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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,604.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/12/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 01/14/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 31
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 17
709 C BARCLAYS 30
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 2 2
905 C ADM 20 2
TOTAL: 52 52
MONTH TO DATE: 6,735
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 17/92
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JANUARY/2026: 52 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 5200 OZ or 0.1617 TONNES
total notices so far: 6735contracts for 673,500 OR 21.104 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 146 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.730 MILLION OZ OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7006CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 35.00 million oz
HUGE CHANGES:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 1.525 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 37.995 MILLION OZ//
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 45.415 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.525 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 37.995 MILLION OZ//
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1335TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1026 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 16.219TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 16.322//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 22.622 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 12.778 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.400TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 35.400TONNES OF GOLD
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 88,974TONNES
SPREADING OPERATION
NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 493 CONTRACTS OI TO 150,693 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 525 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 525 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIB OF 872 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 525 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1018 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $5.50 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.090MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $5.50
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENT
Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JAN 13/2025
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.53 PTS OR 0.64%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 239.99PTS OR 0.909%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1609.27PTS OR 3.10%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .30%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.9756
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.9694 Oil UP TO 60.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9856OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9695 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 25,585 CONTRACTS TO 525,246 OI WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $104.90 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3885). WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS WENT MASSIVELY HUGE TO THE LONG SIDE WITH OUR FRBNY PROVIDING STILL THE MASSIVE NECESSARY PAPER AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKERS CONTINUING ON THE LONG SIDE .
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW GAINING HUGELY FROM ITS LOW OI OF AROUND 418,000 TO NOW 525,246 AND NOW AMPLE ENOUGH FOR AN ATTEMPTED RAID BY OUR BANKERS. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND ONE TO 2 %
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 34,875 CONTRACTS (OR 108.475TONNES). THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS AND THEN WE HAVE TWO ISSUED IN JANUARY: 3.446 TONNES EARLY AND THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 12.778 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 39 TONNES OF SHORTAGE.
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS.. THE JANUARY ISSUANCE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR DAILY TOTALS!! (3.447 TONNES)
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JANUARY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 29,585 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT OF THE WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH JANUARY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A MONSTER T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS. THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 22,463 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK AND CONTINUING ON THIS WEEK. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FRBNY ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 9 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
THAT IS;
a) INITIAL STANDING 90.164 TONNES
b) INITIAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ OR 1.555 TONNES
c) ANOTHER 3 CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES OF 2150 CONTRACTS FOR 215000 OZ OR 6.687 TONNES
D) AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS, A 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 1000 CONTRACTS //100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES
E) AFTER A TWO WEEK HIATUS: ITS 6TH ISSUANCE FOR 1029 CONTRACTS/102,900 OZ OR 3.200 TONNES
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 6 OCCASIONS: 14.553 TONNES
TO WHICH WE ADD ALL OUR QUEUE JUMPING IN OCT: TOTAL MONTH;: 92.7648 TONNES
(ALL OF THESE QUEUE JUMPS ARE REPRESENTED BY CENTRAL BANKS DESPERATELY ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES)
EQUALS
197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD!!
END
8. NOVEMBER:TOTAL TONNES STANDING INCLUDING ALL QUEUE JUMPS AND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE:
INITIAL GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX IS 5032 CONTRACTS OR 503,200 OZ (15.651 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY ITS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES/ FOLLOWED BY ALL NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1016 CONTRACTS FOR 101600 OZ OR 3.165 TONNES TO OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 1.3966 TONNES/// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.5595 TONNES//NEW TOTAL GOLD STANDING IN NOVEMBER ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES
9. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1337 TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER NET QUEUE JUMPING OF 37.163 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.257 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 6.559 TONNES/NEW STANDING IS THUS: 121.977 TONNES.
10. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1026TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 16.219ONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPSl 16.322 //NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 22.622ONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 12.778 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.400 TONNES.
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 39+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE OCC ORDERED THE BANKS TO COVER THEIR GOLD LOSSES FROM OCC BETS. THIS IS SUCH A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT IS OWED!!! THE FRBNY BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS TO COVER THOSE HUGE LOSSES OF AROUND 39 TONNES OF GOLD.. THE FED IS VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES IF THEY DO NOT BORROW THIS GOLD. SO IT IS POSSIBLE/PROBABLE THAT THE FED IS THE BUYER OF 10.006 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY!! AND THEN ANOTHER 9.33 TONNES JAN 9.2026
THE MAJOR FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE SHORT EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY. IT SURE DOES LOOK LIKE THE BIS HAS NOW GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT AS THEIR OUTSTANDING LOAN OF 39+ TONNES REMAIN ON THE BOOKS OF THE BIS AND THE END OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING.
THE FRBNY IS STILL NON COMPLIANT WITH RESPECT TO BASEL III BUT IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THEM TO BE COMPLIANT ONLY COMMERCIAL BANKERS MUST BE.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST ( COMEX) IS NOW COMPLIANT EFFECTIVE JULY 1//2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/JAN//BORROWINGS FROM THE FRBNY:
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OF 10,760 CONTRACTS.
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 10,760 EFP CONTRACT WAS ISSUED: : /FEB 10,760 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,760 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS. THE REGULATORY BODY THAT IS SUPPOSE TO CONTROL THESE EFP’S IS THE O.C.C. HEADQUARTERED IN BOTH LONDON AND WASHINGTON. SEEMS NOW THAT THE OCC IS CLAMPING DOWN ON THIS EFP’S CIRCLING AROUND IN LONDON AS THEY ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO COVER MUCH OF THEIR DERIVATIVE BETS ON THESE CONTRACTS!! THUS THE FRBNY SAVED OUR BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION WITH THIS BORROWED GOLD FROM THE BIS OF 39 TONNES
WE HAD :
- ZERO LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS DURING THE COMEX SESSION + AND DID HAVE HUGE GOVERNMENT LIQUIDATION
- ZERO MONTH END SPREADERS LIQUIDATION!!. WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY..
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE//JANUARY
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WAS A HUGE SIZED 22,463 CONTRACTS
THE RAIDS WHETHER ON OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH OR T.A.S. DRIVEN, ACCOMPLISHES TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
THAT SET UP MONDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD WITH A CORRESPONDING VERY STRONG GAIN OF COMEX OI AND A HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
.
THE COMEX IS IN TOTAL TURMOIL ESPECIALLY THESE PAST 6 MONTHS WITH THE FOLLOWING;
- WITH JULY’S RARE TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK (LATE IN JULY)
- AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH AUGUST’S 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 44.696 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY SEPTEMBER’S 7 ISSUANCES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.923 TONNES.
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY OCTOBER’S 6 ISSUANCES FOR 14.553 TONNES
- TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER’S TWO ISSUANCES FOR 4.5575 TONNES
- THE LONDON BANKING AUDITORS HAVE SO FAR REFUSED TO GIVE CERTIFICATION ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S SISTER HOLDING OPERATION, THE E.E.A. ON ITS GOLD AND OTHER ASSETS HELD UNDER THE E.E.A.(SEE ROBERT LAMBOURNE’S LETTER OCT 8/
- FRBNY BORROWS ANOTHER 24 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE BIS IN OCT TO SAVE THE BULLION BANKS FROM EXTINCTION AFTER THE O.C.C ORDERED THE BULLION BANKS TO BE ONSIDE WITH THEIR DERIVATIVES. THE FRBNY IS NOW SHORT 54+ TONNES OF GOLD.
- MASSIVE REMOVAL OF COMEX CONTRACTS FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI//RECORD 33,000 CONTRACTS REMOVED FRIDAY NOV 21//
- MASSIVE T.A.S. CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS/SIGNALLING A MASSIVE RAID TO BE!
- MASSIVE RAIDS AT THE COMEX CALLED UPON EVERY OTHER DAY LAST WEEK
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: FINAL STANDING 90.235 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES QUEUE JUMPING AND 9.591 TONNES EX FOR RISK.
JUNE: FINAL STANDING 62.534 TONNES PLUS 0.1493TONNES OF QUEUE JUMP EQUALS 93.085 TONNES
JULY: 17.947 TONNES INITIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR + 2.195 EX FOR RISK TODAY = = 41.106 TONNES
AUGUST:INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 60.547 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 7 MONTHLY ISSUANCES OF: EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALLING 44.696 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES AS FOLLOWS:
107.5117 TONNES NORMAL DELIVERIES (INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPS /EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) +
5.4432 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR/AUGUST 7
2.413 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AUGUST 11
PLUS 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 12
PLUS: 9.107 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 25
PLUS 9.1010 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 26!!
PLUS 9.0699 TONNES EX FOR RISK AUGUST 27
PLUS 6.923 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/AUGUST 28
MONTHLY TOTAL 44.696 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!MONTH OF AUGUST.
EQUALS
152.208 TONNES TONNES OF GOLD.
SEPT:
SEPT: 25.878 TONNES OF GOLD INITIAL GOLD STANDING TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 22.923 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED 7 TIMES DURING THE MONTH:
TOTAL EX FOR RISK// FOR MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING SEPT ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES
THIS IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY WEAK SEPTEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.
OCTOBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING: 90.164 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 76.1656 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR 6 ISSUANCES OF 14.553 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL NEW STANDING FOR GOLD IN THIS ACTIVE OCTOBER DELIVERY MONTH ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNNES.
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1026 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 16.219TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS OF 16.322//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 22.622 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 12.778 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.400TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JANUARY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $104.90)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ////.. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX// WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY IN AN OFF MONTH. THE COMEX IS ONE BIG MESS!!
MONNDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 4 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO JANUARY:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. NOW JANUARY:
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1026 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 16.219TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE: 16.322 TONNES //NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 22.622 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 12.778 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.400TONNES.
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $104.90
WE HAD A HUGE 5290 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE .
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
JAN 13
JAN 2026 CONTRACT MONTH
GOLD
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES I) Out of Brinks: 16,075.500 oz (500 kilobars) total withdrawal 16,075.500 oz |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0- ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 52 notice(s) 5200 OZ 0.1617 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 538contracts 538,00 OZ 1.673 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 6735notices 673,500oz 21.104TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRIES
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
total deposit: NILoz
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
ENTRIES
I) Out of Brinks: 16,075.500 oz
(500 kilobars)
total withdrawal 16,075.500 oz
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs 1//CUSTOMER TO DEALER JPM
i) 32,118.849 OZ (1000 KILOBARS)
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER
THE FRONT MONTH OF JANUARY STANDS AT 590 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 59 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 92 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 33 CONTRACTS OR 3300 OZ OF A QUEUE JUMP (.1026 TONNES)
FEB GAINED 6437 CONTRACTS UP TO 299,332CONTRACTS AS FEB BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH!!!
MARCH GAINED 123 CONTRACTS UP TO 2791
We had 52 contracts filed for today representing 5200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 9 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 52 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 12 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JAN /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6735) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN ( 590CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (52 x 100 oz per contract) equals 724,000 OR 22.519Tonnes of gold to which we add our two exchange for risk in January of 12.778 tonnes//new standing advances to 35.297onnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month: No of notices filed so far (6735 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JAN (590 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (52x 100 oz) which equals 727,300 OR 22.622 TONNES plus our two exchange for risk of 12.778 tonnes//new standing advances to 35.400 tonnes
new total of gold standing in JANUARY is 35.400 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY ..: 35.400 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.
volume MONDAY confirmed 383,200 EXCELLENT
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,954,980,629oz 60.08 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 36,295,842.478 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 19,282,815.211 or 599.776 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 17,013,027.197OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 17,327,835 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
538.96 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 13 2026
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Out of Brinks 600,691,340 oz ii) Out of CNT: 206,206,970 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan 1,302,807,300 oz total withdrawal: 2,109,705.610 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into CNT 598,431.350 oz total deposit 598,431.35 o |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Asahi: 295,836,100oz total deposit 295,836.100 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 146 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.730million OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 593ontracts (2.965MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7006contracts 35.030MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 ENTRY
i) Into Asahi: 295,836,100oz
total deposit 295,836.100 oz
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DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi 590,648,600 oz
ii) Into HSBC 180,199.601 oz
total: 770,848,604 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries
i) Out of Brinks 600,691,340 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 206,206,970 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan 1,302,807,300 oz
total withdrawal: 2,109,705.610 oz
adjustments: / /
2
i) Out of Brinks//customer to dealer Brinks 68,692,32 oz
ii) Out of CNT: dealer to customer account of CNT: 575,950.153 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 122.991MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 435.671Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JANUARY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JANUARY /2026 OI: 739 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 135 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 170 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 305 CONTRACTS OR A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1.525MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
FEB GAINED 50 CONTRACTS UP TO 3872CONTRACTS AS FEB BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH FOR FEBRUARY,
MARCH LOST 726 CONTRACTS DOWNTO 100,764
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 146 or 0.730 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 172,246 huge//
AND NOW JANUARY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7006 X5,000 oz = 35.030MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JANUARY (739) AND the number of notices served upon today (146)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JANUARY 2026 contract month: (7006)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN(739) minus number of notices served upon today (146x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JANUARY.contract month equating to 37.995MILLION OZ
NORMAL STANDING: 37.995MILLION OZ WHICH IS HUGE FOR A GENERALLY SMALL DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY.
New total standing: 37.995 million oz. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW UNDER MASSIVE SIEGE!! AND THIS IS HAPPENING WITH THE MASSIVE SIEGE ON GOLD AS WELL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 122.991 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 181.678/435.671million. 41.60%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS
JAN 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN$11.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1074.737TONNES
JAN 12/2026/WITH GOLD UP $104.90 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070,80TONNES
JAN 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.55 TONNES
JAN 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.13 TONNES
JAN 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $47.00 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 5/2026/WITH GOLD UP $122.80 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.13 TONNES
JAN 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.10 TODAY/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.56 TONNES
DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $41.50 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,99 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $190.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071,13 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $39.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.27 TONNES
DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $52.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 12.12 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.66 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $80,25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
DEC 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.54 TONNES
DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $39.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.69 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.69 TONNES
DEC 15/WITH GOLD UP $10.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 105.12 TONNES
DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.83 TONNES
DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $85.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.82 TONNES
DEC 10/WITH GOLD UP $85.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.82 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $18.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.11 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.33 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.25 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 4.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.58 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $9.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.58 TONNES
DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.30 TONNES
DEC 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.58 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.01TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $22.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $51.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.43 TONNES
NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $25.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 25/WITH GOLD UP $46.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.57 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.86 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $18.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.43 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1074.23 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JAN 13 WITH SILVER UP $1.70 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.816MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524,737MILLION OZ //
JAN 12 WITH SILVER UP $5.50 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.229MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525,598MILLION OZ //
JAN 9 WITH SILVER UP $4.15 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.119 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.329MILLION OZ //
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.40/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.210MILLION OZ //
JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.78/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 10.481 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV OZ FROM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.730 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP $4.93 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP $5.90 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 363,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. /. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.691 MILLION OZ //
JAN 2/WITH SILVER UP $0.22 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.363 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $6.41 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.806 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.054 MILLION OZ //
DEC 30/WITH SILVER UP $6.89 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.72 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 524.248 MILLION OZ //
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN $5.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.814 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 526,968 MILLION OZ //
DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP $4.88 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.782 MILLION OZ //
DEC 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.95 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.083 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.595MILLION OZ //
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP $2.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 17.13 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.678 MILLION OZ //
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.541 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.541 MILLION OZ //
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP $2.06 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP $2.93/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.36 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.000 MILLION OZ //
DEC 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $.07/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.36 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 56.360 MILLION OZ //
DEC 15/WITH SILVER UP $1.62/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 635,000 INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.720 MILLION OZ //
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.30/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.085 MILLION OZ //
DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP $3.52/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.537 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.085 MILLION OZ //
DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP $2.41/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.179 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.828 MILLION OZ //
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.497 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.007 MILLION OZ //
DEC 5/WITH SILVER UP 0.39/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.448 MILLION OZ //
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.12/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4383 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.365 MILLION OZ //
DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP $0.23/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.012 MILLION OZ //
DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE AND FRAUDLUENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.167 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.057 MILLION OZ //
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.21 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 907,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 501.890 MILLION OZ //
NOV28/WITH SILVER UP $3.28 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV26/WITH SILVER UP $1.86 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 2.267 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.983 MILLION OZ //
NOV25/WITH SILVER UP $0.69 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 8.163 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.716 MILLION OZ //THIS IS A FRAUDULENT TRANSACTION
NOV24/WITH SILVER UP $0.43 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 277,000, OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.553 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV21/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.190 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
NOV20/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.53 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.555 MILLION OZ MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 524.737MILLION OZ OF SILVER…
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
SILVER
1/PETER SCHIFF
JOHN RUBINO
jAMES RICKARDS
2. MATHEW PIEPENBURG/VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT KINESIS / AND TODAY;S 254
5. COMMODITY REPORT//:
5B. COMMODITY REPORT//SILVER/SILVER LEASE RATES:/SILVER
Shanghai silver inventories
Harvey and Chris,
The Shanghai Gold Exchange weekly silver inventory report was published today. It covers the period from 30 December to 7 January and there was a 215t reduction of inventory to 726t. This is apparently the lowest since July 2016, so nearly a decade.
Lease rates for silver in Shanghai remain over 20% and there is no sign of lease rates reducing in London from c7%/8%. On the face of it, they are unlikely to fall on this news.
Bob
END
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
Margins on precious metals trades – CME
Inbox
| Robert Lambourne |  11:15 AM (4 minutes ago) | |
| Not sure if this is widely known, but this is a margin change on the 4 precious metals effective from tonight. Sent from my iPad | ||
| Chris Powell | 11:18 AM (1 minute ago) | ||
| to me, Robert | |||
Just dispatched the Bloomberg story on this.
CME shifts precious-metals margin system to percentage basis as prices swing
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-01-13 11:16 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 12, 2026
CME Group will change the way it sets margins for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures after a surge in prices and volatile trading.
The new approach will set margins based on a percentage of so-called notional, the CME said in a notice. Previously, they were based on a dollar amount.
The shift takes effect from today’s close and follows a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage,” the CME said.
Precious metals have been the subject of an extraordinary rally over recent quarters, with the gains and price swings continuing into the new year. In the latest leg higher, gold and silver both surged to records in Monday’s session, with the latter having already advanced by about a fifth in 2026.
In the near term, the margin changes “may temporarily weigh on precious metals,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
“The percentage-based method intuitively would be able to capture the margin required, which means no need for frequent adjustment,” Wong added. However, if volatility went beyond historical levels, or there are unforeseen circumstances, “they may still increase the percentage,” he said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
ROBERT LAMBOURNEl
| Robert Lambourne | 1:22 PM (4 hours ago) | ||
| to Chris, me | |||
It seems really bullish for silver if they are doing this even before the end of the passive funds indexing reset. They know more than ordinary traders.
I checked up earlier on export licenses for silver from Shanghai. Here is the comment:-
Evidence so far (through 13 Jan 2026)
• Documentary lag, not outright denial of application
◦ Every silver shipment now needs a separate export licence; the 45-day review window is often extended, so exporters cannot promise a firm loading date to London or New York counterparties.
So it looks like metal arrival in the West is going to be slower and more irregular.
END
Graham should also include derivatives in his equation for systemic risk!!
Is Silver About to Break Our Debt-Based Financial System?
by Phoenix Capital Research
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 8:00
Silver is becoming a systemic risk.
For years, rumors have swirled that the CME and other futures exchanges were permitting too many silver contracts. Remember, a silver futures contract is supposed to be backed up by actual physical silver, meaning the investor has the option to “take delivery” of actual silver bullion if he or she chooses.
As Bill King notes according to the CME’s registry there are 440 million ounces of silver located in its depositories. As I write this, silver open interest on the CME is 150,200 contracts. Each contract is worth 5,000 ounces of silver.
This means there is 751 MILLION ounces of silver contracts trading for the March 2026 contract… or 1.7 TIMES the amount of actual silver the CME has stored in various depositories.
This current silver contract expires on March 27th 2026. And the last delivery day is March 31st. If a significant portion of the current open positions opt for physical delivery, there is a chance the CME would face a potentially systemic issue.
Specifically, the silver ISN’T there.
This helps explain why the precious metal is going parabolic.
How ironic would it be that precious metals end up being the proverbial “straw that breaks the camel’s back” for our current debt-based fiat financial system? And what happens to silver and other precious metals prices when investors realize there isn’t enough actual bullion backstopping the trades being made on the major exchanges?
Silver at $100 per ounce? $200 per ounce?
We have a small window of time to prepare for what’s coming. And those investors who are correctly positioned for this could potentially generate life-changing returns.
On that note, our Special Investment Report titled Survive the Inflationary Storm details FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make extraordinary gains. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that rose 75%, 140%, 150%, 180%, 280% and an incredible 574% in 2025! And I wouldn’t be surprised to see them REPEAT this performance in 2026.
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we in light of what is unfolding today, we making just 100 copies available to the public.
To grab one of the last remaining copies…
Best Regards
Graham Summers
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JAN 13/2025
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.53 PTS OR 0.64%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 239.99PTS OR 0.909%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1609.27PTS OR 3.10%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .30%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.9756
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.9694 Oil UP TO 60.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 65.08 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9856OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9695 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.9756
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9694
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 239.99PTS OR 0.90%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1609.27 PTS OR 3.10%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 60.68
BRENT; 65.03
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.69 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1652 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +2.166/ UP 8 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.91… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.566 UP 8 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR DOWN this morning
60.68 VS 65.03
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.8174 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.445 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.247
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.367
3j Gold at $4612.50 Silver at: 87.84 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 42/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.75
3m oil (WTI) into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.91 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.166% UP 8 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.566 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7980 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9311 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.159 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.847 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.566 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.15UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3870B UP 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.131UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.402 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.935 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York OPENING REPORT
US Equity Futures Jump To Record High After Core CPI Comes In Cool
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 08:40 AM
US equity futures were initially weaker as the market weighs geopolitics, inflation data, and the start to earnings season, where JPM reported results that were mixed at best (unexpected weakness in bank underwriting kept the stock flat in premarket trading). However, just after core CPI printed below estimates, futures spiked as high as 7030, rising to a new record high, up 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures also rising 0.2%, with Mag7 names mixed premarket with AMD/INTC leading Semis. Fins/Energy are leading Cyclicals which are roughly flat vs. Defensives, where Utils are the standout group.Sentiment was impaired after Trump said that any country doing business with Iran will receive a 25% tariff; the potential for conflict is pushing oil prices higher with WTI back above $60 for first time since Nov. Japanese stocks jumped while the yen slumped on speculation that PM Sanae Takaichi may call a snap election, reigniting the so-called Takaichi trade.Bond yields are +1-2bp across the curve and USD is rallying driven by a surge in the USDJPY which jumped as high as 159, the highest since July 2024. CPI print this afternoon with the scenario analysis is below. The ADP weekly print, NFIB Small Biz Survey, and New Home Sales the other macro data today.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Alphabet +0.7%, Nvidia +0.02%, Tesla +0.1%, Meta little changed, Amazon -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%, Apple -0.4%)
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) falls 5% after the carrier gave an underwhelming profit forecast for the full year.
