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XGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,187.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/08/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 12/10/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 1
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 29
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 11
104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 3
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 101
363 C WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 68
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 39
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 400 134
685 C RJ OBRIEN 16
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 7 2
709 C BARCLAYS 2
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1
880 H CITIGROUP 4
905 C ADM 25
TOTAL: 424 424
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/08/2025 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/08/2025
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:40:24
MONTH TO DATE: 27,575
MONTH TO DATE: 27,151
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 134/424
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 424 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 42,400 OZ or 1.3188 TONNES
total notices so far: 27,575 contracts for 2,757,500 OR 85.769 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 189 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.945 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 10,448 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 52.240 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.870 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 56.400 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 15.860 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 0.870 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP // STANDING ADVANCES TO 56.400 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.5381 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 4.6051 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.034 TONNES/
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 88.034 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 48.27 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 565 CONTRACTS OI TO 150,011 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 160 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 160 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 965 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 160 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 288 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0.48 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.44 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.48
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS TUESDAY MORNING:
ASIA RESULTS; TUESDAY DEC 9
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.56 POINTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 336.13 PTS OR 1.29%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 69.56 PTS OR 0.14% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.45%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0543
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0663/ Oil DOWN TO 58.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0643 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 565 CONTRACTS TO 427,425 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $23.45 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2777). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY (WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED ON NOV 30). .. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE . JUDGING BY THE MASSIVE NOTICES FOR DELIVERY FILED MONDAY NIGHT AT 424 NOTICES FOR 42,400 OZ (1.3188 TONNES), THE EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ARE STANDING FOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GOLD FOR DECEMBER DELIVERIES. YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI HAS STILL A VERY LOW AT 427,607 AND THESE GUYS ARE VERY STICKY AND ITS OI IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FRIDAY SO AGAIN THEY PROVIDE A LITTLE FODDER FOR OUR CROOKS TO RAID!!
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3342 CONTRACTS (OR 10.395 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 6 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 11 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 11 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 54 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT TO CREATE A SHORTFALL OF 54 TONNES. THE NOVEMBER BIS REPORT SHOWED THAT THE FRBNY LOWERED ITS SHORTFALL BY 15 TONNES AND THUS 39 TONNES REMAIN TO BE SOMEHOW COVERED.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3342 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3,761 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK FINISHING OFF WITH A MASSIVE HUGE RAID ON GOLD (AND SILVER) DESPERATELY TRYING TO STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. THIS ALWAYS ENDS IN FAILURE AS WE SAW GOLD//SILVER RISE HUGELY ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WENT UP CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY DEC 5. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THUS A FORTHCOMING RAID DURING THIS WEEK.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.5381 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 4.6051 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.034 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 39 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2777 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2777 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /FEB 2777 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2777 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 39 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED 3,781 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING SMALL GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..ENOUGH FODDER FOR A RAID//
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.5381 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 4.6051 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.034 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $23.45/ /)
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY WITH THE PRICE LOSS// COMEX TRADING//.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN STOIC//THEY REFUSED TO BE RINSED AS EXPLAINED BY THE OI ON COMEX RISING. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
MONDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/ TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 173 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 17,300 OZ OR 0.5381 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 4.6051 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.034 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $23.40
WE HAD A SMALL 44 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
DEC 9
DEC CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) out of Asahi 61,0539.579 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 3972.358 oz iii) Out of Malca: 52,759.791 oz (1691 kilobars) total withdrawal 117,791.778 oz (3.66 tonnes) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER i) ONE ENTRIES i) into Loomis: 3972.358 oz total deposit; 3972.358 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 924 notice(s) 92,400 OZ 1.3188 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 728 contracts 72800 OZ 2.264 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 27,575 notices 2,757,500 0z 85.769 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
i) entry
i) ONE ENTRIES
i) into Loomis: 3972.358 oz
total deposit; 3972.358 oz
customer withdrawals:
3 entries
i) Out of Asahi; 61,053.579 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 397.358 oiz
iii0 Out of Malca 52,759.791 oz (1691 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 117,791.728 oz
3.66 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 2 customer to dealer
a) HSBC 40,027.775 oz
b) Brinks 1006.000 oz
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 1152 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 325 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 498 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 201 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 20,100 OZ OR 0.6252 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TO OUR PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS .THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES HUGELY TO 88.034 TONNES
JANUARY GAINED 37 CONTRACTS UP TO 2718
FEB LOST 1142 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 319,451 CONTRACTS
We had 498 contracts filed for today representing 49,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 400 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 498 contract(s) of which 134 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 424 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,575 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 1152 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (424 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,830,300 OZ OR 88.034 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (27,575 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1152 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (424)x 100 oz) which equals 2,830,300 OR 88.034 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 88.034 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 88.034 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume MONDAY confirmed 168,463 contracts fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,010,707.549 oz 62.54 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,099,319.160 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 18,505,181.898or 575.58 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,594,022.262 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 16,494,474oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
513.074 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
DEC 9 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Delaware 999.700 oz ii) Out of Manfra: 320,250.876 oz total withdrawal 321,250.590 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Loomis: 3972.358 oz total deposit 3972.358 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 189 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.945 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 839 contracts (4.195 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 10,448 Contracts (52,240 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
please note: lack of any silver coming in or leaving the comex
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
zero entries
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
adjustments:
0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 136.914MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 455.823Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 1021 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 110 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 64 CONTRACTS FILED ON MONDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 174 CONTRACTS OR 0.870 MILLION OZ
JANUARY GAINED 29 CONTRACTS UP TO 3960 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 195 CONTRACTS UP TO 1304 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 189 or 0.945 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 67,853 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,443 X5,000 oz = 52.240 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (1021) AND the number of notices served upon today (189 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (10,448) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(1021) minus number of notices served upon today (189)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 56.400 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 56,400 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 136.914. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 196.188/455.821million. 43.00%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $18.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.11 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.58 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1049.11 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP $2.41/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.179 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.828 MILLION OZ //
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.497 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.007 MILLION OZ //
DEC 5/WITH SILVER UP 0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.448 MILLION OZ //
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 510.828 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
Alasdair Macleod…
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
252: P Radomski (a silver guy)
5. COMMODITY REPORT/PHYSICAL //SILVER
ASIA RESULTS; MONDAY DEC 9
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.56 POINTS OR 0.37%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 336.13 PTS OR 1.29%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 69.56 PTS OR 0.14% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.45%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0543
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0663/ Oil DOWN TO 58.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 62.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0643 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0663:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0643
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0663
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 325.58 PTS OR 1.25%
2. Nikkei closed UP 69.56 PTS OR 0.14%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.95 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1654 UP 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.965 // DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.11…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.400 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.8459/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.553 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.323
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.485
3j Gold at $4204.70 Silver at: 58.68 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 27/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.81
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.10 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.965% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.381 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8056 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9387 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.155 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.787 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.579 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.57 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5610 DOWN 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.184 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.424 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.020 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat With Fed/Oracle Event Bonanza On Deck
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 08:34 AM
US futures are unchanged, with traders looking forward to two market-moving events on Wednesday: the Fed meeting (where 22bps of easing is priced in) and Oracle results. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts are little changed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower except for a 0.5% gain in NVDA: TSLA -0.9%, META -0.5%, GOOGL -0.3%. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were largely muted. Headlines on NVDA’s likely H200 shipment approval drove gains in stocks both during Monday trading session and pre-market today. In addition, there was an article on China is set to limit access to NVDA’s H200 chips this morning. Bond yields are fractionally lower, while the USD reverses earlier losses and is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and previous metals are higher, while base metals and Ags are lower. Key focus today are Small Business Optimism and JOLTS.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia up 0.1%, paring earlier gains, after the FT reported that China’s regulators are discussing ways to limit permits for access to its H200 semiconductors (Amazon +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Tesla -0.9%).
- Almonty Industries (ALM) is down 14% to $6.79 after the company priced 18 million shares at $6.25 each for $112.5 million in gross proceeds.
- Ares Management (ARES) rises 8.1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Kellanova in the S&P 500, effective Dec. 11.
- Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) falls 4.6% after the luxury builder beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, while providing full-year guidance for 2026 that fell below expectations.
- Viking Holdings (VIK) rises 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the cruise operator to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, peer Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) falls 2.5% as the bank downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
- US stocks may be more volatile after tomorrow’s Fed meeting than after other recent decisions because of diverging views among Fed officials, with Bloomberg options data showing an implied move of 0.7% in either direction. Globally, central banks are starting to tilt more hawkish, upending yields. Meanwhile, while buyside investors have said they’re feeling risk-on into 2026, a poll of Goldman Sachs clients shows their bullish views about AI and US stocks are moderating.
- Elsewhere, a recent jump in Treasury yields has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of monetary easing beyond Wednesday’s meeting. Money markets now see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25bps hawkish cut tomorrow, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.
- “Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”
- Stoxx 600 little changed, with outperformance for German and Italian stocks, offset by weakness in France. The defense sector is rallying as Germany prepares to authorize a record amount of orders for military gear and services. Other sectors are muted amid concerns about the path of monetary policy at global central banks. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Orsted shares jump as much as 4.4% to their highest level in four months after a US federal judge ruled President Donald Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects is illegal.
- Rusta gains as much as 13%, the most since June, after the Swedish discount retailer reported second-quarter earnings that DNB Carnegie described as “much stronger than expected,” with sales growth accelerating.
- Man Group shares gain as much as 5.2%, touching their highest level since February, after JPMorgan says there are “reasons to be cheerful” about the European diversified financials sector heading into 2026, with a brighter economic outlook offering a supportive backdrop for equity markets.
- Thungela shares rally as much as 6.7% after the coal miner said in a statement that it expects its export saleable production from its South African operations for 2025 to exceed its guidance range.
- BAT shares decline as much as 5.4% after the company said it expects revenue growth in 2026 at the lower end of its mid-term guidance.
- Thyssenkrupp shares slide as much as 13%, paring this year’s huge gains, after the German industrial firm’s 2026 guidance missed estimates. Morgan Stanley said the weak outlook outweighed a full-year results beat.
- Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 11%, the most intraday in a month, after CMA CGM offered about €325m senior unsecured bonds due 2028 exchangeable for shares of the airline operator.
- EssilorLuxottica shares fall as much as 5%, the most since May, on competition concerns after Alphabet’s Google said it’s working to create two different categories of artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses.
- OCI shares slump as much as 18%, reaching a record low, after the Dutch chemical maker announced a merger with Orascom Construction, an engineering and construction contractor based in Abu Dhabi.
- Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 8.9% after Morpheus Research published a report on the German company and said it’s short the stock.
- Earlier in the session, Hang Seng Tech Index drops more than 1.5% and mainland China indexes are better offered. The ChiNext stands out with a modest gain. Kospi, Taiex and ASX 200 indexes are nursing small losses, while Japanese stocks are broadly unchanged.
- In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index marginally weaker. Aussie dollar among the strongest major currencies after the RBA said it was done with rate cuts in this cycle, which sent Aussie bond yields soaring.
- In rates, bonds are recovering slightly from the selloff in the prior session in Europe, with outperformance in longer maturities. Ten-year bund yields down two basis points. Treasuries mixed, with yields lower at the long end, unchanged at the short. 10-year TSY yields, little changed around 4.165%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 0.5bp. Treasury curve spreads are mostly within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, with 5s30s near 105bp holding Monday’s sharp flattening move. Rangebound price action precedes 10-year note auction at 1pm New York time, following October JOLTS job openings data during US morning. Treasury coupon auctions cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening, a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC communications. Cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening. WI 10-year yield near 4.165% is ~9bp cheaper than the November sale, which tailed by 0.6bp
- In commodities, gold prices higher, up by around $12 to $4,202/oz. Oil prices fluctuating, with Brent futures trading up to around $62.60/barrel.
- Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes September Leading index and October JOLTS job openings (10am)
- Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini little changed
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX +0.4%
- CAC 40 -0.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
- VIX +0.1 points at 16.77
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.31
- euro little changed at $1.1648
- WTI crude +0.4% at $59.1/barrel
- Top Overnight News
- Trump Says U.S. Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut: BBG
- China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump export approval: FT
- China’s top leaders are signaling they are on alert for a potential flareup of tensions in global commerce as they draw up economic plans for next year, after amassing a record trade surplus despite the tariff war with the US: BBG
- President Donald Trump signaled he could impose fresh tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, the latest sign that protracted negotiations with two US trading partners could drag on: BBG
- US farmers said the Trump administration’s $12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
- Oil market faces ‘super glut’ as supply surge hits prices, Trafigura warns: FT
- China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs: WSJ
- Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away: BBG
- German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion ($61 billion) next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army: BBG
- South Korea’s National Pension Service has recently started selling dollars to bolster the won, according to a person familiar with the matter, reviving earlier efforts to support the currency: BBG
- Investors increase bets on ECB rate rise in threat to dollar: FT
- Chinese stocks slumped in Hong Kong as investors reacted to a lack of stimulus signals from a meeting of top Communist Party leaders and turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision: BBG
- Lithuania declares state of emergency over smuggler balloons from Belarus: FT
- Trump Rails Against Europe, Threatens Expanded Anti-Drug Strikes: BBG
- Boaz Weinstein’s $2bn flagship hedge fund sinks amid buoyant markets: FT
- Warner Bros. Rival Bids Put Spotlight on Flagging Cable Networks: BBG
- Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
- China is set to limit access of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, via FT citing sources; no decision has been made on the matter
- US President Trump posted that ”Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years.” Trump added that the “U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”
- US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
- Chinese Premier Li said at the ‘1 + 10’ dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.
- A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
- APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China. ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday’s Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump’s announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.
- Top Asian News
- RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
- RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
- China’s Premier said “we are confident in completing economic goals this year”, according to Xinhua.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he believes that the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond that. “Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we have been adjusting the degree of easing slowly”. As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, this has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating negative effects on employment and production in Japan. Strong enough momentum in domestic price and wage dynamics to prevent negative shocks from having a large impact on inflation. At the moment, not seeing a very high risk of inflation, especially underlying inflation accelerating in the wake of fiscal stimulus. Watching the possibility of food inflation and JPY weakness altering inflation expectations. It is the government’s job to deliver on medium to long-term fiscal sustainability. Keep an eye on bank exposure to non-bank financial institutions abroad. Exchange rates should follow fundamentals. How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is a “very important question for us.”
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he won’t comment on specifics on interest rates but noted that long-term interest rates are rising rather rapidly recently, adding that it will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves.
- European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with mild gains, then clambered higher soon after the cash open – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with indices now broadly in the red. European sectors opened without bias and continue to fare this way. Financials, Insurance and Banks lead the charge, helped by the continued constructive yield environment, while Basic Resources underperforms as the metals rally loses steam.
- Top European News
- European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
- Germany is to approve EUR 52bln in military orders, via Bloomberg.
- NBP’s Duda said it is necessary to wait before cutting rates to assess the impact of reductions already made on the economy.
- FX
- DXY resides within a narrow 98.97-99.14 range with the index testing 99.00 to the downside shortly after the European cash equity open, with newsflow on the quieter side as trades look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC with eyes on the dot plots. The index remains well within yesterday’s 98.79-99.22 parameter. Trade headlines have been more conciliatory between the US and China, after US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. On the docket ahead, the US data slate features weekly ADP jobs data, as well as JOLTs data for September (7.199mln expected vs a prior 7.227mln; in August, the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the quits rate eased by 0.1ppts to 1.9%).
- AUD is the outperformer this morning after the RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. AUD/USD tested levels near 0.6650 from a 0.6610 base.
- JPY lags following yesterday’s weakness on the 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which did later see all advisories eventually lifted. USD/JPY saw a dip lower on hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda after he noted, “How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is “very important question for us.” USD/JPY resides in a 155.74-156.43 range after tipping yesterday’s 155.98 peak, with the next upside level the 28th Nov peak at 156.58.
