access market
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XGE: COMEX
323 C HSBC 66
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 33
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 807
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 724
709 C BARCLAYS 11
905 C ADM 5
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 724/823
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2025: 823 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 82,300 OZ or 2.559 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,916 contracts for 1,191.600 OR 37.063 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.155 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3897 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 19.485 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR NOV: 11.575 MILLION OZ
WEDNESDAY: 1.475 MILLION OZ
THURSDAY: 0.250 MILLION OZ
FRIDAY: AN EFP TRANSFER OF 20,000 OZ AND THIS WILL BE SUBTRACTED FROM OUR PREVIOUS TOTAL
MONDAY: ZERO GAIN.
TUESDAY: A SMALL 10,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON
THEN ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 8.155 MILLION OZ- 0.03 MILLION EFP TRANSFER.
EQUALS
19.485 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER.
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 30.705 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
AND NOW NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING REDUCES TO 19.485 MILLION OZ/
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.723 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 19.8317 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3996 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.5186 TONNES OF GOLD.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, NOV CONTRACT AT 38.5186 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 118.60 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 5294 CONTRACTS OI TO 148,942 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 200 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF5294 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 5094 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.43 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 25.470 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.43
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.04 POINTS OR 0.87%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 178.05 PTS OR 0.69%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 33.04 PTS OR 0.07% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0856/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0846/ Oil UP TO 58.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.10 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0856 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0846:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.87 POINTS OR 0.05%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 496.48 PTS OR 1.97%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.34%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1071/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1079/ Oil UP TO 57.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.21 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1071 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1079:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED SIZED 28,079 CONTRACTS TO 442,270 OI DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2400). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY.. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WERE WIPED OUT FROM THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY MOVING TO THE LONG SIDE AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED LAST NIGHT AT 823 NOTICES FOR 82,300 OZ (2.559 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS TOOK EVERYTHING THEY COULD ON OFFER. THE FRBY HAS NOW ENGINEERED ANOTHER SMALL RAID EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SPECS WENT TO THE SHORT SIDE AND THEY WILL BE RINSED IN SHORT ORDER!!
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 25,679 CONTRACTS (OR 79L87 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR NIL OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES:
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: SO FAR ONE ISSUANCE:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF 450 CONTRACTS FOR 45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES.
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 131.6996 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES)
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 10TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!…..(DEC THROUGH NOV//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 10 MONTHS ISSUANCE 131.6996 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW NOVEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 25,679 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 2.0% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH OCT/ NOVEMBER CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 4036 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES IN NOVEMBER WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE WE WILL NOW SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY YESTERDAY.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS: SEPT THROUGH NOVEMBER;
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE FINISHING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS GOADED OUR SPECULATORS TO CONTINUE ONTO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE…THE RAIDS THROUGHT THIS WEEK WERE FREQUENT BUT FAILED TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE TO THE PRICE WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHING OCT 31 AS WE NOW ENTER OUR MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH EARLY MONTH FAILED RAID ATTEMPTS. SO THEY NOW ISSUED THESE MEGA T.A.S. CONTRACTS AND THAT ALWAYS SIGNALS MAJOR RAIDS WHICH ARRIVED ON OUR DOORSTEP EARLY NOV. MONTH AND CARRIED ON IN FULL FORCE TO THIS DAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 8 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. AND NOW NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.723 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 19.6545 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.5186 TONNES
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS, MAYBE I AM WRONG. WE MUST WAIT TO SEE THE DATA FROM BIS SWAPS FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO SEE IF THEY WILL BEGIN TO COVER!!
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
E.G. NOVEMBER: A HUGE INITIAL 15.651 TONNES STANDING IN AN OFF MONTH!! THIS IS HUGE!!!//WITH QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW STANDING FOR GOLD NOW AT 38.5186 TONNES
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/NOV//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2400 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2400 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2400 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2400 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS//MONDAY + GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION AND MASSIVE LIQUIDATION LATE THURSDAY /EARLY FRIDAY/
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW BEGUN AS IT IS IN FULL FORCE THESE PAST TWO DAYS:COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY WAS YESTERDAY, //LONDON OTC// LBMA// OPTION EXPIRES NOV 28!!
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//NOV
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT// TUESDAY MORNING WAS A MUCH LARGER SIZED THAN NORMAL 4036 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP MONDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 1.36996 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY!
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 11 MONTHS OF 2025:
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
AND NOW NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.723 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 19.8317 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 1.3966 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.5186 TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING NOVEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $18.55/ /) AND WERE QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF HUGE NUMBERS OF SPECULATOR SHORTS WHO TRIED TO COVER WITH THE PRICE RISE AS CENTRAL BANKS (FRBNY + OTHER CENTRAL BANKS) TOOK THE LONG SIDE. WE DID HAVE A STRONG LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,079 CONTRACTS WITH THE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION.. BUT AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY AND WE DID HAVE CONTINUATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION// COMEX TRADING//.. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK, THE BANKER (FRBNY) WENT TO THE LONG SIDE ALONG WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS AND SPECS LIQUIDATED ON THE SHORT SIDE SIDE. THE SPECS WERE QUITE NICELY RINSED BY THE FRBNY.
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT AND NOVEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1.713 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 19.8317 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.3966 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.5186 ONNES OF GOLD.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.55
WE HAD A HUGE 14,600 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
NOV 25
NOV CONTRACT MONTH
CME DID NOT PROVIDE INVENTORY CHANGES TONIGHT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entry i) One entry: out of Malca: 2515.157 oz total withdrawal 2515.157 or 0.07 tonnnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 823 notice(s) 82,300 OZ 2.558 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 18 contracts 1800 OZ 0.0559 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 11,916 notices 1,191,600 0z 37.063 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
1 entry
i) One entry:
out of Malca: 2515.157 oz
total withdrawal 2515.157
or 0.07 tonnnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 3 all dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 97.800 oz
b) Brinks 864.689 oz
c) Manfra 288.867 oz
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER:
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV STANDS AT 841 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 379 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 175 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY. SO WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 554 CONTRACTS FOR 55400 OZ OF GOLD (1.723 TONNES).
DECEMBER AGAIN LOST A MUCH SMALLER THAN EXPECTED CONTRACTS TOTALLING 62,401 TO 91,638 CONTRACTS . DECEMBER IS THE NEW FRONT MONTH AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A MEGA MEGA DILLY MONTH STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR GOLD!! WE HAVE 2 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: WEDNESDAY AND THEN FIRST DAY NOTICE FRIDAY NOV 28.
JANUARY GAINED 403 CONTRACTS UP TO 2161
We had 823 contracts filed for today representing 82,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 823 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 714 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,915 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 841 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (823 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,193,400 OZ OR 37.119 Tonnes of gold to which we add our first issuance of exchange for risk for 1.3996 tonnes//new standing advances to 38.5180 tonnes.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,916x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (841 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (823)x 100 oz) which equals 1,193,400OZ OR 37.119 TONNES to which we add our 1.3996 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total of gold standing in November is 38.5186 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV..: 38.5186 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER
volume MONDAY confirmed 348,958 contracts EXCELLENT
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,957,622.110 oz 60.89 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,571,142.558 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,274,299.950 or 598.50 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,296,842.608 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,316,677 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
538.62 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE NOV. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
NOV 25 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of ASAHI 593.289.900 OZ ii) Out of Delaware 20,243.969 oz iii) Out of Brinks 597,914.440 oz iv) Out of JPMorgan: 593,903.00000 oz ??? total withdrawal 1,805,350.909 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | one entry i) Into HSBC: 604,099.630 oz total deposit 604,099.630 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 31 CONTRACT(S) ( 155,000 OZ 0.070 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 contracts (0.0MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3897 Contracts (19.485 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1entries
one entry
i) Into HSBC: 604,099.630 oz
total deposit 604,099.630 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of ASAHI 593.289.900 OZ
ii) Out of Delaware 20,243.969 oz
iii) Out of Brinks 597,914.440 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan: 593,903.00000 oz ???
total withdrawal 1,805,350.909 oz
adjustments: 2 dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 491,081.01
Delaware 1,017,135.07 oz
comex is in turmoil
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 150.238 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 459.237 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOVEMBER /2025 OI: 31 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 16 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 14 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ AS THEY EXERCISED AN EXP CONTRACT AND TOO DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON
DECEMBER LOST 14,101 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 28,643. THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH FOR SILVER DELIVERIES AND WE WILL HAVE A STRONG STANDING FOR OUR SILVER METAL PROBABLY CLOSE TO 60 MILLION OZ!!
JANUARY GAINED 457 CONTRACTS UP TO 3152 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 or 0.155 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 95,293 huge//
AND NOW NOVEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3893 X5,000 oz = 19.485MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (31) AND the number of notices served upon today (31 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOVEMBER 2025 contract month: (3897) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(31) minus number of notices served upon today (31)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the NOV.contract month equating to 19.485 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 19.485million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 151.627 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 199.031/459.031million. 43.35%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1040.86 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 498.716 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
Peter Schiff: Bubbles Pop Everywhere
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 02:45 PM
On Wednesday’s episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter returns to his show to walk listeners through what he sees as multiple asset bubbles and why those bubbles matter beyond headline market moves. He calls out the AI stock mania, a fragile housing market propped up by policy, and the crypto circus — all potential bubbles inflated by easy money.
He opens by framing the broader problem: we don’t just have one overheating market, we have many, and policy choices make their unwinding more dangerous:
The bigger question is not just whether or not this is a precursor for other bubbles to pop because there are a lot of bubbles. We have a bubble in AI stocks and I’ll talk about that too. On this podcast, we got Nvidia earnings out after the close today, but we have the AI bubble. There’s a bubble in housing, which, you know, the government is really trying to prevent from deflating, which of course they need to allow it to deflate, but they’re afraid of what might happen.
Peter is careful to separate hype from technological promise — he believes AI could genuinely reshape productivity and living standards — but warns that enthusiasm is fueling speculative excess rather than sober investment:
When I talk about an AI bubble, I am not saying that there isn’t potential in artificial intelligence. In fact, I think there’s tremendous potential. I think there’s probably more potential there than in anything I’ve seen, which would include the internet, which had a lot of potential. I think that AI could be the most transformative invention as far as lifting the standard of living of all of humanity.
Shifting from tech to crypto, Peter points to recent price action as evidence that much of the Bitcoin story is built on air — a sharp drawdown is “a pretty big bear market in nothing,” and he prefers measuring crypto’s value relative to gold rather than dollars:
Earlier this afternoon, Bitcoin traded below 88,500. Now, of course, that’s still a ridiculously high price to pay for nothing, but it’s about 30% below what you had to pay for nothing a couple of months ago. All right. So that is a pretty big bear market in nothing; Bitcoin down 30%. In terms of gold, which again is a better way to measure the price of Bitcoin, because after all Bitcoin is marketed as being digital gold, as being an alternative to gold that is going to replace gold because it’s better than gold.
Ironically, Peter says, the one real constructive outcome from the crypto craze could be greater utility for actual money: tokenized gold. If blockchain tech makes gold more liquid and transferable, that can strengthen gold’s role rather than replace it — because tokens are only as meaningful as the asset backing them:
Ironically, the one thing that might come out of the whole crypto bubble is tokenized gold. Gold may be the only real winner. Rather than killing gold, blockchain may have just given it a new lease on life by making gold even more efficient than it’s ever been as a means of exchange, making it more liquid, making it more divisible, making it more portable. All the characteristics that people think Bitcoin has that are better than gold are worthless without the underlying value of gold.
Finally, Peter reads the Fed’s recent comments as dangerously complacent. He notes that members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) appeared to downplay inflation risks tied to tariffs, suggesting any price increases from trade barriers may be temporary — even as tariff policy changes are being used politically to try to cool prices:
I thought what was significant, and it should have produced a bigger reaction, but it did not, was that the FOMC members seem to believe that the inflation threat that they thought may have come from tariffs isn’t there. And to the extent that prices are higher, that it’s not, you know, a permanent thing, that it’s like a one and done situation. And of course, Trump has been rolling back more tariffs recently, a lot of items.
END
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
Ignored Red Repo Signals = More Obvious Golden Tailwinds
Monday, Nov 24, 2025 – 03:45 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,
Markets are many things, but in simplest terms, they are a paradox.
From the Complex…
By this, I mean they are incredibly and intentionally complex, which makes them a kind of exclusive environment managed, allegedly at least, by cadres of well-versed experts (?) trained in, and comfortable with, complexity.
The extraordinarily complex mechanics, for example, of layered derivative trades or currency and rate swaps, the hedging of futures contracts on the New York COMEX or the maze-like liquidity and collateral movements in repo and reverse repo facilities are indeed settings of just mind-numbing complexity.
…To the Simple
But herein lies the paradox, for despite such deliberate and gated complexity, these markets—from the most basic ETF purchase to the most confusing asset-backed securities—operate upon one extraordinarily simple force, namely: Liquidity.
Or stated even more simply, everything hinges upon one question: Is there enough cash to keep these systems afloat?
And even if you have never had the time to study every market correction from the first Persian trading huts or Roman currency collapses to the great crashes of 18th-century France, 19th-century America or even the more recent ghosts of 2008, the key takeaway is equally simple: Every market crisis is at heart a liquidity crisis.
In short: Liquidity matters.
Engines Need Oil, Markets Need Cash
Liquidity—or cash flows—are like the oil levels in a basic engine, and anyone who has ever owned or driven a car knows it’s never a good thing when the dashboard signals a glowing, red low-oil warning.
Unless more oil is added soon, the warning phase progresses quickly to a stalled car phase.
What many investors may not realize is that these otherwise immortal risk asset markets are riddled with “low-oil warnings” which few are discussing, but which gold is recognizing.
Warning Lights in the Repo Market: Boring but Important
Take the current “Standard Repo Facility”—a topic so boring and complex that it’s easy to both ignore and misunderstand.
In simplest terms, the repo market is where big banks (“primary dealers”) go to get overnight loans (i.e., “liquidity”) from each other to keep their bank engines humming along.
It is here where they execute what are called “repurchase agreements”—i.e. where Party A asks for cash from Party B by offering Party B overnight collateral in the form of “safe” USTs.
The next day, Party A pays back the loan and buys back its collateral at a slightly higher price/rate than the Fed Funds Rate set by the FED (the FFR), otherwise known as the “repo rate.”
Such repo transactions keep the wheels of banking, money market yields and even hedge fund leverage tools comfortably “greased” and chugging along smoothly so long as the FFR and repo rates are aligned, affordable and hence: “Liquid.”
But when the repo rates begin to climb noticeably above the allegedly calming Fed Funds Rate, this is a dashboard warning that trust among the counterparties’ collateral is falling and that future liquidity is stalling.
Or, and stated more simply: Rising repo rates signal tightening liquidity, which for bankers is like the appearance of a rising shark fin for a weekend ocean swimmer.
Nervous “Experts” …
Recently, a bunch of market “swimmers” (i.e. primary dealers and their representatives) met at the home of the New York Fed in a very nervous mood and behind closed doors.
Why?
Because they are seeing shark fins circling and low-oil signals flashing from their dashboards.
The repo rates are decoupling from (rising above) the FFR, which means the cost of borrowing between insiders is getting painful.
This also means liquidity is drying and the engine of US and global markets (as literally everything and every asset is impacted by expensive liquidity) is slowly beginning to smoke, rattle and choke.
If repo rates go from rising to dangerously spiking, as they did in September of 2019, the engine stalls altogether, and the repair bill (i.e., Fed-injected liquidity) becomes extraordinary.
Prepare the Firehose
In other words, this means rapidly expanding liquidity measures from the Fed’s “emergency funding” source (aka: “reverse repo facility”), which is nothing more than QE (money printing) by another false title.
What’s equally creepy, and equally off the radar of most investors and coopted financial media sources, is that even before these nervous bankers met in New York, the Fed had already injected $125B of short-term funding operations to keep these repo rates “controlled,” but with little success.
Why?
Because after 3 years of Powell desperately trying to reduce the Fed’s embarrassingly fat balance sheet via QT while its commercial banking nieces and nephews on Wall Street were simultaneously reducing their own balance sheets to meet regulatory measures, liquidity was already quietly drying up even before the engine warning lights finally went red in the repo market.
The Past is Prologue
So, what does this mean going forward for markets in general or gold in particular?
By now, it should be no surprise to any that the Fed, which is a private bank owned by other commercial banks as part of a legalized cabal that is little more than a dishonest, unelected and insider trade, will do “whatever it takes” to keep themselves alive and “liquid.”