- L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX) gains 13% as the US Department of Defense is set to invest in the company’s Missile Solutions business via a $1 billion convertible preferred security, tightening the direct links between the US government and a major defense contractor.
- Ormat Technologies (ORA) rises 5% after the renewable energy company signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with data center operator Switch for energy from its Salt Wells geothermal power plant in Nevada.
- Synopsys (SNPS) falls 2% as Piper Sandler downgrades the chip design software firm to neutral from overweight, saying the company could see prolonged headwinds to growth.
- Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) slumps 28% after the biotech firm said it received a request from the FDA to clarify the clinical benefit of its therapy that treats a rare kidney disease, a move that analysts said could delay the approval by the agency.
In corporate news, Amgen said its experimental drug MariTide helped patients maintain weight loss for two years. Diageo is said to be considering options for its Chinese assets, including possible divestments. Wall Street firms continue to reduce headcount, with Citi set to cut about 1,000 jobs this week and BlackRock said to be trimming about 1% of staff.
After initially trading lower, spooked by Trump’s threat to tariff countries doing business with Iran which has the potential to disrupt US trading relationships across the globe, futures jumped after core CPI came in below estimates.
Speaking of CPI, JPMorgan’s trading desk predicted a rally of up to 1.75% for the S&P 500 if CPI is in line with, or cooler, than estimated – which is now the case; let’s see if stocks surge as much as JPM predicted.
Fed’s Williams said interest rates are “well positioned” to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation back to the 2% goal.
With earnings season kicking off, Bloomberg notes how small caps have been in favor recently, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500 for the past seven sessions. The last time it had a longer winning streak was 2019. Yet tech remains the dominant contributor to 4Q profit growth among S&P 500 members, estimated to show year-over-year EPS growth of 20%, while non-tech earnings expansion is slated to decelerate from 9% to just 1%, according to data from Bank of America.
Meanwhile, the Fed drama continues, with global central bankers pledging “full solidarity” with Powell and saying that the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of financial and economic stability. Today’s Big Take looks at the Washington backlash that could derail Trump’s campaign to tighten White House control over the Fed.
In other assets, the dollar has clawed back some ground after Monday’s drop, but downside risks remain. Oil is higher while gold slipped from its record. CME said it will change the way it sets margins for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures after a surge in prices and volatile trading.
European stocks dip, reversing an earlier rise which pushed them near record highs as investors look ahead to US inflation data. Energy stocks outperform while the construction and materials sector lags. Stoxx 600 is little changed at 610.90 with 336 members down, 250 up, and 14 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Symrise shares rally as much as 7.3% after the company announced a €400 million ($467 million) share buyback and said it’s in advanced talks to sell its terpene business, a kind of chemical used in fragrances and flavors.
- Orsted shares surge as much as 6.6% after a US judge ruled work can resume on a wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island while it challenges the government’s latest attempt to stop offshore projects from being built.
- Whitbread shares jump as much as 6.9%, the most since May, after the Premier Inn owner reported solid trading and increased cost efficiencies in its third-quarter update.
- Synektik shares gain as much as 4.6% after the Polish distributor of medical devices including surgery robots reported new orders rising 30% last quarter as well as new contract with Czech hospital.
- THG shares jump as much as 9.7%, the most since October, as analysts highlighted strong momentum in the company’s beauty and nutrition businesses.
- Gamma Communications shares jump as much as 9.3%, the most since September, after reporting FY25 trading is in line with consensus expectations.
- Persimmon shares rise as much as 2.8% to the highest level since November 2024 as the homebuilder reassures that full-year 2025 results are likely to be at the upper end of market expectations and it is on track to meet this year’s forecasts.
- Raspberry PI shares slump as much as 10% to a record low after the computing company’s strong results were overshadowed by its warning over the rapid increase in the cost of DRAM memory chips, as more supplies are funneled into AI data centers.
- Games Workshop shares drop as much as 3.7%, the most since November, after the Warhammer owner reported first-half results that showed sales growth declining toward the end of the period in some stores.
- Vinci shares fall as much as 3.7% as French infrastructure stocks drop on ratings downgrades by Bank of America, concerned by the risk of rising French taxes.
- Thales shares fall as much as 2.4% as Deutsche Bank downgrades several defense names, citing uncertainties surrounding the French defense budget and lagging cyber sales.
Asian stocks briefly jumped to a fresh record, driven by gains in Japanese shares as traders returned from holiday amid growing speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap election. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, the most in a week, with Alibaba, TSMC and Toyota Motor among the biggest boosts to the gauge. Most subsectors were in the green, with financials being a major contributor. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia also rose. Concerns around Federal Reserve’s independence after the Trump administration escalated its attack on the central bank again prompted flows away from US market into regions like Asia. Traders are also brushing off the latest tariff threats from President Donald Trump, who said to impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran.
“The market does not care about Trump’s capricious tariff threats,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “Trump’s previous backdown from China has shown that bigger levers such as the supply of rare earths matter more in tariff negotiations. It is unlikely that he can afford to upset the trade truce with China just to pressure Iran.”
In FX, the yen sinks, following a jolt in Japanese bond and stock markets, on speculation that an early election is on the cards. Dollar-yen briefly hits 159, highest since July 2024. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges marginally higher.
In rates, treasuries, European and UK bond yields rise by two or three basis points, with US CPI data ahead.
In commodities, oil prices rally on geopolitical risk and Trump’s threat of tariffs on Iranian crude buyers, with Brent hitting the highest since November and briefly moving above $65/barrel before paring. Gold edging lower from another record high, down about $12 to $4,585/oz.
Today’s US economic calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), December CPI (8:30am), October new home sales (10am) and December Federal budget balance (2pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Musalem (10am) and Barkin (4pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
- DAX -0.2%
- CAC 40 -0.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.19%
- VIX +0.3 points at 15.43
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1210.29
- euro little changed at $1.1669
- WTI crude +1.8% at $60.57/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Donald Trump vowed to impose a 25% tariff on goods from any country “doing business with” Iran, a move that risks derailing his trade truce with China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil. Germany’s Friedrich Merz said the world is seeing the “final days” of Iran’s regime. BBG
- The criminal probe into Jay Powel by US prosecutors has galvanized the Federal Reserve’s top leaders to resist Trump’s attacks and could push he chair to remain a governor until 2028. Trump’s DoJ probe was seen by people close to the US central bank as a sign that the president would go to extraordinary lengths to force policymakers to bow to his demands. FT
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he was working behind the scenes to block a proposed tax on billionaires’ wealth and was committed to defeating the measure if it reached the ballot. NYT
- President Trump reportedly unhappy about AG Pam Bondi’s performance and has repeatedly complained to aides: WSJ
- Microsoft has warned that US AI groups are being outpaced by Chinese rivals in the battle for users outside the west, as China combines low-cost “open” models with hefty state subsidies to gain an edge. FT
- Iranian protests appeared to persist in localized pockets overnight as activist group Iran Human Rights warned of imminent executions by the state and said the civilian death toll may be in the thousands. BBG
- The BOJ may raise rates as early as April as heightened market concerns over PM Takaichi’s approach to fiscal policy keep the yen weak, former board member Makoto Sakurai said. “The BOJ must raise rates at least by June or July,” he added. BBG
- Japanese investors dumped UK government bonds at the fastest pace in 14 years in November, citing worries over Britain’s fiscal outlook and more attractive yields at home. BBG
- Japanese stocks surged to an all time high and the yen tumbled to a 19 month low as markets bet that a possible snap election net month would reignite the “Takaichi trade.” FT
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s Commerce Ministry outlines the final ruling on the imports of solar polysilicon from the US and South Korea, effective 14th January with tariffs of up to 113.8%. To continue to collect anti-dumping tariffs for another five years.
- China said it opposes unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction”, following the 25% tariff on US trade for countries doing business with Iran.
- Taiwan officials said ‘some’ consensus has been reached with the US on a trade deal.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said there were some detailed proposals on rare earth supply chains during the meeting with the US. A potential price floor on rare earths were discussed.
- US President Trump said any countries doing business with Iran are to pay a 25% tariff on any or all business being done with the US.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks followed on from Monday’s gains, with equities mostly in the green. ASX 200 started the session on the front foot, +0.4%, before extending gains and currently trading just shy of session highs at 8835. With spot XAU trading near ATHs, this has aided sectors such as metals and mining (2.0%) to continue Monday’s gains. Nikkei 225 returned from its long weekend with a gap higher, resulting in the index opening with gains as much as 3.7% and forming new ATHs. This comes amid a weaker JPY and growing speculation of PM Takaichi dissolving parliament. Japanese media noted that the LDP was looking to capitalise on Takaichi’s high approval ratings. KOSPI opened Tuesday’s trade at ATHs and oscillated at highs before peaking at 4681 and slightly paring back, but remains comfortably in the green. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. opened in line with the broader sentiment, with the former surging higher, aided by gains in Gigadevice (3986 HK). The latter is the laggard across Asia-Pacific equities, trading with slight gains of 0.2%.
Top Asian News
- China examines foreign ETF trades after Jane Street India probe, Bloomberg reported.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she shared concerns with US Treasury Secretary Bessent over weak JPY.
European equities (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have traded tentatively throughout the morning, as markets await CPI. T he AEX (+0.4%) is the key outperformer in the region amid gains in ASML (+1.2%) after Jefferies raised the Co.’s price target, thereby lifting the index. European sectors are trading mixed, with Energy (+0.9%), Technology (+0.6%) and Banks (+0.6%) leading. The former has gained amid stronger crude prices given the heightened geopolitical tension between US and Iran, whilst ASML helps boost Tech. On the downside, Autos (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.7%) and Construction & Materials (-2.6%) lag. The latter faced steep losses due to Sika (-7.0%) after the Co.’s FY25 sales fell by 4.8%, with the Chinese market a continued weakness for them.
Top European News
- French Budget Balance (Nov) -155.4B vs. Exp. -165.0B (Prev. -136.2B, Rev. -136.2B).
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Dec) 1.0% (Prev. 1.2%).
Central Banks
- Fed’s Williams (Voter, Neutral) said monetary policy well positioned amid a favourable outlook and that policy is now closer to neutral, well-positioned ahead of January rate decision; expect that we’ll see [the labor market] stabilize this year”. MONETARY POLICY. “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments… the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”. “Monetary policy is now well positioned to support the stabilization of the labor market and the return of inflation to the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.”. “The actions taken by the FOMC… have moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.”. INFLATION. “Underlying inflation trends have been pretty favorable.”. “Tariffs have been overwhelmingly borne by domestic businesses and consumers.”. “I expect inflation will be just under 2-1/2 percent for this year as a whole, before reaching… 2 percent in 2027.”. “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year.”. “Inflation appears likely to peak sometime in the first half of this year as the full effects of tariffs are felt.”. “Medium- and longer-term expectations remain well within their pre-Covid ranges.”. “Inflation expectations remain well anchored.”. GROWTH. “The economic outlook is favorable.”. “I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.”. “GDP growth looks to have been somewhat above 2 percent last year, and it will likely pick up some this year.”. LABOR MARKET. “This has been a gradual process, without signs of a sharp rise in layoffs.”. “Downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market cooled.”. “The unemployment rate moved up… and ended the year at 4.4 percent.”. “I expect that we’ll see [the labor market] stabilize this year and then strengthen somewhat thereafter.”
- Fed’s Williams (Voter, Neutral) said the Fed is not under strong influence to change rates. Expects the next Fed chair to understand the gravity of the role. Strong productivity growth echoes past booms. Adds that the best way to instill confidence in the Fed is to do the job well. He expects improved labour market demand. Confident the Fed will return inflation to 2%. Jobs market is unusual with low hiring, low firing.
- Japan’s government is reportedly likely to delay the nomination of a BoJ board member if PM Takaichi called an election, via Reuters citing sources.
- Global central banks are reportedly drafting a statement in support for Fed Chair Powell.
FX
- DXY is flat and trades within a narrow 98.89 to 99.03 range; the high for the day is a couple of pips short of its 50 DMA, while a bout of pressure in the index could see a test of its 200 DMA at 98.80. Focus for the index today will be on US CPI; in brief, the consensus looks for headline CPI to rise by 0.3% M/M in December (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to remain unchanged at 2.7% Y/Y. GS expect the figures to exceed consensus, citing firmer food and energy prices.
- Away from the US, G10s are mixed with mild strength in the GBP whilst the JPY is the clear underperformer – other peers are near-enough flat vs the USD. Nothing really driving the strength in the GBP this morning, whilst the JPY has a lot to digest.
- A full JPY analysis piece can be found on the Newsquawk headline feed at 08:55 GMT, but in brief, USD/JPY eclipsed 159.00 for the first time since 11 July 2024. As a reminder, Japan intervened twice on July 11 and 12 to bring the USD/JPY below the 160.00 mark. The latest depreciation in the JPY has been spurred by continued reports of PM Takaichi’s plans to call an election, where her aim is to secure a single-party government. This would, in theory, allow her to enact more expansionary fiscal policy.
Fixed Income
- JGBs led the downside overnight as the “Takaichi trade” resumed. For more details, see the 08:55GMT Market Update.
- Amidst this, USTs and Bunds also found themselves lower. USTs by just a handful of ticks and holding above the 112-00 mark and by extension yesterday’s trough, which was half a tick below that. Focus turns to US CPI later, where consensus looks for the headline M/M, and Y/Y prints to remain at 0.3% and 2.7% while both core figures are seen higher by a tenth at 0.3% and 2.7% respectively. Goldman Sachs looks for a hotter print driven by technical factors.
- Bunds in-fitting with the above, at a 127.84 low with downside of 28 ticks at most. Bunds made fresh lows following a soft Bobl outing, which had a weak b/c and lower than exp. amount sold. More generally, action for today will likely be dictated by US CPI. If the bearish bias extends, we look to support at 127.89, 127.82 and 127.70 from the last three sessions.
- Gilts gapped lower by 14 ticks at the open, acknowledging the bearish bias from APAC trade, before dipping further to a 92.30 base. Since, the benchmark has recovered to opening levels. No reaction to the passing of I/L supply while the interview with BoE’s Bailey took place this morning, but the text won’t be published until January 16th.
- Greece begins the sale of a new 10yr bond; guidance seen at +60-65bps to mid swaps.
- Italy sells EUR 4bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4bln 2.40% 2029 BTP: avg. yield 2.48%, b/c 1.45x
- Germany sells EUR 4.597bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: Avg yield: 2.47%, b/c 1.41x, retention 23.38%
Commodities
- Crude firmer with geopolitics in focus. Overnight action was somewhat rangebound, as there was no significant escalation or development. However, we did get reports via CBS that President Trump was briefed on military and covert operations against Iran, but no decision has been made.
- Since, as participants digest this risk and reports via BBG that two tankers were attacked in proximity to the Black Sea loading terminal for the CPC, crude has climbed and posts upside in excess of USD 1.00/bbl. At highs of USD 60.82/bbl and USD 65.20/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
- Spot gold is a little lower this morning, taking a breather following the strength seen in the prior session, where the yellow metal made fresh ATHs beyond the USD 4.6k/oz mark. Slight pressure today without a clear driver; potentially profit-taking ahead of US CPI. Price action in Europe has been sideways, and within a USD 4,573.87-4,608.13/oz range.
- A bit of divergence between gold and silver this morning, with the latter posting modest gains and currently holding at the upper end of the day’s range, last at USD 85.76/oz.
- Base metals are mixed after choppy trade overnight. 3M LME Copper currently trades within a USD 13,034-13,232/t range. Desks have highlighted that there have been growing fears amongst traders that copper may sharply pull back if demand for the metal slows in 2026, particularly if China curbs spending.
- Citi said its 3-month price target for gold and silver is now USD 5000/oz and USD 100/oz respectively.
- Two oil tankers were attacked in proximity to the Black Sea loading terminal for the CPC, Bloomberg reports citing sources.-Two additional oil tankers have been hit near the Black Sea CPC terminal by drones, according to sources; taking the total on Tuesday to four tankers.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- A push by French President Macron and Italian PM Meloni to begin discussions with the Russian Kremlin is gaining traction in EU capitals and in Brussels itself, Politico reported citing sources. Primary goal to ensure EU red lines are not crossed. and to signal to the US that the EU has leverage. Elsewhere, creation of the role of EU special envoy to Ukraine hs support of the Council and leaders. Mario Draghi and Alexander Stubb have been touted. However, EU diplomat Kallas opposes the role.
- Kyiv Mayor said the Russians are attacking the capital with ballistic missiles and that explosions are being heard.
Geopolitics Middle East
- US President Trump is leaning towards striking Iran to punish the regime for killing protesters, but hasn’t made a final decision and is exploring Iranian proposals for negotiations, a White House official with direct knowledge told Axios.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said Tehran is ready for any action by the US, including military action.
- China said it opposes unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction”, following the 25% tariff on US trade for countries doing business with Iran.
- US President Trump has been briefed on a range of military and covert options against Iran, according to CBS News; however no final decision has been made and diplomatic channels remain open.
- “EU intends to impose new sanctions on Iran”, Sky News Arabia reported.
- “Washington called on Dual U.S.-Iranian Citizens to Leave Iran”, Al Arabiya reported.
- US President Trump said any countries doing business with Iran are to pay a 25% tariff on any or all business being done with the US.
- US President Trump is leaning towards striking Iran to punish the regime for killing protesters, but hasn’t made a final decision and is exploring Iranian proposals for negotiations, a White House official with direct knowledge told Axios.
- Iranian authorities claim that the situation is ‘under control’.
- “EU intends to impose new sanctions on Iran”, Sky News Arabia reported.
- US President Trump has been briefed on a range of military and covert options against Iran, according to CBS News; however no final decision has been made and diplomatic channels remain open.
- “Washington called on Dual U.S.-Iranian Citizens to Leave Iran”, Al Arabiya reported.
- At least two unsanctioned supertankers are departing Venezuelan waters carrying crude oil, according to reported citing TankerTrackers.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted that he was pleased to hear a strong, shared desire to quickly address key vulnerabilities in critical minerals supply chains; “I am optimistic that nations will pursue prudent derisking over decoupling”.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Dec CPI MoM, est. 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Dec Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Dec CPI YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
- 8:30 am: Dec Core CPI YoY, est. 2.71%, prior 2.6%
- 8:30 am: Dec CPI Index NSA, est. 324.17, prior 324.12
- 8:30 am: Dec Core CPI Index SA, est. 332.06, prior 331.07
- 10:00 am: Oct New Home Sales, est. 715k
- 10:00 am: Oct New Home Sales MoM, est. -10.63%
- 2:00 pm: Dec Federal Budget Balance, est. -152.5b, prior -173.3b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from Helsinki where it’s a reasonably mild -8 degrees. I’ve spent 2026 so far chasing the cold with -15 in Alps at the start of the year, a rare -7 degrees in Surrey last week and now 4 Nordic cities in 2 days. Most of the time I’ve been trying not to fall over to break the screws in my back or to further damage knees that will soon need replacing. If I were a racehorse, I suspect a few emotional goodbyes would be coming soon.
There have been lots of icy patches to avoid in markets over the last 24 hours as 2026 continues to be the year of the headline even if most markets have enjoyed the ride so far. The main story this week, and there is competition, are the continued developments and market reaction around the Federal Reserve, after US prosecutors launched a criminal investigation that’s revived fears around central bank independence. That helped push gold (+1.95%) and silver (+6.57%) to new records yesterday, and the move out of US assets also meant the dollar and US Treasuries lost ground as well. Ironically, if the ultimate aim is to reduce yields, it could have the opposite impact as the Fed may be keen not to be seen as reacting to political pressure at the front end, and the long-end may show some concern about the motives. In addition, if Powell was looking for a reason to stay on as a Governor after his term as Chair ends in May, this could be one. It’s very unusual to stay on but Eccles did so in 1948 for 3.5 years to help protect and secure Fed independence after the Treasury were trying to fund large post war time debts. So there might be some parallels in 2026. Ironically one of the buildings being renovated, that is causing the DoJ investigation, is the Marrine S. Eccles Building. You can also see our US economists quick take on the developments here.
Meanwhile, investors have also faced an array of geopolitical headlines from Venezuela to Iran, which has pushed Brent crude (+0.84%) to a 7-week high of $63.87/bbl. Remember Rubio is meeting Danish and Greenland officials some time this week as well. We could also hear on IEEPA tariffs tomorrow at the next “opinions day”. And there’s no immediate sign of any letup on the calendar either, as today will bring the US CPI print as well as the start of US Q4 earnings season. Yet despite all the noise, risk assets have been remarkably unfazed by everything, with the S&P 500 (+0.16%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.21%) both at new records.
The prospect of Fed independence being eroded immediately induced a negative reaction for US assets, reminiscent of previous episodes where it looked like Powell might be removed. But even as the reaction followed a clear pattern, it was still fairly subdued relative to previous episodes last year, and the initial losses were pared back significantly. So while the Treasury yield curve saw a bear steepening with 10yr yields trading +4bps higher just before the US open, by the close the 2yr yield (+0.2bps) was virtually unchanged at 3.53%, while 10yr (+1.1bps to 4.18%) and the 30yr (+1.5bps to 4.83%) saw modest increases. Despite higher yields, the US Dollar lost ground, weakening -0.27% against the Euro. The reversal of the initial move was particularly clear for equities, as S&P 500 futures were initially down -0.79% shortly after the European open, before the index rose +0.16% to a new record.
A few arguments were put forward as to why there wasn’t a bigger reaction, but an important one was the resistance from a couple of Senate Republicans to Trump’s move, raising questions as to how successful any attempts to erode the Fed’s independence would be. In particular, Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, said that he would oppose confirming any nominee for the Fed until this was resolved. That’s significant, because the Senate Banking Committee is split 13-11 to the Republicans, so Tillis’ opposition would lead to a split if the others voted along party lines. And there were other Republican Senators who voiced concern, with Lisa Murkowski saying that “the administration’s investigation is nothing more than an attempt at coercion.” On top of that, another argument for the limited reaction was that Powell’s term as Chair was already ending in May, so a change in leadership was expected anyway in the next few months. Moreover, previous episodes last year have also led to the sense that the administration don’t want a negative bond market reaction, given long-end yields flow through to mortgage rates, which they’d prefer to keep contained. Clearly it’s a moving situation though, and these are a huge couple of weeks for the Fed, as the Supreme Court are hearing arguments in the Lisa Cook case on Jan 21, ahead of the FOMC meeting on Jan 27-28.
