DEC 8/T.A.S. INDUCED RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $23.40 TO $4189.10//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.48 TO $58.02//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $4.25 TO $1646.50 BUT PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $8.40//GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM JOHN RUBINO: 2 COMMENTARIES AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD//AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE: //BIS REPORTS ITS GOLD SWAMPS RETREATED BY 15 TONNES TO 39 TONNES//CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES//JAPAN HAS A 7.2 EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHERN JAPAN//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: TWO VIDEOS COURTESY IF ISRAEL TBN//COVID INJURY REPORTS: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//USA DATA RELEASES//USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES//AI COMMENTARIES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
072 C GOLDMAN 1 092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 43 099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 17 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 4 132 C SG AMERICAS 3 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 495 332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 150 363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 62 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 51 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 139 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1 690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 3 709 C BARCLAYS 4 732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 4 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 880 H CITIGROUP 6 905 C ADM 11
TOTAL: 498 498 MONTH TO DATE: 27,151
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 139/498
DECEMBER
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 498 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 49800 OZ or 1.5489 TONNES
total notices so far: 27,151 contracts for 2,715,100 OR 84.4510 tonnes)
FOR DEC
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SILVER NOTICES: 64 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.320 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 10,259 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 51.295 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.48 AT THE SLV:
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 35.447 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 512.007. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 748 CONTRACTS TO 150,956,AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $1.39 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING. THE LONG SPECULATORS ARE NOW QUITE STICKY AS THEY REFUSE TO BE RINSED. THE FRBNY CONTINUES TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY PAPER AS THEY TRY TO DRIVE THE PRICE SOUTHBOUND WITH THE HELP OF HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS AND T.A.S. SPREADERS BUT THE SPECULATORS AT THIS LOW LEVEL OF OI COMEX REMAIN STOIC AS THEY PAY NO ATTENTION TO ANY FALL IN PRICE. YOU CAN SEE THE RESULT OF THIS AS SILVER ZOOMED IN PRICE ON FRIDAY
WE HAVE REVERTED BACK TO NORMAL WITH THE SPECS NOW GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND THE BANKER (FRBNY) ON THE SHORT SIDE AND PROVIDING THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. IT IS OUR SILVER SPECULATORS THAT WERE PILING INTO THE SILVER COMEX WITH RECKLACE ABANDON. WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, AND NOW TRYING TO SURPASS OUR LAST MAJOR HURDLE OF $50.00 SILVER AGAIN. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 195 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED 553 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD LITTLE IF ANY LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING AS WE INDICATE THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE /// THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $50.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE AS THE SPECS PILED INTO THE SILVER ARENA. . THE PRICE FINISHED STILLQUITE A BIT ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $50.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE CLOSING AT $58.50 UP $1.39 . WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS AT A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1275 T.A.S. CONTRACTS (BUT STILL DOWN FROM THE MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 5,000 PLUS CONTRACT ISSUANCE DURING NOVEMBER)!!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING AGAIN THE 50.00 DOLLAR MARK!!. THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 50.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 553 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR MEGA HUGE SIZED 1275 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//RAID AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS 195 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.39. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE SPECULATOR LONGS REMAIN STOIC ON THE PRICE FALL AS EASTERN CENTRAL BANKER WENT TO THE LONG SIDE. THEY WILL TENDER FOR THE BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL SILVER. THUS ON A NET BASIS WE LOST NO SPECULATORS
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 1275 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.390 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 55.490 MILLION OZ//
WE HAD:
/ GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS+// A 553 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1275 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A STRONG 250 CONTRACTS!!!!!
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC.. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV.
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAY(S), total 3012 contracts: OR 15.060 MILLION OZ (430 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 15.060 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
AN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 15.060 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 748 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.39 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE : 553 ISSUED FOR MARCH, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
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LAST 9 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES:
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 0.390 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP // STANDING ADVANCES TO 55.490 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (1275) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!!
WE HAD 64 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.320 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON A MASSIVE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 724 OI CONTRACTS DOWN TO 426,860 OI AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE STILL A RELATIVELY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE AND CRIMINAL 3596 CONTRACTS // MEGA HUGE GOVERNMENT REMOVALS//
WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI (724 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF 9.30 IN PRICE// THURSDAY///.
LAST 8 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY THROUGH TO NOVEMBER/DECEMBER)
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.6252 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 4.067 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 87.486 TONNES/
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING DECEMBER GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 564 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 426,860 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A SMALL COMEX OI WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD.//NOW DIFFICULT TO FLEECE SPECS.
SILVER ALSO HAS A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 150,956 CONTRACTS//ALSO DIFFICULT TO FLEECE SPEC LONGS.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF CONTRACTS WITH 1288 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 564 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1288 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED AND CRIMINAL 3408 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON.
GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY ROSE BY $9.30
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(564) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 724 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES:1288 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE AND WILL REMAIN STOIC . ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR DEC AT 83.813 TONNES OF NORMAL DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR 0.6232 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING OF 4.067 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 87.486 TONNES
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 87.486 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 87.486 TONNES OF GOLD
3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (BUT CONSIDERABLE GOVT LIQUIDATION // BUT STRONG LOSS OF EQUITY SHARES/DEC 5) AS WE HAD 1)A $9.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN AND WE HAD 2) NEWBIE SPEC SHORTS GETTING LIQUIFIED BUT ON A NET BASIS, THE SPECS GAINED IN NUMBERS + EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS WERE PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1288 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND YET A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN DECEMBER (87.486 TONNES). WE HAD SPECULATOR LONGS REMAINING STOIC FRIDAY AS THEY PILED INTO GOLD //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL WITH THE RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ 5) V) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (564)
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NDEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 12,421 CONTRACTS OR 1,242,100 OZ OR 38.634 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1774 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 38.634 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 38.634 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 38.634 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 498 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,290 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 553 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 553 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 414 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 553 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 195 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $1.39 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.975 MILLION PAPER OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS MONDAY MORNING:
ASIA RESULTS; MONDAY DEC 8
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.27 POINTS OR 0.54%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1.25%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 67.63 PTS OR 0.13% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0543
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0663/ Oil DOWN TO 59.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 63.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0543 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 724 CONTRACTS TO 426,860 OI WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.95 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (564). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY (WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED ON NOV 30). .. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE MASSIVE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED FRIDAY NIGHT AT 498 NOTICES FOR 49800 OZ (1.5489 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ARE STANDING FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GOLD FOR DECEMBER DELIVERIES. YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI HAS STILL A VERY LOW AT 430,456 AND THESE GUYS ARE VERY STICKY AND ITS OI IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY SO AGAIN THEY PROVIDE A SOME FODDER FOR OUR CROOKS TO RAID!!
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1288 CONTRACTS (OR 4.00 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 6 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 11 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 11 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT TO CREATE A SHORTFALL OF 54 TONNES. THE NOVEMBER BIS REPORT SHOWED THAT THE FRBNY LOWERED ITS SHORTFALL BY 15 TONNES AND THUS 39 TONNES REMAIN TO BE SOMEHOW COVERED.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1288 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3,408 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WENT UP CONSIDERABLY TODAY, FRIDAY DEC 5. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THUS A FORTHCOMING RAID DURING THIS WEEK.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1586 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 3.9084 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.849 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 54 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 564 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 564 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /FEB 564 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 564 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 54 TONNES
WE HAD :
ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED 3,408 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP FRIDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING GOOD GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..ENOUGH FODDER FOR A RAID//
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR GOLD LAST 12 MONTHS OF 2025
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1586 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 3.9084 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.849 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
AN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $9.30/ /)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY WITH THE PRICE GAIN// COMEX TRADING//.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN STOIC//THEY REFUSED TO BE RINSED. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
SAYURDAY MORNING//FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/ SAYURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 51 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5100 OZ OR .1586 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 3.9084 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 86.849 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.30
WE HAD A HUGE 3596 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1288 CONTRACTS OR 128,800 OZ OR 4.00 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,151 notices 2,715,100 0z 84.4510 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
i) entry
i) Into Loomis
80,313.1198 oz (1498 kilobars)
customer withdrawals:
1 entries
i) Out of Manfra: 97,636.710 oz (3.03 tonnes)
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 1 customer to dealer
a) Brinks 429,660.648 oz
(13.364 tonnes)
huge adjustment
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 1474 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 289 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 490 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 201 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 20,100 OZ OR 0.6252 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TO OUR PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS .THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES HUGELY TO 87.486 TONNES
JANUARY GAINED 60 CONTRACTS UP TO 2681
FEB LOST 1127 CONTRACTS UP TO 320,593 CONTRACTS
We had 498 contracts filed for today representing 49,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 498 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer an 139 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,131 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 1474 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (498 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,812,700 OZ OR 87.486 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (27151 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1474 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (498)x 100 oz) which equals 2,812,700 OR 87.486 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 87.486 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 87.486 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume FRIDAY confirmed 225,349 contracts fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,010,707.549 oz 62.54 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,713,038.530 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 18,462,563.403or 574.263 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,749,474.627 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 16,451,856oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
511.722 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
THE DEC. 2025 SILVER CONTRACTS
DEC 8 2025
INITIAL/
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) out of CNT 321,138.860 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 911,089.360 oz
total withdrawal 1,232,238.320 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
3 entries
i) Into CNT 2032.900 oz ii) Into Loomis: 300,548.980 oz iii) Into Delaware: 2038.200 total deposit: 304,621.080 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
64 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.320 million OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
839 contracts (4.195 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
10,259 Contracts (51.295 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
please note: lack of any silver coming in or leaving the comex
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
3 entries
i) Into CNT 2032.900 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 300,548.980 oz
iii) Into Delaware: 2038.200
total deposit: 304,621.080 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) out of CNT 321,138.860 oz ii) Out of JPMorgan 911,089.360 oz
total withdrawal 1,232,238.320 oz
adjustments:
0 entries
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 136.914MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 456.143Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 903 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 25 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 103 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 78 CONTRACTS OR 0.390 MILLION OZ
JANUARY LOST 21 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3931 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 53 CONTRACTS UP TO 1109 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 64 or 0.320 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 116,712 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,259 X5,000 oz = 51.295 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (903) AND the number of notices served upon today (64 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (10,259) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(903) minus number of notices served upon today (64)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 55.490 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 55.490 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 136.914. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 196.188/456.143million. 42.99%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.58 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1050.58 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.497 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.007 MILLION OZ //
DEC 5/WITH SILVER UP 0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.448 MILLION OZ //
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
Silver is in the news lately, as it smashes old records and (apparently) wreaks havoc in metals exchanges.
But, as usual in global finance, many of the details range from technical to incomprehensible. So here’s an article from Katusa Research that explains some of silver’s recent action and why it’s every bit as bullish as it sounds.
If you tried to trade silver last Thursday night, you saw something terrifying.
Nothing.
For 11 agonizing hours, the CME Group (the world’s largest derivatives exchange) went dark. Gold, oil, Treasury bonds, and crucially, Silver… all frozen.
The “official” story will tell you it was a cooling system failure at the CyrusOne data center in Chicago.
Maybe that’s true.
But in my 20 years in this business, I’ve learned that there are no coincidences when money this big is on the line.
Because the moment the screens flickered back on Friday morning… Silver violently repriced to a new all-time high above $55.
The reaction was the story. The system blinked and when it opened its eyes, the truth was staring it in the face.
We are witnessing a market that is primed to break on contact. The paper market is glitching because the physical reality underneath is shifting tectonically.
Here is what’s happening.
The “China Drain” is Real
While Western traders were staring at blank screens in Chicago, the real alarm bells were ringing in Shanghai well before that.
For the last year, we have tracked a massive migration of physical metal from West to East. But that flow reached a critical breaking point.
Shanghai silver inventories have just collapsed to decade lows.
Look at this chart. It is arguably the most important graphic in the commodities market right now:
The supply squeeze in China keeps tightening. This is critical because China is the epicenter of industrial demand.
When their warehouses go empty, they don’t just stop buying. They bid. And they bid high.
Now, you might have seen a conflicting headline recently. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported that London silver vaults actually rose by 6.8% in October to 26,255 tonnes.
The bears cheered. “See?” they said. “There is plenty of silver.”
They’re wrong. That inflow isn’t new mining supply.
It’s a reversal of the “London Squeeze,” where earlier tightness forced metal onto COMEX to plug holes, creating distortions. That metal was shuffled around to give the market breathing room, but it is not relief.
It’s a shell game. And the shells are running out.
The “London Loophole” is Closing
While the computers were down in Chicago, the real panic was happening 4,000 miles away in London.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults, which is the physical backstop for the entire global silver trade, are running on fumes.
We are seeing reports that silver lease rates (the cost to borrow physical metal) have spiked.
It looked like a dead heartbeat through 2024, barely above zero. They finally twitched in early 2025, stayed under 2% until June, then erupted to ~35% in October.
The spike cooled, but the pulse is rising again and pushing back toward 6%.
In plain English? There’s no metal left.
The bullion banks are desperate. They are scrambling to find bars to deliver against paper contracts. And for the first time in history, the physical owners aren’t selling. They’re hoarding.
The Electro Dollar Age and the AI Energy Vortex
Why is the metal disappearing?
It’s not just coins and bullion stackers. It’s a new, voracious beast we call the “AI Energy Complex.”
You already know about the solar boom. But here is what the mainstream financial press missed: AI Servers use significantly more silver than traditional servers.
According to data circulating from the Silver Institute and SMM (Shanghai Metals Market),
AI servers require 2 to 3 times more silver than standard servers due to higher power density and complex cooling connectors.
Every time Big Tech builds a new data center, they are locking away millions of ounces of silver into circuit boards and high-performance connectors.
We are in the Fifth Consecutive Year of a structural deficit.
Demand: Exploding (Solar + AI + EVs)
Supply: Flat (Mine production is stagnant between 810M – 830M oz)
Inventory: Critical (London is empty)
Silver Can’t Bank on the Banks’ Forecast
Earlier this year, the biggest banks on Wall Street told you to stay away.
J.P. Morgan predicted silver would average just $36 in 2025.
And HSBC had to scramble in October to raise their forecast to $44.50 for 2026.
They missed the fundamental shift. They looked at silver as just a “monetary metal” that moves with interest rates. They forgot that it is the indispensable metal of the digital age.
You cannot have ChatGPT, solar farms, or EV batteries without silver.
That CME “glitch” was a warning shot. We smashed through the psychological $50 barrier. $55 is the new reality and the ceiling just became unlimited.
Not to mention, the technicals in this market are starting to look incredibly “sexy”.
The “glitch” was the system blinking. The data shows the plumbing is under maximum stress.
Most countries’ sovereign bond markets have been pretty tame lately. Here, for instance, is the yield on US Treasury notes:
But it’s different in Japan, where money is getting dramatically tighter:
Normally, when the world is moving in one direction and a single country breaks ranks, it can be dismissed as a temporary glitch that will disappear as markets work themselves out.
But maybe not this time. Japan’s mountain of government debt is forcing it to raise interest rates. And the result is potentially huge, because of something called the “yen carry trade.” Here’s a quick overview:
(Discovery Alert) – The yen carry trade operates through a relatively straightforward mechanism that has generated substantial profits for institutional and retail investors alike. Market participants borrow Japanese yen at near-zero interest rates, convert these funds to foreign currencies, and invest in assets offering superior returns. The profit emerges from the interest rate differential between Japan’s ultra-low borrowing costs and higher yields available in US equities, European bonds, emerging market securities, and global real estate ventures.
This strategy’s effectiveness depends on two fundamental market conditions: Japan maintaining its accommodative monetary policy stance and yen exchange rates remaining stable or depreciating against major currencies. For three decades, these assumptions proved remarkably durable, enabling trillions of dollars in capital flows that supported asset price appreciation worldwide.
The Three-Decade Foundation That Built Global Markets
Japan’s commitment to ultra-low interest rates created an unprecedented source of cheap funding that institutional investors utilised to amplify returns across asset classes. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate near zero percent for approximately thirty years, with periods of negative interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis. This policy stance effectively subsidised global risk-taking by providing virtually free capital to sophisticated market participants.
The carry trade mechanism operated as a “silent money printer” that channelled Japanese savings into worldwide investments without drawing significant regulatory attention or public scrutiny. Unlike quantitative easing programmes that generated substantial political debate, carry trades functioned through private market transactions that escaped broader policy discussions despite their systemic importance.
The Great Unwind
As Japanese interest rates rise, the yen carry trade becomes unprofitable, forcing the unwind of trillions of dollars of leveraged “investments”. And just like that, the steady tailwind of the past three decades becomes a headwind. Not only in the US but globally across multiple asset classes. More from the above article:
The Mathematics of Carry Trade Destruction
When Japanese interest rates rise while foreign asset values simultaneously decline, carry trades encounter a devastating double impact. Borrowing costs increase precisely when investment returns deteriorate, creating negative carry scenarios that force rapid position liquidation. Furthermore, the yen’s safe-haven status is shattering as global market dynamics shift, with the currency’s concurrent strengthening compounding these losses as investors must repay yen-denominated obligations with an appreciating currency.
This mathematical relationship explains why relatively modest Japanese rate increases can trigger disproportionate market disruptions. Leverage amplifies both profits during favourable conditions and losses when market dynamics reverse. Institutional investors who utilised 10:1 or 20:1 leverage ratios to enhance carry trade returns face magnified losses when positions move against them, contributing to the current yen carry trade collapse.
Is Bitcoin the First Domino?
So far, the most notable case of momentum reversal has been bitcoin, which fell from $120 to $90 in less than a month:
Digital assets are sensitive to global liquidity, volatility across the crypto universe is likely in 2026.
But real estate, government bonds, and tech stocks also require liquidity, so expect the US and Europe to aggressively ease monetary policy to replace those carry trade trillions. The result: asset price volatility and currency depreciation. All roads, these days, seem to lead back to gold and silver.
I’ll leave you with a video that goes into a little more detail:
We can now recognise a path of financial and economic developments leading to the end of fiat currencies. We address what will happen unless and until a sound replacement is found.
Summary
The big surprise will be high inflation in 2026—2027, threatening to get out of control entirely. Almost no one today expects it. Government and central bank economists will misdiagnose it as usual, not appreciating that it reflects the consequences of a combination of accelerating QE and loss of faith in the value of the dollar by its foreign holders and its domestic users. Instead, the usual bogeymen will be blamed: greedy businessmen, foreign enemies, and domestic hoarders of consumable goods. Price controls will be implemented.
Instead, we will be witnessing the dollar-based financial credit bubble imploding from massive overvaluations while bond yields soar. Unless the US government finds a politically creditable way of stopping the slide, dollars and associated fiat currencies will descend into worthlessness.
The recent rise in gold prices is only just beginning to discount this outcome. It is a warning not to be ignored!
Introduction
Soaring gold prices tell us that the fiat currency system is in deep trouble. The days when politicians buy votes by borrowing are running out. Stock prices have been inflated by a credit bubble, despite persistently high bond yields. G7 government debt to GDPs are typically 100%, or more. Nevertheless, politicians continue their spendthrift ways.
The most dangerous of the lot is President Trump, an ex-property mogul for whom interest rates and borrowing costs should be minimal. He’s about to appoint someone to chair the Fed who will undoubtedly share his view. Trump is doubly dangerous because the US dollar is the one currency to which all others defer: the fiat dollar goes, and so do the rest.
Big cracks in the financial system are beginning to appear. The Fed is abandoning quantitative tightening in favour of injecting liquidity into markets. The methods used are suppression of interest rates and the return of quantitative easing. The inflation target is being abandoned while CPI inflation is still 150% of the Fed’s 2% target.
Gold, silver, and a raft of commodities are starting to rise in value in a way which reflects declining confidence in the value of the Fed’s dollar. It’s purchasing power is under attack, yet the consensus among economists and the financial community is that the outlook is stable enough to justify further cuts in interest rates. But without radical changes, the purchasing power of the dollar is bound to continue its decline, which is why bond yields remain persistently high and are set to go higher.
The principal factor driving bond yields higher is the growing threat of a debt trap. Broadly, the sustainability of debt depends on the borrower ultimately having the means to service it. International and domestic creditors will assess whether the tax base is growing sufficiently to do so. With mounting evidence of a stagnating economy being telegraphed by the Fed abandoning its inflation mandate to support it, the tax base is threatening to decline.
When a debt trap is triggered, it drives bond yields higher. It becomes a doom-loop whereby higher rates make the debt even less attractive, until a debtor government grasps the nettle of higher taxes, lower spending and a budget surplus to pay down debt instead of increasing it.
Until then, we know that the entire fiat currency system based on the US dollar is ending in a sea of debt which cannot be serviced let alone repaid. The yield on US government debt remains persistently high, having broken the long-term downtrend which was in place for the last forty years. It is now set to go significantly higher, as the chart below illustrates. It is all about loss of confidence in the currency in which the debt is denominated.
