access market
GOLD $4024.15 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 48.90 (3:30 PM)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2025: 3 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 300 OZ or 0.00933 TONNES
total notices so far: 58,822 contracts for 5,882,200 OR 182.961 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.050 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7912 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 39.560 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT: 39.565 MILLION OZ (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING)
+ 2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK
EQUALS
41.675 MILLION OZ..
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 81.520 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
AND NOW OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
AND NOW OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 246.2706 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
SPREADING OPERATIONS
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 135 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,052 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 300 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 135 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 165 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.95 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.225 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.95
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS FRIDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.43 POINTS OR 0.73%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 63.45 PTS OR 0.24%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 17.96 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1092// OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1083/ Oil UP TO 60.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.43 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1092 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1083 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMAL 944 CONTRACTS TO 456,178 OI DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $15.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST NO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4300). WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. HOWEVER AGAIN, IT WAS THE MAJOR SPECULATORS THAT WENT SHORT AND THE BANKERS WHO TOOK THE LONG SIDE AS THE SHORTS WERE LED BY THE NOSE BY THE BANKERS. THEN MUCH TO THH SPECS HORROR, THE BANKERS TENDERED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
WE HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3356 CONTRACTS (OR 10.43 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL//GOLD ISSUANCE//OCTOBER:
THUS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 14.553 TONNES OF GOLD UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF 6 ISSUANCES.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD:
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;
(TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES//BANK OF ENGLAND TOTAL RESERVES LISTED AT 310 TONNES.)
JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 9 MONTH TOTALS 127.5 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 30 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES LAST MONTH AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 30 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 9TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH OCT//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 9 MONTHS ISSUANCE 130.3 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OCTOBER COMEX MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3356 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 6.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS HOWEVER A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE AS THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1517 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY’S AND TUESDAY’S HUGE RAIDS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON OUR UPCOMING DAYS.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS:
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE SET TO BEGIN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS HAVE DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN. IT WILL BE QUITE A TRADING WEEK //OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY FRIDAY OCT 31..COMEX EXPIRY TUESDAY OCT 28. THE FED IS MOST LIKELY TRYING TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD AND SILVER PRIOR TO THEIR MEETING OCT 29 WHERE HE WILL LOWER INTEREST RATES (MAYBE 1/2 PT) AND THAT WILL SET A FIRESTORM OF PRICE INFLATION.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 7 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES
AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
AND THIS BRINGS US TO OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT:
F) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP,OCT 3 OF 4.898 TONNES OF GOLD
G) STRONG QUEUE JUMP OCT 4: 0.9704 TONNES
H) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 7 OF 3.623 TONNES
I) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 8 FOR 6.942 TONNES
J) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCT 9 FOR 4.979 TONNES
K) A MASSIVE AND 3RD HIGHEST EVER OCT 10 QUEUE JUMP FOR 7.504 TONNES
L) A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.3919 TONNES
M) A RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 9.564 TONNES
N) A HUGE 6.469 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
0) A HUGE 8.326 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
P) A RECORD SETTING 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY SURPASSING TUESDAY’S 9.564 TONNES
Q/ QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONES OF GOLD//
R/ TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.8600 TONNE JUMP
S) OCT 22 QUEUE JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES//
T) 1OCT 23 1.695 TONNES
U) OCT 24. 0.8615 TONNES
V) OCT 27 0.3048 TONNE QUEUE JUMP
W) OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069
X) OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 TONNES
Y) OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 30+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 231 TO 245 EPISODES AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN REMAINS ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF HE FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
SUMMARY OF GOLD QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: AUGUST THROUGH SEPT. AND SUBSEQUENT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AUGUST:
AUGUST: TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING AND TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST; AND THUS STANDING:
WE HAD A HUGE 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST, FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE MONTHS HUGE TOTAL OF 47.2312 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMPS TO WHICH WE ADD AUGUST 7TH,S HUGE 5.443 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE +LAST SATURDAY’S/MONDAY AUG 10 HUGE 776 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.413 TONNES THEN AUGUST 12: 2.637 TONNES: AND NOW AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES ISSUANCE MONDAY’S MASSIVE 9.1016 TONNES ISSUANCE/AUGUST 25, AUGUST 26 9.0699 TONNES , YESTERDAYDAY’S (AUGUST 27) 9.0699 TONNES AND FINALLY TODAY’S TODAL OF 6.923 TONNESS/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 152.208 TONNES.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND QUEUE JUMPING; STANDING FOR GOLD
SUMMARY SEPT: 8.093 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR GOLD // 7 ISSUANCES OF 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/ SEPT MONTH AND THIS IS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES
THAT IS;
A) //TOTAL FOR MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK/MONTH: 22.923 TONNES EX FOR RISK!!
B) //NORMAL DELIVERY OF 25.878 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING.
TOTALS: 48.801 TONNES FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD/SEPT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/OCT
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 4300 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4300 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 4300 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4300 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON!
WE HAD :
- SOME LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//WEDNESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAID OCT 2 AND THAT ENDED IN TOTAL FAILURE! , OCT 7 WE WITNESSED A SMALL RAID TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE TO THE 4000 BARRIER!! EARLY Y\OCT 8 MORNING THE BARRIER TO 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED!! AND THAT SET IN MOTION OUR CROOKS DESPERATE TO CONTROL THEIR HUGE DERIVATIVE LOSSES. (OCT 9 SAW FINALLY AFTER MANY YEARS SILVER PIERCING THE 50 DOLLAR MARK AND THAT WAS WHEN THE CROOKS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM WHEN GOLD FINALLY BROKE THROUGH 4,000 DOLLAR MARK ON OCT. 10 AND GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK DESPITE OUR TWO RAIDS THIS PAST WEEK, ON FRIDAY AND OCT 21 AND ATTEMPTED RAID OCT 24
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//OCT
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1517 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE LAST MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THEN OCT 9 AND THEN OCT 21 AND NOW OCT 24, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS TRADING; (AND MONTH END SPREADERS)
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE..
THAT SET UP YESTERDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD AND A CORRESPONDING FAIR GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 3 MONTHS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 9 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
AND NOW OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING OCT,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $15.20./ /) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 3356 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE DID HAVE HUGE SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION AS THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE SHORT AS THE BANKERS WENT LONG AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A) GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATING THEIR CONTRACTS OUT OF SEVERE FEAR!!(PRELIMINARY NUMBERS LOWERED TO FINAL SHOWING MASSIVE LIQUIDATION). AND B) NOW THE COMMENCEMENT OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THE BANKERS ARE QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT BASEL III WITH ITS IMPLEMENTATION COMMENCING JULY 1. THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED WITH THEIR HIGH AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES LOSSES ON THEIR BOOKS EVEN THOUGH THEY TRANSFERRED THESE LOSSES ONTO THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET.THUS THE REASON THEY NEEDED THESE T.A.S. ISSUANCES NOW IN ORDER TO FORMALIZE RAIDS: OUR CROOKS TRIED AGAIN LATE OCT 2 WITH CHINA OUT FOR A WEEK, WITH NOT MUCH LUCK. WITH CHINA COMING BACK THURSDAY OCT 9 THE CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TRYING DESPERATELY TO HALT GOLD’S ADVANCE. I GUESS THAT THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT WITH GOLD INITIALLY PIERCING THE 4,000 DOLLAR BARRIER OCT 7-8 ALONG WITH THE PIERCING OF SILVER’S MAGIC 50 DOLLAR MARK. GOLD AND SILVER FROM OCT 10 ON, NEVER LOOKED BACK ONCE THEY PIERCED THEIR RESPECTIVE BARRIERS OF 4,000 DOLLAR GOLD AND 50 DOLLAR SILVER. THE CROOKS NOW NEED TO RAID ON EVERY OTHER DAY. AS OCT 21 WAS ANOTHER MASSIVE RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND EQUITY SHARES. THEY ARE TRYING TO CONTAIN PRICING ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS , OCT 24 AND THEN OCT 28, THE LAST DAY FOR COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY.
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
ANALYSIS OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF A TOTAL OF 10.43 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4096 TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ NEW TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING FOR OCTOBER WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $15.20
WE HAD A HUGE XXXX CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3356 CONTRACTS OR 335,600 0Z (10.43 TONNES)
speculators have left the gold arena
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
OCT 31
OCT CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 4 ENTRIES ii) Out of Brinks: 102,915.35 oz (3201 kilobars) ii) Out of Malca 32,890.473 oz (1023 kilobars) iii) Out of JPMorgan: 90,377.500 oz(2500 kilobars) iv) Out of Manfra 48,365 oz 15 kilobars total withdrawal 216,665.589 oz or 6.739 tonnes they are draining the comex of gold |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3 notice(s) 300 OZ 0.00933 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 contracts 000 OZ 0.0000 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 58,822notices 5,882,200oz 182.961 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
4 ENTRIES
ii) Out of Brinks: 102,915.35 oz (3201 kilobars)
ii) Out of Malca 32,890.473 oz (1023 kilobars)
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 90,377.500 oz(2500 kilobars)
iv) Out of Manfra 48,365 oz 15 kilobars
total withdrawal 216,665.589 oz
or 6.739 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 1 dealer to customer
i) out of HSBC: 563,202.323 oz
volume at the comex: TUESDAY: 312,358oz ( VERY STRONG//
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCTOBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCTOBER STANDS AT 13 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 179 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 180 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 100 OZ OR 0.00311 TONNES OF GOLD, WHICH FOLLOWS ALL THE OTHER OCTOBER QUEUE JUMP OF 75.8979 TONNES
THUS OUR NEW NORMAL DELIVERY RISES TO 182.9611 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS) PLUS OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES
NOVEMBER GAINED 225 CONTRACTS UP TO 4590 CONTRACTS.
DECEMBER LOST 3824 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 342,181 CONTRACTS.
We had 3 contracts filed for today representing 300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (58,822 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT ( 3 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (3x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,882,200 OZ OR 182.961 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK //NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES. NO WONDER THE COMEX IS IN TURMOIL WITH THIS MAMMOTH STANDING FOR GOLD.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month: No of notices filed so far (58,822 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT. (3 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz) which equals 5,882,200 OZ OR 182.961 TONNES + 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT..: 197.5141 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.
volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 327,800 contracts huge
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,689,307.185 oz 52.54 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 38,243,476.833oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,854,809.094 or 617.567 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,388,667.789 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 18,165,502 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 565.023tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE OCT. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
OCT 31 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 6 entries i) Out of Asahi: 1,581,035.870 oz ii) Out of CNT 359,556.156 oz iii) Out of Delaware 11,102.100 oz iv) Out of HSBC 600,032,620 oz v) Out of JPMorgan 14,924.500 oz vi) Out of Stonex: 297,709.400 oz total withdrawal 2,864,360.646 oz 4th day in a row for huge silver withdrawal |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT one i) Into Manfra: 410,419.260 oz total deposit 410,419.260 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 10 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.050 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1 contracts (5,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7912 Contracts (39.560 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
one
i) Into Manfra: 410,419.260 oz
total deposit 410,419.260 oz
`
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withdrawals: customer side/eligible
6 entries
i) Out of Asahi: 1,581,035.870 oz
ii) Out of CNT 359,556.156 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 11,102.100 oz
iv) Out of HSBC 600,032,620 oz
v) Out of JPMorgan 14,924.500 oz
vi) Out of Stonex: 297,709.400 oz
total withdrawal 2,864,360.646 oz
4th day in a row for huge silver withdrawal
adjustments: 5
5 dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 9,945.260 oz
b) Loomis 4804.820 oz
c) Manfra; 97,658.258 oz
d) Brinks 56,631.700 oz
e) CNT 196,966.380 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 163.420 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 483.133 Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2025 OI: 11 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 22 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 33 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP FOR 55,000 0Z
THUS
NORMAL STANDING FOR SILVER OCT ADVANCES TO 39.565 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2,110 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK = 41.675 MILLION OZ WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
NOVEMBER LOST 221 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2465
DECEMBER LOST 789 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 106,724
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 or 50,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 153,852 humongous//
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCTOBER. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7912 X5,000 oz = 39.560 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (11) AND the number of notices served upon today (10 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the OCTOBER 2025 contract month: (7912) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCTOBER(11) minus number of notices served upon today (10)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the OCT.contract month equating to 39.565 MILLION OZ to which we must add our initial 2.110 million oz exchange for risk issuance//new standing advances to 41.675 which is mammoth for a non active delivery monthj.
New total standing: 41.675 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 163.420 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 205.739/483.133million. 42.64%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
OCT 31 WITH GOLD UP $XXXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXXX TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $18.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.01 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.73 TONNES
SEPT 29 WITH GOLD UP $48.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.72 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 25 WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY/HUGECHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.85 TONNES
SEPT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $47.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.67 TONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $42.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 6/11 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.67 TONNES
SEPT 22 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 14.61 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED THE GLD. /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.56 TONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $26.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.95 TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1036.05 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 31 WITH SILVER UP $XXX TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXXX MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.09 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.264 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.287 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.34 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.129 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.023 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.37 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED OUT OF THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.894 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 26 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DEPOSITED INTOTHE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.802 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER UP $1.44 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE COMEX THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.222 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.343 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.32 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.265 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR ENTERED THE COMEX/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.121 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.16 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.908 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.357 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.999 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVE
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /245 AND 246
5. COMMODITY REPORT/silver
VBL/Chris Marcus…
silver lease rates are now still a very high 5.6%.
No silver has arrived into India as of yet.
Silver Lease Rates Fall. But LBMA Elephant Remains
by VBL
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 13:58
Silver Price & Lease Rate Fall From Peak, But Large Elephant Remains In The Room…
Submitted by GoldFix; Authored by Chris Marcus
Earlier this week Bloomberg reported on how the pressure in the silver market has eased. And while they didn’t specifically say this, the change in the price and the silver lease rate is the result of silver leaving the Comex and China, and presumably flowing to London and/or India.
The cost of borrowing silver in London has retreated from a record high, a sign that greater liquidity has returned to the market and brought some relief from a squeeze earlier this month.
Silver lease rates – which represent the annualized cost of borrowing metal in the London market – fell to 5.6% on Monday after surging to an all-time peak of 34.9% on Oct. 9, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
I’ve been searching for any indication that silver has started to reach India and resolve their shortage, although it doesn’t appear that’s happened yet (and a Bloomberg article from a week and a half ago said that JP Morgan is telling clients that they’re not expecting any silver in India until November). But the Times of India confirms what I mentioned above about the silver shipments easing this current phase of the squeeze.
So that’s helped to resolve the London shortage, although what’s less clear is how permanent of a solution that actually is.
About 30 million ounces of silver have left the Comex vaults since the breakage in the market on October 9th. Although given that the average daily turnover at the LBMA is about 250 million ounces, and the free float is currently at 153 million ounces, is 30-40 million ounces going to resolve the situation, or just buy a little more time?
(the green ‘other’ is the London free float)
Former JP Morgan Precious Metals Managing Director Robert Gottlieb was on KITCO last week, and he said that he thinks 100-150 million ounces would be needed to normalize the silver market.
Reuters noted that 100-150 tons have come from China, which comes out to 3.2-4.8 million ounces, so that’s not exactly going to bridge the gap either.
Given how the lease rates have dropped back down, which is perhaps one of the best true indicators of how tight or fragile the London market is, it’s not surprising to see the price fall, especially given how gold was getting clobbered at the same time too.
Although for a better understanding of why it seems like the gold and silver prices will almost have to rise over the longer term, I think it would be worthwhile to watch this video about how the thinking regarding gold in Washington is likely changing as we speak.
Even despite the volatile sell-off over the past two weeks, silver is still above $48, while gold is back over $4,000. And especially on the silver side, until there’s some sort of more sustainable longer-term solution (which given the underlying dynamics is somewhat difficult to see happening), there’s a high probability that we haven’t seen the end of this yet.
Sincerely,
Chris Marcus
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.43 POINTS OR 0.73%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 63.45 PTS OR 0.24%
// Nikkei CLOSED : UP 17.96 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1092// OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1083/ Oil UP TO 60.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.43 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1092 // OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.1083 :/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1092
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1083
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 63.45 PTS OR 0.24%
2. Nikkei closed UP 17.96 PTS OR 0.04%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.94 EURO FALLS TO 1.1623 DOWN 21 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.6490//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.70…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.041 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.6439// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.415 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.161
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.2990
3j Gold at $4005.20Silver at: 48.22 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 42 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.70/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.649% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.041 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7984 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9279 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.071 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.627 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.592 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.99 UP 4 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4310 UP 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.193 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.158 UP 12 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.744 UP 12 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Trump-Xi Summit Underwhelms; Mag 7 Earnings Disappoint
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 08:36 AM
US equity futures drop as the Trump-Xi trade truce was in line with expectations and hasn’t provided impetus for stocks to move another leg higher, after Fed Chair Powell’s pushback on another rate cut in December being a lock, while Mag7 stocks are under pressure (META -7.8%, MSFT -3.2%) as we await AAPL and AMZN tonight. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with another wave of results due and nearly half of S&P 500 companies now having reported. Pre-market we are seeing Defensives over Cyclicals, with the exception of Metals / Miners. Gold / Silver continue their rebound as Ags and Energy are lower. Bond yields are trading near session highs, up 2bps to 4.10%, while the USD is near session highs. Besides the trade deal with China, US / Canada resumed talks and US / Mexico extended their trade truce an additional 90 days, earlier this week. The US economic calendar remains blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm). Besides Amazon and Apple reporting after the close, the non-Mag7 earnings focus is mostly on healthcare. Ex-US, the ECB rate decision comes at 9.15a EST.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) gained 7% on Q3 results that beat expectations. Analysts are especially positive on its cloud-computing business. Meta Platforms (META) sank 8% after the Facebook parent reported third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts noted some concern over the company’s heavy spending. Microsoft (MSFT) was down 2% after the software company reported its first-quarter results. Analysts are broadly positive on the report, especially growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, but said investor expectations were elevated (Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) is flat, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.5%)
- Calix (CALX) rises 8% after the application software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
- Carvana (CVNA) falls 7% after the used-car retailer failed to live up to “elevated buy-side bar.” The company said its loan performance was solid amid rising concerns about delinquencies and distress in subprime auto lending.
- Chipotle (CMG) falls 17% after the restaurant chain lowered its full-year projection for comparable sales for a third time this year as customer traffic at its restaurants fell.
- Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) gains 4% after raising its full-year guidance as revenue from its blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter.
- FMC Corp (FMC) sinks 29% after the agricultural chemical company reported worse-than-expected revenues and cut its guidance for the full year below analyst estimates.
- FormFactor (FORM) rises 14% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong, prompting an upgrade.
- Guardant Health (GH) rallies 26% after the biotech company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
- Huntington Ingalls (HII) rises 3% after the military shipbuilder reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Insmed (INSM) climbs 12% after the biotech firm posted quarterly results.
- MediaAlpha (MAX) climbs 11% after the insurance technology company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on.
- REV Group (REVG) rises 6% after Terex agreed to buy the manufacturer of specialty vehicles.
- Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) tumbles 23% after the grocery store chain reported comparable store sales that missed estimates and lowered its forecast for full-year comp sales.
- TransMedics (TMDX) drops 10% after the transplant-therapy company reported total revenue for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
In corporate news, AI startup OpenAI may target a $1 trillion valuation in an IPO as soon as next year, Reuters reported citing unidentified sources. Calpers is is planning to vote against Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla compensation agreement.
On Wednesday, the Fed delivered its second straight rate reduction to support a softening labor market and said they would stop shrinking the portfolio of assets from December. Still, Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another cut this year wasn’t a foregone conclusion, prompting money markets to pare the odds of a quarter-point move to about 60% from near certainty. The European Central Bank is due to announce its policy decision later Thursday.
“After a month of strong growth across global equity markets, I think it’s quite healthy, frankly, to take a breather,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “The path of the Fed — with Powell’s surprise hawkish tilt yesterday — is a big question, as is the extent of capex announced by the Mag 7.”
Trump and Xi agreed to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers in the first sitdown between leaders since Trump’s return to the White House. Despite speculation over potential additional concessions, including opening access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, the President indicated such issues hadn’t been part of the discussions.
