GOLD CLOSED CLOSED DOWN $44.25 TO $5117.75
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $5096,00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 85.00 3;30 PM)
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 5,167.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/11/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 03/13/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 7
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 11
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 13
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 35
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 131
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 19
709 C BARCLAYS 56
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 6
905 C ADM 5 1
TOTAL: 142 142
MONTH TO DATE: 7,642
JPMORGAN STOPPED 19/142
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MARCH/2026: 142 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 14,200 OZ or 0.4416 TONNES
total notices so far: 7642 contracts for 764,200 OR 23.769 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 364 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.820 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 7064 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 35,320 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 24 CONTRACTS OR 120,000 OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 39.065MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 31.370 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 120,000 OZ QUEUE //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCESTO 39.065 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 1.897 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.958 TONNES/
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.897 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.958TONNES OF GOLD./
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.897 TONNES QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.958 TONNES/
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 103.30 TONNES//WILL BE VERY STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
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SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 331 CONTRACTS OI TO 115,789 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 112,794 CONTRACTS THIS MONTH( MARCH 4/2026)
EFP ISSUANCE 855 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 855 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 398 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 585 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1186 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $3.96
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.930 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $3.96
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 12 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.48 PTS OR 0.64%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 182.00 PTS OR 0.70%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 998.37 PTS OR 1.81%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UDOWN6.8757
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8769 Oil UP TO 90.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97,77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8759OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8769 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UDOWNAGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1726 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 415,682 OI , (AT A LEVEL FROM DECADES ALL TIME LOW OF 404,829), DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $70.55 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, DESPITE THAT HUGE PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD . AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1450).
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING/RAID. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS STARTED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY LONG THIS MONTH AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GOING NET SHORT AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MARCH CONTRACT MONTH!!
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW POINT IN OI OF 404,829 AND FROM THIS POINT, OI WILL RISE BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE CROOKS TO FLEECE OUR NEWBIE SPEC LONGS. THE ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI IS 390,000 CONTRACTS WHICH OCCURRED IN 2001 WITH GOLD AROUND $260. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT TODAY, THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND 1 TO 2 %.(SILVER IS AT 7%). WITH AN OI OF 419,558 THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR THE CROOKS TO RAID OUR NEWBIE SPECULATORSWHO ARE VERY STICKY AT THIS POINT.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 276 CONTRACTS (OR 0.855 TONNES) DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE, WEDNESDAY.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. WE HAVE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE THUS FAR FOR FEB NOW REMAINS AT SIX.(31.251 TONNES)
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MARCH:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUAY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: ZERO ISSUED SO FAR!
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MARCH COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,052 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MARCH/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 15,013 T.A.S CONTRACTS AND WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK AND IT IS IN FULL FORCE WITH ANOTHERRAID TODAY.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SO FAR.. BUT DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE:
FOR EXAMPLE:
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 11 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1.897 TONNES//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 30.958 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MARCH,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $70.55 )
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY (AND HUGE TODAY) // COMEX SESSION// DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI // BUT WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY’S ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (157 TONNES) AND ALSO MARCH’S STANDING OF 18+ TONNES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO MARCH:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT STRONG QUEUE JUMP 1.897 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 30.958 TONNES/
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $70.55
WE HAD A HUGE 7328 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 276 CONTRACTS OR 27600 OZ OR 0.855TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MARCH 12
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks; 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) total tonnes removed: 2 tonnes. |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 142 CONTRACTS OR 14,200 OZ 0.4416 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2313 contracts 231300 OZ 7.194 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 7642 notices 764,200 oz 23.769 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
0 entry
customer withdrawals:
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks; 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars)
total tonnes removed: 2 tonnes.
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs 1
dealer to customer account: BRINKS
i) 27,936.523 OZ
0.868 TONNES REMOVED FROM DEALER TO CUSTOMER ACCT.
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
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chaos inside the comex
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH
THE FRONT MONTH OF MARCH STANDS AT 2455 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1265 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
1875 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUGE 610 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 61,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THE TONNAGE EQUATES TO 1.892 TONNES . THIS IS A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AS CENTRAL BANKERS CLAMOUR FOR OUR ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET
APRIL IS THE NEXT LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH AND IT LOST 12,853 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 212,539 CONTRACTS. APRIL IS NOW THE NEW FRONT MONTH FOR DELIVERY OF GOLD. APRIL IS GENERALLY A VERY STRONG DELIVERY MONTH
MAY GAINED 12 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 863.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY A STRONG 14,633 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 132,898
We had 142 contracts filed for today representing 14,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 142 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 142 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAR. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7642) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (2455 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 142 x 100 oz per contract) equals 995,500 OZ OR (30.958 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month: No of notices filed so far (7642 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAR (2455 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (142 x 100 oz) which equals 995,500 OZ OR 30.958 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in MAR is 30.958 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH 30.958 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW MEGA HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 194,460 poor
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,717,146.01 oz 53.410 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,717,146.010 tonnes oz 52.58 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 32,656,406.591 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,697,449.281 or 519.360 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 15,958,957.310 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 14,980,303 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
465.950 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
MARCH 12 2026
INITIAL/
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of HSBC 16,006.370 oz ii) Out of Manfra 1058,679.682 total withdrawal: 1,074,686.052 oz the comex is being drained of silver |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex: 253,735.850 oz total dealer deposit; 253,735.850 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT ENTRIES: 1 i) Into CNT 598,969.330 oz total deposit: 598,969.330 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 364 CONTRACT(S) ( 1.820 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 749 Contracts (3.745 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 7064 contracts 35.320 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 1
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into CNT 598,969.330 oz
total deposit: 598,969.330 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits into dealer account: 1
1 ENTRY
i) Into Stonex: 253,735.850 oz
total dealer deposit; 253,735.850 oz
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of HSBC 16,006.370 oz
ii) Out of Manfra 1058,679.682
total withdrawal: 1,074,686.052 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 1// customer acct to dealer Manfra
a) Manfra 4667.506 oz
total removal from the registered silver to eligible silver: 1,524,812.662 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 78.610 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 344.324 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MARCH
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2026 OI: 1113 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 4 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A TINY 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL TRY FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS A BANKER ASSISTED QUEUE JUMP.
APRIL, THE NEW FRONT MONTH SAW A GAIN OF 486 CONTRACTS UP TO 1942 CONTRACTS
MAY SAW A 614 CONTRACT LOSS DOWN TO 77,860 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAY A GAIN OF 92 CONTRACTS UP TO 365 OI CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 364 or 1.820 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 51,677 fair+++//
AND NOW MARCH. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7064 X5,000 oz = 35.320 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH (1113) AND the number of notices served upon today (364)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH 2026 contract month: (7064)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH(1113) minus number of notices served upon today (364 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the FEB..contract month equating to 39.065 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 39.065MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL LOWISH FOR A GENERALLY HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
New total standing: 39.065 million oz.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are ONLY 78.610 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 152.021/344.324.million: 44.12%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
FEB 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $148.25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $79.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 18/2026/WITH GOLD UP $102.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 17/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $136.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077..04 TONNES
FEB 13/2026/WITH GOLD UP $94.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.140 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1076.18 TONNES
FEB 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $143.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.32 TONNES
FEB 11/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.65 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.34 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.32 TONNES
FEB 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1077.28 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTALGOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
FEB 20 WITH SILVER UP $4.85 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.035 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.853 MILLION OZ
FEB 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 5.798 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.888 MILLION OZ
FEB 18 WITH SILVER UP $4.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 11.325 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.686 MILLION OZ
FEB 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.39 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.253 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.753 MILLION OZ
FEB 13 WITH SILVER UP $2.35 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.994 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.011 MILLION OZ
FEB 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $8.78 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.005 MILLION OZ
FEB 11 WITH SILVER UP $3.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 815,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.370 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.21 NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.555 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 499.592 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
.2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JESSE COLUMBO
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE AND LIVE FROM THE VAULT PODCASTS
KINESIS: PODCAST NO 262/ANDREW WITH BILL HOLTER
5. COMMODITY REPORT//COAL
ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 12/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.48 PTS OR 0.64%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 182.00 PTS OR 0.70%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 998.37 PTS OR 1.81%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UDOWN6.8757
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8769 Oil UP TO 90.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97,77 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8759OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8769 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UDOWNAGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8759
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8769
1.HANG SANG DOWN 182.00 POINTS OR 0.70%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 998.39 PTS OR 1.81%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP 91.93
BRENT; 97.77
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.42 /// EURO RISES TO 1.1549UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +2.184 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.35… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.476UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.87059(DOWN) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8769
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.9420 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.706 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.426
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.681
3j Gold at $5180.50 Silver at: 86.94 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 4/100 roubles/79.18
3m oil (WTI) into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.86 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.184% UP 2BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.476 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.7825 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9037 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.236UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.884 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.659 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.12 UP 4 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7310 UP 8 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.394 UP 6 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.487 UP 8 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.034UP 8 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Tumble As Oil Jumps Above $100 On Iran War Chaos
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 08:33 AM
US futures are sharply lower, as oil briefly surges back over $100 while markets start to accept the view that the Iran war will not end this week, and possibly any time soon. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% and R2K futures slide more than 1%. Futures dropped more than 1% overnight as Iraq suspended oil terminal activity following an attack on two tankers; they recovered some losses after the resumption of normal operations at Oman’s Mina Al Fahal oil terminal. Global market moves overnight were relatively benign: KOSPI down 48bps the most muted day in weeks, China flattish, Europe mixed with Germany flat and France down 50bps. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all weaker, energy names are stronger, and defensives outperform cyclicals on the move lower. Iran offered an off-ramp (guarantee of no future attacks from US and Israel) but unclear if that will be accepted. Private credit fears continue to surface as Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater gated withdrawals from their private credit funds, pressuring both Equities and Credit. Bond yields are flat, the USD is bid, and commodities are seeing strength across all 3 complexes, led by Energy. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and housing starts. The Fed remains in blackout into next week’s (Mar 18) meeting. The market wants to see if Powell echoed Trump’s view that prices increases from the conflict are transitory when other central banks are seeing expectations flip from cuts to hikes.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Meta -0.7%, Amazon -0.6%, Microsoft -0.4%, Nvidia -0.4%, Tesla and Apple little changed)
- Fertilizer, energy and chemical stocks climb as the war in Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz tighten supply, raising prices, while airlines and cruise stocks are down as higher crude prices lift costs.
- Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) falls 3% after the asset manager defended its recent sale of $1.4 billion of loans from three of its funds, arguing the transaction contained no backstops or hidden incentives.
- Bumble (BMBL) rises 24% after the online dating company forecast Ebitda for the first quarter that beat expectations. Analysts noted that focus now shifts to upcoming product overhaul planned for later in the year.
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rises 5% after rallying 10% on Wednesday. The stock is set to extend its advance for a fourth straight session.
- Lightwave Logic (LWLG) climbs 16% after the company announced a development agreement with Tower Semiconductor.
- Petco (WOOF) rises 10% as the pet health and wellness company’s adjusted Ebitda forecast for the first quarter beat the average analyst estimate. Jefferies upgrades its rating, noting that investors underappreciate the progress made thus far.
- UiPath (PATH) falls 6% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results. Bloomberg Intelligence writes that growth concerns persist despite a strong quarter.
In corporate news, Atlassian is the latest software firm to announce AI-linked job cuts. Abivax shares are surging after French media reported that the biotech had granted AstraZeneca exclusive access to confidential information until March 23 with a view to formalizing an offer. And the widening war has upended global travel, sending fares soaring and leaving travelers facing record prices ahead of the Easter rush.
Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai and shipping assets, pushing oil briefly back above $100 a barrel and intensifying concern about the length of the Middle East war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters and Oman evacuated ships from a key terminal. The Iran war has disrupted 7.5% of global crude supply, with flows through the Strait down by more than 90%, the IEA said. It’s telling that after yet another Whitehouse jawbone and the IEA’s record reserve release announcement, oil still failed to drop. Overnight Reuters reported, “Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say”.
Hostilities are fast-approaching a third week, with no sign of de-escalation. Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai and shipping assets, driving oil prices higher and increasing concern among traders about how much longer the conflict in the Middle East will go on for. The surge in oil prices reflects concern that the conflict could throw energy markets into turmoil for a prolonged period, with efforts to cushion the impact offering little relief. Crude is driving moves across asset classes as traders fear that higher fuel costs will rekindle inflation and hit economic growth.
“What you’re are seeing is the market pricing a long-lasting scenario of high oil prices,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “The security of shipping in the region is a big concern while the release of emergency oil reserves can only provide temporary relief.”
The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that the Iran war is causing unprecedented turmoil in oil markets. Global oil supply will be slashed by 8 million barrels a day this month, or almost 250 million barrels in total, the IEA estimated. The report comes after the agency’s members agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves on Wednesday.
“While Trump’s claim that we could soon see a resolution to the conflict does provide hesitancy for the bulls, the reality of the situation will undoubtedly call for higher prices as the days roll on,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.
For Francois Rimeu, senior strategist at Credit Mutuel Asset Management in Paris, the reaction in equity markets has been rather sanguine given how broad and impactful a worst-case scenario for the conflict could be. “The draw-down could really turn much lower should the conflict last longer, and the longer it lasts, the longer a return to business as usual will be,” Rimeu said. “If you ask me when is the right time to buy back, I would tend to say when one actually sees ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz again.”
In the latest hit to private credit, Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater gated withdrawals from their multibillion-dollar private credit funds after investors sought to redeem vastly more than the vehicles allow. Partners Group warned that private credit default rates could double in the next few years. Tariffs are also back in the spotlight as the US begins a probe into trade investigations that set the stage for new levies.
Back on oil, China tightened fuel export curbs, while the average retail cost for one gallon of gasoline in the US has risen to the highest level since May 2024, piling pressure onto the administration to find an off-ramp for the conflict. Trump has said that the war could end soon, but the latest rhetoric from Iran dimmed prospects for a quick resolution.
Elsewhere, JPMorgan said hedge funds are experiencing the biggest drawdown since April’s tariff turmoil, as unwinds in crowded trades punish the fast-money cohort. In a brutal trading week, Citadel’s Global Fixed Income Fund and Taula Capital Management are among the hedge funds worst hit, while D.E. Shaw’s two main vehicles were a rare bright spot in the industry.
European stocks are lower across the board but off session troughs after the resumption of normal operations at Oman’s Mina Al Fahal oil terminal provided some reprieve. Banks are the biggest underperformer, while chemicals outperform most. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Accelleron Industries shares rise as much as 17%, a record jump that briefly sent the stock to an all-time high, after the maker of turbochargers posted full-year earnings that topped expectations, with a solid outlook and its first buybacks
- Abivax shares rise as much as 17% after La Lettre reported the biotech company had granted AstraZeneca exclusive access to confidential information until March 23 with a view to formalizing an offer
- K+S gains as much as 8.8%, the most since last April, after the German fertilizer group reported solid earnings, which analysts said boded well for 2026. They noted that higher sulfur prices due to tumult in the Middle East could prove a tailwind
- Zalando gains as much as 9.2%, the most since November, after the German online seller of fashion announced a new share buyback program of up to €300 million, which RBC said should soothe concerns over capital allocation
- Leonardo shares gain as much as 8.7% to a new record high after the defense technology firm outlined its targets through 2030, which Mediobanca described as “bullish.” Analysts highlight, in particular, order intake expectations
- Bachem shares jump as much as 9.7%, the most since July, after the pharmaceutical ingredients producer reported slightly better results than expected
- PolyPeptide advances as much as 11% after confirming its 2025 numbers and providing outlook commentary which Jefferies says demonstrates the biotechnology company’s strong execution
- Trainline shares slide as much as 6.7% after its annual results, with JPMorgan warning the rail ticketing platform is lacking visibility and faces a “more challenging chapter ahead” in FY27
- Bodycote drops as much as 5.5% after being downgraded at RBC Capital Markets, with analysts citing more limited upside. The cut comes a day after the provider of heat treatment and specialist thermal processing services beat expectation
- Savills shares fall as much as 8.4% to the lowest in six months, as the property services group’s in-line results are overshadowed by the war in the Middle East
- On the Beach shares drop as much as 15% to the lowest level since November 2024. The online seller of package holidays suspended its full-year guidance of £39m to £43m adjusted profit before tax due to a “significant slowdown”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell on Thursday, snapping a two-day rising streak after a string of disruptions in the Iran war renewed fears of a longer-term energy supply strain in the Middle East and briefly pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2%, led by chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. The jump in oil prices came as Iran suspended oil terminal activity following an assault on two tankers, and Oman temporarily evacuated its main export hub. The regional benchmark had climbed for two previous sessions when oil prices softened, underscoring investors’ focus on volatile energy markets. Bonds in the euro area trimmed early declines.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.3%, before paring the advance; the greenback is on course for a fresh 2026 high, options markets show. USD/JPY is little changed at 158.90; it rose earlier to a two-month high at 159.24 as options traders and strategists see a high threshold for intervention from Japan to defend the yen
In rates, US rates have clambered off session lows but remain weak with global bonds erasing 2026 gains. US yields are down around 1bps across the curve. US long-end yields are little changed with front-end tenors richer by 1bp-2bp, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year near 4.21% is lower by about 1bp with UK counterpart up about 4bp. In IG issuance, Salesforce led eight issuers that sold a combined $41.7 billion Wednesday, taking weekly volume past $107b, the third largest on record achieved in only two sessions. Issuers paid an elevated 21bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 1.9 times covered. At least one issuer stood down Wednesday, while a couple are considering Thursday.
A Bloomberg index that tracks total returns from investment-grade government and corporate bonds is now flat for 2026. The gauge had been up as much as 2.1% this year through Feb. 27, just before the US and Israel attacked Iran.
