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XGE: COMEX
072 C GOLDMAN 6
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 185
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 74
104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 3
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 20
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 14
132 C SG AMERICAS 7
167 C MAREX 9
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 38
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 640
363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 3
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 39
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 207
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1641
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 11 428
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1 1
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 10
709 C BARCLAYS 9
730 C PTG DIVISION OF SGAS 1
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 14
880 H CITIGROUP 26
905 C ADM 15
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 428/1701
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 1701 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 170,100 OZ or 5.2908 TONNES
total notices so far: 26,163 contracts for 2,616,300 OR 81.373 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 565 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2.825 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 10,092 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 50.460 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.555 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 54.500 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOV: 9.045 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 0.555 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP // STANDING ADVANCES TO 54.500 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 3.256 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0.6524 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.696 TONNES/
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 86.696 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 27 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 632 CONTRACTS OI TO 150,200 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 30 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 30 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 632 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 30 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 602 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0,23 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.395 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.23
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS THURSDAY MORNING:
ASIA RESULTS; THURSDAY DEC 4
HANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.21 POINTS OR 0.06%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 175.17 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1163.74 PTS OR 2.33% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.14%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0717
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0666/ Oil UP TO 59.29 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 62.85 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0717 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0666:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4905 CONTRACTS TO 423,395 OI WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2310). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY (WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED ON NOV 30). .. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE MASSIVE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 1701 NOTICES FOR 170,100 OZ (5.2908 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ARE STANDING FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GOLD FOR DECEMBER DELIVERIES. YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI HAS STILL A VERY LOW AT 423,948 AND THESE GUYS ARE VERY STICKY AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TUESDAY SO THEY PROVIDE A LITTLE FODDER FOR OUR CROOKS TO RAID!!
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 7275 CONTRACTS (OR 22.62 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 6 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 11 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 11 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT. AND THUS THEIR SHORTFALL TO THE BIS IS 54 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7275 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A FAIR T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AS THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE ISSUANCES HAS ENDED. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 642 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THE 5 CONSECUTIVE MEGA HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES IN NOVEMBER WERE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON MONDAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 3.256 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF .6524 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.696 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 54+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 54 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRBNY IS QUITE NERVOUS, MAYBE I AM WRONG. WE MUST WAIT TO SEE THE DATA FROM BIS SWAPS FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO SEE IF THEY WILL BEGIN TO COVER!!
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2370 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2370 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /DEC 2370 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2370 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS EARLY IN COMEX SESSION + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1067 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..ENOUGH FODDER FOR A RAID//
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 5 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MASSIVE 3.256 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: .4524 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.696 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $14.25/ /)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRICE GAIN// COMEX TRADING//.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN STOIC//THEY REFUSED TO BE RINSED. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/ THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A HUGE 1047 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: .6524 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.696 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $14.25
WE HAD A FAIR 553 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
DEC 4
DEC CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 entries i) Out of Brinks 22,393.830oz 0.6984 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1701 notice(s) 170,100 OZ 5.2908 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1710 contracts 171,000 OZ 5.368 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 26,163 notices 2,616,300 0z 81.378 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 entries
customer withdrawals:
1 entries
i) Out of Malca; 11,960.172 oz
0.3729 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 1 all dealer to customer
a) Brinks 4540.545 oz
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 3411 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 953 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 94 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 1047 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 104700 OZ OR 3.256 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TO OUR PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS .THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES HUGELY TO 86.696 TONNES
JANUARY LOST 131 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2636
FEB LOST 2871 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 319,552 CONTRACTS
We had 1701 contracts filed for today representing 170,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and11 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1701 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 482 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (26,163 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 3411 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1701 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,787,300 OZ OR 86.696 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (26,163 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (3411 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (94)x 100 oz) which equals 2,787,300 OR 86.696 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 86.696 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 86.696 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 193,893 contracts fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,935,391.434 oz 60.19 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,247,560.642 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 17,861,818.060or 555.57 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 18,385,942.602OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 15,926,427oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
495.370 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
DEC 4 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) out of Brinks 600,200.130 ii) Out of Delaware 1964.800 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan 602,120,130 oz iv) //Out of Manfra 88,071,866 oz titak withdrawal 1,292,287.180 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Into CNT 599,136.731 oz ii) Into HSBC 1,192,309.100 total deposit 1,791,438.820 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 565 CONTRACT(S) ( 2.825 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1841 contracts (9.205 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 10,092 Contracts (50.460 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
please note: lack of any silver coming in or leaving the comex
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) out of Brinks 600,200.130
ii) Out of Delaware 1964.800 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan 602,120,130 oz
iv) //Out of Manfra 88,071,866
oz
titak withdrawal 1,292,287.180 oz
adjustments: 3//dealer to customer
a) HSBC 251,999.000
b) CNT 538,356.510 oz
c) Loomis: 353,152.500 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 138.328MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 457.220Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 1373 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 561 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 672 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 4 OF 111 CONTRACTS OR 0.555 MILLION OZ
JANUARY LOST 22 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 4001 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 130 CONTRACTS UP TO 1088 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 565 or 2.825 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 138,328 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,092 X5,000 oz = 50,460 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (1373) AND the number of notices served upon today (565 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (10,092) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(1373) minus number of notices served upon today (565)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 54.500 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 54.500million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 138.328. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 197.397/457.220million. 43.10%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1046.58 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 514.365 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
TETHER/GOLD
Why Tether Is Buying More Gold Than Many Central Banks, And What It Signals
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 10:30 AM
Authored by Dilip Kumar Patairya via CoinTelegraph.com,
- Tether purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a larger quarterly acquisition than any reporting central bank. Its total holdings reached 116 tons, placing it among the world’s top 30 gold holders.
- Stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds, corporations and tech firms are increasingly active in gold markets. This trend marks a structural shift in global demand once dominated by central banks.
- Central banks added 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey and Guatemala made notable additions despite record prices.
- While central banks buy gold for national monetary policy, Tether’s purchases come from profits and support diversification, resilience and collateralization for USDT.
The global financial system is witnessing a period when non-state entities are competing with central banks to build gold reserves. Tether, the issuer of Tether USDt – the largest stablecoin in the world – is now one of the largest buyers of gold. In a single quarter, the company purchased more gold than most central banks did in the same period.
This article explores how an enterprise moved ahead of central banks in purchasing gold for its reserves and discusses independent attestations of the purchase. It also examines the rise of non-state gold buyers and what Tether’s gold buying does not indicate.
A private company outpacing central banks in buying gold
During the third quarter of 2025, Tether added 26 metric tons of gold to its holdings. According to analysts at Jefferies, this made Tether the single-largest gold buyer in that quarter, larger than the combined purchases of all reporting central banks.
By the end of September 2025, Tether’s total reported gold holdings stood at about 116 tons. If ranked alongside countries on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) official gold reserves list, this would place Tether among the top 30 holders worldwide, ahead of nations such as Greece, Qatar and Australia.
Per analysis from the investment bank Jefferies, Tether’s 26-ton purchase in Q3 2025 exceeded the official gold purchases of many mid-sized central banks during the same period. This reflects a wider trend.
Large private players, including stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds and multinational corporations, are becoming significant participants in markets once dominated by governments. Research from the World Gold Council has also pointed to rising non-sovereign demand for gold.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said on X, “While the world continues to get darker, Tether will continue to invest part of its profits into safe assets like Bitcoin, Gold and Land.” The company has emphasized that these gold purchases are made from profits, not from customer reserves that back USDT. It holds that diversification into real assets strengthens long-term resilience.
Independent attestations: The verified gold breakdowns
Tether publishes quarterly independent attestations prepared by major accounting firms. These reports provide insight into the company’s reserves:
- As of Sept. 30, 2025, gold and precious metals represent about 7% of Tether’s total consolidated reserves.
- This figure includes both gold-backed USDT and gold allocated to Tether Gold, Tether’s tokenized gold product.
- XAUT has a market value of roughly $1.6 billion, which corresponds to less than 12 tons of gold.
- More than 100 tons of the reported gold is not tied to XAUT and forms part of Tether’s broader corporate reserves and investments.
How Tether compares with central banks
The WGC “Gold Demand Trends – Q3 2025” report shows that central banks globally added a net 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025. For context, this was 28% higher than the Q2 figure and 6% more than the five-year quarterly average.
In 2025, the price of gold rose about 50% year-to-date. Record-high prices likely constrained the scale of initial purchases. However, the renewed increase in central bank demand during the latest quarter indicates that these institutions are continuing to add gold strategically. They are doing so even in the face of significantly higher prices.
To help you compare Tether’s gold purchase in Q3 2025, here is information about similar activity by central banks:
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the most significant purchaser in the quarter, boosting its gold reserves by 18 tons to a total of 324 tons.
- The Central Bank of Brazil, making its first gold purchase since July 2021, reported a 15-ton rise in its gold reserves in September 2025, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons.
- The Central Bank of Turkey maintained its continuous gold accumulation, with its official central bank and Treasury gold reserves growing by seven tons in Q3 to 641 tons.
- The Bank of Guatemala increased its gold reserves by six tons during the quarter, a substantial 91% jump. The bank now holds a total of 13 tons of gold, accounting for 5% of its total reserves.
While making such comparisons, it is important to remember that central banks have different objectives when purchasing gold.
Central banks acquire gold as part of their national monetary strategy, whereas Tether holds gold as part of its corporate reserves. The acquired gold serves as collateral for its stablecoin and as an asset diversification tactic.
The rise of non-state gold buyers
Before the rise of non-state gold buyers like Tether, demand for gold was driven mainly by central banks, the jewelry sector and commodity investors. In recent years, however, a growing share of gold purchases has come from private institutions, sovereign wealth funds, stablecoin issuers and corporate treasuries.
This shift is being driven by geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in currency values. Stablecoin issuers, in particular, have become significant participants. They are acquiring gold in quantities once associated with medium-sized national central banks.
Major technology companies and investment funds are also adding gold to their portfolios as part of broader strategies.
The rapid expansion of non-state gold buyers makes them a noticeable part of overall gold demand. They now form a steadily growing segment that is reshaping the pattern of global gold demand.
What Tether’s gold buying does not indicate
To prevent any misunderstanding, it is important to be clear about what this gold accumulation does not mean:
- It does not indicate liquidity problems or a risk of insolvency. Independent attestations confirm the relationship between assets and liabilities. A private entity buying gold does not, on its own, indicate financial difficulty unless such concerns are disclosed by the entity.
- It does not signal upcoming gold price moves. Gold buying by a non-state actor does not imply any market forecast or directional view.
- It is not a monetary decision in the way central banks operate. Private companies manage their reserves under different objectives and rules, and their gold holdings serve corporate and operational purposes rather than national monetary policy.
This helps place Tether’s gold buying in its proper context and supports a better understanding of what the move represents.
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
Alasdair Macleod….
3.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer//GATA DISPATCHES
Goldman Warns Copper’s Parabolic Breakout Lacks Stability
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 07:45 AM
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange opened the week with a breakout to new record highs (see report). On Wednesday, we highlighted a Goldman note detailing the “circular melt-up” mechanics driving the move higher. By Thursday, a separate Goldman analyst was cautioning clients that the parabolic move above $11,000/ton is unlikely to last.
At 6:30 ET, LME copper futures hit a fresh record at $11,575/ton, driven by a scramble to move metal into the US warehouses ahead of potential Trump-era import tariffs and a burst of demand from Asia. The combination has intensified global tightening fears amid soaring AI data center buildouts and massive power grid upgrades.
The question now is how long this breakout into record territory can last, and whether the momentum will carry into 2026. To address that question, a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham published an overnight note titled “Copper: Our Favourite Industrial Metal.”
“For 2026, we hold a selective outlook for industrial metals. Copper is our ‘favourite’ industrial metal as constrained mine supply growth and structural demand growth from grid & power infrastructure move the market towards balanced in 2026, from oversupplied in 2025,” Waltham told clients.
She continued, “Additionally, higher ex-US premia and conversations with physical traders point to a larger-than-expected reacceleration of copper flows into the US in H1 2026 ahead of a potential tariff, which should further tighten the ex-US market. As a result, we lift our average H1 2026 LME copper price forecast to $10,710 (from $10,415).”
Waltham addressed the ongoing parabolic price surge on the LME this week with a clear note of caution for clients:
That said, we do not expect the market to enter a period of material tightness until the end of the decade. Already-stretched speculative length means that we do not expect the current breakout above $11,000 to be sustained (as was the case in October). Most of the recent price increase has been driven by expectations of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals (Exhibit 4).
The analyst noted:
While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160kt moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon.
Beyond Waltham’s view, super-bull Kostas Bintas of Mercuria recently told Bloomberg, “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”
Bintas warned, “Just looking at the facts, mathematically… what is going to happen if all of this continues? There’s only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price.”
Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures, a unit of a commodities hedge fund in Shanghai, said, “The rally has just started, we remain bullish on copper prices.”
The takeaway: LME copper futures look firmly pointed up and to the right for years to come, but the pace of the move is where some analysts’ views sharply diverge.
If you’ve been putting off those copper gutters or pipes for your next home-improvement project, you should lock them in sooner rather than later.
ZeroHedge Pro subs can read the full note in the usual place.
END
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.21 POINTS OR 0.06%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 175.17 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1163.74 PTS OR 2.33% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.14%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0717
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0666/ Oil UP TO 59.29 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 62.85 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0717 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0666:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0717
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0666
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 175.17 PTS OR 0.68%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1163.74 PTS OR 2.33%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.83 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1668 UP 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.941 // UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.52…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.392 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7550/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.455 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.228
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.392
3j Gold at $4206.20 Silver at: 57.57 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 59/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.01
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.82 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.941% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.392 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8003 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9339 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.080 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.741 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.502 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.45 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4300 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.172 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.226 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.779 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
Futures Rise, S&P Set For 8th Gain In 9 Days
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 08:50 AM
US equity futures rise, trading less than a percent away from a new record high amid signs of a leadership rotation with Big Tech not leading the bounce this time. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by about 0.1% after climbing in seven of the past eight sessions and extend on Wednesday’s gains when bad news was good news as a soft ADP jobs report bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. Challenger job cuts data for November showed job cuts fell 53% to 71,321 last month from October, but rose 24% from the 57,727 job cuts announced in the same month last year. Pre-market, Mag 7 were up a touch, led by TSLA (+0.9%), META (+0.6%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Salesforce is higher after its forecast beat and it gave a positive view on AI adoption. Bond yields were up modestly, USD unchanged, reversing an earlier drop to a one month low. Commodities are mixed: Oil and base metals are mostly higher; gold/silver are lagging. Bitcoin trades around $93, rebounding almost $10K from its low just days ago. Today’s calendar includes November Challenger jobs cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and September factory orders (10am)
In pre-market trading, tech stocks were broadly steady with all Magnificent Seven megacaps apart from Apple posting modest gains, while Salesforce climbed on signs that customers are embracing its artificial intelligence tools.
- Mag 7 stocks mostly higher (Tesla +0.6%, Nvidia +0.4%, Meta +0.8%, Alphabet +0.6%, Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple -0.04%)
- Axogen (AXGN) rises 5% after the provider of medical and surgical instruments said the FDA approved its biologics license application for its Avance nerve graft to treat peripheral nerve discontinuities.
- Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) gains 3% after activist investor Barington Capital Group has taken a stake in business payments firm.
- Costco falls (COST) 1.1% after the retailer reported total comparable sales for November that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Dollar General (DG) rises 4% after the company raised its full-year outlook, highlighting value-focused retailers are winning over consumers hunting for deals.
- Guidewire (GWRE) jumps 5% after the software company’s first-quarter results and second-quarter revenue forecast topped analysts’ expectations.
- Hormel (HRL) rises 6% after the protein producer’s 3Q adj. EPS forecast beat the company’s recently lowered guidance, as well as the Street consensus.
- MBX Biosciences (MBX) slips 3% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the drug developer with a sell rating, citing risk to the firm’s data readout in the near term.
- Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is up 1.9% after the software company gave an outlook for revenue in the current period that topped analysts’ estimates, suggesting it is persuading customers to buy its AI tools.
- Snowflake (SNOW) falls 8% after the software company issued a forecast for operating margin in the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Analysts noted a deceleration in product revenue growth.
- UiPath (PATH) rises 8% after the software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations. It also gave a forecast.
- UniQure (QURE) falls 13% after saying the FDA indicated that data from its Phase I/II studies of an investigational gene therapy for Huntington’s disease are unlikely to provide primary evidence to support a biologics license application submission.
- ZIM (ZIM) rises 3% after Globes reports that Hapag-Lloyd submitted a bid to purchase the shipping company, without saying where it got the information.
Fed rate-cut expectations have fueled a broad rebound after November’s slump, with investors turning to defensive and other sectors as worries over stretched tech valuations persist. The small-cap Russell 2000 index is now just shy of a record high, while the Nasdaq 100 remains about 2% below its peak.
“We’re expecting a broadening of the rally for sectors that have so far been lagging,” said Amelie Derambure, senior portfolio manager at Amundi SA in Paris. “The Russell is very sensitive to interest rates, so the figures reinforced the market’s idea that the Fed will be able to lower rates, in a non-recessionary context.”
A report on corporate job-cut announcements from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. added to evidence that the US labor market is softening. Announced layoffs fell last month after surging in October, but were still the highest for any November in three years, according to the outplacement firm. Meanwhile, YTD hiring plans are the lowest since 2010.
With official data still delayed, private indicators have increasingly pointed to employment coming under pressure from company belt-tightening and weaker spending. Worries about the jobs market and expectations that President Donald Trump will choose a Fed chair who shares his dovish stance have shifted market pricing toward as many as four rate cuts through 2026. Still, with the broader economy resilient, easier policy should continue to support stocks.
“Retail momentum stocks and crypto are still way below the recent peaks, though both have recovered from the recent lows,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “We see sentiment remaining positive into year-end.”
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is looking past this month’s decision to what it calls a “foggy” Fed rate path in 2026. Risks to its terminal-rate range are skewed to the downside amid labor-market weakness, the bank wrote. They still expect two rate cuts next year. JPMorgan strategists expect the market to be boosted by higher equity demand next year. They project a supply-demand “improvement” of around $700 billion in 2026, which would be the strongest year since 2023.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 is 0.3% higher with the DAX outperforming. Autos and industrial stocks are leading the way in Europe while utilities and healthcare dip. Automakers gain as Bank of America upgrades some stocks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- Mercedes, Renault gain as much as 4.4% and 4.8% respectively while holding company Porsche SE rises 5.7%, as Bank of America upgrades the stocks due to a more positive view on the European autos sector.