Mag 7 sentiment was muted with META and MSFT both under pressure; reaction to releases from tech giants was mixed as investors sought evidence that huge outlays are paying off. Alphabet demonstrated that its spending is fueling growth across Google’s businesses, particularly in cloud computing and search advertising, and said capex for the year will be $91 to $93 billion. Meta said capex in 2026 will be “notably larger” than in 2025, when it expects to spend as much as $72 billion, while Microsoft’s CFO reiterated the company can’t meet current demand for AI and other services, even after spending tens of billions in recent quarters. The three bellwethers together spent $78 billion in capex last quarter, up 89% from a year earlier.
Taking a broader look at Q3 earnings, out of the 248 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed. Advance Auto Parts, Biogen, Bristol-Myers, Cigna, Comcast, Estee Lauder, Hershey, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Altria, Merck, Roblox and S&P Global are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Lilly’s ability to meaningful increase guidance at 3Q results may hinge on the effect of the partial loss of CVS-Caremark formulary coverage for Zepbound that started in July, according to BI.
“There has been a lot of good news priced in,” Nancy Curtin, global chief investment officer at Alti Tiedemann Global, told Bloomberg TV. “Having said that, we are still in the midst of the third-quarter earnings. If we end up again with 12-13% earnings growth in this quarter, with expectations on the rise for next quarter – that helps sustain markets.”
Carmakers around the world are planning to scale back production after an export freeze on Chinese semiconductor company Nexperia threatened to disrupt the industry’s supply chains, with Volkswagen the latest to caution that its outlook depends on sufficient supply of chips.
Consumer trends are in focus with Chipotle lowering projections for a third time this year as customer traffic fell, while eBay gave a weak profit outlook for the holiday period. In Europe, Carlsberg sees lower beer sales on weaker consumer demand and Remy Cointreau cut its outlook amid subdued demand across markets including China, Europe and the US.
European stocks fell as investors responded to a busy roster of earnings and looked ahead to an interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Drinkmaker Campari leads gains on the Stoxx 600 after a strong report, while at the other end of the index, weaker results hurt the shares of Norwegian defense group Kongsberg and advertising agency WPP. Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% to 573.49 with 374 members down, 216 up, and 10 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Campari jumps as much as 9.6% and was the best performing stock on the Stoxx 600 after the Italian spirits group announced surprising progress in terms of profitability despite disappointing sales for its Aperol brand
- Jeromino Martins jumps as much as 8.1% after retailer reported higher-than-expected profitability in 3Q. For analysts it shows that the company was able to mitigate slowing like-for-like sales in Poland by higher cost discipline
- Lufthansa shares rise as much as 5.4%, the most since June 24. The German flag carrier reiterated its expectation for a significant increase in full-year adjusted Ebit and reported a slight profit beat in the third quarter
- Raiffeisen shares rise as much as 5.9% after the Austrian lender delivers consensus-beating third-quarter results; KBW sees a good set of results supported by another quarter of benign asset quality
- Airbus gains as much as 2.7%, setting a new record high, after the airplane and military equipment manufacturer reports third-quarter adjusted Ebit that beat consensus expectations
- ING Groep shares rise as much as 3.3%, the most in four months, as the Amsterdam-headquartered bank’s third-quarter profits come in ahead of forecasts, largely driven by higher revenues
- Ayvens gains as much as 11%, the most since May 2024, as analysts welcomed the car leasing company’s third-quarter results, which included a share buyback and a special dividend
- Kongsberg shares drop as much as 15%, the most since May 2022, after the military technology company reported Ebitda for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
- Stellantis falls as much as 6.4% as analysts focus on the potential one-off charges in the second half of the year and what they could mean for cash flow. JPMorgan notes that the carmaker’s pricing failed to fully offset FX impact
- Prysmian falls as much as 8% after the cables manufacturer’s guidance disappointed investors; JPMorgan says the extend of the upgrade is likely to disappoint the market going forward
- Credit Agricole falls as much as 3.4% as a miss on costs saw pre-provision operating profit come in broadly in-line with expectations despite a small beat on revenue
- Schneider Electric falls as much as 5% on solid albeit merely in-line third-quarter report, according to analysts, with JPMorgan flagging buy-side expectations may have been more elevated leading into the report
- WPP shares slump as much as 13% to the lowest since 2008, after the advertising agency reduced organic growth guidance that was already slashed in July. Its 3Q revenue drop was also more severe than analysts had expected
- Amplifon drops as much as 6.4%, the most since July 30, after trimming its full-year sales growth guidance, while maintaining its adjusted Ebitda margin goal. JPMorgan says 3Q results fell short of expectations
- Carlsberg shares slip after the brewer reported third-quarter results in line with low expectations, with consumer weakness in markets including China and Ukraine weighing on volumes
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks turned lower after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded a meeting that was seen as easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies but may have been largely priced into assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, reversing an early advance of as much as 0.5%. Softbank and Wesfarmers were among key drags. South Korean stocks gained after the nation sealed a trade deal with the US and Samsung Electronics posted a big bump in profits from its chip business. Details on further aspects of the agreement will be key for the Asian stock rally, with the regional benchmark on course for its seventh straight monthly gain. Stocks rose in Japan after the central bank held interest rates. Shares fell in Australia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher. The yen weakened below 154 per dollar after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offered no new hints on when it might hike.
In rates, treasuries are lower with most yields about 1-2bps higher vs Wednesday’s closing levels. US 10-year near 4.09% slightly exceeds Wednesday’s high, adding to losses that lifted tenors other than the 30-year at least 10bp; German and UK yields are cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across curves. Fed-dated OIS also hover around Wednesday’s closing levels, pricing in around 15bp of easing for the December rate decision. German 2-year topped 2% for the first time in three weeks ahead of the ECB monetary-policy decision at 9:15am New York time. European yields are higher across the curve. French GDP comfortably topped estimates, German output stagnated. Focal points of US session include speeches by Fed’s Bowman and Logan. S&P 500 are down slightly amid evaluation of US-China trade truce.
In commodities, gold prices rising and testing $4,000/oz, oil slipping with WTI sitting around $60/barrel and Brent short of $65/barrel.
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar remains effectively blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 -0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.07%
- VIX -0.9 points at 16.05
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.55
- euro +0.2% at $1.1624
- WTI crude -0.5% at $60.15/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Donald Trump hailed an “amazing meeting” with Xi Jinping that resulted in them extending a tariff truce for another year, rolling back export controls and reducing other trade barriers. Beijing agreed to pause controls on rare-earth magnets and, as Trump put it, buy “tremendous” amounts of American soybeans. The leaders didn’t discuss approving sales of NVDA’s Blackwell chips to China. BBG
- The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely will not pass in the house). WaPo
- China pledged to work with Washington to resolve the fate of TikTok’s US business, stopping short of saying it’s agreed to Trump’s proposed deal. BBG
- President Trump’s administration taps three different funds to pay US troops this Friday: Axios.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan gathering involving a top party leader. Politico
- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the outlook for wages next year. RTRS
- The euro-area economy expanded more than anticipated in the third quarter, displaying resilience to higher US tariffs, with France recording its strongest growth in over two years. German GDP stagnated, as expected. BBG
- Trump ordered nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was in 1992. BBG
- OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO as soon as next year that may value the company at $1 trillion. RTRS
- Gold rebounded after a 5% slide over four sessions as investors digest the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting and sniff out the chances for more Fed cuts. Bullion has advanced about 50% this year and hit a record $4,380 an ounce last week. BBG
- Megacaps following last night’s earnings: GOOGL +8%: Topline accelerates across the board with Cloud, Search, and YouTube all ahead; FY25 Capex guide raised… META -8%: 2026 Capex to be notably larger than 2025 with expenses to grow at a faster pace; 3Q Revenues accelerate and 4Q guided ahead… MSFT -2.5%: 1Q Azure growth beats guide by 2pts (inline with whispers); F2Q Azure guided stable and Capex to grow. Goldman
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi was amazing and a lot of decisions were made, while they will be providing conclusions on very important things and agreed that Xi will work very hard to stop fentanyl. Trump confirmed that China soybean purchases will start immediately and they agreed to reduce China fentanyl tariffs to 10%, as well as noted that they did discuss chips and will be talking to NVIDIA and others about taking chips, but are not talking about Blackwell chips. Trump said the rare earth issue has been settled and there are no more roadblocks on rare earths, while he said it’s a one-year agreement that will be extended and tariffs on China will be 47%, down from 57%. Furthermore, he is going to China in April and Xi will be coming to the US sometime after that, while he rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
- Chinese President Xi told US President Trump at the start of the meeting that it is a pleasure to meet him and they do not always see eye to eye, but this is normal and it is normal for economies to have frictions, while he added that China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi also stated that China and the US should be partners and friends, as well as noted that trade teams have reached a basic consensus and they are ready to continue working to build a solid foundation for two-way ties.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the announcement after the Trump-Xi meeting will be a resounding victory for our farmers.
- China’s President Xi says China’s economy is like an ocean, according to the Chinese state media. Conversation is better than confrontation when dealing with trade. On the Trump meeting: Both sides have good prospects for AI, and the US and China should aim to narrow down list of problems and extend cooperation.
- China Commerce Ministry confirms the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, China is to adjust some countermeasures. Says the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. To pause countermeasures related to 301 investigation for a year. US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
- US President Trump posts “I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China”, “agreed that they will begin the process of purchasing American Energy”, large transaction may occur regarding Alaska.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed after the Fed rate cut and Powell’s hawkish presser, while participants also digested the BoJ decision and Trump-Xi meeting. ASX 200 lacked demand in the absence of tier-1 data and as markets reflected on the recent deluge of risk events. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the BoJ policy decision in which the central bank maintained rates, as widely expected and refrained from any major clues for when it will resume its rate normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the attention was on the Trump-Xi meeting, where the leaders exchanged pleasantries at the start, but were then quiet with no statements provided upon the conclusion of the meeting. However, Trump later commented that the meeting was amazing and confirmed a reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs, while he also said the rare earths issue was resolved and rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
Top Asian News
- Chinese Premier Li said it is necessary to implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development, while he added it is necessary to promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, and meet the people’s growing needs for a better life. Furthermore, he stated it is necessary to focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and deepen supply-side structural reforms.
- HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected.
- China to announce new financing tool to drive over CNY 6tln in investments, via Bloomberg citing Xinhua.
- Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK / 601288 CH) 9-month (CNY): Net Income 222.3bln, Net Fee Income 69.8bln, NII 427bln, NIM 1.3%. Q3 (CNY): net 81.4bln, +3.7% Y/Y; Operating Revenue 181bln, +4.3% Y/Y.
- ICBC (1398 HK) Q3 (CNY): Net 101.8bln, +3.3% Y/Y. 9-month: NIM 1.28%, Net Income 271.8bln, NII 610.9bln.
- CNOOC (0883 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 104.9bln (exp. 97.6bln), net 32.4bln (prev. 36.9bln).
- Bank of Communications (3328 HK) 9-month (CNY): Net income 29.994bln, +0.15% Y/Y; NII 128.65bln, +1.46% Y/Y.
- China Construction Bank (0939 HK) Q3 net profit 95.3bln, +4.2% Y/Y.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mixed but have been moving lower throughout the morning. Traders have had a hawkish leaning Powell and the Trump-Xi meeting to digest. On the latter, Trump sounded upbeat following the meeting whilst the China Commerce Ministry confirmed the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only really Tech and Healthcare leading whilst Media is found right at the foot of the pile. In terms of key movers today; Shell (-0.4%, mixed results and announced USD 3.5bln buyback), TotalEnergies (+2.7%, in-line metrics), Stellantis (-5%, 13% Y/Y increase in shipments though warned of one-time hit).
BOJ Decision
- BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with board members Takata and Tamura the dissenters who proposed raising short-term rates by 25bps. BoJ said real interest rates are at significantly low levels and it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and noted that it is important to scrutinise without any pre-set idea whether the BoJ’s projection will be met, given high uncertainty on trade policy and its impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ stated that underlying consumer inflation is likely to stagnate on slowing growth, but increase gradually thereafter, and is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, while board members’ median projections for Real GDP and Core CPI were mostly kept unchanged from the previous aside from the slight upgrade to FY2025 Real GDP to 0.7% from 0.6%.
BOJ: Ueda press conference
- No pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. A remark that lifted USD/JPY
- Need some more data until we decide to adjust degree of monetary easing.
- Possible to change policy even in the middle of the budget being compiled. Will adjust rate irrespective of the political situation.
- Reason for holding off on rate hikes is due to overall economies and trade policy uncertainties still being high.
- Expect next wage hikes to be roughly in line with this year’s. Want to carefully watch wage negotiations especially in the autos sector given tariff impact.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
- UK Chancellor Reeves has admitted she breached housing rules when renting out her family home, via BBC; PM Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into the incident.
FX
- DXY is flat, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session following the hawkish leaning Fed Chair Powell. To recap, the Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent; it also announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown. However, Powell’s presser thereafter struck a hawkish tone after he raised doubts regarding a December cut, stating that a rate reduction is “far from assured”. Fed aside, focus has been on the Trump-Xi meeting. Overall, the POTUS seemed very positive with the outcome whereby he announced that China had agreed to soybean purchases and alluded to an “American Energy” agreement – still awaiting details on that front. The Chinese Commerce Ministry the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, adding that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. DXY currently trading in a 98.91 to 99.21 range.
- EUR is slightly firmer today. A number of key data points to keep traders busy, including; French GDP (beat exp.), Spanish inflation (slightly hotter-than-expected), German GDP (no growth Q/Q, whilst Y/Y beat exp.), State CPIs (point to cooler than exp. Y/Y print for the Nationwide figure, but perhaps to a lesser magnitude than expected). Overall little move seen in the Single-currency; currently trades at the upper end of a 1.1598-1.1637 range. Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
- JPY is the clear G10 underperformer today, following the BoJ. On that, very much as expected, the Bank kept rates steady at 0.50% – a decision which was subject to dissent by Takata and Tamura. Accompanying commentary also lacked surprises, and ultimately lacked any hawkish hints for the next meeting which may be driving the pressure in the JPY today. Moreover, some additional pressure in the Yen was seen during Governor Ueda’s presser, in which he stated that there is no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD/JPY has been gradually edging higher throughout the morning and trades at the upper end of a 152.17-153.88 range.
- GBP is essentially flat vs USD today. Briefly reclaimed the 1.32 mark overnight but has since been pressured below that mark, to trade within a 1.3182-1.3218 range. Focus on the UK’s Budget at the end of next month; reports suggest that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
- Antipodeans are marginally flat/flat firmer the Dollar today. Ultimately traders are digesting the Trump-Xi outcome and the pressure seen across the metals space this morning.
Fixed Income
- A softer start to Thursday for USTs. The benchmark is holding around the post-Powell lows, but did briefly drop to a 112-22+ base, taking out the 112-24 trough from Wednesday. In brief, the Fed cut by 25bps, a decision subject to 50bps and U/C dissent. They also announced a decision to exit balance sheet reduction, as part of this, the MBA unwind will continue, but offset by T-Bill purchases as/when necessary. The bulk of the action came from Powell, who was hawkish regarding the near term path of policy, outlining that there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle, in terms of continuing to ease. Ahead, we have Fed’s Bowman (voter) and Logan (2026) scheduled, though Bowman is pre-recorded and Logan is on bank research; remarks should not cover current policy as the Fed is technically still in the blackout period until the end of Thursday. Friday’s docket has Logan, Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026). Additionally, we will await the dissent letters from Miran (voter) and Schmid (2025) who preferred 50bps and U/C respectively. Since, newsflow has been focussed on tariffs. The mentioned 112-22+ base this morning came alongside a readout from China’s Commerce Ministry on the Trump-Xi meeting, a meeting POTUS described as a 12/10, the readout from China confirmed that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
- The Fed weighed on JGBs on Wednesday, to a 135.78 low into the close. Thereafter, JGBs picked up a touch following the BoJ. The decision was unchanged as expected, subject to two hawkish dissenters. However, modest upside was seen in JGBs after the statement as it did not contain any overtly hawkish signals. Specifically, this lifted JGBs above the 136.00 mark after the Tokyo lunch break, a move that continued thereafter to a 136.26 peak just before Ueda began. The main market-moving update was Ueda outlining that there is no pre-set idea about the timing of the next hike. A move that spurred some JPY pressure at the time but didn’t have much impact on JGBs.
- Bunds hit on the Fed alongside USTs, as outlined above. Early doors, the benchmark held near yesterday’s 129.21 base and then dipped a tick further to the current 129.20 low, a low print that occurred alongside the discussed commentary from China’s Commerce Ministry. Thereafter, Bunds lifted in-line with the likes of XAU as the risk tone dipped a touch; evidenced by European and US equity futures moving into the red vs the slightly firmer performance seen before the European cash equity open. At most, Bunds to a 129.38 peak but still lower by 19 ticks. No move this morning to a much stronger than expected French GDP figure for Q3, while hotter-than-expected Spanish CPI weighed a touch, but EGBs remained well within earlier ranges. Eurozone GDP came in above expectations, printing at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%) and 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%) following the much better than expected French figure and Germany remaining at 0.0% (assuaging some concern around a negative figure). Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
- Gilts opened lower by 23 ticks, as the benchmark had yet to react to the Powell-pressure seen in peers. A move that extended by another 20 ticks to a 93.35 low shortly after the resumption of trade. Since, Gilts have found a base just below the 93.55 opening mark, posting losses of c. 30 ticks on the session. Newsflow for the UK remains focused on the November Budget, amid reports that Reeves is looking at the early scrapping of oil/gas windfall taxes and a potential 2p increase to income tax; the latter would be a manifesto breach. Note, the attention on Reeves herself has intensified owing to her admitting she breached housing rules regarding her family home, PM Starmer has since dismissed calls for an investigation.
- Italy sells EUR vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.645% 2031, 1.594% 2032 CCTeu.
Commodities
- Price action in crude benchmarks have been choppy throughout the APAC session and into the European trading day amid light crude-specific newsflow. WTI and Brent are currently trading around USD 60.20/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl as the market waits for a new catalyst.
- Spot XAU has stabilised above USD Wednesday’s trough of USD 3915/oz after falling back below USD 4k/oz following the hawkish cut by the FOMC. XAU fell just shy of Wednesday’s low to USD 3916/oz during the APAC session before slowly reversing the losses seen during the FOMC meeting. The yellow metal has returned back above USD 4k/t as the European session continues with XAU currently trading at USD 4004/oz.
- Base metals have fallen from Wednesday’s record highs as the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended with a lack of statements from both sides, indicating a possibility that the talks didn’t go as well as expected. However, recent comments from both sides indicated that the talks did go well, with the US cutting the fentanyl tariff to 10% and suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year while the Chinese will halt rare earth export curbs and resume US soybean purchases.
- Russia’s Lukoil says it has received an offer to acquire foreign assets from Gunvor
Geopolitics
- US President Trump posted that the US has more nuclear weapons than any other country, which was accomplished during his first term in office, while he stated that because of other countries testing programs, he has instructed the Department of War to start testing US nuclear weapons on an equal basis, and that process will begin immediately.
- US President Trump said he wasn’t able to talk with North Korea leader Kim because he was so busy, but would come back to talk with Kim.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said they carried out a lethal kinetic strike earlier today on another narco-trafficking vessel operated by a designated terrorist organisation in the Eastern Pacific.
- Russian and Chinese officials discuss potential war settlement issues, via Tass.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Oct 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 228k
- 8:30 am: Oct 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1932k
- 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3%, prior 3.8%
- 8:30 am: 3Q A Personal Consumption, est. 3.2%, prior 2.5%
- 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Price Index, est. 2.7%, prior 2.1%
- 8:30 am: 3Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3%, prior 2.6%
- 9:55 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Pre-Recorded Remarks
- 1:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
All the action in markets has happened since Europe went home last night with a Fed rate cut – but signals from Powell that a December rate cut was “far from…a foregone conclusion”, mixed tech earnings, a BoJ on hold and a seemingly upbeat Xi/Trump meeting. Meanwhile Nvidia (+2.99%) became the first company to reach a $5trn market capitalisation. Overall this left 10yr Treasury yields spiking by +10.1bps and the S&P 500 (-0.004%) flat on the day even as the NASDAQ (+0.55%) and Mag-7 (+1.03%) powered on to new highs. US equity futures on the S&P (+0.13%) and NASDAQ (+0.14%) are trading higher as I type after headlines from the Trump/Xi meeting are materialising. Looking ahead, the main events today will be Apple and Amazon earnings, along with the ECB’s policy decision, where rates are widely expected to remain on hold at 2%.
