SORRY FOR BEING LATE: WAS AT MY DENTIST FOR QUITE A WHILE
access market
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XGE: COMEX
323 C HSBC 171
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 492
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 701
709 C BARCLAYS 380
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 4
905 C ADM 4
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 701/876
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2025: 876 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 87,600 OZ or 2.725 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,440 contracts for 1,044,000 OR 32.472 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 333 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.680 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3802 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 18.010 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR NOV: 11.575 MILLION OZ
WEDNESDAY: 1.475 MILLION OZ
THEN ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 6.68 MILLION OZ
EQUALS
19.205 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER.
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 22.815 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
AND NOW NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.475 OZ WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 6.68 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.265 MILLION OZ/
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4.024 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 15.0533 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3996 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 36.0736 TONNES OF GOLD.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, NOV CONTRACT AT 36.0736 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 82.441 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1306 CONTRACTS OI TO 153,295 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 350 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1306 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1656 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.13 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.28 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.13
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.93 POINTS OR 0.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 99.38 PTS OR 0.38%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 165.28 PTS OR 0.34% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.24%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1125/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1139/ Oil UP TO 60.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1125 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1139:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY FAIR SIZED SIZED 2437 CONTRACTS TO 471,953 OI WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2522). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY.. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT TO THE SHORT SIDE AGAIN WITH OUR FRBNY AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE TAKING IN ALL THE CONTRACTS THAT THEY COULD. JUDGING BY THE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED LAST NIGHT AT 876 NOTICES FOR 87,600 OZ (2.725 TONNES), THEY TOOK EVERYTHING ON OFFER.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 86 CONTRACTS (OR 0.2646 TONNES).THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: SO FAR ONE ISSUANCE:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF 450 CONTRACTS FOR 45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES.
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 131.6996 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 10TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH NOV//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 10 MONTHS ISSUANCE 131.6996 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW NOVEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 86 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 2.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT/ NOVEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS FINALLY A LOWER T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1229 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE LAST 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THE WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER LAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MONDAY, DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL NOW SEE GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON OUR UPCOMING DAYS.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS: SEPT THROUGH NOVEMBER;
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE FINISHING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS GOADED OUR SPECULATORS TO CONTINUE ONTO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE…THE RAIDS THROUGHT THIS WEEK WERE FREQUENT BUT FAILED TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE TO THE PRICE WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHING OCT 31 AS WE NOW ENTER OUR MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH EARLY MONTH FAILED RAID ATTEMPTS. SO THEY NOW ISSUED THESE MEGA T.A.S. CONTRACTS AND THAT ALWAYS SIGNALS A MAJOR RAID WHICH ARRIVED ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND NOW TODAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 8 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. AND NOW NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4.024 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 15.0828 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 36.0736 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS.
THE FRBNY IS NOW NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING E.G. NOVEMBER: A HUGE INITIAL 15.651 TONNES STANDING IN AN OFF MONTH!! THIS IS HUGE!!!//WITH QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW STANDING FOR GOLD NOW AT 32.0496 TONNES
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/NOV//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2523 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2523 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2523 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2523 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//TUESDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION AND MASSIVE LIQUIDATION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON CLOSE TO CLOSING TIME
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE OCT 31 WITH OUR ATTEMPTED FAILED RAID, WE WILL SEE THESE MONTHLY MONTH SPREADERS IN ACTION NEXT WEEK DURING OPTIONS EXIRY WEEK.
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//NOV
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT// WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A MUCH SMALLER SIZED 1229 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR OTHERWISE LIKE THIS MONTH ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP TUESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD YET A CORRESPONDING VERY FAIR LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 1.36996 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 11 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
AND NOW NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.024 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 15.0829 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1.3966 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 36.0736 TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING NOVEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $6.30/ /) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS CENTRAL BANKS (FRBNY + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS) TOOK THE LONG SIDE AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,121 CONTRACTS.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY// COMEX TRADING//.. OTHER CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED!!. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK, THE BANKER (FRBNY) WENT TO THE SHORT SIDE AND SPECS AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE. THE SPECS WILL BE QUITE NICELY RINSED BY THE FRBNY BANKERS IN A TIMELY FASHION!!
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT AND NOVEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4.024 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 15.0826 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.3966 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 36.0736 ONNES OF GOLD.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.30
WE HAD A HUGE 14,687 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
NOV 19
NOV CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 255,568.299 oz (7549 kilobars) 7.549 tonnes of gold |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 876 notice(s) 87,600 OZ 2.725 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 708 contracts 70,800 OZ 2.202 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 10,440 notices 1,044,000 0z 32.472 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 255,568.299 oz
(7549 kilobars)
7.549 tonnes of gold
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs \2 both dealer to customer
a) Brinks 15,914.745 oz
b) Manfra: 6,403.437 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER:
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV STANDS AT 1584 CONTRACTS FOR A HUGE GAIN OF 376 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 918 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY. SO WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 1294 CONTRACTS FOR 129,400 OZ OF GOLD (4.024 TONNES).
DECEMBER LOST 11876 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 220,860 CONTRACTS . DECEMBER IS THE NEW FRONT MONTH AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DILLY MONTH STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR GOLD!!
JANUARY GAINED 96 CONTRACTS UP TO 1343
We had 876 contracts filed for today representing 91,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 918 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 190 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,440 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 1584 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (876 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,114,800 OZ OR 34.674 Tonnes of gold to which we add our first issuance of exchange for risk for 1.3996 tonnes//new standing advances to 36.0736 tonnes.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,440x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (1684 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (876)x 100 oz) which equals 1,114,800 OZ OR 34.674 TONNES to which we add our 1.3996 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total of gold standing in November is 36.0736 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV..: 36.0736 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER
volume TUESDAY confirmed 245,142 contracts GOOD
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,970,845.069 oz 61.30 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,969,175.891 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,454,033.425 or 605.10 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,515,142.466 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,505,506 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
544.49 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
SILVER/COMEX
THE NOV. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
NOV 19 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of ASAHI 1,8932,870.600 OZ ii) Out of CNT 45,057.669 oz iii) Out of hsbc 300,807.35 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan 825,477.300 oz total withdrawal: 3,104,314.910 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 1 entries I) Into Delaware 9987.208 oz total deposit 9987.208 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 333 CONTRACT(S) ( 1,680,000 OZ 1.680 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 51 contracts (0.255MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3802 Contracts (18.010 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
I) Into Delaware 9987.208 oz
total deposit 9987.208 oz
`
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of ASAHI 1,8932,870.600 OZ
ii) Out of CNT 45,057.669 oz
iii) Out of hsbc 300,807.35 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan 825,477.300 oz
total withdrawal: 3,104,314.910 oz
adjustments: 2 dealer to customer
a) JPmorgan: 2,311612.625 oz
b) Manfra: 1,245,023.393 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 152.547 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 462.520 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOVEMBER /2025 OI: 384 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 251 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 44 NOTICES SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 295 CONTRACTS FOR A 1.475 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP.
DECEMBER LOST 2902 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,430. THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER DELIVERIES AND WE WILL HAVE A STRONG STANDING FOR OUR SILVER METAL.
JANUARY GAINED 35 CONTRACTS UP TO 2281 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 333 or 1.680 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 95,322 huge//
AND NOW NOVEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3802 X5,000 oz = 18.010MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (384) AND the number of notices served upon today (333 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOVEMBER 2025 contract month: (3802) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(384) minus number of notices served upon today (333)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the NOV.contract month equating to 19.265 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 19.265million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 152.547 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 199.675/462.530million. 43.29%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.43 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 489.283 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
THIS IS IMPORTANT;
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MCLEOD….
3.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer//GATA DISPATCHES
Italian lawmakers seek to revive state claim on central bank’s $300 billion gold reserves
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-11-19 08:54 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Giuseppe Fonte and Giselda Vagnoni
Reuters
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
ROME — Italian lawmakers have revived attempts to establish that the central bank’s $300 billion in gold reserves belong to the state, presenting a proposal to parliament.
All five lawmakers who signed the proposal, which was tabled as an amendment to next year’s budget, are senators from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party.
The Bank of Italy sits on the world’s third-largest national gold stockpile, behind only the United States and Germany. Its 2,452 metric tons of gold are equivalent to around 13% of national output.
Unlike Britain or Spain, Italy has refused to sell off gold during financial downturns, retaining its reserves even through the 2008 debt crisis. Central banks generally accumulate gold to hedge against adverse scenarios and preserve confidence in the financial system.
Around 1,100 tons of the Bank of Italy’s gold are stored in a vault beneath its headquarters at Palazzo Koch in Rome. A similar portion is held in the United States, while smaller amounts are kept in Britain and Switzerland.
Politicians of all parties have called in the past 20 years to clarify ownership of the gold and then sell it to cut Italy’s public debt, which totals more than 3 trillion euros ($3.48 trillion) and is predicted by the Italian Treasury to peak at 137.4% of GDP next year. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Craig Hemke: What’s next for silver prices?
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-11-18 20:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
After making new all-time intraday highs last week, there are all sorts of prognostications regarding what’s next for the silver price. Let’s discuss the most likely scenario.
First and foremost, we need to establish that this time is different. The situation economically, monetarily, and physically is entirely different from 1980 and 2011. If you don’t understand what I mean, please check out this post from two weeks ago:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/silver-prices-test-your-senses-spot-price-analysis
In that post, you were reminded that in late 1979 and early 1980, the silver price moved from $10 to $48 in four months and then fell back to $10 in two months. In 2010 and 2011, the price moved from $18 to $48 in eight months and then fell back to $26 a few months later.
Is the current attempt to break through $48/ounce any different?
On the chart below, note that price first reached $48 on October 3 and here we are, more than six weeks later, and price is still trading above $50/ounce. That’s a big difference from 1980 and 2011. …
…Dispatch continues below …
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/whats-next-silver-prices-2025-breakout-analysis
end
Elliot going for gold; He is building his stake in Barrick/.wrong company. Should be Agnico eagle
(London Financial Times)
Elliott builds stake in Barrick amid speculation company might be broken up
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2025-11-18 10:03 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Leslie Hook, Oliver Barnes, and Arash Massoudi
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a large stake in Barrick Mining, according to people familiar with the matter, after the world’s second-largest gold producer struggled to capitalise on a blistering bullion rally.
Elliott’s investment comes as the Toronto-based miner has pledged to refocus on its lucrative North American business after the sudden departure of its chief executive Mark Bristow in September, adding to speculation that the company could be planning a break-up or asset sales.
Elliott’s stake puts it among Barrick’s 10 largest investors, the people said. That would mean the hedge fund’s holding is worth at least $700 million (C$1 billion).
As bullion has soared to record highs in recent months, boosting gold miners’ valuations, Barrick’s share price performance has lagged rivals and the company has faced a series of setbacks, including losing control of a key mine in Mali.
However, the people said Elliott was encouraged by the idea that Barrick could split into two companies, separating its higher-growth North American operations from its mines in riskier regions across Asia and Africa. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Interesting!
Indonesia plans taxes of up to 15% on gold exports next year
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-11-17 08:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Gayatri Suroyo
Reuters
Monday, November 17, 2025
JAKARTA — Indonesia will charge taxes on exports of gold of between 7.5% and 15% in a plan that will be implemented some time next year, a senior finance ministry official said today.
The tax policy, currently being finalised, is being designed so that lower rates are applied to processed goods to help encourage domestic processing, Febrio Kacaribu, the ministry’s director general of fiscal strategy, told a parliamentary hearing.
For example, a higher rate for gold dore — bars or ingots with impurities — and a lower rate for minted bars would be charged, he said.
Global gold prices will also be a factor in determining the taxes, he said, noting that higher rates are likely to be applied when prices are at or above $3,200 per troy ounce to capture miners’ windfall profits. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Chris Powell
important to listen to him!!
GATA secretary discusses many gold topics in interview with Soar Financially
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2025-11-16 19:01 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:05p ET Sunday, November 16, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed at the New Orleans Investment Conference by Soar Financially’s Kai Hoffman, discussing the continuing intervention against gold by central banks in the London and New York markets, the steady transfer of physical gold from West to East, and the realization by many governments and central banks that gold remains the ultimate money and that the United States no longer can be trusted as the custodian of foreign assets.
lso discussed were deception in official gold data maintained by the International Monetary Fund, the sudden disappearance of President Trump’s desire to audit the U.S. gold reserve at Fort Knox, China’s realization that gold is its most powerful weapon against U.S. influence around the world, and the possibility of an official revaluation of gold.
Gold, your secretary/treasurer says, is both the playground and battlefield of central banks and gold reserves are held primarily for currency market intervention.
The discussion is 22 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /249
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.93 POINTS OR 0.18%
//Hang Seng CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 99.38 PTS OR 0.38%
// Nikkei CLOSED : DOWN 165.28 PTS OR 0.34% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.24%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1125/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1139/ Oil UP TO 60.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 64.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1125 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1139:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1105
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1139
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 99.38 PTS OR 0.38%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 165.28 PTS OR 0.34%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.65 – EURO FALLSS TO 1.1568 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.772//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.98…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA/NEW PRIME MINSTER TAKAICHI. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3444 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7962/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.450 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.206
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.348
3j Gold at $4112.60 Silver at: 52.28 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 9/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.76
3m oil (WTI) into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.98 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.772% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.344 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8021 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9279 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.126 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.743 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.579 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.36 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5520 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.3850 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.257 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.819 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rebound After 4 Day Slide With Nvidia Earnings On Deck
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 08:43 AM
After 4 days of steep declines, futures are finally higher ahead of Nvidia earnings, with AI bulls hoping for strong numbers to provide respite from the market selloff. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher and Nasdaq futs gains 0.4%, both bracing for big moves later: NVDA alone has accounted for almost 20% of S&P 500 gains this year. FOMC minutes and a batch of retailer earnings are also due. Pre-mkt, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: NVDA (+1.4%) leads gains while AAPL (-0.1bp) is dragging the other end; semis are higher, too as the AI theme is seeing a pre-mkt bid. Cyclicals are flat versus Defensives with Fins/Materials and HC leading their respective factors higher. The dollar edges higher, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard; USDJPY spiked above 156 as the yen is flooded with devaluation fears again. Treasury 10-year yield dips 2bps to 4.11% even as the yield curve bear steepens. In other assets, Bitcoin’s slide is continuing. According to JPM, the market setup appears to be poised for an ‘Everything Rally’ as the market receives new macro data (Fed Mins and Mtge Apps) and old data (Trade) before the NVDA print. Today’s US economic calendar includes the August trade balance (8:30am); the Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stock are mostly higher (Alphabet +1.6%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.05%, Microsoft -0.09%, Apple -0.1%).
- Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) tumbles 37% after the company’s Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle-cell disease met one primary endpoint but missed another.
- Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) is up 2% as its plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid.
- DoorDash (DASH) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, with the analyst noting that the food delivery company’s annual forecast helped lower expectations, providing flexibility for both long-term investments and upside to estimates.
- Dycom Industries (DY) gains 6% after saying it will acquire Power Solutions, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers.
- La-Z-Boy (LZB) shares are up 11% after the home furniture retailer reported both sales and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
- Lowe’s (LOW) rises 6% as adjusted EPS and gross margin for the third quarter topped expectations, and comparative sales, while short of the consensus estimate, were better than feared after Home Depot’s report on Tuesday.
- Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) sinks 19% on the green hydrogen company’s plans for a private offering of $375 million in convertible senior notes due 2033.
- SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) soars 69% after the WSJ reported that Adobe is nearing a $1.9 billion deal to acquire the company.
- Unity Software (U) gains 8% after the company announced it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.
In corporate news, South Korean antitrust regulators were said to have visited the Seoul offices of Arm Holdings this week as part of an inquiry into its licensing practices, following a complaint by Qualcomm. The US government is providing $1 billion in backing to Constellation Energy’s plan to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.
The S&P 500 has lost more than 3% this month as the tech giants that powered much of 2025’s gains came under pressure. Nvidia’s results, due after the close, are seen as a bellwether for whether lofty valuations and massive capital spending in artificial intelligence remain justified.
For Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, the recent retreat “could easily morph into a 10% to 15% correction” for the S&P 500. “I’m not sure that even very good results from Nvidia would be enough to prevent that,” he said.
Comments at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore are largely cautious, with Goldman Sachs President John Waldron saying the market could pull back further, Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond talking about a “healthy correction” and Algebris Investments’ CEO Davide Serra warning of a “significant correction” for big AI stocks.
Others are staying positive. Fidelity International fund manager Joseph Zhang sees AI spending and usage as “still in the early stage of the party.” As for Nvidia numbers, analysts are estimating more than 50% growth for both net income and sales for the quarter (more in our full preview to follow). And despite all the talk of stretched tech valuations, the stock is now trading at about 29x forward earnings, far below the 10-year average of 35x.
The big question is how the market will interpret the numbers. JPMorgan strategists see room for Nvidia to zoom higher on a beat-and-raise and recommend buying call spreads. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, note the stock has posted negative one-week returns following four of the last five earnings releases. The options markets implies a 7% swing in either direction post-earnings.
Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Meta — which account for more than 40% of Nvidia’s sales — are projected to boost combined AI spending 34% to $440 billion over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The risk is that such projections could falter if major AI players, including OpenAI, scale back their commitments. Options suggest an earnings-related move of about 7%, signaling the big potential impact on the market if the results deviate.
The recent slide has made the stock more attractive, said Louis Puga, a fund manager at Societe de Gestion Prevoir and holder of Nvidia shares. “Paying 26 times for Nvidia’s next-year profits, sorry but I don’t see a bubble there,” Puga said. “We are like at the start of a gold rush: Nvidia is supplying the shovels and it doesn’t matter who finds the gold.”
Elsewhere, Elon Musk returned to the White House on Tuesday evening in a sign that tensions between Trump and the world’s richest man have thawed. Trump also gave Saudi Arabia’s crown prince a lavish reception in Washington. Trump said he thinks he’s identified his choice to be the next chair of the Fed, while asserting people are holding him back from firing Powell.
