access market
GOLD $4211.55 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 58.53 3;30 PM)
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XGE: COMEX
072 C GOLDMAN 1
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 30
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 27
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 8
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 9
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 2
167 C MAREX 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 13
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 30
363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 14
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 75
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 329
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 27 179
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 8
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 9
709 C BARCLAYS 3
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 5
880 H CITIGROUP 10
905 C ADM 11
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 179/398
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 398 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 39,800 OZ or 1.2379 TONNES
total notices so far: 24,368 contracts for 2,436,800 OR 75.794 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 550 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2.750 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8855 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 44.275 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 2.145 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.480 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 7.275 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 2.145 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP // STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.480 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 197 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.612 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 83.378 TONNES/
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 83.378 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 14.348 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 787 CONTRACTS OI TO 150,924 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 635 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 635 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 6116 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 635 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 133 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR MAMMOTH GAIN OF $2.21 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.665 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.21
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.29 POINTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 42.97 PTS OR 0.17%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 0.17 PTS OR 0.00% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.13%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0663
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0688/ Oil UP TO 59.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.19 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0688 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.87 POINTS OR 0.05%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 496.48 PTS OR 1.97%
// Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.34%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1071/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1079/ Oil UP TO 57.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.21 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1071 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.1079:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 768 CONTRACTS TO 418,697 OI DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1373). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED. .. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED MONDAY NIGHT AT 398 NOTICES FOR 39,800 OZ (1.2379 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ARE STANDING FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GOLD FOR DECEMBER DELIVERIES.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 586 CONTRACTS (OR 23.30 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 4 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 8 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 586 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1112 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES IN NOVEMBER WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON MONDAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY A 1.066 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//DEC 2 WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.612 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 83.372 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS, MAYBE I AM WRONG. WE MUST WAIT TO SEE THE DATA FROM BIS SWAPS FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO SEE IF THEY WILL BEGIN TO COVER!!
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 1112 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1112 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 1112 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1112 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1312 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP MONDAY’S STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 1.066 TONNES DEC 2 WHICH FOLLOWS DEC 3’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.612 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 83.378 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $22.75/ /)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY WITH THE PRICE RISE// COMEX TRADING//.. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A SMALL 343 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON ON DAY 2 AND THEN WE HAD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 3 FOR .612 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 83.378 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22.35
WE HAD A FAIR 6906 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
DEC 2
DEC CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 entries |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 398 notice(s) 39800 OZ 1.2379 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2437 contracts 243,700 OZ 7.5800 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 24,368 notices 2,436,800 0z 75.794 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
0 entries
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 5 all dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 31,626.891 oz
b) Brinks 69,060.348 oz oz
c) Looomis 596.503 oz
d) Malca: 56,474.478 oz
e) Manfra 1,950,774 oz
ttotal adjustments out of dealer: 159,708.984 oz 4.96 tonnes
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 2835 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 4877 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 5074 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 197 CONTRACTS FOR 19,700 OZ OR 0.612 TONNES.THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES TO 83.378 TONNES
JANUARY LOST 150 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2862
FEB GAINED 3217 CONTRACTS UP TO 317,826 CONTRACTS
We had 398 contracts filed for today representing 39,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 27 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 398 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 179 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,368 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 2835 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (398 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,660,800 OZ OR 82.762 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (24,368 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (2835 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (398)x 100 oz) which equals 2,680,500 OR 83.378 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 83.378 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 83.813 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume MONDAY confirmed 249,871 contracts fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,952,019.703 oz 60.72 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,281.914.664 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 17,942,,275.841 or 558.08 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,339,638.823 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 15990,256 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
497/361 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
DEC 2 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Out of Loomis 60,791.140 oz total withdrawal: 60,791.140 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 550 CONTRACT(S) ( 2.795 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1841 contracts (9.205 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 8855 Contracts (44.275 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
please note: lack of any silver coming in or leaving the comex
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 entries
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
i) Out of Loomis 60,791.140 oz
total withdrawal 60,791.140 oz
summary: complete lack of silver coming into or leaving the comex
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 137.960 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 455.938 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 2361 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 546 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 975 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 3 OF 429 CONTRACTS OR 2.145 MILLION OZ
JANUARY LOST 5 CONTRACTS UP TO 4062 CONTRACTS
FEB LOST 184 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 982 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 550 or 2.750 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 157,069 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8855 X5,000 oz = 44.275 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (2361) AND the number of notices served upon today (550 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (8855) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(2361) minus number of notices served upon today (550)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 53.480 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 53.480million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 137.96. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 198.596/455.933 million. 43.54%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD UP $78.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37 TONNES
OCT 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $78.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $240.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.45TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1058.66 TONNES
OCT 20 WITH GOLD UP $137.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.59TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $90.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.04TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.62 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $104,45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022,60 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $41.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.45 TONNES
OCT 14 WITH GOLD UP $33.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNEES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.88 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $!29.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.72 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.16 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNEES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.44 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.58 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD UP $68.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD UP $29.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.17 TONNES
OCT 6 WITH GOLD UP $68.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.88 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD UP $38.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.74 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $25.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR ENTERED INTO THE GLD. . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.88TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1050.01 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.474 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.015 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.73 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.757 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.010 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.94 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.405 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.253 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.63 TODAY/HUMONGOUS CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.982MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.848 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.681 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.830 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/MAMMOTH CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 9.983 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.511 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP $1.78 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.272 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.528 MILLION OZ
OCT 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.180 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.800 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.54 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.635 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.620 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.723 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.985 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.538 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.262 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.67 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.724 MILLION OZ
OCT 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.43//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.893 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.394 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 508.057 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
Alasdair Macleod….
3.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer//GATA DISPATCHES
Silver Erupts To Record High As Shanghai Inventories Crater To Critical Levels
Silver Erupts To Record High As Shanghai Inventories Crater To Critical Levels
“With gold taking a breather, it appears investors have turned their attention to silver.”
end
Silver Soars 90%, $100 in Play Amid CME Outage, JP Morgan Mystery
by ITM Trading
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 17:44
Silver didn’t just pop—it detonated. Todd “Bubba” Horwitz says this wasn’t a short squeeze but fresh capital flooding in, pushing silver past $58 in its strongest surge since 1980. Then came the weekend shock: whispers that JP Morgan quietly moved its entire metals desk from New York to Singapore.
Horwitz connects the dots—evaporating physical supply, odd “glitches,” and an economy creaking under its own weight. His message is blunt: this is the inflation trade in its purest form, a flight toward the only asset you can hold in your hand as the paper system shows its first real fractures.
Follow Daniela on X: Daniela Cambone
About ITM Trading: ITM Trading has been a trusted leader in precious metals for over 28 years, helping clients protect and grow their wealth with custom gold and silver strategies designed for economic downturns and currency resets.
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.3,36815
END
COPPER:
Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A “Circular Melt-Up” Is Now Driving Global Market
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 08:20 AM
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange broke out of the post-Thanksgiving trading range and into record-high territory on a massive tariff-driven scramble for supply.
Copper jumped nearly 1% on the LME to $11,294.50/ton, while Comex futures surged 1.6%, blowing out the US-London spread as traders scramble to rush metal into the U.S. ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs.
The arbitrage continues to pull supply from the rest of the world into the U.S., compounding a year already plagued with unexpected mine outages and tightening fears.
Goldman’s commodity specialist, James McGeoch, commented on this dynamic, calling it a “circular melt-up”:
Post Thanksgiving – breakout in Copper: Have been watching LME, that $11,100 level, now 3 times, it’s felt like a coiled spring, we have seen it in precious this year (Gold, Silver, PGM’s), so why not pivot to the Doctor. As we do just remember commodities are highly emotive, basis the touch point at all levels of life, they rarely move in linear fashion, overreact up and overreact down, look at the awakening in Rare Earths in 2025. Whilst the CESCO feedback from a bottom-up perspective was kinda meh (China -8% QTD, y/y, worth noting YTD +7% y/y to end Oct), it’s the balances that matter. This wasn’t a conference about mine supply, or Chinese Q4 demand, this was dominated by the traders and the desire to purchase and ship into the Comex (U.S.) arb. GS commods sales were on the ground (feedback link), outside China they note EUR demand <2019 and they suggest positioning is 5/10….
I liken this to a “circular melt-up.” The tighter LME gets tighter basis US (CMX arb) pull, the stronger the LME backwardation, which in turn tightens the CMX arb as the forward curve is underpinned by stock builds….. Circular motion – LME stock contraction, CMX arb strengthens…. Those watching supply have for some time been looking at 1H26: Grasberg tightness, Kakalua stockpiles rundown, Codelco friction, Collahuasi weakness, QB sustains lower rates. China smelter utilisation rates at record lows, copper premiums at record highs, TC settlement structures are breaking… there is nothing the Chinese can do about it, and in the meantime the U.S. is sitting whistling Dixie as stocks get onshored, it’s a strategic stockpile, basis the “threat” of tariffs, that they so desperately need and the traders are providing the balance sheet. Who would have thought 12 months ago that the U.S. would be the only game in town when it comes to copper. By luck or by design, Uncle Sam holds all the aces…. I think last week’s move was the hangover of CESCO washing off and traders realising that near term the asymmetry is higher. … Colleagues gone reminded us daily, commodities are spot assets, they are not traded in Excel models, they are art as much as science. Go back to summer, the same traders that owned CMX at 500, sold it at 550/575, the guys that got slammed as the unwind happened were machines. It’s these same buyers today stepping in.
Year-to-date, copper is up 30% on the LME as investors pile in – both on the lucrative U.S. arbitrage trade that is fueling shortages elsewhere, and on long-term structural demand from the “Next AI Trade” and major power-grid buildouts.
Commenting on copper markets, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that the U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and is about to ignite another leg higher in prices.
“This is the big one,” Bintas told the media outlet in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”
Bintas continued, “Just looking at the facts, mathematically… What is going to happen if all of this continues? There’s only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price.”
Last March, Bintas forecasted that copper prices could reach $12,000 or $13,000 a ton, driven by U.S. import drawdowns.
“China is, for now at least, not the marginal buyer,” said Nick Snowdon, Mercuria’s head of metals and mining research. “That role has now shifted to the US.”
Bintas noted, “If we run to $12,000 or $15,000 or whatever it is, the SHFE will take time to catch up. You’re going to see a lot of Chinese copper cathodes coming out. And then when the Chinese will come back from Chinese New Year, there will not be enough copper cathodes.” He said more than half a million tons could arrive in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026.
Related:
Earlier this year, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg’s Odd Lots that copper is the “most compelling trade I’ve seen in my 30-year trading career.”
end
NATURAL GAS
US NatGas Hits Three-Year High As Forecasts Point To “Long, Cold Winter”
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 09:45 AM
U.S. natural gas futures spiked to their highest levels in nearly three years as models now show a frigid first half of December across the Lower 48. Several forecasters are also warning of a potential polar-vortex-driven Arctic blast event later this month, which could drive temperatures even lower.
Let’s begin with an unusual sight (for this time of year) of winter storm alerts across the Northeast on Tuesday morning.
🚨 WINTER STORM TODAY 🚨
Heavy snow (5-10″ expected) in the Interior Northeast & disruptive ice (up to 0.2″ accretion) in the Central Appalachians will make today’s commutes HAZARDOUS. The storm exits by Wednesday morning. pic.twitter.com/kkcnacF82O— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) December 2, 2025
NatGas futures are on track for their largest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2022. Prices on Tuesday morning were trading near $5 per mmbtu, the highest level since December 2022. The rally is being fueled by a rapid shift toward colder early-December temperatures across the Midwest and East, which has boosted heating demand expectations.
Weather models turned colder across the eastern two-thirds of the country for Dec. 6 to 10, with additional cooling expected for Dec. 11 to 15. These forecasts merely reinforce expectations for a near-term spike in residential and commercial heating loads.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue warned on X that the stratospheric polar vortex over the North Pole is set for another warming event in about two weeks.
The stratospheric “polar vortex” above the North Pole is loading up yet another “sudden warming” event in 2-weeks.
After most extreme observed November SSW event, we’re hitting multiplier x2 — re-spinning the whole thing.
Told you already we’re going to see the “full load” pic.twitter.com/tgcBsmHsyA— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 1, 2025
“It’s going to be a long, cold winter,” Maue noted in another post.
Monday Winter Weather December 1, 2025
Negative Arctic Oscillation (-AO) is a bad omen with yet another stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event –> it’s going to be a long, cold winter
Free to read (sign up / email) @weathertrader https://t.co/MaNEqL87GM pic.twitter.com/OpAT7uKunV— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 1, 2025
Meteorologist Judah Cohen stated, “IMO next PV stretch keeps cold train coming in Eastern US up to the holidays.”
The weather pattern is in “rinse, lather, repeat” mode or in #PolarVortex (PV) parlance, one good stretch deserves another. IMO next PV stretch keeps cold train coming in Eastern US up to the holidays. Also first ever N Hemisphere snowfall forecast in blog https://t.co/CGUOIWUvOO pic.twitter.com/v2rQz182wb— Judah Cohen (@judah47) December 2, 2025
Greta Thunberg’s sudden pivot to all things Palestine and Bill Gates’ open acknowledgment that much of the climate-crisis narrative was overblown only reinforce what’s becoming obvious: the climate-crisis narrative has collapsed like a house of cards. And with the Northeast already plunged into an early-season chill, spare us … we could certaintly use a little “global warming” right about now.
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.29 POINTS OR 0.42%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 42.97 PTS OR 0.17%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 0.17 PTS OR 0.00% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.13%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0663
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0688/ Oil UP TO 59.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 63.19 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0688 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0688
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0663
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 42.97 PTS OR 0.17%
2. Nikkei closed UP 0.17 PTS OR 0.000%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.36 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1614 UP 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.863 // UP 8 FULL BASIS PTS//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.61…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.391 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7540/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.471 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.228
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.391
3j Gold at $4212.50 Silver at: 57.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 1/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.73
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.812 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.863% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.3931 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8043 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9331 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.091 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.734 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.533 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.45 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4860 UP 0 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2490 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.254 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.819 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
Futures Rebound As Bitcoin Halts Plunge
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 08:43 AM
After Monday’s dismal start to December, US equity futures are higher (if only for the time being), although lacking conviction with few major catalysts on deck today. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by META (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.4%). Bond yields are unchanged and the USD is flat. Commodities are mostly mixed: Oil is flat; base metals are all higher (aluminum +0.9%), while precious metals are lower. After the latest post-BOJ bloodbath, bitcoin has managed to hold a modest bid and was trading above $87,000. The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.8%, Amazon +0.7%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.05%, Apple -0.1%).
