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XGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2025 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 60.169000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/09/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 12/11/2025
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/09/2025 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/09/2025
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:14:14
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 12
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 15
132 C SG AMERICAS 372
167 H MAREX 3
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 5
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 3
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 87
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 240
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 16
905 C ADM 20 10
TOTAL: 393 393
MONTH TO DATE: 10,84
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 0/2
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 2 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 200 OZ or 0.00620 TONNES
total notices so far: 27,577 contracts for 2,757,700 OR 85.776 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 393 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.965 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 10,841 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 54.205 million oz
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.755 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 57.155 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 22.685 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 0.755 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP // STANDING ADVANCES TO 57.155 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.6687 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 5.1432 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.7122 TONNES/
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 88.172 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 49.922 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 4254 CONTRACTS OI TO 154,762 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1365 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1365 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4011 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1365 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5,619 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $2.43 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 26.880 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.43
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN MARKETS THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING:
ASIA RESULTS; WEDNESDAY DEC 10
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.03 POINTS OR 0.23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 106.55 PTS OR 0.62%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 59.60 PTS OR 0.12% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.19%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0638
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0628/ Oil DOWN TO 58.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 61.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0638 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0622:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5144 CONTRACTS TO 432,569 OI WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (852). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY (WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED ON NOV 30). .. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT STRONGLY TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE .
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI HAS STILL A VERY LOW AT 432,569 AND THESE GUYS ARE VERY STICKY AND ITS OI IS A LITTLE HIGHER THIS WEEK SO AGAIN THEY PROVIDE A LITTLE FODDER FOR OUR CROOKS TO RAID WHICH WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 6000 CONTRACTS (OR 18.66 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD.
FIRST LETS DO A REVIEW OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES THIS PAST YEAR
A LITTLE HISTORY ON OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES/ GOLD PRIOR MONTHS
HERE IS A CLOSER LOOK AT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THESE PAST 4 MONTHS;TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK LAST 6 MONTHS 70.097 TONNES. THE RECIPIENT OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THIS CENTRAL BANK LOANED OUT ITS GOLD AND WANTS IT BACK. THEIR TOTAL RESERVES PRIOR TO THE LOANS IS LISTED AT 310 TONNES.
LET US LOOK AT JULY:
SUMMARY: EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN JULY/2025: 2 ISSUANCES//3.75 TONNES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,JULY 23, MUCH TO MY SHOCK, AFTER A TWO MONTH HIATUS,THE CME ANNOUNCED A 500 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES. THEN JULY 30 THE CME ANNOUNCED (ISSUED) MUCH TO MY HORROR ITS SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ (2.195 TONNES) AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS NOT SATISFIED AND NEEDS MORE GOLD TO COVER ITS LEASES TO BULLION BANKS. ( IT WAS NOT THE FRBNY WHO ALSO OWES GOLD TO THE BIS AND THEY NEED TO COVER BADLY AS YOU WILL SEE).THE TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS RECORDED AT 3.750 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERY TO GIVE US OUR FINAL TOTALS FOR JULY!
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
AUGUST:
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN AUGUST; 7 ISSUANCES//44.696 TONNES
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES). EARLY IN THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
NOW LET US LOOK AT SEPT.
SEPT:
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES SO FAR TOTALLING 7,370 CONTRACTS OR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES.
THESE ISSUANCES WILL OF COURSE BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR TOTAL SEPT STANDING FOR GOLD.
AND NOW OCTOBER: 6 ISSUANCES//FOR 14.553 TONNES
WE RECEIVED NOTICE THAT OUR INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WAS FOR 500 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ /1.555 TONNES OF GOLD!!THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUED THURSDAY OCT 2 FOR 2.0217 TONNES AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED THE NEXT DAY BY ANOTHER HUGE 1320 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 13,200 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY’S OCT 4: 180 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5596 TONNES:THIS BRINGS US TO OCT 8 WITH A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES. NOW AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS, OCT 21: 1029 CONTRACTS FOR 10290 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES TOTAL ISSUANCES 6 OCCASIONS FOR 4679 CONTRACTS OR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES
LET’S SUM UP EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE LAST 11 MONTHS
HISTORY: LAST 11 MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL CONTRACT ISSUANCES //TONNES OF GOLD
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN APRIL:
WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
IN MAY:
MAY: 3 EX. FOR RISK ISSUED SO FAR FOR 3025 CONTRACTS OR 302,500 OZ OR 9.4054 TONNES. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US TOTAL STANDING FOR MAY!THIS IS THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RISK IS 9.4054 TONNES FOR THE 3 ISSUANCE!
IN JUNE
JUNE: ZERO ISSUED
jULY: 2 OCCASIONS LATE IN JULY: 1206 CONTRACTS FOR 120,600 OZ OR 3.750 TONNES/ISSUED JULY 23/2025 AND JULY 30/2025
AUGUST: 7 ISSUANCES FOR A MONTHLY MONSTER 14,370 CONTRACTS OR 1,437,000 OZ ( 44.696) TONNES).AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THE CME ISSUED THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER MONTHLY RECORDED ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2226 CONTRACTS THUS BECOMING THE 4TH HIGHEST EVER RECORDED BY THE CME, SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS DAY’S ISSUANCE OF 2924 CONTRACTS. THE HUGE NUMBERS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK SUGGEST THAT A MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IS DEMANDING ITS GOLD BACK.
SEPTEMBER: SEVEN ISSUANCES FOR 7370 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 737,000 OZ OR 22.923 TONNES OF GOLD!!
OCTOBER: FIRST INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS OR 65000 OZ OR 2.0217 TONNES. THEN ON OCT 3 WE RECEIVED OUR 3RD NOTICE FOR A HUGE 1320 CONTRACTS OR 132000 OZ OR 4.1057, AND THEN SATURDAY OCT 4, THE CME ISSUED ITS 4 ISSUANCE FOR 180 CONTRACTS FOR 18,000 OZ OR .5594 TONNES. THEN OCT 8 FOR 1000 CONTRACTS, OR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES AND FINALLY OCT 21; 3.200 TONNES// THUS ON 6 OCCASIONS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE; 14.553 TONNES
NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER: TWO ISSUANCES:
WHICH NOW BRINGS US TO NOVEMBER WHERE WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND ISSUANCE OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101,600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES. WE MUST NOW ADD THIS TO OUR INITIAL ISSUANCE OF 450 NOTICES //45000 OZ OR 1.3996 TONNES. THUS THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR NOVEMBER IS 1,466 NOTICES FOR 146,600 OZ OR 4.5598 TONNES OF GOLD.
AND NOW DECEMBER: SO FAR 0 NOTICES ISSUED:
DEC 0
AS I EXPLAINED ABOVE,:THE RECIPIENT OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND
here are the only possible candidates who must bring back loaned gold
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO CONTINUES TO LEASE OUT MUCH ITS GOLD TO BULLION BANKS AND :(EX FOR RISK 10 MONTH TOTALS 134.8646 TONNES)//TOTAL RESERVES OF BOE EQUALS 310 TONNES) NO WONDER THE BANK OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE E.E.A. CANNOT SIGN OFF ON THEIR AUDIT
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED/BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS).THE FED STILL REFUSES TO BRING BACK MUCH OF ITS 39 TONNES SHORTFALL. IT BOUGHT BACK ONLY 4 TONNES IN AUGUST AND THEN ADDED 24 TONNES IN SEPT AND FINALLY LAST MONTH COVERED 15 TONNES TO CREATE A SHORTFALL OF 39 TONNES.
HOWEVER, IN OUR CASE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK RECIPIENT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED. THE BUYER, REPRESENTING THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 12TH MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THIS YEAR !!…..(DEC 24 THROUGH DEC 25//ONLY MISSING JUNE. TOTAL 12 MONTHS ISSUANCE 134.8646 TONNES)……… THE FACT THAT A CENTRAL BANK TAKES THE RISK OF A DELIVERY IS TOTALLY INSANE. THE VERY FIRST ISSUE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CAME IN MAY 2023. HUGE ISSUANCES BEGAN OCT AND DEC 2024. ROBERT LAMBOURNE, GATA CONSULTANT AND EXPERT ON BIS AND BANK OF ENGLAND ISSUES HAS WRITTEN TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND AUTHORITIES CONCERNING THE REFUSAL OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S E.E.A. AUDITORS TO SUPPLY A POSITIVE AUDIT ON THEIR GOLD TONNAGE AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A. .AND NOW THE OCC HAS WRITTEN NEW RULES ON BORROWED GOLD AND THE HANDLING OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCES AS TO NOT BREAK ANY LAWS!!! STRANGE: THEY HAVE BEEN BREAKING LAWS FOR 5 YEARS NOW.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6000 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 3.9% LATELY AS GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. THE FORCE MAJEURE AT GRASBERG IS CERTAINLY HAVING AN EFFECT ON LEASE RATES IN LONDON WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/SILVER. GRASBERG WILL NOT BE READY TO RESUME NORMAL PRODUCTION UNTIL JULY 2026
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 4,208 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK AND CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THUS A FORTHCOMING RAIDS DURING THIS WEEK.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 2.817 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.6687 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 5.1432 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.7122 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 39 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 2777 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 2777 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /FEB 2777 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2777 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 39 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS HAVE NOW FINISHED
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED 3,781 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP TUESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..ENOUGH FODDER FOR A RAID//
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S .6687 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 5.1432 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.7122 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $18.50/ /)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY WITH THE PRICE GAIN// COMEX TRADING//.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN STOIC//THEY REFUSED TO BE RINSED AS EXPLAINED BY THE OI ON COMEX RISING. OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!! THIS WEEK,
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/ WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING WEEKS TO DELIVER
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 215 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 21,500 OZ OR 0.6687 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 5.1432 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 88.7122 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.50
WE HAD A SMALL 464 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL. ALL TIME RECORD REMOVAL
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
DEC 10
DEC CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 entries i) out of Asahi 61,0539.579 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 3972.358 oz iii) Out of Malca: 52,759.791 oz (1691 kilobars) total withdrawal 117,791.778 oz (3.66 tonnes) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER i) ONE ENTRIES i) into Loomis: 3972.358 oz total deposit; 3972.358 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2 notice(s) 200 OZ 0.00622 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 944 contracts 94400 OZ 2.9.36 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 27,577 notices 2,757,700 0z 85.776 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
i) entry
i) ONE ENTRIES
i) into Loomis: 3972.358 oz
total deposit; 3972.358 oz
customer withdrawals:
0
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 2 customer to dealer
a) Brinks: 286,947.675 oz (8.9 tonnes) oz
b) JPMorgan: 10,127.565 oz
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 946 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 209 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 424 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 215 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 21,500 OZ OR 0.6687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TO OUR PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS .THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES HUGELY TO 88.7122 TONNES
JANUARY GAINED 38 CONTRACTS UP TO 2756
FEB GAINED 1832 CONTRACTS UP TO 321,283 CONTRACTS
We had 2 contracts filed for today representing 200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 134 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,577 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 946 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,852,100 OZ OR 88.7122 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (27,577 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (946 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2)x 100 oz) which equals 2,852,100 OR 88.7122 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 88.7122 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 88.7122 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER
volume TUESDAY confirmed 202,899 contracts fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,010,707.549 oz 62.54 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,109,619.090 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 18,802,267.138or 584.83 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,307,351.952 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 16,791.560oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
522.288 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
DEC 10 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into HSBC: 593,404.600 oz total deposit 593,404.600 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 393 CONTRACT(S) ( 1.965 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 590 contracts (2.950 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 10,841 Contracts (54.205 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
please note: lack of any silver coming in or leaving the comex
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 entries
1 entries
i) Into HSBC: 593,404.600 oz
total deposit 593,404.600 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
ZERO ENTRIES
adjustments: 2// both dealer to customer
a) Brinks 5021.400 oz
b) CNT 164,144.000 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 136.741MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 456.415Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 983 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 38 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 189 CONTRACTS FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 151 CONTRACTS OR 0.755 MILLION OZ
JANUARY GAINED 69 CONTRACTS UP TO 4029 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 82 CONTRACTS UP TO 1386 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 393 or 1.965 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 128,749 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,841 X5,000 oz = 54.205 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (983) AND the number of notices served upon today (393 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (10,841) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(983) minus number of notices served upon today (393)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 57.155 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 57.155 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 136.741. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 196.188/456.415million. 43.64%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.97 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $18.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.11 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.58 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
NOV 3 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039,20 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.35 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $15.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.05 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $18.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $38.10 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.92 TONNES
OCT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $115.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.93 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./// . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.37TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1047.97 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.13/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.72 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.548 MILLION OZ //
DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP $2.41/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.179 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.828 MILLION OZ //
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.497 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.007 MILLION OZ //
DEC 5/WITH SILVER UP 0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.448 MILLION OZ //
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.82 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
NOV 3 WITH SILVER $0.12 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ///A WITHDRAWAL OF 636,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.363 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.218 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.999 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.217 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.588 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.758 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.541 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.346 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 513.548 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
Alasdair Macleod…
Silver madness
The silver-bug community rejoices over silver’s performance. But do they really understand why the silver price is rising? We look at the bigger picture.
| Alasdair MacleodDec 10∙Paid |
Silver’s remarkable performance is now beginning to be reported in the mainstream business press. As usual, these articles are clueless. Today’s Daily Telegraph noted that silver topped $60 for the first time, attributing it to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates today, though it did mention tight markets and surging Indian demand as supplemental factors.
Almost no one thinks that the trouble is in the dollar and its cohort of fiat currencies. Not even market participants. Almost all the commentary is wide of the mark. But why is it that silver is on a tear? This article explains the background.
Any technical analyst will recognise that silver appears to be in an unstoppable bull market, and while it looks set to go further given its momentum, they say that the danger of a significant correction is high, at least to $50 where the 55-day moving average resides. Meanwhile, long-term fans of silver with little other than technical analysis to guide them feel vindicated and delighted.
In the investor universe, silver bugs are in a tiny minority. Not even professional investors such as hedge funds have bought into silver’s rerating as the relationship between price and Comex open interest indicates.
Until mid-July, there was some speculative trading, illustrated by the swings in open interest. During that time, silver rose relatively gently from $30 to $37. Following mid-July, open interest began to decline, while the price began its steep rise, as the arrows show. This confirms that speculator or investment interest diminished as the price rose, indicating that something else was happening.
The obvious answer is that the shorts have been progressively squeezed due to lack of the physical liquidity upon which derivatives are based. But any competent momentum trader would have spotted this and intensified the squeeze on the shorts, which has not happened.
Instead, Comex has been operating as the largest single silver source for those taking ownership of the underlying metal, to the tune of 14,460 tonnes this year to date. We don’t know who they are, but there is likely to be a large element of industrial users seeking to maintain silver stocks by taking delivery on futures expiry.
It would appear that industrial demand is likely to continue, with India becoming a voracious buyer. Her manufacturing economy is growing strongly and appears to be in a similar dynamic phase to that of China 30 years ago. Government policy has been to offset coal-powered electricity generation by subsidising solar panel (PV) manufacturing. India has an objective to be carbon neutral by 2035. Reliance Industries Limited is building a 5,000-acre solar farm, manufacturing the panels itself. And it’s not alone.
China has been the world’s silver exporter, making up supply shortfalls to suppress the price. Clearly, there has been a change in policy, leading to silver soaring to new levels. From January, the screw on global silver supplies will tighten further with China introducing a new licencing regime designed to preserve silver stocks in the domestic market.