One asset class that did hold on to almost all of its move were precious metals, which surged to fresh records with gold (+1.97%) up to $4,598/oz, and silver (+6.57%) up to $85.10/oz. In addition to investors becoming more concerned about potential currency debasement and future inflation, these were supported by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This related in particular to possible US steps towards Iran and late in the day Trump posted that “effective immediately” any country “doing business” with Iran will pay a tariff 25% on trade with the US. In theory, this would most impact countries across Asia, with China being Iran’s biggest trading partner.
However, we’ve not yet heard any further details or an executive order implementing this tariff threat, and markets have taken Trump’s post in their stride overnight. The Shanghai Comp is flat and the Hang Seng up +0.94%. Elsewhere Japanese stocks are flying, but in line with where futures were this time yesterday during their holiday, with the Nikkei (+3.21%) responding to the media speculation since Friday that Takaichi is considering a snap lower house election as early as February. Elsewhere the KOSPI (+1.13%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.59%) are also performing well. S&P 500 (-0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.31%) futures are trading slightly lower though.
Coming back to Japan, the election fever has seen the yen (-0.39%) fall to its lowest level since July 2024, trading at 158.76 against the dollar, and 10-year (+5.7bps), 20-year (+5.8bps), and 30-year (+6.1bps) JGBs trading at 2.15%, 3.13%, and 3.46%, respectively this morning.
Looking forward, the next big test will be the US CPI print, which is out at 13:30 London time today. As a reminder, the last print came on the softer side, but there were various methodological issues from the shutdown which meant it was treated with caution. For instance, the shelter numbers saw a huge drop-off that’s more usually consistent with recessions, hence we saw some scepticism around the numbers. For this time round, our US economists expect the print to come in on the stronger side, unwinding some of the distortions from the government shutdown. So they expect headline CPI to come in at a monthly +0.36%, with core pretty similar at +0.35%.
Ahead of all that, equities put in a steady performance on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.16%) inching up to a new record. However, financials were an underperformer, and the KBW Bank Index (-0.95%) lost ground after Trump’s post that he was calling for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%. How realistic that is to implement is a moot point and it may actually reduce credit to the poorer population. So an interesting set up for JP Morgan (-1.43%) to kick off earnings season before the bell today.
Elsewhere there were stronger performances, with consumer staples (+1.42%) the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 as Walmart rose +3.00% after NASDAQ’s announcement that they’d join the NASDAQ 100 on Jan 20. The Mag-7 (-0.03%) had a mixed session, but Alphabet (+1.00%) became the latest tech giant to cross the $4trn valuation mark as Google confirmed a “multi-year deal” to power the AI technology for Apple’s iPhones. While Microsoft and Apple also crossed the $4trn level last year, Nvidia is currently the only company with a higher valuation than Alphabet, which has surged by over 100% from post-Liberation Day lows last spring.
Over in Europe yesterday, markets had put in a stronger performance, as they weren’t affected as much by the Federal Reserve news. So sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps) all coming down. In addition, equities also outperformed, with the STOXX 600 (+0.21%) at a new record, whilst the DAX (+0.57%) advanced for a 10th consecutive session for the first time since summer 2024. In fact, if we get an 11th advance today, it would be the longest run of gains for the DAX since 2014.
Looking at the day ahead, and data releases include the US CPI print for December, along with the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Kocher, and the Fed’s Musalem and Barkin. Earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon.
1b European opening report
1c Asian opening report
European equity futures positive; ahead, BoE’s Bailey to speak and US CPI – Newsquawk European Opening News
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 01:32 AM
- Trump admin nears a deal with Taiwan; trade deal would cut tariffs and include a commitment from TSMC (TSM) to build more manufacturing plants in the US.
- USD/JPY initially saw weakness following comments by Japan’s FinMin Katayama stating that US Treasury Secretary Bessent shares the concerns over the weak JPY; PM Takaichi confirmed her intent to hold snap elections, Kyodo reports.
- US President Trump has been briefed on a range of military and covert options against Iran, according to CBS News; however, no final decision has been made, and diplomatic channels remain open.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash closed +0.3% on Monday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB (Dec), US CPI (Dec), Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, EIA STEO, Speakers include BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Barkin and Musalem. Supply from the UK, Italy, Germany, US. Earnings from JPMorgan, Delta Air, Bank of New York Mellon.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks managed to close in the green, seeing gradual strength throughout the session, paring the weakness seen overnight. The Russell outperformed while sectors were mixed. Consumer Staples led the gains, largely due to Walmart (WMT) rising on news that it is to be added to the Nasdaq 100 index. Financials lagged, however, on Trump’s aim at credit card fees, calling on them to be capped – which hit banks ahead of earnings. Elsewhere, focus lay largely on Fed independence threats after the DoJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell over building renovation costs.
- SPX +0.16% at 6.977, NDX +0.08% at 25,788, DJI +0.17% at 49,590, RUT +0.44% at 2,636
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump said any countries doing business with Iran are to pay a 25% tariff on any or all business being done with the US.
- Taiwan officials said ‘some’ consensus has been reached with the US on a trade deal.
- Trump admin nears a deal with Taiwan; trade deal would cut tariffs and include a commitment from TSMC (TSM), to build more manufacturing plants in the US. TSMC to build at least five more Arizona Semiconductor facilities under new US deal. US-Taiwan trade deal to reduce tariffs on the island’s exports to 15%.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said there were some detailed proposals on rare earth supply chains during the meeting with the US. A potential price floor on rare earths was discussed.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted that he was pleased to hear a strong, shared desire to quickly address key vulnerabilities in critical minerals supply chains; “I am optimistic that nations will pursue prudent derisking over decoupling”.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump reportedly unhappy about AG Pam Bondi’s performance and has repeatedly complained to aides, according to WSJ citing sources.
- US President Trump posted “I never want Americans to pay higher electricity bills because of Data Centers”, said Microsoft (MSFT) will make a major change this week to make sure Americans do not “pick up the tab” for their power consumption.
- House Republican leaders intend to put the next funding package up for a vote on Wednesday night, according to Politico citing sources.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) said we do not require upfront payment and would never require customers to pay for products they do not receive.
- AbbVie (ABBV) has signed an agreement with the Trump administration, securing a tariff exemption.
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed’s Williams (Voter, Neutral) said monetary policy is well positioned amid a favourable outlook and that policy is now closer to neutral, well-positioned ahead of January rate decision; expect that we’ll see [the labour market] stabilize this year. In the Q&A, Fed’s Williams reiterated that he expects improved labour market demand. Confident the Fed will return inflation to 2%. Jobs market is unusual with low hiring, low firing. Lastly, he stated that the Fed is not under strong influence to change rates.
- Blackrock’s Rick Rieder said stories on meeting with US President Trump on Fed role are reasonably accurate; thinks that the Fed seat is independent; Fed has to get rates down to 3%, via CNBC interview.
- House Speaker Johnson said he intends to let the Fed Chair Powell investigation play out and not jump to any conclusions. Need to bring more natgas online, producing electricity to help meet demand.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly told Trump late Sunday that Federal investigation into Powell “made a mess” and could be bad for financial markets, via Axios. Bessent didn’t question the need for a Powell investigation and wasn’t defending the Fed Chair in his talk with Trump. Bessent “thought that when the president named a new Fed chair, that Powell would go. But now that’s not going to happen,” another source said. “Now [Powell is] dug in. This really made a mess of things.”
- ECB’s Villeroy said “fanciful” to think ECB could raise key rate this year and a fall in the Dollar is possible if Fed independence is challenged.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- Asia-Pac stocks followed on from Monday’s gains, with equities mostly in the green.
- ASX 200 started the session on the front foot, +0.4%, before extending gains and currently trading just shy of session highs at 8835. With spot XAU trading near ATHs, this has aided sectors such as metals and mining (2.0%) to continue Monday’s gains.
- Nikkei 225 returned from its long weekend with a gap higher, resulting in the index opening with gains as much as 3.7% and forming new ATHs. This comes amid a weaker JPY and growing speculation of PM Takaichi dissolving parliament. Japanese media noted that the LDP was looking to capitalise on Takaichi’s high approval ratings.
- KOSPI opened Tuesday’s trade at ATHs and oscillated at highs before peaking at 4681 and slightly paring back, but remains comfortably in the green.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. opened in line with the broader sentiment, with the former surging higher, aided by gains in Gigadevice (3986 HK). The latter is the laggard across Asia-Pacific equities, trading with slight gains of 0.2%.
- US equity futures continued to pull back from ATHs, with losses led by big-tech (NQ -0.3%) while S&P 500 futures return to 7000.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash closed +0.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY continued to grind back higher towards 99.00, as continued weakness in the JPY helps the greenback pare back some of the losses seen in Monday’s session following heightened worries over Fed independence.
- EUR/USD continued to grind lower, finding a trough at 1.1656, but remaining in tight ranges as the market awaits the US CPI report.
- GBP/USD was oscillating in a tight 13 pip range from 1.3463 to 1.3477. BRC retail sales ticked lower to 1.0% Y/Y from 1.2%, but this failed to spark a reaction in cable.
- USD/JPY initially saw weakness following comments by Japan’s FinMin Katayama stating that US Treasury Secretary Bessent shares the concerns over the weak JPY, signalling potential intervention on the horizon. However, the speculation on whether PM Takaichi may dissolve parliament may, in part, be driving recent price action, with USD/JPY reversing higher and peaking at 158.50.
- Antipodeans continued to be the outperformers, with NZD/USD and AUD/USD both seeing gains of 0.1%, as these high-beta currencies continue to track the performance of XAU, despite the yellow metal trading -0.2%.
- CNH experienced modest weakness following a weaker CNY fixing vs expectations for a stronger fix.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0103 vs exp. 6.9734 (Prev. 6.9849)
FIXED INCOME
- UST Futures were muted, following on from the rangebound price action in Monday’s US cash session. This comes as markets wait for the December CPI report. Market expectations signal that headline inflation will hold at 2.7% while core inflation is expected to tick higher to 2.7% from 2.6%.
- Bund Futures oscillated in a tight 5 tick range before ticking lower slowly despite light newsflow. Looking ahead, a 5-year Bobl auction and US CPI could bring in some volatility into the German debt space.
- JGB Futures reopened and fell by as much as 71 ticks following the speculation that PM Takaichi may dissolve parliament and call an election, as recent polls show improved confidence in the PM. JGBs pared back at least half the move as the APAC session continued, with Japanese 10-year debt around 132.10.
- Australia sold AUD 300mln 4.75% 2054 AGB; b/c 2.34x (prev. 2.85x), average yield 5.1953% (prev. 5.0603%).
- US sold USD 39bln of 10-year notes; stop-through 0.7bps. High Yield: 4.173% (prev. 4.175%, six-auction avg. 4.169%). WI: 4.180%. Tail: -0.7bps (prev. 0.0bps, six-auction avg. 0.1bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.55x (prev. 2.55x, six-auction avg. 2.51x). Dealers: 5.9% (prev. 8.8%, six-auction avg. 9.9%). Directs: 24.5% (prev. 21.0%, six-auction avg. 20.6%). Indirects: 69.6% (prev. 70.2%, six-auction avg. 69.5%).
- US sold USD 58bln of 3-year notes; stops through 0.1bps. High Yield: 3.609% (prev. 3.614%, six-auction avg. 3.636%): WI 3.610%. Tail: -0.1bps (prev. -0.8bps, six-auction avg. -0.4bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.65x (prev. 2.64x, six-auction avg. 2.65x). Dealers: 14% (prev. 9.0%, six-auction avg. 12.0%). Directs: 29.5% (prev. 19.0%, six-auction avg. 24.6%). Indirects: 56.5% (prev. 72.0%, six-auction avg. 63.3%).
- US sold USD 86bln of 3-month bills at 3.570%, b/c 2.79x.
- US sold 6-month bills at high rate 3.490%, b/c 3.17x.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures oscillated in tight ranges amid a lack of geopolitical updates regarding the US-Iran situation. CBS News did report that US President Trump has been briefed on military and covert options against Iran, but no final decision has been made.
- Precious Metals (XAU, XAG) pulled back from their record highs reached in Monday’s session as traders take some profit ahead of the US CPI report. After peaking at a new ATH of USD 4630/oz, spot XAU pulled back and has found resistance back below USD 4600/oz.
- Base Metals traded mixed, with 3M LME Copper posted modest gains before seeing a modest pullback alongside performance in China, but remained above USD 13k/t. This comes amid worries that the recent gains in copper may sharply pull back if demand for the metal slows in 2026.
- Citi said its 3-month price target for gold and silver is now USD 5000/oz and USD 100/oz respectively.
- US reportedly allows Mexico to provide oil to Cuba despite Trump’s vow to cut off supply, according to CBS News.
- Interior Secretary Burgum thinks seeing historic shift where OPEC’s power is going to be diminished – CNBC. If start seeing low oil prices it is an opportunity to fill the SPR.
- Talks at Chilean copper mine Mantoverde remain stalled as strike continues to affect production.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin holds above USD 91,000 amid a pullback in equities stateside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan PM Takaichi confirms her intent to hold snap elections, Kyodo reports.
- China says it opposes unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction”, following the 25% tariff on US trade for countries doing business with Iran.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she shared concerns with US Treasury Secretary Bessent over weak JPY.
- Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi says assessments are ongoing into the impact of China’s decision to restrict exports to Japan of dual-use items for military purposes.
- Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi states that PM Takaichi’s administration maintains responsible, proactive policies while ensuring fiscal discipline and avoiding reckless spending. Furthermore, Kiuchi says that we are not in a state to declare exit from deflation right now.
- South Korea’s financial regulator said that local insurers will have to maintain enhanced capital ratio requirements starting in 2027 in a move to strengthen the capital quality, according to Yonhap.
- China Vanke (2202 HK) proposes to further extend grace period for repayment to 90 trading days from 30.
- South Korea Finance Ministry Official said we are considering issuing FX stabilisation bonds as early as January to build FX reserves.
- China examines foreign ETF trades after Jane Street India probe, Bloomberg reported.
- SK Hynix (000660 KS) is to spend KRW 19tln on South Korea chip packaging facilities, Bloomberg reported.
- SK Hynix (000660 KS) has decided to stick with its advanced MR-MUF process for the 16-stack HBM4 instead of adopting fluxless bonding following an evaluation that fell short of expectations.
- Korea Zinc (010130 KS) signs a rare earths partnership agreement with Alta Resource Technologies.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is to supply automotive 5G modems to Tesla (TSLA).
- German Finance Minister said they do not have time to lose on rare earths; will be central topic under G7 French Presidency. Many open questions remain after G7 rare earths meeting. Price floor and partnerships were discussed as options to secure rare earths. There was no reaction from China to the G7 meeting. Discussion on price floors has just started, we need to check details.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
- Japanese Current Account (Nov) 3.674tln vs Exp. 3.594tln (Prev. 2.834tln, Rev. 2.834tln).
- Japanese Bank Lending YoY (Dec) Y/Y 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%).
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) 92.9 vs. Exp. 97 (Prev. 94.5).
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jan) -1.7% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. -9.0%, Rev. -9%).
- New Zealand NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q4) 89.8% vs. Exp. 89.3% (Prev. 89.1%).
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian drones hit two foreign-flagged vessels near Ukraine’s port of Chornomorsk on Monday, according to source reports.
- Kyiv Mayor said the Russians are attacking the capital with ballistic missiles and that explosions are being heard.
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump has been briefed on a range of military and covert options against Iran, according to CBS News; however no final decision has been made and diplomatic channels remain open.
- “EU intends to impose new sanctions on Iran”, Sky News Arabia reported.
- “Washington called on Dual U.S.-Iranian Citizens to Leave Iran”, Al Arabiya reported.
- US President Trump is leaning towards striking Iran to punish the regime for killing protesters, but hasn’t made a final decision and is exploring Iranian proposals for negotiations, a White House official with direct knowledge told Axios.
- Iranian authorities claim that the situation is ‘under control’.
- The White House is weighing a last-ditch Iranian offer to engage in diplomacy over curbing its nuclear programme even as President Trump currently leans toward authorising fresh military strikes on Iran, WSJ reported citing officials. Vance leading effort by some aides to persuade Trump to engage in negotiations with Tehran.
- White House Press Secretary Leavitt said air strikes one of many options for Iran and Trump has interest in exploring Iranian messages. Trump is not afraid to use military force on Iran, but wants diplomacy.
- White House said Iran’s public statements differ from private messages sent to the US.
- Iran reportedly ships USD 2.7bln worth of missiles to Russia, according to Bloomberg.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araqji confirmed in a conversation with Al Jazeera that he was in contact with US Envoy Witkoff and that they were discussing the possibility of a meeting; “There are all kinds of ideas and we are testing them”, Axios reported.
OTHERS
- At least two unsanctioned supertankers are departing Venezuelan waters carrying crude oil, according to reports citing TankerTrackers.
- White House Press Secretary said US will continue to seize tankers that will be heading from Venezuela without US permission. Continuing to iron out some energy deals on Venezuela. Venezuelan interim authorities agree to release political prisoners.
- White House officials said US President Trump will meet Venezuela’s Machado on Thursday.
- White House Press Secretary said US President Trump has no set timeline for acquiring Greenland.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales Y/Y (Dec) 1.0% (Prev. 1.2%)
2b. JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA/EU
China–EU EV Conflict Nears Resolution As New Pricing Framework Emerges
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 02:45 AM
China and the EU took a significant step Monday toward easing their long-running electric vehicle trade dispute after Brussels released rules that could allow Chinese exporters to replace punitive tariffs with negotiated pricing commitments, according to the South China Morning Post.
The European Commission said companies may submit price undertakings that must be “adequate to eliminate the injurious effects of the subsidies and provide equivalent effect to duties”. Exporters are encouraged to include shipment limits and future EU investments, with assessments conducted under WTO rules. If accepted, the EU would revise its existing regulations.
The conflict dates back to the EU’s 2023 anti-subsidy probe, which resulted in 2024 duties of 7.8% to 35.3% for five years. China responded with investigations into European cognac, dairy and pork. While the tariffs technically remain, the new framework could replace them with minimum import prices.
China’s Ministry of Commerce welcomed the move, saying “the progress fully reflects the spirit of dialogue and the outcomes of consultations between China and the EU.” It added: “It shows that both China and the EU have the ability and willingness to properly resolve differences through dialogue and consultation under the framework of WTO rules and maintain the stability of automotive industrial and supply chains in China, the EU and the whole world,” calling it “conducive not only to ensuring the healthy development of China-EU economic and trade relations, but also to safeguarding the rules-based international trade order.”
SCMP writes that negotiations gained momentum after the EU began reviewing a price undertaking offer in December from Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture. Economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis called the potential shift from tariffs to price floors a major development.
China’s chamber of commerce in the EU described the move as a “soft landing” and “a constructive step forward for China–EU trade and investment cooperation, as well as for the broader bilateral relationship”, adding: “The consensus and arrangements reached will significantly strengthen business confidence, [and] create a more stable and predictable environment for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and related supply-chain companies investing and operating in Europe.”
Cui Hongjian of Beijing Foreign Studies University cautioned the change remains largely technical, noting that “At present, both sides are grappling with a certain lack of confidence [in each other].” Garcia-Herrero warned the scheme could weaken EU trade enforcement, raise costs for European buyers, and deepen Europe’s reliance on Chinese investment.
END
CHINA/USA
Beijing Responds As Trump’s Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal
China sharply criticized Washington’s move to levy tariffs on countries trading with the Islamic Republic of Iran, issuing a statement Tuesday – less than 12 hours after President Trump announced the punitive action on Truth Social – condemning the decision.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “China’s position on the tariff issue is very clear.” She said, “We have always believed that there are no winners in a tariff war. China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
The Chinse embassy in Washington also blasted the move, characterizing the US action as “exceeding legal frameworks.”
The United States will impose a 25% tariff on any nation conducting business with Iran. “Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive,” Trump had declared.
But this could have broader unintended consequences, and threatens to derail Washington’s fragile trade deal with Beijing, which remains Tehran’s largest trading partner. According to more of the Chinese response:
The world’s top two economies had secured an interim trade deal in late October that saw a roll back of punitive U.S. tariffs on China, while Beijing paused its sweeping rare earth export controls.
In response to Trump’s tariff threat China said it “firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” while warning that it would take “all necessary measures” to defend its interests, according to a post on X by a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, told CNBC that if Trump is serious about the 25% rate, “that is a massive escalation from current tariff levels.”
“The last time we played this game, we ended up with tariff levels at 145%” – she added, warning about the potential for a tit-for-tat spiral, which would further halt any future plans of US soybean exports to China.
Trump’s tariff decision comes amid violent unrest in Iran, described by Tehran as foreign-backed riots, which have left dozens dead – or possibly even hundreds according to unverified reports – including civilians and numerous members of the security forces.
Since the unrest began more than two weeks ago, the US president has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran, pledging to “rescue” anti-government protesters.
Iran’s national currency has collapsed to a record low, effectively losing all value against the US dollar. The economic downturn, driven largely by years of brutal US sanctions, has fueled widespread public discontent. But this street anger is also being ‘hijacked’ by external powers which want to see Iran destabilized, weakened, and it’s ruling clerics and leaders overthrown.
END
4 EUROPEAN/NATO AFFAIRS/SCANDINAVIA
HUNGARY/EU
EU Official Plotted To ‘Organize Resistance’ Against Hungary’s Orban, Files Show
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Kit Klarenberg via The GrayZone,
A senior European Union official has been secretly seeking to remove Hungarian President Viktor Orban since at least 2019, according to leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone. The files show in January 2019, the EU’s International Coordinator for the Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, Marton Benedek, authored a “project proposal” aimed at “developing a permanent coordination forum to organize resistance against the Orban regime.” In addition to his role at the European border control agency, Benedek currently heads Brussels’ “cooperation” with Libya.
The impetus for Benedek’s plot was “an unprecedented set of anti-regime demonstrations in Hungary and among expat Hungarians” over controversial proposed legislation allowing businesses to compel employees to work overtime, and delay payment of their wages for an extended period. Thousands took to the streets before and after its implementation.
