access market
SILVER: 48.94 (3:30 PM)
Bix Weir..
This is an urgent message for all Road to Roota followers that want to get their hands on some Sub-$50 Silver!!
There are times when certain Silver items become “mis-priced” due to external issues related to the manipulation of the price of Silver on the COMEX.
NOW is one of those times!
There is credible information from silver refiners that massive amounts of scrap silver is being melted down into 1,000oz bars to assist the Silver Riggers with their current Shortage of Physical at the LBMA in London. This is causing backlogs at the refiners such that they have stopped buying Scrap Silver with prices so volatile.
Along with these reports there are rumors that “Junk Silver” is included in this meltdown frenzy & refiners aren’t accepting any due to the backlog!
First of all, I highly doubt this is true but what I think doesn’t matter as there is now a mis-pricing of what’s called “Junk Silver” which is actually pre-1965 90% Silver US Coinage!
There are many reasons why pre-1965 Silver coinage is superior to most types of Silver you can buy. The most important one at this time in history is that if we do see a Monetary Meltdown and a change in the US Monetary System, as the Roota to Roota Theory postulates, I believe US Mint made Silver Coinage will trade at a massive PREMIUM to the spot price of all other types of Silver!
So here’s what I did for us, I have worked out a deal with our friend Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin to sell Pre1965 Silver Coinage at SPOT SILVER prices to Road to Roota followers until he sells out of inventory or this Sunday night 10/26…whichever comes first!
Contact Miles Franklin and ask to get your “RoadtoRoota Priced” pre1965 coinage at spot!!
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,044.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/22/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/24/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 2
323 C HSBC 30
357 C WEDBUSH SECURITIES 4
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 153 29
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 84
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 439
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2 31
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 1
709 C BARCLAYS 50
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 9
880 H CITIGROUP 246
905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 544 544
MONTH TO DATE: 58,061
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 544 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 54,400 OZ or 1.692 TONNES
total notices so far: 58,061 contracts for 5,806,100 OR 180.594 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 233 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.692 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7308 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 36.590 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 36.610 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
38.72 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 75.925 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 36.610 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 38.720 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S STRONG 1.695 TONNE QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWING YESTERDAY’S HUGE 8.622 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS: 3.860 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + FOLLOWING ANOTHER HUGE 7.695 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED FRIDAY’S RECORD SETTING, 12.031 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD: 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP/WEDNESDAY// WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY’S RECORD SETTING MONSTER 9.564 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY 42.549 TONNES QUEUE JUMPING FOR OCT. THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 196.827 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 3,704 CONTRACTS OI TO 166,101 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 175 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 175 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3704 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE SMALL 175 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3529 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.33 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 17.645 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.33
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.65 POINTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 86.21 PTS OR 0.72%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 666.18 PTS OR 1.34% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.09%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1230// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1256/ Oil UP TO 61.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1230 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1256 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY ONLY A STRONG 8632 CONTRACTS TO 463,789 OI WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $78.90 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST LITTLE NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT HUGE PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5768). WE HAD MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2864 CONTRACTS (OR 7.782 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 14.553 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 6 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 130.3 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2864 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2,700 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY’S AND TUESDAY’S HUGE RAIDS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON OUR UPCOMING DAYS.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE SET TO BEGIN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS HAVE DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN. IT WILL BE QUITE A TRADING WEEK //OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY FRIDAY OCT 31..COMEX EXPIRY TUESDAY OCT 28.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS NOW BRINGS US TO OCTOBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS 28,988 CONTRACTS FOR 90.114 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.898 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OCT 4 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.9704 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCT 7 QUEUE JUMP OF 3.623 TONNES, THEN OCT 8’S HUGE 6.942 TONNES QUEUE JUMP, OCT 9 HUGE 4.979 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP, OCT 10 MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 7.504 CONTRACTS(250,900 OZ//7.504 TONNES) AND THEN OCT 13: 4.3919 TONNES// AND THEN OCT 14 WITH A RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES AND THEN WEDNESDAY’S MASSIVE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP AT 8.326 TONNES. THEN HUGE RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN YESTERDAY’S 3.8600 TONNES AND FINALLY YESTTERDAY’S HUGE 8.622 TONNES AND THEN TODAY AT 1.695 TONNES //// AND THIS WAS AUGMENTED BY AN UNUSUAL 50,000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THEN ON THREE CONSECUTIVE OCCASIONS, OCT 2 THROUGH TO THE OCT 4.THEY TOOK ONE DAY OFF AND THEN ISSUED ITS 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ/3.1105 TONNES AND THEN FINALLY OCT 21 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// FOR 1029 CONTRACTS//102,900 OZ//3.200 TONNES THE NEW TOTAL ON THESE 6 ISSUANCES IS 4679 CONTRACTS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES INCLUDING QUEUE JUMPS. NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 245 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING.
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT:
F) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
G) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
K) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
L) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
M) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
N) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
0) A HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
P) A RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING TUESDAY’S 9.564 TONNES
Q/ QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONES OF GOLD//
R/ TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.8600 TONNE JUMP
S) OCT 22 QUEUE JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES//
T) 1OCT 23 .695 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
195.349 TONNES OF GOLD!!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 5768 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5768 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 5768 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5768 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON!
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCT. 10 AND GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK DESPITE OUR TWO RAIDS THIS PAST WEEK, ON FRIDAY AND OCT 21.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A STRONG SIZED SIZED 2700 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9 AND THEN TODAY OCT 21, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 1.695 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED YESTERDAY’S HUGE 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS YESTERDAY’S., 3.860 TONNES FOLLOWING OCT 20, 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED FRIDAY’S HUGE: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S 8.326 TONNES, FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY’S HUGE 6.469 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED TUESDAY;S RECORD SETTING 9.564 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS IN OCT OF 33.009 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $78.90./ /) AND WERE MILDLY SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 2864 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY .THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A) GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). AND B) MAYBE THE COMMENCEMENT OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS EVEN THOUGH THEY TRANSFERRED THESE LOSSES ONTO THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET.THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER. THE CROOKS NOW NEED TO RAID ON EVERY OTHER DAY. AS OCT 21 WAS ANOTHER MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND EQUITY SHARES.
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF A TOTAL OF 7.782 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.692 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED YESTERDAY’S 7.695 TONNES/QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED A MASSIVE 12.031 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP ON FRIDAY OCT 21 AND THEN 61.216 TONNES OF PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 195.349 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $78.90
WE HAD A SMALL 362 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2864 CONTRACTS OR 286400 0Z (8.908 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 23
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 entries i) Out of Brinks 1028.832 oz 32 kilobars ii) Out of Malca: 8083.204 oz total withdrawal: 9112.020 oz. or 0.28 tonnes of gold. . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER nil xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 544 notice(s) 54,400 OZ 1.692 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 65 contracts 6500 OZ 0.2022 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 58,061notices 5,806,100oz 180.594 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of Brinks 1028.832 oz 32 kilobars
ii) Out of Malca: 8083.204 oz
total withdrawal: 9112.020 oz.
or 0.28 tonnes of gold.
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ADJUSTMENTs 2
a) customer to dealer Brinks 128,968.682 oz
b) dealer to customer HSBC: 101,031.993 oz
volume at the comex: TUESDAY: 507,114oz (humongous//
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 609 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1897 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 2442 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 545 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 54500 OZ OR 1.695 TONNES OF GOLD, WHICH FOLLOWS YESTERDAY’S 3.8 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED LAST FRIDAY’S, HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY OF 12.54 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD WHICH FOLLOWED BY ALL THE REST OF OCTOBER QUEUE JUMP OF 57.356 TONNES
THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 180.786 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 2151 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4287 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 4876 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 352,494 CONTRACTS.
We had 544 contracts filed for today representing 54,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 544 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (58,061 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 609 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (544x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,806,100 OZ OR 180.796 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 195.349 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (58,061 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (xxxx OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (544 x 100 oz) which equals 5,758,400 OZ OR 179.1104 TONNES + 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 193.6634 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 193.6634 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
volume TUESDAY confirmed 327,800 contracts huge
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,690,441.352 oz 52.58 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,968,914.919oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,947,825.805 or 620.461tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 19,011,089.714 OZ
END
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 1,825,738 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 567.88tonnes // (dseclining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 23 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) Out of CNT 597,528.228 oz ii) Out of Delaware 996.365 oz iii) Out of HSBC 602,270.930 oz iiv) Out of JPMorgan: 647,386.600 oz v) Out of Int Delaware 1,202,752.304 oz total withdrawal 3,045,929.359 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 233 CONTRACT(S) ( 1.165 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 contracts (70,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7308 Contracts (36.590 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 entries
`
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
5 entries
i) Out of CNT 597,528.228 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 996.365 oz
iii) Out of HSBC 602,270.930 oz
iiv) Out of JPMorgan: 647,386.600 oz
v) Out of Int Delaware 1,202,752.304 oz
total withdrawal 3,045,929.359 oz
adjustments: 5
first 4 dealer to customer
a) Asahi 277,004.220 oz
b) Brinks: 572,812.380 oz oz
c) CNT 215l,752.220 oz
d) Manfra; 4825.720 oz
and now only one customer to dealer Delaware
e) 258,097.547 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 167..998 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 497,981 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 247 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 72 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 141 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 213 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 1.065 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 36.610 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG 1.065 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 38.720 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER GAINED 71 CONTRACTS UP TO 2719
DECEMBER LOST 3558 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 115,405
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 233 or 1.682 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 123,378 mega hue//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7380 X5,000 oz = 36.050 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (xxxx) AND the number of notices served upon today (233 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (7308) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(xxxx) minus number of notices served upon today (233)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 35.545 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 36.790 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 37.655 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 167,998 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 206.827/497.981million. 41.64%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
SEPT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD UP $8.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 15 WITH GOLD UP $45.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 974.80 TONNES/
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $12.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.95 TONNES/
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.96 TONNES//
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.68 TONNES//
SEPT 8 WITH GOLD UP $41.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $47.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ; A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.29 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.97 TONNES//
GLD INVENTORY: 1052.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.088 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.265 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.500 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.177 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.677 MILLION OZ //
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.816 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.677 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 1.181 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.493 MILLION OZ./
SEPT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.25/ HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV AT WITHDRAWAL OF 2.735 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:// ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.674 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 501.474 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Reflections on a flash crash
Precious metals suffered a sudden reversal starting last Friday, coinciding with reports of sudden retail buying from around the world. But there is a positive side to these developments.
| Alasdair MacleodOct 23∙Paid |
This article is less about the evil doings of market manipulators and whether they are out to get the gold and silver bugs, and more about what is actually happening in the gold/currency relationship. It was an action that tends to occur to a market which becomes wildly overbought, which an examination of the entrails is not the situation in precious metals. From a market point of view, therefore we can regard it as a temporary setback.
What we cannot know is how long gold and silver will take to make new highs again. But putting technical analysis to one side, we know, or should know, that we are in the early stages of a fiat currency crisis centred on the US dollar, which eventually will lead to a return to gold standards. China is already putting her plans in place, opening vaults in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, and doubtless will make similar arrangements available in other trade centres.
At this distance it appears to be readiness for a Bretton Woods mark-2, which is likely to form the backbone for intra-national trade settlements between non-G7 nations who will use the yuan to replace the dollar. Additionally, the establishment of China’s cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS) allows trade settlements between them in yuan without the US dollar being in the middle of a foreign exchange transaction.
The point about gold being held offshore in a Shanghai Gold Exchange vault is that as the dollar and its entire G7 currency system dies, China can fix an exchange rate for the yuan turning it into a gold substitute. Clearly, the long-term thinkers in China’s government see this as a likely outcome. It is part of the geopolitical struggle between China with her Russian handmaiden and America.
In that struggle, it is likely that China’s actions will contribute to the destruction of the dollar-based currency system. But they will know from their own history that fiat currencies have a limited lifespan and will also have observed it elsewhere. Furthermore, their Marxist universities will have drummed into students’ minds the fallibilities of the capitalist system leading to the destruction of their currencies. Those students are now China’s leaders.
Meanwhile, since the death of Mao China has played the capitalists’ game, running up debt in both public and private sectors exposing the yuan to the same dangers facing the dollar. Gold backing for the yuan is the basis of their Plan B, which is now emerging in plain sight.
Ending fiat faces impossible hurdles for the West
A crucial difference between G7 economies and China is that the former is comprised of welfare states, while China is not. The end of fiat currencies is always associated with unsustainable government debt, and the dollar is in the largest debt-cum-credit bubble in history, eclipsing the 1926-1929 roaring twenties which imploded driving Wall Street into a 90% bear market. Yes, this one is even bigger, and Trump’s tariff vacillations are a dead-ringer for the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 which destroyed much of American business activity.
The dollar was on a gold standard at that time, which stabilised the currency. This time, there is no stability from a credit bubble implosion. And as a direct result of the inevitable end of this credit cycle, the welfare states in the West will be forced into soaring budget deficits, as they try to rescue everything from bankruptcy for fear of massive unemployment. Indeed, the Fed is already moving its monetary emphasis from tackling inflation to tackling unemployment. Surely, it’s not a coincidence that gold has risen so sharply in recent months as the Fed’s policy emphasis has changed.
China does not have these problems. Its stock market is not in a bubble, and the property crisis is over. Crucially, she has a Plan B: industrialise rapidly growing Africa and fill-in in Asia. Our experience in the nineteenth century was that a gold-backed currency was no hinderance to these plans. Instead, a gold standard ensured that borrowing costs remain low, encourages consumer saving, and gives the overall stability necessary for business calculation. The Chinese state can switch from monetary stimulation to a sound money environment much more easily than we can.
So, what conclusions can we draw?
· Gold will be central backing for a new Chinese currency regime for all Asia, including the Middle East, Africa, and other members and wannabe members of BRICS, comprising over 70% of the world’s population. It will replace the US dollar, which becomes increasingly unstable, being pure fiat.
· China’s plans will increase selling of dollars and other fiat currencies for gold. A rising gold price will contribute to the dollar’s instability.
· In terms of timing, the bursting of the credit bubble which has grown under the fiat dollar over its 54-year history will cause an acceleration in the decline of the dollar’s purchasing power and of the other G7 fiat currencies, which will respond to fear of the welfare fallout.
· If you think gold has peaked, you miss the point. Gold remains relatively stable in its purchasing power. Higher gold, silver, and other commodity prices will reflect the demise and end of the West’s fiat currency system. Setbacks such as that of the last few trading sessions are only temporary. Unless, that is, the political class sees the dangers and has the mandate to drive their economies into the sort of depression that makes the ‘thirties seem like a vicar’s tea party.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Stefan Gleason: Wall Street’s dollar-centric thinking is a financial killer
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-10-23 11:35 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Thursday, October 23, 2025
With gold and silver pulling back from their all-time highs over the last few days, the naysayers on Wall Street –- who totally missed the huge rally in both metals since Labor Day — have boldly declared the top is in.
They further claim the dollar “debasement trade” has ended … and the U.S. dollar is set to strengthen
We believe this is wishful thinking by the “paper bugs” who always seem to find a new excuse to bash gold and silver — and ridicule those who buy it.
As we’re now 25 years into a secular bull run that has seen precious metals outperform U.S. stock indexes, you’d think these Wall Street sharpies would have finally changed their tune. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Vince Lanci: The rules of managing the gold market
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-10-23 09:14 Section: Daily Dispatches
9:13a ET Thursday, October 23, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst Vince Lanci has posted some wonderful commentary at his proprietary internet site —
— much of which has been reposted by ZeroHedge today. It’s headlined “China Calls Gold Bluff, U.S. Pushes Back” and nails the gold story in a section headlined “Rules of a Managed Market.”
Those rules are 1) that gold can go up but not too fast and 2) gold must never receive sustained favorable news coverage.
The excerpt can be found at ZeroHedge here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
says a mouthful!! no silver around
Germany stops commemorative coins because of surging silver price
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-10-23 08:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Olaf Storbeck
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, October 22, 2025
The German finance ministry has stopped the planned sale of two commemorative coins after the cost of their silver content surpassed their face value.
The unusual step, which affects the issuance over the next three months of a E20 and a E25 coin popular with collectors, highlights the extent of the current rally in precious metals.
While the surge in the silver price is less pronounced than that of the gold price, the precious metal reached a new all-time high this month at $54.30 per troy ounce and is 60% more expensive than at the start of the year.
The first casualty is a coin depicting the biblical “Three Wise Men” as part of a Christmas-themed series of E25 coins that started in 2021. They are made from 22 grams of pure silver, which has a current market value of about E29. Previous editions have been sold for as much as E45.95. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Big smashes in gold futures seldom keep prices down for long
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-10-23 07:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
After Gold’s Big Plunge, Here’s What History Shows Could Happen Next
By Myra P. Saefong
MarketWatch, New York
via MSN News, Redmond, Washington
Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Gold prices fell again on Wednesday, a day after posting their biggest one-day drop in over a decade — yet history shows that the plunge is more likely to be followed by a modest move higher. …
But a look at previous big daily declines for the precious metal — those of 5% of more — shows that drops like this one may not have a lasting effect.
An analysis of most active gold futures conducted by Dow Jones Market Data shows that after daily declines of 5% or more since May 24, 2006, prices on average traded about 1.82% higher a month later. The biggest percentage rise was 15.46% a month after a 7.3% fall on June 13, 2006, while the biggest loss was 7.76% a month after a 5.4% fall on May 24, 2006.
“Gold and silver should not be expected to go up in a straight line,” Stefan Gleason, president and chief executive officer at Money Metals Exchange, told MarketWatch. Corrections like the one seen this week are “healthy and helpful,” he said. “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
end
exactly what I have been telling you!
Michael Lynch: Comex gold selloff is all paper-driven as record physical buying continues
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-10-22 15:37 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Michael Lynch
Econanalytics.Substack.com
Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Analyzing Comex data since the price roller-coaster began last Friday, Oct. 17, indicates that paper shorts flooded the market at record high volume driving the price down. December contract open interest dropped as paper longs folded.
However, physical gold bought on the October contract continued at a sizzling record pace. Two large players emerge from being somewhat dormant, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley house accounts, and bought much of the physical gold.
The rush for physical gold continues regardless of price spikes or price smashes.
Since the price-roller coaster began Oct. 17, 6,000 new contracts have been written for immediate physical delivery over the last three days. Each of those were daily records for this point in the delivery period as have each of the last six days. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
ROBERT LAMBOURNE:
Margin requirements in Shanghai gold futures
Inbox
| Robert Lambourne | 8:05 AM (1 minute ago) | ||
to Chris, me | |||
I wasn’t sure if you knew that this had happened. A week ago the SHFE announced higher margin requirements for gold futures traders.
A summary of the changes from Perplexity is below. One of my friends has Indian connections and he has been told that this margin increase set off the Asian part of the recent sell off.
Perplexity
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced changes to margin requirements for gold futures traders in mid-October 2025. Specifically, on October 16, SHFE stated that from the settlement after market close on October 21, 2025, margin ratios would be increased:
• The margin requirement for hedging positions in gold and silver futures will rise from 13% to 15%.
• The margin requirement for non-hedging (speculative) positions will rise to 16%.
• The daily price change limit for gold and silver futures contracts will be widened from 12% to 14%.
These adjustments were made as a response to a sharp price rally and increased volatility in the Chinese gold market during October 2025. The changes apply from the settlement after market close on October 21, so traders seeking to go long must meet the higher margin requirements from that date onward.
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /245
5. COMMODITY REPORT/RARE EARTHS/cattle
Trump Begins Tackling Cattle Shortage, Urges U.S. Ranchers To Lower Prices
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 07:40 PM
U.S. cattle futures are no longer on track for their largest year-to-date gain since 1978. Instead, selling pressure has eroded gains to about 25%, yet it still marks the strongest annual increase since 2010. The pullback comes as President Trump and White House officials confront yet another challenge in the fight against sticky food inflation: a nationwide cattle shortage (years in the making) that has pushed cattle futures to record highs and sent supermarket beef prices to unaffordable levels for working-poor households.