Derivative markets have been caught napping. Demand for silver’s monetary qualities is very restricted in London and New York, though anecdotal evidence is that there is public demand for coin and small bars in the East. It is primarily a base metal squeeze, such as we see from time to time in industrial commodities. In fact, base metals are at the cheapest real levels ever seen, which is bound to correct. Since 1950, in dollars an index of them has increased tenfold, while in gold it has declined to the lowest levels ever:
Silver is not in the basket, but it is priced as a base metal. The basket is valued at only 15% of its 1950 value priced in gold which is real, legal money whose purchasing power proves to remain relatively constant over time. The bellwether of base metals, copper confirms:
The collapse in real prices for base metals followed the great financial crisis, much of it undoubtedly due to the gold/dollar exchange rate rising, while values in dollars barely changed on balance. This way of looking at commodity values is controversial, because it challenges neo-Keynesian based macroeconomics head-on. But it assumes that the history of prices in gold still applies, despite 54-years of a fiat dollar regime.
Classical economics tells us that we are correct in taking this view, and that the end of the fiat currency system is approaching. No fiat currency system has survived in the past and it is ignorant of the facts to assume today is different. Therefore, we should expect a radical price change for base metals generally, rising significantly in 2026 as the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline.
Gold telegraphed these developments by front-running them. The big shift in base metals’ prices is just starting. Copper is up over 25% in dollars this year so far. By more than doubling, as a base metal silver is leading the way. When monetary demand kicks in with a rising gold price and declining dollar, who knows what the limit will be.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
252: P Radomski (a silver guy)
5. COMMODITY REPORT/PHYSICAL //RARE EARTHS
USA Rare Earth Shares Volatile After Accelerating Timeline For Commercial Production By Two Years
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 09:30 AM
USA Rare Earth shares were up more than 3% heading into the cash open on news that the company is accelerating commercialization of its Round Top rare earth project in Texas, a move that could bring U.S. production online years ahead of most competing efforts.
The cash open prompted selling pressure which dragged USAR down 3%
USAR now expects commercial production at Round Top in late 2028—two years ahead of its prior schedule. The deposit is regarded as the richest known U.S. source of heavy rare earth elements, as well as gallium and beryllium. These materials are vital for defense technologies, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, aerospace components, and advanced electronics, positioning Round Top as the foundation of USAR’s fully integrated “mine-to-magnet” supply chain.
That supply chain also includes:
- a 310,000 sq. ft. magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, expected to become the largest metal-and-alloy-making and strip-casting facility outside China, and
- a processing and separation laboratory in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, supporting domestic mineral refinement and separation.
CEO Barbara Humpton said the accelerated production schedule reflects the company’s growing technical edge and its commitment to strengthen U.S. supply chains amid rising global demand for permanent magnets and heightened geopolitical risk. She called the new timeline an “exciting milestone” made possible by the team’s process engineering, scientific capabilities, and operational ingenuity.
The revised schedule stems from strong solvent-extraction piloting. USAR plans to launch its Hydromet demonstration facility in Colorado in early 2026, where five extraction circuits will run continuously for 2,000–4,000 hours to generate final commercial design data. These circuits will isolate high-value heavy rare earths—especially dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb), essential for high-strength magnets—while also producing other strategic minerals such as hafnium and zirconium.
This parallel-processing approach is projected to save tens of millions of dollars and enable completion of a definitive feasibility study by early 2027. With those milestones accelerated, USAR anticipates entering commercial production in 2028, creating earlier cash flow opportunities while bolstering a secure domestic supply chain.
The news also intersects with rising political emphasis on reshoring strategic minerals. During the Trump administration, rare earth supply security became a national priority amid escalating trade tensions with China, which dominates global processing. Trump issued executive actions directing agencies to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign minerals, opened pathways for funding domestic mining projects, and prioritized rare earths in defense procurement. Continued focus on critical mineral independence in a second Trump term will likely further support companies like USAR as they work to build a fully domestic mine-to-magnet ecosystem.
END
ASIA RESULTS; WEDNESDAY DEC 10
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.03 POINTS OR 0.23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 106.55 PTS OR 0.62%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 59.60 PTS OR 0.12% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.19%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0638
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0628/ Oil DOWN TO 58.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 61.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0638 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 7.0622:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0638
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0622
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 106.55 PTS OR 0.62%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 59.60 PTS OR 0.12%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.16 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1636 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.958 // DOWN 1/2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.77…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.400 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.8780/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.596 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.347
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.535
3j Gold at $4192.60 Silver at: 60.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 27/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.77 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.959% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.3400 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8052 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9370 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.208 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.824 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.625 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.60 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5460 UP 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.234 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.472 UP 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.074 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat With Fed Rate Cut, Oracle Earnings On Deck
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 08:42 AM
US equity futures are flat ahead of a Fed meeting where a rate cut is assured (the only question is whether it will be hawkish or dovish) and Oracle results later. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures are unchanged, with Mag 7 stocks mixed in premarket trading (TSLA +0.5%, META -0.5%, AAPL -0.3%, NVDA -0.2%). Bond yields are mostly unchanged and the USD is flat ahead of the Fed. Commodities are mixed: oil added 0.2%; base metals are lower (copper -1.1%); silver added 0.6% this morning. It’s a big day for capital markets, with SpaceX said to be moving ahead with plans for potentially the biggest IPO of all time and South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix exploring a possible New York share listing. US economic calendar includes 3Q employment cost index at 8:30am and the FOMC decision at 2:00pm.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.3%, Nvidia +0.1%, Amazon -0.01%, Apple +0.08%, Microsoft -1.6%, Alphabet -0.7%, Meta -0.8%)
- Aegon ADRs (AEG) fall 7% following the insurer’s capital markets day statement. Morgan Stanley says group operating profit and capital generation targets look a little underwhelming.
- AeroVironment (AVAV) drops 4% after the maker of drones cut its fiscal year adjusted earnings-per-share outlook.
- Biogen (BIIB) dips 3% after HSBC cut the drugmaker to reduce — its lone sell-equivalent rating — from hold, citing limited near-term earnings improvement as well as a risk to long-term earnings power.
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) declines 6% as it expects sales to fall faster than it previously forecast, showing the country-themed restaurant chain is still struggling following a backlash to its failed logo change earlier this year.
- EchoStar (SATS) is up 4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight, noting that the satellite company stands to benefit from rising competition among US wireless carriers.
- GameStop (GME) slides 6% after the video-game retailer reported net sales for the third quarter that declined nearly 5% year-over-year.
- GE Vernova (GEV) rallies 11% after the electric power company boosted its buyback to $10 billion, doubled its dividend to 50c, affirmed some aspects of its 2025 guidance and presented its 2026 financial guidance.
- PepsiCo (PEP) rises 1% after JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, citing an “accelerated agenda of innovation and marketing spending fueled by strong productivity savings.”
- Photronics (PLAB) gains 15% after the semiconductor supplier forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
1b) European opening report
1c) Asian opening report
European equities point to a slightly weaker open ahead of BoC and FOMC rate announcements – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 01:05 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid cautiousness ahead of today’s Fed policy decision and dot plots, while the region also digested the latest Chinese inflation data.
- China is buying US soybeans again, but is reportedly falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement, according to CNBC.
- US Trade Representative Greer said China’s rare earths continue to flow and expects to sign more trade deals over the coming weeks.
- US President Trump is to kick off the final round of Fed Chair interviews this week, while senior administration officials said Kevin Hassett remains in pole position to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, according to the FT.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Costs (Q3), BoC/FOMC/BCB Rate Announcement. Speakers include BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde, BoC’s Macklem & Fed’s Powell. Supply from the UK. Earnings from Oracle, Adobe & Synopsys.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy on the eve of the FOMC, although the Russell 2000 outperformed and Dow Jones lagged, with weakness in the latter ensuing after JP Morgan’s Lake gave some Q4 guidance – IB revenue up low single digits, and markets revenue up low teens. This pressured JPM shares and weighed on the Financial sector, while Energy, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed.
- The attention was also on data, and T-Notes flattened in response to the September and October JOLTS report, which saw a notable increase, rising to 7.67mln in October from 7.23mln in August, which was well above the 7.15mln forecast, and saw traders pare rate cut bets in 2026, but December pricing was little changed.
- SPX -0.10% at 6,840, NDX +0.16% at 25,669, DJI -0.37% at 47,561, RUT +0.24% at 2,527.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said they have taken in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs, but added shortly after that it is actually trillions.
- US-Indonesia trade deal is at risk of collapse as USTR Greer believes Indonesia is backtracking on several commitments it made, while Indonesian officials have told Greer that Jakarta cannot agree to some binding commitments in the deal, according to FT. However, an Indonesian government source said Indonesia’s tariff negotiation with the US is on track as per the leaders’ joint statement, while an official also said that the trade negotiation with the US is still ongoing, with no specific issues arising during the negotiations.
- US Trade Representative Greer said the Trump administration has made it clear to South Africa that they need to address trade barriers if they want a better tariff situation with the US, while he is open to different treatment and possible exclusion of South Africa if the US renews the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
- US Trade Representative Greer said China’s rare earths continue to flow and expects to sign more trade deals over the coming weeks.
- China is buying US soybeans again, but is reportedly falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement, according to CNBC, while it noted that China has bought less than 3mln metric tons of soybeans since October, which is well short of the 12mln metric tons goal set by a trade deal with President Trump.
- China added domestic AI chips to its official procurement list for the first time, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump is to kick off the final round of Fed Chair interviews this week, while senior administration officials said Kevin Hassett remains in pole position to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, according to FT. Trump later confirmed that he will be meeting with a couple of people for the Fed chair job and separately commented that he hears that Autopen might have signed the appointment of some of the Democrats on the Fed Board of Governors.
- White House Economic Adviser Hassett said as Fed chair, he would be apolitical, according to a Fox Business interview.
- US Senate Majority Leader Thune said the Senate will vote on the GOP plan to address healthcare subsidies on Thursday.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid cautiousness ahead of today’s Fed policy decision and dot plots, while the region also digested the latest Chinese inflation data.
- ASX 200 was flat as weakness in tech, industrials, energy, health care and financials was counterbalanced by resilience in miners, materials and resources.
- Nikkei 225 initially rallied to above the 51,000 level following recent currency weakness, but then reversed course as yields briefly edged higher on BoJ rate hike risks.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated following mixed inflation data, which showed CPI Y/Y accelerated to its highest in almost two years, but PPI was softer-than-expected and showed a worsening deflation in factory gate prices. There were also several trade-related dampeners, including reports that China’s US soybean purchases are falling short of targets, while it was also reported that China is set to limit access to NVIDIA’s H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, and that chips exported to China will undergo a special security review.
- US equity futures lacked direction with participants tentative ahead of the FOMC, where market participants will be eyeing several moving parts, including the actual decision on rates, vote split, dot plots, post-meeting presser and Q&A.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY traded rangebound amid a non-committal mood ahead of the looming FOMC policy announcement and after having mildly benefitted from the stronger-than-expected JOLTS data, which had very little impact on market pricing for today’s meeting but spurred some unwinding of rate cut bets for 2026.
- EUR/USD was uneventful and stayed in a relatively tight range, with very few catalysts for the single currency.
- GBP/USD remained stuck near the 1.3300 focal point despite the recent slew of comments from BoE officials.
- USD/JPY took a breather after climbing yesterday to just shy of the 157.00 territory, which spurred more of the familiar jawboning by Japanese officials, while PPI data printed in line with estimates and had little impact on the currency.
- Antipodeans lacked direction in quiet FX trade and alongside the mostly subdued risk appetite ahead of the Fed policy announcement.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lingered near a 3-month low after the curve flattened as rising JOLTS spurred traders to pare some of their 2026 rate cut bets.
- Bund futures lacked demand following the recent choppy performance and absence of pertinent catalysts.
- 10yr JGB futures faded the prior day’s late advances and reverted to flat territory at a sub-134.00 level after Japanese PPI data matched estimates.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses but with the recovery hampered amid the cautious risk sentiment and following mixed weekly private sector inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected draw in headline crude stockpiles and a much wider build in gasoline inventories.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Distillate +1.0mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +7.0mln (exp. +2.8mln), Cushing -0.9mln.
- EIA STEO showed world oil demand outlook was slightly lowered for 2025 to 103.9mln BPD (prev. 104.1mln BPD), but the production outlook was raised to 106.2mln BPD (prev. 106mln BPD), while demand and production outlooks were unchanged for 2026. 2025 at 105.2mln BPD and 107.4mln BPD, respectively.
- Operations resumed at Libya’s Zueitina, Ras Lanuf, Es Sider, and Brega oil terminals, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Spot gold was ultimately flat after failing to sustain the early momentum in the metals complex, which saw silver surge to a fresh record high north of USD 61/oz.
- Copper futures clawed back some of their recent losses but with further upside capped amid the pre-FOMC cautiousness.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy overnight and oscillated through the USD 92,500 level in a relatively narrow range.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese PM Takaichi said they are closely watching market moves when asked about rising yields. Takaichi also commented that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and will take appropriate action for excessive and disorderly FX moves, while she added that a weak yen has both merits and demerits.
- RBNZ Governor Breman said the RBNZ has achieved a great deal towards the delivery of its mandated functions, while she added they are keeping a close look at data, including inflation and GDP. Breman also said there is no preset course for monetary policy and will adjust if they see the outlook for inflation change.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Nov) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Nov) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Nov) -2.2% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -2.1%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Nov) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.5%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Nov) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump gave Ukrainian President Zelensky “days” to respond to the peace proposal, according to FT.
- Ukraine President Zelensky sees leader-level talks with the US next week, and said Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire if Russia agrees, while he wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with the US. Zelensky also said they are ready to hold elections and ask US and European partners to guarantee security during the process, as well as noted that if security is guaranteed, elections could be held in the next 60-90 days.
- Ukrainian top commander Syrskyi said Ukrainian troops were able to take control of parts of Pokrovsk from mid-November and are now holding the northern parts of the city, while he added the situation in Pokrovsk is still difficult as Russians have amassed 156k troops and use rain and fog as cover.
OTHER
- US President Trump said he will have to make a call on Wednesday about Thailand and Cambodia, while he commented that the two countries are at it again.
- Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said there is no truth that Japan also aimed radar at Chinese aircraft, while he added that China did not provide specific details about naval training exercises in communication with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. Furthermore, he said Japan demands that China prevent the recurrence of dangerous acts which exceed the necessary range for safe aircraft operations.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- French lawmakers back spending part of social-security budget, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Panetta sees a move away from the dollar as a key world currency, in which he stated that the world “may gradually drift towards a more multi-polar configuration”.
b. JAPAN
3. CHINA
USA//CHINA
First Active British Soldier Dies In Ukraine In ‘Tragic Accident’
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 05:45 AM
Britain’s military has announced the death of a member of the UK Armed Forces in what officials called a “tragic accident” on Tuesday. The accident happened during a weapons trial conducted by Ukrainian forces, and inside Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defence’s official statement described that the soldier “was injured in a tragic accident whilst observing Ukrainian forces test a new defensive capability, away from the front lines.”
No other related details were released, including about the weapons system involved or the precise location. The description of the system being a “new” defense capability is interesting, however.
“The tragedy occurred during training, and we extend our condolences to the family and loved ones,” the statement added, emphasizing that it was not combat related.
The British soldier may have been observing active combat from a distance, as Financial Times suggests:
An MoD spokesperson said the death was not believed to have been caused by hostile fire, and the soldier had been injured “whilst observing Ukrainian forces test a new defensive capability, away from the front lines”. The serviceman, whose name has not been released, died on Tuesday morning. His family has been informed.
While there have over the years of the Ukraine war been reports of British security contractors and volunteers dying while fighting Russia, this marks a rare – and possibly first – known death of an active UK service member in the country.
