access market
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XGE: COMEX
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
167 C MAREX 1
323 C HSBC 596
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 84
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 715
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 190
709 C BARCLAYS 200
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 4
905 C ADM 42
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2025: 918 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 91,800 OZ or 2.855 TONNES
total notices so far: 9564 contracts for 956,400 OR 29.788 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 44 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 220,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3469 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 17.345 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR NOV: 11.575 MILLION OZ
PLUS INITIAL 1.245 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
THEN ADD TUESDAY;S 1,93 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
THEN WEDNESDAY;S 0.570 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
THEN 0.080 MILLION OZ
THEN MONDAY’S 425,000 0Z
THEN TUESDAY: 275,000 OZ
THEN WEDNESDAY’S 295,000 OZ
THEN THURSDAY : 10,000 OZ
THEN FRIDAY: 1.245 MILLION OZ
MONDAY: 0.300 MILLION OZ
NOW TUESDAY 0.275 MILLION OZ
EQUALS
17.785 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER.
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 21.065 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
AND NOW NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.256 OZ WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 5.255 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 17.220 MILLION OZ/
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.153 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 10.2938 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3996 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.4126 TONNES OF GOLD.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 74.59 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 5125 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,989 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 75 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 75 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF5051 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 75 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 5051 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.07 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 25.25 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.07
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.22 POINTS OR 0.81%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 454.25 PTS OR 1.72%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1620.93 PTS OR 3.22% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.94%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1126/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1139/ Oil DOWN TO 59.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 63.93 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1126 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1139:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY FAIR SIZED SIZED 2893 CONTRACTS TO 474,390 OI WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/RAID //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST SOME NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1480). WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY AND MONDAY.. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT TO THE SHORT SIDE AGAIN WITH OUR FRBNY AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE TAKING IN ALL THE CONTRACTS THAT THEY COULD. JUDGING BY THE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED LAST NIGHT AT 918 NOTICES FOR 91,800 OZ (2.855 TONNES), THEY TOOK EVERYTHING ON OFFER.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1413 CONTRACTS (OR 41.287 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: SO FAR ONE ISSUANCE:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF 450 CONTRACTS FOR 45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES.
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 131.6996 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 10TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH NOV//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 10 MONTHS ISSUANCE 131.6996 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW NOVEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A VERY FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1413 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 2.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT/ NOVEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS FINALLY A LOWER T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1862 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE LAST 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THE WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER LAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MONDAY, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS GENERALLY ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON OUR UPCOMING DAYS.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS: SEPT THROUGH NOVEMBER;
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE FINISHING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS GOADED OUR SPECULATORS TO CONTINUE ONTO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE…THE RAIDS THROUGHT THIS WEEK WERE FREQUENT BUT FAILED TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE TO THE PRICE WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHING OCT 31 AS WE NOW ENTER OUR MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH EARLY MONTH FAILED RAID ATTEMPTS. SO THEY NOW ISSUED THESE MEGA T.A.S. CONTRACTS AND THAT ALWAYS SIGNALS A MAJOR RAID WHICH ARRIVED ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND NOW TODAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 8 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. AND NOW NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.636TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 11.4468 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.0496 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS.
THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING E.G. NOVEMBER: A HUGE INITIAL 15.651 TONNES STANDING IN AN OFF MONTH!! THIS IS HUGE!!!//WITH QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW STANDING FOR GOLD NOW AT 32.0496 TONNES
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/NOV//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 1480 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1480 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1480 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1480 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
- CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION AND MASSIVE LIQUIDATION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON CLOSE TO CLOSING TIME
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE OCT 31 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, WE WILL SEE THESE MONTHLY MONTH SPREADERS IN ACTION NEXT WEEK DURING OPTIONS EXIRY WEEK.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//NOV
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT// TUESDAY MORNING WAS A MUCH SMALLER SIZED 1862 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THIS MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD YET A CORRESPONDING VERY STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 1.36996 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 11 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
AND NOW NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.636 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 11.4468 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1.3966 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.0496 TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING NOVEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $20.40/ /) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS CENTRAL BANKS (FRBNY + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS) TOOK THE LONG SIDE AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 1,413 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY COMEX TRADING THROUGH TO MONDAY.. OTHER CENTRAL BANKS
TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK, THE BANKERS (FRBNY) WENT TO THE SHORT SIDE AND SPECS AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE. THE SPECS WILL BE QUITE NICELY RINSED BY THE FRBNY BANKERS IN SHORT ORDER!!
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT AND NOVEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3.838 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 11.4468 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.3966 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.0496 ONNES OF GOLD.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.40
WE HAD A HUGE 14,687 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
NOV 18
NOV CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of JPMorgan enhanced: 96,766.100 oz or 242 London good delivery bars of 400 oz each total withdrawal: 96,766.100 oz or 3.00 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 entries i) Into HSBC 2999.99 oz First entry as a deposit in 3 months. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 918 notice(s) 91,800 OZ 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 290 contracts 29,000 OZ 0.9020 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 9564 notices 956,400 0z 29.788 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entries
i) Into HSBC 2999.99 oz
First entry as a deposit in 3 mont
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of JPMorgan enhanced:
96,766.100 oz or 242 London good delivery bars
of 400 oz each
total withdrawal: 96,766.100 oz
or 3.00 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 0
volume at the comex: MONDAY: 275,792 oz//
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER:
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV STANDS AT 1208 CONTRACTS FOR A HUG GAIN OF 760 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 409 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY. SO WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 1169 CONTRACTS FOR 116,900 OZ OF GOLD (3.636 TONNES).
DECEMBER LOST 10,970 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 232,736 CONTRACTS . DECEMBER IS THE NEW FRONT MONTH AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DILLY MONTH STANDING FOR GOLD!!
JANUARY LOST 74 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1246
We had 918 contracts filed for today representing 91,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 918 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 190 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9564 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 1208 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (918 x 100 oz per contract) equals 985,400 OZ OR 30.6500 Tonnes of gold to which we add our first issuance of exchange for risk for 1.3996 tonnes//new standing advances to 32.0496 tonnes.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (9564x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (1208 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (918)x 100 oz) which equals 985,400 OZ OR 30.6500 TONNES to which we add our 1.3996 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total of gold standing in November is 32.0496 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV..: 32.0496 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER
volume MONDAY confirmed 381,612 contracts HUGE
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,970,845.069 oz 61.30 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 37,224,744.190 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,476,351.607 or 605.790 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,748,392.583 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,505,506 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
544.49 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE NOV. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
NOV 18 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of aSAHI 2100,372.990 OZ ii) Out of CNT 597,007.426 oz iii) Out of Delaware 13,807.305 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan: 1,289,142.600 oz total withdrawal: 4,000,330.321 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 44 CONTRACT(S) ( 220,000 OZ 0.220 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 89 contracts (0.445MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3468Contracts (17.345 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 entries
`
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of aSAHI 2100,372.990 OZ
ii) Out of CNT 597,007.426 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 13,807.305 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan: 1,289,142.600 oz
total withdrawal: 4,000,330.321 oz
adjustments: 0
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 156.106 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 465,585 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOVEMBER /2025 OI: 133 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 9 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 45 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 54 OR 0.270 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP.
DECEMBER LOST 7921 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 62,332. THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER DELIVERIES AND WE WILL HAVE A STRONG STANDING FOR OUR SILVER METAL.
JANUARY LOST 8 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2246 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 44 or 0.220 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 90,025 huge//
AND NOW NOVEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3469 X5,000 oz = 17.345MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (133) AND the number of notices served upon today (44 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOVEMBER 2025 contract month: (3469) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(133) minus number of notices served upon today (44)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the NOV.contract month equating to 17.785 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 17.785million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 156.106 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 200,550/465million. 43.02%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.43 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 489.283 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MCLEOD….
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer//GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /249
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.22 POINTS OR 0.81%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 454.25 PTS OR 1.72%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 1620.93 PTS OR 3.22% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.94%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1126/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1139/ Oil DOWN TO 59.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 63.93 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1126 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1139:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1139
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1126
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 454.24 PTS OR 1,72%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1620.93 PTS OR 3.22%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.40 – EURO RISES TO 1.1595 UP .0005 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.748//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.09…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.309UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6910/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.441 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.196
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.335
3j Gold at $4038.25 Silver at: 50.31 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 9/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.10
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.09 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.748% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.305 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7958 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9227 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.101 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.723 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.523 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.35 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5190 DOWN 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.3336 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.239 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.807 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures, Bitcoin Tumble, Extending Longest Losing Streak Since August
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 08:27 AM
US equity futures are sharply lower again – but off session lows – after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April; both tech and small caps are lagging as the market tries to find a level as the bond market continues to reduce the probability of a further Fed easing. As of 8:00am. S&P futures are -0.6%, set for the longest losing streak since late August. Nasdaq 100 contracts were also -0.6%. Pre-market, Mag7 names are mostly lower with AAPL/GOOG in the green and Semis are weaker. Cyclicals are poised to lag Defensives as the risk-off tone continues. Bitcoin has also pared its drop to 0.4%, having earlier fallen below $90,000 for the first time since April with traders are betting on even more downside. Rotation trades helped to support the overall market last week, but both the Dow and Russell 2000 underperformed yesterday. Topping the list of worries are AI valuations and whether the Fed will cut rates next month. Fund manager positioning (crowded in stocks and low on cash) is also a possible headwind, according to BofA. Treasuries were the main beneficiaries as investors continued to seek havens, with the 10-year yield falling four basis points to 4.09%. Gold fluctuated above $4,000 an ounce. The dollar was little changed. The macro data focus is old Aug / Sep data being released but ultimately the market awaits NVDA and NFP; the Fed Meeting Minutes may give additional color on the Fed’s reaction function into the Dec meeting.
In premarket trading, most Mag 7 names are lower: Microsoft (MSFT) falls 1.5% and Amazon (AMZN) is down 1.8%, underperforming Magnificent Seven peers after Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the stocks for the first time since initiating coverage in June 2022. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is up 0.6% after Loop Capital upgraded the Google parent to buy from hold. Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.1%
- Barrick Mining (B) is up 2.5% after the Financial Times reported that Elliott Management has built a “large” stake in the gold miner.
- Home Depot (HD) falls 3.5% after the retailer reported comparable sales and adjusted EPS for the third quarter that missed the consensus estimates. They also reduced the annual EPS guidance.
- Honeywell International (HON) falls 2.1% after BofA Global Research cut the recommendation on the industrial giant to underperform from buy, becoming the lone sell-equivalent rating in Bloomberg data. BofA expects shares to lag as elements of its spinoff strategy disappoint investors and the company doesn’t deliver earnings growth next year.
- Medtronic (MDT) is up 3.5% after the medical device maker lifted the bottom end of its range for adjusted profit forecast for the year.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) is up 3.1% after hedge fund manager Michael Burry touted the health insurer in a X post.
In corporate news, Apple’s iPhone 17 series drove a 37% rise in its monthly smartphone sales in the key China market, according to Counterpoint Research. Akzo Nobel agreed to acquire smaller rival paint maker Axalta Coating Systems in a €7.9 billion ($9.2 billion) deal. Baidu posted its biggest quarterly revenue slide on record, despite major AI spending.
The ongoing global rout underscored continued unease over interest rates and technology earnings, with Nvidia Corp.’s report on Wednesday poised to test investor nerves over lofty valuations in the artificial-intelligence sector. Focus will then turn to the delayed September jobs report due Thursday, a key gauge for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. With all the talk of a potential bubble in AI, most recently with comments from JPMorgan Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday are crucial for market direction. The report “will be the ultimate ‘blue or red pill’ moment for the market,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. Options suggest an earnings-related move of about 6.4%, roughly matching Nvidia’s recent average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The question is whether the selloff will continue after Nvidia’s results,” said Eric Bleines, a fund manager at SwissLife Gestion Privée in Paris. “This will make the difference between the market just taking a breather or going for a correction.”
Additionally, traders have less conviction about that, with interest-rate swaps now implying a less-than-50% likelihood of a December rate reduction. Several Fed officials have recently cautioned against a cut, although Governor Waller repeated his view in favor of lowering rates.
“A bit of volatility and a pullback into year-end was on Santa’s wish list for a majority of institutional accounts,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “Apart from retail investors, we do not think there is a lot of pain on the street.”
Meanwhile, in a sign that US government agencies were resuming operations after the longest shutdown on record, the Labor Department’s website showed 232,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 18. Data for the previous three weeks weren’t available. Weekly employment estimates from ADP Research due later Tuesday will offer more insight into the labor market.
Barclays strategists led by Anshul Gupta said Nvidia’s results and the September payrolls report will shape near-term sentiment. They see potential upside for the chipmaker amid accelerating AI investment and rising demand for computing infrastructure, but note the stock has posted negative one-week returns in four of its last five earnings periods.
European stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 1.3% and looking at a fourth day of losses, with mining and auto shares leading declines, while health care and personal care equities are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Roche shares gain as much as 7% after the drugmaker announced its phase 3 study evaluating investigational giredestrant as an adjuvant endocrine treatment for people with ER-positive, HER2-negative, early-stage breast cancer met its primary endpoint at a pre-planned interim analysis
- Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 4.7% after the German maker of tanks and ammunition said it is targeting sales of about €50 billion in 2030, while also providing guidance around margins and cash conversion
- Imperial Brands climbs as much as 3.2% after reporting its full-year results and outlining guidance for 2026. Panmure Liberum says the tobacco company’s results are on “the right side” of in-line
- Greencore Group shares jump as much as 6.7% after the food producer posted earnings ahead of expectations
- Mining shares are the worst performers in Europe on Tuesday, falling as much as 3.2%, as aluminum and copper declined ahead of publication of delayed US economic data
- UK lenders were among the worst-performing banks in Europe on Tuesday amid tax worries ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s budget announcement on Nov. 26
- Umicore shares dropped as much as 14% after a vehicle of holder Groupe Bruxelles Lambert sold roughly €300 million worth of shares in the chemicals company in an overnight placing
- ABB shares drop as much as 4.7%, the most in seven months, after the provider of power and automation technologies updated its financial goals ahead of its capital markets day
- Crest Nicholson shares fall as much as 12%, most since August 2024, as the UK housebuilder forecasts full-year profits at the low end of the range analysts expected
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped, poised for a third-straight session of losses, as concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble returned to the fore ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.4%, dipping below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April. A sub-gauge of technology shares led a broad decline across all sectors, with chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most markets in the region were in the red, with gauges in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan down more than 2% each. Concerns of AI overexuberance dominated sentiment as investors awaited Nvidia earnings due Thursday morning in Asia. A filing showed Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire stake in the chip-maker in the third quarter, adding fuel to market concerns over sector valuations. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo impacted markets for a second day, with Korean travel shares advancing after China warned its citizens against visiting Japan. Meanwhile, analysts said Philippine stocks could face more headwinds due to political instability as President Ferdinand Marcos reshuffles his cabinet.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed with not much movement versus the majors.
In rates, treasuries advance, with US 10-year yields falling 3 bps to 4.10%. UK and German government bonds also rise. Treasury futures hold gains with stock futures lower and technology sector in focus. Focal points of US session include weekly ADP jobs data and three scheduled Fed speakers. Treasury yields are richer by as much as 4bp-5bp in front-end and belly, outperforming long end and steepening the curve; 2s10s spread is about 1bp wider, 5s30s about 2bp; 10-year near 4.10% is about 2bp richer vs German counterpart, about 4bp vs UK. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $19 billion 10-year TIPS Thursday.
In commodities, spot gold is steady near $4,040/oz. Brent is trading near session highs, around $64.38.