- Storytel gains as much as 6.5% after SEB initiated coverage of the Swedish audiobook and publishing house with a buy rating, saying the company has improved the quality of its subscriber base and its internal efficiency.
- Cosmo shares rise as much as 5.5%, adding to Wednesday’s 20% jump following positive late-stage trial results for the life science company’s experimental treatment for male hair loss.
- Balfour Beatty shares rise as much as 2.4% after the engineering and construction group said it expects to grow its order book by 20% in 2025 and confirmed more buybacks are on the way in 2026.
- Philips shares drop as much as 8.6% after Citi analysts noted tariff and China challenges for 2026.
- Trustpilot shares fall as much as 21% after Grizzly Research published a report on the consumer-review company.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a third straight day, led by gains in Japan as regional tech shares tracked their US peers higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.9%, with SoftBank Group and Keyence among the biggest contributors. Shares fluctuated in China and Hong Kong, while South Korean stocks slipped. India’s benchmark struggled to hold early gains even as the rupee strengthened against the dollar. Sentiment across the region is improving on rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month after the latest US jobs data. Meanwhile, a slightly weaker yen is providing an extra lift to Japanese exporters. Semiconductor shares are showing signs of weakness, with South Korea’s tech-heavy stock index slipping more than 1% as foreign funds take profit. A Microsoft Corp. update is also weighing on sentiment, after a media report that the firm lowered expectations for business customers buying on the cloud unit’s marketplace for artificial intelligence models and agents.
In FX, the dollar gives up earlier gains, Aussie outperforming on bets the central bank may pivot back to rate hikes.
In rates, global bonds weakened, driven by rising yields in Japan. Sentiment shifted as some senior government officials signaled they wouldn’t oppose a Bank of Japan rate hike this month. Treasury yields are rising across the curve. German bonds falling on growing government uncertainty. Gilts are outperforming after very weak construction activity data sparks a small increase in BOE rate-cut bets.
In commodities, oil prices are higher, albeit with some volatility. Brent is trading around $63/barrel. Gold is recovering ground and now trading close to $4,200/oz. Bitcoin, meanwhile, held above $93,000. The dollar was little changed.
US economic calendar includes November Challenger jobs cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and September factory orders (10am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini and Nasdaq 100 mini little-changed
- Russell 2000 mini steady
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
- DAX +0.8%
- CAC 40 +0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.08%
- VIX +0.1 points at 16.17
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1212.82
- euro little changed at $1.1668
- WTI crude +0.4% at $59.21/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Donald Trump’s aides are considering having Scott Bessent also head the National Economic Council if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, people familiar said. BBG
- Trump’s administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
- Trump said he may work out another trade deal with Canada and Mexico. BBG
- Vladimir Putin said Russia didn’t agree with some points of the US peace proposal for Ukraine, Tass reported, citing his interview with a local media outlet. Earlier, Trump called the meeting between Steve Witkoff and Putin “reasonably good” but next steps remain unclear. BBG
- Emmanuel Macron met Xi Jinping in Beijing and urged China to boost investments in France, as both sides look to rebalance their economic ties. BBG
- Cambricon plans to more than triple its production of AI chips to half a million units in 2026, people familiar said. The Beijing-based company aims to rival Huawei in China and fill a void left by Nvidia’s forced exit. BBG
- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday there was uncertainty on how far the central bank could raise interest rates due to the difficulty of estimating the country’s neutral rate of interest. RTRS
- The Indian rupee will regain some lost ground against the U.S. dollar over the next three months, but a reversal in the currency’s fortunes hinges upon India and the U.S. agreeing to a trade deal. RTRS
- Paramount more than doubled its breakup fee to $5 billion in its offer to acquire Warner Bros., signaling confidence it can clear regulatory hurdles. BBG
- Meta Platforms Inc. has been hit by a full-scale European Union antitrust investigation over how its AI features in WhatsApp may be harming competition, in the latest probe into Big Tech’s dominance on the continent. The bloc’s digital chief signaled she wants to conclude several ongoing investigations into tech giants this month including Elon Musk’s X. BBG
- For all the focus on ADP (historically very noisy), the Indeed Hiring Lab data actually picked back up in the last couple of weeks (need more data). Notable was the a re-acceleration in open jobs in construction (see below). What if AI adoption is slower or less transformative in the near term… the labor market re-accelerates… and inflation proves hotter in 2026? Not at all my base case but inversion an in important part of the process: Goldman
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
- US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
- Chinese Commerce Ministry, on rare earth export controls, said as long are export license applications are for civilian use, they will be approved.
- Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
- India’s Trade Minister said exports of autos, electronic goods, textiles and machinery to Russia are expected to increase. India also aims to expand and diversify exports to Russia to address the trade imbalances. India has secured a USD 2bln submarine deal, Bloomberg reported during the visit of Russian President Putin.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall St, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts. ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks. Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.
Top Asian News
- PBoC Governor Pan said in a People’s Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.
BOJ
- BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan’s government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- Key members of Japanese PM Takaichi’s government would not try to prevent a BoJ hike in December, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
- BoJ is carrying out an assessment of the level of neutral interest rate, according to Jiji.
- BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate, with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range, and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.
European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though morning news flow has been light. Markets expect Kevin Hassett to be named the next Fed Chair, with some concerns that he could be influenced by President Trump on rates. Meanwhile, Reuters and Bloomberg reported hawkish signals suggesting the BoJ is likely to raise rates in December with government approval. Sectors are mixed with a positive tilt: Autos, Industrial Goods & Services and Technology lead. At the bottom: Utilities, Basic Resources and Health Care.
Top European News
- BoE Decision Maker Panel Survey (Nov): Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%; Expected year-ahead wage growth rose slightly, by 0.1ppt to 3.8% in the three months to November
FX
- DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength after Reuters and Bloomberg reported the BoJ is likely to hike rates in December with government approval. Money markets were already pricing a 66% chance of a hike following Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks. USD/JPY slipped from 155.54 to a 154.77 low, with next support at the 1 December trough of 154.66.
- AUD is firmer amid continued hawkish repricing of RBA expectations.
- G10 FX is otherwise mostly flat and taking its cue from the USD, with few fresh drivers. EUR and GBP were little moved by Construction PMI releases.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)
- Chinese State-owned banks reportedly bought USD on the onshore spot market this week in a bid to rein in CNY strength, according to Reuters sources.
- RBI to tolerate a weaker rupee as dollar inflows diminish, according to Reuters sources.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning has unfolded.
- JGBs underperformed, falling as much as 42 ticks to a new contract low of 134.08. The move pushed the 20yr yield to its highest since June 1999 and the 30yr yield to a record high, with selling driven by reports that boosted December BoJ hike odds to above 65%.
- The bearish tone extended into USTs and Bunds (now trading the Mar’25 contract), which hit lows of 112-27 and 128.46, down eight and 16 ticks respectively. European newsflow was limited; French and Spanish supply saw no major reaction, with Spain’s auction strong and France’s slightly softer versus prior.
- For USTs, focus beyond the BoJ remains on the Fed Chair narrative. The FT noted bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury over Hassett’s potential appointment due to his perceived alignment with the President. Kalshi odds for Hassett have slipped to ~75% from above 80% earlier in the week.
- Spain sells EUR 2.88bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 2.70% 2030, 0.85% 2037 Bono and EUR 0.481mln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L.
- France sells EUR 5.06bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-5.5bln 4.75% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 4.50% 2041, 3.25% 2055 OAT.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.88x, average yield 4.813%.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks were firmer through the APAC session despite constructive comments from US and Russian officials after their recent Moscow meeting. Both benchmarks climbed to highs of USD 59.42/bbl (WTI) and USD 63.08/bbl (Brent) before easing to USD 59.11/bbl and USD 62.74/bbl as risk sentiment softened following the hawkish BoJ reports.
- XAU posts modest gains early in APAC, reaching USD 4,217/oz before sliding to USD 4,176/oz and remaining below USD 4.2k/oz. Despite a recent soft ADP print and mixed services PMI, gold has unwound its data-driven uptick as broader risk sentiment improves.
- 3M LME copper traded within a USD 11.43k–11.53k/t range in APAC before retreating from Wednesday’s all-time high of USD 11.54k/t, now at session lows around USD 11.35k/t. The pullback follows Rio Tinto’s raised 2025 copper production guidance and Goldman Sachs’ scepticism over the recent rally.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.
- Iraq has decided to freeze the money of “terrorists”, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, via the Official Gazette
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and “we’ll see what happens”, while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
- White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.
- Russian President Putin said the meeting with US’ Witkoff and Kushner was necessary and very useful, but it is “too early to say”; said Russia will take control of Donbas and Novorossiya by military means or otherwise.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the attacks on tankers in the Black Sea and CPC are aimed at disrupting the peace talks in Ukraine.
- A Ukrainian official has reportedly cautioned that Thursday’s meeting between Ukraine’s Umerov and US’ Witkoff is a “debrief” by the US and not “a negotiating session…”, FT reported.
Geopolitics: Other
- Venezuela’s President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.
- China is said to be gathering military ships across East Asia in a show of maritime force, according to Reuters sources
US Event Calendar
- 7:30 am: Nov Challenger Job Cuts YoY, est. 48%, prior 175.3%
- 8:30 am: Nov 29 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 216k
- 8:30 am: Nov 22 Continuing Claims, est. 1962.61k, prior 1960k
- 10:00 am: Sep Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 1.4%
- 10:00 am: Sep F Durable Goods Orders, prior 0.5%
- 10:00 am: Sep F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.6%
- 10:00 am: Sep F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%
- 10:00 am: Sep F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets continue to be in consolidation mode, with the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) both posting modest gains yesterday. The session had started on the back foot as the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed the biggest monthly drop since March 2023, but most assets recovered by the end of the session, as data cemented the view that the Fed would likely cut rates at next week’s meeting. So lots of assets were up by the close, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-2.3bps) down to 4.06%, whilst Bitcoin (+2.30%) reached a two-week high of $93,722 and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.91%. In Japan this morning a strong 30yr auction has led to a decent long-end rally even as other parts of the curve sell off.
In terms of that ADP report, the headline was that private payrolls fell by -32k in November, undershooting expectations for a +10k rise. The losses were largely concentrated around small businesses (-120k), which saw their largest decline in employment since the pandemic, although payrolls from medium (+51k) and large businesses (+39k) fared better. There were also some questions about regional distortions as the aggregate decline came due to outsized losses in regions along the Atlantic coast. Still, the negative signal from the ADP report received more attention than usual because of the data backlog from the shutdown. So we aren’t getting the usual payrolls this Friday, and the ADP is one of the final pieces of information the Fed will get on the labour market ahead of next week’s decision.
That dovish momentum from the ADP report then got a further boost from the ISM services print. The headline measure was a bit stronger than expected at 52.6 (vs. 52.0 expected), but crucially, the prices paid component fell to a 7-month low of 65.4 (vs. 68.0 expected), which eased concerns about tariff-driven inflation. That component has been strongly correlated to inflation with a lag, so the bigger-than-expected decline helped solidify expectations for a Fed rate cut. Moreover, the employment component remained in contractionary territory at 48.9, so again that echoed the weaker message from the ADP print.
Those prints helped US Treasuries to rally across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 3.49%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.3bps) fell to 4.06%. And in turn, that saw the dollar index (-0.49%) post its worst day in seven weeks and fall to its weakest level since October 28, the day before Fed Chair Powell said that a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion”. This morning, 2 and 10yr US yields are back up +2bps, nearly wiping out yesterday’s gains.
Meanwhile for equities, the S&P 500 (+0.30%) continued to move higher, closing less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October. However, there were some fluctuations over the session, and Microsoft (-2.50%) shares fell after tech news outlet The Information reported that Microsoft had lowered their AI software sales quota. That was pushed back on by a spokesperson for Microsoft, and the share price recovered a bit when CNBC reported they hadn’t lowered the quotas. However, Microsoft shares then sold off again into the close, reviving investor fears about AI valuations. Nevertheless, that wasn’t enough to knock the broader market. The Magnificent 7 (+0.12%) still rose on the day thanks to a +4.08% gain for Tesla. And it was a strong day for market breadth with two thirds of the S&P 500 stocks higher on the day and the small cap Russell 2000 rising +1.91%.
Over in Europe, it was also a data heavy day with the final PMI releases. Those were broadly positive, and the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised up to 52.8 (vs. flash 52.4), its highest level in two-and-a-half years. So that continues the positive momentum seen in the PMIs over recent months, and helped to bolster sentiment, with upward revisions in Germany, France and the UK for the composite PMI. In turn, that helped the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) to just about post a modest gain, although it was a pretty subdued day across the continent, with the FTSE 100 (-0.10%), the CAC 40 (+0.16%), and the DAX (-0.07%) all seeing little movement.
There was also little movement in European fixed income, with 10yr bund yields (-0.2bps) barely moving. However, we did hear from ECB Chief Economist Lane, who discussed how the ECB should react to medium-sized inflation shocks, and energy price shocks in particular. He argued that inflation risk wasn’t one-way and that the bank had recently seen some upside surprises, so his comments offered support for the view that rates are likely to be kept on hold through the energy-induced inflation undershoot in 2026.
On the geopolitical front, the perception was that the prospect of a breakthrough in the talks on Ukraine continued to ebb yesterday, with the Polymarket chances of a ceasefire by end-March falling back to just 22%, having been at 27% when we went to press yesterday. In turn, there was a reaction among assets more sensitive to the conflict, with the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index up +2.26%, whilst Brent crude oil prices (+0.35%) were up to $62.67/bbl.
In Asia, Japanese stocks are leading the way, with the Nikkei rising by +2.00% and the Topix increasing by +1.86%, both outperforming their regional counterparts. The ASX (+0.27%) is also higher, with the Hang Seng flat and the Shanghai Comp -0.20% lower. The KOSPI is the largest underperformer, down -0.71%. US futures are flat.
Early morning data revealed that Australia’s household spending significantly exceeded expectations in October, marking its largest increase since January 2024, thereby strengthening the argument for an interest rate hike next year. Spending rose by +1.3% from September, surpassing economists’ forecasts of a +0.6% increase. Year-on-year, consumption has increased by +5.6%, compared to the anticipated +4.6% rise. 2yr and 10yr Aussie yields are up +7.5bps and 6bps respectively.
In the bond markets, Japan’s 30-year bonds gained following an auction that attracted the highest demand since 2019, as elevated yields drew in investors. The yield on the 30-year bond decreased by -3bps to 3.39% after the bid-to-cover ratio surged to 4.04, up from 3.125 at the previous auction in November. This strong outcome for the 30-year auction followed a successful sale of 10-year debt earlier in the week, which also saw robust demand. However the rally at the long end today seems to have been funded from elsewhere in the curve with the 10yr yield +3.8bps higher this morning.
To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims, the November construction PMIs from the UK and Germany, and Eurozone retail sales for October. Central Bank spearers include the Fed’s Bowman, the ECB’s Kocher, Cipollone and Lane, and the BOE’s Mann. Notable earnings include Kroger, Dollar General and HPE.
1b European opening report
US equity futures lag European bourses; Yen outperforms following BoJ sources – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 05:59 AM
- European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though European news flow has been light.
- Central bank updates included hawkish BoJ sources alongside concerns about Hassett as Fed Chair.
- The BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December in a government-approved move, according to Reuters and Bloomberg sources.
- DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength
- Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning unfolded.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 29 Nov), Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods (Sep), Factory Orders (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fed’s Bowman. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.
SNAPSHOT
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
- US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
- Chinese Commerce Ministry, on rare earth export controls, said as long are export license applications are for civilian use, they will be approved.
- Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
- India’s Trade Minister said exports of autos, electronic goods, textiles and machinery to Russia are expected to increase. India also aims to expand and diversify exports to Russia to address the trade imbalances. India has secured a USD 2bln submarine deal, Bloomberg reported during the visit of Russian President Putin.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump’s aides and allies were reportedly discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the National Economic Council, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Trump’s administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
- The EU investigation into Meta’s (META) use of AI in WhatsApp could come on Thursday, according to Reuters sources.
- Palantir (PLTR) launched a chain reaction to build AI infrastructure in the US, with founding partners including CenterPoint Energy (CNP) and NVIDIA (NVDA).
BOJ
- BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan’s government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- Key members of Japanese PM Takaichi’s government would not try to prevent a BoJ hike in December, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
- BoJ is carrying out an assessment of the level of neutral interest rate, according to Jiji.
- BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate, with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range, and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though morning news flow has been light. Markets expect Kevin Hassett to be named the next Fed Chair, with some concerns that he could be influenced by President Trump on rates. Meanwhile, Reuters and Bloomberg reported hawkish signals suggesting the BoJ is likely to raise rates in December with government approval.
- Sectors are mixed with a positive tilt: Autos, Industrial Goods & Services and Technology lead. At the bottom: Utilities, Basic Resources and Health Care.
- US equity futures are marginally higher: ES (+0.1%), NQ (+0.1%), YM (+0.1%), while RTY is flat. Focus now shifts to US data—Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate—and comments from Fed’s Bowman.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strength after Reuters and Bloomberg reported the BoJ is likely to hike rates in December with government approval. Money markets were already pricing a 66% chance of a hike following Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks. USD/JPY slipped from 155.54 to a 154.77 low, with next support at the 1 December trough of 154.66.
- AUD is firmer amid continued hawkish repricing of RBA expectations.
- G10 FX is otherwise mostly flat and taking its cue from the USD, with few fresh drivers. EUR and GBP were little moved by Construction PMI releases.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)
- Chinese State-owned banks reportedly bought USD on the onshore spot market this week in a bid to rein in CNY strength, according to Reuters sources.
- RBI to tolerate a weaker rupee as dollar inflows diminish, according to Reuters sources.
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Fixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning has unfolded.
- JGBs underperformed, falling as much as 42 ticks to a new contract low of 134.08. The move pushed the 20yr yield to its highest since June 1999 and the 30yr yield to a record high, with selling driven by reports that boosted December BoJ hike odds to above 65%.
- The bearish tone extended into USTs and Bunds (now trading the Mar’25 contract), which hit lows of 112-27 and 128.46, down eight and 16 ticks respectively. European newsflow was limited; French and Spanish supply saw no major reaction, with Spain’s auction strong and France’s slightly softer versus prior.
- For USTs, focus beyond the BoJ remains on the Fed Chair narrative. The FT noted bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury over Hassett’s potential appointment due to his perceived alignment with the President. Kalshi odds for Hassett have slipped to ~75% from above 80% earlier in the week.
- Spain sells EUR 2.88bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 2.70% 2030, 0.85% 2037 Bono and EUR 0.481mln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L.