On Wednesday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that “The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil.”
Trump continued, “If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible!”
The president concluded his Truth Social post by saying that ranchers need “to get their prices down,” noting that “the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking as well.”
Last Friday, Trump told reporters, “We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that’s going to bring the price” down, adding, “That would be the one product that we would say is a little bit higher than we want it, maybe higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked our magic.”
Argentinian billionaires rejoice!
At the time, we noted (read here) that a U.S.-Argentina beef deal was highly likely, given that early last week, President Trump hosted Argentinian President Javier Milei at the White House to discuss trade and funding aimed at bolstering the country’s sinking bond and currency market.
By Tuesday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins joined CNBC and announced that the Trump administration intends to make a big deal with the South American country for beef, in return, these fresh supplies will help arrest out-of-control prices.
Ranchers are not happy with the prospect of new supplies. “This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association industry group, told Reuters.
* * * If you want to buy grass-fed, clean, AMERICAN beef and not enrich Argentinian billionaires – for about what you’d pay at Whole Foods (without wading through a sea of liberals), click here.
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.65 POINTS OR 0.22%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED UP 86.21 PTS OR 0.72%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 666.18 PTS OR 1.34% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.09%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1230// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1256/ Oil UP TO 61.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1230 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1256 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1230
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1256
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 186.21 PTS OR 0.72%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 666/18 PTS OR 1.84%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.86 EURO FALLS TO 1.1593 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.668//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.58…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.082 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5518// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.3712 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.113
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.246
3j Gold at $4110.70 Silver at: 49.06 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 2 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 83.88
3m oil (WTI) into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.58/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.668% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.088 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7979 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9250 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.994 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.576 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.493 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.99 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4290 UP 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.235 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.101 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.6666
UP 2 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat As Oil Surges
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 08:53 AM
US equity futures are flat and European stocks headed for a record high as third-quarter earnings continued to flow in. As of 8:20am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly flat except for a -3% selloff in TSLA given the underwhelming earnings release last night which saw profits tumble despite record revenues (pulled forward due to expiration of tax credits) on sharply higher costs. Quantum-computing stocks rallied on a WSJ report the US Is mulling buying stakes (Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) +9.1%, IonQ (IONQ US) +8.7%). Overnight, the most important headline was US’s sanction on the two largest oil company in Russia which sent WTI crude surging 5.5% higher this morning. As a result, bond yields are 1-5bp higher led by 30y, and the 10Y trading just below 4.00%. The USD is higher. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil and precious metals (silver +1.1%). US-China trade talk is set for Friday in Malaysia. Today’s economic calendar calendar includes September existing home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am); weekly jobless claims data have been suspended by the shutdown.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla (TSLA) falls 3.5% after profit plunged despite a record quarter of vehicle sales (Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.06%, Nvidia -0.2%, Meta -0.1%)
- Quantum-Computing Stocks Rally on Report US Is Mulling Stakes (Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) +9.1%
IonQ (IONQ US) +8.7%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US) +12.5%) - Dow Inc. (DOW) rises 6% after the chemicals company reported third-quarter operating Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Honeywell (HON) gains 4% after the industrial company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that surpassed analysts’ expectations.
- International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is down 7% after it reported disappointing revenue in two key software categories, including its closely watched Red Hat unit.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS) rises 5% after the casino operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- LendingClub (LC) soars 11% after the online lender provided a guidance range for new 4Q originations with a midpoint above estimates. JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight.
- Moderna (MRNA) is down 4% after the company said its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) is down 18% after the health insurer cut its adjusted profit guidance for the full year, citing higher medical cost trends in all its businesses.
- T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) falls 1% after posting third quarter results.
- Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 3% after the retailer narrowed its full-year guidance range for net sales, with the midpoint toward the lower end of the previous range.
- Ribbon Communications (RBBN) falls 14% after the developer of software for large phone companies posted third quarter profit that disappointed. Guidance for fourth quarter revenue also missed expectations.
- Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) surges 105% after the drug developer said mid-stage clinical trial results showed significant reductions in cardiovascular risk factors in patients with obesity.
In corporate news, the Wall Street bonus pool is expected to break records this year as big banks reap profits from soaring stocks and a return to more dealmaking after a long drought. Musk, meanwhile, spent the end of Tesla’s earnings call pleading with investors to ratify his upcoming $1 trillion pay package. Polymarket is said to be holding early conversations with investors and looking to raise money at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion.
Oil prices jumped after the Trump administration sanctioned Russian state-owned group Lukoil and Rosneft, ramping up the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Brent has jumped by 5% to start testing $66/barrel. The oil price spike may accelerate a shift in equities to value from growth sectors.
While valuations on the S&P 500 appear stretched, drawdowns in recent weeks have been brief as investors look for better entry points. The “artificial intelligence ecosystem” and banks have shown strong earnings, according to Arun Sai, a senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “We’re seeing froth skimmed off the top, which so far I think is a healthy correction,” Sai said. “You still don’t have evidence to suggest there is anything fundamentally wrong with the US economy or with markets” given strong earnings and the lack of US government data, he said.
While the market remains very steady at the index level, big rotations are going on below the surface, with momentum trades like AI losing steam, as earnings misses pile up in the tech sector and geopolitical tensions simmer. Oil jumped after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers. Tesla shares are lower premarket after quarterly profit plunged, while Elon Musk’s vision of an AI-focused future failed to convince. IBM also disappointed, adding to a slate of poor tech earnings this week including SAP, Netflix and Texas Instruments. Intel is due to report after the close.
The meme stock mania of the past few days may also be passing, with Beyond Meat and Krispy Kreme both lower in premarket trading. A four-day surge that sent Beyond Meat shares up more than 1,300% pushed short sellers’ paper losses to more than $120 million from last week’s record low close, according to data from S3 Partners. Some shorts have been scrambling to exit, while others have doubled down on bets against the plant-based protein producer.
Trade tensions are also never far away. China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of talks. The Trump administration is weighing export restrictions against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software, a White House official said Wednesday.
“Because of the trade tensions, there was a narrative of caution going into third-quarter season and that has now abated, given the stronger numbers,” said Nina Stanojevic, an investment specialist at St James Place. “People were looking to this earnings season to see if there was any flow-through from the trade tariffs but it seems that the market has taken it in its stride so far.”
The markets are jittery about the US-China tensions, and “though it could probably be just another TACO situation, and even though everyone knows that’s how it goes, there are still people who have to react until things settle down,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities.
Looking at Q3 reporting season, earnings so far have been broadly positive, helping to support equities as a mix of macro fears injected a note of nervousness into global markets. The Trump administration said it’s considering curbs on software exports to China, risking another escalation of the trade dispute. Traders are also pinning their hopes on another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this month, even as they await delayed September inflation data due to be released on Friday.
European equities rose on Thursday, with energy shares leading gains as oil rallied after the US imposed sanctions on Russian producers. Travel and technology shares are the biggest laggards. Stoxx 600 rises 0.2% to 573.25 with 277 members down, 313 up, and 10 little changed. Here are the biggest movers:
- Energy is the best-performing sector in Europe on Thursday as oil rallies after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers, with President Donald Trump ramping up pressure to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine
- LSE Group shares rise as much as 9%, after the data company and stock exchange operator reported third-quarter results that analysts described as strong and raised its guidance for 2025 adjusted Ebitda margin to the top end of the prior range
- Nokia shares surge as much 13%, the most since April 2021, as analysts cheer a strong report from the Finnish digital infrastructure firm in which net sales beat expectations; Jefferies sees strong momentum building in the quarter
- DSV gains as much as 7.6%, the most since April, after the Danish logistics group’s third-quarter report showed positive impacts from cost control as well as an earlier-than-expected boost from the recent Schenker acquisition, according to analysts
- Kering shares rise as much as 10%, hitting the highest level since April 2024, after the luxury-goods maker reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue
- Dassault Systemes shares drop as much as 17%, the most since 2002, after the software firm lowered its revenue forecast for the year. The shares are trading at the lowest since April 2020
- RELX falls as much as 2.7% after the UK information and analytics firm reported results in line with analysts’ estimates. Underlying trends indicate the company is on track to meet FY expectations
- Evolution shares drop as much as 13% to the lowest intraday level in almost five years. The Swedish gambling operator’s revenue and earnings missed estimates in the third quarter, with Asia a particular source of weakness
- Carrefour shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since June, after the grocer reported 3Q LFL sales excluding fuel and calendar effects that missed analyst estimates
- Roche shares drop as much as 3.4%, the most since May 12, after the Swiss drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected sales for the third quarter. Vontobel called the upgraded earnings guidance for the full year an “unconventional move”
Asian stocks declined, in risk-off trading after news that the White House is considering curbs against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7% before paring losses. TSMC and SoftBank were among the biggest drags, tracking a continued selloff in global AI shares, while tech stocks also slid in Hong Kong. Japan and South Korea led losses among regional benchmarks. The US is considering curbs similar to those implemented against Russia if China doesn’t back down from its threat to restrict rare-earth exports, Reuters reported earlier. While it’s not clear how serious the effort is, it caused fresh anxiety for traders ahead of trade talks planned for next week between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. China announced in the afternoon that Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks. Chinese equities staged a rebound later in the day, with the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index ending the day 0.3% higher, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.8%. A pivotal political gathering on the nation’s development plan for the next five years was also in focus, with authorities expected to deliver fresh policy measures to support growth. Elsewhere, Indonesia’s stock benchmark climbed more than 1%, leading gainers around the region. Here are the most notable Asian movers
- Japanese shipbuilders including Namura Shipbuilding and Sumitomo Heavy Industries surged after the Nikkei reported that an industry group will soon announce a ¥350 billion capital investment plan. Meanwhile, Tesla supplier stocks including Renesas Electronics and TDK fell after the EV maker reported worse-than-expected profit.
- Sands China shares gain as much as 4.6% in Hong Kong after the casino operator’s parent reported an adjusted EBITDA for its Macau operation in the third quarter that beat estimates.
- Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares plunged on Thursday, reflecting renewed concerns about the toy maker’s long-term sales outlook despite a strong third-quarter performance.
- LS Electric shares surge as much as 13% to a record high as NH Investment & Securities and other brokerages raise their price targets for the South Korean energy equipment maker following a 19% on-year jump in quarterly sales.
- Giant Biogene shares rise as much as 14% in Hong Kong, the most since March 2023, after the co.’s controlling shareholder increased stake in the firm.
Chinese officials conclude their Fourth Plenum gathering in Beijing, with a readout expected later in the day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to huddle with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of the Trump-Xi talks.
In FX, an earlier gain in the dollar eases, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed and Japanese yen underperforming. The US currency was supported by its 0.5% gain versus the yen to 152.66; the Japanese currency was pressured by expectations of fiscal expansion under the country’s new prime minister and fading prospects for interest rate hikes
In rates, Treasuries hold losses accumulated during London morning as oil prices surged after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest producers, with yields higher by 2bp-5bp and curve steeper. Treasuries lead losses for most bond markets globally. The US 10-year yield is near 3.99% after touching 3.936% Wednesday, with 2s10s and 5s30s curves wider by about 1.5bp near 52bp and 99bp respectively. The US session includes 5-year TIPS auction, following strong demand for Wednesday’s 20-year bond sale. Yields are higher across Europe.
In commodities, WTI crude futures remain more than 5% higher on the day after climbing as much as 5.8% after the Trump administration sanctioned Russian state-owned group Lukoil and Rosneft, ramping up the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Brent has jumped by 5% to start testing $66/barrel. Gold turned positive after two days of steep declines as the Trump administration’s latest trade threats introduced fresh tension into US-China relations.
Today’s economic calendar calendar includes September existing home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am); weekly jobless claims data have been suspended by the shutdown
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX -0.4%
- CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 3.99%
- VIX +0.3 points at 18.91
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.5
- euro little changed at $1.16
- WTI crude +5.2% at $61.52/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Republican Senators are said to consider a bill to keep SNAP program benefits flowing during the government shutdown, according to POLITICO.
- Bessent said they might see CPI coming down next month and the month after, while he thinks housing prices are a lagging indicator, and they are going to see substantial tax refunds for Americans.
- President Trump has announced substantial new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration in Washington grows over the war in Ukraine. The new sanctions target Lukoil and Rosneft as well as nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. WSJ
- U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he expected to reach agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet in South Korea next week that could range from resumed soybean purchases by Beijing to limits on nuclear weapons. Trump also plans to discuss China’s purchases of Russian oil an dhow to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine. RTRS
- A Treasury analysis has found the Trump administrations economic policies have put the US on track to narrow its yawning deficit using a mix of spending cuts and tariff revenue to improve the fiscal outlook. FT
- China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials (Bessent, Greer) in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks, aimed at defusing a standoff between the world’s two largest economies. BBG
- Trump’s administration is in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms: WSJ.
- President Trump said interest rates are down, while he criticized the Fed chair, and noted that he will be doing something very quickly to get beef prices down.
- The new junior party in Japan’s ruling coalition is likely to give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the green light she needs for a big spending package, but will stop short of supporting a revival of Abenomics-style fiscal and monetary policies. RTRS
- BOJ watchers pushed back their forecast for the next interest-rate hike after Sanae Takaichi took over as PM. Only 10% of economists now predict a rate hike on Oct. 30, down from 36% in the previous survey. BBG
- Indian refiners are poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to comply with new U.S. sanctions on two top Russian producers, industry sources said on Thursday, potentially removing a major hurdle to a trade deal with the United States. The change comes as India faces punishing 50% tariffs on its exports to the US and tries to negotiate a trade deal. RTRS
- Canada aims to double its non-US exports by 2035, PM Mark Carney said in a rare prime-time televised speech. He also plans to introduce an immigration strategy to lure talent that might’ve otherwise gone to the US. BBG
- Retail traders are cementing themselves as a force in markets. One proxy for their involvement is stock trades at off-exchange venues, which are poised to make up 50% of total volume this year for the first time. BBG
- Investors are more bullish than before according to the latest Barron’s money manager survey – 47% anticipate higher stock prices over the next 12 months vs. just 28% in the spring (although 57% believe stocks are overvalued). Barron’s
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump’s administration is considering a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software, while the new export controls under consideration by the US could curb exports on a wide range of goods to China, and the plan would retaliate against China’s rare earth export restrictions if adopted, according to Reuters sources. However, the sources said that the measure, details of which are being reported for the first time, may not move forward, and administration officials could announce the measure to put pressure on China but stop short of implementing it, while narrower policy proposals are also being discussed.
- US President Trump said a long meeting is scheduled with Chinese President Xi in South Korea, and he thinks something will work out, while he thinks he will make a deal with Chinese President Xi and could make a deal on soybeans. Trump added that they could even make a deal on nuclear and thinks he will talk to Xi about Russian oil, as well as ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also commented that tariffs are vital and that they might go to the Supreme Court for the tariffs case.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was leaving on Wednesday for Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials and is hoping they can iron things out, while he will have two days of fulsome talks with Chinese officials in Malaysia. Bessent said it would be a shame to waste the first meeting of Trump and China’s Xi during Trump’s second term, as well as noted that he is contemplating the US and allies’ next move if China talks fail.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said any export controls regarding China will be in coordination with G7 allies.
- Taiwan US envoy said they are close to reaching a trade agreement with the US.
- China Commerce Ministry says Vice Premier Lifeng will hold talks with the USA regarding trade in Malaysia within 24-27 October.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St, where sentiment was weighed on by US-China frictions. ASX 200 traded rangebound as participants digested quarterly updates, and with gains in energy and utilities offsetting the weakness in tech and mining. Nikkei 225 underperformed after gapping lower at the open to beneath the 49,000 level despite a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with the mainland pressured amid US-China tensions after reports that the Trump admin considers restricting globally-produced exports to China made with or containing US software.
Top Asian News
- BoK kept the base rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected, with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-Hwan dissented and said a rate cut is needed to support growth. BoK said it will maintain the rate cut stance to mitigate downside risk to economic growth, and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it will closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, as well as examine the impact on inflation and financial stability. BoK Governor Rhee revealed that four board members said the door for rate cuts should be open for the near future, while two board members said current rates should be maintained. Rhee also said that a rate cut at the meeting could have accelerated the upswing in property prices and that it was too early to tell if the rate-cut stance could continue through next year. Furthermore, he said there is greater focus on financial stability among board members, and noted that the chip cycle and US-China trade talks should be watched as the board prepares for the November forecast revision.
- Japan’s RENGO says it will be seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026 shunto negotiations
- China publishes fourth plenum communique, via Xinhua; approves draft of next five-year plan as plenum ends, aims to boost trade innovation, further open markets and extend bilateral investment opportunities. Plans measures to stabilise the job market. Will strengthen public opinion guidance to effectively prevent ideological risks. To enhance social security controls to legally combat crime. Promotes long-term prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macau. Will persevere in advancing comprehensive and strict governance over the Communist party. Aiming for a ‘big increase’ in the level of tech self-reliance. To comprehensively enhance independent innovation capabilities.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are mostly firmer but with some slight underperformance in the DAX 40, which is being pressured by post-earning losses in SAP (-2.4%). European sectors are mixed. Energy takes the top spot, joined closely by Consumer Products; the latter boosted by upside in Kering (+9%) after the Co. reported strong Q3 metrics. To the downside, Evolution (7%) weighs on the Travel & Leisure sector.
Top European News
- SNB Minutes (Sep): discussed diverging interest rate developments in the US and EZ with experts. Board concluded that the current implementation of monetary policy was appropriate under various scenarios.
- German Council of Tax Experts expect EUR 33.6bln more in total tax revenue in 2025-2029 vs May; German Finance Minister says more positive economic outlook is reflected in rising tax rev.; Gov. is bearing most of growth booster expenses
FX
- USD is slightly firmer/flat and trades within a very narrow 98.92-99.10 range; lack of data releases and Fed speak (due to blackout) has led to quiet trade for the Dollar. However, this should all pick-up on Friday, with the BLS set to release US CPI, despite the government shutdown. There have been some important trade-related newsflow recently; Reuters reported that the Trump administration is mulling a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. Though the piece suggested that the US may not go forward with the plan, and may only be used to apply pressure on China amid trade negotiations. On that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet with China’s VP in Malaysia over the weekend; Bessent said he hopes “to iron things out”.
- EUR is flat/incrementally lower vs USD. EUR/USD is currently trading in a 1.1591-1.1614 range, which is towards the mid-point of Wednesday’s bounds. Overnight, ECB’s Kazaks said “it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut” – comments which are in contrast to Villeroy (cut more likely than hike) and Kocher (sees equal chance).
- JPY is right at the foot of the G10 pile, alongside haven peer CHF; nothing really driving the “risk-on” sentiment seen in the FX-space today, but perhaps some focus on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with China VP this weekend – it is worth caveating that other trade-related reporting has been broadly negative (discussed above). Newsflow out of Japan has been very light, with USD/JPY largely moving at the whim of the Dollar; currently trades at the upper end of a 151.82-152.66 range, a peak which marks a WTD best. Further upside could see a breach back above 153.00 and then to the 10th October high at 152.27.
- GBP is flat, taking a breather following the prior day’s subdued trade in the aftermath of a softer-than-expected inflation report. Newsflow since has been incredibly light, and this has been reflected in Cable, which currently trades in a narrow 1.3329-1.3362 range; at the mid-point of Wednesday’s confines.
