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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,339.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/18/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 12/22/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 22
323 C HSBC 88
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 5
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 145
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 11
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 635 576
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 9
709 C BARCLAYS 293
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 39
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 917 917
MONTH TO DATE: 34,572
JPMORGAN STOPPED 590/1899
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2025: 917 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 91700 OZ or 2.8522 TONNES
total notices so far: 34,572 contracts for 3,457,200 OR 107.533 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES:120 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.600 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 12,494 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 62.470 million oz
OUT OF THE SLV//
INITIAL STANDING FOR DEC: 49.33 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 460,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP _ PLUS ..850 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONDAY AND TUESDAY’S .485 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL EX. FOR RISK = 1.335 MILLION OZ)///STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.250 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 32.070 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HUGE 460,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + YESTERDAY’S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK // STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.25 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.985 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 29.6828 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 109.337 TONNES/
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, DEC CONTRACT AT 109.337 TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 144.95 TONNES//VERY SMALL THIS MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1431 CONTRACTS OI TO 155,909 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 0 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1431 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 0 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1431 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $1.13 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.175 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $1.13
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ASIA RESULTS; FRIDAY DEC 19
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.08 POINTS OR 0.36%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 192.48 PTS OR 0.75%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 500.00 PTS OR 1.02% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.07%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0408
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0363/ Oil DOWN TO 55.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 59.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0408 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0363:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6,422 CONTRACTS TO 484,610 OI DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.05 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4060). WE HAD VERY LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY (WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS FINISHED ON NOV 30). . IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT MASSIVELY HUGE TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING STILL THE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE .
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW GAINING FROM ITS LOW OI OF AROUND 418,000 TO NOW 497,421 AND NOW AMPLE ENOUGH FOR A RAID BY OUR BANKERS.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 10,482 CONTRACTS (OR 32.60 TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 0 OZ OR NIL TONNES OF GOLD. IF YOU NEED A HISTORY OF ALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR GOLD, I HAVE ARCHIVED ALL MY COMMENTARIES AND YOU CAN VIEW IT AT ANY TIME.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW DECEMBER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,492 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH DECEMBER/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 992 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK AND CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN EARLY DECEMBER.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 0.0 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.985 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 29.6828 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 109.337 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 39 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD.
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39 TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/DEC.//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 4060 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 4060 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /FEB 4060 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4060 CONTRACT. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 39 TONNES
WE HAD :
- VERY LITTLE LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + BUT DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- MONTH END SPREADERS WILL NOW BEGIN…
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//DECEMBER
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING WAS A SMALL SIZED 992 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP THURSDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING HUGE GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..ENOUGH FODDER FOR THE COMMENCEMENT OF A RAID WHICH WILL MIGHT HAPPEN TODAY AS FRIDAY’S ARE GENERALLY GOOD RAIDING DAYS.
.
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.985 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 29.6828 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 109.337 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
AN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING DECEMBER,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $9.05/ /)
WE HAD VERY LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ////.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX// WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!!
THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/ FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 3 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO DECEMBER:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 2638 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 63800 OZ OR 1.985 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 29.6828 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 109/337 TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.05
WE HAD A HUGE XXXX CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE .
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
DEC 19
DEC CONTRACT MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 64,237.686 oz (19998 kilobars) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0- ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 917 notice(s) 91700 OZ 2.8522 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 580 contracts 58,000 OZ 1.804 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 34,572 notices 3,457,200 0z 107.533TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRIES
i
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 64,237.686 oz
(19998 kilobars)
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 1//
out of Manfra: 22,473.649 oz customer to dealer acct
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER STANDS AT 1497 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1261 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1899 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 638 CONTRACTS FOR A QUEUE JUMP OF 63,800 OZ OR 1.985 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TO OUR PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS .THUS STANDING FOR GOLD IN DECEMBER INCREASES HUGELY TO 109.337 TONNES
JANUARY LOST 134 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3629 AS JANUARY BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAS A GOOD SIZED 8 TO 9 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING.
FEB GAINED 4391 CONTRACTS UP TO 351,092 CONTRACTS
We had 917 contracts filed for today representing 91700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 635 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 917 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 576 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (34,572 ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC ( 1497 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (917 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,515,200 OZ OR 109.337 Tonnes of gold
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (34,572 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1497 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (917)x 100 oz) which equals 3,442,400 OR 109.337 TONNES
new total of gold standing in DECEMBER is 109.337 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC ..: 109.337 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.
volume THURSDAY confirmed 258,811 fair
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,015,413.233 oz 62.687 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,005,922.369 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,298,561.931 or 600.266 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,707,360.428 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,283,148oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
537.57 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
DEC 19 2025
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Out of JPMorgan: 646.171.610 oz total withdrawal: 646,171.610 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex; 717,539.940 oz total deposit 717,539.940 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into CNT 495,269.350 oz total deposit: 495,269.350 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 120 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.600 million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 87 contracts (0.445 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 12,494 Contracts (62.470 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRY
i) Into Loomis ; 1,196,849.760 oz
total deposit 1,196,849.760 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan: 646.171.610 oz
total withdrawal: 646,171.610 oz
adjustments: 3
i) dealer to customer acct Brinks 1,307,255.200 oz
ii) dealer to customer acct CNT: 742,682.478 oz
iiiP customer to dealer Asahi 342,229.070 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 128,016 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 453,726Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC.
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER /2025 OI: 209 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 162 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 254 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE ACTUALLY HAD ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP OF 92 CONTRACTS OR 460,000 OZ
JANUARY GAINED 62 CONTRACTS UP TO 4249 CONTRACTS AS JANUARY NOW BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH
FEB GAINED 46 CONTRACTS UP TO 1398 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 120 or 0.6000 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 121,606 huge//
AND NOW DECEMBER. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 12,494 X5,000 oz = 62.470 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (209) AND the number of notices served upon today (120 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DECEMBER 2025 contract month: (12,494) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(209) minus number of notices served upon today (120)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC.contract month equating to 62.915 MILLION OZ + 850 MILLION OZ FOR DEC ‘S FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN TODAY’S SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .485 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK; 1.335 MILLION OZ: THUS WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
NORMAL STANDING: 62.915 MILLION OZ
PLUS 1.335 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/2 OCCASIONS
New total standing: 64.250 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 128.616. million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 190.134/453.726million. 41.94%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $39.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.69 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.69 TONNES
DEC 15/WITH GOLD UP $10.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 105.12 TONNES
DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.83 TONNES
DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $85.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.82 TONNES
DEC 10/WITH GOLD UP $85.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.82 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $18.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.11 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.58 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.000 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $97.55TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.93 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.80.TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.64 TONNES
NOV 12/WITH GOLD UP $97.70.TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $114.40TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.06 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1042.06TONNES
NOV 6//WITH GOLD UP $0.30TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 5//WITH GOLD UP $32.50TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT1038,63TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $50.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 0F 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.78TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1052.54 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP $2.06 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP $2.93/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.36 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $.07/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.36 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 56.360 MILLION OZ //
DEC 15/WITH SILVER UP $1.62/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 635,000 INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.720 MILLION OZ //
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.30/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.085 MILLION OZ //
DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP $3.52/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.537 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.085 MILLION OZ //
DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP $2.41/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.179 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.828 MILLION OZ //
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.497 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.007 MILLION OZ //
DEC 5/WITH SILVER UP 0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.448 MILLION OZ //
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP $0.36 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489..283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.451 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.283 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.08 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.722 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.832 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 12/WITH SILVER UP $2.59 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP $2.05 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE SLV: . /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.22 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.54 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.110 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.67TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 713,000 OZ FROM THE SLV / ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,650 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 515.000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
Gold and silver march higher
Soaring silver’s upwards march is set to continue, given the ongoing systemic squeeze. Furthermore, gold threatens to make new highs, exacerbating a silver pricing crisis.
| Alasdair MacleodDec 19∙Paid |
The background to a developing market liquidity crisis in derivatives is signalled by higher precious metal prices. It is a combination of liberation from long-term price suppression (silver, platinum, palladium, copper) and a rapidly deteriorating inflation outlook being signalled by gold.
Central bankers have a history of mismanagement of their currencies, so their current guidance that inflation is a receding problem could not be more wrong.
Gold and silver continued to rise this week but at a more moderate pace. In European trade this morning, gold was $4331, up $31 from last Friday, and silver at $66.05 is up $4.10 on the week. Volumes were moderate on Comex, but open interest in silver barely changed, while it increased by about 30,000 contracts in gold on preliminary figures.
The next chart shows gold’s open interest relative to the price:
The level of open interest tells us that whatever chartists might say, gold is far from overbought. Yes, there has been a recent increase in speculative interest, perhaps reflecting dying hopes of a more prolonged and deeper correction after the all-time highs in late-October. But the principal price driver is a realisation in the bullion banks that the outlook is for higher prices and that they must not be short.
While there is some physical liquidity in gold it is not the case with silver, which is our next chart:
Despite the price soaring higher and even hitting an all-time high of $66.85 on Wednesday and trading at over $68 in Shanghai, Comex open interest remains subdued. In other words, there is very little speculative demand generated by persistent moves into all-time highs. Open interest began declining in mid-June when the price was $36. Why speculators are missing out on silver’s obvious price momentum is a mystery, even when it is obvious that there is no physical liquidity anywhere.
Effectively, silver is bid only, meaning that there is no price available to buyers. The shorts are simply refusing to sell and have reached their credit limits. The consequence for the gold silver ratio has been dramatic:
Will it break down through the low at 64 in January 2021? The answer is almost certainly yes. Lease rates in London are running at 7%, and Comex is close to backwardation. And with China restricting physical silver exports in the new year with a new licencing scheme, this short squeeze is far from over.
Anecdotal reports of long queues of retail buyers in places like Singapore tell us that Asian savers are putting an additional squeeze on industrial demand worldwide. And there is a noticeable trend for silver prices to rise during Asian trading hours relative to European and American times.
Turning to gold, it appears to be a more orderly market with prices now rising along with open interest on Comex. Increasingly, momentum traders appear to be buying into the rising trend and appear increasingly confident of new highs in the coming weeks. It will continue to be important for bullion banks to maintain level books, short on Comex and long in London. ETF demand is also likely to pick up. These are the factors leading to gold prices rising in a more orderly fashion perhaps than in scarce silver.
At least, that’s the theory and a conventional explanation. But the reality is less to do with whether gold is in a bull market, and more to do with declining purchasing powers for currencies. The major central banks, with the possible exception of the Bank of Japan are telling us that inflation will be a diminishing problem in 2026, citing prospects of economic recession which must be avoided at all costs. But these are the “experts” which experience tells us are always getting it wrong.
It is hardly surprising, when the Fed’s FOMC and the BoE’s MPC almost never cite money supply as a major factor determining prices on a six-to-nine-month view. Gold, which is real money while fiat currencies depend on their value mainly on faith tells a different story:
The collapse in purchasing power for these major currencies since the turn of the century has been alarming. It’s not just the dollar. Over 25 years the worst performing currency is the Japanese yen, ¥100 yen in 2000 now worth only ¥4.70. This is followed by sterling, £100 now worth only £5.60, $100 becomes $6.95, and €100 becomes €7.95.
Worryingly, the downward trend for all these currencies is accelerating, pointing to an imminent crisis. It is the background for a very difficult 2026, with current inflation forecasts wildly optimistic. Do not be surprised to see inflation close out 2026 significantly higher than the post-covid inflation spike, which no central banker expected.
But then so long as these currencies’ central bankers believe that gold is a pet rock and just an historical oddity, then we shouldn’t be surprised that they always get inflation prospects wrong.
.3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS / AND TODAY;S 253
OFF UNTIL JANUARY
5. COMMODITY REPORT//SILVER/SILVER LEASE RATES: TODAY AROUND 8.0%
Silver lease rates
ROBERT LAMBOURNE TO ME;
Harvey,
Having just read your note this morning, I have just been checking silver lease rates in Shanghai and London. Rates in both markets remain elevated according to the information I’ve had which has been double checked with two AI programs.
One month annualised rates in Shanghai are c6.4% and in London they are c8%. In Shanghai the rates reduce slightly for daily or weekly leases and in London the 6 month lease rate is c6.8%.
You know far more than me, but to try a big short push now looks like a high risk move. The Shanghai rates are referred to as a major sign of shortages with available supply of physical silver seemingly limited.
Thanks for your reporting,
SILVER
They Got Caught: The $6 Billion Silver Short Just Collapsed | Yanis Varoufakis.
Yanis is the former Greece Finance Minister
A topical video which will increase the number of people who understand that there is a supply problem in silver, certainly in Europe, where Varoufakis is popular for his anti EU rhetoric.
end
you must view
ASIA RESULTS; FRIDAY DEC 19
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.08 POINTS OR 0.36%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 192.48 PTS OR 0.75%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 500.00 PTS OR 1.02% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.07%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.0408
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0363/ Oil DOWN TO 55.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 59.53 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0408 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 7.0363:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0408
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0363
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 192.40 PTS OR 0.75%
2. Nikkei closed UP 500.00 PTS OR 1.02%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.32 /// EURO FALLS TO 1.1715 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +2.024 // UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.26…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.426 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.8838/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.532 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.311
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.472
3j Gold at $4327.80 Silver at: 66.08 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $54.00//AFTER 50.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 33/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.38
3m oil (WTI) into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.26 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.024% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.3422 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7948 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9313 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.143 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.832 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.473 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.81 UP 10 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.5140 UP 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2140 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.412DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2,967 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Ahead Of Record $7 Trillion Opex, Yen Tumbles After BOJ Rate Hike
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 08:29 AM
Stocks look set toclose out a choppy week on a steady note, building on Thursday’s gains, spurred by cooler inflation that backs the case for lower borrowing costs. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures were 0.1% higher while Nasdaq 100 contracts were up 0.2% after the WSJ reported that OpenAI is set to raise $100BN in fresh capital (from sov wealth funds) removing near-term funding pressures across the AI sector. In premarket trading Oracle is up 6%, off session highs, with the rest of the Mag 7 complex mostly higher. In a risk-on set-up, bitcoin is also higher, while Treasuries are down. Gold is hovering near its highest ever, and a separate Goldman team reckons its record-setting rally still has legs, and could push the yellow metal above $5000. US economic calendar includes November existing home sales, December University of Michigan sentiment (10am), and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed’s Williams is scheduled to appear on CNBC at 8:30am.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1%, Tesla +1%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.1%). Cloud infrastructure stocks including CoreWeave (CRWV) are staging a rebound after the sector sold off on financing concerns in the AI supply chain. CoreWeave climbs 5%.
- AGCO (AGCO) slips 1% after Barclays cut the recommendation on the agriculture equipment company to underweight, saying that tariffs threaten its ability to meet margin estimates.
- Defense stocks remain in focus after European Union leaders reached an agreement to loan Ukraine €90b ($105b) for the next two years, aiming to strengthen Kyiv’s hand at the negotiating table and keep the war-torn country afloat.
- KB Home (KBH) falls 5% after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter profit missed analysts’ estimates. The mid-point of the outlook range for fiscal 2026 housing revenue also lagged expectations
- Nike (NKE) slumps 11% after the sportswear retailer’s third-quarter guidance disappointed investors, with its turnaround hampered by weak sales in China and the Converse brand.
- Oracle (ORCL) is 5.6% higher after TikTok told employees that its parent company, ByteDance, had signed binding agreements to create a US joint venture majority owned by American investors, led by the cloud computing giant.
- WhiteFiber (WYFI) gains 20% following the announcement of a 10-year co-location agreement between its subsidiary Enovum Data Centers Corp. and Nscale Global Holdings.
1 b European opening report
NQ rebounding following another tech-led selloff; DXY firmer aided by weaker Yen following BoJ hike – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 06:26 AM
- US President Trump’s administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.
- European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures are broadly firmer, with outperformance in the NQ.
- DXY is firmer, whilst the JPY underperforms; the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps as expected, though Governor Ueda avoided explicitly guiding future policy.
- Global fixed benchmarks generally pressured but with price action fairly muted.
