access market
GOLD $3931.30 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 47.53 (3:30 PM)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,966.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/28/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 10/30/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 37
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 148
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 73
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 10
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2
905 C ADM 1 41
991 H CME 29
TOTAL: 180 180
MONTH TO DATE: 58,819
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 180 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 18,000 OZ or 0.5598 TONNES
total notices so far: 58,819 contracts for 5,881,900 OR 182.952 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 33 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.165 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7902 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 39.510 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 39.510 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
41.620 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 80.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 39.510 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.620 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S STRONG .4696 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 75.696 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 232.895 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3135 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,446 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 245 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 245 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2876 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 245 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2890 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.36 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 14.450 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.36
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.11 POINTS OR 0.70%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 87.56 PTS OR 0.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 1008.47 PTS OR 2.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.83%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0998// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0997/ Oil DOWN TO 59.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 64.19 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0998 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0997 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 6584 CONTRACTS TO 457,122 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $36.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST NO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4300). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. HOWEVER IT WAS THE MAJOR SPECULATORS THAT WENT SHORT AND THE BANKERS WHO TOOD THE LONG SIDE AS THE SHORTS WERE LED BY THE NOSE BY THEM. THEN MUCH TO THEIR HORROR, THEY TENDERED THE CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
WE HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2244 CONTRACTS (OR 7.104 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 14.553 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 6 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 130.3 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,114 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1531 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY’S AND TUESDAY’S HUGE RAIDS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON OUR UPCOMING DAYS.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE SET TO BEGIN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS HAVE DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN. IT WILL BE QUITE A TRADING WEEK //OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY FRIDAY OCT 31..COMEX EXPIRY TUESDAY OCT 28. THE FED IS MOST LIKELY TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD AND SILVER PRIOR TO THEIR MEETING OCT 29 WHERE HE WILL LOWER INTEREST RATES (MAYBE 1/2 PT) AND THAT WILL SET A FIRESTORM OF PRICE INFLATION.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT:
F) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
G) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
K) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
L) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
M) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
N) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
0) A HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
P) A RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING TUESDAY’S 9.564 TONNES
Q/ QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONES OF GOLD//
R/ TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.8600 TONNE JUMP
S) OCT 22 QUEUE JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES//
T) 1OCT 23 1.695 TONNES
U) OCT 24. 0.8615 TONNES
V) OCT 27 0.3048 TONNE QUEUE JUMP
W) OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069
X) OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.511 TONNES OF GOLD!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 245 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH SEPT. AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING.
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 4300 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4300 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 4300 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4300 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON!
WE HAD :
- SOME LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCT. 10 AND GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK DESPITE OUR TWO RAIDS THIS PAST WEEK, ON FRIDAY AND OCT 21 AND ATTEMPTED RAID OCT 24
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1531 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9 AND THEN OCT 21 AND NOW OCT 24, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.4696 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $36.10./ /) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 2244 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. HOWEVER WE DID HAVE HUGE SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION AS THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE SHORT AS THE BANKERS WENT LONG AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A) GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). AND B) NOW THE COMMENCEMENT OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS EVEN THOUGH THEY TRANSFERRED THESE LOSSES ONTO THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET.THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON, NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER. THE CROOKS NOW NEED TO RAID ON EVERY OTHER DAY. AS OCT 21 WAS ANOTHER MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND EQUITY SHARES. THEY ARE TRYING TO CONTAIN PRICING ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS , OCT 24 AND THEN OCT 28, THE LAST DAY FOR COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF A TOTAL OF 7.104 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4096 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $36.10
WE HAD A HUGE 12,398 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2244 CONTRACTS OR 224,400 0Z (7.104 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 29
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 ENTRIES ii) Out of Brinks: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) ii) Out of HSBC 46,528.197 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan: 45,641.180 oz total withdrawal 156,468.377 oz or 4.866 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 entries i) Into HSBC 161,821.179 oz total customer deposit 161,821.179 oz 5.0333 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 180 notice(s) 18,000 OZ 0.5598 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2 contracts 200 OZ 0.00622 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 58,819notices 5,881,900oz 182.952 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entries
i) Into HSBC 161,821.179 oz
total customer deposit 161,821.179 oz
5.0333 tonnes
customer withdrawals:
3 ENTRIES
ii) Out of Brinks: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars)
ii) Out of HSBC 46,528.197 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 45,641.180 oz
total withdrawal 156,468.377 oz
or 4.866 tonnes
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ADJUSTMENTs 1 dealer to customer
i) out of Brinks 19,434.516 oz
volume at the comex: TUESDAY: 365,142oz ( VERY STRONG//
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 152 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 52 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 203 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 151 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 15,100 OZ OR 0.4696 TONNES OF GOLD, WHICH FOLLOWS BY ALL THE REST OF OCTOBER QUEUE JUMP OF 75.8979 TONNES
THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 182.958 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES
NOVEMBER LOST 141 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4365 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 8582 CONTRACTS UP TO 342,294 CONTRACTS.
We had 180 contracts filed for today representing 18,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 180 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 79 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (58,819 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 182 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (180x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,882,100 OZ OR 182.958 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (58,819 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (182 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (180 x 100 oz) which equals 5,867,000 OZ OR 182.958 TONNES + 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 197.511 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
volume TUESDAY confirmed 327,800 contracts huge
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,689,307.185 oz 52.54 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,460,142.422oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,786,880.454 or 615.455 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,673,251.968 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 18,097,543 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 562.909tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 29 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 7 entries i) Out of Asahi: 606,750.710 oz ii) Out of Brinks 1898,680.548 oz iii) Out of Loomis 311,730.082 oz iv) Out of Delaware 4000.660 oz v) Out of JPMorgan: 4942.500 oz vi) Out of Manfra; 125,185.327 oz vii) Out of Stonex; 24,091.390 oz total withdrawal 2,476,381.617 oz 3rd day in a row for huge silver withdrawals |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 33 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.165 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 contracts (NIL oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7902 Contracts (39.510 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
zero
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withdrawals: customer side/eligible
7 entries
i) Out of Asahi: 606,750.710 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 1898,680.548 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 311,730.082 oz
iv) Out of Delaware 4000.660 oz
v) Out of JPMorgan: 4942.500 oz
vi) Out of Manfra; 125,185.327 oz
vii) Out of Stonex; 24,091.390 oz
total withdrawal 2,476,381.617 oz
3rd day in a row for huge silver withdrawals
adjustments: 3
3 dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 1516,500.400 oz
b) Loomis 514,351.230 oz
c) Manfra; 492,916.668 oz
total adjusted out of dealer 2.524 million oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 163.786 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 485.597 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 33 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 93 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 121 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 28 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.140 MILLION 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 39.510 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S STRONG 0.410 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 41.62 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER LOST 50 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2656
DECEMBER LOST 3695 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 107,513
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 33 or 0.165 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 89,021good//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7902 X5,000 oz = 39.510 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (33) AND the number of notices served upon today (33 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (7902) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(33) minus number of notices served upon today (33)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 39.510 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 41.620 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 41.620 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 163.786 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 205.759/485.587million. 42.47%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1038.92 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.999 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
The death of fiat and its consequences
There is growing evidence that the fiat currency era is ending. It will be financially violent. No one in their right minds will want to hold currency and credit through the turbulence.
| Alasdair MacleodOct 29∙Paid |
As fiat dies, prices will rise many times as their purchasing power collapses. Interest rates and bond yields will soar driven by credit risk and inflation, destroying businesses and the very fabric of society. We have seen it many times before. But this currency collapse will be a global phenomenon. It will also end the entire dollar-based financial system, wiping out shadow banks and almost the entire derivatives industry throughout the G7. Banks will have to be both skilled and lucky to survive the chaos.
This article explains why and how fiat currencies die. The consequences will be radically different from those expected by market participants today.
Introduction
No system of fiat currency has ever survived for long and history is littered with examples which prove the point. The best documented was the collapse of Germany’s reichsmark following the First World War. But at the same time Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Russia suffered currency collapses as well.
France saw a currency collapse in 1720-1722, when John Law implemented a Keynesian scheme to rescue government finances by issuing paper livres to puff up shares in his bank-cum-import/export ventures. This was followed in 1789 by assignats which by 1796 had collapsed completely, replaced by mandats territoriaux which collapsed after only six months.
A currency collapse is often referred to as hyperinflation. A hyperinflation suggests a deliberate monetary debasement debauching the currency. Clearly, this cannot happen if there is gold convertibility, which puts strict limits on the currency issuer.
A deliberate policy of debasement is not the only way in which a currency can lose value, because ultimately its value depends on the faith a currency’s users have in it. This is obviously the case when a government is defeated in war. Japan’s military yen lost its value in 1945, as did Germany’s mark — in the latter case it was the second currency collapse inflicted on the German people in only 25 years.
Therefore, there are two ways in which a currency loses its value and to describe the process as hyperinflation is a mistake, even when a war is not involved. And Professors Reinhart and Rogoff who did seminal work on fiat currency collapses have pointed out that high levels of government debt in its domestic currency in peacetime are invariably the trigger for a currency collapse.
It makes sense. The point of a fiat currency is to allow its issuing government to fund its spending without resorting to punitive taxes. Therefore, a government’s debts accumulate until such time as they can no longer be sustained. The tipping point arrives when debt grows faster than the means to pay for it — the classic debt trap. The measure commonly used to determine the condition is growth in nominal GDP relative to debt, because GDP is the source of a government’s revenue and its ability to fund debt.
We should be able to anticipate the trend towards a debt trap before unadjusted GDP figures tell us it has arrived. When a government runs a deficit, which together with bond yields is the source of accumulating debt, it should be subtracted from the nominal GDP number. Being left with private sector generated GDP with that element of government GDP fully funded by taxes, it will give a truer tax base’s ability to sustain the level of a government’s debt.
The chart below incorporates these adjustments for the US, rebased to fiscal 1972 at 100. We find that debt has been growing faster that adjusted nominal GDP since 1982. That is, for the last 43 years, markets have given the US government the benefit of doubt.
Clearly, the US Government has been in a debt trap for some time, a situation to which markets have yet to wake up. It’s hardly surprising that debt interest payment cost is running away, and becoming a major budget cost making it doubly difficult to bring debt under control:
Details vary, but the other G7 currencies face similar debt traps. With politicians unaware or unwilling to address the debt trap danger, there is little doubt that an inflection point is being reached where government debt is close to spiralling even higher relative to an ability to service it.
False optimism suggests that high levels of debt do not necessarily led to debt traps, with the reduction of debt-to-GDP numbers after the Second World War commonly cited. But the conditions today are very different. In the period 1945 —1970, due to the Bretton Woods gold standard system and despite massive expansions of credit, inflation remained subdued along with interest rates. Furthermore, credit expansion was aimed at production, unlike today where it predominantly inflates consumer spending and asset inflation. And with G7 debt-to-GDP ratios now typically 100% or more, the only solution to G7 debt traps is to cut public spending drastically.
That seems very unlikely to happen.
The consequences for currencies
The major G7 currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP) face debt traps which are getting impossible to escape. Their condition is consistent with the end of a fiat currency era, always brought about by debt unsustainability. Yet, investors are blissfully unaware that this is the case. They expect inflation to broadly remain under control while economies stagnate, and they believe that central banks can reduce interest rates into 2026.
We must now turn our attention to the financial and non-financial private sectors. The expansion of credit in recent years has facilitated consumer spending and asset inflation. The former ensures that the purchasing power of currencies has continued to decline reflected in rising consumer prices, while the latter has brought about similar conditions to the Roaring Twenties between 1926-1929. In short, market valuations reflect a credit bubble of immense proportions, fuelled by speculative excess as the record level of margin debt illustrates:
At end-September, margin debt was $1.126 trillion, likely supporting long positions worth three times that. Furthermore, the 1929—1932 debt bubble implosion was accompanied by the economic destruction of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, and President Trump is similarly imposing disruptive trade tariffs.
Between 1929-1932, the US was on a gold standard. Consequently, the contraction of total credit came about not just by falling stock values (the valuation effect) but by the bankruptcy of some 10,000 banks. Those bankruptcies simply wiped-out excess credit by defaults. In today’s welfare states, we can be sure that that will not be permitted, which means that the value of credit will be reduced almost entirely without bankruptcies in the banking system and of the larger debt-burdened zombies.
The only give in an imploding system without bankruptcies is through debasement of credit’s value. It will lead to higher bond yields to reflect the combination of loss of possession of credit, borrower risk, and currency risk. But higher bond yields intensify the debt trap. Attempts by central banks to reduce interest rates in an attempt to stem the flood of insolvencies and preserve jobs will merely undermine currency values further.
This will be reflected in higher prices across the entire economic spectrum. And this leads to the most egregious error of the lot, when central banks, governments, macro-economists, and politicians believe that inflation is just rising prices. NO! It is falling purchasing power of the currency. But when prices appear to be spiralling out of control, the common response becomes price controls. Many politicians realise that price controls are counterproductive nonsense, but they introduce them anyway.
The end of the fiat currency system can come about in one of two ways: either credible moves are made to stabilise currency values, usually through tying credit’s value to gold and slashing public spending, or it continues to lose purchasing power at an accelerating pace. The idea of some sort of reset not involving gold will simply go the way of France’s mandats territoriaux.
It is a racing certainty that a collapse of all fiat currencies will take place while governments refuse to re-embrace gold standards and take the necessary structural actions to make them credible. A collapse is likely to be total or near total before they see the light. It is the one outcome no one expects today but carries a high level of certainty. And as a reminder, when it happened to Germany over 100 years ago, it took a trillion reichsmarks to buy one gold mark. It is exceedingly difficult to see an alternative outcome for the dollar and all associated fiat currencies over the next few years.
.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /245 AND 246
5. COMMODITY REPORT/
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.11 POINTS OR 0.70%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 87.56 PTS OR 0.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 1008.47 PTS OR 2.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.83%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0998// OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0997/ Oil DOWN TO 59.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 64.19 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0998 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0997 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1007
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1092
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 87.56 PTS OR 0.33%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 293.14 PTS OR 0.58%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.77 EURO FALLS TO 1.1623 DOWN 34 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.651//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.41…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.042 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6217// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.394 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.143
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.2740
3j Gold at $4022.80Silver at: 48.36 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 19 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.43
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.41/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.651% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.041 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7992 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9261 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.998 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.553 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.505 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.95 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.401 DOWN 0 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.173 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.043 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.627 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Push To New Record, Nvidia Above $5 Trillion Ahead Of Fed Rate Cut And Mag 7 Earnings
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 08:29 AM
With the year-end performance chase officially open…
remove the almost https://t.co/wECpqhB3sL pic.twitter.com/3A7iAxOIjV— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 29, 2025
… US futures march higher into today’s Fed and Mag7 earnings (GOOG, META, MSFT adding up to more than $9TN in market cap) on relentlessly positive AI news, optimism about trade and expectations of a cut from the Fed later. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gain another 0.5%, with both indexes in record territory. Nvidia rose 3% premarket after Trump said he’ll discuss its Blackwell processors with China’s Xi Jinping (during their 3 hour meeting confirmed for tomorrow morning), setting the AI giant on course to become the first public company worth $5 trillion when it opens for trading. There are also reports that the US-China deal will include a reduction in the fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, boosting overall sentiment. All Mag7 names are higher with Semis also bid. Bloomberg reported that China is set to purchase its first cargoes of US soybeans this season, while Trump also said that US and SKorea have reached a trade deal. Cyclicals are mixed despite a rebound in Metals / Miners abut Defensives are being dragged lower by Staples. Commodities are mixed but Precious / Base Metals are rallying after gold / silver look to form a level after correcting 10% and 15% (gold trading back over $4000) while copper hit a record above $11K amid a series of supply setbacks at leading mines. Bond yields are up 1bps across the curve and the USD is bid for the first time this week. Today’s big event is the Fed decision as well as earnings by 3 of the Mag 7; we also get September pending home sales at 10am.
In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Nvidia is up 4% after US President Donald Trump said he’ll discuss the chipmaker’s Blackwell artificial intelligence processors with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, putting the company on track to become the first $5 trillion business by market value (Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.9%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) + 0.1%.
- Avantor (AVTR) tumbles 17% after the maker of laboratory supplies reported net sales for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. The firm also recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $785 million related to its Distribution reporting unit.
- Bloom Energy (BE) gains 18% after the company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) rises 4% after posting higher third-quarter revenue, with its energy and transportation business boosting earnings amid rising demand for equipment needed to fuel data centers for artificial intelligence.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH) declines 11% after the firm’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Several price target cuts from analysts including JPMorgan and Evercore.
- Etsy (ETSY) falls 9% after the online marketplace company reported its third-quarter results. It also named Kruti Patel Goyal, currently chief growth officer, to the CEO job, effective Jan. 1.
- Fiserv (FI) tumbles 27% after it slashed its outlook for full-year earnings and said it’s overhauling its top leadership committee.
- Generac (GNRC) plunges 9% after the power-equipment company cut its adjusted Ebitda margin and net sales growth forecast for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and net sales for the third quarter that fell short of expectations. .
- Mondelez (MDLZ) is down 5% after the snack-food company cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
- Seagate Technology (STX) is up 5% after the computer hardware and storage company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook.
- Stride Inc. (LRN) tanks 42% after the online education company gave an outlook that was much weaker than expected, prompting a downgrade. The company cited technical issues during the rollout of a new learning management system that fueled student withdrawals.
- Teradyne (TER) rises 20% after the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter above the average analyst estimate.
- Varonis Systems (VRNS) plunges 29% after the data-security software company’s updated full-year revenue forecast came in below the average analyst estimate. It also reported third-quarter revenue that missed expectations.
Traders are gearing up for two pivotal days featuring a Fed decision, US-China trade talks, and earnings from five of the Magnificent 7, while Nvidia is set to be the world’s first $5 trillion public company. NVDA haares rallied after Trump said he expects to discuss Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell AI chip in Xi talks on Thursday. Trump also said he expects to lower tariffs the US imposed on Chinese goods over the fentanyl crisis as leaders of the world’s biggest economies seek to ease tensions in a meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, China was reported to purchase first cargoes of US soybeans this season.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan this morning reminds us that “today will be the fifth time that the Fed cuts rates with the S&P 500 at all-time highs. All prior instances the S&P 500 was higher a year later with an average return of 20%. The worst one-year return was a 15% gain which occurred last year.”
In other trade news, Trump said he had reached a deal with South Korea, though he later tempered the comment by saying the agreement was close to being finalized. Futures on South Korea’s Kospi 200 stock index rose.
There are some clouds in the sky: the breadth of the S&P 500’s gain on Tuesday was the narrowest since at least 1993, replicated overnight by Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225, adding to the theme of concentration with a strong gain generated by a relatively low number of advancers. BofA technical analyst Paul Ciana notes “the ghosts and goblins of Sept-Oct are fading away as we head into the most wonderful time of year,” while cautioning healthy bull markets are built on breadth and rotation “both of which have waned.”
“From an investment standpoint, while the narrative for US equities remains ‘bullish with conviction,’ sustaining this uptrend will require patience and disciplined risk management,” wrote Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. “Monetary policy decisions, trade developments, and corporate earnings are set to become the key catalysts driving the next phase of the market.”
Turning to the main event, the Fed is set to cut by 25 basis points, and is likely to announce an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) as there are increasing signs that bank reserves in the last two weeks have transitioned from an “abundant” to an “ample” level – the stopping point for QT, according to guidance from Powell (our full preview is here).
“The decisive factor will be Powell’s press conference and how he assesses the current situation with regard to the labor market, because we are not getting any real data at the moment due to the government shutdown,” said Unicredit strategist Christian Stocker. “The economy will continue to develop solidly if we get some interest rate cuts next year. That would certainly be very, very decisive for the stock market.”
Besides the Fed, attention will be on the first batch of Mag 7 companies reporting after the close including GOOG, META, MSFT (full preview to follow). We also get earnings from ServiceNow, Starbucks, Chipotle, KLA, and eBay after the close. So far earnings season is very strong: of the 197 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 85% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed. Boeing, Caterpillar, CVS, Fiserv, Phillips 66 and Verizon are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Analysts have noted that, while tariffs and subdued demand have weighed on 2025 profitability, strong backlogs should provide Caterpillar a cushion, and tailwinds in power generation should support growth in the coming years.