- France sells EUR 5.06bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-5.5bln 4.75% 2035, 0.50% 2040, 4.50% 2041, 3.25% 2055 OAT.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.88x, average yield 4.813%.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks were firmer through the APAC session despite constructive comments from US and Russian officials after their recent Moscow meeting. Both benchmarks climbed to highs of USD 59.42/bbl (WTI) and USD 63.08/bbl (Brent) before easing to USD 59.11/bbl and USD 62.74/bbl as risk sentiment softened following the hawkish BoJ reports.
- XAU posts modest gains early in APAC, reaching USD 4,217/oz before sliding to USD 4,176/oz and remaining below USD 4.2k/oz. Despite a recent soft ADP print and mixed services PMI, gold has unwound its data-driven uptick as broader risk sentiment improves.
- 3M LME copper traded within a USD 11.43k–11.53k/t range in APAC before retreating from Wednesday’s all-time high of USD 11.54k/t, now at session lows around USD 11.35k/t. The pullback follows Rio Tinto’s raised 2025 copper production guidance and Goldman Sachs’ scepticism over the recent rally.
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EZ Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 1.2%)
- EZ Retail Sales MM (Oct) 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%)
- EZ HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 45.4 (Prev. 44)
- German HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 45.2 (Prev. 42.8)
- French HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 43.6 (Prev. 39.8)
- Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Nov) 48.2 (Prev. 50.7)
- UK S&P Global PMI: Composite (Nov) 50.1 (Prev. 51.4)
- UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov) 39.4 (Prev. 44.1)
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.2)
- Swiss Unemployment Rate Adj (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)
- Swedish CPIF Excluding Energy Flash YY (Nov) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.80%)
- Swedish CPIF Flash YY (Nov) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.10%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE Decision Maker Panel Survey (Nov): Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%; Expected year-ahead wage growth rose slightly, by 0.1ppt to 3.8% in the three months to November
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.
- Iraq has decided to freeze the money of “terrorists”, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, via the Official Gazette
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and “we’ll see what happens”, while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
- White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.
- Russian President Putin said the meeting with US’ Witkoff and Kushner was necessary and very useful, but it is “too early to say”; said Russia will take control of Donbas and Novorossiya by military means or otherwise.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said the attacks on tankers in the Black Sea and CPC are aimed at disrupting the peace talks in Ukraine.
- A Ukrainian official has reportedly cautioned that Thursday’s meeting between Ukraine’s Umerov and US’ Witkoff is a “debrief” by the US and not “a negotiating session…”, FT reported.
OTHER
- Venezuela’s President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.
- China is said to be gathering military ships across East Asia in a show of maritime force, according to Reuters sources
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin resides in a narrow range under USD 94,000, whilst Ethereum trades on either side of USD 3,200.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall St, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts.
- ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks.
- Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC Governor Pan said in a People’s Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Balance on Goods (Oct) 4.4B vs. Exp. 4.2B (Prev. 3.9B)
- Australian Goods/Services Exports (Oct) 3.4% (Prev. 7.9%)
- Australian Goods/Services Imports (Oct) 2.0% (Prev. 1.1%)
- Australian Household Spending MM (Oct) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
- Australian Household Spending YY (Oct) 5.6% vs Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.1%)
GLOBAL
- Hapag Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO said global shipping demand could increase by 15-20% by 2030.
1 c) Asian opening report
European equities to open in the green; Choppy APAC trade following hawkish BoJ sources – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 02:05 AM
- The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
- US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and “we’ll see what happens”.
- Trump’s aides and allies were said to be discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the NEC, according to Bloomberg; Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT.
- USD/JPY pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources via Reuters suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods, Factory Orders, Atlanta Fed GDP, BoE DMP. Speakers include BoEʼs Mann, ECBʼs Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fedʼs Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & UK. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks trended higher throughout the session, although futures were initially knocked on reports in the Information that Microsoft (MSFT) is lowering AI software quotas as multiple sales teams failed to hit quotas for AI product sales last year, which hit MSFT and other AI names in the pre-market. However, stocks had started to pare before accelerating once MSFT denied the story and equities moved higher throughout the US session. The advances were led by the Russell 2000, while most sectors gained with outperformance in energy and financials, although tech and utilities closed in the red.
- SPX +0.30% at 6,850, NDX +0.20% at 25,607, DJI +0.86% at 47,883, RUT +1.91% at 2,512.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said they will either let the USMCA expire or maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.
- US halted plans to sanction the Chinese spy agency to maintain the trade truce, and the Trump administration will also not enact any major new export controls against China, while the Trump admin is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang said he met with US President Trump and discussed export controls generally in the meeting, while he supports export controls. Furthermore, Huang said they can’t degrade chips that they sell to China, and he does not know if China would accept H200 chips.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump proposed to drastically slash fuel economy requirements through 2031, with the US proposing to require 34.5mpg average fuel economy by 2031, down from 50.4mpg under Biden rules, while it was separately reported that President Trump said they will have a big percentage of the chip market very soon.
- US President Trump’s aides and allies were reportedly discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the National Economic Council, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Trump’s administration ordered an enhanced vetting of H-1B visa applicants, with new H-1B visa screening based on any involvement in censorship or free speech, according to the State Department memo.
- US Senate Democrats are expected to offer a three-year clean extension of Obamacare subsidies for next week’s health care vote in the Senate, which would align them with House Democrats who are pushing the same plan, according to sources cited by Punchbowl.
- Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT. Some market participants were worried the candidate for the top central bank job would be swayed by President Trump on interest rates and were worried that Hassett could agitate for indiscriminate rate cuts even if inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target, according to three people familiar with the conversations.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rose amid a weaker dollar and softer yield environment, but with some of the gains in the region capped amid a quiet calendar and lack of major fresh macro catalysts.
- ASX 200 edged higher in rangebound trade with strength in materials and resources offsetting the losses in the real estate and consumer sectors, while the mining industry was among the outperformers aside from the gold-related stocks.
- Nikkei 225 rallied above the 50k level as the tech-related momentum in Japan continued, despite higher yields and bets for a December BoJ rate hike.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid weakness in auto names and after another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while PBoC Governor Pan noted in an Op-Ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments.
- US equity futures paused overnight after climbing throughout most of the US trading session.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY found some mild respite after suffering yesterday amid the prospect of a more dovish Fed Chair in 2026 and following the mixed data releases in which ADP printed at a surprise contraction but ISM Services PMI beat on the headline, while there are more data releases scheduled ahead including US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators, Durable Goods and Factory Orders.
- EUR/USD was rangebound but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils after benefitting from the recent dollar weakness, while the latest comments from ECB officials did little to shift the dial, including Lagarde who stated growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending and a resilient, more inclusive labour market, as well as noted they are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- GBP/USD slightly eased back after outperforming yesterday amid strength in cyclical currencies and firm UK Services PMI.
- USD/JPY initially rebounded from a trough near the 155.00 level, with the recovery helped by the outperformance in Japan. The pair later pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.
- Antipodeans were contained amid a lack of tier-1 data and with headwinds in CNH after the PBoC set a weaker-than-expected yuan fix.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0733 vs exp. 7.0554 (Prev. 7.0754)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded subdued after recent oscillations, which coincided with mixed US data releases and expectations of a more dovish Fed Chair next year, while it was reported that some bond investors warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett for the top Fed job.
- Bund futures struggled for direction amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales data.
- 10yr JGB futures retreated amid increased bets of a BoJ December rate hike, with money markets pricing a 66% chance of a 25bps hike later this month, while the 20yr JGB yield rose to its highest since June 1999, and the 30yr JGB yield was at a record high. Some of the moves were then later pared with support seen in JGBs after a 30yr auction, although this was only brief, and JGBs then resumed their downward trend.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were kept afloat, although the upside was capped following yesterday’s choppy performance as remarks from US and Russian officials regarding their recent meeting were positive but suggested a lack of solid breakthrough, while US envoys are set to meet with Ukrainian representatives later today.
- Spot gold initially eked out mild gains with early support seen around the USD 4,200/oz level, but then faded the gains with price action rangebound after the prior day’s indecisive performance and as the dollar got some respite from the recent selling.
- Copper futures added on to yesterday’s spoils, which were facilitated by the constructive mood stateside, while Shanghai’s most active copper contract climbed to a record high.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin took a breather following its recent rebound and was stalled by resistance at the USD 94,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with French President Macron that China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries, while he added that China and France should uphold multilateralism and that China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France. Xi also commented that both countries should support each other on core interests and agreed to expand practical cooperation, as well as consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy. Furthermore, he said both countries aim to expand two-way investment and that China will expand domestic demand in the 15th five-year plan and will also expand market access and opening-up.
- PBoC Governor Pan said in a People’s Daily op-ed that China must maintain prudent monetary policy and should avoid excessive policy adjustments, while he also suggested preventing overreach from leading to long-term side effects of policies.
- BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that they can only estimate the neutral rate with a wide range thus far, while he added they cannot specify a terminal rate and are working on narrowing the estimate on the neutral interest rate with the findings to be disclosed if successful. Furthermore, he said for now, they have to work with the current estimate set in a fairly wide range and there is uncertainty on how far interest rates can eventually be raised.
- BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December, a decision Japan’s government will likely tolerate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Balance on Goods (Oct) 4.4B vs. Exp. 4.2B (Prev. 3.9B)
- Australian Goods/Services Exports (Oct) 3.4% (Prev. 7.9%)
- Australian Goods/Services Imports (Oct) 2.0% (Prev. 1.1%)
- Australian Household Spending MM (Oct) 1.3% vs Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
- Australian Household Spending YY (Oct) 5.6% vs Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM’s office said Lebanon’s ceasefire monitoring committee meeting saw agreement on formulating ideas to promote economic cooperation between Lebanon and Israel. Israel said it clarified that Hezbollah disarmament is obligatory, with no connection to promoting cooperation on economic issues, while parties agreed on holding a follow-up discussion.
- Israel identified the body of the hostage received from Gaza as Thai national Sontisek Rintalk and said the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains in Gaza.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and “we’ll see what happens”, while he added that Russian President Putin wants to end the war.
- White House official said the US and Russia had a thorough and productive meeting, while Witkoff and Kusher briefed Trump after the meeting with Putin on Tuesday and are to meet Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Thursday.
OTHER
- Venezuela’s President Maduro said he had a conversation with US President Trump about 10 days ago, while he added that steps are being taken towards a respectful dialogue between both countries.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Spain’s Economy Minister said they will only use about 25% of loans available from EU recovery funds, and that Spain has not seen any significant impact at a macro level from US tariffs, while Spain is confident that the EU-Mercosur trade deal can be signed by year-end.
b. JAPAN
JAPAN /CHINA
Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Seeks To Ease Deepening Row With China, Reaffirms Taiwan Status Quo
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 11:00 PM
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi finally appears to be backing down amid recent escalating punitive measures imposed on Tokyo by China in the areas of trade, diplomacy, and tourism. Beijing has been dialing up the pressure for weeks, after the new prime minister nearly a month ago told Japanese parliament an attack on Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army could pose a “survival-threatening situation” for which Tokyo would be justified in intervening militarily.
Feeling immense pressure and blowback from the provocative prior comments, Takaichi on Wednesday while again addressing parliament reverted back to providing clarity that Japan’s official position on the self-ruled island remains unchanged. “The Japanese government’s basic position regarding Taiwan remains as stated in the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique, and there has been no change to this position,” Takaichi said.
The historic 1972 communique spells out that “the government of the People’s Republic of China reiterates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China” before affirming that the Japanese government “fully understands and respects this stand.”
The communique further states that Japan “firmly maintains its stand under Article 8 of the Potsdam Declaration.” China also often cites the Cairo Declaration of November 1943 as having the legal status of a binding treaty. The Cairo Declaration requires that Japan return any territory seized from China during war. The two documents formed the basis of the 20th century post-war WW2 era normalization of ties between the two historic enemies and rivals.
Since last month, China’s Foreign Ministry has been insisting on a full retraction and apology from PM Takaichi over her ‘defend Taiwan’ remarks – which drew a sharp rebuke from ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. “Stop crossing the line and playing with fire, retract the wrongful remarks and deeds and honor its commitments to China with real action,” Ning said at the time.
On Monday ministry spokesperson Lin Jian repeated the demand, urging Japan to “learn the lessons of history, do soul searching, take seriously what it has heard from the Chinese side, simply retract the erroneous remarks as it should and take practical steps to honor its political commitments to China.” Takaichi’s fresh remarks recognizing the status quo on Taiwan, which was spurred by questions from lawmakers, could soften the crisis – yet Beijing is likely to still keep up the pressure given her words stopped short of a formal retraction and apology.
“President Xi is trying to stir up trouble wherever he can and intimidate countries like Japan,” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) told ZeroHedge on Wednesday, calling Japan an important US ally. He described that he views the US stance of Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan as “not necessarily a bad thing” because “we want President Xi to think not just once or not just twice but many times before he pulls the trigger which unfortunately I think is preparing to do.”
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) also responded on the question of allowing China to believe that it owns Taiwan. “We shouldn’t do that,” he told us. “Taiwan has a right to be independent, they are a free and independent nation, they should remain that way. Whether we given them security guarantees if a different question.”
“We should tell them ‘you don’t have any right to conquer them’. It plays into China’s hands to treat the Taiwanese as if they’re owned by China,” Hawley emphasized, declaring further that “we ought to be clear about it.“
China of course remains Japan’s biggest trading partner, and has already taken harsh retaliatory measures including the curbing of Japanese seafood imports, the cancellation of films and concerts – as well as cultural exchange programs, as well as the drastic move of urging Chinese citizens to avoid all travel to Japan.
In addition to Japan’s vital seafood industry being impacted, the restaurant scene is also feeling the fallout:
Diners once had to book weeks in advance to secure a table at Toya, a popular Japanese restaurant in Beijing.
But business has taken a sharp turn, with more than 60 reservations cancelled since mid-November, said owner Kazuyuki Tanioka, who has served omakase menus in the Chinese capital for over a decade.
And the film industry, per the same report:
The spat has also led to the postponement of Japanese film releases in China, the abrupt cancellation of concerts by Japanese musicians and the suspension of official exchanges.
A frequent traveller to Japan, Yan Jun, faced a dilemma when China advised its citizens to avoid visiting Japan. Chinese airlines proceeded to cut hundreds of Japan-bound flights this month.
China’s PLA Navy and Coast Guard have also increased their presence near Taiwan and in and near disputed islands and waters. The latest incident involving Japanese and Chinese vessels happened near a group of geopolitically sensitive islands in the East China Sea on Tuesday, as we documented previously.
Chinese state media is also meanwhile highlighting that Takaichi faces backlash from within Japan as well. “Several Japanese lawmakers and prominent scholars gathered Tuesday evening at the Members’ Office Building of the House of Councillors to urge Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to retract her recent erroneous remarks on Taiwan,” Xinhua writes Wednesday.
“The meeting was held under the theme of demanding Takaichi withdraw her remarks linking a ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan to the Taiwan question and return to the starting point of the normalization of Japan-China relations,” the report notes. If Takaichi does in the end back down, offering the requested retraction and apology, it will be seen in the region as a huge diplomatic ‘win’ for China after flexing considerable economic might.
Liam Cosgrove contributed to this report.
end
HEADLINE:
The Widowmaker Awakens: JGB Panic, Yen Surge, and a Global Deleveraging Trap
AI/
The Widowmaker Awakens: Decoding the JGB Panic, Yen Surge, and Global Deleveraging Trap
The phrase “Widowmaker” in trading circles refers to the brutal volatility of Japan’s government bond (JGB) market—a graveyard for speculators who bet against the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) iron-fisted control over yields for decades. But as of early December 2025, that control is fracturing. What started as a whisper of policy normalization has erupted into a full-throated roar: JGB yields spiking to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis, the yen clawing back strength against a wobbly dollar, and a cascade of forced selling rippling through global markets. This isn’t just a Japanese story—it’s the unraveling of the yen carry trade, the cheap-money engine that’s fueled asset bubbles from Wall Street to emerging markets since the 1990s. Buckle up; the deleveraging trap is snapping shut.The Spark: BoJ’s Hawkish Pivot and the JGB Yield ExplosionJapan’s bond market, the world’s third-largest at around $7.8 trillion, has been a zombie since the early 2000s—yields pinned near zero (and negative in real terms) by the BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) and endless quantitative easing. But inflation’s stubborn grip above 2.8% core CPI, coupled with wage growth at three-decade highs, forced the BoJ’s hand. On December 1, 2025, Governor Kazuo Ueda dropped hawkish hints tying rate decisions to “favorable economic conditions,” cementing bets on a December 19 policy hike to 0.75%—the highest since 2008.
markets.financialcontent.com
The 10-year JGB yield surged to 1.917%, the 2-year to over 1.02% (first breach since Lehman), and the 40-year to record highs—all signaling the end of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and NIRP (negative rates). cnbc.com +1Why the panic? Poor auction demand exposed the rot: Bid-to-cover ratios tanked to 2.45 for 2-year JGBs (weakest since COVID), as banks offloaded ¥2 trillion in duration risk onto a BoJ that’s tapering purchases by ¥400 billion quarterly. Life insurers slashed holdings by ¥1.35 trillion in Q1 alone, the steepest cut since 2017.
oanda.com
With 90% of JGBs held domestically but ¥1,350 trillion in national debt looming, this isn’t normalization—it’s a repricing of fiscal fragility. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus talk (likening Japan’s books to Greece’s) only fueled the fire, pushing super-long yields to extremes. forex.com +1
| Bond Maturity | Yield Peak (Dec 2025) | Last Comparable Level | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year JGB | 1.02% | 2008 (pre-Lehman) | Front-end hike pricing |
| 10-Year JGB | 1.917% | 2007 | YCC unwind expectations |
| 30-Year JGB | ~3.3% | Record high | Fiscal unease, QT taper |
| 40-Year JGB | Record spike | N/A | Insurer selling, hedging costs |
The Surge: Yen’s Revenge and Carry Trade CarnageFor years,
the yen was the global borrower’s dream: ultra-cheap funding at near-zero rates, flipped into higher-yielding assets abroad. Japanese investors funneled ¥11.7 trillion into overseas debt from Jan-Oct 2025 alone—outpacing all of 2024—via trust banks and the NISA tax-exempt program.
cnbc.com
But rising JGB yields flipped the script: Domestic bonds suddenly compete, prompting repatriation. The USD/JPY plunged 1.9% since April, with the yen strengthening 2.5% in 48 hours post-spike. ainvest.com +1 Unlike 2024’s chaotic unwind (Nikkei crash, VIX to 65), this is slower but structural—hedged flows turning reflexive as FX hedging costs bite. tradingview.com +1The carry trade unwind? It’s a $1-2 trillion beast. Hedge funds dumped $150 billion last month per CFTC data, triggering $400 billion in scrambles.