- Crude benchmarks trade muted as EU agree on Ukraine loans; XAU trades rangebound after failing to break above USD 4350/oz.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov). Speakers include ECB’s Lane & Fed’s Williams.
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TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump told NBC “We’re making so much money with tariffs”, people would start getting the payments “very soon”. “Within the next few days, it’ll all be out”.
- US President Trump administration initiated multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- China’s Commerce Ministry urges India to correct wrong practice on Telecom tariffs. China files WTO case against India over ICT tariffs and Photovoltaic subsidies.
- China’s Commerce Ministry has launched an investigation into some rubber products from the US, South Korea and the EU. Adds to keep anti-dumping duty rate of up to 222%. Will terminate anti-dumping measures against UK rubber imports from December 20th.
- EU’s von der Leyen said “we have reached out to our Mercosur partners and agreed to postpone slightly the signature”, adds she is confident EU has sufficient majority to approve the Mercosur trade deal.
- French President Macron said work must continue on EU-Mercosur deal after delay, adds safeguards clause must be adopted by EU Parliament and accepted by Mercosur nations. He said, with new safeguard and mirror clauses to be implemented in January, it would be a “new” Mercosur-EU deal. France asked for CAP budget to be maintained.
- Chinese auto parts company Wangxiang agrees to pay USD 53mln to resolve US Justice Department lawsuit over imported components.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened around the unchanged mark, and have remained on either side of the mark since.
- European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Autos leads, followed by Insurance whilst Consumer Products lags; the latter pressured in tandem with post-earning losses in Nike (-10.5%).
- US equity futures are trading with a mild upward bias, with the NQ marginally leading as Oracle (+5.7%) gains in the pre-market after TikTok US reaches an agreement on an Oracle-led US ownership plan.
- TikTok has signed a deal to sell its US entity to a joint venture controlled by American investors, according to Axios. The TikTok agreement is set to close on January 22. Oracle (ORCL), Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX will collectively own 45% of TikTok’s US entity. Nearly one-third of the TikTok US will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors, and nearly 20% will be retained by ByteDance.
- Capital One (COF) reportedly concerned about AI costs rising via cloud computing relationship with AWS (AMZN) and may be looking for alternatives, via Business Insider citing an internal Nvidia (NVDA) memo.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY is mildly firmer and trades at the upper end of a 98.41 to 98.70 range. Really not much driving things for the USD this morning, and with the upside largely facilitated by the JPY weakness. On that note, the BoJ raised rates by 25bps to 0.75% as expected. The decision was unanimous, and it stated that interest rates are expected to remain at significantly low levels, and the bank will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. The presser thereafter, spurred another bout of pressure in the JPY where Ueda avoided explicitly guiding markets towards another rate hike. Though he did highlight that the BoJ will conduct market operations swiftly, under exceptional circumstances in market. Interesting comments from the Governor came as he stated that several BoJ members mentioned that recent JPY weakness may affect prices going forward, adding that this warrants attention, given some believe that it could be affecting inflation. This spurred some very slight strength in the JPY at the time, which later pared.
- EUR is essentially flat and trades within a 1.1704 to 1.1728 range. Markets have had a slew of ECB speakers to digest this morning, but really not adding much to the agenda. ECB’s Kocher suggested that they are where they want to be on rates, a comment reiterated by Sleijpen.
- GBP is also flat, within a 1.3364 to 1.3387 range. Traders seemingly taking breather following the upside seen in the prior session, following a hawkish cut at the BoE. Since, Governor Bailey has provided some commentary. On Thursday he said that he is “very” encouraged by the process in returning inflation to target; comments which were largely reiterated once again earlier this morning.
FIXED INCOME
- JGBs began the overnight session on a slightly firmer footing, but then came under marked pressure after the BoJ policy decision, where the Bank hiked rates by 25bps as expected. The decision was unanimous, with the accompanying commentary reiterating that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. Bond traders appear to be focused on the BoJ’s comments related to higher wages heading into the new year – and ultimately on remarks that the Bank will continue to raise rates in line with expectations. Perhaps focus for JGBs focus on the fiscal side of things, with the BoJ seemingly waiting for economic developments, which will be subject to volatility under PM Takachi’s cabinet.
- USTs traded rangebound throughout the overnight session and have continued to trade sideways throughout the European morning. Currently lower by a handful of ticks and within a 112-17+ to 112-23 range. Ahead, US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.
- Bunds and Gilt action has also been exceptionally lacklustre; currently holding a slight downward bias, within a 127.16 to 127.52 and 90.94 to 91.20 range, respectively. A few ECB speakers this morning, but not really any pertinent commentary thus far; Kocher reiterated that interest rates are at a good place. Back to the UK, Gilts mildly underperform – continuing the post-BoE hawkish move seen in the prior session. Some remarks from BoE Governor Bailey earlier who suggested that he is confident that inflation will be close to target by late spring, giving a good reason to expect a bit more downward path on rates. Ultimately, no move in Gilts on the remarks.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks remain contained in tight ranges as the European session gets underway amid a lack of crude-specific newsflow. WTI oscillates in a USD 55.67-55.99/bbl range while Brent holds below USD 60/bbl comfortably as European trade continues. Recent comments via US President Trump, who said that “I do not rule out a war with Venezuela”, according to NBC, had little impact on the complex.
- Spot XAU saw initial downside at the start of the APAC session, continuing the reversal lower after failing to hold beyond USD 4350/oz during Thursday’s US session. XAU fell to a trough of USD 4310/oz and since, remains in a c.USD 40/oz band throughout the European morning.
- 3M LME Copper lead the gains across the metals complex as the risk tone stateside rebounded, which boosted Asia-Pac equities. The red metal opened unchanged but gradually rose, in line with APAC equities. This helped 3M LME Copper break Thursday’s high of USD 11.79k/t and continue to a peak of USD 11.83k/t as the European session gets underway.
- Phillips 66 (PSX) reported emissions event at Sweeney refinery and petrochemical complex in Texas on December 17th.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Bundesbank cuts growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6% (prev. 0.7%) and raises 2026 inflation forecast for Germany to 2.2% (prev. 1.5%). Nagel: “Starting in the second quarter of 2026, economic growth will strengthen markedly, driven mainly by government spending and a resurgence in exports.” and adds that “….while progress will be subdued initially, it will then slowly pick up.”.
- French Prime Minister Lecornu said parliament will be unable to vote on a budget for France before the end of the year. Starting on Monday, he will meet with key political leaders to consult with them on the steps to be taken.
- Joint Committee from French National Assembly and Senate cannot reach compromise text on 2026 budget, according to a Committee member.
- Swedish Think Tank NIER sees 2025 GDP at 1.6% (sept. fcst. +0.9%), 2026 GDP 2.9% (sept. fcst. 2.6%).
- UK Trade Minister Bryant confirms a hack of Government data.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK Retail Sales MM (Nov) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -0.9%).
- UK Retail Sales YY (Nov) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.6%).
- UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY (Nov) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 1.6%).
- UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Nov) 11.653B GB vs. Exp. 10.0B GB (Prev. 17.434B GB, Rev. 21.189B GB).
- UK PSNCR, GBP (Nov) 10.293B GB (Prev. 20.825B GB, Rev. 20.460B GB).
- UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -1.0%, Rev. -0.8%).
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) -17.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -19.0).
- Italian Industrial Sales YY WDA (Oct) 1.7% (Prev. 3.4%).
- Italian Industrial Sales MM SA (Oct) -0.5% (Prev. 2.1%).
- Italian Consumer Confidence (Dec) 96.6 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 95.0).
- Italian Mfg Business Confidence (Dec) 88.4 vs. Exp. 89.3 (Prev. 89.6, Rev. 89.5).
- French Producer Prices MM (Nov) 1.1%.
- German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan) -26.9 vs. Exp. -23.2 (Prev. -23.2, Rev. -23.4).
- German Producer Prices YY (Nov) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -1.8%).
CENTRAL BANKS
BoJ
- BoJ raised rates by 25bps to 0.75%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated interest rates are expected to remain at significantly low levels and will continue to raise policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.
- BoJ Governor Ueda (post-policy press conference) said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weakness. Will make a decision on rate hike after checking the impact on the economy. Will conduct market operations swiftly, under exceptional circumstances in market. Delaying a rate hike could force a significant hike later. There is still some distance to lower the limit of neutral rate estimate. Several BoJ members mentioned that recent JPY weakness may affect prices going forward, and warrants attention. Members suggested that the weak JPY is possibly affecting underlying inflation.
- Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they respect the BoJ’s decision but they need to be mindful of economic outlook.
- Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said FX is affected by various factors, determined at markets. Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency, including long-term yields.
Other
- BoE Governor Bailey said he is confident that inflation will be close to target by late spring, giving a good reason to expect a bit more downward path on rates.
- ECB’s Escriva says there are no reasons for any change in interest rates in any direction.
- ECB’s Sleijpen says policy is in a good place but we must maintain a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.
- ECB’s Muller said it is too early to speculate what will happen in six months, imagines a scenario that weaker growth and further disinflation could justify more easing but the opposite could also be imagined, via Econostream.
- ECB’s Kocher said they have not decided what course to take on rates, when asked if there are no more rate cuts coming. Rates could be cut or raised, depending on developments.
- ECB’s Rehn said outlook for growth and inflation remains highly uncertain due to trade war and geopolitical tensions. Reiterates meeting-by-meeting approach and ECB maintains full freedom of action and optionality.
- ECB’s Kocher said there are many risks to growth and inflation to the up and downside. said they want to keep all options open to be able to react to the volatile situation. They are where they want to be on rates.
- ECB Wage tracker suggests lower wage growth and gradual normalisation of negotiated wage pressures in 2026. ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Homeland Security Secretary Noem said at President Trump’s direction, she is immediately directing the USCIS to pause the DV1 program.
- US President Trump to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin said we do not see Ukraine being ready for talks, ready and want to end the conflict via peaceful means. Continue to create a safe zone on the border with Ukraine.
- Belarus said “We are preparing to start the combat shift of the Russian Oryshnik missile system”, via Al Arabiya.
- Russia’s Dmitriev said regarding EU summit decision that it was a ‘major blow to EU warmongers led by failed Ursula’ and voices of reason in the EU blocked the illegal use of Russian reserves to fund Ukraine.
- EU’s Costa said leaders agreed to roll over sanctions against Russia, adds Ukraine will only repay EU loan once Russia pays reparations and the EU reserves its right to make use of the immobilized assets to repay loan.
- German Chancellor Merz said Ukraine will receive an interest-free loan of EUR 90bln with these funds sufficient to cover military and budgetary needs for the next two years, and the EU will keep Russian assets frozen until Russia has compensated Ukraine. said: We expressly reserve the right to use Russian assets for repayment if Russia fails to pay compensation in full compliance with international law.
- EU’s Costa said we have a deal to finance Ukraine, and the decision to provide EUR 90bln of support to Ukraine for 2026-2027 was approved.
- EU official said it seems there is the possibility of unanimity to use headroom of EU budgets to provide funding for Ukraine. EU leaders want work to continue on the technical and legal aspects of the instruments establishing a reparations loan.
- EU considers using joint debt to loan up to USD 106bln dollars to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.
- European Council President Costa proposed to EU leaders to address Ukraine’s immediate pressing financial needs through an EU borrowing solution, according to two EU diplomats.
- Russia’s President Putin says US President Trump is making frank efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine. Says Russia has been asked to make compromise on Ukraine, in which Russia agreed to. The ball is on the West and Ukraine’s court.
- Ukraine has hit Russian shadow fleet tanker in the Mediterranean sea for the first time, according to Reuters citing SBU source. SBU’s aerial drones hit the Qendil vessel, causing critical damage. However, vessel was empty at the time of the attack.
MIDDLE EAST
- Contacts between Israel and Syria have not made much progress, according to Al Arabiya quoting US sources.
- Germany’s Competition Authority approves the merger of Palo Alto (PANW) and Israel’s Cyberark software.
- US ambassador to Israel said the US is not considering supplying Turkey with F-35 jets (LMT), which is not on the table under current US laws, via Sky News Arabia.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little firmer this morning and trades just shy of the USD 88k mark, whilst Ethereum outperforms, but still below USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ, which unsurprisingly hiked rates for the first time since January.
- ASX 200 was underpinned by outperformance in tech and financials, but with gains capped as mining, resources and materials sat at the other end of the spectrum.
- Nikkei 225 rallied amid tech strength and with some banks supported as yields gained amid the widely-expected BoJ rate hike, in which the central bank raised its key rate by 25bps to 0.75%, which is the highest in 30 years.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood amid tech strength, and after the PBoC continued to opt for a double-pronged liquidity operation, while it was also reported that TikTok signed a deal to sell its US entity to a joint venture controlled by American investors.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said will consider fiscal sustainability to some extent in compiling next fiscal year’s budget, adds aim to boost market confidence by lowering debt to GDP ratio.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese FDI (YTD) (Nov) -7.5% (Prev. -10.3%).
- Australian Housing Credit (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Australian Private Sector Credit (Nov) 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%).
- New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Dec) 73.6% (Prev. 67.1%).
- New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Dec) 60.9% (Prev. 53.1%).
- Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%).
- Japanese CPI Index Ex Fresh Food (Nov) 112.5 (Prev. 112.1).
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Nov) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%).
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Nov) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%).
- Japanese National CPI YY (Nov) 2.9% vs Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%).
- Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Nov) 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%).
- New Zealand Exports (Nov) 6.99B (Prev. 6.5B, Rev. 6.44B).
- New Zealand Annual Trade Balance (Nov) -2.06B (Prev. -2.28B, Rev. -2.35B).
- New Zealand Trade Balance (Nov) -163.0M (Prev. -1542.0M, Rev. -1598M).
- New Zealand Imports (Nov) 7.15B (Prev. 8.04B, Rev. 8.03B).
1c) Asian opening report
EU equity futures point to a weak open despite gains in Asia-Pac equities; BoJ raised rates as expected – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 01:00 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ.
- USD/JPY edged higher alongside the positive risk appetite and despite the BoJ decision to hike rates, as widely expected, and with no mention of FX-related concerns.
- US President Trump’s administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan), UK PSNB (Nov), UK Retail Sales (Nov), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec), Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov), and CBR Announcement. Speakers include BoJ’s Ueda, ECB’s Cipollone, Lane & Fed’s Williams.
SNAPSHOT
- Note, on Friday 19th December, the desk will be closing at the earlier time of 18:05GMT/13:05EST after coverage of the Baker Hughes Rig Count.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were higher albeit in a choppy session on Thursday, as upside kicked off overnight, led by the Nasdaq after the stellar Micron (MU) earnings and guidance on Wednesday night, while reports that OpenAI is set to raise billions at a USD 750bln valuation also lifted sentiment, indicating strong investor appetite in the AI space, after some of fresh concerns last week following Broadcom and Oracle earnings. Stocks advanced further after the November US CPI came in notably softer than expected, albeit with some nuances around the government shutdown. The data also led to immediate upside in T-notes and gold, but this swiftly pared as the nuances were digested – stocks held their bid.
- In the US afternoon, notable pressure was seen in equities, gold, and crypto – albeit on no clear headline driver, with the majority of that downside paring before the closing bell.
- SPX +0.79% at 6,775, NDX +1.51% at 25,019, DJI +0.14% at 47,952, RUT +0.62% at 2,508.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US Commerce Secretary Lutnick spoke of Section 232 investigations into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals during a closed-door meeting with the Ways and Means Republicans today, according to Punchbowl citing sources.
- European Commission President von der Leyen told EU leaders at their summit on Thursday that the Mercosur trade won’t be signed as scheduled on Saturday and instead would wait until next month, according to Politico, citing two diplomats. Von der Leyen later stated that they reached out to Mercosur partners and agreed to slightly postpone the signing, but added that she is confident the EU has sufficient majority to approve the Mercosur trade deal.