Investors will also be watching the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month. The unwinding of expectations for a December interest-rate cut has added to the market malaise, with traders now seeing less than a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction.
“We expect the minutes to show a deeply divided Fed with concerns over a weaker employment picture, but sticky inflation,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies.
European equities edged higher on Wednesday with media and mining stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are utilities and real estate shares. Stoxx 600 gain 0.1% to 562.58 with 222 members down, 370 up, and 8 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Rotork shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since early August, after the valve manufacturer announced a new £50m share buyback and delivered a “very healthy performance” in the four months to the end of October, according to Jefferies
- NKT shares jump as much as 12%, the most since April and to a fresh record high, after the Danish cable manufacturer reported its latest earnings and presented new 2030 targets
- WH Smith shares rise as much as 4.7%, reversing an initial slide, as analysts find some positives amid the publication of an independent review by Deloitte that led to the resignation of CEO Carl Cowling
- SMA Solar surges as much as 13%, hitting the highest since June 2024, as Jefferies upgrades the renewable energy equipment firm to buy, saying it has “weathered the worst”
- European defense companies slipped in Wednesday lunchtime trading as Politico reported that the White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will bring war with Ukraine to an end
- Enel shares drop as much as 2.4% while Endesa falls as much as 3.1% after the pair were cut to underperform from sector perform at RBC, with expectations “looking too optimistic” and valuations too high
- Kering shares drop as much as 4%, most in nearly two weeks, after Chief Executive Officer Luca de Meo said the company must reduce its reliance on its flagship Gucci brand
- Vivendi slumped on Wednesday after Le Monde reported that billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s eponymous holding company could escape having to pay anything to compensate minority shareholders over the recent split of the group
- Interparfums shares fall as much as 11% to the lowest level since October 2020, after the French maker of personal care products didn’t provide a sales forecast for next year on the back of the current economic and geopolitical backdrop
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for a four-day losing streak as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and lingering doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with Samsung, Xiaomi and TSMC among the biggest drags. Losses in South Korea and Australia offset gains in China. Hang Seng Tech Index falls about 1% and Kospi drifts lower. Japanese and mainland China indexes are broadly steady.
In FX, the dollar edges marginally firmer, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard.
In rates, treasury 10-year yield hovers little changed around 4.11% ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction and FOMC meeting minutes release; German gilts are about 2bps richer on the day; gilt curve pivots steeper around little-changed 10-year sector. Australian yields ease 1-2 bps across the curve. JGB futures pare losses after 20-year auction draws demand in line with 12-month average. UK front-end outperforms as more easing by Bank of England is priced in after October UK services inflation slowed more than forecast; UK 2-year yields down around 2.5bp. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bond sale at 1pm, with $19 billion 10-year TIPS ahead Thursday. WI 20-year yield near 4.705% is ~20bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 1.2bp
In commodities, Brent crude futures are near $64.70; gold rises to near $4,090 an ounce. Bitcoin slides below $91k as investors pulled more than half a billion dollars from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, the largest single-day outflow since the fund’s debut. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% from a record high set in October, entering oversold territory on a technical RSI measure.
The US economic calendar includes August trade balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 -0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
- VIX -0.8 points at 23.9
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1221.39
- euro -0.1% at $1.1569
- WTI crude -0.6% at $60.39/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump said he would formally designate Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally after meeting with Mohammed bin Salman. The countries signed several agreements and made progress on a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal. BBG
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials. Axios
- Trump posted “Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine…We MUST have one Federal Standard instead”: Truth Social.
- Scott Bessent said Trump will interview top three candidates for Fed chair after Thanksgiving and he may announce his pick before Christmas. BBG
- Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dipped slightly in September from record highs, though biggest holder Japan increased its portfolio. BBG
- Tesla CEO Musk and NVIDIA CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th: Reuters.
- Elon Musk’s xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
- China has reportedly reimposed an import ban on Japanese seafood just weeks after lifting it, and warns Tokyo of ‘further action’ if Takaichi doesn’t budge on Taiwan stand. SCMP
- Japanese government bond yields have hit multiyear highs, driven by fears that the government could unveil a large economic stimulus package that will place even more stress on the country’s ailing fiscal position. WSJ
- Thoughts into NVDA (Goldman) – We have positioning 8 out of 10. Stock has been consolidating for the better part of ~4-months with the stock at the same levels it was before print in August as investors digest rapidly evolving AI news flow, with an uptick in caution around the theme in recent weeks … which points to somewhat cleaner positioning into these set of numbers. Investors likely looking for another beat/raise print vs consensus Revenues of ~$55bn in Oct and ~$62bn in January – for context, Nvidia has delivered more “normalized” beat sizes lately (e.g. beat topline by ~1-3% the last few qtrs). Some investor debate on the likely “incrementality” of this print given recent commentary from NVDA at GTC (e.g. ~$500bn) — on this point, the stock has only moved +/- ~1-3% (t+1) on 3 of 4 print.
- UK Oct CPI was inline on core at +3.4% (down from +3.5% in Sept) while services ran a bit behind the Street at +4.5% (down from +4.7% and vs. the Street +4.6%), cementing expectations for a BOE rate cut next month. WSJ
- Target trimmed its 2025 profit forecast (TGT -195bps premkt), signaling that its turnaround push is going to take more time as it deals with markdowns and soft demand. Shares fell premarket. Lowe’s reported profit that beat (LOW +558bps premkt), helped by consumer spending on home renovations. BBG
- JPMorgan’s 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.
Trade/Tariffs
- The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
- The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
- Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk
APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings. ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz. Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi’s fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again. KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
- China’s Foreign Ministry says Japan’s PM Takaichi’s “erroneous remarks” about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
- Japan’s government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
- Japanese PM Takaichi’s advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
- Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses – but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings. European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%). At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.
FX
- DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
- EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
- Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark – a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
- GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week’s budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
- Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.
Fixed Income
- Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning’s CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
- However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn’t deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
- Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
- USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
- Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan’26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
- Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
- Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
- EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
- US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
- US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
- US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
- Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
- Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
- Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.
Geopolitics: Asia
- The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
- China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
- China’s Foreign Ministry says Japan’s PM Takaichi’s “erroneous remarks” about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.
US event Calendar
- 7:00 am: Nov 14 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6%
- 8:30 am: Aug Trade Balance, est. -60.4b, prior -78.31b
- 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Bank Regulation
- 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
- 2:00 pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 2:00 pm: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The selloff has showed no sign of letting up in the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since August, whilst futures are down another -0.21% this morning. Several factors are driving the losses, but the biggest have been concerns about AI valuations, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) edging closer to technical correction territory, having now shed -7.59% since its October peak. Moreover, sentiment took another hit from weak data releases and earnings reports, which further dampened investors’ optimism. Indeed, there were mounting signs of financial stress across the board, with the VIX index of volatility closing at 24.69 (+2.31pts), whilst US IG spreads (+1bp) reached their widest level since June.
Those AI concerns were front and centre, which comes at a pivotal moment given Nvidia (-2.81%) are reporting their own earnings results after the US close tonight. For context, Nvidia’s shares are now down -12.4% from their peak on October 29, albeit still at a level that was seen as recently as October 16. So that’s the biggest fall in its share price since the Liberation Day turmoil earlier this year. Interestingly, it was announced yesterday that Nvidia would invest up to $10bn in Anthropic, with Microsoft investing up to $5bn, in a deal that will see Anthropic purchase $30bn of Azure compute capacity. But unlike several recent AI deals which led to an immediate rally, there wasn’t a reaction in the share price of either following the news, with Microsoft (-2.70%) also underperforming on the day. So it goes to show how sentiment has turned more negative in the last few weeks, with the circular AI deals being treated with increasing caution as the conversation around a potential bubble has gathered pace.
In the meantime, that negative mood was exacerbated by several other catalysts. First, the crypto losses didn’t help, and yesterday saw Bitcoin briefly move below $90,000 on an intraday basis for the first time since April. Admittedly, it managed to recover by the close +0.68% higher on the day, but Bitcoin is still down -26% since its October peak, and the fear is that if retail investors are suffering crypto losses, then that could force them to sell other assets (like equities) to meet margin calls, thus exacerbating the broader selling pressure.
Alongside that, weak data and earnings continued to hit risk appetite. For instance, the ADP’s latest weekly employment estimate showed private payrolls were down -2.5k per week over the four weeks ending November 1. So that cemented fears that the labour market was struggling to hold up, although we should get a better picture tomorrow from the September jobs report. Otherwise, we also heard from Home Depot (-6.02%), whose shares fell back after they cut their outlook for the full-year, which in turn added to broader fears about the consumer outlook. So collectively, the drip-feed of more negative headlines helped to push risk assets down throughout the day.
Against that backdrop, the selloff continued across several asset classes. So the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posted a 4th consecutive decline, meaning it closed -3.97% beneath its recent peak. In fact, that marks the biggest peak-to-trough decline for the index since May, back when it was still recovering from the Liberation Day turmoil. Meanwhile in Europe, there were also heavy losses, with the STOXX 600 (-1.72%) posting its biggest daily decline since August, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.74%), the CAC 40 (-1.86%) and the FTSE MIB (-2.12%). That said, given how much the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) were responsible for the US equity declines, it’s worth noting that small-caps had a relatively good day, with the Russell 2000 actually up by +0.31%. Likewise, the S&P 500 itself also saw a divergent performance, with almost half of its constituents rising despite the overall losses, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 down just -0.02%.
Given the growing magnitude of the selloff, investors moved to price in a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts again. For instance, the likelihood of a December rate cut moved back up to 45%, having been at 41% the day before. And in turn, that meant front-end Treasury yields rallied, with the 2yr yield (-3.7bps) falling to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) also saw a decent decline to 4.11%. Interestingly, President Trump said on the next Fed Chair that “I think I already know my choice”, although we’re uncertain as to who that is. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the favourite with a 46% chance, and he’s currently the Director of the National Economic Council. He’s followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who’s given a 19% chance.
Meanwhile in Europe, attention will be back on the UK this morning, as the CPI release for October is out shortly after we go to press. There’s also just a week left until the government’s Budget announcement, and our UK economist published a preview yesterday looking at what to expect (link here). He thinks that this will be a second historic tax-raising budget, with Chancellor Reeves delivering nearly £35bn in fiscal consolidation. There’s also a Budget survey aimed at market participants asking what you’re expecting, which you can fill in here. Ahead of that, gilt yields mostly moved higher yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.8bps to 4.55%. But they underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr bund yields (-0.6bps) coming down slightly.
Overnight in Asia, the equity declines have mostly continued, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.16%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.16%) and the KOSPI (-0.96%). Meanwhile in Japan, there’ve been fresh losses for JGBs, with long-end yields up to multi-year highs this morning. For instance, the 10yr JGB yield (+1.8bps) has rise to 1.75%, which is its highest level since 2008, and the 30yr yield (+2.9bps) is up to 3.32%, its highest since that maturity was first issued. The moves come as investors anticipate further issuance as new PM Sanae Takaichi is expected to unveil a stimulus plan. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards further declines, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.21%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both lower this morning.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s October meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Miran, Barkin and Williams. Data releases will include the UK CPI report for October.
b) European opening report
US equity futures are gaining ahead of Nvidia; Trump could announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas – Newsquawk US Opening News
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 06:27 AM
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Politico reported that US officials are close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict.
- The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
- European bourses are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst US equity futures gain ahead of NVIDIA.
- USD is modestly firmer into FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY rises above 156.00 after Finance Minister Katayama said there were no specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.
- Bonds initially bid by a subdued risk tone, but now hold a downward bias sentiment improves; Gilts briefly boosted by CPI, but then come under marked pressured.
- Crude complex is modestly lower with Zelensky’s delegation in Turkey, XAU returns above USD 4100/oz.
- Looking ahead, US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE’s Dhingra, supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
TRADE
- The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
- The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
- Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses – but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%). At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.
- US equity futures (ES +0.3% NQ +0.4% RTY +0.5% ) are modestly higher across the board, attempting to pare back some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session.
- NVIDIA’s earnings are due after the market close, as investors grow wary of soaring AI spending. Investors expect clarity on where billions allocated to AI are flowing, with analysts suggesting that the results could steer wider market sentiment. Analyst forecast Q3 earnings of USD 1.24 per share, and revenue of USD 54.41bln revenue, mostly from Data Centre operations. Orders for Blackwell and Rubin chips are expected to exceed USD 500bln, Susquehanna says. Despite optimism, Michael Burry recently announced he has 1mln puts, while SoftBank (SFTBY) has exited its stake.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for Market Analysis on the Tech sector
FX
- DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
- EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
- Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark – a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
- GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week’s budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
- Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0872 vs exp. 7.1121 (Prev. 7.0856)
- Click for a detailed summary
FIXED INCOME
- Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning’s CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
- However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn’t deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
- Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
- USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
- Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan’26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
- Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
- Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
- EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK CPI YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.8%); MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
- UK Core CPI YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%); CPI MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
- UK CPI Services YY (Oct) 4.50% vs. Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.70%); MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
- UK ONS House Price Index: +2.6% in the 12-months to September
- EU Current Account SA, EUR (Sep) 23.1B (Prev. 11.9B)
- EU HICP Final YY (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
- US President Trump posted “Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine…We MUST have one Federal Standard instead”, via Truth Social.
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk and NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th, according to Reuters.
- Elon Musk’s xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
- JPMorgan’s 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
- US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
- US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
- US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
- Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
- Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
- Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.
CHINA-JAPAN
- The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
- China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
- China’s Foreign Ministry says Japan’s PM Takaichi’s “erroneous remarks” about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and trades around USD 91k whilst Ethereum sits above USD 3.1k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz.
- Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi’s fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again.
- KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
- China’s Foreign Ministry says Japan’s PM Takaichi’s “erroneous remarks” about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
- Japan’s government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
- Japanese PM Takaichi’s advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
- Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
- Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Sep) 11.6% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Sep) 4.2% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. -0.9%)
c) Asian opening report
Tentative trade as markets await the FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings – Newsquawk European Opening News
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 01:36 AM
- APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Russia said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
- BoJ Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi are set to meet at 09:10 GMT (04:10 EST), according to JiJi; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is expected to speak to media at 09:30 GMT (04:30 EST).
- The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE’s Dhingra, supply from the UK & US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Target & Lowe’s.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were lower, albeit settling well off troughs, as mega-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary and Technology underperformed amid continued concerns regarding AI overvaluation. These worries were heightened on Tuesday, as Rothschild downgraded both Amazon and Microsoft, saying it’s time to take a more cautious stance on AI hyperscalers. Health and Energy sat at the top of the sectorial breakdown, with the latter buoyed by strength in the crude complex, albeit not on any specific headline driver.
- SPX -0.83% at 6,617, NDX -1.20% at 24,503, DJI -1.05% at 46,103, RUT +0.21% at 2,346.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he has begun interviews for Fed Chair and would love to remove Powell immediately, adding he thinks he already knows his choice; he said there are some surprising names under consideration but he may go the standard route, and noted that people are holding him back from firing Powell, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
US DELAYED DATA UPDATES
- The US Department of Labor said weekly jobless-claims data will be released on Thursday and that a technical issue caused an early posting of some of the claims data, according to Reuters.
- The BLS said the PPI for September will be released on November 25th, while the Import and Export Price Indices for September will be released on December 3rd, 2025, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
- Meta (META) won its FTC antitrust trial over the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, with the judge ruling the deals did not create an illegal monopoly, according to Bloomberg.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are committing to invest in Anthropic’s next fundraising round, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President Trump posted “Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine…We MUST have one Federal Standard instead”, via Truth Social.
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk and NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th, according to Reuters.
- Elon Musk’s xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump said China is on schedule in buying US farm products but wants China to speed up soybean purchases, adding that he wants Treasury Secretary Bessent to tell China to accelerate those purchases, according to Reuters.
- The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
- The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz.
- Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi’s fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again.
- KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.
- US equity futures initially traded flat but soon adopted a negative bias as sentiment soured in Japan and South Korea shortly after the open. Some positivity was seen around the China open, although futures later waned once again ahead of FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- European equity futures Indicative of an uneventful open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future U/C after cash closed -1.9% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY was choppy in a narrow 99.524–99.669 range, remaining within Tuesday’s parameters for most of the session before it eclipsed yesterday’s peak (99.661) before trimming modest gains. Market focus shifted towards the FOMC minutes, with attention also on NVIDIA earnings.
- EUR/USD saw little movement as the pair consolidated following yesterday’s losses, which saw it fall below the 1.16 mark. Traders are now looking ahead to the EZ Final CPI data, though this is unlikely to have a significant impact on EUR assets.
- GBP/USD continued to tread water ahead of the upcoming UK CPI, with current BoE pricing suggesting a 79% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the December 18th announcement.
- USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. The pair fluctuated around 155.50, staying within the 154.81–155.73 range seen yesterday. Some JPY weakness was seen on reports that the Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports.
- Antipodeans eventually traded lower as sentiment tilted lower. AUD saw little reaction to the Australian Wage Price Index, which printed in line with expectations and prior readings.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0872 vs exp. 7.1121 (Prev. 7.0856)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures held a mild upward bias following the previous day’s steepening, supported by the cautious risk profile across APAC.
- Bund futures were underpinned amid the cautious risk tone, with little material data on the EZ docket, as traders focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.
- 10yr JGB futures bucked the trend, with yields rising across the Japanese curve. The market remained under pressure, with downticks after Japan’s 20-year JGB auction, where weak demand raised concerns about the fiscal stimulus plan, although the 10yr JGB future edged higher after the initial reaction to the auction. Meanwhile, the 40-year JGB yield reached a record high of 3.685%.
- Japan sold JPY 600bln vs exp. JPY 800bln 20-year JGB; b/c 3.28x (prev. 3.56x), average yield 2.809% (prev. 2.674%)
- Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.75% 2035 AGB; b/c 3.65x (prev. 2.91x), average yield 4.414% (prev. 4.1047%).
