, including the KOSPI (+2.11%), which is on track for another record, alongside a strong advance for the Nikkei (+1.08%). Chinese equities have seen more muted gains however, with the CSI 300 (+0.33%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) only posting modest gains. And over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.81%) has risen after the latest employment data for September was weaker than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% (vs. 4.3% expected). In turn, that’s led investors to price in a growing chance of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting, with futures now suggesting a 63% probability of a cut in November, up from 36% yesterday. So that’s led to a rally for government bonds too, with the 10yr yield (-4.8bps) down to 4.16%, and the Australian dollar has weakened -0.35% against the US dollar.
To the day ahead now, and we’ll get UK August monthly GDP, Italy’s August trade balance, Eurozone August trade balance, Canada September existing home sales, housing starts. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller, Barr, Bowman and Miran, and the ECB’s Lagarde, Kocher, Wunsch and Lane. Notable earnings for today include Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers
2 b) European opening report
2c) Asian opening report
Trump says US-China are in a trade war, European equities set to open with modest losses – Newsquawk European Opening News
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 01:36 AM
- US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don’t have tariffs, they don’t have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.
- The US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.
- BoJ’s Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral, but does not need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks.
- US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn’t uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.
- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter.
- Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep).
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mostly higher although price action was choppy in which equities bottomed out after Europe left for the day with a trough seen as Tech stocks took a hit, namely NVIDIA (NVDA), seemingly in response to a Reuters article that Anthropic updated its smallest AI model, which is much cheaper than its more expensive models, and performs as well or better.
- The news revived fears that tech names could be overpaying for AI chips from NVDA when the power needed may not be as much as initially thought – a similar reaction to the DeepSeek fears. Nonetheless, stocks then rebounded off lows, while there was also a lot of focus on US/China relations, with Bessent and Greer noting that the recent export controls are a global supply chain power grab and act of economic coercion, although Greer suggested there is room for positive relations with China, and he expects restrictions will not be implemented.
- SPX +0.41% at 6,672, NDX +0.68% at 24,745, DJI -0.04% at 46,253, RUT +0.89% at 2,518.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don’t have tariffs, they don’t have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.
- US President Trump claimed that South Korea signed a deal to make an “upfront” payment of USD 350bln to invest in the US, while it was also reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said that South Korea and the US can resolve their differences over how to implement Seoul’s USD 350bln investment pledge, and that he expects “something” to come “in the next 10 days”, according to Yonhap.
- South Korean Presidential Policy Chief noted optimism when asked about tariff talks with the US, while South Korea’s Finance Minister said the US may accept South Korea’s proposal in tariff talks, according to Yonhap
- Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard said Mexico is in talks with the US to discount tariffs on heavy truck parts.
- Federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread undervaluing of imported appliances after Whirlpool (WHR) last month accused its rivals of possible tariff evasion, according to WSJ.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Miran (voter) said AI investment could lead to a higher neutral interest rate and that recent policy changes, including immigration, have produced fast changes in the neutral rate. Miran also said Fed policy is more restrictive than people think because the neutral rate has fallen, while he puts less weight on the value of changing policy gradually and does not think moving by more than 50bps cuts is necessary.
- Fed’s Waller (voter) said AI is moving so fast that they will see job losses before they see new jobs, while it may be a couple more years before they see new jobs from AI replacing the old jobs.
- Fed Beige Book stated that employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labour was generally muted across Districts and sectors. It also stated that economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks, although auto sales were boosted in some Districts by strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US investment boom is sustainable and just getting started, while he stated there is pent-up demand and America is open for business, according to CNBC. Bessent said the only thing slowing the US and President Trump down is the government shutdown, and he has seen numbers that the shutdown is hurting the economy by up to USD 15bln a day. Furthermore, he is not advocating that the Fed shrink its balance sheet or move away from an ample reserves system and said the Fed should use QE sparingly, like antibiotics, while he added that QE reform is an important consideration for the next Fed Chair choice.
- US Treasury official said the government shutdown could cost the US economy USD 15bln per week, correcting Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent comments that estimated USD 15bln of costs per day.
- US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.
- US Budget Director Vought said they are definitely talking about thousands of people regarding government layoffs and could be more than 10k.
- US judge blocked the Trump administration from laying off workers at more than 30 agencies amid the shutdown.
- US regulators are poised to offer capital relief to community banks, according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained despite a choppy performance as US-China frictions remained in focus.
- ASX 200 printed a record high with most sectors in the green amid a softer yield environment, which was facilitated by a rise in unemployment.
- Nikkei 225 climbed higher and was unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders and comments from BoJ hawk Tamura.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged behind regional peers amid US-China frictions, and with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks, while it was also reported that the FCC is to expel Hong Kong Telecom from US networks.
- US equity futures were little changed following yesterday’s choppy mood and as participants await earnings releases and several Fed speakers.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY remained pressured after retreating yesterday amid the backdrop of US-China trade frictions, with President Trump acknowledging that they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don’t have tariffs, they don’t have national security. Participants also digested the latest rhetoric from the Fed including from Governor Miran who stated there is more downside risk than a week ago, and with the change in the balance of risk, it is more urgent to get to a more neutral policy quickly, while the latest Fed Beige Book noted employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks and that demand for labour was generally muted across Districts and sectors.
- EUR/USD benefitted from the weaker buck and extended on the prior day’s gradual advances, with some encouragement from recent optimism by ECB officials regarding the economy and after better-than-expected Industrial Production data.
- GBP/USD returned to above the 1.3400 level following recent outperformance and as Chancellor Reeves flagged higher taxes on the wealthy, while participants await the incoming UK monthly GDP and output data scheduled later.
- USD/JPY initially trickled lower amid the softer dollar and recent comments from hawkish BoJ board member Tamura, who stated the BoJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the future.
- Antipodeans traded mixed with AUD pressured following disappointing jobs data from Australia, where headline employment change missed forecasts and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% from 4.2%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0968 vs exp. 7.1186 (Prev. 7.0995).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures rebounded after the choppy performance seen yesterday alongside a slew of comments from Fed and government officials.
- Bund futures took a breather and held on to this week’s spoils after climbing to above the 130.00 level.
- 10yr JGB futures were subdued with the curve flattening following comments from hawkish BoJ board member Tamura.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures edged higher amid the mostly constructive mood and after US President Trump stated that Indian PM Modi assured him they won’t buy Russian oil, although the upside was contained after the latest weekly private sector inventory data showed surprise builds in both headline crude and gasoline stockpiles.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Distillate -4.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. -0.1mln).
- US President Trump said Indian PM Modi assured him that they won’t buy Russian oil, while he added that they now need to get China to stop buying Russian oil. It was later reported that some Indian oil refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with refiners expecting a gradual reduction in imports, according to Reuters sources.
- Saudi Aramco CEO warned of a global oil shortage if the industry fails to invest, according to FT.
- Spot Gold continued its record-setting rally with prices at a firmer footing above the USD 4,200/oz level amid a softer dollar.
- Copper futures remained lacklustre following the prior day’s retreat and amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually advanced overnight after returning to above the USD 111k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ, PBoC and BoK governors held a tripartite meeting on October 15th in Washington, which BoJ Governor Ueda chaired, while they exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments.
- BoJ’s Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral and the growth rate of Japan’s economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path. Tamura said don’t need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks, but stated that there is a strong possibility that the slowdown in overseas economies will not be as significant as initially expected. Furthermore, he said given upside price risks, the BoJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the future. BoJ’s Tamura declined to comment when asked whether to propose a rate hike at the October meeting, while he stated he believes it is necessary to adjust the degree of monetary easing to make rate closer to neutral rate. He added a weak JPY could accelerate upward price pressures.
- RBA Governor Bullock said the latest data suggests consumption has been a little stronger than they thought, and that data is giving them time to think whether there is more easing to come or not, while she added that policy is not really restrictive in Australia, and rather marginally tight.
- RBA Assistant Governor Kent noted signs that financial conditions are less restrictive after past rate cuts and said the cash rate is within the range of neutral estimates, but the range is very wide and uncertain, while he added that neutral rates are not a suitable guide to the near-term path of monetary policy.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Aug) -0.9% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -4.6%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Aug) 1.6% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.9%)
- Australian Employment (Sep) 14.9k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. -5.4k)
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.2%, Rev. 4.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s Defence Minister instructed the military to prepare comprehensive plans to ‘defeat Hamas’ in Gaza if war is renewed.
- Israeli media quoted a security source stating that Hamas is aware of the whereabouts of the bodies of other hostages and if Israel deems that Hamas is not releasing additional bodies, Israel will consider its steps, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel reportedly gave the US new intelligence that shows Hamas has access to more of the bodies than it claims, according to Axios’ Ravid, while it was separately reported that the Red Cross received the remains of two new hostages, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Hamas armed wing said it has handed over all hostages and bodies it was able to recover so far, while the remaining bodies need efforts and special equipment to recover. Furthermore, it stated that it is committed to what was agreed upon in the ceasefire deal.
- US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn’t uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.
- US senior advisor said there were very positive conversations involving the US on making sure aid reaches Gaza, while the advisor stated that stabilisation forces are starting to be constructed and that many countries have raised their hand to be part of a Gaza stabilisation force.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Ukraine would like to go on the offensive in the war with Russia, while he also suggested that Russian President Putin could make a settlement.
OTHER NEWS
- US President Trump confirmed that he authorised the CIA to operate in Venezuela.
- Venezuela’s government said it rejects the statement by US President Trump in which he publicly admitted to having authorised operations to act against the peace and stability of Venezuela, while it stated the US statement constitutes a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Furthermore, it stated that US manoeuvres seek to legitimise an operation of “regime change” with the ultimate aim of appropriating Venezuelan oil resources.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves said higher taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story” at the upcoming budget, while the Chancellor told the Guardian there “won’t be a return to austerity” and hinted at tax increases for the most well off.
- IFS writes that Chancellor Reeves would need to raise the fiscal buffer to around GBP 50bln vs the GBP 9.9bln she had in March, in order to have a better than 50-50 chance of avoiding additional tax increases and/or spending cuts, according to Bloomberg.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is to launch an initiative next week with 20 of the UK’s largest pension funds, which will try to make it more seamless for pension funds to back British infrastructure and growth projects, according to FT.
- ECB’s Villeroy said the global economy is surprisingly resilient, while Villeroy also commented that France can’t afford to fixate on short-term fiscal challenges and must find credible solutions for reducing its deficit.
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
EUROPE
KOLBE
This is very important: Rare earths is held back by China can cost up to 4 million German jobs and destroy their economy for good
(kolbe)
Europe In The Rare Earth Trap: Up To 4 Million German Jobs At Risk As Beijing Tightens
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 09:10 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Rare earth elements have become geopolitical dynamite. According to a new analysis by consultancy McKinsey & Company, up to four million jobs in Germany are on the line if top supplier China imposes a permanent export ban.
These critical minerals are indispensable to Germany’s high-tech economy: they’re used in precision sensors, specialized magnets, and control systems essential to engineering, defense, communications, and aerospace. Without them, a significant share of the country’s industrial value creation would grind to a halt.
McKinsey’s analysis, cited by Handelsblatt, puts the risk in stark numbers: one million jobs in core technology sectors could be directly threatened if supply lines collapse. These industries generate about €150 billion in annual value added — the beating heart of German innovation and manufacturing.
The Downstream Domino Effect
The fallout wouldn’t end there. A vast network of suppliers and consumer-oriented industries tied to those wages depends on stable supply chains and geopolitical calm. McKinsey estimates another three million jobs in downstream sectors and retail would be at risk if a trade war with China triggered a lasting supply cutoff.
In a worst-case scenario, Germany faces a total of four million endangered jobs and an annual value-added loss of €370 billion — roughly 9% of its GDP. While this is a modeling scenario, it illustrates the brutal leverage of global resource politics.
Germany’s industrial fragility is already visible. Since 2018, output in key sectors like mechanical engineering has collapsed by over 30%, with total industrial production down about a quarter. Roughly 250,000 well-paid industrial jobs have disappeared — and the slide shows no sign of stopping. A sudden cutoff of rare earth imports would collapse entire production lines within weeks.
Choke Point: China
Germany is dangerously dependent on China, which controls around 70% of global rare earth production and about 90% of processing capacity. In 2024, 65% of Germany’s rare earth imports — 5,200 tons worth over €64 million — came directly from China. If Beijing turns off the tap, Europe’s high-tech supply chain will stall like an engine without fuel.
Given its market dominance, Beijing wields enormous pricing and coercive power. That’s why finding alternative sources has become a top priority in both Brussels and Washington.
One unlikely player in this global chess game: Greenland. The island’s Kringlerne and Kvanefjeld deposits hold some of the largest known rare earth reserves in the world — enough to supply global demand for decades.
Greenland: The West’s Escape Hatch?
Greenland’s strategic value is obvious: it could break China’s stranglehold on critical minerals essential to both high-tech and energy transition industries. But between ambition and reality lies a canyon. Development has so far been blocked by high infrastructure costs, strict environmental regulations, complex permitting, and local opposition — a textbook case of Western self-handicapping.
Europe’s fatal dependency on Beijing’s goodwill has created a dangerous global imbalance. Brussels is largely defenseless against China’s state-backed export machine, which is flooding Europe with cheap goods while Beijing holds the decisive rare earth trump card.
From a European perspective, the question is obvious: Would closer strategic alignment with Washington have been smarter than constant confrontation?
Strategic Rift with Washington
Such a pivot would require a radical shift in Brussels. The U.S. under Donald Trump has returned to minimal government and free-market principles. For Europe to partner effectively, it would have to shed its climate obsession and embrace real market economics.
The transatlantic gap is stark. Europe imports around 60% of its energy, is resource-poor, and has isolated itself geopolitically by breaking with Russia. The U.S., in contrast, is energy independent and can leverage economic and military power to secure access — whether through Greenland, domestic mining, or temporary Chinese imports.
Trump’s tariff strategy has shown how powerful this leverage can be: tariffs on Chinese goods have not triggered U.S. inflation because producers and traders in China absorbed the costs through their margins. Washington has a massive geopolitical hammer — and it will use it to secure rare earths.
EU Digging Its Own Hole
While the U.S. uses hard power to push Beijing to the table, Europe is losing access to its former resource-rich spheres of influence. What France experienced in Niger — losing uranium access — is now repeating on a continental scale.
Brussels’ response: recycling initiatives and trade deals with South American countries to cover part of its rare earth demand. These may ease pressure but won’t solve the structural problem: dependency remains.
If Europe wants to protect its industrial base, it must negotiate — at potentially high cost — to buy time for a fundamental policy reset. That means returning to free-market principles, ditching its climate cult, and rebuilding transatlantic trust.
But political reality tells a different story. Neither Brussels nor Berlin shows any sign of abandoning the eco-socialist path. In the end, it will be Europe’s workers who pay the price.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
GERMANY/EUROPE//USA/CHINA/INDIA
Has Trump 2.0’s Eurasian Balancing Act Failed?
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The global systemic transition to multipolarity is nowadays proceeding along a different trajectory than before due to recent shifts in the international system.
Up until this point, Trump 2.0 sought resource and military partnerships with Russia and India respectively that could decelerate China’s superpower rise, which would then make it the junior partner in any “G2”/“Chimerica” deal.
His Eurasian balancing act has failed, however, due to his arrogant and aggressive approach towards all three countries.
Ties with Russia took a hit after the Anchorage Summit following increasingly concerning reports about US plans to support NATO troops in Ukraine, thus spooking Putin into abandoning his country’s own Eurasian balancing act by pivoting to China.
This took the form of the legally binding deal that was just clinched for constructing the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
The US’ envisaged resource-centric partnership with Russia, which aimed to entice concessions on Ukraine, is now much less likely.
As for India, ties worsened during its springtime clashes with Pakistan, which saw Trump favor Pakistan and even lie about India agreeing to an alleged US-mediated ceasefire. The US then hypocritically imposed punitive tariffs on India over its continued trade with Russia despite eschewing such for China and others.
All the while, Trump viciously insulted India too. Concluding that he’s hellbent on derailing its rise as a Great Power, India swiftly patched up its problems with China and distanced itself from the US.
With Russia pivoting to China via Power of Siberia 2 amidst the Sino-Indo rapprochement, the resource and military means for decelerating China’s superpower rise through partnerships with them were neutralized, thus leading to any “G2”/“Chimerica” deal now being in China’s favor instead.
President Xi Jinping accordingly espoused stronger rhetoric about reshaping the world order during his speeches at the SCO Summit and V-J Day, which prompted Trump to accuse him of “conspiring” against the US.
The interim Sino-US trade deal is now in jeopardy after he just threatened the imposition of 100% tariffs on China by 1 November or earlier depending on when China imposes its export controls on rare earth minerals.
Coupled with his dramatic accusation that Xi is “conspiring” against the US in collusion with Putin and Kim Jong Un, this could presage future military-strategic tensions, even if only indirectly via proxy. That would further destabilize Eurasia per the US’ traditional divide-and-rule stratagem.
In clockwise order, these could take the form of:
- fomenting Color Revolution unrest in Mongolia in order to undermine Power of Siberia 2;
- Japan, Taiwan, and/or the Philippines provoking an incident with China at sea in contested waters;
- obstructing China’s access to rare earth minerals in Myanmar’s Kachin State;
- and/or sowing instability in Central Asia via NATO member Turkiye through the new TRIPP Corridor.
China’s response to these scenarios could be to arm Russia and even send troops to help it in Ukraine.
Xi saw how Trump mistreated his friend Modi despite him leading a state that could have joined the US’ anti-Chinese axis, while also watching how he’s betraying Putin in Ukraine after Anchorage, so he expects similar treatment if he agrees to a “G2”/ “Chimerica” deal.