In a much-anticipated meeting this morning, President Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, to discuss trade, with both leaders expressing optimism about alleviating trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. President Trump characterized his discussions with Xi as ‘fantastic,’ emphasizing a ‘great relationship’ between the two leaders, while Premier Xi noted that both parties had achieved ‘a basic consensus’ despite ongoing differences. In a nod perhaps to Spinal Tap, Trump said “I guess on the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12”.
According to President Trump’s briefing to reporters aboard Air Force One, the meeting culminated in a trade agreement that would see the US reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods by half, effective immediately. Additionally, the agreement will allow China to resume its soybean purchases and suspend its rare-earths licensing regime for a minimum of one year. Furthermore, the leaders agreed to collaborate on issues concerning Ukraine and stated their intention to eliminate shipping tariffs and fees. Trump has said he’ll be going to China in April. At the moment we don’t have the official China response to the meeting but that may come as we go to press. So keep an eye out for that. As I press send the FT are reporting that Trump has said that Xi has agreed to a one-year trade deal which will be reviewed annually. So that story will develop this morning.
Turning to the Fed, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, with Kansas Fed President Schmid dissenting in favour of keeping rates steady while Governor Miran favoured a 50bps cut. While the decision itself was widely expected, Chair Powell was more equivocal on future rate cuts, saying that “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it”. Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views” within the FOMC, with some primarily concerned about a slowing labour market but others warning that still elevated inflation limited room for further easing. As per our economists’ expectations, the Fed also announced it will end its balance sheet runoff (QT) starting from December 1. On rates policy, our economists maintain a baseline of a 25bps rate cut in December but see the hawkish-leaning signal as consistent with their view of fundamentals pointing to fewer rate cuts than priced by markets. (see their full reaction here).
In response, fed funds futures cut back the likelihood of a 25bp December rate cut from effectively fully priced down to 69%, while fed funds pricing for next June moved + 12.9bps higher on the day. That drove Treasuries to their worst day since early June, with 2yr yields up +10.8bps to 3.60% and 10yr up +10.1bps to 4.08%. Powell’s more cautious signal on future cuts weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 erasing gains to trade more than half a percent lower on the day but then recovering back to flat (-0.004%) by close. And while tech stocks rallied, the equity market breadth was increasingly negative, with three quarters of the S&P lower on the day and its equal-weighted version down -1.11%. The S&P 500 has now outperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by 3.0% so far this week, the biggest 3-day performance gap between the two since 2020.
Then after the market close, we saw results from Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet send contrasting signals on the payoffs from the AI investment boom. The three tech giants saw their joint capex bill rise +89% y/y to $78bn in the latest quarter. But with Meta delivering in line revenue guidance for the current quarter ($56-59bn vs $57.4bn est.) and Microsoft saying that capacity was still constraining growth in its cloud unit (+39% y/y vs +37% est.), this left questions hanging over increasingly lofty expectations. Meta’s shares fell more than -7% in after-hours trading with Microsoft down -4%. By contrast, Alphabet’s solid revenue beat ($87.5bn vs $85.1bn est.) came amid surging demand for its cloud and AI services, leaving investors more optimistic that its capex spend was translating into rising AI-related revenue. Alphabet’s shares rose more than +6% in post-market trading.
Before all that, the standout story yesterday was Nvidia (+2.99%) becoming the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion valuation — placing it above the entire listed market capitalisation of every G7 country except the US and Japan. To put that in perspective, Nvidia first crossed $1tn in June 2023, $2tn in March 2024, $3tn in June 2024, and $4tn in July 2025. It dipped as low as $2.4tn in April this year, making its ascent all the more remarkable. There has simply never been a company like it in the history of financial markets. With Microsoft (-0.10%) also surpassing $4tn earlier this week, and Apple (+0.26%) doing so yesterday, these companies are now more akin to countries than corporations.
Nvidia’s gains came after Trump said in yesterday’s Asian session that he planned to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chips with Xi. That comment pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +1.85% to a new high. As a reminder, Trump floated the idea of allowing Nvidia to export scaled-down versions of its Blackwell chips to China back in August. That came as he also approved shipments of Nvidia’s H20 chips — a less advanced model — in exchange for the US administration taking a 15% revenue share.
Elsewhere, the US and South Korea announced a trade deal yesterday. The agreement includes a $200bn investment commitment from South Korea (capped at $20bn annually) and an additional $150bn in shipbuilding investment. In return, the US has agreed to reduce auto tariffs to 15% from 25%, bringing them in line with Japan’s rate.
On the data front, ahead of the Fed decision, US September pending home sales were unchanged versus expectations for a +1.2% rise, though the annual rate did still pick up to a 10-month high of +1.5% y/y.
Today will be a busy day for European data as well. Alongside the ECB meeting, we’ll get Q3 GDP flash estimates for France, Germany, Italy, and the wider Euro Area. Our European economists expect Euro Area growth to come in between 0.0% and +0.1% q/q, with France flat, Germany at +0.2%, and Italy at +0.1%. Spain’s flash estimate yesterday showed +0.6% q/q, in line with market expectations.
Staying with Europe, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates at 2% again, with recent growth and inflation data broadly aligned with its forecasts. President Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policy remains “in a good place.” Our European economists expect the tone to stay unchanged, though dovish risks include trade uncertainty, energy inflation, and credit transmission concerns.
European equities lagged their US peers for a second consecutive session, with the STOXX 600 down -0.06%. Weakness was led by German and French stocks, with the DAX (-0.64%) and CAC 40 (-0.19%) both under pressure amid ongoing budget concerns. In bond markets, yields drifted slightly lower, led by OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps), while gilts (-0.8bps) and bunds (-0.2bps) also edged down.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, as expected, with only minor adjustments to its policy assessment.
In other overnight news, the liberal centrist D66 looks set to lead attempts to form a new government after early elections in Netherlands. The party is on course to match the seat share of the right-wing populist Freedom Party in a fragmented parliament, with the latter losing nearly a third of its seats compared to the 2023 election.
Asian equity markets are mixed with the Nikkei (+0.25%), the KOSPI (+0.39%), and Hang Seng (+0.13%) higher but mainland Chinese markets slightly lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.40%) is lower. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs are -1.16bps lower trading at 4.06% as we go to print.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, as widely anticipated, kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, with two members dissenting in favour of a rate increase. This extends the pause in its tightening cycle to a sixth consecutive meeting after a 25 basis points hike in January. In its quarterly economic outlook report, the board has slightly adjusted its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026 to 0.7% from 0.6%, while maintaining its projections for the subsequent two fiscal years at 0.7% and 1% respectively. Additionally, it has raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026.
Simultaneously, the central bank anticipates that underlying inflation will reach 2% in the latter half of the three-year projection period ending in March 2027, retaining the language from the previous report issued in July. Following this announcement, the Japanese yen (-0.05%) weakened before stabilizing to trade flat at 152.71 against the dollar.
To the day ahead, the key event will be the ECB decision, alongside a full slate of European data releases — including Germany’s Q3 GDP, October CPI, unemployment rate, France’s Q3 GDP, Italy’s Q3 GDP and September unemployment, Eurozone confidence data, and the region’s Q3 GDP print. On the earnings front, highlights include Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, and Samsung Electronics.
b) European opening report
c) Asian opening report
Fed cut by 25bps, though Powell struck a hawkish tone for December; European equity futures positive
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 02:38 AM
- Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent, announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown.
- Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone around December, weighing on stocks, USTs & XAU while the USD benefited.
- Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10.
- BoJ held rates, Takata & Tamura dissented, favouring a hike; support seen in JGBs afterwards as the statement avoided any overtly hawkish signal.
- European futures point to a positive cash open, US futures are gradually rebounding following Powell and the first Mag 7 numbers; GOOGL +7% after-hours, MSFT -3%, META -6%
- Crude benchmarks faded some of the gains seen after the EIA report, XAU hit by Powell but off lows, base metals followed the risk tone.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Flash HICP (Oct), German Unemployment (Sep), Flash GDP (Q3), Prelim. CPI (Oct), EZ Final Consumer Confidence (Oct), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s Logan & Bowman, Supply from Italy.
- Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Merck, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, Shell, Kion, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, Puma & ING.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks, Treasuries, and Gold saw notable selling, while the Dollar soared in the wake of a very hawkish Powell at the Fed press conference. In the decision beforehand, it cut rates by 25bps, as expected, to 3.75-4%, albeit in a 10-2 decision. Governor Miran dissented for a 50bps reduction, as he said he would, while Schmid opted to leave rates unchanged. It also announced it will end the balance sheet contraction from December 1st; two-way action was seen in markets. However, Powell started his presser by noting there are strongly differing views on how to proceed in December, with another cut far from assured. He added that today’s cut was another risk management move, but going ahead, it is different. Continuing to add to the hawkish rhetoric, the Chair noted there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle [regarding another cut]. As such, a hawkish reaction was seen with T-Notes tumbling, ES falling beneath 6.9k, and spot gold testing USD 3.9k/oz to the downside.
- SPX +0.00% at 6,891, NDX +0.41% at 26,120, DJI -0.16% at 47,632, RUT -0.87% at 2,485.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
FOMC
- Overall, a hawkish reaction was seen following Chair Powell with T-Notes tumbling, ES falling beneath 6.9k, and spot gold testing USD 3.9k/oz to the downside.
- Fed cut rates by 25bps as expected to 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters as Miran voted for a 50bps cut and Schmid voted for unchanged. Fed said it is ending the drawdown of its balance sheet and is to reinvest MBS proceeds into Treasury bills from December 1st and said available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, while job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August. Fed noted that more recent indicators are consistent with these developments and stated that inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Fed also said the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months. Furthermore, it maintained guidance that in considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
- Fed Chair Powell reiterated that data available suggests the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting, while he noted there are different views on how to proceed in December and that another cut in December is far from assured.
- Fed Chair Powell reiterated in the Q&A that a reduction in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it, and that there is tension between two goals, while no decision has been made for December, and they had strongly differing views. Fed Chair Powell said the latest cut was risk management, but going forward, it is a different thing, as well as noted that the Fed cannot address both employment and inflation risks with its one tool, and that policymakers have different forecasts and have different risk tolerances.
- Fed Chair Powell said for the latest rate cut, it was a strong, solid vote, and the different views at the FOMC were about the future. Powell also stated that at a certain point, they will want reserves to gradually start growing, and will be adding some reserves at a certain point, but want to move the balance sheet to shorter-duration and have not decided on an endpoint. Fed Chair Powell, when asked about why they wouldn’t cut in December aside from the lack of data, replied that there are many estimates on the neutral rate level on the committee, and some think it is time to take a step back, while he added they have moved 150bps already. Furthermore, he said there is a sense from some to pause, but a sense from others to go ahead with rate cuts.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi was amazing and a lot of decisions were made, while they will be providing conclusions on very important things and agreed that Xi will work very hard to stop fentanyl. Trump confirmed that China soybean purchases will start immediately and they agreed to reduce China fentanyl tariffs to 10%, as well as noted that they did discuss chips and will be talking to NVIDIA and others about taking chips, but are not talking about Blackwell chips. Trump said the rare earth issue has been settled and there are no more roadblocks on rare earths, while he said it’s a one-year agreement that will be extended and tariffs on China will be 47%, down from 57%. Furthermore, he is going to China in April and Xi will be coming to the US sometime after that, while he rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
- Chinese President Xi told US President Trump at the start of the meeting that it is a pleasure to meet him and they do not always see eye to eye, but this is normal and it is normal for economies to have frictions, while he added that China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi also stated that China and the US should be partners and friends, as well as noted that trade teams have reached a basic consensus and they are ready to continue working to build a solid foundation for two-way ties.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the announcement after the Trump-Xi meeting will be a resounding victory for our farmers.
- US Senate Minority Leader Schumer and other democratic Senators urge US President Trump not to lift restrictions on AI chips and American tech in pursuit of a China trade deal.
- US President Trump posted that “South Korea has agreed to pay the USA 350 Billion Dollars for a lowering of the Tariffs charged against them by the United States. Additionally, they have agreed to buy our Oil and Gas in vast quantities, and investments into our Country by wealthy South Korean Companies and Businessmen will exceed 600 Billion Dollars. Our Military Alliance is stronger than ever before and, based on that, I have given them approval to build a Nuclear Powered Submarine, rather than the old fashioned, and far less nimble, diesel powered Submarines that they have now. A great trip, with a great Prime Minister!”
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump’s administration taps three different funds to pay US troops this Friday, according to Axios.
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 2.87 (exp. 2.30), Rev. 102.3bln (exp. 99.73bln); shares rose 7% after-market.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.13 (exp. 3.67), Rev. 77.7bln (exp. 75.40bln); shares fell 3% after-market
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q3 (USD) EPS 1.05 (exp. 6.76), Rev. 51.2bln (exp. 49.35bln), includes one-time non-cash income tax charge of USD 15.93bln; shares fell 6% after-market.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed after the Fed rate cut and Powell’s hawkish presser, while participants also digested the BoJ decision and Trump-Xi meeting.
- ASX 200 lacked demand in the absence of tier-1 data and as markets reflected on the recent deluge of risk events.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the BoJ policy decision in which the central bank maintained rates, as widely expected and refrained from any major clues for when it will resume its rate normalisation.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the attention was on the Trump-Xi meeting, where the leaders exchanged pleasantries at the start, but were then quiet with no statements provided upon the conclusion of the meeting. However, Trump later commented that the meeting was amazing and confirmed a reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs, while he also said the rare earths issue was resolved and rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
- US equity futures gradually rebounded from the prior day’s trough following the FOMC, Powell presser and the first batch of Mag 7 earnings, while there was a bout of selling seen after the initial silence from both sides following the Trump-Xi meeting.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY took a breather overnight and held on to most of the spoils seen in the aftermath of the FOMC where the Fed cut rates by 25bps as expected and announced it will end the balance sheet contraction from December 1st, while there were hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell at the post-meeting presser in which he downplayed market expectations of another cut in December which he said was far from assured.
- EUR/USD nursed some of its recent losses after recovering from a brief dip beneath the 1.1600 handle, while participants also look ahead to today’s ECB meeting and a slew of data releases from the bloc, including Q3 GDP.
- GBP/USD just about reclaimed the 1.32 status after retreating yesterday amid the dollar strength while it was reported that UK PM Starmer left the door open for potential tax hikes in November’s budget, as he refused to rule out increases to income tax, national insurance or VAT.
- USD/JPY traded indecisively with markets tentative throughout the day amid the BoJ policy meeting and Trump-Xi talks.
- Antipodeans nursed some of the Powell-triggered losses against the dollar as the focus turned to the US-China summit.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0864 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0843).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures languished around the prior day’s lows after bear flattening yesterday in reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s push-back against a December rate cut, while the US also sold USD 30bln of 2-year FRNs at a high discount margin of 0.190% on Wednesday.
- Bund futures retreated in sympathy with US counterparts, while participants await German GDP, unemployment and inflation.
- 10yr JGB futures rebounded from early losses and reclaimed the 136.00 level with support seen in the aftermath of the BoJ policy decision where the central bank kept rates unchanged and refrained from any overtly hawkish signals.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lacklustre after fading the gains seen from yesterday’s bullish inventory data.
- Spot gold nursed some of the post-FOMC losses after declining amid a firmer buck and a hawkish Powell.
- Copper futures declined in choppy trade amid the recent deluge of key risk events.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin wiped out early gains and dipped beneath USD 109k as markets were briefly rattled by the initial silence following the Trump-Xi meeting.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with board members Takata and Tamura the dissenters who proposed raising short-term rates by 25bps. BoJ said real interest rates are at significantly low levels and it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and noted that it is important to scrutinise without any pre-set idea whether the BoJ’s projection will be met, given high uncertainty on trade policy and its impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ stated that underlying consumer inflation is likely to stagnate on slowing growth, but increase gradually thereafter, and is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, while board members’ median projections for Real GDP and Core CPI were mostly kept unchanged from the previous aside from the slight upgrade to FY2025 Real GDP to 0.7% from 0.6%.
- Chinese Premier Li said it is necessary to implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development, while he added it is necessary to promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, and meet the people’s growing needs for a better life. Furthermore, he stated it is necessary to focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and deepen supply-side structural reforms.
- HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected.
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
- US President Trump posted that the US has more nuclear weapons than any other country, which was accomplished during his first term in office, while he stated that because of other countries testing programs, he has instructed the Department of War to start testing US nuclear weapons on an equal basis, and that process will begin immediately.
- US President Trump said he wasn’t able to talk with North Korea leader Kim because he was so busy, but would come back to talk with Kim.
- US Defense Secretary Hegseth said they carried out a lethal kinetic strike earlier today on another narco-trafficking vessel operated by a designated terrorist organisation in the Eastern Pacific.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT.
- UK Chancellor Reeves has admitted she breached housing rules when renting out her family home, via BBC; PM Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into the incident.
1A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//USA/
2B JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
SEEMS LIKE A DEAL..
‘Signatures As Soon As Next Week’: U.S.-China Deal Close, Bessent Unveils Major Victory For American Farmers
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 08:50 AM
Update (0850ET):
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined several new developments from the Trump-Xi trade discussions during an appearance on Fox News’ “Mornings with Maria” with Maria Bartiromo just moments ago.
Bessent revealed that China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans per year for the next three years, with other countries expected to buy an additional 19 million metric tons, and that formal deal-signing could occur as soon as next week. He said China will begin by purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this harvest season.
On the security front, the U.S. agreed to cut in half its fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to reduce precursor chemical flows fueling the U.S. fentanyl drug death overdose crisis (killing 100,000 Americans per year). Washington will also suspend a pending rule expanding the Entity List as part of this goodwill effort. Bessent further noted that President Xi unilaterally expressed interest in a U.S. pipeline project in Alaska, highlighting potential new avenues for energy cooperation.
On energy, Bessent acknowledged that the U.S. currently trails China in nuclear power development but vowed it will catch up, emphasizing that it is now “all hands on deck” for America’s nuclear renaissance.
Here are Bessent’s most important headlines:
- CHINA TO BUY AT LEAST 25M METRIC TONS OF SOY PER YEAR
- CHINA 25M METRIC TONS PER YEAR FOR NEXT THREE YEARS
- OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BUY 19 M METRIC TONES OF U.S. SOYBEANS
- CHINA DEAL SIGNATURES POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK
- EXPECT TIKTOK DEAL TO GO FORWARD IN WEEKS, MONTHS
- U.S. AGREED TO CUT IN HALF ITS FENTANYL RELATED TARIFF ON CHINESE GOODS IN RETURN FOR REDUCING FENTANYL PRECURSOR CHEMICAL FLOWS TO U.S.
- CHINA COMMITTED TO REDUCING PRECURSOR FLOW ON FENTANYL
- U.S. SUSPENDING NEW RULE ON ENTITY LIST
- CHINA’S XI UNILATERALLY EXPRESSED INTEREST IN U.S. PIPELINE PROJECT IN ALASKA
- U.S. IS BEHIND CHINA ON NUCLEAR POWER BUT WILL CATCH UP
- IT’S ALL HANDS ON DECK FOR NUCLEAR POWER
Watch Bessent on Fox: U.S.-China Trade Deal expected to be Signed as Early as Next Week
. . .
Asian and European equities and U.S. stock futures were mixed after the big event this week unfolded overnight, with a critical trade meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that yielded a wide range of expected concessions.
Trump said he had an “amazing meeting” with Xi and would immediately slash China’s fentanyl tariffs to 10%. He added that China would resume soybean purchases from American farmers. In other positive developments, Beijing agreed to suspend rare-earths export controls for one year, while Washington would dial back blacklisting subsidiaries linked to Chinese firms. Also, both sides agreed to remove certain shipping tariffs and fees.