- China prices 4-year EUR bond at mid swaps +5bps (vs IPT mid swaps +28bps); prices 7-year EUR bond at mid swaps +13bps (vs IPT mid swaps +38bps), according to the term sheet
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures consolidated after the prior day’s gains, which occurred despite no specific headlines. The upside coincided with the Trump/Saudi Crown Prince conference, likely due to traders’ belief that the recent US-Saudi engagement reduced pressure on the Kingdom to lower oil prices. Mild downticks were seen overnight following reports that the Trump administration has been working with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources.
- Spot gold was uneventful for most of the session after finding support at USD 4,000/oz on Tuesday, with traders focusing on the upcoming FOMC minutes ahead of NVIDIA earnings. Modest upticks were seen across precious metals overnight around the China open and despite a lack of newsflow.
- Copper futures were subdued and largely reflected the broader cautious and tentative risk profile across markets.
- US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
- EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded with modest losses overnight as it edged lower towards USD 91,000 to the downside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi are set to meet at 09:10 GMT (04:10 EST), according to JiJi; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is expected to speak to media at 09:30 GMT (04:30 EST).
- Japan’s government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
- Japanese PM Takaichi’s advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
- Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.
DATA RECAP
- New Zealand PPI – Outputs QQ (Q3) 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
- New Zealand PPI – Inputs QQ (Q3) 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
- Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Sep) 11.6% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM * (Sep) 4.2% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. -0.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he is working on approving advanced chips for Saudi Arabia, calling Saudi a great ally; he said F-35 jets sold to Saudi will be similar to those sold to Israel and that both Israel and Saudi should receive top-of-the-line F-35s. He said he had a good discussion on the Abraham Accords, that the US has reached a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, and that he can see a civil-nuclear deal happening with the kingdom.
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal very badly, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia will do its best on an Iran deal, according to Reuters.
- France, Britain, Germany, and the US submitted a draft resolution on Iran to the IAEA’s 35-nation board of governors, according to Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
- US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
- US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
- Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
- Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
- Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.
CHINA-JAPAN
- The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
- China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
- BoE’s Dhingra said interest rates should be brought to the neutral level soon and added that UK disposable income is just as weak as consumption.
- German Chancellor Merz said French and German companies took part in today’s digital sovereignty summit and agreed on additional investments of EUR 12bln, according to Reuters.
A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA//USA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN
TWO MAJOR STORIES TODAY:
FIRST: (ZEROHEDGE)
Japan Bond Yields Soar To Record, Slamming Door On Stimulus Just As Economy Implodes Amid Escalating China Clash
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 05:20 PM
Back in 2024, it was the story of the summer, but now with a relentless waterfall of news stressing traders – and that excludes the hourly blasts from Trump’s truth social account – it has become impossible to filter the firehose of newsflow, let alone trade it.
Which is why some may have missed the big store of the night which is that Japanese yields are once again breaking out in the back of the curve, with new cycle highs in the 20yr and 40yr weighing on sentiment and risk, and sending the Nikkei not only back below 50K, but below 49K, down 7% from the local record high hit on Halloween.
And with the recent surge in yields, driven by new PM Takaichi’s plans for a fresh stimulus boost (see “Japan ruling-party panel proposes $161 billion extra budget to fund stimulus“), now that the country is basically back in recession after the catastrophic Q3 GDP print which tied for the second worst since covid…
… any plans for fiscal stimulus now are hard to square with the limits of the bond market according to Goldman’s Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky.
But while bond vigilantes may not allow Japan to spend on a fiscal stimulus, it may have no choice but to splurge on defense, as the country’s diplomatic scandal with China is rapidly deteriorating, and is set to be a rerun of the Senkaku Island East China Sea crisis from 2013, which saw almost two years of unprecedented belligernce between the two countries.
In the latest escalation of the deepening dispute between Asia’s two largest economies over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, Japan warned its citizens in China to step up safety precautions and avoid crowded places. As we reported last week, Takaichi sparked the most serious diplomatic clash in years when she told Japanese lawmakers this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan’s survival could trigger a military response.
A senior Japanese official met his counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday to try and tamp down the tension, but no breakthrough appeared imminent.
China’s foreign ministry said Liu Jinsong, head of the ministry’s Asia affairs department, had pressed at the meeting for Takaichi to retract her remarks. But Japan’s top government spokesperson, Minoru Kihara, suggested Tokyo was in no mood to do so.
The comments did “not alter the government’s existing position,” Kihara told a press conference on Tuesday, adding that the government hoped issues concerning Taiwan would be resolved peacefully through dialogue.
A video posted on social media by China’s Communist party-run newspaper Guangming Daily showed Liu telling reporters that he was “of course dissatisfied” with the meeting, and described the atmosphere as “solemn.”
A Chinese diplomat in Japan responded to Takaichi’s remarks by posting a threatening comment aimed at her on social media. That drew a strong rebuke from Tokyo, though it failed to stem vitriolic commentary against her in Chinese state media. Takaichi was summoning Japan’s “militarist demons”, the official news agency Xinhua said in the latest such attack on Tuesday.
In view of the media coverage in China, Japan’s embassy there reminded citizens on Monday to respect local customs and take care in interactions with Chinese people.
It asked citizens to be aware of their surroundings when outdoors, telling them to not travel alone and urging extra caution when accompanying children. “If you see a person or group that looks even slightly suspicious, do not approach them and leave the area immediately,” the embassy said in its notice.
The dispute will deal a harsh blow to Japan’s already reeling economy, as Beijing has urged its citizens not to travel there. Chinese form the largest number of all tourists to Japan, accounting for nearly a quarter, official figures show. Tourism-related stocks in Japan plunged on the news.
More than 10 Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, have offered refunds on Japan-bound routes until December 31, while Sichuan Airlines has cancelled plans for a Chengdu-Sapporo route until at least March, state media said.
Film distributors have also suspended the screening of at least two Japanese films in China, a step state broadcaster CCTV hailed on Monday as a “prudent decision” reflecting souring domestic sentiment. Screening of some Japanese films originally set for release in coming weeks, such as the animated “Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! Scorching Kasukabe Dancers” and manga-turned-movie “Cells at Work!” will not begin in mainland China as scheduled, it added, citing industry checks.
Apart from tourism, Japan is heavily dependent on China for supply of critical minerals used in items from electronics to cars.
“If we rely too heavily on a country that resorts to economic coercion the moment something displeases it, that creates risks not only for supply chains but also for tourism,” Japan’s economic security minister, Kimi Onoda, told a press conference on Tuesday.
“We need to recognise that it’s dangerous to be economically dependent on somewhere that poses such risks,” she added, responding to a question about China’s calls for its citizens to avoid travel to Japan.
Japan’s Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said there had been no particular changes yet in China’s export control measures on rare earths and other materials. The heads of Japan’s three business federations met Takaichi late on Monday and urged dialogue to resolve the diplomatic tension.
“Political stability is a prerequisite for economic exchange,” Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of Japan’s biggest business lobby Keidanren, told reporters after the meeting, media said.
Meanwhile, sensing blood in the water, China is prepared to instigate a rerun of the Senkaku crisis from a decade ago. On Sunday, Chinese coast guard ships sailed through waters around a group of East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China. Japan’s coast guard said it drove the Chinese ships away.
The United States does not formally recognise the islands, known as Senkaku in Tokyo and the Diaoyu in Beijing, as Japanese sovereign territory. Since 2014 it has said it would be obliged by the Japan-U.S. security treaty to defend them if they were attacked, however.
“In case anyone was in doubt, the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, which includes the Senkaku Islands, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, George Glass, said on X. “And formations of Chinese coast guard ships won’t change that.”
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference on Tuesday that Glass’s remarks were a “political show with ulterior motives”.
This week’s G20 summit in South Africa offered a possible forum to help ease tension, but China said its premier had no plans to meet Takaichi.
Kihara said nothing has been decided about two-way meetings during G20, but Japan remains open to holding “various dialogues” with China. Japan’s refusal to retract its statements meant its de-escalatory efforts had failed to mollify Beijing, said Allen Carlson, an expert on China’s foreign policy at Cornell University.
“As a result, the two countries now stand on a knife’s edge.”
END
SECOND
AND THIS IS HUGE: THE REPATRIATION OF ALL USA TREASURIES BACK INTO JAPAN!!!!!
ROBERT LAMBOURNE
Is Japan about to start capital repatriation?
Chris and Harvey,
This Substack article is really worth reading, in my opinion. It’s probably correct in claiming that the Japanese are about to start a serious repatriation of capital from overseas and from the USA, in particular. The majority of the $3 trillion mentioned in the article is invested in the USA.
The US Treasuries market is going to be affected by this, as will other US financial markets. Repatriation would put more upward pressure on US interest rates.
One thing that hasn’t really happened as rapidly as I had expected since Trump’s election is a more general move for capital to be repatriated back to other Western countries from the USA. The UK government and investing institutions have been taking steps to start this process and so has France where Macron has spoken publicly on his wish for this to happen. At the lowest point UK pension funds in total only had 4% of their funds invested in UK quoted shares, emphasising that the repatriation was starting from an extreme position.
This raises the question whether the US will need to introduce capital controls. It certainly seems to be a possibility. However I got this wrong a year ago when discussing this with the British owner of a US business and perhaps the reputation of the US as a safe home for capital will outweigh the negatives.
Even the possibility of capital controls can be expected to boost precious metals prices in dollars, despite potentially higher US interest rates. If higher interest rates are resisted by the US monetary authorities then the dollar should weaken.
These conditions seem to present fertile ground for a gold price reset, but this is something else that hasn’t happened and is probably being resisted by US monetary authorities. So maybe a slower, but seemingly irresistible rise in gold lies ahead. But it feels as if “we haven’t seen anything yet”.
Regards,
Bob
| The Creditor’s Revolt: How Japan’s Bond Market Just Ended the Era of Free Money and Triggered the Greatest Capital Repatriation in Financial Historyopen.substack.com |
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
Beijing Jumps Back Into US Soybean Market, Snaps Up 20 Cargo Loads After Abrupt Pause
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 09:20 PM
After the Trump-Xi trade agreement cooled the tit-for-tat tariff war and opened the door for a more stable phase of negotiations, we’ve been tracking a series of agricultural twists and turns that can only be viewed as a rollercoaster ride:
- ‘Signatures As Soon As Next Week’: U.S.-China Deal Close, Bessent Unveils Major Victory For American Farmers
- China Boosts U.S. Soybean Purchases Following Trump-Xi Trade Talks
Then this.
Now we’ve come full circle after Bloomberg reported Tuesday that China has returned to the U.S. soybean market, purchasing nearly a million tons, or about 20 cargo ships worth, for December and January delivery.
Traders told BBG that state-owned giant Cofco made the purchases from both Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast ports. As we’ve previously reported, these purchases end the one-week pause in buying and signal Beijing’s continued commitment after last month’s trade truce.
That commitment: the Trump administration says Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end and 25 million tons annually for the following three years.
Trump told reporters on Friday aboard Air Force One that China has already begun the buying process and expects “a lot of soybean purchases,” potentially even before spring.
On Monday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Fox Business, “We’ve already got about 330,000 TONS out… we’re going to get that deal signed – then, we’re off to the races.”
Chicago soybean futures were up more than 3% on Monday before easing in the overnight session.
The renewed demand may lift bean prices much higher.
END
CHINA/HOLLAND/NEXPERIA
China wins out!!
Dutch Retreat: Beijing Wins Control Fight Over Nexperia After Chip Shipments Squeezed
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 07:45 AM
The Dutch government has fully withdrawn its emergency powers over chipmaker Nexperia, returning control to Chinese parent Wingtech and ending the tense standoff that had led Beijing to halt key automotive-chip shipments, Bloomberg reported. If tensions persisted, this would’ve sparked snarled automotive supply chains worldwide. The reversal marks a clear de-escalation and comes just weeks after the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea helped cool broader trade tensions.
The powers were initially invoked in September under a Cold War-era law, prompting Beijing to retaliate with export restrictions on chips from Nexperia’s Guangdong plant, sparking shipment delays that hit automakers including Honda and Volkswagen.
Some of the first evidence of cooling tensions between the Netherlands and China emerged last Friday when Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans stated that he expects chip supplies to Nexperia’s customers in Europe and elsewhere to be resolved “in the coming days.”
Earlier on X, Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans said the Netherlands is suspending its emergency order over Nexperia after constructive talks with Chinese officials and coordination with European and international partners. He noted that China has already taken steps to ensure chip supplies to Europe and beyond.
Nexperia timeline (via BBG):
Our reporting:
- Nexperia-Linked Chip Shortages Ripple Through Global Auto Supply Chain, From Germany To Japan
- Chipmaker Nexperia’s China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split
- White House Unveils Details Of U.S.-China Deal, Including Resolution To Nexperia Auto Chip Crisis
- Nexperia Chip Crisis Defused? Dutch Minister “Trusts” China To Resume Chip Exports Next Week
Karremans’ statement suggests that the Dutch miscalculated their trade spat with Beijing. This underscored how little leverage Europe actually has – and how quickly China can squeeze the fragile continent’s already-failing automotive sector.
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
EU/HJUNGARY
Like “Helping An Alcoholic By Sending Another Crate Of Vodka”: Orbán Blasts Brussels Over EU Funding Ukraine
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Ukraine will need over $150 billion from its Western backers in 2026 and 2027. The President of the European Commission admitted there were no easy options.
In a letter to the leaders of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen argued it was essential for the bloc to plug Ukraine’s $157 billion budget gap over the next two years. “It will now be key to rapidly reach a clear commitment on how to ensure that the necessary funding for Ukraine will be agreed at the next European Council meeting in December,” she wrote.
“Clearly, there are no easy options.” Von der Leyen continued, “Europe cannot afford paralysis, either by hesitation or by the search for perfect or simple solutions which do not exist.”
The letter, sent by von der Leyen to 27 European leaders on Monday, was first reported by EuroNews on Tuesday.
Von der Leyen’s proposal to fill the budget gap calls for EU states to enter into bilateral agreements with Kiev to provide over $100 billion to Ukraine over the next two years. Additionally, she wants the bloc to take on debt to finance Kiev and to use seized Russian assets held in member states.
Most of the frozen Russian funds are held in Belgium. Brussels has resisted using the assets, believing Moscow will sue to recover the funds.
Hungarian President Viktor Orban rejected von der Leyen’s call for sending more support to Ukraine:
“I received a letter today from President von der Leyen. She writes that Ukraine’s financing gap is significant and asks member states to send more money,” he wrote on X. “It’s astonishing.”
“At a time when it has become clear that a war mafia is siphoning off European taxpayers’ money, instead of demanding real oversight or suspending payments, the Commission President suggests we send even more.”
The Hungarian leader added, “This whole matter is a bit like trying to help an alcoholic by sending them another crate of vodka. Hungary has not lost its common sense.”
END
EU
EU Launches Cloud Antitrust Probes Into Amazon, Microsoft
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 04:15 AM
What would Europe be without a mountain of regulations aimed at curbing free speech and privacy?
The European Commission (EC) on Monday launched three separate investigations into Amazon and Microsoft to determine whether their cloud computing businesses should be subject to stricter regulation under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).
Two of the probes will examine whether Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure should be designated as gatekeepers under DMA – even though the companies do not currently meet the law’s quantitative thresholds for size, user numbers, or market dominance.
To meet that bar under DMA, companies providing a core platform service must have over 45 million monthly active users and a market cap of more than 75 billion euros (US$87.87 billion). Compaines which breach the rules may face fines of up to 10% of global revenue.
And of course, in Europe – even if a company doesn’t meet the threshold to be classified as a gatekeeper – EU regulators can just say you are.
While the DMA is not nakedly about regulating free speech, critics argue that several of its structural mandates could indirectly chill expression online. Requirements for interoperability, alternative ranking systems, and tighter control over “gatekeeper” platforms may unintentionally pressure large services to adopt more uniform, risk-averse moderation policies to avoid regulatory conflict – especially when combined with the EU’s broader Digital Services Act framework.
By forcing platforms to open their systems to third-party services and to redesign core ranking or recommendation functions, the DMA could incentivize over-enforcement, reduced visibility for controversial viewpoints, or a homogenized approach to content governance. In this view, the DMA expands regulatory leverage in ways that, while not explicitly targeting speech, could reshape the online information environment in ways that subtly disfavor dissenting or politically sensitive expression.
Meanwhile, a third probe will look into whether DMA’s existing framework is sufficient to address what the European Commission described as anticompetitive practices in Europe’s cloud sector.
As the Epoch Times notes further, the legislation has come under fire from the Trump administration, which said in February that the DMA unfairly targeted U.S. tech companies.
In announcing the probes, the EC said cloud computing “must be provided in a fair, open and competitive environment” to ensure innovation and Europe’s “strategic autonomy.”
EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said the investigations will examine “whether the DMA’s existing rules need to be updated so Europe can keep pace with fast-evolving practices in the cloud sector.”
She added that cloud computing is critical to AI development and digital competitiveness in Europe.
Monitoring the Gatekeepers
AWS stated that it believed the EC would ultimately conclude that stricter rules were unnecessary.
“We’re confident that when the European Commission considers the facts, it will recognise what we all see—the cloud computing sector is extremely dynamic, with companies enjoying lots of choice, unprecedented innovation opportunity, and low costs, and that designating cloud providers as gatekeepers isn’t worth the risks of stifling invention or raising costs for European companies,” an AWS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.
A Microsoft spokesperson, responding to the announcement, said the company was “ready to contribute to the enquiry.”
If the EC ultimately finds that AWS and Azure constitute an “important gateway” between businesses and customers, the services could be added to the list of core platform services for which both companies are already designated as gatekeepers.
Other services by Microsoft and Amazon already on the gatekeepers’ list are LinkedIn, Windows PC OS, Amazon Marketplace, and Amazon Advertising. The Microsoft Azure and AWS designations would trigger new duties, including interoperability requirements and limits on favoring their own products.