He also knows that China now has a target on its back after the latest tariffs and Trump accusing him of a “conspiracy”. It’s therefore little wonder that Trump 2.0’s Eurasian balancing act, which was characterized by arrogance and aggression, has failed.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
END
GERMANY
Climate Lunatics In Germany Want Total Deindustrialization In Just 15 Years
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by ‘eugyppius’ via ‘A Plague Chronicle’,
Hamburg is German’s leading industrial city.
Its companies add 20 billion Euros in gross value every year.
Much of this economic output is related to Hamburg’s happy location on the Elbe and the fact that the city is home to Europe’s third-largest port. All of this has made Hamburg extremely prosperous, which prosperity has filled it with rafts of clueless virtue-signalling morons who have no idea how anything works, why they find Hamburg attractive in the first place or how their hip urban lifestyles are maintained.
In this photo, published by BILD, you can see some of these unmitigated retards having a happy because they’ve just scored cheap virtue points by voting in their own personal energy apocalypse.
Specifically, these dumbasses are celebrating because their completely insane popular referendum passed with 53.2% of the vote on Sunday. This referendum, the so-called Zukunftsentscheid (“future decision”), binds the Free and Hanseatic City to achieving total carbon neutrality by 2040, five years earlier than the 2045 goal set by the almost equally insane Germany-wide Climate Protection Law as emended in 2021, which is in turn five years earlier than the 2050 goal established by the selfsame law as it originally passed the Bundestag in the year of the child-saint Greta Thunberg 2019.
Turnout was pretty low in Hamburg last Sunday, with less than 44% of eligible voters bothering to cast a ballot, most of them by mail. Thus just 23% of the most deranged Hamburgians could take their city hostage and commit its government to destroying all of its industry and most of its economic activity inside the next decade and a half.
The biggest joke is that when Hamburg has finally achieved the sacred Net Zero, it will make absolutely zero net difference to anything.
Hamburg is responsible for something like 0.022% of CO2 emissions globally. The city is not even a rounding error.
The referendum was an initiative of Fridays for Future, but it gathered the support of various social and environmental organisations, among them Greenpeace, the union Verdi and even FC St. Pauli. It will successively cap annual CO2 emissions sector-by-sector, imposing a slow and relentless strangulation in turn on transit, households, commerce and industry.
Consider just some of the consequences:
- All gas and oil heating systems in every last building in Hamburg will have to be changed out in the coming years.
- The cost to landlords will be reckoned in the billions.
- Hamburg’s entire natural gas network, constructed over generations and extending to nearly 8,000 kilometers, will soon have to be decommissioned entirely.
- The city will probably have to impose on all of its streets a strict speed limit of 30 kph (19 mph) and take drastic steps to reduce traffic.
- Municipal industries must transition from petroleum coke and gas entirely to hydrogen and e-fuels, although there is hardly a market for either of these alternatives or even the hope of one.
If this law is not reversed, Hamburg will become a wasteland.
First industry will leave, and then all the people will.
Look again at this photo:
It is absolutely imperative to get these sorts of people out of politics. They are crazy and they are doing everything in their power to destroy civilisation.
They are insulated from a lot of the economic chaos they wreak because they’re overwhelmingly government bureaucrats, university types and hipsters who are to varying degrees reliant on the state to make their living.
They’re renters rather than owners, they live near the city centre rather than in the suburbs, they’re young rather than old (h/t Apollo News for that link) and they think what they’ve done is just fantastic.
END
FRANCE
French Stocks Higher After PM Lecornu Survives No-Confidence Motions
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 07:45 AM
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence motions in parliament on Thursday after pledging to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s contested pension reform to win support from Socialist lawmakers ahead of today’s votes to avert a snap election.
The first motion, brought by the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), secured 271 votes, falling short of the 289 required to oust the government. A second challenge from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally was backed by only 144 votes but needed 289 to pass.
Lecornu’s decision to suspend pension reforms until after the 2027 presidential election helped gain the support of Socialist lawmakers. This allowed Macron’s centrist alliance to avert another collapse and provide some political stability amid deep polarization in parliament and waning sentiment polls for Macron’s administration.
Le Pen’s number two, Jordan Bardella, slammed the rejection of the first motion, which fell short by just 18 votes. He accused MPs of being “responsible for the suffering to come”, writing on X that “a bargaining majority managed to save their seats today = at the expense of the national interest”.
Following the failed confidence votes, Macron loyalist and National Assembly president Yaël Braun-Pivet, stated that it’s “important for France to have government stability.”
“We’ll be looking for that balance in the months ahead. The game is far from over,” Braun-Pivet said.
France’s CAC 40 stock market index rose after Lecornu survived the two no-confidence votes, suggesting potential political stability ahead.
There’s no doubt that Lecornu owes his survival to the concessions he made to the Socialists. And the next challenge for Macron-Lecornu is passing the government budget in the highly polarized parliament.
END
SWITZERLAND/NESTLE
SIGN OF THE TIMES!!
“World Is Changing”: Nestlé Shares Surge Most Since 2008 After Announcing Plans To Cut 16,000 Jobs
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 08:25 AM
Shares of Swiss food giant Nestlé SA jumped more than 8% in Switzerland today, marking the largest intraday gain in 17 years. This followed the company’s announcement of an acceleration in its turnaround efforts, including aggressive restructuring measures such as slashing 16,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global workforce, over the next two years.
“The world is changing, and Nestlé needs to change faster. This will include making hard but necessary decisions to reduce headcount over the next two years, Nestlé CEO Philipp Navratil wrote in a statement.
The restructuring is part of a broadened cost-savings plan targeting $3.7 billion by 2027, paired with an earnings release that showed stronger-than-expected Q3 sales growth of 4.3%.
The news sent Nestlé shares surging 8.25%, the largest intraday surge in October 2008.
On the year, shares are up 10% after being nearly halved since peaking in late 2021. Shares recently bounced off late 2016 lows.
Wall Street analysts welcomed new signs of improvement in Nestlé’s Real Internal Growth. Nestlé also reiterated its guidance.
Here’s what Wall Street is saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
RBC (sector perform)
- Analyst James Edwardes Jones says this update could be the one that shows Nestlé is on the path to “rehabilitation” in RIG, noting a strong 120bps beat on this metric
- Nespresso saw the strongest beat in 3Q, while Nestlé Health Science growth was also a meaningful beat
- Maintaining of guidance is as expected
Morgan Stanley (underweight)
- Results are a “step in the right direction,” with RIG +1.5% vs consensus at 0.3%, analyst Sarah Simon writes
- However, still some drag effects from China, and notes that 4Q will face some tougher comparisons
- Welcomes the higher cost savings ambitions and says this “suggests a greater sense of urgency to resolve underperforming areas”
Vontobel (buy)
- 3Q faced relatively easy comps, but Nestlé definitely delivered on RIG, which has been a key focus, analyst Jean- Philippe Bertschy says
- Beyond the numbers, CEO comments help put Nestlé on the “offensive” and seemingly heading in the right direction
Jefferies (hold)
- Step up and transparency on cost savings is welcome, alongside better-than-expected results, according to analyst David Hayes
- Remains some concern that 4Q growth will step down, showing still plenty more to do, but this is a good start
Analysts hold 11 “Buys”, 12 “Holds” and 1 “Sell” on Nestlé with an average 12-month price target of 85 CHF.
. END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES
Trump Warns If Hamas Doesn’t Disarm, ‘We Will Disarm Them, Maybe Violently’
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 05:20 PM
With the Israeli hostages now released and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners being returned from Israeli prisons, officials look to the next phases of the Trump-brokered peace deal, which the consensus is will be the hardest. It involves the disarming of Hamas and establishing future governance of the Gaza Strip.
On Tuesday, President Trump made clear that Hamas would be required to disarm under the deal, warning that if the group refused to do so voluntarily, the US would intervene, possibly through force – though in characteristic fashion his comments were left ambiguous, and reporters were left wanting to know more.
“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them, and it will happen quickly and maybe violently,” he told reporters, emphasizing that Hamas would have no choice. When pressed on how he intended to carry out such action, Trump declined to provide details, saying, “I don’t have to explain that to you… They know I’m not playing games.”
The Pentagon has already deployed up to 200 troops to Israel where they are assisting in terms of operational oversight of the ceasefire. Trump’s words hint that it could be a short step to take some of these troops are embed them in Gaza, to assist the IDF in finally disarming Hamas.
Hamas has already reasserted control over areas previously vacated by Israeli forces and has gone on an execution campaign against alleged collaborators and criminals. Dozens have been reported killed in the last couple days.
President Trump noted that Israel had armed certain gangs and militias as part of its anti-Hamas strategy. “They took out some very bad gangs – really bad people – and that doesn’t bother me,” Trump said, appearing to offer some rare positive commentary on Hamas. “That’s fine. Those were very bad gangs.”
A day earlier, he said Hamas had received “approval” for such operations, adding that with nearly two million people returning to devastated neighborhoods, instability was a major concern. “We want it to be safe. I think it’s going to be fine. Who knows for sure,” said Trump.
Hamas has been rounding up rival armed groups which sought to undermine the group’s power…
Meanwhile, the future of the deal still has a high degree of uncertainty, given Hamas leaders have reiterated that their armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, will not surrender its weapons until an independent Palestinian state is established. However, this is a goal which the Netanyahu government has clearly rejected.
Hamas and Israel could yet further clash given the IDF has been ordered to destroy the miles and miles of tunnels which exist under Gaza, and which have formed key infrastructure for Hamas command bunkers and their foot soldiers’ movements.
end
Remains of two Gaza hostages arrive at National Center of Forensic Medicine for identification
The IDF requested that the public act with sensitivity and wait for official identifications before sharing unconfirmed information.
An armed Hamas terrorist stands guard as a Red Cross vehicle arrives to receive from Hamas terrorists the remains of deceased hostages who had been held in Gaza since the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/DAWOUD ABU ALKAS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 15, 2025 21:40Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2025 02:11
The remains of two deceased hostages were brought to the National Center of Forensic Medicine in Abu Kabir for identification, the Health Ministry confirmed early Thursday morning.
Israel received the remains from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) late Wednesday night, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.
“The IDF requests to act with sensitivity and wait for the official identification, which will first be provided to the families of the hostages,” the military stated.
Remains of two hostages set to be returned
Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigade has announced that it will release the remains of two deceased hostages on Wednesday evening, according to various reports, which contain conflicting information ranging from two to five bodies.
Professional teams in Egypt are currently discussing methods for locating the remaining 21 slain hostages, the officials stated.
Since Monday, Hamas has released the bodies of seven deceased hostages and one body that it claimed was a hostage but was revealed by the IDF to be an unknown Gazan.
This is a developing story.
end
Hamas has ability to hand over ‘double digits’ of hostage remains, source tells KAN
An Israeli source told KAN News that Hamas can return a double-digit number of the remains of deceased hostages, but is not making sufficient efforts to do so.
An armed Hamas terrorist stands guard as a Red Cross vehicle arrives to receive from Hamas terrorists the remains of deceased hostages who had been held in Gaza since the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Gaza City, October 14, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/DAWOUD ABU ALKAS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 16, 2025 11:17Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2025 11:53
Hamas is capable of returning a double-digit number of deceased hostages‘ remains, an Israeli source told public broadcaster KAN News on Thursday.
The terror group is not making enough effort to return the remains of the hostages still held in terror captivity, even though it knows the burial locations, according to the source.
After the remains of Inbar Hayman and Muhammad al-Atarash were returned on Wednesday night, the remains of 19 hostages remained in Gaza.
While Israel acknowledges that it may take a long time to locate, retrieve, and transfer the remains of some of the hostages, exacerbated by the war causing destruction to infrastructure, there is an assessment that Hamas knows the locations of more hostage remains, which it could return if it wished to, KAN reported.
Israel told the Trump administration that Hamas is not doing enough to recover hostage remains, and thus, the Gaza deal cannot move into the next phase unless this changes, two Israeli officials and one US official told Axios on Wednesday.
Hamas knows where additional remains are, source tells ‘Post’
Hamas knows very well where the remains belonging to at least some of the hostages who have not been returned are located, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
The terror group has stated several times that it cannot locate all the murdered hostages in the strip, stressing as recently as earlier the same evening that it has already handed over all the hostages it could access.
Locating the remaining hostages would require extensive efforts and special equipment, the terror group claimed.
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
END
Amichai Chikli says either Hamas disarms ‘or we will have to return to fighting’
Chikli’s comments came after it was confirmed that Hamas had returned a body that was not that of an Israeli hostage to Israel.
Amichai Chikli, Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister attends a conference organized by the Ministry of Diaspora Affairs, at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem on March 27, 2025.(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)ByBATSHEVA SHULMANOCTOBER 16, 2025 12:08
If Hamas does not hand over its weapons, the IDF may return to fighting the terror organization in the Gaza Strip, Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said in a Wednesday interview with Channel 14.
“We are not in a state of routine – this is a significant moment, and we must be precise: either they hand over the weapons, or we will have to return to fighting,” Chikli said.
“The government has defined clear goals in the war. Thanks to military and diplomatic pressure, a deal was reached that led to the return of some of the hostages alive.”
At the time of writing, Hamas has returned the remains of nine hostages since the commencement of the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s Israel-Hamas Gaza peace plan. Nineteen more remain in the Gaza Strip.
“Israel has bent Hamas and defeated it, it has given up the kidnappers and the territory, and this is a significant achievement,” he continued, adding that “the IDF controls large areas in the Gaza Strip.”
Next stage of the deal
Chickli’s comments mirror similar ones made by Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Regarding the next phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed cautious optimism and said that he is hopeful that it will go smoothly, saying that “we agreed to give peace a chance.”
Speaking after US President Donald Trump’s brief visit to Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Netanyahu said that now that the living hostages have been returned, Hamas’s demilitarization and disarmament must come next.
“First, Hamas has to give up its arms, and second, you want to make sure that there are no weapons factories inside Gaza. There’s no smuggling of weapons into Gaza. That’s demilitarization.”
Netanyahu noted that Trump’s conditions are very clear and warned that Hamas’s failure to comply could mean that “all hell breaks loose,” in a Tuesday interview with CBS.
Trump also said on Tuesday that Hamas must disarm or the terrorist group will be disarmed, stating online that “the job IS NOT DONE” after the terrorist organization violated Trump’s peace plan and the 72-hour deadline set for the return of all hostages, living and dead, from captivity in Gaza.
“If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” he said later during a meeting at the White House with Argentine President Javier Milei.
END
Israel receives bodies of hostages Inbar Haiman, Muhammad el-Atrash; Hamas says it has no others
19 slain hostages yet to be returned; Hamas claims it can’t find them; Trump says Hamas is looking; his advisers vow none will be ‘left behind’; Israel threatens to resume war if terror group doesn’t comply with deal
By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Nurit Yohanan Follow
and Jacob Magid Follow
Today, 2:47 am
Hostages Inbar Haiman (left) and Sgt. Maj. Muhammad el-Atrash, whose bodies were returned by Hamas late October 15, 2025. (Courtesy)
Hamas transferred two caskets containing the remains of two slain Israeli hostages, Inbar Haiman and Muhammad el-Atrash, on Wednesday night, as it claimed to have recovered the bodies of all the deceased captives “that it was able to reach.”
The bodies of 19 slain hostages have yet to be returned.
The two caskets were collected by the Red Cross from Hamas in Gaza City, then transferred to Israel Defense Forces troops who brought them out of the Gaza Strip.
Once in Israel, the caskets were inspected by the army, then draped in Israeli flags and honored in a brief ceremony led by a military rabbi.
Police proceeded to escort them to the Abu Kabir forensic institute in Tel Aviv to identify the remains and determine the cause of death. Several hours later, the bodies were identified as belonging to Haiman and el-Atrash, and IDF representatives notified their families.
Haiman, 27, a visual communications student from Haifa, was murdered by terrorists at the Nova music festival near Re’im on October 7, 2023, and her body was abducted to Gaza, the IDF said, citing intelligence information. Her death was officially declared in December 2023.
She was the last female hostage still held in Gaza.
Sgt. Maj. el-Atrash, 39, a father of 13 from Sa’wa who served as a tracker in the Gaza Division’s Northern Brigade, was killed on October 7 and his body was abducted to Gaza. It was not until June 2024 that the IDF revealed, based on findings and new intelligence, that he had been killed while battling Hamas terrorists in the area of Nahal Oz on October 7.
Israeli citizens and soldiers pay their respects as a convoy carrying the bodies of hostages Inbar Haiman and Muhammad el-Atrash arrives at the Abu Kabir forensic institute in Tel Aviv, after they were transferred by Hamas on October 16, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
The Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement that the government “shares in the deep sorrow of the Haiman and el-Atrash families and all the families of the fallen hostages.”
“The government and all branches of Israel’s national security system are determined, committed, and working tirelessly to bring back all our fallen hostages for proper burial in their homeland,” the PMO added.
Hamas did not identify the remains. It also did not do so the previous day, when one of the four bodies purported to be of dead hostages that it handed over was determined to be of a Palestinian. The terror group has yet to return the remains of 19 hostages.
As the two caskets were transferred out of Gaza, Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened on Wednesday to resume fighting if Hamas did not honor the truce deal, saying he ordered the military to ready a “plan to crush” the Palestinian terrorist group in the event of renewed combat.
“If Hamas refuses to comply with the agreement, Israel, in coordination with the United States, will resume fighting and act to achieve a total defeat of Hamas, to change the reality in Gaza and achieve all the objectives of the war,” a statement from Katz’s office said.
Members of the Hamas military wing stand guard before handing over the hostages on October 13, 2025. (Bashar TALEB / AFP)
But Hamas’s military wing claimed in the lead-up to the handover that it had met its obligations under the October 9, 2025, US-backed ceasefire deal by returning all living hostages to Israel, and the bodies of all the dead captives “that it was able to reach.”
“What remains of the bodies of hostages [that were not returned] requires great effort and special equipment to search for, and we are making great efforts to resolve this issue,” it said.
