DEC 1//ANOTHER STELLAR DAY FOR OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED UP $22.75 TO $4242.54 WITH SILVER AGAIN THE STAR OF THE SHOW UP ANOTHER $2.21 TO $58.65//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $1.15 TO $1666.60 WITH PALLADIUM UP ANOTHER $13.10 TO $1453.40//GOLD COMMENTARY RE: ALASDAIR MACLEOD//CHINESE OUTLOOK FOR SILVER COURTESY OF ROBERT LAMBORNE//BITCOIN COMMENTARY TONIGHT//THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY OTHER THAN SILVER’S RISE IS THE HUGE JUMP IN JAPANESE YIELDS//JAPANESE YIELD CARRY TRADE NOW DEMOLISHED//EUROPE UPDATES; GERMANY/KOLBE:CAPITAL FLIGHT FROM GERMANY/ISRAEL VS HAMAS//ISRAEL TBN 2 VIDEOS/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER//OIL UPDATES/VENEZUELA UPDATES/USA DATA RELEASES WEAK USA MANUFACTURING//TWO IMPORTANT ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS ALEX NEWMAN.//
072 C GOLDMAN 25 072 H GOLDMAN 42 092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 350 099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 433 104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 11 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 223 100 118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 276 132 C SG AMERICAS 37 167 C MAREX 17 2 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 191 323 H HSBC 3333 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 414 363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 15 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 135 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1037 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 998 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 144 2052 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 20 10 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 4
DLV615-T CME CLEARING BUSINESS DATE: 11/28/2025 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 11/28/2025 PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:26:04 709 C BARCLAYS 47 730 C PTG DIVISION OF SGAS 2 732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 70 800 C MAREX SPEC 1 880 H CITIGROUP 133 905 C ADM 20 3
TOTAL: 5,074 5,074 MONTH TO DATE: 23,970
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 2052/23,720
DECEMBER
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 5074 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 507,400 OZ or 74.556 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,970 contracts for 2,397,000 OR 74.556 tonnes)
FOR DEC
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SILVER NOTICES: 975 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4.876 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8305 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 41.525 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $22.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $2.21 AT THE SLV:
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ //A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 501.890. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 436 CONTRACTS TO 151,360,AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH GAIN OF $3.28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING. THE SHORT SPECULATORS WERE AGAIN CAUGHT RED HANDED AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO COVER THEIR POSITIONS AT A GREAT LOSS WITH THE RISING SILVER PRICE. THE FRBNY ALSO COVERED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. OTHER CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO GO TO THE LONG SIDE
WE HAVE REVERTED BACK TO NORMAL WITH THE SPECS NOW GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND THE BANKER (FRBNY) ON THE SHORT SIDE AND PROVIDING THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. IT IS OUR SILVER SPECULATORS THAT WERE PILING INTO THE SILVER COMEX WITH RECKLACE ABANDON. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, AND NOW TRYING TO SURPASS OUR LAST MAJOR HURDLE OF $50.00 SILVER AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 576 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A SMALL 150 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING AND FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $50.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED MISERABLY ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S MAMMOTH GAIN IN PRICE. THE PRICE FINISHED STILL A BIT ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $50.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $56.44 UP $3.28 . WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS AT A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1747 T.A.S. CONTRACTS (BUT STILL DOWN FROM THE MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 5,000 PLUS CONTRACT ISSUANCE DURING NOVEMBER)!!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING AGAIN THE 50.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A SMALL 150 SIZED CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 1747 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//RAIDS LIKE TODAY AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A FAIR SIZED 286 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.28. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING FRIDAY AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE NEWBIE SPECULATOR SHORTS WERE BURIED ON THE PRICE RISE AS EASTERN CENTRAL BANKER WENT TO THE LONG SIDE. THEY WILL TENDER FOR THE BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL SILVER. THE SHORT SPECS WILL NOW HAVE DIFFICULTY FINDING THE NECESSARY SILVER TO DELIVER TO OUR LONGS.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 1747 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 1.865 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 51.185 MILLION OZ//
WE HAD:
/ MEGA GOOD COMEX OI LOSS+// A 150 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A MEGA HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1747 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A HUGE 862 CONTRACTS!!!!!
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC.. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV.
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAY(S), total 820 contracts: OR 4.100 MILLION OZ (410 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.100 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
AN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 4.100 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 426 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL 150 SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE : 150 ISSUED FOR MARCH, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 9 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 1.865 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 2//STANDING ADVANCES TO 51.185 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1747) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!!
WE HAD 975 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 4.875 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON A MASSIVE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 12,119 OI CONTRACTS DOWN TO 419,484 OI AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A RELATIVELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL AND CRIMINAL 641 CONTRACTS // MEGA HUGE GOVERNMENT REMOVALS//
WE HAD A HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI (12,119 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $51.85 IN PRICE// FRIDAY///.
LAST 8 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY THROUGH TO NOVEMBER/DECEMBER)
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 343 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES/
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING DECEMBER GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 2900 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 419,484 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A SMALL COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. QUITE STRANGE
SILVER ALSO HAS A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 151,360 CONTRACTS
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9219 CONTRACTS WITH 12,119 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 2900 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF9219 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1312 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON. THE MEGA HUGE 5 CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED LAST WEEK.
GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY ROSE BY $51.85
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(2900) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 12,119 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES:8578 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE . ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR DEC AT 83.813 TONNES OF NORMAL DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR FIRST 1.066 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 82.762 TONNES OF GOLD
3) LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (BUT CONSIDERABLE GOVT LIQUIDATION //AND FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS AND STRONG GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/NOV 28) AS WE HAD 1)A $51.85 COMEX PRICE GAIN AND WE HAD 2) NEWBIE SPEC SHORTS GETTING CLOBBERED AS THEY COVERED THEIR LOSSES IN QUICK FASHION.MASSIVE WESTERN + EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS WERE PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9219 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND YET A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN DECEMBER (82.762 TONNES). WE HAD HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ON FRIDAY //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL WITH THE RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 5) V) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (2900)
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NDEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 3240 CONTRACTS OR 324,000 OZ OR 10.077 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2005 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 10.077 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 10.77 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.303% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 10.77 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 436 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,360 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 150 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 7172 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 286 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.28 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.430 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.41 POINTS OR 0.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 174.77 PTS OR 0.67%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 950.63 PTS OR 1.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.54%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0718/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0688/ Oil UP TO 59.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0718 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0688:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.87 POINTS OR 0.05%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 496.48 PTS OR 1.97%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.34%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1071/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1079/ Oil UP TO 57.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.21 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1071 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1079:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 12,119 CONTRACTS TO 419,484 OI DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $51.85 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2900). WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY WITH MASSIVE MONTH END SPREADERS LIQUIDATION.. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED FRIDAY NIGHT AT 5074 NOTICES FOR 507,400 OZ (15.782 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ARE STANDING FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GOLD FOR DECEMBER DELIVERIES.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 9,219 CONTRACTS (OR 28.67 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9219 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH NOVEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1362 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES IN NOVEMBER WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON FRIDAY.
A LITTLE HISTORY ON TAS ATTEMPTED RAIDS: SEPT THROUGH NOVEMBER;
AS FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY FAILED TO RAID AT MONTH’S END AUGUST COMEX AND OTC/LONDON LBMA EXPIRY!! SO THE CROOKS DECIDED IT WAS NECESSARY TO RAID AROUND THE BIG INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT SEPT 17-SEPT 18 AND THEY TRIED AGAIN RIGHT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30, WITH MUCH FAILURE AS THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST REFUSED TO BUCKLE!! THIS LEADS US TO FIRST DAY NOTICE SEPT 30 AND THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY FOR A RAID AND TRUE TO FORM OUR CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID MUCH TO THE DELIGHT OF OUR BOYS IN LONDON WHO PICKED UP EXTRA AMOUNTS OF GOLD AND TENDERED FROM THIS SHORT PAPER ISSUANCE. THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER THEY DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN ON OCT 2 WITH CHINA OFF ON THIS WEEK FOR THEIR FALL FESTIVAL (BACK TODAY) AND OF COURSE THE IMPORTANT RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE OCT 1-2, YOM KIPPUR. AGAIN THIS ENDED IN ABSOLUTE FAILURE AS LONDON AGAIN CAME TO THE RESCUE WITH THEIR MASSIVE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL. YOU CAN JUST VISUALIZE THE MASSIVE HEADACHE THE CROOKS UNDERWENT WITH THIS HUGE PHYSICAL TENDERING FOR GOLD.(THE HUGE INCREASE IN QUEUE JUMPING). AND NOW AS WE ARE FINISHING OPTION EXPIRY WEEK, THE CROOKS GOADED OUR SPECULATORS TO CONTINUE ONTO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE…THE RAIDS THROUGHT THIS WEEK WERE FREQUENT BUT FAILED TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE TO THE PRICE WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHING OCT 31 AS WE NOW ENTER OUR MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH EARLY MONTH FAILED RAID ATTEMPTS. SO THEY NOW ISSUED THESE MEGA T.A.S. CONTRACTS AND THAT ALWAYS SIGNALS MAJOR RAIDS WHICH ARRIVED ON OUR DOORSTEP EARLY NOV. MONTH AND CARRIED ON IN FULL FORCE TO THIS DAY. THE RAID ON GOLD LAST WEEK ENDED ON LAST FRIDAY NOV 21 WITH GOLD’S REVERSAL IN PRICE AS ITS PRICING SKYROCKETED AND GOLD NEVER LOOKED BACK
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY A 1.066 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS, MAYBE I AM WRONG. WE MUST WAIT TO SEE THE DATA FROM BIS SWAPS FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO SEE IF THEY WILL BEGIN TO COVER!!
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
E.G. DECEMBER: A HUGE INITIAL 83.813 TONNES STANDING FOLLOWED BY A 1.066 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2900 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2900 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2900 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2900 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
SOME LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS BUT FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADERS//FRIDAY + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED AS IT WAS IN FULL FORCE THESE PAST 7 DAYS:COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY EXPIRED FRIDAY
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1312 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP FRIDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD BUT WITH A CORRESPONDING HUGE LOSS OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 12 MONTHS OF 2025
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 1.066 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $51.85/ /)
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY WITH THE PRICE RISE BUT WE DID HAVE FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION// COMEX TRADING//.. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
SATURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/ SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT AND NOVEMBER:
ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A SMALL 343 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REDUCES TO 82.762 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $51.85
WE HAD A FAIR 641 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 9219 CONTRACTS OR 921,900 OZ OR 28.67 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
23,970 notices 2,397,000 0z 74.556 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 entries
1 ENTRY
i) Into JPMorgan: 55,023.271 oz
total deposit: 55,023.271 oz
customer withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of Brinks 96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)
ii) Out of Loomis: 22,473.544 oz (1050 kilobars)
total withdrawal 130,211.550 oz or 4.050 tonnnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 3 all dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 907.42 oz
b) Brinks 8993.457 oz
c) Manfra: 505,797 oz
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 7712 CONTRACTS FOR A STRONG LOSS OF 19,239 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 18,896 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST 343 CONTRACTS VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON FOR 34300 OZ OR 1.066 TONNES. WE GENERALLY SEE THIS HAPPEN ON DAY 2 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE.
JANUARY GAINED 76 CONTRACTS UP TO 3012
FEB GAINED 6410 CONTRACTS UP TO 314,609 CONTRACTS
We had 5074 contracts filed for today representing 507,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 144 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2052contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 5074 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23970 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 7712 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (5074 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,660,800 OZ OR 82.762 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (23, 970 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (7712 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (5074)x 100 oz) which equals 2,660,800 OR 82.762 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 82.762 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 83.813 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 167,020 contracts weak
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,940,818.694 oz 60.367 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,281.914.664 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 18,101,984.835 or 563.04 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,179,929.829 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 16,161,166 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
502.68 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE DEC. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
DEC 1 2025
INITIAL/
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) Out of Brinks 698,729.450 oz ii) Out of Delaware: 78,797.878
total withdrawal: 777,527.328 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1 ENTRY i) Into Asahi 566,693.200 oz
total dealer deposit 566,693.200 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
0 entries
No of oz served today (contracts)
975 CONTRACT(S) ( 4.875 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1932 contracts (9.660 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
8305 Contracts (41.525 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 ENTRY i) Into Asahi 566,693.200 oz
total dealer deposit 566,693.200 oz
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 entries
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Brinks 698,729.450 oz ii) Out of Delaware: 78,797.878
total withdrawal: 777,527.328 oz
adjustments: 1 dealer to customer
a)321,139.860 oz CNT dealer to customer account of CNT
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 137.960 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 455.994 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 2907 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 6957 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 7330 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD A HUGE QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 2 OF 373 CONTRACTS OR 1.865 MILLION OZ
JANUARY GAINED 271 CONTRACTS UP TO 4017 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 143 CONTRACTS UP TO 1166 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 975 or 4.875 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 109,967 huge//
AND NOW NOVEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8305 X5,000 oz = 41.525 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (2907) AND the number of notices served upon today (975 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (8305) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(2907) minus number of notices served upon today (975)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 51.185 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 51.185million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 138. 281. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 198.596/455.994 million. 43.54%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1045.43 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 501.890 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
CHRIS POWELL TO US:
EXPLANATION AS TO WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY/QUITE PLAUSIBLE
Anonymous but more plausible than anything else See:
JP Morgan moved its entire #Gold trading desk from New York to Singapore LAST THURSDAY!!! What is going on??? Something BIG might be happening!!! @Kathleen_Tyson_ @LukeGromen @Sorenthek @goldseek @MakeGoldGreat @Nostre_damus @GoldTelegraph_ @WSBGold Thanks” / X
Last Thursday, JPMorgan, the biggest gold desk on the planet, abruptly moved their entire trading desk to Singapore, revealed through a leaked internal email. They told 50+ employees to pack their families, belongings, etc and head overseas, by end of week. This is not the type of thing that happens every day. This is an alarm bell ringing. And this was not a reaction because offices and computers were already in place readied for trading.
The internal email that has been leaked states that ultra-high net worth individuals are moving money out of the United States in mass. This is highly unusual and clearly something BIG is happening. The smart money knows something the public has not yet been told.
Now if JPMorgan is also buying physical gold in bulk to trade and settle with outside of London and the Comex the puzzle becomes more interesting. Since the paper game of Comex is running its’ course. And later this month Moscow opens their gold exchange.
A day of reckoning for reckless off balance games maybe ending. Money not on balance sheet or assets existing is a con game that the world is leaving behind. Back in the summer when we wrote Bessent and before that Trump and Bondi, there was a discovery of many pallets of printed money on pallets that were to be used to play the same strategy upon America that was played upon Russia when the Soviet Union was taken down. That is why in August key Senators were called back to Washington to work on the matter.
Events in recent weeks culminated with a crisis for silver derivatives in New York, London, and even Shanghai. Could it be the beginning of the end for the entire derivative complex?
Either it was a deliberate plug-pull, or just awful timing for the CME’s database to go offline coinciding with the most dramatic silver squeeze seen so far following weeks of backwardation between London spot and the Comex December contract. Rumours abounded, including one in Shanghai that there was going to be a very large stand for delivery.
It turned out that there was one, or several together amounting to 7,330 contracts, which is for 36,650,000 ounces (1,139.93 tonnes) valued at over $2 billion. This is not a record, which was 11,692 contracts on 30 April valued at $1.9 billion at the time. The difference is that back in April the threat of tariffs unlocked global liquidity which flowed to New York in large quantities and were readily available. This time there is no liquidity. This is evidenced in the chart below, which shows how the squeeze on silver has developed on Comex:
What the bear squeeze tells us
It is unusual to see a price rising while interest contracts, a situation which only occurs when there is a squeeze on the shorts. But there is another conclusion to be drawn. Open interest in both silver and gold futures has declined to low levels while prices rise, indicating a shift away from these contracts. It is almost certainly being mirrored in London’s forward market. The idea behind encouraging the expansion of these derivatives over 40 years ago was to divert demand away from the metals by creating artificial paper supply and thereby suppress their prices. It is that concept which appears to have ended.
In the wider context, not only did the expansion of derivative markets from the 1980s onwards put a lid on prices, but it gave the authorities the ability to do so without having to deliver physical metal. If we are seeing this function of derivatives ending for silver and gold, then the replacement of physical by derivatives goes into reverse, withdrawing artificial supply and leading to higher prices. This is what appears to be behind banks and market makers refusing to extend their commitments. In the past, agencies such as exchange stabilisation funds have stepped in. There is little sign of it now, raising the question as to whether they have simply given up.
These developments are consistent with a failing fiat currency system, whose smoke and mirrors no longer deceive. Derivatives help stabilise markets so long as there are no significant challenges to their validity. Bullion banks will hedge price-risk using derivatives, and derivatives to hedge derivatives. Meanwhile, the physical required to keep this circus maximus going is leased, swapped, hypothecated, and rehypothecated as many times as necessary.
After leased gold was dramatically withdrawn from the Bank of England earlier this year, depositing central banks would be foolish to renew lease obligations as they fall due. It is a development that undermines the most important derivative market of them all, coupled with China’s move to incorporate gold into trade settlements for the entire SCO, BRICS, and global south. And in silver, persistent supply deficits in recent years are no longer being met by the investor category in the Silver Institute’s supply and demand calculations.
But according to the Bank for International Settlement’s statistics, silver is a minor market, with over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives for silver and platinum group metals having notional amounts outstanding of only $101 billion at end-2024. Note that these figures do not include regulated exchange-traded derivatives, with Comex alone adding a further $43 billion. OTC Gold is significantly larger at $1,025 billion, and other commodities add a further $1,028 billion making a total of $2,154 billion.
OTC derivatives are peer-to-peer, and if a counterparty fails, it threatens to spark a chain of events across other derivative categories. If silver derivatives are the first domino to fall, gold will almost certainly follow. That being the case, counterparty risk will spread to other commodity derivatives, and from there to credit derivatives including interest rate swaps, and so on. The point is that the Fed, the US Treasury, and bank regulators must stop the rot from problems in silver spreading to other contracts.
This realisation supports suspicions that the Comex shutdown last week was deliberate to nip a very dangerous situation in the bud. We cannot know if this is true. But the important point to understand from this debacle is that paper markets can no longer be used to absorb physical demand. Instead, they are becoming a significant source of demand as banks and hedge funds seek to reduce their exposure, turning buyers themselves. The situation is already out of control so far as silver is concerned and is going that way for gold.
It also explains why their prices are rising with barely a pause. The end of derivatives is the loss of a crucial support for fiat currencies, particularly the dollar. Erode and remove that support and its relationship with gold and silver fundamentally alters. Unwinding four decades of price suppression will see far higher gold, silver, and other commodity prices, exposing the true value of the fiat dollar and the other major G7 currencies for the ephemera they truly are.
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /249 AND TODAY;S 250
5. COMMODITY REPORT/PHYSICAL //silver:
From Robert Lambourne to us:
Artificial intelligence from two sources: Chinese outlook for silver demand;
Robert Lambourne <robert.lambourne@icloud.com>
Sat, Nov 29, 2025 at 4:26 AM
To: Harvey Organ <harveyorgan@gmail.com>
REPORT ON MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE SILVER MARKET
Executive Summary: Medium-Term Silver Outlook (2026–2030)
The silver market is entering a structurally tight phase where industrial demand growth and supply rigidity dominate, with investment flows acting as the key accelerants of price. The combination of persistent deficits, increasingly inelastic supply, and TW-scale solar deployment represents the strongest medium-term setup for silver in over a decade.
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1. Fundamentals: Persistent Deficits, but Inventory Still Matters • Silver is in its fifth consecutive annual deficit, with a cumulative 820 Moz shortfall since 2021. • The 2025 deficit narrows to ~95 Moz as PV thrifting peaks, but deficits remain the base case through 2030. • Crucially, above-ground inventories (COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai, ETFs) still act as a balancing reservoir. Price must reach levels that incentivise these stocks to flow.
Implication: Deficits are supportive, but the elasticity of vaulted stock—not mine supply—is the main fundamental swing factor.
⸻
2. Industrial Demand: The Core Driver of the Decade • 2024 saw record industrial demand (680 Moz). A small pullback in 2025 is temporary. • Solar (PV): Even with −10–12%/yr thrifting, TW-scale installations push annual silver use toward 320–450 Moz by 2030. • EV/transport: Electrification and high-voltage architectures support 90–200 Moz demand by 2030.
Implication: By late decade, PV + transport could absorb ~450–650 Moz per year—transforming silver into a strategic industrial metal.
⸻
3. Supply: Structurally Inelastic Through 2030 • Mine supply is flat at ~813 Moz and 70% is by-product, limiting price responsiveness. • AISC margins are high but new projects face long lead times and declining grades. • Recycling remains stuck near 190 Moz, even at $50+ silver.
Implication: The market cannot rely on rapid mine growth; price and recycling must rebalance demand surges.
⸻
4. Investment Demand: The Primary Price Catalyst • ETP inflows in 2025 (+187 Moz) are the strongest since 2020; they now dominate marginal demand. • Retail bar/coin demand is weak but can return quickly in high-fear environments. • Silver continues to trade as a high-beta gold proxy.