Looking ahead, today’s US economic calendar includes ADP weekly jobs data (8:15am), August factory orders (10am) and September TIC flows (4pm); initial jobless claims in the week ended Oct. 18 numbered 232k in data posted to Labor Department website after being delayed by US government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Barr (10:30am), Barkin (11am) and Logan (7:55pm) On the corporate side, Home Depot reports earnings.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.6%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.7%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -1.2%
- DAX -1.2%
- CAC 40 -1.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.1%
- VIX +0.8 points at 23.16
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1220.57
- euro little changed at $1.1581
- WTI crude -0.2% at $59.8/barrel
Top Overnight News
- White House officials are insisting that latest tariff relief doesn’t amount to a retreat from the president’s staunch defense of tariffs as economic drivers, as critics say the White House is capitulating on its signature economics policy. NBC
- US initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to US Labor Department website showing historical data. The data’s release had been affected the government shutdown. BBG
- Mark Carney won a key budget vote by the slimmest of margins in Canada’s Parliament, ensuring the survival of his government and avoiding an election. BBG
- Hong Kong bankers and regulators are showing signs of growing concern about the city’s deepest real estate downturn since the Asian financial crisis. BBG
- China has bought nearly a million tons of US soybeans, a move that ends a temporary pause and appears to signal commitment to a trade truce agreed late last month. BBG
- Governor Kazuo Ueda told Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the Bank of Japan is in the process of slowly dialing back its easing support for the economy, signaling his unshaken intention to carefully raise rates. BBG
- Banking execs in the EU are bracing to be disappointed when officials lay out proposals to cut red tape in the coming weeks, as they predict that the measures will be far behind the deregulation taking place in the US. BBG
- Apple’s iPhone 17 series drove a 37% rise in monthly smartphone sales in China. BBG
- Home Depot (-3% premkt) cut its full-year earnings guidance, warning that some unsteady consumers are hitting the pause button on big-ticket home purchases. A modest miss was expected. Goldman thinks expectations were for a very small cut and it feels like we could say this was slightly worse than expectations.
- This earnings season, the share of firms discussing AI-related productivity on earnings calls has been highest within Communication Services and Financials. This quarter, 74% of Comm Services companies and 66% of Financials companies mentioned AI in the context of efficiency on their conference calls. AI-related productivity mentions were lowest in Utilities, Energy, and Materials. GIR
- JPMorgan COO Pinto says the US economy is not likely to enter a recession. On AI, says, there is likely to be a “correction” in AI valuations at some point. Upside for the S&P from here is relatively limited.
- US President Trump said he wants 1% inflation: BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the EU plans to introduce restrictions on EU exports of aluminium scrap.
- German Finance Minister on rare earths says Germany must do its homework and diversify supply chains.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk
APAC stocks extended losses throughout the session following a similar lead from Wall Street, which had seen heavy losses on Monday. Overall newsflow in APAC hours was quiet, although tech stocks were among the laggards in the region. ASX 200 showed a clear defensive bias across its sectors, with tech the hardest hit. No obvious reaction was seen to the RBA minutes, which largely emphasised uncertainty and data-dependence. Nikkei 225 edged lower after the open and eventually surrendered the 49,000 level, falling as much as 3% intraday. Several additional factors on top of the global risk aversion could’ve exacerbated losses, including woes surrounding Japan–China relations and the recent JPY and long-end JGB weakness. Several Japanese officials verbally intervened throughout the session but failed to sway the index meaningfully. KOSPI lagged as the index joined the global stock rout, following the prior day’s outperformance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened in the red and initially conformed to regional losses, with Hong Kong underperforming the Mainland amid its tech exposure.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Governor Ueda says he discussed the economy, inflation and monetary policy with Japanese PM Takaichi. Will decide on monetary policy while scrutinising various data. FX was discussed, won’t comment on details. Desirable for FX to move to reflect fundamentals.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is keeping an eye on markets with regard to fiscal policy and would not comment on FX levels, adding she is alarmed over FX moves; she said currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, and that the government will thoroughly monitor for excessive or disorderly forex fluctuations with a high sense of urgency. She noted concern over recent one-sided, rapid FX moves and said that while GDP avoided the worst, negative growth justifies a sizeable package, according to Reuters.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said long-term rate moves are determined by markets and that the government is watching market moves — including long-term rates — closely, according to Reuters.
- RBA November meeting minutes said it is appropriate in the current environment to remain cautious and data-dependent, with members determined they could remain patient while assessing incoming data on the extent of spare capacity. On rates, the minutes noted a mixed picture on whether policy remains restrictive — in contrast with the clearer signals seen in 2024 — and said the cash rate could be held at its current level if demand recovers more strongly than expected, while policy easing is still seen if the labour market weakens materially or growth disappoints; the Board said it is not possible to be confident about which scenario is more likely. The minutes said there may be a little more underlying inflationary pressure than previously assessed, noted the AUD remains close to equilibrium estimates, and said global growth is likely to slow in H2 2025, though the likelihood of a severe downside scenario has diminished, according to Reuters.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) opened lower across the board, in a continuation of the downbeat mood seen in Wall St and in APAC trade overnight. Indices found a base in early morning trade, where they have resided throughout the morning so far. European sectors are entirely in the red, and hold a clear defensive bias. Healthcare tops the pile, buoyed by strength in Roche (+5.6%), after a positive trial update related to a breast cancer pill. To the downside, Autos, Tech and Basic Resources are all pressured. US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are modestly lower across the board, albeit not to the extent seen in Europe. Traders count down their clocks till NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday, but before that markets will have some US data (Durable Goods, Weekly ADP Average Estimate) and a couple of Fed speakers. Earlier, a surprise jobless claims release (w/e 18th Oct) had little impact on contracts.
Top European News
- EU Commission says definitive measures imposed consist of country-specific tariff rate quotas per type of ferroalloy, limiting the volume of imports to enter the EU duty free.
FX
- DXY is currently choppy and trades within a busy 99.39 to 99.60 range. Initial action saw the index buoyed by the downbeat risk tone, where the USD was pressured by typical haven currencies such as the JPY & CHF whilst the Antipodeans lagged. Thereafter, the risk tone improved a touch and the Dollar dipped to make a session low – a move which also came amidst a surprise US weekly claims release. Do note that the weekly claims release is a delayed report for the w/e Oct 18th; it printed at 232k, whilst continuing claims printed at 1.957mln. Looking ahead, ADP will release its weekly US jobs gauge; last week, it reported that its average weekly estimate was -11,250. US factory orders are expected to have risen by 1.4% M/M in August (prev. -1.3%); durable goods revisions for August are also due today. NAHB’s housing market index is seen unchanged at 37 in November. Fed’s Barr (voter) and Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) are set to speak, while Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) will deliver remarks after the close.
- EUR is currently flat/mildly lower and largely moving at the whim of the Dollar given the lack of pertinent European newsflow. Initially flat vs the Dollar, then caught a bid to make a fresh session high above the 1.1600 mark – before once again reversing. Bid seemingly in the moments preceding the US jobless claims figures. Currently towards lows at 1.1583.
- JPY is also flat vs the USD, but began the European session a little firmer, having benefited from the subdued risk tone seen overnight. That downbeat sentiment has remained this morning, with equities continuing to reside firmly in the red – albeit have stabilised just off worst levels. For Japan specifically, a number of key sticking points; 1) a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi, 2) China-Japan tensions, 3) ongoing verbal intervention.
- GBP is steady vs the USD, but as above, was subject to some two-way action surrounding the US jobless claims data. Currently trading in a 1.3146 to 1.3176 range. Focus for the day will be on commentary from BoE’s Pill and Dhingra this afternoon, and then will shift to the UK’s inflation report on Wednesday. A dataset which has heightened focused, given BoE Governor Bailey highlighted inflation developments at the most recent confab – he is likely to be the deciding vote ahead in December; markets currently assign a 79% chance of a 25bps reduction at that meeting. More pertinent for the GBP are budget-related updates. Most recently, The Telegraph reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a last-minute raid on banking profits in the budget. This would be a politically favourable move, but perhaps overshadowed by the growth-related implications of such a move, and boost concerns re. the UK’s investment attractiveness.
- Antipodeans were initially the clear underperformers vs the USD overnight and into the European morning – though as the session progressed, that move has since stabilised. AUD is essentially flat and trades within a 0.6466 to 0.6499 range whilst the Kiwi is marginally firmer and trades within a 0.5639 to 0.5669 range.
Fixed Income
- USTs started the day on a firmer footing, buoyed by the risk tone, and have continued to grind higher as the morning progressed. USTs at a 112-19 peak, posting gains of nine ticks at most. Eclipsing Monday’s 112-24+ best but stopping just shy of a cluster from last week between 113-01+ to 113-04+. Upside this morning was also spurred by a surprise release from the Department of Labour, jobless claims at 232k in the October 18th week and continuing at 1.957mln (prev. 1.947mln); no direct comparison to initial, the last release was 219k for the week of September 20th. Notably, the move in US fixed income assets to the release was fairly muted in nature. Potentially a function of participants awaiting more timely series and/or the hard data to begin to be released in the next few days and weeks before reassessing their position in December. Ahead, we get the latest ADP series (not the BLS reference period), a handful of other prints and remarks from Fed’s Barr (voter) and Barkin (2026) on supervision and the economic outlook respectively.
- Bunds are bid, in-fitting with the above. Lifted across the early European morning before seeing a bit of a pullback just after the cash equity open and in proximity to the time of the discussed US jobless claims series. A pullback that was possibly a function of cash equity benchmarks opening slightly better than futures had implied at their worst and/or participants being caught off guard by the DOL release. Since, Bunds have resumed their climb and are towards highs of 128.90 as the European tone remains subdued overall and the fixed income complex generally moves higher.
- Gilts are also moving alongside peers. Currently at the top-end of a 92.41 to 92.60 bound. Specifics for the UK light today, as we count down to Wednesday’s CPI release for confirmation that inflation has peaked and early insight into the December meeting. UK specifics remain focused on the budget, and while there have been a handful of pertinent updates, primarily relating to domestic banking names, nothing has emerged to significantly change the narrative for rates at this point in time.
- UK sells GBP 1.25bln 4.75% 2030 Gilt by tender: b/c 3.75x, average yield 3.896%
- China began marketing a EUR bond sale to raise up to EUR 4bln; guidance was set at mid-swaps +28bps for the 4-year tranche and mid-swaps +38bps for the 7-year tranche, according to Bloomberg and the term sheet.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks initially sold off during the APAC session as risk sentiment continued to sour but has pared back on earlier losses at the start of the European session. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of 59.28/bbl and 63.62/bbl respectively before reversing higher to peak at 59.73/bbl and 64.07/bbl. Benchmarks currently continue to trade towards session highs, to make a fresh peak at USD 59.91/bbl and USD 64.25/bbl, for WTI and Brent respectively.
- Spot XAU has steadied above USD 4k/oz as the metal continues to struggle to act as a traditional safe haven during US equity selloffs. XAU fell throughout the APAC session from the open at USD 4044/oz to a trough of USD 4004/oz as the European session got underway. The yellow metal briefly dipped below US 4k/oz to a low of 3998/oz before attracting buyers that took price c. USD 45/oz higher to a high of USD 4042/oz as US data got released.
- Base metals have continued to drop, following the broader risk aversion. 3M LME Copper opened at USD 10.76k/t and gradually fell c. USD 100/t to a trough of USD 10.66k/t. The red metal has managed to find a base at these levels and currently, 3M LME Copper is trading in tight c. USD 70/t band at the lows of the day.
- Rio Tinto (RIO AT/RIO LN) reduced production at its Yawun alumina refinery to extend its operational life, with output set to decline by 1.2mln tonnes annually and the refinery’s production to be cut by 40% in 2026, according to Reuters.
- Goldman Sachs says as global LNG supply continues to rise faster than Asia demand, estimates that NW European storage will face congestion in 2028/29 which would pressure TTF and JKM low enough to reduce global LNG supply.
- Commerzbank expects copper and aluminium to reach USD 12,000/t and USD 3,200/t respectively in 2026. Zinc prices to settle around USD 3,000/t. Nickel prices to settle at USD 16,000/t.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- The UN Security Council adopted the US-led resolution establishing an international stabilisation force in Gaza, with 13 countries voting in favour while Russia and China abstained, according to Reuters.
- Hamas said the UN resolution imposes international trusteeship on Gaza, which is rejected by Palestinians and factions, and that the resolution does not meet Palestinian rights and demands, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said the US will be selling F-35s (LMT) to Saudi Arabia.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- A White House official said President Trump would sign the Russia-sanctions bill if decision-making authority remains, according to Reuters.
- The US Treasury said sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are reducing Russian oil revenues and pushing Russian crude prices to multi-year lows, while Treasury OFAC analysis stated the sanctions may have a long-term negative effect on the volume of Russian oil sales.
- The Ukrainian military said a Russian missile attack targeted the east of the country, according to Al Arabiya.
- Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy announces plans to go to Turkey on Wednesday to reinvigorate negotiations
Geopolitics: Others
- Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa said there are currently no particular changes in China’s export-control measures on rare earths and other products, according to Reuters.
- North Korea said South Korea’s nuclear-propelled submarine will lead it to arm itself with nuclear weapons and said it will respond to the confrontational stance of the US–South Korea joint factsheet, via KCNA.
- The US Ambassador to Japan posted that the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands, and said nothing the China Coast Guard flotilla does can change that fact, via X.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00 am: Nov NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 37, prior 37
- 10:00 am: Aug Factory Orders, est. 1.4%, prior -1.3%
- 10:00 am: Aug F Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
- 10:00 am: Aug F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.59%, prior 0.6%
- 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3%
- 4:00 pm: Sep Total Net TIC Flows
- 4:00 pm: Sep Net Long-term TIC Flows
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:30 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Bank Supervision at American University
- 11:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
- 7:55 pm: Fed’s Logan Delivers Closing Remarks at Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been a challenging start to the week as markets brace for two key events: Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow night and the US payrolls report on Thursday. I’m old enough to remember when the US employment report came once a month on a Friday! For now, equities remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 (-0.92%) posting a third consecutive loss for the first time since September and marking its worst three-day run since April (-2.61%) with futures down another half a percent as I type this morning. Concerns swirling around the AI trade pushed Nvidia (-1.88%) to another decline, US HY spreads widened (+5bps), and the VIX index (+2.55pts) closed at a 4-week high of 22.38pts. And there was no respite from the slump in crypto, where Bitcoin (-3.32%) fell to its lowest level since April with another couple of percent of declines seen this morning. It’s now down around -4% in 2025 and nearly 30% of its YTD peaks 6 weeks ago.
Those losses for the S&P 500 brought the index below its 50-day moving average, often viewed as an important technical threshold, for the first time in 139 sessions. That was the longest such run since 2007. While AI weakness was a key driver, sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.55% lower, it was a day of broad weakness with 407 decliners within the S&P 500, the most in 5 weeks. The small cap Russell 2000 (-1.96%) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.31%) both fell to their lowest levels since August. The Mag-7 (-0.08%) actually had a better day but this was mostly thanks to Alphabet +(3.11%) which rallied on news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the company last quarter. Credit spreads ticked a little higher, with US IG and HY spreads +1bps and +5bps wider respectively. Those moves came as Amazon became the latest of the tech giants to tap the bond market, raising $15bn in its first bond offering in three years.
In addition to the AI concerns, the risk-off tone was reinforced by the latest signals from the Fed, as investors continued to price out the likelihood of a December rate cut. Futures now imply just a 41% probability, down from 43% on Friday – with the highest rate priced for the December contract since late August. This hawkish tilt has been evident since Powell’s October press conference, and front-end Treasury yields reflected that, with the 2yr yield (+0.3bps) rising to 3.61% even as the risk-off tone brought 10yr yields lower (-0.9bps to 4.14%). However, the continued risk-off move overnight has helped 2yr and 10yr yields to rally -3.1bps and -2.3bps respectively.
The reason the front-end initially held up was partly driven by a surprisingly strong Empire State manufacturing survey from the NY Fed yesterday. Normally a second-tier release, it grabbed attention given the lingering data backlog from the shutdown. The headline index surged to 18.7 in November (vs. 5.8 expected), its highest in a year, reinforcing the view that the US economy has held up well and the Fed needn’t rush into further cuts.