In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 4.6% to $98 but off session highs; Iranian attacks on shipping assets and areas of Dubai alongside China tightening fuel export curbs briefly lifted prices above the $100 a barrel mark.Spot gold and silver are higher by 1.5% and 0.1% respectively. Bitcoin is down 0.4%.
US economic data slate includes January trade balance and housing starts and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and 4Q household change in net worth (12pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.6%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -1.3%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
- DAX -0.5%
- CAC 40 -0.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.23%
- VIX +1.3 points at 25.53
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1204.95
- euro -0.1% at $1.1551
- WTI crude +6.2% at $92.66/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai and shipping assets, pushing oil briefly back above $100 a barrel and intensifying concern about the length of the Middle East war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters and Oman evacuated ships from a key terminal. The Iran war has disrupted 7.5% of global crude supply, with flows through the Strait down by more than 90%, the IEA said. BBG
- President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. Stopping the fighting carries risks. Leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. WSJ
- India plans to unveil a more than $10.8 billion fund aimed at bolstering domestic chipmaking, people familiar said. BBG
- German bond yields rose to their highest since October 2023 as the Iran war stoked inflation concerns. BBG
- Oracle has stepped up preparations to cut jobs over the coming months as it credits AI with driving efficiencies in its team and conserves cash to fund its costly push into data centers. FT
- President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. Stopping the fighting carries risks. Leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. WSJ
- U.S. officials say relentless American and Israeli aerial attacks have crippled Iran’s air defenses, navy and missile arsenal. But the regime in Tehran has so far held on to power, and it effectively shut down a crucial choke point for the world’s oil supplies. CNBC
- The White House believes it has until the end of March before rising gas prices become an “unsustainable” political five-alarm fire, one of the officials said. CNBC
- Morgan Stanley and private credit lender Cliffwater have restricted withdrawals from private credit funds, in the latest sign of investor unease about the sector. Separately, a US distressed debt investment fund told its investors that private credit lenders such as Blue Owl are obscuring weaknesses in their portfolios and a sharp correction in debt markets is approaching soon. FT
- Investors demanded significant concessions in Salesforce’s $25bn bond deal on Wed, highlighting rising worries on Wall Street about how AI technology could disrupt software companies. FT
- Trump is to signs orders on housing in the coming days, according to Punchbowl citing a White House spokesperson.
- BofA Card Spending (w/e March 7th): +4.6% Y/Y, vs 3.2% in February. Y/Y spending appears to be robust in the early part of March.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined as rising oil prices dampened sentiment and stoked inflationary concerns, while the announcement of a record joint emergency reserves release failed to drag energy prices lower, due to likely slow deliveries and with further disruptions in the Middle East from the ongoing hostilities. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with further calls by large banks for the RBA to deliver a back-to-back rate hike next week. Nikkei 225 briefly slumped below the 54,000 level as the higher oil prices lifted yields and weighed on manufacturer and exporter sentiment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood in the region, with risk appetite also not helped by the announcement that the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan.
Top Asian News
- Japanese PM Takaichi said won’t rule out using FY25 reserve funds for fuel and the existing fund has JPY 280bln remaining, adds no additional budget for fuel subsidies now and will use existing fund for fuel price measures.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) have started the cash session on the backfoot, with higher oil prices continuing to weigh on growth prospects. Weakness in banks continues to affect the IBEX 35 (-0.9%), given its exposure. The DAX 40 (U/C) is modestly lower, but losses are limited due to gains in Zalando (+12.2%), Rheinmetall (+2.9%) and Hannover Re (+3.2%). European sectors are broadly in the red, with Banks (-2.1%) continuing to underperform. Automobiles (-0.9%) also sit near the bottom of the pile after BMW (-1.1%) missed Q4 sales estimates and forecast higher tariffs acting as a headwind on EBIT margin. Basic Resources (+0.7%) are benefiting from the rise in metals prices, while Chemicals (+0.8%) gain after K+S (+8.0%) beat Adj. EBITDA estimates.
Top European News
- Germany’s IFW institute sees 2026 inflation at 2.5% (prev. 1.8%), GDP at 0.8% (prev. 1.0%), 2027 GDP at 1.4% (prev. 1.3%).
Trade/Tariffs
- USTR Greer said US is initiating Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan, adds the investigation could lead to responsive actions, including tariffs. Said the EU has done approximately 0% of what was agreed in the bilateral trade deal.
- South Korea parliament passes US investment bill, as expected.
FX
- DXY is slightly firmer this morning and trades within a 99.31-99.52 range, and now heading back to the YTD high at 99.69 (March 9th). Upside on Wednesday was facilitated by higher yields as the energy prices continue to trudge higher as the geopolitical situation in Iran is showing little signs of abating any time soon, as an overnight attack on Omani export terminals led Brent back above USD 100/bbl. The recent IEA 400mln barrel reserve release has ultimately had little impact on prices, given the lengthy timeline for the barrels to enter the market and ING rightly points out, it still works out to be “far short of the supply losses we are seeing from the Persian Gulf”. Domestically, weekly jobless claims, trade data and Fed speak via Bowman – though she will not touch on monetary policy.
- G10s are broadly flat to lower against the USD. The JPY and CAD hold afloat, though the former remains within the touted intervention zone beyond 158.00. As mentioned in previous FX pieces, intervention seems unlikely given, a) intervention would prove to be ineffective given the current geopolitical environment, b) low volume short positions on the JPY, c) the move is fundamentally driven by higher energy prices d) the recent lack of verbal intervention suggests potentially higher bar for USD/JPY to rise. Nonetheless, markets will be cognizant of any jawboning heading into the BoJ meeting and wage negations next week.
- AUD underperforms vs USD this morning, scaling back some of this week’s gains. RBA hike bets continue to be taken by sell-side banks, with ANZ the latest see a 25bps increase at next week’s meeting; money markets now assign a circa 80% chance of such a move.
Central Banks
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said foreign exchange is an important factor affecting the economy and prices, during parliamentary testimony. Need to be mindful that Forex has larger impacts on prices than in the past and could affect inflation expectations. Will conduct appropriate monetary policy while assessing how Forex affects the likelihood of our forecasts.
- ANZ Bank and Goldman Sachs now see the RBA hiking the Cash Rate at next week’s meeting.
- NBP’s Janczyk said the current base rate is at an appropriate level for the coming quarters.
- BoK member Hwang said need to make rate decision with greater caution.
Fixed Income
- Another bearish session for fixed as, despite the IEA stockpile announcement, energy benchmarks are on the front foot once again with Brent eclipsing USD 100/bbl in APAC trade and Dutch TTF as high as EUR 53.80/MWh. In brief, energy strength comes as the market digests the time it will take for the IEA flows to hit the market, the Middle East conflict showing no immediate signs of stopping, and the associated ongoing Strait of Hormuz block.
- Given this, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks and holding just off a 111-21 base. If the move continues, we look to support at 111-19+, 111-10 and 111-08+ from earlier in the year. The US docket is headlined by Fed speak and then a 30yr auction to round off the week, after a poor 3yr and a 10yr that was an improvement from the last outing, but softer than the average tap.
- Gilts lower by around 40 ticks at most, hitting a 89.36 trough, which, while notable is still some way clear of the 88.80 MTD low and the 88.52 contract base. Pressure a function of the referenced energy moves and a return towards some of the hawkish BoE pricing seen at the start of the week, with around a 20% chance of a hike by end-2026 currently implied.
- Finally, Bunds followed suit at first and hit a 125.91 base, taking the German 10yr yield to another multi-year high. Amidst this, market pricing got to around an 80% chance of two 25bps hikes by the ECB in 2026; reminder, at most we have seen two hikes fully priced in recent sessions. However, this pared across the mid-morning with the benchmark briefly, but only marginally, moving into the green. No clear or overt fundamental behind the gradual turnaround, but the action is potentially a function of energy benchmarks easing from overnight peaks.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures trade firmer but off best levels after Brent futures briefly rose above USD 100/bbl in APAC hours, with the former currently in a USD 88.61-95.97/bbl range and the latter in a USD 96.69-101.59/bbl parameter. The gains come amid a war that seems to be escalating rather than abating (full Newsquawk Analysis available on the headline feed).
- European natgas prices are firmer but off their best levels after rising almost 8% in sympathy with crude prices. The EU’s Dombrovskis warned that inflation could exceed 3% this year if the Middle East war keeps Brent around USD 100/bbl and gas prices elevated for a prolonged period; under that scenario, 2026 growth would be up to 0.4ppts below the 1.4% pace forecast late last year.
- Spot gold is mildly firmer this morning and largely moves in tandem with the USD, which in turn tracks oil prices. Gold retreated overnight following US CPI data, which reduced expectations for any near-term Fed rate cuts, and as the Middle East conflict lifted crude prices. XAU/USD resides in a USD 5,125.64-5,189.86/oz range within Tuesday’s USD 5,117.35-5,238.75/oz.
- 3M LME copper ekes mild gains on either side of USD 13,000/t as the red metal largely tracks the USD and oil for any impact on the growth narrative, with further upside likely capped by the US initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU. 3M LME copper currently resides in a narrow USD 12,920.60-13,055.88/t range at the time of writing.
- IEA OMR: cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 2.4mln BPD), total 2026 supply forecast 107.2mln BPD (prev. 108.6mln BPD). Middle East conflict is the largest oil supply disruption ever. Demand Forecasts. 2026, total: 104.8mln BPD. 2026, growth: 640k BPD (prev. 850k BPD). OPEC+ production decreased by 210k BPD in February.
- US is to release 172mln barrels of crude from strategic petroleum reserve, according to Energy Department. The release will begin next week, with delivery expected to take around 120 days based on planned discharge rates, while the US will replace reserves by 20% more than what will be withdrawn. SPR release is part of the broader coordinated crude oil release from IEA member countries in response to the Iran war.
- US President Trump said IEA decision to release oil from reserves will substantially reduce oil prices.
- Oman’s Mina Al Fahal crude export terminal has resumed normal operations after a temporary halt earlier Thursday, with loading activities now proceeding as usual, according to reported.
- Iraqi official said oil ports have completely stopped operations, while commercial ports continue to operate following attack on two fuel tankers.
- India is in discussions with Iran to secure passage for 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said hope to see ships through the Strait of Hormuz in a few weeks.
- China reportedly expands BHP’s (BHP AT) iron ore ban to new products, asking domestic steel mills not to take delivery from BHP’s Portside Newman fines from next week.
Geopolitics
- A senior US administration official, on the Middle East conflict and President Trump’s view, said “The Iranians fcking around with the Strait makes him more dug in”. An advisor said that Trump is bullish on the success of the operation thus far and believes the American people will believe it was the right approach once it is over. Advisor adds that Trump, and others in the administration, genuinely believe that gas prices will substantially fall when the Middle East conflict concludes, and long enough before the midterms to not be a problem.
- US President Trump was reportedly “ambiguous and noncommittal” during the G7 leaders call, Axios reported; with some participants thinking POTUS wants to end the war, while other attendees left with the opposite view.
- US President Trump said we knocked out Iran’s navy and mine layers, adds oil prices will come down, but we won’t leave early. said the job on Iran must be finished and don’t want to return every two years.
- US President Trump said we know where Iranian sleeper cells are and have eyes on all of them, adds we are going to look very closely at the Straits.
- Reports of a drone attack on a US military base in Kuwait, Tasnim reported.
- According to Lebanese newspaper citing diplomatic sources, Iran clarified that they defend itself against American and Israeli aggression and that it will not agree to a ceasefire that is not accompanied by clear guarantees, via N12 News reporter Lipkin.
- Officials from four nations are attempting to persuade Iran to begin talks with the US, Jerusalem Post reported citing sources; however, thus far, Iran has refused to engage and is maintaining a hardline position.
- Reports suggests that Iran says it struck a US oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran said it gives permission for Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This was later denied by an Iranian source.
- “The campaign against Hezbollah will not be short and will not adhere to a specific timetable”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli officials.
- Iranian explosive-laden boats hit two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters.
- Iran military-affiliated outlet Defa press cites informed sources that note Yemeni resistance and some other resistance groups are fully prepared to join the battle in the coming days. According to predictions, with the entry of these groups, there is a risk of closing the strategic Bab-al-Mandab Strait which would disrupt transit in the Suez Canal.
- UKMTO received a report of an incident 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in United Arab Emirates, in which a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile causing a small fire, while all crew are safe.
- Saudi Ministry of Defence said they are intercepting a drone heading to the Shaybah oil field, Sky News Arabia reported; reported suggest the interception was successful.
- Qatar residents reportedly receive mobile alert for missile threat.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Jan Trade Balance, est. -66b, prior -70.3b
- 8:30 am: United States Mar 7 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215k, prior 213k
- 8:30 am: United States Feb 28 Continuing Claims, est. 1849k, prior 1868k
- 8:30 am: United States Jan Housing Starts, est. 1340.5k, prior 1404k
- 8:30 am: United States Jan P Building Permits, est. 1410k, prior 1455k
- 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Basel III
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we go to press this morning, the market volatility has shown no sign of easing, with Brent crude surging back +8.95% overnight to $100.21/bbl. The main catalyst for that has been further attacks on shipping, with two tankers and a container vessel struck in the Gulf this morning. Moreover, Bloomberg have also reported overnight that Oman has evacuated ships from the export terminal of Mina Al Fahal, which exports around 1mn barrels per day. So that’s driven a fresh surge in oil prices, and there’s been a clear risk-off move as a result. Indeed, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.86%) and the German DAX (-1.06%) have seen further declines this morning, and the major indices in Asia have all lost ground as well.
From a market perspective, the problem is that investors are increasingly pricing in a more protracted conflict that causes extensive economic damage. After all, with no concrete signs of de-escalation yet, that’s keeping oil prices elevated, and raising the risk of a broader stagflationary shock. Indeed, we know that investors are pricing in the longer scenarios, because the 6-month Brent future is also up +3.06% this morning to $82.97/bbl, and with each passing day it gets harder to argue that the disruption to shipping and energy infrastructure will only prove temporary.
With the latest move back above $100/bbl, we’re also getting closer to the territory that’s historically led to bigger risk-off moves. I explored this in a note on Monday (link here), looking at the scenarios where previous oil shocks have led to sizeable market selloffs. So far at least we’ve not been in that territory, because of the assumption that oil prices aren’t going to be elevated for a sustained period, which we can see in the futures curve. In other words, markets aren’t yet pricing in a 2022-style scenario, where oil prices spent around 5 months above $100/bbl. In addition, fears of a hawkish response aren’t as prominent today relative to 2022 because inflation was running well above target to start with back then, even before the oil price spike. But clearly the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow.
Those fears of a longer conflict have been reflected in the latest newsflow as well, with few signs that either side are moving towards a ceasefire. Indeed, Iran’s Fars News agency cited a military spokesman yesterday who said that they were moving from reciprocal to continuous strikes, while Bloomberg reported later in the day that Iran had told regional intermediaries that to achieve a ceasefire the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike Iran in the future. Meanwhile, President Trump separately said that the US could strike even more targets if they wanted. So comments like that added to the concern that both sides were preparing for an extended operation, with no obvious sign of either backing down.
For investors, a big focus is whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen, but traffic there is still largely suspended in practice. For instance, the German foreign minister said yesterday that it was “definitely not navigable at the moment”. And even though there was more discussion about escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, President Macron said it would take a few weeks to coordinate. However, there was some brief relief from the International Energy Agency’s announcement, as they agreed to release 400mn barrels from emergency reserves, with the US confirming later on that this would include 172mn barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to be released over 120 days.
The latest oil spike overnight comes on the back of another tough session yesterday, with Brent crude (+4.76%) already posting a decent increase back up to $91.98/bbl, even before the latest attacks. And there was little respite elsewhere, as hawkish ECB commentary led to a major selloff for European sovereign bonds, with 10yr bund yields (+9.7bps) closing at their highest level since late-2023, at 2.93%. So it was a tough day across the board, and concern about the wider economic damage meant equities struggled, even before the latest falls overnight. Indeed, we know that the longer-term scenarios are being priced in, because the 12-month Brent future (+2.94%) was up to $74.17/bbl, posting its biggest daily gain yesterday since the strikes began.
As all that was happening, there were huge moves for European sovereigns yesterday as speculation grew about an ECB rate hike this year. That was driven by comments from Slovakia’s central bank governor Kazimir, who said “a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think”. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Nagel said the ECB “will act decisively” if the energy shock translates into higher medium-term inflation. So those comments and yesterday’s oil price moves saw investors fully price in an ECB rate hike as soon as the July meeting. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+9.7bps), OATs (+12.6bps) and BTPs (+14.3bps) all saw their biggest rise since March last year, back when the German debt brake reform was announced. So these were significant moves, even in the context of the volatility of recent days. Indeed, there were even larger yield moves at the front end of the curve, with 2yr German yields (+12.4bps) jumping up to 2.37%, their highest since September 2024.
That pattern was echoed in the US, where investors also moved to dial back the pace of cuts this year. So by the close, there was just a 35% probability of a cut by the June meeting, which spoke to growing doubt about how quickly a new Fed Chair could start easing policy. And looking further out, just 30bps of cuts were priced in by the December meeting, which is the fewest so far this year, and overnight that’s fallen back to 28bps. So Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+6.1bps) at a 5-month high of 3.65%, whilst the 10yr yield (+7.4bps) was up to 4.23%. And overnight, the 10yr yield (+1.0bps) is up again to 4.24%.
Amidst all that, we did get the latest US CPI print for February. However, markets were paying a lot less attention to that than usual, given we know there’s going to be a fresh price shock from the Middle East conflict. So to some extent, the print was already seen as backward-looking. Even so, there was little reaction anyway, as the numbers were broadly in line with expectations beforehand. So headline CPI was at a monthly +0.3% as expected, keeping the year-on-year rate at +2.4%. And core CPI was at a monthly +0.2%, leaving the year-on-year rate at +2.5%.