Implication: Industrial demand sets the floor; ETP flows and macro positioning drive the ceiling.
⸻
5. Market Structure: Tightness Without Exhaustion • London lease rate spikes (30%) confirm regional form-specific scarcity, not global depletion. • Heavy commercial shorts (~575 Moz equivalent) create volatile, asymmetric upside moves during short-covering phases.
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6. Price Outlook & Skew • Base case (40%): Persistent deficits; industrial demand + mild ETP growth push prices to $55–70 on average, with spikes to $80–90 during tightness events. • Upside (35%): PV overshoot, stronger EV adoption, and a monetary shift could force price-based rationing; sustained >$90–110 is possible. • Downside (25%): Rapid thrifting, inventory mobilisation, or speculative washouts could drive 20–30% pullbacks.
Volatility will be high, but the long-term trajectory is upward.
FIVE-YEAR SILVER OUTLOOK – AMENDED NOVEMBER 2025
1. Structural deficit and inventories
The silver market is in its fifth consecutive annual deficit. The cumulative 2021-25 shortfall is now estimated at 820 Moz, equal to roughly one year of mined supply. The 2025 deficit alone, however, has narrowed to ~95 Moz (versus 149-240 Moz in 2022-24) as thrifting in photovoltaics (PV) and a cyclical dip in non-solar fabrication slowed the rate of inventory draw. Above-ground stocks are not exhausted; flexible vaulted inventories (COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai, ETF custodians) continue to act as the balancing pool.
Five-year implication: headline deficits remain supportive, but the key variable is how quickly and at what price level latent stocks can still be mobilised.
2. Industrial demand and green tail-winds
Industrial offtake hit a record 680 Moz in 2024 but is expected to ease 2 % to ~665 Moz in 2025 as module makers cut silver loadings 12 % y/y and EV build rates (ex-China) soften. Beyond 2025 the structural case re-asserts: • Solar: baseline case 10 000–14 000 t (320–450 Moz) by 2030, 30–40 % of forecast supply. • EV/transport: silver content per vehicle 2–4× ICE; sector demand could reach 90–200 Moz by 2030.
Five-year implication: absolute growth resumes once the 2025 thrifting wave is absorbed; PV TW-scale expansion and auto electrification remain the core demand drivers.
3. Supply inelasticity
Mine supply 2025E is 813 Moz, flat since 2022. ~70 % originates as by-product (lead/zinc, copper, gold); primary silver accounts for <30 %. AISC margins have exploded to ~$20/oz yet green-field commitments remain limited; lead times exceed 7–10 years and declining ore grades reinforce constraint. (NB AISC is all in sustaining costs).
Five-year implication: a demand-led up-cycle is more likely to resolve through higher prices and price-induced recycling than through a rapid mine-supply surge.
4. Investment demand – ETPs lead, bar & coin lag
Net ETP inflows reached +187 Moz YTD (largest since 2020), driven by institutional tactical allocation. Bar and coin demand, by contrast, is down 4 % to a seven-year low as US retail liquidated early-2025 holdings. Silver continues to trade as a high-beta proxy for gold; 2025 spot performance (+67 % vs gold +52 %) validates the historical pattern.
Five-year implication: ETP flows remain the principal swing factor; retail bullion can re-engage quickly if macro fear intensifies.
5. Physical tightness – London squeeze documented
Lease rates in London spiked to 30 % in October 2025 while COMEX stocks sit >500 Moz. CME delivery volumes hit consecutive records as tariffs incentivised trans-Atlantic vault movements. The episode confirms regional, form-specific tightness (good-delivery 1 000 oz bars in LBMA) rather than absolute global depletion. Investor takeaway: when regional tightness coincides with heavy speculative length, price spikes can be abrupt and two-way.
6. Gold-silver ratio – compression largely achieved
The ratio fell from 107 in April to 78 in November 2025, already close to 2011 and 2021 compression lows. Further out-performance now requires either fresh gold strength or an industrial-demand overshoot rather than simple catch-up. Further falls require a move outside the ranges seen in the last c15 years. The ratio last fell below 50 in the 2009/2011 period.
7. Thrifting limits
2025 saw the fastest PV silver intensity decline on record (-12 %), yet technical road-maps still show absolute silver use rising post-2026 because TW-scale installation growth outruns thrifting (TW is terrawatts, one trillion watts). Next-generation cell architectures (TOPCon, HJT, tandem) can be more silver-intensive, placing a floor on intensity declines.
Five-year implication: thrifting defers, but does not eliminate, structural silver demand growth.
8. Recycling – important but insufficient
Recycling supply is flat y/y at ~190 Moz despite $50+ prices. Complex, low-grade products (old PV, electronics, small appliances) keep recovery costs high; even aggressive recycling growth scenarios leave a sizeable primary supply gap by 2030.
COT data (Nov-25) show commercials net short ~115 k contracts (575 Moz), one of the largest figures on record. The position includes producer hedges, bank swaps and physical-backed forwards; it is not necessarily “naked” but historically coincides with elevated volatility. Two minor short-covering rallies already occurred (Aug & Oct-25), taking spot from $45→$54.
Five-year takeaway: the scale of the short book amplifies near-term volatility and can accelerate upside bursts, yet also provides temporary capping pressure if speculative length exhausts. —- ADDENDUM – SKEW SCENARIOS (2026-30)
Upside (probability raised to 35 %)
1. PV demand overshoot: if global module output tracks 1.3 TW/yr and thrifting under-delivers, solar could exceed 450 Moz annually, forcing price-based demand rationing. 2. EV/transport: adoption >30 % global fleet and higher silver per vehicle (>200 Moz) would create a large, cycle-independent demand pillar. 3. Monetary regime shift: persistent negative real rates or renewed fiscal stress could turn 2025’s ETP inflow into a multi-year wave, with COMEX short-covering acting as an accelerator.
Downside (probability 25 %)
1. Faster thrifting: if high prices and policy pressure drive >15 % annual PV intensity cuts, solar share of supply could fall below 25 %, eroding the green-transition pull. 2. Inventory overhang mobilisation: COMEX stocks (>500 Moz) could buffer 12–18 months of deficits if logistics arbitrage re-opens, delaying deficit-driven repricing. 3. Positioning-driven correction: record prices, extreme speculative length and large commercial shorts have historically preceded 20–30 % pull-backs, especially if industrial demand pauses during a broader recession.
Base case (40 %) – deficit persists, prices grind higher with volatility
Mine supply crawls to 840 Moz by 2030; industrial demand returns to 2–3 % CAGR; ETP holdings grow 3–4 % p.a.; prices average $55–70 with episodic spikes to $80–90 during periods of physical tightness.
CRYPTO CURRENCIES::
Crypto Crushed By Triple-Whammy Overnight
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 08:45 AM
After an ugly November (the worst since 2018), December is continuing that trend with a big drop overnight that shook what had appeared to be a stabilizing market.
Hawkish BoJ
The overnight plunge appeared to be triggered by Japanese government bond (JGB) futures tumbling on expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise borrowing costs at its December meeting.
Japan’s 2-year government bond yield briefly touched 1.01 percent, the highest since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan’s long era of near-zero rates is ending.
Some 90 minutes later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech that his board might increase interest rates soon.
Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.”
Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said.
As Bloomberg reports, the reaction underscored how crypto investors must now reckon with macro forces far beyond the Fed which is widely expected to ease monetary policy at next week’s meeting.
“In the early days, Bitcoin mostly moved to whatever the Fed was signaling, rate cuts, hikes, or balance sheet shifts,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.
“These days, Bitcoin reacts to the whole central-bank landscape, not just one player.”
The reaction was swift and violent as the the threat to the ‘yen carry trade’ tanked risk assets broadly, but most of all bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency plunged from around $92,000 to $84,000 before a small rebound back above $86,000.
“It’s a risk off start to December,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.
“The biggest concern is the meagre inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds and absence of dip buyers. We expect the structural headwinds to continue this month. We are watching $80,000 on Bitcoin as the next key support level.”
Over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations at $539 million and the majority of that in the past few hours, reported CoinGlass. Almost 90% of those liquidations were long positions, predominantly in BTC and Ether
Ethereum also tanked, back below $3,000…
Strategy selling?
Things worsened this morning as Bloomberg reports that concerns are rising that Strategy Inc. soon may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall, leading its shares to wobble in pre-market trading.
Strategy’s mNAV — a key valuation metric comparing the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings — sat at about 1.2 on Monday, according to its website, spurring investor fears it may soon turn negative.
“We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, said on a podcast on Friday, noting that it would only be carried out as a last resort.
“There’s the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do, and there’s the emotional side of me, the market side of me, that says we don’t really want to be the company that’s selling Bitcoin,” Le added.
“Generally speaking, for me, the mathematical side wins.”
MSTR is trading down 5% in the pre-market
However, after a week of not adding to its Bitcoin hoard, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to hint in a Sunday post on X that it might soon make further purchases.
Finally, we note that China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021.
The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control.
“Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement.
“Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.”
China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system.
So a triple-whammy for an already sensitive crypto market overnight – is this the weak hand flush needed for the Santa Claus rally to start?
ASIA RESULTS; MONDAY DEC 1
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.41 POINTS OR 0.25%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 174.77 PTS OR 0.67%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 950.63 PTS OR 1.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.54%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0718/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0688/ Oil UP TO 59.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0718 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0688:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0718
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0588
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 174.74 PTS OR 0.67%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 950.13 PTS OR 1.89%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.17 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1629 UP 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.877 // UP 8 FULL BASIS PTS//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.18…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3937 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7153/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.433 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.191
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.3403
3j Gold at $4253.50 Silver at: 57.46 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.21
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.18 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.877% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.3930 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8026 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9334 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.043 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.702 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.498 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.47 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4640 UP 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.234 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.152 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.759 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
1b/ European opening report
US Market Open: US and Ukraine negotiations were productive; US equity futures down and DXY pressured by stronger Yen – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 05:42 AM
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
European and US equity futures are broadly on the backfoot, following on from a cautious mood in APAC trade.
DXY is pressured by the stronger JPY following jawboning from Japanese officials and after BoJ Governor Ueda hinted at a December rate hike.
Bonds were initially pressured following on from JGB downside, and then took a leg lower alongside Gilt underperformance soon after the European cash open.
Crude futures benefit after OPEC+ holds output steady through Q1’26 and in reaction to further Ukrainian strikes in Russian oil refineries; 3M LME Copper surges to fresh ATHs above USD 11.2k/t, but has since scaled back given the risk tone and downbeat Chinese PMI figures.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Saudi-Russia Business Forum, EU Supply. Speak from Fed Chair Powell (Fed Blackout) and BoE’s Dhingra.
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EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) are on the backfoot, following a cautious mood seen in APAC trade. The AEX (U/C) bucks the trend, with ASML (+1%) keeping the index afloat after positive analyst commentary.
European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources leads, given the strength in underlying metals prices whilst Industrials sits at the foot of the pile, with Airbus (-3.5%) pressured after rolling out urgent fixes across its A320 fleet over the weekend.
US equity futures are softer across the board (ES -0.5% NQ -0.7% RTY -0.8%), following the pressure seen in Europe. Focus later will be on US ISM Manufacturing figures, which will give further insight into the health of the US economy ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
Softbank (9984 JT) CEO said he did not want to sell a single NVIDIA (NVDA) share, but needed funds to invest in OpenAI and other opportunities.
Swiss Government has filed charges against UBS’ (UBSG SW) Credit Suisse for money laundering and organisational deficiencies, relating to Mozambican state-owned enterprise
DXY is subdued in the presence of JPY strength and in the absence of any pertinent catalysts and with the Fed in a blackout period, while US President Trump said he knows who he will pick for the Fed chair role, but didn’t give any further details. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 99.26-99.51 range (vs Friday’s 99.38-99.82 parameter), with the next downside level the 17th November low at 99.25.
JPY is the marked outperformer this morning, given the risk tone and commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda, who ultimately hinted at a possible December rate rise, although market pricing has been little changed since last week, with a 67% chance of a hold at the 19th December announcement. USD/JPY currently resides towards the bottom of a 155.24-156.15 parameter, the next support level is seen at 155.21 (19th November low).
EUR and GBP diverge, the former underpinned by the USD, whilst the latter is subdued ahead of UK PM Starmer’s speech at 10:30GMT, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances pre-Budget. No moves were seen in EUR or GBP on the Final Manufacturing PMI data. EUR/GBP reached a 0.8794 peak vs a 0.8754 intraday trough.
Non-US dollars, CAD, AUD, NZD, are relatively flat with the broader market tone tentative and macro updates light. Upside capped in the antipodeans following overall disappointing Chinese PMIs, where the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0759 vs exp. 7.0709 (Prev. 7.0789).
USTs Mar’26 down to 113-06, lower by five ticks at worst. Downside echoes peers, but offset by dovish Fed expectations as markets near-enough price a December cut, and we look to updates on the next Fed Chair after President Trump said he knows who he will pick. Polymarket ascribes a 58% chance that Hassett will be appointed. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently said Trump could make an announcement pre-Christmas.
Bund Dec’25 at a 128.50 low, posting downside of 37 ticks. Support comes into play at 128.37 from the 20th of November. Thereafter, the figure before 127.88 from the last week of September. JGBs and Gilts (see below) driving much of the bearishness, alongside upside in numerous Commodity prices, and particularly crude post-OPEC.
Gilts Mar’26 opened lower by 12 ticks before falling further to a 91.16 low with downside of 42 ticks at most. Underperformance driven by the Budget and Chancellor Reeves coming under scrutiny over the weekend, with particular reference to the timing of OBR briefings and her pitch-rolling on Income Tax. PM Starmer to speak at 10:30GMT on growth.
JGBs Dec’25 hit overnight and were lower by c. 50 ticks at worst. Pressure on the back of hawkish BoJ commentary, where Ueda, among other points, said that delaying a rate hike too long could cause sharp inflation and force a rapid policy adjustment. Remarks that lifted BoJ pricing to over a 70% chance of a hike in December vs sub-60% on Friday.
COMMODITIES
WTI and Brent are currently trading higher by c. 2%, as markets digest the OPEC+ and supply-related concerns following Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries. WTI and Brent currently reside at the upper end of a USD 58.83/bbl to USD 59.97/bbl and USD 62.29/bbl to 63.35/bbl range respectively. Price action since the European cash open has been exceptionally lacklustre, and generally sideways around highs; some modest downticks have been seen in recent trade.
Spot gold is firmer today and trades towards the upper end of a USD 4,205.63/oz to USD 4,262/oz range. XAU now at levels not seen since late October 2025; there is now a bit of clear air to the high of 21st October at USD 4,375.62/oz. Perhaps some focus on continued Ukrainian attacks on Russia, as traders now focus on the coming meeting between US Special Envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin on Tuesday. Elsewhere, marked pressure in the crypto space perhaps sent flows to the more-traditional haven in APAC trade.
Base metals held a strong positive bias throughout overnight trade, but then gave up some of the upside as the risk tone dipped a touch, with traders focusing on the disappointing Chinese PMI metrics. Focus has also been on the surge in 3M LME Copper, which saw the red-metal surge above USD 11.2k/t to print a fresh ATH at USD 11,297/t, before scaling back down to a current USD 11,189/t. ING opines that the latest bout of demand for the metal is thanks to “an upbeat CESCO Week event in Shanghai” – suggesting that it echoed the markets’ view of tight supply.
OPEC+ agreed to keep group-wide oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, while it stated that participating countries approved the mechanism developed by the secretariat to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity. Furthermore, it announced that the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on 7th June 2026.
OPEC Secretariat receives update compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, according to a statement.
Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ latest decision is the most important and transparent in deciding production level via State TV.
Gas exports from Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field resumed just days after a drone attack.
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Nov) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.7)
German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4)
French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 47.8 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 49.9)
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich, according to FT.
UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have been accused of misleading the Cabinet by using claims that there was a black hole in the public finances to justify tax rises during the run-up to the Budget, according to The Times’s Swinford, while it was separately reported by Bloomberg that Reeves denied lying about UK finances pre-Budget.
UK PM Starmer is to defend the Budget after Reeves was accused of misleading the public, and will outline the growth mission after the Budget tax rises during a speech on Monday.
S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable.
ECB’s de Guindos said the current level of interest rates is appropriate and, in terms of future moves, this is data dependent.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump said on Friday he is cancelling all executive orders signed by former President Biden using autopen and stated that any document signed by Biden with autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated and of no further force or effect. Furthermore, Trump stated that Biden was not involved in the autopen process and that if he said he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
US President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the next Fed chair.
White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he will be happy to serve if US President Trump picks him as Fed chair.
US State Department announced a pause on visa issuances for Afghan passport holders, and the US immigration service said it will halt all asylum decisions, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director said USCIS halted all asylum decisions until they can ensure that every migrant is vetted and screened to the maximum degree.
US Transportation Secretary Duffy said they have been in close contact with Airbus (AIR FP) about the software update recall for the A320 and the airlines that use them, as well as noted that travellers should not expect any major disruptions. It was also reported that Airbus was revising down the number of jets affected by the most time-consuming A320 repairs, while American Airlines said planes impacted by the Airbus glitch have been fixed.
Mastercard SpendingPulse noted that US retail spending on Black Friday rose 4.1% Y/Y and ecommerce spending rose 10.4% Y/Y, while Adobe Analytics noted that consumer spending rose 9.1% Y/Y to a record USD 11.7bln on Black Friday.
CyrusOne said it restored stable and secure operations at its Chicago 1 data centre in Aurora, Illinois.
South African President Ramaphosa dismissed US President Trump’s threat to exclude the country from next year’s G20 summit and reaffirmed South Africa’s status as a founding member of the group, according to Reuters.
“It is exceedingly unlikely that the White House will embrace an ACA subsidies extension or offer its own plan”, according to Punchbowl citing Trump admin sources.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu submitted a letter to President Herzog, while Netanyahu said in a video statement addressing the pardon request that his personal interest was to complete the legal process until the end, while he added that the military and national reality, and national interest, demand otherwise, and that ending the trial immediately would advance much-needed national reconciliation.
Israeli helicopters fired in the eastern areas of Khan Yunis inside the Yellow Line, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli security estimates that Iran may take the initiative and carry out retaliatory operations instead of Hezbollah and estimates preparations for a Houthi response in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Top Commander Al-Tabatabai, according to Al Arabiya.
Hezbollah’s leader said on Friday in response to Israel’s killing of its military chief that the group has a right to respond and will set a time for it, while he added that Lebanon’s government should prepare a plan to confront Israel.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with Turkey regarding the nuclear issue and Israel, while he also held a meeting with the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs in Tehran.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia’s Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.
OTHER
US President Trump declared on Truth Social that the airspace above Venezuela is closed. It was separately reported that President Trump held a call with Venezuelan President Maduro, while Trump also commented that Defence Secretary Hegseth told him that he did not order a second boat strike.
US bipartisan lawmakers raised alarms on Sunday that Defence Secretary Hegseth may have committed a war crime following a report that he ordered a follow-on attack to kill survivors of a boat strike in September, according to POLITICO.
Venezuela said it rejects US President Trump’s “hostile, unilateral and arbitrary” post about Venezuela’s airspace and noted that the statement shows “colonial pretentions” towards Latin America, while it added that Venezuela demands respect for airspace and will not accept foreign orders or threats.
China’s Coast Guard carried out law enforcement inspections around the Scarborough Shoal, while the report noted that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command organised combat readiness patrols in the ‘territorial’ waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas on November 29th, according to Xinhua.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin sank overnight and continues to remain on the backfoot, below USD 86.6k whilst Ethereum slips below USD 2.9k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, telecoms, financials and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Company Profits and Business Inventories.
Nikkei 225 slipped beneath the 50k level amid a firmer currency and risks of a BoJ rate hike in December, while there were hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that they will consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the discouraging Chinese PMI data, in which the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Governor Ueda is to deliver a speech at the Japan Business Federation on December 25th, according to the central bank.
BoJ Governor Ueda said if their projection of economic activity and prices materialise, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices, while he added that even if the policy interest rate is raised, accommodative financial conditions will be maintained and the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing. Ueda also commented that at the December meeting, the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates. Furthermore, he said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen works to push up consumer inflation, while they must be mindful that FX moves affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation in guiding policy.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals.
China’s financial regulator guides banks and insurers to fully provide financial support services related to the Hong Kong fire and said insurance institutions should promptly handle claims and other procedures for disaster-affected customers, while it added that banks should strengthen financial credit support and actively assist in disaster reconstruction.
Indonesia said at least 303 people died in three provinces after severe rains caused floods and landslides.
Vanke has reportedly requested 12-months to pay its bonds under the extension plan, Bloomberg reports.
DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0)
Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.5 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
Chinese NBS Composite PMI 49.7 (Prev. 50.0)
Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 49.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)
1c) Asian opening report
Asia-Pac stocks began the new month mixed; Crude surges post-OPEC – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 01:35 AM
APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
GBP/USD remained choppy ahead of UK PM Starmer’s speech on Monday, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances.