- Cloudflare Inc. (NET) gains 2% after Barclays launched coverage on the infrastructure software company with an overweight rating and a $235 price target.
- Credo Technology (CRDO) rises 18% after the communications equipment company’s second-quarter results came in much stronger than expected. It also gave a strong forecast. Shares of competitor Astera Labs (ALAB) gain 5%.
- MongoDB (MDB) rallies 23% after the database software company reported stronger-than-expected results. It also raised its full-year forecast.
- Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) gains 3% after Truist Securities upgraded the theme park operator’s stock to buy from hold.
- Solaris Energy Infrastructure Inc. (SEI) rises 4% after the data center power generator was initiated at Morgan Stanley with a recommendation of overweight on power supply demand.
- Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) inches 1.1% higher. The company was fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix Inc., in an auction that could wrap up in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.
In corporate news, The Information reported that Amazon is planning a new ultrafast grocery delivery offering in major US urban areas, sending shares of Instacart lower. Warner Bros. Discovery was said to be fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix. The Commerce Department agreed to invest as much as $150 million in xLight, a chip technology startup tied to former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.
With the market stuck in a holding pattern until the next leg higher or lower, investors are awaiting eco data later this week, and the Fed is now in a blackout period. Black Friday and Cyber Monday offered some clues on the economy, with Bloomberg describing “anxious but still active” consumers, and Salesforce data showing Cyber Monday spending grew more slowly in the US than Europe for the first time as tariffs stung American shoppers.
“For long-only investors like we are, I’d say in the absence of any major catalyst, it’s very much wait-and-see until the Fed meeting, while keeping an eye on US jobs and inflation data,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris.
Much now depends on the Fed’s decision at next week’s meeting. Disappointment would pose a risk for equities, though confidence in a cut is virtually certain, with market odds of a cut at 100% following softer labor and inflation data and a run of dovish comments from officials.
“Dips continue to present attractive buying opportunities,” wrote Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “The narrative behind that bull case remains an attractive one, with earnings growth solid, the underlying economy resilient, a calmer tone on trade continuing to prevail, and the monetary backdrop growing looser.”
Bitcoin is steady today after a more than 5% plunge on Monday which saw almost $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions liquidated. Crypto retail investors who piled into exchange-traded funds tracking Strategy’s volatile stock have paid a heavy price. Both MSTX and MSTU – which offer double the daily return – have dropped more than 80% this year, among the 10 worst-performing funds in the entire US ETF market.
While bitcoin longs were hammered again, so were stock short sellers: they were down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses in the final week of November, wiping out the bulk of what had been nearly $95 billion in month-to-date profits prior to last week, per data compiled by S3 Partners. “Being short here requires high confidence in a much weaker economic backdrop or a significant change in the outlook for AI capex,” said Dennis Debusschere, co-founder and chief market strategist at 22V Research.
Ahead of next week’s Fed decision, Barclays strategists noted that S&P 500 implied moves ahead of FOMC meetings have declined since early 2023, with realized moves hovering near zero recently. It’s a trend that underscores the fading influence of monetary policy, they wrote.
After hitting a record high just shy of $60, silver pulled back modestly with a technical gauge showing that a six-day rally had pushed the metal into overbought territory. Copper also retreated amid signs that softer Chinese demand heading into winter might help to ease a looming global supply crunch.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg found that among the 14 largest markets, the US currently ranks 5th from last in local-currency terms and 4th from last in dollar terms this year. That raises questions about whether the AI theme will lead it to victory or whether volatility tied to nascent tech exposure is doing more harm than good.
European stocks and US equity futures hold modest gains; the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in banks, utilities and construction. Bayer soars after the Trump administration urged the Supreme Court to take up the company’s appeal of the Roundup case. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Bayer shares surge as much as 15% after the US solicitor general urged the high court to consider the German company’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer.
- Bilfinger shares rise as much as 6% after the German company said it aims to achieve an advanced average revenue growth of 8% to 10% annually, elevate its Ebita margin to 8% to 9%, and ensure a cash conversion rate of at least 90% until 2030.
- Victrex shares jump as much as 11% after JPMorgan said the thermoplastic maker cleared a low bar by beating expectations in the second half. Jefferies noted that a feared dividend cut hasn’t materialized.
- Biotalys shares rise as much as 8.8% after the Belgian agricultural technology company received regulatory approval from the US Environmental Protection Agency for its first biofungicide, called Evoca.
- Compagnie des Alpes rises as much as 6.9% following 2025 results from the French ski resort and theme park operator, which CIC Market Solutions describes as “excellent.”
- Swissquote shares tumble as much as 8.6% after one of its investors offered shares at a discount to the last closing price. Shares fell below the offer price before paring losses.
- Scandic Hotels drops as much as 8.8% as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, saying the country’s acquisition of Dalata’s hotel operation may not be as profitable as previously expected.
- Foresight Group shares decline as much as 8.2% after the UK infrastructure and private equity investment management services company’s interim results, with Peel Hunt noting impact from margin compression.
- Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 28% after the company’s update on work at the Dubhe-1 well. Canaccord Genuity said markets are still waiting for representative flow rates and that the cost of the work has come in higher than previously forecast.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, snapping a two-day decline, helped by a rally in tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, before paring gains. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts to the gauge’s climb. Shares eked out small gains in Japan as banks extended advances on speculation of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike this month. Growing expectations of an interest rate cut in the US is aiding risk-on in the region. A stabilization in bitcoin also helped sentiment after a selloff in cryptocurrencies led declines in global risk assets on Monday. Shares drop in India, as the rupee hit a record low. Concerns over the lack of a trade deal with the US is weighing on the currency. Benchmarks in China also traded lower.
In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY above 156. The euro loses a few pips with little reaction to a surprise uptick in euro-area CPI. The pound is down 0.2%.
In rates, treasury yields are higher, within two basis points of Monday’s close with 10-year trading around 4.11%. Bund and gilts are little changed. In Asia, JGBs were supported after Tuesday’s 10-year auction drew solid demand. The corporate issuance slate is expected to grow following a heavy day on Monday. The IG dollar bond issuance slate is empty so far. Tuesday is expected to bring more US investment-grade bond issuance after around $16 billion of new deals on Monday, led by Merck’s acquisition-related $8 billion eight-part offering.
In commodities, spot gold falls $45 and back below $4,200/oz. US crude futures are treading water at $59.30 a abrrel.
The US economic calendar is blank for scheduled data releases. Fed members are in external communications blackout ahead of the Dec. 10 policy announcement
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.5%
- CAC 40 +0.2%
- 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.09%
- VIX -0.4 points at 16.85
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.09
- euro little changed at $1.1604
- WTI crude little changed at $59.34/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump’s schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30am and will make an announcement at 2:00pm. Some expect he could announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair (Hassett’s odds are up to 79% on Polymarket).
- Senators have about a week before they’re set to vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Most of them already believe the chances for a bipartisan breakthrough by then are roughly zero. Politico
- US envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a Ukraine peace plan as Russia claimed its forces seized Pokrovsk on the Donetsk frontline. A fourth Russia-connected tanker in less than a week was attacked today. BBG
- Officially, the search for a new Federal Reserve chair is still under way. A handful of finalists are scheduled to sit down for interviews beginning this week with Vice President JD Vance and senior White House staff. Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favor longtime adviser Kevin Hassett. If Hassett does end up the nominee, it will be because he met Trump’s two key criteria: loyalty, and credibility with the markets. WSJ
- OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman told employees Monday that the company was declaring a “code red” effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result. OpenAI plans to launch a new reasoning model next week that the company claims outperforms Gemini 3. WSJ
- The world economy is weathering Trump’s trade tariffs better than expected, the OECD said. It raised its US and euro-area growth forecasts. Still, it continues to predict global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026, from 3.2% in 2025. BBG
- China is expected to ramp up US soybean purchases this month to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by year-end, led by state firms like Cofco, traders said. So far, only about 3 million have been booked. BBG
- Strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped to steady Asian markets on Tuesday, a day after hawkish comments from the central bank governor sparked a global selloff. FT
- Europe’s headline CPI for Nov ran a bit warmer than anticipated at +2.2% (vs. the Street +2.1% and up from +2.1% in Oct) while the core number was inline at +2.4% (and steady vs. Oct). BBG
- Members of the House of Representatives are quitting Congress at a record rate, with Republican retirements and resignations outpacing Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in the first 11 months of the year. In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority. Axios
- Apple plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order
Trade/Tariffs
- Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
- China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
- Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil’s stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
- Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqsuawk
APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data. ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals. Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day’s losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.
Top Asian News
- RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.
Top European News
- Confederation of British Industry said Britain’s private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
- BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. “The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)”.
- OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
- UK OBR’s Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging.
- BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes.
FX
- DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week – “we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting”. As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
- EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
- USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair’s volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday’s 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday’s 156.58 high.
- GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
- AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an “extended pause” through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.
Fixed Income
- A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ’s Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, “Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.”.
- Bund Dec’25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB’s easing cycle has likely concluded.
- Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar’26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday’s base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning’s FSR/FPC briefings.
- Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
- JGB’s led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
- Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)
Commodities
- WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday’s post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
- XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz – a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
- 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday’s selloff.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
- Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.
Geopolitics: Other
- Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump’s comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
- China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
- “Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”, according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, “Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”.
- Japan’s Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.
US Event Calendar
- Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.4m, prior 15.32m
- 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Committee
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets got December off to a rocky start yesterday, with bonds and equities losing ground, alongside a sharp slump in Bitcoin (-5.19%). The moves gathered pace right from the open, as hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda had already pushed 10yr JGB yields up to a post-GFC high. But that then cascaded across global markets, with bond yields moving sharply higher in the US and Europe too. In the meantime, matters weren’t helped by the latest data, as the ISM manufacturing print leant in a stagflationary direction, whilst higher oil prices only exacerbated those fears. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 (-0.53%) slipped back, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+7.2bps) saw their biggest daily jump in nearly four weeks.
Those developments in Japan were critical for yesterday’s moves, because Ueda’s comments had led investors to price in a December rate hike from the BoJ as a near-certainty. So that meant bond yields hit a whole bunch of new records, and by the close in Japan yesterday, the 10yr yield (+5.8bps) was at a post-2008 high of 1.86%, whilst the 30yr yield (+4.1bps) was at 3.37%, and the highest since that maturity was first issued in the late-1990s. Similarly at the front end, the 2yr yield closed above 1% for the first time since the GFC. This morning yields on 2yr and 10yr JGBs are both down a basis point after a decent 10yr auction has provided some respite to the bond sell-off. The bid-to-cover ratio was recorded at 3.59, compared to 2.97 at the previous sale in November, and a 12-month average of 3.20.
US futures are also fairly flat, indicating that the sell-off has paused for now. The KOSPI (+1.81%) is leading the way in Asia after rebounding from yesterday and after the US announced that the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including automobiles, will decrease to 15% retroactively effective from November 1. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.24%) is recovering a little this morning after a near two percent decline yesterday, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.11%) is also experiencing modest gains. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.13%) is maintaining small gains, in contrast to the CSI (-0.61%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.55%), which are lower after a stronger session on Monday.
The moves in Japan echoed around the world yesterday, with a sharp bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.0bps) up to 3.53%, the 10yr yield (+7.2bps) rose to 4.09%, and 30yrs (+7.4bps) to 4.74%. Moreover, those moves got further support from several inflationary indicators, including the ISM manufacturing survey. Admittedly, the headline index unexpectedly fell back to 48.2 (vs. 49.0 expected), but the prices paid component ticked up to 58.5 (vs. 57.5 expected) after a run of 4 consecutive monthly declines. So that exacerbated concerns about tariff-driven inflation persisting. And with oil prices rising (+1.27% for Brent) after Ukraine’s weekend attack against an oil terminal in the Black Sea, the 1yr inflation swap (+1.7bps) also posted a 4th consecutive increase to 2.64%.
That downbeat tone was seen for equities too, where the S&P 500 (-0.53%) fell back after a run of 5 consecutive gains, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.25%) saw an even bigger slump. Nearly three quarters of the S&P constituents were lower on the day, though the index did recover some ground after futures in Asia had suggested an even larger fall. The Mag-7 (-0.10%) outperformed as Nvidia (+1.65%) rebounded from Friday’s -1.81% decline. By contrast, crypto assets suffered, with Bitcoin (-5.19%) falling to $86,446 by the close, and trading below $84k intra-day. Unsurprisingly, that meant there were sizeable losses for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (-4.76%). Overnight Bitcoin has bounced a little.
Earlier in Europe, markets had followed a very similar pattern, with bonds and equities selling off together. So the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) also fell back after 5 consecutive gains, and there was a particularly sharp decline for the German DAX (-1.04%). And there wasn’t much data capable of boosting the mood either, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 49.6, so still in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+7.5bps) and BTPs (+6.9bps) all moved higher.
Here in the UK, we also heard yesterday that the head of the OBR budget watchdog had resigned, which comes after their analysis of the budget’s contents went live on its website ahead of the Chancellor’s announcement. However, that wasn’t a market moving story, and the rise in 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) was more muted than in other countries yesterday, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.18%) largely matched the STOXX 600. We did get a bit of UK data too, with October mortgage approvals down to 65.0k (vs. 64.5k expected), but that very much kept them within their 60-70k range that they’ve been in for the last 18 months.
Looking forward to today, we’ll see some focus on geopolitics as Trump’s envoy Witkoff is due to meet Russia’s President Putin in Moscow to discuss US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. The visit comes as US-led peace talks intensified over the past couple of weeks with “productive” meetings between US and Ukrainian officials but Kyiv staying resistant to territorial demands that have been made by Moscow.
In terms of the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for November, with Friday’s country-level releases suggesting that headline and core inflation should be unchanged at 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. We’ll also see the Euro area unemployment rate for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman but with the blackout on it won’t be about monetary policy.
Stateside set to open modestly higher; no reaction to EZ HICP – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 06:16 AM
- European bourses started the morning flat/modestly firmer, but have since sauntered to session highs; US equity futures also modestly firmer.