As The Guardian observes, “A Ukrainian memorial produced by the Kyiv war museum has counted that 40 Britons have died defending Ukraine, a higher number than previously thought. None are known to have been serving in the British military at the time of their death.”
According to more from FT:
In July, UK Defence Secretary John Healey told parliament that UK personnel were in Ukraine to scout new security arrangements to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. He said planning included “reconnaissance in Ukraine, led by UK personnel”.
The circumstances of the accident remain unclear, including what was being tested and how the soldier came to be fatally injured. Ukrainian forces have been trialling a range of new defensive technologies — from counter-drone systems to new long-range missiles — as they continue to adapt to evolving battlefield threats.
Britain all the way back closer to the start of the war in 2022 became among the first Western countries to begin hosting Ukrainian troop training programs on its soil. In all probably tens of thousands of Ukrainian have been trained by UK advisers at this point.
As for foreign fighters near the front lines, France has also seen its citizens and foreign legion members go join the fight. At various times the Kremlin has condemned this trend, especially the rise in French mercenaries, and said it won’t refrain from actively targeting any combatants on or near the front lines. American volunteers have also been killed – on both sides it turns out.
END
GERMANY
Germany Plans Largest Single-Year Investment In Arms, Equipment In Its History
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 02:45 AM
At a moment the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on, and as Trump-led efforts to find peace have been frustrated – largely as Zelensky and his backers have balked at agreeing to any territorial compromise as the bases of a deal – Germany is busy transforming its military with an aim to boost Bundeswehr numbers and meet NATO targets.
That news dominated headlines last week, but added to this Bloomberg is newly reporting Tuesday that the troop expansion will coincide with a major tech and armament expansion, given lawmakers are expected to approve a record €52 billion (about $61 billion) in military procurement contracts next week.
This will mark the largest single-year investment in defense equipment in the country’s history, underscoring Berlin’s renewed push to modernize its armed forces amid the growing European standoff with Russia.
As for 2025 numbers, prior approvals brought total defense commitments for this year to above €33 billion. So next year’s could more than double, based on the new projected figures.
Much of the money is expected to flow to German defense manufacturers, including major firms like Heckler & Koch and Rheinmetall, both long well-known known for their advanced military equipment.
The new procurement package covers 73 major projects aimed at upgrading the Bundeswehr. Examples of key items slated for purchase include:
- F-35 fighter jets: Advanced stealth aircraft essential for modern air operations.
- Joint Strike Missiles: Precision munitions that significantly enhance Germany’s strike capabilities.
- Aladin reconnaissance drones: Unmanned systems that will improve real-time surveillance and intelligence collection.
- G95 assault rifles: Modern small arms intended to give soldiers more reliable, effective weaponry.
- Air defense systems: Critical assets to safeguard German airspace from potential threats.
- Armored vehicles: New platforms that boost troop protection and mobility in combat.
- Additional small arms: A range of weapons to better equip personnel for varied missions.
German defense minister Boris Pistorius recently told Germans there was “no cause for concern…no reason for fear…The more capable of deterrence and defense our armed forces are, through armament through training and through personnel, the less likely it is that we will become a party to a conflict at all.”
Pistorius and Chancellor Friedrich Merz have set a goal for having Europe’s largest military and to be “war-ready” by 2029. Doing its part to promote German militarism, the Wall Street Journal’s cited unnamed “military analysts [who] think Russia may be able and willing to attack NATO” by that year.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
Tony Blair ‘Dropped’ From Trump’s Gaza ‘Board Of Peace’
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 05:00 PM
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is no longer being considered for a seat on a “board of peace” for Gaza chaired by US President Donald Trump. According to the Financial Times, Blair’s name was dropped under pressure from several Arab and Muslim states.
The status of the “board of peace” remains unclear and while the idea has received wide coverage, few details have emerged about it. One person in Blair’s office who spoke with the FT said that only “serving world leaders” will be on the so-called board, and a smaller executive board will function under it, which will include Blair, along with Jared Kushner, the US president’s son-in-law and Trump adviser Steve Witkoff.
Neither Witkoff nor Kushner has visited Israel in recent weeks, with most of their overseas travel geared toward negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. Other elements of Trump’s Gaza peace plan, like an international stabilization force, appear to have stalled.
Some regional Middle Eastern leaders had pushed for Blair’s involvement, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. A source in the Egyptian presidency previously told Middle East Eye that Sisi was “highly unlikely to object to Blair assuming leadership of the proposed administrative council for Gaza”.
However, many others raised concerns over Blair’s record in the Middle East. Apart from his involvement in the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq, his tenure as Middle East Peace Envoy failed to achieve a lasting peace solution for Israel-Palestine and was widely criticized by both sides.
A person briefed on the discussions told the Financial Times that Blair could still have a position in the future governance structures for Gaza in spite of opposition. “He could still have a role in a different capacity and that seems likely,” the person said. “The Americans like him and the Israelis like him.”
Blair’s involvement in the project was first suggested in September, with reports saying he was being considered to lead a transitional authority in the enclave.
Trump is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on December 29 to discuss the next steps of the Gaza ceasefire, which despite being officially established in October has seen hundreds of Israeli violations.
On Sunday, Netanyahu said that he will be discussing with Trump the second phase of a US plan to end the war in Gaza later this month.
Wide gaps remain on key issues yet to be discussed under Trump’s plan to end the war, including Hamas disarmament, the governance of post-war Gaza and the composition and mandate of an international security force in the enclave.
“The Prime Minister will meet with President Trump on Monday December 29. They will discuss the future steps and phases, and the international stabilization force of the ceasefire plan,” Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said in an online briefing to reporters.
Netanyahu’s office said on December 1 that Trump had invited the prime minister to the White House. Israeli media have since reported that the two leaders may meet in Florida.
The Government Media Office in Gaza says Israel has carried out 738 violations in the 60 days since the ceasefire agreement was announced, accusing them of repeatedly breaching the ceasefire deal’s basic humanitarian provisions.
Officials said Israel has honored less than 40 percent of its humanitarian obligations, a failure they argue has deepened the crisis for Palestinians already living under a suffocating blockade and ongoing military pressure.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Israel Launches New Wave Of Huge Airstrikes On Lebanon
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Israel’s military has confirmed it carried out new waves of air attacks in southern Lebanon that damaged several homes and buildings, which the IDF said primarily targeted Hezbollah training camps.
The largescale attacks occurred despite what’s supposed to be a agreed upon truce in effect going all the way back to November 2024. Prior to that, Hezbollah had been engaged in daily exchanges of rocket and drone fire, in a war which kicked off in tandem with the Gaza war.
Lebanon’s National News Agency reported late Monday that new strikes hit Mount Safi, the town of Jbaa, the Zefta Valley, and the area between Azza and Rumin Arki, and cited that “several waves” were launched, but there appeared no initial reports of casualties.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel is vowing to essentially finish off Hezbollah after already having largely decimated its leadership in 2024. The IDF announced that “military structures and a launch site belonging to Hezbollah, used to advance terror attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel, were also struck.”
“The targets that were struck, and the military training conducted in preparation for attacks against the State of Israel, constitute a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon and a threat to the State of Israel,” the statement added.
Significantly, the aerial assault reached some 20-30 km north of the Israel’s border, as described by Israeli Army Radio.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said these operations are “likely” to continue and that Israel will not stop until ‘terror infrastructure’ is destroyed and dismantled. Israeli citizens of far northern settlements and communities have only recently been able to safely resettle in their homes.
“We are enforcing in Lebanon, without compromise, against any Hezbollah armament and any violation of the ceasefire,” Smotrich said.
“It is likely that we will soon need to return and operate there to preserve the gains achieved against Hezbollah,” added the minister.
“We will not allow Hezbollah to remain. Residents of the north deserve to live in complete security in their communities,” he described. “There will no longer be a situation in which towns are the front line and the IDF is behind them. The IDF will be the front protecting the communities, and the communities will be behind it.”
Washington has also lately been pressuring the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah; however, the Shia militant group is actually far better armed than the Lebanese Army. Ironically it has been the United States which has kept Lebanon’s military intentionally weak, on fears that any heavy armaments could be used against Israel.
ISRAEL/EGYPT
be careful what you wish for;
(JerusalemPost)
Meeting with Israel, US dependent on Netanyahu signing gas agreement, Egypt’s Sisi says – report
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is also reportedly demanding Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, Ynet said, quoting sources familiar with the matter.
President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attends the 34th Arab League summit, in Baghdad, Iraq, May 17, 2025; illustrative.(photo credit: HADI MIZBAN/POOL VIA REUTERS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 9, 2025 22:03
The trilateral meeting between Egypt, the United States, and Israel, expected to take place at the end of the month, is now contingent on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreeing to the proposed gas agreement with Egypt, Ynet reported on Tuesday evening.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is also reportedly demanding that Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, Ynet reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
“This is a huge opportunity for Israel,” a US official told Axios on Sunday.
Selling gas to Egypt will create interdependence, get the countries closer together, create a warmer peace, and prevent war.”
Marco Rubio speaks with Egyptian FM
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty also spoke on Tuesday regarding implementing the second phase of the U.S.-backed Gaza peace deal, the US State Department said in an afternoon statement.
The two also discussed bilateral cooperation between their countries and the ongoing attempts to achieve a ceasefire in Sudan.
James Genn contributed to this report.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
EU & Zelensky Contemplating Dumping All US Debt If Trump Strikes Deal With Putin | Armstrong Economics
This maybe one of the most important things to read in a long time. Even such discussion behind closed doors is a direct act of potential WAR. This really implies that the EU is truly desperate and willingly will destroy itself.
In times gone bye the CITY would have sold the Euro into the basement!.
The implications for US/EU relationships either in public view or not will take a turn for the worse. The concept that the US may abandons the EU in part or in total is not beyond the realms of possibilities. One imagines that behind the curtain awake fund managers are already pricing in such talk accordingly and hedging accordingly. This is what a competent party would do. Yes, there is a real risk for the US. America would take this as a direct attack upon its sovereignty. And the backlash would be severe. Already this smells like some European globalist plot hatched in a closet. As it is China has already told Europe they are not relevant. And it is also clear that the US and Russia feel the same way. Note that Macron came away empty handed from his most recent visit to China.
Why? Europe needs both London and New York to sell its debt. Those windows could well disappear. As this offers up a new collective opportunity for both parties at the expense of the EU. One would be naive to think that the tables cannot be turned upon the EU and Zelensky. USD can always be frozen anywhere in the world and properties are worthless is assets are frozen. And there is real question of what trade shifts could occur overnight. Does one not think that the Asian manufacturers of say vehicles might not be treated favorably with a 100% tariff upon all European products? Whatever comes, know that such conversation has already changed the relationship between the EU and America. And it is far from certain that individual countries like Italy or Hungary will simply go along with such folly.
As for Zelensky his days are numbered and fate will come to collect its dues. It does not matter his Brit and French protection teams. People forget or ignore history. If one were to look one would discover that the crimes committed by Bandera and his crew were beyond comprehension. He and his crew never were held to account for their atrocities. Read the Nuremberg files on this. The same attitude in Ukraine exists today.
Where we go from here is now a new direction scarred by foolishness.
end
Russia Rejects New Zelensky Offer Of ‘Energy Ceasefire’ As Grid Repair Woes Worsen
Russia has rejected a new Zelensky proposal for an “energy ceasefire.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has explained that Russia wants a “long-term peace” and not a just a temporary ceasefire. Zelensky has offered a mutual halt to strikes on energy infrastructure if Russia agreed, mirroring something which had only briefly been in effect at the start of this year.
This ‘offer’ comes at a moment that Ukraine is suffering perhaps its worst energy crisis of the war, with lengthy blackouts not just being experienced in the country’s east and south – but long outages in and around the capital as well.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Ukrainian Energy Research Center, has in recent comments confirmed that resources for repairing damaged energy facilities have almost run out.
“Now I don’t see the resources from either Ukrenergo, the generating or distribution companies to purchase the equipment they already need and will need in two or three months,” he said in televised remarks.
“Ukraine may run out of equipment to restore its energy system if Russia continues to launch attacks,” he has explained.
The new proposal for a fresh energy ceasefire comes as Moscow is still livid at recent attacks on tankers transporting Russian oil. And now a cargo vessel carrying grain from Crimea has been detained at Odessa port:
Ukrainian security officials have detained a cargo vessel in the port of Odesa that authorities say is part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Wednesday.
The ship, whose name was not disclosed, arrived under the flag of an African country to load a shipment of steel pipes. The captain and 16 crew members holding passports from unspecified Middle Eastern countries were on board at the time of the seizure.
According to the SBU, the vessel illegally transported nearly 7,000 tons of Russian grain from annexed Crimea to North Africa in January 2021.
The SBU claims it found evidence of “illegal operations in ports on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory” after a search of the ship.
Apparently Ukrainian authorities intend to seize the ship’s cargo altogether, and transfer them Ukraine’s Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA), a government entity which deals with property linked to corruption or other crimes. So naturally, Moscow is not going to look kindly on fresh offers to mutually stop attacks on energy infrastructure.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
ROBERT H:
Mario Nawfal on X: “
BREAKING: FDA LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO COVID VACCINE-RELATED DEATHS ACROSS ALL AGE GROUPS The U.S. government is now officially probing whether COVID-19 vaccines may be linked to deaths in people of various ages. This marks the most serious federal review of vaccine https://t.co/icD39Pn4rf” / X
HARVEY; THEY THINK IT MIGHT HAVE CAUSED DEATHS?
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
in memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, December 1-December 8, 2025
Reality star Chad Spodick (42); dancers Donyelle Jones (46,C), Criscilla Anderson; TV producer Nick Holly (C); movie exec Tammie Rosen (C); bassist Justin Baren (40); hoopster Elden Campbell; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerDec 10 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (80)
Former ‘Finding Prince Charming’ Star Chad Spodick Dies at 42
December 6, 2025
Former reality TV contestant Chad Spodick has died at the age of 42. The Finding Prince Charming alum’s death was confirmed via a GoFundMe page published by his friend on Thursday, December 4. Spodick famously competed on the one-season Logo TV reality dating series Finding Prince Charming in 2016.
No cause of death reported.
Two dancers “died suddenly” from cancer:
‘So You Think You Can Dance’ Star Donyelle Jones Dead at 46 After Battle With Illness
December 4, 2025
Donyelle Jones, the breakout star of “So You Think You Can Dance” season two, breathed her last at 46. She passed away the morning of December 2, 2025, after a devastating battle with metastatic breast cancer. Jones was first diagnosed with stage 3C breast cancer in 2016. She underwent a double mastectomy and endured extensive chemotherapy. Later, the disease returned as stage 4 metastatic cancer.
Criscilla Anderson, wife of country singer Coffey, dies from colon cancer at 45
December 4, 2025
Choreographer Criscilla Crossland Anderson, who has performed with stars from Britney Spears to Rihanna, has died from colon cancer. She was 45. The hip-hop dancer, who starred in the 2020 Netflix reality series “Country Ever After” alongside her ex-husband Coffey Anderson, was diagnosed with stage 4 colon cancer in 2018. She was cancer-free in 2021 before it returned, affecting her lymph nodes, in 2022. Criscilla and Coffey were undergoing divorce proceedings at the time of her death. As a couple, the two starred in one season of the Netflix series that offered a glimpse into their lives as a family and her battle with cancer. Before she died, Anderson wrote a message to her loved ones, her community and her supporters. Her friend, Lindsey, shared her words in the caption of her Dec. 3 post. ”My sweet community, if you’re reading this, I’ve finally slipped into the arms of Jesus — peacefully and surrounded by love. Please don’t stay in the darkness of this moment. I fought hard and I loved deeply. I am not gone… I’m Home,” Anderson wrote.