This means the Fed will inevitably, and once again, face an inflection point in which more bazooka/firehose money will flow into this “system.”
In short, “liquidity,” ultimately created from thin air, will save a now entrenched and parasitic system at the expense of the inherent purchasing power of the USD in general and the paper wealth of its citizens in particular, in this hidden backdrop of serfs and lords otherwise masquerading as free market capitalism.
The Future is Simple
As for gold, it may not be as human as our central bankers and primary dealers, but it is a heck of a lot more honest.
Its price moves today (which are increasingly less inhibited by the tapped-out COMEX and LBMA banks who lack the free-float to legally price fix precious metals) are telling us what our leadership and banks cannot, namely: Paper money is being debased at alarming levels to keep liquidity flowing into a debt-draped and broken system.
Throughout history, gold has always been nature’s honest monetary reaction to fiat currencies’ “human, all too human” debasement sins.
The market knows that more QE and QE-like liquidity is coming, which means a USD, which has already lost more than 99% of its purchasing power when measured against gold, will continue to lose its “punch” in the same way a glass of wine loses its flavor when buckets of added water dilute its vintage.
Gold, whose bull market is just beginning in such a backdrop, will continue its secular and historical rise, because fiat currencies will continue their secular, political, human and oh-so historically familiar fall.
In short, and despite pages, centuries and layers of complexity, the case for gold is ultimately as simple as that.
END
ALASDAIR MCLEOD
The bitcoin crisis
Bitcoin’s problems could be just starting. Having rapidly fallen 30% from its highs, leveraged bulls could become forced sellers, with wider implications for markets and gold.
| Alasdair MacleodNov 25∙Paid |
Introduction
The concept behind bitcoin was that its quantity would become progressively harder to mine as it approached its hard stop of 21,000,000. It was promoted as a future private sector money compared with the endless expansion of government currency. Valued in continually debasing government currency, bitcoin’s value would increase and increase.
It succeeded in alerting generally complacent investors to the issue of currency debasement. And here was a new technology which allowed individuals to hedge against it. It seemed to hold greater promise than gold, which already had significant aboveground stocks and was frankly old hat not going anywhere at the time and whose supply would always expand. Surely, the argument went that a new technocratic solution could do better.
Enthusiasts promoted the idea that as a world currency you could compare bitcoin with the global fiat money supply. It offered the prospects of soaring towards infinity — and from time to time it appeared to be on its way. But in the last month the dream has become severely tested, with its dollar value crashing up to 30%.
But as the chart above shows, in real terms as opposed to arithmetic it appears to have lost momentum in successive bullish phases and appears likely to be heading for further declines, potentially testing a six-year uptrend currently below $50,000. Given that there are significant leveraged positions in bitcoin, a decline to this level could be swift as some major holders are foreclosed on by their lenders.
Chief among these is Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (MSTR), whose further buying into the bitcoin crash was to no effect. According to Coinbase, MSTR appears to have now stopped buying, suggesting that it has run out of firepower.
Furthermore, MSTR is likely to be removed from major benchmarks leading to automated selling by tracker funds. Coinbase estimates that this could lead to further automated sales of $2.8bn when Morgan Stanley Capital International (a major compiler of international indices) issues its ruling on 15 January, and a further $8.8bn if other index compilers follow suit.
As a leveraged play on bitcoin MSTR’s shares have already declined by 70% from their peak. The question arises as to whether the market disruption faced by MSTR and similar leveraged vehicles can be contained without undermining bitcoin itself. It seems highly unlikely.
Currently, bitcoin is capitalised at about $1.5 trillion, and its destabilisation is bound to have an impact elsewhere. In recent years it has correlated neatly with NASDAQ, as the chart below indicates — until now:
The point behind this correlation is that holders of bitcoin are technology investors generally. And if bitcoin collapses as speculative leverage is unwound, then tech stocks will be undermined as well.
Could this be chaos theory’s butterfly in the jungle whose flapping wings become magnified by a domino effect into a financial hurricane on Wall Street? We know that there’s a massive financial credit bubble waiting to implode and that momentum stocks such as the Magnificent 7 are vulnerable.
What’s particularly striking is that bitcoin’s negative performance comes at a time when previously unfashionable gold is now outperforming bitcoin. To put it in perspective, global portfolio exposure to gold is estimated by the World Gold Council at only $500 billion, one-third of bitcoin’s capitalisation. Bitcoin’s collapse will undoubtedly leave investors without the protection from debasing fiat currencies that they originally sought.
As stackers in gold might muse, it’s an ill wind that brings benefits. Bulls of bitcoin hiding from currency debasement will have lost it and can only turn to tried and tested protection, which is gold.
3.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer//GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /249 AND TODAY;S 250
DAVE KRANZLER
ASIA RESULTS; TUESDAY NOV 25
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.04 POINTS OR 0.87%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 178.05 PTS OR 0.69%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 33.04 PTS OR 0.07% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0856/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0846/ Oil UP TO 58.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.10 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0856 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0846:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0856
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0846
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 178.05 PTS OR 0.69%
2. Nikkei closed HOLIDAY
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.98 – EURO RISES TO 1.1577 UP 17 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.806 // UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.27…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.335 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWERER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.6882/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.440 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.194
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.3188
3j Gold at $4133.00 Silver at: 51.18 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 33/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.76
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.27 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.806% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.360 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8090 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9347 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.026 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.674 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.485 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.44 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.520 DOWN 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.334 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.1743 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.749 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
a New York OPENING REPORT
Stock Rally Falters As Nvidia-Google AI Rivalry Intensifies
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 08:55 AM
US futures are flat, having rebounded from session lows, even as Nvidia shares fell 3.8% in premarket trading as investors assess the threat of increased competition after a report that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s TPU-based AI chips (see “The Google TPU: The Chip Made For The AI Inference Era“); Alphabet shares climb 3.2% in premarket. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures are unchanged after posting the biggest daily gain since Oct 13, while Nasdaq 100 contracts drop 0.1%. The prospect of a market shake-up rippled across other tech companies. AMD slipped more than 3%, while Japan’s SoftBank Group shares tumbled 10% on concern that Alphabet’s Gemini model could boost competition for OpenAI, a key SoftBank investment. Treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields down 1bp to 4.01%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% while the yen leads gains against the greenback, rising 0.4%. The pound adds 0.2% ahead of the budget on Wednesday. WTI crude futures fall 0.3% to $58.70 a barrel. Spot gold is flat near $4,134/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to near $87,000. Today’s econ data includes ADP weekly employment estimate (8:15am), September retail sales and PPI (8:30am), September FHFA house price index, 3Q house price purchase index and September S&P Cotality home prices (9am), August business inventories, November Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November consumer confidence, and October pending home sales (10am) and November Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 4% as the search giant inches closer to a market value of $4 trillion. Nvidia (NVDA) drops 3.6% on a report that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, suggesting the internet search leader is making headway in efforts to rival the industry’s bestselling AI accelerator (Tesla -0.1%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.6%, Microsoft -0.8%, Apple -0.7%)
- Alibaba Group ADRs (BABA) gains 2% after the company posted better-than-projected growth in its pivotal cloud business, highlighting the enormous demand for computing during China’s AI boom.
- Amentum Holdings (AMTM) rises 11% after the IT services firm posted fiscal fourth-quarter pro forma revenue that grew 10% from the year-earlier period and beat estimates.
- Brinker International (EAT) rises 2% after Citi analyst Jon Tower upgraded the operator of Chili’s and Maggiano’s restaurant chains to buy.
- Burlington Stores (BURL) falls 5% after the off-price retailer’s comparable sales for the third quarter fell short of the consensus estimate. Burlington’s fourth-quarter and full-year forecasts for the metric are also underwhelming compared with the Street projections. .
- Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) drops 8% after posting quarterly results.
- Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 11% after the energy storage company forecast 2026 total revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, and announced more data center deals in the pipeline.
- Keysight Technologies (KEYS) rises 14% after the measurement instruments company gave a first-quarter forecast that was stronger than expected. It also reported positive fourth-quarter results. .
- Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) climbs 25% after raising its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter, a sign that Chief Executive Officer Michael Bender is helping to stabilize performance at the struggling retailer
- Sandisk (SNDK) climbs 3% after the computer hardware and storage company is selected to replace Interpublic Group of Companies in the S&P 500.
- Select Medical Holdings (SEM) jumps 10% after the operator of health-care facilities said it received a take-private proposal from Executive Chairman Robert A. Ortenzio to acquire all of the company’s outstanding shares.
- Spotify (SPOT) climbs 2% after the Financial Times reported that the company is preparing to raise US subscription prices in the first quarter of next year.
- Symbotic (SYM) rises 15% after the company gave first-quarter revenue forecast that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Zoom Communications (ZM) gains 5% after the video communications software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations. It also raised its full-year forecast.
In corporate news, Boeing is gaining ground in a “war against defects” at its 737 jet plant outside Seattle. Media mogul David Geffen is said set to reap more than $500 million in profit from the expected sale of Warner Bros. Discovery. Private equity firm PAG has made a big contrarian bet on China. Spotify is getting ready to increase subscription prices in the US in the first quarter of 2026, the FT reported.
Some caution is returning to markets after indexes posted big gains on Monday. AI competition is heating up, with Nvidia dropping in premarket trading on a report that Meta is in talks to use Google’s AI chips. Escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and Europe are also dampening the mood. The AI competition concerns and geopolitical tensions put a brake on the two-day bounce-back that was driven by rising Fed cut bets.
A report that Meta Platforms is in talks to use AI chips from Alphabet’s Google spurred investors to rethink bets on related companies, prompting volatile moves for tech stocks in Asia. Alphabet shares were up about 3% premarket. An agreement could see Meta use Google chips, known as TPUs, in data centers in 2027, The Information reported, which could help establish TPUs as an alternative to Nvidia chips.
“Nvidia is the biggest position in my portfolio and I am not worried at all by a 3% dip,” said Fares Hendi, global fund manager at Prevoir Asset Management in Paris. “It’s healthy that in a functioning market economy Google goes into this market, it just shows its vast potential.”
In Japan, shares of tech giant SoftBank tumbled, hitting a 2 1/2-month low and down 40% from their record high just 3 weeks ago, on worries that the latest Gemini AI model from Alphabet may intensify competition for OpenAI — the Japanese conglomerate’s key investment. The stock sank as much as 11% on Tuesday, following a 10.9% dive in the previous session before Japan’s long weekend. The sharp back-to-back declines stand out even for SoftBank Group, whose shares are highly volatile. SoftBank’s slump came even as many other AI-related Japanese stocks such as chip testing equipment maker Advantest Corp rose, tracking gains in global chip stocks which had soared during Japan’s long weekend.
“The stocks are hit by concerns that the competition environment of OpenAI will become tougher after Google’s Gemini 3 received strong reviews,” said Tsutomu Yamada, market analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ eSmart Securities Co.
The odds for further easing fluctuated in recent weeks, though climbed steadily after dovish remarks from some policymakers signaling support for the labor market. A lack of economic visibility due to the data blackout, along with widening divisions between Fed doves and hawks, have also kept traders guessing about the central bank’s next move.
“It’s really quite unique in the history of the Fed to have such a confrontation of hawkish and dovish narratives,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The lack of visibility on the Fed’s next move could be a big risk this year and for 2026 too.”
Traders are also watching US data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, including September retail sales and producer prices due later Tuesday. Though dated by the recent shutdown, the reports may still carry weight given the lack of fresh data before the Federal Reserve’s meeting next month. A number of September data releases are expected at 8:30 a.m. NY time, including retail sales and PPI, followed by consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November and pending home sales for October at 10 a.m.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%; chemicals, travel and consumer product shares are leading declines while miners outperform. Defense stocks rebound after Russia and Ukraine traded airstrikes overnight. Mining and telecom shares also outperform, while autos as well as travel and leisure sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Kingfisher shares rise as much as 6.9% after the home-improvement retailer raised its full-year earnings guidance and reported third-quarter sales that were slightly ahead of estimates.
- ABN Amro shares advance as much as 5.1%, the best performer in the banks sector, after the Dutch lender said it is planning to cut almost 20% of its workforce in a bid to boost profitability.
- Cranswick shares climb as much as 4.9% as analysts welcomed the meat supplier’s strong performance in the first half and said there is still upside to expectations for the second, despite guidance being reiterated today.
- Marston’s shares rise as much as 15% to the highest level since June 2022, after the pub operator reported results ahead of analysts’ estimates on Tuesday and said Christmas bookings are strong.
- Beazley shares fall as much as 13%, the most in more than five years, after the insurer’s third-quarter sales come in below analysts’ expectations.
- Fortum shares drop as much as 7%, the most since April, after the Finnish utility company gave an update to its long-term targets that didn’t include any mention of data center-related deals, disappointing analysts.
- Intertek shares fall as much as 5.5%, the most in more than three months, as the testing specialist’s organic growth between July and October misses forecasts.
- Carnival shares fall as much as 5.5% after Barclays analyst Brandt Montour wrote on Monday the cruise operator was striking a more “cautious” tone.
- Compass Group shares drop as much as 3.7% to their lowest level since April after the catering and support service company reported results that were slightly above consensus but lacked major catalysts.
- Thyssenkrupp Nucera shares slump as much as 11% after the green hydrogen electrolysis technology company gave guidance for 2026 which was significantly below expectations.
Asian stocks rose, as investors repositioned their bets in artificial intelligence after a report that Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to use chips from Alphabet Inc.’s Google. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, to the highest since Nov. 21. South Korea’s benchmark trimmed an earlier advance of as much as 2.6%, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both memory suppliers to Nvidia — pared gains. In Japan, a 10% decline in SoftBank Group — a key partner to OpenAI — weighed on the Topix, which closed lower. Optimism over Alphabet’s TPU AI chip expansion boosted shares of its Asian suppliers, as investors sought to take position in potential new winners in the AI sector. The move could threaten Nvidia Corp.’s dominance, with analysts expecting a more volatile trading ahead as traders recalibrate for the shifting competitive landscape. Trade relations will stay at the forefront going into next year, with US President Donald Trump agreeing to visit Beijing in April. Investors will also keep an eye on China-Japan relations as the row over Taiwan heats up.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. The yen is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.4%. The pound adds 0.2% ahead of the budget on Wednesday.
In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields dip 1bps to 4.01%. Money markets are pricing in about a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.
In commodities, oil fell sharply after ABC News reported that Ukraine agreed with the US on the terms of a potential peace deal with Russia, with only some minor detail to be sorted out, although subsequent reports from WaPo indicated that Russia will once again balk on the proposed deal. Spot gold is flat near $4,134/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to near $87,000.
To the day ahead now, US data releases include retail sales and PPI inflation for September, along with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen and Cipollone.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX -0.2%, CAC 40 little changed
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
- VIX +0.2 points at 20.67
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1224.89
- euro +0.2% at $1.154
- WTI crude -0.2% at $58.7/barrel
Top Overnight news
- The US and Ukraine have drafted a new 19 pt peace deal but left the most politically sensitive elements to be decided by the countries’ presidents, according to Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister. FT
- Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push a rate cut through a divided committee at next month’s meeting even though it could draw multiple dissents. The unusual level of division inside the Fed means that, to an even greater degree than usual, the final call rests with Powell. WSJ
- Donald Trump’s health care plan is in limbo after pushback from Republicans who were caught off guard by the president’s forthcoming proposal. Trump had been expected to unveil a new policy framework Monday afternoon, said two people familiar with the plan and granted anonymity to describe deliberations around it. Politico; US House Speaker Johnson reportedly cautioned the White House that most House Republicans are not in favour of extending enhanced ACA subsidies: WSJ
- White House said Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
- Nvidia shares dropped premarket on a report that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. Alphabet shares rose premarket, with the company’s AI ascent poised to shake up the rankings of the world’s most valuable companies (NVDA -345bps premkt, GOOG +393 bps premkt). BBG
- China instructed its airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, people familiar said. Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi said Trump briefed her on his call yesterday with Xi Jinping. BBG
- SoftBank shares tumbled on worries that the latest Gemini AI model from Alphabet may intensify competition for OpenAI — the Japanese conglomerate’s key investment. BBG
- European car sales rose for a fourth month in October, driven by increases in Spain and Germany. The UK and Italy stagnated. BBG
- Mutual funds have increased their equity market exposure in recent months in a struggle to keep up with benchmarks. Only 29% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared to an average of 37% since 2007. In response, funds have reduced their cash allocations to 1.2% of assets, a record low. Goldman
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supports lowering interest rates at the central bank’s meeting next month because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. WSJ
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
- US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th: BEA.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets. ASX 200 finished higher but lagged for most the session as strength in mining names was negated by underperformance in the top-weighted financial industry and losses in defensives. Nikkei 225 initially rallied on return from the extended weekend and briefly reclaimed the 49,000 level, before momentarily wiping out its entire spoils. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by continued warming US-China relations following a call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which Trump described as a very good call and noted that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. The PBoC also conducted a CNY 1tln MLF operation that resulted in a net liquidity injection of CNY 100bln.
b) European opening report
NQ underperforms as NVDA -4.4% pre-market following potential Meta-Google partnership – US Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 06:34 AM
- US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.