- OpenAI CEO Altman declares a code red to combat threats to ChatGPT and plans to delay other initiatives such as advertising, according to The Information.
- DXY is modestly firmer, AUD initially outperformed after ANZ scaled back rate cut bets for 2026, but is now flat amidst USD-strength, USD/JPY rises back towards 156.00.
- Bonds are flat/modestly lower, Bunds little moved to EZ HICP whilst Gilts lag.
- Crude essentially flat in rangebound trade, XAU slips below USD 4.2k/oz.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
- China reportedly issues first rare earth magnet general export licence after the Trump-Xi meeting, according to Reuters sources
- Exxon (XOM) is reportedly in talks with Iraq over purchasing Lukoil’s stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, via Reuters citing sources.
- Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says that Russia continues to be an important supplier of energy to India on a competitive basis. Looking at possibilities to increase imports from India. A decrease in oil trade volumes can be decreased for a brief period of time.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) started the session flat/incrementally firmer before then catching a bid as the morning progressed; no clear driver for the upside, but a move which has sustained as indices reside near peaks.
- European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks take the top spot, with gains broad-based across the UK and Europe, but traders may also be digesting the latest update via the BoE, where it lowered capital requirements for UK banks as they pass stress tests. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Travel & Leisure.
- US equity futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.2% RTY +0.5%) initially mildly lower but then moved modestly into the green alongside the strength seen in Europe. The focus this morning has been on OpenAI’s Altman, who declared a “code red“, as he sees a rising threat to ChatGPT from Google.
- BNP Paribas sees end-2026 S&P 500 at 7,500 (vs 6,812.63 Monday close), sees end-2026 Stoxx 600 at 650 (vs current 576.04).
- US FDA is to stop requiring pharmaceutical firms to use primates for some safety studies, via FT.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY and most G10 FX are uneventful in relatively quiet trade, with a similar lack of macro drivers seen during APAC hours. Specifically, DXY resides in a narrow 99.38-99.52 parameter, with ING calling for a lower dollar this week – “we expect that the remainder of the week will validate the market’s dovish pricing for next week’s Fed meeting”. As it stands, the index trades at the upper end of the mentioned ranges, with recent strength thanks to some pressure seen in the GBP.
- EUR traded flat ahead of the EZ HICP metrics, and then was little moved on the release itself. Headline printed a touch above expected at 2.20% (exp. 2.10%) whilst the Services figure also ticked higher from the prior month. Overall, given the figures were near enough in line with expectations, there was little follow-through into the single-currency and held within a 1.1604 to 1.1616 range, before then touching 1.1600 as the USD picked up a touch.
- USD/JPY outperforms amid a pick-up in risk sentiment and after the pair’s volatile Monday session, which saw a slump to 154.66 lows before bouncing back up and clear of 155.50 and then 156.00, with the pair eyeing yesterday’s 156.15 peak as the near-term resistance level, and thereafter Black Friday’s 156.58 high.
- GBP traded flat against the USD, before then moving lower in recent trade. Nothing behind the latest bout of pressure, but it does come after Cable breached 1.3200 to the downside, and then continued to tumble to make a fresh trough at 1.3180 (though it is a moving target).
- AUD outperforms after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1-2026, now sees the RBA on an “extended pause” through 2026. As a reminder, CBA and NAB also expect the RBA to be on hold for an extended period of time/foreseeable future. Westpac continues to expect two 2026 cuts, touting May and August for those. AUD/NZD marginally eclipsed 1.1450, from a 1.1418 trough.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0794 vs exp. 7.0746 (Prev. 7.0759)
FIXED INCOME
- A lack of fresh drivers for USTs. The March contract is near-enough flat in a narrow 112-25 to 112-29 band. Overnight, WSJ’s Timiraos wrote that, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, “Unofficially, the process seems to be all but over, with President Trump appearing to favour longtime adviser Kevin Hassett.”.
- Bund Dec’25 is contained in a thin 128.18-35 band this morning. Specifics light. No move in Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP for November, the headline came in hotter-than-expected and ticked up from the prior, while Services lifted from the previous rate. Overall, the hotter-than-expected series chimes with the view that the ECB’s easing cycle has likely concluded.
- Gilts underperform. If the move continues, we look to support for the Gilt Mar’26 contract at 90.53, a double-bottom from the session of and before the Budget. Currently, the low is 90.98, taking out Monday’s base by a tick. A move that lifted the UK 10yr yield back above the 4.5% mark. However, this pressure proved somewhat fleeting as the benchmark bounced and has made its way back to the unchanged mark. Nothing fresh, though the OBR briefing is underway and we note remarks from BoE officials on the morning’s FSR/FPC briefings.
- Saudi National Bank is seeking a USD 1bln syndicated loan, via Bloomberg. Loan is being syndicated to the broader market, incl. Asia, according to sources cited.
- JGB’s led overnight after a strong 10yr auction and in a bit of a breather from the largely Ueda-induced selling seen at the start of the week. To a 134.72 peak with gains of just over 20 ticks at best.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.49x), real yield 0.949% (prev. 0.889%)
- Germany sells EUR 3.563bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.7x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.05% (prev. 1.98%), retention 20.82% (prev. 24.68%)
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent continue to trade within Monday’s post-OPEC range of USD 58.83-59.97/bbl and USD 62.69-63.82/bbl, respectively, as a pause in output hike and rising geopolitical concerns continue to support crude prices in the near term. WTI and Brent peaked at the start of the APAC session at USD 59.67/bbl and 63.36/bbl before falling to troughs of 59.09/bbl and 62.88/bbl.
- XAU and XAG traded muted at the start of the European session. Oscillated in a tight USD 4201-4236/oz and USD 56.60-58/oz band, respectively. More recently, the yellow metal has fallen to make fresh session troughs of USD 4,181/oz – a move which lacked catalysts, but technicians highlight accelerating selling pressure after spot gold slipped below USD 4.2k/oz.
- 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 11.12k/t before rebounding to a session high of USD 11.27k/t as global risk tone slightly turns around following Monday’s selloff.
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HICP Flash YY (Nov) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%); Services 3.5% (prev. 3.4%); HICP Excluding Food & Energy Flash YY (Nov) 2.40% (Prev. 2.40%)
- EU Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%, Rev. 6.4%)
- UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)
- French Budget Balance (Oct) -136.17B (Prev. -155.4B)
- Hungarian GDP YY Final (Q3) 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
- UK Nationwide house price mm (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.2%)
- UK Nationwide house price yy (Nov) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Germany’s VDMA says that engineering orders have risen 4% in October Y/Y, and engineering orders have fallen 6% in Aug-Oct period.
- Italian Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 6.1%, Rev. 6.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Confederation of British Industry said Britain’s private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
- BoE Financial Policy Committee Record: System-wide level of Tier 1 capital requirements is now around 13% of risk-weighted assets, 1ppt lower than its previous benchmark of around 14%. CCyB maintained at 2%. “The Committee has also identified areas for further work, including on buffer usability, the implementation of the leverage ratio in the UK, and initiatives by the Bank to respond to feedback on interactions, proportionality, and complexity. Committee supports the Bank’s plans for a private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES)”.
- OECD sees global growth of 3.2% in 2025 (maintained from prev. forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (maintained), 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast).
- UK OBR’s Miles says it was not misleading for Chancellor Reeves to have said that the situation with public finances was very challenging.
- BoE Governor Bailey says he expects banks to support the economy through lending following recent capital changes.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- President Trump’s schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30EST/16:30GMT and will make an announcement at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
- Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman said it is important to finish Basel III, while she added they are working on a G-SIB surcharge.
- OpenAI’s Altman has declared a “code red” effort to enhance the quality of ChatGPT, via WSJ, citing an internal memo. Co. is delaying other products to do this. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google Gemini AI is of particular concern to Altman.
- Apple (AAPL) plans not to follow the order by the Indian government to preload phones with a state-run cyber safety app, according to Reuters, citing sources; Co. to voice its concerns around privacy and security following new app order
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- European Commission proposals for the Ukraine reparation loan should be distributed to member states tomorrow, and likely first discussion by EU ambassadors on Friday, according to Radio Liberty journalist
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
- Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov says US Special Envoy Witkoff and President Putin will discuss the understanding reached between the US and Ukraine, in a meeting at 14:00GMT/09:00EST, via TASS. S-400 and SU-57 fighter jets will be on the agenda.
OTHER
- Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump’s comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
- China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
- “Turkey says oil tanker attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”, according to Sky News Arabia. However, Sky News Arabia later clarifies, “Turkey says cargo ship attacked in Black Sea while sailing from Russia to Georgia”.
- Japan’s Defence Minister Koizumi is considering a visit to the US as early as mid-January to hold talks with War Secretary Hegseth, via Kyodo.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is essentially flat and trades just above USD 86k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals.
- Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day’s losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has completed development of its 6th-gen HBM4 and is entering full-scale mass production, via AJUNews.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -16.6B vs. Exp. -13.3B (Prev. -13.7B)
- Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Oct) -6.4% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Prev. 12.0%, Rev. 11.1%)
1c Asian opening report
European equities hold steady amid quiet APAC session – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 01:15 AM
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
- White House said the administration is very optimistic about Ukraine and had very good talks with the Ukrainian delegation.
- White House confirmed a meeting on Monday between US President Trump and the national security team regarding Venezuela, while it stated that many options are on the table.
- UK PM spokesperson said PM Starmer has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Flash CPI (Nov), Unemployment Rate, US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, BoE FSR, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished the first session of December in the red following a choppy session with equity futures initially sold alongside caution in APAC trade in response to soft China PMIs, while pressure then continued once Europe arrived, with the DAX lagging amid a downward revision to the German manufacturing PMI. However, around the opening bell, the risk tone in equities started to improve throughout the afternoon, before fading into the closing bell.
- SPX -0.53% at 6,813, NDX -0.36% at 25,343, DJI -0.89% at 47,289, RUT -1.25% at 2,469.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are reportedly finding workarounds to their government’s export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers, according to WSJ.
- EU dropped its complaint against Chinese trade curbs on Lithuania at the WTO.
- UK PM Starmer urged UK businesses to boost trade with China despite security threats, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- White House said US President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting on Tuesday and will make an announcement on the Trump Accounts, while President Trump’s schedule noted he will host a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 11:30EST/16:30GMT and will make an announcement at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.
- Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman said it is important to finish Basel III, while she added they are working on a G-SIB surcharge.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall Street, but with the upside capped amid quiet macro catalysts and in the absence of any tier-1 data.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains with the help of outperformance in energy, resources and mining, but with gains limited by underperformance in tech and utilities, while data was uninspiring with a larger-than-expected contraction in building approvals.
- Nikkei 225 nursed some of the prior day’s losses but with the rebound contained amid risks of a BoJ December hike.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp mostly traded mixed as participants reflected on a slew of monthly auto sales updates, while the mainland lagged after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain of CNY 146bln.
- US equity futures lacked direction with price action contained following yesterday’s choppy performance.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
FX
- DXY struggled for direction after the prior day’s flat performance amid a lack of major pertinent catalysts and following the recent ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which showed a surprise decline in the headline, indicating a worsening outlook for the sector amid further contractions in New Orders and Employment, although Prices Paid was firmer than expected.
- EUR/USD traded sideways overnight after recent swings and as ECB rhetoric continued to underscore the unlikelihood of any near-term policy adjustments, while participants look ahead to flash CPI data from the bloc.
- GBP/USD lingered near Monday’s trough after recent whipsawing and despite the UK and US agreeing to a zero-tariff pharma deal, although the deal called for the NHS to increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%.
- USD/JPY gradually clawed back most of yesterday’s losses and regained a firm footing at the 155.00 handle.
- Antipodeans conformed to the uneventful picture across the FX space in the absence of tier-1 data, although AUD/USD gradually edged higher amid the mostly constructive mood.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0794 vs exp. 7.0746 (Prev. 7.0759)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures saw some slight reprieve from the prior day’s selling after pressure was seen across the curve yesterday, with global fixed income weighed on by the recent comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who hinted about a December rate hike, while Treasuries were also not helped by a slew of corporate issuances and as rising crude prices bolstered inflation expectations.
- Bund futures languished at yesterday’s trough after suffering from the global bond selling.
- 10yr JGB futures nursed some on the recent losses with mild support seen in the aftermath of the latest 10yr JGB auction, which attracted higher demand but resulted in lower accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures took a breather after gaining yesterday, following the OPEC+ decision to maintain output throughout Q1 2026 and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Also on the geopolitical front, President Trump was reported to hold a meeting with the national security team on Venezuela in which many options were said to be on the table.
- Spot gold mildly retreated and briefly tested the USD 4,200/oz level to the downside with headwinds seen as copper and silver prices pulled back from recent peaks.
- Copper futures trickled lower with LME prices on a comedown from record highs, despite the mostly positive risk tone.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin clawed back some of its recent losses, albeit in a choppy fashion and returned to above the USD 87,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBNZ Governor Breman said she will discuss with the MPC the possibility of being more transparent with how members vote, while she added that the mandate is very clear that we should focus on keeping inflation low and stable. Breman said that they aim to support a healthy, strong and growing economy, but keep inflation low and stable. It was separately reported that the RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q3) -16.6B vs. Exp. -13.3B (Prev. -13.7B)
- Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Oct) -6.4% vs. Exp. -4.5% (Prev. 12.0%, Rev. 11.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump held a phone call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and invited him to the White House in the near future.
- Arab media reported new Israeli attacks in Khan Yunis and Rafah, according to Iran International.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- White House said the administration is very optimistic about Ukraine and had very good talks with the Ukrainian delegation.
- French President Macron discussed the situation in Ukraine with US President Trump and emphasised the central importance of the security guarantees needed for Ukraine.
- European Commission President von der Leyen said the situation at the border with Belarus is worsening, and the EU is preparing further measures under its sanctions regime.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.
OTHER
- White House confirmed a meeting on Monday between US President Trump and the national security team regarding Venezuela, while it stated that many options are on the table and that War Secretary Hegseth spoke with members of Congress over the weekend regarding Venezuelan strikes.
- Venezuelan President Maduro reportedly asked for sanction removal for more than 100 officials during a previous call with US President Trump. Furthermore, Trump gave Maduro a Friday deadline to leave Venezuela with his family, while the failure to meet the Friday deadline prompted Trump’s comments on Saturday about the closure of airspace, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesota tax dollars may have been diverted to Al-Shabaab.