Given the mounting fears about an extended economic shock, with potentially hawkish implications, global equities have lost ground across the world. In Asia overnight, the major indices have fallen back across the region, with declines for the Nikkei (-1.34%), the Hang Seng (-1.32%), the CSI 300 (-0.98%), the KOSPI (-0.91%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.65%). Then in Europe, the STOXX 600, the DAX (-1.37%) and the CAC 40 (-0.19%) all fell back. And in the US, the S&P 500 (-0.08%) was down for a second day running despite paring back its losses later in the session. That was another broad-based decline, with two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents down on the day, though a third consecutive gain for the Mag 7 (+0.37%) helped counteract the deeper losses elsewhere.
In other news, US Trade Representative Greer announced that they would begin Section 301 investigations into over a dozen major economies, including China, the EU, India and Japan, focusing on alleged excess manufacturing capacity. The investigations are required for the President to be able to set tariffs against countries deemed to rely on unfair trading practices, which the administration could use to replace the stopgap 150-day Section 122 duties that it imposed after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs last month.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, along with housing starts and building permits for January. Otherwise, central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Bowman, and the ECB’s Villeroy.
l b European opening report
1 c Asian opening report
US initiates 301 probe into key trade partners; Higher oil dampens global sentiment – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 02:51 AM
- APAC stocks declined as rising oil prices dampened sentiment and stoked inflationary concerns, while the announcement of a record joint emergency reserves release failed to drag energy prices lower, due to likely slow deliveries and with further disruptions in the Middle East from the ongoing hostilities.
- US President Trump said they knocked out Iran’s navy and mine layers, and stated that they won’t leave Iran early.
- The FBI warned police departments in California that Iran wants to retaliate by launching drones against the West Coast.
- Crude futures rallied some 7% despite the IEA announcement of a record 400mln-barrel emergency joint release, as the action could be seen as a mere band-aid on the supply shock.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Jan), US Trade Balance (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Atlanta Fed GDP, IEA OMR, and CBRT Policy Announcement. Speakers include BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Bowman. Supply from Italy, UK & US, Earnings from Adobe.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said the US military is hitting Iran very hard, while he commented ‘more of the same’ on military action to end the Iranian operation and thinks companies should use the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, he said they are not finished yet regarding Iran, and have to get rid of Hezbollah regarding Lebanon.
- US President Trump said they knocked out Iran’s navy and mine layers, as well as stated that they won’t leave Iran early, must finish the job on Iran, and don’t want to return every two years.
- US officials said Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Institute for the Study of War estimated that 10 mines had been laid, although it was separately reported that the JMIC said there was no confirmed evidence of mines in the strait.
- The FBI warned police departments in California that Iran wants to retaliate by launching drones against the West Coast.
- IDF announced it started a wide-scale wave of strikes in Tehran.
- An Israeli senior defence official said Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran carried out a joint missile attack on northern Israel, the first coordinated attack since the start of the war. Furthermore, an official said Hezbollah brings its end into its own hands, and the next 24 hours will largely determine the future of the continuation of the battle in Lebanon.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is by recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations and firm international guarantees against future aggression.
- IRGC said it carried out the 40th wave of its operations by firing Qadr, Imad, Khyber Shaken and Fatah missiles at targets in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa.
- Iranian military-affiliated outlet Defa Press cited informed sources that noted Yemeni resistance and some other resistance groups are fully prepared to join the battle in the coming days. It was also noted that according to predictions, the entry of these groups adds the risk of closing the strategic Bab-al-Mandab Strait, which would disrupt transit in the Suez Canal.
- Iranian explosive-laden boats hit two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, while an Iraqi official said oil ports have completely stopped operations, but commercial ports continue to operate following the attack on fuel tankers.
- Iran said it gives permission for Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, although this was later denied by an Iranian source.
- Oman was said to evacuate ships from the Min Al-Fahal oil terminal, as a precautionary measure.
- UAE reported a new wave of Iranian missile and drone attacks, while the UKMTO received a report of an incident 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, in which a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a small fire, although all crew were reported to be safe.
- Bahrain’s Interior Ministry said Iran attacked Bahrain’s fuel tanks.
- Sirens were activated in Kuwait, according to Iran International.
- Qatar residents reportedly received mobile alerts for a missile threat.
- Oman, Egypt and Turkey are trying to start a dialogue between Washington and Tehran, according to i24News, while a US official said that President Trump is starting to look for a way out, but an end to the war is not expected in the immediate term.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were slightly lower as rising oil prices limited any rebound from Tuesday’s late-stage selloff and although the IEA confirmed it is to release 400mln bbls of oil into the market, the timing will depend on each country, and there remains plenty of uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump attempting to get shippers to sail the Strait again, but is being met with resistance due to safety concerns, particularly amid reports of mines being placed there. There had also been reports suggesting Iran aspired to attack California with drones in response to the war, which also briefly hit sentiment and lifted oil prices. The move higher in crude saw yields move higher across the curve while there was likely dealer concession taking place ahead of the 10-year auction this afternoon, following the weak 3-year supply on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US CPI data, although in line with expectations, saw the PCE components lean hot – also adding to downward pressure in Treasuries.
- SPX -0.08% at 6,776, NDX +0.03% at 49,965, DJI -0.61% at 47,417, RUT -0.20% at 2,543.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- USTR Greer said the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan, which could lead to responsive actions, including tariffs. Greer stated they have been in consultation with trading partners, and that new actions should not be a surprise to them, while he added that the EU has done approximately 0% of what was agreed in the bilateral trade deal.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent reassured Brussels that Washington remains committed to its trade deal with the EU, in which he told EU trade chief Sefcovic in a call on Monday evening that the US intends to stick to the deal. Furthermore, a member of Sefcovic’s cabinet said the ambition to fulfil the commitments set out in the joint statement was reiterated by both sides.
- US President Trump said Spain’s leadership is not good and repeated a threat that he may cut off trade.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said prescription drug prices are coming down a lot and he has asked Congress to codify these policies.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks declined as rising oil prices dampened sentiment and stoked inflationary concerns, while the announcement of a record joint emergency reserves release failed to drag energy prices lower, due to likely slow deliveries and with further disruptions in the Middle East from the ongoing hostilities.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with further calls by large banks for the RBA to deliver a back-to-back rate hike next week.
- Nikkei 225 briefly slumped below the 54,000 level as the higher oil prices lifted yields and weighed on manufacturer and exporter sentiment.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood in the region, with risk appetite also not helped by the announcement that the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan.
- US equity futures were pressured alongside the rising oil prices, in which Brent and WTI briefly returned to above the USD 100/bbl and USD 95/bbl levels, respectively.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY was supported by a haven bid as the rise in oil prices stoked inflationary concerns and a pushback in Fed rate cut bets, with money markets now only fully pricing in one rate cut by the Fed this year and not until December, while recent US data had little effect as headline and core CPI matched forecasts.
- EUR/USD remained pressured amid a firmer buck and energy-related disruptions, while there were recent comments from ECB officials, including Schnabel, who noted that monetary policy is in a good place and that they must monitor the persistence of the energy price shock.
- GBP/USD trickled beneath the 1.3400 handle with cyclical currencies weighed on by the risk-off environment, while data also showed UK RICS House Price Balance deteriorated.
- USD/JPY edged higher to return to the 159.00 handle owing to a firmer buck and recent upside in US yields, while the higher oil prices added to the headwinds for Japan.
- Antipodeans were subdued owing to their high-beta characteristics, and with pressure in metal prices. Nonetheless, the oil-related pressures have spurred further hawkish central bank calls, with ANZ and Goldman Sachs joining the rate hike camp for next week’s RBA meeting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8959 vs exp. 6.8853 (Prev. 6.8917)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were subdued after retreating yesterday as yields rose alongside higher oil prices, likely dealer concessions and with some hot leaning PCE components in the CPI report, while US supply also looms.
- Bund futures fell beneath the 126.00 level after yesterday’s one-way downward price action, as oil prices and geopolitics continued to dominate markets.
- 10yr JGB futures lacked demand amid the oil-related inflation pressures, while there was little reaction to comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who noted that they need to be mindful that FX has larger impacts on prices than in the past and could affect inflation expectations.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures rallied despite the IEA announcement of a record 400mln-barrel emergency joint release, as the action could be seen as a mere band-aid on the supply shock and with the timeframe to depend on the circumstances of each member country, while the US release, which accounts for 172mln barrels, will begin next week, but the delivery is expected to take around 120 days based on planned discharge rates. Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East continues, and Iraq announced that oil ports have completely stopped operations following an attack on a couple of fuel tankers. However, oil later pared some of the gains after it was reported that Iran gave permission for Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but this was later denied by an Iranian source.
- US is to release 172mln barrels of crude from strategic petroleum reserve, which will begin next week, with the delivery expected to take around 120 days based on planned discharge rates, while the US will replace reserves by 20% more than what will be withdrawn and the SPR release is part of the broader coordinated crude oil release from IEA member countries in response to the Iran war, according to the Department of Energy.
- US President Trump said the IEA decision to release oil from reserves will substantially lower oil prices.
- US Interior Secretary Burgum said he spoke with energy companies about upping oil production, while he separately commented that what they heard out of the IEA was reasonable.
- Canada’s Energy Minister said the government is working urgently with the industry to assess the possible pace and scale of action, while more details are to follow in the coming days.
- China is said to ban fuel exports for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel with immediate effects.
- Spot gold declined amid a firmer buck and as the recent fluctuations in oil muddled the inflation and interest rate outlooks, with markets now only fully pricing one rate cut by the Fed this year and not until December.
- Copper futures retreated with risk sentiment spooked by surging oil prices, while the US also announced a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin steadily declined overnight with prices falling beneath the USD 70,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda said foreign exchange is an important factor affecting the economy and prices, while he added the need to be mindful that forex has larger impacts on prices than in the past and could affect inflation expectations. Furthermore, he stated that they will conduct appropriate monetary policy while assessing how forex affects the likelihood of their forecasts.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian Envoy Dmitriev met with members of the Trump admin in Florida, according to reports.
- G7 reaffirmed a determination to continue sanctions against Russia and agreed to establish coordination between G7 and Gulf countries to deal with the economic consequences of the Middle East war.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- EU warned that the Iran conflict could push the bloc’s inflation above 3%, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Feb) -12% vs. Exp. -9% (Prev. -10%)
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
/SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/TAIWAN
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
KOLBE
Germany’s Commuters Bear The Cost Of The Iran Crisis And Tax State
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
The excessive fiscal burden on fuels has driven gasoline prices in Germany higher since the start of the Iran crisis. Yet it seems unlikely that German policymakers will ease the burden on commuters or businesses. Apart from a task force, nothing has been planned. Other regions are proving more resilient.
The Iran conflict has entered its second week, and with it, concerns are growing over the consequences of the slowly but steadily building energy crisis for the global economy.
In Germany, the rise in oil prices was quickly reflected at the pumps. Prices jumped from around €1.65 per liter to over €2 – a roughly 25 percent increase in a very short period (Apollo News reported).
At the same time, suspicions arise that oil companies are securing quick profits by selling already invoiced and refined petroleum as well as existing gasoline stocks at the now significantly higher retail price, realizing excess profits.
However, this is a temporary effect, likely to be balanced quickly by market dynamics. The internationally high increase in German gasoline prices is almost entirely due to the fact that the state, through its tax policies, accounts for roughly 65 percent of the retail price. A silent profiteer in the crisis, while commuters face growing problems.
Whether CO₂ levies, fuel taxes, or VAT – the government should now act with fiscal restraint and provide significant relief to both commuters and businesses. So far, this is not the case. German politics stares like a rabbit at the snake in the Iran conflict. Slowly, it becomes clear that decades of ideologically driven energy policy were nothing more than a trillion-euro, subsidized fantasy – now turning into a nightmare.
USA Operate Autarkically
Across the Atlantic, the situation is very different. Gas prices in the United States rose by about five to ten percent. Eight months before the crucial midterm elections, this will be decisive for President Donald Trump to uphold his campaign promises and keep inflation under control.
A quick end to the Iran war is now imperative. Washington is weighing the geopolitical effects, control of global oil markets, and domestic inflation risks.
Since 2018, the United States has been the world’s largest oil producer with a daily output of 18 million barrels and is also an exporter of “black gold.” Its dominant position makes it relatively insulated from major oil price shocks while giving it significant market influence.
If the crisis persists, the global energy market risks fragmentation. Massive price hikes threaten import-dependent states, such as many European countries, while energy-autarkic nations retain pricing power and are largely shielded from extreme increases.
South Korea as a Special Case
Looking to Asia, South Korea is highly energy-dependent like Europe but boasts substantial refining capacity. Companies such as SK Energy, GS Caltex, or S-Oil typically operate on long-term supply contracts and fixed prices, while holding significant crude inventories that can be drawn down during a supply disruption.
The South Korean economy is temporarily insulated from a Hormuz blockade. Gas prices rose about 13 percent since the outbreak of the war, from €1.11 to €1.25 per liter – markedly less than in Germany.
Taxes and levies account for only around 40 percent of the retail gasoline price in South Korea, providing an advantage compared with Germany’s steadily rising mobility and energy taxes.
It may take up to three weeks for an oil shock to reach Korean gas stations. During this time, firms hedge currency and price risks on futures markets, operating largely in isolation. Refineries and storage practices act as an additional strategic oil reserve directly integrated into the processing of the economy’s key resource.
Politically, the government remains on alert. Seoul has so far refrained from temporary fuel tax cuts, a measure historically used to support the economy. Most recently, this occurred during the lockdown phase. This suggests that Korean authorities do not expect a prolonged conflict – and certainly not a ground invasion by U.S. or Israeli troops. Such a scenario would inevitably escalate, including on global commodity markets.
Crystal Ball Outlook
It is currently almost impossible to predict how the conflict will evolve. Regime change in Tehran appears to be neither a U.S. nor Israeli objective. Likewise, ground troop interventions remain highly unlikely, especially given the approaching midterms in the U.S.
This makes a short conflict duration likely. Strategic oil reserves in most EU countries cover roughly three months and have not yet been tapped. Despite rapid price increases, no acute supply shortages currently exist.
To relieve pressure at the pumps, fuel taxes would need to be cut. Yet it is unlikely that Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil will forgo the additional revenues generated by the temporary energy price spike.
Politically, the focus remains on optics: a gasoline price task force has been convened – a media maneuver during election season, a political chimera drawn reflexively from the government’s toolkit.
Structural solutions to Europe’s dangerous energy dependence would require a geopolitical reset, including a peace settlement with Russia, exploitation of domestic resources such as the continent’s immense gas reserves, and potentially a return to nuclear power in Germany.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
end
ITALY
KOLBE
Italy Challenges EU Carbon Market: Hidden Tax Driving Industry Abroad
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Italian weeks in Brussels: Just days after Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced a hardline migration policy, openly defying Brussels’ globalist open-border agenda, she delivered a second shock.
At the start of the week, Italy’s Industry Minister Adolfo Urso called for the suspension of EU-wide CO₂ trading—or at least a profound reform. Rome calls it a hidden tax and laments the growing displacement of Italian industrial companies to non-European locations. A conclusion that will sound all too familiar in Germany.
EU climate policy is artificially driving costs ever higher across the board. Companies able to operate flexibly are losing patience with this fanatical clientelist politics. Investments are redirected elsewhere, jobs relocated—while the taxes politicians desire are collected abroad. Yet even this argument seems to fall on deaf ears in European politics, as the European taxpayer remains a convenient source of revenue. Unlike mobile capital, citizens can’t easily move their wealth and property out of reach.
It is high time European leaders confront the European Commission and its grotesque degrowth fantasies. The so-called green transformation is under evident legitimacy pressure, now that it is clear that the “green Hesperia”—a realm where economic rules and logic are suspended—will never exist. Brussels’ attempt to build a power base with its own “green” industrial sector as an economic foundation increasingly looks like a project of power-obsessed dreamers, hung around the private sector’s neck like a millstone.
While Italy is drawing a clear line and trying to distance itself from Brussels’ industrial pillage, few in German politics seem seriously concerned that the CO₂ credit system channels real capital from productive sectors into an unproductive green patronage economy, while feeding the moral self-assurance of climate-policy snake-oil merchants.
What is sold as “transformation” is in truth a large-scale impoverishment program, eroding both the middle class and its civic values. Prosperity comes from commitment to achievement, individual sovereignty, and freedom. Only a civilization already damaged allows an unqualified political elite to centralize power.
The European carbon market is a centralized redistribution scheme, which next year will extend to transport and heating sectors. Brussels is pushing its reach ever deeper into European citizens’ daily lives. Costs will rise—this much is certain. And no Strait of Hormuz energy blockade is required; Europeans can achieve this on their own.
Even Friedrich Merz proved in February, on the Welt podcast with Robin Alexander and Dagmar Rosenfeld, that he belongs to the group of green statists. There, he defended the European CO₂ mechanism as an indispensable pillar of transformation policy, a great achievement of European convergence. Riding together into summer’s decline, together into insolvency—was that Merz’s real meaning? Is the Chancellor a romantic of decay?
Just days before, he sounded entirely different. At an employers’ meeting in Antwerp, Merz—almost toxically masculine, in line with Italy’s government—called for radical reform of the climate-policy carbon plunder. The contrast between the two appearances could hardly have been starker.
Yet after nearly a year observing the Chancellor’s public appearances, one knows: Merz’s shifts and volte-faces are no exception—they are part of his political camouflage. Performative acts, distraction techniques aimed squarely at stabilizing polling. In this respect, he is a classic politician, whose speech stream generates emotional connectivity—or: form trumps substance.
His green-moral compass, however, functions reliably. Regulatory reform will not come with this man in Germany—nor will a rollback of the green transformation mechanism. Loyal voters can be certain: the Chancellor will deliver this as surely as he performs his recurring obeisance to the Social Democratic junior partner.