“I guess, on the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was at a 12,” Trump said, adding, “You know, just the whole relationship is very, very important. I think it was very good.”
Here are the most critical developments from the Trump-Xi meeting held on the sidelines of the APEC Summit:
- Beijing to Resume Massive U.S. Soybean Purchases After “Amazing” Trump-Xi Summit
- China Suspends Rare-Earths Export Curbs for One Year
- Trump Immediately Cuts China’s fentanyl tariffs to 10%
- Beijing Vows to Resolve TikTok Dispute With Trump Administration
- U.S. to Pause Rule Targeting Subsidiaries of Blacklisted Chinese Firms
- Trump Discussed Chinese Access to Nvidia’s AI chips but indicated he won’t grant access to Blackwell line
An extended summary of the Trump-Xi meeting (courtesy of Bloomberg Top Live Blogs):
- The big event was the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, their first in-person summit after six years. The two agreed to enact a tariff truce, roll back export controls and ease other trade barriers.
- The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl from 20% to 10%, a win for Beijing that should boost its export competitiveness.
- Trump also said China will buy “tremendous amounts” of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods, offering relief to American farmers.
- The pair agreed China will pause sweeping controls on rare earth exports in exchange for what Beijing said was a U.S. agreement to roll back an expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies. The U.S. is also extending a pause on some reciprocal tariffs for a year, Beijing said, adding it will work with Washington to resolve issues related to TikTok.
- Trump spoke highly of Xi and their talks, rating the meeting a 12 out of 10. He expressed optimism that China will ramp up investments in the U.S. and said he’ll visit China in April. Beijing says the U.S. has invited Xi to visit the U.S.
- Meanwhile, Trump approved South Korea’s request to build a nuclear-powered submarine at an American shipyard, a move President Lee Jae Myung said would strengthen Seoul’s ability to track North Korean and Chinese vessels and ease the burden on U.S. forces. Lee’s office later clarified he was referring to vessels in waters near North Korea and China, not targeting specific countries.
Xi commented on the trade talks, saying: “We do not always see eye-to-eye with each other, and it is normal for the two leading economies of the world to have frictions now and then. He added, “And in the face of wind, waves and challenges, you and I, at the helm of Chinese relations, should stay the right course and ensure the steady sailing forward of the giant ship of China-US relations.”
Trump left South Korea with striking trade concessions from China, or, put another way, a tactical truce rather than a long-term deal.
“Trump-Xi meeting positive rhetoric but minimal substance beyond what the market already expected,” Goldman Sachs Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky told clients.
Privorotsky noted:
“U.S. Agreed to cut China tariff rate by 10% on Fentanyl progress. China agrees soybean purchases and 1yr pause on rare earth export restrictions. On the plus side the détente remains firm and capital can flow into China tech without fear of new tariff/restriction. On downside there is not much else substantive. Blackwell was not part of the deal (hence the drop in China tech) nor was TikTok. BOJ feels like nothing done for most part. A bit of travel and arrive in EM especially post the Fed.”
Stocks in Asia closed mixed. European stocks are mostly lower.
US main equity index futures were mixed. This is mostly because Privorotsky is correct, the Trump-Xi lacked substance and no positive surprises.
In a statement following the Trump-Xi meeting, China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing would work with Trump’s trade team to narrow the list of disputes and expand areas of cooperation.
Trump’s Asia tour netted major trade concessions and renewed cooperation with China, with the aim of striking a broader trade deal potentially next year. He is planning to meet Xi again in April, perhaps the time needed to hammer out and formalize an agreement.
Trump via a Truth Social post. The president hints at a oil/gas deal with China…
Over the past week, Trump also secured trade deals and investment pledges from several Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea.
CHINA/USA
Canadian Scientist’s Secret Work On Wuhan Bat Virus Could Have Caused Covid, New Revelations In Book
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 10:30 PM
Submitted by The Bureau’s Sam Cooper,
In his new book Under Assault, historian and former Canadian national security analyst Dennis Molinaro uncovers evidence that Chinese-Canadian scientist Dr. Xiangguo Qiu secretly collaborated on a 2019 Wuhan “bat filovirus” research project that some Western intelligence agencies — including the CIA, with varying degrees of confidence — assess to have likely caused the COVID-19 pandemic.
While The Bureau has previously reported on Qiu’s links to Wuhan’s “Batwoman,” Shi Zhengli, Molinaro’s findings — drawn from redacted CSIS records, open-source intelligence, and parliamentary disclosures — take the case significantly further, situating Qiu’s compromise within the broader escalation of Chinese intelligence collection in Canada since 2000, and highlighting Ottawa’s conspicuous lack of capacity — or will — to enforce against Beijing’s incursions.
His reconstruction shows how Canada’s top-security National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg became deeply enmeshed with Chinese military and bioweapons program scientists, culminating in what Molinaro describes as “a biosecurity collaboration of the highest strategic importance to the People’s Republic of China.”
As in a number of explosive cases explored in Under Assault, Molinaro offers careful caveats distinguishing what is proven, what is plausible, and what demands further investigation. But in raising the possibility that a Canadian scientist may have directly or indirectly contributed to a man-made virus responsible for millions of deaths, Molinaro breaks new ground — no current or former Canadian national security professional has made such an assertion so plainly before.
“Let’s put all this together and consider the implications,” Molinaro writes after laying out the sequence of evidence. “Qiu secretly works with the Wuhan lab overseeing a gain-of-function project about bat filoviruses, and months later COVID-19 is unleashed on the world, with this lab being at the centre of the lab-leak theory. Canada then partners for a vaccine with CanSino — a company connected to the PLA, one of the officials of which Qiu had secretly worked with on vaccine research. If the lab-leak theory is ever confirmed, one has to ask: Did a Canadian researcher who was secretly assisting China have a role in the creation and breakout of COVID-19, and then did the Canadian government try to buy a vaccine from a PRC company that the same researcher had assisted and that has connections to China’s military?”
Molinaro situates the Qiu affair within a broader continuum of Chinese espionage operations in Canada. “The frequency of China’s spying on Canada seemed to be increasing through the turn of the millennium,” he writes, describing how Beijing’s intelligence activities evolved from traditional political influence and industrial theft into targeted scientific infiltration — often leveraging financial inducements and patriotic sentiment within the overseas Chinese diaspora. He traces this pattern through earlier cases, including aerospace engineer Su Bin’s theft of Boeing designs from British Columbia and in Toronto, Klaus Pflugbeil’s alleged sale of Tesla battery technology to Chinese interests in New York— both involving illicit technology transfers to the PRC. In each case, Molinaro notes, Canadian authorities failed to act until U.S. agencies intervened.
Citing former FBI agent Justin Vallese, who commented after the Su Bin investigation, “I don’t know how many Su Bins there are,” Molinaro extends the warning. Canada’s open, well-funded research system — long a source of national pride — has become a global magnet for exploitation by the Chinese Communist Party’s technology-gathering apparatus.
Against that backdrop, Molinaro lays out the case in Winnipeg. He reconstructs CSIS findings showing that in early 2019, Qiu and several Chinese collaborators were approved by a PRC evaluation committee to conduct a project at the Wuhan Institute of Virology — China’s first P4-level biosafety laboratory. The project, Molinaro quotes, aimed to “assess cross-species infection through the creation of synthetic virus strains,” placing Qiu in charge of “overall planning.” It was a classic gain-of-function experiment — the deliberate development of viral strains in a lab before they evolve in nature. Another researcher was assigned “project design,” another “animal infection,” and one, whose name remains redacted, was known to have worked on bat viruses similar to SARS.
Molinaro writes that these experiments appeared to extend the same line of research associated with Shi Zhengli.
Molinaro’s review of CSIS files shows that Qiu and her husband, Dr. Keding Cheng, maintained undisclosed ties to Major General Chen Wei, the PLA’s leading bio-research officer, who later directed China’s COVID-19 vaccine program for CanSino. Chen had worked with Qiu on an Ebola vaccine project years earlier, using cell lines provided by Canada’s National Research Council — an institution that was subsequently the target of confirmed PRC cyberattacks.
Qiu claimed she did not know Chen was involved in biological weapons research, but Molinaro notes she had listed their collaborations on her Chinese CV—then removed them from her Canadian résumé. Both Qiu and Cheng also co-authored papers with members of the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, China’s top institution for chemical and biological weapons research. The Academy even awarded Qiu for “international cooperation,” commending her for “using Canada’s Level 4 Biosecurity Laboratory as a base to assist China to improve its ability to fight highly pathogenic pathogens… and [Qiu] achieved brilliant results.”
CSIS investigators later found that Qiu had travelled to Wuhan without permission from the Public Health Agency of Canada. Officially, she was approved to attend a Beijing conference, but the agency was “not aware of any PHAC-approved travel for Ms. Qiu to Wuhan during this period.”
CSIS also discovered multiple incomplete applications for Chinese talent recruitment programs, which offer large research grants to scientists willing to transfer intellectual property to China. One internal communication between Wuhan and Beijing described Qiu’s role as “very important for our future development,” and she was reportedly promised about a million dollars in funding for several years of part-time work at the Wuhan lab. The CSIS reporting summarized her value to China’s military — citing Chinese sources — bluntly: Qiu was of interest to China’s new P4 lab because she was the only highly experienced Chinese expert available internationally who is still fighting on the front lines in a P4 laboratory.
CSIS concluded that Qiu “developed deep, cooperative relationships with a variety of People’s Republic of China institutions and has intentionally transferred scientific knowledge and materials to China in order to benefit the PRC government.” The agency assessed that their activities “constitute a threat to the security of Canada” and that they were likely to continue if left employed.
Dr. Cheng’s conduct in Winnipeg, Molinaro reports, raised additional alarm. According to CSIS, he facilitated unauthorized access for Chinese visitors to NML facilities, providing passwords so they could download data from the lab’s secure network. Some visitors attempted to smuggle out pathogen vials. One of them, the documents state, “was connected to the People’s Liberation Army.”
“A person connected to China’s military was allowed to roam freely through, and have access to, a highly restricted Canadian laboratory where scientists could work only with a CSIS-level security clearance and that houses some of the most dangerous viruses in the world,” Molinaro writes. “Let that sink in.”
When the pandemic erupted in 2020, Canada struck a deal with CanSino Biologics — the same PLA-linked company Qiu had helped — to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. But China refused to deliver the samples, and the agreement collapsed. “Months were wasted,” Molinaro writes, “which was valuable time in the middle of a pandemic.” He asks the question that anchors his critique: “Did the Canadian government try to buy a vaccine from a PRC company that the same researcher had assisted — and that had connections to China’s military?”
The author draws parallels to previous security lapses. In the Su Bin case, FBI investigators discovered a Chinese espionage network operating from Vancouver that stole U.S. military aircraft designs for Beijing. Molinaro recounts how “five years of espionage against the U.S., assisted by an individual in Canada, and nothing was done until the U.S. came knocking.”
Molinaro concludes that Qiu and Cheng were likely driven more by ambition and funding than ideology. “The fact that Qiu had filled out multiple talent program applications that promised big funds is a strong sign she was motivated to find funding to continue her research,” he writes. The PRC’s recruitment machine exploited that motivation, playing on her professional frustration and heritage.
He suggests Qiu and Cheng may have romanticized the idea that science transcends politics, unaware — or unwilling to admit — that they were serving the interests of a foreign military. “Qiu and her husband would have been easy targets to be co-opted by the PRC,” he writes. “Sadly, that is an impossibility in a world of nation-states with militaries constantly seeking to gain an edge over their rivals.”
END
CHINA/USA
The Trump-Xi Summit Imperative: Why Trump and Xi Must Sign the Death Warrant for Global Terrorism
“The issue of international terrorism and antisemitic terror is perhaps the most pressing priority today on the global agenda,” says Adv. Shraga Biran
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping(photo credit: REUTERS)ByNERIA BARROCTOBER 29, 2025 16:00
“The issue of international terrorism is perhaps the most important issue today for all of humanity, for the Middle East, for the United States, and for China, but also for the Jewish people, and no less for the Arab people,” declares Adv. Shraga Biran.
This week, as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet in South Korea, Biran and his team at the Institute for Structural Reforms (ISR) have sent both leaders an urgent appeal. Their message is unambiguous: the two superpowers must use their unprecedented summit to jointly declare war on global terrorism and antisemitism. For Biran, this is not a matter of diplomacy or public relations but a moral and civilizational imperative. “The difference between the absolute and the almost determines the fate of humanity,” he warns.
According to Biran, Washington and Beijing have almost reached a consensus regarding the issues on the official agenda for the summit, which demonstrates the great powers’ willingness to cooperate. Now this will can be realized in regards to urgent geopolitical issues, especially the problem of terrorism in the Middle East and beyond. “If they have already solved the trade issues,” he says, “they must move to the only problem that cannot wait, the elimination of the terror that poisons the world.”
J
The Miracle: The Two Presidents are Preaching a Global War on Terror, Independently Using the Same Language
Biran believes that the two leaders, who together command nations producing roughly 55 percent of global output, hold the only viable key to ending the “saga that is called terror, fascist terror, and antisemitism.” Their cooperation, he argues, is not a question of choice but of responsibility: “The sheer weight of economic and moral power concentrated in Washington and Beijing imposes an absolute responsibility on them to act together. The American eagle and the Dragon can do it.”
Biran’s new book: When Eagle and Dragon Unite – A Global Alliance to Rebuild Gaza and Eradicate Terrorism Worldwide (credit: Dar Al-Ward, 2025)In fact, Biran notes, both leaders are already united in the global war on terror, having independently used the same terminology to describe the evil of and the remedy for terrorism, for more than a decade. “Thus spoke the presidents,” Biran says, quoting President Trump: “Palestinians are trapped in a cycle of terror, poverty, and violence, exploited by those who seek to use them as tools to promote terror and extremism. Jihadist terrorism is a wicked ideology. We believe that [the] vicious outbreak of militant antisemitism must be given no quarter, no safe harbor, no place in a civilized society.”
President Xi Jinping pledged to “crack down” on global terrorism, which China considers one of the “three evils,” along with separatism and religious extremism, celebrating China’s closed gates for antisemitism of any kind. China is committed to “resolving conflicts through development,” based on “the need to address the root causes and phenomena associated with terrorism.”
The Institute for Structural Reforms: A “Factory” for Solutions
Few voices in Israel speak with Biran’s combination of legal authority, historical memory, and moral passion. At over ninety, the founder of the Institute for Structural Reforms has lost none of his intensity. A veteran lawyer, entrepreneur, child partisan (in General Begma’s partisan division in Ukraine), he devoted many years to developing concrete economic strategies to dismantle the structures that sustain conflict and to developing the capacity of disadvantaged populations to climb the social ladder. He formalized this work by founding the ISR in 2010, promoting structural reforms aimed at reducing socio-economic disparities in Israel. The ISR is positioning its current global appeal as an extension of its core, solution-oriented research. “Everyone knows how to lament problems,” he says. “We focus on producing solutions.”
His latest initiative, known as the Trump-Xi Summit Imperative, extends the argument of his book, Liberating Gaza: Breaking the Cycle of Poverty, Fundamentalism, and Terror (published shortly after October 7th). Now, after two years of war, with the geopolitical script flipped and terrorism in the Middle East on the verge of collapse, Biran is publishing a new book, When Eagle and Dragon Unite: A Global Alliance to Rebuild Gaza and Eradicate Terrorism Worldwide, to answer the crucial question of “What now?” specifically, how the remnants of terrorism can finally be cleansed from the Middle East and beyond. This book is therefore a call for the two great powers to execute what they have preached for so many years – to finally crack down on global terrorism. This work is a direct product of the ISR’s focused research on Poverty, Fundamentalism and Terror and its study of the new geopolitics in the Middle East, lending academic depth to Biran’s thesis. In it, he defines terrorism as the final symptom of a deeper pathology, poverty feeding fundamentalism, which in turn breeds violence. “If you eliminate Hamas in Gaza,” he explains, “you have not eliminated it until you eliminate the international terrorism that continues to pull its metastases.” Local battles, he warns, cannot cure a global disease. “We have to cut the head of the snake, because his tail can quickly regrow.”
Following the announcement of the coming summit between the American and Chinese presidents, Biran has voiced his message directly to Washington and Beijing, including personal letters to President Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff, American Ambassador to Israel Huckabee and Jared Kushner, as well as to China’s President Xi Jinping, Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and the Chinese Ambassador to Israel, Xiao Junzheng.
“Those who justify terrorism in the name of ideological conflicts and political disagreements,” Biran says, “are walking the same path of National Socialism under Hitler. There are no third options, even for high-minded bleeding hearts.”
Biran therefore calls on President Herzog, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Sa’ar and the Government of Israel to join his call to the leaders of the two great powers, as well as to the entire Arab, Muslim and Jewish world, including the World Jewish Congress (WJC), Jewish Agency for Israel, World Zionist Organization (WZO), Hillel International, B’nai B’rith International, Anti‑Defamation League (ADL), The Jewish Federations of North America (JFNA) and American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC); and Israeli organizations including the Israel Economy Leaders Forum (IEL) and Manufacturers Association of Israel (MAI).
Biran describes international terrorism as “a great cancer,” a network that continues to operate even when its visible organs are destroyed. The logic of military containment, he insists, is bankrupt. “The world is paralyzed,” he says, “humanly, politically, and morally.” The result, visible in the Middle East, is a tragic repetition: “It took two years, and tens of thousands of victims on both sides, Arabs and Jews together, and still the terror survives.”
He sees terrorism as “an ideological disease caused by the psychopathology of fundamentalism that knows how to send its poisons,” manipulating impoverished populations for the gain of the powerful. “From the upper classes come those who exploit the poor popular classes, who become cannon fodder and are convinced to see death as their redemption.”
The geography of this despair, he notes, encompasses the entire Global South, around 1.4 billion people. “These are the people living in the darkness of the Middle Ages,” he says. “Seventeen years next door to us, five minutes away, they were kept there deliberately.” For Biran, the failure to confront this reality is the world’s most devastating moral negligence. The existing international framework, he reminds us, was declared by the United Nations after 9/11 but has long since fallen dormant. “The global war on terror is run today on a symbolic budget of about 350 million dollars,” he notes, “and it has not been updated for the new technologies and new forms of terror.” The void, he says, now demands leadership at the highest level.
Biran’s response to this paralysis is rooted in economics. “We are living in a new era,” he says, “an era where human and artificial intelligence succeed in producing wealth.” According to UN and UBS data cited by the ISR, global wealth now totals between 450-470 trillion dollars, with sixty percent of that categorized as new, intangible wealth, intellectual property, digital assets, and technological capital. “This defines the new age of humanity,” he notes, “an age that can end poverty if it chooses.” His proposal is both grounded and feasible: transferring one percent of this global wealth could eradicate poverty and, with it, the economic foundation of terror. Such a move, he argues, is not philanthropy but a realistic policy that would transform potential combatants into participants in the global economy.
Biran’s blueprint calls for the immediate establishment of an International Task Force, to be led jointly by the United States and China. This task force, he says, must launch a campaign of “de-Hamasization, denazification in the style of 2025,” building a new civil authority in Gaza based on prosperity rather than fear. The region’s natural gas reserves and its potential port linking Gaza to Aqaba could make it “port number two” of the Eastern Mediterranean, fueling economic cooperation across the Middle East.
History, he adds, has already shown what happens when despair meets inaction. “Fascism in the 1930s grew from the crisis of 1932,” he recalls. “Roosevelt in America proved that democracy could overcome despair through reform, while Europe fell to Social Nationalism, fascism and antisemitism. The same crossroads faces us now, with one gigantic difference – we are strong, and nobody can push us with our backs against the wall. All my life I’ve preached that Jews cannot allow themselves, anymore, to be pushed against the wall, and I’ve never imagined that it could happen again after May 9th, 1945, the victory day. Today, antisemitism can disappear in our new era of new wealth.”
Seizing opportunities provided by the new era and its new wealth is at the very heart of Biran’s doctrine, which he presented over the years through several books that were published in Hebrew, Chinese and English, including OPPORTUNISM: How to Change the World – One Idea at a Time (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011).