Reported on November 29:
Nick Holly dead: Manager and co-creator of Sons and Daughters dies of cancer aged 51
November 29, 2025
Nick Holly, one of the people behind the creation of Australian soap opera Sons and Daughters, has died of cancer at the age of 51. The manager, writer and producer passed away at his home in Santa Monica, California, on November 21, surrounded by his loved ones. His family released a statement announcing the sad news, which read: “Holly loved the ocean, the wilderness, and traveling the world, climbing mountains from Baldy to Kilimanjaro.” His sister, actress Lauren Holly, posted an emotional message on Instagram too, sharing it wasn’t her only recent heartbreak. She wrote: “I’ve lost my father and my brother in the last two weeks. I just want to say out loud how much I loved them. How much I will miss them.”
Tammie Rosen, Sundance and Tribeca Communications Chief, Dies at 49 Following Cancer Battle
December 2, 2025
Tammie Rosen, a staple of the indie film world who most recently worked at the Sundance Institute as chief communications officer, has died after a battle with cancer. She was 49 years old. Rosen was known as an indefatigable advocate for the indie filmmakers that Sundance highlighted, and worked around the clock (she literally answered emails and texts at all hours) to promote their work and the festivals that served as important launching pads for their careers. She had a sharp wit, an exhaustive knowledge of the industry and a warm and outgoing spirit.
Former teen pop star Justin Baren dies ‘peacefully’ aged just 40
December 4, 2025
The beloved singer and bassist of a Chicago pop-rock band that shot to fame straight out of high school has died aged just 40. Justin Baren, a founding member of The Redwalls, died on November 28 – with his death causing widespread heartbreak among fans and loved ones. While his cause of death has not been publicly disclosed, his father, Martin Baren, assured the Chicago Sun-Times that he died ‘peacefully.’
Cause of death for NBA champion Elden Campbell, 57, revealed after suffering medical emergency while fishing
December 5, 2025
The death of NBA champion and Clemson great Elden Campbell was ruled an accidental drowning after the basketball icon reportedly suffered a medical emergency during a fishing trip. Broward County officials confirmed to People magazine that the 57-year-old former NBA pro died on Monday “due to drowning.” The death was ruled accidental after Campbell reportedly suffered a medical emergency while fishing. Campbell’s sister, Sandra, told the New York Post that he wasn’t sick at the time of his death. “It was all the sudden,” she told the outlet. “He wasn’t sick. He was out fishing.”
No cause of death reported.
Black College Basketball Player Ethan Dietz Dies At 20 After Head Injury During Game
December 5, 2025
A sophomore student at Connors State College [Warner, OK] has died after sustaining an injury during a basketball game. Ethan Dietz was playing in a match against Grayson College in Texas when he was injured and removed from the game. He was hospitalized and died three days later on Nov. 25. Dietz was going up for a shot under the basket when he was injured inadvertently by an opposing player’s elbow, according to KATV. Sixteen minutes were remaining in the game when the incident occurred. Dietz grabbed his head in his hands and was helped off the floor by two of his teammates. It is unclear if Dietz received medical treatment during the game. Connors State’s athletic trainers, as well as an assistant coach, were seen checking on him while on the bench. Dietz returned to the game a few minutes later and was seen holding his head on the floor. He subbed himself out of the game, put a towel on his head and sat out for the remaining time. After a timeout, he did not join his teammates to celebrate. He left the court after one of his teammates helped him out. A day after the game, Connors State College confirmed Dietz’s injury in a statement, although they did not specify what type of injury he had sustained. The college shared that he had been transported to the hospital to receive care. Connors State College announced that Dietz had died on the morning of Nov. 25. A cause of death has not been shared as of now.
Two NASCAR racers “died suddenly”:
Former NASCAR driver Michael Annett dies at 39
December 4, 2025
JR Motorsports announced on Friday that former NASCAR driver Michael Annett died. He was 39 years old. Annett spent the final five years of his driving career with JR Motorsports. A cause of death for Annett has yet to be announced.
NASCAR hit with another crushing loss as beloved motorsports star dead at 55
December 6, 2025
The NASCAR community is in mourning after the death of popular driver Nick Joanides, a veteran of the West Coast stock car racing scene. The 55-year-old competed regularly on the ARCA West series in recent years, making three appearances in 2025 and racing eight times in 2024. Joanides’ last race was the 2025 Star Nursery 150 at the Las Vegas Bullring in October, during which his race was curtailed by a nasty wreck after hitting the wall. He was able to climb out of the No. 77, but that was the last time he competed competitively. Joe Nava, owner of the Performance P-1 Motorsports team that Joanides competed for this season, revealed last month that Joanides suffered a broken leg in the crash, compounding a “life-threatening sickness” that the driver had been battling for more than two years.
No cause of death reported.
CNN host Valerie Hoff DeCarlo dies at 62 after quitting industry over racial slur drama
December 4, 2025
Valerie Hoff DeCarlo has sadly died at the age of 62. The ex-CNN anchor, who was ousted from the journalism industry after she used the N-word in a private exchange with a black source, passed away last week after a battle with lung cancer. Valerie served as an anchor on CNN from 1992 to 1999. After her stint at the left-wing network, she worked as an anchor and consumer reporter at NBC-affiliate WXIA in Atlanta from 1999 to 2017, according to her LinkedIn profile. However, her career met an abrupt end when she was embroiled in a racism scandal. She was best known for her work that melded with her personal life, including her family’s adoption journey and her battle with breast cancer in 2013. Valerie was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer in 2024 and unfortunately, in the midst of organizing a cruise trip with her family and planning to host a Christmas party, she passed away, her close friends told the outlet.
Magazine editor’s sudden death sets off bizarre battle over Billy Crudup interview
December 7, 2025
A small but beloved arts magazine scored a coup by landing A-list Hollywood star Billy Crudup as its cover star. But when the mag’s editor died suddenly, it set off a bizarre and ugly battle over the “Morning Show” star’s interview and photoshoot. Rebeca Herrero founded Art Bodega in 2013 and published more than 100 issues before she shockingly passed away last month at 49.
No cause of death reported.
Porter Anderson, editor-in-chief of international trade magazine Publishing Perspectives, has died
December 3, 2025
Anderson was editor-in-chief of Publishing Perspectives from 2016 to 2025. He was named International Trade Journalist of the Year at the London Book Fair’s International Excellence Awards 2019. Previously, he was associate editor of The FutureBook at The Bookseller in London. For more than a decade, he worked as a senior producer and presenter at CNN.com, CNN International and CNN USA. He was a fellow of the National Critics Institute and worked as an art critic for the Village Voice and Dallas Times Herald among others.
No age or cause of death reported.
Prominent Peoria area mental health counselor has died
December 7, 2025
PEORIA, IL – Dr. Joy Erlichman Miller, who has provided mental health and awareness services across Central Illinois, died suddenly on Saturday. Dr. Miller was founder and director of Joy Miller & Associates in Peoria. She was a Certified Master Addictions Counselor, participated in over 150 conferences internationally, and worked with over 15,000 participants in the past 20 years. Also, she also appeared on several nationally televised talk shows, and she hosted “Ask Dr. Joy” segments on WEEK, which focused on mental health issues. Dr. Joy Erlichman Miller would have celebrated her 75th birthday on Monday, Dec. 8.
No cause of death reported.
An infant “died suddenly”:
Legend Ryan Golden, 2 months
December 4, 2025
TEXARKANA, ARKANSAS – Legend was born September 6, 2025 and transitioned November 25, 2025. Legend, affectionally known as “Pooh” was 2 months old.
No cause of death reported.
A grad student “died suddenly”:
Local university grieves loss of student after unexpected death
December 7, 2025
DAYTON, Ohio – A University of Dayton graduate student is unexpectedly dead, school officials confirmed. According to the university, Sankeerth Pinumalla, 24, who lived off-campus, died unexpectedly Saturday morning. He was a mechanical engineering graduate student from India.
Researcher’s note - University of Dayton to require COVID-19 vaccination [sic] for all staff, student employees:Link
No cause of death reported.
Three police officers “died suddenly”:
LMPD remembers Ofc. Nick Dewees who died of cancer
December 5, 2025
LOUISVILLE, Ky. —The Louisville Metro Police Department is mourning the death of Lt. Nick Dewees, who died this week after a three-year battle with cancer.
No age reported.
Minneapolis police recruit dies off duty just weeks after joining department, chief says
December 4, 2025
Minneapolis, MN – The Minneapolis Police Department announced Thursday one of its new recruits, Amara Kanneh, died unexpectedly while off duty. Chief Brian O’Hara says Kanneh, who died on Wednesday, had just joined the department in early October and was still training at the police academy. O’Hara didn’t disclose his cause of death.
No age reported.
Caddo Sheriff’s Office captain died suddenly after more than a quarter century on job
December 4, 2025
Shreveport, Louisiana – A member of the Caddo Sheriff’s Office with more than a quarter century of service has died suddenly. Capt. Aaron Cornelius died early Thursday as the result of a sudden illness with more than 26 years of experience with the agency. He had recently been placed in charge of the re-entry and work-release programs.
No age or cause of death reported.
Four firefighters “died suddenly”:
Jimmy Townsend, Deputy Chief
December 8, 2025
Monck’s Corner, SC – On September 27, 2025, Deputy Chief Jimmy Townsend [61] responded to two emergency calls during his shift. The following day, Deputy Chief Townsend suffered a fatal cardiovascular event within 24 hours of responding to the second emergency incident.
New Haven Fire Department mourns loss of one of its own to cancer
December 4, 2025
NEW HAVEN, Conn. — The New Haven Fire Department is mourning the loss of one its members to cancer this week. Firefighter Christopher “Chris” Brainard, 36, passed away on Wednesday, according to a release from the city on Thursday. “He was an exceptional human being,” Fire Chief John Alston said. “He was the kind of person who would help anyone, anytime without hesitation.”
Simsbury firefighter who ‘did everything with honesty and integrity’ dies at 39
December 3, 2025
Simsbury, CT – Gregory Stephen Reynolds, a volunteer firefighter “who did everything with honesty and integrity,” died unexpectedly on Nov. 27, according to his obituary. He was 39. Reynolds was a married father of two children.
No cause of death reported.
Steven Schulze, 59
December 2, 2025
GIDDINGS, TEXAS – Steven Ray Schulze passed away peacefully on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, at his home in La Grange, surrounded by his family. He worked at Pace Fertilizer for 21 years. Steven was a volunteer firefighter for Ledbetter Fire Department and helped bring back the lane of lights.
No cause of death reported.
Alabama couple dies within hours of each other after 49 years of marriage
December 7, 2025
…
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
The Fiddle-All Reserve
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 10:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The RBA rates hold decision generated two notable headlines from the Australian Financial Review: ‘RBA is worried it cut interest rates too far’; and ‘RBA is caught in Ray Dalio’s Doom Loop’.
The Bank of England says Chancellor Reeves’ budget will lower inflation by 50bps in 2026, backing the view that they will give the public an Xmas rate cut next week. Of course, note that the Australian government used similar state spending deliberately targeted at certain sections of the CPI index to help persuade the RBA to cut three times… only for it to then worry it went too far and get caught in a ‘doom loop’.
The RBNZ ‘s new Governor Brennan stated rates are not on a preset course, implying that they could go either up or down. Who knew? Not those who think they can’t go back up, for one.
Today, sees the Bank of Canada, the Fed, and the BCB in Brazil – which in Asia means a day of fiddling. The BCB is seen on hold at 15%. So is the BoC at 2.25% (see here for more from our cross-asset strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence). At the Fed, a 25bps cut to 3.75% is priced in (see here for the take from our US Strategist Philip Marey) – but so is disagreement on what next. As Reuters headlines it, ‘Investors warm up for long spell of discordant Fed’. That’s putting it mildly.
The Financial Times reports Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent will start final interviews for the new Fed Chair this week, with a trio of names still in the ring alongside favorite Kevin Hassett. He just said he wouldn’t bow to pressure over cutting rates, but he agrees with Trump there’s “plenty of room” for cuts in the coming months. So, that’s one tricky interview question in his pocket. However, ‘Where do you see yourself in five years?’ might be harder given the FT claims Hassett could be appointed for a shorter than usual term, allowing “Bessent to move to the Fed later.” Moreover, at a campaign-style rally, Trump just stated “It could be” that all four Biden-era Fed appointments, including “too late” Powell, “may have been signed by the autopen”, so are “maybe” invalid, “but we’ll take two.”
The RBA fiddled. The BOE may fiddle. The RBNZ may fiddle. The BoC are taking a rest from fiddling. The Fed is still fiddling – and the Fed is being fiddled with. Yet Nero-liberal markets don’t fret about getting burned as the music deafens them to what’s going on.
Trump just gave Ukraine’s Zelenskyy “days” to respond to his peace proposal: he reportedly wants things wrapped up by Xmas having failed to do so for Thanksgiving. Ukraine is preparing to unveil its updated peace proposal to the US, and Zelenskyy also claims to be “ready for elections.”
Trump thrashed EU leaders, stating “I think they’re weak,” and their countries are “decaying” – the accompanying article states “The Most Influential Man in Europe Thinks Europe is Full of Losers.” Trump also denied pledging any Argentina-style bailout for Hungary’s embattled leader Orbán, even if he praised central and eastern Europe vs the west.
European leaders have, typically, responded weakly for fear of losing US support. Indeed, the US denied a German request to integrate American artillery rockets into its armed forces, which could make it more difficult for the German military to cooperate with the US and other NATO allies. For an overview of the geostrategic dilemma Europe is in, see ‘A Grand Strategy for Europe in the New Cold War’. For now, there is Romanesque rhetoric but Nero-style fiddling going on.
Against this backdrop, the FT also argues ‘Why the world should worry about stablecoins’, concluding that “Dollar-based digital currencies offer benefits for the US, but Britain and the EU are better off resisting them.” Really? How? Is that also fiddling as things get hotter?
The Politico interview also touched on the “Trump Corollary” to the US Monroe Doctrine, where he refused to rule out boots on the ground in Venezuela, or moves vs Colombia or Mexico. That’s as CNN reports the Trump admin is quietly building plans for what would happen if Maduro were ousted – as if this is in the passive rather than active sense.
In geoeconomics, Trump’s controversial decision to allow Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China is seen by Bloomberg as spurred by Huawei’s AI Gains; the Wall Street Journal states those chips will have to undergo an unusual US security review before being exported to China; and the FT claims China will (again) limit access to them anyway, as it aims for its domestic production. That’s what a push for strategic autonomy looks like – not lots of grand speeches about strategic autonomy.
The EU has announced stricter food import controls to reassure EU farmers and address French conditions for supporting the EU-Mercosur deal: will it therefore replace tariffs with non-tariff barriers? It’s also considering further tariffs on China. Meanwhile, EU Industry Commissioner Séjourné admitted: “Last month, I was supposed to go to Brazil to discuss a rare earth mine. Three days beforehand we were told that the Americans had come, put money on the table, and bought all production until 2030.” By contrast, China claims to have pulled off a critical mineral production tech revolution in 10 months, leaving it further ahead. And in the UK, a token vote in favor of rejoining the customs union with the EU passed Parliament.
The FT also reports July’s US-Indonesia trade deal is at risk of collapse, with D.C. believing that Jakarta is reneging on terms of agreement. Watch this space to see how the US reacts when a country doesn’t stick to a deal.
In political economy, France’s National Assembly narrowly approved a contentious 2026 social security budget. At the same time, the leading French (presumed) presidential candidate Bardella claims “Together, Nigel Farage and I will restore Europe’s borders” via a ‘patriotic alliance’ between the National Rally and Reform UK to reshape Europe. Not coincidentally, the UK’s PM Starmer, a former Human Rights lawyer, urged Europe’s leaders to curb (or can we say, ‘fiddle with’?) the European Court of Human Rights in order to halt the rise of the far right.
