GOLD CLOSED CLOSED DOWN $53.80 TO $5095.70
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $5133.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 86.17 3;30 PM
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 5,146.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/06/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 03/10/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 349
323 H HSBC 3
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 38
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 25
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 267
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 92
TOTAL: 387 387
MONTH TO DATE: 5,178
JPMORGAN STOPPED 92/387
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MARCH/2026: 387 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 38,700 OZ or 1.2037 TONNES
total notices so far: 5178 contracts for 517,800 OR 16.1057 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 149 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.745 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6615 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 33.075 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 145 CONTRACTS OR .725 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.735 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 22.385 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF ISLVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.725 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.735 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2861 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.780 TONNES/
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2862 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.780 TONNES OF GOLD./
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2862 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.780 TONNES/
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 83.75 TONNES//WILL BE VERY STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
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SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 52 CONTRACTS OI TO 113,532 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 112,794 CONTRACTS MARCH 4/2026
EFP ISSUANCE 370 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 370 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 52 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 370 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 318 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $2.02
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.590 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.02
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 9/2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.59 PTS OR 0.67%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 248.83 PTS OR 1.35%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2913.35 PTS OR 5.24%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.9181
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9210 Oil UP TO 102.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 103.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.9181 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9210 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5663 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 405,841 OI DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $77.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT HUGE PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD . AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (905).
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS STARTED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY LONG THIS MONTH AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GOING NET SHORT AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MARCH CONTRACT MONTH!!
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM ITS LOW POINT IN OI TO NOW 405,841 AND FROM THIS POINT FORTH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE CROOKS TO FLEECE OUR NEWBIE SPEC LONGS. THE ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI IS 390,000 CONTRACTS WHICH OCCURRED IN 2001 WITH GOLD AROUND $260. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT TODAY, THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND 1 TO 2 %.(SILVER IS AT 7%) RECENT ALL TIME LOWS FOR COMEX OI PRIOR TO TODAY IS AROUND 409,000 . SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NEW NADIR IS AROUND 405,000 CONTRACTS
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 4758 CONTRACTS (OR 14.799 TONNES) DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE, FRIDAY.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. WE HAVE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE THUS FAR FOR FEB NOW REMAINS AT SIX.(31.251 TONNES)
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MARCH:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUAY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MARCH COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4758 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MARCH/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A HUMONGOUS SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 19,705 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUOUS RAIDS THIS COMING WEEK.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SO FAR.. BUT DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE:
FOR EXAMPLE:
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 11 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2861//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 16.780 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MARCH,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $77.25 )
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE .. BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI // BUT WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY’S ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (157 TONNES) AND ALSO MARCH’S STANDING OF 16+ TONNES.
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO MARCH:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP 0.2862 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 16.780 TONNES/
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $77.25
WE HAD A HUGE 4015 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 4758 CONTRACTS OR 475,800 OZ OR 14.799 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MARCH 9
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) HSBC 128,636.151 oz (4001 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 39,627.688 oz total withdrawal: 168,263.839 oz or 5.401 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 387 CONTRACTS OR 38,700 OZ 1.2037 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 219 contracts 21,900 OZ 0.6811 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5178 notices 517,800 oz 16.1057 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
0 entry
customer withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) HSBC 128,636.151 oz (4001 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 39,627.688 oz
total withdrawal: 168,263.839 oz or 5.401 tonnes
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 2
dealer to customer account: Brinks
i) 71,466.644 oz
ii) customer to dealer: JPMorgan:
10,213.708 oz
net leaving dealer accts 61,252.936 oz or 1.905 tonnes
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH
THE FRONT MONTH OF MARCH STANDS AT 606 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 574 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
666 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 92 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 9200 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THE TONNAGE EQUATES TO 0.2361 TONNES, A FAIR SIZED QUEUE JUMP.
APRIL IS THE NEXT LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH AND IT LOST 10,595 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 252,279 CONTRACTS. APRIL IS NOW THE NEW FRONT MONTH FOR DELIVERY OF GOLD. APRIL IS GENERALLY A VERY LARGE MONTH AND AN ACTIVE MONTH FOR GOLD.
MAY LOST 9 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 737.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY A STRONG 5688 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 88,205
We had 387 contracts filed for today representing 38700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 387 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 92 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAR. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5178) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (606 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (387 x 100 oz per contract) equals 539,700 OZ OR (16.780 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month: No of notices filed so far (5178 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAR (606 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (387 x 100 oz) which equals 539,700 OZ OR 16.780 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in MAR is 16.780 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH 16.780 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 209,792 fair
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,717,146.01 oz 53.410 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,717,146.010 tonnes oz 52.58 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 32,918,614.591 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,838,616,626 or 523.440 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 16,074,997.965 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 15,121,470 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
470.341 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
MARCH 9 2026
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) out of Asahi 1,002,692.770 oz ii) Out of CNT 532,445.900 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan: 19,329.800 oz iv) Out of Manfra 1,284,641.702 oz v) Out of Stonex;; 19,731.120 oz total withdrawal: 1,858,841.292 oz the comex is being drained of silver |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT ENTRIES: 1 i)Into Delaware: 918.300 oz total deposit: 918.300 oz oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 149 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.745 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1132 Contracts (5.660 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6615 contracts 33.075 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 1
i)Into Delaware: 918.300 oz
total deposit: 918.300 oz oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits into dealer account: 0
0 ENTRY
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
5 entries
i) out of Asahi 1,002,692.770 oz
ii) Out of CNT 532,445.900 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 19,329.800 oz
iv) Out of Manfra 1,284,641.702 oz
v) Out of Stonex;; 19,731.120 oz
total withdrawal: 1,858,841.292 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 3//all dealer to customer acct
customer acct to dealer; (eligible to registered)
i) Brinks 755,150.320 oz
ii) Manfra 458,642.782 oz
iii) Stonex 531,345.070 oz
total removal from the registered silver to eligible silver
1,745,139.172 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.988 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 346.287 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MARCH
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2026 OI: 1281 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 366 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 511 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 145 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 0.725 MILLION OZ OF SILVER WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THIS IS A HUGE QUEUE JUMP
APRIL, THE NEW FRONT MONTH SAW A GAIN OF 65 CONTRACTS UP TO 1335 CONTRACTS
MAY SAW A 31 CONTRACT LOSS DOWN TO 76,948 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAY A LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 241 OI CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 149 or 0.745 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 50,356 fair+++//
AND NOW MARCH. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6615 X5,000 oz = 33/075 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH (1281) AND the number of notices served upon today (387)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH 2026 contract month: (6615)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH(1281) minus number of notices served upon today (149 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the FEB..contract month equating to 38.735 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 38.735 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL LOWISH FOR A GENERALLY HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
New total standing: 38.735 million oz.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are ONLY 79.988 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 152.775/346.287.million: 44.21%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
FEB 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $148.25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $79.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 18/2026/WITH GOLD UP $102.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 17/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $136.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077..04 TONNES
FEB 13/2026/WITH GOLD UP $94.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.140 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1076.18 TONNES
FEB 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $143.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.32 TONNES
FEB 11/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.65 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.34 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.32 TONNES
FEB 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1075.894 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
FEB 20 WITH SILVER UP $4.85 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.035 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.853 MILLION OZ
FEB 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 5.798 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.888 MILLION OZ
FEB 18 WITH SILVER UP $4.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 11.325 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.686 MILLION OZ
FEB 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.39 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.253 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.753 MILLION OZ
FEB 13 WITH SILVER UP $2.35 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.994 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.011 MILLION OZ
FEB 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $8.78 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.005 MILLION OZ
FEB 11 WITH SILVER UP $3.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 815,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.370 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.21 NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.555 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 506.747 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
.2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Inflationary consequences of the war
Financial markets face a crisis. The virtual cessation of Middle Eastern energy supplies will have very serious consequences for global inflation, bond yields, and the dollar itself.
| Alasdair MacleodMar 7∙Paid |
Introduction
Like rabbits caught in the headlights of an oncoming car, investors barely moved in the face of last week’s events in Islamic lands. With the oil price moving sharply higher on Friday, there is bound to be a dawning realisation in the coming weeks that there’s an inflation shock coming. It is not yet seen to be serious, because there’s an assumption that the combined US-Israeli attack on Iran will be over in a week of two with Iran’s defeat and that normality will return.
This is a mistake that underestimates Iran, pandering to Western propaganda. It ignores that both the US and Israel are short on ordnance and missiles, while in fear of the Great Satan Iran has been growing and evolving its arsenal for 40 years.
Whatever the outcome, US involvement appears to be the height of hubristic folly. Short of a nuclear detonation, Hormuz will be closed for an extended period. Iran is also spreading its counterattacks not just to US bases in the region, but to energy infrastructure in the Gulf and Azerbaijan, whose Baku pipeline is a major supplier to Israel. Not yet in the headlines, the Houthis in Yemen are likely to seal off the Red Sea and Suez as well.
Aware of the dangers of further escalation, GCC member states are reported to be desperately seeking an early end to the conflict. In addition to loss of oil and LNG revenues, they know that the blockade of inbound container ships through Hormuz will create enormous economic damage for them, with essential supplies including food rapidly running short. And they will be praying that Iran doesn’t attack water desalination plants upon which the region relies heavily.
Doubtless, in a few years’ time volumes will be written about the consequences of all this folly. But the purpose of this article is to concentrate on just one aspect: the shock to the Western financial system. And we should note that following the Covid shock, inflation began rising almost immediately, as the BLS chart of US CPI change below demonstrates:
It rose from 0.1% in May 2020 to 9.1% in June 2022. The sharp rise, which was unexpected by financial analysts at the time, forced interest rates higher as central banks complied with their inflation mandate and bond yields rose sharply higher as well. The oil price had already risen from its low in April 2020, finally peaking at $115 in May 2020.
In February 2022, Russia commenced her Special Military Operation against Ukraine, which led to Russian oil and gas being sanctioned, though in practice flows into Europe and elsewhere didn’t cease. By then, oil had already risen to $90. The point being made here is that inflation and US bond yields rose at the same time as the oil price. The consequences for bond yields are illustrated below:
The question arising is what happens to inflation and bond yields in 2026, assuming no quick resolution to the Iranian conflict and that Hormuz remains effectively closed? We can then expect far higher oil prices with second-order effects on petrochemicals, fertilizers, and other chemical derivatives. In 2020-2022 they brought forward the inflationary consequences of Covid’s currency debasement, along with a sharp rise in bond yields. They could do so again.
If oil prices head much higher, there are bound to be similar effects to the post-covid experience in the coming months. Not only will the yield on the 10-year UST note break higher, but in all likelihood significantly so. It will bring forward the debt-cum-credit crisis that was already brewing, crashing equities and the economy as overleveraged businesses fail. Already there’s a run developing on leveraged private equity reflected in mutual funds such as Blackrock’s, illustrating the fragility of the credit system at current interest rates, let alone higher ones.
Already, equity markets are more overvalued relative to bond yields than in the last 40 years, and probably forever. This is shown in our last chart:
Further increases in the long bond yield will crash the extremely overvalued equity market as well as undermining the very existence of the financial system.
The Fed and US Treasury will have a choice: Expand QE without limit in an attempt to rescue everyone and support the equity market or just stand back and let nature take its course. Either the dollar ‘s purchasing power collapses or everyone else’s does, and then the dollar does anyway.
That’s why central banks are selling paper currencies for gold. And why China has told its banks to sell their US treasury bonds.
END
JESSE COLUMBO…
This is a post from Jesse Colombo’s The Bubble Bubble Report—a bestselling newsletter focusing on precious metals investing and global economic risks. We specialize in detailed reports and analyses.
A Precious Metals & Miners Update
Despite the recent Iran-related volatility, both the short-term uptrend and the broader secular bull market remain intact.
| Jesse ColomboMar 8∙Paid |
It’s that time of the week again when we take a look at where precious metals and mining stocks stand from a technical analysis perspective. The past week has brought heightened uncertainty following the joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, which has buffeted financial markets, including precious metals. The good news is that precious metals are holding their ground and appear to be stabilizing, setting up another opportunity to continue their rally soon, as we will see in the charts.
As usual, we’ll start with gold, which leads the broader precious metals complex. After an initial rise on Monday, gold fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping 4.43% as it was caught up in a broad-based financial market liquidation that pulled down nearly every asset class except crude oil and the U.S. dollar. That reaction is not particularly surprising after a shock of this magnitude. In times like these, investors often sell whatever they can and scramble for cash, sometimes temporarily throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
The good news is that gold stabilized after Tuesday’s shock and has begun to recover. On Friday, it surged $88 per ounce, or 1.73%, after a shockingly weak U.S. February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs instead of the expected gain of 50,000.
Despite the short-term volatility, gold is currently in a strong uptrend, as confirmed by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average. That uptrend creates a clear positive bias to the upside, with pullbacks and corrections tending to be short lived.
To learn more about this type of analysis, I recommend reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.
The current precious metals bull market is only two years old. Historically, these cycles last an average of thirteen years, and I expect this one to meet or exceed that duration, as I explained in a recent must-read report. With gold still early in its cycle, short-term pullbacks are nothing to worry about. Gold, and silver by extension, still has much further to rise before this secular bull market has run its course.
I also want to highlight something interesting on gold’s one-hour intraday chart. Gold appears to have formed a triangle pattern after Tuesday’s Iran-related shock and broke out of it on Friday. That breakout suggests the pullback may be over and that near-term momentum is turning back to the upside as safe-haven demand returns.
Silver was hit harder on Monday and Tuesday after the initial Iran shock, which is not terribly surprising. Silver is more volatile than gold and is more sensitive to economic conditions because of its significant industrial demand.
The good news is that silver continues to hold above the $70 to $80 support zone and remains in a strong uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average. Both of these factors increase the likelihood that silver will continue its upward trajectory once the choppy consolidation period that began in late January is complete.
As with gold, I continue to be very bullish on silver and believe it is only two years into a secular bull market that will last a decade or more. With that long-term perspective, short-term fluctuations in silver do not concern me or alter my thesis.
As a primarily industrial metal rather than a traditional safe-haven asset, platinum experienced a pullback over the past week following the Iran-related shock.
Fortunately, platinum continues to hold above the $1,800 to $2,100 support zone and remains in a strong uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average.
As with gold and silver, I remain a long-term bull on the platinum group metals, and the recent volatility does nothing to alter my outlook.
Like platinum, palladium was swept up in last week’s Iran-related liquidation. Even so, it continues to hold above the $1,520 to $1,680 support zone and is still in a strong uptrend, as confirmed by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average.
Next, let’s look at gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
On Monday, GDX made an admirable attempt to break out above its late January high but was unfortunately caught up in the broad Iran-related liquidation that affected most commodities (aside from oil), as well as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even U.S. Treasury bonds.
That said, it is still in a strong technical position because it continues to hold above the $85 to $90 support zone and remains in a clear uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average. As the dust from the initial shock continues to settle, I expect gold miners to attract renewed buying interest and resume their upward trajectory.
I am very bullish on gold mining stocks over the long term for the same reasons I am bullish on gold itself, as I explained in this report. That is why short-term volatility does not concern me as this still-young bull market continues to unfold.
Junior gold miners, as represented by the GDXJ ETF, also attempted a breakout above the late January high but were thwarted by the Iran-related liquidation shock. Despite that setback, I am optimistic because GDXJ continues to hold above the $112 to $120 support zone and is still in a confirmed uptrend according to its upward-sloping 200-day moving average.
Silver miners, as represented by the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), pulled back after testing the $120 resistance level. However, like gold miners, they are still in a strong technical position because SIL continues to hold above the $80 to $90 support zone and is in a confirmed uptrend according to its 200-day moving average.
Finally, junior silver miners, as represented by SILJ, bumped their head at the late January peak but are still in a strong technical position, holding above the $27 to $30 support zone and maintaining a confirmed uptrend according to the 200-day moving average.
In the final chart, we’ll take a look at where the U.S. Dollar Index stands because it is one of the most important influences on precious metals prices. Dollar strength is typically bearish for precious metals, and dollar weakness tends to support them.
The dollar, in terms of its exchange rate against other currencies rather than its purchasing power, was one of the few beneficiaries of last week’s Iran-related shock. During market shocks, investors often liquidate assets and move into cash and cash equivalents, which tends to push the dollar higher. That behavior contributed to the downward pressure on precious metals early last week.
After last week’s surge, the U.S. Dollar Index is once again below the key 100 resistance level that I have been monitoring and pointing out for nearly a year. As you can see, 100 is a level the index has attempted to break above multiple times but has failed to do so. My suspicion is that this may happen again, especially given how overvalued the dollar is along with other factors I explained in a recent report. If the Dollar Index once again fails to break above the 100 resistance level and pulls back, that should help precious metals rebound.
To summarize, precious metals and miners are recouping the losses they incurred early last week after the initial shock of the attack on Iran. It is important to keep in mind that despite the recent volatility, both the short-term uptrend and the broader secular bull market remain intact. That means pullbacks are likely to be short-lived and give way to further upside, especially if gold soon steps back into its traditional safe-haven role, which is likely. As always, I will keep you posted on what I am seeing.
Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.
All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 9/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.59 PTS OR 0.67%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 248.83 PTS OR 1.35%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2913.35 PTS OR 5.24%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.9181
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9210 Oil UP TO 102.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 103.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.9181 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.9210 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9181
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.9220
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 348.83 PTS OR 1.35%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 2917.35 PTS OR 5.24%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 102.13
BRENT; 103.66
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.20 /// EURO FALLS TO 1.1552 DOWN 66 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +2.189/ UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.46… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.453 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.9181 (DOWN) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.9220
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.8836 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.690 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.407
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.598
3j Gold at $5108.50 Silver at: 83.94 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 77/100 roubles/78.23
3m oil (WTI) into the 102 dollar handle for WTI and 103 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.82 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.189% UP 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.453 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7794 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9004 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.169 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.793 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.613 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.08 UP 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7440 UP 11 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.374 UP 7 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.414 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.953 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Tumble But Off Session Lows On Expectations Of Global SPR Release
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 08:38 AM
US futures tumbled and oil surged as the war in Iran showed little sign of deescalating over the weekend and led to more major Middle East producers curbing output. Still, futures retraced more than 50% off the overnight lows as WTI nearly touched $120 overnight, the highest since 2022, before dropping back to around $100 after a report G7 countries may release 300 million to 400 million barrels, or around 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion barrels in strategic reserve. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1%, although well off session lows, having tumbled as much as 2% earlier before the SPR news hit; in pre-market trading, Mag7 names are weaker, but certain AI plays are positive pre-mkt with Energy the standout sector and Defense bid higher, too. Generally, Defensives over Cyclicals. Bonds deepened losses while the dollar hit its highest level since January. Bond yields are higher, bear flattening, but Treasuries are outperforming global peers with European bonds in freefall due to fears of a spike in inflation driven by higher gas prices; Commodities are stronger led by Energy with all segments / sub-segments higher ex-precious metals which are being sold to fund margin calls in oil. WTI Crude futures have pared an increase of as much as 31% to about 13% but remain highest since 2022 as the war in the Middle East restricts supply via the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s US economic data slate includes February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am. Reports ahead this week include CPI, personal income and spending (includes PCE price indexes), 4Q GDP revision, JOLTS job openings and industrial production
In premarket trading, oil and gas companies are extending gains during the turmoil in energy markets. Among movers: Chevron (CVX) +0.7%, Exxon (XOM) +0.8%, APA (APA) +2%. Magnificent Seven stocks are all lower (Alphabet -1.4%, Amazon -1%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Microsoft -1.1%, Tesla -1.8%, Apple -0.7%, Nvidia -0.8%).
- Airline and mining stocks tumble on the higher energy prices and concern over weaker economic growth. Delta (DAL) falls 3% and Alaska (ALK) is down 3%.
- Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) rises 4% after saying it received its first volume order for its 1.6T data center transceivers from one of its long-term major hyperscale customers to boost its network bandwidth for AI workloads.
- Dianthus Therapeutics (DNTH) climbs 22% after announcing an early “GO” decision based on an interim responder analysis in a Phase 3 trial of claseprubart in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy.
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) jumps 39% after Bloomberg News reported that Novo Nordisk plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on the telehealth company’s platform, ending a public feud.
- Jefferies (JEF) falls 3% after being downgraded to equal-weight by Morgan Stanley analysts who cite credit concerns due to the bank’s exposure to the bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands and the failed UK lender MFS.
- Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV) rises 7% after Politico reported that the company reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in its antitrust case and will pay $200 million in damages to participating states.
- PG&E Corp. (PCG) climbs 1.4% after UBS raised its recommendation on the utilities company to buy on improvements in wildfire policy and affordability.
- Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) soars 43% after announcing its experimental epilepsy drug azetukalner met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial for focal onset seizures
In corporate news, billionaire Leo KoGuan doubled his stake in Nvidia to 2 million shares. Live Nation Entertainment is said to be close to settling a federal antitrust lawsuit accusing the company of illegally monopolizing the live music industry. Hims & Hers Health shares are surging in premarket trading after Novo Nordisk was said to have ended its public feud with the company with an agreement to sell its drugs on the Hims platform. Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent and EchoStar will join the S&P 500 in the latest quarterly rebalance, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday. The companies will replace Match, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston and Paycom Software.
The spike in oil and losses in bonds and equities were initially steeper, but news that Group of Seven finance ministers would discuss a possible joint release of oil from reserves – just hours after we said this should happen – trimmed the moves
Still, the selling is adding fresh stress to markets as the US and Iran dug in for what could become a prolonged conflict. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled Tehran won’t back down, while President Donald Trump said higher oil prices were a “very small price to pay” for safety.
“The market is anticipating the worst-case scenario,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “The selloff is all about oil, it’s about the inflation that is deduced from it, it’s about the risk of stagflation.”
Arab states across the Persian Gulf and Israel continued to face incoming missiles and drones from Iran, which said it had the capacity to sustain the war for months. Israel struck fuel depots in Tehran and threatened the Islamic Republic’s power grid. Trump is also weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, according to three diplomatic officials briefed on the matter.
The stock market’s reaction has so far been restrained, with hopes lingering that strikes will remain contained in scope and time, said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin.
“We have not yet seen markets capitulate,” von Rotberg said. “As oil infrastructure has been hit over the weekend, a prolonged rise in oil prices becomes more likely and a quick reversal of recent moves becomes increasingly difficult.”
