MARCH 19/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $279.85 TO $4610.85//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $6.22 TO $71.25//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $108.90 TO 1958.80 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $74.30 TO $1456.60//ISRAEL VS IRAN UPDATES: ISRAEL ANNOUNCES TOTAL DESTRUCTION OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE PRODUCTION//UPDATES ON IRAN VS ISRAEL /ISRAEL TBN//
I HAD A MAJOR CORRUPTION IN MY DATA DURING THE DAY. I REWROTE MOST OF THE STUFF;
THE CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE ACCURATE AS WELL AS EUROPE AND NEW YORK
ALL COMEX DATA AND GLD AND SLV DATA IS ACCURATE//ALSO FINAL DATA ON CURRENCIES IS ACCURATE
BUT NOT ASIAN OPENING ETC
IT WAS A STRUGGLE @@!!
TODAY WAS CAPITULATION DAY AS THE CROOKS GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT. THIS WAS ACCENTUATED BY THE HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS. THE BANKERS TOOK THE LONG SIDE AND THEY WILL TENDER TONIGHT AND OUR SPEC SHORTS WILL HAVE TROUBLE LOOKING THE EVER DECLINING INVENTORY OF GOLD AND SILVER
GOLD CLOSED CLOSED GOLD $279.85 TO $4610.85
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $6.22 TO $71.25
GOLD $4884.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 76.87 3;30 PM)
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $4641.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 72.33 3;30 PM)
Royal Mint Warns Of Delivery Delays As Londoners Rush For Silver
*CANADIAN GOLD: $6397.08 DOWN 242.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $7293.80CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MARCH 2/2026)
*BRITISH GOLD: 3466.82 DOWN $179.00 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//3,999.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) JAN 28.2027/2025
*EURO GOLD: 4019.71 DOWN 199. Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 4,564.65 EUROS PER OZ/ MARCH 2//2026)
Bitcoin morning price:$xxx DOWN xxx DOLLARS (MANY SWITCHING TO PHYSICAL GOLD)
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 709 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 155 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 601 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 34 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 899 99 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 339 709 C BARCLAYS 158 905 C ADM 6
TOTAL: 1,500 1,500 MONTH TO DATE: 11,231
JPMORGAN STOPPED 339/1500
MARCH
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MARCH/2026: 1500 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 150,000 OZ or 4.600. TONNES
total notices so far: 11,231contracts for 1,123,100 OR 34.933 tonnes)
FOR MARCH
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 241 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.205 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8543 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 42.715 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.XXXX AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.944 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 490.761 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1260 CONTRACTS TO 113,498 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $6.00+ LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING. WE ARE NOW RISING FROM THE ABSOLUTE LOW POINT IN OI // SILVER AT 112,874
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING LONG. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS AND THEN HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS LEFT STANDING TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!
IT WAS SOME OF OUR SILVER SPECULATORS THAT WERE BRUTALLY BEATEN UP AT THE SILVER COMEX THIS PAST MONTH AS THEY GOT RINSED OUT BADLY AT LAST MONTH’S RAID ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE MAR CONTRACT/.HOWEVER, WE FINALLY ARE NOW MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING SURPASSING THE $70.00 SILVER PRICE BARRIER TO A HIGH DEGREE, AND NOW READY TO ATTACK AGAIN, OUR LAST MAJOR HURDLE OF $100.00 SILVER.
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 710 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED 550 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING///WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALONG WITH A HUGE 1206 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S STRONG LOSS IN PRICE
THE PRICE FINISHED STILL MASSIVELY ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $71.27 DOWN 6.36 WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS AT A STRONG SIZED 1206 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 550 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG SIZED 1206 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN TODAY’S TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF710 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES IDESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $.600+. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC EVEN ON OUR HUGE PRICE FALLS. THE NON STICKY SPECULATORS WERE WIPED OUT WITH OUR HUGE FEB 24TH RAID!! BUT NOT DURING THIS WEEK AS THE RAID WAS A FAILURE SO THEY TRIED AGAIN LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN FAILURE! .EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS (LIKE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA AND CHINA)
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 1206 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 140 CONTRACTS OR 0.700 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.895 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI LOSS+// STRONG SIZED 550 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A FAIR NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 310 CONTRACTS
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 50 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 DAY(S), total 8507 contracts: OR 42.535 MILLION OZ (612 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 42.535 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 42.535 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1260 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.00 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE 550 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. INITIAL STANDING 31.176 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.700 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.895 MILLION OZ. DESPITE HUGE SILVER DELIVERIES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, THIS PAST WEEK, WE HAVE REACHED OUR ABSOLUTE LOW POINT IN SILVER COMEX OI. (112,874). TODAY IT ADVANCED A LITTLE BIT TO 113,488 RAIDS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING FOR OUR CROOKS AS LONGS WILL BE QUITE STICKYWITH THIS LOW COMEX OI!! HOWEVER WE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN SPEC SHORTS AND THESE GUYS WILL HAVE TO DELIVER TO OUR LONGS TONIGHT.