- China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel in the waters of the Senkaku Islands on Tuesday.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM spokesperson said PM Starmer has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves.
- UK OBR Chair Hughes has written to submit resignation following the Budget day publishing error.
- Confederation of British Industry said Britain’s private sector expects output to decline during the next three months in the gloomiest outlook since May as cautious consumer spending and cost pressures continue to weigh on businesses.
- ECB’s Kocher said slight deviations above or below the 2% target should not trigger any need for action on rates now, while Kocher added that they should keep enough powder dry to be able to react quickly if necessary, according to the Kurier newspaper.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)
b. JAPAN
JAPAN/CHINA
Fued escalates!
Chinese, Japanese Boats In Tense Standoff Near Disputed Islands As Taiwan-Related Feud Escalates
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 09:00 AM
The severe diplomatic standoff which was triggered by last month’s words of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wherein she suggested Japan would militarily aid in Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion is increasingly becoming a potential military standoff. We earlier detailed that Japan has even deployed medium-range missiles to a remote Japanese island not far from China.
Already there’s been a confrontation involving China’s coast guard boats, which attempted to run off a Japanese fishing vessel for allegedly being inside claimed Chinese waters. The fresh incident happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday.
The Japanese boat is accused of entering the waters of the Diaoyu Islands – which Tokyo calls the Senkaku Islands and has long administered.
But a nearby Japanese Coast Guard ship which had been accompanying the fishing vessel then in turn expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships as they approached and tried to enforce Beijing’s expansive maritime claims over the territory.
The area is already a bit of a flashpoint between the two historic rivals, as Taiwan is located just less than 100 miles southwest of the Senkaku Islands. There are conflicting accounts of the incident, with the Chinese side relating as follows:
China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson Liu Dejun said that Chinese vessels on Tuesday approached and warned off a Japanese fishing boat that had “illegally entered the territorial waters of China’s Diaoyu Dao”, according to a state media report.
Liu added that the CCG took “necessary law enforcement measures”, claiming that the islands were Chinese territory and urging Japan to “immediately stop all acts of infringement and provocation in these waters”.
However, Japan has countered that its coast guard boats approached the Chinese vessels shortly after they were seen breaching Japanese waters and issued warnings and threats demanding they leave sovereign waters.
The current broader standoff over PM Takaichi’s Taiwan comments is now trickling down to the common populations on either side, as events like concerts have been canceled:
The abrupt cancellations of several Japanese music events in Shanghai – one of them midway through a song – have sparked criticism among fans, with some calling the moves “rude” and “extreme”.
Maki Otsuki was halfway through the theme of hit anime One Piece on Friday when the lights and music went off, after which she was rushed off stage by two crew members.
On Saturday, pop star Ayumi Hamasaki performed to an empty 14,000-seat stadium after organizers axed her concert in Shanghai, citing “force majeure”.
This spate of cancellations come as diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo fester over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan.
China earlier warned Japan will suffer a “crushing” defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing’s anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.
Last month China’s foreign ministry warned that “Right-wing forces in Japan are … leading Japan and the region toward disaster.“ Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning further told a regular news briefing. Beijing “is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty.”
3. CHINA
Evergrand-er: Chinese Property Market On Verge Of Fresh Collapse As Vanke Bonds Implode
Evergrand-er: Chinese Property Market On Verge Of Fresh Collapse As Vanke Bonds Implode
“This proposal shatters the last illusion for investors”
EXPLANATION:
China’s Property Sector: Echoes of Evergrande as Vanke’s Bond Crisis Signals Deeper Turmoil
The headline “Evergrand-er: Chinese Property Market On Verge Of Fresh Collapse As Vanke Bonds Implode” captures a grim reality unfolding in China’s real estate landscape as of December 2025. It draws a direct parallel to the 2021 implosion of China Evergrande Group, which triggered the ongoing property crisis, but now spotlights China Vanke Co.—once the sector’s largest developer by sales—as the latest flashpoint. With Vanke’s bonds cratering and repayment delays in play, investors are questioning Beijing’s ability to shield even state-backed giants from the $300 billion+ debt hangover. Below, I’ll break down the situation, its roots, and potential fallout, based on recent developments.Quick Recap: Evergrande’s Lingering ShadowEvergrande’s collapse wasn’t just a corporate failure; it was a seismic event that exposed systemic risks in China’s property sector, which once accounted for ~30% of GDP. Key milestones:
- 2021 Default: Evergrande missed $300 billion in liabilities, sparking protests from unfinished-home buyers and global market jitters.
- 2023-2024 Liquidation: U.S. bankruptcy filing, followed by Hong Kong court-ordered wind-up in January 2024.
- 2025 Delisting: Shares delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 24, 2025, after 15+ years. Liquidators are now clawing back assets, including a recent court injunction freezing $220 million tied to founder Hui Ka Yan’s ex-wife across multiple jurisdictions.
- Ongoing Impact: The unwind drags on with 1,300 stalled projects in 280 cities, eroding household wealth (property is a key savings vehicle for Chinese families) and contributing to a 2.2% year-on-year drop in new home prices as of October 2025.
This crisis rippled outward, hitting peers like Country Garden (facing a January 2026 liquidation hearing) and now Vanke, amplifying fears of a “fresh collapse.”Vanke’s Bond Implosion: The Breaking PointVanke, 30% owned by state giant Shenzhen Metro Group, was long seen as “too big to fail”—a benchmark for government support. But liquidity woes have shattered that illusion. Here’s the timeline of the latest meltdown:
| Date | Key Event | Bond/Stock Impact | Source Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25-26, 2025 | Media reports speculate debt restructuring; Vanke proposes delaying 2B yuan ($283M) onshore bond repayment due Dec 15 (first-ever extension). | Yuan bond (Mar 2027) falls to 40/100 par value (from 85); dollar bond (2027) hits 23 cents (down 17 cents, record low since 2017). HK shares at record low; Shenzhen shares lowest since 2008. Trading halts on 7 bonds. | Bloomberg, Reuters |
| Nov 27-28, 2025 | Bondholder meeting set for Dec 10; S&P downgrades Vanke, citing “unsustainable” commitments and weak liquidity amid 11.4B yuan maturities by May 2026. | Yuan bond (Mar 2027) plunges 22.5% to 31/100; multiple bonds drop 20%+, triggering suspensions. | Reuters, SCMP |
| Nov 30-Dec 2, 2025 | Vanke seeks one-year deferral on Dec 15 bond (principal + 3% interest); Shenzhen Metro pledges up to 22B yuan loans for 2025-H1 2026 (on top of 30B already extended). | Yuan bond (May 2028) falls 22% to 23/100, halting trade. Overall liabilities: 364B yuan. | Reuters, GlobalData |
Vanke’s troubles stem from a prolonged slump: Sales have tanked, projects stalled, and despite state loans, cash burn outpaces inflows. Analysts note this could dwarf Evergrande’s fallout due to Vanke’s national footprint in top-tier cities.Broader Market and Economic Ripples
- Contagion Risks: Vanke’s plunge has revived sector-wide panic, with sovereign bond traders eyeing fixed-income fund redemptions. Peers like New World Development are swapping $1.9B in bonds at haircuts, eroding creditor trust.
- Government Response: Beijing’s “three red lines” policy (curbing developer debt) continues, but support feels patchy—Shenzhen Metro’s aid buys time, not salvation. Regulators are probing bond disclosure failures to prevent panic.
- Economic Drag: Property’s woes shave ~1.5 percentage points off 2025 GDP growth (down from 2.5 in 2022), fueling underemployment (50% youth rate) and half-empty malls. Home prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in October—the sharpest in a year.
- Global Echoes: Limited direct spillover (China’s capital controls help), but watch for commodity hits (steel, copper) and yuan pressure. X chatter highlights investor flight: “Vanke’s USD bonds down 60% this week—state backing cracking?” [post:20]
Outlook: Stabilize or Spiral?A Vanke default could trigger a “domino effect” on other developers, but Beijing’s playbook—more loans, project bailouts—might contain it short-term. Long-term, the sector needs demand revival (e.g., via rate cuts or urbanization boosts), but Xi’s deleveraging push prioritizes stability over stimulus. As one analyst put it: “Vanke exposes cracks in the rescue strategy.”
globaldata.com Expect volatility into 2026; for now, it’s Evergrande 2.0, with higher stakes.If this is a prompt for deeper dives (e.g., bond yields chart or specific forecasts), let me know—I’ve got the tools.
END
CHINA RUSSIA
Putin Increasingly Depends On Beijing For His Growing Arsenal Of Military Drones
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 02:00 AM
While Russia is routinely portrayed as a serious military power, as the war drags on, Russia is becoming more and more reliant on Chinese drone components to survive.
Now, China’s drone component supplier Wang Dinhua has just purchased a 5 percent stake in Russia’s Rustakt, a top drone manufacturer in Russia.
Rustakt is subject to sanctions imposed by both Ukraine and the European Union, reports Do Rzeczy, citing an article from FInancial TImes.
Samuel Bendett, a drone expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted the growing cooperation between the Russian and Chinese military-industrial complexes, as well as Putin’s reliance on Chinese components for Russia’s growing drone needs.
However, this reliance is nothing new.
Another Russian company, Aero-HIT, has also benefitted from this partnership, reportedly producing up to 10,000 drones per month this year.
It also plans to produce more advanced models.
China is generally considered the leading drone component manufacturer in the world, dominating much of the supply chain to the point that many of the components also purchased by the United States also come from China.
Ukraine has also discovered laser sensors manufactured by a South African company in Russian drones attacking its cities.
It remains unclear how products intended for civilian use ended up on the kamikaze drones, the independent Russian-language website The Moscow Times reported on Friday.
Laser rangefinders from several countries, including South Africa, have been detected in long-range drones modified from the Iranian Shahed, according to Vladislav Vasilyuk, a Ukrainian official responsible for sanctions policy.
Industrial lasers from South Africa’s Lightware are small and lightweight, making them suitable for installation in drones.
The supply of military equipment to countries engaged in armed conflict without the consent of the South African government is prohibited, but Lightware is not registered as a trader in ammunition or dual-use products or technologies.
END
Britain Is Lost
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 03:30 AM
A recent interview Tucker Carlson had with George Galloway, a long-time member of the British Parliament and with a show himself in Britain, who was recently detained at the border under terrorism charges for, apparently, the opinions broadcast on his show.
No nation has fallen quicker or more completely than Britain into the totalitarian mindset.
It’s why we highlighted this aspect of modern Europe into the film Deconstruction.
Britain, as long as it pursues the same oppression of free speech as the Soviet Union, can not be called or considered an ally of the United States.
This is what we have to decide as a people, the American people, who will and who will not be our allies. Governments, especially now, are poor judges of character. They will hold onto traditional alliances, when those alliances have long been strained, simply because they would be unsure of what that would do to international relationships. If we lose Britain, France and Germany as allies, what effect does that have on NATO?
My question, however, is what damage does continued alliances with nations who punish their people for what they have said, posted or broadcast do to international perception? Are we not tarnished by their brush? Yes. It also signals that the United States is not determined to uphold the right to free speech. That in order to maintain these alliances will betray their own people.
As Britain, France and Germany turn toward implementing a police state to support immigrants who rape and kill their sons and daughters, put protesters in jail and silence not only their own citizens, but any who arrive through the internet, can they still be considered allies of a free nation? No. So, how free is that “free” nation? It is not free as it supports and continues alliances with nations diametrically opposed, not only to free speech, but a series of democratic principles.
The battle taking place within the European nations draw a stark contrast to the Central and Eastern European nations, formerly Soviet client states, who distance themselves from European Union dictates that promote illegal migration and the silencing of objectors.
The whole idea of democracy comes from the idea that the people have a say in who governs them and the policies they impose. When freedom of speech is so blatantly outlawed and only approved narratives permitted, there is no democracy. I don’t know what sort of government Britain has, but it is not a democracy as it claims. Yes, I know it’s technically a Monarchy, but the King or Queen has nowhere near the political power they once held.
All of this centers around illegal migration, it’s where people like Keir Starmer intend to derive their power, in the end. If he supports the replacement population when it is unpopular to do so, they might look kindly on him when the Islamists take full control of the politics, but he is a useful idiot.
They continue to put forth the idea that a declining birthrate is the reason for the importation of these migrants, but if European and American birthrates are dropping, as it is in all Western societies, it would seem that the logical conclusion would be to outlaw abortion, not import rapists and murderers.
But that’s not the reason. It isn’t the birthrate, it’s an attempt to forever change politics that eliminates the right, the Christians. This point was made clear by Viktor Orban in the film Deconstruction that’s coming out soon.
Communists and Islamists work well together. They have the same goal, supremacy through murder and imprisonment of an uncompliant populace. Democracies must tolerate the naysayers, the critics, that’s the difference. It won’t be long and the UK will be an Islamic nation, just as Iran became an Islamic nation. Are they still allies of the US? If so, why are not all Islamic nations allies? Because Islamic nations are at war with the US. “Death to America” does not seem like the pronouncement of an ally. Will it be heard across Britain, while we still consider it a close ally? Of course.
The United States had better figure this out, too. The only true allies the US has in Europe are the Central and Eastern European nations.
They are also the ones that need more protection from Russia and China, because, as smaller economies, they can’t afford to be too choosy about who they do business with and the more that the United States can be a better economic partner, the stronger we will all be.
The world is changing rapidly and our government is incapable of keeping up with the pace. It has to be led by the people.
The film Deconstruction makes this point.
Here’s a trailer that we’ve produced that gives one a sense of where we’re going with the message of the film.
It’s important, because a lot of changes are coming down the pike and if we don’t build some sort of resistance mechanism by which the people will have an increasing say in what policies our government promotes, all is lost. Governments can’t understand issues as quickly as the people can. When the internet came along, the government did not prevent corporations from using and selling information required to establish an account. They did nothing, now it’s just a land of pillage and plunder, unless one spends an inordinate amount of time protecting oneself from it.
AI is coming and the government is not in a position to be able to control it, or protect its citizens from being victimized. Already, I get AI solicitations for marketing my books. No human has read the books and has come up with the information about them. I delete those, even though they are quite complimentary about my work. I don’t want anything to do with AI, or as little as I can tolerate. I don’t want anything to do with AI film production, even though it can be a lot cheaper and quick to produce.