The EC said it aims to conclude its investigations within 12 months. If Amazon or Microsoft is designated as a gatekeeper for cloud computing, it will have six months to comply with DMA rules.
The third and broader investigation into whether the DMA adequately governs the cloud market is expected to conclude within 18 months and may result in formal updates to the law.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
GERMANY BERLIN
Leftist Berlin Mayoral Candidate Calls For Voting-Rights For All Migrants
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
The Left Party’s (Die Linke) newly-chosen lead candidate for next year’s state election has called to extend voting rights to all migrants living in the capital, including those who do not hold German citizenship.
Elif Eralp’s remarks were delivered during a party strategy meeting on Saturday, where 163 delegates met ahead of the September 2026 Berlin House of Representatives election.
The 44-year-old told delegates, “Let’s make history,” after being elected as the party’s top candidate. Every Berliner aged 16 and older is eligible to vote in the 2026 election under the current legal framework, but German constitutional law restricts voting in federal and state elections to citizens. Her proposal would therefore require fundamental legal change.
The Left Party had already promoted Eralp as its preferred figurehead in October, describing her as “courageous, determined, and an advocate for all those who keep things running here.” One of her main policies has been expanding rights for migrants. She said that people with a migration background constitute almost half of Berlin’s population and are “not just part of the cityscape.” Referring to both economic migrants and asylum seekers, she said these groups “contribute to shaping this city and this country every day.”
Eralp argued that this contribution should entitle non-citizens to a right to vote. She stated:
“Of course, they should also have the right to vote, regardless of whether they hold a German passport,” calling this a “democratic given.”
She also criticised the CDU, accusing the party of pandering to the AfD and creating divisions in the capital.
An Insa poll published at the end of October placed the Left Party at 17 percent in Berlin, behind the CDU, and ahead of the SPD and the Greens, which currently occupy third and fifth place respectively. On those numbers, the Left Party could form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens after the 2026 election. As the largest party of the three, Eralp could feasibly become the next Berlin mayor.
Eralp has served as deputy chair of the Berlin Left Party since May 2025. She has been a member of the Berlin House of Representatives since 2021, where she acts as deputy parliamentary group chair and spokesperson for migration and anti-discrimination.
She also linked her campaign to developments abroad, referring to the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York.
“Millions of people cast their votes for a good life for all and for a city that everyone can afford,” she said.
“If a leftist can win in New York, then they can just as easily win in Berlin.”
She said Mamdani represents a policy that rejects the idea that a city should work only for wealthy residents, adding:
“Whether in New York or Berlin, in Marzahn or Manhattan – we all want a good life.”
Berliners are scheduled to vote on Sept. 20, 2026.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Hamas must be destroyed..They are evil people
(JerusalemPost)
IDF strikes Gaza City building in targeted attack on Hamas terrorist
The terrorists were killed after being identified, according to the IDF.
Israeli soldiers enter the Gaza Strip in a military vehicle from at the Israel-Gaza border, November 5, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/NIR ELIAS)BySHIR PERETSNOVEMBER 19, 2025 17:09Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2025 18:08
The IDF struck a building in the Zeitoun neighborhood in Gaza City in a targeted attack on a Hamas terrorist on Wednesday, a security source told Army Radio.
The attack reportedly killed three.
The echoes of the attack were heard in the western Negev.
The IDF had killed several terrorists earlier who were identified crossing into IDF-controlled northern Gaza, who, according to the military, posed a threat to troops.
The terrorists were immediately killed after identification, according to the IDF.
In recent weeks, the IDF has reported multiple cases of terrorists approaching positions beyond the Yellow Line and being targeted.
The army has repeatedly emphasized that the ceasefire does not prevent action against imminent threats to soldiers or Israeli civilians.
Two terrorists killed after entering IDF-controlled area on Monday
The IDF killed several terrorists while crossing this boundary in two separate events on Monday, the military said in a statement.
One of the terrorists was seen “planting suspicious objects in the ground adjacent to troops,” and was subsequently struck. “The remaining terrorists fled from the scene to the area west of the Yellow Line,” the statement read.
Another terrorist attempted to approach IDF troops stationed near the Yellow Line and was killed as he “posed an immediate threat,” the military added.
Tobias Holcman contributed to this report.
SAUDI ARABIA/USA/ISRAEL ET AL
Saudi Arabia want to be part of the Abraham accords
(JerusalemPost)
Saudi Arabia wants to be part of Abraham Accords, MBS tells Donald Trump in White House summit
The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) arrived at the White House, with US military jets flying over as part of the reception.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/72xAuoqax-Y?si=4HSUsrKZs41cGikUS President Donald Trump meets with Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Silman, November 18, 2025.ByREUTERSNOVEMBER 18, 2025 18:46Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2025 17:47
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) said he wants his country to be part of the Abraham Accords, but also make sure to secure a path to a two-state solution,” during his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
Trump addressed Saudi-Israeli normalization, saying he spoke with the crown prince about the Abraham Accords and that he received a positive response.
The US president also said that the US would sell F-35 stealth fighter jets to Saudi Arabia in a similar arrangement it has with Israel. “As far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line (F-35s),” Trump declared, referring to Saudi Arabia and Israel as great allies.
Trump also disclosed a possible civil nuclear deal with the Saudis, saying he can see one happening with the kingdom.
He also announced that MBS had agreed to invest $600 billion in the United States, with the Saudi Crown Prince promising to increase that to $1 trillion.
“I want to thank you because you’ve agreed to invest $600 billion into the United States, and because he’s my friend, he might make it a trillion, but I’m gonna have to work on him,” Trump said, referring to MBS. The crown prince, in response, said the kingdom would increase US investment to $1 trillion.
MBS’ first visit to White House in seven years
Making his first White House visit in more than seven years, the crown prince was greeted with a lavish display of pomp and ceremony presided over by Trump on the South Lawn.
Talks between the two leaders are expected to advance security ties, civil nuclear cooperation, and multibillion-dollar business deals with the kingdom. But there will likely be no major breakthrough on Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel, despite pressure from Trump for such a landmark move.
The meeting underscores a key relationship — between the world’s biggest economy and the top oil exporter — that Trump has made a high priority in his second term as the international uproar around the killing of Khashoggi, a Saudi insider-turned-critic, has gradually faded.
US intelligence concluded that MBS approved the capture or killing of Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The crown prince denied ordering the operation but acknowledged responsibility as the kingdom’s de facto ruler.
The warm welcome for MBS in Washington is the latest sign that relations have recovered from the deep strain caused by Khashoggi’s murder.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
Israel hits Hamas training grounds
(JerusalemPost)
IDF strikes Hamas terror base in Lebanon, Health Ministry says 13 killed
Thirteen people were killed in the strike, and four were injured, the Lebanese Health Ministry stated.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3975911&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF strikes Hamas in Lebanon, November 18, 2025. (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESPERSON)ByTPS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 18, 2025 22:33Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2025 04:00
The IDF struck terrorists operating in a Hamas training compound in the Ain al-Hilweh area in southern Lebanon, the military said Tuesday.
The military said it was working against the establishment of the Hamas terrorist organization in Lebanon, and will continue to “act forcefully against Hamas terrorists wherever they operate.”
“The military compound that was struck was used by Hamas terrorists for training and exercises in order to plan and carry out terrorist attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel,” the IDF release stated.
Thirteen people were killed in the strike, and four were injured, the Lebanese Health Ministry stated.
Hospitals in Sidon, where the camp is located, issued calls for blood donations to help treat the wounded.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3975912&url=www.jpost.comThe IDF strikes terrorists operating in a Hamas training compound in the Ain al-Hilweh area in southern Lebanon, November 18, 2025. (credit: Section 27A of the Copyright Act)
The training facility that was attacked had been under surveillance for a long time, IDF sources told Ynet.
Intelligence teams were waiting for an opportunity when dozens of junior terrorists would gather in order to strike, the source said.
Lebanese channel Al-Mayadeen reported that the IDF struck with three projectiles.
IDF strikes Hamas training facility in Lebanon
Hamas denied that it has training compounds in Lebanon, and claimed that the IDF struck a sports field where teenage boys train, N12 News reported.
The terror organization also called the strike “a blatant violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty” and added that it “reflects the enemy’s true intentions and its behavior aimed at dragging the region into further escalation and instability.”
This comes after the IDF confiscated weapons, struck five terror sites, and killed three Hezbollah terrorists in a series of operations led by the IDF’s 91st Division last week.
Reuters contributed to this report.
IRAN/ISRAEL
Could Iran’s Khamenei feel threatened enough to strike Israel? – analysis
Between domestic dysfunction and Middle East geopolitics, could the Islamic Republic use Israel to rally the nation?
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears among his supporters for the first time since the Iran-Israel war, in Tehran, Iran. June 26, 2025.(photo credit: Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via Getty Images)ByALEX WINSTONNOVEMBER 19, 2025 11:34Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2025 11:56
Since the end of the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran in June, the Islamic Republic’s leadership has repeatedly sent out the message that the ceasefire with Israel is little more than a brief reprieve, to be resumed at a later date.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei set the tone in mid-July, warning that Iran remained fully prepared for renewed confrontation and could hit Israel “even harder” than during the 12-Day War should hostilities resume.
His message was reinforced by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who cautioned that any further Israeli or American strike would trigger a “more decisive” Iranian response. A response, Araghchi stressed, that would be impossible to obscure or downplay.
Iran’s senior military and political establishment soon sharpened the message. In August, Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s First Vice President, described the post-war situation not as a meaningful ceasefire but merely a “cessation of hostilities,” warning that a new war with Israel could erupt “at any moment.”
Top army officers echoed the same view, insisting that the current quiet is temporary and urging Iran to adopt a more offensive posture in expectation of renewed fighting. Perhaps the loudest voice has been that of Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, Khamenei’s influential military adviser, who declared repeatedly that Iran is “not in a ceasefire but in a stage of war.”
He predicted that another confrontation with Israel was likely and has stated that the Islamic Republic must duly prepare its missile and drone capabilities. All of this, coming from within the Supreme Leader’s circle, presents an Iranian narrative that war with Israel has not yet ended, that there is more to come, and that Tehran will be ready.
Concurrently, the domestic situation in Iran is verging on untenable. The country is facing one of its worst modern water crises. At the same time, inflation remains crushingly high.. Food prices have soared, and unemployment continues to climb.
Add to this widespread power outages, and general discontentment with the rule of the ayatollahs, coupled with growing public anger over corruption and mismanagement, and Iran’s internal pressures are close to reaching a breaking point.
So while its leaders pose for another confrontation abroad, things seem to be collapsing internally. Is there a chance that Iran could see war with Israel as a way out? Is it possible that the ayatollahs could use conflict to distract a dissatisfied population to maintain power? To “wag the dog” or “rally around the flag” as it is known?
“One of the lessons [the Iranians] have to learn from the 12-Day War is that on the one hand, we certainly saw some kind of rally around the flag during the war, although it was more about being mobilized around Iranian nationalism and patriotism due to the fact that Israel and the United States initiated a strike against Iran,” according to Dr. Raz Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
“Having said that, even after the war, they couldn’t really provide solutions to the very difficult challenges the Islamic Republic is dealing with. If it was very difficult for the Iranian regime to mobilize the population, even after a war initiated by Israel and the United States, I would assume that they realize by now that it’s going to be even more difficult to mobilize the population in case of a preemptive attack initiated by Iran itself.
“Even after the war, we immediately saw how most Iranians went back to dealing with ordinary difficulties and shortages of water and the economic crisis. So war doesn’t provide any solution. On the contrary, what we actually saw was more and more criticism inside Iran of the shortcomings and the incompetence of the regime to deal with the daily problems in Iran. In addition, they have to concentrate right now mostly on rebuilding their capacities, particularly in aerial defense and ballistic missile capabilities.
‘It’s going to be very difficult for Iran to trigger a war’
“And as long as they don’t do that, it’s going to be very difficult for Iran to trigger a war. It’s very risky,” Zimmt told The Jerusalem Post. “So we’re still left in a situation where the main concern would be either some kind of miscalculation between Iran and Israel, which means that neither side really wants to engage in a war. The likelihood for a decision by Iran to carry out a preemptive attack out of nowhere seems to be very, very unlikely.”
And what about the larger role of geopolitics in the Middle East? With increased talk of normalization between Saudi Arabia, long a Sunni enemy to Shi’ite Iran, and Israel, or a resumption of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, is it possible that such a scenario could emerge that pushes Iran into a corner?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated on Tuesday that he would like his country to be part of the Abraham Accords, but also make sure to secure a path to a two-state solution, during his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House
Trump ALSO addressed Saudi-Israeli normalization, saying he spoke with the crown prince about the Abraham Accords and that he received a positive response.
“I certainly think that [the Iranians] consider normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a very negative scenario,” Zimmt explained. “But it’s nothing that could make them make a decision which could trigger a new round of war, certainly not in a situation where they’re still not fully prepared for that.
Regarding Hezbollah, Zimmt stated that, “[Iran] certainly continues to try and rebuild Hezbollah. I don’t see Iran retaliating to any Israeli decision to engage in a limited war against Hezbollah, even if that involves some kind of attacks against Hezbollah infrastructures in the Beqaa Valley or even in Beirut. What Iran will do is to increase, as much as possible, its support for Hezbollah.”
Despite Israel’s military success against both Iran and Hezbollah, and the fall of Iran-ally Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria last December which removed an ally directly positioned on Israel’s border and allowed a smuggling route through to Lebanon, a November 6, US Treasury report stated that, “Since January 2025, the US-designated Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) has transferred over $1 billion to Hizbollah, mostly through money exchange companies.”
“Lebanon has an opportunity to be free, prosperous, and secure—but that can only happen if Hizballah (sic) is fully disarmed and cut off from Iran’s funding and control,” said US Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley in the report.
“The balance of power between state and non-state actors in the region, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, is still a balance of power which provides Iran with opportunities to continue its efforts to support its so-called Axis of Resistance,” Zimmt told the Post.
“We should not overestimate Iran’s capabilities. We shouldn’t have done that before the war, but certainly today, after two years of regional war and the defeat of Hezbollah, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the 12-Day War with Iran. But the Iranian threat is very much still there. The nuclear program has not been obliterated, and the missile capabilities are being reconstituted. And Iran’s support for its allies is still going on, so we still have to deal with that.”
Down but not out seems to be the message. Whilst Israelis may not lie awake at night awaiting the next barrage of ballistic missiles from the Islamic Republic, that is not to say it won’t come. Israel did considerable damage to Iran’s military and nuclear installations in the June war, and after the shock of October 7, it has done much to regain its military reputation. But the threats still remain, and as long as the ayatollahs can hold on to power in Iran, they will see Israel as the eternal enemy.
END
Witkoff, Zelensky, Erdogan To Meet In Turkey In Effort To Revive Peace Talks
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced he is going to Turkey Wednesday in order to try and revive negotiations with Russia toward reaching a settlement to end the war.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to be there for the talks, which would see Turkey play mediator, as it did during short-lived talks in the opening months of the war. However, the Kremlin has made clear that it won’t participate at this point, in the wake of the earlier planned Putin-Trump summit in Hungary having been called off.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “No, there will be no Russian representatives in Turkey tomorrow. For now, these contacts are taking place without Russian participation.”
But Peskov did say that President Vladimir Putin remains open to conversations with the US and Turkey on whatever results from the talks, but also emphasized that Moscow is still engaging Washington directly on any potential path forward.
Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is not expected in Ankara either, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be directly hosting.
“Dmitriev held very productive discussion with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on October 24-26 in the United States,” a Russian source told Reuters.
It remains that Russia has the leverage and upper-hand on the battlefield along the front lines, and yet Ukraine and its Western backers still refuse to contemplate territorial negotiations, or also a permanent renunciation of ever joining NATO.
According to the latest from the battlefield via TASS:
Russian troops liberated two communities in the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk Regions over the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported.
“Battlegroup North units liberated the settlement of Tsegelnoye in the Kharkov Region… Battlegroup East units advanced deep into the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Nechayevka in the Dnepropetrovsk Region,” the ministry said in a statement.
At this moment, Zelensky’s trip to Turkey appears all about the following: a source told AFP the Ukrainian leader’s “main goal is for the Americans to re-engage” in peace efforts.
“We are also working to restore POW exchanges and bring our prisoners of war home,” Zelensky has also stated. The US side has also affirmed that it is speaking to Moscow on the issue of arranging prisoner swaps.
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/TRUMP
LET US HOPE THAT THIS ENDS QUICKLY/ TOO MANY LIVES LOST:
(ZEROHEDGE)
‘Russia Feels It’s Being Heard’: Trump Advancing Secret 28-Point Plan To End Ukraine War
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 11:05 AM
Here we go again: the Trump administration is desperately seeking to revive the peace effort in Ukraine, this time coming up with a 28-point plan which is modeled off the so far successful Gaza ceasefire.
The US is said to have been quietly working with Moscow on a new initiative to end the war in Ukraine. It’s being called a ‘secret’ plan and effort, according to Axios. It has led to a series of behind-the-scenes meetings and draft plans as Washington explores what conditions might allow for a political settlement.
The 28-point framework is organized around four major themes: securing peace in Ukraine, establishing security guarantees, addressing broader European security concerns, and defining the future of US relations with both Russia and Ukraine. An important highlight is that the talks are taking place without Ukraine or Europe at the table.
A senior Kremlin official cited in Axios said he was “optimistic” about the plan’s prospects, arguing that it aligns more closely with Moscow’s views than previous diplomatic efforts.
But is control of land or territorial concessions to be resolved? It’s unclear whether the secret plan tackles this head on, but if Russian officials are warming to the 28-point plan, then it likely touches on this.
Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been overseeing the drafting process and has held extensive discussions with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and and top Putin representative in talks.
Dmitriev revealed to Axios he spent Oct. 24–26 in Miami in intensive talks with Witkoff and Trump advisers. Crucially he said that for the first time “we feel the Russian position is really being heard.”