LAST 11 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.700 MILLION OZ QUEUE //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCESTO 43.195MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (310 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 241 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.205 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT. THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW ON A MASSIVE SIEGE LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL SILVER!!
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 647 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 412,035 OI AND FURTHER DROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE ARE STILL CLOSE TO OUR NADIR OI IN COMEX BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED A SMALL 34 CRIMINAL CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (647 ONTRACTS) . THIS GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $111.90 WEDNESDAY///.
LAST 10 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY THROUGH TO /FEB)
MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 4.32 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 6.22 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.837 TONNES/
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING MARCH. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5350 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 413,035AND WE NOW WITNESSING A LOWER COMEX OI BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD.//NOW ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO FLEECE. THIS LEVEL ADVANCES FROM ITS DECADES LOW OI AT 404,829.
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 113,498 CONTRACTS// GAINING A BIT FROM THURSDAY’S (MARCH 5) ALL TIME LOW OF 112,878 CONTRACTS.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5997 CONTRACTS WITH 647 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5350 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5937 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1266 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE LAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY . THE CROOKS MUST BE DESPERATE!
GOLD PRICE ON WEDNESDAY FELL BY $111.90
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(5350) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 647 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5937 CONTRACTS..
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR ABNORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE// . ,2.) STRONG FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY AND VERY STRONG FOR MARCH:
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.012 TONNES TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS//NEW QUEUE JUMP TOTALS INCREASES: 41.233 TONNES// /// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING FINISHED AT 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.32TONNES QUEUE JUMP FOLLOWED BY OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.220///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.837TONNES OF GOLD./
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4.32TONNES QUEUE JUMP +6.20 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.837TONNES/
3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A GOOD GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/MARCH 16 DESPITE HAVING 1)A $11890COMEX PRICE LOSS AND YET WE HAD 2) NEWBIE SPEC SHORTS GOING LONG AGAIN ON A NET BASIS, + EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS WERE PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5997 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN MARCH. (43.837 TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD (5350) AND A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE (1266) FOR RAID PURPOSES
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 47,704 CONTRACTS OR 4,770,400 OZ OR 148.37 TONNES IN 14TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3258 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN14TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 148.37 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 148.37 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.17% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 148.37 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1260 CONTRACTS OI TO 113,498AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 112,794 CONTRACTS THIS MONTH( MARCH 4/2026)
EFP ISSUANCE 550 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 550 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1260 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 550 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 710 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $6.00+
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.80 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $6.00+
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 17 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.08 PTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 156.88 PTS OR 0.61%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1687.50PTS OR 3.15%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8757
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8761Oil DOWN TO 94.24dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 102.83 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8757/ OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8761/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 647 CONTRACTS UP TO 412,035 OI , (CLOSE TO DECADES ALL TIME LOW OF 404,829), DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $XXXX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S // TRADING/ //COMEX CLOSING TIME:… WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS, WITH THAT PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD . AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR GAIN IN PRICE ALSO HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5350).
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS STARTED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY LONG THIS MONTH AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GOING NET SHORT AT THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MARCH CONTRACT MONTH!!
YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OI IS NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW POINT IN OI OF 404,829 AND FROM THIS POINT, OI WILL RISE BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE CROOKS TO FLEECE OUR NEWBIE SPEC LONGS. THE ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI IS 390,000 CONTRACTS WHICH OCCURRED IN 2001 WITH GOLD AROUND $260. FROM CHINA WE LEARN THAT TODAY, THE GOLD LEASE RATE IS NOW AROUND 1 TO 2 %.(SILVER IS AT 8%). WITH AN OI OF 412,035 THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR THE CROOKS TO RAID OUR NEWBIE SPECULATORSWHO ARE VERY STICKY AT THIS POINT.
