GOLD CLOSED CLOSED UP $9.55 TO $5121.25
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $5141.35 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 83.31 3;30 PM
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 5,107.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/03/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 03/05/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 590
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 65
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 221
323 H HSBC 59
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 395
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 40
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 83
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 113
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3 847
880 H CITIGROUP 3
905 C ADM 6 5
TOTAL: 1,215 1,215
MONTH TO DATE: 3,628
JPMORGAN STOPPED 3/1215
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MARCH/2026: 1215 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 121,500 OZ or 3.779 TONNES
total notices so far: 3628 contracts for 362,800 OR 11.275 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 607 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.035 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5694 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.470 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 491 CONTRACTS OR A HUGE 2.455 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.630 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 17.685 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVANCES TO 41.675 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF ISLVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2.455 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.630 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.678 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.334 TONNES/
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.678 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.334 TONNES OF GOLD./
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.678 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.334 TONNES/
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 50.883 TONNES//WILL BE VERY STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1968 CONTRACTS OI TO 115,194 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 113,326 CONTRACTS MARCH 4/2026
EFP ISSUANCE 1084 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1084 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1868 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1084 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 784 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $5.27
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.920 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $5.27
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 4/2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.20 PTS OR 0.98%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 518.60 PTS OR 2.01%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2083.05 PTS OR 3.20%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.05%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8914
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9040 Oil UP TO 75.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 82.73 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8914 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9040 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 120 CONTRACTS UP TO 409,789 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $188.75 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT HUGE PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD . AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A MEGA MEGA NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (9835). NOBODY FELL FOR THE RAID
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING TUESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS STARTED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY LONG THIS MONTH AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GOING NET SHORT AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MARCH CONTRACT MONTH!!
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM ITS LOW POINT IN OI TO NOW 409,789 AND NOW AMPLE ENOUGH TO GROW AND FROM THIS POINT FORTH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE CROOKS TO FLEECE OUR NEWBIE SPEC LONGS. THE ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI IS 390,000 CONTRACTS WHICH OCCURRED IN 2001 WITH GOLD AROUND $260. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT TODAY, THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND 5 %. RECENT LOWS FOR COMEX OI IS AROUND 409,000
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 9955 CONTRACTS (OR 30.96 TONNES) DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE, TUESDAY.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. WE HAVE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE THUS FAR FOR FEB NOW REMAINS AT SIX.(31.251 TONNES)
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MARCH:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUAY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MARCH COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,535 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MARCH/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2601 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SO FAR.. BUT DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE:
FOR EXAMPLE:
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 11 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 4.678//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 13.334 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MARCH,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $188.75 )
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE .. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI // BUT WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY’S ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (157 TONNES) AND ALSO MARCH’S STANDING OF 13+ TONNES.
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO MARCH:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP 4.678 TONNES//NEW TOTALS OF GOLD STANDING: 13.334 TONNES/
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $188.75
WE HAD A HUGE 13,580 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE .
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 9955 CONTRACTS OR 995,500 OZ OR 30.96 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MARCH 4
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 ENTRIES i) Out of HSBC 16,705.225 oz ii) Out of Malca: 5497.824 oz *171 kjilobars) iii) Out of Manfra: 8,909.752 oz total withdrawal: 31,127.798 oz or 0.9677 tonnes comex is draining of gold/. |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1215 CONTRACTS OR 121,500 OZ 3.779 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 659 contracts 65,900 OZ 2.049 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3628 notices 362,800 oz 11.275 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into Brinks: 2,000.0000 oz??
in tonnes: 0.622 tonnes
0 entry
customer withdrawals:
3 ENTRIES
3 ENTRIES
i) Out of HSBC 16,705.225 oz
ii) Out of Malca: 5497.824 oz *171 kjilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra: 8,909.752 oz
total withdrawal: 31,127.798 oz or 0.9677 tonnes
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 2..DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Brinks 16,543.401 oz
b) Loomis 3186.506 oz
total adjusted out of the dealer: 19,729.907 oz or .6136 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH
THE FRONT MONTH OF MARCH STANDS AT 1874 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1498 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
6 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUGE 1504 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 150,400 OZ
WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THE TONNAGE EQUATES TO 4.678 TONNES, A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP.
APRIL IS THE NEXT LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH AND IT GAINED 4316 CONTRACTS UP TO 270,147 CONTRACTS
MAY GAINED 112 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 727.
We had 1015 contracts filed for today representing 101500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 3 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1215 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8467 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAR. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3628) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (1874 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1215 x 100 oz per contract) equals 428700 OZ OR (13.334 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month: No of notices filed so far (3628 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAR (1874 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1215 x 100 oz) which equals 428,700 OR 13.334 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in MAR is 13.334 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH 13.334 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 316,434 strong due to incr volume //raid
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,690,628.288 oz 52.58 tonnes pledged gold lowers
ADJUSTMENTs 2..DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Brinks 16,543.401 oz
b) Loomis 3186.506 oz
total adjusted out of the dealer: 19,729.907 oz or .6136 tonnes
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,690,628.288 tonnes oz 52.58 tonnes pledged gold lowers
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 33,040,485.279 oz (draining huge of gold)
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 17,001,460.084. or 528.816 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,039,025.145 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 15,311435 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
476.24 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER/COMEX
MARCH 4 2026
INITIAL/
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 6 entries i) Out of Asahi: 64,999..200 oz ii) Brinks 600,589.700 oz iii) CNT 800,321.617 oz iv) Delaware 918.200 oz v) Int. Delaware 605,511.950 oz vi) Manfra 883,624.585 oz total withdrawals 2,953,965.251 oz the comex is being drained of silver |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT ENTRIES: 2 i) Into CNT 24,897.790 oz ii) Delaware 918.220 oz total deposit: 25,815.990 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 607 CONTRACT(S) ( 3.035 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1232 Contracts (6.160 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5694 contracts 28.470 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Stonex: 13,092.095 oz
total deposit: 13,092.095 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 2
i) Into CNT 24,897.790 oz
ii) Delaware 918.220 oz
total deposit: 25,815.990 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits into dealer account: 0
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
6 entries
i) Out of Asahi: 64,999..200 oz
ii) Brinks 600,589.700 oz
iii) CNT 800,321.617 oz
iv) Delaware 918.200 oz
v) Int. Delaware 605,511.950 oz
vi) Manfra 883,624.585 oz
total withdrawals 2,953,965.251 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 3
all customer account into the dealer: to replenish silver supplies
i) Brinks 379,199.630 oz
ii) HSBC 95,274.680 oz
iii) Manfra: 367,523.727 ooz
total removal of silver from registered to eligible = 841.998 oz
total removal from the registered silver to eligible silver
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 87.143 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 352.219 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MARCH
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2026 OI: 1839 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 250 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 241 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTER 280 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 2.455 MILLION OZ OF SILVER WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THIS IS A MONSTER QUEUE JUMP
APRIL, THE NEW FRONT MONTH SAW A GAIN OF 70 CONTRACTS UP TO 1109 CONTRACTS
MAY SAW A 1217 CONTRACT GAIN UP TO 77,647 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 607 or 3.035 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 119,545 strong+++//
AND NOW MARCH. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5694 X5,000 oz = 28.470 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH (1839) AND the number of notices served upon today (607)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH 2026 contract month: (5694)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH(1839) minus number of notices served upon today (607 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the FEB..contract month equating to 34.630 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 34.630 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL SMALL FOR A GENERALLY HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
New total standing: 34.630 million oz.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 87.143 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 152.794/352.219.million: 43.18%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
FEB 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $148.25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $79.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 18/2026/WITH GOLD UP $102.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 17/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $136.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077..04 TONNES
FEB 13/2026/WITH GOLD UP $94.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.140 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1076.18 TONNES
FEB 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $143.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.32 TONNES
FEB 11/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.65 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.34 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.32 TONNES
FEB 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1099.07 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
FEB 20 WITH SILVER UP $4.85 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.035 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.853 MILLION OZ
FEB 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 5.798 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.888 MILLION OZ
FEB 18 WITH SILVER UP $4.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 11.325 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.686 MILLION OZ
FEB 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.39 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.253 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.753 MILLION OZ
FEB 13 WITH SILVER UP $2.35 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.994 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.011 MILLION OZ
FEB 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $8.78 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.005 MILLION OZ
FEB 11 WITH SILVER UP $3.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 815,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.370 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.21 NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.555 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 513.813 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
.2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
The real commodity story
Pricing commodities in dollars is false. Changes in the dollar’s own value are not being considered. The best valuation is in gold, which as real money retains its purchasing power.
| Alasdair MacleodMar 4∙Paid |
The chart above illustrates the point. Under the Bretton Woods gold standard when the US dollar was exchangeable between central banks and governments at $35 for an ounce of gold, oil prices were remarkably stable. Originally fixed at $2.57 per barrel and 2.8829 barrels per gold gramme in 1950, it only rose to $3.56 per barrel and declined to 2.58 barrels per gold gramme when the Bretton Woods agreement was finally abandoned and the dollar became a fiat currency.
Even that small decline measured in gold can be laid at the door of increasing dollar instability, leading to the establishment and failure of the gold pool in the 1960s which was an attempt to contain a run on the dollar.
Following the abandonment of Bretton Woods, the oil price became extremely volatile, with the price rising to over $70 today, a multiple of over 27 times the 1950 oil value. Meanwhile, priced in gold, oil is only 26% of its post-war value.
This matters, because the decline of the dollar’s purchasing power and its volatility are unquestionable. As it is real legal money in everyone’s common law, we know that gold retains its purchasing power over decades, centuries, and even millennia. This is not to deny that it will fluctuate due to natural factors, economic cycles, and government interventions.
In the big sweep of history, none of these factors matter, and gold’s purchasing power for commodities always corrects towards a long-term norm. In the chart above, given that priced in gold oil was remarkably stable for over 20 years until 1971 when Bretton Woods was abandoned, we are entitled to assume that this should be oil’s long-term value. In which case, for it to lose 74% of its long-term value by today is clearly an aberration.
Critics of this approach will argue that gold itself is volatile, as demonstrated by its dollar price rising by over 80% in the year to date. But this misses the point: the volatility is not in gold but the fiat currency.
The next chart shows oil priced in gold to reveal how depressed oil prices in real terms have become.
The monthly average value is 96, close to the base value of 100. At 26, to return to that average suggests that priced in gold oil should rise nearly 300%. That would be the equivalent of $200 in today’s fiat dollars.
This is not a forecast, merely an illustration of the pricing distortions over time imposed by the fiat dollar on the most important energy and petrochemicals source for mankind. It also assumes constant values for the dollar, which are clearly not possible. Other MacleodFinance articles have demonstrated why the dollar’s purchasing power is now declining at an accelerating rate relative to gold. That being the case, the dollar price of oil should go considerably higher than $200 per barrel, a move which might be being triggered by the conflict against Iran.
But that is a different story, merely affecting timing. The point is that we can expect oil prices to go much higher, measured in fiat dollars.
Oil is not alone. The next chart is of a basket of base metals:
This basket is valued at only 19% of its long-term value using the methodology for oil. And already, despite reports of ample global stocks, we have seen the price of copper rise in dollars, while it collapses measured in gold:
Similar stories can be told in other commodity baskets. The message from what will undoubtedly be described as a major commodity bull market or a cyclical event, is that it is neither of these. It is simply an unwinding of cumulative fiat currency driven distortions coinciding with further declines in their purchasing power. So far, no one in the mainstream financial sector expects substantially higher commodity prices, though the US war against Iran is something of a wakeup call.
When they do wake up to it, macroeconomists will revise their forecasts of inflation, most probably by not nearly enough. It is likely to hit the dollar and attendant currencies hard later this year.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
\4.LIVE FROM THE VAULT YOU TUBE: 261 and 260
5. COMMODITY REPORT/SILVER//CITIC
ROBERT LAMBOURNE…OUR MAJOR CHINA’S SHORT SILVER PLAYE
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 3/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.20 PTS OR 0.98%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 518.60 PTS OR 2.01%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2083.05 PTS OR 3.20%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.05%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8914
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9040 Oil UP TO 75.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 82.73 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8914 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9040 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8974
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.9040
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 518.60 PTS OR 2.01%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 2083.05 PTS OR 3.20%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 75.12
BRENT; =82.73
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.84 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1634 UP 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +2.113/ UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.31… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.347 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8974 (DOWN) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.9040
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.7564 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.443 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.199
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.433
3j Gold at $5193.40 Silver at: 86.17 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 89/100 roubles/78.36
3m oil (WTI) into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.75 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.113% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.343 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7812 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9088 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.083 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.731 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.555 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.96 UP 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4720 UP 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.186 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.243 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.790 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Bounce, Oil Slides After Report Of Iran Backchannel Outreach
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 08:45 AM
It was shaping up as a catastrophic, margin-call driven Wednesday session after Japan’s Nikkei tumbled about 4% and Korea’s Kospi suffered its biggest drop ever, plunging by a record 12%. But after initially plunging overnight, S&P futures rose as much as 0.4% after the New York Times reported that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence used backchannels to contact the Central Intelligence Agency a day after US-Israeli attacks began. The report also stated that US officials are skeptical that either the Trump administration or Iran is ready for an offramp. Then futures faded modestly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a proposed 15% global tariff may take effect this week, bringing trade tensions back into focus as traders followed developments in the Middle East. As of 8:00am ET, futures for the S&P 500 – extremely illiquid and jittery – were little changed after rising as much as 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures were also modestly in the green with Mag7 and Semis leading in premarket trading, and Cyclicals outperforming Defensives. Asia’s benchmark index plunged the most in nearly a year, led by a record selloff in South Korean equities which crashed 12% in one session. The yield curve is bear steepening with yields +1-2bp and USD sees some profit-taking following its best 2-day gain since Apr 2025. In the commodity space, crude prices are higher by 1-2%, WTI and Brent, as natgas sees a slight pullback; precious & base metals are surging on the US pullback with Ags adding to gains. The Energy complex seems to be reflecting a view that markets need more information before finding a level as there are mechanical reasons why the US commerce guarantee will not reverse recent price gains. Aside from US / Iran update, the macro data focus is on ADP, Mtge Applications, and ISM-Srvcs.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 were mixed: Nvidia rose 0.6% after billionaire Leo KoGuan said he bought 1 million shares of the semiconductor giant and that he is “convinced AI is NOT a bubble, it is only the beginning.” (Tesla +1.1%, Meta +0.05%, Microsoft -0.5%, Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -0.4%)
- Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rebounds after a selloff spurred by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
- Gitlab (GTLB) drops 8% after the software company’s forecast for fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- Latham Group (SWIM) jumps 20% after the swimming pool designer’s net sales forecast for the full year surpassed the average analyst estimate.
- Moderna (MRNA) rises 11% after the biotechnology company agreed to pay Genevant, a subsidiary of Roivant Sciences, and Arbutus $950 million to settle litigation related to the delivery technology behind its Covid shot. Analysts note that the settlement value was better than feared and that this should lift some litigation overhang on the stock.
- SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) rises 8% after entering into an agreement to sell its 80% ownership stake in the Çöpler mine in Turkey to Cengiz for $1.5 billion in cash.
- Staar Surgical (STAA) falls 10% after the health care supplies firm reported net sales for the fourth quarter that missed Wall Street’s estimates.
- Webtoon (WBTN) declines 13% after the storytelling platform reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
In other corporate news, the architect of Alibaba’s AI model has surprisingly quit as tech lead for Qwen. Anthropic is on track to generate annual revenue of almost $20 billion, more than doubling it run rate from late last year. The CEOs of Nvidia and Microsoft deliver keynote speeches at the Morgan Stanley TMT conference later today in San Francisco. And a billionaire Tesla ‘whale’ says he bought shares in Nvidia, convinced AI is not a bubble. Novo Nordisk shares are higher after the FDA issued 30 warning letters to telehealth companies for “making false and misleading claims regarding compounded GLP-1 products offered on their websites.” Sinclair’s The Tennis Channel is added to Amazon as part of a broader push into the online TV market. Intel says Craig Barratt, a board member since November, to become chair following the annual shareholders meeting on May 13.
Markets have endured days of volatility after the US-Israeli attack on Iran destabilized the Middle East, curbing energy supplies and damaging infrastructure. The main focus remains on crude as traders weigh President Donald Trump’s plan to insure and escort tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with traffic in the vital waterway all but halted.
“We’re in a headline market,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “Rapid movements with higher volatility will remain for a longer period until supply chains are secure again. It will take some time to calm markets.”
Trump on Tuesday said the US will ensure the free flow of energy through the Persian Gulf with insurance guarantees and even naval escorts. But the shipping industry sees it at best as only a partial solution to a historic crisis. Meanwhile, China may need to lean on US gas supplies to cover potential shortfalls. South Korea imports nearly all of its oil and gas, and Asia’s dependence on oil is illustrated in the table below. Indeed, while the US is relatively immune as a “gigantic energy superpower,” according to Barclays’ global chairman of research Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Asian economies like China, India, South Korea and Japan are more dependent on oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman’s David Solomon said he wasn’t surprised to see volatility measures climb. “It’s going to take a couple of weeks for markets to really digest the implications,” he said. Meanwhile, derivative strategists note a shift higher at the front end of the VIX futures curve signaling a market that is rapidly pricing short-term risk, without an escalation to full-on panic. Although risk assets face a “significant headwind” from rising geopolitical tensions and AI disruption, underlying growth and earnings growth mean the depth and extent of a correction will be limited, note Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer.
Mohit Kumar, chief strategist for Jefferies in Europe, said the firm’s US clients are generally more optimistic than those in Europe and Asia. The gap reflects US investors’ greater focus on Trump’s actions, which could lead them to underestimate Iran’s response. For Aneeka Gupta, director of macro-economic research at Wisdomtree, the real test for markets will be whether oil and the dollar remain higher long enough to significantly change the behavior of central banks.
“If the shock is short-lived, energy settles, and dollar strength doesn’t become persistent, then the macro impact is mostly a risk premium event — volatility up, but growth intact,” she said.
In geopolitics, German Chancellor Merz says the EU won’t accept US trade deal on worse tariff terms. Several Chinese financial firms are scaling back exposure to Middle Eastern debt, while regulators are stepping up oversight as the conflict raises concerns over the nation’s extensive lending in the region.
In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 is up some 1.6% posting a modest rebound from the worst two-day decline since April triggered by shocks from the Middle East conflict. Stocks turned green for the year following the NYT report that Iran is trying to backchannel with the US. Positive earnings news also buoys sentiment. The sector breakdown shows a preference for tech, industrial and financials.Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:
- ASM International shares rise as much as 5.8% after the chip equipment firm guided 1Q revenue ahead of expectations, driven both by strong demand from advanced chipmakers amid AI infrastructure rollout, and a rebound in sales from Chinese clients.
- Scor shares gain as much as 4.8% following its fourth-quarter report, with net income coming in significantly ahead of expectations and analysts highlighting solvency “reassuringly ahead.”
- Galliford Try shares rally as much as 6.8% after the UK construction firm beat expectations in the first half and raised its guidance for the full year, stating it has improved confidence from its high level of revenue visibility over the coming years.
- Bayer shares drop as much as 4.2% after the German conglomerate forecast little change in profit and sales in 2026.
- Adidas shares fall as much as 7.8% after the German sportswear maker’s 2026 operating profit forecast missed analysts estimates.
- Continental shares fall as much as 3.2% with analysts disappointed by aspects of the German auto supplier’s 2026 guidance following a pre-release earlier in the year.
- Aroundtown drops as much as 4.9% as Jefferies says the German real estate firm’s funds from operations “landed at the low end of guidance.”
- Redcare Pharmacy shares slide as much as 17% after the online pharmacy reported earnings that missed expectations and gave cautious guidance for this year that disappointed across the board, according to analysts.
- Vistry shares plunge as much as 25% to the lowest since 2016 as the UK homebuilder guides to a lower margin following increased sales incentives to generate cash in a challenging market.
- Traton shares dive as much as 5.8% after the truck maker issued broad growth and margin targets for this year that fell significantly short of expectations at the midpoint.
- Weir Group shares fall as much as 9% after the British engineering company reported adjusted operating profit for the full year that met the average analyst estimate.
Earlier in the session, Asia looked like a missile crater as stocks extended their selloff for a third straight day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 4.5%, the most since April 7, driven by sharp losses in Korean equities and regional tech heavyweights including TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Korea’s benchmark Kospi plunged 12%, its biggest drop ever, as the Iranian war triggered the biggest-ever selloff in what had been the world’s hottest stock market. The Kospi’s rout triggered a 20-minute trading halt early in the session. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Japan slid around 4% each, with virtually all major regional equity indexes in the red. China’s onshore CSI 300 Index wiped out its year-to-date gains.
Taking a quick look at earnings, Out of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 73% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 22% have missed.
In FX, the improvement in sentiment has weighed on the greenback with the Bloomberg Dollar index down 0.2%, snapping a two-day run of gains. The yen gained during APAC trade amid intervention talk from Japan’s Katayama.
In rates, a selloff in global bonds eased, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising two basis points to 4.08%.
In commodities,WTI crude trimmed gains after the New York Times reported that Iranian operatives made an offer to the US to discuss terms for ending the conflict a day after attacks began.