Zelensky’s national security adviser, Rustem Umerov, has also been quoted as saying “We know the Americans are working on something.” This remark came as a planned meeting in Istanbul involving Witkoff, President Zelensky, and hosted by Erdogan on Wednesday has been altered. US Army representatives will reportedly be involved, and will meet with Zelensky, likely to pitch the new 28-point plan and brief him on progress.
Further interesting is that White House official told Axios Trump believes the war could “if flexibility is shown,” adding: “The president has been clear that it is time to stop the killing and reach a deal to end the war.”
Ukraine supporters are already vehemently complaining the talks are taking place secretly and without Kiev’s direct involvement or input…
A “secret plan” to end the war? What we know – and why Ukraine must stay vigilant. Axios and Reuters report that the White House is quietly working with Russia on a 28-point roadmap to end the war in Ukraine. The plan is reportedly divided into four areas:
Peace in Ukraine
Security guarantees
European security
Future U.S.–Russia–Ukraine relations The effort is said to be led by Steve Witkoff (U.S.) and Kirill Dmitriev (Russia). A planned meeting with President Zelensky in Turkey was postponed. ⸻ What’s clear • Negotiations are taking place behind closed doors without Ukraine’s full participation. • The plan is inspired by Trump’s Gaza cease-fire proposal. • Both U.S. and russian officials confirm the draft exists. ⸻ What’s unclear – and concerning • How it addresses territorial issues, sovereignty, and Ukraine’s future in European institutions. • Whether Ukraine and key European allies will truly influence the process — or merely be “informed.” • Whether this is genuine peacemaking or a quick-fix appeasement deal to move on. ⸻ Why it matters For Ukraine, peace cannot mean capitulation or a frozen conflict. Ending the war must protect sovereignty, dignity, and the right to determine Ukraine’s own future. A deal made over Ukraine — not with Ukraine — risks becoming another Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. For Europe, this is a test of whether the rules-based order still means anything. For the United States, a test of credibility: will it pursue peace with Ukraine, or peace around Ukraine? Peace is hopeful. But peace without justice is fragile. Ukraine wants peace. Just not at any price.
But then again, all the sides have been down this road before, and even recently, and yet at those moments Moscow’s real, pressing concerns were not directly dealt with, including a clear and permanent commitment that Ukraine will never join NATO, along with territorial concessions – starting especially with Crimea.
Trump expressed optimism in Tuesday comments, claiming that “I’ve actually stopped eight wars. I have another one to go with Putin. I’m a little surprised at Putin. It has taken longer than I thought.”
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
US Pressuring Ukraine To Make Serious Territorial Concessions In First: Report
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 02:29 PM
Update(1429ET): It looks like for the first time Washington is getting serious about ending the Ukraine war, now apparently offering territorial concessions. And the Trump White House is reportedly leaning on President Zelensky to accept, per the FT:
“According to people with direct knowledge of the document, the draft plan would require Ukraine to cede the remainder of the eastern Donbas region — including land currently under Kyiv control — and cut the size of its armed forces by half.
Crucially, it also calls for Ukraine to abandon key categories of weaponry and would include the rollback of US military assistance that has been vital to its defence, potentially leaving the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
It would also stipulate that Russian be recognized as an official state language in Ukraine and grant official status to the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church — provisions echoing long-standing Kremlin political objectives.”
The 28-point Trump also reportedly plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk. In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would mostly be frozen in place, according to the plan which is sure to be controversial in Europe.
* * *
Here we go again: the Trump administration is desperately seeking to revive the peace effort in Ukraine, this time coming up with a 28-point plan which is modeled off the so far successful Gaza ceasefire.
The US is said to have been quietly working with Moscow on a new initiative to end the war in Ukraine. It’s being called a ‘secret’ plan and effort, according to Axios. It has led to a series of behind-the-scenes meetings and draft plans as Washington explores what conditions might allow for a political settlement.
The 28-point framework is organized around four major themes: securing peace in Ukraine, establishing security guarantees, addressing broader European security concerns, and defining the future of US relations with both Russia and Ukraine. An important highlight is that the talks are taking place without Ukraine or Europe at the table.
A senior Kremlin official cited in Axios said he was “optimistic” about the plan’s prospects, arguing that it aligns more closely with Moscow’s views than previous diplomatic efforts.
But is control of land or territorial concessions to be resolved? It’s unclear whether the secret plan tackles this head on, but if Russian officials are warming to the 28-point plan, then it likely touches on this.
Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been overseeing the drafting process and has held extensive discussions with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and and top Putin representative in talks.
Dmitriev revealed to Axios he spent Oct. 24–26 in Miami in intensive talks with Witkoff and Trump advisers. Crucially he said that for the first time “we feel the Russian position is really being heard.”
Zelensky’s national security adviser, Rustem Umerov, has also been quoted as saying “We know the Americans are working on something.” This remark came as a planned meeting in Istanbul involving Witkoff, President Zelensky, and hosted by Erdogan on Wednesday has been altered. US Army representatives will reportedly be involved, and will meet with Zelensky, likely to pitch the new 28-point plan and brief him on progress.
Further interesting is that White House official told Axios Trump believes the war could “if flexibility is shown,” adding: “The president has been clear that it is time to stop the killing and reach a deal to end the war.”
Ukraine supporters are already vehemently complaining the talks are taking place secretly and without Kiev’s direct involvement or input…
But then again, all the sides have been down this road before, and even recently, and yet at those moments Moscow’s real, pressing concerns were not directly dealt with, including a clear and permanent commitment that Ukraine will never join NATO, along with territorial concessions – starting especially with Crimea.
Trump expressed optimism in Tuesday comments, claiming that “I’ve actually stopped eight wars. I have another one to go with Putin. I’m a little surprised at Putin. It has taken longer than I thought.”
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, November 10-17, 2025
Actress Sally Kirkland (Charlie’s Angels); Simpsons writer Dan McGrath; TV producer Eric Preven; C&W singer Todd Snider; blues musician Kat Williams; rapper Maxon Margiela (21) ; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerNov 19 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (124)
Actress Sally Kirkland Dies At 84: How Did Anna And Charlie’s Angels Actress Die Suddenly? Cause of Death Revealed
November 11, 2025
Anna and Charlie’s Angels actress Sally Kirkland breathed her last on Tuesday. She was 84. According to the reports, the Golden Globe winner and New York native was placed in hospice care in Palm Springs, Calif., over the weekend. Sources closed to the actress shared that she was battling dementia for about a year and was recently injured in a shower fall.
No cause of death reported.
Simpsons writer Dan McGrath dies aged 61 as family reveal heartbreaking cause of death
November 16, 2025
Emmy-award winning The Simpsons writer Dan McGarth has tragically passed away, aged 61, his heartbroken family have announced. The comedy scribe, who also worked on Saturday Night Live, King of the Hill and Gravity Falls, died following a stroke, his sister Gail McGrath Garabadian told the Hollywood Reporter. The veteran writer had been in treatment for a heart condition called cardiac amyloidosis for the past two years before passing outside of his home in Paola, Kansas, on May 3.
Renowned ‘Reba’ and ‘Santa Barbara’ Producer “Suddenly” Dies
November 14, 2025
Los Angeles, CA – Producer Eric Preven died at 62 on November 8 in Studio City of an apparent heart attack, per Deadline. According to the outlet, Preven was “a writer-producer on the sitcom Reba who produced hundreds of episodes of the daytime drama Santa Barbara.” He also was a journalist in Los Angeles. Preven Worked on a Number of TV Shows Preven broke into television by working on a number of shows, mainly in the 1990s.
Link
Country music singer’s death at 59 has fans heartbroken: ‘We are devastated’
November 16, 2025
Nashville, TN – Popular singer/songwriter Todd Snider died Saturday, just one day after his team announced that he had been hospitalized after a battle with walking pneumonia. A post to his Instagram account announced the 59-year-old’s passing. “Aimless Inc. Headquarters is heartbroken to share that our Founder, our Folk Hero, our Poet of the World, the Vice President of the Abrupt Change Dept., the Storyteller, our beloved Todd Daniel Snider has departed this world,” a post Saturday on his Instagram read. The lengthy statement closed with, “We love you Todd, sail on old friend, we’ll see you again out there on the road somewhere down the line. You’ll always be a force of nature.”
Asheville blues icon, Emmy-nominated musician Kat Williams dies, Artists Music Guild says
November 13, 2025
ASHEVILLE, NC – Local blues musician and Emmy-nominated chanteuse Kat Williams has died at age 58, according to the Artists Music Guild. “The Artists Music Guild is (saddened) by the breaking news of the passing of a true musical legend. Blue’s icon Kat Williams passed away unexpectedly tonight,” the guild said in a Facebook post Nov. 12. [paywall]
No cause of death reported.
Rising Florida Rapper Maxon Margiela Passes Away At 21
November 17, 2025
The rap world has gained another angel but lost another bright soul recently as underground rapper Maxon Margiela has passed away. Born in Orlando, Florida in 2004, he was just 21 years old. He reportedly died this weekend according to Kurrco. Ans have been extremely distraught and saddened by this tragic and shocking news online. His strong following believed he was one of the next stars to emerge from the Sunshine State.
No cause of death reported.
Jimmy Kimmel Announces Sudden Death of ‘Live!’ Bandleader Cleto Escobedo III
November 11, 2025
Jimmy Kimmel shocked viewers of his late night talk show on Tuesday with the death announcement of the show’s bandleader, Cleto Escobedo III. Escobedo led Cleto and the Cletones, the house band on Jimmy Kimmel Live!. The group has been with the show since its ABC premiere in 2003. Escobedo, also helped compose the program’s theme song. Kimmel announced the passing by expressing that he was “heartbroken,” noting to fans that he had known Escobedo since age 9. He also shared his condolences to the late musician’s family. Escobedo was 59, according to the Associated Press. No cause of death was given in Kimmel’s announcement.
Legendary DJ Back 2 Basics (Ricardo Gomez) passes away
November 12, 2025
Ricardo Gomez, known to many as DJ Back 2 Basics, was born on 7 February 1971 and passed away at 54 on 30 October 2025. More than a DJ, he was a pioneer, mentor, and a driving force in Brooklyn’s [NY] Caribbean music industry. For over three decades, he has used soca to unite people, inspire, and help dozens of upcoming artists reach the spotlight. After a brave fight with cancer, Ricardo’s passing leaves a deep void, but his legacy continues to echo through the music he shared.
Hall of Fame DB Kenny Easley dies at 66
November 15, 2025
Seattle Seahawks legend and Pro Football Hall of Famer Kenny Easley died Friday at the age of 66, the team confirmed Saturday. The Seahawks said in a statement that they were “deeply saddened” by the death of Easley, who played for the franchise through his entire career from 1981-1987. No information was provided on the cause of Easley’s death.
Clemson Hall of Fame Linebacker Bubba Brown Passes Away
November 11, 2025
CLEMSON, S.C. — Clemson Athletic Hall of Fame linebacker Marlon “Bubba” Brown, the school’s all-time leading tackler, passed away Monday night in a nursing facility in Etowah, Tenn., after a long illness. He was 67. Brown lettered for the Tigers from 1976-79, and 46 years after he played his last game, his 515 career tackles are still the most in school history. Brown recorded 75 tackles as a freshman and 120 as a sophomore, second-most on the team. He led the Tigers in tackles in 1978 with 170 and once again paced the team in 1979 with 150 as a senior. Brown, a native of Loudon, Tenn., was inducted into the Clemson Hall of Fame in 1999.
No cause of death reported.
Michael Ray Richardson, Four-Time All-Star Banned By League, Dies at 70
November 12, 2025
Michael Ray Richardson, a four-time All-Star with the Knicks and Nets who starred in Europe after the NBA banned him due to his cocaine use, died of prostate cancer Tuesday. He was 70. Drafted fourth by New York in 1978, he immediately established himself as a star by leading the league in both assists and steals in 1981. Two trades led him to New Jersey, where he made a fourth All-Star team in 1985 before a third positive cocaine test in three years resulted in a lifetime ban.
A photographer “died suddenly”:
George Tahinos Passes Away
November 17, 2025
The Slam family has lost one of our most talented and season contributors. It is with heavy hearts that we report renown wrestling photographer, historian and our friend George Tahinos has passed away. His family posted an announcement on his Facebook page: “It is with deep sadness that we announce the sudden loss of our dear cousin, George Tahinos, on Sunday, Nov. 9 as the result of a fatal cardiac incident.”
No age reported.
Moab remembers Fred Wilkinson: a trail builder, cyclist and friend who shaped the land he loved
November 14, 2025
Fred Wilkinson, a longtime Moab trail builder, mountain bike racer, pizza maker and campground host, died unexpectedly of natural causes the night of Nov. 3–4 in his RV at Juniper Campground in the Sand Flats Recreation Area. He was 56.
No cause of death reported.
Correction to our August report:
Cause behind 37-year-old bodybuilder Hayley McNeff’s sudden deathrevealed
November 12, 2025
The cause of death has been revealed for bodybuilding champion Hayley McNeff, who passed away unexpectedly at her home in Sudbury, Mass., on Aug. 8 at 37 years old. The Massachusetts Executive Office of Public Safety and Security confirmed Monday that Hayley McNeff, a former fitness influencer and champion bodybuilder, died from “acute intoxication” due to a fatal mix of heroin, fentanyl, 4-ANPP, cocaine, and norbuprenorphine.
Update to our report in August:
Fashion Designer Martha Nolan’s Final Texts Revealed After Her Death
November 14, 2025
Swimsuit designer Martha Nolan-O’Slatarra’s final text messages have been revealed months after she was found dead on a boat at the age of 33. According to a New York Magazine profile published earlier this month, Nolan had been texting investor Christopher Durnan about his involvement in her and business partner Dylan Grace’s East x East line shortly before her death.”If you guys are looking for more money, let’s sit down and talk about it,” Durnan, 60, allegedly wrote to Nolan, who ultimately agreed to meet the businessman alone while Grace, 30, was out of town in August.Grace, who spoke to the outlet, claimed that Nolan met Durnan on his boat at the Montauk Yacht Club.
”Martha does what Martha wants … or did,” Grace recalled, revealing that her friend stopped answering her phone while out on the boat. Grace said Nolan sent her boyfriend, Nick DiRubio, a text that she planned to order an Uber home at 1 a.m. the next morning. By 9:20 p.m. that night, Nolan went quiet in her and Grace’s group chat with their other friends. “Lol I’m at the yacht club now, my phone is on,” Nolan responded 10 minutes later. Another hour went by, and Nolan was found dead aboard the boat. “She was gone almost immediately,” Durnan’s lawyer Robert Holdman told the magazine, claiming that his client performed CPR after believing Nolan had a heart attack. “She was nonresponsive. … Chris is distraught. He watched his friend die in trauma. He’s absolutely destroyed.” Holdman continued, “It all happened immediately. She passed away, and everything went down from there. He went running to go look for help. He tried CPR – like it all happened, one right after another. There was no pause.”
Larry Brooks, Post legend and Hall of Fame hockey writer, dead at 75
November 13, 2025
The best nights, of so many very good nights, were the ones when Larry Brooks roamed the press level and the dressing room of Madison Square Garden, hands in his front pocket, notebook in his back pocket. The poker face was intact, and it was necessary, because tucked in that notebook was The Story. He had The Story, of course. He knew it. The players and the team’s brass knew it. All of the hundreds of potential sources who could’ve filtered him The Story knew it. His competitors sure knew it. Most of all, thousands of hockey fans hungry for news knew it, and knew that if there was something to be learned about the Rangers, the Devils or the Islanders, there was one place to find out about it. “The Post has to be not just a first-read, but the must-read,” Larry Brooks often said. “We all do what we can to make it so. And this is my small part of that.” He was right about most things, and wrong about that last one: he was a huge, larger-than-life part of it, all across the 38 years and two separate tenures that he worked here. That reign over the hearts and minds of the Post readers he fought for and fretted over ended Thursday morning, when Brooks died after a brief battle with cancer.
Beloved news anchor Jim Avila has died at 69 as colleague makes on-air announcement
November 14, 2025
Beloved news anchor Jim Avila has died at 69, the news was announced by ABC News Live anchor Diane Macedo. Diane did not share the cause of Jim Avila’s death but said that he had “passed away after a long illness.” ABC News posted the news about Jim’s death on their Instagram account and wrote: “Jim Avila, former ABC News senior correspondent and “20/20” correspondent, has passed away after a long illness. He was 69 years old.
CBS News mourns beloved ed
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MANDATES were MOOT (never legal) for the Malone Bourla etc. mRNA vaccine didn’t sterilize the virus (didn’t stop infection or transmission)! What killed most persons in COVID in USA, Canada, UK etc.?
It was no damn fake 95% false-positive PCR-created COVID non-pandemic (we never had a pandemic); no, it was the 1) fraud PCR test positive (PCR is a ‘process’, not a test), it was then
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 19 |
2)the subsequent sucking into the ‘black hole of COVID train, death train for MONEY making 3)the isolation of our vulnerable high-risk elderly 4)abuse of our elderly 5)bad physical abuse in all our health institutions 6)dehydration as no one wanted to touch the isolated persons so no one ensured they were taking in fluids 7)malnourishment as no one wanted to feed our precious elderly as they lay there in hospitals locked away 8)DNR orders were placed on them unknown to family (do not resuscitate) 9)denial of needed antibiotics for bacterial pneumonia often secondary to any viral issue 10) administration of powerful deadly breathing suppressing drugs like midazolam, ketamine, lorazepam, fentanyl, dia-morphine, propofol etc. 11)kidney and liver toxic failed Ebola drug Remdesivir 12)deadly ventilator that blew holes in lungs under trauma etc. (ventilator associated pneumonia) etc.
Most, 95% of persons who died during this fake fraud non-PCR manufactured pandemic (we never had a pandemic) after having a 95% false-positive PCR test when they were never positive, died due to the medical management of them. It is what was done to them by their medical doctors and health system, medical policies that Killed them!
these fuckers, these fuckers in our US and Canadian governments after they killed our loved ones with the fraud fake response, deadly COVID money train response, then subjected us to burying our family, we could not even see our dead family, we had funerals by ‘drive by’, we drove up to funeral windows to view the dead. these fuckers, how high must we hang them all? we need proper courts, judges, juries to deal with these demons and get the right verdicts and once found guilty of causing death, we HANG them! as per law.