- GBP and EUR trade with modest gains in quiet newsflow, with GBP/USD on either side of 1.3350 and EUR/USD printing on either end of 1.1650. Strength in the GBP in the early part of this morning’s session lacked a clear catalyst.
- Fixed Income
- USTs were initially slightly this morning, but then caught a slight bid. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-05+ to 112-12+ range. The upside seen in the morning came alongside FX-related commentary by BoJ Governor Ueda, which sparked some demand in the Yen, which led to a broader pick-up across havens (bonds/gold). On the trade front, President Trump said he would allow NVIDIA H200 chip shipments to China, which has seemingly lifted sentiment a touch in Europe/US equity futures. Elsewhere, Trump threatened Mexico with an extra 5% tariff amidst a water dispute. Ahead, markets await the Weekly US ADP Prelim Average, JOLTS data and a 10-year auction.
- Bunds started the European session with modest strength, attempting to scale back some of its recent losses; currently trading within a 127.26 to 127.66 range; the low for the day is a couple of ticks below Monday’s trough. Though soon after the cash open, Bunds moved a touch lower amidst a pick-up in European equities – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with Bunds now back in the green by roughly 15 ticks. Earlier, German Exports rose 0.1% (exp. -0.5%), whilst Imports disappointed – overall, ING suggests the data shows that Germany is unlikely to be pulled out of stagnation by its exports. Most recently, in line with peers, the benchmark has picked up to trade near highs.
- OATs are higher, but underperforming vs European peers, as traders count down their clocks to a key National Assembly Vote on the 2026 social security budget; if passed, PM Lecornu would have successfully resolved issues which have led to failure for the prior two PMs. In brief, recent pension/healthcare spending concessions have earned Lecornu support from the Socialists, who are expected to vote in favour of the bill, whilst support from the right has waned – Politico writes that “it’s not looking great”. Overall, the outcome could heighten political turbulence and uncertainty over France’s plans to address gaps in its public finances.
- Gilts trade higher alongside peers; currently at the upper end of a 90.63 to 91.22 range. Focus ahead will be on the BoE TSC hearing, with the likes of Ramsden (Dove), Lombardelli (Neutral), Mann (Hawk) and Dhingra (Dove) all set to appear.
- Commodities
- WTI and Brent have seemed to have stabilised following Monday’s risk-off selloff. Benchmarks extended below Monday’s trough of USD 58.62/bbl and USD 62.34/bbl, respectively, to a low of USD 58.59/bbl and USD 62.24/bbl as the APAC session came to an end. Thus far, benchmarks trade muted in a c. USD 0.40/bbl range with the EIA to release its STEO later today.
- Spot XAU failed to extend beyond the key support level at USD 4176/oz, troughing at USD 4170/oz, before reversing higher as the dollar continued to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. XAU gradually rose c. USD 35/oz higher to a session high of USD 4209/oz as the European session gets underway, aided by hawkish comments by BoJ’s Ueda, which pressured USD/JPY and in turn, weakened DXY.
- 3M LME Copper continued to pull back from its ATH formed in Monday’s session, set at USD 11.75k/t, following a disappointing readout from the Politburo and a cautious risk tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal gradually fell from a session high of USD 11.66k/t to a trough of USD 11.43k/t throughout the APAC session. Currently, losses have been slightly pared back as the European session gets underway, with 3M LME Copper trading back above USD 11.5k/t
- Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average.
- Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russian drones attacked its gas infrastructure
- Geopolitics
- Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
- EU Commission President von der Leyen said as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
- Russia’s Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are “complete nonsense”.
- US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.3, prior 98.2
- 10:00 am: Sep Leading Index, est. -0.31%
- 10:00 am: Oct JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7117k
- DB’s Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap
- Morning from Zurich after a day in sunny Geneva yesterday as the 2026 World Outlook roadshow moves on to audiences that don’t quite rival the recent Oasis tour but are decent nonetheless. Tickets are undoubtedly cheaper. Bonds continue to cheapen up as well as the recent sell-off has showed no signs of letting up over the last 24 hours, with global yields moving higher as investors reacted to several headlines, including hawkish comments from multiple officials. So by the close, 10yr bund yields (+6.4bps) had posted their biggest daily jump since August to reach 2.86%, which is their highest level since March after the fiscal stimulus announcements. Meanwhile in the US, 10yr Treasury yields (+2.9bps) closed at 4.17%, their highest since September. Remember that’s building on the +12bps increase last week, which was already the biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day turmoil in April. This follows big recent rises in yields in places like Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand in recent weeks. For yesterday the yield rise meant that the S&P 500 (-0.35%) fell back after four consecutive gains.
- The initial catalyst for yesterday’s additional sell-off was a Bloomberg interview with the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel. That came out before the European open, with her suggesting that “I’m rather comfortable” with expectations that the next move would be a hike. Moreover, she made other hawkish comments, saying that “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside”, and that she believed that the equilibrium or neutral interest rate that neither restricts nor stimulates economic activity (r*) could rise because of AI and public investment. So collectively, that served as the initial trigger for the selloff, and euro overnight index swaps for December 2026 moved +8.0bps higher on the day.
- Unsurprisingly, this hawkish repricing led to a huge reaction among European government bond yields, particularly at the front end. For instance, yields on 2yr German (+6.4bps) and French (+5.8ps) debt moved up to their highest level since March, right after the German government had announced their plans to reform the constitutional debt brake to permit extra borrowing. And notably, the 30yr German yield (+3.1bps) moved up to 3.46%, its highest level since summer 2011 as the Euro crisis escalated. So there was a real sense yesterday that markets were pricing back in a pre-GFC normal of higher long-term rates, particularly given the background concerns over the current fiscal trajectory.
- Putting all the yield moves in perspective, over the last month 10yr Australian (+36bps), Japanese (+26bps) New Zealand (+39bps), Canadian (+25ps) and German (+19bps) lead the way. The likes of the UK (+7bps) and the US (+6bps) have actually held in better, even if they are up more from their lows, but yesterday saw US yields rise as we heard from Kevin Hassett, who’s now considered the strong favourite (77% on Polymarket) to become the next Fed Chair. He was asked yesterday how many rate cuts there should be in 2026, but he struck a cautious tone, saying “what you need to do is watch the data.” So given his previous calls for more rate cuts, that was interpreted in a more hawkish light.
- Those comments and the global backdrop meant investors meaningfully dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts next year. For instance, the amount of further cuts priced in by December 2026 came down -3.9bps on the day to 78bps. And in turn, that meant US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. So the 2yr yield (+1.5bps) moved up to 3.58%, while the 10yr yield (+2.9bps to 4.17%) and the 30yr yield (+1.0bps to 4.80%) both reached their highest levels since September. Remember that the two-day FOMC meeting begins today ahead of tomorrow’s decision, and the last dot plot in September only signalled one further cut in 2026 after the December cut expected tomorrow. So the dot plot already has a more hawkish profile than futures are pricing, and there was also a wide dispersion around that, with 8 out of the 19 officials above the median, so it would only take two more to push that higher. So there’s heightened uncertainty among investors going into that.
- All this proved a tougher backdrop for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.35%) falling back after a run of 4 consecutive gains. To be fair, the move kept the index less than 1% beneath its record high from late-October, but there was a clear loss of momentum as yields moved higher. The decline was broad-based, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day, led by communication services (-1.77%) and materials (-1.66%). The Magnificent 7 (-0.91%) posted its worst day in over two weeks even as semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by a +1.72% gain for Nvidia. Meanwhile in Europe, the equity losses were more muted, but the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) also fell back.
- Overnight Mr Trump has granted permission for Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge for the government. Nvidia gained an extra 2% in after-hours trading.
- Asian equity markets are predominantly weaker this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.10%) the largest underperformer in the region, with the CSI (-0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) also lower alongside the KOSPI (-0.41%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.45%). The Nikkei is flat alongside US equity futures.
- Overnight, the RBA has maintained its cash rate target at 3.60% in a unanimous decision, marking the third consecutive meeting in which rates have been held steady, following 75bps of cuts in 2025. The press conference was hawkish and emphasised that they are considering a hike and suggested February was under consideration. Following this, the Australian dollar is +0.33% higher against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year Australian government bonds have surged by +10.2bps to reach 4.14%. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +5.4bps, trading at 4.76% as we go to print. So the sell-off in G10 rates continues and Kiwi bond yields are up a similar amount this morning. However, 10-year JGBs are pausing for breath with 10yr yields down by -0.8bps overnight after closing +2.8bps higher yesterday, reaching another post-2007 high of 1.96%.
- Finally on Ukraine, there was no new progress on the peace talks, with President Zelenskiy saying there were still disagreements on territory, and that he wanted answers on security guarantees for Ukraine. After a meeting with UK’s Starmer, France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz in London, Zelenskiy added that Ukraine would share its revised plan with the US today. Oil prices did fall back yesterday, although that reflected the global sell-off rather than geopolitical developments, with Brent crude down -1.98% to $62.49/bbl.
- To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September and October, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, whilst the BoE’s Lombardelli, Ramsden, Mann and Dhingra will be appearing before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.
1b European opening report
China to limit access of NVDA’s H200 chips despite Trump approval; Markets await ADP and JOLTs – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 06:11 AM
- US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers. Though the FT reported that China is set to limit access of NVIDIA’s H200 chips; NVDA shares off best levels, last +0.5%.
- European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed with the NQ dipping into modest negative territory after the FT report on NVIDIA.
- DXY hovers around 99.00, Antipodeans rise post RBA, and JPY remains subdued, but did gain on Ueda-FX related commentary.
- Global paper was initially subdued but now firmer, OATs await French vote.
- Crude benchmarks trade rangebound ahead of the EIA STEO, Copper continues to pull back from ATHs.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including BoE’s Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ’s Breman, Supply from the US.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
- China is set to limit access of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, via FT citing sources; no decision has been made on the matter
- US President Trump posted that ”Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years.” Trump added that the “U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”
- US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
- Chinese Premier Li said at the ‘1 + 10’ dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with mild gains, then clambered higher soon after the cash open – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with indices now broadly in the red.
- European sectors opened without bias and continue to fare this way. Financials, Insurance and Banks lead the charge, helped by the continued constructive yield environment, while Basic Resources underperforms as the metals rally loses steam.
- Stateside, are mixed, with the NQ initially boosted after President Trump said he would now allow H200 chip shipments to China. Do note that contracts came under some mild pressure after the FT reported that China is set to limit access of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump. In reaction, the NQ flicked slightly into the red with NVIDIA shares coming off best levels in pre-market trade; last +0.6% vs posting earlier gains of 1.6%.
- European Commission opens investigation into possible anticompetitive conduct by Google (GOOGL) in the use of online content for AI purposes.
- Home Depot (HD) reaffirms FY25 guidance and 2026 outlook.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY resides within a narrow 98.97-99.14 range with the index testing 99.00 to the downside shortly after the European cash equity open, with newsflow on the quieter side as trades look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC with eyes on the dot plots. The index remains well within yesterday’s 98.79-99.22 parameter. Trade headlines have been more conciliatory between the US and China, after US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. On the docket ahead, the US data slate features weekly ADP jobs data, as well as JOLTs data for September (7.199mln expected vs a prior 7.227mln; in August, the vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the quits rate eased by 0.1ppts to 1.9%).
- AUD is the outperformer this morning after the RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. AUD/USD tested levels near 0.6650 from a 0.6610 base.
- JPY lags following yesterday’s weakness on the 7.6 magnitude earthquake, which did later see all advisories eventually lifted. USD/JPY saw a dip lower on hawkish commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda after he noted, “How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is “very important question for us.” USD/JPY resides in a 155.74-156.43 range after tipping yesterday’s 155.98 peak, with the next upside level the 28th Nov peak at 156.58.
- GBP and EUR trade with modest gains in quiet newsflow, with GBP/USD on either side of 1.3350 and EUR/USD printing on either end of 1.1650. Strength in the GBP in the early part of this morning’s session lacked a clear catalyst.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0773 vs exp. 7.0748 (Prev. 7.0764).
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs were initially slightly this morning, but then caught a slight bid. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-05+ to 112-12+ range. The upside seen in the morning came alongside FX-related commentary by BoJ Governor Ueda, which sparked some demand in the Yen, which led to a broader pick-up across havens (bonds/gold). On the trade front, President Trump said he would allow NVIDIA H200 chip shipments to China, which has seemingly lifted sentiment a touch in Europe/US equity futures. Elsewhere, Trump threatened Mexico with an extra 5% tariff amidst a water dispute. Ahead, markets await the Weekly US ADP Prelim Average, JOLTS data and a 10-year auction.
- Bunds started the European session with modest strength, attempting to scale back some of its recent losses; currently trading within a 127.26 to 127.66 range; the low for the day is a couple of ticks below Monday’s trough. Though soon after the cash open, Bunds moved a touch lower amidst a pick-up in European equities – a move which ultimately proved fleeting, with Bunds now back in the green by roughly 15 ticks. Earlier, German Exports rose 0.1% (exp. -0.5%), whilst Imports disappointed – overall, ING suggests the data shows that Germany is unlikely to be pulled out of stagnation by its exports. Most recently, in line with peers, the benchmark has picked up to trade near highs.
- OATs are higher, but underperforming vs European peers, as traders count down their clocks to a key National Assembly Vote on the 2026 social security budget; if passed, PM Lecornu would have successfully resolved issues which have led to failure for the prior two PMs. In brief, recent pension/healthcare spending concessions have earned Lecornu support from the Socialists, who are expected to vote in favour of the bill, whilst support from the right has waned – Politico writes that “it’s not looking great”. Overall, the outcome could heighten political turbulence and uncertainty over France’s plans to address gaps in its public finances.
- Gilts trade higher alongside peers; currently at the upper end of a 90.63 to 91.22 range. Focus ahead will be on the BoE TSC hearing, with the likes of Ramsden (Dove), Lombardelli (Neutral), Mann (Hawk) and Dhingra (Dove) all set to appear.
- UK sells GBP 0.75bln 4.25% 2032 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.35x (prev. 3.72x), average yield 4.109% (prev. 4.206%), tail 0.4bps (0.2bps).
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent have seemed to have stabilised following Monday’s risk-off selloff. Benchmarks extended below Monday’s trough of USD 58.62/bbl and USD 62.34/bbl, respectively, to a low of USD 58.59/bbl and USD 62.24/bbl as the APAC session came to an end. Thus far, benchmarks trade muted in a c. USD 0.40/bbl range with the EIA to release its STEO later today.
- Spot XAU failed to extend beyond the key support level at USD 4176/oz, troughing at USD 4170/oz, before reversing higher as the dollar continued to weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. XAU gradually rose c. USD 35/oz higher to a session high of USD 4209/oz as the European session gets underway, aided by hawkish comments by BoJ’s Ueda, which pressured USD/JPY and in turn, weakened DXY.
- 3M LME Copper continued to pull back from its ATH formed in Monday’s session, set at USD 11.75k/t, following a disappointing readout from the Politburo and a cautious risk tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. The red metal gradually fell from a session high of USD 11.66k/t to a trough of USD 11.43k/t throughout the APAC session. Currently, losses have been slightly pared back as the European session gets underway, with 3M LME Copper trading back above USD 11.5k/t
- Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average.
- Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russian drones attacked its gas infrastructure
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Nov) 1.2% (Prev. 1.5%).
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Nov) 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%).
- Barclays UK November Consumer Spending fell 1.1% Y/Y (prev. -0.8%), the largest decline since February 2021.
- UK Grocery Inflation was 4.7% in 4 weeks to Nov 30th, via Worldpanel; +3.6% in 12 weeks to Nov 30th Y/Y.
- German Imports MM SA (Oct) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 3.1%); Exports MM SA (Oct) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.4%); Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Oct) 16.9B vs. Exp. 15.6B (Prev. 15.3B).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
- Germany is to approve EUR 52bln in military orders, via Bloomberg.
- NBP’s Duda said it is necessary to wait before cutting rates to assess the impact of reductions already made on the economy.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US farmers said the Trump administration’s USD 12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- EU Commission President von der Leyen said as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
- Russia’s Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are “complete nonsense”.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower and holds around USD 90k, with Ethereum also in the red and holding just above the USD 3.1k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, where participants will also be eyeing the central bank’s latest dot plot projections, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China.
- ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
- Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday’s Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump’s announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
- RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
- China’s Premier said “we are confident in completing economic goals this year”, according to Xinhua.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he believes that the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond that. “Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we have been adjusting the degree of easing slowly”. As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, this has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating negative effects on employment and production in Japan. Strong enough momentum in domestic price and wage dynamics to prevent negative shocks from having a large impact on inflation. At the moment, not seeing a very high risk of inflation, especially underlying inflation accelerating in the wake of fiscal stimulus. Watching the possibility of food inflation and JPY weakness altering inflation expectations. It is the government’s job to deliver on medium to long-term fiscal sustainability. Keep an eye on bank exposure to non-bank financial institutions abroad. Exchange rates should follow fundamentals. How exchange rates will affect our inflation outlook is a “very important question for us.”
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he won’t comment on specifics on interest rates but noted that long-term interest rates are rising rather rapidly recently, adding that it will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Nov) 1.0 (Prev. 6.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Nov) 7.0 (Prev. 9.0, Rev. 10)
1c) Asian opening report
President Trump to allow NVIDIA to ship H200 chips to China; Quiet APAC session to continue into Europe – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 01:05 AM
- APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street, with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
- US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers.
- RBA unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks in London were productive and there is small progress towards peace.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Oct), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including ECB’s Nagel, BoJ’s Ueda, BoE’s Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ’s Breman, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from GameStop.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mostly lower to start the week with all sectors but Technology in the red, while Communications and Consumer Discretionary were the worst performers, with the former weighed by downside in Alphabet (GOOGL, -2.3%) and Netflix (NFLX, -3.4%) due to an attractive all-cash Paramount (PSKY, +9.0%) bid for Warner Bros (WBD, +4.4%). Tesla (TSLA, -3.4%) was weighed on Consumer Discretionary after receiving a downgrade at Morgan Stanley due to its high valuation, a more cautious EV outlook, and non-auto growth being priced in.
- A blip of reprieve was seen for US indices following a Semafor report that the US is to allow NVIDIA (NVDA, +1.7%) H200 chip exports to China, although the move swiftly pared for US indices, and mostly did for NVIDIA as well.
- SPX -0.35% at 6,847, NDX -0.25% at 25,628, DJI -0.45% at 47,739, RUT -0.02% at 2,251.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he spoke with Chinese President Xi very recently and thinks that China will buy even more soybeans than promised. Trump separately announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, while Trump added that President Xi responded positively, and that 25% will be paid to the US. Furthermore, Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the details, and that the same approach will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and other great US companies.
- US President Trump posted that ”Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years.” Trump added that the “U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”
- US President Trump said they will end up putting severe tariffs on fertiliser from Canada if they have to, while it was separately reported that the US Ambassador to Canada said President Trump doesn’t want to terminate USMCA, according to the National Post.
- US lawmakers urged US President Trump to ease Japan tariffs amid Chinese economic coercion, according to Nikkei.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are working on an India trade deal.
- Chinese Premier Li said at the ‘1 + 10’ dialogue with the heads of major international economic organisations that the global economy in 2025 is marked by turbulence and twists, creating urgent demand for reforming and improving global economic governance, while he added that tariffs have dominated global discussions on the economy this year and that mutually destructive consequences of tariffs becoming increasingly evident. Li said calls for free trade are growing louder and that AI is also becoming central to global trade discussions.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he is taking action to protect farmers and confirmed the US will provide USD 12bln aid to farmers. Trump said farming equipment has gotten too expensive, while he added that they will take those rules off and want a reduction in prices on farming equipment.
- US farmers said the Trump administration’s USD 12bln aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy, according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, where participants will also be eyeing the central bank’s latest dot plot projections, while downside was stemmed in the region amid a further warming of US-China trade relations after US President Trump confirmed that the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to sell its H200 chips to China.
- ASX 200 was pressured following the RBA rate decision where the central bank unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish as she stated that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future, while she added that the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
- Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses within a narrow range following recent currency weakness and anticipation that the BoJ will hike rates next week.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the readout from yesterday’s Politburo meeting underwhelmed, as some were hoping for more forceful measures, while chipmakers in China were pressured in early trade after US President Trump’s announcement to allow NVIDIA to sell chips to approved customers in China.
- US equity futures were rangebound but off yesterday’s worst levels, with the help of the further warming in US-China trade relations.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
FX
- DXY was little changed amid a non-committal tone ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement and rate projections, while there have been some mixed US trade/tariff-related headlines as US President announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries, but then threatened Mexico with an additional 5% tariff if it does not immediately release additional water to help US farmers.
- EUR/USD traded sideways amid a lack of catalysts and with the single currency largely unaffected by the recent bout of ECB rhetoric.
- GBP/USD kept afloat but with price action confined within tight parameters amid quiet pertinent newsflow and a sparse data calendar to begin the week, although there are several BoE policymakers scheduled to appear before the Treasury Select Committee later today.
- USD/JPY took a breather after climbing yesterday in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.6 earthquake, which prompted Japan to issue a tsunami warning, although this was later downgraded to a tsunami advisory and all advisories were eventually lifted.
- Antipodeans strengthened as focus was on the RBA meeting where the central bank maintained the Cash Rate at 3.60%, as unanimously forecast, while support was seen during the post-meeting press conference where RBA Governor Bullock noted that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0773 vs exp. 7.0748 (Prev. 7.0764).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued ahead of a 10-year auction and amid some pre-FOMC anxiety.
- Bund futures partially nursed some of its recent losses after retreating firmly beneath the 128.00 level yesterday amid a bond rout and following hawkish rhetoric from ECB’s Schnabel, while participants now await German trade data.
- 10yr JGB futures bounced off the prior day’s lows but with the recovery limited amid BoJ December rate hike expectations and following a weaker 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lacklustre after sliding throughout the prior day amid Ukraine/Russia updates including Ukrainian President Zelensky’s meeting with key European allies as he faces US pressure to reach a swift peace deal with Russia, and although little new was reported, the UK government stated that leaders all agreed it is a critical moment and that they must continue to ramp up support to Ukraine and economic pressure on Russian President Putin.
- Crude flow from Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 storage tanks resumed towards major crude oil depots of Tuba, according to energy sources cited by Reuters.
- Spot gold was indecisive in rangebound trade amid an uneventful dollar and with participants cautious ahead of the FOMC.
- Copper futures trickled lower with demand hampered amid the mostly subdued overnight risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was pressured overnight and returned to beneath the USD 90,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and noted that recent data suggests the risk to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess persistence of inflationary pressures, while it added that private demand is recovering, and labour market conditions still appear a little tight, though modest easing is expected. RBA said the board judged it appropriate to remain cautious and update its outlook as the data evolves, with the board to be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Furthermore, the board judged that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, while it is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that.
- RBA Governor Bullock said at the post-meeting press conference that inflation and jobs data will be important for the board meeting in February, while she added that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed. Bullock stated they did not consider a rate cut and did not explicitly consider the case for a rate hike at this meeting, but discussed the circumstances in which tightening might be required. Bullock said if inflation looks persistent, it will raise questions for policy, while she would not put timing on any future move and will proceed meeting by meeting. Furthermore, she doesn’t see rate cuts in the foreseeable future and noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but would not put a probability on it.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Nov) 1.0 (Prev. 6.0)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Nov) 7.0 (Prev. 9.0, Rev. 10)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli military announced it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in several areas in southern Lebanon.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks in London were productive and there is small progress towards peace, while he added that the Ukraine-Europe plan proposals should be ready by Tuesday to share with the US. Zelensky said Ukraine cannot give up land and that the US is trying to find a compromise on the issue, as well as noted that Ukraine lacks USD 800mln for the US weapons purchase programme this year. Furthermore, he said a Coalition of the Willing meeting is to take place this week and that China is not interested in forcing Russia to end its war in Ukraine.
- EU Commission President von der Leyen says as peace talks are ongoing, the EU remains ironclad in its support for Ukraine, while she added that the goal is a strong Ukraine, on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Furthermore, she said Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected, and Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed in the long term as a first line of defence for our union.
- UK government said leaders all agreed that now is a critical moment and must continue to ramp up support to Ukraine and economic pressure on Russian President Putin.
- The Times’ Swinford said “Britain and the EU are getting closer to releasing GBP 200bln worth of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction – announcement could come within days”.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Taylor said the foot is on the brake a little bit still, while he added that wage inflation and services inflation are coming down.
- European Parliament said parliament and member state negotiators reached a provisional deal to update EU rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements for companies. Furthermore, it stated that companies with more than 1,000 employees and annual turnover over EUR 450mln are to report on their sustainability, while large corporations with more than 5,000 employees and annual turnover of more than EUR 1.5bln are to carry out due diligence on their adverse impacts.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Nov) 1.2% (Prev. 1.5%)
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Nov) 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Barclays UK November Consumer Spending fell 1.1% Y/Y (prev. -0.8%), the largest decline since February 2021.
b. JAPAN
3. CHINA
USA//CHINA
“Things Are About To Snap”: China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion For The First Time, Sparking Global Howls Of Outrage
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 05:20 PM
With Europe finally realizing – very belatedly, as usual – that Trump was right all along in his crusade to hammer Beijing’s relentless dumping of exports to flood foreign markets with its below-cost wares as China no longer has nearly the required demand for goods and services and so has to crush and dominate foreign markets by selling at far below market prices, overnight we learned that China’s trade surplus in goods surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, highlighting the ongoing boom in the country’s exports despite US President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
Exports rose 5.9% in November on a year earlier, reversing October’s rare decline, while imports rose by 1.9% according to data released by China’s customs administration, which covers goods but not services.
The November surplus came in at $112 billion, the third-largest ever accumulated by China in a single month and far more than forecast by economists.
For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. That brought the country’s trade surplus this year to $1.08 trillion, China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday. The equivalent figure for the full year last year was just shy of $1 trillion. The record surplus comes in the wake of a de-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which agreed a year-long truce in October.
That remarkable surplus, never before seen in recorded economic history, is the culmination of decades of industrial policies and human industriousness that helped China emerge from a poor agrarian economy in the late 1970s to become the world’s second-largest economy.
What is remarkable is that China navigated the trade war and growing economic protectionism around the world, and needed just 11 months to catapult it past the full-year record set in 2024. While shipments to the US plummeted 29% in November…
…. the eighth month of double-digit declines and the biggest since August, strong growth in sales to regions like the European Union and Africa more than offset the slump.
Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank NV, said the rebounds in shipments to the EU and Japan were “perhaps a little surprising.”
“The November export data came in a little stronger than expected, despite a further deceleration of exports to the US,” Song said.
Shipments overseas – in many cases to regions such as Vietnam which then transship to the US – have boomed for much of this year, in spite of Trump’s launch of a trade war early in 2025. The world’s second-biggest economy has emerged largely unscathed from the standoff, as it delivered more goods to markets other than the US, which have then proceeded to ship Chinese imports onward to the US.
The display of export dominance is stirring waves of resentment abroad, especially among countries which are forced to shutter domestic industries as they fail to compete with much cheaper Chinese imports.
China’s industrial heft has long been well-known to its trading partners, becoming a central point of contention in its relations with the world. Last year, its trade surplus rose to a record $993 billion. Topping the $1 trillion milestone throws the magnitude of China’s export dominance into even starker relief and is likely to draw more attention to the growing imbalances.
“It is so big that it’s obvious that it’s not just the United States or Europe but the whole world that will have to fund that gap,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told the WSJ.
On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron, who just returned home after an otherwise cordial three-day summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing and Chengdu, warned that the EU may take “strong measures” including by imposing tariffs, should Beijing fail to address the imbalance.
“I told them that if they didn’t react, we Europeans would be forced, in the very near future, to take strong measures and withdraw from cooperation, like the United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products,” Macron said in an interview with French daily Les Echos.
“China is hitting the heart of the European industrial and innovation model,” he said. French officials have been particularly upset about the Chinese yuan, which has fallen by around 10% against the euro this year.
During a joint appearance with Xi in Beijing last Thursday, Macron said that these trade “imbalances are becoming unbearable.”
It was a remark that reflected sharpening French demands on Beijing to spur consumption and curb exports, and one Macron repeated to rapt Sichuan students and at a gathering with French and Chinese business leaders during his fourth trip to the country as president.
ING’s Song added that if “the EU indeed does follow suit with tariffs, it would represent a significant risk to the external demand outlook for China.”
France’s goods trade deficit with China has doubled in the past decade to €47bn in 2024. French investment in China over the same period is nearly quadruple China’s into France.
Paris is demanding Beijing recalibrate its trade and investment relationship with the EU, according to the FT.
“We are at the last stop before a crisis,” a French official warned. “If we don’t change course, we will worsen global fragmentation,” they added, suggesting Paris would have to consider “protective measures”.
Macron, who was accompanied on his trip by about 40 French business leaders, called for China to transfer technology to France in areas such as clean tech and batteries — a stark reminder of the shifting balance of power in crucial industrial sectors. The French president also defended EU trade investigations into Chinese electric vehicles, saying the bloc was taking a company-by-company approach.
“We need more tech neutrality and a European preference” for domestic industries such as automobiles, Macron said in Chengdu, capital of China’s south-western Sichuan province.
“This is not at all aggressive or protectionist. The Americans and other players in the North American market do it, the Chinese do it,” the president said. “The major risk for Europeans is accelerated deindustrialisation.”
But it’s not just France, says Eskelund of the European chamber, who points to a raft of bilateral trade complaints and actions leveled against China in recent months, including from not just the U.S. and its Western allies, but also from countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
“I have no doubt that we’ll see more, not less, in terms of all of these trade defense initiatives all over the world,” he said.
Eskelund says that China’s trade imbalance with the world is even more pronounced than the $1 trillion figure suggests, given the relative weakness of the Chinese yuan.
When calculated by value, China accounts for roughly 15% of global goods exports. But in volume terms, Eskelund estimates that every shipping container being sent from Europe to China is outnumbered by the four containers heading in the other direction. In volume terms, he estimates that China accounts for some 37% of everything being exported in shipping containers.
“Concern is growing,” he said, warning that, in the near future, we may “get to a point where things snap.”
The EU is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70% for certain products such as cars as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China. Brussels is also planning to tighten foreign investment rules to ensure Chinese companies do not gain advantage from the bloc’s open market without generating benefits for local workers and sharing technology.
For its part, China continues to make promises and deliver nothing. China’s commerce ministry on Friday repeated promises to eliminate restrictive measures in the domestic market and to spur consumption. But experts told the FT that Beijing has little intention of drastically altering its economic model. As a result, trade tensions between China and the bloc have sparked anti-dumping investigations in both directions.
The EU dairy sector is awaiting a ruling on a probe Beijing launched last year in retaliation against Brussels’ imposition of additional levies on Chinese EV imports. China could impose tariffs of as much as 40 per cent on dairy products on top of existing duties.
As Bloomberg notes, the trillion dollar milestone reached by China follows the recent de-escalation of tensions with the Trump administration. The huge surplus also underscores how Beijing is “struggling” to rebalance (as in it hasn’t even bothered to start) the economy away from its dependence on demand abroad, with net exports accounting for almost a third of economic growth this year.
“It does look like China’s export competitiveness is still standing firm against US tariffs,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale, referring to robust shipments to other markets than America. Rising trade tensions with the EU are “a source of downside risk to watch out for,” she said.
After Macron failed to make any impression on Xi’s export aspirations, on Monday, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul arrived in China for a two-day trip, becoming the latest senior European official to visit for talks. China’s exports to the EU expanded almost 15% last month – the fastest since July 2022 – with sales to France, Germany and Italy all seeing double-digit growth as Chinese exporters grab market shares from domestic producers. Meanwhile, European domestic industries are being snuffed out in one brutal, manufacturing depression as they fail to compete with Chinese substitutes.