The Magnificent Seven are projected to post third-quarter profit growth of 14%, nearly double the 8% expected for the broader S&P 500.
“The story of AI is still intact,” said Anthi Tsouvali, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The fact that the Fed is cutting rates — and we do expect that the Fed will cut another 25 points — is very good for the economy. It’s easing financial conditions, boosting growth.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 also at a record after copper hit an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange. The metal — a bellwether for global growth — has surged as the US and China move closer to a trade deal. Automakers also gained after Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s upbeat earnings signaled confidence in its cash generation despite trade hurdles. Among other movers in Europe, Glencore Plc rose after saying it’s on track to hit full-year production targets. Banco Santander SA and Deutsche Bank AG gained after earnings beats. Adyen NV surged after the payments solutions company exceeded analysts’ revenue estimates. UBS Group AG fell on legals risks arising from a Swiss court ruling. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Deutsche Bank shares rose 4.6%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the German lender beat estimates as revenue from fixed-income trading exceeded analysts expectations
- Temenos shares jump as much as 16%, the most in three months, after the software company reported beats across metrics in its third quarter and raised its Ebit forecast for the full year
- Neste shares gain as much as 9.7%, the most since July, after the Finnish energy group reported its latest earnings. Analysts highlight a strong Ebitda beat, and while the renewables segment performed well
- Sweco soars as much as 13%, the most since May 2024, after the Swedish engineering consultancy delivered third-quarter Ebita ahead of expectations
- Straumann shares rise as much as 10%, the most in over six months, after the dental implant maker reported organic growth ahead of expectations in the third quarter
- Mercedes-Benz shares rise as much as 7.9% to their highest intraday since March after the German carmaker confirmed its full-year outlook and said it plans to proceed with a €2 billion share buyback
- Next shares rise as much as 7.5% after the British clothing and homewares retailer boosted its profit guidance for the fourth time this year, to a level ahead of estimates and analysts say results were “impressive”
- OMV gains 3% after the Austrian oil and gas company reported its latest earnings, which analysts say is a solid showing, with a quarterly beat driven by an outperformance for its Fuels & Feedstock division as refining strength
- Moncler shares fell as much as 4.6% after the company reported “lackluster” third-quarter sales, according to Oddo BHF, whose analyst noted the Italian luxury group’s cautious tone for the rest of the year
- UBS shares declined as much as 2.4%, reversing earlier gains of much as 4%, after investor focus turns to potential legal risk from a Swiss court ruling canceling the controversial writedown of Credit Suisse bonds
- Epiroc falls as much as 8.1%, the most since July, after the Swedish mining equipment maker reported disappointing 3Q, with analysts flagging continued margin struggles and the print coming up short against elevated expectations
- Nordic Semiconductor shares fall as much as 8.8% after the chipmaker gave a 4Q sales guidance that met analyst estimates, but failed to inspire investors that had already pushed the stock up over 60% this year prior to the result
- Telenor shares drop as much as 4.9% after the telecom operator reported results that met expectations but flagged several risk factors in Asia, including an upcoming spectrum renewal at the Grameenphone subsidiary in Bangladesh
- SKF shares drop as much as 5.5%, pulling back from a four-and-a-half year high, after analysts at Citi said the maker of bearings and sealing systems pointed to weaker growth in the final quarter of the year
- Electrolux Professional falls as much as 10% after the company reported its latest earnings, with DNB Carnegie flagging misses on quarterly sales and Ebitda, with the latter weighed down by continued currency headwinds
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced, boosted by the technology sector on AI-driven earnings strength, as investors awaited a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%, with Nvidia suppliers Advantest and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts after reporting strong outlooks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2%, with gains also notable in South Korean and Taiwanese benchmarks. Trump arrived in South Korea, with which his administration is slated to sign a deal Wednesday on bolstering cooperation in AI and other areas. The US president will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Thursday as they look to finalize a sweeping trade agreement. Onshore Chinese equities advanced, while Hong Kong’s market was closed for a holiday. Equities declined in Australia, Singapore and Malaysia.
In FX, the dollar is strengthening after recent bout of weakness, with Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1%. Sterling underperforms.
In rates, treasuries edge lower across the curve, underperform European bonds as markets brace for a busy session that includes Federal Reserve rate decision and ongoing Asia trade negotiations. Yields at 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, the 10-year near 3.99%, trailing German and UK counterparts by 1bp and 2bp. Fed-dated OIS contracts fully price in a 25bp rate cut for today’s policy announcement and a combined 47bp by year-end, a period including just one additional decision in December; today’s meeting is anticipated also to include guidance on Fed’s plans to stop shrinking its holdings of Treasuries. A decision on that has potential to drive outperformance by Treasuries vs interest-rate swaps, benefiting a recently popular trade.
In commodities, gold rises back above $4,000/oz and oil prices remain volatile. Brent futures holding above $64/barrel. Copper hits a new record high amid broad gains for base metals.
Looking ahead, today’s key events include the Fed and BoC decisions. Data releases feature US September advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales; UK September net consumer credit; Italy’s September PPI and hourly wages; and Sweden’s September GDP indicator. Earnings are due from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, SK Hynix, UBS, and others. The US will auction $30bn in 2yr FRNs. And we also have the early general election in the Netherlands.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 3.99%
- VIX -0.1 points at 16.33
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1212.15
- euro -0.2% at $1.1628
- WTI crude -0.3% at $59.96/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump said he expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China as Beijing confirmed a high-stakes meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the American leader. Trump said he might discuss Nvidia’s advanced AI chips with China soon. CNBC
- Trump announces trade breakthrough with South Korea on Asia trip: RTRS
- Trump said he threatened India and Pakistan with 250% tariffs to help spur the resolution of their conflict earlier this year. BBG
- China has started purchasing American soybeans according to Reuters, a sign of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. RTRS
- Trump said they have secured commitments of over $18tln in new investments and that probably USD 21tln–22tln of investment is coming into the US by the end of the second term. Trump said he expects 4% GDP growth next quarter and that factories are booming in the US, while he commented that they will not have the Federal Reserve raising rates.
- The Republican-led Senate on Tuesday delivered a rare bipartisan rebuke of President Trump in a vote to terminate the emergency powers he has used to set tariffs on Brazil, part of a larger push to rein in the administration’s efforts to install trade barriers. This may prove to be just symbolic since Speaker Mike Johnson is unlikely to bring the measure up for a vote in the House. Politico
- Australia’s CPI overshoots the consensus in Sept (+3.5% vs. the Street +3.1%), dashing hopes for an RBA rate cut. WSJ
- Israel began re-enforcing a Gaza ceasefire after conducting overnight air strikes in retaliation for a Palestinian attack against its troops. BBG
- The US drugs regulator is preparing to accelerate approvals for cheaper generic versions of complex biological medicines, threatening to jeopardize revenue for some of the industry’s most profitable products. FT
- The BOC is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today to help an economy that’s suffering more damage from US tariffs, even as PM Mark Carney finalizes plans for a stimulative budget. BBG
- FOMC preview: The FOMC is set to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 3.75-4% at its October meeting next week. The median projection in the September dot plot showed a baseline of three cuts this year, and with the official data paused by the government shutdown and alternative labor market data mixed at best, there is no reason to deviate from the plan to support the labor market for now.
- The market cap of NVDA (~$4.86 trn) is closing in on the market cap of the entire Industrials S&P500 GICS (~$4.89 trillion), composed of 79 companies.
Trade/Tariffs
- Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, while he will discuss farmers and fentanyl with China. Trump reiterated that he thinks they will have a great meeting with Chinese President Xi and relations with China are very good. Furthermore, Trump said he may speak about NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Blackwell chip with Xi.
- Trump posts “Bringing back Trillions of Dollars to USA! A great trip. Dealing with very smart, talented, and wonderful Leaders. Tomorrow, President Xi of China. It will be a great meeting for both!!! President DJT”.
- Trump says the meeting with Chinese President Xi will be three hours long before returning back to the US; says things will work out very well with Xi tomorrow.
- China’s COFCO purchased three cargoes totalling 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump posted “For those that are asking, we didn’t come to South Korea to see Canada!” Trump separately commented that a trade deal with South Korea will be finalised very soon.
- South Korean President Lee’s office said that South Korean President Lee and US President Trump will discuss trade, investment and Korean peace, while it noted that Lee is to gift a mock-up of a golden crown to Trump and hopes that Trump’s visit will lead to a tangible outcome of cooperation.
- US Senate passed a bill to terminate Trump tariffs against Brazil.
- Chinese President Xi confirms meeting with US President Trump on Oct 30th in South Korea, via Xinhua. Chinese Foreign Ministry, on the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, says will inject new momentum into steady development of US-China relations; stands ready to work with the US for positive outcomes.
- Japanese PM Takaichi told US President Trump that banning LNG imports from Russia will be difficult according to Nikkei.
- US President Trump says, “we did reach a deal on trade with South Korea”, via Bloomberg.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly in the green following the tech strength on Wall St, where most indices extended on record highs, while participants now await the approaching flurry of risk events, including the FOMC and mega-cap earnings. ASX 200 retreated with the index dragged lower by notable weakness in health care, real estate, industrials, financials and tech, while firmer-than-expected inflation data further dampened hopes for a cut at next week’s RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 extended its rally and outperformed against regional peers after climbing above the 51,000 level for the first time, with tech stocks buoyed after the gains in US counterparts and strong Advantest earnings. Shanghai Comp was positive but with gains capped amid thinner volumes, with Stock Connect trade shut alongside the closure of markets in Hong Kong for a holiday, while it was also reported that China’s COFCO purchased 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.
Top Asian News
- South Korean President Lee said the global economy is facing various challenges, including supply chain shifts, while he added that a deepening trade and investment partnership is fundamental to Asia-Pacific nations, and he will propose an AI initiative at the APEC summit.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that he looks forward to working with Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and is encouraged by her understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a reflationary policy to a program that must balance growth and inflation concerns. Bessent also stated that “The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility.”
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said ‘no comment’ on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s X post, while Kihara added that monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan and he expects the BoJ to conduct monetary policy to appropriately achieve the inflation target. Furthermore, he said the government will continue to closely coordinate with the BoJ.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mixed, with price action this morning fairly rangebound awaiting today’s key risk events which include the FOMC policy decision and a slew of earnings. European sectors hold a negative bias. Autos takes the top spot, boosted by post-earning strength in Mercedes Benz (+6.9%) – headline Q3 metrics were not so great, but sentiment was already dampened heading into the results and investors may instead focus on the EUR 2bln buyback. Analysts at Jefferies suggested that the divisions figures saw “comfortable beats”. Other key movers today; GSK (+3%, headline beats and upgraded 2025 guidance), Deutsche Bank (+1.3%, strong Q3 profit growth), UBS (U/C, strong Q3 Net Income, plans USD 900mln buyback in Q4).
Top European News
- Politico reports that the full debate on a French wealth tax (i.e. the Zucman tax) will not happen on Wednesday or Thursday, but is likely on Friday.
FX
- DXY is on a firmer footing and trades at the upper end of a 98.62-99.00 range. Focus this morning has been on the ongoing US-China related updates, which in-brief have been positive. US President Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, while he will discuss farmers and fentanyl with China – most recently the President posted on Truth that “it will be a great meeting” for both countries. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that China’s COFCO purchased three cargoes totalling 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters. Focus ahead is ultimately on the Fed policy announcement, where a 25bps cut is expected. Decision aside, traders will be keen on any guidance (particularly in the context of policymakers’ visibility surrounding the shutdown), and look out for details on plans to end QT.
- EUR is on the backfoot and trades within a 1.1620-1.1660 range; largely moving at the whim of the USD, given the lack of European specific newsflow. On the data front, Spanish Estimated GDP Q/Q printed in-line with expectations (0.6%), whilst Y/Y was a touch softer at 2.8% (exp. 3%) – no move in the Single-currency on this. Attention now turns to the ECB on Thursday, but will ultimately lack surprises as markets almost entirely price in no change to the current policy.
- JPY is very modestly lower today, with USD/JPY trading within a 151.55-152.44 range. Out of favour today after strengthening in the prior session thanks to the US-Japan trade deal and mild haven allure. Some focus has been on US Treasury Sec Bessent who said “The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility”.
- GBP is one of the worst performing currencies today, continuing some of the underperformance seen in the prior session. The Pound has been out of favour recently, following the FT article which suggested Chancellor Reeves may face a GBP 20bln hit to UK public finances after a productivity downgrade. Currently towards the lower end of a 1.3199 to 1.3280 range.
- Antipodeans are mixed; the Aussie remains a touch firmer but off best levels following the region’s hotter-than-expected inflation report, whilst the Kiwi has been dragged lower by the USD.
Fixed Income
- USTs are lower by a handful of ticks, following on from a soft 7yr auction on Wednesday and as traders now await the Fed policy decision. A 25bps cut is all but certain. A decision that will likely be subject to dissent with Miran seemingly set to vote for 50bps again, after remarking since the September Fed that 25bps is too slow a pace of easing. Commentary from Powell will focus on December, -46bps implied by end-2025, and the balance sheet. QT forms the other part of the decision. Desks expect an announcement from the Fed on the balance sheet as Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves hit an ample level in the coming months vs the current “abundant” level, a point the Fed has previously suggested it would want to hold reserves at. USTs are marginally pressured in a thin 113-11+ to 113-16+ band.
- Bunds are contained with a very marginal bearish bias, as is the case for USTs. Specifics light so far. Supply once again in focus from Germany, this time Bunds are offered after another dismal Bobl tap earlier in the week. Bunds currently at a 129.47 low, with downside of 10 ticks at most. Moving to France, another chance for a compromise to be found between the Lecornu government and Socialist Party. As Politico reports that the full debate on a French wealth tax (i.e. the Zucman tax) will not happen on Wednesday or Thursday, but is likely on Friday. Currently, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is holding just shy of the 80bps mark.
- Gilts follow the mood across peers. The morning’s data showed an increase in individual mortgage borrowing to the highest since March 2025 with mortgage approvals also increasing. Activity driven by the effective interest rate on new mortgages dropping to 4.19%, its lowest since January 2023 when the rate was 3.88%. Gilts at the lower-end of a 93.71-89 band, within Tuesday’s 93.62 to 93.96 confines. No real move on the UK auction, which drew a b/c above 3.00x.
- UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.04x, average yield 4.191%, tail 0.3bps
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are trading choppy today. Morning action saw the complex pressured, despite a bullish private sector inventory report in the prior session. A quite marked bout of pressure was seen at the European cash open, which happened to coincide with commentary via the Israeli military; they suggested that it begun a renewed enforcement of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, after striking the region in the past day. However, this has since entirely reversed, with the complex now slightly higher on the session. Brent Dec’25 trades in a busy USD 63.92-64.79/bbl range.
- Spot gold is back on a stronger footing today, after a three days of losses. Nothing really fresh for the upside, but likely some modest-buying after falling below the USD 4k mark earlier in the week; as it stands the yellow-metal trades in a USD 3,907.92-4,021.79/oz range and awaits the Fed policy decision.
- Base metals are entirely in the green, amidst the broadly positive sentiment across the APAC region in anticipation of the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday. 3M LME Copper currently in a USD 10,987.75-11,146.3/t range.
- India’s MRPL Exec says they will not be purchasing Russian oil due to risks.
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Distillate -4.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -6.3mln (exp. -1.9mln), Cushing +1.7mln.
- Ukraine hits two oil depots in Russian-occupied Crimea, according to an SBU official.
Geopolitics
- Israeli Military says it begins renewed enforcement of Gaza ceasefire agreement.
- North Korea fired a missile and stated that the missile is part of its nuclear forces, according to KCNA.
- Chinese Defence Ministry said it held talks with India about the border, while it added that both sides had active and in-depth communication on the control of the western section of the China-India border. Furthermore, they agreed to continue to maintain communication and dialogue through military and diplomatic channels.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the security situation around Japan remains severe and noted that their alliance is critical to deterring Chinese military aggression.
- “The strikes in the Gaza Strip are nearing completion”, according to i24’s Stein citing Israeli officials from Jerusalem Post; “In light of the ongoing violations, additional response measures will be taken.”.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Oct 24 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.1%, prior -0.3%
- 8:30 am: Sep P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.15%
- 10:00 am: Sep Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 4%
- 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 4%, prior 4.25%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Another post-op day of not too much pain during the day and then a lot of pain at night. I never knew I had hip flexors before they had to bear the brunt of my recent spinal adjustments. Although the most pain yesterday was actually shaving off a two-week-old beard. That was agony!
A quick reminder that our latest annual Long-Term Study, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, was published on Monday. It’s currently featured as the lead report on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here, and is open access—so feel free to share it widely. While it may not rival the billion-plus streams of Taylor Swift’s latest album released earlier this month, I’ve been genuinely humbled by the response: around 8,000 downloads in the first 36 hours. Thank you all for the great support but let’s get a little bit nearer to Taylor.
Turning to markets, while global equities have largely consolidated over the past 24 hours, US stocks continued their upward trajectory yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by +0.23%, the Nasdaq gained +0.80%, and the Magnificent 7 advanced +1.27%, all notching fresh highs. Despite the headline gains, the breadth of the rally was rather narrow. In fact, there were only 104 advancers in the S&P 500, the fewest in over two weeks, and actually the fewest on an up day as far back as my data on advancers and decliners goes (to 1990). So remarkable. This came ahead of today’s widely anticipated 25bps Fed rate cut—which is fully priced—and earnings releases from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta after the bell.
The rally was once again driven by tech and AI momentum, despite a packed macro and geopolitical backdrop. Notably, the US announced new trade initiatives with Japan and South Korea, while the new ADP’s preliminary private payrolls data helped ease some labour market fears. In contrast, European equities gave back some recent gains, with the STOXX 600 down -0.22%, while yields were little changed.
Nvidia (+4.98%) again topped the list of standout corporate developments, with CEO Jensen Huang dismissing concerns about an AI bubble as he unveiled a flurry of new partnerships with the likes of Uber, Palantir and Crowdstrike as well as a $1bn investment into Nokia and a new system to connect quantum computers to Nvidia’s AI chips. Nokia itself rose nearly 21% to the highest in around a decade. Maybe they’ll bring back the (wonderful) game snake! Meanwhile, Microsoft rose +1.98% after revealing a 27% stake in OpenAI, which in turn committed to purchasing up to $250bn in Azure services. That move left Microsoft back above $4trn market cap mark, with Apple (+0.07%) also flirting with that level intra-day before closing at a $3.99trn valuation. PayPal also rallied +3.94% following an earnings upgrade and news of a partnership with OpenAI. If you’ve been tracking OpenAI’s deal flow lately, you’ve had your hands full. The AI-driven exuberance lifted the Magnificent 7 by +1.27%, even as Amazon (+1.00%) announced plans to cut around 14,000 corporate roles as part of a broader resource reallocation strategy.
The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 was down -0.91% as defensive sectors such as utilities (-1.66%) and consumer staples (-0.95%) struggled. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese firms, fell -1.23% amid some investor nerves ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit. However, sentiment improved slightly after reports from the Wall Street Journal suggested the two leaders may discuss rolling back some of a 20% fentanyl-related US tariffs in exchange for Chinese action on fentanyl precursor exports. Overnight Trump has confirmed he expects progress this week on fentanyl. On Monday we mentioned this as a key metric on which to judge the Trump-Xi meeting.
US tech sentiment also benefited from trade announcements. The US and Japan unveiled plans to collaborate on AI infrastructure and critical minerals, tied to Japan’s $500bn investment pledge and a 15% tariff agreement. Bloomberg later reported that a similar deal with South Korea—focused on AI, quantum computing, and 6G—could be signed later today. Details remain sparse, but more clarity is expected imminently.
Today’s marquee event, aside from earnings, is the FOMC meeting. A 25bps rate cut is widely expected, bringing the target range to 3.75–4%. With the US government shutdown now in its fifth week, our economists anticipate that Chair Powell’s press conference will pivot away from economic data—given its scarcity—and instead focus on balance sheet policy, the policy framework review, and financial stability. For a full preview, see here. On QT, our team expects the Fed to announce an end to the programme today, with run-off concluding next month.