Biran’s appeal also draws on the distinct moral histories of both powers. He reminds the American audience that Trump’s commitment to the fight against terrorism and antisemitism predates his family connection to Judaism. “He wrote and acted against international terrorism and against antisemitism when it was not popular,” Biran says. During his first and second terms, Trump used executive orders to combat antisemitism, penalize universities that failed to protect Jewish students and establishing a multi-agency joint task force to fight antisemitism in schools and universities, cutting hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding from uncomplying institutions. “That,” Biran insists, “was an act of moral courage.” China, for its part, occupies a unique position in his worldview. “China is a civilization where the word ’antisemitism’ does not exist in the lexicon,” he says. He recalls that during the Holocaust, Chinese cities such as Harbin and Shanghai opened their doors to 20,000 Jewish refugees, and that even today, China continues to celebrate the historic cooperation between Jews and Chinese freedom fighters. That heritage, combined with its vast investments in the new Middle East, building the largest city near Aqaba (NEOM, a project that started immediately after a successful campaign against terrorism in Saudi Arabia) and leading the development of Egypt’s new capital, makes stability in the region a strategic necessity.
Biran’s own book is being jointly published in Arabic by Jordanian publisher Mohammad Alsharqawi. It is being distributed across the Arab world, with direct publication in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, and Syria, which underscores the regional appetite for an economic path out of extremism. According to Biran, Alsharqawi is a “true Arab patriot” which assisted the ISR in developing a framework of how Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates could become partners in the reconstruction of Gaza and in the mission to eradicate global terrorism.
Biran contends that the vast majority of the Muslim world, comprised of more than two billion people (of whom more than 400 million are Arabs), are righteous believers who are ashamed of the gangs that stigmatize their pure belief with the stain of murderous terrorism. These gangs are an obstacle to development, progress and peace. “We must recognize,” he adds, “that global terrorism today is an enterprise led by roughly one hundred individuals who can be eliminated.”
“The enlightened world should unanimously oppose global terrorism and antisemitism.”
Across Europe and even within the United States, Biran sees echoes of the 1930s, “populist, nationalist, fascist, and even pseudo-leftist movements,” as he calls them, that exploit resentment to regain power. “Out of 195 countries, 60-70 percent are ruled by governments sustained by populism,” he says. “Fascism today no longer marches in uniform, it hides behind democratic slogans.” He warns that under the guise of modern liberalism, antisemitism and extremism are once again becoming tools of populist politics. “It is shocking,” he says, “that under the title of socialism, which once meant solidarity, we now see groups trying to sell antisemitism.”
His appeal is addressed not only to leaders but to conscience. “The Israeli universities, every president of an Israeli university with standing in the international community, should join this call, against fascism, against terrorism, against antisemitic terror.” Equally, he insists, “the Jewish people everywhere must rally behind this cause. It is inconceivable that the Jewish communities of the world, which gave so much to culture and to freedom, would not join the demand to establish an international task force here and now to fight terror and antisemitic terror together.” He rejects any notion that the decision can wait. “There is always an excuse to postpone,” he says, “but not this time. If they miss this summit, humanity will have lost a historic moment.”
For Biran, the Trump-Xi summit is not another diplomatic gathering but a test of civilization’s ability to act. “The determinism of history does not work overtime,” he says. “There is no determinism of history, there are people.”
He pauses, then adds: “If Trump and Xi understand this, if they act together now, they can bring about the first real covenant of the new world. It is now in their hands to actually do it.”
Written in collaboration with the Institute for Structural Reforms
end
CHINA/USA
Trump Hails “Amazing” Xi Meeting – Trade Concessions, U.S. Soybean Farmers Win, China Eases Rare-Earth Controls
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 07:15 AM
Asian and European equities and U.S. stock futures were mixed after the big event this week unfolded overnight, with a critical trade meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that yielded a wide range of expected concessions.
Trump said he had an “amazing meeting” with Xi and would immediately slash China’s fentanyl tariffs to 10%. He added that China would resume soybean purchases from American farmers. In other positive developments, Beijing agreed to suspend rare-earths export controls for one year, while Washington would dial back blacklisting subsidiaries linked to Chinese firms. Also, both sides agreed to remove certain shipping tariffs and fees.
“I guess, on the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was at a 12,” Trump said, adding, “You know, just the whole relationship is very, very important. I think it was very good.”
Here are the most critical developments from the Trump-Xi meeting held on the sidelines of the APEC Summit:
- Beijing to Resume Massive U.S. Soybean Purchases After “Amazing” Trump-Xi Summit
- China Suspends Rare-Earths Export Curbs for One Year
- Trump Immediately Cuts China’s fentanyl tariffs to 10%
- Beijing Vows to Resolve TikTok Dispute With Trump Administration
- U.S. to Pause Rule Targeting Subsidiaries of Blacklisted Chinese Firms
- Trump Discussed Chinese Access to Nvidia’s AI chips but indicated he won’t grant access to Blackwell line
An extended summary of the Trump-Xi meeting (courtesy of Bloomberg Top Live Blogs):
- The big event was the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, their first in-person summit after six years. The two agreed to enact a tariff truce, roll back export controls and ease other trade barriers.
- The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods linked to fentanyl from 20% to 10%, a win for Beijing that should boost its export competitiveness.
- Trump also said China will buy “tremendous amounts” of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods, offering relief to American farmers.
- The pair agreed China will pause sweeping controls on rare earth exports in exchange for what Beijing said was a U.S. agreement to roll back an expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies. The U.S. is also extending a pause on some reciprocal tariffs for a year, Beijing said, adding it will work with Washington to resolve issues related to TikTok.
- Trump spoke highly of Xi and their talks, rating the meeting a 12 out of 10. He expressed optimism that China will ramp up investments in the U.S. and said he’ll visit China in April. Beijing says the U.S. has invited Xi to visit the U.S.
- Meanwhile, Trump approved South Korea’s request to build a nuclear-powered submarine at an American shipyard, a move President Lee Jae Myung said would strengthen Seoul’s ability to track North Korean and Chinese vessels and ease the burden on U.S. forces. Lee’s office later clarified he was referring to vessels in waters near North Korea and China, not targeting specific countries.
Xi commented on the trade talks, saying: “We do not always see eye-to-eye with each other, and it is normal for the two leading economies of the world to have frictions now and then. He added, “And in the face of wind, waves and challenges, you and I, at the helm of Chinese relations, should stay the right course and ensure the steady sailing forward of the giant ship of China-US relations.”
Trump left South Korea with striking trade concessions from China, or, put another way, a tactical truce rather than a long-term deal.
“Trump-Xi meeting positive rhetoric but minimal substance beyond what the market already expected,” Goldman Sachs Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky told clients.
Privorotsky noted:
“U.S. Agreed to cut China tariff rate by 10% on Fentanyl progress. China agrees soybean purchases and 1yr pause on rare earth export restrictions. On the plus side the détente remains firm and capital can flow into China tech without fear of new tariff/restriction. On downside there is not much else substantive. Blackwell was not part of the deal (hence the drop in China tech) nor was TikTok. BOJ feels like nothing done for most part. A bit of travel and arrive in EM especially post the Fed.”
Stocks in Asia closed mixed. European stocks are mostly lower.
US main equity index futures were mixed. This is mostly because Privorotsky is correct, the Trump-Xi lacked substance and no positive surprises.
In a statement following the Trump-Xi meeting, China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing would work with Trump’s trade team to narrow the list of disputes and expand areas of cooperation.
Trump’s Asia tour netted major trade concessions and renewed cooperation with China, with the aim of striking a broader trade deal potentially next year. He is planning to meet Xi again in April, perhaps the time needed to hammer out and formalize an agreement.
Trump via a Truth Social post. The president hints at a oil/gas deal with China…
Over the past week, Trump also secured trade deals and investment pledges from several Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea.
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
HOLLAND.
Gerrt Wilder’s coaltion deeply weakened
(zerohedge)
Dutch Election: Geert Wilders Suffers Setback Amid Center-Left’s Unexpectedly Strong Showing
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 05:58 PM
Update(1758ET): As expected and explained (below), Dutch parliament looks to take a centrist turn as a result of Wednesday’s snap national election. Exit polling shows the Democrats 66 (or D66) social liberal and progressive political party leading, ahead of the right (or as the MSM likes to say: “far right”). Per the latest:
The centrist liberals under Rob Jetten have taken a shock lead in the Dutch election, according to the main exit poll, two years after his party languished in fifth place in the last vote.
Jetten staged a remarkable campaign in recent weeks, and the Ipsos I&O exit poll suggests his D66 liberals have won 27 seats, two more than anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders who won the last election.
Although the final result is too close to call, Wilders conceded victory and Jetten told supporters “millions of Dutch people have turned a page”, choosing positive politics.
Three other parties are close behind, including the conservative liberals, the left-wing Green-Labor party and the Christian Democrats.
Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) is projected to win 25 seats. The election is expected to amount to a loss of 12 seats in the House of Representatives for PVV.
“The voter has spoken,” Wilders stated shortly after the exit polls. “We had hoped for a different result, but kept our backs straight. We are more combative than ever and still the second and maybe even the biggest party of the Netherlands.”
The NY Times notes, “With no party winning an outright majority, the next step is for Dutch lawmakers to form a coalition, which could take months. It is still unclear who will become the next prime minister, though the leader of D66, Rob Jetten, seemed a likely possibility on Wednesday night.”
* * *
There is an extremely tight race on between Geert Wilders’ Party For Freedom (PVV), which is often dubbed in mainstream media as ‘far right’, and more ‘moderate’ parties, including the Green Left Labour Party (GL-PvdA), center-left D66 and centrist Christian Democratic Party (CDA) – as Dutch voters cast their ballots across the Netherlands on Wednesday in a close-run snap election.
Key national issues include reining in migration, chronic shortages of affordable housing, high cost of living, national security questions in relation to the Ukraine war and purchasing US military equipment for Ukraine, as well as forming a stable government amid an increasingly polarized Netherlands political scene. While Wilders’ PVV is favored, chances are slim that other parties will work with it to form a coalition, as happened last June. The political winds are blowing to the center, most analysts believe.
Polls have indicated that even a victory at the ballot box for Wilders will not easily translate into forming a government. Wilders emerged as the clear winner in the previous election in November 2023, but recent polls suggest his support has slipped ahead of Wednesday’s vote.
Rival parties have increasingly ruled out cooperating with him following the collapse of his own governing alliance last June.
“It’s up to the voters today,” Wilders said after casting his vote at The Hague City Hall, surrounded by security guards. “It’s a close call…four or five different parties. I’m confident.”
European media has widely anticipated that the next Dutch government, which could be more influenced by who comes in second in the vote rather than the first, will more likely to come from the center left or center right.
Polls showed over a third of voters to be undecided even up to the eve of the election. “It’s one of the most important elections, because people need to have their faith restored,” Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, has described.
According to a new BBC review of what’s at stake on Wednesday:
As many as 15 parties are set to win a share of parliament’s 150 seats, but opinion polls suggest four will stand out. Apart from Wilders’ PVV, there is GreenLeft-Labour under ex-EU top official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten’s liberal D66 and the centre-right Christian Democrats of Henri Bontenbal.
And The Guardian reviews some key elements of this election as follows:
- The PVV, which finished a shock first in the last election and formed a short-lived, four-party rightwing coalition, has seen its once sizeable lead fade fast. With nearly half the electorate undecided, analysts say the race is too tight to call.
- Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand.
- Wilders pulled the plug on the outgoing government in June, less than a year after it took office, when the PVV’s coalition partners refused to endorse his radical anti-refugee plans, widely seen as unworkable or illegal.
* * *
Michael Every of Rabobank comments in the following…
In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and
There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.
END
EU
EU’s Former Border Chief Said Commissioner Pressured Him To Embrace Open Borders
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Former Frontex chief and National Rally MEP Fabrice Leggeri has spoken about how the European Union elite exerted immense pressure on him when he tried to defend EU borders against mass migration, including a key commissioner who claimed it was his job to “welcome migrants.”
The Frontex Fundamental Rights Office has gradually expanded significantly.
In 2020 and 2021, Leggeri became the target of political attacks from the European Commission, led by Commissioner Ylva Johansson of the socialist Swedish Workers’ Party.
“When I looked through her CV before our first meeting, I thought: ‘She’s probably impossible to work with.’ But she was a commissioner and had real influence,” said the Frenchman. “[…] At our first meeting, I explained to her what we were doing – developing a European border and coast guard, with uniforms and weapons, and why we were experiencing some delays. She interrupted me and said: ‘You don’t need weapons and uniforms.’ Because, as she said, the role of the border guard is to welcome migrants,” Leggeri reported.
He also said that Johansson threatened him twice, telling him: “Like it or not, your job is to welcome migrants.”
Leggeri was subjected to pressure for attempting to fulfill Frontex’s mandate – supporting member states in managing the EU’s external borders and combating cross-border crime, including illegal migration.
The MEP, now a member of the Patriots for Europe group, shared the details with Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, a member of the Confederation’s European Parliament, according to the Do Rzezcy news portal.
Leggeri explained that initially, the European Commission showed some support for Frontex’s actions, but at the same time, it was increasingly pressured by the proliferation of pro-immigration NGOs.
Their “activists,” calling themselves “defenders of fundamental rights,” gradually attempted to “advise” and “consult” Frontex against counteracting the influx of illegal migrants. They recommended, for example, busing illegal immigrants from the Belarusian-Lithuanian border to Lithuania and Poland.
Therefore, Leggeri advised the Polish authorities against using Frontex’s assistance.
“It was October 2019. That’s when I felt real pressure, political hostility towards the very idea of border management. Previously, the idea was to create a kind of European border guard to support national border services. But from the moment Johansson arrived, various organized actions began against me and Frontex itself,” Leggeri said. He added that George Soros’ Open Society Foundation and some left-wing media outlets were involved.
As he explained, Johansson and Soros’ operatives worked to take over Frontex from within and reinforce left-wing NGO activists who would ensure the entry of illegal migrants into European countries. The idea was to create a command structure parallel to that of the member states, in order to paralyze border defenses against illegal aliens. This selected staff, so-called “fundamental rights controllers” and “independent officers,” went into the field, including to Lithuania, and began intimidating member states’ border guards by claiming that the orders issued by their superiors were allegedly illegal.
end
ECB
ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged As Expected
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 09:36 AM
As widely expected (and previewed), the ECB held rates unchanged (they key deposit rate remained at 2%, the refinancing rate was unch at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility stayed at 2.4%) and also kept its guidance, unchanged as well. In what was a carbon copy of its previous statement, the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a particular policy path; said inflation remained close to its target; and said future decision would be based on risks to inflation outlook.
Here are the highlights from the statement on the Economy…
- Economy has continued to grow despite challenging global environment.
- Robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and ECBs past interest rate cuts remain important source of resilience.
- Outlook still uncertain due to global trade and geopolitics.
And on Policy
- ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Will follow data dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy stance
The statement was rather optimistic on growth, although it highlights persistent uncertainty:
The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”
Ahead of the ECB announcement, the latest data showed that Q3 GDP for the euroarea had come in at 0.2%, just fractionally above expectations.
While the meeting was down the center, some like Oliver Rakau at Oxford Economics sense the doves starting to make a push ahead of the December meeting.
And here’s the reaction from Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank:
“Where’s the smoking gun for a rate cut? Despite the US tariffs, despite all the various sources of uncertainty, the European economy continues to eke out some growth. Economic ‘resilience’ is keeping the ECB doves in check, and the policy pause on the rails.”
In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD – which had been sliding all day – staged a modest rebound from session lows.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
Red Cross en route to Gaza meeting point to retrieve hostage remains
This comes after Hamas claimed that it uncovered the remains of two hostages during excavations in Gaza City on Tuesday evening.
Red Cross vehicles transport hostages held in Gaza since the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in the central Gaza Strip, October 13, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF, AMICHAI STEINOCTOBER 30, 2025 14:01Updated: OCTOBER 30, 2025 16:09
The Red Cross is en route to the Gaza Strip to collect the remains of two hostages from Hamas, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) announced on Thursday.
This comes after Hamas stated that it will hand over the remains of two Gaza hostages at approximately 4 p.m.
The Gaza terror organization claimed that it uncovered the remains of two hostages during excavations in Gaza City on Tuesday evening and named them in the announcement.
Hamas’s reburial and staged discovery of slain hostage Ofir Tzarfati’s remains
Also on Tuesday, the IDF published footage of Hamas’s reburial and staged discovery of slain hostage Ofir Tzarfati’s remains.
The video, filmed by an IDF drone that had been in the area, shows Hamas members placing Tzarfati’s remains in a freshly dug hole before covering the remains with dirt.
They then proceeded to “dig” up the remains and called over members of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to witness the discovery.
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Israel re-arrests Palestinian terrorist freed in hostage deal over explosives production
The terrorist was arrested last year after being caught with 25 explosives he had manufactured and distributed to various terrorist groups.
Israel Police re-arrests terrorist released in hostage deal, October 30, 2025.(photo credit: Police Spokesperson )ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 30, 2025 11:55Updated: OCTOBER 30, 2025 12:56
A Palestinian terrorist who had been released several months ago during the hostage deal agreement earlier in 2025 was arrested on suspicion of production and distribution of explosives, Israel Police announced on Thursday.
The terrorist was arrested last year after being caught with 25 explosives he had manufactured and distributed to various terrorist groups.
On Wednesday night, Jerusalem Border Police and Yehuda Border Patrol, along with Jerusalem Border Police dogs, raided his home and arrested him for questioning.
“The Israel Police will continue to act with determination, professionalism, and zero tolerance toward terrorism and anyone who seeks to harm human life and the security of the State of Israel,” police said in a statement.
Dozens arrested for incitement, support for terror
In addition to those arrested for committing or planning acts of terror, dozens of suspects have been arrested in Jerusalem alone for incitement and support for terrorism since the Israel-Hamas war began, according to Israel Police.
Jerusalem’s “Awareness War Room” operated daily, identifying and locating those who incite or support terrorist organizations and terrorists, both in public spaces and online.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
Fresh Israeli Strikes Again Test Trump-Brokered Gaza Deal
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 03:45 PM
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues hanging by a thread, now about two-and-a-half weeks in, but there are new reports of airstrikes in Gaza by Israeli warplanes.
Israeli warplanes and tanks struck targets in eastern Gaza on Thursday, according to Palestinian residents and witnesses, cited in Reuters and other outlets. Over 100 Palestinians have died after on Tuesday Israel resumed airstrikes, citing the death of an IDF reserve soldier after Hamas gunmen opened fire in Rafah.
Wednesday saw Israel’s military proclaim that it was returning to observing the ceasefire, following pressure from the White House. But Thursday’s new airstrikes suggest fighting and bombardments have continued, and events on the ground have not aligned with the public-facing rhetoric.
Witnesses reported around ten airstrikes east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, alongside tank shelling near Gaza City in the north, Reuters has noted in its latest reporting.
But Israel is still claiming the ceasefire is on, calling the new operation “precise strikes” against “terrorist infrastructure posing a threat to troops” in areas still under Israeli control.
So it seems that the Israeli rationale is based on these new strikes only taking place where Israel’s military is fully deployed, and not in places like Gaza City where the IDF withdrew as part of the Phase 1 agreement called for in Trump’s peace plan.
Hamas has this week communicated its readiness and willingness to abide by the terms of the ceasefire, and says it is preparing to hand over more hostage bodies to Israel – amid a broader search for more remains.
Hamas officials have criticized “a systematic campaign of misinformation” by the Israeli side said to be aimed at concealing “crimes against civilians.”
Meanwhile there are separate reports that fighting in the West Bank has been heating up, which could also serve to threaten the truce deal in Gaza:
Vice President J.D. Vance had said of the flare-up in fighting and resulting airstrikes Tuesday afternoon, “Despite the clashes today, the ceasefire agreement in Gaza will continue.” The Trump White House has been seeking to stabilize the ceasefire, with American delegations going back-and-forth frequently of late to Israel.
Putin Hails Test Of Nuclear Super Torpedo Capable Of Unleashing ‘Radioactive Tidal Waves’
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 06:40 PM
Russia has been busy this month testing cutting-edge nuclear warhead delivery weapons, at a moment peace talks with Washington centered on finding truce in Ukraine have broken down. To review, less than week ago we detailed: Putin Oversees Major Russian Nuclear Drill, Launches ICBMs. And then just days ago: ‘Not Playing Games’: Trump Responds To Putin Testing ‘Invincible’ Nuclear Cruise Missile.
On Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin declared yet another major breakthrough test of a nuclear-capable weapon, this time a state-of-the-art underwater drone named the ‘Poseidon’.
The trial took place the day before at an undisclosed location, with Putin subsequently describing, “When it comes to speed and depth, there is nothing comparable to this unmanned vehicle anywhere the world, and it is unlikely to appear anytime soon.”
He further claimed there are currently “no methods of intercepting” the Poseidon. It is also apparently nuclear-propelled, at least some of the time.
“For the first time, we succeeded not only in launching it from a submarine using its booster engine, but also in starting its nuclear power unit, which provided energy to the vehicle for a certain period of time. This is a tremendous success,” Putin described.
He further touted that the capabilities of the Poseidon “significantly exceed the power of even our most promising Sarmat intercontinental range missile.”
The drone on the one hand is said to be able to reach a speed of 125mph (or 200kph), but on the other can maneuver so slowly so as to become (purportedly) undetectable for modern underwater radars. The drone is sizeable, at 20-meters long and weighing 100 tons.
Russian media visualization of the Poseidon in action (illustrative):
Some Western media reports have said it could unleash a radioactive tidal wave when detonated:
The Poseidon system—sometimes referred to in Western media as a “nuclear super tornado”—is designed to circumvent existing U.S. missile defense systems and potentially deliver catastrophic radioactive tidal waves against coastal targets.
Western defense analysts have actually for the most part vouched for the specifications and stats being offered from the Russian side when it comes to the Poseidon’s capabilities:
The Poseidon, officially known as the Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose System, is a nuclear-powered, autonomous underwater torpedo capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, with reports suggesting yields up to 100 megatons. The torpedo reportedly operates at high speeds (up to 54 knots) and can reach depths of 1,000 meters, as detailed by national security analyst Steve Balestrieri in the National Security Journal. Analysts describe its core purpose as a strategic deterrent—one intended to bypass U.S. anti-ballistic missile systems developed after the U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty.
According to more from the same report:
The strategic and environmental implications are significant. The Poseidon’s warhead is speculated to be a cobalt bomb, maximizing long-term radioactive contamination. According to NukeMap models cited by Balestrieri, a detonation could render an area of approximately 1,700 by 300 kilometers uninhabitable because of radioactive fallout or unleash a “nuclear tsunami” on coastal cities.
The words nuclear and tsunami certainly sound quite apocalyptic when put together, and instilling fear in the West is likely precisely what Putin and the Kremlin are going for.
The timing seems intentional too, given it comes amid months of a general climate of nuclear saber-rattling, and also with the breakdown in Moscow-Washington talks in the wake of the Alaska summit. So far, the planned for Budapest summit between Trump and Putin seems on indefinite pause.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Zelensky Says He Needs European Support To Fight Russia For Another 2-3 Years
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this week that he needs European financial support to fight Russia for another two or three years as the war continues to rage.
“I emphasized this again to all European leaders. I told them that we are not going to fight for decades, but you must show that for some time you will be able to provide stable financial support to Ukraine,” Zelensky said, according to AFP.
“And that is why they have this program in mind – two to three years,” he added, referring to an EU plan to fund Ukraine for a few years using frozen Russian assets. Zelensky said the funds would either be spent on reconstruction or on more weapons.
“If the war ends in a month, we will spend this money on recovery. If it does not end in a month, but after some time, then we will spend it on weapons. We simply have no other choice,” the Ukrainian leader said.
Under a new NATO scheme, known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List initiative, America’s European allies are committing to purchase American-made weapons for Ukraine, though military aid to the country has dropped significantly since the program was launched, according to a report from the Kiel Institute.
Zelensky also acknowledged on Tuesday that Russian troops have entered the city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast, which Russian forces have been pushing towards for months.
“Around 200 Russians are located there in various places – we see this from drones. Pokrovsk is currently the main target for the Russians,” he said.
A day earlier, Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would expand its attacks inside Russia with a focus on oil refineries. While the US hasn’t committed to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, it has recently expanded support for long-range strikes by providing intelligence for attacks inside Russia, according to media reports.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Putin Invites Journalists To Watch ‘Thousands Of Trapped Ukrainian Troops’ In Encircled Zone
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 11:30 PM
It seems the Kremlin wants to show the world just how bad the situation is for Ukrainian forces along the frontlines in the east of the country, at a moment Russian infantry troops have already penetrated parts of the city of Pokrovsk.
On Wednesday in live televised remarks President Putin said that Russia is ready to let journalists into Ukraine’s encirclement zone. Speaking from the Central Military Clinical Hospital in Moscow alongside Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Putin declared that “In two places – in Kupyansk and Krasnoarmiysk [the Kremlin’s name for Pokrovsk] – the enemy has been blocked, in encirclement.” He said of Western journalists, “let them see with their own eyes what’s going on.”
This was offered as pushback against recent reports from Western media and NATO officials who have by and large downplayed or denied recent Russian gains. Also, the Ukrainian government has flatly rejected that the two cities are encircled, saying it’s not true.
For example, below is US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker saying this week that Russia looks “very weak” currently. “At every single turn, the Russians are not showing from a position of strength – they actually look very weak right now,” he claimed.
But Putin has made a rare overture, saying the Russian side is ready to stop fighting in this area near Pokrovsk for as long as media representatives are there.
“We are ready to transport them to specific locations,” he added, saying that Ukrainian leaders should “make decisions regarding the fate of its citizens who are surrounded.“
This further appears an offer to let those who are surrounded, and want to live, evacuate freely – based on a potential deal. “We are ready to stop hostilities for a few hours – two, three, or six – so that a group of journalists can go in, see what is happening, talk to Ukrainian servicemen, and leave,” Putin said.
However he said he fears Ukrainian “provocations” could occur while the media are present.
The NY Times later in the day Wednesday meanwhile acknowledged that “Street battles are raging in the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, where Russian soldiers have entered the city after a nearly yearlong assault. The breakthrough underscores the painstaking pace of Moscow’s military advances, but if Russia eventually takes full control of Pokrovsk it would gain a strategically important bridgehead in eastern Ukraine.”
The publication cited Denys, a Ukrainian drone operator, who described, “The situation is very difficult because a significant part of the city has already been infiltrated by the occupiers.”
“They’re still building up their presence, more and more, trying to completely saturate the city with their forces,” he said. “When they encounter our positions, they engage in firefights.” Russian forces have been methodically encroaching on Pokrovsk since last year, and its capture could be imminent, which would be a huge blow to Ukrainian logistics and reinforcement for the whole of the Donbass.
end
RUSSIA //UKRAINE
Ukraine Won’t Be Able To Reclaim All Territories Seized By Russia, Italy Admits
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 08:05 AM
The top commander of a NATO-member army has finally spoken the quiet part out loud – something which leadership in Brussels won’t bring itself to admit – on a public level at least…
Ukraine will not be able to retake all territories seized by Russia since 2014, even with the help of Western allies, said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto – in remarks being widely noticed in both Ukrainian and Russian media. “Today, everyone considers it impossible to reclaim the territories lost by Ukraine in 2014 and after February 2022. Russia will never give them up, and Ukraine will not have the strength to retake them on its own, even with our help,” Crosetto said.
Russia’s military currently holds some 20% of Ukrainian territory, and early in the conflict Moscow declared the annexation after popular referendum of the four oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
Citing the Italian defense chief further, RBC-Ukraine writes, “According to him, Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot back down, in part because he changed the constitution, declaring the occupied territories Russian in every sense, thereby putting himself in a position where he cannot negotiate.”
And yet the reality is that the Zelensky government and its backers in NATO still appear completely unwilling to negotiate based on ceding territory.
Zelensky has refused to even recognized Russia’s hold over Crimea, and Moscow is certainly never going to give up Crimea and home to its Black Sea naval fleet.
“It is up to them [the Ukrainians] to decide what is the greater sacrifice: conceding territory or continuing a bloody war that could intensify. Ukrainian losses amount to 520,000 people, while Russian losses exceed 1 million. The difference is that Ukrainians are aware of their losses, whereas the Russian people have no idea,” Crosetto continued.
But Crosetto holds no sympathies with Moscow – quite the opposite in fact – as he’s also said that Russia is sowing propaganda among European populations, and even seeks to destabilize and confuse Italy.
We reported earlier Wednesday that the key logistical hub of Ukraine’s eastern front – Pokrovsk, is poised to be captured by the Russian army, given its infantry forces are already inside southern districts of the frontline city.
END
RUSSIA
Mystery Blast At Russian Artillery Ammo Plant Results In 23 Dead
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 12:05 PM
There was a massive explosion of unknown cause earlier this month at a military factory in central Russia’s Chelyabinsk region resulting in a high casualty rate. After many days of a search and rescue operation the death toll has risen to 23 at the Plastmass plant, Russian media has indicated in a fresh update on casualties.
The plant produces explosives and artillery ammo for the military, so the resulting disaster was extensive and significant. It ranks as among the highest death tolls in terms of a single blast incident at a military factory in Russia throughout the course of the Ukraine war.
An entire building at the plant was completely leveled in the blast, resulting in people being buried under the rubble, and making rescue efforts extremely difficult.
“The final list of victims of the tragedy includes 23 people,” the regional government confirmed on Telegram, revising their earlier toll of 13 dead and 10 missing. Rescue efforts lasted a week, which involved painstaking efforts of combing through rubble.
A formal investigation has opened into potential industrial safety violations. Given the ongoing large-scale drone attacks out Ukraine, there was initial speculation the plant was hit by drones; however, authorities have pushed back that this was caused by a drone attack.
Authorities have pushed back on it being a drone attack, but this remains a possibility:
The plant is all the way east in the Urals, which does make a drone attack at that range unlikely – though not impossible. A drone would have to have traverse at least half the land mass of Russia to make it there.
Western media sources have authenticated some of the video which emerged in the aftermath. “BBC Verify has located two videos of the explosion. One is CCTV showing the moment of the blast, captured around 3km (1.9 miles) from the sitem” BBC documented. “The other shows the fireball filmed from a car driving down an adjacent road.” But there doesn’t seem to have emerged any close-up footage of the moment of the explosion.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUES
RFK Jr. Exposes the Real Reason Ivermectin & Hydroxychloroquine Were Suppressed
In a stunning revelation, RFK Jr. lays bare the hidden motives behind the aggressive suppression of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine during the COVID-19 pandemic. These drugs—both with decades of proven safety and billions of doses administered—were systematically discredited, not for medical reasons, but for legal and financial ones.
At the heart of the issue: a little-known federal law prohibiting the FDA from granting Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for vaccines if any existing, approved medication is shown to be effective against the target disease.
If ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine had been acknowledged as effective against COVID-19, the EUA for vaccines would have been illegal. The result? A $200 billion vaccine enterprise could have collapsed overnight.
Despite mounting evidence—including 17,000 doctors signing petitions and numerous peer-reviewed studies—officials like Tony Fauci led a relentless campaign to discredit these treatments. Ivermectin, a Nobel Prize-winning drug, was dismissed as “horse medicine,” while hydroxychloroquine was falsely labeled as dangerous. The goal? To ensure the vaccines remained the only “approved” solution.
But why did the attacks continue even after the vaccines received EUA? The law appears to require that EUA status be revoked if a functional treatment emerges. The incentive to “kill” ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine was never about science—it was about protecting a financial empire.
Leading experts, including Yale’s Harvey Risch and Dr. Peter McCullough (the most published physician in his field), have treated tens of thousands of COVID patients successfully with these drugs. Their conclusion, backed by data: Half a million American lives could have been saved.
This isn’t just a medical scandal—it’s a betrayal of public trust. The question remains: How many lives were lost to protect a narrative?
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Despised ‘Monster’ Women Get Head-Turning NewsAn Ohio woman received a life sentence without the possibility of parole Monday for the brutal murder of a 3-year-old boy in a grocery store parking lot last year.In other news, an 18-year-old Indiana resident has agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy to commit murder after authorities uncovered plans for a mass shooting at a local high school.Both cases, covered …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NYC Dem Candidate Exposed in Major BombshellNew York City Democratic mayoral candidate and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani was captured smiling next to Communist Cuba’s delegation, sparking massive backlash. Mamdani, a socialist, has been at the forefront of controversy as the New York City mayoral race heats up. Just recently, the National Basketball Association’s (NBA) New York Knicks sent Mamdani a cease-and-desist letter over his unauthorized use …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Drops Bombshell Medication WarningPresident Donald Trump has issued a shocking new warning about the popular medication Tylenol, urging children and pregnant women to stay away from the drug. The president, alongside Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., first announced the risks of Tylenol last month. Trump and Kennedy revealed that the over-the-counter drug could increase the chances of …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Shocking Trump Admin Murder-for-Hire RevealedIn a shocking announcement, the FBI has arrested a 29-year-old Minnesota Man for allegedly putting out a $45,000 “hit” on Attorney General Pam Bondi.The hit was put on TikTok by an account named “Wacko.” A user who came across the post flagged it.“WANTED: Pam Bondi / REWARD: 45,000 / DEAD OR ALIVE / (PREFERABLY DEAD),” the post read.The “A” in …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Shocking US Tragedy EruptsIn tragic news for the U.S., a fighter jet and military chopper crashed in the South China Sea.Both the jet and the chopper belonged to the U.S. Navy and crashed in separate incidents.Both aircraft were conducting “routing operations” before they crashed, according to the Daily Mail.The U.S. Pacific Fleet released a statement on X indicating that the MH-60R Sea Hawk …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1623 UP 0.0021 PTS OR 21 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS LOWER
USA/ YEN 153.70 UP 0.6767 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3195 DOWN .0001 OR 1 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3946 UP 0.0005 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 29.43 PTS OR 0.73%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 63.45 PTS OR 0.24%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT GERMANY
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT GERMANY
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 63.45 PTS OR 0.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.43 POINTS OR 0.73%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.43 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 17.96 PTS OR 0.04%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4004.60
silver:$48.14
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.94 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.024% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.648% DOWN 1/2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.047 DOWN 1/3 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.166 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.419 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6547 UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1574 DOWN 0.0027 OR 27 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.17 UP 1.45 OR YEN IS DOWN 145 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4430 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.202 UP 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0057 OR 19 BASIS pts to 1.3999
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The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1141 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1151
TURKISH LIRA: 41.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.648 DOWN 1/2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.048 DOWN 1/3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.110% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.654 UP 11 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.625 UP 11 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 3976.90
SILVER AT 10;00: 48.30
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 3.92 PTS OR 0.04%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 5.32 pts or 0.02%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 43.59 pts or 0.53%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 109.90 pts or 0.68%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 40.12 or 0.07%
WTI Oil price 59.95 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 64.35 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.87 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 12/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.153 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.734 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1565 DOWN 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3144 DOWN .0051 OR 51 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4110 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1700 DOWN 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.652 UP 1/ 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.045 DOWN 0 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.056 UP 1.332 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3988 UP 0.0046 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 46 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 60,34
Brent OIL: 64.72
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.096
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 PTS to 4.642%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.610 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.132 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.718 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.36 UP 34 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 41.97 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.61 UP 0 AND 39/100 roubles //
GOLD $4024.15 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 48.90 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 109.89 OR 0.23%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 385.03 PTS OR 1.47%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.220 UP 0.28 PTS OR 1.65%
GLD: $ 363.00 DOWN 1.38 PTS OR 0.382%
SLV/ $44 UP 1.11 PTS OR OR 2.57%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 30.79 PTS OR 0.10%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘
“Wild Moves”, “Chaos”, & “Stuff Trading Backwards”: Traders Tantrum At Lack Of Post-Powell Bounce
WRAP UP;
Equity weakness extends in wake of big tech earnings and Trump/Xi meeting – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 04:21 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude flat, Dollar up, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: GOOG tops expectations; MSFT mixed guidance; META profit miss; US to reduce reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs on China; China to delay rare earth export controls on US; BoJ holds rates as expected, no imminent hike signalled; ECB holds as expected; Hot German Inflation; META looks to raise at least USD 25bln in bond sale, met with strong demand.
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese NBS/Composite PMIs (Oct), German Import Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Oct), Italian CPI, Dallas Fed (Sep), Chicago PMI (Oct). Suspended Releases: US PCE (Sep), Employment Costs (Q3). Events: BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Oct 2025), ECB Bulletin. Speakers: Fed’s Logan; Bostic, RBNZ’s Gai. Supply: Australia, Japan. Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AON, CaixaBank, Intesa Sanpaolo.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks saw further pressure on Thursday with the hawkish Powell still weighing, while shares of Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) were hit following earnings last night, but Google (GOOGL) saw upside. Attention turns to Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) tonight. On trade, the overall tone of the Trump/Xi meeting was positive, with the two sides agreeing to a one-year trade truce while the US will halve the fentanyl-related tariffs on China and delay tech export controls for a year. In return, China will pause the latest rare-earth export curbs for a year and purchase US soybeans. The majority of sectors were red, with Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Tech all underperforming, while Real Estate, Financials and Healthcare outperformed in the green. T-notes were sold across the curve, albeit led by the long-end after Meta (META) announced a USD 25bln bond sale in 5-40-year bonds. Oil prices were choppy but ultimately settled flat. In FX, the Dollar outperformed with upside continuing post-Powell, while the Yen lagged post-BoJ. The euro was hit by the rising buck, but the ECB rate decision had little impact, given it was all as expected. The Pound was pressured with concerns around the Chancellor and growing calls for her to resign or be sacked amid a house rental scandal, but PM Starmer reiterated full support for her today.
GLOBAL
ECB: As was very much expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on the Deposit Rate at 2.0%. The decision to do so was based on the lack of incremental shifts in data since the September meeting and confidence that indicators of underlying inflation are consistent with the ECB’s target. Additionally, the ECB retained its meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach. At the follow-up press conference, President Lagarde reaffirmed that policy is in a “good place” but it is not a fixed point and the GC will do whatever is necessary to stay in a good place. With regards to the decision itself, the President stated that it was a unanimous one. In terms of the economic assessment, Lagarde stated that some of the downside risks to growth have abated. However, the same cannot be said for inflation. Overall, despite some of the risks surrounding the Eurozone outlook (US trade policies, appreciation in the EUR, French politics), the ECB remains confident in the bloc’s growth outlook, whilst cautious of potential upside inflation risks. As such, the bar for a rate cut in the near-term remains a high one. Market pricing concurs with just 1bps of loosening seen for the December confab. The next inflection point will likely come via the next round of macro projections in December, which will include the debut 2028 forecast. In the evening, Reuters via sources, reported that ECB policymakers are preparing for a December showdown on inflation and rates; some think 2028 inflation projection would warrant rate cut debate, others favour giving little weight to any small undershooting three years ahead.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M5) SETTLED 6+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-22+
T-note weakness extends in the wake of the Fed, while the Meta bond sale also weighs. At settlement, 2-year +2.6bps at 3.612%, 3-year +2.6bps at 3.613%, 5-year +2.3bps at 3.722%, 7-year +3.1bps at 3.899%, 10-year +3.7bps at 4.095%, 20-year +4.9bps at 4.629%, 30-year +5.0bps at 4.649%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -2.5bps at 2.880%, 3-year BEI -0.5bps at 2.526%, 5-year BEI +0.5bps at 2.324%, 10-year BEI +0.0bps at 2.282%, 30-year BEI -0.3bps at 2.229%.
THE DAY: T-Notes saw further pressure with the hawkish signal from Fed Chair Powell still weighing across the curve. Meanwhile, also adding to pressure was the jumbo bond sale from Meta (META), who is looking to raise at least USD 25bln from its bond sale, and reportedly drew over USD 125bln of demand. The bond issuance is also mainly fixated in the long end of the curve, ranging from 5-40-year bonds, seeing the curve steepen. Elsewhere, the BoJ rate decision overnight was net dovish following commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said there is no pre-set path regarding the next rate hike, while the statement itself avoided any overly hawkish signals. The ECB rate decision was largely a non-event and very much in line with expectations, but sources suggest there will be debate in December over inflation projections and interest rates. On trade, there were mixed views regarding Trump’s meeting with Xi; a sense of caution was seen overnight after the meeting ended after just an hour and a half, with no immediate readout from both sides. However, both sides later announced that the results of the talks were positive and the two sides agreed on a one-year trade truce. Next week, we will see the ADP data and Challenger Layoffs data, but due to the government shutdown, NFP or JOLTS will not be released. We will also get the next financing estimates on Monday, followed by the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday.