‘Nobody is getting left behind’
Speaking to reporters shortly after the bodies returned to Israeli territory, US President Donald Trump claimed that Hamas was looking for the remaining deceased hostages held in Gaza.
“It’s a gruesome process… They’re digging and they’re finding a lot of bodies. Then they have to separate the bodies,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
“Some of those bodies have been in there a long time, and some of them are under rubble. They have to remove rubble,” he continued. “Some are in tunnels… that are way down under the earth.”
US President Donald Trump speaks during an event in the Oval Office at the White House, October 15, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)
Mediators have warned that it may take weeks for Hamas to locate the bodies of all the hostages, due to the destruction across Gaza, an assessment echoed by a pair of senior Trump advisers during a briefing with reporters on Wednesday.
“We’ve heard a lot of people saying, ‘Hamas violated the deal, because not all the bodies have been returned.’ The understanding we had with them was we get all the live hostages out, which they did honor that,” said one of the advisers.
The October 9 agreement requires Hamas to release “all Israeli hostages, living and deceased” within 72 hours of the ceasefire taking effect — a deadline that expired on October 13. However, subclauses in the same agreement also state: “Within the 72 hours, Hamas will release the remains of the deceased hostages in its possession and those in the possession of the Palestinian factions in Gaza.” And, “Hamas will share, within the 72 hours, all the information it obtained relating to any remaining deceased hostages” through an “information-sharing mechanism.”
“Right now, we have a mechanism in place where we’re working closely with mediators… to do our best to get as many bodies out as possible,” the senior aide added on condition of anonymity. “We continue to give [the mediators] the intelligence that the Israelis have [on where bodies may be located] and we keep working in good faith until we are able to exhaust that mechanism.”
The second top Trump adviser, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “Hamas did the right thing when they gave all of the 20 live hostages up at the same time. That was a big moment.”
The second adviser noted that it was only possible to begin retrieving bodies once the ceasefire came into place last week, given that Gaza had been an active war zone.
The amount of debris in Gaza dwarfs what was left after the World Trade Center was bombed on 9/11, the second Trump aide asserted. “On top of all that debris is a lot of unexploded ordnance, and presumably, under that… there are many bodies.”
“It would have been almost impossible for Hamas — even if they knew where all the 28 bodies were — to mobilize and get them all,” said the second Trump adviser.
“First we got three. Then we got four. Then we got another four,” the aide continued, citing incorrect figures on the number of bodies Hamas returned. The terror group transferred four bodies on both Monday and Tuesday, though one of the latter four was later identified as a Palestinian, while only two bodies — not four — were returned on Wednesday.
“We’re probably going to put together some program where we’re going to ask [Gazans] to see if they can help us to locate bodies, and we’re going to pay rewards for that type of good behavior,” the second Trump adviser revealed.
A Red Cross vehicle said to be carrying hostages freed by Hamas in the Gaza Strip on October 13, 2025 (Screen grab via Al Jazeera)
He added that the US has been in touch with Turkey, which is willing to send experts to help retrieve bodies, as they have experience derived from earthquakes. It is not clear whether Israel would accept such assistance, given the bad blood between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“The sentiment in Israel is always [that Hamas] can do more. What we basically say to the Israeli side… is, ‘Give us whatever intelligence you’re hearing or seeing… If you think that there’s something [the mediators or Hamas] could be doing or should be doing that you don’t think they’re doing, then pass it over and we’ll convey it,” the first Trump adviser said.
While recognizing the complexity of the matter, the second Trump adviser stressed that the US is committed to retrieving all remaining bodies of hostages.
“We’re not going to leave here until everybody comes home… Nobody is getting left behind,” he said.
‘Slow-walking’
The briefing came as the Axios news site reported that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a top adviser to Netanyahu, accused Hamas of “slow-walking” the returns while speaking with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Citing US officials, the report added that two senior Israeli officials apparently passed on intelligence to the US showing Hamas has access to more of the bodies than it claims.
“We don’t see Hamas making maximum effort regarding the bodies. We know they can do more and we don’t think anybody should give them any discounts,” one of the officials said, as quoted in the report.
The US official told the news outlet that Washington believes Hamas will eventually return all the bodies, “but it is going to take time.”
“We will continue working on it but we can’t allow the deal to collapse,” the official stressed.
Agencies and Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
END
YEMEN/HOUTHIS
Yemen’s Houthis say chief of staff Muhammad al-Ghamari killed
Ghamari died from injuries sustained in a targeted IDF strike in Yemen on June 14, during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran.
Former Houthi Chief of Staff Muhammad Abd Al-Karim Al-Ghamari.(photo credit: Telegram/Used in accordance with Clause 27a of the copyright law)ByREUTERS, YONAH JEREMY BOBOCTOBER 16, 2025 15:38Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2025 17:11
Yemen’s Houthis said on Thursday that their Chief of Staff Muhammad Abd Al-Karim al-Ghamari, one of the most senior military officials of the Iran-backed group, was killed “while fulfilling his duties.”
Without directly blaming Israel for his killing, Houthis said that the conflict with Israel had not ended. Israel will “receive its deterrent punishment for the crimes it has committed.”
The Houthis had fired missiles towards Israel in what they said were acts of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, most of which have been intercepted. Israel has responded with strikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
The IDF conducted strikes in Yemen on June 14 in an attempted targeted attack on senior Houthi military leaders, IDF sources confirmed to The Jerusalem Post.
“We will soon know if it succeeded,” an Israeli source told the Post at the time.
Who was the killed Houthi leader
Ghamari was chosen as the chief of staff of the organization in 2016, when the Houthi Supreme Political Council gave him the rank of major general.
He became the Commander-in-Chief of the terror organization in 2021, when he replaced Abdul Khaleq al-Houthi (who nowadays is the second leader of the Houthis).
After being appointed Commander-in-Chief, the UN Security Council sanctioned him for “his role in threatening the peace, security, and stability of Yemen.”
He was also sanctioned by the US Department of the Treasury, with an “Executive Order 13611, an authority aimed at blocking property of persons threatening the peace, security, or stability of Yemen.”
“Ghamari is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13611 for having engaged in acts that directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security, or stability of Yemen, such as acts that obstruct the implementation of the agreement of November 23, 2011, between the Government of Yemen and those in opposition to it, which provides for a peaceful transition of power in Yemen, or that obstruct the political process in Yemen,” their statement said.
Israel reacts to Houthi chief of staff’s death
Prime Minister Netanyahu commented on the killing of Ghamari, “Another Chief of Staff has been eliminated in the line of terrorist commanders who sought to harm us – we will reach them all.”
“The determined hand of the State of Israel will reach all those who sought to harm us and set themselves the goal of destroying Israel,” said a statement by the PM Office.
“The Houthi terrorist organization has now announced that their chief of staff, who was attacked in the powerful first strike that thwarted most of the Houthi leadership in Yemen, has died from his wounds, thus joining his thwarted comrades of the evil axis in the depths of hell,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz.
“I visited the ‘Houthi War Room’ of the Intelligence Directorate and thanked the Head of the Intelligence Directorate, Maj.-Gen. Shlomi Binder, and the rest of the department for the excellent work they have done and will continue to do against the Houthis in the future. We have worked hard against the Houthis to remove significant threats – and we will do so against any threat in the future as well,” he added.
END
Egypt seeks 10,000-person Palestinian force in Gaza as talks on Trump plan enter second phase
Egypt proposed an initial deployment of 1,000 security personnel trained in Jordan or Egypt, aiming to gradually expand the effort to enforce post-ceasefire security.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi meet ahead of a world leaders’ summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a U.S.-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS)ByTHE MEDIA LINE STAFFOCTOBER 16, 2025 02:57
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have entered a new stage, with Egypt proposing the deployment of up to 10,000 Palestinian security personnel in Gaza as part of the second phase of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, according to The Wall Street Journal.
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
The force would initially consist of around 1,000 officers trained in Egypt and Jordan to help stabilize the Strip and enforce security following the ceasefire. Egyptian officials hope to expand the contingent over time, but Israel is expected to oppose any arrangement involving the Palestinian Authority or a sizable armed Palestinian presence in Gaza.
Phase two of Trump’s plan
The discussions mark the next step in the implementation of Trump’s plan, which in its first phase required Hamas to release all hostages, living and deceased. The current stage focuses on postwar governance, new security arrangements under Arab supervision, and the gradual disarmament of Hamas.
A proposed international stabilization force under Arab leadership would oversee that process and serve as a buffer between Israel and Hamas, but Arab governments are reportedly reluctant to participate out of concern they could be viewed as occupiers.
Several logistical issues remain unresolved, including the reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which was supposed to resume operations after the first phase of the agreement. Israeli officials say the continued closure gives them leverage in negotiations over the return of additional hostage remains.
So far, Hamas has returned seven bodies, though one was later identified as Palestinian. Israel has returned 45 Palestinian bodies in exchange for three deceased hostages.
Humanitarian aid continues to flow through the Kerem Shalom crossing, with up to 600 trucks entering Gaza daily as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement. Another transfer of hostage remains is expected on Wednesday, while Egyptian and Turkish teams continue recovery operations based on Israeli-provided coordinates.
Officials familiar with the talks say that while progress is steady, finalizing the security arrangements, and defining Gaza’s postwar administration will take time.
END
GAZA/TURKEY/ISRAEL
Israel blocking Turkish rescue teams from Gaza until Hamas returns hostages’ remains – official
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also convened senior security officials to discuss Hamas’s refusal to return the bodies of the fallen and the next phase of the Trump plan.
Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians congregate in Jabalya, northern Gaza Strip. January 30, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)ByAMICHAI STEINOCTOBER 16, 2025 21:35Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2025 21:41
Israel will continue refusing to allow a Turkish delegation of 81 rescue personnel and heavy equipment to enter the Gaza Strip until Hamas returns all the remains of deceased hostages that it can, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
“There is a group of hostages’ bodies that Hamas can return right now. Another group they know the location of, but they need equipment and assistance to retrieve them. And there are some bodies they genuinely do not know where they are,” an additional source said.
“We know for certain that Hamas can easily release a significant number of hostages in accordance with the agreement. What they are doing now is a fundamental violation of that agreement,” Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said in a statement on Thursday.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to discuss remaining Gaza hostages
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened senior security officials to discuss Hamas’s refusal to return the bodies of the fallen and the next phase of the Trump plan.
“I know exactly how many killed soldiers Hamas is holding, and if we do not receive them, Israel will know how to act accordingly,” Netanyahu stated.
In Israel, officials are expected to allow more time for the US administration to pressure the mediators to, in turn, pressure Hamas, before Israel takes further steps.
Mediators have argue that heavy equipment and expert teams will be essential to recover the remains. “Some bodies are buried deep underground; others are near unexploded bombs, Hamas cannot retrieve those remains from such places,” said a source involved in the mediation efforts.
“We agree with Israel that Hamas knows where some of the buried hostages are, but it simply cannot reach them without assistance.”
Meanwhile, despite statements by senior Israeli officials that there will be no discussion of Phase Two of the Trump plan until all hostages are returned, the United States and other countries continue to hold talks on the issue.
Two sources familiar with the details told the Post that in the coming days, senior American, European, and Arab officials are expected to meet in Egypt to discuss the plan.
“There must not be a vacuum that allows Hamas to grow stronger,” Western diplomats told the Post.
SYRIA/RUSSIA
Syria’s Sharaa Meets With The Man Who Spent 9 Years Bombing Him
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 07:40 PM
For many years during the height of the war in Syria, Russian jets pummeled the Al-Qaeda/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) enclave of Idlib province. Even some US officials admitted it was the biggest single concentration of Al-Qaeda terrorists in the world (yet the CIA had a significant role in helping them oust it from government forces in the first place).
HTS was of course founded and led by ISIS/AQ operative Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who in the wake of Bashar al-Assad fleeing the country on December 8, 2024 took power in Damascus and rebranded himself ‘interim’ President Ahmed al-Shara. So it’s somewhat unexpected to behold that same Jolani/Sharaa being given the red carpet treatment in Moscow for his first ever visit and meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In essence, the former leader of al-Qaeda in Syria is in Moscow meeting with the very Russian leader who spent 9 years bombing him. Back in 2015, when it was more than clear to honest observers that the US and Gulf allies had backed a proxy war of regime change to try and oust Assad, Damascus invited the Russian military to intervene.
Russia was effective in preventing the al-Qaeda hordes from reaching Damascus and key cities for many years; however, far-reaching Washington sanctions and an American occupation of the country’s oil and gas regions took its toll, and the last secular Ba’ath state in the Middle East fell to the Sunni fanatics of HTS.
But Putin, ever the pragmatist, is trying to redefine relations with Damascus, at a moment the fate of Russia’s two coastal military bases on the Syrian Mediterranean hang in the balance.
An unlikely meeting: the moment the two leaders greeted…
“During this time, relations between Syria and Russia have always been exclusively friendly,” Putin said in the discussions with Sharaa. “We in Russia have never had any relations with Syria that were tied to our political circumstances or special interests. Throughout these decades, we have always been guided by one thing: the interests of the Syrian people.”
“This is a great success for you, as it leads to the consolidation of society,” Putin said. “Despite Syria currently going through difficult times, it will nevertheless strengthen ties and interaction between all political forces in Syria.”
As for Sharaa, he thanked Putin for hosting him and declared, “We are working to restore and define the nature of this relationship in a new way.”
Hopefully, Putin at least pressed him privately on the issue of protection of religions and ethnic minorities. Sharaa’s HTS forces as well as foreign jihadists have been persecuting Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds.
Russia has always presented itself as the protector of ancient Eastern Christian communities in the Middle East, especially Orthodox Christians of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Palestine – who are all in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.
Ironically, as Sharaa met with Putin Wednesday, former President Bashar al-Assad is being hosted in exile, under heavy security, in the same city. Some media reports have raised the likelihood that al-Sharaa could raise the question of Bashar al-Assad’s extradition.
This is something officials in the new Syrian government have already been pushing for, but is unlikely to happen, as it would be seen as too big a concession to those Western powers who destabilized Syria in the first place by funneling arms to the jihadist ‘opposition’ – which included known and designated terrorists.
Many ironies which a few short years ago would have seemed as impossibilities…
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Make It Rain: Ukraine Wants Up To $20BN In Arms From NATO Backers Next Year
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 04:15 AM
European countries in NATO on Wednesday signaled their readiness to go all-in on President Trump’s plan to transfer US weapons to Ukraine using allied funds. The Biden administration had basically donated most arms, but Trump’s plan is to sell them, making the US role a little more indirect. But this could effectively put the most hawkish European leaders in the driver’s seat related to the still ratcheting proxy war.
“Thanks to funding from allies, we are providing Ukraine with critical U.S. equipment,” NATO chief Mark Rutte proclaimed as alliance defense ministers met in Brussels. “And today, we heard from ally after ally about new contributions.”
At this point twenty NATO allies in total are pledging support for the scheme, which aims to take care of Keiv’s long-term defense needs as if faces down Russia’s special military operation, possibly for years to come.
“Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands have pledged $2 billion in four separate PURL packages,” Politico notes. “And on Wednesday, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Finland among others were poised to finalize a fifth package, according to three NATO diplomats, who like others quoted in this story were granted anonymity to speak freely.”
As for Berlin, it said it is ready to buy $500 million worth of American weapons for Ukraine under a new program to fast-track military equipment.
Pistorius articulated that Germany’s “package addresses a number of urgent requirements of Ukraine. It provides air defense systems, Patriot (missile) interceptors, radar systems and precision guided artillery, rockets and ammunition.”
He stated Germany would separately provide “another two Iris-T air defense systems, including a large number of guided missiles, as well as shoulder-fired air defense missiles.”
This comes also as the Zelensky government wants allies to rain money on his government and military. They’ve issued their wish list or shopping list, at the top of which is US Tomahawks – though it remains anything but certain whether Trump will authorize such a brazen escalation against Moscow.
The Ukrainians are poised to pounce as Western governments open their wallets, using European taxpayers’ money of course. This part is nothing new.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth tries to put on a tough show of strength even as Russia is continuously ascendent on the eastern battlefield, though Moscow is absorbing losses at home as its oil infrastructure gets pummeled…
Zelensky’s Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal estimated Ukraine will need between $12 billion and $20 billion worth of military aid next year as part of NATO’s new purchasing initiative. He specifically said this would help the country procure badly needed long-range artillery shells.
Again, all this is a recipe for dragging the war on yet further, and without end, as people die in the hundreds of thousands. All sides have essentially admitted that peace talks are dead at this point, and Trump has expressed frustration with Moscow.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE.USA
Trump: “Great Progress Made” Towards Peace In Putin Call, Gaza Deal Paves Way For Ukraine Truce
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 01:20 PM
President Trump has just concluded his “lengthy” phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after which he declared on Truth Social that “great progress was made” towards peace in the Ukraine conflict.
He further called it “a very productive” conversation wherein Putin congratulated him on the “Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East” – in reference to the Gaza peace deal.
Importantly, Trump then emphasized, “I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine.”
Trump signaled there will be a high level meeting between US and Russian officials, and eventually another direct Trump-Putin summit, which he said would eventually happen in Budapest Hungary.
According to more from Trump’s statement:
We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over.
At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined.
President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.
President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more.
I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.
But the reality is Trump is still unwilling to pressure Kiev on making territorial concessions (at least publicly, and as far as we know), and there also needs to be more robust guarantees of never joining NATO. All the while Trump is said to be mulling Tomahawk missiles. The full note…
As for the Kremlin side, it issued a much vaguer initial statement, also agreeing that it was a “positive and productive” phone call.
But at least the two sides are talking, but let’s hope it actually leads somewhere – and fast – before Europe leads to West further up the escalation ladder toward WW3-style nuclear confrontation with Moscow.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
Bananas, kiwi, potatos are essential
(zerohedge)
Raising Potassium Levels Protects Heart Patients
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A simple dietary adjustment could be a game-changer for heart patients. Increasing potassium levels cuts the risk of dangerous heart rhythms by nearly a quarter, according to new research.