- French President Macron said work must continue on the EU-Mercosur deal after the delay, as well as stated that the safeguards clause must be adopted by the EU Parliament and accepted by Mercosur nations, while he added that with new safeguard and mirror clauses to be implemented in January, it would be a “new” Mercosur-EU deal.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter, dissenter) said the latest inflation data was favourable, and if clarity arrives that inflation is waning, then rates can come down, but he is uncomfortable about front-loading rate cuts. Goolsbee said he needs to see more sustained progress in cooling inflation, and that most measures of the job market have shown pretty steady cooling, as well as stated that rates can go down a fair bit as long as they know they’re heading back to 2% inflation.
- US President Trump said he met with Waller yesterday, and he is great, while Trump is talking to three or four people regarding the Fed Chair and said Bowman is also great. Furthermore, he will announce the new Fed Chair over the next couple of weeks, maybe not before the new year.
- US President Trump is looking at declaring a national emergency on housing, while it was also reported that President Trump said there is practically no inflation now. Trump also signed an EO aiming to expedite reclassification of marijuana as schedule III substance.
- US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.
- US Homeland Security Secretary Noem said at President Trump’s direction, she is immediately directing the USCIS to pause the DV1 program.
- US Democratic lawmakers requested a review of the Commerce Secretary’s possible conflicts, according to NYT.
- US Senate Majority Leader Thune said the Democrats’ three-year ACA extension will not pass the Senate.
- OpenAI is aiming to raise as much as USD 100bln in a fundraising round which could value it as much as USD 830bln, while OpenAI is expected to tap sovereign wealth funds to invest in the financing, according to WSJ.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ, which unsurprisingly hiked rates for the first time since January.
- ASX 200 was underpinned by outperformance in tech and financials, but with gains capped as mining, resources and materials sat at the other end of the spectrum.
- Nikkei 225 rallied amid tech strength and with some banks supported as yields gained amid the widely-expected BoJ rate hike, in which the central bank raised its key rate by 25bps to 0.75%, which is the highest in 30 years.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood amid tech strength, and after the PBoC continued to opt for a double-pronged liquidity operation, while it was also reported that TikTok signed a deal to sell its US entity to a joint venture controlled by American investors.
- US equity futures trade steadily after the prior day’s positive but choppy performance on Wall St.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY was rangebound after a recent bout of US data in which participants ultimately looked past the softer-than-expected US CPI data, given the likely distortions from the government shutdown, while other data points included initial claims, which fell in line with expectations, and continued claims remain at elevated levels, but below the consensus. There were also comments from Fed’s Goolsbee, who stated that the latest inflation data was favourable, and if clarity arrives that inflation is waning, then rates can come down, but he is uncomfortable about front-loading rate cuts.
- EUR/USD lacked conviction after giving back the initial gains seen following the ECB announcement to keep rates unchanged, which was as expected, but did see the 2026 projections revised up for inflation and growth. Furthermore, Bloomberg sources later stated the ECB officials expected the easing cycle to be most likely finished based on said upward revisions, while sources cited by Reuters noted that policymakers see growth and inflation risks as balanced and expect to keep rates on hold, but had no appetite to take a rate cut off the table on Thursday.
- GBP/USD was flat overnight after a failure to sustain the early support seen following the prior day’s hawkish BoE rate cut.
- USD/JPY edged higher alongside the positive risk appetite and despite the BoJ decision to hike rates, as widely expected, and with no mention of FX-related concerns, while the latest Japanese CPI data matched estimates across all components and had little impact on the domestic currency.
- Antipodeans traded indecisively with little reaction seen to the New Zealand trade data and improved business surveys.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0550 vs exp. 7.0378 (Prev. 7.0583).
- Mexican Interest Rate (Dec) 7.0% vs. Exp. 7.0% (Prev. 7.25%). Banxico stated that looking ahead, the Board will evaluate the timing for additional reference rate adjustments (prev. Board will evaluate reducing the reference rate).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures faded the prior day’s gains which were facilitated by softer-than-expected US CPI data and a strong 5-year TIPS auction.
- Bund futures lacked demand following the recent ECB and US data-triggered volatility, with downside pressure seen as JGBs slid on the BoJ decision.
- 10yr JGB futures were pressured and slipped beneath the 133.00 level in the aftermath of the BoJ hiking rates to their highest level in 30 years, which lifted the 10yr JGB yield by around 5bps to its highest since 1999 of 2.017%, and the 20yr yield gained by about 4bps to a fresh record high of 2.975%.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded rangebound after marginally gaining yesterday in choppy trade following recent reports of the EU imposing additional sanctions on 41 vessels that are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”, while the UK also made 24 designations under the Russian sanctions scheme.
- Spot gold lacked demand following the recent post-CPI whipsawing in which the precious metal spiked higher on the softer-than-expected US inflation print, before reversing course, as the data was likely to be distorted following the record-long US government shutdown.
- Copper futures gradually edged higher with early downside reversed amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the region.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin advanced overnight alongside the tech strength and returned to above the USD 87,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ hiked rates by 25bps, as widely anticipated, while it stated that real interest rates are expected to remain at significantly low levels and reiterated that it will continue to raise policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. It also repeated that it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target, as well as noted that wages and inflation are likely to continue rising moderately in tandem, and that the economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness is seen. BoJ also stated that consumer inflation is likely to fall below 2% towards the first half of the next fiscal year, then rise thereafter, and it is highly likely that the mechanism in which both wages and prices rise moderately will be maintained.
- TikTok signed a deal to sell its US entity to a joint venture controlled by American investors with the agreement set to close on January 22nd. Oracle (ORCL), Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX will collectively own 45% of TikTok’s US entity, while nearly one-third of the TikTok US will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors, and nearly 20% will be retained by ByteDance, according to Axios.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Nov) 2.9% vs Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Nov) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Nov) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said regarding the Ukraine meeting that they are getting close and he hopes Ukraine moves quickly.
- EU’s Costa said they have a deal to finance Ukraine and that the decision to provide EUR 90bln of support to Ukraine for 2026-2027 was approved. Costa said leaders agreed to roll over sanctions against Russia, while he added that Ukraine will only repay the EU loan once Russia pays reparations and the EU reserves its right to make use of the immobilised assets to repay the loan.
- German Chancellor Merz confirmed that Ukraine will receive an interest-free loan of EUR 90bln and said these funds are sufficient to cover Ukraine’s military and budgetary needs for the next two years, while the EU will keep Russian assets frozen until Russia has compensated Ukraine. Merz also stated that they expressly reserve the right to use Russian assets for repayment if Russia fails to pay compensation in full compliance with international law.
- Russia’s Dmitriev said regarding the EU summit decision that it was a ‘major blow to EU warmongers led by failed Ursula’ and that voices of reason in the EU blocked the illegal use of Russian reserves to fund Ukraine.
OTHER
- US President Trump said he has no problem telling Congress about any possible attack on Venezuela.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB policymakers see growth and inflation risks as balanced, some fear lower growth outcomes, while they expect to keep rates on hold but had no appetite to take a rate cut off the table on Thursday, according to sources cited by Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) -17.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -19.0)
SOUTH KOREA/USA
U.S. Freezes Korea Trade Talks After Seoul Ignores Warnings Over Big Tech Shakedown
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 – 05:20 PM
One month after it looked like South Korea was backing off Big Tech with an ongoing shakedown of fines for violating arbitrary laws, the Trump administration just left the chat – canceling a key bilateral trade meeting and signaling that continued regulatory pressure on American technology firms will carry immediate consequences.
Seoul now gets to enjoy life on the outs – as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) this week scrapped a scheduled meeting of the KORUS Joint Committee, the primary forum for managing the U.S.–South Korea free trade agreement, Politico reports. The move reflects a growing determination in Washington to ensure compliance with explicit commitments made under an updated trade framework negotiated earlier this fall.
Administration officials familiar with the decision said the meeting was canceled after it became clear that South Korea was pushing forward with digital regulations the United States views as discriminatory, despite assurances to the contrary during negotiations.
The message was unambiguous: agreements will be enforced, not debated.
Congress Reinforces The Administration’s Position
The USTR decision follows a Tuesday House Judiciary Committee hearing that underscored bipartisan congressional backing for a tougher line. Reps. Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI) warned that South Korea’s regulatory posture – particularly actions by the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) – had crossed a threshold from competition policy into targeted economic pressure on U.S. firms.
“Chairman Ju Byung-ki of the Korea ‘Fair Trade’ Commission – that’s a wonderful title – in his own words, disparages America, takes us down,” said Issa. “He says: ‘So, why are many Americans, especially white workers in the Rust Belt in the Midwest, so angry?’ I’ll tell you why they’re so angry, as somebody born and raised in Cleveland, Ohio – and somebody who happened to work for the Trump administration – because in fact, they believe in free and fair trade. The fact is we now have to take on the status quo of global competitiveness.”
Lawmakers framed the issue not as a technical regulatory dispute, but as a matter of fair treatment, reciprocity, and credibility in trade relationships.
Issa criticized KFTC Chairman Ju Byung-ki for advancing enforcement policies while publicly disparaging American workers, arguing that such rhetoric and conduct reflect a deeper disregard for the principles underpinning the bilateral trade relationship.
Fitzgerald – who previously sent a warning letter to the KTFC – pointed to economic research indicating that Korea’s approach could impose hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on the U.S. economy, with higher costs ultimately borne by American consumers.
Watch the entire hearing below:
A Pattern Washington Has Long Tolerated – Until Now
For years, South Korea’s KFTC has operated as an aggressive and unpredictable regulator whose enforcement actions fall disproportionately on foreign market leaders. American firms have been subjected to raids, intrusive investigations, and fines that critics say far exceed international norms.
Now, over 40 members of congress recently sent a letter urging the Trump administration to stop the KFTC’s “criminal threats for standard business practices.”
Major U.S. companies including Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Qualcomm, Tesla, and others, have faced repeated penalties and probes tied to app stores, digital advertising, search rankings, privacy rules, and platform operations. Korean “network usage fees” and billing mandates have further tilted the playing field, according to industry groups.
One thing is clear – the Trump administration is over it, and Seoul thinks they can wriggle out of promises they made during Trump’s October visit to South Korea – during which the administration secured clear commitments under a revised U.S.–ROK trade framework. Seoul agreed to refrain from discriminatory digital regulations, ensure fair treatment of U.S. companies, and improve procedural safeguards in competition enforcement, including recognition of attorney-client privilege.
In return, Korea received tariff relief and expanded access to the U.S. market, while committing tens of billions of dollars in U.S.-approved investments and defense purchases.
From Washington’s perspective, that bargain is not optional – and recent moves by Korea’s parliament to introduce new digital platform bills – alongside signals that regulators may continue aggressive enforcement – were interpreted by U.S. officials as noncompliance, not negotiation.
The cancellation of the KORUS meeting was the response.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has repeatedly warned South Korean officials that failure to adhere to digital trade commitments could trigger a Section 301 investigation, opening the door to new tariffs and countermeasures, Politico notes further.
Administration officials say the issue is not escalation for its own sake, but enforcement of agreed terms. As one White House official put it, tariffs remain “a stick we carry” – and Seoul understands that.
The administration’s broader posture has been consistent: digital trade rules that single out American companies will be met with consequences, whether in Asia or Europe.
Strategic Alignment Comes With Expectations
The firm stance on trade coincides with deepening U.S.–Korea security cooperation, including Washington’s recent approval for South Korea to pursue nuclear-powered submarine capabilities long denied under previous administrations.
Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien has emphasized that economic fairness and strategic trust are inseparable. Regulatory campaigns that target U.S. firms, he warned, create a “climate of fear” inconsistent with alliance obligations – particularly as the U.S. works to counter China’s growing economic influence in the region.
The Trump administration’s decision to halt talks rather than indulge prolonged dispute marks a shift in tone, as it’s now clear that Washington is no longer content to subsidize discriminatory regulation under the banner of alliance politics. Market access, tariff relief, and strategic cooperation now come with enforceable expectations.
Or as Issa put it on Tuesday, the United States is done absorbing regulatory abuse from partners while honoring its own commitments.
b. JAPAN
BBC
Japan hikes interest rate to highest level since 1995 as inflation bites
Peter HoskinsBusiness reporter
Japan’s central bank has raised its main interest rate to the highest level in 30 years as the country faces a cost-of-living squeeze.
In a widely expected decision, the Bank of Japan’s policy board, led by governor Kazuo Ueda, increased its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to “around 0.75%” on Friday.
The move comes as new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is keen that inflation comes down but also needs the cost of government borrowing to be cheap.
It marks both the first time the BOJ has hiked rates since January and the first rise since both Takaichi and Ueda took up their current roles.
When a central bank raises interest rates it tends to have the effect of increasing the value of the country’s currency.
In Japan’s case, it has the potential of easing inflation as the yen’s low value versus other major currencies, like the US dollar and the euro, has pushed up the cost of imports, which in turn has helped to fuel inflation.
At the same time, higher interest rates push up government borrowing costs because when rates go up governments, like anyone else, have to pay more to borrow money.
Last year, Takaichi described the idea of a rate hike as “stupid” although she has not publicly criticised Ueda’s policies since she took office in October.
Still, Takaichi has made the fight against inflation a priority as rising costs have eroded support for her party, the LDP.
On Friday, official figures showed Japan’s inflation, excluding food and fuel, rose by 3% in November. That remains above the bank’s target rate of 2%.
But Shoki Omori, chief strategist at Mizuho in Tokyo, told the BBC that the interest rate rise will do little to ease inflation as it has already been priced in by currency markets and the yen remains relatively weak.
Most economists expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark interest rate once more next year to hit 1%.
It marks a major change in Japanese policy makers’ approach to interest rates.
“What we’re seeing is a historic shift after nearly three decades of long standing low rates in Japan,” said Julia Lee from Pacific FTSE Russell, part of the London Stock Exchange Group.
But Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy may make it harder for the bank to hike again, said Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan economics at Oxford Economics.
“The BoJ will need time, probably around six months, to monitor the impact of the rate hike on the real economy before it makes its final move,” he said.
The BOJ’s latest rate rise comes as other major central banks around the world are moving in the opposite direction – lowering the cost of borrowing.
On Thursday, the Bank of England cut its main interest rate to 3.75%, the lowest level since February 2023.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time this year, even as internal divisions create uncertainty about additional cuts in the coming months.
The central bank said it was lowering the target for its key lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, putting it in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% – its lowest level in three years.
END
JAPAN
Loss Of Credibility: Yen Craters, Yields Surge After BOJ Hikes Rates To Highest Since 1999
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 10:18 AM
In the last central bank decision of 2025, the BOJ lifted its key rate to 0.75% from 0.50% in a widely anticipated and telegraphed move, taking borrowing costs to their highest level in three decades. It wasn’t enough, however, and after an initial kneejerk move, the yen plunged while yields soared as the market concluded that what Ueda did was too little, too late, and the hike was too vague to press the hawkish case.
As such, the market doves are back in control, and forcing the BOJ to either double down and puts Japan’s money where its mouth is, or lose control of either the currency or the bond market, or eventually, both.
In a recap of what the BOJ did, Bloomberg writes the following:
- Ueda said risks tied to the impact of US tariffs appear to be easing and pointed to solid wage growth momentum next year year, a condition for more sustained inflation.
- Both the BOJ statement and Ueda’s remarks implied there’s room to raise rates further, while offering assurance that conditions would remain accommodative. That reinforces expectations of a gradual and data-dependent tightening path.
- Ueda also said the policy rate remains some distance from the lower-end of a neutral range and added he would like to recalculate that if the opportunity arises, signaling openness to further tightening but also a desire for greater confidence in the framework before moving more decisively.
- As BBG notes, by lifting the policy rate to a three-decade high of 0.75% on Friday, Ueda continued his historic march toward restoring normality to Japan’s monetary policy and the economy after decades of unconventional steps and underperformance. The only problem: Japan will never survive in a world where monetary policy is even remotely “normal ” and as a result, government bond yields immediately climbed to the highest levels since the 1990s, an indication that the BOJ policy space is now narrower than ever.
And indeed, Bloomberg admits that while Ueda had telegraphed Friday’s move ahead of time, he didn’t offer similar clarity about what comes next, and that’s left yen bears chomping on the currency instead of backing away. The yen slid more than 1% against the dollar, to around 157.40, in the hours after Ueda’s press conference.