SUPPLY
Bills
- US sold USD 110bln of 4-week bills at a high rate 3.910%, B/C 2.64x; sold USD 95bln of 8-week bills at high rate of 3.89%, B/C 2.88x
- US to sell USD 77bln of 26-wk bills and USD 86bln of 13-wk bills on November 3rd; to sell USD 95bln of 6-wk bills on November 4th; all to settle on November 6th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 18bps (prev. 17bps), January 27bps (prev. 27bps), March 35bps (prev. 36bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 19.1bln (prev. 19.5bln) across 18 counterparties (prev. 15)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 6.2bln (prev. 10.2bln) across two operations.
- EFFR at 4.12% (prev. 4.12%), volumes at USD 98bln (prev. 92bln) on October 29th.
- SOFR at 4.27% (prev. 4.31%), volumes at USD 3.061tln (prev. 3.067tln) on October 29th. Remains above the top-end of the Fed Funds target range on that date.
CRUDE
WTI (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.09 HIGHER AT 60.57/BBL; BRENT (Z5) SETTLED USD 0.08 HIGHER AT 65.00/BBL
The crude complex settled flat, in what was a choppy day of price action but within contained ranges. The main story in the wake of hawkish Powell, was Mag-7 earnings and Xi/Trump meeting, whereby the latter noted the meeting was amazing and lots of decisions were made. Trump rated it a 12/10, and confirmed that the US-China agreed on a 1-year trade truce. Elsewhere, energy-specific newsflow was fairly sparse, with Hamas/Israel tensions continuing to mount, although Hamas said it would hand over the bodies of two dead hostages, which it stuck to. Little else was fresh, ahead of Baker Hughes and a slew of large oil company earnings on Friday, from the likes of Chevron and Exxon. WTI traded between USD 59.64-60.79/bbl and Brent between USD 64.06-65.15/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.99% at 6,822, NDX -1.47% at 25,735, DJI -0.23% at 47,522, RUT -0.76% at 2,466
SECTORS: Real Estate +0.66%, Financials +0.34%, Health +0.25%, Consumer Staples +0.02%, Industrials -0.22%, Utilities -0.38%, Energy -0.68%, Materials -0.99%, Technology -1.38%, Communication Services -2.08%, Consumer Discretionary -2.51%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.15% at 5,697, Dax 40 +0.06% at 24,139, FTSE 100 +0.04% at 9,760, CAC 40 -0.53% at 8,157, FTSE MIB -0.09% at 43,202, IBEX 35 -0.72% at 16,034, PSI +0.73% at 8,446, SMI -0.10% at 12,301, AEX +0.64% at 982.
STOCK SPECIFICS/EARNINGS
- Alphabet (GOOGL): EPS, revenue & cloud revenue topped.
- Microsoft (MSFT): EPS & revenue beat, but some are concerned re. capex; Next Q guidance was mixed.
- Meta (META): Profit way short, but includes a one-time non-cash income tax charge of USD 15.93bln; expects total expenses to grow significantly Y/Y
- Cardinal Health (CAH): EPS & revenue beat with better-than-expected FY25 EPS.
- Roblox (RBLX): Bookings beat w/ strong guidance.
- Estee Lauder (EL): Top & bottom lines topped; Expanded op. margin for the first time in four years.
- Fox (FOXA): Strong earnings & announced USD 1.5bln share buyback programme.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): Stellar report; EPS, revenue surpassed Wall St. expectations with upbeat guidance.
- ServiceNow (NOW): EPS, revenue, subscription revenue topped & authorised five-for-one stock split; Strong next quarter & FY subscription revenue guide.
- Comcast (CMCSA): All major metrics topped & lost fewer domestic broadband customers than anticipated
- Starbucks (SBUX): Profit light & noted Q margins were hurt by coffee prices, tariffs & labour investments in turnaround.
- eBay (EBAY): Weak next quarter profit view.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Top line missed & 2025 comp. restaurant sales guidance disappointed.
- FMC Corp (FMC): Revenue massively missed & slashed next Q & FY outlook.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Shareholders reject the CoreWeave (CRWV) merger, failing to secure the required number of votes.
- Chewy (CHWY): To acquire Smartequine, all cash. Expected to be EBITDA margin accretive. Reaffirmed FY25 guidance.
- DocuSign (DOCU) announced that Docusign’s Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform will soon be available in ChatGPT through the Model Context Protocol (MCP).
- Meta (META): Looks to raise at least USD 25bln from bond sale, according to Bloomberg; jumbo bond sale draws record USD 125bln of demand.
- Canva: Announced the launch of its creative operating system, adding new AI tools; news weighed on Adobe (ADBE).
- United Airlines (UAL): CEO said seeing some economic impact due to government shutdown.
- GlobalStar (GSAT): Said to draw SpaceX interest in sales process; said to work with adviser and weigh potential suitors, Bloomberg reports.
- Upside in Moderna (MRNA) attributed to takeover chatter.
FX
The Dollar strengthened broadly against peers as markets continue to reprice a conflicted Fed on a December policy decision. Also encouraging for USD was the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting. The US is to lower its reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs on China, while China will delay its rare earth export controls for one year. DXY’s gains were helped by broad strength in USD pairs, but JPY weakness played a major role. DXY sits around 99.50, off earlier 99.724 highs.
JPY was the G10 laggard after the BoJ refrained from explicitly guiding towards another hike in 2025. The central bank held rates as expected at 0.5%, with said dovish interpretations having a greater influence on FX movement than the hawkish dissenters, Takata, and Tamura, who proposed a 25bps rate hike. In the press conference, further downside was sparked in the Yen as Governor Ueda said there’s no preset idea about the timing of the next rate hike. The BoJ continued to stress high uncertainty on trade policy and the impact on the economy, and views underlying consumer inflation as likely to stagnate due to slowing growth before gradually increasing. USD/JPY remains higher at ~154.0, markedly off the 152.2 lows.
The ECB’s decision to hold rates at 2.00% was a non-event. The decision to do so was based on the lack of incremental shifts in data since the September meeting and confidence that indicators of underlying inflation are consistent with the ECB’s target. The accompanying statement offered little as policymakers’ views on the inflation outlook were broadly unchanged. EUR/USD was unfazed by the decision, trading lower at ~1.1570 on USD strength into overnight trade. ECB sources via Reuters said some think the 2028 inflation projection would warrant a rate cut debate, others favour giving little weight to any small undershooting three years ahead.
GBP and Gilts were briefly and modestly weighed by concerns over UK Chancellor Reeves’ future as the PM spokesperson said they have received new information on Reeves’ house rental error. The PM had previously ruled out the investigation but still has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves despite the recent development. Cable incurred its third consecutive day of losses, hitting lows of 1.3117, a level not seen since April.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
THIS IS INTERESTING!! CONSUMER SLOWDOWN?
Chipotle Shares Plunge Most Since 2012 On Alarming “Consumer Slowdown” Materializing
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 08:25 AM
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill plunged in premarket trading after the company slashed its full-year sales outlook for the third time this year, now forecasting a low single-digit decline from the previous reporting year instead of flat growth. The downgrade reflects a clear pullback in discretionary dining behavior this fall, as working-class consumers tighten budgets amid mounting economic pressures. None of this should come as a surprise, as we cautioned in our note last week, “Low-Income Consumers Pulling Back on Restaurant Spending May Signal Trouble Ahead.”
Trouble ahead indeed: Shares of Chipotle cratered 18% in premarket trading, adding to a brutal 34% year-to-date decline. It’s been a rotten year for investors as the burrito chain, heavily exposed to younger, cost-sensitive consumers with mounting student loans and insurmountable credit card debt, bears the brunt of an emerging pullback in discretionary spending and waning appetite for eating out.
If premarket losses hold through intraday cash, this would mark Chipotle’s worst down day since July 20, 2012.
“The consumer slowdown is really affecting our business in a meaningful way,” CEO Scott Boatwright told Wall Street analysts on Wednesday evening after an earnings call.
For the third quarter, Chipotle’s comparable-store sales marginally increased but missed Bloomberg Consensus expectations. There were widespread misses on key operational and margin metrics, which only suggest softer sales momentum and elevated cost pressures:
- Comparable sales: +0.3% (missed Bloomberg Consensus est. +0.99%)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.29 (in line with est. $0.29)
- Revenue: $3.00B (slightly below est. $3.02B)
- Operating margin: 15.9% (vs. est. 16.6%)
- Restaurant-level margin: 24.5% (vs. est. 25.5%)
- New restaurants opened: 84 (below est. 90.96)
- Total restaurants at quarter-end: 3,916 (vs. est. 3,929)
- Average restaurant sales: $3.13M (in line with est. $3.12M)
The full-year also disappointed investors by cutting the outlook for the third time:
- Comparable restaurant sales: Now expected to decline in the low single digits (previously forecast about flat)
- New restaurant openings: Still projected at 315–345 (vs. consensus estimate 333)
Rymer also noted that some consumers are trading down from higher-priced steaks to cheaper chicken options, while continuing to purchase extras like guacamole and drinks. Compounding its troubles, the fast-casual chain also faces operational challenges, including digital order errors, ingredient shortages, and cleanliness issues.
Wall Street commentary on the consumer pullback at Chipotle (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen
- Chipotle’s quarterly same-store sales may drop low- to mid- single digits “as traffic plummets“
- “The 4Q restaurant margin may contract meaningfully vs. 4Q24’s 24.8%, based on guidance, due to sales deleveraging and wage and commodity inflation”
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour (overweight, PT to $50 from $59)
- While the 3Q was roughly in line, “4Q stepping down and with slower traffic, more inflation and less price”
- “Stock likely under pressure as 4Q remains tough”
Stephens analyst Jim Salera (equal-weight, PT $48)
- Chipotle’s lowered FY25 same-store sales guidance to declines of low single-digit % versus flat likely implies a sequential step-down in 4Q25
- “Looking to FY26, we believe CMG’s premium multiple could be at risk if the company cannot show signs of accelerating comps back towards the MSD% [mid single-digit] range”
Chipotle’s mounting consumer woes come as no surprise to ZeroHedge Premium and Pro subs. Early last week, we shared a Goldman Sachs survey that found low-income consumers were pulling back on spending. Here’s the chart we were focused on:
Read the report here.
END
This will hurt some Americans
(zerohedge)
Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 11:05 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Premiums for people buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are soaring ahead of the start of the open enrollment period, new data show.
Premiums for people who are buying insurance for 2026 in state-run marketplaces are rising 17 percent, the health nonprofit KFF said on Oct. 28. Premiums for enrollees using Healthcare.gov, the federally-run marketplace, are spiking on average 30 percent.
The enrollment period for the ACA—former President Barack Obama’s health care law, commonly known as Obamacare—will open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.
Factors behind the increasing premiums include higher hospital costs and more people using weight loss drugs called GLP-1s, KFF said.
The increases do not take into account the impact that the expiration of enhanced subsidies would have, KFF said. Congress approved enhanced subsidies for Obamacare in 2021, and later extended them through the end of 2025.
Democrats want a continuation of the subsidies included in legislation to end the government shutdown, but Republicans have said they will not negotiate on the matter until Congress reopens the government.
Most Americans are insured through their employers, but 24 million obtained health insurance through a marketplace during the 2025 enrollment period, which ended in January. Seventeen million obtained insurance through Healthcare.gov.
The average monthly premium in 2025 was $619 before subsidies, or tax credits, and $113 a month after the credits.
More than 90 percent of people who bought insurance received one of the subsidies, which have been available since marketplaces opened in 2014 to households with annual incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That ceiling was removed in 2021.
The new KFF analysis was based in part on data released on Tuesday by the Department of Health and Human Services, which started letting people who utilize Healthcare.gov go window shopping for insurance.
The average premium for 2026 after subsidies is projected to be $50 per month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a division of the department, said in a fact sheet. Similar to 2025, the tax credits are projected to cover 91 percent of premiums for the cheapest plans.
The fact sheet did not mention price increases or the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies. The division did not respond to a request for comment.
States that run their own marketplaces previously released data showing insurance prices are increasing and warning that they will rise further if Congress does not extend the enhanced credits.
Most Colorado residents who buy insurance will see an average premium increase of 101 percent, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. It estimated that about 75,000 residents will no longer buy insurance due to the jump.
Washington state officials estimated that net premiums would increase 65 percent for recipients of the enhanced subsidies if they end up expiring.
Justin Zimmerman, commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, said in a statement that without the subsidies, people “will be confronted by startlingly higher prices for coverage.”
If the credits do expire, monthly premiums will soar by 114 percent on average, according to KFF.
END
VERY TELLING!!
EBay Shares Plunge Most Since 2005 As Soft Outlook Overshadows Solid Earnings
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 12:45 PM
EBay shares plunged as much as 16% on Thursday, the biggest intraday drop since January 2005, after the company issued disappointing fourth-quarter guidance. The outlook for adjusted earnings and operating margins came in below Bloomberg Consensus estimates, overshadowing what had been solid third-quarter earnings.
EBay delivered a strong third quarter, beating estimates across the board. However, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said investors were focused on the disappointing fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share forecast, which could “reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty.”
Snapshot of Third-Quarter Results (via Bloomberg):
Adjusted EPS: $1.36, up from $1.19 a year ago and above the $1.34 estimate.
Net Revenue: $2.82 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, topping the $2.73 billion consensus.
Active Buyers: 134 million, up 0.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 135.1 million.
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $20.11 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, beating the $19.37 billion estimate.
- U.S. GMV: $9.87 billion, up 13% year-over-year, versus $9.36 billion expected.
- International GMV: $10.23 billion, up 7% year-over-year, compared with $10.06 billion estimated.
Free Cash Flow: $803 million, up 24% year-over-year, exceeding the $688.3 million estimate.
The spotlight was on eBay’s fourth-quarter forecast, which guided adjusted EPS between $1.31 and $1.36, missing the Bloomberg Consensus of $1.39 and signaling margin pressure ahead. The online auction platform projected net revenue between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, roughly in line with the $2.8 billion estimate, pointing to modest top-line growth but a softer profit outlook ahead of Black Friday and Christmas holiday shopping season.
Full-Year Forecast:
- Sees adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.42 to $5.47, estimate $5.46
- Sees net revenue $10.97 billion to $11.03 billion, estimate $10.85 billion
“Given solid 3Q trends, we think eBay’s 4Q guidance appears to be set too low to reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a note, adding that the outlook for fourth quarter adjusted operating margin “missed consensus as its strategic investments may weigh on results.”
Stifel analyst said earnings were solid but this report was “overshadowed by 4Q guidance of GMV growth decelerating to +4-6% y/y (FXN), citing tough comps and the full impact of the de minimis changes.”
The dismal outlook sent shares crashing – the most in an intraday session since January 20, 2005 – down 14% by early afternoon in New York.
$100 handle has been rejected for the second time.
Double top?
END
the shorts were right on this one! there is cracks in their armour
Carvana Shares Plunge Nearly 10% Despite Strong Headline Earnings
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Carvana shares are down almost 10% this morning even as the online used-car retailer delivered another quarter of impressive looking headline results, highlighting growing skepticism that its financial rebound may be outpacing the realities of a shaky auto market.
Revenue jumped to $5.65 billion from $3.66 billion a year earlier, powered by a 44% increase in retail units sold to 155,941, according to Bloomberg. Net income rose to $263 million, or $1.03 per share, compared with $148 million, or 64 cents, a year ago. Adjusted earnings hit $1.50 per share, well ahead of expectations, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to $637 million. The company projected fourth-quarter retail unit sales above 150,000 vehicles.
CEO Ernie Garcia celebrated the scale of the recovery, telling shareholders: “Not only is this growth happening at the same time we are producing margins higher than have ever been reported by any other automotive retailer, but it is also happening at a very significant scale.”
It’s a claim the market now seems to be skeptical of.
Beneath that demand, the auto sector is showing cracks. A major parts supplier (First Brands) and a subprime auto lender (Tricolor) recently failed, while delinquencies on auto loans — particularly among younger buyers — are rising fast. Auto loan delinquencies in 2025 have surged to historic levels, driven by higher vehicle prices, interest rates, and overall affordability issues for consumers.
Analysts warn that lower-income consumers are under growing strain. “There has been nothing but bad news recently on the auto sector when it comes to the low-end consumer,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg
Carvana’s soaring valuation has also drawn scrutiny. The stock has jumped 78% this year and trades at roughly 53 times earnings, a multiple more in line with Silicon Valley high-flyers than with traditional auto dealers. That leaves little room for disappointment. “Any stumble in guidance, and momentum traders could hit reverse just as fast as they hit the gas,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial.
On top of that, short sellers have accused the company in recent years of aggressive accounting, cutting corners on title transfers, and relying on financing practices that could backfire in a downturn. While the company has denied wrongdoing and tightened procedures, critics argue the rapid expansion masked deeper structural risks.
Other controversy has followed Carvana since its pandemic-era surge. After becoming a meme-stock favorite, shares crashed 98% in 2022 when losses mounted and debt worries ballooned. The current rebound has been fueled by cost-cutting, slower inventory growth, and a massive debt restructuring — moves that bought time but did not erase long-term questions about sustainability.
Meanwhile, the company’s CEO and his father have sold billions of dollars in Carvana stock.
The company’s pitch is that online scale and logistics efficiency can eventually outclass brick-and-mortar rivals such as CarMax and Lithia Motors. Yet critics argue the business remains capital-intensive — requiring costly facilities, fleets, and reconditioning centers — despite its tech-driven image. As Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid put it: “It’s basically a capital intensive retailer wearing a tech premium.”
END
Trump shows his strength//will not put up with these nuclear tests by Russia
(zerohedge)
Kremlin Walks Back ‘Nuclear Test’ Claims As Trump Orders US Atomic Weapons Testing
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Earlier we reported that the United States will begin conducting nuclear weapons testing again after decades of rejecting the practice, according to a fresh announcement by President Donald Trump Wednesday as he was on the tail end of his Asia tour. He seemed to be referencing Russia when he wrote on Truth Social, “Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” the president stated. “That process will begin immediately.”
Another adversary of note who has done high-profile nuclear tests in the modern era is North Korea. But clearly, Trump ordered the restart of nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of a nuclear cruise missile as well as nuclear-powered underwater drones.
It was on Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin touted a successful test of his military’s new “invincible” nuclear-capable cruise missile, the Burevestnik. Trump quickly called it “not appropriate” and reminded Moscow that a US nuclear submarine is “right off their shores.”
The new Russian missile completed a multi-hour flight that covered 14,000km, and is touted as able to evade any modern anti-air defense system. While Russia first disclosed the test on Sunday, it actually took place on October 21 according to the Kremlin announcement.
But Trump’s warnings didn’t deter the Kremlin, as it was only on Tuesday that Russia’s military conducted yet a second nuclear-related test, this time of a long in development nuclear-capable state-of-the-art underwater drone named the ‘Poseidon’.
“For the first time, we succeeded not only in launching it from a submarine using its booster engine, but also in starting its nuclear power unit, which provided energy to the vehicle for a certain period of time. This is a tremendous success,” Putin described Wednesday of that test. Western media sources even noted the weapon could potentially unleash radioactive tidal waves against coastal targets.
All of this meant that Russia conducted two significant ‘nuclear weapons tests’ in under a week; however, nowhere in Russian statements was it suggested there was a detonation of atomic warheads. But Trump’s order to his Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to start resume nuclear [explosives?] tests could mark a first since 1992 (that last test was an underground detonation) and the end of the Cold War – and has clearly alarmed and rattled the Kremlin.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov is apparently seeking to de-escalate, by walking back the nuclear aspect to the recent Russian tests, describing that given these newly tested weapons only feature nuclear-propulsion systems – and that there was no warhead test.
“If [Trump] in some way refers to the Burevestnik tests as a nuclear test carried out by another country, that is in no way accurate. All nations continue to advance the development of their defense systems, but this does not constitute a nuclear test,” the Putin spokesman emphasized.