Participants in the treatment group had their potassium levels raised to 4.5 to 5.0 millimoles per liter (mmol/L) through diet, supplements, and/or medication.
The treatment was conducted in patients who had an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), which is a surgically implanted device larger than a pacemaker, a more common implantable device.
A pacemaker is a small, surgically implanted device that helps regulate a slow or irregular heartbeat by sending electrical impulses to maintain a steady rhythm. An ICD, on the other hand, monitors the heart and delivers an electrical shock to correct dangerously fast heart rhythms, which can prevent sudden cardiac arrest.
Over an average follow-up of 3.3 years, patients who maintained higher potassium levels experienced significantly better outcomes, according to the results recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The main goal was to see if the approach could reduce episodes of dangerous heart rhythms, hospitalizations, or death.
Key Study Findings
The study focused on patients with implanted ICDs. Patients started the trial with normal and low baseline levels of potassium at 4.3 mmol/L or lower.
The patients then raised their potassium levels either through diet, supplementation, or medication. Raising and maintaining a high-normal potassium level of 4 to 5 mmol/L had a 24 percent reduction in risk of serious heart rhythm problems.Potassium is needed to create heartbeats, therefore low potassium levels can lead to irregular heartbeats.
A major outcome was that there were fewer emergency interventions from implanted defibrillators—15.3 percent in the higher-than-normal potassium group versus 20.3 percent in the control group.
Hospitalizations for arrhythmias and heart failure were also less common among those with higher potassium levels.
Regarding safety, hospitalizations due to very high or very low potassium levels occurred in 1 percent of both groups, and deaths were reported in 5.7 percent of the high-normal group compared to 6.8 percent in the controls, a difference that the researchers didn’t consider statistically significant.
Dr. Carolyn Lam, a cardiologist and senior consultant at the National Heart Centre Singapore, who pioneered the first Women’s Heart Clinic in Singapore, and was not involved in the trial, told The Epoch Times that the findings apply specifically to patients who have implanted defibrillators, are at high risk of ventricular arrhythmias, and have a starting potassium that is not higher than 4.3 mmol/L.
Lam said that potassium levels have a “U-shape relationship” with health outcomes, meaning that both high and low levels can lead to adverse events.
“Thus, it is important that patients know their potassium levels before simply applying these results to themselves,” she said.
What The Findings Mean for Patients
Although the study was conducted only in patients who already had an ICD, Professor Henning Bundgaard, senior author of the study, said in a statement that the findings may be applicable to many patients, especially those who have cardiovascular disease associated with a high risk of ventricular arrhythmia.
Dr. Ian J. Neeland, an associate professor of medicine at Case Western Reserve University and director of University Hospitals Center for Cardiovascular Prevention, who was not involved in the trial, said that patients should discuss strategies with their doctor to keep potassium levels in the high-normal range. Patients should be sure to take drugs that help the body hold onto potassium, he said, which includes Spironolactone and eplerenone, according to current guidelines for patients with implanted cardiac devices.
Some foods that increase potassium include bananas, raisins, prunes, broccoli, potatoes, and tuna.
Neeland added that patients should also alert their doctor if they develop any conditions that could acutely lower their potassium levels, such as diarrhea or vomiting.
“They should work with their doctor to find the best strategies to keep potassium in the high-normal range,” he said.
* * *
Nope, we don’t sell potassium (yet). Carry on.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
ROBERT H
Optimism
By nature we are all Optimists. And yet we are taught to plan for the worse but expect the best. And sometimes success comes inspite of matters that deem otherwise.
Globally, today one sees signs of optimism in many corners of the globe while pessimism in many others and concludes that this is simply the way the world works with ebbs and flows.
However periodically the rise of war casts a dark shadow to bring old memories and conversations to mind of the horrors of madness that comes with war. As many people tell with the first shot the plans go out the window. And the natural course of survival gets in to change and challenge the human spirit.
As we watch this slow walk to expanding war we should remember that the world is interconnected and nothing exists in isolation. Decisions made are decisions acted upon that cannot be changed as the natural condition of force having a direct response of equal force comes in a hurry. Thus it matters not that the Netherlands seized a private company called Nexperia recently to prevent China from stealing crucial technical knowledge. Yes, Nexperia has facilities in Europe, but the largest chipmaking facility is in China. Thus, more likely than not, technology is already in China. This action has completely backfired because as demand increases for technological chips. China can now replace the European facilities directly in China. This is called economic warfare, using the concept of the free market as cannon fodder. Sadly other repercussions having to do with capital flows are already underway. As Private Holders of Capital take note that the right of ownership of private assets is easily decided by a court at whim and not law. It matters not that this was done with US influence. What matters is the action takenand the repercussions that will now vibrate through Europe. Already Capital is revisiting a word called RISK as in country risk. And the notion of FREE MARKET has died in Europe for all to see. And not just China. Already people are rethinking Europe as a investment. And yes, capital is free to move and discussions to divert future capital movement is already underway in physical discussions.
In the same context for many days we’ve heard of talk of Tomahawk missiles being supplied to the Ukraine. Tomorrow Zelensky will be in Washington to meet with Trump to get a final approval. NATO has already approved this. If one were to watch and listen to the talk in Moscow today and late yesterday, even at a parliamentary level, the talk is war. War that demands a clear response to upcoming escalation. It matters not what we as peons in this adventure think. What matters is decisions made, and actions taken. Because clearly the drums of war are beating louder and as the drums beat, the march towards a much wider conflict runs unabated. Decisions will have consequences. However as with the 1st shot on a line of contact the response is not known until it is delivered. While one might imagine a response maybe non nuclear. As shots fire, escalation comes quickly and there is no telling where this goes.
We should all keep in mind that there are reasons why precious metal markets, like gold and silver are in a runaway mode because they are harbinger of what is to come. Have no illusions that Moscow will stay silent and not respond to the use of Tomahawk missiles. Simply because there is no way these missiles can be used without American consent and guidance using satellites. And it will not matter whether they carry nukes as they no doubt can and will be targeted to hurt and destroy material assets of Russia. the Russians will not know if these missiles will carry nukes. Once in flight and detected Russians must assume that this is a threat to their existence as a COUNTRY and not a special military operation as is taking place in Ukraine. Have NO illusions they will react, especially with public statements being made with their parliamentarians. Such statements are both a warning and expression of public sentiment.
As I have often written, when all else fails they take us to war. And it would appear that a wider conflict will start in the not too distant future. And as bystanders we can only watch and pray for the best.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, October 6-13, 2025
Diane Keaton; actor Jimmy Shaw; casting director Jackie Burch (C); Nickelodeon exec Leigh Anne Brodsky; jazz composer Jim McNeely (C); bassist Omar Cardenas; drummers Ace Finchum, Thommy Price; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 15 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Diane Keaton Put Her ‘Dream Home’ up for Sale as Health ‘Declined Very Suddenly’ in Recent Months
October 11, 2025
Diane Keaton’s health had taken a sharp turn in recent months. “She declined very suddenly, which was heartbreaking for everyone who loved her,” a friend of the Oscar winner — who died on Oct. 11 at age 79 in California — tells PEOPLE exclusively. “It was so unexpected, especially for someone with such strength and spirit.” The source adds, “In her final months, she was surrounded only by her closest family, who chose to keep things very private. Even longtime friends weren’t fully aware of what was happening.” Keaton had made at least one major lifestyle change in recent months: In March, she listed her beloved “dream home,” surprising many after she said she had planned to remain there permanently.
Researcher’s Note – Keaton was working in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link
No cause of death reported.
After a long battle with cancer, the famous American actor Jimmy Shaw has passed away
October 12, 2025
The world acting guild has suffered a heavy loss: the famous American actor Jimmy Shaw has died at the age of 60. The artist, beloved by viewers for the cult Spanish series “La que se avecina” and many Netflix projects, passed away after a prolonged battle with a serious oncological disease. As BAKU.WS reports, citing the actor’s management agency, the sad news of his death was announced today. Jimmy Shaw, who was 59 years old, had been courageously fighting pancreatic cancer for a long time, showing incredible resilience in the face of the illness. His passing has become a great loss for colleagues and fans around the world who knew him for his charisma and bright talent. In recent years, Shaw actively worked on both sides of the Atlantic – in both Madrid and Los Angeles, and also regularly performed on the theatrical stage, demonstrating his versatile talent and dedication to art.
Researcher’s Note – September 16th, 2025: Our dear friend Jimmy has been courageously battling pancreatic cancer for almost 3 years now. In the fall of 2023, Jimmy bravely underwent an attempted Whipple surgery in Barcelona. Unfortunately, during the procedure, the surgeon discovered that the tumor’s involvement with a major artery made the operation too complex to safely complete: Link
Shaw was working in Hollywood between 2021-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: Link
Legendary casting director Jackie Burch, who put together the famed five of The Breakfast Club, has died
October 13, 2025
Jackie Burch, a prolific Hollywood casting director who put together memorable ensembles for multiple motion pictures – most notably the 1985 John Hughes drama The Breakfast Club – has died at the age of 74. Burch passed away in Atlanta on Sunday following a battle with endometrial cancer, her friend Gail Goldberg said in a statement obtained by Deadline.
Researcher’s Note – Burch passed away at her Atlanta home after a four-month fight with cancer: Link
Leigh Anne Brodsky Dies: Longtime Nickelodeon & Discovery Licensing Exec Was 67
October 9, 2025
Leigh Anne Brodsky, a veteran Nickelodeon licensing executive who helped lead the development and growth of such iconic characters as SpongeBob SquarePants, Dora the Explorer and the Blue’s Clues crew, has died. Brodsky died Friday, Oct. 3 in New York City of complications from dementia, her family revealed. She was 67.
Grammy-Winning Jazz Composer Dies at 76
October 10, 2025
It was reported by The New York Times on Thursday that jazz composer Jim McNeely passed away on Sept. 26 in his Manhattan home. The news was announced and confirmed by his daughter Claire, who said he passed away due to bile duct cancer, a rare type of cancer that affects the tubes that carry bile from the liver to the small intestine. He was 76 years old. McNeely was a composer-in-residence for the Vanguard Jazz Orchestra [NYC] from 1978 to 1984, then again from 1996 until his death. He was also the chief conductor of the Frankfurt Radio Big Band from 2010 to 2022, and composed for jazz orchestras all throughout Europe. In addition, he served as the musical director of the BMI Jazz Composers Workshop for the past 14 years, where he mentored young writers and musicians.
Researcher’s Note – New York City to mandate vaccines [sic] for indoor restaurants, gyms, performances: Link
Grammy-nominated Tejano Musician Omar Cardenas Passes Away
October 13, 2025
The Tejano music community is mourning the loss of Omar Cardenas, a talented and beloved musician who recently passed away. The Grammy-nominated bassist, known for his work with La Diferenzia and The Cardenas Project, was celebrated for his deep passion for music and unwavering love for family. Cardenas, who spent decades performing across the Midwest and Texas, was a fixture in the Tejano scene. As a member of the Grammy-nominated group La Diferenzia, his bass lines helped shape some of the genre’s most memorable sounds. Later, he continued performing with his family band, The Cardenas Project, keeping his musical legacy alive through every note.
No age or cause of death reported.
Former Tigertailz drummer Ace Finchum dead at 62
October 11, 2025
We are saddened to report, according to Metal Sludge, former Tigertailz drummer Ace Finchum passed away over the weekend of October 4th at the age of 62. Finchum’s final Facebook post appeared last Saturday (4th), reading: “I wish all my friends a great weekend! I don’t know if I will come back as I hoped I would. Times are hard and I’m trying to hold on!” Finchum, who had been living in the U.S. in recent years, was part of the classic TIGERTAILZ lineup. The group became one of the few UK glam metal acts to find international success, often compared to Mötley Crüe, L.A. Guns, and Poison.
No cause of death reported.
Thommy Price, drummer with Joan Jett and Billy Idol, dies aged 68
October 11, 2025
Thommy Price, the drummer known for his work with Joan Jett and Billy Idol, has died at the age of 68. The news was confirmed by his wife Stefunny, who said he passed away on Friday (October 10) and called him “a devoted husband and proud father and powerhouse drummer and songwriter”. Price was born in Brooklyn, New York, in 1956 and also played with Scandal, Mink DeVille and Love Crushed Velvet. He also played on studio records by a range of artists, including Roger Daltrey, The Waterboys, Blue Oyster Cult, The Psychedelic Furs, Ronnie Spector and Debbie Harry. No details have been revealed about his cause of death, and he is survived by his wife Stefunny and daughter Brooklyn.
Sister-in-law of Mitt Romney found dead in Valencia parking garage
October 13, 2025
A sister-in-law of former U.S. Sen. And Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was found dead Friday night in a Valencia parking garage, according to the Los Angeles County [CA] Sheriff’s Department. Authorities responded at about 8:30 p.m. Friday after receiving reports of someone dead inside the garage in the 24500 block of Town Center Drive in the community north of Los Angeles. The woman jumped or fell from a five-story parking structure and died at the scene, law enforcement sources told NBC4 Investigates. She was identified by the medical examiner’s office as 64-year-old Carrie Elizabeth Romney. No cause of death was listed Monday afternoon. The death does not appear to involve foul play, authorities said.
Susan Kendall Newman Cause of Death: Daughter of Paul Newman Passes Away Unexpectedly
October 9, 2025
Susan Kendall Newman [72], the daughter of screen legend Paul Newman, has reportedly passed away: News of Newman’s passing comes courtesy of an obituary — apparently written by a close friend or family member — that appeared in the New York Times earlier this week. According to the obituary, Susan “passed away on August 2, 2025, from complications from chronic health condition.” She is described as “a lifelong philanthropist and social activist devoted to civil rights, conservation education, and anti-war and nuclear disarmament efforts.” Beginning her career as an actress, Susan appeared alongside her father in the 1977 comedy classic Slap Shot. She went on to appear in several on- and off-Broadway productions before landing a starring role as an obsessive Beatles fan in the 1978 Robert Zemeckis film I Wanna Hold Your Hand.
No cause of death reported.
Eastern Poker Open High Roller Champ Jordan Fishman Passes Away
October 12, 2025
The poker world received sad news Saturday night upon learning that Jordan Fishman, a popular poker player on the East Coast, passed away two days after suffering an unexpected cardiac event.
No age reported.
A colorectal cancer advocate “died suddenly” of colorectal cancer:
Remembering Alison Friedman: A champion for access, equity, and hope
October 8, 2025
The Colorectal Cancer Alliance mourns the passing of Alison Kiehl Friedman [46], a tireless advocate, policy leader, board member, mom, wife, and beloved member of our community, whose impact will continue to shape our mission for years to come. Diagnosed [in January of 2023] with stage IV colorectal cancer at just 43 years old, Alison faced the unimaginable with clarity and conviction. Even as she navigated her own treatment, she was determined to confront not only cancer itself but also the systemic barriers that too often determine who gets care — and who doesn’t. Alison understood that survival shouldn’t depend on privilege, proximity, or luck.
Three journalists “died suddenly”:
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END
GE: gov’t minister Patrick Schnieder collapses at cabinet meeting; IT: Mayor Ferdinando Nociti collapses at the polls; SK: newsman Han Seok-jun collapses, loses memory
Chile: goalie Patricio Toledo, 63, has heart attack mid-match; UK: rugby’s Lewis Moody has motor neuron disease; CH: actor Zhang Jin, 51, recovering from “sudden heart attack”; more
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 16 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
JAMAICA
Future Fambo suffers ‘mild heart attack’
October 5, 2025
Veteran dancehall artiste Future Fambo [53] reportedly had a mild heart attack on Sunday in New York which triggered a response from FDNY ambulance personnel. He posted a 28-second video of himself on Instagram where he was lying on a sofa clad in only his underpants, hooked up to wires while FDNY medical personnel worked feverishly to stabilise his vitals. The deejay, who has been diagnosed with diabetes, said he had complained of “washing with cold sweat” after eating cornmeal porridge, and his friend called an ambulance to assist. “I hadn’t eaten for two days because I had been traveling from Sacramento on Thursday and I delayed five hours in Vegas, so I didn’t get to New York until early in the morning, so I didn’t eat,” the artiste, whose real name is Warren Gladstone Williams, told Observer Online. He added: “So when I drank the porridge, cold sweat start wash me, vision blurry, and yu caan help yourself, so my friend called the ambulance so the medical personnel coulda assess me.” Future Fambo, who is now recovering at home, said the ordeal was a big scare but assured his fans and friends that he was “alright now”.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
CHILE
Former Chilean Goalkeeper Patricio Toledo Suffers Heart Attack During Tribute Match
September 29, 2025
A frightening incident struck Chilean football on Sunday during the tribute match “Adiós capitanes,” organized by Universidad Católica. Former goalkeeper Patricio Toledo, 63, collapsed on the pitch after suffering a heart attack and required immediate resuscitation before being rushed to the hospital, the club confirmed in an official statement. Toledo had been active in the game, making a save only moments before falling unconscious. Players quickly signaled for medical assistance, and medical staff performed emergency procedures on the field. Universidad Católica later reported that Toledo had suffered an acute myocardial infarction. He was transported to a hospital, where doctors performed an angioplasty. Hours later, the club confirmed Toledo was “stable and conscious,” a relief for fans who had feared the worst.
UNITED KINGDOM
Former England rugby captain Lewis Moody says he’s been diagnosed with motor neuron disease
October 6, 2025
Former England rugby captain and World Cup winner Lewis Moody has been diagnosed with motor neuron disease, he announced on Monday. The 47-year-old, who was part of England’s 2003 Rugby World Cup winning team, learnt of his diagnosis two weeks ago, he told the BBC while sitting alongside his wife, Annie. He first noticed a “shoulder weakness” a couple of months ago that didn’t go away even after a course of physical therapy, he said. After being referred to a shoulder specialist, he underwent an MRI scan that identified signs of MND, often referred to as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) since almost 90% of MND patients have this form of the disease. “It came as a fairly sizeable shock to all of us,” Moody said. “In myself, I feel absolutely fine. You’re given this piece of information, you’re given this diagnosis of MND or ALS and it’s a huge piece of information to absorb and deal with and we’re rightly quite emotional about it. But it’s so strange because I feel like nothing is wrong. I don’t feel ill, I don’t feel unwell.”