According to Benedek, outrage over what he referred to as “the slave law” had “compelled a small group of some 30 political, trade union and civic leaders to coordinate their activities, agree on a set of minimum objectives and funding principles, and jointly plan future action.” This had given birth to “an ad hoc coordination forum… which could develop, over time, into an incipient political coordinating body that could credibly challenge” Orban’s rule.
Benedek’s proposal to harness resistance to the so-called “slave law” and bring its opponents into a single political movement was likely a reaction to the pro-sovereignty positions pursued by Orban and his Fidesz party, which has consistently sought to maintain national veto power for member states and to prevent the bloc from enlarging further, to the great chagrin of Brussels.
Participating in the “ad hoc coordination forum” were a variety of NGOs, many of which have been acccused of receiving funds from George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. OSF relocated its Hungarian office to Berlin in April 2018, due to Orban’s government undertaking numerous measures to curb the activities and influence of foreign-financed NGOs locally. OSF activities in Budapest have been a closely-guarded secret ever since. Nonetheless, the most recent available figures indicate Soros’ personal regime change operation pumped $8.9 million into Hungary in 2021 alone.
The source who obtained the files told The Grayzone that the proposal was submitted to Open Society Foundations, although they were unable to furnish proof that the Soros-led organization received the documents or signed off on them.
In the document, Benedek wrote that he hoped “to develop a few ideas to transform this forum into a potent entity capable of planning and executing collective action” ahead of elections that would be held in Hungary in 2019 and 2022. Benedek stressed the need for expansive financing to “deliver results” not least as organizing a single “large demonstration in Budapest” cost roughly $11,000. The then-ongoing demonstrations relied on crowdfunding, and Hungarian political parties – which receive state funding – to cover “gaps” in “project management.”
Among Benedek’s “proposed lines of action” was the creation of “a non-profit entity, registered in Hungary (for operational activities) and a financial vehicle potentially registered in Austria.” A board comprising political party representatives, trade unions and NGOs “could provide the political steer for future action.”
Benedek sought to maintain as broad of an anti-Orban coalition as possible, warning against “rapidly proceeding to controversial projects,” for instance uniting opposition parties to contest European elections. As these votes are “contested in a fully proportional system,” it was “quite rational” for parties “to run individual party lists.”
Instead, Benedek looked ahead to “organizing collective action” and “sustained opposition to the Orban regime” over contentious domestic political issues ahead of Hungary’s 2019 local and 2022 national elections. The operation would involve “primary campaigns, information campaigns, mobilisation campaigns, electoral debates and joint fundraising activities,” he wrote.
The senior EU functionary concluded by suggesting his proposed organization would ultimately morph into a shadow government that could seize power from the Hungarian president. “In the longer run, the proposed non-profit entity could also… develop the policy foundations (and shadow cabinet) of a united political front against the Orban regime.”
A failed test-run for toppling Orban?
By this point, Benedek had been intimately involved in anti-Orban activism in Hungary for many years, while also working in a variety of senior EU posts related to bloc enlargement and relations between aspiring member states. An official profile reveals he “led the European Commission’s visa liberalization dialogue” with the breakaway statelet of Kosovo, “oversaw rule of law reforms in the Western Balkans,” and coordinated “the EU’s internal security policies during Hungary’s EU Council Presidency” in 2011.
Benedek’s determined plotting against Orban clearly constitutes a conflict of interest. In October 2012 – the year that Orban’s disputes with Brussels significantly intensified – Benedek co-founded a party called Együtt, or Together. A progressive liberal party, it sought to forge an extremely broad political coalition in Hungary. Együtt’s explicit objective was to seize power and undo all reforms enacted by Fidesz since taking office two years prior. Its leaders urged parties of every ideological extraction to join their cause.
Read Benedek’s anti-Orban project proposal here.
Despite much initial media hype framing Együtt as Hungary’s premier opposition entity, and therefore a threat to Orban’s grip on power, the party failed miserably. Having been flatly rejected by the country’s right-wing, it formed a coalition with a quartet of green, liberal and social democratic parties. This was sufficient to elect three MPs to Budapest’s 199-seat parliament in 2014, although four years later that figure fell to just one. The lone lawmaker promptly defected to another party, and Együtt folded.
Despite the cataclysmic results, and Együtt’s chiefs being forced to pay back close to half a million dollars in state funding they received for campaigning activities due to abysmal electoral performance, Benedek was undeterred. In a 2017 interview, he branded allegations that his family had improperly profited from his mother’s senior position within the EU as a “Fidesz lie.” The fact that he was reaping a sizable salary from Brussels for sensitive, high-level work, while simultaneously playing opposition politician at home, was left unmentioned by his interviewers.
This matter should’ve been a source of significant critical interest and inquiry, however. Under formal rules, EU civil servants are supposed to be impartial and politically neutral. Officials must declare any personal or political interests that could compromise their independence, and obtain permission from superiors before engaging in external activity. One might think Benedek engaging in nakedly partisan political campaigning, both covert and overt, would be prohibited – unless of course it was signed off upon at the bloc’s highest levels.
In the leaked 2019 “project proposal,” Benedek boasted that “an online community that yours truly set up” was part of the anti-Orban “coordination forum.” That group, “Hazajöttünk túlórázni” (“We came home for overtime”), had attracted the interest of thousands of Hungarian emigres, which were drawn together when it “organised demonstrations against the Orban regime in 35 cities in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.” How these actions were funded, and whether the EU played any role in bankrolling them, remains unclear.
While Együtt’s crusade to dislodge Orban crashed and burned, the experience offered clear lessons for future contenders. The first of these was that Hungarians are overwhelmingly right-wing, dooming virtually any explicitly progressive, liberal movement to failure. Second, and equally important, as Benedek noted in his “project proposal,” was that European parliament votes are conducted under proportional representation, making it much easier for smaller parties to break through in Brussels than in national elections. Recent political developments suggest Együtt’s contemporaries learned from their efforts, and adapted accordingly.
EU ‘resistance’ ambitions fulfilled by Tisza?
In March 2024, a little-known figure named Peter Magyar exploded onto Budapest’s political scene when he released secret recordings of his ex-wife, former Justice Minister Judit Varga, revealing that senior government figures attempted to sabotage the prosecution of a state official for corruption. Varga had resigned the previous month along with Hungarian President Katalin Novak, for signing off on the pardon of the deputy director of an orphanage who was implicated in covering up pedophilia.
Ever since, Varga has repeatedly claimed Magyar was physically abusive, and that she made the incriminating statements under duress. She has variously alleged Magyar locked her in a room without her consent, violently shoved her into a door while she was pregnant, and stormed around their shared residence menacing her with a knife. In April 2024, a police report was released exposing how Magyar attempted to forcibly seize custody of the pair’s children, while making a variety of threats to Varga. He denies the report’s authenticity.
These revelations have fallen almost entirely on deaf ears, however, while Magyar’s star has grown inexorably. Magyar became chief of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party almost overnight, and was immediately bestowed the title of “opposition leader” by mainstream media. While founded in 2020, Tisza had not previously competed in any elections or ever publicly campaigned. However, in the June 2024 European parliament election, Tisza garnered almost 30% of the vote, and seven seats. Today, the party enjoys a significant lead over Orban’s Fidesz in many national opinion polls.
From the very inception of Magyar’s stratospheric ascent, his political activities have been of intense interest to Western news outlets, with protests he routinely leads generating saturation coverage. At no point have obvious questions been asked as to whether Magyar’s abrupt emergence as Hungary’s leader-in-waiting was an organic phenomenon, or how his activities have been funded. Despite repeated promises, Magyar has yet to provide the public with any detailed financial statements. Instead, he claims Tisza relies on “micro-donations” from average citizens, and the largesse of popular local anti-government actor Ervin Nagy.
Immediately after Magyar assumed leadership over Tisza, he barnstormed through towns and villages across the country. The spectacular campaign often saw him addressing crowds from large stages featuring concert-ready audio equipment, along with videographers and professional security. Magyar has also been supported by highly sophisticated PR and social media efforts, as well as a liberal-leaning local mainstream media ecosystem which seems increasingly desperate to market him to right-wing voters.
In 2024, Hungarian academic Zsolt Enyedi published a typical profile of Magyar’s party, marvelling at Tisza’s “meteoric” and “unprecedented” rise, while acknowledging that its “ideological profile” is “amorphous” – which is quite an understatement.
Though he claims to be conservative, Magyar’s positions on many issues are unclear. For example, he has visited Ukraine and branded Moscow the proxy war’s “aggressor,” while Tisza has voted for European Parliament resolutions calling for more weapons for Kiev. The party’s representatives performatively donned Ukrainian flag t-shirts as they cheered Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 2024 address to the chamber.
Magyar has also promised to adopt the EU’s ban on Russian energy imports, a position opposed by the overwhelming majority of Hungarians. Adding to the confusion, Tisza supports the government’s refusal to send weapons to Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s EU accession. Magyar has admitted he avoids taking concrete positions on Ukraine, as the topic is “divisive” among domestic constituents. Pointed questions about his penchant for flip-flopping have prompted Tisza’s leader to storm out of live TV interviews.
Hungary on the verge of EU subjugation?
Nonetheless, one policy area in which Magyar is consistent, unequivocal, and in stark opposition to Fidesz, is the EU. Defining himself as avidly pro-European, he supports adoption of the Euro, as well as greater EU integration and federalism. If he comes to power, Budapest will no longer be an irritant to Brussels’ designs. It is likely to back the Ukrainian proxy war “for as long as it takes,” as EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly pledged, and to eliminate the remaining vestiges of sovereignty from the bloc’s members.
Since late 2022, the EU has withheld billions of euros from Hungary due to “rule of law concerns.” Accessing these vast sums would require Fidesz to undertake major reforms in eight separate policy areas. However, Magyar has claimed once he takes office and Budapest is “a fully-fledged member of the EU,” the funds will instantly be unfrozen – a key Tisza pledge, which has propelled the party’s surging popularity ahead of Hungary’s national elections in April.
If current polling trends hold, Marton Benedek’s clandestine scheme to “organize resistance” and “credibly challenge” Orban may finally be fulfilled.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
tbn israel last 24 hrs…
ISRAEL VS HAMAS
IRAN
Trump ‘Favors’ Attacking Iran, Vance Pushing Back, As President Pezeshkian In Streets For Large Counter-Protests
Monday, Jan 12, 2026 – 06:20 PM
Update(1820ET): There are reports of a significant internal Trump administration divide over Iran policy, with Vice President Vance said to be leading the charge for the non-interventionist camp, which much of MAGA might welcome while seeing in Vance the top contender for 2028:
President Trump currently leans toward authorizing fresh military strikes on Iran, U.S. officials say, as the White House is weighing a last-ditch Iranian offer to engage in diplomacy over curbing its nuclear program.
Some senior administration aides, led by Vice President JD Vance, are urging Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against Iran for killing protesters. Trump hasn’t made a final decision on what he will do and will meet with senior aides Tuesday to determine his approach.
Some in the U.S. doubt that Iran is genuine about ending its nuclear program, telling Trump that Tehran may be finding a way to buy time and avoid American airstrikes. Aides have briefed Trump on the benefits and pitfalls of renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Trump currently favors attacking Iran, but could change his mind depending on unfolding developments. Some officials said Trump may strike first and then seek serious talks with Tehran. “We may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting,” he said Sunday.
But all of this might become moot, or else it could be said Trump will have an easy ‘out’ or offramp and not attack Iran, given the latest reports from inside the country show waning anti-govt protests. Instead, they’ve been supplanted by huge pro-government counter-demonstrations. “Millions” or at least hundreds of thousands have come out for these ‘loyalist’ demonstrations. And even the country’s President Masoud Pezeshkian was out confidently and defiantly strolling the streets Monday…
One regional analyst and observer reacts to Monday’s developments, after a weekend security crackdown unleashed at least scores of casualties:
The Islamic Republic is sending two important signals here:
1. It retains control in large cities (or at least the ones/areas we’re getting footage from)
2. It can still countermobilize its base of support (and others forced to turn out) in large numbers.
He concludes, “If this is it, these anti-regime protests may well fizzle out before long, although I’ve noted major ‘landmines’ ahead for the Islamic Republic in 2026.”
Another hugely important development Monday, ultimately aimed at China…
And still “on the table”…
x.com/BillMelugin_/status/2010755693142220983?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2010755693142220983%7Ctwgr%5Eaa6eba59572e786fbb7474fb27ffaefdb2faee12%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fdoj-charges-venezuelan-illegal-over-border-patrol-vehicle-ramming-attack
* * *
Update(10:15ET): Iran’s Supreme Leader is really playing with fire here in posting the below image on X. While the message didn’t appear on his English language account, it is on his Persian account, and thus mainly directed at the Ayatollah’s own domestic population.
According to a machine translation, the message says: “That father figure who sits there with arrogance and pride, passing judgment on the entire world, he too should know that usually the tyrants and oppressors of the world, such as Pharaoh and Nimrod and Reza Khan and Mohammad Reza and the likes of them, when they were at the peak of their pride, were overthrown, This one too will be overthrown.”
Zerohedge.com/political/doj-charges-venezuelan-illegal-over-border-patrol-vehicle-ramming-attack
Khamenei perhaps suddenly feels more embolden to poke and mock Trump like this perhaps given the emerging widespread reports that the protests are losing steam, after weekend clashes with policy reportedly resulted in many deaths. There was definitely a major and deadly security crackdown, but this also as the government asserts that dozens of police and military have been attacked and killed, and buildings set on fire by ‘rioters’ and ‘saboteurs’.
There are also very large pro-government ‘counter protests’ taking over whole areas of cities Monday, including in the capital:
The Trump administration was quite out front with saying it would “stand” with the Iranian people, and even protect them if they come under assault from government forces. This allowed Iranian leadership to tell people in the streets that they are doing the bidding of foreign powers like the US and Israel.
This also amid more tough talk from Iran’s parliament on Monday:
Iran’s parliament speaker has described the response to the protests as a fight with “terrorists” while addressing a large rally in the capital.
Iran is fighting a “four-front war”, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, listing economic, psychological and military engagement with the United States and Israel, and “today [is] a war against terrorists”.
“The great Iranian nation has never allowed the enemy to achieve its goals,” Ghalibaf said as supporters chanted, “Death to Israel, death to America.”
He pledged Iran’s military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” in case of a new US attack, adding: “Come and see all your facilities in the region destroyed.”
Trump on Sunday did raise the question of direct help to the protesters (who may not actually be interested in Washington’s help). Trump said he will speak to Elon Musk about sending Starlink to protesters in Iran, following the government-imposed outage which has remained in place since Thursday.
“We may get the internet going if that’s possible,” the president told reporters. Elon “is very good at that kind of thing. I’m going to call him as soon as I’m finished with you.”
Is the rhetoric between Washington in Tehran softening as it becomes clear the regime is not under threat by the protests?
Iran says it is “prepared for war” but ready to negotiate with the US based on “mutual respect and interests,” after US President Donald Trump said Tehran called to negotiate as his administration weighs possible military intervention during widespread anti-government protests.
* * *
The NY Times and others are confirming that President Trump has recently been briefed on a series of new military strike options targeting Iran as he weighs whether to act on his threat to attack the country over its crackdown on protesters, which have also clearly themselves engaged in violent acts in some locales at times.
In some of among the well over 100 cities or towns where protests have raged since the end of December, buildings and even mosques have been burned, cars torched, and police officials reportedly shot and stabbed. Amid an internet blackout across the country, which has made accurate information hard to come by and/or verirfy, there is a battle of narratives and ‘infowar’ happening.
Starlink terminals were said to be smuggled into the country during the 2022 wave of protests, and so there has been some limited information and videos emerging even amid the several consecutive days of internet shutdown by the government.
President Trump during Friday’s meeting of oil executives again warned Iranian leadership not to kill protesters: “I’ve made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved,” he said. “We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts. And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.”
Trump later narrowed the warning, “I tell the Iranian leaders: You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting, too.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on top of that issued on X that “The United States supports the brave people of Iran” – something much vaguer and coupled with no specific threat.
From there, unverified reports throughout the weekend said that body bags from protest deaths were piling up. By last week, around 30 people were reported killed, including several or more among police and security officials. But by Sunday into Monday that figure ballooned.
Reuters and CNN have relied on a US-based group to claim, “More than 544 people have been killed over the past 15 days during anti-government demonstrations, including eight children, according to the Human Rights Activist New Agency (HRANA).”
This new, high death count, is unverifiable but is still being widely circulated on Monday. It has been issued at a very sensitive and dangerous moment that the anti-Ayatollah opposition which largely lives in Europe and the United States is lobbying hard to get Trump’s ear and attention.
All the usual other enemies of Tehran are being very active in this regard too, such as the powerful Israel lobby in the United States.
On the ‘options’ briefings, the NY Times has described that briefings President Trump has already received included a variety of potential actions such as strikes against nonmilitary locations in Tehran.
When reporters asked about preparations for possible military action, the White House pointed instead to the president’s recent public statements and posts on social media. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” Trump had additionally stated on Truth Social on Saturday. “The USA stands ready to help!!!”
If Trump were to actually kick off yet more US military action in the Middle East, this time against a large nation like Iran which would hold the serious potential for escalating into a full-blown conflict, it would likely prove deeply unpopular among his base. Broadly, the American public would likely not be on board.
A Goldman Sachs note highlights that the build-up rhetoric threatening US intervention in and of itself will have an impact on oil, gold, and across markets:
Attention shifts to Iran as we speak. Unlike the 2022 protests centered around social liberties, this episode looks to be triggered by economic paralysis with inflation spiking and the sudden collapse of the Iranian rial in late Dec. The protests have now turned violent with death toll rising to the hundreds. What can potentially add oil to fire is if foreign interference continues to get talked up with the US signaling the threat of a potential intervention. Oil and Gold creeping up as the Iranian unrests unfold. This illustrates our view of the insurance value of commodities. We see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations with increasing geopolitical, trade and AI competition has led to more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage.
Iranian businesses have in many cased been forced to suspend all activity because of Iran’s internet shutdown, especially those companies which are dealings or staff based abroad. The shutdown is said to be so severe that even the banking system isn’t operating, and something as simple as removing money from an ATM can’t be done.
Leadership in Tehran might have made things much worse for itself with the decision to block internet access, given the protesting and rioting crowds hadn’t dispersed, but instead clashes with police may have grown more intense and violent. Iran’s foreign ministry has been cited in Bloomberg Monday as follows:
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says police and security forces brought protests “under control” from Saturday, according to statement to state TV. Araghchi: we have huge amount of evidence pointing direct Israeli and US interference in protests Says internet will be restored “soon after full control of security situation”
“Israel is directly responsible, and also Americans through their remarks by promoting violence,” Araghchi says.
As for what’s next, President Donald Trump will be briefed on Tuesday on “some kinetic and many non-kinetic” options in Iran, according to a couple of unnamed administration officials to Politico. But there have indeed been signs that the protests have begun to abate or in some places been halted completely.
end
IDF spox.: Iran protests an internal matter, but Israel ready to respond to surprise attack
IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin reiterated that Israel sees the Iranian protests as an internal matter, stressing Israel’s readiness for any potential Iranian attack.
IDF spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin is seen in a switch-over ceremony in Tel Aviv, Israel, March 27, 2025(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJANUARY 12, 2026 22:11Updated: JANUARY 12, 2026 22:35
IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin on Monday night doubled down on prior IDF statements that Israel has no intention of intervening in the Iranian protest situation, viewing them as an internal matter.
Defrin seemed concerned about persistent rumors that the IDF would attack Iran due to the protests.
He appeared to want to avoid Tehran attacking Israel simply because of imaginary worries.Unmute
Rather, he said Israel is on heightened alert to respond to any potential Iranian surprises, but will not fire first at this time.
This follows similar statements made yesterday by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, who affirmed his view that the wave of Iranian protests and crackdown by the regime is an internal Iranian matter that does not relate to Israel.
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If Tehran attacks Israel, the IDF plans to strike back with immense power to ensure the country is safe and secure, Zamir warned.
Israel closely following Iran’s ballistic missile threat
Beyond the ongoing Iranian protests, Israel’s defense establishment continues to closely follow Iranian attempts to rebuild their ballistic missile threat against Israel.
There is no expectation of the Islamic Republic reaching a red line more dangerous volume in the near future, but that situation could also change in the coming months if Iran acquires additional technological capabilities.
Zamir held several regular situation update meetings regarding the developments in Iran.
The IDF is maintaining its highest readiness should the Islamic Republic make good on threats to strike the Jewish state, and continues to work creatively to bring additional new capabilities to the table.
END
IRAN
they do not get it. Conditions inside Iran are hopeless!!
Iran Summons European Envoys, Shows Videos Of ‘Armed Rioters’ Causing Mayhem
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 08:50 AM
Facing global condemnation and threats of US intervention over casualties associated with anti-government protests, the Iranian government summoned French, German, Italian and British ambassadors in Tehran and screened a collection of videos purportedly showing “armed violence carried out by protesters.” Saying the images belie the notion that protests have been uniformly peaceful, Iran demanded that the envoys share the videos with their respective governments and stop voicing support of the “rioters.”
The ambassadors’ Monday matinee coincided with massive pro-government demonstrations in Iran. The presentation included imagery of individuals firing pump-action shotguns and pistols. Other clips showed makeshift barricades on city streets, and groups of people vandalizing cars and flipping them over. There were also multiple apparent examples of arson, including burnt-out buildings, cars and buses. There’s also testimony given by a bloodied man, identified as a law enforcement officer, on a hospital gurney. Asked what he was hit by, he replies:
“I don’t know. Knives and things. I was holding my helmet to guard my head…then they pulled off my pants, dragged me,” reads the on-screen transcription. “I was told to get up and go. I couldn’t. Told them to help me. Then they dragged me toward the square so I got run over by cars.”
Attempting to portray the US government as hypocritical, the video presentation included a clip of anti-ICE activist Renee Good being shot in the head by ICE agents in Minneapolis last week, along with President Trump’s reaction. “The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting,” Trump said, adding that the ICE officer “seems to have shot her in self-defense.” The presentation closed with another quote from Trump, when he warned that, “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”
Iran’s foreign ministry directed the assembled diplomats to “hand over these videos to their governments and stop supporting the protesters,” saying that foreign governments giving “any form of political or information support for rioters” represents wrongful interference with Iran’s internal affairs.
According to Iranian state news outlet Press TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian accused US and Israeli intelligence agencies of training armed units, with that training happening both inside and outside the country. If outside governments are directly aiding the agitators, it wouldn’t be the first time that technique was used in an attempt to impose regime change on Iran. In 1953, US and British intelligence engineered a coup d’etat that ousted Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. “Operation Ajax” involved the use of CIA-funded Iranian agents and “rented” crowds of anti-government demonstrators.