3. CHINA
China’s Real Estate Collapse Sends Local Debt To Record $18.9 Trillion
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Almost 20 years ago, when the Lehman/AIG collapse and the ensuing global financial crisis sent the world into a brief but acute depression, it was China’s massive debt-fueled growth dynamo that kick started the world economy and lifted the globe out of what would have been a lost decade – if not worse. The one trade off to this historic kickstart: China ended up doubling its total debt, which then continued growing at an exponential rate until the covid collapse sent China’s property sector – the biggest asset of its massive middle class – into a tailspin, and sparked a historic economic crisis. Only this time, because its total debt was already at 350% of GDP, Beijing no longer could wave a magic debt wand, inject a few trillions in credit, and make it all go away. Instead, the housing market has been in steady decline for the past 5 years and if anything, the decline has accelerated now that China’s Vanke – the last remaining state-backed property giant – is on the verge of collapse.
Unfortunately for China, which has done an admirable job of shoving all its economic woes under the rug while pretending it is growing at a immutable 5% year in and out, it’s about to get worse.
As Japan’s Nikkei reports, China’s local government debt continues to balloon as the prolonged, 5-year-long and counting, real estate slump has led to slumping income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high.
The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles (LGFV) that fund their projects now sits at an estimated 134 trillion yuan ($18.9 trillion), which suggests that total public debt to GDP is far above 200%… and rising (by comparison in the US it is 100%… and rising). Add another 200% in private sector debt, and you can see why China debt problem is even bigger than that of Japan. It’s also what, according to Rabobank’s Michael Every, underlines China’s structural necessity to maintain capital controls and a vast, neo-mercantilist trade surplus (i.e., China will continue dumping goods and exporting deflation as the alternative means game over).
And while China’s record low interest rates may cover up and put the problem off temporarily, it will also draw out deflation further, further depressing growth, leading to even more debt, and so on as the deflationary debt vortex expands.
“We’ve set aside 500 billion yuan for local governments,” said China’s Finance Ministry said in an October notice, explaining that it had approved additional debt expansion.
The funds are to be used to reduce local government debt and unpaid bills, as well as for investment projects.
“Right now, local governments are focusing on issuing bonds, placing them quickly and realizing their benefits as soon as possible,” said Li Dawei, who leads the ministry’s new debt management department.
Issuance of local government bonds this year totaled over 10 trillion yuan as of the end of last month. This exceeds the total for all of last year – 9.7 trillion yuan – and has already set a record for the largest amount in a single year. The outstanding balance of local government bonds has reached 54 trillion yuan.
Multiple factors are behind the increase. The biggest one is the drop in local government revenues resulting from the neverending real estate market slump. The value of property sold by local governments in January-October totaled just under 2.5 trillion yuan. In 2021, that value was over 8.7 trillion yuan for the full year.
“Over 10% of properties to be sold received no bids because there were no buyers,” said You Zipei, an analyst at Zhongtai International Securities. You says the market is adjusting further, and expects the total value of property sales for 2025 to be about 3 trillion yuan, a more than 5 trillion yuan decline from the peak.
Another reason local governments are issuing more bonds is hidden debt. Hidden debt refers to money raised through means such as corporate bonds issued by local government financing vehicles, or investment companies owned by local governments.
There is no precise data on the balances of these LGFV debts. The total of all debt with interest issued by roughly 4,000 LGFVs sat at 87 trillion yuan at the end of last year, according to Chinese data provider DZH. Adding this to the 47 trillion yuan in local government bonds brings the total to 134 trillion yuan, or just under $19 trillion.
The International Monetary Fund estimated LGFV debt in China at 65 trillion yuan in 2024. While there are a range of estimates, the general view is that local governments in China have between 60 trillion yuan and 80 trillion yuan in off balance-sheet debt.
A company can survive even with large debts as long as it is making money, but LGFVs have low profitability, with nearly 10% seeing losses. Only 3% of LGFVs have a return on equity over 4%.
Sure enough, while total net profit for LGFVs for the year ended December 2024 was around 550 billion yuan, they received double that, or more than 1 trillion yuan, in subsidies. In other words, without constant funding from Beijing, China’s regional economies would implode.
This means that nearly 50% of those LGFVs were in the red when subsidies are excluded. Considering the projects they fund are low profitability infrastructure projects, these entities will face a long road to paying down their debts.
In spite of their massive debts, LGFVs can continue to operate by banking on implicit guarantees from the government and low interest rates resulting from prolonged deflation. Meanwhile, the debt hole is only getting bigger: Xi Jinping’s government last fall approved the issuance of an additional 10 trillion yuan in local government bonds to transfer LGFV debt to local governments. The government has a strong desire to avoid a financial crisis brought on by LGFVs, or anyone else for that matter as economic collapse in the middle of a trade war with Trump would be catastrophic for Xi’s reputation.
The average yield on corporate bonds issued by LGFVs under the city of Beijing this year is 2.1%, down 1.4 percentage points from 2021. The drop is comparable to that seen for national government bonds. The finances of local governments are being supported by monetary easing on the part of the People’s Bank of China in an effort to prop up the sluggish economy.
While deflation does help kick the debt problem down the road, it also makes the issue ultimately harder – if not impossible absent a devastating crisis – to solve.
The Domar condition is one indicator for determining fiscal stability. The basic idea is that fiscal sustainability is unlikely to be compromised as long as the nominal rate of economic growth exceeds the nominal interest rate.
“With China’s nominal growth rate headed downward to the 3% range, and its nominal interest rate is just under 2%, the gap is closing,” said Yusuke Miura at think tank NLI Research Institute. And unless the PBOC pulls a Japan and unleashes Negative Rates thanks to massive QE, the countdown to China’s next mega crisis is on.
The majority of China’s government bonds are denominated in yuan. With the country’s large current account surplus, local government bonds are not likely to run out of buyers in the near future. Yet China’s government is well aware that its fiscal situation is getting worse. It has started refraining from making big outlays and there is a growing possibility that deflation due to slack demand will drag on.
80% Of Milan’s Predatory Crimes Are Committed By Foreigners, Police Chief Warns MPs As Olympics Looms
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Eighty percent of Milan’s predatory crimes are committed by foreigners, Police Commissioner Bruno Megale told a parliamentary inquiry on Wednesday, outlining what he described as the city’s most pressing public-order challenge.
Speaking before the commission on suburban issues, Megale said 830 arrests for predatory crimes, such as robbery, were made in the first nine months of 2025, with one in five involving minors. He described residents having “a widespread sense of insecurity,” but suggested that overall crime was down and arrests had increased so far this year.
Megale was speaking ahead of Milan’s hosting of the Winter Olympics, which begins in February.
“We’re heading towards the Olympics, an event that will draw international attention. All eyes will be on Milan, especially in the days leading up to the inaugurations, and so we’re paying very close attention, with careful monitoring and planning,” he told the inquiry, as cited by Milano Today.
The police commissioner announced that the northern Italian city will receive more than 2,000 additional law enforcement officers to reinforce security, particularly around key venues and public spaces.
Megale noted a concerning rise in youths committing offenses, including the “maranza” phenomenon, which involves youth gangs who embark on anti-social behavior that may not meet the threshold of criminality but still affects day-to-day lives.
“We’re somewhat concerned about the glorification of their activities through social media,” he added.
The remarks come as Milan once again ranked last in Italy for safety and justice, according to Il Sole 24 Ore’s latest national quality-of-life report. The city records nearly 7,000 crimes per 100,000 inhabitants — the highest rate in the country — and ranks 104th out of 107 for perceived insecurity, with over a third of families feeling unsafe in their own neighbourhoods. It is also second-to-worst for property damage.
Liberal mayor Beppe Sala has previously explained Milan’s poor performance in such surveys by suggesting that “citizens report crime more” often in the city compared to elsewhere, and therefore the statistics make the city look worse than it is.
Last November, Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi announced the deployment of 600 additional police officers to Milan, citing concerns over integration challenges and rising crime rates, particularly in areas with significant immigrant populations.
He noted that 65 percent of all crimes in the city are committed by foreign nationals, despite representing 20 percent of all residents, and suggested that “integration challenges must be addressed to reduce marginalization and its consequences.”
Sala, himself, said at the time, “I won’t claim Milan is a safe city, but it is making an effort to address challenges faced by all international cities.”
The city confirmed last week that it would not be holding its traditional New Year’s Eve celebration in Piazza Duomo this year, citing Olympics preparation and a lack of space as the reasons.
Critics, however, suggested that the city could not afford any bad press in the lead-up to the Games, following several years of high-profile sexual assaults during New Year’s celebrations.
END
FRANCE
A BIG BOZO!!
Macron Wants To Go Full “Ministry Of Truth” With Draconian Censorship Grab
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 04:15 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron is facing fierce pushback from conservative voices within France over his renewed drive to grant the state sweeping new censorship powers, Barron’s reports.
On Friday, Macron once again raised the alarm about so-called “disinformation” spreading on social media, insisting that parliament grant authorities the ability to immediately block content deemed “false information.” As if the existing arsenal of censorship tools weren’t enough, the left-wing president now wants to establish a “professional certification” system that would effectively create an official, state-approved class of media outlets—separating those that toe the government’s ethical line from those that refuse to do so.
France’s right-wing press has reacted with outrage, with Vincent Bolloré’s Journal du Dimanche denouncing Macron’s “totalitarian drift” on free speech and warning of “the temptation of a ministry of truth.”
Bolloré-owned CNews and Europe 1 were equally scathing, with popular presenter Pascal Praud accusing the president of acting out of personal resentment, declaring the initiative comes from a “president unhappy with his treatment by the media and who wants to impose a single narrative.”
National Rally leader Jordan Bardella also delivered a blistering rebuke, saying in a statement, “Tampering with freedom of expression is an authoritarian temptation, which corresponds to the solitude of a man… who has lost power and seeks to maintain it by controlling information.”
Bruno Retailleau, head of the Republicans in the Senate, echoed the warning on X: “[N]o government has the right to filter the media or dictate the truth.”
In an unusual move, the Élysée account fired back on social media, posting clips of Praud and other conservative commentators under the sarcastic headline “attention false information.”
At Wednesday’s cabinet meeting, Macron insisted no limitation on free speech was planned and explicitly ruled out any state-issued media label, Barron’s said. “As the president of the republic noted at the start of the cabinet meeting, there is not going to be a state label, and even less a ‘ministry of truth,’” Macron’s spokesperson claimed.
END
EU/ECB
ECB Slams European Commission Proposal To Guarantee €140 Billion Loan To Ukraine
The European Central Bank has refused to backstop a €140bn payment to Ukraine, dealing a blow to an EU plan to raise a “reparations loan” backed by frozen Russian assets, the FT reported.
AI:
ECB Rejects European Commission Proposal for €140 Billion Ukraine Loan Backed by Frozen Russian Assets
The European Central Bank (ECB) has firmly rejected a key element of the European Commission’s ambitious plan to provide Ukraine with a €140 billion ($163 billion) “reparations loan” secured by profits from frozen Russian central bank assets. This decision, first reported on December 2, 2025, represents a significant setback for Brussels’ efforts to leverage approximately €210 billion in immobilized Russian assets—primarily held at Belgium’s Euroclear depository—to fund Ukraine’s war-torn economy amid ongoing hostilities.Background on the ProposalThe European Commission’s scheme, floated in September 2025, aimed to channel extraordinary revenues from these frozen assets into a zero-interest credit line for Kyiv. Ukraine would only need to repay the loan if Russia agrees to compensate for war damages—a scenario deemed highly unlikely. To mitigate risks:
- EU member states would provide state guarantees to share repayment burdens.
- The ECB would act as a “lender of last resort,” offering emergency liquidity to Euroclear to prevent a potential financial crunch if asset values fluctuate or legal challenges arise.
This builds on a smaller G7 initiative from 2024, which used asset profits to deliver €50 billion in loans to Ukraine. However, scaling up to €140 billion introduces greater complexities, including legal hurdles under EU treaties prohibiting “monetary financing” (i.e., the central bank directly funding governments).ECB’s Stance and ReasoningECB officials concluded that the proposal violates their mandate, as it would effectively involve the bank in covering member states’ financial obligations—akin to indirect government financing. In a statement, the ECB emphasized: “Such a proposal is not under consideration as it would likely violate EU treaty law prohibiting monetary financing.”This internal analysis, shared with Commission officials since October 2025, underscores the ECB’s commitment to its independence and the bloc’s fiscal rules. The rejection exposes vulnerabilities in the plan, particularly around liquidity risks for Euroclear, where €185 billion of the assets are custodied.Broader Implications and Reactions
- EU Internal Pushback: Belgium, as Euroclear’s host, has been vocal in opposition. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo recently demanded “unlimited” guarantees from EU partners—exceeding €140 billion and outlasting sanctions—which diplomats described as exposing countries to “huge long-term financial risk.” Four EU governments have already balked at this, stalling talks ahead of a December EU summit.
- Alternative Paths: The Commission is now exploring workarounds, such as temporary liquidity mechanisms that avoid direct ECB involvement or issuing more EU bonds to cover Ukraine’s estimated $53 billion annual budget gap (2025–2028, excluding military aid). However, bond issuance remains politically toxic, as it would burden EU taxpayers.
- Geopolitical Tensions: The U.S. has subtly undermined the plan, with officials signaling support for returning Russian assets post-conflict to facilitate peace talks. This aligns with incoming President Donald Trump’s proposed $100 billion U.S.-administered package for Ukraine, potentially sidelining EU efforts. Russia has decried the scheme as “asset theft,” warning of retaliatory seizures of Western holdings.
- Public and Media Echoes: On X (formerly Twitter), the story has gained traction, with outlets like ZeroHedge amplifying the ECB’s “slam” on the proposal, garnering thousands of views and discussions on Europe’s funding fatigue. Independent voices highlight the plan’s “total breakdown,” linking it to broader U.S.-EU frictions.
Ukraine’s debt has surged to over $191 billion, making swift external support critical. Without resolution, Kyiv may face intensified fiscal pressures as the invasion enters its fourth year. The ECB’s veto forces a rethink, balancing moral imperatives for reparations against legal and financial realities—potentially delaying aid until 2026.
END
GERMANY
TROUBLE
German Army Launches Major Security Probe After 20,000 Rounds Stolen From Civilian Truck In Unsecured Parking Lot
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Approximately 20,000 rounds of Bundeswehr ammunition were stolen from a civilian transport truck after the driver parked overnight in an unsecured industrial-area lot near Burg, outside Magdeburg, the German defense ministry confirmed on Monday.
The incident, first reported by the platform Meetingpoint Jerichower Land and developed by Der Spiegel, has prompted a joint investigation by the Bundeswehr and local police amid concerns the theft was not random but carried out by perpetrators who may have been monitoring the vehicle.
According to the ministry, the driver — employed by a civilian company contracted to move ammunition for the armed forces — opted to stop for the night and reportedly checked into a hotel, leaving the cargo unattended. When he arrived at a nearby barracks the following morning, soldiers immediately noticed signs of tampering and reviewed the manifests.
An initial assessment found that approximately 10,000 live 9mm pistol rounds, 9,900 blank rifle cartridges, and several smoke grenades were missing in what officials described as a serious security breach.
“A particular danger comes from 9mm cartridges: This is the most widely used caliber worldwide for pistols and submachine guns. It is live, lethal ammunition,” Meetingpoint wrote.
“We are taking the incident very seriously and are thoroughly investigating the matter. We are supporting the investigating authorities in all further steps,” a spokesperson for the Bundeswehr’s support division told the site.
According to Der Spiegel, early findings suggest the transport company violated Bundeswehr safety protocols. Contracts require that ammunition transports be staffed with two drivers, ensuring one is continuously observing the vehicle during any stop. In this case, investigators say the unplanned overnight stop was not authorized and security rules were not followed.
Bundeswehr sources believe the theft was unlikely to be opportunistic. Instead, they fear the cargo may have been targeted, with the offenders waiting for the moment the vehicle was left unattended.
The police investigation is ongoing, and the ministry has not yet commented on whether organized crime or extremist groups are suspected.
The driver has not been publicly identified, and neither Germany’s federal defense ministry nor investigators have disclosed whether disciplinary or contractual measures will follow against the transport company.
END
EUROPEAN CAR MAKERS
Trump removes USA fuel limits and thus helps European car makers
(zerohedge)
European Carmakers Surge After Trump Rolls Back Fuel Rules
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 06:55 AM
European automaker shares rose sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump moved to roll back U.S. fuel economy limits established under Joe Biden, according to Reuters. The administration framed the proposal as a way to lower consumer costs by making it easier for companies to sell gasoline-powered vehicles.
By mid-morning, Porsche shares were up more than 5%, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo Car gained nearly 4%, Renault rose 3.3%, and Stellantis climbed around 2.7% after an 8% rally the previous day.
Speaking from the Oval Office alongside industry executives and lawmakers, Trump announced the reversal of the Biden-era rules, saying, “We’re officially terminating Joe Biden’s ridiculously burdensome, horrible, actually, CAFE standards that impose expensive restrictions and all sorts of problems — gave all sorts of problems to automakers. And we’re not only talking about here, we’re talking about outside of our country.”
He also said his administration would revoke California’s emission waivers, following a Senate vote earlier this year to overturn them. A White House official said the reset could save Americans up to $109 billion.
Reuters writes that automakers responded favorably. Ford CEO Jim Farley said the move aligns regulations with market conditions, adding, “We can make real progress on carbon emissions and energy efficiency while still giving customers choice and affordability.”
Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa said the company supports policies that are “environmentally responsible” but also allow consumers “the freedom to choose the vehicles they want at prices they can afford.” General Motors backed the idea of a single national standard and said it remains committed to offering both electric and gasoline-powered models.
Volvo Cars said it is too early to assess the effects of the regulatory shift. Although aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2040, the company has already announced plans to expand hybrid production in the United States, with new models scheduled as late as 2029.
Market analysts said the rollback had been widely anticipated. Martino De Ambroggi of Equita noted that the change should benefit the industry and pointed to reports that the European Union may loosen or revise its planned 2035 ban on combustion-engine car sales. Industry sources said this week that the European Commission could delay announcing its support package for the region’s carmakers.
The move is expected to intensify debate over whether weaker standards actually reduce costs for drivers. Consumer Reports found “no systemic, statistically significant increase” in inflation-adjusted vehicle prices from 2003 to 2021, while fuel economy improved 30% over the same period.