At over $38 trillion outstanding, US government debt is becoming unsustainable and economically unserviceable, which will be reflected in significantly higher bond yields to compensate for debasement risk. Indeed, already other G7 government bond markets are reflecting this trend, notably Japan:
With its government debt to GDP of 235% and the Bank of Japan owning over half of it, the sins of excessive debt are catching up. Markets are clearly reassessing lending risk. Furthermore, the super-low bond yields of the past means that Japan’s pension funds and insurance companies invested heavily in US Treasuries. The yield differential is now closing, which with currency risk is likely to lead these institutions to sell US treasuries in favour of their own government debt.
The near certainty of two further rate increases by the JGB while the Fed reduces its funds rate will make this almost certain and also kill the carry trade, whereby US domestic and offshore hedge funds initiate long positions in US Treasuries by borrowing cheap yen and euros.
With respect to the ending of the financial credit bubble, this is the first point to be made about the prospects for US Treasury yields: they are going to go higher along the yield curve.
The second point is the consequences for equity markets. The other side of the US dollar’s debt bubble is credit, large amounts of which are applied to the purchase of non-bond financial assets. Consequently, equity valuations relative to bonds have become disproportionately expensive.
The valuation disparity is already at an historic extreme, indicated by the double-arrow on the right. This is an equity bubble like no other, and when it becomes apparent that bond yields are due to rise again, the bubble is bound to burst.
The pathway to decline
As noted above, the dollar is the most important of the fiat currencies, and its future determines that of the others. Furthermore, the US stock market is mostly driven by the credit bubble. Not only has it become highly leveraged through margin lending by brokers, not only have hedge funds and other institutions leveraged their positions by going directly to the banks, but in addition foreign investors have an unprecedented $44.09 trillion invested in dollars and underlying financial investments (September UST TIC figures). Of that total, $21.26 trillion is in US equities and $7.83 is in US Treasuries with over one year to maturity.
Clearly, when bond yields rise and the equity bubble bursts, there will be massive selling of US treasuries, equities, and the US dollar by foreign investors. The extent to which it is offset by US selling of foreign investments in their currencies is minor, because foreign equities are priced in US$ ADRs, and lending to foreign creditors is nearly always in dollars.
The increasing risk of this outcome and its growing proximity is what gold is telling us. Not only will the nominal values of bonds and equities face sharp declines, but so will the international purchasing power of unwanted dollars. It will come as an unexpected shock in 2026 in the form of rising consumer prices driven by higher dollar-prices for commodities and imported goods. But before that becomes obvious, the speed of the asset valuation collapse is set to deliver a collateral crisis as stock leverage is unwound and banks attempt to reduce their asset exposure to protect their own capital.
The lack or even contraction of bank credit coupled with foreign liquidation of financial assets will drive up bond yields. Zombie corporations will face insolvency, and the US government with its agencies will be faced with the task of reflating sufficiently to save the entire financial system and the economy.
This will be done through a new round of quantitative easing, for which the groundwork is already in place. The inflationary expansion of the currency and bank reserves will reflect the Fed’s purchases of not just US treasuries, but agency debt to soften the blow on mortgage rates. It will also be extended to corporate debt to protect those unwise enough to have indulged in financial leverage. These are the conditions which will rapidly undermine the dollar’s credibility and value as a currency.
A worrying precedent
A similar situation happened in Germany in 1921. Following the initial post-war debasement of the reichsmark, in February 1920 the currency stabilised. Between that date and November 1921, the stock market boomed, rising some 300%. But from July that year, the gold price in reichsmarks began to rise, the pace accelerating from RM4,000 in July 1921 to over RM14,000 in November.
Today’s bull market has been running longer, but the current boom in equities commenced after a selloff last March, having risen nearly 40% since. But from August gold began to rise sharply, appearing to front-run an impending credit bubble collapse in the same manner as it anticipated Germany’s stock market crisis in late-1921.
While Rudolf Havenstein as the Reichsbank’s president was blamed by modern commentators for Germany’s hyperinflation, they have yet to appreciate the similarity of political pressures facing the Fed and US Treasury today. They have no mandate other than to support financial asset values, the entire banking system, and to ensure that derivatives do not lead to counterparty risk spreading out of control. They are staffed with economists whose comprehension of credit is certainly no better than that of Havenstein and his colleagues a century ago: the formers’ understanding of inflation is restricted to the effects on prices.
It was Karl Helfferich as finance minister who was identified by Jens Parsson[i] as “the chief architect of Germany’s economic disaster”. Yet, as Parsson went on to say,
“Helfferich was neither a fool nor a political hack. To the contrary he was a brilliant monetary theorist whose stature was compared with some validity to that of Lord Keynes. His ponderous treatise on money, Das Geld, translated, was still in print in the United states as late as 1973, and a reading of his book is convincing proof of Helfferich’s intellectual capabilities. Ironically enough, after contributing the most to the destruction of the mark Helfferich also made the principle theoretical contributions to the formation of the miraculous Rentenmark plan which ended the inflation. As his book demonstrates, Helfferich knew perfectly well the relationship between money creation and price inflation; but, he said in substance, under the circumstances in Germany nothing could be done about it.”[ii]
From this history we can not only deduce that irrespective of the combined economic talents of a finance minister and the head of the central bank, politics determine outcomes. But also, after 54 years of a fiat currency environment today compared with the nine-year lifespan of the reichsmark, there is a far higher level of economic ignorance today when it comes to preventing a fiat dollar collapse.
Conclusion
Germany’s monetary collapse took the reichsmark from 90 to the gold ounce before 1914 to 90 trillion in November 1923. The collapse in its purchasing power accelerated tenfold from July 1922 by the following November, and two-hundredfold by June 1923, eventually quadrupling each week. A similar outcome for today’s dollar might be inconceivable but is not impossible. And it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how it can be avoided.
For the sake of everyone, not just those who use dollars but those depending upon the value in all fiat currencies, we must hope that unlike the politicians in 1920s’ Germany today’s politicians succeed in preventing a total collapse of today’s fiat currencies. But there is no evidence that this will be the case.
Until the collapse is stopped and in case it is not, one’s working assumption should be that the dollar faces a similar fate to that of the reichsmark. How long it will take cannot be known until it is well underway. But the starting point will be the crisis set off by a combination of rising bond yields and the bursting of the stock market bubble. It will then not be too late for those who have been unwise enough not to get out of credit already, which includes fiat currencies, and to get into gold. But by then, much personal wealth will already have been destroyed.
Robert Lambourne: Bank of England increasingly looks like headquarters of gold-market rigging
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2025-12-08 13:34 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne Monday, December 8, 2025
Developments this year have strengthened suspicions that the Bank of England is complicit in gold price suppression, especially developments with the custody of the United Kingdom’s reserves of foreign exchange and gold held in the government’s Exchange Equalisation Account.
The audited annual report of the EEA for the year to March 31, 2025, still has not been published. It is usually published in July. This delay was disclosed by GATA in a dispatch on October 7:
Normally the UK Treasury publishes an audited annual report of the EEA in July. So the report is now eight months late. A company listed on a major stock exchange almost certainly would experience severe share price and regulatory pressure to explain such a delay.
In late August this writer contacted the Treasury via his member of Parliament to request an explanation for the delay and a likely publication date. Getting a response took more than five weeks and it offered no nothing other than to suggest that certain audit procedures needed to be completed. Neither was any likely date provided for publication of the annual report.
It’s not clear why a five-week delay was needed to say so little.
Hence there appears to be a problem with obtaining approval of the accounts from an independent auditor.
Indeed, there are many potential problems that might affect the judgment of an independent auditor of the EEA.
The delay might be connected to the rush to get gold to the United States shortly after the Trump administration took office, amid fears that tariffs could be imposed on U.S. gold imports.
Early this year it was widely reported that the Bank of England was unable to get gold out of its vaults promptly. In a meeting with journalists February 6 the following statement about gold delivery delays this following statement was made by the bank’s deputy governor, Dave Ramsden:
“Gold is a physical asset, so there are real logistical constraints and security constraints. Getting into the bank for me this morning was a bit trickier because there was a lorry in the bullion yard. … It takes time and the stuff is also quite heavy. … We’ve got slots for all the people who currently want to get their gold” but “if you were coming in new to us, you might have to wait a bit longer because all the existing slots are booked up”:
During the second, third, and fourth quarters this year there was a substantial increase in the use of the “exchange for risk” mechanism on the New York Commodities Exchange. This is a transaction where a futures contract is exchanged for an over-the-counter derivative, such as a swap. GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, has speculated that one of the major users of the mechanism is the Bank of England, pursuing an unconventional way to acquire physical gold.
Now is it really just a coincidence that the annual report of the UK’s EEA is still not published when the Bank of England was not only unable to remove gold from its vaults promptly but, in need of real metal, could be responsible for the increased volume of “exchange for risk” transactions on the Comex in recent months?
In the absence of more information from the UK Treasury, this question remains open, and the problem causing the delay in publishing the annual report of the EEA, whatever it is, seems to be getting more serious.
The difficulties recently experienced by the Bank of England prompted this writer to review previous disclosures concerning the role of the bank as a gold custodian and its involvement with other gold-related matters.
A report by Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly in December 2022 was headlined: “Has GLD Been Failing to Disclose Gold Held at BoE in 2022?”:
Manly’s report included a reference to the bank’s serving as a sub-custodian of GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest gold exchange-traded fund.
Manly also noted that JP Morgan was becoming a custodian for GLD along with HSBC. He wrote that the Bank of England held 70 tonnes of GLD gold in 2020 and that subsequent disclosures by GLD did not include any details on how much of its gold (which now is said to total 1,010 tonnes) is warehoused by the Bank of England. Apparently, under U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regulations this detail should have been disclosed.
Those who follow GATA dispatches know that each month we publish an estimate of gold swaps arranged by the BIS, which in the absence of contrary evidence are assumed to be swaps of gold deposited in exchange-traded funds and held in gold sight accounts at the Federal Reserve. It now seems possible that the Bank of England is both a recipient of some swapped gold and the source of gold physically too as a sub-custodian of HSBC or JP Morgan, acting as the custodians for GLD.
The Bank of England has been a sub-custodian of GLD’s gold since at least 2014 and the bank may have been a recipient of the gold as far back as 2009, when the current use of gold swaps began.
A GATA dispatch report cited press coverage of the first use of gold swaps by the Bank for International Settlements, which seems to be the only time the BIS has discussed the swaps with a news organization:
So it is possible that the Bank of England’s seemingly trying to acquire physical gold via the “exchange for risk” mechanism at the Comex is even more complicated than just squaring the books for the Exchange Equalisation Account. Maybe the bank has leased out gold supposedly “owned” by both GLD and the UK government.
It seems doubtful that the Bank of England would be doing things like this without the explicit endorsement of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
After recent review of Manly’s report, this writer began investigating whether the Bank of England is a sub-custodian of any other exchange-traded fund or other funds involved with precious metals.
The bank appears as a sub-custodian for at least four other exchange-traded bullion products (and one closed-end trust) besides GLD. No other major central bank has been identified as a sub-custodian. The other funds listing the Bank of England as a sub-custodian are:
1) iShares Gold Trust (IAU). JP Morgan lists the Bank of England with the identical clause used for GLD.
2) iShares Silver Trust (SLV). This fund uses the same custody agreement template. The Bank of England appears alongside Scotia Bank, Deutschebank, ICBC-Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, and UBS.
3) Granite Shares Gold Trust (BAR). Its gold custodian is ICBC Standard Chartered. The Bank of England is listed as a permitted sub-custodian.
4) Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU). The gold custodian here is JP Morgan. The Bank of England is named in Paragraph 8.1.
5) Sprott Physical Gold Trust (closed-end, TSX: PHYS). The Bank of England is cited as a sub-custodian “from time to time” with no tonnage disclosed.
All five funds use virtually the same paragraph about custodianship, copied from the London Bullion Market Association model custody agreement.
From the iShares Silver Trust custodian information it appears that the Bank of England also may be storing physical silver, although the LBMA says the bank does not store physical silver. So maybe the bank’s sub-custodian role for the fund is just a contingency matter.
Has any other central bank ever been publicly named as a sub-custodian for gold and silver exchange-traded funds?
An extensive search of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR (8-K, S-1, 10-K) filings for every U.S.-listed bullion ETF (IAU, SLV, BAR, SGOL, AAAU, OUNZ, GLDM, PHYS, PSLV, SGLN, etc.) finds no reference to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Banque de France, Bundesbank, Swiss National Bank, Banca d’Italia, European Central Bank, People’s Bank of China, Bank of Canada, Riksbank, the Austrian Mint, and other institutions.
Among central banks only the Bank of England appears in filed agreements as custodians or sub-custodians. All other custodians are commercial LBMA members (Scotiabank, Deutschebank, ICBC-Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, UBS, HSBC, Brinks, Malca-Amit, and Loomis).
For some years GATA has reported suspicions that BIS gold swaps represent double-counted gold where at least two parties considered that they had good title to the same metal. The problems that the Bank of England and UK Treasury are having — with finalizing the audited annual report of the EEA and the delays shipping out gold while possibly trying to buy gold via the Comex — and then the bank’s recently recalled role as a sub-custodian to various investment funds — raise concerns that the Bank of England may be involved in some way as both a recipient of swapped gold and as the physical source of that gold as well.
In any case it is reasonable to wonder exactly what the Bank of England is doing with the gold held in the EEA and the gold of others, and why it is doing it. Does this include gold price control or suppression?
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the Bank for International Settlements and U.S. government debt.
* * *
BIS gold swaps fall from 54 tonnes in Oct. to 39 in Nov.
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-12-06 23:47 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:47p ET Saturday, December 6, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA consultant Robert Lambourne reported today that gold swaps undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks and a broker for them in the gold market, fell markedly in November, from 54 tonnes in October to 39 tonnes.
The information can be calculated from the bank’s monthly statement of account for November, published this week:
The decline in swaps implies that the BIS was not recruited to intervene as much in the gold market in November on behalf of its member central banks and that there continues to be little interest among them in incurring more gold liabilities or in letting their metal get far from home.
— provides some history on the swap transactions and their volatility since the bank in 2010 adjusted its public accounting to make it possible for its gold swaps to be calculated, though the swaps are still not reported plainly by the bank.
As recently as January 2022 the bank’s swaps exceeded 500 tonnes but they have fallen sharply since, indicating a change of policy toward or outlook on gold, a trend that seems to have correlated with increasing central bank acquisitions and repatriations, along with gold’s rising price.
Nevertheless, the BIS has a well-placed confidence that no mainstream financial news organization will ever ask it to explain the purposes of the swaps and to identify the parties to them, lest gold cease being the immensely powerful secret knowledge of the financial universe.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Africa remains full of rich countries insisting on being poor
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-12-06 23:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Gold to Oil: 8 African Countries Sitting on Untapped Natural Resources
By Olamilekan Okebiorun Business Insider, New York Friday, December 5, 2025
Africa is home to some of the world’s richest natural resources, yet many of its reserves remain largely untapped.
From bauxite and copper to gold, uranium, and oil, these resources hold enormous potential to transform economies, attract foreign investment, and position the continent as a key player in the global supply of minerals and energy.
Some African nations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa are globally recognised for their resource production.Hhowever, several other countries are sitting on significant wealth that has yet to be fully exploited.
According to data from World Population Review 2025, Africa’’s resource endowment is extensive and diverse. Although certain countries have managed to convert these assets into measurable economic gains and increased investor confidence, many others still struggle to unlock the value of their reserves due to persistent governance challenges, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure. …
China’s central bank extends gold-buying streak as metal’s rally cools
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2025-12-06 23:17 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie Bloomberg News Saturday, December 6, 2025
China’s central bank added to its gold reserves for a 13th straight month, according to data released today.
Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 30,000 troy ounces last month, bringing the total to around 74.12 million troy ounces. The current buying cycle began in November 2024.
Gold has consolidated above the $4,000-an-ounce mark after pulling back from a peak in October and remains on track for its best year since 1979. Rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing rates at its Dec. 9-10 meeting are supporting the metal, while the market is also expecting the next Fed chair to take a more dovish approach to monetary policy. …
With gold breaking records, South Africa opens its first new gold mine in 15 years
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2025-12-05 10:20 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Chinedu Okafor Business Insider, New York Friday, December 5, 2025
… As a result of the mineral’s impressive performance all year round, markets in Africa are reacting significantly, including the seizure of mines in the Sahel region, and very recently, the construction of a new rare underground gold mine in South Africa.
The new underground mine is the first the country has built in 15 years.
West Wits Mining Ltd. put up an event for the launch of the mine at the company’s Qala Shallows site on the outskirts of Johannesburg.
The Australia-listed company is constructing a 30,000-ton stockpile after bringing its first ore to the surface in October.
The new mine promises $90 million in annual revenue, with a production capacity of 70,000 ounces in the same period. …
It beats cash — Australian miners build big gold stockpiles at Perth Mint amid record prices
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-12-04 22:42 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jarrod Lucas Australian Broadcasting Corp., Sydney Friday, December 5, 2025
A prospector who amassed a fortune in Western Australia’s mining industry after pegging ground covering some of Kalgoorlie’s richest gold mines has no plans to sell large stockpiles of the metal being stored at the Perth Mint.
Anton Billis, also known as Anthony, is a one-time bankrupt who remains a reclusive enigma in the resources sector.
The 81-year-old is managing director of ASX-listed gold miners Tribune Resources and Rand Mining, which own a combined 49 per cent stake in the rich East Kundana joint venture.
The Croatian-born prospector’s combined shareholding in Tribune and Rand was this week worth about $141 million.
Since 2005, the companies’ combined share of production from Kalgoorlie mines such as Raleigh, Rubicon-Hornet and Pegasus has topped 1.33 million ounces — a big chunk of which has been stockpiled at the mint. …
Iranians seek portable wealth as hedge against falling currency after war with Israel
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2025-12-04 13:24 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell Associated Press Thursday, December 4, 2025
TEHRAN, Iran — When it comes to financial security for Iran’s jittery public after the 12-day war with Israel, all that glitters is gold — and for many it remains the most trusted hedge against inflation, sanctions, and a weakening rial currency.
Traders in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar say every new headline about United Nations “snapback” sanctions, the rial’s fall, or renewed regional tensions have sent waves of people into buying “value-preserving assets. Those include dollars, gold, silver, diamonds, cryptocurrencies, and, to a lesser extent, equities.
Such portable wealth can hold value when local assets depreciate — and be easily carried in case of a crisis, something on Iranians’ minds for months as many fear another war with Israel breaking out.
Mansour, a 28-year-old gold and jewelry merchant in the bazaar, said he had never seen such demand. …
Jesse Colombo: An analysis of gold in different currencies
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2025-12-03 10:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jesse Colombo The Bubble Bubble Report Tuesday, December 2, 2025
From time to time, I like to check in on gold priced in the major currencies, and these analyses have become some of subscribers’ favorites.
Though simple in theory, this approach is quite powerful and helpful because it often reveals insights that can’t be gleaned from looking at gold solely priced in U.S. dollars, which is the default approach and by far the most common.
One reason for this is that it helps reveal how gold is actually performing in its own right, rather than as a result of strength or weakness in the U.S. dollar, which often clouds the analysis.
I have used this approach many times to spot major future moves in gold that were not visible when looking only at its price in dollars. For example, in the summer of 2024, it helped me foresee the surge from $2,500 to $3,000 at a time when many investors had grown confused and frustrated with it. …
Hartnett: Soon All Commodity Charts Will Look Like Gold
Long commodities the best “run it hot” trade in ’26, and long despised oil/energy without question the best “run-it-hot” contrarian trade
GROK AI
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist, has been making waves with his latest “Sunday Start” note, where he argues that the era of fiscal austerity and globalization is giving way to one of “political populism and inflationary growth.” In this “run-it-hot” environment—fueled by aggressive stimulus, deglobalization, and potential geopolitical resolutions like a Russia-Ukraine peace deal—commodities are positioned to shine. His key thesis: Soon, all commodity charts will look like gold’s explosive rally, with energy (especially oil) as the ultimate contrarian play.This isn’t just hype; it’s a structural shift. Post-GFC (Global Financial Crisis), bonds crushed commodities amid secular stagnation. But since COVID, the reverse has played out: fiscal excess, less monetary dominance, and supply chain rewiring have flipped the script. Commodities are already outperforming bonds by the widest margin since 2008 (8.25% on a 10-year rolling basis), and Hartnett sees this accelerating into 2026.Why Commodities Now? The “Run-It-Hot” DriversHartnett outlines a perfect storm for real assets:
Inflationary Policies: Trump’s anticipated “run it hot” agenda—tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation—could push U.S. growth above 3% while stoking inflation. This favors hard assets over financial ones.
Geopolitical Tailwinds: A potential “Russia-Ukraine fix” could stabilize supply chains, but combined with U.S. reshoring, it boosts demand for energy and metals.
China’s Role: A weaker yuan keeps export prices competitive, sustaining commodity demand from the world’s top importer.
AI and Infrastructure Boom: Surging needs for copper, rare earths, and energy in data centers and defense tech add structural demand.