For stocks, Goldman Prime Brokerage data indicated that fast-money investors are ramping up bets against the broad US market while increasing holdings in individual names as they look to pick up bargains. Goldman’s Ben Snider sees a “meaningful” threat to S&P 500 earnings from sustained higher oil prices, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is staying positive on US stocks over a 6-12 month period. Meanwhile, strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a US market meltdown this year to 35% from 20%, and slashed the odds of a meltup — a rally driven more by investor enthusiasm than underlying fundamentals — to just 5% from 20%. Elsewhere in strategy, Vanda Research said that Friday’s record net buying by retail investors in the United States Oil Fund ETF suggests bullish oil bets may be the next “meme theme.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 1.9% and has erased its year-to-date gain as a gauge of European blue-chip stocks approached a 10% drop from its February peak. The region’s bonds faced a steeper selloff than US peers, with traders fully pricing in two European Central Bank interest-rate hikes and raising bets on a Bank of England move. The yield on two-year gilts jumped 25 basis points. Mining and real estate shares led declines, while energy and insurance stocks were the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- European fossil-fuel extraction companies rise as news of production cuts in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel and lifted natural gas futures as much as 30% in Europe
- Yara climbs as much as 2.1%, to the highest since June 2022, as Danske Bank upgrades to buy and sets a new Street-high price target, saying an already tight urea market may become even tighter
- Nexi rallies as much as 4.8%, following last week’s 20% drop, as Morgan Stanley upgrades the payments company to equal-weight, saying risk/reward on the stock is now more balanced
- Temenos shares climb as much as 2.7%, bucking the wider slump in European equities, as Bank of America upgrades its rating on the Swiss software provider to buy from neutral, seeing limited risks of disruption from generative AI
- European mining shares, airlines and banks tumble Monday as the war in Iran enters its 10th day
- Roche drops as much as 7.5% after a late-stage study of the Swiss pharmaceutical company’s experimental breast-cancer drug — called giredestrant — in combination with another treatment failed to meet the trial’s main goal
- Ipsen shares fall as much as 4.5% after the pharmaceutical company said it is voluntarily withdrawing its Tazverik cancer drug from all markets
- Cosmo Pharmaceuticals shares fall as much as 15% after the company forecast revenue for 2026 that missed the consensus estimate and which Oddo BHF said was disappointing
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks tumbled as the escalating Iran war drove oil near $120 a barrel and fueled fears of a fresh inflationary shock. All Asian markets fell Monday, with South Korea and Vietnam posting the sharpest declines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 5.6%, entering correction territory before paring losses on a report that the Group of Seven finance ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves. Chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix led the losses in the gauge. Chinese EV makers and AI firms, including BYD and Meituan, bucked the broader decline as government pledges of support lifted outlook for the sectors. Technology stocks were among the worst hit in the region, also weighed down by Oracle and OpenAI scrapping plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas. The MSCI’s gauge of tech stocks was down as much as 8.5%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3% with small gains seen in the kiwi and Canadian dollar. The euro and pound fall 0.6% each.
In rates, treasury futures remain under pressure after gapping lower at the Asia open as oil extended its surge, leaving front-end yields 4bp-5bp higher in early US session. US session has few scheduled events, and Treasury auctions resume Tuesday. Fed policymakers are in an external communications blackout ahead of March 18 policy decision. US long-end yields are only about 3bp cheaper, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by less than 1bp. 10-year is higher by about 3.5bp near 4.18%, outperforming most counterparts globally. Gilts lead the selloff in European government bonds, with two-year yields jumping 25 bps to 4.13% as traders now see potential tightening by the Bank of England this year. 10-year gilts are s about 13bp higher on the day, front-end tenors around 25bp higher; inflation fears have driven up swaps market pricing of interest-rate hikes this year by both BOE and ECB. German two-year borrowing costs climb 8 bps. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with 3-year notes, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday for a combined $119 billion.
In commodities, WTI crude futures remain above $100/barrel after Saudi Arabia has started reducing oil production, while G-7 ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves. US benchmark WTI crude futures have pared an increase of as much as 31% to about 13% but remain highest since 2022 as the war in the Middle East restricts supply via the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures jump ~18%, prompting a fresh wave of hawkish policy bets that have weighed on the region’s assets.
US economic data slate includes February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am. Reports ahead this week include CPI, personal income and spending (includes PCE price indexes), 4Q GDP revision, JOLTS job openings and industrial production
1b) European opening report
1c) Asian opening report
Oil surges as key producers cut output; G7 to discuss release of emergency reserves – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 02:43 AM
- APAC stocks sold off heavily with global markets rattled after the Iran war entered a second week with no signs of abating; US equity futures extended on their post-NFP declines.
- Oil prices surged some 30% at one point to just shy of USD 120/bbl as the continued Iran conflict forces producers to begin cutting output.
- Crude futures pulled back following FT reports that the G7 is to discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves in an emergency meeting on Monday.
- European equity futures indicate a much lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.1% on Friday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (Jan), US NY Fed SCE, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mar), & Japanese GDP Final (Q4). Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Cipollone.
- US clocks moved forward an hour over the weekend to Daylight Saving Time, with the London-NY time difference at 4 hours.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said that Iran would be hit very hard on Saturday and the US would consider targeting areas and groups in Iran that were not previously considered as targets.
- US President Trump said there would have to be a very good reason for the US to deploy ground troops in Iran, while Trump also said that he has ruled out having Kurdish forces go into Iran. It was separately reported that Trump told Britain that he does not need its help to win the Iran war, while Trump blamed Iran for launching a deadly strike on an all-girls school in Hormozgan province in Iran that killed about 180 people during the first day of the US-Israeli strikes. However, sources cited by CBS News said the US may be responsible for the bombing of the girls’ school in Iran.
- US President Trump is said to be considering the option of deploying special forces on the ground in Iran to seize its near-bomb-grade uranium, according to Bloomberg, citing three diplomatic sources briefed on the matter.
- US President Trump said on Friday that his demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender could be when Iran announces it or when Iran “can’t fight any longer”, according to an interview cited by Axios. Trump also commented on Friday that he had a very good meeting with the largest US defence manufacturing companies and that they agreed to quadruple production of “Exquisite Class” weaponry.
- US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford was reported on Friday to have left the eastern Mediterranean, while it crossed the Suez Canal and is currently active in the Red Sea, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said on Saturday that he instructed the military not to attack any country that is not striking Iran and apologised to Iran’s neighbours for conducting strikes against them, although reports noted that there were no signs that Iranian forces had stopped striking their Arab Gulf neighbours.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said he is in constant contact with his Saudi counterpart and that Saudi officials said they were fully committed to not letting their territory, water and airspace be used against Iran.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani said the US must pay for its actions and that Iran would not leave US President Trump alone for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, while he also stated that Tehran has no problem with regional countries but warned Tehran would continue attacking neighbouring countries if they allow their territories to be used for attacks against Iran.
- Iran picked former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they are ready to follow and obey new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
- Israel’s military warned it would pursue every person who sought to appoint a successor to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei.
- Iranian missile attack caused a power outage in Tel Aviv, while Iran also conducted launches towards northern Israel and the Lachish area.
- Iranian strike hit a Bahraini desalination plant, according to Semafor.
- Iraqi media reported air defences shot down a drone targeting Victoria base at Baghdad airport.
- Qatari Ministry of Defence announced armed forces responded to a missile attack, while at least eight explosions and several ballistic missile interceptions were reported over Doha, Qatar.
- IRGC spokesman challenged US President Trump on Friday to have US vessels escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia said they intercepted Iranian stacks overnight into Sunday, while UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned the country’s “enemies” that they are no easy prey and not to mistake their prosperity for weakness. It was separately reported that Dubai’s Emirates Airlines planned to resume operations after flights were temporarily suspended on Saturday following disruptions caused by interceptions, while the UAE also announced on Sunday that its air defence systems responded to a missile threat.
- Saudi Arabia and Pakistan discussed joint steps they could take to stop Iranian drone and missile strikes on the kingdom, amid their mutual defence pact, while it was also reported that Saudi Arabia intercepted four drones that were heading to the Shaybah oil field, which has a 1mln bpd output capacity. Furthermore, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said the kingdom affirms that it reserves its full right to take measures to protect its security, and it stated that Iran’s sinful aggressions cannot be accepted or justified.
- US embassy in Oslo sustained minor damage from an explosion early on Sunday, while Norwegian police said signs pointed to an attack and that there were no casualties.
- US State Department ordered diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia, citing growing risks in the region.
- One of the UK’s two aircraft carriers has been placed on advanced readiness to deploy in five days from Saturday, which has led to speculation that it could be deployed to the Mediterranean to help defend British interests.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were heavily sold on Friday to conclude what had been a grim week for risk assets amid the start of the Middle East conflict. In addition to that, markets got a further hit on a quite dismal US jobs report, which saw the headline plunge 92k (exp. 59k, prev. 126k), unemployment rate tick higher to 4.4% (prev. & exp. 4.3%), and wages unwelcomingly accelerate/sticky.
- Further adding to the woes, and hitting the tech/semi sector, including NVIDIA, were Bloomberg reports that Oracle and OpenAI ended plans to expand a data centre site. However, US indices pared some of this weakness as CNBC, citing a source, refuted this, saying existing plans remain on track.
- SPX -1.33% at 6,740, NDX -1.51% at 24,643, DJI -0.95% at 47,502, RUT -2.33% at 2,525.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Customs and Border Protection told a court it cannot immediately refund about USD 166bln in tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, as its computer systems, administrative procedures and staffing do not enable it to comply at once.
- US President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s summit is said to unlikely yield a breakthrough, with five people briefed on preparations saying the summit is unlikely to create room for even a limited reset of business and investment ties.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China and the US could make 2026 a landmark year for sound, steady and sustainable development of China-US relations, while he added that China’s attitude is always positive and open. Furthermore, he stated regarding US President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing, that the agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table and that both sides now need to make preparations accordingly.
- Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said Japan requested that the US exempt it from the planned tariff increase from 10% to 15%, following a meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. It was also reported that Japan is said to be considering JPY 15tln for a second US investment project and that the government approached Japan Display (6740 JT) about operating a USD 13bln cutting-edge factory in the US as part of the USD 550bln investment package.
- South Korea’s Industry Minister Kim said the US is unlikely to impose the previously threatened 25% tariffs on South Korea if the Korean parliament move swiftly to ratify the investment legislation in the week ahead.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump threatened not to sign any bills into law until his package of voting reforms is passed.
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she still supports 75bps in cuts this year, and that the labour market could use more support from Fed policy.
- Fed’s Miran (voter) said on Friday that he is hesitant to read too much into one month’s job report and policy is pretty mis-calibrated from here, as well as noted that monetary policy is too tight. Miran said neutral is like 2.50%-2.75%, and he hopes the Fed votes to cut at the next FOMC meeting, and will be a dissenter if not, while he added the Fed should cut rates to neutral, then re-estimate.
- Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said on Friday that she sees no imminent need to change the stance of monetary policy in an economy where inflation is still “too high”. Hammack also stated that the job numbers were a disappointment and that the economy is overall brightening, while the labour market is stabilising. Furthermore, she said they are right around neutral and not overly restrictive, based on banks and firms she is talking to, as well as commented that they should stay at least around neutral to bring inflation down and could be on hold for quite some time.
- Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) said on Friday that she expects the Fed rate target to hold steady ‘for some time’ and that now is the time for the Fed to be patient and deliberative with rate policy, while she added that to cut rates again, they need to see clear evidence inflation is ebbing. Collins sees no urgent need to change monetary policy stance and stated the job market appears relatively stable, as well as noted that Fed policy is currently well positioned, and the latest on tariffs could bring more inflation pressure.
- Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) said on Friday that businesses are pausing on hiring and the labour market is under a structural, not cyclical strain.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks sold off heavily with global markets rattled after the Iran war entered a second week with no signs of abating and as oil prices surged around 30% intraday on continued disruption, with more producers forced to cut output.
- ASX 200 slumped at the open with heavy losses across all sectors aside from energy due to the oil price surge.
- Nikkei 225 suffered intraday losses of more than 4,000 points as manufacturers and exporters suffered from the rising energy costs and shipping disruption.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood with sources tempering expectations for a breakthrough in the upcoming Trump/Xi summit, but with the downside in the mainland somewhat cushioned after firmer-than-expected Chinese inflation data.
- US equity futures extended on their post-NFP declines as the Iran conflict and surge in oil spooked markets.
- European equity futures indicate a much lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.1% on Friday.
FX
- DXY surged on a haven bid with the market spooked after the Iran conflict entered its second week and oil prices surged to print just shy of USD 120/bbl. The conflict continued to show no signs of abating after President Trump announced that Iran would be hit very hard on Saturday, and he was also said to be considering the option of deploying special forces on the ground in Iran. Furthermore, Iran continued to conduct strikes against Gulf neighbours despite the Iranian President instructing forces not to, while Iran also named Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader, who is seen as a hardliner and who the IRGC vowed to obey.
- EUR/USD retreated beneath the 1.1600 level amid the firmer buck and as energy-related disruptions roiled global markets.
- GBP/USD briefly dipped to sub-1.3300 territory, with the pair also not helped by Trump’s recent criticism against the UK for the lack of support in Iran strikes, while Trump said the US does not need UK aircraft carriers but will remember.
- USD/JPY climbed higher after gapping above the 158.00 level as the dollar reigned supreme, while firmer-than-expected wage data and higher in Japan did little to stem the losses in the Japanese currency.
- Antipodeans gave up ground to the firmer dollar but with downside cushioned following firmer-than-expected Chinese inflation data, and as the oil-related inflationary pressure adds to the hawkish central bank outlooks.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures wiped out the gains seen following last Friday’s disappointing jobs data, as the surge in oil prices further stoked inflationary fears.
- Bund futures fell firmly below the USD 127.00 level as oil prices rocketed, while German Industrial Production data is due later.
- 10yr JGB futures conformed to the downside in global peers with yields climbing on the inflationary pressures, while data also showed that Japanese wages topped forecasts.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures surged from the open with both WTI and Brent crude futures climbing above USD 100/bbl before later extending to just shy of the USD 120.00/bbl level as the Iran conflict dragged on into a second week and with disruptions forcing producers such as the UAE and Kuwait to begin cutting production, while Iraq’s production has reportedly fallen about 60% since the beginning of the conflict. However, prices later retreated from highs, with a pullback also facilitated by a report that the G7 is to discuss a joint release of emergency reserves.
- Iraq’s oil output has fallen by about 60% and is currently 1.7mln-1.8mln bpd vs around 4.3mln prior to the start of the Iran conflict.
- UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil production amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg.
- G7 is to discuss a joint release of emergency oil reserves in a meeting today, with three G7 countries so far, including the US, are said to have expressed support for the idea, according to FT.
- US President Trump posted “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
- US Energy Secretary Wright said global energy supplies are sufficient and that the surge in oil prices reflects a fear premium that won’t last.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent commented on Friday that the world is well supplied with oil and that they may remove sanctions on other Russian oil, while he added that the US is on track to get safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- US was reported on Friday to create a USD 20bln reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping, as a facility to restart maritime cargo, according to FT.
- Russian First Deputy PM said the Russian section of the Druzhba oil pipeline is technically ready for oil supplies.
- Spot gold declined alongside a firmer buck and with the metals complex pressured alongside the broad risk-off mood.
- PBoC continued its gold buying for a 16th consecutive month in February, in which its holdings rose by 30k troy ounces last month to a total 74.22mln troy ounces.
- Copper futures slumped at the reopen as the continued Iran conflict and surge in oil set the tone across, although prices are off worst levels with some mild tailwinds seen following the firmer-than-expected Chinese inflation data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually climbed overnight to return to above the USD 67,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China NPC Standing Committee said it is to revise the law on enterprise state-owned assets, and will strengthen research on legislation in AI and other sectors, while it will also revise the PBoC law and banking regulation law.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI YY (Feb) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Feb) -0.9% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. -1.4%)
- Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Jan) 3.0% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Three Palestinians were killed by extremist Israeli settlers in deadly raids in the West Bank.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia conducted a large drone and missile attack across Ukraine, while its ballistic missile strike levelled much of a residential building in Kharkiv and killed at least seven people.
OTHER
- US carried out a boat strike in the eastern Pacific which killed six, according to NYT.
- Taiwan’s Premier Cho made the first visit by a Taiwanese Premier to Japan since 1972, in defiance of China, to watch a baseball game between Taiwan and the Czech Republic, while he paid for the visit himself.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK government is said to have offered China’s Jingye Group “tens of millions” of pounds to resolve the British Steel ownership impasse.
- German Chancellor Merz’s CDU party faces a setback in a key regional election in Baden-Württemberg, as projections show that the incumbent Greens have a narrow lead in the state.
- ECB’s Schnabel said on Friday that the ECB is still in a good place, but the Iran war creates upside inflation risks, and the ECB must monitor the persistence of the energy price shock. Schnabel said a small and temporary inflation overshoot is of little relevance if expectations remain anchored, while she added that post-pandemic lessons suggest the ECB must tread carefully. Furthermore, she said with inflation projected to be at the target over the medium term and inflation expectations anchored, monetary policy remains in a good place.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/TAIWAN
Price Controls Arrive: South Korea, Taiwan Impose Fuel Price Cap
Sunday, Mar 08, 2026 – 11:30 PM
It’s a bloodbath across Asian markets this morning with Asia being the world’s largest oil-importing region. Based on a Goldman analysis of the impact of higher oil on real GDP growth (chart below), China is the most insulated from supply-driven oil price increases compared to other emerging Asian economies, with $15/bbl higher crude oil prices leading to 0-0.1pp lower GDP growth and 0.1-0.2pp higher headline CPI inflation. This resilience is partly due to the country’s economic structure and the potential for government intervention to dampen the pass-through of global price increases to consumers. Increased oil stockpiling last year – some estimates put China’s strategic oil resere at 1.5 billion barrels – and very low inflation over the past few years also make China less vulnerable to rising energy prices.
Conversely, Singapore, followed by Taiwan and Korea, will bear the brunt of it with a -1.6% hit to GDP growth and this is only assuming $85 oil. Brent has now crossed the $100 handle with risks to the upside.
Seen in this light, it is probably not a big surprise that South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Monday that authorities would cap domestic fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years to contain a spike in prices after the conflict in the Middle East sent global crude prices sharply higher.
Speaking at an emergency cabinet meeting, Lee said in the government would “swifly implement and boldly impement” a maximum price system on petroleum products.
The current crisis “is a significant burden on our economy, which is highly dependent on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East,” Lee said in opening remarks.
He added that South Korea will also look for sources of energy beyond supplies shipped via the Strait of Hormuz.
Having emerged as the most cartoonish “market” in the world – whether it is stocks, crypto, or oil, and where even the smallest downtick has to be stabilized by the government or else watch the momentum-chasing lemmings run over the cliff – Lee said a 100 trillion won market stabilization programme should be expanded if needed, and called on the government and the central bank to prepare additional measures to respond to the volatility of the financial and foreign exchange markets.
South Korean shares slumped 8% on Monday to activate circuit breakers for a second time this month on the escalating Middle East conflict, while the won dropped more than 1% to trade near a key psychological barrier of 1,500 per dollar. The Kospi plunged 12% last Wednesday before surging by 12% on Thursday.
Sure enough, shortly after Korea’s announcement, the Commercial Times reported that Taiwan would set a weekly cap on oil-price increases as it seeks to cushion the economy from the impact of the Middle East war.
The Taipei-based newspaper reported the limit on Monday, citing Premier Cho Jung-tai and unidentified officials. Cho had previously told reporters on Sunday that the government had activated a price-stabilization mechanism to absorb oil price increases. That came after the Ministry of Economic Affairs said the day before that domestic fuel prices would only rise about 5% this week.
On liquefied natural gas, Taiwan’s Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin told reporters the island only needs to find two more cargoes for March and April. “We won’t have a power shortage, and no additional coal-fired generation will be needed in March and April,” he said on Monday. “We can proceed as planned and safely navigate the period.”
Taiwan’s unleaded gasoline prices rose by as much as 5.5% after the government activated stabilization measures, the ministry said in the statement. Under the floating oil-price adjustment mechanism, prices should have climbed by as much as 19.7% this week, it said, with the government absorbing costs to reduce the impact on households and businesses and maintain domestic price stability.
How long can Taiwan keep prices artificially low, thus ensuring that the snapback will be especially brutal? According to officials cited in the Commercial Times repor, there are currently no concerns that Taiwan will run out of crude oil or natural gas, which simply means that nobody has done the math. The government plans to increase oil and gas purchases from outside the Middle East, and coordinate with Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea to swap LNG cargoes to ensure stable supply, the newspaper reported.
While one can debate the prudence of such price controls until one is blue in the face, the reality is that unless oil stabilizes and reverses, expect similar price caps all across the world coupled with strategic petroleum reserve releases, because a 25% one-day surge in the price of oil – if sustained – not only guarantees a global recession, but it also ensures social unrest, as well as a comprehensive sacking of every incumbent politician.
2b JAPAN
3. CHINA
Xi Hints At More Top Purges, Issues Warning To ‘Corrupt Elements’ In Chinese Army
Sunday, Mar 08, 2026 – 06:00 PM
One of the big themes to come out of China over the past several months (and even years) has been Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (apparently ongoing) sweeping purge of PLA military command ranks on the basis of “corruption” – or rather what is most probably perceived disloyalty.
Already there’s been several top dismissals including the firings of multiple members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and dozens of generals – some even placed under house arrest, as well as a broad purge of the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi this weekend hinted there could be more to come, freshly warning Saturday during a speech to delegates from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the People’s Armed Police that disloyalty to the party – or else selfish dealings and corruption – will not be tolerated.
“There must be no place in the military for those who are disloyal to the party, nor any place for corrupt elements,” Xi said.
He then called for strict oversight in “key areas such as fund flows, the exercise of power, and quality control” during the country’s next five-year plan which is set to be approved later this month.
Here’s more of what he said via Chinese state sources:
It is essential to fully strengthen the Party’s leadership and Party building in the military, and make Party organizations at all levels even stronger, Xi said, stressing the need to translate the Party’s leadership strength into development momentum.
It is important to consolidate the ideological foundation that ensures officers and soldiers follow the Party and its guidance, and ensure that modern weaponry and equipment are placed in the hands of politically committed personnel, Xi said.
A former CIA analyst who follows Chinese elite politics, Christopher K. Johnson, recently told the NY Times of the ongoing purge trend:
“This move is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese military and represents the total annihilation of the high command.”
The PLA has seen significant internal turmoil, especially since the Communist Party’s 20th Congress in late 2022. Several top military figures – including Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, and CMC Political Work Department head Miao Hua – have disappeared or been removed, and many more followed.
END
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
HUNGARY/UKRAINE
They are surprised?