Treasuries are down a handful of ticks with yields up 1-2bps across the curve. Spot gold and silver are higher by 2% and 5.1%. Bitcoin has also marched higher, up 4.4%. Brent crude retreated from an intraday high to trade near $82 a barrel. Bitcoin jumped to nearly $70,000, suggesting some return of risk appetite.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for February from the US and Europe. In the US there’s also the ISM services index and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for February, whilst in the Euro Area we’ll get the unemployment rate for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Muller, Cipollone and Villeroy, along with Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Otherwise, the Fed will release their Beige Book.
Markets Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +1.1%
- MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 4%
- Japan’s Nikkei Index fell 3.6%
- China’s CSI 300 Index fell 1.1%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2%
- Taiwan’s Taiex Index fell 4.4%
- South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 12%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.9%
- New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Gross Index fell 0.7%
- India’s NSE Nifty 50 Index fell 1.8%
- DAX +1.3%
- CAC 40 +0.9%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.08%
- VIX -0.6 points at 23.02
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1200.93
- euro +0.2% at $1.1636
- WTI crude +1.6% at $75.79/barrel
Top Overnight News
- A day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of intelligence reached out indirectly to the CIA with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. US officials are skeptical – at least in the short term – that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an offramp. NYT
- Oil edged higher near $83 a barrel, with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz all but halted. Donald Trump’s plan to protect vessels with insurance backstops and naval escorts is only a partial fix, shippers said. BBG
- The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran. The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support. CNN
- The son of former Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as his most likely successor, suggesting the country is moving in a hardline direction. NYT
- China’s legislature signaled a desire for steady relations with the US as the countries prepare for a planned summit between Xi Jinping and Trump in the coming weeks. BBG
- US shale drillers cannot increase production quickly enough to solve an oil supply crisis caused by the war in Iran, industry bosses have warned, saying a big rise in output would take months to materialize. FT
- Gauges of China’s manufacturing and services activity sent mixed signals about the economy, showing pockets of weakness alongside improvement as markets wait for the country’s leaders to set growth targets for the year ahead.
- Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his commitment to further interest-rate increases amid deepening concerns over instability in the Middle East. WSJ
- Anthropic is on track to generate annual revenue of almost $20 billion, more than doubling its run rate from late last year, people familiar said. Separately, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees that the company has no say over what the Pentagon does with its AI software. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- Japan and the US are reportedly working to include nuclear power, copper smelting and refining facility projects in the second round of deals under the USD 500bln investment package.
- Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa is to travel to the US on Thursday to discuss Japan-US investment and will meet with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks extended losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East, with the UAE considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, while it was also estimated that Saudi Arabia could attack Iran soon. ASX 200 slumped with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors, while better-than-expected Australian GDP data for Q4 failed to inspire a turnaround. Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 54,000 level with mining and materials the worst performers amid disruption concerns. KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms, while large exporters such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Hyundai Motor also suffered. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the bloodbath in the region as participants digested mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed, but the private sector RatingDog PMI accelerated to multi-year highs, while attention is also on the Two Sessions, which began today in Beijing, while the focus will be on the Work Report on Thursday.
Top Asian News
- China NPC spokesperson said will continue to expand domestic demand this year. Will foster new growth points in services consumption. Will promote high-quality employment this year. To reduce residents’ concerns about expanding consumption. Will promote the allocation of more resources to areas related to people’s livelihood, enabling people to consume, dare to consume and be willing to consume.
- Chinese banks reportedly halt Abu Dhabi loans as creditors cut Middle East, Bloomberg reported; most Asian banks are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach but there are early signs some are mulling pausing deals.
- Abu Dhabi Ports confirms the continuation of all its operations in light of regional developments; expect a decrease in the number of arriving ships with the decline in shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Al Arabiya reported.
- Cosco Shipping (1919 HK) suspends new bookings on relevant routes amid escalating Middle East conflict.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) have broadly rebounded following this week’s selloff, with the IBEX 35 (+1.6%) and DAX 40 (+1.6%) outperforming this morning, which was boosted following the New York Times report (see below). On the data front, EZ and UK final composite PMIs failed to move indices. In addition, Swiss inflation for February came in hotter-than-expected but the SMI didn’t react much to the data on the open. Sectors display a positive picture. Technology (+2.5%) sits clearly at the top after ASM International (+6.5%) beat Q4 revenue and Q1 revenue outlook estimates. Regarding China, the Co. also anticipates a rise in sales, showing notable improvement from the earlier forecast of a double-digit decline. Energy (-0.6%) is the worst-performing sector. Consumer Products and Services (+0.8%) was initially softer, after being on by Adidas (-6.9%), but reversed higher on the broader risk tone. Adidas reported Q4 revenue that missed expectations, while an operating profit of “around” EUR 2.3bln in 2026 fell short of analyst estimates.
Top European News
- German VDMA Engineering Association said January orders -6% Y/Y (domestic -8% and foreign at -5%).
- French Finance Minister said they will hold a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers early next week.
FX
- DXY is choppy within a 98.90-99.33 range and well within Tuesday’s 98.44-99.68 parameters. Focus remains on the Middle Eastern conflict, which continues to expand across the region. Analysts at ING highlight that near-term drivers of risk will probably be whether energy prices can reverse lower if the Strait of Hormuz can somehow reopen, and also whether central banks will be able to cut rates to support activity, or at least not tighten policy. Elsewhere, the data calendar for the US is very light, although ISM Services is scheduled later, while there were recent Fed speakers, in which the main message was that policy was well-positioned, and it is too soon to gauge the impact of the war in Iran on inflation. USD eased on NYT reports that Iran reached out to the US a day after the war started, although US officials are reportedly sceptical that either the Trump administration or Iran is ready for an off-ramp in the short term at least.
- EUR is flat against the USD and trades on either side of 1.1600, with the single currency not helped by President Trump threatening to halt all trade with Spain, citing the country’s refusal to allow American military forces to use joint air bases for operations against Iran. Meanwhile, no EUR move was seen on the final PMIs, which are outdated amid the geopolitical developments since the survey period.
- GBP holds above 1.3300 vs the USD following recent underperformance, not helped by President Trump publicly expressing frustration with UK PM Starmer, stating “I’m not happy with the UK” and “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with,” after Britain refused to join offensive strikes.
- CHF is off best levels in choppy trade, with USD/CHF recouping from intraday lows of 0.7790 in the aftermath of hotter-than-expected Swiss CPI and ahead of the SNB meeting on March 19th. On that note, SNB Vice Chair said they are ready to intervene in the FX market – echoing similar commentary on Monday.
- JPY outperforms amid the ongoing geopolitical woes. USD/JPY was choppy overnight amid a quiet calendar for Japan and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Iranian conflict and effects on inflation, as well as the ramifications for BoJ monetary policy. The pair is subdued within a 157.16-157.86 range vs yesterday’s 157.15 low. USD/JPY saw some volatility following NYT reports that US officials are sceptical of either Iran’s or the US’ willingness to off-ramp in the short term, relating to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry reportedly reaching out to the CIA indirectly a day after the conflict started with an offer to discuss terms.
Fixed Income
- Mixed trade at the time of writing, with USTs bearish while peers are firmer but only modestly. Benchmarks recouped some ground late US and during the early APAC session. However, they then faded again as energy prices continued to climb.
- USTs at the low end of 112-27 to 113-05+ parameters. Focus remains on the geopolitical front with the conflict still ongoing and showing no sign of letting up in the near-term at least. An event of focus is the funeral of Khamenei, after which we may get the formal appointment of his successor, widely expected to be Mojtaba Khamenei, the second eldest son. Elsewhere, the US day is headlined by ISM Services and then numerous mega-cap presentations at a Morgan Stanley conference.
- Bunds were in line with USTs late-US and into the early APAC session. Thereafter, the benchmark waned from best but remains just about in the green. Specifics for the space have been light, aside from geopols. No move to Final PMIs. For the most part, Europe is waiting for further clarity on the energy situation, Trump’s displeasure with Spain and the Hungarian opposition to Ukraine amid the Druzhba closure. Currently, the benchmark holds just below the 129.00 mark in a 128.80 to 129.32 band.
- Gilts gapped higher by 37 ticks before climbing a handful more to a 91.91 peak. A bounce that wasn’t too surprising, given the overnight moves in peers. However, one that leaves it shy of Tuesday’s opening level/high of 92.47 and still a significant distance from the week’s 93.55 open. For the UK, focus is firmly on the above events. Note, Goldman Sachs has stuck to its BoE call of three 25bps cuts this year, but has pushed out the timing by one month; as such, they now expect the first move in April not March.
- Upside was seen across benchmarks as energy prices (namely nat gas) fell on reports that Operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the CIA a day after the conflict began, with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, New York Times reports citing sources. US officials are reportedly sceptical that either the Trump administration or Iran is ready for an off-ramp in the short term at least.
- Germany sold EUR 0.96bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.30% 2033 Green Bund: b/c 1.76x (prev. 3.57x), average yield 2.53% (prev. 2.39%), retention 4.0% (prev. 15.6%)
- Australia sold AUD 900mln October 2037 bonds, b/c 3.74, avg. yield 4.8573%.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning as geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to underpin the complex, with WTI (+1.1%) and Brent (+1.6%) trading at the upper ranges of USD 74.37-77.23/bbl and USD 81.28-84.48/bbl, respectively. Saudi Arabia announced that there was an attempt to attack Ras Tanura refinery, however, there was no damage reported at the refinery.
- European Nat Gas has slipped some 7% following reports that Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out to the CIA indirectly a day after the conflict began with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, although US officials are reportedly sceptical that either the Trump administration or Iran is ready for an off-ramp in the short term at least. Crude futures dipped modestly on these reports.
- Spot gold continued its rebound, shrugging off recent USD strength that hampered price action yesterday for the yellow metal, trading just below the USD 5,200/oz mark. Haven demand has underpinned gold prices as the conflict in the Middle East reaches its fifth day. Modest upside was seen on the aforementioned NYT reports as the USD eased.
- Copper prices are trading higher thus far in the European session, tracking mild tailwinds following China’s manufacturing PMI data, which showed the greatest improvement in manufacturing conditions in more than five years. At the time of writing, 3M LME copper trades at the upper range of 12.94-13.1k/t.
- Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was reportedly struck again by an unknown projectile, according to sources; no damage was reported.
- UKMTO receives report of an incident 10NM east of UAE’s Fujairah, according to an advisory note; an oil tanker in the Gulf suffered an explosion and the wreckage of an unknown projectile was found on its deck and all crew members are fine.
- IRGC say they have complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to AFP.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said we are ready to increase oil supplies to China and India in case of additional demand.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange are to adjust price limits and margin ratios for FU2604 fuel oil futures contract.
- Goldman Sachs said Brent could reach USD 100/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 5 more weeks.
- Qatar Gulf International Services noted stoppage of certain operations and services related to energy sector activities.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +5.6mln (exp. +2.3mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. -2.6mln), Gasoline -3.3mln (exp. -0.8mln), Cushing +1.5mln.
Central Banks
- Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) says it is too soon to determine the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, NY Times reports. Supports holding rates steady for “quite some time.”
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said Fed can sit tight as war clouds the outlook, via WSJ interview; 1 or 2 cuts later this year could be appropriate if inflation cools, but war in the Middle East could also create conditions that would justify extended pause.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said wages are expected to rise for a broad range of sectors in this year’s wage negotiations, and that annual real wages to gradually turn positive.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said the central bank communicates closely with the government. Added that wages need to increase significantly for Japan to sustainably achieve BoJ’s price target. Mechanism in which wages and prices rise in tandem becoming embedded in Japan’s economy. Exchange rate fluctuations are now more likely to influence corporate behaviour. The impact of FX movements on prices is being closely watched. If economic activity and inflation align with forecasts, interest rate increases will continue. A rate hike would be appropriate if the economic outlook evolves as expected. General views on the economy were exchanged with Takaichi last month. The BoJ will carefully assess how Middle East developments affect domestic and global economic conditions. Persistently high oil prices could lift underlying inflation by pushing up medium- and long-term household and corporate inflation expectations. The BoJ will closely monitor the economic implications of the Middle East conflict. Developments in the Middle East could significantly affect both the global and Japanese economy through energy prices and market channels. Higher energy prices may also influence inflation expectations. Elevated oil prices worsen Japan’s terms of trade, weighing on the economy and underlying inflation dynamics. Oil prices have been rising sharply.
- SNB Vice Chair said they are ready to intervene in the FX market.
- CNB’s Deputy Governor Frait said the development over the past week may lower space to reduce interest rates and cannot say today how he will vote at next meeting.
- Bank of Korea Governor Rhee said to hold meeting to review markets, adds to closely monitor for excessive moves in FX and interest rates, will respond if needed on the forex market to prevent herd-like behaviour.
- Goldman Sachs expects the BoE to cut by 25bps in April, July and November 2026 (prev. forecast March, June and September 2026).
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US officials are sceptical of either Iran’s or the US’ willingness to off-ramp in the short term, relating to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry reportedly reaching out to the CIA indirectly a day after the conflict started with an offer to discuss terms, NYT reports.
- A number of Iranian media reported that an explosion was heard in Karaj, Iran International reported.
- Former Iranian Supreme Leader’s top aide said Iran has no intention of conducting negotiations with the US, Al Jazeera citing Iranian TV.
- Iran launched over 40 missiles at Israeli and US targets a few hours ago, according to Iranian press.
- Iran has hit more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings and warns ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to FARS.
- Heavy explosions heard in east Tehran, Iran, local media reported.
- Plume of smoke rising from the US Consulate in Dubai, Iran’s IRNA reported.
- US and Israeli forces have targeted Tehran, Urmia, Isfahan, and Karaj with heavy air strikes.
- Israeli army advances further into Lebanese territory, Al Jazeera reported.
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz said that any leader appointed in Iran will be an explicit target.
- IDF identifies missiles fired by Iran towards Israel and is working to intercept them.
- IDF said it has started a wave of attacks against missile launch sites, defence systems, and infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime.
- Defence executives are to meet at the White House on Friday as strikes on Iran reduce stockpiles, according to Reuters.
- US Central Command said they destroyed 17 Iranian ships and no Iranian ships sailing in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman today.
- CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, according to sources cited by CNN.
- US and Israel are seeking to foment an armed uprising inside Iran using an armed Kurdish fighting force, according to ITV News citing sources. ITV News understands since last year, weapons have been smuggled into Western Iran to arm thousands of Kurdish volunteers. They are expected to begin a ground operation within days. ITV have been told by Kurdish sources that American and Israeli forces have been asked to provide air cover when any such ground operation begins. ITV sources do not know if that request has been approved.
- Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran International reported citing sources.
- Two drone attacks targeted a US military base and a hotel in Iraq’s Erbil early on Wednesday.
- Suspected Iranian drone attack hits CIA station in Saudi, according to WaPo reporter.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian President Putin will hold a call with Hungary’s Foreign Minister later today to discuss Ukraine, according to Russia’s Kremlin.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said we are ready to increase oil supplies to China and India in case of additional demand.
- Russian gas tanker reportedly attacked in Mediterranean Sea; Ukrainian naval drones attacked Russian gas tankers from Libya’s coast, according to the Russian Transport Ministry.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: United States Feb 27 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.4%
- 8:15 am: United States Feb ADP Employment Change, est. 50k, prior 22k
- 9:45 am: United States Feb F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.3, prior 52.3
- 9:45 am: United States Feb F S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.3, prior 52.3
- 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Services Index, est. 53.5, prior 53.8
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Timing is everything in financial markets and what I thought would be a fascinating pack and create a lot of interest when I finished it on Friday has been overtaken by events. However, I still had a few great meetings yesterday in New York on the “Innovation, Jobs and Inflation: Lessons from 250 Years of Disruption” pack. Lots of debate around it. See it here. Once the Iran situation calms (assuming it does) this will be the main topic in markets again. So feel free to delve in as you wait for the next Iran headlines.
Indeed, we are in the headline-watching business at the moment, with competing stories shifting market sentiment an hourly basis yesterday. Moreover, the selloff has yet to find a floor, as fears of a more protracted Middle East conflict have led to mounting concern about a serious energy shock. So overnight, South Korea’s KOSPI (-11.13%) is currently on track for its biggest one-day fall since 2001, and futures on the S&P 500 (-0.55%) are pointing to further declines as well. That all follows a highly volatile 24 hours in markets, with the VIX index up to a 3-month high of 23.57pts, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-3.08%) saw its largest daily slump since the Liberation Day tariff turmoil last April. Elsewhere, an aggressive slump in bonds saw 10yr gilts post their worst 2-day move in two years, and the EM FX carry index (-1.64%) had its worst day since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Of course, oil prices have been the main focus given the direct impact, and yesterday saw Brent crude up another +4.71% to $81.40/bbl. So that now makes it the biggest 2-day jump for oil prices (+12.31%) since the pandemic recovery in 2020, and this morning they’re up another +1.51% to $82.63/bbl. However, prices did come off their intraday peak above $85/bbl in European hours, stabilising after Trump said that the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible” if necessary and that it would provide political risk insurance for ships travelling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD”. That said, with little detail on the plan, the reversal in oil proved short-lived, with Brent falling back to $78.40/bbl before rising again, moving back above $82/bbl this morning. That came as Iran’s IRGC said in a statement that vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz “could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones”.
From a market perspective, the main issue is that there’s no sign of either side de-escalating, and if anything it looks as though things are still ratcheting up. For instance, the WSJ reported that Trump was open to supporting armed militias in Iran, although it said he hadn’t made a final decision. Meanwhile on the energy side, the supply issues continued to deteriorate, as Bloomberg reported that Iraq had started to shut down oil production that could halt 3mn barrels per day if the crisis persisted. And in addition to the renewed IRGC warning over the Strait of Hormuz, airstrikes have continued, with Israel carrying out a “broad wave of strikes” against Iran overnight, while we’ve seen reports of blasts in Doha and Dubai and missiles intercepted by Saudi Arabia.
This backdrop has meant energy prices have kept climbing across the board. In addition to the rise in oil, European natural gas futures soared yesterday, up another +21.98% to €54.29/MWh, building on their +39% gain on Monday. Interestingly though, if you look at the long-term history of oil prices, WTI is still a little below its 2024 average, and there’s still a long way to go before it compares to some of history’s bigger crises. So much as things are deteriorating, we’re still some distance from recessionary territory and a full-scale market correction. I looked at that in my chart of the day yesterday (link here), and Henry also put out a note (link here) looking at the criteria that have traditionally led to meaningful selloffs when an oil shock happens, none of which have occurred yet. Indeed, for all the volatility, the S&P 500 is within 2.5% of its peak, and the STOXX 600 within 5%. So despite everything that’s happened, we haven’t got to correction territory yet, let alone a bear market.
For now at least, the most obvious impact has been in the rates space, where the conflict has led to growing concern about inflation and whether central banks will be forced back into rate hikes. So in Europe, investors have priced in a growing probability of an ECB hike this year, with the chance up to 34% by last night’s close. Similarly in the US, the amount of rate cuts priced by December came down another -5.4bps on the day to 46bps. So all that pushed sovereign bond yields higher on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps), OATs (+8.5bps), BTPs (+10.1bps) all spiking, whilst 10yr Treasuries (+2.5bps) saw a smaller move up to 4.06%. That’s continued overnight too, with the 10yr Treasury yield up another +0.2bps.
Meanwhile for equities, the selloff accelerated yesterday, with the US and Europe seeing even deeper losses relative to Monday. So in the US, the S&P 500 (-0.94%) gave way after holding up on Monday, though it did partially recover from an intraday low of -2.49% shortly before Europe went home. Even so, all eleven major sector groups ended the day lower, including energy. Paradoxically, software & services stocks (+1.58%) were one of the few outperformers. Then in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-3.08%) posted its biggest daily decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last year, with even deeper losses for the DAX (-3.44%) and the CAC 40 (-3.46%). And unlike on Monday, even the energy and defence names weren’t immune, with the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index (-2.74%) posting its biggest decline so far this year.
One of the big themes in yesterday’s market turmoil were sharp reversals for several recent winning trades. For instance, 10yr gilts, which had rallied by -33bps in just over three weeks, have sold off by +24bps over the past two sessions (+9.7bps yesterday). Meanwhile, gold (-4.38%) and silver (-8.23%) plunged despite the risk-off mood. Indeed, the dollar (+0.68%) was one of very few assets other than oil that were in the green yesterday.
Likewise, another 2026 winner to see a sharp reversal has been the Kospi, which is down -11.13% this morning, which would be the index’s worst daily slump since markets returned after the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Indeed, trading was paused earlier after a circuit breaker was triggered, and only yesterday the index saw a -7.24% decline as well. It was only last Thursday that I’d noted in my CoTD (see here) how the Kospi had moved from cheap to expensive after a near +50% YTD gain. Remarkable how quickly things can turn in markets.
Those declines have been echoed across Asia, albeit not quite to the same extent. That said, the Nikkei (-3.76%) is currently on course for its biggest daily decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last April, right before Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension that sparked the market rebound. And other indices are also falling significantly, with declines for the Hang Seng (-2.90%), the CSI 300 (-1.16%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.09%). The moves also come after the PMIs in China were a little weaker than expected, with the manufacturing PMI down to 49.0 (vs. 49.2 expected), whilst the non-manufacturing PMI only rose to 49.5 (vs. 49.7 expected).