The ongoing decline in December cut expectations came despite slightly dovish remarks from Vice Chair Jefferson, who saw the “balance of risks in the economy as having shifted in recent months with increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently”. That said, he left December open as a data dependent decision. More clearly on the dovish side of the FOMC, we heard from Fed Governor Waller, who repeated the view that the Fed should cut rate again in December, saying that this would “provide additional insurance against an acceleration in the weakening of the labor market”.
The sell-off is continuing overnight with the KOSPI (-3.06%) leading the declines, with the Nikkei (-2.90%) not far behind. Japanese long-bonds continue to sell-off as markets fear a larger-than-expected supplementary budget later this week from the new Takaichi administration. The 40yr bond has hit its highest level, +8bps to 3.68% this morning, with the 30yr is +5.1bps.
Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.94%) is also seeing large losses after the minutes from the RBA’s November meeting indicated that the central bank remains largely cautious regarding further interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-1.55%) is also trading noticeably lower, with the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%) outperforming. S&P 500 (-0.45%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.55%) futures are off their session lows but are still declining.
In Europe yesterday, the market moves largely echoed those across the Atlantic, as the STOXX 600 (-0.54%), DAX (-1.20%) and CAC 40 (-0.63%) all posted a third consecutive decline. Futures are showing further declines of around a percent overnight. European bonds matched Treasuries, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-0.6bps) and BTPs (-2.6bps) all slipping. 10yr Gilts rebounded more (-3.9bps) after a tough Friday session. The European Commission published its autumn forecasts. Growth for the Euro Area in 2025 was revised up to +1.3% (from +0.9%), while 2026 was trimmed to +1.2% (from +1.4%). Inflation forecasts were steady at +2.1% for 2025, but nudged up to +1.9% for 2026.
In reality, the news flow was light yesterday. Canada’s October CPI was mixed: median core CPI eased to +2.9% (vs. +3.0% expected), but headline CPI edged up to +2.2% (vs. +2.1%). A December cut by the Bank of Canada was already seen as unlikely, but the odds fell further to just 3%, from 6% before the weekend.
Looking ahead, today brings comments from Fed officials Barr, Barkin and Logan, alongside the BoE’s Pill and Dhingra. On the corporate side, Home Depot reports earnings.
b. European opening report
c) Asian opening report
APAC and Wall St losses stream into Europe with European equity futures lower – Newsquawk European Opening News
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 01:23 AM
- APAC stocks extended losses throughout the session following a similar lead from Wall Street, which had seen heavy losses on Monday. Overall newsflow in APAC hours was quiet, although tech stocks were among the laggards in the region.
- DXY traded flat for most of the session and eventually drifted lower before dipping under 99.50 despite quiet newsflow, but as haven FX (JPY and CHF) gained amid risk aversion.
- JGB futures saw limited movement at the short end while the long end continued to weaken, pushing the 20-year yield to its highest level since July 1999.
- Bitcoin saw deep losses and eventually fell under the USD 90,000 mark to levels last seen in April, whilst Ethereum fell under USD 3,000.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 1.1% after cash closed 0.9% lower on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly Estimate, US Factory Orders (Aug), US Durable Goods (Aug), and Japanese Trade Balance. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson; BoE’s Pill, Dhingra; Fed’s Barr, Barkin. Earnings include Home Depot, Baidu, Medtronic, PDD; Imperial Brands, Diploma.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks saw heavy losses on Monday, with all sectors, aside from Communications and Utilities, in the red. There was no one specific catalyst for the risk-off trade to start the week, just further concerns regarding elevated valuations in the AI space, while the SPX slipped below 6,700 and closed beneath its 50-DMA of 6,707.
- SPX -0.91% at 6,672, NDX -0.83% at 24,800, DJI -1.18% at 46,590, RUT -1.96% at 2,341
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he wants 1% inflation, according to Bloomberg.
- Fed Governor Waller made the case for continuing interest-rate cuts and said he supports a 25bps cut in December, arguing it would provide additional labour-market insurance, via the Federal Reserve; in the Q&A, Waller said that if the job market rebounds there would be less need for insurance cuts, and that the balance sheet is essentially where it needs to be. He said rising market rates suggest reserves are becoming scarce, and that the balance sheet may need to grow again within months; he noted increasing reports of planned layoffs, said the Fed should pay more attention to the labour market than to the current inflation overshoot, and that firms are funding AI investments by not hiring, with low- and middle-income households cutting spending and affecting hiring. He said a 25bps cut will not restore previous job-growth levels, warned razor-thin votes could undermine confidence in future decisions, and said the neutral rate is unclear. He added the Fed needs a stronger reason than five years of above-target inflation to avoid cutting, said he would have ended QE earlier, noted no market stress from a higher budget deficit, flagged difficulty judging the accuracy of the October jobs data, and said past experience has made the Fed more cautious about 50bps cuts
- Amazon’s (AMZN) US dollar bond sale drew roughly USD 80bln of demand, according to Reuters. Amazon set the size of its US dollar bond offering at USD 15bln, according to Bloomberg.
- Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales surge in China, taking 25% share, according to Bloomberg citing Counterpoint.
- Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s lawyer provided the first detailed defence of her mortgage applications, arguing that apparent discrepancies in loan documents were either accurate at the time or an “inadvertent notation”, according to the WSJ.
DATA RECAP
- Atlanta Fed GDPnow (Q3): 4.1% (prev. 4.0%).
TRADE/TARIFFS
- The UK is reportedly considering options to retaliate against Europe over steel tariffs, with the government working on counter-measures should it fail to secure preferential treatment on EU plans to raise steel-import tariffs to 50% and cut existing quotas by nearly half; the UK is also examining how to accelerate the replacement of its own steel safeguards, due to expire in June next year, so it can introduce its own tightened import quotas, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
- US President Trump said a country — which he did not specify — wanted to try to renegotiate the terms of its trade deal.
- US President Trump said he expects to issue dividends to Americans based on tariff revenues, probably in the middle of 2026, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks extended losses throughout the session following a similar lead from Wall Street, which had seen heavy losses on Monday. Overall newsflow in APAC hours was quiet, although tech stocks were among the laggards in the region.
- ASX 200 showed a clear defensive bias across its sectors, with tech the hardest hit. No obvious reaction was seen to the RBA minutes, which largely emphasised uncertainty and data-dependence.
- Nikkei 225 edged lower after the open and eventually surrendered the 49,000 level, falling as much as 3% intraday. Several additional factors on top of the global risk aversion could’ve exacerbated losses, including woes surrounding Japan–China relations and the recent JPY and long-end JGB weakness. Several Japanese officials verbally intervened throughout the session but failed to sway the index meaningfully.
- KOSPI lagged as the index joined the global stock rout, following the prior day’s outperformance.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened in the red and initially conformed to regional losses, with Hong Kong underperforming the Mainland amid its tech exposure.
- US equity futures traded on either side of the flat mark, initially resuming trade in modest positive territory before reversing as the mood from APAC lightly seeped into US futures.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 1.1% after cash closed 0.9% lower on Monday.
FX
- DXY traded flat for most of the session but eventually drifted lower before dipping under 99.50 despite quiet newsflow, but as haven FX (JPY and CHF) saw some gains due to risk aversion. Participants look ahead to Tuesday’s ADP report, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, and the delayed US data due later in the week, while a broader macro reaction to NVIDIA earnings cannot be ruled out.
- EUR/USD was uneventful in a narrow range below 1.1600 for most of the session before USD weakness took the pair back around the round figure, with light newsflow and little on the near-term calendar for EUR traders, leaving EUR pairs and crosses largely at the whim of the quote currency.
- GBP/USD traded flat in similarly muted conditions for a majority of the session before USD weakness lifted the pair more convincingly above 1.3150, with attention limited to remarks from BoE’s Dhingra scheduled after the European close today.
- USD/JPY was broadly unchanged for most of the session despite the APAC risk-off tone, after choppy moves triggered by fresh rounds of verbal intervention from Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Katayama, noting alarm over FX volatility, which briefly supported the JPY. The pair later gained amid late haven flows, with USD/JPY eventually falling under the 155.00 mark.
- Antipodeans drifted lower throughout the session amid the risk aversion. AUD showed little immediate reaction to the RBA minutes, which offered limited fresh detail but reiterated a cautious, data-dependent stance.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0856 vs exp. 7.1096 (Prev. 7.0816)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were in a tight, choppy range, mirroring the modest, risk-driven gains seen in the prior session amid the risk aversion across APAC.
- Bund futures eventually moved into the green amid the risk aversion, whilst lows were seen at the open, although the contract found support just above the 128.50 mark, with little on the EZ docket ahead.
- JGB futures saw limited movement at the short end while the long end continued to weaken, pushing the 20yr yield to its highest level since July 1999. Repeated verbal intervention from Japanese officials did little to arrest the decline.
- Australia sold AUD 300mln 4.75% 2054 AGB; b/c 2.85x (prev. 4.05x), average yield 5.0603% (prev. 4.8213%)
- China began marketing a EUR bond sale to raise up to EUR 4bln; guidance was set at mid-swaps +28bps for the 4-year tranche and mid-swaps +38bps for the 7-year tranche, according to Bloomberg and the term sheet.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were pressured by the broader risk-off tone. Energy-specific headlines were limited, while geopolitical developments included sharp nuclear rhetoric from North Korea and the UN Security Council’s adoption of a US-led resolution to establish an international stabilisation force in Gaza, with 13 votes in favour and abstentions from Russia and China.
- Spot gold softened despite steady FX and risk aversion across APAC, with precious metals offered as spot gold met resistance just above USD 4,050/oz and silver failed to hold above USD 50/oz.
- Copper futures were weighed by the risk-off backdrop, though declines in base-metal futures remained shallower than those seen in spot precious metals.
- Rio Tinto (RIO AT/RIO LN) is imposing surcharges on aluminium shipments it sells to the US, according to Bloomberg.
- Rio Tinto (RIO AT/RIO LN) reduced production at its Yawun alumina refinery to extend its operational life, with output set to decline by 1.2mln tonnes annually and the refinery’s production to be cut by 40% in 2026, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin saw deep losses and eventually fell under the USD 90,000 mark to levels last seen in April, whilst Ethereum fell under USD 3,000.
- Technicians will be cognizant of the “death cross” formed for Bitcoin as the 50 DMA fell under the 200 DMA.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she is keeping an eye on markets with regard to fiscal policy and would not comment on FX levels, adding she is alarmed over FX moves; she said currencies should move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, and that the government will thoroughly monitor for excessive or disorderly forex fluctuations with a high sense of urgency. She noted concern over recent one-sided, rapid FX moves and said that while GDP avoided the worst, negative growth justifies a sizeable package, according to Reuters.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said long-term rate moves are determined by markets and that the government is watching market moves — including long-term rates — closely, according to Reuters.
- RBA November meeting minutes said it is appropriate in the current environment to remain cautious and data-dependent, with members determined they could remain patient while assessing incoming data on the extent of spare capacity. On rates, the minutes noted a mixed picture on whether policy remains restrictive — in contrast with the clearer signals seen in 2024 — and said the cash rate could be held at its current level if demand recovers more strongly than expected, while policy easing is still seen if the labour market weakens materially or growth disappoints; the Board said it is not possible to be confident about which scenario is more likely. The minutes said there may be a little more underlying inflationary pressure than previously assessed, noted the AUD remains close to equilibrium estimates, and said global growth is likely to slow in H2 2025, though the likelihood of a severe downside scenario has diminished, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- The UN Security Council adopted the US-led resolution establishing an international stabilisation force in Gaza, with 13 countries voting in favour while Russia and China abstained, according to Reuters.
- Hamas said the UN resolution imposes international trusteeship on Gaza, which is rejected by Palestinians and factions, and that the resolution does not meet Palestinian rights and demands, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said the US will be selling F-35s (LMT) to Saudi Arabia.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- A White House official said President Trump would sign the Russia-sanctions bill if decision-making authority remains, according to Reuters.
- The US Treasury said sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are reducing Russian oil revenues and pushing Russian crude prices to multi-year lows, while Treasury OFAC analysis stated the sanctions may have a long-term negative effect on the volume of Russian oil sales.
- The Ukrainian military said a Russian missile attack targeted the east of the country, according to Al Arabiya.
OTHERS
- US President Trump, when asked if he would launch strikes against Mexico to stop drugs, said it is “okay with me” and added he is not happy with Mexico, saying Mexico knows where he stands, according to Reuters.
- Japan’s Trade Minister Akazawa said there are currently no particular changes in China’s export-control measures on rare earths and other products, according to Reuters.
- North Korea said South Korea’s nuclear-propelled submarine will lead it to arm itself with nuclear weapons and said it will respond to the confrontational stance of the US–South Korea joint factsheet, via KCNA.
- The US Ambassador to Japan posted that the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands, and said nothing the China Coast Guard flotilla does can change that fact, via X.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a last-minute raid on banking profits in the budget, according to The Telegraph.
c) Asian opening report
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA//USA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/CHINA
Japan states that it is basically an act of war if China usurps Taiwan by force
(zerohedge)
Threats Of Sanctions, Economic Warfare, As Japan-China Relations Sink To Decades Low
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 06:50 PM
China and Japan are experiencing their most intense diplomatic tensions in years after Beijing issued economic warnings in response to recent comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about a potential Taiwan conflict. As we featured previously, Takaichi had suggested that any Chinese use of force against Taiwan could be considered a “situation threatening Japan’s survival” – which could justify Tokyo supporting allied nations in defense of the self-ruled island.
Beijing reacted swiftly, with a Chinese state broadcaster over the weekend having cautioned that the country is “fully prepared for concrete countermeasures,” which could include sanctions, trade repercussions, and even the suspension of all diplomatic or military engagement – as cited in Bloomberg. All of this comes after NATO scrapped highly provocative plans to open a ‘NATO office’ in Japan.
Takaichi is only a month in office, and became the first Japanese leader in decades to publicly raise the Taiwan Strait crisis alongside the possible deployment of Japanese troops.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Monday repeated Beijing’s demand for a full retraction and apology. She called on Japan to “Stop crossing the line and playing with fire, retract the wrongful remarks and deeds and honor its commitments to China with real action.”
She further declared there is “no space” for ambiguity on what China sees as its territory. She further explained, “China has made its serious position clear several times on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s wrongful remarks on Taiwan.” She added: “The remarks seriously violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, and cause fundamental damage to the political foundation of China-Japan relations.”
Bloomberg has cited one regional analyst who says a full severing of relations is likely not on the agenda:
“Although China’s reaction has been very strong so far, it’s very calculated,” said Rui Aoyama, a professor of Japan-China relations at Waseda University in Tokyo. “China is aiming to deal a blow to Japan’s economy, but I don’t think there’s an intention to cut ties.”
Yet this will be a serious test for Takaichi, and there could be painful economic repercussions for Japan just around the corner.
Already last week China urged its nationals not to travel to Japan, and summoned the Japanese ambassador to Beijing to condemn Takaichi’s remarks.
State media ramping up the trolling and attacks…
The situation then turned into a tit-for-tat of outrage. Fox example Japan has been most angered at a social media post issued a week ago by China’s consul general in the Japanese city of Osaka, Xue Jian. He had shared article about Takaichi’s parliamentary remarks on X with his own words, “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off.” Tokyo quickly lodged its own diplomatic protest over the “high inappropriate” commentary.
But China has still maintained all of this ultimately stems from the “extremely wrong and dangerous” words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi related to defending Taiwan.
3. CHINA
CHINA/
We strongly believe that China has now accumulated north of 70,000 tonnes of gold
(zerohedge)
FT Confirms Our Report From 2024 That China Is Buying 10x More Gold Than Officially Disclosed
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 08:05 PM
One year ago, Goldman’s precious metal analyst Lina Thomas made the case that gold would rise to $3000 by the end of 2025 (it ended up rising more than $1000 higher) as a result of relentless central bank purchases in general, and thanks to China’s ravenous appetite for gold in particular. The bank promptly got pushback on this thesis, with skeptics countering that it is unlikely that gold will manage to keep its ascent at the same time as the dollar rises to new record highs, one of the largest consensus Trump trades.