Hungary Detains Ukrainians Transporting 10s Of Millions In Cash & Gold
Brooke/Remix:
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via REMIX,
Hungarian authorities have detained seven Ukrainian citizens and seized tens of millions of dollars, euros, and gold that were being transported through the country in armored vehicles, triggering the latest diplomatic dispute between Budapest and Kyiv.
Hungary’s National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) confirmed on Friday that criminal proceedings had been launched on suspicion of money laundering following an operation carried out on March 5. Authorities intercepted two armored cash-transport vehicles traveling through Hungary from Austria toward Ukraine.
According to the Hungarian authorities, the vehicles were carrying approximately $40 million, €35 million in cash, and 9 kilograms of gold.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said the case raised serious questions about the movement of large quantities of physical cash through the country.
“Since January, a total of $900 million and €420 million in cash has been transported through Hungary, and 146 kilograms of gold bars have also been transported through the country,” he said, as cited by Magyar Hírlap.
“We have a number of serious questions about this. First of all, this is a huge amount of cash, and we wonder why Ukrainians need to transport such a large amount of cash. If it is true that this is a transaction between banks, then the question rightly arises as to why the banks do not settle this between themselves by bank transfer, why it is necessary to transport such a large amount of cash, and why it has to be transported through Hungary,” Szijjártó added.
“These questions arise mainly because these cash shipments are accompanied by people who have clear ties to Ukrainian secret services.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán, also commented on the case, raising concerns about the purpose of the funds.
“Hundreds of millions in cash and gold moving through Hungary toward Ukraine — escorted by people linked to Ukrainian intelligence. Armored vehicles, suitcases full of money, staggering sums,” he wrote on X.
“Whose money is this? What was it meant to finance? Who benefits from it? And why must such enormous amounts of cash travel across our country instead of being transferred through normal banking channels?”
He added that authorities would conduct a full investigation and argued that the Hungarian public had a right to know where such funds were coming from and what they were intended for.
Ukraine, however, has strongly rejected the allegations and accused Hungary of illegally detaining its citizens and confiscating bank property.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the seven individuals were employees of the state-owned Oschadbank who were conducting a routine cash transfer between financial institutions.
“Today in Budapest, Hungarian authorities took seven Ukrainian citizens hostage. The reasons are still unknown, as well as their current well-being, or the possibility of contacting them,” Sybiha said in a social media post cited by Ukrinform.
According to Kyiv, the vehicles were transporting currency and precious metals between Raiffeisen Bank Austria and Oschadbank Ukraine as part of standard banking operations.
Sybiha accused Hungary of acting unlawfully. “If this is the ‘force’ announced earlier today by Mr. Orban, then this is the force of a criminal gang. This is state terrorism and racketeering,” he said.
Oschadbank also confirmed that two of its armored vehicles and a seven-member transport team had been detained in Hungary while carrying out what it described as a routine transfer of funds and banking metals.
“The value of the assets in the seized vehicles amounted to $40 million, EUR 35 million, and 9 kg of gold,” the bank said in a statement, adding that the transport had been documented in accordance with international banking and customs procedures.
According to GPS tracking data cited by the bank, the vehicles were last located in central Budapest near one of Hungary’s law enforcement agencies. Ukrainian officials said the whereabouts of the bank employees were not immediately known.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has also issued a warning advising Ukrainian citizens to avoid traveling through Hungary following what it described as the “kidnapping” of the bank employees and seizure of state bank assets.
The incident marks the latest escalation in already strained relations between the two countries.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sparked outrage among European nationalist politicians by suggesting that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s address could be given to Ukrainian armed forces so they could “speak to him in their own language.”
Hungarian officials interpreted the remark as a threat directed at Orbán amid ongoing disputes over Hungary’s opposition to a proposed €90 billion EU loan package for Ukraine.
end
UK
YOU HAVE GOT TO BEKIDDING????
As War Rages In Iran, UK MoD Surveys Troops On Wearing Makeup And Nail Polish
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 08:05 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
While flames engulf Iranian oil depots following U.S. and Israeli strikes, and Iran retaliates with missiles targeting the UAE and Israel, the UK Ministry of Defence has sparked backlash by circulating a survey to troops about relaxing appearance standards. The questionnaire asks if male soldiers should be allowed to wear makeup, nail polish, and longer hair, ridiculously framing it as a push toward “gender-free” policies.
The timing of this clownish behaviour couldn’t be worse. The survey, originating from Army HQ in Andover, proposes uniform rules on hair, jewelry, and even facial aesthetics like fillers and microblading for all genders.
The review builds on recent shifts in UK military policies. In 2024, the Army reversed a long-standing ban on beards. Back in 2019, then-Defence Secretary Ben Wallace floated allowing men to use camouflage-colored makeup. And in 2017, instructions emphasized avoiding gender-specific language like “best man for the job.”
Shadow Defence Minister Mark Francois slammed the initiative, stating, “Upgrading to mascara from camouflage cream is hardly likely to deter Putin.”
An Army spokesman pushed back, clarifying, “As the Chief of the General Staff has said, the Army is focused on enhancing our lethality and fighting readiness. There are no plans to change policy – and this was not an official Army survey.”
This comes against a backdrop of escalating conflict in Iran. U.S. and Israeli forces have conducted devastating strikes on regime oil depots, with reports of “fire rain” over Tehran after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a daytime assault. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of UK gas shortages with only days’ reserves left. Iranian drones and missiles have struck Dubai skyscrapers and airports, killing civilians.
In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly dressed down UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for what he calls a tardy response to the crisis.
In a social media post, Trump dismissed Britain’s offer to send aircraft carriers, writing, “The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”
The jab highlights Starmer’s initial hesitation. The UK excluded itself from early strikes on Iran and denied U.S. use of its bases. Trump compared Starmer unfavorably to Winston Churchill, noting, “Starmer was no Winston Churchill.”
Starmer has since shifted, deploying the HMS Prince of Wales and additional Typhoon jets to the region. He also did what he does best, a complete u-turn on permission for U.S. forces to use UK bases for “specific and limited defensive” strikes against Iranian missiles. This includes operations from RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to intercept threats to regional allies.
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has joined the chorus, urging Starmer to back the U.S. unequivocally. At a private event, where he expected the remarks to remain, Blair said, “We should have backed America from the very beginning,” adding “You better show up!” emphasizing the U.S. as an “indispensable ally.”
Blair stressed, “We have got to be very clear about this as a country. We’re depending on the American alliance for our country. They are not just an ally, they are an indispensable ally, right?” And, “It’s not a question of whether it’s this president or that president. If they are your ally and they are an indispensable ally cornerstone for your security… you had better show up.” He advised Starmer to be “strong and out there and clear” on foreign policy.
This critique underscores fractures in UK leadership as the conflict unfolds. Starmer maintains the UK won’t pursue “regime change from the skies,” focusing on a negotiated end where Iran abandons nuclear ambitions and regional destabilization.
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5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIR
IRAN vs ISRAEL VS USA VS JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY
TBN ISRAEL LAST 24 HRS
END
END
ISRAEL VS IRAN UPDATES
FRIDAY NIGHT
Trump Ready To Continue Operations Until Iranians “Can’t Fight Any Longer”
Friday, Mar 06, 2026 – 03:10 PM
Summary:
- Trump sticking to surrender demand, freshly telling Axios, but tweaking the messaging a bit compared to earlier: “Unconditional surrender could be that [the Iranians] announce it. But it could also be when they can’t fight any longer because they don’t have anyone or anything to fight with.”
- Trump’s expected timeline on Operation Epic Fury: WH Press Secretary Leavitt: “Four to six weeks.” And Leavitt further tweaks Trump’s message…ops to continue till “Iran can no longer pose a threat to the U.S. and our troops in the Middle East.”
- Nation-building? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”
- War enters day seven as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the conflict with the US and Israel, while stressing negotiations must confront those who “ignited this conflict.”
- Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander: “The Iranian terrorist regime has attacked 12 different countries and continues to deliberately target civilians throughout the Middle East. Last night, Iranian forces fired seven attack drones at civilians, residential neighborhoods in Bahrain. This… will not go unanswered…
- Wapo highlights Ft. Bragg (Ft Liberty) canceled exercises, troops on standby: The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a major training exercise for the 82nd Airborne Division’s headquarters, fueling speculation that the rapid-response unit could deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. conflict with Iran expands.
- Iran says EU ‘legitimate’ target if it joins war: France24
- Heavy fighting continues, with Tehran experiencing its most intense bombardment yet, including strikes near key government districts; Israel says the attacks mark a “new phase” of the war.
- Trump rejects negotiations amid Tehran reports that outside countries offered mediation, declaring there will be “no deal except unconditional surrender,” and suggesting Iran could later select a new leader with US approval.
- Global fallout intensifies: Brent oil futures surges to around $90, Gulf energy flows face disruption, Russia says demand for its energy is rising, and reports indicate Moscow may be providing Iran intelligence on US military assets in the region.
- Qatar News Agency, Citing Minister of State for Energy Affairs, says The ongoing war will force Gulf states to halt energy production and exports within days.
- Israeli official admits Hezbollah joined conflict with unexpected intensity. Israeli military: Five IDF soldiers seriously wounded by Hezbollah rocket as Air Force pounds Beirut
- President Trump said sending ground troops into Iran would be a “waste of time.“
- China assistance in question via CNN: The US also has intelligence suggesting that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components, three people familiar with the matter said, though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now – though relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian ballistic missiles on Israel show signs of slowing, but severe damage in Tel Aviv and elsewhere has been documented, and Israeli civilian/military casualties. Last days have seen no Pentagon updates on US casualties which stands at 6 troops killed and many ‘seriously’ wounded.
- SATURDAY
SATURDAY
this is why Israel had to attack Iran when it did!!!
Israeli Sources Say Site Hit in Tehran Was Developing Nuclear Trigger Component
Senior Israeli officials say Iran worked covertly after attacks on its nuclear sites during the Twelve Day War, to accelerate its ‘Weapon Group’ project.
A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion in Tehran on Feb. 28, 2026. ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images
&
Israel has said that after the destruction of three Iranian nuclear sites by the United States and Israel during the Twelve Day War last June, Iran continued clandestine efforts to restore its nuclear weapons program.
On March 3, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that it “struck and destroyed the secret nuclear headquarters in Minzadehei, located partly underground in the city of Tehran. A team of nuclear scientists was operating covertly at this headquarters.”
The military added that during the June 2025 strikes, “the Iranian regime transferred some of its capabilities to secret bunkers and attempted to restore its efforts and conceal them.”
Senior Israeli security officials told Epoch Magazine in Israel that at the Minzadehei site that was struck, a team of nuclear scientists—reassembled by Iran from among those who had survived the bombing last year—was working to accelerate the country’s “Weapon Group” project. The purpose of the project is to develop the bomb’s fuzing system–the component responsible for triggering the detonation mechanism—and adapt the weapon for delivery by ballistic missile.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to publicly discuss the details.
The Weapon Group is the body responsible for developing the nuclear detonation mechanism within Iran’s nuclear program. In the process of developing a nuclear bomb intended for mounting on a ballistic missile, the bomb’s components are developed and built separately until the weapon’s final assembly. The team of scientists operating at the site was working on the fuze.
related stories:
US Creates $20 Billion Reinsurance Fund for Gulf Shipping Amid Iran War
US Ramps Up Drone Warfare, Fires Improved Iranian Weapons Back at Iran
The same sources said the Iranian leadership recovered from the blow it suffered to its nuclear sites from the United States and Israel in June 2025, and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered an accelerated push to produce a nuclear bomb.
In 2024, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Khamenei, said in an interview with Al Jazeera: “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.”
In 2025, Ali Shamkhani, a former defense minister and then an adviser to Khamenei, said if he returned to the defense portfolio, he would “move toward building an atomic bomb.” Shamkhani was among the Iranian leaders killed in the U.S.–Israeli strikes on the first day of the latest military operation on Iran.
Israeli security officials say those remarks reflected growing recognition at the top of the Iranian leadership that the absence of nuclear capability was a strategic disadvantage—one that weakens the Iranian regime’s ability to deter its enemies and defend against military strikes or attempts at regime change. For that reason, achieving the ability to produce a nuclear bomb quickly became a top priority for Tehran.
A satellite view shows an overview of Fordow underground complex, after the U.S. struck the nuclear facility, near Qom, Iran, on June 22, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters
Iran’s Nuclear Program
For decades, Iran pursued a policy of nuclear ambiguity, combining the development of civilian nuclear technology with an official commitment to refrain from producing nuclear weapons, in accordance with the 1968 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty.
In 2002, in response to U.S. congressional reports that the Iranian regime had built nuclear-related facilities it had not disclosed, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demanded access to certain sites, key personnel, and relevant documents to investigate.
“About three years later, the Americans began to understand that Iran had an active nuclear weapons development program, but they became convinced that the program had been halted,” David Albright, a leading expert on nuclear proliferation and founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told Epoch Magazine Israel.
In November 2011, the IAEA published findings that outlined “possible military dimensions” to Iran’s nuclear program. The agency said that based on information it received from member states, this was pursued under Iran’s initiative dubbed the AMAD Plan headed by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. The program began to take shape in the late 1990s or early 2000s, the report said.
The report adds that based on intelligence provided by member states, the plan included work on explosives, uranium enrichment, and the development of a warhead that could be fitted onto a Shahab-3 missile.
The IAEA report said that based on intelligence it has reviewed and its own investigation, Iran had worked on the development of a nuclear explosive device, and tested advanced systems for initiating explosives from multiple points simultaneously in order to create a uniform blast, something required for an effective nuclear explosion.
It added that based on intelligence provided by member states, Iran conducted a test involving the detonation of a powerful hemispherical high-explosive charge. It noted that the materials and dimensions used in the test resembled what would be required to develop a nuclear warhead for the Shahab-3 missile.
“You can produce a nuclear explosive device with a mock core, which can be uranium, but not enriched uranium,” Ephraim Asculai, who worked at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission for more than 40 years, told Epoch Magazine.
“I’m not even sure the term ’mock core’ is good enough, because it is a full-fledged nuclear explosive device in every respect, except that the uranium inside is not enriched to weapons grade,” Asculai said.
“What is called a ‘cold test’ is carried out with this device—you measure all the parameters and examine them in order to confirm that it will work one day. Then, one day, you simply remove the non-enriched uranium core and insert an enriched uranium core, and the device will work.”
Iranian technicians are seen at the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facilities (UCF), 420 kms south of Tehran, on Aug. 8, 2005. Behrouz Mehri/AFP via Getty Images
Documents from the Iranian Nuclear Archive—a collection of documents, photos, and videos obtained during a Mossad operation inside Iran and made public in April 2018 by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—showed that under the AMAD Plan, extensive planning had been conducted for the construction of an underground test site where nuclear explosions would be carried out.
According to the documents, Iran called the project Midan. As part of the project, five potential sites were examined, and methods were developed for measuring the power of a nuclear explosion, including the use of seismic and other technologies. One of the documents deals with the depth of the shaft required for an explosion of a certain yield, the behavior of the ground during the explosion, methods for refilling the shaft after placement of the nuclear device, and the development of software to monitor the entire process.
The IAEA report stated that based on intelligence from member states, Iran ultimately halted the AMAD Plan and began cleaning equipment and work areas in order to conceal the activities that had taken place there. However, the report added that based on the same intelligence sources, some of those activities continued under different organizations.
According to Albright, the Iranians continued to advance the AMAD Plan, but in a different format. “They shifted from trying to build a nuclear weapon to trying to solve bottlenecks in the various parts of the program, so that when the time came, they could connect all the components quickly and efficiently and assemble the weapon.”
A former senior Mossad official who was involved in bringing the Iranian Nuclear Archive to Israel, said, “To illustrate, think about the structure of a newspaper.”
“You have reporters covering different beats, and you have an editor who integrates all the content that comes in and creates a complete product. Now imagine that you decide not to publish the newspaper for the next three years for various reasons. You don’t shut it down. Instead, you decide that each reporter will sit at home, at his university, or at the research institute where he works, and continue researching and developing his area of expertise,” the former official told Epoch Magazine in Israel. His name is withheld because he is not authorized to speak publicly.
“You pay the reporters so they keep their skills sharp and continue writing drafts until the day the newspaper resumes operations and calls them back to assemble a finished product. The same thing happened in Iran—the nuclear program was operational, people met together to develop, produce, and assemble weapons, but then they were dispersed.”
A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, on Jan. 26, 2014. Mohamad Ali Najib/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
The AMAD Plan was initially run under a body called SADAT, but moved under the management of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which began operations in 2011, according to the IAEA report.
“The work in the SADAT Centres drew on resources at Iranian universities which had laboratories available to them and students to do the research,” the IAEA report notes.
Fakhrizadeh, who headed the AMAD Plan and then SADAT, also led SPND until he was assassinated in late 2020.
“As a successor body, SPND inherited a substantial portion of the manpower that had been involved in the nuclear program in the early 2000s,” Albright said. “It has a network of subordinate groups, as well as front companies, through which it conducts research and procurement related to nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. The structure of the network makes it possible to incorporate many of the employees who worked in the AMAD Plan and who today work in private companies and universities in Iran.”
During the Twelve Day War in June 2025, the Israeli military said that SPND headquarters in Tehran had also been struck, along with attacks on nuclear sites and other critical infrastructure.
end
SUNDAY
FW: It Begins: Iranian Drone Strikes Bahrain Desalination Plant As Worst-Case Scenario Unfolds
It Begins: Iranian Drone Strikes Bahrain Desalination Plant As Worst-Case Scenario Unfolds
SUNDAY, MAR 08, 2026 – 07:58 AM
Update (Sunday):
From data centers in the Gulf area to water desalination plants, the worst-case scenario is now unfolding in the Middle East conflict, with no boundaries regarding civilian infrastructure.
We warned earlier last week, after correctly predicting that data centers would be targeted, that water desalination plants would be next (see the previous update).
Al Jazeera reports that after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi claimed the US targeted a water desalination plant in Iran, an IRGC kamikaze drone then targeted a desalination plant in Bahrain.
Al Jazeera also outlined the importance of water desalination plants to the Gulf region:
- GCC states hold about 60% of global desalination capacity and produce around 40% of the world’s desalinated water through more than 400 plants.
- Most GCC countries rely heavily on desalination: 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE.
- Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer, with capacity projected to reach 8.5 million cubic meters per day by 2025 after $80 billion in investments.
Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior wrote on X, “The Iranian aggression randomly bombs civilian targets and causes material damage to a water desalination plant following an attack by a drone.”
* * *
First we warned that data centers would become drone targets, and then IRGC strikes hit Amazon AWS and Microsoft-linked AI infrastructure across the Gulf. Next, we flagged water desalination plants as another target. Now, with reports that a desalination facility in Iran has been struck, it is increasingly clear that this conflict has no boundaries when it comes to civilian infrastructure.
On Saturday morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi took to X and claimed that U.S. military forces had “committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island.”
“Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran,” Araghchi said.
Shortly after Araghchi’s post, a Community Note attached to his tweet read, “There is currently no independent confirmation from international media or monitoring organizations that the U.S. attacked a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island.”
Whether confirmed or not, the worst-case scenario for the conflict is one in which freshwater desalination plants are targeted, either intentionally or by accident.
This risk was first raised earlier last week by Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas, who said, “A lot of attention about ‘soft targets’ like hotels and airports. And about oil/gas facilities. But please keep an eye on what may prove the most strategic asset for Persian Gulf countries: water desalination plants.”
Desalination plants are critical infrastructure for many Gulf states because almost all of the region’s freshwater comes from either desalinating seawater or pumping from deep aquifers. Dependence on these plants is especially high: 90% in Kuwait, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE comes from desalination.
IRGC targeting of the data centers is another way of Tehran telling Gulf states aligned with the U.S. that the regime can turn off their AI data centers. Let’s just hope the IRGC does not become enraged enough and begin signaling to Gulf states that it can turn off the region’s water. That would be a worst-case scenario and spark humanitarian emergencies for millions of people.
END
ROBERT H
Realities are coming
East-West crude oil pipeline
Abqaiq-Yanbu NGL pipeline, a 742 mile pipeline in Saudi Arabia that was to carry crude to the Suez is toast as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. This means no oil is moving. Good luck if wells are shut in.
Qatar is down to 10 days of fresh food like strawberries. They will not starve but modern conveniences will be gone. A 3rd US Carrier is on the way and the French sent in theirs.
Soon boots will follow. Likely in 10 days or so with the 82nd leading the charge.
Meanwhile stark reality beckons for EU worshipers of war. NO gas from Russia. And NO gas from anywhere else unless the occasional load of LNG from Australia. Why do you think will happen to Europe?
Meanwhile gas prices are rising at the pump. Remember the surcharges because everyone will be adding fuel surcharges to everything.
And let’s not forget bank liquidity being denied the Daily Cash from energy.
Dark clouds are looming which will affect everything.
END
UPDATES:
The Ayatollah’s Secret Underground Command Bunker Is No More
When you combine precise IDF intelligence with 50 Israeli Air Force planes. Also, Lebanon update
| LTC Nadav ShoshaniMar 7 |
Hi everyone, Nadav here.
I want to give you a direct update on two major developments:
- A major strike in the heart of Tehran
- Our continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As always, I’ll keep it straightforward.
But first, one quick ask: the war for truth online is still very real. If these updates help you understand what’s happening, share this post so more people can get clear information directly from the source.
IAF Raid In the Heart of Tehran
Over the last day, the Israeli Air Force has continued to operate in Iran. In total, we’ve conducted over 2,500+ sorties, neutralized over 60% of Iranian missile launchers and destroyed some 80% of their aerial defense.
That let’s us move to the next stage, as we strike more and more regime targets, including two senior regime commanders today. But I want to focus on one sortie.
The Underground Bunker
Earlier on March 6, approximately 50 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, guided by precise IDF intelligence, carried out a strike on the Supreme Leader’s underground command center. Intelligence has been painstakingly gathered over the course of years.
This compound stretched across multiple streets in the heart of Tehran and included a number entrances and meeting rooms for senior regime officials.
This bunker was intended to serve as a secure emergency command center for the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime but…of course, he never got to use it. Khamenei was eliminated before he could use it but the compound continued to serve as a key military command center for the remaining senior officials in the Iranian regime.
This was not just another underground site.
It was one of the regime’s most important command and control centers, built to sustain military operations and preserve the regime’s ability to direct attacks against Israel and the Western world, even under pressure.
Here is an illustration of Ali Khamenei’s underground bunker beneath the Iranian leadership complex:
The strike was made possible after a lengthy intelligence effort led by the IDF Intelligence Directorate, with a joint effort involving the Research Division, Unit 8200, and Unit 9900. Together, they mapped the compound in detail and enabled a precise and successful strike.
The Iranian regime viewed this bunker as unbreachable.