Debasement Hedge: With global debt ballooning and central banks diversifying reserves, commodities act as a bulwark against currency weakness.
Gold’s 60% YTD surge (its best since the 1970s) is the canary in the coal mine—investors piling in as an inflation hedge and safe haven. Hartnett expects this pattern to cascade across the complex.The Top Trade: Long Commodities (with Oil/Energy as the Contrarian Star)Hartnett’s punchline: Long commodities is the best “run it hot” trade for 2026, and long despised oil/energy is without question the best “run-it-hot” contrarian trade.
Commodity Sector
Why It Wins in 2026
Key Catalysts
YTD Performance (as of Dec 2025)
Energy (Oil & Gas)
Undervalued after years of ESG-driven neglect; supply constraints meet rebounding demand.
Russia-Ukraine resolution + U.S. production limits; AI energy surge.
Oil stands out as “despised” due to its post-2022 volatility and green energy pivot, but Hartnett sees it rebounding sharply—potentially 20-30%—as peace deals ease sanctions and U.S. policy prioritizes energy independence. Broader commodity indices (e.g., Bloomberg Commodity Index) are up ~12% YTD, but Hartnett forecasts 15-20% gains in 2026.Risks and Contrarian AngleNot all sunshine: A global slowdown (e.g., from tariffs) could cap prices, and volatility remains high. Oxford Economics counters with a milder view, expecting a 0.9% dip in aggregate prices due to softening GDP. But Hartnett’s contrarian edge? Commodities are cheap relative to stocks (P/E ratios imply 20% upside) and bonds (yields compressed). Latin America stocks (e.g., Brazil, Chile) are a proxy play, up 25% YTD on commodity bets.In short, Hartnett’s call is a wake-up for portfolios heavy in tech/bonds: Rotate to real assets. As he puts it, “Commodities like it hot.” If you’re eyeing implementation, consider ETFs like DBC (broad commodities) or USO (oil) for exposure— but always align with your risk tolerance. This thesis is echoing loudly on X, with traders buzzing about the “commodity supercycle” revival.
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS /251 AND TODAY;S 252
252: P Radomski (a silver guy)
5. COMMODITY REPORT/PHYSICAL //SILVER
ASIA RESULTS; FRIDAY DEC 8
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.27 POINTS OR 0.54%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1.25%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 67.63 PTS OR 0.13% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0543
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0663/ Oil DOWN TO 59.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 63.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0543 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0583
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0663
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1.25%
2. Nikkei closed UP 67.63 PTS OR 0.13%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.94 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1652 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.974 // UP 2. AND 1/2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.91…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.400 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.8389/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.529 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.302
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.421
3j Gold at $4204.70 Silver at: 58.46 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 27/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76,76
3m oil (WTI) into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.42 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.974% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.400 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8045 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9370 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.153 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.808 UP 6 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.570 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.55 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5120 UP 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.226 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.270 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.068 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise For 10th Day In Past 11 With Fed Rate Cut Looming
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 08:42 AM
With just 17 trading sessions left in 2025, stock futures edge higher again and are on pace for 10 gains in the past 11 days. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% as of 5:32 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.3%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly unchanged except for a -1.3% decline in TSLA on a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Most Asian markets clock firm start to the week, while European markets are mixed. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher and the USD is flat after reversing an earlier drop. Commodities are mixed: oil and most base metals are down small, while precious metals are higher. Over the weekend, there were several corporate headlines: (i) MSFT is considering shift custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell (The Information). (ii) Trump warned the Netflix-Warner deal may post antitrust problem (BBG); (iii) IBM close to buy Confluent. A Fed cut on Wednesday looks like a done deal, but the trajectory after that is less clear. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka warned that the recent stock rally could stall after the decision. The Fed is also expected to restart “Reserve Management Purchases” ($45BN per month), which according to BofA’s Mark Cabana is not priced in; we also get earnings from Oracle and Broadcom, which may provide an end-of-year test for the AI narrative.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Tesla an outlier to the downside following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley from OW to EW (Amazon +0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet -0.1%, Microsoft +0.07%, Meta -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -1.3%)
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) falls 3% after saying that the FDA has not yet issued a regulatory decision on the supplemental new drug application for mitapivat in thalassemia.
Carvana (CVNA) rises 9%, CRH (CRH) gains 7% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Dec. 22.
Confluent (CFLT) is up 28% after the the Wall Street Journal reported International Business Machines Corp. is in advanced negotiations to acquire the data infrastructure firm.
CoreWeave (CRWV) drops 5% after announcing a $2 billion convertible senior notes offering.
Fluence Energy (FLNC) falls 4% after Mizuho Securities analyst Maheep Mandloi cut the recommendation to underperform, saying data-center opportunities are still early-stage.
ITT (ITT) slips 3% after plans to sell 7 million shares to help fund a portion of its SPX Flow deal.
Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) rises 29% after the drug developer announced positive results from a Phase 1b clinical trial of KT-621.
Tesla (TSLA) shares fall 1.4% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley downgrades the electric-car maker to equal-weight from overweight, saying non-auto catalysts priced into the stock.
In corporate news, Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. IBM is in advanced negotiations to acquire data infrastructure firm Confluent for around $11 billion, the WSJ reported. Robinhood is set to enter the Indonesian market after signing deals to acquire two local brokerages. Unilever spinoff The Magnum Ice Cream Co. will start trading in New York today as part of a three-location listing.
US stocks have rebounded in recent weeks after some Fed officials – and especially vice chair John Williams – signaled they intend to cut rates for a third straight time on Wednesday. Still, the advance has been jittery as uncertainty over the pace of easing in 2026 and wariness about the sustainability of an AI-driven rally temper sentiment.
Investors are now looking ahead to 2026. Over three-quarters of asset managers polled in an informal Bloomberg survey are positioning for a risk-on environment through 2026. Among strategists, Oppenheimer AM’s John Stoltzfus is calling for an 18% rally in the S&P 500 next year, becoming the most optimistic forecaster among those tracked by Bloomberg for a third year running. Still, there are some nuances. Investors are rotating out of the tech behemoths that drove virtually all of this year’s rally in the S&P 500 and are snapping up shares of risky small companies and old-economy transportation names. Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Mag 7 versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.
For stocks, interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe showed that a vast majority of allocators were still positioning for a risk-on environment through next year. The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns.
Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said he remains bullish on 2026 but isn’t planning to increase his stock exposure before year-end. “Like other market participants, we’ve had a good year and it doesn’t make much sense to do it when liquidity typically dries up in the last two weeks of December,” he said. “In terms of AI, 2025 was all about capex, but 2026 will be about these investments delivering revenues, profits and productivity gains.”
Unease that inflation remains too high has also caused divisions among Fed officials, in a rift that’s been exacerbated by the lack of fresh data during the shutdown. After this week’s likely cut, money markets are leaning toward two more moves by the end of 2026, down from three signaled barely a week ago.
While a resilient economy, seasonal support and catch-up positioning are supporting stocks, key risks still loom for investors, said Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer and global head of research at EFG Asset Management. Those include “that the Fed is less dovish than investors currently assume,” Murray said, along with “a delayed tariff impact that sees inflation higher for longer and cracks starting to widen in the labor market.”
“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”
The Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in industrial and insurance shares are offset by losses in consumer products and chemicals. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Kloeckner shares climb as much as 27% in Frankfurt, the most since 2008, after the firm said Worthington Steel was conducting due diligence with a view to a potential takeover of the German metals company.
Galderma shares rise as much as 4.5%, touching a record high, after L’Oreal announced plans to double its stake in the Swiss dermatology firm to 20%.
FlatexDEGIRO shares rise as much as 5.9% after Berenberg raised its price target on the online brokerage firm.
AUTO1 shares rally as much as 5.4% after Jefferies initiated coverage of the digital platform for buying and selling used cars with a buy recommendation.
Absa shares rise as much as 4.8% in Johannesburg, to their highest intraday level on record after the bank said it expects mid-single digit revenue growth in 2025, with stronger growth in non-interest income than net interest income.
GEA Group shares sink as much as 5%, to their lowest level since April, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the equipment supplier for the food processing industry to underweight.
Ferrari shares fall as much as 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the Italian luxury car maker to equal-weight on account of its decision to strictly limit volume growth until 2030.
Embracer falls as much as 33% as shares in the Swedish game company traded without rights to the upcoming spinoff of its Coffee Stain Group subsidiary.
Schott Pharma shares drop as much as 6.8% to the lowest level on record after analysts at Barclays and Deutsche Bank downgraded their ratings on the stock, saying the 2026 fiscal year will be a “transition year” for the German pharma packaging company.
Earlier in the session, Chinese indexes rally after local media reports leverage limit hike for brokerages, and the Politburo pledges more proactive macroeconomic policies. The ChiNext soars more than 3% and the CSI 300 gains about 1.2%. Topix, Taiex and Kospi are also in the green. Hang Seng slides almost 1%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. EUR/USD rose to session highs after ECB’s Schnabel said she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. The yen eases back to around 155.50/USD. Offshore yuan stays marginally stronger after a strong trade report.
In rates, treasuries outperform their European counterparts but are still in the red. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 2 bps to 4.15%. Europe led declines in global bond markets after the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel became the first senior official to suggest with any certainty that European rates have reached a floor, and she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. German 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 2.84%. Gilts also drop, pushing UK 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.52%. Japanese bond yields rose across the curve after data showed that the economy shrank in the three months through September, giving some justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package announced last month. The figures add an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next week, but likely won’t derail it from its gradual hiking path. Aussie bonds remain heavy as 10-year yield hits a two-year high ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision. JGB futures are tightly rangebound following lackluster GDP report.
In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 1% to near $59.50 a barrel. Brent crude futures pause around $63.90 and gold rises back above $4,210 an ounce. Spot gold adds $10 while Bitcoin rises 1.9% to around $92,000.
Today’s economic calendar includes November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
DAX +0.2%
CAC 40 little changed
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.15%
VIX +0.8 points at 16.22
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.98
euro little changed at $1.1652
WTI crude -0.9% at $59.54/barrel
Top Overnight News
Donald Trump said Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may pose antitrust concerns, warning that the combined entity’s market share “could be a problem.” He confirmed he met with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently. BBG
Trump plans to unveil a $12 billion farm aid package today, including one-time payments for crop farmers hit by low prices amid slow Chinese purchases. Advisers are also weighing measures to curb soaring beef prices, including reopening the border to Mexican cattle. WSJ
Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the HHS to fast-track a comprehensive evaluation of the vaccine schedules from other countries around the world, and better align the US vaccine schedule.
White House said it will establish food supply chain security task forces to protect competition.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will finish the year with 3% GDP growth.
China’s trade surplus in goods this year topped $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores the dominance that the country has attained. For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. WSJ
China’s annual car sales dropped 8.5% in November in a second straight monthly decline, for their biggest fall in 10 months, data showed on Monday, amid a waning scramble to buy vehicles before government subsidies dwindle at year-end. RTRS
Japan’s real wages shrank for the 10th consecutive month in October, with an uptick in nominal pay falling short of taming relentless consumer inflation, government data showed on Monday.
Thailand has launched air strikes on Cambodia after border clashes that killed on Thai soldier, marking the collapse of a Trump brokered peace deal between the south east Asian neighbors. FT
Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy continued to accelerate in October, with the sector showing further signs of stabilization as it awaits large-scale government investment. October came in at +1.8% M/M (vs. the Street +0.3%). WSJ
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said he planned to present Republican leadership with his health care plan as soon as Sunday night, predicting that the divisive proposal to put money directly in Americans’ health savings accounts could clear the 60-vote threshold needed to pass in the Senate. Politico
IBM is in advanced talks to acquire data-infrastructure company Confluent (CFLT) for around $11 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced as soon as today. WSJ
Following an 11% drawdown this fall, Consumer Discretionary stocks have rebounded by 7% during the past two weeks. The combination of hawkish Fed commentary, weak labor market data, declining consumer sentiment, and downbeat corporate commentary contributed to a sell-off in Consumer Discretionary stocks between early September and mid-November. During the past two weeks, however, consumer stocks have rebounded, with the equal-weight S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 by 2%: Goldman
Trade/Tariffs
US President Trump said we’ll work it out, when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada, while it was separately reported that the Canadian PM’s office said PM Carney agreed with US President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep working together on the trade deal.
USTR said China’s trade commitments are going in the right direction and that they are seen to be in compliance so far.
French President Macron warned that the EU could hit China with tariffs if nothing is done to reduce its widening trade deficit with the EU, according to Les Echos.
EU is to expand the carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines, as it seeks to close loopholes in the law to prevent carbon-intensive imports, according to FT.
US Embassy in India said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker will visit New Delhi and Bengaluru, India, on December 7th-11th.
German Foreign Minister said a lot of work is still needed to persuade China to issue general export licenses for rare earths.
China’s Vice Commerce Minister said he welcomes EU automakers to continue to invest in China. Urges Germany and the EU auto association to push the EU Commission to resolve the EV anti-subsidy case. On Nexperia, he said the root cause of chaos in the global semiconductor supply chains lies in the Netherlands.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week’s risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures. ASX 200 was subdued amid somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner and as the RBA kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following a slew of mixed data from Japan, including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and disappointing revisions to Q3 GDP, while sentiment was also clouded by geopolitical tensions after Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming military radar at Japan’s Self-Defence Force jets. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming as gains in tech were overshadowed by losses in the big banks, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed.
Top Asian News
China’s Politburo held a meeting on the economy and reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, with fiscal policy being more proactive, while it stated that the economic operation is generally stable and it will implement more active macro policies. Furthermore, it will continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, as well as stabilise employment, markets, and enterprises’ expectations.
Hong Kong held its legislative election on Sunday to elect 90 Legislative Council members from the 161 government-vetted candidates.
Australia Treasurer Chalmers said they will not extend electricity rebates and that the mid-year review will not be a mini budget, while he added that the review will include savings.
BoJ Governor Ueda to attend Japan’s lower house budget committee from 05:35-06:05 GMT on Tuesday, according to a parliamentary source cited by Reuters.
Chinese President Xi held a meeting with non-party members on the economy, according to Xinhua, and said China to stabilise jobs and markets. said 2025 has been unusual and will smoothly meet the main targets. To reinforce economic growth momentum. Economic goals will be achieved this year. To drive reasonable economic growth.
China’s auto industry body CPCA said China sold 2.24mln passenger cars in November, down 8.5% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 13,555 China-made vehicles (prev. 35,491 in October).
Indonesian Finance Minister said the nation is to impose a coal export tax near year between 1% and 5%.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) began the morning mixed, with a slight negative bias. Since the open, indices have held an upward bias with some climbing marginally into the green. European sectors are mostly lower. Industrials and Tech hold towards the top of the pile, whilst Real Estate and Media lags a touch. In terms of a key story, BNP Paribas (+0.7%) is to sell its stake in AG insurance to Ageas (+2.2%) for EUR 1.9bln.
Top European News
UK PM Starmer said former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September, while he described her as “hugely talented”.
Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike. Later on, she also said she would be ready to succeed President Lagarde if she were asked to, via Bloomberg. She said the euro economy is on course to grow above potential despite the headwinds, and the economic outlook has brightened and the downside risks to growth have been reduced significantly, and uncertainty has come down quite quickly, which should further support future economic activity. The global economy and global trade have proven to be more resilient. On inflation, she said it’s in a good place. It’s currently around 2%, and we also project medium-term inflation to be around 2%. Volatile energy prices and related base effects may push headline inflation temporarily below our target. Services inflation has been much stickier than expected. The downward pressure on goods inflation due to a stronger euro, lower energy prices and potential trade diversion from China has been weaker than expected. On policy, she said interest rates are in a good place. Rather comfortable with those expectations of the next move being a rate hike. A first rate hike in June 2026 remains very uncertain.
ECB’s Rehn said the ECB is concerned about central bank independence in the US, via Econostream. Adds that Fed independence is an important issue for “all of us globally”. On an insurance cut, said “we are not in the insurance business, not in December, March or June”. Inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target. German spending to have a “formidable positive impact” on Germany and the Euro area.
ECB’s Rehn said they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term. Furthermore, he said they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy, and that the position on interest rates is not fixed.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in the ECB’s approach to monetary policy to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of a financial crisis, while he commented that reasserting the value of the European internal market means it can’t let inflation be its sole objective, but also growth and employment.
European Commission may announce a package to support the auto industry on December 16th, according to industry sources.
German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron are set to discuss the fate of the Franco-German fighter jet project FCAS in the week of December 15th, according to an industry source.
Germany’s auto industry body VDA said it expects 2026 registrations to rise 2% to 2.9mln. Electric car sales in Germany to jump 17% to 979k in 2026. Expects the nation to remain the world’s second-largest EV producer in 2026.
French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure said the party will vote for the French budget’s social security programme.
FX
DXY has now returned to flat territory after being dragged lower, but EUR strength as ECB hawk Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon, according to Bloomberg. Little notable reaction was seen in ECB marking pricing throughout 2026, which remains unchanged for rates throughout the horizon, although the EUR strengthened and EZ yields rose.
The Single Currency was also supported by surprisingly upbeat German Industrial Output data. EUR/USD hit a 1.1672 peak, matching Friday’s high, before waning back towards 1.1650 levels. Subsequently, DXY fell to a 98.79 trough before trimming losses back towards near-99.00.
GBP is subdued by the EUR/GBP cross, which briefly eclipsed its 50 DMA (0.8751) from a 0.8726 low on the back of the aforementioned ECB commentary and data. GBP/USD meanwhile closed around its 200 DMA on Friday and traded below the level (1.3331) throughout most of today’s session. In terms of weekend UK newsflow, Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
Other G10s are largely flat with Antipodeans mixed following the Chinese Trade Balance data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed. Thus, AUD is subdued ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, whilst NZD is among the better performers as AUD/NZD falls back after meeting resistance at 1.1500.
Fixed Income
USTs are trading lower by a couple of ticks, having held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really much driving things for US paper this morning, and action appears to be following peers and in a continuation of Friday’s losses. Traders await the FOMC meeting mid-week, where a 25bps cut is widely expected – but likely to be subject to dissent from several board members. Back to price action, USTs are trading within a narrow 112-14 to 112-19 range, with today’s trough a tick below that made on Friday. Further pressure could see a retest of the trough made on 20th November at 112-10+.
Bunds are also pressured, and to a larger magnitude than USTs (but less so than UK paper). The benchmark followed US paper overnight, and held a negative bias, before taking a leg lower on comments via Schnabel. The arch-hawk, speaking on Bloomberg, said that she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon. In an immediate reaction, Bund Mar’26 fell from 127.98 to 127.80 over the course of around 5 minutes, before then extending to a trough of 127.74; from a yield perspective, the 10-year rose 3bps to 2.83%, levels not seen since March. Elsewhere, other ECB members have not impacted assets quite so much, with Rehn suggesting that “inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target.”, via Econostream. And finally on the data front, German Industrial Output M/M rose more than expected; ING’s Brzeski said “there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out” in the German economy.
Gilts underperform vs peers, and are currently down by around 40 ticks. Price action has been fairly muted this morning, gapped lower at the open and has resided at the bottom end of a 90.90 to 91.11 range. Pressure today in tandem with US/German paper, but with underperformance perhaps explained by ongoing domestic political updates. Focus has been on reports that Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times. Moreover, perhaps some focus on political instability within the Labour Party as PM Starmer floats the return of Angela Rayner. Elsewhere, a KPMG/REC survey showed the UK labour market weakened further in November.
Commodities
WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight USD 59.98-60.27/bbl and USD 63.63-63.94/bbl, respectively, throughout the APAC session. As the European session got underway, benchmarks failed to extend the highs of the APAC session and reversed lower to dip below USD 60/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl, despite a lack of crude-specific newsflow. Currently, benchmarks are extending on session lows as progress on a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remains in focus.
Spot XAU edged higher throughout the APAC session amid a weaker dollar ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, in which the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps at its meeting on Wednesday. XAU hit a low of USD 4191/oz as the APAC session commenced and gradually traded higher to a peak of USD 4219/oz as the European session got underway. Data over the weekend showed that the PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month.
3M LME Copper extended to a new ATH of USD 11.75k/t as China’s Politburo reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, setting domestic growth as its top economic priority. This comes amid new demand, fuelled by AI infrastructure build and EVs, coming up against a tight global supply. China’s exports also rose in November to 5.9%, compared to the expected 3.8% and the October figure of -1.1%.
UAE Energy Minister said overall demand for energy will increase, fossil fuels will be “a percentage of it”. Adds that natural gas is important and they intend to not only satisfy their local demand but also grow exports of their LNG. Agrees that natural gas demand is more than the projects they are seeing.
Russia’s Kremlin said India buys energy where it is profitable to; as far as Russia understands, India will “continue to do that”.