- Antipodeans are at the top of the G10 pile, but little fresh behind the strength; though upside which seemingly coincided with an early-morning uptick in copper prices.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0918 vs exp. 7.1205 (Prev. 7.0954)
Fixed Income
- USTs were softer by a tick or two in APAC trade and have continued to dip into and throughout the European morning. Pressure a function of the pockets of improvement in the risk tone as the US-China situation isn’t perhaps as bad as first thought, a point added to by the fact the US’ Bessent and China’s He are still set to meet in Malaysia from tomorrow.
- Thus far, down to a 113-16+ trough with downside of nine ticks at most and approaching the 113-10 WTD base. Ahead, Fed’s Barr and Bowman are scheduled, but the blackout means this will be a non-event. Data-wise, the shutdown continues to limit, but any comments from the KC survey on inflation are of note ahead of Friday’s CPI.
- EGBs followed suit to the above. Bunds below the 130.00 mark, matching the 129.24 low from Tuesday, but yet to test 129.76 from Monday. EGBs hit by the better tone around trade as outlined above. Further pressure for fixed income also stemming from the continued advances in energy prices, biasing yields higher.
- Gilts, unsurprisingly, saw a softer start after closing with gains of nearly 60 ticks on Wednesday. Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks and despite a brief move into the green have since conformed to the bearish bias and trade lower by 15 ticks, an amount comparable to Bunds.
- UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.125% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.83, average yield 4.00%, tail 0.7bps
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are strong today as the US placed new sanctions on Russian oil companies. After an initial c. USD 1.30/bbl move late on Wednesday, WTI and Brent trended higher during APAC trade from USD 59.72/bbl and USD 63.86/bbl respectively to peak at USD 60.90/bbl and USD 65.04/bbl. Currently, benchmarks are continuing to trade higher to new session highs at USD 61.79/bbl and USD 65.96/bbl respectively. To recap, late in Wednesday’s session, the US placed sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil because of “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process”.
- Spot XAU is a little firmer and is currently oscillating in a tight USD 4066-4137/oz band as the metal consolidates following Tuesday’s selloff from record highs.
- Base metals traded rangebound during the APAC session but broke out of recent ranges following Antofagasta copper production and confirmation of a China-US meeting in Malaysia. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight c. USD 50/t range during APAC trade before trending higher and is currently making fresh session highs at USD 10.82k/t.
- Reliance, India will be halting Russian oil imports as part of the term-deal with Rosneft due to the latest US sanctions, via Reuters citing sources
- Russian oil supply to India is set to fall to near zero, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
- Indian state refiners reviewing bills of lading for Russian oil cargoes arriving post-November 21st to ensure no supply comes directly from US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, according to a source cited by Reuters
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the Israeli Knesset’s moves on West Bank annexation threaten the Gaza peace deal.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said it didn’t feel right to have a meeting with Russian President Putin, so he cancelled it and felt it was time for Russian sanctions but hopes sanctions won’t be on for long. Trump also stated that whenever he speaks with Russian President Putin, they are good conversations, but they don’t go anywhere, while he added that sanctions will hopefully make Russian President Putin reasonable.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said they would still like to meet with the Russians and are always going to be interested in engaging with Russia if there’s an opportunity to achieve peace.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a substantial pick up in Russia sanctions was expected to be announced on Wednesday or Thursday. Bessent separately commented that Russian President Putin has not come to the table in an honest manner and President Trump is disappointed with where we are in talks to end the war, while he said the incoming Russia sanctions will be among the largest and the US is urging European and G7 allies, plus Canada and Australia, to join the sanctions push.
- US Treasury Department announced it is imposing sanctions on Russia related to oil and is targeting Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil in the latest batch of sanctions, while it added that OFAC is designating a number of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries. Furthermore, it stated that all entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked, even if not designated by OFAC and it called on Russia to immediately agree to a ceasefire.
- Ukraine President Zelensky says a ceasefire is a possibility. More pressure on Russia is needed. Will not agree to territorial concessions.
- Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chair Medvedev states that the US is a Russian opponent and that US President Trump is on a warpath, his actions are like an act of war.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea said its missile test on Wednesday was successful and was for self-defence, while it added that the missiles tested were hypersonic projectiles, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Oct 18 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k
- 8:30 am: Oct 11 Continuing Claims, est. 1932k
- 10:00 am: Sep Existing Home Sales, est. 4.06m, prior 4m
- 10:00 am: Sep Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -0.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets struggled for momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.53%) falling back after 3 consecutive gains. The main drivers were fears around the US-China trade situation, weaker earnings announcements, as well as growing concerns about a protracted US government shutdown. So that meant sentiment took a hit, with investors becoming a bit less confident in the near-term outlook. Indeed, there was little respite in any direction, as gold fell another -0.65% after Wednesday’s -5.30% slump. However, one asset that did jump were oil prices, with Brent Crude back above $64/bbl this morning after the US announced new sanctions against Russian oil.
Those trade concerns were one of the biggest market catalysts yesterday, and Reuters reported that the Trump administration were considering a plan to restrict exports to China on items that contain US software or were produced using US software. The article said the plan wasn’t the only option on the table, but was designed to retaliate against China’s restrictions on rare earth exports. That left a sense of both sides engaging in hard bargaining ahead of the possible Trump-Xi meeting and trade-sensitive indices took a particular hit yesterday, including the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (-2.36%). That said, we did see hear some constructive-sounding comments later on, with Trump suggesting that he and China’s Xi would “make a deal on, I think, everything”.
The tech mood didn’t improve much after the close, as Tesla was the first of the Mag-7 to report earnings this season. While its revenue beat expectations, they posted a larger-than-expected decline in profits with earnings per share down 31% year-over-year ($0.50 vs $0.54 estimate) weighed down by a surge in operating expenses. So that left Tesla’s shares down -3.95% in after-hours trading, following on a -0.82% decline in yesterday’s regular session. However, it hasn’t caused too big a hit to overall sentiment, with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.17%) both pointing higher this morning.
Before the Tesla results, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) had already lost ground yesterday. While chip stocks led the underperformance, the Mag-7 saw a similar -0.53% decline. The more cyclical industrials (-1.31%) and consumer discretionary (-1.00%) sectors struggled in particular, while the small cap Russell 2000 (-1.45%) saw one of the biggest losses. Meanwhile, Netflix (-10.07%) was the second worst performer in the S&P 500 after their earnings were beneath analysts’ estimates the previous evening. And it was a tough day in Europe too, as the STOXX 600 (-0.18%) also lost ground, with the DAX (-0.74%) and the CAC 40 (-0.63%) posting even bigger declines.
Matters haven’t been helped by the ongoing US government shutdown, which is now on day 23. So, it’s now the second-longest shutdown, only ranking behind the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19, and there’s still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would bring it to an end. Indeed, the Polymarket probabilities currently suggest there’s a 75% chance that this will be the longest shutdown in history, so it could be some time before the regular flow of US economic data resumes. That backdrop was supportive for Treasuries however, as the risk-off move and a strong 20yr auction supported demand. So the 10yr yield (-1.3bps) fell to a fresh one-year low of 3.95%, and the 30yr yield (-1.2bps) was down to its lowest since the Liberation Day turmoil in April, at 4.53%.
Overnight, the biggest market move has come from oil prices, after the US Treasury announced sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies, citing “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”. These are the first material US sanctions against Russia introduced since Trump re-entered the White House in January and mark a sharp shift in tone compared to a week ago, when the two sides had talked about a possible meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin. And with increased risks of oil supply disruption, Brent crude is +3.10% higher overnight at $64.53/bbl, extending a +2.07% gain yesterday, which if sustained would be its biggest 2-day jump since July.
Despite the risk-off move globally yesterday, here in the UK there was a decent market rally after the latest CPI print showed a clear downside surprise. So headline CPI remained at +3.8% (vs. +4.0% expected), and core CPI unexpectedly fell to +3.5% (vs. +3.7% expected). That meant investors dialled up their expectations for another BoE rate cut this year, with the probability of a cut by the December meeting up from 42% to 72% by the close yesterday. In turn, that led to a huge rally for gilts, with the 2yr gilt yield (-8.8bps) down to its lowest since August 2024, whilst the 10yr gilt yield also fell -6.0bps. So that’s also positive from a fiscal standpoint ahead of the government’s budget next month, and UK equities saw a decent rally too. That meant the FTSE 100 was up +0.93%, whilst the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 (+1.47%) posted its strongest gain in over 6 months to close at its highest level since February 2022.
Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields picked up after their recent declines, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+0.5bps) all moving higher. In part, that was driven by a pickup for inflation expectations, which came as oil prices moved higher even before the new US sanctions story broke.
Overnight in Asia, the more negative theme has continued this morning, with the major equity indices falling back as they react to the prospect of a further escalation in the US-China trade war. That’s been led by Japan’s Nikkei (-1.43%), but there’ve also been losses in China for the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.66%). Meanwhile in South Korea, the KOSPI (-0.88%) has also fallen, which comes as the Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, in line with expectations. And in the FX space, the Japanese yen has weakened against the US dollar for a 5th consecutive session and is now trading at 152.45 per dollar.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sales for September, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for October, and the Euro Area’s preliminary consumer confidence measure for October. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the BoE’s Dhingra.
b) European opening report
c) Asian opening report
US-China frictions weigh on the risk tone & US imposes Russian sanctions, rallying crude – Newsquawk European Opening News
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 01:44 AM
- US-China frictions weigh on the risk tone; Bessent said they are contemplating the next move if talks don’t work out
- DXY posts modest gains, EUR pressured, while Sterling remains lower but is off the worst levels on Wednesday
- Fixed benchmarks struggled for direction, US 20yr was decent
- Crude supported by reports around Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles, metals softer
- Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index (Sep), Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct), (Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims), CBRT Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th), Speakers including ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Bowman & Barr (Fed on Blackout), Supply from UK & US.
- Earnings from Dassault, Orange, STMicroelectronics, Beiersdorf, Nokia, BE Semiconductor, Intel, American Airlines, Freeport McMoRan, Honeywell, Dow, Southwest Airlines, Blackstone, PG&E, T-Mobile US & Valero Energy.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were in the red with pressure seen in the US afternoon amid reports that the Trump admin is mulling export controls to China on goods made with or containing US software, although some of the move attempted to pare as digestion of the further details seemed less extreme. Nonetheless, risk-off trade resumed into the close. Sectors were mixed with Industrials and Consumer Discretionary residing as the laggards, and Energy outperforming, buoyed by gains in the crude complex.
- SPX -0.53% AT 6,699, NDX -0.99% AT 24,879, DJI -0.71% AT 46,591, RUT -1.45% AT 2,452.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump’s administration is considering a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software, while the new export controls under consideration by the US could curb exports on a wide range of goods to China, and the plan would retaliate against China’s rare earth export restrictions if adopted, according to Reuters sources. However, the sources said that the measure, details of which are being reported for the first time, may not move forward, and administration officials could announce the measure to put pressure on China but stop short of implementing it, while narrower policy proposals are also being discussed.
- US President Trump said a long meeting is scheduled with Chinese President Xi in South Korea, and he thinks something will work out, while he thinks he will make a deal with Chinese President Xi and could make a deal on soybeans. Trump added that they could even make a deal on nuclear and thinks he will talk to Xi about Russian oil, as well as ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also commented that tariffs are vital and that they might go to the Supreme Court for the tariffs case.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was leaving on Wednesday for Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials and is hoping they can iron things out, while he will have two days of fulsome talks with Chinese officials in Malaysia. Bessent said it would be a shame to waste the first meeting of Trump and China’s Xi during Trump’s second term, as well as noted that he is contemplating the US and allies’ next move if China talks fail.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said any export controls regarding China will be in coordination with G7 allies.
- Taiwan US envoy said they are close to reaching a trade agreement with the US.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said interest rates are down, while he criticised the Fed chair, and noted that he will be doing something very quickly to get beef prices down.
- US President Trump posted on Truth regarding cattle ranchers in which he commented, “It would be nice if they would understand, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!”
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they might see CPI coming down next month and the month after, while he thinks housing prices are a lagging indicator, and they are going to see substantial tax refunds for Americans.
- US House Ways and Means Committee Chair Smith said lawmakers are weighing a stopgap bill through December 2026, according to Bloomberg’s Wasson.
- US House Minority Leader Jeffries hopes they can get the shutdown resolved by the end of October.
- US Republican Senators are said to consider a bill to keep SNAP program benefits flowing during the government shutdown, according to POLITICO.
- US President Trump’s administration is in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms, according to WSJ.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St, where sentiment was weighed on by US-China frictions.
- ASX 200 traded rangebound as participants digested quarterly updates, and with gains in energy and utilities offsetting the weakness in tech and mining.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed after gapping lower at the open to beneath the 49,000 level despite a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with the mainland pressured amid US-China tensions after reports that the Trump admin considers restricting globally-produced exports to China made with or containing US software.
- US equity futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses, but with the rebound contained following several earnings releases, including mixed results from Tesla, which topped revenue forecasts but missed on the bottom line.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market finished with losses of 0.8% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY eked slight gains but with the upside capped after its choppy performance and as participants largely await the US CPI on Friday ahead of next week’s FOMC. There remained little sign of progress regarding the government shutdown, although House Ways and Means Committee Chair Smith remarked that lawmakers are weighing a stopgap bill through December 2026, while House Minority Leader Jeffries hopes they can get the shutdown resolved by month-end.
- EUR/USD trickled lower following the prior day’s fluctuations with the single currency back beneath the 1.1600 handle, while there was little reaction to recent ECB rhetoric, with Kazaks stating it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut.
- GBP/USD remained subdued but is off the lows seen in the aftermath of yesterday’s softer-than-expected UK CPI data.
- USD/JPY continued to advance after breaking back above the 152.00 level, with PM Takaichi said to proceed with fiscal reform both in terms of spending and revenue.
- Antipodeans were constrained amid the subdued risk appetite and absence of tier-1 data releases.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0918 vs exp. 7.1205 (Prev. 7.0954)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures struggled for direction after recent indecision amid focus on US/China relations and following an overall decent 20yr auction stateside.
- Bund futures remained afloat after rebounding from the trough seen in the aftermath of yesterday’s Bund issuance.
- 10yr JGB futures were ultimately flat amid the absence of tier-1 data and pertinent catalysts, while an enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs failed to spur price action.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures rallied with the advances facilitated by geopolitical headlines including reports that the Trump admin lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles, which Trump later refuted, while the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on Russia targeting Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.
- Russian oil supply to India is set to fall to near zero, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
- Indian state refiners reviewing bills of lading for Russian oil cargoes arriving post-November 21st to ensure no supply comes directly from US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, according to a source cited by Reuters
- Spot gold was mildly lower in rangebound trade as price action calmed down from yesterday’s fluctuations.
- Copper futures lacked conviction with demand hampered alongside the mostly subdued risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin steadily gained overnight after climbing back above the USD 108k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoK kept the base rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected, with the decision not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-Hwan dissented and said a rate cut is needed to support growth. BoK said it will maintain the rate cut stance to mitigate downside risk to economic growth, and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts, while it will closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, as well as examine the impact on inflation and financial stability. BoK Governor Rhee revealed that four board members said the door for rate cuts should be open for the near future, while two board members said current rates should be maintained. Rhee also said that a rate cut at the meeting could have accelerated the upswing in property prices and that it was too early to tell if the rate-cut stance could continue through next year. Furthermore, he said there is greater focus on financial stability among board members, and noted that the chip cycle and US-China trade talks should be watched as the board prepares for the November forecast revision.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the Israeli Knesset’s moves on West Bank annexation threaten the Gaza peace deal.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump’s administration reportedly lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles, according to WSJ. However, US President Trump later posted that the WSJ story on Ukraine being allowed to use long-range missiles deep into Russia is fake news.
- US President Trump said it didn’t feel right to have a meeting with Russian President Putin, so he cancelled it and felt it was time for Russian sanctions but hopes sanctions won’t be on for long. Trump also stated that whenever he speaks with Russian President Putin, they are good conversations, but they don’t go anywhere, while he added that sanctions will hopefully make Russian President Putin reasonable.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said they would still like to meet with the Russians and are always going to be interested in engaging with Russia if there’s an opportunity to achieve peace.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a substantial pick up in Russia sanctions was expected to be announced on Wednesday or Thursday. Bessent separately commented that Russian President Putin has not come to the table in an honest manner and President Trump is disappointed with where we are in talks to end the war, while he said the incoming Russia sanctions will be among the largest and the US is urging European and G7 allies, plus Canada and Australia, to join the sanctions push.
- US Treasury Department announced it is imposing sanctions on Russia related to oil and is targeting Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil in the latest batch of sanctions, while it added that OFAC is designating a number of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries. Furthermore, it stated that all entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked, even if not designated by OFAC and it called on Russia to immediately agree to a ceasefire.
OTHER
- North Korea said its missile test on Wednesday was successful and was for self-defence, while it added that the missiles tested were hypersonic projectiles, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Kazaks said it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut, according to Econostream.
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/
Xi’s Purges Reveal His Insecurity
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Brahma Chellaney via Project Sybndicate,
From surveilling and repressing Chinese citizens to firing and prosecuting potential rivals, Chinese President Xi Jinping seems able to rule only through fear. But fear is not a foundation for long-term stability, and the more Xi seeks to consolidate power, the more vulnerable his position becomes.
During his 13 years in power, Xi Jinping has steadily tightened his grip on all levers of authority in China – the Communist Party of China (CPC), the state apparatus, and the military – while expanding surveillance into virtually every aspect of society. Yet his recent purge of nine top-ranking generals, like those before it, shows that he still sees enemies everywhere.
After taking power in 2012, Xi launched a crackdown on corruption within the CPC and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The campaign was initially popular, because China’s one-party system is rife with graft and abuse of power. But it soon became clear that enforcement was highly selective – a tool not for building a more transparent or effective system, but for consolidating power in Xi’s hands. In Xi’s China, advancement depends less on competence or integrity than on earning the leader’s personal trust.
But even after more than a decade of promoting only loyalists, Xi continues to dismiss officials regularly, including top military commanders. According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, nearly five million officials at all levels of government have been indicted for corruption under Xi. And this is to say nothing of those who simply disappear without explanation.
True to form, Xi’s regime claims that the military leaders swept up by his latest purge – including General He Weidong, a member of the Politburo, Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission, and the third-highest-ranking figure in China’s military hierarchy – committed “disciplinary violations” and “duty-related crimes.” But a more plausible explanation is that Xi is playing an interminable game of Whac-a-Rival, desperately trying to preserve his grip on power.
Xi’s fears are not entirely misplaced: each new purge deepens mistrust among China’s elite and risks turning former loyalists into enemies. From Mao Zedong to Joseph Stalin, there is ample evidence that one-man rule breeds paranoia. By now, Xi may well have lost the ability to distinguish allies from foes. At 72, Xi remains so insecure in his position that, unlike even Mao, he has refused to designate a successor, fearing that a visible heir could hasten his own downfall.
None of this bodes well for China. By refusing to lay the groundwork for an eventual leadership transition, Xi sharply increases the risk that the end of his rule – however that comes – will usher in political instability. In the meantime, Xi’s emphasis on personal fealty over ideological conformity is weakening institutional cohesion in a system once grounded in collective leadership. Coupled with his arbitrary firings and prosecutions, Chinese governance is now increasingly defined by sycophancy and anxiety, rather than competence and consistency.
China’s military is paying a particularly steep price for Xi’s insecurity. In recent years, the PLA has undergone sweeping structural reforms aimed at transforming it into a modern fighting force capable of “winning informationized wars.”
But Xi’s purges risk undermining this effort by disrupting military planning and leadership. For example, his abrupt removal in 2023 of the leaders of the PLA’s Rocket Force, which oversees China’s arsenal of nuclear and conventional missiles, may have jeopardized China’s strategic deterrent.
Replacing experienced commanders with untested loyalists might ensure Xi’s political survival – and Chinese leaders have often used the military to safeguard their own power – but it does nothing for national security.