According to more of the official Russian explanation:
Russia’s tests of the Burevestnik missile, which features a nuclear-powered propulsion system, do not fall under the category of nuclear weapons tests restricted by international treaties, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified during a briefing, commenting on US President Donald Trump’s recent statements and his directive to the Pentagon to carry out American nuclear weapons tests.
Previously, US President Donald Trump announced that he had instructed the Pentagon to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing. However, he did not specify the nature of the tests or whether they would involve detonating nuclear warheads.
Russian state media has been busy trying to clarify as well…
Needless to say, if each side began detonating nuclear warheads it would be a highly escalatory and dangerous step not seen since the height of the Cold War. Already plenty of nuclear rhetoric has accompanied the proxy war in Ukraine, but so far this has just been confined to words and occasional Telegram and Truth Social ‘threats’.
But it is also true that Trump’s wording in the fresh statement left things somewhat ambiguous, with the words “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis…”. The wording doesn’t itself necessitate explosive testing.
Trump’s Truth Social statement claimed the US has a larger nuclear stockpile than Russia…
But Trump in ordering the resumption of nuclear testing just upped the ante – and hopefully the two sides can find agreement to avoid taking this immense step of actually testing warheads and atomic explosions. This would be bad for all of humanity.
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 30, 2025 Issue 7609 | Independent View of the News |
| Nvidia jumped to a valuation over $5 trillion. Yet its CEO Huang, despite his constant hyping, has been aggressively selling shares. https://x.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1983557353061658862/photo/1 Nikkei Asia: Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, Nvidia’s shares have climbed 12-fold as the AI frenzy propelled the S&P 500 to record highs, igniting a debate on whether frothy tech valuations could lead to the next big bubble…The new milestone, coming just three months after Nvidia breached the $4 trillion mark, would surpass the total cryptocurrency market value and equal roughly half the size of Europe’s benchmark equities index, the Stoxx 600 index… Nominal US GDP is $30.48573 trillion as of 6/30/25. Nvidia’s value is about 16% of US Nominal GDP. China’s Central Bank Resumes Treasury Bond Trading (QE), Making RRR Cut Less Likely, Analysts Say – The PBOC’s aim is to release liquidity through direct bond buying (QE) and steady market expectations, the analysts said, noting that this could act as an alternative to lowering the RRR, or the percentage of deposits banks must hold in reserve as cash… https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-central-bank-resuming-treasury-bond-trading-makes-rrr-cuts-less-possible-this-year-analysts-say Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift We find statistically significant average pre-FOMC returns on the S&P500 index of 20 basis points between 1980 and 1993, while returns on other days were an order of magnitude smaller. Combining the samples before and after 1994 we find that about half of the realized excess stock market returns were earned during the pre-FOMC window between January 1980 and March 2011. We find no evidence of pre-FOMC returns before 1980… While the SPX has displayed a large positive drift in the 24 hours leading up to the announcement, stock returns have on average been zero at or following the announcement… U.S. equities experienced large average excess returns in anticipation of U.S. monetary policy actions taken at scheduled FOMC meetings since the 1980s. Pre-FOMC returns have been increasing over time and have accounted for large fractions of total realized returns in the past few decades… https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr512.html Fed Day and looming Meta, Google, and Microsoft results (after Wednesday’s close) induced traders to buy stuff on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. ESZs vacillated between moderate gains and (3) tiny losses from the Nikkei opening until they broke higher at 21:51 ET. After trekking to 6949.00 at 4:16 ET, ESZs sank to 6930.75 at 5:36 ET. A jagged rally took ESZs to 6952.00 at 9:59 ET. The professional dump appeared; ESZs stair stepped down to 6929.75 at 12:05 ET. The Noon Balloon took ESZs to 6942.50 at 12:42 ET. After trading in a 5-handle range, ESZs broke lower at 13:22 ET. ESZs fell to 6930.15 at 13:32 ET and then commenced the rally for the FOMC Communique’s 14:00 ET release. ESZs hit 6940.00 at 13:52 ET and then fell to 6933.00 at 13:56 ET. ESZs then rose modestly into the 14:00 ET communique release. FOMC Communique HighlightsAs expected, cut Fed Funds by 25bps to 3.75-4% and ended QT as of Dec.1.Schmid dissented in favor of no change; Miran dissented for a 50bp cut“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.”“Job gains have slowed this year;” downside risks to employment rose in recent months“Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.” “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”Lowered discount rate 25bos to 4.0%https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm The Fed: Statement Regarding Reinvestment of Principal Payments from Treasury Securities and Agency Securities… will reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills through secondary market purchases… https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_251029 ESZs spiked to 6944.50 at 14:00 ET and then reversed to 6027.75 at 14:05 ET. USZs sank to a daily low of 118 14/32 (-20/32) at 14:00 ET. Mr. Bond is unhappy with the Fed’s monetary promiscuity! Powell Presser HighlightsRemain focused on our dual mandate goalsOutlook for inflation and employment have NOT change much since last meetingHousing remains weak; reiterated economic view articulated in FOMC CommuniqueNear-term inflation expectations have moved upInflation risks tilted to the upside in the near term due to tariffsEmployment risks are tilted to the downsideAs of Dec 1, will hold balance sheet size while ‘bank reserves move lower’https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251029.pdf ESZs and USZ sank to new daily lows after Powell’s inflation comments. ESZs hit a daily low of 6896.00 at 14:38 ET. USZs hit 118 9/32. Powell Q&A Highlights (began at 14:38 ET)Rate cut in December is far from a foregone conclusion (14:40 ET)‘Today’s rate cut was risk management’Dec 1 gives time for markets to adjust to the end of QTLow jobless claims suggest only a very gradual labor market cooling‘A high level of uncertainty could be an argument for caution on moving’Want to move balance sheet to shorter duration, have not decided endpointLack of data could affect December rate decisionThere’s a sense for some FOMC members ‘to pause here’When asked about stocks, said ‘Fed doesn’t look at any one asset price.When quizzed about feeding asset inflation with rate cuts, diverted to dual mandate focusOn AI bubble vs Internet bubble, “They were ideas, not companies; it was a clear bubble; this time, they have earnings, profits.” Easy Al said in 1999 that the Fed cannot recognize bubbles!Consumer spending is bigger than AI spending (Q&A ended at 14:25 ET) @TheMaverickWS: Powell keeps saying “the consumer is healthy.” It shows how out of touch he is with the public. Powell spends too much time with his bankster buddies. @MacroEdgeRes: Powell: AI is not the Dotcom bubble. No, it’s much bigger. ESZs fell to a new daily low of 6882.25 (-43.50) at 14:43 ET; USZs hit 118 5/32 (-29/32). ESZs soared to 69223.50 at 14:59 ET on buying for Meta, Microsoft, and Google’s results that were due after the NYSED close. USZs only bounced 5 ticks and quickly retreat to a new low of 118 4/32. ESZs retreated after Powell ended his Q&A and hit 6895.00 at 15:36 ET. The illegal late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6942.50 at 16:00 ET. USZs fell to 117 29/32 (-1 5/32). @thehealthb0t: RFK Jr: “The polio vaccine contained a virus called SV40. It’s one of the most carcinogenic materials that is known to man. But it was in that vaccine. 98 million people… in my generation got it. And now you’ve had this explosion of soft tissue cancers in our generation that kill many, many, many, many, many more people than polio ever did.” https://x.com/thehealthb0t/status/1982735994827759763 70% of voters think the Democratic Party is ‘out of touch’: poll https://trib.al/76cpmGF @SpeakerJohnson: The Democrat Party is in the process of imploding — and everyone can see it… After Trump captured the middle and those issues, TDS induced Dems to oppose anything and everything Trump proposed. Dems had no issues that mattered to most Americans. So, they decided to appease the whacko left and champion the issues that most Americans dislike. Positive aspects of previous session Mag 7 stocks and related trading sardines rallied on buying for coming results and the AI frenzy. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds got hammered after Powell was more hawkish than expected. The DJIA declined 74.37. USZs declined as much as 1 5/32, signaling gross displeasure from Mr. Bond Ambiguous aspects of previous session With the certainty of a Dec rate cut shattered, can the AI Bubble keep stocks buoyant? Is gold’s tumble due to inside info about the Fed ‘pausing here’ on rate cuts? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6887.62 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6920.34; 6851.91 @abigailmarone: Dem Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse admits they’re using working families as leverage because “it’s the only lever we have…” https://x.com/abigailmarone/status/1983289422679552170 People that ‘do the work’ recognized years ago that a few big wallets have been manipulating election betting markets to sway voters. Some pollsters have done this scheme for decades. Foreign betting markets could influence NYC election — as data shows pro-Mamdani bets from China, Middle East skewing odds – As of Monday, the 10 wallets betting the most money on a Mamdani win controlled roughly 40% of the market… With those accounts, 87% of the cash was financed through exchanges including Binance, Bybit and OKX, with overwhelming trade volume in the Middle East and China… https://nypost.com/2025/10/28/business/pro-mamdani-bets-from-china-middle-east-skewing-market-odds-experts/ Microsoft Q1 EPS 3.72, 3.68 exp; Rev 77.67B, 75.562B exp; sank 4.2% on modest EPS beat Meta Q3 GAAP EPS 7.25, 6.72 exp; Rev 50.08B, 49.574 exp; tumbled 8.7% on $15.93B tax charge Meta Falls on Increased Spending ($70-72B in 2025) in Pursuit of AI Payoff (Fantasy?) – BBG Google Q3 EPS 2.87, 2.27 exp; Rev 102.35B, 99.85B exp; +7.7% on big EPS beat @Barchart: Nvidia NVDA is now worth more than every foreign country’s entire stock market except India, Japan, and China. (Yet, the inept Powell sees no AI Bubble!) Today – Apple and Amazon close out Mag 7 reporting season (NVDA reports Nov. 19). The S&P 500 Index had an ‘Outside Day’ (Higher high, lower low) on Fed Day. Outside Days typically indicate the established trend is about to end. Bulls expect a China-US trade deal announcement tomorrow at the Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, and October performance gaming tomorrow and on Friday. Reports from the Xi-DJT summit should impact trading. Does the change in Dec rate cut expectations negative the urge to buy stocks for Amazon and Apple’s results plus October performance gaming? Expected results: Amazon EPS 1.98, GAAP+ 1.56, Rev 177.822B; Apple EPS 1.77, Rev 102.137B Expected economic data: Q3 GDP 3.0%, Consumption 3.2%, GDP Price Index 2.7%, Core PCE Price Index 3.0%; Initial Jobless Claims 229, Continuing Claims 1.91m; Gov. Bowman 9:55 ET, Dallas Fed Pres Logan 13: 15 ET ESAs are +8.75 (were -20.25); NQZs are +23.50; Dec AU is -32.00; and USZs are -11/32 at 20:18 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6622; 100-day MA: 6434; 150-day MA: 6166; 200-day MA: 6102 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,122; 100-day MA: 45,051; 150-day MA: 43,732; 200-day MA: 43,656 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6890.61 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5643.15 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6423.18 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6729.73 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6911.71 triggers a buy signal @C__Herridge: ARCTIC FROST DRAGNET EXPANDS +400 GOP TARGETS According to new records provided through “legally protected whistleblower disclosures” to Sen. Chuck Grassley, 197 subpoenas sought testimony, records and communications… “…related to at least 430 named Republican individuals and entities. Some of the records (Special Counsel Jack) Smith subpoenaed from banks, individuals and businesses included: •Communications with media companies… CBS, Fox News, Fox Business, Newsmax, Sinclair and others. •Communications with “any member, employee or agent of the Legislative Branch of the U.S. Gov’t.” •Communications with WH advisors, such as Stephen Miller, Dan Scavino, Jared Kushner, Lara Trump… •Statistical data and analysis relating to donors and fundraising efforts. •Broad financial data relating to conservative individuals and entities.” +1700 Pages / Subpoenas  https://grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/arctic_frost_197_subpoena_records_obtained_by_chairman_grassley.pdf https://grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/arctic_frost197_subpoena_tracker_compiled_by_sjc_staff.pdf @seanmdav: GOP Sen. CRUZ: Jack Smith subpoenaed Cruz’s cell phone records from AT&T. AT&T was ordered by corrupt Judge James Boasberg from disclosing the subpoena to Cruz. Boasberg told AT&T that if Cruz was informed, Cruz would destroy evidence and imperil national security. (Cruz called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached.) @seanmdav: New Arctic Frost whistleblower documents show that the corrupt Biden FBI subpoenaed the bank records, donor lists, and emails of nearly every major conservative organization and leader in the country, including Donald Trump’s campaign, the RNC, Conservative Partnership Institute, Save America PAC, America First Policy Institute, and even MyPillow. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/arctic_frost197_subpoena_tracker_compiled_by_sjc_staff.pdf House Judiciary GOP @JudiciaryGOP: New Arctic Frost documents reveal even further wide ranging investigation by Biden’s DOJ to take down President Trump and his supporters. HIGHLIGHTS: -Arctic Frost investigators utilized FBI field offices from across the country to conduct its investigation. -Arctic Frost investigators requested $16,600 to travel to conduct more than 40 interviews. -45 individuals including, Steve Bannon, Scott Perry, Rudolph Giuliani, Jeffrey Clark, John Eastman, and Mark Meadows were potentially under investigation. -Another 111 individuals including Peter Navarro, Dan Scavino, Jeff Rosen, and Ed Martin were also potentially under investigation. READ ALL THE DOCUMENTS HERE: https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/2025-11/FBI-HJC119-AF-000001-000198.pdf Ex-DoJ prosecutor @shipwreckedcrew: The Prosecutorial authority of the Executive Branch belongs to Trump, not the AG. His authority is delegated to them. If the President — ANY President — is convinced of an individual’s guilt, he has every lawful right to direct the DOJ to seek an indictment of that person with the available evidence. His authority in that regard is no different than his authority to command the Defense Department or the Treasury Department or the State Department… @libsoftiktok: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is claiming that Trump is zip-tying black babies and throwing them in the back of vans at night. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1983555354924397015 The usual suspects are bemoaning that 43 million Americans are on SNAP (AKA Food Stamps) and will lose the entitlement in 2 to 3 weeks. How is that about 13% of Americans qualify for this entitlement and the usual suspects bray that the US needs immigrants to fill jobs? SNAP Qualification per Bing: Your household’s gross income must generally be at or below 130% of the federal poverty level. For a family of three in 2025, this is approximately $33,576 annually… Citizenship and Residency: Applicants must be U.S. citizens or certain lawfully present immigrants and must reside in the state where they apply. How many illegal immigrants have illegally procured SNAP benefits? Because the ‘No Kings’ protest was a dud, leftists will stage a new hate-Trump event. Democrats plan to surround White House with millions of protesters on November 5th …demanding the removal of former President Trump. (Isn’t this an insurrection? Jan 6 treatment?) https://demstate.com/article/democrats-plan-to-surround-white-house-with-millions-of-protesters-on-november-5th Once again, Dems show they have nothing to offer except ‘hate Trump, remove Trump.’ | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Biden’s Jack Smith ‘Enemies List’ Scandal Widens As 400 Republican Targets Revealed
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025 – 09:05 PM
The Biden administration spied on nearly 20% of Republicans in Congress, Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) revealed in a Wednesday bombshell.
Specifically, Grassley released 197 subpoenas that the Biden FBI reportedly used to gather testimony and information on over 400 Republican targets as part of the agency’s “Arctic Frost” probe.
“197 subpoenas were issued by Jack Smith and his team. These subpoenas were issued to 34 individuals and 163 businesses, including financial institutions,” Grassley said, adding “Arctic Frost was the vehicle by which partisan FBI agents and DOJ prosecutors could improperly investigate the entire Republican political apparatus. Contrary to what Smith has said publicly, this was clearly a fishing expedition.”
According to Grassley, the subpoenas included “nonpublic, confidential grand jury material” that he obtained via whistleblower disclosures, as well as financial information from conservative organizations like TPUSA and the Republican Attorneys General Association.
Biden’s jackboots also went after media organizations, including Fox News and Newsmax.
Sen Ted Cruz (R-FL) is pissed, writing on X: “This comes after learning that nearly 20% of Senate Republicans’ cellphones, including mine, were also subpoenaed,” adding “Arctic Frost is the Biden DOJ’s Watergate, and they need to be held accountable.”
As Fox26 notes further, some of the records Smith subpoenaed from banks, individuals and businesses included:
- Communications with media companies such as CBS, Fox News, Fox Business, Newsmax, Sinclair and others
- Communications with “any member, employee or agent of the Legislative Branch of the U.S. Government”
- Communications with White House advisors, such as Stephen Miller, Dan Scavino, Jared Kushner, Lara Trump and others
- Statistical data and analysis relating to donors and fundraising efforts
- Broad financial data relating to conservative individuals and entities
“2day U can see 1700+ pgs of subpoena records shared w me by brave whistleblowers who want the public 2know how the Biden DOJ/FBI was weaponized,” Grassley wrote on X after the press conference.
On Tuesday, newly released documents showed over 160 Republicans, including those in the current Trump administration, who may have been investigated by former President Joe Biden’s FBI.
The House Judiciary Committee released the files on Tuesday, which detail the scope of the Biden Justice Department’s investigation into 2020 election interference allegations.
The nearly 200 pages of documents released are heavily redacted, but show the investigators used FBI agents from several field offices around the country to conduct interviews and other tasks. Investigators also reportedly requested $16,600 to travel to conduct more than 40 interviews.
Some of the names mentioned in the documents as under potential investigation include White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and U.S. Pardon Attorney Ed Martin. Other names include Steve Bannon, Scott Perry, Rudolph Giuliani, Jeffrey Clark, John Eastman, and Mark Meadows.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, told Fox News host Sean Hannity the investigation is “much broader, much more expansive, than we ever thought.”
This is why Jordan said the committee wants a deposition from Smith to ask about the potential political motive behind the operation.
While Smith has been asked to provide closed-door testimony to the House Judiciary Committee, he has demanded a public hearing to address the “many mischaracterizations” of his investigations into Trump.
President Donald Trump had already told reporters this month, “Deranged Jack Smith, in my opinion, is a criminal.” -Fox26
Much like the Epstein list, we look forward to absolutely nothing being done to anyone about any of this.
END
Trump’s Lawyers Seek Dismissal Of President’s Criminal Conviction
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025 – 11:45 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Lawyers for President Donald Trump asked an appeals court in New York state this week to throw out Trump’s criminal conviction for falsifying business records.
Evidence in the case was insufficient to convict Trump, his lawyers told the New York State Supreme Court Appellate Division in a brief. They also said the court had wrongly ruled against the theory that presidential immunity means that official acts cannot be used against a president.
“In addition to all this overwhelming error, the trial was conducted by a judge who refused to recuse himself despite having made political contributions to President Trump’s electoral opponents and despite having disqualifying family conflicts,” the lawyers wrote.
“For each of these independent reasons, President Trump’s conviction must be set aside.”
Trump, at the time a candidate for president, was convicted in 2024 of falsifying business records.
After Trump won the 2024 election, Justice Juan Merchan of the New York State Supreme Court handed down a sentence with no jail time or fines, citing “legal protections afforded to the office of the president of the United States.”
Merchan, who was overseeing the case, had previously turned away Trump’s arguments against evidence in the case and assertions that the president was protected by presidential immunity.
Lawyers for Trump wrote in the new brief that jurors had improperly heard testimony about official acts by Trump, including official statements that he made on social media and alleged discussions between Trump and the attorney general about enforcing federal campaign regulations.
They pointed to a U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2024, in which justices ruled that presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts.
The ruling states, “If official conduct for which the President is immune may be scrutinized to help secure his conviction, even on charges that purport to be based only on his unofficial conduct, the ‘intended effect’ of immunity would be defeated.”
A spokesperson for Trump told news outlets in a statement on Oct. 28: “The Supreme Court’s historic decision on Immunity, the Federal and New York State Constitutions, and other established legal precedent mandate that this meritless hoax be immediately overturned and dismissed.
“President Trump will keep defeating Democrat weaponization at every turn as he focuses on his singular mission to Make America Great Again.”
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