More than two points underscore the political importance of carbon trading.
First, it provides Brussels’ central body with its own steadily growing revenue stream, disguised from open taxation. Brussels thus gains autonomy and additional leverage in struggles with centrifugal forces in the Union—such as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary or Giorgia Meloni’s Italy.
Second, it creates the green art-economy: a reliable voter base for the established party cartel. It funds the NGO complex and ensures the future growth of the bureaucratic apparatus.
It is therefore logical that the true initiators of the green transformation—found mainly in German politics—will cling to this tool until sufficient domestic pressure forces a reversal. Such pressure can ultimately come only from civil society and the economy itself.
The question is: when will Germany join an alliance for regulatory reform?
The answer may lie in the accounts, stock portfolios, real estate, and cash reserves of the German middle class. Here, politics has hidden the activatable sedative of its welfare state—a calming agent gradually fed into the redistribution mechanism to buy social peace on the road to the green ideal society.
*END
UK
Starmer’s Mandelson Mess Explodes: PM Knew About Epstein Friendship
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Another day, another layer peeled back from the rotten core of establishment cronyism, as Keir Starmer faces a torrent of revelations about his handling of Peter Mandelson’s Epstein ties. With payoffs, lies, and deep state cover-ups on full display, this saga underscores how globalist insiders protect their networks at the expense of transparency and justice.
From appointing a known Epstein associate to ambassador, to doling out taxpayer cash after the fallout, Starmer’s judgment reeks of the same elite impunity we’ve seen across the Atlantic. As freedom-loving Brits demand accountability, the PM’s crew scrambles to spin this as “process followed”—but the facts paint a picture of betrayal.
The storm hit new heights today with the release of vetting papers showing Lord Mandelson received a £75,000 payoff after being sacked as UK ambassador to the US over his enduring friendship with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Documents detail how Mandelson demanded over half a million pounds in compensation for losing his £161,000-a-year role. Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins justified the smaller package, writing: “This represents good value for money.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray signed off on it, stating he was “happy” to approve the payment, which included £34,000 in severance and cash in lieu of notice.
The papers confirm Starmer knew about Mandelson’s ongoing ties to Epstein when appointing him in December 2024. This comes amid a massive dump of Epstein’s emails by US authorities, exposing years of Mandelson’s communications with the financier.
Starmer only released the material after a Labour MP revolt forced his hand. Today, his chief minister Darren Jones handled the Commons statement, dodging a direct grilling for the PM.
The timeline of Mandelson’s Epstein links stretches back decades, riddled with leaked secrets and personal favors. In 2002, Mandelson attended a party at Epstein’s Manhattan home with other elite figures.
.com/DailyMail/status/2031734010565583230?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2031734010565583230%7Ctwgr%5E87479a20207cd831e6ded505b6948b94a709f815%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fstarmers-mandelson-mess-explodes-pm-knew-about-epstein-friendship
By 2003, Mandelson called Epstein his “best pal” in a message. Bank statements suggest Epstein paid £54,750 into accounts linked to Mandelson that year.
In 2006, as Florida police eyed Epstein for charges involving minors, Mandelson emailed: “I am here whenever you need.”
Even after Epstein’s 2008 conviction, Mandelson urged him to “fight for early release” via email. In 2009, while Epstein was jailed, Mandelson reportedly stayed at his Manhattan apartment.
Post-release, Epstein sent Mandelson’s husband Reinaldo Avila da Silva £10,000. Mandelson allegedly leaked a sensitive No10 document on £20 billion asset sales and Labour’s tax plans on June 13, 2009.
In 2010, he forwarded minutes from a meeting between Chancellor Alistair Darling and US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers just five minutes after receiving them, and tipped Epstein on a €500 billion EU bailout.
Contacts persisted until at least 2016, with Mandelson visiting Epstein’s New York mansion as late as 2013.
Starmer has since apologized for believing Mandelson’s “lies” about the relationship’s extent. He pledged “urgency and transparency” in disclosures.
Former No10 aide Nick Butler, whose memos Mandelson shared with Epstein, lamented: “I’m very sorry there’s been no note of contrition from Peter Mandelson to the people whose trust he broke.” He added: “For the system I think it will make people just wonder what people are doing with the information that they pass round.”
Mandelson was arrested February 23 on suspicion of misconduct in public office for passing sensitive info to Epstein while business secretary. He’s denied wrongdoing and remains under investigation.
This scandal echoes the ongoing Epstein probes we’ve covered, like police swarming his Zorro Ranch in search of strangled girls’ bodies, highlighting the grim underbelly of elite networks.
It also links to royal fallout, as King Charles reacted to brother Andrew’s arrest in the Epstein scandal, showing how these ties involve elite figures across borders.
The Mandelson files strip away the facade of accountability in Labour’s ranks, exposing how insiders like Starmer prioritize loyalty over integrity. As more documents drop, expect the web of deceit to unravel further.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
DEUTSCHE BANK/PRIVATE EQUITY
Deutsche Bank Dumps After Flagging $30 Billion Exposure To Private Credit
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 12:00 PM
Yet another canary in the ever growing coalmine that is private credit appeared this morning as Deustche Bank’s annual report flagged a significant €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers.
As the slow-motion train-wreck gathers steam (most recently with Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock gating investors in their private credit funds), investors are searching various financial entities balance sheets for exposures with the giant German lender itself warning:
“Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk.”
The report showed the private credit portfolio increased to €25.9 billion of loans at amortized cost, from €24.5 billion in 2024. Its loan exposure to the technology sector, including software, accounts for €15.8 billion at amortized cost, up from €11.7 billion.
Bloomberg reports that the lender said it is not exposed to “significant risks” related to non-bank financial institutions, but that it could face potential indirect risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties. While identifying private credit as a “key risk”, the report did not mention any losses or provisions tied to the private credit exposure, which represents about 5% of its loan book.
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the German firm is part of a group of lenders who, since last month, have been unable to sell about $1.2 billion of loans backing the acquisition of a software provider in a rare hung deal.
Deutsche Bank shares are down 8% on the day (the biggest drop since Liberation Day , last April) to their lowest since July 2025…
Finally, to really comprehend the scale of this crisis – which, for now, is being forced off the proverbial front-pages of market coverage by the impact of Trump’s Iran War – everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask is here… and remember, we’ve seen this pattern before…
Please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of a hat, t-shirt, or multitool. Thank you.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL, IRAN, ETC/RUSSIA
TBN ISRAEL LAST 24 HRS
ISRAEL VS IRAN
Lindsey Graham Threatens Gulf States With ‘Consequences’ if They Don’t Join the War Effort
by Armageddon Prose
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026 – 9:01
Originally published via Armageddon Prose:
(Barely) closeted power-bottom Lindsey Graham, who has suffered since adolescence from repressed homosexual urges that manifest in warped wargasms whenever he voyeuristically consumes scenes of state violence*, recently took to X to issue threats on behalf of the administration to Gulf States for their apparently insufficient enthusiasm for the war on Iran, warning of “consequences” if they don’t get on board.
(*Legal disclaimer: Allegedly “(barely) closeted power-bottom Lindsey Graham, who has suffered since adolescence from repressed homosexual urges that manifest in warped wargasms whenever he voyeuristically consumes scenes of state violence.”)
“The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as a part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has terrorized the region and killed 7 Americans.
Question – why should America do a defense agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?
Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions to dislodge the terrorist Iranian regime that threatens the region. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems to be issuing statements and doing things in the background that are marginally helpful, but unwilling to participate in military operations to end the reign of terror coming out of Iran. Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?
Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”
X post
Needless to say, issuing vague public threats to (theoretical, at least) allies on social media, whom you are trying to recruit as partners in a war effort, is no way to conduct proper diplomacy.
Lindsey should know better than anyone, given his alleged extensive dalliances with virile male staffers on The Hill over the years: you catch more flies with honey than vinegar.
That the administration allows this creature, without any public disavowal, to purport to speak for it by threatening ostensible allies with “consequences” when Trump’s own base loathes him is nothing short of political malfeasance.
Related: Schadenfreude: Watch Lindsey Graham Get Booed at Trump Rally in His Own State
Graham’s been front and center of late on the corporate media circuit, professing to speak in multiple appearances for the president and, by extension, the U.S. armed forces.
Here he is having one of his classic psychosexual, salivating squirts of murderous glee in a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo: “You just wait to see what comes in the next two weeks… We’re going to blow the hell out of these people. This regime is in a death throe now. It’s going to be on its knees.”
VIDEO
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[If you appreciate Armageddon Prose, please consider a $5/month or $50/year Substack subscription or a one-time digital “coffee” donation. For alternative means of patronage, email benbartee@protonmail.com.]
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Assuming the 70-year-old childless alleged power-bottom Lindsey Graham does, in fact, speak for the administration — a frightening prospect, indeed — not overplaying America’s geopolitical hand by underestimating the Gulf states’ leverage over the global economy would be well-advised.
The privileged status of the dollar as global reserve currency hinges on the trade of Gulf state oil in dollars — the so-called “petrodollar.”
Ron Paul recently outlined what even a brief lapse in oil production has done to global prices and prospects for the viability of the dollar — and that’s just the first-order effect in a global economy dependent on oil and a liberal order dependent on the trade of that oil in dollars.
Were the Saudis et al., in response to whatever “consequences” Lindsey Graham is alluding to here, inclined to really put the screws to the United States and stop trading their oil in dollars, that would potentially spell doom for the American currency and probably trigger a massive economic meltdown.
Related: Central Bank Gold Demand Hits Record High, U.S. Petrodollar on Deathbed?
Furthermore, the United States has expended a great deal of diplomatic capital over the years trying to stitch together the Abraham Accords, an agreement of the sort being the only way to ever deliver some semblance of lasting peace to a region where lasting peace has been in lamentably short supply.
Not that alleged power-bottom Lindsey Graham has much interest in peace, which doesn’t titillate him quite like death and destruction.
Benjamin Bartee, author of Broken English Teacher: Notes From Exile (now available in paperback), is an independent Bangkok-based American journalist with opposable thumbs.
end
WATCH: IDF strikes, destroys Hezbollah command centers, missile launchers
The strikes, which took place over the course of 30 minutes, targeted a Hezbollah intelligence headquarters, a headquarters of the terror group’s Radwan force, and other command centers.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4025896&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF strikes and destroys Hezbollah missile launchers in Lebanon on March 12, 2026. (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFMARCH 12, 2026 02:19
The IDF struck ten Hezbollah headquarters and command centers in the Dahieh region of Lebanon near Beirut overnight on Thursday.
The strikes, which took place over the course of 30 minutes, targeted the headquarters of Hezbollah intelligence and the terror group’s Radwan force, as well as other command centers.
The military also struck and destroyed dozens of missile launchers prepared to launch projectiles towards Israel, killing the Hezbollah terrorists operating the launchers.
The Israeli Air Force, guided by troops on the ground in Lebanon, struck over 20 additional targets.
This is a developing story.
end
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
Netanyahu aide warns Hezbollah: Dahiyeh will look like Gaza
Falk commented while discussing the war on Israel’s northern front, saying the Lebanese government should “take their country back” and disarm Hezbollah.
Smoke blankets the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh following Israeli air strikes on October 6, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon.(photo credit: CARL COURT/GETTY IMAGES)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFMARCH 12, 2026 14:13Updated: MARCH 12, 2026 14:26
Beirut’s Dahiyeh district could “look like Gaza” if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy adviser, Ophir Falk, warned in an interview with NBC News on Wednesday.
Falk commented while discussing the war on Israel’s northern front, saying the Lebanese government should “take their country back” and disarm Hezbollah. He argued that if Beirut could not do so, “somebody else needs to do it,” before delivering the interview’s sharpest line: “If Hezbollah makes the mistake of attacking us and continues attacking us, Dahiyeh is going to look like Gaza.”
Many view Dahiyeh, located in Beirut’s southern suburbs, as a stronghold of Hezbollah.
Former pro-Palestinian activist from Stanford explains why she left the movement
The interview focused mainly on Iran, where Falk said Israel’s objective was to remove what he called the “existential threat” posed by the ayatollah regime. According to the transcript, he said that the goal could be achieved either by bringing down the regime or by destroying its capabilities to the point that it could no longer threaten Israel.
Israel warns Hezbollah over attacks from Beirut
Falk also rejected the idea that Israel had pulled the US into the war, saying President Donald Trump made his own decision “for the good of the American people and for the free world.” He described the conflict as a “just war” and said Iran had posed an imminent threat to Israel, the US, and the broader region, according to the transcript you provided.
Pressed repeatedly on what made that threat imminent, Falk pointed to Iran’s long-standing rhetoric, its ballistic missile program, and what he described as deceptive conduct in negotiations. When asked whether Iran was weeks away from a nuclear weapon, Falk did not give a firm timeline, saying he did not know whether it was “weeks or months,” but insisted the danger was immediate.
The broad message from Falk was that Israel sees the Iran and Hezbollah fronts as part of the same strategic fight: weaken Tehran, destroy hostile capabilities, and warn neighboring actors that continued attacks will bring a far harsher Israeli response.
END
HEZBOLLAH VS ISRAEL
‘We can’t hold out much longer’: Kiryat Shmona mayor speaks on persistent Hezbollah border threat
Stern made a direct appeal to decision-makers in Jerusalem, urging them to reach a permanent resolution to eliminate the security threat.
SOLDIERS ARRIVE at the scene where a missile fired from Lebanon struck a home in Kiryat Shmona last November.(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)By103FMMARCH 11, 2026 17:11Updated: MARCH 11, 2026 17:17
Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern outlined the harsh reality that the city’s residents have faced since Hezbollah entered the current conflict between Israel and Iran, and expressed their hope that the security threat would be completely eradicated.
Many of the city’s residents who have chosen to stay in their homes are dealing with an especially challenging daily existence, he explained.
“Those who are here and chose to stay here have been living for 11 days underground – I don’t think it’s possible to hold on much longer like this – in shared shelters, with children,” said Stern in a Wednesday morning interview with Israeli radio station 103FM.
/
However, he noted that formally evacuating the city’s residents is not necessarily the right solution, especially since the current warfront is not confined to the northern region.
“We see that the front is across the entire country. [But] there are certain populations with particular needs that take time, who have no protection. At least those people, I would like to see in a safer area, and I’m considering evacuating them from the city.”
A call for a decisive move against Hezbollah
Stern made a direct appeal to decision-makers in Jerusalem, urging them to reach a permanent resolution to eliminate the security threat. “I have one request: Finish this as quickly as possible. Not to end the war, but to end Hezbollah. You cannot keep children home from school [indefinitely], and every minute without frameworks creates very dangerous gaps for the future of our education system.”
He also highlighted the ongoing tension in Kiryat Shmona, particularly at night, when the sounds of Israeli strikes are clearly audible in the city. “Even without sirens, you can clearly hear our forces’ strikes. We’ve been without sleep for 11 days, but nevertheless, the residents of Kiryat Shmona are resilient and strong. We are ready to hold out and give all the necessary support.”
Criticism of the guidelines and reality on the ground
Stern addressed the complex security reality residents are living with, pointing out the gap between the guidelines provided and the actual situation on the ground.
“Many times there’s a boom, and only later is there a siren, and even with 15 seconds, you try and reach a protected area in 15 seconds!” he said.
He also expressed concern about the guidelines for reopening businesses in the area, which have raised many questions among residents. “The Home Front Command’s guidelines … expect businesses to open as usual. This raises the question of whether all this is being done to save the [economy]. It’s a fiction – businesses still haven’t recovered from the last war, and besides risking themselves and their customers, I don’t understand what the logic is behind the decision-making.”
‘We don’t want to feel like suckers’
Stern stressed that residents of the north have long supported the security forces and the government, but now they expect meaningful change in the security situation.
“We don’t want to feel like suckers. We supported the war effort for a year and a half…because they promised us a different reality.”
“I trust our security forces,” Stern said, “but they promised us that Hezbollah would not make it south of the Litani River, that the threat of invasion is gone, and that the threat of anti-tank missiles has been removed.
“In reality, we are seeing fierce battles here across the border, and we are seeing anti-tank missile hits. Who is shooting at us if Hezbollah is not south of the Litani River?”
Hezbollah still a significant threat
Stern further noted that even after strikes against Hezbollah’s leadership, the organization continues to pose a serious threat.
“An organization that is beaten, battered, and weak does not manage to launch rockets to Haifa and Tel Aviv. Nasrallah has been eliminated, and the organization’s senior officials have been eliminated, but Hezbollah knows how to recover very quickly.”
end
HEZBOLLAH VS ISRAEL
Hezbollah fires 200 rockets at north, Iran launches missiles in ‘integrated operation’
Two people lightly hurt in Lebanese terror group’s largest attack of war; IDF pounds Hezbollah bastion in Beirut as Israeli official warns sides ‘headed toward serious escalation’
By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Lazar Berman Follow
and AgenciesToday, 12:46 amUpdated at 9:09 am
People inspect homes damaged by a rocket fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon, in Haniel in central Israel, March 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)
Lebanese terror group Hezbollah blasted some 200 rockets and 20 drones at northern Israel for hours on Wednesday evening, repeatedly sending hundreds of thousands of Israelis to shelters.
Two people were lightly injured in northern Israel. A house was destroyed by a direct missile hit in Moshav Haniel, in central Israel. An elderly woman and her Filipino caregiver were in the safe room of the home, and emerged unscathed
The onslaught marked the largest Hezbollah attack on Israel since hostilities intensified last week, as the terror group began attacks to support its sponsor, Iran, which is under intense attack from a joint US-Israel air campaign that began on February 28. Israeli strikes, meanwhile, continued in Beirut and beyond, with Lebanese sources reporting casualties in multiple areas.Promoted: C
ChaiFlicks – Streaming Jewish stories from around the WorldKeep Watching
An opening salvo of 100 rockets was launched from Lebanon around 8 p.m. just as a missile from Iran targeted the central region of the country, in what Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said was a coordinated attack. More Iranian missiles targeted the north and south of the country.
The Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted by air defenses, which also worked to thwart the Hezbollah attacks. However, several impacts were reported, causing fires, and two people were lightly injured.
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The Magen David Adom ambulance service said the two, a 35-year-old woman and a man in his 50s, were hit by “flying objects” following impacts. They were taken to a hospital.
According to rescue services, a rocket that struck a home in the northern town of Bi’ina injured one of the two victims. Four others were treated for acute anxiety at the scene.
As the Israel Defense Forces instructed residents of the north to stay close to shelters, Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones, with sirens set off across the Galilee and in Haifa as well as in communities up to 50 kilometers from the border with Lebanon.
In all, the terror group fired some 200 rockets at the north over the course of several hours, according to IDF assessments. Not all of the rockets crossed the border into Israel.
The attacks continued into early Thursday, with suspected drone infiltration and rocket alerts sounding in Nahariya and a number of Western Galilee communities, as well as Acre and some of Haifa’s northern suburbs. Hezbollah also fired long-range rockets, setting off sirens in Tel Aviv and surrounding towns, amid which the IDF announced the detection of Iranian ballistic missiles, which triggered alerts in central Israel, the Jerusalem area, north, and parts of the south.
Some of the projectiles were intercepted, according to initial military assessments. Fragments following the interceptions also reportedly fell in several areas.
Emergency forces reported damage was caused by an impact in central Israel, with a home in Moshav Haniel directly struck and largely destroyed, and other buildings sustained damage. An elderly woman and her Filipino caregiver were in the safe room of the home and were unharmed.
IRAN VS USA
Iran .. many plans and it is about dollar control
Several days ag I wrote about the US objective was dollar pricing of oil not the overthrow of Iran pushed. While this is contrary to the NEOCON belief that Trump is doing their bidding or allegedly acting on behalf of Israel there is a simple reality that overshadows all else. In order for HEGEMONY to exist in the world for America the use of dollar settlements needs to be paramount in the pricing and payment for oil. Without this America loses the one stabilizing element that has allowed its’ standing amongst world countries. And yes when troops go in it is because US MILITARY is the ENFORCEMENT COP to ensure dollar settlement needs. It is also why London based Insurers have been side lined as that wealth will in the future be redirected to America with the US navy as the back up for safety. Yes, the Insurers are pissed.
It is why rumbling of sanctions being lowered upon Russia are in the news. It is about the currency of settlement more than production.
We need to remember that Iran like many countries in the middle east is a tribal affair.
Khuzestan is the province that produces the MAJORITY of Iran’s oil, is one such province out of the 31 autonomous ones within Iran. As the economic lifeline of the ENTIRE Islamic Republic, it is also why Trump told Israel to stop hitting oil facilities within Iran. And why Kharg island remains untouched. IT IS ABOUT OIL CONTROL AND PAYMENT SETTLEMENT.
The tribes have just declared:
– They REJECT the Islamic Republic
– They demand a secular, democratic Iran
– They want their fair share of oil revenues
– They affirm national unity — this isn’t separatism. This is regime rejection.
Do you understand what that means?
Iran is being bombed from the OUTSIDE. And now the people who sit on top of Iran’s oil are turning against the regime from the INSIDE. The deal was made some time ago as to how to split up Iran since a military campaign would be a loser.
No oil = no money.
No money = no war machine.
No war machine = no regime.
They’re showing you the airstrikes. They’re NOT showing you this. And yes the US will deduct nuclear material and the whole and no doubt dearly would like access to the hypersonic technology that has been developed.
Khuzestan province contains approximately 80% to 85% of Iran’s onshore oil reserves and serves as the primary hub for the country’s oil production. The region is responsible for over 80% of Iran’s total oil production and houses roughly 60% of its natural gas reserves.
The war isn’t going to be won by bombs. It’s going to be won by the people Iran has been oppressing for decades — who just decided they’ve had ENOUGH.
Iran’s collapse won’t come from the sky. It’ll come from Khuzestan. It began with this declaration.
Watch!
end
IRAN/USA
Tehran Denies Mining Hormuz, But Says War Isn’t Ending Soon
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 09:40 AM
Summary:
- Oil pares gains after report that Iran lets some ships cross strait, denies mining Hormuz
- Bloomberg: Trump admin set to temporarily suspend Jones Act shipping rules to help cool rising oil prices.
- Ayatollah Mojtaba in first public message says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be continued as a tool to pressure the enemy
- Mojtaba vows to keep attacking US bases, and signals ‘new fronts’ could soon open
- President Trump simultaneously says the US is stopping Iran “from having Nuclear weapons” and “destroying” the Middle East and “the World”.
- Shipping turmoil escalates as multiple vessels (at least six) struck overnight
- Brent crude oil prices top $100 amid “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA reports.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as military assets remain focused on degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities.
- Dubai suffers significant drone attacks
- Northern Israel hammered by Hezbollah, “largest wave” of missiles since war began
- IDF says it struck key Iranian nuclear development site
- US Intel assesses Iranian regime remains intact
- Oman port operations halted
- Trump proclaims “we won”
* * *
Update(1205ET): Some fresh development impacting closely watched oil prices:
OIL PARES GAINS AFTER REPORT IRAN LETS SOME SHIPS CROSS STRAIT
IRAN ALLOWED SOME SHIPS TO CROSS STRAIT, DEPUTY FM SAYS: AFP
IRAN DEPUTY FM SAYS NOT LAYING MINES IN HORMUZ STRAIT: AFP
IRAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER TAKHT-RAVANCHI SPEAKS TO AFP
Reuters reports say at least a dozen explosive mines have been put in shipping lanes. As for Iran’s denial, this doesn’t mean the war shows signs of immediately stoppage, instead per the AFP:
Iran wants to ensure that a war will not be imposed again on it in the future, deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told AFP, as the conflict raged with the United States and Israel. “We want to see that war is not going to be imposed again on Iran,” said Takht-Ravanchi in an interview in Tehran.
“When the war started last June, after 12 days there was so called cessation of hostilities… but after eight or nine months, they regrouped and they did it again.“
* * *
SPAIN/USA ISRAEL
Spain yanks its ambassador to Israel amid Iran conflict
The country declined to permit the U.S. to use its bases for strikes on Iran, leading President Donald Trump to declare a trade embargo against Madrid.
Spain permanently recalled its ambassador to Israel this week amid a standoff between Madrid and Jerusalem over the Iran War.
The Spanish ambassador was recalled in September, according to the Times of Israel. This week’s announcement makes the withdrawal permanent. The Spanish embassy will fall under the purview of what the Foreign Ministry called a “chargé d’affaires.”
Spain did not formally recognize Israel until 1986, making it one of the last western countries to do so. Madrid has typically ranked among the European governments most critical of Israel and Zionism overall.
The country declined to permit the U.S. to use its bases for strikes on Iran, leading President Donald Trump to declare a trade embargo against Madrid.
Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.
END
FROM INSIDE IRAN
(courtesy Robert H)
A close friend here in Tehran fought through a thousand layers of this digital blackout just to get a message to me.
I am putting it here so the diaspora and the Western pundits can look it in the eye.
They said: ‘When I finally break through the blackout, I am greeted by people sitting safely outside, preaching their ‘anti-war’ worries. They cannot fathom that the mullahs slaughtered 40,000 of us in two days. We are being psychologically tortured by their moral grandstanding.
Those of us inside this cage know that cutting out a cancer is going to hurt. We are willing to take that pain, because it is better to die once than to be tortured every single day. If this war stops and the regime survives, we are all dead anyway our execution dates just get moved up.
From the Massacre of January until the first bombs fell, I cried every single day. When the strikes started, I was finally happy. But reading these ‘anti-war’ takes physically crushes me. It feels like a 100-kilo weight on my chest. It feels like these safe, comfortable people are grabbing me by the arms and handing me directly to the Islamic Republic to be raped.
We are embracing the fire and the fear because this is our last chance to end the nightmare. And yet, your ‘peace’ posts multiply our terror a hundred thousand times over.’
Hear us clearly. Silence the cowards who speak against this rescue mission. Every time you preach ‘peace’ while we are locked in with our butchers, you are pouring water directly into the regime’s mill.
RUSSIA
what took the west so long to realize this;
(zerohedge)
In From The Cold Already: Putin Envoy Met With US Team On Energy Markets Crisis
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 11:30 AM
With the globe’s attention focused on the now almost two week long ongoing Iran war, Moscow is busy in the sidelines making strides to improve bilateral relations with the United States, while demonstrating how vital Russia is to global energy markets.
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s directly appointed special envoy, held a meeting in the US “with the heads of the working group on economic cooperation between Russia and the United States,” according to his Telegram statement and fresh reporting in Bloomberg.
Dmitriev and US officials discussed “promising projects that could contribute to the restoration of Russian-American relations, as well as the current crisis in global energy markets” – according to the top Kremlin official’s statement.
The US-Russia meeting comes on the heels of Washington having declared a temporary ease in targeted energy sanctions earlier in the Iran conflict, allowing India to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea.
The US Treasury Department Secretary described the one-month waiver as a “deliberate short-term measure” to allow oil to keep flowing in the global market, in an effort to free up millions of barrels of oil and gas stuck in transit near the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing blockage of the strait impacts nearly half of all Indian oil and gas imports. Meanwhile, overnight Reuters has reported that “Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say.”
Amid the energy market mayhem and deep uncertainly, Dmitriev is offering Russia as a key partner in stabilizing the energy crisis:
“Many countries, especially the United States, are beginning to better understand the key, systemically important role of Russian oil and gas in ensuring global economic stability, as well as the ineffectiveness and destructive nature of sanctions against Russia,” Dmitriev stated.
With the Iran war and energy in the foreground, the over four-year long Russia-Ukraine war has largely receded into the background, in terms of global media coverage.
Moscow likely sees this as a great advantage – no longer facing the same avalanche of pressure and daily Washington condemnation. Now, it’s more likely to be that the Trump administration needs Russia if it hopes to manage oil prices and the fallout from Trump’s Iran gambit.
Dmitriev has also recently stated that everything happening with oil prices demonstrates that “sanctions do not work and are counterproductive.“
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
| Governor Shapiro Faces Lawsuit Over Land Dispute with NeighborsNeighbors of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have launched a lawsuit, claiming he is unlawfully encroaching on their property. The conflict has intensified following Shapiro’s attempts to secure land for a fence amid security concerns.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Honduran Immigrant Arrested for Assaulting Subway Riders, Veteran Severely InjuredA 34-year-old Honduran immigrant has been charged after violently pushing two men onto subway tracks, leaving an 83-year-old Air Force veteran in critical condition. The surge in subway violence has alarmed many commuters.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Indicates Possible Conclusion to Iran Conflict in Recent InterviewIn a recent interview, President Trump hinted that the ongoing conflict with Iran could soon end, citing swift progress in military operations. He emphasized that the timeline for cessation is largely within his control.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump’s Esteemed Nominee Withdraws Amid RINO OppositionJeremy Carl, nominated by Trump for a key State Department role, withdrew after facing bipartisan resistance over his controversial comments. His departure highlights the challenges posed by dissent within GOP ranks.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Gene Simmons Issues Blunt Warning to Hollywood About Political CommentaryGene Simmons from KISS didn’t hold back in addressing Hollywood’s political commentary, urging actors like Ben Stiller to remain silent about their views on national issues. His message emphasized the disconnect between celebrity lifestyles and everyday American struggles.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
“Risk Of Attack Is Too High”: US Navy Refuses To Provide Escorts To Ships Transiting Hormuz Strait
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026 – 04:25 PM
One week after Trump announced that the US would cover insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and would provide them with US navy escorts, Reuters reports that the US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now.
The U.S. Navy has held regular briefings with shipping and oil industry counterparts and has said during those briefings it is unable to provide escorts for the time being, three unnamed shipping industry sources told Reuters. They added that the shipping industry has been making requests almost daily during the calls for naval escorts through the strait. One of the sources said the Navy’s assessment during Tuesday’s briefing had not changed and that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced, which judging by images like the one below of a container ship in the Gulf today won’t happen any time soon.
The Navy’s assessments spell continued disruption to Middle East oil exports and reflect a stark divergence from President Donald Trump’s statements that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway.
Shipping along the narrow strait has all but halted since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran more than a week ago, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world’s oil supply and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022. Some ships – mostly Iranian VLCCs and Chinese tankers carrying embargoed products – have resumed transits with Iran vowing it would only attack western-linked ships, we reported earlier.
The status quo may soon change, however: on Tuesday General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the US military has started looking at options to potentially escort ships through the strait, should it be ordered to do so. “We’re looking at a range of options there,” Caine told reporters at the Pentagon.
A U.S. official told Reuters the U.S. military has not yet escorted any commercial ships through the strait. Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright deleted a post on X in which he said the Navy had successfully escorted one through.
While there have been some voyages through the waterway in recent days, the majority of shipping traffic remains on hold with hundreds of ships anchored.
Meanwhile, Trump has said repeatedly in recent days that the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary.
“When the time comes, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait, if needed. I hope it’s not going to be needed, but if it’s needed, we’ll escort them right through,” he said on Monday during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
For its part, Iran remains adamant: a senior official with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said the strait is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported last week. Several ships have already been hit.
Indeed, earlier in the day, a Thai ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree, was struck by projectiles while travelling about 18km north of Oman.
Never afraid of wading neck-deep in irony, just a few hours after photos of the latest ship to be attacked in the SoH circled the globe, Trump said “you can see great safety in the Strait of Hormuz“, when asked how he’s going to ensure the safety of oil following through it.
When asked by a reporter if Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, “we don’t think so,” President Trump replied, all signs to the contrary.
end
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
2 oil tankers trucker: oil skyrockets!
Oil Prices Jump, Stocks Dump As 2 Oil Tankers Explode In Persian Gulf, Hezbollah Hits Israel With Largest Missile Attack Of War
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026 – 07:00 PM
Top headlines of conflict
- Oil prices surge as two oil tankers are attacked and explode in Iraqi waters
- ‘Largest wave of missiles since hostilities began’ launched into northern Israel by Hezbollah
- The US Navy said it was ‘too dangerous’ to escort tankers through still.
- President of Iran demands reparations and guarantees against future aggression.
- Trump says the war with Iran will end soon, as there is ‘practically nothing left to target.”
- Yet U.S. and Israeli officials plan at least two more weeks of strikes
- U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran’s drone production has been significantly degraded.
- The IEA is preparing its largest-ever emergency crude oil release to counter surging Brent and WTI prices.
- Casualty estimates: over 1,200 killed in Iran from U.S./Israeli strikes (plus civilian reports), 13 deaths in Israel from Iranian retaliation, and 140 U.S. service members wounded (mostly minor).
* * *
Update (1850ET): As night fell across the Middle East, Hezbollah launched a huge wave of at least 150 rockets rained down on northern Israel (Times Of Israel):
Lebanese terror group Hezbollah showered rockets and drones at northern Israel for hours, repeatedly sending hundreds of thousands of Israelis to shelters on Wednesday evening.
It marked the largest Hezbollah attack on Israel since hostilities intensified earlier this month, as the terror group began attacks to support its sponsor, Iran, which is under intense attack from a joint US-Israel air campaign that began on February 28.
An opening salvo of 100 rockets was launched around 8 p.m. as a missile from Iran targeted the central region of the country, in what Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said was a coordinated attack. More Iranian missiles targeted the north and south of the country.
This was followed by reports that two oil tankers have been hit by ‘explosive boats’ and were on fire in the Persian Gulf…
Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil have been subjected to unidentified attacks within Iraqi territorial waters, causing both vessels to catch fire, according to security sources cited by Baghdad Today on March 12 (bna IntelliNews).
The attack occurred in the waiting area near the Khor Abdullah waterway, approximately 11 miles from the export port caused a fire on the tanker, leading to significant damage to its structure.
According to an Iraqi port official speaking to the Reuters news agency, authorities have successfully evacuated 25 crew members from the two ships. Despite these efforts, the fires have remained ablaze on both vessels.
One tanker, which was flying a foreign flag, is believed to be American, though its specific nationality has not been confirmed. The attack took place within Iraq’s territorial waters, but no group has claimed responsibility for the incident.
It turns out that perhaps the area is not as “safe” as President Trump said it was. And as a reminder, the US Navy already said it was ‘too dangerous’ to escort tankers through still.
Oil prices are surging higher on the news with WTI back above $91 – now up on the week and 20% higher than yesterday’s lows…
Stocks tumbled back to the lows of the day…
Equities decoupled into the close from oil and bonds… the tanker explosion has recoupled that hopeful mistake…
Shortly after the spike in crude oil, the US Department of Energy sent out the following statement:
- UNITED STATES TO RELEASE 172 MLN BARRELS OF OIL FROM STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE – DOE
…clearly damage control to tamp down the fire underneath oil prices that are once again out of control.
Other notable headlines of the day:
*Overnight: Hegseth proclaiming the day saw “most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes” of the war yet – sending prices higher
IEA MEMBERS AGREE OIL STOCKPILE RELEASE OF 400M BARRELS – quick dip and then rip higher in oil prices
*TRUMP: US TOOK OUT JUST ABOUT ALL OF IRAN’S MINE SHIPS – oil reversed lower
*TRUMP: OIL COMPANIES SHOULD USE STRAIT OF HORMUZ – extended drop
*TRUMP PROMISES ‘GREAT SAFETY’ FOR OIL TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ – further drop
* * *
Update (1012ET): President Trump on Wednesday said that the war with Iran will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.”
“Little this and that… Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump told Axios during a five-minute phone call, adding “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period.”
“They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy,” Trump said.
So, Mission Almost Accomplished™ after the Trump administration has given estimates ranging from weeks to months for how long this might take.