It is no longer.
Share Mission Brief (Official IDF Substack)
The Lebanon Front
Lebanon remains an active front in this war because Hezbollah chose to make it one when they attacked Israel on March 1st.
Our war is not with the people of Lebanon.
We issued advanced evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon in order to ensure civilians are kept out of harms way, including in Dahieh, a central stronghold of Iranian-backed Hezbollah operatives on Lebanese soil.
The Strikes
Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a broad wave of strikes in Dahieh, targeting numerous Hezbollah terror assets, including headquarters and UAV storage facilities. In addition to the strikes in Beirut, we also struck terrorist infrastructure across Lebanon during the day.
Hezbollah on the Border
At the same time, Hezbollah continues to attack our forces, attacking from southern Lebanon where, according to agreements, they are not supposed to be. On Thursday, Hezbollah terrorists fired anti-tank weapons at IDF troops operating on the front line, injuring three of our soldiers.
In another incident on Friday, five soldiers from the Givati Brigade were seriously wounded by Lebanese rocket fire.
Our soldiers will continue to hold the front line, serving as a buffer between Israeli civilians and any threat from across the border.
So far, since Hezbollah chose to join the campaign and attack Israel, the IDF has struck more than 500 targets in Lebanon, eliminated over 70 Hezbollah operatives, and conducted 26 waves of strikes in Beirut.
Iran = Hezbollah
Hezbollah and the Iranian regime are not separate stories.
They are part of the same terror axis.
Hezbollah continues to destroy the Lebanese state and harm its citizens while serving Iranian interests instead of Lebanese ones. Lebanon and the entire region would be better off if Hezbollah & the IRGC are removed from operating on its soil
Anyone who chooses to attack Israel will pay.
As always, I’ll keep you updated here as things develop.
Thanks,
LTC Nadav Shoshani
IDF Spokesperson for International Media
END
Where Is the IDF Positioned in Lebanon and Why – A Lesson We Couldn’t Ignore
Mar 08, 2026
On October 8th, 2023, less than 24 hours after Israel woke up to the horrors of the massacre carried out by Hamas, the Hezbollah terrorist organization began its attack on Israel.
Rockets, missiles, and UAVs were launched toward Israeli communities in the north, towns that sit only minutes from the border.
Families who had just watched the events of the previous day unfold suddenly realized they could be next.
Within weeks, more than 60,000 Israelis were forced to evacuate their homes, many for over a year.
Entire communities emptied almost overnight.
And the truth is: the rocket fire was only part of Hezbollah’s plan. They had been preparing something far worse.
They called it the “Conquer the Galilee” plan.
The “Conquer the Galilee” Plan
For years, Hezbollah had been planning its “Conquer the Galilee” invasion plan, an October 7th-style attack on a much larger scale.
Imagine: More terrorists. More weapons.
And even closer to the Israeli communities than Hamas had been.
Hezbollah’s Radwan forces — its elite commando units — were training for a large-scale cross-border assault into northern Israel, similar to the October 7 attack, but potentially even larger.
They studied Israeli communities along the border.
They mapped streets and neighborhoods.
They prepared routes of attack.
And like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah built an underground tunnel network near the border designed to allow fighters to move quickly toward Israeli towns.
The goal was not just to fire rockets.
The goal was to enter Israeli communities, massacre civilians and take hostages.
In other words: to bring the horrors of October 7 to northern Israel.
Why That Plan Didn’t Happen
Hezbollah didn’t abandon the plan.
The plan was disrupted.
Israeli troops acted before Hezbollah could launch the attack. But disrupting a plan does not mean the threat disappears.
And after October 7, Israel could no longer afford to ignore threats building just across its borders.
The war for truth online is still very real. If these updates help you understand what’s happening, share this post so more people can get clear information directly from the source.
The Geography That Explains Everything
To understand the current situation on the northern border, you need to understand the terrain.
Many Israeli communities in the north sit directly below elevated terrain in southern Lebanon.
From those hills and mountains, Hezbollah fighters have a clear line of sight into Israeli towns.
On October 8, Hezbollah fighters rushed to those vantage points.
From there, they fired directly into Israeli communities below.
The geography meant Hezbollah could threaten Israeli civilians within minutes.
And for months, that is exactly what they did.
You can see it clearly in these images:
Action Replay: Hezbollah Joins in Again
Now, Hezbollah has escalated its attacks once again. On March 2nd, Hezbollah decided to join the war against Israel alongside Iran, to the detriment of the Lebanese people and the benefit of their sponsor, Iran.
Over the past few days, hundreds of missile launches have been carried out by Hezbollah toward Israel, placing millions of Israeli civilians at risk.
But this time we came prepared. We learned our lesson from October 7th and understood the possibility of another Hezbollah assault on our people.
And this time, it’s different.
Israel cannot allow terrorist forces to sit on its border preparing the next attack. We will not allow Hezbollah to once again fire freely into our towns.
We will not allow tens of thousands of families to be forced from their homes while a terror army sits just across the border preparing its next attack.
Why IDF Troops Are Positioned in Southern Lebanon
This is why Israeli troops are currently positioned at strategic vantage points along the border inside southern Lebanon.
These are forward defensive positions. This move was not a ground maneuver, and not an incursion.
From these strategic locations, Israeli troops can prevent Hezbollah fighters from returning to the same firing points and staging areas they used to attack Israeli communities.
In simple terms:
Instead of Hezbollah standing above Israeli towns with a clear line of fire —
Israeli soldiers now stand between Hezbollah and those communities.
These positions create distance between Hezbollah’s forces and Israeli civilians.
And they ensure that if Hezbollah chooses to attack again, they will face Israeli soldiers first.
The Lesson Israel Refuses to Ignore
October 7 changed the way Israel understands threats on its borders.
The idea that terrorist armies can sit meters away from civilian communities — studying them, preparing to attack them — is no longer something Israel can tolerate.
Forward defense is not about expanding conflict.
It is about preventing the next massacre.
At the end of the day, the mission of the IDF is straightforward: to ensure Israeli civilians can live safely in their homes.
And that is exactly what these positions are meant to guarantee.
Until next time,
LTC Nadav Shoshani
IDF Spokesperson for the International Media
END
THE KURDS
why the Kurds are not joining the fight: they do not trust the USA!
(zerohedge)
Kurds Do Not ‘Trust’ US To Use Them As Proxy Force Against Iran
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 02:45 AM
This should be obvious to any observer of Middle East history and US foreign policy over the last half-century, but a new Axios report cited Kurdish officials who say they don’t ‘trust’ the United States, especially in wake of recent reports suggesting the Kurds will be used as proxy ground forces against Iran.
Iraq’s Kurds have already made clear they oppose joining the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and warn they could face severe Iranian retaliation without ground or air defense support, Axios reported Saturday.
An earlier CNN report claimed the CIA began working to arm Kurdish forces hostile to the Islamic Republic of Iran after the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury.
Initially, President Trump openly voiced support for Kurdish involvement in the conflict but then soon reversed that position on Saturday.
“The Kurds must not be the tip of the spear in this conflict,” Axios reported, citing a senior official from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which is the semi-autonomous region in northeastern Iraq.
The Iraqi Kurds are “staying neutral” because “there is no clarity” on whether Washington seeks full regime change in Iran or only a “change in personnel” – the KRG official said. Trump has stated the United States will be involved in deciding who leads Iran in the future but has not explained how that would really work in the end. The war objectives have seemed to shift rapidly, especially when it comes to daily public facing White House interactions with reporters.
Some military analysts and Middle East pundits online recently attempted to count the number of times the Kurds were effectively “thrown under the bus” in their total history of working with Washington, and concluded that it’s been at least nine times.
The last ‘betrayal’ was merely months ago – when the Pentagon quickly withdrew from northern Syria and simply told the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to become integrated into the Syrian state and army. The only thing is the Jolani/Sharaa government and its HTS militants hate the Kurds.
The SDF had long battled against the Sunni hardliners now ruling from Damascus at this point. The US also regularly failed to step in over years of Turkish aerial bombardment of both Syrian and Iraqi Kurds.
As for the idea of some kind of proxy Kurdish invasion force to use against Iran – some see the idea as being destined for failure, given an Iranian nation of 90+ million with a powerful IRGC ruling military structure would likely feel it as merely a pinprick. It’s anything but certain that it would actually have an impact on leaders in Tehran. Instead, blowback would fall hardest on Kurdish communities across the region, and Shia militias in Iraq might get involved on the other side as well.
Currently, many Kurdish leaders are outraged that US officials ‘leaked’ the arm the Kurds plan, given it effectively puts a big target on every Iranian Kurds’ back in eyes of military leadership in Tehran.
IRAN/US
END
IRAN
Hiis days are truly numbered!!
(zerohedge)
Iran Picks Khamenei’s Son As Next Supreme Leader
Sunday, Mar 08, 2026 – 03:55 PM
Update (1745ET): As was rumored and widely expected, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba, will become Iran’s next supreme leader, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency announced, taking over after his father was killed in an attack by the US and Israel.
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, is the third person to lead the Islamic Republic and the first example of hereditary succession since the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy in the 1979 revolution. In other words, it appears that Iran overthrew a monarchy 47 years ago to institute a… monarchy.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected the country’s next supreme leader in a “decisive vote,” according to Fars. The vote took place hours before the result was made public.
The younger Khamenei was born in the holy city of Mashhad in Iran’s northeast in 1969 as the family’s second-oldest son. He fought briefly in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war that consolidated his father’s rise to power and became a cleric, studying at Iran’s main religious seminary city of Qom, according to Encyclopedia Britannica.
The clip below shows Mojtaba Khamenei announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader in Tehran’s Vanak Square.
He keeps a relatively low public profile, but is seen as close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military force that leads Iran’s missile program and regional alliances with militias, and which has swelled to control as much as 40% of Iran’s economy.
Immediately after the official announcement, the IRGC said it backed and pledged obedience to the new Supreme Leader.
During alleged interference in the country’s 2009 elections that sparked widespread street protests, the opposition accused Mojtaba of being involved.
Bloomberg reported in January that he oversees a sprawling investment empire stretching from Tehran to Dubai and Frankfurt. He didn’t respond to requests for comment at the time.
end
Jim Rickards on Iran //USA/Israel
Martyrdom, Maps, & Munitions: Jim Rickards’ Most Surprising Iran Takes
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Adam Shapr via DailyReckoning.com,
I’ve been a fan of Jim Rickards’ work for around 10 years.
He came onto my radar in 2016 when he predicted Donald Trump would win the election. I saw a clip of him saying the polls were crooked. And that turned out to be a great call.
Jim is never afraid to speak his mind. And his contrarian predictions have uncanny accuracy.
So I’ve been following Jim’s work on the Iran situation closely. Just today he put out a new Iran writeup with surprising, even disturbing ideas in it.
This is what Jim does. His research is sometimes unnerving, but it is always well thought out and logical.
Today, we’re going to cover a few key aspects of Jim’s new report and add context with maps and graphics.
Let’s get started…
Can Iran Wait it Out?
In a section titled, Can Iran Win?, Jim begins by acknowledging that the U.S. and Israeli forces have done far more damage thus far:
Notwithstanding Iran’s limited success in counterattacks, it’s clear that the U.S. and Israel have inflicted far more damage on Iran than Iran has inflicted on the region.
That asymmetric damage ratio will continue to grow. The U.S. and Israeli attacks will expand even as Iran’s capacity to strike back is being heavily degraded.
However, there are deeper considerations here. For example, while taking out the 86-year old Ayatollah Khamenei was satisfying to many, it also handed the Iranian regime a propaganda victory. Here’s Jim:
Martyrdom – The first point is that the deaths of Ayatollah Khamenei and many of the top leaders of Iran may not have been unwanted by them. This is something the Western mind can barely comprehend.
In Islam, martyrdom is considered a blessing from Allah. It guarantees the martyr a place in paradise.
Is it possible that Khamenei and other leaders gathered in one place intentionally knowing that they would eventually be hunted down and killed by the U.S. and Israel? Why not gather in one place and become martyrs together?
This idea of martyrdom applies to the successors and replacements of those killed on day one. Many of those successors have been killed also. To the secular West, this is counted as a military victory.
But to the theocratic Muslim, martyrdom is the victory. This process unites almost all of Iran in a celebration of Allah’s divine will. The more martyrs we create, the stronger Iran becomes as an Islamic Republic.
Again, this is hard for the Western secular mainstream to grasp, but killing their leaders is making Iran stronger. There’s an almost Nietzschean vibe for the Iranian survivors.
This is the type of analysis you won’t see on cable news. Martyrdom is a powerful force in the Islamic world, and there is a decent chance that Khamenei embraced the prospect of death. Even if this isn’t objectively true, what matters is how it is perceived by the world’s 230 million Shia Muslims. And they take this stuff very seriously.
The Ayatollah’s killing could lead to a more unified Iran, and even spread to neighboring Shia populations in Bahrain, Iraq, and beyond.
Challenging Topography
Jim goes on to describe how challenging a ground invasion would be due to Iran’s terrain:
The Terrain – Westerners also have little idea just how big Iran is. It’s the 17th largest country in the world by area out of 195 countries. It also has the 17th largest population in the world with 86 million people.
Iran is not a giant like India or Brazil, but it is far larger than Americans realize. The terrain is challenging with large mountain ranges and deserts. This is not a country ripe for a land invasion like Iraq or Syria.
Iran is far larger than Ukraine, which is still holding out against Russia after four years of war. Iran has what military strategists call strategic depth, which offers the ability to retreat without surrender. Iran isn’t going anywhere and it will not easily be subdued.
Here is a topographical map of the country. Note how mountainous Iran is compared to Iraq directly to the West.
Compared to Iran, Iraq is about as flat as Illinois. It would make an extremely challenging ground invasion. Still, President Trump is not ruling out the prospect of boots on the ground.
How Long Will U.S. and Israeli Munitions Last?
The next item Jim tackles is perhaps the most challenging. A looming shortage of key munitions.
A U.S. Munitions Problem – Most importantly, the U.S. and Israel are running low on offensive and defensive bombs and missiles. This is the result of the massive bombing attacks on Iran, the need to fire thousands of anti-missiles to shoot down thousands of incoming drones and missiles, the fact that the U.S. has allowed its military industrial capacity to atrophy, and the large number of weapons wasted in Ukraine.
The U.S. sent seven Patriot anti-missile batteries to Ukraine at about $1 billion each. All seven were destroyed by Russian hypersonic missiles. I’m certain the U.S. wishes it had those batteries today to protect U.S. bases and troops near Iran. The senile Biden and neocon warmongers may be to blame, but the damage is done.
The U.S. and Israel have inflicted enormous damage on Iran and will continue to do so in the short run. But within weeks, the magazines will run low, and the U.S. will be scrounging around in South Korea and Japan for replacements.
Good luck with that.
U.S. industrial output of 800 cruise missiles per year cannot keep up with Israel and the U.S. launching 100 per week. Ships need to reprovision. Repairs cannot be neglected. Diego Garcia is days away from the battlespace. The U.S. will be badly stretched.
So Jim estimates that America produces around 800 cruise missiles per year. And we’re currently launching about 100 per week. Maybe more. Not great. There are stockpiles, of course, but those are supposed to be for emergency use only. Does this qualify?
Additionally, many U.S. bases close to Iran have been hit by Iranian missiles and drones and have essentially been abandoned. Fortunately U.S. soldiers are largely out of the line of fire. But it also makes refueling and re-arming challenging.
Here’s a map, via the Wall Street Journal, showing the approximate positions of U.S. bases and naval assets in theater:
Source: WSJ
(Note: Since this map was published, the U.S.S. Gerald Ford carrier strike group has moved through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, likely headed to the Arabian Sea.)
To refuel, re-arm, and repair, The U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group would normally go to Bahrain or another nearby base. But those bases have been hit hard. So now they will likely have to go to Diego Garcia, which is thousands of miles away. Here’s a map:
Source: RT
Jim closes his report with a note about the uncertain outcome of a war of attrition.
Iran has a united population; reports of internal protests are greatly exaggerated, especially after the ayatollah ordered the killing of 5,000 protestors just weeks ago.
It has a robust political system despite decapitation strikes. Drones are cheap and easy to manufacture. They can do just as much damage as an F-15 strike when targeted properly.
Iran has strategic depth, allies in Russia and China, and a strong survival instinct.
In a war of attrition, really a war for survival, victory goes to the last man standing.
That may be Iran.
This is why we read Jim Rickards. Smart contrarian takes you won’t hear on mainstream media.
In war, the number one mistake is to underestimate your opponent. We should be careful to heed this historic warning.
This war has the potential to escalate in unpredictable and dangerous ways. Economically, geopolitically, and kinetically.
END
LATE MONDAY MORNING
Iran Says ‘No Room’ for Talks As US Seeks To ‘Partition Country, Take Oil’ – New Hardline Ayatollah Takes Command
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Summary:
- Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
- Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
- Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
- Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”
- CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
* * *
Iran’s military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he’s a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He’s said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.
The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There’s been emerging reports suggesting there’s been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials – and yet probably President Trump doesn’t like to see oil go up in flames.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches.” He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.
With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there’s no halting the fight at this stage: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response,” he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won’t cease until there’s “unconditional surrender” by Iran.
Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime’s core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There’s also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures.
“We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it,” Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. “The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch.”
The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran’s conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there’s a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country – roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.
At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.
He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end – also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:
—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18
—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO (“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”)
The Foreign Ministry’s Baghaei has further addressed President Trump’s ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran’s borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran’s map would look the same after the war, Trump said, “That I can’t tell you. Probably not.”
Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: “The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies,” the FM spokesman said. “For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect.”
As for ‘sacrifice’ – but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.
Current mass WH messaging…
In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to “baseless claims” – including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop – as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there’s likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian’s ‘apology’ that Iran “has not reflected that statement in practice.” It laid out that Iran has “continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war.”
Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. “The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future,” the ministry said.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region – after Tehran’s own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.
Israel’s ‘second front’ in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There’s already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.
Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, however.
Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:
As for ‘what’s next’ – escalation or offramp… the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: “Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.
This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don’t see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: “Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.” But all of this fresh reporting of ‘distance’ between the close allies who are executing Trump’s Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.
END
SUMMARY LATEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
TROUBLE AHEAD
Iran Signals ‘Fight To The End’ Under New Ayatollah, As US Struggles To Define Israeli-Coordinated Endgame
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Summary:
- Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son
- Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
- Timeline to end Iran war? Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.
- Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.
- Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”
- G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.
- Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
- Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
- Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
- Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
- Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”
- CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
* * *
end
TURKEY/IRAQI KURDS/USA/IRAN VS ISRAEL ET ALL
THIS WILL TURN OUT TO BE VERY INTERESTING: THE KURDS ARE BEING ARMED BY THE USA FOR INFLTRATION INTO IRAN!! USA MUST HAVE PROMISED THEM A STATE OF KURDISTAN:
US Orders Americans Out Of Southeast Turkey After Reports Of CIA Arming Kurds
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 12:25 PM
Within the opening days of the Iran-US-Israel war, the State Department urged Americans across 14 countries in the Middle East region to urgently depart. There’s since been an ongoing US government facilitated evacuation effort. Private tour groups have also been coordinating to get people out.
For example, stranded tourists in Israel have rushed south, across the Egyptian border on buses, where they can safely arrange flights from Cairo. For the first time of the war, Turkey has just been added to the list – a rarity given it has long been viewed as a place of stability and is a prime tourist destination.
But the new State Department travel advisory has yet to be extended over the whole of the country, instead Americans are being warned not to visit southeast Turkey and for anyone currently there to depart immediately.
It warns of the potential terrorism, armed conflict, and arbitrary detentions, according to the advisory – at a moment bombs between Iran, Israel, the US and Gulf countries continue to fly. And importantly, a staff draw down:
Washington has advised non-essential staff to leave its consulate near the southern Turkish city of Adana near a key NATO base and ordered US citizens to leave “southeast Turkey,” the US embassy to Ankara said Monday.
There are American troops at several bases in Turkey, particularly at NATO’s major Incirlik air base, near Adana
“On March 9, 2026, the Department of State ordered non-emergency US government employees and US government employee family members to leave Consulate General Adana due to the safety risks,” the US embassy said on X.
It further declared that “Americans in southeast Turkey are strongly encouraged to depart now.”
Last week saw a couple of very serious developments which impact Turkey. First, a ballistic missile from Iran flew over the large Asia minor country and was intercepted by NATO defenses in the Mediterranean.
Also, days ago there was an avalanche of global headlines alleging the CIA was preparing Kurdish groups based in Iraq for a cross-border attack on Iran.
Some of these are the very groups Turkey has long been bombing just across its eastern border in northern Iraq. While Iraq as well as the Iraqi Kurdistan government of the north denied that this was happening – the alleged plan has the potential to destabilize part of southeast Turkey.
The State Dept alert could be alluding to the tense geopolitical situation with the Kurds in the following: “Terrorists may attack tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets, malls, hotels, and places of worship,” the advisory warned.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Mind-Numbing Irony: US Asks Ukraine’s Help To Shoot Down Iran’s Shahed Drones In Gulf
Saturday, Mar 07, 2026 – 07:35 AM
In the ultimate irony of ironies, Financial Times is reporting US officials are discussing the purchase of Ukrainian-made drone interceptors to counter Iranian drones, which some analysts say have proven harder to stop than expected.
Patriot missile interceptors used by US allies cost more than $4 million each, while the Ukrainian systems are significantly cheaper and designed to defeat the same Shahed-type drones used by Russia.
Supplies are dwindling and costs are soaring, after approaching a full week in to Iran’s retaliation on Gulf nations hosting American bases, given that Patriots have remained the interceptor of choice to defend Gulf cities as well as foreign bases, with a single Patriot interceptor possibly running over $13.5 million.
So Ukraine’s experience in facing down Russia’s significant aerial war over four years of conflict could provide for a cheaper alternative.
The Financial Times describes, citing sources familiar with the discussions, that “Ukrainian drone interceptors are proving they can take down Shaheds at a fraction of the cost.”
However, officials have also stated that any export of Ukrainian systems would need Ukrainian government approval, even if assembled abroad.
This might prove a tall order given that Ukraine is already desperate to get more defense weaponry from the West, and in reality is the last country that can just spare some major weapons systems, or even parts and ammo.
But President Zelensky, who has clearly expressed concern that the globe’s attention is fixed squarely on the Iran war, has affirmed he’s in talks with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
“Ukraine’s expertise in intercepting Shahed drones is among the world’s most advanced,” Zelensky has said. “Any cooperation must not compromise our own defenses.”