“Listening to what he said, I honestly couldn’t tell at all when the next rate hike might be,” said Teppei Ino, Tokyo head of global markets research at MUFG Bank. “He didn’t really say anything about the neutral rate — there was simply no guidance at all.”
Addressing the hawkish side, Goldman’s Kai Wen Lim writes that the statement removed language that growth and inflation will stagnate due to tariffs, coupled with hawkish voices on the board and a clear acknowledgement that real rates are still low, all leaned on the more hawkish side despite a lack of new details. The reaffirmation bolstered bearish sentiment causing futures to sell off ~4bps while BOJ pricing also inched higher across the curve from March onwards, with June and July seeing the most traction implying market expectation of the next hike being ~6 months away.
On the other hand, classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon was observed in USDJPY, with the pair initially weakening a touch on initial headlines before surging and swiftly breaking past the 156 handle (and then 157) with investors likely thinking interest rate differentials remain very high, coupled with the disappointment over the lack of clearer guidance on the timing of the next hike.
A rather pragmatic take was shared by Goldman Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky who pointed to the breakout in Japanese 10 year yields above 2% – rising 5bps to 2.02%, the highest since 1999 – as the market was convinced the BOJ remains behind the curve.
But the latest twist – which is what the cartoonish BOJ is so known for – was the lack of a pre-commitment to future hikes, and the continued vagueness on timing.
“The market had expected a hawkish hike from the BOJ, with the expectation of clarifying its stance on narrowing the neutral rate range and future rate hike path,” ING Bank’s Min Joo Kang and Chris Turner wrote in a note. “However, both the BOJ and Ueda remained quite vague on this matter, which likely caused disappointment in the market.”
As a result, the whole JGB curve twisted higher and bear steepening while the JPY is weakening, precisely the opposite of what the BOJ wanted to achieve! According to Privo, on the margin “the price action would suggest BOJ still behind the curve (run it hot).” Japan equities are higher led by Japan banks, momentum and construction. Keep an eye on longer dated rates for hints on whether the BOJ is about to lose control of the bond market.
Many market players had been expecting the governor to back up their consensus view that Ueda will keep raising rates every six months.
Some of them even thought he might hint at how far the BOJ wanted to hike rates, by referring to the neutral interest rate. Instead, the professor-turned-central bank governor struck a pragmatic note, saying the bank would edge closer to neutral rather than trying to pinpoint in advance where it is.
That creates a headache for Japan’s Finance Ministry, which spent some $100 billion last year to prop up the currency when it weakened to around 160 per dollar — not far from where it is now.
“The yen’s slide is likely to heighten caution about the risk of intervention,” Ino said.
The market moves point to some of the difficulties Ueda faces in the second half of his term. In his first two-and-a-half years, the governor exceeded expectations by transforming policy at the BOJ and raising rates.
Ueda now risks damaging that reputation even more – and infuriating Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – if he hikes rates too fast and the economy collapses, while the yen craters. But moving too slowly could prolong the inflation damage for households, and leave the Finance Ministry with work to do in the currency market.
What’s more, a return to yen intervention may also prompt further blowback from President Donald Trump’s administration in the US, which sometimes appears frustrated by Japan’s cautious monetary policy.
Nobuyasu Atago, chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute and a former BOJ official, notes that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is clearly in favor of correcting yen weakness through BOJ policy rather than intervention.
“Governor Ueda likely thinks that yen weakness will enable him to keep raising rates,” said Atago. “But that takes him further away from policy normalization that responds to the bedding-in of inflation based on domestic demand, not external shocks.”
For now, the only thing that’s clear is that rates are likely to increase again unless of course the economy collapses next.
According to Bloomberg, the question now is how far Ueda can go. Just two years ago, economists projected that the bank would only reach 0.5% in this hiking cycle. Now, if the central bank can hike every six months, Ueda would be walking out of the BOJ building in April 2028 with the rate at 1.75% and a reputation for working miracles in Japan.
“The hurdle just gets higher and higher,” Kazuo Momma, a former BOJ executive director in charge of monetary policy, told Bloomberg. Although the BOJ doesn’t know where the neutral rate is, each hike brings the bank closer to it, he said. Among 48 economists surveyed in December, the median forecast points to two more hikes. But more than 20 of them expect three or more.
Ueda has repeatedly said that he prefers to hike and monitor the impact rather than map out his endgame. And he’s reiterated time and again that he will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices play out as the bank expects.
In Friday’s policy statement, the BOJ stated that the real rate remains at a “significantly” low level.
“That suggests the next rate hike will still be an adjustment of monetary easing and that’s hugely important,” Momma said. “This implicitly says that the BOJ thinks 1% isn’t the neutral rate.”
In other words, as long as the BOJ keeps referring to rates at “significantly” low levels, the central bank remains a ways off the neutral rate. That also fits in with Ueda’s view that his rate hikes aren’t yet tightening moves, but are instead the adjustment of accommodative conditions. With inflation still way above borrowing costs, it’s hard to argue otherwise.-
Commenting on the paradoxical plunge in both the yen and yields, Bloomberg FX strategist Vassilis Karamanis said that this was “not a paradox but a reflection of positioning and timing” (well, maybe it was a little bit of a paradox). He explains why:
Yen weakness after the Bank of Japan’s interest rate increase shouldn’t surprise. Neither should the risk of intervention if thin liquidity turns an orderly grind into a disorderly move.
The BoJ did what yen bulls have been long waiting to see, but it didn’t hand them a clear victory. The central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, and kept the door open to further increases if the outlook holds. The message was that officials are growing more confident inflation can be sustained around target.
And yet the first price reaction looked like a reminder that FX is rarely polite. The yen weakened, with USD/JPY pushing through the 156 area even as Japanese yields rose, with the 10-year yield topping 2% for the first time since 2006. That’s not a paradox but a reflection of positioning and timing.
Above all, this was widely expected. When the market walks into a meeting already priced for 25 basis points, “hawkish BOJ” has to mean more than just delivering the hike. It needs to mean conviction on the pace, and right now, the bar for that conviction is high because the BOJ communicates gradualism given there was no upgraded assessment of the economy. Governor Kazuo Ueda said that it’s difficult to determine the neutral rate ahead of time, and that the pace of adjustment of easing depends on the economy and prices.
This gradualism matters because the yen’s core problem isn’t whether Japan can hike, but whether it can hike fast enough to overwhelm the funding-currency reflex. Carry and hedging behavior have inertia. You can tighten policy and still watch USD/JPY grind higher if the market thinks the next move is “sometime in 2026” rather than next quarter, especially while the US-Japan rate gap remains wide enough to keep the carry trade alive.
Options were flagging that risk into the meeting. The chart below shows USD/JPY skew flattening versus last week, a sign traders were less willing to pay up for yen strength protection across the front end. And CFTC positioning tells a similar story: hedge funds weren’t in a rush to cover shorts.
The macro backdrop isn’t giving the yen a clean runway either. Fiscal stimulus expectations and Japan’s heavy debt load keep the bond market sensitive, and currency weakness can still function as a release valve rather than a red line. Which brings us to the part yen traders need to respect into year end: intervention risk.
The market loves to talk about 160 as if it’s a magic number but I’m not so sure officials also do so. While in theory their framework is supposed to be about speed, disorder and volatility, and not a single level, recent episodes show thresholds can be blurry in practice. And as holiday conditions can turn a routine move into an ugly one quickly, levels and volatility may not matter much, and we could see a preemptive move from the Ministry of Finance as the one in November 2024.
Liquidity is thinning into year-end. If USD/JPY starts to gap on air pockets rather than fundamentals — remember, the rate gap has been narrowing for three years now — the theme can turn from BOJ gradualism to MOF tolerance. That’s why the post-hike yen selloff is not the shocking part. That would be assuming officials will wait patiently for 160 or above if the market hands them disorder first.- END
JAPAN
KEVIN W. TO US
Japan Raises Interest Rates to Highest Level in 30 Years
The Yen carry trade is dead or dying quickly after 25 years. Will they allow it blow up markets like in Q4 ’08 and Q4 ’19 -Q1 ’20? Seems like not. Just throw B-52 bomber helicopter money globally into money supply and reserves at central bank faster than liquidity is destroyed.
“Ms. Takaichi’s promise to the group was that she would bolster Japan’s economy through government spending, but only in a way that was “sustainable” and “responsible.” The spending would be enough to drum up growth but keep Japan’s already enormous debt levelsmanageable, she said.
The prime minister’s ability to balance these dual pledges is about to be put to the test.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan increased its benchmark interest rate to 0.75 percent. While this remains far below rates in other major economies, it is the highest level in Japan — which for decades has used near-zero rates to battle deflation — since 1995.
More than half of that spending will be funded by issuing more bonds.”https://archive.is/VbZ9Z
Kevin
3. CHINA/
CHINA/USA/RARE EARTHS
China Begins Granting General Licenses For Rare Earths As Trade Tensions Cool
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 – 11:00 PM
The tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China earlier this year cooled by late October after President Trump and President Xi agreed to a trade truce that, so far, appears to be holding.
There are early signs that the truce is beginning to restore rare earth trade between China and the West, as Beijing has started approving some rare earth export license applications this week.
Bloomberg reported that the Ministry of Commerce has approved some rare earth export applications, signaling an easing of supply constraints for overseas buyers, including those in the European Union.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic told Bloomberg TV earlier this week that industry chatter suggests China is granting so-called general licenses, a shift from a highly bureaucratic process introduced in April that threatened to disrupt major German automakers and other key industries. Licenses valid for up to a year are being granted and seen as a way to reduce delays and administrative burdens.
“We are getting initial reports from our industry that they are getting these general licenses, but we need to have a little bit more granular information to evaluate the whole process,” Sefcovic said.
He said the EU has increased efforts to secure general licenses from China that would allow pre-approved buyers to make repeated shipments of rare earths over time.
The general license involves less paperwork than the previous licenses, which required companies to submit excessive paperwork and even photos of their detailed supply chain data.
“The fact that this idea was favorably received, that it seems we are getting the first general licenses, and also that the Chinese side was receptive to our arguments” that the process originally set up in April was too bureaucratic, Sefcovic noted.
Since April, China has approved about 70% of license requests, up from roughly 50% earlier. While the Trump-Xi trade truce eased some pressure on global supplies, China’s licensing process underscores just how strong Beijing’s chokehold is on these critical minerals essential to robots, military hardware, electric vehicles, aircraft, and other technologies.
It’s clear that China has used its mineral dominance as a key bargaining chip in trade talks with Washington and the West. And that’s why the Trump administration is moving full steam ahead with rebuilding America’s rare-earth supply chain.
END
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS/SCANDINAVIA
UK
British Teachers To “Spot Misogyny” In Boys And Target Them For Reeducation
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 05:45 AM
For years UK officials turned a blind eye to rape gangs because it might look racist to crack down on foreigners. Now, suddenly, the real problem is young boys who are ‘radicalized’ into becoming misogynists. The only solution is of course Orwellian; and includes an agenda to reeducate British boys showing “signs of misogyny” (anti-wokeness).
According to the BBC, teachers will be given training to spot and “tackle” misogyny in the classroom, while high-risk pupils could be sent on behavior courses as part of the government’s strategy to halve violence against women and girls (VAWG).
The goal is to ‘prevent the radicalization of young men’ by addressing misogyny early in order to prevent escalation into violence. Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips called violence against women and girls a “national emergency,” adding that the government’s goal is to be “so ambitious that we change culture.”
“What definitely does not exist yet, [is] if teachers are seeing signs of sexually harmful behaviour or are worried about the attitude of pupils with regard to misogyny… teachers currently don’t have anywhere specialist or targeted to send those pupils,” Phillips told BBC Radio 4.
Under a new £20 million program over three years;
- Teachers will receive special training to ‘spot and challenge misogyny,’ teach consent, address the dangers of sharing nude pics, identify positive role models, and challenge ‘harmful myths’ about women and relationships.
- Schools will refer high-risk students to ‘behavioral courses’ to address prejudice against women and girls.
The new measures will be incorporated into the Department for Education’s statutory guidance on relationships, sex and health education, and specifies that pupils “should be equipped to recognise misogyny” along with its links to violence against women and girls.
The program arrives at the height of left-wing hysteria in the UK over popular opposition to mass third-world immigration and online censorship. The focus is largely on white native born British men, who have apparently been designated public enemy number one despite numerous mass murder events and sexual assaults perpetrated across Europe by third-world migrants, or the children of third world migrants.
Though there are already general classes in schools which include all students, the new program is designed to train teachers to single out “problem boys” for special attention. It is highly unlikely that progressive teachers will single out minority students (Keep an eye out for the interesting placement of George Orwell’s 1984 in the news segment below).
The BBC cites data from a charity called “Reducing the Risk”, claiming that nearly 40% of teenagers in relationships are victims of abuse. The charity’s website does not give direct sources for this number, but it is likely taken from the December 2025 Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) report.
The report’s conclusions are misleading, however, as the 40% stat is largely tied to perceived psychological abuse, including such terrible crimes as “looking at a partner’s phone without their permission” and “saying something critical about their appearance.” Upon deeper investigation, the report notes that only 4% of teens in Britain suffer from actual physical or sexual abuse in relationships, and the criteria for this is also broad.
Reeducation projects launched along with the release of a Netflix series called “Adolescence” about a young white British boy who murders a female classmate. The crime is largely blamed on the rise of online misogyny and “manosphere” influencers like Andrew Tate. Keep in mind, only one murder suspect in the UK has ever been identified as consuming masculinity content before a murder occurred, and it did not inspire the actual crime.
The majority of government and NGO funded public information ads depicting mistreatment of women feature white men, not minorities.
“Every parent should be able to trust that their daughter is safe at school, online and in her relationships, but too often, toxic ideas are taking hold early and going unchallenged,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said of the new measures, adding “This government is stepping in sooner – backing teachers, calling out misogyny, and intervening when warning signs appear to stop harm before it starts.”
Furthermore, the media and the government present these stats as if they are limited to men. But the surveys include male and female respondents. There is no announced plan to educate women on how to treat men.
It is clear that the British government intends to ignore third world ideologies such as Islam which are openly hostile to women Instead, they hope to place the blame of misogyny on masculinity in general as a means to purge boys of any conservative ideals and thus, keep them under control.
So now, like racism, children in the UK will be programmed to believe they’re guilty of another ‘original sin,’ while rape gangs from foreign lands continue to abuse young British girls – something the government conspired to cover up. On the bright side, Piers Morgan enjoys their cuisine.
END
GERMANY
The End Of ‘Welcome Culture’: Majority Of Germans Want Immigration Moratorium, Mass Deportations
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 05:00 AM
The numbers in a new YouGov poll should serve as the final nail in the coffin of Germany’s so-called “Welcome Culture,” promoted during the 2015 migration crisis, which was promoted by Angela Merkel, her CDU, and the left. A decade later, Germans feature the prevailing view that the negative consequences of both legal and illegal migration vastly outweigh the positive. The new from YouGov shows a majority of Germans want an immigration moratorium and mass deportations.
The polling results, which were obtained exclusively by Welt, show that Germans are — despite all the claims of “we have space” that were promoted by the left — immensely fed up with illegal immigration. The poll shows that 81 percent of Germans state that illegal immigration was “far too high” or “rather too high” over the last 10 years. Only 5 percent view the levels as appropriate.
Another 75 percent say illegal migration has been bad for Germany.
Majority also rejects legal migration
However, despite a relentless media campaign, a clear majority of Germans also appear to reject legal migration.
A majority of Germans, 57 percent, believe that too many people have entered the country legally, with only a quarter of respondents considering the numbers appropriate.
Mass deportations and immigration moratorium
In addition, 53 percent of Germans favor a total moratorium on all new immigration, as well as the return of a large number of migrants to their homelands, otherwise known by many on the right as “remigration” or mass deportation.
Clearly, Germany’s “welcome culture” appears to be on its final death throes, as Germans become sick of soaring crime, a growing housing crisis, tens of billions spent a year on foreigners, terror threats, dangerous swimming pool conditions, and a crumbling education — all in large part due to mass immigration.