And when generals are preoccupied primarily with political survival, both morale and operational readiness suffer. Can the PLA fight and win a war against a major adversary like the United States or India while operating under the political constraints Xi has imposed on it?
So far, Xi has advanced his expansionist agenda through stealth and coercion rather than open warfare. But a paranoid leader surrounded by sycophants unwilling or unable to challenge him is always at risk of strategic miscalculation. Recall that Stalin decimated the Red Army’s leadership on the eve of the Nazi invasion – with disastrous results. In Xi’s case, it might be China that does the invading, if he orders an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
For all the pomp surrounding China’s rise, the country is beset by structural problems, including a slowing economy, rising youth unemployment, and an aging and declining population. Popular discontent may well be growing, but it is masked by repression, just as any potential challenge to Xi’s leadership is preempted by purges and prosecutions. Ultimately, Xi seems able to rule only through fear.
But fear is not a foundation for long-term stability. A leader consumed by fear of disloyalty may command obedience but not genuine fidelity. Obedience is not merely a poor substitute for strength; it can become a source of fragility, as it leaves little room for creativity, competency, or collaboration. The great irony of Xi’s approach is that the more he seeks to consolidate power in his own hands, the more vulnerable his rule becomes.
Mao’s purges culminated in chaos and national trauma. Xi’s methods are more sophisticated, but the underlying logic is the same – as could be the results.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
END
CHINA
LATE THIS MORNING//ROBERT LAMBOURNE
Fourth plenary of the CCP ended today
Chris and Harvey,
The latest 5 year plan for China was agreed today, at least in principle, if I’ve understood things properly. The plenary session of the CCP ended today.
A summary of the plan from DeepSeek is below. What seems to be clear is that their support for solar and other renewable sources of electricity will carry on. Furthermore, electric vehicles will be continue to be encouraged.
Hence Chinese industrial demand for silver should remain strong.
There’s plenty of other interesting points in the summary below including RMB internationalisation and utilising technology in finance. Their intention to compete head on with the USA in AI, quantum computing, semiconductors etcetera is clearly expressed.
Hence the resolution or otherwise of trade tensions seems unlikely to be easy.
Perhaps the most interesting thing, so far, to me is that Xi Jinping still seems to be their leader. Maybe something will become clearer about his future in the days ahead.
Regards,
Bob
DeepSeek
The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is China’s next national development roadmap, with its overall framework and key targets recently decided at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee. The plan aims to transition China’s economy towards high-quality growth through technological self-reliance and green development.
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What is the 15th Five-Year Plan?
The Five-Year Plan is China’s centralized national economic and social development program. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will be implemented from 2026, continuing China’s long-term policy of pursuing sustainable growth. The recent Fourth Plenary Session laid the political groundwork for this plan.
While specific growth targets will be formally announced later, policy discussions suggest an average annual growth target of around **4.7% to 4.8%** for the 2026-2030 period. This supports China’s long-term goal of doubling the 2020 GDP by 2035.
###
Key Focus Areas of the 15th Five-Year Plan
The plan represents a strategic shift from industrial expansion to an innovation-driven economy. The table below summarizes the main pillars expected to define its approach:
| Focus Area | Key Objectives & Initiatives |
| :— | :— |
| **Technological Self-Reliance & Innovation** | Achieve “new quality productive forces” through breakthroughs in **AI, quantum computing, biotech, advanced semiconductors**. Increase R&D investment and support private sector innovation. |
| **’Dual Circulation’ Strategy** | Boost the domestic market as the main growth driver by raising incomes, strengthening social safety nets (healthcare, elderly care), and stabilizing the housing market. |
| **Green Development & Energy Transition** | Advance towards **2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality** goals. Expand **wind, solar, hydropower, hydrogen tech, and electric vehicles**. |
| **Common Prosperity & Social Equity** | Narrow the income gap through tax adjustments, improved social benefits, and universal public services. Enhance social security, rural revitalization, and regional coordination. |
| **High-Level Opening-Up & RMB Internationalization** | Continue opening to foreign investment in sectors like renewable energy and fintech. Promote the renminbi’s role in global trade and develop cross-border payment systems. |
The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to balance ambitious economic growth with environmental sustainability and shared prosperity. This roadmap demonstrates China’s focus on **long-term, strategic planning** to navigate global uncertainties while pursuing its modernization goals.
AND THEN THIS ANNOUCEMENT BY TRUMP
CHINA/USA
Trump continues on the warpath
ROBERT H.
MAGA ARMY on X: “
BREAKING: In a bombshell announcement, the Trump administration declared the ‘National Farm Security Action Plan’ which bans future Chinese Communist Party-linked farmland purchases, aims to reclaim existing land with executive actions and imposes fines up to 25% of land value. https://t.co/hg1J4uDWCm” / X
Wonder if Canada will follow?
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
NATO/HOLLAND/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
this is interesting!!
Watch: ZeroHedge Spars With NATO Chief In The Oval Over Failed Ukraine Policy
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 04:51 PM
Update(1920ET): During their late afternoon press conference in the Oval Office, President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte fielded questions from the media, including from ZeroHedge White House correspondent Liam Cosgrove.
It was our chance to put Rutte in the hot seat amid ratcheting dangerous escalation in what has clearly long been a proxy war in Ukraine – with what Trump would in that moment call a “fair question” – and the NATO chief appeared to struggle to answer, but also dodged a key follow-up. Cosgrove first highlighted a “massive collapse” in Ukrainian public support for the war. “People view your coming here as lobbying the US government to continue its involvement in the war… but Ukrainians themselves don’t want to fight the war so how do you justify that morally?”
Rutte waffled, talking about wanting peace, but then praised Trump’s plan of injecting more weapons by selling them to NATO, for ultimate use in Ukraine. Cosgrove then pressed him, incredulously posing: “You think more weapons will wind down the war?” Rutte dodged, and was visibly uncomfortable while Trump actually seemed pleased to look on in observation as it unfolded. Watch the tense exchange below, at the end of which Trump also chimes in:
* * *
Update(1651ET): Washington is predictably making demands of Russia, despite that Ukraine still doesn’t have much in the way of leverage on the battlefield – and at a moment President Trump has refused to bring real pressure to bear on Kiev to make territorial concessions.
“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in a Wednesday afternoon statement, after he said new sanctions are imminent.
“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.”
The companies have been named in the Treasury statement as follows:
Today’s action targets Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO (Lukoil), which are now designated. Rosneft is a vertically integrated energy company specializing in the exploration, extraction, production, refining, transport, and sale of petroleum, natural gas, and petroleum products. Lukoil engages in the exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas in Russia and internationally.
Rosneft and Lukoil are being designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the energy sector of the Russian Federation economy.
Dozens of Russia-based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries have also been named as falling under the fresh sanctions.
This takes the two sides further away from actually striking a peace deal at the negotiating table than ever before.
* * *
Update(1546ET): A couple of significant breaking headlines saw oil prices spike Wednesday afternoon, especially US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing Washington would unveil fresh sanctions against Russia, and coming only day after President Trump shelved talks with Moscow on the Ukraine war, after initial talk of a Budapest summit with Putin.
“We are going to either announce after the close this afternoon, or first thing tomorrow morning, a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions,” Bessent told reporters at the White House.
Bessent later told Larry Kudlow that the imminent Russia sanctions will be one of the biggest yet:
“President Putin has not come to the table in an honest and forthright manner, as we’d hoped.
There were talks in Alaska, President Trump walked away when he realized that things were not moving forward.
There have been behind-the-scenes talks, but I believe that the president is disappointed at the – where we are in these talks.
So this — either this evening or first thing tomorrow morning, we are going to be announcing a substantial increase in Russia’s sanctions… this will be one of the largest sanctions that we have done against the Russian Federation.“
His comments sent the price of WTI Crude soaring…
Bessent’s comments came just before NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was due at the White House, in which he said he hopes to discuss “how to deliver” Trump’s “vision of peace” in the conflict.
Earlier in the day, Rutte said he believes that Trump is “the only one who can get this done”.
* * *
Just as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte is in Washington and is set to meet with President Trump Wednesday afternoon, Russia has launched another major overnight drone and missile attack which resulted in a high amount of civilian casualties.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on X that the attack killed at least seven civilians, including children, and that 17 were confirmed injured. “There were fires in Zaporizhzhia and hits on homes in Kyiv. The Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy and Sumy regions were under attack,” he wrote.
In all at least ten regions came under attack, and air defense were active across the country, with at least one major drone intercept caught on camera (below).
Zelensky highlighted both the ongoing need for Western-supplied air defense systems, as well as piling more sanctions on Moscow to make it feel the pressure. “Russian words about diplomacy mean nothing as long as the Russian leadership doesn’t feel critical problems,” Zelensky asserted.
Also, Zelensky alleged that Russia’s assault directly struck a kindergarten in Kharkiv, and that one fatality occurred as a result. He described all children were evacuated, with many “experiencing acute stress reactions”.
Many regions across the country have been experiencing blackouts as well, after already the national electricity grid operator said it would be forced to implement an emergency program of rolling outages.
Zelensky has been arguing that Moscow has no interest whatsoever in peace: “These strikes are Russia’s spit in the face of everyone who insists on a peaceful resolution. Bandits and terrorists can only be put in their place by force.”
Russia’s military, for its part, has countered that it only targeted the “energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector”. Moscow has frequently denied that it intentionally targets civilian sites and homes.
“In response to Ukraine’s terrorist attacks on civilian facilities on the territory of Russia, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive overnight strike by ground-based and airborne long-range precision weapons, including Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles and also attack unmanned aerial vehicles, hitting energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s military-industrial sector,” a statement in TASS said.
It added, “The goals of the strike were achieved. All the designated targets were hit.” Likely Russian officials are going to deny that the military attacked a children’s school.
The military has also said Russian troops captured two settlements in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions over the past 24 hours.
“Battlegroup Center units liberated the settlement of Ivanovka in the Dnepropetrovsk Region through decisive operations… Battlegroup East units kept advancing deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Pavlovka in the Zaporozhye Region,” the defense ministry said in a statement.
NATO’s Rutte in Washington will likely press Trump to take a firmer stance on Russia, and the two might even privately discussing transferring US Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. Trump has signaled he’s against this for now, but the option has probably not been taken off the table just yet.
END
GERMANY/POLAND/ENERGY
Poland will take over from Germany as the main supplier of LNG to Eastern Europe!
(KORYBKO)
Germany Stands To Lose & Poland To Gain From The EU’s Latest Energy Move
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Poland’s role in providing more US LNG to Central & Eastern Europe is expected to erode Germany’s influence in this region and accelerate Poland’s revival of its lost Great Power status.
The European Council decreed that the import of Russian gas will be banned across the bloc next year, but with varying lengths of grace periods for countries with short- and long-term contracts, the longest of which will last till 1 January 2028. The Council earlier admitted that pipeline gas and LNG combined accounted for a little less than a fifth of the bloc’s imports last year. It should also be mentioned that the EU continues to import Russian oil too, including indirectly, which has proven to be similarly scandalous.
Nevertheless, the EU’s plans to phase out the remaining fifth of its gas imports from Russia will further enfeeble its economy by leading to their replacement with more expensive US LNG, which will predictably result in the costs being passed down to consumers. This was entirely predictable too since the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 per the terms of their lopsided trade deal from last summer that was assessed here as having turned the EU into the US’ largest-ever vassal state.
Germany is expected to be the most dramatically affected by this development in terms of its domestic politics and geostrategy. As regards the first, a greater decrease in living standards caused by the costs of more expensive US LNG being passed down to consumers could accelerate the AfD’s rise, which would lead to significant political changes if they’re ever able to form a government. Even if they’re kept out of power, such blatant meddling by the elites could worsen political polarization and associated tensions.
On the topic of German geostrategy, Poland with whom Germany is competing for influence over Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is poised to play a supplementary role in supplying Czechia and Slovakia with US LNG via the Swinoujscie terminal and the planned one in Gdansk. Ukraine will be supplied too. These countries lie within the sphere of influence that Poland envisages creating upon the revival of its lost Great Power status. Czechia and Slovakia are also part of the Visegrad Group together with Poland.
Hungary is a member too and could be supplied with US LNG via Poland or Croatia’s Krk terminal, whose expansion is one of the priority projects of the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that Poland and Croatia co-founded in 2015 but which is now led by Warsaw. While Germany commands much more influence over CEE due to being the EU’s de facto leader and boasting its largest economy, Poland’s influence over them is increasing through its future role in suppling US LNG, which might pull them away from Berlin one day.
Energy geopolitics play a significant role in geostrategy so the impact of the aforesaid trend shouldn’t be underestimated if it continues to unfold. In that event, the overarching trend would be the likely decline of German influence over CEE, greatly facilitated as it was by Germany’s voluntary participation in the US’ anti-Russian sanctions regime and then the Nord Stream terrorist attack which pushed it beyond the point of no return. These might be seen in hindsight as the beginning of a new regional order in CEE.
While Germany thought that it would inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, the US ended up inflicting a strategic defeat upon Germany by engineering the circumstances whereby its only Western competitor’s economy would decline. Together with Poland, whose Anglo-American-backed revival of its Great Power status conveniently creates a regional wedge between Germany and Russia, the US is geostrategically re-engineering Europe at Germany’s expense in order to facilitate Russia’s post-Ukraine containment.
END
EU/RUSSIA/NEW SANCTIONS
they are continually going after Russia
EU Targets Russian LNG, Crypto, & Banking In Sweeping 19th Sanctions Package
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 10:40 AM
“We waited for this. God bless, it will work. And this is very important,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Brussels, as EU countries announced the bloc’s latest round of large-scale anti-Moscow sanctions Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had encouraged allies to “join in” as the US hit Russia’s two largest oil giants with sweeping sanctions on Wednesday, and the EU quickly did with its 19th package of sanctions. The EU’s newest action includes banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports for the bloc.
Zelensky has further hailed the “resolute and well-targeted decision,” calling the Trump-ordered sanctions a “clear signal that prolonging the war and spreading terror come at a cost.” He urged other global leaders to do the same as “it is a strong and much-needed message that aggression will not go unanswered.”
To translate all of this: Zelensky almost always gets what he wants in this slow but steady escalation ladder between Russia and the West. “This has been the constant pattern of the conflict from day one,” concludes Alex Christoforou of The Duran podcast.
The fresh EU sanctions take aim at Russia’s energy, finance sectors, and the military industrial complex. Measures to strengthen control over the movement of Russian diplomats across the EU have also been put in place.
Russia’s recently established state-supported stablecoin and crypto exchanges have also been significantly targeted in the EU sanctions.
Already Brussels is promising more down the road, with Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and chair of the Foreign Affairs Council, issuing the following statement:
We have just adopted our 19th package of sanctions. It targets Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges, and entities in China, among others. The EU is also regulating the movements of Russian diplomats to counter attempts at destabilisation. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to finance his war. Every euro we deny Russia is one it cannot spend on war. The 19th package will not be the last.
Below is a look at what energy companies and exports are targeted, as well as banking sector and crypto, based on the European Council’s detailed press release.
Energy
- Today’s package introduces a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the EU, starting January 2027 for long-term contracts, and within six months for short-term contracts, and tightens the existing transaction ban on two major Russian state-owned oil producers (Rosneft and Gazprom Neft). The EU is also listing a Tatarstani conglomerate active in the Russian oil sector. In parallel, the EU is taking measures against important third country operators enabling Russia’s revenue streams. This involves sanctioning Chinese entities – two refineries and an oil trader – that are significant buyers of Russian crude oil.
- Furthermore, the EU is imposing additional sanctions across the shadow fleet value chain. Specifically, the 19th package includes the listing of Litasco Middle East DMCC, Lukoil’s prominent shadow fleet enabler based in the United Arab Emirates. Other listings include maritime registries providing false flags to shadow fleet vessels, allowing their continued operation by creating a fraudulent impression of compliance with certification requirements. Today’s measures also target the largest port container operator in the Russian Far East, and a leading shipbuilder for Sovcomflot.
- An additional 117 vessels have been made subject to a port access ban and a ban on the provision of a broad range of services related to maritime transport, bringing the total number of designated vessels to 557. These measures target non-EU tankers that are part of the shadow fleet circumventing the oil price cap mechanism, which otherwise support Russia’s energy sector, or transport military equipment for Russia or stolen Ukrainian grain.
- The 19th package also introduces a ban on reinsuring vessels belonging to the shadow fleet, further constraining their ability to operate.
Financial measures
- Recent activity has evidenced Russia’s increasing use of crypto in circumventing sanctions. In this context, the stablecoin A7A5 – created with Russian state support – has emerged as a prominent tool for financing activities supporting the war of aggression. Therefore, today’s package introduces sanctions on the developer of A7A5, the Kyrgyz issuer of that coin, and the operator of a platform where significant volumes of A7A5 is traded. Transactions involving this stablecoin have also been prohibited across the EU.
- As of today, eight banks and oil traders from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, the UAE and Hong Kong that circumvent EU sanctions are subject to a transaction ban. Five additional Russian banks – Istina, Zemsky Bank, Commercial Bank Absolut Bank, MTS Bank, and Alfa-Bank – are targeted using the same measure. Four banks from Belarus and Kazakhstan are also put under a transaction ban, due to their connections to Russian financial messaging and payment systems.
- Additionally, the EU is prohibiting its operators from engaging with the Russian National Payment Card System (‘Mir’) or the Fast Payments System (‘SBP’). Significant restrictions are also imposed on maintaining economic relationships with entities active in nine Russian special economic zones. These zones are central to Russia’s industrial and technological capacity, hosting enterprises engaged in the production or development of goods contributing to the Russian war effort.
The full list can be accessed here.
The Kremlin’s initial reaction has been to say that EU sanctions against Russia are backfiring on Brussels, and the possibilities for their expansion “are largely exhausted” – according to TASS.
Brussels has “already tried almost all options” for trying to bring Russia to its knees, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday. She condemned futile EU efforts to inflict “a strategic defeat on Russia, damaging the Russian economy, and defense capabilities.” Further, she warned against targeting Russian assets which “will provoke a guaranteed, painful response.”
end
SWEDEN/NATO/UKRAINE/
Zelensky Signs Letter Of Intent To Acquire Whopping 150 Swedish Fighter Jets Over Next 10-15 Years
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 02:45 AM
In the latest clear sign that NATO is seeking to build-up Ukraine’s military infrastructure as well as aerial defenses for the long-haul, and as much as decades into the future, Ukraine has signed a letter of intent with Swedish government to acquire a huge batch of advanced fighter jets over the next ten to fifteen years.
President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Norway and then Sweden on Wednesday for the signing ceremony and a press conference. He signed a declaration of intent with Stockholm which is “the first document that opens the way for Ukraine to receive a very serious fleet of Gripen combat aircraft.”
Astoundingly, Ukraine says it seeks to acquire as many as 150 Saab Gripen Es over the long term. This would be a purchase worth billions, with some initial aircraft expected to be delivered as early as 2026.
“We must do everything possible to see the results of this memorandum next year,” Zelensky said, also confirming that Ukrainian pilots are already being trained on the advanced fighter. He further hailed the “powerful aviation platforms”.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared “This is the start of a long journey of 10-15 years.” He met Zelensky in the city of Linkoping, which is home to the country’s defense company Saab.
“We are talking about roughly three years before we can start deliveries. And we cannot deliver all 150 aircraft in one batch. Deliveries will be possible over the next three years,” Kristersson stated.
The modernized “E” version of the Saab JAS 39 Gripen has only this month entered use by the Swedish Air Force, and it will be seen as vital in modernizing the Ukrainian Air Force, which also currently possesses US F-16s.
The upgraded fighter is seen internationally as a cheaper alternative to America’s highly advanced and ultra-expensive F-35. One aviation journal has described as follows:
Despite its similar outward appearance, the Gripen E is regarded as a completely new aircraft type — as you can read about here.