Across the Gulf, there has remained a situation of steady Iranian missile and drone attacks on US Gulf allies. Below is a breakdown of overnight and Friday morning attacks, via Newsquawk:
Saudi Arabia
• Intercepted ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, including strikes targeting the Prince Sultan Air Base and areas near Riyadh and Al-Kharj.
Qatar
• Intercepted a drone targeting Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the region.
• Residents received emergency alerts instructing them to avoid open areas.UAE
• Intercepted 9 ballistic missiles and 109 drones in a single day.
• Three drones fell inside the country.
• Since the war began: 3 killed and 112 injured in UAE attacks.Bahrain
• Iranian drones were intercepted over Manama, with debris reportedly damaging buildings, including a hotel.
Meanwhile, this sarcastic observation sums up the awkward situation perfectly:
Broke: We need to arm Ukraine; Woke: We don’t need to arm Ukraine; Bespoke: We need Ukraine to arm us.
END
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
Cement, Drugs, And Oil – How The Iran Conflict Could Disrupt Global Supply Chains
Friday, Mar 06, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The conflict in Iran could have consequences for international trade that extend beyond oil and gas.
It has been less than a week since the start of the U.S.–Israeli operations in Iran, and oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—a key global chokepoint for energy shipments—has come to a screeching halt. Approximately 200 oil tankers have been stranded in the Gulf, according to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The strait handles an estimated 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day, with a majority being directed to Asia.
While Tehran has not officially shuttered the narrow waterway, it has been effectively closed by Western insurers, which have canceled coverage or raised risk premiums.
It is not only maritime commerce and energy that are being adversely affected by the conflict.
Planes carrying air cargo out of the Middle East have been grounded. Other vessels have started detouring around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, a move that adds days and raises fuel costs to a trip.
The longer the war drags on, the greater the odds that it could bleed into the broader global supply chain, whether for consumer goods or construction equipment.
Key construction and manufacturing materials such as cement, concrete, and sand are produced across the Middle East. Seven percent of the global aluminum supply flows through the strait. Pharmaceuticals manufactured in India or natural-gas-based products produced in Saudi Arabia traverse the region.
A prolonged conflict in Iran would cause delays and potentially product shortages, leading to higher production and transportation costs.
The Containerized Freight Index has already climbed by more than 5 percent in the past month. In the liquefied natural gas market, shipping rates have increased by 650 percent to $300,000 per day, according to shipbroker Fearnleys.
These developments could revive broad-based price pressures at a time when aggregate inflation levels have been slowing despite the United States’ global tariffs.
The annual inflation rate in the United States is running at 2.4 percent.
Mitigating High Energy Prices
The administration has sought to thaw frozen trade and stabilize global energy markets by offering naval escorts and political risk insurance guarantees—coverage that protects companies against financial losses caused by conflict and hostile geopolitical environments.
It is a welcomed step, but industry players are still cautious, according to Stamatis Tsantanis, CEO and chairman of Seanergy Maritime.
“Shipowners and operators will need to see a clear, secure corridor established before confidence fully returns,” Tsantanis said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.
“The priority for the industry is not just moving cargo, but protecting the lives of seafarers, the value of vessels, and avoiding what could become a major environmental disaster if a tanker were seriously hit in such a narrow and sensitive waterway.”
Uncertainty about the vital artery has contributed to this week’s spike in energy prices.
Crude oil prices are still surging, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate approaching $90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, an international benchmark for oil prices, is inching closer to $93 per barrel.
Natural gas has edged up to about $3 per million British thermal units. Gasoline prices and heating oil futures have risen by 9 percent and 37 percent, respectively, over the past week.
Even with security guarantees or an end to the conflict, restoring trade flows would still take time.
“Shipping has always adapted to geopolitical tensions, but restoring normal flows through Hormuz will depend on credible security arrangements that give crews, owners, and insurers the confidence that transit through the strait is genuinely safe,” Tsantanis said.
‘Magnitude of the Drag’
For now, market watchers are mainly concerned about the effects of rising energy costs on near-term inflation and growth prospects—and the Federal Reserve’s policy strategies.
“A brief spike in oil prices would have little lasting effect on inflation. Energy prices would need to be sustained higher over weeks or months before we see it push CPI meaningfully higher,” David Rees, global head of economics at Schroders, said in a March 3 note.
“However, higher sustained energy inflation would squeeze real incomes, weigh on growth, and raise doubts about whether central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, can continue easing monetary policy.”
The rule of thumb is that every $10 jump in oil prices shaves off 0.1 percentage point from gross domestic product growth and increases inflation by 0.2 percentage points.
Additionally, rising oil prices tend to have a lag effect in the broader economy, according to Sarah Wolfe, a strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Consumption generally begins to slow two to three months after a price shock and remains tepid for five to six months.
“The magnitude of the drag depends on the duration and persistence of higher energy prices,” she said in a March 4 note.
The situation, meanwhile, could force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to reconsider easing efforts.
The Fed, facing an energy supply shock, is likely to keep interest rates on hold as officials assess the situation and watch the incoming data.
At a March 3 Bloomberg event, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the conflict has ignited uncertainty surrounding the outlook for policy and the economy.
“The question I think that we are wrestling with, and markets are wrestling with, is, how long is this going to last? How bad is it going to get? Is it going to look more like Russia–Ukraine, or is it going to look more like Hamas attacking Israel, and that’s going to have effects on monetary policy,” Kashkari said.
These conflicts can make the inflationary trajectory harder to predict, he said.
Futures market data indicate that traders have started pushing out the first quarter-point rate cut of 2026 to September, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in May and the president’s new pick takes over the job.
But the brief Iran–Israel war in June 2025 underscored how resilient the global economy has become to Middle East shocks. Oil spiked above $82 a barrel after the United States and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, but prices slid back below $70 within months. Growth and inflation in the United States and other major economies were hardly impacted.
END
ROBERT H
Trouble in never never land
One might wonder why they stopped redemptions just like Blackstone. Yes private equity is a bitch when you are the market. Because there there is no exit. And investment in black holes like Ukraine is a Losers’ bet.
And one might further wonder why their stock is still widely recommended?
War takes money. Money that even printing cannot solve without winning new assets. When GDP growth is none existent Private Equity suffers losses simply because inflation is needed and growth to offset loans. Call it what you want most Private Equity today is simply borrowed capital with a clock that cannot be turned off. That is why redemptions stop and Investors cry. Sucked in by the allure of higher yields by those thought to have knowledge and experience.
It is always a recurring theme. People never learn.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
NHL legend Ron Duguay has Stage 4 cancer; NBC meteorologist Jeriann Ritter, 49, has ALS; BR: singer Ivete Sangalo hospitalized after fall at home; UK: BBC-TV’s Finnian Garbutt, 28, dying of cancer
UK: actor Adam Thomas, 34, has rheumatoid arthritis; SI: actor Elvin Ng undergoes emergency retinal surgery; AU: Warriors’ Chad Townsend, 35, collapses on flight; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerMar 8 |
Celebs:
UNITED STATES
NHL legend Ron Duguay, partner of Sarah Palin, diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer
February 25, 2026
Former New York Rangers player Ron Duguay has been diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer, and his family has set up a GoFundMe page to help cover his medical expenses. The hockey legend’s two daughters wrote in the fundraiser’s description that their father – who is currently dating former Alaska governor Sarah Palin – would never normally ask for help, “but after many conversations as a family, we decided to create this fundraiser for him because we’ve seen firsthand the weight this battle has placed on him, both physically and financially.” Duguay, 68, told Page Six that his cancer started in his colon, resulting in the removal of his appendix and gallbladder.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Beloved TV Meteorologist Reveals ALS Diagnosis in Deeply Moving Video
February 25, 2026
Jeriann Ritter [49], a meteorologist at WHO 13 News, an NBC affiliate in Iowa, revealed she’s been diagnosed with ALS. In an emotional and frank conversation with WHO sports director Keith Murphy that aired yesterday (Feb. 24), Ritter said doctors believe she has bulbar amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS, to which there is no treatment or cure. She said the first symptom that prompted her to see a doctor was her speech. “I think my teeth are moving. Like, something’s weird,” she told her dentist, who thought Ritter maybe had symptoms of a stroke. Following several referrals and months of appointments, Ritter saw a neurologist, who noted something on Ritter’s tongue that led her to believe ALS was the reason for the change in speech. Going forward, she’s wants people to know that she’s not scared and wants to finish the race strong. “I didn’t forecast this storm hitting,” she said about her diagnosis through tears. “It’s raining right now, and I’m just trying to find the sunshine. But I’m gonna do what I’ve always been doing for almost 50 years of my life. I’m gonna live, and I’m gonna love. That’s what I’m gonna be doing.”
No age reported.
BRAZIL
Ivete Sangalo shows face with injuries after fainting at home; singer is hospitalized in Salvador
February 26, 2026
Ivete Sangalo spoke about her state of health after being hospitalized in a hospital in Salvador this Wednesday (25). The singer, who built a mansion in her hometown, Juazeiro, revealed that she suffered from diarrhea, which she believes is the result of a viral infection. “Last night, I had diarrhea, probably a virus I caught. I had very intense diarrhea, a very strong headache. I spent the night going to the bathroom,” said Ivete, who has just finished her Carnival marathon that took her through several states in Brazil. Ivete showed her injured face to her followers. She claims she fainted due to dehydration and had cuts on her forehead and the side of her right eye. “Around seven in the morning, I think during my trip to the bathroom, I became dehydrated because of the diarrhea, my blood pressure dropped, and I fainted. I fell to the ground,” she recounts. Ivete assures fans it was just a scare and reassured them. “I want to assure you that I am well cared for, well attended to by very competent doctors. I appreciate the affection and concern, but I am fine and I will be wonderful.” This is the second time in recent years that Ivete has suffered health problems after the Carnival marathon. In 2024, a week after the end of the festivities, she was admitted to the hospital with pneumonia. As in 2026, she also reported having caught a viral infection.
UNITED KINGDOM
TV star Finnian Garbutt, 28, in ‘last stages of his life’ after cancer diagnosis
March 2, 2026
Hope Street star Finnian Garbutt has revealed that he’s in the ‘last stages of his life’ four years after being diagnosed with cancer. The 28-year-old star, who has portrayed fan-favourite police constable Ryan Power in the BBC One NI series since 2023, was diagnosed with cancer at the age of 25 after finding a lump behind his ear. The actor made the discovery in 2020 and, after lockdown lifted, his barber noticed that the lump had grown significantly. He was subsequently diagnosed with Stage 3 skin cancer. Finnian underwent 12 hour surgery in February 2022 and had 75 lymph nodes removed from his neck and his face. In August 2024, he was diagnosed with Stage IV melanoma, just two weeks before the arrival of his daughter. And on Sunday (March 1), he shared the devastating news on social media that the cancer had ‘progressed rapidly’. Writing on Instagram, Finnian said: ‘Over the last month or so I’ve been having quite a bit of pain in my back and hip. ‘My cancer team admitted me the other day for observations and to do a few scans. Unfortunately the scans have shown that the cancer has progressed rapidly in my body and I am now entering the last stages of life.’
Adam Thomas supported over ‘big day’ in ‘unpredictable’ health battle
February 27, 2026
Adam Thomas has been flooded with messages of support as he shared his latest health update, saying it was a ‘big day’ and opening up on the ‘unpredictable’ reality of living with a painful condition. The former Emmerdale actor first shared his battle with chronic pain, as a result of being diagnosed with arthritis at the age of 34. He told fans how he had been diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), which came ahead of him taking part in Strictly Come Dancing in 2023. At the time, he said his symptoms started with his knees before moving to his wrists, fingers and now ankles and toes. He said his diagnosis came after several blood tests and visits to doctors and hospitals. But Adam later told how his diagnosis had changed to psoriatic arthritis, which the NHS describes as a “long-term condition that causes joint pain, swelling and stiffness”. It was last year that the Waterloo Road star said he was ‘pain-free’ more than two years after he first started suffering from daily pain throughout his body. But in January, Adam was honest with fans as he admitted he’d suffered a setback. Now, Adam has shared a fresh update as shared a video in which he spoke about living with the autoimmune disease, as he tried to inject his medication himself for the first time.
Researcher’s note – Autoimmune arthritis/psoriatic arthritis/ rheumatoid arthritis can all be found on the List of Adverse Events in Pfizer’s Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine [sic] Post Marketing Experience Report under: APPENDIX 1. LIST OF ADVERSE EVENTS OF SPECIAL INTEREST: https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/5.3.6-postmarketing-experience.pdf
No age reported.
NORWAY
King Harald hospitalized on Tenerife
February 24, 2026
King Harald [89] is currently in Tenerife, but here the trip away from the cold of Norway has taken a turn. “His Majesty the King was admitted to the Hospital Universitario Hospiten Sur in Tenerife this evening. The king is being treated for infection and dehydration, and his condition is reportedly good. The Norwegian Royal House announces that King Harald’s personal physician is traveling to Tenerife to assist the local healthcare system. The royal couple is currently on a winter holiday in Tenerife. We will provide an update on the King’s health during Wednesday, February 25, after the physician has assessed the situation,” the Norwegian royal family concludes by writing.
SINGAPORE
Actor Elvin Ng undergoes emergency retinal surgery after noting dark circular shadow in eye
February 25, 2026
Local actor Elvin Ng did not have the best start to the Year of the Horse. He experienced a close shave this week and could have even gone blind if he had not sought immediate medical attention. The 45-year-old Mediacorp artiste disclosed on social media on Feb 24 that he had undergone a retinal detachment/reattachment surgery on his right eye the previous evening. Retinal detachment is a medical emergency where the light-sensitive tissue at the back of the eye lifts or pulls away from its normal position, causing sudden flashes of light, a surge in floaters or a shadow/curtain over the vision. Retinal detachment surgery is a procedure performed to reattach the retina to the back of the eye. “It was very urgent and a major operation that had to be done ASAP, before fluid accumulation in the eye reached the eye centre, which could then cause permanent blindness,” Ng wrote. He posted photos of himself in a hospital gown before the procedure, on the operating table with his doctors and with his eye patched up as he prepared to be discharged.
Researcher’s note – 20,000% Increase in Retinal Eye Damage Following COVID-19 Vaccination [sic]: https://www.sgtreport.com/2023/05/20000-increase-in-retinal-eye-damage-following-covid-19-vaccination/
AUSTRALIA
Former Warriors star Chad Townsend collapses on flight to NRL’s Las Vegas round
February 26, 2026
NRL premiership winner Chad Townsend has been taken off a flight bound for Los Angeles after falling ill. Townsend got on the plane in Sydney before falling ill and had to be assisted by fellow passengers and paramedics before landing safely in America. “Understood he fainted and was feeling hot and cold,” Weidler said. The 35-year-old posted an update to social media on Thursday morning. “On the plane today I started to feel light headed and nauseous, I then started to get hot and cold flushes followed by constant sweating. I got up to go to the toilet and then fainted. I was attended to by an amazing doctor by the name of Jimmy… and nurse Brooke Gidley. I am so grateful for the care and support they showed me. The whole ordeal was a little scary but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am feeling fine.”
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DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Pancreatic cancer (& other cancers) are surging in young persons, very aggressive yet there are subtle signs often missed but why this age demographic shift to young persons? the ‘whispering’ cancer
until it then shouts, by then it is too late as too far advanced, ‘Its stealth is what makes pancreatic cancer uniquely dangerous.’ Around 80 percent of cases are diagnosed only after the disease has
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMar 8 |
spread beyond the pancreas, at which point surgery – currently the only potential cure – is no longer an option.
ssshhhh, come close, come closer to the screen, listen, ssshhhh, please do not say anything, do not let RFK Jr. at HHS or Makary at FDA or Bhattacharya at NIH hear this, or Prasad or Oz etc., please do not, they will shit themselves for they think it’s candy causing it, they think it may be Malone’s horse semen they are all drinking now since word is it helped Tim Walz replace his blue pill and they having issues too….but ssshhh, come a bit closer…between us, it is the Malone Bourla Bancel Pfizer Sahin Moderna Weissman Kariko Fauci Hahn Redfield et al. mRNA vaccine…but do not tell RFK Jr., leave him be, as he plans his next vacation going dinosaur bone hunting…let him hunt…let them all continue pulling flint from between their toes as we deal with the real issue of ending this mRNA vaccine nightmare.
Nightmare is that all forms of cancer are rising, and we argue as a direct link to the deadly Malone Bourla et al. mRNA vaccine that RFK Jr. and Makary and The Outlaw Wales refuses to withdraw from US market.
What can we do as all these cancers surge? As all these diseases surge? Due to the mRNA vaccine.
NEWSWIZE
| Intelligence Says Moscow Passed Targeting Data to TehranU.S. intelligence says Russia shared targeting information with Iran that could threaten American forces across the Middle East, complicating a widening conflict while President Trump pushes for decisive military results and demands Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Petraeus Says U.S.-Israel Air Supremacy Secures Strategic Edge as Trump Demands Iran’s SurrenderRetired Gen. David Petraeus told CNN that U.S.-Israeli forces have largely neutralized Iran’s air defenses and gained air supremacy, a major strategic win as the campaign expands and President Trump demands Iran’s unconditional surrender.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Pakistani Businessman Says Iran Coerced Him Into Plot Against TrumpAsif Merchant claims Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forced him into a 2024 scheme that listed President Trump among targets, and prosecutors say he tried to hire hit men before undercover agents intervened. He faces life in prison if convicted.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Huge Storm System Poised to Threaten Eight Midwestern and Southern StatesA powerful storm system is forecast to impact Texas through Wisconsin Friday, with risks of tornadoes, large hail and 80 mph wind gusts, and officials warn people to secure shelter and stay informed overnight.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Pahlavi Accepts Interim Role to Guide Iran Toward ElectionsReza Pahlavi says he accepted a mandate to lead a short, orderly transition if Iran’s regime collapses, stressing stability and elections while Washington — and President Trump in particular — has withheld formal endorsement.READ THE FULL REPORT |
END
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Trump and VP Vance Lead Dover Transfer Honoring Six Fallen TroopsPresident Trump and Vice President JD Vance attended a dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base for six soldiers killed by an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait. The president met families and offered his praise and respect for the fallen.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Two GOP Senators Switch to Back Talking Filibuster, Boosting SAVE ActTwo Republican senators shifted to support using the talking filibuster to advance the SAVE Act, improving chances for majority passage that would sidestep the modern ‘zombie’ filibuster and could involve Vice President Vance.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Pentagon Publishes Video Showing Strike on Giant Iranian Drone CarrierCENTCOM released video showing U.S. strikes that set a giant Iranian drone carrier ablaze, describing the ship as roughly WWII carrier-sized amid an operation that has struck over 3,000 Iranian targets since February 28.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Schiff Flustered as Maher Exposes Obama War-Powers QuoteSenator Adam Schiff was flustered on Bill Maher’s show when a statement he attacked as coming from Trump was revealed to have been made by Obama, underscoring perceived Democratic inconsistencies on presidential war powers.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden’s Funeral Quip at Jesse Jackson Event Draws Sharp CriticismAt Jesse Jackson’s funeral, Joe Biden joked that he was ‘a hell of a lot smarter than most of you,’ a comment that reopened concerns among conservatives about his verbal slips and judgment in public settings.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
THIS IS A GOOD ONE!!
Gigantic US Error Or All Part Of A Plan?
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Via Rabobank,
Anybody thinking US payrolls, even at -92K, matters much in the current environment is probably at the head of the queue to be replaced by an AI soon. That data series is always volatile and 2.5m undocumented workers are estimated to have left the US since Trump was re-elected: 394K foreign-born workers lost their jobs in the reported month while the native-born series rose 877K, albeit after a shocking 2.5m drop of its own the month before. How can anyone take these numbers seriously even if the underlying signal is deadly serious?
This is eclipsed by Brent oil this morning trading over $110 with WTI at $107: both look to be going exponential, perhaps even opening up the $150 scenario the GCC warn of. Worse, that doesn’t account for more dramatic moves in diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, key chemicals like sulphur, and gases like helium, without which not a lot moves in the industrial economy, grows in the agricultural economy, or is produced in terms of metals like copper and tech goods like chips.
In short, this is now starting to look like a potential combination of the 1973 post-Yom Kippur War oil shock, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War commodity shock, and the 2020-21 Covid supply chain shock.
The longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes in a domino effect, which is exactly what oil is now showing to a market that saw some takes last week that ‘things could be a lot worse.’ Well, now they are: and if we are still in the same position this time next week, things could be quite terrifying.
Yet while credible estimates today are that if all fighting were to suddenly cease, it would take two weeks to start to right the ship and a further two months to get back to normal, what we should call Gulf War 3 is showing many signs of widening its geography and escalating within it.
On geography: even if Trump is reportedly now against using the Kurds as a military wedge against Tehran (perhaps due to Turkish opposition), Azerbaijan, which was recently struck by Iran, is another matter. So is Pakistan, which has underlined its mutual defence pact with the Saudis. EU member Cyprus has reported that the drone which struck it was fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and was a Russian Shaheed model, not an Iranian one. Russia has also openly said that it isn’t neutral in this conflict, and favours Iran, alongside reports that it’s providing Tehran with data to help it strike its opponents. In Lebanon, Israeli actions are intensifying.
On escalation: after an apology to its neighbours from Iran’s president was rebuffed by the IRGC, the weekend saw strikes on energy facilities against both sides, where Iran came off worse. Moreover, we saw several reports of attacks on desalination plants: if those critical facilities were to go in the region, much of its population would have to as well. Trump is reportedly weighing the introduction of special forces ground troops into Iran, while a third carrier strike group is now on the way. Moreover, Tehran has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former Supreme Leader, to replace him. He is clearly unacceptable to both the US and Israel and reflects the hardest of lines from the regime rather than any possible compromise, Venezuela style.
It’s also time to take a deep breath and note energy expert Anas Alhajji is asking if this is a gigantic US error or part of a plan.
I’d flagged 2026, besides telling 2025 to “hold my beer”, was logically going to see the US use its military to disrupt upstream supply chains heading to China to counterbalance the downstream and rare-earths midstream (i.e., processing) dominance Beijing can coerce it with. The goal was cheap commodities for them and pricey ones for others.
Alhajji takes this further to note that the US is *relatively* less impacted by the tidal wave of economic and market chaos heading our way:
- the US (with the Americas) is relatively energy self-sufficient: what if the US were to stop exporting oil, its historic policy norm, to bring WTI down sharply, for example? Could we, as others float, see $200 oil globally and $50 oil State-side?
- Likewise, US LNG is now the lowest risk global choice: who will trust the Gulf as a secure provider again unless the entire region is brought under a true Pax Americana?