EU to delay proposals on carbon border tariff and proposals for automotive sector, including Co2 emissions to December 16th, according to a document seen by Reuters.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Trump this month, while he said they believe there is a path to a workable peace with their Palestinian neighbours and that the sovereign power of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will always remain in Israel’s hands. Furthermore, he said political annexation of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion, and the status quo in the West Bank will remain for the foreseeable future, as well as noted that they are close to the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.
Palestinian PM Mustafa said Israel is stepping up the ‘creeping annexation’ of the West Bank and is intensifying efforts to make the West Bank unliveable and drive people out of the occupied territory, according to FT.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said Hamas is ready to hand over the Gaza administration to the Palestinian committee to advance the Gaza ceasefire deal. He also commented that Hamas disarmament in the first phase of the Gaza deal may not be a realistic and doable objective, while other steps are needed first.
US, Israel and Qatar were reportedly holding a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday to rebuild relations, according to Axios.
A US official said the US is pushing Ukraine to agree “faster” to the peace plan, according to AFP.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Ukraine’s President Zelensky says no accord so far on Ukraine’s Donbas in US talks, via Bloomberg.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a substantive call with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while he stated they agreed on the next steps and format for talks with America, as well as noted that Ukraine is determined to continue working honestly with the US side in order to bring real peace. Zelensky separately commented that talks with US representatives on a peace plan were constructive but not easy.
Ukrainian military conducted a strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kucherivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and completed the capture of Rivne in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while they carried out a group strike on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and long-range drone complexes.
Russia and China held their third joint anti-missile drills on Russian territory.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s claims about the Japan Self-Defence Force’s dangerous flight are inaccurate, while he added it is very important to gain an understanding of other countries, including the US, regarding Japan’s stance.
Japan is reportedly frustrated at the Trump administration’s silence over the row with China and urged the US to give PM Takaichi more public support, according to FT.
Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said they are deeply concerned about the actions of China following the air incident near Japan, while Marles discussed with Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi common serious concerns about the situation in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Furthermore, they discussed how to work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, while Marles also commented that they want the most productive relationship they can achieve with China.
Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire in a border region on Friday.
Thai Army spokesman said their military launched airstrikes in the disputed border area with Cambodia.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said China believes both countries can win from cooperation on the new US defence strategy. Also said it stands ready to work with the US to improve ties and that China will firmly defend its sovereignty.
Rapid Support Forces confirms control of Heglig oil field, the largest oil field in Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
Russia’s Kremlin said it welcomed the removal of Russia from the list of US direct threats in the new national security strategy.
Geopolitics: Other
Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said Chinese military planes directed radar at Japan’s self-defence forces twice. It was separately reported that Japanese PM Takaichi said the incident involving Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese planes is extremely regrettable, while she said they will respond calmly and resolutely to the development.
US Event Calendar
November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am
DB’s JIm Reid concludes the overnight wrap
All roads this week will point to Wednesday’s FOMC. Markets and DB expect the Fed to deliver a final and third 25bps rate cut for 2025, making it 6 cuts and 175bps in this easing cycle since September 2024. The decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent anticipated from both hawkish and dovish members. Should four or more officials break ranks, it would mark the largest split since 1992. Beyond the headline move, the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and the accompanying statement will be critical. We expect Powell to emphasise that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signalling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility ahead of likely softer labour market data due later in December.
Beyond the Fed, the global calendar features several other central bank decisions and important data releases. Maybe tech earnings from Oracle (Wednesday) and Broadcom (Thursday) will be the most interesting, with the two names diverging considerably over the last couple of months. The former is down -34% over this period with the latter only -3% off its all-time-high seen a couple of weeks ago. In terms of central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, but with a hawkish tilt likely after recent inflation increases. The January 7th inflation data could encourage markets to price in a hike as soon as February. The Bank of Canada follows on Wednesday, with the Swiss National Bank on Thursday with both expected to stay on hold. Canada saw a +16bps rise in 2yr yields on Friday after another strong labour market release with traders now suddenly, and fully, pricing in a hike by October next year. Meanwhile, the SNB are trying to avoid negative rates next year with rates now around zero.
Elsewhere, UK monthly GDP for October will be released on Friday, alongside German industrial production today and trade figures on Tuesday. China inflation is released on Wednesday where our economists expect CPI inflation to rise by 0.5ppt to 0.7% YoY and PPI to improve by 0.2ppt to -1.9% YoY. Nordic inflation prints are also due midweek, with Denmark and Norway publishing November CPI reports. Also watch out for the BoJ Ueda who speaks in London tomorrow ahead of a fascinating BoJ meeting next Friday just as the market winds down for Xmas.
Expanding further on the FOMC now, according to our economist’s preview here, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should show only modest revisions. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are likely to be nudged higher, consistent with the October staff update, while inflation projections should be trimmed for this year and next. The unemployment path is expected to remain broadly unchanged. The dot plot should continue to point to one cut per year over the next two years, reinforcing the message that policy is approaching the neutral range (3.5–3.75%). Our economist’s baseline remains that the Fed stays on hold through the first half of 2026, with risks skewed towards another cut in Q1 if labour market weakness persists. Under new leadership later in the year, they anticipate a September cut as disinflation resumes, taking the trough in the fed funds rate to around 3.3%.
While the Fed dominates, a handful of other releases could provide additional nuance. Tomorrow brings combined September–October JOLTS data, offering a backward-looking snapshot of hiring and quits trends. Recent figures have underscored a “low hiring/low firing” dynamic, with private hiring at multi-year lows and quits subdued. Wednesday’s Employment Cost Index for Q3 is forecast at DB to hold steady at +0.9%, keeping annual growth around 3.6%. Thursday rounds out the docket with September trade numbers (-$69.6bn expected vs. -$59.6bn prior) and initial jobless claims (225k vs. 191k), the latter likely to increase after holiday distortions.
Asian equities are relatively quiet ahead of an important week. As I check my screens, the Nikkei is flat, impacted by Japan’s revised Q3 GDP data (details below). In other markets, Chinese stocks are diverging with the Hang Seng (-1.05%) lower, while the CSI (+1.05%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) are higher, buoyed by better-than-expected China exports and a larger trade surplus compared to the previous month. Additionally, the KOSPI (+0.77%) is also rising. S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures are both trading higher.
Returning to China, outbound shipments increased by +5.9% year-on-year in November, surpassing market expectations for +4.0% growth, marking a recovery from an unexpected -1.1% decline in October — the first contraction since March 2024. Imports rose by +1.9% last month, falling short of the anticipated +3.0% increase, as a prolonged housing downturn and rising job insecurity continued to hinder domestic consumption. This growth was an improvement compared to the 1% recorded in October. Elsewhere, in Japan, the revised annualised Q3 growth contraction was reported at -2.3%, compared to an earlier estimate of -1.8% and a market forecast of a -2.0% decline.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP decreased by -0.6%, which is steeper than the initial -0.4% contraction and exceeded the forecast of a -0.5% decline. Separately, real wages fell by -0.7% in October compared to the previous year, a slower decline than the revised -1.3% drop in September, but it extended a losing streak that began in January. Meanwhile, average nominal wages, or total cash earnings, rose by +2.6% year-on-year in October, marking a three-month high that followed a +2.1% increase in the previous month.
In bond markets, yields on the 10-year Australian government bonds are +2.2bps, reaching 4.71%, marking the highest level in two years in anticipation of the RBA meeting tomorrow. New Zealand’s 10-year government bond are +8.8bps. 10 and 30yr JGBs are +2bps and +3bps higher respectively.
Recapping last week now and markets continued to grind higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.31%; +0.19% Friday), NASDAQ (+0.91%; +0.31% Friday), and the STOXX 600 (+0.41%; -0.01% Friday) all edging higher. The Mag-7 (+1.40%; +0.35% Friday) was boosted by strong performances from Tesla (+5.77%; +0.10% Friday) and Meta (+3.93%; +1.80% Friday), the latter on a Bloomberg report of budget cuts up to 30% for its metaverse division. In contrast, Microsoft fell -1.80% (+0.48% Friday) amid a press report of lowered AI sales quotas, which the company subsequently denied. The overall risk-tone saw the VIX volatility index (-0.55pts) fall to a two-month low of 15.41, and credit spreads tighten, with both US IG (-3bps) and HY (-5bps) rallying.
On the data front, we saw mixed US labour market releases, as the ADP report showed US private payrolls falling by 32k in November (vs. +10k expected) driven by highest job losses for small businesses since the pandemic (-120k) but weekly initial jobless claims (191k vs. 220k expected) painted a more robust picture, although Thanksgiving distortion likely dominated. In terms of survey releases, ISM services was slightly stronger than anticipated at 52.6 (vs. 52.0 expected), while its prices paid component fell to a seven-month low of 65.4 (vs. 68.0 expected). And on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (53.3 VS 51.0 expected) rebounded from its November slump as 5-10 year inflation expectations (3.2% vs 3.4% expected) fell to their lowest since January.
While a December Fed rate cut is more than 95% priced, the conflicting data drove a hawkish adjustment further out with the amount of cuts priced by end-26 declining by -9.3bps (-3.4bps Friday). This led to a rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps to 3.56%, while the 10yr saw its biggest weekly sell-off since April (+12.1bps to 4.14%, +3.7bps Friday). Higher yields were also driven by developments in Japan, as comments from BoJ Governor Ueda led investors to anticipate a December rate hike. 10-year JGB yields rose by +13.5bps to a post-2008 high of 1.94% and 30-year yields by +1.5bps to 3.35%, its highest since the tenor was introduced in the late-1990s.
In Europe, 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.4bps), and BTPs (+8.5bps) joined the global bond sell-off. That came as the Euro Area flash CPI for November was higher than expected at +2.2% (vs. +2.1% expected), while the composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, its highest in two-and-a-half years. The data supported modest equity gains, with the DAX +0.80% higher though the CAC 40 (-0.10%) was marginally lower. European credit spreads were also tighter for both IG (-6bps) and HY (-8bps).
In commodities, Brent crude saw a modest rally of +2.20% to $63.75/bbl, as no concrete plans for a ceasefire in Ukraine emerged. Cryptocurrencies experienced a volatile week. Bitcoin ended the week down -1.88%, but that included a -5.19% move on Monday and +5.97% on Tuesday. Gold was down -0.98% to $4,198/oz following an almost 5% rally the previous week.
1b European opening report
US equities futures point to modest gains ahead of this week’s f
lurry of central bank decisions – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 06:10 AM
European bourses attempt to move higher after initial pressure, US equity futures trade with modest gains.
USD is flat, EUR and NZD manage to hold towards the top of the G10 pile.
Global bonds pressured, Bunds hit on hawkish remarks via ECB’s Schnabel, who said that she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon.
Crude benchmarks retreat despite a lack of drivers, XAU grinds higher and 3M LME Copper benefits after positive Chinese exports data, though Imports disappointed.
Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Cipollone, BoE’s Taylor & Lombardelli, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
TARIFFS/TRADE
US President Trump said we’ll work it out, when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada, while it was separately reported that the Canadian PM’s office said PM Carney agreed with US President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep working together on the trade deal.
USTR said China’s trade commitments are going in the right direction and that they are seen to be in compliance so far.
French President Macron warned that the EU could hit China with tariffs if nothing is done to reduce its widening trade deficit with the EU, according to Les Echos.
EU is to expand the carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines, as it seeks to close loopholes in the law to prevent carbon-intensive imports, according to FT.
US Embassy in India said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker will visit New Delhi and Bengaluru, India, on December 7th-11th.
German Foreign Minister said a lot of work is still needed to persuade China to issue general export licenses for rare earths.
China’s Vice Commerce Minister said he welcomes EU automakers to continue to invest in China. Urges Germany and the EU auto association to push the EU Commission to resolve the EV anti-subsidy case. On Nexperia, he said the root cause of chaos in the global semiconductor supply chains lies in the Netherlands.
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) began the morning mixed, with a slight negative bias. Since the open, indices have held an upward bias with some climbing marginally into the green.
European sectors are mostly lower.Industrials and Tech hold towards the top of the pile, whilst Real Estate and Media lags a touch. In terms of a key story, BNP Paribas (+0.7%) is to sell its stake in AG insurance to Ageas (+2.2%) for EUR 1.9bln.
US equity futures (ES NQ RTY) are trading on a slightly firmer footing, with some outperformance in the RTY. As for equity stories, some focus has been on comments via US President Trump, who voiced potential antitrust concerns regarding Netflix’s planned USD 72bln acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. Trump cited the combined entity’s potential market share as a “problem”.
DXY has now returned to flat territory after being dragged lower, but EUR strength as ECB hawk Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon, according to Bloomberg. Little notable reaction was seen in ECB marking pricing throughout 2026, which remains unchanged for rates throughout the horizon, although the EUR strengthened and EZ yields rose.
The Single Currency was also supported by surprisingly upbeat German Industrial Output data. EUR/USD hit a 1.1672 peak, matching Friday’s high, before waning back towards 1.1650 levels. Subsequently, DXY fell to a 98.79 trough before trimming losses back towards near-99.00.
GBP is subdued by the EUR/GBP cross, which briefly eclipsed its 50 DMA (0.8751) from a 0.8726 low on the back of the aforementioned ECB commentary and data. GBP/USD meanwhile closed around its 200 DMA on Friday and traded below the level (1.3331) throughout most of today’s session. In terms of weekend UK newsflow, Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
Other G10s are largely flat with Antipodeans mixed following the Chinese Trade Balance data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed. Thus, AUD is subdued ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, whilst NZD is among the better performers as AUD/NZD falls back after meeting resistance at 1.1500.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0764 vs exp. 7.0747 (Prev. 7.0749)
FIXED INCOME
USTs are trading lower by a couple of ticks, having held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really much driving things for US paper this morning, and action appears to be following peers and in a continuation of Friday’s losses. Traders await the FOMC meeting mid-week, where a 25bps cut is widely expected – but likely to be subject to dissent from several board members. Back to price action, USTs are trading within a narrow 112-14 to 112-19 range, with today’s trough a tick below that made on Friday. Further pressure could see a retest of the trough made on 20th November at 112-10+.
Bunds are also pressured, and to a larger magnitude than USTs (but less so than UK paper). The benchmark followed US paper overnight, and held a negative bias, before taking a leg lower on comments via Schnabel. The arch-hawk, speaking on Bloomberg, said that she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon. In an immediate reaction, Bund Mar’26 fell from 127.98 to 127.80 over the course of around 5 minutes, before then extending to a trough of 127.74; from a yield perspective, the 10-year rose 3bps to 2.83%, levels not seen since March. Elsewhere, other ECB members have not impacted assets quite so much, with Rehn suggesting that “inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target.”, via Econostream. And finally on the data front, German Industrial Output M/M rose more than expected; ING’s Brzeski said “there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out” in the German economy.
Gilts underperform vs peers, and are currently down by around 40 ticks. Price action has been fairly muted this morning, gapped lower at the open and has resided at the bottom end of a 90.90 to 91.11 range. Pressure today in tandem with US/German paper, but with underperformance perhaps explained by ongoing domestic political updates. Focus has been on reports that Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times. Moreover, perhaps some focus on political instability within the Labour Party as PM Starmer floats the return of Angela Rayner. Elsewhere, a KPMG/REC survey showed the UK labour market weakened further in November.
COMMODITIES
WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight USD 59.98-60.27/bbl and USD 63.63-63.94/bbl, respectively, throughout the APAC session. As the European session got underway, benchmarks failed to extend the highs of the APAC session and reversed lower to dip below USD 60/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl, despite a lack of crude-specific newsflow. Currently, benchmarks are extending on session lows as progress on a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remains in focus.
Spot XAU edged higher throughout the APAC session amid a weaker dollar ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, in which the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps at its meeting on Wednesday. XAU hit a low of USD 4191/oz as the APAC session commenced and gradually traded higher to a peak of USD 4219/oz as the European session got underway. Data over the weekend showed that the PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month.
3M LME Copper extended to a new ATH of USD 11.75k/t as China’s Politburo reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, setting domestic growth as its top economic priority. This comes amid new demand, fuelled by AI infrastructure build and EVs, coming up against a tight global supply. China’s exports also rose in November to 5.9%, compared to the expected 3.8% and the October figure of -1.1%.
UAE Energy Minister said overall demand for energy will increase, fossil fuels will be “a percentage of it”. Adds that natural gas is important and they intend to not only satisfy their local demand but also grow exports of their LNG. Agrees that natural gas demand is more than the projects they are seeing.
Russia’s Kremlin said India buys energy where it is profitable to; as far as Russia understands, India will “continue to do that”.
EU to delay proposals on carbon border tariff and proposals for automotive sector, including Co2 emissions to December 16th, according to a document seen by Reuters.
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
EU Sentix Index (Dec) -6.2 vs. Exp. -7.0 (Prev. -7.4)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer said former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September, while he described her as “hugely talented”.
Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike. Later on, she also said she would be ready to succeed President Lagarde if she were asked to, via Bloomberg. She said the euro economy is on course to grow above potential despite the headwinds, and the economic outlook has brightened and the downside risks to growth have been reduced significantly, and uncertainty has come down quite quickly, which should further support future economic activity. The global economy and global trade have proven to be more resilient. On inflation, she said it’s in a good place. It’s currently around 2%, and we also project medium-term inflation to be around 2%. Volatile energy prices and related base effects may push headline inflation temporarily below our target. Services inflation has been much stickier than expected. The downward pressure on goods inflation due to a stronger euro, lower energy prices and potential trade diversion from China has been weaker than expected. On policy, she said interest rates are in a good place. Rather comfortable with those expectations of the next move being a rate hike. A first rate hike in June 2026 remains very uncertain.
ECB’s Rehn said the ECB is concerned about central bank independence in the US, via Econostream. Adds that Fed independence is an important issue for “all of us globally”. On an insurance cut, said “we are not in the insurance business, not in December, March or June”. Inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target. German spending to have a “formidable positive impact” on Germany and the Euro area.
ECB’s Rehn said they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term. Furthermore, he said they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy, and that the position on interest rates is not fixed.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in the ECB’s approach to monetary policy to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of a financial crisis, while he commented that reasserting the value of the European internal market means it can’t let inflation be its sole objective, but also growth and employment.
European Commission may announce a package to support the auto industry on December 16th, according to industry sources.
German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron are set to discuss the fate of the Franco-German fighter jet project FCAS in the week of December 15th, according to an industry source.
Germany’s auto industry body VDA said it expects 2026 registrations to rise 2% to 2.9mln. Electric car sales in Germany to jump 17% to 979k in 2026. Expects the nation to remain the world’s second-largest EV producer in 2026.
French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure said the party will vote for the French budget’s social security programme.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump said the Netflix (NFLX)-Warner Brothers (WBD) deal has to go through the process, while he will be involved in the decision, and said it represents a big market share, which could be a problem.
US President Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the HHS to fast-track a comprehensive evaluation of the vaccine schedules from other countries around the world, and better align the US vaccine schedule.
White House said it will establish food supply chain security task forces to protect competition.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will finish the year with 3% GDP growth.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Trump this month, while he said they believe there is a path to a workable peace with their Palestinian neighbours and that the sovereign power of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will always remain in Israel’s hands. Furthermore, he said political annexation of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion, and the status quo in the West Bank will remain for the foreseeable future, as well as noted that they are close to the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.
Palestinian PM Mustafa said Israel is stepping up the ‘creeping annexation’ of the West Bank and is intensifying efforts to make the West Bank unliveable and drive people out of the occupied territory, according to FT.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said Hamas is ready to hand over the Gaza administration to the Palestinian committee to advance the Gaza ceasefire deal. He also commented that Hamas disarmament in the first phase of the Gaza deal may not be a realistic and doable objective, while other steps are needed first.
US, Israel and Qatar were reportedly holding a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday to rebuild relations, according to Axios.
A US official said the US is pushing Ukraine to agree “faster” to the peace plan, according to AFP.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukraine’s President Zelensky says no accord so far on Ukraine’s Donbas in US talks, via Bloomberg.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a substantive call with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while he stated they agreed on the next steps and format for talks with America, as well as noted that Ukraine is determined to continue working honestly with the US side in order to bring real peace. Zelensky separately commented that talks with US representatives on a peace plan were constructive but not easy.
Ukrainian military conducted a strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kucherivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and completed the capture of Rivne in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while they carried out a group strike on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and long-range drone complexes.
Russia and China held their third joint anti-missile drills on Russian territory.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s claims about the Japan Self-Defence Force’s dangerous flight are inaccurate, while he added it is very important to gain an understanding of other countries, including the US, regarding Japan’s stance.
Japan is reportedly frustrated at the Trump administration’s silence over the row with China and urged the US to give PM Takaichi more public support, according to FT.
Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said they are deeply concerned about the actions of China following the air incident near Japan, while Marles discussed with Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi common serious concerns about the situation in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Furthermore, they discussed how to work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, while Marles also commented that they want the most productive relationship they can achieve with China.
Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire in a border region on Friday.
Thai Army spokesman said their military launched airstrikes in the disputed border area with Cambodia.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said China believes both countries can win from cooperation on the new US defence strategy. Also said it stands ready to work with the US to improve ties and that China will firmly defend its sovereignty.