In response, Thomas also – correctly – pushed back, writing that she disagrees with the argument that “gold cannot rally to $3,000/toz by end-2025 in a world where the dollar stays stronger for longer”, for four reasons:
- First, it will be US policy rate that drives investor gold demand, with no significant additional role for the dollar.
- Second, Thomas disagreed with the view that dollar strength will halt structurally higher central bank purchases because central banks tend to buy gold internationally from their dollar reserves. In fact, the large central bank buyers tend to raise their gold demand amid local currency weakness to boost confidence in their currency.
- Third, the tendency for the dollar and gold prices to rise with uncertainty supports their roles as portfolio hedges, including against tariff escalation.
- Finally, the yuan depreciation and broader easing that Goldman economists expect should have a roughly neutral net effect on China’s retail gold demand, as the gold demand boost from lower China rates roughly offsets the hit from higher local gold prices.
And while it took less than a year for gold prices to surge far above the bank’s (in retrospect) conservative forecast, there was one aspect of the prediction that was already playing out: as we showed at the time using an analysis of central bank and other institutional gold buying on the London OTC market, China was secretly buying up 10x more gold than it admits.
A few months later we repeated this observation: China continued to secretly buy 10x more gold (27 tonnes) than it reports (3 tonnes).
While that alone was sufficient to validate the bullish thesis, another key factor that also emerged was the aggressive ramp up of gold ETF purchases by retail investors, something we predicted over a year ago…
… and which Morgan Stanley confirmed over the weekend had been a “big support for gold this year.”
But while ETF purchases come and go as price momentum ebbs and flows, in retrospect the biggest shocker was our revelation that – in keeping with tradition – China was secretly buying up most of the available gold in the open market (presumably in anticipation of some major event which has yet to be unveiled). Needless to say, there was tremendous pushback to this claim, with the “serious” strategists balking at the possibility that China would be allocating its precious reserves to a barbarous relic.
Not any more: fast-forwarding to one year later when over the weekend, the FT reported that “China’s actual gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away from the US dollar, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally.” Or precisely what we said last December.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1595023097488293890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1595023097488293890%7Ctwgr%5E91cfb7afa38b3a82797efab3462425305fb0d32f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fft-confirms-our-report-2024-china-buying-10x-more-gold-officially-disclosed
The FT notes that publicly reported buying by China’s central bank has been so low this year – 1.9 tonnes purchased in August, 1.9 tonnes in July and 2.2 tonnes in June – that few in the market believe the official figures. Instead, echoing the same trade data analysis we did back in 2024 (and ever since), the newspaper points to work done by analysts at Société Générale who estimate that China’s total purchases could reach as much as 250 tonnes this year, or more than a third of total global central bank demand.
The scale of the country’s unreported purchases highlights the growing challenges facing traders trying to work out where prices go next in a market increasingly dominated by central bank purchases.
“China is buying gold as part of their de-dollarisation strategy,” said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, who says he does not try to guess how much gold the People’s Bank of China is buying.
“Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’t. There’s just no way to know where this stuff goes and who is buying it.”
And since official Chinese data is unreliable at best, or simply fake, traders had turned to alternative sources of data to gauge demand, such as orders for freshly cast 400oz bars with consecutive serial numbers, which are typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped via London and flown to China, for evidence of the country’s purchases. The same analysis we have been doing since 2022.
“This year, people are really not believing the official figures, especially about China,” said Bruce Ikemizu, director of the Japan Bullion Market Association, who believes China’s current gold reserves are nearly 5,000 tonnes, double the level it publicly reports.
Of course, China is not alone: ever since the US weaponized the dollar in response to the Ukraine war, Central banks have been buying up huge quantities of bullion fuelling a rally that has pushed the price above $4,300 per troy ounce.
This accumulating has been so relentless, that gold’s share of global reserves outside the US has climbed from 10% to 26% over the past decade, World Gold Council data shows, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar. Yet fewer and fewer of these purchases are being reported to the IMF, which collects data voluntarily.
In the most recent quarter, only about one-third of official buying was publicly reported, down from about 90% four years ago, according to WGC estimates based on Metals Focus data.
Central banks may choose not to report their gold activity to avoid front-running the market or for political reasons. Some fear that publicly buying bullion, which is often a hedge against the dollar, could worsen relations with the Trump administration.
“It makes sense to just report the bare minimum, if need be, for fear of reprisal from the US administration,” said Nicky Shiels, analyst at Swiss refinery MKS Pamp. “Gold is seen as a pure USA hedge. In most emerging markets it is in central banks’ interest to not fully disclose purchases.”
At the same time, sellers are also keen not to move prices against themselves by announcing their intentions. Former UK chancellor Gordon Brown’s well-publicized statements in 1999 that the Bank of England would sell half its gold reserves helped push prices even lower, and the sale yielded just $275 per ounce on average, about one-fifteenth of today’s price.
Michael Haigh, an analyst at Société Générale, said this opacity made the gold market “unique and tricky” compared with commodities such as oil, where Opec plays a role in regulating production.
“What is different with gold is that the tonnage going in and out of central banks is so impactful. Without having clarity on that, it is a bit more of an issue.”
And while China is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of gold, it is also the least transparent, leaving analysts to run their own numbers based on import data, guesswork and tips.
Its official gold-buying program, which is managed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, part of the People’s Bank of China, has officially bought just 25 tonnes this year. Reserve gold is typically stored either in Shanghai or in Beijing. And yet, applying the same proxy we used one year ago, namely looking at UK gold exports to China (as the PBOC favors large bars which are mainly traded in London), SocGen estimates that Safe will import about 250 tonnes this year, or 10x more. This number sure sounds familiar…
Another method is to calculate the gap between China’s net imports and domestic gold production, and the change in the amount held by commercial banks or purchased by retail consumers. Using this method, Plenum Research, a Beijing consultancy, calculates a “gap” attributable to official buying of 1,351 tonnes in 2023 and 1,382 tonnes in 2022, more than six times the public purchases China made in those years.
But while the actual numbers are unclear, one thing is certain: China will buy much more gold than it officially reports. Safe has one-year and five-year targets for its purchases of gold, and current official holdings remain far below target, according to a former Safe official. The purchases are made not only by Safe and its intermediaries, but also by China’s sovereign wealth fund CIC and the military, which are not mandated to disclose their holdings on a timely basis.
Complicating the picture is China’s status as the world’s largest gold miner, accounting for 10% of global production last year, which means that it also has the option of buying bullion domestically for its reserves. But in a geopolitical statement of force, as China expands its gold holdings, it is also courting developing nations to store it in the country. As BBG recently reported, Cambodia recently agreed to place newly purchased gold, paid for in renminbi, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s vault in Shenzhen.
In light of all these variables, many gold analysts will not even hazard a guess as to the true scale of purchases by the PBoC.
“It’s ultimately unknowable,” said Adrian Ash, research director of BullionVault, an online trading platform. “Any apparent route to figuring it out . . . misses the problem that it is only one part of the enigma wrapped in the riddle which is China’s bullion market.”
One thing is clear: it will keep rising.
In a note published earlier today Lina Thomas (and available to pro subs), the Goldman gold analyst who correctly calculated China’s true purchases over a year ago, she writes that the bank’s latest gold nowcast estimates that central bank purchased 64 tonnes for September vs. 21 tonnes in August, and central bank buying likely continued in November: “We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks. We maintain our assumption of average monthly central bank buying of 80 tonnes in 2025Q4-2026“, Thomas wrote.
Some more details from her note (available to pro subs):
The gold price broke higher last week, jumping about $25 in a vertical move during last Monday’s Asia hours and rising nearly 6% before correcting on Friday to just under $4,100. The timing, size and speed of last Monday’s price increase are consistent with Asian [ZH: read Chinese] central bank buying, which often appears in London prices around Asian trading hours and thus sees an initial decrease in the Shanghai-London price premium but is then often followed by delayed momentum buying in retail China and then the West.
We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.
Our GS nowcast of central bank and institutional gold demand on the London OTC estimates September purchases at 64 tonnes (67 tonnes on a 12-month moving-average basis), up from 21 tonnes in August and consistent with the typical post-summer seasonal acceleration (Exhibit 1).
Goldman estimates that September purchases were led by the Middle East – Qatar at 20 tonnes and Oman at 7 tonnes – and China at 15 tonnes, extending the trend of massively underreporting its actual purchases (the official number was roughly 10% of that estimate).
Goldman concludes that the pickup in central bank buying, together with the largest monthly gold Western ETF inflow (112 tonnes) since mid-2022, marks the first time in this cycle that strong post-2022 central bank demand and such a sizable increase in ETF holdings have occurred simultaneously, something we predicted back in 2024. Thomas believes that this combination, alongside likely additional off-ETF physical buying by ultra-high net worth individuals, as well as the ongoing buying spree by Tether which is increasingly diversifying into gold alongside T-bills, likely contributed to September’s 10% rally, the strongest monthly increase in gold prices since 2016.
Going forward, Goldman expects continued central bank buying, alongside private investor flows under Fed easing, to lift gold prices to $4,900 by end-2026, and predicted even more “significant upside” if the private investor diversification theme gains more traction.
More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
POLAND/RUSSIA
Poland Suspects Russia In “Unprecedented Act Of Sabotage” Of Rail Line
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 04:15 AM
EU and NATO leaders are currently pointing the finger at Russia for what could be one of the single biggest acts of sabotage on European soil since the Ukraine war began.
A train track linking the Polish cities of Warsaw and Lublin was destroyed in an “unprecedented act of sabotage” on Sunday. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that the now damaged railway is “crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine.” In invoking Ukraine aid, he’s clearly letting suspicion fall on Moscow – though no arrests have been made in the early investigation. But photos suggest it’s only a very small section of track left missing and subject to damage. And yet this could indeed be enough to derail a train.
An “explosive device” blew up the rail track, Tusk stated X. He followed by decrying that the act “directly (targeted) the security of the Polish state and its civilians.” Apparently there was more damage even beyond this, with destruction located further down the line as well.
“Unfortunately, the worst suspicions were confirmed. An act of sabotage occurred on the Warsaw-Lublin line (in the village of Mika). An explosive device detonated and destroyed the railway track,” Tusk said.
While not directly naming Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to chime in, calling for greater European collective defense, also to ‘protect the skies’ amid alleged Russian-directed drone operations…
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal additionally condemned the apparent sabotage op, writing on X that he and his country stand with Poland. “Those behind hostile acts against (European Union) and NATO members must be exposed. Our response must be united,” Michal said.
Estonia is one among several Balkan and Eastern European countries which have lately been alleging EU airspace is being widely sabotaged by Russian drones or at times military aircraft incursions.
United Media/Dyspozytura Trakcji via X: Damaged railway track with shattered concrete sleepers and a deformed steel rail section near Warsaw, Poland — suspected sabotage site under investigation.
As for the location of the alleged train track sabotage, Mika is located a little over 60 miles from Warsaw. It could indeed be part of an ongoing tit-for-tat sabotaging of both Russian and European infrastructure, in a long-running chain of mystery events.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Muslim Brotherhood stole half a billion dollars in Gaza donations, Arab sources reveal
While Farghali noted that it is typical of the Muslim Brotherhood to “exploit Gaza and Palestine for money.”
A photograph shows a displacement camp in Gaza City on November 14, 2025.(photo credit: OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 17, 2025 21:49Updated: NOVEMBER 18, 2025 00:07
The Muslim Brotherhood allegedly stole half a billion dollars in donations for the Gaza Strip in a single campaign, Egyptian researcher Maher Farghali reported on Sunday.
While Farghali noted that it is typical of the Muslim Brotherhood to “exploit Gaza and Palestine for money,” the difference with this incident is that the theft was condemned by Hamas.
The association Waqf al-Ummah/Ummet Vakfı, founded by the Muslim Brotherhood, is said to have been responsible for taking half a billion, which it raised in a single fundraiser in the name of “Gaza.” Waqf al-Ummah has operated out of Turkey since 2013 and is overseen by religious figures.
Hamas learned of the corruption in January 2024 through one of its younger members, Khaled Mansour, who was investigating Waqf al-Ummah and the associated individuals. Over the last few days, Mansour (@mansourgaza) has been posting repeatedly about the situation, including detailing the figures stolen.
‘The biggest theft scandal in the history of the Islamic movement’
“How is it conceivable that many Brotherhood elites and Islamists remain silent about the biggest theft scandal in the history of the Islamic movement of the funds of the people of Gaza,” he wrote yesterday.
Hamas released a statement, which was viewed by The Jerusalem Post, on learning of the incident back in January 2024, titled “exposing and disavowing certain institutions and individuals,” in which it prohibited any dealings with Waqf al-Ummah.
Hamas spoke of “suspicious campaigns and funds collected in the name of Gaza, administered by some institutions abroad that exploited the emotions of our people and supporters under the pretext of relief and humanitarian aid.”
Hamas then said it has “no relationship whatsoever with these institutions and campaigns, does not supervise them, and has not authorized anyone to collect donations on its behalf.”
It claimed that it carried out an investigation and discovered that said organization “took advantage of the situation in Gaza to collect large sums of money in the name of humanitarian aid but failed to deliver these funds to their rightful recipients.”
It went on to state that “the movement [Hamas] has no relationship with the entity called: ‘Waqf al-Ummah’ (The Ummah Endowment Foundation)” and disavows several individuals associated with the movement named: Saeed Ibrahim “Abu Yunus,” Fouad al-Dweib, Samer Saeed Abdullah al-Sammari, Khaldoun Hijazi, Ahmed al-Amri, and Zaid Omar Jaber.
According to Farghali, Waqf al-Ummah has been running a large-scale marketing effort involving media figures working at Al Jazeera, as well as scholars and clerics, in recent days. “It spanned satellite channels, print media, and online outlets, and they organized conferences in Turkey to mobilize people to donate,” he noted on Sunday.
end
ISRAEL AND WEST BANK
One killed, three Israelis wounded in ramming, stabbing terror attack in Gush Etzion junction area
While at the scene, security forces found several explosive devices in the vehicle used by the terrorists, which are currently being defused at the scene by West Bank border police.
ByYANIR YAGNA, JERUSALEM POST STAFF, TPSNOVEMBER 18, 2025 14:17Updated: NOVEMBER 18, 2025 15:52
One person was killed and three were wounded in a ramming and stabbing attack at the Gush Etzion junction, Magen David Adom said on Tuesday.
One woman in her 40s was severely wounded, and two others, a 30 and a 15-year-old, were moderately wounded in the attack.
Two terrorists arrived in a vehicle at the junction, rammed into civilians standing nearby, then exited the vehicle and attempted to stab those in the area.
The two terrorists were neutralized by reservists who happened to be in the area, Israeli media reported.
The three are being evacuated by medical personnel to Shaare Zedek Medical Center and Hadassah-University Medical Center in Ein Karem for further treatment.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3975668&url=www.jpost.comIsraeli security forces respond after a ramming and stabbing terror attack in the Gush Etzion Junction area of the West Bank. November 18, 2025. (Credit: Assaf Passy)
The military has begun cordoning off Palestinian towns in the area of the attack and setting up roadblocks. Authorities suspect that one of the attackers was a resident of Hebron, and another came from Beit Ummar, according to Walla.
“When we arrived at the scene, we identified that this was a serious and complex incident,” MDA Paramedic Uriel Lavi said.
“We located several injured individuals suffering from penetrating wounds. We provided them with initial medical treatment on-site, and after stabilizing their condition, we evacuated them for further treatment at the hospital.”
Credit given to reservists at the scene for neutralizing terrorists
“Security forces arrived very quickly at the scene,” Gush Etzion spokesperson Akiva Speigelman said. “The terrorists were neutralized quickly thanks to the initiative of those at the station.”