Wadephul said before the trip that he’d raise trade curbs, especially on rare earths, and “overcapacities” in electric vehicles and steel with his Chinese counterparts. China’s auto imports are down almost 39% in the year to date.
Shipments overseas have boomed for much of this year, in spite of Trump’s launch of a trade war early in 2025. The world’s second-biggest economy has emerged largely unscathed from the standoff, as it delivered more goods to markets other than the US.
The year-on-year increase in exports of electronic and machinery products rebounded to almost 10% last month, versus October’s rise of just over 1%, according to Bloomberg calculations based on China’s customs data. Declines in shipments of consumer goods narrowed.
Exports to Africa surged nearly 28% in November, while those to the Southeast Asian trading bloc gained only 8.4%, the least since February. Despite escalating tensions over the self-governing island of Taiwan, imports from Japan rose faster in November than exports to there, resulting in a $1.3 billion deficit for China.
The historic trade surplus will help boost growth in China’s GDP after months of deterioration in the economy. Retail sales are coming off their longest stretch of slowdowns since 2021 while investment just shrank by a record amount. Although the Chinese economy is expanding at a slower pace in the last quarter of the year, its strong performance earlier in 2025 means the official growth target of around 5% is likely within reach.
As Bloomberg notes, foreign demand has been the one consistent driver of Chinese growth, helping compensate for lackluster private consumption at home and the prolonged slump in the housing market. But the trade picture has become increasingly unbalanced, with China’s weak demand and increasingly innovative firms slashing demand for imports.
While it’s “ultimately essential” for China to embrace a growth model driven more by domestic demand, such a pivot will take time, according to ING’s Song. In reality it will likely take years, and by then Europe’s domestic production will be decimated.
“We need to see what sort of concrete measures are put into place to boost domestic consumption, and how those measures to increase win-win cooperation and establish international consumption centers play out,” he said. “It’s quite clear at this point that relying on external demand as the main growth engine is a risky bet.”
END
CHINA/USA
THE TRUCE STILL NEEDS TO THAW!!
China To Limit Nvidia’s H200 Chip Access After Trump Greenlights Exports
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 07:50 AM
Update (Tuesday AM):
President Trump’s decision to greenlight exports of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China signals an effort to ease tensions with Beijing, following the trade truce from earlier this fall and ahead of his expected meeting with President Xi Jinping in China in April 2026.
Even with Trump opening the door for Nvidia’s high-end data-center AI chips to be exported to China, that doesn’t necessarily mean widespread adoption or booming sales in the world’s second-largest economy.
According to Financial Times sources, regulators in Beijing are considering plans to limit access to the H200 AI chips, even after Trump on Monday allowed exports to “approved customers” in China under national-security conditions and a 25% payment to the US.
This report comes as no surprise, given China’s push to develop and produce high-end AI chips domestically to reduce dependence on the West. However, tech giants like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent still prefer Nvidia chips for advanced AI tasks.
FT’s report continued:
Buyers would probably be required to go through an approval process, the people said, submitting requests to purchase the chips and explaining why domestic providers were unable to meet their needs.
No final decision had been made yet, the people added.
Trump’s move toward openness follows the Biden-Harris administration’s ban on H200 exports to China due to military-use concerns.
Headline-driven rollercoaster ride over the day….
Nvidia already ships a detuned H20 version to China (with a 15% revenue payment to the US), but Beijing has also limited its use, directing local companies to seek domestic alternatives.
We noted yesterday that this was the most likely outcome.
* * *
Having pumped (and dumped) earlier today on reports that the Trump administration will allow H200 chip exports to China, NVDA shares extending gains the after-hours (to the highs of the day) after President issued a statement on X, confirming he will allow Nvidia to ship its chips to China and noting that “President Xi respondedly positively.”
NVDA spiked…
Trump wrote that “I have informed President Xi, of China, that the United States will allow NVIDIA to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China, and other Countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security.”
He added that:
“President Xi responded positively!”
At a cost:
“25% will be paid to the United States of America. This policy will support American Jobs, strengthen U.S. Manufacturing, and benefit American Taxpayers.”
Trump continued:
“The Biden Administration forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building “degraded” products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed Innovation, and hurt the American Worker. That Era is OVER!
We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in Al. NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal. My Administration will always put America FIRST.
The Department of Commerce is finalizing the details, and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Permission for H200 exports is seen as a compromise from Nvidia’s earlier push to sell its more advanced Blackwell design chips to Chinese customers, a person familiar with the matter said prior to the announcement.
After meeting with Trump on Wednesday, Huang expressed uncertainty about whether China would accept Nvidia’s H200 chips should the US relax restrictions on sales of the processors.
“We don’t know. We have no clue,” Huang said, as he headed into a closed-door meeting with members of the Senate Banking Committee, which has jurisdiction over export controls.
“We can’t degrade chips that we sell to China — they won’t accept that.”
So, Jensen gets his deal at a cost – if China wants the ‘old chips’ – and Trump gets to brag about more revenue for Washington and support the stock market.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Netanyahu Rejects Retirement In Exchange For Pardon: ‘Let Voters Decide’
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 02:45 AM
In Israel there’s talk of the scenario where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can receive a full pardon in his criminal corruption cases if he agrees retires from political life, and on Sunday he addressed this controversial proposal during a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
When asked by a reporter if he will retire in order to obtain the pardon, Netanyahu shot back with a firm “No” – and then said, “They’re very concerned with my future. They want to make sure that – how shall I say this? – They’re concerned with my future.”
“Well, so are the voters, and they’ll decide, obviously, but we have big tasks to do, including with Germany in historic cooperation that will actually, actually will, in many ways, tower over our previous cooperation, which was quite amazing, but that’s not surprising, because, as you can see, Chancellor Merz is a towering figure,” the prime minister added
President Trump has tried to intervene in the long-running legal saga, but lately Netanyahu has expressed that he needs more support from Washington.
As Israeli President Herzog considers a pardon – which he’s granted the legal power to do – he has explained to Politico: “Everybody understands that any pre-emptive pardon has to be considered on the merits.” And so he has vowed to “deal with it with utter seriousness.”
“I respect President Trump’s friendship and his opinion … But Israel, naturally, is a sovereign country, and we fully respect the Israeli legal system and its requirements. The well-being of the Israeli people is my first, second and third priority,” Herzog added, in a desire to distance himself from being viewed as under foreign influence.
“They’re very concerned with my future,” Bibi quipped before reporters in Germany…
Back in January, Netanyahu began interrogation sessions connected to a series of cases – all of which he’s asserted his innocence in. For a review:
- Case 1000 concerns allegations that Netanyahu and his wife accepted luxury gifts, such as cigars and champagne, from wealthy businessmen in exchange for political favors.
- Case 2000 involves claims that Netanyahu negotiated with Arnon Mozes, publisher of Yedioth Ahronoth, to secure more favorable press coverage.
- Case 4000 — viewed as the most serious — centers on accusations that Netanyahu provided regulatory and financial benefits to Shaul Elovitch, the former owner of the Walla news site and Bezeq telecommunications, in return for positive media treatment.
Netanyahu has also long faced accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity – but pressure over this has mainly been on the international and European front, related to international criminal court probes.
President Trump has still firmly had his back, and has weighed in vocally in the case, asking Israel to dismiss all charges. At the same time there’s only so much Washington can do, especially at a moment of deep internal turmoil in Israeli domestic politics.
PM Netanyahu formally submitted the pardon request to Herzog on November 30, sparking opposition backlash demanding that the president quickly shoot it down.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/EU
IMBECILE!!
Zelensky Definitively Shuts Door On Trump Peace Plan, Won’t Cede Territory
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while meeting with so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ European leaders in London on Monday definitively ruled out that his country will agree to cede territory as part of a peace deal.
He specified that the question of territorial compromise is why he has not reached agreement on Donald Trump’s peace deal. “There are visions of the US, Russia and Ukraine – and we don’t have a unified view on Donbas,” Zelensky told Bloomberg.
Zelensky also wants much firmer security guarantees in the Washington plan. “There is one question I — and all Ukrainians — want to get an answer to: if Russia again starts a war, what will our partners do,” he said shortly before meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz.
But the US peace plan hinges precisely on offering some level of significant territorial compromise, given that Moscow – which has the clear upper hand militarily – considers anything less to be an automatic non-starter not worth even discussing.
President Trump has recently declared that if Zelensky rejects the US plan, he should be ready to fight Russia alone and with much less Washington help. But is Trump ready to cut off weapons supplies altogether?
Likely he’ll be content with Europe buying them, and still transferring them to Kiev. But all of this could mean that US intel sharing is finally cut off.
Meanwhile Trump has belittled ‘weak’ Europe for seeking to scrap together a counter-plan:
President Trump mocked Europe’s involvement on Monday, sharing an opinion piece which praises him for sideling “impotent Europeans” from the Ukraine peace talks. Trump has also criticized Zelensky, accusing him of not reading the latest peace proposals.
As for the US peace plan, it appears to have been primarily drafted by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev – but so far the Zelensky government has complained that it’s being cut out of the process.
Zelensky has throughout the war consistently rejected any proposal which features territorial concessions. He is supported especially be Ukrainian hardliners, both in the military and in parliament.
Kiev and EU’s maximalist counter-demands…
Now he’s seeking to get European leaders to back him up, and they appear to be doing so. This is all a recipe for keeping the endless war going with no end in sight, and the proxy conflict nature of it continues to get dangerously out of hand.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
This is good!!
Defense Bill Requires Trump Spy Agencies To Declassify COVID-19 Origins Intel, Chinese Obstruction
PM
Slipped into the nearly 3,100-page National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is a provision that requires “declassification” and “transparency” related to the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, and would require the Trump administration’s spy agencies to release its intelligence related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology where COVID research was offshored by the Obama administration in October of 2014 with a grant to EcoHealth Alliance, a New York City nonprofit run by Peter Daszak.
In March of 2018, Daszak submitted a grant proposal titled Project DEFUSE (short for “Defusing the Threat of Bat-borne Coronaviruses”) to DARPA, which sought to create genetically modified bat coronaviruses with enhanced potential for human infectivity – including features that could enable aerosol (airborne) transmission. The proposal was ultimately rejected by DARPA over safety concerns – however “if funding became available,” then certain components of particular interest could proceed.
So, let’s see if the NDAA passes with this language – and whether it confirms the above Fauci-funded adventures in Wuhan. Of note, Peter Daszak – unlike Fauci – was not pardoned by former President Joe Biden and the infamous autopen.
The text of the NDAA – specifically section 6803 of the text, calls on the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to work with the heads of all 18 US spy agencies to “perform a declassification review of intelligence” related to “the origins of Coronavirus Disease 2019,” and related to “efforts by government officials of entities of the People’s Republic of China” to cover up the origins of the pandemic.
“DNI Gabbard remains committed to declassifying COVID-19 information and looks forward to continued work with Congress to share the truth about pandemic-era failures with the American people,” a DNI spokesperson told Just the News.
Recall that while the government was locking us down, Dr. Anthony Fauci and those in his orbit were actively fabricating a ‘wet market’ narrative that would conceal US research as a possible origin – despite his own advisors initially insisting that COVID-19 looked manmade.
Among other things, the NIH helped fund experiments at WIV that infected genetically engineered mice with “chimeric” hybrids of SARS-related bat coronaviruses in what some scientists have described as unacceptably risky research.
…
Andersen laid them out plainly in an email to Fauci that same evening. “The unusual features of the virus make up a really small part of the genome (<0.1%) so one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered,” Andersen wrote in the email. “I should mention,” he added, “that after discussions earlier today, Eddie, Bob, Mike and myself all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory. But we have to look at this much more closely and there are still further analyses to be done, so those opinions could still change.” -The Intercept
Those who questioned this narrative, including ZeroHedge, were harshly punished – while outlets like the LA Times went so far carrying water for Fauci that it opined “The COVID lab leak claim isn’t just an attack on science, but a threat to public health.”
The Trump administration meanwhile has begun a renewed push to get to the bottom of the COVID-19 virus, Just the News reports, adding “there’s more and more evidence — including by non-U.S. intelligence agencies — indicating that it came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
Yet, a massive pile of intelligence related to the origins of the virus remain classified, and Congress now wants the Trump intelligence community to provide clarity.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, continues to deflect from the possibility of a Wuhan lab leak, instead pushing the theory that COVID-19 originated from Fort Detrick, a US military base that’s home to the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) Integrated Research Facility (IRF-Frederick).
While there is no direct evidence that USAMRIID was involved in pre-pandemic research, the facility has studied SARS-CoV-1 (2003) and MERS-CoV since the early 2000s, including reverse genetics for chimeric viruses and interferon therapies. Collaborations with UNC’s Ralph Baric – who created ‘humanized mice‘ for Wuhan scientists to infect, informed later gain-of-function debates but predate SARS-CoV-2.
In short, it looks like:
- The US government offshored risky gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses to Wuhan, China
- The WIV had poor lab security
- American researchers collaborated with WIV scientsts to create chimeric (genetically modified) bat coronaviruses, likely including COVID-19.
- The virus coincidentally escaped just in time to cause a global pandemic that crushed Trump’s economic momentum, resulting in vote-by-mail during the 2020 ‘fraud-free’ election that saw Joe Biden receive more votes than any president in US history.
During Gabbard’s Senate confirmation hearing in January, she said that many senators had “expressed bipartisan frustration about recent intelligence failures and the lack of responsiveness to your requests for information,” including related to “failures to identify the source of the COVID.”
As a result, she established the Director’s Initiatives Group (DIG) in April, which has a goal of “investigating weaponization, rooting out deep-seeded politicization, exposing unauthorized disclosures of classified intelligence, and declassifying information that serves a public interest.”
An ODNI official told Just the News that Gabbard and her team are working hard to investigate intelligence failures related to COVID-19, including investigating possible suppression of the lab leak hypothesis within the intelligence community and carrying out a wide-ranging review of U.S.-funded gain-of-function research.
The official also said ODNI is coordinating with other spy agency elements such as the FBI and Department of Energy to share details about COVID-19 inquiries.
The ODNI official added that Gabbard’s office had provided Congress with requested documents on COVID origins, including records that were improperly withheld by the Biden Administration. Gabbard’s office is also interviewing whistleblowers and weighing the declassification of further records, the official said. -Just the News
If the NDAA is passed by the House and Senate and signed into law by Trump, it would require Gabbard and the ODNI to conduct two separate classification reviews related to COVID-19. The first review would cover the origins of the virus, and calls on Gabbard to review the intelligence on “research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology or any other medical or scientific research center within the People’s Republic of China,” and “information relating to Gain of Function research and the intention of this research.” The review would also look into “information relating to sources of funding or direction for research on coronaviruses, including both sources within the People’s Republic of China and foreign sources.”
The second declassification review would call on ODNI to look at Beijing’s efforts “to disrupt or obstruct information sharing or investigations into the origins” of COVID-19, and “to disrupt the sharing of medically significant information relating to the transmissibility and potential harm of SARS–CoV–2 to humans.” This second review would also look into China’s attempts “to deny the sharing of information with the United States, allies and partners of the United States, or multilateral organizations, including the United Nations and the World Health Organization,” along with Beijing’s efforts “to pressure or lobby” governments, organizations and officials related to COVID-19.
Let’s see if the Trump administration squanders yet another chance to provide long-promised clarity on a major issue of national interest, after thoroughly botching the Epstein release.
GLOBAL ISSUES
Jim Quinn On The West’s Mass Collective Societal Suicide
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
“Historians will look back at the wreckage of a once-great American civilization and not with wonder that tens of millions of people who were entirely dependent upon government welfare payments were nonetheless allowed to vote.
Even to include millions of illiterate 3rd world illiterate aliens who snuck in, then were put on welfare, and were given driver’s licenses and social security numbers, so they could vote in elections to give themselves more welfare. Eventually, the historians will agree that America committed mass collective suicide, because obviously such insane policies could never be contemplated by a rational people.” – Matt Bracken
The United States and many other formerly western white developed world countries have been in the process of committing mass collective societal suicide for the past thirty five years, with a rapid acceleration over the last several years.