Ahead of the Fed, we received a few data points yesterday that modestly surprised to the upside. An ADP report showed a weekly average gain of 14,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks to October 11, so translating to a +57k monthly pace—which would represent some stabilization after recent slowing in the ADP jobs series. Notably, ADP will now publish weekly preliminary job estimates, offering a more high-frequency lens on labour market dynamics. Meanwhile, the FHFA house price index rose +0.4% m/m, its strongest monthly print since last year, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index came in at 94.6 (vs 93.4 expected), though still a point below the prior month’s upwardly revised figure. These data points helped nudge Treasury yields higher early in the US session, but both the 2yr (-0.2bps) and 10yr (-0.4bps) reversed this move later on as breakevens fell amid a decline in oi price (-1.84% to $64.41/bbl for Brent).
Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is also expected to announce a 25bps cut today. You can see our FX strategists’ quick take on the BoC and the Canadian dollar here.
Today will also see the Dutch general election, with polls closing at 9pm CET tonight. The early vote was triggered when the right-wing populist PVV pulled out of the ruling coalition in June. PVV has led in opinion polls but its lead has ebbed away most recently and it appears likely to get fewer seats than in the last election two years ago.
Looking at European moves yesterday, French equities saw a modest pullback amid the ongoing budget deliberations as the centre-left has pushed for more changes while the government seeks to keep the deficit below 5%. As a reminder, the first part of the French budget bill—covering revenues and the overall balance—is currently under debate in the National Assembly, with a vote expected by 4 November. The CAC fell -0.27%, though 10yr OATs (+0.3bps) marginally outperformed bunds (+0.8bps).
Across the continent, the STOXX 600 slipped -0.22%, while the FTSE 100 continued its record-breaking run, up +0.44%. The DAX edged down -0.12% after Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment forecast for November disappointed (-24.1 vs -22.0 expected), driven by a sharp drop in income expectations amid job security concerns. The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey also pointed to a slight softening in credit conditions, suggesting that the transmission of recent monetary easing may be slowing. While unlikely to alter Thursday’s rate decision—expected to remain on hold at 2%—at the margin, the survey may give cause for a more dovish tilt. For more, see our economists’ analysis here.
Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning, supported by record closing highs on Wall Street overnight. The Nikkei is leading the gains, up +2.28%, reaching a new record high amid renewed optimism over US-Japan trade relations. The KOSPI has also rebounded strongly, rising +1.26% after losses in the previous session, with sentiment buoyed by enthusiasm around AI. Mainland Chinese stocks are also in positive territory, with the CSI 300 up +0.74% and the Shanghai Composite gaining +0.42%, while the Hang Seng remains closed. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is underperforming, down -0.97%, following hotter-than-expected inflation data that has dampened expectations for near-term policy easing. US equity futures are pointing higher, with the S&P 500 up +0.21% and the NASDAQ 100 up +0.37% at the time of writing.
In Australia, inflation accelerated during the September quarter, with consumer prices rising at an annual rate of +3.2%, above the +3.0% consensus and up from +2.1% in the June quarter. Headline inflation rose +1.3% quarter-on-quarter, marking the strongest quarterly increase since March 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred trimmed mean measure also surprised to the upside, increasing +1.0% over the quarter versus an RBA assumption of +0.6% and a recent market expectation of 0.8%. This pushed the annual trimmed mean rate to +3.0%, up from +2.7% in June. The hotter inflation print has led to a sell-off in short-dated Australian government bonds, with yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year bonds climbing +12.0bps to 3.57%, and 10-year yields rising +5.1bps to 4.22%. The Australian dollar continues to strengthen, rising for a fifth consecutive session and currently trading at 0.6597 against the US dollar, up +0.18%.
Looking ahead, today’s key events include the Fed and BoC decisions. Data releases feature US September advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales; UK September net consumer credit; Italy’s September PPI and hourly wages; and Sweden’s September GDP indicator. Earnings are due from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, SK Hynix, UBS, and others. The US will auction $30bn in 2yr FRNs. And we also have the early general election in the Netherlands.
b) European opening report
China to purchase US soybeans; European equity futures lower – Newsquawk European Opening News
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 03:05 AM
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green following the tech strength on Wall St, most indices extended to record highs.
- US President Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China. China said to have made soybean purchase.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash index closed with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.
- USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with GBP still under pressure. AUD leads as hot Aus CPI dashes hopes of an RBA rate cut next month.
- Israeli planes launched strikes on Gaza City. US VP Vance said he thinks peace in the Middle East will hold despite skirmishes.
- Looking ahead, highlights US Pending Homes (Sep), FOMC & BoC Policy Announcements, US President Trump to meet South Korea’s Leader, Fed Chair Powell & BoC’s Macklem, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
- Earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Google, Starbucks, eBay, Verizon, Boeing, CVS, Caterpillar, Phillips 66, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, Santander, GSK & Airbus.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were ultimately mixed although most indices finished in the green in which the SPX, DJIA and NDX extended on record highs, with outperformance in tech amid strength in NVIDIA (+5%) alongside CEO Huang’s keynote address at GTC, where new lines of products and roadmaps were unveiled, including NVIDIA Arc, 17 quantum builders, and 7 new AI supercomputers. Furthermore, the Co. sees USD 500bln of business in the next five quarters. Microsoft (+2%) also facilitated the upside in tech after signing a new pact with OpenAI, which includes OpenAI being contracted to purchase USD 25bln of Azure services as well as removing fundraising constraints for OpenAI. On the flip side, most sectors were pressured, with Real Estate the biggest loser as poor guidance from Alexandria Real Estate (-19.2%) weighed.
- SPX +0.23% at 6,891, NDX +0.74% at 26,012, DJI +0.34% at 47,706, RUT -0.60% at 2.507.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdown, in which the US would cut in half the 20% levies on Chinese goods imposed in retaliation for the export of chemicals that make deadly synthetic opioids. However, the expected agreements are subject to change and dependent on the meeting of the two leaders, while details are expected to be hammered out in subsequent negotiations, while the US and China are also expected to reduce port fees on each other’s ships, according to WSJ.
- US President Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, while he will discuss farmers and fentanyl with China. Trump reiterated that he thinks they will have a great meeting with Chinese President Xi and relations with China are very good. Furthermore, Trump said he may speak about NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Blackwell chip with Xi.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang said he is confident that US President Trump will reach a good deal with China, while he added the company is currently completely shut out of China and that NVIDIA’s share of the AI chip market in China is down to zero. Huang also stated that NVIDIA hasn’t sought a license to ship Blackwell to China and assumes the Chinese market to remain at zero for NVIDIA, as well as noted that a return to China would be a “huge bonus” for NVIDIA.
- China’s COFCO purchased three cargoes totalling 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump posted “For those that are asking, we didn’t come to South Korea to see Canada!” Trump separately commented that a trade deal with South Korea will be finalised very soon.
- South Korean President Lee’s office said that South Korean President Lee and US President Trump will discuss trade, investment and Korean peace, while it noted that Lee is to gift a mockup of a golden crown to Trump and hopes that Trump’s visit will lead to a tangible outcome of cooperation.
- US Charge d’affaires in Brazil met mining executives on Tuesday to discuss rare earths, while it was separately reported that the US Senate passed a bill to terminate Trump tariffs against Brazil.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said they have secured commitments of over USD 18tln in new investments and that probably USD 21tln–22tln of investment is coming into the US by the end of the second term. Trump said he expects 4% GDP growth next quarter and that factories are booming in the US, while he commented that they will not have the Federal Reserve raising rates.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) announced it was partnering with multiple companies including ServiceNow (NOW), Keysight (KEYS), Zoom (ZM), Synopsys (SNPS), Cisco (CSCO), Supermicro (SMCI), Microsoft (MSFT), and others, while it sees USD 500bln of business in the next six quarters and plans to unveil new contracts to supply AI chips to major South Korean companies.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green following the tech strength on Wall St, where most indices extended on record highs, while participants now await the approaching flurry of risk events, including the FOMC and mega-cap earnings.
- ASX 200 retreated with the index dragged lower by notable weakness in health care, real estate, industrials, financials and tech, while firmer-than-expected inflation data further dampened hopes for a cut at next week’s RBA meeting.
- Nikkei 225 extended its rally and outperformed against regional peers after climbing above the 51,000 level for the first time, with tech stocks buoyed after the gains in US counterparts and strong Advantest earnings.
- Shanghai Comp was positive but with gains capped amid thinner volumes, with Stock Connect trade shut alongside the closure of markets in Hong Kong for a holiday, while it was also reported that China’s COFCO purchased 180k tonnes of US soybeans ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.
- US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.4%) are firmer after the prior day’s fresh record highs on Wall St, where tech did most of the heavy lifting, while participants now await the Fed rate decision and presser, followed by several Mag-7 earnings.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY eked mild gains but with upside capped after yesterday’s mixed data and choppy performance in which initial upside was stalled by resistance just shy of the 99.00 level, while focus turns to the FOMC and post-meeting press conference, with money markets virtually fully pricing in a 25bps cut.
- EUR/USD trickled lower following recent whipsawing and amid a lack of pertinent catalysts, while the latest ECB consumer expectations survey showed 1-year expectations were slightly lowered, but 3-year and 5-year expectations were unchanged from the previous.
- GBP/USD was subdued beneath the 1.3300 handle after the prior day’s underperformance amid fiscal concerns.
- USD/JPY saw two-way price action and ultimately gained after recovering from an initial dip beneath the 152.00 level, with the rebound facilitated by the risk appetite, while the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting where it is expected to hold off from hiking rates.
- Antipodeans were kept afloat with AUD/USD underpinned after firmer-than-expected CPI data, which added to the spoils from yesterday’s outperformance that had been facilitated by US-China trade optimism. Furthermore, the data spurred the likes of Goldman Sachs and CBA dropping their rate cut calls. Odds of a November cut have slipped to 8% from circa 42% pre-release.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0843 vs exp. 7.0962 (Prev. 7.0856)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures flatlined after the recent choppy mood and as participants braced for the FOMC decision and presser and digested a solid 7 year auction.
- Bund futures were uneventful and continued to linger beneath the 130.00 level, with demand not helped by incoming supply.
- 10yr JGB futures retreated amid the outperformance seen in Japanese stocks, while the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day meeting, where it is expected to continue refraining from hiking rates, although participants will be on the lookout for any clues on when it may resume policy normalisation.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures initially rebounded but ultimately lost steam, despite bullish weekly private sector inventory data.
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Distillate -4.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -6.3mln (exp. -1.9mln), Cushing +1.7mln.
- Spot gold lacked conviction and lingered beneath the USD 4,000/oz level as participants await the FOMC.
- Copper futures initially traded sideways, failing to benefit from the mostly constructive mood before picking up ahead of the European open.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively overnight beneath the USD 113k level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- South Korean President Lee said the global economy is facing various challenges, including supply chain shifts, while he added that a deepening trade and investment partnership is fundamental to Asia-Pacific nations, and he will propose an AI initiative at the APEC summit.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that he looks forward to working with Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and is encouraged by her understanding of how Abenomics has moved from a reflationary policy to a program that must balance growth and inflation concerns. Bessent also stated that “The Government’s willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility.”
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said ‘no comment’ on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s X post, while Kihara added that monetary policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan and he expects the BoJ to conduct monetary policy to appropriately achieve the inflation target. Furthermore, he said the government will continue to closely coordinate with the BoJ.
DATA RECAP
- Australian CPI QQ (Q3) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.7%)
- Australian CPI YY (Q3) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.1%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q3) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YY (Q3) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Australian Weighted CPI YY (Sep) 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%)
- Australian CPI Annual Trimmed Mean YY (Sep) 2.80% (Prev. 2.60%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli planes launched strikes on Gaza City.
- Hamas said it had no connection to an attack on Israeli forces in Rafah, and it is committed to a ceasefire deal.
- US VP Vance said he thinks peace in the Middle East will hold despite skirmishes.
OTHER
- North Korea fired a missile and stated that the missile is part of its nuclear forces, according to KCNA.
- Chinese Defence Ministry said it held talks with India about the border, while it added that both sides had active and in-depth communication on the control of the western section of the China-India border. Furthermore, they agreed to continue to maintain communication and dialogue through military and diplomatic channels.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the security situation around Japan remains severe and noted that their alliance is critical to deterring Chinese military aggression.
- Belarus is to deploy the Oreshnik missile in December, according to TASS.
c) Asian opening report
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//USA/
Trump Secures Trade Deal With South Korea As China Signals Willingness To “Cooperate” Ahead Of Bilateral Talks
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 06:55 AM
President Trump told reporters that the U.S. and South Korea had “reached a deal on trade” during a dinner at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The announcement follows a series of major trade deals Trump has secured just this week on his Asia tour and sets the stage for the highly anticipated trade meeting tomorrow with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“We did reach a deal on trade,” Trump told reporters at the dinner. No additional details about the agreement were provided, and neither the White House nor South Korean officials have issued an official statement outlining the terms.
Trump called his meetings with South Korea “tremendous” and said he had “pretty much finalized a trade deal,” adding, “I think we came to a conclusion on a lot of very important items.”
The pure logistics behind Trump’s demand that South Korea invest $350 billion in cash in America have raised red flags with some Korean officials. Those officials told ABC News that loans and loan guarantees would be a much better pathway to strengthen ties, adding the country would also need a swap line to manage currency flows.
Trump’s deal with South Korea builds on the previous deals he locked earlier this week, including $490 billion in investment commitments from Japan.
Trump’s deal-making momentum will carry into Thursday, when he will meet with Xi to discuss a U.S.-China trade deal. Well ahead of the meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides have agreed on “a successful framework.”
UBS analyst Andy Lau confirmed that China is ready to cooperate with the U.S. on “positive bilateral trade talks”:
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told state media that Beijing is ready to work with the U.S. for a positive outcome and open to more cooperation on fentanyl. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will have in-depth talks, he said, with their meeting set for Thursday in Busan.
Coverage this week of Trump’s deals:
- Bessent Announces US-China Trade “Framework” Reached; Rare Earth Controls Deferred + Thailand and Cambodia deals
- Trump Praises Japan As Key Ally, Signs Rare-Earths Deal And U.S. Investment Boost
Trump confirms tomorrow’s Xi talks.
Cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket has odds of around 78% that Trump secures a China trade deal tomorrow.
The grand finale of trade deals could come as soon as tomorrow. If not, stocks could very well puke.
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
HUNGARY.USA/RUSSIA
GERMANY EU//CHINAKOLBE
Trade Secrets Vs. Rare Earths: EU Faces Chinese Pressure As U.S. Moves
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
China is responding increasingly aggressively to mounting trade pressure from Washington. The practice of forcing even German companies to hand over trade secrets in exchange for rare earths exposes the Chinese leadership’s coercive stance. For Europeans, it is high time to align with the U.S.
For months, German firms with a need for rare earths have faced growing pressure from regulators in China: to maintain access to this critical group of raw materials, they are compelled by Chinese authorities to disclose sensitive operational and supply chain data—a form of technological tribute that creates long-term strategic dependencies and extracts know-how from German industry under Beijing’s state coercion.
Of course, this practice applies to companies from other EU states as well. Germans are by no means alone in being forced to surrender economic sovereignty.
Everything Is Exposed
According to an analysis by Bloomberg Law, the catalog demanded by Chinese authorities includes precise data and detailed information on internal production processes, customer lists, end uses, and supply chains. Everything potentially useful to Chinese competitors is laid bare.
In one case, German trader Magnosphere reported that Chinese authorities requested confidential data, including product and manufacturing details, before issuing export licenses.
Another example: European chemical and specialty materials group Solvay recently announced plans to expand its rare earth production capacity in La Rochelle, precisely because dependence on China is a threat.
In short, German companies face a choice: raw materials or sovereignty, with the risk of massive production disruptions if Beijing restricts exports. German automakers, in particular, are acutely aware of this issue—the conflict is escalating and will not vanish amid China’s economic and domestic political struggles.
China’s economy is caught in a deflationary spiral, unemployment is rising, and American pressure on the Chinese export model forces the political leadership to implement rapid course corrections.
It was foreseeable that the Communist Party would leverage every available geopolitical instrument in such a situation.
China Dominates the Market
The dispute over rare earths, now a strategic battleground in the geopolitical power struggle of major players, reveals their fundamental importance to the modern economy: they are the nervous system of industrial manufacturing. No neodymium, no aircraft production, no electric mobility, no artificial intelligence.
China has so far controlled up to 90% of global processing of this group of raw materials. About 60% of known deposits are located in Chinese territory.
The European Union remains largely powerless in this power play. Through subsidized recycling programs and its own partnership initiative, it seeks to secure access to rare earths worldwide. Yet here, as in trade policy vis-à-vis the U.S., it is equally ineffective. Today, the entire geopolitical focus is on the U.S.-China conflict. Europe is marginalized.
U.S. Sets Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump has begun dismantling the strategic dependency the U.S. faces, similar to the EU. By threatening Chinese exports to the U.S. worth $300 billion with additional 100% tariffs, he forced Beijing onto the defensive.
China had threatened to choke high-tech supply chains. Then came Trump’s 72-hour turnaround. While the EU scrapes its last reserves to sustain the lost Ukraine conflict and entangles itself in regulatory debates, Americans created facts.
A raw materials agreement was signed with Malaysia, Thailand inked a processing deal, and Australia committed billions to developing new mines. Mining rights in Cambodia were also secured.
Alternative Trade Formation
An alternative network of supply locations is emerging, with the potential to break China’s rare earth market dominance for the first time in 30 years. Trade flows are shifting at rapid speed: U.S.-China trade is shrinking sharply, with Chinese exports to the U.S. down about 27% this year, while ASEAN business booms. Washington is leveraging its massive domestic market—about a quarter of the global economy—as a geopolitical tool.
Trump’s message to partner states is clear: either play by our rules and gain access to the U.S. market on our terms, or face Beijing alone. Even if this requires your companies to hand over patents and trade secrets to secure measured supplies of scarce resources from China.
“Choose Your Fighter!” is now the Europeans’ stark reality.
EU Should Join Forces with the U.S.
The EU should urgently reconsider its stance toward Washington. On its own, energy-dependent and resource-poor Europe cannot free itself from China’s grip. Beijing’s leverage is enormous. Europeans currently watch passively as China turns its export engine into a dumping ground for shrinking U.S. trade and systematically crushes local companies with massive subsidies and state export guarantees.
Europe should align with Washington and accept American conditions for true free trade. This means finally abandoning typical European protectionism: the climate regulatory jungle, technocratic harmonization catalogs, and a dangerously aggressive censorship policy targeting U.S. tech companies.
In short: Europe must decide whether to remain a powerless regulatory advocate or challenge Chinese power alongside the U.S., playing by its rules rather than bowing helplessly.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
END
GERMANY/USA/RUSSIA
US Excludes Rosneft Germany From Russia Sanctions, Floats 6-Month Window
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 02:45 AM
Germany’s Economy Minister told Reuters on Tuesday that the Trump administration had provided written confirmation that the German division of Russia’s Rosneft would be excluded from new American energy sanctions, since the assets are no longer under Russian control.
Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said Washington had sent a “Letter of Comfort” acknowledging that Rosneft Deutschland had been completely separated from its Russian parent company. Further, the United States has reportedly given Germany six months to resolve the issue of how Rosneft’s German assets will be managed, Bloomberg has reported.Via dpa
In the meantime a temporary restricted license for Rosneft Deutschland is under consideration, which Berlin is heavily reviewing. The company holds stakes in three German refineries, representing around 12% of the country’s total refining capacity.
Berlin has thus far refrained from full nationalization of the assets on fears that this drastic action could prompt severe retaliatory measures by Moscow against German companies still operating in Russia.
Earlier in the week, Germany’s Economy ministry sought to assure, “The government is in contact with relevant authorities in Washington.”
Berlin has been arguing that the new sanctions should avoid targeting Rosneft’s subsidiaries in Germany as they remain “decoupled from their Russian parent company.”