Crude futures were underpinned from the open following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output plans throughout Q1 2026.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Saudi-Russia Business Forum, EU Supply.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were bid on Friday during the shortened day of trade, with equity futures modestly higher from levels seen before the CME outage in the morning, while gains were broad-based, with the vast majority of sectors closing green, although healthcare bucked the trend and was pressured by Eli Lilly’s (LLY) weakness following the November rally.
Furthermore, T-notes were lower across the curve as stocks moved higher, with little macro information to digest on account of Thanksgiving on Thursday.
SPX +0.54% at 6,849, NDX +0.78% at 25,435, DJI +0.61% at 47,716, RUT +0.58% at 2,500.
China was reported on Friday to have banned imports of pigs, wild boars and related products from Spain’s Barcelona province, according to a China Customs document. In relevant news, Mexico’s Agriculture Ministry also suspended pork product imports from Spain due to a swine fever outbreak.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said on Friday he is cancelling all executive orders signed by former President Biden using autopen and stated that any document signed by Biden with autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated and of no further force or effect. Furthermore, Trump stated that Biden was not involved in the autopen process and that if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
US President Trump said he knows who he will pick as the next Fed chair.
White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he will be happy to serve if US President Trump picks him as Fed chair.
US State Department announced a pause on visa issuances for Afghan passport holders, and the US immigration service said it will halt all asylum decisions, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director said USCIS halted all asylum decisions until they can ensure that every migrant is vetted and screened to the maximum degree.
US Transportation Secretary Duffy said they have been in close contact with Airbus (AIR FP) about the software update recall for the A320 and the airlines that use them, as well as noted that travellers should not expect any major disruptions. It was also reported that Airbus was revising down the number of jets affected by the most time-consuming A320 repairs, while American Airlines said planes impacted by the Airbus glitch have been fixed.
Mastercard SpendingPulse noted that US retail spending on Black Friday rose 4.1% Y/Y and ecommerce spending rose 10.4% Y/Y, while Adobe Analytics noted that consumer spending rose 9.1% Y/Y to a record USD 11.7bln on Black Friday.
CyrusOne said it restored stable and secure operations at its Chicago 1 data centre in Aurora, Illinois.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, telecoms, financials and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Company Profits and Business Inventories.
Nikkei 225 slipped beneath the 50k level amid a firmer currency and risks of a BoJ rate hike in December, while there were hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that they will consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the discouraging Chinese PMI data, in which the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).
US equity futures retreated alongside the selling pressure in Asia-Pac bourses and gave back the Black Friday spoils.
European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.
FX
DXY traded little changed in the absence of any pertinent catalysts and with the Fed in a blackout period, while US President Trump said he knows who he will pick for the Fed chair role, but didn’t give any further details.
EUR/USD was indecisive with the single currency returning to flat territory after failing to sustain an early foray above the 1.1600 level, and with comments last Friday from ECB President Lagarde, who reiterated that interest rates are at the right level and the situation is good.
GBP/USD remained choppy ahead of UK PM Starmer’s speech on Monday, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances.
USD/JPY retreated as risk sentiment in Japan deteriorated and with downside also facilitated by recent comments from officials including Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals, while BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices if their projections of economic activity and prices materialise. Furthermore, Ueda stated that the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing, as well as noted that the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting.
Antipodeans lacked conviction alongside the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese PMI data.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0759 vs exp. 7.0709 (Prev. 7.0789).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained subdued following last week’s holiday-thinned conditions and with little fresh pertinent catalysts.
Bund futures lacked demand following light weekend newsflow, while participants await EU supply and November final PMIs.
10yr JGB futures retreated from the open with further downside exacerbated amid several hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were underpinned from the open following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output plans throughout Q1 2026.
OPEC+ agreed to keep group-wide oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, while it stated that participating countries approved the mechanism developed by the secretariat to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity. Furthermore, it announced that the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on 7th June 2026.
Gas exports from Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field resumed just days after a drone attack.
Spot gold initially climbed in tandem with the upside seen in other precious metals, including silver which rallied to a record high, before fading most of their earlier gains.
Copper futures extended on gains which saw LME prices hit fresh all-time-highs above the USD 11,200/ton level, but then pulled back from their best levels amid the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese PMI data.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin slumped overnight from north of the USD 90,000 level to beneath the USD 86,000.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Governor Ueda said if their projection of economic activity and prices materialise, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices, while he added that even if the policy interest rate is raised, accommodative financial conditions will be maintained and the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing. Ueda also commented that at the December meeting, the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates. Furthermore, he said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen works to push up consumer inflation, while they must be mindful that FX moves affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation in guiding policy.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals.
China’s financial regulator guides banks and insurers to fully provide financial support services related to the Hong Kong fire and said insurance institutions should promptly handle claims and other procedures for disaster-affected customers, while it added that banks should strengthen financial credit support and actively assist in disaster reconstruction.
Indonesia said at least 303 people died in three provinces after severe rains caused floods and landslides.
DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0)
Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.5 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
Chinese NBS Composite PMI 49.7 (Prev. 50.0)
Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 49.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu submitted a letter to President Herzog, while Netanyahu said in a video statement addressing the pardon request that his personal interest was to complete the legal process until the end, while he added that the military and national reality, and national interest, demand otherwise, and that ending the trial immediately would advance much-needed national reconciliation.
Israeli helicopters fired in the eastern areas of Khan Yunis inside the Yellow Line, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli security estimates that Iran may take the initiative and carry out retaliatory operations instead of Hezbollah and estimates preparations for a Houthi response in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Top Commander Al-Tabatabai, according to Al Arabiya.
Hezbollah’s leader said on Friday in response to Israel’s killing of its military chief that the group has a right to respond and will set a time for it, while he added that Lebanon’s government should prepare a plan to confront Israel.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with Turkey regarding the nuclear issue and Israel, while he also held a meeting with the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs in Tehran.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.
OTHER
US President Trump declared on Truth Social that the airspace above Venezuela is closed. It was separately reported that President Trump held a call with Venezuelan President Maduro, while Trump also commented that Defence Secretary Hegseth told him that he did not order a second boat strike.
US bipartisan lawmakers raised alarms on Sunday that Defence Secretary Hegseth may have committed a war crime following a report that he ordered a follow-on attack to kill survivors of a boat strike in September, according to POLITICO.
Venezuela said it rejects US President Trump’s “hostile, unilateral and arbitrary” post about Venezuela’s airspace and noted that the statement shows “colonial pretentions” towards Latin America, while it added that Venezuela demands respect for airspace and will not accept foreign orders or threats.
China’s Coast Guard carried out law enforcement inspections around the Scarborough Shoal, while the report noted that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command organised combat readiness patrols in the ‘territorial’ waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas on November 29th, according to Xinhua.
GLOBAL NEWS
Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich, according to FT.
South African President Ramaphosa dismissed US President Trump’s threat to exclude the country from next year’s G20 summit and reaffirmed South Africa’s status as a founding member of the group, according to Reuters.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have been accused of misleading the Cabinet by using claims that there was a black hole in the public finances to justify tax rises during the run-up to the Budget, according to The Times’s Swinford, while it was separately reported by Bloomberg that Reeves denied lying about UK finances pre-Budget.
UK PM Starmer is to defend the Budget after Reeves was accused of misleading the public, and will outline the growth mission after the Budget tax rises during a speech on Monday.
ECB President Lagarde said on Friday that interest rates are at the right level and the situation is good, while she is optimistic about the situation in France.
S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable.
2.a NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
b. JAPAN
JAPAN
This morning’s data //courtesy Robert H: 10 yr yield up 8 full basis pts //30 yr up 5 full basis pts:
Yields on bonds rising sharply overnight (while a danger signal to all governmental debt.)
It is a bigger signal that Capital has woken up to the risk of not being paid.
Capital will now start demanding more yield ( interest ) for the risk of not being paid back. Not surprising as one has to be blind not to see governmental corruption and stupidity on a vast scale. This trend will rise quickly into next year and by mid year 2026 we will see a collective rise in all governmental debt. The sheer vastness of debt growing is being compounded that in a number of cases governments have stopped even being able to generate enough income to offset interest payments on debt.
If they were companies one would say they are headed for bankruptcy. The notion that government bonds are safe investments is no longer true. Add the risk of conflict and it is clear that risk must be priced into yield. Hence rising rates that we are seeing. The day will come when in a number of cases there will be simply be NO buyers of such debt. This is why the rush into digital currencies to mask default. And to cause control of the dissents that will arise in the future. History always repeats because people choose not to learn from it. Perhaps this is why the lessons of history are glossed over in schools. Where even math skills these days are lacking.
Whether it is a couple of years or more this trend will come to a natural conclusion. Every empire throughout history has faced a reckoning. And few ever prolonged their existence in their existing forms without change. It will be no different with the current slate of many ships of fools who will be unable to remain in control. And government for what it is will change. And change will mean defaults on government debt.
Today’s issues with Japan are a warning sign to be heeded.
end
BONDQUAKE IN JAPAN THIS MORNING
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
Understanding the “Bondquake” in Tokyo
The phrase “Bondquake in Tokyo – Yield Spreads Hit Absurd Extremes, Something Has to Break” captures a dramatic escalation in Japan’s government bond (JGB) market turmoil, which has intensified through late November 2025. This isn’t hyperbole—it’s a reference to surging yields on long-term JGBs, widening spreads (e.g., between short- and long-dated bonds or versus global peers), and fears of a systemic unwind. Japan’s bond market, the world’s third-largest, is cracking under the weight of decades of ultra-low rates, now colliding with persistent inflation, fiscal stimulus, and geopolitical strains. As of December 1, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a policy meeting in just over two weeks (December 18-19), with markets pricing in a 50%+ chance of another rate hike, amplifying the quake.This event echoes the 2008 crisis in scale but stems from Japan’s unique vulnerabilities: a 263% debt-to-GDP ratio (higher than Greece’s during its crisis) and reliance on yield suppression. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently warned in parliament that Japan’s finances are “extremely poor, worse than Greece’s.” The “something has to break” sentiment reflects the tipping point where rising yields could trigger a yen carry trade collapse, repatriation of trillions in foreign assets, and global liquidity shocks.Key Drivers of the BondquakeJapan’s shift from zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) to normalization has been abrupt:
Inflation and BoJ Hawkishness: Core inflation hit 3.0% in October 2025, exceeding the BoJ’s 2% target for three years straight. The BoJ hiked rates in January 2025 and signaled more, reducing bond purchases. This ended the “yield curve control” era that capped rates near zero.
Fiscal Pressures: A ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package for inflation relief adds to borrowing needs. Defense spending is rising to 2% of GDP (¥9 trillion annually) amid 25 Chinese military incursions near Japanese waters in 2025 alone.
Market Dynamics: Poor auction demand (worst since 1987 for 40-year bonds) signals eroding confidence. Life insurers reported ¥60 billion in unrealized losses on JGBs in Q1 2025—four times last year’s figure.
Yield Spread Extremes: The “Absurd” MetricsYields have spiked to multi-decade highs, creating inverted or extreme curve dynamics. The spread between Japan’s 2-year (short-end) and 30-year (long-end) bonds has widened dramatically, reflecting repricing risks. Here’s a snapshot of recent peaks (as of November 30, 2025):
“Widow-maker” trade revives; erodes BoJ balance sheet (120% of GDP).
20-Year
2.75% (Nov 18)
All-Time High
Debt service jumps $27B/year per 0.5% rise; consumes 38% of revenue over a decade.
30-Year
3.41% (Nov 21)
1999 (Inception)
45% value loss since 2019; repatriation trigger for $3.2T foreign holdings.
40-Year
3.69% (Nov 25)
20-Year High
Auction bid-to-cover at 1987 lows; global contagion risk via US Treasuries.
Absurd Extremes in Spreads: The 10Y-30Y spread hit 1.6% (widest since 2000), while Japan-Germany 30Y spreads narrowed to near-zero despite Japan’s 4x higher debt load—defying fundamentals and hinting at suppressed global yields unraveling. Compared to the US (30Y at ~5%), Japan’s curve is steepening violently, a “mechanism failure” per analysts.
These levels aren’t isolated; open interest in JGB futures exploded to 188,000 contracts (up 65,000 since June), with shorts piling in—mirroring 1990s unwinds that halved Japanese equities.The Chain Reaction: Why Something Will BreakJapan’s woes are the “silent engine” of global liquidity. For 30+ years, cheap yen funded everything from US Treasuries ($1.13T held by Japan) to tech stocks and crypto. Now, it’s reversing:
Yen Carry Trade Unwind ($350B–$4T Exposure): Borrow yen at ~0.5%, invest abroad at 4–5%. Rising JGB yields (to 3%+) make this unprofitable. A 5-yen strengthening (to 152/USD) triggers margin calls, forcing sales. Preview: July 2024 spike dropped Nikkei 12.4% and Nasdaq 13% in a day.
Capital Repatriation: Japanese investors (pensions, insurers) hold $3.2T abroad. At 2.75%+ domestic yields (post-hedging), US Treasuries lose appeal—$500B could flow home in 18 months, spiking US yields 30–50 bps and tightening global credit.
US Markets: Repo collateral erodes (Treasuries/MBS values fall), banks face losses amid low reserves. Mortgages repricing higher tightens housing.
Emerging Markets: Currency drops of 10–15% as yen funds exit.
Feedback Loop: Higher yields → more losses → less demand → even higher yields. BoJ’s ¥1.2T balance sheet can’t absorb it without yen collapse or hyperinflation.
X discussions amplify the alarm: “Japan just broke the global financial system… 30 days” (Nov 17 post with 6.8K likes), warning of portfolio chaos.
@shanaka86 Another: “When Japan sneezes, U.S. risk assets catch it” (Nov 20, 484 likes).
@preetkailon Consensus: This is a “regime change,” not a recession—ending the “everything bubble” built on cheap money.What Happens Next? BoJ’s December Dilemma
Hike Scenario (51% Odds): Yen surges 6–15%, carry trades vaporize, volatility explodes (VIX to 30+). Equities down 10–20% short-term.
Hold Scenario: Inflation accelerates to 3.6%+, eroding savings; yields still rise on fiscal fears.
Global Response: Fed may pause cuts; ECB follows. Gold/safe-havens rally as liquidity evaporates.
Japan’s “fault line” is a warning for the US (debt at 130% GDP): Low rates mask high debt until they don’t. Position defensively—short duration, hedge leverage, stress-test for 1%+ global yield shifts. The quake’s aftershocks are just starting.
Rate-hike odds have soared to 82% from just 20% ten days ago: is the BOJ about to unleash another Christmas week carry-trade massacre with a rate hike on December 19, just when market liquidity is the lowest all year?
END
3. CHINA
CHINA/HONG KONG
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS/SCANDINAVIA
GERMANY
Capital flight is severe!! Covestro caught in this selling wave!
KOLBE
“Made For Germany” Is History: Covestro Caught In The Waves Of The Sell-Off
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Submitted By Thomas Kolbe
Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy giant ADNOC has acquired nearly all shares of German chemical powerhouse Covestro. Germany is gradually losing its strategic position in critical industrial sectors. The sell-off is accelerating.
Remember the big media spectacle “MADE FOR GERMANY” this past July? Chancellor Friedrich Merz staged a meeting with 61 corporate CEOs, proudly announcing supposed future investments of €631 billion.
Even then, given the ongoing capital flight from Germany, it was clear that the event was mainly a media stunt – a sad attempt to distract the public from the real state of the German industrial base.
Sell-Off Accelerates
Since that day, Germany’s industrial sell-off has not slowed – it has accelerated. Companies have already made their judgment: suffocating regulations, exploding compliance costs in the name of climate policy, and an administratively hostile environment have turned investments into a risk.
In short: industrial production is being systematically and willfully strangled by lawmakers.
Last week, German chemical giant Covestro grabbed the headlines. This time, it was Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC on a bargain hunt – Black Friday has become a daily routine.
At around €62 per share, for a total transaction value of €15 billion, ADNOC increased its stake to over 95% – effectively taking control of company policy.
Loss of Capital and Know-How
Capital gains will no longer flow to Germany but to Abu Dhabi. Strategic decisions about investment and location policy are now made by owners abroad.
This is especially critical for a company of clear strategic importance: Covestro’s high-performance plastics and polyurethanes are essential for Germany’s key industries – from automotive and machinery to construction and electrical engineering. Covestro is a central element of the industrial value chain, whose stability largely determines the future of the entire German industrial base.
About 40% of the 15,000 employees still work in Germany, many at the Leverkusen headquarters. But even Covestro has not escaped the general decline. Germany’s chemical industry now operates at just 71% capacity – a drop of more than 20% from the record year of 2018 – a sector now navigating increasingly rough waters.
Covestro has reported negative net earnings in recent years, while operating profit (EBIT) fell by more than 50% from 2023 to 2024, down to €87 million. Pressure from international competitors, high energy costs, and increasingly complex Brussels regulations have pushed the company to the limits of its competitiveness.
A Broader Trend
The trend of selling off Germany’s industrial crown jewels began with the sale of Augsburg-based robotics and automation specialist KUKA in 2016. At the time, China’s Midea Group acquired a majority stake for €4.6 billion.
Even then, the same spectacle played out: the new investor publicly promised jobs and location guarantees, but quickly shifted to a mode where strategic decisions were tied exclusively to return expectations and location quality.
There is simply no place for sentimental traditionalism or patriotic rhetoric in this world. Global industry moves forward – and no one outside Europe shares the passion for risky green policy experiments.
Dramatic Consequences
Covestro and KUKA are just two prominent examples of a secular trend. Year after year, Germany loses net direct investment. Last year alone, €64.5 billion flowed out – capital that is being invested elsewhere in new production capacity. Note: this is a net figure, which is expected to be even higher this year.
Germany’s economy is bleeding, while political leaders respond with half-hearted industrial subsidies – like the so-called “industrial electricity price” – and ever-new regulations. Many companies are likely to exit in anticipation of the cost tsunami from the CO₂ certificate market starting in 2027.
The U.S. Factor
Above all, the United States beckons as an alternative production base. The Trump administration has made it clear that it will use every lever – including tariff pressure – to advance reindustrialization. This includes deregulation of the energy sector, an end to costly renewable experiments, and an industrial policy that welcomes investors rather than driving them away.
Add to that promises from Arab states like Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia to invest trillions in U.S. production – concrete proof of Washington’s seriousness. “Made for USA” will become a major political and economic mantra in the years to come. The U.S. economy is currently growing at over 4%, accelerating global capital shifts.
The list of German companies moving to the U.S. is growing. Hamburg-based metal producer Aurubis, automotive groups Stellantis, and supplier Bosch are among firms planning to strengthen the North American economy with billions in investments.
No One Sacrifices the Green God
It would be too simplistic to blame this trend solely on U.S. trade policy. Long before Trump returned to the White House, it was clear that industrial production in Germany – and across the EU – had become unprofitable. As long as national policy enforces the Green Deal and its “green transformation,” nothing will change.
No one dares to sacrifice the Green God – the destructive CO₂ narrative driving economic collapse.
Half-hearted protests by Mittelstand associations, such as the Family Entrepreneurs, calling for broader political discourse including the Alternative for Germany – and their sharp political and media pushback – show that Germany still does not recognize the seriousness of the situation.
With each major corporation relocating abroad, the backbone of the German economy – the deeply integrated Mittelstand – is weakened. Even the public sector hiring half a million people cannot mask the fact that industry has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs and will continue to lose value in the coming years.
Celebrating the reintroduction of an EV subsidy as a major industrial policy step is, at its core, nothing more than a declaration of bankruptcy of eco-socialist policies that have propelled the country into a spiral of poverty.
end
HOLLAND
The Dutch Are The Most Likely To ‘Borrow’ Their Neighbor’s WiFi
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 02:45 AM
According to data collected by Statista Consumer Insights, 16 percent of Dutch online respondents said that they mainly access their internet at home via their neighbor or landlord’s wireless connection.
According to the survey, only 41 percent of respondents in the Netherlands had access to broadband and 19 percent had a mobile connection via smartphone or tablet in 2025.
The United States and the United Kingdom had far lower rates of adults using their neighbors’ WiFi, at four percent and three percent, respectively.
The U.S. also had a relatively low share of people with broadband, at 37 percent, while the UK’s was higher at 63 percent.
While the reasons for this discrepancy are not fully clear from the data alone, it’s interesting to note that breaking into an encrypted WiFi is not a criminal offense in the Netherlands, even though it is in other countries.
Breaking into a computer, however, is.
END
SWEDEN
(BROOKE/REMIX)
FIGURES!!
Over €325 Million In Fraudulent Welfare Benefits Support Illicit Gang Networks In Sweden; Report
A Swedish government review has found that thousands of people linked to gangs in Sweden have been drawing income from the country’s benefits system for years, creating what authorities describe as a reliable, legal-looking revenue stream for criminal networks.
According to findings prepared under the state’s organized crime framework, about 4,000 individuals known to police for gang affiliation have been receiving sickness benefits, sick pay, or job-seeker support. Combined payments across the group are estimated at 3.6 billion kronor (€327.5 million) over time, enough to provide what officials call a “white” income even when illicit earnings fluctuate.