The implications are vast, with the ultimate extinguishment of the white race baked into the demographic cake, unless massive changes in immigration policies are implemented and a cultural reversal in attitudes about having children takes hold. Neither seems likely at this point. The chart below paints a dire picture, but it is even worse than it appears.
The chart tells a story of which countries have embraced the mass suicide of their culture and those still resisting. The chart reveals the number of immigrants, but not where they came from and whether they arrived legally. So, Switzerland has the largest number of immigrants and a 66% increase since 1990, but the vast majority are from other European countries, as only 2% of their population are African. Iceland is another similar example, as the number of immigrants since 1990 has increased by a factor of six, but Africans still make up less than 1% of their population.
All you need to do is follow alt-media outlets to understand which countries have purposefully decided to destroy their cultures, economies, and national identity at the behest of globalist billionaires attempting to implement their Great Reset new world order by destroying the social and economic fabric of formerly white countries. Just view video evidence posted daily on the internet to know which countries are circling the drain because they have allowed and encouraged an invasion of low IQ, ignorant, violent, feral, 3rd world dregs to overwhelm their formerly cohesive white nations. Diversity has proven not to be a strength.
Those with the most dramatic transformation (deformation) towards 3rd world shithole status include: Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, Italy and the U.K.
In the case of Ireland it isn’t necessarily the pure number, but the growth of groups who are wreaking havoc. There were approximately 4,000 Muslims in Ireland in 1990. Today there are over 100,000 Muslims (2% of total population) and their growth rate is accelerating. They are highly concentrated in the major cities and account for the large percentage of crime, while consuming an inordinate percentage of welfare outlays. The captured woke Irish politicians allow this demographic to commit murder, while locking up white Irish natives for speaking out against this invasion.
Sweden is the poster child for the mass insanity of a previously homogeneous, safe, white society. There were approximately 50,000 Muslims in Sweden in 1990, less than 1% of the total population. Inexplicably, other than as part of a globalist plot to destroy Sweden, the fostered invasion by Muslim hordes has resulted in 2 million (20% of total population) of these godless savages rampaging through Sweden’s urban areas, raping Swedish girls and siphoning billions in welfare benefits. There are areas within Swedish cities declared no-go-zones, where even the police won’t go. Were the white Swedish people so guilt ridden by their 1st world, happy, homogeneous society, they felt the need to commit harakiri by opening their doors to a population who hate whites and all non-Muslims?
When I spent several days in Belgium in 1990, walking the streets of Brussels was safe and enjoyable. History and magnificent architecture oozed from every crevice. Muslims accounted for 2.7% of the population. Today they account for 8% of the population and white people are afraid to walk the streets. The once glorious culture of Belgium has been degraded, as they plunge towards third world shithole status. It has all been planned, initiated, and executed by the EU/WEF globalist coalition of billionaire psychopaths in suits.
Italy has historically been a very homogeneous nation, with Rome as the center of the Christian world. In 1990, there were less than 150,000 Muslims (less than 1% of total population) living in Italy. Today, after years of boats arriving from Africa with hordes of “refugees”, there are approximately 3 million Muslims representing 5% of the population. That is an invasion worthy of D-Day. These people don’t fit into Italian society, nor do they want to assimilate into Italian society. They stay in enclaves, where whites don’t dare venture. The largest Mosque in Europe is now located in Rome and the pope is a cuck to the Muslim religious fanatics.
Which brings us to our long-time ally – the U.K. The growth of immigrants is up 170% since 1990. Again, this has not occurred naturally or by accident. There has been a coordinated effort to “diversify” the whiteness out of the U.K. And if you point this out publicly, like Tommy Robinson has done, you are arrested and thrown in prison, while the savage Muslims rape your daughters and suck your welfare system dry. The U.K. police thugs crackdown on grannies for social media posts while violent Muslims wreak havoc in the capital and other urban areas. Dozens of native British citizens are thrown in jail daily for “offensive” social media posts.
In 1990, there were approximately 600,000 Muslims, making up a little more than 1% of the U.K. population. Today, they number 4 million, or 6.5% of the U.K. population. They may make up only 6.5% of the population, but do make up over 17% of the prison population. They spread hate and chaos wherever they go. The overthrow of the U.K. by Muslim hordes, promoted by captured co-conspiratorial government officials, and bankrolled by the likes of Soros, Gates, and their fellow WEF billionaire cronies, is well under way and unlikely to be stopped at this point.
Most of these European countries are too far gone to be saved. Their double pronged suicide pact not only includes the implosion of their cultures through importation of low IQ violent savages, but a World War 3 death wish from provoking Putin and depleting their treasuries to supply the most corrupt regime (Ukraine) in world history in a fruitless losing effort meant to distract their populace from their disastrous domestic policies.
The U.S., on the other hand has not crossed the Rubicon yet. Immigrant growth of 65% since 1990 is large, but considerably less than their European counterparts. The worst happened during the dementia basement dummy’s reign of error and terror, as his handlers implemented the Soros/Gates/Schwab Great Reset plan to the best of their ability while Joe took naps and shit his pants.
The U.S. immigration debacle is multi-pronged, with 52 million total immigrants, but an astronomical number of those being illegal invaders. The Muslim problem is large and growing. In 1990, there were approximately 750,000 Muslims in the U.S., constituting about 0.3% of the total population. They now number close to 5 million, or 1.5% of the population.
That doesn’t sound like a lot, but they take over specific areas of our urban enclaves and then gain power by electing themselves into political positions. They spread hate and divisiveness, while committing an inordinate amount of crimes, and gaming/scamming the welfare system. Muslim men who account for less than 1% of the total U.S. population, now account for 9% of all prison inmates.
With Somalis stealing billions from taxpayers in Minnesota, with the blessing of retard Walz and incestuous Omar, in the news for the last few weeks, the question of why Minnesota and other areas of the U.S. have been flooded by these low IQ , deceptive, criminal lowlifes is unanswered. There were only 2,000 Somalis in the U.S. in 1990. Now there are 300,000, with one-third in the Minneapolis area. Why would people from a country with an average temperature of 90 degrees emigrate to a region with winter temperatures averaging 20 degrees?
This invasion was clearly coordinated and planned by the globalists looking to create havoc, disarray, the tearing of the social fabric of a vibrant white culture, and the destruction of community norms which have successfully sustained our society for decades. One must ask themselves, has the increase in 3rd world African shithole country migrants from under 400,000 in 1990 to near 5 million today benefited our country? If these low IQ dregs supposedly increase the vibrancy and diversity of our country, why are the countries they came from still shitholes? Their occupation in our country costs real American taxpayers BILLIONS per year in welfare payments, not to mention the outsized cost of dealing with their rampant criminal behavior.
There is a reason Africa looks the same today as it did a century ago, before the western world poured $2.6 trillion down the shithole drain of 3rd world countries who do not have the wherewithal or intelligence to improve their own lot.
It’s bad enough for our society with the invasion of Africans/Muslims, but the biggest issue over the last several years was the Biden/Harris coordinated attack on America, with their co-conspirators Soros, Gates, USAID, bought off democrat politicians, globalist funded NGOs, and willing apparatchiks within the government bureaucracy. The border was opened wide, as busses, trains, and air transport dropped 3rd world mutts into our cities across the land. All designed to undermine our once cohesive society.
There are now approximately 27 million Latin Americans roaming our streets, refusing to assimilate, committing crimes, and sucking our welfare system dry. At least 14 million of them are illegal, but the number is probably much higher. They may be illegal, but somehow they vote, get drivers licenses, collect welfare, go to our public schools, commit an outsized proportion of crime, and generally create chaos and havoc in our own democrat run urban shithole cities. The country is already $38 trillion in debt, with another $200 trillion of unfunded welfare liabilities. Our cities and states are also essentially bankrupt, using GAAP accounting. Allowing the country to be overrun by 3rd world rabble is accelerating our societal suicide.
But that is the point, isn’t it. There is no rational explanation for why the U.S. and western European countries would insanely encourage and allow the uninhibited invasion of their nations by 3rd world riff-raff who degrade and diminish the standard of living of their native populations. The level of bribes, payoffs, corruption, and propaganda from feckless legacy media outlets, are at astronomical levels when it comes to promoting and propagating this mass collective societal suicide. The amount of money to initiate and perpetuate this global years long invasion numbers in the hundreds of billions and could only be funded by the likes of Soros, Gates, and their other Davos billionaire cronies.
The goals are demoralization of the white native populations of western developed nations, the destruction of the economies sustaining the formerly 1st world status of these countries, degradation of the culture through insane woke agendas celebrating abnormality, capture of governments through insertion of political operatives, and indoctrination of the youth within the government school systems and universities with radical communistic beliefs destined to purposefully fail. Their Great Reset/Great Taking plan is real. You will own nothing and not actually be very happy once they are done with you.
None of what is happening is normal or naturally occurring. It’s part of a plan to enslave the world in a digital gulag, where your CBDCs will be doled out according to your subservience and maintaining the proper social credit score, and everything you say, type or do will be monitored 24/7 by the ruling totalitarian oligarchs who have society’s “best interest” at heart. Wait until they pull the plug on the financial system and your 401k is vaporized/ bailed-in to “save” the system. They will own everything and you will own nothing. We are already more than 50% down this path.
If I lived in the UK, this article would get me thrown in jail.
“The real hopeless victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most normal. “Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their lives, that they do not even struggle or suffer or develop symptoms as the neurotic does.” They are normal not in what may be called the absolute sense of the word; they are normal only in relation to a profoundly abnormal society. Their perfect adjustment to that abnormal society is a measure of their mental sickness. These millions of abnormally normal people, living without fuss in a society to which, if they were fully human beings, they ought not to be adjusted.”
– Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited
The censorship police will be coming to the U.S. next. Their propaganda machine has convinced billions what is happening is normal. But it is profoundly abnormal, as Huxley described seven decades ago. This mass societal suicide in progress is a form of mental illness and I refuse to adjust my mind to this warped abnormal dystopian fantasy world. Time is growing short to stand up against the psychopaths in suits implementing their abnormal agenda. I hope enough of us are up to the challenge.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
We are being ‘handled’ misled bullshitted by HHS, FDA, NIH, CDC et al…there is NO, zero intent to now or ever cancel, stop, rescind Malone Bourla Pfizer Moderna BioNTech Sahin et al. mRNA vaccine;
The Outlaw Josie Wales ensures this, and this is the game plan, on the inside I have been told, they have a master list of all the low-hanging fruit, working with the government as bad stories emerge,
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 8 |
using HHS to come out with some breaking important steps…this is all an orchestrated misdirection game of deception inside government using the health agencies now to FC*K the nation, all devised to maintain mRNA vaccine as they know this is really all and mainly what you wanted those clowns who got those senior health agencies posts to do…there is just too much money made by crooked people in Trump’s term one with Operation warp speed (OWS) deadly lockdowns and the mRNA vaccine and in Biden’s term and much more to make so mRNA vaccine WILL transition all vaccines to that platform, deadly as it is…they do not care if you die! never did, just MONEY! too many people in line to make billions…the public’s safety and health is NOT an issue.
This is all a devastating game of money and deaths…they make the money and we die! They are engaging in actions again and continued that will cause deaths. Needless. There is zero medical, data, clinical, research etc. reason for mRNA vaccine to be on US market today! None! There is zero evidence of benefit and only skews to harms! To maintain a non-sterilizing so called vaccine on market IMO is criminal and the deaths accruing re the use of the Malone mRNA vaccine rests at the feet of HHS, NIH, FDA et al. and no matter how long, we will get these people under oath and facing justice.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Wager me, debate me anyone, I guarantee you, you will be bombarded with all kinds of irrelevant crap between now and next 3 years and in November 2028, mRNA vaccine will still be on US market, deadly as it is, for children, for all adults etc. as is now and even expanded, the goal of The outlaw and Bourla et al. is to transition all vaccines to mRNA platform…CRISPR, small inserting DNA platforms et al. Trials and research to assess safety etc. is not on the agenda. Just money and power and control and evil devilish actions.
Watch, you watch, and look now how I am cluing you in, HHS and FDA is being used as a political tool, to help deflect and mislead and bullshit the nation away from urgent pressing larger issues as they emerge that the public has to be diverted from, and to maintain confusion and deception over the deadliness of the mRNA vaccine. They are doing their jobs, HHS, FDA, NIH heads, which is to deflect and cover up and ensure mRNA is maintained. Argue with me as to how it is being run any differently.
It is my firm belief today RFK Jr. will not now, or ever, while at HHS, do anything to stop, remove, slow down etc. mRNA vaccine from remaining on US market and replacing all other vaccines. His job is to maintain it and expand it. We were fooled. And in doing that, make it look like they are working on mRNA vaccine yet throwing out scraps for us to feed on and have people like headless chickens running around saying para ‘5 D chess and baby steps’…that’s a load of bullshit. The health agencies are now a political arm of the government working in a timely manner and used ‘as need be’…when things get hot in DC. I argue the HHS and FDA are worse now in this administration that under Biden and Trump term one. They are devious and deceptive and duplicitous. Dangerous IMO.
One more time, mRNA vaccine is here to stay…will never ever be moved for those who got money, crooked death money prior will not be giving any back, nor will they be held accountable, no justice…what we need to do is to keep informing and education for the public has to get to the place to say NO and take NONE and when they lock us down and shut us out, again, for another fake non-pandemic using the over-cycled PCR, then we go to the ballot and the courts, and we put down tools and refuse to comply. It is the only way. We the people must stand up. They will never stop if we do not stop them at the ballot or courts.
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. The Wellness Company, launched in 2022, offers health care, prescriptions, and supplements, all backed by research
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From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
end
Redfield, after you boasted about your 9th mRNA shot, your Malone Bourla Bancel Sahin Pfizer Moderna et al. shot that you helped shill & people died, now you IRRELEVANT & a HAS-BEEN to be in news you
now calling for the Malone et al. mRNA vaccine to be removed, pulled? after so many died being misled by the likes of you? I want you under oath & in proper courts & judges for them to decide how to
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 9 |
punish you, you are a deceitful wretch to now be calling for it to be removed, you are so very duplicitous for this is nothing other than irrelevance and you will go down as one of the most devastating CDC directors for really they are all loons, all CDC directors, as dumb as rocks like Rochelle, and inept technocrats and just stupid incompetent people, technically specious and academically lazy, like you were Bob Redfield, but you were special, for you resided over the con and lie and deceit and misleading of POTUS Trump, you misled him, lied to him, you lied to him and deceived a nation, you and your ‘made up’ 6 foot social distancing rule’, shame on you trying for relevance now, why don’t you stfu, no one is interested in what you selling now! you harmed enough people! I guess you figured it out, prostrate yourself, cup HHS and FDA officials’ testicles whole day long and you may well get a job at FDA or CDC ACIP…hell you may get one advising RFK Jr. at HHS….yes that’s it, just wash some HHS officials stones and a job will be yours…somewhere…”wink wink nod nod”…yes yes yes, you now part of the OP, the program, you know, when the politics look bad, send out some NEW HHS announcement, it’s a scheme now where The Outlaw Wales is using HHS to help deal with domestic failures, so tee up an HHS announcement, that’s all, get HHS and FDA to go after some low hanging fruit like Hep B vaccine, or mercury or Tylenol…and autism…but NEVER ever talk about mRNA vaccine and deaths it caused and yes, get a has-been like Redfield to tee it up…confuse you about mRNA, yet nothing will be done…for the OP continues, for in the end, the public are still ravaged by what was done to them in the COVID and Malone mRNA death shots so thinking HHS et al. are somehow going to do good by them,
trying to tell us that you were silenced by Trump? are you kidding me?…you actually was one of them working against Trump…do not try to re-write history…you are a failed COVID Task Force member, like the rest save Giroir.