Financial Times has pointed out there could be serious domestic political ramifications hanging in the balance:
The PCK refinery, in the north-eastern German town of Schwedt, is of particular concern, one person familiar with the assets said. Sitting atop the Druzhba pipeline, about 4,000km from central Russia, it accounts for more than 12 per cent of Germany’s refinery capacity, making it one of the largest oil processing companies in the country.
The threat to the refineries is yet another challenge for the German government, which is struggling to reignite a stagnant economy grappling with high energy prices — the costly legacy of previous chancellors to shut down nuclear plants and to rely on cheap Russian energy imports.
The PCK refinery also poses a political problem for the ruling coalition between Merz’s Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats: it is a large employer in the former communist state of Brandenburg, where support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged.
As Politico notes of the fresh US sanctions, “Donald Trump’s surprise move to sanction Russia’s largest oil companies won’t paralyze Vladimir Putin’s war machine — but it will help the EU kick Russian oil out of the bloc for good.”
Last week, he announced the “tremendous” new sanctions targeting Russia’s Lukoil and its state-owned Rosneft, and “The details of the new measures are still being worked out. But in theory, they threaten to force the two firms to sell their assets and end their remaining oil pipeline supplies to Europe.”
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israel resumes enforcing ceasefire after strikes responding to Hamas violation
“We have hit dozens of targets and carried out numerous targeted eliminations of Hamas terrorists,” a source told The Jerusalem Post.
A Palestinian boy inspects the site of an overnight Israeli strike on a house, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, October 29, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa)ByAMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 29, 2025 09:36Updated: OCTOBER 29, 2025 10:52
Following a series of strikes across the Gaza Strip that came in response to Hamas’s numerous ceasefire violations, the IDF on Wednesday announced that it had resumed enforcing the ceasefire.
“In accordance with the directive of the political echelon, and following a series of strikes, in which dozens of terror targets and terrorists were struck, the IDF has begun the renewed enforcement of the ceasefire in response to Hamas’s violations,” the military stated.
During the military action, the military and Shin Bet struck more than 30 terrorists “holding command positions,” the IDF added, noting that it would continue to maintain and respond to violations of the ceasefire.
Previously, an Israeli official had told The Jerusalem Post that Israel’s strikes across the Gaza Strip were “nearing completion.”
“We have hit dozens of targets and carried out numerous targeted eliminations of Hamas terrorists. This is our decision; we struck every target on the list,” the source said, adding that Israel is planning additional measures in light of the ongoing violations.
Following the IDF announcement, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that, in response to Hamas’s ceasefire violations, namely the attack on Israeli troops and its failure to return the remains of all the deceased hostages, the military had thwarted dozens of the terror group’s commanders.
“There is and will be no immunity for any of the leadership of the Hamas terror organization – neither those wearing suits nor those hiding in tunnels – whoever raises his hand against IDF soldiers – his hand will be cut off,” Katz stated.
Hamas kills IDF soldier in Gaza as fighting continues
On Tuesday, Chief Sgt. First Class (Res.) Yona Efraim “Efi” Feldbaum was killed in the Gaza Strip by Hamas sniper fire.
Earlier that day, the IDF intensified its strikes across Gaza after Hamas fired at soldiers in the southern part of the Strip, according to Palestinian reports.
It struck in the area of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, per Muhammad Abu Salmiya, the hospital’s director-general.
Hamas terrorists also attempted to reach a weapons cache hidden within a mosque in an IDF-controlled part of the Gaza Strip on the same day as Hamas released the final living hostages from captivity, according to an Army Radio report.
Army Radio reported that the group of terrorists crossed the Yellow Line, the perimeter to which the IDF withdrew following the implementation of the US-brokered Israel-Gaza ceasefire, before they were spotted by an IDF drone.
The terrorists were apprehended and detained by IDF soldiers before they reached the mosque, which is less than a mile away from the border fence opposite Kibbutz Nahal Oz.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Gaza Ceasefire Has Resumed After Israeli Soldier & Over 100 Palestinians Were Killed Tuesday
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 09:00 AM
After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday instructed the country’s military to “carry out powerful strikes in Gaza,” the IDF followed in a Wednesday morning statement saying it has resumed the ceasefire in Gaza. The military indicated it had launched “series of significant strikes in which dozens of terror targets and terrorists were attacked” – the result of Hamas gunmen allegedly opening fire on its troops.
Israel says that during this ground attack by Hamas in Rafah, an Israeli reservists was killed. “The slain soldier was named as Master Sgt. (res.) Yona Efraim Feldbaum, 37, a heavy machinery operator in the Gaza Division, from the West Bank settlement of Neria,” Times of Israel reports.
But Gaza health authorities said more than 100 Palestinians were killed in the fresh strikes Tuesday strikes, which have at this point abated. Israel announced at 10am (local) that the ceasefire is once again in effect.
Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer in international security at King’s College London, articulated his view to Al Jazeera that the strikes were “more or less clearly coordinated with the United States.”
“Yes, Israel launched all of these strikes. Yes, this may feel like a breach of the ceasefire,” he said. “But it’s unlikely that this wasn’t agreed in advance with the Americans.” He says Washington would have been on board with retribution, albeit brief or temporary, given an Israeli soldier was killed despite the Trump-brokered ceasefire being on.
Pinfold described that US officials would “almost certainly be saying in private to the Israeli government: ‘OK, you have a right to respond but you also have a necessity to stop. We are not letting you collapse the deal.’” He conveyed that Israel’s government, “particularly Netanyahu, knows that for the time being at least this deal is too big to fail. He cannot be seen as being the leader that collapses the agreement.”
Indeed, President Donald Trump when asked about it said he backs Israel’s strikes, calling the move “retribution” for an assault on Israeli troops.
Trump said “Israel should hit back” after Israel said Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement, but still ultimately called for the ceasefire to hold. Before this Tuesday flare-up in fighting and strikes, it had held for a little over two weeks.
“Nothing’s going to jeopardize that,” Trump said in reference to the ceasefire. “You have to understand, Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East, and they have to behave. They’re on the rough side, but they said they would be good. And if they’re good, they’re going to be happy, and if they’re not good, they’re going to be terminated. Their lives will be terminated. And they understand that.”
The US President added, “If we have to, we’ll take out Hamas very easily, and that’ll be the end of Hamas. We would rather not. We made a deal with them where they were going to behave, and they have to behave. If they don’t behave, they get taken out.”
ISRAEL AND UAE
Israeli Defense Firm Opens Regional Arm In UAE, First Since Abraham Accords
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 – 06:25 PM
An Israeli state-owned defense company has set up a subsidiary to operate in the United Arab Emirates, in the first such move since Israel and Abu Dhabi normalized relations in 2020.
Controp Precision Technologies will establish and register the subsidiary in the Abu Dhabi Global Market, or ADGM, an economic zone in the Emirati capital. The Israeli defense ministry approved the move on Sunday, the Times of Israel reported.
The Abu Dhabi-based subsidiary will be Controp’s regional arm in the Gulf region, overseeing marketing, sales and maintenance of its electro-optical systems used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions across air, land and sea.
The Times of Israel reported that at a later stage, Controp will directly compete for defense tenders in the UAE and neighboring countries.
The UAE normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords in September 2020. Since then, the two countries have strengthened economic and political ties. Trade of goods between Israel and the UAE totalled around $3.2bn in 2024, according to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics.
In January, Thirdeye Systems, an Israeli military supplier, sold a 30 percent stake to Emirati state-owned defense conglomerate Edge for $10m.
Relations became somewhat strained after the outbreak of the Gaza war, with the UAE offering occasional condemnations of Israeli actions. In September, Abu Dhabi described an Israeli attack on Hamas officials on Qatar as “treacherous”, using unusually strong rhetoric.
Earlier this month, a number of Israeli defense companies were banned from the Dubai Airshow pending a “technical review”.
Controp was founded in 1988 to develop and manufacture electro optical control systems for intelligence surveillance. Its camera systems are used in drones, helicopters, land vehicles, surveillance towers and vessels.
The investment in establishing the UAE subsidiary is estimated to cost up to $30m, according to the Times of Israel. The report added that the subsidiary would be managed by an Israeli citizen, and full control would remain in the hands of the Israeli parent company.
END
TURKEY
Turkey’s First Domestic-Made Main Battle Tank Enters Service, Erdogan Hails Defeat Of Embargoes
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Turkey has officially delivered its first domestically produced Altay tanks to the armed forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced during the opening of the BMC Ankara Tank and New Generation Armored Vehicles Production Facility on Tuesday.
The Altay is the country’s first homegrown main battle tank, and is being mass-produced at the Ankara plant operated by Turkish automaker BMC.
Erdogan in remarks touted that the tanks underwent an extensive testing process, involving traversing over 20,000 miles and 3,700 testing iterations involving live-fire exercises, before being handed over to the military.
Erdogan further highlighted that the production facility, which Turkish media says spans over 63,000 square meters, will be capable of manufacturing eight Altay tanks and ten Altug armored vehicles each month.
There have been many years in the recent past which Turkey, despite having the second largest army in NATO, was under sanctions by European nations, particularly over its long-running war the the Kurdish PKK.
At the peak of Turkey and Kurdish violence in the 1990s and into the 2000s, and amid criticisms out of Europe, this incentivized Turkey to get more serious about ramping up its domestic defense sector.
“We continue to write a legend with our state-of-the-art air, land, and sea vehicles,” Erdogan said Tuesday. “We are no longer just a state that follows – we are a state that is followed.”
Erdogan alluded precisely to the question of international sanctions, saying the “goal with the Altay tank is to avoid dependency on critical materials.”
“We have reached this stage despite the embargoes, and God willing, we will successfully carry the process forward,” he said. “The obstacles placed in our path may slow us down, may delay us a little, but they will never prevent us from reaching our destination.”
Turkish media has featured some of the new Altay main battle tank’s specs and capabilities as follows:
- Aselsan has integrated multiple critical systems into the Altay. The VOLKAN-II tank fire control system provides precision targeting capabilities. The remote-controlled weapon system enables engagement of targets at extended ranges with accuracy.
- The tank command control information system establishes the tactical network backbone for the Altay platoon and company-level operations. The Internal Communication System ensures seamless crew coordination during combat operations.
- The tank laser warning system alerts crew members to laser-based targeting threats in real-time. The tank driver vision System provides the driver with enhanced situational awareness and visibility in all lighting conditions.
- Soldiers’ Second-Sight Vision Sub-Unit enhances gunner targeting accuracy and extended-range target identification capabilities.
More images of the country’s new line of armor in action…
END
SUDAN/IRAN
somehow Iran is involved in this:
Mass Killings Reported, Many Thousands Trapped, As Key Sudanese City Seized By Militia
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has stormed the North Darfur city of el-Fasher, prompting fears of widespread killings and abuses, hours after ceasefire negotiations in Washington collapsed. There were hopes late last week that the US-sponsored talks could achieve some sort of breakthrough.
However, sources told Middle East Eye that the UAE, which is the RSF’s most significant patron, refused to address the situation in el-Fasher, which has been under siege for over 500 days. On Sunday morning, RSF fighters entered the city, where around 260,000 people have been trapped, seizing an army base and causing the defenses to collapse.
The RSF claims it is in control of the city, describing its capture as a “decisive turning point”, after the paramilitaries had lost significant ground to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in recent months.
So far, the SAF and its allied Joint Forces have not commented on the developments, despite videos emerging that purport to show the RSF detaining and lashing people in and around el-Fasher.
One video, which Middle East Eye was not able to independently verify, appeared to show fighters forcing some detained people to praise RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, before opening fire on them. Others, which MEE has also been unable to verify, seem to depict RSF fighters firing on fleeing civilians.
The RSF’s official media published footage of Abdul-Rahim Dagalo, Hemedti’s brother and second-in-command, addressing his toops from the Sixth Infantry base seized on Sunday.
Contact with people in el-Fasher has become very difficult, with people in the city only able to communicate to the outside through Starlink over recent months. However, MEE was able to reach military sources, local fighters and activists in the city’s pro-democracy Popular Resistance Committee, who said they are still fighting and that el-Fasher’s defenders made a tactical retreat from the Sixth Infantry garrison.
One of the fighters told MEE that the RSF attacked on Sunday with more ferocity than in any previous assault. “Serious fighting has erupted in el-Fasher in the past few days, with all kinds of weapons used – both sides using drones especially,” said the fighter, who is not being identified for security reasons. “However, the RSF’s heavy firing allowed them to enter the city through its eastern side after crushing our front checkpoints, barricades and trenches.”
Another fighter told MEE: “The majority of our forces have withdrawn from the base to the neighbourhood of al-Daraga in the north of the city, where we are in good control at the moment, and the fighting is still ongoing.”
UAE controversy
The storming of el-Fasher came just hours after ceasefire talks in Washington collapsed. The negotiations, which were sponsored by the Trump administration, included the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who alongside the US make up the Quad of states tasked with addressing the two-year Sudan war.
Also in Washington were SAF and RSF delegations, who refused to speak directly to each other. Diplomatic sources told MEE that any discussions about el-Fasher were shut down by the UAE, which supplies the RSF with weapons, funds and mercenaries.
The RSF, which has been accused of genocide elsewhere in Darfur, has surrounded el-Fasher with mines, prevented any aid from reaching its starving civilians and carried out massacres in displacement camps outside the city.
“The Emiratis did not want to describe the situation as a siege and said both sides were equally responsible for crimes in el-Fasher,” one diplomatic source told MEE. Two sources familiar with the talks said the SAF delegation rejected the UAE’s participation in the talks at all, seeing it as a belligerent.
After the talks collapsed, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohi al-Din Salem, who was part of the SAF delegation, said: “If there is to be any dealing with the UAE, it will be as an enemy, not a mediator.”
On Sunday, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on “all countries that are interfering in this war, and that are providing weapons to the parties to the war, to stop doing that”.
Diplomatic sources told MEE that Massad Boulos, Trump’s envoy for Arab and African affairs tasked with leading the negotiations, has been engaged in talks with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the US-sanctioned head of the Sudanese army and government, since September.
“The two sides have put their conditions on the table. Massad has demanded SAF reduces the Islamist influence, stops bringing arms in from Iran and backs the Abraham Accords, as well as other measures like countering Russian and Chinese economic interests,” one of the diplomatic sources said. “On the other hand, Burhan has asked for the US to stop the UAE’s involvement, dismantle the RSF, or at least see the paramilitaries integrated within SAF, and also lift US sanctions from Sudanese officials.”
Sudan’s war began in April 2023 when tensions over plans to fold the RSF into the regular military exploded into a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced 13 million others.
El-Fasher was the only SAF-held area in the vast region of Darfur, and its fall means Sudan has been divided in two, with the military-dominated government ruling the east from Port Sudan and the RSF’s rival administration in Nyala overseeing the west.
After the negotiations in Washington collapsed on Saturday, Boulos attempted to salvage something from the talks by posting photos on X of the Quad delegations and announcing a Joint Operational Committee “to strengthen coordination on urgent priorities”.
However, the next day, as details began to emerge of the assault on el-Fasher, he took to X again, this time calling on the RSF “to protect civilians and prevent further suffering”. He said, “The world is watching el-Fasher and the RSF’s actions with deep concern.”
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia Moves To Year-Round Military Draft, Anticipating Extended Ukraine Fight
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 – 05:20 PM
The Russian government is preparing to expand military conscription in order to ensure steady flow of manpower related to its Ukraine ‘special military operation’.
Russia’s State Duma (lower house) has approved legislation on Tuesday that will shift the country’s military to a year-round conscription model beginning next year, part of the broader push to boost troop numbers related to Ukraine, the regional monitor Moscow Times says.
A key change is that draft boards will be able to carry out medical examinations, psychological evaluations, and other enlistment procedures at any point throughout the year, instead of just during designated draft periods as the policy currently stands.
According to more from the publication:
Supporters of the reform say it is designed to ease the administrative burden on military recruitment offices and better distribute workload across the year.
The bill’s explanatory notes say the new system will improve the quality of conscription and reduce bottlenecks during the bi-annual surge.
All of this strongly points to the Kremlin anticipating that the deadly war will grind on possibly for years more to come. It has already been going for well over three years, since the full-scale invasion of Feb. 2022.
Prior to that, the Donbass civil war pitted pro-Russian autonomous republics against the Ukrainian army and its associated militias in the region. But at this point, Russia has still not officially mobilized society for what meets the (domestic) legal definition “war”, as it’s instead a Special Military Operation (SMO).
What were previously high hopes for President Trump to broker a Ukraine peace deal have faded, and the much talked about Budapest summit with Putin has been put on indefinite hold.
Putin could also be anticipating expanding battlelines based on the Western military alliance pouring more weapons into the conflict – for example long-range missiles from the US and UK.
Recruitment methods in Russia have been less controversial than the desperate tactics often on display in Ukraine…
Moscow might also now be flexing back, showing that it can outlast its enemies in this war of attrition, even as the US and EU impose maximal sanctions, which just happened with the sanctioning of two Russian oil giants.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ANOTHER STRATEGIC CITY POKROVSK FALLS!
ZERO HEDGE
Russian Infantry Operating Inside Pokrovsk – Strategic Ukrainian City’s Fall Imminent
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 10:20 AM
The key logistical hub of Ukraine’s eastern front – Pokrovsk, has been under steady contention for much of the past year, with Russian forces spending slow, methodical efforts pushing westward to flank just south of the city.
For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro. The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.
It’s capture at this point looks imminent, given Ukrainian media is confirming Russian infantry have infiltrated the main logistical district of the city. It’s somewhat sizeable, as it had a prewar population of some 60,000.
“At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media,” according to Kyiv Post on Wednesday.
Russia’s military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.
“Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) sends up to 120 soldiers to the town of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name – Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which indicates its enormous losses in the area,” military expert Vitaly Kiselev told TASS.”
“The enemy still has a strong hold on the city, and has no plans of retreating,” he said. “They still have equipment and manpower here, all the more so that small units of about 15-20 men are being regularly sent there as reinforcements.”
“In fact, groups of 15-20 people arrive there five or six times a day. This shows enormous losses in this area,” the analyst added.
The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines.
Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable – especially given the past months have seen incursions in the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk which began this past summer.
Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that’s not immediately apparent: It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference. While US-brokered ceasefire efforts have stalled, these developments give Moscow huge leverage if there should be a return to the negotiating table.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, October 20-27, 2025
Actors Isabelle Adora Tate (23), Patrick Dela Rosa; jazz drummer Jack DeJohnette; rocker Marcie Free; rappers P.E.A.C.E., Posta Boy (44, C); entertainer Wayne Holtz (35); footballer Bob Maggs; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerOct 29 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (92]
‘9-1-1: Nashville’ actress Isabelle Adora Tate dead at 23, just days after making her debut on hit show. Isabelle Tate had a rare form of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease, her agent said
October 23, 2025
The Nashville native died on Sunday, Fox News Digital confirmed. “Isabelle was full of fire, a fighter, never once making excuses for the fact that she might have a disability relative to others,” her obituary said. “She was also quite musically inclined, often spending hours writing and recording songs with friends and even publishing a few.” Her obituary added: “What she loved the most though was spending time with family and friends, always the life of the party. Her sister was her best friend and her mom was her shining beacon of light.”
Researcher’s Note – Update: Now, new details have surfaced about the cause of death for Tate. According to Tate’s talent agency, The McCray Agency, the actor passed away from “a rare form of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease”: Link
From the Mayo clinic: Most people with Charcot-Marie-Tooth [“a neuromuscular disease that is characterized by a slowly progressive degeneration of the muscles of the foot, lower leg, hand and forearm”] have a normal life expectancy because the disease is not life-threatening. While symptoms can progress and lead to disability, such as difficulty walking or weakness, it does not typically shorten a person’s lifespan. In rare cases, some severe forms can affect breathing muscles and may require medical assistance, which can be life-threatening if not managed.
Former actor and politician Patrick Dela Rosa passes away at 64
October 27, 2025
80’s matinee idol and former politician Patrick Dela Rosa passed away, his family confirmed on Monday, October 27. Joram Dela Rosa Garcia, the actor’s nephew, wrote a message on Facebook to honor the 80’s matinee idol. “Today, I honor not just a celebrated actor and respected public servant, but a man whose kindness, love, and presence shaped my life, my uncle, Patrick dela Rosa.” Joram wrote, paying tribute to his uncle’s legacy both on and off the screen. In April this year, Patrick spoke in an exclusive interview with ABS-CBN News, where he shared how much he was enjoying his new life in California after he and his family decided to start fresh abroad. Patrick was known for his roles in films such as Kristo, Suspek, Ping Lacson: Super Cop, Sisingilin ko ng Dugo, and Ex-Con. As of writing, the family did not yet disclose the details of his passing. He was 64 years old.