Clearly the Middle East was totally dominating attention yesterday, but there were a few other stories to look out for. Notably in the Euro Area, the flash CPI print for February surprised on the upside, which exacerbated investors’ energy-driven inflation fears. So headline CPI was up to +1.9% (vs. +1.7% expected), whilst core CPI rose to +2.4% (vs. +2.2% expected), raising expectations that the ECB might still need to hike this year.
Separately in the UK, the government also announced their Spring Statement, including the OBR’s latest economic forecasts. According to those, it showed that the headroom against the fiscal rules now stood at £23.6bn, slightly higher than the November budget. However, the forecasts were made before the latest surge in energy prices, so clearly that will change the picture. See our UK economist’s recap here
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for February from the US and Europe. In the US there’s also the ISM services index and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for February, whilst in the Euro Area we’ll get the unemployment rate for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Muller, Cipollone and Villeroy, along with Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Otherwise, the Fed will release their Beige Book.
1b European opening report
1 c Asian opening report
Trump gives assurances to tankers passing through Hormuz; KOSPI triggered circuit breaker – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 01:53 AM
- APAC stocks extended on losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East; KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms.
- Iran hit more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings and warns ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to FARS.
- US President Trump said, “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible”.
- US President Trump announced with immediate effect that the US is to provide political risk insurance and guarantees (at a very reasonable price) for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, travelling through the Gulf.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 3.6% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Feb), Global Final Composite/Services PMIs (Feb), EZ Unemployment (Jan), PPI (Jan), US ISM Services PMI (Feb), NBP Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB’s Cipollone, de Guindos & BoC’s Macklem. Supply from Germany, Earnings from Broadcom, Merck & Deutsche Post.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said everything was knocked out in Iran and they felt strongly that Iran was going to attack first, based on the way talks were going. Trump stated that Iran no longer has air protection and detection facilities, while adding that there was another hit on the new leadership.
- US and Israeli forces targeted Tehran, Urmia, Isfahan, and Karaj with heavy air strikes, while the IDF announced it conducted a wave of attacks against missile launch sites, defence systems, and infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime.
- US Central Command said they have bombed nearly 2,000 targets in Iran and destroyed 17 Iranian ships, while it stated there are no Iranian ships sailing in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman today.
- US President Trump said if we have slightly high oil prices, it could be for a little while, but they will drop and could even be below the levels before. Trump also announced with immediate effect that the US is to provide political risk insurance and guarantees (at a very reasonable price) for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, travelling through the Gulf. Furthermore, he said that “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible”.
- US and Israel are seeking to foment an armed uprising inside Iran using an armed Kurdish fighting force, while it was separately reported that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces.
- US Senator Schumer said the Senate will vote on the Iran war powers resolution on Wednesday.
- Israeli Home Front reported sirens sounding in several towns in Israel’s Upper Galilee, while the IDF identified missiles fired by Iran towards Israel and was working to intercept them. Furthermore, the IDF issued an evacuation notice to 16 villages in southern Lebanon.
- Israel Defence Force said they have killed the commander of the Iranian Qods Force’s Lebanon Corps.
- IDF spokesman said the Iranian regime transferred some components of the nuclear program to secret sites, but they found them and struck them.
- Iran hit more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings and warns ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to FARS.
- Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader, according to Iran International.
- There has reportedly been a 70% decrease in launch volumes from Iran.
- IAEA’s Grossi said there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb, while he added that Iran’s large stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern.
- US Embassy in Riyadh noted continuous threats of Iranian missile strikes and drones targeting areas in Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia said it will take all necessary measures to defend its security. There were also separate reports that Saudi defences intercepted and destroyed nine drones after they entered the kingdom’s airspace, and that a suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA station in Saudi Arabia.
- Sirens and explosions were reported in Bahrain, while Kuwait said two Kuwaiti army personnel were killed on Monday as a result of Iran’s attacks against the country.
- French President Macron said France will send air defences and a warship to Cyprus.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were sold on Tuesday, albeit closed off lows, as the escalating Middle Eastern conflict continued to dominate trade and newsflow with the war showing no signs of slowing down, as the attacks from all sides continued far and wide, with Iran continuing to attack US bases in the Middle East, while it was reported that the UAE is considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, with reports also suggesting that Iran hit the US consulate in Dubai. As such, WTI and Brent saw extensive gains, but then pulled back from intraday peaks after US President Trump confirmed actions to attempt to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently “closed”.
- SPX -0.94% at 6,817, NDX -1.09% at 24,720, DJI -0.83% at 48,501, RUT -1.75% at 2,609.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said they must charge tariffs on nations that play with their money, while they have a 5-month period to go at 15% tariffs and are doing the various studies on tariffs during this time.
- US President Trump said he will be going to China in a little while and has a very good relationship with China. Furthermore, Trump said he told Treasury Secretary Bessent to cut off all dealings with Spain, and he is not happy with the UK either, while he stated that Spain has been very uncooperative and that the UK has ruined relationships, which he said is a shame.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Supreme Court reaffirmed President Trump’s ability to implement an embargo.
- German Chancellor Merz told US President Trump of the need to complete the US-EU trade deal to end the uncertainty.
- Spain’s government said regarding President Trump’s threat to cut trade, that the US must comply with international law and the bilateral EU-US trade agreement.
- Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa is to travel to the US on Thursday and will meet US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and discuss Japan-US investment.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said it is too soon to assess the Iran conflict’s impact on inflation and that it could have an impact on monetary policy. Kashkari added that policy is in a good place and uncertainty around tariffs has increased, but he does not think the latest round of tariffs will have a fresh inflation impact. Kashkari separately commented that the Fed can sit tight as war clouds the outlook, while he also noted that one or two cuts later this year could be appropriate if inflation cools, but war in the Middle East could also create conditions that would justify an extended pause.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks extended losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East, with the UAE considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, while it was also estimated that Saudi Arabia could attack Iran soon.
- ASX 200 slumped with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors, while better-than-expected Australian GDP data for Q4 failed to inspire a turnaround.
- Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 54,000 level with mining and materials the worst performers amid disruption concerns.
- KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms, while large exporters such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Hyundai Motor also suffered.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the bloodbath in the region as participants digested mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed, but the private sector RatingDog PMI accelerated to multi-year highs, while attention is also on the Two Sessions, which began today in Beijing, while the focus will be on the Work Report on Thursday.
- US equity futures retreated amid the broad sell-off across the Asia-Pac region.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 3.6% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY held on to recent spoils amid the ever-escalating Middle Eastern conflict, which continues to expand across the region, with Axios sources stating that the UAE is considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, while an Israeli senior official estimates that Saudi Arabia will attack Iran soon. Elsewhere, the data calendar for the US is very light, although ISM Services is scheduled later, while there were recent Fed speakers, in which the main message was that policy was well-positioned, and it is too soon to gauge the impact of the war in Iran on inflation.
- EUR/USD remained lacklustre and just about returned beneath the 1.1600 handle with the single currency not helped by President Trump’s threat to cut all trade with Spain, while participants look ahead to EU PPI and Unemployment data.
- GBP/USD demand is subdued with trade kept within tight parameters amid some support at the 1.3300 level and following a lack of fireworks from the recent UK Spring Statement, with the OBR downgrading its 2026 growth and inflation view.
- USD/JPY price action was choppy amid a quiet calendar for Japan and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Iranian conflict and effects on inflation, as well as the ramifications for BoJ monetary policy.
- Antipodeans were mixed with underperformance in AUD/USD despite the better-than-expected Australian GDP data for Q4, which topped forecasts, although the currency failed to benefit amid the risk-off mood and given that the data was prior to the RBA’s first rate hike in more than two years.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9124 (Prev. 6.9088).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lacked conviction following the recent two-way trade as eyes remained glued to the Middle East.
- Bund futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses, but with upside limited ahead of a Bund issuance.
- 10yr JGB futures initially gained amid a slump in stocks and briefly returned to the 133.00 level, where it then hit some resistance.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained underpinned by the escalating Middle East conflict, but are off the prior day’s highs after US President Trump confirmed the US is to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at a very reasonable price for the financial security of all maritime trade, and could also begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +5.6mln (exp. +2.3mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. -2.6mln), Gasoline -3.3mln (exp. -0.8mln), Cushing +1.5mln
- Qatar Gulf International Services noted a stoppage of certain operations and services related to energy sector activities.
- Spot gold continued its rebound from support at the USD 5,000/oz level, with prices helped by haven demand.
- Copper futures edged higher with mild tailwinds seen after China’s private sector manufacturing PMI data showed the greatest improvement in manufacturing conditions in more than five years.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin retreated overnight in choppy trade with prices reverting to beneath the USD 68,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China NPC spokesperson said they will continue to expand domestic demand this year and will foster new growth points in services consumption, while China will promote high-quality employment this year and will formulate the law on childcare services, social assistance and medical security this year.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 49.3)
- Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.4)
- Chinese NBS Composite PMI (Feb) 49.5 (Prev. 49.8)
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.1 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.3, Low. 49.1, High. 50.8)
- Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Feb) 56.7 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.3)
- Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Feb) 55.4 (Prev. 51.6)
- Australian GDP Growth Rate QQ (Q4) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. 0.4%, High. 1.0%)
- Australian GDP Growth Rate YY (Q4) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.1%, Low. 1.9%, High. 2.5%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said Russia/Ukraine is very high on his priority list.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Kazaks said he sees no need to rush the rate decision, and the February inflation reading will keep them in a cautious mood.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA//AI
S. Korea Crashes Most In Years: What Happens Next?
South Korea’s stock market (KOSPI index) experienced a sharp crash on March 3, 2026, dropping 7.2-7.24% in its worst single-day performance since August 2024 (and described in some reports as the steepest in years or on record in points terms). The index closed around 5,792 points after falling over 452 points from the prior close.This happened as the market reopened after a holiday, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—specifically risks from the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict (often referred to as Iran war risks or broader regional escalation). Oil prices surged due to fears of supply disruptions (e.g., in the Strait of Hormuz), which raised concerns about higher energy costs impacting the global economy and inflation.The selloff was broad but hit hardest in tech/semiconductor stocks (key drivers of Korea’s prior massive rally), with heavyweights like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropping around 9-10% or more. Global funds offloaded billions in Korean equities, triggering risk-off sentiment worldwide. This even spilled over, contributing to declines on Wall Street (tech/chip weakness) and other Asian markets.The KOSPI had been in an extraordinary bull run leading up to this—surging dramatically (e.g., up 50%+ early in 2026, 175% from earlier lows, topping 6,000 recently)—fueled by AI/semiconductor demand, government reforms, and foreign inflows. Warnings of a potential pullback or “blow-off top” had circulated (e.g., from analysts like ex-J.P. Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic), and this drop erased massive market cap (reports cited ~₩377-390 trillion, or roughly $270 billion+ wiped out in one day).
What happens next?
It’s too early for certainty, but several factors are in play:
- Short-term pressure — Continued Middle East escalation could keep oil elevated, sustaining risk aversion and hitting export-heavy Korea hard. Circuit breakers/sidecar halts were triggered during the plunge, showing volatility.
- Potential rebound drivers — Korea’s fundamentals (chip leadership in AI, prior reforms) remain strong. If tensions ease or oil stabilizes, dip-buying could emerge (especially after such a sharp correction from highs). Retail investors have been aggressive buyers in past dips.
- Broader risks — Higher energy costs could fuel inflation, delay rate cuts globally, and raise recession fears (some reports link this to trillions wiped out worldwide). If the conflict worsens, more downside is possible.
- Market view — This looks like a sharp correction in an otherwise strong uptrend rather than a full bear market reversal—unless geopolitics deteriorates further.
Overall, it’s a classic risk-off event driven by external shocks hitting an overextended (but fundamentally solid) market. Monitor oil prices, Middle East news, and upcoming economic data closely.
2b JAPAN
3. CHINA
CHINA/IRAN
4. European and Scandinavian affairs
UK /SCOTLAND
WHAT A NUT JOB
Edinburgh Leader Hails City Diversity After Migrant Stabbing Spree Hospitalizes Two
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke va Remix News,
In the wake of Monday’s stabbing spree by a suspect reported by one national newspaper to have been a Somali immigrant, the leader of City of Edinburgh Council has praised the capital’s diversity and said she wants the city to “stay that way.”
Cllr. Jane Meagher spoke out after a man was arrested in connection with Monday morning’s violence, which saw armed officers swarm a block of flats and nearby streets following reports of a suspect carrying two large knives.
Footage of the suspect circulated widely on social media, showing a Black man wielding large blades in both hands.
The suspect’s nationality has not yet been confirmed by Police Scotland.
At least two people were injured during the attack, with one man suffering injuries “consistent with being stabbed” and a woman sustaining a head wound. Both were taken to hospital in the Scottish capital.
In a statement issued after the suspect was taken into custody, Meagher said she was “deeply shocked” by what had happened and paid tribute to emergency responders and council staff.
“Moments like this remind us of the need to stand together – and of the importance of community spirit and tolerance,” she said.
“Edinburgh is a proud, welcoming, and diverse city. Our biggest strength lies in those who live here – people from all walks of life, cultures, and backgrounds – and we all have a part to play in making sure it stays that way,” she added.
The attack prompted a major police response, with firearms officers deployed and a large cordon placed around flats near Calder Gardens. Local schools were also locked down.
Two men told BBC Scotland they saw a man holding what appeared to be two blood-stained knives outside a shop. One said, “I got out of my car, and the guy came up to me with his hands behind his back. He said, ‘Can I speak to you?’ He had the two knives behind his back, covered in blood.”
“He started going towards the school, so I was just trying to chase him back. He was coming towards me the whole time. He walked away up to the flats,” the witness added.
At a nearby supermarket, staff and customers hid in a back room after a worker raised the alarm. Shopkeeper Asif Hussain told the Scottish Sun newspaper that an employee phoned him to report that “a guy with a knife” had entered the premises.
“I told them, ‘Keep yourself barricaded in the back,’” he said. “That’s our procedure if anything like that happens. You barricade yourself in the back of the store.
“The guy tried to force open the door but couldn’t get in. He went behind the counter and started to smash up anything he could get his hands on.”
The suspect then headed towards a nearby primary school before holing up in a high-rise apartment block.
Video footage showed him grinning at locals as they hurled abuse at him, telling him to jump.
After several hours, the man was eventually apprehended and remains in custody.
END
GERMANY
KOLBE
Crisis time for Germany; corporate tax revenues plummet!!
KOLBE
Germany’s Corporate Tax Collapse Signals Economic Crisis
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 02:00 AM
By Thomas Kolbe
The ten-minute applause of delegates at the CDU party congress still echoed when the Federal Ministry of Finance spoiled the festive mood in Stuttgart. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s (SPD) department reported a nationwide collapse of corporate tax revenue by 79 percent in January 2026 compared to last year.
At the same time, revenue from assessed income tax fell by 14.2 percent, while wage tax revenue rose by 9.1 percent.
VAT revenue grew by two percent — a reflection of persistent inflationary tendencies in the country, to which the state itself contributes significantly through its taxation policies. While price increases may be slowed by continued economic weakness, cumulative inflation continues to weigh on consumers even if the annual rate declines. Inflation is always good for the state, which is why it persists.
Corporate tax burdens corporate profits at 15 percent plus a solidarity surcharge. Last year, revenue totaled roughly €40 billion, less than one percent of GDP. Even in 2025, revenue had fallen six percent, showing a long-term negative trend.
Its temporary collapse in January will likely have no immediate fiscal consequences. Corporate tax revenue is split — 50 percent to the federal government, 42 percent to the states, and eight percent to municipalities, which appear at least partially shielded at this tax level.
However, municipalities already suffered a fiscal blow last year, especially in the centers of the industrial crisis. Cities such as Wolfsburg and Stuttgart saw sharp declines in their key tax base, the trade tax.
It is undeniable: the situation is becoming serious, and the damage from political mismanagement is now visible. For the first time, fiscal effects appear in a country where policy had long relied on ever-growing tax revenues, postponing social issues with generous spending.
January’s alarming figures allow a troubling diagnosis: the companies that generate corporate tax revenue are largely from manufacturing — the classic industrial sectors of Germany’s automotive and chemical industries. Here, in what was once the pulsing heart of the German economy — source of much of the nation’s value creation — there must have been a first economic infarction last year.
The tax revenue decline cannot be explained otherwise. Last year was suspiciously quiet amid 24,000 corporate insolvencies, hundreds of thousands of lost industrial jobs, and ongoing capital flight from Germany’s regulatory and energy nightmare toward better locations.
The government’s response to this self-inflicted problem is to expand state activity, spinning the intervention spiral faster with ever-new debt to stabilize an industry that largely no longer exists.
Friedrich Merz acted knowingly last year when he secured a special fund with credit for coming years to temporarily stabilize the collapsing economic model. The hour was understood.
Yet now, despite billions flowing into the defense sector and green transformation projects, tax revenue still collapses — highlighting the dramatic state of the private sector. An economy that is largely unviable without perpetual subsidies has now become a problem for politics itself.
No matter how high the federal government’s economic straw fire burns, the Ministry of Finance’s numbers speak clearly. Germany’s economy, after years of restructuring under green transformation and the energy crisis, has suffered such heavy damage that it is now visible at the state level — confirming what practical experience has warned for years. The shift toward a green socialism has gone too far, productive forces are overextended, bureaucracy and the ever-expanding welfare state overstretched.
Germany faces difficult years ahead. It must negotiate how to proceed amid ever-scarcer public funds. The state quota now exceeds 50 percent and continues to rise under federal policy. The bureaucracy and welfare system expand five to six percent annually, demanding ever-greater contributions from society, further weakening productive forces — the poverty spiral accelerates.
A recalibration of the welfare state to match economic realities will soon be unavoidable. Until then, the illusion of prosperity is kept alive by credit.
What is to be expected now? The state will increasingly draw on citizens’ resources to close the growing budget gaps. The corporate tax collapse was likely no anomaly, and it will become ever more expensive to use sectors like defense to mask the collapse of German industry and protect the labor market.
Debates over raising inheritance tax, reintroducing wealth tax, and potential special levies on the rich last year were preparatory. Now, it is serious.
The dead-end German politics has led this country down is brittle. Beneath it yawns an abyss, now revealed in its full depth in Ministry of Finance numbers.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIR
RUSSIA/IRAN
CHANCES? ZERO
Korybko
What Are The Prospects Of Putin Mediating An End To The Iran War?
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Russia is the only country in the world that’s on decent terms with Iran, the US, Israel, and the Gulf Kingdoms, thus making Putin the only person who could potentially mediate an end to the war.
Putin spoke with the leaders of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia (de facto since he spoke with Mohammed bin Salman) on Monday, all of whose countries have been attacked by Iran on the pretext that the US military facilities on their territories are being used in the war. The Kremlin readouts that were cited above all sound the same due to them complaining about being attacked, Putin sympathizing with them without condemning Iran, and then floating suggestions that he could mediate an end to it.
Many observers have been under the false impression that Russia is Iran’s military ally, the perception of which proliferated for the reasons explained here, namely due to the alternative reality crafted over the years by top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” influencers for whatever their reasons may have been. The objectively existing reality is that Russia carefully balances between the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” on the one side and Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms, the UAE being Russia’s main partner, on the other.
Having contextualized Putin’s four calls, it’s now time to briefly review the goals of Iran, the US and Israel, and the Gulf Kingdoms in this conflict.
Iran only wants to survive the onslaught without regime change, demilitarization, or “Balkanization” while inflicting damage on its regional adversaries and their shared US ally as punishment for the joint US-Israeli war against it.
The US and Israel, meanwhile, want to carry out regime change, demilitarize Iran, and restore its pre-revolutionary role as their ally.
As for the Gulf Kingdoms, they don’t want Iran to attack them anymore due to the extreme fragility of their economies, but some now believe that they’re coming around to more actively supporting Iran’s demilitarization at the very least after what it just did to them.
Russia’s interests are more aligned with Iran’s this time around, though not out of political solidarity, just pragmatism; it wants the Iranian state preserved, the regional balance of power maintained to a degree, and Russian investments protected.
These interests are the polar opposite of the US and Israel’s but, apart from maintaining the regional balance of power to a degree, are arguably acceptable to the Gulf Kingdoms which want an end to hostilities as soon as possible out of fear that more Iranian attacks could destroy their fragile economies.
This explains why they all agreed to talk to Putin on Monday in the hopes that he can discover what concessions the Iranian leadership with whom he remains in close contact might be willing to make.
The Gulf Kingdoms would likely support peace given how degraded the Iranian military has already become, but the US and Israel would likely only accept at minimum an end to Iran’s nuclear program and enforceable guarantees that it won’t rebuild its armed forces, especially not their missile capabilities.
Depending on how much they degrade its military and whether certain “Balkanization” scenarios arise, they might also demand “no-fly zones” over the Azeri- and/or Kurdish-majority regions of the country.
Putin’s task is therefore to devise a reasonable set of compromises that would be acceptable for Iran. Even if these terms aren’t fully acceptable to the US and/or Israel, so long as they’re acceptable to the Gulf Kingdoms across whose airspace and from whose territory many of the US’ attacks against Iran are occurring, they might withdraw the aforesaid permission from the US out of desperation to save themselves from Iran. That could coerce the US into either ending the war or ruining ties with them.
TBN ISRAEL
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
IDF destroys Qadr missiles at Isfahan, pushing toward hunting down 400 ballistic missile launchers
Isfahan has both nuclear sites and ballistic missile sites and has been a repeat target both in June 2025 and the current conflict.