‘Former CDC Director Robert Redfield calls for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines to be pulled
“Breaking: Former CDC Director Robert Redfield calls for the immediate withdrawal of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines as safety concerns mount. Discover the implications and reactions.”’
end
NEWSWIZE
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| JUST IN: Top Admiral Shuts Down Dems’ Hegseth Witch Hunt During Senate HearingAdmiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley, who currently serves as the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), denied during congressional testimony on Thursday that War Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a follow-up strike on “survivors” of an airstrike on an drug-trafficking vessel in the Caribbean back in September. Bradley, a decorated former Navy SEAL with more than 30 years of service, participated …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NEW: Pipe Bomb Suspect Sued Trump DHS, Asked Biden DOJ To Address RacismBrian Cole Jr., the suspect who allegedly planted pipe bombs outside the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee on January 5, 2021, ran a bail fund that sued the Trump-led Department of Homeland Security in an attempt to free illegal aliens from custody. Weeks before Cole allegedly planted the bombs — which were central to the left’s narrative …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| JUST IN: Virginia Grand Jury Refuses To Indict Letitia JamesA federal grand jury in deep blue Norfolk, Virginia has refused to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James on mortgage fraud charges. James was previously indicted earlier this year, though the case was tossed by a federal judge on a technicality surrounding the appointment of interim U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, Lindsey Halligan. Halligan initially presented …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| JUST IN: Ilhan Omar Under Fire After New Details Reveal Close Ties To Somali Minneapolis FraudstersIlhan Omar is facing intense pressure after emerging details revealed deep personal and political proximity to several Somali-American figures now implicated in one of the largest fraud scandals in Minnesota history. The massive scheme, centered around Minneapolis and surrounding communities, involved hundreds of millions of dollars in pandemic-era welfare programs that federal prosecutors say were systematically exploited. What began as …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| NEW: Supreme Court Approves Red State Congressional Map That Could Decide Midterm ElectionsThe U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday indicated that Republican-dominated Texas will be allowed to use its recently-crafted congressional maps that will likely net the GOP five additional seats in next year’s midterm elections. In a brief order, the high court determined that a lower court misread evidence and ignored required legal inferences in blocking the map from taking last month. …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Trump Reversing “Humphrey’s Executor” Is NOT Priced In
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 10:00 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
There are key central bank decisions this week, starting with the RBA today. However, the market has already priced in their expected outcomes. What it’s failing to price in, though it’s more important, is the stream of political and geopolitical developments in which it operates. Not Trump threatening Mexico with an extra 5% tariff over water; nor threats of tariffs on Indian rice and Canadian fertilizer; nor Trump about to unveil a $12bn farm aid package, tasking his top advisers with finding ways to lower soaring beef prices; nor Nigeria helping foil a coup in Benin, Thailand and Cambodia attacking each other, and Israel bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Rather, the US Supreme Court appears ready to overturn decades of precedent to grant Trump the power to fire a swathe of government officials. Reversing ‘Humphrey’s Executor’ will allow him to overcome legal and bureaucratic resistance to the Gramscian changes he’s introducing to the political economy. That isn’t priced in. Indeed, despite Justice Kavanaugh’s opposition, it could put the Fed in the firing line too, with Governor Cook’s court case in January and a Fed Chair nominee, likely Hassett, promised within weeks. That isn’t priced in either.
Neither is Friday’s US National Security Strategy (NSS) even if for some countries and many markets it implies staggering changes ahead.
It’s America First, starting with “protecting the country and its way of life” and ending with “restoring US spiritual and cultural health”.
Its working principles are a focused definition of national interests; peace through strength; a predisposition to non-interventionism; flexible realism; the primacy of nations; a balance of power; pro-American worker; fairness; and competence and merit.
Its priorities begin with “The era of mass migration is over”; protection of core rights and liberties; burden-sharing and burden-shifting; realignment through peace; and economic security, focused on balanced trade, access to critical supply chains and materials, reindustrialisation, rebuilding the defence industrial base, energy dominance, and financial sector dominance.
In the Americas, the US wants to “enlist” new friends to work with it, and it will expand its military presence there via a ‘Trump Corollary” to Monroe Doctrine. The goal is for “partner nations” to build up their domestic economies, while a “stronger and more sophisticated” Western Hemisphere grows for the US. That’s not the traditional US model of US cheap labour and resource extraction. The plan is also to “expand” its list of partners while pushing out influence from “non-hemispheric competitors”, which sounds like regime change, a long-standing tradition.
In Asia, the aim is to “win the economic future” and “prevent military confrontation. Even with Trump agreeing to sell older Nvidia chips to China, the NSS states: “we will rebalance America’s economic relationship with China, prioritising reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence. Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive factors.” Indeed, the US will “resist predatory, state-directed subsidies and industrial strategies,” etc. Moreover, “We must encourage… prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption.” So, a US bloc with a common external tariff against China. This “must be accompanied by a robust and ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war in the Indo-Pacific”, and from Taiwan to the South China Sea, this means much more military burden-sharing from US allies and partners.
For Europe, the emphasis is on decline and the starker “prospect of civilisational erasure.” There is a litany of US complaints about the EU’s strategy and the view that “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.” This is then sharpened to, “Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the US, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.”
While the FT talks of ‘Trump’s America and a clash of civilizations with Europe’, the NSS argues “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the US…Not only can we not afford to write Europe off – doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve…. Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.” So, the US wants to remake Europe state by state, ignoring the EU. The NSS says policy will prioritise “Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.”
The NSS also says “It is a core interest of the US to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” Yet after meeting Macron, Merz, and Starmer yesterday, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he won’t yield any territory to Russia. The war may grind on… and the US may walk away, leaving Europe to pay and provide materiel for it. In parallel, Reuters reports the US plans to hand over the running of European NATO by end-2027. If so, European plans to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would be completely inadequate, more so if there is war nor peace. This could require spending 8-10% of GDP for the next two years; or Russia might win, which Europe has said is “existential” for it. The Deputy Secretary of State also just posted that the US will no longer accept NATO meeting with it and talking ‘alliance’, then after it leaves, the same countries changing hats to ‘EU’ and pushing policies that undermine US interests. He implies one or the other will have to change. That has huge implications of its own, including the US openly playing divide and rule via security with the EU: east/north vs west/south.
In short, the NSS puts Europe –as currently constituted– in a terrible geopolitical position with no good options. The response so far has been silence (‘As Trump goes on the attack, von der Leyen goes into hiding’). Limited conversation around the topic focuses on the mistakes that the US is making. OK, **but what will EUROPE DO**? Chatter of ‘working with China’ rather than the US –as Macron was maybe angling for when not threatening to use Europe’s trade-bazooka on Beijing– would just ensure the US becomes openly antagonistic; and Chinese trade practices are set in place, as its trade surplus hit a new high. We were here on tariffs too, before the EU yielded.
Tellingly, the NSS plan for the Middle East – “Shift burdens, build peace” actually looks like the easier region to deal with, as does Africa’s “Look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict.” Cynics might add that reads like a future NSS Europe text.
This might all seem abstract to markets (“What does this mean for the ECB?”) but it was the ECB’s Lagarde who underlined the world which made Europe prosperous is disappearing. The one that opened up on Friday is likely to be even more transformative as: JP Morgan’s Dimon attacks Europe’s economic record; Ford’s CEO warns Europe is risking the future of its auto industry; the EU steel industry is “in disarray”; France is shielding an €18bn Russian asset pot from the EU ‘reparations loan’ push, where Germany faces a €52bn potential bill for guaranteeing it – and Japan won’t join in.
That leaves one hope for the EU to cling to: that the NSS is just aspirational shelfware. Yet if the Supreme Court rules for Trump on Humphrey’s Executor, the NSS may be backed by new US political-economy hardware and software. That’s called a fat tail risk – and it’s NOT priced in!
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
Gas Prices Drop To Lowest Level In Nearly 5 Years Across US
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 08:05 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
Gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly five years and stand at around $2.90 per gallon on average as of Monday, according to data from GasBuddy, a company that tracks gas prices.
“The national average has just slipped below $2.90 per gallon for the first time since May 2, 2021,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in a Sunday post on X.
He added that “at the current level of $2.897/gal (according to GasBuddy), the national average price of gasoline is at its lowest level in 1,680 days.”
In an analysis posted on Monday morning, GasBuddy said the average price for regular unleaded gas dropped 5 cents “over the last week,” and noted that the average price is down 17.6 cents from a month ago and is 7.3 cents lower than a year ago.
The most common gas price seen by drivers was $2.79 per gallon nationwide, a figure that GasBuddy said was down 20 cents from the previous week.
“With the national average falling further, we’re now at multi-year lows heading into Christmas,“ De Haan said in a statement on Monday accompanying the analysis.
”Barring any major disruptions, prices are likely to stay relatively low into the new year.”
Diesel prices have also dropped 5.1 cents over the past week, GasBuddy said, and now stand at $3.67 per gallon.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at around $2.95 as of Dec. 8. That’s down 5 cents from seven days ago, the association said. A year ago, the average price was roughly $3 per gallon, AAA data show.
Currently, California has the highest prices in the nation at $4.46 per gallon, followed by Hawaii at $4.43 and Washington state at $4.10, according to a map from the automotive organization. Oklahoma has the lowest at $2.36 per gallon.
The highest-ever average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was reached in mid-June 2022 when it topped $5, according to AAA’s figures.
President Donald Trump and administration officials have sought to demonstrate that their policies are working and that Americans are better off than during the previous administration.
The White House on Monday highlighted the GasBuddy report, saying it’s evidence that U.S. economic activity would soon pick up.
“It’s part of an emerging trend of strong economic news, backed up by data,” the administration said in a post on its website, referring to the gas prices report.
“In just the past week, Americans saw the national median rent fall for the fourth straight month, weekly jobless claims plummet to a three-year low, mortgage rates near their lowest level in a year, and consumer sentiment spike.”
Last week, Trump signed a measure to scrap fuel-economy requirements for gas-powered vehicles, known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, in a move that he said would reduce the cost of living for many. Administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have said the current government is dealing with inflation-related problems that were left behind by the previous administration.
“Inflation is a composite number, and I think we are on a glide path to lower inflation over the coming months,” Bessent said during a CBS News interview on Sunday.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
White House Draws Up Post-Maduro Plans As Trump Warns His “Days Are Numbered”
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 09:40 AM
In a new interview with Politico released Tuesday President Trump stated that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s “days are numbered” but still declined to say exactly what he has planned in terms of potential military action against Venezuela.
He was asked specifically whether he might order boots on the ground in Venezuela, to which Trump responded simply, “I don’t comment on that.” Trump was also pressed on how far he’s willing to go in pursuit of regime change. Trump said, “I don’t want to say that.”
“But you want to see him out?” asked Politico reporter Dasha Burns. “I wouldn’t say that one way or the other,” Trump said, while criticizing the socialist strongman’s rule. But then later he conceded that he wouldn’t rule out an American ground invasion and that’s when the commander-in-chief said of Maduro, “His days are numbered.”
But there are apparently robust plans for the ‘day after’ Maduro which have been prepared by the White House and Pentagon. These contingencies have no doubt been intensely discussed especially following the months-long major US naval build-up in the southern Caribbean.
A fresh CNN report indicates Tuesday that the “Trump administration is working on day-after plans in the event Maduro is ousted from power, according to two senior administration officials and another source familiar with the discussions.”
The sources said the plans have been “quietly drafted” and are highly classified. “They include multiple options for what US action could look like to fill the power vacuum and stabilize the country if Maduro voluntarily leaves as part of a negotiated departure or is forced into leaving after US strikes on targets inside Venezuela or other direct action, the sources said,” writes CNN.
Washington has had a recent history of facilitating regime change in supposedly ‘rogue states’ only to see once highly stable societies descend into disaster, chaos, and mass killings. Such happened everywhere from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya to most recently in Syria – where Druze, Christians, and Alawites continue to suffer at the hands of hardline Sunnis.
The Venezuela plans are being ‘closely held’ – CNN explains:
“It’s the job of the federal government to always prepare for plans A, B and C,” said a senior administration official, noting that the president would not be making the threats he’s making if he did not have a team ready with a series of options for any potential outcome.
Another source familiar with the planning said that it is “the responsibility of the US government to prepare for all scenarios around the world that may or may not unfold.” The plans are being closely held at the Homeland Security Council at the White House, the source added, which is led by Stephen Miller who has worked closely with Secretary of State and acting national security adviser Marco Rubio on the efforts related to Venezuela in recent months.
Apparently the US-supported Venezuelan opposition also factors in, and has been doing its own planning and preparations:
The opposition has been formulating “100 hour” and “100 day” plans for next steps if Maduro is ousted, and those plans have been shared with different parts of the Trump administration, a source familiar said. It is unclear how much the administration has incorporated any aspects of those plans into its thinking, the source said.
Washington has already anointed María Corina Machado and Edmundo González as the anti-Maduro oppositionists who will lead a political transition.
The US has going back to the Biden administration called Gonzalez the rightful “president-elect” of the oil-rich but corrupt country, and Trump has also described him as the true president after Maduro allegedly ‘stole’ the last election.
Maduro is recently said to have offered serious overtures to the US regarding access to the nation’s huge underground oil reserves, but has also lately rejected Trump demands for him to immediately step down and exit the country.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1654 UP 0.0002 PTS OR 2 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MOSTLY ALL RED
USA/ YEN 156.11 UP 0.024 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3346 DOWN .0000 OR 0 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3841 DOWN 0.0011 CDN DOLLAR UP 11 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.56 PTS OR 0.37%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 336.13 PTS OR 1,29%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.45%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 336.13 PTS OR 1.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14/56 POINTS OR 0.52%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.45 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 69.56 PTS OR 0.14%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4204.40
silver:$58.68
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.95 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.178 % UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.96% down 0 FULL POINTS AND 25/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.381 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.320 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.557 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8490 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1632 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.48 UP 0.532 OR YEN IS DOWN 63 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4920 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.184 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS pts to 1.3842
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0637 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0622
TURKISH LIRA: 42.59 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.964 DOWN 1/4 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.381 DOWN 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.148% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.777 DOWN 4 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.567 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4193.85
SILVER AT 10;00: 58.77
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 3.08 PTS OR 0.03%
GERMAN DAX: UP 116.64pts or 0.49%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 55.92 pts or 0.69%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 22.30pts or 0.13%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 114.08. or 0.33%
WTI Oil price 58.77 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 62.35 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 77.02 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 47/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.441 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.038 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1628 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3300 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5306 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.202 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.965 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.384 DOWN 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.32 UP 1.017 OR YEN DOWN 102 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3851 UP 0.0003 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.80
Brent OIL: 62.46
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.187
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 PTS to 4.867%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.612 UP 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.464 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.071 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.21 UP 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.58 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.36 DOWN 0 AND 82/100 roubles //
GOLD $4211.65(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 60.78 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 178.51 OR 0.37 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 30.58 PTS OR 0.13%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.93 UP 1.77 PTS OR 0/27.%
GLD: $ 387.40 UP 1.98 PTS OR 0.36%
SLV/ $55.17 UP 2.46 PTS OR OR 4.45%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 74.40 PTS OR 0.24%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Crypto & Silver Soar As Rate-Cut Odds Dip After Mixed Data
WRAP UP;
Stocks mixed and bonds flatten after JOLTS jump ahead of FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 04:18 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold up.
- REAR VIEW: JOLTS top expectations; US to allow NVDA to export H200 chips to China, the same approach will apply to AMD, INTC and others; China reportedly to limit access of NVDA’s H200 chips despite Trump approval; Trump threatens Mexico with 5% tariffs claiming a violation to the Water Treaty; Weekly ADP report returns to positive; RBA holds as expected, Governor Bullock leans hawkish; Solid US 10yr auction; JPM expects IB revenue to be up low-single digit percentages in Q4 & expects markets revenue to be up low-teens pct; Zelensky sees leader level talks with the US next week, Trump gives Zelensky “days” to respond to peace proposal.