- European bourses are mostly lower alongside pressure seen in US equity futures; the NQ underperforms as NVIDIA (-4.4%) moves in the pre-market, on reports that Meta (U/C) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s (+3.7%) AI chips.
- DXY moves lower, but still holds onto a 100.00 handle; JPY benefits from haven flows and PM Takaichi comments.
- Bonds hold an upward bias, given the subdued risk tone; Gilts unmoved by a relatively decent auction.
- Crude pulls back from recent gains, XAU is essentially flat and base metals are mixed.
- Looking ahead, US Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, US PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Nov), Richmond Fed (Nov), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Supply from the US, Earnings from Dell.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened mixed, but have dipped off best levels in recent trade, to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Nothing really behind the latest dip in sentiment, but did come alongside some pre-market pressure in NVIDIA as traders continue to digest Meta/Google related newsflow (detailed in the third bullet).
- European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, continuing the sectoral strength seen in APAC trade, whilst Travel & Leisure is found towards the foot of the pile. For the latter, easyJet did initially see strength after its FY results, but dipped as markets digested rising costs. Also pressuring the sector is Evolution (-2.2%), which is dragged lower by a broker downgrade at Jefferies; analysts cited uncertainty re. potential litigation battle with Playtech.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2% NQ -0.4% RTY -0.1%) are trading lower across the board, albeit modestly so. There is some underperformance in the NQ, which has been pressured by pre-market losses in NVIDIA (-4.4%) amidst reports that Meta (U/C) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s (+2%) AI chips.
- Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Q2 2025 (CNY) adj. EPS 4.36 (exp. 4.59), Revenue 247.795bln (exp. 243.08bln), Adj. Net Income 10.352bln (exp. 9.497bln), Cloud Revenue 39.8bln (exp. 37.99bln), China e-commerce revenue 132.58bln (exp. 128.53bln)
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY resides towards the bottom end of a 100.01-100.26 range this morning, which is just inside Friday’s 99.99-100.40 range. Upside is capped as rate cut bets were boosted following dovish rhetoric from Fed officials. From a more macro lens, attention is also on the Ukraine peace plan, which the Washington Post reported was now a 19-point plan, down from 28, with talks expected to continue. Elsewhere, it was announced that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi held a phone call that was said to be productive, in which leaders discussed many topics, including trade. The US schedule is heavy: weekly ADP average jobs data for the four weeks to 8th November are set for release (last week, the average rate of additions improved to -2.5k). US September PPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. -0.1%).
- EUR/USD is a little firmer today and trades within 1.1512 to 1.1540 range. Really not much to talk about from a European specific standpoint today, aside from German GDP (Q3) which was unrevised. Upside today comes in the context of a softer USD and optimism surrounding peace. Despite the optimism, there is still heightened uncertainty regarding the path to peace – as such the upside in the single currency has been relatively muted.
- JPY stands as the outperformer, recent weakness has spurred expectations of potential BoJ intervention, whilst wages are also on watch as Japanese PM Takaichi said the government is to spend JPY 1tln on SME wage hike support, and asking cooperation for base pay gains above inflation. This alongside the risk tone has helped to strengthen the JPY today. USD/JPY is currently at the bottom of a 156.15-156.98 range, dipping under Monday’s 156.37 low, with Friday’s trough at 156.20.
- Cable is a little firmer and trades above the 1.3100 mark in a 1.3096 to 1.3140 range; a peak which is roughly 4 pips above its 21-DMA. The Pound is largely moving at the whim of a slightly lower Dollar, but with price action contained into the Autumn Budget on Wednesday.
- AUD and NZD lower on broader risk whilst the latter looks ahead to a widely anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ at tomorrow’s meeting (full Newsquawk RBNZ preview available on the Research Suite).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0826 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0847).
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are flat/slightly firmer. Initially moved lower soon after the European open, but then gradually edged off worst levels as global sentiment dipped. Nothing really behind the latest slip in the risk tone, but does come as NVIDIA (-3%) continues to sell off in the pre-market. Markets will remain focused on PPI, Retail Sales and ADP Weekly Prelim Estimate later today. USTs are currently trading within a 113-09+ to 113-15 range.
- Bunds are firmer by just over 10 ticks, and essentially following global peers. Currently towards the upper end of a 128.75 to 128.93 range, alongside the souring risk tone. Earlier, German GDP (Q3) which were unrevised, had little impact on German paper. Thereafter, German paper traded choppy into a 2030 Bobl Auction, which drew a better-than-prior b/c. No real move to the benchmark.
- Gilts opened flat, and then gained alongside peers. Currently towards the upper end of a 92.18 to 92.44 range, next level to the upside would be 92.46 which marks the 19th November peak. A relatively strong 2031 auction, which drew a b/c a touch above 3x, had little impact on Gilts.
- Netherlands sells EUR 1.445bln vs exp. EUR 1.0-2.0bln 3.50% 2056 DSL; Average yield 3.469%.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.01x, average yield 4.088%, tail 0.6bps.
- Italy sells EUR 2bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 2.10% 2027 BTP Short Term & EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 1.10% 2031, 2.40% 2039 BTPei.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent have pulled back from Monday’s bid higher despite the absence of any clear drivers. After peaking at USD 59.06/bbl and USD 62.92/bbl respectively in the latter part of Monday’s session, benchmarks have gradually pulled back and have formed a trough at USD 58.32/bbl and USD 62.14/bbl. This comes as the risk tone started on the back foot at the start of the European session. Currently, benchmarks have bounced off their session lows as the global risk tone improves.
- Spot XAU trades choppy following Monday’s bid above USD 4100/oz on dovish Fed rhetoric. After peaking at USD 4156/oz in the early hours of the APAC session, XAU pulled back to a trough at USD 4110/oz before a slight rebound as the risk tone soars following downside in NVIDIA (NVDA) shares.
- 3M LME Copper gapped higher and drove from USD 10.80k/t to a peak of USD 10.89k/t at the start of the APAC session as it followed on from Monday’s positive risk tone and the Trump-Xi meeting. As the European session got underway, the red metal has pared back some of its initial gains as the risk tone starts to weaken, but remains near USD 10.85k/t.
- An announcement on North Sea energy licenses is expected on Wednesday, to coincide with the Budget, via Politico citing sources; official cited says there is likely to be a “pragmatic” shift on policy.
- India’s Russian oil imports set to drop as sanctions hit according to Reuters citing sources. Sanctions to cause sharp December drop in Russian oil imports and refiners seek options on tighter Western curbs, bank scrutiny. US, EU sanctions pressure India’s refiners to cut Russia buys.
- Hong Kong net gold exports to China (Oct) 8.02MT vs prev. 22.047MT; total gold export to China 30.08MT vs prev. 36.275MT.
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium says Black Sea terminal temporarily suspended oil loadings amid drone attacks.
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German GDP Detailed YY NSA (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
- German GDP Detailed QQ SA (Q3) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
- French Consumer Confidence (Nov) 89.0 vs. Exp. 90.0 (Prev. 90.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Treasury asked banks to make public and prominent endorsements of the Budget this week, wanting lenders to praise new policies and show how they will boost lending to first-time buyers and small businesses, according to FT.
- French PM Lecornu has scheduled a debate on Wednesday, 10th December on defense and resources, via Politico citing sources. A second debate will be held on December 15th.
- French Socialist (PS) Leader Faure says he sees the budget as possible
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
- White House said US President Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
- US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.
- US House Speaker Johnson reportedly cautioned the White House that most House Republicans are not in favour of extending enhanced ACA subsidies, via WSJ citing sources.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Taliban spokesman Mujahid said aerial raids took place in the provinces of Kunar and Paktika, which injured four civilians, while it was announced that nine children were killed after Pakistani forces bombed the home of a local resident in the Khost province.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US is holding secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi with US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll meeting delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in a push for a deal to end Russia’s invasion, according to FT.
- A barrage of Russian missiles struck Kyiv overnight, in what the Ukrainian Energy Minister described as a “massive” attack on energy infrastructure, while the Kyiv Mayor said that some areas were experiencing disruptions to power and water.
- Regional Governor said three people were killed and 10 injured in a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Rostov region.
- Russia’s Kremlin says that adjustments are being made to the published text of the Ukraine peace plan. Adds that it is impossible to discuss security system without participation of Europeans and at some stage this will be necessary and that Russia hasn’t received adjusted US plans for Ukraine via RIA.
OTHER
- Taiwan’s Premier said Taiwan is a fully sovereign and independent country and that for Taiwan’s 23mln people, a ‘return’ to China is not an option, while he added that maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is a development the whole world is watching closely. Furthermore, he said they must strengthen self-defence capabilities and must stand together with like-minded democratic countries. In relevant news, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese balloon was detected in the Taiwan Strait on Monday.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan’s UN ambassador sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres explaining Japan’s stance on China’s demand to withdraw PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, while Kihara added that China’s claims that contradict the facts cannot be accepted, and Japan must firmly refute and communicate its position. It was separately reported that Japan’s top foreign ministry official held talks with China’s ambassador, according to Kyodo
- China asks airlines to extend flight cuts to Japan till March 2026, via Bloomberg citing sources.
- Drone reported on Romanian territory, according to CGTN. Alerts for residents in several counties to hide were lifted. Currently, no drone signals are being detects by radars in Romanian airspace. Too early to say how many drones breached the airspace (CGTN)
CRYPTO
- Firmer trade for the crypto complex, with Bitcoin back towards USD 87k whilst Ethereum moves higher and aims for USD 2.9k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets.
- ASX 200 finished higher but lagged for most the session as strength in mining names was negated by underperformance in the top-weighted financial industry and losses in defensives.
- Nikkei 225 initially rallied on return from the extended weekend and briefly reclaimed the 49,000 level, before momentarily wiping out its entire spoils.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by continued warming US-China relations following a call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which Trump described as a very good call and noted that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. The PBoC also conducted a CNY 1tln MLF operation that resulted in a net liquidity injection of CNY 100bln.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC conducted a CNY 1tln Medium-term Lending Facility operation for a CNY 100bln net liquidity injection.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said she spoke with US President Trump on the phone after a phone call was proposed by the US side, and that Trump explained recent US-China relations following his call with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Trump told her that they are very close friends and that she could call him any time, while Takaichi believes they were able to confirm close cooperation between Japan and the US.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan has established a Japanese equivalent of the US Department of Government Efficiency to abolish ineffective subsidies.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is to hold a cabinet meeting on the supplementary budget this Friday.
- Japanese PM Takaichi says the government is to spend JPY 1tln on SME wage hike support; asking cooperation for base pay gains above inflation.
c) Asian opening report
NVIDIA falls afterhours following potential Meta-Google partnership, European equities set to open in the red despite positive APAC trade – Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 02:03 AM
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) fell afterhours on a report that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s (GOOGL) AI chips.
- US President Trump posted that he had a very good telephone call with Chinese President Xi and that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products.
- US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.
- ECB’s Nagel said the current level of the Euro at 1.1600 is not cause for concern.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP (Q3), US Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, US PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Nov), Richmond Fed (Nov), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone & Makhlouf, Supply from UK, Italy, Germany & US, Earnings from Dell.
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SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rallied with the SPX reclaiming 6,700 and posting broad-based gains, while the Nasdaq was the outperformer as AI names clawed back some recent losses. Communications jumped 4%, led by Alphabet after more upbeat commentary on its latest AI updates, while tech and consumer discretionary gained about 2.5% (led by Broadcom, AVGO +11%) and 2.0%, respectively. Furthermore, NVIDIA (NVDA) fell afterhours on a report that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s (GOOGL) AI chips.
- Support also came from firmer expectations of a December rate cut after Fed Governor Waller reaffirmed backing for a 25bps move, and Daly (2027 voter) also endorsed such a reduction. As such, money markets priced a December cut at a 76% probability at one point, which was up from the 56% chance seen on Friday.
- SPX +1.55% at 6,705, NDX +2.62% at 24,874, DJI +0.44% at 46,448, RUT +1.89% at 2,414.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump posted that he had a very good telephone call with Chinese President Xi and that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. Trump added that they have done a good and very important deal for farmers, and it will only get better, as well as noted that the relationship with China is extremely strong. Furthermore, he said that President Xi invited him to visit Beijing in April, which he accepted and reciprocated, with Xi to be Trump’s guest for a state visit to the US later in the year.
- White House Press Secretary said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s phone call lasted an hour, while trade was discussed, and the call was productive.
- EU reportedly dismissed the US demand to relax tech regulations in exchange for lower steel tariffs, according to sources.
- Trade talks between the US and Canada remain stalled, and there’s an emerging belief in both governments that key issues will be rolled into next year’s broader review of the North America trade deal, according to sources via Bloomberg.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said there are real use cases for AI, but not for crypto, and noted people are feeling hardship due to inflation.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) backs a December rate cut, citing a vulnerable labour market, while she supports lowering rates at the December meeting because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
- White House said US President Trump signed an executive order related to AI research, while the order will boost AI-accelerated innovation and directs the building of AI platforms to harness federal scientific data sets.
- US Q3 GDP initial estimate is to be released on December 23rd, while US PCE and Personal Income report (Sep) was rescheduled for December 5th, according to the BEA.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the tech-led rally on Wall St, where sentiment was bolstered as dovish comments from Fed officials boosted December rate cut bets.
- ASX 200 finished higher but lagged for most the session as strength in mining names was negated by underperformance in the top-weighted financial industry and losses in defensives.
- Nikkei 225 initially rallied on return from the extended weekend and briefly reclaimed the 49,000 level, before momentarily wiping out its entire spoils.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by continued warming US-China relations following a call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which Trump described as a very good call and noted that they discussed many topics, including Ukraine/Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. The PBoC also conducted a CNY 1tln MLF operation that resulted in a net liquidity injection of CNY 100bln.
- US equity futures plateaued overnight and held on to the prior day’s tech-led gains.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was contained amid the positive risk appetite and as rate cut bets were boosted following the dovish rhetoric from Fed officials, including Waller who reiterated the case for a December cut, while Daly said she’d back a rate cut as she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up. Attention was also on the Ukraine peace plan, which the Washington Post reported was now a 19-point plan, down from 28, with talks expected to continue, while it was also announced that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi held a phone call that was said to be productive, in which leaders discussed many topics, including trade.
- EUR/USD traded little changed after recently benefiting from a softer buck and optimism on the Ukraine conflict.
- GBP/USD held onto the 1.3100 handle for most of the session following the prior day’s choppy performance alongside further updates ahead of the Budget announcement on Wednesday, which Chancellor Reeves said would include three priorities: the cost of living, NHS waiting lists and the cost of debt.
- USD/JPY marginally pulled back after briefly returning to the 157.00 territory, with the recent weakness in the Japanese currency spurring expectations of potential looming BoJ intervention.
- Antipodeans were uneventful amid a virtually non-existent overnight calendar, although with slight pressure in NZD ahead of a widely anticipated rate cut by the RBNZ at tomorrow’s meeting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0826 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0847).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures paused overnight after gradually edging higher yesterday amid dovish Fed rhetoric, but with the upside limited amid supply.
- Bund futures remained afloat following recent indecision, although demand was contained with near-term resistance at the 129.00 level and as German GDP data loomed, while there is also incoming supply, including a EUR 4.0bln Bobl issuance today and a EUR 3.0bln Bund issuance tomorrow.
- 10yr JGB futures were subdued amid the mostly positive risk appetite and a quiet calendar with a lack of tier-1 data for Japan.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures marginally pulled back after ultimately gaining yesterday alongside the positive risk appetite, which helped markets shrug off the initial indecisiveness seen as Ukraine peace talks dominated the tape on Monday.
- Chinese President Xi said they are to enhance energy partnership and will ensure a smooth energy supply chain with Russia.
- Spot gold extended on its gains after a recent ascent to back above the USD 4100/oz level on increased Fed rate cut bets and a softer dollar.