It effectively means that law-abiding Swedish taxpayers are inadvertently subsidizing criminal gangs through the benefit system, providing them with a safety net income that enables them to continue operating.
Nils Öberg, head of the Social Insurance Agency, said the material reinforces the pattern authorities have been tracking. Speaking to TV4, he said the welfare system has become part of the business model: an official income on paper, and criminal income off it.
Samnytt notes that the report shows a marked overrepresentation of people with a migration background in the cohort examined. This applies to both those born abroad and those born in Sweden to two foreign-born parents.
Investigators highlight the contradiction between benefits requiring reduced work ability and the documented activity of some recipients. Case studies in the report refer to individuals formally certified as unfit for work while running gangs, traveling abroad, or coordinating violent offenses. One man listed on medical grounds after an accident was recorded visiting gyms and participating in gang operations. Another, diagnosed with limited work ability, is reported to have led a large criminal network while accumulating more than 30 convictions.
Maintenance support is also cited as a hidden revenue channel. Since many gang figures report little or no legal income, the state covers child maintenance on their behalf. In 2024, more than 3,600 such individuals were classified as unable to pay, resulting in payouts of around 118 million kronor (€10.7 million).
The review also tracked corporate links. One in three businesses that filed sickness claims on behalf of gang-connected employees are run or previously run by people with criminal links. More than four in five show clear connections to gang networks. The personal assistance sector in particular was flagged as an area with heavy infiltration, both among staff and among owners.
Social Insurance Minister Anna Tenje, as cited by Sydsvenskan, said that the situation was “astonishing” and insisted that public funds are meant for people who genuinely need them. She argued that weakening the financial lifeline to criminal networks is essential if the government wants to reduce gang influence.
Speaking to TV4, Labor Minister Johan Britz described those involved as “welfare pirates,” adding that taxpayers were effectively financing criminal lifestyles under the guise of social support.
Police estimate that around 67,500 people in Sweden have some form of gang association, of whom roughly 17,500 are considered actively involved. National Police Commissioner Petra Lundh said there is no clear indication of improvement or deterioration and warned that recruitment remains steady.
The authors of the review state that existing law was designed for honest applicants rather than organized exploitation and suggest that stronger information-sharing powers and more robust verification are required. The government says new data-access legislation will come into effect in December, with further reforms planned later in the parliamentary term.
Officials say the next step is to reassess benefit cases flagged in the review and halt payments where fraud is suspected. The agency involved says it will broaden investigations, but ministers have offered no timeline on when changes will take full effect.
NATO Mulls ‘Preemptive Strike’ Against Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, Claims ‘More Aggression’ Needed
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 02:20 PM
At a moment Washington under President Trump is busy issuing rare calls for restraint, de-escalation, and to enact a peace deal in Ukraine, a top NATO commander says the conflict needs more aggression by the Western military alliance directly against Russia.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, has told Financial Times as part of a fresh report that NATO is currently mulling more proactive measures in response to Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare. The report cites an alleged rise in Russian-backed cyberattacks, sabotage operations and airspace violations over Europe – which NATO could mirror and more, as any potential “pre-emptive strike” on Russian targets would be justified.
“We are studying everything… On cyber, we are kind of reactive,” Dragone said. “Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something that we are thinking about.”
That’s when he explained his view that a “pre-emptive strike” could under certain circumstances and context be classified as a defensive action. “It is further away from our normal way of thinking and behavior,” he conceded.
“Being more aggressive compared with the [aggressiveness] of our counterpart could be an option” – but he said that the questions that remain are: “legal framework, jurisdictional framework, who is going to do this?”
Multiple diplomats and officials from Eastern European and Baltic states are calling for this more proactive stance, or a less merely ‘reactive’ approach, to make Moscow feel real pain.
“If all we do is continue being reactive, we just invite Russia to keep trying, keep hurting us,” one Baltic diplomat was quoted in the FT as complaining.
“Hybrid warfare is asymmetric – it costs them little, and us a lot. We need to be more inventive,” the diplomat said.
And yet, there already have been years of covert sabotage operations in place, aimed at Russia and overseen by the West. These efforts, some which long ago were exposed in mainstream publications, are a large reason of why there’s been constant escalation of the Ukraine war.
This has in turn resulted in escalation of nuclear rhetoric and threats between Russia and the West. But the temperature needs to be drastically turned down, but these latest comments by the chair of NATO’s Military Committee will only do the opposite.
Young men are continuing to pay the price on the battlefield, even as a peace process slowly and painfully plays out. Reuters has belatedly admitted and documented the immense losses suffered by Ukraine’s military:
Pavlo Broshkov had high hopes when he joined the Ukrainian army in March as a fresh-faced recruit eager to defend his country and earn a bumper bonus to buy a home for his wife and baby daughter.
Three months later, the 20-year-old lay broken and prone on the battlefield, his dreams in tatters.
Broshkov is among hundreds of 18 to 24-year-olds who have volunteered to fight on the front lines this year, lured by generous pay and perks in a national youth recruitment drive designed to breathe fresh life into Ukraine’s aged and exhausted armed forces of about one million.
Meanwhile, EU nations are finding any way possible to keep up the conflict instead of finding true compromise…
Macron:
In the weeks to come, the pressure on the Russian economy and the capacity of Russia to finance the war effort will drastically change. pic.twitter.com/JOmzDvdKxY
The Kremlin has hit back against the aforementioned remarks of Adm. Dragone, with Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova calling Dragone’s remarks “an extremely irresponsible step, indicating the readiness of the alliance to continue to move toward escalation.”
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
IRAN
SYRIA/ISRAEL
FRIDAY NIGHT
Israeli Troops Suffer Rare Casualties In Brazen Ground Raid On Syrian Town
Friday, Nov 28, 2025 – 05:00 PM
Israel on Friday launched another unprovoked major attack on Syria, which has killed at least 13 people, including children – and additionally some 25 have been reported injured.
In this instance, the assault on the southern Syrian town Beit Jinn was a rare ground raid by Israeli forces, likely accompanied by air and artillery support.
“The Israeli military said six soldiers were wounded, three of them severely, by militant fire during the raid in the village of Beit Jinn,”Reuters reports based on official sources. It’s unclear whether the IDF forces incurred fatalities, but if so the Israeli government is likely to keep it under wraps.
The Israeli dawn raid and strikes forced dozens of families to flee from the town in search of safer areas. The Syrian Foreign Ministry swiftly condemned “the criminal attack carried out by an Israeli occupation army patrol in Beit Jinn.”
The statement added, “The occupation forces’ targeting of the town of Beit Jinn with brutal and deliberate shelling, following their failed incursion, constitutes a full-fledged war crime.”
There are reports the Israeli assault also included artillery shelling – which may have been why there were so many civilian casualties:
The remains of at least five Syrians, including two children, were taken to the Golan National Hospital in the city of al-Salam in Quneitra, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).
Israeli drones have also been active over the area. In post-Assad Syria, the IDF has encroached more and more on Syrian territory, expanding significantly beyond its Golan Heights occupation.
The Israeli military has described that the high-risk operation was launched to detain suspects belonging to Jama’a Islamiya – a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group which is alleged to have fired rockets at Israel from Lebanon during the Gaza war. The statement further charged the group “terrorist plots”.
This development constitutes a very rare instance of the IDF suffering so many casualties while operating in Syria, per Reuters:
In a statement posted on X, the Israeli military said six of its soldiers were wounded, three of them seriously in an exchange of fire.
The Israeli military added that while the operation has been “completed” and all suspects were either arrested or “eliminated”, its forces are still being deployed in the area “and will continue to operate against any threat” to Israel.
🚨 IDF releases footage of counterterror raid in southern Syria that ended in arrests and a fierce firefight
The IDF has published video showing the arrest of two members of the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya terror organization in the village of Beit Jinn overnight, along with a clash… pic.twitter.com/eoh20Xsn41
There’s a certain irony surrounding Israel’s sudden interesting in tracking down and rooting out Sunni Islamists near its border – given that for years during the regime change war against Assad Israel openly tolerated, and in some cases even supported, some of these very same jihadists.
The meeting underscores Qatar’s apparent eagerness to play a central role in post-war Gaza. As a long-time supporter and funder of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, the Qatari regime’s main goal seems to be ensuring that Hamas remains in power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas describes itself as “one of the wings of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine.”
One does not need to be an “expert” to understand that Qatar, despite its attempt to present itself as a neutral mediator between Israel and Hamas over the past two years, continues to be affiliated with the extremist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Unfortunately, this ideology considers non-Muslims (and Israel) as Enemy No. 1.
In his October 19 column in the Qatari government daily Al-Sharq, Ahmad al-Muhammadi, an imam and preacher in Qatar’s Waqf Ministry, explained that the enmity between the Muslims and the Jews and Christians is existential and deeply rooted, and presented Islam as the truth and Christianity and Judaism as falsehood and heresy.
He went on to call on Muslims to beware of slogans of tolerance that are aimed at uprooting belief in Islam, and asserted that Islam is “a religion that neither compromises nor reconciles.”
“Qatari Shura Council member Essa Al-Nassr said that October 7 was the beginning of the end of the Zionist state, presenting this as a divine promise mentioned in the Quran. He added that there can be no peace with the Jews, because their faith condones ‘deception, the violation of agreements and lies’ and they are ‘slayers of the prophets.'” — MEMRI, September 15, 2025.
Researcher and political analyst Eitan Fischberger recently uncovered a series of posts in which Majed al-Ansari, advisor to the Qatari prime minister and spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, openly praised suicide bombings and called for Tel Aviv to burn.
In a recent speech, the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, said that the five Hamas members Israel killed in an airstrike in Doha last September were “our brothers.”
Qatari Education Minister Lowlah al-Khater has called Israel and the West an “ugly, racist, and vile civilization” She described Israel and its Western backers as a “mixture of ugliness, entrenched racism, and vile materialistic civilization.”
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are said to be “frustrated” by Washington’s growing concessions to Qatar, their regional rival and a longtime supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
“It’s a mistake to rely on Qatar, which backs the Muslim Brotherhood… [Qatar] will undermine deradicalization efforts and try to ensure that Hamas remains in the picture and returns to power in the not-so-distant future.” — Unnamed Saudi diplomatic source, Israel Hayom, October 12, 2025.
Bringing Qatar into the Gaza Strip is effectively placing the fox inside a chicken coop. If Qatar is allowed to play a civilian or security role inside the Gaza Strip, this privilege would be seen by many Palestinians as a reward for Hamas and other Islamist terror groups. It will allow the terrorists worldwide to rearm and regroup, and enable Qatar to continue reasserting the policies of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Middle East – as well as in the US, where it has already exorbitantly bought influence. That purchase includes “economic commitments worth at least $1.2 trillion” in the US, the $400 million “flying palace” Boeing 747 jet, and “at least $100 billion” pumped into US universities.
One does not need to be an “expert” to understand that Qatar, despite its attempt to present itself as a neutral mediator between Israel and Hamas over the past two years, continues to be affiliated with the extremist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Unfortunately, this ideology considers non-Muslims (and Israel) as Enemy No. 1. Pictured: Qatar’s then Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani holds hands with then Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during their visit to the Islamic University in the Gaza Strip on October 23, 2012. (Photo by Wissam Nassar/AFP via Getty Images)
Delegations from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey met in Cairo on November 25 to discuss implementation of the second phase of US President Donald J. Trump’s plan for ending the war in the Gaza Strip, which erupted with the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel.
According to media reports, the meeting included the heads of the Egyptian and Turkish intelligence agencies, along with the prime minister of Qatar. They discussed “ways to intensify joint effort to ensure the successful implementation of the second phase of the plan,” which includes the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of a transitional Palestinian governance committee, and the deployment of an International Stabilization Force in the Gaza Strip.
The meeting underscores Qatar’s apparent eagerness to play a central role in post-war Gaza. As a long-time supporter and funder of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, the Qatari regime’s main goal seems to be ensuring that Hamas remains in power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas describes itself as “one of the wings of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine.”
Qatar is the only Arab country that hosts the entire leadership of Hamas and that has been providing political and financial aid to the terror group since 2007.
In 2012, former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani was the first leader of a country to visit Gaza under Hamas rule. He pledged $400 million in assistance, and that same year Hamas was permitted to open a political office in Doha.
It is this Qatari (along with Iranian) support that enabled Hamas to stay in power for the past 18 years and launch its October 7, 2023 massacre, which resulted in the murder of some 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, the wounding of thousands, and the kidnapping of 251 hostages, the remains of two of whom have yet to be returned by Hamas.
Without Hamas, Qatar would lose a critical means of influence not only in the Palestinian areas but also in the region. The assumption that Qatar could play a role in maintaining peace or launching a process of deep deradicalization in the Gaza Strip is delusional.
One does not need to be an “expert” to understand that Qatar, despite its attempt to present itself as a neutral mediator between Israel and Hamas over the past two years, continues to be affiliated with the extremist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Unfortunately, this ideology considers non-Muslims (and Israel) as Enemy No. 1.
In his October 19 column in the Qatari government daily Al-Sharq, Ahmad al-Muhammadi, an imam and preacher in Qatar’s Waqf Ministry, explained that the enmity between the Muslims and the Jews and Christians is existential and deeply rooted, and presented Islam as the truth and Christianity and Judaism as falsehood and heresy.
Stating that anyone who thinks this enmity – which he said stems from a variety of reasons involving a combination of faith, interests, history and geography – is transient is deluding himself, he went on to clarify that it would continue as long as Islam exists and “as long as the communities of unbelief persist in their deviation.”
He stressed that a devout Muslim “realizes that today’s conflict between Islam and its enemies is not just a battle over borders or interests, but a battle over values, ways of action, and the future.” He went on to call on Muslims to beware of slogans of tolerance that are aimed at uprooting belief in Islam, and asserted that Islam is “a religion that neither compromises nor reconciles.”
Such statements by Qatari officials should not surprise anyone. Since Hamas’s October 7 massacre and throughout the Gaza war, Qatar, its media, and institutions affiliated with it have consistently expressed unreserved support for Hamas and for terrorism and armed violence against Israel. This support finds expression on all levels: in statements by officials and religious clerics, in the media and in Qatar’s education system.
According to an investigative report by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI):
“Despite its ostensible role as a mediator between Hamas and Israel, Qatar, which has for years sheltered Hamas leaders within its borders and funded this organization with billions of dollars, has taken a blatantly pro-Hamas and anti-Israel line, as reflected in statements by members of the royal family and by Qatari politicians. Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, the mother of the Qatari Emir and the chair of the Qatar Foundation, implied that Israel had fabricated reports about Hamas’ atrocities, and accused Israel of spreading false historical narratives that ‘have taken over the collective mind of the world.’ After the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre, Sheikha Moza eulogized him, saying that ‘he will live on’ while Israel will perish. Shortly after the October 7 massacre, Sheikha Hind, the Emir’s sister and CEO of the Qatar Foundation, condemned Israel’s ‘murder and destruction’ in Gaza while making no mention of the atrocities perpetrated by Hamas. Qatari Shura Council member Essa Al-Nassr said that October 7 was the beginning of the end of the Zionist state, presenting this as a divine promise mentioned in the Quran. He added that there can be no peace with the Jews, because their faith condones ‘deception, the violation of agreements and lies’ and they are ‘slayers of the prophets.’
“Al-Jazeera, Qatar’s flagship media network, has been operating as a propaganda outlet in the service of Hamas. It expresses unreserved support for this organization, justifying its October 7 attack, showing footage from it obtained from the terrorists’ bodycams, and celebrating it as a victory that has brought pride and honor to the Islamic nation. The network has provided an unlimited platform for messages and threats by Hamas’ leaders and spokespersons, and for their calls on Muslims worldwide to join the jihad against Israel. To wit, Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar described Al-Jazeera as ‘the best pulpit that accurately gives voice to our positions…’
“Moreover, it has been shown that some Al-Jazeera reporters took an active part in Hamas’ October 7 invasion of Israeli localities, and some even served as Hamas field commanders. On their personal social media accounts and various other online platforms, Al-Jazeera’s presenters and reporters are even more explicitly pro-Hamas and anti-Israel. They have openly praised Hamas and its October 7 attack, and expressed hope that this attack presages the complete liberation of Palestine and Israel’s demise.
“A similar line is taken by other Qatari media and journalists, which likewise support and glorify Hamas and terror against Israel in general. This is conveyed in reports, opinion pieces, cartoons and even poems published by the various outlets, which describe October 7 as ‘a magnificent and historic day’ and call for further attacks of this sort, and claim that Israel’s demise is a divine promise and is therefore inevitable. The articles also encourage Hamas to continue its missile attacks on Israel and kidnap more Israelis, and oppose the disarming of this organization.”
Researcher and political analyst Eitan Fischberger recently uncovered a series of posts in which Majed al-Ansari, advisor to the Qatari prime minister and spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, openly praised suicide bombings and called for Tel Aviv to burn. In one post, al-Ansari praised the Second Intifada – the 2000-2005 Palestinian terror campaign – against the “Zionist enemy” and its “martyrdom operations” — a euphemism for terrorist attacks.
In a recent speech, the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, said that the five Hamas members Israel killed in an airstrike in Doha last September were “our brothers.”
Qatari Education Minister Lowlah al-Khater has called Israel and the West an “ugly, racist, and vile civilization” She described Israel and its Western backers as a “mixture of ugliness, entrenched racism, and vile materialistic civilization.”
Qatar poses a threat not only to Israel and the West, but also to many Arabs who are opposed to Islamist terror groups.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are said to be “frustrated” by Washington’s growing concessions to Qatar, their regional rival and a longtime supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. According to an October 12 report in the newspaper Israel Hayom:
“Over the past month, several key moderate Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain—have found themselves sidelined. While they support Trump’s initiative to end the war, they are unhappy with the major concessions made to Qatar, still their regional rival and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist movement that undermines Arab regimes. They are also uneasy about Washington’s expanding defense agreements with Doha.”
An unnamed Saudi diplomatic source told the newspaper: “It’s a mistake to rely on Qatar, which backs the Muslim Brotherhood.” He warned that “excessive Qatari involvement in the next stages of the plan and Gaza’s reconstruction will cause Trump’s plan to collapse,” adding:
“Qatar’s interests are different, it will undermine deradicalization efforts and try to ensure that Hamas remains in the picture and returns to power in the not-so-distant future.”
Bringing Qatar into the Gaza Strip is effectively placing the fox inside a chicken coop. If Qatar is allowed to play a civilian or security role inside the Gaza Strip, this privilege would be seen by many Palestinians as a reward for Hamas and other Islamist terror groups. It will allow the terrorists worldwide to rearm and regroup, and enable Qatar to continue reasserting the policies of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Middle East – as well as in the US, where it has already exorbitantly bought influence. That purchase includes “economic commitments worth at least $1.2 trillion” in the US, the $400 million “flying palace” Boeing 747 jet, and “at least $100 billion” pumped into US universities.
Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
END
IRAN
the world must bomb their oil fields out of existence!!
Iran Captures Another Tanker In Strait Of Hormuz For ‘Fuel Smuggling’
Iran has seized an Eswatini-flagged ship carrying “smuggled fuel”, according to state media. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they intercepted the ship on Sunday, prompting criticism from the African country.
“A vessel carrying 350,000 litres of smuggled fuel operating under the flag of Eswatini was seized and taken to Bushehr,” an IRGC member told state media. “There are 13 crew members on board, all from a neighboring country and India.”
In response, Eswatini put out a statement denying their country’s involvement in the incident, saying there were currently no ships authorised to fly its flag.
“The Kingdom of Eswatini has no connection whatsoever to the vessel reported to be seized in Iran, and we reject in the strongest terms any attempts to associate our country with maritime criminality,” it said in a statement.
Iranian forces regularly target tankers that Tehran accuses of illegally transporting fuel in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in November they captured a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the geographically pivotal waters.
The authorities said “the tanker was in violation for carrying unauthorized cargo” without providing specifics.
The incidents have come as tensions between Iran and the West have continued to mount over the country’s nuclear program. Widespread United Nations sanctions, including an arms embargo, against Iran were reinstated in September, following the collapse of nuclear negotiations.
Omani-mediated talks between Iran and the United States collapsed in June after Israeli and American strikes on Iran, bringing diplomatic progress to a halt.
Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and denies any intention to develop nuclear arms.
The reimposed sanctions were a “snapback” mechanism from the 2015 nuclear agreement, which had suspended penalties in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Witkoff Heads To Moscow With Revised Ukraine Peace Plan After Tense Miami Meeting Focused On Borders
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 09:20 AM
Both sides kept their comments somewhat vague after the US and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami on Sunday to discuss a potential outline for a peace deal to end the war with Russia. One of the Ukrainian delegates called it “intense but not negative.” Axios wrote, “After an hour in a wider format, the meeting narrowed to three officials from each side — with the line of territorial control virtually the only issue discussed, according to the two Ukrainian officials.”
The American side which was led Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited simply that there’s “more work to be done,” including more direct engagement with Russia, also as Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow this week to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the talks, despite not actually having an official position in the Trump administration. Axios reports some of the details gleaned thus far as follows:
Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, two Ukrainian officials tell Axios. They described the five-hour meeting as “difficult” and “intense,” but productive.