Rapid Support Forces confirms control of Heglig oil field, the largest oil field in Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
Russia’s Kremlin said it welcomed the removal of Russia from the list of US direct threats in the new national security strategy.
OTHER
Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said Chinese military planes directed radar at Japan’s self-defence forces twice. It was separately reported that Japanese PM Takaichi said the incident involving Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese planes is extremely regrettable, while she said they will respond calmly and resolutely to the development.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades just shy of USD 92k, whilst Ethereum gains to a larger magnitude and climbs to USD 3.2k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week’s risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures.
ASX 200 was subdued amid somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner and as the RBA kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following a slew of mixed data from Japan, including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and disappointing revisions to Q3 GDP, while sentiment was also clouded by geopolitical tensions after Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming military radar at Japan’s Self-Defence Force jets.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming as gains in tech were overshadowed by losses in the big banks, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Politburo held a meeting on the economy and reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, with fiscal policy being more proactive, while it stated that the economic operation is generally stable and it will implement more active macro policies. Furthermore, it will continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, as well as stabilise employment, markets, and enterprises’ expectations.
Hong Kong held its legislative election on Sunday to elect 90 Legislative Council members from the 161 government-vetted candidates.
Australia Treasurer Chalmers said they will not extend electricity rebates and that the mid-year review will not be a mini budget, while he added that the review will include savings.
BoJ Governor Ueda to attend Japan’s lower house budget committee from 05:35-06:05 GMT on Tuesday, according to a parliamentary source cited by Reuters.
Chinese President Xi held a meeting with non-party members on the economy, according to Xinhua, and said China to stabilise jobs and markets. said 2025 has been unusual and will smoothly meet the main targets. To reinforce economic growth momentum. Economic goals will be achieved this year. To drive reasonable economic growth.
China’s auto industry body CPCA said China sold 2.24mln passenger cars in November, down 8.5% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 13,555 China-made vehicles (prev. 35,491 in October).
Indonesian Finance Minister said the nation is to impose a coal export tax near year between 1% and 5%.
China to cut retail gasoline price by CNY 55/t, and to cut retail diesel price by CNY 55/t
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Nov) 111.68B vs. Exp. 100.15B (Prev. 90.07B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Nov) 5.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. -1.1%)
Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Nov) 1.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 1.0%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Nov) 792.57B (Prev. 640.49B)
Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Nov) 5.70% (Prev. -0.80%)
Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Nov) 1.70% (Prev. 1.40%)
Japanese GDP Revised QQ (Q3) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.4%)
Japanese GDP Rev QQ Annualised (Q3) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -1.8%)
Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Nov) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. 2.1%)
Japanese Real Cash Earnings YY (Oct) -0.7% vs Exp. -1.2% (Prev. -1.4%, Rev. -1.3%)
1c) Asian opening report
Hawkish Schnabel comments weighed on European markets as equity futures point to a softer open – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 01:51 AM
EUR/USD gained, while DAX and Bund futures fell as ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike.
APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week’s risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures.
USD/JPY briefly retreated beneath the 155.00 handle amid a softer buck and as the latest wages data from Japan supported the case for a December BoJ rate hike, although Q3 GDP revisions were disappointing and showed a wider-than-feared contraction.
Chinese trade data showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports, but Imports disappointed.
European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Friday.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Sentix, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, BoE’s Taylor & Lombardelli, Supply from the US.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were mixed on Friday but ultimately finished the session with an upward bias, as the SPX, NDX and DJI closed in the green, but RUT lagged and finished lower. Sectors were also mixed, in which Communication, Tech and Consumer Discretionary led the gains, although Utilities, Health Care and Industrials underperformed, while focus was largely on US data, in which PCE leaned softer than expected in September, while UoM beat forecasts with declining inflation expectations. Nonetheless, the data had little impact on Fed expectations.
SPX +0.19% at 6,870, NDX +0.43% at 25,692, DJI +0.22% at 47,955, RUT -0.38% at 2,521.
US President Trump said we’ll work it out, when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada, while it was separately reported that the Canadian PM’s office said PM Carney agreed with US President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep working together on the trade deal.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said during a constructive call on Friday with Chinese VP He Lifeng and USTR Greer that they discussed the ongoing implementation of the Busan arrangement between Presidents Trump and Xi, which is going well, while they also reaffirmed US commitment to continued engagement with China.
USTR said China’s trade commitments are going in the right direction and that they are seen to be in compliance so far.
French President Macron warned that the EU could hit China with tariffs if nothing is done to reduce its widening trade deficit with the EU, according to Les Echos.
EU is to expand the carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines, as it seeks to close loopholes in the law to prevent carbon-intensive imports, according to FT.
US Embassy in India said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker will visit New Delhi and Bengaluru, India on December 7th-11th.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump said the Netflix (NFLX)-Warner Brothers (WBD) deal has to go through the process, while he will be involved in the decision and said it represents a big market share, which could be a problem.
US President Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the HHS to fast-track a comprehensive evaluation of the vaccine schedules from other countries around the world, and better align the US vaccine schedule.
White House said it will establish food supply chain security task forces to protect competition.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will finish the year with 3% GDP growth.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week’s risk events, while participants also digested data including the latest Chinese trade figures.
ASX 200 was subdued amid somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner and as the RBA kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following a slew of mixed data from Japan, including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and disappointing revisions to Q3 GDP, while sentiment was also clouded by geopolitical tensions after Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming military radar at Japan’s Self-Defence Force jets.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming as gains in tech were overshadowed by losses in the big banks, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed.
US equity futures gradually edged higher but with the upside limited ahead of this week’s main risk events and central bank rate decisions, including the FOMC on Wednesday.
European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Friday. DAX futures dipped this morning after ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike.
FX
DXY marginally softened against its peers ahead of the FOMC mid-week, where the Fed is widely anticipated to cut rates, while weekend newsflow from the US was relatively quiet, although there were comments from US President Trump who said that they will work it out when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada.
EUR/USD eked marginal gains in quiet trade and with recent comments from ECB’s Rehn providing very little to shift the dial after he stated that they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term and that they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy. The pair later gained as ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike.
GBP/USD was little changed in the absence of any major pertinent drivers, with very little newsflow from the UK, aside from reports that former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September.
USD/JPY briefly retreated beneath the 155.00 handle amid a softer buck and as the latest wages data from Japan supported the case for a December BoJ rate hike, although Q3 GDP revisions were disappointing and showed a wider-than-feared contraction.
Antipodeans traded marginally higher with AUD kept afloat ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision, in which the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, while participants will be eyeing any hawkish clues to justify current money market pricing that the next move will be a hike in H2 next year.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0764 vs exp. 7.0747 (Prev. 7.0749)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures lacked conviction after slipping on Friday amid pressure in global peers and despite the slightly softer-than-expected Core PCE data, while the main focus this week is on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps and will provide its latest dot plot projections.
Bund futures remained subdued after slipping to a three-month low heading into German Industrial Production, with downticks seen after ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike.
10yr JGB futures struggled for direction amid a slew of data releases from Japan, including firmer-than-expected wages and the worse-than-feared downward GDP revisions for Q3.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures traded rangebound with demand contained amid a lack of major energy-specific catalysts and after the UAE’s ADNOC slightly lowered January Murban OSPs to USD 65.53/bbl (prev. USD 65.79/bbl in December).
Qatar’s Energy Minister said there will be a lot of demand for LNG going forward and that 600-700 MTPA will be required by 2035, while AI energy needs will drive growth in gas demand. Furthermore, he said plenty of oil capacity is available, and the first LNG train of Qatar’s North Field will come online in Q4 2026.
UAE’s ADNOC set the January Murban crude official selling price at USD 65.53/bbl (prev. USD 65.79/bbl in December).
Spot gold eked slight gains in a mild rebound from Friday’s trough and heading into a widely expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday, while data over the weekend showed that the PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month.
PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month with its bullion holding increasing by 30k troy ounces in October to around 74.12mln troy ounces, according to Bloomberg.
Copper futures were lacklustre amid the mixed risk appetite in the region and as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected rebound in Exports but Imports missed forecasts.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin gained overnight and returned to above the USD 91,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Politburo held a meeting on the economy and reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, with fiscal policy being more proactive, while it stated that the economic operation is generally stable and it will implement more active macro policies. Furthermore, it will continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, as well as stabilise employment, markets, and enterprises’ expectations.
Hong Kong held its legislative election on Sunday to elect 90 Legislative Council members from the 161 government-vetted candidates.
Australia Treasurer Chalmers said they will not extend electricity rebates and that the mid-year review will not be a mini budget, while he added that the review will include savings.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Nov) 111.68B vs. Exp. 100.15B (Prev. 90.07B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Nov) 5.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. -1.1%)
Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Nov) 1.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 1.0%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Nov) 792.57B (Prev. 640.49B)
Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Nov) 5.70% (Prev. -0.80%)
Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Nov) 1.70% (Prev. 1.40%)
Japanese GDP Revised QQ (Q3) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.4%)
Japanese GDP Rev QQ Annualised (Q3) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -1.8%)
Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Nov) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. 2.1%)
Japanese Real Cash Earnings YY (Oct) -0.7% vs Exp. -1.2% (Prev. -1.4%, Rev. -1.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Trump this month, while he said they believe there is a path to a workable peace with their Palestinian neighbours and that the sovereign power of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will always remain in Israel’s hands. Furthermore, he said political annexation of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion, and the status quo in the West Bank will remain for the foreseeable future, as well as noted that they are close to the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.
Palestinian PM Mustafa said Israel is stepping up the ‘creeping annexation’ of the West Bank and is intensifying efforts to make the West Bank unlivable and drive people out of the occupied territory, according to FT.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said Hamas is ready to hand over the Gaza administration to the Palestinian committee to advance the Gaza ceasefire deal. He also commented that Hamas disarmament in the first phase of the Gaza deal may not be a realistic and doable objective, while other steps are needed first.
US, Israel and Qatar were reportedly holding a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday to rebuild relations, according to Axios.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a substantive call with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while he stated they agreed on the next steps and format for talks with America, as well as noted that Ukraine is determined to continue working honestly with the US side in order to bring real peace. Zelensky separately commented that talks with US representatives on a peace plan were constructive but not easy.
Ukrainian military conducted a strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kucherivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and completed the capture of Rivne in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while they carried out a group strike on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and long-range drone complexes.
Russia and China held their third joint anti-missile drills on Russian territory.
Russia’s Kremlin said it welcomed the removal of Russia from the list of US direct threats in the new national security strategy.
OTHER
Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said Chinese military planes directed radar at Japan’s self-defence forces twice. It was separately reported that Japanese PM Takaichi said the incident involving Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese planes is extremely regrettable, while she said they will respond calmly and resolutely to the development.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s claims about the Japan Self-Defence Force’s dangerous flight are inaccurate, while he added it is very important to gain an understanding of other countries, including the US, regarding Japan’s stance.
Japan is reportedly frustrated at the Trump administration’s silence over the row with China and urged the US to give PM Takaichi more public support, according to FT.
Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said they are deeply concerned about the actions of China following the air incident near Japan, while Marles discussed with Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi common serious concerns about the situation in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Furthermore, they discussed how to work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, while Marles also commented that they want the most productive relationship they can achieve with China.
Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire in a border region on Friday.
Thai Army spokesman said their military launched airstrikes in the disputed border area with Cambodia.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer said former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September, while he described her as “hugely talented”.
Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike
ECB’s Rehn said they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term. Furthermore, he said they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy, and that the position on interest rates is not fixed.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in the ECB’s approach to monetary policy to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of a financial crisis, while he commented that reasserting the value of the European internal market means it can’t let inflation be its sole objective, but also growth and employment.
European Commission may announce a package to support the auto industry on December 16th, according to industry sources.
German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron are set to discuss the fate of the Franco-German fighter jet project FCAS in the week of Decemb
2.a NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
b. JAPAN
this is a big one!!
Magnitude 7.2 Quake Strikes Off Japan, Triggers Tsunami Alert
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 10:00 AM
A powerful earthquake struck offshore along Japan’s northern coast near Aomori and Hokkaido just moments ago.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a tsunami alert, warning that water surges could reach up to 3 meters (about 10 feet) along parts of the northeastern coast.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters that citizens in the affected areas must continue moving to higher ground following the magnitude 7.2 earthquake.
French Soldiers ‘Open Fire’ On Drones Threatening High-Secure Nuclear Submarine Base
Saturday, Dec 06, 2025 – 08:45 AM
A major security breach of French military airspace has been revealed Friday at a moment European officials have been hyping the ‘hybrid warfare’ threat from Russia, which has of late centered on many dozens of ‘mystery’ drone breaches in EU airspace especially near sensitive locations like airports.
French Marines opened fire on five unidentified drones that breached restricted airspace above a key nuclear submarine base Thursday evening, military officials said, according to EuroNews. But one official has said a “jammer” was hot and not necessarily live ammunition.
At around 7:30pm local at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany, which importantly is the command center for France’s fleet of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, radar detected incoming unauthorized UAVs at the high-secure facility.
The marine infantry battalion responsible for protecting the site immediately deployed anti-drone procedures, which included firing several shots at the aircraft in an effort to disable and bring them down.
As it wasn’t confirmed whether the drones were actually hit, the security forces initiated a large-scale search operation. Authorities still haven’t confirmed that any drones were brought down or recovered.
The drones may have been electronically thwarted or intercepted, based on vague references from French military officials, but not much in the way of details have been offered:
Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin confirmed that troops at the base intercepted an overflight, without detailing whether they fired shots, used electronic jamming or other means against the aerial intruders. It wasn’t clear who was responsible.
“Any overflight of a military site is prohibited in our country,” Vautrin said. “I want to commend the interception carried out by our military personnel at the Île Longue base.”
The installation is located near Brest in western France, and is guarded by more than 120 maritime forces alongside naval security forces, according to French media.
It hosts four ballistic missile submarines — Le Triomphant, Le Téméraire, Le Vigilant, and Le Terrible — and provides maintenance for the vessels which support the nation’s nuclear deterrent. According to official policy, at least one nuclear submarine is deployed on patrol at all times.
“No link with foreign interference has been established,” Frédéric Teillet, the public prosecutor in Rennes, was quoted in AFP as saying. He also indicated that no operators behind the drones have been apprehended or identified.
European officials have of late and without firm evidence been pointing the finger at Russian intelligence for a series of drone incidents near commercial and military airports and installations in northern Europe.
end
GERMANY
They give up nuclear energy for this garbage?
Germany Scales Back Offshore Wind Auctions After Latest Flop
Germany moved to reduce the capacity it will auction in its offshore wind tender in 2026, following the flop in the latest auction without a single bid made.
The German Parliament approved legislation narrowing the capacity in the 2026 tender to just 2.5 gigawatts (GW) to 5 GW, compared with an earlier plan of auctioning off 6 GW of offshore wind capacity and with as much as 10 GW offered in the auction in August.
The August offshore wind auction without government subsidies failed to attract a single bid, alarming the local offshore wind sector, which is calling for a fundamental redesign of Germany’s renewable energy auctions.
The Federal Network Agency’s auction for 10.1 GW offshore wind farms in the German part of the North Sea ended with no investor submitting a bid for any of the two proposed sites, the Federal Association for Offshore Wind Energy, BWO, said.
The auction flop signals that offshore wind power developers are wary of taking on riskier, zero-subsidy projects amid rising costs and supply chain issues.
In response to the failure in the August auction, Germany’s ruling coalition proposed reduced capacity up for grabs, and the proposal was approved by Parliament in a package also aimed at speeding up permitting and other approvals for offshore wind projects and power grid upgrades.
“Offshore wind is facing a difficult market environment, both internationally and in Germany,” the Economy Ministry said in a statement carried by Bloomberg. Surging costs and tight supply chains deter offshore wind expansion, the ministry noted.
Germany is expanding onshore wind installations but offshore wind capacity additions are nowhere near its targets.
Days before the flop in the August auction, German industry associations said that offshore wind power installations had stagnated in the first half of 2025. For offshore wind to reach the ambitious government targets of boosting capacity to 70 GW by 2045, policy makers need to fundamentally revise the tenders and ensure additional revenue and planning security, the German wind energy association, Bundesverband WindEnergie (BWE), and several other sector groups said.
END
GERMANY
they are kicking the can down the road again Sooner or later they must face up to the envitable:
Germany’s Bundestag on Friday finally approved a contentious pension reform package which was subject of weeks of internal revolt within Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s own Christian Democratic Union party. But this brings to an effective end yet another challenge in his turbulent first seven months in office.
The lower house passed the legislation, which rolls out a reform locking the state pension level at 48% of average wages through 2031, by a vote of 319 to 225, with 53 lawmakers abstaining.
Eighteen younger members of Merz’s center-right Union bloc, a number greater than his coalition’s parliamentary majority, had led an aggressive campaign of resistance to the plan. They argued it will place an unfair burden on younger generations, among other issues including hidden mounting costs.
We’ve for months documented that Germany’s public pension system is under mounting pressure: amid a deepening economic crisis, uncontrolled poverty migration, and a rapidly aging population, a shrinking workforce is being forced to shoulder an ever-growing burden. Meanwhile, the number of pension recipients continues to rise and has now smashed through the 21-million mark.
Merz has tried, dubiously, to demonstrate firm control over his coalition by pushing for an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members. However, Friday’s vote outcome spared him the embarrassment of passing the bill only with the help of opposition abstentions from the Left Party. On this, Politicoexplains:
Earlier this week, Germany’s far-left Die Linke (The Left) party announced its lawmakers would abstain from the vote, effectively ensuring its passage by reducing the overall number of votes needed to pass the pension legislation.
Still, Merz continued to try to secure the support of young conservatives in order to avoid the politically damaging impression that his coalition was dependent on indirect far-left support to get the package over the line.
Ultimately, only seven members of Merz’s conservative bloc voted against the package, giving the conservative leader a so-called chancellor’s majority.
He had entered office by criticizing the political chaos and internal strife which characterized former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government before it collapsed last year. Merz vowed to avoid such a bumpy road, but his stint thus far has been precisely that.
“This is not the end of our pension policy,” Merz said immediately after Friday’s vote. “It’s only the beginning.” He conceded that the controversy revealed just “how big the challenges are that our country faces.”
He further said his office has been engaged in “too many public discussions” – among the more pressing priorities of the country’s stagnant economy and the question of the migration crisis.
END
EUROPE
ROBERT H
America will attack Venezuela sooner or later. One thing driving the US nuts is that through cables near Venezuela the Russians have had access to all US servers for the last decade. This is a national security problem at the highest level. And the US wants to tackle China. Meanwhile the cornered political class of current Europe wants War with Russia to avoid the pitchforks that will come when they default on pensions and the like.
If you think the Gripen is a noble deal for Canada? It is more about Sweden economic survival than anything else because Europe is out of money. And they need to sell planes and technology. Not withstanding it is a better deal than the F35.
There will be bank runs in countries like France. Have no illusions it cannot be avoided. Thus the quest for war to blame Russia and galvanize the public to fight pointing the finger of blame upon Russia. Watch for the upcoming false flag event.
The problem for these fools is that Russia is ready to fight. And it will not be a fight like what we have seen in Ukraine.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
TBN ISRAEL/LAST 24 HR
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Hamas abducts major Gazan merchant, demands millions in ransom – KAN
Fadi a-Dayeb was forced to pay millions of shekels for his freedom, a now-deleted Facebook post claimed.
Fadi a-Dayeb, one of Gaza’s most affluent merchants, was abducted and held ransom by Hamas, according to a now-deleted Facebook post reviewed by KAN on Sunday.
Dayeb was forced to pay millions of shekels for his freedom, the post claimed.
“Hamas transfers all its money to Turkey. They know it’s a safe place for their leadership, they’re basing their future there,” a Gazan source told KAN.
A resident of Shajaiyah in eastern Gaza City, Dayeb has reportedly continued to maintain sales despite the war through continuing imports from Israel. While he mostly imports food, it was reported that he is also a successful distributor of electronics, fuel, and telephones.
Paying off the heads of Gazan clans
To clear his name, and attempt to maintain relations as the future ruling powers of the Gaza Strip remain unclear, he donated a total of $200,000 to the heads of different Gazan family clans.
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
RUSSIA/UK
UK Sanctions Russia After Inquiry Holds Putin Responsible For 2018 Novichok Poisonings
The UK issued new sanctions on Russia on Dec. 4, after a public inquiry into the death of a woman poisoned by the nerve agent Novichok in the UK in 2018 held Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for her demise.
London also summoned the Kremlin’s ambassador for a response to the inquiry’s findings and over what it called an “ongoing campaign of hostile activity” against the UK.
The public inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess concluded that Putin had ordered the 2018 Novichok attack by GRU agents on Sergei Skripal, a Russian defector and former GRU colonel, in Salisbury, Wiltshire, which eventually resulted in the death of Sturgess, who had no connection to Skripal or Russia.