- Copper futures continued the prior day’s rebound amid the mostly positive risk appetite and following the Trump-Xi call.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin lacked conviction with price action choppy on both sides of the USD 88k level.
- Japan is to require crypto exchanges to set aside liability reserves, according to Nikkei.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC conducted a CNY 1tln Medium-term Lending Facility operation for a CNY 100bln net liquidity injection.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said she spoke with US President Trump on the phone after a phone call was proposed by the US side, and that Trump explained recent US-China relations following his call with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Trump told her that they are very close friends and that she could call him any time, while Takaichi believes they were able to confirm close cooperation between Japan and the US.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan has established a Japanese equivalent of the US Department of Government Efficiency to abolish ineffective subsidies.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is to hold a cabinet meeting on the supplementary budget this Friday.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Taliban spokesman Mujahid said aerial raids took place in the provinces of Kunar and Paktika, which injured four civilians, while it was announced that nine children were killed after Pakistani forces bombed the home of a local resident in the Khost province.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said current peace proposals contain fewer than 28 points after joint work and they will discuss sensitive topics of the peace plan with US President Trump, while he added that the peace framework includes “correct” points now and he urged Ukrainians to react to air alerts in the coming days, as well as stated that “we know who we are dealing with”.
- US White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US and Ukraine talks have been productive and there are just a couple of points of disagreement, while she added that President Trump is optimistic that a deal can be struck.
- US is holding secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi with US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll meeting delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in a push for a deal to end Russia’s invasion, according to FT.
- A barrage of Russian missiles struck Kyiv overnight, in what the Ukrainian Energy Minister described as a “massive” attack on energy infrastructure, while the Kyiv Mayor said that some areas were experiencing disruptions to power and water.
- Regional Governor said three people were killed and 10 injured in a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Rostov region.
OTHER
- Taiwan’s Premier said Taiwan is a fully sovereign and independent country and that for Taiwan’s 23mln people, a ‘return’ to China is not an option, while he added that maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is a development the whole world is watching closely. Furthermore, he said they must strengthen self-defence capabilities and must stand together with like-minded democratic countries. In relevant news, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese balloon was detected in the Taiwan Strait on Monday.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan’s UN ambassador sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres explaining Japan’s stance on China’s demand to withdraw PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, while Kihara added that China’s claims that contradict the facts cannot be accepted, and Japan must firmly refute and communicate its position. It was separately reported that Japan’s top foreign ministry official held talks with China’s ambassador, according to Kyodo
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves told Labour MPs “The Budget on Wednesday will be about three priorities: cutting the cost of living, cutting NHS waiting lists and cutting the cost of debt.”
- UK Treasury asked banks to make public and prominent endorsements of the Budget this week, wanting lenders to praise new policies and show how they will boost lending to first-time buyers and small businesses, according to FT.
- ECB’s Nagel said the current level of the Euro at 1.1600 is not cause for concern, while he added that food inflation remains stubborn. Nagel added that the ECB keeps an eye on strong price increases in services too, as well as noted that with December projections, they will see more clearly if the monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
2a North Korea /South Korea
end
2b Japan
3. CHINA
CHINA/JAPAN
KORYBKO
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS
GERMANY
“Absolutely Breathtaking” – Exposing The Censorship Industrial Complex’s Power Grip In Germany
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Greg Collard via Racket.news,
New liber-net report maps an expansive network of government and private censors across Germany…
Many organizations and federal agencies involved in censoring Americans under the guise of mis/disinformation have shut down in the last couple years. Racket’s Twitter Files exposed the level of censorship slime oozing from organizations such as the Stanford Internet Observatory, the Election Integrity Project, and the Virality Project. On the government side of things, there was the Global Engagement Center, the Foreign Influence Task Force, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which still exists but is no longer involved in mis/disnfo work.
That’s not to say America is perfect when it comes to free speech, but as Sen. Rand Paul said in September, “throughout government, the censorship apparatus that Biden had put in place is gone.”
However, if you look to Germany, the strongest economic power in the European Union, it’s easy to see where America was going. It has about 330 organizations working with federal and state levels of government to suppress speech and about 425 grants — mostly from the government — that fund this work, according to research from liber-net, a free speech group that tracks censorship.
The most high-profile cases of German censorship, at least in America, have been raids of people who authorities determined had engaged in “digital violence” for offenses that include insulting someone. These raids were the subject of a high-Zprofile “60 Minutes” segment last February. Prosecutors and police largely depend on a system of government-certified and government-funded “flaggers.”
While these incidents understandably get the most attention, the censorship apparatus is much more deeply ingrained in German society, says Andrew Lowenthal, the CEO of liber-net.
“Germany is the most important country doing this type of content controls work in the entirety of the EU and I would argue has a significant influence on the EU. There’s not really any light between civil society and the government.”
As a result, there’s a constant “atmosphere of intimidation,” says Thomas Geisel, a former mayor of Dusseldorf and now a member of the European Parliament.
“People are afraid to speak their mind. That people always have to find some sort of way of expressing their mind in a politically correct way has created a narrower space for discourse, and I think that is really threatening our democracy.”
Liber-net’s report includes a searchable database of organizations involved in content control and the grants that fund their work, categorized from 1-5 flags, with five being the worst for its censorship advocacy.
The report indicates that government funding for content controls peaked in 2023 at about $36 million (converted from euros, as all dollar amounts in this article are) among the German federal and state governments as well as the EU. While the combined funding among the three has decreased to around $23 million, the amount from the German federal government remains roughly the same and has increased since last year.
Source: liber-net. Amounts in euros.
The “subtle instruments”
In some cases, government money goes to private organizations that act as a middleman for the government. For example, all of the money the private German Research Foundation distributes is provided by the German federal and state governments, and the EU (1%). The foundation awards money to various mis/disinfo causes. In June, it even requested proposals to expand “the term ‘disinformation’ to include claims that may be factually true,” according to liber-net.
The report says the German government has certified four organizations as flaggers, or in the government’s framing, organizations with “specialized expertise and experience in identifying and reporting illegal content.” The Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), which enforces the EU’s controversial Digital Services Act, awards grants to these flaggers.
Among them is a group called REspect!. It’s been a government-certified “trusted flagger” since October 2024, which means “deletion requests submitted by REspect! to the platforms must be given priority and processed within a shorter time,” according to a REspect! report. The group received funding directly from a government grant program called “Demokratie leben!,” which translates to Live Democracy!
REspect! has an online portal for people to submit their complaints, which are then forwarded to the proper authorities such as the Bavarian Police. That was the case for one person who had the audacity to call a German politician a “Dummschwätzer” on Facebook — which roughly translates to “blowhard” — as documented by the Bundestag in a list of attacks against politicians and political parties.
Translation via ChatGPT: “Report of an offense via the online portal of the Bavarian Police through the reporting office REspect! Reporting an online insult. The GS (Green Party member of the state parliament) was called a ‘Dummschwätzer’ (‘blabbermouth’ / ‘loud-mouthed idiot’) on Facebook.”
Another “trusted flagger” is HateAid, which received its certification in June after proving its bona fides in other aspects of Germany’s censorship apparatus since its founding in 2018, garnering at least $5.2 million in government funding, according to liber-net.
HateAid purports to be a defender of free speech. From its homepage:
However, HateAid, armed with public funding, will go after people who express the wrong opinion. Take the Russia-Ukraine war, according to liber-net:
HateAid has also notably pursued the censorship of those protesting Berlin’s backing of Kiev; it has classified the hashtag “Kriegstreiber” (or “Warmonger”) as “pro-Kremlin propaganda” whose effect is to “undermine the credibility of politicians” supporting Berlin’s war efforts.
HateAid even warns that the “warmonger” hashtag from “small pro-Kremlin accounts” can shape public debate because they respond to channels with large audiences, such as those of politicians and journalists (bold emphasis is HateAid):
These are retweeted or commented on preferentially in order to spread the narrative of the “warmonger”. In this way, even small accounts can share propaganda with enormous reach. As a result, they enter the centre of society, where they are also perceived and taken up by citizens who are reading along. In effect, they are free riders on the reach of these accounts and can thus shape the public debate.
The CEO of HateAid, Josephine Ballon, was part of the 60 Minutes piece mentioned above. She declared that “free speech needs boundaries.”
Without speech boundaries, Ballon argued that people will be afraid to participate in political discussions.
“This is not only a fear, it’s already taking place. Already half of the Internet users in Germany are afraid to express their political opinion, and they rarely participate in public debates online anymore.”
There lies the rub: is that because people are afraid of being criticized or attacked online, or because people are afraid of being turned over to authorities by the government’s “trusted flaggers” such as HateAid and REspect!?
Geisel says Germany’s censorship apparatus is having a similar effect as anti-speech laws in Russia, which, after invading Ukraine, made “discrediting the armed forces” a crime.
“It’s a lot more subtle [in Germany], but the result is very similar in that you simply don’t speak your mind anymore because there are more subtle instruments preventing you from speaking your mind.”
He points to the highly publicized case of political scientist Ulrike Guerot as an example. Guerot was a political science professor at the University of Bonn until she was fired in 2023 after outrage over a book she co-authored, “Endspiel Europa,” which translates to “Endgame Europe.” Guerot argued that “Ukraine had the role of starting a war with Russia on behalf of the West, which was then to be backed militarily and logistically by NATO member states…”
Officially, Guerot was fired for plagiarism, although she maintains there were only minor problems and that the accusations were a pretext for firing her over her views.
Guerot said liber-net’s report is eye-opening because it maps out a censorship network that makes clear to her the problem is worse than she realized.
“It draws the line between the dots and you say, ‘Ah, this is connected to this and they got the money from there.’ And that’s why it’s called a censorship network. It’s like a spider net, and there are the dots and it’s all connected. And in this respect, I must admit it was absolutely breathtaking.”
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS/WEST BANK
IDF kills terrorist who murdered Israeli security guard in 2024 terror attack
The action follows a Monday firefight in the area of eastern Nablus between Israeli forces and a wanted terrorist during counterterrorism operations.
Israeli security forces seen during a military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin, February 1, 2025(photo credit: NASSER ISHTAYEH/FLASH90)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFF
NOVEMBER 25, 2025 10:59Updated: NOVEMBER 25, 2025 11:44
Israeli security forces killed Sultan al-Ghani, the terrorist responsible for the 2024 murder of Gideon Perry, near Jenin in the northern West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) said in a statement on Tuesday.
The event occured during a joint operation between the two agencies.
Perry, an Israeli security guard, was murdered in a 2024 terror attack during which Ghani stole his firearm and vehicle before escaping.
Five others were arrested during the operation, and a ‘Carlo’ style weapon, an M16, explosives, and multiple magazines and ammunition were found.
The announcement came after Army Radio reported that IDF soldiers were operating in the Palestinian town of Mirka near Jenin earlier on Tuesday.
Israeli forces kill additional terrorist wanted for 2024 terror
It also follows a Monday firefight in the area of eastern Nablus between Israeli forces and a wanted terrorist during counterterrorism operations.
After the terrorist was killed, it was revealed that he was responsible for the 2024 deaths of two IDF soldiers in the Kfir Brigade.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF kills five terrorists who evaded troops for hours after emerging from Rafah tunnel
The incident occurred while the troops were conducting searches in the area.
Israeli soldiers stand at the entrance of a tunnel in Rafah in the Gaza Strip on September 13, 2024.(photo credit: Sharon Aronowicz/AFP via Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 25, 2025 19:48
The IDF killed five terrorists who had emerged from tunnels and initially evaded troops in eastern Rafah near the Yellow Line in IDF-controlled territory, the military said Tuesday.
The incident occurred while the troops were conducting searches in the area.
This is a developing story.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
From inside Rafah: The most unexpected battle of the war – feature
Reporter’s Notebook: The ‘Post’ visits Rafah, where the status of 200 Hamas fighters has shaken the Gaza ceasefire, and the wider region.
An IDF soldier operating near Rafah, November 2025.(photo credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 24, 2025 17:00Updated: NOVEMBER 24, 2025 22:42
Plumes of smoke floated up into the sky in several different spots at once.
Tank machine-gun fire periodically interrupted what otherwise would have been a quiet trip through the desert.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3978198&url=www.jpost.comThe Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob visits the IDF in Rafah, Gaza Strip, November 2025. (credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)It was the most unexpected and yet still highly impactful battle of the war.
Especially because it was the only ongoing battle, given that the war technically ended on October 4 or 10, depending on whether one goes by when the IDF invasion stopped in its tracks or when the ceasefire papers were signed.
Around 200 Hamas fighters had gotten unintentionally trapped in the Israeli half of Gaza in eastern Rafah when the ceasefire kicked in.
This is where The Jerusalem Post visited on Sunday, coming as close as 600 meters away from where the IDF eventually intercepted 17 Hamas terrorists who tried to escape from their tunnels a day earlier.
The soldiers in the area, including Golani Brigade Commander Col. Adi Gonen, as well as the Nahal Brigade, killed 11 and arrested six.
Gonen told the Post and other media that the goal is “the central purpose is to locate the enemy and to destroy him or accept his surrender…. Yesterday, 17 terrorists were killed or surrendered” to a mix of Golani and Nahal forces.
The altercation led Hamas to threaten to abandon the ceasefire.
Further, the overall situation with the trapped Hamas forces there has shaken the region for weeks.
US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff made a special flight to Jerusalem to try to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to allow the Hamas fighters to cross into Hamas-controlled Gaza if they would be willing to turn over their weapons to the Egyptians.
The internal Israeli debate about whether to let the Hamas fighters go or not almost toppled the Israeli government, with threats from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
IDF chief sends out mixed messaging
There have been weeks of mixed messaging from IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir.
At times, he seemed ready to let the Hamas forces go if Netanyahu cut such a deal with Kushner, but at times, he seemed to insist that they must be killed or surrender to IDF personnel.
Based on the Post’s observations, the area where the remaining Hamas fighters are hiding and have been hiding underground has almost no above-ground structures.
IDF sources told the Post that they figured out several weeks ago, using various technological means to explore the tunnels in the area, that there was a large segment of Hamas fighters who had been trapped on the Israeli side.
Since then, they said that they have been slowly and meticulously cutting off underground areas where the Hamas terrorists might flee to.
The concept is to continuously narrow the underground area where they can maneuver and hide until they are effectively surrounded – similar to the way the IDF likes to surround a group of terrorists above ground.
IDF sources said they did not know why the Hamas terrorists did not flee into Hamas-controlled Gaza during the transition to the ceasefire.
It is possible that this group was cut off from communications with the central Hamas leadership and did not know they would run out of time and could be trapped by the IDF.
Another possibility is that they assumed that they had so much maneuvering space underground that they would eventually easily sneak past IDF patrols back in Hamas-controlled Gaza at a convenient moment, or that they would not be detected by the IDF at all and could remain in the area indefinitely.
It may be that they thought the IDF would let them go if they were found, so as not to anger Hamas and endanger the ceasefire, being that killing 200 fighters all in one place usually would not be considered consistent with a ceasefire. The loophole here is that no one from Hamas is supposed to be in areas controlled by Israel – certainly not armed.
Finally, maybe they thought that to get back more Israeli deceased bodies of hostages, the IDF would withdraw from the area, and they would return to rule above ground.
IDF finds Hamas terrorists short on food, water, lacking morale
IDF finds Hamas terrorists short on food, water, lacking morale: However, at this point, the IDF sources described those Hamas terrorists whom they arrested as short on food and water and demoralized.
Those who have left the tunnels appear to have done so, feeling that they ran out of any other options and were about to be killed by IDF encroachments or starve.
They also probably did not realize how quickly IDF surveillance would zero in on them and bomb them with a Hermes 450 “Zik” drone.
Those who were arrested were passed on to the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) for interrogation.
The Shin Bet has many activities in the area, including dealing with those Palestinian groups similar to Abu Shabab, which are potentially ready to challenge Hamas for control of certain areas. The IDF does not generally deal with such groups.
Instead of the IDF considering further withdrawals, Israel used the fact that the IDF trapped such a large number of Hamas fighters in the area to pressure Hamas into complying with returning almost all of the deceased hostage bodies. Those bodies were “leverage” that it had hoped to hold onto to force more concessions from Israel.
Moreover, IDF sources said they believe dozens more Hamas fighters from the group had been killed and were buried under the ground, not far from where the Post and the soldiers were walking through.
The IDF has said that it has attacked 60 targets, including 15 tunnel shafts, and destroyed hundreds of meters of tunnels.