In key data, China’s CPI inflation was unchanged y-o-y at 0.7%, but PPI deflation deepened further to -2.2% from -2.1%. Of course, that shows some economic problems, even if the West would kill for 0.7% CPI. So do reports that major Chinese EV firms are losing money on every vehicle that they sell. But when the quid pro quo is global domination of supply chains now close the point of no return for other countries’ established industries such that no future recovery is then possible, it’s arguably still a tune worth squeezing out of all the instruments of economic statecraft… even if Neo-liberalism burns.
Against that kind of backdrop, the Fed meeting today is just one little note.
END
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
Oil Trading Giant Warns Of Looming “Super Glut” Due To Supply Surge
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 08:30 PM
Echoing what has become a now daily refrain by commodity bears everywhere, Saad Rahim, chief economist of commodity-trading giant, Trafigura, said that the oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy. According to Rahim, new drilling projects and slowing demand growth would weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.
“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results.
Brent crude has fallen 16% this year, on track for its worst year since 2020. Prices are expected to be further damped by major projects coming online next year, including in Brazil and Guyana.
The glut thesis is hardly new, and has been popularized by banks such as Citi and Goldman for the past year. As Goldman analyst Daan Struyven wrote in his latest oil tracker note, “global visible oil stocks have built by nearly 2mb/d over the past 30 days.” The banks expects them to grow significantly more in the coming years.
Meanwhile demand from China, which is widely seen as aggressively stocking its strategic petroleum reserve by 500kb/d (and as much as 1 mm/d according to some estimates) and is the world’s biggest oil importer, is expected to grow more slowly next year due to its huge fleet of electric vehicles, which have sharply reduced petrol demand. Low prices this year have prompted China to buy more crude to fill its strategic stockpile.
“China needs to keep buying at this rate, for that super glut to not show up even earlier,” Rahim added.
The US government has also been trying to keep oil prices low, and President Donald Trump has pledged to “drill, baby, drill” in a push to increase American production. There has also been speculation that the US will also refill its SPR which was largely emptied by Biden but since that will promptly drive prices higher, so far this has been nothing but speculation, and meanwhile the US barely has any reserves for a true emergency.
Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura, said in October that he expected oil prices could fall below $60 a barrel before rallying. “I suspect we’ll go into the $50s at some point across Christmas and the new year,” he said at the time.
According to the FT, Trafigura reported net profits of $2.7bn during the fiscal year that ended in September, down slightly from $2.8bn the previous year, and a five-year low after years of bumper profits linked to Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine when most commodity traders were breaching sanctions and making a killing in the process.
Its non-ferrous metals trading division reported a record year, due in part to the profits made by shipping copper into the US amid the disruptions caused by whipsawing tariff rules, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum said “significant headline-driven volatility” had been a major driver for markets this year and that the trend would continue in 2026.
“Trading conditions were not easy last year and our trading team put on a really credible performance across all divisions,” said Holtum.
However, the small drop in profits, combined with rising payouts to Trafigura’s employee-shareholders, meant group equity fell slightly, to $16.2bn, from $16.3bn the previous year, marking the first time this figure has shrunk since 2018.
Payouts to Trafigura’s employees rose to $2.9bn, up from $2bn during the prior year. The company, whose top management is based in Geneva, pays out “dividends” to its employee-shareholders, including by buying back the shares of departing employees over time.
END
WTI Holds Losses After Big Product Inventory Builds, US Crude Production Nears Record Highs
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 10:49 AM
Oil prices extended their recent decline this morning as concerns about global oversupply continued to weigh on sentiment.
Crude has been trapped in a tight $4-a-barrel range since the start of November, as oversupply concerns vie with geopolitical risks surrounding the flow of sanctioned Russian barrels into nations including India.
“I’m increasingly becoming a bit of a contrarian here, given the limited selling response to all the negative news,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank AS.
“The biggest risk to prices could be to the upside if next year’s oversupply is already priced in,” he added.
Overnight saw API report a large crude draw but sizable product builds…
API
- Crude -4.78mm (-1.7mm exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline +3.14mm
- Distillates +2.88mm
DOE
- Crude -1.812mm
- Cushing +308k
- Gasoline +6.397mm – biggest build since Dec 2024
- Distillates +2.5mm
US crude stocks fell last week but products saw notable builds (4th straight week) as Cushing inventories hover near ‘tank bottoms’…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude production picked up again to a new record high as rig counts remain near cycle lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices have stuck within a tight range in recent weeks as rising geopolitical risks amid Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and shipping counter rising global inventories of the fuel.
In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the EIA warned rising global production has outpaced demand and it expects inventories to continue rising by two-million barrels per day in 2026, pressuring prices.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/USA
Trump Warns Of ‘Severe’ Tariffs On Canadian Fertilizer If Needed
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Jennifer Cowan via The Epoch Times,
U.S. President Donald Trump says he is considering “very severe” tariffs on fertilizer imports from Canada as the United States readies a $12 billion aid package for farmers grappling with the repercussions of the ongoing trade war.
Trump mentioned the increased levy on Canada while responding to reporters’ questions at a Dec. 8 White House roundtable where he announced the tariff relief fund for U.S. farmers, who have been paying more for agricultural products like seed and fertilizer due to Trump’s global trade policies.
END
VENEZUELA/USA
F-18 Fighter Jets Flew Deep Inside Gulf Of Venezuela In Closest Approach Yet
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 08:55 AM
For the first time, two US Navy F/A-18 fighter jets flew deep into the Gulf of Venezuela, the body of water bordered by Venezuelan territory on three sides, in what appears to be the latest ultra-provocative show of force from Washington. Some reports say the jets lingered long in the airspace, circling the gulf for some 40 minutes.
The flyover happened Tuesday and appears the closest known approach by American aircraft to Venezuela’s coastline since the Pentagon began a major buildup in the Caribbean several months ago, which has also seen over 20 deadly drone and aerial strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats.
The F/A-18s only increased their presence in the southern Caribbean region following the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group. US B-52 bombers have also been flying over the area, deploying from deep within the United States.
A US defense official confirmed to the Associated Press that the jets entered the Gulf of Venezuela, dubbing the maneuver a “routine training mission” – but didn’t disclose whether the jets were armed.
According to Military Times, “Public flight tracking websites showed a pair of U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter jets fly over the Gulf – a body of water bounded by Venezuela and only about 150 miles at its widest point – and spend more than 30 minutes flying over water.”
The Navy fighters were accompanied by electronic warfare jets, and the group were broadcasting their positions, and so they were intended to be seen:
In addition to the F/A-18s, a pair of Navy EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets, with the callsigns Grizzly 1 and Grizzly 2, were also tracked flying orbits in the Caribbean just north of the Gulf of Venezuela. One of the Navy’s MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance drones also flew a mission further out in the Caribbean opposite Venezuela’s coastline at around the same time. It is highly probable that other U.S. military aircraft were also operating in the same broad area, but were not visible online.
The War Zone writes that “the pairing of F/A-18s with EA-18Gs positioned at a distance is precisely the configuration expected in real strike operations against targets in Venezuela.”
Meanwhile, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth informed congressional leaders Tuesday that he’s still mulling whether to release the complete footage of a Sept. 2 strike on a suspected drug-smuggling vessel that left two survivors dead, despite mounting pressure from lawmakers demanding transparency.
Hegseth delivered a classified briefing to top members of Congress alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior national security officials. When pressed over whether all Congressional members will be able to view the footage, Hegseth replied that the matter “still needs to be reviewed.”
end
VENEZUELA/USA THIS AFTERNOON
Wait until the Democrats hear of this: theft on the high seas!!
Gunboat Diplomacy Returns: US Seizes Oil Tanker Off Venezuela
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 02:10 PM
Update (1518ET):
President Trump confirmed to Bloomberg that U.S. forces intercepted and seized a tanker near Venezuela’s coast, saying further information will be provided soon.
* *. *
Gunboat diplomacy was on full display Wednesday afternoon after Bloomberg reported that U.S. forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned Venezuelan oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. This move underscores the Trump administration’s Monroe-2.0 posturing as Washington seeks to reassert control over the Western Hemisphere after years
Bloomberg cited sources who did not disclose the tanker’s name or the general area where U.S. military forces seized the vessel.
The move here is a foreign policy tactic known as gunboat diplomacy. It’s where the U.S. military has stationed warships, jets, bombers, and troops that are to push the Maduro regime into complying with U.S. demands.
On Tuesday, Trump told Politico that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s “days are numbered” …
Trump was asked whether the U.S. could send in troops on the ground. The president said, “I don’t comment on that.”
“I wouldn’t say that one way or the other,” he said, going on to criticize Maduro.
Polymarket odds for “US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026” surged on the news…
Simultaneously, the Pentagon has ramped up strikes on drug-trafficking vessels in waters near Venezuela and Colombia, killing at least 80 in the process. The Trump administration is hell-bent on dismantling the command-and-control structures of narco-trafficking routes that funnel illicit drugs into the U.S. and have contributed to the drug-death catastrophe that kills 100,000 Americans per year.
*Developing…
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1636 UP 0.0008 PTS OR 8 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE MOSTLY ALL RED
USA/ YEN 156.77 DOWN 0.024 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3312 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3855 UP 0.0009 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 9.03 PTS OR 0.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 106.55 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.19%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 336.13 PTS OR 1.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.03 POINTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.19 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 59.20 PTS OR 0.12%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4191.90
silver:$60.97
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.16 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.201 % UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.959% down 0 FULL POINTS AND 25/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.395 UP 1 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.330 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.573 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.868 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1638 DOWN 0.0010 OR 10 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.60 DOWN 0.204 OR YEN IS UP 21 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5240 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.218 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3843
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0633 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0626
TURKISH LIRA: 42.61 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.959 DOWN 0 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.395 UP 1 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.194% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.804 DOWN 1 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.615 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4201L44
SILVER AT 10;00: 60.99
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 12.52 PTS OR 0.14%
GERMAN DAX: UP 32.51pts or 0.13%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 29.82 pts or 0.37%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 28.00pts or 0.17%
Italian MIB: CLOSED down 109.14. or 0.25%
WTI Oil price 58,09 0.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 61.52 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.90 ROUBLE DOWN 2 AND 70/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.478 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.088 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1692 UP 0.0064 OR 64 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3377 UP 0.0074 OR 74 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.510 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.210 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.956 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.394 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.93 DOWN 0.865 OR YEN UP 87 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3779 DOWN 0.0076 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 76 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 59.01
Brent OIL: 62.68
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.144
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 PTS to 4.7836%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.534 DOWN 8 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.424 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.016 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.65 DOWN 89 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.60 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.75 DOWN 1 AND 05/100 roubles //
GOLD $4232.75(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 61.77 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 497.59 OR 1.05 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 107.53 PTS OR 0.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.69 DOWN 1.24 PTS OR 7.32.%
GLD: $ 389.05 UP 1.65 PTS OR 0.43%
SLV/ $56.07 UP 0.90 PTS OR OR 1.63%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 303.52 PTS OR 0.97%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid as Fed Cuts Rates, Launches ‘Not QE
WRAP UP;
Stocks and bonds bid on dovish Fed – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 04:23 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: Fed cuts rates as expected but with bigger support than anticipated; Powell leans net dovish, noting of increased downside risks to labour and job growth overstatement; US seizes oil tanker near Venezuela; US employment costs print slightly soft; US manufacturers reportedly pull back harder on parts and raw materials due to trade and tariff uncertainty; BoC holds rates as expected; China reportedly weighs NVDA chip purchase in an emergency meeting; Bytedance & BABA reportedly keen to place large NVDA H200 chip orders; Kazakhstan to raise oil exports; Chinese CPI comes in hot Y/Y as expected; EIA crude stock draw smaller than expected; GEV provide impressive update; EU set to fine GOOGL over Google Pay breaching EU rules.
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Employment Report (Nov), Swedish CPI (Nov), US Initial Jobless Claims (6 Dec, w/e). Events: SNB/CBRT Rate Announcement, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR. Speakers: SNB’s Schlegel; BoE’s Bailey; ECB’s de Guindos. Supply: Japan, Italy, US. Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, lululemon.
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MARKET WRAP
US indices and Treasuries ended the day with gains, while the Dollar was sold after a surprisingly dovish FOMC and Powell press conference (summary below). Briefly recapping, the Fed cut rates by 25bps to 3.5-3.75%, as expected, but in a dovish 9-3 vote split – Goolsbee and Schmid voted to leave rates unchanged, while Miran wanted a larger 50bps reduction. Heading into the meeting, as many as 4 hawkish dissenters were touted. In the following presser, Powell largely put more emphasis on the labour side of the mandate vs inflation, but he did acknowledge that rates are in a plausible range of neutral. Looking to January, he noted the Fed has not made a decision yet, they will wait and see how the data comes in, stressing there is a lot of data due to come. As a reminder, next week, we will see the October and November NFP, the November Unemployment rate, and the November CPI. On account of the aforementioned broad Dollar weakness, all G10 FX peers profited, with the CAD ultimately firmer following the BoC’s decision to hold rates at 2.25% in an expected decision, reiterating that the current rate is about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% as long as the economy and inflation evolve in line with projections. Oil saw slight gains, but had seen initial weakness in the wake of Kazakhstan announcing it is to raise oil exports via alternative routes to the CPC routes. However, upside ensued on reports, that were later confirmed, that the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Precious metals moved higher in response to the dovish Fed. Elsewhere, sectors were almost exclusively in the green, aside from Utilities, with Industrials the outperformer and buoyed by a stellar GE Vernova update.
NORTH AMERICA
FOMC ANALYSIS: Fed cuts rates, and vote split triggered a dovish market reaction. The FOMC cut rates by 25bps to 3.50–3.75% as expected, with a 9–3 vote split; Miran sought a 50bps cut, while Goolsbee and Schmid preferred no change. It reiterated data dependence, signalling that further adjustments will hinge on the evolving outlook, labour market conditions, inflation dynamics, expectations, and global and financial developments. Policy guidance was tweaked, changing the phrase “in considering additional adjustments” to “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments.” In its updated SEP, the Fed Funds projections are essentially unchanged, signalling steady expectations for a gradual return toward the longer-run rate. However, the 2025 dot plot composition shows six members projecting end-2025 rates at 3.75–4.00%, indicating that four non-voters would have voted to keep rates on hold at today’s meeting if they had voting rights. The Fed noted slower job gains and a slight rise in unemployment through September, with the December statement updating October’s labour-market phrasing by replacing “the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August” with “the unemployment rate has edged up through September.” Unemployment forecasts are only marginally firmer in the out-years, suggesting a slightly more resilient labour market. Inflation has increased since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated, while core PCE expectations have eased modestly, pointing to a marginally softer inflation path and slightly more confidence in disinflation over the forecast horizon. Economic activity is described as expanding at a moderate pace, with uncertainty around the outlook still high and downside risks to employment having risen recently. The Fed said reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will use shorter-term Treasury purchases when needed to maintain sufficient reserves. October’s balance-sheet guidance, “the Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” is removed; instead, December adds: “the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves.”
POWELL PRESSER: Overall, it was a net dovish press conference from Powell, particularly compared to the tone of the October press conference. Powell appeared more concerned about the labour market side of the mandate than inflation. Powell stressed several times that there are downside risks to employment, while saying it is a reasonable base case that the tariff effects on inflation will be one-time. He was optimistic on growth too, noting the baseline outlook would be solid growth next year as fiscal policy will be supportive, consumer continues to spend, and AI spending continues. When asked about why they cut today after a hawkish October press conference, he said there has been a gradual cooling in the labour market, and they think there is -20k payrolls per month, while inflation has come in a touch lower. He also suggested the overcount of payrolls is around 60k per month, while labour supply has come down sharply. He said it does not feel like a hot economy, and evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs. Some hawkishness was seen as Powell said they are well-positioned to determine adjustments to the policy rate, noting that rates are now in a plausible range of neutral, later describing policy rates as in the high end of neutral. He was quizzed about the guidance, noting that the “extent and timing” phrase points out that they will carefully evaluate incoming data. He also said the Fed is well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves, but they will see a great deal of data before January, so they have not made up their mind yet. He also said that with rates in a plausible range of neutral, the base case is still not for rate hikes.