Rubio said in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, “We had another very productive session, building off Geneva, building off the events of this week. As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war, but it’s more than just to end the war. We don’t just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever, so never again will they face another invasion.”
This presumably is a reference to security guarantees, which were outlined in the Trump-proposed plan and likened to Article 5-like protections, something which Moscow is likely to reject if it does actually invite the possibility of future NATO military intervention.
Rubio is still only emphasizing laying the “groundwork” at this late stage. “And so this is comprehensive, what we’re working on here today. It’s not just about the terms that end fighting. It’s about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva,” he described.
As for the degree to which the Zelensky government is actually on board, Rubio acknowledged, “I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war, which is very important. It is about securing Ukraine’s future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it’s ever been.”
Amid the typical vagueness present in such post-meeting comments, Rubio did note that progress was made. “I think additional progress was made, and we continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we’ve made progress,” he said. But a key question remains the degree to which the Ukrainians finally expressed willingness to make territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea.
The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council, after Andriy Yermak, who was until Friday Zelensky’s top aide and chief negotiator, resigned – or rather was pressured out -following a police raid on his home by anti-corruption investigators. He has since dramatically announce that he has gone to the front lines. Some say he is hiding from investigators, which can’t reach him in a military zone.
Umerov began his post-meeting remarks, “Once again, we are grateful to American people, American leadership and great team with State Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us. Our objective is prosperous, strong Ukraine. We were discussing about the future of Ukraine.”
He continued, without tipping his cards, “We worked. We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today, we continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful.”
So territorial concessions and security guarantees remain the central sticking points, with many analysts saying now that Umerov is running point, and with Yermak pushed aside, President Trump’s vision for bringing an end to the war could be more easily accomplished.
At this moment, US officials say Witkoff is expected to submit updated documents in his upcoming meeting with President Putin that incorporate the latest talks and revisions that weremadewith Kiev and European leaders.
Still, the Ukrainian side didn’t look happy based on the few photographs of the meeting’s start which emerged. The Trump administration is definitely in the driver’s seat, and Europe is not even at the table. This is likely become they know the clock is ticking on the battlefield, where as Moon of Alabama has noted, “The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle.” The geopolitical analysis source continues:
As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too.
There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine.
The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas: “We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.”
Moon of Alabama quips rhetorically: “Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?”
Below are more of the latest Monday morning headlines and developments via Newsquawk…
* * *
Russia’s Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.
Little public optimism for a quick peace by close of this year:
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
FDA’s “Profound Revelation”: COVID Shots Killed At Least 10 Children, Stronger Vax Rules Coming
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 – 06:05 PM
The Food and Drug Administration’s top overseer of vaccine policy on Friday told employees that at least 10 American children died “after and because of receiving” a Covid-19 vaccine. In a 3,000-word memorandum first reported by PBS, Dr. Vinay Prasad, director of the FDA’s vaccine division, also committed to implementing changes to the FDA’s evaluation of vaccine efficacy and safety, and encouraged dissenting employees to find a new job.
“This is a profound revelation,” Prasad wrote. “For the first time, the US FDA will acknowledge that COVID-19 vaccines have killed American children.” Prasad said the conclusion about children dying from Covid-19 vaccines was reached after he and other FDA staffers undertook a multi-month, “detailed analysis of deaths voluntarily reported to the [Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System] system (VAERS).”
That effort focused on 96 deaths that occurred between 2021 and 2024, and said “no fewer” than 10 of them were caused by the vaccines. “If anything, this represents conservative coding, where vaccines are exculpated rather than indicted in cases of ambiguity. The real number is higher.” He added,
“It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved. This requires humility and introspection.”
Prasad slammed the coercive nature of policies that insisted on Covid shots for children:
“Healthy young children who faced tremendously low risk of death were coerced, at the behest of the Biden administration, via school and work mandates, to receive a vaccine that could result in death. In many cases, such mandates were harmful. It is difficult to read cases where kids aged 7 to 16 may be dead as a result of covid vaccines …
FDA has never requested the manufacturers demonstrate in randomized fashion that vaccinating children improves…outcomes. The available randomized data in children is deeply limited, and broadly negative for symptomatic infection, as discussed in prior ad-coms. Furthermore, COVID-19 was never highly lethal for children, and now MIS-c [Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children] has decreased drastically, and the harms, to kids, are comparable to many respiratory viruses for which we do not provide annual immunization.”
Prasad — a hematologist-oncologist — was among several outspoken critics of the Covid-19 regime that moved into key public health posts after Trump took office in January. Others include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr as Health and Human Services secretary, Dr. Marty Makary as FDA commissioner and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya as Director of the National Institutes of Health.
“Vaccine deaths are a very small minority” That’s what News Nation’s Elizabeth Vargas just told FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary…
His response left the studio silent.
Direct quotes from the interview:
– “Hundreds of thousands of Americans describe vaccine injury”
Friday’s memorandum emphasizes that VAERS likely understates vaccine-triggered mortality:
“When it comes to vaccine deaths, VAERS is passively reported. It requires a motivated person, often a doctor, to submit the information. The submission process is tedious and most people who start the form give up along the way. Many more deaths may be unreported.”
To minimize future vaccine-driven deaths, Prasad said the FDA “will take swift action regarding this new safety concern” and “will demand pre-market randomized trials assessing clinical endpoints for most new products.” Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, Prasad repeatedly sounded alarms about public health interventions that were imposed without rigorous efforts to seek evidenceof their risks and rewards. This has been a central theme in his body of work; he also authored a book, “Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People with Cancer.”
Prasad said the FDA will also “revise the annual flu vaccine framework,” which he called “an evidence-based catastrophe of low quality evidence.” He also acknowledged that “[FDA has] not been focused on understanding the benefits and harms of giving multiple vaccines at the same time.” He ended the memo by urging staffers who aren’t comfortable with the new approach to resign:
“I remain open to vigorous discussions and debate on these topics, as I have always been. I am open minded to modifications or alterations…Some staff may not agree with these core principles and operating principles. Please submit your resignation letters to your supervisor and CC my deputy Katherine Szarama…for those who choose to remain…I look forward to working with you.”
Prasad’s pointed statement about vaccine-caused deaths comes ahead of this week’s meeting of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine committee. The draft agenda for the meetings on Dec 4 and 5 includes FDA policy on giving hepatitis B vaccines to newborn babies, and the entire children’s immunization schedule. The meetings are open to the public via live webcasts.
It’s noteworthy that major media outlets that obtained a copy of Prasad’s memorandum have only provided short quotations from it, seemingly seeking to undercut Prasad’s assault on the Covid regime those same outlets unquestioningly supported. You can read the entire 3,000-word memo at The Brownstone Institute, a site originally launched to scrutinize Covid policies.
Dr. Robert Malone, a Covid vaccine critic with credentials in mRNA technology, hailed Prasad’s memorandum as a historic milestone. “I am stunned, gobsmacked by his letter,” he wrote at Malone News. “The significance and importance of this letter in the context of US and global vaccine policy cannot be overestimated. This is a revolution, the likes of which I never expected to see in my lifetime. The Washington Post called me a liar for stating what is now official FDA policy and truth.”
Of course, vaccines were just one of many public health policies of the Covid era that may have done far more harm than good. With a Pandora’s box of policy side-effects that include impaired child development, learning loss, a surge in mental breakdowns, soaring juvenile suicide attempts, increased drug and alcohol abuse, increased domestic violence and higher drug overdoses, it’s increasingly clear that, in its coercive, ham-handed approach to Covid-19, public health didn’t err on the side of caution, but rather erred on the side of catastrophe.
GLOBAL ISSUES
PFIZER ( CRIMINALS)
special thanks to Robert H for bringing this to our attention:
Pfizer buries data showing mRNA flu vaccine bombed in trial with elderly, not much better under 65 | Just The News
Pfizer buries data showing mRNA flu vaccine bombed in trial with elderly, not much better under 65
Two years ago, Pfizer anticipated that sales of its rebound-prone COVID-19 oral antiviral Paxlovid and fully approved mRNA COVID vaccine Comirnaty would plummet, but good news appeared on the horizon: The drugmaker’s mRNA flu vaccine did well in phase 3 trials in ages 18-64, and Pfizer expected to release results from the 65-and-up cohort “later this year.”
The results are finally in: Compared to a standard flu shot, the mRNA vaccine was associated with six times as many adverse events as infections prevented in adults under 65, and it outright failed in elderly people, associated with more deaths and both minor and serious injuries, from injection-site swelling to kidney problems.
The company buried the long-delayed elderly results on the government’s clinical trials website this spring, more than a year late and without announcing them to the public or investors, and gave an optimistic take on the under-65 results in the New England Journal of Medicine last week, while admitting the mRNA shot was “associated with more reactogenicity events.”
Australian and American drug industry journalists dug into the two arms of the trial, predicting mRNA jabs for flu would face an uphill climb with Trump administration regulators, who have already canceled nearly $500 million in federal projects and contracts that went toward mRNA vaccine development.
Pfizer used the same testing structure for mRNA flu shots as for its COVID shots and still found only an absolute difference of 0.32% for under-65s, requiring vaccination by 300 people to “prevent a single mild, self-limiting illness,” physician-turned-investigative journalist Maryanne Demasi wrote in an X thread summarizing her deep-dive review.
“Put simply, it’s a manufacturer-funded trial, written largely by Pfizer employees & finds its best efficacy in the endpoint that requires all samples to be shipped to a Pfizer-run central lab for adjudication,” Demasi said.
She noted Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Marty Makary and Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research Director Vinay Prasad conditioned future COVID jab approvals on “randomised trials using a saline placebo and measuring real clinical outcomes,” a far cry from the Pfizer flu trials.
The elderly findings were so bad “Pfizer decided to break its 2023 promise to investors to disclose them and simply stick them in the virtual filing cabinet that is clinicaltrials.gov,” former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson wrote.
Curiously, Pfizer’s “pipeline” page describes its flu vaccine trial as in Phase 2, so it “seems to be pretending it did not” complete the final Phase 3 as described on the ClinicalTrials.gov page, Berenson said.
Pfizer did not answer queries from Just the News about the elderly findings and its rosy portrayal of the findings for under-65s. Neither did the office of Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., the Senate health committee chairman, who has sparred with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on research that could undermine vaccine confidence.
The most recent estimates from the CDC, for the 2023-2024 flu season, say 55% of children got a flu vaccine, down more than eight percentage points from the “pre-pandemic 2019–20 season.” It was 45% for adults, their lowest since 2017-2018 (37%).
The results for the roughly 27,000-elderly arm show 49 deaths among those who received the mRNA shot compared to 46 who received the standard jab; 22 with serious kidney problems – “acute” injury, chronic disease or “end-stage renal disease” – compared to 9; and 17 with “acute respiratory failure” compared to six.
Nearly three times as many people in the mRNA group (69%) reported “local reactions” at the injection site within a week, including “redness, swelling and pain,” and nearly twice as many (59%) reported “systemic events” such as vomiting, diarrhea, chills, new or worsened muscle pain and joint pain.
The mRNA group was also about 6% more likely to get infected, a recurring problem with mRNA vaccines in general, especially with booster doses. Recently published research in a prestigious British medical journal found that COVID-vaccinated young people who got reinfected faced higher risks of some serious conditions, including acute kidney injury.
The NEJM study of the 18-64s, with several thousand fewer participants than the 65-and-up cohort, found relative efficacy of the mRNA jab compared to the standard jab to be 34.5%, with a wide confidence interval, meeting the criteria “for both noninferiority and superiority.”
It also noted higher rates of mild to moderate adverse events in the mRNA group but less stark, largely due to the standard shot recipients under 65 having more frequent AEs than did the standard recipients over age 65.
Berenson emphasized the mRNA shots were associated with 174 more adverse events related to “system organ class” than the standard jabs in the under-65 adults, more than twice as many, with an especially wide gap between the two flu shots on post-vaccination blood and lymphatic system disorders – 26 versus 2.
Even the smaller gaps between the non-elderly adults are alarming, Demasi said. “For every 1 mild flu-like illness the mRNA vaccine prevents, it causes >50 others to experience systemic flu-like symptoms,” she wrote.
Caroline Kennedy’s daughter reveals terminal cancer diagnosis
November 22, 2025
Caroline Kennedy’s daughter Tatiana Schlossberg, 35, revealed her terminal cancer diagnosis in a New Yorker essay published Nov. 22. Schlossberg wrote that she learned she had acute myeloid leukemia after giving birth to her second baby in May 2024, after her doctor noticed an imbalance in her white blood cell count. Her doctors estimate she may have less than a year to live. Schlossberg, the daughter of daughter of Caroline Kennedy and Edwin Schlossberg, is an environmental journalist and author.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s note – The irony is too rich and the obtusiveness of these elites is off the charts, as Schlossberg is no doubt “vaccinated” — and she and her mother can’t make the connection between the jab and cancer. Schlossberg on her cousin, HHS Secretary Bobby Kennedy, Jr.: “During the latest clinical trial, my doctor told me that he could keep me alive for a year, maybe,” she wrote. She also wrote of her concerns after her cousin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom she called an “embarrassment,” was nominated as secretary of Health and Human Services.
‘Grey’s Anatomy’ star James Pickens Jr. reveals prostate cancer diagnosis and how it’s affected his family
November 16, 2025
James Pickens Jr. has played one of the most beloved doctors on TV since 2005, but after “Grey’s Anatomy” made a shocking midseason revelation, Pickens is making one of his own. The 71-year-old actor revealed he was diagnosed with prostate cancer– a battle his family knows all too well. “It’s not the kind of news anyone wants to hear, but to be honest, prostate cancer has run through my family,” Pickens told Black Health Matters. “My father had it. He had a lot of brothers; several of them had it. I would have been surprised if I hadn’t gotten it.”
Great White Rocker, 68, Diagnosed With Stage 4 Cancer: ‘There Isn’t a Cure’
November 22, 2025
Mark Kendall, the guitarist for Great White, took to social media on Saturday, November 22, to share an important message about his health with his followers. “Hello, friends! Just wanted everyone to know I was diagnosed with stage 4 kidney cancer a few months ago. I wanted to wait to go public until I knew a little more about it,” Kendall began via Facebook. “Just to give you an update the tumor has shrunk from 13 centimeters to 8, so I’m going in the right direction with my first scan. There isn’t a cure for cancer but what I have is manageable. I have the best doctors in the world and one of them invented Immunotherapy which is the treatment I’m on,” the “Rock Me” artist continued.
Bernie Kosar shares health update, says he is getting liver transplant today
November 17, 2025
Former Browns QB Bernie Kosar [62] shared some good news about his health, stating that he was undergoing surgery on Monday morning for a liver transplant. Kosar shared a video early Monday about his upcoming surgery, calling it a Victory Monday for him, despite the Browns’ loss. “I can’t thank you all enough for the love and support — it truly means everything,” he said in the Facebook post. Kosar went through multiple surgeries this past week, as he awaited a liver transplant, after the previous donor liver became infected. Despite the medical challenges he’s faced, he says he’s in good spirits, remembering advice from his former football coaches.
Sen. Fetterman hospitalized in Pittsburgh after falling, his office says
November 13, 2025
HARRISBURG, Pa. — U.S. Sen. John Fetterman had what his office says was a “ventricular fibrillation flare-up” that caused him to feel light-headed and fall during an early morning walk Thursday. Fetterman was doing well and hospitalized in Pittsburgh, his office said. He sustained minor injuries to his face and was under “routine observation” at the hospital while doctors fine-tune his medication regimen, his office said. Ventricular fibrillation is the most serious form of abnormal heartbeat and can lead to cardiac arrest — when the heart suddenly stops beating — and sudden cardiac death, according to the American Heart Association. Ventricular fibrillation occurs in the heart’s lower chambers, and the heart association says its causes include cardiomyopathy, which Fetterman was diagnosed with in 2022. Cardiomyopathy can impede blood flow and potentially cause heartbeats so irregular they can be fatal. Fetterman, 56, disclosed that he was diagnosed with cardiomyopathy and another type of abnormal heartbeat, atrial fibrillation, after he suffered a stroke on the 2022 campaign trail.
YouTuber Brandon Buckingham Hospitalized in the ICU: “Things Are Not Looking Good”
November 22, 2025
YouTuber Brandon Buckingham, 30, has entered intensive care due to severe health problems, sharing a worrying update with his fans on social media. “In the ICU, my heart is failing, my lungs are failing, my liver and kidneys are failing,” Buckingham wrote on X on November 21. “Things are not looking good my friends. I love you guys.” This comes just two days after he revealed that doctors suspect he may have tuberculosis, septic pneumonia, and/or liver failure. Buckingham urged his followers to keep him in their thoughts, adding, “Pray for me guys.” . . . The YouTube creator, who has 1.21 million subscribers and is known for his documentary-style and man-on-the-street videos, has also been open about his struggles with mental health.
I miss you folks and the last few days of epic revelations are causing an eruption within me that can only be released by opening the valve and writing. I am so glad Jeffrey is taking care of you and in a sense, this post is selfishly for my own mental health.
It was true — what we feared and what we dissidents widely reported while being labelled anti-vaxxers, fringe minority and “yahoos” has at last been confirmed by Washington. Our loudest voices, the Freedom Convoy were charged, jailed, beaten and smeared for speaking out. It is de Villa and her ilk who the media and elites praise as COVID-19 heroes. Even as they were killing healthy children with vaccines.
As a Christian, I wish the people responsible would step forward, admit they were caught up in a mass hysteria event and work through how it all happened — perhaps at a national inquiry. Aren’t they even curious?
The newspaper copy below will live in infamy. It’s from the vaccine-positive Toronto Star, lauding the ghouls who lured children and their families into getting an unproven, ineffective and dangerous vaccine.
Dr. Eileen de Villa:
“I have to say that it was a real honour and privilege to be part of this afternoon’s event, observing those first children in that five to 11 age range getting that COVID-19 vaccine in what was a very, very exciting moment for them, for their families,” de Villa said after Tuesday’s event. “You could really feel the joy and relief that I know many of us have experienced as a result of having gotten the best protection we have against COVID-19.”
All of the children who participated in Tuesday’s event received a special superhero-themed vaccine passport courtesy of Toronto Public Health as well as a sticker.
They also got the opportunity to pose for photos along a special “selfie wall” that will be set up at all of Toronto’s vaccination sites.
Here is a video of Tory and de Villa at a child vaccination clinic. It plays like a horror movie now.
I remember the story in 2021 about our then-mayor psychotically bribing children to get the COVID-19 vaccine by promising ice cream on the way out. There was a lot of arguing about if the children were accompanied by adults, how does the legal issue of consent play-out for vaccines and children plus the usual — why are we, in our ragtag dissident communities the only ones who feel sick to their stomachs watching this?
Here is Tory doing his version of The Wire — only the dangerous “drug” isn’t heroin — its the jab. Don’t scroll past. This man must never hold power again.
There was never any science for safety and efficacy. And now it is officially confirmed they are deadly for kids and as Alex points out, those stats are based on voluntary reporting which means they are low.
Don’t forget that when teenage boys were coming down with vaccine-induced myocarditis, the response was — well it could have been caused by getting COVID-19 and even if it was from the shot, they are now protected from COVID-19 (untrue) which causes myocarditis (unclear).
Now — after five years, they are finally putting a warning on the product about this very thing.
June 25, 2025
FDA Safety Communication
Purpose: To inform the public and healthcare providers that FDA has required and approved updates to the Prescribing Information for Comirnaty (COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) manufactured by Pfizer Inc. and Spikevax (COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) manufactured ModernaTX, Inc. to include new safety information about the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following administration of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Specifically, FDA has required each manufacturer to update the warning about the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis to include information about (1) the estimated unadjusted incidence of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following administration of the 2023-2024 Formula of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and (2) the results of a study that collected information on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cardiac MRI) in people who developed myocarditis after receiving an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. FDA also required each manufacturer to describe the new safety information in the Adverse Reactions section of the Prescribing Information and in the Information for Recipients and Caregivers.
My mantra at that time, spread by this little podcast, was that healthy children had no chance of dying from COVID-19. No chance, at all. Our friend Marty Makary, now US Food and Drug Commissioner — reported he couldn’t find a single case. The big death clusters were always in the over eighty cohort and people with certain health issues, including obesity, which they never talked about.
Extra weight can cause the deadly cytokine storms — but that warning was lost to a tsunami of hysteria. I used to Google obesity and COVID-19 just to check. Barely a word. Not politically correct for the public health lefties to warn about given they were lost in their cult of “body positivity” while celebrating grotesquely obese women in bathing suits.
I’ll leave you with one of the craziest stories we did. The death of Emily Viegas, a thirteen-year-old Brampton girl whom media and politicians claim died of COVID-19, underpinning their case for endless lockdowns and vaccines for kids. My research told me she was killed by propaganda and politics. Not hyperbole and I’ll get into it soon.
stacks on this grave issue that threatens USA today…as well as Caribbean nations; cluster of conditions that occur together, increasing your risk of heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes;
includes increased blood pressure, high blood sugar, excess body fat around the waist, and abnormal cholesterol or triglyceride levels.