The organization estimated that consumers saved “$7,000 in per-vehicle lifetime fuel savings for model year 2021 vehicles compared with model year 2003.”
Environmental groups criticized the policy shift, arguing it will raise long-term fuel expenses and emissions. Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Safe Climate Transport Campaign, said, “In one stroke Trump is worsening three of our nation’s most vexing problems: the thirst for oil, high gas pump costs and global warming.” He said stronger standards are essential to U.S. competitiveness, warning that Trump’s action “will feed America’s destructive use of oil, while hamstringing us in the green tech race.”
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Sudthisak Rinthalak identified as deceased hostage returned to Israel, PMO confirms
The PMO noted that Rinthalak’s family, as well as the Thai ambassador to Israel, Boonyarit Vichienphan, expressed their appreciation for Israel’s efforts to return Rinthalak’s remains.
Sudthisak Rinthalak(photo credit: Hostages and Missing Families Forum)BySAM HALPERNDECEMBER 4, 2025 07:13Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2025 11:41
Sudthisak Rinthalak, a Thai citizen who was killed during the Hamas-led massacres in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, before his body was kidnapped and taken to Gaza, was identified as the deceased hostage returned to Israel on Wednesday, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the following morning.
The PMO added that Rinthalak’s family, as well as the Thai ambassador to Israel, Boonyarit Vichienphan, expressed their appreciation for Israel’s efforts to return Rinthalak’s remains.
Following Rinthalak’s return, only the remains of one hostage, Staff-Sergeant Major Ran Gvili, remain in Gaza captivity. The PMO noted that Israel would continue to work to return Gvili to Israel for burial.
“The Hamas terror organization is required to meet its commitments to the mediators and return him as part of the agreement’s implementation. Israel will not compromise on this and will spare no effort until he is brought home to Israel,” the office concluded.
Hamas obligated to return remains of all hostages
In its statement confirming Rinthalak’s identification, the IDF also noted that, as per the ceasefire agreement, Hamas is obligated to return the remains of all the hostages. Hamas was supposed to return all the hostages, both living and deceased, days after the agreement was signed in October.
The military also noted that, according to its knowledge, after being murdered and abducted to Gaza, Rinthalak, who worked in the orchards of Kibbutz Be’eri, was held by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group.
“The IDF expresses deep condolences to the families, continues to make every effort to return the remaining deceased hostage, and is prepared for the continued implementation of the agreement.”
President Isaac Herzog released a statement on X/Twitter following the announcement, “on behalf of the people of Israel.”
Herzog wrote that he extended his “deepest condolences to King Maha Vajiralongkorn of Thailand, Sudthisak Rinthalak’s family, and the entire Thai people.”
Herzog emphasized his appreciation for Israel’s Thai community, of which 39 were murdered, and 31 were taken hostage on October 7. He also expressed his gratitude for their continuous contributions to the country after the Hamas massacre.
“When we say we won’t stop until every last hostage is home, we mean it,” Herzog reaffirmed.
Previously, on Wednesday, PIJ said that it had located one of the remaining hostages in northern Gaza and turned over a coffin containing Rinthalak’s remains.
The IDF then escorted the remains to the National Institute of Forensic Medicine at Abu Kabir, where they were later identified.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS// ANTI-HAMAS FORCES
Abu Shabab, anti Hamas and militia chief in Gaza assassinated
(JerusalemPost)
Abu Shabab militia chief shot in Gaza gunfight, dies in Israeli hospital
Yasser Abu Shabab, head of a Gazan militia that had reportedly been collaborating with Israel, was rushed to an Israeli hospital after being shot in an internal clan scuffle.
Yasser Abu Shabab, head of the anti-Hamas Abu Shabab militia in Gaza(photo credit: SAEED MOHAMMED/FLASH90, Wikimedia Commons)ByGOLDIE KATZ, AMICHAI STEINDECEMBER 4, 2025 14:51Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2025 16:47
Yasser Abu Shabab, head of the anti-Hamas Abu Shabab militia, was killed by assassins in Gaza, Israeli sources confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
The self-proclaimed “Popular Forces” of the Gaza Strip, the Abu Shabab militia, had reportedly been collaborating with Israel on anti-Hamas efforts in southern Gaza.
Abu Shabab was killed in an internal clan scuffle, rather than by Hamas terrorists, a source confirmed.
According to the source, Abu Shabab was initially wounded and was evacuated to a southern Israel hospital, where he succumbed to his wounds.
Israeli media initially reported that Abu Shabab was evacuated to Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba. However, the Beersheba hospital later clarified that he had neither been evacuated to Soroka nor had he died there.
The details of the incident are still under investigation.
Abu Shabab, a Bedouin man in his 30s, led the Popular Forces, a crime group in Gaza that is significantly smaller than Hamas.
Senior UN official Georgios Petropoulos once called him “the self-styled power broker of east Rafah,” according to the report.
Abu Shabab was accused several times of looting aid trucks in the Gaza Strip by aid truck drivers and international humanitarian officials.
In an interview quoted in The New York Times, Abu Shabab said that he did not raid the trucks and instead asserted that he was feeding his community.
“We are taking trucks so we can eat, not so we can sell,” he said, accusing Hamas of stealing aid.
The Popular Forces also said that it had safeguarded aid trucks entering the enclave.
“We confirm that 92 trucks were secured and entered areas under the protection of our popular forces, and exited safely under our supervision,” a post from the criminal group reads.
Leader of anti-Hamas militia killed in Gaza
Israeli public broadcaster KAN News reported that videos on social media allegedly showed separate members of the Abu Shabab militia being killed by people yelling chants in favor of Hamas.
In recent months, Hamas’s military wing, the Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, claimed to have deterred the Abu Shabab militia.
In late October, the al-Qassam Brigades and Hamas’s official media agency SAFA, claimed that they arrested “a number of militia members and confiscated military equipment and tools” used by the militia.
The deterrence force also claims to have carried out similar raids against Abu Shabab’s militia several times in October, including on October 17, 15, 13, and 2, according to previous SAFA reports.
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
IRAN
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
“We Must Protect Volodymyr”: Leaked Call Shows European Leaders Conspiring Against Trump Peace Plan
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 10:45 AM
In a development that is not entirely surprising, European leaders are claiming that Washington is looking to “betray” Ukraine and President Zelensky during potential formal peace negotiations with Russia. “There is a possibility that the United States will abandon Ukraine on territorial questions without providing clarity on security guarantees,” French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly said according to a “leaked” phone call record with other European leaders.
Likely this was an intentional leak and bit of strong signaling to the Trump administration, as Europe has not been on board with the US President’s proposed peace plan from the start. “There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron continued. He laid his view that there was “a great danger” for Zelensky. However, Macron’s office has subsequently sought to clarify that “The president did not use those words.”
The leaked transcript of the call between European leaders strategizing about how to protect the Zelensky government and Kiev’s interests was published Thursday by the German magazine Der Spiegel.
Also reportedly on the line engaged in the conversation were German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and of course Zelensky as well.
Merz had in the dialogue agreed that Zelensky should be “extremely careful in the coming days” and warned the Ukrainian leader that “they are playing games with you and with us.”
Finland’s President Stubb followed with, “We must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these people” – after NATO Secretary General Rutte chimed in: “I agree with Alexander. We must protect Volodymyr.” The underlying assumption seems to be that Zelensky is in a weak position and is being bullied by the more powerful US officials who have leverage.
The context to this part of the conversation is particularly interesting, given it seems to focus on Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were just in Moscow meeting with Putin, and are spearheading efforts to get the Trump 28-point peace plan (or 19-points based on reports of a revised version) past the goal line. Politico presents the section of the transcript as follows:
Finland’s Stubb seemed to agree with Merz, according to the transcript. “We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” he said, apparently referring to Witkoff and Kushner, which attracted agreement from Rutte.
“I agree with Alexander — we must protect Volodymyr [Zelenskyy],” the NATO chief said. NATO declined to comment when reached by POLITICO.
Der Spiegel admits in its report that “These and other statements reproduced in the notes of the conversation illustrate the Europeans’ deep distrust of the two Trump confidants.” Michael Weiss, who was one of the report’s co-authors, framed all of this as focused on countering “American dirty tricks to the end war.“
One aspect to the conversation was the leaders found agreement on the issue of frozen Russian assets kept in EU banks, which they consider a purely European prerogative, amid recent reports the US is ready to return these to Moscow as part of a finalized Ukraine peace deal.
Washington efforts to quickly achieve peace by seriously engaging both sides are likened to “dirty tricks”?…
Zelensky’s office has meanwhile neither conformed nor denied the accuracy of the leaked transcript. An unnamed Ukrainian diplomat did respond as follows when probed by Politico: “In general, only the Russians benefit from any splits between Europe and America, so our consistent position is that transatlantic unity must be maintained.”
But the reality is that Zelensky has constantly pushed back against the idea of forging a peace without direct Ukrainian oversight and input. He has also consistently refused territorial concession, and his European backers have also balked at this key part of the Trump plan. The Kremlin is currently insisting that its control over the Donbass and Crimea not be just deemed de facto – but it wants full international and Ukrainian legal recognition that these territories are under the Russian Federation.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Ariana Grande quits press tour; UK: Thom Yorke postpones Radiohead concerts; Laura Wood collapses on live TV; GE: Thomas Gottschalk melts down on camera; SK: pop star HyunA collapses on stage
US: medium “Tyler Henry [29] abruptly cancels tour dates after star is rushed to hospital for emergency brain surgery”; SK: actress Kim Jung-nan, 54, collapses at home, rushed to ER
| Mark Crispin MillerDec 4 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES
Ariana Grande’s Family Gives Update on Her Recent Health Diagnosis
November 24, 2025
Ariana Grande is reportedly recovering after testing positive for COVID-19. The pop singer’s brother, Frankie Grande, has shared her latest health update, stating that she is now feeling better. The 32-year-old had been promoting “Wicked: For Good” when she came down with the virus, forcing her to pause her busy schedule. But with rest and encouragement from her fans, Ariana is expected to bounce back soon and continue her “Wicked” journey stronger than before.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s note – Ariana Grande has been vaccinated [sic] and is urging fans to get their jab in a lengthy Instagram post: Link
Tyler Henry abruptly cancels tour dates after star is rushed to hospital for emergency brain surgery
Dec. 4, 2025
HOLLYWOOD Medium star Tyler Henry has canceled his upcoming tour dates after he was rushed to the hospital for emergency brain surgery.
The Netflix star, 29, underwent his second brain surgery in six months after doctors discovered swelling, his husband Clint Godwin told fans last month.
UNITED KINGDOM
Thom Yorke [57] is ill: Radiohead postpones concerts at Royal Arena
December 1, 2025
The English rock band is postponing both tonight’s and Tuesday’s sold-out shows in Copenhagen until later this month because the singer is suffering from a throat infection. Radiohead also writes that the quintet is ‘heartbroken’ to have to give up on tonight’s and tomorrow’s concerts at short notice.
Laura Wood collapses on live TV
Dec. 2, 2025
UPDATE Dec 4: Woods posted to Instagram that medical staff told her it was likely a virus.
“Gosh that was a bit weird,” she wrote on the platform. “Sorry to worry everyone, I’m OK. Just need a bit of rest and hydration.”
She added: “I’m really embarrassed that happened on TV but a big thank you to my colleagues at ITV who have really looked after me tonight and for Wrighty and Neets for catching me.”
ORIGINAL STORY Dec 2: UK sports presenter Laura Woods collapsed on live TV during coverage of an England women’s soccer game this evening.
Woods fell to the side and had to be held up by pundits including former Arsenal and England striker Ian Wright at which point broadcaster ITV cut away from the live feed.
When the coverage returned, colleague Katie Shanahan had taken over as presenter and confirmed Woods had been “taken ill”, but added that she was “in very good hands”.
A Place In The Sun star’s husband, 45, suffers heart attack during filming
November 12, 2025
A Place In The Sun presenter Jasmine Harman has spoken about her husband’s medical emergency during the latest episode of her renovation show, which saw him tell Channel 4 cameras he had suffered a heart attack. The TV presenter and her husband Jon Boast, 45, had been filming for their property show Jasmine Harman’s Renovation In The Sun, in which the pair transformed a run-down 1980s villa in Spain into a new home for their family. But while working with the builders in Estepona, Boast suffered persistent chest pains and the paramedics were subsequently called to take him to the hospital. Speaking to the cameras in the Channel 4 episode, Harman, 50, said she had feared it might be a heart attack.
GERMANY
Fans are worried about Thomas Gottschalk “Is Gottschalk sick? He’s acting so weird”
November 14, 2025
On Thursday evening, the entertainment industry celebrated itself in Munich – only one person caused a frown: the legend Thomas Gottschalk. The 75-year-old presenter seemed visibly overwhelmed with his task. He asked in front of the camera: “Oh, I’m already on it?” – and seemed disoriented. His speech after that seemed incoherent and slow, and was peppered with incomprehensible anecdotes. Viewers expressed concern about his state of health. “Is Gottschalk sick? He’s so acting weird,” one viewer wrote.
SOUTH KOREA
K-Pop Star HyunA Apologizes To Fans For Collapsing On Stage After Battling Eating Disorder
Dec. 3, 2025
K-pop star HyunA gave her fans a scare when she collapsed on stage at a music festival in Macau, China.
While she was in the middle of singing her song “Bubble Pop,” HyunA abruptly fell to the floor. She was dramatically carried off stage amid cries of concern from the audience.
The singer later posted a black rectangle on Instagram, accompanied by an explanation for her followers.
Originally written in Korean, HyunA’s message translated reads, “I’m so, so sorry…”
“It’s been a short period since the last performance, but I wanted to show you a good side of myself, but I feel like I wasn’t professional enough, and honestly, I don’t remember anything either, so I kept thinking about it, and I really wanted to tell you.”
“Many Macau fans came, and of course, and everyone, including our A-ings, would have paid to see this performance, so I’m sorry, and I’m truly sorry.”
[“After battling eating disorder” is an obvious red herring.]
“I Almost Died”… Kim Jung-nan Suddenly Collapses at Home and Rushed to Emergency Room
November 15, 2025
Actress Kim Jung-nan (54) revealed that she had a near-death experience after suddenly losing consciousness. On the 12th, Kim Jung-nan uploaded a video titled “Kim Jung-nan’s True Sister Yoon Se-ah, Revealing Her Life Story for the First Time (From Sky Castle Behind-the-Scenes to Relationship Advice)” on her YouTube channel. While sharing her recent updates in the video, Kim Jung-nan began by saying, “I had a serious injury just a few days ago.” She confessed, “You might have thought I had a procedure, but I actually fainted a week ago and almost crossed over to the other side. It turned out to be vasovagal syncope. It happened to me suddenly a week ago.” She continued, “I collapsed next to my bedroom and hit my chin hard on the edge of the nightstand. In that moment, I thought, ‘Maria, Mom, it’s over for me.’ When I felt the bone, I couldn’t stop crying,” describing the urgent situation she faced. In the end, she called the 119 emergency number and was taken by ambulance to the emergency room. She explained, “I had a Computed Tomography (CT) scan and an X-ray to check for possible brain hemorrhage, and the next day I went to a hospital specializing in sutures for further treatment.”
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DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Breaking research paper on deadly Malone Pfizer Bourla et al. mRNA vaccine detected in blood & placenta! Why is RFK Jr., Kennedy & Makary still staring at their belly-buttons? Between this & Prasad
saying that the Malone Sahin Bancel Moderna et al. mRNA vaccine killed & kills our children, how come RFK Jr. is leaving mRNA vaccine on US market to kill more? Mordechay et al. (Nepetalactone News)
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 4 |
Earth paging RFK Jr. and Makary, check this finding out (see Dr. McKernan’s excellent stack and please support the great work, tireless of McKernan Nepetalactone Newsletter, Vaccine nucleic acid detected over 200 days out in blood and placenta):
Detection-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-Messenger-RNA-COVID-19-Vaccine-in-Human-Blood-Placenta-and-Semen.pdf
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
“Vaccine mRNA was detected in most samples from vaccinated individuals including their blood, placenta tissue, sperm and seminal fluid samples.
Notably, vaccine mRNA remained detectable in approximately half of the samples collected more than 200 days after vaccination, indicating prolonged persistence in the body.”
‘We also detected vaccine mRNA in the sperm of all three vaccinated donors who produced sperm.
Interestingly, this contrasts with the presence of the SARS-COV-2 itself. To date, only a fraction of publications dealing with the presence of SARS-COV-2 in semen found viral-specific sequences [11].
Most of the participants who had viral sequences detected in the semen in that study were in the acute phase of the disease [12]. These studies however, used RT-qPCR, a technique that we have shown to be much less sensitive than the nested PCR employed in this work. We detected vaccine mRNA in the blood, placenta and semen of some subjects over 200 days post-immunization. The use of nested PCR with 20 and 35 cycles in the first and second PCRs, respectively, combined with relatively large amount of RNA used for analysis, enabled detection of even very few vaccine molecules [15].’
So why are HHS, CDC, FDA, NIH etc. health officials tone deaf and silent on what Prasad stated? Do they want our children to die, more of them from the Malone et al. Pfizer mRNA vaccine? Does RFK Jr. want our children to die from the mRNA vaccine? Why has he not acted post Prasad’s statement that at least 10 kids died due to the mRNA vaccine…does he even know what to do? What other evidence does he, RFK Jr., need? Does The Outlaw Josie Susie Wales have his balls in such a tight grip, that he is rendered helpful, and is lost for words? Or are these DC clowns so full of wine and cheese that they cannot even find their offices and thus do not know what to do? Do you find I have no respect for them? Then you are right! I have zero respect for these 5 misfits Oz, RFK Jr., Bhattacharya, Makary and ding-a-ling Prasad…5 people who have deceived us and are now playing politics…I had prior. It is now gone!
This substack by Anandamide is staggering for it builds on work people like Naiomi Wolf, James Thorp, McCullough, myself, Oskoui, Risch et al. have been saying for years now! That there is placental transfer and breach of mRNA that is deleterious to the mother and baby in utero…that the vaccine and content et al. do not stay at deltoid injection site and does not readily dissolve…this is why I go after the con man Malone for this little man stayed silent knowing that there was reverse transcription of mRNA, that it would not readily dissolve, that it could not stay at injection site etc. how do I know that? well he told us that by the very nature of his work on mRNA and liposomes lipids etc. This miscreant was doing research on how to transport mRNA as a payload and the types of lipid-based molecular carriers needed. He knew the very fact it is being placed in a transport carrying case so to speak, meant the intent was to take it far and wide inside the body, systemically. Yet the beast was silent as he took donor money and shilled for you to take the vaccine…and when deaths were too much the little one ran inside the Freedom movement and befriended good people at EPOCH and DEL etc. who fell for the fraud con man crap. Up to today, the con Malone cannot find that data he told us about…maybe we should ask RFK Jr., maybe he gave him…ha ha ha ha…
RFK Jr. is playing a game on us, putting Malone in ACIP…what a joke! what a betrayal.