Yet while Trump is signaling that the operation has largely accomplished its objectives, US and Israeli officials say there’s been no indication of when fighting might stop. As Axios notes further, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that fighting will continue “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign.” Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials say they’re preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran.
END
THURSDAY MORNING
Sixth Ship Struck: Oil Tops $100 As Tanker Attacks Escalate Hours After Trump’s “We Won”
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Summary
- Shipping turmoil escalates as multiple vessels (at least six) struck overnight
- Brent crude oil prices top $100 amid “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA reports.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as military assets remain focused on degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities.
- Dubai suffers significant drone attacks
- Northern Israel hammered by Hezbollah, “largest wave” of missiles since war began
- IDF says it struck key Iranian nuclear development site
- US Intel assesses Iranian regime remains intact
- Oman port operations halted
- Trump proclaims “we won”
* * *
Brent crude futures in Asian trading jumped above $101/bbl overnight, despite news of a planned record emergency SPR release by the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries, in an effort aimed at capping triple-digit oil prices.
Today’s focus is on reports that IRGC forces struck two foreign oil tankers in the Gulf area, bringing the total to six vessels hit over the past 24 hours. Iranian kamikaze drones also struck an energy export hub in Oman, while IRGC naval mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz soared by midweek.
The Wall Street Journal reported that two oil tankers were struck in Iraqi waters. The U.K. maritime security agency UKMTO also said a containership was hit off the coast of Dubai, adding to earlier reports that three cargo vessels were struck around the Strait of Hormuz area. Also worth recalling is the dramatic video from yesterday showing an IRGC drone slamming into a critical tank farm in Oman.
The market reaction to the overnight hostilities, as Operation Epic Fury rages on this week and IRGC forces lob missiles and bombs at Gulf states, was a surge in Brent crude futures to the $101 handle.
The insane videos of tanker attacks just keep coming…
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky on the overnight energy market moves:
A series of attacks across the Gulf has sent oil up nearly another 10% (fading to up 5%), with Brent back briefly through the $100 level. The move in products looks even more acute, with distillates leading. Quite telling yesterday that, after yet another Whitehouse jawbone and the IEA’s record reserve release announcement, oil still failed to come in meaningfully. Overnight Reuters reported, “Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say” … if that is confirmed it’s not quickly reversible.
Goldman expects longer disruptions on the Hormuz chokepoint:
Here’s where things get even more complicated: Six commercial vessels and oil infrastructure in the Gulf area were hit in IRGC strikes, and attention is now shifting to another critical maritime chokepoint.
Overnight, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency warned that the Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could move to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
The overnight chaos sent Brent crude back over $101/bbl, but it has since fallen to $96/bbl by 0630 ET. This comes after the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed on a “record” 400 million barrel release to cap energy prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the U.S. will contribute 172 million barrels. As we explained to readers on Wednesday, this SPR dump is likely to have only a minimal impact.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump told supporters in Kentucky last night that Operation Epic Fury was effectively over almost as soon as it began. “It’s just a question of when—when do we stop?” he said.
“Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won,” Trump said.
He added, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job.”
It is clear that U.S.-Israeli operations have dealt a major blow to the IRGC’s conventional military capabilities, but the lingering threat will be asymmetric warfare, including drone attacks, naval mines, the potential sabotage of undersea cables, and a wide range of other low-cost, high-disruption weapons.
What’s important from the overnight (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Energy Market
- The Iran war is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger share of exports
- Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel as Iran escalated attacks on Dubai and shipping assets
- IEA members agreed to release an unprecedented 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to calm the market
IRGC Military Actions
- Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai with missile alerts and a drone that fell on a building in Creek Harbour on Wednesday night
- Iran says it maintains control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and claims it carried out strikes on Israeli military and intelligence facilities
- Iran’s military announced the policy of reciprocal strikes has ended, stating, ‘from now on, our policy will be strike after strike’
- More than 2,100 Shahed-136 weapons have been fired so far, damaging oil infrastructure, shutting airports and destroying military hardware
US Security Warnings
- The US State Department warned that Iran and affiliated groups could be planning attacks on oil infrastructure owned by the United States in Iraq
- US Central Command warned that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military operations, making them legitimate targets
- California Governor Newsom said he’s aware of potential drone strikes in California after FBI warnings that Iran has allegedly considered launching offensive drones against the West Coast
Economic Impact
- Goldman Sachs and Citigroup told staffers in Dubai to stay away from their offices amid Iran threats
- On the Beach suspended its full-year guidance due to a ‘significant slowdown’ in demand following the Middle East conflict, with shares dropping as much as 15%
- Chinese oil refiners have begun canceling agreed refined fuel export cargoes as Beijing tightens curbs to cope with the war’s impact
Diplomatic Developments
- Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future
- A former IRGC chief said Iran would agree to no ceasefire until the country reaches a ‘definite outcome’
- The UN Security Council approved a resolution condemning Iran’s attacks on its Gulf neighbors including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Jordan
Related energy market reads:
- Oil “VIX” At 121 — Markets Aren’t Pricing De-Escalation
- Oil Volatility Is Exploding — And Something Is Starting To Break
- IEA Agrees To Release Record 400 Million Barrels From Emergency Stockpiles: Here’s Why This Will Have Little Impact
Is it too early for Trump to be calling a “win” when asymmetric warfare is still a very big threat and will be lingering for many weeks, if not months? As one pundit has pointed out: “Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore.”
END
THURSDAY MORNING
Iran May Let Indian Tankers Through Hormuz Strait, Reports Of High-Level Talks
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 08:40 AM
First it was China, now an India exception?
Bloomberg reports another major potential exception Tehran could make for Strait of Hormuz oil transit. “India is in talks with Iran to secure the safe passage of more than 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter,” a Thursday morning report indicates.
“Negotiations are still ongoing and are being handled by the ministry of foreign affairs, said the people, who asked not to be named as the conversations are sensitive,” Bloomberg continues. “The narrow waterway, through which around a fifth of the world’s crude typically flows, has been effectively closed since the start of the war in the Persian Gulf.”
However, Reuters has separately cited an Iranian source to say no such agreement has been made for safe passage of Indian vessels.
India ranks as third among the world’s top crude importers, with China at the top. New Delhi gets some 40% of all its global imports from the Mideast and based on transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.
Since the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury began, maritime monitors have noticed that China-owned tankers, or at least ones signaling their China links, appeared to have been given free and safe passage – not coming under Iranian attack. Also, one report this week notes:
Iran has continued to send large amounts of crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz to China even as the war between U.S.-Israel and Iran has jeopardized broader supplies through the critical waterway.
Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, told CNBC on Tuesday.
But now Indian tankers laden with crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas – all stuck in regional waters amid the broader international backlog of ships too afraid to make the passage, especially now that the Iranians are reportedly laying explosive mines in the narrow water lanes – are hoping their own government could get a ‘pass’ akin to what some Chinese tankers appear to be enjoying.
Such was also the case in the Red Sea, with the past two years of the Houthi war on global shipping, which the US Navy ultimately could not thwart at the time – despite some significant engagements and bombing campaigns: Chinese and Russian vessels were declared by the Iran-linked Houthis to be safe.
Meanwhile, of the jagged, mountainous coastline from which the Iranians can easily fire on the strait:
It remains too early to say whether a similar deal might be unfolding with the Islamic Republic in Hormuz, but one source notes that “The Economic Times, an Indian outlet, reported on Thursday that Iran had allowed two India-flagged tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz after the Indian and Iranian foreign ministers held a telephone conversation to discuss keeping the route open for Indian vessels.”
As a reminder the IEA said in a Thursday report, “The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
END
New Ayatollah’s First Message: Hormuz Strait Stays Closed, Warns ‘More Fronts’ Could Open
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 09:40 AM
Summary:
- Ayatollah Mojtaba in first public message says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be continued as a tool to pressure the enemy
- Mojtaba vows to keep attacking US bases, and signals ‘new fronts’ could soon open
- President Trump simultaneously says the US is stopping Iran “from having Nuclear weapons” and “destroying” the Middle East and “the World”.
- Shipping turmoil escalates as multiple vessels (at least six) struck overnight
- Brent crude oil prices top $100 amid “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA reports.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as military assets remain focused on degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities.
- Dubai suffers significant drone attacks
- Northern Israel hammered by Hezbollah, “largest wave” of missiles since war began
- IDF says it struck key Iranian nuclear development site
- US Intel assesses Iranian regime remains intact
- Oman port operations halted
- Trump proclaims “we won”
* * *
Update(0940ET): Coming near in time to each other Thursday morning, President Trump and Iran’s Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued public statements. This marks the first public statement by supreme leader Mojtaba since replacing his slain father. The statement has been posted to Iranian state TV sources, and below are the most crucial remarks.
Mojtaba says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be continued as a tool to pressure the enemy. He additionally states that “all US bases should immediately be closed in the region and those bases should be attacked.” Indeed these attacks have been ongoing this week, as the cross Gulf drone and missile strikes continue, also reportedly most recently in northern Iraq, and around Erbil. On the question of base attacks, he claimed that Iran “only” targets military bases and sites, and says this will continue. However, he did try to assure angry Gulf neighbors, who have been pummeled by Iranian missiles and drones for close to two weeks now, that Iran believes in “friendship with our neighbors”. The message further praises ‘martyrs’ of the Islamic Republic and is one that emphasizes Iran is not backing down, despite the immense daily US-Israeli bombings. He also ‘thanked’ regional militias for their ‘support’ – at a moment Shia Iraq militant groups are said to be launching strikes on US targets inside neighboring Iraq. Ominously, the new Ayatollah is warning of opening “other fronts”.
As for President Trump, he’s still seeking to try and calm global oil prices, posting “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping an evil Empire, Iran.” This once again echoes lines from the Bush era war in Iraq. He also said he’s stopping Iran “from having Nuclear weapons” and “destroying” the Middle East and “the World”.
WTI Crude as the rival messages went out almost simultaneously:
* * *
Brent crude futures in Asian trading jumped above $101/bbl overnight, despite news of a planned record emergency SPR release by the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries, in an effort aimed at capping triple-digit oil prices.
Today’s focus is on reports that IRGC forces struck two foreign oil tankers in the Gulf area, bringing the total to six vessels hit over the past 24 hours. Iranian kamikaze drones also struck an energy export hub in Oman, while IRGC naval mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz soared by midweek.
The Wall Street Journal reported that two oil tankers were struck in Iraqi waters. The U.K. maritime security agency UKMTO also said a containership was hit off the coast of Dubai, adding to earlier reports that three cargo vessels were struck around the Strait of Hormuz area. Also worth recalling is the dramatic video from yesterday showing an IRGC drone slamming into a critical tank farm in Oman.
The market reaction to the overnight hostilities, as Operation Epic Fury rages on this week and IRGC forces lob missiles and bombs at Gulf states, was a surge in Brent crude futures to the $101 handle.
The insane videos of tanker attacks just keep coming…
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky on the overnight energy market moves:
A series of attacks across the Gulf has sent oil up nearly another 10% (fading to up 5%), with Brent back briefly through the $100 level. The move in products looks even more acute, with distillates leading. Quite telling yesterday that, after yet another Whitehouse jawbone and the IEA’s record reserve release announcement, oil still failed to come in meaningfully. Overnight Reuters reported, “Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say” … if that is confirmed it’s not quickly reversible.
Goldman expects longer disruptions on the Hormuz chokepoint:
Here’s where things get even more complicated: Six commercial vessels and oil infrastructure in the Gulf area were hit in IRGC strikes, and attention is now shifting to another critical maritime chokepoint.
Overnight, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency warned that the Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could move to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
The overnight chaos sent Brent crude back over $101/bbl, but it has since fallen to $96/bbl by 0630 ET. This comes after the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed on a “record” 400 million barrel release to cap energy prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the U.S. will contribute 172 million barrels. As we explained to readers on Wednesday, this SPR dump is likely to have only a minimal impact.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump told supporters in Kentucky last night that Operation Epic Fury was effectively over almost as soon as it began. “It’s just a question of when—when do we stop?” he said.
“Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won,” Trump said.
He added, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job.”
END
NOT GOOD
“The Situation Is Dire”: Half Of Available Global LNG Tankers Are Trapped In The Persian Gulf
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 10:20 AM
There are thousands of ships in the global oil tanker fleet, by some estimates nearly as many as 9000 (and that excludes sanctions vessels). Just a fraction of these are either waiting to enter the blockaded straits of hormuz, or to leave it.
By contrast, the global LNG fleet is a tiny fraction, and now most of it is stuck inside the Persian Gulf.
According to the WSJ, at least 20 LNG carriers a bout half the available global fleet – are trapped in the Persian Gulf, with daily freight costs soaring as demand from Asia surges, according to ship brokers. Bloomberg lists the known LNG tankers which are currently transmitting their positions as follows:
- Al Rayyan
- Al Kharaitiyat
- Umm Al Amad
- Lebrethah
- Gaslog Skagen
- Sohar Lng
- Disha
- Al Daayen
- Mubaraz
- Al Sahla
- Rasheeda
- Patris
- Seapeak Bahrain
- Fuwairit
- Mihzem
- Mraikh
- Al Ghashamiya
Most are located just off the UAE coastline:
“The situation is dire and will have a lasting impact on the market, regardless of how quickly the conflict ends,” Kostas Karathanos, the chief operating officer of Athens-based Gaslog, which operates 34 gas carriers, told The Wall Street Journal.
Some 20% of global LNG exports come from Gulf countries. At the moment, however, only a handful of ships can get through the Strait of Hormuz, and production facilities like those operated by QatarEnergy have been attacked and have stopped production.
Ship brokers said the 20 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf make up nearly half of all LNG ships currently available for charter, with daily rates rising to more than $200,000 from less than $98,000 before the start of the Iran hostilities.
Energy traders expect LNG prices to rise by early next week, adding to this week’s 40% rise in Asia and Europe. “The effect on LNG shipping will outlast the conflict for a few months,” Karathanos said.
Amid the scramble to procure LNG, more shipments bound for Europe are diverting to Asia. At least nine cargoes initially headed to Europe have changed course to Asia since the start of the fighting, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, with the trend accelerating in recent days. A buffer of spare supply is quickly drying up, threatening more competition and higher prices for both regions.
Adding to the turmoil, LNG suppliers, including Shell Plc, are declaring force majeure for customers across Asia due to halted flows from the Middle East, according to people with knowledge of the matter. This illustrates a growing ripple effect throughout the global gas market.
With virtually no available tankers to transport cargoes, Asian buyers of LNG are preparing for the war in the Middle East to disrupt deliveries for months, Bloomberg reports.
Companies in Thailand are looking to buy LNG cargoes for delivery through May, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. Bangladesh bought shipments for April, and is considering procuring fuel for May onward as well, the traders said. Major buyers in Taiwan and South Korea are also preparing to purchase more supply for those two months.
The moves demonstrate that Asia’s importers aren’t relying on a swift resolution to the US-Israeli war against Iran, and that the outage in Qatar, which supplies 20% of the world’s LNG. is expected to be prolonged. The longer the plant is shuttered, the worse the supply shock as there’s no alternative route to export the fuel, nor spare capacity elsewhere to cover the lost output.
Companies need to make contingency plans to prepare for a 2 to 4 months disruption, Dai Jiaquan, chief economist at CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, said at a BloombergNEF Summit in Beijing on Thursday.
Qatar shut the Ras Laffan export facility last week after an Iranian drone strike, upending the market and sending the price of gas in Europe and Asia soaring. A number of companies, including Shell Plc, have declared force majeure on their shipments of Qatari LNG to customers in Asia.
At least nine LNG shipments bound for Europe have rerouted to Asia since the fighting began, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, after Asian buyers offered higher rates than their rivals in Europe.
Meanwhile, Taiwan – which desperately needs LNG for conversion into helium, a critical component to to make Taiwan Semi’s chips – has started securing alternative LNG for May, cabinet spokesperson Michelle Lee said at a briefing in Taipei on Thursday. The island has fully secured supply for March and April, Lee added.
India, which sources about half its LNG from Qatar, has been scrambling to procure alternative shipments for immediate delivery, traders said. Gail India Ltd. was able to book an LNG cargo for March on Tuesday after a few failed attempts, while others are still looking, they said.
END
DENMARK/OIL/GAS
“Please, Please, Please”: Denmark’s Energy Minister Begs Citizens To Stop Driving As Global Energy Shock Spreads
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 10:00 AM
Iran launched another round of overnight strikes on tankers and Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude back above $101/bbl and sparking fears that chaos in the Middle East has triggered what the IEA warned could be the largest-ever supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA said on Wednesday.
With the record release of SPRs by IEA members announced on Wednesday, failing to halt Brent from re-entering triple-digit territory, Denmark’s energy minister issued a dire warning to citizens across the Scandinavian country, urging them to immediately conserve fuel and electricity.
“What the Danes should please, please, please do is, if there is any energy consumption that you can do without—if it is not strictly necessary to drive the car—then don’t do it,” Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s minister for climate, energy, and utilities, told local broadcaster DR in an interview earlier today, quoted by CNBC.
Aagaard said energy shock has driven the country to rely on its oil reserves amid “towering oil prices,” with no end to the conflict in sight.
We detailed the overnight chaos across the Gulf region in our geopolitical wrap titled, “Sixth Ship Struck: Oil Tops $100 As Tanker Attacks Escalate Hours After Trump’s ‘We Won.'”
“Firstly, it can be felt in the private wallet, and secondly, it can help stretch our reserves so that they last longer,” Aagaard said.
Related:
Energy conservation warnings have also emerged in the U.K., Vietnam, and the Philippines as governments and industry groups try to curb fuel demand and protect domestic reserves to weather the energy crisis.