Legendary jazz drummer Jack DeJohnette has died at age 83 from congestive heart failure only days after looking good
October 27, 2025
Legendary jazz drummer Jack DeJohnette has died at age 83 from congestive heart failure. His death was confirmed by his record label and came just days after he posted a photo of himself on Instagram with the caption, “Jack looking good”. DeJohnette was an influential musician known for his work with Miles Davis and for his own extensive career as a bandleader and composer.
Beloved Rock Singer Dies at 71
October 25, 2025
Marcie Free, rock singer with Unruly Child and King Kobra, died at 71. Bandmate Jay Schellen called her “a truly singular talent… always an Angel, now you have your wings.” Fans and peers shared tributes, praising her voice and impact in rock music. Marcie Free, formerly known as Mark Free, sang with the bands Unruly Child, King Kobra, and Signal. Her death was confirmed on October 24 by bandmate Jay Schellen.
No cause of death reported.
Two rappers “died suddenly”:
Who are the Freestyle Fellowship members? Everything to know about the hip-hop group as P.E.A.C.E. reportedly passes away
October 27, 2025
P.E.A.C.E. has recently passed away from unknown causes on October 24, 2025. The rapper was associated with Freestyle Fellowship, which also confirmed the latest news.The group members include Myka 9, Aceyalone, and Self Jupiter. Sharing a post on Instagram with a photo of the late artist, known as Mtulazaji Davis, the band paid tribute in the caption. P.E.A.C.E.started his journey by training himself in different instruments. Apart from being active in the musical world, Mtulazaji was a part of the documentary This Is the Life, which focused on the evolution of hip-hop in Los Angeles alongside the popularity of the Good Life Cafe, where Davis and Freestyle Fellowship became famous. Davis’ family members and representatives have yet to comment on the circumstances leading to his death.
No age reported.
Who Was Rapper Posta Boy? BET Freestyle Star Dead At 44 After Reported Battle With Cancer
October 26, 2025
Rapper Posta Boy, who gained nationwide fame through his undefeated run on BET’s 106 & Park “Freestyle Friday”, has reportedly died at 44, according to tributes from fellow artists including Mickey Factz. Factz confirmed the news on social media, revealing that Posta Boy had been battling cancer.
KISS Suffers Another Loss Just Days After Ace Frehley’s Death
October 26, 2025
Just days after the devastating loss of one of their band members, the rockers of KISS are mourning another death. Danny Francis, the long-time head of security for the band, has died. On October 26, KISS guitarist and vocalist Paul Stanley shared the news via the social media site X, formerly Twitter. Francis’ death comes just 10 days after KISS lead guitarist Ace Frehley died. In sharing the news of Francis’ death, Stanley wrote, “Danny Francis, my dear friend, assistant and so much more for 30 years of tours and life has died after a brutal fight with liver cancer.”
No age reported.
Beloved San Antonio artist Wayne Holtz has died unexpectedly
October 26, 2025
Many in San Antonio [Texas] are mourning the loss of local artist and entertainer Wayne Holtz. The beloved creator recently died while on a trip to visit friends on the West Coast, according to a Facebook post from Bitters & Bones on Saturday, October 25. Holtz was 35, according to a birthday post on his Instagram page. Bitters & Bones, a brewery and restaurant in Saranac Lake, New York, stated no details are known at this time regarding Holtz’s passing. The establishment wrote in its post that Holtz’s death has left its staff and community heartbroken, calling him their “shining star”. As he did in San Antonio, Holtz brought light to the music scene at Bitters & Bones. He recently hosted a live music event in September, according to his Instagram.
Bob Maggs, former Ohio State football offensive lineman, dies at age 61
October 27, 2025
Bob Maggs, a former Ohio State offensive lineman who was a two-time All-Big Ten selection in the mid-1980s, has died. He was 61. His obituary said he died unexpectedly on Oct. 23. Maggs was the starting center for the Buckeyes in 1985 and 1986 when he was named to the All-Big Ten first teams. He also received honorable mention All-American recognition in 1985.
No cause of death reported.
Barstool Sports personality Cody ‘Beef’ Franke has died at the age of 31
October 27, 2025
Barstool Sports personality Cody ‘Beef’ Franke has died at the age of 31 after suffering a “sudden medical issue,” according to a statement shared by the company’s golf-centric ForePlay podcast. Franke, a former head pro at Thornberry Creek Country Club in Wisconsin, joined Barstool Sports and ForePlay in January. “We are beyond devastated to announce that our dear friend and beloved Barstool Sports colleague, Cody ‘Beef’ Franke, passed away from a sudden medical issue over the weekend,” the statement reads. “Cody truly loved the game of golf.”
No cause of death reported.
Raiders legend George Atkinson, known for his fierce hits, dies in Georgia at 78
October 27, 2025
George Atkinson, a hard-hitting former Raiders safety who struck fear in the opposition, has died. He was 78. The Raiders said Atkinson’s family informed the team of his death on Monday. The team said he died in Georgia without revealing a cause of death. The Raiders called Atkinson the anchor of the team’s “Soul Patrol” secondary of the 1970s that helped lead the team to its first Super Bowl title. Atkinson remained connected to the organization until his death.
No cause of death reported.
Milwaukee trainers mourn unexpected death of kickboxing champion Jeffrey ‘Duke’ Roufus
October 20, 2025
MILWAUKEE, WI — Students at Roufusport Mixed Martial Arts in Milwaukee are training hard under the guidance of trainer Isaiah Benjamin, who credits Jeffrey “Duke” Roufus with inspiring him to become a trainer. Roufus, a world kickboxing champion, died unexpectedly Friday at the age of 55. “He really became a student of the game, so he’s taught us so many different styles. We can fight so many different ways,” Benjamin said. “My heart sank, and I just fell on my chair. It did. It didn’t feel real. It still doesn’t feel real.” Roufus was known for his intense training and caring nature outside the octagon.
No cause of death reported.
Hockey world mourns the loss of goaltender at the age of 31
October 26, 2025
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
GOD bless POTUS Trump, huge praise I stand with him in this situation with Venezuela, it is high time someone who has the testicular fortitude of Trump stand up to the drug lords, now he is going at
the Venezuelan four some of Maduro, Delcy, Caballo, and Lopez, they best be warned, DO NOT FCUK with Trinidad or Guyana, I am a Trinidadian too, born, we will defend our nation! US will defend us!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 29 |
The Syrian, Indian et al. drug lords of Trinidad, Guyana have poisoned the nations and shipped tons of deadly drugs through the islands across Caribbean sea and killed many in US…thank God for Trump…I love that he is blowing up the boats, blow them to hell up! if you have stones, go pleasure boating now…it is high time! I know it all, these boats do carry drugs to the US…these are drug lords…again, the Syrian drug lords of Trinidad, a list is on Trump’s desk and some of your names are there…I am an American too and I want some of you taken to US soil for trial and it is coming. You have poisoned the islands too long and enriched yourselves. Living is big houses, driving fancy cars on the blood of Caribbean people. You people are animals IMO.
Trump is on the right side of this.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
God bless the new Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago Kamla Persad Bissessar. God bless her for the testicles she has shown, above all the Caribbean leaders. God keep her safe, her family safe! God please fix this issue with no blood shed.
Kamla Persad Bissessar is on the right side of this. Proud of her. Venezuela and Maduro et al. are threatening her. They best be careful. We Trinis can handle ourselves and uncle Sam, led by my daddy Trump is riding shot gun with us on this. He gots our back. I like that! In this matter, I with this Kamla…!!! Chose, who do you bed down with now?
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Lukoil oil selling its international assets after Trump sanctions
(Ozimek/EpochTimes)
Russian Oil Giant Lukoil Selling International Assets After Trump Sanctions
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
Russian oil company Lukoil said it plans to sell its international assets after sanctions imposed by the Trump administration targeted the company and fellow Russian energy giant Rosneft in a bid to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine.
The company announced the decision on Oct. 27, saying that the move was a response to “restrictive measures” imposed by several countries, including the United States. The sanctions—announced by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Oct. 22—froze Lukoil’s assets in the United States and barred U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with the company and its subsidiaries.
“Lukoil informs that owing to introduction of restrictive measures against the Company and its subsidiaries by some states the Company announces its intention to sell its international assets,” the oil giant said in a statement.
The company stated that it had begun “consideration of bids from potential purchasers” and would seek an extension of its OFAC “wind-down license” if it needs more time beyond the Nov. 21 grace period deadline to complete transactions.
‘Tremendous Sanctions’
The sanctions are part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine and agree to a cease-fire. They represent the first major round of economic penalties imposed on Moscow since Trump’s return to the White House for a second term.
“I just felt it was time,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Oct. 22 while hosting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “These are tremendous sanctions. We hope they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.”
The measures cover Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than half of Russia’s crude oil exports, and nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. They also open the door to secondary sanctions on foreign banks and companies that continue doing business with the blacklisted companies, effectively cutting off access to the U.S. financial system for violators.
“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who oversees OFAC, said in an Oct. 22 statement. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war.”
Lukoil’s international holdings are extensive, spanning 11 countries, including oil refineries in Bulgaria, Romania, and the Netherlands and stakes in upstream projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and the Republic of the Congo.
The sanctions are a sharp turn from Trump’s earlier strategy of restraint while pursuing diplomatic channels to end the war. The president canceled a planned summit with Putin in late October, saying that talks had become “a waste of time.” His administration has also pressed countries such as India and China to curb Russian oil imports and warned of penalties for noncompliance.
The UK also imposed sanctions on Lukoil on Oct. 15, with British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper citing the need to pressure Russian leadership into a cease-fire.
“At this critical moment for Ukraine, Europe is stepping up,” Cooper said in a statement.
“Together, the UK and our allies are piling the pressure on Putin—going after his oil, gas and shadow fleet—and we will not relent until he abandons his failed war of conquest and gets serious about peace.”
The UK move targeted Lukoil, Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers, subjecting them to an asset freeze, transport restrictions, and a ban on UK trust services, meaning that UK companies can no longer help them set up or manage offshore accounts or companies.
Moscow Condemns ‘Unfriendly Act’
At the Kremlin, Putin condemned the U.S. sanctions as an “unfriendly act,” accusing Washington of undermining recently improving relations between the two countries.
“It is an obvious thing and it does not strengthen Russia–U.S. relations that have just started recovering,” he said on Oct. 23, state news agency TASS reported. “Certainly, the U.S. administration harms Russia–U.S. relations by such actions.”
The measures are expected to squeeze Russia’s finances at a crucial time. Oil and gas revenues account for roughly one-third of Moscow’s federal budget, funding both military spending and domestic subsidies that help cushion the economic blow of the war.
Putin said restrictions on Russian oil exports could push global energy prices higher, noting that, unlike Russia, the United States consumes more oil than it sells. He said the sanctions “will not have a significant impact” on Russia’s economy.
end
Western sanctions keeping oil above $60.00
(zerohedge)
WTI Selloff Stalls After Large Inventory Draws; US Crude Production Hit A New Record High
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 10:52 AM
Oil prices held steady after a three-day drop as investors assessed the impact of Western sanctions against leading Russian crude producers, alongside a mixed industry estimate of US inventory changes.
President Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new sanctions against Moscow to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO.
Indian state-owned refiners are considering whether they can continue to take some discounted Russian oil after the measures were imposed, though some processors will pause purchases for now.
On Tuesday, Indian Oil Corp. said it is “absolutely not going to discontinue” purchases of Russian crude as long as it complies with international sanctions.
“The market is now trying to assess the longer-term impact of the additional sanctions, which will be determined by the quantity of actual barrels removed from supply,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.
Overnight prices stabilized after API showed across the board big inventory draws…
API
- Crude -4.0mm
- Cushing
- Gasoline -6.35mm
- Distillates -4.36mm
DOE
- Crude -6.86mm (-900k exp) – biggest draw in 7 weeks
- Cushing +1.334mm
- Gasoline -5.94mm – biggest draw since Oct 2024
- Distillates -3.36mm
The official inventory data confirmed the API’s report with large drawdowns in inventories across crude and the products…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude production rose to a new record high last week
Source: Bloomberg
WTI rallied modestly on the big crude draw
Source: Bloomberg
Oil is on track to notch a third monthly decline, with prices dragged lower by expectations of a global surplus as OPEC+ raises production. Key alliance nations are set to hold discussions this weekend, and may sign off on another supply increase. Traders are also tracking progress toward a US-China trade deal, with Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping due to meet on Thursday.
END
The Only Asset Down On The Year: Oil
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 11:20 AM
Oil stocks seem to be the only cheap equities on the market, but does that mean they are going higher? Join ZeroHedge for an actionable deep dive into everything affecting the oil market, moderated by former energy trader and macro-podcaster Erik Townsend.
Wednesday night at 7 pm ET, we bring together three pre-eminent voices in global energy:
- Arjun Murti (Partner, Veriten): With over 30 years on Wall Street, a former Partner and Co-Director of Americas Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and current Director at ConocoPhillips, Murti remains at the frontline of energy macro and policy.
- Paul Sankey (Founder, Sankey Research): A former lead U.S. oil & refining analyst at Deutsche Bank, Sankey has earned multiple Institutional Investor rankings and spent his career dissecting global oil equities, refining cycles and capital-markets dynamics.
- Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence): With more than 25 years in futures and commodity markets, McGlone drives commodity-market strategy at Bloomberg and offers deep insight into supply, demand and macro-commodity linkages.
They’ll each present differing but grounded views on key questions facing the market:
1. How are geopolitical events likely to affect prices?
2. Are technicals looking bullish or bearish?
3. Has the long-term investment thesis changed under the Trump era with Democrats notably quiet on the Green Transition which was supposed to arrive by 2030?
Details:
Date & Time: Tonight at 7 pm ET
Live Platforms: ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube, Rumble
This discussion brings together the sharpest energy-market minds in the world under one roof. Stay tuned for our live ZeroHedge Debate.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Bank of Canada delivers second consecutive cut to key interest rate, lowering it to 2.25%
John MacFarlane, Jeff Lagerquist and Leah Golob
Updated Wed, October 29, 2025 at 10:09 a.m. EDT 1 min read
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a move largely expected as signs of economic weakness overshadowed recent positive employment data and a rise in inflation.
The BoC says the impacts of U.S. tariffs are “more evident” even as the situation remains uncertain, and that the trade conflict “is fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy.”
Should inflation and the economy follow its forecasts, the BoC’s release about the decision says, “Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to two per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.”
The decision came despite inflation data last week showing a 0.5-percentage-point jump in September from the month before, and a surprise gain of 60,400 jobs in September.
The BoC also delivered its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which returns to a single base-case economic forecast. Inflation is expected to hold at around 2 per cent, while GDP growth is projected to gradually increase over the rest of this year and average 1.4 per cent.
“However, U.S. tariffs are anticipated to permanently reduce the level of Canadian GDP” versus previous forecasts from January, the report notes.
In September, the BoC cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points, the first cut since March, noting the weak job market and few signs of inflation accelerating.
Follow Yahoo Finance Canada’s live blog for news, updates and analysis of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement below.
END
CANADA
(MACFARLANE/TD)
Taxes, red tape are ‘silent killer’ of Canada’s competitiveness, TD warns
Economists say Ottawa’s economic agenda overlooks the need for urgent tax and regulatory reforms
John MacFarlane · Senior Reporter
Tue, October 28, 2025 at 12:58 p.m. EDT 3 min read
Excessive taxes and red tape are “the silent killer of competitiveness” in Canada but have been overlooked in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s economic agenda, TD Bank’s economists argue in a new report.
Without a serious overhaul of its tax and regulatory system, chief economist Beata Caranci and managing director Francis Fong write, Canada will continue to trail its peers in productivity and growth, in spite of recently announced “bold initiatives” in housing, infrastructure and energy.
The economists write that global competitiveness must be the “north star” of any reform, urging Ottawa to treat business investment “with the same urgency it treats other crises.”
Investment per worker in Canada ranks near the bottom of OECD countries, the TD report notes, and the gap on that metric with the U.S. “has widened out significantly since 2010.” This, Caranci and Fong say, is the main contributor to the productivity “emergency” declared last year by Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers. On another OECD measure of regulatory stringency, Canada ranks 26th out of 38 countries — the economists point to a Transport Canada/KPMG study that found the number of industrial regulations has risen 36.6 per cent since 2006 and now tops 305,000.
TD argues the root of the problem is decades of ineffectual tax reform. The last major overhaul was the Carter Commission — which took place in the 1960s and “was not done with the lens of enhancing Canada’s competitiveness.” Minor efforts in the late 1990s also “did not move the needle on competitiveness and investment,” the report says.
The competitiveness problem isn’t only corporate. TD warns that Canada’s high personal tax rates make it harder to attract and retain skilled workers. While inequality has eased, the share of taxes paid by top earners has grown — raising the question of how Canada can lure talent when the financial return is higher abroad. A major issue, the economists argue, is that tax reform is “inherently a politically divisive process,” with taxes going up for some and down for others. “No government wants to pull on that thread,” they observed.
This is a turning point in Canada’s history.TD economists Beata Caranci and Francis Fong
But TD says reversing the slide in productivity will mean a fundamental shift in how Canada approaches both taxation and regulation. The report calls for broadening the tax base while lowering statutory rates and cutting back on the tangle of credits and carve-outs that have made compliance expensive and opaque.
On regulation, TD urges governments to focus reviews only on rules that “are shown to be binding constraints on costs,” and to eliminate exemptions that let departments avoid scrutiny. The federal one-for-one rule, introduced a decade ago, has achieved “middling-to-no success,” the report says, because it counts the removal of obsolete rules as progress, even when those regulations no longer cost firms time or money.
END
JAMAICA
/Jamaica Devastated By Menacing Hurricane Melissa: Widespread Power Outages, Internet Blackout, & Severe Infrastructure Damage
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Hurricane Melissa pummeled southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, before making landfall in Cuba early Wednesday as an “extremely dangerous” Category 3 hurricane.
Damage assessment in Jamaica will begin today, and those with Starlink connectivity on the battered island will be broadcasting the devastating aftermath of a storm that has already caused widespread electricity and internet outages, mainly in the western and central regions.
“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness stated, adding, “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”
Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz told Sky News that eastern regions, including Kingston, were largely spared, but reports from other areas, particularly the western part of the island nation, were entirely devastated by sustained winds of 185 mph, which downed power and telecom lines.
“We’re hoping to be able to do an assessment tomorrow, but as of right now, the reports that are coming in are catastrophic,” Vaz said in an interview. “Not very much survives a Category 5 hurricane, in terms of infrastructure.”
Footage on social media shows extensive damage. Those with holiday plans to visit Jamaican resorts may want to check on the status of the resort.
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4
Vaz noted that Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston may reopen for emergency flights on Thursday, while Sangster International in Montego Bay suffered severe damage. Airports are central to Jamaica’s tourism-driven economy, and reports say some Americans are trapped on the island.
The question now is whether the $150 million catastrophe bond (cat bond) that the Government of Jamaica renewed last year will be triggered.
end
VENEZUELA/USA
they should pick on someone their own size: USA will get quite angry on this!
(zerohedge)
Venezuela Takes Action Against Trinidad & Tobago Over Hosting US Warship
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 12:00 PM
Venezuela considers Trinidad and Tobago’s cooperation with the US military as the Trump White House prepares for possible military action against the Caracas government to be a hostile act.
This after on Sunday the USS Gravely, which is outfitted with guided missiles, arrived in Trinidad to conduct joint exercises with Trinidad’s navy, but which was seen as a deep provocation by Caracas.
For starters, Venezuela’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez said that key energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago have been effectively canceled.
“Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela’s minister of hydrocarbons, said she would ask President Nicolas Maduro to withdraw from a 2015 agreement that enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations,” AP detailed. After this, President Maduro declared, “I have approved the measure.”