Satellite image shows a close up view of destroyed buildings at Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, after it was hit by US airstrikes, in Isfahan, Iran, June 22, 2025.(photo credit: MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBMARCH 4, 2026 12:06Updated: MARCH 4, 2026 12:42
The IDF on Wednesday announced that it had destroyed Qadr-class ballistic missiles and their launch platforms at Isfahan in Iran.
The Qadr 110 is the most advanced type of Qadr missile (there are several categories of Qadr), and is a two-stage missile that includes a solid-fuel engine to shorten launch preparations, which makes it potentially harder to strike prior to launch.
Its range is estimated between 1,500 and 2,000 kilometers, one of Iran’s longest-range ballistic missiles, and can easily strike anywhere in Israel.
Former pro-Palestinian activist from Stanford explains why she left the movement
In June 2025, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed that it had used the Qadr against Israel during that conflict.
Experts believe that the Qadr design has the potential to be further developed to eventually be used for further ranges of up to 5,000 kilometers and possibly as an anti-space satellite.
Isfahan has both nuclear sites and ballistic missile sites and has been a repeat target both in June 2025 and in the current conflict.
IDF continues to dismantle Iranian missile launch capabilities
Following the IDF revelation on Tuesday night that not only have several dozen missile launchers been destroyed, but over 300 have been neutralized (likely meaning damaged or caved in by bombings), the latest attacks could start pushing the IDF toward neutralizing closer to 400 launchers.
In June 2024, Iran only had around 400 launchers, of which over 200 were destroyed.
However, IDF sources said that Iran has rebuilt new launchers at an impressive rate since June 2025.
END
Some Gulf countries are already fighting against Iran, IDF says
Foreign reports have indicated that the Saudis, the UAE, Qatar, and possibly others may already have attacked Iran or have expressed interest in doing so.
Debris lies scattered in the aftermath of a strike on a police station, in Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2026(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBMARCH 4, 2026 13:00Updated: MARCH 4, 2026 13:01
The IDF said on Wednesday that some Gulf countries are already in the fight against Iran.
IDF sources would not identify which countries or their different levels of involvement.
However, foreign reports have indicated that the Saudis, the UAE, Qatar, and possibly others may already have attacked Iran or have expressed interest in doing so.
Former pro-Palestinian activist from Stanford explains why she left the movement
Moreover, the IDF said that from familiarity with the Trump administration and top US defense officials, there is no current sense of pressure to artificially shorten the war due to outside pressures, such as domestic American political criticism.
Polls have shown 75% of Americans are unhappy with the war, and the US Congress is expected soon to vote on whether to restrain Trump’s authority to continue the war, though the vote may be symbolic, since even if it passes by a slim majority, the US president could veto it short of a two-thirds super majority.
Next, the IDF said that over 1,000 American soldiers are physically present in Israel to assist with joint war coordination with the IDF.
There have been around 4,00-5,000 telephone calls, cockpit radio communications, and other communications between Israeli and US officials every day since the start of the war in a stunning, unprecedented level of coordination.
According to the IDF, there is also constant communication “in English” with other countries in the region under the CENTCOM umbrella.
The IDF complimented America on having 10 times the level of refueling capacity compared to Israel, allowing them to reuse aircraft more rapidly for additional air strike sorties.
Breaking down military responsibility, Israel has mostly handled western Iran, parts of Tehran, and some of central Iran, while the US has mostly handled southern Iran, parts of Tehran, and Israel hopes eventually to handle eastern Iran.
IDF says that Trump will not cut the war short
In addition, the IDF said that it does not believe US President Donald Trump will cut the current war short in the coming days.
END
this is the second war ship to be knocked out. Later they hit their no 1 war ship the Soleimani
(zerohedge)
World At War: Iranian Warship Reportedly Sunk Off Sri Lanka In Submarine Attack
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 07:45 AM
The latest escalation, with at least ten tankers burning in or around the Strait of Hormuz, an overnight kamikaze drone boat strike on a Russian shadow-fleet LNG tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, and the reported sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka in what local officials described as a submarine attack, only suggests to any seasoned military strategist that the conflicts tied to the Middle East and Eastern Europe are expanding beyond their traditional theaters.
Reuters reports that Iran’s Navy Mowj-class frigate Dena was sunk by a US submarine off Sri Lanka’s Indian Ocean coast. According to a source in Sri Lanka’s navy and defense ministry, the submarine attack left 32 personnel rescued by Sri Lankan authorities, while 101 remain missing.
Defense sources explained to the media outlet that it was unclear who attacked the Iranian warship.
Here’s more from Reuters:
The navy received a distress call from an Iranian ship and informed the Sri Lankan air force, and both launched a search and rescue operation, the spokesman said.
Sri Lankan forces were focused on saving lives on the Iranian ship and will investigate the cause of the incident later, he said.
Sri Lankan forces had also not observed any other ship or aircraft in the area of the incident, he added.
“We are hopeful we can rescue more people and will continue (operations) until we are sure,” he said.
Related:
- Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Boat Blew Up Shadow LNG Tanker In Mediterranean
- Trump Gives Assurances To Tankers Passing Through Hormuz
Let’s not forget that US forces in Operation Epic Fury have destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian naval fleet in the port of Bandar Abbas, while Ali Shamkhani, an admiral in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed by an airstrike. The US-Israeli strikes have reportedly wiped out Iran’s air force and navy.
“They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection; that’s been knocked out,” President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon during a news conference at the White House with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
h
Without a credible air force or navy, the IRGC’s ability to sustain any meaningful blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be limited. However, its capacity to wage asymmetric warfare through drones is still unsettling to shipowners, which helps explain why President Trump has offered insurance backstops and naval escorts for tankers transiting the narrow waterway.
END
IRAN/USA ISRAEL
Trump Floats Backing Anti-Tehran Insurgency As Alternative To US Boots On Ground
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 04:40 PM
It’s only day four of the US-Israeli ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and there’s already talks of a ground war and insurgency in Iran.
Of course, the White House is still saying it doesn’t plan to send US boots on the ground (though is ‘not ruling it out’), while also proclaiming the US wants regime change in Tehran, and the dismantling of the Islamic Republic as a state and system is a formal objective.
But as the Bush Necons learned in Iraq, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. An air war according to even the CIA and top defense officials won’t be enough to effect regime change and state dismantling, so a ground operation is needed.
This dilemma is precisely what has led President Trump to float a new possible plan, per the Wall Street Journal:
President Trump is open to supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms to dislodge the regime, U.S. officials said, as he continues to mull several options publicly and privately about who should succeed the country’s fallen leader.
Let the etho-sectarian nightmarish hellscape violence begin? Yes, Trump is already speaking in terms of peeling off ethnic minorities in Iran to create an insurgency targeting Tehran.
“Trump spoke Sunday with Kurdish leaders, officials said, and is continuing to engage other local officials who may leverage Tehran’s weakness to make gains,” the report continues. “The Kurds have a sizable force along the Iraq-Iran border, and Israel has bombed positions in western Iran, leading to speculation that it is paving a path for a Kurdish advance.”
Again, this is recipe for death squads and score-settling, given also the chance that Iranian authorities and loyalist paramilitaries – should they perceive the Kurds to be in rebellion – will then likely retaliate wholescale.
“President Trump has spoken with many regional partners,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, though without revealing whether any plan has been confirmed.
“Officials said Trump hasn’t made a final decision on the matter, including whether he would provide arms, training or intelligence support to antiregime groups,” WSJ adds..
The report comes after Trump urged the Iranian people to rise up and “take over your government”. He went on to claim that “America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.”
But what groups would be willing to work with the US? It already appears clear that the White House lacks understanding of the internal dynamics of Iran, and has woefully underestimated how things would go after killing the Ayatollah.
There’s also historic Sunni minority populations along the southwest border regions of Iran. This would potentially mean the US once again backing Sunni Al Qaeda insurgents, as it did in Syria. Another top contender, probably already involved in the war via the Mossad and CIA, is the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) – based largely outside of Iran.
“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump has admitted to reporters. “And now we have another group, they may be dead also. Pretty soon we’re not gonna know anybody.”
END
Trump Admits Strikes Killed Iran’s ‘Future Leaders’; CIA Station, Gulf Embassies Come Under Attack
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 12:45 PM
Here are the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict:
- State Department securing military aircraft, charter flights to get Americans out of Middle East
- Iran International is claiming (unverified) Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba Khamenei as new Ayatollah under heavy IRGC pressure to ensure hardline continuity and regime stability after his father’s death
- Drone hits CIA station in Saudi Arabia, also reportedly a consulate in Dubai. WaPo: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East.
- IAEA’s Grossi says there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb; Iran’s large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern
- Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime. Future insurgency fragmentation and Iraq-style nightmare coming to Iran?
- Trump tries to articular war justification: says if we have a little high oil prices, could be for a little while, but they will drop, and could even be below the levels before, but that he ‘had to’ act or else Iran would have ‘used nukes’. Claims Israel didn’t force America’s hand. Admits leadership vacuum.
- US to offer military protection to ships/insurance in the Strait of Hormuz
- The Pentagon has released Operation Epic Fury’s objectives; 1- Demilitarization of Iran: destruction of its missile forces, production facilities, and naval fleet 2- Elimination of the terrorist regime 3- Protection of the United States from current and future threats 4- Ensuring that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons
- UAE mulling joining US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Saudis too, to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on their countries.
- The American Embassy in Riyadh has been hit in another drone attack, with WSJ reporting it was struck twice Tuesday, resulting in damage to the roof. More embassies across region are shuttering, including the US Embassy in Beirut.
- President Trump mulling arming anti-Tehran militias. But he hasn’t decided yet while urging Iranians to rise up and be Washington’s ‘boots on the ground.’
- The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News. “Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader.”
- US-Israel bombing is expanding inside Iran. Explosions heard in the northwestern cities of Tabriz and Urmia, as the capital no longer the only focus.
- Iraq’s crude oil output is being significantly curtailed. An update from Iraq specifies a shutdown of 460,000 bpd at West Qurna 2 and a cut of 700,000 bpd at Rumaila, while warning that more than 3 million bpd could be forced offline in the coming days if tanker access remains limited.
- Export crude bottlenecks are developing across Iraq. Storage at southern export terminals is nearing critical capacity because tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed. Iraq has also halted most Kurdistan-to-Turkey exports via Ceyhan, leaving only about 50,000 bpd for domestic use.
- Iranian retaliation expanded on Tuesday, with Gulf states’ energy infrastructure hit by multiple drones. This included a drone strike on Fujairah in the UAE, a key bunkering and crude-loading hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a drone strike at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
- The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran is intensifying. Strikes are said to be hitting major targets, including state media, military command sites, and leadership compounds, with the reported Iranian death toll rising to 787 since the start of Operation Epic Fury.
- The war is spreading into a broader regional conflict. Israel has expanded attacks into Lebanon, including renewed strikes on Beirut and a ground move into the south, while regional actors such as Qatar and possibly Saudi Arabia are portrayed as being drawn more directly into the conflict.
- France sending aircraft carrier to Mediterranean, says Macron
* * *
Update(12:45ET): To quote Rumsfeld there are many “unknowns” as the Iraq Iran war continues to go regional, but a Tuesday Oval Office press conference saw Trump try and articulate war justifications. A quick summary:
President Trump spoke at the White House alongside visiting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, declaring the military campaign against Iran a decisive success. “We’re doing very well,” Trump said.
“They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection — that’s been knocked out,” he stated, adding that Iran’s radar systems and “just about everything’s been knocked out.”
Pressed in the Oval Office on why there was no evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East before Saturday’s strikes, Trump said, “Well, because it happened all very quickly.”
“I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel,” he said.
When asked whether Israel had “forced” his hand, Trump replied, “No, actually, I might have forced their hand.”
Addressing speculation about Iran’s future leadership, Trump referenced Reza Pahlavi. “He seems like a very nice person. But it seems to me that someone from within might be better” to take over, he said.
Trump acknowledged the risks of regime change. “I guess the worst case would be, we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right?” he said. “That could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”
Defending the timing of the strike, Trump said, “You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.”
And finally: very GW Bush style…
If we hadn’t attacked Iran, it would have already started a nuclear war with many countries, because “they are pure evil and sick in the head” – Trump.
* * *
Update(11:15ET): American or regional officials have confirmed that the US Embassy in Riyadh has come under drone attack twice on Tuesday resulting in the roof suffering a partial collapse.
Part of the building is engulfed in smoke, with staff said to be sheltering in place. An earlier State Dept statement said: “Embassy Riyadh has been struck by two UAVs that hit the roof and the perimeter of the chancery.” The cable added: “Post is sheltering in place and reported no injuries.” Initial reports say no casualties, according to a person familiar with the incident. Meanwhile…
Saudi Arabia condemns ‘flagrant’ Iranian drone attack on US Embassy in Riyadh – Al Arabiya English
Scenes from on the ground in Tehran:
* * *
Update(0920ET): In a massive though not completely unexpected development, Iraq has shut down 460,000 barrels per day of production at the West Qurna 2 field, Iraqi oil officials told Reuters. Officials warned the country will be forced to cut more than 3 million barrels per day within days if oil tankers cannot move freely and access loading terminals, as confirmed in Bloomberg.
On Tuesday, Iraq reduced output at the Rumaila oil field by 700,000 barrels per day. Rumaila is the second-largest oil field in the world, and storage levels at southern export terminals have reached critical capacity due to disruptions and slowdowns in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to local officials.
Importantly, Iraq also halted crude exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the key pipeline to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Roughly 200,000 barrels per day have been shut in as producers cut output amid escalating regional conflict. Only about 50,000 barrels per day are now being produced for domestic use.
Energy infrastructure in northern Kurdistan has faced repeated attacks during prior unrest. And now with major fields throttling output and exports constrained, oil prices are surging.
Targeting Gulf production from across water in Iran….
* * *
Israeli and US forces pressed forward with their assault on Iran, striking targets across the country, including Iran’s state broadcaster and central military command centers, as the official death toll has climbed to 787 Iranians killed since the start of the Trump-ordered Operation Epic Fury. The US has sustained at least six troop deaths and several more seriously wounded.
Fears that this could open to a broader multi-front war appear to be coming to reality, as at the same time Israel escalated operations on a second front, intensifying airstrikes on Lebanon and launching a new ground incursion into the south. Beirut is once again under Israeli bombs, after Israel accused Hezbollah of firing rockets on the north. What’s more is that Kann News is citing a senior Israeli official as follows: We assess that Saudi Arabia will attack Iran soon after it was attacked yesterday. The war is expanding.
The conflict has continued to spread across the Gulf. Saudi authorities said two drones struck the US Embassy in Riyadh, igniting a small fire and causing minor damage. However, there’s been surprisingly little information or video to come out of this major incident.
Qatar has formally joined the war on the US-Israeli side, having already said it took out a pair of Iranian jets. The tiny oil and gas rich GCC country Foreign Ministry stated that “the two Iranian planes shot down by Qatar yesterday were flying toward Doha and were warned before being shot down. Qatar is searching for the pilots.”
Iran has continued its retaliation by targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf, driving global oil and gas prices sharply higher. As we reported previously, Qatar’s state-owned petroleum company suspended all LNG production after two of its facilities were hit.
The status of the vital Strait of Hormuz remains a big unknown, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announcing that the vital oil transit chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption is now “closed”. While the consensus is that after the US blew up all or most of the Iranian Navy’s vessels, it doesn’t have the maritime power to effect a blockage, the IRGC can certainly wreak havoc through its drone and missile arsenal.
END
ISRAEL /IRAN/USA
Trump: Iran ‘running out’ of missiles, launch sites, as strikes ‘decimate’ regime’s capacity
As the US’s Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion continue to pummel the Iranian regime, Trump stated that the regime is being “decimated.”
US President Donald Trump attends a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House in Washington, DC, US, March 2, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/JONATHAN ERNST)ByGOLDIE KATZMARCH 3, 2026 22:13Updated: MARCH 3, 2026 22:53
Iran is running out of missile launchers and areas to launch missiles from, United States President Donald Trump claimed in an interview with Politico on Tuesday.
As the US’s Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion continue to pummel the Iranian regime, Trump stated that the regime is being “decimated.”
While he predicted that Iran would “keep lobbing missiles for a while,” he asserted that “they’re running out and they’re running out of areas to shoot them, because they’re being decimated.”
US has unlimited ammunition, Trump says
The US, on the other hand, is not facing the same issue with ammunition stockpiles, Trump added.
“We have unlimited of the middle- and upper middle- ammunition and things. We save it, and we build it,” he said, adding that defense companies are under emergency orders and are “on a rapid tear to build the various things” needed by the US military.
Advertisement
While the necessary ammunition is being made quickly, according to Trump, he additionally asserted that the US’s large stockpile is in part due to former US president Joe Biden not using any.
“We have unlimited, as stupid as [former US president Joe] Biden was, he didn’t use it,” he told Politico.
The IDF revealed on Tuesday that since the start of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, around 300 Iranian missile launchers have been destroyed.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
END
IRAN
Israel Claims to Strike Iranian Nuclear Weapons Lab
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 10:32 PM
Iran’s nuclear complexes are seeing renewed attacks for both new buildings constructed since the 12-Day War, as well as long-existing infrastructure previously left alone. From what can be seen in recent satellite imagery, the U.S. and Israel are quickly finishing what they started last year.
The IDF announced it has struck a covert underground compound outside Tehran where regime scientists were quietly designing key components for a nuclear bomb.
The target, “Min-Zadai”, was the new facility for SPND scientists after last year’s Operation Rising Lion turned their old facilities into craters.
SPND (Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research) is the Iranian Ministry of Defense’s R&D arm. It’s the successor to the AMAD Project, handling the weaponization side of nuclear power. The AMAD Project (also known as the AMAD Plan) was Iran’s highly secretive, structured nuclear weapons development program launched in the late 1990s and run directly by the Ministry of Defense. It was led by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh until its reported halt in late 2003 under international pressure.
Satellite imagery from today, March 3, 2026, and available ground footage posted to X by (@Vahid), confirms the destruction of what is suspected to be an engineering laboratory-type building in an area north of the main Mojdeh site, which was heavily attacked durng the June 2025… pic.twitter.com/NSO3Rx8tYB— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) March 3, 2026
The Institute for Science and International Security (“The Good ISIS”) used satellite imagery and a geolocated strike video to confirm a large engineering laboratory building just north of the Mojdeh site was destroyed. A brand-new building that was externally finished only in early 2025. ISIS states the complex, never visited by IAEA inspectors, has long housed multiple SPND teams quietly advancing nuclear-weapons-related R&D near Malek Ashtar University. The targeted structure was assessed as still active, which is exactly why Israel chose it.
There’s no commentary provided by the IAEA yet, and based on their previous lack of discussion on the site, there likely won’t be any assessment of the area by the UN organization. Without their involvement, it’ll be difficult to assess if any nuclear material was destroyed in the strike. All things considered, the hazardous impact is localized if there was material on site, and is more likely to be a chemical hazard than a radiological hazard.
end
strong move by Trump
CIA Moves To Arm Kurdish Forces To Foment Govt Collapse In Iran: Officials
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 06:25 AM
Here are the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict:
- CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say: CNN
- State Department securing military aircraft, charter flights to get Americans out of Middle East
- Iran International is claiming (unverified) Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba Khamenei as new Ayatollah under heavy IRGC pressure to ensure hardline continuity and regime stability after his father’s death
- Drone hits CIA station in Saudi Arabia, also reportedly a consulate in Dubai. WaPo: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East.
- IAEA’s Grossi says there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb; Iran’s large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern
- Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime. Future insurgency fragmentation and Iraq-style nightmare coming to Iran?
- Trump tries to articular war justification: says if we have a little high oil prices, could be for a little while, but they will drop, and could even be below the levels before, but that he ‘had to’ act or else Iran would have ‘used nukes’. Claims Israel didn’t force America’s hand. Admits leadership vacuum.
- US to offer military protection to ships/insurance in the Strait of Hormuz
- The Pentagon has released Operation Epic Fury’s objectives; 1- Demilitarization of Iran: destruction of its missile forces, production facilities, and naval fleet 2- Elimination of the terrorist regime 3- Protection of the United States from current and future threats 4- Ensuring that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons
- UAE mulling joining US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Saudis too, to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on their countries.
- The American Embassy in Riyadh has been hit in another drone attack, with WSJ reporting it was struck twice Tuesday, resulting in damage to the roof. More embassies across region are shuttering, including the US Embassy in Beirut.
- President Trump mulling arming anti-Tehran militias. But he hasn’t decided yet while urging Iranians to rise up and be Washington’s ‘boots on the ground.’
- The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News. “Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader.”
- US-Israel bombing is expanding inside Iran. Explosions heard in the northwestern cities of Tabriz and Urmia, as the capital no longer the only focus.
- Iraq’s crude oil output is being significantly curtailed. An update from Iraq specifies a shutdown of 460,000 bpd at West Qurna 2 and a cut of 700,000 bpd at Rumaila, while warning that more than 3 million bpd could be forced offline in the coming days if tanker access remains limited.
- Export crude bottlenecks are developing across Iraq. Storage at southern export terminals is nearing critical capacity because tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed. Iraq has also halted most Kurdistan-to-Turkey exports via Ceyhan, leaving only about 50,000 bpd for domestic use.