Ultimately, the Gripen E will take over the tasks currently performed by the Gripen C/D, but the two will serve together for “a relatively long period of time,” according to the Swedish Air Force.
In basic mission terms, the Gripen E offers a longer range and can carry a heavier load than its predecessor. The aircraft is slightly larger than the C-model at just under 50 feet and includes a beefed-up fuselage that accommodates approximately 30 percent more fuel. The aircraft also features larger air intakes, the more powerful General Electric F414 engine, and a total of 10 hardpoints.
One analyst was further quoted: “It’s a completely new system — built to meet future requirements for survivability, range, sensors, and interoperability. It’s the result of Swedish engineering and innovation with a clear focus on operational effectiveness.”
It is anyone’s guess where the Russia-Ukraine war will be one year from now, and certainly the future decade is highly unpredictable. The conflict is growing more dangerous by the day, especially given NATO’s ever increasing involvement.
Currently there’s much speculation that this new Swedish aircraft purchase will be funded utilizing frozen Russian assets in European banks, which the Kremlin has denounced as theft and piracy.
END
GERMANY JAPAN HOLLAND//NEXPERIA
this is becoming a hope problem for Japan and Germany in the manufacturing of automobiles
(zerohedge)
Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 07:45 AM
One day after German tabloid newspaper Bild reported that Volkswagen had suspended production of the Golf at its Wolfsburg factory due to a worsening semiconductor shortage caused by a supply stoppage of Nexperia chips, the Dutch chipmaker, recently seized by the Netherlands government, warned Japanese automakers on Thursday that it may no longer be able to guarantee chip supply. The chip crisis spreading from Europe to Japan has set off alarm bells across the industry.
Bloomberg reports that the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) has confirmed that its members, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda, have received warnings from Nexperia about chip supply woes and are working with customers to mitigate disruptions.
JAMA cautioned that chip shortages could have a “serious impact” on global auto production and urged governments to reach a “prompt and practical solution.”
“The chips manufactured by the affected manufacturers are important parts used in electronic control units, etc., and we recognize that this incident will have a serious impact on the global production of our member companies,” JAMA wrote in a statement, adding, “We hope that the countries involved will come to a prompt and practical solution.”
Earlier this month, the Dutch government escalated tensions with Beijing by seizing Nexperia under a 1952 law aimed at securing domestic control over semiconductor supply, following U.S. pressure to curb Chinese ownership ties. Nexperia’s Chinese parent, Wingtech Technology, and its China unit have publicly disputed the seizure.
The move escalates frictions between Western countries and China over access to high-end technology such as advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials. China has hit back by restricting rare earth mineral exports to the U.S. as these troubling developments appear to be unfolding before President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia between Oct. 26 and 28. Think of it as leverage before both sides sit down at the negotiating table.
The first signs of Nexperia-related chip disruptions impacting global auto supply chains emerged from Germany on Wednesday following a report from Bild.
The local paper said Volkswagen suspended its Golf production lines at its Wolfsburg factory yesterday.
Production line stoppages will likely impact tens of thousands of employees in Europe’s largest economy. Other automakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Daimler are monitoring the situation, though their production continues, according to Bild.
The latest developments in the Nexperia turmoil that’s now rippling through the global auto sector:
- Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker
- Chipmaker Nexperia’s China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split
- VW Halts Golf Production In Wolfsburg As Chip Shortage Worsens
With the week winding down, the world’s attention turns to Trump-Xi (and also Trump-Modi) meetings to see whether the two global superpowers can ease trade tensions and move toward a potential deal. Naturally, traders will be watching every word closely.
end
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu said to insist PA have no role in Gaza as US pushes Trump’s plan to end war
Israeli TV says PM has recently informed US of several red lines regarding Strip’s future; Trump reportedly pleased he ‘has so far managed to keep both sides in line’ amid ceasefire
By Nava Freiberg Follow
and ToI StaffToday, 3:50 am
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference with US Vice President JD Vance at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, October 22, 2025. (Marc Israel Sellem/POOL)
While meeting Wednesday with US Vice President JD Vance, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed willingness to assist in implementing the next stages of Washington’s Gaza ceasefire and hostage release plan, Israeli television reported, as the Trump administration pushes to advance its proposal for ending the Israel-Hamas war.
Citing American and Israeli officials familiar with the discussions, Channel 12 news said Vance urged Netanyahu to give Washington time to roll out the plan, to which the premier responded by showing a readiness to cooperate in the coming phases.
In a separate report, the network said that Netanyahu outlined several red lines to the US in recent days, including absolute opposition to any Turkish presence in the Gaza Strip and to the Palestinian Authority or Hamas playing a governing role there “the day after” the war. He is also said to have insisted that a full IDF withdrawal could only take place after Hamas is fully disarmed and the Strip demilitarized.
However, an Israeli security official told Channel 12 that Washington views Turkey as essential to the plan’s success and sees no viable alternative to eventual Palestinian Authority involvement, a point that could force Netanyahu into compromise as Washington’s pressure increases.
A source close to US President Donald Trump was quoted by the network as saying that he is pleased “the United States has so far managed to keep both sides in line,” referring to Israel and Hamas.
The network added that Trump’s top envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, departed Israel for Riyadh late Tuesday night, where they met with senior Saudi officials to further rally support for the deal. From Riyadh, they continued to Abu Dhabi on Wednesday for meetings with Emirati officials toward the same goal.
The meetings in both countries were aimed at mobilizing financial, military, and diplomatic backing from Arab states for the deal.
The Channel 12 reporting came after Netanyahu’s office vowed to The Times of Israel earlier Wednesday that “there will be no Turkish involvement” in the planned International Stabilization Force, which Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza envisions will secure the Strip during a transitional postwar period following Israel’s withdrawal and the disarmament of Hamas.
According to a Sky News Arabia report denied by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu and Egypt’s intelligence chief disagreed over potential Turkish involvement during a meeting the previous day. That report also said Netanyahu “completely rejected” the deployment of Palestinian Authority security forces trained by Egypt and Jordan in Gaza, in a reiteration of his stance against having the PA play any role in the enclave.
Rubio due to arrive for multiday visit
Following Vance and the Trump envoys, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was due to arrive in Israel on Thursday, with the State Department saying the purpose of the trip is “to support the successful implementation of President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Conflict in Gaza, which has garnered unprecedented international support.”
“During his visit, the secretary will reaffirm America’s unwavering commitment to Israel’s security and engage with partners to build on the historic momentum towards durable peace and integration in the Middle East,” added a State Department statement.
Rubio is scheduled to be in Israel until Saturday, before then visiting Malaysia, Japan and South Korea.
It was not immediately clear if he would be in Israel at the same time as Vance, who is slated to visit Tel Aviv on Thursday, resulting in major street closures.
Vance on Wednesday toured the City of David National Park near Jerusalem’s Old City tonight, according to a spokesperson for the site. Signing the guestbook at the park, Vance wrote: “Thank you for preserving this place, a global heritage site for all the children of Abraham.”
During his visit, the vice president walked the entire length of the recently opened Pilgrimage Road — a newly excavated tunnel that foundation archaeologists say was used during the Second Temple period (516 BCE–70 CE) by Jewish pilgrims making their way to the Temple Mount, the holiest site for Jews.
Last month, Rubio participated in the opening ceremony of the road, alongside Netanyahu and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.
Rubio’s participation drew attention to controversy over the site’s location in East Jerusalem’s Silwan neighborhood, amid reports at the time that the secretary was supportive of Israel annexing the West Bank in response to Western states recognizing a Palestinian state.
The visit underscored the Trump administration’s continued backing of initiatives viewed by critics as reinforcing Israel’s claims to East Jerusalem, which Palestinians regard as the capital of a future state.
Agencies contributed to this report.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA/TRUMP
Trump Now ‘Fully On Warpath With Russia’ With Oil Sanctions, Medvedev Says
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 11:20 AM
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and close Putin-ally has blasted President Donald Trump’s new sanctions against Russia’s oil giants as an “act of war” which puts the United States on the direct warpath with Russia.
“The US is our enemy, and their talkative ‘peacemaker’ has now fully embarked on the warpath with Russia,” Medvedev, who serves as a top Russian national security official, said. “The decisions taken are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully aligned himself with loony Europe,” he emphasized in the statement.
Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil companies, were slapped with US Treasury sanctions along with dozens of their subsidiaries, resulting in global oil prices to rise by 3% on Thursday. Further repercussions have included India, the largest importer of Russian oil, but mull cutting its purchases.
Trump has frequently said the “war should have never started” and that it’s Joe Biden’s fault, but Medvedev took the Republican president to task on this also, per Russian state media:
He argued that Trump had likely been pressured by both domestic and international hawks into taking a hardline stance, rather than acting out of ideological conviction as was the case with his predecessor, Joe Biden. “But now it’s his conflict,” Medvedev concluded, adding that Russia must focus on achieving its objectives militarily rather than through negotiations.
“Of course they’ll say he couldn’t do otherwise, that he was pressured in Congress, etc.,” Medvedev did concede in the statement.
Still, it remains there’s no clear evidence that the Trump administration has ever brought real pressure to bear on its ally Zelensky to make key territorial concessions and to permanently reject the idea of ever joining NATO.
Instead, Trump has allowed long-range attacks inside Russia, and has even authorized intelligence help for the Ukrainians to attack energy sites deep into Russia.
With these escalations under the Trump White House, Medvedev is arguing that Trump now ‘owns’ the grinding conflict, also after the White House made clear the Budapest summit with Putin is not going to happen.
“I don’t want to have a wasted meeting,” Trump had said earlier this week. “I don’t want to have a waste of time, so we’ll see what happens.” The Kremlin had also said, “preparation is needed, serious preparation” before a meeting comes to fruition.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER.
What happened, what horror, what demonic act just happened in Cleveland Ohio? This Democrat stronghold! “HORROR: 9-year-old Boy and 10-year-old Girl Rape and Scalp Innocent Child in an Incredibly
Terrifying Attack – Pair Charged with Several Felonies, Including Attempted Murder”; Gateway Pundit stunning report: Two children carried out one of the most horrifying attacks imaginable in a crime-
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 22 |
ridden Democrat city.
This is a very disturbing story and horror to a young girl. What is happening in USA? In these Democrat held cities, locations?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘The New York Times reported on Thursday that the two children face several felony counts, including attempted murder, four counts of r*pe, two counts of felonious assault, strangulation, and kidnapping, over an incident that occurred last month in a wooded field in Cleveland, Ohio.
Antavia Kennibrew, the victim’s mother, revealed to WOIO that she dropped her daughter off Sept. 13 at a family member’s home in Cleveland, thinking she would be okay.
But the 5-year-old walked out the front door and was savagely beaten by a group of kids outside.
Kennibrew said that when she found out what had happened, she immediately rushed over and saw Emergency Medical Services tending to her young daughter. The little girl was unresponsive at the time she arrived.
Please be warned that the following details are highly disturbing.
“What I saw was unbelievable,” the girl’s mom explained to Cleveland 19. “My daughter was not my daughter. Her hair was scalped from her head. She had bruises and blood all over her body.”
“Her eyes were filled with blood,” she continued. “Her lips and mouth were filled with blood. Her nails had debris and dirt stuck in it.”
WATCH:
The mom went on to say that her daughter is now having “behavioral problems” because of the attack.
“She is mentally not OK,” she said. “Me not getting justice for my daughter makes me feel like I failed her.”’
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Your last several days explained perfectly by Michael Every
Markets Are Trading As If Every Escalation Automatically De-Escalates
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 11:45 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Everything until now has been a warm-up
As we head deeper into Q4 there is a natural tendency to think about the end of an exhausting year. However, there is a very high probability that the whirlwind of crazy headlines so far in 2025 have just been a warm-up for what is yet to come. After all, the Trump admin is still laying the foundations for a new US and global economy; the reactions to it are at the same stage; the nth order effects haven’t even begun to be felt. However, some of the first pillars are going up.
The Wall Street Journal reports the US has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of European long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, a major red line for Moscow. Trump immediately called the story “FAKE NEWS”, yet the story says, “The unannounced US move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defence Secretary Hegseth to the top US general in Europe, General Grynkewich.” Either the journalists’ chain of comms is wrong or the one between the White House and the Pentagon is – of as vast significance as an attack on Russia using Storm Shadows.
In tandem, the US sanctioned Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil for the first time, a major economic statecraft escalation that has seen oil prices move around 4% higher in response. That’s as a third European refinery that handles Russian oil, in Bratislava, Slovakia, went up in flames days after ones in Romania and Hungary. That cannot be a coincidence.
Against this backdrop, Putin just oversaw a readiness test of Russia’s nuclear forces. Europe and the UK may be working on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire option to offer to Trump and Putin, but the real muscles are being flexed elsewhere (or inside Europe by others).
Trump also threatened Spain again for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defence.
In the Middle East, a new US plan is to split Gaza into two zones, one controlled by Israel and the other by Hamas until it can be disarmed. The former zone will get rapid reconstruction and financial aid from the Saudis and UAE – though PM Netanyahu made clear no Turkish troops will be allowed. Market threats from the region have receded, though Iranian attempts to restart their nuclear plans still linger on. Broader US-backed opportunities may soon arise.
In LatAm, ‘Trump beats the drums of war for direct action in Venezuela’, says the Washington Post, as “some see the ultimate goal as toppling President Maduro.” The US just widened its campaign against alleged drug boats with a strike on the Pacific side of the continent; and if Russian energy is going to be throttled, Venezuela’s looks even more attractive. Meanwhile, the FT says investors are betting on Argentine peso devaluation after this weekend’s elections, with forward contracts indicating a 12% drop despite the $40bn US support package.
The US is considering broad software curbs on China. That would escalate their trade dispute, which becomes a war 1 November when tariffs hit 155%. Markets are trading as if every escalation automatically de-escalates. There is logic to that, but it isn’t a natural law.
Indeed, the South China Morning Post notes ‘As China’s leaders chart the next 5-year plan, they hear echoes from long ago’, where “Growing geopolitical challenges of today resemble those faced in the 1950s as Beijing seeks to navigate a complex new security landscape.” If you think the 1950s was an era in which China de-escalated ‘because markets’, then you really don’t know anything about the place at all.
The same paper notes ‘US fuels brain drain to China with Trump’s anti-science ‘Cultural Revolution’’ as “Chinese-American researchers are finding similarities with chaotic period under Mao Zedong that targeted intellectuals in China’. That’s as Harvard slashes its Ph.D. admission slots rather than firing huge numbers of its own recently hired and highly-paid non-academic admin staff.
With rumors that a US-India trade deal will be struck by end-month, where US tariffs will fall to 15% from 50% and India buy more energy and non-GMO agri, we have an official indication today that Delhi may buy more oil: we have to wait and see about the rest, which would be extremely significant in many contexts.
The US is talking to South Korea about the $350bn investment it pledged with its trade deal. Rather than offering it a dollar swapline, which Seoul had suggested might be needed, the focus is instead on getting the right mix of FDI, loans, and guarantees. This will be the template for Japan (where new PM Takaichi is saying she will buy more US pick-ups, soybeans, and LNG), the Middle East, and Europe. For Australia it’s easier: superfunds are going to invest $1 trillion Stateside by 2035, putting a vast chunk of non-property retirement cash in US hands and ensuring Down Under understands what’s going down, geopolitically.
In Europe, an apt snapshot of France in 2025 is that the Louvre’s surveillance cameras apparently pointed the wrong way, allowing the French crown jewels to be stolen. Equally, the museum’s director offered to resign but Macron refused to accept it: Carry On France. And in Germany, VW is stopping production of some product lines next week and reportedly being short up to €11bn due to Chinese competition, as Airbus opens a new assembly line… in China. Meanwhile, Von der Leyen gave another Gaullist speech about green tech, pledging:
- To introduce a “made in Europe” criteria for public procurement worth 14% of EU GDP: that’s a huge non-tariff barrier.
- To ensure new FDI is “truly in Europe’s interest”, not for others or elsewhere: but what about outbound FDI?
- Stepped up support for some strategic sectors to say “You are critical to Europe’s future. And your future will be made in Europe. That is critical for us.”: but does this mean tariffs and subsidies?
That was as the EU was forced to plan immediate changes to its sustainability law requiring firms operating there to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains or face fines of 5% of global turnover following the US and Qatar making clear their vital LNG exports to Europe would be at risk under that legislation. “Strategic autonomy” anyone?
Meanwhile, after the last surprising set of budget data, US Treasury analysis finds the country is on course to narrow its fiscal deficit ahead – though that projection clashes with IMF estimates.
That possibility, plus the picture of higher geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts, upside risks to energy prices, worries over a US-China trade war choking off dollar flows to it with a lag, massive inward investment into the US from multiple sources, bubble warnings from key figures, and the looming change at the helm in the Fed all point to markets primed for significant volatility ahead – and not necessarily on the easy-to-follow path seen in 2025 so far. Indeed, even gold was down for a third day yesterday, though it held the key $4,000 level.
Like I said, in a great many respects we are just getting warmed up.
END
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1593 DOWN 0.0014 PTS OR 14 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 152.53 UP 0.597 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3318 DOWN .0003 OR 3 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3993 UP 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.65 PTS OR 0.22%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 186.21 PTS OR 0.72%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.09%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 186.21 PTS OR 0.72%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.65 POINTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.09 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 666.18 PTS OR 1.34%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4122,00
silver:$49.10
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.86 UP 19 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.964% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.666% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.083 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.110 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.368 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5743 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1606 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 basis points
USA/Japan: 152.69 UP 0.711 OR YEN IS DOWN 71 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4220 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.222 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0004 OR 4 BASIS pts to 1.3985
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.1227 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.1239
TURKISH LIRA: 41.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.666 UP 2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.088 DOWN 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.987% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.571 UP 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.472 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4147.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 49.38
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 63.57 PTS OR 0.67%
GERMAN DAX: UP 56.66 pts or 0.23%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 18.91pts or 0.23%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 10.60 pts or 0.07%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 172.29or 0.42%
WTI Oil price 61.53 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.75 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 81.45 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 5/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.087 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.654 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1616 UP 0.00069OR 9 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3323 DOWN .0027 OR 27 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4320 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2300 UP 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.660 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.089 DOWN 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.56 UP 0.574 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3988 DOWN 0.0002 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 2 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR FALLING OUT OF BED!
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.71
Brent OIL: 65.78
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.001
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 PTS to 4.583%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.489: UP 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.093 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.671 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.73 UP 6 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.96GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.26 UP 0 AND 24/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,120.00(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 48.94 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 144.70 OR 0.31%
NASDAQ 100 UP 218.41 PTS OR 0.88%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.28 DOWN 1.32 PTS OR 7.10%
GLD: $ 378.79 UP 1.51 PTS OR 0.40%
SLV/ $44.18 UP 0.30PTS OR OR 0.68%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 206.38 PTS OR 0.69%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘
“Everything’s Up” Amid Geopolitical Chaos
WRAP UP
Stocks rally and bonds sold ahead of CPI, while oil surges on US/Russia tensions – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 04:11 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: Trump and Xi to meet next Thursday; US may probe China’s 2020 trade deal; Macron wants EU to use strongest trade tool on China; US sanctions Russia oil majors; Chinese oil majors suspend Russian oil buys; US may take stakes or provide funding in quantum computing; Japan’s RENGO seeking wage hikes of 5%; Soft 5yr TIPS auction; Weak TSLA earnings, but stock fades losses.