There’s value in simply rejecting what is obviously detrimental to the people. Who gains form AI? Just corporations. Yes, it might be slightly more convenient, but is that worth the ultimate sacrifice of a doomed economy, soaring electric costs and depleted water resources? Not to me.
The need to fight back is urgent. And I expect my warnings to go unheeded, as always. The average person is much too willing to give up, to not fight it when everyone in a position of power decides something. This was illustrated during the pandemic. A lot of us knew it was a false flag, that what they were saying was untrue, that masks didn’t help, that the vaccine wasn’t even a vaccine, but a DNA altering injection. Yet, everywhere I went, people just lined up and took it, accepted the ridiculous distancing and mask wearing.
We’re now in for a lot of that, because it was not ridiculed out of existence from the very beginning. That’s the power of the people, the ability to ridicule nonsense. Finally, slowly, the whole transgender nonsense is losing potency due to that very ridicule that we all possess naturally. Use it.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
END
IDF kills senior PIJ Gaza City Brigade cmdr. who infiltrated Kibbutz Nahal Oz on Oct. 7
The strike followed Islamic Jihad and Hamas violations of the ceasefire, including fire at Israeli forces on November 22, according to the military.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3981104&url=https://www.jpost.com/The IDF strike killing Alaa al-Din Abd al-Nasser Hasan Khudar, the Nukhba commander within the Islamic Jihad Gaza City Brigade. December 1, 2025. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 1, 2025 20:00Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2025 21:12
Alaa al-Din Abd al-Nasser Hasan Khudar, a Nukhba commander within Palestinian Islamic Jihad Gaza City Brigade, was killed in an airstrike in the Gaza Strip, the military said on Monday.
Khudar infiltrated Kibbutz Nahal Oz on October 7, 2023, and continued attacks on Israel throughout the war, according to the IDF.
Kibbutz Nahal Oz was among the communities hardest hit on Oct. 7, with residents killed, wounded, and abducted.
The strike followed Islamic Jihad and Hamas violations of the ceasefire, including reportedly firing at Israeli forces on November 22, according to the military.
The IDF carried out a series of strikes on terror targets, operatives, and commanders across Gaza after the ceasefire was broken.
The operation was directed by the IDF Intelligence Directorate, with the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) providing intelligence, the IDF added.
IDF kills terrorists involved in October 7 attacks
The military has announced the deaths of several terrorists involved in the Oct. 7 attacks, including commanders who infiltrated other Gaza border communities and those who held Israelis hostage.
Security forces said in August that they killed a Hamas terrorist who participated in the abduction of Yarden Bibas from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7.
In April, the military said it had killed a senior commander of the Palestinian Mujahideen terrorist organization who had infiltrated Nir Oz multiple times and was likely personally involved in the abductions and murders of Shiri Bibas and her sons, Ariel and Kfir.
Additionally, in July, the IDF and Shin Bet announced the death of the terrorist who held Emily Damari hostage.
END
Son of senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad killed fleeing Rafah tunnel – report
Hamad was one of the terrorists killed by the IDF while trying to flee from a tunnel in Rafah on Sunday, the Hamas-affiliated Quds News Network reported.
Ghazi Hamad, member of Hamas Political Office, delivers remarks on the Israel-Hamas war during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, November 2, 2023; illustrative.(photo credit: REUTERS/ALAA AL-MARJANI)ByDANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARDDECEMBER 1, 2025 17:11
Hamas terrorist Abdullah Hamad, the son of senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, was killed in Rafah on Sunday, according to social media posts by the family and reports in local Palestinian media.
Hamad was one of the terrorists killed by the IDF while trying to flee from a tunnel in Rafah on Sunday, the Hamas-affiliated Quds News Network reported.
Sources within the Hamad family also reportedly confirmed the death to The Palestinian Information Center.
Mohammed Hamad reportedly told the center, “My beloved, the light of my heart, Abdullah, has become a martyr. He departed bravely, not fleeing, under siege and in combat in the tunnels of Rafah. He met The Almighty with contentment and faith.”
“Abdullah’s martyrdom didn’t pain me, for by God, it was his peace and the path he chose,” Mohammed Hamad posted on Instagram. “What pained me was knowing for months that he was hungry, thirsty, exhausted, and trapped underground, only a few kilometers from me, and I couldn’t even send him a sip of water, or a fleeting greeting of longing.”
The IDF has not yet confirmed Hamad’s death.
END
Hamas to turn over remains of one of remaining deceased Gaza hostages, official tells Reuters
Earlier, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed Israel was preparing to receive “findings” from the Red Cross that were transferred from the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian Hamas terrorists speak with members of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) who are accompanying Egyptian workers, as they search for the last two remaining bodies of hostages in the northern of Gaza Strip on December 1, 2025.(photo credit: Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP via Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 2, 2025 13:11Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2025 14:29
Hamas is turning over the remains of one of the two remaining deceased hostages still in Gaza, one of the terror group’s officials told Reuters on Tuesday afternoon.
Earlier, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed Israel was preparing to receive “findings” from the Red Cross that were transferred from the Gaza Strip.
“Israel is preparing to receive from the Red Cross findings that were transferred from the Gaza Strip,” the PMO stated. It is yet unclear if the “findings” refer to remains belonging to a hostage.
The statement added that the findings will be sent for examination at the National Institute of Forensic Medicine.
Authorities in continuous contact with families of hostages still in Gaza
The PMO continued, emphasizing that the authorities responsible for handling missing persons are in continuous contact with the families of the two remaining hostages in Gaza.
Those hostages are Thai national Sudthisak Rinthalak and Staff-Sergeant Major Ran Gvili.
This is a developing story.
Hezbollah killed Lebanese figures threatening to expose 2020 Beirut port blast plans, IDF reveals
The four individuals allegedly assassinated were customs department officers and journalists who pointed to Hezbollah’s connection with the deadly explosion.
A view of damaged buildings after massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon, August 5, 2020(photo credit: ZAATARI LEBANON/Flash90)ByJAMES GENNDECEMBER 2, 2025 19:49Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2025 20:59
Hezbollah’s Unit 121 assassinated four Lebanese figures out of fear that they would expose links between the terror group and the 2020 Beirut Port explosion, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee claimed on Tuesday.
The explosion, which occurred in August 2020, is widely believed to have been caused by Hezbollah’s storage of ammonium nitrate.
The four individuals allegedly assassinated were customs department officers and journalists who pointed to Hezbollah’s connection with the deadly explosion, Adraee commented.
Hezbollah denied its involvement in the deaths of the four individuals.
Adraee provided IDF intelligence on each of the four deaths.
Joseph Skaff was the head of customs inspections at the port, who was allegedly thrown from a height by Unit 121 assassins in 2017 after he requested that Hezbollah remove their stockpiles of ammonium nitrate from the port.
Mounir Abou Rjeily headed the anti-smuggling division in the customs department and was allegedly stabbed to death by Unit 121 assassins in December 2020 after he provided information to the authorities concerning Hezbollah’s link to the explosion.
Joe Bejjani was a photographer who was among the first to document the aftermath of the explosion and worked alongside the Lebanese Armed Forces to aid in the investigation. He was shot dead in his car in December 2020, assassins stealing his phone before fleeing the scene.
Lokman Slim was an outspoken political activist and journalist who frequently criticized the terror group. Slim was also shot to death in his car in February 2021, shortly after publicly accusing Hezbollah and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad of responsibility for the explosion.
Adraee ties Hezbollah’s Unit 121 to other assassinations, warns IDF has ‘long list’ of add’l murders
Adraee concluded his statement by noting that these four were not the only individuals assassinated by the terror group. Former prime minister Rafic Hariri, assassinated in 2005, and Christian Lebanese politician Elias Hasrouni, were also assassinated by the terror group.
The IDF is in possession of intelligence of a “long list we have yet to expose” containing additional instances when Unit 121 assassinated Lebanese officials and opponents of Hezbollah, Adraee warned.
SYRIA/ISRAEL
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia Proclaims Final Victory Over Key City Of Pokrovsk On Eve Of Putin-Witkoff Peace Plan Meeting
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 05:10 PM
Update(1710ET): Russia finally and formally announced Monday its forces have captured the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, the long fought-over strategic military logistics hub, as well as the city of Vovchansk in the northeast.
The capture of Pokrovsk has long been seen as inevitable, after starting weeks ago Russian troops were filmed patrolling freely and casually in a southern district of the city which had a pre-war population of 60,000.
Russia’s military chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, on Sunday had “informed [President] Vladimir Putin of the liberation of the cities of Krasnoarmeysk and Vovchansk,” according to the Kremlin statement first released on Telegram Monday. Krasnoarmeysk is the Russian name for Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk has long been seen as military gateway for control over the whole east, and if there were any doubts about Russia’s military dominance along the frontlines – the overrunning of Pokrovsk has laid these doubts to rest. Russian media is in a celebratory mood…
RT writes of the huge development, “The Russian Ministry of Defense has released frontline footage of its forces operating in key logistics hub Krasnoarmeysk in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic.”
“The city, which is known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine, along with Volchansk in Kharkov Region, has been fully liberated by Russian forces as of Monday, the chief of Russia’s General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, told President Vladimir Putin during a visit to a command post on November 30.”
The state media report continues, “In the raw video footage provided by the MOD, soldiers of Russia’s Center joint group of forces can be seen sprinting from cover to cover and clearing buildings in Krasnoarmeysk.”
Russian troops have been taking the city district by district for over the past month, and the precise timing of the Kremlin’s announcement to have ‘liberated’ it is without doubt intentional and strategic. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet with President Putin on Tuesday. He will be presenting a revised Trump-backed peace plan, coming off Sunday’s meeting with the Ukrainian delegation in Miami, at a moment Ukrainian defense lines in key sectors are collapsing.
As a reminder, all of these battlefield development are unfolding rapidly while Kiev is suffering its worst political crisis of the war, and the Zelensky government is struggling to unify itself and be “on message” – also amid an embarrassing and far reaching corruption scandal and investigation.
Both sides kept their comments somewhat vague after the US and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami on Sunday to discuss a potential outline for a peace deal to end the war with Russia. One of the Ukrainian delegates called it “intense but not negative.” Axios wrote, “After an hour in a wider format, the meeting narrowed to three officials from each side — with the line of territorial control virtually the only issue discussed, according to the two Ukrainian officials.”
The American side which was led Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited simply that there’s “more work to be done,” including more direct engagement with Russia, also as Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow this week to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the talks, despite not actually having an official position in the Trump administration. Axios reports some of the details gleaned thus far as follows:
Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, two Ukrainian officials tell Axios. They described the five-hour meeting as “difficult” and “intense,” but productive.
Rubio said in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, “We had another very productive session, building off Geneva, building off the events of this week. As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war, but it’s more than just to end the war. We don’t just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever, so never again will they face another invasion.”
This presumably is a reference to security guarantees, which were outlined in the Trump-proposed plan and likened to Article 5-like protections, something which Moscow is likely to reject if it does actually invite the possibility of future NATO military intervention.
Rubio is still only emphasizing laying the “groundwork” at this late stage. “And so this is comprehensive, what we’re working on here today. It’s not just about the terms that end fighting. It’s about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva,” he described.
As for the degree to which the Zelensky government is actually on board, Rubio acknowledged, “I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war, which is very important. It is about securing Ukraine’s future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it’s ever been.”
Amid the typical vagueness present in such post-meeting comments, Rubio did note that progress was made. “I think additional progress was made, and we continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we’ve made progress,” he said. But a key question remains the degree to which the Ukrainians finally expressed willingness to make territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea.
The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council, after Andriy Yermak, who was until Friday Zelensky’s top aide and chief negotiator, resigned – or rather was pressured out -following a police raid on his home by anti-corruption investigators. He has since dramatically announce that he has gone to the front lines. Some say he is hiding from investigators, which can’t reach him in a military zone.
Umerov began his post-meeting remarks, “Once again, we are grateful to American people, American leadership and great team with State Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us. Our objective is prosperous, strong Ukraine. We were discussing about the future of Ukraine.”
He continued, without tipping his cards, “We worked. We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today, we continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful.”
So territorial concessions and security guarantees remain the central sticking points, with many analysts saying now that Umerov is running point, and with Yermak pushed aside, President Trump’s vision for bringing an end to the war could be more easily accomplished.
At this moment, US officials say Witkoff is expected to submit updated documents in his upcoming meeting with President Putin that incorporate the latest talks and revisions that were made with Kiev and European leaders.
Still, the Ukrainian side didn’t look happy based on the few photographs of the meeting’s start which emerged. The Trump administration is definitely in the driver’s seat, and Europe is not even at the table. This is likely become they know the clock is ticking on the battlefield, where as Moon of Alabama has noted, “The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle.” The geopolitical analysis source continues:
As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too.
There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine.
The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas: “We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.”
Moon of Alabama quips rhetorically: “Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?”
Below are more of the latest Monday morning headlines and developments via Newsquawk…
* * *
- Russia’s Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
- US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
- Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
- Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
- Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
- NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
- NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.
Little public optimism for a quick peace by close of this year:
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/EUROPE
Putin Says ‘Ready For War’ Against Europe If Attacks On Russian Tankers, Energy Continue
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 10:45 AM
US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law and unofficial diplomat Jared Kushner have been at the Kremlin on Tuesday for high-level talks with President Vladimir Putin. The Americans are presenting Trump’s Ukraine peace plan in its current form after the high stakes Miami meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, which focused on ceding territory and what future boundaries might look like in the Donbass.
President Putin’s public words in the context of the meeting wherein the US side is formally pitching the plan have presented an opportunity for him to lash out at Europe. If Europe starts a war with Russia, soon there will be “no one left to negotiate with” – he warned after several EU and NATO officials have lately issued hawkish words and threats.
Russia is not planning to fight European countries, but if Europe starts a war, Russia is “ready right now” – the Russian leader said. The Kremlin had last month issued a generally positive outlook on what it framed as genuine efforts of the Trump administration to reach peace settlement in Ukraine. Putin has previously said the now 19-point plan could be a workable basis on which to find a solution. By day’s end Tuesday, the world might get a better glimpse of how this is proceeding.