BOC REVIEW: The BoC held rates as expected at 2.25%, reiterating that the current rate is about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% as long as the economy and inflation evolve in line with projections. It sees underlying inflation still around 2.5% before moving higher in the near term, likely due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Ahead, the central bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. Despite the last three job reports topping expectations, Macklem notes recent job data haven’t changed the BoC’s economic outlook, but are encouraging. BoC added that the job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. Moreover, the recent GDP beat was somewhat downplayed due to trade volatility. Macklem and the BoC anticipate GDP growth likely to be weak in Q4 before picking up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high. On the decision to cut in October, Macklem wrote that they agreed that a policy rate at the lower end of the neutral range was appropriate to provide some support for the economy as it works through this structural transition while keeping inflationary pressures contained. Hawkish 2026 bets were trimmed since the announcement, with ~29bps of hikes priced in by year-end (prev. 34bps), with the first 25bps hike now seen by December rather than October; accordingly, Canadian 2-year government bond yields fell. Rabobank remains sceptical as to how strong the Canadian labour market really is, and maintains the view that this signals an underemployment problem due to the decline in full-time employment being offset by increases in part-time employment. Rabobank expects the overnight policy rate to be at 2.25% throughout 2026.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (H6) SETTLED 4 TICKS HIGHER AT 112-07
T-notes bull steepen as Fed was more dovish than expected. At settlement, 2-year -7.9bps at 3.534%, 3-year -7.0bps at 3.578%, 5-year -5.8bps at 3.722%, 7-year -4.8bps at 3.920%, 10-year -4.3bps at 4.143%, 20-year -2.8bps at 4.753%, 30-year -2.1bps at 4.788%.
INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 1-year BEI +3.6bps at 2.695%, 3-year BEI -1.2bps at 2.419%, 5-year BEI -0.4bps at 2.242%, 10-year BEI 0.0bps at 2.252%, 30-year BEI -0.3bps at 2.230%.
THE DAY: T-notes bull steepened in the wake of the dovish FOMC and press conference. Going into the rate decision, Wall Street had largely been expecting a hawkish cut. However, it ultimately was more of a dovish cut. The vote split was more dovish than expected, with only two members voting to leave rates on hold (Schmid and Goolsbee), while Miran opted for another 50bps cut. Note, according to the 2025 dot plot, there were four non-voters who would have voted to keep rates on hold today. The dot plot medians were left unchanged throughout the forecast horizon, with the median pencilling in just one rate cut in 2026, unchanged from September. Meanwhile, inflation forecasts were lowered for 2026, while unemployment was maintained at 4.4%. The Fed did adjust guidance to signal a slowdown of the pace of rate cuts, by tweaking language to “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments” from “in considering additional adjustments”. Based on the vote split and positioning going into the FOMC, T-notes rallied across the curve in response to the decision and vote split. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell was clearly more dovish than in the October presser – appearing more concerned about the labour side of the mandate vs inflation, noting the base case is that tariffs will be a one-time effect. However, he was optimistic about growth. He also noted that rates are now in a plausible range of neutral, but towards the top end of neutral. He reiterated a data-dependent stance for decisions ahead, noting there is a great deal of data due between now and then. However, he did state that the Fed thinks payroll growth is at -20k per month, and official figures are overstating growth by 60k.
SUPPLY:
Notes
- US to sell USD 22bln of 30-year bonds on Dec 11th.
Bills
- US sold 17-week bills at a high rate of 3.610%, B/C 3.04x
- US to sell USD 85bln of 4-week bills (prev. 90bln) on Dec 11th.
- US to sell USD 80bln of 8-week bills on Dec 11th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Market Implied Fed Rate Cut Pricing: January 5.5bps (prev. 3.3bps), March 12.7bps (prev. 8.6bps), April 19.5bps (prev. 14.8bps)
- NY Fed RRP Op demand at USD 5.05bln (prev. 3.2bln) across 17 counterparties (prev. 10)
- NY Fed Repo Op demand at USD 0.001bln (prev. 0.107bln) across two operations.
- EFFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.89%), volumes at USD 85bln (prev. 84bln) on December 9th.
- SOFR at 3.93% (prev. 3.95%), volumes at USD 3.244tln (prev. 3.209tln) on December 9th
CRUDE
WTI (F6) SETTLED USD 0.21 HIGHER AT USD 58.46/BBL; BRENT (G6) SETTLED USD 0.27 HIGHER AT USD 62.21/BBL
The crude complex was choppy on Wednesday, settling green following the US seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela. On geopolitics, Zelensky said Ukraine and the US are to hold talks on a peace plan draft on Wednesday [today], and it is worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia has no intention of fighting a war with Europe, but Russia will respond if European forces are deployed in Ukraine. On the day, WTI and Brent saw downside throughout the European session to hit lows of USD 57.66/bbl and 61.35, respectively, and downside was aided amid reports that Kazakhstan is to raise oil exports via alternative to CPC routes, and that Kazakhstan is to raise oil exports via BTC by 58k tons. Elsewhere, in the weekly EIA data, energy saw a shallower draw than expected, against Tuesday’s larger-than-anticipated draw. Distillates and Gasoline both saw greater than forecasted builds, with overall crude production +38k W/W to 1.3853mln. Ahead of the Fed, oil prices gained after the US conducted a “judicial enforcement action on a stateless vessel” that was last docked in Venezuela, according to Bloomberg, citing a senior Trump administration official; further details were absent. In response to the Fed cutting rates as expected, but with a more dovish vote split than forecasted, prices were unfazed.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.67% at 6,887, NDX +0.42% at 25,776, DJI +1.05% at 48,058, RUT +1.32% at 2,560
SECTORS: Utilities -0.11%, Consumer Staples 0.00% (unch), Technology +0.05%, Real Estate +0.06%, Communication Services +0.13%, Energy +1.11%, Financials +1.13%, Health +1.45%, Consumer Discretionary +1.52%, Materials +1.77%, Industrials +1.84%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.16% at 5,709, Dax 40 -0.22% at 24,110, FTSE 100 +0.14% at 9,656, CAC 40 -0.37% at 8,023, FTSE MIB -0.25% at 43,465, IBEX 35 +0.17% at 16,763, PSI -0.89% at 8,019, SMI -0.09% at 12,919, AEX -0.35% at 944.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- AeroEnvironment (AVAV) profit light and cut FY EPS view.
- Amazon (AMZN) plans to invest more than USD 35bln in India by 2030 to expand AI capabilities and exports.
- DeepSeek is reportedly using banned NVIDIA (NVDA) chips in its race to build its next model, via The Information.
- EchoStar (SATS) upgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
- GameStop (GME) revenue missed.
- GE Vernova (GEV) lifted share repurchase authorisation to USD 10bln (prev. 6bln) and doubled quarterly dividend to USD 0.50/shr; FY25 rev. trending toward the upper end range and & raised FY25 FCF outlook.
- Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) have been accused of failing to block chips in Russian missiles, via Bloomberg.
- Mastercard (MA) raised quarterly dividend 14% to USD 0.87/shr & approved a new share repurchase programme of up to USD 14bln.
- Meta (META) reportedly plans a price hike for its virtual reality devices, via Business Insider, citing an internal memo. In other news, Zuckerberg reportedly directs a pivot away from open-source AI at Meta, according to Bloomberg, and Meta refined a new AI model using Alibaba’s (BABA) Qwen.
- PepsiCo (PEP) upgraded at JPM to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’.
FX
The Dollar Index was lower both before and after the Fed cut the FFR to 3.50-3.75% as widely anticipated. Dollar weakness accelerated on the unanticipated dovish vote split, meaning fewer FOMC voters were arguing for unchanged rates, with only 2 favouring to leave rates unchanged, against many expecting 4. The Fed argued downside risks to employment had risen, with the Fed statement acknowledging the move higher in the Unemployment Rate in September. Powell echoed the dovish theme in his press conference, arguing the job growth overcount is around 60k per month, and he does not feel like the economy is hot. Currently, DXY trades around lows of 98.586 from earlier 99.258 highs.
CAD was modestly firmer following the BoC’s decision to hold rates at 2.25% in an expected decision, reiterating that the current rate is about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% as long as the economy and inflation evolve in line with projections. CAD strength accelerated after the dovish Fed rate cut caused broad-USD weakness. Hawkish bets were trimmed following the BoC announcement, with both the CB and Governor Macklem downplaying the recent jobs data, arguing that job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and that economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued.
USD/CHF and EUR/CHF traded lower as CHF strength led G10 gains against the dollar ahead of the SNB’s quarterly rate announcement on Thursday. The SNB is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0.00% at Thursdayʼs meeting, with markets assigning a 97% probability to such a decision. However, a move into NIRP cannot be ruled out after a cooler-than-expected inflation report. Click here for the SNB Newsquawk Preview.
USD/CNH was flat following China’s Y/Y CPI rising 0.7% in November (as expected), its highest reading in 21 months. The third consecutive CPI acceleration was due to food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, +14.5%Y/Y.
USA DATA RELEASES
‘Most Divided’ Fed In 37 Years Cuts Rates; Restarts Balance Sheet Growth
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 02:00 PM
Tl;dr: The FOMC cut rates by 25bps to 3.50-3.75% as expected, with a 9-3 vote split; Miran sought a 50bps cut, while Goolsbee and Schmid preferred no change.
- It reiterated data dependence, signalling further adjustments will hinge on the evolving outlook, labor market conditions, inflation dynamics, expectations, and global and financial developments.
- Policy guidance was tweaked, changing the the phrase “in considering additional adjustments” becomes “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments.”
- In its updated Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed Funds projections were essentially unchanged, signalling steady expectations for a gradual return toward the longer-run rate. However, the 2025 dot plot composition shows six members’ projected rates at the end of 2025 at 3.75-4.00%, indicating that four non-voters would have voted to keep rates on hold at today’s meeting if they had voting rights.
- The Fed noted slower job gains and a slight rise in unemployment through September. Compared with October, the December statement updates the labor-market reference by replacing “the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August” with “the unemployment rate has edged up through September.” Unemployment forecasts are only marginally firmer in the out-years, suggesting a more resilient labor market.
- Inflation has increased since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Core PCE expectations have eased modestly, indicating a marginally softer inflation path and slightly more confidence in disinflation over the forecast horizon.
- Economic activity is described as expanding at a moderate pace, with uncertainty around the outlook still high and downside risks to employment having risen recently. The December SEP projects a stronger increase in 2026 GDP compared to the Sept SEP.
- The Fed said reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will use shorter-term Treasury purchases when needed to maintain sufficient reserves. October’s balance-sheet guidance, “the Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1″ is removed; instead, December adds new guidance: “the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves.”
* * *
Since the last FOMC meeting (on October 29th), The Fed has largely been flying blind from a macro data perspective (thanks to the government shutdown) with the sporadic ‘hard’ data outperforming while ‘soft’ data has shit the bed and alternative labor market insights remain mixed at best (and extremely lagged at worst)…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, it is labor market data that has ‘outperformed’ since the last FOMC (so the hawks have a point) while surveys and inflation data has faded (doves can point to)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold has been the biggest gainer since the last FOMC as bonds and crude oil plunged. Stocks and the dollar are basically unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds have been jawboned wildly since the last FOMC, tumbling on Powell’s hawkish bias (and plunging later on follow-on hawkish FedSpeak) only to surge back to a lock (100%) following Fed’s Williams dovish comments right before the blackout began…
Source: Bloomberg
Today, we also get a fresh set of Dots, which many expect to shift more hawkishly. As the chart below shows, the market is already dramatically more dovish than the ‘old’ Dots…
Source: Bloomberg
The number of dissents will be on many people’s watchlist with WSJ’s Fed Whsiperer, Nick Timiraos, noting that “as many as five of the 12 voting members of the Fed’s policy committee, and 10 of all 19 members, have signaled in speeches or public interviews that they didn’t see a strong case to cut. Of those, only one formally dissented from the central bank’s decision to cut rates in October.”
The market is expecting 3 or more dissents…
So, we have five things to watch in today’s Fed discussions: Rate-change (cut is a done deal, but then what), Dissents (record split), Dots (hawkish bias), Balance Sheet (QE begins?), Presser (hawkish?).
FOMC
As was 100% expected, The Fed cut rates…
- *FED CUTS BENCHMARK RATE TARGET RANGE TO 3.5%-3.75% IN 9-3 VOTE
But, also – as expected – there were dissents… the most since 1988
- Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the decision in favor of lowering rates by a half-point, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee dissented in favor of holding rates steady
The Fed admits they are flying blind…
- *FED: WILL CONSIDER EXTENT AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
- *FED REPEATS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT ROSE IN RECENT MONTHS
But the “Dot plot” of rate projections did not signal a much more hawkish trajectory:
The median official expected to lower rates by a quarter-point in 2026 and another quarter-point in 2027, the same as they projected in September
Balance Sheet buying begins:
- *FED SAYS IT WILL BEGIN TREASURY BILL PURCHASES ON DEC. 12
- *FED SAYS IT WILL BUY $40 BILLION OF TREASURY BILLS NEXT 30 DAYS
For the purists this is “Reserve Management Purchases”, for the non-purists, QE is back with us.
Finally, in a difference from the state of play into December 2024’s hawkish cut, we note that equity positioning into the Fed looked skewed toward expectations for a benign or mildly hawkish cut that leaves the high-beta rotation intact, with the SPX still contained in a wider trading range.
Implied, realized and vol-of-vol are all back at more normal levels after November’s turbulence, while correlations and the tail-risk indexes sit in the middle or lower end of recent bands. The SPX term structure was in gentle backwardation into the FOMC, with forward implied vols pointing to only a modest post-meeting decline due to the importance of next week’s CPI and jobs report data.
SPX options are pricing a +/-0.7% move for FOMC day, largely in-line with expectations ahead of the past 8 FOMC events (+/-0.8%).
Will we get a surprise?
On average, the S&P 500 has moved +/-0.6% during the last 8 FOMC meetings with realized moves coming lower than expectations during all events except the December FOMC (hawkish cut) which saw an outsized move (-2.9%) relative to unusually low expectations (+/-0.7%).
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
“This Is Bad”: First Brands Liquidation Looms As DIP Loan Collapses
Overview of the First Brands Group Crisis
The headline “This Is Bad”: First Brands Liquidation Looms As DIP Loan Collapses refers to a breaking financial distress story involving First Brands Group, a heavily leveraged auto parts manufacturer. Published today (December 9, 2025) on ZeroHedge, the article details the company’s rapid descent into potential liquidation after its Debtor-in-Possession (DIP) financing—a critical lifeline for bankrupt firms—fell apart. This marks a stark example of private equity-fueled overleveraging gone wrong in the automotive supply chain sector.
zerohedge.comKey Background on First Brands Group
- Origins and Growth: Founded as a modest Ohio-based auto parts supplier, the company was aggressively expanded through a series of acquisitions under Malaysian-born entrepreneur Patrick James. James, known for serial buyouts, transformed it into a sprawling conglomerate with billions in assets but even larger debt loads—reportedly around $5 billion in liabilities against a much smaller equity base.