No vaccine mandate anywhere in US, Canada etc. anywhere was ever legal based solely on the fact that the vaccine itself never stopped infection, replication, or transmission. There was NO, zero societal benefit so there could not be a mandate. This was personal impact, not societal if it could not stop transmission. But the fuckers imposed mandates. Again, who to hang and how high?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
The Wellness Company isn’t chasing profits — it’s trying to help people recover. While the government continues pushing vaccines, The Wellness Company is focusing on real solutions.
From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
Please consider support of a good PATRIOT company (in this PATRIOT economy) Drs. McCullough, Risch, Thorp, myself support (they are our sponsors), The Wellness Company; see the emergency preparation kit (key component being antibiotics you were denied by doctors, pharmacists, governments during the fraud COVID), first aid kit, travel emergency kit, contagion control kit etc. Please consider the SPIKE SUPPORT (spike protein DETOX dissolving spike from mRNA vaccine, this is critical to remove spike form the mRNA vaccine/and DNA viral vector) formula with NATTOKINASE as well as the triple formula (SPIKE SUPPORT, BROMELAIN, CIRCUMIN)
If you wish to give a donation to help me, you can at:
Zelle:
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Rearranging The Chairs
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 10:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Rearranging the Chairs
Tuesday was another down day for most markets as the US weekly ADP jobs report suggested the labor backdrop is weakening and housing starts sagged. As the FT puts it, ‘Oracle’s astonishing $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $60bn.’
Wednesday is mixed so far in Asia for bonds: Australia is seeing its 10-year yield down around 2bps and Japan’s equivalent is up 3bp – and neither is what their economies need right now; but there as elsewhere, with K-shapes all over, nasty politics, and worrying geopolitics, what is? That question it tied up with ‘who is?’
Treasury Secretary Bessent just said he doesn’t want to be Fed Chair but that person will hopefully be named by Xmas – Trump thinks he already knows who he wants . Does anybody think it’s going to be a strong, independent, gnostic, hawk deliberately ignorant of geopolitics, who will focus on 2% CPI and clash with the White House and Treasury? I thought not.
Politico reports Spain and Germany are gunning to head the ECB in 2027, with former Bank of Spain governor de Cos, now running the BIS, in a strong position – though moving him could cost Europe its BIS leadership if Trump wants an American to run the central bankers’ central bank. Bundesbank president Nagel is mentioned, as is him recently annoying Chancellor Merz in expressing support for Eurobonds for defence purposes. Germany has more hawkish candidates – or it could support one from elsewhere, such as former president of the Dutch central bank Knot.
Markets will soon focus on this rearranging of Chairs… and that it’s on the Titanic(?) As noted yesterday, the White House sees the neoliberal, central-bank centric, inflation-targeting world no longer exists: so, logically, it won’t exist under the next Fed Chair. Monetary policy and fiscal policy will (further) conjoin, as will FX, trade, defence, industrial, and energy policy – and others to boot. Covering any of those areas will require a real understanding of that connection and the nested hierarchy of national (or bloc) Grand Macro Strategy driving them.
Is that just a US issue? No. The PBOC operates in a similar fashion, so the world’s two largest economies would be outside the neoliberal norm. The Bank of England could follow under Reform. Even Europe will be forced to grapple with serious structural issues, which the Draghi Report argue require bold, original, joined-up thinking – and it’s not as if the ECB hasn’t changed hugely since its inception.
The real issue will be finding someone who can Chair a central bank as it will need to be run when existing candidates have, by default, been trained on how it used to need to be run. That’s not going to be easy. A related issue will be finding financial media and analysts willing to keep up with this dizzying set of conflating changes: that’s also going to be a hard sell when most of the specialised and siloed industry is built around CPI or payrolls higher/lower games.
Meanwhile, in geopolitics and related geoeconomics what the BOJ, Fed, ECB, financial media, and markets are all going to have to grapple is long and growing:
Japan issued a safety alert for its citizens in China as that diplomatic row escalates, with neither side seen willing to back down. Japanese businesses are bunkering down for the expected fallout. That’s as the US Ambassador to Japan publicly reiterated that the US will defend it if needed, in regards to the disputed Senkaku islands, which the Chinese coastguard just sailed past, as the PLA-N’s Fujian aircraft carrier completes its first training exercise after entering service.
Politico argues trench warfare in Ukraine is now far worse as drones create a “hellscape”. The FT underlines it takes 45 days(!) to move a tank from Rotterdam to the EU-Ukraine border due to infrastructure issues: a “military Schengen” is seen needed, alongside vast budgets – as a UK review has found Britain is “not ready to defend itself.”
The structure of the €140bn EU loan to Ukraine secured by Russian assets is seen by critics as deliberately designed to seize the underlying collateral as Ukraine will never be able to repay: how does that help the ‘liberal world order’ or hopes to extend the global reach of the Euro? That’s as President Zelenskyy will today visit Turkey to try to “reinvigorate” US peace talks which are likely to leave the EU holding the can even if they succeed.
In terms of EU ‘strategic autonomy’, Rio Tinto has placed its €3bn lithium project in Serbia on indefinite “care and maintenance”; Norway is furious with after being rejected for an EU metals-trade tariff exemption; and Macron stated the EU refuses to be either a US or China “vassal” in AI. S’il vous plait, use “Europe preference” to build your own system, alienating the US, at a cost of trillions of Euros, while pushing electricity prices even higher, as generals make clear AI is essential for the military, and only one standard can be used, so if the US stays in NATO, it’s from the US.
China’s PLA media accused the US of “gunboat diplomacy” vs Venezuela, as Maduro says he’s “ready to talk” to the White House. That ‘s as the Wall Street Journal notes ‘The ‘JPMorgan Boys’ Behind the U.S. Bailout for Argentina’, where “President Javier Milei’s administration is packed with former Wall Street traders trying to steer market forces.” Forces, certainly: then markets.
Trump designated Saudi Arabia as the latest US major non-NATO ally, saying MBS “knew nothing” about Khashoggi’s murder, and “things happen.” That’s as the Crown Prince pledged to invest $1 trillion in the US, reportedly pressed it to intervene to end the Sudan war and said he wants to join the Abraham Accords, which still requires a path to a Palestinian state. He now gets F-35s (years from now, and over Israeli objections) and US AI chips.
A US report argued the government needs an overhaul to compete with China: logically, yes, as it’s revealed Wright USA, an insurance company that insured FBI and CIA agents, was acquired by China’s Fosun Group, giving it access to the personal data of US secret service employees. Yet a new US body would also be a single-point of failure – and now do everyone else.
In the economy, the FT notes ‘the growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers’ – yes, and now do everywhere else, recalling these are what central-bank technocrats and market analysts are supposed to work with. The Wall Street Journal adds that this is ‘The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy.’
In European politics, Germany’s Merz is facing a conservative rebellion over pension reforms, France still doesn’t have a budget, France and Germany are clashing over a controversial EU budget structure, Danish voters are turning on PM Frederiksen over housing costs (says Politico), and Ireland’s Donohoe has resigned as the Eurogroup president to run the World Bank.
In US politics, Congress approved the release of the Epstein files. Once Trump signs, expect a flood of headline-grabbing info, or at least that which is not redacted for legal or national security reasons, which the legislation grants AG Bondi the power to do.
One might think this has nothing to do with markets or Fed Chairs or geopolitics and geoeconomics. Until one sees an already-released Epstein email forced former Treasury Secretary and nearly-Fed Chair and former Harvard President Larry Summers to step away from public life because it revealed he asked Epstein for advice on how to seduce a Chinese economist mentee – who was the daughter of a senior CCP official, a former Vice Minister of Finance, and at that time chairing the World Bank-rival Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank HQ-ed in Beijing.
But let’s all talk about 2% CPI – clearly that’s where all the real action is.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Constellation Gets $1 Billion Loan From US Govt To Restart Three Mile Island
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 06:50 PM
One week ago we said that “hundreds of billions” of dollars are about to be loaned out to nuclear projects by the US government. Well, the first billion is about to be wired.
The Wall Street Journal reports Constellation Energy has secured a $1 billion federal loan from the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) to restart the Unit 1 reactor at the Three Mile Island reactor plant in Pennsylvania, recently renamed the Crane Clean Energy Center. Constellation has said it would pay about $1.6 billion to restart the plant in 2027.
CEG stock shot up 5% after hours on the news.
The plant’s Unit 2 reactor infamously suffered a partial meltdown in the 1970s, but Unit 1 continued to operate without issue for decades until it was shut down in 2019. The reactor was shuttered due to its inability to compete economically with cheap natural gas, as the company notes “before it was prematurely shuttered due to poor economics, this plant was among the safest and most reliable nuclear plants on the grid”.
Constellation announced the intention to restart Unit 1 after Microsoft signed a $16 billion, 20-year offtake agreement in an effort to secure a carbon-free source of reliable energy for their data centers.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Three Mile Island will add around 800 megawatts of power generation to the grid. Wright added that “constellation’s restart of a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania will provide affordable, reliable, and secure energy to Americans across the Mid-Atlantic region. It will also help ensure America has the energy it needs to grow its domestic manufacturing base and win the AI race.”
WSJ notes “the deal calls for Constellation to revive the plant’s undamaged reactor, which was too costly to run and closed in 2019. The power generated will be sold to Microsoft under a 20-year deal. The tech industry has a nearly insatiable demand for 24-hour-a-day power for AI data centers.”
The 835 MW reactor produces enough power for approximately 800,000 homes and will provide reliable and affordable baseload power to the PJM Interconnection region. Along with clean energy, the project will strengthen grid reliability and create over 600 jobs.
Thomas Hochman, Director of Energy & Infrastructure Policy with the Foundation for American Innovation, notes multiple important points with the latest closed LPO deal, in particular that it’s “it’s really the first LPO loan to tackle the issue of AI-driven load growth”.
He also said that it’s a novel construct between a technology firm and an energy developer and represents the tech sector’s continued move into the infrastructure space.Importantly, he added that this is “not a behind-the-meter deal. The electrons from Three Mile Island will flow directly into PJM, benefitting ratepayers and adding extra reserve margin to the grid.”
As for today’s loan, it’s just the first of many in a space we expect to see a flood of capital…
… as the US scrambles to catch up to China’s massive nuclear head start.
END
SYRIA
Syria Has Put A Big Western Flag In Its Gas Patch, Less Than Year After Assad Overthrow
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,
Syria has just put a big Western flag in its gas patch. The state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company has signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips to develop existing gas fields and hunt for new ones, in a bid to drag the country’s power sector out of wartime ruin. Damascus says the deal could lift gas output by 4–5 million cubic meters per day within a year from today’s battered base.
That target is not trivial. Syria’s domestic gas production has collapsed from 8.7 bcm in 2011 to about 3 bcm in 2023. On a rough cut, that’s around 8 mcm/d today; hitting the ministry’s ambition would mean boosting volumes by roughly 50–60% if everything shows up on time and on spec.
The pitch is straightforward: more gas into the grid, fewer blackouts, and less reliance on emergency molecules from Azerbaijan and Qatar flowing via regional deals and the Arab Gas Pipeline.
But the MoU is as much about geopolitics as kilowatt-hours. Washington has already lifted core oil and transport sanctions on Syria and backed a U.S. consortium led by Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG to design a national energy masterplan.
The broader Western strategy, laid out in detail by policy analysts earlier this year, is to pull Syria back into the U.S.–U.K. orbit, lock in long-term energy rights, and dilute Russia’s once-dominant position built around Tartus, Khmeimim, and a web of pre-war upstream deals.
All of this is happening while President Ahmed al-Sharaa is busy proclaiming tightened internal security. Damascus recently trumpeted the foiling of Islamic State plots against the president and used the scare to justify new counterterrorism powers that extend security control over civilian areas.
Western services broadly accept that the IS threat is real but geographically limited, yet the narrative of “stability first, investment second” is proving useful for the new regime.
For ConocoPhillips, the prize is early-mover exposure to a gas market being rebuilt with IMF attention, UN sanctions relief, and heavy U.S. political sponsorship.
The risk is that today’s headline MoU never matures into bankable contracts if security, financing, or politics wobble. In Syria, that’s not a tail risk. It’s the base case you underwrite around.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA
Venezuela Sentences Doctor To 30 Years For WhatsApp Message
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 03:25 PM
The Venezuelan socialist regime has just sentenced a 65-year-old doctor, Marggie Orozco, to 30 years in prison for criticizing the regime of socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro in a WhatsApp voice note in 2024.
Orozco was reportedly found guilty of “treason to the fatherland, incitement to hatred, and conspiracy” in complaining about the regime’s distribution of the often hard-to-find domestic gas cylinders in her community.
She has already suffered two heart attacks in the last two years, including one while in prison.
Some on the left, including members of the Chicago Teachers’ Union, have praised Venezuela despite being a brutal authoritarian regime.
This conviction was notably under the regime’s “anti-hate speech” law for those spreading “hateful content.”
As many in the West denounce this conviction, it is important to note that Western countries use the same ill-defined laws to punish citizens in their own countries for “inciting hatred” or spreading dangerous disinformation.
In the United Kingdom, a person was convicted for having “toxic ideologies.” A woman in the UK was arrested for silently praying near an abortion clinic.
Canada has used the same rationales as Russia for punishing its citizens for political views.
The difference appears not to be the limits on free speech but who is yielding these powers.
It is like arguing that your country may have the same authoritarian laws, but it is a benign authoritarianism.
If the Orozco case disgusts you, you should also be disgusted by Western countries and the European Union wielding the same powers.
ECUADOR
Ecuador Slams Door On Hosting US Military Base In National Referendum
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Ecuador just had a major vote which has gone some underreported in US mainstream media, given perhaps the current focus on the Venezuela crisis. The Latin American country held a referendum Sunday on allowing allowing the return of foreign military bases in the country.
This was ultimately seen as a vote on allowing an American military presence, which the US has long sought to reestablish. Ecuadoreans voted down the proposal in a significant blow to President Daniel Noboa, who has sought a change in the constitution. Since 2008, the constitution has banned foreign bases on Ecuadorean soil.
One of Noboa’s key rationales for seeking a reversal of the prior legislation was to have outside assistance in fighting soaring crime and drug-trafficking in the country and region.
The referendum was held 16 years after the United States was made to shut down a military site on Ecuador’s Pacific coast.
The New York Times suggests that Ecuadoreans currently see the Trump administration pushing its military might around in the Caribbean while threatening countries like Venezuela, Colombia, and even more recently Mexico:
They soundly rejected a national referendum on Sunday that he had backed, aimed at authorizing a foreign miliary presence in Ecuador. With more than 98 percent of ballots counted, 61 percent opposed the measure.
The vote comes as the region has been roiled by the intensifying U.S. military campaign against boats the Trump administration claims are smuggling drugs.
The Ron Paul Institute also sees in this a grass roots movement among foreign peoples to reign in US foreign policy and militarism in their lands. Journalist and pundit Adam Dick writes the following:
There is not a lot of reason for hope for the US to start adhering soon to a noninterventionist foreign policy. Indeed, President Donald Trump has been moving the US in the opposite direction. He continued US participation in the wars of his predecessor. This includes the Ukraine and Israel wars, in regard to which Trump had promised, in the lead-up to becoming president, to bring peace very quickly. Further, Trump has begun a new war against Venezuela and is threatening to pursue a new “Global War for Christians,” starting with threats of US military attacks in Nigeria. Meanwhile, Congress does nothing to stop or curtail the intervention.
There seems to be little hope of the US government choosing to move toward nonintervention abroad soon. Maybe some of the best hope for change in that direction comes from people in other countries saying “no more” to aiding the US government’s interventionist pursuits.
On Sunday, a majority of voters in Ecuador voted in a national ballot measures election against allowing the US government to have military bases in the South American country. The “no” vote win occurred despite Ecuador President Daniel Noboa strongly campaigning for the ballot measure’s approval.
So long as Americans fail to put an end to their government’s interventions abroad, there is hope that people in Ecuador and elsewhere around the world can impose some restraint.
Also in the background has been Trump admin officials really pushing and reviving concept of influence in the world based on the 18th century Monroe Doctrine.
The historic Monroe Doctrine declared the Western Hemisphere off-limits to other countries, while vowing at the same time the US would stay out of European affairs. Of course, Washington is currently only interested in the former part of this and not so much the latter.
END
BRAZIL
this is big!! It will bring down a lot of people
(zeorhedge)
Brazil’s Banco Master Collapses: CEO Detained, Regulator Shuts Lender Down
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Here’s one that might surprise some New York City voters: it turns out banks don’t seem to prosper under communism. For proof look no further than Brazil where authorities moved Tuesday to shut down Banco Master SA as federal police arrested six people — including CEO Daniel Vorcaro, according to Bloomberg.
The arrests were part of a widening fraud probe. One person said Vorcaro had planned to leave the country that day.
The central bank announced it would liquidate the lender’s assets and appointed an outside administrator, adding that assets belonging to Master’s controllers and former executives were now unavailable. Police said roughly 12 billion reais were frozen and that luxury cars, art, and 1.6 million reais in cash were seized.
Bloomberg writes that the investigation, Operation Compliance Zero, began in 2024 over allegations that a financial institution issued fabricated credit instruments and sold them to another bank, later swapping them for different assets without proper evaluation. Police chief Andrei Rodrigues said: “We are conducting an important operation, in collaboration with the Central Bank and the Council for Financial Activities Control, working together to address a crime against the financial system.”
O Globo reported the receiving bank was Banco de Brasilia (BRB). BRB said its CEO Paulo Henrique Costa and its CFO were temporarily removed for 60 days but that no arrest was made, and it maintains compliance standards.