Metabolic syndrome (MS) WARNING (MS increases your risk of heart disease, stroke & type 2 diabetes), it is a major crisis in America & causes many deaths (10 most obese states in America)…Caribbean, it is a major problem as heart disease & diabetes surges & linked to poverty; includes increased blood pressure, high blood sugar, excess body fat around the waist, and abnormal cholesterol.
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The goal has to be to get your blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar, and waist size under control, and any reductions will help you as MS is a major killer; you do not think it is but it is catastrophic and excess weight weaves a devastating thread and as you saw, obesity was the super loaded risk factor behind age and even medical conditions where elevated age gave way to obesity, MS, and killed many people, especially minorities. Excess body weight is not necessarily a condition of affluence etc. and can be due to poverty. For example, many poor persons eat food high in starch e.g. potatoes and rice etc. that they can afford and load up on it. This is a major problem.
You have to make a lifelong commitment ‘to a healthy lifestyle that may prevent the conditions that cause metabolic syndrome. A healthy lifestyle includes:
Getting at least 30-45 minutes of physical activity most days; I argue at least 5 days a week
Eating plenty of vegetables, fruits, lean protein and whole grains
Limiting saturated fat and salt in your diet
Maintaining a healthy weight especially a reduced waist size
Not smoking
Addition of Vitamin D3 to your daily diet of at least 50 ng
We have to get into the mindset of health and well-being. COVID was a fraud non-pandemic and is done, so done and it was all a lie and farce and so it is time to move on with life. So is the proposed H5N1, H5N8 etc. fraud PCR created avian bird flu…all a lie…fear porn to sell vaccines…like how they sold the Malone Bourla Sahin deadly mRNA vaccine for the fraud COVID…
But metabolic syndrome is REAL! Look around, look at you.
Time to get active and living but healthy living. For you, your kids, grand kids. Seeking to suck the marrow out of the bones of life you are given. But you must strive for health and this is why The Wellness Company (TWC) led by Foster Coulson appealed to me.
You have to own your personal health. You have to return to that pre-COVID feeling. We seek accountability and justice for all the wrongs and fraud done across 3-4 years of COVID and especially by bought out crooked doctors who failed us and helped governments harm and even kill some of us. Unforgiveable. No amnesty. Yet as we seek proper legal inquiries and in proper courts with judges etc., we must go on and must begin urgently by improving our lifestyles. Yes, we can, even within our own socio-economic circumstance as we strive.
You have to keep the immune system strong, the heart strong.
It is no surprise and we live it daily, whether in America or Canada or UK or Caribbean, that the medical system is failing shackled by oppressive government health policies, and the lack of appreciation for natural approaches to cure illnesses. TWC seeks to be part of the solution.
By unequivocally and unapologetically standing up for medical freedom and the right to affordable health care, the company’s vision champions the right to make one’s own choices for their body.
Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP” I thank POTUS Trump for this leadership now! What is your view? Please let us debate; Trump wants to clean up Caribbean of drugs
Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago Kamla Persad-Bissessar is working with Trump at highest levels to rid Trinidad and Caribbean of illicit drugs flowing to USA. The Caribbean for once has someone doing good work for them in the PM, and she is led by Trump in this and I tip my hat to POTUS Trump! God bless them! This hindu Indian woman in Trinidad has shown more testicular fortitude than most.
END
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Reuters’ monthly poll shows analysts expect WTI to average $59 in 2026 and Brent $62.23 amid persistent oversupply.
Executives warn U.S. shale will stagnate or decline if WTI stays in the $50–$60 range.
Goldman Sachs forecasts even lower prices and says the oil market won’t rebalance until 2027 after a final major supply wave.
Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed on Friday.
The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, according to the poll of 35 analysts and economists. That’s lower compared to the $60.23 per barrel forecast in last month’s survey.
The analysts expect Brent Crude, the international benchmark, to average $62.23 per barrel next year, down from $63.15 forecast in the Reuters poll in October.
Most experts cited rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ as the key bearish factor for oil prices next year. But lingering geopolitical risks could put a floor under prices, the analysts reckon.
At the current price of WTI oil, shale will stagnate or start to decline, industry executives say, while shale producers look to do more with less by raising efficiency in production and capital allocation.
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, said that “At $60-$65 a barrel WTI oil prices, the US is probably plateau-ish.”
“But if prices stay at $60 or go into the $50s, you probably are plateauing or slightly declining,” the executive added.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said that oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.
The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week.
In the long term, supply growth will mostly come from OPEC, which has spare capacity and is investing in capacity expansion, according to Struyven.
Some modest growth could come from the U.S. shale patch, but this would require Brent at around $80 per barrel or so toward the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs.
END
From Oil War To ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’: Trump’s Extraordinary Saudi Pivot
Trump designates Saudi Arabia a “major non-NATO ally,” marking a dramatic turnaround from years of strained relations marked by an oil price war and diplomatic freezes.
In return, Washington expects Saudi Arabia to align more closely with U.S. interests.
The U.S. expects Riyadh to help keep prices within a “Trump Oil Price Range” of roughly $40–80 per barrel.
From the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017 to the start of his second term earlier this year, the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia shifted between tense and downright hostile.
Those years included an Oil Price War, the de facto Saudi leader labelled a murderer, and all lines of communication between the two sides grinding to a complete halt.
However, as Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sat next to each other at a black-tie dinner at the White House last week – with the former designating the latter’s country as “a major non-NATO ally” — all this must have seemed a distant past, and as L.P. Hartley put it: “They do things differently there”.
So, how does the future for the world’s top superpower and one of its top hydrocarbons powers look from here?
It is apposite to note here that this is not a meaningless designation from the U.S. for Saudi Arabia. Only 19 other countries — Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia – have such a standing in Washington’s eyes. Taiwan also has the same de facto designation, but does not officially enjoy the label, given the U.S.’s complicated ‘One China’ policy. Saudi Arabia’s new-found status also brings with it a host of economic and military advantages in its dealings with the U.S. and its allies, according to the State Department. These include eligibility for ‘loans of material, supplies, or equipment for cooperative research, development, testing, or evaluation purposes’, as well as for being a location for the placing of U.S.-owned War Reserve Stockpiles.
Saudi Arabia will also now be able to enter into agreements with the U.S. for its security forces’ training on a bilateral or multilateral basis, will be eligible for the priority delivery of ‘excess defence articles’ (including C-130 Hercules aircraft or frigates, at low or zero cost), and for the purchase of depleted uranium ammunition.
It will also be entitled to enter into agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense for research and development projects on defence equipment and munitions, and to procure explosives detection devices and other counter-terrorism research and development projects, among many other advantages. In short, Saudi Arabia is officially now regarded by the U.S. and its allies – including NATO members – as ‘one of ours’.
That said, this unofficial designation – and the official ‘major non-NATO ally’ counterpart – comes with its own obligations for Saudi Arabia. Beginning from a broad perspective, the Kingdom will be expected to tilt more towards the interests of the U.S. and its allies than those of the China-Russia bloc, regardless of the issue, and regardless of what has gone before. The years of cosying up with China after the devastating financial impact of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War of OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia, on the U.S. and its allies — analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order – are expected to count for nothing going forward. Nor is the adjunct relationship normalisation deal brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as the same highly-placed Washington-based legal source exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “In any direct conflicts of interest like this, we [the U.S.] expect Saudi to be on our side from now on,” he underlined. A firmer line from Saudi Arabia is expected by the U.S. to be drawn on the issue of the Kingdom’s earlier drift towards the formal economic, political, and security cooperation structures with China and Russia at their centres. This particularly applies to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which Saudi Arabia joined as a ‘dialogue partner’ in March 2023.
And Saudi Arabia’s continued support for the ongoing expansion of China’s multi-generational power-grab project, ‘The Belt and Road Initiative’ is also expected by Washington to be toned down.
This equally carries through into Saudi Aramco’s dealings with China, which had been characterised by chief executive officer Amin Nasser in the comment: “Ensuring the continuing security of China’s energy needs remains our highest priority – not just for the next five years but for the next 50 and beyond,” as also fully detailed in my latest book.
Instead of its formerly Sino-centric posture, Saudi Arabia is now expected by Washington to adopt an actively positive stance in the rollout of Trump’s broader vision for the Middle East. Just as in his first presidential term, this involves building out ‘relationship normalisation’ deals between key Arab states and the U.S.’s longstanding core ally in the region – Israel. This ‘Abraham Accords’ initiative had seen some success in that first term in office, with notable signatories being the UAE and Bahrain, before Trump’s tenure was cut short by his loss to Joe Biden in November 2020. However, there had been signs from MBS even then that he might look favourably on the Kingdom signing such a deal, albeit at a point after King Salman’s death. Given Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic and mediatory stance during the recent Israeli attacks on Hamas and Iran – themselves a response to the murder, torture and rape of hundreds of Israeli citizens by Hamas on 7 October 2023 – Washington is quietly confident that an ‘Abraham Accord’ by whatever name will be reached between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future. Indeed, Saudi Arabia (alongside Qatar – another ‘major non-NATO ally’, and Oman) reportedly relayed messages between Tehran and mediators from the U.S.-Israeli side, helping to shape ceasefire conditions.
The final part of Saudi Arabia’s obligations from the U.S. side will be full cooperation on the oil price.
Specifically, Washington expects active assistance in the oil markets to keep oil prices within the ‘Trump Oil Price Range’, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order.
Suffice it to say here, this sits roughly between a Brent price floor of US$40–45 per barrel (pb, the breakeven price plus a bit of profit for the bulk of U.S. shale oil producers) and a ceiling of US$75–80 pb (which ties into historical data showing that a gasoline price of under US$2 per gallon has been most advantageous for U.S. economic growth) – and the range is critical to Trump from an economic and political perspective.
On the former, historical data highlights that every US$10 pb or so change in the price of crude oil results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost. On the latter, since 1896, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election.
However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven occasions.
The same pattern broadly applies to the re-election chances of candidates of any sitting president’s party in U.S. mid-term elections as well. Trump may find a way to run again for President, but even if he does not, his Republican Party will want to optimise their chances for another of their members to be in the top job.
END
Kazakhstan Angrily Calls On Ukraine To Stop Black Sea Oil Terminal Attacks
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 – 12:25 PM
Kazakhstan is angrily denouncing and protesting the “deliberate attack” on critical energy transport infrastructure of the international Caspian Pipeline Consortium in the waters of Russia’s port city of Novorossiysk, after on Saturday a naval drone sent by Ukraine severely damaged one of its three loading points.
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday, “We emphasize that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium plays an important role in supporting the stability of the global energy system.”
It added: “We view what has occurred as an action harming the bilateral relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and we expect the Ukrainian side to take effective measures to prevent similar incidents in the future.”
This marks a rare moment that the former Soviet satellite state in central Asia is directly calling out the Ukrainian government and military.
A key section of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk has as a result of the attack been taken offline until repair and restoration works are completed.
The consortium’s over 930-mile pipeline connects oil fields in western Kazakhstan and Russian offshore fields in the Caspian Sea to a marine terminal in Novorossiysk, which means the location serves as the main export route for Kazakh oil, and is one of the world’s largest oil conduits by volume.
Regional sources note that the pipeline transports about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. According to the consortium’s confirmation of the weekend attack:
CPC said on Saturday that a November 29 naval drone attack on its terminal had “significantly damaged” Single-Point Mooring (SPM) 2 – essentially a floating buoy which connects to tankers to load oil.
“Further operation of Single Point Mooring 2 is not possible,” CPC said. “Loading operations and other operations were stopped [and] tankers were withdrawn from the CPC water area.”
“We believe that the attack on the CPC is an attack on the interests of the CPC member countries,” CPC said.
Kazakhstan Has No Choice. It Changes Oil Export Route After Attack on Novorossiysk
Following a nighttime attack by Ukrainian naval drones on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's marine terminal in Novorossiysk, Kazakhstan has announced that it is forced to seek alternative routes… pic.twitter.com/SerTXJtYK4
Moscow for its part decried the Ukrainian attacks as amounting to terrorism and further alleged that European powers are currently engaged in an intense hybrid war against Russia.
However, Ukraine can in turn point to constant and devastating Russian aerial attacks against its energy grid, ahead of what is likely to be a harsh winter – at a moment much of the country is under a rolling power blackout regimen.
Over in Europe, Hungary has also long complained of these Ukrainian attacks on pipelines and energy infrastructure. This summer crude oil flows from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline suffered forced disruptions after Ukrainian drone strike crippled transformer stations and other elements.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA ET AL
Trump Declares Airspace Above Venezuela “To Be Closed In Its Entirety”
Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 – 12:15 PM
President Trump said on Saturday on X that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela will “be closed in its entirety.”
“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP,” Trump wrote on X.
Earlier this month, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned pilots to “exercise caution” near Venezuela’s airspace due to the “worsening security situation and heightened military activity.
The Pentagon has been deploying warships and other military assets in the Caribbean this year. The deployment centers around bolstering Hemispheric Defense, and the Trump administration has formally characterized Nicolás Maduro as the head of a terrorist organization and considers his government illegitimate.
Joint Special Operations Command has ordered numerous airstrikes on speed boats carrying narcoterrorists. The intent is to stop drugs, destroy narco-boats, and kill the narcoterrorists that are part of a sophisticated network pumping drugs into America, resulting in the drug death overdose crisis that kills 100,000 Americans per year – one that the Biden-Harris regime ignored by opening borders to the third world.
On Friday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth dismissed fake news from corporate media about recent lethal kinetic strikes.
Hegseth explained:
As usual, the fake news is delivering more fabricated, inflammatory, and derogatory reporting to discredit our incredible warriors fighting to protect the homeland.
As we’ve said from the beginning, and in every statement, these highly effective strikes are specifically intended to be “lethal, kinetic strikes.” The declared intent is to stop lethal drugs, destroy narco-boats, and kill the narcoterrorists who are poisoning the American people. Every trafficker we kill is affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization.
The Biden administration preferred the kid gloves approach, allowing millions of people — including dangerous cartels and unvetted Afghans — to flood our communities with drugs and violence. The Trump administration has sealed the border and gone on offense against narcoterrorists. Biden coddled terrorists, we kill them.
Our current operations in the Caribbean are lawful under both U.S. and international law, with all actions in compliance with the law of armed conflict—and approved by the best military and civilian lawyers, up and down the chain of command.
Our warriors in SOUTHCOM put their lives on the line every day to protect the Homeland from narcoterrorists — and I will ALWAYS have their back.
Trump Rejects Maduro Request For Amnesty In Newly Disclosed Phone Call
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 – 02:35 PM
President Donald Trump has reportedly rejected Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s request for broad amnesty during a newly disclosed phone conversation last week, telling Maduro and his top advisers to drop their demands and swiftly exit Venezuela as US military pressure intensifies, which has lately included an order to halt all flights in the country’s sovereign airspace.
According to people familiar with the exchange who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, Trump and Maduro discussed a sweeping amnesty plan, during which time Maduro is said to have sought blanket legal protection for himself, his senior officials, and their families. “Trump told Maduro that if he didn’t leave willingly, the US would consider other options including the use of force, according to people familiar with discussion,” WSJ wrote.
Many of those same officials are at this moment under US sanctions or face criminal charges related to corruption and narcotics trafficking.
President Trump is said to have dismissed the proposal while warning Maduro that the United States would ramp up military action if he refused to step down. This is consistent with prior Washington regime change operations in places like the Middle East, which has seen many longtime rulers overthrown – including Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and Bashar al-Assad.
A number of top-ranking Maduro officials have been called out by the Trump administration, and urged to leave the country immediately – including Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez.
Trump while speaking at Mar-a-Lago during Thanksgiving, apparently days after the secretive Maduro phone call, hinted that US ground operations against Venezuela could begin soon. “The land is easier. That’s going to start very soon. We warned them, stop sending poison into our country.”
According to some of the details of the newly disclosed call via The New York Times:
The conversation took place late in the week, two of the people said. It included a discussion about a possible meeting between the two men in the United States, according to the people with knowledge of the matter, who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. There are no plans at the moment for such a meeting, one of the people said.
The phone call, which included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, came days before a State Department designation of Mr. Maduro as the leader of what the administration considers a foreign terrorist organization, the Cartel de los Soles, came into effect.
After this, Trump announced that the airspace over Venezuela should now be considered closed. “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP,” Trump wrote on X.
Earlier this month, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned pilots to “exercise caution” near Venezuela’s airspace due to the “worsening security situation and heightened military activity.
The Pentagon has been deploying warships and other military assets in the Caribbean this year. The deployment centers around bolstering Hemispheric Defense, and the Trump administration has formally characterized Nicolás Maduro as the head of a terrorist organization and considers his government illegitimate.
Quick response after the US orders what’s effectively a total airspace closure over the Latin American country:
This policy hearkens back to the first Trump administration, during which time there appeared to be clandestine efforts to foment unrest or else a military coup. These activities didn’t amount to much, however, and Maduro had vehemently denounced external meddling and vowed to go after and punish collaborators.
Last year, on the Trump campaign trail, the would-be second term president didn’t mention anything in his policy platform about sweeping regime change action in Venezuela – which likely would have been met with a lot of opposition within the MAGA movement.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1629 DOWN 0.0033 PTS OR 33 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MIXED
USA/ YEN 155.18 DOWN 0.929 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3283 UP .0007 OR 7 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3981 UP 0.0013 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.41 PTS OR 0.65%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 174.77 PTS OR 0.67%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.59%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 174,77 PTS OR 0.67%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.41 POINTS OR 0.65%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.59 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 950.63 PTS OR 1.39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4253.15
silver:$57.44
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 99.17 DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.069 % UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.817% UP 7 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.389 UP 4 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.225 UP 8 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.468 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7485 UP 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1638 UP 0.0025 OR 25 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.89 UP 1.22 OR YEN IS UP 122 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4920 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.264 UP 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS pts to 1.3963
Silver Surges, Crypto Purges As BoJ Hawks Battle Fed Doves
WRAP UP;
Markets start December choppy – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 03:50 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold up
REAR VIEW: US ISM Mfg PMI unexpectedly declines; BoJ’s Ueda touts December hike; UK & US agree to a zero-tariff pharma deal; China Final PMIs disappoint; Mixed European PMIs; Vanke reportedly requested 12 months to pay its bonds; BP says Olympic Pipeline returns to full service.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks ultimately finished the first session of December trading lower. The session was choppy with equity futures sold overnight alongside caution in APAC trade in response to soft China PMIs. Pressure extended once Europe arrived, with the DAX lagging amid a downward revision to the German manufacturing PMI. However, around the opening bell, the risk tone in equities started to improve throughout the afternoon, before fading into the closing bell. T-notes were sold across the curve in a steeper fashion. The downside tracked JGBs overnight following hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda, while rising energy prices also weighed. However, the sharp selling occurred during US trade amid a slew of corporate supply, namely Merck’s (MRK) USD 8bln 8-parter, which led to rate lock selling. The US highlights included the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which surprisingly fell alongside a drop in New Orders, while Prices Paid accelerated, and employment dropped. Meanwhile, over the weekend, US President Trump said he knows who he is going to pick for Fed Chair Powell’s successor, and Hassett said he would accept the job if it were offered to him. Energy prices were higher after Ukraine continued its attacks on Russian oil facilities, tensions increasing between the US and Venezuela, while OPEC+ held output steady over the weekend, as expected. In FX, the Dollar was flat while CAD lagged on weak energy prices and Yen outperformed on the Ueda commentary, which touted a December rate hike from the BoJ.
US
ISM: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 from 48.7, despite expectations for a rise to 49.0 – remaining in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month. Within the report, however, the overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month (Manufacturing PMI of 42.3 or above generally indicates expansion in the overall economy). New Orders dropped to 47.4 from 49.4, showing the third straight month of contraction. The Production index returned to expansion, rising to 51.4. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries indicated faster delivery performance after three consecutive months (and 14 of the previous 16 months) in slower territory, falling to 49.3 from 54.2. Inventories rose to 48.9 from October’s 45.8. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid component rose to 58.5 from 58.0, despite expectations for a fall to 57.0 (some had anticipated 59.0), showing price increases accelerated slightly in November vs October. The report notes, “The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminium prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods. ” The employment index fell to 44 from 46, posting its tenth consecutive month of contraction, with 36 of the last 43 months contracting. The report noted that “For every comment on hiring, there were 3.4 on reducing headcounts, equaling the ratio in October. Companies continued to focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand. The main head-count management strategies remain layoffs and not filling open positions.”
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 16+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-26+
T-notes sold on a slew of corporate issuances. At settlement, 2-year +4.8bps at 3.539%, 3-year +6.3bps at 3.553%, 5-year +7.5bps at 3.673%, 7-year +7.6bps at 3.864%, 10-year +7.7bps at 4.096%, 20-year +7.9bps at 4.711%, 30-year +7.4bps at 4.745%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +1.2bps at 2.721%, 3-year BEI +2.4bps at 2.427%, 5-year BEI +0.8bps at 2.241%, 10-year BEI +1.3bps at 2.229%, 30-year BEI +1.8bps at 2.209%.