As Welt notes, exact migration figures are difficult to determine, but the Federal Statistical Office reports 6.5 million immigrants have arrived in Germany since 2015 without differentiating legal status, and the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees records 2.8 million initial asylum applications.
A majority of Germans are not happy with this development.
In fact, among the countries surveyed in the European Political Monthly (including France, Italy, Spain, and Poland), Germany displays the most pronounced opposition to migration. It is fair to note, however, that other countries, like France, have in many other polls shown far greater opposition to migrants than Germans.
Illegal immigration perception
Remarkably, 75 percent believe illegal migration has been “largely bad” for the country.
While 38 percent believe legal immigration has been bad for Germany, 31 percent say it has been mixed, while only 24 percent say it has been positive.
Integration
“>
A whopping 80 percent of Germans believe illegal migrants have not been successfully integrated—the highest rate of dissatisfaction among the nations surveyed.
Even regarding legal immigrants, a majority of 54 percent believe integration has failed.
Values
“>
Seventy-nine percent of Germans say that illegal immigrants do not share the German population’s values.
However, a majority also say this about legal migrants, with 53 percent of Germans holding this opinion.
Frieder Schmid, a pollster for YouGov, contextualizes these findings: “We are seeing a great deal of weariness surrounding the issue of immigration,” he explains. “There is currently little acceptance, especially for irregular migration.”
Schmid notes that tangible strain on infrastructure plays a role. “As a result, some people view immigration as a whole as problematic,” said Schmid, pointing to issues in schools and housing shortages in major cities.
The result? Despite media reports that claim the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a racist party that should be banned, there are nearly no Germans left who actually support a liberal migration policy.
In fact, only 10 percent of Germans support a “liberal immigration policy.” On the contrary, as noted above, 53 percent of Germans want a complete moratorium on immigration and mass deportations.
Support for a liberal immigration policy has collapsed to just 10 percent. Instead, a narrow majority (53 percent) now favors a scenario involving a halt to new arrivals and the return of a large number of migrants.
The poll shows overwhelming support for deporting migrants in certain scenarios, with 88 percent supporting efforts to deport individuals who immigrated primarily to receive social benefits.
Another 85 percent support asylum seekers who entered the country illegally, which is nearly all asylum seekers.
However, support for deportation drops sharply in certain areas. Seventy-four percent reject deporting doctors, 73 percent are against deporting skilled workers, tradespeople (71 percent), and foreign students (66 percent).
However, the YouGov pollster also states that when immigration questions are framed a certain way, respondents change their answers. Namely, when respondents are asked if they would accept less immigration and a weaker economy, only 27 percent accept this.
The poll shows that 46 percent would opt for improving the economic situation through immigration, compared to 27 percent who would accept a weaker economy to reduce immigration.
The problem with the question becomes apparent, implying that restricting immigration would necessarily make the economy worse. Although an imperfect comparison, it is worth noting that China has one of the most immigration restrictionst economies in the world. Now, it has Europe begging for help, as China pulls ahead in manufacturing, energy production, and innovation in a wide range of fields.
China, like other Asian countries such as Japan, has opted for automation, robotics, and “black-out” factories that require no humans to manage its population decline. Remix News covered this reality in a piece published in October.
END
UK/RUSSIA
Russia Sentences UK ‘Mercenary’ To 13 Years In Prison Camp After Capture In Ukraine
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 04:15 AM
Foreign fighters continue to play a role on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the latest example, on Thursday Russian prosecutors announced that a British national who fought alongside Ukrainian forces has been sentenced to 13 years in a high-security penal colony after being captured on the battlefield.
The Prosecutor General’s Office identified the man as 30-year-old Hayden Davies, and described he had been fighting on behalf of Ukrainian forces. He was tried in a court in Russian-controlled Donetsk.
He reportedly confessed to traveling to Ukraine to join the International Legion, which is made up of foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine’s military against Russia, and received monthly payments of between $400 and $500.
Russian court authorities released footage of him being questioned while behind bars, wherein he’s seen with his head having been freshly shaven as is common with prisoners.
Some speculate his answers may have been given under coercion, but he’s seen on camera nodding in the affirmative when asked if he’s guilty of the charges.
The UK government has been formally petitioning Moscow that he should be considered a prisoner of war and not a mercenary.
But instead he’s being treated as a mercenary, which means he does not receive the customary protections under the Geneva Conventions
Davies is originally from Southampton, previously served in the British military, and has a family back home. According to Sky News:
Russian prosecutors said on Thursday that Mr Davies had arrived in western Ukraine in August 2024, signed a contract to fight for the International Legion, undergone military training, before fighting against the Russian army in Donetsk.
The whole ordeal is similar to a parallel recent case which saw a Russian court sentence another British citizen, James Scott Rhys Anderson, to 19 years in prison.
Anderson had reportedly been actually caught fighting on Russian soil, in the Kursk region, as part of the short-lived Ukrainian breach of the Russian southwest oblast which happened last year.
Early in the early four year long conflict, UK authorities – including Liz Truss at the time – positively encouraged citizens to go and fight on behalf of Ukraine. Since then an estimated 20,000 foreigners from over 50 countries are believed to have traveled to Ukraine to assist. But these official calls from Western officials have grown silent as Ukraine’s battlefield chances have dimmed, and the front lines have seen continued Russian advances.
END
UK
Harmless Christmas Card Pulled From Shelves And “Destroyed” After One Trans-Activist Offended
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
In a stunning display of overreach, British supermarket Sainsbury’s is frantically pulling a humorous Christmas card from its shelves after a single woke campaigner branded it “transphobic”.
The Dr. Seuss-themed card ironically features the Grinch character with the caption: “This Christmas, I’m identifying as a Grinch.”
This tame play on words exposes the brittle intolerance of gender ideology activists who demand everyone else bend to their language rules while simultaneously silencing any dissent.
Sophie Molly, a transgender ‘journalist,’ whinged on BlueCry after spotting the card at a branch of the supermarket in Aberdeen. Sharing a photo of the horrendously offensive item, she wrote: “Transphobic Christmas card in my local Sainsbury’s (Berryden). Please do better Sainsbury’s.”
Molly later said in remarks to Pink News, that the card “belittles the identity of trans and non-binary people,” insisting “Trans people don’t choose to identify as their gender – it’s part of who they are. Being trans is not a choice.”
Whining some more, Molly added: “Cis people saying they identify as something like a tomato, attack helicopter or a Grinch invalidates the lived experience of trans people. It tells the world that they think it’s a choice to be trans, something you can switch in and out of, like playing dress up. This is not true.”
No, that’s genderfluid, right? You tell us Sophie. After all, you make the rules. Literally make them up as you go along.
She wasn’t done there, adding “Being trans or non-binary is not something you can switch off, in the same way a cis person can’t switch off being cis,” and moaning that “When you consider the current UK climate of trans hostility, I feel that it’s a worrying sight.”
Get real. It’s a fucking Christmas card.
The backlash then snowballed, leading Emotional Rescue, the card’s publisher, to pathetically issue an grovelling apology and yank the design.
Jennie Rutter, the creative director, told Pink News: “It was in no way our intention to cause anyone in the trans community offence. We will remove this design from our range immediately.”
Jack Wilson, operations director at Paper Salad, which created the illustration, went even further, confirming: “Due to our contribution to the card, I’d like to apologise on behalf of Paper Salad for any offence caused. This was not our intention. We have removed the design from sale and destroyed all stock with immediate effect.”
Destroyed all stock? Talk about overkill.
END
UK
Broken Britain
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Ash via The Gatestone Institute,
There is a curious sense of minority entitlement which seems to have grown exponentially in recent years. It was absent when my father migrated from Egypt to England in the last century and met my mother. Although he considered himself a Muslim, he had a somewhat lackadaisical approach to his inherited faith – as did many Westernised Muslims of the time. He was proud of his faith, but he did not place being a Muslim at the forefront of his identity. Like many of his fellow émigrés, he wanted to escape the more oppressive religious aspects of his home country.
Occasionally he would visit one of England’s seven mosques, which adequately serviced the needs of the fifty thousand Muslims at the time. The West was still largely ignorant of Islam. Britain’s grasp of what it represented was minimal, to say the least, but my father did not move to England in the expectation that its denizens were fluent in Muslim culture or that there would be a mosque on every street. He did not feel that his human rights, by not being specifically catered to, were being violated. It was quite enough to find accommodation and work, rather than inventing grievances.
The thought of complaining, or being a victim, would have seemed incongruous to him — presuming there had been anyone to complain to — because, he said, at last he felt free.
He was not alone in thinking this way. As my family grew, my father made friends with other Muslim migrants and their families, who felt the same as he did.
Playing a “victim card” would have been deemed not only impolite and unappreciative, but woefully narcissistic. If any Muslim pressure groups or support networks had existed, he would most certainly have shunned them. Like many of his generation, he was far too proud to wish to appear needy. He even refused anything the fledgling benefits system had to offer, despite — as our family grew — being eligible for help. It would have been an affront to him to ask for assistance or even to have someone speak up on his behalf. He certainly did not want my (English) mother to wear a burka or a hijab.
Even their Muslim “nikah” marriage was for the sake of convenience. Like everyone else who takes up residence in a foreign country, he wanted, more than anything, simply to fit in and improve his lot in his new, adopted home.
In many of the Arab countries from which the friends of our family had migrated — from Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Tunisia — being deeply religious was a job. It was for scholars. He was not in the slightest bit offended by the predominantly Christian culture around him. There were no special interest advocates to stir the sediment and cause resentment — from either England or the Middle East. Muslim immigrants of the time, like my father, just wanted to get along with as little disruption as possible.
Since then, a multiculturalism experiment has grown. Thanks largely to the introduction of separating people by identity politics, ethnic communities — groups rather than individuals — now find themselves encouraged to compete for recognition and reward. Not just amongst themselves; they have, perhaps unwittingly, found themselves pitted not only against one another, but also against the indigenous working-class families at the lower end of Britain’s socio-economic scale. It is these dispossessed communities for whom I feel the most. It is they who bear the brunt of what they see as the unfair, discriminatory practices stacked up against them.
How could seeing Muslim immigrants receiving preferential treatment from the government that allows them to exploit the welfare system not act as a catalyst for division and anger? For example, polygamy might be legal in their home country, but this is most certainly not the custom in Britain. However, polygamous marriages are not only overlooked, they are rewarded by way of benefit payments to “wives” who may not even reside in the UK.
My father would have thought it was a bad joke if someone had suggested to him that ‘halal’ meat should be used in fast food outlets just to appease a Muslim minority. Yet this is exactly what has happened.
There are numerous examples of “controversial” planning decisions that regularly go the way of the Muslim applicant, such as providing “retrospective permission” for a “Muslim” cemetery.
For a local council to allow retrospective planning permission, as most householders in the UK will attest to, is no easy task. When it appears to have been sanctioned, and backdated by more than fifteen years — as in Worcester Muslim cemetery — head-scratching ensues. To then discover the permission was granted by a Muslim councillor whose first name is “Allah” — the optics are, understandably, rather questionable.
There are so many other examples of “bad optics” — the state’s seemingly biased decision-making when British Muslims’ interests are at stake. By reacting to them, one is quickly labelled “racist” or “xenophobic” — exacerbating the problem. It is clear why my father was careful to avoid such conflicts. It does not make for a happy society when one exasperates one’s neighbours in such a cavalier fashion. Neither should it take a genius to understand that apparent favouritism, be it in a family, the school playground, or in society as a whole, creates a breeding ground of resentment and discontent.
Either our successive governments have been bereft of geniuses, or there is something else at play. Certainly, if people wish to discuss the impact of the out-of-control immigration system that has led us to this point, the authorities do not seem to be even slightly interested. Instead, they are told that they are not entitled to play the victim card, so freely utilised by the minority groups. Their “white privilege” supposedly precludes them from sympathy.
Strange, then, that this huge swathe of allegedly “privileged” people continues to become increasingly disadvantaged — deprivileged — as the ever-expanding Muslim communities of Britain prosper. Not only do they have their religious needs catered to — as in the above examples — but also by seeming to receive special treatment regarding the welfare system, as well as special protection by the expansion of hate crime laws.
British Muslims, along with a variety of other minorities, have come to realise that there is currency in claiming victimhood. There are rewards to be found in appearing helpless, a label which my father — and his generation of proud Muslim migrants — would have found demeaning and insulting, at best.
end
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/SAUDI ARABIA
Normalization with Saudi Arabia cannot begin while Mecca broadcasts antisemitic hate – editorial
In a weekly sermon delivered at Mecca two days before the Bondi Beach terror attack the preacher called on God to punish the Jews and portrayed Israel as a cruel “Zionist enemy.”
Muslims perform their evening prayers around the holy Kaaba as they start arriving to perform the annual Haj in the Grand Mosque, in the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, June 16, 2023.(photo credit: SAUDI PRESS AGENCY/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)ByJPOST EDITORIALDECEMBER 19, 2025 06:00
Saudi Arabia cannot ask the world to treat it as a partner for peace while a sermon broadcast from Mecca vilifies Jews and sanctifies their enemies. Normalization is not a trophy but a test. If it is meant to change the Middle East, it must also change the global community.
In an op-ed published this week, Dr. Edy Cohen, an expert in the Arab world, described the weekly sermon delivered from Islam’s holiest site two days before the antisemitic terrorist attack in Sydney. The preacher, Sheikh Salih bin Abdullah bin Humaid, called on God to punish the Jews and portrayed Israel as a cruel “Zionist enemy,” while praising the Palestinian struggle.
Regardless of any operational connection, sermons such as these provide moral justification. They tell millions of listeners that hostility to Jews is not prejudice; it is righteousness. They intentionally blur the distinction between anti-Israel rhetoric and anti-Jewish hatred, and their impact extends far beyond the Gulf region.
Such rhetoric matters now because normalization with Saudi Arabia is again being discussed in strategic circles, often as if it is a transactional mega-deal. Public reporting and US policy discussions have described a package that could include US security guarantees, advanced weapons, and civilian nuclear cooperation in exchange for Riyadh establishing ties with Israel. If that is the framework, then antisemitic incitement is not a side issue; it is a threat multiplier.
MBS speaks the language of reform but consolidates power through repression
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) likes to speak the language of reform. In 2017, he told Reuters he wanted “moderate Islam” and vowed to eradicate extremism. Yet he has also consolidated power through repression, including waves of detentions of prominent clerics and public figures. In Saudi Arabia, religion is not separate from the state; it is administered.
That is why it isn’t easy to accept the claim that a Mecca sermon is mere freelancing. Saudi authorities have long regulated mosque preaching, including requiring imams to commit to not using Friday sermons for making inflammatory remarks – and to dismissing preachers who cross official redlines.
In 2023, the Saudi cabinet established a body linked to the king to supervise the imams and religious affairs of the Grand Mosque in Mecca and the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. In other words, what is said from those pulpits should be treated as state-signaled messaging, not a rogue flourish.
MBS’s own words on normalization underline the point. In September 2023, he told Fox News: “Every day we get closer,” while stressing that “the Palestinian issue is very important.” In September 2024, he publicly declared that Saudi Arabia would not recognize Israel without an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
Riyadh is not offering peace for free. Israel should not be asked to accept hate for free. Israel should want peace with Riyadh. A serious relationship could help deter Iran, deepen regional cooperation, and open doors that have been closed for decades.
Nevertheless, The Jerusalem Post has repeatedly said normalization should not be at any cost, especially not at the expense of Jewish dignity and safety. We argued that explicitly in our September 26, 2023, editorial: “Netanyahu must not let his coalition interfere with Saudi normalization,” and in a later editorial: “Normalization with Saudi Arabia is not at any cost.”
So, what must be nonnegotiable? Saudi Arabia must first end official, or state-tolerated, antisemitic incitement, especially from platforms tied to the holy sites. This entails establishing unambiguous guidelines, enforcing them, and publicly denouncing any instances of transgression.
Second, any normalization track should include measurable benchmarks on education and religious discourse. Saudi Arabia has shown it can revise textbooks when it chooses to, and researchers have documented the removal of some classic anti-Jewish tropes and modern antisemitic conspiracies from Saudi curricula. That progress makes a Mecca sermon that curses Jews more baffling.