Gemma Atkinson gives a health update on her daughter Mia, six, after she was diagnosed with epilepsy
October 2, 2025
Gemma Atkinson gave a health update on her daughter Mia on Thursday after she was diagnosed with epilepsy. The actress, 40, shares Mia, six, and son Thiago, two, with her Strictly Come Dancing fiancé Gorka Marquez, 35. Sharing a post to her Instagram Story, she confirmed that she was ‘now absolutely fine’ despite the ‘scary time’ they went through 18 months ago. Gemma wrote: ‘Morning everyone, just jumping on to address the recent headlines regarding Mia. I was recording an episode of my podcast last month and in a relaxed environment with mates I mentioned her health during a topic we were discussing. To put this into context, Mia’s diagnosis was something we dealt with privately almost 18 months ago. This isn’t recent and I’m pleased to say she’s now absolutely fine. She’s thriving and doing everything in life she wants to do.’
Gemma previously explained on her Just As Well, The Women’s Health Podcast that Mia is currently receiving treatment for epilepsy after experiencing loss of awareness which causes her to zone out. Absence seizures are a type of epileptic seizure, where you briefly lose awareness of what’s going on around you. The former Hollyoaks actress explained that medical professionals advised her to put Mia on a keto diet, to help improve her overall brain health.
GERMANY
German transport minister collapses during cabinet meeting
September 30, 2025
German Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder [57] was taken to hospital on September 30 after collapsing during a Cabinet meeting in Berlin, government spokesman Stefan Kornelius confirmed. Schnieder, a member of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), recovered quickly but was hospitalised as a precautionary measure for further examination, Caliber.Az reports per German DP. The incident occurred during the first day of a two-day Cabinet retreat in the capital, where ministers are discussing the country’s faltering economy. Schnieder was notably absent from the official group photo taken at the event.
ITALY
Domenico Sportelli suffers sudden illness, rescued by helicopter
October 5, 2025
The match between Corleto and Invicta Matera in the Promozione championship was suspended in the 15th minute of the second half, with the score at 0-1 due to illness affecting Invicta manager Domenico Sportelli. Rainews reports that “after being rescued by ambulance, he was transferred by helicopter to Potenza hospital for all the necessary tests.”
No age reported.
Illness at the polling station in Spezzano Albanese: Mayor Nociti assisted during the vote
October 5, 2025
Moments of great concern this morning in Spezzano Albanese: Mayor Ferdinando Nociti was taken ill at the polling station of the elementary school in Piazza della Vittoria. Emergency services from the Misericordia di San Marco Argentano and doctors Bartolomeo and Guido responded promptly, and the mayor was taken to Castrovillari hospital for checkups. The episode was reportedly caused by a drop in blood pressure, in the context of feverish symptoms he had already experienced on Saturday.
No age reported.
CHINA
Zhang Jin shows promising recovery after heart attack, enjoys casual outing with wife Ada Choi in Hong Kong
October 3, 2025
Hong Kong – Celebrity power couple Ada Choi and Zhang Jin [51] have offered a heartening public glimpse into their lives, following a period of major health anxiety for the family. The pair were spotted enjoying a low-key moment together in a Tsim Sha Tsui shopping mall, with Zhang Jin appearing robust and healthy just months after a serious cardiac scare. The sighting comes after Zhang Jin himself revealed earlier this year that he suffered a sudden heart attack. The actor and martial artist disclosed that the incident occurred while his wife, Ada, and their three children were merely metres away, yet he was unable to call out for help. The emergency necessitated an urgent return to Hong Kong, where he underwent a successful procedure to have a heart stent fitted.
SOUTH KOREA
Broadcaster Han Seok-jun Collapses, Loses Memory; No Major Health Issues
September 30, 2025
Reporter-Broadcaster Han Seok-jun [50] revealed that he collapsed with his memory cut off, causing concern, but it was reported that there was no special health issue. Han Seok-jun said on the 30th, “I am grateful for today,” adding, “Last week, I suddenly collapsed at home. My memory was cut off.” Han Seok-jun explained, “When my wife woke me up, I couldn’t tell if I had woken from sleep or returned from death. There was blood everywhere, and I couldn’t speak properly. I was taken to the emergency room, had a brain scan, and received treatment for the torn area.” He continued, “I am much better now, but looking back, it was a close call. If my wife hadn’t been there, if I had been alone—any of the countless ‘what ifs’—this moment might not exist. That’s why I am so grateful to be breathing right now.” The agency stated, “There is no major health issue. He likely hit his head while collapsing, causing a temporary memory lapse. There is no special problem.”
‘I’m fighting quietly day by day’: Single’s Inferno star Cha Hyun-seung diagnosed with leukemia
September 29, 2025
Former Single’s Inferno and Physical: 100 contestant Cha Hyun-seung has revealed that he has leukemia. The 34-year-old dancer and actor posted about his cancer diagnosis on his Instagram on Saturday (Sept 27), writing that his life had come to “an abrupt halt” back in early June when he was rushed to the emergency room. “Until then, I had passed the final audition for all the projects I’d dreamt of and was running towards my goals — but a diagnosis of leukemia brought everything to a stop.” Hyun-seung added that he initially couldn’t accept his diagnosis and couldn’t tell anyone, “filled with fear and confusion” every day. “Now, with time, I finally feel ready to speak honestly,” he continued. “I’m currently undergoing treatment, fighting quietly day by day.” Accompanying his message was a series of photos of Hyun-seung’s hospital journey.
Lee Dong-gun Diagnosed with Rare Autoimmune Condition on ‘My Little Old Boy’
September 29, 2025
Actor Lee Dong-gun has been diagnosed with a rare autoimmune condition. On the Sept. 28 episode of SBS’s “My Little Old Boy,” the actor visited a hospital looking visibly concerned. He told the doctor his right eye had been bloodshot and painfully sensitive to light, with vision in that eye markedly reduced ― symptoms that have persisted for more than a year. The physician explained the signs pointed to uveitis, which can trigger eye pain, light flares and blurred vision. Given how long the symptoms have lasted, the doctor added they could be tied to a rheumatic disease called ankylosing spondylitis. Ankylosing spondylitis is a progressive inflammatory arthritis that can cause the spine to stiffen if left untreated. On the show, it was described as rare in Korea, affecting roughly 1% of the population ― news that left the panel of celebrity moms visibly worried. Reviewing X-rays taken that day, the doctor said the images suggested stage 2-3 inflammation out of four and, considering the full picture, diagnosed ankylosing spondylitis. Lee also tested positive for a gene associated with the condition, though he said there’s no known family history. The doctor noted that while this is uncommon, a genetic predisposition means lifelong management is crucial. Even when symptoms ease, neglecting care can lead to complications, the physician warned.
No age reported.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Cui Bono? Et tu John? Leake (McCullough’s team) hits it out the park with this one striking DEEP into enemy territory; why? because POTUS Trump’s physician just ~ told America to go take more Malone
Bourla Pfizer et al. deadly mRNA vaccine, that’s why! “Why Are Vaccine & War Cartels So Strong? President Trump does PR work for Pfizer and contemplates sending Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.”
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 16 |
That is what the announcement was mean to portray, that it was ok so go take more mRNA shots. It is ok, the POTUS just doubled up and even took the worthless OAS garbage flu shots that can NEVER EVER work or confer any protection to the upper respiratory tract. So he is the leader and best informed so follow him. And do not mind the evidence it is and has been deadly. Forget that. Does not matter…
Let me preface this thesis by reminding you, I do support POTUS Trump and do see good in him and he represents the best option for USA. The COVID OWS response was a complete disaster (did not work and harmed) and continues to be especially any aspect of the Malone Sahin Bancel Moderna et al. mRNA vaccine.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
One big corrupt Ponzi slush fund kick-back QUID PRO QUO enrichment scheme…this thing called US congressional house and Senate. Corrupt bastards, the whole lot. save a few. A band of high-crime bandits. Thieves. Using government contracts to enrich with congressional BAG-MEN…All we do at election time is play musical chairs and re-arrange them, the bandits…same horses, just different saddles.
It is very clear now (COVID helped clarify this) that the Phamaceutical-industrial complex and the military-industrial complex is tow in the same…both are the same entity. I mean, realistically, you cannot run a clandestine or otherwise biological weapons program and research without having a simultaneous vaccine arm to inoculate yourself against the deadly pathogen (s) you are mocking around with without the proper safety in place. Moreover, we are seeing that in this America, everything is for sale. In our face. They just do not care.
John Leake joins me in dismay. Leake is cutting against the corrupted grain, and I applaud him, bravery.
Moreover, Leake is doubly concerned and I stand with him, and ask the question, that by giving Tomahawks to Ukraine, that could or could not be nuclear tipped, armed, would Putin be well-positioned to think his nation is and could be under NATO etc. nuclear threat? How insane is this now…I mean very batshit crazy!
Well done, John, hat-tip for you for you are basically saying that we the American people are defenseless against the interests of what is fastly becoming a fascist USA…where big Pharma with the Outlaw Josie Susie Wales is running the health system and policy even when the body of evidence is that the mRNA vaccine is deadly. How could the WH and Trump’s physician tell us he took another COVID booster? cui bono? what was the value added except for vaccine makers to cash in and the American people to be harmed??? how come? who looks out for Americans then?
How could RFK Jr. (Bobby Jr.) as head of HHS remain silent when we CREATED him and gave him money to defend us against the mRNA vaccine? has RFK Jr. sold out? Does the Outlaw have RFK Jr.’s testicles completely in her hands? How could dufus Makary and he is a clear FDA head dufus, remain silent? what did you get the FDA job? you have done NOTHING. worthless in that post. what other evidence does this clown need? What about Bhattacharya? why the silence? was it just about a job? you Oz? Mr. ‘Chip under your skin’ for all Americans? or you Prasad? you people are just shameful baseless people, pimped the Freedom Movement for years taking donor money when you were no different than those harming the nation e.g. pharma. you straddled the fence and played a game, learning form the con man fraud Malone, top dog fraudster, top grifter…but it is now clear. your interests rests in you, your pocket, your salary. you could not give a shit about Americans.
Start Leake here and support him, great work:
‘In the last few weeks, President Trump has:
1). Hosted Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla at the White House and thanked him.
2). Declared that he received a COVID-19 booster shot.
3). Encouraged Ukraine to keep fighting the Russians, and offered to sell NATO all the weapons it wants for the fight. Given that the U.S. is by far the largest member of NATO, with by far the most command and control of the organization, this can only be viewed by Russia as further U.S. escalation.
4). Declared that he is contemplating giving Tomahawk long range missiles to Ukraine. Given that Russia cannot ascertain if an incoming Tomahawk is armed with a conventional or nuclear warhead, it can only perceive such a decision is going a major step up the escalation ladder towards tactical and strategic nukes.’
___
NEWSWIZE
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Fool Me Once…
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 10:25 AM
By Bas van Geffen, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist
The US-China trade war is flaring up again, and the US government is still shutdown. But it’s also earnings season and we have AI deals, so stocks are going higher. How long will that last? And if the S&P 500 suddenly does become sensitive to the unravelling of international relations and global trade, who caves first?
According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, it won’t be the US government. They will not negotiate with China, just because the stock market is going down. That’s easy to say when markets are still going up, but will they stick to it? In any case, such statements do not exude confidence.
Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer noted that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths show that China cannot be trusted with the global supply chain: “It’s an exercise in economic coercion on every country across the world.” The Treasury Secretary concluded that if China cannot be a reliable partner, then the world must decouple.
Considering that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths will give that decoupling an extra nudge, why is the US so unhappy? At the same time, Bessent floated the possibility of a longer deferral of US tariffs on Chinese goods, in return for a delay to Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earths. If China’s supply of rare earths and magnets has been so unreliable despite an earlier agreement between the two countries, then why is Bessent willing to try again?
In the eyes of the Trump administration, things are perhaps moving in the right direction. Even if they are, things are certainly moving too fast for the US and the global economy. But remember, the stock market will not affect the US’ position in the negotiations with China. Neither will potential supply chain disruptions, or economic damage.
Nonetheless, Bessent did offer China another offramp: he suggested that, perhaps, the vice minister of Commerce had “gone rogue.” The US Treasury Secretary added that he “believes China is open to discussion,” and said he was “optimistic that this can be de-escalated” thanks to the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.
Trump, however, declared that the US and China are now in a sustained trade war. So, will Bessent’s suggestion of new trade truce get Trump’s approval? And are Chinese officials willing to entertain negotiations, while the US lambasts them at the same time? Will Beijing drop its own vice minister to restart the talks? China did not take the offramp provided by Trump last weekend either.
As the tensions between the US and China re-escalate, the Trump administration’s tactics are becoming less and less covert. The Dutch minister of Finance denied that there had been any US involvement in the unprecedented move to take control of Nexperia, but court documents indicate that the US had in fact warned the Netherlands months earlier that the company could be put on the entity list, subjecting it to US trade restrictions.
Add outright election interference to that. Yesterday, Bessent said that the US would arrange another $20 billion support for Argentina, as the country tries to overcome a liquidity crisis. But will that support be conditional on Milei winning the mid-term elections later this month, just like the $20 billion swap line might be? Trump has certainly suggested that: “I’m with this man because his philosophy is correct […] And if he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone.”
But we’ll undoubtedly have another AI-deal somewhere, soon.
Equities may continually post gains, gold is too. The metal has surpassed $4,200 per troy ounce, in what has been coined the “debasement trade.” The IMF warned that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, which would be the highest since the aftermath of World War II.
The IMF suggests that governments “spend smarter,” as debt servicing costs are rising: “Redirecting public spending toward infrastructure, education, health, and research and development, without increasing overall spending, can deliver significant long-term gains in output,” which would in turn improve debt sustainability.
Yet, many countries have now realised that there are a couple more items to add to that list, including defence, critical resources, and industry.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Iraq Sets Deadline To End Dependence On Iranian Gas, Under US Pressure
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said he aims to end Iraq’s $4-billion dependence on Iranian gas by early 2028, outlining a plan to recover flared gas and attract foreign investment during an interview with CNBC published Tuesday.
“We developed a clear vision to address this structural imbalance that affects our ability to generate and produce electricity and provide it to citizens,” Sudani told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Baghdad.
He said Iraq had signed investment deals with TotalEnergies, Chinese, and Emirati companies to capture and process gas currently burned off at oil sites. “For the first time in Iraq’s history, there is a clear plan and daily action to resolve this issue, with a deadline of early 2028 set for zero gas flaring,” Sudani said.
Gas supplied by Iran powers around one-third of Iraq’s electricity, yet years of neglect, graft, and inadequate investment have crippled the national grid, leaving citizens dependent on expensive, heavily polluting private generators.
Sudani said his administration is pursuing a “multi-pronged” approach, involving cooperation with Chinese, Russian, European, and US companies, alongside Gulf partners.
The prime minister said Qatari investments in Iraq have exceeded $5 billion, while Saudi and Emirati firms are financing several ventures, including a Masdar agreement to generate 1,000 megawatts (MW) of power. “Our economy and our relations have never been one-sided,” he said.
However, renewed western sanctions on Iran pose new challenges to Baghdad’s energy strategy. In August, European powers triggered the snapback mechanism, restoring restrictions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. The move could further tighten Washington’s financial oversight of Baghdad, already accused of allowing Iranian-linked transactions.
According to Al-Araby al-Jadeed, senior Iraqi officials said the US is now demanding Baghdad “disengage from Iran,” prosecute resistance leaders, and reform its financial and judicial systems. “The Iraqi financial sector, both public and private, is now under near-total oversight by the US Treasury,” an Iraqi diplomat said.
The Coordination Framework coalition, which includes several Iran-aligned factions, warned that US pressure could serve as a pretext for Israeli strikes inside Iraq. China’s growing presence in Iraq’s energy sector reflects the same diversification drive al-Sudani outlined.
On September 23, Iraq Business News reported that China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPP) signed a $2.5-billion contract with the Basra Oil Company to build a 950-kilometer seawater distribution network across southern Iraq.
Beijing’s expanding footprint also includes TotalEnergies’ Artawi field expansion and PowerChina’s $4-billion desalination project in Basra.
Executives from four Chinese oil firms told Reuters their combined production in Iraq is set to double to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, signaling Beijing’s accelerating expansion in OPEC’s second-largest producer.
END
OIL PRICING
WTI Hovers Near 5 Month Lows After India Confusion, Record US Production
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 12:07 PM
Oil prices are flat this morning (holding near five-month low) amid mixed signals on President Trump’s push to stop India’s purchases of Russian crude, his lengthy ongoing talks with President Putin, and a surprisingly large crude inventory build reported by API last night.
India’s oil refiners said they expect to reduce – not stop – the purchase of Russian crude, a move that could squeeze global supply, following remarks by Trump that the South Asian nation would halt all buying.
Bloomberg reports that Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd Managing Director Mundkur Shyamprasad Kamath told an analyst conference call Thursday that he was “confident” his company would continue buying Russian oil.
“We are not trying to slow down or anything,” he said when asked how he sees US push to stop Russian oil buying.
“For us it is business as usual, with respect to sourcing. We are sourcing those Russian barrels that is available today.”
India has flip-flopped between defying the US and crimping Russian imports in response to pressure from Washington to cut back.
The decisions India ultimately takes are vital for Moscow, which needs petrodollars to help fund its war in Ukraine.
Still, the market is awaiting clarification on the situation from the government in New Delhi, which didn’t officially confirm or deny Trump’s remarks.