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese CPI (Nov), PPI (Nov), Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Costs (Q3). Events: BoC/FOMC/BCB Rate Announcement. Speakers: BoE’s Bailey; ECB’s Lagarde; BoC’s Macklem; Fed’s Powell. Supply: Australia, UK. Earnings: Oracle, Adobe, Synopsys.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks chopped on Tuesday as eyes turn to the FOMC on Wednesday but the Russell outperformed while Dow Jones lagged. Dow weakness ensued after JPM’s Lake gave some Q4 guidance – IB revenue up low-single digits, and markets revenue up low teens. This hit JPM shares and also weighed on the Financial sector. Energy, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed, while Health Care, Industrials and Real Estate underperformed – Financials also closed lower. T-Notes flattened in response to the September and October JOLTS report, which saw a notable increase from August – rising to 7.67mln in October from 7.23mln in August – well above the 7.15mln forecast. This saw traders pare rate cut bets in 2026, but December pricing was little changed – participants still price an 88% probability of a 25bps rate cut tomorrow. The data also gave a helping hand for the Buck, while the Yen lagged following the 7.6 magnitude in Japan overnight. AUD outperformed after the RBA, which held rates as expected, but Governor Bullock leant hawkish. She said the outlook is for an extended pause, or hike, and does not see rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Oil prices settled lower with focus remaining on Russia/Ukraine, where Zelensky said Ukraine and Europe are ready to present a peace plan to the US. Meanwhile, Trump told Zelensky he wants Ukraine to agree to ceasefire by Christmas, and Zelensky sees leader level talks with the US next week. Gold and silver prices were bid, particularly the latter which rose above USD 60/oz to fresh record highs, from an earlier lower of 57.62. Note, there was a lot of focus on US/Sino relations – where the US is to approve NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chip exports to China, but under special security reviews, while China will reportedly limit the imports. Elsewhere, CNBC reported that China is buying US soybeans again, but falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement.
US
JOLTS: The October and September JOLTS report was released, which saw the September print jump to 7.658mln from August’s 7.227mln print, before rising further in October to 7.670mln. Meanwhile, the Vacancy rate rose to 4.6% in September from 4.3% in August, and was unchanged in October at 4.6%. The quits rate rose to 2.0% in September from 1.9% in August, but fell to 1.8% in October. The data shows an improvement in the state of the labour market from the end of summer, with JOLTS rising, which could support the case of the hawks, but Oxford Economics highlight the rise in the layoff rate could embolden calls from the doves – the layoff rate rose to 1.2% in October, from 1.1% in September and August, albeit it has been within a 1.0-1.2% range since December 2022. Oxford Economics also point out that “The difference between the number of hires and separations, a proxy for the next change in nonfarm employment at the end of October, was 99,000. This points to another healthy gain in nonfarm payrolls in October, at least in the private sector.” October NFP will be released on December 16th, alongside the November report, but there will be no October unemployment rate.
FED PREVIEW: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.50-3.75%, with Fed money markets currently pricing in an 88% chance of such an outcome, and this comes despite widening divisions among policymakers. The latest cut would follow Octoberʼs reduction, although Chair Powell cautioned then that a December cut was far from assured and gave an analogy that “driving in the fog, you could slow down”. Given the Government shutdown, key data has been delayed, and little has been seen since the prior meeting, but in the following week, we will see the October and November NFP, the November Unemployment rate, and the November CPI. Although markets are heavily pricing in a cut, it is a close call as shown by expected votes (more below), and given this, there is a widely held view that it will be a “hawkish cut”. JPM generally agrees with this view and adds that one way this could be conveyed would be for the statement to mimic last yearʼs forward guidance. Last Novemberʼs statement referenced “In considering additional adjustments…” which was followed by a cut in December, and then the Dec. statement was adjusted to say “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments…” which was followed by a pause in rates until September 2025. By reverting to the extent and timing guidance, the Committee could hint at a pause in the coming January meeting. Ahead, Rabo Bank expects the Fed to continue its cutting cycle at least until its estimate of the neutral rate is reached. To see the full Newsquawk preview, please click here.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 5 TICKS LOWER AT 112-03
T-Notes flatten on rising JOLTS ahead of FOMC as traders pare 2026 rate cut bets. At settlement, 2-year +2.5bps at 3.608%, 3-year +2.9bps at 3.644%, 5-year +2.4bps at 3.776%, 7-year +2.0bps at 3.965%, 10-year +1.0bps at 4.182%, 20-year -0.7bps at 4.778%, 30-year -1.0bps at 4.806%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI -8.3bps at 2.640%, 3-year BEI -1.5bps at 2.425%, 5-year BEI -0.9bps at 2.242%, 10-year BEI -0.3bps at 2.248%, 30-year BEI -0.1bps at 2.229%.
THE DAY: T-Notes saw notable flattening ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday, largely due to the rise in JOLTS. The release saw both September and October data released on account of the resumption of data following the government shutdown. But JOLTS rose from 7.227mln in August, to 7.67mln in October (7.658mln in Sept.). This is a clear improvement from the end of summer, and is the highest print since May’s 7.712mln. This saw T-Notes sell off, primarily led by the short-end, albeit market pricing was little changed for December, with a rate cut still priced with an 88% probability, but from now to 2026, the amount of easing priced fell by 5bps. Attention then turned to the 10-year auction, which overall was met with solid demand and put a floor in T-note prices into settlement. All eyes turn to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
SUPPLY:
Notes
- US to sell USD 22bln of 30-year bonds on Dec 11th.
- The US Treasury sold USD 39bln of 10-year notes at a high yield of 4.175%, on the screws of the when issued – an improvement from the prior 0.6bps tail, but in line with the six auction average. The bid-to-cover rose to 2.55x from 2.43x, a touch above the 2.51x average. Meanwhile, direct demand saw a slight drop to 21% from 22.6%, slightly above the 20.5% average, while indirect demand rose to 70.2% from 67%, above the 69.5% average. This left dealers with 8.8% of the auction, vs the prior 10.5% and 10.0% average. Overall, a solid 10-year auction.
Bills
- US sold USD 78bln of 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.650%, B/C 2.89x
- US to sell USD 85bln of 4-week bills (prev. 90bln) on Dec 11th.
- US to sell USD 80bln of 8-week bills on dec 11th.
- US to sell USD 69bln of 17-week bills on Dec 10th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: Dec 22bps (prev. 21.5bps), January 28.8bps (prev. 29bps), March 33.6bps (prev. 35bps), April 39.8bps
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 3.211bln (prev. 1.703bln) across 10 counterparties (prev. 6)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 0.107bln (prev. 0.000bln) across two operations.
- EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 84bln (prev. 88bln) on December 8th.
- SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.93%), volumes at USD 3.209tln (prev. 3.221tln) on December 8th
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED USD 0.63 LOWER AT 58.25/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 0.55 LOWER AT 61.94/BBL
The crude complex ended the day with losses, but benchmarks were pretty rangebound as focus remains on Ukraine/Russia ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. On the former, while there was little market moving, Zelensky said Ukraine and Europe are ready to present a peace plan to the US, and refined documents to be sent to US in “near future”. The Ukrainian President later added he sees leader-level talks with the US next week, and Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire if Russia agrees; he even added if security is guaranteed, elections could be held in the next 60-90 days. Elsewhere, the EIA STEO saw world oil demand outlook slightly lowered for 2025, but raised for production, with both unchanged for 2026. Note, Iraq sets January Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia at -USD 1.05/bbl to Oman/Dubai average. WTI traded between USD 58.12-59.17/bbl and Brent USD 61.83-62.78/bbl. Ahead, private inventory data is due after-hours, whereby current expectations are (bbls): Crude -2.3mln, Distillate +1.9mln, Gasoline +2.8mln.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.10% at 6,840, NDX +0.16% at 25,669, DJI -0.37% at 47,561, RUT +0.24% at 2,527.
SECTORS: Energy +0.69%, Consumer Staples +0.38%, Technology +0.17%, Consumer Discretionary +0.16%, Communication Services +0.12%, Utilities +0.01%, Materials -0.06%, Financials -0.39%, Real Estate -0.61%, Industrials -0.73%, Health -0.98%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.16% at 5,716, Dax 40 +0.53% at 24,172, FTSE 100 -0.03% at 9,642, CAC 40 -0.69% at 8,053, FTSE MIB +0.33% at 43,575, IBEX 35 +0.13% at 16,735, PSI -1.33% at 8,091, SMI -0.31% at 12,941, AEX +0.21% at 947.
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Alcon (ALC) to purchase STAAR (STAA) for USD 30.75/shr.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): EU opens antitrust probe into Google.
- Ares Management (ARES) will join the SPX on 11th Dec, replacing Kellanova (K), which is being acquired by Mars.
- Citi (C) CFO Mason says Q4 markets revenue expected to be down low to mid single digits Y/Y; Q4 IB fees expected to rise by mid 20s; Severance costs expected to increase in Q4.
- CVS Health (CVS) updates fiscal guidance; midpoint of FY25 EPS guide tops consensus.
- FMC Corporation (FMC) downgraded at Barclays; expects agricultural markets to see mixed results in 2026.
- Home Depot (HD) reaffirmed FY25 outlook and preliminary FY26 with sales and profit below expected.
- JPMorgan (JPM) expects IB revenue to be up low single-digit percentages in Q4 and expects markets revenue to be up low-teens pct in Q4.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Trump said the company can ship H200 AI chips in China if the US gets a 25% cut; however, the FT reports China is set to limit access to H200 chips.
- PepsiCo (PEP) reached an agreement with Elliott Investment Management to cut costs and reduce prices to revive its slowing food business.
- SpaceX reportedly pursuing 2026 IPO raising far above USD 30bln and sees valuation of c. USD 1.5tln in public offering, according to Bloomberg
- Toll Brothers (TOL): Profit light and issued FY guidance below expected.
FX
The Dollar was slightly stronger following a stronger-than-expected JOLTS reading in October. Job openings rose to 7.67mln (exp. 7.15mln) from the 7.658mln seen in September, which was part of the October report due to the government shutdown. The release sent US yields higher and as such the dollar followed, albeit a choppy trade ensued, but with the upside eventually holding. A hawkish reaction was also present in money markets, albeit modestly, as the base case still calls for a 25bps rate from the Fed on Wednesday but traders did pare rate cut bets throughout 2026. Click here for the full Newsquawk Fed preview.
AUD strengthened in response to hawkish remarks from the RBA Governor Bullock. The central bank kept the Cash Rate at 3.60% as widely expected in a unanimous decision. Thereafter, in the press conference, Bullock noted they did not consider a rate cut nor see rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Rather, she noted the outlook is for an extended pause or hikes, but she would not put a probability on it. The RBA statement noted that recent data suggest the inflation risk has tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures. AUD/USD hit highs of 0.6654 before paring to around 0.6640 at the time of writing.
JPY extended on Monday’s weakness, driven by the 7.6 earthquake striking Japan. Overnight, we heard from BoJ’s Governor Ueda, who reinforced the view that policymakers are closely watching exchange rates, noting how exchange rates will affect their inflation outlook is a “very important question for us.” Modest JPY upside followed before succumbing to later USD strength; USD/JPY now sits around 156.90.
USD/CAD was little changed as participants await the BoC rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at the terminal rate, 2.25%, while the policy outlook in money markets has u-turned to a hawkish view following the strong November jobs report on Friday, which marked three consecutive beats. Now, markets fully price in at least one 25bps hike by the end of 2026. Click here for the full Newsquawk BoC Preview.
USA DATA RELEASES
ADP Weekly Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 08:29 AM
After a dismal few months, the US labor market turned up for the four weeks ending Nov. 22, 2025, private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs a week., according to ADP’s new weekly employment data
This week’s positive number hints at an upswing in the labor market after four straight weeks of negative pulse estimates, after four straight weeks of losing jobs.
This follows the almost unprecedented decline in initial jobless claims last week (which some have argued was impacted by Thanksgiving Week irregularities).
Is this the start of the end of the Low-Fire, Low-Hire economy? It’s a little too early to tell, especially after the 120,000 collapse in small business jobs last month reported by ADP.
END
JOLTS
Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Even As Number Of Quits Plunges To 5 Year Low
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 10:38 AM
After a two month data hiatus, moments ago the BLS published the first jobs-linked report when it released the October JOLTS job openings and labor turnover survey. And following the last published JOLTS, which hit a little over two months ago on Sept 30, covering the month of August and which reported just 7.227 million job openings, the October report was unexpectedly strong, but not for what it showed for October but rather for the previously unreported September data, which came at a whopping 7.658MM, the highest since May, and the biggest one-month increase (+431K), since October 2024.
According to the BLS, there were no material monthly changes in October, expect for a notable plunge in the number of job openings in federal government (-25,000). And while that was accurate, a quick skim of the data
To be sure, as noted above, the best news about today’s report is that roughly around the time of the government shutdown the number of government job openings was already the lowest since Feb 2021, while the number of Federal job openings continues to be in freefall.
What is just as interesting is that after four years of the US labor market dodging the bullet, its luck has finally run out because whereas every month since May 2021, the labor market had been supply-constrained, with more openings than jobs in the US, in July and August we finally returned to a demand constrained baseline, with fewer job openings than unemployed workers, the first negative print this series since April 2021. That said, in October, this series reversed again, with 55K more job openings than unemployed workers. Expect this to reverse again in the coming months.
Said otherwise, in October the number of job openings to unemployed was just a fraction above 1.0x, having spent the previous two months below, which in turn was a reversal of the previous 4 years.
Why does this matter? Because as we discussed recently, the US never entered a recession in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers (i.e. the job market was supply constrained). After the previous two months, that is no longer the case.
Moving away from job openings, we find that both hires and quits dropped. Hiring slowed down in October, when 5.149 million workers were hired, down over 200K from 5.350 million in September. But this drop was modest compared to the plunge in the quits which slumped from 3.128 million to 2.941 million, the lowest since August 2020. The number of quits decreased in accommodation and food services (-136,000), health care and social assistance (-114,000), and federal government (-25,000). Curiously, quits in federal government in September saw a series high of 46,000. In October, quits increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+38,000) and in information (+21,000)
How to make sense of this data? On the surface, the JOLTS report suggests that the jobs market is much stronger than some had feared, and certainly the bottom is not falling out. It also suggests that anyone expecting an aggressive easing cycle in the immediate future will be disappointed. At the same time, the report is too close to the FOMC decision tomorrow, so it won’t change anything, and if it does impact the market, it will be odds of a January or subsequent rate cut (which will drop). At the same time, the continued collapse in both hires and quits is concerning and indicates that we can now add low quits to the “low fire, low hire” economy, which is rapidly finding a new equilibrium now that millions of illegal aliens aren’t polling the statistics, or artificially depressing wages. Neither of which makes the Fed’s role any easier…
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Rates on the MOVE – And the Market Isn’t Buying the Fed
AI
Understanding the MOVE Index Surge and Market Skepticism on Fed Policy
The ICE BofA MOVE Index—often dubbed the “VIX of bonds”—measures the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities. When it spikes, it signals heightened uncertainty about interest rates, bond prices, and broader economic stability. As of early December 2025, the MOVE has climbed sharply to around 120 (up from lows near 66 in late November), reflecting trader bets on erratic Fed moves amid sticky inflation, a softening labor market, and policy divisions. This isn’t just technical noise; it’s the market flashing a “not so fast” to the Federal Reserve’s narrative of a tidy “soft landing” with gradual rate cuts. Let’s break it down.Why the MOVE is “Heating Up” Now
- Recent Triggers: The index jumped after the November ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 48.2 (below expectations of 49), underscoring contraction in new orders (47.4) and employment (44.0). This, paired with September’s core PCE inflation at 2.8%—still well above the Fed’s 2% target—has bonds traders bracing for volatility. Layoff announcements hit 1.17 million through November, the highest since the pandemic, amplifying fears of a jobs slowdown without disinflation.
- Historical Context: MOVE readings above 100-120 often precede Fed pivots or recessions (e.g., 2022’s spike to 200+ amid hikes). The current leg up mirrors late-2023 unease, but with a twist: markets are pricing in cuts while doubting their depth.