This is a developing story.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Who is behind Al-Majd, the Israeli-linked evacuation group sending Gazans to South Africa?
Al-Majd’s operation to evacuate Palestinians from Gaza has sparked controversy, with claims of human trafficking and ties to a questionable Estonian-Israeli businessman.
Palestinians wait to buy bread from a distribution point in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, November 17, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/Haseeb Alwazeer)ByMATHILDA HELLERNOVEMBER 17, 2025 20:01Updated: NOVEMBER 17, 2025 21:31
Al-Majd, the organization behind the mysterious evacuation of 153 Palestinians from Gaza to South Africa, is seemingly led by an Estonian-Israeli man based in London, raising questions over whether it may be an Israeli shell company.
The organization was allegedly established in 2010 in Germany to provide humanitarian aid and education. However, it is not listed in the public Charity Register maintained by the Federal Central Tax Office (BZSt).
Additionally, the email address provided on Al-Majd’s website bounced back with automated messages stating it does not exist when The Jerusalem Post checked on Sunday. Al Jazeera reported that it has no office at its registered address in Sheikh Jarrah in Jerusalem.
Haaretz reported that an older version of the website showed a logo for an Estonian company named Talent Globus, registered a year ago under a Mr. Tomer Janar Lind.
Although Talent Globus lists three other staff members aside from Lind, the Post could not find any matches for the listed individuals elsewhere on the Internet. Additionally, the social media addresses and the phone number listed were invalid.
Lind’s LinkedIn page
According to Lind’s LinkedIn page, he founded a second company called Kalev Consulting in Doha, Qatar, in January 2025. Kalev Consulting claims to provide “relocation and travel support” and “government and NPO liaison,” but its phone number is invalid, and it lists its location as Dubai.
His LinkedIn also contains multiple posts about helping Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza dating back 10 months, when he wrote, “I’m considering creating a separate charity focused on supporting the evacuation of Palestinians for humanitarian purposes and promoting the Palestinian cause.”
Since then, Lind has claimed he was “able to assist a substantial number of Gazans with evacuation efforts and humanitarian aid” and that he had shifted “from recruitment into humanitarian support, a shift driven by a deep commitment to stand with Palestinians, especially those in Gaza, during crisis.”
A search of Lind led to the three dissolved companies in the UK with sparse details, and a fourth active company with overdue filings, which is set to be struck off. According to UK Government data, Lind was born in June 1989.
The nationality listed for his first company in 2015 was Estonian. Still, for his second and subsequent companies from 2017 onward, he is listed as Estonian-Israeli, indicating that he acquired Israeli citizenship between 2015 and 2017.
A family tree created by Lind on an online genealogy site was also discovered by the Post – the surnames of both parents are not Lind.
The Post called Lind’s British phone number, which it found on an online listing for Talent Globus, and asked whether he could confirm his involvement with Al-Majd. He replied that “an official statement will be released at a later date,” but that he had “no comment at this time.” He declined to provide further comment on other questions.
Returning to Al-Majd, the organization’s website now features a pop-up claiming it is “operating normally and has not been affected” and promising to continue with the “utmost professionalism.” It alluded to “false information” circulating, but its website forms are open as normal.
The only two listed employees are “Adnan, the Al-Quds humanitarian project coordinator,” and “Muayad, the Gaza humanitarian project manager.”
When the Post contacted both over WhatsApp using the numbers featured in the previous pop-up, neither responded.
An unnamed passenger on the flight to South Africa spoke to Al Jazeera via video (with blurring). He said he paid $6,000 for his family of three to be evacuated, and that the payment was made to bank accounts owned by individuals and not an organization. According to him, his group was the second to leave Gaza with Al-Majd. The first arrived in Indonesia in June, and his cohort was supposed to exit on August 20, but was delayed.
At 10 p.m. the day before departure, the passengers received a call from a private number telling them that they would be leaving at 5 a.m. the next day, and that buses would be waiting at a designated area in Gaza.
The interviewee noted that this was coordinated with the Israeli army, as otherwise the buses would not have been allowed in. From here, the passengers travelled through Rafah to the Kerem Shalom crossing, and on to Israel’s Ilan and Asaf Ramon Airport, where they took a Romanian plane to Nairobi. Their passports were not stamped, allegedly because of Israel’s non-recognition of a Palestinian state.
He also told Al Jazeera that the passengers knew nothing of their final destination.
The Post reached out to the CEO of the airline – FLYYO – as well as Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, for comment.
PA accuses Israel of human trafficking
According to the Palestinian Authority, there was no prior notification or coordination with South African authorities regarding the planeload of people.
The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said it wants to “warn companies and entities that mislead our people, incite them to deportation or displacement, or engage in human trafficking, that they will bear legal consequences for their unlawful actions and will be subject to prosecution and accountability.”
“The ministry calls on our people, especially those in the Gaza Strip, to exercise caution and not fall victim to human trafficking, blood traders, or displacement agents.”
END
SAUDI ARABIA/USA/ISRAEL
it is official: Trump confirms USA will sell F 35 to Saudi Arabia. Now will SA join the Abraham Accords
(zerohedge)
US President Trump confirms United States will sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia
Trump confirmed the sale during a press conference in the White House ahead of an upcoming meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
US President Donald Trump speaks inside the Oval Office, at the White House in Washington, DC, November 12, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 17, 2025 22:40Updated: NOVEMBER 18, 2025 04:05
United States President Donald Trump said he plans to approve the sale of US-made F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia on Monday, speaking a day before he hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for a day of diplomacy.
“I will say that we will be doing that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “We’ll be selling the F-35s.”
A sale would mark a significant policy shift, potentially altering the military balance in the Middle East and testing Washington’s definition of maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge.”
Saudi Arabia has requested to buy as many as 48 F-35 fighter jets, a potential multibillion-dollar deal that has cleared a key Pentagon hurdle ahead of the prince’s visit, Reuters reported early this month.
The Saudis have long been interested in Lockheed Martin’s fighter. A senior White House official told Reuters before Trump spoke that the president wanted to talk to the crown prince about the jets, “then we’ll make a determination.”
Saudi Arabia may join Abraham Accords ‘very shortly,’ Trump tells reporters
Trump shared hopes that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords “very shortly” during a press conference with reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday.
Trump stated that there has been “tremendous interest” in the normalization efforts and that he will be discussing the accords with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a White House meeting set to take place later this month, when they are expected to sign economic and defense agreements.
He emphasized that interest in the Abraham Accords has grown since June’s joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that “put Iran out of business” and confirmed that it will be a topic of discussion during the US-Saudi meeting
end.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Sen. Graham Touts Movement On New Russian Sanctions Bill ‘With Trump’s Blessing’
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 11:45 AM
Sen. Lindsey Graham announced Monday the Senate is taking up legislation that would sanction Russia’s trading partners, in order to ramp up the pressure on Moscow to end the war with Ukraine.
The announcement came after President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night the proposed legislation would be “OK with me” – which marked his strongest signal yet that he’s planning on signing off on it.
Graham, a Russia hawk (and pretty much hawkish on all other conflicts and official US ‘enemies’ in the world) unveiled the move forward on the legislation “with President Trump’s blessing.”
He described the necessity of yet more sanctions in order to “continue the momentum to end this war honorably, justly and once and for all.”
“This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him,” Graham wrote. “I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.”
“The Senate will move soon on a tough sanctions bill — not only against Russia — but also against countries like China and India that buy Russian energy products that finance Putin’s war machine,” Graham additionally stated. “The Senate bill has a presidential waiver to give President Trump maximum leverage.”
“When it comes to Putin and those who support his war machine, it is time to change the game,” he continued. Further, Graham again verified that Trump “is looking at [the bill] very strongly.” But Trump wants the ultimate final say-so:
Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a co-sponsor of the bill, worked to include the presidential waiver to satisfy a White House request to give Trump more options, according to Politico.
US media is framing this as part of Trump “losing patience” with Putin over ending the war; however, the reality remains that Kiev and its Western backers have been unwilling to offer territorial concessions. Finally ceding Crimea hasn’t even been on the table.
“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump recently told reporters. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” And Graham responded to Trump’s words by saying the president “is spot on about the games Putin is playing.”
Lately, amid a ‘civil war’ in MAGA-land in the wake of the Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes interview, many of Trump’s supporters have vehemently complained that Trump is too much in neocon Lindsey Graham’s corner on foreign policy. His administration certainly didn’t start off like that.
END
RUSSIA/POLAND/UKRAINE/RAIL SABOTAGE
Two Ukrainians Working For Russian Intelligence Behind Unprecedented Rail Sabotage: Poland Claims
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 12:25 PM
Warsaw authorities have now laid official blame on the sabotage attack on Poland’s rail network which was uncovered Sunday, and could have led to the derailing of a train. As everyone expected, they are looking squarely at Moscow.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Tuesday that an investigation at the scene points to two Ukrainian citizens who have “long worked for Russian intelligence” as the prime suspects in the case.
A train track linking the Polish cities of Warsaw and Lublin had been destroyed in an “unprecedented act of sabotage”. Tusk described the damaged railway is as crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine.
“The goal was to cause a rail catastrophe,” Tusk told members of Polish parliament in a briefing on Tuesday. He identified that at one of the two specific sabotage sites a military-grade C4 explosive charge was used.
BBC reports that “Another incident further down the line near Pulawy forced a crowded train to stop suddenly and damage was found to overhead cables.”
An “explosive device” blew up the rail track, with the the act “directly (targeted) the security of the Polish state and its civilians” – Tusk has also said.
Follow-up statements by Polish investigators said that “everything points to them being Russian special services” – in reference to the pair of Ukrainian nationals believed behind the plot. Tusk says that one of the men lives in eastern Ukraine and another is living in Belarus.
Additionally, Poland’s security services minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, has described attack on a section of the track near Mika village as “a new stage of threatening the railway infrastructure.” The severe damage was found some 80 miles from the Ukrainian border.
While Polish investigators say they’ve identified the perpetrators, it doesn’t look like they are in custody, and are likely still on the run. Some regional observers have raised the possibility of a ‘false flag’ – as it remains hard to independently verify any information coming out of NATO countries’ authorities.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal had condemned the apparent sabotage op, writing on X that he and his country stand with Poland. “Those behind hostile acts against (European Union) and NATO members must be exposed. Our response must be united.”
European countries have long complained of Russian-sponsored ‘hybrid warfare’ against EU critical infrastructure. They also say that Russia is behind mystery drone incursions which have at times disrupted busy commercial airports as as well as military flights.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
Ultraprocessed Foods Linked To Increased Risk Of Precancerous Colorectal Tumors: Study
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A new study revealed that ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) may be linked to a rise in colon cancers among young people across the globe.
The first-of-its-kind study, which took place over 24 years, found that young people who consumed high levels of ultra-processed foods reported a surge in being diagnosed with adenomas and colon polyps, which often lead to colorectal cancer.
“Those with the highest quintile of UPF intake had a statistically significant 45 percent higher odds of early-onset colorectal conventional adenomas compared with the lowest quintile,” the study published Nov. 13 in the journal JAMA Oncology found.
The study followed 29,105 female registered nurses between June 1, 1991, through June 1, 2015. Male nurses were not part of the study.
Overall, 1,189 participants, born between 1947 and 1964, were diagnosed with early-onset conventional adenomas and 1,598 were diagnosed with serrated lesions.
Women who had a higher intake of ultraprocessed foods seemingly had an increased risk of early-onset conventional adenomas but not serrated lesions, the study claimed.
“Our findings support the importance of reducing the intake of ultra-processed foods as a strategy to mitigate the rising burden of early-onset colorectal cancer,” senior author and gastroenterologist Dr. Andrew Chan wrote.
Chan defined ultra-processed foods as “ready-to-eat foods that often contain high levels of sugar, salt, saturated fat and food additives.”
“The increased risk seems to be fairly linear, meaning that the more ultra-processed foods you eat, the more potential that it could lead to colon polyps.”
Not all polyps are cancerous. However, the number of people under 50 being diagnosed with colorectal cancer increased by 2 percent in 2025, according to a report by the American Medical Association in July.
Colorectal cancer incidence rates increased by 500 percent in ages 10 to 14, went up 333 percent in teens aged 15 to 19, and went up 185 percent in young adults aged 20 to 24, the American Medical Association reported over the summer, citing CDC data from 1999 to 2020.
Colon cancer is usually a condition associated with people older than 50, but more and more young people across the world have been diagnosed with early-onset colon cancer, according to the Mayo Clinic.
“In about 20 percent of people with early-onset colon cancer, a genetic condition is the underlying cause. However, most people diagnosed with early-onset colon cancer have no such condition,” the Mayo Clinic reported.
Doctors have noticed that young people being diagnosed with early-onset colon cancer usually have fewer varieties of bacteria in their gut than “healthy people,” used antibiotics early in life, had a high intake of sugary drinks and processed foods while young and spent time at a desk or watching television for hours at a time while young.
Colorectal cancer is the second-leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States.
END
UK
“You Can’t Handle the Truth”: UK Health Watchdog Reportedly Refuses To Release Data On Vaccine Deaths
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 03:30 AM
The United Kingdom’s public health service is reportedly refusing to release data on the potential relationship between the COVID vaccine and excess deaths.
The reason?
It would upset people to know the truth.
The question is whether British citizens have become so passive and yielding that they will support their government, keeping them from learning the facts about vaccines and allowing them to reach their own conclusions.
The UK has long embraced speech controls and censorship to protect citizens from unacceptable views or what one criminal defendant was told were “toxic ideologies.”
Social media companies assisted governments in censoring opposing scientific views during the pandemic, including those regarding the potential dangers of the vaccines.
Over the years, dissenting faculty members have been forced out of scientific and academic organizations for challenging preferred conclusions on subjects ranging from transgender transitions to COVID-19 protections to climate change. Some were barred from speaking at universities or blacklisted for their opposing views.
Many of the exiled experts were ultimately proven correct in challenging the efficacy of surgical masks or the need to shut down our schools and businesses. Scientists moved like a herd of lemmings on the origin of the virus, crushing those who suggested that the most likely explanation is a lab leak (a position that federal agencies would later embrace).
Scientists have worked with the government in suppressing dissenting views. For example, The Wall Street Journal released a report on how the Biden administration suppressed dissenting views supporting the lab leak theory, as dissenting scientists were blacklisted and targeted.
When experts within the Biden Administration found that the lab theory was the most likely explanation for COVID-19, they were told not to share their data publicly and were warned about being “off the reservation.”
Universities and associations joined the crackdown. Scientists questioning the efficacy of those blue surgical masks and the six-foot rule were suppressed. So were those arguing that we should, as in Europe, keep schools open. These experts were also later vindicated, but few were rehired or reestablished in universities or associations.
It was all done in the name of protecting the public from opposing views or data.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that little has changed.
According to the Telegraph, the agency declared that releasing the data would lead to the “distress or anger” of bereaved relatives if a link were to be discovered.
It also suggested that the data might stress or undermine the mental health of the families and friends of people who died.
The story has received little attention in the media, which previously joined efforts to suppress opposing views during the pandemic.
We have no idea what the data actually says, but there should be uniform agreement that the public has a right to know.
The controversy is reminiscent of the position of the British courts on sharing information with patients. In the United States, there is a strong common law in favor of disclosing to patients any risks or complications associated with possible treatments or surgeries. In the UK, the courts took a more deferential view of doctors. As with the agency’s position, the rationale was hard for many in the United States to comprehend, let alone accept.
For example, in Sidaway v. Bethlem Royal Hospital (1985), the court rejected the need for a surgeon to inform a patient of a low risk of nerve damage from a laminectomy, writing:
“I confess that I reach this conclusion with no regret. The evidence in this case showed that a contrary result would be damaging to the relationship of trust and confidence between doctor and patient, and might well have an adverse effect on the practice of medicine. It is doubtful whether it would be of any significant benefit to patients, most of whom prefer to put themselves unreservedly in the hands of their doctors.”