- The US, with the Americas, is also self-sufficient in many commodities being choked off directly or indirectly via Hormuz. That includes fertilizer, which means US and LatAm food supplies could remain secure when others’ aren’t. It also includes helium, which allows for the manufacture of semiconductors, when others may be about to fall short.
By contrast, Europe is again in a bad position in this looming crisis, as are energy- and commodity-reliant Asian exporters already struggling with US tariffs.
China will have to rely on its stockpiles for a while, then Russia, which greatly strengthens Moscow’s hand in that relationship.
Perhaps this is paranoia or looking for a strategy in a geopolitical miscalculation; or it could have been a plan B if Iran didn’t ‘do a Venezuela’; or it might just be a happy coincidence the US can now take advantage of if it wishes.
Yet the Donroe Doctrine ‘Shield of the Americas’ project launched at the same time as Gulf War 3, the increased likelihood Cuba flips to the US camp, following the pressure on Greenland, and the evident lead set by US economic (and military) statecraft is quite the coincidence if this is all just random.
Indeed, it’s incredibly important to grasp that this *might* be the Great Game being played, because if it is, assuming “because markets” will bail us out (“Iran/Trump can’t let this happen”) could be false hope.
Oil vey, indeed.
Week ahead
Tuesday: sees more of Japan Q4 GDP, Aussie NAB business confidence, German trade data, Chinese trade data, and the US NFIB small business survey and existing home sales.
Wednesday: has US CPI. Again, irrelevant right now.
Thursday: it’s US trade data and initial claims, housing starts and building permits.
Friday: sees UK industrial production and trade data, Canadian employment, US personal income and spending and the PCE deflator, durable goods, initial claims, JOLTS data, and Michigan inflation expectations.
END
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL/ATTACK ON OIL SITES
A ‘War Of The Oil Refineries’ Opens As Israel Bombs Key Tehran Sites, After Which Haifa Refinery Targeted
6 – 03:25 PM
Update(1425): Is a tit-for-tat oil depot war opening? This could be the next phase of escalation, already in progress.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has struck Israel’s Haifa refinery, framing the attack as direct retaliation for fresh Israeli strikes on energy infrastructure inside Iran.
Iranian media alleged that US and Israeli warplanes started the tit-for-tat by hitting an oil depot in southern Tehran. The semi-official Fars News Agency reported the storage site was among the latest targets in the ongoing major bombing campaign across the country.
Meanwhile, Tehran itself is again under heavy assault, with reports that a major Tehran refinery has been hit.
Massive fireballs above Tehran:
* * *
Update(1310ET): Are we witnessing an olive branch from Tehran? That’s assuming that President Pezeshkian and the Foreign Ministery are even in charge – also as the IRGC is clearly running this war, and may have already even issued orders for autonomy/division of action among the various military command chains. Here’s the message that Iran’s Foreign Ministry put out moments ago:
President Pezeshkian expressed openness to de-escalation within our region-provided that our neighbors’ airspace, territory, and waters are not used to attack the Iranian People. Gesture to our neighbors was almost immediately killed by President Trump.
Saturday has clearly seen a continuation of Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf countries, including a direct drone hit on Dubai international airport Saturday morning.
And into Saturday evening in Iran (local):
So de-escalation does not in fact seem to be happening, also as there are reports of a third US supercarrier en route to the region, possibly to relieve the long-deployed USS Gerald R. Ford carrier. Here is the Iranian Foreign Minister’s statement.
Below is the latest on the potential third carrier deployment, which would be a first since Bush’s Iraq war (having three carriers in the Mideast theatre), per FOX and open source reporting:
The U.S. Navy is preparing to deploy a third carrier strike group to the Middle East near Iran in the coming weeks, according to a report by Fox News, with the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) and her Carrier Strike Group having now completing their Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX), expected to depart from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia sometime before the end of March for a regularly scheduled deployment to the U.S. 5th Fleet Area-of-Responsibility. However, due to the ongoing hostilities with Iran, it is not known if she will relieve the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), who entered the Red Sea on Thursday and has been deployed now for nearly 11-months, or if she will arrive to further reinforce the U.S. Navy in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Iran state media says a new Supreme Leader could be chosen within the next 24 hours, as no doubt the various reformist vs. hardline factions are jostling – likely with the more conservative candidates to win out.
* * *
As the US-Israeli war on Iran grinds into its second week, having completed a full week of what’s largely been escalation alongside no real efforts at talks, the rhetoric on all sides is still expanding just as fast as the missile exchanges. Iran continues to get bombed very intensely, while several overnight ballistic missile and drone waves hit Israel.
The biggest development is that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran will never capitulate, pushing back after Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. But unexpectedly Pezeshkian has apologized to Gulf countries for coming under attack.
But strangely, in something which suggests how little in control Pezeshkian actually is (as more likely the IRGC is running the show, also as the Council of Experts delays choosing a Khamenei successor), Iran has continued launching drones and missiles toward Israel and targets across the Gulf – again, even as officials insist Tehran has no intention of attacking neighboring states unless attacks originate from their territory.
Trump, however, is already declaring victory while promising even more escalation. Posting on Truth Social, the president warned that “today Iran will be hit very hard” while saying that new targets could soon be added. “Under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death, because of Iran’s bad behavior, are areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time,” Trump wrote.
He also claimed Tehran had effectively backed down in the region, saying Pezeshkian had “surrendered” to neighboring countries and “promised that it will not shoot at them anymore.” According to Trump, “This promise was only made because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack.”
And yet…
The president went further, declaring:
Iran is no longer the ‘Bully of the Middle East,’ they are, instead, ‘THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST,’ and will be for many decades until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse! Today Iran will be hit very hard!
On the ground, the ‘second front’ of the conflict is widening: Israeli air and ground raids on the Lebanese town of Nabi Chit in the eastern Bekaa Valley reportedly killed at least 41 people, as fighting with Hezbollah intensifies. Beirut has also been getting bombed from the air, with whole buildings leveled.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia says it newly intercepted two ballistic missiles headed toward Prince Sultan Air Base and drones targeting the Shaybah oilfield.
Rare close-up Tel Aviv strike footage, with Iron Dome clearly struggling and failing in this instance:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is warning the region could quickly spiral further, freshly announcing that all US and Israeli bases and interests will be treated as “primary targets” if attacks on Iran continue. This does not feel very ‘de-escalationy’ at all, or a country that is actually ‘apologizing’ to its Gulf neighbors.
Tehran is also busy issuing internal warnings to its population as the war expands, warning firmly against any anti-government protests while the country is under attack. Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence accused what it called “American-Zionist mercenaries” of photographing missile impact sites and sending footage to “terrorist satellite networks” abroad, warning citizens that assisting foreign media or intelligence operations will be treated as a national security offense.
Over in Israel, there’s also a similarly heavy military censorship campaign and apparent attempt to conceal the true extent of damage after a week of war. Israeli media on Saturday morning reported the eighth missile launch since midnight, but with the projectile reportedly intercepted.
In the Gulf, the IRGC claimed responsibility for striking another tanker on Saturday. According to Sepah News, “An oil tanker with the trade name Louise P with the flag of the Marshall Islands, one of the assets of the terrorist America, was hit by a drone in the middle of the Persian Gulf.” And quickly after, reports of a second, via Bloomberg:
Another bulk carrier signaled it was Chinese-owned as it sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that’s been effectively closed for a week due to multiple attacks in the area.
The Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean broadcast its destination signal as “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” as it traversed the chokepoint. The vessel exited the strait Saturday, according to ship-tracking data, after picking up its cargo from the United Arab Emirates’ Mina Saqr port on March 5.
Meanwhile, the almost daily changing White House talking points on the war – whether related to justification or moving goalposts and objectives – appears to be running up against the realism consensus of the intelligence community.
A classified US National Intelligence Council assessment reportedly concluded that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic. According to The Washington Post the report was completed roughly a week before the war began, and it outlined succession scenarios if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, concluding institutional mechanisms would likely keep the system intact and that opposition groups were “unlikely” to seize power.
There continues to be speculation and back-and-forth over the true depth of Iran’s ballistic missile capability: running low or just getting started? It’s impossible for outside observers to know for sure…
Back in the US, there is a somber moment as the bodies of six American service members killed in the conflict are scheduled to arrive at Dover Air Force Base for a dignified transfer ceremony, which both Trump and Vice President JD Vance are attending.
END
US Energy Chief Says Oil ‘Fear Premium’ Over Iran Is Temporary, Says Prices To Fall In ‘Weeks, Not Months’
Sunday, Mar 08, 2026 – 03:05 PM
Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the rounds on network TV Sunday to reassure viewers that the sharp rise in oil and gas prices due to the Iran war – which Trump has no problem sticking US consumers with for a while – would prove short-lived, and has downplayed the spike as a transient “fear premium” vs. a fundamental supply issue.
In conversations to CBS, CNN, and Fox News, wright emphasized that global energy markets remain well-supplied despite disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude.
“This is a disruption on the way to a much better place to end a 47-year war against America,” he told Fox.
“The world is not short of oil today or natural gas,” Wright told CBS’ “Face the Nation,” adding “You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace.”
Wright also projected that gasoline prices could fall below $3 per gallon “relatively soon,” and that any worst-case disruption would only last “weeks, not months” – a line he gave to both CBS and CNN.
The comments come as Brent crude futures have risen sharply in recent days, pushing U.S. pump prices higher and raising concerns about inflationary pressures ahead of midterm elections. The administration has framed the military operation – dubbed by some officials as aimed at neutralizing long-term threats from Tehran – as ultimately beneficial for global energy stability.
Wright also highlighted early signs of progress in restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz. “A large tanker went through the Strait of Hormuz 24 hours ago,” he said, adding that U.S. and allied efforts are “massively attriting” Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones.
He indicated that naval escorts could be provided for initial tankers to ensure safe passage, with normal commercial traffic expected to resume “relatively soon.”
He repeated the “one large tanker has already gone through” talking point to Fox.
To address immediate supply pressures, Wright disclosed diplomatic efforts to reroute stranded cargoes. He said the U.S. had coordinated with India to divert Russian oil tankers originally bound for China, describing the move as pragmatic and temporary. “A lot of Russian oil hanging out on Asian waters,” he noted, adding that India – already increasing imports from the U.S. and Venezuela – had proven “a great partner.” Wright stressed no change in U.S. policy toward Russian oil sales, framing the rerouting as a way to quickly bring barrels to market and ease refining bottlenecks in Asia.
Wright also justified the Iran was as a necessary step to end Tehran’s decades-long disruption of energy markets.
“Iran has terrorized America, the neighborhood, and energy markets for 47 years,” he said with a straight face. “We believe this is a small price to pay to get to a world where energy prices are returned back to where they were.”
Meanwhile, he confirmed that there’s no actual plan for what post-conflict Iran will look like (shocker!).
“We don’t know what regime will be in place at the end of this conflict,” he told CBS. “What we do know is that regime will not have a massive weapons arsenal…and will no longer be a massive threat to Americans and to the Middle East and the global oil supplies.”
And there you have it, the talking points are officially OUT.
END
OIL SUNDAY NIGHT
It’s Sunday night and the much-hoped for de-escalation has not happened.
This has triggered an explosive move higher in WTI…
…topping $110 for the first time since June 2022… (Goldman nailed that call)
US equity futures have dramatically ‘broken the box’…
Treasury yields are up 5bps, recoupling modestly from Friday’s ‘weak jobs decoupling’…
Gold is down, the dollar up, and crypto ugly.
For all the color you can eat on Iran-related market angst, the following posts should help:
‘Everything You Knew About The Market Flipped This Week’: Top Goldman Trader
Hartnett: US Politics Dictate March De-escalation To Iran War
’10 Sigma’: Goldman’s Hedge Fund Honcho ‘Level Sets’ After Extraordinary Week
Goldman Panics, Expects Oil To Hit $100 Next Week And Reach “Demand Destruction” Levels
And don’t forget there is a lot more risk than just Iranian stress:
Insurance Companies Crushed As Private Credit Contagion Spills Over
Deutsche Bank Warns Energy Shock “Existential Threat” To Airlines, May Force Some To Ground Fleets
These moves come as the Trump administration said it is not prioritizing using the US Department of the Treasury to trade oil futures as it weighs ways to ease surging global energy prices, according to Yahoo Finance.
Officials have considered having Treasury buy or sell energy futures, but believe the agency would have limited ability to move such a large and active market.
Daily trading volumes have surged during the recent conflict, diluting the impact any single participant could have.
The White House is also reluctant to immediately tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Heavy drawdowns under former president Joe Biden left the reserve about 60% full, while repeated withdrawals have created maintenance issues.
Still, officials acknowledge that even a modest release could send a strong signal to calm markets.
Domestic gas (pump) prices soaring (and are about to go even higher)…
The report says that the administration is reviewing a wide range of responses.
Doug Burgum said “everything is being considered,” from immediate steps to longer-term measures, as officials try to contain rising fuel costs that pose both geopolitical risks and political pressure ahead of November’s midterm elections.
$5 gas prices at the pump is imminent!!
Given the current moves we are seeing, we suspect that laissez-faire attitude will shift rapidly and some kind of intervention is imminent.
end
MONDAY MORNING
G-7 Panic? World Leaders Weigh Emergency SPR Dump As Oil Prices Erupt Into Triple-Digit Territory
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 07:40 AM
Asian and European equities traded lower, while U.S. equity futures fell 1% as Brent and WTI futures traded in triple-digit territory following the weekend escalation in Middle East tensions. The energy shock we have been warning about for the past week, citing top institutional desks from JPMorgan, UBS, Goldman, and others, is now staring G-7 leaders directly in the face as energy market panic erupts.
You know conditions are deteriorating very quickly when the Financial Times reports that G-7 finance ministers are set to hold an 8:30 a.m. New York time call to discuss a possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to combat runaway crude prices, as Brent crude hit $119/bbl overnight. Such a move to dump SPR on global markets shows just how afraid policymakers are that the oil shock could crush consumer sentiment and, in turn, hit economic growth.
There have been five coordinated SPR dumps onto the global market with the International Energy Agency. The last two occurred in 2022, in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy prices through the roof. However, as we must note, dumping SPRs in 2022 did not work so well, and the market will likely look beyond current flows and focus on overall stockpiles being drained (read: here & here).
The scramble by G-7 leaders comes as Brent crude hit $119/bbl in Asia, up from about $72 before Operation Epic Fury kicked off more than a week ago, now in its second week. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Gulf producers cutting output as storage fills up, the worst-case scenario appears to be unfolding: an energy shock.
To cushion the shock, potentially bridging some of the supply gap of a short-term war (but definitely not a longer term or wider disruption) FT sources said world leaders could release 300 million to 400 million barrels, or about 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion-barrel reserve.
Given the extreme moves, any announcement is likely to move prices (and indeed is already being somewhat discounted) but the question remain of whether that will actually impact the cost of pump prices in America (which are set to soar to $5 a gallon, however briefly, on a lagged response to WTI and RBOB price surges currently).
As Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky noted:
Such a release would buy time. If the disruption proves temporary, a coordinated SPR release makes sense. If the disruption persists for months, those reserves might arguably be more valuable at higher prices or in a more acute shortage
WTI is down $20 from its overnight highs on the report of the coordinated SPR release…
Late last week, JPMorgan’s top commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva, did the ‘Hormuz Math‘ and warned that production shut-ins were imminent – hence the weekend production cuts by major Gulf states and Brent crude spiking into triple-digit territory.
Additionally, energy economist Anas Alhajji warned UBS analysts last week about SPR limitations:
“The impact of the U.S. SPR is limited. Saudi Arabia is completely out of the picture. All of that spare capacity in OPEC is out of the picture. So what do we do? We are then left relying on demand destruction to curb prices. And because of the panic buying, prices would go above $100 easily in this scenario.”
Even if the conflict in the Middle East ended today, Alhajji explained that returning Gulf oil and gas production to a ‘normal state’ would take two months because of logistical and technical issues. This only implies that an energy shock has begun. Deutsche Bank warned in recent days that this was an “existential threat” to airlines, and next could very well be a shock to consumers. The only question now is whether the shock is big enough to cause a financial blow to countries that are among the largest importers of crude from the Gulf region, such as China and other Asian countries.
END
a no go!!
G-7 Leaders Reject SPR Release Plan, But ‘Stand Ready’ After Initial Jawbone Efforts Fade
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 10:55 AM
Update (1055ET):
G-7 finance ministers used headlines in Asia, including calls for a meeting to discuss an SPR release, as a purely performative attempt to calm chaotic energy markets.
Now that the emergency meeting is over, the group of leaders failed to agree on releasing crude supplies. Those headlines briefly hit Brent down from around $119/bbl to near $100, but once again, it appears to have been little more than a circus act as world leaders stare directly into what could become an energy shock.
France said the G-7 is not yet prepared to move forward with a coordinated release of SPR in response to Operation Epic Fury, which has unleashed chaos across the Middle East.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the other ministers that the group stands ready to take whatever steps are necessary to stabilize conditions and is closely monitoring developments, including the possible use of the SPR.
“We agreed on following the situation very closely, we are ready to take all necessary measures including using strategic reserves to stabilize the market,” Lescure said after the meeting, quoted by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas said on X that the G-7 stopped short of authorizing an SPR release and instead opted to continue monitoring energy markets. He added that Japan cited an IEA recommendation urging G-7 leaders to consider tapping reserves to contain the oil price spike.
The Financial Times reports:
G-7 finance ministers are poised to release a joint statement saying the countries “stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global energy supply, such as a stockpile release,” according to people familiar with the situation.
A virtual meeting on Monday included the heads of the IEA, IMF, World Bank, and OECD, according to those people.
“We discussed the current conflict in the Middle East, its impact on regional stability, global economic conditions, and financial markets, and the importance of secure trading routes,” the ministers are expected to say in the statement.
How G-7 leaders jawboned energy markets today:
This desperate circus act by G-7 leaders suggests that the energy shock rippling through the system could be historic, especially as an IRGC spokesperson warned of $200/bbl crude prices.
At what price does the G7, in fact, release SPRs?
* * *
Asian and European equities traded lower, while U.S. equity futures fell 1% as Brent and WTI futures traded in triple-digit territory following the weekend escalation in Middle East tensions. The energy shock we have been warning about for the past week, citing top institutional desks from JPMorgan, UBS, Goldman, and others, is now staring G-7 leaders directly in the face as energy market panic erupts.
You know conditions are deteriorating very quickly when the Financial Times reports that G-7 finance ministers are set to hold an 8:30 a.m. New York time call to discuss a possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to combat runaway crude prices, as Brent crude hit $119/bbl overnight. Such a move to dump SPR on global markets shows just how afraid policymakers are that the oil shock could crush consumer sentiment and, in turn, hit economic growth.
There have been five coordinated SPR dumps onto the global market with the International Energy Agency. The last two occurred in 2022, in the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy prices through the roof. However, as we must note, dumping SPRs in 2022 did not work so well, and the market will likely look beyond current flows and focus on overall stockpiles being drained (read: here & here).
The scramble by G-7 leaders comes as Brent crude hit $119/bbl in Asia, up from about $72 before Operation Epic Fury kicked off more than a week ago, now in its second week. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Gulf producers cutting output as storage fills up, the worst-case scenario appears to be unfolding: an energy shock.
To cushion the shock, potentially bridging some of the supply gap of a short-term war (but definitely not a longer term or wider disruption) FT sources said world leaders could release 300 million to 400 million barrels, or about 25% to 30% of the 1.2 billion-barrel reserve.
Given the extreme moves, any announcement is likely to move prices (and indeed is already being somewhat discounted) but the question remain of whether that will actually impact the cost of pump prices in America (which are set to soar to $5 a gallon, however briefly, on a lagged response to WTI and RBOB price surges currently).
As Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky noted:
Such a release would buy time. If the disruption proves temporary, a coordinated SPR release makes sense. If the disruption persists for months, those reserves might arguably be more valuable at higher prices or in a more acute shortage
WTI is down $20 from its overnight highs on the report of the coordinated SPR release…
Late last week, JPMorgan’s top commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva, did the ‘Hormuz Math‘ and warned that production shut-ins were imminent – hence the weekend production cuts by major Gulf states and Brent crude spiking into triple-digit territory.
Additionally, energy economist Anas Alhajji warned UBS analysts last week about SPR limitations:
“The impact of the U.S. SPR is limited. Saudi Arabia is completely out of the picture. All of that spare capacity in OPEC is out of the picture. So what do we do? We are then left relying on demand destruction to curb prices. And because of the panic buying, prices would go above $100 easily in this scenario.”
Even if the conflict in the Middle East ended today, Alhajji explained that returning Gulf oil and gas production to a ‘normal state’ would take two months because of logistical and technical issues. This only implies that an energy shock has begun. Deutsche Bank warned in recent days that this was an “existential threat” to airlines, and next could very well be a shock to consumers. The only question now is whether the shock is big enough to cause a financial blow to countries that are among the largest importers of crude from the Gulf region, such as China and other Asian countries.
END
“Let Them Keep Playing Games”: Iran Warns Of $200 Crude Oil
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 11:05 AM
G-7 finance ministers are holding an emergency meeting on Monday morning to discuss options to cap skyrocketing energy prices, with Brent and WTI trading in triple-digit territory as the Middle East conflict threatens to unleash a global energy shock. As the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies heading into the new week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned of $200-a-barrel oil.
IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfighari said on Monday that the U.S. has begun a new chapter in the conflict by targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.
“If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game,” Zolfighari said in a video message posted by Al Jazeera on X.
Over the weekend, Israeli strikes on major oil facilities around Tehran, combined with production shut-ins by major Gulf producers and IRGC retaliatory attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East, sparked panic in energy markets worldwide, with Brent crude briefly topping $119 per barrel in Asian trading.
On Friday, Goldman analyst Daan Struyven wrote four reasons why oil prices are moving higher:
- Shipping has stopped. We estimate that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are down 90% from normal, curtailing 18 mbpd from the global market (~18% of global oil).
- Pipeline pressures. We estimate only about 25% of the theoretical redirection of oil in the Middle East through pipelines is currently being achieved, partly due to physical disruptions. We estimate only ~0.9 mbpd are incrementally coming to market through Middle East pipeline initiatives.
- No quick shipping solutions. Our conversations highlight that most shippers are in a wait-and-see mode while physical risks in the SoH are high.
- Demand destruction may be necessary. With no supply relief in sight, oil prices may need to go to demand-destruction levels even more quickly than history and simple models focusing on Persian Gulf exports alone suggest.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky commented on the speculation of SPR dumps, indicating:
Such a release would buy time. If the disruption proves temporary, a coordinated SPR release makes sense. If the disruption persists for months, those reserves might arguably be more valuable at higher prices or in a more acute shortage.