Third, the US should use its leverage honestly. If defense guarantees, advanced aircraft, and nuclear cooperation are on the table, then so is a demand for the basic dignity and safety of Jews in Israel and the Diaspora.
Normalization can still occur and remain historical. But if the price is to normalize the idea that Jews may be cursed from the world’s most revered pulpit, while diplomats applaud “progress,” then the deal is not peace; it is a mirage, and it will not protect anyone.
END
ISRAEL/GREECE, CYPRUS/TURKEY
TURKEY wants Israel’s huge discovery of natural gas (and oil) off the coast of Haifa. It claims that the discovery is part of Turkey because they claim that south Cyprus is still theirs and not Greece’s. They have sent naval ships trying to reclaim the find but Israel continues to intercept them. This is the background behind this.
artificial intelligence;
Background on the Dispute Between Turkey and Israel Over Natural Gas Discoveries Off Israel’s Coast
The conflict between Turkey and Israel over natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean largely revolves around major offshore discoveries off Israel’s coast, such as the Tamar field in 2009 and the Leviathan field in 2010, which together hold significant reserves estimated at around 3,000 billion cubic meters (BCM) across the region, according to a 2010 U.S. Geological Survey assessment.
tandfonline.com
These finds, part of a broader “Gas Decade” from 2010 to 2020, transformed the energy landscape but intensified geopolitical tensions, as they overlapped with unresolved maritime boundary disputes and historical rivalries.
tandfonline.com
While the gas fields are primarily in Israel’s claimed Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the broader dispute involves export routes, regional alliances, and Turkey’s claims that challenge UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) principles, which Turkey has not ratified due to concerns over equitable maritime delimitation in semi-enclosed seas like the Mediterranean.
tandfonline.com
Historical Context and Strained Bilateral RelationsTurkey-Israel relations deteriorated sharply after the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, where Israeli forces raided a Turkish aid flotilla bound for Gaza in international waters (within Israel’s EEZ under UNCLOS interpretations), resulting in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens. mei.edu +1 This event, occurring amid Israel’s gas boom, ended a period of potential energy cooperation, such as earlier discussions on pipelines routing Israeli gas through Turkey to Europe (e.g., from Ceyhan to Haifa). mei.edu +1 Prior to this, Turkey had positioned itself as a key energy transit hub, but the fallout led Israel to sign a maritime boundary agreement with Cyprus in December 2010, aligning with UNCLOS and excluding Turkey.
tandfonline.com
The incident also tied into broader issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Turkey’s support for Gaza, further politicizing energy talks.The roots of the maritime tensions trace back further, including the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which left Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean boundaries ambiguous, complicating sovereignty over islands and continental shelves.
sipri.org
Greece-Turkey disputes in the Aegean spilled over into the Eastern Mediterranean, with gas discoveries amplifying the stakes.
sipri.org
Bilateral Greek-Turkish talks on these issues, started in 2002, collapsed in 2016, coinciding with rising energy exploration.
sipri.org
Key Developments in the Gas DisputeThe discoveries prompted Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt to pursue unilateral exploration, leading to overlapping claims. For instance, Cyprus signed EEZ agreements with Egypt (2003), Lebanon (2007), and Israel (2010), which Turkey contested as infringing on the rights of Turkish Cypriots in Northern Cyprus (recognized only by Turkey).
mei.edu
Turkey responded by signing its own delimitation deal with Northern Cyprus in 2011 and conducting seismic surveys escorted by naval vessels.
mei.edu
Egypt’s Zohr field discovery in 2015 further escalated regional interest, but Turkey viewed these as attempts to sideline it. mei.edu +1In 2016, amid brief normalization, Turkey and Israel negotiated a potential gas pipeline, but talks failed due to political infeasibility (routes through Lebanon or Syria were off-limits) and economic disagreements.
mei.edu This led Israel to pivot toward the EastMed Pipeline project (signed in 2018 by Israel, Greece, and Cyprus), aiming to export gas to Europe via Greece while bypassing Turkey. mei.edu +1 The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), formed in January 2019 by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Jordan, and others (later including Italy and France), institutionalized this exclusion, focusing on regional energy markets without Turkey. sipri.org +2Turkey’s countermeasures included adopting the “Mavi Vatan” (Blue Homeland) doctrine in 2019, asserting expansive EEZ claims (up to 462,000 km²) based on equitable principles rather than UNCLOS, and rejecting the maritime rights of islands like Crete.
tandfonline.com A pivotal move was the November 2019 maritime boundary agreement with Libya’s Government of National Accord, which redrew maps to cut across Greek and Cypriot claims, tied to Turkish military support in Libya’s civil war. sipri.org +2 This deal, combined with Turkish drilling vessels (e.g., Yavuz, Fatih) operating in disputed waters, led to military standoffs, such as the 2020 collision between Greek and Turkish frigates near the seismic vessel Oruç Reis.
sipri.orgCauses of Tensions and Broader ImplicationsThe core issues include Turkey’s isolation from energy alliances, driven by its Cyprus stance (insisting on Turkish Cypriot rights), historical animosities with Greece and Cyprus, and post-2011 Arab Spring policies that alienated Egypt and others (e.g., support for the Muslim Brotherhood).
mei.edu Turkey argues that UNCLOS-based agreements are maximalist and unfair, preferring negotiations or International Court of Justice referrals, while viewing the EMGF and EastMed as efforts to undermine its role as an energy conduit to Europe.
tandfonline.com Militarization has risen, with naval escorts and threats, though diplomacy (e.g., NATO deconfliction in 2020) has prevented full escalation.
sipri.orgRecent Updates (as of 2025)By 2025, the EastMed Pipeline was effectively canceled following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which shifted European energy priorities away from long-term projects.
tandfonline.com Disputes remain unresolved, with Turkey maintaining its operations in contested areas and no major breakthroughs in Turkey-Israel relations or broader delimitations.
tandfonline.com The gas volumes, while substantial, have not been transformative enough to force reconciliation, leaving the region in a state of managed tension rather than open conflict.
end
ISRAEL/EGYPT
Israeli PM Netanyahu announces $35 billion gas deal with Egypt as US pushes for summit
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a joint news conference with US President Donald Trump in the White House on September 29. Win McNamee/Getty ImagesTel Aviv —
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35 billion gas deal with Egypt on Wednesday evening as the US pushes for a summit between the leaders of the two countries.
In a televised statement, Netanyahu hailed the agreement as “the largest gas deal in Israel’s history.” He said the deal was valued at 112 billion shekels (about $34.6 billion).
The deal involves American energy company Chevron and will supply gas to Egypt.
“This deal greatly strengthens Israel’s status as a regional energy power and contributes to stability in our region. It encourages other companies to invest in gas exploration in Israel’s economic waters,” said Netanyahu.
According to an Israeli source familiar with the matter, Israel had delayed the official approval of the deal for months, ultimately folding under pressure from the Trump administration.
US President Donald Trump has been trying to arrange a summit between Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as he pursues regional peace deals and an expansion of the Abraham Accords.
Egypt has said the gas agreement with Israel is strictly a commercial transaction, concluded solely on economic and investment grounds, with no political motivations.
The agreement “does not involve any political dimensions or understandings whatsoever,” Diaa Rashwan, chairman of the Egypt State Information Service, said in a statement Thursday.
“The deal fits within Egypt’s broader strategic goals, particularly the country’s objective to reinforce its position as the key regional gas trading hub in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Rashwan added.
Rashwan affirmed Egypt’s firm stance on the Palestinian cause, underscoring the country’s unwavering support for the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
Israel and Egypt signed a landmark peace agreement in 1979, but the leaders of the countries have not met publicly in almost a decade.
A second Israeli source said the announcement from Netanyahu was part of an effort to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Netanyahu and Sisi.
Netanyahu is set to travel to the United States later this month to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Netanyahu was briefly set to attend the peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt in October with Trump before suddenly backing out.
Egypt has played a key role in mediation efforts throughout the Gaza war, but relations between Netanyahu and Sisi have long been frayed.
CNN’s Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed to this report.
END
In move to deter Turkey, Israel explores creation of rapid-response force with Greece, Cyprus
The initiative is part of a broader effort to deter Turkey’s military and strategic activities in the eastern Mediterranean.
Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pose for a photo before signing a deal to build the EastMed subsea pipeline to carry natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe, at the Zappeion Hall in Athens, Gree(photo credit: REUTERS/ALKIS KONSTANTINIDIS)ByAMICHAI STEIN, YONAH JEREMY BOBDECEMBER 18, 2025 19:27Updated: DECEMBER 18, 2025 22:16
Senior officials from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are discussing the possibility of establishing a rapid-response force composed of units from the armed forces of the three countries, three people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post.
The initiative is part of a broader effort to deter Turkey’s military and strategic activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, they said.
According to the sources, the security initiative is currently in the preliminary review and planning stages.
It is intended to strengthen strategic military cooperation among the three countries amid rising regional tensions. The force would not be a permanent standing unit but one that could be deployed quickly in times of crisis on land, at sea, or in the air.
There is significant involvement from the IAF, the IDF Foreign Relations Department, and the Israel Navy, coordinated through inter-service and government channels, an informed source told the Post.
Next week, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides are due to arrive in Israel for a summit with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In recent weeks, there have been numerous meetings on the subject.
In November, the Prime Minister’s Office said Military Secretary Major-General Roman Gofman and Acting National Security Council Adviser Gil Reich held “meetings on political and regional issues with their Greek counterparts” in Greece.
IAF Commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar reportedly met with senior air force officials from Cyprus and Greece in a strategic session to strengthen cooperation.
On Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz met with his Cypriot counterpart in Israel.
The concept they discussed envisions a unit of about 2,500 personnel, some 1,000 soldiers each from Greece and Israel, and 500 from Cyprus, Greek news site Tanea reported.
Discussions on the proposal are ongoing, two sources told the Post.
The establishment of such a force, and even discussions about its establishment, is intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“If you take this and you add it to the deepened military cooperation of the last 15 years, to me this could be a natural extension of this cooperation,” Angelos Athanasopoulos, a Greek geopolitics and security expert, told the Post. “And the main country from which it will receive a backlash will be Turkey. Following recent comments in both Greek and Israeli press, this really raises some eyebrows in Turkey.”
Ankara is seeking to turn Syria into a Turkish satellite state, including the deployment of air-defense systems aimed at aircraft and missiles in Syrian territory.
At the same time, Turkey is pursuing involvement in the multinational force in the Gaza Strip and is holding talks with both rival governments in Libya in an attempt to negotiate a new maritime agreement. Such a move could allow it to become a dominant player in the maritime space of the Northern and Eastern Mediterranean.
In recent years, Israel has conducted several exercises with the navies and air forces of Greece and Cyprus, including trilateral drills. According to reports in Greece, the Israeli Spike NLOS missile system, known as the “Long Lance,” is transitioning in the Hellenic Army from procurement to operational integration.
Publications indicate the goal is to achieve full operational capability by next summer, with a focus on deployment around the eastern Aegean islands and the Evros River region.
The reports say this is not just about acquiring long-range missiles but about embedding a full networked system of sensors, command, and control, giving smaller units a significant and accurate fire capability.
“If there is a force, a standing force probably, I think we will see more trilateral exercises of this kind,” Athanasopoulos said. “And who knows if other countries will also participate. So, indeed, a new course creates a denser network of synergies.”
end
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/USA
HAL TURNER…
US Drives a Stake Thru Vampire-Europe’s Money Grab Against Russia
Hal Turner World December 18, 2025 Hits: 15350
The United States has notified the European Union that it wants frozen Russian sovereign assets incorporated into a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine war.
That position immediately exposes a major problem for Brussels.
Europe has already functionally collateralized Russian central bank assets — not through formal seizure, but by pledging windfall profits and future proceeds from those assets to support long-term financing and loan structures for Ukraine.
This has been publicly acknowledged in EU and G7 policy frameworks over the past year.
That financing model was built on a core assumption: Either the war would continue indefinitely, or Russia would be decisively defeated.
A negotiated peace breaks that assumption.
Once the United States asserts that frozen Russian assets must be treated as part of a settlement framework, rather than permanent war financing, several consequences follow. The EU’s legal justification weakens, the collateral underpinning those loans becomes unstable, and the long-standing claim that the asset freeze is “temporary” becomes difficult to sustain.
This is not merely a diplomatic disagreement. It is a forced accounting event — one with potential implications for Euroclear, EU financial institutions, and member-state balance sheets.
This context helps explain recent developments in Brussels. Over the past days and weeks, EU leadership has moved rapidly to bypass vetoes, expand emergency authorities, and escalate rhetoric — including renewed NATO statements about preparing for wider conflict.
The underlying strategy appears straightforward: Treat frozen Russian assets as a de facto war chest.
In practice, that step had already been taken through collateralization, even if formal seizure was avoided.
President Trump is now explicitly challenging that structure.
By calling this out, he undermines the financial logic that sustained the war:
Asset freezes repurposed as leverage, sanctions transformed into financing tools, permanent emergency governance, and debt-backed escalation. Without those mechanisms, the EU’s war-financing model becomes difficult to maintain.
This also explains the visible urgency in European responses.
If a settlement occurs, the assets must be unwound, the loans lose their effective backing, legal exposure surfaces, and the financial burden remains in Europe — not in Russia, and not in the United States.
That is not primarily a geopolitical issue.
It is a financial stability issue.
Ukraine was never only a battlefield. It functioned as a pressure point within a broader post-1971 Atlantic financial system that relies on sanctions, asset control, and emergency authorities to remain coherent.
By forcing the asset question into the open, Trump has touched that pressure point — and the system is beginning to strain.
Ending the war does more than stop the fighting.
It forces Europe to confront how frozen sovereign assets were already used, and what happens when a war-based financing model is interrupted by peace.
That is why peace has become more destabilizing to the EU than full scale war.
In short — Loan structures backed by frozen assets may have to be unwound, legal exposure clarified, and financial responsibility absorbed internally rather than deferred through emergency measures.
What was framed as temporary leverage during wartime becomes a permanent liability in peacetime.
The risk for the EU is not diplomatic embarrassment, but potential financial and institutional collapse
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
First-Ever Ukrainian Attack On A Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker In Mediterranean Sea
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 12:00 PM
Ukraine is hailing a “new, unprecedented special operation” after a Russia-linked oil tanker was attacked off the coast of Libya. Needless to say these waters are very distant from anywhere Ukraine operates in the war with Moscow forces.
Officials within the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) are being quoted in international reports as saying the SBU deployed a drone in the Mediterranean which struck a so-called “shadow fleet” tanker used by Russia.
This would mark the first ever such Ukrainian attack on Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean sea, involving aerial drones utilized some 1,250 miles (2,000km) from its borders.
No details were given as to precisely how such an operation so distant from Ukraine’s borders was carried out, but the ship was reportedly empty at the time of being hit, and so potential environmental disasters have been ruled out.
The now damaged tanker has since been identified as the Oman-flagged Qendil. It was subject of a series of explosions after the drone directly hit its deck.
The SBU released footage of the attack to several Western media outlets, including BBC:
The SBU told the BBC this was its first such attack in neutral waters. BBC Verify has confirmed the shape of the ship in the video is consistent with available pictures of the Qendil. We also put frames from the video through a reverse-image search on Google to check it is new.
Location data transmitted by the Qendil put it 96 nautical miles south-west of the Greek island of Crete a few hours ago. Ship-tracking tool MarineTraffic shows the tanker entered the Mediterranean from the Suez Canal on 16 December.
Watch brief drone footage as the attack played out:
No details were given as to precisely how such an operation so distant from Ukraine’s borders was carried out, but the ship was reportedly empty at the time of being hit, and so potential environmental disasters have been ruled out.
The now damaged tanker has since been identified as the Oman-flagged Qendil. It was subject of a series of explosions after the drone directly hit its deck.
The SBU released footage of the attack to several Western media outlets, including BBC:
The SBU told the BBC this was its first such attack in neutral waters. BBC Verify has confirmed the shape of the ship in the video is consistent with available pictures of the Qendil. We also put frames from the video through a reverse-image search on Google to check it is new.