The decision to withhold the data on vaccines shows the same arrogant assumptions.
If I had a loved one who died from the vaccine, I would like to know about it.
The government is essentially arguing a Jessup rule that “you can’t handle the truth.”
We will now see if the British people have lost all self-respect and separation from their government in yielding to this decision.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
China’s Oil Stockpiling Accelerated In October
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 11:00 AM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
China stockpiled crude oil at elevated rates in October, at a daily rate of some 690,000 barrels, up from 570,000 barrels daily in September, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported today, citing calculations derived from official Beijing data.
Refinery throughput in October averaged 14.94 million barrels daily, the official data showed, while imports ran at a rate of 11.39 million barrels daily, Russell reported.
The refinery throughput figure was a 6.4% increase on the year, suggesting healthy demand for oil, but it was also a decline on September’s 15.26 million bpd average.
The September figure was a two-year high.
Imports, meanwhile, averaged 11.39 million barrels daily in October, adding to local production of 4.24 million barrels daily for a total daily supply rate of 15.63 million barrels.
The difference between supply and demand, as based on refinery runs, is assumed to be going into storage, although some of it might be processed by small refineries that are not included in the official data, Russell notes in his regular reports on the state of China’s oil market.
This stockpiling on the part of China has become a major reason for the relative stability of oil prices.
It is based on the rather reasonable assumption that if China, the world’s largest oil importer, has built a supply cushion in case of disruption, then a surge in demand following such a disruption is unlikely. This assumption has acted as one more lid on prices, along with regular reports about electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines in the world’s biggest car market.
Over the first ten months of the year, China was stockpiling crude at a daily rate of 900,000 barrels, the Reuters report also said, giving a rather comfortable size to that supply cushion in case of disruption, such as the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
MEXICO/COLUMBIA
Trump Suggests Airstrikes On Cartels In Mexico, Colombia: ‘Okay With Me’
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 08:30 PM
President Donald Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office on Monday that potential military strikes in Mexico to disrupt the drug trade would be “okay with me”.
He expressed rare openness to direct Pentagon action inside America’s neighbor to the immediate south, at a moment of ongoing deadly drone strikes on alleged drug boats off the coast of Venezuela. This is sure to turn US-Mexico relations in a more negative direction, but Trump doesn’t seem overly concerned with this as he ramps up the pressure, also on Colombia.
He said he’d be willing to do this to prevent drugs from entering the United States, and further he’d be proud to “knock out” cocaine factories in Colombia.
On Colombia, where the president, his family and top officials have recently been hit with US sanctions, Trump said as follows:
“Colombia has cocaine factories where they make cocaine. Would I knock out those factories? I would be proud to do it personally. I didn’t say I’m doing it, but I would be proud to do it because we’re going to save millions of lives by doing it.”
This renewed war on drugs rhetoric has been met with immense controversy, including among some US Congress members who demand a Congressional vote before war is declared on Venezuela or any other sovereign Latin American country.
But the administration has also been utilizing ‘terrorism’ labels to justify strikes, which up to now has included targeting over twenty alleged drug boats and killing some 80 people.
Trump really focused the bulk of the Monday comments with putting Mexico on notice:
The State Department designated six Mexican drug cartels, along with Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations in February.
The president indicated on Monday that he would go to Congress to ask for permission for the strikes and predicted the potential actions would be supported by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
“So let me just put it this way,” he said. “I am not happy with Mexico.”
Watch the full exchange below:
Last month, as attacks on drug boats in the southern Caribbean escalated, Trump expressed something similar on the question of bypassing Congress. “I’m not going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war,” he said at the time. “I think we’re just doing to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country. Okay? We’re going to kill them, you know, they’re going to be like, dead.”
Without doubt, leaders in Mexico City and Bogota are increasingly nervous over such rhetoric – but there’s little in reality they could do if their sovereignty were violated by US military action. Clearly Trump thinks these corrupt countries have not done enough to dismantle the cartels, which has in turn fueled the drug crisis in America.
END
VENEZUELA/USA
Trump, floating talks with Maduro, declines to rule out troops in Venezuela
President Trump says he hasn’t ruled out US troops in Venezuela and is open to talks with Maduro, while emphasizing his focus on combating drug trafficking.
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro gestures as he takes part in a march with young members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) in Caracas, Venezuela, November 13, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/LEONARDO FERNANDEZ VILORIA)ByREUTERSNOVEMBER 18, 2025 04:14
President Donald Trump said on Monday he has not ruled out putting American forces on the ground in Venezuela, while expressing a willingness to hear directly from Nicolas Maduro regarding the Venezuelan leader’s proposals to avert further US military escalation.
Asked if he would rule out US troops on the ground in the South American country, Trump said: “No, I don’t rule out that, I don’t rule out anything.”
Still, questioned if he would speak to Maduro directly, Trump told reporters at the White House: “I probably would talk to him, yeah. I talk to everybody.”
Maduro, when asked about Trump’s comments on Monday, said differences should be resolved through diplomacy and that he is willing to hold face-to-face talks with anyone interested.
“In the United States, whoever wants to talk with Venezuela will talk, face to face, without any problem,” Maduro said on his weekly state television program.
The US has been waging a campaign of deadly strikes against suspected drug trafficking boats off the Venezuelan coast and the Pacific coast of Latin America.
Maduro has repeatedly alleged that a US military buildup in the Caribbean is designed to drive him from power.
Taken as a whole, Trump’s comments suggest he is willing to dramatically escalate his administration’s confrontation with Venezuela, even as he is open to seeking an off-ramp if presented with an interesting enough proposal from the Venezuelan government.
The US president also said he would like to knock out cocaine factories in Colombia, while stopping short of announcing any direct military intervention there.
While Trump has focused his Venezuela-related efforts on tamping down the flow of narcotics, he is also aware that the nation – which holds the world’s greatest known oil reserves – is “a very resource-rich country,” a senior White House official told Reuters.
“Just because the president is perhaps interested in hearing what Venezuela has to say does not take off his military options from the table,” cautioned the official, who requested anonymity to discuss diplomatic conversations.
The official said there were many advantages that Venezuela could offer US firms, though the main priority now is stopping drugs.
Trump administration designates Maduro-linked cartel
On Sunday, the Trump administration designated the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization. The US has alleged that the group is made up of high-ranking Venezuelan officials, including Maduro.
Some independent researchers have said that while Venezuelan officials are involved in drug trafficking, there is little proof of a top-down, hierarchical organization that could be traditionally called a cartel.
The Pentagon said on Sunday before Trump’s latest comments that the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, with 5,000 military personnel and dozens of warplanes on board, and its strike group moved into the Caribbean. That added to the eight warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft already sent to the region.
So far, the Trump administration has focused its efforts on bombing boats allegedly carrying drugs that have departed from the shoreline of Venezuela and other Latin American countries.
Human rights groups have condemned those strikes as extrajudicial killings of civilians. The White House says the US is at war with drug cartels and courts aren’t needed in armed conflicts
END
CHILE.
Trump-Style Conservative Favored Against Communist Candidate As Chile Enters Presidential Run-Off
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 11:00 PM
The consensus out of a closely watched presidential race in Chile is that the Right is rising and holds the upper hand, after a Sunday vote produced no clear winner between Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party, and José Antonio Kast, an ultraconservative lawyer who has expressed admiration for Donald Trump.
A run-off is now scheduled for December 14. Sunday’s election, in which neither secured the necessary majority to be declared winner, saw the left-wing Jara finish slightly ahead in the initial round.
However, Kast is favored in the run-off election given that the vote on the right was divided among several candidates, while Jara was the only one on the far Left. But now the lone contender representing the Right, Kast is expected to sweep up these additional votes in December.
The supporters of the now eliminated center-right Senator Evelyn Matthei and libertarian Congressman Johannes Kaiser are expected to get behind former lawmaker Kast for president. In total the three right-wing candidates got over 50% of the vote compared to results in the low 30% range for the left.
This would mark yet another rightward turn in Latin American politics generally, which could also suggest the broader regional influence of Trump messaging.
Kast declared on election night Chile must avoid continuing what he lambasted as “a very bad government – perhaps the worst in Chile’s democratic history.”
The Associated Press describes his staunch conservative platform as follows:
José Antonio Kast, an ultraconservative lawyer opposed to abortion and same-sex marriage, appears to be in pole position after nearly 70% of votes went to right-wing candidates in Sunday’s first round, as many Chileans worry about organized crime, illegal immigration and unemployment in one of Latin America’s safest and most prosperous nations.
Kast is a surprise front-runner who speaks fondly of aspects of the country’s period of dictatorship and broke with the traditional conservative party to found his own Republican Party.
And The New York Times talks about Kast’s ‘Trump-style’ approach:
José Antonio Kast, the main conservative contender in Chile’s presidential election and a candidate who has borrowed liberally from President Trump’s playbook, secured second place in voting Sunday, advancing to a runoff that polls predict he will win.
If the polls prove correct, Chile will join a series of Latin American countries, including Argentina and Bolivia, that have shifted to the right in recent years.
As for Jara, she has declared Kast as a ‘threat’ to the country. “Democracy in our country must be protected and valued. We worked hard to regain it, and today it is under threat.”
The question of rising crime on Chilean streets alongside increased immigration has been high on the agenda and featured heavily in public debate. Like with the US, Venezuela has been a name front and center in the immigration discourse.
Of Chile’s nearly 20 million people, at least 1.9 million are foreign nationals. International outlets have calculated this marks an increase of over 46% since 2018. And many of the some 330,000 estimated undocumented migrants are from Venezuela. This has sparked anger and uncertainty among Chileans, especially those in the center and which lean right.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1595 UP 0.00105 PTS OR 5 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS LOWERER
USA/ YEN 155.09 DOWN 0.185 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3159 UP .0005 OR 05 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4042 DOWN 0.0008 CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 32.22 PTS OR 0.81%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 454.25 PTS OR 1.72%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.94%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 454.25PTS OR 1.72%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.22 POINTS OR 0.81%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.94 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1620.93 PTS OR 3.22%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4041.05
silver:$50.28
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.40 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.0350 % DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.752% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.322 UP 7 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.196 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.442 down 1/2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6902 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1596 UP 0.0007 OR 7 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.306 UP 0.036 OR YEN IS DOWN 4 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.532 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.352 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS pts to 1.4011
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The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1091 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1109
TURKISH LIRA: 42.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.752 UP 2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.322 UP 7 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.099% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.719 DOWN 3 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.562 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4072,00
SILVER AT 10;00: 50.67
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 22.94 PTS OR 0.24%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 409.99 pts or 1.74%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 151.09 pts or 1.86%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 345.60 pts or 2.14%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 928.64. or 2.12%
WTI Oil price 59.77 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 63.87 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.96 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 29/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.225 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.795 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1583 DOWN 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3151 DOWN .0004 OR 4 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5590 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.398 UP 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.748 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.310 UP 6 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.53 UP 0.253 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3952 DOWN 0.0069 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 69 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 60.88
Brent OIL: 64.96
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.122
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 PTS to 4.744%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.578 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.260 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.824 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.48 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.33 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.13 UP 0 AND 12/100 roubles //
GOLD $4072.20 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 50.90 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 494.16 OR 1.06%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 296.82 PTS OR 1.20%
VOLATILITY INDEX 23.93 UP 1.58 PTS OR 7.06%
GLD: $ 374.35 UP 2.70 PTS OR 0.73%
SLV/ $46.10 UP 0.63 PTS OR OR 1.39%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 7.97 PTS OR 0.03%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bitcoin, Bullion, & Bonds Bid As Jobs Data Sparks Rise In Rate-Cut Odds
WRAPUP;
US stocks tumble again but close off lows as markets await NVIDIA earnings – Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 04:29 PM
- US stocks were lower, albeit settling well off troughs, as mega-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary and Technology underperformed amid continued concerns regarding AI overvaluation.
- Worries were heightened on Tuesday, as Rothschild downgraded both Amazon and Microsoft, saying itʼs time to take a more cautious stance on AI hyperscalers.
- US data painted a sluggish picture of the labour market, as jobless claims printed 232k (w/e 18th Oct), while weekly ADP saw 2.5k jobs shed a week for the four weeks ending 1st Nov, an improvement W/W but still languishing.
- The crude complex saw gains, albeit on no specific headline, but upside coincided with Trumpʼs/Saudi Crown Prince conference.
- Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand PPI, Japanese Trade Balance, Australian Composite Leading Index, Australian Wage Price Index, Speech from Fed’s Logan, and supply from Australia and Japan.
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SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
- US stocks were lower, albeit settling well off troughs, as mega-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary and Technology underperformed amid continued concerns regarding AI overvaluation. These worries were heightened on Tuesday, as Rothschild downgraded both Amazon and Microsoft, saying it’s time to take a more cautious stance on AI hyperscalers. For the record, Health and Energy sit atop of the sectorial breakdown, with the latter buoyed by strength in the crude complex, albeit not on any specific headline driver.
- SPX -0.83% at 6,617, NDX -1.20% at 24,503, DJI -1.05% at 46,103, RUT +0.21% at 2,346.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič said the EU plans to introduce restrictions on EU exports of aluminium scrap, according to Reuters.
- Germany’s Finance Minister said Germany must do its homework and diversify supply chains with regard to rare earths, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said China is on schedule in buying US farm products but wants China to speed up soybean purchases, adding that he wants Treasury Secretary Bessent to tell China to accelerate those purchases, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he has begun interviews for Fed Chair and would love to remove Powell immediately, adding he thinks he already knows his choice; he said there are some surprising names under consideration but he may go the standard route, and noted that people are holding him back from firing Powell, according to Reuters.
- The US Department of Labor said weekly jobless-claims data will be released on Thursday and that a technical issue caused an early posting of some of the claims data, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said high housing prices may still reflect a supply shortage rooted in the 2007–2009 financial crisis, with housing supply constrained even as demand has grown; he said he worries about banks’ exposure to private credit and agreed with Chair Powell that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. He said there are still pressures on both sides of the mandate, with job growth down and labour supply slowing. On inflation, he said it is above target but unlikely to accelerate, and while it does not appear headed higher it is also not clear it is returning to 2%. He said he hopes upcoming data and community surveys will clarify the economic direction, noted that credit-card spending and Q3 earnings remain healthy though some sectors and consumers are struggling, and said that without compelling data it is hard to reach a broad consensus. He said policy is still modestly restrictive. On the labour market, he said he is not hearing of firms planning further layoffs, that the market is softening but likely not by much, and that it is hard to declare victory on either mandate though neither clearly requires a policy response; he expects unemployment to edge higher but not by much, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Barr (voter) said effective supervision requires a credible rating system and warned that moves to weaken bank supervision present real dangers, via the Federal Reserve.
- A CoreWeave (CRWV) executive said the company has almost doubled its revenue backlog in the last quarter and that the supply environment has impacted it, with one provider delayed on data-centre deliveries by a few weeks, according to Reuters.
- Meta (META) won its FTC antitrust trial over the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, with the judge ruling the deals did not create an illegal monopoly, according to Bloomberg.
- Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA) and Anthropic announced a strategic partnership in which MSFT and NVDA will invest up to USD 10bln and USD 5bln respectively in Anthropic, while Anthropic has committed to buy USD 30bln of Azure compute capacity and contract up to 1GW of additional compute capacity, according to Reuters. NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are committing to invest in Anthropic’s next fundraising round, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Cloudflare said it was aware of and investigating an issue potentially impacting multiple customers, and later reported that a fix had been implemented, according to the company’s system status page.
- US President Trump posted that “the only healthcare I will support or approve is sending the money directly back to the people, with nothing going to the big, fat, rich insurance companies, who have made $trillions and ripped off America long enough”, via Truth Social.
- JPMorgan COO Pinto said the US economy is not likely to enter a recession; on AI he said there is likely to be a “correction” in AI valuations at some point, and added that upside for the S&P from here is relatively limited, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- US jobless claims at 232k in the October 18th week, via DOL; continuing claims 1.957mln. Note, the last release was for the week of the 20th of September at 219k for initial claims. The last release for continuing claims was for the week of October 11th at 1.947mln.