The USS Gravely is actually one of the very US naval vessels which has been involved in the campaign to destroy alleged drug trafficking speedboats off the Venezuelan coast.
“The prime minister of Trinidad has decided to join the war mongering agenda of the United States,” Vice President Rodriguez said on national television Monday.
By Tuesday, Venezuela declared Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar to be persona non grata amid the escalating tensions.
Venezuela’s National Assembly quickly voted to impose the measure against Persad-Bissessar, formally barring her from entering the country.
But interestingly Persad-Bissessar hit back, telling AFP, “Why would they think I would want to go to Venezuela?”
A mere seven miles of ocean lies between Trinidad and Venezuela at their closest point, but the Trinidad government is among the few Caribbean leaders to be openly supporting the major US military campaign in the region.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1622 DOWN 0.0034 PTS OR 34 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS MIXED
USA/ YEN 152.41 UP 0.671 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3209 DOWN .0026 OR 26 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3947 UP 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 28.11 PTS OR 0.70%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 87.56 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.83%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 87,56 PTS OR 0.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28,11 POINTS OR 0.70%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.83 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1008.47 PTS OR 2.17%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4019.20
silver:$48.36
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 98.77 UP 32 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.994% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.655% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.051 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.133 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.388 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.622 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1639 DOWN 0.0018 OR 18 basis points
USA/Japan: 151.97 UP 0.234 OR YEN IS DOWN 23 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.391 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.1659 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0019 OR 19 BASIS pts to 1.3927
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0992 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0971
TURKISH LIRA: 41.95 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.655 UP 1 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.051 DOWN 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.992% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.560 UP 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.492 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4007.75
SILVER AT 10;00: 48.14
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 59.40 PTS OR 0.61%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 154.42 pts or 0.64%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 15.70 pts or 0.59%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 63.10 pts or 0.35%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 114.00 or 0.26%
WTI Oil price 60.43 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 64.71 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.57 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 52/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.102 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.683 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1579 DOWN 0.0077 OR 77 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3158 DOWN .01210 OR 121 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.395 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1700 DOWN 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.646 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.047 DOWN 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.98 UP 1.250 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3950 UP 0.0010 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 10 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 60,48
Brent OIL: 64.78
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 4.069
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 PTS to 4.605%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.596 UP 10 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.158 UP 12 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.738 UP 11 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.09 UP 65 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.95 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.000 DOWN 0 AND 75/100 roubles //
GOLD $3931.30 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 47.53 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 72.72 OR 0.15%
NASDAQ 100 UP 107.69 PTS OR 0.41%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.26 UP 0.84 PTS OR 5.12%
GLD: $ 363.00 DOWN 1.38 PTS OR 0.382%
SLV/ $43.23 UP 0.53 PTS OR OR 1.24%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 294.56 PTS OR 0.67%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘
Stocks, Bonds And Bitcoin Battered After Powell Trapdoors Markets, Says December Cut Not Set
FOMC:
Fed Cuts 25bps, Ends QT As Expected; Two FOMC Officials Dissent
025 – 02:03 PM
In our preview we said that the Fed would cut 25bps and end QT… and that’s precisely what happened.
* * *
First, a quick preview of how we got here:
Since the last FOMC meeting (on Sept 17th), Gold has dramatically outperformed across asset-classes (even with its recent plunge) followed by US equities. Oil prices have tumbled the most while the dollar and bonds have risen in value. Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the last FOMC meeting, having collapsed after reaching record highs intramonth…
The market has grown more dovish since the last Fed meeting, now fully pricing in a 25bps cut today (and is almost certain that December will see another 25bps cut)…
More notably, rate-cut expectations have barely changed since the last FOMC with 46bps of cuts priced in for 2025 and 69bps more priced in for 2026…
Finally, before we get to the meat and potatoes of today’s statement, we note that Goldman Sachs models show monetary policy at its most dovish in years…
And bear in mind that financial conditions have never been ‘easier’…
So as we detailed in the FOMC preview, the two main questions for traders today is:
1) will the statement/presser provide support for the market’s current dovish future take (given the market’s anticipation of a 25bps cut, Goldman notes that it would likely be a high bar for the FOMC to change its plan on the basis of alternative data, and in any case the data have not given them any reason to), and,
2) will Powell officially announce the end of QT, as we discussed extensively in recent weeks (here and here), as a result of deteriorating conditions in money markets, the Fed is expected to announce changes to its balance sheet program. Fed Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves will likely hit an ample level within a couple of months, although as we highlighted, the combination of reserves and reverse repos is now the lowest it has been since 2020 resulting in a creeping increase in the SOFR rate.
Meanwhile, usage of the Fedʼs repo facility has picked up, suggesting that some participants may be growing tighter on cash.
With that in mind, here are the key headlines from the FOMC Statement:
- The FOMC cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, as expected.
- The vote was 10-2, with two opposing dissenters (see below).
- The Fed announced that QT (aka the run-off of Treasury securities from the Fed’s balance sheet currently capped at $5 billion per month) would conclude on December 1, as also became consensus in recent days as a result of turmoil in funding markets.
- There were twp dissenting votes, one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran in favor of a 50-bps cut, and one from Jeffrey Schmid, who voted for no rate cut.
- The Fed statement maintains description of the labor market, noting that “job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August,” adding “more recent indicators are consistent with these developments” and “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”
Here is a statement redline…
… where the key highlights are the following:
- Replacing that economic activity has “moderated” with “expanding at a moderate pace”, which is actually a bullish revision.
- Noting that while job gains have slowed “this year“, the unemployment rate has edged up but “remained” low and added that “through August, more recent indicators are consistent with these developments.”
- On inflation, the Fed added that inflation has moved up “since earlier this year” and remains somewhat elevated.
- On QT, the Fed said that the Committee “decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1“, which is a bit later than some had expected, as November had emerged as the target month for QT ending.
In its implementation note, the Fed clarified the details of how QT will end:
“Effective October 30, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
- Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
- Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
- Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.75 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
- Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in October and November that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. Beginning on December 1, roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities.
- Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in October and November that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding. Beginning on December 1, reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.
- Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.”
Commenting on the statement, BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey was surprised by the “hawkish” dissent and adds that it “may change our opinion about the pace of cuts going forward, but there’s still little in the data to make us shift our opinion about the shape of the yield curve. There’s little in the statement or with the end of QT that’s likely to change the shape of the yield curve.”
Jersey continues: “The timing of the decision was a coin flip, and the committee erred on the side of caution. Runoff will continue in November, before the Fed enters ‘net neutral’ on December 1. MBS runoff will continue at current pace and be used to fund T-bill purchases, while Coupon Treasury runoff will be reinvested in full at auction.”
Meanwhile, former Fed vice-chair who currently works at Pimco noted that he expects “to see more of this in the remainder of Powell’s term for sure. If you just looked at the dots, you have a pretty divided committee in terms of the case for preemptive cuts from here, with inflation at 3%.”
Peter Boockvar at the Boock report goes one further and writes that while there was no real surprise, “the Schmid dissent makes me more confident that Jay Powell is going to push back on a December cut being the lay up the markets think it is.”
And while Schmid dissent was a bit of a surprise, the bulk of the statement was largely in line with expectations, and as a result stocks have barely budged…
.. while 10Y yields and the dollar are fractionally higher ahead of Powell’s presser which begins at 2:30pm.
WRAP UP;
Meta Tumbles, Microsoft Slides, Alphabet Soars After Mag 7 Earnings Deluge
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 04:37 PM
With the Fed decision in the history books, attention turned to the barrage of Mag 7 earnings after the close today, which as previewed could move dramatically based on what they reported. And at exactly 4:05pm we got the releases which were 1 out of 3, with META and MSFT sliding, and GOOGL jumping.
Here are the details, starting with today’s winner Alphabet, which reported quarterly sales that beat analysts’ estimates, buoyed by the performance of its cloud unit, which is growing as artificial intelligence startups seek Google’s support and computing
- Revenue ex-TAC $87.47 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $85.11 billion (Revenue $102.35 billion, +16% y/y, also beat estimate $99.85 billion)
- Google Services revenue $87.05 billion, +14% y/y,beating estimate $84.67 billion
- Google advertising revenue $74.18 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimate $72.46 billion
- Google Search & Other Revenue $56.57 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $54.99 billion
- YouTube ads revenue $10.26 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $10.03 billion
- Google Network Revenue $7.35 billion, -2.6% y/y, missing estimate $7.39 billion
- Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $12.87 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $12.35 billion
- Google Cloud revenue $15.16 billion, +34% y/y, beating estimate $14.75 billion
- Other Bets revenue $344 million, -11% y/y, estimate $429.4 million
- EPS $2.87 vs. $2.12 y/y, beating estimate $2.26
Alphabet’s cloud division stood out, delivering revenue of $15.16 billion versus the $14.75 billion estimate, underscoring ongoing enterprise demand for AI workloads on Vertex. The company also reported a hefty $155 billion backlog in Google Cloud, signaling sustained momentum into next year.
Turning to costs and expenses:
- Total TAC $14.88 billion, +8.4% y/y, above the estimate $14.84 billion
- Operating income $31.23 billion, +9.5% y/y, below estimate $32.11 billion
- Google Services operating income $33.53 billion, +8.7% y/y, below estimate $33.59 billion
- Google Cloud operating income $3.59 billion, +85% y/y, above estimates $3.01 billion
- Other Bets operating loss $1.43 billion vs. loss $1.12 billion y/y, below estimate loss $1.21 billion
- Alphabet-level activities operating loss $4.47 billion vs. loss $3.17 billion y/y, above estimate loss $3.53 billion
- Operating margin 31% vs. 32% y/y, missing estimate 32.2%
Perhaps the most important two numbers had to do with CapEx, first historical which was above estimates:
- Capital expenditure $23.95 billion, +83% y/y, beating estimate $22.38 billion
Alphabet also posted an impressive FY capex guide of $91 billion to $93 billion, up from around $85 billion previously, and smashing estimates of $84.04 billion, reflecting continued spending on AI data centers and custom chips. Gemini, Google’s flagship AI model, is increasingly being woven across search, Android, and YouTube, helping to offset rising infrastructure costs.
The company also announced that Google Cloud ended the quarter with $155B in backlog, unveiled that it haddDouble-digit growth across every major business, and that its Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users.
As Bloomberg notes, Alphabet’s third-quarter results reinforced the AI investment boom that has powered megacap tech stocks and broader equity benchmarks to record highs. What’s more, Alphabet’s confident guidance and ramped-up capex suggest the AI spending cycle remains in full swing — potentially adding fresh fuel to the trade that continues to define this bull market.
The results were strong enough to push the strong sharply higher after hours, rising as much as 7.5%, to a new record high.
That was the good news. The other two Mag 7s were not so good.
The next giga tech was Meta which reported Q3 earnings that were good, but not good enough for the market which was disappointed by the huge earnings charge, and its shares tumbled after hours. Here is the breakdown:
- Revenue $51.24 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $49.59 billion
- Advertising rev. $50.08 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $48.59 billion
- Family of Apps revenue $50.77 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $49.04 billion
- Reality Labs revenue $470 million, +74% y/y, beating estimate $317 million
- Other revenue $690 million, +59% y/y, beating estimate $597.4 million
- Operating income was $20.54 billion, up 18% y/y
- Operating margin 40% vs. 43% y/y
Despite the revenue beat, EPS was a big miss, printing at just $1.05 below the $6.76 estimate, and the result of a $15.93 billion charge on a tax bill.
Some other details from the report:
- Family of Apps operating income $24.97 billion, +15% y/y, estimate $24.79 billion
- Reality Labs operating loss $4.43 billion vs. loss $4.43 billion y/y, estimate loss $5.16 billion
- Ad impressions +14% vs. +7% y/y, estimate +10.8%
- Average price per ad +10% vs. +11% y/y, estimate +10.5%
Average Family service users per day 3.54 billion, +7.6% y/y, estimate 3.48 billion
Looking ahead, Meta sees total expenses between $116 billion to $118 billion, an increase on the low end after it previously saw $114 billion to $118 billion, and above the estimate $115.63 billion
It also sees capital expenditure $70 billion to $72 billion, up from a range of $66 billion to $72 billion previously and above the estimate $69.3 billion.
The company says its Q4 revenue growth will be “partially offset by lower year-over-year Reality Labs revenue in the fourth quarter.” That may mean fewer headsets and glasses than anticipated at Christmastime.
And while the results were generally in line, taking a $16 billion profit hit might just be too much for investors to ignore. And certainly the market was not delighted, sending META shares tumbling sharply lower after the close.
* * *
The last Mag7 to report today was Microsoft, which also disappointed judging by the sharp drop in its price after hours.
Microsoft reported expansion in its Azure cloud computing unit that failed to impress investors who have grown optimistic about the business. While the Azure cloud-computing unit posted a 39% revenue gain in the quarter when adjusting for currency fluctuations, beating the Wall Street estimate of 37%, investor expectations for Microsoft were very high heading into earnings, with some buyside bogeys as high as the low 40s.
Here is what it reported for Q3:
- Revenue $77.67 billion, beating estimate $75.55 billion
- Microsoft Cloud revenue $49.1 billion, beating estimate $48.6 billion
- Intelligent Cloud revenue $30.9 billion, beating estimate $30.18 billion
- Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +39%, beating estimate +37.1%
- Productivity and Business Processes revenue $33.02 billion, beating estimate $32.29 billion
- More Personal Computing revenue $13.76 billion, beating estimate $12.88 billion
- EPS $3.72, beating est. of $3.67
- Operating income $37.96 billion, beating estimates of $35.1 billion
- Capital expenditure $19.39 billion, beating estimate $23.04 billion
- Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases $34.9 billion, above estimate $30.06 billion
- Revenue at constant currency +17%, beating estimate +13.4%
Of concern to investors is that Microsoft reported a steeper climb in spending than Wall Street expected, fueling anxieties about the high costs of providing AI infrastructure. First-quarter capital expenditures including leases, an indication of data center spending, came in at $34.9 billion, up from $24 billion in the preceding quarter.
Microsoft continues “to increase our investments in AI across both capital and talent to meet the massive opportunity ahead,” Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said in a statement.
The world’s largest software maker has seen rapid growth in its cloud computing business, thanks largely to a landmark partnership with leading artificial intelligence startup OpenAI. On Tuesday, the two companies revised their agreement, giving Microsoft access to OpenAI technology and its AI inference business for years to come. The updated pact was widely applauded on Wall Street.
And while the kneejerk stock reaction may well be a headfake as MSFT tends to provide forward-looking guidance on the call and it may once again surprise positively there, for now, however, the stock is down after the close if off the lows.
AND THE COMPLETE WRAP UP
Dollar and yields rally as Powell pushes back against December rate cut – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 04:20 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Fed cuts by 25bps as expected, Schmid votes for unchanged, Miran votes for 50bps cut; Chair Powell was hawkish, Dec cut far from assured; Fed ends QT from December; BoC cuts rates as expected, hints easing cycle is over; Japan’s PM told Trump that banning LNG imports from Russia will be difficult; Trump says trade deal reached with South Korea; EIA crude stocks post bigger draw than expected; China’s CFCO purchases 190k tonnes; Hot Australian CPI.
- COMING UP: Data: Spanish Flash HICP (Oct), German Unemployment (Sep), Flash GDP (Q3), Prelim. CPI (Oct), EZ Final Consumer Confidence (Oct), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), Unemployment Rate (Sep). Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims. Events: BoJ & ECB Policy Announcements; US President Trump and Chinese President Xi to meet. Speakers: BoJ Governor Ueda; ECB President Lagarde; Fed’s Logan and Bowman. Supply: Italy. Earnings: Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Merck, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, Shell, Kion, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, Puma, ING.
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MARKET WRAP
US indices, Treasuries, and Gold saw notable selling, while the Dollar soared in the wake of a very hawkish Powell at the Fed press conference. In the decision beforehand, it cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 3.75-4%, albeit in a 10-2 decision. Governor Miran dissented for a 50bps reduction, as he said he would, while Schmid opted to leave rates unchanged. It also announced it will end the balance sheet contraction from December 1st; two-way action was seen in markets. However, Powell started his presser by noting there are strongly differing views on how to proceed in December, with another cut far from assured. He added that today’s cut was another risk management move, but going ahead, it is different. Continuing to add to the hawkish rhetoric, the Chair noted there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle [regarding another cut]. As such, a hawkish reaction was seen with T-Notes tumbling, ES falling beneath 6.9k, and spot gold testing USD 3.9k/oz to the downside. The Dollar surged to the detriment of G10 peers, with CHF and GBP the laggards, as DXY rose to highs of 99.356 from earlier lows of 98.62. Money markets are now pricing in c. 64% chance of a 25bps rate cut, vs. 92% in the immediate aftermath of the rate decision. The crude complex was firmer and boosted after larger-than-expected EIA draws, and was largely unmoved after hawkish Powell. There was a deluge of earnings, and NVDA (+3.1%) strength propped up Tech, as it topped USD 5tln market cap for the first time, but breadth was very narrow with the equal-weighted S&P 500 lower by ~1.1%. Ahead, there are five Mag-7 earnings before Friday, with lots of focus on the Trump/Xi meeting overnight.
North America
FED: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 3.75-4.00%, albeit in a 10-2 vote. On the dovish end of the spectrum, Governor Miran voted for a 50bps reduction, as he had touted prior to the meeting, while Schmid voted to leave rates unchanged. Within the statement, given the US Government shutdown and regarding the outlook, it notes that available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace (prev. recent indicators suggest growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year). Meanwhile, on the employment side of the mandate, the statement judges that downside risks to employment have risen in recent months, while on inflation it continues to note that it has moved up since earlier in the year, and maintains that inflation “remains somewhat elevated”. The Fed also announced changes to its balance sheet from December 1st. The Fed will reinvest all maturing holdings of Treasury securities, and it will reinvest all the payments from mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, allowing the Fed’s holdings of MBS to continue to roll off the balance sheet. The Fed has previously signalled it wants a Treasury-only balance sheet, given housing market conditions.
FED CHAIR POWELL: Powell was hawkish in the press conference, with the main takeaway being that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, and there are differing views on the Committee regarding a December rate cut. However, there was considerable support for today’s decision, calling it another risk management move, but going ahead, it is a different story. He also warned that, amid a lack of official government data, “driving in the fog, you could slow down”. He was also asked about other reasons why the Fed could enter a pause, noting the Fed has already moved 150bps from peaks, and is currently in the area where many estimates of the neutral rate are, hence some think it is time to take a step back. He also said that there is a growing chorus of feeling that maybe they should wait a cycle [to cut again]. Powell still sees policy as modestly restrictive. He noted CPI was a little softer than expected, while inflation away from tariffs is not far from the 2% goal, suggesting it may be 0.5-0.6% above target. Note, we will not see the official PCE report on Friday for September, but Powell estimates headline PCE and Core PCE both rose 2.8% (prev. headline 2.7%, core 2.9%). The Chair does not see weakness in the job market accelerating, but highlighted that they haven’t seen the September payroll report due to the government shutdown, but state-level claims data is not suggesting a significant deterioration. On the balance sheet, the Fed said the December 1st date for ending the balance sheet contraction gives the market a little time to adapt, and that it is clear they are only slightly above an ample level of reserves. Powell also noted they do want to move the balance sheet to shorter-duration, but have not decided on an endpoint, and they want the balance sheet duration to fall very gradually.
US PENDING HOME SALES: Pending home sales for September showed no change M/M, vs. an anticipated rise of 1% and against last months’ 4.2% rise. At the regional level, they were mixed, with increases in the Northeast and South offset by declines in the Midwest and West. In the data set, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that “Contract signings matched the second-strongest pace of the year. However, signings have yet to fully reach the level needed for a healthy market despite mortgage rates reaching a one-year low.” Yun further added that “a record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market.”