Location data transmitted by the Qendil put it 96 nautical miles south-west of the Greek island of Crete a few hours ago. Ship-tracking tool MarineTraffic shows the tanker entered the Mediterranean from the Suez Canal on 16 December.
Watch brief drone footage as the attack played out:
Ukraine emphasized and boasted: “The SBU for the first time hit a tanker of the Russian ‘shadow fleet’ in the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea.”
It follows an SBU strike on a Russian Kilo-class submarine which was docked at a key Russian Black Sea port, utilizing an underwater drone which seemed to easily get past all Russian defensive counter-measures. Ukraine has been losing ground along the front lines in east, but has become more and more effective at these types of irregular warfare operations – yet it will do nothing to change the tide of battlelines.
Ukraine emphasized and boasted: “The SBU for the first time hit a tanker of the Russian ‘shadow fleet’ in the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea.”
It follows an SBU strike on a Russian Kilo-class submarine which was docked at a key Russian Black Sea port, utilizing an underwater drone which seemed to easily get past all Russian defensive counter-measures. Ukraine has been losing ground along the front lines in east, but has become more and more effective at these types of irregular warfare operations – yet it will do nothing to change the tide of battlelines.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
China Sues Sen. Schmitt And Others For Defamation Over COVID-19 Lawsuit
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 – 08:05 PM
Years ago, I called the pandemic arguably the greatest case of negligence in the history of torts. However, with millions dead and hundreds of billions expended, it was unlikely that China would ever be truly held accountable for its actions. Those failures include not only the alleged release of the virus from the Wuhan lab but also China’s concealment of the release until it had spread globally. A $24 billion judgment was secured in Missouri earlier this year, but China defied the verdict.
Now, it has countersued, naming former Missouri Attorney General and now Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., among others as defendants. Even by the standards of the Chinese legal system, this action is legally absurd. However, in the CCP-controlled court system, the verdict is little in doubt.
China posted a notice of the lawsuit in Wuhan, naming the state of Missouri and Andrew T. Bailey, in addition to Schmitt. Bailey is listed in the notice as the current Missouri Attorney General, but he recently left that job to become the FBI’s co-deputy director.
After international service under the International Convention on the Service Abroad of Judicial and Extrajudicial Documents in Civil or Commercial Matters, the defendants are called to appear before the Intermediate People’s Court of Wuhan Municipality of Hubei Province, Jianghan District in Wuhan. They are being sued for $356.4 billion Chinese Yuan, or $50.5 billion — just over twice the amount awarded in Missouri.
The complaint demands “public apologies on New York Times, CNN, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, YouTube and other American media or internet platforms, and People’s Daily, Xinhuanet and other Chinese media or internet platforms…”
The filing is premised on their bringing a successful action against China in United States courts and effectively defaming Wuhan, Chinese officials, and the government generally. I have taught torts for over 30 years and would be hard pressed to come up with a more meritless claim, but law means little in the Chinese court system.
The Missouri action named the Chinese government, various ministries, the Communist Party of China, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences as defendants. They were found to have withheld information about the COVID-19 virus, failed to contain the outbreak, and actively hoarded high-quality personal protective equipment (PPE) while producing and selling lower-quality PPE to the rest of the world.
After securing the largest damage award in that state’s history, the current Attorney General filed with the U.S. State Department for diplomatic provided service to China in November 2025. Once service is confirmed, Missouri can return to the district court to obtain certification of compliance with service and seek to seize Chinese-owned assets, including real property, financial interests, and other holdings tied to the defendants.
That is what clearly prompted this tit-for-tat litigation in Wuhan.
The Chinese lawsuit names the defendants as an economic and reputational threat to the People’s Republic of China. It argues that their actions have had “negative effects on the soft power” of Wuhan and have “belittled the social evaluation” as well as adversely affected the “productivity and commercialization of scientific and technological achievements” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
It cites the defendants as having engaged in “vexatious litigation” that “defamed Plaintiffs’ reputation, resulting in huge economic losses of the Plaintiffs, and deeply endangering sovereignty, security and development interests of China.”
Obviously, this is not vexatious litigation in any actual legal sense. The Missouri litigation was based on long-established legal precedent, even if the judgment itself against a foreign nation was unprecedented in size.
The notion that these allegations constitute defamation is absurd. First, these allegations are well-established by various countries. China enlisted the World Health Organization (WHO) and others to echo its denials about the virus’s origin. Even after the Biden Administration sought to suppress evidence and views implicating China, federal agencies and experts ultimately refuted those denials.
Even under the more demanding standard that applies to public officials and public figures (known as the “actual malice” standard), China would fall short. There is ample and credible evidence to support these statements, including findings from other countries.
There is also a type of group libel element to the Chinese action.
Such lawsuits are very difficult to maintain. In Neiman-Marcus v. Lait (1952), a New York federal district court addressed a defamation claim arising from the publication of the book “U.S.A. Confidential.” The author wrote that “some” models and “all” saleswomen at the Neiman-Marcus department store in Dallas were “call girls.” It also claimed that “most” of the salesmen in the men’s store were “faggots.” The store had nine models, 382 saleswomen and 25 salesmen. The court found the size of the group of women was too big to satisfy a group libel standard. However, the size of the group of salesmen was viewed as sufficiently small to go to trial.
Here, China is suggesting that not only was the entire Wuhan staff but the entire nation was effectively defamed. That absurd claim was actually tried by a Chinese American group in the United States over Trump’s reference to COVID-19 as Kung Flu. The Chinese American Civil Rights Coalition brought that meritless case, which was quickly dismissed.
China is clearly hoping to engineer a verdict and then somehow use it to counterbalance or negate the Missouri judgment. It will still be tough for Missouri to ever collect on this judgment. However, the verdict was an important effort to secure a judgment on China’s conduct leading to a worldwide pandemic.
One has to assume that the Wuhan court will dutifully render a verdict to counter Missouri.
It will do little beyond confirming in the mind of many that China is as nimble at manipulating the legal system as it is at allegedly manipulating spike proteins.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1715 DOWN 0.0009 PTS OR 9 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE ALL GREEN
USA/ YEN 157.26 UP 1.690 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3383 UP .0007 OR 7 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3792 UP 0.0015 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.08 PTS OR 0.36%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 192.40 PTS OR 0.75%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.09%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 192.40 PTS OR 0.75%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.08 POINTS OR 0.36%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.07 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 500.00 PTS OR 1.02%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 4328.60
silver:$66.07
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.32 UP 23 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRTIDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.151 % DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +1.963% DOWN 2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.378 UP 3 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.287 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.5111 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8575 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1738 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.40 DOWN 0.096 OR YEN IS UP 10 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4870 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.213 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.3778
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 7.0408 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.0328
TURKISH LIRA: 42.74 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.953 DOWN 2 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.378 UP 3 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.112% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.803 DOWN 3 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.452 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4331.70
SILVER AT 10;00: 65.81
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 59.65 PTS OR 0.61%
GERMAN DAX: UP 88.90pts or 0.37%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 0.74 pts or 0.01%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 37.70pts or 0.22%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 294.27. or 0.66%
WTI Oil price 56.50 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 60.01 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.81 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 68/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.409 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.956 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1718 DOWN 0.0006 OR 6 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3345 UP 0.0002 OR 2 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5350 up 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.268 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.023 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.423 UP 5 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.58 UP 2.012 OR YEN DOWN 201 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3792 UP 0.0015 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 56.65
Brent OIL: 60.57
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.149
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 PTS to 4.828%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.487 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.470 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.992 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.30 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.80 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80-.07 DOWN 0 AND 27/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,342.50(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 67.21 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 153.04 OR 0.38 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 301.44 PTS OR 1.31%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.14 DOWN 1.73 PTS OR 10.25.%
GLD: $ 399.02 UP 0.45 PTS OR 0.11%
SLV/ $60.98 UP 1.61 PTS OR OR 2.71%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 355.40 PTS OR 1.13%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Last Full Trading Week Of The Year Ends With Record OpEx, Record Volume, & Record Precious Metals Prices
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1730 DOWN 0.0011 PTS OR 11 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE ALL MIXED
USA/ YEN 155.82 UP 0.333 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES
GBP/USA 1.3320 DOWN .0096 OR 96 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3774 UP 0.0019 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS//CDN DOLLAR STILL GETTING KILLED)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.09 PTS OR 0.16%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 5.72 PTS OR 0.02%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.33%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 5.72 PTS OR 0.02%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.09 POINTS OR 0.16%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.33 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 433.28 PTS OR 0.88%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4327.25
silver:$66.20
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.10 UP 10 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.185 % UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.024% UP 4 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.424 UP 4 BASIS PTS//DEADLY
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.319 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.5430 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8941 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1735 UP 0.0011 OR 11 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.12 UP 1.543 OR YEN IS DOWN 154 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5230 UP 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.254 UP 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3776
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN AT 7.0410 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE DOWN TO 7.0360
TURKISH LIRA: 42.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +2.024 UP 6 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.424 UP 4 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.138% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.822 UP 2 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.488 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4342.70
SILVER AT 10;00: 66.42
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 69.45 PTS OR 0.65%
GERMAN DAX: UP 238.91pts or 1.00%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 64.59 pts or 0.80%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 194.40pts or 1.15%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 363.80. or 0.80%
WTI Oil price 56.56 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 60.00 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.97 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 17/ 100
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.81
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.473 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.996 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1725 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3385 UP 0.0012 OR 12 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4770 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.211 DOWN 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.961 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.378 UP 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.57 UP 0.086 OR YEN DOWN 9 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3778 DOWN 0.0005 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 56.05
Brent OIL: 59.70
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.115
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 PTS to 4.799%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.464 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.406 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.968 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.09 UP 9 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 42.73 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.81 DOWN 0 AND 69/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,334.30(3:30 PM)
SILVER: 65.42 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 66.31 OR 0.14 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 311.60 PTS OR 1.37%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.31 DOWN 1.31 PTS OR 7.45.%
GLD: $ 398.57 DOWN 0.72 PTS OR 0.18%
SLV/ $59.32 DOWN 0.94 PTS OR OR 1.58%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 241.50 PTS OR 0.77%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Last Full Trading Week Of The Year Ends With Record OpEx, Record Volume, & Record Precious Metals Prices
DATA RELEASES
UMich Survey Sees ‘Current Conditions’ In America As The Worst In 47 Years
Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – 10:26 AM
The final print for UMich’s sentiment survey for December was a doozy…
While the headline sentiment gauge and Expectations ticked up, Current Conditions slipped further…
…to an all-time record low… yes… worse than during Oct 1987’s crash, 9/11, the GFC, and COVID…
This – as you might guess – is very unusual with stocks at record highs and as we have labored extensively this year, UMich’s survey seems rife with bias
UMich claims that post-pandemic frustration with high prices persists…
Which is incredible since inflation expectations are plunging…
As Democrats realize their TDS-driven hyperinflation fears were utter bullshit after all (shame on all those MSM pundits)…
Buying conditions for durable goods fell for the fifth straight month, whereas expectations for personal finances and business conditions rose.
“Despite some signs of improvement to close out the year, sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
Labor market expectations lifted a bit this month, though a solid majority of 63% of consumers still expects unemployment to continue rising during the next year.
Hsu concludes: “This year, we saw a spike in inflation expectations that softened very quickly, while high-price mentions have remained consistently high. It appears that consumers have yet to internalize the post-pandemic level of prices as a new normal, which influences how they view the economy.“
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Suspect In Brown University Attack Found Dead, Was A Non-US Citizen
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 – 09:50 PM
Update (2150ET):
Local station Boston 25 News reports that the suspect in the Brown University attack was found dead at the Extra Space Storage facility on Hampshire Road in Salem, New Hampshire.
“A law enforcement source tells me the Brown University shooting suspect is not a U.S. citizen but a legal permanent resident,” Boston 25’s Ted Daniel wrote on X.
Police identified the shooter as Claudio Neves Valente, a Portuguese national and Brown student…
Image of the shooting suspect.
Boston 25 News also noted, “Police sources told Boston 25 News on Thursday that they are investigating possible ties between Saturday’s shooting at Brown University and Monday’s deadly shooting of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor in Brookline.”
* * *
Authorities on Thursday continued the search for the killer of a world-renowned Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor and fusion energy physicist who was shot and killed inside his home near Boston earlier this week – a suspicious attack that occurred just days after the deadly shooting at Brown University.
MIT professor and fusion energy physicist Nuno F. Gomes Loureiro, 47, was pronounced dead at a local area hospital on Tuesday after being shot multiple times at his Brookline home on Monday night. The Norfolk district attorney’s office and local authorities said they had launched a homicide investigation.
“It’s not hyperbole to say MIT is where you go to find solutions to humanity’s biggest problems,” Loureiro recently said when he was named the new head of MIT’s Plasma Science Lab. “Fusion energy will change the course of human history.”
The murder of Loureiro occurred two days after the Brown University shooting, which took place fewer than 50 miles away.
Local media WPRI Rhode Island reports that investigators are now searching for a possible link between the two shootings.
Senior law enforcement sources say federal, state, and local authorities have uncovered evidence suggesting the two incidents may be connected, marking a major shift in the investigation. This contrasts with earlier statements from the FBI’s Boston field office, which said there appeared to be no connection.
At Brown, the gunman killed Ella Cook and Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov. Cook served as vice president of the Ivy League school’s College Republicans. In both cases, the shooting suspects remain at large.
“Nuno was not only a brilliant scientist, he was a brilliant person,” Dennis Whyte, a fellow MIT professor, wrote in an obituary posted by the university.
Whyte noted, “He shone a bright light as a mentor, friend, teacher, colleague and leader and was universally admired for his articulate, compassionate manner. His loss is immeasurable to our community at the PSFC, NSE and MIT, and around the entire fusion and plasma research world.”
By midweek, Israeli news publication The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli officials were examining intelligence suggesting a possible Iranian connection to Loureiro’s shooting death. The outlet cautioned that the assessment has not been verified and is not supported at this stage by official findings from U.S. investigative authorities.
Separately, The Times of Israel published a blog post by journalist Rafael Baptista, who wrote:
Imagine having unlimited energy. Cheap, clean energy. What would that do to entrenched interests and powerful monopolies? Think of the hole it would blow in the fossil fuel industry. And national security? If I were a Putin or a Khamenei, I wouldn’t be happy about a technological leap coming from his research. Even Israeli authorities haven’t ruled out Iranian involvement. A breakthrough like this would leave such regimes permanently behind. It would redraw the balance of global power.
The strange shooting deaths occurred just days apart and less than an hour away from each other at two of America’s leading Ivy League schools.
END
Trump Halts Diversity Green Card Lottery After Brown, MIT Shootings Trace To Non-Citizen
7:20 AM
President Trump ordered the suspension of the U.S. green card diversity lottery after federal investigators said the suspect in the Brown University shooting and the killing of an MIT nuclear scientist was a non-citizen who entered the country through the program.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote in an X post late Thursday that, at Trump’s direction, she had ordered U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to pause the Diversity Immigrant Visa (DV) program.
“At President Trump’s direction, I am immediately directing USCIS to pause the DV1 program to ensure no more Americans are harmed by this disastrous program,” Noem said.
She continued, “The Brown University shooter, Claudio Manuel Neves Valente entered the United States through the diversity lottery immigrant visa program (DV1) in 2017 and was granted a green card. This heinous individual should never have been allowed in our country.”
“In 2017, President Trump fought to end this program, following the devastating NYC truck ramming by an ISIS terrorist, who entered under the DV1 program, and murdered eight people,” Noem noted.
Court documents show Neves Valente, a Portuguese national, first entered the U.S. on a student visa to attend Brown University in 2000. After leaving the school, his whereabouts were unclear until 2017, when he received a DV and later permanent residency.
Neves Valente was found dead in a New Hampshire storage facility late Thursday, Providence Chief of Police Oscar Perez told reporters at a press conference.
The U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts released a complaint affidavit on X regarding Neves Valente that detailed his immigration status and connected him as the suspect in the MIT shooting of the nuclear scientist.
The diversity visa program permits up to 50,000 green cards per year through a random lottery. Prioritizing randomness over skills appears to be a national security threat – time for reforms.