Soon after the presentation in Tehran, the European Parliament announced a “ban [of] all diplomatic staff and any other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran from all European Parliament premises,” to avoid support the “brave people of Iran” and to avoid “aid[ing] in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder.”
Fueling diplomatic disputes, the American son of the deposed Shah of Iran urged members of the Iranian diaspora to replace the “disgraceful” flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the country’s diplomatic facilities. That exhortation came after a video went viral over the weekend, showing a protester scaling a balcony of Iran’s London embassy and replacing the flag with the version used during the Shah’s rule. Iran separately summoned the UK ambassador and formally protested “the desecration of the Iranian flag.” The former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, is aggressively pushing for US intervention and promoting himself as the best “transitional figure” after regime change.
On Sunday, Vice President Mohammad‑Reza Aref portrayed the discord as a new phase of Israel’s confrontation with Iran, after June’s 12-day war. “The enemies made a mistake by starting the riots through their key agents who were arrested by Iran’s security forces,” following which “they had no option but to accelerate their plots, which led to violent incidents in the last few nights,” Aref said. He added that Iran’s enemies have sought to thwart each of the country’s attempts to overcome foreign sanctions.
The Iranian protests began on Dec 29, with merchants railing against the plunging value of Iran’s currency — the rial now trades at 1.4 million to the dollar. More than two weeks later, the death toll is widely reported to be several hundred. Many US outlets are relying on numbers from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The group, which is a subsidiary of Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA), says 646 people have been killed through Monday, including 505 protesters, 133 security personnel, a prosecutor and seven civilian bystanders.
END
IRAN/USA
IDF says it’s on alert for ‘surprise scenarios,’ as US mulls military strikes on Iran
Israel said to believe Trump will make good on threat to attack in support of anti-regime protesters; US president puts 25% tariff on countries doing business with Tehran
By Stav Levaton, Follow
Jacob Magid Follow
and AgenciesToday, 4:50 am
The Israel Defense Forces said Monday that it remained on alert for possible “surprise scenarios” as anti-government unrest in Iran has prompted the United States to threaten intervention over the killing of protesters.
Tehran has threatened to retaliate against Israel and US military bases if it comes under American attack.
Human rights groups allege the death toll in the country has risen to 648, though it may be much higher amid an internet blackout enforced by the regime since Thursday, making it difficult to assess the reported bloodletting. Some Iranians still have access to the internet via Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, three people inside the country said.Promoted: Jewish Crossroads, Maya Tevet DayanKeep
IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin urged the public not to “lend a hand to rumors” about the ongoing situation in Iran.
“The protests in Iran are an internal matter,” he said in a post on X.
He said the IDF is “prepared defensively” and continues to hold regular situational assessments, and that it will provide updates if there are any changes.
In June, Israel waged a 12-day war with Iran that began with a sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites, and ballistic missile program. It said the attack was necessary to prevent the Islamic Republic from realizing its avowed plan to build nuclear weapons and destroy the Jewish state.
According to the Kan public broadcaster, Israel believes US President Donald Trump will make good on his threat to attack, and that this will lead to another war between Israel and Iran.
Former strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer was summoned by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join a meeting on Sunday with senior ministers and security officials as the US weighed action, according to Channel 12 news.
The network reported that Dermer was consulted due to the potentially fateful decisions that the Trump administration may take vis-à-vis Iran. Dermer, a longtime Netanyahu confidant who resigned from his post in November, had been in charge of overseeing ties with the Trump administration.
The network also quoted an unnamed Israeli source warning that Iran’s offer a few days ago to hold talks with the US is “a trap” meant to delay potential American strikes on the Islamic Republic.
In his latest attempt to pressure Tehran, Trump announced on Monday that “effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”
“This order is final and conclusive,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Brazil, China, Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are among economies that do business with Tehran.
The White House declined to offer further comment about the president’s tariff announcement.
Iran had no direct reaction to Trump’s comments, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.
While Trump has avoided explicit talk of regime change, he has threatened military action against Iran if it kills protesters.
Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership reached out to the US over the weekend, expressing interest in holding nuclear negotiations. The president said he may take up the offer but indicated he may strike Iran first.
Trump is slated to hold a security consultation on Tuesday, during which he will be briefed on potential actions to take against Iran. He is said to lean in favor of a military strike, while also remaining open to a diplomatic solution.
The president has expressed support for the protesters and has pledged that “help” is on the way, without elaborating.
The Pentagon has briefed Trump on possible military strikes, cyberattacks, and psychological measures that can be taken to support the protesters, CBS News reported, citing two American officials, who said that a final decision has not yet been made.
The US Department of State Consular Affairs has highlighted the escalating protests and said US citizens in Iran should consider leaving by land to Armenia or Turkey.
“US nationals are at significant risk of questioning, arrest, and detention in Iran,” the department said on its TravelGov account on X.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran earlier on Monday, insisted “the situation has come under total control,” in remarks that blamed Israel and the US for the violence, without offering evidence.
“That’s why the demonstrations turned violent and bloody to give an excuse to the American president to intervene,” Araghchi said, in comments carried by Al Jazeera. The Qatar-funded network has been allowed to report live from inside Iran, despite the internet being shut off.
Araghchi said Iran was “open to diplomacy,” and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that a channel to the US remained open, but talks needed to be “based on the acceptance of mutual interests and concerns, not a negotiation that is one-sided, unilateral and based on dictation.”
The demonstrations began on December 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at more than 1.4 million to $1, as Iran’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions, in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls calling for the overthrow of Iran’s theocracy.
END
IRAN/USA
Oil Spikes After Trump Urges Iranians To Keep Protesting, Says “Help On Its Way”
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 09:53 AM
Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent – but in some locations have waned. He’s told Iranians to “take over your institutions” – which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.
Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday’s reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don’t kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He’s reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY – suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.
This resulted in an immediate spike in oil prices, already amid war rumors, as the Commander-in-Chief has been briefed on military “options” – despite the Islamic Republic not having attacked the United States or any of its regional bases.
We detailed below that Iran’s government has begun to face a potential deadly insurgency, and even anti-Tehran NGOs have admitted that dozens of police and security personnel have been killed – and even knifed and shot.
* * *
Facing global condemnation and threats of US intervention over casualties associated with anti-government protests, the Iranian government summoned French, German, Italian and British ambassadors in Tehran and screened a collection of videos purportedly showing “armed violence carried out by protesters.” Saying the images belie the notion that protests have been uniformly peaceful, Iran demanded that the envoys share the videos with their respective governments and stop voicing support of the “rioters.”
The ambassadors’ Monday matinee coincided with massive pro-government demonstrations in Iran. The presentation included imagery of individuals firing pump-action shotguns and pistols. Other clips showed makeshift barricades on city streets, and groups of people vandalizing cars and flipping them over. There were also multiple apparent examples of arson, including burnt-out buildings, cars and buses. There’s also testimony given by a bloodied man, identified as a law enforcement officer, on a hospital gurney. Asked what he was hit by, he replies:
“I don’t know. Knives and things. I was holding my helmet to guard my head…then they pulled off my pants, dragged me,” reads the on-screen transcription. “I was told to get up and go. I couldn’t. Told them to help me. Then they dragged me toward the square so I got run over by cars.”
Attempting to portray the US government as hypocritical, the video presentation included a clip of anti-ICE activist Renee Good being shot in the head by ICE agents in Minneapolis last week, along with President Trump’s reaction. “The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting,” Trump said, adding that the ICE officer “seems to have shot her in self-defense.” The presentation closed with another quote from Trump, when he warned that, “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”
Iran’s foreign ministry directed the assembled diplomats to “hand over these videos to their governments and stop supporting the protesters,” saying that foreign governments giving “any form of political or information support for rioters” represents wrongful interference with Iran’s internal affairs.
According to Iranian state news outlet Press TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian accused US and Israeli intelligence agencies of training armed units, with that training happening both inside and outside the country. If outside governments are directly aiding the agitators, it wouldn’t be the first time that technique was used in an attempt to impose regime change on Iran. In 1953, US and British intelligence engineered a coup d’etat that ousted Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. “Operation Ajax” involved the use of CIA-funded Iranian agents and “rented” crowds of anti-government demonstrators.
Soon after the presentation in Tehran, the European Parliament announced a “ban [of] all diplomatic staff and any other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran from all European Parliament premises,” to avoid support the “brave people of Iran” and to avoid “aid[ing] in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder.”
Fueling diplomatic disputes, the American son of the deposed Shah of Iran urged members of the Iranian diaspora to replace the “disgraceful” flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the country’s diplomatic facilities. That exhortation came after a video went viral over the weekend, showing a protester scaling a balcony of Iran’s London embassy and replacing the flag with the version used during the Shah’s rule. Iran separately summoned the UK ambassador and formally protested “the desecration of the Iranian flag.” The former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, is aggressively pushing for US intervention and promoting himself as the best “transitional figure” after regime change.
END
CONRAD BLACK ON IRAN
| How US Action Against the Iranian Regime Could Play Out |
The world is waiting for President Trump to bring the horrible and sanguinary disaster of the last 47 years of terror, oppression, primitive bigotry, and objective failure of the Islamic Republic of Iran to an end.
Iran is the principal terrorism-sponsoring regime of the world; its entire purpose has been to expand the realm of intolerant, extreme, and murderous Islam. It has not been promoting a religion—it has been attempting to enforce by terror, and in the name of religion, murderous totalitarianism. Millions of Iranians have fled, the economy has collapsed, the currency has largely evaporated, and $1 trillion invested in nuclear missiles was vaporized in three minutes by the United States, as its president had promised.
Iran is the continuator of the distinguished Persian civilization of Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great. There have been many gaps in this long history that are not particularly well remembered, but there has never been such a horrible chapter of complete and barbarous failure as this appalling regime of bloodthirsty ayatollahs. The Islamic Republic has posted a large reward for the murder of the president of the United States. It has promised to exterminate the Jewish population of Israel. It doles out blood-curdling threats in all directions. Most of its talented citizens have been murdered or have fled, and it is clear that the overwhelming majority of resident Iranians detest their government and are now risking their lives every day in huge demonstrations to encourage President Trump to follow through on his promise not to tolerate the massacre of the civil population of Iran.
Iran is the continuator of the distinguished Persian civilization of Cyrus the Great and Darius the Great. There have been many gaps in this long history that are not particularly well remembered, but there has never been such a horrible chapter of complete and barbarous failure as this appalling regime of bloodthirsty ayatollahs. The Islamic Republic has posted a large reward for the murder of the president of the United States. It has promised to exterminate the Jewish population of Israel. It doles out blood-curdling threats in all directions. Most of its talented citizens have been murdered or have fled, and it is clear that the overwhelming majority of resident Iranians detest their government and are now risking their lives every day in huge demonstrations to encourage President Trump to follow through on his promise not to tolerate the massacre of the civil population of Iran.
| Given all of these facts, it is little wonder that the whole world is waiting upon Washington. All the ingredients are in place. Iran has promoted endless unlawful terror all over the world and secured the enmity of scores of the world’s governments. It bankrolled the appalling Assad regime in Syria, which murdered large numbers of its countrymen. It financed Hezbollah in Lebanon that effectively took over and largely destroyed that country. It financed the Houthi civil war in Yemen, and from there effectively closed for a time the Red Sea and the Suez Canal by their attacks on international shipping. It has been the greatest single supplier of the Hamas terrorist organization which has conducted a constant and savage war against Israel for decades. |
| The Islamic Republic is an utterly evil regime, and its elimination would in itself be a giant forward step for stability, human rights, and material progress in the Middle East. |
As the Iranian government is now killing innocent citizens in large numbers, it is amply meeting the criterion imposed by President Trump for recourse to what he called “not our boots on the ground, but hitting them very hard where it hurts.” That sort of language from that individual leaves little doubt that precise missile eliminations in the dead of night of all of the barracks of the Revolutionary Guard throughout the country, and the key ministries such as defense, interior, and police would be launched, and that these would severely weaken the Islamic Republic’s ability to terrorize and murder their people. Any such attack would be accompanied by the renewed elimination of Iranian air defenses, and this would permit the continuous intervention of the U.S. Air Force and the Naval Air Force over all parts of Iran, assisting the demonstrators.
If there were any need to go further, the ghost fleet that transports quarantined oil from Iran to China and other places could simply be taken over on the high seas for an indefinite period. A complete air and sea blockade could easily be imposed by the United States on Iran, and there would be neither the means nor the motivation to maintain the ayatollahs’ lifeline overland from Russia or Afghanistan. It would certainly not be done from Iraq.
Certainly, a state of considerable chaos would follow the collapse of the ayatollahs, but an international coalition of good-faith powers could be assembled to provide some sort of oversight, with the cooperation of the apparent reform elements in the restoration of order and of a new constitutional government to resume the long history of Persia. Randomly, a group of countries including India, Japan, Indonesia, Egypt, Greece, Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom would be perfectly acceptable and could be relied upon to act responsibly.
This would establish President Trump as rivaled only by Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan as the most successful foreign policy president in U.S. history. It would also provide an appropriate update for the intermittent American involvement in Iran. This effectively began with the “lend-lease” shipping of war supplies through Iran to the Soviet Union in 1942.
The following year, all three of the leaders of the Tehran Conference—Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin—met with the young Shah of Iran, whose exiled son is now the apparent leader of opposition forces. When the erratic left-wing leader Mohammad Mossaddegh nationalized the British-owned petroleum industry and drove the Shah of Iran into exile, Churchill asked for Eisenhower’s assistance, and the CIA rather effortlessly arranged a coup that sent the prime minister packing and brought the Shah back. Although authoritarian, and more secular than the population apparently wished, the Shah achieved immense progress for Iran in every field.
It was shameful when President Carter assisted in pushing out the Shah to make way for Ayatollah Khomeini. President Trump, in doing what he has threatened and has announced is in contemplation, would be redeeming America’s record in the history of its relations with that ancient country. It deserves to be awakened and emancipated from this nightmare.
end
Jewish, Israeli restaurants are on front line in war waged by anti-Israel activists – analysis
Attacks on synagogues are treated as part of a broader problem, but all too often, attacks on Jewish-owned, kosher, and Israeli restaurants are treated as isolated incidents.
People attend a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he delivers an address at the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at the U.N. headquarters, in New York, U.S., September 26, 2025(photo credit: REUTERS)ByMICHAEL STARRJANUARY 13, 2026 01:12Updated: JANUARY 13, 2026 01:16
The protest against Miznon Notting Hill restaurant in London on Friday, the gang attack on HaMakom cafe in Leipzig on Wednesday, the January 1 unionization against New York City Breads Bakery‘s participation in Israeli events, and the closure of the Tantura restaurant in Lisbon on Saturday are not isolated incidents, but are part of a broader campaign against Jewish-owned, kosher, and Israeli restaurants around the world.
The targeting of such businesses with vandalism and violence is not new, but with the wave of antisemitic and anti-Israel activism in the wake of the October 7 Massacre, these attacks have crested into a war. Calling the campaign against restaurants a war is not much of an exaggeration, as anti-Israel activists and antisemites see it as an extension of the Israel-Hamas war, and have not abated as the front in Gaza ebbed into a ceasefire.
It is Israel and Jewish communities that fail to recognize that they face a dimension of warfare. Attacks on synagogues are treated as part of a broader problem, but all too often, attacks on Jewish-owned, kosher, and Israeli restaurants are treated as isolated incidents.
Unlike synagogues, schools, and community centers, Jewish or Israeli-related restaurants and cafes have no protection. They are no less visible targets, representing Jewry in broader society, but lack the armed guards or police protection that have become ubiquitous across Europe and North America. Private citizens are left to bear the cost, having their dreams crushed by constant protests and vandalism.
Waging cultural, economic war on Israel and supporters
Anti-Israel activists see these attacks as a means of waging war on the economy and culture of Israel and its supporters, though conducted by subterfuge as a just response to supposed crimes. The attacks, like those against Israeli chain Miznon, are professed to punish its owners for purported “complicity” in a supposed Gaza “genocide.”
In July, a Miznon branch in Melbourne was attacked by a gang of anti-Israel activists reportedly associated with Whistleblowers, Activists and Communities Alliance (WACA). About 20 activists barged into the restaurant, and threw chairs and food, smashed windows, and overturned tables while chanting “death to the IDF.”
Miznon Notting Hill was picketed by anti-Israel groups led by International Jewish Anti-Zionist Network UK (IJAN UK) on Friday, with a 35-year-old activist arrested for calling for an “intifada.” According to TSC Hospitality LTD, the parent company of Erev and Miznon in the UK, this was the seventh time that they had been targeted by protesters.
“This is not legitimate protest; it is targeted harassment driven by antisemitism. We have been singled out because we are an Israeli business. Our staff have faced racist abuse and intimidation, including being called ‘murderers,’” TSC Hospitality David Goldstein told The Jerusalem Post on Monday. “Antisemitism is surging, and it is unacceptable that Jewish and Israeli-owned businesses in London are being threatened in this way. We will not close our doors. The authorities must recognise this has gone far beyond protest into racism and harassment and put an end to it.”
The alleged “complicity” in “genocide” by Miznon was, according to IJAN UK, co-owner Eyal Shani’s project providing meals to IDF troops and October 7 massacre survivors, and co-owner Shahar Segal’s media liaison work with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Shani was slammed by IJAN UK ahead of the protest for “fueling” IDF soldiers’ “killing spree while offering no sustenance” to Palestinians, but in the same Instagram post, attacked Segal for working with the GHF, which had provided 187 million meals and humanitarian aid to Gazans by the time it ended operations in November. GHF was the wrong type of aid organization, and Palestinians were ostensibly shot en masse while “queuing up for food” in a counterproductive trap.
Goldie Falafel was also targeted in December for supposed complicity in genocide, owner and chef Michael Solomonov’s alleged crimes varying from donating to a nonprofit emergency medical service immediately after the October Massacre to raising funds to allegedly firing employees wearing Palestinian flag pins in violation of a new flair rule.
“Goldie, Goldie, you can’t hide, we charge you with genocide,” activists associated with Philly Palestine Coalition chanted.
PPC also decried his status as a culinary ambassador for Israel, a partnership with the Tourism Ministry that was enough of a direct tie to an “apartheid government” that warranted boycott, but was indicative of a far greater crime that lay at the heart of the broader campaign.
Goldie, like many other restaurants, was attacked because it was engaged in the supposed theft of Palestinian and Arab cuisine. This great crime has served as an excuse for activist groups to continue their campaign during lulls in fighting in the Levant, but has continued to be wielded during wartime as well.
“Genocide cuisine” and “Israel steals culture” were painted with stencils on the door and windows of the New York City Miriam restaurant in January. Within our Lifetime leader Nerdeen Kiswani justified the graffiti, as “Zionist restaurants” profit “off of appropriated food.”
Yet the excuse is a thin veneer for the real issue that anti-Israel activists have with such businesses. When Falafel Salam was protested in September, though it advertises itself as Middle Eastern food, activists accused it of engaging in Zionist appropriation. The issue is not with food, but the perceived association or identity part, with activists demanding at the protest, “no Israeli food trucks or businesses in our neighborhoods going forward.”
Israeli food, as Philly Writers Against the War on Gaza said in a September explanation of protests against Solomonov’s holdings, legitimized “the Zionist entity.”
“‘Israeli’ food is not real,” wrote Philly WAWOG. “‘Israeli’ food is a settler fantasy.”
Any and all connections to Israel ‘merits’ protest
Even if the Israeli culinary community somehow excised any dish, ingredient, or method shared with Arab or Palestinian neighbors, the ultimate issue is that it is Israeli, and the existence of such food would mean that Israel exists – An idea that cannot be stomached by anti-Israel activists. They seek to destroy Israeli restaurants not because they want to protest Israeli cuisine, but because they want to destroy Israel.
Cuisine is a key element of culture, and the genocide will never be complete if Israeli culture remains existent. Any and all connections to Israel, regardless of how tangential, merits all manner of attack, from boycott to protest to vandalism.
This is why posting pro-Israel social media content days after the October 7 Massacre was enough to get NYC’s iconic 2nd Ave Deli covered in swastikas the same month as the Hamas-led attack.
This is why being owned by an Israeli is enough for the Upper West Side’s Effy’s Cafe to be spray-painted with messages such as “Free Gaza” and “form line here to support genocide” in March 2024, and for Purple Waves cafe to have its bathrooms vandalized with permanent marker in September. The owner’s argument for an apolitical space and hopes for peace and safety for Palestinians did not erase the original sin of being a “Jewish Israeli woman.”
Beyond the simple-minded antisemitism that is inextricably present within the anti-Israel community, the ideological opposition to Israeli cuisine is a large component of why the open season also places bounties on Kosher and Jewish-owned restaurants and cafes.
Diasporic Jewish food traditions and Jewish religious food practices have influenced or are reflected in Israeli cuisine, and are evident in Kosher and Jewish eateries. Tantura, which had been subject to constant boycotts and graffiti, had a menu that drew inspiration from various Jewish cuisines to represent the Israeli melting pot.
NYC Israeli bakery chain Breads Bakery’s employees sought to form a union to cut ties to Israel. The food, which features Diasporic staples such as rugelach, challah, bourekas, and babka, also included the forbidden act of baking Israeli flag cookies. Breads Bakery participated in the Great Nosh Jewish food festival, which is backed by pro-Israel organizations.
The kosher and Diaspora ties are also why businesses that have no readily apparent Israel connection can be targeted, allowing a brick painted with the slogan “free Palestine” to be thrown through the window of Brookline Kosher grocer The Butcherie in June, or the ransacking of a Kosher restaurant and catering business in Toronto last January.
La Briut’s Markham office was broken into and ravaged, spray-painted messages left on the wall reading “Free Gaza” and “F**k Jews,” and a few days before the North York branch was broken into and cash stolen. The campaign, by design or side effect, also allows antisemites an excuse to target Jewish businesses.
With the grandiose militant objective of destroying one aspect of Israel, any means are necessary. There is no tactic that is off limits, save by what is perceived as being digestible by the broader public, so as not to damage the pro-Palestinian movement’s reputation.
Damage to a restaurant’s reputation, however, seems easy for the public to abide by. New York City’s Safta restaurant, which had the words “Zionist Food” graffitied on a door on the recent Yom Kippur, said that it was getting negative reviews on Google “simply for existing.”
“You know, the former Israeli PM who stated Palestinians and Palestine don’t exist? Also pretty interesting to see them use Palestinian food on their incredibly subpar menu,” read one review chiding the restaurant for featuring a framed photograph of Golda Meir. “Service, bad. Customer experience, worse. Perhaps if you are going to support a genocide, you may not want to open a business broadcasting that stance.”