‘This study examines the persistence of synthetic mRNA from the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty in the blood, placenta, sperm, and seminal fluid of both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
Samples were collected from 34 participants, including 22 pregnant women, four male patients from a fertility clinic (providing eight samples), and eight additional individuals.
RNA was extracted and analyzed using nested PCR, and the resulting amplicons were confirmed by Sanger sequencing.
Vaccine mRNA was detected in most samples from vaccinated individuals including their blood, placenta tissue, sperm and seminal fluid samples.
Notably, vaccine mRNA remained detectable in approximately half of the samples collected more than 200 days after vaccination, indicating prolonged persistence in the body.
These findings expand the limited data available on the biodistribution of the Comirnaty vaccine and its potential implications for pregnancy and fertility’
NEWSWIZE/NEWSADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| ‘Squad’ Democrat Bails On Senate RaceRep. Ayanna Pressley is taking a pass on the Senate spotlight and sticking to her safe turf in Massachusetts. The Boston Democrat, a card-carrying member of the progressive “squad,” said Tuesday she won’t challenge Sen. Ed Markey for his seat and will instead seek another term in the 7th Congressional District. “Hearing from so many people from throughout our Commonwealth …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NEW: Terror Attack Thwarted On Major College CampusA University of Delaware student is facing a pile of serious charges after police say they caught him with a small arsenal and a notebook packed with disturbing sketches of the school’s police department. Luqmaan Khan, 25, was busted just before midnight on Nov. 24. The university confirmed he’s an undergraduate and barred him from all campuses while investigators dig …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| High-Profile Democrat’s Attempt At Political Comeback Crashes And BurnsFormer New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey’s long-shot political revival fizzled out on Tuesday night as Jersey City Councilman James Solomon clinched the mayor’s race. The Associated Press called the runoff shortly after polls closed, handing the win to Solomon, who will take over for outgoing Mayor Steven Fulop after the Democrat’s failed run for governor. Though both contenders are Democrats, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| ‘Blackmailed By Taliban’: Shock New Details Emerge From Probe Into DC National Guard ShootingInvestigators are probing whether the suspect accused of gunning down two National Guard troops near the White House was being blackmailed by the Taliban, a chilling twist in a case that has rocked Washington. Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, a former Afghan fighter who once worked alongside U.S. forces, is charged with first-degree murder for allegedly shooting two West Virginia National Guard …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| JUST IN: Trump Pardons Democrat Congressman In Staggering MovePresident Donald Trump made headlines on Wednesday morning by announcing a “full and unconditional pardon” for Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, and his wife, Imelda, wiping away the Biden-era corruption case that sent shockwaves through Washington. Trump unloaded on Truth Social, accusing the Biden administration of targeting Cuellar for refusing to play along on border policy. “For years, the Biden Administration …READ THE FULL REPORT |
GOP Divide Deepens Over Venezuela: Ron Johnson Says “Get Rid of Maduro” While Rand Paul Calls It “Offensive War Of Choice”
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 09:20 PM
Authored by Liam Cosgrove,
Tensions are brewing within the Republican party over the Trump administration’s stance on Venezuela – with some populist conservatives like Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) supporting all out regime change in the South American country, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has explicitly rejected regime change.
Most republicans have thus far granted Trump leeway on the strikes which the administration says are strictly targeting cartel boats, however there are rumblings among the party that if regime change or a ground invasion is the goal, congressional approval will be required.
The party is largely split into three camps.
Hardliners: ‘Long Overdue’ and No Need for Congress
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) said the strikes didn’t require congressional approval, arguing forcefully that the U.S. had waited too long to confront what he described as a drug-trafficking and terror-financing threat.
“These guys are bringing drugs into our country. They’re killing Americans. It’s long overdue,” Burchett told ZeroHedge. “Trump gets that… that’s why he does executive orders, because we [Congress] ain’t got the guts to do anything.”
Asked whether Trump needed authorization from Congress, Burchett said:
“No, heck no… bust their ass.”
Sen. Rick Scott (R-L) sees Maduro not as a head of state, but as a criminal. “He’s the head of drug cartels,” Scott told us. “He lost the election. He’s not the president of Venezuela… He needs to be arrested for selling drugs in this country.”
In agreement with Burchett and Scott, Johnson said he supports Trump acting unilaterally: “We elect presidents to make those kinds of decisions… I don’t see any reason to deny President Trump the same ability to make those tough calls.”
Conditional Support: Limited Strikes OK, War Requires Congress
Other Republicans drew a distinction between narrow operations and a broader conflict.
Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) told us he believes the president has authority to take “limited action,” but only to a point.
“If we’re going to go into a war with another nation… if we’re gonna be doing some form of regime change… the president should be getting Congress’ buy-in,” he said.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) added that further escalation could trigger the need for congressional action. “At some point, insofar as there’s kinetic action in Venezuela, on Venezuelan soil, it may come to that [a vote in Congress],” Lee told us.
Constitutional Critics: ‘Offensive War of Choice’
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) told ZeroHedge he believes the strikes may raise legal and humanitarian issues, noting that U.S. law prohibits targeting incapacitated combatants.
“Once people are incapacitated by a bomb… crawling away, swimming away… our laws say you’re not allowed to bomb them,” Paul said. Further, Paul called for Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to testify under oath about the orders given.
He rejected colleagues’ calls for regime change, saying: “I agree with Donald Trump of 2015… who argued against regime change,” he said. “An offensive war of choice is not my choice.”
Senate Democrats are likewise taking the constitutionality angle in their criticisms of the President.
“The constitution’s very specific. The president is saying we’re at war with unknown, unnamed people, and we should be coming before Congress,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) told us. “It’s clearly, clearly a violation of our constitution.”
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1648 UP 0.0013 PTS OR 13 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MOSTLY GREEN
USA/ YEN 154.82 DOWN 0.392 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3343 DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3966 UP 0.0013 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.21 PTS OR 0.06%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 175.17 PTS OR 0.68%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.14%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 175.17 PTS OR 0.68%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.21 POINTS OR 0.06%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.14 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1163.74 PTS OR 2.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4200.75
silver:$57.47
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.83 UP 4 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.097 % UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.941% UP 5 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.398 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.241 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.467 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7624 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1669 UP 0.0002 OR 2 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.72 DOWN 0.392 OR YEN IS UP 40 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.420 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.155 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0005 OR 5 BASIS pts to 1.3958
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.0717 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.0672
TURKISH LIRA: 42.44 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.9624 UP 5 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.398 DOWN 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.086% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.743 UP 2 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.514 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4205.40
SILVER AT 10;00: 57.63
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 18.80PTS OR 0.19%
GERMAN DAX: UP 188.02pts or 0.79%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 34,61 pts or 0.43%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 160.60pts or 0.97%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 138.43. or 0.32%
WTI Oil price 59.32 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.87 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 75.73 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 42/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.230 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.788 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1643 DOWN 0.0023 OR 23 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3332 DOWN 0.015 OR 15 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4370 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.164 DOWN 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.937UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.399 DOWN 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.06 DOWN 0.045 OR YEN UP 5 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3956 UP 0.0003 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 59.72
Brent OIL: 63.34
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.107
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 PTS to 4.764%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.527 UP 4 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.266 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.828 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.01 UP 22 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.44 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.621 UP 0 AND 37/100 roubles //
GOLD $4207.85(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 57.08 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 31.96 OR 0.067 %
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 24.85 PTS OR 0.097%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.79 DOWN 0.29 PTS OR 1.80.%
GLD: $ 387.13 UP 0.25 PTS OR 0.065%
SLV/ $51.76 DOWN 1.31 PTS OR OR 2.47%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 317,03 PTS OR 1.02%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Super-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Bonds & Bitcoin Dip On ‘Good’ Data
WRAP UP;
Stocks mixed and bonds sold on encouraging labour market data – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 03:57 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold flat
- REAR VIEW: US initial and continued claims drop more than expected; US Factory Orders miss expectations; BoJ sources point towards a likely hike in Dec., govt reportedly not to attempt to intervene; US issues travel alert to Venezuela; META CEO expected to cut metaverse resources meaningfully; Trump admin to discuss whether to give NVDA license to export H200 to China.
- COMING UP: Data: German Industrial Orders (Oct), French Trade Balance (Oct), Italian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Employment Final (Q3), EZ GDP Revised (Q3), Canadian Jobs Report (Nov), US PCE (Sep), US University of Michigan Prelim (Dec). Events: RBI Announcement. Speakers: ECB’s Lane. Supply: Australia.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks finished Thursday mixed, with the Russell posting notable gains while the Nasdaq underperformed in the red, with the S&P 500 roughly flat. Futures were supported briefly in pre-market trade on reports that Meta (META) is cutting 30% of its budget on Metaverse spending, which gave a boost to Meta shares and US indices as the tech giant puts more effort into AI. However, the move was only short-lived for the indices, but Meta still closed with gains of c. 3.5%. Meanwhile, T-notes were lower across the curve with pressure during the APAC and European sessions tracking JGBs lower on reports of a December rate hike from the BoJ. Meanwhile, focus then turned to US data, which showed a slowdown both in challenger layoffs and in the total non-farm payroll losses M/M reported by RevelioLabs. There was also a minor M/M improvement on the Chicago Fed unemployment rate estimate for November. Meanwhile, both initial and continued jobless claims came in below all analyst forecasts, helping ease some recent labour market concerns. The overall encouraging labour market metrics weighed on T-notes across the curve. T-notes hit lows on the IJC print but swiftly pared amid questions around its accuracy due to Thanksgiving last week. Nonetheless, T-notes gradually sold off to settle around the earlier lows thereafter. Oil prices settled in the green with little progress seen from the US/Russia talks on Ukraine, with oil prices continuing to pare the peace optimism seen on Tuesday. In FX, the Dollar saw mild gains in the higher yield environment following the US labour market metrics, but gains were capped on the Yen strength following the aforementioned BoJ hike reports. Gold prices were flat, continuing to hover around USD 4,200/oz, while silver prices were sold. Elsewhere, reports noted that Senators are looking to block the Trump administration from loosening rules that restrict Beijing’s access to AI chips for 2.5 years. This includes sales of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 and Blackwell chips.
US DATA
JOBLESS CLAIMS: The Weekly Initial Jobless claims saw a notable drop in the latest week to just 191k from the prior 218k, the lowest print since September 2022. The data came in below the 220k forecast and beneath the lowest estimate of 205k. The big divergence from expectations may be due to issues around reporting during the Thanksgiving week; however, when looking back to the 2024 Thanksgiving week, there was not much divergence in weekly claims. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that the low claims number is largely due to a sloppy seasonal adjustment. Note, the non-seasonally adjusted data fell 49k to 197k, with seasonal factors expecting a 21k decrease. Given the weekly release of the data, one print should not be read as a clear signal, but if claims in the week ahead continue to print lower than recent averages, it would suggest the labour market is not as weak as feared. Meanwhile, continued claims, for the preceding week, fell to 1.939mln from 1.943mln, despite expectations for a rise to 1.961mln.
LABOUR MARKET PROXIES: Thursday also saw the release of several other labour market metrics from the Chicago Fed and other private releases. The Chicago Fed Unemployment rate estimate for November was unchanged from the mid-month read of 4.44%, and is down slightly from October’s 4.46%. Meanwhile, the November RevelioLabs total non-farm payrolls estimate saw a decline of 9k in November, with the prior revised to -15.5k from -9.1k. Challenger Layoffs saw the pace of job cuts slow in November to 71k from 153k. “Layoff plans fell last month, certainly a positive sign. That said, job cuts in November have risen above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 12+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-23
T-notes sold on US labour market data and hawkish BoJ reports ahead of supply next week. At settlement, 2-year +4.5bps at 3.531%, 3-year +5.0bps at 3.552%, 5-year +5.7bps at 3.682%, 7-year +5.6bps at 3.877%, 10-year +5.0bps at 4.108%, 20-year +4.3bps at 4.725%, 30-year +4.1bps at 4.766%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +0.9bps at 2.735%, 3-year BEI +2.6bps at 2.445%, 5-year BEI +2.4bps at 2.260%, 10-year BEI +2.1bps at 2.252%, 30-year BEI +1.1bps at 2.228%.
THE DAY: T-notes were lower across the curve on Thursday with pressure seen overnight and in the European morning, tracking JGBs lower on more reports suggesting a BoJ rate hike in December. However, T-notes extended to lows on US labour market data. The downside extended after challenger layoffs saw the pace of layoffs slow to 71k in November from 153k in October, with T-notes gradually moving lower after the release. T-notes hit session lows in wake of the jobless claims data, which saw initial claims print the lowest number since September 2022 at 191k, down from the prior 218k and well below the 220k forecast. It was also below the lowest forecast of 205k. However, it is likely largely related to seasonal effects from Thanksgiving last week, which saw the move swiftly pare. However, if claims remain around this level in the weeks ahead, it would likely help offset recent labour market fears. Elsewhere, the Revelio NFP report saw job losses of 9k in November vs the revised -15.5k in October, while the Chicago Fed unemployment rate was maintained from the mid-month read of 4.44%, a slight improvement from the 4.46% in October. Attention turns to JOLTS on Tuesday for another look into the labour market ahead of the Dec 10th FOMC. PCE on Friday will also be gauged. T-notes gradually sold off throughout the session to test the post IJC lows, which ultimately found support at 112-22, and settled just above the session low.
SUPPLY:
Notes
US Treasury to sell:
- USD 58bln of 3-year notes on 8th Dec.
- USD 39bln in 10-year notes on 9th Dec.
- USD 22bln of 30-year bonds on Dec 11th.
Bills
- US sold USD 80bln of 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.620%, B/C 2.98x;
- US sold USD 90bln of 4-week bills at high rate of 3.680%, B/C 2.69x
- US to sell USD 75bln of 6-week bills on December 9th
- US to sell USD 86bln of 13-week bills on December 8th.
- US to sell USD 77bln of 26-week bills on December 8th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 21.3bps (prev. 21.6bps), January 29.6bps (prev. 30.0bps), March 36.7bps (prev. 38.3bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 2.2bln (prev. 2.5bln) across 39 counterparties (prev. 40)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 0.002bln (prev. 0.001bln) across two operations.
- EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 85bln (prev. 91bln) on December 3rd.
- SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 4.01%), volumes at USD 3.360tln (prev. 3.407tln) on December 3rd.
- Treasury Buyback (10-20 year, max USD 2bln): Accepts USD 2bln of 28.4bln offers; Accepts 2 eligible issues out of 34 offered
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED USD 0.72 HIGHER AT USD 59.67/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 0.59 HIGHER AT USD 63.26/BBL
Crude prices were firmer on Thursday, continuing to pare the optimistic-induced downside seen on Tuesday when US officials met with Russian President Putin. Geopolitical updates continued to suggest progress is at a halt. Putin viewed the meeting as necessary but said it was “too early to say” and claimed Russia would take control of Donbas and Novorossiya by military means or otherwise. In the US morning, a bout of pressure was seen in the complex, seemingly weighed from the Saudi Arabia OSP premium to Asia against the Oman/Dubai average coming in on the low end of analysts’ expectations (act. +USD 0.60/bbl, exp. 0.60-0.70/bbl, prev. 1.00/bbl). Crude prices briefly moved into the red before hitting new highs shortly after, despite quiet newsflow. Tensions between Venezuela and the US remain elevated amid the US issuing a travel alert to Venezuela, and as such is likely to bolster the risk premium in the space. Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon says the rising tensions are likely to push oil prices higher, especially as China and India rely heavily on Venezuelan crude. Leon expects continued volatility, with geopolitical risks firmly embedded in the market.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.11% at 6,857, NDX -0.10% at 25,582, DJI -0.07% at 47,851, RUT +0.76% at 2,531
SECTORS: Health -0.73%, Consumer Staples -0.73%, Consumer Discretionary -0.48%, Materials -0.48%, Utilities -0.21%, Real Estate -0.12%, Financials +0.24%, Energy +0.38%, Communication Services +0.42%, Technology +0.43%, Industrials +0.51%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.41% at 5,718, Dax 40 +0.85% at 23,894, FTSE 100 +0.19% at 9,711, CAC 40 +0.43% at 8,122, FTSE MIB +0.32% at 43,519, IBEX 35 +0.97% at 16,747, PSI +0.23% at 8,239, SMI +0.41% at 12,910, AEX -0.20% at 948
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Salesforce (CRM): Earnings & revenue guidance beat
- Snowflake (SNOW): Reported weak operating margin outlook
- Dollar General (DG): Earnings beat with FY EPS outlook above expectations.
- Hormel Foods (HRL): Profit beat.
- Five Below (FIVE): Q3 metrics surpassed forecasts
- Guidewire Software (GWRE): Earnings beat and FY guidance was raised
- UiPath (PATH): Q3 metrics & guidance beat
- HealthEquity (HQY): EPS & revenue topped.
- PVH (PVH): Issued downbeat forecasts
- Toast (TOST): Upgraded at JPM to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’.
- PayPal (PYPL): Downgraded at JPM to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’.
- US senators seek to block NVIDIA (NVDA) sales of advanced chips to China for 30 months and would target NVDA’s H200 and Blackwell chips, via FT.
- Imax (IMAX) guided initial FY26 adj. EBITDA margin at or above 45%, via investor slides.
- US reportedly plans more stakes in mineral companies, according to a Trump official cited by Bloomberg.
- Pepsi (PEP) reportedly close to an agreement with activist investor Elliott, via WSJ
FX
The Dollar Index was slightly firmer on Thursday as EUR & CHF selling more than offset the gains in JPY. The bigger-than-expected drop in the weekly claims report offered a nice touch for the Fed on the labour side of the dual mandate, given the recent ADP figure solidified labour market concerns as the driving force behind policy decisions. Both initial and continued claims dropped beneath the analyst’s lowest forecast range, with initial back to Sept 2022 levels while continued remains elevated. That said, the drop has the potential to be a one-off, with some desks citing a poor seasonal adjustment over the Thanksgiving period. DXY was little phased by the data failing to track the move in US yields higher throughout the session; DXY hovers around 99.00.