WE THUS HAD A TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 5997 CONTRACTS (OR 18.45 TONNES) WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE, TUESDAY.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THEFEB. MONTH. WE HAVE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE THUS FAR FOR FEB NOW REMAINS AT SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
AND NOW MARCH GIVES ITS INITIAL 200 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MARCH:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUAY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MARCH COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5997 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MARCH/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED1494 T.A.S CONTRACTS (ENDING OUR 5 STRAIGHT DAY OF MEGA ISSUANCES LAST FRIDAY. . THESE WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER RAID CALLED FOR LASTFRIDAY.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH 1 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 20000 CONTRACTS OR 200,000 OZ/6.220 TONNES.. BUT DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE:
FOR EXAMPLE:
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 11 MONTHS:
FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 4.32TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 6.220 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 43.837TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MARCH,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A $111.90)
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI // BUT WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY’S ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (157 TONNES) AND ALSO MARCH’S STANDING OF 33+ TONNES.
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO MARCH:
ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT STRONG QUEUE JUMP 4.32 TO WHICH WE ADDD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 6.220 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 43.837 TONNES/
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $111.90
WE HAD A SMALL 34 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE (YOU ADD CONTRACTS?)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 5997 CONTRACTS OR 599,700 OZ OR 18.65TONNES
i) HSBC ENHANCED: 85,489.500 OZ 213 GOOD LONDON DELIVERY BARS
ii) Malca 578.718 oz
total withdrawal: 86,068.218 oz 2.677 tonnes
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
0 ENTRY
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI
No of oz served (contracts) today
1500 CONTRACTS
OR 150000 OZ
4.6656 TONNES OF GOLD
No of oz to be served (notices)
863contracts 86300 OZ 2.684TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,231 notices 973,100 oz 34.933 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
0 entry
customer withdrawals:
i) HSBC ENHANCED: 85,489.500 OZ 213 GOOD LONDON DELIVERY BARS
ii) Malca 578.718 oz
total withdrawal: 86,068.218 oz 2.677 tonnes
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs
ADJUSTMENTS 1
adjustments: / / 1// Dealer to customer:
a) loomis: 16,107.651 oz
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COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
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chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI STANDS AT 2363 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1390 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 1390 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 139,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. THE TONNAGE EQUATES TO 4.3270TONNES . WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AS CENTRAL BANKERS CLAMOUR FOR OUR ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET
APRIL IS THE NEXT LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH AND IT LOST 18,948 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 176,238 CONTRACTS. APRIL IS NOW THE NEW FRONT MONTH FOR DELIVERY OF GOLD. APRIL IS GENERALLY A VERY STRONG DELIVERY MONTH
MAY GAINED 43 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 964
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY A STRONG 8429 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 150,252
We had 1500 contracts filed for today representing 1500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1500 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 80 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAR. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11231) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (2363 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 15000 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,209,386.5 OZ OR (37.617Tonnes of gold) to which we add our first exchange for physical of 6.22 tonnes//standing advances to 43.837 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month: No of notices filed so far (9731 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAR (973 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (0)x 100 oz) which equals 1,209,386.5OZ OR 37.617TONNES// to which we add our first exchange for risk of 6.22 tonnes//new standing advances to 43.837
new total of gold standing in MAR is 43.837TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH 43.837TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW MEGA HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 278,512 poor
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,746,919.473 oz 54.33 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,746,919.473 tonnes oz 54.33 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 32,054,275.291 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,642,890.924 or 517.66 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 15,411,384.367 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 14,895,971 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
463.327 Tonnes // (declining rapidly)
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MARCH DELIVERY MONTH
MARCH 19 2026
INITIAL/
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries i) Out of Delaware 995.000 oz ii) Out of JPM 948.163 oz
total withdrawal 949.158.900 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 10,008.940 oz ii) Into Stonex 498,343.660 oz
total deposit 508,352.600 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 0
No of oz served today (contracts)
241. CONTRACT(S) ( 1.205 MILLION OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
236 Contracts (1.180 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
83028543 contracts 42.715 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 10,008.940 oz ii) Into Stonex 498,343.660 oz
total deposit 508,352.600 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries i) Out of Delaware 995.000 oz ii) Out of JPM 948.163 oz
total withdrawal 949.158.900 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 1//dealer to customer acct:
b) Loomis: 16,107.657 oz oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.411 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 334.684 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MARCH
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2026 OI: 477 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 157 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 140 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 0.700 MILLION OZ OF SILVER WILL TRY FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS A BANKER ASSISTED QUEUE JUMP.