- COMING UP: Data: Japanese CPI (Sep), UK Retail Sales (Sep), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Oct), US CPI (Sep). Suspended Releases: US Build Permits (Sept), US New Home Sales (Sep). Events: CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th) Credit Review: Moody’s on France Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; ECB’s Cipollone and Nagel Supply: Australia Earnings: NatWest, Porsche, Sanofi, Eni, Saab, Procter & Gamble
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MARKET WRAP
US equity indices firmed on Thursday, following the downside on Wednesday. There wasn’t a specific headline trigger, and equity futures were in the ascendancy since the start of European trading. EV maker Tesla (TSLA) completely pared the losses incurred in Wednesday’s afterhours trading following its earnings report, which was received poorly by investors. Healthcare names came under pressure after an update from Molina (MOH), which cut its profit guidance amid a rise in medical costs. Quantum computing names were bid on suggestions that the US was mulling equity stakes; later, Yahoo Finance reported that the administration is not necessarily considering taking equity stakes, with sources stating that companies have approached the White House with proposals, but any potential investment (possibly via warrants or loans) would aim for taxpayer returns and use leftover Chips Act funds. Energy names, meanwhile, were higher, tracking the gains in crude benchmarks, which surged after the US sanctioned Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war, triggering expectations that India will cut Russian crude imports to near zero and potentially pave the way for a US-India trade deal. The bid in crude came to the detriment of Treasuries, where yields ticked higher over the course of the session, though there wasn’t much reaction to a soft 5yr TIPS sale. In afternoon trading, stocks were bumped higher again after it was reported that Trump will meet with China’s President Xi in Asia next Thursday. Elsewhere, the White House said a meeting between US President Trump and Russia’s President Putin is not completely off the table, nor is a meeting between Putin and Zelensky; Trump is reportedly frustrated by the lack of concrete progress from Russia and wants to see tangible steps toward ending the war. Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming risk events, by way of US CPI data on Friday, next week’s Fed meeting (25bps rate cut is being priced by money markets, with many suggesting that the Fed may also end QT), next week’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi; ahead of that meeting, the USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent will be in Malaysia on Friday.
US
EXISTING HOME SALES: US existing home sales rose 1.5% to 4.06mln in September (exp. 4.06mln, prev. 4.0mln); the inventory of homes for sale stood at 1.55mln units, 4.6 months’ worth (unchanged vs the previous 4.6 months’ worth). The national median home price for existing homes was up +2.1% Y/Y at USD 415,200. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the rise to a seven-month high is likely a reflection of lower mortgage rates feeding through, also noting that the 30-year rate on new mortgages was down to 6.4% by mid-September (vs over 6.9% in early June). Pantheon says that the historical relationship between rates and sales suggests a significant further recovery in existing home sales in the months ahead, which will be aided by the recovery in the supply of existing homes on the market. Still, the consultancy expects sales to stay below pre-COVID levels due to limited scope for further mortgage rate declines, a weak labour market, and poor affordability, with typical monthly payments at about 40% of disposable income versus 25% in the 2010s, requiring modest home price declines to revive demand. Pantheon thinks slight falls in home prices are probably required to get the market moving again, adding that it sees prices resuming their downtrend soon, as the fleeting boost from the recent drop in mortgage rates fades
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLE 10 TICKS LOWER AT 113-15+
T-notes were lower across the curve in response to rallying oil prices while traders await US CPI on Friday. At settlement, 2-year +4.0bps at 3.484%, 3-year +4.1bps at 3.487%, 5-year +4.9bps at 3.602%, 7-year +4.8bps at 3.780%, 10-year +4.2bps at 3.995%, 20-year +3.6bps at 4.547%, 30-year +3.8bps at 4.577%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.7bps at 3.205%, 3-year BEI +1.7bps at 2.627%, 5-year BEI +1.2bps at 2.362%, 10-year BEI +1.5bps at 2.287%, 30-year BEI +1.2bps at 2.226%.
THE DAY: T-notes were lower across the curve in response to rallying oil prices while traders await US CPI on Friday. The surge in oil prices followed the US sanctioning major Russian Energy companies; reports suggest that Chinese state oil firms were suspending Russian seaborne oil purchases in fear of sanctions, while the sanctions also bolstered expectations that India will cut Russian oil purchases to zero. Elsewhere, traders are very attentive to the US CPI report due on Friday, one of the only pieces of government data we will receive during the government shutdown. The data will help refine expectations for next week’s Fed meeting, where the central bank is likely to lower rates by 25bps. There will also be attention on the balance sheet, after Fed Chair Powell alluded to upcoming changes with the level of reserves approaching an ample level, a level that the Fed has long said would mark the end of the balance sheet drawdown. However, the Fed does want to revert to a Treasury-only balance sheet, so it would not be surprising if it continues to allow mortgage-backed securities to continue to roll off the balance sheet, currently at USD 35bln a month, while reinvesting the full amount of USTs that mature each month – currently it allows USD 5bln to roll off the balance sheet.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US Treasury to sell USD 69bln of 2-year notes on October 27th, USD 70bln 5-year notes on October 27th and USD 44bln of 7-year notes on October 28th; all to settle October 31st.
- US to sell USD30bln in 2-year FRN’s on October 29th, to settle October 31st.
Bills
- US to sell USD 86bln in 13-week bills and USD 77bln in 26-week bills on October 27th.
- To sell USD 95bln in 6-week bills and USD 50bln in 52-week bills on October 28th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Oct 24bps (prev. 25bps), Dec 49bps (prev. 48bps), January 65bps (prev. 64bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 7bln (prev. 4bln) across 15 counterparties (prev. 8)
- NY Fed Repo op demand at USD 3bln (prev. 0bln)
- EFFR at 4.11% (prev. 4.11%), volumes at USD 91bln (prev. 85bln) on October 22nd.
- SOFR at 4.21% (prev. 4.23%), volumes at USD 2.956tln (prev. 2.957tln) on October 22nd.
CRUDE
WTI (Z5) SETTLES 3.29 HIGHER AT 61.79/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLES USD 3.40 HIGHER AT 65.99/BBL
Oil prices rose after the US sanctioned Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war, triggering expectations that India will cut Russian crude imports to near zero and potentially pave the way for a US-India trade deal. Overnight, the sanctions lifted energy stocks in China and Australia, but pressured Indian refiners. Europe plans to impose its own measures, including a ban on Russian LNG imports. The broader commodity rally followed a WSJ report late Wednesday, which stated that the US was to allow Ukraine to use European long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia; President Trump has since denied the report, calling it “fake news,” adding that the US has “nothing to do” with such missiles, after reports that Ukraine could use British-made Storm Shadow missiles with US targeting data. Separately, Ukraine confirmed that its military hit Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery (342k BPD capacity) overnight. As the US day got underway, Reuters reported that Chinese State oil majors were suspending Russian seaborne oil purchases due to worries related to Western sanctions, sending crude futures back towards highs. Crude futures were then knocked off highs following remarks from Kuwait’s oil minister, who said that OPEC was ready to offset any shortages in the market by rolling back output cuts; he also spoke about how oil demand is shifting more towards the Middle East and Gulf regions. In other supply-related news, production at the Ekofisk 2/4 K oil and gas platform in the North Sea is shut, according to reports citing operator ConocoPhillips (COP). Elsewhere, JPMorgan estimates that China has been stockpiling oil for months, adding 160mln barrels in 2024 — its largest increase since 2020 — bringing reserves to about 1.25bln barrels; the bank says Russia supplied 17% of its imports, much of it stored.
EQUITIES
- CLOSES: SPX +0.58% at 6,738, NDX +0.88% at 25,097, DJI +0.31% at 46,735, RUT +1.27% at 2,483.
- SECTORS: Energy +1.28%, Industrials +1.28%, Technology +0.99%, Materials +0.95%, Consumer Discretionary +0.75%, Financials +0.26%, Health +0.04%, Real Estate -0.01%, Communication Services -0.04%, Utilities -0.05%, Consumer Staples -0.40%
- EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.49% at 5,667, Dax 40 +0.28% at 24,219, FTSE 100 +0.67% at 9,579, CAC 40 +0.23% at 8,226, FTSE MIB +0.41% at 42,382, IBEX 35 +0.07% at 15,792, PSI +0.58% at 8,354, SMI -0.40% at 12,564, AEX +0.82% at 974.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTIW), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Quantum Computing (QUBT): Trump’s admin in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing firms, via WSJ,
- Rigetti (RGTI) says it is in ongoing talks with the US government on quantum funding, via CNBC.
- Tesla (TSLA): Profit missed
- IBM (IBM): Shares hit by sales in hybrid cloud unit, which grew c. 14%, decelerating from 16% growth in Q2
- Molina Healthcare (MOH): EPS way short of exp. & slashed profit guidance amid tough environment; Humana (HUM), Centene (CNC) weighed on by MOH.
- Medpace Holdings (MEDP): Top & bottom line topped; Raised FY outlook
- QuantumScape (QS): Shallower loss per shr. than exp. & started shipping B1 samples of its QSE-5 cell
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS): EPS & rev. beat; Adds $2bln to stock buyback prog. & raises annual div.
- Honeywell (HON): Solid Q metrics & lifted FY profit view
- American Airlines (AAL): Shallower loss per shr. than exp. & stellar next Q & FY profit guide
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Dismissed 3 offers from PSKY, incl. 1 that provided CEO Zaslav a position in leading the combined Co.
- Moderna (MRNA): Phase 3 study of investigational cytomegalovirus vaccine did not meet primary efficacy endpoint
- Roper (ROP): Guidance underwhelmed
- Coca Cola (KO) expects impairment charge of c. USD 1bln during Q4 related to the sale of a portion of interest in its bottling operations in Africa.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Drive tweets they are working with Uber (UBER) to advance autonomous vehicle development.
- SuperMicro (SMCI) prelim Q1 update disappointed, seeing the stock tumble.
US FX WRAP
The Dollar Index was little changed on Thursday in risk-on trade, which saw Antipodes outperform and Yen underperform. For the buck, UST yields were higher throughout the session while attention largely turns to the US CPI on Friday. Amid the government shutdown, Geopolitical tensions were high, namely between Russia and the US, after fresh sanctions were announced on Russia. Participants will also be eyeing any updates from the talks in Malaysia between USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday.
The Euro was also little changed, with price action focused on more risk-sensitive currencies today. Nonetheless, overnight, ECB’s Kazaks said “it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut” – comments which are in contrast to Villeroy (cut more likely than hike) and Kocher (sees equal chance). On trade, French President Macron has reportedly been calling on the EU to use its strongest trade tool, the Anti-coercion instrument, against China. Meanwhile, EZ Consumer Confidence beat expectations at -14.2 (exp. -15.0, prev. -14.9).
The Yen was sold on Thursday amid higher UST yields and US equity prices, which offset strength seen in the morning following reports that Japan’s RENGO will be seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026 Shunto negotiations.
The offshore Yuan saw strength vs the buck on reports that Trump will be meeting with Chinese President Xi next week, while after-hours on Wednesday, he said he thinks he will make a deal with Xi. However, the NYT also reported that the US is to probe China’s 2020 trade deal compliance, which would likely complicate current relations, which are seemingly on edge given China’s export controls and a touted response from the US.
The Pound was sold vs the Dollar and Euro with soft CPI earlier in the week still taking its toll, while BoE’s Dhingra (Dove) spoke, warning that tariffs will lead to a reduction in overall growth but with minor downward price pressure in the medium term.
Antipodes benefited from the rally in stocks, with peaks seen after the WH announced the date for the Presidential meeting between the US and China, given that both Australia and New Zealand are key trading partners with China.
CAD was flat vs the buck despite the rally in crude prices. Canadian Retail Sales rose 1.0% M/M, in line with expectations, but the core retail sales (ex-autos) missed expectations. StatCan also expects September retail sales to have fallen 0.7% M/M in the preliminary estimate. Meanwhile, Canadian PM Carney is looking to meet with Chinese President Xi next week during his trip to Asia.
KRW was sold vs the Dollar after the BoK maintained rates overnight as expected; however, the decision was not unanimous, with board member Shin stating a rate cut is needed to support growth. It also said it will maintain a rate cut stance to mitigate downside risk to economic growth. Four members also said the door for rate cuts should be open for the near future, but two said current rates should be maintained.
In EMs, MXN firmed amid stronger-than-expected retail sales data, but the first half of October inflation data was soft. MXN was likely supported by the broader risk sentiment on Thursday. BRL also saw strength, likely also supported by risk sentiment, while President Lula said he will seek a fourth term in next year’s election. CLP rallied, tracking gains in copper prices, but COP outperformed on the surge in energy prices following fresh Russia sanctions. TRY saw mild gains while the CBRT cut rates by 100bps as expected to 39.50%, noting the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved.
USA DATA RELEASES FOR TODAY
existing home sales increase as mortgage rates drop
(zerohedge)
Existing Home Sales Rise Off Record Lows As Mortgage Rates Drop
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 10:12 AM
With mortgage rates tumbling, housing market participants were disappointed this week by the lack of enthusiasm by homebuyers to apply for mortgages (though there was a decent bounce in refi activity). This morning’s existing home sales data (admittedly for September) will give us a further glimpse into the reality oh home-buying vs home-selling as the gap between current mortgage rates and the average existing mortgage rates remains vast…
Source: Bloomberg
Analysts (rightfully, given the shift in rates) expected a bounce, albeit small (+1.5%), in existing home sales in September and they nailed it (which is a very modest bounce to say the least). On the bright side, existing home sales are up 4.2% YoY – the fastest pace since Dec 2024
Source: Bloomberg
Total Existing Home Sales SAAR moved modestly off the near-record-low levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Last month’s improved sales built on the flicker of momentum that started across both the existing- and new-home markets in August.
Mortgage rates started falling then and continued to decline in September.
Source: Bloomberg
The latest drop may bode well for sales in the coming months as homes typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”
“Demand is beginning to stir” as homes get slightly more affordable and buyers and sellers on the margin come back into the market, according to a blog post earlier this month from Odeta Kushi, an economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp.
However, any rebound is expected to be slow. Despite their recent dip, rates remain almost double what they were at the end of 2021.
The median sales price climbed 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200, continuing a run of annual price gains stretching back to mid-2023.
Year-over-year price growth averaged well over 4% in 2024.
Last month, individual investors or second-home buyers bought 15% of homes, compared with 21% a month earlier.
That “volatility” could be because investors are anticipating a downshift in rental prices going forward, Yun said on a call with reporters.
One positive sign, especially for buyers, has been the increase in homes on the market.
Last month, the supply of previously owned homes for sale surged 14% from a year ago to 1.55 million, one of the highest levels since before the pandemic.
First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of closings, compared with 28% in the prior month as the affordability crunch may be slowly easing.
Two-thirds of the US’s most populous metropolitan areas were buyer’s markets last month, meaning sellers outnumber buyers by at least 10%, according to research from online housing marketplace Redfin.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARY FOR TODAY
a must must read
Nick Giamburno/InternationalMan
America’s Sixth Default Is Coming – What It Means For Gold And Your Wealth
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
Every time the US government has faced an existential financial crisis in its history, it has chosen to change the rules rather than honor its promises in full… usually by replacing gold or silver with paper.
From the War of 1812 when interest payments were missed, to the Lincoln’s Greenbacks, to Roosevelt voiding gold clauses in 1933, the end of silver redemption in 1968, and Nixon closing the gold window in 1971, Washington has defaulted five times before—often by shifting the terms of payment rather than admitting outright failure.
There’s no doubt these episodes were defaults. To claim otherwise would be like trying to unilaterally change the terms of your dollar-denominated mortgage or credit card bill so that you could pay your liabilities with Argentine pesos or Zimbabwe dollars—and then pretending that somehow it wasn’t a default.
The US government is essentially telling its creditors the same thing Darth Vader once said: “I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.”
Just like in Star Wars, the message is clear—Washington will change the rules whenever it needs to. Creditors may get paid, but not in the way they were promised, and certainly not in the way they expected.
Today, the US government is once again in an existential financial bind. The national debt is unmanageable, federal spending is locked on an upward path, and interest on that debt has already surged past $1 trillion a year. At this pace, interest could soon overtake Social Security as the single largest item in the federal budget.
The largest expenditures are entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. No politician will cut them—in fact, they’ll keep growing. Tens of millions of Baby Boomers, nearly a quarter of the population, are moving into retirement. Cutting benefits is political suicide.
Defense spending, already massive, is also off-limits. With the most precarious geopolitical environment since World War 2, military spending isn’t going down—it’s going up.
Welfare programs are similarly untouchable.
The only way to meaningfully reduce spending would be to slash entitlements, dismantle the welfare state, shut down hundreds of foreign military bases, and repay a large portion of the national debt to lower the interest cost. That would require a leader willing to restore a limited Constitutional Republic.
However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.
Here’s the bottom line: Washington cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.
Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.
Tax revenue won’t save the day either.
Even if tax rates went to 100%, it would not be enough to stop the debt from growing.
According to Forbes, there are around 806 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $5.8 trillion.
Even if Washington confiscated 100% of billionaire wealth, it would barely fund a single year of spending—and it wouldn’t do a thing to stop the unstoppable trajectory of debt and deficits.
That means interest expense will keep exploding. It has already surpassed the defense budget and is on track to exceed Social Security soon. At that point, interest could consume most federal tax revenue.
The old accounting tricks and fiat games won’t hide the reality for much longer.
In short, the skyrocketing interest bill is now an urgent threat to the US government’s solvency. I have no doubt Washington will soon find itself unable to meet its obligations once again.
So the question now is: what will the sixth default look like?
I don’t think the sixth default will be a dramatic, one-day event like in 1933 or 1971. It will be a slow-motion process: steady debasement of the dollar to cover a debt burden that cannot be serviced honestly. And just like in the past, Washington and its lackeys in the media will never admit it’s a default.
Unlike the past, the US no longer has obligations tied to gold or silver. Everything is denominated in fiat currency that the Federal Reserve can create without limit.
The mechanics are different, but the outcome will be the same: creditors will get stiffed with money worth far less than what was promised.
After the 1971 default, which cut the dollar’s last tie to gold, the unspoken promise was that Washington would be a responsible steward of its fiat currency.
At the core of that promise was the illusion that the Federal Reserve would act independently of political pressures. The idea was simple: without at least the appearance of independence, investors would see the Fed for what it is—a funding arm for spendthrift politicians—and confidence in the dollar would collapse.
That illusion is now shattering.
The government must issue ever-growing amounts of debt while keeping rates low to contain exploding interest costs.
That’s where the Federal Reserve comes in.
Backed into a corner, Washington will force the Fed to slash rates, buy Treasuries, and launch wave after wave of monetary easing. These measures will debase the dollar while destroying the illusion of Fed independence.
That’s why I believe the collapse of the Fed’s credibility as an independent institution will define the sixth default.
One of the clearest signs is Trump’s push to consolidate power over the Fed.
Let’s be clear: central banks were never “independent.” They exist to siphon wealth from the public through inflation and funnel it to the politically connected. The Fed’s independence was always a mirage—and now it’s disappearing fast.
Trump is simply doing what any leader in his position would do. No one believes China’s central bank is independent of Xi. If any nation faced a similar crisis, its central bank would fall in line with government demands.
I expect Trump will get his way with the Fed. The Fed will bend to his demands, debasing the dollar to keep the debt burden from spiraling out of control. He will either force Powell to get in line or replace him outright, stacking the Fed with loyalists. The result will be money printing on a scale we’ve never seen before.
Trump’s efforts are already starting to work. At Jackson Hole, Powell admitted that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” signaling that rate cuts could come soon.
And that’s exactly what happened. On September 17, the Fed cut rates by 25bps and indicated more to come.
Further, Stephen Miran, Trump’s most recent successful nominee to the Federal Reserve Board, has been pushing the idea of what he calls the Fed’s “third mandate.”
Traditionally, the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Miran’s proposed third mandate would be for the Fed to “moderate long-term interest rates.”
What that really means is that the Fed would openly finance the federal government by creating new dollars to buy long-term debt, keeping yields artificially low. In other words, the so-called third mandate is an explicit admission that the Fed is no longer independent. It would become a political tool used to fund government spending.