Pressed about why the IDF was not using airstrikes to kill all of the Hamas fighters, IDF sources said that they used airstrikes wherever feasible. Yet, in some instances, airstrikes would not necessarily kill the fighters, and in some instances, they wanted to track who was killed or arrested by seeing them up close.
IDF sources also said that they believed the Hamas terrorists from this group were well-trained and experienced and led by a relatively senior figure, likely a battalion commander.
This is in contrast to the majority of Hamas’s brand-new forces, who are younger, often minors, and have had little training.
Aside from the 200 Hamas fighters – who IDF sources say have likely dropped to dozens and who may be finished off within a period of weeks, a month or two at the most, if no diplomatic deal is cut to save them – IDF sources said that the broader Palestinian population is kilometers away.
IDF operations ongoign close to Palestinian population in Rafah
IDF operations ongoing close to Palestinian population in Rafah: If in parts of northern Gaza there are only a few hundred meters separating IDF frontal positions from the Palestinian population, the IDF portion of Rafah cuts deep into the center of the Strip.
This was the first trip by this reporter back to Gaza since the ceasefire kicked in, and the sense among IDF personnel was that, aside from this unexpected battle with Hamas forces caught at the wrong place at the wrong time, the ceasefire is holding.
They are, of course, ready to return to going on the offensive if necessary, but generally they are in a holding pattern.
Despite the new general calm arising from the ceasefire, IDF sources are nowhere near feeling even a theoretical impact of incoming international peacekeepers.
They have not trained for how to deal with these peacekeepers, nor had any coordination conversations, suggesting that the late 2025 or very early 2026 deployment of the new hoped-for International Stabilization Force (ISF) may be overly optimistic.
But after the Post has visited Gaza so many times and seen so many U-turns on policy and strategy, it has also become clear that the commanders in the field know best how to defeat the enemy in front of them, but are often not in the conversation about the future strategic direction of the Strip.
Ultimately, this visit to Gaza showed the Post how surprised all parties involved were by this unexpected battle, and how close that curveball came to breaking the truce, but that for now, the chiefs on all sides seem to have backed off the issue, allowing it to play out on the ground however it will play out.
END
SYRIA
Syria’s Homs In Lockdown, Alawite Houses Set On Fire, Amid New ‘Revenge’ Killings
Monday, Nov 24, 2025 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,
A Bedouin couple was killed Saturday in their home in the town of Zaidal, on the outskirts of Homs, Syria. The two were members of the Bani Khaled tribe, and state media reported that “sectarian slogans” were found at the scene.
The tribe responded by attacking the Alawite-heavy al-Muhajireen neighborhood in Homs, burning Alawite homes and shops and vandalizing cars while attacking locals. Two young Alawite men, who were reported missing, turned up at a nearby hospital killed under mysterious circumstances. Dozens have been reported wounded in the attacks.
Maj. Gen. Murhaf al-Nassan said that the attack in Zaidal appeared to be meant to undermine stability in the region, and the government has yet to identify who actually carried out the attack. The government declared a curfew in Homs in response to the violence.
One Syrian journalist noted that the claims of an Alawite attack on Zaidal weren’t plausible, because the Alawites have been disarmed and, in taking such visible credit for the attack, they would know that the retaliation would hit their community, as it indeed has.
The Alawites have been targeted repeatedly by other factions, and the government itself, with a high-profile massacre of Alawite civilians in the northwest of the country in March leading to low level violence against the religious minority ever since.
The scale of the violence is not yet known, as the government sent forces to the city to restore order, and imposed a curfew.
“Security personnel have been deployed in Alawite areas but the situation in Homs remains very sensitive,” said a resident who works as a graphic designer and gave her name as Rawa. —The National
Alawites are around 10% of Syria’s population, and as former President Bashar al-Assad was an Alawite himself, they have been targets of opponents of the old regime, even though they note that under Assad they weren’t generally treated better than anyone else.
com/LindseySnell/status/1992598497728827851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1992598497728827851%7Ctwgr%5E3d3d09bfa627f96770225602c8ecc4575c1a3eee%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fsyrias-homs-lockdown-alawite-homes-set-fire-new-revenge-killings
While the Islamist government has presented an idea of religious unity for Syria, they have also eagerly branded any clashes involving Alawites as “Assad remnant” forces, and reacted harshly, while plainly targeting the Alawites on a day-to-day basis.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/EUROPE USA
Trump Has Called Europe’s Bluff
Monday, Nov 24, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Wolfgang Munchau via UnHerd.com,
The 28-point plan the White House negotiated with the Kremlin is not a done deal. It’s not even close. It is a blueprint, no more, no less. In any case, Trump is an unpredictable player — he could back out at any moment. But this time, I don’t think he will.
The plan, first circulated on a Telegram channel, is clearly not a great one for Ukraine. But, equally, it isn’t a “capitulation” and those who have described it as such don’t really want a deal. Ukraine will be able to improve on it. But, admittedly, not by much. “You don’t have the cards,” Trump once told Zelensky. Unfortunately, after the recent corruption scandal, his hand is weaker than ever.
Over the past three years, US officials have repeatedly told me that Ukraine has no chance of winning the war. And after America withdrew support earlier this year, it was clear that they had a point: Europe was in no position to plug the gap. Europeans might be the self-righteous defenders of the fast-collapsing multilateral world order, but history will record that when push came to shove, they weren’t ready to put their money where their mouth was. On average, the total support for Ukraine was around €4 billion per month during the first half of the year. In July and August, it collapsed to under €1 billion per month, according to the Kiel Institute. No major European country has been willing to cut spending or raise taxes to fund Ukraine meaningfully. The Europeans’ strategy, such as it was beyond photo-ops with Zelensky, was to keep the Russians fighting until they got tired.
Unfortunately, America tired first. And Europe had no Plan B.
Now Europe is out of money and out of ideas. And Trump does have a plan. He has been playing the long game. His tough talk against Vladimir Putin was merely tactical, intended to mask a long-term strategy to force an end to the war. As Phillips O’Brien has suggested, in his “Long Con” analysis, even Trump’s secondary oil sanctions were part of this gambit. These were supposed to take effect on 21 November. And yet nothing happened. India and China can continue buy Russian oil with impunity. The sanctions were never serious.
Trump has a singular priority — to end the war, whatever it takes. And he has two major advantages in this bid. One is Ukraine and Europe’s military dependence on the US. The other is America’s unique status as the only influential Western power with direct diplomatic channels with Moscow. The Europeans committed a huge strategic blunder when they simultaneously ended their conversations with Vladimir Putin.
And so Trump’s 28-point plan was negotiated by Steve Witkoff with his counterpart in Russia, Kirill Dmitriev. Admittedly, it does have the feel of a work in progress: the leaked version was written in Russian and, when translated into English, is clumsy. It is detailed, but by no means a formally agreed text.
There are, though, some non-negotiable elements. One is the territorial agreement which would give Russia a part of Ukraine it does not yet occupy. Russia already holds almost 90% of the entire Donbas region — all of Luhansk, and roughly three quarters of Donetsk. Trump’s peace plan would hand Russia the remaining territory of Donetsk, along with the 200,000 Ukrainians who are still resident in the Ukrainian-controlled parts of the oblast. Under the plan, the territory would be demilitarised and become part of a buffer zone.
Trump’s team accepted this because they concluded, correctly, in my view, that without it there would be no deal. Putin would have continued to fight and eventually captured more territory. Russia has been making advances: it recently managed to occupy the vital frontline town of Pokrovsk. It could take another year for Russia to capture the remainder of Donetsk, before it went for the big prize: Zaporizhzhia, a city with approximately 700,000 inhabitants, and the capital of the region that bears the same name. At that point, Ukraine’s future independence could could no longer be assured.
This peace deal, though, is not as one-sided as its critics say. It formally recognises the sovereignty of Ukraine, and its right to join the EU. It also allows Ukraine to maintain an army, capped at a reasonable 600,000 troops. Nor does restrict Nato countries from providing further assistance, except for certain weapon categories like long-range missiles.
But there are some real curveballs. I almost fell off my chair when I read Point 14, which suggests the investing of $100bn of Russia’s frozen assets in the reconstruction of Ukraine — with the US taking half of the profits. This is classic Trump: playing commercial games which are beyond the imagination of our European diplomats. In addition, Europe would be obliged to pay $100bn of assistance from their own pockets. There will be a US-Russian investment fund to finance joint American–Russian projects, with profits shared.
But most importantly, the deal forces Europe to unfreeze the $200 billion in Russian assets currently held in European accounts, mostly in Belgium. This is a bitter pill; Europe had hoped it could use the Russian money as collateral for Ukraine loans. Trump has no authority to force Europe to release the funds — Friedrich Merz already said No to this demand — but he could make life difficult if it refuses.
Europe’s only semi-coherent strategy regarding Ukraine had been to withhold these assets as leverage for future reparations — a plan built on the fiction that Ukraine would win this war.
But if Russia and Ukraine end up agreeing a deal, this scheme would be rendered unworkable, since would be a tool with which the Europeans could sabotage the deal.
Another red-line in the peace deal is the gradual lifting of sanctions. Readmitting Russia to the Group of Seven advanced industrial nations — making it the G8 again — would be painful for the Europeans. Russia was expelled in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea. A revived G8 would effectively be ruled by Trump and Putin.
No surprise, then, that EU leaders at the G20 summit in South Africa this weekend issued a statement to say that they wanted to make a counterproposal, designed primarily to frustrate Trump’s plan. They insisted on a ceasefire — a non-starter. And after senior US and European officials met in Geneva on Sunday, they said they had made some progress but gave no details.
Ukraine, by contrast, made some positive noises about a new version of the deal. The Kyiv Independent quoted a senior US official saying that the plan had been drawn up with Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the National and Security Council of Ukraine, and one of Zelensky’s closest aides. Umerov reportedly agreed to the majority of the deal, after making several modifications, which he then showed to Zelensky.
Domestic attitudes in Ukraine are also shifting. I noted a post from Iuliia Mendel, Zelensky’s former press secretary and staunch defender of Ukraine. Over the weekend she tweeted: “My country is bleeding out. Many who reflexively oppose every peace proposal believe they are defending Ukraine. With all respect, that is the clearest proof they have no idea what is actually happening on the front lines and inside the country right now.” She is absolutely right in her observation that the loudest supporters of Ukraine in Europe are those with no understanding whatsoever of the military reality on the ground.
So will the Europeans encourage Zelensky to keep on fighting? I am sure they will try. But I am not sure they will succeed. Ultimately, they will back down.
Because if Ukraine were to reject the deal, Trump would formally disconnect his remaining military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine. The country relies on this as its early warning system for any incoming attacks as well as guiding its own strikes on Russian infrastructure.
Trump could go even further and renounce US responsibility for Europe’s security, on the grounds that the continent is taking unacceptable risks. The Europeans know this, of course. While outwardly, they may give an impression of defiance, their actions suggest otherwise. After Trump imposed tariffs on European imports this summer, the EU folded and agreed to a big increase in military spending. If Europe really wanted independence from the US, it would have created a defence procurement union, with a “Buy European” mandate and started to reorganise its militaries. None of this is happening. Nor will it. This is the problem with the multilateral crowd. They care too much about procedures.
We can expect a good deal of huffing and puffing coming from European capitals over the next few days. Leaders will insist that they are retain sovereign decision-making. Legally, this is true. The US has no rights to decide the fate of Russian assets held in Europe.
But this is not a legal dispute, it is a political one. Europe never had a viable strategy for the war — and now it’s becoming clear it has no strategy for peace either. The Europeans have no choice but to make a deal: they have no cards left to play either.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine Tentatively Agrees To Trump-Backed Peace Plan, Sending Oil Sliding
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 08:10 AM
A US official privy to negotiations is claiming major progress Tuesday, telling ABC News the Ukrainian delegation has agreed to the United States’ potential peace plan, at a moment it’s still being hotly debated, especially among the Europeans.
“The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” the US official said, but without specifying much in the way of details. “There are some minor details to be sorted out but they have agreed to a peace deal.”
Of course, the proverbial devil is in the details, along with each side’s ‘red lines’ – and so this claim should be taken with caution at this still very early point.
The Trump White House has set a deadline of Thursday, or Thanksgiving Day in America, for the warring sides to reach a deal. This suggests these talks are moving along with intensity and a sense of urgency.
“United States Army Secretary Dan Driscoll held secret talks on Monday with a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates to follow up on this weekend’s talks with Ukraine in Geneva that were intended to move the Ukraine peace process forward,” ABC cites a US official further as describing.
Oil slides on the optimistic headline that Ukraine has tentatively agreed to the Trump-backed deal…
As we described Monday evening, the Zelensky government has still appeared publicly resistant to any deal which cedes territory to Russian forces. Also most importantly is that the Ukrainian government has said it will reject outside attempts to control its future alliances, which is a reference to the US plan’s call for a commitment that Ukraine never join NATO.
Also injecting some realism in these front-running headlines is The Washington Post Tuesday morning, which writes:
Russia is unlikely to accept changes in the new peace plan to end the war that the U.S. and Ukraine are negotiating over, say analysts, even as U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll is in the United Arab Emirates meeting with a Russian delegation and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected in the United States.
From Moscow’s point of view the most objectionable term is to accept that Ukraine would be given ‘Article 5-style’ security guarantees by the Western alliance. This could be recipe for future major war, if NATO-like guarantees are given.
But Zelensky in his latest statement on X pledged that Ukraine would “never be an obstacle to peace” – but also emphasized the importance of his country remaining independent and sovereign. What that means by the end of this process is still very up in the air at this point.
END
RUSSIA /UKRAINE
ANOTHER RUSSIAN HIT ON UKRAINE
Six Dead As Russian Missiles Pummel Kiev, Even As Trump’s Peace Deal Advances
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 09:45 AM
The Ukrainian capital was once again pummeled overnight, as Russia unleashed a barrage of at least 22 missiles on the city, in what the Ukrainian minister of energy called a “massive” attack on energy infrastructure.
Accompanying this at least 460 drones were sent against various areas of Ukraine, with several reportedly breaching either Moldova or Romania, according to a statement from President Zelensky. By morning, authorities reported at least six killed and another 13 injured in the attacks.
“Last night, Russia launched another attack — at a time when Ukraine, together with America, Europe, and many others around the world, are working virtually around the clock to stop the bloodshed,” Zelensky announce on social media.
Ukrainian officials expressed frustration and outrage that these major attacks are continuing even as peace negotiations overseen by the United States make progress. We earlier detailed that US officials are optimistic at this point, as the 28-point plan gets condensed to 19 points.
“And so this night we spend in bomb shelters, listening how the missiles rain down on Kyiv,” Kira Rudik, a member of Ukrainian parliament, stated. “This is Russia’s response to peace negotiations.”
During the overnight attack, drones reportedly violated European airspace, resulting in Romanian F-16 jets being scrambled as a precaution:
Six Russian drones violated Moldovan airspace during Moscow’s massive overnight attack on Tuesday against Ukraine, with one crashing into a residential home, according to the Moldovan Defense Ministry.
According to the ministry, the first drone was detected over the Vinogradovka-Vulcănești area before moving toward the Romanian border at an altitude of roughly 1,500 meters (5,000 feet).
Shortly afterward, surveillance systems tracked five additional drones crossing the airspace over Dondușeni, Orhei, Bender, Vadul-lui-Vodă and Florești.
One of these drones reportedly crashed on the roof of a Moldovan house, with photos of the still intact drone circulating on social media and in local news reports.
The attacks went the other way as well. Ukraine has continued sending drones into Russia, with at least three people killed in a major drone attack on the southern Rostov region.
Ukrainian drones continued to target Russian energy sites and defense infrastructure. Speaking of damage and fires in the city of Taganrog, Moscow Times reports, “Residents reported a fire at a site that Telegram news channels later claimed was an airstrip owned by Beriev Aircraft Company, which manufactures military aircraft. The company’s facilities were reportedly targeted in previous Ukrainian strikes, including twice in 2024 and in July this year.”
“Ukraine’s military said later on Tuesday that it targeted the Beriev Aircraft Company, while also claiming it had struck the Atlant-Aero drone plant in Taganrog,” the report continues.
There are reports that more oil refineries and energy sites in Russia were hit in Ukraine’s overnight cross-border drone attack. Small drones have proven able to slip past Russia’s anti-air defenses time and again.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
They’ve Learned Nothing… Because That Would Expose Too Much
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Roger Bate via The Brownstone Institute,
The UK Covid-19 Inquiry has finally released the core political chapters of its long-awaited report. After nearly three years of hearings, millions of documents, and tens of millions of pounds spent on legal fees, the conclusion is now unmistakably clear.