Middle East Conflict Tightens LNG Supply, Redirects Cargoes To Asia
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 04:15 AM
The shutdown of key gas export facilities in the Middle East is tightening global liquefied natural gas supplies, raising the risk of a deficit and pushing cargoes toward Asia as buyers compete for limited shipments, according to Bloomberg.
Ras Laffan in Qatar — the world’s largest LNG export complex — has halted production, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also been disrupted. Bloomberg calculations based on 2025 output suggest that roughly three Qatari LNG cargoes are effectively removed from the market for every day the disruption continues. A smaller export facility in Abu Dhabi is also unable to ship, leaving about 20% of global LNG supply offline.
The tightening market is already reshaping trade flows. Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show that at least nine LNG cargoes originally bound for Europe have diverted to Asia since the fighting began, with the pace increasing in recent days as spare supply in the market rapidly dwindles.
“If this situation were to persist for multiple months, dragging well into the summer, there aren’t enough alternative LNG sources to sufficiently supply the global market,” said Mathieu Utting, an analyst at Rystad Energy. “The two other major LNG suppliers, the US and Australia, are already operating at full capacity with little room to increase utilization.”
The squeeze comes at a critical moment for both regions. Europe needs additional LNG to rebuild storage depleted during winter, while hotter-than-normal weather in parts of Asia is expected to boost air-conditioning demand in the coming months. Prices in both regions have surged over the past week, raising concerns about inflation and economic impacts.
“Asian buyers will need to supplement their term supply with spot cargoes,” said James O’Brien, head of LNG at D.Trading, a unit of Ukraine’s private energy company DTEK. “This will inevitably pull more Atlantic molecules east.”
Bloomberg writes that buyers in India, Bangladesh and Thailand have already turned to the spot market for additional supply, though some recent tenders for March delivery — including ones from India — failed to attract sellers because of limited availability and high prices.
New LNG supply from the US is unlikely to arrive quickly. While projects including Golden Pass in Texas and expansions at Corpus Christi and Plaquemines are progressing, additional capacity will come online only gradually.
Analysts say the disruption is also reducing the chances of a widely expected LNG glut this year. Morgan Stanley said any extension of the Qatar outage beyond a month “quickly brings a deficit,” after the bank had previously forecast 6 to 8 million tons of oversupply.
Rabobank strategist Florence Schmit estimates that each week of lost Qatari production cuts the expected surplus by about 1.5 million tons, leaving only a few weeks before the market tips into deficit.
“Markets are now facing a supply deficit even with higher US flows,” Schmit said. “The LNG glut has been delayed by a year.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1549 UP 0.0006
USA/ YEN 158.86 DOWN 0.218 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3383 UP 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3582 DOWN 0.0021 CDN DOLLAR UP 21 BASIS PTS//(DESPITE TRUMP’S TARIFFS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.48 PTS OR 0.64%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 182.00 PTS OR OR 0.70%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.20%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 182.00 PTS OR 0.20%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.48 PTS OR 0.64%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.20 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 998.37PTS OR 1.81%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 5183050
silver:$86.94
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.11
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 79.18 ROUBLE// DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7360 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3940 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.487 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.034 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 99.42 UP 18 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.389% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.185% UP 0 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.4725 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.424 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.713 UP 12 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9426 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1532 DOWN 0.0010 OR 10 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.962 DOWN 0.143 OR YEN IS UP 14 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7630 UP 8 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.447 UP 10 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 1.3607
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8690 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8741
TURKISH LIRA: 44.11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.251.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.886 UP 3 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.678 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 5163.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 86.29
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 77.25 PTS OR 0.75%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 210.49 OR 0.89%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 104.76 PTS OR 1.30%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 316.10 PTS OR 1.82%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 634.67 PTS OR 1.42%
WTI Oil price 94.88 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 99.00 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 79.57 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 43 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.482 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.044 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1517 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3345 DOWN 0.0037 OR 37 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7860 UP 10 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.462 UP 12 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.182 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.472 UP 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.41 UP 0.326 OR YEN DOWN 33 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3621 UP 0.0019 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 96.09
Brent OIL: 101.07
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.267
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 3 PTS to 4.883%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.753 UP 12 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.541 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.097 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.71 UP 48 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.12 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.98 DOWN AND 84/100 roubles //
GOLD $5096,00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 85.00 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 740.43 OR 1.56%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 431.42 PTS OR 1.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX 26.58 UP 2.35 PTS OR 9.70%
GLD: $ 466.96 DOWN 9.28 PTS OR 1.95%
SLV/ $76.50 DOWN 1.41 PTS OR OR 1.81 %
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 253.83 PTS OR 1.81%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Retail Retreat Sparks Stock Slump; Crude Jumps As Tehran Turmoil Goes ‘Turbo’
WRAP UP
Stocks sink amid $100/bbl Brent as geopolitical tensions boil – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 04:13 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: New Iranian Supreme Leader says Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, calls for US bases in the region to be attacked; Fuel tankers struck in the Gulf; Trump stands ground on stopping “evil Empire, Iran”; Trump admin is reportedly set to suspend the Jones Act to curb oil price increases; Iran Deputy FM reportedly says we’re not laying mines in Hormuz Strait; US is to release 172mln barrels of crude from strategic petroleum reserve; Iran says it gives permission for Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; US Initial Jobless Claims unchanged W/W, Continued Claims rise; USTR Greer says US is initiating Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners.
- COMING UP: Data: German Wholesale Prices (Feb), UK Trade Balance (Jan), GDP (Jan), French/Spanish HICP Final (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Feb), US Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP. Supply: Japan. Ratings: Scope Ratings on UK, Spain; S&P on Spain; Moody’s on Greece, Germany; Fitch on Spain, Italy
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MARKET WRAP
It was a risk-off trade on Thursday as oil prices surged once again to see Brent settle back above USD 100/bbl as the new Supreme Leader Khamenei called on the Strait of Hormuz to remain shut and for attacks on US bases to continue; meanwhile, navy escorts through the strait may not happen until the end of the month. Additionally, the US is to release 172mln barrels of crude from the SPR, however delivery is expected to take around 120 days, diminishing hopes over the US finding a short-term resolution. Fuel tankers were also struck in the Gulf. The rising oil prices and geopolitical escalations hit US equities with the majority of sectors lower, aside from energy due to energy prices, and utilities and staples – haven sectors. The rise in oil prices bolstered inflationary concerns, and traders unwound rate cut bets for the Fed this year, with a 25bps cut no longer fully priced, currently implying a 66% probability of a 25bps cut this year. Meanwhile, US data saw jobless claims remain within recent wages – perhaps easing some of the concerns following the February NFP report. In FX, the Dollar was bid as cuts were unwound, while cyclical currencies took a hit as stocks tumbled, and the Yen approached intervention territory on the prospects of a more hawkish Fed. Gold and Silver were sold as the Dollar and yields gained while Bitcoin rose.
US
BALANCE OF TRADE: The US Balance of Trade data for January saw the deficit narrow to 54.4bln from 70.3bln, also printing narrower than the expected 68bln. Imports fell slightly to 356.6bln from 357.6bln, but were above the 351bln forecast, while exports jumped to 302.1bln from 287.3bln, above the 286bln forecast. The jump in exports is what led to the narrower-than-expected trade deficit. Oxford Economics highlights that this is due to an increase in industrial materials, primarily precious metals and capital goods. It notes that although total imports fell, details showed capital goods imports were boosted again amid ongoing demand for AI-related goods. The desk also writes, “January’s report suggests net trade will be a 0.2ppt contribution to Q1 growth, which is roughly in line with our baseline forecast.”
BUILDING PERMITS/HOUSING STARTS: Building Permits fell beneath expectations in January to 1.376mln (exp. 1.41mln) from December’s 1.455mln. Single-family authorisations were 873k, -0.9% M/M. Meanwhile, Housing Starts were up 7.2% M/M to 1.487mln (exp. 1.35mln, prev. 1.404mln). Single-family housing starts were 935k, -2.8% M/M. Oxford Economics expects a gradual improvement in housing starts over the course of 2026. “
JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims were more-or-less unchanged at 213k W/W (prev. 214k), marginally beneath the expected 215k, and continues to remain within recent ranges; this meant 4-wk average ticked lower to 212k from 215.75k. For the headline, seasonals expected a decrease of 6,843 W/W. In terms of the contributors, Missouri (+3,801) and Virginia (+1,480) had the biggest rises, while New York (-14,360) was the clear decliner, followed by Michigan (-2,523). Continuing claims, for the preceding week, came in at 1.850mln (prev. 1.868mln), bang in line with Wall St. consensus. As Oxford Economics writes, the low and steady level of initial jobless claims suggests the big drop in nonfarm payrolls in February was a blip, not the start of a trend, and the consultancy think the evidence is consistent with labour market conditions stabilizing before the fallout of the Iran war hits the economy.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 18+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-13
T-notes bear flatten as oil prices rise back above USD 100/bbl, unwinding Fed rate cut bets. At settlement, 2-year +9.8bps at 3.751%, 3-year +9.8bps at 3.770%, 5-year +7.6bps at 3.877%, 7-year +6.2bps at 4.063%, 10-year +4.1bps at 4.269%, 20-year +2.2bps at 4.867%, 30-year +0.6bps at 4.884%.
THE DAY: T-notes were lower across the curve with the curve bear flattening as oil prices surged once again, seeing Brent settle back above USD 100/bbl as markets price out Trump’s “end of war” comments from earlier in the week. The new Iranian Supreme Leader released his first statement, calling for a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and all US bases should be attacked. Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Wright warned that ships will not receive military escorts through the strait immediately, but he hopes for it to be in place by month-end. Elsewhere, US data saw jobless claims remain low while the trade deficit narrowed thanks to a jump in exports. The data ultimately had little impact, with focus remaining on rising oil prices and the inflationary aspects of the Strait of Hormuz being shut. However, the fact that jobless claims remain stable could be offsetting some of the labour market concerns seen in the wake of the February NFP. Money markets continued to unwind Fed rate cut bets with only 17bps of easing priced in this year, which implies a 66% probability of just one rate cut. Elsewhere, the 30-year auction was solid (more below).
SUPPLY
Notes
- US sold USD 22bln of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 4.871%, stopping through the When Issued by 0.7bps, not as strong as the prior offering stop through of 2.1bps, but still a decent improvement vs the six auction average of a 0.2bps tail. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.45x from 2.66x, but also was above the six auction average of 2.39x. The breakdown of demand saw direct demand increase to 27.2% from 24.2%, above the 23.3% average, while indirect demand fell to 63.4% from 69.9%, below the 65.4% average. This left dealers with a below average 9.4%, but above the prior. Overall, a solid 30-year auction which was better than recent averages but not as strong as the stellar February offering
- US to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on March 17th and USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on March 19th; all to settle March 31st
Bills
- US sold 4-week bills at a high rate of 3.640%, B/C 2.77x; sold 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.625%, B/C 3.10x
- US to sell USD 89bln of 13-week bills and USD 77bln of 26-week bills on March 16th and USD 86bln of 6-week bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on March 17th; all to settle March 19th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Rate Cut Pricing: March 0bps (prev. 0bps), April 0bps (prev. 1.7bps), June 4.4bps (prev. 7.5bps), December 16.5bps (prev. 30.6bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.14bln (prev. 0.55bln) across 4 counterparties (prev. 4) on March 12th
- SOFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 3.175tln (prev. USD 3.2tln) on March 11th
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 97bln (prev. USD 104bln) on March 11th
- US Treasury Buyback [Liquidity Support, 7-10year, max purchase USD 4bln]: Accepted 55mln of 3.394bln offers; accepted 3 issues of 10 eligible
CRUDE
WTI (J6) SETTLED USD 8.48 HIGHER AT 95.73/BBL; BRENT (K6) SETTLED USD 8.48 HIGHER AT 100.46/BBL
The crude complex was bid amid no signs of de-escalation in the Middle Eastern war. Focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz closure, with the first statement from the new Iranian Supreme Leader stating that the closure should be continued as a tool to pressure the enemy, with further oil upside seen as he said other fronts will be opened if war persists. Before this, oil saw another bullish move after comments from Energy Secretary Wright, noting the Navy escort will happen relatively soon, but it cannot happen right now, and that the SPR release of 172mln bbls will need to be repaid, albeit with interest to return 200mln bbls back to the SPR within a year, which in turn will see more oil on the market in the short term, but the net impact is a tighter market by c. 28mln bbls in the long run. Prior to all this, and in overnight trade, the complex was buoyed by further Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait. While WTI and Brent was up for the duration of the session and hitting peaks of USD 97.19/bbl and 101.59/bbl, respectively, it did pare some of the gains on a couple of bearish headlines; 1) Trump’s admin is reportedly set to suspend the Jones Act to curb oil price increases, and 2) Iran Deputy FM said they are not laying mines in Hormuz Strait and Iran allowed some ships to cross strait. Eyes are also on the Israel/Lebanon border amid reports Israel is considering a ground invasion while tanks are being moved to the border.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -1.52% at 6,673, NDX -1.73% at 24,534, DJI -1.56% at 46,678, RUT -2.12% at 2,489
SECTORS: Industrials -2.52%, Consumer Discretionary -2.21%, Health -1.76%, Technology -1.72%, Communication Services -1.63%, Financials -1.62%, Real Estate -0.63%, Materials -0.36%, Consumer Staples +0.09%, Utilities +0.73%, Energy +0.98%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.69% at 5,755, Dax 40 +0.06% at 23,601, FTSE 100 -0.44% at 10,309, CAC 40 -0.71% at 7,984, FTSE MIB -0.64% at 44,488, IBEX 35 -1.20% at 17,144, PSI +0.83% at 9,152, SMI -0.56% at 12,850, AEX -0.23% at 1,001.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Fertiliser names continued to extend on gains amid supply disruptions. Of note for CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS).
- Atlassian (TEAM) will eliminate about 10% of its workforce.
- Occidental (OXY) double upgraded at Wells Fargo.
- TE Connectivity (TEL) authorised $3bln increase to share repurchase prog. & raised Q div. 10% to $0.78/shr
- Palantir (PLTR) teams up w/ NVDA to deliver sovereign AI operating system reference architecture
- Eli Lilly (LLY) compounded weight-loss drugs that contain vitamin B12 & main ingredient in Lilly’s Zepbound could present health risks due to impurity
- GlobalFoundries (GFS) priced 20mln share secondary offering at $42.00/shr.
- Dollar General (DG): FY SSS guidance slightly light
- Morgan Stanley (MS) capped redemptions from one of its private credit funds, returning less than half of capital that investors sought to cash out.
- Wolfpack short Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW).
FX
The Dollar Index hit a new YTD high of 99.750 amid Brent briefly regaining the USD 100/bbl handle as the Iranian leader advocated for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, while remarks from US President Trump showed little effort to calm tensions. Yields across the curve rose for their third consecutive day as money markets responded to rallying energy prices, now no longer fully pricing in a 25bps Fed rate cut by year-end. Meanwhile, data had little bearing on FX movement with Initial Jobless Claims unchanged at 213k while continuing claims rose above expectations, yet remain sticky within YTD ranges.
Antipodes were at the bottom of the G10 pile on Thursday, with growing hawkish RBA bets failing to offset the continued risk-off sentiment, which has finally caught up with AUD, leaving the currency snapping its 3-day outperformance.
USD/JPY trades around intraday peaks of 159.42, eyeing the multi-year high of 161.95, meaning FX intervention is likely to become a just as common topic of conversation as surging energy prices from the Middle East. That said, Japan’s heavy reliance on oil imports would suggest that FX intervention would have less of an impact in other environments, and as such, is less likely to occur.
TRY: The CBRT held the rates at 37% as expected. The Central Bank noted that the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA doing good with lower rates
(zerohedge)
US Housing Starts Highest In Over A Year As Mortgage Rates Tumbled In January
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 08:48 AM
With mortgage rates tumbling (before the war started) and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts printed better than expected for January while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, falling more than expected.
Starts rose 7.2k in preliminary January data (far greater than the 4.5% MoM decline expected while Permits plunged 5.4% MoM (worse than the 3.1% decline expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to their highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Multi-Family Permits plunged 13.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) while Multi-Family Starts soared 29.1% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building…
A mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging Treasury yields on the mortgage rates currently.
END
Once Again, Initial Jobless Claims Refuse To Signal Labor Market Stress
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 08:36 AM
Initial jobless claims dipped last week to 213k – basically unchanged since Nov 2021 – continuing to suggest an economy that is not seeing the average joe get canned at anything other than a de minimus rate…
Continuing jobless claims also dipped last week, remaining well below the 1.9 million Americans Maginot Line…
With ADP’s strong job additions report earlier in the week, all indications (except the aberrant payrolls print) are that the US labor market remains solid. The ‘no hire, no fire’ economy may be improving to a ‘some hire, no fire’ economy… for now.
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Wow that was fast!!
Moody’s Cuts New York City’s Rating Outlook Despite Mamdani Protests
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2026 – 09:26 PM
The only surprise is that the move came so late.
With New York City facing a historic fiscal crisis courtesy of its new mayor, late on Wednesday Moody’s lowered its outlook on New York City to negative, citing the “sizable and persistent” budget shortfalls it’s facing.
The move, which usually precedes a ratings cut in the subsequent several months, came as the ratings company also affirmed its Aa2 rating on the city’s debt, the third-highest level of investment-grade.
Moody’s said the change came after the city’s spending projections showed larger budget shortfalls than previously forecast.
“The negative outlook reflects the emergence of sizable and persistent projected budget gaps that signal underlying structural imbalance and reduced financial flexibility, despite New York City’s still favorable economic conditions,” Moody’s analysts said in a statement Wednesday, perhaps confused how to rate the former mecca of capitalism which was rapidly transforming into a socialist paradise.
Dora Pekec, a spokesperson for Mayor Zohran Mamdani, said the move was premature, citing the $5 billion in additional state funding the city stands to receive under proposed budgets being considered by the legislature.