But on the question of Europe, which has been largely sidelined when it comes to the US peace plan version, Putin is angry. He denounced a recent series of drone strikes on oil and gas tankers carrying Russian energy exports acts of “piracy”.
He also on Tuesday made clear that European demands related to Moscow are not at all acceptable, suggesting that they are by intention an effort to prod and anger Russia. He said that “Europe only proposes unacceptable demands,” according to Interfax. “They are on the side of war,” he said of the Europeans.
“Russia has no intention of going to war with European countries. But if Europe wants war Russia is ready” – Putin has told journalists before meeting Witkoff and Kushner.
“Europe has withdrawn itself from the Ukrainian settlement. It has no peace agenda, and now they are hindering US efforts to achieve a settlement,” Putin said additionally. “Europe is putting forward proposals for a peace plan for Ukraine that are unacceptable to Russia.”
Importantly, he also vowed to expand strikes on Ukrainian ports, as retaliation for the some four tankers which have already been hit by Ukrainian attacks, which are believed to have had the support of Western intelligence. According to more of his words via newswires:
- Europeans have detached from the talks themselves.
- Attacks on tankers near Turkey are piracy.
- Will take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine.
- Will increase strikes on facilities and Ukrainian vessels.
- If attacks continue, Russia may strike Ukraine tankers.
President Zelensky has meanwhile admitted the road ahead will be “tough” – but he’s yet to outright reject the Trump-proposed plan, also knowing he could be cut off in terms of US funding and political support at any time. “Now, more than ever, there is a chance to end this war,” he has has said during a Tuesday visit to Ireland.
* * *
Below is a note contextualizing where things stand via Rabobank…
Ukraine is saying there are still “tough issues” to be resolved to get to a peace deal, but the US revolver on the table may overcome them: the White House team is in Moscow to negotiate; Europeans are not at the table. That’s as Russia claimed Filipino troops are fighting in Ukraine(!); a test of its Satan II ballistic missile failed; a Chinese firm took a stake in a Russian drone maker; and Russia claimed it’s finally captured the strategic Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk.
Europe is to revamp its border-control force and told the White House it won’t accept a pardon for Putin’s war crimes in any deal – but what if the US agrees one? The WSJ says ‘Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future.’ That all smells like a lot more military spending for Europe, and faster than timetabled; or a split between those who see it as necessary and those who think you can defend yourself with committees and acronyms.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
Their new mRNA influenza vaccine failed
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Pfizer mRNA Influenza Vaccine ‘Failed’ In Clinical Trial Among Seniors: FDA Commissioner
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 01:40 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Pfizer’s experimental influenza vaccine will not receive approval absent new data proving that it protects seniors against the flu, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration suggested in a new interview.
The messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) shot “failed in seniors,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA commissioner, said during an appearance on Nov. 29 on Fox News.
“The trial showed zero benefit,” he said.
“We’re not just going to rubber-stamp new products that don’t work, that fail in a clinical trial. It makes a mockery of science if we’re just going to rubber-stamp things with no data.”
Pfizer’s media team did not respond to a request for comment.
The experimental mRNA shot performed better in a trial than an already-approved vaccine from a different company among healthy people aged 18 to 64, researchers with Pfizer and other organizations said in a recent paper published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).
The researchers did not mention that among vaccinated seniors, or people aged 65 and older, in the same trial, 0.5 percent suffered influenza-like illness and had laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. That was the same percentage as recipients of a licensed vaccine.
Many more seniors—68.7 percent—reported adverse reactions within seven days of Pfizer vaccination compared with just 25.8 percent of recipients of the existing vaccine, the results also showed.
The results from the seniors in the trial were posted to ClinicalTrials.gov earlier this year and highlighted following publication of the paper by independent journalists and members of the panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines, including Retsef Levi, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“I find this to be a major integrity failure in the peer-review process. The NEJM editorial board should provide a clear explanation how this failure has occurred and … require the authors to correct the current articles and report on the entire results of the trial,” Levi told The Epoch Times in an email.
“The study authors are best able to answer your question,” a spokesperson for the journal told The Epoch Times in an email when asked why the results for seniors were not included in the paper.
The study’s corresponding author, who works for Pfizer, did not return an inquiry.
Makary’s comments came after Dr. Vinay Prasad, who heads the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, wrote in a memorandum that officials will be revising the current framework for influenza vaccines, which he called “an evidence-based catastrophe of low-quality evidence, poor surrogate assays, and uncertain vaccine effectiveness measured in case-control studies with poor methods.” He indicated that more details would be forthcoming after internal conversations.
The current framework features annual approvals of updated shots that target strains projected to circulate.
The FDA says on its website on a page updated in 2024 that FDA-approved flu vaccines “are safe and effective.” Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that the vaccines’ effectiveness against influenza since 2009 have ranged from 19 percent to 60 percent.
Prasad also said that for most new vaccines, officials will be requiring randomized trials that provide evidence of efficacy based on clinical endpoints, which can include prevention of disease.
Dr. Robert Malone, who leads the CDC advisory panel’s influenza workgroup, told The Epoch Times that the memo means “the entire influenza vaccine, annual vaccination enterprise is now subject to major disruption.”
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Truth is emerging that Epstein did not have ~10 victims that he shared among Presidents, Kings, MPs, congresspersons, senators, rich high-society ‘connected people; NO, he had thousands! all COVERD up
Jeffrey Epstein Had 1,000+ Victims; Industrial scale grooming and sexual abuse enterprise far larger than previously believed is revealed in new document; read Ken Klippenstein
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 2 |
‘As for Trump’s law enforcers and self-styled truth tellers who claim to be ending an era of politicization of the FBI and intelligence? It is entirely possible that in all the material they possess, there is no information about the johns. That’s because decades ago, they weren’t told to go after the men, or they decided not to. Either way, that’s the true cover-up, that no one was predisposed to investigate the perpetrators beyond Epstein and his staff, not in the Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden or Trump administrations.’
‘Jeffrey Epstein Had 1,000+ Victims
Industrial scale abuse enterprise far larger than previously believed is revealed in new document’
‘Twenty years after Jeffrey Epstein was exposed for his child sex abuse enterprise, the Justice Department this week made a startling revelation. Rather than the “dozens” of victims previously alleged by the government and media, Justice now says that there were “over one thousand” victims.
Everyone is talking about Epstein again, from MAGA types furious that the Trump administration is not producing a supposed client list, to the mainstream media, which is giddily mocking just about anyone critical of the Justice Department here as conspiracy theorists.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
One person who doesn’t want to talk about it is Donald Trump, who told New York Magazine in 2002 that his buddy Epstein was a “fun” guy who “likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”
Seldom one to shy away from blurting out whatever, when asked this week about the Epstein memo, Trump uncharacteristically changed the subject. He admonished the reporter, telling him that the question was a “desecration” to the lives lost in the Texas flood.
“Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein? This guy’s been talked about for years. We have Texas, we have this, we have all of the things — and are people still talking about this guy, this creep? That is unbelievable. Do you want to waste the time? I mean, I can’t believe you’re asking a question on Epstein at a time like this where we’re having some of the greatest success and also tragedy with what happened in Texas. It just seems like a desecration.”
Trump, of course, hung out with Epstein and feasted on his legendary get togethers in New York and West Palm Beach, so he probably isn’t keen on there being too much transparency here. But before this becomes a conspiracy theory itself, I note that former President Bill Clinton was also a frequent flier, especially on the Lolita Express which took prominent guests to Epstein’s private island. Those guests included financiers, billionaires, lawyers, and even a British prince.
The names of the hundreds (and now indeed possibly thousands) of johns involved — Jeffrey Epstein’s clients — have never been revealed by the government. Pam Bondi’s Justice Department evidently doesn’t have the stomach or the inclination to delve much deeper into the matter.
The new figure of over one thousand victims appears in a Trump administration’s review of FBI holdings concerning Epstein, a summary of which was released in the form of a two-page memo earlier this week.
“We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties,” the undated and unsigned memo says.
Justice says it reviewed “more than 300 gigabytes of data and physical evidence,” including “over ten thousand downloaded videos and images of illegal child sex abuse material.”
There is no client list, Justice says in its memo; this despite Bondi herself implying in February that such a list was on her desk. (She now says she was referring to files more generally.)
There are so many explanations and unanswered questions raised by the release, which also says that there is “no credible evidence … that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions.” That means that the theories alleging Epstein was operating some kind of operation to collect incriminating information for a foreign government (most notably the Israelis) has also been dismissed by the U.S. government.
Oh, and the memo says that because of this “exhaustive” search, there’s no need for Justice or the FBI to disclose anything further. This is a reversal of Trump’s promise to his voters that he would “take a look at” the Epstein case as president.
When the Justice Department indicted Epstein in 2019, it repeatedly referred to “dozens of minor girls” that he had abused. Federal prosecutors reportedly identified 36 underage victims in Florida, in line with the “dozens” described in the original federal indictment.
“Consistent with prior disclosures,” the Justice Department memo said this week, “this review confirmed that Epstein harmed over one thousand victims.”
There was no such prior disclosure that Epstein’s victims were so numerous.
When I read the “over one thousand” phrase, I was genuinely shocked by the number, and then even more so when no one in the major media reported it. So I reached out to the FBI to ask about the discrepancy.
“The FBI declines to comment,” an unnamed Bureau official responded in email. (The Justice Department has not even responded to my request for clarification.)
There are some bizarre theories about Epstein out there, my personal favorite being the notion that Epstein never actually died in prison and that the man who did was a body double.
But you don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to see there’s more here than we were told before. You just have to read the Justice Department’s review carefully — which the media evidently did not.
It’s as if no one in power wants to deal with the substance of this scandal: that an industrial scale child abuse operation was taking place right under the noses of the countless household names with whom Epstein socialized. Now those same household names are ever so happy to cast the battle as a war between conspiracy nuts and the sober-minded adults, completely gliding over the obvious indictment here of the very high society of which they are a part.
What the Epstein case shows is that powerful men preying on the very young is condoned by high society, whether they’re a Republican or Democrat, an American or an Afghan warlord. And that’s why prominent people, from the government to the news media, seem to want this to go away.
As for Trump’s law enforcers and self-styled truth tellers who claim to be ending an era of politicization of the FBI and intelligence? It is entirely possible that in all the material they possess, there is no information about the johns. That’s because decades ago, they weren’t told to go after the men, or they decided not to. Either way, that’s the true cover-up, that no one was predisposed to investigate the perpetrators beyond Epstein and his staff, not in the Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden or Trump administrations.’
Jeffrey Epstein Had 1,000+ Victims – Ken Klippenstein
Trump Gave Maduro A Last Friday Deadline To Step Down As Venezuelan President
Monday, Dec 01, 2025 – 09:03 PM
Update(2103ET): According to Reuters on Monday night, Maduro told Trump he was prepared to leave Venezuela in last week’s recently revealed phone call, but Trump rejected nearly all of his additional conditions – including a demand that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez lead a transitional government before new elections.
Reuters further reports that Trump gave Maduro a deadline of last Friday to depart the country, after which the American leader announced on Saturday that Venezuelan airspace was “closed.”
Things are beginning to move faster, as it looks like Trump plans some kind of significant military action against Caracas, at a moment such a huge Caribbean deployment, including the USS Ford Carrier group, is racking up high bills per day at the expense of the US taxpayer. According to a summary of the latest via Reuters:
- Trump rejected Maduro’s requests for amnesty, sanction removal, sources say
- Maduro’s safe passage offer expired, prompting US airspace closure, sources say
- Maduro proposed Delcy Rodriguez lead interim government before new elections, sources say
- Maduro’s administration seeks another call with Trump, sources say
* * *
A big Washington Post report issued Friday detailed allegations that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave an order to “kill everybody” aboard an alleged drug boat in September.
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a spoken directive,according to two people with direct knowledge of the operation,” the WaPo report reads. “The order was to kill everybody,” it quotes a Pentagon official as saying.
After that, “A missile screamed off the Trinidad coast, striking the vessel and igniting a blaze from bow to stern. For minutes, commanders watched the boat burning on a live drone feed. As the smoke cleared, they got a jolt: Two survivors were clinging to the smoldering wreck.“
From there, Hegseth’s ‘kill them all’ order was followed through with. “The Special Operations commander overseeing the Sept. 2 attack — the opening salvo in the Trump administration’s war on suspected drug traffickers in the Western Hemisphere — ordered a second strike to comply with Hegseth’s instructions, two people familiar with the matter said. The two men were blown apart in the water,” the Post wrote based on its sources.
President Trump on Sunday addressed the allegations, which the report present as tantamount to ‘unlawful orders’ and a war crime, as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend. Some Congressional leaders, mostly Democrats, have expressed outrage and vowed to look into the apparently standing orders.
Trump in his response declared that he has complete confidence in Hegseth in the top Pentagon post. While Trump said that he personally would have ordered a second strike on the boat, he explained, “I don’t know anything about it. He said he did not say that, and I believe him, 100 percent.”
“He said he didn’t do it. He said he never said that,” Trump emphasized when asked specifically about the second strike. “He said he didn’t do it, so I don’t have to make that decision.” According to more from Trump’s response:
“Number one, I don’t know that that happened,” Trump said, when asked whether a hypothetical second strike would be illegal. “And Pete said he did not want them — he didn’t even know what people were talking about. So, we’ll look at, we’ll look into it.”
“But no, I wouldn’t have wanted that, not a second strike,” he continued. “The first strike was very lethal, it was fine, and if there were two people around. But Pete said that didn’t happen. I have great confidence in him.”
A reporter asked the president if he was “saying there’s no second strike.” “I don’t know,” Trump responded. “I’m going to find out about it. But Pete said he did not order the death of those two men.”
Trump was asked “would you be OK if he did do it?”