BOC: The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, as expected, taking rates to 2.25%, matching the bottom end of the BoC’s neutral rate estimate. The BoC maintained the view of their neutral rate despite the rate cut, suggesting that any further rate cuts would be accommodative. The BoC described current interest rates as “about the right level”, implying there is little room left for more easing, or at least the BoC will observe effects of recent easing before acting again, depending on how the economy evolves. The statement did say that if the outlook changes, they are prepared to respond. It also noted that the structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs, noting this limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation, suggesting there is not much more monetary policy can do. Both these additions to the statement suggest a clear holding bias from the BoC. Within the MPR, the BoC returned to a base case scenario. It sees Q4 25 growth (Y/Y) at 0.5%, down from the 1.9% seen in the January MPR (before the BoC switched to a scenario-based approach), and compares to the July MPR of 0.7%. Headline CPI in Q4 25 is seen at 2.0% (down from 2.4% in January, up from 1.9% in July). Core CPI is seen at 2.9% (up from 2.1% in January and down from 3.1% in July). Analysts at RBC note that their base case assumes no further rate reductions, and they expect a ramp-up in fiscal stimulus to do a lot of the heavy lifting in the policy response to address tariff-related issues in the economy.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z5) SETTLED 18 TICKS LOWER AT 112-29
T-notes bear flatten after Powell pushes back on December rate cut. At settlement, 2-year +11.6bps at 3.610%, 3-year +10.8bps at 3.609%, 5-year +10.4bps at 3.717%, 7-year +10.0bps at 3.884%, 10-year +8.9bps at 4.072%, 20-year +6.8bps at 4.591%, 30-year +6.3bps at 4.610%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -12.4bps at 2.899%, 3-year BEI -1.5bps at 2.534%, 5-year BEI +0.3bps at 2.315%, 10-year BEI +0.8bps at 2.281%, 30-year BEI +0.6bps at 2.231%.
THE DAY: T-notes traded sideways overnight and throughout the start of the US session, before selling off ahead of the FOMC. The statement itself was ultimately little changed, cutting rates by 25bps as expected, and announcing an end to the balance sheet drawdown from December 1st. However, Fed Chair Powell was hawkish in the press conference. Within the opening statement, he pushed back on expectations for a December rate cut, noting there are differing views on the committee on how to proceed ahead, and another cut is far from assured. He even suggested later in the Q&A that there is a growing chorus of feeling to maybe wait another cycle before resuming rate cuts. T-notes sold off across the curve, predominantly in the short-end as rate cut expectations were pared. Money markets are only pricing in a 65% probability of a December rate cut now, down from a 98% probability previously.
- SUPPLY
Notes
- Sold USD 30bln of 2-year FRNs at a high discount margin of 0.190%.
Bills
- US to sell USD 95bln of 8-week bills and USD 110bln of 4-week bills on October 30th; all to settle on November 4th
- US sold 17-week bills at a high rate of 3.705%, B/C 2.94x
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 17bps (prev. 23bps), January 27bps (prev. 33bps), March 36bps (prev. 42bps). Prev = pre-Fed, adjusted for today’s rate cut.
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 19.5bln (prev. 14.1bln) across 15 counterparties (prev. 13)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 10.2bln (prev. 7.7bln)
- EFFR at 4.12% (prev. 4.12%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. 88bln) on October 28th.
- SOFR at 4.31% (prev. 4.27%), volumes at USD 3.067tln (prev. 3.019tln) on October 28th. Remains above the top-end of the Fed Funds target range.
CRUDE
WTI (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.33 HIGHER AT USD 60.48/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.52 HIGHER AT USD 64.92/BBL
The crude complex was firmer and boosted after larger-than-expected EIA draws. In the European morning, WTI and Brent edged to troughs of USD 59.70/bbl and USD 63.92/bbl, respectively, as Japanese PM Takaichi told US President Trump that banning LNG imports from Russia will be difficult. In wake of that, benchmarks ground higher amid risk-on sentiment, largely deriving from continued NVDA strength, with the complex seeing a further fillip higher on bullish EIA metrics, Crude saw a chunky draw of 6.858mln (exp. -0.211mln), Distillates -3.362mln (exp. -1.735mln), and Gasoline -5.941mln (exp. -1.903mln), leaving the weekly production rising 15k W/W – this saw WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 61.02/bbl and USD 65.37/bbl. After the FOMC, which saw the Fed cut by 25bps as expected, but alongside a somewhat unexpected hawkish dissent (Schmid wanted unchanged rates) and a hawkish Chair Powell (pushed back against a clear path for Dec cut), oil saw a muted reaction.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.00% at 6,891, NDX +0.41% at 26,120, DJI -0.16% at 47,632, RUT -0.87% at 2,485
SECTORS: Real Estate -2.66%, Consumer Staples -2.00%, Materials -1.79%, Financials -1.70%, Health -0.97%, Consumer Discretionary -0.50%, Utilities -0.02%, Industrials +0.25%, Energy +0.80%, Communication Services +1.04%, Technology +1.05%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.02% at 5,705, Dax 40 -0.64% at 24,123, FTSE 100 +0.61% at 9,756, CAC 40 -0.19% at 8,201, FTSE MIB +0.26% at 43,243, IBEX 35 +0.39% at 16,150, PSI +0.44% at 8,386, SMI -0.47% at 12,302, AEX +0.08% at 975.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Bloom Energy (BE): EPS & revenue topped.
- Centene (CNC): Surprise profit per shr & revenue topped; raised FY EPS guide.
- Caterpillar (CAT): Top & bottom-line surpassed Wall St. expected.
- Verizon (VZ): Profit topped.
- Boeing (BA): Choppy trade; deeper loss per shr. than expected & took a USD 4.9bln charge for the latest delay to the 777x jetliner; Revenue beat & surprise positive FCF.
- CVS Health (CVS): Took $5.7bln charge on struggling health care delivery unit; note, strong Q3 metrics & raised FY revenue view.
- Mondelez International (MDLZ): Revenue marginally light & anticipates challenging conditions to continue in some markets.
- Etsy (ETSY): Revenue and profit beat; CEO to step down.
- Fiserv (FI): Profit & revenue way light alongside slashing FY profit view.
- Stride (LRN): 2026 outlook disappointed.
- Teradyne (TER): Q3 metrics and guidance strong.
- Varonis Systems (VRNS): Q3 figures missed, Q4 & FY25 revenue outlook underwhelmed.
- Visa (V): Profit in line, revenue slightly above expectations.
- American Electric Power (AEP): Top line beat & announced $72bln capital plan supported by 28GW new load.
- GE Healthcare (GEHC): Strong report & lifted FY adj. EPS outlook.
- TE Connectivity (TEL): Top & bottom line beat with strong next quarter profit view.
- HHS Secretary Kennedy on Tylenol (KVUE) said not enough evidence to show it definitely causes autism but some studies seem “very suggestive”.
FX
The Dollar rallied on a hawkish Fed Chair Powell. The Fed cut by 25bps as widely expected, with dissent growing at the October meeting as Schmid (2025 voter) joined the camp with Miran (voter), albeit arguing for unchanged rates, while Miran continues to advocate for 50bps increments. Schmid, in the past, has expressed concerns over inflation being too high, arguing that the Fed must maintain inflation credibility, and as such, policy is appropriately calibrated (said in late Sept). Back to Powell, in the press conference, USD strength accelerated after he downplayed market expectations of another cut in December, arguing another cut is far from assured, with differing views present on the committee regarding the policy path ahead. Changes within the statement saw the Fed sound more optimistic on economic activity. The Fed announced the end of QT, an expected decision, effective December 1st. DXY rose sits near the 99.356 session high from earlier 98.62 lows. Expectations of a 25bps rate cut in the December meeting fell to 65% from ~98% pre-Fed decision.
G10FX ex-CAD was sold vs USD as reduced expectations over another Fed cut in September saw the Dollar soar and left participants revising the attractiveness of USD peers on a rate differential basis. CHF, GBP, and JPY were the biggest losers, while USD/CAD was unchanged.
CAD finished the trading day flat as strength found on the BoC’s rate decision was offset by developments at the Fed. The BoC cut rates by a further 25bps to 2.25% as widely expected, with the scope for more easing seemingly limited given the accompanying statement. The central bank described the current policy rate as “about the right level” to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Following the BoC announcement, USD/CAD hit lows of 1.3889 before paring to around 1.3950 into APAC trade.
AUD was originally leading G10 strength after a hotter-than-expected Australian CPI data, which resulted in firms (GS & CBA) dropping their rate cut calls from the RBA. Odds of a Nov cut dropped to 8% from ~42% prior the the release. AUD/USD reached highs of 0.6617 before succumbing to late-staged USD strength, leaving the pair at ~0.6561 at the time of writing.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Pending Home Sales Rise Most In Almost A Year As Mortgage Rates Slide
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 10:08 AM
September data for the US housing market has been positive so far (with new home sales soaring and existing home sales ‘off the lows’) as mortgage rates trend lower offering some affordability respite for buyers.
However, today’s pending home sales data disappointed, printing unchanged MoM versus expectations of a 1.2% MoM rise (after an upwardly revised 4.2% MoM rise in August)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the bright side, on a YoY basis, sales rose 1.5% – the best since Nov 2024.
The total pending home sales Index pushed further ‘off the record lows’, but is hardly
Source: Bloomberg
“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Nonetheless, “mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which should further improve affordability, though the government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.”
Moreover, the so-called “lock-in effect” – in which homeowners resist selling because of their existing low-rate mortgages – is waning and helping to boost inventory.
Source: Bloomberg
By region, contract signings on previously owned homes rose 1.1% in the South to the highest level since March.
Pending sales also climbed in the Northeast, while falling in the West and Midwest.
Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
CHICAGO
Young Workers Will Pay The Price For Chicago Mayor’s Employee Tax
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Micky Horstman via AmGreatness.com,
This economy is one of the toughest job markets for entry-level positions, and now, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is advancing new tax hikes in his budget that will make it even more difficult for Gen Z workers to build lives and careers in the city.
As he unveiled his third budget last week, Mayor Johnson took to a familiar tactic to fill a $1.15 billion budget shortfall: new taxes, higher fees.
The target of his worst tax hikes this time is the business community—and if history is any indicator, results are poised to be disastrous. Johnson announced he’d revive the city’s long-defunct business “head tax,” charging businesses with over 100 employees—such as McDonald’s, United, and other large firms—a $21 per employee per month fee.
Second-tier cities, including Raleigh, Baltimore, and our neighbor Milwaukee, have positioned themselves as technology hubs and are courting businesses and attracting young workers with affordable cost-of-living and well-paying positions.
Johnson, read the room. Chicago needs to do the same. Business giants such as Boeing, Caterpillar, TTX, Citadel, and Tyson have already left. This tactic will punish growth and make hiring even more expensive.
Even Gov. JB Pritzker has spoken out against the hike. Instead, the mayor is pushing for more taxes that risk driving out more businesses and young employees, right when Chicago most needs to grow and can least afford to lose them.
Chicago’s original head tax charged companies with 50 or more employees $4 per worker. It raised about $35 million annually before Mayor Rahm Emanuel phased it out, calling it a “job killer.”
The city estimates a new head tax could generate $100 million, yet the cost to Chicago’s competitiveness could be enormous. If you have 500 employees in Chicago, you would now owe $126,000 annually.
Chicago businesses already pay the third-highest state corporate income tax and the highest commercial property tax in the country. It’s no surprise that office vacancy continues to hit record highs, currently at 28%, and employers are fleeing to more competitive locales.
From 2015 to 2024, Chicago lost nearly one in five businesses—about 11,200 in total. The pandemic exacerbated a worrying trend. Chicago could lose hundreds more this year. Entrepreneurs and start-ups would be disincentivized from scaling or even opening their doors in Chicago in the first place. Why start a business in a city that will punish you for growing?
It would be especially hard for young Chicagoans trying to start their careers, as entry-level jobs are often the first ones cut when employers face new costs. Young workers who already struggle with Chicago’s rising cost of living may face fewer job openings, lower salaries, and slower hiring. New graduates across the Midwest could start choosing other cities instead.
Chicago’s unemployment rate already hovers around 4.6%—above the national average for large metro areas. Everyday Chicagoans are struggling to find work, while the city is pushing new taxes that will deter and punish large-scale employers, especially in blooming tech industries.
Johnson insists the city faces a “revenue challenge.”
But the problem stems from overspending and a city budget that’s grown faster than the city’s economy or population. Chicago’s budget has ballooned by $7 billion since 2019—a 62% increase. That’s more than double the growth rate of peer cities such as New York, Los Angeles, or Houston.
Federal relief masked overspending for years, but now that it’s gone, Johnson’s budget fails to address the increase in staffing and programming that was funded by temporary aid. As a result, City Hall keeps inventing new ways to nickel-and-dime Chicagoans. Johnson’s 2026 budget adds a first-in-the-nation social media tax on tech companies and increases taxes on rideshares, cloud-computing services, and sports betting.
Johnson would bankroll recent government spending by imposing a tax on private labor. Government institutions—Illinois’ fastest growing employer type—and nonprofits such as the Chicago Teachers Union will be exempt from the tax, despite being large employers themselves.
The city needs structural reform. Nearly 40% of Chicago’s local spending now goes to pensions and debt; the city desperately needs constitutional pension reform to address the growing, unsustainable burden. Chicago must right-size its government to at least 2019 levels, and should adopt a spending cap tied to 10-year inflation. Reducing the commercial property tax burden could also help attract large-scale firms that have been opting for low-tax states.
The best way to address the city’s revenue needs is to attract young residents and businesses and encourage existing employers to stay and expand—not by taxing them out of the city. Reviving a failed head tax will only make the city’s problems worse. It’s time to stop taxing work and start fixing government spending.
END
USA
THIS WILL CREATE CHAOS, EXACTLY WHAT THE DEMOCRATS WANT
(zerohedge)
Food Stamps To Be Paused For 42 Million Americans: What To Know…
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 08:05 AM
Food stamps are set to be paused on Nov. 1 because of the government shutdown.
Some 42 million Americans will not receive benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) until Congress approves new funding, according to federal officials, although some states have taken steps to intervene.
Congress made money available for SNAP for October before failing to reach a new government funding agreement, which resulted in the government shutting down on Oct. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a letter to regional and state SNAP officials.
There is not enough money to pay full SNAP benefits to the approximately 42 million SNAP recipients in November, the USDA says.
“Bottom line, the well has run dry,” the USDA said on Oct. 25.
“At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 01.”
As Ryan McMaken details below, via The Mises Institute, according to the Treasury Department’s report on federal spending for fiscal year 2025, total spending on food stamps—also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—was $106 billion for the twelve-month period ending September 30. Even in our post-covid age of runaway monetary inflation, 106 billion dollars is still, as they say, “real money,” and SNAP spending doesn’t even include other food-subsidy programs like WIC and school lunch programs.
In spite of much talk about how the Trump administration is supposedly defunding these programs, they’re not going anywhere. For the calendar year of 2025, the US is on pace to see an increase of six to seven billion dollars over 2024’s SNAP spending total of $99.7 billion. This only continues the longer term upward trend in food-stamp spending.
Indeed, since the Great Recession (i.e., 2008), when total SNAP spending was $52 billion, total spending on the program has doubled—even when measured in inflation-adjusted dollars.
The number of food-stamp recipients has “only” increased by 47 percent over that same period, meaning that per-capita spending for recipients has gone up.
In 2008, total SNAP spending per recipient was $1,847. By 2024, overall per-recipient spending had increased by 30 percent, rising to $2,393.
The overall trend continues upward although the biggest increases occurred during the first Obama administration, during the Biden years, and under Trump’s mega-spending increases of 2020.
Since 2010, the total percentage of the US population that is on food stamps has not fallen below 12 percent.
Nationwide, the total percentage of the population receiving food stamps can vary significantly by state, and region. Measured state-by-state, we find that more than one in five residents of New Mexico receive food stamps. In Utah, on the other hand, fewer than one in twenty receive food stamps.
There are sizeable differences by race and ethnicity as well. Although they comprise 58 percent of the US population, non-Hispanic whites account for only 36.5 percent of all SNAP recipients. Blacks comprise about 26 percent of SNAP recipients although blacks are only 12 percent of the US population. Asians comprise 3.3 percent of the food-stamp recipient population. Those who self-identify as Hispanic (of any race) comprise 16 percent of the recipient population. (Note: according to the Census Bureau data used here, “Hispanic” is classified as an ethnicity and not a race. Since fifty percent of Hispanics self-identify as “white,” self-identified whites actually comprise 71 percent of the population, not 58 percent. (Pew studies suggest that 58 percent of Hispanics self-identify as white.)
Source: “Characteristics of SNAP Households, 2019“, 2020 Census tables P3, P4, P7
Immigration status can be a factor as well. According to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), more than a third of immigrant-headed households receive food stamps or some other form of food subsidy such as WIC. Nearly half of households headed by illegal-immigrants receive food stamps. (This data is from the 2022 SIPP report.) The percentage for native-born households, on the other hand, is 25 percent. (Note: This is a household number, so is not comparable to the total percentage of individuals in the US population who receive food stamps.)
Source: CIS analysis of 2022 SIPP report data.
In any case, it is remarkable that one in 8 US residents now receive food stamps, and during a period when the “official” opinion is that the US economy is in excellent shape and in a boom period.
This disconnect is due to two factors:
First, it has become easier to qualify for food stamps over the past 15 years.
Moreover, aggregated data about the overall economy hides the fact that economic conditions for lower income households is not nearly as good as that of higher-income groups.
In many cases, thanks largely to the central bank and its monetary inflation, income and wealth have stagnated for middle- and lower- income groups while net worth and income has soared for those who own large amounts of assets and benefit from the financialized economy.
Epoch’s Zachary Stieber details the standoff in Washington…
Trump Admin: Contingency Funds Can’t be Used
Democrats and some organizations have urged the USDA to utilize its contingency funds to ensure that at least some recipients don’t have benefits paused.
About $5 billion in contingency funding is available, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The remaining $3 billion could come from other areas, the center said, pointing to how the Trump administration used $300 million in revenue from tariffs to fund a separate program in October called the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children.
“There are clear steps the administration can and must take immediately to ensure that millions of families across the country can put food on their table in November,” Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Subcommittee on Nutrition and Foreign Agriculture, and 213 other House Democrats said in a letter to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins. Most Senate Democrats sent a similar letter to the agriculture secretary.
The USDA said in a memorandum that it could not legally use the contingency funds because the pending pause is not an emergency. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) backed that position on Oct. 27.
Can States Take Action?
States cannot cover benefits, according to the USDA memo.
“There is no provision or allowance under current law for states to cover the cost of benefits and be reimbursed,” it stated.
Some states have said they will help SNAP recipients, including Virginia and Louisiana, whose governors declared emergencies to obtain emergency funds. They have not yet released details of how they will utilize emergency funds to assist food stamp recipients.
Other states have said that instead of directly providing SNAP benefits, they will look to help recipients access food. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said Monday that he was sending $3 million to Connecticut Foodshare to help the nonprofit with the expected higher burden when food stamps are paused. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said her administration has fast-tracked $30 million to food banks.
Lawsuit Explored
State officials have decried the looming deadline for SNAP.
Although none have filed lawsuits, officials in at least one state said they’re exploring litigation.
“Even with state efforts, the lack of federal SNAP funding will disrupt the lives of over 63,000 Vermonters and could cause real harm,” Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said in a statement on Oct. 27.
“This is another area where there is bipartisan support for a lawsuit seeking to require the federal government to release contingency funding it has available for emergencies. I have directed my administration to work with Attorney General [Charity] Clark to support a multi-state lawsuit.”
What About Saved Benefits?
The SNAP program gives debit-like cards that are boosted each month with money to buy groceries.
People do not have to use their allocated money each month.
It’s unclear whether people who have accumulated money on their cards will still be able to use them.
State officials have offered conflicting views, and the USDA has not responded to requests for comment on the matter.
END
CRACKER BARREL
A WOKE COMPANY:
Cracker Barrel Shares Down About 32% This Year, Following “Century’s Worst Brand Blunder”
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 10:00 AM
Cracker Barrel tried to go “modern,” and eight days later had to shove Uncle Herschel back into the logo. Two months on, investors are still cleaning up the mess — the stock is down 32% this year and inching toward its 2008 financial-crisis faceplant.
CEO Julie Felss Masino thought removing the overalls-wearing mascot would “revive” the 50-year-old chain. Instead, loyal diners, conservative activists, and even Donald Trump dragged the company for ditching its Southern identity. Some shareholders now want her gone, according to Bloomberg.