Boycott lists place targets on businesses
Boycotts are the most prevalent tool, seeking to cut off the cash flow to the businesses. Montreal’s Falafel Yoni was placed on a boycott list posted in 2024 by Alliance4Palestine Quebec, Montreal-Nord for Palestine, and Filipinos for Palestinian Liberation Montreal.
Boycott lists bring the added danger of putting a target on the businesses – Falafel Yoni was riddled with bullets in June 2024, though the store was closed at the time and no one was harmed.
Protests like those against Miznon and Goldie are frowned upon and even sometimes condemned, but they are seen as nothing more than protests, not part of a campaign, the asphyxiating grip of a global movement to cut off the circulation of customers and staff by scaring and discomforting them.
The graffiti and vandalization of Jewish-owned, kosher, and Israeli restaurants is constant, and though condemned, usually doesn’t warrant national coverage – After all, it is only one restaurant and not a synagogue. The broader damage and impact aren’t appreciated.
Miami’s Holy Bagels & Pizzeria facade and a US/Israel flag were spray-painted with the phrases “Free Palestine’ and “stop genocide” in June 2024, the fourth time that the Jewish owner’s shops had been targeted since the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, local 10 News reported.
Bagel Time Cafe had been vandalized in December and October 2023. Los Angeles’s Canter’s Deli was defaced in November 2023, according to the LA Times, a community mural showcasing Jewish contributions to the city was graffitied with the words “Free Gaza” and “Israel’s only religion is capitalism.”
“How many dead in the name of greed?” was reportedly scrawled.
In July, activists barged into Athens’s King David Burger, throwing flyers that read ““victory to the Palestinian resistance,” and spraying graffiti on the walls that read “no Zionist is safe here” and “Smash Zionism, fascism, colonialism.”
The businesses are also subject to violent attacks, such as March’s reported attempted arson against the Rimmon Kosher restaurant in central Madrid, when a man allegedly walked into the crowded business and doused the entrance with some sort of accelerant.
Restaurants as accessible targets for violence
Jewish-owned, kosher, and Israeli restaurants are loci of Israelis and Jews as much as community centers and synagogues, but are softer and more accessible targets for violence. Israeli educator Rami Glickstein was outside the Mr. Broadway kosher restaurant in Midtown Manhattan in October when he said a man gestured at his kippah and demanded to know his religion. The attacker allegedly grabbed the kippah from his head, threw it to the ground, spat on it, and then punched Glickstein to the ground.
In July, a pro-Palestinian activist approached Jewish women at a central London kosher cafe and asked if they were Jewish and if the restaurant was kosher. When the diners said yes, she screamed “free Palestine,” accused them of killing babies, throwing food at them, smashing their plates, and breaking their phones.
A Leipzig kosher café was attacked by a gang of youths on Wednesday, after a gang of youths was stopped from stealing an Israeli flag on display. The youths returned with six other children and teenagers, and threw full plastic bottles at an employee, who the police said sustained minor injuries to her leg.
The attack continued with the gang shouting racist and inflammatory remarks, and attempting to break into the cafe by striking a window with a display stand.
Some businesses cannot withstand the unyielding assault. Washington DC and Maryland falafel chain Shouk closed its stores in September, with DC for Palestine crediting a Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) “win.”
Tantura announced its closure last Tuesday, after being targeted by a campaign that alleged that it was named for the alleged 1948 Tantura massacre. In 2024, the walls and windows were graffitied with “Tantura is a massacre” and “Free Palestine,” allegedly by the group the Collective for the Liberation of Palestine (CLP).
The campaign against Jewish and Israeli cuisine is not isolated. According to an April Anti-Defamation League report, of 2596 protests with antisemitic actions in 2024, 252 occurred at businesses. The same yea,r there were 109 antisemitic incidents against Jewish-owned businesses, a 22 percent increase from 2023.
Campaigns against other religious, ethnic groups not tolerated
While there are isolated incidents like the vandalism of Palestinian business Habibiz Cafe in Winnipeg last Sunday, there is no other campaign that has been tolerated against private individuals because of their political beliefs, religion, or ethnic identity.
Russia has invaded Ukraine, and Turkey occupies northern Cyprus, but establishments associated with either have not endured an unending assault that has been justified and sanctioned by a vast network of organizations.
This campaign is tolerated because it is not identified as a campaign, and the tactics often stop shy of outright violence. Yet wars can be fought by many means, and they can be waged whether the opposing side recognizes them or not. The evident nature of these establishments means that they are on the frontline of Jewishness in a way that few other institutions are, and unless tactical responses such as cleaning graffiti are replaced by pursuing the marshalling organizations with legal hammer and tongs, these businesses will continue to take casualties.
Zvika Klein, Mathilda Heller, and Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Dr Paul Alexander
THE MAHA FLASH SALE HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ONE MORE DAY!
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL\
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/USA
A Paleoconservative Rips Apart Trump’s Venezuela Overthrow
Monday, Jan 12, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Terry Cowan via Substack
There is no way to put a pretty face on our most recent regime-change adventure. It is pig-ugly, and not defendable on any level, or from any angle or perspective. The reality of it all is plain to see. The Administration boldfacedly asks, as the old saying goes, Who are you going to believe; me or your lying eyes?. Only a political toad like, say, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, would respond that they needed more information to get the “full picture” before they could possibly comment on America’s action against the sovereign government of Venezuela.
I carry no water for the Chavez/Maduro regime. I am about as ambivalent towards the Venezuelan government as a person could be. This is for two reasons: 1) I am not a Cuban-American who, at least politically, are obsessesed with anything even tangentially connected to Castro’s Cuba, and 2) Maduro is their business, not ours-it is for them to sort out. The silly charge of narcoterrorism is the WMD of this generation.
At this point, it is not exactly clear what the Administration has accomplished. The Presidential couple has been surgically extracted from Caracas. The blockade is still in place, but then so is the Venezuelan government under Delcy Rodriquez, who is decidedly off-script. (I do find the tangential side-lining of the the ever-so-eager recent Nobel “Peace” Prize winner to be extremely satisfying. She has learned the hard way what many others before her have so learned. Her support in Venezuela is apparently so minimal that she does not even rise to the level of a useful puppet for Rubio.) I suppose that, in time, we will have a show trial in New York City for the Maduros, its outcome fore-ordained; the very thing we condemned the Soviets for back in the bad old days. But then, this should not be surprising in what I have heard called our “post-Constitutional” age.
I am fascinated by the logistics of this admittedly extraordinary and ruthlessly efficient covert attack. From what I can gather, these forces never engaged the Venezuelan army directly. Maduro relied on 22 Cuban bodyguards and a Security Detail, both operating outside of army channels. The U.S. had an army of covert CIA operatives and assets in Caracas, all trained in the fine art of engineering protests, demonstrations, color revolutions, and regime-change. These spooks were able to bribe his Security Detail. The commandos dropped in, while the Security Detail stood back as they killed the 22 Cubans and extracted the Maduros. The Russians were on the way, but arrived just after the completion of the mission. When they discovered who had been bribed to do this, it is my understanding that he was executed.
And there it is. No need to cue-up Lee Greenwood here. I recently read an accusation against someone as “being against everything this country stands for.” That is a loaded statement, to be sure. What does our country stand for anymore? One thing for certain is that we stand for is regime change. Dr. Lindsey O’Rourke’s Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War documents 70 such regime changes between 1947 and 1989 (excellent interview, here).
Dr. Jeffrey Sachs states that that number is now right at 100, which he characterizes as an addiction, overthrowing countries left and right when we wants something they have: Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, Syria in 2011-2025, Ukraine in 2014-present, etc.
As he often does, Dr. Sachs recently addressed the UN Security Council, commenting this time on the situation in Venezuela. A few points:
- The core of the UN Charter is Article 2 Section 4 which upholds the sovereignty of nations.
- The job of the Security Council is not to judge Maduro’s fitness as a leader, but to try to offer some protection to countries.
- Sachs then presented the Security Council was a brief outline of recent U.S./Venezuelan history, reminding them that the U.S. had been trying to topple the Chavez/Maduro regime since 2002.
- In 2007, a great tragedy befell Venezuela when it was discovered that they were sitting atop the largest oil reserves in the world.
- In 2014, a CIA/NGO color revolution was attempted.
- In 2015, Obama placed sanctions on Venezuela.
- In 2016, following orders, he declared the country to be a “threat to our national security.”
- In 2017, DJT wondered aloud to two Latin American Presidents why he could not just go in and capture Venezuela.
- He was informed of the danger in this, so he upped the sanctions to crush the Venezuelan oil industry. By 2020, production had fallen 75% and personal GDP had collapsed by 65% in Venezuela, according to the IMF.
- And then about the same time, his administration announced that the hitherto unknown Juan Guido was the real President of Venezuela. Many of our European vassal states went along meekly; in fact, you can hear echoes of that in Macron’s reaction now.
- He then asked the Security Council, “Do we have International Law, or do we have anarchy?”
The answer to the last question is pretty obvious. Threats have been made to six countries since the Venezuelan attack: Mexico, Columbia, Denmark, Nigeria, Cuba, and Iran. A great champion of the United Nations, Dr. Sachs claims that it is not dead, but it is on life-support. Any commitment for international law is certainly not coming from us. In fact, we are rushing back to the world of great power politics and spheres of influece, with all that that implies in terms of war and aggression. Dr. Sachs describes the situation as dire, given the nuclear age that we are all lulled into forgetting: being led by a “completely impulsive out of control ill-informed manipulable and manipulative individual atop the Deep State.“ Dr. Sachs has a fearless aspect to his commentary. May he survive for many years yet.
I was in South America when we attacked Venezuela. I saw coverage on the Asuncion news channels, and spoke briefly to a couple of Paraguayans about it. They shrugged in resignation, and basically said that when America wants something, what can you do? Perhaps someday someone will do something. But in the meantime, I dug a Spanish phrase out of my memory: lo siento.
* * *
Who can buy a government so cheap?
Change a cabinet without a squeak?
…Who can get a budget that’s so great?
Who will be the 51st state?
END
Behind The Utter Failure Of Russian Anti-Air Systems In Venezuela
Monday, Jan 12, 2026 – 10:10 PM
There are reports that during the Trump-ordered military raid on Venezuela to oust and capture President Nicolás Maduro, at least one US helicopter was hit by surface fire or possibly small missile, but the chopper managed to keep flying – with the pilot wounded – and the damaged aircraft made it back from the mission safely.
But this raised the question: what happened to Venezuela’s Russian-supplied anti-air defenses, including S-300 and Buk-M2 surface-to-air missile systems purchased in 2009?
While at this point it is well understood that the US military and CIA had help from inside the Venezuelan government – making it essentially a US-backed coup topped off with a special forces nab and grab against Maduro and his wife, there’s still the question of whether the entire Venezuelan armed forces were ordered to stand down, or else that their defense systems simply didn’t work or were inactive.
The New York Times says it was actually more the latter scenario – Russian-built air defense systems stationed in Venezuela were mostly inoperable and did not react to the major initial US strikes which paved the way for the ground operation in Caracas.
When American military aircraft entered Venezuelan airspace on Jan. 3, the missile systems were not even linked to radar, according to US officials privy to the mission to The New York Times.
The publication further explained the systems were not integrated with one another and may have actually been unusable for several years. Satellite imagery and photographs further suggest that critical elements of the air defense systems were being kept in storage rather than deployed.
Interestingly the Ukraine war has played a role, after early in the conflict US defense officials said they would support and supply the Zelensky government in order to ‘weaken’ Russia by bogging it down in a proxy war.
US officials explained to the Times that Venezuela (and presumably other Russian defense allies) has faced ongoing difficulties maintaining its Russian-made air defenses because of limited access to Russian technicians and spare parts – all of which have had to be diverted to support Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
Much of the initial US strikes appeared to focus on areas where Buk missile systems had been positioned or stored, and locations close to the capital.
“The Venezuelan armed forces were practically unprepared for the U.S. attack,” Yaser Trujillo, a military analyst in Venezuela, told The New York Times.
“Their troops were not dispersed, the detection radar was not activated, deployed or operational. It was a chain of errors that allowed the United States to operate with ease, facing a very low threat from the Venezuelan air defense system,” Trujillo added.
And a separate source concludes:
Venezuela’s much-touted antiaircraft systems were essentially not connected when U.S. forces entered the skies over Venezuela’s capital, and they may not have been working for years, former officials and analysts said.
“After years of corruption, poor logistics and sanctions, all those things would have certainly degraded the readiness of Venezuela’s air defense systems,” said Richard de la Torre, a former C.I.A. station chief in Venezuela who now runs Tower Strategy, a Washington-based lobbying firm.
The below OSINT account predicted this outcome back in mid-November:
The report throws open another interesting possibility, with two former US officials stating their view that Moscow may have permitted the systems it sold to Venezuela to fall into disrepair in order to avoid escalating tensions with Washington.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1652 DOWN 0.0014 PTS OR 14 BASIS POINTS/WITH STOCKS IN EUROPE ALL GREEN
USA/ YEN 158.914 UP 0.944 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3455 DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3880 UP 0.0005 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.53pts or 0.64%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 239.98PTS OR 0.90%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .30%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 239.99 TS OR 0.90%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 239.99 PTS or 0.64%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.30%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1609.27 PTS OR 3.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4601.50
silver:$86.77
USA DOLLAR VS TRY: 43.15
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 78.75OUBLE// UP 42 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.3870 UP 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30: 5.131 UP 3BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.402 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 2.938 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.69UP 7 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.109% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.166% UP 8 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.436 UP 8 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.251 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.446 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8141 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1665 DOWN 0.0003OR 3 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.91 UP 0.938 OR YEN IS DOWN 94 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3920 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND;5.125 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 1.3879
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP AT 6.9742 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.9706
TURKISH LIRA: 43.16 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +2.166 UP 8 FULL basis pts
THE 30 YR JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 3.436 UP 6 basis pts
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1in basis points from MONDAY at 4.178% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.831 DOWN 1 basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.535 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4631.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 88.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:TUES DAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 3.35 PTS OR 0.03%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 15.30 OR 0.06%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 11.56 PTS OR 0.14%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 13.30 PTS OR 0.08%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 207,10 PTS OR 0.45%
WTI Oil price 60.60 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 65.7010:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.70 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.4150 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.947 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1642 DOWN 0.0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3423 DOWN 0.0042 OR 42 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3950DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.137 UP 3 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.178 UP 4FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.501 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.10 UP 1.134OR YEN DOWN 113BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3884 UP 0.0023 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 23 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 61.10
Brent OIL: 65.39
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.180
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 PTS to 4.833%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.530 DOWN 0 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.409 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.937 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.96 UP 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.15 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.24DOWN 0 AND 3/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,584.20 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 86.603;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 398.21OR 0.80%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 24.07 PTS OR 0.10%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.98 UP 0.86PTS OR 5.69%
GLD: $ 421.63 DOWN 0.10 PTS OR 0.14%
SLV/ $78.60UP 1.37TS OR OR 1.77%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 4.34 PTS OR 0.152%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks & Bonds Shrug Off Trump’s Fed Feud; Gold & Crypto Jump
WRAP UP
US stocks closed in the red on Tuesday with the initial rally seen after the soft-leaning CPI faded – Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 05:02 PM
- US stocks closed in the red on Tuesday with the initial rally seen after the soft-leaning CPI faded.
- The downside in Financials was led by the big banks after JPM was hit post earnings, weighing on peers.
- T-notes bull steepened after the soft CPI report, but ultimately the report does little to change the Fed calculus
- Dollar Index saw gains on Tuesday and attempted to reclaim some of Monday’s weakness, despite seeing immediate weakness after the cooler-than-expected US CPI report.
- Crude saw gains as Iran/US rhetoric ramps up, with Trump suggesting Americans should evacuate Iran.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Australian House Approvals and Permits, Chinese Trade Balance. Supply from Australia and Japan.
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US TRADE
- US stocks closed in the red on Tuesday with the initial rally seen after the soft-leaning CPI faded. Downside was led by the Dow, while Russell and Equal Weight S&P were flattish with SPX and NDX closing lower by 0.2%. Sectors were more mixed with Energy and Defensives leading the gains, whilst Financials and Consumer Discretionary lagged.
- The downside in Financials was led by the big banks after JPM was hit post earnings, weighing on peers – hence Dow underperformance, too, and also not the best start to the Q4 ’25 earnings season. Meanwhile, the upside in Energy stocks largely tracked crude prices higher due to ongoing geopolitical concerns, mainly around Iran. President Trump has advised US citizens in Iran to “get out”, whilst also telling Iranian protestors that “help is on its way”.
- SPX -0.22% at 6,962, NDX -0.18% at 25,742, DJI -0.82% at 49,182, RUT -0.02% at 2,635.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump reiterated 10% credit card rate cap proposal for one year. On housing, Trump said more affordability plans are coming in weeks. Housing policy details to be shared at Davos. Praises impact of the USD 200bln mortgage bond buy. Lowering mortgage rates would be easier if the Fed were helping. Powell will be out soon.
- US President Trump reiterated he wants the market to go up on good news, not go down; said growth potential is unlimited, wants a Fed Chair who lowers rates when the market goes up, said current Fed kills every rally. Will drive oil prices even lower.
- US lawmakers reportedly move again to revive Trump-supported credit card competition bill (CCCA).
- WH official said US President Trump’s speech in Detroit will be about the economy, but there will likely be a mention of Iran.
- US President Trump said latest inflation numbers mean that Fed Chair Powell should cut rates meaningfully; if he doesn’t he will just continue to be “TOO LATE!”. Full post: Inflation numbers for the USA. That means that Jerome “Too Late” Powell should cut interest rates, MEANINGFULLY!!! If he doesn’t he will just continue to be, “TOO LATE!” ALSO OUT, GREAT GROWTH NUMBERS. Thank you MISTER TARIFF! President DJT.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump reiterates they will figure something out if they do not win the tariff case.
- US President Trump, on USMCA, said Canada wants it, but we don’t need it.
- China is reportedly to offer Canada canola relief in the scenario that Canada reduces EV tariffs.
- US exporters sell 168k tonnes of soybeans to China.
- US posts licence review rule for chip exports to China and Macau.
DATA RECAP
- US Supercore Inflation (Dec): 2.7% (prev. 2.7%).
- US Inflation M/M 3dp (Dec): Headline 0.307% (prev. 0.204%), Core 0.239% (prev. 0.159%).
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3%.
- US Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3%.
- US Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%).
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%).
- US Monthly Budget Statement (Dec) -145.0B vs. Exp. -150B (Prev. -173.0B, Rev. -173B).
- US New Home Sales MoM (Sep) M/M 3.8% vs. Exp. -13.8% (Prev. 20.5% ).
- US New Home Sales (Sep) 0.738M vs. Exp. 0.72M (Prev. 0.8M ).
- US Redbook YoY (Jan/10) Y/Y 5.7% (Prev. 7.1%).
- US Building Permits Prel (Oct) 1.411M vs. Exp. 1.412M (Prev. 1.415M ).
- US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 20th Dec) +11.75k (Prev. +11.5k, Rev. +11k).
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.75K (Prev. 11.5K ).
- US Building Permits MoM Prel (Oct) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 6.4% ).
- US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Dec) 99.5 vs. Exp. 99.5 (Prev. 99.0).
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
- Amazon (AMZN) pushes suppliers for cuts ahead of Supreme Court tariff ruling, FT reported.
- Netflix (NFLX) weighs amending Warner Bros. (WBD) bid to make it all cash, Bloomberg reported.
- FBN’s Gasparino posted on X that as far as Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is concerned Netflix (NFLX) is the winner, and for it to reopen Paramount (PSKY) need to pay more money (USD 2-4 on top of its USD 30 all cash).
- Trump Administration appears to have ended its US trade probe into pharmaceutical imports, according to End Point News. The Department of Commerce appears to have concluded its Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports, according to a new document reviewed by Endpoints News.
- Microsoft (MSFT) said its data centres won’t burden locals and pledges to pay its electricity bills and minimise water use, according to Axios.
- JPMorgan (JPM) Q4 2025 (USD) EPS 4.63 (exp. 4.97), Revenue 45.8bln (exp. 46.11bln). Results included USD 2.2bln credit reserve established for forward purchase of AAPL credit card portfolio. Credit loss provisions for credit losses USD 4.66bln. FICC revenue 5.38bln (exp. 5.27bln). IB Revenue 2.55bln (exp. 2.665bln). Equity sales and Trading 2.86bln (exp. 2.7bln). CEO COMMENTARY:. “The US economy has remained resilient. While labour markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy.”. “These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation and the Fed’s recent monetary policy. However, as usual, we remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards—including from complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices.”. GUIDANCE:. Affirms FY26 NII (ex-markets) USD 95bln (prev. 95bln). Sees 2026 NII about USD 103bln (exp. 100.38bln).
- JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon reiterates that he has great respect for Fed Chair Powell, adding that he believes in Fed’s independence.
- JPMorgan (JPM) CFO said consumers and small business remains resilient and they are not seeing deterioration in consumer credit. said US President Trump’s plan cap on interest rates on credit cards will be very bad for consumers.
- US Bancorp (USB) to acquire BTIG for USD 725mn.
- Cardinal Health (CAH) raises FY26 outlook; adj. EPS seen at least USD 10.00 (exp. 9.86, prev. 9.65-9.85). The company expects that its Specialty revenues will surpass USD 50bln in fiscal 2026, marking a 16% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over three years.
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.02 (exp. 1.91), Revenue 5.19bln (exp. 5.14bln).
- Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.53), Revenue 16.0bln (exp. 14.72bln). FY26 EPS 6.50-7.50 (exp. 7.22).
FX
- The Dollar Index saw gains on Tuesday and attempted to reclaim some of Monday’s weakness, despite seeing immediate weakness after the cooler-than-expected US CPI report.
- G10 FX was exclusively lower vs. the Greenback, albeit to varying degrees, as CAD, EUR, GBP saw the shallowest losses while Antipodeans and the Yen lagged.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes bull steepened after the soft CPI report, but ultimately the report does little to change the Fed calculus, with officials likely awaiting more reports and confirmation of inflation returning to target before cutting, unless there is a drastic downturn in the labour market.
- US sold USD 22bln of 30-year bonds; Stop through 0.8bps. High Yield: 4.825% (prev. 4.773%, six-auction avg. 4.759%): WI 4.833%. Tail: -0.8bps (prev. -0.1bps, six-auction avg. 0.5bps). Bid-to-Cover: 2.42x (prev. 2.36x, six-auction avg. 2.34x). Dealers: 11.9% (prev. 11.2%, six-auction avg. 12.4%). Directs: 21.3% (prev. 23.5%, six-auction avg. 23.9%). Indirects: 66.77% (prev. 65.4%, six-auction avg. 63.7%).