Master’s downfall followed years of rapid expansion — including an 86% average annual rise in lending, splashy Miami offices, and acquisitions — financed partly through a 4-billion-reais credit line from Brazil’s deposit-insurance fund (FGC). A December 2023 rule change undercut that support and set off investor flight.
The bank had been seeking rescue capital for months. On Monday it announced a plan to sell its commercial operations to a group led by Fictor Holding SA, but regulators would have needed to approve the deal. Master had also been trying to sell its fintech Will Bank, with talks reported between Master and Mubadala.
Regulators had already rejected a controversial merger with Banco de Brasilia, which critics likened to a government-backed bailout.
Bloomberg previously reported that officials were alarmed by links between Master’s proposed deal and firms involved in a major money-laundering probe. Asset managers Reag Investimentos SA and Trustee DTVM, which serviced Master, were under investigation in a multistate operation targeting criminal schemes tied to fuel distribution. Both firms denied wrongdoing and said they were cooperating, while Master said it was one of their many clients.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1568 DOWN 0.0012 PTS OR125 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MIXED
USA/ YEN 155.98 UP 0.451 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3117 DOWN .0030 OR 30 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4023 UP 0.0017 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.93 PTS OR 0.18%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 88.38 PTS OR 0.38%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.25%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 99.38PTS OR 0.38%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.93 POINTS OR 0.18%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.25 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 165.28 PTS OR 0.34%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4111.60
silver:$52.30
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.65 UP 21 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.0450 % UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.771% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.344 UP 5 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.202 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.444 down 1/4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7026 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1551 UP 0.0028 OR 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.66 UP 1.126 OR YEN IS DOWN 113 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.6000 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.441 UP 6 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS pts to 1.4015
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.1107 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.1138
TURKISH LIRA: 42.36 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.771 UP 2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.344 UP 4 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.129% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.754 UP 1 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.581 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4124.20
SILVER AT 10;00: 52.21
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 44 PTS OR 0.47%
GERMAN DAX: DOWN 17.67 pts or 0.08%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 14 pts or 0.18%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 62.30 pts or 0.39%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 187.15. or 0.49%
WTI Oil price 59.11 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 63.17 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.87 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 38/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.256 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.823 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1536 DOWN 0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3057 DOWN .0089 OR 89 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6010 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.450 UP 6 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.772 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.339 UP 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.17 UP 1.650 OR YEN DOWN 165 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4048 UP 0.0064 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 64 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 59.48
Brent OIL: 63.62
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.1424
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 PTS to 4.757%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.598 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.262 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.824 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.07 UP 61 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.33 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.26 UP 0 AND 75/100 roubles //
GOLD $4077.55 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 51.26 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 47.03 OR 0.10%
NASDAQ 100 UP 137.47 PTS OR 0.56%
VOLATILITY INDEX 23..66 DOWN 1.03 PTS OR 4.17%
GLD: $ 374./92 UP 0.61 PTS OR 0.13%
SLV/ $46.45 UP 0.35 PTS OR OR 10.76%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 241.95 PTS OR 0.81%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Fractured Fed Feeds Hawkish Flows; Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Pump’n’Dump
WRAPUP;
ES and NQ rise after strong NVIDIA earnings – Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 04:58 PM
- US stocks were choppy, but ultimately settled in the green as participants awaited NVIDIA earnings.
- ES and NQ surged as NVIDIA (NVDA) rose over 4% following strong earnings.
- The Dollar saw buying on Wednesday, and to the detriment of all G10 peers amid a notable hawkish repricing in Fed money markets.
- Markets now only assign a c. 26% chance of a 25bps cut in December (prev. 48%) after the new BLS data schedule shows the FOMC will not see the Nov. or Oct.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Foreign Bond Investment, Chinese LPR, and BoJ’s Koeda.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
- US stocks were choppy, but ultimately settled in the green as participants awaited NVIDIA earnings.
- SPX +0.38% at 6,642, NDX +0.56% at 24,641, DJI +0.10% at 46,139, RUT -0.04% at 2,348
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NVIDIA EARNINGS
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.30 (exp. 1.24), Revenue 57.00bln (exp. 54.41bln), Q4 Revenue view 63.7-66.3bln (exp. 62.2bln). Data centre revenue 51.2bln (exp. 48.3bln). Gaming revenue 4.3bln (exp. 4.4bln). Gross margin 73.4% (exp. 73.5%, prev. guided 73-74%).
- Commentary: “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out”.
- Guidance: Q4 Revenue view 63.7-66.3bln (exp. 62.2bln). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50bps. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately USD 6.7bln and USD 5.0bln, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately USD 500mln, excluding gains and losses from non-marketable and publicly-held equity securities.
- Reaction: NVIDIA shares soared +4.2% after-hours, lifting ES (+0.9%) and NQ (+1.5%) in tandem.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- The Dutch government said it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, is positive about measures taken by China to ensure chip supply, and will continue engaging in constructive talks with China, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Key White House officials are pressing lawmakers on Capitol Hill to keep AI chip export restrictions to China out of the annual defense policy bill, according to four sources familiar with the matter, via Axios.
DELAYED DATA UPDATE
- The US November jobs report has been rescheduled for December 16th at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT, with the October NFP to be released alongside November but without an unemployment rate. The BLS said the October 2025 Employment Situation Report has been cancelled, noting the Establishment Survey (NFP) data will be published with November’s release on December 16th, while Household Survey data (unemployment rate) could not be collected, via BLS.
FOMC MINUTES
- FOMC minutes revealed a divided committee on the appropriate pace of easing, with many favouring a 25bp cut, several preferring to hold rates, and one advocating a more forceful 50bp reduction. Supporters of a cut pointed to rising downside risks in employment and limited signs of renewed inflation pressures, while those opposed emphasized stalled progress toward the 2% target and insufficient confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path. Despite broad agreement that policy is moving gradually toward neutral, views diverged on how restrictive current settings remained.
- Most participants judged that further cuts are appropriate, but several did not see a December cut as likely, while some thought it could be appropriate if the economy evolves as expected. Concerns about inflation remained persistent, particularly in core non-housing services, expected tariff pass-through, and the risk that prolonged inflation overshoots could lift expectations. However, some noted that inflation excluding tariffs was close to target, and productivity gains or a softer labour market could help curb price pressures. Labour market conditions were seen as softening gradually, with structural factors such as AI-driven investment at play, and activity was moderate with strength concentrated in higher-income households.
- Most members supported concluding balance-sheet runoff by December 1st and favoured a larger Treasury bill share for flexibility. Several members warned that elevated asset valuations, especially in AI-related equities, left markets vulnerable to corrections. The minutes also touched on asset prices, highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in stock prices, especially if AI-related prospects are reassessed abruptly. After the minutes, money market pricing saw further rate cut bets pared, with just 6bps of easing priced, implying a 24% probability of a rate cut in December versus 7bps before the minutes. Rate cut bets had already begun to ease after the BLS delayed the October and November jobs reports to December 16th, after the December 10th FOMC. Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that while December remains uncertain, substantial easing is likely ahead.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump reiterated his criticisms of Fed Chair Powell, saying rates are too high, according to Reuters.
- BoC Deputy Governor Vincent said Canada’s weak productivity problem has become more urgent and is a systemic issue requiring a coordinated, economy-wide approach; he said the country is stuck in a vicious cycle where weak productivity makes it harder to meet challenges, shocks to the economy have become more frequent, and Canada is too vulnerable to their impacts. He added that when assessing inflation, the Bank places particular importance on the relationship between rising labour costs and productivity, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- US International Trade USD (Aug) -59.6B vs. Exp. -61.0B (Prev. -78.3B, Rev. -78.2B)
- Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (mid-Nov) 205; +1.1% across the first 15-days of November vs October, -0.2% Y/Y
FX
- The Dollar saw buying on Wednesday, and to the detriment of all G10 peers amid a notable hawkish repricing in Fed money markets, helping the Buck extend on earlier gains. Markets now only assign a c. 26% chance of a 25bps cut in December (prev. 48%) after the new BLS data schedule shows the FOMC will not see the Nov. or Oct.
- G10 FX saw losses across the board, and while most of it was Dollar-driven, there was some currency-specific newsflow; Yen saw notable weakness after the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she did not have specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.
- Cable traded between 1.3044-3155, with the Pound seeing weakness on UK CPI. Recapping, headline figures were in line with expectations whilst the services figures were cooler-than-expected.
FIXED INCOME
- T-Notes were slightly lower across the curve on Wednesday as traders pare rate cut bets, with BLS pushing back Oct and NFP job reports, while FOMC minutes lean hawkish.
- US sold USD 16bln of 20-year bonds; High Yield: 4.706% (prev. 4.506%, six-auction avg. 4.820%); WI: 4.704%. Tail: 0.2bps (prev. -1.2bps, six-auction avg. -0.3bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.41x (prev. 2.73x, six-auction avg. 2.66x). Dealers: 11.4% (prev. 10.0%, six-auction avg. 11.9%). Directs: 29.2% (prev. 26.3%, six-auction avg. 22.7%). Indirects: 59.5% (prev. 63.6%, six-auction avg. 65.3%)
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices saw heavy selling on US’ proposed Ukraine/Russia peace plan.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said Russia may reach its OPEC+ oil-output quota levels by year-end, noting it is steadily increasing output in November with growth slightly above October; he said Russia does not plan to voluntarily reduce output and is sticking to the OPEC+ agreement. He added sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have not affected Russia’s oil output, the discount on Russian oil will gradually decrease and soon reach its minimum once the market adjusts, and that Russia has fully compensated for prior overproduction under OPEC+. He said fuel prices have stabilised with retail prices starting to decline and maintained the 2025 oil-output projection at 510mln tonnes, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- US EIA Weekly Crude Production Change (bbl) -28k (Prev. 211k)
- US EIA Weekly Crude Production 13.834M (Prev. 13.86M)
- US EIA Weekly Crude Production Change -0.2% (Prev. 1.55%)
- US EIA Weekly Refining Util w/e 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 3.4%)
- US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 2.327M vs. Exp. -0.227M (Prev. -0.945M)
- US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 0.171M vs. Exp. -1.215M (Prev. -0.637M)
- US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -3.426M vs. Exp. -0.603M (Prev. 6.413M)
- US EIA Wkly Crude Cushing w/e -0.698M (Prev. -0.346M)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US officials are reportedly close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, with the deal expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November and possibly as soon as this week, via Politico.
- Russia is not holding contacts with US Special Envoy Witkoff, via RIA citing Peskov.
- US and Russian officials have drafted a new peace plan for Ukraine, with a sweeping 28-point proposal that would include territorial concessions and a rollback of American military assistance, according to FT.
- US proposals to end the war reportedly include Ukraine ceding territory and some weapons and reducing the size of its armed forces, with the US signalling to President Zelensky that he must accept the framework and its main points, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President Trump’s aides reportedly see no rush to levy the promised semiconductor tariffs, with the administration taking a more cautious approach to avoid tensions with China; no final decision has been made, though a White House and Commerce Department official disputed that the administration had adjusted its posture, according to Reuters citing sources.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- The EU proposed delaying the timeline for applying high-risk AI rules to December 2027 from August 2026, according to Reuters.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, targeting a reduction of GBP 150–170 per year, with a cut to VAT on energy bills also under consideration, via Politico citing sources.
DATA RECAP
- UK CPI YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.8%); MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
- UK Core CPI YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%); CPI MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.00%)
- UK CPI Services YY (Oct) 4.50% vs. Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.70%); MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.40% (Prev. -0.30%)
- UK ONS House Price Index: +2.6% in the 12-months to September
- EU Current Account SA, EUR (Sep) 23.1B (Prev. 11.9B)
- EU HICP Final YY (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
USA DATA RELEASES
FOMC Minutes Expose Fractured Fed; “Many” See No Tariff Inflation, “Several” Fear Disorderly Drop In Stocks
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 – 03:00 PM
Since the last FOMC meeting (Oct 29th), gold is the best performing asset (along with the dollar) as bonds, stocks, and oil are all down notably…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds for the December meeting continued to tumble after Powell’s hawkish comments (and the follow-up FedSpeak). Today saw BLS confirm no more payrolls data before the next Fed meeting and that pushed expectations even more hawkishly lower…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, The Fed cut rates by 25bps in the October meeting to 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters: 1 hawkish (Schmid) and 1 dovish (Miran). Other non-voters have been out recently suggesting they did not support a cut.
While markets have made up their minds on the rate-cut decision, as we noted earlier, we’ll be watching for color on the hawk/dove split; but, most eyes will be on discussions around The Fed’s balance sheet (the end of QT) and the level of reserves being somewhere between ‘abundant’ and ‘ample’.
So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?
On the rate-cut decision, there is a hawkish bias (‘Several’ is less than ‘many’)
- *FED: `SEVERAL‘ SAID DECEMBER CUT `COULD WELL BE’ APPROPRIATE
- Several participants said another cut in December “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” before the next meeting.
- *FED: `MANY‘ SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE
- “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the minutes said.
The doves are doing God’s work on the jobs market…
“Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions.”
But… the hawks are there too to warn you off…
“Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective.“
AI/Valuations are in the back of their minds…
Some participants commented on stretched asset valuations in financial markets, with several of these participants highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in equity prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of the possibilities of AI-related technology.
A couple of participants cited risks associated with high levels of corporate borrowing.
Finally, and perhaps the most notable line was with regard to inflation…
Simply put, the Minutes suggest that tariff inflation is no longer a pressing concern…
“Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment.”
…which helps explain why so “many” of The Fed are increasingly focused on jobs.
Full Breakdown:
On current outlook:
- Participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year.
- Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data.
- Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions.
- Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment.
- Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective.
- Participants judged that a careful balancing of risks was required and agreed on the importance of well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations in achieving the Committee’s dual-mandate objectives.
On the neutral rate and financial conditions
- Some said policy would remain restrictive even after a 0.25ppt cut.
- Some, citing resilient activity, supportive conditions or real-rate estimates, said policy was not clearly restrictive.
- Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive of activity.
On Inflation
- Participants noted inflation had moved up and remained somewhat above target; core inflation stayed elevated.
- Several said inflation excluding tariff effects was close to target.
- Many said inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of timely return to 2%.
- Most noted further rate cuts could add to risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as lack of commitment to 2% inflation objective
- Several cited persistent core non-housing services inflation as keeping inflation above 2%.
- Many expected further pickup in core goods inflation from tariff pass-through.
- Several highlighted uncertainty around tariff effects and firms’ delayed pricing.
- Several reported businesses planned gradual price increases due to higher tariff-related input costs.
- A few said productivity gains via automation or AI could limit pass-through.
- A few said a softer labor market would restrain pressures.
- A couple said lower immigration would lessen housing demand and strengthen housing disinflation.
- Many noted risks that prolonged above-target inflation could raise longer-term expectations.
Labor market & growth
- Participants observed slowed job gains and a higher unemployment rate before the shutdown.
- Participants saw indicators showing gradual softening without sharp deterioration.
- Many attributed the slowdown to reduced labour supply and less labour demand amid uncertainty.
- Many said structural factors, including Al-related investment, were dampening labor demand.
- Participants generally expected further gradual softening with less dynamism.
- Several warned low turnover and hiring hesitancy posed downside risks.
- A few saw rising unemployment in sensitive groups or concentrated job gains as signalling broader weakness.
- Some noted persistent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, possibly due to productivity gains and demographic constraints.
- Participants noted moderate activity; many reported firmer consumer spending.
- Many highlighted divergence across income groups, with high-income households supporting consumption and lower-income households showing price sensitivity.
- A couple warned that reliance on high-income spending created vulnerability.
- A couple noted continued housing-market weakness despite some stabilisation.
- Many highlighted strong technology and Al-related investment.
- A few said lower business taxes or regulatory easing would support activity.
- Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive.
- A few cited ongoing agricultural headwinds from low crop prices, high input costs and weak foreign demand.
Balance sheet & QT & liquidity
- Almost all said it was appropriate to conclude runoff on 1 December or could support doing so.
- Most participants favored a fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding
Asset prices:
- Several participants highlighted possibility of disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in event of abrupt reassessment of ai- related prospects.
Housing market and real estate commentary
- A couple noted continued housing-market weakness and affordability constraints.
Agricultural commentary
- A few cited headwinds from low crop prices, elevated input costs and weaker foreign demand.
Discussions of Artificial Intelligence
- A few participants suggested that potential recent productivity gains achieved through automation and AI may help businesses support their profit margins and limit the extent to which cost increases are passed on to consumers
- Many participants remarked that structural factors such as investment related to AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies may be contributing to softer labor demand.
- Some participants noted the apparent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, with several suggesting that this pattern might persist over time as advances in AI boost productivity growth while demographic factors constrain labor supply.
- Regarding the business sector, many participants highlighted strong investment in technology, particularly spending related to AI and data centers. Some participants suggested that those investments could boost productivity and thus aggregate supply.
- Broad equity indexes continued to rise over the period, with the largest technology companies performing strongly on market participants’ optimism about artificial intelligence (AI). The manager noted that rising stock prices were consistent with expectations for continued robust growth in earnings.