Trump didn’t set out a timeline for India to wind down purchases of Russian oil, or give any indication of how Washington might enforce or scrutinize the shift, but said that the buying wouldn’t stop immediately.
The development took some air out of the earlier rally, with traders newly assured that the halt to India’s imports of Moscow’s crude won’t be immediate.
We will see shortly whether the official data confirms API’s notable build.
API
- Crude +7.36mm
- Cushing: -978k
- Gasoline: +3.0mm
- Distillate: -4.8mm
DOE
- Crude +3.524mm (+300k exp, +2.3mm whisper)
- Cushing: -703k
- Gasoline: -267k
- Distillate: +4.529mm – biggest draw since Jan
he official crude build of 3.52mm barrels was modest (and well below the huge 7.4mm barrel build reported by API). That is the 3rd weekly build in crude stocks in a row (and 3rd weekly draw in stocks at Cushing). Distillates inventories plunged by 4.53mm barrels – the biggest draw since January – perhaps affected by the El Segundo refinery fire
Source: Bloomberg
Including the 760k barrel addition to the SPR, last week saw one of the largest weekly builds in total US crude inventories of the year…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude production rose once again, to a new reocrd high at 13.636mm b/d…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI is testing back near 5-month lows…
“Inventory builds have now eclipsed 2024 build pace by +220 (million barrels), with pressure pushing on the seaborne market. Nearly all regions are seemingly under selling pressure,” Brian Leisen, global oil strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.
END
THEN THIS AFTERNOON
Trump Says India Agreed To Stop Buying Oil From Russia
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 11:45 AM
Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump announced on Oct. 15 that India has pledged to stop purchasing oil from Russia within a short period, a decision that would help cut off funding for Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
“Within a short period of time, they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a press conference.
Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave him the assurance on Oct. 15.
“That’s a big stop,” Trump said. “Now [I’ve] got to get China to do the same thing.”
Trump has repeatedly accused India and China of buying Russian crude oil and funding Moscow’s aggression in Eastern Europe.
“We were not happy with him buying oil from Russia, because that lets Russia continue on with this ridiculous war,” Trump said of Modi.
On Aug. 6, Trump issued an executive order raising the tariff rate on Indian goods entering the United States to 50 percent.
Trump pointed to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil as justification for the significant increase in levies on the nation’s exports.
In recent years, India has become one of Russia’s most important trading partners, with annual bilateral trade rising to nearly $69 billion.
The rapid increase in trade has been fueled primarily by energy purchases.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, India’s annual crude oil imports from Russia hovered at about $1 billion. But since the war began, imports have skyrocketed, reaching $25.5 billion in 2022, $48.6 billion in 2023, and $52.7 billion in 2024, according to the U.N. Comtrade database.
Experts at the Observer Research Foundation think tank estimate that India accounts for more than one-third of Russia’s crude exports, behind China’s 50 percent share.
“Indian refiners have temporarily ramped up Russian crude imports, without any visible signs of concern emerging from the political leadership,” the foundation wrote in a report.
The United States has accused India of reselling Russian oil on the open market, allegedly further benefiting Russia.
“India’s subsequent reselling of this oil on the open market, often at significant profit, further enables the Russian Federation’s economy to fund its aggression,” Trump’s executive order reads.
In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Modi signed a flurry of trade and arms deals. Putin and Modi also signed nine agreements related to trade, research, and climate action in July 2024.
According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was almost $46 billion in 2024, representing a 5.9 percent increase from 2023.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
Overthrow: Trump Authorizes CIA Covert Ops Targeting Venezuela’s Maduro
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 04:40 PM
It is easy to imagine that there’s been CIA infiltration into Maduro’s Venezuela for a long time, but covert operations there are now becoming an “open secret” – as fresh Wednesday reporting in the New York Times indicates. “The Trump administration has secretly authorized the C.I.A. to conduct covert action in Venezuela, according to U.S. officials, stepping up a campaign against Nicolás Maduro, the country’s authoritarian leader,” the Times writes.
Already the Pentagon has been engaged in what could be interpreted as more overt acts of war in regional waters – the targeting of boats off Venezuela accused of being engaged in narco-smuggling operations. Clearly anti-Maduro operations are picking tempo, and ratcheting the temperature.
At this point after five instances of drone attacks on these boats, at least 27 people have died. The Trump administration has alleged the drug traffickers are operating with the blessing and oversight of socialist strongman Nicolas Maduro, which Caracas vehemently rejects.
The US military has further maintained a significant military build-up in the Caribbean, including some 10,000 troops, over several weeks. According to more details from the new NY Times report:
The authorization is the latest step in the Trump administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against Venezuela. For weeks, the U.S. military has been targeting boats off the Venezuelan coast it says are transporting drugs, killing 27 people. American officials have been clear, privately, that the end goal is to drive Mr. Maduro from power.
The new authority would allow the C.I.A. to carry out lethal operations in Venezuela and conduct a range of operations in the Caribbean.
But the below part is somewhat surprising and alarming, given the unpredictable and dangerous implications of the CIA acting “unilaterally”:
The agency would be able to take covert action against Mr. Maduro or his government either unilaterally or in conjunction with a larger military operation. It is not known whether the C.I.A. is planning any operations in Venezuela or if the authorities are meant as a contingency.
But the development comes as the U.S. military is planning its own possible escalation, drawing up options for President Trump to consider, including strikes inside Venezuela.
What is the end-goal here?
Many observers have speculated that it is nothing short of regime change in the Latin American nation known for having the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels.
The NYT actually provides a blunt answer in agreement with the regime change assessment:
The Trump administration’s strategy on Venezuela, developed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with help from John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, aims to oust Mr. Maduro from power.
Mr. Ratcliffe has said little about what his agency is doing in Venezuela. But he has promised that the C.I.A. under his leadership would become more aggressive. During his confirmation hearing, Mr. Ratcliffe said he would make the C.I.A. less averse to risk and more willing to conduct covert action when ordered by the president, “going places no one else can go and doing things no one else can do.”
Below: F-16s reportedly scramble from Venezuela’s El Libertador Air Base in response to US B-52 bombers nearby…
And yet it must be remembered that Trump has constantly touted himself as the “peace” president who solves wars and doesn’t start them.
But now, as the NY Times says, there is a highly classified presidential finding which seems to authorize government overthrow in Caracas.
President Trump at the start of this month formally notified Congress this week that the US was entering a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels. Trump’s rationale for the attacks on drug boats in his memo to Congress stated that the cartels are “non-state armed groups” whose actions smuggling drugs “constitute an armed attack against the United States”.
In particular the administration has essentially declared war on the Tren de Aragua cartel, and says it is cooperating with the Maduro government, which Caracas has rejected, and so the presence of the cartel’s members in the US is a “predatory incursion” by a foreign nation. In this way he’s trying to cast this as an ‘America First’ policy, and yet if bombs start falling on yet another foreign country which has not militarily attacked the United States, few Americans are likely going to buy it.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1656 UP 0.0011 PTS OR 11 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 151.20 UP 0.212 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3437 UP .0034 OR 34 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4038 DOWN 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.02 PTS OR 0.10%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 22.09 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.83%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 22.09 PTS OR 0.09%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.02 POINTS OR 0.10%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.83 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP A HUGE 605.02 PTS OR 1.27%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4231.55
silver:$52.91
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.35 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.951% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.666% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 1/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.124 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.093 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.363 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.578 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1655 UP 0.0007 OR 7 basis points
USA/Japan: 151.14 UP 0.155 OR YEN IS DOWN .16 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5290 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.327 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0004 OR 4 BASIS pts to 1.4050
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1255 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1283
TURKISH LIRA: 41.86 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.666 UP 1 basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.124 DOWN 4 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.046% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.613 DOWN 0 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.512 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 4253.00
SILVER AT 1;00: 53.07
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 11.34 PTS OR 0.12%
GERMAN DAX: UP 90.82 pts or 0.58%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 111.99pts or 1.39%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 75.50 pts or 0.48
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 467.48or 1.12%
WTI Oil price 58.63 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.08 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.87 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 22/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.113 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.683 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1691UP 0.0045 OR 45 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3433UP .0031 OR 31 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5004DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3000 DOWN 5 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.654 UP 1/2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.124 DOWN 4PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.35DOWN 0.634 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4056 UP 0.0010 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 57.47
Brent OIL: 60.98
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 3.971
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 PTS to 4.580%
USA 2 YR BOND 3422: DOWN 8 PTS AT 3.504%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3..080 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.652 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.10 DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.834GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.49 DOWN 0 AND 49/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,293,50(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 53.65 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 301.07OR 0.65%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 89,11 PTS OR 0.36%
VOLATILITY INDEX 24.77UP 4.04 PTS OR 19,32%
GLD: $ 396.45UP 9.06 PTS OR 2.34%
SLV/ $49.17 UP 0.840 PTS OR OR 1,74%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 175,38 PTS OR 0.57%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
“A Lot Of Moving Parts”: Another New Record For Gold Amid Chaos In Bonds, Stocks, & Crypto
trading new york stock exchange:
WRAP UP FOR THE DAY
Risk-off trade on regional banking woes – Newsquawk Market Wrap
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 04:12 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US regional bank concerns gain momentum, led by WAL and ZION; JPM’s Dimon is not so sure on market’s view that everything will be fine; Trump and Putin view phone call as positive, to meet in Hungary; US Philly Fed unexpectedly signals contraction; China says all rare earth licenses applications for civilian use will be approved; Fed’s Waller makes the case for a 25bps cut in October, but data dependent thereafter; French PM survives both rounds of no confidence motion as expected; UK GDP matches expectations, Services & Mfg output beat; Australian unemployment rate moves higher; EIA crude stocks show bigger-than-expected build; TSMC top Q3 expectations
- COMING UP: Data: EZ HICP Final (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP. Suspended Release: US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep). Speakers: RBA’s Hauser; BoE’s Pill, Greene, Breeden; Fed’s Musalem; ECB’s Nagel. Supply: Australia. Earnings: Ally Financial, SLB, American Express, State Street, Volvo AB.
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MARKET WRAP
Risk-off trade was seen on a reignition of regional banking woes after Western Alliance (WAL) and Zion Bancorp (ZION) announced exposure to bad loans tied to fraud, adding to the concerns following the collapse of Tri-Color and First Brands. The regional banking woes saw KRE close lower by over 6%, while the financial sector saw a near 3% hit. The downside in US banks hit sentiment with equities sliding throughout the US session, while havens were supported. Gold rose above USD 4,300/oz while T-notes rallied across the curve, led by the front-end, with money markets starting to price in more rate cuts from the Fed. In FX, the Dollar was sold in response, while CHF and JPY outperformed. Crude prices also tumbled throughout the session in the risk-off environment, hitting lows following a positive read on both sides following the phone call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump, who will hold high-level staff meetings next week before a Presidential meeting in Hungary. Attention turns to the Zelensky meeting with Trump on Friday. Elsewhere, Fed speak saw Governor Waller call for a 25bps cut in October, but suggested decisions thereafter will depend on data, which led to some initial T-note selling before the banking woes ignited an FTQ bid. Governor Miran continued to leave a dovish message. Data saw the Philly Fed business activity headline tumble, but internals were better. Back to equities, Tech managed to squeeze out marginal gains despite all other sectors in the red, supported by positive Oracle (ORCL, +3.1%) commentary. Elsewhere, French PM Lecornu survived the no-confidence motions. On China, China’s Commerce Ministry said it took a constructive stance during recent talks, noting the critical minerals export controls will not impact civilian use. The Foreign Minister also said that decoupling from the US is not a rational choice, and called for effective communication to resolve differences. However, after the close on Wednesday, Trump said that the US is in a trade war with China.
US
PHILLY FED: Philly Fed’s summary of Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed. Headline Business Index of general activity plummeted to -12.8 from +23.2, well below the +8.5 forecast, more than offsetting last month’s increase. However, internals offset some of the drop in activity. New Orders rose to 18.2 from 12.4, shipments index declined but remained positive, and the Capex index rose to 25.2 from 12.5. Employment saw a slight drop to 4.6 from 5.6, but continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Prices Paid picked up to 49.2 from 46.8. Prices received also moved higher, with both indices remaining elevated. The six-month outlook index rose to 36.2 from 31.5, suggesting widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
FED’S WALLER (voter): Waller maintained the view that cutting rates is the right thing to do, with not much changing in the last six weeks. That said, Waller notes he doesn’t want to make a policy mistake, suggesting moving carefully in 25bps increments. He stated that based on the current data, a 25bps cut is justified in the upcoming October meeting – labour market sending clear warnings that the Fed should be ready to act – with easing beyond dependent on data. The Fed Governor sees neutral at around 100-125bps lower than the current FFR, but sees a slower path of rate cuts if GDP holds up or the job market speeds up. Waller argues that you should see downward pressure on mortgages if the Fed continues to cut the policy rate. Waller referenced the latest Fed Beige Book, saying it did not show that things are rosy and booming. Waller said GDP may weaken at the end of the year, inflation estimates are now around 2.5%, with nothing that seems set to jump. On tariffs, tariffs are having a modest inflation impact, and inflation is on track for 2%, Waller contended. Tariffs don’t appear to be depressing growth.
FED’S MIRAN (VOTER): The Fed Governor doesn’t see a recession as a result of renewed US-China tensions. Miran continues to believe the Fed should cut 50bps, but expects they will cut by 25bps. He expects growth of around 2% for 2025, while for 2026, growth could hinge on how China-US tensions are resolved. On rates, Miran said risks emerging in this past week have increased the urgency for rate cuts. For neutral, he argues that rate cuts are needed because of passive monetary policy tightening and improved inflation outlook.
FED’S BARKIN (2027 voter): Barkin said demand remains solid, particularly among those with higher incomes; Clear that businesses are planning to pass along what tariffs they can. He noted that productivity seems to be increasing, which could offset some cost pressures. On labour, Barkin said there has been a noticeable shift in the job market; executives note there are lots of applicants for every position.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 16+ TICKS HIGHER AT 113-24
T-Notes catch FTQ bid as regional banks are slammed. At settlement, 2-year -8.0bps at 3.426%, 3-year -8.2bps at 3.429%, 5-year -8.2bps at 3.548%, 7-year -7.8bps at 3.740%, 10-year -7.2bps at 3.973%, 20-year -6.0bps at 4.549%, 30-year -5.8bps at 4.581%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +0.4bps at 3.218%, 3-year BEI -3.6bps at 2.579%, 5-year BEI -3.4bps at 2.322%, 10-year BEI -2.5bps at 2.260%, 30-year BEI -1.5bps at 2.210%
THE DAY: T-notes bull steepened on Tuesday in risk-off trade as regional bank woes hit the broader market and bolstered rate cut bets. T-notes traded sideways in the morning until a speech from Fed Governor Waller was met with several chunky block sales. The Governor alluded to further easing of 25bps in October, but said cuts beyond October will depend on the data. Nonetheless, T-notes then reversed in a flight to quality bid as regional banks were slammed. Western Alliance (WAL) and Zion Bancorp (ZION) disclosed bad loans tied to alleged fraud, adding to recent credit concerns following the bankruptcies of Tri-Color and First Brands. JPMorgan CEO Dimon earlier in the week warned that “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more”. The regional banking ETF (KRE) tumbled on Thursday amid the WAL and ZION news, while financials were the clear sector laggard. The downside in banking stocks hit risk sentiment as these credit concerns mount, somewhat reminiscent of the SVB collapse and its impact on regional banks and risk sentiment at the time. T-notes pushed higher to settle at peaks supported by the banking woes.
Elsewhere, in funding markets, it is worth noting that SOFR has risen above the top end of the Federal Funds target range of 4.00-4.25%, sparking liquidity concerns. Usage of the Reverse Repo facility at the NY Fed (where participants park excess cash) has diminished drastically recently, back to c. USD 5bln from the roughly USD 200bln figures seen in July. With excess cash seemingly scarce, usage of the standard repo facility (where participants borrow extra cash from the Fed) has accelerated in recent sessions, rising to USD 8.35bln today, from USD 6.75bln on October 15th – both above the Q3 quarter-end spike of USD 6bln, and rising to the highest levels since 2020.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on October 22nd and USD 26bln of 5-year TIPS on October 23rd; all to settle October 31st
Bills
- US sells USD 8-wk bills at a high rate of 3.960%, B/C 2.91x; sells USD 4-wk bills at a high rate of 4.030%, B/C 2.79x
- US Treasury to sell USD 86bln of 13-week bills and USD 77bln of 26-week bills on October 20th, to sell USD 95bln of 6-week bills on October 21st; all to settle October 23rd.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 26bps (prev. 24bps), Dec 53bps (prev. 48bps), January 69bps (prev. 62bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 7bln (prev. 5.5bln) across 11 counterparties (prev. 20)
- EFFR at 4.10% (prev. 4.10%), volumes at USD 81bln (prev. 80bln) on October 15th.
- SOFR at 4.29% (prev. 4.19%), volumes at USD 3.059tln (prev. 2.932tln) on October 15th.
- Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support, 7-10yr coupons, Max. USD 4bln.): Accepts USD 192mln of USD 10.44bln offered, offer to cover 54.36x.