They’ve learned nothing, as I detail in my latest research.
Worse, they may not want to learn.
The Inquiry’s structure, its analytical frame, even its carefully curated narrative all point in the same direction: away from the possibility that Britain’s pandemic response was fundamentally misguided, and toward the politically safer claim that ministers simply “acted too late.”
On November 20, 2025, Jay Bhattacharya captured this perfectly in a single sentence on X: “Fact check; not locking down at all (like Sweden) would have saved lives in UK. Hard to believe how much money the UK spent on its sham covid inquiry.” That tweet was provocative—but it was also accurate in its diagnosis of the Inquiry’s deeper pathologies.
The Inquiry’s Central Mistake: Asking the Wrong Question
From the outset, the Inquiry has framed Britain’s pandemic response as a timing problem. Lockdowns were assumed to be necessary and effective; the only question was whether politicians implemented them quickly enough. The result is a dry recitation of process failures and personality clashes inside Downing Street, all of which are said to have delayed the inevitable “stay-at-home” order.
But that framing was never neutral. It was baked into the Inquiry’s analytical choices—especially its uncritical reliance on the same family of models that drove the UK into lockdown in March 2020.
The centerpiece of that modeling tradition is Imperial College London’s Report 9, the document that forecast hundreds of thousands of UK deaths absent stringent lockdowns. That report assumed near-homogeneous mixing, limited voluntary behavior change, and high fatality rates across the population. Under those assumptions, lockdown becomes not a political choice but a mathematical necessity.
The Inquiry has now rerun the same machinery and, unsurprisingly, produced the same conclusion.
Its headline claim—that delaying lockdown by a week caused roughly 23,000 additional deaths—is not a historical finding. It is not based on observational data. It is simply the output of an Imperial-style model with a different start date.
The Inquiry has restated the model, not tested it.
The Evidence They Chose Not to See
The Inquiry’s blindness becomes fully apparent when we ask the obvious comparative question: if the lockdown paradigm were correct, what would we expect to see among countries that refused to lock down?
We would expect chaos. We would expect mass hospital collapse. We would expect mortality catastrophes to dwarf the UK.
We would expect, in short, to see Sweden in ruins.
Instead, we see the opposite.
Sweden kept primary schools open, avoided stay-at-home orders, relied heavily on voluntary behavior, and preserved civil liberties throughout the pandemic. After correcting early care-home errors, Sweden recorded one of the lowest age-adjusted excess mortality rates in Europe.
The Swedish experience is not a footnote. It is not an “exception.” It is the control case—the real-world test of the lockdown paradigm.
And it falsifies it.
A serious Inquiry would have begun with Sweden. It would have asked why a country that rejected lockdowns achieved better mortality outcomes than Britain while preserving education, normal life, and basic freedoms. It would have integrated that evidence into every chapter. It would have examined whether voluntary behavior changes, targeted protection, and risk-based messaging can substitute for mass coercion.
Instead, Sweden is barely mentioned. When it appears at all, it is described as an anomaly. The Inquiry behaves as though Sweden is politically inconvenient—not analytically essential.
Because it is.
The Modeling Was Wrong. The Inquiry Can’t Admit It.
If the Inquiry were genuinely interested in learning, it would examine whether the models that drove the UK’s response were flawed. It would review the assumptions underpinning Report 9. It would test them against real-world data from multiple countries. It would commission adversarial modeling groups. It would bring in critics. It would examine alternative frameworks.
It did none of these things.
The behavior of the public is a perfect example. Imperial-style models assume that people remain near-normal in their social contacts without legal mandates. But mobility data, workplace activity, and school attendance show that Britons began adjusting their behavior weeks before Boris Johnson held the lockdown press conference. High-risk individuals adapted earliest. Businesses reacted to perceived risks earlier than the state. Families responded faster than the Cabinet Office.
The models were wrong about behavior.
Yet the Inquiry’s analysis still treats people as if they only respond to orders, not information.
The result is a fantasy counterfactual: a Britain that would have carried on as normal in March 2020 had the government not intervened. That Britain never existed.
Where Is the Cost–Benefit Analysis?
The Inquiry promised to evaluate the “relative benefits and disbenefits” of non-pharmaceutical interventions. It has not done so. There is no integrated accounting of:
- the millions of missed cancer screenings
- the explosion in mental-health morbidity
- the delayed cardiovascular care
- the long-term educational loss from school closures
- the widening inequality gaps
- the years-long damage to the NHS backlog
- the economic scarring that will shorten future lives
Lockdowns always look good when you only count Covid deaths. But public health is cumulative. It is intertemporal. Saving a life today by destroying ten years of someone’s earning power is not a victory.
The Inquiry refuses to engage with these trade-offs. It is easier to condemn “late lockdowns” than to ask whether lockdowns were the wrong tool altogether.
The Real Reason the Inquiry Learned Nothing
The central failure of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry is not analytical. It is institutional.
A real investigation would expose catastrophic judgment errors across the political and scientific establishment. It would show that ministers outsourced strategy to a narrow modeling group. It would reveal that the harms of lockdowns were not only foreseeable but foreseen. It would vindicate critics who were ridiculed or censored. It would anger parents whose children suffered educational harm. It would enrage families whose loved ones died because routine care was suspended. It would shatter public trust in Whitehall and SAGE.
That is precisely what the Inquiry cannot do.
Instead, it offers a politically safe narrative. The strategy was sound. The problem was timing. Ministers were slow. Advisors were frustrated. Downing Street was chaotic. But the solution next time is simple: lock down earlier, lock down harder, lock down smarter.
It is a comforting fairy tale for the people who caused the damage.
The Truth Is Already Clear
Bhattacharya’s November 2025 tweet may have been blunt, but it crystallized what the Inquiry is unwilling to say. Sweden shows that not locking down at all could have saved British lives—not merely reduced collateral damage, but saved lives.
That is the final heresy. And that is why the Inquiry cannot confront it.
Learning would expose too much.
The UK did not simply lock down too late. It locked down unnecessarily. The Inquiry should have been a reckoning. Instead, it became a shield—protecting institutions rather than illuminating truth.
Britain deserved better. The world deserved better.
Until we admit what went wrong, we remain doomed to repeat it.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Jabs declared “weapons of mass destruction” under global law; UK withholding data on “vax” deaths; Bill Gates can’t go to Kenya; and much, much more
50+ new studies & reports make clear that the citadel of lies around the “vax” is crumbling. Until “our free press” spotlights this all-important news, they are all accessories to democide. Period.
| Mark Crispin MillerNov 25 |
International Tribunal Declares Covid Shots ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’ Under Global Law
October 10, 2025
A globally recognized international tribunal has issued a stunning and historic declaration, officially designating Covid mRNA injections as “biological and technological weapons of mass destruction.” The Alliance of Indigenous Nations (AIN) International Tribunal announced that the ruling applies globally under international law.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Anomalous Amyloid Microclots Found in 100% of the COVID-19 Vaccinated
NOV 17, 2025
In a cohort that was 94% vaccinated, every participant had amyloid microclots —the same pathology behind the large white fibrous clots now being pulled from corpses worldwide.
FOCAL POINTS (Courageous Discourse)
BREAKING STUDY: Anomalous Amyloid Microclots Found in 100% of the COVID-19 Vaccinated
by Nicolas Hulscher, MPH…
8 days ago · 536 likes · 215 comments · Nicolas Hulscher, MPH
More Americans claim ‘major side effects’ from COVID-19 vaccine
November 21, 2025
In a new national survey sure to renew concerns about the vaccines forced on the country in late 2020 and 2021, 10% of adults who got the shot said that they were whacked by “major side effects” and another 26% said they suffered minor side effects. All told, that amounts to about 63 million people.
This one is mind-boggling:
“You Can’t Handle the Truth”: UK Health Watchdog Refuses to Release Data on Vaccine Deaths
November 17, 2025
The United Kingdom’s public health service is reportedly refusing to release data on the potential relationship between the COVID vaccine and excess deaths. The reason? It would upset people to know the truth.According to the Telegraph, the agency declared that releasing the data would lead to the “distress or anger” of bereaved relatives if a link were to be discovered. It also suggested that the data might stress or undermine the mental health of the families and friends of people who died. (From constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley)
2.9 Million-Person Study Finds mRNA Shots Increase Risk of Death, Kidney Failure (Dialysis), and Kidney Injury
Nov. 11, 2025
Enormous vaccinated vs. unvaccinated study reveals progressively worsening kidney damage over time with no sign of stopping — and a striking mortality signal among Pfizer recipients. This enormous matched-cohort analysis — spanning nearly three million adults — found that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with worsening kidney outcomes that intensify over time and that Pfizer’s mRNA shot correlates with higher all-cause mortality even after early post-vaccine deaths were excluded.
FOCAL POINTS (Courageous Discourse)
by Nicolas Hulscher, MPH…
14 days ago · 314 likes · 77 comments · Nicolas Hulscher, MPH
The Kenyan High Court has now suspended Bill Gates immunity from Prosecution
Nov. 19, 2025
As detailed in court, the World Health Organization (WHO), an entity heavily funded by Gates, launched a tetanus eradication campaign in Kenya between 2014 and 2015. However, Kenyan doctors and researchers discovered that the vaccine used was radically different. It was reportedly a “fertility-regulating vaccine,” which combined the tetanus toxoid with the hormone Human Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG), essential for sustaining pregnancy. The insidious consequence, as alleged, is that when injected into a woman, her immune system produces antibodies that attack this hormone, effectively resulting in sterilization.
Vax vs. Unvax Study Finally Sees the Light of Day — And the Results Are Staggering
Oct. 13, 2025
Health journalist and film producer Del Bigtree has just released his new film An Inconvenient Study, which follows Bigtree’s years-long exchange with Dr. Marcus Zervos, head of infectious disease at Henry Ford Health in Detroit, a doctor who is about as pro-vaccine as they come. Includes Del Bigtrees just released documentary , “An Inconvenient Study”.
The Vigilant Fox
Bombshell Vax vs. Unvax Study Finally Sees the Light of Day — And the Results Are Staggering
Health journalist and film producer Del Bigtree has just released his new film An Inconvenient Study, which follows Bigtree’s years-long exchange with Dr. Marcus Zervos, head of infectious disease at Henry Ford Health in Detroit, a doctor who is about as pro-vaccine as they come…
a month ago · 667 likes · 117 comments · The Vigilant Fox
First Independent Report Finds Routine Childhood Vaccines a Risk Factor for Autism
Nov. 01, 2025
McCullough Foundation, free of government and bio-pharmaceutical bias breaks through
FOCAL POINTS (Courageous Discourse)
First Independent Report Finds Routine Childhood Vaccines a Risk Factor for Autism
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH…
24 days ago · 184 likes · 19 comments · Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
The Vaccine Empire Collapses: Autism Proven, Pneumococcal Vaccine Disaster, and Gates’ Quantum Dot Implants Exposed
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
URGENT! Weight loss drugs GLP-1 agonists e.g. Mounjaro, Wegovy, Ozempic etc., these are VERY dangerous, I have warned many times DO NOT use these for weight loss, the proper research has NEVER been
done to exclude harms & verify safety as weight loss drugs! The pharma and those peddling this are dangerous people, it is money making for them, be very careful! you are desperate & they prey on you
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 24 |
Robbie Williams has said he fears the weight loss job Mounjaro is ‘making him blind’ after he realised his vision had suddenly become blurry.
‘URGENT! the Dark Side of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists such as Ozempic, Wegovy, semaglutide for Diabetes especially now used as a WEIGHT loss drug? (by Nadine Eckert); In recent months, however, drug
regulatory authorities have also documented rare, occasionally severe side effects associated with the use of these agents in diabetes therapy that doctors may not necessarily been aware of’
It is all a scam, and I credit RFK Jr. prior for being brave to say this too…he may be steroid-ed up (separate debate) but he called on the benefits of exercise, proper nutrition etc. NOT weight loss drugs! praise to him on that!
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Robbie Williams has said he fears the weight loss job Mounjaro is ‘making him blind’ after he realised his vision had suddenly become blurry.
The 51-year-old singer admitted the deteriorating vision is now affecting him on stage, as he struggles to make out the faces of fans to connect during emotional points in his show.
The Take That alum has now said he wants to speak about his experience with the weight loss injections to encourage better research into their side effects before they’re more widely used.
see my prior stacks on this!
I wrote before (see below) about the dangers of Ozempic used in Type 2 diabetes to control blood sugar (Wegovy, semaglutide) that is proving harmful as a weight-loss product! ‘These Women Stopped
These Women Stopped Taking Ozempic and Wegovy, Then Regained More Weight Than They’d Lost: ‘I Was Insatiable’; New weight loss medications like Wegovy and Mounjaro are meant to be taken long-term’…
URGENT! the Dark Side of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists such as Ozempic, Wegovy, semaglutide for Diabetes especially now used as a WEIGHT loss drug? (by Nadine Eckert); In recent months, however, drug
regulatory authorities have also documented rare, occasionally severe side effects associated with the use of these agents in diabetes therapy that doctors may not necessarily been aware of
Wegovy and Ozempic: Scientists raise alarm over potentially deadly side effect from celeb-favorite fat-loss drugs that may have been MISSED in trials; Researchers warn Wegovy and similar drugs
can cause stomach issues. The drugs may enlarge a person’s intestines and lead to critical blockages
END
ShamWow politics! Excellent by Leake praising Massie who really is one of the ONLY Pretorian guards we have in congress, senate! Most are high-crime kleptocrat real-thief cabal bandits! duplicitous!
Leake: “The Representative from Kentucky is virtually alone in Washington in always choosing truth instead of falsehood, principle instead of expediency, and morality instead of power.”
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 24 |
Leake: “If this Republic survives, he will someday be regarded as one of its greatest heroes. President Trump irrevocably besmirched himself and his legacy by attacking Massie because the Congressman from Kentucky has dedicated himself to the release of the Epstein files.”
Massie indeed is a hero of mine. So is MTG, she could be nutty at times and even derailed but it comes from a good place. she means well. she may be bumbling too and fumbling but so is everyone, she is not perfect but she remains among the best in congress. IMO.
These people have distinguished themselves as cutting against the grain, risking.
President Trump and others who wish to eliminate Massie from politics should remember Abraham’s negotiation with God to spare Sodom and Gomorrah. The destruction of these cities should be interpreted as an archetypal reckoning for people who think they can do whatever in hell they want and always get away with it.
Life is often full of ambiguity, but this nation currently finds itself at a moment when the line between good and evil has never been clearer. Everyone in the public forum had better join us on the right side of it or they will soon suffer an ignominious fate.’
END
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1537 UP 0.0017 PTS OR 17 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE IN THE RED
USA/ YEN 156.27 DOWN 0.636 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3135 UP .0030 OR 30 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4111 UP 0.0002 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 33.26 PTS OR 0.82%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 178.05 PTS OR 0.69%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.27%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 178.05 PTS OR 0.49%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.26 POINTS OR 0.87%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.27 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 33.04 PTS OR .07%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4130.00
silver:$51.12
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.95 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.015 % DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.806% UP 3 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.333 UP 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.170 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.409 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6770 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1562 UP 0.0042 OR 42 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.24 DOWN 0.668 OR YEN IS UP 67 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.504 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.322 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.4107
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0849 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0808
TURKISH LIRA: 42.43 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.806 UP 2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.333 UP 2 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.019% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.659 DOWN 3 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.493 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4130.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 51.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 74.62 PTS OR 0.78%
GERMAN DAX: UP 225.45 pts or 0.97%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 66,13 pts or 0.83%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 173.10 pts or 1.08%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 400.49. or 0.95%
WTI Oil price 57.73 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.11 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.78 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 28/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.165 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.743 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1566 UP 0.0047 OR 47 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3173 UP .0067 OR 67 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4960 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.327 DOWN 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.802 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.333 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.10 DOWN 0.804 OR YEN UP 80 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4098 DOWN 0.0012 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 12 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.08
Brent OIL: 62.60
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.005
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 PTS to 4.669%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.465 DOWN 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.151 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.728- DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.78 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.41 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.87 DOWN 0 AND 38/100 roubles //
GOLD $4132.40 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 51.38 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 663.93 OR 0.43 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 144/51 PTS OR 0.58%
VOLATILITY INDEX 18.48 DOWN 2.02 PTS OR 8.94%
GLD: $ 380.08 DOWN 0.12 PTS OR 0.032%
SLV/ $46.67 UP 0.04 PTS OR OR 0.01%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 308.12 PTS OR 1.01%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Dismal Data, Choppy Chipmakers, & A Fed Dove Send Bonds, Stocks, & Gold Higher
WRAP UP;
DATA RELEASES
Core Producer Price Inflation Slowest In 15 Months, But…
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 08:53 AM
Headline Producer Prices rose 0.3% MoM in September (as expected)
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Energy costs were the biggest driver (see below for why that may not be a problem) and Construction saw the smallest rise in prices…
Source: Bloomberg
Core PPI (Ex Food & Energy) rose just 0.1% MoM, bringing Core PPI YoY down to +2.6%…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the lowest YoY print for Core PPI since July 2024.