Read the full Minutes below:
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 19, 2025 Issue 7623 | Independent View of the News |
| Japan’s 20-year yield hit 2.81% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1999. Japan 30-year bond yield jumped 5.5bps to 3.31%. Japan’s 40-year bond hit 3.68%, its highest yield since its inception in 2007. The Nikkei fell 3.2%, its biggest decline since April 9. The yen/$ weakened to 155.38 on Monday but strengthened to 154.82 at 23:25 ET after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued verbal intervention: “I’m seeing extremely one-sided and rapid movements in the currency market. I’m deeply concerned about the situation.” But traders threw the BS flag on Katayama and resumed selling yen. The yen/$ hit 155.73 at 13:10 ET. The yen/$ bottomed at 158.87 on Jan 1, 2025. After vigorous intervention it strengthened to the 2025 high of 139.89 on April 22, 2025. The yen/$ has steadily weakened since the April top but the decline has accelerated since Takaichi’s election. Traders fear new PM Takaichi’s coming budget will be monstrous. The S&P 500 Index 2025 low (4835.04) appeared on April 7. After April stocks steadily rallied and peaked at 6920.34 on October 29, 2025. Near the end of October, beaucoup pundits and ‘experts’ proclaimed that the Grand Seasonal Rally for equities commenced on November 1 and runs through April 30. We opined that this very established seasonal rally often does not appear in November if equities have been in a strong uptrend. We noted that when stocks decline meaningfully in late summer or early fall, late November often marks some type of bottom. It seemed to us that a pattern inversion was possible because of the stock bubble. If stocks bottom in late November or December, the ensuing rally into Q1 often creates big-time tops. Cloudflare outage results in major internet disruptions (until resolved after 8 ET) https://justthenews.com/nation/technology/many-internet-services-disrupted-after-cloudflare-warns-internal-service Fangs got hammered early on Tuesday, which pulled the general stock market sharply lower. Dow plunges 500 points on fears of AI bubble, waning hope for Fed rate cut https://trib.al/eU1WCFz The NY Fang+ Index hit a daily low of 15856.59 (-375.89 0r -2.32%) at 11:02 ET. The manipulation for the European close lifted the index to 16102.46 at 11:48 ET. After a retreat to 15933.06 at 12:32 ET, the NY Fang+ Index rallied to 16137.82 at 12:57 ET. The index traded sideways until a late drop occurred. ESZs rallied modestly during the Nikkei’s first session but tumbled during the 2nd session in concert with the Nikkei. After hitting 6635.75 at 2:06 ET, ESZs rallied to 6685.75 at 3:37 ET. The pro dump appeared: ESZs rolled over and traded sideways. When the US repo market opened at 7 ET, ESZs dipped to 6643.25 at 7:56 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening lifted ESZs to 6679.00 at 9:31 ET. The US pro dump appeared on the NYSE opening. ESZs sank to a daily low of 6594.00 at 11:02 ET. Like the NY Fang+ Index, the manipulation for the European close turned ESZs higher. An A-B-C rally propelled ESZs to 6687.50 at 13:39 ET. ESZs then traded sideways until they fell after 15:00 ET. ESZs tumbled to 6624.75 at the NYSE close. The Turnaround Tuesday Rally lasted 4 hours but aborted during the final hour of NYSE trading. Bitcoin sank to 89,231.50 at 23:47 ET. For the 2nd consecutive day, someone rescued it by aggressively buying it up to 93,763.50 (11:31 ET, in time for the European close). Physical gold and silver rallied moderately while Dec Gold and Silver declined modestly. This appears to be getting the arbitrage inline for the December expiration of gold and silver futures. Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied most of the session on the valuation rotation, and closed down on 0.13 points. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks got hammered. Oil, gasoline, and physical precious metals rallied moderately. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big of a problem is Japan for the markets? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6619.42 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6666.63; 6574.32 BBC: Google boss says trillion-dollar AI investment boom has ‘elements of irrationality’ Every company would be affected if the AI bubble were to burst, the head of Google’s parent firm Alphabet has told the BBC…”I think no company is going to be immune, including us,” he said…”We will have to work through societal disruptions,”… (Young Americans are already frightened by this!) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo @Bannons_WarRoom: MARK MITCHELL: I polled the under-40 voters, and even the ones who voted Trump by a majority would sign on for UBI because of artificial intelligence. Conservative youth aren’t looking at 2026. They’re looking at 2040 when AI has eaten every job. https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/1990809065119731976 BANNON: SNAP isn’t about feeding the poor. It’s corporate welfare for Frito-Lay, Pepsi, and Walmart. The loudest voices defending food stamps aren’t hungry families; they’re the biggest lobbyists in DC. https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/1990810274471768488 Is the labor market in its entrepreneurship era? -Revelio Labs Young workers are skipping the never-ending job hunt and starting their own businessesWith hiring rates and labor demand reaching new lows, entrepreneurship is on the rise. The share of job-switchers moving into entrepreneurship has reached a seven-year high, almost doubling the post-pandemic low.The average age of entrepreneurs has fallen sharply, and high-school graduates show the biggest increase in entrepreneurship rates. Not only job switchers, also new labor market entrants are increasingly choosing entrepreneurship as their first step into the labor market.Tech stands out as the top landing industry, attracting the largest share of straight-from-school entrepreneurs thanks to low capital barriers and strong skill transferability…https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/macro/is-the-labor-market-in-its-entrepreneurship-era/ Financial Stocks Send Warning, Threaten to Tumble Below Support – BBG The KBW Bank Index has fallen 4.5% over the past 5 sessions… S&P 500 2.9% drop over same period @lisaabramowicz1: A stock market correction would cause a huge hit to consumption “given the concentration of spending power among top income households:” RBC’s Mike Reid. “The top 20% of households hold approximately 87% of all directly and indirectly held corporate equities.” https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1990904927401476378 It is no longer true that the stock market is NOT the economy. Top income households’ discretionary spending is most of the economy now. Trickle-down from the government (trillions of spending) and trickle-down from the Fed (asset inflation) are the engines of the US economy now. WSJ: The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life They don’t wait in lines. They don’t jostle with airport crowds or idle unnecessarily in traffic. Instead, an ecosystem of exclusive restaurants, clubs, resorts and other service providers delivers them customized and exquisite experiences as fast as possible. The spaces they inhabit are often private, carefully curated and populated by like-minded and similarly well-heeled peers. The acquisitive power of the very rich is soaring. The net worth held by the top 0.1% of households in the U.S. reached $23.3 trillion in the second quarter this year, from $10.7 trillion a decade earlier, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The amount held by the bottom 50% increased to $4.2 trillion from $900 billion over that period… https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/the-ultrarich-are-spending-a-fortune-to-live-in-extreme-privacy-3f400e55 https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Mint-Bangalore/THE-ULTRARICH-ARE-SPENDING-A-FORTUNE-TO-LIVE-IN-EXTREME-PRIVACY Today – Nvidia reports after the NYSE close: Adj EPS+ 1.26, EPS GAAP 1.2, Rev $55.13B expected. If NVDA reports good results, the rally could be short lived because AI stocks are being liquidated. Someone or more will use any rally to “feed the fishes.” Stocks continue to suffer technical damage; the onus is on bulls now. Traders will watch Fangs to ascertain the trend. Late trading could be impacted by rumors or inside info on Nvidia’s results. Remember, NVDA CEO Huang habitually issues over-the-top AI hype. Trading NVDA after results will be treacherous because Nvidia closed (181.36, -5.24), just 2 handles above its 100-DMA (179.5155). NVDA has not closed below its 100-DMA since May. Will someone save NVDA if its falls below its 100-DMA? If not, 162-164 is the next major support. PS – NVDA has tanked 4.63% this week. Usually, it rallies sharply into results. Does someone know something? ESAs are -5.25; NQZs are -42.00; Dec AU is -3.90; and USZs are +2/32 at 20:17 ET. Fed Speakers: Gov Miran 10:00 ET, Richmond Pres Barkin 12:45 ET; NY Pres Williams 14 ET. Expected economic data: Nov NAHB Housing Market Index 37; Aug Factory Orders 1.4%, Ex-Trans 0.3%; Aug Durable Goods Orders 2.9%, Ex-Trans 0.4%, Non-def Ex-Air 0.6%; FOMC Minutes 14 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6710; 100-day MA: 6537; 150-day MA: 6294; 200-day MA: 6155 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,641; 100-day MA: 45,680; 150-day MA: 44,370; 200-day MA: 43,875 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6617.32 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5687.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6789.29 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6668.34 triggers a buy signal The US House voted to pass bill to force the release of the Epstein Files. The House vote was 423 yea, 1 nay, and 9 non votes. The Senate by unanimous consent passed the bill. It’s on Trump’s desk to sign. Many of the ultrarich are liberals that force the masses to live by policies of the pols they fund while exempting themselves from the negative consequences of those policies. This is the stuff of revolutions! GOP @RepLuna: Bill and Hillary Clinton are refusing to appear before House Oversight for their depositions re: Jeffrey Epstein. Notice how House Democrats suddenly have nothing to say about it. @BreannaMorello: Congressman Hakeem Jeffries solicited money from pedo Jeffrey Epstein in 2013. https://x.com/BreannaMorello/status/1990872974031786053 @1776General_: Trump says the U.S. needs H-1B immigrants to make computer chips and “train our people.” Trump forgot we invented the chips and trained other countries to build them. We aren’t buying it. https://t.co/VYTh9ot8nN Children’s AI toy gave advice on sex and where to find knives Researchers found it suggested explicit concepts related to sexuality and even speculated on the location of knives in a home… OpenAI has severed its access to the AI model used in the toy… https://www.disclose.tv/id/c3aqiwk7x4/ @mrddmia: The Big Tech oligarchs (AND TRUMP) are demanding AI amnesty so state and local governments cannot, for example, prevent the sale of Pedo Bears to kids. After getting crushed 99-1, Big Tech is back at it. They’re once again attempting to sneak into must-pass legislation their 10 years of AI amnesty. They want license to steal and profit from copyright owners across America. “We must steal like China to compete against China,” they pretend… Tell Congress: Ensure the 10-Year AI Moratorium Stays Out of the NDAA Big Tech monopolists like Amazon, Apple, Google, and Meta already dominate the digital landscape and manipulate the flow of information. Congress wants to give them a blank check to deploy AI without guardrails, no matter the consequences to American workers, children, creators, or free speech… https://article3project.quorum.us/campaign/AI-Moratorium-NDAA/ VP Vance is the favorite to succeed Trump as GOP Presidential Nominee and POTUS. However, with Trump’s falling approval ratings due to dissatisfaction among MAGA, MAHA, and America First factions, Florida Governor DeSantis sees an opening to become the GOP 2028 POTUS nominee. Vance must strenuously back and make excuses for Trump, including his unpopular decisions & actions. DeSantis slammed immigration on Monday by inferring there are holes in Trump’s immigration policies. The Florida governor is also against granting AI immunity to big tech. DJT strenuously endorses it! DeSantis: “Illegal immigration is bad. Legal immigration, no matter what, is good? Wait a minute. Bringing 10 million people from Somalia and dumping them into Georgia is good just because it’s legal? I think we have to think critically about what we’re doing with immigration policy. Is it benefiting the American people? Is it helping to promote a strong American culture? We should never bring people into this country who hate America. Don’t do what Europe did. Europe pursued mass migration, it was legal, it was intentional, and it’s turned out to be disastrous.” https://notthebee.com/article/desantis-takes-on-legal-immigration-is-it-good-for-us-to-bring-10m-somalians-dump-em-in-georgia @TheBrancaShow: Ron DeSantis is going to steal the 2028 GOP nomination… from… JD Vance and Marco Rubio, by correctly pointing out that mass migration from low-trust third-world cultures into the US, whether technically legal or not, is not in the interests of America or our citizens. @Peoples_Pundit: Republicans identify as America First because of the very same younger voters now jumping ship. Want to keep them, then use the power they entrusted to you to make their lives better. It’s not hard. There are a lot of policies to champion. I’m just not in a sharing mood. https://t.co/GrGCTuNCSW DeSantis Swivels Hard in His 2028 Pitch DeSantis will have to play the delicate game of distinguishing himself from the president’s assumed heir while also supporting the president. He will have to convince voters that it’s not DeSantis vs. Trump—which killed him in the last election—but DeSantis vs. Vance… It’s clear that DeSantis wants to establish himself as the staunchest immigration hawk among leading Republicans. It’s no longer enough to condemn illegal immigration to make a Republican stand out. He has to call for restricting legal immigration as well. DeSantis makes his mark in this regard… DeSantis has decided to lead the charge against H-1B visas. Trump recently fumbled on this issue in his disastrous Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham where he appeared to endorse the widely-criticized visa… But it’s with legal immigration that DeSantis wants to distinguish himself from Vance. Depending on what the administration does, DeSantis could exploit discontent with the administration not going far enough… DeSantis is changing tack for 2028 by adopting anti-tech populism. He now rails against the industry’s alleged “transhumanism” and wants AI heavily regulated. He warns about the apparent dangers of data centers and how they will upset the state’s power grid… DeSantis is one of the leaders in the crusade against property taxes… Even with a new agenda, the governor will still lack charisma and be the same awkward guy interacting with the crowds… https://www.theamericanconservative.com/desantis-prepares-his-2028-pitch/ DeSantis knows that if Trump’s policies boost the US in the coming three years and DJT’s popularity jumps higher, Vance will easily win the GOP Presidential Nomination. But if DJT continues to renege on campaign promises and ignore, let alone work against economic populism, Vance cannot win. Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster): Populism is America’s political football. Only one person currently has the power to deliver, however. @nytimes: A federal judge said that the case against James Comey, the former FBI director, could be in serious trouble because of apparent misconduct by the Justice Department’s inexperienced prosecutor picked by President Trump to handle the matter. https://nyti.ms/47MpTwy (The Appeals Court already stayed this egregiously bad political decision.) @HansMahn>https://trib.al/Yte0x57 Everyday, in every way, evidence of the mental health and common-sense crisis in the US appears. Former Treasury Secretary (for Clinton, and ex-Harvard Pres) Larry Summers announces step back from public life over Epstein ties https://t.co/XpFA581mlO @Cjpearson: Democrat members of Congress– including Senators Elissa Slotkin and Mark Kelly– just released a video encouraging members of the military to defy orders from President Trump. The party of “NO KINGS” is now encouraging a military coup. (In years past, top Dems & the MSM could exile the people that did this. But DJT is so evil that everything to usurp or fell him is acceptable! We are past ‘fail safe.’ There is no easy resolution now.) https://x.com/Cjpearson/status/1990840938076283217 Power stripped from Education Department in latest Trump administration move to dismantle it The Department of Education was established in 1979 under the Carter administration The Department of Education announced six interagency agreements (IAAs) Tuesday with the Department of Labor, the Department of Health and Human Services, the State Department and the Department of the Interior to co-manage or take a growing role in managing certain offices and programs… One agreement includes the Department of Labor establishing an elementary and secondary education partnership to “empower parents and states, promote innovation, and deliver program improvements,” according to a press release on the announcement… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/power-stripped-from-education-department-latest-trump-administration-move-dismantle @WellsJorda89710: NYC Socialist Zohran Mamdani just endorsed his hand-picked replacement for the New York State Assembly… and it’s WILD. Meet Aber Kawa: – Moved to the U.S. literally LAST YEAR – Holds a master’s degree in “Islamic Liberation Theology” – Hardcore Palestinian activist https://x.com/WellsJorda89710/status/1990581639584354552 @mattvanswol: The Charlotte NC school officials confirm that 2 elementary schools saw only 35% of their ENTIRE STUDENT BODY show up for school on Monday. 65% of ALL their students did not show up for school on Monday, due to immigration enforcement. @Dapper_Det: A suspect with 22 prior arrests, including arson, is reportedly in custody for setting a woman on fire aboard a Chicago train… another Gov Pritzker “SAFE-T Act” success story. @CWBChicago: A suspect is in custody for setting a woman on fire on the Blue Line last night, arrested midday in the Loop He’s wearing an ankle monitor for an aggravated battery case in which a judge REFUSED to keep him in jail. He has a history of arson. @WGNMorningNews: Chicago leaders and community members are calling for accountability after a viral video captured a mother and her children being attacked by students as they walked home from school yesterday. FULL STORY: https://tinyurl.com/35mhsc57 DJT spent another day hosting and hailing a foreign leader (Saudi boss Prince Mohammed Bin Salman). Social media remarks were not kind to the schmoozing luxury real estate developer turned POTUS. WSJ: Trump Says Saudi Leader Knew Nothing of Journalist Murder, Rejecting CIA Assessment President says Jamal Khashoggi was ’extremely controversial’ figure, as leaders announce $1 trillion worth of deals (It was not just a murder, it was a sickening butchering per the CIA) @ShelbyTalcott: Attendees spotted at tonight’s White House dinner event for the Saudi crown prince include Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Speaker Johnson, Howard Lutnick, Bret Baier, Don Jr, Cristiano Ronaldo, and more… Trump approval falls to lowest of his term over prices and Epstein files, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (But it’s a tad higher than Bush II and Obama at same point in 2nd term.) http://reut.rs/3XzNmLd | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
the Epstein affair
(zerohedge)
Clintons Dodge Epstein Depositions As Trump Demands Total File Release
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Bill and Hillary Clinton have officially refused to comply with House Oversight Committee subpoenas ordering them to sit for depositions about their ties to financier to the elite and convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) broke the news on Monday, stating “Bill and Hillary Clinton are refusing to appear before House Oversight for their depositions regarding Jeffrey Epstein. Notice how House Democrats suddenly have nothing to say about it.”
The subpoenas, issued in August by Chairman James Comer (R-KY), set Hillary’s deposition for October 9 and Bill’s for October 14. After their attorneys requested delays, the Clintons have now stonewalled entirely.
Comer has long flagged Bill Clinton as a “prime suspect,” citing more than 20 flights on the Lolita Express, multiple trips to Epstein’s island, and at least 17 visits by Epstein to the Clinton White House.
The Clintons’ defiance stands in stark contrast to President Trump’s aggressive push for total transparency. As we highlighted yesterday, Trump labeled the entire Epstein controversy a “Democrat Hoax” designed to smear Republicans and demanded the immediate release of every file:
“House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide, and it’s time to move on from this Democrat Hoax perpetrated by Radical Left Lunatics in order to deflect from the Great Success of the Republican Party,” Trump noted.
Trump doubled down, insisting the files be released but warning they must not overshadow Republican victories, stating “What I just don’t want is for Epstein to detract from the great success of the Republican Party… It’s a Democrat hoax.”
With House Republicans now preparing contempt proceedings and a floor vote looming on full Epstein file declassification, the Clintons’ refusal to testify only intensifies the spotlight on decades of unanswered questions.
The message from both Trump and Comer is clear: no more hiding.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
GREG HUNTER…
SEE YOU TOMORROW
H
harveyorganblog.com 