- Iranian retaliation expanded on Tuesday, with Gulf states’ energy infrastructure hit by multiple drones. This included a drone strike on Fujairah in the UAE, a key bunkering and crude-loading hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a drone strike at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
- The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran is intensifying. Strikes are said to be hitting major targets, including state media, military command sites, and leadership compounds, with the reported Iranian death toll rising to 787 since the start of Operation Epic Fury.
- The war is spreading into a broader regional conflict. Israel has expanded attacks into Lebanon, including renewed strikes on Beirut and a ground move into the south, while regional actors such as Qatar and possibly Saudi Arabia are portrayed as being drawn more directly into the conflict.
- France sending aircraft carrier to Mediterranean, says Macron
* * *
Update(1940ET): This is moving very fast, and even though the White House claimed there will be no ground war (yet), Trump is looking for a few good proxies to use to bring down the Islamic Republic.
“The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN,” fresh late Tuesday reports say. “The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, the sources said.”
Hours ago we published: Trump Floats Backing Anti-Tehran Insurgency As Alternative To US Boots On Ground. What groups would be willing to work with the US against Tehran? It already appears clear that the White House lacks understanding of the internal dynamics of Iran, and has woefully underestimated how things would go after killing the Ayatollah.
Apart from the Kurds, there’s also historic Sunni minority populations along the southwest border regions of Iran. This would potentially mean the US once again backing Sunni Al Qaeda insurgents, as it did in Syria. Another top contender, probably already involved in the war via the Mossad and CIA, is the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) – based largely outside of Iran.
On the Kurds, CNN notes:
Iranian Kurdish armed groups have thousands of forces operating along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Several of the groups have released public statements since the beginning of the war hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been striking Kurdish groups and said on Tuesday that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones.
This invites possible Turkish cross-border intervention in the north, given Turkey has long warned against any and all Kurdish armed insurgencies.
Update(12:45ET): To quote Rumsfeld there are many “unknowns” as the Iraq Iran war continues to go regional, but a Tuesday Oval Office press conference saw Trump try and articulate war justifications. A quick summary:
President Trump spoke at the White House alongside visiting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, declaring the military campaign against Iran a decisive success. “We’re doing very well,” Trump said.
“They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection — that’s been knocked out,” he stated, adding that Iran’s radar systems and “just about everything’s been knocked out.”
Pressed in the Oval Office on why there was no evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East before Saturday’s strikes, Trump said, “Well, because it happened all very quickly.”
“I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel,” he said.
When asked whether Israel had “forced” his hand, Trump replied, “No, actually, I might have forced their hand.”
Addressing speculation about Iran’s future leadership, Trump referenced Reza Pahlavi. “He seems like a very nice person. But it seems to me that someone from within might be better” to take over, he said.
Trump acknowledged the risks of regime change. “I guess the worst case would be, we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right?” he said. “That could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”
Defending the timing of the strike, Trump said, “You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.”
And finally: very GW Bush style…
If we hadn’t attacked Iran, it would have already started a nuclear war with many countries, because “they are pure evil and sick in the head” – Trump.
IRAN
seems that Russia is not so happy that way the war is being played out
(zerohedge)
Tankers Burn From Strait Of Hormuz To Mediterranean Sea Amid Spillover War Risks
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 08:30 PM
Times of Malta reports that the Russian-flagged LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, identified as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, suffered an explosion while transiting the Mediterranean Sea between Malta and Libya.
Multiple sources told the local newspaper that Arctic Metagaz experienced a “series of explosions” and that it “was a case of deflagration; indications are that there was a huge explosion on board.”
The outlet cited the UK-based global security risk firm EOS Risk Group, which said the explosion is due to a “drone attack.”
In a separate report, Reuters also says the LNG tanker may have been hit by a drone, with Ukraine suspected of carrying out the operation.
Reuters recently reported that three crude oil tankers have been damaged by blasts in the Mediterranean area, with the cause unknown.
Last December, Ukraine hit the Russian-linked tanker Qendil with kamikaze drones in the Mediterranean, marking the first shadow fleet tanker strike outside the Black Sea. Moscow has claimed Ukraine hit one of its tankers off West Africa, as well.
The world is seemingly at war, with the US-Iran conflict choking the critical maritime Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC has hit numerous oil and gas infrastructure targets in Gulf states and multiple tankers in the narrow waterway.
On Tuesday afternoon, President Trump announced that the US government will provide insurance for “ALL Maritime Trade” through the US Development Finance Corporation and will provide naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the waterway remains open. This will be a huge relief for China.
From the Strait of Hormuz to the Mediterranean, numerous tankers are on fire …
… as the world seemingly seems to be accelerating toward major conflict.
END
Iran Latest: Tehran Makes ‘Secret’ CIA Outreach; Hegseth Declares ‘Winning’ Despite US Comms Infrastructure Severe Damage
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 08:55 AM
On Day 5 of the Trump-ordered Operation Epic Furry targeting Iran for regime change, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth declared the US is “winning” against Iran, signaling that additional American forces are en route and vowing Washington will take “all the time it needs” to secure ‘victory’. But the instances of blowback are piling up at rapid pace.
This comes after President Trump himself suggested an open-ended timeline, but expressed that four or five weeks should do the job. Americans, however, might recall similar pledges were made at the start of the Iraq war, which end up being a 20 year occupation and bloody quagmire. Recall that in 2002, Bush’s then Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared of impending Iraq operations: “Five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t going to last any longer than that…It won’t be a World War III.”
Iranian state media is reporting that the death toll from U.S.-Israeli strikes has climbed to at least 1,045. US losses stand at (at least) six service members killed, with several critically wounded, but CENTCOM has yet to issue a new Wednesday casualty update. It also announced that a planned late-night ceremony in Tehran honoring Iran’s slain supreme leader was abruptly postponed, officially due to “logistical issues”.
Two major developments impacting markets (also as the question of the Supreme Leader’s successor lingers):
- Iran quietly reached out to the CIA a day after the attacks began to discuss ending the conflict, the NYT reported.
- The funeral of its late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which was to begin later today, has been postponed.
The regional air war, including Iran’s cross-Gulf retaliation has meanwhile intensified: Qatar says it intercepted 10 drones and two cruise missiles fired from Iran, while the UAE reports downing three missiles and 121 drones. But most alarming for the prospect of this war spreading is that Turkey confirmed a ballistic missile launched from Iran was destroyed by NATO air defenses over the eastern Mediterranean before entering Turkish airspace. Debris reportedly fell near Dortyol with no casualties.
Ankara warned: “We remind you that we reserve the right to respond to any hostile act towards our country,” while urging all sides to avoid further escalation. This suggests that NATO, despite Mark Rutte having said NATO will not participate, could eventually enter the conflict.
In Lebanon, a government minister told Al Jazeera that 65,000 people have registered in shelters following intensified Israeli strikes, which has seen the capital of Beirut getting pummeled by Israeli jets once again.
Across the region, escalation continues to spillover. At least ten tankers are reportedly burning in or near the Strait of Hormuz, a kamikaze drone boat strike targeted a Russian shadow-fleet LNG tanker in the Mediterranean, and an Iranian vessel sank off Sri Lanka’s coast in what local officials described as a submarine attack.
Also, the US has closed embassies in three countries, reduced diplomatic staffing across the region, and urged Americans to leave. The UAE announced new emergency air corridors to assist evacuations, and a belated State Dept evacuation of US citizens from the region is currently underway.
According to The Washington Post, a suspected Iranian drone strike hit the CIA station inside the US Embassy compound in Riyadh. While U.S. and Saudi officials confirmed two drones struck the embassy grounds, they did not publicly disclose the CIA facility was among the targets.
The NY Times is detailing, with satellite and open-source image analysis, that the Pentagon’s sophisticated radar and comms infrastructure around the Persian Gulf is being steadily reduced and decimated by Iran’s response:
Iranian strikes conducted over the weekend and on Monday damaged structures that are part of or near communication and radar systems on at least seven U.S. military sites across the Middle East, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery and verified videos.
Visuals show damage on or close to mechanisms used to track incoming ballistic missiles, satellite dishes and radomes, which are weatherproof covers that protect sensitive equipment used by forces to communicate over long distances.
U.S. military communication infrastructure is highly classified, making it difficult to determine which exact systems may have been affected. But the targeted locations appear to indicate Iran was aiming to disrupt the U.S. military’s ability to communicate and coordinate. Iran has attacked the U.S. military’s communication capacity as recently as last June, when it struck a Qatari base it hit again over the weekend.
Strikes potentially affecting these systems also occurred on military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Inside Iran, an attack on a manufacturing site in Alvand wounded 23 people, with six killed across Qazvin province, according to local officials.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said satellite imagery shows “no damage to facilities containing nuclear material in Iran and therefore no radiological release risk at this time.” It added: “Near Isfahan nuclear site, damage is visible at two buildings. No additional impact detected at Natanz… and no impact at other nuclear sites, including Bushehr NPP.”
Israeli officials are framing the war as a leadership decapitation campaign, arguing Iran should be treated like a non-state actor. Israeli military sources now expect at least two more weeks of bombardment aimed at “softening the ground” for potential internal unrest in Tehran. Israel and the US are already warning that they will take out the next Ayatollah.
The US Joint Chiefs announced in a Pentagon briefing with Hegseth stands ready to strike deeper into Iranian territory, and that forces are shifting to from large to more precision strikes across Iran.
US Department of War issued the below map showing “The first 100 hours” of the operation:
Israel and the US are noticeably blowing up border installations and striking IRGC and government facilities particularly in places where Iran’s minority Kurdish population is dominant. This appears to be in preparation for a reported CIA-Israel plan to back the Kurds who are being prodded to foment civil war in Iran.
This suggests some covert planners have a Syria/Libya sectarian divide plan in mind to further weaken and destabilize the Islamic Republic, also as Washington and Tel Aviv’s proxy ‘boots on the ground’ in the fight.
US officials are skeptical of either Iran’s or the US’ willingness to off-ramp in the short term, relating to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry reportedly reaching out to the CIA indirectly a day after the conflict started with an offer to discuss terms, NYT reports.
However…
Meanwhile some Democratic lawmakers blasted Trump’s justification for the strikes, warning the US risks sliding toward a ground invasion and an “open-ended engagement with no end in sight.”
Israel continues to get hit hard, as Iranian ballistic missiles – and reportedly some hypersonics – continue to slip past anti-air defenses. As a result, Israel’s Finance Ministry estimates economic damage from the war could reach some 9 billion shekels ($2.9 billion) per week.
Meanwhile, there’s been widespread criticisms and questions surrounding the administration’s emphasis on protecting Israel, and all the while Congress has yet to formally debate or vote on war, per the Constitution…
Clearly, what was initially touted by Washington as an attack that would be ‘limited’ is is now metastasizing across multiple theaters – including Gulf energy routes, Eastern Mediterranean shipping lanes, and NATO airspace – with both sides signaling they are prepared for a long fight.
END
IRAN/USA SUBMARINE
big knock out!!
Soleimani-Class Warship Sunk Near Strait Of Hormuz; Second Iranian Ship Hit Off Sri Lanka
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 08:44 AM
Update (0844ET):
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that “America is winning” as Operation Epic Fury continues to neutralize IRGC high-value assets across Iran. This is the second news conference at the Department of War since the operation began on Saturday morning.
Hegseth also provided an update on the IRGC Navy’s IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, Soleimani-class corvette, that sank overnight, saying, “Last night, we sunk their prize ship, the Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice.”
Here’s footage of the warship:
However, Hegseth did not provide an update on the Mowj-class frigate Dena that sank off the coast of Sri Lanka in what local officials described as a submarine attack. We’re sure the Trump administration will boast about that hit in the near future.
* * *
The latest escalation, with at least ten tankers burning in or around the Strait of Hormuz, an overnight kamikaze drone boat strike on a Russian shadow-fleet LNG tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, and the reported sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka in what local officials described as a submarine attack, only suggests to any seasoned military strategist that the conflicts tied to the Middle East and Eastern Europe are expanding beyond their traditional theaters.
Reuters reports that Iran’s Navy Mowj-class frigate Dena was sunk by a US submarine off Sri Lanka’s Indian Ocean coast. According to a source in Sri Lanka’s navy and defense ministry, the submarine attack left 32 personnel rescued by Sri Lankan authorities, while 101 remain missing.
Defense sources explained to the media outlet that it was unclear who attacked the Iranian warship.
Here’s more from Reuters:
The navy received a distress call from an Iranian ship and informed the Sri Lankan air force, and both launched a search and rescue operation, the spokesman said.
Sri Lankan forces were focused on saving lives on the Iranian ship and will investigate the cause of the incident later, he said.
Sri Lankan forces had also not observed any other ship or aircraft in the area of the incident, he added.
“We are hopeful we can rescue more people and will continue (operations) until we are sure,” he said.
Related:
- Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Boat Blew Up Shadow LNG Tanker In Mediterranean
- Trump Gives Assurances To Tankers Passing Through Hormuz
Let’s not forget that US forces in Operation Epic Fury have destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian naval fleet in the port of Bandar Abbas, while Ali Shamkhani, an admiral in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed by an airstrike. The US-Israeli strikes have reportedly wiped out Iran’s air force and navy.
“They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection; that’s been knocked out,” President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon during a news conference at the White House with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Without a credible air force or navy, the IRGC’s ability to sustain any meaningful blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be limited. However, its capacity to wage asymmetric warfare through drones is still unsettling to shipowners, which helps explain why President Trump has offered insurance backstops and naval escorts for tankers transiting the narrow waterway.
END
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
Western Official Claims Iran Has Just ‘Days Left’ For Depleting Missile Arsenal
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Among the most crucial open questions in the ongoing Operation Epic Fury – or perhaps the most pressing issue – is which warring side will outlast the other in terms of maintaining missile and interceptor numbers, and for the US side this means enough to achieve the (somewhat ambiguous) military objectives.
Speculation and estimates are flying wildly in international press reports, also with Iran now claiming it has only thus far expended its older and aging stockpile, but stands ready to use its newer, more advanced ballistic projectiles. But amid the fog of war in these opening days of conflict, and competing narratives, there’s also concern at the Pentagon over just how long this ‘air war’ will last.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier Wednesday suggested that the campaign could extend to eight weeks. So already the scope is getting extended (and is so as each day passes), after President Trump initially floated a mere likely ‘days’ or up to “five weeks” of combat operations against Iran in the Persian Gulf region.
Enter The Wall Street Journal with a new Wednesday report just as the Pentagon wrapped up its press briefing…
“The number of Iranian ballistic missile launches is declining and at current rates Tehran has only several more days of firepower from them, according to a Western official,” the report says. “Still, the decline might also be because Iran is holding back missiles so its operations can last longer, the official said.”
But again, headline consumers might want to take such an assessment with a big grain of salt. Every hot war is accompanied by an information war – a reality for all wars since time immemorial. The major media, from NYT to WSJ to CNN to of course The Washington Post, typically gets its ‘scoops’ from anonymous Pentagon and US intelligence officials, or else from Mossad and the Israeli government (given the current war is also being waged by Israel).
And yet, there can also be little doubt that Iran’s missile capabilities are being degraded on at least some level, given the massive ‘shock and awe’ US-Israeli bombing raids, which is targeting Iranian missile sites among others. WSJ notes this in the following:
The decline is a result of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian launch sites and the facilities that manufacture them, the official said. Even as its ability to fire sophisticated missiles dwindles, Iran can still maintain a drumbeat of attacks with cheaper systems, such as drones, another Western official said.
On Tuesday, the top U.S. commander in the region, Adm. Brad Cooper, said Iran’s ability to target the U.S. and its partners in the Middle East was declining after hundreds of its ballistic missiles, launchers and drones were targeted.
But there’s some other key trends worth emphasizing: these hard to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles are in fact unleashing significant damage on the Pentagon’s radar and military communications infrastructure in the Gulf region. Many are also getting through Israel’s significant anti-air defense systems. The death toll in Israel is at least ten, with dozens wounded, but the IDF has not issued more info on casualties since the weekend.
One prevailing view within the Western defense establishment…
Again, all of this has to be taken in context of a raging info war and the fact that US, Israeli, and allied governments are doing some heavy narrative shaping at this moment, and feeding it to the press.
We can say that the idea of Iran fast running out of ammo, while also possessing whole underground ‘missile cities’ – seems more like ‘wishful thinking’ at this moment. Iran has clearly been preparing for this showdown for years, it must also be noted.
end
IRAN ISRAEL LATE AFTERNOON HEADLINES:
Iran Signals ‘Prolonged War’ As President Masoud Declares ‘No Choice’ But To Fight
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Here are some of the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict:
- Iran will target Israeli embassies if its embassy is hit: IRNA
- Iranian intelligence sends word to US on potential talks to end war, but US officials say no active negotiations: CNN reports
- Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says no choice but to fight: Dear esteemed leaders of our friendly and neighboring countries, we have strived, with your assistance and through diplomacy, to avoid war. However, the American-Zionist military attack has left us with no choice but to defend ourselves.
- Iran begins shift toward governing for a prolonged war: FARS/BBG
- Turkey says a ballistic missile fired Iran was destroyed by NATO systems in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Hegseth dismisses Article 5 concerns.
- Allegations that the ballistic missile was launched “at Incirlik Air Base” – which hosts NATO nukes.
- US Secretary of State Rubio says well on their way to achieving Iran mission objectives. Did the US just blink here?
- Putin notes that oil and gas prices are rising related to Mideast crisis.
- Airline Troubles in Region Compound as Flight Cancellations Surpass 20,000
- Hegseth floats new timeline up to eight weeks while saying as long as it takes
- If US and Israel pursue a ‘regime change’ scenario in practice, final effective missiles will target Dimona nuclear reactor and all regional energy infrastructure, via Iran Nuances citing a Senior Iranian military official
- Senior Iranian Cleric Javadi Amoli: shedding the blood of Israelis and Trump is what is required of devout Shi’ite Muslims”, state media
- Western officials claim Iran could be ‘days’ from exhausting ballistic missile supply, but Pentagon also concerned about own stockpiles
- Israel and Hezbollah are now in a ground war in southern Lebanon.
* * *
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, February 23-March 2, 2026
Martin Short’s daughter, Katherine; rappers Luci4 (23), Oliver “Power” Grant; boxer Ruben Castillo (C); WNBA champ Kara Braxton (43); footballer Devonta Lee (26, C); baseballer Jhon Vargas (29); more
| Mark Crispin MillerMar 4 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (140)
Martin Short’s daughter, Katherine, dead by apparent suicide at 42
February 24, 2026
Martin Short’s daughter, Katherine, died on Monday by an apparent suicide. She was 42. “It is with profound grief that we confirm the passing of Katherine Hartley Short,” a rep for the “Only Murders in the Building” star confirmed to Page Six Tuesday. The social worker was reportedly found dead with a self-inflicted gunshot wound at her Hollywood Hills, Calif., home on Monday around 6 p.m. local time, per TMZ.
Rapper Luci4 died
February 24, 2026
Los Angeles rapper Luci4 has died at 23 years old. Luci4’s manager Kayla G posted a message to TikTok late Sunday (Feb. 22) confirming the pioneering rapper’s death: “I am devastated to inform you that today, James, Luci4, Axxturel has passed away. He was truly a leader a king and a musician and a genius,” she wrote of the artist born James Dear. “There’s nobody like him and there will never be. We all loved him dearly. Rest Easy. Please allow family and friends privacy and patience during this difficult time.” A cause of death was not revealed. Billboard has reached out to the Los Angeles Medical Examiner’s Office for comment. The influential rapper, who also went by the alias Axxturel, broke through with his “Bodypartz” single in 2021, which earned him a deal with Atlantic Records. “Bodypartz” became certified gold by the RIAA in 2024 and the apocalyptic visual to the blaring track has compiled more than 4 million views on YouTube.
No cause of death reported.
Wu-Tang Clan’s Oliver “Power” Grant Dead At 52, Method Man Speaks
February 24, 2026
Oliver “Power” Grant, a founding business architect of the Wu-Tang Clan and creator of its influential Wu Wear clothing line, died on February 23. He was 52. The cause of death was not disclosed as of press time. His passing was confirmed by Method Man, a core member of the Clan, who paid tribute on Instagram. Meth and Power co-starred in the 1998 film Belly and the 1999 film Black and White. Power also served as a manager and executive producer on several Wu-Tang-related projects, expanding the brand into touring, film and merchandising. His work translated the group’s raw lyricism into sustainable enterprise. In an industry that often spotlights performers, Oliver “Power” Grant stood behind the curtain. His imprint on hip-hop commerce endures in the blueprint he helped design.
Beloved American Boxer, 4-Time Title Contender, Dies of Cancer at 68
February 27, 2026
Former boxer Ruben Castillo, who earned four shots at world titles in two weight classes over a professional career spanning more than two decades, has died. He was 68. Castillo passed away this week surrounded by family and friends in Beaumont, California, following a long battle with cancer.
Killed in a “vaxxident”:
Police Reveal How 43-Year-Old Two-Time WNBA Champion Died
February 24, 2026
WNBA star Kara Braxton died in a single-vehicle car crash, officials said. Braxton, 43, was driving a 2023 Ford Mustang on Saturday afternoon when she struck a median on Interstate 285 in Marietta, Georgia. “The Ford continued in a northerly direction against the concrete wall until coming to rest on the left shoulder,” the Cobb County Police Department said in a statement. Following the collision, Braxton was transported to the Wellstar Kennestone Hospital, where she was pronounced dead shortly after her arrival.