As Biglari Capital put it: “Management has relied on ill-conceived strategies that have worsened existing challenges rather than solved them.” They’re calling for votes against Masino and board compensation chair Gilbert Dávila. Biglari owns 2.9% of the company — and apparently 97% of the patience.
Bloomberg writes that traffic hasn’t recovered even after firing the marketing firm and scrapping remodel plans, per Placer.ai data. Cracker Barrel’s defense: “We’ve taken recent guest feedback to heart and are moving forward with a renewed focus on the food and guest experience.”
Translation: We hear you, please come back.
This Bud Light-style misfire comes as the whole industry struggles with inflation and weak traffic. But Cracker Barrel is making its own problems: an 8% drop in visits after the logo fiasco vs. 1% before. Wells Fargo’s Anthony Trainor noted, “Cracker Barrel’s turnaround has come off track… It will take time for the brand to recover.”
Their solution? A $19.99 two-entree-plus-dessert deal that Trainor says doesn’t “address underlying issues.”
The “not ideological at all” rebrand has vaporized nearly $600 million in value. Masino insists the logo tweak was just about billboard visibility — because nothing says legibility like erasing your mascot and your customer base.
Competitors aren’t doing great either — Cheesecake Factory, Brinker, Chipotle — but to their credit, at least they didn’t attempt a woke makeover that backfired instantly.
Biglari’s final roast: the logo stunt ranks “among this century’s worst brand blunders alongside Bud Light and Jaguar.” Congratulations, Cracker Barrel — you’re in legendary company.
END
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy Warns Of Nationwide Flight Delays Amid Government Shutdown
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 12:20 PM
Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,
Flight delays throughout the country could increase as more and more controllers call in sick over their first full missed paycheck due to the ongoing government shutdown, officials warned on Tuesday.
National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) President Nick Daniels also said that many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. That number will increase the longer the shutdown continues, he said.
“This job is stressful enough,” Daniels said Tuesday at La Guardia International Airport in New York.
“We go to work day in and day out and make thousands of decisions. We do it five days a week. Most of us actually do it six and five is hard enough, and we do it in 10 hours a day. Now, you add in the fact that we had a partial paycheck already and we missed a full paycheck.”
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—already short approximately 3,000 controllers who routinely work six-day, 10-hour shifts—has reported delays as a result of staffing gaps.
The FAA limits landings and takeoffs amid shortages, causing disruptions that last from 30 minutes to more than two hours long. Staffing shortages can even result in temporary ground stops.
Aviation data shows no sharp spike in overall delays, despite the government shutdown beginning Oct. 1.
Analytics firm Cirium determined that about 80 percent of flights at 14 major U.S. airports were on time this month, in line with historical patterns where approximately 20 percent of flights face delays longer than 15 minutes for various reasons.
Although a two-hour staffing-related ground stop at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on Sunday caused numerous delays, Cirium data shows 72 percent of LAX flights departed on schedule that day.
Though Duffy and Daniels shared concerns over the overburdened workforce of about 30,000 air traffic controllers, they downplayed the risk of a strike.
“Air traffic controllers have to have 100 percent of focus 100 percent of the time,” Daniels said.
“And I’m watching air traffic controllers going to work. I’m getting the stories. They’re worried about paying for medicine for their daughter. I got a message from a controller that said, ‘I’m running out of money. And if she doesn’t get the medicine she needs, she dies. That’s the end.’”
Controllers held demonstrations at 20 airports nationwide, distributing leaflets calling for an end to the shutdown.
“We’re talking to our coworkers about how to get zero-interest loans,” Mike Christine, National Air Traffic Controllers Association’s (NATCA) eastern regional vice president, told Reuters.
New York-area controller Joe Segretto said the situation makes an already tough situation more difficult for trainees in a high-pressure line of work. The shutdown has disrupted hiring and training, contributing to the ongoing staffing shortage. The systems used by air traffic controllers are also dated, as the Government Accountability Office (GAO) underscores broader risks from aging ATC systems and sluggish modernization efforts in the sector.
“The pressure is real,” Segretto said. “We have people trying to keep these airplanes safe. We have trainees—that are trying to learn a new job that is very fast-paced, very stressful, very complex—now having to worry about how they’re going to pay bills.”
Daniels echoed this in a statement posted to the NATCA website on Oct. 24.
“The shutdown is adding stress to air traffic controllers and their families,” he wrote.
Duffy also said that the shutdown, now in its 28th day, has led to students dropping out of the air traffic controller academy in Oklahoma City, adding that it will therefore be harder to close the staffing gap at airports. He said younger controllers might choose a different career path because they can’t go without pay.
“This shutdown is making it harder for me to accomplish those goals,” Duffy said.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 29, 2025 Issue 7608 | Independent View of the News |
| ESZs opened moderately higher on Monday night and rallied to 6917.50 (+9.25) at 19:31 ET. They then did a stair-step decline to the daily low of 6901.50 (-6.75) at 4:37 ET. ESZs then plodded to 6918.75 at 8:17 ET. After a retreat to 6914.75 at 8:52 ET, ESZs did a near-vertical rally to 6925.50 at 9:03 ET. After double topping at 6927.50 at 9:13 ET and 6927.25 at the NYSE opening, the professional dump commenced. ESZs sank, via an A-B-C decline, to 6903.00 at 11:33 ET. Selling for the 11:30 ET European close was a factor in the ‘C’ wave. The counter reaction to the European close ignited an explosive rally that propelled ESZs to a daily high of 6944.75 at 15:28 ET. The explosive afternoon rally was led my Nvidia, which was +6.2% at 15:14 ET. Nvidia CEO Huang announced, during NVDA’s GTC Conference (13:00 ET start,) several projects and contracts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s 3 biggest announcements in GTC keynote A partnership with Nokia (NOK) to build out a 6G platform dubbed NVIDIA Arc (Aerial RAN Computer); the NVQLink, a high-speed interconnect for quantum computing; and the semiconductor manufacturer’s partnership with the US government’s Department of Energy to construct 7 new AI supercomputers. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huangs-3-173705440.html Palantir and Nvidia Team Up to Operationalize AI – Turning Enterprise Data into Dynamic Decision Intelligence – Palantir is integrating Nvidia accelerated computing, Nvidia CUDA-X libraries and open-source Nvidia Nemotron models into its Ontology framework at the core of the Palantir AI Platform… Globe Newswire Eli Lilly Teams with Nvidia to Build AI Supercomputer for Drug Discovery – WSJ 14:30 ET Nvidia Unveils System to Link Quantum Computers to Its AI Chips – BBG 13:38 ET Nvidia, Lucid team up for true autonomous driving in future vehicles https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-lucid-team-up-for-true-autonomous-driving-in-future-vehicles-183003060.html Jensen Huang says Nvidia’s AI chips are now being manufactured in Arizona https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/nvidia-jensen-huang-gtc-washington-dc-ai.html Nvidia’s Huang Works to Convince Investors There’s No AI Bubble – BBG 14:44 ET Saying company’s latest chips on track to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue… After the Nvidia conference and hype machine ended, ESZs sank to 6924.25 at 15:50 ET. After a modest late rally, ESZs slid to 6923.75 at 16:00 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Mag stocks rallied sharply on manic buying for coming results and NVDA’s latest hype. The DJIA rallied smartly. USZs rallied modestly. Gold declined smartly. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA closed -105.74. The DJUA closed -21.88. ESZs and stocks sank during the final 32 minutes of trading. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are the usual suspects too long? The late tumble could be an omen. First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6890.97 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6911.30; 6870.73 @AnnCoulter: For 50+ years, the federal government has been paying Americans not to work by feeding, housing and medicating them for “free,” and then wonder why we have so many useless, jobless, helpless people. ABC: Israel has accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire deal by withholding the bodies of the remaining 13 deceased hostages thought to have died during or after the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023… @FoxNews: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders ‘immediate and powerful strikes in the Gaza Strip’ House Oversight Committee deems some of Biden’s autopen orders ‘invalid,’ asks DOJ to investigate – The findings come after a monthslong probe into the Biden administration’s use of an autopen for executive decisions and pardons… “Executive actions performed by Biden White House staff and signed by autopen are null and void,” he added… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/emb-5am-oversight-committee-deems-some-bidens-order-invalid-asks-doj-review Today is Fed Day! The known universe expects a 25bp cut. The usual suspects are loaded up for a 50bp cut. Two keys: The tone of the FOMC Communique (14 ET) and Powell’s degree of dovishness at his 14:30 ET press conference. Barring a hawkish Fed or Powell surprise, traders want to be long into the close and for Thursday because Meta, Microsoft, and Google (Alphabet) are expected to report great results after today’s close. Apple and Amazon close Mag 7 reporting season (NVDA reports Nov. 19) tomorrow. Also, bulls expect a China-US trade deal announcement tomorrow at the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, and October performance gaming tomorrow and on Friday. Expected results after 16:00 ET: Microsoft EPS 3.68, Rev 75.562B; Meta EPS 8.43m GAAP EPS 6.72, Rev 49.574; Google EPS 2.52, GAAP+ EPS 2.26; Rev 85.107B ESAs are -0.25; NQZs are +6.50; Dec AU is -4.80; and USZs are +2/32 at 20:10 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 661; 100-day MA: 6426; 150-day MA: 6158; 200-day MA: 6097 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,068; 100-day MA: 45,002; 150-day MA: 43,698; 200-day MA: 43,629 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6890.89 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6423.18 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6704.43 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6875.39 triggers a sell signal House Judiciary GOP @JudiciaryGOP: New Arctic Frost documents reveal even further wide ranging investigation by Biden’s DOJ to take down President Trump and his supporters. HIGHLIGHTS: -Arctic Frost investigators utilized FBI field offices from across the country to conduct its investigation. -Arctic Frost investigators requested $16,600 to travel to conduct more than 40 interviews. -45 individuals including, Steve Bannon, Scott Perry, Rudolph Giuliani, Jeffrey Clark, John Eastman, and Mark Meadows were potentially under investigation. -Another 111 individuals including Peter Navarro, Dan Scavino, Jeff Rosen, and Ed Martin were also potentially under investigation. READ ALL THE DOCUMENTS HERE: https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/2025-11/FBI-HJC119-AF-000001-000198.pdf @Rainmaker1973: An egg-sized chunk of uranium delivers as much electricity as 88 tonnes (97 tons) of coal. The true marvel, though, lies not only in the output but in the density of that power… At the heart of each uranium atom sits a colossal reserve of energy. When a uranium-235 nucleus splits in fission, it unleashes heat and neutrons. Those neutrons collide with neighboring atoms, triggering more splits in a runaway chain reaction. Atom for atom, this cascade liberates millions of times more energy than combusting coal or oil… https://x.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1983220683900666257 Antonio Gates allegedly hosted and played in rigged Miami poker game: report Gates denied the allegations in a statement released on Monday through his business manager, Denise White… https://trib.al/g6qc884 @ThomasSowell: (Black comedian): “I just found out I’m being oppressed. I saw it on CNN, a white lady said it… Nobody knows blacks struggle like white women. And I thought I was having a good life until I got basic cable.” https://x.com/ThomasSowell/status/1982939112085827833 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
University Of Colorado TPUSA Student Leader Attacked After Antifa Posted “Hit List”
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 01:40 PM
As Democratic leaders like Rep. Dan Goldman (D, N.Y.) insist that Antifa does not exist as a group, two Antifa groups — Front Range Antifa and Colorado Springs Antifa — put out a hit list poster on a University of Colorado sophomore and leader in Turning Point USA. He was promptly attacked by a person in the signature Antifa black outfit on roller blades who used a hockey stick to mete out the punishment.
According to a press release, Boulder Police are looking for a suspect accused of attacking a 19-year-old Turning Point USA student leader near the University of Colorado, Boulder on Thursday evening. The attacker is suspected to be an Antifa member and to have followed the victim in the premeditated attack.
The suspect is described as dressed in “all black clothing, a black ski mask, and had a green Gatorade bottle with an orange top in his back right pants pocket. He was skating with a hockey stick. The suspect fled the scene after the victim called 911, and Boulder Police and CU Police officers searched the area but did not locate him.”
Police added:
“In the interest of transparency, detectives are also confirming that they are aware that the victim was the subject of some social media posts and a digital flyer circulated by others prior to last night’s incident. Whether these played a role in the reported assault is part of the investigation, and police are not commenting further on this finding.”
The Antifa flyer accused the sophomore of being “an active member” of “neo-Nazi organizations” and is “responsible for white supremacist, antisemitic, and anti-LGBTQ vandalism on campus and across Boulder,” and also “participated in a white supremacist boxing tournament.” The Boulder Students for a Democratic Society reportedly shared the flyer on their social media. They encouraged followers to “share widely” and tag the school to notify them of a “Nazi activist on CU Boulder campus.”
The TPUSA student was not seriously injured, but the point was made by Antifa that any critics can be tracked down and attacked.
Recently, in a debate with my colleague Professor Mary Ann Frank on free speech, I objected when she repeated the often-used claim on the left that “if you oppose Antifa, you are by definition a fascist.” I noted that many in the free speech community have been threatened by this group, which is the most violent, anti-free speech movement in the United States.
At the same time, Democratic leaders are ramping up denials of the very existence of Antifa as a group in an effort to deflect criticism for their own increasingly rage-filled rhetoric at a time of rising political violence.
Recently, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) claimed that “nobody” knows what the left-wing terrorist organization Antifa is and that it does not exist. However, he previously promoted the “Antifa Handbook” in 2018 and praised the group as terrifying Trump. Now, however, he has joined the chorus of Antifa denials as political violence rises around the country.
As I previously wrote, it is reminiscent of how, roughly seventy years ago, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover famously declared, “There is no organized crime in America.” Hoover’s stubborn denial of the existence of the mafia continued despite ample evidence to the contrary, from arrests to congressional testimony.
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) seemed to morph into Hoover before our very eyes, including a posting in which he challenged anyone to “name one member of ‘Antifa.’” The Justice Department then named two in another criminal prosecution of Antifa members.
Former House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) was widely ridiculed for denying the existence of Antifa.
Others on the left have joined Goldman in this absurd claim. Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel committed part of his monologue to assure viewers that Antifa is no more than a mythical “chupacabra.” “You understand there is no Antifa,” he said. “This is an entirely made-up organization.”
I have testified about Antifa before Congress, published columns on the organization for over a decade, and wrote a book discussing Antifa. I did oppose declaring Antifa a terrorist organization due to free speech concerns, but I also know that it is very real.
By design, Antifa avoids typical leadership hierarchies and organizational structures. Antifa was first created in the 1920s, associated with the Weimar-era German communist group Antifaschistische Aktion.
Many protesters belong to Antifa groups that have names like “Rose City Antifa” and offshoots like Love and Rage and Mexico’s Amor Y Rabia. Antifa members have been elected to the French and European parliaments.
Law enforcement officials, like former FBI Director Christopher Wray, have long debunked deniers like Goldman. “Antifa is a real thing,” said Wray.
Ironically, when many on the left are not denying its existence, they are rallying their members or actually selling Antifa merchandise. As noted above, former Democratic National Committee deputy chair Keith Ellison — now the Minnesota attorney general — proclaimed that Antifa would “strike fear in the heart” of Trump.
His own son, Minneapolis City Council member Jeremiah Ellison, declared his allegiance to Antifa in the heat of the protests this summer.
But, with Antifa violence on the rise, Democratic leaders have gone back to denying its existence even as Antifa deploys its signature black hoodies and masks.
The Colorado case shows just how real, violent, and organized this group is in the United States.
END
Letters Confirm Liz Cheney Secretly Worked ‘Hand-In-Hand’ With Jack Smith
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 02:45 PM
Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,
Two newly released congressional letters confirm years-long reporting that the anti-Trump Jan. 6 committee had quietly colluded with Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into President Donald Trump.
The letters, from Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and disgraced former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., reveal the lawmakers’ rush to hand over evidence before Republicans took control of Congress in 2023.
In those exchanges, they produced at least 16 interviews, deposition transcripts, exhibits, phone numbers and spreadsheets as part of their investigation into the events of Jan. 6, 2021.
One letter, dated Dec. 5, 2022, shows Thompson and Cheney informing Smith that while the body was concluding its work, they wanted to make the evidence they gathered “available to the Department of Justice.”
In that letter, the anti-Trump politicians told Smith he would receive “16 transcripts of interviews and depositions taken by” the committee, including “exhibits associated with those transcripts.” They even promised to facilitate “additional evidence as soon as possible.”
Just four days later, Thompson and Cheney wrote again to Smith, announcing the production of documents obtained from John Eastman and text messages from Mark Meadows, then Trump’s White House chief of staff.
“Along with the latter, we are producing a staff-created spreadsheet of the Meadows texts that contain additional information from privilege logs that Mr. Meadows provided to the Select Committee,” they added.
Even after those documents, they vowed to produce more materials to Smith “on a rolling basis.”
Now, the never-before-seen letters confirm what many suspected: the controversial committee worked “hand-in-hand” with Smith, the House Judiciary Committee said Tuesday.
Smith was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to target Trump after the 2020 election. Smith later used those materials to indict Trump, first over a document dispute between Trump and the Biden-led National Archives, and later over his objections to the certification of the 2020 election results.
The origins of that collusion trace back to the Jan. 6 committee itself, which was created in 2022 by then–Speaker Nancy Pelosi and excluded pro-Trump lawmakers.
A new panel led by Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., is investigating the 2022 committee’s actions, including allegedly criminal behavior, after accusations it deleted files, engaged in partisan activity and covered up misconduct.
Tellingly, both Cheney and Thompson received preemptive pardons from President Joe Biden for any wrongdoing committed during the congressional investigation.
Read the 2022 letters below:
GREG HUNTER..INTERVIEWING LARRY KLAYMAN
Trump Getting Ready to End Violent US Revolution – Larry Klayman
By Greg Hunter On October 29, 2025 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Just as predicted months ago by renowned attorney Larry Klayman, the Left continues to ramp up violence against ICE in the process of deporting millions of illegal aliens. Brace yourself for more savagery. Klayman says, “It can only get worse. President Trump has been incredibly successful in what he has done. It’s not just shutting down the border or negotiating peace treaties. It’s the record stock market, and the economy is generally doing very well. . . and inflation is coming down. Because of that success . . . and even Bill Mahr says Trump has been successful, the Democrats are panicking. They realize the only thing they can do is foment revolution. . .. They realize, as Karl Marx realized and Saul Alinsky realized, that the way you take control of a society is to destabilize it. You destabilize it by destroying Judeo-Christian values, and you destabilize it by creating civil unrest and revolution.”
InfoWars.com is reporting, “The Democrat Party is Officially Bragging that they are Going to Use the EBT/SNAP Benefit Shut Down to Trigger Mass Looting & Civil Unrest in the Hope of Igniting a Civil War.” Klayman says, “What was published by InfoWars was not way out. It’s absolutely correct, and that is exactly what they are going to do. It will be food riots and everything else. . .. We have seen two assassination attempts on President Trump. We have seen a bounty on the head of Pam Bondi. We have seen the assassination of Charlie Kirk. We have seen leaders from Chicago and the Governor (of Illinois) . . . the mayor of Boston, Massachusetts and all around the country, Portland and Seattle, are all calling for violence. We are in a situation where President Trump would be correct in using the Insurrection Act of 1807 and declaring martial law. I believe he is about ready to do it.”
Klayman goes on to say, “You know what is interesting with regard to martial law? There has never been a Supreme Court opinion that outlaws it. We have used it 68 times in our nation’s history for riots. It is perfectly legal, and it can be done by President Trump as a national declaration. It is carried out by a military officer to quell unrest. In the Insurrection Act, the President has to issue a proclamation, and then he can invoke that to quell unrest and civil disobedience that rises to the level of violence. Those are two tools he can use here, and he ought to use them quickly. He’s using the Insurrection Act now and in Chicago, and he’s going to the Supreme Court for clearance for that.”
In closing, Klayman points out, “It is a full court press to destroy us physically, and in terms of us to be able to bring lawsuits and defend lawsuits on behalf of conservative libertarian and religious interests in this country. These people are the disciples of the devil—period, as Joe Biden used to say.
There is more in the 63-minute interview.
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