Without this support, massive federal spending would flood the market with Treasuries, pushing interest rates much higher. But with the Fed stepping in, Washington can keep borrowing while holding rates down—at least for a while. The catch is that this comes at the cost of debasing the dollar. Eventually, that debasement will force investors to demand higher yields anyway, which only worsens the problem.
I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Fed fully capitulates, shattering the illusion of independence once and for all.
Mike Wilson, CIO at Morgan Stanley, recently made it explicit:
“The Fed does have an obligation to help the government fund itself.”
“I’d be nervous if the Fed was totally independent. The Fed needs to help us get out of this deficit problem.”
This is the essence of the sixth default.
It won’t come through missed payments or rewritten contracts. It will come through the collapse of the myth that the Fed is independent. Once monetary policy is fully political, the fallout will be enormous—for the dollar, for Treasuries, and for gold.
And it’s not happening in isolation. As Washington sinks deeper into debt, the rest of the world sees exactly what’s coming. Central banks are moving to protect themselves. I believe they know debasement is inevitable, and they don’t intend to be left holding the bag. Their response has been clear: abandon paper promises and move back toward gold.
In short, the sixth default won’t be a headline—it will be a bleed-out.
When the dollar is quietly debased and the Fed’s “independence” finally cracks, it will be too late to reposition.
If you’ve read this far, you already sense the window is closing. Do not wait for confirmation from the evening news.
The question now is not if but how this crisis will unfold, and whether you’ll be on the losing end of it.
That’s why I’ve prepared a special report, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… and the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.
Inside, you’ll learn what risks are ahead, what they mean for your wealth and personal freedom, and the practical steps you can take today to protect yourself. Click here to get your free PDF copy.
end
OBAMACARE
WOW! HUGE INCREASES IN OBAMACARE PREMIUMS
MUST READ THIS!!!
ObamaCare Premiums Are Going Up, New Figures Show
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Premiums for Affordable Care Act plans are rising in 2026, according to new figures from 12 states.
Premiums are set to increase by thousands of dollars for the average family, according to the data, which was published by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
That includes a $20,700 annual jump for a 60-year-old couple in Oregon and a $32,600 annual spike for a family of four in Vermont with $130,000 annual income, according to Oct. 20 posts on X by Gideon Lukens, a senior fellow and director of research at the center.
As Zachary Stieber details below for The Epoch Times, the enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, is set to open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.
Some states have been allowing people to preview plans.
The federal government has not published prices for the 28 state exchanges it runs.
The higher prices stem from Congress not reaching a deal to extend broad subsidies for Obamacare, which are slated to expire at the end of 2025. The subsidies come in the form of refundable tax credits. The credits had for years been available to poorer individuals not eligible for Medicaid or other public insurance, before Congress in 2021 loosened eligibility criteria. Lawmakers extended the broadened criteria in the Inflation Reduction Act.
KFF, a nonprofit that analyzes health data, said in September that if the broadened subsidies expire, premiums would more than double on average in 2026 to $1,904 from $888.
Americans across income brackets would see increases, although those with little income would see maximum increases of about $82 a month.
The majority of the more than 24 million people enrolled in a plan currently receive the credits.
A man near an office with a sign about Obamacare, or the Affordable Care Act, in Miami, Fla., in an undated file photograph. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Permanently extending the enhanced credits would increase the number of people with health insurance by 3.8 million in 2035, but add $350 billion to the federal deficit in the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said.
Congress is in the midst of a shutdown after parties failed to reach an agreement on a funding bill.
Some lawmakers have been trying to extend the Obamacare subsidies or otherwise alter the health insurance system.
Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the Senate Republican majority leader, said recently he is open to discussing Obamacare with Democrats, but only if the shutdown ends.
“I will not negotiate under hostage conditions, nor will I pay a ransom. Period,” he said.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, told a briefing on Monday that the parties must find a way to reopen the government with an agreement that extends the Obamacare subsidies.
“In Idaho, 100,000 Americans are at risk of losing their health care if the Affordable Care Act tax credits expire because it will become unaffordable for them,” he said.
end
wow!!
Insane Mafia-Linked NBA Gambling Scandal Erupts; Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups Arrested Among Dozens Of Alleged Riggers
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 01:20 PM
What we know:
- Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones have been arrested
- The years-long investigation spanning 11 states has resulted in over 30 arrests
- The Bonnano, Gambino and Genovese organized crime families were allegedly involved as enforcers, taking a cut of the winnings
- There was an alleged robbery at gunpoint to obtain a rigged shuffling machine, along with extortions
- Defendants laundered their proceeds through cash exchanges, multiple shell companies, and cryptocurrency transfers
- Rozier allegedly manipulated betting results by leaving a game early
Over 30 people have been indicted after an FBI investigation uncovered an explosive gambling scandal rocking the NBA.
Legendary Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and former NBA player Damon Jones were all arrested as part of the investigation into illegal gambling operations that included x-ray tables that read cards, special contact lenses, rigged shuffling machines and more – swindling people out of ‘tens of millions of dollars.’
Billups was charged in connection with an illegal poker operation tied to ‘la costa nostra,’ according to the FBI, while Rozier allegedly manipulated his performance during an NBA game to sway betting results.
New York FBI Assistant Director Christopher Raia says that Trail Blazers head coach and NBA Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups was used by the Italian mafia to attract poker players who would then play rigged games with x-ray technology. pic.twitter.com/YQzZMQ6MoD— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 23, 2025
According to the NY Post:
Rozier is one of the six defendants in the NBA-related investigation, each of whom was charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, per Nocella.
His specific allegations tie back to a March 23, 2023 contest against the Pelicans when Rozier exited after playing the first 9:36 and did not return due to a foot issue in what would be his final tilt of the season.
He tallied five points, four rebounds, two assists and one steal in that time, and one X user posted at the time how they allegedly had been tipped off that Rozier would exit early.
That knowledge would affect prop betting, where gamblers bet on a player’s statistics for a game.
An “unexpected” amount of bets came in on Rozier’s Under for that game, per ESPN, which resulted in some sportsbooks preventing further wagers on his prop lines.
The NBA investigated the issue and did not punish Rozier.
In a Thursday statement, the NBA announced that Rozier and Billups were being place on immediate leave.
“We are in the process of reviewing the federal indictments announced today. Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups are being placed on immediate leave from their teams, and we will continue to cooperate with the relevant authorities. We take these allegations with the utmost seriousness, and the integrity of our game remains our top priority.”
Riggers And The Mafia
According to US Attorney Joseph Nocella, Jr., the scheme had deep mafia ties involving Billups going back to 2019, with defendants being accused of using wireless cheating technology in their rigged games in places including the Hamptons, Miami, Las Vegas and Manhattan. Members of the Bonnano, Gambino and Genevese organized crime families have been fingered in the indictment – taking a cut of the rigged games and enforcing the collection of debts.
Victims were promised the chance to gamble alongside NBA greats – with the former pro athletes known as ‘face cards’ while the victims were referred to as ‘fish,’ according to Nocella.
“What the victims, the fish, didn’t know, is that everybody else at the poker game, from the dealer to the players – including the face cards – were in on the scam,” said Nocella. “Once the game was underway, the defendants fleeced the victims out of tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars per game.”
How they pulled it off
According to the FBI, the alleged fraud included self-shuffling machines that had “been secretly altered in order to read the cards on the deck, predict which player on the table had the best poker hand, and relay the information to an offsite operator,” said Nocella, adding “The offsite operator sent the information via cell phone back to a co-conspirator at the table and that person at the table was known as the ‘quarterback.’ The ‘quarterback’ then signaled secretly the information he had received to others at the table and together they used that information in order to win their games and to cheat the victims.”
The scheme also allegedly used poker chip tray analyzers, special contact lenses or glasses that can read pre-marked cards, and an X-ray table that can read face down cards on the table.
“The fraud is mind-boggling. … We’re talking about tens of millions of dollars in fraud and theft and robbery across a multi-years investigation,” said FBI Director Kash Patel, while Nocella called the case involving Rozier “one of the most brazen sports corruption schemes since online sports betting became widely legalized in the United States. This scheme is an insider sports betting conspiracy that exploited confidential information about National Basketball Association athletes and teams.”
Nocella said the indictment that led to the arrest of Billups, Jones and more than 30 people overall involved “a nationwide scheme to rig illegal poker games. These defendants … used high-tech cheating technology to steal millions of dollars from victims in underground poker games that were secretly fixed.”
Billups was arrested in Oregon on Thursday morning, one day after a season-opening loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Rozier was also arrested Thursday morning at a hotel in Orlando, Florida, where the Heat lost their season opener to the Magic. Rozier did not play in the game due to a coach’s decision. Billups, Rozier and Jones are expected to make a court appearance later Thursday, according to a Justice Department spokesperson. –USA Today
Meanwhile, the Post reports that former Pistons guard Malik Beasley came under investigation by a US District Attorney’s Office regarding allegations regarding gambling on games and prop betting, while a source told the outlet in August that he’s still a subject in a federal probe.
end
“As If Millions Of Shorts Suddenly Cried Out In Terror”: Trump Admin To Take Equity Stakes In Quantum Computing Firms
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 11:51 PM
A few days ago, when we were looking at the rapidly growing list of companies that Uncle Sam is “buying”, we thought to ourselves: these are all the companies that value investors had long ago left for dead, and which had seen a dramatic buildup in shorts… who were summarily nuked when the White House, very much like Reddit’s Wall Street Apes, decided to spark a meltup frenzy to keep the high-beta junk names soaring in what has been a tidal, rolling short squeeze from one sector to another and back again.
Indeed, as Bank of America shows, in just the past few weeks the US government had taken equity stakes in tech, pharma, rare earths and metals (as an side, the US government investing in stocks is not a new phenomenon, but has been more prevalent for bailouts than strategic investments in recent decade).
So, when looking at the above chart, we said to ourselves that if there was one sector that was ripe for White House “investment”, it would be the quantum names: with short interest in the 20% range, these names – some of which may even not be frauds in the long run and end up successful in a decade or two – were long ago left for dead by “serious investors”, and were just begging for a spark to trigger a massive meltup.
If only we had put our money where our mouth was… we would have a whole lot more money because late on Wednesday, the WSJ reported that the Trump’s Commerce Department was in talks with several quantum-computing companies to buy equity stakes in exchange for federal funding, a signal that the Trump administration is expanding its interventions in what it sees as critical segments of the economy.
The deals with the quantum companies haven’t been completed and might change. A Commerce document soliciting funding applications says the deals might include warrants, licenses to intellectual property, royalties or revenue sharing in addition to equity stakes.
Companies including IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum – among the most shorted companies in the world – are discussing the government becoming a shareholder as part of agreements to get funding earmarked for promising technology companies, according to people familiar with the matter. Other companies such as Quantum Computing and Atom Computing are considering similar arrangements.
Yet while in theory such an arrangement might make sense, in principle one wonders if Trump isn’t really fucking with the short and hoping to spark sequential squeezes across all high beta segments of the market and to keep stocks afloat that way. We say that, because unlike some previous sizable investments, in this case the companies are discussing minimum funding awards from Washington of $10 million each. And just to make sure that all shorts are burned, the WSJ added that “other technology companies are also expected to vie for the funding.”
The discussions are the latest example of the Trump Industrial Policy, the pinnacle of which manifests in the administration’s moves to become a shareholder in some companies. Trump and Howard Lutnick have said the government should share in a company’s upside since taxpayer money provides financial support and a stamp of approval. Even if the upside is based on a tiny $10 million sliver.
As correctly predicted on this site first…
.com/zerohedge/status/1953429200276222251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1953429200276222251%7Ctwgr%5E73ad72fd955f0a27cbde95ee443841673712efef%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fif-millions-shorts-suddenly-cried-out-terror-trump-admin-take-equity-stakes-quantum
… in August, the government agreed to take a nearly 10% stake in chip company Intel in exchange for converting almost $9 billion in previously awarded grants to equity. The arrangement would make the government Intel’s largest shareholder and followed a similar deal with one of the few US producers of rare-earth materials. The Energy Department received warrants giving it the right to buy shares of a lithium startup at a set price in exchange for a government loan.
The funding for quantum companies would be one of the first significant signs of support for what is viewed as a critical technology sector from Washington. Quantum computers are seen as a critical next-generation technology because they can not only quickly perform computations that would take today’s computers eons, but are key to hacking sophisticated 256 bit and higher encryption schemes. That sort of advance could make it easier to find new drugs, materials and chemicals while making every segment of the economy more efficient; of course by the time it is more efficient, there will be no workers as they will all be replacted with AI chatbots.
Ironically, shares of companies in the space have surged this year in what was a huge short squeeze, crushing the shorts, though they have plunged in recent days, wiping out the longs.
Now it’s the shorts’ turn again to be steamrolled courtesy of record short interest in the quantum sector.
The US government’s presence here is hardly surprising: companies from IBM to Microsoft are investing in quantum computing, as is China. Earlier today, Google said that it showed a quantum computer can run 13,000 times faster than classic supercomputers and potentially speed drug discovery and materials science.
Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar, a former quantum-computing executive and Energy Department official, is leading the funding discussions with companies in the industry, the people said. Bohr Quantum Technology, the company Dabbar co-founded and led as chief executive for four years, isn’t a candidate to receive funding, a Commerce Department official said.
Quantum Computing CEO Yuping Huang said the government’s potential equity stakes in companies in the industry are exciting. A Rigetti spokeswoman said the company is continuously engaging with the government on funding opportunities. Allison Schwartz, head of government relations for D-Wave, said the company wants to sell systems that can solve the government’s hard problems and get a return on investment. Atom Computing and IonQ declined to comment.
The funding the companies are seeking comes from the Chips Research and Development Office, which Lutnick has reorganized under his overhaul of how the agency manages 2022 Chips Act funding. He recently clawed back several billion dollars from a tech research initiative funded by the Biden administration.
end
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
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| The King Report October 23, 2025 Issue 7604 | Independent View of the News |
| Tesla got hammered (-2.8% at 12:32 ET) ahead of its results, which were due after the close. This dragged Fangs lower and impaired the general stock market. Nikkei: Apple reduces iPhone Air output, boosts iPhone 17 lineup Nikkei Asia reports that Apple told suppliers to cut iPhone Air orders to levels suppliers normally see near the end of a product’s life. Sources say November volumes fall to less than 10 percent of September’s run. The move follows weeks of steady iPhone Air availability online and in stores, with no slip in delivery windows since launch… https://www.macobserver.com/news/nikkei-apple-reduces-iphone-air-output-boosts-iphone-17-lineup/ Subprime lender PrimaLend Capital Partners files for bankruptcy protection https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/subprime-lender-primalend-capital-partners-files-bankruptcy-protection-2025-10-22/ @Barchart: % of subprime auto borrowers who are 60+ days late on their car payments hit an all-time high of 6.4% https://x.com/Barchart/status/1981007345628102928 Chanos Says ‘Lots of Red Flags’ at Carvana Amid Auto Loan Woes – BBG 13:48 ET Carvana shares dropped as much as 13% on Wednesday after Chanos’ comments… As Jamie Dimon warned, the credit cycle has changed. The lowest rungs almost always go first. The trigger might have been illegal immigrants that took on beaucoup debt and got deported or fled. @CollinRugg: Two illegal immigrants in Phoenix, Arizona, are $420,000 in debt and have no serious plans on paying it off, say they “deserve” a new Toyota Tacoma. Caleb Hammer, who runs financial audits for people, ended the interview after they refused to make any substantial changes. The man works in construction and makes about $6000 a month. He admitted that he pays little to no taxes. “You guys are f****d! … I’m done!” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1981043982844252458 To buy and procure votes, Dems and the GOPe germinated the next financial crisis! Bank of England warns First Brands and Tricolor collapses may signal deeper financial risks Governor Andrew Bailey flags the return of ‘slicing and dicing’ of complex loan structures as a trigger for concern among regulators https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-first-brands-tricolor-collapses-financial-risks-124701345.html Did the Government’s (Obama’s) Cash for Clunkers Event Cause the Used Car Price Spike? The final numbers indicate that 680,000 vehicles were traded-in. All of these vehicles were required to be destroyed at the dealership… In a study, Edmunds suggested that Cash for Clunkers might be the reason used cars are so high right now. With fewer vehicles on the road to buy, the used car supply is very low… https://www.motorbiscuit.com/governments-cash-for-clunkers-event-cause-used-car-price-spike/ ESZs vacillated between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening until a modest rally appeared at 2:57 ET. ESZs immediately settled into a 25-handle range until they broke down at 10:23 ET. ESZs sank to a daily low of 6698.00 at 12:33 ET. Trump happened! US considering curbs on exports to China made with US software, sources say – Reuters The Trump administration is considering a plan to curb a dizzying array of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, to retaliate against Beijing’s latest round of rare earth export restrictions, according to a U.S. official and three people briefed by U.S. authorities… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-considering-curbs-exports-china-made-with-us-software-sources-say-2025-10-22/ Someone then rescued ESZs (and stocks) by pushing ESZs above 6700 to prevent momentum selling and to squeeze shorts. ESZs hit 6740.50 at 12:54 ET. Because the midday rally was crafted via impact trading, ESZs tumbled to a new daily low of 6690.75 at 13:54 ET. Once again, someone jerked ESZs above 6700 to reverse sentiment. ESZs hit 6712.50 at 14:03 ET. ESZs once again fell below 6700 (6695.25 at 14:18 ET); and once again someone immediately jerked ESZs above 6700. One minute later, ESZs were 6701.50; they rallied to 6720.25 at 14:25 ET. Someone desperately wanted to keep ESZs above 6700. WHO? Nevertheless, sensing that someone very large was going to halt declines, seller went inert. ESZs plodded up to 6742.00 at 15:39 ET. After a modest retreat, ESZs went inert into the close. @PhilipWegmann: Treas Sec. Bessent tells reporters, “We are going to announce either after the close this afternoon or first thing tomorrow morning a substantial pickup in Russia sanctions.” 15:31 ET Positive aspects of previous session Someone kept manipulating ESZs to save stocks. Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered and generated large losses for Nasdaq and the Naz 100. USZs rallied modestly, when they should have rallied sharply on stocks’ big losses. Oil and gasoline soared due to (inside info?) US sanctions on Russian energy companies (see below) U.S. national debt has surged past $38 trillion — Fortune Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who kept manipulating ESZs to save stocks? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6698.95 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6741.75; 6655.69 @Rightanglenews: Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff and other senate Democrats won’t vote to reopen the government because donors are paying them to keep it shut, stating their choice is between keeping it closed for $3 million or reopening it and losing fundraising. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1980974055055360117 @EricLDaugh: SPEAKER JOHNSON reveals Chuck Schumer is BEGGING for a shady “backroom deal.” “Republicans will NOT solve this in a backroom deal. Chuck Schumer has suggested 4 leaders go into a smoke-filled backroom like in the old days and create a solution.” “We WON’T engage in Democrats’ hostage-taking, nor will we pay a RANSOM.” “It’s not a possible thing to do. It’s not appropriate, or possible to put on a continuing resolution.” “As room as Schumer reopens the government, our members will have an opportunity to engage in a discussion about how to make Obamacare affordable.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1981002088080412819 @EricLDaugh: PRESIDENT TRUMP: Chuck Schumer is SHOT. He’s SHOT. This poor guy, I feel sorry for him. I’ve known him a long time. I think he’s mentally GONE. He’s been beat up by young, radical lunatics! I think Schumer is gone. I really do. I think he’s not gonna run. He’s losing in every poll…Chuck is probably finished. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1980747091183038928 @RapidResponse47: @WhipKClark, the number two House Democrat, on the Democrat Shutdown: “Of course there will be families that are going to suffer… but it is one of the few leverage times we have.” When WH Press Sec Leavitt bashed the Dem House Whip for her callous statement, Clark said Leavitt was reading from the WH playbook and “taken out of context.” The WH is hyping Clark’s remark. @SpeakerJohnson: Here’s all the proof you need that Democrats caused this shutdown: If Republicans caused this shutdown, it would be the TOP STORY on every network and every front page in America every single day. Instead, the mainstream media is doing what they always do — GIVING COVER to the Democrats who caused it. The American people aren’t fooled by this. They know the truth. https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1981105552714244107 On Monday, to its horror, CNN reported that according to its recent polling, Trump’s approval has gone up a tad since the government shutdown. Another poll shows most Americans favor the shutdown. Tesla Q3 EPS: 0.5, 0.54 expected; Rev: $28.095B, $26.239B expected. EV tax credits that expired on September 30 boosted revenue. Gross margins ex-reg credit 15.4% vs 17.1% y/y. TSLA jumped 1% but quickly reversed into a 2% decline. After a modest rally, Tesla sank anew, falling as much as 4.94%. Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire – Today’s action targets Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO (Lukoil), which are now designated… 16:40 ET The following Russia-based Lukoil and Rosneft subsidiaries are being designated pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the energy sector of the Russian Federation economy… https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290 Five signs that Generative AI is losing traction Usage may be declining, just as scaling “laws” seem to be losing steam https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/five-signs-that-generative-ai-is Today – Stocks should decline early on Russian sanctions and Tesla. The action thereafter depends on the presence or absence of the ESZ manipulator that kept rescuing ESZs and stocks when ESZs fell below 6700. This is all that matters, barring news or developments. The S&P 500 Index closed at 6699.43. The game will be to get the index above 6700 and generate momentum buying, particularly from Army Ants and day traders. Also, the Pivot Point for the S&P 500 Index is 6698.95. Numerous day traders use this number to discern the day’s trend: above is bullish and vice versa. If the index closes well above or below the Pivot Point, some traders will buy dips if well above the pivot and sell rallies if decisively below the Pivot Point. With the Pivot Point being within a point of the close. Pivot Point traders have no bearing for today. The Pivot Point: (High + low + close) divided by 3. ESZs are -15.00; NQZs are -60.00; Dec AU is +46.60; and USZs are +3/32 at 20:05 ET. Expected impact earnings: DOW -0.30, TXT 1.43, F .36, NEM 1.42, NSC 3.20, INTC 0.02, BKR .61 Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 225k, Continuing Claims 1.93m; Sept Existing Home Sales 4.06m; Oct KC Fed Mfg. Activity 2 S&P Index 50-day MA: 6583; 100-day MA: 6390; 150-day MA: 6129; 200-day MA: 6079 DJIA 50-day MA: 45,878; 100-day MA: 44,806; 150-day MA: 43,564; 200-day MA: 43,532 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6699.40 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6445.33 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6834.79 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6728.14 triggers a buy signal “Sen. Jeff Merkley is delivering a marathon speech on the Senate floor to protest what he deems as President Trump’s threats to democracy…” – BBG Dems cannot argue policy because most of America detests its leftist base’s positions. So, Dems appease their leftist base and its virulent hate of Trump by constantly vilifying Trump and avoiding issues. MSNBC’s Jen Psaki jokes Usha Vance is afraid of her VP husband — ripped for ‘vile’ comments: ‘Not a good person’ (All Dems have is venom & hate; they’ve lost the issues.) https://t.co/dzBclT0lJg @JackPosobiec: “The phrase ‘No Kings’ was the central slogan of the French Revolution. That led to the violent Reign of Terror, Robespierre, and public beheadings.” @Rightanglenews: The Democrat who shouted racial obscenities at Winsome Earle-Sears during a JMU football game, telling her to “go back to Haiti,” has been fired from his high-paying job at Lockheed Martin. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1980607094353969176 Trump White House points to Obama basketball court renovation in defending viral demolition The Trump White House also noted that a kitchen garden was added to the South Lawn–a project spearheaded by former First Lady Michelle Obama… https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-white-house-points-obama-092500760.html @CollinsforTX: A CNN report from 2010: $376 million White House renovation during the Obama Administration. Where was the Democrat outrage then? https://x.com/CollinsforTX/status/1981051305637675119 We’re old enough to remember when Clinton pimped the Lincoln Bedroom for campaign donations! Hundreds of rabbis across US concerned Zohran Mamdani mayoralty will ‘encourage hostility’ toward Jewish community https://trib.al/NGZi6Gt Until elites suffer the negative consequences of leftist policies, big-blue cities will continue to elect leftists. Private schools, limos, private security, doormen, private jets, etc. inoculate the well-to-do from crime, healthcare horrors, and antisocial behavior. This is first-hand experience talking! Out late in Manhattan on business – car service home to New Jersey. Visiting family, limo around to see the sights. “Each one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last. All of them hope that the storm will pass before their turn comes to be devoured. But I fear greatly that the storm will not pass. It will rage and it will roar ever more loudly, ever more widely.” — Winston Churchill @kerrydougherty: Seems like only yesterday Barack Obama was scolding “the brothers” for not supporting a black woman for president. Now he’s headed to Norfolk to urge “the brothers” to vote for a rich white lady over Winsome Sears, a black woman from Jamaica and a former Marine. If only Sears had a D after her name… @InezFeltscher: Women voted more Republican than men throughout the 50s. The first time in modern political history that American women leaned less Republican than men was 1966, and a consistent gap for the Democrats didn’t open up until the 80s. What changed? Marriage rates and the number of single, childless women in the electorate. https://x.com/InezFeltscher/status/1981105681886277908 @PhilipWegmann: Standards lapsed at Secret Service during the Biden administration so much so that an agent–assigned to protect VP Harris’ family–not only never passed a physical fitness test but was allowed to moonlight as a plus-sized model, @SusanCrabtree exclusively reports. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/10/22/is_secret_service_chief_committed_to_reforming_dei_woke_culture__153434.html Luigi Mangione got beaten up by 7 ‘ladyboys’ in Thailand months before UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting: report https://trib.al/YRiXEKX @visegrad24: A Swedish court has ruled that the Eritrean migrant who raped 16-year-old Meya Åberg won’t be deported because the rape didn’t last long enough… https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1980924784666956111 @JackPosobiec: The tradition of ‘guising’ on All Hallow’s Eve dates back to Christian children going door to door praying for the souls of the faithful departed in the Middle Ages. Cakes and treats were given as gifts to the children. November 2 is “All Souls Day.” November 1 is “All Saints (Hallows) Day.” Hallows Eve eventually became “Halloween.” How important is culture? 2nd grade grandson must get glasses. He’s elated because Peter Parker (Spiderman) wears glasses. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Highway Horror: Illegal Alien Truck Driver Kills Three In DUI Crash On California Highway
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 09:45 PM
Submitted by American Truckers United,
Three months ago, American Truckers United sounded the alarm: America’s highways are a war zone, thanks to an epidemic of illegal alien truck drivers barreling into stalled traffic at full throttle.
Now, in a chilling echo, another semi-truck has plowed into a standstill at highway speeds, leaving a trail of twisted metal and shattered lives. This is the deadly harvest of “Strong Solo Sergey,” the sleazy tactic mega-carriers and brokerage giants cheer as their preferred business model.
Via Fox News reporter Bill Melugin:
Per multiple ICE sources, Jashanpreet Singh, the semi-truck driver suspected of killing three people in a DUI crash on the 10 freeway in Ontario, CA yesterday, is an Indian illegal alien who was caught & released at the CA border by the Biden admin in March 2022. DHS photo of him attached via federal sources. I’m told ICE is placing a detainer request on Singh with the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, where he is in custody on suspicion of DUI causing great bodily injury and gross vehicular manslaughter while intoxicated. He has not been formally charged yet. Police say Singh was speeding and under the influence, never hitting his breaks, when he crashed into slow moving traffic on the freeway, causing a devastating and deadly chain reaction crash that killed 3 people. The victims have not been identified yet.
For the uninitiated, “Strong Solo Sergey” is corporate code for exploiting dirt-cheap foreign drivers – your “Sergeys” from abroad – while flouting hours-of-service rules like they’re suggestions. These rookies, often non-citizens with fresh non-domicile CDLs, log 20-hour marathons behind the wheel, eyes glazing over from exhaustion. It’s a calculated gut-punch to honest American trucking outfits, undercutting us with rock-bottom rates and zero regard for safety. And the wreckage? It’s piling up. Just ask the family of Tiana Moore, a devoted single mom whose world ended in a fireball when one of these sleep-deprived phantoms misjudged a maneuver after 20+ hours on the clock. Tiana’s crash was no anomaly – it’s the grim routine for these invaders, turning our interstates into roulette wheels.
These aren’t the “Knights of the Road” we idolized in our youth – grizzled pros who knew every mile like their own heartbeat. No, the ATA’s fat-cat enablers are hell-bent on phasing them out, flooding the lanes with bargain-bin hazards to pad their profits. Unacceptable? It’s a national disgrace.
Worse, our so-called leaders are fiddling while Rome burns. Take HB 5688, peddled by North Carolina’s David Rouzer as a “fix.” It’s theater – a flimsy facade that slams the front door while propping the back wide open. The next administration could easily just install another Alejandro Mayorkas clone as Transportation Secretary and unleash the floodgates anew, dooming more families to Tiana’s fate.
Enough. American Truckers United calls for a total ban on issuing non-domicile CDLs to non-citizens. No loopholes, no half-measures. Secure our roads, protect our knights, and put America first – before the next Sergey turns your commute into a coffin.
end
ICE Tracker Planned By Democrats Could Endanger Agents, Bondi Says
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
Attorney General Pam Bondi said on Oct. 22 that a plan by Democrats to launch an online platform tracking Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Los Angeles could endanger federal agents and expose them to harassment or violence.
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif) said during an Oct. 21 press conference alongside Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass that Democrats on the House Oversight Committee will launch what Garcia called a “master ICE tracker.” The online database would allow the public to submit and review reports of ICE activity across the Los Angeles area, including videos and other data.
“Over the course of the next couple of weeks, the Oversight Committee will be launching on their website a master ICE tracker where we’re going to be essentially tracking every single instance that we can verify that the community will send,” Garcia said.
“You’ll be able to send us information on. It’ll be all available in one central place, and you’ll be able to look up that information as it relates to Los Angeles as well.”
Garcia described the initiative as part of a wide congressional investigation into alleged wrongful detentions by ICE under the Trump administration. Garcia also said he plans to hold a congressional field hearing in Los Angeles, where residents can testify about immigration enforcement concerns, calling it part of a broader inquiry into alleged civil rights violations by federal agents.
He has joined forces with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who is leading a parallel investigation through the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The two lawmakers recently sent a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem demanding records on what they described as the unlawful detention of U.S. citizens and immigrants by ICE agents.
The ICE tracker project drew swift condemnation from Bondi, who said such tools could compromise law enforcement operations and fuel organized hostility toward immigration officers.
“Shutdown Democrats are already refusing to pay our law enforcement agents. Now, @RepRobertGarcia and @SenBlumenthal are trying to put ICE agents at risk just for doing their jobs,” Bondi said in an Oct. 22 post on X.
“@TheJusticeDept has ZERO tolerance for violence against law enforcement—we will prosecute any person who physically assaults our agents.”
Border czar Tom Homan said recent heated rhetoric, along with efforts to expose the movements and identities of ICE agents, have already correlated with a surge in organized attacks on law enforcement personnel and facilities.
Protestors demonstrate against ICE operations while blocking the Sixth Street Bridge between Boyle Heights and the downtown area of Los Angeles, on July 1, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images
“Death threats, attacks up over 1,000 percent,” Homan said in a recent interview on The Alex Marlow Show, attributing the escalation to “hateful rhetoric” by some media figures and politicians who compare ICE to Nazis or the Gestapo.
He said the Department of Justice (DOJ) was already investigating the financing of organized groups that attack ICE agents and facilities in a coordinated way
“They will find out who is funding this, and they will be held accountable,” Homan said, adding that the riots are “absolutely organized.”
The DOJ under the Trump administration previously pressured Apple and Meta to remove apps and social media pages that tracked ICE operations. Apple deleted an app called ICEBlock earlier this month following a DOJ request, citing potential risks to agents’ safety.
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) at the Capitol in Washington on April 1, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times
Garcia has defended his proposal, saying that the tracker would expose civil rights violations by immigration officers.
Citing a recent ProPublica report, he said at least 170 U.S. citizens had been wrongly detained by ICE agents.
“Why? Because they look like me, because they are of Latino origin, or because they are suspected to not be a U.S. citizen, or because they are suspected of crimes that they have not committed,” Garcia said on Oct. 21.
After Bondi’s social media warning, Garcia responded in an online post: “Hey @AGPamBondi, ICE detaining over 170 U.S. citizens is not them ‘just doing their jobs.’”
Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin rejected the criticism. She told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the department “enforces federal immigration law without fear, favor, or prejudice.”
She said claims that ICE targets U.S. citizens or engages in racial profiling are “disgusting, reckless, and categorically false.”
McLaughlin added that assaults on ICE officers have risen by more than 1,000 percent amid “smears” from “sanctuary politicians,” and warned that anyone who obstructs or assaults law enforcement will face consequences.
She said that since June 6, ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection have arrested more than 7,100 illegal immigrants in the Los Angeles area.
end
Democrats Exhibit Amnesia About Biden-Era Lawfare
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 11:00 AM
Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearPolitics,
Democrats who denounce federal indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James as unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department exhibit amnesia about the norm-eviscerating, undemocratic lawfare they launched during the Biden administration.
A federal grand jury in Virginia indicted Comey last month for lying to Congress and obstructing a congressional proceeding by “willfully and knowingly” lying to the Senate Judiciary Committee when he testified that he had not “authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports” concerning the FBI’s 2016 investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of private email for confidential information.
A 2018 inspector general report suggests that the main factual dispute may be whether Comey authorized, or was merely informed of, the leaks.
Documents published by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA director John Ratcliffe, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley show that while serving as Barak Obama’s FBI director and then Trump’s first FBI director, Comey used the Steele dossier, which he knew to be unsubstantiated Clinton campaign disinformation, to obtain warrants to spy on the Trump campaign, doctor an intelligence assessment to falsely claim the purpose of Russian interference in the 2016 election was to benefit Trump, and entrap Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.
Grassley also issued reports establishing that Comey gave Clinton special treatment during the investigation of her emails and intended to exonerate her even before her FBI interview.
This month, Letitia James was indicted for filing a fraudulent mortgage application that described an investment property she was purchasing in Norfolk, Virginia, as her second home. By doing so, she allegedly reduced her interest and fees by $18,933 over the life of the loan.
James ran for Attorney General in New York on the promise that she would “get Trump.” When she was unable to find grounds to pursue criminal charges, she made unprecedented use of a consumer fraud law to pursue Trump for allegedly defrauding Deutsche Bank by overstating the value of Mar-a-Lago. Judge Arthur Engoron implausibly found that Mar-a-Lago’s $18 million tax assessment was its true value. Though Deutsche Bank officials testified they were not defrauded, lost no money, and would happily again work with Trump, Engoron banned the Trump family from doing business in New York, and imposed a penalty that, with interest, topped $500 million.
James vigorously sought to execute the judgement and foreclose on Trump’s properties. An appellate court stepped in, reducing Trump’s appeal bond to $175 million, and later throwing out the financial penalty.
Both indictments were secured by former Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, appointed to serve as interim U.S. attorney in Virginia when experienced prosecutor Erik Seibert declined to pursue the cases, and came just days after Trump posted a caustic text on Truth Social directing Attorney General Pam Bondi to prosecute Comey and James.
Democrats have been more muted about last week’s indictment in Maryland of former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton for mishandling classified information.
I previously wrote about Democrats’ hypocrisy in objecting to investigations of their colleagues who engaged in lawfare against Trump and his supporters, though I cautioned the administration against prosecutions based on laws that are not traditionally enforced.
The facts suggest the three cases are indeed retribution. That does not void the indictments. Every lawyer is taught that the purpose of criminal justice is rehabilitation, retribution, and deterrence. Rather, the issue is whether these are selective prosecutions of laws that are not enforced against others. That is difficult to establish, particularly for these laws and by officials who hold a public trust.
The Biden administration prosecuted former White House aides Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro for refusing to testify before Congress, former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen for lying to Congress, and numerous Trump aides and supporters for lying to the FBI. Pre-Biden prosecutions for lying to Congress include Reagan National Security Advisor John Poindexter, Nixon chief of staff H.R. Haldeman, and baseball player Roger Clemens, among others.
James correctly observed that “Everyday Americans cannot lie to a bank to get a mortgage, and if they did, our government would throw the book at them.” Her alleged crime is regularly prosecuted, albeit usually when it involves larger amounts. Conversely, there are reports that James may have a history of mortgage abuse.
Mishandling of classified information is routinely prosecuted.
By pre-Biden standards, these types of prosecutions were often not seen as a good use of Justice Department resources. But the Biden administration’s use and support of novel legal theories to aggressively pursue Trump, his lawyers, and supporters have significantly lowered the bar for prosecuting those who hold public office.
I make no prediction about the outcome of these cases. For example, Comey’s defenders claim Halligan’s appointment may be invalid. If so, the time has expired to re-indict Comey. Nonetheless, insincere Democrats should learn the lesson of Matthew 26:52: “… for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.” Amen.
Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including RealClearPolitics, The American Mind, National Review, television, radio, and podcasts.
end
Ron Paul: It Didn’t Start With Trump
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025 – 02:45 PM
Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,
“What do you expect when you sue the president?”
Hearing that comment, some people may guess the comment was made by someone addressing one of President Trump’s political opponents who has been targeted for federal prosecution.
That quote, though, is much older.
It is from an IRS agent addressing officials of a conservative organization that was being audited during Bill Clinton’s presidency.
This illustrates that the use of federal agencies to punish presidents’ enemies did not start with President Trump.
The administration of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt used tax investigations against political opponents.
Targeted individuals included publishers of newspapers that were highly critical of Roosevelt’s domestic and foreign policies.
President John F. Kennedy used the IRS and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to drive his conservative critics off the radio.
President Lyndon Johnson also used the IRS and the FCC to silence conservative critics.
One tool that was used to silence conservatives was to accuse broadcasters of violating the “fairness doctrine” by favoring conservative commentators.
President Richard Nixon used the IRS to target political enemies.
The Nixon administration also threatened television and radio companies with revocation of their broadcast licenses unless they provided favorable coverage of the administration.
During the Clinton administration, the IRS not only targeted conservative and libertarian organizations it audited Paula Jones after she sued President Clinton for sexual harassment.
During the George W. Bush years, the IRS targeted organizations critical of the Iraq War. When Barack Obama assumed the presidency, the tax agency turned its attention back to conservative and libertarian groups, with a focus on organizations associated with the Tea Party.
The Department of Homeland Security also issued a warning that those with pro-liberty bumper stickers — including supporting the Libertarian Party or my presidential campaign — might be violent extremists.
During the Biden administration, many Americans received harsh sentences for being present at the Capitol on January 6 even if they did not commit any violent acts.
Federal agencies can also target presidents’ political enemies without a presidential order to do so being issued. Some ambitious and unscrupulous individuals will target a president’s enemies believing that this is an effective way to curry favor with the president or high-level administration officials.
Others will use the power of the government against the president’s political enemies or those involved with political movements seeking to change the direction of the government out of a belief that these people or groups constitute a threat to the federal government that justifies violating constitutional rights.
This history suggests that abuse of power is an inevitable feature of the modern welfare-warfare-regulatory state. Therefore, instead of focusing just on electing the “right” president, we should focus on shrinking the size and scope of the federal government to its constitutional limitations.
This will ensure that Americans can exercise their right to criticize the government without fear of reprisal.
As Thomas Jefferson said, “in questions of power then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the constitution.”
end
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