This is after Hegseth late in the day Friday had blasted the “fake news” Washington Post report, calling the series of strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats “lawful”. If Hegseth and Trump as commander-in-chief were to actually say they gave an order to “kill everybody” – such an order could open them up to international legal action related to war crimes, as it would be tantamount to openly admitting to giving orders to pursue extrajudicial killings. This is also given that any survivors of an initial strike would not be a threat, and they would likely be unarmed.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1614 UP 0.0007 PTS OR 7 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MOSTLY RED
USA/ YEN 155.81 UP 0.259 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3210 UP .0002 OR 2 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3993 DOWN 0.0008 CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 16.79 PTS OR 0.42%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 42.97 PTS OR 0.17%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.13%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 42.97 PTS OR 0.17%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.29 POINTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.13 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 0.17 PTS OR 0.00%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4212.60
silver:$57.20
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.36 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.079 % UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.869% UP 1 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.389 UP 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.236 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.477 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7576 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1619 UP 0.0012 OR 12 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.06 UP 0.495 OR YEN IS down 50 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5030 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.277 UP 1 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0006 OR 6 BASIS pts to 1.3995
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0706 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0672
TURKISH LIRA: 42.42 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.869 UP 0 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.389 UP 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.112% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.763 UP 2 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.529 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4222.75
SILVER AT 10;00: 58.10
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 0.73 PTS OR 0.01%
GERMAN DAX: UP 22.35 pts or 0.28%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 22.39 pts or 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 84.10 pts or 0.51%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 95.35. or 0.22%
WTI Oil price 59.07 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.82 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 77.42 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 36/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.258 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.822 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1624 UP 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3211 Dup .0002 OR 02 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4710 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.245 DOWN 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.869 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.397 UP 1 1/ 4 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.81 UP 0.257 OR YEN DOWN 26 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3979 DOWN 0.0025 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 25 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.65
Brent OIL: 62.41
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.088
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 PTS to 4.743%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.512 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.248 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.810 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.28 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.44 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.50 UP 0 AND 22/100 roubles //
GOLD $4211.55 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 58.53 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 185.44 OR 0.37 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 213.01 PTS OR 0.84%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.44 UP 0.53 PTS OR 4.64%
GLD: $ 387.24 DOWN 2.51 PTS OR 0.44%
SLV/ $53.13 UP 0.61 PTS OR OR 1.16%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 61.60 PTS OR 0.20%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Crypto Crashes Up As Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar Chop
WRAP UP;
Markets chop on AI headlines and next Fed Chair bets – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 03:44 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar flat, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Trump to announce new Fed Chair in early 2026, refers to Hassett as a “potential”; Putin stands ready against Europe; Transneft reports indefinite halt in loadings from CPC’s second-point mooring; Mixed EZ inflation; AMZN launches new AI chip; OpenAI CEO declares code red
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Real GDP (Q3), Chinese RatingDog Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), Swiss CPI (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep). Events: NBP Policy Announcement. Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde, Lane; BoE’s Mann. Supply: Australia, UK. Earnings: Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree, Macy’s, Inditex.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks closed the day in the green with outperformance in the Nasdaq, while Industrials, Tech and Communications outperformed. There were several developments on AI, with OpenAI declaring a “code red” for workers to shift focus to improve ChatGPT in the face of threats from other chatbots. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) announced its new AI chip, which some labelled as rushed but others labelled as a threat to NVIDIA (NVDA). The Amazon AI chip announcement led to downside in US equities, but that later reversed. Aside from AI, focus was on the potential next Fed Chair. US President Trump announced he would name Powell’s successor in early 2026, which led to a brief Dollar strength and a flattening of the Treasury curve as participants speculated whether Hassett is still the front-runner. However, Trump later announced he had narrowed his choice down to one, and then introduced Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair, which in turn saw the Dollar move to lows while the curve steepened again. Meanwhile, oil prices settled in the red with focus on the US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner meeting with Russian President Putin, although no progress has been reported on, but the US officials are set to travel to Europe afterwards to speak with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Elsewhere in FX, the Yen gave up some of its gains on Monday and underperformed while equities advanced and AUD outperformed, in part to the risk tone, but also as ANZ removed its call for the RBA to cut rates in H1 26. Gold and silver prices diverged, with Gold sold and trading either side of USD 4,200/oz, while silver caught another bid.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 2 TICKS HIGHER AT 112-28+
T-notes bull steepen in quiet trade, but Trump pushes back Fed Chair announcement to early 2026. At settlement, 2-year -2.9bps at 3.512%, 3-year -2.3bps at 3.530%, 5-year -1.6bps at 3.657%, 7-year -1.1bps at 3.853%, 10-year -1.0bps at 4.087%, 20-year -0.8bps at 4.703%, 30-year -0.4bps at 4.739%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -1.0bps at 2.737%, 3-year BEI -1.4bps at 2.409%, 5-year BEI -1.3bps at 2.227%, 10-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.222%, 30-year BEI -0.1bps at 2.208%.
THE DAY: T-notes saw two-way trade on Tuesday, with pressure seen once the US session was underway. There were not a lot of fresh macro drivers for the weakness, but seven IG issuers hit the market today, and the move largely pared thereafter. From a yield perspective, the 10-year yield rose above 4.10% to peak at 4.116%, with yields not staying above 4.10% for long. With the Fed in blackout period, focus is on data this week with the September PCE report due Friday. Meanwhile, US President Trump said he would announce the new Fed Chair in early 2026. This led to some slight flattening of the yield curve, given that he was expected to announce it before Christmas, potentially suggesting that there could be another contender. However, he later reiterated his comment from the weekend that they have it narrowed down to one member and referred to Hassett as a potential Fed Chair. Kalshi prediction markets saw the probability of Hassett as Fed Chair fall from 82% to 66% on Trump’s first comment, but it moved back up to 76% after his later comment. T-notes did see some upside in the wake of the Amazon (AMZN) AI chip announcement, which led to brief selling in US indices as AI stocks took a hit, even Amazon (AMZN). However, the move in equities did pare from extremes.
SUPPLY:
Bills
- US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.700%, B/C 3.15x
- US to sell USD 80bln 8-week bills (prev. 90bln) on December 4th
- US to sell USD 90bln 4-week bills (prev. 100bln) on December 4th
- US to sell USD 69bln 17-week bills (unch) on December 3rd; all to settle on December 9th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 21.2bps (prev. 23bps), January 29.48bps (prev. 30bps), March 36.6bps (prev. 36bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 5.62bln (prev. 3.24bln) across 11 counterparties (prev. 9)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD (prev. 26bln) across two operations
- EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 85bln (prev. 90bln) on December 1st.
- SOFR at 4.12% (prev. 4.12%), volumes at USD 3.454tln (prev. 3.361tln) on December 1st.
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED USD 0.68 LOWER AT 58.64/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 0.72 LOWER AT USD 62.45/BBL
Crude prices moved lower as participants await the readout from the US-Russia meeting in Moscow. The complex over the session was subject to downside pressure despite a lack of market-moving headlines. Before the meeting, we heard from Russian President Putin, who pushed back on Europe, noting the unacceptable EU demands and that if they want to fight a war, “we are ready now”. WTI and Brent hit lows of 58.28/bbl and 61.81/bbl, respectively, before a sharp rebound around the US cash open, to then approach lows again into settlement. Energy updates included Russia’s Transneft reporting an indefinite halt in loadings from CPC’s second-point mooring following Ukraine attacks in recent days. After the close, private inventory metrics are due, whereby current expectations are (bbls): Crude -0.8mln, Distillate +0.7mln, Gasoline +1.5mln.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.25% at 6,829, NDX +0.84% at 25,556, DJI +0.39% at 47,474, RUT -0.17% at 2,465
SECTORS: Energy -1.28%, Materials -0.83%, Utilities -0.72%, Health -0.58%, Consumer Staples -0.40%, Real Estate -0.20%, Financials -0.05%, Consumer Discretionary -0.01%, Communication Services +0.37%, Technology +0.84%, Industrials +0.87%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.17% at 5,793, Dax 40 +1.22% at 24,381, FTSE 100 +0.12% at 9,911, CAC 40 +1.04% at 8,241, FTSE MIB +0.80% at 44,793, IBEX 35 +1.39% at 16,616, PSI +1.21% at 8,294, SMI +0.80% at 12,803, AEX -0.21% at 969
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Marvell Tech (MRVL): In advanced talks to buy Celestial AI for over USD 5bln.
- MongoDB (MDB): Profit & revenue beat with strong guidance.
- Credo Technology (CRDO): Profit, revenue & guidance topped expectations.
- Signet Jewelers (SIG): Issued a disappointing outlook.
- Iren (IREN): To offer USD 2bln of convertible senior notes.
- XPO (XPO): Prelim Nov LTL metrics showed tonnage per day -5.4% Y/Y.
- Janux Therapeutics (JANX): Latest clinical data disappointed investors’ expectations.
- Teradyne (TER): Upgraded at Stifel to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.
- Solventum (SOLV): Upgraded at BITG to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
- OpenAI is reportedly developing an LLM named “Garlic” to challenge the success of Google’s (GOOGL) Gemini, via The Information.
- Amazon (AMZN) announced updates to AI models, saying new chips are more cost-effective than NVIDIA’s (NVDA); AWS launched its in-house-built Trainium3 AI chip that delivers over four times the computing performance of its predecessor while using 40% less energy. Announced it is already developing Trainium4, expected to deliver at least three times the performance of Trainium3 for standard AI workloads.
- US President Trump to hold White House meeting with auto executives on Wednesday to announce the rollback of vehicle fuel standards; Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) will be at the event.
FX
The Dollar Index was again little changed as the buck struggled to sustain a move in either direction. With no data or Fedspeak on the calendar, newsflow was generally absent, but remarks from the US President were in focus. Despite Trump announcing over the weekend that he knew who he’d pick for the Fed Chair Role, he now says he will announce it in early 2026 (was expected by year’s end). The move saw a blip of USD strength, perhaps on speculation that the extension of the announcement may mean the base-case view, that NEC Director Hassett (who holds dovish views) is to be the new Fed Chair, is not the clearest of paths that markets originally thought. However, Trump later reiterated that he has it narrowed down to one and even referred to Hassett as “potential Fed Chair” later on, which took the Dollar to lows. Nonetheless, consensus is for a third consecutive 25bps Fed rate cut in December, but only a ~20% chance of another in January.
AUD was firmer on Tuesday after ANZ removed its call for an RBA cut in H1 26, expecting the central bank to be on an “extended pause” through 2026. The move marks the latest firm to view the RBA’s policy cycle at a standstill. That said, Westpac continue to expect two cuts in 2026 (May and August). AUD/USD reached highs of 0.6570, with AUD/NZD modestly firmer at around 1.1440 at the time of writing.
In Europe, EZ inflation was mixed for November, having little impact on ECB rate expectations. Core was slightly cooler than expected, while the headline showed the opposite. Meanwhile, US officials met with Russian President Putin, aiming to bring an end to the war. While we still await readout from both sides, Putin spoke firmly on Europe, “if Europe wants to fight a war, we are ready now”. EUR/USD experienced a choppy trading day, currently flat at ~1.1620.
JPY pared strength seen on Monday in response to hawkishly perceived remarks from BoJ’s governor Ueda. Behind the reversal, fresh drivers were light as continued digestion of Ueda’s remarks has left the JPY outlook more unclear than price action had implied on Monday. USD/JPY trades around the middle of the 155.44-156.17 intraday range.
DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
The US Manufacturing Sector Wins While Net Zero Destroys Industry Elsewhere
Tuesday, Dec 02, 2025 – 08:05 AM
The US manufacturing sector clearly outperforms all its G7 peers, especially Germany, France, and the UK.
The main reason is that the United States never implemented the aggressive net zero emissions policy that has destroyed the industry by giving the reins of industrial policy to activists. In the latest S&P Global/HCOB PMI readings, the United States manufacturing sector is clearly expanding, while the UK is only slightly expanding, and Germany and France remain in contraction after years of decline.
The US also shows much stronger momentum in new orders and has better pricing power, margins, and investment plans than its European peers. Furthermore, the US has reduced CO₂ emissions and protected the environment without destroying its industrial fabric. According to the EIA, the United States has reduced its GHG/energy‑related CO₂ by 18% between 2010 and 2024, while the European Union is at a similar level, reducing emissions by 18–22%.
The latest flash S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stands at 51.9 for November 2025, marking the tenth expansion reading in the past eleven months. On the other hand, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI has fallen back to 48.4, while France remains below 50, signalling a contraction and indicating disastrous manufacturing performance in the past three years. The UK has only just edged back to 50.2, barely into growth after months of contraction. There is a clear structural difference: the US is in a continued, broad-based expansion phase, while the euro area’s industry remains stuck in stagnation, and the UK has stabilised after years of a negative trend.
New orders show the trend in a clear way. In the US survey, new orders are in positive territory, supporting output and employment. In Germany, new orders are falling again, with reports of a sharp decline in export demand and renewed drops in backlogs and jobs, and France’s manufacturers continue to report falling new business after more than three years of demand weakness, according to SP Global. The UK is seeing some modest improvement in domestic orders but still faces a drag from exports, whereas US factories benefit from a large internal market and reshoring‑related demand that is largely absent in the European Union.
If we analyse prices, the US manufacturing sector is in a much better position to defend its margins. The S&P Global US survey shows a moderate input cost increase, stable margins and no negative impact on demand. In Germany and France, the PMI reports describe a context where manufacturers face weaker pricing power, with output prices often under pressure and a fragile demand environment. It is undeniable that there is evidence of a profitability and cash‑flow advantage for US manufacturers.
European business surveys and experts frequently highlight that high energy prices, complicated regulations, and climate-related policies are hurting orders, investments, and pricing, while US producers benefit from lower energy costs and more flexible regulations. Thus, US manufacturers can maintain investment and job creation plans despite slower global growth, whereas most German, UK and French firms are trying to survive in an environment of rising regulatory and tax burdens, focusing on cost cuts and capacity control.
Europe’s approach to net zero has clearly damaged the competitiveness of its energy‑intensive industries. The combination of carbon pricing, a hidden tax with no discernible positive final impact, renewable‑support surcharges, increasing regulated costs in electricity bills, and increasingly stringent wrongly called environmental restrictions are raising operating expenses for manufacturers that already face higher baseline energy prices than their US counterparts. Germany’s chemical, metal, and glass sectors are often highlighted as examples of industries whose margins and investment plans have been damaged by expensive electricity and gas, aggravated by climate-related surcharges, and the rapid phase-out of nuclear and conventional generation.