- Weekly ADP Employment Change (Four weeks, ending 1st Nov 2025): -2,500/week (prev. -11,250/week).
- US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM (Aug) 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
- US Factory Ex-Transp MM (Aug) 0.1% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.5%)
- US Factory Orders MM (Aug) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -1.3%)
- US Durable Goods, R MM (Aug) 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%)
- US Durables Ex-Def, R MM (Aug) 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
- US NAHB Housing Market Indx (Nov) 38.0 vs. Exp. 37.0 (Prev. 37.0)
- US Durables Ex-Transpt R MM (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
FX
- The Dollar was more-or-less flat, with DXY trading between 99.396-662. US jobs data on Tuesday painted a sluggish picture of the labour market.
- G10 FX was mixed. CAD, AUD, and NZD were the clear gainers, GBP and EUR were flat, while JPY and CHF saw weakness. CAD and AUD were buoyed by firmer commodity prices, and that came despite little move seen in the Aussie overnight on RBA Minutes.
- For the Yen, while the recent sell-off in US equities would usually be a prime opportunity for a recovery in the oversold Yen, its own domestic factors continue to keep USD/JPY bid.
FIXED INCOME
- Treasury curve ultimately steepens in two-way trade
- UK sold GBP 1.25bln 4.75% 2030 Gilt by tender: b/c 3.75x, average yield 3.896%
COMMODITIES
- The crude complex saw gains, albeit on no specific headline, but upside coincided with Trump’s/Saudi Crown Prince conference.
- Goldman Sachs said that as global LNG supply continues to rise faster than Asian demand, it estimates Northwest European storage will face congestion in 2028/29, which would pressure TTF and JKM prices low enough to reduce global LNG supply, according to Reuters.
- Commerzbank expects copper and aluminium to reach USD 12,000/t and USD 3,200/t respectively in 2026, with zinc prices seen settling around USD 3,000/t and nickel prices around USD 16,000/t, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he is working on approving advanced chips for Saudi Arabia, calling Saudi a great ally; he said F-35 jets sold to Saudi will be similar to those sold to Israel and that both Israel and Saudi should receive top-of-the-line F-35s. He said he had a good discussion on the Abraham Accords, that the US has reached a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, and that he can see a civil-nuclear deal happening with the kingdom.
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal very badly, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia will do its best on an Iran deal, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
CHINA-JAPAN
- A senior Japanese official met his counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday to try to ease tensions, but no breakthrough appeared imminent, according to Reuters.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Pill said policymakers are in a series of finely balanced decisions and that underlying inflation dynamics in the UK are lower than the headline suggests; he cautioned against over-interpreting recent changes in key data and said moderation in key nominal data has not occurred to the extent previously expected. He said the QE portfolio held for monetary-policy purposes should be wound down to a very low level and warned that capping yields to halt QT would create a target for speculation. He added he does not expect his view on rates to shift much, according to Reuters.
- BoE’s Dhingra said interest rates should be brought to the neutral level soon and added that UK disposable income is just as weak as consumption.
- Barclays forecast a 2026 year-end target of 620 for the Stoxx 600 and adjusted sector weightings, upgrading Mining and Diversified Financials to Overweight, downgrading Transportation and Business Services to Underweight, and lowering Electricals and Chemicals to Market Weight, according to Reuters.
- The EU Commission said the definitive measures consist of country-specific tariff-rate quotas for each type of ferroalloy, limiting the volume of imports that can enter the EU duty-free, according to Reuters.
- German Chancellor Merz said French and German companies took part in today’s digital sovereignty summit and agreed on additional investments of EUR 12bln, according to Reuters.
USA DATA RELEASES
‘Official’ Initial Jobless Claims Data Released, But…
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 07:51 AM
After more than six weeks of government shutdown, official macro data is starting to flow… but it’s lagged.
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to the Labor Department website. This print certainly shows no sign of the potential weakness that many have anticipated (but then again it’s a month old).
Source: Bloomberg
However, unadjusted state-level claims data was released, and that confirmed a pick up in initial jobless benefit demands… especially in the ‘Deep TriState’…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims picked up, but remains below mid-summer highs…
Source: Bloomberg
So, now we know that a month ago, claims data showed a still resilient labor market.. but we also know – based on private data suppliers – that job cut announcements have accelerated notably…
Source: Bloomberg
So, choose your own adventure with this data. We suspect there will be a lot more of this in the next few days as more and more (delayed) data is released.
end
ADP
ADP Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market; Claims Confirm Resilience
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 08:40 AM
For the four weeks ending Oct. 31, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week, according to ADP’s new weekly employment report update, suggesting that the labor market improved significantly in the last week (from an 11,250 average drop during the prior week).
Extrapolating with some simple math that implies a monthly drop of 10,000 jobs…
While job growth is admittedly sluggish, ADP reports that new hires are on the upswing:
In October, new hires accounted for 4.4 percent of all employees, ADP payroll data shows, up from 3.9 percent a year ago.
This growing share of new hires would seem to run counter to the slowed pace of hiring. That contradiction tells us a lot about today’s jobs market.
New hires typically fluctuates with the business cycle, but the aging U.S. workforce means that demographics have begun playing a bigger role in hiring decisions.
Employers are hiring to replace existing workers, not increase headcount.
ADP continues to note that employers are taking on a bigger share of new hires, even amid a slowdown in job creation.
This suggests that more workers are heading for the exits.
Demographic data also suggests that the drop in new hires isn’t due to normal business cycle dynamics. Thirty-six percent of U.S. workers are 55 or older. In 2015, less than 25 percent U.S. workers were that old.
This change has put employers on new footing. Increasingly, hiring is no longer driven primarily by customer demand and economic fluctuations, but by a need to replace a growing number of departing workers.
Additionally, after more than six weeks of government shutdown, official macro data is starting to flow… but it’s lagged.
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to the Labor Department website. This print certainly shows no sign of the potential weakness that many have anticipated (but then again it’s a month old).
Source: Bloomberg
However, unadjusted state-level claims data was released, and that confirmed a pick up in initial jobless benefit demands… especially in the ‘Deep TriState’…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims picked up, but remains below mid-summer highs…
Source: Bloomberg
So, now we know that a month ago, claims data showed a still resilient labor market.. but we also know – based on private data suppliers – that job cut announcements have accelerated notably…
Source: Bloomberg
So, choose your own adventure with this data. We suspect there will be a lot more of this in the next few days as more and more (delayed) data is released.
END
Factory Orders Data Show Rebound In August
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 10:12 AM
As the macro data engine slowly starts to grind back into motion, we are given glimpses of what happened ‘months’ ago. Earlier we got some jobless claims data from four weeks ago, and now we get Durable Goods and Factory Orders data from August…
…and the data we got was kinda meh…
August Factory orders rose 1.4% MoM (a big swing from the 1.3% MoM decline in July and an even bigger drop in June) but in line with expectations. This bounce lifted Orders by 3.8% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Factory Orders also rose (just 0.1% MoM), lifting orders 1.53% YoY in August…
Source: Bloomberg
More broadly, durable goods orders (final for August) rose 2.9% MoM (up from -2.8% in July) while Core Durable Goods Orders (ex-transports) rose 0.3% MoM (slightly less than the 0.4% expected) but remained solid for the fifth month in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that Core shipments, an input for the GDP calculation, declined 0.4% (vs. +0.6% prior).
So, August was solid, but as a reminder, it’s November!
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
SEATTLE
Trump Threatens To Cancel World Cup In Seattle After Election Of ‘Communist’ Mayor
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 08:05 AM
If Democrats were hoping that the Trump Administration was going to overlook their recent shift towards “democratic socialist” candidates for political office, they should probably rethink their strategy. Federal dollars and favors are unlikely to flow forth from Washington DC into the pockets of Zohran Mamdani in NYC or Katie Wilson in Seattle.
The two newly elected mayors are perhaps more openly Marxist in their policies than any US politician in recent memory. While Mamdani has garnered most of the limelight and media attention over the past year, Wilson has not escaped the notice of Donald Trump. Her political ideas might be even more unhinged than Mamdani’s.
Trump has recently touched on the prospect of moving the World Cup, set to take place in Seattle in 2026, out of the city. He referred to Wilson as “another beauty” and a “very, very liberal-slash-communist mayor.” The World Cup is projected to bring in up to $4 billion in tourist cash to Seattle and add a much needed boost to the struggling city’s economy.
Prompted by an Oval Office reporter who asked about Wilson’s election, Trump made what appears to be his first acknowledgment of Seattle’s incoming mayor. With FIFA President Gianni Infantino by his side, he said of Seattle hosting the games, “If we think there’s going to be the sign of any trouble, I would ask Gianni to move that to a different city. We have a lot of cities who would love to have it number one, and will do it very safely.”
Wilson’s campaign appealed to Gen Z voters frustrated with Seattle’s exploding cost of living crisis. Her promises of subsidized housing to subsidized childcare to free public transit and government operated grocery stores are just the beginning.
In a June 2025 KING5 interview, she described her vision as “Trump-Proofing Seattle” through progressive taxes to fund housing and services, explicitly criticizing corporate influence on land use. Her strategy calls for converting corporate properties and wealth to “community control.”
In 2020 she was part of a coalition that advocated for a 50% cut to funding for Seattle police (defund the police). She is also a proponent of continued wealth taxes which have already run a number of companies out of Seattle, causing thousands of job losses and extensive tax revenues. In response, she argues that businesses should be prevented from leaving the city.
Trump has expressed concerns about safety in Seattle in reference to the World Cup, and his concerns are not unfounded. In September, Vladimir Putin suggested that he might accept Trump’s invitation and attend the World Cup event in the US. With two of the most important political figures in the world visiting Seattle, security will be paramount.
Seattle has a reputation as a radical leftist hotbed filled with people who would like to see both Trump and Putin dead; the presence of a radical leftist mayor does not add much confidence.
END
HOME DEPOT
Basically, it tells the story of the state of the USA economy
(zerohedge)
Home Depot Slashes Outlook As Home-Renovation Demand Continues To Crumble
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 07:15 AM
Home improvement retailer Home Depot slashed its full-year earnings outlook after another weak quarter, citing soft big-ticket spending, a paralyzed housing market, and lackluster seasonal demand. Adjusted EPS is now expected to fall 5%, worse than prior guidance.
Third-quarter comparable sales rose just .2%, far below Bloomberg Consensus estimates of 1.36%. The retailer warned about weak consumer demand as elevated interest rates discourage home buying and remodeling. As a result, consumers are opting for smaller projects rather than upgrading their patios or building new decks.
Snapshot of the third quarter with Bloomberg Consensus estimates:
Comparable sales: +0.2% (miss; est. +1.36%)
- U.S. comps: +0.1% (miss; est. +1.25%)
Total net sales: $41.35 bn (+2.8% y/y) — modest beat (est. $40.97 bn)
- Includes ~$900 m from recent GMS acquisition
Adjusted EPS: $3.74 (miss; est. $3.84; down from $3.78 y/y)
Average ticket: +1.8% (beat est. +1.1% implied)
Other notables:
- Inventories higher than expected ($26.2 bn vs est. $25.0 bn)
- SG&A expenses up 5.9% y/y, above estimates
Management commentary:
- Miss driven mainly by the absence of storm/hurricane activity (hurt disaster-recovery categories) and failure of anticipated sequential demand improvement to appear
- Ongoing headwinds: consumer uncertainty + continued pressure on the housing market, disproportionately hurting big-ticket home-improvement spending
Updated FY 2026 Guidance (previously issued in Aug 2025)
- Sees sales about +3%, saw about +2.8%
- Sees operating margin about 12.6%, saw about 13%, estimate 13.3%
- Sees EPS decline about 6%, saw down about -3%
- Sees adjusted EPS decline about 5%, saw down about 2%
Guidance reflects third-quarter underperformance and a continuation in the home improvement downturn, as we’ve pointed out in recent weeks:
- Consumer Squeeze Hits Home Renovation Spending As Leading Deck-Maker Shares Collapse
- Home Improvement Downturn Flashes Red For Housing Market
Shares of Home Depot are slightly lower in premarket trading in New York, though nothing too notable. However, the long-term chart of the stock shows three clear rejections at the $400 level.
Goldman’s top sector specialist Scott Feiler’s first take on Home Depot earnings…
Will We See Multiple Contraction?: HD stock is -2.5% on a 3% EPS cut. A slight miss was expected here, but the magnitude of the miss and cut, while not huge, does feel slightly worse. It feels just weak enough to make investors really question how quickly to defend the name and slower to play for the 2026 recovery. While the stock being down makes sense, a price reaction more than the 3% cut will likely draw out some interest, given the stock is already -16% off September highs.
On Monday, Feiler told clients this would be a “very important week” for the consumer space. With Home Depot reporting weak demand for big-ticket items, here’s what comes next (read the report).
END
OBAMACARE/
brilliant move if he can do it;
Trump Blasts “Big, Fat, Rich Insurance Companies” As Lawmakers Propose Ways To ‘Fix’ Obamacare
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 10:05 AM
Obamacare remains on center stage nearly a week after the government shutdown ended on Nov. 12.
The health coverage program, formally known as the Affordable Care Act Health Insurance Marketplace, was a driver of the government shutdown as Democrats demanded that temporary enhanced subsidies for the program be made permanent.
The shutdown ended only after Senate Republicans agreed to hold a vote on the matter, though they did not guarantee an outcome.
Democrats generally favor making the enhanced subsidies permanent.
Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have proposed alternatives they say will give Americans greater control over their health care spending and lower premiums.
Trump made it extremely clear what his preferred approach is this morning in a FULL CAPS post on Truth Social: (emphasis ours)
THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH.
THE PEOPLE WILL BE ALLOWED TO NEGOTIATE AND BUY THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, INSURANCE. POWER TO THE PEOPLE!
Congress, do not waste your time and energy on anything else.
This is the only way to have great Healthcare in America!!!
GET IT DONE, NOW.
President DJT
Lawrence Wilson explains below, via The Epoch Times, why Obamacare is a hot issue right now and what both sides are proposing.
Premiums Continue to Rise
Commercial health insurance premiums have risen every year since 2008, according to Health System Tracker, a data collection site run by the nonprofits The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF.
Obamacare premiums have also risen nearly every year since the program began in 2014, with the exception of 2020–2023. Those were the first years of the enhanced premium subsidies, authorized by Congress as a temporary response to COVID-19 health emergencies.
The enhanced subsidies allowed people making more than four times the federal poverty level to buy subsidized coverage. They also capped the out-of-pocket premium costs at 8 percent of a person’s household income, with the government paying the rest. The enhanced subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025.
Rates have risen each year since 2022 and will increase about 26 percent in 2026, on average, for the Benchmark Silver plan.
Direct Payments to Consumers
Trump floated the idea of giving low- and middle-income Americans a direct payment of $2,000 rather than providing a subsidy that is paid to insurance companies.
That would allow people to purchase their own insurance, Trump said in a Nov. 8 social media post. The president added that this would avoid putting more money into a health coverage system that, he said, provided inferior health coverage.
The White House is in discussion with lawmakers about the idea, Trump told reporters on Nov. 14.
“I’ve had personal talks with some Democrats,” he said, adding that the plan would allow consumers to negotiate their own price with an insurer.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is drafting legislation for a similar plan now. His plan would send money directly to individual Health Savings Accounts, much like Trump suggested.
“They can use it to spend on healthcare, so they can buy direct health care, or they can buy insurance, or [use it for] a co-payment or deductible,” Scott told Reporters on Nov. 10.
Consumers could use the funds to buy any plan authorized by their state’s insurance commission, he added.
Scott and some other Republicans believe the enhanced subsidies drive up the cost of health insurance for everyone while masking the increase to consumers.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) speaks during a hearing with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 4, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
“Insurers get paid no matter what—and taxpayers get stuck with the tab,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said in a Nov. 7 speech.