JPY was firmer as both Reuters and Bloomberg reports pointed towards an increasing chance of a BoJ hike in December. Reuters sources noted that the BoJ is likely to hike rates in December, with both news outlets’ sources noting that the government wouldn’t try to circumvent such a decision. JPY strength tracked the move higher in JGB yields, which saw the 20-year yield move to its highest level since mid-1999 and the 30-year to a record high. Now, a 66% chance of a December hike is priced in. USD/JPY hit lows of 154.52 before rebounding to ~155.00.
CHF and Scandi FX were the worst G10 performers, with softer-than-expected inflation reports this week weighing on CHF and SEK. In Sweden, CPI Flash Y/Y (Nov) printed 2.3% (exp. 2.5%), resulting in marginal SEK pressure at the time, which increased over the day. EUR/SEK rose to ~10.97 from earlier 10.9345 lows while USD/CHF trades around 0.8034 highs from the 0.7995 trough.
CNY: The Chinese Yuan faced pressure from the PBoC’s softer-than-expected reference rate setting following the CNY rising to a 14-month high. After, Reuters reported that Chinese State-owned banks reportedly bought USD on the onshore spot market this week in a bid to rein in CNY strength, to which, Bloomberg reported similarly that China gave its most forceful signal since 2022 to slow Yuan gains.
DATA RELEASES
NOT MUCH TO THE USA ECONOMY
‘No Hire, No Fire’ Economy Confirmed As US Jobless Claims & Hiring Plans Plummet
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 08:58 AM
With the spice flowing once again (post shutdown), initial jobless claims continue to signal no labor market pain at all… plummeting last week to 191k (the lowest since Sept 2022 and before that the lowest since 1969!!)
Distortions around Thanksgiving likely skewed the reading, with California, Texas, and New York saw the largest drop in non-seasonally adjusted claims.
The drops in both California and Texas are one of the largest weekly declines seen outside of the pandemic…
It appears a lack of government firings is helping as the ‘Deep Tristate’ initial claims tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2024…
This lack of firing comes as ADP reports the biggest manufacturing sector job losses since COVID and Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports U.S.-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, up 24% from the 57,727 job cuts announced in the same month last year.
“Layoff plans fell last month, certainly a positive sign. That said, job cuts in November have risen above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Continuing jobless claims continue to oscillate just above the 1.9 million Maginot Line…
Yet another alternative labor market signal points to weakness (more in line with ADP’s job losses) as Revelio shows 9k job losses in November…
Hiring Plans Plummet
Through November, global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that U.S. employers have announced 497,151 planned hires, down 35% from the 761,954 announced at this point in 2024.
It is the lowest year-to-date total since 2010…
WARNing
Additionally, WARN notices, which have previously led unemployment claims, are rising again.
As Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, The WARN Act obliges employers with more than 100 full-time workers to provide written notice to the state and the workers themselves at least 60-90 days ahead of planned plant closings and mass layoffs. It is one of the best real-time reads on the labor market, and has remained very low and steady, around an average of 220-230k, over the past two years.
As the chart below shows, WARN notices has led previous rises in claims. It has also given some false positives, but given the likely impact on yields should we see a sudden deterioration in employment, the recent rise is notable.
That the slowing in the jobs market is set to gather pace is captured in other indicators.
The NFIB small business survey polls respondents on whether they think the single most important problem they face is poor sales.
That has been rising, which often precedes the unemployment rate. Small businesses employ about half the workforce in the US and given the plunge in small business jobs reported by ADP yesterday, it seems labor market pains are starting to accelerate under the surface.
In short – the labor market remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma with every indicator pointing in different directions – choose your own adventure.
END
US Durable Goods Orders Solid In September
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 10:08 AM
While ‘soft’ survey data has been a shitshow, ‘hard’ data has been stable (what little we actually had during the shutdown)…
Source: Bloomberg
Today we get more ‘catch-up’ data with Factory Orders and Durable Goods data for September.
US Factory Orders disappointed, rising just 0.2% MoM (+0.3% exp) and slowing notably from the +1.3% MoM jump in August (and up 3.6% YoY)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Factory Orders (ex-Transports) also rose 0.2% MoM, up notably from the downwardly revised 0.1% MoM decline in August (but remains up over 1% YoY)…
Source: Bloomberg
The final print for Durable Goods Orders were all in line with the flash prints, with the headline rising 0.5% MoMm which helped push Orders up a solid 9.6% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Durable Goods orders rose for the 6th straight month and are up over 3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, this data is extremely stale now, but still it’s positive overall (despite job losses in the goods-producing sector).
END
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
should be quite interesting!!
Jack Smith Subpoenaed For Deposition Before House Judiciary Committee, Jordan Says
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 06:00 PM
Jack Smith has been called to the House for a deposition before the House Judiciary Committee, after Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) fired off a subpoena to the former special counsel.
In a Wednesday letter to Smith, Jordan instructed him to show up before the House committee on Dec. 17 at 10am ET.
“Due to your service as Special Counsel, the Committee believes that you possess information that is vital to its oversight of this matter,” Jordan wrote in the letter to Smith which he also posted to his X account. “Based upon communications with your counsel, we understand that you are available to testify at a deposition” on the aforementioned date.
As the Epoch Times notes further, Jordan’s subpoena also included a request for communications and documents connected to Smith’s investigation as special counsel, which involved charges being brought against President Donald Trump in two cases.
Smith had charged Trump in Washington over his challenging the results of the 2020 election, and charged him in Florida with illegally retaining classified documents. Trump had pleaded not guilty to the charges, while Smith ultimately dropped both cases.
Weeks before Trump took office a second time, Smith released a report in January that defended his special counsel investigation and the charges that were brought. The former special counsel argued that the charges were dropped due to a longstanding Department of Justice policy that discourages the prosecution of sitting presidents, but stressed that he believed in the merits of the charges.
“It is equally important for me to make clear that nobody within the Department of Justice ever sought to interfere with, or improperly influence, my prosecutorial decision making,” Smith said in the Jan. 7 letter that was sent to then-Attorney General Merrick Garland.
The Department of Justice under the Biden administration also never sought to “improperly influence my decision as to whether to bring charges” against Trump, Smith said.
The allegation that “my decisions as a prosecutor were influenced or directed by the Biden administration or other political actors is, in a word, laughable,” he also said.
The House Judiciary Committee has already sent several letters to Smith so far this year, including one in October that alleged Smith may have obtained phone records of sitting Republican lawmakers as part of his investigation. Several former members of Smith’s team have testified or have been called to testify before the Judiciary panel, Jordan has said.
In a letter sent to Smith, Jordan wrote at the time that his “testimony is necessary to understand the full extent to which the Biden-Harris Justice Department weaponized federal law enforcement.”
“As the Special Counsel, you are ultimately responsible for the prosecutorial misconduct and constitutional abuses of your office. Your misdeeds were so flagrant that the Justice Department’s Office of Professional Responsibility confirmed to the Committee in November 2024 that it had opened an inquiry into the tactics of your office,” Jordan wrote.
In his first public remarks since leaving the government, Smith told a panel hosted by former FBI counsel Andrew Weissman that allegations he was operating in a politicized manner are incorrect. Smith also said he was concerned about attempts to demonize career DOJ officials to score political points.
The Epoch Times contacted Smith’s legal team for comment on Dec. 3.
END
SMART MOVE ON THE PART OF ROLLINS:
USDA Will Withhold SNAP Funds From 21 States That Refused To Provide Data
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 11:45 AM
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says she will be moving to stop federal funding to 21 non-compliant states that have refused to provide data from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
In February, the Trump administration had asked all states to provide their SNAP data to the federal government as part of the administration’s efforts to root out waste and fraud in the welfare program.
29 mostly Republican-led states provided the data and revealed 500,000 cases of duplicate benefits as well as 186,000 deceased individuals’ Social Security numbers in use.
But 21 mostly Democrat-led states, including California, Minnesota and New York, have dug in their heels and refused to provide the information, citing concerns over privacy.
Secretary Rollins told reporters that if a state refuses to share data on criminal use of SNAP benefits, “it won’t get a dollar of federal SNAP administrative funding.”
Rollins said that cooperation is needed from all states in order to root out fraud in the SNAP program and that action is impending for those states that refuse to provide names and immigration status of aid recipients.
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, Rollins said, “We asked for all the states for the first time to turn over their data to the federal government to let the USDA partner with them to root out this fraud, to make sure that those who really need food stamps are getting them, but also to ensure that the American taxpayer is protected.”
Rollins accused former president Joe Biden of trying to “buy an election” by ramping up food stamp funding by 40% last year.
Roughly 42 million recipients currently use SNAP benefits to help buy their groceries, at an annual cost to taxpayers of nearly $100 billion a year.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
Victor Davis Hanson Proclaims “The End Of Climate Change”
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Decades of ‘consensus‘ around so-called climate catastrophe are now running into new economic, technological, and geopolitical realities.
Mix in AI and its unprecedented demand for large-scale electricity generation, and we have a global climate conversation that demands to be reckoned with.
Victor Davis Hanson breaks down how the foundations of decades of “green orthodoxy” are shifting:
For decades, the narrative demanded radical economic shifts from fossil fuels to renewables like wind and solar, but recent skepticism is growing due to inconsistencies in temperature records and cyclical changes; Hanson notes, “I didn’t think in my lifetime that I would see an end to that dominance, even though there were inconsistencies.”
Artificial intelligence requires unprecedented electricity, far beyond what wind and solar can provide, necessitating 100 gigawatt plants annually equivalent to nuclear or fossil fuels; as Hanson cites Sam Altman, “we’re going to have to build 100 [one gigawatt plants] per year or the equivalent of clean coal or natural gas.”
Figures like Sweden’s King Gustaf XVI and Bill Gates have publicly questioned the crisis, while Trump’s energy policies end subsidies for failed green projects like California’s high-speed rail; Hanson highlights Gates’ recent pivot, “he no longer believes that there is an impending climate change crisis.”
Elite hypocrisy is everywhere as Hanson notes “the people who have been the avatars of climate change, never suffer the consequences of their own ideology.“
“Barack Obama said the planet would be inundated pretty soon, if we didn’t address global climate change. Why would he buy a seaside estate at Martha’s Vineyard or one on the beach of Hawaii if he really did believe that the oceans would rise and flood his multimillion-dollar investment?
“The inconsistency of the global warming narrative, the self-interest in the people who promote it, and the logic that they have not presented, empirically, any evidence that would convince us that we have to radically transform our economies,” leaves Hanson questioning whether AI’s demand shift has permanently crushed the ideology of so-called ‘climate change.’
(0:00) Introduction
(0:58) Shifting Perspectives on Climate Change
(2:28) Global Skepticism
(5:12) Geopolitical Factors
(6:16) Third World Demands
(8:30) Hypocrisy Among Climate Change Advocates
(9:49) Conclusion
Watch the full breakdown here…
KING NEWS
| The King Report December 4, 2025 Issue 7632 | Independent View of the News |
| The FT: Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair … worrying he will cut interest rates aggressively to please President Donald Trump… The discussions took place in November, before Treasury secretary Scott Bessent held his second round of interviews with candidates to replace Jay Powell… John Stopford, head of managed income at asset manager Ninety One, added: “I think the market sees him as a Trump stooge which erodes the Fed’s credibility at the margin.” https://www.ft.com/content/ad4bfd8b-a0f8-4f9e-a234-eed589e3d0ab ADP Employment Change for November: -32k, +10k expected, prior +42k MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended on November 28: -1.4% week/week ESZs opened a tad higher on Tuesday night and staged a modest rally during the first hour of night trading. ESZs then broke lower and turned negative at 19:20 ET. After hitting a low of 6839.00 (-1.25) at 19:20 ET, ESZs rallied to 6857.00 at 22:43 ET. ESZs traded in a 12-handle range until they broke higher after the 7 ET US repo market opening. ESZs hit a daily high of 6862.25 (+22.25) at 8:14 ET. ESZs then fell on the ugly ADP Employment Change (8:15 release) to 6854.00 at 8:17 ET. ‘Bad economic news means Fed rate cut’ buyers lifted ESZs to 6860.50 at 8:52 ET. ESZs then plunged to a daily low of 6817.50 at 9:10 ET. But Fed rate cut buyers regrouped and got aggressive; ESZs soared to 6859.50 at 11:37 ET. After a sudden drop (post-European close move) to 6840.00 at 11:54 ET, ESZs intractably rallied to a new high of 6873.25 at 15:12 ET. After an A-B-C decline to 6859.25 at 15:54 ET, ESZs bounced to 6864.00 at 16:00 ET. The DJIA and DJTA rallied sharply; Fangs declined smartly with the NY Fang+ Index being -1.78% at its low (9:53 ET). Netflix -6.7% at its low, and Microsoft, -3.0% at its low, were the featured losers. Netflix Offers Mostly Cash for Warner Bros. in New Bid Round – BBG Microsoft Lowers AI Software Sales Quotas as Costumers Resist Newer Products – BBG 98 ET OpenAI’s “Code Red” – Maybe people should have seen this coming? “… OpenAI lacks both profits and a moat. The systems that they build are hugely expensive to operate, because they require massive amounts of compute for training… Google seems finally to be catching up, with their Gemini model… Large language models such as ChatGPT may quickly become commodities; we can expect price wars, and profits may continue to be elusive, or modest at best.” – from my January 2024 warning that OpenAI’s luck might run out… The basic thesis then was that although OpenAI was then the darling of AI, things could change. Things took longer to unravel than I thought they would, but OpenAI’s unraveling has begun. As The Wall Street Journal reports, the company has just declared a Code Red; they are terrified that Google’s new model has eclipsed them. By any reasonable measure OpenAI has clearly squandered the sizable lead they once had… Their war chest is impressive, but their burn rate is terrifying. My guess is that they have cumulatively raised on the order of $100 billion since they launched, perhaps more than any other company in history, but have already spent most of it, and likely don’t have much more than a year’s runway left… https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-code-red OpenAI cofounder says scaling compute is not enough to advance AI: ‘It’s back to the age of research again’ – Tech companies have poured hundreds of billions into acquiring GPUs and building data centers to essentially make their AI tools — whether that’s LLMs or image-generation models — better. The wisdom goes that the more compute you have or the more training data you have, the smarter your AI tool will be… Sutskever, who now runs Safe Superintelligence Inc., believes that method is running out of runway; data is finite, and organizations already have access to a massive amount of compute, he said… “The thing, which I think is the most fundamental, is that these models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people,” he said. “It’s super obvious. That seems like a very fundamental thing.” https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cofounder-ilya-sutskever-scaling-ai-age-of-research-dwarkesh-2025-11 Isn’t ‘generalize’ another word for ‘think’ or ‘infer.’ So basically, still computers CANNOT THINK. They can only regurgitate, catalogue, and organize programmer inputs – no matter how big they are. @MHowellTweets: Artificial Intelligence doesn’t know the truth and it never will. It can’t. All it can know are patterns stitched together from whatever it digests. And like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. I know this all too well from personal experience: a bad diet has bad results. But at the risk of sounding hypocritical, I have to say it: AI is eating garbage. Tons of it… The people building today’s AI systems choose what these models are trained on and how much credibility each source gets. They calibrate the entire information diet, and we see the consequences in the outputs. Take Elon Musk. His model, Grok, is trained primarily on X data. Meanwhile, models like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini gorge themselves on a steady stream of Wikipedia pages and Reddit threads… The information has been laundered, filtered from a questionable source into a polished, authoritative-seeming format. It would be funny if it weren’t so dangerous… https://x.com/MHowellTweets/status/1996268921712742410 Apple’s App Store saw spending slowdown in November, Goldman Sachs says Spending grew 6% year-over-year to $6.61B0, down from 9% growth in October, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng noted. Games saw a notable decline, as the all-important category, which accounts for roughly 44% of total spend, saw a 2% year-over-year decline, compared to 3% growth in October… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/apple-s-app-store-saw-spending-slowdown-in-november-goldman-sachs-says/ar-AA1RzJ2C @scottlincicome: Pay more, get less: “US sales on Black Friday hit $18 billion, up 3% compared with a year earlier…. But US shoppers purchased 2% fewer items at checkout, and with average prices up 7%, shoppers made 1% fewer online orders.” http://logistics.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gtjhrjl-tuuhhrtjhj-r/ The Global High Inflation Equilibrium Idiosyncratic stories don’t explain this broad rise in inflation. Instead, a more likely explanation is that monetary policy on a global level is too loose and the world’s economy is running hot… https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global-high-inflation-equilibrium @robin_j_brooks: Core inflation in each of the G-4 has settled well above its pre-COVID equilibrium and in most cases is above the 2% target. That’s not about supply shocks, but about demand and a global economy that’s running hot. No wonder we have the “debasement trade.” https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995831198107795710 @biancoresearch: This chart illustrates the incredible stat reposted below. Blue is retail sales AFTER inflation, almost no gain in 3 years. Orange is retail sales BEFORE (nominal), soaring as prices are much higher. How does cutting rates and pumping stocks fix this?… https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1996325674882154740 “The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats,” Trump said Dec. 2. “The word affordability is a Democrat scam.” If the public thinks affordability (inflation) is a problem, then it is! Yelling at them that they’re being scammed, and what they see in the store is a terrible strategy. This also applies to the Fed… This chart shows Trump’s approval rating (black) and his approval rating on various issues. See the green line, inflation. It’s at the lowest of his presidency, and far lower than everything else, even the economy (brown). Inflation is THE ISSUE. To repeat from above, how is cutting rates and pumping up the stock market going to fix this? https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1996325678099083745 15% of Home Purchases Fell Through in October, Up Slightly from a Year Earlier – Redfin Roughly 53,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements were canceled in October, equal to 15.1% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 14.3% a year earlier… High housing costs and economic uncertainty are giving some buyers cold feet. It’s also a buyer’s market, with home sellers significantly outnumbering homebuyers… San Antonio leads the nation in canceled deals, with over one in five (21%) pending home sales falling through in October. It’s followed by Fort Lauderdale, FL (20%), Fort Worth, TX (19.7%), Las Vegas (19.2%) and Jacksonville, FL (19.2%)… https://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchase-cancellations-october-2025/ Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA rallied sharply on rotational buying and Fed rate cut fever. USZs were +10/32 at the NYSE close on rebound buying. Crypto rallied moderately. Negative aspects of previous session Fangs declined on the relative valuation rotation. Precious metals rebounded moderately while copper soared again. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is Mr. Bond issuing an inflation warning/ultimatum to the Fed? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6840.86 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6862.42; 6810.43 @GlobalMktObserv: US options volume hit 72.8 MILLION contracts on average a day in October, an all-time high. The US options market is on track for the 6th STRAIGHT year of record volume. The volume has now TRIPLED since before the 2020 Crisis period. This is INSANE. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1996316008965943612 Today – Emboldened by the past two session rallies, traders will play for another rally today. Traders will look for Fangs and related trading sardines to rebound. ESZs are +1.75; NQZs are +2.50; Dec AU is +6.80; and USZs are-72/32 at 20:10 ET. Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.963m S&P Index 50-day MA: 6735; 100-day MA: 6586; 150-day MA: 6383; 200-day MA: 6188 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,826; 100-day MA: 45,930; 150-day MA: 44,851; 200-day MA: 43,994 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6849.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6676.47 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6834.35 triggers a sell signal @pepesgrandma: While elections were running globally, Mark Malloch-Brown worked for both SGO Smartmatic and Soros Open Society at the same time. Before becoming Open Society president, he was on its global board. As you see in this 2016 photo. Here’s where it gets tricky. SGO was the holding company for the Sequoia (later dominion) sale. This sale was to remove Smartmatic from US elections. And lo and behold, we now have SGO’s Smartmatic. https://x.com/pepesgrandma/status/1995962722878718073 @realDonaldTrump: Biden just Indicted Henry Cuellar because the Respected Democrat Congressman wouldn’t play Crooked Joe’s Open Border game. He was for Border Control, so they said, “Let’s use the FBI and DOJ to take him out!” This is the way they operate. They’re a bunch of D.C. Thugs, and at some point they will be paying a very big price for what they have done to our Country. CROOKED JOE BIDEN IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY! May 05, 2024 @realDonaldTrump: For years, the Biden Administration weaponized the Justice System against their Political Opponents, and anyone who disagreed with them. One of the clearest examples of this was when Crooked Joe used the FBI and DOJ to “take out” a member of his own Party after Highly Respected Congressman Henry Cuellar bravely spoke out against Open Borders, and the Biden Border “Catastrophe.” Sleepy Joe went after the Congressman, and even the Congressman’s wonderful wife, Imelda, simply for speaking the TRUTH. It is unAmerican and, as I previously stated, the Radical Left Democrats are a complete and total threat to Democracy! They will attack, rob, lie, cheat, destroy, and decimate anyone who dares to oppose their Far Left Agenda, an Agenda that, if left unchecked, will obliterate our magnificent Country. Because of these facts, and others, I am hereby announcing my full and unconditional PARDON of beloved Texas Congressman Henry Cuellar, and Imelda. Henry, I don’t know you, but you can sleep well tonight — Your nightmare is finally over! “It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.” — Thomas Sowell @TheBabylonBee: Minnesota Vikings Change Name to Minnesota Somali Pirates | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOUR TONIGHT
if true, this is shocking!!