- US sold USD 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.585%, B/C 2.97x.
- Ireland Debt Agency to sell EUR-denominated 10yr bond via syndicate; seeking to raise around EUR 4bln from the issue.
- France is to create a new 20yr OAT, will be launched via syndication in the following days. Will be a 25th May 2046 OAT.
- Germany sold EUR 4.597bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: average yield 2.47%, b/c 1.41x, retention 23.38%.
- Italy sold EUR 4bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4bln 2.40% 2029 BTP: avg. yield 2.48%, b/c 1.45x.
- UK sold GBP 900mln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 4.81x (prev. 3.09x) & real yield –% (prev. 1.673%).
- Colombia announced plans to sell USD bonds.
COMMODITIES
- The crude complex saw gains as Iran/US rhetoric ramps up, with Trump suggesting Americans should evacuate Iran.
- Metals were mixed with gold prices lower, albeit silver held onto gains as volatility continues.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said US would happily partner with Iran on oil if regime ends.
- President Trump said he would like the price of oil USD 53/bbl, via Fox’s Ed Lawrence.
- Venezuela reportedly starts reversing oil output cuts as exports resume, according to reports.
- JPMorgan (JPM) and Citi (C) reportedly in talks to finance USD 1bln Argentina gas pipeline.
- EIA STEO: World Oil Demand 2026: 104.8mln bpd (prev. 105.2mln bpd); 2027: 106.1mln bpd. World Oil Production. 2026: 107.7mln bpd (prev. 107.4mln bpd). 2027: 108.2mln bpd. World Oil Demand. 2026: 104.8mln bpd (prev. 105.2mln bpd).
- Third oil supertanker about to depart from Venezuela, to carry crude to Caribbean storage, via shipping data.
- Kazakhstan confirms there was a temporary decline in oil shipments through the marine terminal in December via CPC due to drone attacks.
- Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy confirms tankers targeted by drone attacks were not carrying Kazakh oil, with no damage to the country’s energy resources.
- Chevron (CVX) confirms awareness of incidents involving vessels bound for Caspian loading facilities, including one Chevron-chartered tanker; all crew members safe, vessel remains stable and heading to a safe port and no impact reported on TCO ops.
- CME Group to launch 100 ounce of silver futures on 9th February.
- Venezuela’s PDVSA begins ordering well reopenings to recover crude output, according to sources; readies internal audit following cyberattack and in preparation of new business and investments.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) CEO said co. will start production at the Eirin field this quarter.
- Norway Energy Minister said Aker BP (AKRBP NO) gets stakes in 22 permits, and Equinor (EQNR NO) in 35 permits.
- TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO said on Venezuela, we were there but were obliged to leave, we are always evaluating options; if you’re talking about adding 1mln barrels per day, it will cost USD 100bln.
- Commerzbank maintains year-end nickel price forecast of USD 16k per tonne.
- Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister announces oil loadings at CPC Black Sea Terminal are proceeding, via SPM-1.
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed Chair Powell reportedly sent senators details on USD 2.5bln Fed project following testimony, FT reported.
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said he expects the economy to grow at or above potential in 2026.
- Senate Republican leader Thune said he hasn’t seen the charges filed or brought upon Fed Chair Powell yet. Does not expect a Government shutdown.
- US President Trump said we have a bad Fed Chair; Fed Chair pick in the next few weeks.
- WSJ’s Timiraos said “US CPI report isn’t likely to change the Fed’s wait-and-see posture, as officials will likely want to see more evidence that inflation is levelling off and then declining before cutting rates”. “To resume rate cuts, Fed officials are likely to need to see either new evidence that job-market conditions are weakening or that price pressures are fading. It could take at least a couple more months of inflation reported for the latter to materialise.”.
- Global central bankers issue a statement in support of Fed Chair Powell; incl. the BoE and ECB.
- RBI Governor said policy on INR is consistent and aim is to curb excessive volatility.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump when asked about help on the way to Iran, said you are going to find out; good idea if Americans evacuate from Iran.
- US President Trump said the US will take very strong action if Iran hangs protestors, CBS News reported; adds the endgame is to win.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said US would happily partner with Iran on oil if regime ends.
- Iran Defense Minister said they will respond to any US aggression.
- Canadian government urges its citizens to “leave Iran now”.
- US President Trump’s envoy secretly met Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, to discuss the Iran protests; Pahlavi is trying to position himself to step in as a “transitional” leader if the regime falls, via Axios.
- Heads of Trump’s National Security Council reportedly held talks today on topic of Iran, Trump did not participate, according to Axios.
- WH official said US President Trump’s speech in Detroit will be about the economy, but there will likely be a mention of Iran.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister said they condemn subversive and external interference in the internal political process of Iran.
- EU’s Von Der Leyen said further sanctions against Iran will be swiftly proposed.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- G7 allies intend to meet with US President Trump at Davos regarding Ukraine, FT reported citing sources.
OTHERS
- Greenland mineral resources minister hopes for more clarity on US stance on Greenland from meeting with the US on Wednesday. Have no intention of becoming American, but want to work with America. Ban on uranium stands, the people of Greenland have spoken on this. Do not detect a threat from China and Russia, but no problem increasing its monitoring, is working together with the US for a peaceful solution.
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Canada’s Trade Minister said they will be formally launching negotiations with India and the UAE in the near-term.
- World Bank Forecasts: China 2026 upgraded; 2026 global growth seen lower Y/Y amid tariffs impacting trade.
NOTABLE GLOBAL EQUITY HEADLINES
- Saks Global reportedly nears a USD 1.75bln financing deal led by Pentwater and BraceBridge ahead of its imminent bankruptcy, according to reports.
- Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) CEO expects some headwinds in international operations in 2026 – JPM conference. Loss of exclusivity in several markets in 2026 could result in Co. having a difficult year.
- The Chinese government this week told some tech companies it would only approve their purchases of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 AI chips under special circumstances, such as for university research and development labs, according to The Information.
- US FDA found no increased risk of suicidal behaviour or ideation linked to GLP-1s (LLY, NOVOB DC), according to Bloomberg; has asked companies to remove warnings about potential risk from the medicines’ labels.
- Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) announces plans to expand support for PayPal (PYPL) in aims to strengthen global payment capabilities.
USA DATA RELEASES
Core CPI Prints Cooler Than Expected In December, Near 5 Year Lows
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 08:39 AM
On the heels of ‘solid’ labor market data from BLS (lower unemployment), ADP (weekly employment change remaining positive), and a rebound in Small Business Optimism; this morning we get a glimpse of the other side of The Fed’s mandate as the last CPI print for 2025 prints. From what we can tell, President Trump did not drop any hints this time ahead of the release which was expected to be flat from November’s prints.
The headline CPI print rose 0.3% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp) driving prices up 2.7% on a YoY basis (vs +2.7% YoY exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
Many expected a December pickup due to the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November.
Under the hood, Goods inflation was unch while Services and Food led the price increases…
Source: Bloomberg
The more stable (and most watched) Core CPI was expected to rise from +2.6% YoY to +2.7% YoY but was surprisingly cooler up just 0.2% MoM and steady at +2.6% YoY – the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Goods saw deflation on a MoM basis while Services prices accelerated a little…
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed’s ‘old favorite’ inflation signal – SupreCore (Services Ex-Shelter) – slowed once again on a YoY basis, now at its slowest since Sept 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Recreation Services saw a significant jump on a MoM basis while Education Services saw notable deflation MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
And if you want someone to blame for higher prices – it’s your Recreational time…
Source: Bloomberg
…with a record increase in Movie & Sports Admission costs… World Cup & UFC?
Source: Bloomberg
This is clearly a more convincing sign that inflation is on a downward path after November’s shutdown-distorted data.
According to JPM’s Market Intel team, this is the market reaction matrix, and probability:
- Core MoM prints above 0.45%. SPX loses 1.25% – 2.5%: Probability 5.0%
- Core MoM prints between 0.40% – 0.45%. SPX gains 0.25% to loses 75bps: Probability 32.5%
- Core MoM prints between 0.35% – 0.40%. SPX gains 0.25% to 0.75%: Probability 40.0%
- Core MoM prints between 0.30% – 0.35%. SPX gains 1% – 1.5%: Probability 20.0%
- Core MoM prints below 0.30%. SPX gains 1.25% – 1.75%: Probability 2.5%
Finally, for now, we seem to be avoiding a 1970s redux in Fed policy error helping to re-ignite an inflationary rebound…
Source: Bloomberg
…but time will tell.
END
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Bessent Reveals 10% Of US Budget Lost To Fraud, Signaling Musk Has Unfinished DOGE Business
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s interview with journalist Christopher Rufo suggests that Elon Musk still has unfinished business at DOGE, as fraud, waste, and abuse from Somali networks in Minnesota, California Democrats, and other deep-blue states have dominated the news cycle for the last several weeks.
Bessent told Rufo that somewhere between 5% to 10% of the total federal budget is siphoned off by fraud and abuse each year, citing data from the Government Accountability Office.
“So it’s about 10% of the federal budget, 1 to 2% of GDP. And if we can narrow that number, President Trump asked for a $500 billion increase in the defense budget to fortify, you know, 10 to 20 years of neglect, and forever wars that we’ve been involved in that he’s determined not to get us into. We need to flex up our military budget, if we can get rid of this waste, fraud, and abuse, we can finance a safer, sounder US with with that with without taking on more debt. Sounds pretty good outcome to me,” Bessent said.
Rufo asked Bessent about DOGE. Bessent responded, “Uh, yeah, and Chris, to be clear, I was in 100% alignment with Elon on the waste, fraud, and abuse. It was just, you know, the Silicon Valley motto is move fast and break things. I said my personal motto and the Treasury motto is move deliberately and fix things. And that’s what you’re going to see in our investigations. You’re not going to see headlines tomorrow. You’re not going to see them next week, but in a month or quarter, once we get people in the bear trap, they’re not getting out because we will have conclusive evidence to present. And I think that they will have to, uh, make plea deals that they will be willing to negotiate to turn in higher-ups to help us map out how this happened. And again, we’re going to take this Minnesota map to the other 49 states.”
Bessent and Rufo also discussed ongoing investigations into dark-money-funded NGOs…
“And again, what we do is follow the money—just like we followed it with the mafia, just like we follow it. We’ll find out who’s done this. I announced today that we are going to put in effect a whistleblower program. And my sense is that the rats will turn on each other,” Bessent said.
Elon Musk played a major role in DOGE in early 2025 before stepping away in that spring, but the recent steady flow of fraud, waste, and abuse news suggests his work there is far from finished.
The question is whether Musk returns to DOGE. He did pour cold water on the idea during Katie Miller’s podcast, saying the chances of going back were zero. But with Americans outraged over Somali fraud, it is still possible Musk could feel compelled to finish the job he started.
END
Trump Admin Ends Temporary Protection For Somalis In US
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 01:45 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Trump administration has decided to end temporary protection for Somali nationals in the United States, officials said on Jan. 13.
“Temporary means temporary,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem told The Epoch Times via email.
“Country conditions in Somalia have improved to the point that it no longer meets the law’s requirement for Temporary Protected Status. Further, allowing Somali nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is contrary to our national interests. We are putting Americans first.”
There are 2,471 Somali nationals in the United States under the status, also known as TPS. Another 1,383 are in the country with pending TPS applications.
TPS is authorized by federal law for people from countries with conditions such as civil war that prevent the citizens from returning there safely. TPS for Somalia has been in place since 1991.
The Biden administration in 2024 extended TPS for Somali nationals until March 17, 2026. Department of Homeland Security officials at the time cited “the ongoing armed conflict and extraordinary and temporary conditions.”
“Somalia continues to experience widespread insecurity due to armed conflict involving state and non-state actors,” they wrote.
“The ongoing conflict, as well as other violence, has exposed civilian populations to ill-treatment, abuse, and displacement. Additionally, Somalia recently experienced intense flooding that damaged land and infrastructure, impeded efforts to address food insecurity, and exacerbated disease outbreaks. Significant barriers to the delivery of humanitarian aid persist.”
Noem previously terminated TPS status for nationals of multiple countries.
Federal judges have blocked some of those terminations, finding that they were arbitrary and capricious in violation of federal statute. The administration is appealing those decisions.
The ending of TPS for Somalis is the latest action by the administration in the wake of alleged fraud linked to Somali nationals.
On Jan. 7, for example, officials suspended assistance for the Somali government.
Billions of dollars were “stolen by really bad and deranged people,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Jan. 13. He was defending how federal officers have been conducting immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota, which hosts a sizeable Somali population.
“For years, these corrupt, activist politicians have refused to protect Minnesotans and are now proposing illegal actions to keep their stranglehold on control and continue stealing from American citizens,” Noem said on X this week.
“We will root out this rampant fraud, we will arrest the criminal illegal aliens hurting Americans with impunity, and we will hold those who aid and abetted this criminality accountable.
END
FINALLY THIS IS GOOD!!
USA/CHINA
Fentanyl Deaths Fall As Evidence Points To China Crackdown Trump Long Advocated
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 05:40 PM
A sharp decline in U.S. overdose deaths appears increasingly tied to a disruption in the global fentanyl supply chain – an outcome that new research suggests may stem in part from intensified pressure on Chinese chemical suppliers.
The findings, published Thursday in Science, enter a long-running debate over what finally reversed a drug crisis that pushed annual overdose deaths above 100,000 during the Biden administration. Fatalities began falling in mid-2023 and dropped more sharply thereafter, a trend that has continued under Donald Trump, who has long-framed fentanyl trafficking as a national-security threat and used tariffs, border enforcement and overseas interdictions as leverage.
While public-health officials have pointed to billions spent on addiction treatment, naloxone distribution and domestic law enforcement, the research places renewed emphasis on a crackdown by Beijing – specifically, efforts to prevent fentanyl from being manufactured at all.
The paper concludes that the illicit fentanyl market experienced a significant supply contraction, “possibly tied to Chinese government actions,” citing falling purity in seized drugs, reduced seizure volumes and online reports of shortages. The findings align with arguments long advanced by Trump and his advisers: that pressuring China’s chemical sector was central to choking off supply.
“This demonstrates how influential China can be and how much they can help us – or hurt us,” said Keith Humphreys, a co-author of the study and a former White House drug policy adviser under President Barack Obama.
U.S. law-enforcement agencies have for years scrutinized China’s role as a key supplier of precursor chemicals used by Mexican criminal organizations to synthesize fentanyl. During Trump’s first term, Beijing agreed to classify fentanyl-related substances, though traffickers adapted by shifting to precursor chemicals instead.
Since 2023, however, Chinese authorities have shut down some chemical suppliers and tightened oversight. The Drug Enforcement Administration, in its latest annual drug intelligence report, said China-based suppliers are increasingly wary of selling internationally – evidence, the agency said, that enforcement pressure is having an effect.
According to the CDC, estimated U.S. drug deaths fell in 2024 to about 81,700, with roughly 49,200 involving synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. While 2025 data are not yet available, researchers believe the downward trend is continuing.
The timing remains contested. Formal U.S. – China cooperation was announced ahead of a November 2023 summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, months after overdose deaths had already begun to fall. Researchers acknowledge the mismatch but suggest Chinese enforcement may have begun quietly before the agreement was made public.
Some analysts remain skeptical. Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution noted that U.S.–China relations were strained at the time, making unpublicized cooperation less likely.
Still, multiple indicators point in the same direction. The study found fentanyl purity in DEA seizures declined alongside falling deaths, while online forums such as Reddit showed a surge in reports of fentanyl shortages beginning in mid-2023. Canada, which relies on similar precursor supply chains but employs very different domestic drug policies, saw a parallel decline in deaths.
“What’s really striking is that parallel across the two countries, even though the two countries have very different domestic policies,” said Jonathan P. Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon University.
China’s government says its enforcement campaign has produced “remarkable results,” citing hundreds of company closures and the removal of large volumes of chemical advertisements. The White House has credited Trump’s border enforcement, trade pressure and overseas interdictions with reducing the flow of fentanyl precursors.
Taken together, the evidence suggests that pressure on upstream chemical suppliers – an approach Trump emphasized long before it gained broader acceptance – played a larger role in the fentanyl decline than many policymakers once assumed.
END
92% Of Employed Americans Have Cut Back On Spending As The Standard Of Living In The US Crumbles
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 05:15 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
The headline of this article is not a misprint. The reason why “affordability” has become the number one issue for U.S. voters is because most of the population is being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living.
Just look at how much you are paying for electricity compared to five years ago. And just look at how much you are paying for food compared to five years ago. Housing costs have risen to absurd heights, property taxes have become absolutely insane in many areas of the country, and health insurance premiums have more than doubled for millions of Americans. It isn’t just a coincidence that so many people are bitterly complaining about the cost of living these days. The truth is that most of the country is experiencing very real pain.
Of course it isn’t an accident that this has happened. Our politicians have borrowed and spent 28 trillion dollars that we did not have since Barack Obama first entered the White House in January 2009, and I warned that all of this money would create rampant inflation.
On top of that, the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars that were created out of thin air into the financial system since 2008. That has helped the stock market hit record highs, but it has been one of the factors that has made the cost of living unbearable for the rest of us.
The very foolish decisions that our leaders have been making have had dramatic consequences.
Our standard of living is crumbling right in front of our eyes, and now a brand new report is telling us that 92 percent of employed Americans have been forced to cut back on spending…
For millions of Americans, staying financially afloat now means difficult trade-offs. As the price of everyday necessities continues to rise faster than wages, new data shows workers are cutting back wherever they can – often at the expense of savings, overall financial security and even essential needs.
That is the picture emerging from Resume Now’s 2026 Cost-of-Living Crunch Report, a national survey of 1,011 employed Americans, which has found that only 17 percent of Americans feel financially secure enough to cover essentials and save money. Nearly two-thirds of respondents cited everyday essentials as their biggest financial burden. What’s more, a remarkable 92 percent said they have cut back on spending, including on items many would previously have considered non-negotiable.
Please notice that only “employed Americans” were asked about the cost of living.
More than 100 million U.S. adults are not working at all.
For those that do not regularly follow my work, yes that is an accurate number. The vast majority of U.S. adults that are not working are considered to be “not in the labor force” by the federal government.
Another survey that was conducted at the end of December found that 70 percent of Americans consider the cost of living where they live to be “not very affordable” or “not affordable at all”…
American consumers aren’t feeling great about the economy or their own financial situation, with the phrase “affordability crisis” dominating headlines and political campaigns over the last few months.
The majority — 70% — of Americans surveyed in a Marist poll of over 1,400 adults taken in December, say that the cost of living in their area is not very affordable, or not affordable at all, for the average family.
This is the result of decades of incredibly bad economic policy.
The purchasing power of our money has been steadily declining, and now 65 percent of employed Americans are struggling to even afford everyday essentials…
Sixty-five percent of the survey respondents said that affording everyday essentials was a top contributor to their financial strain.
Jared Kessler, founder of Forex Broker, said the concentration of stress around essentials is a key indicator that the problem runs deeper than any short-term financial shocks. “It is clear, based on this data, that we are experiencing a real cost-of-living crisis as opposed to an immediate inflationary response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” he told Newsweek.
Read that last sentence again, because it is so true.
We are in the midst of a nightmarish cost of living crisis that never seems to end.
At this stage, 60 percent of employed Americans “could only cover three months or less of expenses if they were to lose their job”…
Sixty percent of respondents said they could only cover three months or less of expenses if they were to lose their job, leaving little room for error in the event of layoffs, illness or other events that could impact their financial standing. For many, even routine expenses are being trimmed.
Most of the country is living right on the edge.
Nobody can deny this.
And consumer sentiment rapidly moved in the wrong direction in 2025…
Between January and November last year, consumer sentiment among the lowest and middle terciles of American household income fell 29.8% and 27.6%, respectively, while the country’s highest third of earners suffered a steeper 32.1% decline.
Our politicians in Washington shouldn’t have been borrowing and spending so much money all these years.
But they did.
And we should have never allowed ourselves to go 38.4 trillion dollars in debt.
But we did.
Many of us ranted about the bad decisions that were being made for years.
But most of the population didn’t listen.
Sadly, as I pointed out in a previous article, we have now reached a point where “affordability” has become the number one issue for U.S. voters…
A University of Michigan poll published in December shows that high prices remain a pain point for consumers. About 46% blame high prices for poor personal finances — among the highest shares since the series started in the late 1970s.
Consumers’ views of their current financial situation in December “collapsed” into negative territory for the first time since July 2022, the month after pandemic-era inflation had peaked, according to a poll published Tuesday by the Conference Board.
Overall, 65% of U.S. households say the cost of living has gotten worse or much worse in the past year, according to a recent Politico poll.
Previous generations handed us the keys to the greatest economic machine that the world had never seen.
And we went out and wrecked it.
50 years ago, the U.S. economy was so dominant that it would have taken stupidity on an epic scale to cause it to fail.
But somehow we managed to do it.
Even though our standard of living is in the process of collapsing all around us, most Americans are still working hard and are “effectively trying to muscle through this”…
“What we’re seeing is there is still inflation pressure across the system, particularly in the retail environment, and consumers, through our research tell us that they are effectively trying to muscle through this,” Will Auchincloss, Americas retail sector leader at EY-Parthenon, says. “They’re trying to buy what they’ve always bought or want to buy, but in the face of higher prices.”
Most of us want to continue to live the way we did before, but we simply do not have enough money to do it.
So U.S. households are piling up tremendous amounts of debt.
In fact, U.S. household debt recently hit an all-time record high of 18.59 trillion dollars…
Americans’ household debt levels – including mortgages, car loans, credit cards and student loans – are now at a new record high, according to data released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Total household debt reached $18.59 trillion from July through September of this year, up by $197 billion from the previous quarter.
Of course the federal government is an even bigger offender.
The U.S. government is now 38.4 trillion dollars in debt, and it is being projected that number will be well above 40 trillion dollars before the end of this year.
For more than a decade I warned about what would happen if we kept going down this road, and now it has happened.
We are literally committing societal suicide.