“The Salisbury poisonings shocked the nation and today’s findings are a grave reminder of the Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement. “Dawn’s needless death was a tragedy and will forever be a reminder of Russia’s reckless aggression. My thoughts are with her family and loved ones.”
He said the UK “will always stand up to Putin’s brutal regime” and “call out his murderous machine for what it is.”
“Today’s sanctions are the latest step in our unwavering defense of European security, as we continue to squeeze Russia’s finances and strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table,” he added.
Along with the GRU in its entirety, London specifically sanctioned eight cyber military intelligence officers, as well as three other GRU officers, it said were responsible for orchestrating hostile activity in Ukraine and across Europe, including plotting an attack on Ukrainian supermarkets.
The latest sanctions build on a string of packages that have been issued by the UK against Moscow in support of its ally, Ukraine.
Russia has always denied any involvement in the Salisbury incident and dismissed the latest move by the UK.
“The Russian side does not recognize illegitimate sanctions imposed under far-fetched pretexts in circumvention of the UN Security Council, and reserves the right to retaliatory measures,” Moscow’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
“The British can be confident in the inevitability of such measures.”
Zakharova criticized British allegations that the phone of Skripal’s daughter, Yulia, was allegedly hacked by GRU agents.
“Britain announced that Yulia Skripal’s ‘electronic device was hacked.’ Why won’t Yulia Skripal herself speak out about what’s going on? How has she been living all these years? What’s happened to her father? Why is hacking ‘Yulia Skripal’s electronic device’ equated to ‘undermining the integrity of the state?’” she wrote on Telegram.
“I’m tired of these tasteless tales from the English crypt.”
Sturgess, 44, died after being exposed to Novichok, which had been left in a discarded perfume bottle in Amesbury, Wiltshire, in July 2018.
Her death followed the attempted murder of the Skripals and then-police officer Nick Bailey, who were poisoned in nearby Salisbury in March of that year.
According to the public inquiry, they were harmed when members of a Russian GRU military intelligence squad smeared the nerve agent on Sergei Skripal’s door handle.
In the inquiry’s final report, published on Dec. 4, Judge Lord Hughes concluded that the attempted assassination of Skripal “must have been authorized at the highest level, by President Putin.”
Hughes said GRU agents Alexander Petrov, Ruslan Boshirov, and Sergey Fedotov were “acting on instructions” when they carried out the attack.
Following the report’s publication, Lord Hughes said: “The conduct of Petrov and Boshirov, their GRU superiors and those who authorized the mission up to and including, as I have found, President Putin, was astonishingly reckless.
“They, and only they, bear moral responsibility for Dawn’s death.”
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
Former CDC Director Calls for Removal of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines
‘There’s too many unknowns,’ Dr. Robert Redfield said.
Print
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Commissioner Robert Redfield speaks during a White House Coronavirus Task Force press briefing in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on Nov. 19, 2020. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna should be pulled from circulation, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said in a new interview.
“I really would like to see the mRNA vaccine use curtailed, and personally, I’d like to see it eliminated, because I think there’s too many unknowns,” Dr. Robert Redfield told EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” in an interview that will be released on Dec. 9.
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines against COVID-19 utilize messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology. They were the first mRNA vaccines to receive clearance when regulators authorized them in late 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Redfield, 74, was the director of the CDC from March 2018 through Jan. 20, 2021, the end of President Donald Trump’s first term.
Redfield said he’s been treating patients who have so-called long COVID, as well as people suffering from vaccine injuries. He said he still favors a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine from Novavax but no longer advises receiving the mRNA shots even though he thinks they prevented deaths among seniors early in the pandemic.
“I don’t advocate the mRNA vaccines anymore, because as you get to the idea of vaccine injury, when I give you an mRNA vaccine, what I do is I turn your body into a spike protein production factory,” Redfield told The Epoch Times. “And spike protein is a very immunotoxic protein.”
Based on the current data, it is unclear how much spike protein one produces following vaccination and how long it is produced, Redfield said.
“My long COVID patients seem to get better quicker than my vaccine injury patients,” he said. “And some of us wonder whether or not that mRNA that has caused that injury … is still not transcriptionally active in producing new mRNA, in other words, with new spike protein.”
Patients with vaccine injuries have slowly been improving, and it’s important for people to realize they can ultimately recover from the injuries, Redfield said.
Spike protein generation and persistence has drawn attention from a number of experts, both inside and outside the government.
Dr. Vinay Prasad, a top Food and Drug Administration official, in the fall withdrew emergency authorizations for the COVID-19 vaccines. In one of the documents outlining narrower, updated approvals for the vaccines, Prasad wrote that “there is growing clinical evidence that spike protein which is generated as a result of or in the course of vaccination may persist for some time in a subset of individuals,” which could result in what is described by some as long COVID.
Charlotte Kuperwasser, a professor of developmental, molecular, and chemical biology at Tufts University School of Medicine, in a presentation to a federal vaccine committee in September, referenced studies that have found mRNA in various parts of the body weeks, months, and even years after vaccination. After the presentation, CDC advisers said the agency should adjust COVID-19 vaccine recommendations to an emphasis on individual factors, which the agency did.
Post-Vaccination Deaths
Redfield is aware that federal regulators recently determined that at least 10 child deaths were related to COVID-19 vaccination. Officials have not released details such as the causes of death, but Prasad said in a memo outlining the investigation that it was motivated by the awareness of FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary and other leaders of reports about the heart inflammation that the COVID-19 vaccines are known to cause.
“I had confidence that Marty Makary would go in and open up what we know about the vaccine injuries that are occurring, and make them available to the American public so they can re-evaluate the value of the COVID vaccine,” Redfield said.
He said later, “The recognition that they now seem to attribute at least 10 children’s deaths from the mRNA vaccines is a breath of fresh air.”
Spokespeople for Pfizer and Novavax did not respond to or declined to comment on the development, and a Moderna spokesman pointed to a company statement from September in which Moderna said that global surveillance data demonstrate the safety of its vaccine for children and that safety monitoring systems in the United States and other places “have not reported any new or undisclosed safety concerns in children or in pregnant women.”
Redfield also said he does not think there was ever a reason for children to receive one of the COVID-19 vaccines, given that most children suffered no or limited symptoms from COVID-19 and data indicated the vaccines did not prevent infection or transmission.
As a senior, though, the doctor still gets vaccinated on a regular basis.
“I have been vaccinated myself, eight times. The COVID vaccine has one of the biggest challenges. It doesn’t last,” he said. “So I get vaccinated every six months—but with the protein vaccine—because I’m still at risk. I’m at risk for hospitalization and death if I get COVID.”
GLOBAL ISSUES//USA MINNESOTA
This should be interesting!!
Dr. Oz Threatens To Pull Funding From Minnesota After $1 Billion In Medicaid Funding Was Stolen by Fraudsters
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) threatened to withhold federal funding from Minnesota after fraudsters allegedly stole more than $1 billion set aside for Medicaid programs.
CMS administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz ordered Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to follow a series of guidelines that crack down on the fraud and said that if the state does not comply, it will lose federal money.
“Either fix this in 60 days or start looking under your couch for spare change because we are done footing the bill for your incompetence,” Oz announced on Dec. 5.
CMS will require Minnesota officials to provide weekly updates for six months on the actions it is taking to stop fraud and to freeze enrollment of high-risk providers.
The Minnesota Department of Human Services was also ordered to create a corrective action plan outlining how it will prevent fraud going forward. Oz wants this plan submitted by the end of December.
“Our staff at CMS told me they’ve never seen anything like this in Medicaid—and everyone from Gov. Tim Walz on down needs to be investigated, because they’ve been asleep at the wheel,” Oz wrote in a X post on Dec. 5.
The Epoch Times reached out to Walz’s team for comment but did not hear back by publication time.
The CMS administrator blamed “bad actors” in Minnesota’s Somali community for being part of the fraudulent activity.
There are nearly 80,000 Somalis living in the state, with the majority of them in the Minneapolis–Saint Paul Twin Cities region,according to Minnesota Compass.
Oz specifically alleged fraudsters targeted a housing program that was designed to help disabled homeless people and a program that reimbursed therapy costs for families who have children with autism.
“The housing program was supposed to cost $2.6 million annually,” Oz said.
“Last year, it paid out over $100 million. The autism program ballooned from $3 million in 2018 to nearly $400 million in 2023. These scammers used stolen taxpayer money to buy flashy cars, purchase overseas real estate, and offer kickbacks to parents who enrolled their kids at fake autism treatment centers. Some of it may have even made its way to the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shebab.”
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) was asked about allegations that the stolen funds could be linked to terrorism during an appearance on CBS News’s “Face the Nation” on Dec. 7.
“If there was a linkage in that, the money that they had stolen going to terrorism, then that is a failure of the FBI and our court system in not figuring that out and basically charging them … with these charges,” Omar said.
“And so I do know that for many years, this sort of like alarm that there is money being transferred through the airport in bags and going to terrorism has all—that accusation has always existed. There has never been here and there in those accusations. But if that is the case, if money from U.S. tax dollars is being sent to help with terrorism in Somalia, we want to know, and we want those people prosecuted, and we want to make sure that that doesn’t ever happen again.”
Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced plans to ramp up activities in the Twin Cities region after President Donald Trump rescinded temporary protected status for Somali immigrants living in the state.
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey dismissed the Trump administration’s immigration efforts and accused it of spending too much time “terrorizing certain groups within our community.”
Utica coach Kevin Dineen has pancreatic cancer; JA: Miss Jamaica “isn’t doing well” since her collapse on stage; NZ boxer David Nyika’s fiancée Lexy Thornberry has head/neck cancer; more
Cancer-Stricken ‘Dilbert’ Creator in Hospital After Cutting Show Short
November 27, 2025
Dilbert creator and outspoken Trump supporter Scott Adams posted a video from the hospital on Wednesday instead of his daily show, Real Coffee with Scott Adams. “Hello, people. So normally I would be doing my ‘Coffee with Scott Adams’ live stream — but you can see the problem,” he said. “I’m tied to a chair in the hospital. Well, velcroed to a chair. I suppose I could escape if I wanted to. I’ll be out, probably, I think, later today,” said Adams, 68. “Should be fine. Small-ish problems … I just want to go home … And then what? I don’t know.” In one difficult section, Adams cries in pain. “Ow. Ow. Ow. My leg hurts. You wouldn’t believe all the antibiotics that are poking into me,” he said. Adams announced in May that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer and the disease had metastasized to his bones. At the time, Adams predicted he would not live through the summer. “My life expectancy is maybe this summer. I expect to be checking out from this domain sometime this summer,” he said. He has continued to stream Coffee with Scott Adams while receiving treatment. On Tuesday, Adams cut off his show early, citing exhaustion after a “tough night and tough morning.” He put on an oxygen tube halfway through the shortened stream.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
In a heartbreaking and brutally honest video statement, Dilbert series creator Scott Adams publicly admitted that those who refused COVID-19 vaccines made the right choice—while his own decision to take the shots may now cost him his life…
7 months ago · 71 likes · 13 comments · Mike Adams
Former Utica Comets coach diagnosed with cancer
December 1, 2025
UTICA, NY – Former Utica Comets Head Coach Kevin Dineen announced on social media Sunday that he has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Dineen issued this statement on Facebook: “This Thanksgiving feels a bit different. A few months ago, I was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. It has put a lot into perspective, most of all how lucky I am to be surrounded by so many supportive family and friends.” He took over coaching duties of the Utica Comets of the AHL in August 2021. He was relieved of his coaching duties in Utica in November 2024 after the team did not get a win in their first nine games of the season.
Good News: Denver Broncos linebacker returns after cancer treatment
November 30, 2025
Denver Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton is set to return to the football field on Sunday night after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. The co-captain, who leads the Broncos in tackles, even played in an NFL game after receiving the diagnosis, before being sidelined for weeks during his treatment.
Ottawa Charge head coach Carla MacLeod plans to remain with the PWHL [ice hockey] team while battling breast cancer. MacLeod, 43, shared the news of her recent diagnosis through the team’s website on Sunday. MacLeod, who has coached Ottawa since the league’s inaugural season in 2024, is also the head coach for the Czechia women’s team that is preparing for the upcoming Winter Olympics in Italy.
Miss Jamaica ‘Isn’t Doing as Well’ as Hoped, Family Says in New Condition Update
November 23, 2025
Miss Jamaica, Dr. Gabrielle Henry, tumbled off the stage at the Miss Universe competition in Bangkok, Thailand. While strutting down the stage, Henry suddenly fell. She was taken away on a stretcher, according to viral videos, and another woman, Fatima Bosch, went on to win the Miss Universe pageant. Now, concern is growing for Henry. Her official Instagram page posted a condition update from her sister, who revealed that the beauty queen isn’t doing as well as hoped. The exact nature of her illness has not been revealed. Henry “was rushed to the Paolo Rangsit Hospital, where medical professionals are attending to her care and have advised that she is not suffering from any life-threatening injuries; however, they continue to conduct tests to ensure her full recovery,” the Miss Jamaica pageant noted.
Ex-Yes Keyboardist Rick Wakeman Says Recent Brain Surgery “Doesn’t Seem To Have Affected My Piano Playing”
November 23, 2025
Rick Wakeman revealed online that he is currently recovering from corrective brain surgery after medical professionals diagnosed him with normal pressure hydrocephalus, a neurological disorder that occurs when cerebrospinal fluid builds up inside the skull and presses on the brain. A “pleased” Wakeman called the surgery ” very successful.” “I am now recuperating at home being cared for by my lovely wife and our wonderful furry healing animals!” he wrote. While needing plenty of time to rest, the progressive rock legend says his surgeon has assured him that he should be “perfectly fine” to travel to the U.S. for his March 2026 tour and “all future engagements after that.”
Former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron Reveals Cancer Diagnosis: ‘You Always Dread Hearing Those Words’
November 24, 2025
Former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has disclosed that he was diagnosed with prostate cancer earlier this year. Speaking to The Times in an interview published Sunday, Nov. 23, the 59-year-old said he decided to get tested after encouragement from his wife, Samantha. She had heard Soho House founder Nick Jones discuss his own prostate cancer diagnosis on the radio, which prompted her to urge Cameron to book an appointment.
The old coaching legend [72] has been diagnosed with brain cancer, and is severely impaired in both mobility and speech. What the future holds, no one knows.
As it was confirmed that the sudden collapse of broadcaster Kim Soo-yong was caused by acute myocardial infarction, the belatedly revealed activities of the ‘lifesavers’ who saved him are drawing great admiration. His agency, Media Lab Siso, announced on the 18th, “Mr. Kim Soo-yong was diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction and successfully underwent angioplasty at Hanyang University Guri Hospital,” adding, “He is currently recovering stably in a general ward.”
Kiwi boxer David Nyika’s fiancée Lexy Thornberry diagnosed with cancer
November 27, 2025
Auckland – Kiwi boxer David Nyika’s fiancée Lexy Thornberry has been diagnosed with cancer. Thornberry, who was a contestant on Love Island Australia, revealed she had head and neck cancer earlier this month. “I have always been a healthy person, and was an athlete my entire life,” the 24-year-old said.
For how could an unvaccinated woman as reported, have mRNA detected in blood and placenta? where did she get it from? how could mRNA vaccine segments be detected in 40% of these women (2 or 3 of 5)?
If we do not double count blood and placental detection, then its 40%…in 40% of unvaccinated women, mRNA vaccine was detected…how come? how did it get there if not for SHEDDING!
Can Malone answer this? Or Bourla? Or Bancel? Or maybe Weissman? Who do we hold responsible for this given the mRNA vaccine has been shown to be deadly? Why would RFK Jr. and Makary et al. refuse to remove this mRNA from US market? why?
end
NEWSWIZE/NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Oil Reclaims Key Levels, Forcing Shorts To Blink
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 08:05 AM
WTI moved back above its 50-day moving average Friday and is fighting to hold above $60 this morning.
A market that spent weeks obsessing over punishing oversupply is now being forced to respect a technical line that encourages short covering rather than fresh selling.
As Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball writes, a return to a war premium is warranted as a genuine peace deal between the Ukraine and Russia remains elusive. Ukrainian negotiators are headed into another round of talks in Florida, while Russia is already objecting to parts of the US-backed plan and waiting on a fresh readout from the discussions.
Traders are watching the process for any sign of a settlement that could eventually ease sanctions and boost Russian supply as covered by colleagues Grant Smith, Alex Longley and Will Kubzansky. However, with Ukraine still striking targets like the Syzran refinery and Temryuk port and Washington lobbying Europe to tighten the screws on Moscow’s frozen assets, a deal looks far away.
At the same time, the technical picture has turned more supportive.
WTI has pushed back through its 50-day moving average, a key line that many treat as short-term support.
Meantime, low implied volatility and firmer prompt spreads signal a better balanced or slightly tighter near-term market, rather than one braced for a sudden collapse.
The longer-term anchor on oil remains that surplus story. Saudi Aramco has cut its flagship Arab Light official selling price to Asia to the lowest level since the early-2020s, admitting that refiners have plenty of choice and need an incentive to take Saudi barrels over others.
Sell-side research still leans negative on oil, with banks like Macquarie flagging oil multi-million-barrel-a-day surplus and sketching Brent-in-the-$50s scenarios as storage builds and refining margins compress.
That kind of fundamentally bearish backdrop implies positioning is still skewed short among macro funds and CTAs.
That’s why the pain trade now points higher – if WTI can hold above its 50-day moving average and the $60 level in a low-vol, firmer-spread backdrop, the current bounce may force further short covering barring fresh catalysts.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
THAILAND/CAMBODIA
Fighting breaks aa=out again
(zerohedge)
Trump-Brokered Ceasefire Falters As Thailand Launches F-16 Airstrikes On Cambodia
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 06:55 AM
Thailand launched fighter-jet bombing raids against Cambodian positions along their highly contested border, risking a complete unraveling of the ceasefire brokered by President Trump.
Reuters cites Thai officials who claim Cambodian troops first opened fire across several border positions with machine-guns and heavy weapons, killing two Thai soldiers and wounding eight. The attack prompted Thai F-16 strikes, combined with ground operations, against Cambodian forces.
Bangkok claims Cambodia violated the ceasefire deal and was positioning additional troops and long-range weapons that could threaten high-value civilian assets along the border, including an airport and a hospital.
Thailand said it launched airstrikes into Cambodia as fighting broke out in multiple areas along their disputed border, after both countries accused the other of breaching a ceasefire brokered by President Trump. More here: https://t.co/pM1S5gvuYYpic.twitter.com/KT6adyIVja
Cambodia’s defense ministry stated that Thai forces launched attacks on two locations. Those officials added that Cambodian troops had not responded.
The heavily disputed 800-kilometer (about 500-mile) Thailand-Cambodia border is rooted in long-standing territorial claims around the Preah Vihear temple area. In July, 40 people were killed, and hundreds of thousands were displaced in a bloody border skirmish between the two countries. The conflict eventually paused after a Trump-backed ceasefire deal.
Malaysia’s prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, called for “both sides to exercise maximum restraint, maintain open channels of communication, and make full use of the mechanisms in place,” in an X post earlier.
Ibrahim continued, “The renewed fighting risks unraveling the careful work that has gone into stabilizing relations between the two neighbours.”
“Our region cannot afford to see long-standing disputes slip into cycles of confrontation,” he said.
This border skirmish will likely prompt a Truth Social post from Trump threatening both sides with tariffs to quell the fighting and uphold his ceasefire deal from the fall.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1652 UP 0.0009 PTS OR 8 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE ALL GREEN
USA/ YEN 155.42 upp 0.070 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3327 DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3820 DOWN 0.0030 CDN DOLLAR UP 30 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 21.27 PTS OR 0.54%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1,25%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.18%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1.25%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.27 POINTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.18 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 67.63 PTS OR 0.13%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4206.40
silver:$58.46
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.94 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.167 % UP 9 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.967% UP 2 FULL POINTS AND 10/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.391 UP 4 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.315 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.544 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8463 UP 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1647 UP 0.0010 OR 10 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.71 UP 0.480 OR YEN IS DOWN 48 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.508 UP 9 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.214 UP 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.3813
Hawkish Lean Sparks Cross-Market Pain, Dollar Gain
WRAP UP;
Treasuries and JPY weighed by Japanese earthquake while tech outperforms – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 04:00 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold down
REAR VIEW: NY FED SCE sees inflation expectations unchanged and households more pessimistic on current & future financial conditions; US reportedly to allow NVDA H200 chip exports to China; Decent US 3yr note auction; 7+ magnitude earthquake strikes Northern Japan; ECB’s Schnabel ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike; IBM to acquire CFLT; PSKY launches all-cash tender offer for WBD.