Devonta Lee Dead at 26: Former LSU Football Player’s Mother Reveals Tragic Details After Cancer Battle
February 27, 2026
Former Louisiana State University football player Devonta Lee has died after a years-long battle with cancer, his mother, Lacresia Brown, confirmed to local Arkansas TV station KTVE on Thursday, February 26. He was 26. Lee played three seasons at LSU from 2019 to 2021, winning a national championship with the Tigers as a true freshman. He later transferred to Louisiana Tech University for the final two seasons of his college career. Lee was diagnosed with osteosarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer, in 2022 after feeling a sharp pain in his back while practicing. He underwent treatment and returned to football in 2024 with the Bulldogs.
Researcher’s note – Most Louisiana public universities will require COVID-19 vaccine [sic] after FDA approval: https://lailluminator.com/2021/08/23/some-louisiana-universities-will-mandate-covid-19-vaccine-after-fda-approval/
Former Tri-City ValleyCats pitcher dies at 29 years old
February 28, 2026
Former Tri-City ValleyCats pitcher Jhon Vargas died suddenly, his Puerto Rican team announced Friday morning. He was 29. No cause of death was given. “Today baseball is in mourning,” Proceres de Barranquitas, which plays in Beisbol Superior Doble A, said in a team statement.
Two softball deaths in Kentucky in just over a week:
Kentucky Reports Second Softball-Related Death in 9 Days After College Umpire Dies Mid-Game
February 26, 2026
The state is mourning its second softball-related death in nine days after a college umpire suffered a fatal medical emergency during a game. In the top of the second inning of an NAIA softball game between Campbellsville University and Union Commonwealth on Wednesday, play came to a screeching halt. The scoreboard showed a count of two strikes and two balls, but that didn’t matter because an umpire’s life was quickly slipping away. One of the umpires of the doubleheader collapsed mid-game and died. An athletic trainer on site performed CPR until EMS arrived. Meagan Murphy, Campbellsville’s interim vice president of enrollment and marketing, confirmed the tragic news to The Courier Journal on Thursday. The umpire’s death is the second softball-related tragedy in the state of Kentucky in the last nine days. The first death happened on Feb. 19 when freshman Brylie Northcutt was at Russell County High School tryouts. The freshman received CPR until she was taken to the hospital, where she passed away. Northcutt experienced “trouble breathing” and collapsed on the field, WKYT and ABC36 News reported. She was rushed to the hospital, where she was later pronounced dead. She was just 15 years old.
No cause of death reported.
Two beauty execs “died suddenly”:
Kendal Ascher, Estée Lauder Cos. Veteran, Dies at 56
February 27, 2026
Kendal Ascher, a longtime executive at the Estée Lauder Cos., has died at age 56. The company confirmed his death, but did not provide a date or cause. Ascher most recently worked as the senior vice president of the luxury portfolio and general manager, and working on strategies across La Mer, Tom Ford Beauty, Jo Malone London, Kilian Paris, Balmain Beauty and Frédéric Malle for North America.
Beauty Executive Evelyn Couzijn Dies at 68
February 24, 2026
Evelyn Maria Couzijn, a former senior sales executive at La Prairie, Chanel and L’Oréal, died Sunday after a long battle with ALS. She was 68 years old. Couzijn was regarded by many as a cherished mentor who had a gift for guiding people without diminishing them.
Four politicians “died suddenly”:
Middleton Mayor Jackie Hutchinson dies at 74, city says
February 27, 2026
MIDDLETON, Idaho – Middleton Mayor Jackie L. Hutchinson died Thursday, the city announced. She was 74 years old. Hutchinson died on Feb. 26 “peacefully at home, surrounded by family,” officials wrote on social media. She served the Middleton community beginning in 2023, according to the city’s website. Representatives for the city said Hutchinson “served with heartfelt dedication and an unwavering commitment” to the people of Middleton, adding “she will be deeply missed.”
No cause of death reported.
Kansas leaders mourn the death of Representative John Resman
March 2, 2026
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Kansas leaders are honoring the life and legacy of John Resman [70], a longtime public servant whose sudden death has prompted tributes from across the state. Resman was an Olathe Republican who represented Kansas House District 121 since 2017. He died Monday morning at his home, according to statements released by legislative leaders.
No cause of death reported.
West Virginia Delegate Larry Kump dies at 78
March 1, 2026
CHARLESTON, W.Va. – Del. Larry Kump, R-Berkeley, died on Saturday at the age of 78, government officials announced. Kump began serving in the West Virginia House of Delegates in 2010. He served from 2010-2014 and again from 2018-2020. He was elected a third time in 2022 and served in the 94th district all the way up until his death.
No cause of death reported.
Manatee County Commissioner Carol Felts dies at age 68
February 24, 2026
Manatee County Commissioner Carol Ann Felts, an eighth-generation Floridian known as a dedicated public servant, died unexpectedly Tuesday. She was 68. The county confirmed her death in a statement but provided no details about the cause. Commission Chair Tal Siddique said in a Facebook statement that the sheriff’s office will be investigating. Felts was elected to the board in 2024 to represent District 1, which included her home of Myakka City, as well Parrish and parts of Ellenton and Palmetto.
Two journalists “died suddenly”:
Elizabeth Snead, Former Hollywood Reporter Contributor, Dies at 74
February 26, 2026
Elizabeth Snead, a former contributor and style and fashion writer for The Hollywood Reporter, died Monday in Delray Beach, Florida, of complications from Alzheimer’s disease. She was 74.
Former WAPL morning host Rick McNeal dies at 67
February 28, 2026
Former longtime WAPL-FM morning show co-host Rick McNeal died Feb. 28 at age 67, the radio station and friends announced. McNeal had been in a coma for a week in an intensive care unit after an infection led to sepsis, according to a Facebook post from Len Nelson, his close friend and former on-air partner who spent 35 years in the studio with him on “The Rick & Len Show.” “Suffice to say, it’s devastating,
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
| Man Detained Near Paxton Watch Party After Ammunition Found in Unplated VehicleA man was detained outside Ken Paxton’s primary night watch party after police found multiple ammunition magazines and boxes of ammo in his unplated Chrysler. Police say no firearms were recovered and no injuries occurred.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Macron Orders Charles de Gaulle Toward Mediterranean as Tensions RisePresident Macron ordered the nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle and its strike group toward the Mediterranean to bolster allied defenses and safeguard vital shipping lanes amid regional escalation after US and Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Monroe County Trio Indicted Over Alleged Frisco City Ballot SchemeThree Monroe County women were indicted on numerous absentee ballot charges tied to the August 26, 2025 Frisco City election, with authorities crediting SB1 and local law enforcement for exposing alleged ballot harvesting and falsified applications.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Rubio Cuts Off Reporters After Strongly Backing Trump’s Iran Missile StrikesSecretary of State Marco Rubio forcefully defended President Trump’s preemptive strikes on Iranian missile sites and dismissed media criticism while arguing the U.S.-Israeli operation prevented a larger threat and protected American troops.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Mojtaba Khamenei Reportedly Chosen to Lead IranIranian opposition outlets report Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his father, a development that would keep power in the Khamenei family amid escalating tensions and Israeli strikes.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Hormuz Freeze Sends Brent-Dubai Spread to Multi-Year High
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 07:15 PM
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice,
Brent’s premium to the Middle East’s Dubai benchmark has blown out to its widest level since 2022, confirmation that the global oil market is squarely trading on disruption.
As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $83–$84 per barrel, up more than 7% on the day, while Dubai crude sat near $68, barely moving. The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps — known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) — surged above $6 per barrel, compared to less than $2 just last week before the Iran conflict erupted. It is the widest gap in years, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
Brent is the global pricing reference used for much of the world’s seaborne oil trade, while Dubai serves as the key marker for Middle Eastern crude flowing into Asia. When Brent trades at a large premium to Dubai, it signals tightness and risk in Atlantic Basin barrels relative to Gulf-linked supply.
The futures market, where traders buy and sell contracts for oil delivered at a future date, is reacting to risk in real time, pricing in potential shortages, often before physical flows are visibly curtailed.
The catalyst is easily identifiable. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively frozen amid Iran’s threats and ongoing military action. Even if the Strait is not formally “closed,” no shipper wants to test how many teeth Iran has to make good on their threats. With crude from the Gulf stranded and freight rates spiking as available tankers thin out, trading in Middle East benchmarks has become patchy and uncertain.
Brent, meanwhile, is absorbing the geopolitical premium.
This widening gap matters. If the Strait remains inactive for weeks rather than days, upstream shut-ins in the region become increasingly likely. Analysts warn that beyond roughly three weeks of disruption, producers may have no choice but to curb output.
The market is debating how long the supply risk will last, and whether $100 oil is a floor rather than a ceiling if Hormuz does not normalize.
end
Crude Stocks Rise 3.5 Million, Highest Since May 2025
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 10:48 AM
With oil flows passing through the Straits of Hormuz blocked indefinitely, markets were paying especially close attention to today’s weekly DOE report on oil stocks, to see how much capacity the US has in case of a prolonged lockout. The result was satisfactory.
The DOE reported the following weekly changes:
- Crude +3.475MM, more than the expected +3.00MM, and the highest since May 2025
- Gasoline -1.704MM, down to the lowest since Jan 9, 2026
- Distillates +429K, biggest increase since Jan 2026
- Cushing +1.6MM, rising to the highest since Aug 23, 2024.
Visually:
Also notable: production dipped modestly by -6kbd to 13.696MMb/d, yet the total US output remains remarkable especially when considering the sharp drop in wells in recent years.
Finally, while still relatively low, Cushing stocks continue to rise, and this week’s 1.6 million barrel increase to 26.5 million pushes them to the highest since August 2024.
Overall, this was a welcome report as it showed that not only is US oil production humming along, but US commercial stocks continue to increase and in a worst case scenario of prolonged Hormuz closure, the US can remain relatively energy independent, even if Asia and especially China and Korea scramble to find alternatives to Gulf energy.
end
Watch: Bessent Teases ‘Series Of Announcements’ To Stabilize Oil; Says Trump’s 15% Tariff Will Kick In This Week
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 11:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Donald Trump’s 15 percent global tariff will take effect sometime this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
Following the Supreme Court’s rebuke of the president’s signature economic policy last month, Trump imposed a 10 percent global tariff, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. A day later, Trump pledged to raise the rate to 15 percent.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on March 4, Bessent confirmed that the new rate would be introduced sometime this week and remain in place for 150 days.
He also anticipates tariff rates would return to the levels that were in place before the high court’s decision.
“It’s my strong belief that the tariff rates will be back to their old rate within five months,” Bessent said.
“They have survived more than 4000 legal challenges. They are more slow moving, but they are more robust.”
rejected the president’s effort to postpone legal proceedings connected to tariff refunds, sending the battle to a lower court.
Estimates suggest the federal government’s tariff refunds could total $175 billion.
Fiscal year-to-date, the administration’s tariffs have generated more than $150 billion, according to Treasury data as of March 2.
Oil Announcements Coming
Global energy markets have been highly volatile since the Iran War, with crude oil and natural gas prices rocketing on fears of supply disruptions.
The president calmed down the oil market on March 3.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the White House would offer naval escorts and guarantee political risk insurance for commercial oil and gas tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global chokepoint that handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day. It has effectively been shuttered as insurance companies canceled coverage or dramatically raised premiums.
But the administration will make additional announcements to help stabilize prices, Bessent said.
“We have a series of announcements that we’re going to be making,” Bessent stated.
“We began yesterday with the announcement that [Development Finance Corporation] will provide the insurance for both the crude carriers and the cargo ships operating in around the Gulf over the weekend.”
He shrugged off a possible energy shock as the Middle East conflict intensified, saying that the United States and the global marketplace maintain ample supplies.
“This was a well telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The crude markets are very well supplied,” Bessent said.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate—the U.S. benchmark for oil prices—fell by about 0.5 percent in pre-market trading to around $74 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent—the international benchmark—was little changed at slightly above $81 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
“Oil prices retreated after news the U.S. will ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a major global supply shock,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
“Softer oil prices are also helping cool inflation concerns and pull interest rates lower.”
Market watchers had warned that the risk of oil prices reaching $100 were high if the narrow waterway were closed for an extended period.
U.S. stocks also rebounded midweek, with the leading benchmark averages in the green prior to the opening bell.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed by as much as 1,200 points on March 2 before paring most of its losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index also fell by about 400 points before trimming its decline. The broader S&P 500 had also fallen by around 1 percent.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1634 UP 0.0024
USA/ YEN 157.31 DOWN 0.456 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3375 UP 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3668 DOWN 0.0006 CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS//(DESPITE TRUMP’S TARIFFS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 40.20 PTS OR 0.98%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 518.60 PTS OR OR 2.01%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.05%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 518.60 PTS OR 2.01%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.20 PTS OR 0.98%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.05 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2083.05 PTS OR 3.20%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 5188.50
silver:$85.86
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 43.96
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 78.03 ROUBLE// DOWN 38 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4720 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.195 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.243 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 2.790 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 98.84 DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.132% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.113% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.343 UP 0 BASIS PTS//DIASTER
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.201 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.443 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.762 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1641 UP 0.0030 OR 30 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.26 DOWN 0.492 OR YEN IS UP 49 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.4520 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.170 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 9 BASIS pts to 1.3683
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8974 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.90031
TURKISH LIRA: 43.97 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.072.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.719 UP 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.508 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 5169.30
SILVER AT 10;00: 84.77
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 83.52 PTS OR 0.80%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 414.71 OR 1.74%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 63.89 PTS OR 0.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 424.60 PTS OR 2..49%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 868.42 PTS OR 1.95%
WTI Oil price 74.11 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 80.80 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 77.65 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 3 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.244 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.785 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1643 UP 0.0033 OR 33 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3379 UP 0.0029 OR 29 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4410 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.181 UP 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.137 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.357 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.04 DOWN 0.728 OR YEN UP 73 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3637 DOWN 0.0037 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 37 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.26
Brent OIL: 81.86
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.088
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 2 PTS to 4.722%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.545 UP 5 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.2610 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.808 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.73 DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 43.96 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.88 DOWN 0 AND 23/100 roubles //
GOLD $5141.35 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 83.31 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 398.83 OR 0.82%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 272.52 PTS OR 1.09%
VOLATILITY INDEX 23.18 UP 1.74 PTS OR 7.51%
GLD: $ 483.75 UP 6.27 PTS OR 1.29%
SLV/ $84.98 UP 4.53 PTS OR OR 5.63 %
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 146.41 PTS OR 0.42%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
WRAP UP
Stocks & Software Soar, Oil Snores As Traders Forget About The War
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 04:03 PM
Coming into today, there was tangible dread on trading desks: after all, Asia was a bloodbath, Europe was red, and Korea’s Kospi had just suffered it’s biggest 1- (and 2-) day drop on record, tumbling 12% on Wednesday and briefly entering a bear market from its record high just 3 days ago.
Yet for the third day in a row, what started off as an overnight rout, quickly turned into a broad, risk-on buying buying spree.
The first trigger was a (since denied) NYT report that Iran was trying to backchannel with the CIA. Then, it was solid economic data, but perhaps the biggest trigger for today’s upside was extremely bearish positioning and… the fact that there simply wasn’t a barrage of bad data headlines.
Remarkably, thanks to the third meltup in a row, stocks are back to Friday’s pre-Iran strike close, and as Goldman writes in its mid-day wrap, “if you haven’t been in the seat the last 2 days you might have a “nothing to see here” feeling.” And while macro is still driving much of the activity today, volumes in the already extremely illiquid market have moderated vs yesterday but ETFs are still nearly 40% of the tape (which, as a reminder, is how most hedge funds, well, hedge these days).
And while the market glossed over news that Kurds may be getting involved in the Iran war, while the Houthis are preparing to attack targets inside Saudi Arabia, it appeared more interested in the latest economic news which were impressive, starting with the solid ADP and ending with the blowout Service ISM number.
The ADP number was the day’s first positive surprise, as private jobs surged 3x from January and beat estimates, as they rose to 63K, the highest since November.
Then it was the Service ISM print which smashed expectations (a 6-sigma beat), rising the most since Sept 2024 to the highest level since July 2022.
The stagflation narrative was crushed, if only for today, as the ISM’s Prices Paid index tumbled to an 11 month low while everything else rose.
The Citi US eco surprise index jumped from 30 to 39 in one session following the unexpectedly strong economic data.
A look under the surface reveals a solid picture, as if taken during the market’s 2025 heyday: tech, discretionary and utilities are leading, while energy, materials and staples lag, with a healthy 310 names higher, 190 names lower.
As we warned on several occasions, the Energy sector had fully priced in the war – and then some – and not even today’s latest escalation was enough to push up the space; as a result energy was the worst sector.
Going back to the Goldman note, they write that what is interesting to see is the highest velocity barbells are reversing their trends to start the year: as noted above, the KOSPI had its worst session ever after the blistering start to the year while Bitcoin is dusting itself off +8% and helping drive the cover bid to the market (more on that in a second). Bitcoin is also the reason momentum trying – and succeeding – to recover from its 5th worst decline over the last year yesterday. In fact, today’s 9% jump is the best since Liberation day (excluding the Feb 6, 2-day roller coaster which ended up flat),
Moving on: the market may have forgotten for now the whole debate about whether AI will end the world, but it appears to remember that Anthropic is suddenly in the administration’s cross hairs (damage control reports of soaring revenue notwithstanding). And as we previewed a week ago when we said that the showdown between the DOD and Anthropic would results in a software surge…
WarAI: Will Anthropic’s Clash With Hegseth Trigger Historic Software Short-Squeeze https://t.co/HTp8VTbQxl— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 26, 2026
… now that fears of a Claude-driven disruption are fading, software (IGV) is up every day since our post – and up 6 of the past 7 days.
The rebound in software means that after dropping to a record low on Feb 23, the GS TMT Software vs Semis pair has continued to rise and may have finally established a bottom after years of falling.
As Goldman’s tech strategist Peter Callahan writes, “Software x Semis .. one of a handful days this year where Semis and Software are both up 1.5%+ on the day .. ‘squeeze’ in the latter, ‘bounce’ in the former? … the ‘consensus’ view in Software right now remains that the group can “bounce” (positioning rate of change), but may be harder to “rally” (medium term debates exist).”
It’s not just software: after plunging yesterday the Goldman High beta momentum basket surged today, erasing most of yesterday’s losses and also trading above Friday’s levels, and not far from January’s record highs.
Confirming the rebound in momentum, the Goldman retail favorites basket had its best day in a month, although it remains in a tight range, trading at levels last seen in late September.
Even the badly beaten down private credit names halted their decline, and posted modest gains on Wednesday.
While it may not seem like it, today’s broad stock market bounce is an extension of some of the activity observed by Goldman’s Prime Brokerage yesterday: they saw buying across all regions yesterday, including in Korea. US buying was mostly driven by short covering in macro products…sector flows net flat, with buying in most sectors offset by heavy selling in Energy
- Global Book was net bought (+1.3 SDs one-year) driven by long buying.
- US was net bought (+0.9 SDs one-year) driven by short covering and long buying in 1.6 to 1 ratio. Net buying was driven by net buying in Macro Products (+1.2 SDs one-year, short covers>long buys).
- 8/11 US sectors were net bought led by Health Care (+1.6 SDs, long buys>short covers), Utilities (+2.9 SDs, long buys>short sells), Information Technology (+0.5 SDs, short covers>long buys) and Communication Services (+1.1 SDs, short covers>long sells) while Energy (-5.3 SDs, short sells>long sells) was by far the most net sold sector.
As for today, Goldman writes in its mid-day update that overall activity levels are slightly higher vs. the trailing two weeks (which were marked by investor paralysis), as market volumes are +16% vs the 20DMA.
- Goldman’s floor tilts +5% better to buy as both HFs and LOs are on the bid. Cyclical demand sticks out – Disc, Fins and Industrial buy skews are all in the 90th+ %-ile.
- HFs are +8% better to buy, that’s 95th %-ile. Demand is skewed towards Tech, Indust & Fins with supply concentrated in Macro Prods.
- LOs are +7% better to buy with demand for Tech, Cons and HCare outweighing supply in Macro Prods and Comm Svcs.
Going back to what we said above that the market may have forgotten about the AI capex scare, that isn’t exactly true: Goldman’s tech analysts point out that the recent anxiety about tech valuations, capex plans and the disruption to business models (particularly in areas around software) has resulted in a de-rating of longer-duration cash flows in favor of more certain nearer-term returns in physical capex and infrastructure. This has led to one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology compared with other sectors over the past 50 years!
But what is perhaps most remarkable about today’s action is that oil, which was seemingly surging in a relentless meltup in the past few days, closed flat from Tuesday’s close.
One final point: we have previously observed that the October surge in the Kospi coincided with the meltdown in bitcoin, starting just around the time of the infamous 10/10 meltdown in crypto.
Well, as we said a few days ago when we predicted that the meltdown in the momentum-darling Kospi would lead to a jump in beaten down and deserted bitcoin… that’s precisely what happened!