APRIL, THE NEW FRONT MONTH SAW A GAIN OF 154 CONTRACTS UPTO 2087 CONTRACTS
MAY SAW A LOSS CONTRACT LOSS OF 1668 DOWN TO 84,413 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 7 CONTRACTS UP TO 406 OI CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 241 or 1.205 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON wedneDAY 57,495 poor+++//
AND NOW MARCH. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8543 X5,000 oz = 42.715 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH (477) AND the number of notices served upon today (241)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH 2026 contract month: (8543)Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH (266) minus number of notices served upon today (157 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAR..contract month equating to 43.895 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 43.895MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL LOWISH FOR A GENERALLY HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
New total standing: 43.895 million oz.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are ONLY 79.411 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 147.314/334,684million: 44.01%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
FEB 23/2026/WITH GOLD UP $148.25 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $79.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.75 TONNES
FEB 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 18/2026/WITH GOLD UP $102.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.61 TONNES
FEB 17/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $136.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077..04 TONNES
FEB 13/2026/WITH GOLD UP $94.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.140 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1076.18 TONNES
FEB 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $143.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.32 TONNES
FEB 11/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.65 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.34 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.32 TONNES
FEB 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.43 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1079.66 TONNES
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $XXXX: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
FEB 20 WITH SILVER UP $4.85 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.035 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.853 MILLION OZ
FEB 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 5.798 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.888 MILLION OZ
FEB 18 WITH SILVER UP $4.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 11.325 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.686 MILLION OZ
FEB 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.39 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.253 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.753 MILLION OZ
FEB 13 WITH SILVER UP $2.35 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.994 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.011 MILLION OZ
FEB 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $8.78 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 635,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.005 MILLION OZ
FEB 11 WITH SILVER UP $3.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 815,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.370 MILLION OZ
FEB 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.21 NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.555 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 490.761 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
1.PETER SCHIFF
Schiff: This War Is “Going To Cost A Lot Of Money We Don’t Have”
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026 – 03:45 PM
Last night, ZeroHedge hosted investor Peter Schiff and Rabobank’s Michael Every to debate the question: Will the war in Iran accelerate the U.S. dollar’s collapse or is it a geopolitical chess move that could strengthen its hegemony?
Moderated by Cornell professor Dave Collum, Schiff – based in Austrian economics – argued that the war will do nothing but harm the American economy via higher prices and interest rates, while the dollar weakens.
Every believes Trump can pull a rabbit out of a hat and come out of this with the U.S. and the dollar in a stronger position. Though, he notes that some measure of economic pain is likely a necessity of war.
Below were the highlights for those short on time but we recommend listening to the full debate, linked at the bottom.
War: An Economic Nightmare
Schiff: “The war itself is inherently going to end up being inflationary… it’s going to cost a lot of money that we don’t have.”
With no plan to raise taxes, the path is clear. “We’re just going to run bigger budget deficits,” Schiff said. This will weaken the dollar while raising interest rates, an ugly combo.
“We’re going to have to borrow more money to fund the war… the Fed is going to monetize that debt because the markets can’t absorb it,” he said. “Interest on the debt is already the number two line item… and pretty soon it’s going to pass Social Security.” Already the Treasury is moving to suppress rising interest rates with the largest buybacks in history.
Schiff is predicting a return of stagflation or as he’s called it, an “inflationary depression.”
“We’re going to have more inflation to pay for this war… a weaker economy, upward pressure on interest rates.” Higher energy, food, and input costs feed into that dynamic. Housing sits at the center of the fallout. “We could have a 30% decline nationwide in home prices very easily,” raising the risk of defaults, foreclosures, and stress across the banking system.
“Q4 GDP growth was 0.7… 2025 was 2.5%.” As growth slows, deficits widen on their own. Add war spending, and the trajectory steepens. “As the economy weakens, the government collects less taxes… you get bigger deficits anyway, and the war is just going to exacerbate that.”