THE DAY: T-notes were lower across the curve on Monday, with global fixed income weighed on overnight after BoJ Governor Ueda hinted at a December rate hike, while rising crude prices bolstered inflation expectations. However, the downside in T-notes accelerated once US trade was underway, seemingly led by rate lock selling in response to corporate supply, with c. eight IG deals announced today. The Merck (MRK) deal was the highlight, looking to sell USD 8bln in an 8-parter. The curve bear steepened with the long-end yields rising the most in response to the corporate issuance, but also perhaps on rising term premium. US President Trump told reports that he knows who he is going to pick for the next Fed Chair, while NEC Director Hassett said he would be happy to take the job from Chair Powell. Kalshi prediction markets have Hassett as the clear favourite, rising to 79% today from just above the 50% probability seen on Friday. The rise in term premium is in response to a potentially less independent Federal Reserve if Hassett takes the helm, given his close proximity to US President Trump. Meanwhile, oil prices saw notable upside as Ukraine struck two Russian tankers in the Black Sea as well as more Russian oil refineries, reducing the chances of a ceasefire and further impacting supply. The higher oil prices weighed on Bunds on fears of higher energy costs in Europe, which also pressured USTs. There is no Fed speak due to the blackout period ahead of next week’s rate decision and projections, but Chair Powell is scheduled to speak overnight, albeit it will not be about current monetary policy or the economic outlook. The data highlight was the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which surprisingly declined while Prices Paid accelerated and employment slowed. The data briefly stopped the decline in T-notes, but it was short-lived, and T-notes sold off gradually into settlement.
SUPPLY:
Bills
US sold USD 79bln of 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.635%, B/C 3.02x
US sold USD 88bln of 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.725%, B/C 2.82x
US to sell USD 75bln of 6-week bills on December 2nd (prev. 85bln)
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 23bps (prev. 19bps), January 30bps (prev. 27bps), March 36bps (prev. 35bps).
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 3.24bln (prev. 7.56bln) across 9 counterparties (prev. 8)
NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 26bln (prev. 24.4bln) across two operations
EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 90bln (prev. 89bln) on November 28th
SOFR at 4.12% (prev. 4.05%), volumes at USD 3.361tln (prev. 3.297tln) on November 28th.
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED 0.77 HIGHER AT 59.32/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 0.79 HIGHER AT USD 63.17/BBL
Crude prices rose on continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, the OPEC+ decision to pause output through Q1’26, and diminishing US-Venezuela relations. The Ukrainian attacks resulted in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspending loadings at its terminals. The operator said mooring 2 was significantly damaged by unmanned boats and cannot continue operating, disrupting shipments of most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports routed through Russia. Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, as widely expected, maintaining ~3.24mln bpd of output cuts, after releasing 2.9mln bpd since April 2025. Members also approved a mechanism to assess maximum production capacity between January and September 2026 for setting 2027 baselines. WTI and Brent peaked in overnight trade at USD 59.97/bbl and USD 63.35/bbl, respectively, before paring around half of the gains afterwards. Another subject that poses a risk to oil supply is US President Trump’s souring relations with Venezuela, with the latest escalation coming from Trump, who is considering closing the airspace over Venezuela. Separately, BP’s Olympic Pipeline (325k bpd) returned to full service.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.53% at 6,813, NDX -0.36% at 25,343, DJI -0.89% at 47,289, RUT -1.25% at 2,469
SECTORS: Utilities -2.35%, Health -1.49%, Industrials -1.49%, Real Estate -1.39%, Communication Services -1.01%, Financials -0.86%, Materials -0.34%, Consumer Staples -0.19%, Consumer Discretionary +0.02%, Technology +0.07%, Energy +0.91%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.01% at 5,669, Dax 40 -1.00% at 23,597, FTSE 100 -0.18% at 9,703, CAC 40 -0.32% at 8,097, FTSE MIB -0.22% at 43,259, IBEX 35 +0.11% at 16,389, PSI -0.04% at 8,107, SMI +0.01% at 12,835, AEX +0.45% at 948.
STOCK SPECIFICS
Synopsys (SNPS): NVIDIA (NVDA) invested USD 2bln in SNPS stock at USD 414.79/shr.
Leggett & Platt (LEG): Somnigroup (SGI) proposes to buy LEG in an all-stock deal.
Tesla (TSLA): Tesla’s November registrations in France, Denmark and Sweden halved from a year earlier.
PTC Therapeutics (PTCT): Downgraded at RBC Capital to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Outperform.
American Tower (AMT): Downgraded at Barclays to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’.
Zscaler (ZS): Downgraded at Bernstein to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’.
Chime Financial (CHYM): Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
Google (GOOGL) is bringing Gemini3 to AI mode in Google search in nearly 120 countries and territories in English.
NVIDIA (NVDA) released a new open-source software aimed at speeding up the development of self-driving cars using new “reasoning” techniques in AI.
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) November Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs): 4.27mln, -4% M/M.
Bidders for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) say they’ve been given every indication from the WBD board that either a winner or a new round of bids will be announced this week after second-round bids are delivered today, Fox reports.
Microsoft (MSFT) CEO said his co. is increasingly looking to Europe as a key region for its AI strategy, according to Politico.
FX
The Dollar Index was flat to start the week as JPY outperformance was offset by weakness in GBP, CHF, and CAD. Through the European morning, USD was sold broadly, with JPY strength behind the bulk of the move, thanks to hawkish BoJ Ueda remarks. Also weighing is the strengthening call across Wall St. that the Fed will be cutting by 25bps at the December meeting. Now, money markets assign ~92% chance of a cut, after being ~70% before Thanksgiving Day. The ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed a surprise decline in the headline, indicating a worsening outlook for the sector as declines in New Orders and Employment weighed. DXY hit lows of 99.01 in the US morning before paring losses into the evening.
JPY gathered all the focus to start the week following overnight comments from BoJ Governor Ueda. Overall, the remarks were seen as hawkish, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the unusual move from the Governor to refer to a specific meeting in such a speech (‘make decisions as appropriate’), and as such, believe the likelihood of a December rate hike has further increased. Citi also pointed out that such phrasing is similar to that of Deputy Governor Himino before the hike in January this year: “The board will discuss whether to raise the policy rate or not”. As it stands, a 33% chance of a 25bps hike is priced in, with USD/JPY now hovering at ~ 155.50, but off 154.67 lows.
European Manufacturing PMIs were mixed for November. Germany and EZ missed, France was in line, and Italy and Spain topped expectations. The releases had little bearing on EUR/USD, with focus on US data this week (ADP, Challenger, PCE), as well as US Envoy Wiktoff’s visit to Russia this week. The latter comes after a stall in a possible Ukraine/Russia ceasefire, as Russia rejected Ukraine’s shortened version of Trump’s peace plan.
Antipodes were modestly firmer but with strength capped by a disappointing Chinese PMI report, with Manufacturing once again deteriorating while services surprised with a contraction. G10 currencies at pixel time that are weaker vs USD include CAD, GBP, and CHF. Sterling failed to hold onto earlier strength, which was somewhat supported by the UK and US agreeing to a zero-tariff pharma deal, but calls for the UK NHS to increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%; Cable now sits lower at 1.3210 from earlier 1.3275 highs.
DATA RELEASES
‘Worse Than COVID’: Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 10:08 AM
This morning’s survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in ‘soft’ data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data…
But the picture remains mixed:
S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).
ISM’s Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.
Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, “the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth.”
Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening…
For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.
“Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.
In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products.
“This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories.”
ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump’s feet in Washington:
“New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)
“We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)
“No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
“Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
“The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
“Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)
However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.
“Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.”
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
The ‘K-Shaped’ Economy In One Graph
Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 – 03:45 PM
Tuesday’s weak Consumer Confidence report was a good reminder of why some economists are calling our economy the K shaped economy.
As RealInvestmentAdvice.com reports, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, below expectations of 93.
Moreover, it sits at levels similar to those of early 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the economy. Similarly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is slightly above 70-year lows.
Both surveys indicate that a large majority of consumers are struggling.
Within the surveys, the outlook on current jobs and job availability is low.
Inflation, tariffs, politics, and the government shutdown are also weighing on the consumer and limiting big-ticket spending plans.
A K shaped economy describes a post-crisis recovery where different parts of the economy and society are performing at sharply diverging rates, forming the two arms of the letter “K.”:
The upper arm (going up): Sectors, companies, assets, and people that benefit from the recovery and, in many cases, are wealthier than before the pandemic. This includes investors in technology stocks, big tech companies, the luxury sectors, high-income professionals, and asset owners.
The lower arm (going down): Sectors, small businesses, and people that continue to decline or stagnate even as the overall economy appears to improve. Examples include: the hospitality and travel industries, many lower-priced retail outlets, low-wage service workers, small businesses, and many middle-class and lower-income households.
The graph below showing the stark divergence between the S&P 500 and the University of Michigan consumer survey best depicts the K shaped economy.
You can make similar K shaped plots comparing stock markets, GDP, and megacap corporate profits versus small business closures, wage growth for low-income workers, and economic activity in the manufacturing sector.
The question is – how do the jaws of that widening alligator’s mouth snap shut? Sentiment surge or equity purge?
END
(COURTESY: MISES)
The Impossible Two Percent: Why Central Banks Cannot Afford Price Stability
The Two percent inflation target—monetary policy’s sacred commandment for three decades—has become structurally impossible to achieve. Not because central bankers lack skill, but because every attempt to hit the target destroys the financial architecture that previous monetary expansion built. This is the endgame of central planning: a system that cannot tolerate its own success criteria without collapsing.
The Arbitrary Anchor
New Zealand invented the two percent target in 1989 by looking backward at what inflation had been when things felt stable—hardly rigorous science. Other central banks copied this guess, transforming it into dogma. But the economy of 2025 bears no resemblance to 1989. We’ve financialized every asset class, built supply chains optimized for fragility, and erected a debt tower requiring perpetual refinancing at suppressed rates just to avoid collapse. The two percent target was designed for a world we’ve already destroyed.
The Cantillon Trap: Winners and Losers by Design
Monetary expansion doesn’t spread evenly. New money concentrates where it enters—in financial assets, real estate, and the balance sheets of those with credit access. This creates two economies: one for asset-holders, enriched by expansion; another for wage-earners, crushed by the cost increases that follow.
To hit 2 percent consumer inflation, central banks must restrict money supply enough to destroy demand among ordinary households—the people furthest from the monetary spigot. But they’ve already inflated assets to the point where millions of families, pension funds, and governments depend on continued expansion to stay solvent. Tightening enough to hit 2 percent CPI means liquidating the phantom wealth propping up the entire system. We glimpsed this in 2022-2023: modest rate increases triggered bank failures and sovereign debt crises.
The trap is complete: monetary expansion enriches the few while punishing the many, but contraction would bankrupt both.
The Measurement Mirage
The CPI doesn’t measure what people experience. Housing costs appear through “owner’s equivalent rent”—a fiction understating reality by a significant amount. Healthcare, education, childcare—costs that have doubled or tripled—receive minimal weight. Meanwhile, falling electronics and import prices pull the average down.
A family whose rent has doubled, childcare tripled, and healthcare quadrupled is told inflation is “only” three percent. Central banks fight to hit a target disconnected from lived reality, using tools that damage those already most hurt by mismeasured inflation.
The Sovereign Debt Vise
The United States now carries $38.12 trillion in debt, with deficits locked in structural overdrive. For fiscal year 2025 (ending September 30, 2025), the federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.8 trillion—marking one of the largest annual deficits in US history in nominal terms. In calendar year 2025 alone (through November), the debt has already climbed by over $1 trillion, representing one of the fastest accumulations outside of pandemic-era spikes.
The Fed cannot pursue “price stability” without triggering sovereign default. It cannot monetize the debt without abandoning its inflation target. Monetary and fiscal policy have fused into a single system where every path leads to ruin.
The Trump Tariff Dividend: Fiscal Lunacy as Stimulus
Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” crystallizes the absurdity. Tariffs might generate $300-400 billion annually. Distributing $2,000 to 150 million Americans costs $300 billion, consuming all revenue and leaving nothing for Trump’s simultaneous promise to “substantially pay down national debt.”
But fiscal arithmetic is merely the surface problem. This is stimulus injected into an economy already overheating from tariff-induced price increases. Tariffs function as a regressive consumption tax, raising prices across the board. What is the proposed solution? Send everyone cash, which immediately bids prices higher in a textbook demand-pull spiral. We learned this during the pandemic: stimulus checks fueled the inflation that hit 9 percent.
The circularity is perfect: American consumers pay the tariffs, raising prices. The government sends that revenue back, and consumers use it to pay higher tariff prices. It’s a perpetual motion machine of economic waste. Tariffs misallocate capital by making inefficient domestic production appear profitable, while dividends provide purchasing power divorced from productive activity. We’re restricting supply through tariffs while boosting demand through dividends—engineering an inflationary explosion while calling it economic nationalism.
The QT Surrender: Why the Fed Can’t Stop Printing
The Federal Reserve announced in October 2025 that quantitative tightening will end in December after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. This isn’t a policy choice—it’s mathematical surrender.
The Fed’s balance sheet remains bloated with low-yielding assets from QE rounds dating to 2008, earning two-three percent while the Fed pays 4.5 percent on reserves it created to buy them. The Fed operated at a loss for three consecutive years.
But the Fed cannot shrink its balance sheet to pre-crisis levels without triggering a liquidity crisis. The modern financial system operates under an “ample reserves framework”—a euphemism for permanent monetary expansion. Banks, pension funds, and Treasury markets have become structurally dependent on massive reserve creation. When the Fed attempted modest QT reductions, repo markets showed stress. They’re stopping, not because inflation is conquered, but because the financial system cannot handle genuine monetary normalization.
The QT cessation sets the stage for QE’s inevitable return. The Fed is now in what Austrian economists call the “crack-up boom” phase—the point where monetary authorities choose between deflation (and cascading debt defaults) or continued inflation (and currency destruction). The QT cessation signals their choice.
The Perfect Storm
The Fed needs tight policy to combat inflation—inflation partly driven by tariffs Trump defends as revenue generators. But tightening is impossible because government debt service already consumes $1 trillion annually and the financial system requires ongoing liquidity support. So the Fed will maintain its swollen balance sheet, ready to expand again at the first crisis signal, while Trump pumps fiscal stimulus through tariff dividends into the economy.
The 2 percent inflation target becomes farcical. How can the Fed hit an inflation target when fiscal policy is overtly inflationary, when monetary policy cannot genuinely tighten without breaking the system, and when political pressure tilts entirely toward more spending? The Fed’s QT announcement is an admission they’ve lost control, even if they won’t admit it.
Policy Checkmate—The Impossible Choice
High inflation destroys savings, distorts price signals, and creates social instability. But we must be honest: the 2 percent target cannot be achieved without either.
The options seem to be: 1) a deflationary depression that liquidates the debt overhang—and likely the social order with it; 2) a financial repression that slowly confiscates wealth through negative real rates; or, 3) a restructuring of how we conceptualize monetary stability in a hyper-financialized economy.
The first option is politically impossible and humanly catastrophic. The second is what we’re already doing, just with more dishonesty. The third requires admitting central banking as currently practiced has failed.
The Austrian Vindication
Precision inflation targeting was always hubris—imposing mechanical control over an organic, complex system. The error wasn’t choosing two percent specifically; it was believing any centrally-planned monetary system could generate sustainable prosperity while coupled with fiscal incontinence.
We’ve created a monetary system that cannot tolerate the price discovery necessary for genuine economic coordination. Every attempt to hit an arbitrary inflation target generates distortions making the next cycle more severe. The Fed’s balance sheet cannot shrink because the economy was restructured around permanent monetary expansion. Interest rates cannot normalize because the debt burden makes higher rates catastrophic.
The 2 percent target isn’t failing because central bankers lack competence—it’s failing because it represents an impossible constraint on a system that has already inflated beyond the point of return.
The Endgame
The question isn’t whether we’ll abandon the two percent target. The Fed’s QT cessation and Trump’s tariff dividend have already abandoned it in practice, whatever they claim in theory. The real question is whether we’ll do so explicitly, through honest debate about what comes after central banking’s failure, or implicitly, through the slow-motion credibility crisis we’re witnessing—where inflation stays persistently above target, the Fed’s balance sheet can never shrink, and fiscal policy becomes increasingly untethered from reality.
This is the endgame of monetary central planning: not with hyperinflationary bang or deflationary whimper, but with the confused stumbling of policymakers who cannot admit their tools have welded them into a cage. The two percent target, tariff dividends, ample reserves frameworks, and technocratic jargon cannot obscure the simple truth: we have built an economic system requiring perpetual monetary expansion to avoid collapse, and we’ve run out of ways to pretend this is sustainable policy rather than slow-motion currency debasement with extra steps.
Obamacare’s Costly Illusion Of Affordability: From Subsidies To Serfdom
Since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), health insurance premiums have steadily increased, as has healthcare’s proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). In employer-sponsored insurance, escalating premiums are the primary driver for stagnant take-homewages.
The structure of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and employer-sponsored insurance conceal the true cost of healthcare. The recent government shutdown exposed this underlying flaw to public scrutiny.
Should the premium tax credits lapse as expected, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) projects that premiums for Americans will increase by more than 75 percent. This stark price increase will now confront consumers, leaving patients worried and dissatisfied.
Both the ACA and employer-sponsored healthcare obscure actual healthcare costs, promoting moral hazard and distorting economic incentives.
Unraveling the Mechanics of ACA Premium Subsidies
The ACA in 2010 established premium tax credits (PTCs) to enhance the affordability of health insurance through Marketplace exchanges. These refundable credits, authorized under IRC Section 36B, reduce premiums for households with modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) at or above 100 percent of the federal poverty level ($15,650 for an individual in 2025). In 2021, enhancements increased credit amounts for existing eligible participants and extended eligibility to those exceeding 400 percent of the federal poverty level. The 2023 resolution of the “family glitch” enables dependents to access PTCs when family coverage is deemed unaffordable.
Absent congressional intervention, enhanced subsidies will expire in 2025, potentially doubling premiums and disenrolling millions, thus undermining the coverage gains championed by ACA advocates. Estimates suggest that without renewal, enrollees would face an average premium increase of $1,016 on the marketplace. The expiration of enhanced PTCs is projected to escalate annual premium costs for subsidized enrollees by 114 percent, rising from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.
In essence, the collapse of this support structure threatens the stability of the ACA’s framework. The house of cards comes crashing down.
The Hidden Challenge With Employer-Based Coverage
A Kaiser Family Foundation survey revealed that the average premium for employer-sponsored family coverage increased by 26 percent from 2020 to 2025. In 2024, the average annual cost for single coverage was $8,951, with employees typically contributing $1,368, while family coverage averaged $25,572, with employees paying $6,296.
A recent Mercer survey reported that employers expect a 6.5 percent rise in employee healthcare costs for 2026, the largest increase since 2010. Likewise, a Business Group on Health poll indicated employers anticipate a 7.6 percent surge in healthcare expenses in 2026, the most significant jump in over a decade.
Employees often remain unaware of true healthcare costs, as their contributions are partially offset by tax-advantaged employer benefits. However, these costs indirectly suppress wage growth. Meanwhile, healthcare inflation consistently outpaces general wage increases.
Conversely, insurance companies are thriving.
Since the ACA’s passage, the top five health insurers’ annual profits have soared by 230 percent. In 2024, UnitedHealth’s CEO earned $26.3 million, Cigna’s CEO $23.2 million, and others followed suit.
This dynamic does not reflect true capitalism or free-market principles but rather crony capitalism bolstered by government subsidies.
The Core Economic Problem
Imagine a pizza system mirroring healthcare. Employers subsidize 80 percent of a Supreme Pizza plan for employees, lowering the visible cost per slice to $2, though the true price is $10. Uninformed consumers add extravagant toppings—pineapple, anchovies, glitter sprinkles—perceiving them as nearly free. With numerous pizza varieties available, consumption surges. Moral hazard drives daily orders, even for breakfast pizza, escalating demand. Pizzerias, aware of this price ignorance, promote lavish new combinations. An ACA-style “PizzaCare” program caps costs at a fraction of income, encouraging excessive consumption without consideration. Prices skyrocket, benefiting pizza companies. Government subsidies intensify this distortion, further inflating costs. Employees relish their pizza; it becomes part of their daily or weekly routine. They are unaware of its true cost, but may notice and object if their pizza price component rises from $2 to $2.50 or $3.
Hayek’s Warnings and the Dependency Trap
Notably, Marketplace enrollment doubled from 11 million to 24 million following the introduction of enhanced premium tax credits in 2021.
This is Hayek’s cautionary narrative.
The critical issue lies in the vulnerability of ordinary individuals, distracted by whether Notre Dame will secure a College Football Playoff berth, the Islanders will win the Stanley Cup, or their seven-year-old will score in Saturday’s soccer game. These individuals face significant financial strain, having grown reliant on subsidies to afford healthcare. The broader healthcare system similarly depends on government support, embodying Hayek’s warning of diminishing personal autonomy and deepening entanglement with state intervention.