There is still no official motive from authorities, nor any confirmation on whether either shooting was targeted. Israeli news outlets have suggested the shootings could have been part of an overseas plot.
END
“Largest Ever Retail Theft Ring” In Queens Busted After Stealing $2.2 Million From Home Depot
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 – 10:10 PM
Prosecutors in Queens say they have dismantled what they describe as the largest organized retail theft ring ever prosecuted in the borough, after a crew allegedly stole more than $2.2 million worth of merchandise from Home Depot stores across nine states, according to ABC.
Thirteen people were charged in a sweeping 780-count indictment that accuses the group of carrying out 319 thefts at 128 Home Depot locations in New York and eight other states. On some days, prosecutors say, the crew stole as little as $1,800 in goods and as much as nearly $35,000. Authorities said the volume of stolen tools and construction equipment was enough to “build an unknown number of houses.”
Investigators allege the defendants met in Queens to plan their thefts, then split into teams that scouted store inventories online the night before targeting specific locations. The stolen merchandise was transported back to Queens and resold, either through a Brooklyn storefront or on Facebook Marketplace. According to prosecutors, the group sometimes hit the same Home Depot up to four times in a single day, taking breaks for meals in between.
Governor Kathy Hochul and Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz announced the takedown Thursday. “Since taking office, my highest priority has been driving down crime and keeping New Yorkers safe,” Hochul said, crediting new funding for an organized retail theft task force and tougher laws for helping bring the case together. She said the effort has made New York safer for businesses, workers and shoppers.
Katz outlined the scope of the case, saying, “Thirteen defendants, over $2.2 million in merchandise, 319 incidents of theft, nine states and 128 separate Home Depot stores are the facts alleged, resulting in a 780-count indictment.” She added that her office worked closely with state police to stop the operation.
Hochul said changes to larceny laws allowed investigators to combine multiple thefts, elevating cases from misdemeanors to felonies. “Since we changed the laws and put money behind this effort, retail theft crimes are down 14% in the city and across the state of New York,” she said.
Eleven of the suspects appeared before a judge Wednesday. One defendant remains at large, and the others face up to 25 years in prison if convicted. Katz said the arrests send a clear warning: “The message today is organized retail crime will not go unanswered in this borough.”
KING NEWS
| The King Report December 19, 2025 Issue 7643 | Independent View of the News |
| Nov CPI 2.7% y/y, 3.1% exp; Core CPI 2.6% y/y, 3.0% exp. We showed that the Trump BLS fudged the November NFP via a big change in the seasonal adjustment. Now, it appears that the Trump BLS fudged the November CPI! WSJ’s @NickTimiraos From @fcastofthemonth: “This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are.” Note: The Oct and Nov 2025 data values are not available due to the 2025 lapse in appropriationshttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Macro Edge Chief Econ @DonMiami3: When you leave everything out of the (above CPI) calculation, number goes down… It’s hilarious they even reported a headline off of this garbage today… @fcastofthemonth: Love the professionalism and rigor @BLS_gov for CPI. That said, did not love the FAQ they posted today. It left out key details of how the Nov index will be calc. If you read it literally, it imparts serious downward bias to the NSA, 2m avg headline and core, and YoY through Apr. NYT’s @colbyLsmith: November’s CPI report “should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy,” says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays… https://nytimes.com/live/2025/12/18/business/cpi-inflation-tariffs-fed#inflation-cpi-interest-rates Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, but Powell already warned to view this data with a “skeptical eye,” because of distortions caused by the gov’t shutdown.Economist @DianeSwonk: Whacky CPI data. Good news is it cooled to a 2.7% gain from a year ago.However, data collection didn’t begin until Nov 14, while much of data for October was “carried forward” at September levels. This was also true for imputation in November. That tends to zero out a change of up or down in any given data point within the series.In September, 40% of the data was imputed. We do not yet have the imputed figures for November.Suffice it to say, we should take the data with a grain of salt, much like was true with the employment data. We should get a better read on both employment and inflation in the data for December. This is really hard losing so much data and the staff that calculates it. ‘Swiss Cheese’ CPI Report Raises Doubts About US Inflation Data – BBG The BLS admits that if it does NOT have price data from a region, it uses the data from a different area! BLS: “For example, in the case of bread, if all prices are missing in the Washington, DC, area, they would be imputed first based on observed price changes for bread in the South Atlantic region. If this region has no collected bread data, then observed price changes for bread in a different region is chosen. If all prices for a category are unavailable across all regions, then carry-forward imputation is chosen…” https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/imputation.htm Rent and OER are, or were, ~34% of CPI and ~40% of Core CPI! And the Nov data is a guestimate! PS – The BLS is NOT displaying the weightings for the components of November CPI! The US 2-year note spiked to 99-28 5/8 on the CPI release; but it quickly reversed and rescinded its entire gain for the same reason that precious metal rallied sharply. US 2-year note, Central Time (The 2-year bounced to 99.27 by the NYSE close) “The last administration and their allies in Congress brought in millions of migrants, and gave them taxpayer-funded housing, while your rent and housing costs skyrocketed… Over 60% of growth in the rental market came from foreign migrants… For the first time in 50 years, we are now seeing reverse migration… leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans.” “I negotiated directly with the drug companies in foreign nations to which were taken advantage of our country for many decades to slash prices on drugs and pharmaceuticals by as much as 400 500 and even 600% in other words, your drug costs will be plummeting downward, and I use the threat of tariffs to get foreign countries who would never have done it to pay the cost of this giant dollar reduction…” “The first of these unprecedented price reductions will be available starting in January through a new website, Trumprx.gov, and these big price cuts will greatly reduce the cost of health care.You’ll get much better healthcare at a much lower price. The only losers will be insurance companies that have gotten rich, and the Democrat Party, which is totally controlled by those same insurance companies. They will not be happy, but that’s okay with me because you, THE PEOPLE, will finally be getting great healthcare at a lower cost.” “Under these cuts, many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000 a year, and next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time.” “Within the next 12 months, we will have opened 1,600 new electrical generating plants, a record. Very soon, prices on electricity and everything else will fall dramatically.” One Generic Cancer Drug Costs $15. Or $134. Or $13,000 – BBGHundreds of hospitals across the US are marking up old cancer treatments – in some cases hundreds of times what Medicare pays– Ida Martin’s first chemotherapy treatment at Rush University Medical Center cost her health plan $13,560. When she went down the street to a clinic for her next infusion three weeks later, the price dropped to $134… The clinic was in the Rush system… “They do it because they can get away with it.”… Abject greed will eventually induce nationalization of some industries to avert ‘pitchforks & torches.’ Banks, much of healthcare, defense, etc. already fully dependent on government but keep the spoils. TRUMP announces $1,776 bonuses for military service members: “Nobody deserves it more than our military.” https://t.co/svyQ5cCd6E @TrumpWarRoom: HUD @SecretaryTurner: “59% of illegal alien families use one or more welfare programs in our country, costing about $42 billion a year.“https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/2001720102870569422 Positive aspects of previous sessionThe Expiry Week Rally finally appeared, abetted by a dubious CPI Report.Fangs and trading sardines led the rally, of course. USHs were +15/32 at the NYSE close. Negative aspects of previous sessionTeam Trump is fudging US economic data apparently.The 2-year note rescinded its entire rally.Cryptocurrencies decline again. Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionWhen will accurate US economic data appear? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6783.13Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6816.13;6758.50 How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips – ReutersEUV machines sit at the heart of a technological Cold War. They use beams of extreme ultraviolet light to etch circuits thousands of times thinner than a human hair onto silicon wafers, currently a capability monopolized by the West. The smaller the circuits, the more powerful the chips… @kyleichan: China apparently has a working prototype of an EUV lithography machine.– Secret lab in Shenzhen– Team of former ASML engineers– Reverse-engineered parts– Yet to produce working chips– Deep involvement by Huawei– Aiming for use by 2028-2030 https://t.co/xZYwQ9Zywe @libsoftiktok: Chuck Schumer says that it “turns your stomach” and it’s “awful” that the military is taking out dangerous narco-terrorists who poison and kill Americans. Cannot make this up.(Acute TDS; whatever Trump does is “awful.”) https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2001331769380110501 Again, Dems have nothing to run on except ‘hate Trump and whatever he does or proposes.’ They cannot win on more illegal immigrants, give more freebies out, including to illegal immigrants; protect narco terrorists; or coddling criminals. New report warns that Illinois could face electricity shortages, soaring bills: CBS Newshttps://www.cbsnews.com/amp/chicago/news/new-report-warns-illinois-face-electricity-shortages-soaring-bills/ Fed Balance Sheet: +$17.558B on US Treasuries +$ 15.204B; Reserves: +$26.932B Today is expiration for December options and futures. GS estimates more than $7.1 trillion (a record) of derivatives will expire. Because it is the last expiration of the year, institutions can generate a wild session. The big game will be manipulators trying to boost the value of their expiring calls versus Army Ants and other traders that need to liquidate before 16:00 ET. Usually there is stock to buy on the NYSE opening to replace expiring futures. If the opening is lame or worse, traders playing for the opening rally will have a problem. Expected Economic Data: Nov Existing Home Sales 4.15m; Dec UM Sentiment 53.5, 1-yr Inflation 4.0%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.2%; NY Fed Pres Williams on CNBC at 8:30 ET ESHs are -6.50; NQHs are -36.75; Dec AU is -10.70; and USHs are -5/32 at 20:05 ET. Typically, traders buying ESHs and NQHs for the expected opening rally. But there is abnormally selling tonight, possibly on expectations that the BoJ will hike rates today and algos will sell the headlines. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6766; 100-day MA: 6642; 150-day MA: 6464; 200-day MA: 6236DJIA 50-day MA: 47,187; 100-day MA: 46,317; 150-day MA: 45,330; 200-day MA: 44,345(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)S&P 500 Index (6774.76 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 5799.20 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6875.25 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 6750.00 triggers a sell signal @Breaking911: Australian police rammed a vehicle near Bondi Beach and arrested five suspected Islamists. Authorities have not released further details, but there is speculation the group may have been planning another terrorist attack. https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2001602786316710206 @CBSNews: Authorities have identified a person of interest in the Brown shooting, sources say. A search is underway. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/person-of-interest-identified-in-brown-university-shooting-sources-say/ CNN: Police are investigating potential ties between the Brown University shooting and killing of an MIT professor… based on information that has emerged in the last 24 hours, the official said… (Rented Nissan Sentra SV found in New Hamp) https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/brown-university-shooting-suspect-12-18-25 @libbyemmons: Providence cops have yet to interview the students who were in the lecture hall when the gunman opened fire because Brown has not provided the info as to who was there and how to reach them. The Keystone Cops level of ineptitude is stunning.https://x.com/libbyemmons/status/2001498370632753557 Legal eagles opine that Brown University is petrified of civil lawsuits over the shootings. Brown University Received a Letter from 34 Human Rights Groups in August Requesting They Disable Their CCTV System (to shield protestors) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/12/17/brown-university-received-a-letter-from-34-human-rights-groups-in-august-requesting-they-disable-their-cctv-system/ @MarioNawfal:POLICE STOOD OUTSIDE WHILE BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTER ESCAPEDWhile students screamed and victims lay shot, Providence cops stood outside deciding where to park. Their radio chatter sounds like a bad improv skit.One officer talked about needing a day off. Another didn’t even know what building they were at. Meanwhile, no one had info on the shooter, and no one was rushing in. The suspect eventually slipped away. 10 were shot. 2 died. Brown University and the police failed, and now families are furious. And rightfully so! It wasn’t just chaos. It was incompetence with a badge, and the price was paid in blood.https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2001675341828342074 @yuribezmenov22: Heard from a Brown source that Ella Cook was an inside job. Location of her review session was never publicly posted. Interrogate everyone who was in that classroom. At minimum they should have more detailed descriptions of the suspect. Is Brown threatening them into silence? @JackPosobiec: I can now state I also have a 2nd Brown source that confirms this. This was not a regular study session, it was an ad hoc econ study session added on for finals @RedWave_Press: Brown University Provost Prof. Frank J. Doyle: “We have 1,200 cameras located throughout the campus… There are cameras in this building.” Reporter: “You’re saying there were cameras in the building? I was told yesterday there weren’t cameras in the building. The [Rhode Island] Attorney General [Peter Neronha] said, ‘old building no cameras attached to a new building with cameras.’” Brown University Provost Prof. Frank J. Doyle: “I believe he said there were two different phases of the building that might have two different levels of technology.” Reporter: “That doesn’t make sense.”https://x.com/RedWave_Press/status/2001416108834795998 @Cjpearson: MUST WATCH: You could not have found a more incompetent group of corrupt morons who are leading the investigation into the shooting at Brown University:– Brown’s head of campus security was fired from his last job for not having the proper credentials.– Brown’s President may have removed security cameras from the campus at the behest of Palestinian activists.– Providence’s City Council Chief of Staff is a “genderless bisexual” who was arrested for protesting at Trump tower.– Columbia-born Providence police chief has a nephew who ran one of the largest fentanyl rings on the east coast. https://x.com/Cjpearson/status/2001466160731066566 @alx: REPORTER: “The camera in that building Brown pulled off because the sanctuary city law we have. You don’t want to record illegal immigrants and you don’t want to provide footage to FBI… Brown University pulled the camera and you can’t identify the person”https://x.com/alx/status/2001446271203106966 @angertab: BUSTED! Looks like there was a camera in the room after all. Officials state there are no cameras in the older portion of the Barus and Holley building where the shooting occurred at Brown University. Google images shows several photos that appear to be from the same elevated location inside of “classroom 166” where the shooting is said to have occurred. Yesterday, a local news reporter erupted during a briefing by authorities. He claimed his friend is a Detective who is furious that evidence is being purposefully hidden from authorities.https://x.com/angertab/status/2001637494048329822 @ViralNewsNYC: For months now, NYPD has been running multiple Level 2 and Level 3 drill calls almost daily, sometimes several times a day across different precincts. A noticeable number are coming out of Queens and Staten Island…. Level 2 and Level 3 are among the highest-priority mobilizations for NYPD, requiring rapid, large-scale response. As someone who’s monitored scanners and reported on crime for years, this level of activity is not normal. Something doesn’t add up. British man jailed for 18 months for two anti-immigration tweets – Daily Mail. @PressSec: I have just been informed that the highly respected Board of the Kennedy Center, some of the most successful people from all parts of the world, have just voted unanimously to rename the Kennedy Center to the Trump-Kennedy Center, because of the unbelievable work President Trump has done over the last year in saving the building. Not only from the standpoint of its reconstruction, but also financially, and its reputation. Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump, and likewise, congratulations to President Kennedy, because this will be a truly great team long into the future! The building will no doubt attain new levels of success and grandeur.Trump appoints most of the Kennedy Center Board of Directors, including Maria Bartiromo, Susie Wiles, Pam Bondi etc., and they add his name to the center! https://www.kennedy-center.org/about-us/leadership/trustees/ What’s next? Trump-Arlington National Cemetery? Trump-Washington Memorial? Trump-Lincoln Memorial? Trump-Jefferson Memorial? Trump-Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial? Trump, D.C.? Presidential ‘Wall of Fame’ Gets A Savage Upgrade… Trump expands epic White House troll with ruthless plaques shredding Obama, Clinton, and Biden’s disastrous legacies (Childish & unseemly)https://modernity.news/2025/12/17/images-presidential-wall-of-fame-gets-a-savage-upgrade/ @Legacy411: Hamtramck, Michigan City Council voted to allow animal sacrifice for religious purposes in the city of Hamtramck… Savage people committing savage acts, who would have thought. Hamtramck used to be a beautiful Polish community until it was overrun and conquered by the third worlders. https://x.com/Legacy411/status/2001451535859941564 Bears Look to Indiana for New Stadium – A Stunning Rebuke of Pritzker’s ‘Business-Friendly’ Illinois – It would be a devastating symbol of Illinois’ declining competitiveness under one-party rule.https://www.illinoisreview.com/illinoisreview/2025/12/bears-look-to-indiana-for-new-stadium-a-stunning-rebuke-of-pritzkers-business-friendly-illinois.html | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