- The Debt Spiral: Backed by private equity, First Brands loaded up on leveraged loans to fuel its expansion. This “Frankenstein” structure—stitching together disparate brands—left it vulnerable to rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and softening auto demand post-2024 EV slowdown.
- Recent Moves: James reportedly exited his role amid the turmoil, with allegations (unsubstantiated in the report) of funds being diverted. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in late 2025, seeking to restructure.
What Went Wrong with the DIP Loan?
- DIP Financing Basics: In bankruptcy, DIP loans provide short-term funding to keep operations running while reorganization occurs. They’re typically secured by the company’s assets and backed by lenders expecting a viable path to recovery.
- The Collapse: Lenders, including major banks and funds exposed to the original leveraged loans, refused to extend or roll over the DIP facility. Reasons cited include:
- Eroding Collateral Value: Auto parts inventory and plants are depreciating faster than anticipated amid industry headwinds.
- Lender Fatigue: With recovery prospects dimming (projected asset sales covering only ~30-40% of claims), creditors pulled support, triggering a “covenant breach” that accelerates liquidation.
- Timing: The failure came just weeks after a proposed $1.2 billion DIP package was negotiated, highlighting fractured creditor negotiations.
This isn’t just a funding hiccup—it’s a death knell. Without DIP cash, First Brands can’t pay suppliers, employees, or utilities, forcing an immediate shift to Chapter 7 liquidation proceedings.Broader Implications
- For the Auto Industry: First Brands supplies critical components (e.g., brakes, filters) to OEMs like Ford and GM. Liquidation could disrupt production lines, echoing the 2008 supplier crises but amplified by today’s just-in-time manufacturing.
- Private Equity Scrutiny: This saga underscores risks in the $1.5 trillion leveraged loan market, where “covenant-lite” deals have proliferated. Regulators and investors may push for tighter underwriting, especially as rates stay elevated.
- Stakeholder Fallout:Affected PartyPotential ImpactEmployees (~15,000)Mass layoffs; unpaid wages via bankruptcy claims.CreditorsHaircuts on $5B+ debt; senior lenders first in line for scraps.SuppliersPayment delays leading to their own insolvencies.InvestorsEquity wiped out; PE backers face reputational hits.
What’s Next?Court filings are expected imminently, with an emergency hearing likely this week to appoint a trustee. If liquidated, assets could fetch $2-3 billion at fire-sale prices, leaving junior creditors high and dry. For now, it’s a cautionary tale of hubris in high finance—proving that in leveraged loan land, the house always wins… eventually.
END
from AI and Deutsche Bank:
The “Real Negative Curveball”: A Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
The phrase “A Real Negative Curveball: What If The Fed’s Next Move Is A Hike” appears to reference a recent analysis from Deutsche Bank strategists, published amid the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 policy meeting on December 9-10. In it, they warn that after a rapid easing cycle—three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points since September, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%—the market’s rosy expectations for further cuts could unravel. Instead, the “next move” might be a reversal: a rate hike as early as mid-2026. This would indeed be a curveball, given the consensus for continued easing to support a softening labor market. But with inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target (core PCE at ~2.6% as of late 2025), looming fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration (e.g., tax cuts and tariffs dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill”), and a divided FOMC, it’s not as far-fetched as it sounds.Let’s break this down: the current setup, why a hike could happen, the potential fallout, and how to think about it as an investor or observer.The Current Setup: Easing Mode, But Cracks Are ShowingThe Fed has been in “risk management” mode all year, cutting rates aggressively outside of a recession—a rarity historically. September’s 50 bps slash kicked off the cycle, followed by 25 bps in October and (as widely expected today) another 25 bps in December, per CME FedWatch probabilities (~88% chance). This responds to:
- Labor market softening: Unemployment ticked up to 4.3% in August, with continuing claims at multi-year highs and job duration stretched to 24.5 weeks.
- Inflation cooling, but not enough: Headline PCE eased to 2.6% YoY in July, but core measures hover higher, and data delays from the government shutdown (October-November reports pushed to mid-December) leave officials flying partially blind.
- Divided FOMC: Chair Jerome Powell holds sway, but hawks like Boston’s Susan Collins and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack argue against more cuts, citing persistent inflation and easy financial conditions. Doves like former Vice Chair Lael Brainard push for preemptive easing to avoid a downturn. A December cut could pass with dissents—possibly even a tie—making Powell’s post-meeting rhetoric crucial for signaling a pause.
Markets are pricing in ~two more cuts in 2026 (first in June), but the Fed’s September dot plot penciled in just one. Powell has called a December cut “not a foregone conclusion,” emphasizing data dependence.Why a Hike Could Be the “Next Move”Deutsche Bank’s “negative curveball” hinges on policy rules (e.g., Taylor Rule) already suggesting rates are near neutral (~3.5%-4%) given sticky inflation and incoming fiscal boosts. Tariffs could add 0.5-1% to CPI in 2026, per estimates, while tax cuts and spending (projected $2-3 trillion deficit addition) fuel demand-pull inflation. Bond markets are sniffing this: 10-year Treasury yields rose post-October cut, and repo rates spiked amid liquidity strains from balance sheet runoff.Global parallels amplify the risk—futures now imply hikes as the next move for the ECB, BoC, RBA, and BoJ after brief easing pauses. In the U.S., a new Fed Chair (rumored Trump pick: Kevin Hassett) in May 2026 could accelerate this if perceived as dovish, ironically sparking inflation fears and yield spikes. As one X analyst noted: “Rates will rise as the bond market fears inflation and the Fed will be defenseless to stop it.”
| Scenario | Trigger | Probability (Market-Implied, Dec 2025) | Fed Response Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Continued Easing | Labor weakens further (unemployment >4.5%); inflation dips below 2.5% | ~70% for 50 bps total cuts in 2026 | High (dovish tilt) |
| Pause/Hold | Data mixed; tariffs inflate prices without recession | ~25% chance of no December cut | Medium (current divide) |
| Hike Curveball | Inflation reaccelerates to 3%+ on fiscal shocks; strong growth | <5% for hike by mid-2026, but rising | Low now, but 20-30% if tariffs bite |
The Fallout: Markets Get WhipsawedA hike would sting hardest where cheap money flows freely:
- Equities: S&P 500 up ~25% in 2025 on cut tailwinds; a reversal could trigger 10-20% pullback, echoing 2018’s hike-fueled selloff. Growth stocks (tech, EVs) and small-caps hit hardest, as higher rates discount future earnings.
- Housing: Mortgage rates (~6.5% now) could jump to 7.5%+, freezing affordability amid record home prices. Defaults rise if unemployment spikes.
- Bonds & Dollar: Yields surge (10Y to 4.5%+), crushing fixed-income; USD strengthens, pressuring EMs and exporters.
- Consumers: Borrowing costs up across credit cards, autos, and HELOCs—real pain for households already squeezed by “tariff-fueled inflation.”
On X, sentiment echoes this: “The next GFC is imminent. Hyperinflation will raise interest rates… economies will collapse.” But bulls counter: “The Fed may cut one or two more times… [a drop] can only come from a strong downturn.”How to Navigate ItThis isn’t a base case—expect a December cut and cautious 2026 guidance—but it’s a reminder to diversify beyond rate-sensitive bets. Tilt toward value stocks, short-duration bonds, and inflation hedges (TIPS, commodities). Watch Powell’s presser today: Hawkish dots or “higher for longer” language could preview the curveball. As Deutsche puts it, “Many big multi-asset selloffs… have coincided with Fed rate hikes.” In a policy-driven world, the real risk is assuming the easy money party lasts forever.
end
Mississippi Has The Highest Credit Card Delinquency Rate, Florida The Lowest
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 09:20 PM
The map, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, highlights how credit card delinquency varies widely across the U.S. in 2025.
These figures represent the share of credit card accounts that became 30 or more days past due from Q1 to Q2. The data for this visualization comes from WalletHub.
Southern States Lead in Delinquencies
The Deep South stands out with the nation’s highest delinquency rates. Mississippi tops the list at 37%, followed by Louisiana at 32% and Alabama at 31%.
These levels are far above the national norm and suggest elevated financial pressures, including lower median incomes and higher reliance on revolving debt. Several neighboring states—Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and South Carolina—also exceed 25%.
| Rank | State | Credit Card Delinquency (Q1-Q2, 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi | 36.69% |
| 2 | Louisiana | 32.11% |
| 3 | Alabama | 30.52% |
| 4 | Arkansas | 28.11% |
| 5 | South Carolina | 25.49% |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 25.43% |
| 7 | Texas | 24.77% |
| 8 | Tennessee | 24.62% |
| 9 | North Carolina | 24.19% |
| 10 | Kentucky | 24.07% |
| 11 | Indiana | 23.92% |
| 12 | West Virginia | 23.71% |
| 13 | Delaware | 22.76% |
| 14 | Georgia | 22.40% |
| 15 | Missouri | 22.26% |
| 16 | New Mexico | 21.37% |
| 17 | Pennsylvania | 21.08% |
| 18 | Michigan | 20.89% |
| 19 | South Dakota | 20.64% |
| 20 | Wyoming | 20.23% |
| 21 | Kansas | 19.76% |
| 22 | Arizona | 19.72% |
| 23 | Nebraska | 19.71% |
| 24 | Ohio | 19.66% |
| 25 | Maryland | 19.45% |
| 26 | Minnesota | 19.17% |
| 27 | Virginia | 19.09% |
| 28 | Nevada | 18.58% |
| 29 | Idaho | 18.42% |
| 30 | Wisconsin | 18.35% |
| 31 | Maine | 18.27% |
| 32 | Connecticut | 18.16% |
| 33 | Oregon | 17.87% |
| 34 | Montana | 17.17% |
| 35 | Alaska | 16.90% |
| 36 | Colorado | 16.85% |
| 37 | Illinois | 16.58% |
| 38 | New Jersey | 16.57% |
| 39 | North Dakota | 16.26% |
| 40 | New Hampshire | 15.59% |
| 41 | New York | 15.53% |
| 42 | Rhode Island | 15.21% |
| 43 | California | 15.08% |
| 44 | Washington | 14.99% |
| 45 | Utah | 14.94% |
| 46 | Hawaii | 14.90% |
| 47 | Massachusetts | 14.68% |
| 48 | Vermont | 14.67% |
| 49 | Iowa | 14.36% |
| 50 | Florida | 13.99% |
Midwestern and Northeastern States Remain More Stable
Most states across the Midwest and Northeast report delinquency shares between 15% and 21%. These levels reflect more stable household budgets and stronger credit profiles.
States like Iowa (14%) and Minnesota (19%) show some of the lowest delinquency rates, pointing to higher financial resilience.
Western States Show Mixed Patterns
The Western U.S. presents a more mixed landscape. California, Washington, Utah, and Hawaii all sit near the lower end at around 15%, suggesting relatively healthy consumer finances despite high living costs.
Meanwhile, states like Arizona and Nevada land closer to 19–20% in late payments.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The United States of Unemployment on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist
DR VICTOR DAVIS HANSON/CONRAD BLACK
Conrad Black: Trump’s Approach To Curbing Crime Is Proving Effective
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Conrad Black via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump’s campaign to reduce urban crime is fundamentally popular. The overwhelming majority of Americans oppose crime, particularly violent crime that threatens them in their homes or while engaging in daily activities on city streets and sidewalks.
Some Democrats continue to align themselves with individuals and groups broadly disapproved of by the public, including violent criminals who entered the country illegally and whose civil rights are defended on technical grounds prior to deportation. The same is true for disruptive university activists who block respected speakers and threaten Jewish students.
There is broad public support for Trump’s efforts to seal the southern border and reduce the number of illegal immigrants entering the country—from approximately 3 million annually under President Joe Biden to near zero today. Understandably, urban crime and illegal immigration are closely linked in the public’s mind. While the public supports the administration’s primary goals—to sharply reduce crime and completely end unlawful entry—the president is sometimes perceived as heavy-handed. A more refined approach could help secure the support these policies warrant.
The deployment of National Guard troops in Washington has been notably effective. Even the strongly partisan Democratic mayor, Muriel Bowser, thanked the president for their presence. Violent crime has declined by more than 50 percent, and petty crimes have dropped 40 to 50 percent. At the same time, the administration has begun restoring Union Station—a historic structure long plagued by vagrancy and drug use—revamping the Kennedy Center, and adding a grand ballroom to the White House, all reportedly without taxpayer cost. The president’s commitment to restoring Washington as a city of grandeur and civic pride is widely supported, both by Washingtonians and the public at large.
Meanwhile, some Democratic leaders in cities such as Chicago have accused the federal government of an “occupation,” suggesting it has no jurisdiction, despite Chicago being part of the United States. Such objections come as Metropolitan Chicago’s gun-related crime rate is reportedly 10 times that of similarly sized Toronto. Greater law-enforcement presence is clearly needed. However, the National Guard is a costly option, especially when guardsmen are deployed from out of state. For instance, guardsmen in Washington are from West Virginia, as Democratic governors of neighboring states declined to assist. Their deployment over four months has cost more than $200 million.
The National Guard has also been deployed to Los Angeles and other cities to contain riots opposing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Border Czar Tom Homan has stated that 74 percent of deportees have violent histories and pose a threat to public safety. President Trump has emphasized that ICE targets “the worst of the worst.” While these claims may be accurate, they’re not universally accepted and would benefit from clear substantiation.
Critics—including many in the national political media—allege that the administration is targeting law-abiding, family-oriented individuals who entered illegally years ago and have since become productive residents, while some dangerous individuals escape detection. Even if the administration’s numbers are correct, that still suggests that 24 percent of deportees, according to Homan, aren’t dangerous. These individuals often become the focus of sympathetic features in outlets such as The New York Times. As with tariffs and other complex policies, the administration would benefit from refining its enforcement strategy to transform it into a broadly accepted success.
Given the sharp increase in attacks on ICE agents, it’s reasonable for agents to wear masks and body armour and to move discreetly when detaining suspects. The president’s strong defence of ICE appears justified, provided enforcement efforts truly focus on serious offenders rather than longtime residents who have otherwise complied with the law.
The administration might consider a version of President Bill Clinton’s initiative to fund 100,000 additional police officers—provided they’re deployed to high-crime areas rather than low-risk districts or desk roles. A balanced combination of National Guard support and increased local policing might be effective if Democratic mayors, often resistant, can be persuaded to cooperate. If not, federal authorities may need to persist with guard deployments, but should require local governments to share the financial burden.