“These proposals reflect a real commitment by Albany to investing in the services New Yorkers rely on, and the fiscal health of our city,” the statement said. Moody’s ignored the protest.
New York City Comptroller Mark Levine said on Wednesday that the change was “a sobering wake-up call about the fiscal challenges ahead for us.”
The Comptroller warned that New York City must close a deficit of at least $5.4 billion this year and next year even as Wall Street bonuses are at record highs, and every major source of revenue, apart from corporate taxes, is rising. “Unfortunately, our expenses are growing even faster,” he said in testimony to city council members on Wednesday. As we said: “socialist paradise”
Levine said that the city’s operating expenses are projected to be $4.53 billion higher than its revenue in fiscal 2026, and warned that a proposed property tax increase floated by Mamdani would put the levy near its limit.
The mayor’s $127 billion budget relies on drawing from the city’s rainy-day fund, which would limit the city’s ability to weather the next economic downturn.
Spending on the city’s schools total $36.9 billion, a 31.5% increase since 2020, even as enrollment has fallen by 100,000 students, according to the comptroller. Moreover, the city’s housing voucher program has been growing at 4% per month and is estimated to total $2.6 billion next year.
But the real gut punch would be if New York proceeds with the planned tax hike on the city’s wealthy, a move which will decimate the city’s revenue as the ultra wealthy will move to Florida (as their California peers have already done), as well as leading to an exodus of office tenants, something which the collapsing stock price of commercial real estate giant Vornado has already sniffed out.
END
Private Credit’s Margin Call Moment Arrives As Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater Gate Investors
“…we think a “run on the bank” is inevitable and would recommend all investors to get out of levered private credit while they still can…”
END
Apparent Vehicle-Ramming Attack And Active Shooter Situation Unfolds At Michigan Synagogue
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 02:00 PM
FBI Director Kash Patel says agents are at the scene of what appears to be a vehicle-ramming attack and an active shooter situation at Temple Israel Synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan.
Local media outlet WXYZ reports that the incident at Temple Israel Synagogue occurred around 12:30 p.m. local time. The synagogue is located off Walnut Lake Road near Drake Road in West Bloomfield.
The Jewish Federation of Detroit said it is aware of a “security incident” at Temple Israel.
Here’s the statement:
“We are aware of a security incident at Temple Israel. We are advising all Jewish organizations to go into lockout protocol – nobody in or out of your building. More information to follow.”
Statement from Michigan State Police:
“We are asking community members to stay away from the area to allow for a police response. Troopers are also increasing patrols at other places of worship in the district.”
The attack comes as U.S. terrorism fears run high amid 12 days of U.S.-Israeli bombing in Iran.
*Developing…
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| he King Report March 12, 2026 Issue 7698 | Independent View of the News |
| Wednesday King Report: Any rally on a benign US February CPI Report should be short lived. 1) Gasoline prices rose sharply in February; so, pros will assume a benign report is bogus; 2) The March CPI Report should be very ugly due to soaring energy prices in March. Feb CPI is the expected 0.3% m/m & 2.4% y/y. Feb Core CPI is the expected 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y. The BLS has gasoline prices up only 0.8% in February after showing a 5.5% decline in January. Daily National Average Gasoline Prices Regular Unleaded per AAA Daily National Average Gasoline Prices Premium per AAA Wholesale and future contract gasoline prices show a far larger increase in January and February. Yes, Virginia, Team Trump, like other administrations before him, are crafting bogus US economic data, particularly in inflation and employment metrics. Trump tells Axios there’s “practically nothing left” to target in Iran – Axios 10:00 ET Trump told Axios in a brief phone interview Wednesday that the war with Iran will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.” “Little this and that… Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump said during the five-minute call. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/11/trump-iran-war-end-withdrawal Officials prepare for at least two more weeks of strikes – Axios (WH once again had to walk back DJT’s comments on the Iran War) International Energy Agency announces release of crude oil (400m bbl) from global strategic reserves – The act will be the largest release of crude from global strategic reserves in history. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/international-energy-agency-announces-release-crude-oil-global-strategic Feb US Budget -$310.0B ESNs traded modestly positive from the 18:00 ET opening until they broke higher after 19:48 ET. ESHs rallied to a daily high of 6822.50 23:57 ET. They then sank to 6768.25 at 5:57 ET. After a spurt to 6806.00 at 7:00 ET, ESHs fell to 6773.75 at 7:49 ET. ESHs spiked to 6804.50 on the 8:20 ET release of the February CPI Report. But as we warned, the rally was short lived because astute operators realized the report was bogus. ESHs sank to a daily low of 6751.50 at 12:08 ET. A Noon Balloon conflated with an early Afternoon Rally to take ESHs to 6784.50 at 13:27 ET. They then sank to a new daily low of 6849.75 at 13:38 ET on a report that the US State Department warned that Iran and their proxies may be planning attacks on US oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq. ESHs then stair stepped higher, hitting 6780.75 at 15:55 ET. They fell to 6772.50 at 16:00 ET. USMs hit 115 24/32 on the CPI Report release but sank to a daily low of 114 13/32 at 16:58 ET. Iran plotting revenge terror attack on California with army of drones as FBI reveals terrifying details https://trib.al/P0i4n12 JPMorgan Limits Lending to Private Credit Groups After Marking Down Loan Collateral https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-limits-lending-private-credit-groups-after-marking-down-loan-collateral Ex-Starbucks CEO ditches Seattle for Miami as Dems move to impose ‘millionaires’ tax’ https://trib.al/DkcVEh1 Positive aspects of previous session Most traders and investors know the Feb CPI Report is BS. Nasdaq rallied 19.04 points. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks peaked at 10:00 ET on conditioned trader and guppy early buying. USMs sank as much as 1 22/32 because the Feb CPI is bogus. Oil and gasoline soared. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was Monday’s massive rally mostly panicky short covering/ First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6777.51 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6811.15; 6745.59 @TechLayoffLover: Oracle is confirmed cutting 20,000-30,000 jobs but sources inside are saying the real number is closer to 45,000… Word is they’ve been running pilot programs with AI agents doing database administration work for 8 months One source told me a team of 47 DBAs in Austin got replaced by 3 senior architects plus automated Oracle Cloud Infrastructure management. The agents are handling routine maintenance, performance tuning, backup verification – stuff that used to require armies of L4 and L5 engineers. Internal metrics show the AI systems are catching 94% of database issues before human intervention needed… I’m hearing entire solution engineering teams are getting eliminated – the people who customize implementations for enterprise clients Apparently the new AI workflow can generate custom database schemas and migration plans in 6 hours instead of 6 weeks… https://x.com/TechLayoffLover/status/2031827655436161366 @DrMargaretShow: Johns Hopkins patented Mebendazole Polymorph (US 11,110,079 B2, 2021) for TREATMENT & PREVENTION of TUMORS— a cheap, safe deworming drug with 40+ years of use that hits brain tumors hard! Yet it’s buried while Big Pharma rakes in $250+ BILLION/year on toxic designer https://t.co/Xindl300yb @joeroganhq: Joe Rogan: “It’s just this dirty secret that no one talks about because all the media is paid off by the pharmaceutical drug companies… The reality is most of these people that have committed mass murder are on psychiatric medication.” https://t.co/I4xnxUYhj2 Sea drones target oil tankers in the Middle East as conflict risks widen – Reuters Naval drones used in attacks on oil tankers in Gulf region Iran suspected in attacks, showcasing naval drone capabilities Sea drones pose significant threat to commercial vessels in key shipping lanes https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sea-drones-target-oil-tankers-middle-east-conflict-risks-widen-2026-03-11/ @BNODesk: 1 of the ships on fire in the Persian Gulf is the U.S.-owned SafeSea Vishnu, according to Tanker Trackers. The other one is the Greek-owned Zefyros. After oil and gasoline soared on the above news, Team Trump announced the US would release 172m barrels of oil from the US SPR. (18:57 ET on BBG) WTI Oil fell from 93.01 (+$5.76) at 18:35 ET to 90.65 at 18:59 ET on the SPR release. But to the horror of Trump and his market fixers, WTI Oil surged to 94.38 at 19:37 ET. Equity futures sank in concert. @vtchakarova: Iraq oil ports halt operations after tanker attacks. Oil ports have “completely stopped operations” while commercials ports continue to operate. Iraqi port security officials have said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were in flames after being attacked by Iranian boats laden with explosives, killing a foreign crew member. @ariel_oseran on Wed night: The Bahraini Interior Ministry says an Iranian drone/missile attack targeted fuel tanks at a facility in Muharraq Governorate, and authorities are responding at the scene. Today – Because of the assumed sea drone attacks on 2 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, Wednesday night trading is ugly. If stocks and energy markets are ugly when US trading begins, what will Trump and his market fixers due to boost equities and quiet oil and gasoline? How will Trump respond to Iran going scorched earth on the global energy market/economy? PS – Mr. Bond, who was merry last week, is very unhappy again. He could weigh on stocks. ESHs are -62.75; NQHs are -225.75; USHs are -18/32; oil and gasoline are roaring at 20:08 ET. Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims 1.85m; Jan Housing Starts 1.341m, Permits 1.41m S&P Index 50-day MA: 6894; 100-day MA: 6842; 150-day MA: 6745; 200-day MA: 6596 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,057;100-day MA: 48,242; 150-day MA: 47,376; 200-day MA: 46,415 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6775.80 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6458.06 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6889.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6793.69 triggers a buy signal @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Condemn Hegseth for Using Money to Feed Soldiers When It Could Have Gone to Somali Daycare https://buff.ly/twru2gQ The untold reason Kristi Noem’s alleged lover Corey Lewandowski did ‘whatever the f–k I want’ at DHS (DJT will pardon him, no matter what he does.) “Corey has always behaved like the rules don’t apply to him. People around Trumpworld have been waiting to see how that ends,” said a former Trump campaign adviser… The “final straw” for Trump was Noem’s reaction to being asked if she was having an affair with Lewandowski during her testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee… Lewandowski lost his job as Trump’s first campaign manager in 2016, and found himself on thin ice again in 2019 when his associate David Bossie was exposed for allegedly raking in $18.5 million for an unauthorized group called the Presidential Coalition, which reportedly fooled senior citizens into thinking they were helping Trump-aligned candidates. A large chunk of the funds went to buy books he co-authored with Lewandowski, though the former campaign manager was not directly implicated… https://nypost.com/2026/03/11/us-news/why-kristi-noem-aide-corey-lewandowski-thought-he-could-do-whatever-the-fk-he-wanted-at-dhs/ Grifters of a feather flock together. @FoxNews: ‘OPPRESSION AND BRUTALITY’: Democrat Senator John Fetterman blasting the double standard of critics who target American athletes while staying silent on the women of Iran’s soccer team protesting the regime. In a post on X, the Senator is calling out the hypocrisy of those who criticized the U.S. Men’s Hockey team but refused to condemn the threats and “severe consequences” Iranian female players are facing. “How many of the people who criticized our Men’s Hockey team condemned Iran’s treatment of its Women’s Soccer team?” More evidence that the UK has fallen via Bloomberg (@business): Winston Churchill will soon disappear from UK banknotes, as the cigar-toting, wartime leader makes way for creatures like hedgehogs and badgers. After a public consultation, the next generation of pound notes will feature native British wildlife, according to the Bank of England. @anangbhai: General De Gaulle on Winston Churchill after his electoral defeat in 1945: “His nature, identified with a magnificent enterprise, his countenance etched by the fires and frosts of great events, were no longer adequate to the era of mediocrity.” | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Starbuck’s Schultz a liberal flees Seattle for Florida
(zerohedge)
Coffee King Howard Schultz Flees To Florida Hours After Washington Wealth Tax Passes House
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Yet another rich guy is fleeing their Democrat-controlled state over a new wealth tax. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, a huge liberal himself, announced that he’s moving from Washington state to Miami, Florida – hours after state lawmakers advanced a tax bill targeting residents earning over $1 million per year.
Schultz, 72, who bought the company in 1987 and built it into the globally recognized chain it is today, made the announcement in a Tuesday LinkedIn post – writing that he and his wife Sheri were moving to Florida “for our next adventure together.”
“We have moved to Miami for our next adventure together. We are enjoying the sunshine of South Florida and its allure to our kids on the East Coast as they raise families of their own,” he wrote.
Under the new wealth tax, SB 6346, people making over $1 million per year would pay a $9.9% tax on income above that threshold starting in 2029. A final vote could come as early as today in the state Senate, after which it would go to Gov. Bob Ferguson’s desk where he says he plans to sign it.
Schultz’s announcement came hours after the Washington state House passed the so-called Millionaire’s tax after more than a day of debate. The new wealth tax, which will raise an estimated $4 billion per year, will be used to cut other taxes and expand the Working Families Tax Credit to an estimated 460,000 households (until of course a flood of high-earners leave the state). The measure passed in the Democrat-controlled house by 51-46 after a debate which exceeded 24 hours.
Schultz, whose net worth is estimated by Forbes a $4.3 billion, went on to praise Pacific Northwesterners who helped build Starbucks into a worldwide brand – saying that it is their “hope that Washington will remain a place for business and entrepreneurship to thrive.”
Of course, he didn’t mention that Seattle has become a cesspool, with open-air drug markets and soft-on-crime leadership that’s done virtually nothing to stem the homeless crisis and fentanyl epidemic.
Starbucks headquarters will remain in Seattle, however the company announced earlier this month that it will be expanding its corporate footprint to Nashville, Tennessee as the company moves to expand its presence in the Southeast. Like Florida, Tennessee taxes are far more favorable for rich people, and in many cases, corporations.
“The Millionaires’ Tax passed by the House represents historic progress in rebalancing our unfair system. It sends significant dollars back to Washington families and small businesses,” Gov. Ferguson said on X.
END
STUPID TAX
Eat The Rich: Sanders And Khanna Introduce Federal Billionaires Tax
Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 – 09:40 AM
“Enough is enough.” With those words, Senator Bernie Sanders (I., Vt) launched a push to impose a 5% annual wealth tax on America’s billionaires. With Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Cal.), the legislation, “Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act,” echoes the growing “eat-the-rich” mantra on the left — seeking to replicate a disastrous push in California that has led to an exodus from that state and an estimated loss of $2 trillion in taxable assets.
It is also flagrantly unconstitutional.
Under the plan, Congress would target 938 billionaires to tap them for $4.4 trillion. That money would then be redistributed as a $3,000 direct payment to every man, woman, and child in a household making $150,000 or less – $12,000 for a family of four.
The timing of the move is telling. Not only is it calculated before the midterm elections, in which the Democrats hope to retake power, but it follows the push by California Democrats and unions to impose a similar wealth tax in that state.
Khanna, who represents Silicon Valley, has supported the state law, which includes a ruinous provision for startup entrepreneurs. The law would not only be retroactive to try to trap wealthy taxpayers who have fled the state, but also base wealth calculations on the voting shares of corporate executives. Often, with start-ups, entrepreneurs hold greater voting shares than actual ownership. However, just in case they need more incentive to leave the state, they will be taxed as if their voting shares represented actual wealth.
The practical problem is that the wealthy, like their wealth, are mobile. As a result, many are fleeing California. So now Khanna is joining with the nation’s leading Democratic Socialists to ensure there is nowhere to hide in the United States. For billionaires in California, they could be double-tapped for ten percent of their wealth.
It has long been the dream of the far left. Years ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren delighted Democratic voters in her run for the presidency by telling the rich she was coming after “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts.” In one debate, she dramatically rubbed her hands together after saying she would take some of the wealth of fellow candidate John Delaney, a self-made millionaire.
In my book, “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” I discuss the growing threat of “economic factionalism” as politicians fuel rage against the wealthy based on the false premise that they are not “paying their fair share.” While there are good-faith arguments for adjusting tax burdens to address budget demands, the top 1 percent pays more taxes than the bottom 90 percent combined.
There is little reason to believe that a wealth tax targeting billionaires will not, if upheld, be later extended to lower tax brackets, starting with multimillionaires. That is the signature of economic factionalism, which feeds an insatiable appetite for greater wealth seizure.
The Sanders-Khanna plan is notable in its express commitment to direct wealth redistribution. It also explains why the left has made the packing of the Supreme Court a priority. As Harvard professor Michael Klarman explained years ago, the radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election” requires control of the Supreme Court to uphold such measures.
The problem is that the Constitution bars the implementation of such a federal wealth tax. When the 16th Amendment was ratified, it allowed for federal income taxes, and only income taxes: “The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”
The effort to expand federal taxation beyond income taxes will require either a constitutional amendment or an enabling, packed Court.
Nevertheless, these politicians will continue to dangle wealth distribution before voters. They will demonize figures like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk for their wealth while ignoring that these same figures are wealth and job creators, driving our economic growth. Instead, Sanders declared that “Billionaires cannot have it all.”
The irony of Rep. Khanna (who has been floating a run for President in 2028) turning on his own constituents in Silicon Valley underscores the appeal of wealth-redistribution campaigns. He is turning the very heart of his state’s economic growth as state deficits and out-of-state migration increase.
For Sanders, the legislation is a key moment to advance his long-standing socialist agenda. He declared the beginning of the end of “unprecedented income and wealth inequality” in the United States through such redistribution. The stated objective of erasing wealth inequality highlights how this is just the start and the end of wealth taxation.
As discussed in Rage and the Republic, none of this is new. Countries like France previously targeted the wealthy, triggering an exodus of taxpayers and their businesses from the country. It had to reverse its policy as the economy collapsed.
Of course, many young people have no memory of such failures in the 20th Century. Instead, they are drawn to the very same soundbites used in France and Great Britain before disastrous experiments with socialism. With no experience with socialist economies, figures like socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani can entice voters to “the warmth of collectivism.”
There are legitimate concerns over the glaring and growing wealth gap in the United States. However, a wealth tax is neither a constitutional nor a practical way of addressing the problem.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