Increasing federal payments in the hope of decreasing costs is “like putting a band-aid on a broken bone,” Cassidy said.
“Instead of paying insurance companies to manage our money, let’s trust Americans to manage their own care—with a pre-funded Federal Flexible Spending Account,” he said.
A Flexible Spending Account is similar to a Health Savings Account but is not owned by the individual and does not roll over from year to year.
Addressing Fraud and Abuse
Republicans generally have been reluctant to extend the enhanced subsidies without also addressing abuse of the Obamacare system, which they say rose dramatically after those subsidies were introduced.
The expiration date indicates that the subsidies were not considered a long-term solution, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said in a Fox News interview on Nov. 16.
“It creates incentives for fraud,” he said.
Data indicates that 4.4 million people are enrolled in Obamacare, apparently without their knowledge, Dr. Oz said. He noted that, unlike 80 percent of health insurance holders, this population has never used their coverage for a doctor visit, prescription, or any other medical service.
“There are discussions around extending the subsidies, if we deal with the fraud, waste, and abuse,” Dr. Oz said.
Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Oct. 16, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Temporary Extension
A bipartisan group of House members has introduced a bill to extend certain tax credits for Obamacare enrollees, which are set to expire at the end of the year.
The bill, sponsored by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), would extend the “enhanced” premium tax credits for one year, avoiding an abrupt end to a financial benefit many Americans have come to rely on.
“While the enhanced premium tax credit created during the pandemic was meant to be temporary, we should not let it expire without a plan in place. My legislation will protect hardworking Virginians from facing health insurance bills they can’t afford, thus losing much-needed access to care,” Kiggans said in a statement.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a retiring lawmaker who helped negotiate the end of the shutdown, voiced optimism that a bipartisan solution is possible.
“I think there are a number of them who are very serious [about working to lower health coverage costs],” Shaheen told reporters on Nov. 10. She added that any solution would have to address the expiring subsidies.
Separately, a group of 32 bipartisan House members wrote to Senate leaders asking that they be included in any discussions on the upcoming health care reform vote.
“If we work together, our hope is that the bill will not only achieve a sixty-vote majority in the Senate, but will also then move to the House for immediate consideration and passage,” the group wrote, led by Kiggans and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).
Adding Income Cap
Reps. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) and Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) have introduced legislation to control the cost of extending the enhanced subsidies by imposing an income cap on recipients.
Currently, anyone earning over four times the federal poverty level can qualify for the subsidy. This proposal would cap enrollment at six times the poverty level, or $192,900 for a family of four.
“This will provide short-term relief while we tackle broader reforms to lower the cost of care,” Kiley said in a Nov. 10 statement.
The plan would save approximately $5 billion over two years, the congressmen estimated.
The Senate is expected to vote on changes to Obamacare by mid-December.
That gives the 20 states and the District of Columbia that operate their own Obamacare marketplaces, plus the federal marketplace, about two weeks to make adjustments to their subsidy offers before 2026 coverage begins. Annual enrollment for Obamacare has been open since Nov. 1.
Any solution approved by the Senate must then pass the House and be signed by the president to become law.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 18, 2025 Issue 7622 | Independent View of the News |
| The Bitcoin intervention on Sunday night reversed a 15-handle ESZ loss and a 72-handle NQZ loss and begat an ESZs rally that persisted until ESZs hit a daily high of 6801.50 at 3:37 ET. ESZs then began a sharp decline, with only one interruption (15-handle rebound from 6:01 ET to 6:32 ET) that took ESZs to a daily low of 6726.50 at 9:27 ET. The inculcated trader buying for early NYSE decline appeared and it was frenetic. ESZs zoomed to 6774.75 at 9:55 ET (48 handles in 28 minutes). Sellers returned; ESZs did a jagged stair-step decline to a new daily low of 6714.75 at 11:17 ET. Illegal manipulation for the European close pushed ESZs to 6748.00 at 11:31 ET. The manipulation fomented momentum buying; ESZs hit 6767.50 at 12:00 ET. ESZs did a slow rollover until they broke down at 12:33 ET. ESZs sank to 6658.50 at 15:03 ET. The last-hour rally took ESZs to 6697.75 at 16:00 ET. @KobeissiLetter: Current situation: 1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks 2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package 3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package 4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st 5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year 6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program 7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion 8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way? @MikeZaccardi: Megaphone Pattern + Death Cross: Bitcoin’s Technicals Flash a Warning https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1990456187754590433 Positive aspects of previous session USZs rallied modestly. Google rallied as much as 6.35% on Buffett’s 17.9m share purchase and kept Fangs from larger losses. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and commodities, including precious metals, got hammered. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Has the crypto bubble burst? Is the AI bubble bursting? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6688.60 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6754.50; 6638.90 War Department refocuses on AI, hypersonics and directed energy in major strategy overhaul The six areas — Applied Artificial Intelligence, Biomanufacturing, Contested Logistics Technologies, Quantum and Battlefield Information Dominance, Scaled Directed Energy and Scaled Hypersonics — will be advanced through rapid “sprints” designed to move emerging technologies from prototype to production…https://www.foxnews.com/politics/war-department-refocuses-ai-hypersonics-directed-energy-major-strategy-overhaul Today – In Monday’s report we stated: The Big Game on Friday was to save Fangs by forcing the NY Fang+ Index back above its 50-day moving average after it fell 356 points below it. Late selling closed the NY Fang+ Index 1.02 points below its 50-day moving average (16345.68). Investors and traders will be desperate to keep their ginormous Fang holdings afloat. The game will be to force the NY Fang+ Index far enough above its 50-day moving average to dissuade momentum selling. On Monday, the NY Fang+ Index closed (16232.45) below its 50-DMA (16351.76); and the S&P 500 Index closed (6672.41) below its 50-DMA (6707.71) for the 1st time since 4/23/25 and 4/30/25 respectively. The game today will be pushing these indices back above their 50-DMA. NY Fang+ Index with 21-day moving average and 50-day moving average S&P 500 Index with 21-day moving average and 50-day moving average Despite the severe technical damage done to major equity indices over the past few sessions, the usual suspects will try to play for and affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. If stocks are down sharply in the morning, the odds of an afternoon rebound will heighten and be enhanced by traders that want to be long for Nvidia’s results due tomorrow. Nvidia’s expected results: Adj EPS+ 1.26, EPS GAAP 1.2, Rec $55.13B ESAs are +6.50; NQZs are +25.50; Dec AU is -34.50; and USZs are -1/32 at 20:15 ET. Fed Speakers: Gov Barr 10:30 ET, Richmond Pres Barkin 11 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6707; 100-day MA: 6532; 150-day MA: 6286; 200-day MA: 6152 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,633; 100-day MA: 45,657; 150-day MA: 44,332; 200-day MA: 43,867 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6672.41 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5687.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6839.28 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6714.48 triggers a buy signal NY Post Today’s cover: FBI Director Kash Patel dismisses Tucker Carlson’s claims about would-be Trump assassin Thomas Crooks – like alleged Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson, Crooks appears to have been interested in “furries” and exploring gender identity… He had an obsession with scantily clad cartoon characters sporting muscle-bound male bodies and female head… https://trib.al/n2bTuvx Despite Trumps excoriating and threatening of GOP Reps that said they would vote to release the Epstein Files, a critical mass indicate they will vote to release the Epstein Files. So on Sunday night, Trump said GOP Reps should vote to release the Epstein Files. He’s not fooling anyone. (DJT statement at link) https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-throws-supports-behind-congressional-effort-release-epstein @DrewHLive: It’s clear President Trump finally realized he couldn’t beat this vote nor the demand from the public and his base to release what he said he would. For the majority of your base this was never about you till you started gaslighting. @WallStreetApes: American on SNAP says she gets so much money she’s had money left over the last couple months in a row. She laughs on camera telling taxpayers they can’t tell her what to spend her EBT on. She goes to Walmart and orders a custom Sonic cake with leftover money just because she can https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1990236936825721056 SNAP recipients have done more to expose the program’s waste on entitled lazy people in a month than Republicans have in a decade. If there was ever a time to act on cutting its spending, it’s now. ‘Crossed the line’: Chinese state media blast Japan PM as Taiwan spat rumbles on Takaichi sparked the furore with remarks in parliament last week that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could amount to a “survival-threatening situation” and trigger a potential military response from Tokyo… https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-state-media-blast-japan-pm-taiwan-spat-rumbles-2025-11-12/ War fears skyrocket after China warns Japan: ‘Play with fire and you’ll perish’ China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said: “Japan must fully repent for its war crimes, immediately stop its wrong and provocative statements and actions that interfere in China’s internal affairs and stop playing with fire on the Taiwan question. “Those who play with fire will perish with it.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/war-fears-skyrocket-after-china-warns-japan-play-with-fire-and-you-ll-perish/ar-AA1Qqazw | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Nihilistic Accelerationism: Kirk Assassin & Butler, PA Shooter Share Disturbing Online Far-Left Radicalization, Furry Fetish
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 05:20 PM
Building on Tucker Carlson’s reporting about President Donald Trump’s would-be assassin, Thomas Crooks, and what increasingly appears to be a major FBI cover-up of Crooks’ political leanings and far-left radicalization, a new New York Post investigation reveals even more disturbing details, including a strange “furry” obsession strikingly similar to that of Charlie Kirk’s suspected shooter.
Sixteen months after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, Carlson dropped bombshells of Crook’s online history, including dozens of social media posts that show the young man was radicalized in just a few short years to a radical leftist who apparently had a weird obsession with furry culture.
Here’s more color on NYPost’s reporting of Crooks’ furry fetish:
When told of Crooks’ online threats, he said there was no way the FBI would not be aware of the teenager.
Among the 17 accounts uncovered by our source, only one, on PayPal, was operated under an alias: “Rod Swanson.”
Rod Swanson is a former senior FBI agent who was the chief of investigations for the state of Nevada during the 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting.
. . .
“No matter how ridiculous the allegation, no matter if it’s COVID or not, somebody is going to knock on somebody’s door,” Swanson said. “If they investigated that kid there’s a record of it and there’s an assessment that some leader made that this was not a threat or it rose to a level and they did something else.”
He also said that “if the FBI had that information [about his name on the PayPal account], I can’t even imagine they would not have reached out to me right away.”
. . .
He described himself with the pronouns “they/them” on the platform DeviantArt, which is one of the biggest online hubs for “furry” art and the “furry” community. (A furry is someone who has an interest in anthropomorphized animal characters, often as a sexual fetish.)
. . .
Two accounts linked to Crooks’ primary email were found on DeviantArt, under usernames “epicmicrowave” and “theepicmicrowave.” The account suggests he had an obsession with scantily clad cartoon characters sporting muscle-bound male bodies and female heads.
What’s especially troubling is that Crooks’ radicalization, along with his embrace of furry culture and gender-identity experimentation, reflects the same pattern of behavior seen in Charlie Kirk’s accused shooter, Tyler Robinson.
On Friday, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) made a bold claim during an interview with Benny Johnson, saying, “Crooks was groomed by the CIA through MKUltra-style mind-control programs and dark intelligence operations for the sole purpose of taking out President Trump in Butler, PA.“
END
Not very good optics: Larry Summers goes into hiding after it was revealed he sought Epstein’s advice on cheating on Summer’s wife with the daughter of a high CCP official
(zerohedge)
Larry Summers Goes Into Hiding; Messages Sought Epstein’s Advice On Cheating With Daughter Of CCP Official
Monday, Nov 17, 2025 – 09:20 PM
In the latest blow to Democrats from the recent ‘Epstein files’ released by House Republicans, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers announced that he’s stepping back from public commitments after new documents reveal he was asking for Jeffrey Epstein’s advice on how to bang a female mentee behind his wife’s back.
Summers – who was Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary and later president of Harvard University, repeatedly messaged Epstein about a woman codenamed “peril” in 2018 and 2019.
In one January 2019 text exchange, Summers told Epstein that the woman was unlikely to leave him due to his position of power and the professional connections that might come with it – to which Epstein replied, “She is doomed to be with you.“
“Think for now I’m going nowhere with her except economics mentor,” Summers wrote in November 2018. “I think I’m right now in the seen very warmly in rear view mirror category.”
“She must be very confused or maybe wants to cut me off but wants professional connection a lot and so holds to it,” Summers then wrote to Epstein in March 2019 – explaining why he believed she continued to engage with him despite tensions, the Harvard Crimson reports.
In at least some of his exchanges with Epstein on the relationship, Summers appears to refer to macroeconomist Keyu Jin ’04, a tenured professor at the London School of Economics at the time, who is mentioned in a series of late 2018 messages between the two men.
In one, Summers forwarded Epstein an email from Jin asking for feedback on a paper. Summers mused to Epstein that it was “probably appropriate” to hold off on responding.
“She’s already begining to sound needy 🙂 nice,” Epstein replied. -Crimson
Jin earned her bachelor’s degree and Ph.D. at Harvard between 2000 and 2009. Based on the messages, she makes no mention of a romantic relationship with Summers – and it’s unclear whether she knew her mentor and the sex offender were discussing her.
In later messages, Summers and Epstein appeared to joke about the possibility that Summers would have sex with her.
In another exchange, Summers and Epstein discussed Summers’ relationship with Jin’s father – a former high-ranked official in the Chinese Communist Party and founding president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which Summers had long been close with.
When Jin emailed Summers on Dec. 22 to thank him for his support of her and her father — minutes after she sent Summers an outline of an academic paper — Summers forwarded the exchange to Epstein, explaining that he had recently “sent a comment in mtg w her father flattering her father and saying other China officials had flattered him as well.”
Summers continued to detail his interactions with the woman — who appears to be Jin but is not named in the Epstein emails after December 2018 — throughout March 2019, now expressing frustration that she was canceling or shortening plans and appeared to be interested in another man. -Crimson
He’s Sorry (he got caught)
“I am deeply ashamed of my actions and recognize the pain they have caused,” Summers said on Monday evening, adding “I will be stepping back from public commitments as one part of my broader effort to rebuild trust and repair relationships with the people closest to me.”
Summers says he takes responsibility for his “misguided” decision to stay in touch with Epstein, and that he would continue teaching students while stepping back from the public domain.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) – a former DEI-hire Harvard Law Professor, urged the university to cut ties with Summers, saying that he “cannot be trusted to advise our nation’s politicians, policymakers and institutions — or teach a generation of students at Harvard or anywhere else.”
In response to the scandal, the Economic Club of New York postponed a discussion with Summers this week, hours after the Crimson published its article – telling FT that it was “postponed due to an unavoidable change in schedule. (lol)
END
House Passes Bill To Release Epstein Files; Comer Torches Hakeem Jeffries For Seeking Post-Prison Meeting
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 02:56 PM
The House has passed legislation to compel the Trump DOJ to release records related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, after the bill gained enough bipartisan support to require a House floor vote – and of course, after President Trump reversed course and decided to support it.
We also just learned, thanks to ‘Epstein Files’ releases by House Republicans, that Epstein was close with Larry Summers and Del. Stacey Plaskett.
Before debate concluded on the bill, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) read the names of some of Epstein’s victims on the House Floor; Haley Robson, Jena‑Lisa Jones, Michelle Licata, Ashley Rubright, Annie Farmer, Marina Lacerda and Rachel Benavidez. Oddly, the recently deceased Virginia Giuffre.
The bill now moves to the Senate after clearing the House 427-1, after which – assuming it passes, will go to President Trump’s desk to sign into law, and after which the files should then be released.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly said that the legislation should be amended to protect the identities of innocent individuals – which we assume will take lots of time, perhaps forever.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune, meanwhile, has signaled caution on the legislation, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has pledged to bring the bill to a vote immediately.
Also interesting is that Rep. James Comer torched Hakeem Jeffries for soliciting a meeting and donations from Epstein after he was a convicted sex offender.
Developing…
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