Putting it all together, despite the ongoing corrections in Asia (Korea, Japan, Taiwan), not to mention the ongoing war in the Gulf, the S&P500 is basically now Flat since last Thursday before the war started, and taking the geopolitical + cross asset volatility in stride .. for now.
The question now is what can the newsflow firehose throw at the market to surprise it and restart the scare cycle from scratch.
USA DATA RELEASES
Services ISM Smashes Estimates, Prints At 56.1 Highest Since 2022, As Prices Paid Tumble
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 10:28 AM
After the Manufacturing ISM print earlier this week came modestly stronger than expected (albeit with the Prices Paid component spiking and sending 10Y yields higher), some were expecting a similar improvement in today’s Services ISM print. What they got instead, was a blowout number, and one suggesting that whatever weakness the US economy was in for much of the latter part of 2025, is now over.
At 10:00am ET, the ISM Services print came out at 56.1, the highest print since July 2022, and was 2.3 higher than the 53.8 reported in January – the biggest monthly increase since Sept 2024
Economists expected a print of 53.5. Not only did the number come above the highest estimate, it was a six-sigma beat to the consensus estimate.
The breakdown shows improvements across virtually every category (a decline in prices paid is actually a good thing, as it means less inflation/stagflation risk).
Digging into the report we find that three demand indicators (the New Orders, Backlog of Orders and New Export Orders indexes) are in expansion, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a slightly slower rate. That said, a ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.
Regarding output, the Production Index is in expansion for the fourth month in a row, and the Employment Index, though still in contraction, improved by 0.7- percentage points. However, 45% of panelists still indicate that managing head counts is the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring.
Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports) all increased since the previous month’s reading. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower deliveries, Inventories Index contraction has slowed, and the Prices Index took a huge leap to 70.5 percent from 59 percent in January.
And while both employment and new orders posted gains, perhaps the most important indicator was that Prices Paid tumbled from 66.6 to 63.0, the lowest print in 11 months.
Here is a snapshot of what the ISM respondents are saying:
- “India tariffs are anticipated to provide some measure of cost relief once current inventory levels are worked through. At a high level, we are addressing price/value perception which continues to drive negative sales impact.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
- “Our industry seems to have adapted to the tariffs. The costs are embedded into the import cost the company has to shoulder.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
- “Residential homebuilding continues to lag due to affordability and interest rate issues. While we saw improved sales last month due to further discounts, we struggled to achieve similar results in February. More material cost increases have rolled in for beginning of the second quarter, so margins continue to be reduced.” [Construction]
- “Higher education institutions are operating cautiously due to enrollment fluctuations and uncertainty in state and federal funding and name, image and likeness licensing. While supply chains have improved, costs remain high for technology, facilities, utilities, and contracted services. Labor expenses are also increasing due to competitive hiring. As a result, purchasing decisions are focused on essential needs, cost control, and maintaining key operations, with some noncritical projects being delayed.” [Educational Services]
- “Tariff volatility and shifting bilateral trade agreements are materially impacting our purchasing operations. Changes in U.S. semiconductor supply constraints continue to pressure component pricing and availability. The combination of tariff exposure and semiconductor market instability is increasing procurement risk, compressing margins, and requiring more aggressive supplier diversification and contractual protections to maintain cost competitiveness.” [Mining]
- “The business climate remains solid overall, but significant unknown risks from further potential tariff actions by the U.S. government are dampening business investment.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
- “Due to random-access memory shortages, we are seeing increased cost and lead times from key technology providers. Quotes that were normally secure for 90 days are now 30 days or less.” [Retail Trade]
- “Transportation/truck capacity has been extremely tight, causing rates to spike 30 percent to 40 percent. Some of this can be attributed to the weather; some can be attributed to the Federal Highway Administration’s push to make sure all drivers are proficient in English and others can be attributed to an increase in commerce.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
- “Mid-first quarter business conditions are good. The unseasonable cold weather has helped to increase demand and boost revenues. All else is on track so far.” [Utilities]
- “Overall, our business performance in January and February has been solid (minus some winter storm hurdles). Our upstream oil and gas business has stalled for two years and is not supporting our growth. On the other hand, all data center-related activity continues to grow substantially. Downstream is always steady, but we are taking more market share within it. The business here is busy. All industries are doing well, minus the oil field business.” [Wholesale Trade]
The report listed the following commodities as going up in price: Cement Products; Chips; Computers; Copper (3); Fuel; Labor (7); Lumber (2); Memory Products (2); Software; Software — Licensing; Software Maintenance; and Wire & Cable.
There were two commodities that dropped in price: Diesel Fuel (3); and the all important Gasoline which is now down 12 months in a row.
Commenting on today’s ISM report, Bloomberg says that it comes as close as it possibly can to goldilocks as “the headline reading posted its highest level since the summer of 2022, with lower-than-expected prices paid (63 versus 68.3 forecast) and nice jumps in new orders and employment, both of which comfortably exceeded market forecasts. If you are a believe that AI will drive non-inflationary growth, this is the survey for you, and it’s given equities a bit of a fillip as a result.”
Judging by the positive market reaction which has sent stocks sharply higher after the report, the market agrees.
end
ADP Private Payrolls Jump To 63K, Stronger Than Expected And Highest Since November
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 08:43 AM
Amid the ongoing double whammy of geopolitical and private credit shocks, with a little AI disruption thrown in every other days courtesy of Anthropic’s human-displacing agents and smashing capex-lite sectors like a chatbot avalanche, the last thing the market needed is a negative job print signaling a recession has effectively arrived. It didn’t get that, at least not yet, because while the February jobs report is still to come on Friday, moments ago ADP reported that private payrolls rose in February by 63K, up sharply from the 11K in January (downward revised from 22K) and above the 50K median forecast.
The solid report comes just two before the the DOL is set to report February payrolls which are expected to grow by 58K, a drop from last month’s 130K.
A detailed breakdown of the job changes shows broad based job gains, with modest declines in mnaufacturing, trade/transportation and a bigger drop in professional/business services.
Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged in February at 4.5% year-over-year. For job-changers, annualized pay growth slowed to 6.3% from 6.6% the previous month.
Commenting on the report, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said that “we’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers. But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February.”
The question now is whether ADP – which is notoriously uncorrelated with the BLS jobs report – is a leading indicator for a labor market recovery or if, as has been the case in recent years, we are about to see a very disappointing labor print in two days, restarting fears that the US economy is sliding into recession.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
THIS WOULD BE TERRIFIC!!
(zerohedge)
Senators Ask Treasury To Unilaterally Index Capital Gains, Bypassing Congress
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 09:20 PM
Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott are asking Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to unilaterally implement a major capital gains tax cut — by letting taxpayers adjust their cost basis to account for the effects of inflation. In a letter they intended to send on Tuesday, the pair will argue that it’s within Bessent’s authority to make such a move, without the need for legislation,
“Using your executive authority to … eliminate an unfair inflation tax on everyday Americans is the single most pro-growth economic action the administration can take unilaterally, and it would boost savings, spur investment, and create jobs nationwide,” Cruz and Scott wrote in the letter reviewed by the Washington Post.
To appreciate the injustice of the status quo, consider an investor who paid $10,000 for a stock in January 2010, and sold it for $15,000 in January 2026. On a CPI inflation-adjusted basis, the investment has only grown by $10.22 in real terms. However, the investor is forced to pay tax on a supposed gain of $5,000. By some estimates, a third of all unrealized capital gains represent the effects of inflation.
“American families and job creators should not have to pay taxes on phantom income,” said a group of more than 30 conservative organizations and individuals in a letter to President Trump last month. “Our tax brackets are indexed to inflation for a reason—we don’t think a worker who gets a raise that barely keeps pace with inflation should face a tax increase. The same principle should apply to savings.
In their letter to Bessent, the two senators also argue that capital gains tax relief can also help ease the woes of America’s pricy housing market, pointing to people who have large unrealized gains on their homes, making them reluctant to sell. Note that owner-occupied properties can currently use an exclusion of up to $250,000 in gains for singles, and $500,000 for married couples filing jointly.
Not everyone agrees about the legality of such a move by the Treasury Department. Last month, Americans for Tax Reform said, “The Treasury Department has the authority to redefine the calculation of capital gains taxes by excluding inflation from tax owed, based on several legal analyses going back several decades.” Skeptics point to a 1992 conclusion of the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel that said such a move would exceed the department’s authority.
As they are prone to do with most tax-cut proposals, leftists whine that most of the benefit of a capital gains indexing would accrue to the wealthiest taxpayers — but that’s because they’re hardest hit by the current structure. For 2026, unmarried taxpayers with taxable income under $49,450, and married taxpayers with income under $98,900, have a 0% capital gains rate. The rate rises to 15% for those with taxable income under $545,500 for unmarrieds and $614,700 for married couples. Beyond that, the rate is 20%. Those with substantial net investment income are hit with another 3.8%.
end
New Jersey
New Jersey Faces Structural Deficit Crisis And Democrats Blame Trump
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 06:50 PM
When all else fails, blame Trump. It might be the only political strategy the Democrats have left but it doesn’t work for everything.
New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill, who took office this year, warns that the state faces a serious structural deficit (spending exceeding revenues annually) of roughly $3 billion, despite a projected surplus of $7.2 billion by the end of 2026. The notice comes as she prepares to unveil her first state budget on March 10th.
Shockingly, Sherrill admits that Covid relief funds are drying up and that the stimulus helped to paper over the many budgetary problems within NJ (this is something alternative economists have been asserting for years). However, she immediately launched into an attack on the Trump Administration, blaming federal cuts for the state’s incoming fiscal crisis.
New Jersey’s extreme deficit earns them a membership in an exclusive club of states, all of them run by Democrat governors. California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Maryland all have deficits of $3 billion or more (California and New York are running deficits above $30 billion). It would seem there is a discernible pattern here, and it has nothing to do with Trump.
New Jersey’s total state government debt was roughly $213 billion as of late 2025, ranking among the highest in the nation.
Furthermore, in August 2023 the New Jersey Policy Perspective (NJPP) think tank issued an analysis cited “red flags” in the FY 2024 budget, including a structural deficit estimated at $1.5 billion for that year. They warned of a looming crisis with revenues projected to fall short by $3-4 billion annually in coming years if trends continued, citing declining year-over-year revenues in many states (including NJ) and unsustainable spending growth.
Phil Murphy, a Democrat, was governor on NJ in 2023. Republicans accused him in 2025 of trying to hide the budget crisis and they threatened to report him to the SEC. Sen. Declan O’Scanlon (R-Monmouth) reviewed financial disclosures from the New Jersey Department of the Treasury. What he found was a series of “grossly misleading” data shared with Wall Street credit rating agencies and the public.
In other words, Democrats knew well before Trump returned to office that they were facing a fiscal shortfall and they relied on covid funds and rigged numbers to kick the can down the road. Sherrill is carrying out a pre-planned agenda to dump these Biden era economic dysfunctions at Donald Trump’s feet.
“Washington isn’t coming to save us. Trump is only making things worse,” said Sherrill. “We have to stand up on our own two feet and make some tough choices. But that’s fine. I’ve been doing hard things for most of my life – and that’s what I was elected to do…”
Sherrill pledged not to raise taxes, instead directing departments to identify savings. She warned that failure to act could trigger credit downgrades, school funding cuts and other painful consequences under the state’s balanced budget requirement. However, blue states inevitably revert to higher taxes on the middle class (as we are seeing under Mamdani in NYC), because Democrats rely on government handouts and subsidized programs as a way to buy votes.
It is likely that New Jersey residents and businesses will be slapped with high taxes within the next year.
END
CALIFORNIA VS FLORIDA/WEALTH TAX
Two States, Two Visions: California Wants To Add A Wealth Tax; Florida Wants To Remove One
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 – 12:20 PM
Authored by Siri Terjesen & Michael Ryall via The Epoch Times,
While Sacramento legislators debate how to extract more money from residents who are already leaving, Tallahassee legislators are moving in the opposite direction. The fiscal philosophies now playing out in California and Florida represent the starkest tax policy divergence in modern American history—and the numbers tell the story.
In California, there is a $12 billion budget deficit, the product of spending commitments that expanded faster than the revenue base meant to fund them. The legislative response, rather than spending restraint, has been a parade of wealth tax proposals. The latest—Initiative 25-0024, the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act—would impose a one-time 5 percent excise tax on the net worth of California residents exceeding $1 billion as of Jan. 1, 2026. Applied to the state’s approximately 200 billionaires, the measure is projected to raise roughly $100 billion, with 90 percent directed to Medi-Cal.
The details deserve scrutiny. The tax is retroactive: Liability attaches as of Jan. 1, 2026, but the measure cannot be enacted until after a November 2026 election, meaning the law would penalize conduct before the law formally exists. Legal analysts have identified constitutional vulnerabilities on due process, the Dormant Commerce Clause, and uniformity—making the measure’s survival uncertain. More practically, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office has warned that if even a fraction of targeted billionaires depart, the income tax revenue they currently pay disappears with them. The top 1 percent of California taxpayers already account for more than 40 percent of state personal income tax receipts. The margin for error is thin.
This is not California’s first attempt. Assembly Bills 259, 2289, 310, and 2088—all wealth tax proposals—have been introduced and abandoned in the past five years. One proposed exit provision would have continued taxing departing residents for up to 10 years after leaving. The structure prompted one legal commentator to invoke the lyric from “Hotel California”: you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave—fiscally speaking.
The market is responding. Google co-founder Larry Page has reportedly registered Florida LLCs and many other billionaire tech founder CEOs are exploring a move outside California, including Peter Thiel, Sergey Brin, and Mark Zuckerberg. These are rational responses to a state signaling that accumulated wealth is a resource to be liquidated before its owners can move it elsewhere.
Now consider Florida, in which the policy signals are vastly different. The state already has no income tax—a structural advantage that has driven a decade of net migration from high-tax states. Governor Ron DeSantis is now pushing further: a constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot that would eliminate property taxes on homesteaded primary residences. The Florida House passed HJR 203 on Feb. 19, 2025, by an 80–30 party-line vote. If the Senate concurs and 60 percent of voters approve, Florida would become the first state in American history with neither an income tax nor property taxes on primary residences.
The fiscal challenge is real. Property taxes generate roughly $55 billion annually in Florida, funding significant county and municipal services. Critics argue that eliminating them would necessitate either dramatic service cuts or offsetting revenue increases—potentially raising the state sales tax from 6 percent toward 12 percent. Governor DeSantis disputes this, pointing to budget surpluses and government waste that can be redirected. That debate will play out in Tallahassee and at the ballot box.
But the directional signal is unmistakable. California responds to budget pressure by widening the net it casts on wealth. Florida responds by asking whether the net needs to exist at all.
The migration data confirm which model high earners find more credible—and reveal the fiscal irony California is engineering for itself. IRS data show that over the past decade, California has lost $14.5 billion in tax revenue to interstate migration, while Florida has gained $4.1 billion. Goldman Sachs Research, analyzing IRS filings from 2017 to 2023, found that 4 percent of households with more than $1 million in adjusted gross income changed states during that period, with large outflows from California and substantial inflows to Florida—a trend that was still accelerating in 2022 and 2023. Goldman Sachs estimates that tax-driven emigration has already reduced California’s tax revenue by up to 3 percent. U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index ranked California the top outbound state for the second consecutive year and Florida the second-best inbound (behind Texas).