Michael Every argued that economic sacrifice is not a side effect but a requirement. The U.S., in his view, must redirect resources away from consumption and toward production that sustains a war effort, even if that means lower living standards and enduring economic pain. Once the war is presumably won, the economy adjusts around that outcome.
“You ultimately win a war… with enough bullets,” he said. In a world where rivals are mobilizing, he argued, the rules change. “It’s not the same game.”
According to Every, other countries are already preparing for conflict, willing to impose controls and sacrifice efficiency to guarantee output. In that environment, refusing to do the same is a losing strategy.
Schiff viewed the war with Iran as a war of choice and thus not worth the unnecessary economic burden. “Look at what we did during World War 2. All of our production was diverted… you couldn’t buy anything… everything was rationed. The whole economy suffered for the war effort.”
China Buys Gold For 16th Straight Month, Wall Street Sells As Retail Loads The Bullion Boat
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 01:05 PM
For the 16th month in a row, China bought gold into reserves in February even as bullion prices hovered near record highs.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added another 30,000 troy ounces last month, lifting official reserves to approximately 2,309 metric tonnes (74.22 million ounces), valued at $388 billion.
This represents roughly 9-10% of China’s total foreign reserves.
At this pace, China is closing in on the top global holders (still behind US ~8,133t, Germany ~3,352t, but climbing fast).
Since November 2024, the PBOC has increased its gold holdings by a total of 1.4 million ounces.
Central banks are not alone, as CoinTelegraph’s Martin Young reports, retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
“Retail-driven exuberance,” increasingly channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), “set the stage for outsize moves,” continuing the precious metal rally from 2025, reported the BIS in a quarterly review released on Monday.
Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought around $70 billion in gold ETFs, and these purchases have more than tripled over the last six months, observed the Kobeissi Letter, citing BIS data on Thursday.
“Retail investors are all-in on precious metals,” it noted.
Gold has surged 60% over the past year, and some crypto proponents have speculated it has come at the expense of Bitcoin, which some argue competes with gold as a store-of-value asset.
BIS data shows cumulative retail inflows effectively tripled from around $20 billion to roughly $60 billion over the six months from late Q3 2025 to the end of Q1 2026.
However, institutional selling started around mid-November and accelerated after the precious metals market began to correct in January, according to the data.
Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reversed abruptly in late January and February 2026, while the “daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and margin‑triggered liquidations amplified the swings,” particularly in silver, BIS reported.
Smaller speculative derivatives traders, or “non-reportables,” had built up heavily leveraged long positions in silver heading into the crash, it added.
Gold prices are in ‘correction’ currently, down over 16% from its record highs in January.
The abrupt price drop and the spike in precious metal volatility “point to the role of retail flows, and amplification of price moves due to forced sales by leveraged ETFs, trend-following investors such as commodity trading advisers, and margin dynamics,” BIS stated.
.2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JESSE COLUMBO
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE AND LIVE FROM THE VAULT PODCASTS
5. COMMODITY REPORT//
ASIAN AFFAIRS MARCH 18/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.08 PTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 156.88 PTS OR 0.61%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1687.50PTS OR 3.15%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8757
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8761Oil DOWN TO 94.24dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 102.83 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8757/ OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8761/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER//OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.8757
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8761
1.HANG SANG UP 156.88 POINTS OR 0.61%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1687.80PTS OR 3.15%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 94.24
BRENT; 102.83
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.42/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1525 DOWN 14BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +2.211DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.91… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.486DOWN 6FULL BASIS PTS. AND STILL VERY TROUBLESOME
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8787(UP) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8761
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWNTO +2.8933 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.653 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.372
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWNTO 3.646
3j Gold at $4987.60 Silver at: 79,20 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1AND 18 100 roubles/83.66
3m oil (WTI) into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and 102 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.97 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.211% DOWN 6BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.489DOWN 6 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7869 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9069
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.174 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.827 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.664DOWN 23BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.21 UP 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6570 DOWN 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.337DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.387 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.944DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
US Stock Futures, Global Markets Plunge As Energy Prices Explode
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 08:51 AM
Global stocks are in freefall after a fresh surge in oil and gas prices deepened concerns that the war in the Middle East will fuel inflation and hit growth. We saw clear escalation in Iran conflicts yesterday given the South Pars gas field strike and Qatar LNG facilities strike, both of which have effectively shut down all hope for a quick resumption of LNG flows from the Gulf. Bonds also tumbled amid a second day of major central bank meetings, and just to keep everyone on the same pace, gold and bitcoin also tumbled, despite some de-escalation effort (Trump said that Israel will not conduct further attacks on Iran’s main natural gas facility), but selloff pressure in global equities remains. Micron gave strong earnings and guidance yesterday after close (almost double the Street’s Q3 EPS guidance with companies noting strong AI demand), but the stock has been down 5% amid global risk-off moves overnight and high CapEx concerns. Only oil (and specifically Brent now that the market is pricing in a US oil export ban), LNG and various energy products are soaring, and threatening to send the world into a stagflationary spiral. As of 8:00 am ET, futures for the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after the US benchmark wiped out gains for the week in the previous session. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5% while European equities were hit especially hard 2.1%, heading for the lowest level this year, as European energy prices exploded. A benchmark for Asian stocks dropped 2.8%.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple +0.3%, Nvidia -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Tesla -0.5%).