New Chilling Theory Reveals ‘Blackmail’ Threat Posed By Afghan Refugees
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Last week, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem revealed that Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the man accused of shooting two National Guard troops in Washington, DC, last week, killing one and leaving the other severely wounded, was likely radicalized in the United States after being allowed in this country under the Biden Administration’s Operation Allies Welcome. But new information revealed the chilling possibility that Taliban blackmail may have driven Lakanwal to gun down National Guard troops, which raises troubling questions about threats no security screening can detect.
Lakanwal, 29, stands accused of first-degree murder after allegedly shooting Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom, 20, and Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, 24, in an ambush-style attack the day before Thanksgiving blocks from the White House. Beckstrom died from her injuries the following day, while Wolfe remains in critical condition. Federal intelligence agencies are now investigating whether a Taliban “hit squad” threatened to murder Lakanwal’s family in Afghanistan if he refused to carry out the assault, which would explain why a man with no criminal record or history of extremism would drive from Washington state, armed only with a .357-caliber revolver, to engage heavily armed military personnel.
Lakanwal’s background makes the alleged attack even more perplexing. He was a GPS tracking specialist with the Afghan Scorpion Forces and worked closely with the CIA in Afghanistan. He supported U.S. forces during Joe Biden’s botched withdrawal in August 2021 and managed to board one of the last flights out, escaping potential retaliation for his cooperation.
“One line of inquiry they are seriously pursuing, according to sources with knowledge of the investigation, is that Lakanwal was made an offer he could not refuse. Either he accepted the mission, or his family in Afghanistan would be beaten, murdered, and possibly beheaded,” reports The Daily Beast. “Lakanwal was a member of the Afghan Scorpion Forces working closely with the CIA as a GPS tracking specialist. He helped the U.S. military escape from Kabul in the shambolic retreat from Afghanistan in August 2021. Between August 14 and 30, more than 123,000 people were airlifted from Kabul Airport. The Afghan fighter joined one of the last flights because he served the United States and due to the danger he would be in if he were left behind.”
It is believed that about 700 members of the Scorpion Forces are still detained in Afghanistan due to their collaboration with the U.S. and its allies, and the Taliban hasn’t forgotten those who helped the West. A military unit called Yarmouk 60 has spent the past five years tracking down and killing Afghans who collaborated with Western forces. In a horrifying example of this retaliation, an Afghan special forces fighter who escaped to Germany saw his family targeted by Yarmouk 60 earlier this year. According to a source, the Taliban “killed his wife and father and four of his children, including two little girls who were beheaded.”
An intelligence source told The Daily Beast that “It is by no means our only line of inquiry,” but added that “most of them have families back home, and if the Taliban cannot get to them, they are making it very clear that they will go after their families.” Sources with knowledge of the investigation suggest Lakanwal may have been given a stark choice: accept the mission or watch his family in Afghanistan be “beaten, murdered, and possibly beheaded.”
The blackmail scenario, if confirmed, represents a national security nightmare that goes far beyond typical vetting failures. It means that Afghan refugees who risked everything to help America defeat terrorist elements could be weaponized through threats against their families still trapped under Taliban rule. Recent reports indicate that more than 5,000 Afghans admitted under the Biden administration have been flagged as national security risks. If the Taliban can activate refugees through family-based coercion, even those with no terrorist ties become potential threats—a vulnerability nearly impossible to prevent through standard security protocols.
END
MARYLAND/BALTIMORE
Billions Spent By One-Party-Rule Maryland Democrats With Little Oversight
The one-party rule of ‘Democratic Kings‘ in Maryland continues to reveal an optically displeasing truth about these leftist activists masquerading as competent politicians, who are anything but, and their epic mismanagement of state finances has only occurred because of limited oversight into their radical agendas.
Fox Baltimore reports that a state legislative audit uncovered major concerns about the oversight of billions of dollars spent by Democratic Gov. Wes Moore and his rudderless leftist allies in Annapolis, who champion everything from failed climate-crisis policies to wokeism to gender identity agendas to social justice and criminal justice reforms, as well as protecting illegal aliens (new voter base) – this is anything but ‘Maryland First’…
“Most recently, a state audit revealed 42 state offices spent a total of $8.5 billion last year with minimal oversight. That audit came on the heels of a State Highway Administration audit detailing $360 million in unauthorized spending for federal projects, and a separate Social Services Administration audit revealing a lack of protections for foster care children in Maryland,” Fox Baltimore wrote in a report.
Taxpayers Protection Alliance president David Williams told Fox Baltimore journalist Jeff Abell, “It’s a problem that almost $9 billion is going to these entities and we just don’t know where the money is going.”
Williams expressed serious concerns over the findings, pointing out, “This is supposed to be a system of checks and balances. We know the checks have gone out but there are no balances to be sure the money is being spent wisely.”
He called for increased oversight, saying, “If you’re receiving taxpayer money, there has to be full accountability, and this is billions of dollars we’re talking about.”
The lack of oversight in Maryland comes as no surprise, given that the state suffers from a disastrous one-party rule of far-left Democrats who care more about upholding the globalist framework of climate-crisis and illegal alien policies.
Moore’s photo next to dark-money-funded NGO emperor Alex Soros makes it all the more clear why he and Maryland Democrats operate with a globalist framework in the first place.
The result of one-party rule has been a ballooning deficit, soaring taxes, a credit rating downgrade, and a continued large-scale exodus of residents fleeing to red states as Maryland quickly loses its charm and is on track to transform into the next “Illinois 2.0.” On top of the financial failures, power grid mismanagement has collided with surging data center demand, sending power bills through the roof.
Another Democrat-run state under scrutiny this week is Minneapolis, where far-left Gov. Tim Walz seemingly ignored his Somali voting base that looted taxpayers in billion-dollar welfare fraud schemes – with some of the funds allegedly ending up in the hands of overseas terror networks.
If Maryland and Minneapolis have oversight problems, imagine what’s happening in all the other Democrat-run states.
END
NEW YORK CITY/MONDAY MORNING
CRAZY!!
“What The F**k Just Happened?” Homeless Man Violently Attacks NYU Student Walking To Class
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 – 06:50 PM
A 20-year-old New York University student was violently assaulted from behind while walking to class on Lower Manhattan’s Broadway on Monday morning.
The alleged victim, Amelia Lewis, posted on TikTok about the broad daylight assault, telling her followers that she was listening to music through headphones shortly before 9:30 a.m. when a man struck her forcefully, grabbed her by the hair, and threw her to the sidewalk before fleeing.
“As I’m walking, like with my headphones on listening to music, I feel something slap me so hard, like literally on my ass,” a visibly distressed Lewis explained. “And I was like, ‘Oh my God, oh that hurts so bad!’ I thought it was like one of my friends. I was gonna turn around and be like, ‘Oh, that hurt so bad, why did you do that?’
“But when I turned around, I saw this old white guy. And like right when I turned around, he grabs my fucking hair like this and, like, yanks me and, like, threw me to the ground. My headphones went fucking flying,” she added while breaking into tears. “And I was like on the ground and I saw him just bolt away down Waverly. And I was like, ‘Holy shit? What the fuck just happened?’”
On Tuesday, NYPD officers arrested 45-year-old James Rizzo, who is homeless, and charged him with assault in the second degree, forcible touching, and persistent sexual abuse stemming from Monday’s alleged attack on Lewis, according to the New York Post. Rizzo has an extensive criminal history that includes sixteen prior arrests, including multiple felony convictions for sexual abuse and forcible touching, as well as a 1997 arrest for murder. Rizzo was released from New York State prison only in September after serving a two-year sentence for his most recent felony conviction of persistent sexual abuse, the Post reports. Rizzo remains in custody pending arraignment.
Lewis branded the violent assault “unacceptable” and suggested that New Yorkers reconsider their support for city leaders with little regard for public safety (too late!).
“I should not be scared to walk to my 9:30 a.m. class,” Lewis said. “This just shows that you really need to reflect on who you’re voting for and supporting right now, because New York needs help and we’re just not getting the help we need.”
An NYU spokesman said the university is “deeply disturbed” by the attack and is providing support to the student while assisting the NYPD’s investigation.
“The University is deeply disturbed by the attack on one of its female students that took place yesterday morning on a Broadway sidewalk. We take this incident very seriously; we are offering support to the student, and NYU’s Campus Safety Department is working with the police in investigating the incident,” the statement read. “The incident was reported to our Department of Campus Safety yesterday afternoon. The department’s victim services unit promptly reached out to the student; they have assisted her in connecting with detectives from the local precinct.”
end
PIPE BOMBER ARRESTED
FBI Arrests Virginia Man In Jan. 6 Pipe Bomb Case
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 10:10 AM
The FBI has arrested a Virginia man nearly five years after pipe bombs were placed at both the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters on Jan. 5, 2021 – the day before the events of Jan. 6.
The suspect is expected to face charges for allegedly planting the devices, which were later deemed to be viable explosives that could have caused “serious injury or death.”
The FBI did not share additional information about the suspect, however MS Now reports that the suspect has been linked to statements that show support for an anarchist ideology.
The bureau has conducted more than 1,000 interviews, reviewed over 39,000 video files, and fielded over 600 tips from the public – yet what led to the arrest was “the same trove of material that had mostly been gathered in 2021 and 2022,” two sources told the outlet – meaning that the Biden administration had the evidence over three years ago.
Video footage and photos of the suspect showed a figure walking around in a hoodie and a face mask. The bombs were quickly disarmed shortly after they were discovered.
“There is a massive cover-up, because the person who planted those pipe bombs — they don’t want you to know who it was, because it’s either a connected anti-Trump insider, or this was an inside job,” Dan Bongino, now the deputy FBI Director, said in November 2024 on his show. “Those bombs were planted there. This was a setup. I have zero doubt.”
Last month a forensic analysis pointed to a former US Capitol Police officer, whose unique gait due to a sports injury suggested that she was a match using a software tool that compared her stride to the suspect’s, Blaze Media reported.
Former FBI Special Agent Kyle Seraphin told Blaze News that, in the days immediately after Jan. 6, he and his team conducted surveillance “one door away” from the residence tied to the female suspect. He says the team was pulled off the assignment without explanation, and requests to interview a person linked to the suspect’s movements were denied.
So the fact that a man was just arrested suggests that while the FBI may have been looking into her, it may have been a dead end – or they’ve arrested the wrong person.
The Blaze report was disputed by Headline USA and journalist Breanna Morello.
The mysterious handling of the bombs drew scrutiny from Congress and the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general. Surveillance footage later released by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) showed Secret Service agents responding slowly after being told a device was found at the DNC. Agents remained in their vehicle eating lunch for roughly two minutes before investigating and allowed pedestrians and cars to pass near the device.
Earlier this year, a House committee report provided new insight into the investigation, highlighting multiple failures by law enforcement to detect the devices and properly secure the scene after their discovery.
END
MINNESOTA
Police ‘Will Not Cooperate With ICE Agents’: Minneapolis Mayor
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025 – 01:05 PM
Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,
As Minnesota anticipates more U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) action in Minnesota—a state where many Somali immigrants are accused of defrauding welfare programs—Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said the city’s law enforcement will not work with federal agents.
“Our police officers are not ICE agents; they will not cooperate with ICE agents,” Frey said at a Dec. 2 news conference.
ICE has been conducting large-scale immigration enforcement operations in a number of cities, sometimes drawing opposition from protesters and from Democratic leaders.
At the news conference, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O‘Hara and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter III emphasized support for law-abiding Somalis and other immigrants who hold jobs and run businesses. People who are fearful of ICE action should inform themselves about their rights, the officials said. O’Hara also said that his officers “absolutely have a duty to intervene” if people’s rights are being violated.
O‘Hara said his officers “do work with federal law enforcement literally every day around violent crime, around people smuggling fentanyl into the country, gang violence, those types of things.” However, O’Hara said, “Federal law enforcement is aware that we absolutely will have nothing to do with anything related to immigration enforcement.”
That has been true for years in the Twin Cities, which are among more than a half-dozen so-called sanctuary cities that the Justice Department has sued over policies that shield illegal immigrants.
The pending lawsuit, coupled with the new public remarks from the Twin Cities’ leaders, reflects increasing tensions between Minnesota and the federal government.
After recent publicity over massive Minnesota welfare-fraud schemes that mostly involve suspects of Somali origin, President Donald Trump announced plans to end “temporary protected status” for Somalis in the North Star State. Minnesota Democrats, including Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Gov. Tim Walz, and Attorney General Keith Ellison, have criticized the president’s actions.
At Trump’s direction, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said she investigated immigration programs in Minnesota; she reported finding that “50 percent of visa applications” and other immigration-related programs were fraudulent.
Noem, speaking during the president’s Dec. 2 Cabinet meeting, did not specify which immigrant groups were allegedly submitting false immigration applications.
During “Operation Twin Shield” earlier this year, ICE, the FBI, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) found 275 cases of suspected immigration fraud in and around Minneapolis and St. Paul, USCIS officials said, calling it a first-of-its-kind operation to detect and deter immigration fraud.
Mayors Defending Somalis Amid Fraud Cases
The two mayors, Frey and Carter, said that the entire Somali community is being unfairly targeted and wrongfully vilified over the actions of a few.
Since 2022, charges have been brought against 78 people, and dozens have been convicted or await trial in the Minnesota-based Feeding Our Future scandal, which involved a nonprofit and its affiliates falsely claiming they provided meals to needy children.
A pair of other welfare-fraud scandals emerging from the region are still developing. Altogether, the fraudulent claims amount to billions of dollars, authorities have said. The fraud was allegedly committed mostly by Somalis who sent much of the stolen money back to their homeland. The Treasury Department is investigating claims that Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab took a percentage of those financial transfers.
Frey and Carter emphasized that most of the estimated 80,000 Somalis living in Minnesota are U.S. citizens. Seventy-eight percent of them live in the Twin Cities, according to Minnesota Compass, making Minneapolis home to America’s largest Somali community. Frey said he is proud of that fact.
On Dec. 3, the day after the Minnesota news conference, a reporter asked Trump to react to Frey’s expression of pride in the Somali community. The president criticized Frey’s comments, adding that Somalis “have taken billions of dollars out of our country” and hail from a crime-ridden nation.
Trump has also stated that Somalis who complain about America are unwanted.
The Epoch Times sought a comment from Frey, who did not immediately respond.
Frey criticized Trump’s stance at the news conference.
“He’s wrong, and we want them here,” Frey said. “Somali people have been an extraordinary benefit … They have started businesses and created jobs. They have added to the cultural fabric of what Minneapolis is. They were welcoming to me when I first came out to Minneapolis.”
‘Zero Tolerance’ for Impeding ICE
Both mayors expressed concern that ICE will make mistakes and snare lawful Somali American citizens once the illegal-immigrant dragnet hits the Twin Cities.
In response to the comments from the Twin Cities’ officials, border czar Tom Homan said, “We’re going to enforce the law, without apology.”
Homan, in a Dec. 2 interview with Fox News, said Noem’s findings and the welfare-fraud crimes are making the Twin Cities a higher priority for ICE.
He didn’t say when increased enforcement operations might begin, or how many agents might be sent there. Homan said he has told police in other sanctuary cities that it is their duty to make their communities safer—and that communities do become safer after ICE removes criminal illegal immigrants and legal immigrants who commit deportable offenses. Homan said it was “shameful” for local law enforcement not to partner with ICE to achieve that common goal.
He urged non-cooperative police to “stand aside” and allow ICE to operate. Otherwise, the Justice Department will show “zero tolerance” and will prosecute anyone who impedes ICE.
O’Hara, the police chief, said his officers stay out of immigration issues.
“We don’t provide information to federal immigration authorities; we don’t ask people about their immigration status,” he said at the news conference.
Those actions align with a city ordinance that forbids city employees from asking people about their citizenship or immigration status. The local law also prohibits city workers from using “any knowledge of [a resident’s] status to enforce immigration laws,” the Minneapolis government website states.
Within days, Minneapolis officers will be receiving updated guidance for handling immigration-related matters, the police chief said, incorporating “feedback from community and community-based organizations.”
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