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MARKET WRAP
US stocks were mostly lower to start the week, with all sectors but Technology in the red. Communications and Consumer Discretionary were the worst performers, the former weighed by downside in Alphabet (GOOGL, -2.3%) and Netflix (NFLX, -3.4% due to an attractive all-cash PSKY bid for WBD). Tesla (TSLA, -3.4%) weighed on Consumer Discretionary after receiving a downgrade at Morgan Stanley due to its high valuation, a more cautious EV outlook, and non-auto growth being priced in. A blip of reprieve was seen for US indices following a Semafor report that the US is to allow NVIDIA (NVDA, +1.7%) H200 chip exports to China. That said, the move swiftly pared for US indices, and mostly did for NVIDIA as well. US updates included the NY Fed SCE showing consumer inflation expectations across 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr horizons unchanged, while pessimism increased surrounding current and future financial conditions. In FX, the DXY was flat to start the week with currency-specific newsflow light. NZD outperformance was perhaps due to Chinese exports topping November expectations, while the Yen was weighed by a 7.6 earthquake striking Japan. The earthquake, in combination with hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel, were the dominant factors behind the pressure across global fixed, with T-Notes managing to trim losses into settlement. In the US afternoon, the US sold USD 58bln of 3yr notes, which was met with strong indirect demand; reaction was muted. For commodities, crude prices settled lower amid little newsflow, while gold & silver incurred marginal downside.
US
NY FED SCE: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for November saw the 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 3.2%, 3%, and 3%, respectively. Within the report, the perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated notably, with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off Y/Y. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly. On the labour footing, mean unemployment expectations improved slightly, decreasing by 0.4ppt to 42.1%. Lastly, perceptions of credit access vs. a year ago deteriorated, with a decrease in the net share of respondents who expect that credit will be easier to obtain a year from now.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 8+ TICKS LOWER AT 112-08
US yields rise in tandem with global bonds amid a hawkish ECB Schnabel and a 7.6 earthquake striking Japan. At settlement, 2-year +1.7bps at 3.581%, 3-year +2.7bps at 3.615%, 5-year +3.6bps at 3.752%, 7-year +3.9bps at 3.945%, 10-year +3.3bps at 4.172%, 20-year +3.0bps at 4.785%, 30-year +2.5bps at 4.817%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -1.3bps at 2.729%, 3-year BEI -2.3bps at 2.442%, 5-year BEI -1.2bps at 2.248%, 10-year BEI -0.2bps at 2.249%, 30-year BEI +0.3bps at 2.228%.
THE DAY: Treasuries were gradually sold through overnight trade before accelerating in the US morning. Driving the overnight/EU move were hawkish remarks from the ECB’s Schnabel, who said she’s ‘comfortable’ on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon. The remarks pressured global bonds, particularly Bunds. Thereafter, a 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck Japan, sparking concerns about supply-side driven inflationary pressures, and as such, added to downside in the space. That said, the Japanese government later downgraded the tsunami warning to a tsunami advisory after the earthquake, and JGBs Dec’25 managed to recover from the earlier downside. Domestic updates for T-Notes were limited to the NY Fed SCE and the 3-year auction, with both events having a muted impact on price action. The NY Fed survey saw consumer inflation expectations across all durations unchanged, while pessimism over current and future financial situations in November grew. Meanwhile, the 3-year auction was strong, led by Indirect demand. T-Notes hit lows of 112-02+ after the earthquake in Japan before trimming losses into settlement.
SUPPLY:
Notes
US sold USD 58bln of 3yr notes
Overall, a strong 3yr note auction supported by Indirect demand and highlighted by the 0.8bps stop through, again above the six-auction stop-through of 0.2bps. B/C, however, dropped to 2.6x from 2.85x, but in keeping with the average. Dealer demand fell to 9.03% from 9.7%, a result of a jump in Indirect demand to 72% from 63%, now comfortably above the 62.5% average. Direct demand dropped to 19.00% below the 24.5% average from 27.3%.
Bills
US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.650%, B/C 2.73x; sold 6-month bills at high rate of 3.580%, B/C 3.01x.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 21.5bps (prev. 21bps), January 29bps (prev. 29bps), March 35bps (prev. 36bps).
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 1.7bln (prev. 1.485bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 8)
NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 0.000bln (prev. 0.002bln) across two operations.
EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 88bln (prev. 87bln) on December 5th.
SOFR at 3.93% (prev. 3.92%), volumes at USD 3.221tln (prev. 3.300tln) on December 5th.
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED USD 1.20 LOWER AT USD 58.88/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 1.26 LOWER AT USD 62.49/BBL
The crude complex started the week on the back foot with benchmarks settling at lows, as focus resides around Ukraine/Russia updates. On Monday, Zelensky met key European allies as he faces US pressure to reach a swift peace deal with Russia, and while little new was reported, the UK Government stated leaders all agreed that “now is a critical moment and must continue to ramp up support to Ukraine and economic pressure on Putin”. While benchmarks moved lower throughout the duration of the US session, WTI and Brent saw a little boost to pare some losses, amid Iraq energy officials noting Iraq shuts down entire west Qurna 2 production of ~460kbpd due to export pipelines leak. Overall, newsflow was light on Monday ahead of a raft of central bank decisions this week, namely the Fed on Wednesday. For the record, WTI traded between USD 58.68-60.30/bbl and Brent USD 62.34-63.96/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.35% at 6,847, NDX -0.25% at 25,628, DJI -0.45% at 47,739, RUT -0.02% at 2,251
SECTORS: Communication Services -1.77%, Materials -1.66%, Consumer Discretionary -1.53%, Utilities -1.30%, Health -1.27%, Energy -1.04%, Consumer Staples -0.90%, Real Estate -0.65%, Financials -0.39%, Industrials -0.14%, Technology +0.93%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.01% at 5,724, Dax 40 +0.11% at 24,056, FTSE 100 -0.23% at 9,645, CAC 40 -0.08% at 8,108, FTSE MIB +0.00% at 43,433, IBEX 35 +0.14% at 16,712, PSI +0.02% at 8,200, SMI +0.37% at 12,984, AEX -0.25% at 945.
STOCK SPECIFICS
Paramount Skydance (PSKY): Launched an all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) for USD 30/shr; proposed deal for USD 108.4bln.
US to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chip exports to China, Semafor reports, according to a person with knowledge of the plan.
Confluent (CFLT): IBM confirmed it is to acquire Confluent for USD 31/shr in cash.
Carvana (CVNA), CRH (CRH), Comfort Systems (FIX): Will join SPX BMO on Dec. 22nd
General Motors (GM): Upgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
NextEra Energy (NEE): Co. & Google Cloud announce strategic energy & tech partnership to accelerate AI growth.
Netflix (NFLX), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD): Trump voiced potential antitrust concerns regarding Netflix’s planned $72bln acquisition of WBD.
Tesla (TSLA): NHTSA opened a preliminary evaluation into TSLA vehicles using FSD after 62 complaints, 4 media reports & 14 SGO reports alleging traffic violations; downgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ due to its high valuation (30x 2030 EBITDA), a more cautious EV outlook, and non-auto growth being priced in, they await a better entry point.
Unilever (UL): Chair of Ben & Jerry’s independent board, Anuradha Mittal, refuses to resign despite Co. pressure.
Marvell (MRVL): Microsoft is reportedly in talks to design custom chips with Broadcom, switching its business from Marvell.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Downgraded at JPMorgan to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’.
FX
The Dollar saw slight gains on Monday, albeit in thin newsflow, as participants largely await the FOMC on Wednesday, whereby they are widely expected to cut by 25bps. Back to today, in the latest NY Fed SCE for November, 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr inflation expectations were all left unchanged at 3.2%, 3%, and 3%, respectively; households were more pessimistic on current and future financial situations in November, but labour market expectations improved in November. DXY traded between 98.792-99.229, as it very much is the calm before the storm.
G10 FX performance was mixed against the Greenback. NZD, EUR, and GBP were all flat, while AUD,CAD, JPY, and CHF saw similar weakness, with little currency-specific headlines. Despite saying that, USD/JPY hit a peak of 155.98, and the Yen was hit after a 7.6-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, with a tsunami advisory issued. Elsewhere, the Euro saw strength as ECB’s Schnabel said she is ‘comfortable’ on bets that next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon.
As mentioned, the Kiwi was one of the gainers and perhaps benefiting as participants digest positive Chinese exports data, although imports disappointed. Recapping the metrics, Chinese exports surged 5.9% in November (exp. 3.8%, prev. -1.1%), and Imports rose just 1.9% (exp. 3%, prev. 1%).
Regarding EUR/USD, ING still believes it heads to 1.22 by end-2026 as lower US rates, lower energy prices and, crucially, the arrival of German fiscal stimulus support higher valuation levels for the euro. ING adds that, in Europe, this will be played out in a higher EUR/GBP and perhaps even a higher EUR/CHF, too. Elsewhere in Europe, the think tank believes the Swedish krona should be the outperformer, supported by fiscal stimulus in an election year. ING also continues to like the Czech koruna, amid strong domestic growth and high real interest rates.
USA DATA RELEASES
NY Fed Consumer Survey Shows Steady Inflation, Despite Soaring Expectations For Medical Care Costs
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 01:00 PM
US consumer inflation expectations were stable in November while perceptions about households current financial situations deteriorated “notably” and perceptions about job prospects improved, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Median inflation expectations a year ahead was little changed at 3.2% last month, down from 3.24% in November, while expected inflation three and five years ahead remained at 3%, according to responses in the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, published Monday.
Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point for food (to 5.9%), 0.6 percentage point for gas (to 4.1%), 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care (to 10.1%), 0.2 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.4%) and by 1.1 percentage points for rent (to 8.3%). Of note, the reading for the expected change in the cost of medical care is the highest since January 2014, shortly after the series began.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Former NY Fed Repo Guru: Powell Will Announce $45 Billion In Bill Purchases On Wednesday//meaning/consequences
The headline “Former NY Fed Repo Guru: Powell Will Announce $45 Billion In Bill Purchases On Wednesday” originates from a ZeroHedge article published on December 6, 2025, citing insights from Mark Cabana, a former New York Federal Reserve expert on repo market operations (now a Bank of America rates strategist). “Wednesday” refers to December 10, 2025, the date of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a policy update.In essence, this is a prediction of a subtle shift in Federal Reserve policy toward stealth quantitative easing (QE) focused on Treasury bills (short-term U.S. government debt). Here’s the breakdown:
$45 billion in bill purchases: This would involve the Fed buying approximately $45 billion worth of Treasury bills per month starting in early 2026 (likely January). Cabana breaks it down as:
~$20 billion/month to accommodate “natural” growth in the economy and banking system reserves.
An additional ~$25 billion/month to counteract the ongoing drain from quantitative tightening (QT), where the Fed has been allowing up to $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet each month since 2022.
Context: The Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by over $1.5 trillion during QT, pushing bank reserves to around $2.8–3 trillion (near the lower end of the “ample reserves” threshold). Recent pressures—like surging Treasury issuance to rebuild the Treasury General Account (TGA) post-debt ceiling issues and tax season liquidity squeezes—have spiked repo rates and strained short-term funding markets, echoing the 2019 repo crisis. Cabana argues this move is necessary to stabilize reserves without fully reversing QT, framing it as a “plumbing fix” rather than aggressive stimulus.
Not full QE: Unlike the massive $120 billion/month asset purchases during COVID, this is targeted at short-term bills to avoid inflating longer-term bond prices or signaling panic. It’s more like a “maintenance mode” to keep liquidity flowing smoothly.
This aligns with recent Fed signals: Powell’s October 2025 speech acknowledged reserves are “adequate” but noted QT’s endgame, and September FOMC minutes discussed slowing redemptions if strains emerge. Market tools like Polymarket price a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut on December 10, with this bill-buying as a complementary easing tool.ConsequencesIf announced, this policy tweak would mark the Fed’s quiet pivot from three years of tightening to a more neutral stance, with ripple effects across markets, the economy, and global finance.
Below is a table summarizing key short- and long-term consequences, based on historical precedents (e.g., 2019 repo interventions) and current analyst views:
Category
Short-Term (1–3 Months)
Long-Term (6–12+ Months)
Financial Markets
– Bond Yields: T-bill rates dip 5–10 basis points, easing short-term borrowing costs; 10-year Treasury yields could fall to 4.0–4.2% amid risk-on sentiment. – Stock Rally: S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 3–5%, fueled by lower discount rates and liquidity boost; small-caps (Russell 2000) and cyclicals outperform. – Dollar Weakens: USD index drops 1–2% vs. majors (EUR, JPY), boosting exporters and EM currencies.
– Sustained Easing: Reserves climb above $3 trillion by mid-2026, reducing volatility in money markets. – Asset Inflation Risk: Equities and crypto (e.g., Bitcoin to $100K+) grind higher if paired with rate cuts, but over-reliance could amplify bubbles.
Banking System
– Liquidity Relief: Banks face less pressure from TGA rebuild (~$800B) and $1T+ quarterly Treasury auctions; repo facility usage drops from recent $13.5B peaks. – Credit Flows: Easier interbank lending supports holiday-season lending.
– Reserve Stability: Prevents “scarcity” scenarios, but could encourage riskier lending if paired with SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) relaxations starting January 2026.
Economy
– Growth Boost: Marginal lift to Q4 2025 GDP (0.1–0.2%) via cheaper corporate funding; consumer spending holds firm with sentiment ticking up. – Inflation Neutral: Minimal passthrough since bills are short-dated; core PCE stays ~2.5–3%.
– Soft Landing Aid: Supports employment (unemployment ~4.2%) without overheating; risks mild reacceleration if fiscal spending (e.g., tariffs) interacts poorly.
Global/Policy Risks
– EM Boost: Capital inflows to high-yield currencies; commodity prices (oil, gold) rise 2–4%. – Fed Credibility: Markets cheer the pragmatism, but hawks criticize it as “backdoor easing” amid Trump’s incoming administration.
– Policy Uncertainty: If inflation ticks to 3.1% (NY Fed gauge), Powell may pause cuts, sparking volatility; ties into broader debates on Fed independence.
Overall, this is bullish for risk assets in the near term—echoing the 2019 repo ops that preceded a 30% S&P rally—but it’s no panacea. It underscores the Fed’s balancing act: stabilizing plumbing without reigniting inflation, especially with fiscal wildcards like potential 2026 tariffs. Investors should watch Powell’s December 10 presser for confirmation; if it materializes, expect a “Santa Claus” year-end melt-up.
end
AI
The End Of Panic, Powell’s “Cut That Saved Christmas”, & Not Your Grandparent’s VIX
Searching the web
The End of Panic: Markets Breathe Easier After Fed’s Dovish Pivot
The phrase “The End Of Panic” captures the collective sigh of relief rippling through financial markets this week, as the Federal Reserve’s signals have shifted from hawkish headwinds to a more accommodative breeze. After months of sticky inflation data and tariff-induced jitters, Jerome Powell’s recent comments have effectively slammed the door on the “Powell Panic” that gripped traders in late 2024—when a surprise hawkish tilt post-rate cut sent the VIX spiking 58% in a single day. Fast-forward to December 2025: With CPI cooling to 2.9% and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%, the Fed is no longer the villain in this story. Instead, it’s positioning itself as the hero delivering liquidity just in time for the holidays.Key drivers behind this pivot:
Labor market softening without collapse: September’s jobs report came in at just 119K (well below expectations), pushing the Fed’s hand toward easing to avoid a hard landing.
End of Quantitative Tightening (QT): Powell confirmed on December 1 that the Fed is halting its balance sheet runoff, injecting an estimated $1.5 trillion back into the system. This isn’t just a tweak—it’s a “return to normal” after three years of shrinkage, freeing up reserves and lowering yields on high-risk bonds (CCC-rated spreads are compressing).
Divided but dovish FOMC: Minutes from the November meeting revealed a split—some governors pushed for a 50 bps cut, others none—but the consensus leaned toward action amid a “data fog” from government shutdown delays. Powell reiterated: “We’re not on a preset path,” but markets are pricing it as one.
The result? Odds of a December 25 bps cut have surged from 30% a week ago to over 85%, per CME FedWatch. This isn’t premature easing; it’s damage control for a policy lag that’s left consumer spending at records but growth sputtering.Powell’s “Cut That Saved Christmas”: A Santa Rally on Steroids?Enter the second pillar: Powell’s “Cut That Saved Christmas.” Coined by Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett in a recent note, this quip nails the timing perfectly. With Black Friday sales smashing records and holiday retail poised for a boom, a December cut would act like eggnog for risk assets—sweet, boozy, and impossible to resist. Garrett’s take: “We’re almost there,” but expect hawkish undertones to temper the euphoria (e.g., warnings on tariffs inflating prices).Why “saved”? Without it, the market’s shallow 4% pullback from highs could’ve snowballed into a grinch-like rout. Instead:
Equity flows reversing: S&P 500 futures are up 1.2% post-Powell, with rotation from mega-cap tech to value/defensive plays.
Bond market front-running: 10-year yields dipped to 4.1%, signaling bets on sustained cuts into 2026 (two more projected, per dot plot).
Crypto’s turbo boost: Bitcoin’s correlation to high-yield bond yields is stark—yields fall, BTC flourishes. With QT ending, expect $150K+ narratives to heat up as liquidity floods in.
Critics like JPMorgan warn of “crowded trades,” but history favors the bulls: Similar setups in 2019 and 2023 delivered 10-15% year-end rallies. Powell’s not just cutting rates; he’s ensuring the punch bowl overflows for Wall Street’s holiday party.Not Your Grandparent’s VIX: Tame Fear in a Tamed MarketFinally, “Not Your Grandparent’s VIX” is the mic-drop on volatility’s evolution. Back in the day (think 2008 or 2020), a VIX spike meant Armageddon—30+ levels triggered cascading liquidations and panic. Today’s VIX? It’s a sleepy housecat, hovering at 12-14 even amid tariff talks and election noise. Why the glow-down?
Era
VIX Peak Trigger
Max Spike
Outcome
Grandparents’ (1987/2008)
Black Monday / GFC
150+ / 80+
Systemic crashes, 50%+ drawdowns
Parents’ (2020 COVID)
Pandemic lockdowns
85
35% S&P drop, then V-shaped recovery
Yours (2024-25)
Powell hawkish surprise / Tariffs
25 (Dec ’24)
4% pullback, quick rebound; now ~13
Structural shifts: Post-2022, centralization (e.g., CTAs delevering automatically) and light positioning (hedge funds cut exposure pre-Fed events) keep spikes contained. The VIX closed at its lowest since Christmas Eve 2024 after Powell’s August dovish speech.
Sentiment disconnect: Fear & Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” (9) in November, yet the S&P is +37% from April lows. This “sentiment reset” (profit-taking + macro noise) often precedes legs higher, not crashes.
Modern fragility: Exchanges’ leverage races bred $1B+ liquidation flushes (e.g., November crypto wipeout), but these now mark capitulation bottoms, not tops. Whales shorted into strength, retail panicked—classic shakeout.
In short, the VIX isn’t the fear gauge of yore; it’s a precision tool for tactical trades. Current levels scream “buy the dip,” not “bunker down.”Wrapping It Up: Jolly Times Ahead, But Eyes Wide OpenThis trifecta—panic’s funeral, a festive Fed cut, and a VIX on chill pills—sets up a textbook Santa Rally. Risk assets could rip 5-10% by year-end, with crypto leading the charge on QE whispers. But don’t spike the eggnog yet: Sticky inflation (still “uncomfortably high” per FOMC) and Trump’s tariff blitz could reintroduce volatility. Powell’s bazooka buys time, not immunity.For now, though? Ho ho hold your positions. The grinch is on vacation.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report December 8, 2025 Issue 7634
Independent View of the News
On Friday, Japan’s 2-year rose above 1.03% and the 10-year hit 1.95%. These are the highest yields since 2007. The yen/$ rallied 0.4% to 154.55. USZs were -19/32 at 12:46 ET. The US 10-year hits 4.143%; the 30-year hit 4.8%, the highest yield since September.
Sept Personal Income 0.4% m/m, 0.3% m/m expected; Spending 0.3% m/m but prior revised to 0.5% from 0.6%; Real Spending 0.0%, 0.1% expected, prior revised to 0.2% from 0.4%
PCE Price Index 0.3% m/m & 2.8% y/y; Core PCE Price Index 0.2% m/m & 2.8% y/y (all as expected)
Dec UM Sentiment 53.3 (52 exp), 51 prior, 1st increase in 5 months, Current Conditions 50.7 (52.5 exp), Expectations (55 53 exp), 1-year Inflation 4.1% (4.4%), 5-10-year Inflation 3.2% (2.4% exp)
Oct Consumer Credit $10.48n; Sept LET -0.3%
Precious metal rallied smartly on Friday, with silver soaring to a record 59.3336. Gold hit 4259.34. Bitcoin was –2.4% at 9:41 ET.
The Friday Rally appeared early in NYSE trading; Fangs and trading sardines led the rally, of course. However, after the first hour of NYSE trading, selling appeared.
ESZs traded a tad higher when they opened on Thursday night but quickly declined to modest losses until they broke higher aft 19:24 ET. ESZs then labore higher until they hit a peak of 6886.25 (+19.50) at 3:20 ET on the European open rally. The pro dump appeared early; ESZs then eased lower until they hit 6876.00 at 5:57 ET.