- Bond Market Mechanics: Higher MOVE means pricier options on Treasuries, as investors hedge against yield swings. The 10-year Treasury yield has yo-yoed near 4.2%, with real yields ticking up at short ends due to falling inflation compensation (oil prices down, but tariffs loom).
In short, rates aren’t “stable”—they’re jittery, and the MOVE is the canary in the coal mine.The Fed’s Story vs. What the Market “Isn’t Buying”Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC have leaned dovish, delivering back-to-back 25bp cuts in September and October (bringing the funds rate to 3.75%-4%). Their dot plot from September projected two more cuts in 2025, targeting ~3.75% by year-end, with a pause at ~4% into 2026. Powell’s October remarks emphasized data-dependence: “A December cut isn’t a foregone conclusion,” citing resilient jobs data (pre-shutdown delays). Yet, hawks like NY Fed’s John Williams push caution on inflation, while doves eye labor cracks.Markets? They’re calling bluff:
- Futures Pricing (CME FedWatch): An 88% chance of a 25bp cut at the December 9-10 meeting, but only ~50bp total for all of 2026—half the Fed’s implied path. This divergence screams skepticism: Traders expect the cut but fear a hawkish dot plot or Powell presser signaling fewer future easings.
- Yield Curve Signals: The curve is steepening (2s-10s spread widening), betting on short-term cuts but longer-term restraint. Equity vol (VIX ~25) and high-yield spreads echo this—risk assets rally on cut hopes but sell off on “higher for longer” vibes.
- Sentiment Echoes: Households see 1-year inflation at 4.1% (down slightly but sticky), eroding trust in the “inflation is tamed” line. On X, traders note the MOVE’s “dark cross” (short-term vol crossing above long-term) is just 4.2 points away, potentially accelerating a bond rally if it breaks.
The market’s thesis: The Fed wants to normalize without recession, but data (e.g., delayed November CPI/PCE due to shutdown) suggests a bumpier road. Tariffs under a potential Trump admin could reignite inflation, forcing the Fed to “cut and hike” unpredictably—hence the vol premium.Key Data Snapshot: Fed Path vs. Market Expectations
| Metric | Fed Dot Plot (Sep 2025) | Market-Implied (Dec 5, 2025) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 Rate | 3.50%-3.75% (25bp cut) | 3.50%-3.75% (88% prob.) | Consensus on immediate cut, but… |
| End-2025 Rate | 3.75%-4.00% | ~3.50% (2 cuts total) | Market more aggressive short-term |
| End-2026 Rate | ~4.00% (50bp cuts in ’26) | ~3.25% (but slowing pace) | Doubt on sustained easing; hawks win out? |
| Core PCE Inflation | 2.8% (end-2025) | 2.9% (stubborn) | Above-target pressures limit cuts |
| MOVE Index | N/A | 120 (up 80% MoM) | Vol surge = policy uncertainty |
Sources: CME FedWatch, FOMC Minutes (Oct), ISM, BLS (Sep data).Implications for Markets and You
- Bonds/ Rates: Expect choppy yields—short end falls on cuts, long end rises on inflation fears. If MOVE hits 140+, it could trigger a “dash for cash” like March 2020.
- Equities: S&P 500’s 16% “house view” upside feels frothy; AI/tech masks rot in cyclicals. A hawkish Fed surprise could pop the rally.
- Crypto/Risk Assets: BTC testing $85k support amid liquidity hopes, but altseason waits for ISM >55 (currently contracting). Gold/silver at $4,200/$57 scream “hedge mode.”
- Investor Playbook: Ladder short-duration bonds for yield without vol pain. Watch Powell’s Dec 10 presser—any “data-dependent” hedging could spike MOVE further. If cuts fizzle, pivot to constraints like uranium/copper.
Bottom line: The market’s pricing a Fed that’s dovish in word but hawkish in deed. Rates on the MOVE? Absolutely—and until data aligns narratives, expect more twists. If you’re positioned for endless easing, this is your wake-up.
END
Trump Threatens Tariff Increase On Mexico Over Rio Grande Water Dispute
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 02:20 PM
President Donald Trump weighed in on a decades-old border water dispute on Monday, saying he would impose a 5 percent tariff hike on Mexican imports if the country fails to swiftly deliver the water it owes from the Rio Grande.
The ultimatum is designed to help struggling U.S. farmers, especially in Texas, amid alleged treaty violations over the past five years.
In a post on social media, Trump underscored an alleged 800,000 acre-feet debt from the recently ended cycle, demanding the release of 200,000 acre-feet before Dec. 31 and additional volumes shortly after.
The president highlighted the impact on Texas agriculture, where insufficient water undermines crop yields and livestock sustainability.
“As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water,” Trump said on Truth Social on Monday.
“That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY.”
As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, Mexico has in the past cited significant drought conditions curtailing its capacity.
The 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty regulates shared resources from the Rio Grande, Colorado, and Tijuana rivers.
For the Rio Grande segment south of Fort Quitman, Texas, the agreement states that the United States would receive one-third of flows from six Mexican tributaries—Conchos, San Diego, San Rodrigo, Escondido, Salado, and Las Vacas Arroyo—with a guaranteed minimum average of 350,000 acre-feet per year, or 1.75 million over each five-year cycle. The agreement allotted Mexico two-thirds of those flows, as well as allocations from U.S. tributaries, including the Pecos and Devils rivers.
In April, Trump criticized Mexico, threatening tariffs or sanctions if the country failed to adhere to the terms of the treaty.
“Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas farmers,” he posted at the time, pledging to “keep escalating consequences, including tariffs and, maybe even sanctions, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and gives Texas the water they are owed!”
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted the ongoing drought but vowed to help resolve the issue. Mexico said it would draw from its reserves and increase flows from the six tributaries through October, as announced by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. IBWC data, however, showed deliveries came in at approximately 730,000 acre-feet by mid-2025, 42 percent short of the 1.75 million obligation.
A history of lenient enforcement, hydrological changes, and rapid population increase in Mexico has been blamed for the current conditions.
Evan Ellis, a Latin American studies professor at the U.S. Army War College, said the current situation can be attributed to “years of looking the other way” by the United States.
The treaty allows for deferrals only during “extraordinary drought,” which is left undefined but requires repayment in the following cycle.
In March, the United States rejected Mexico’s request for Colorado River water diversions to Tijuana, noting Rio Grande shortfalls. It is the first time the country has denied such a request under the treaty.
The Texas agricultural sector depends on consistent water supplies, and the allocation shortfalls have led members of Congress to introduce bills proposing fund withholdings until remedies are secured.
KING NEWS
| The King Report December 9, 2025 Issue 7635 | Independent View of the News |
| China Adopts Crisis-Era Language as Leaders Signal More Forceful Stimulus The 24-man Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, pledged Monday to implement more proactive fiscal policy and to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy next year—the first introduction of such language since 2008… The Politburo also vowed to be more active in responding to economic downturns, to boost domestic demand and to stabilize the housing market… China’s statistics bureau released inflation data that pointed to persistently weak domestic demand in November, despite Beijing’s push to revive spending as the yearslong property downturn drags on… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-signals-more-forceful-stimulus-to-come-next-year/ar-AA1vw8g0 China Politburo Vows More Proactive, Effective Macro Policy China’s Politburo convened a meeting chaired by Xi Jinping, stating that the economy remains “generally stable.” The meeting pledged to introduce “cross-cyclical” policy adjustments, signaling a focus on longer-term economic planning beyond short-term growth fluctuations. It marked the first time since December 2023 that this language appeared in a Politburo readout. Preventing and resolving risks in key areas — typically involving local government debt, the property sector, and financial vulnerabilities — was moved to the bottom of the eight major priorities for 2026… https://mktnews.com/newsDetail.html?id=1001527 China’s Politburo pledges action to tackle trade ‘struggles’ in 2026 https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3335563/chinas-politburo-says-more-proactive-fiscal-policy-come-2026 @zerohedge: Morgan Stanley downgrades TSLA to Equal Weight as analyst Andrew Percoco takes over coverage from Adam Jonas (who moved to a different internal role): “Assuming coverage at Equal-weight (from Overweight previously). Increasing price target to $425 (from $410).” https://t.co/m2BFyrNcSB BLS Will Not October Producer Price Index – BBG 11:10 ET BLS plans to publish October data with the November 2025 PPI news release on January 14, 2026… ESZs opened +8.00 (6868.25) on Sunday night due to the usual buying for the Monday Rally. However, they quickly fell into an A-B-C droop to 6872.75 (-5.50) at 19:10 ET. Buying for the expected Monday then drove ESZs to 6893.75 (daily high) at 2:28 ET. After a 5-wave decline to 6880.75 at 7 ET, the US repo market opening rally appeared. ESZs ran to 6893.25 at 8:31 ET. Alas, an A-B top (B slightly lower than A price) appeared. ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 6848.50 at 10:58 ET. After a rebound to 6860.75 at 11:26 ET on the manipulation for the European close, ESZs slid to a new daily low of 6841.25 at 12:26 ET. A Noon Balloon took ESZs to 6083.50 at 13:00 ET. ESZs then fell to a new daily low of 6835.25 at 1:58 ET. ESZs labored to 6848.00 at 14:54 ET. After a modest retreat, ESZs traded in a 7-handle range from, 14:55 ET until the late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6857.75 at 15:59 ET. USZs declined as much as 24/32. They rallied 11 ticks after a solid 3-year auction ($58B): 3.61% vs. 2622% WI. The Treasury will auction $39B of 10s today and $22B of 30s on Thursday. Positive aspects of previous session A solid -year auction halted the decline in bonds and notes. Negative aspects of previous session USZs declined as much as 24/32; stocks and most commodities declined smartly. The US 10-year hit a yield of 4.17%, the highest since 4.176% on Sept. 26. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why did most everything declined on Monday? Does someone know what the Fed will say? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6850.60 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6878.27; 6827.19 WSJ: China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion, Underscoring Its Export Dominance Milestone boosts Chinese economy even as it fuels global trade tensions… For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. That brought the country’s trade surplus this year to $1.08 trillion, China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday… https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/chinas-exports-rebound-in-november-97f24e06 WSJ: Trump Pardons Stadium Developer Charged in Texas Arena Bid-Rigging Case Timothy Leiweke was indicted over allegations that he persuaded rival firm not to compete on a project @julie_kelly2: So a Trump-hating CEO who tweeted ‘’God bless the grand jurors who indicted Donald Trump’’ gets pardoned after Trey Gowdy (who defended MAL raid) lobbied the president on his behalf in a case brought by Trump’s DOJ including Omeed Assefi, a longtime Trump loyalist at antitrust division. Not a fan of this one. Trump announced that he told Xi that the US would allow Nvidia to ship its H200 products to China. If you shmooze Trump enough, he will do what you want! Trump claims the US will receive 25% of revenue generated from sales of Nvidia H200 chips to China. The Fed uses the US 10-year/3month yield curve to forecast economic growth and recession. It also predicts inflation. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growth The US 10-year to 3-month yield is breaking out to the upside. CPI y/y is likely to follow. Today – There was no Monday Rally and no rally to start Fed Week. Though this is disconcerting and a possible warning, the usual suspects will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and the ‘Fed Drift’ higher for Fed Day. IF stocks are sluggish today, it would strongly suggest that a critical mass of operators know or are concerned that the Fed won’t cut rates tomorrow – or the Fed will signal no more rate cuts for the foreseeable future if it does cut rates. Expected economic data: Nov NFIB Small Biz Optimism 98,3; Oct JOLTS Job Openings 7.15m; 2-day FOMC Meeting begins. ESZs are 11.00; NQZs are +260.75; Dec AU is +8.10; and USZs are +7/32 at 20:15 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6748; 100-day MA: 6604; 150-day MA: 6408; 200-day MA: 6200 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,931; 100-day MA: 46,038; 150-day MA: 44,986; 200-day MA: 44,050 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6846.51 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6712.21 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6856.87 triggers a sell signal Mystery deepens as to why it took FBI nearly 5 years to finally bust the suspected J6 pipe bomber But by the end of February 2021, according to Loudermilk and Massie’s report, the bureau actively began diverting resources away from the pipe bomb investigation. At the same time, Wray and Abbate were ramping up resources to track down and aggressively prosecute trespassing J6 grandmothers. Demonizing Trump and his supporters and extracting every morsel of political capital out of J6 was the priority of Joe Biden and his congressional hatchet woman Nancy Pelosi. Wray, the consummate political animal who wanted to stay on as FBI director, tailored his response to suit. Nothing would be permitted to interrupt the false narrative that J6 was an “insurrection” worse than 9/11 committed by “Ultra-MAGA,” “white supremacist domestic terrorists” who “killed four cops.” None of that was true, of course… https://nypost.com/2025/12/07/opinion/mystery-deepens-as-to-why-it-took-fbi-over-5-years-to-finally-bust-the-suspected-j6-pipe-bomber/ NYC mayor-elect tells residents how to resist ICE agents knocking at their door in new video https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nyc-mayor-elect-tells-residents-how-resist-ice-agents-knocking-door-new-video @libsoftiktok: NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani has chosen to appoint Mysonne Linen, a convicted armed robber, to be on his City Hall transition team. You cannot make this up. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1998187351026348280 @joeroganhq: Bill Maher on Zohran Mamdani: “He definitely has the power and influence to elect JD Vance, or whoever is the Republican candidate next time. It is a walking commercial for the Republican Party nationally.” https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1998085163478385099 British judge sentences former pro soccer player for mean words about female sports commentators https://notthebee.com/article/british-judge-sentences-former-soccer-star-to-6-months-in-prison-for-mean-tweets World War I, World War II, and the Cold War were fought for BS like this? @FischerKing64: We built the Golden Gate Bridge in about four years during the Great Depression. It was built under budget, ahead of schedule, without AI or computer modeling. Meanwhile the Francis Scott Key bridge that collapsed in Baltimore in 2024 isn’t set to be rebuilt till 2030 at least. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Has he gone mad?
NJ Governor Murphy Using Last Months In Office To Free 31 Convicted Killers…And Promises Even More
Monday, Dec 08, 2025 – 06:00 PM
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is using his last months in office to release dozens of inmates convicted of homicide — and says many more are coming, according to NJ 101.5.
Since December 2024, Murphy has granted clemency to 283 offenders, including 31 people convicted of murder, felony murder, or aggravated manslaughter, according to NJ 101.5. Some had been serving life sentences or faced decades before being eligible for parole. All will now walk free with five years of supervision.
The governor fast-tracked the releases after creating a new Clemency Advisory Board. In November alone, he freed 23 convicted killers. Murphy has defended the move by highlighting a few cases involving women he says were victims of abuse and “received excessive sentences.”
NJ 101.5 reported that many of the other newly freed inmates were convicted of brutal crimes unrelated to domestic violence. For example:
- Sammy Moore received life with 40 years before parole for murder, attempted murder and armed robbery.
- Anthony Leahey was convicted of three murders in a fatal stabbing case.
- Lamar Alford was sentenced to at least 63 years for shooting a drug dealer over money.
- Jamal Muhammad helped plan multiple shootings and was convicted of felony murder.
All are now out early due to Murphy’s clemency.
Advocacy groups tied to the governor’s decisions are applauding the releases. Several of the offenders were clients of the ACLU of New Jersey, whose executive director Amol Sinha called Murphy’s actions “historic” and praised “the power of compassion.” The relationship with advocacy groups has raised questions about who has access to the governor’s clemency pipeline — and who does not.
Families of victims and public-safety critics argue the state is freeing violent offenders without transparency, uniform standards, or a public safety review process. Murphy has not responded to broader concerns about risk to communities or why dozens of homicide offenders — not just a handful — were chosen.
Even so, the outgoing governor has made clear he’s not done. He says more pardons and sentence commutations will be issued before he leaves office on Jan. 20, 2026 — meaning additional convicted killers could soon walk free with no legislative oversight and little public input.
GREG HUNTER..
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