However, there could be trouble ahead as the pipeline for prices (intermediate demand) is starting to accelerate once again…
Source: Bloomberg
But, there is a silver lining as oil prices have plunged since this data suggesting PPI Final Demand Energy will be dramatically deflating in the coming months…
Source: Bloomberg
So that’s 3 of 3 macro data points this morning that ‘support’ doves at The Fed – lower employment, weaker retail sales, and lower inflation – and rate-cut odds are rising.
end
not good//rate cut?
US Retail Sales Disappoint In September
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 08:38 AM
After two months of nothing, the avalanche of actual government-supplied macro data begins in earnest with Retail Sales (for September). BofA’s omniscient analysts expected a small beat…
But, for once, they were off with headline sales rising just 0.2% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp) but still rising for the 4th straight month…
Source: Bloomberg
On an unadjusted basis, Retail Sales fell significantly MoM (but that appears to be a very seasonal factor)…
Excluding Autos, sales were up 0.3% MoM (in line with expectations) but Ex Autos and Gas it was a disappointment, rising just 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).
Motor Vehicles and Nonstore Retailers saw sales drop the most while Gasoline Stations and Food Services & Drinking sales rose the most…
Perhaps worst of all is the 0.1% MoM decline in the Control Group – which is used in the GDP calculation – considerably worse than the +0.3% MoM expectation…
Source: Bloomberg
Control Group Sales are still up 4.1% YoY however.
Finally, we note that ‘real’ retail sales are higher YoY for the 12th straight month…
More bad news to support Fed rate-cuts?
end
US Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Worst Since Liberation Day
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 10:11 AM
Following the collapse in Current Conditions sentiment among Americans surveyed by UMich, The Conference Board confirms the collapse in confidence this morning with the headline print dropping to 88.7 in November (well below the 93.3 exp) following a small upward revision for October. The slump was led by Expectations (which plunged to 63.2 from 71.8) but the Present situation gauge also fell to 126.9 from 131.2.
Source: Bloomberg
That is the lowest headline sentiment since April (Liberation Day).
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.
“All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions. All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November.
Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”
Under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continues…
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation expectations were flat (but elevated)…
Among demographic groups, confidence continued to improve for consumers under 35 years old, but confidence for consumers age 35 and older dipped, with respondents 55 and over remaining the most downbeat this year.
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”
By income, confidence fell for nearly all cohorts after several months of increasing confidence for most groups.
Consumers earning less than $15K was the only income bracket in which confidence improved in November but remained the least optimistic among all income groups.
Confidence fell among consumers of all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters.
The K-Shaped economy continues with stocks near record highs and sentiment near lows.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
HUGE!!!
Trump Signs Executive Order To Designate Muslim Brotherhood Chapters As Foreign Terrorist
Monday, Nov 24, 2025 – 08:10 PM
Update (2010ET):
A little more than one day after Just The News published John Solomon’s exclusive interview in which President Trump confirmed plans to designate the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), the White House formally announced on Monday evening that the president has initiated the process to classify specific chapters and subdivisions of MB as FTOs.
Trump’s order cites MB’s violent activities and support for militant factions, including participation in attacks on Israeli civilians and military targets after October 7, 2023, as well as calls for violence against U.S. allies. These actions, the order says, threaten American citizens and destabilize the Middle East.
Here’s what Trump ordered:
Within 30 days:
- The Secretaries of State and Treasury must deliver a joint report to the President, recommending which Muslim Brotherhood chapters should be designated under FTO and SDGT authorities.
Within 45 days after the report:
- The Secretary of State or the Treasury must take appropriate legal steps to finalize those designations.
On X, Dr. Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism at the White House, announced, “History has been made.”
“Just moments ago, in the presence of my NSC colleague who helped author the Executive Order, President Trump designated multiple chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood, including the Egyptian branch which is the progenitor of all modern Jihadists, al Qaeda, ISIS and Hamas included,” Gorka said, adding, “As we left the Oval, President Trump explicitly instructed us to inform the World of his tectonic act.”
Seems like these folks do not want to assimilate…
Let’s not forget that former CIA targeting officer Sarah Adams has warned that the Biden-Harris regime’s open southern border allowed an estimated “10,000 foreign Islamist terrorists” to enter the country.
* * *
John Solomon’s Just The News reports, in an exclusive interview with President Trump on Sunday morning, that the president will formally designate the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as a foreign terrorist organization.
Trump explained that the MB’s FTO designation will be imminent and drafted “in the strongest and most powerful terms,” adding, “Final documents are being drawn.”
MB was founded in Egypt nearly a century ago with branches across the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the U.S. The org has been outlawed or labeled a terrorist group by several governments, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.
Trump has weighed the FTO designation since his first term, and his comments come days after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton designated the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) as an FTO and transnational criminal organization.
Abbott’s proclamation authorized “heightened penalties” against CAIR and the Muslim Brotherhood and prohibited both entities from acquiring land in Texas, alleging that CAIR had “repeatedly employed, affiliated with, and supported individuals promoting terrorism-related activities.”
GOP officials, including Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), have requested that the Treasury Department probe CAIR’s financial networks.
In August, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the FTO designation was being prepared, though the process is complex because of MB’s sprawling network of affiliates.
Bipartisan lawmakers in both chambers have urged Rubio and the State Department to move forward with the FTO designations. Sen. Ted Cruz has warned that MB supports terrorist orgs such as Hamas.
As we’ve previously reported:
- The Shadow Of Terror: Zohran Mamdani’s Radical Islam Problem
- Report Warns “Woke Army” & Dark-Money Funded NGOs Could Take Iran’s War “To America’s Streets”
“To this day, the IRS hasn’t stripped Muslim Brotherhood 501 (c) (3) s of their tax-deductible status. Jihadi is getting a tax deduction on U.S. soil,” Laura Loomer wrote on X while responding to Solomon’s exclusive interview earlier today.
Oh boy…
Things are about to get very interesting.
Muslim Brotherhood Leader: Will Push Sharia Law in America “By Ballot or Bullet” …
END
The Decline Of Developed Nations’ Fiat Money
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 07:20 AM
Governments assume they can print as much currency as they like and it will be accepted by force. However, the history of fiat currencies is always the same: first governments exceed their credit limits, then ignore all the warning signs and finally see the currency collapse.
Today, we are living the decline of developed economies’ fiat currencies in real time. The global reserve system is slowly but decisively diversifying away from a pure fiat currency anchor towards a mixed regime where gold plays the dominant role, not fiat currencies.
IMF COFER data show that, while the US dollar still dominates, its share of reported reserves has drifted down towards the high 50s. Gold has overtaken the US dollar and euro as the main asset in central banks for the first time in 40 years.
There is a reason for this historic change. Developed economies have surpassed all their limits to indebtedness.
Public debt is currency issuance, and the credibility of developed nations as issuers is fading fast. It started when the ECB, the Fed and major global central banks reported large losses. Their asset base was yielding negative returns as inflation and solvency issues became evident. Mainstream economists and governments dismissed these losses as insignificant, yet they demonstrated the extreme risk associated with the asset purchases made in previous years.
Inflation is a form of de facto gradual default on issued obligations, and global central banks are avoiding the debt of developed nations because they see a deterioration in the fiscal and inflationary outlook. Sovereign debt is not a reserve asset anymore.
Global public debt has reached about 102 trillion dollars, a new historical record, well above pre‑pandemic levels and close to the peaks hit during the most aggressive monetary expansion. Sovereign debt has driven this phenomenal rise, with countries like France and the United States running enormous annual deficits in non-crisis periods. Bidenomics in the United States was the clearest evidence of imprudent fiscal policy, running record deficits and increasing spending by more than two trillion US dollars in a period of strong economic recovery.
How did this loss of confidence happen? Monetary sovereign nations do not have an unlimited ability to issue currency and debt. They have clear limits that, when surpassed, generate an immediate loss of global confidence. Developed economies have breached the three limits, especially since 2021:
The economic limit is reached when ever-higher debt leads to a decrease in marginal growth. Government spending has bloated GDP, but productivity has stalled and net real wages are stagnant or declining.
The fiscal limit arises from the crowding out of productive investment by interest expense and entitlement spending. Despite financial repression, low rates, and monetary stimulus, interest expenses are taking up larger portions of developed nations’ budgets, making financing government obligations more expensive, even as the annualised CPI moderates.
The inflationary limit is reached as repeated monetary financing of government spending erodes confidence in the purchasing power of fiat money and cumulative inflation outpaces real wages, creating an affordability crisis.
The recent combination of high nominal debt, rising interest expense, and structural fiscal deficits in major advanced economies proves this crossing of all limits.
Central banks understand fiat money and know that sovereign debt is not the safe asset that provides stability and real economic returns anymore. Thus, they have responded with an unprecedented wave of gold purchases. Net official buying exceeded 1,100 tonnes in 2022 and remained above 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024, more than double the annual average between 2010 and 2021. By 2024, central banks officially purchased 1,045 tonnes of gold, marking the third consecutive year above the 1,000‑tonne level and extending a 15‑year streak of net additions. However, unofficial purchases are estimated to be significantly larger. Surveys show that around a third of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the coming years, and more than four‑fifths expect global official gold holdings to keep rising due to concerns over persistent inflation, financial stability, and solvency issues.
The record gold demand is a direct answer to the lack of confidence in the sustainability of fiat liabilities issued by over‑indebted sovereigns. Gold has no default risk and no central bank control, making it a suitable investment when central banks themselves doubt the long‑term credibility of large nations’ currencies.
Many reserve managers believe that the way governments are heavily increasing their money supply during crises, along with only slow returns to normal policies, means that inflation and financial control are now permanent parts of the system instead of just temporary fixes. Thus, purchasing gold reserves is an insurance policy against the gradual taxation of savers through negative real yields and inflation.
Such an outcome does not mean an imminent collapse of the US dollar nor a dedollarisation process, but an unquestionable loss of confidence in fiat currencies altogether, from the euro and the pound to the yen and the US dollar. Indeed, the US dollar remains the dominant fiat currency, accounting for 89% of global transactions and holding 57% of global reserves. But it leads a declining empire of fake money.
Investors and central banks are moving to a hybrid reserve order in which fiat currencies coexist with a structurally higher allocation to gold but also a rising use of decentralised cryptocurrencies.
Some central banks are in panic. The ECB aims to enforce the use of the euro by implementing a central bank digital currency, but this misguided approach reflects both desperation and a desire for control. The Fed and the US government are incentivising stablecoins backed by Treasury bonds as a way of boosting demand for the dollar. This seems a better idea than imposition and repression, especially when the US government seems focused on reducing the deficit and debt. However, if the US government does not accelerate measures to reduce debt through growth policies and spending cuts, the confidence in the currency may weaken fast.
No government in advanced economies wants to cut spending, except perhaps the US administration, which is doing so modestly, despite evidence indicating a loss of confidence in its solvency. With economies facing government debt ratios above 100 percent of GDP, persistent primary deficits, and political resistance to serious spending cuts, fiat currency issuers are likely to remain trapped beyond economic, fiscal, and inflationary limits.
We are living through a historical monetary change that will have long-term implications. Global central banks have stopped believing in paper promises and demand real money. The first nation to adopt sound money and fiscal policies will win. The rest will lose.
END
The Uproar Over 4 Dollar Fries Shows Just How Severely America’s Standard Of Living Has Eroded
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 12:50 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Once upon a time potatoes were what the poorest people in society would eat because they were so inexpensive. But now we are being charged an average of $4.19 for a carton of medium fries at McDonald’s. There are many that are very upset about the rapidly rising cost of fries, and this is yet another example that shows that our standard of living is being absolutely shredded. As costs rise, the labor market just continues to get even weaker. So we are being hit with much higher prices at the same time that paychecks are stagnating and mass layoffs are occurring all over the nation. So what is going to happen to our standard of living if these trends continue to intensify during the months ahead?
By about a two to one margin, middle-income Americans feel like their financial situations have gotten worse over the past year…
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed that 44% of middle-income respondents said their financial situation was worse than it was a year ago, while 23% said it was better, based on a three-month average ending in September. Those who feel worse off overwhelmingly said it was because of higher prices.
Federal bureaucrats continue to insist that inflation is low, but everyone can see that is simply not true.
Compared to the year just prior to the pandemic, so many of the things that Americans regularly spend money on have gone up dramatically.
During a recent segment on Fox Business, viewers were shown how much some of the most popular menu items at McDonald’s increased in price from 2019 to 2024…
McDonald’s Price Increases from 2019 to 2024:
Medium French Fry $1.79 -> $4.19
McChicken $1.29 -> $3.89
Big Mac $3.99 -> $7.49
10 McNuggets $4.49 -> $7.58
Cheeseburger $1.00 -> $3.15Some of this is over a 200% increase in price. This isn’t inflation — it’s legalized robbery.
$4.19 for a carton of medium fries is obscene!
For years, many of us warned that the very foolish decisions that our leaders were making would lead to very painful inflation.
Needless to say, that is precisely what happened.
A cheeseburger at McDonald’s is now more than three times as expensive as it was in 2019.
How are young families supposed to afford that?
How is anyone supposed to afford that?
We have never seen the price of cheeseburgers go up so rapidly.
Not even during the Carter administration did we see this sort of “burger inflation”.
Unfortunately, this is just the beginning, because the size of the U.S. cattle herd has dropped to the lowest level in about 75 years…
Tyson Foods will close a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, with about 3,200 employees in January after U.S. cattle supplies dropped to their lowest level in nearly 75 years, the meatpacker said on Friday.
The closure in the heart of cattle-feeding country signaled that supplies will remain tight, forcing meatpackers to pay steep prices for cattle to process into steaks and hamburgers.
You may think that you will just switch to turkey.
Well, the price of a frozen turkey is 40 percent higher than it was last year…
The USDA recently projected that wholesale prices for frozen whole turkey hens will reach $1.32 per pound in 2025. That’s a 40 percent increase from 2024’s price of 94 cents per pound.
“The 2025 rise in price is a response to lower production with HPAI pressures combined with steady demand,” according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation.
When talking heads on television tell us that “inflation is low”, I just want to scream.
Since 2019, the annual income needed to afford a median-priced home in rural U.S. counties has more than doubled…
Homeowners need an annual income of $74,508 to afford a median-priced home in rural U.S. counties, up a staggering 105.8% from before the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, rural buyers only needed to earn $36,206, according to Redfin’s analysis, which compares the third quarter of 2025 with the third quarter of 2019.
The income needed to afford a median-priced home in suburban counties rose 90.9% to $102,120 during that same period. Previously, potential buyers only needed an annual salary of $53,482. The income needed to afford a home in urban counties climbed 87.5% to $118,300. Buyers needed an annual salary of $63,103 prior to the pandemic.
Take a close look at those numbers again.
They are completely and utterly outrageous.
Let me ask you a question.
Has your income doubled since 2019?
If not, you are falling behind.
Vehicle prices have soared into unprecedented territory too…
Car prices are trending up and the average cost of a new car is at an all-time high, approaching the $50,000 mark for the first time.
The average transaction price for a new vehicle in October was $49,105, according to data from Edmunds.
In the old days, you could buy an entire house for $50,000.
But now thanks to the widespread adoption of “planned obsolescence”, $50,000 will just get you a “new vehicle” that has been designed to start breaking down shortly after the warranty expires.
Meanwhile, the employment market just keeps getting weaker and weaker.
At this point even the government is admitting that the unemployment rate just reached the highest level that we have seen since the early days of the last pandemic.
Young people are being hit particularly hard, and we are being told that this is the toughest market for college graduates in a very long time…
Rising youth unemployment could be an “early indicator that the economy is slowing down or maybe even heading towards a recession,” said Anders Humlum, assistant professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
A college degree is often considered the best pathway to a well-paying job, but that may no longer be as true as it once was, experts say.
“For the first time in modern history, a bachelor’s degree is no longer a reliable path to professional employment,” Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, told CNBC.