After trading in a tight 6-handle range, ESZs broke lower at 8:17 ET and hit a daily low of 6856.75 (-10.00) at 8:49 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening was robust; ESZs soared to a daily high of 6905.00 at 10:30 ET. US bonds and Bitcoin’s weakness enhanced the 2nd Hour Reversal.
Bitcoin sank to -4.38% ($88,135) at 11:42 ET. Dec Gold turned negative at 11:11 ET and was -15.20 at 11:18 ET. Natural Gas was +8.3% on the day at 11:05 ET due to the record cold wave in much of the US.
ESZs sank to 6870.50 at 11:40 ET. The post-European close rebound and the Friday Afternoon Rally expectations propelled ESZs to 6887.25 at 11:58 ET. ESZs retreated to 6866.50 (-0.25) at 12:36 ET. The afternoon rally was an A-B-C to 6890.50 at 13:34 ET. ESZs then steadily fell to 6867.00 at 15:51 ET. The late and illegal manipulation pushed ESXs to 6880.75 at 15:59 ET.
The Man (Michael Ho) Who Got Eric Trump into American Bitcoin Before 70% Rout – BBG His rise from a precocious Vancouver car dealer to the head of a Nasdaq-listed company underscores how access to Trumpworld became a fast route to riches during the 2025 crypto boom — and how quickly the music is stopping as the industry grapples with another downturn… Ho’s breakout came in late 2024, when he and Genoot were introduced to the Trump family through Palm Beach, Florida, contacts…
Big Tech Giants (Meta, ORCL, AMZN, Google) Add Nearly $200B in Debt for AI Push in 2025 The $200 billion already includes off-balance-sheet financing – the true obligations tied to AI growth reach further than standard debt numbers show. The hyperscalers draw on every funding route to match soaring infrastructure bills… https://thetradable.com/ai/big-tech-giants-add-nearly-200b-in-debt-for-ai-push-in-2025–ms
WSJ: Netflix to Buy Warner Bros. for $72 Billion – The deal to buy the entertainment company’s studios and streaming business would reshape the industry, but White House officials expressed concern.
Anti-Free-Speech War Escalates as EU Unleashes DSA (Digital Services Act) on Musk’s X It’s punishment for not bending the knee to the EU’s iron-fisted control over online content… Further, Musk brings receipts showing the European Union sent him a formal letter demanding that he censor Donald Trump during the 2024 US presidential election… Under the DSA, the EU can impose fines of up to 6% of an online platform’s annual global revenue for failing to address illegal content, disinformation, or transparency requirements. It is still investigating X as well as several other major US tech firms, including Apple, Google, and Meta, under the DSA and the Digital Markets Act.https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/anti-free-speech-war-escalates-eu-unleashes-dsa-musks-x
Elon Musk, Trump admin go scorched earth on EU after X hit with $140M fine “The EU should be abolished and sovereignty returned to individual countries, so that governments can better represent their people,” Musk wrote on X on Saturday, before adding, “AbolishTheEU.”… Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said, “America is done looking the other way while foreign governments seek to censor our people and bully our companies.”… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/elon-musk-trump-admin-go-scorched-earth-on-eu-after-x-hit-with-140m-fine/ar-AA1RQDki
@elonmusk: The European Commission offered 𝕏 an illegal secret deal: if we quietly censored speech without telling anyone, they would not fine us… other platforms accepted the deal. 𝕏 did not. 7/12/24
@JimFergusonUK: One of America’s leading constitutional law professors (Turley)… was just in Berlin, and… said only TWO people at the World Forum were defending free speech… the rest of the room was demanding coordinated censorship—not just across Europe, but against Americans… European regulators want U.S. speech controlled by EU law. Platforms are being threatened with ruinous fines. International bodies now expect enforcement against U.S. citizens… He also stated that Hillary Clinton personally intensified this push—calling on the EU to weaponise the Digital Services Act when Elon Musk acquired Twitter… As he put it: “Free speech isn’t falling—it’s being dismantled.” https://x.com/JimFergusonUK/status/1996919026597941692 (Populist, anti-immigration parties soaring in the EU, haughty elites are petrified and desperate!)
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rose 114.05, the DJTA gained 117.40; Nasdaq closed +72.99.
Negative aspects of previous session USZs declined as much as 24/32 despite soft US economic data. Bitcoin got clobbered; the NY Fang+ Index rallied only 14.90 points
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How high will bond and note yields rise?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6874.82 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6895.78; 6858.29
Apple Rocked by Executive Departures, With Chip Chief at Risk of Leaving Next – BBG Johny Srouji, Apple’s highly respected chip chief, has discussed leaving the company. Apple… is suddenly undergoing its biggest personnel shake-up in decades, with senior executives and key engineers both hitting the exits. In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down…. its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well…
WSJ: Trump’s Top Advisers Wage Campaign to Shift His Focus to High Prices During closed-door meetings in recent weeks, the president’s aides have pressed him to calibrate his message on affordability… aides presented Trump with surveys from one of the president’s own pollsters detailing voters’ concerns about the cost of living. His team has begun showing him social-media posts that illustrate how Americans view the economy. Top aides have taken turns talking to their boss about his economic messaging—and the need to emphasize what voters are feeling. Almost every senior White House official is involved in the effort…
@bravosresearch: Commodity prices are up by 100% since 2020. But personal income has risen by only 25%. This Cost of Living gap is unsustainable… A thread… 4/ On one hand, official data suggests inflation has cooled back down to reasonable levels. On the other, the prices of essential raw materials still remain above the pre-2020 levels: – Milk went from $3 to $4; Eggs jumped from $1.50 to $4; New cars rose from $37,000 to $49,000; Avg. home price surged from $320,000 to $420,000… 6/ Back in 1971, a similar pattern appeared: Inflation initially cooled —> stopped at around 3% —> surged into one of the highest inflation waves on record… https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1996930577451106553
The US 10-year note yield is breaking out to the upside. This is a HUGE negative development!
@bennyjohnson: Sen. Markwayne Mullin Says Venezuela, China, and Russia May Hold the Master Key That Accesses All Voting Machines and Our Entire Election System, Investigation is Underway… “Whoever designed the system can enter into those machines with the master key. Venezuela, China, and Russia are trying to sow doubt into our election system. They are planning on doing so. This is being looked at very heavily.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1997013171475743074
@Kalshi: Trump says soccer should be called “football” (At FIFA World Cup presser to hype its Peace Prize and the World Cup in US this; yet another boneheaded pandering error!)
Today – This is Fed Week. Most of the known universe expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bps. The Fed Week Effect is a historical rally that occurs into the release of the FOMC Communique. Add in the usual Monday Rally and you have the inducements for traders to get jiggy for stocks, particularly Fangs.
ESZs are +4.25; NQZs are +26.75; Dec AU is -7.90; and USZs are +2/32 at 20:10 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6744; 100-day MA: 6599; 150-day MA: 6400; 200-day MA: 6195 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,901; 100-day MA: 46,005; 150-day MA: 44,942; 200-day MA: 44,029 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
@paulsperry_ : New emails reveal an FBI criminal probe of Hillary+Marc Elias for filing false FEC reports to hide the Steele dossier was killed in ’19 by Dem prosecutor Pilger who worked with Obama IRS to target Tea Party groups and Dem prosecutor Cooney who became Jack Smith’s deputy
@bennyjohnson: The January 6th pipe bomber terrorist was…a young black guy; radical anti-Trump activist; sued Trump & ICE & DHS; extreme racial justice advocate; works at his family bail bonds company that frees criminal aliens from ICE custody Yeah, this explains exactly why the FBI & DOJ could not “find” this guy for 4 years. The Biden FBI had mountains of evidence against Brian Cole. Receipts, cell data, license plate, photos and videos of the crime. They knew exactly who did it! But Brian’s profile destroys their entire ‘MAGA white supremacist insurrection bomber’ narrative in one blow. The FBI didn’t “fail” to catch him. Leftists protected their own. This is the biggest FBI cover-up scandal in history. What a nightmare…
Photos emerge of Somali illegal migrant fraudster with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Rep. Ilhan Omarhttps://t.co/7if55DssPQ
Harvard Law prof who fired pellet gun near synagogue, said he was ‘hunting rats’ agrees to leave US: DHS – agreed to return to Brazil voluntarily to avoid deportation… https://trib.al/tDSQ98y
Biden suffers brutal gaffe while trying to pronounce ‘America’ at LGBTQ conference in DC The noticeably frail 83-year-old Democrat disastrously bungled the name of the country he’s served for more than five decades during an impassioned moment in his keynote speech… https://t.co/H6laWpsusn
@BarronTNews_: Ron DeSantis just threw a grenade at GOP leadership and he is right Congress should be voting on MAGA priorities every single day and forcing Democrats to expose themselves on the record. Stop hiding. Put every popular issue on the floor and make them vote against it. He says Congress has done nothing since August. Nothing. If he were there, he would drop a new bill every day and force Democrats to show America exactly what they stand against. This is how Florida flipped into a landslide. Clear contrast. Parents rights. Illegal immigration. Tax cuts. Every fight laid out in the open. And he is right about Democrats helped create the inflation crisis then pretend they had no part in it. Time for the GOP to wake up and go on offense every day. https://x.com/BarronTNews_/status/1996951053938340042
@ValerieAnne1970: RFK Jr: “That’s how it (Hep-B shot) got on the schedule.” Shocking: Hep-B vax was for adults, but they wouldn’t buy it—Merck’s profits plummeted. Solution? CDC slaps it on newborn schedules to “force” sales. Not health. Pure greed. https://t.co/6bOsn7eofQ
@redpilldispensr: In 1968, Democrat Robert F. Kennedy exposed his own party’s plan to destroy the black community and ruin cities by promoting welfare dependence. He was assassinated shortly thereafter. RFK: “If we don’t want to destroy financially every city in the United States, we’re going to have to get people off welfare. Welfare is not the answer. It destroys the individual, and it destroys the family…”https://x.com/redpilldispensr/status/1996905608549642621
@DawnsMission: President Trump has ordered a full review of the childhood vaccine schedule after RFK Jr.’s new ACIP panel just voted to END the universal Hep B shot for newborns a vaccine most babies have virtually zero risk of needing on day one… The AAP and Big Pharma mouthpieces are melting down, screaming “public health crisis.”
Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester – NYT Over the past four years, a New York Times investigation found, the Ukrainian government systematically sabotaged that oversight, allowing graft to flourish. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around… https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-corruption-zelensky.html?unlocked_article_code=1.608.f14S.BNl2lc1nlcxe&s=02
For correctness I think that they must rename the Minnesota Vicking:
How about Minnesota -Somali Pirates? Or Minnesota-Somali Robbers!!
Full Metal Retard: Walz Rolls Out Taxpayer-Funded Paid Leave For Illegals
Friday, Dec 05, 2025 – 03:40 PM
Less than one week after the NY Times (of all rags) torched Minnesota governor Tim Walz over a massive and sprawling fraud scandalinvolving Somalians that federal prosecutors say siphoned over $1 billion from the state’s social safety net programs, Walz is opening yet another avenue for fraud – giving taxpayer-funded leave illegal immigrants.
Under the Minnesota Paid Family and Medical Leave Program which Walz signed into law ahead of its Jan. 1 start date, “undocumented workers” will receive benefits, according to the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce’s FAQ page.
The program provides payments to Minnesota residents who need time away from work for “serious health” reasons, or to take care of a family member – be it an infant or an ill relative, the Washington Examiner reports. What’s more, if an individual qualifies for both medical and family leave, they can “double dip” – getting taxpayer funds for a total of 20 weeks or 5.5 months, each year. These receiving benefits can also “top off” paid leave by using paid time off (PTO), sick days, and vacation hours in addition to their leave of absence.
Program beneficiaries will receive between 55% and 90% of their regular wages while on paid leave – up to a maximum amount of $5,692 per month.
“Are people going to abuse the program?” Walz replied when questioned on Tuesday at an event about potential fraud. “How disrespectful to people to assume that ailing Minnesotans are scamming. That’s what I hear from [critics] all the time. I trust Minnesotans.”
“I believe they know you’re not gonna get rich, and it’s not your full salary. You’re not gonna scam and take time off,” Walz continued.
Meanwhile, Walz continues to downplay growing concerns after a $1 billion fraud was uncovered by City Journal, in which Somali immigrants were stealing welfare funds and funneling the money home to Somalia.
The fraud involved a series of schemes that federal authorities say took root over the past five years, many centered within Minnesota’s Somali diaspora, where individuals established companies that billed state agencies for services that were never performed. Prosecutors say 59 people have been convicted across various cases so far, in three separate plots.
Minnesota’s fraud scandal stood out even in the context of rampant theft during the pandemic, when Americans stole tens of billions through unemployment benefits, business loans and other forms of aid, according to federal auditors. – NYT
Federal prosecutors have emphasized the seriousness of the cases being prosecuted by career federal attorney Joseph H. Thompson – who warned that the scale of fraud threatens public confidence. “No one will support these programs if they continue to be riddled with fraud,” Mr. Thompson said. “We’re losing our way of life in Minnesota in a very real way.”
Also meanwhile, Minnesota is awarding public outreach grants to community groups that are focused on “equity” and helping “priority populations” including minorities, LGBT people, immigrants, and people who can’t speak English.
Funding for the grants comes from a portion of the annual projected PFML payments. For fiscal 2026, grants will be awarded from an available fund of $1.9 million, increasing to $3.7 million the following year.
‘The next big fraud scandal in Minnesota’
Some policy experts are raising fraud-related concerns about bad actors abusing the paid leave program, especially exploiting the minimal eligibility criteria that allow illegal immigrants to benefit from the coverage plan.
“Why are Minnesota taxpayers, which I’m one, funding people who, legally speaking, should not be in America or in Minnesota?” questioned Bill Glahn, a policy fellow at the Minnesota-based Center of the American Experiment.
Proponents of PFML, however, believe that illegal migrants should reap the rewards if they pay into the program via the payroll tax, which is split between employers and employees, whose half is deducted from their wages. –Washington Examiner
Evidence continues to mount that Walz is, as President Trump claims, a complete retard.
end
Freshly Pardoned Cuellar Says Biden DOJ Tried To Entrap Him; Trump Lashes Out Over ‘Lack Of Loyalty’
Sunday, Dec 07, 2025 – 06:05 PM
As many of you know, President Trump pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) after he fell under investigation for alleged bribery after criticizing Biden’s open border policies. As Trump put it on Truth Social, “For years, the Biden Administration weaponized the Justice System against their Political Opponents, and anyone who disagreed with them,” writing that Cueller had “bravely spoke out against Open Borders, and the Biden Border ‘Catastrophe.’”
Cuellar accused the Biden Department of Justice of trying to bribe and entrap him in a failed sting operation, telling Fox News‘ Maria Bartiromo that DOJ prosecutors went so far as to set up an elaborate sting operation specifically designed to entrap him. He also pointed out that prosecutors found no evidence of any quid pro quo, the very allegation that formed the basis of their case against him. Despite the lack of evidence, they apparently decided to create some.
“Again, no quid pro quo from any of the evidence, from any of the individuals,” Cuellar explained. “And therefore, they even did, attempted a sting operation where they were trying to entrap me, and that failed.
Cuellar and his wife were charged last year with bribery, with the Biden DOJ alleging they accepted roughly $600,000 from Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank in exchange for political favors. Cuellar’s allegations reveal a troubling pattern of prosecutorial misconduct at the highest levels of the Justice Department – a pattern all too familiar when Democrats weaponize government power against their opponents. Democrats used the Obama administration’s Russian collusion hoax to hobble the first Trump administration. Democrats later impeached Trump twice. Then, the Biden Justice Department and Democratic prosecutors across the country pursued dozens of politically charged indictments against Trump in an attempt to prevent his return to the White House.
Bartiromo was clearly shocked by the allegations.
“Wow, entrapment, bribery. Uh, Congressman, tell me specifically, who tried to bribe you? You mean Biden’s DOJ tried to bribe you?”
“Yes, that, they did,” he confirmed when asked if Biden’s DOJ tried to bribe him. “You know, we got all the, the testimony, the 302s, the sting operation. They set up a false company, a false account. They took out money. We saw all this. They took out the money, and they said this money was to bribe me.”
The scheme allegedly fell apart when they approached his Washington, DC staff with the dirty money. “They tried to use this money. They talked to my DC staff. My DC staff told them no, there was nothing there,” Cuellar recalled. Unable to complete their corrupt scheme, the operatives had no choice but to return the money. “So they actually returned the money back to the account because they couldn’t bribe me.”
Cuellar made it clear this was no rogue operation by overzealous local prosecutors. The entire case was orchestrated from Washington, DC. “So the Biden administration, they tried to entrap me and tried to bribe me, and that failed,” he said. “And this is very significant because one more thing, everything came in from the DOJ in DC. Everything came from the office there. The local office, that is the one in Houston, never got enough.”
“And from my sources, they did not get involved because they felt there was not a case, and they said, ‘We’re not gonna get involved.’ The Houston office said, ‘We’re not gonna get involved.’ It’s all the DOJ people in Washington, DC,” he explained. When local prosecutors who know the territory refuse to touch a case, that should raise red flags about its legitimacy.
Cuellar says he’s already reached out to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan to request a formal investigation. If Cuellar’s allegations are true—and he claims to have the receipts in the form of FBI 302 reports and other documentation, it would be an egregious example of prosecutorial misconduct. Biden’s DOJ didn’t just bring questionable charges against a sitting congressman who dared to speak out against his immigration policies, but also tried to manufacture evidence through bribery and entrapment when they couldn’t find any real wrongdoing.
“Only a short time after signing the Pardon, Congressman Henry Cuellar announced that he will be ‘running’ for Congress again, in the Great State of Texas (a State where I received the highest number of votes ever recorded!), as a Democrat, continuing to work with the same Radical Left Scum that just weeks before wanted him and his wife to spend the rest of their lives in Prison – And probably still do!”
Trump concluded, “Such a lack of LOYALTY, something that Texas Voters, and Henry’s daughters, will not like. Oh’ well, next time, no more Mr. Nice guy!”
end
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG
Europe Is the Problem with Peace Deal in Ukraine – Martin Armstrong
About two months ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was called in by the Trump White House to come up with a peace plan that Vladimir Putin and Russia would agree to. Armstrong has confirmed this request was “sanctioned” by President Trump. This means the President is serious about stopping the Ukraine war. Armstrong says, “I think I changed the narrative with this plan.” Armstrong came up with a nearly 200-page paper called “Peace Proposal to Prevent World War III.” Now, we are finding out that the Russians want to make a peace deal, but the Europeans do NOT want a deal. Nothing illustrates this more than the headline that came out yesterday that said, “We Must Protect Volodymyr’: Leaked Call Shows European Leaders Conspiring Against Trump Peace Plan.” Armstrong has also long said, “Europe is Falling & Needs War with Russia.” It all comes down to default and money. Armstrong explains, “They have a choice. They go into a sovereign default, and what is going to happen is the people are going to have pitchforks, and they will be storming the parliaments. . .. Europe is going into a depression–the US will go into a recession.”
Armstrong contends this will be a “grand finale of default in Europe.” Armstrong says, “Oh yeah, it will be the banks and pension funds. The pension funds on average must have 70% government debt. So, this is what I warned about in Washington. I think they have taken what I have said to heart. I have explained Europe is the problem.”
So, it looks like war with Russia, but maybe not with the US. Armstrong says, “My suggestion was to threaten the EU with ‘you accept this peace deal, or we exit NATO.’ I warned them that NATO will create a false flag. You just had an Italian admiral come out in the EU and say we are justified for a hybrid attack to do a ‘preemptive strike’ against Russia—preemptive! We need to get the hell out of NATO!”
It looks like the US leaving NATO over a failed Ukraine peace deal is a real possibility. Armstrong says, “I was told flat out that we would not be at war with Russia. The risk is with China. . .. Do you know who has the biggest reserves of wheat in the world? China. They have been buying food for exactly what I have been forecasting. . .. They are preparing for World War III.”
In closing, Armstrong is fresh off his World Economic Conference (WEC) that had hundreds of thousands of live streamers. The big themes for 2026 are: sovereign debt default (but not in the US), war and civil unrest. Armstrong also talks about gold and silver and how the bull market in metal is not going to be over anytime soon.
There is much more in the 73-minute interview.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Starlink at Starlink123.com and Sat Phones at Sat123.com and BeReady123.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a real human. Same goes for EscapeZone.com where you can get Faraday Bags big and small. You can also talk to a real human at EscapeZone.com by calling 702-825-0005.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about the Ukraine peace deal that Europe is sabotaging and the US exit from NATO for 12.6.25.
If you need any information on the products the Satellite Phone Store sells such as Starlink, battery backup, sat phones and a wide variety of signal stopping Faraday Bags, you can order and talk-to-human at 855-980-5830.
Scott Adams admits anti-vaxxers were right: ‘They Are the Winners’ in health outcomes
harveyorganblog.com 