Additionally, energy economist Anas Alhajji warned UBS analysts last week about SPR limitations:
“The impact of the U.S. SPR is limited. Saudi Arabia is completely out of the picture. All of that spare capacity in OPEC is out of the picture. So what do we do? We are then left relying on demand destruction to curb”
Related:
What’s evident is that Operation Epic Fury, which initially focused on military, nuclear, missile, and IRGC sites, is now targeting economic high-value assets, with Iran’s Kharg Island now in focus (read).
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CUBA
Cuba Is Negotiating Deal With US, Trump Says
Sunday, Mar 08, 2026 – 02:40 PM
Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,
U.S. President Donald Trump said March 8 that the Cuban government is negotiating a deal with him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Speaking at his “Shield of the Americas” gathering of Latin American leaders in Miami, Florida, Trump said that Cuba is “at the end of the line” due to Venezuela cutting off oil deliveries after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
“As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we’re also looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba,” Trump said. “They have no money. They have no oil. They have a bad philosophy. They have a bad regime that’s been bad for a long time.”
The president said Cuba is currently negotiating with himself, Rubio, and “some others.”
“And I would think a deal would be made very easily with Cuba,” Trump added.
Trump has urged the Cuban government to strike a deal with his administration since early this year, and has increased pressure after Maduro’s capture. Previously, Venezuela was overwhelmingly Cuba’s largest source of oil.
Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez responded to Trump at the time by saying his nation was “ready to defend the Homeland to the last drop of blood.”
“Those who blame the [communist] Revolution for the severe economic shortages we suffer should hold their tongues in shame,” he said on Jan. 11.
By late last month, Trump was floating the possibility of a “friendly takeover of Cuba” by the United States.
“The Cuban government is talking with us,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Feb. 27.
“They’re in a big deal of trouble. We could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba after many, many years. We’ve had a lot of years of dealing with Cuba.”
He also indicated that Rubio was negotiating with Cuban leaders “at a very high level.”
“They have no money, they have no oil, they have no food, and it’s really right now a nation in deep trouble, and they want our help,” Trump said.
The loss of Venezuelan oil and financial support worsened Cuba’s already dire economic crisis that has been gripping the island for nearly a year and a half. Catastrophic fuel shortages have driven frequent blackouts and disrupted transportation.
Large-scale shortages of food and medicine have also impacted the nation’s nearly 11 million residents.
Cuba has been under communist rule since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution. For decades, Havana’s leaders have resisted calls for change from the United States and among its population of exiles who have fled in the years since Castro’s takeover.
But now that the United States is engulfed in a war with Iran that the Trump administration says is largely about kneecapping and replacing Tehran’s theocratic regime, some U.S. lawmakers have questioned whether Cuba will become another target for the U.S. military.
Speculation began weeks before the joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran’s senior leadership.
Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked Rubio during a Jan. 28 Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing if the U.S. secretary of state “would make a public commitment” that the U.S. government would not get involved in regime change in Cuba.
“Oh, no. I think we would like to see the regime there change. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make a change, but we would love to see a change,” Rubio said at the time.
A change in Cuba’s regime “would be of great benefit to the United States,” Rubio added.
He referred to the Helms–Burton Act of 1996, which requires a democratic transition in Cuba before a U.S. president can normalize relations with the island.
“It was codified in law, and it requires regime change in order for us to lift the embargo,” Rubio said.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1552 DOWN 0.0066
USA/ YEN 158.46 UP 0.877 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3343 DOWN 0.0061 OR 61 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3557 DOWN 0.0004 CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS//(DESPITE TRUMP’S TARIFFS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 27.59 PTS OR 0.67%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 348.83 PTS OR OR 1.35%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.20%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 248.83 PTS OR 1.35%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.59 PTS OR 0.67%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.20 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2917.35 PTS OR 5.24%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 5102.80
silver:$83.71
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.08
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 77.23 ROUBLE// UP 77 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7440 UP 12 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.373 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.404 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 2.953 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 99.20 UP 11 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.325% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.185% UP 2 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.453 UP 6 BASIS PTS//DIASTER
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3910 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.677 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8854 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1568 DOWN 0.0050 OR 50 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.33 UP 0.770 OR YEN IS DOWN 33 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7360 UP 11 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.373 UP 7 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar up 43 BASIS pts to 1.3598
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN 6.9173 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.9174
TURKISH LIRA: 44.09 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.161.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.777 DOWN 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.584 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 5092.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 84.15
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 35.23 PTS OR 0.34%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 181.66 OR 0.77%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 78.13 PTS OR 0.98%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 127.30 PTS OR 0.29%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 456.29 PTS OR 1.02%
WTI Oil price 100.60 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 102.11 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.44 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 44 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.458 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.009 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1628 UP 0.0011 OR 11 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3439 UP 0.0037 OR 37 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6680 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.332UP 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.189 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.457 UP 4 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.70 UP 0.112 OR YEN DOWN 11 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3581 DOWN 0.000 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 0 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.35
Brent OIL: 89.79
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.091
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 4 PTS to 4.713%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.546 DOWN 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.457 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.914 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.78 DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.05 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.47 DOWN AND 47/100 roubles //
GOLD $5133.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 86.17 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 239.25 OR 0.50%
NASDAQ 100 UP 324.23 PTS OR 1.32%
VOLATILITY INDEX 25.46 DOWN 4.03 PTS OR 13.67%
GLD: $ 472.53 DOWN 0.98 PTS OR 0.21%
SLV/ $78.22 UP 2.28 PTS OR OR 3.00 %
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 67.44 PTS OR 0.20%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Hammer In Stocks, Shooting Star In Oil
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
interesting!!
US Home Relistings Hit Record High As Spring Buying Season Kicks Off, And One-Third Are Cheaper
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Around 45,000 homes that were delisted in 2025 were back on the market in January – marking the highest relisting numbers since 2016 when Redfin began tracking.
Delistings soared in 2025 after sellers began to outnumber buyers, and decided to take their homes off the market to take another bite at the apple this spring. Overall delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December, while relistings this year represented 3.6% of all homes on the market.
“Many sellers who pulled their homes off the market last year are relisting now in hopes of capitalizing on spring homebuying season,” Redfin Austin, Texas, agent Andrew Vallejo said in the report.
The company’s senior economist, Asad Khan noted that while the spring is usually good when it comes to potential buyers, they may still be able to negotiate.
“Some sellers will be more flexible on price when they relist since they’ve already been burned once,” said Asad, adding “Buyers shouldn’t be shy about asking for concessions. Even if the list price is high on paper, the seller may be open to negotiating.”
Meanwhile, one-third of the homes reslisted in January came back on market at a reduced price.
“If you delisted your home last year after cutting the price from $550,000 to $525,000, don’t try to relist it now at $550,000,”Redfin Milwaukee, Wisconsin, agent W.J. Eulberg cautioned in the report.
“Buyers are savvy. They know how long your home has been on the market: how many times it has been delisted and relisted, and your original asking price.”
As the Epoch Times notes further, with some of the priciest real estate in the country, it’s no surprise that Northern California’s Bay Area had the highest share of relistings. In San Jose, where the median single-family home price held at $1.26 in January, 257 delisted homes were back on the market in January. That number equates to 12.5 percent of homes on the market—the highest share among America’s 50 top U.S. metros.
San Francisco’s relisting market was at 11.4 percent, and Oakland’s at 10.2 percent. Seattle, Washington, and Denver, Colorado, listings accounted for 8.3 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively, of their total housing markets.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, held the lowest share of relistings among the top metropolitan areas at just 132 homes, representing 1.7 percent of all the homes on the market there.
In a separate report on the same day, Redfin said that despite lower mortgage rates and monthly housing payments, potential homebuyers are still staying on the sidelines due to high prices and economic uncertainty.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.98 percent last week—the lowest level in more than three years. It ticked up slightly to 6 percent this week but remains well below the 6.76 percent reported a year earlier.
The median monthly housing payment was down by 2.8 percent year over year to $2,591 during the four-week period ending March 1, according to the Redfin report.
Meanwhile, the median home price moved slightly upward by 1 percent year over year, to $381,750.
Redfin’s head of economics Chen Zhao said that the evolving conflict in Iran could also affect homebuying sentiment.
“The war could make some would-be buyers think twice, much in the same way economic and global uncertainty have been turning off buyers for the last year, and it’s likely to cause short-term volatility in mortgage rates,” she said in the report.
A March 5 report from Realtor.com indicates the market continued to rebalance in February, with inventory growing year over year for a twnety-eighth consecutive month.
“Inventory has improved for more than two years, but the momentum has faltered in recent months,” Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said in the report.
“As we move toward the spring buying season with mortgage rates near three and a half year lows, a key question is whether this thaw spurs more buyers or more sellers.”
Hale noted that supply gains have been concentrated in the South and West, particularly among homes priced under $500,000. While the Northeast and Midwest have seen some growth, they are still lagging behind the other regions.
As of February, active listings climbed by 7.9 percent year over year, reaching 914,860 homes across the nation for sale. A little more than 7 percent of those listings resulted in contract cancellations—down slightly from the same time in 2025.
An analysis of the country’s 50 largest markets showed sharp increases in inventory in Seattle, with a 38.5 percent hike, as well as Louisville, Kentucky, 27.3 percent higher, and San Jose, with nearly 25 percent more homes on the market.
On the other side, Hartford, Connecticut, experienced the deepest drop in inventory at over 82 percent, as well as Providence, Rhode Island, at 61.1 percent.
Overall, homes spent a median of 70 days on the market in February, four days longer than a year earlier.
Hale said that as the spring market approaches, the market is likely to remain in transition. More homes will be available, but a full recovery will take time.
END
Oil Plummets As Trump Says Iran War ‘Very Far Ahead Of Schedule’ & So Could Be Over Soon
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 03:45 PM
Summary:
- Trump tells CBS “the war could be over soon.” Oil prices drop on the headline.
- Trump calls choice of new supreme leader ‘a big mistake’
- Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.
- Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran’s oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.
- Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son
- Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
- Timeline to end Iran war? Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.
- Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.
- Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”
- G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.
- Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
- Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
- Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
- Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
- Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”
- CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
* * *
Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is “very far ahead of schedule” and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed… is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here’s what Trump told CBS by phone:
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”
Oil rapidly dropped… down 30% from overnight highs:
Offramp brewing? Notice below there’s now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran’s ability to project power via proxy forces.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report March 9, 2025 Issue 7695 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump on Friday: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” Axios: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Arab foreign ministers in a series of phone calls Thursday that the war is expected to last several more weeks… Rubio said the current military focus is on Iran’s missile launchers, stockpiles and factories. He told the ministers the U.S. goal is not regime change — while simultaneously making clear Washington wants different people running the country, the sources said… (Huh?) https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/trump-iran-war-unconditional-surrender Trump to Reuters: “I don’t have any concern about it. They’ll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.” Kuwait cut production at some oil fields, signaling a storage crisis and a new risk for the oil market. Brent oil hit $94.64; April WTI oil hit 62.61 (+14.2%); April gasoline hit 276.30, +9.21 cents. The front-month gasoline future is up $1.0974 (+65.9%) since January 5, 2026 low of 166.56. @Polymarket: Oil prices surged 34.5% this week, the largest weekly price jump in history. February NFP is a shocking loss of 92k jobs; +55k was consensus; +65k was the Whisper Number. The 2-month NFP Revision was -69k; Private Payrolls fell 86k: +60k was consensus. Wages 0.4% m/m & 3.8% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 3.7% y/y were expected. Mfg. -112k, -2k expected. Once again, Team Trump inflated NFP by increasing the seasonal adjustment: From +1.153m in February 2025 to +1.180m for February 2026 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm Birth/Death Model +90k for February 2026 vs 136k for February 2025. (-46k; +37k NFP Seasonal adj) https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm @fcastofthemonth: The birth-death model added -46k fewer jobs to the NSA tally this Feb vs last Feb, but it also added +44k to Jan26 vs Jan25. It just shifted around job growth in the first 2 months. Blaming B/D for the miss on payrolls suggests it might retrace, but that seems unlikely. Construction -11k, Leisure & Hospitality -27k, Private Education & Healthcare -34k; Government -6k with Federal Ex-Postal Workers -15.1; Information -11k The Unemployment Rate rose 0.1 to 4.4%; 4.3% was expected and prior. The Labor Participation Rate fell to 62%; 622.5% was expected; prior revised to 62.1% from 62.5%. ‘Employed’ -185k; ‘Unemployed’ +203k; Not in Labor Force +72k; Civilian Labor Force +18k https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Data shows foreign born workers have lost 519,000 jobs over the last year, while native born workers have gained 128k jobs. Additionally, federal government employment decreased by 10K in February, and is down by 330K, or 11%, since reaching a peak in October 2024… Healthcare employment dropped by 28,000 in February after a huge increase in January (+77,000). Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February (primarily due to strike activity). Manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs in February. Manufacturing down 98,000 jobs since Feb 2025. (No boost from tariffs) Jan Retail Sales -0.2% m/m -0.3% exp; Ex-Autos 0.0% as expected, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; 0.2% exp. @wallstengine: Deutsche warns the spike in the jet fuel crack spread is becoming an “existential threat” to U.S. airlines. The note says that without near-term relief, airlines could be forced to ground 1000s of aircraft, and some of the industry’s weakest carriers may have to halt operations. Airline stocks cratered on Friday, which generated a sharp declined in the DJTA. FT Exclusive: BlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify. https://ft.trib.al/xsSjF2C (Banks got hammered) ESHs opened modestly lower on Thursday nigher but quickly rallied to a modest gain. They then traded in a tight range until they broke down after 4:02 ET. ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 6715.75 at 9:59 ET. ESHs rebounded to 6778.00 at 10:37 ET and then traded in a 39-handle range until they broke lower at 15:28 ET. After falling to 6729.25 at 15:35 ET, the illegal late manipulation quickly aborted. Positive aspects of previous session The stock carnage could have been worse. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined on cascading airline stocks. The Nas 100 got hammered. The S&P 500 closed (6740.02) below the 6800 lower trading band. Banks stocks declined sharply on credit concerns. USMs declined modestly even with the stock carnage and ugly Feb NFP. Gasoline and oil soared, again; precious metals rallied sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Do you think Team Trump will allow stocks to crater while it is at war with Iran? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6741.67 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6773.42; 6711.56 Moscow providing Tehran intelligence to target American forces https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-889095 @EYakoby: The Lebanese justice minister Adel Nassar has announced that he will request the arrest of Hezbollah’s secretary general Naim Qassem. This is huge! Fox contributor @PaulDMauro: Translation: “We assess that the Iranian mullahs are done for good.” @Polymarket: Anthropic CEO says Claude may or may not have gained consciousness, as the model has begun showing symptoms of anxiety. @AutismCapital: The AI had one job and one job alone: be a perfect, rational, objective decision-making machine that surpassed the emotional limitations of humans. Now we see that the programmers programmed in their own beta soy boy anxiety into the AI to make it “human.” On Saturday, Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure (cannot fulfill due to events) on all oil deliveries. Plus, Israel reportedly struck 30 Iranian oil storage tanks and a refinery. @zerohedge: *SCHUMER: I DEMAND TRUMP RELEASE OIL FROM SPR – the one Biden drained? – @yieldsearcher: This is the same Schumer that blocked Trump’s attempt to fill the SPR during the height of COVID with oil px in the negatives. Trump on Saturday: “The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer – But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff says Iran claimed it had enough enriched uranium to make 11 nuclear bombs https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-steve-witkoff-iran-enriched-uranium-11-nuclear-bombs/ @chigrl: 1. The delivery squeeze at Cushing. April WTI expires March 20, which is 12 days away. Anybody short April WTI who doesn’t want to deliver physical oil has to buy it back before then. Anybody long who wants to take delivery needs to be ready to accept 1,000 barrels per contract at Cushing… In this market, physical barrels at Cushing are becoming scarce relative to demand because Gulf Coast refiners who normally supplement Cushing connected supply with waterborne imports (which are largely Brent priced, much of which transits Hormuz) have lost that supplementary supply… 2. The export arb is breaking. The US exports roughly 4 million bpd of crude. That export flow exists because WTI normally trades at a discount to Brent, so traders buy cheap WTI, pipe it to the Gulf Coast, load it onto tankers, and sell it into the global Brent priced market. When WTI approaches or exceeds Brent, that arb dies. 3. Physical versus financial settlement. This is the part nobody is saying out loud. WTI delivers real oil. Brent settles cash. When the market is genuinely afraid that physical supply is being destroyed, the contract that gives you actual barrels in a pipeline connected storage facility in Oklahoma is worth more than the contract that gives you a check based on a price assessment of North Sea crude that you still have to go find and transport. Cash settlement is a claim on nothing. Physical delivery is a claim on oil. In a supply crisis, that distinction reprices… https://x.com/chigrl/status/2030772261259460916 Today – Because the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend with US/IDF strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure and Iran doing the same to other Gulf States, Sunday night trading is panicky. April WTI Oil hit 111.24 (+22.4%); April Gasoline hit 313.42 (+14.1%). Traders want play for the Monday Rally; and bulls want to force the S&P 500 Index back above the key 6800. However, the profound consequences of a ‘Big One’ in the Middle East are foment acute fear. S&P 500 Index – A very ominous technical condition ESHs are -125.50; NQHs are -540.25; USHs are -22/32; oil, and precious are down sharply at 20:26 ET. Fed in blackout period ahead of March 18 Communique S&P Index 50-day MA: 6902; 100-day MA: 6838; 150-day MA: 6735; 200-day MA: 6583 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,117;100-day MA: 48,199; 150-day MA: 47,303; 200-day MA: 46,332 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6740.02 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6458.06 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6899.46 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6790.25 triggers a buy signal Epstein prison guard googled him minutes before body found — and made mysterious deposit before pedophile’s suicide: DOJ – One of Jeffrey Epstein’s prison guards googled the sex predator minutes before he was found dead — and also made a mysterious $5,000 cash deposit 10 days before the predator’s jail-cell suicide, new Department of Justice documents reveal. Tova Noel was one of the two Metropolitan Correctional Center workers accused of falsifying records to say they checked on Epstein throughout the night before his Aug. 10, 2019, suicide. The guards were fired but criminal charges against both were later dropped… Meanwhile, Chase Bank flagged cash deposits in Noel’s bank account in a “suspicious activity report” to the FBI in November 2019, another file from the DOJ revealed. A total of 12 deposits began in April 2018, the bank said, and culminated in the largest deposit, for $5,000, on July 30, 2019, the records showed… https://nypost.com/2026/03/07/us-news/prison-guard-googled-jeffrey-epstein-minutes-before-his-body-was-found-and-deposited-thousands-days-before-pedophiles-suicide-doj/ Guilty: Man charged in Trump assassination plot convicted in NYC after admitting to Iranian handler – The Pakistani national charged with attempting to organize an assassination plot against now-President Donald Trump on behalf of Iranian intelligence has been found guilty of murder-for-hire and terrorism charges following a jury trial in Brooklyn… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/guilty-man-charged-trump-assassination-plot-convicted-nyc-after-admitting @thevivafrei: “Trump frustrates me on this. (Trump): ‘We got to have more programs to get moms back to work.’ I’m like WHY?… He’s a liberal and he [Trump] loves hiring women. It’s probably his biggest Achilles heel… If he would stop hiring women, it would get rid of a lot of his problems!” – Rachel Wilson (Author “Occult Feminism: The Secret History of Women’s Liberation”) on @joerogan https://x.com/thevivafrei/status/2029646234172920048 Trump’s problem is NOT hiring women; it’s hiring women based on looks instead of acumen. @DavidJHarrisJr: Video of the Democratic mayor of San Francisco is going viral after he calmly walked away while his security detail was being attacked. Mayor Daniel Lurie is seen watching his security officer struggle with a man, then turning and walking away as the officer is slammed to the ground, hits his head on the pavement, and is left bleeding. https://x.com/DavidJHarrisJr/status/2029955201520574751 Kamala Harris, Barack Obama use Jesse Jackson funeral to unload on Trump https://trib.al/yU2zvmh @jammles9: Jesse Jackson told his family he wanted one simple thing at his funeral: leave politics out of it and come together in respect. “Do not bring your politics out of respect to Reverand Jesse Jackson to these Homegoing services… These services are welcome all. Democrats, Republicans, liberals, and conservatives, ring wing, left wing… dad would have wanted us to… move together…” Then Barack Obama got up and turned the moment into a divisive political speech. https://x.com/jammles9/status/2030041142528541062 @WallStreetMav: Obama whips out his MLK impersonation to pander to his majority black audience and attack Trump at Jesse Jackson’s funeral. Do politicians think people can’t see through this? (Unseemly and narcissistic behavior – and at funeral! PS – Jesse detested Obama!) https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/2030025572307382353 @EricLDaugh: Hussein Obama is now using Rev. Jesse Jackson’s funeral to ATTACK MAGA as “bigots” and “bullies.” “That some Americans count more than others, and some don’t count at all!” Hussein is the most divisive president in modern history. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2030016263171264890 @RyanAFournier: Barrack Hussein Obama is actually using Rev. Jesse Jackson’s funeral as a political stunt to ATTACK the MAGA movement as “bigots” and “bullies!” “That some Americans count more than others, and some don’t count at all!” Barack Hussein Obama is hands down the most DIVISIVE president in modern history. He just cannot stop trying to tear this country apart. Disgusting! https://x.com/RyanAFournier/status/2030025705094861058 @WesternLensman: Obama, a few weeks ago: The other side does the angry, divisive, us/them stuff. We’re about coming together. Obama, today: Launches angry, divisive attack on his political opponents at a funeral service. @EricLDaugh: Joe Biden tells predominantly black crowd at Jesse Jackson’s funeral, “I’m a HELL of a lot smarter than most of you!” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2030026149699428409 @disclosetv: Biden: “We’re in a tough spot, folks. We’ve got an administration, that doesn’t share any of the values that we have—and I don’t think I’m exaggerating a little bit.” (Abject politicking at a funeral!) https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2030016889292816677 @ThePatriotOasis: Joe Biden tries to relate to a majority black crowd at the Funeral of Rev. Jesse Jackson. “By the way, you know the continent of Africa is going to be the largest continent in the world in terms of population by the year 2050.” https://x.com/ThePatriotOasis/status/2030016173866164643 Reverend Jordan Wells @WellsJorda89710: Rev. Jesse Jackson’s funeral turned into the most hateful, divisive political rally I’ve ever witnessed. Obama, Biden, Kamala, Sharpton—they hijacked his memory to bash Trump & MAGA instead of honoring a civil rights giant. Utterly disrespectful. RIP Rev. Jackson—you deserved better. @officer_Lew: Jesse Jackson Jr. just DROPPED this at his father’s memorial: “I listened to three United States presidents who did not know Jesse Jackson.” He added: His father had a “tense relationship with the political order” because of the demands of justice—not race or party. Yet they politicized it anyway. Talking about Obama, Biden, and Clinton turning the service into a political rally. Dad deserved better. https://x.com/officer_Lew/status/2030642665646068193 W Bush Press Sec @AriFleischer: If you want to know why Donald Trump was elected, watch Barack Obama’s attack speech yesterday at Jesse Jackson’s funeral. As he did throughout his presidency, he created a straw man to describe Republicans as bigots who force the American people to “turn on each other”. He said similar crap when he was President and the GOP was the party of Bush, McCain and Romney. It’s the language of bitterness and resentment that makes good people recoil to be described that way. Obama is one of the most divisive figures in US history, except he is celebrated by the MSM because they are partisans. They take sides and loved and protected Obama. It’s no wonder a tough, no BS, bull in the China shop emerged. That person was a fed-up Trump, who broke the MSM by not caring what they thought. He showed Rs they could punch back against the Ds and win. His rise coincided with the welcome birth, at long last, of conservative media which gave voice to the voiceless who had been forced to consume the prejudices of the MSM. I can’t stand Obama. He was weak, patronizing, condescending and he put America last. But having listened to him yesterday, I reminded the only good thing he did was help elect President Trump. Michelle Obama raises eyebrows again by skipping Jesse Jackson’s memorial service The former first lady’s apparent absence from the Jackson funeral is the latest in a string of high-profile ceremonies she has missed, including Trump’s inauguration and former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral, both of which took place last year… https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/michelle-obama-jesse-jackson-funeral-b2933738.html @VigilantFox: Adam Schiff falls right into Bill Maher’s trap as he criticizes a statement he thought was from Trump but was actually from Obama. MAHER: “This statement from the administration: ‘The president had the constitutional authority to direct the use of military force because he could reasonably determine that such use of force was in the national interest.’ That’s too vague for you?” SCHIFF: “Totally vague.” MAHER: “Okay. Because that’s from Obama about Libya.” Brutal setup. Watch Adam Schiff try to dig himself out of this one. https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/2030150341178634646 @DefiantLs: Chuck Schumer in 1996: “The number one reason people come to the US illegally is to defraud systems like Social Security and I want to stop it.” https://x.com/DefiantLs/status/2030289868295934072 Mayor Zohran Mamdani claimed his wife Rama Duwaji isn’t a public figure after facing uproar for her liking social media posts celebrating Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack. https://trib.al/b6uVcUj Self-radicalized ISIS protesters used explosive called ‘Mother of Satan’ inside bombs thrown at Gracie Mansion protest: sources https://trib.al/dZMF08Y @BarronTNews_: Police say the IED used in the NYC attack was packed with TATP, the same highly volatile explosive used in multiple terrorist attacks worldwide. The suspect reportedly targeted anti-Islam protestors while shouting “Nazi.” Calling someone a “Nazi” has become the left’s favorite trick. First smear your opponent, then pretend any violence against them is justified. An explosive device was thrown in the middle of New York at people exercising free speech. Americans are asking why the media rushes to label everything “far-right,” but suddenly goes quiet when the attacker doesn’t fit the narrative. NY Post: Today’s cover: 6 arrested after homemade explosive devices at Gracie Mansion protest send people running for cover https://trib.al/zbfXAzM Fox’s @BillMelugin_: I’m told by federal law enforcement sources that NY City IED suspect EMIR BALAT’s parents are both from Turkey & were naturalized into US citizens in 2017, while IBRAHIM KAYUMI’s parents are both from Afghanistan. Mom naturalized in 2009, dad naturalized in 2004. @MrAndyNgo: Two Muslims believed to have been supporters of ISIS were arrested for throwing an IED at an anti-Islam protest outside the Gracie Mansion. Mayor Mamdani has refused to acknowledge the suspects’ ideology while calling the protesters “white supremacists.” Because the Islamic and 3rd World vote is critical for NY Dems, several NY Dem pols blamed the failed IED terroristic on the protestors, labeling them ‘white supremacist.’ Mayor Mamdani et al refrained from mentioning the 6 arrested terrorists or their affiliation. @nicksortor: Ugandan Muslim NYC mayor starts off his press statement about Muslims attempting to LITERALLY BOMB anti-Islam protestors in NYC by condemning “WHITE SUPREMACY” Failed Islamic bombing suspects Amir Balat and Ibrahim Nikk are now in FEDERAL DOJ CUSTODY after attempting to blow up anti-Islam protestors in NYC. Corrupt Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg will NO LONGER be able to free them. @BarronTNews_: Mayor Mamdani is facing major backlash after refusing to mention the attacker’s apparent motive when a suspect reportedly shouted “Allahu Akbar” and threw a homemade explosive device at anti-Islam protesters. Instead of addressing what happened directly, Mamdani focused his remarks on condemning “white supremacy” and “racism,” which many critics say completely ignored the nature of the attack itself. People are asking a simple question tonight: why avoid the obvious details when discussing an act of violence against protesters?… @JCAndersonNYC: Historically, when someone yelled “Allahu Akbar” before throwing a bomb in NYC, Ramzi Kassem would rush in with free legal counsel and claim the suspect was being “unfairly targeted by government agencies.” Now he is Zohran’s top advisor. Let that sink in. Councilwoman Vickie Paladino @VickieforNYC: The media — and Democrat officials — are pretending nothing happened yesterday other than an ‘islamophobic’ demonstration ‘targeting’ the mayor, in which ‘devices’ were ‘found’ outside Gracie Mansion. In fact, conservative demonstrators had what were apparently lit nail bombs thrown at them by leftist/islamic terrorists shouting ‘allah akbar’. The level of moral bankruptcy necessary to cover for these terrorists is astounding, even for the modern Democrat party… The message is clear to terrorists, rioters, anarchists, and anyone else who seeks to sow chaos and harm in our city — do whatever you want, the media and Democrats have your back. We are in a very bad place here indeed. NY pol @bradlander: Vile displays of Islamophobia will never be tolerated in our city. NY State Sen @LizKrueger: New York is no place for anti-Muslim hate or any other kind of prejudice. We don’t need out-of-state provocateurs sowing fear, division, and violence in our city. Fox’s @PaulDMauro: I feel compelled to remind everyone: despite the video of these two perps throwing live devices at counter-protestors yesterday, with nails protruding, the Manhattan Borough President Brad Hoylman-Sigal immediately blamed the event on “white supremacy.” He then deleted the post. Now ask yourself why our blue cities are all circling the drain. @AriFleischer: Take this in and don’t underestimate what’s going on. An IED was used in NYC against people who protested against Mamdani. An IED. On the streets in America. The left wing has a violence problem. It’s time for everyone to recognize it, confront it, arrest those who engage in it, deport them and/or put them in prison for a very long time… @EricLDaugh: Pathetic sight in NYC as leftist women SCREAM at the top of their lungs in a berserk show of “letting their rage out.” The scream comes after “feminists” camped out at Trump Tower. Bring back the asylums. This is PSYCHOTIC! https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2030730505469968751 UFO expert (Rt. Gen William Neil McCasland, USAF) privy to ‘most sensitive secrets’ goes missing in New Mexico: ‘Grave national security crisis’ https://trib.al/fC5EpkG @No3sports: Former Alabama running back Trent Richardson weighed in on Nick Saban’s stance against paying players. “Honestly, I don’t get why he’s even commenting on it, they gave me and my family $75,000 just to commit, plus $10,000 a month to stay at Alabama.” @unclelukereal1: Thank you Trent Richardson for exposing the truth. When Nick Saban and the SEC good-old-boys talk about “fixing” NIL, what they really mean is going back to the days when players allegedly got paid quietly and the NCAA was used to snitch on anyone outside their circle. The old system is what they want back. @mattgaetz: Easy to resolve. Have Congress put Saban under oath and ask if he ever oversaw the payment of players when it was forbidden. Ex-GOP Rep and WH CoS @MarkMeadows: While hearing arguments regarding USAGM, Judge Lamberth FELL ASLEEP multiple times. Americans deserve better from their judges. @julie_kelly2: The last time I was in Judge Lamberth’s courtroom, he berated a J6er for refusing to take a plea deal because he was “guilty” and the jury would find him so. (Which of course happened.) He also needed help out of his chair and used a walker to get to his chambers. J6ers routinely complained that he fell asleep during court proceedings and trials. He refuses to retire at 83 despite poor health (physically and mentally) so he instead can spend his remaining days on Earth not with his family and making peace with God but to retaliate against a president he loathes. Several perennial NCAA football and basketball powerhouses are no longer special. Are NIL payments leveling the playing field? We’re old enough to remember when wise guys quipped that in the SEC the saying goes, “if you’re not cheating; you aren’t trying?” | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Dem Leaders Can’t Explain Past Support For Unilateral Presidential War Powers
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 09:45 AM
In Rage and the Republic, I quote former Rep. Jaamal Bowman (D., N.Y.) as capturing the essence of an age of rage when a colleague asked him to stop yelling outside of the House floor. Bowman responded, “I was screaming before you interrupted me.”
Bowman’s statement came to mind this week when Democratic members were miffed when they were interrupted in tirades over war powers with questions about their prior support for unilateral attacks by Democratic presidents. Leaders like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Cal.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D., Cal.) struggled to explain their prior support for President Barack Obama in doing precisely that in Libya with embarrassing results.
The greatest face plant may have been Schiff’s appearance on “Real Time” with host Bill Maher.
After Schiff denounced any attack without prior congressional approval, Maher read “This statement from the administration: ‘The president had the constitutional authority to direct the use of military force because he could reasonably determine that such use of force was in the national interest.’”
He then asked Schiff, “That’s too vague for you?”
Schiff responded, “Totally vague…”
Mayer than dropped the H bomb: “Okay. Because that’s from Obama about Libya.”
The moment laid bare the towering hypocrisy of democrats who continued to support Obama after he attacked Libya without any suggested imminent threat to the United States and an open strategy of regime change.
I represented members of Congress opposing that war over the absence of a declaration of war; most of the senior Democrats today refused to join that litigation.
Pelosi is especially hypocritical on the issue.
She expressly declared that Obama did not need congressional authorization to launch unilateral attacks on Libya seeking regime change. She stated unequivocally that ”I’m satisfied that the president has the authority to go ahead. I say that as one very protective of Congressional prerogative and consultation all along the way.”
Reporters then followed up and pressed her if she really believed that a president could not only launch an unprovoked war but could also continue combat operations without congressional approval. Pelosi answered “yes.”
This week, she made a ham-fisted effort to spin the contradiction. She told the media that the Iran and Libyan wars are “two completely different things. They’re not at all alike.”
Pelosi added, “What Obama did was limited military force. This is beyond that. It was limited military force.” In signature fashion, she then struck out at pesky reporters asking about her past position: “Do your homework. Read the law. We have lost people in war already… I just think if you read the law, you will see the difference.”
While not challenged on the spin, it is historically and legally nonsensical.
The Libyan War was not limited. The Obama Administration attacked the capital city of a country that was posing no imminent threat to the United States. It also took out columns of Libyan military units. It did so with the overt strategy of producing regime change. Figures like then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton supported the action, which led to years of violence and instability in the country.
More importantly, it is immaterial how the two major operations stack up. The question is whether a president can launch large-scale military operations against another country based on their inherent Article II powers. Both Obama and Trump maintained that they could do so and we lost the challenge to the Libyan War.
Moreover, while there are good-faith objections to the need for the attack, presidents have successfully claimed the right to initiate combat operations without congressional authorization. That has boxed in Congress since the Jefferson administration.
Even though both Democratic and Republican presidents have questioned the constitutionality of the War Powers Act, Trump has actually complied with the requirements to notify and consult with Congress. The law requires presidents to inform Congress within 48 hours if U.S. forces are introduced into hostilities and requires congressional authorization for engagements that last more than 60 days.
Moreover, both houses have now voted and rejected any limits on Trump’s authority to prosecute this war.
They are, of course, not alone in this hypocrisy.
In 2011, Sen. Richard Blumenthal praised Obama’s unilateral attack on Libya as a “prudent, decisive action.” This year, he denounced Trump’s attack on Iran as a “unilateral action without accountability…engaging in a war of choice that rejects opportunities for diplomacy.”
These glaring contradictions mean little today in our post-truth political environment. These politicians know that their base does not care as long as they oppose Trump. The obvious misrepresentation of their positions in the past would ordinarily be viewed as raw contempt for the intelligence of the voters. However, they know their base and the license of rage. They also know that the media will not press particularly hard on their flip-flop.
It is that rage that is giving Democrats the courage to vote virtually unanimously to end all combat operations in the midst of an existential battle over Iran. It is the same assurance that is evident in continuing the government shutdown by denying funding to the Department of Homeland Security.
The vote not to fund Homeland Security during a fight with the leading state sponsor of terrorism may stand as the single most reckless, irresponsible vote since Congress authorized the payment of “tribute” to the Barbary Pirates.
The important thing is that, now that these members simply denied that there is any contradiction with their positions from prior Democratic Administrations, they can now avoid further interruptions in this rage rave.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”
END
FIGURES!!
SURE LOOKS LIKE A MASSIVE FRAUD HERE
New York’s Medicaid Program Under Federal Investigation For Alleged Fraud
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 11:25 AM
Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Dr. Mehmet Oz launched a federal investigation into New York’s Medicaid program on March 3, citing the unusual spending trend in the state.
“Heart surgeons are trained to look at the numbers. When something doesn’t add up, you don’t ignore it; you investigate,” Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and a former heart surgeon, said in a video posted on X.
“Right now, the numbers coming out of New York’s Medicaid program don’t add up,” he said.
New York far outspends other states on its Medicaid program, both on a statewide and per beneficiary basis, according to Oz’s letter to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Numbers
New York’s Medicaid program spends more than $90 billion a year, the second-highest total in the nation, Oz said. That’s roughly 10 percent of the nation’s $900 billion in Medicaid spending for 2024.
New York’s average spending on each beneficiary is more than $12,500, which is 36 percent higher than the national average. The state’s per-resident spending is the highest in the country, nearly 80 percent higher than the national average.
As of January, about one-third of New Yorkers—6.7 million individuals—have enrolled in Medicaid.
That is nearly 14 percentage points higher than the national average of 20 percent Medicaid enrollment, according to November data from the federal government.
“That alone demands scrutiny, but it gets worse,” Oz said in the video.
In addition to New York’s Medicaid enrollment size, Oz cited the workforce delivering long-term care, particularly home-based personal care services, as another driver of New York’s high Medicaid spending.
Between 2023 and 2024, 38 percent of job growth in New York was from the home health and personal care aide category.
“Now, New York has turned this [Medicaid] program to help our most vulnerable into a massive jobs program reimbursed by federal taxpayers,” Oz said.
Personal care services include daily living assistance such as eating, bathing, and dressing. Patients need such services due to aging, chronic illness, or disability.
From 2023 through mid-2025, New York state provided personal care services for nearly 75 percent of its Medicaid enrollees at a cost of $45 billion.
In fiscal year 2024, the state’s Medicaid spending on personal care services was $18.5 billion, nearly 70 percent more than other states’ combined spending on this item, according to The Epoch Times’ analysis of open data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
“That level of utilization is unheard of,” said Oz.
New York state allowed problems such as being “easily distracted” to qualify for a personal care system, making personal care services the number one occupation in the state, Oz said.
Demand for Documentation
He said officials must send documents on how they handle fraud, waste, and abuse, or their federal payments will be put on hold.
“We ask hard questions; we expect an honest answer,” Oz said.
On March 4, Gov. Hochul said the Trump administration was targeting New York for political reasons. She added that she would “show them the facts” to prove them wrong and promised to help fight any actual fraud, according to The Associated Press.
The federal government temporarily deferred $259 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota over alleged fraud on Feb. 25.
Oz said the money would be released after Minnesota proposes and acts on a “comprehensive corrective action plan to solve the problem.”
Minnesota sued the federal government on March 2 to stop it from withholding funding. The state warned that freezing these funds could force cuts to medical care for low-income residents.
END
NEW YORK CITY
get a load of this: a muslim sympathizer throw IED into Mamdani’s home (Gracie Mansion)
(zerohedge)
Suspects Linked to IED At Gracie Mansion Made Pro-ISIS Statements In Custody
Monday, Mar 09, 2026 – 01:05 PM
When “suspicious devices” turned up outside Gracie Mansion on Saturday during dueling protests, the media quickly sought to gaslight the public about what really happened.
“Two people in custody after ‘suspicious devices’ ignited outside NYC mayor’s official residence,” NBC New York reported.
However, despite the narrative that was initially pushed by the media, the suspect who allegedly lit and threw the two improvised explosive devices near Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s official residence was actually a Muslim counter-protester.
And by Monday morning, federal authorities were calling it ISIS-inspired terrorism.
NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch stood at a press conference alongside Mamdani and confirmed that suspects Amir Balat, 18, and Ibrahim Kayumi, 19, were arrested on Saturday and remained in custody. Both men were being prosecuted in federal court in Manhattan. Kayumi is a rich kid whose family came from Afghanistan.
Both reportedly made pro-ISIS statements while in custody. Federal agents have already executed search warrants in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where the two men lived, and at a related address in New Jersey.
Investigators are also reviewing the suspects’ travel history, including trips to Turkey and locations described as potential terror training grounds.
“The NYPD Bomb Squad has conducted a preliminary analysis of a device that was ignited and deployed at a protest yesterday and has determined that it is not a hoax device or a smoke bomb. It is, in fact, an improvised explosive device that could have caused serious injury or death,” Tisch said in a post following the incident. NYPD sources added that the devices were packed with nuts, bolts, and screws, stuffed inside taped canisters fitted with fuses and filled with a chemical substance. The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force responded alongside local authorities.
According to The New York Times, Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said the explosive device contained TATP—short for triacetone triperoxide—a white, crystalline explosive that can be made from commonly available precursor materials. The compound has been linked to ISIS in past terrorist plots, including the November 2015 Paris attacks.
Mamdani issued a statement Saturday that carefully avoided naming the actual suspects or their apparent motivation. He opened his statement by condemning the rally organized by conservative activist Jake Lang, describing it as “rooted in bigotry and racism,” then pivoted directly to the explosive devices without making it clear that neither Lang or his group was not responsible for the IED. “What followed was even more disturbing. Violence at a protest is never acceptable. The attempt to use an explosive device and hurt others is not only criminal, it is reprehensible and the antithesis of who we are,” his statement read.
The sequencing was deliberate. Lang’s name was mentioned, then the devices were mentioned immediately after. He said nothing about ISIS. HE said nothing about how the devices were used against Lang and his group. It said nothing about the counter-protesters. The statement weaponized implication in a way that no careful reader could miss, and the press coverage that followed largely amplified it. The initial reporting on “suspicious devices found at an anti-Islam rally” told readers almost nothing useful about what had actually occurred. Once again, when the facts are inconvenient, the narrative retreats into technically true but misleading territory and waits for the news cycle to move on.
The investigation remains active. Federal charges had not yet been formally filed as of Monday, and Tisch declined to detail the specific allegations pending prosecution.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING BO POLNY
Not Stepping into WWIII, Peace Coming – Bo Polny
By Greg Hunter On March 8, 2026 In Political Analysis2 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAwatchdog.com
At the end of last year, Biblical cycle timing expert, geopolitical and financial analyst Bo Polny predicted the price of physical silver and gold would explode. He was right, and Polny says there is way more upside coming for both metals. Polny also predicted since the beginning of 2025 that there would be no World War III. Many were saying it would start at anytime, and that did not happen in 2025. Polny was right again. There is much talk about how bad the US is doing with the Iran conflict but almost nothing about a huge problem Iran has and that is a severe water shortage. Scientists are calling what is happening in Iran “Water Bankruptcy,” and it is ongoing. Can Iran continue to fight a long war with this kind of dire water problems? I guess so if they can learn how to drink sand. What does Polny say now with the Iran/Israel/US conflict going full steam ahead? Polny says, “We are not stepping into ‘The Great Tribulation.’ We are not stepping into World War III. In order to have World War III, first off, you’ve got to have a Third Temple in Israel. We do not have a Third Temple in Israel. Everybody that keeps shouting World War III has not read the Bible. . .. In order to have World War III, you have to have the Third temple. The Anti-Christ has to go into the temple, and he desecrates the temple. . .. The Jewish nation is going to build a Third Temple. Why? It’s because that’s all they know. They don’t believe in Jesus. America believes in Jesus.”
Polny points out that the Bible says the name of Jesus will be spoken around the world. This is what is coming, and not world war. Polny says, “Christ does not return until his name is spoken to the four corners of the Earth. That is not happening right now. In order to take the Name of Jesus Christ to the four corners of the Earth, you need trillions of dollars. . .. Not only do you get the Death Angel (as in Exodus in the Bible), the day after in Exodus, the greatest transfer of wealth in history began. Israel departed Egypt with crazy amounts of wealth. They basically took all their gold and silver. The greatest wealth and health transfer in human history is what is coming, and not World War III.”
Polny goes on to say, “Christ tells us when he’s coming back. ‘He says you will hear of wars,’ Venezuela, Iran and Ukraine and ‘rumors of wars,’ and here it is, ‘but be not deceived, the end is not yet’ (Matt 24). What we are witnessing is these are the beginnings of birth pains. We are witnessing child birth, and the mother is about to give birth in May.”
Polny contends silver and gold will be exploding again soon starting on or about March 19th. Polny says, “March 19th is New Year’s Day for God. It is in the scriptures.”
Polny’s Biblical time calculations also say, “All the wars will be over by May 24, 2026. . .. Between March 19 and April 5 . . . the Nephilim possessed spirits will be no more. ‘You will look for them, but they will not be found. The meek will inherit the land and enjoy peace and prosperity’ (Psalm 37:10-11), which means by May, the wealth transfer would have happened, and we will be enjoying peace and prosperity. So, by the time we get into the Fourth of July, we have peace, prosperity and wealth. It’s the greatest time period in human history. America turns 250 years old, and we are celebrating because God moved upon the Earth.”
In closing, Polny points out, “On May 17, President Trump is rededicating America to God. . ..The Glory of God falls on the Earth, and this will start the greatest revival in human history.”
There is much more in the 76-minute mind blowing interview with Biblical time calculations.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny. He talks about why gold and silver will continue to “explode higher,” and why there is not going to be World War III, at least not for a while. Polny also explains events and signs coming that he documents in his new book called “Revelation: The Good News, Jubilee Edition, End of Days Timeline Revealed,” for 3.8.26.
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After the Interview:usawatchdog.com/not-stepping-into-wwiii-peace-coming-bo-polny
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