The next time you feel like screaming while you are paying your bills, you might want to remember who got us into this mess in the first place.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
END
KING NEWS
| he King Report January 13, 2026 Issue 7658 | Independent View of the News |
| Gold and silver soared to record highs on Team Trump’s prosecution of Jerome Powell. Traders were already jiggy for gold and silver due to the Fed’s T-Bill QE and Trump’s MBS QE. Silver analysts warn that there could be issues (systemic problems?) when the March contract settles. The Last Trade Day for March Silver is March 27, Last Delivery Day is March 31. According to CME registrations, there are about 440m ounces of silver in registered depositories. https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmegroup.com%2Fdelivery_reports%2FSilver_stocks.xls&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK Silver aggregate open interest is 150,200; each contract is 5k ounces. This represents 751k ounces. March open interest is 101,490 contracts. What we do NOT know is the open interest and short positions in OTC (non-exchange) contracts. PS – After the minor scrutiny into non-listed derivatives that caused the Financial Crisis of 2008, surviving big banks jettisoned the ‘OTC derivative’ language for ‘structured products’ designation to avoid the stigma of using OTC derivatives. Treasury Secretary Bessent told Trump that investigation of Fed chair creates a “mess” A perturbed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told President Trump late Sunday that the federal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair “made a mess” and could be bad for financial markets, two sources familiar with the call told Axios… Sunday night, Trump appeared to distance himself from the investigation of Fed chair Jerome Powell for allegedly misrepresenting the costs of renovations to the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in D.C… Senior administration officials told Axios they believe the idea for the criminal investigation was launched partly at the urging of Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who denied that to Bloomberg Television early Monday… https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/bessent-trump-investigation-powell-federal-reserve @colbyLsmith: “I don’t know anything about it,” Trump tells @NBCNews about the Justice Department’s investigation into Fed chair Powell. He said it had nothing to do with interest rates: “I wouldn’t even think of doing it that way. What should pressure him is the fact that rates are far too high. That’s the only pressure he’s got,” Trump said… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-denies-involvement-doj-fed-subpoena-jerome-powell-rcna253526 Senate Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) warned that the allegations against Powell to warrant a DOJ probe “better be real and they better be serious.” @julie_kelly2: Jay Powell testimony: “There are not rooftop terrace gardens.” Taj Fed renovation plan: “Both roof terraces will be accessible and will seek to create usable outdoor space for building users.” https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/2010771831658107044 Jay Powell testimony: “There’s no new water features.” Taj Fed renovation plans: “East Terrace Garden Water Feature Section.” The larger question aside from his misrepresentations and indignation during his June 2025 testimony–what and/or who is he covering up for? Reportedly investigators are looking at building invoices due to the huge cost overruns. GOP @RepLuna: In July 2025, I formally referred Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Department of Justice for potential perjury and false statements to Congress and senior administration officials. I laid out, in detail, how Jerome Powell lied under oath to Congress and misrepresented facts in official communications to senior administration officials, including OMB Director Russell Vought. @IranIntl_En: “The leaders of Iran called yesterday to negotiate. I think they’re tired of being beat up by the US. We may meet with them. A meeting is being set up. But we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting,” Trump said. Google jumped to a $4 trillion market cap on reports that Apple would use Gemini for its Siri AI upgrade. Reports now say the SCOTUS will issue its Trump Tariff ruling on Wednesday. ESHs opened modestly higher on Sunday night on the usual buying for the Monday Rally. They quickly sank on the Powell prosecution news. After hitting a daily low of 6950.00 (-55.00) at 3:41 ET, ESHs commenced a plodding but modest rally that went vertical 3 minutes before the NYSE opening. ESHs jumped to 7001.75 at 9:59 ET. After a modest retreat to 699300 at 10:34 ET. ESHs then rallied to a daily high of 7025.25 at 15:00 ET. ESHs did an A-B-C decline to 7015.50 at 16:00 ET. There is too much juice (Trump MBS and T-Bill QE) to NOT be fully invested in something. Bloomberg probably depicts the main cause of unrest in America. US workers received 53.8% of GDP in 3rd quarter, the lowest share since records began in 1947 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/labor-s-share-of-us-gdp-drops-to-record-low-in-data-back-to-1947/ar-AA1TUl4H Trump appears to blank on $2K tariff checks he promised Americans: ‘When did I do that?’ https://trib.al/QakjPMm Mexico’s Sheinbaum says US military intervention ruled out after talks with Trump http://reut.rs/4qTrsPW @Polymarket: Trump says Denmark’s military force to defend Greenland consists of “two dog sleds” https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2010809150096490701 Paramount escalates hostile bid for Warner Bros/Discovery with proxy fight, lawsuit https://trib.al/nQBICbi Positive aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index hit a record high. Fangs and the DJIA rallied modestly. Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals soared to record highs; Spot Silver hit 86.25 (+7.7%); Physical AU hit 4630.21. The DJIA and DJITA were down modestly to moderately until the afternoon. USHs were -4/32 at the NYSE close. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will the Team Trump prosecution of Powell proceed and what are the consequences? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6965.91 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6986.33; 6934.07 Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Any Country That Trades with Iran – BBG 16:39 ET @JavierBlas: Top trade partners to Iran include China (34%), Iraq, UAE, Turkey, and India. Just after 17:00 ET, the US told Americans to “leave Iran now… If you cannot leave, find a secure location… Have a supply of food, water, and medications, and other essential items… Avoid demonstrations, keep a low profile…” (Reports have DJT reviewing military strikes on Monday night!) https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2010838349976658071/photo/1 @ariel_oseran: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council chief Ali Larijani was asked about Trump’s threats and replied. The overwhelming presence of Iranians in the streets shows that our people are ready to settle the scores with America and Israel.” Trump: “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will. THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE… WSJ: Trump Has Complained About Pam Bondi Repeatedly to Aides The president has privately criticized his attorney general as weak and ineffective in recent weeks Today – There is so much juice and bullishness in the system that most players want to be long stocks and/or commodities. This is why stocks and ESHs routinely rebounded sharply from all negative news. Astute traders see this and play according. This means dips and breakouts are aggressively bought. ESHs are -14.50; NQHs are -86.50; Feb AU is -28.40; and USHs are +4/32 at 20:35 ET. Expected Economic Data: Dec CPI and Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Dec NFIB Small Biz Optimism 99.5; St. Louis Fed Prez Musalem 10 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 16:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6820; 100-day MA: 6721; 150-day MA: 6563; 200-day MA: 6330 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,824; 100-day MA: 46,973; 150-day MA: 45,975; 200-day MA: 44,755 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6977.27 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5896.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6420.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6887.15 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6960.91 triggers a sell signal @DavidPollackUSA: Everything you’re seeing in Minnesota, New York, and LA has nothing to do with ICE. That’s just what the signs say. Remember: signs said Free Palestine, a couple months ago they said Black Lives Matter before that. These are people being organized to hurt our country. This is psychological warfare. This does not reflect the tens of millions who support ICE removing criminal aliens before they can kill more Americans. The protestors and their funders, both foreign and domestic, descent on blue cities and states because the mayors and governors will NOT arrest and/or prosecute them. @Rightanglenews: This man is going viral after revealing that the last woman shot by Minneapolis police was a white woman named Justine Damond, who was killed by a Somali officer after she called for help, and not a single Democrat spoke out or protested. https://t.co/8C8DJYg7ES Arctic Frost probe driven early on by anti-Trump FBI agent, claims by liberal outlets, memos show Special Agent Timothy Thibault, who left his role as the assistant agent in charge of its Washington field office in August 2022 after his anti-Trump social posts became public, organized the initial electronic communication that authorized the start of the Arctic Frost probe. He also circulated by email clippings from such anti-Trump outlets as Just Security, NPR, and The Washington Post, pushing for a criminal probe of Trump related to the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, the memos show. When Thibault’s colleagues originally drafted the investigation’s launch document to focus on the Trump campaign and affiliated and still unknown subjects, “Add DJT” was scribbled onto the draft memo. Emails indicate Thibault was pushing to add Trump to the investigative launch document… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/anti-trump-fbi-agent-and-liberal-outlet-claims-heart-controversial-arctic The NY Times published a highly misleading headline about racial preferences to disparage Trump after he stupidly agreed to an interview that was used to harm him. What DJT said was NOT nearly as inflammatory and alarming as the headline depicted. Trump Says Civil Rights Led to White People Being ‘Very Badly Treated’ – NYT interview “White people were very badly treated, where they did extremely well and they were not invited to go into a university to college,” he said, an apparent reference to affirmative action in college admissions. “So I would say in that way, I think it was unfair in certain cases.” He added: “I think it was also, at the same time, it accomplished some very wonderful things, but it also hurt a lot of people — people that deserve to go to a college or deserve to get a job were unable to get a job. So it was, it was a reverse discrimination.” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/us/politics/trump-interview-white-people-discrimination.html We said it before and will reiterate it now. Trump apparently has an insatiable desire to convert those in the media that detest him. So, he keeps taking interviews with ‘them;’ and ‘they’ keep kicking DJT in… Babylon Bee: Democrats Fear Iranian Love of Freedom Could Spread to America https://buff.ly/i7AHDHG Ex-CIA ‘spy who lied’ wants Trump to expose ‘horrific’ Biden Havana Syndrome ‘cover-up’ Marc Polymeropoulos, a 26-year CIA veteran and ex–senior operations chief who signed the infamous “spies who lie” letter about Hunter Biden’s laptop during the 2020 election campaign, told The Post that the 46th president perpetrated one of the worst intelligence scandals of modern times… The Biden administration publicly denied the existence of Havana Syndrome — believed by non-government scientists to have been caused by powerful directed-energy weapons wielded by foreign adversaries such as Russia and Cuba — despite their own intelligence personnel suffering from “unbearable pain,” Polymeropoulos said… https://trib.al/g1ReUSm Numerous pundits opine that Minnesota Dems are trying to turn Renee Good into a George Floyd to ignite violence and riots – because Dems believe that cost Trump the 2020 Election. No, it was his botched handling of Covid (shutdowns and vaxxes) and massive vote fraud. Plus, Good is white; blacks won’t subject themselves to being used by Dems. Minnesota and Illinois AGs have sued to prevent ICE from operating in their states. This is more performative theatrics to excite and inflame Dems’ whacko leftist base. @CWBChicago: He randomly attacked a man with a pipe in the Loop. The victim suffered facial fractures, lost teeth, and required multiple reconstructive surgeries. It was his 57th arrest. But his plea deal will not require him to spend a single day in prison… Judge Joanne Rosado sentenced him to four years in prison. However, after receiving credit for 752 days he spent in jail and the standard 50% sentence reduction, Thorne will not spend any time in prison. https://cwbchicago.com/2026/01/man-with-57-arrests-pleads-guilty-in-random-loop-pipe-attack-will-not-go-to-prison.html @EndWokeness: Building manager arrested for voting MULTIPLE times in 2024 by filling ballots… “for former tenants.” These fraudulent mail-ins COUNTED. Her name: Esperanza Contreras. https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2010722341433860557 @TRobinsonNewEra: Dem Rep. Sarah Stalker (KY): “I have guilt every day for being white…and kids should too! These people are insane. https://x.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/2010748280854954301 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
New Documents Detail Jack Smith’s $20K Bribe To Informant
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jan 12, 2026 – 09:00 PM
In 2023, then-Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office approved a shady $20,000 payment to a confidential human source for information in the controversial FBI probe, code-named Arctic Frost, which investigated efforts by President Donald Trump and his supporters to challenge the 2020 election results, according to documents FBI Director Kash Patel turned over to Congress this week.
The documents outline the scope and methods of the investigation. An email shows that prosecutorial approval was communicated by Counselor to the Special Counsel, Raymond Hulser, on June 2, 2023.
The memo states the payment “was discussed by Raymond Hulser and Assistant Special Counsel Julia Gegenheimer with Special Counsel Jack Smith.” An FBI agent reached out to Smith’s office that same day, writing: “As discussed, request your office’s concurrence in our proposed payment of $20,000 for CHS’ provision of information in support of the investigation.” Hulser’s response was brief: “Concur, thank you.”
Patel told Just the News that the revelation of the shady payment is the latest proof that the Arctic Frost investigation was an “egregious abuse of power and violation of the law.”
The records show the FBI went all-in trying to make Trump himself a “subject” of the Arctic Frost probe, though that plan was ultimately shot down. The documents also reveal the bureau leaned heavily on liberal media reporting to build its case.
The number of people in Trump’s orbit that were targeted by the investigation is also staggering. Phone data analysis extended to nine Trump allies in Congress, plus his lawyers and outside advisers. TV host Steve Bannon made an FBI list of at least 16 Trump associates whose long-distance phone records underwent scrutiny. Bill Stepien, Sidney Powell, Jenna Ellis, Cleta Mitchell, and the late former NYPD Commissioner Bernie Kerik also appeared on that list. Kerik had led a team of investigators focused on alleged irregularities in the 2020 election.
One memo shows the FBI analyzed calls from “more than 50 White House-issued cell phones,” not counting Trump’s and Vice President Mike Pence’s personal devices. Arctic Frost secured an order from U.S. District Judge Boasberg allowing Smith’s office to obtain phone records of eight U.S. senators and one congressman. That same order swept up information from hundreds of conservative figures and groups, expanding the scope far beyond the initial targets.
At least two members of Congress have vowed to sue the Justice Department. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee say the investigation violated their congressional privilege and privacy protections under the separation of powers. Other Republican lawmakers describe Arctic Frost’s data collection as overly broad and insufficiently tailored. Critics in Congress say the probe resembled a fishing expedition rather than a narrowly targeted investigation, raising Fourth Amendment concerns.
FBI Director Kash Patel explained that the document release is part of a broader FBI effort to make public and available to congressional oversight evidence of law-enforcement misconduct and weaponization, after years of being withheld by previous directors.
“Under my leadership, the FBI is producing documents at record speed to get the facts straight to the American people. What occurred in the Arctic Frost matter was an egregious abuse of power and violation of the law. This FBI is committed to restoring accountability and public trust,” he said.
Two former Trump lawyers called the revelations disturbing. Jenna Ellis said the government’s targeting of private citizens for representing Trump “blatantly ignores the Fourth Amendment” and accused Jack Smith’s Arctic Frost probe of crossing a constitutional red line, calling for accountability.
Cleta Mitchell condemned the use of confidential informants against her and the election integrity movement she has led for five years. She called the surveillance “absolutely shocking” but unsurprising, saying Biden officials repeatedly showed disdain for the Constitution and its protections, and insisted the actions merit investigation.
Ellis and Mitchell urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to launch an immediate investigation.
President Trump responded to the revelations on his Truth Social platform. “Deranged Jack Smith should be sitting in prison for all that he has done to disgrace our Country!” he posted.
Thank God this isn’t the Epstein files or we’d never know about it!
end
stupid ruling!!
Orsted Shares Jump After Judge Allows Trump-Halted Wind Project To Resume
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Shares of Danish wind giant Orsted A/S rose on Tuesday after a US federal court ruled that construction work could resume on the company’s $5 billion Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island while legal challenges with the Trump administration persist.
On Monday, the US District Court for the District of Columbia granted a preliminary injunction sought by Revolution Wind regarding the Trump administration’s construction-halt order issued just before Christmas, citing national security risks. The order, issued by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, affected Orsted’s Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind projects.
Revolution Wind was nearly 90% complete when the Trump administration halted the project. District Judge Royce C. Lamberth said that, with the project so close to completion, it “would be irreparably harmed” unless work was allowed to continue during the legal battle.
In a statement released on its website, the Danish company said, “The project will resume construction work as soon as possible, with safety as the top priority, to deliver affordable, reliable power to the Northeast.”
The Interior Department issued a stop-work order late last year after claims that turbines could interfere with military radar systems. This followed an earlier August suspension, also citing national security. Judge Lamberth is also reviewing whether Orsted can proceed in a separate project called Sunrise Wind near New York.
Shares of Orsted in Copenhagen rose 6.6%. The stock peaked in December 2020 and tumbled into a six-year bear market. Still no bottoming signals have materialized just yet.
“This is great news for Orsted, and also gives justified hope that the construction halt on Sunrise Wind will be lifted soon,” Sydbank’s head of equity research, Jacob Pedersen, said.
UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst told clients, “There is relief in renewables, {UBXERNEW} up 50bp, as ORSTED is given the green light to resume its Revolution Wind project amid the ongoing legal tussle with the Trump administration. 2025 was a major turnaround year for the theme, shaking off political headwinds to close 54% higher after a weak 2024, where it finished 11% down.”
END
Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 11:25 AM
President Trump isn’t the only one clamming up over Jeffrey Epstein – as Bill and Hillary Clinton are both refusing to testify in front of Congressional investigators over their relationship with the dead sex-trafficking pedophile, escalating a monthslong battle with House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY).
The Clintons were scheduled to testify this week – weeks after the Trump DOJ released volumes of ‘Epstein Files’ – which were highly redacted, yet featured Bill prominently.
The former US president was scheduled to testify today (Jan. 13), and Hillary scheduled for tomorrow. Hours before the deadline, however, the Clintons made it clear in an 8-page letter that they have no intention of showing up – calling subpoenas issued by Comer “invalid and legally unenforceable,” adding that they’ll fight Comer as long as it takes.
“They are obligated under the law to appear and we expect them to do so,” and Oversight spokeswoman said last week. “If the Clintons do not appear for their depositions, the House Oversight Committee will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings.”
Which, they’re now initiating for Bill (which Hillary to follow).
Contempt of Congress is a misdemeanor that can result in a fine of up to $100,000 and up to a year in jail if pursued by the DOJ (so, nothing will happen and the Clintons know it).
Comer subpoenaed the Clintons seeking information regarding their personal interactions with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, including documented flights on Epstein’s private jet.
The Clintons said in their letter that they anticipated Mr. Comer would argue that the decision about whether to testify was not theirs to make.
“But we have made it,” they wrote. “Now you have to make yours.”
The Clintons had worked to beef up their legal team before Mr. Comer’s deadline. They brought on Ashley Callen, co-chair of the congressional investigations practice at Jenner & Block, who had previously worked as general counsel for Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, to interface with G.O.P. members on the House Oversight Committee. Ms. Callen also previously worked as a deputy staff director on the House Oversight Committee under Mr. Comer.
They also sought assistance from Abbe Lowell, the veteran lawyer famous for representing clients in the middle of political scandals. –NYT
The refusal to testify comes after a December 2025 testimony was rescheduled due to a funeral.
“Every person has to decide when they have seen or had enough and are ready to fight for this country, its principles and its people, no matter the consequences,” the Clintons wrote in a lengthy letter to Comer obtained by the NY Times. “For us, now is that time.”
They also accused Comer of potentially bringing Congress to a halt to pursue a politically driven process “literally designed to result in our imprisonment.”
“We are confident that any reasonable person in or out of Congress will see, based on everything we release, that what you are doing is trying to punish those who you see as your enemies and to protect those you think are your friends,” they wrote, adding that they expected Comer to “release irrelevant, decades-old photos that you hope will embarrass us.”
END
AN ABSOLUTE MORON!!!
Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026 – 10:25 AM
Authored by Charles Mitchell via RealClearPolitics,
Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration speech on Jan. 1 became instantly famous for his promise to prove the “warmth of collectivism.” Yet Americans should pay just as much attention to another deeply concerning comment from the socialist mayor of New York City’s first act in office. He declared that those who are “fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty,” implying that his administration won’t tolerate public debate about his agenda.
These words mark the moment when higher education’s radical monoculture jumped into the real world of political power and cultural impact. Our experiment in self-government is now at unprecedented risk.
Mamdani’s words are familiar to anyone who has followed the decline of the university in recent decades. It reflects the idea that respectful discourse – a central Enlightenment and American ideal – is really a tool of oppression used by elites to prop themselves up while keeping everyone else down. This belief is widespread on campus: A December poll from the free-speech group FIRE found that 90% of undergraduates think that “words can be violence.” Even worse, a third of students are willing to use actual violence to prevent the saying of those words. This is a generation prepared to stifle debate it dislikes, casting even the most well-meaning ideological opponents as enemies of society.
But Mamdani’s inauguration is the first time this generation has seized the levers of power outside of the classroom. It makes sense: His candidacy was driven by zealot-like support from young college graduates and students – the groups most likely to be radicalized. Now Mamdani, in some of his first words, is spreading the message that discourse is dangerous. This isn’t simply another college professor preaching to the undergrad choir. It’s the mayor of America’s most powerful city proselytizing the broader public about the supposed moral importance of stifling debate.
Mamdani’s rhetoric is especially dangerous due to his track record of enabling and encouraging antisemitism. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the biggest security bills my organization has paid have been for events in which Jewish students could discuss the Hamas attacks openly and experience their heritage – and that’s in a small town in rural Pennsylvania. Two of the speakers we hosted in November and protected were attacked, bloodied, and hospitalized the next day. But it’s just not Jewish people who are threatened when civil discourse is discarded. Everyone is at risk from the resulting breakdown of basic human decency.
Given the ideological capture of academia, the day was always going to come when the inmates started running the asylum. What’s shocking is that so many serious people failed to see it. A generation of well-meaning centrists let such extremism run riot in higher education, assuming that what happened on campus would surely stay there. It didn’t, and the resulting damage will not easily or quickly be undone.
But it must be confronted as soon as possible, which requires immediate action from sane Americans of all political stripes. While some may pin their hopes on the Trump administration, the real reform of higher education must happen elsewhere. As we enter America’s 250th year, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas policymakers have created new civics programs within their state universities. This is a template for further progress. At the very least, students should learn about the Enlightenment values that undergirded the American experiment before deciding whether they will join Mamdani in denouncing them.
The most important action, however, depends on philanthropists. Many of the country’s most successful people are profoundly disappointed by their alma maters, yet continue to make large, unrestricted gifts to them. This is profoundly self-defeating, insofar as it supports the training of a generation that rejects the foundations of American success. Instead, philanthropists should stop funding irreformable schools, establish new centers at the schools where there’s still a shred of hope, and even create new schools altogether, similar to the University of Austin. Whether on the sane left or the sane right, the donor’s goal should be to make civil discourse and respectful debate the defining part of a university’s work. That’s currently the case for only a handful of schools.
Zohran Mamdani is proof that the destructive ideology that defines the modern university is poised to damage America itself. He is the first of a wave of extremists who want to reshape society for the worse. Our best hope, as a country, is to begin building an even bigger wave of college graduates who practice civil discourse and promote social cohesion. This monumental challenge will take years. Untold harm will be done in the meantime. But the survival of our experiment in self-government ultimately depends on raising the next generation to choose a better, truer, and freer path than the one chosen by Zohran Mamdani and the radicalized army that elected him.
Charles Mitchell is co-founder and CEO of the Open Discourse Coalition.
END
GREG HUNTER,,,,
I WILL NOT DO A COMMENTARY TOMORROW AS I AM TRAVELLING BACK HOME
I WILL CATCH UP ON THE DATA FOR THURSDAY’S REPORT
WE ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TOGOLD AND SILVER
harveyorganblog.com 