In France, industrial firms have benefited from nuclear power and face lower energy costs than their German or UK competitors, but they still suffer from high network charges, environmental taxes, and regulatory uncertainty related to future climate policy, all of which weigh on long-term investment decisions. UK think tanks and strategy firms point out the same points, stressing that carbon prices, green levies, and planning barriers have made energy costs structurally higher than in the US, pushing some producers to relocate or scale back capacity. Across the three countries, leading business groups warn that accelerated decarbonisation timetables, combined with insufficient support for industrial transformation, have widened the gap in input costs, making some multinationals shift incremental investments to North America or other regions, according to PWC studies.
The net zero‑related burdens are direct causes of a weak PMI picture. When demand is weak and new orders are falling, as in Germany and France, higher regulatory and energy costs cannot be offset by higher selling prices, so firms respond by cutting investments, reducing capacity, and, in some cases, closing plants. In the UK, climate‑policy‑related costs and uncertainty add another layer of concern. The US has followed a tax-cut-driven approach to energy transition without destroying cheap alternatives, which helps PMI readings and explains stronger investment intentions than in Europe.
In the US, firms have announced ongoing investment increases related to reshoring, supply chain diversification and technology. In Germany and France, repeated references to prolonged downturns in new orders mean weaker investment plans, delays in large projects and a continued focus on efficiency rather than expansion.
US firms invest in capacity and drive productivity‑enhancing spending in digitalisation and robotics, supported by a combination of fiscal incentives, more competitive energy costs and a clearer policy environment for industrial decarbonisation, according to PWC.
The US manufacturing sector is “clearly winning” relative to Germany, France and the UK on all fronts: volume, pricing, technology, and future capacity. The US has focused its industrial policy in leaders of alternatives and proactive improvement, rather than giving all the power to ideologically motivated activists obsessed with regulation, limits, and taxes.
Unfortunately, nothing seems to be changing. Europe and the UK seemed to be handing the future of industry, automation and manufacturing investment to China and other nations under a misguided view of environmental protection based on “not in my backyard”, while other countries grow and improve their environmental protection measures without abandoning key strategic sectors.
The US manufacturing sector is winning because its future was not left in the hands of PowerPoint activist politicians. This is a warning for Americans: if you copy Germany, France or the UK, you will face the stagnation and decline they are suffering.
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report December 2, 2025 Issue 7630 | Independent View of the News |
| Bitcoin plunged as much as 8.06% on Monday. Bitcoin hit a low of 83824.31 at 10:43 ET. The cryptocurrency tumble on Monday dragged Fangs and trading sardines sharply lower. This weighed on the general equity market. @infraa_: SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) now 12bps above the Fed’s upper bound. Third consecutive day above the Discount Window/SRF rate https://x.com/infraa_/status/1995479277916045589 The ‘natural rate of interest,’ or perhaps more appropriately the ‘equilibrium rate of interest,’ is higher than the Fed Funds Rate – and some Fed officials and the silly POTUS want to lower it substantially! November S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52.2, 51.9 expected and prior November US ISM Mfg. 48.2, 49 expected, 48.7 prior Price Paid: 58.5m 57.5 expected, 58 prior New Orders: 47.4, prior 49.4 Employment: 44.0, prior 46 US Factory Activity Shrinks by the Most in Four Months – BBG US factory activity shrank in November by the most in four months as orders weakened, indicating manufacturers are struggling to break free from an extended period of malaise… “Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to an unknown economic environment,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth.” Weak orders, slower production and declining backlogs help explain a third straight month of decreasing manufacturing employment… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-by-the-most-since-november/ar-AA1DZxfZ Despite the ugly US ISM for November, US bonds got hammered on Monday. Japan’s continuing bond market train wreck is a factor. USZs sank as much as 1 9/32. The US 10-year hit 4.092%. If the 10-year hit 4.2% or higher, look out! Perhaps Mr. Bond is very unhappy that the Fed will cut rates! Treasuries fall as new corporate debt follows Japan bond selloff Treasuries fell as US trading… with a surge of new corporate bond supply to begin the last month of the year. Yields rose to session highs during US morning — led by long-maturity tenors — after Merck & Co. slated an eight-part bond offering that includes 20-, 30- and 40-year tranches. Government bonds globally were already under pressure as Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to the highest level since 2008 on the prospect of a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike later this month… https://www.investmentnews.com/fixed-income/treasuries-fall-as-new-corporate-debt-follows-japan-bond-selloff/263315 AI Bond Deluge Pushes Some Investors to Seek Shelter in MBS – BBG Overall US investment-grade issuance will probably top $800 billion in 2026, stripping out refinancings, a net increase of about 54% from this year… A chunk of those sales will come from tech companies investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure… Disney Seeks Energy Trader as Big Firms Try to Curb Power Costs – BBG The successful candidate will buy power on an hourly and daily basis, secure favorable pricing and help keep… tourism destinations reliable powered… Trend is particularly pronounced among major tech companies such as Meta… Microsoft… and Alphabet, which are racing to secure enough electricity to meet soaring demand driven by their rapidly expanding AI operations… A HUGE downside to massive AI data centers and crypto mining is their monstrous electricity use, which drives electricity costs (inflation) higher, and strains the US’s decrepit power grid. ESZs traded a tad higher during the first 25 minutes of Nikkei trading. After 20:28 ET, ESZs commenced an intractable decline that took ESZs to a daily low of 6802.00 at 0:35 ET. ESZs rallied to 6829.50 at 4:05 ET. After a long retrenchment to 6805.00 at 7:06 ET, the inculcated rally for the NYSE opening began. ESZs ran to 6844.25 at 9:55 ET. The pro dump pushed ESZs down to 6813.75 at 10:34 ET. The second hour reversal plus buying for the expected late rally on start of December buying near or at the NYSE close lifted ESZs to 6850.75 at 12:07 ET. Yes, Virgina, despite the bond market carnage, the usual suspects eagerly bought stocks, particularly trading sardines, due to classical conditioning. Because ‘stocks always get it last,’ stocks are subject to frightening declines when a critical mass ‘gets it.’ ESZs relentlessly marched higher, hitting 6855.75 at 13:52 ET. Aggressive selling appeared; ESZs sank to 6823.75 at 14:33 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs traded in a small range until they broke lower at 15:51 ET. ESZs fell to 6819.25 at 15:57 ET; the late manipulation pushed them to 6829.50 at 16:00 ET. Fed Flags Potential Risks Tied to Office Space, Capital Planning – BBG Federal Reserve bank supervisions are monitoring community and regional banks’ commercial real estate portfolios amid concerns over “elevated interest rates, tighter underwriting standards, and lower commercial property values,” the agency said…. Black Friday shoppers are relying on Buy Now, Pay Later plans. Here’s how that could backfire Between November 1 and December 31, Adobe estimates that American shoppers will spend more than $20 billion online through BNPL plans, an 11% increase from 2024. “This is roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend,” the company said. ” BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone and cross $1 billion ($1.04 billion, up 5% YoY).”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-friday-shoppers-relying-buy-050805133.html Northeast set to be blasted by ‘most extreme cold on Earth’ before Christmas https://trib.al/skHrwSX Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied sharply on the valuation rotation. Fangs recovered robust from early carnage. Negative aspects of previous session Commodities rallied sharply; oil and gasoline soared. Natural gas hit a 3-year high on above cold front. Spot silver hit $59! Bonds got hammered; crypto got eviscerated. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are commodities and Mr. Bond issuing an inflation warning to the Fed? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6818.75 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6843.65; 6799.94 Recent college grads are losing their edge in the job market, study shows The Cleveland Fed economists found that the unemployment gap has continually declined since the 2008 financial crisis and recently reached its lowest level since the late 1970s. They also found that the decline has been accompanied by a decline in the job-finding rate – the fraction of the unemployed who find a job on a monthly basis – for young college graduates starting around 2000… However, high school graduates remain at a disadvantage compared with their college graduate peers in terms of job retention and compensation… The Cleveland Fed economists noted that if these trends continue, they could upend the way young Americans view the value of investing in a college degree… https://www.aol.com/finance/recent-college-grads-losing-edge-180738580.html @AndrewKolvet: Dem Sen. Mark Kelly is now basically threatening servicemembers to defy President Trump’s orders, or else face potential prosecutions when Democrats are back in power. This is seeding the ground for a Third World style military seizure of civil authority. https://x.com/AndrewKolvet/status/1995501072614617372 Office of Congressman Abe Hamadeh @RepAbeHamadeh: The reason Democrats refuse to name what they consider to be illegal orders by President Trump is that they want our military and intelligence community to question EVERY order they receive from this administration. The ambiguity 𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕. They want to make our active-duty personnel hesitate to execute the agenda voted for by the American people, paralyzing these men and women with the threat of future punishment. Dems have spent the past few years trying to delegitimize the SCOTUS and Trump. Now, they are opening calling for a military coup. How come so few people realize or are alarmed by the implications of what Dems have been doing? @WarlordDilley: My guess is that whatever else Mark Kelly is involved with is far worse than violating the USMCJ, so he’s going all out trying to compel a military coup. Team Trump is investigating and prosecuting the Deep State. Perhaps the Deep State, fighting for its survival and trying to avoid jail, will do whatever is necessary. Also, if reports are correct and Team Trump has the evidence that the 2020 Election was rigged and they halted another rig in 2024, ‘they’ must do what is necessary to avoid what reporting is coming. NB: Trump has voided ALL Biden’s autopen orders. Obviously, this act will now be adjudicated by the SCOTUS. The consequences of voiding some, most, or all of Biden’s autopen orders is enormous! Is Mark Kelly leading the Trump Mutiny to procure the Dem POTUS nomination in 2028? (Apple AI chief) John Giannandrea to retire from Apple (Apple’s AI operation has had issues.) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251201260097/en/John-Giannandrea-to-retire-from-Apple Today – Traders want to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. Bitcoin and Japanese bonds should continue to be a factor. The S&P 500 Index low on Monday was 6799.94, which is now key support. ESZs are +3.50; NQZs are +36.50; Dec AU is -38.70; and USZs are +3/32 at 20:10 ET. Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 51.9; Nov ISM Mfg. 49, Prices Paid 57.5 S&P Index 50-day MA: 6728; 100-day MA: 6575; 150-day MA: 6366; 200-day MA: 6180 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,773; 100-day MA: 45,865; 150-day MA: 44,756; 200-day MA: 43,963 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6812.63 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6647.57 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6842.225 triggers a buy signal Experts say top FDA official’s claim that Covid vaccines caused kids’ deaths requires more evidence- Vinay Prasad ties 10 deaths to the shots, calls for stricter vaccine regulation, in leaked memo The Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator asserted in an email to staff sent Friday that the Covid-19 vaccine caused at least 10 deaths in children and called for changes to the way the agency regulates vaccines…“This is a profound revelation,” Prasad wrote in the memo… https://www.statnews.com/2025/11/29/covid-vaccine-deaths-fda-memo-vinay-prasad/ @AlexBerenson: I am going to keep screaming this until someone hears: A CHILD DIED IN MODERNA’S OWN CLINICAL TRIAL OF ITS MRNA COVID JAB, AND THE COMPANY HID THE DEATH FROM THE PUBLIC… https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1995150582492107255?s=02 Damning report labels FBI ‘rudderless ship’ under Kash Patel — with him and Dan Bongino more concerned with building ‘personal résumés’ A troubling new report card on the first six months of Patel’s leadership concludes he is “in over his head” and his deputy, Dan Bongino, is “something of a clown,” according to the alliance, which in two previous reports warned about crippling DEI and politicization of the FBI during the Biden administration… Both he and Bongino were criticized for “arrogance” and an “unfortunate obsession with social media.”… There is good news for Patel in the report card. The rollback of DEI policies under him is welcomed by multiple sources who say it has reduced the “administrative burden.”… https://nypost.com/2025/11/30/opinion/damning-report-labels-fbi-rudderless-ship-under-kash-patel-with-he-and-dan-bongino-more-concerned-with-building-personal-resumes/ Minnesota Department of Human Service Employees @Minnesota_DHS: Tim Walz is 100% responsible for massive fraud in Minnesota. We let Tim Walz know of fraud early on, hoping for a partnership in stopping fraud but no, we got the opposite response. Tim Walz systematically retaliated against whistleblowers using monitoring, threats, repression, and did his best to discredit fraud reports. Instead of partnership, we got the full weight of retaliation by Tim Walz, certain DFL members and an indifferent mainstream media. It’s scary, isolating and left us wondering who we can turn to. In addition to retaliating against whistleblower, Tim Walz disempowered the Office of the Legislative Auditor, allowing agencies to disregard their audit findings and guidance. Media and politicians supporting Tim Walz or the DFL-agenda attacked whistleblowers who were trying to raise red flags on fraudulent activities… As staff, we firsthand witnessed and observed fraud happening yet we were shutdown, reassigned and told to keep quiet. Sometimes more… Fundamentally, Tim Walz is dishonest, lacks ethics and integrity, has poor leadership abilities, and has never taken any accountability for his role in fraud. Instead, Tim Walz deflects by blaming national politics for his own failings and distracts the public with inveterate lying… Thank You NY Times for bringing the plight of Minnesota to the national stage. https://x.com/Minnesota_DHS/status/1994993895428461006 NYT: How Fraud Swamped Minnesota’s Social Services System on Tim Walz’s Watch Prosecutors say members of the Somali diaspora, a group with growing political power, were largely responsible. President Trump has drawn national attention to the scandal amid his crackdown on immigration. The fraud scandal that rattled Minnesota was staggering in its scale and brazenness… Outrage has swelled among Minnesotans, and fraud has turned into a potent political issue in a competitive campaign season. Gov. Tim Walz and fellow Democrats are being asked to explain how so much money was stolen on their watch… The episode has raised broader questions for some residents about the sustainability of Minnesota’s Scandinavian-modeled system of robust safety net programs bankrolled by high taxes. That system helped create an environment that drew immigrants to the state over many decades, including tens of thousands of Somali refugees after their country descended into civil war in the 1990s… https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/us/fraud-minnesota-somali.html @bungarsargon: A group of Minnesota Somalis stealing tens of millions of dollars from American taxpayers told Minnesota’s Dept. of Ed to pay up for their fake charity or they would call them racist in the media—and it worked. This whole story is utterly repulsive from start to finish. https://x.com/bungarsargon/status/1995266087236272608 @MikeBenzCyber: So the Somalis threatened the local government agency they would call it racist if it didn’t give tens of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to their NGO scam, and the agency bent to the pressure afraid of being called racist if they didn’t fund fraud. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