CRUDE
WTI (X5) SETTLED USD 0.81 LOWER AT USD 57.46/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.85 LOWER AT USD 61.06/BBL
The crude complex settled lower after a notable sell-off amid global risk-off sentiment on potential regional banking woes. Through the European morning, benchmarks edged higher to hit highs of USD 59.11/bbl and 62.75, respectively, before heading lower amid no clear catalyst but as US/China rhetoric once again intensified. USTR’s Greer said China is taking actions as if it wants to decouple, with China’s Commerce Ministry overnight noting it took a constructive stance during recent trade talks. Thereafter, WTI and Brent sold off and saw another leg lower to intra-day troughs as Trump said he is speaking to Putin, the conversation is ongoing, a lengthy one, and he will report the contents. As markets awaited the outcome, continued global risk off was seen, albeit with no clear headline driver, but US regional banking woes were seemingly at the forefront, which intensified WTI and Brent moves to session lows of USD 57.26/bbl and 60.84, respectively. Thereafter, further pressure arrived from Trump, who spoke positively on the phone call with Putin, believing great progress was made, and that there would be a meeting between US/Russia officials next week, and then he would meet with Putin in Hungary; Krelmin’s take on the call matched that of Trump’s. Some support, albeit fleeting, arrived for crude prices, whereby Trump said, “If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them”. For the record, in the weekly EIA data, crude saw a larger build than expected, in fitting with the private metrics, while distillates and gasoline both drew more than anticipated. Overall, crude production rose 7k to 13.636mln.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.63% at 6,629, NDX -0.36% at 24,657, DJI -0.65% at 45,952, RUT -2.09% at 2,467
SECTORS: Financials -2.75%, Energy -1.12%, Utilities -1.03%, Consumer Discretionary -0.88%, Consumer Staples -0.78%, Industrials -0.59%, Materials -0.56%, Communication Services -0.45%, Real Estate -0.30%, Health -0.11%, Technology +0.13%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.89% at 5,655, Dax 40 +0.38% at 24,273, FTSE 100 +0.12% at 9,436, CAC 40 +1.38% at 8,189, FTSE MIB +1.12% at 42,374, IBEX 35 +0.48% at 15,646, PSI +1.08% at 8,341, SMI +1.25% at 12,686, AEX +0.40% at 959.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Regional Banks (KRE) tumbled led by losses in Western Alliance (WAL) and Zion Bancorp’s (ZION). ZION announced it faces charges due to bad loans to a couple of borrrowers, while WAL alleged a borrower had committed fraud. The developments follow the collapse of First Brands and Tri-Color, thus increase credit fears.
- Apple (AAPL) head of AI-driven web search, Ke Yang, is leaving for Meta (META).
- TSMC (TSM): Profit & operating margin beat; lifted FY revenue growth & better than expected next quarter outlook.
- Salesforce (CRM): Announced financial targets for the next 5 years.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Weaker than exp. FY26 profit view at its analyst day.
- United Airlines Holdings (UAL): Revenue missed.
- J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT): Q3 results exceeded expectations.
- Becton Dickinson (BDX): Prelim Q4 revenue missed & announced CFO transition plan.
- Nio (NIO): Government of Singapore Investment Corporation filed a lawsuit against the Co.
- US Bancorp (USB): Top & bottom-line surpassed Wall St. expectations.
- Travelers (TRV): Net premiums written & book value per shr. missed; note, EPS & rev. topped.
- Brighthouse (BHF) reportedly in talks for a sale to Sixth Street at roughly USD 55/shr, according to Reuters, citing sources, deal would value the insurer at roughly USD 3.1bln.
- xAI is reportedly working on a USD 20bln lease-to-own deal for NVIDIA (NVDA) chips, according to The Information.
- Oracle (ORCL) co-CEO said the distributed cloud segment has non-GAAP gross margins of 40-60% and this part of their business is growing rapidly. Distributed cloud offering is growing 77% Y/Y with an average deal size of USD 67mln. AI infrastructure saw 117% growth Y/Y in Q1 FY26. Cloud infrastructure revenue expected to be USD 166bln by FY 2030.
- Datadog (DDOG) to explore fresh takeover bid for GitLab (GTLB), StreetInsider reports.
FX
The Dollar Index was sold on Thursday as jitters over US regional banks sparked a global risk-off trade, resulting in JPY, CHF, and EUR strength. Concerns surrounding US regional banks grew (on top of First Brands & Tricolor bankruptcies), after it emerged that Western Alliance has a lawsuit against the same defendants named in Zions Bancorp’s recently disclosed case of misrepresentations and contractual defaults by the borrowers and obligors, as well as other irregularities. The underperformance in financials had its toll on the FX market, sparking a general risk-off tone, bolstering gold’s already strong intraday rally. The development clouded out other, yet important global developments. China’s commerce ministry said it took a constructive stance during the US-China trade talks and all rare earth license applications for civilian use will be approved. At the Fed, Miran (voter) continues to argue for easing in 50bps increments, Waller (voter) laid out the case for a 25bps cut in October, while Barkin (2027 voter) says there has been a noticeable shift in the job market, and executives note there are lots of applicants for every position. Meanwhile, Trump and Putin had a phone call, with both parties speaking positively about the outcome and indicating an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Hungary. The latest US data saw the Philly Fed Business Index unexpectedly tumble into contraction, weighed down by poor business conditions. DXY now trades ~98.30 from earlier highs of 98.706.
G10FX price action was split; CHF, JPY, and EUR outperformed as preferred USD alternatives in the US risk-averse environment. At the BoJ, Assistant Governor Shimizu made the case for a cautious approach when proceeding with policy normalisation, given the uncertain environment around domestic and global trade policies. Meanwhile, Tamura also advocated for caution and said they will closely monitor FX market developments. BoJ Governor Ueda spoke in late trade, noting his view on the global economy has not changed much, but will adjust the degree of monetary support in accordance with the likelihood of growth and inflation forecasts materialising. USD/JPY saw lows of 150.23 from earlier peaks of 151.39.
GBP saw strength against the dollar with GDP in August, matching expectations of a +0.1% reading, while Services Y/Y and Manufacturing Output M/M topped forecasts. Cable now sits around 1.3430 from earlier 1.3394 lows.
AUD was the notable G10 laggard after a poor September jobs report, which unveiled lower job growth than expected (14.9k vs exp. 20k) as well as a downward revision to the prior month’s reading (from -5.4k to -11.9k), leaving job growth basically flat over the last two months. The unemployment rate jumped more than expected to 4.5% (exp. 4.3%, prev. 4.2%, rev. 4.3%), albeit some of the move would have been a function of the increase in the participation rate. AUD/USD sits near the lows of 0.6472. Elsewhere, NZD/USD and USD/CAD were little changed.
USA DATA RELEASES FOR TODAY
Philly Fed Survey Signals ‘Widespread Expectations For Growth’, Lower Inflation
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 – 09:00 AM
After yesterday’s surge in the New York Fed’s Manufacturing survey (showing strong new orders and employment), this morning we get their neighbor – the Philly Fed’s – manufacturing survey data… and it’s, umm, quite different…
The survey’s index for current general activity fell significantly and turned negative (-12.8 vs +10.0 exp), more than offsetting last month’s increase.
Source: Bloomberg
However, while the headline sentiment index tumbled, the survey’s future indicators suggest “widespread expectations for growth over the next six months“ according to the Philly Fed…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, while the headline sentiment signals tumbled, rather confusingly we see the new orders index rose and the employment index ticked down but continued to reflect overall increases in employment.
Source: Bloomberg
And one more item of note, both future price indexes declined – The future prices paid index declined 10 points to 59.8, and the future prices received index fell 19 points to 45.7…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that in this month’s special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures next year. Almost 36 percent of the firms expect to increase total capital spending, compared with 19 percent expecting to decrease total spending; 45 percent expect total spending to stay the same.
As you would expect, expectations for higher capital expenditures were most widespread for computer and related hardware, noncomputer equipment, and software.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
this spells trouble!!!!!!
Regional Banks Crash As More Credit “Cockroaches” Emerge
THURSDAY, OCT 16, 2025 – 01:50 PM
Just when the market was starting to finally freak out – with a one month delay – about the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcy following yesterday’s fingerpointing session between JPM’s Jamie Dimon and various private credit firms in which both accused each other of harboring more credit “cockroaches“, this morning the credit freak out went to 11 as two regional US banks crashed after they both disclosed problems with loans involving allegations of fraud, adding to concern that more cockroaches are indeed emerging in borrowers’ creditworthiness.
Shares of Zions Bancorp plunged 10% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-offfor a loan underwritten by its wholly-owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust, in San Diego. And Western Alliance Bancorp tumbled as much as 11% after it said it’s dealing with a borrower that failed “to provide collateral loans in first position.” i.e., there was fraud, just like in the First Brands case.
If that wasn’t enough, Western Alliance also said it also has exposure to the collapse of auto-parts supplier First Brands Group.But, and clearly nobody believed this, it doesn’t expect the issue to change its 2025 outlook. Yeah right.
It will be ironic if WAL barely survived the 2023 banking crisis only to be destroyed because it failed to do due diligence on its clients a few years later.
“There have been a number of ‘one-off’ credit events that a number of banks have previewed going into the quarter,” Terry McEvoy, an analyst at Stephens Inc., said in an interview. “They have not gone unnoticed by bank investors.”
The news slammed the broader regional index.
As Bloomberg notes, even if each of the credit event are isolated, banks taking losses from bad loans are making headlines more often in the past two months. After the bankruptcy of sub-prime auto lender Tricolor Holdings last month, JPMorgan wrote down $170 million and Fifth Third Bancorp wrote down as much as $200 million.
Meanwhile, the investment bank at the center of the entire First Brands saga, Jefferies, continues to get crushed, and at last check was down over 8%.
Hollywood Panics As Celebrities Face Replacement By AI Generated Actors
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 11:00 PM
The growing opposition in Hollywood to AI generated “actors” is in many ways similar to the growing feminist fury over AI girlfriends: If you’re a good actor (or a good woman), then you should have no fear of being replaced. If you can’t compete with a robot or software for the affections of the masses, then perhaps you deserve to lose your exalted position in society.
AI design is not particularly impressive (at least not yet). Characters are graphically realistic but the Uncanny Valley effect is ever present; the human mind processes them as off-putting in most cases and making an entire film using them would require extensive input from human CG artists. Still images and short clips are effective enough, but this is not film making.
By extension, AI fiction writing is not improving and is truly terrible. Storytelling requires an intuitive grasp of plot beats, a deep understanding of the nuances of human psychology and interactions, as well as a creative ability to surprise the audience with something unexpected while still (in most cases) wrapping up the plot in a way that is satisfying.
Anything more than a basic synopsis and AI scripts turn into a rambling, confusing mish-mash of ideas copied from more intelligent creators and slopped onto the page. In other words, AI writes scripts much like the typical woke leftist screenwriters now infesting the film industry.
And this is why Hollywood is scared – They have been getting away with mediocrity for so long they have forgotten how to make a good movie. They are so bad at their job that they could actually be swapped for software.
In terms of acting, it’s unlikely that solid performers will ever be retired to the dustbin or unable to get work because of AI. Movie goers will always know in the back of their minds that they are watching CG people with no capacity for real emotion. However, if film companies continue to fill their actor stables with soulless, robotic or narcissistic egomaniacs, then the public may welcome the robot overlords as the new standard for cinematic entertainment.
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) is very unhappy with the recent release of an AI acting model called “Tilly Norwood”. The union condemned reports that talent agents are looking to sign the artificial intelligence “actor” for representation. They argued in a statement that Tilly Norwood “is not an actor, it’s a character generated by a computer program that was trained on the work of countless professional performers.”
SAG is highly aggressive in its tactics, including intimidation tactics against actors that don’t support their strikes, which helps to explain why they are up in arms about AI generated characters. A computer created actor can’t be controlled by a union. It can’t be censured or blacklisted or threatened. Film studios facing a long term SAG strike could simply replace the actors with AI models for a time, forcing the unions to settle negotiations.
“It has no life experience to draw from, no emotion and, from what we’ve seen, audiences aren’t interested in watching computer-generated content untethered from the human experience,” the union said.
To be frank, this is what most of the movie watching populace has been saying about Hollywood for the past several years. They really have no room to criticize.
Maybe more concerning is OpenAI’s new Sora 2 tool which allows users to put real people and characters into AI-generated videos, sparking immediate backlash from Hollywood studios and talent agencies. The dispute centers on who controls copyrighted images and likenesses, with the actors asserting that OpenAI cannot use content without explicit permission or compensation.
There is a legitimate danger of AI products being used to exploit a person’s likeness for nefarious purposes. A face and voice can be stolen and repurposed to draw undeserved revenues, or it can be used in an attempt to fake an event, destroy a person’s reputation, turn the person’s “essence” into a marketing mascot, etc.
For now, the only thing AI seems to be good for is making memes which almost no one mistakes as real.
“We’re engaging directly with studios and rightsholders, listening to feedback, and learning from how people are using Sora 2,” Varun Shetty, OpenAI’s vice president of media partnerships, said in a statement. “Many are creating original videos and excited about interacting with their favorite characters, which we see as an opportunity for rightsholders to connect with fans and share in that creativity.”
AI in entertainment is an inevitability. The most at-risk sectors are, of course, animation, effects and CG programming. If the average person with minimal software or animation experience can use AI to formulate Pixar-like characters and place them in scripted scenarios, then that person will only be limited by their imagination and ability to write great stories. At the very least, CG animators will face considerable competition and will be forced to up their game as job opportunities decline.
Movies studios, by extension, will no longer have a monopoly on film production and distribution. They won’t disappear, but the tools for regular people making movies and shows at home will cut into Hollywood’s already diminishing profits. Just as online content on platforms like YouTube is crushing legacy media, online independent entertainment content is going to punish Hollywood for its lack of talent.
Ultimately, the ideologically progressive industry brought this doom on itself. The public is longing for meaningful and creative escape, and Hollywood refuses to give it to them. Instead, Tinsel Town has become the bullhorn for the woke agenda, forever browbeating the population with insipid propaganda no one wants. Eventually, the free market is going to replace these ideologues, and if AI helps, then people will welcome it.
END
When Do We Truly Own Anything? The Property Tax Scheme That Keeps Us Paying Forever
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,
Texas is famous for its wide-open land, its independence, and its promise of freedom. Yet the truth is that Texans pay some of the highest property tax rates in the country. The state itself doesn’t collect property tax, but local governments make up for it many times over. Even with agricultural and wildlife exemptions, the real burden still falls on commercial buildings, apartment complexes, and single-family homes—the very places where most people live and work.
Every year, I write a check for twenty-four thousand dollars in property taxes. In Texas, over half of that typically goes toward public education—sometimes up to 70 percent in certain counties. The irony is that none of it goes toward educating my own children.
I homeschool my kids. On our farm, we built a small barn with electricity, air conditioning, and a nearby restroom.
My husband and I teach our children farming, entrepreneurship, and money management. We hire a teacher three days a week for reading, writing, and math, and a tutor for additional help with reading.
We pay entirely out of pocket for all of it. Yet each year, I’m still forced to pay tens of thousands of dollars to fund a system I fundamentally disagree with.
I don’t believe the public school system nurtures creativity, curiosity, or courage. It creates workers, not thinkers. It rewards compliance, not conviction.
I often joke that I don’t co-parent with the government, but in truth, the property tax system makes me do exactly that. It forces me to contribute to a system that, in my view, often indoctrinates children rather than inspiring them. It feeds them food I consider unhealthy and trains them to fit in rather than think for themselves.
Last year alone, my property tax bill increased by eleven thousand dollars. I paid extra to bring electricity and internet to our rural property. I maintain the land, the buildings, and the utilities myself.
Yet every year, I have to pay again just for the right to keep what I already own. Even if I pay off my mortgage, I will still have to pay property taxes.
That means I never truly own my home. The government can raise taxes whenever it wants, and if I can’t pay, it can take the property away.
How is that ownership? How is that freedom?
Some states, like Florida, are exploring ways to phase out property taxes altogether. If that ever happens, people will move there in droves. Because this isn’t just about money. It’s about ownership, autonomy, and legacy. How can we build generational wealth or pass down land to our children if the government can simply tax us out of it?
And it doesn’t stop with homes. Texas, like California, taxes what’s called “business personal property.” That includes machinery, equipment, furniture, fixtures, and even inventory—all the physical items a business uses to operate. Each year, business owners are required to list and report these assets to the county so they can be taxed. It is essentially a yearly penalty for owning tools of your trade.
When I owned a restaurant in California for ten years, assessors would come in every year to evaluate my kitchen equipment. They decided my stoves, ovens, refrigerators, and furniture were worth seventy thousand dollars year after year, even though they were old, worn out, and often in need of replacement. Their justification was “replacement rate,” meaning they taxed me based on what it would cost to replace the equipment, not on what it was actually worth. So I paid taxes on the theoretical cost of replacing items I already owned. What service exactly is the government providing for my stoves, fryers, and refrigerators that justifies an annual payment? None. Yet they collect anyway.
And even when you sell a property, they still find a way to come after you. When I sold my house in Ventura County, California, all the taxes were paid through escrow at closing. I thought I was done. But months later, the county sent me a new bill for five thousand dollars based on “updated assessments” they claimed to have made from looking at the interior photos from my real estate listing. They called it a supplemental tax. I call it an exit tax. They are still trying to collect on a property I no longer own.
Property tax is marketed as a way to fund communities, but in reality, it is a perpetual lease from the state.
You never stop paying for something you thought you owned. That is not ownership. That is modern feudalism, dressed up as civic duty.
What if we did things differently? What if every family took responsibility for educating their own children, or chose who they wanted to pay to do it? What if communities were funded transparently and voluntarily, instead of through coercion? Perhaps then, we could finally reclaim what is ours—our homes, our businesses, our freedom.