In “The Road to Serfdom,” Friedrich Hayek vividly depicts government overreach as a frog slowly boiling in a pot, lulled by promises of security. The ACA’s subsidies, like a siren call, have enticed 24.2 million enrollees with affordable premiums, obscuring the escalating true cost of healthcare. Once established, these subsidies become indispensable, with millions now dependent on them, as evidenced by projected premium spikes.
Should the enhanced subsidies, originally temporary, expire as planned in 2025, the resulting premium surge reveals the trap: dependence on state generosity. As Hayek cautioned, this reliance, cloaked in equity and justice, erodes freedom, empowering a bureaucracy to dictate government-directed winners and losers.
Once entrenched, dismantling programs initially deemed temporary becomes politically toxic. Individuals adapt to a subsidized reality, viewing affordable premiums as essential, mirroring Hayek’s portrayal of populations bound to state largesse. The ACA’s framework, with 24.2 million enrollees dependent on credits, fosters a cycle of deepening reliance. Any rollback, such as the looming 2025 expiration, risks economic disruption, entrenching a system where insurers profit from inflated costs while patients, shielded from true price signals, remain tethered to subsidies.
This validates Hayek’s thesis: centralized interventions breed dependency, eroding choice and fueling a gradual descent into serfdom.
END
4 Dead, 10 Wounded After Mass Shooting At Stockton, California Banquet Hall
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 – 06:35 AM
Four people were killed and ten others wounded late Saturday in Stockton, California, after a gunman opened fire inside a banquet hall during a family birthday party. This is a shooting that authorities say appears to have been a “targeted” one.
Mass Shooting in Stockton: 19 Shot, 4 Dead at Children’s Party. Location is banquet hall on Lucille and Thornton.
The San Joaquin County Sheriff’s Office said it received reports of a shooting in the 1900 block of Lucile Avenue around 6 p.m., the office said.
Stockton Vice Mayor Jason Lee said, on a social media post, a children’s birthday party was the site of a mass shooting, adding that an “ice cream shop should never be a place where families fear for their lives.”
However, the Associated Press reported that the shooting occurred at a banquet hall, and that the victims were both children and adults.
The sheriff’s office said there are indications that the shooting could have been a targeted attack.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Office wrote on X that they’ve “briefed on the horrific shooting in Stockton.”
Fox News reported early Sunday that the shooter remains at large, prompting a massive manhunt as authorities work to track down the suspect.
*Developing…
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report December 1, 2025 Issue 7629
Independent View of the News
ESZs rallied to 6841.25 (+13.25) at 20:23 ET on Thursday night. After a retreat to 6832.25 at 21:12, a modest rebound appeared. Near 21:44 ET, a cooling system malfunction at a data center in the Chicago area halted trading in all CME products.
ESZs resumed trading near 8:30 ET. After a decline to 6831.25 at 9:38 ET, ESZs zoomed to 6856.00 (+28.00) at 11:16 ET on trader euphoria and November performance gaming. ESZs then sank to 6842.00 at 11:27 ET on liquidation for the European close.
Someone manipulated ESZs to 6852.50 at 11:35 ET. ESZs inched up to a daily high of 6856.75 at 12:08 ET and then fell to 6845.25 at 12:45 ET. You know what happened next! Someone manipulated ESZs to a new daily high of 6863.75 at 12:59 ET. ESZs vacillated wildly during the last minute of trading.
How many billions of dollars in performance fees were generated by the illegal manipulation? The intensity of manipulation to game performance used to appear on the penultimate day of a marking period to avoid regulator inquiry. But regulators no longer care about upward market manipulation.
@charliebilello: US Retail Sales have increased 3.9% over the past year at the same time US Consumer Sentiment has plummeted to near record lows. We’ve never seen a divergence this wide between what consumers are saying and what they are doing.https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1994426038651085284
German Inflation (HICP) Jumps to Nine-Monthas ECB Ponders Outlook – BBG Germany’s inflation rate rose… 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% last month… Economists… expected a smaller pickup to 2.4%… [-0.5% m/m] (HCIP – Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices)
Nov Best S&P Groups: Healthcare +8.23%, Com Services +4.83%, Energy +2.53%, Con Staples +1.37% Worst S&P Groups: Info Tech -5.02%, Cons Discretion -1.54%, Industrials -0.79%, Real Estate -0.18%
Positive aspects of previous session Fed rate cut fever and manipulation to game November performance created a moderate rally. Fangs and trading sardines led the equity rally because they are over-owned The illegal late manipulation to game Nov performance and boost fees occurred.
Negative aspects of previous session Silver (spot) surged to an all-time high of 56.4239. Copper soared; gold rallied smartly. USZs declined moderately.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the equity surge induce some Fed officials to vote against a rate cut?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6839.90 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6850.86; 6819.75
@FoxNews: DHS says Afghan national Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, admitted under Operation Allies Welcome, was arrested after posting a TikTok video indicating he was building a bomb with an intended target in the Fort Worth area of Texas… https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1994823636998574134
@WhiteHouse: “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions… & remove anyone who is not a net asset to the U.S., or is incapable of loving our Country… Only REVERSE MIGRATION can cure this situation…” – President Trump https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1994413588174315529
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 11.29.25: Immigration and Nationality Act, Section 212(f): “Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.”
11 US warships and 15,000 troops now in Caribbean amid escalating Venezuela tensionshttps://trib.al/pTnj2g6
@jenvanlaar: NEW INFORMATION ABOUT WASHINGTON, DC TERROR ATTACK According to multiple national security, military, and law enforcement sources speaking to RedState on condition of anonymity, the biometric database is being accessed to identify all of Rahmanullah Lakanwal’s contacts, all of his possible connections, and to absolutely positively identify him and his potential co-conspirators. Also, prior to Wednesday’s attack there were hundreds of Google inquiries of Lakanwal’s name and Washington, DC, raising the possibility that this was coordinated with others, or at the very least that a large network knew the terroristic act was going to occur. Those IPs are being tracked. Law enforcement agencies throughout the country have been given alerts on certain key contacts that he is known to have had from Washington State to San Diego to DC and to several other states…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moves to ‘cut off’ illegal migrants from tax benefits, cross-border money transfers: ‘No place for you in our financial system’ https://trib.al/rY0Y6BJ
Fed Balance Sheet: -$2.864B; Reserves: +$7.943B
Today – Traders want to play for the Monday Rally and start-of-December buying. However, equity futures are down smartly on Sunday night, instead of rallying on the usual buying, because Bitcoin is getting crushed (-4.6% at 20:00 ET) and Japan’s bond market is down again.
ESZs are -32.50; NQZs are -162.00; Dec AU is +11.40; and USZs are -7/32 at 20:17 ET.
Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 51.9; Nov ISM Mfg. 49, Prices Paid 57.5
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6724; 100-day MA: 6569; 150-day MA: 6358; 200-day MA: 6177 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,753; 100-day MA: 45,838; 150-day MA: 44,709; 200-day MA: 43,950 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
General Flynn Calls for National Address from Trump on Color Revolution Threat It reads as if the script were lifted straight from a CIA playbook for overseas regime change operations, using pressure campaigns so obvious now that even the average American can recognize what’s going on: delegitimization campaign against Trump; framing normal authority as “illegitimate”; attempting to mobilize military disobedience; attempt to trigger defection in the military and intelligence world. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/general-flynn-calls-national-address-trump-color-revolution-threat
Ex-federal prosecutor @shipwreckedcrew: I agree with other conservative legal commentators that the video by Dem. Lawmakers is not an act of “sedition” as that term has been used at common law, or as it is used in the “seditious conspiracy” statute — 18 U.S.C. Sec. 2384. As someone who has defended against that charge, and litigated it’s meaning, it requires the use or planned use of force. But Section 2387 does not require the use of force. It is in the same sequence of statutes, it applies in peacetime — passed in 1948 — and it has never been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Just the opposite in fact. Pundits claiming the video by Dem lawmakers is protected by the First Amendment are simply making their own judgment — not a legal argument. The Supreme Court may ultimately come to the same conclusion if any conviction under the statute reaches the Court. But it has not so far — it has sustained the statute’s language against First Amendment challenges. Saying the Trump DOJ should not investigate or prosecute the Dem members of Congress under the statute is a argument for the exercise of prosecutorial discretion – it is not an argument based on the status of the law.
@JonathanTurley: Maine’s Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner is the latest on the left to call for mob action and intimidation against political opponents: “Don’t let them have a public dinner without getting yelled at. Because that’s power. That’s real power.” Our politics have descended to little more than organized trolls raving at restaurants…
@LangmanVince: The scariest thing about this terrorist attack in Washington DC yesterday is the fact that I honestly don’t know if this guy was radicalized by Muslim Jihadists in Afghanistan or radical Democratic politicians in America.
@MarkLucasUSA: Ordinary Americans cannot comprehend the evil Afghanistan war veterans experienced.Afghans were untrustworthy allies who sold their children to pedophiles, ritually raped little boys, and beat their women.I deployed to Afghanistan in 2010 as an Infantry Rifle Platoon Leader. It was the deadliest year of Operation Enduring Freedom. I saw radical Islam up close and personal. There were a couple women attached to my unit. They were brave, tough, and blonde-haired. They served as our Female Engagement Team. My soldiers constantly protected them from local Afghans. These sick men would linger around our foot patrols. They had zero respect for these women. They would have beaten and raped them if given the chance. As a Platoon Leader, one of my main duties was to conduct Key Leader Engagements with local Afghan leaders. During these meetings, cute little boys would serve us tea. These boys were sold into slavery and sexually abused by these sick older men. My local, Afghan interpreter sympathized with these children. He told me their parents would sell them into slavery in exchange for educational opportunities. He proudly said some of these boys would return to murder their parents. My combat experience opened my eyes to how incompatible Islam is with American values…
@megbasham: It’s fascinating that the Washington Post has gone from arguing in June that illegal immigrants don’t get much in federal benefits to now saying Trump doesn’t have the power to stop all the federal benefits they get.https://t.co/PeizfAtnaV
@joeroganhq: Elon Musk to Joe Rogan: “Sen. Susan Collins was telling me she gave the Navy $12 billion for more submarines, got no extra submarines, held a hearing to say, ‘where’d the $12 billion go?’ And they were like, ‘we don’t know.’ That was it.” https://t.co/UPdej7t2E2
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Deng Xiaoping, China;s great revolutionary leader remarked on several occasions that the pen is mightier than the sword. Biden’s minions took it literally. Trump moves to terminate all of Bidens’ autopen orders!!
Trump Moves To “Terminate” All Of Biden’s Autopen’d Orders
Friday, Nov 28, 2025 – 03:30 PM
Discussions about the topic of former President Biden’s increasing use of autopen during his demantia-ridden term have grown louder in recent months amid whistleblowers, reports, and legal challenges.
And it appears that all of this has finally triggered President Trump into action, writing on TruthSocial that:
“Any document signed by Sleepy Joe Biden with the Autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated, and of no further force or effect.”
Trump went on to explain his reasoning:
“The Autopen is not allowed to be used if approval is not specifically given by the President of the United States.
The Radical Left Lunatics circling Biden around the beautiful Resolute Desk in the Oval Office took the Presidency away from him.
I am hereby cancelling all Executive Orders, and anything else that was not directly signed by Crooked Joe Biden, because the people who operated the Autopen did so illegally.
Trump had one more threat:
“Joe Biden was not involved in the Autopen process and, if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Finally, of course, we have absolutely no idea how any of what President Trump just wrote is legal (or constitutional), or will we just be stuck circling seven levels of appeal court hell in the American ‘so-called’ justice system? …until it’s all moot anyway (and Fauci is long gone).
END
NEW YORK TIMES/MINNESOTA
NYT Torches Tim Walz After Somalians Scam Woke Minnesota For $1 Billion ‘On His Watch’
by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 – 01:25 PM
The NY Times has thrown Minnesota governor Tim Walz under the bus over a massive and sprawling fraud scandal that federal prosecutors say siphoned over $1 billion from the state’s social safety net programs – more than the entire state spends annually to run its Department of Corrections.
The fraud involved a series of schemes that federal authorities say took root over the past five years, many centered within Minnesota’s Somali diaspora, where individuals established companies that billed state agencies for services that were never performed. Prosecutors say 59 people have been convicted across various cases so far, in three separate plots.
Minnesota’s fraud scandal stood out even in the context of rampant theft during the pandemic, when Americans stole tens of billions through unemployment benefits, business loans and other forms of aid, according to federal auditors. – NYT
Federal prosecutors have emphasized the seriousness of the cases being prosecuted by career federal attorney Joseph H. Thompson – who warned that the scale of fraud threatens public confidence. “No one will support these programs if they continue to be riddled with fraud,” Mr. Thompson said. “We’re losing our way of life in Minnesota in a very real way.”
Feeding Programs and Expanding Fraud
The first public indication of a systemic problem emerged in 2022, when attorneys began prosecuting fraud related to pandemic-era child nutrition programs.
Prosecutors charged that Feeding Our Future, a Minneapolis nonprofit, partnered with dozens of local businesses to claim reimbursements for tens of thousands of nonexistent meals. The funds were allegedly used for luxury spending, including homes, vehicles, and international real-estate investments.
Investigators later determined that the problem extended beyond the food-assistance program. Two additional fraud schemes came to light last year, including inflated reimbursement claims for services to people at risk of homelessness and fraudulent autism-therapy certifications involving children recruited from Somali communities in Minneapolis.
One provider in the autism program, Asha Farhan Hassan, is accused of facilitating $14 million in fraud. Her attorney, Ryan Pacyga, said she entered the field with good intentions but eventually engaged in falsifying invoices and intends to plead guilty. Pacyga added that some defendants believed state agencies were enabling the fraud. “No one was doing anything about the red flags,” he said. “It was like someone was stealing money from the cookie jar and they kept refilling it.”
Political and Cultural Fault Lines
The cases have fueled debate about whether state officials hesitated to intervene due to concerns over accusations of racism or political backlash. A report by Minnesota’s Office of the Legislative Auditor found that threats of discrimination lawsuits influenced regulatory decisions, including early warnings issued by Feeding Our Future that challenging claims from minority-owned businesses would trigger litigation and public accusations.
Kayseh Magan, a former fraud investigator at the Minnesota attorney general’s office, said that pushback contributed to reluctance among Democratic officials. “There is a perception that forcefully tackling this issue might cause political backlash among the Somali community, which is a core voting bloc,” Mr. Magan said.
Amid the prosecutions, allegations even spilled into courtroom misconduct: defendants attempted to bribe a juror with $120,000 and a note asking, “Why, why, why is it always people of color and immigrants prosecuted for the fault of other people?”
Mr. Thompson argued that heightened racial sensitivities following the death of George Floyd in 2020 affected oversight and enforcement. “This was a huge part of the problem,” he said. “Allegations of racism can be a reputation or career killer.”
Walz’s Response
Walz (D), now in his second term and seeking a third, acknowledged that pandemic policies prioritized speed and accessibility of assistance. “The programs are set up to move the money to people,” Mr. Walz said. “The programs are set up to improve people’s lives, and in many cases, the criminals find the loopholes.”
And of course since Walz is seeking a third term next year and fraud has become a central theme in the upcoming governor’s race, he’s introduced stricter measures, including:
a task force to pursue fraud cases
enhanced inter-agency data-sharing
new technology — including AI — to detect suspicious billing
Community Impact and Racial Tensions
The fallout has reverberated sharply within Minnesota’s Somali community of roughly 80,000 residents. Many say the scandals have cast suspicion on innocent families and entrepreneurs. Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district includes Minneapolis, urged Minnesotans not to generalize wrongdoing. “We do not blame the lawlessness of an individual on a whole community,” she said.
Except – as Somali-American professor Ahmed Samatar of Macalester College argues, the scandal demands honest reflection.
Dr. Samatar said that Somali refugees who came to the United States after their country’s civil war were raised in a culture in which stealing from the country’s dysfunctional and corrupt government was widespread.
Minnesota, he said, proved susceptible to rampant fraud because it is “so tolerant, so open and so geared toward keeping an eye on the weak.” -NYT
Some Somali social-service providers have criticized the increased scrutiny, with the Minnesota Somali Community Center asserting that heightened enforcement has left legitimate organizations feeling “criminalized and intentionally targeted.”
END
MINNESOTA
Watch: Somali Enclave Standoff; ‘No English, No Women On Camera’
In a tense street encounter captured in Minneapolis’s Somali-dominated Cedar-Riverside neighborhood, filmmaker Nick Shirley attempted to interview residents about life as Muslims in America—only to face demands to delete footage, refusals to speak English, and claims that women can’t appear on camera, highlighting the cultural chasm.
Shirley’s video, part of his documentary series probing U.S. migration impacts, shows him approaching locals in the area dubbed “Little Mogadishu,” asking “What’s it like being a Muslim here in the United States?”
The responses quickly escalate to hostility, with demands to “delete the footage.”
The clip, shows a man insisting “I’m not speaking English, only ONE Somali language.” Another echoes, “I’m not speaking English.”
When Shirley asks, “Can women speak on camera?” the response is blunt, “No.”
🚨 HOLY CRAP! Nick Shirley tried talking to Somalians in Minnesota — and it proved exactly why none of them should be here
The footage, filmed amid empty storefronts, captures the enclave’s insularity, raising assimilation alarms in a diaspora resettled since the 1990s under refugee programs.
Minnesota’s 100K+ Somali population surged under Obama-Biden, fueling Dem dominance and electing Ilhan Omar amid feuds.
But as we’ve also detailed, it’s bred fraud. Feeding Our Future’s $250M COVID heist saw Somali-led nonprofits indicted, while child care and autism scams bilked millions—Rep. Kristin Robbins fuming: “We’re at the tip of the iceberg.”
In a recent Newsmax segment, ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons discussed President Trump’s push to revoke TPS for Somalis in Minnesota amid the allegations of widespread immigration fraud, including marriage scams, visa overstays, and forged documents uncovered in DHS’s “Operation Twin Shield.”
🚨 BREAKING: Somalians and other Muslim migrants are in mass PANIC, fearing imminent immigration raids and deportations now that President Trump is DONE with their BS.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING ALEX NEWMA
Leftist Marxists Preparing Now to Take Over America – Alex Newman
Journalist Alex Newman, author of the upcoming book “Woke and Weaponized, How Karl Marx Won the Battle for American Education and How We Can Win it Back,” has a dire warning for America. Newman is back from the recent UN climate conference in Brazil called COP30 (Conference of the Parties). Newman saw firsthand that just about every country there hates America and wants to overthrow the government and replace it with a communist dystopia. Newman warned last time he was on USAW that “Venezuela Is a Very Dangerous Enemy.” Newman explains the latest danger, and says, “The Marxist President of Columbia Gustavo Petro, who was put in place with help of George Soros, Joe Biden and Barak Obama. He went to New York in September for the UN General Assembly, went out in the street with a bullhorn and told American soldiers that they must disobey Donald Trump, and ‘stand with humanity.’ Whatever is that supposed to mean? Why would a president of a foreign country come and tell our soldiers to disobey our Commander in Chief? It’s because they are preparing for something. Why would these six members of Congress, some with deep ties to the CIA and other subversive forces on our country, why would they be putting out this idea that they should disobey the Commander in Chief? It’s because we are watching a replica of the color revolutions we have seen in North Africa and Eastern Europe. In many cases, the same people who wrote the script for those cases are writing the script here. This will involve the people that came across the border in the last few years, many from Venezuela . . . and many from China. It will involve using the domestic radical left. . .. They are all being used to collapse the United States into a civil war.”
Rich Higgins, who died in 2022, was Director for Strategic Planning of the National Security Council in the Trump Administration in 2017. Higgins tried to warn President Trump in his first term what was coming in a now famous memo. Newman says, “Higgins said you cannot think of this as regular politics. This is not regular politics. They are trying to delegitimize you so we can have an overthrow of not just your presidency but our system. He talked about how socialists, Islamists, communists and the LGBT crowd have joined in an international alliance to destroy the United States of America and not just as a nation but as an ideal. This is one of the final steps necessary to usher in this new world order that they have been talking about for generations.”
Newman contends that the “climate hysteria hoax” is the basis for total tyrannical control, and you could see this in full detail at the recent UN COP30 meeting in Brazil. Newman says, “One of the top priorities is to completely destroy the climate hysteria hoax. Donald Trump actually stood up in front of the UN General Assembly and said this was the biggest con job in the history of humanity. Why is the President of the United States making this such a big deal? Because he understands this is the fraud that underpins the entire agenda. The whole effort to smash national sovereignty revolves around the climate hoax. The whole effort to indoctrinate your children into pagan earth worship all revolves around the climate hoax. The effort to expand government to micromanage every area of your life all revolves around the climate hoax. It all revolves around the lie the gas we exhale, carbon dioxide, is pollution that needs to be regulated and controlled by the UN. Even the effort to bring all the religions together all revolves around the climate hoax. They say Mother Earth is in trouble, and Christianity of the Bible is the cause of this.”
In closing, Newman says, “This is not just politics. It is aimed to overthrow our system of government. I think we are getting closer to this really turning into a hot mess.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the upcoming book “Woke and Weaponized.”This is a stark warning for all parents about the communist, thought shaping agenda, in our public schools for 11.29.25.
harveyorganblog.com 