Less than a year into his presidency, President Trump is fulfilling his campaign promises and has broad public backing. It would be a political setback if minor adjustments in policy execution prevent his administration from securing unambiguous public support. He should take steps to prevent inflammatory comparisons—such as those likening of his administration’s approach to that of Nazi Germany’s—from gaining traction. Politicians making such remarks should be held accountable not only for the deterioration of major cities but also for perpetuating inflammatory rhetoric.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
END
KING NEWS
| The King Report December 10, 2025 Issue 7636 | Independent View of the News |
| Zelenskyy says Ukraine won’t cede territory to Russia Peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine have since hit a roadblock as the Trump administration insists that Kyiv cede the region in eastern Ukraine… (Rejects DJT’s peace plan) https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/zelenskyy-says-ukraine-won-t-214208420.html Trump says Ukraine should hold elections despite wartime prohibition: ‘People should have that choice’ https://trib.al/STm6g3E November NFIB Small Business Optimism 99, 98.3 consensus, prior 98.2 September LEI 0.3% as expected, prior revised to -0.3% from -0.5% September JOLTS Job Openings 7.658m October JOLTS Job Openings 7.67m, 7.117m expected Jobs Opening Rate 4.6%; Quit Level 2.941m, 3.15m expected; Quit Rate 1.8%; Layoff Rate 1.2% https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm During early NYSE trading, the DJIA was up 100+ points, but the DJTA and the NY Fang+ Index was modestly negative. META was down 1%. USZs were up 8/32 while precious metals were moderately higher. Silver hit a new high. Cryptos were down moderately. The dollar was modestly higher. During the 2nd hour of trading, the DJTA, the NY Fang+ Index, and cryptos turned positive. Silver hit a record high of 60.535. Buying for the Fed Day Rally and the expected rate cut had commenced. ESZs vacillated between moderate gains and being flat from the Nikkei opening on Tuesday until they spiked lower at 5:36 ET. After hitting a daily low of 6844.75 (-11.00) at 5:36 ET, ESZs quickly bounced back into positive territory and rallied to modest gains. ESZs broke lower at 8:28 ET and effectively made a double bottom of 6845.00 at 9:24 ET. Aggressive buying appeared for the Fed Day Rally and the expected rate cut appeared. ESZs jumped to 6868.50 at 10:02 ET. After the pro dump pushed ESZs down to 6854.50 at 10:48 ET, ESZs surged again, hitting 6870.75 5 minutes after the European close. The post-European close reversal pushed ESZs down to 6864.00 at 11:40 ET. The Noon Balloon created a double top at 12:05 ET (6782.50). ESZs then stair stepped down to 6844.50 at 16:00 ET. JP Morgan warned that it would incur higher-than-expected costs or $105B next year. This is about 9% more than analysts’ forecasts. JPM sank as much as 4.3% and forced the DJIA lower. Positive aspects of previous session The rally for Fed Day appeared early. Negative aspects of previous session The equity rally for Fed Day peaked near the 11:30 ET European close. ESZs hit a daily low at 16:00 ET. The DJIA turned negative near 12:35 ET. The DJTA was negative for most of the session. Silver hit a record high of 60.7462 at 14:37 ET; other precious metals rallied smartly, as did crypto. The US 10-year auction yield: 4.175%, which was the WI yield. USZs fell to -1/32 on the results. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why did equities decline on Monday & Tuesday? Does someone know what the Fed will say? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6847.62 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6864.92; 687.43 Trump kicks off affordability messaging tour (in PA) after GOP’s rough off-year elections “You know, tariffs are bringing us hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said, touting some of his early economic accomplishments. “I just helped our farmers out because they’re starting to do really well.” Trump blamed high prices on the Biden administration and said his policies will clean up the mess. “They caused the high prices,” Trump said. “We’re bringing them down. It’s a simple message. “… https://trib.al/l9J62oY @FoxBusiness: PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I have no higher priority than making America affordable again. That’s what we’re going to do.“ https://x.com/FoxBusiness/status/1998552639798390923 Unfortunately for DJT and his cult, duh Donald spent most of the first 11 months of his 2nd term trying to win the Noble Peace Prize, publicizing his new Grand Ballroom for the WH, shmoozing tech titans, bragging about tariffs, extolling the stock market, plus promoting cryptocurrencies, AI, and H-1B visas. The FT: Trump is choosing the broligarchs over his base – When historians assess this age of American populism, Silicon Valley’s plutocrats will surely be judged its winners Trump’s blue-collar base seems to be cottoning on… hardly a day goes by when he is not cloistered with one of his Silicon Valley allies. In addition to Musk, David Sacks, the White House AI tsar, and Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, are rarely far from the Oval Office. They get what they want… https://www.ft.com/content/8a2c87eb-dcab-43fb-9c26-5625aa93f3f9 @EricLDaugh: Two New Jersey leftists were just ARRESTED for threatening to HANG DHS Assistant Sec. Tricia McLaughlin. They wanted to TORTURE and kill her, and “SH00T ICE agents on sight.” THIS IS THE LEFT. It has to STOP! Emilio Roman-Flores is charged with unlawful possession of an assault weapon, possession of prohibited weapons, conspiracy terroristic threats, criminal coercion, threats, and cyber harassment. Ricardo Antonio Roman-Flores is charged with conspiracy terroristic threats. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1998458146256277853 Today is Fed Day and the long-awaited 25bp Fed Fund rate cut. If the Fed delivers the frantically awaited 25bp rate cut, the probability is high that the Fed will deliver a hawkish FOMC Communique and Fed Chair Powell could do the same. The absence of a Fed Week Rally so far, strongly implies that a critical mass of traders and operators are long and eager to unload to patsies. Unless the FOMC Communique and Powell are more dovish than expected a rally on a 25bp Fed rate cut is likely to be short lived. Expected economic data: Q3 Employment Cost Index -.9%; Nov Fed Budgett -$205.0B; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET ESZs are -6.00; NQZs are -46.75; Dec AU is +8.00; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:40 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6752; 100-day MA: 6609; 150-day MA: 6416; 200-day MA: 6204 DJIA 50-day MA: 46,956; 100-day MA: 46,070; 150-day MA: 45,01; 200-day MA: 44,071 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6840.51 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6712.74 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6840.24 triggers a sell signal GOP Rep Mace slams House GOP leaders in op-ed, claiming Pelosi was ‘more effective’ speaker than Republicans – “I came to Congress five years ago believing I could make a difference for my constituents, for South Carolina and for a country I love deeply,” Mace wrote in her piece. “But I’ve learned that the system in the House promotes control by party leaders over accountability and achievement. “No one can be held responsible for inaction so far too little gets done,” she continued. “The obstacles to achieving almost anything are enough to make any member who came to Washington with noble intentions ask: Why am I even here?… Here’s a hard truth Republicans don’t want to hear: Nancy Pelosi was a more effective House speaker than any Republican this century,” she said. “I agree with her on essentially nothing. But she understood something we don’t: No majority is permanent.” https://t.co/T76wqS3nTI Trump caught on hot mic bemoaning pace of confirmations: ‘I can’t appoint anybody’ “I can’t appoint anybody. Everybody I’ve appointed has had their time expire. Then they’re in default, then we’re losing,” he could be heard to say. Trump has previously urged the Senate to abandon its blue slip tradition of allowing the senators from a nominee’s state to unilateral veto any nomination, a suggestion that Republicans have rejected… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/trump-caught-hot-mic-bemoaning-pace-confirmations-i-cant-appoint-anybody Biden was warned his soft-on-immigration proposals would cause ‘chaos’ — but he ignored it, damning memo reveals – “A potential surge could create chaos and a humanitarian crisis, overwhelm processing capacities and imperil the agenda of the new administration,” Biden’s advisers wrote… https://t.co/sGXtux3axu Fox’s @PhilipWegmann: Trump directs Treasury Sec: Bessent to look into allegations that Rep. Ilhan Omar married her brother as part of an immigration fraud scheme. Donald J. Trump, the POTUS, is unseemly pimping Trump Watches via cheesy TV ads. @CWBChicago: Prosecutors say a Northwestern cardiologist was violently beaten in an elevator by a man hospital security recognized from “30 plus” other incidents this year. He’s been arrested by CPD 12 times in 2025. https://t.co/CPLNZyKGE1 Mamdani reveals why he appointed convicted armed robber to NYC transition team Mysonne Linen previously served seven years behind bars in state prison He wants to take experience and analysis from all New Yorkers into account in order to “build a city for each and every person.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mamdani-reveals-why-he-appointed-convicted-armed-robber-nyc-transition-team Fury as Kentucky child killer who slaughtered boy is released 9 years early for ‘good behavior’ — only to be quickly re-arrested https://trib.al/6NEzz4R | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Adam Schiff Laments Trump Wasn’t Jailed Sooner As DOJ Turns On Him
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 03:20 PM
Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,
Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., lamented that the Biden administration did not move more quickly to incarcerate President Donald Trump, suggesting that even more aggressive action could have thwarted his 2024 electoral prospects.
Schiff, who himself is facing a federal investigation into allegations of mortgage fraud, claimed in an interview with the New Yorker Radio Hour that had former Attorney General Merrick Garland acted sooner, “we might be in a very different place today.”
Schiff’s remarks came after podcast host David Remnick asked, “Do you feel that Merrick Garland moved too slowly, too cautiously?”
The senator replied, “I absolutely do. Yeah.”
Remnick then asked why Garland acted “so slowly,” adding, “What about his character or tactics or strategy led him to behave that way?”
Schiff then misleadingly claimed that Garland had been brought in to correct what Schiff viewed as partisanship in the first Trump administration.
These comments appear at odds with newly declassified documents that showed that the Biden-led DOJ and FBI undertook sweeping investigations targeting Trump and his allies after he left office in 2021.
The New York Times even reported that former President Joe Biden actively supported Garland taking action against Trump.
The Biden-led probe triggered 197 subpoenas against 430 Republican organizations and individuals. The subpoenas included phone records of at least 11 Republican lawmakers.
These records were later transferred to Special Counsel Jack Smith, whom Garland appointed to pursue the Trump investigation under the guise of independence.
Despite this, Schiff framed Garland’s actions as part of an attempt to restore credibility.
“The Justice Department in the first Trump was abused and made partisan, and he wished to restore the Department’s reputation for independence,” Schiff claimed.
“Now, what they did in the first Trump Justice Department is peanuts compared to today.”
Schiff continued, “But nevertheless, Merrick Garland wanted to restore the reputation of the Department for strict non-partisanship. And that made him very reluctant to pursue an investigation of the president, too reluctant.”
In conclusion, Schiff claimed that Garland’s reluctance allowed the Supreme Court time to issue a decision on presidential immunity.
“Ultimately that gave the Supreme Court the time it needed to drag things out further and make the case against Trump go away completely when it could have been brought to fruition. And we might be in a very different place today,” he stated.
Watch the remarks below:
end
we have too many leftish judges\
(zerohege)
Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Tosses Trump’s Order Halting Wind Energy Projects
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025 – 02:40 PM
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
A federal judge on Dec. 8 vacated President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that halted federal permitting and leasing for wind energy projects, saying it violated U.S. law.
U.S. District Judge Patti Saris of the District of Massachusetts ruled in favor of a coalition of state attorneys general from 17 states and the District of Columbia, which argued that federal efforts to halt authorization for wind energy projects violated the Administrative Procedure Act because the agencies failed to provide reasoned explanations for their actions.
rump’s order directs federal agencies to halt approvals and leasing for all new offshore wind power projects pending a comprehensive review.
In a 47-page ruling, Saris stated that the order’s indefinite suspension of wind energy project authorizations violates a statutory requirement that agencies proceed to conclude matters “within a reasonable time.”
“No permits have [been] issued since the wind order was promulgated, and the agency defendants acknowledge that they will not issue any permits at least until they complete the comprehensive assessment, for which there is no timeline,” the judge stated. “That action is contrary to law.”
The judge also noted that federal agencies failed to provide “a reasoned explanation” for halting wind project authorizations, even as they were carrying out the president’s directive.
“Given that the wind order constitutes a change of course from decades of agencies’ issuing (or denying) permits related to wind energy projects, the agency defendants were required, at minimum, to ‘provide a reasoned explanation for the change’ and to ‘display awareness that (they were) changing position.’ They failed to do so,” Saris stated.
Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, part of the coalition in the lawsuit, hailed the ruling as a “critical victory” for the states.
“Massachusetts has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into offshore wind, and today, we successfully protected those important investments from the Trump Administration’s unlawful order,” Campbell said in a statement.
New York Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the ruling and said there is a need to develop more energy sources, including wind energy, amid rising costs.
“I am grateful the court stepped in to block the administration’s reckless and unlawful crusade against clean energy,” she added.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended Trump’s directive, saying that offshore wind projects were given “unfair, preferential treatment” under the Biden administration while other energy sources faced burdensome regulations.
“President Trump has ended Joe Biden’s war on American energy and unleashed America’s energy dominance to protect our economic and national security,” Rogers said in a statement.
Trump has pushed to increase U.S. use of fuel and coal energy sources in a move to reduce reliance on foreign supply. On July 7, Trump signed an executive order to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy projects, citing their unreliability and dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains.
The order states that such renewable energy sources are expensive, compromise the nation’s electric grid, and threaten national security. It instructs the Interior Department to review and eliminate regulations that give preferential treatment to wind and solar projects.
END
dei gone mad!!
“Bud Light” Moment Hits Cracker Barrel: Stock Crushed, Traffic Slides, Guidance Slashed
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 – 01:25 PM
Cracker Barrel shares are lower in premarket trading after posting softer-than-expected quarterly sales and cutting full-year revenue and profit guidance. Customer traffic dropped more than anticipated, driven in part by backlash after the casual dining chain effectively “Bud Lighted” itself with a disastrous woke rebranding.
The rebranding …
… which was eventually reversed and the marketing ‘expert’ resigned, appears to have a lasting impact on sales.
First-quarter results swung to an adjusted loss of 74 cents per share versus a profit a year ago, slightly better than the Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue dipped 6% and missed forecasts, with comparable sales for both restaurants and retail declining more than expected.
Wall Street analysts were spooked by the 7.3% decline in customer traffic for the quarter.
Snapshot: First quarter results (courtsey of Bloomberg):
- Adjusted loss per share 74c vs. EPS 45c y/y, estimate loss/shr 79c
- Revenue $797.2 million, -5.7% y/y, estimate $801.1 million
- Restaurant comp sales -4.7% vs. +2.9% y/y, estimate -4.02%
- Retail comparable sales -8.5% vs. -1.6% y/y, estimate -6.5%
Ongoing traffic deterioration sharply reduced annual sales and profit guidance (courtsey of Bloomberg):
- Sees revenue $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion, saw $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, estimate $3.38 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
- Sees capital expenditure $110 million to $125 million, saw $135 million to $150 million
- Sees adjusted Ebitda $70 million to $110 million, saw $150 million to $190 million
In premarket trading, Cracker Barrel shares are down about 5.5%. As of Tuesday’s close, the stock has been cut in half since the August rebranding debut.
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying (courtsey of Bloomberg);
Piper Sandler (neutral, PT to $27 from $49), Brian Mullan
- “Unfortunately, the struggles that kicked off in August have continued at CBRL, with traffic in the quarter down 7.3% (better in the beginning of August, and then worse after that),” Mullan writes
- Traffic for the fiscal 2Q-to-date period is running down 11%, and management “materially” reduced its annual guidance
- Cracker Barrel is sticking with many of the turn-around efforts designed to help over the long-term, but the main takeaway from the 3Q report/conference is that “things remain pretty tough at the business in the here and now”
Citi (sell PT to $20 vs. $24), Jon Tower
- “The traffic slump spurred by the ill-fated logo change resonated through F1Q results, and, along with a softer restaurant backdrop, prompted a weaker start to F2Q and a FY26 guidance cut,” Tower writes
- In the near-term, the company is “mixing in tactical sales drivers,” like buy-one-get-one and holiday promos, that may “prove costly” to the P&L, and weaving in longer-term initiatives to “sustainably drive the top line and preserve profits.”
- Believes the stock will remain under pressure until traffic/sales show “sustained improvement, as out-year numbers remain a question mark”
Truist (buy, PT to $45 from $50), Jake Bartlett
- “Sales trends have not begun to recover from the 8/19 re- branding fiasco, or any recovery has been offset by macro pressures,” Bartlett writes
- Says Cracker Barrel is “taking the right steps” to boost traffic, with its focus on improved service and food quality
- This has been reflected in improving guest satisfaction scores and will eventually, he believes, be reflected in a traffic recovery
- Business investments, including adding value to the menu and retaining labor hours, are headwinds to FY26 margins, but should drive operating leverage in FY27
Cracker Barrel is a case study for every other casual dining chain: go woke, get crushed.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
What do you mean with “WE FINALLY ARE MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE SURPASSING THE $34.40 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, AND NOW TRYING TO SURPASS OUR LAST MAJOR HURDLE OF $50.00 SILVER AGAIN.” Haven’t we passed 50?
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