Every high-income household that relocates from Sacramento to South Florida takes its future income tax payments—and its business payroll—with it. California’s proposed billionaire tax may be designed to prevent that exit; the evidence suggests it will accelerate it instead.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report March 3, 2026 Issue 7691 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump won’t rule out sending US troops into Iran ‘if necessary’— tells The Post war is progressing ‘way ahead of schedule’ https://nypost.com/2026/03/02/us-news/trump-wont-rule-out-sending-us-troops-into-iran-if-necessary-tells-the-post-i-dont-care-about-polling/ “We won’t negotiate with the U.S.” – Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council @BrentScher: Israel denies using the Iron Beam that the whole internet is convinced they used. US Central Command @CENTCOM: Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO… Last night, U.S. B-1 bombers, struck deep inside Iran to degrade Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. As the President stated, “we’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.” (The IRGC said it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.) As of 4 pm ET, March 2, six U.S. service members have been killed in action… @Osint613: SEC. RUBIO KEY TAKEAWAYS ON IRAN OPERATION — Iran is producing 100+ ballistic missiles per month and thousands of one way attack drones, aiming to build a retaliatory shield that would make its nuclear program untouchable — Iran is approaching a “point of immunity” within 1 to 1.5 years, where its missile and drone stockpiles would deter any strike — Sanctions have failed to stop the weapons buildup — The operation was timed while Iran is weakened and before it reaches that immunity threshold — U.S. intelligence assessed Iran would immediately retaliate against U.S. forces, so preemptive action reduced potential American casualties — Mission focus is destroying ballistic missile launchers, stockpiles, drone capabilities, and naval assets threatening global shipping — No ground invasion planned; air and missile strikes are sufficient for objectives — Regime change is not the official goal, but the U.S. would welcome the Iranian people replacing the current leadership — Congress was notified through the Gang of Eight and in compliance with the 48 hour War Powers reporting requirement — The U.S. denies targeting civilians and says any alleged incidents are under investigation — Iran controls roughly 20% of global energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz; mitigation plans are being prepared to stabilize markets — No active diplomacy underway; operations will continue as long as necessary with no fixed end date SecRubio: “The hardest hits are yet to come from the U.S. military. The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now… The world will be a safer place when we’re done with this operation. The U.S is preparing for a “major uptick” in attacks in the next 24 hours, an official says – CNN @realDonaldTrump: If I didn’t terminate Obama’s horrendous Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), Iran would have had a Nuclear Weapon three years ago. That was the most dangerous transaction we have ever entered into, and had it been allowed to stand, the World would be an entirely different place right now. You can blame Barack Hussein Obama, and Sleepy Joe Biden… Most people do NOT realize that Iranians are Persians; they are NOT Arabs. Also, since Biblical times, Iran has been aligned with Persia. This is why Kissinger decides to make Iran ‘the policeman of the Middle East’ after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. After the Shah of Iran was toppled in 1979, Iran became the homeland of radical Islam and the epicenter of terrorism as well as hatred for Israel and the USA. Ergo, unlike Iraq, there is a much high chance of a positive effect for the USA and the West in overthrowing the radical Islamic regime and retuning Iran to its historic roots. February ISM Mfg. 52.4, 51.5 expected, 51.2 prior; Prices Paid 70.5, 60 exp, 59 prior US stocks declined smartly in early Monday trading, except Fangs, which rallied on AI-related issue buying. Palantir was +7.28% at 10:58 ET. USHs sank more than 1 point; gold, the dollar, crypto, oil, and gasoline soared. Silver, platinum, and copper declined sharply on economic concerns. ESHs opened sharply lower on Sunday night and proceeded to sink to a daily low of 6678.50 (-110.50) at 3:27 ET. Trader then bought because when Gulf War I commenced ESHs quickly began a big rally after the initial plunge. This pattern has regularly appeared since then. Some belief intervention is a factor. ESHs rallied to 6833.25 at 8:24 ET. After a retreat to 6802.50 at 8:27 ET, ESHs soared to 6877.50 at 10:13 ET in eager buying for the Monday and start-of-March Rallies. After a minor retreat, ESHs stair stepped higher and hit a daily high of 6911.25 (+22.25) at 14:35 ET. After a retreat to 6872.75 at 15:15 ET, ESHs rallied to 6896.75 at 15:57 ET. BBG’s @JavierBlas: WTI settles at $71.23 a barrel, up 6.28% Brent settles at $77.74 a barrel, up 6.70% How does the one-day % price move compares historically (only positive moves)? For WTI, it was the 121st largest (data from 1984). For Brent, it was the 73rd largest (data from 1988) @JacobKinge: Tel Aviv’s stock market has surged 8.65%, its largest single-day gain in history. This comes amid the wavering success of the U.S.–Israel-led war on Iran, which eliminated 93% of Iran’s senior leadership and military officials in the first 12 hours and severely disrupted key military infrastructure. https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/2028523929258656149 Positive aspects of previous session ESHs rallied 142.75 from their low. AI-related stocks soared. Negative aspects of previous session USHs sank as much as 1 8/32; Gold, oil, and gasoline rallied sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar rallied sharply while industrial commodities sank. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6859.83 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6901.01; 6796.85 The FT: People are complacent about risk of financial crisis, says Lloyd Blankfein (Ex-GS CEO) Lloyd Blankfein has one piece of advice for anyone fearing that a financial reckoning is on the horizon: plan like it is coming… https://ft.trib.al/DNmGW3D Stanley Black & Decker to slash 300 jobs, close factory in its Connecticut hometown https://trib.al/MiXoXnM Deerfield-based Walgreens announces nearly 500 corporate employees being laid off in Illinois The layoffs come less than a year after Walgreens announced that it had been acquired by Sycamore Partners, a private equity firm based in New York… https://www.lakemchenryscanner.com/2026/03/01/deerfield-based-walgreens-announces-nearly-500-corporate-employees-being-laid-off-in-illinois/ New Chicago liquor tax (1.5%) officially goes into effect Sunday https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/new-chicago-liquor-tax-officially-goes-into-effect-sunday/3901644/ Iranian missiles hit the US Embassy in Riyadh. Reports say it was vacant at the time. Today – Traders played for the Monday and Start-of-the-Month rallies as well as the big bounce that occurs after a tumble due to US military action – and were greatly rewarded. Barring news, stocks are likely to retrench and wait for developments. Bonds need to rally ASAP or they will hurt stocks. Despite the early success in the attacks on Iran, an ugly development can appear suddenly! NB: The S&P low on Monday was 6796.85. A decisive breach of this level would violate the lower band of the trading range that has endured since November. Expected Economic Data: Feb Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.35m; NY Fed Pres Williams 9:55 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 11:45 ET ESHs are -21.25; NQHs are -95.00; USHs are +2/32; AU, oil, and gasoline are up sharply at 20:06 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6902; 100-day MA: 6833; 150-day MA: 6724; 200-day MA: 6565 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,110;100-day MA: 48,122; 150-day MA: 47,206; 200-day MA: 46,218 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6881.62 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6449.44 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6957.44 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6841.89 triggers a sell signal Daily Mail: Starmer attacked by top US politician over Britain’s ‘pathetic’ failure to support Trump’s strikes on Iran – as Defence Secretary refuses SIX TIMES to say if UK backs American action – Labour’s John Healey repeatedly dodged questions on whether Britain supports Mr Trump’s decision to launch military strikes against Iran. The Defence Secretary refused six times in a TV interview to say if the UK backed the US and Israeli action – or if the Government considered the action to be legal. Mr. Graham (Sen.), a long-serving senator, said it was ‘so sad to see Western democracies lose their passion for justice and a sense of right and wrong the further away from their shores the event occurs’. @visegrad24: British PM Keir Starmer said he stood by his decision not to support U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. “President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes,” Starmer said after Trump criticised him for taking “too long” to allow the U.S. use of air bases. “But it is my duty to judge what is in Britain’s national interest. That is what I’ve done, and I stand by it.” How the Muslim vote is reshaping British politics The size of the Muslim population has reached a critical mass, at which Muslim voters no longer need to press their concerns through a national party… For decades, Muslim voters exercised disproportionate influence over our politics through the Labour Party. Through effective political organisation and lobbying, the Muslim community was able to make itself a core feature of Labour’s support in London, Birmingham and the post-industrial North… Britain is now a country in which national parties compete with explicitly sectarian candidates for the support of particular religious and ethnic groups… The sorry events of the 20th century in Northern Ireland shows where sectarian politics can lead: to social division, ghettoisation and violence… https://thecritic.co.uk/how-the-muslim-vote-is-reshaping-british-politics/ Muammar Gaddafi in a speech on April 10, 2006: “We have 50 million Muslims in Europe. There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe—without swords, without guns, without conquest—will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades“. BBC: Gaddafi wants EU cash to stop African migrants 31 August 2010 Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi says the EU should pay Libya at least 5bn euros (£4bn; $6.3bn) a year to stop illegal African immigration and avoid a “black Europe”… https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11139345 Grinning lunatic wielding 2 giant knives stabs two people in Scotland https://nypost.com/2026/03/02/world-news/grinning-lunatic-wielding-2-giant-knives-stabs-a-pair-in-edinburgh/ Radical Shiite clerics on American soil preach prophetic showdown with US … Hardline Shiite ideologues framing conflict between US, Iran as prophecy for the arrival of the Mahdi, or ‘messiah’… From the mosque in northern Virginia to religious institutions in Michigan and Texas, clerics aligned with the Islamic Republic are advancing a doomsday interpretation of faith that casts geopolitical and military confrontation with the U.S. as part of a prophetic destiny tied to the return of the Mahdi… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chasing-apocalypse-radical-shiite-clerics-american-soil-preach-prophetic-showdown-us WashPost Touts Khamenei as Man With an ‘Easy Smile’ and Love of ‘Poetry’ https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2026/03/01/washpost-touts-khamenei-man-easy-smile-and-love-poetry @EricLDaugh: Democrats are stunned after a MAJOR new poll just found Republicans surged +8 POINTS in the 2026 Congressional ballot — now TIED 50%-50% with Democrats. They were previously trailing by 8, per HarrisX… | |
| The King Report March 4, 2026 Issue 7692 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump: Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said “Too Late!” @RyanAFournier: The Iranian Supreme Council was literally in the middle of counting votes to pick their next Supreme Leader when Israel completely leveled the meeting location. https://x.com/RyanAFournier/status/2028867085653229918 @LizHurra: Israeli Ch 12 + @Jerusalem_Post: Qatar bombed Iran over the past day in retaliation for repeated Iranian missile + drone strikes on Qatar https://t.co/eswkqlGQ7g @BarronTNews_: GOP Sen. Tom Cotton just said Arab nations aren’t begging for peace. They’re asking President Trump for targeting info so they can join the fight against Iran. Read that again. That’s not weakness. That’s a real coalition. When Iran hit them, they didn’t cry to the UN. They lined up with America. Only happens under strength. Only happens under Trump. The region is done tolerating a Revolutionary Iran…. https://x.com/BarronTNews_/status/2028832546285322589 Spain, a NATO member, and reputed US ally will NOT allow the US to use bases in Spain to hit Iran per the order of its socialist PM, Pedro Sanchez Perez Castejon. Spain refuses to provide military support for US attack on Iran and distances itself from France, Germany and the UK https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-03-02/spain-refuses-to-provide-military-support-for-us-attack-on-iran-and-distances-itself-from-france-germany-and-the-uk.html Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón is a Spanish politician who has served as Prime Minister of Spain since 2018. He has also been Secretary-General of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party since 2017… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez Trump: “Some European nations have been helpful, and some have not, and I’m very surprised. Germany has been great. He’s (Chancellor Merz) been terrific… The head of NATO is fantastic… Spain said we cannot use their bases…Spain has absolutely NOTHING that we need other than great people… They have great people… They don‘t have great leadership. The only country in NATO that would not agree to go up to 5%. They wanted to keep it at 2% and they don‘t pay the 2%. We will cut off all trade with Spain. We don‘t want anything to do with Spain… By the way, I’m not happy with the UK either… The UK has been very, very uncooperative with that stupid island (Chagos) that they have… They ruin relationships. It’s a shame. This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.” https://x.com/townhallcom/status/2028886173175693479 @OliLondonTV: UK PM Keir Starmer tells Muslims at Ramadan Iftar event he wants to “make clear” the UK wasn’t involved in Iran strikes. “On Iran, I want to make clear the UK was not involved in the offensive strikes of the U.S. and Israel.” https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/2028999714465882369 @disclosetv: Germany’s Merz supports U.S. embargoing Spain, claims it’s to “convince” them to increase NATO spending. https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2028885697612902749 @johnkonrad: Spain is already under investigation and is facing severe penalties with @FMC_gov for denying US Merchant Marine ships carrying military supplies access to their ports: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-maritime-regulator-weighs-severe-penalties-in-escalating-spain-port-probe/ Given UK’s belated and grudging approval for the US to use UK bases and Spain’s refusal to use its bases, it is paramount that the US obtain or make a deal with Greenland. The UK and Spain just proved that Trump is correct in putting US bases in Greenland. Trump: “The attack that we did known as Midnight Hammer, had we not done that, Iran would’ve had a very powerful nuclear weapon within one month… Barack Hussein Obama made maybe the worst deal that I’ve ever seen because he gave all power in the Middle East to Iran... If I didn’t terminate that deal, they would be sitting with a massive nuclear weapon 3 years ago.” https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2028886285566333011 @jenvanlaar: VINTAGE Trump right now on the deal “Barack Hussein Obama” made with Iran “giving them everything, including plane loads of cash…they took out all of the seats. It was loaded with green cash, so much cash that you could — it was in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. They got all the cash from all the banks and they flew it to Iran. I never knew a President had that power. I’m gonna maybe try it sometime if it’s okay. I think I’m gonna do it. I’ll fly it somewhere.”… @LauraLoomer: Obama’s former CIA Director John Brennan converted to Islam between 1996 and 1999 when he was the CIA station chief in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. At the CIA, he had an Islamic prayer mat on his wall in his office and is on video speaking about “my Muslim faith” when speaking to a Muslim student during a speaking gig. Brennan also speaks fluent Arabic. He is a Muslim. @townhallcom: REPORTER: Who do you have in mind to lead Iran? POTUS: Most of the people we had in mind are dead. Now we have another group that may also be dead. So i guess you have a 3rd wave coming in. Soon we won’t have anybody… If you look at Iraq, where STUPIDLY everybody was fired…ISIS was formed…We don’t believe in that. We’ll see what happens. First we have to finish off the military. https://x.com/townhallcom/status/2028883879843553521 @ricwe123: Israeli experts are now sounding the alarm: Iranian cluster missiles can split into as many as 80 sub-missiles, hitting multiple targets simultaneously. They’re calling it an unprecedented weapon. The bigger question: how did Iran even get its hands on such technology in a country where scientists are constantly being assassinated? It’s hard to ignore the possibility that China and Russia handed this deadly know-how straight to Tehran. https://x.com/ricwe123/status/2028724201406750988 Chinese state-run media promotes anti-Iran War protests organized by CCP-linked Singham Network – China helps promote astroturfed far-left protests against the U.S. strikes on Iran through a financial network in league with infamous radical-left financier and multi-millionaire Neville Roy Singham. China has a lot at stake in the outcome of the conflict… https://justthenews.com/government/security/chinese-state-run-media-promote-anti-iran-war-protests-organized-ccp-linked Because a critical mass of traders played for the Monday and Start-of-the-Month rallies on Monday, equities tumbled on Tuesday in early trading. This was delayed reaction to the reality of higher energy prices and the collapse of the possibility of Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. @EdConwaySky: The near 100% rise in UK wholesale gas prices in the past 48 hours is now the biggest two-day rise since comparable records began in the 1990s. Bigger even than any two-day period in the early days of the Ukraine war… https://t.co/sjblAp5q8y Bloomberg (@business): Kansas City Fed’s Jeff Schmid reiterated that inflation is too high, adding that the latest numbers suggest it’s nearly a percentage point above the US central bank’s target. Stocks plunged early but recovered most of the losses by midday. The DJIA hit -1277.93 at 10:28 ET but closed -403.51. ESHs opened modestly lower on Monday night and proceeded to cascade to a daily low of 6718.75 at 10:27 ET. Conditioned dip buyers and traders playing for the 2nd-Hour Reversal then aggressively bought. ESHs intractably rallied to 6849.75 at 14:46 ET. Trader selling then dropped ESHs down to 6815.25 at 15:52 ET. ESHs then went inert. After the close, CrowdStrike reported Q4 adjusted EPS $1.21, consensus $1.10; Q4 revenue $1.31B, consensus $1.3B. It sees Q1 Rev of $1.36B t0 $1.36B, $1.36B expected. CRWD spiked to 409.00 (+17.58) and then sank to 371.21 (-20.21) at 16:07 ET. The McDonald’s CEO Can’t Seem to Stomach His Own Burger Chris Kempczinski meant to celebrate the new flagship Big Arch but became a case study in what happens when leaders stop using what they sell… The bite itself—like a man defusing something—was not a bite at all. It was a clip of the outer edge, while he disconcertingly talked about it as the “product.” Then “this thing.”… There’s a simple brief to any CEO suddenly confronted with that most dangerous of things: their own product. Consume it… https://www.adweek.com/brand-marketing/the-mcdonalds-ceo-cant-seem-to-stomach-his-own-burger/ @anothercohen: Can’t believe the Burger King CEO just burgermogged the McDonald’s CEO with more aura than any corporate moid has ever had. bro is frame dominant with a Whopper. it’s over for the golden arches. (side-by-side bite pics at link) https://x.com/anothercohen/status/2028846249500102895 Burger King President hilariously trolls McDonald’s CEO’s viral taste test video in a battle of the burgers https://trib.al/OZuMW9i @nypost: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro tore into Apple CEO Tim Cook on this week’s episode of “Pod Force One” with @mirandadevine, accusing Cook of “lying” about reshoring iPhone production in the U.S. https://x.com/nypost/status/2026662560938795408 Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply after a 1st-Hour plunge. The NY Fang+ Index finished +6.41. Precious metals got killed on the broad liquidation that occurred on Tuesday. Negative aspects of previous session USHs were -6/32 at the NYSE close. Energy commodities soared. The S&P 500 Index decisively breached the lower bank of the 3-month trading rectangle. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Possible manipulation pushed the S&P 500 Index back into the trading rectangle. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6789.03 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6840.05; 6710.05 @susancrabtree: NEW INFO RE: The Iranian asset who was working to hire hitmen to assassinate President Trump in 2024. Per the NYTimes, the FBI bought strippers for alleged Iranian operative Asif Merchant who was attempting to hire hitmen to assassinate President Trump when he was arrested on J12, the day before the Butler attempt on Trump’s life. Here’s the http:// X.com story thread I wrote about the FBI’s written interview/proffer of Merchant, a document I attained from @chuckgrassley ‘s office website before they took it down. I also wrote a story about what I knew about this Iranian threat and how some U.S. protective agencies at the time had been penetrated by Iranian assets. The link for that @RCPolitics story I wrote in on Aug. 24, 2024 is included in the thread. https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/1831755645290504556 Now we know why there is still mystery over the alleged Butler shooter; why his body was quickly cremated; why his social media was scrubbed; why his parents went silent; and why US intel and the FBI have gone silent on this. Poland Will Eventually Seek Its Own Nuclear Weapons, Tusk Says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signaled his country will eventually try to obtain its own nuclear weapons as Europe strengthens deterrence amid doubts over US commitment to defending the continent. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/poland-will-eventually-seek-its-own-nuclear-weapons-tusk-says @Barchart: S&P 500 closes below its 100-day moving average by the largest margin since May https://x.com/Barchart/status/2028943707551027520 Trump said the US Navy will escort ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Reportedly US B52s are bombing Iran as we write. This means Iran’s air defense has been decimated. Today – The S&P 500 Index decisively breached the lower bank of the 3-month trading rectangle. However, aggressive buying, and perhaps manipulation, forced the index back into the trading rectangle. The desperate effort closed the S&P 500 Index at 6816.63. The game for today is to keep the S&P 500 Index from breaching its lower trading band for the 2nd time in two sessions. For decades major technical breaches have been reversed by the usual, and something stealthy, suspects. It usually takes multiple downside breaches to generate downside momentum. Expected Economic Data: Feb Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.35m; NY Fed Pres Williams 9:55 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 11:45 ET ESHs are -25.25; NQHs are -103.00; USHs are -3/32; AU, oil, and gasoline are up modestly at 20:55 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6903; 100-day MA: 6834; 150-day MA: 6726; 200-day MA: 6570 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,123;100-day MA: 48,141; 150-day MA: 47,230; 200-day MA: 46,250 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6816.63 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6449.44 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6943.07 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6852.90 triggers a buy signal mRNA creator @RWMaloneMD: The amount of people who hate those who are Jewish or of Jewish origin in the comments on my feed is astounding. I never thought I would see this much racism in the USA in my lifetime again. It is shocking and disgusting. So, basically – I am just hiding those replies and blocking a lot, and when I write, a lot of people – I am not kidding. I hope one day, they come to understand that this is another type of mass formation – just like what happened under Hitler. @RNCResearch: Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse quite literally voted to halt funding for FEMA, TSA, and the Coast Guard KNOWING ICE was already funded. Now, he’s lying and trying to convince you otherwise because he knows it was a disgusting and reckless thing to do. https://t.co/VnZXz86YEA @alx: Dem Senator Chris Coons: “Will you rule out the deployment of ICE or CBP to polling places this November?” Secretary Kristi Noem: “Do you plan on illegals voting in our elections, Senator?” https://x.com/alx/status/2028887246770692428 @RNCResearch: Bill Clinton says he brought JB Pritzker on pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s plane: “I think that I had my first trip for the man who’s now the Governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker and his wife.” https://x.com/rncresearch/status/2028647022119551010 (Pritzker denied this, of course.) @DarrenBaileyIL: A FOIA document catches JB Pritzker asking Clinton’s team to keep their correspondence off government servers. This is a Clinton Foundation world accused of selling government access for donations. What was so important it couldn’t leave a paper trail? https://x.com/DarrenBaileyIL/status/2028944362776998201 @RedPandaKoala: US Congressman Eric Burlison notes that the Clinton staffer who signed Jeffrey Epstein into the White House 17 times died by “suicide.” https://x.com/RedPandaKoala/status/2028913707666014278 @WallStreetMav: Despite getting outspent 20 to 1, Ken Paxton will likely beat RINO Sen John Cornyn today in the Texas Senate primary. The swamp Sen John Thune spent $70 million in campaign funds to try to save Cornyn. That is $70 million that he could have used in Georgia or North Carolina. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Nancy Mace And Ilhan Omar Go Full Jerry Springer Over Iran
Tuesday, Mar 03, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Rep. Nancy Mace obliterated Ilhan Omar on X after the Somali-born Democrat raged about U.S. strikes on Iran during Ramadan, escalating calls to expose Omar’s alleged immigration fraud and boot her back to Somalia.
The feud erupted over the weekend when Mace trolled Omar and fellow Squad member Rashida Tlaib, sending them “thoughts and prayers” over the confirmed death of Iran’s Ayatollah in the U.S. strikes.
Omar fired back, accusing Mace of being drunk: “I hope you aren’t drunk and took your staff’s advice, Rashida and I don’t know this man and feel confident he didn’t care about us. Please restrain from drinking too much as you have been warned from your staff and stay off social media when you are drunk. I pray in his holy month you find peace and respect for your self.”
Mace then hit Omar with a direct reference to long-standing allegations of marrying her brother for immigration fraud.
Mace doubled down Sunday on NewsMax with Ed Henry, dismissing Omar’s complaints about the timing of the strikes. “I don’t give a damn if it’s Ramadan. I don’t care if Muslims are fasting right now,” Mace said, adding “This was the right time with the right Intel, the right President, to go in there and do this.”
She then called for action: “I’m ready to denaturalize and deport her to Somalia.”
This isn’t the first time Mace has targeted Omar over immigration fraud claims. Just last week, Mace pushed the House Oversight Committee to subpoena records related to Omar, her former spouses, and family, aiming to prove allegations of marriage fraud to evade U.S. immigration laws. Federal marriage fraud carries penalties including prison, fines, denaturalization, and deportation.
The two have sparred since last year when Mace attempted to censure Omar over vile comments she made following the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
The push follows a Justice Department probe into Omar’s finances and foreign ties that stalled under Biden but has been revived by Trump, who accused Omar of amassing up to $30 million in family wealth after arriving from Somalia with little.
Adding fuel, an investigation revealed Omar’s husband’s winery as a fake shell for alleged money laundering, with no license or operations despite revenue jumping to $5 million.
As Rashida Tlaib was caught chanting “KKK” during Republican “USA!” chants at Trump’s State of the Union, Omar also heckled Trump during the address, refusing to apologise and then bizarrely invoking racial slurs.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER
Silver Lights Fuse of Derivatives Time Bomb – Bill Holter
By Greg Hunter On March 4, 2026 In Market Analysis2 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) predicted that by March, silver would likely suffer a failure to deliver physical metal at COMEX. In other words, demand for physical silver will swamp the existing supply. The math is scary and simple, and Holter breaks it down, “The registered inventory at COMEX in silver is 86 million ounces. On the second day of March, there are already 52 million ounces of silver standing for delivery. That leaves 30 million to 35 million ounces unspoken for. . .. This looks dicey. If they have 52 million ounces standing for delivery now, where is it going to be at the end of the month? If silver fails to deliver, then what you are going to have in the gold market is buyers stepping up that normally would not even buy and ask for delivery. . .. The bottom line is if silver fails to deliver, gold will fail to deliver in 24 hours. Once that happens, then confidence breaks. . .. You are looking at two quadrillion dollars in derivatives in a global economy with $350 trillion in debt with an underlying $100 trillion annual GDP. The math does not work. I think silver, and I have said this for many years, silver will be the spark or the fuse that lights off gold, which then lights off the derivatives time bomb. Warren Buffett calls derivatives weapons of mass financial destruction.”
Mr. Gold thinks, “When the system resets, governments will start a money print fest that will touch off global hyperinflation. . .. The pure math of debt outstanding is that it cannot be repaid in current terms. It will be hyperinflation of the things we need and hyper-deflation of the things we already have. . .. How is somebody going to buy your house if the capital is not there? If the capital is not there, then the price is going to have to come down. . .. It is highly likely that silver will kick off the demise of the financial system.”
Mr. Gold thinks this kind of global debt will go bad fast. Holter warns, “When this thing cascades and collapses, you are either in place, or you are out of place. If you are out of place, you will not be able to repair your mistake. It will be a lifetime mistake to have not gotten ready. Let me just say there is a difference in being early and being wrong. In 2000 to 2005, if you were buying gold or you were buying silver, you were an idiot, a complete idiot, and people thought you walked around with a tin foil hat on. . .. Now, we are at the point where the best place to have invested your money since January 2000 would be in gold or silver. When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong–he was just early.”
You can get more information at Sat123.com, Darkbags.com and Starlink123.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a human for information on anything they sell, including Faraday bags and clothing.
There is much more in the 50-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as silver becomes the first domino to fall that forces the financial system to begin a massive global reset for 3.3.26.
(To Donate to USAW click here)
After the Interview:
https://usawatchdog.com/silver-lights-fuse-of-derivatives-time-bomb-bill-holter
Bill Holter’s website BillHolter.com just keeps growing. There are lots of new free articles.
harveyorganblog.com 