Until that day, we are all tenants on the land we supposedly own.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 16, 2025 Issue 7599 | Independent View of the News |
| Jamie Dimon Says It’s Semi-Rational to Own Gold “I’m not a gold buyer — it costs 4% to own it,” Dimon said Tuesday at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington. “But it could easily go to $5,000 or even $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.”… “Asset prices are kind of high,” Dimon added, noting that “in the back of my mind, that cuts across almost everything at this point.”… (And G. William Miran wants to aggressively cut rates!) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/investment/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-it-s-semi-rational-to-own-gold/ar-AA1Ov3BC Bessent Floats Longer Tariff Truce for China Rare Earth Delay – BBG Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high US tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing putting off its recently announced plan to tighten limits on critical rare earths… “Is it possible that we could go to a longer roll in return? Perhaps. But all that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks.:… https://news.bloomberglaw.com/international-trade/bessent-floats-longer-tariff-truce-for-china-rare-earth-delay US Equities Surge After Bessent, Greer Suggest Hope for De-Escalation with China “I believe China is open to discussion, and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated ultimately. We are confident in the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi. We’ve had substantial communication with the Chinese over the past few days, and we believe that there will be more forthcoming this week,” Bessent said… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-equities-surge-after-bessent-greer-suggest-hope-de-escalation-china Miran Says Trade Uncertainty Makes Fed Rate Cuts More Urgent “There’s now more downside risks than there was a week ago, and I think it’s incumbent upon us as policymakers to recognize that should get reflected in policy,” Miran said Wednesday during an event organized by CNBC. Higher uncertainty around trade policies between China and the US have introduced a “new tail risk,” he said… (DJT stooge Miran’s stupidity is ineffable.) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/international-trade/feds-miran-says-trade-uncertainty-makes-rate-cuts-more-urgent Treasury Secretary Bessent says a stock market decline won’t deter the U.S. from taking strong action against China (BS! Most everyone believes that Trump dreads stock tumbles!) Bessent pushed back on a report in The Wall Street Journal overnight that China “expects that the prospect of another market meltdown ultimately will force [President Donald Trump] to negotiate.” Chinese President Xi Jinping is “betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict” with China, the Journal reported, citing people close to Beijing’s decision-making… The Cabinet secretary called that report “terrible,” accusing the newspaper of taking “CCP dictation.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/treasury-secretary-bessent-stock-market-china.html Trump administration will set price floors across range of industries to combat China, Bessent says The U.S. has to use industrial policy to compete against nonmarket economies like China… The administration could take equity stakes in more companies… he said… “When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policy,”… “So, we’re going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again and we’re going to do it across a range of industries,”… The U.S. also needs to set up a strategic mineral reserve, Bessent said. JPMorgan Chase is interested in working with the Trump administration to create such a reserve, he said… (Bessent using China as excuse for US fascism/central planning!) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/trump-xi-china-bessent-price-floor-rare-earth-critical-mineral.html Bessent rips ‘unhinged’ Chinese trade negotiator and announces ‘price floors’ in latest pushback on Beijing – “There was a lower level trade person who was slightly unhinged here in August … threatening, saying China would unleash chaos on the global system if the US went ahead with our docking fees on Chinese ships, and this is something they clearly were planning all along,” Bessent said during CNBC’s “Invest in America” forum… https://trib.al/yTmW8Tp 500% tariffs on China soon? Bessent says 85 US senators ready to give Trump authority over Beijing’s Russian oil import 1:24 ET https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/500-tariffs-on-china-soon-bessent-says-85-us-senators-ready-to-give-trump-authority-over-beijings-russian-oil-imports-11760548182209.html People with gray hair or little hair recalled Nixon’s failed price controls and industrial policy of the early ‘70s that exacerbated US inflation and crimped the US economy. Gold and silver all-time highs; stock valuations at or near all-time highs; Team Trump and insanely inept Fed officials calling for rates cuts – now add price controls and industrial policy plus government buying and taking controls of companies – and you have the ingredients of Banana Republic economics. Reaganism undid US and the West’s Banana Republic economics. We are back to the future, see gold. @DonMiami3: This is the least pro-free market administration we’ve probably ever had, combining both equity market control & federal takeovers of US companies. Gold flips them off ESZs traded in a 14-handle, mostly positive, range from the Nikkei opening until they commenced a persistent rally at 22:12 ET that eventually hit a daily high of 6766.75 at 10:09 ET. ESZs then commenced a sharp decline that took them to a daily low of 6651.50 at 13:15 ET. Conditioned buying for Q3 earnings results energized the usual afternoon rally (after morning declines). ESZs hit 6721.50 at 14:59 ET. ESZs then rolled over and fell to 6695.75 at 15:56 ET. A late and illegal manipulation pushed ESZs to 6724.25 at 16:00 ET (a 28.50-point manipulation in 4 minutes!) Positive aspects of previous session US stocks early on Team Trum Trade Roulette. Fangs rallied sharply on buying for Q3 results. Negative aspects of previous session Gold and silver soared again. USZs fell as much as 13/32. Stocks reversed sharply after 10:09 ET. Team Trump Trade Roulette is a pernicious construct. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did Powell go fecklessly dovish because he fears something? How far with Team Trump bend over to appease China and prevent a stock tumble? Why were Fangs sold when normally they are aggressively bought for coming results? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6669.10 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6724.12; 6612.11 Brian Wesbury @wesbury: Powell says if he can’t pay banks to hold reserves the Fed would “lose control over rates.” That’s because the Fed has flooded banks with so many reserves they don’t trade federal funds anymore. The Fed just sets the rate wherever it wants. It’s “Price Fixing.”… If the Fed stopped paying interest on reserves it would be forced to reduce its balance back to a level where there were no excess reserves. The supply and demand for reserves and bank trading desks would once again influence rates. Powell says doing this could be disruptive. So, here is what I hear. We grew our balance sheet so much that we can’t unwind it without screwing up the system. This is exactly what Democrats are saying about COVID-era Obamacare subsidies. Now that they are in place, we can’t take them away without causing pain. This is no way to run a government. Keep making it bigger and more powerful and then say dismantling it will cause harm. Just stop. Stop it all. CARTS: Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary October 15, 2025 In the fourth week of September, the Weekly Index of Retail Trade was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis after decreasing 1.0% in the previous week. For the month of September, retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) are projected to increase 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and to increase 0.2% when adjusted for inflation… file:///C:/Users/William/Downloads/carts.pdf @NEWSMAX: “We won’t sell out the long-term security and future of the United States so that Chuck Schumer can prevent a primary challenge from his left wing. We will not be a part of that nonsense.” — House @SpeakerJohnson https://t.co/QBNkCJARV4 @RapidResponse47: @POTUS: “This is a Democrat-Schumer shutdown — and he’s trying to do it to get relevance back into the party because he’s a loser.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1978556928646156333 Bloomberg @business: A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to pause plans to fire thousands of federal workers during the government shutdown… @joma_gc: SCOTUS already ruled in AFGE v. Trump that he could proceed with mass layoffs across the federal government. This judge is saying she can overrule the highest court in the land. That’s not how our system works. Clear cut violation of judicial authority and a textbook case for impeachment. Trump: We’re in a trade war with China right now – BBG 16:26 (after the close, of course) Trump Touts Stock Market Gains (presser at WH) – BBG 16:39 ET @MauiBoyMacro: October 15, 2025 Bessent: Trump needs emergency powers to protect US economy.” Fed’s Miran: “We’re not in anything remotely resembling an emergency.” Today – Now that China has called out Trump on kowtowing to the stock market and effectively labeled him a ‘wuss’ on trade negotiations, what will Trump, Bessent, and Greer do now? If there’s one thing that Trump arduously defends and cherishes, it’s his ‘tough guy’ image. See his ‘official’ pictures. Trump Roulette is NOT a game for the faint of heart or the prudent to play! Nevertheless, the usual suspects will continue to play for the earnings season rally. ESZs are -2.75; NQZs are +11.00; Dec AU is +19.30; and USZs are -5/32 at 20:05 ET. Expected earnings: TRV 6.32, USB 1.12, CSX .43, BK 1.77, MMC 1.78 Expected Economic data: Sept Retail Sales 0.4% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.3%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; Sept PPI 0.3% m/m & 2.6% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Initial Jobless 230k, Continuing Claims 1.925m; Oct Phil Fed Business Outlook 10; Aug Business Inventories 0.0%; Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 33 Fed Speakers: Gov Waller, Gov Barr, and Gov Miran 9 ET, Gov Bowman 10 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6552; 100-day MA: 6350; 150-day MA: 6093; 200-day MA: 6059 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,646; 100-day MA: 44,588; 150-day MA: 43,400; 200-day MA: 43,46 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6671.06 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6445.33 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6834.79 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6595.85 triggers a sell signal White House reveals illegal migrants who received Medicaid as shutdown over healthcare drags on A White House spokesperson tells Fox News Digital that ‘Criminal illegal murderers and rapists received Medicaid at the American taxpayers’ expense’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-reveals-illegal-migrants-who-received-medicaid-shutdown-over-healthcare-drags @RapidResponse47: @VP nukes George Slopidopolous for obsessing over made-up Fake News BS while not asking a single question about the Democrat Shutdown: “Here’s, George, why fewer and fewer people watch your program...” George gets big mad, cuts @VP off, and goes to commercial. https://t.co/VVm2FV5ujd @POTUS: “You’re ABC Fake News. I don’t take questions from ABC Fake News. After what you did with Stephanopolous with the Vice President of the United States, I don’t take questions from ABC Fake News.” https://t.co/zq7e64SF3e @POTUS: “JD had a very nasty person interviewing him, and we can’t let that happen. It just is inappropriate to cut off a highly respected @VP mid-sentence… that was the only way he was going to win the argument.” https://t.co/aPC6PVjmKG Criminal Illegal Alien Kills 6 After California Police Ignore Detainer Request https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/10/14/ice-criminal-illegal-alien-kills-6-after-california-police @greg_price11: Justice Jackson just compared black people not being able to create majority black congressional districts to disabled people not being able to enter a building before the ADA. “They don’t have equal access to the voting system. They’re disabled.” https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1978490374931747289 (‘Blacks are disabled’ sounds like something from a KKK rally or pamphlet!) @Rightanglenews: DC Judge Kendra Briggs has allowed the two “teens” who jumped Edward ‘Big Balls’ Coristine to avoid jail and sentenced them to simple probation, stating her job is to “rehabilitate,” not punish. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1978478505231868087 @elonmusk: This was a racist verdict by a racist judge… Equal justice for all! Turley: If terrorizing neighborhoods and viciously attacking innocent people does not get you jail time before Judge Briggs, it is hard to imagine what would satisfy her threshold test for sentencing. Chicago Transit Authority violent crime hit its second-highest level since 2015, while the arrest rate dropped. CTA crime is threatening federal funding… https://www.illinoispolicy.org/cta-violent-crime-nears-decade-high-as-feds-threaten-funding-cuts/ Congress collected 30 million lines of phone data in Trump J6 probe, raising civil liberty concerns https://justthenews.com/government/congress/congress-collected-30-million-lines-phone-data-trump-j6-probe-raising-civil Kamala Harris Bizarrely Boasts She May Have Been ‘Most Qualified’ Presidential Candidate ‘Ever’ https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/kamala-harris-bizarrely-boasts-she-165221355.html | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Shut Up!’: Nancy Pelosi Snaps At Reporter Over Jan. 6 National Guard Accusation
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 06:50 PM
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) snapped at a reporter asking about her involvement in calling off the National Guard on Jan. 6, 2021.
“Congresswoman Pelosi, are you at all concerned that the new January 6th committee will find you liable for that day?” asked LindellTV’s Alison Steinberg.
“Are you at all concerned about the new January 6th committee finding you liable for that day? Why did you refuse the National Guard on January 6th?” she continued.
Pelosi whipped around and told Steinberg to ‘SHUT UP!’
“I did not refuse the National Guard. The president didn’t send it. Why are you coming here with Republican talking points as if you’re a serious journalist?” Pelosi shot back.
Of course, Pelosi herself admitted in a viral video that she was ‘responsible’ for the lack of preparedness on Jan. 6, 2021…
The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:
“We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous.
You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard?
Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?
…
They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”
…to which Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund said;
“Pelosi should take responsibility!” adding “She put herself in the security decision process and her Sergeant at Arms denied my requests for support before and during the Jan. 6 chaos. She undermined my law enforcement capabilities.”
Sund, who was in charge of the Capitol Police during Jan. 6, then asked “Why did they change the law (2US1970) that tied my hands?”
.Xcom/ChiefSund/status/1800657901133984049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1800657901133984049%7Ctwgr%5E56c71d5456b3ef7d4f7e426aedefc64c4832083b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fshut-nancy-pelosi-snaps-reporter-over-jan-6-national-guard-accusation
In 2023, Sund told journalist Tucker Carlson that Jan. 6 was a “setup” – noting that Pelosi’s staff refused to authorize the deployment of the National Guard at the Capitol despite his pleas, and that federal agencies withheld information and warning signs of potential dangers prior to the riot.
END
DC Judge Lets ‘Big Balls’ Attackers Walk Free
Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 – 07:15 PM
A Washington DC judge, Kendra Biggs, has let two teens who attacked former DOGE staffer ‘big balls’ walk free on probation, avoiding jail time because the judge feels her job is to ‘rehabilitate’ and not punish.
The decision drew sharp criticism from President Trump, who said Wednesday afternoon; “That’s terrible,” adding “the judge should be ashamed.”
The defendants, both 15-years-old, pleaded guilty to various charges related to the attack on the 19-year-old Musk protégé, Edward Coristine.
The male pleaded guilty to attempted robbery and simple assault – and felony assault and a robbery at a nearby gas station in a separate incident. The female attacker pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of simple assault for pepper-spraying someone in the separate gas station incident – for which prosecutors agreed to drop the assault charge from the ‘big balls’ incident.
US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro said the decision to sentence the pair to probation was “shocking.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt lamented on “The Charlie Kirk Show,” “One of the big issues in D.C. is these juveniles, they just get a slap on the wrist,” adding “This administration has a completely different philosophy. We need law and order.”
The two teens were part of a group wreaking havoc along a busy nightlife corridor in D.C. about a mile from the White House in the early hours of Aug. 3. No other juveniles have been charged. -WaPo
“The two of you were together with a larger group of younger people who decided to basically terrorize U Street,” Biggs told the teens during a hearing at DC Superior Court Tuesday afternoon.
The night of the incident, the two teens approached Big Balls and another person on Swann Street in Northwest Washington in the predawn darkness.
“Let me get your car! Let me get your car,” said the teens. While Coristine’s friend was able to jump in the car and lock the doors, the teens beat the shit out of Big Balls.
In a Wednesday night post on X, Coristine posted “This senseless crime must be stopped,” adding that many of the people involved in the attack remain on the streets, unprosecuted.
“That night could’ve gone far differently. Think of your daughters and mothers,” he wrote. “The same group attacked people before and after us, breaking ribs and stomping heads.”
The teens must perform 90 hours of community service, stay away from each other, and stay out of cars unless they have the owner’s permission.
Lol. LMAO even.
END
GREG HUNTER..INTERVIEWING BO POLNY
Silver Gold Record Highs Continue & No War – Bo Polny
By Greg Hunter On October 16, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis2 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
A little more than a month ago on USAWatchdog, Biblical cycle timing expert, geopolitical and financial analyst Bo Polny said, “Silver, this time around, is not just going to go through $50 per ounce, it’s going to go through it like a hot knife through butter.” With more than a 20% rise in the last 30 days alone, Polny was right. (Silver was around $40 per ounce on 9/10 when Polny made his call. It’s now more than $53 an ounce as I write this. Silver is up 80% since the beginning of 20025!) Polny is still predicting a “Silver Explosion Kills Babylon’s Financial System.” You ain’t seen nothing yet. Polny explains, “All you have is digits. Go into your bank, and if you have six digits in your bank account, try to pull out $100,000. They will say, ‘no way.’ They won’t let you pull out $100,000. They don’t have it in the account. This is called a bank run. We are about to see bank runs. We are starting to see bank runs on silver. . .. In 1980, silver touched $49 and change. In 2011, it was the same thing. It’s never ever touched $50 per ounce. It just did that last week, and it went through $50. It’s going to battle at $50 and pull back, and then it is going to explode. It’s going to explode and freak people out. Then we are going to see bank runs and people lining up to get gold and silver and specifically silver. It is going to get sold out everywhere. . .. Silver is the marker for the Jubilee. . .. Silver is the marker for the takedown of Babylon. . .. Silver is still the greatest buy in human history. It’s super cheap right now. Why? Money creation, let that sink in. . .. In the 1970’s, you could buy a new car for $3,000 or $4,000. They have created money out of thin air, and now, the entire world is enslaved. . .. The system is a total fraud. They have created money like lunatics out of thin air.”
Polny also says, “Bitcoin has just made a reversal, and it will make new all-time highs, big all-time highs. We are going to see a powerful move to the upside, and it will cause XRP to go up with it. Many other coins are going to go totally vertical with it. We get a very big move to the upside, and then we get a top. . .. The prophecy says ‘they fall in fall.’ There is going to be a very big market crash in Bitcoin. It’s not going to be this month, but there is going to be a very big drop as we come into the end of the year. This starts in November on crypto and the stock market. . .. What is not going to be dropping are precious metals, silver and gold. I said silver had to get through $50, and then there would be an explosion. The explosion will take it to crazy numbers. If silver is exploding, guess what gold is doing? Exploding. Gold is going to explode, but silver will explode more percentage wise. Silver is in a pattern of outperforming gold, and it all started on April 21.”
Polny studies Biblical time calculations to predict big turns coming. Polny says, “All the math is pointing to the 31st of October as a very important time point. Something big is going to unfold at the end of October into the beginning of November.”
On the war front, Polny said there would be no global war. With the Trump Middle East peace deal just signed, Polny has paid off another big call. Polny does not see a big war in the near future. Polny says, “I think we have a much higher chance to have an attack in our own country right now in America, short term. Something could go down here in the next few weeks. By the time we get into the end of the year, America is at rest, and evil will have been removed. . .. So, war is not going to happen now. Why? It’s about the timing. All the events and news of the world are going to line up with prophecy. The prophecy is we are stepping into five years of amazing Grace. The peace treaty that was just signed is going to last, and it is going to be the real deal. . .. God has set the stage for the greatest time in human history, and we are days away from this going down. . .. This is going to be the greatest time in history for some, and for others, it will be hell.”
There is much more in the 93-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny. He talks about why gold and silver will continue to make one record high after another. Polny also talks about events and signs coming that he documents in his new book called “Revelation: The Good News, Jubilee Edition, End of Days Timeline Revealed,” for 10.16.25.
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After the Interview:
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