I feel very badly for college graduates that are searching for work in this very tough environment.
In fact, I feel very badly for anyone that is searching for work in this very tough environment.
Nobody can deny that economic activity is slowing down all around us…
There are not as many goods moving around the country. Ship counts from Asia to the US are down roughly 30% from last year. Railcar loadings are down roughly 6% against last year. The trucking industry also continues to see shrinking capacity. If there are fewer things to move around the country, then the industry will likewise need fewer drivers, loaders, and various workers. Idle trains and empty containers don’t need a lot of people to mind them.
When less stuff is being moved around the country, that means that the economy is slowing down.
We can all feel it.
Looking ahead, an alarmingly high percentage of Americans are convinced that they will be even worse off next year…
A report by Primerica found that in the third quarter of 2025, just 21% of middle-income Americans believe they’ll be better off financially in the next year, while 34% believe they’ll be worse off and 33% expect their situation to remain the same.
Those figures are notably more pessimistic than the firm’s data from the third quarter of 2020 showed, when 33% of middle-income Americans thought they would be better off financially in the next year versus just 17% who thought they would be worse off and 40% expected they would be about the same.
The mood of the entire country has changed dramatically.
I have heard from so many people that have cut back everywhere that they can, but it still isn’t enough.
Even many households that are bringing in six figure incomes have shifted into survival mode…
The effort to keep up with higher prices feels relentless to Teri Kopp, who lives in Southbury, Conn., and works as an administrator at a synagogue. “I’m tired,” she said.
Kopp and her husband Bill, an HVAC technician, earn a combined $115,000 a year. They often sit in the dark with only strings of LED lights on to save on electric costs. She is considering painting rocks to send to friends as Christmas gifts. Their biggest vacation this year, a road trip to Maine, was mostly covered by cash back from a shopping-rewards program.
Kopp, 59 years old, doesn’t see any way to quickly pay off the $15,000 in credit-card debt the family took on largely to cover medical bills for knee surgeries. She also has $30,000 in debt from her daughter’s undergraduate degree in biology, which has yet to yield any job offers in a tough labor market for new graduates.
It took a long time for us to get here.
We borrowed and spent tens of trillions of dollars that we did not have, and the Federal Reserve just kept shoveling more cash into the financial system.
As a result, the cost of living is out of control and our system is reaching a breaking point.
Our leaders kept kicking the can down the road, but in the process they kept making our long-term problems even worse.
Now a carton of medium fries is more than 4 dollars, and America’s middle class is being systematically destroyed.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
END
Consumer Strain Moves Beyond Low-Income Into Heart Of Middle Class
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 01:45 PM
Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane provided clients with a summary of key takeaways from her meetings with the investor-relations and management teams of Bath & Body Works, BJ’s Wholesale Club, The Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma.
McShane noted that nearly every retailer warned of weak consumer demand, especially among squeezed lower-income households.
Low to middle-income consumers remain fragile, value-driven, and cautious ahead of the holiday shopping season that begins Friday.
One commentary that stood out the most came from Advance Auto Parts.
She noted, “They’re seeing lower- to middle-income consumers decrease their spending across general merchandise.”
Here’s the breakdown:
McShane’s note reinforces our earlier consumer notes, showing a clear tale of two worlds: one where wealthy households remain healthy, while working-class consumers bear the brunt of financial strain.
- A Tale Of Two Consumer Worlds – Captured In A Survey
- A Tale Of Two Consumer Worlds – Captured In A Single Chart
- Early Warning Indicator Signals Sharp Sentiment Deterioration Among Low-Income Consumers, Gen Z
- “Worst Consumer Sentiment In Decades”: Goldman Goes Defcon 1 On Imploding US Consumer
The Trump administration has moved quickly to counter the downturn facing lower-income households, rolling out Operation Affordability in recent weeks.
ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual place, which includes much more commentary on consumer health.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 25, 2025 Issue 7626 | Independent View of the News |
| @charliebilello: Now a 79% probability of a rate cut in December, up from 42% a week ago. Stocks love easy money: S&P 500 +1%, Nasdaq 100 +1.7%, Mag 7 +2.5%. (On NY Fed Pres Williams last week) https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1992976947081564519 All it took was a 5% pullback in the S&P 500 to set the plunge protection team in motion. (Williams’ rate cut remarks) It’s a stock market that’s become addicted to easy money. With inflation where it is (4%/year over last 5 years) the Fed should be hiking rates, not cutting. They have lost all credibility. https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1991863404810940702 Fed’s Waller Calls for December Rate Cut, Then Meeting by Meeting – BBG 8:15 ET Waller has been sucking up to Trump for months via rate cut remarks in a quest to become Fed Chair. Traders great and small poured into Fangs and related trading sardines early on Monday for the post-expiry rally and the Monday Rally plus upward Thanksgiving Week bias plus renewed AI euphoria. Google was +18.90 (+6.3%) at 10:08 ET. Google is the new Nvidia. Google hit 311.90 at 11:58 ET and bounced via the afternoon rally. Google peaked at 319.48 (+19.51, +6.6%) at 15:56 ET and Tesla hit +7.7% at 14:12 ET because: Musk Says Company Close to AI5 Chip – BBG 10:12 ET DJTA stocks were sold; USZs rallied modestly; precious metals rallied modestly. Wall Street barkers gleefully proclaimed that the yearend rally and/or Santa Rally was already commencing! The DJIA was up 167 points by 9:35 ET but quickly sank to -137.27 at 9:50 ET. The index then jumped to +246.72 at 10:45 ET. Merck was +3.23 at the time; Amazon was +2.55; IBM was +2.03%. ESZs opened sharply higher on Sunday night for the reasons we noted. They traded sideways until a modest rally appeared after the 3 ET European opening. After hitting 6669.50 at 4:02 ET, the pro dump appeared; ESZs sank to 6625.00 at 4:30 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs went inert until the rally fo the US opening commenced near the 7 ET US repo market opening. ESZs were very choppy from the NYSE opening until they broke higher when the 2nd hour of NYSE trading began. Thereafter, ESZs traded/rallied in concert with the resurrected AI madness. ESZs effectively traded sideways from 12:30 ET until the close. Near 14:55 ET, SF Fed President Daly said she favors a rate cut in December due to soft labor markets. The uber-liber Daly insinuated that ‘managing an inflation breakout is easier than fixing a soft labor market. This is historically wrong! But her mentor, Gene Wagner, was reportedly a Marxist. Apple Cuts Jobs Across Its Organization in Rate Layoff – BBG 14:36 ET Positive aspects of previous session AI exuberance returned; AI-related stocks soared. USZs rallied moderately and were +15/32 at the NYSE close. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals rallied sharply. The DJTA lagged the equity rally. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How can anyone say there is no AI bubble? Yes, most solons belief investors are gullible. First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6683.86 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6715.75; 6630.70 BEA cancels Q3 advanced GDP estimate, reschedules Sept. PCE report https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bea-cancels-q3-advanced-gdp-estimate-reschedules-sept-pce-report/ar-AA1R3T4H Per the WSJ yesterday: AI-related investments account for half of GDP growth. Headaches grow as AI-related investment drives 50% of US GDP growth in H1 2025 AI is now carrying the entire economy, and the scale of it is no longer something anyone can brush aside… “It’s the only source of investment right now.” And the spending is massive. Bank of America estimates that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta will pour $344 billion into capital expenditures this year, about 1.1% of GDP, up from $228 billion last year… AI spending added 0.8 percentage points to output in the first half of the year. GDP growth stood at 1.6%. Without AI, it would’ve been 0.8%… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/headaches-grow-as-ai-related-investment-drives-50-of-us-gdp-growth-in-h1-2025/ar-AA1R3vS8 Google hit 327.10 at 17:55 ET on a report that Meta will use its chips. Google has doubled in price over the past 5 months. Yet, Fed officials, tech CEOs, and others see no evidence of an AI Bubble! Today – Fed officials rushed out the past few sessions to advocate for rate cuts before the Fed blackout begins on December 1. NO Fed speakers scheduled for today or the rest of the week. So, no ‘rate cut’ on tape to spark algo buying. The fact that ESZs and the NY Fang+ Index soared during NYSE morning trading but then went flat into the NYSE close implies traders got absurdly euphoric but there is still a lack of organic buyers. Traders are likely to but AI-related stocks early again. However, astute traders will not wait too long before they dump if there are few organic buyers in the market. The 2nd Hour Indicator should be useful. If stocks rally smartly in the first hour, any downside breach during the 2nd hour would be bad. ESZs and NQZs rallied to modest gains on the Meta- Google AI chip report. However, the rallies were quickly rescinded. This is a negative for today. ESZs are -0.50; NQZs are -5.50; Dec AU is +31.70; and USZs are -1/32 at 20:30 ET. Expected econ data: Sept Retail Sales 0.4% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.3%, Ex-Autos & gas 0.3%; Sep PPI 0.3% m/m &2.6% y/y, Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Sept FHFA House Price Index 0.1% m/m; Sept S&P Cotality 20-city home prices 0.1% m/m & 1.4% y/y; Nov Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -4; Nov Conference Board Consumer Confidence 93.4; Oct Pending Home Sales 0.1% m/m S&P Index 50-day MA: 6713; 100-day MA: 6552; 150-day MA: 6331; 200-day MA: 6166 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,666; 100-day MA: 45,747; 150-day MA: 44,560; 200-day MA: 43,906 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6705.12 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5687.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6770.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6665.52 triggers a sell signal Dem Senator Mark Kelly (AZ) is in serious legal jeopardy via military justice – and there are no Obama or Biden appointed justices or Dem-packed grand juries to save him. @DeptofWar: The Department of War has received serious allegations of misconduct against Captain Mark Kelly, USN (Ret.). In accordance with the Uniform Code of Military Justice, 10 U.S.C. § 688, and other applicable regulations, a thorough review of these allegations has been initiated to determine further actions, which may include recall to active duty for court-martial proceedings or administrative measures. This matter will be handled in compliance with military law, ensuring due process and impartiality. Further official comments will be limited, to preserve the integrity of the proceedings. The Department of War reminds all individuals that military retirees remain subject to the UCMJ for applicable offenses, and federal laws such as 18 U.S.C. § 2387 prohibit actions intended to interfere with the loyalty, morale, or good order and discipline of the armed forces. Any violations will be addressed through appropriate legal channels. All servicemembers are reminded that they have a legal obligation under the UCMJ to obey lawful orders and that orders are presumed to be lawful. A servicemember’s personal philosophy does not justify or excuse the disobedience of an otherwise lawful order. @Osint613: Kelly appeared in a viral video on November 19-20, 2025 with several Democratic veteran lawmakers urging U.S. troops to reject any “illegal orders,” especially those they suggested could come from the incoming Trump administration. Ex-CIA operative @T_S_P_O_O_K_Y: These allegations are serious and real… @CaptMarkKelly – you all always say: No One Is Above the Law… You are not above the law… Sec of War @PeteHegseth: The video made by the “Seditious Six” was despicable, reckless, and false. Encouraging our warriors to ignore the orders of their Commanders undermines every aspect of “good order and discipline.” Their foolish screed sows doubt and confusion — which only puts our warriors in danger. Five of the six individuals in that video do not fall under @DeptofWar. jurisdiction (one is CIA and four are former military but not “retired”, so they are no longer subject to UCMJ). However, Mark Kelly (retired Navy Commander) is still subject to UCMJ—and he knows that. As announced, the Department is reviewing his statements and actions, which were addressed directly to all troops while explicitly using his rank and service affiliation—lending the appearance of authority to his words. Kelly’s conduct brings discredit upon the armed forces and will be addressed appropriately. Punch Bowl News: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who will retire from Congress in 42 days, announced the end of her House career Friday night in a manifesto, of sorts, that sounded many of the notes of concern we hear about President Donald Trump’s second term. Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican: “This entire White House team has treated ALL members like garbage. ALL. And Mike Johnson has let it happen because he wanted it to happen. That is the sentiment of nearly all — appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file. The arrogance of this White House team is off putting to members who are run roughshod and threatened. They don’t even allow little wins like announcing small grants or even responding from agencies. Not even the high profile, the regular rank and file random members are more upset than ever. Members know they are going into the minority after the midterms. “More explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.” https://punchbowl.news/archive/112425-am/ @AFpost: Susie Wiles reportedly on the hot seat as Trump’s Chief of Staff, with changes in January up in the air. Admin staffers, powerful Trump donors, consultants, and the MAGA base have singled out Wiles for siloing Trump away from his supporters, causing displeasure. (Clinton) Judge dismisses federal cases against Comey, Letitia James, rules prosecutor unlawfully appointed – The prosecutor, Lindsey Halligan, was appointed by Attorney General Pam Bondi https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/judge-dismisses-federal-cases-against-comey-letitia-james-rules-prosecutor @willchamberlain: DOJ, again, explained why Judge Currie should have been more cautious. Any interpretation of the statute that would grant the District Court exclusive authority to appoint a US Attorney runs headlong into the separation of powers. The prosecutorial function belongs to the executive branch. This opinion will be reversed. The Supreme Court has indicated in a slew of cases over the past year that the unitary executive isn’t a “theory” – it’s the Constitution, and interpretations of statutes that purport to confiscate executive authority and give it to actors uncontrolled by the President don’t pass constitutional muster. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Vindman Brothers, Who Helped Impeach Trump In 2020, Are Now Under Investigation
Monday, Nov 24, 2025 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,
Rep. Eugene Vindman, D-Va., and his twin brother Alexander are reportedly under investigation for illegally acting as “paid brokers” for U.S. defense firms seeking business in Ukraine.
“Pentagon General Counsel Earl Matthews alleges that Vindman and his twin brother Alex did not have approval from the U.S. government before seeking to act as ‘paid brokers’ for American defense firms pursuing contracts with Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion,” the Washington Post revealed over the weekend, citing a Nov. 19 letter for War Secretary Pete Hegseth.
“The letter does not explicitly allege the Vindmans received money from the Ukrainian government, arguing only that they “did not insulate themselves from the requirements of federal law,” the Post added.
Eugene Vindman confirmed the investigation Friday on Twitter/X. He claimed it’s politically motivated in response to his calls for the White house to release the transcript of a recent call between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
“Instead of transparency, I was met with retaliation,” Vindman claimed.
However, the Trump administration has signaled that it may investigate since before Trump took office. Last November, billionaire Elon Musk accused Alexander Vindman of treason.
“Vindman is on the payroll of Ukrainian oligarchs and has committed treason against the United States, for which he will pay the appropriate penalty,” Musk said in November on his platform, Twitter/X.
Politico revealed in 2023 that that Alex Vindman is heading a group called Trident Support, which wants to send American military contractors to Ukraine. According to the documents, Vindman, who is of Ukrainian origin, is seeking $12 million for his project—$2 million for “initial operating capability” and another $10 million for “full operating.”
While such a scheme may not be illegal, it demonstrates that the Vindman brothers are war profiteers who benefit from an escalation in Ukraine.
Before President Joe Biden left office, Alexander’s wife vented about the administration not pardoning her husband.
“Whatever happens to my family, know this: No pardons were offered or discussed,” said the wife, Rachel Vindman, in January. “I cannot begin to describe the level of betrayal and hurt I feel.”
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
END
Why Did Democrats Suddenly Go Quiet On Epstein Files?
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Why did Democrats suddenly go quiet on the Epstein files?
Democrats whipped themselves into a frenzy trying to manufacture a “gotcha” moment for President Trump and the GOP over the Epstein files.
According to Bloomberg data, the headline count in MSM for “Epstein” erupted on the day when President Trump signed a spending bill to reopen the federal government after Democrats caved. This was nothing more than a headline deflection by Democrats.
But in recent days, the Epstein story count in MSM has fallen off a cliff. You don’t hear much from the Democrats who chanted “release the files” every day …
That’s because the Democrats’ ongoing information war to delegitimize the president backfired, and the unhinged left fell silent once their colleagues’ coordination with Epstein, Democrat fundraisers, and other politically displeasing headlines started emerging.
- Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 ‘Get Trump’ Hearing
- Democrats’ Epstein Email Dump Backfires As Trump Sets DoJ On Clinton, Summers, Hoffman, Et Al.
- $1.2 Billion Suspicious Epstein Transactions? Wyden Demands Investigation After JP Morgan Failed To Report For Years
- Democrat Plaskett Digs Deeper Grave On Epstein Ties
Democrats did get the headlines they wanted:
And a recent Politico report cited a White House official who stated, “The Democrats are going to come to regret this.”
END
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