Mining stocks underperform as copper gave up its gains for this year and gold declined for a seventh day. Newmont (NEM) falls 7% and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) declines 4%.
Accenture (ACN) falls 2% after the consulting company provided a third quarter revenue outlook that disappointed.
Alibaba’s ADRs (BABA) fall 4% as earnings plunged while revenue barely grew, underscoring the urgency behind the Chinese e-commerce leader’s drive to wring more profits out of a swathe of costly AI endeavors.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) tumbles 19% after the company reported a wider than expected fourth-quarter loss and forecast first-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate as global storage volumes declined.
Dlocal (DLO) rises 7% after the emerging markets payment services provider’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics. The company also announced buyback plans and gave an outlook that analysts are largely positive on.
Five Below (FIVE) gains 7% after the retailer forecast net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company’s execution and note strong sales momentum.
Micron Technology (MU) falls 6% after the chipmaker gave a forecast for capital spending that was higher than expected, the latest example of investors being wary of elevated spending.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) inches 1% higher after the space company announced a $190 million hypersonic test flight contract.
In other corporate news, last week’s cyberattack against Stryker has delayed surgeries for some patients. Elliott Investment Management is said to have built a significant stake in Align Technology, the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening products. And a study in The Lancet Psychiatry journal showed that Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy were linked to mental health benefits. In AI news, HSBC is said to be weighing deep job cuts, betting on AI to shrink its middle and back offices. And Tencent’s shares plunged after it failed to deliver a clearer vision of how it’ll profit off agentic AI, with investors disappointed by a lack of new targets or products.
Today’s latest selloff comes as Brent extended gains since the start of the conflict to nearly 60%, climbing above $114 a barrel after attacks on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities. The advance in West Texas Intermediate was more muted, rising 1.4% as the gap between US crude and the rest of the world widened on expectations that Trump may impose export controls which would landlock WTI and send it much lower as the US is energy self-sufficient. The same can not be said for Europe however, which faces hell. Oh, and to that point, European natural gas jumped as much as 35%.
Oil’s surge already has global central bankers fretting about price pressures. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, following a hold by the Federal Reserve the previous day, with both signaling the conflict had clouded the policy outlook.
“The mood is clearly risk-off this morning, with markets still digesting a toxic mix of geopolitics and central bank messaging,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “The renewed escalation in the Middle East is reviving stagflation concerns just as investors were getting more comfortable on inflation up until March.”
Trump called for de-escalation after Iran unleashed waves of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities following Israeli fire on the South Pars gas field. The US wasn’t involved in that attack, Trump said, adding that any additional attacks by Iran on Qatar’s LNG facilities would prompt the US to “massively blow up the entirety” of the South Pars field.
For JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the market’s reaction to all this is too complacent. He notes that S&P 500 and oil correlations usually turn increasingly more negative after a 30% oil spike, and thinks not enough attention is being paid to the “bigger and more consequential question” of a negative impact on demand if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s message that that further interest-rate cuts are far from guaranteed finally fully sunk in for bond traders, who will be watching updates from other central banks including the Bank of England and the ECB in the next few hours. The Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged but added the Middle East to its list of risk factors without altering its inflation outlook, suggesting it still sees a potential path to raise rates in coming months.
European stocks were hit by a surge in natural gas prices amid attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure. Stoxx 600 is down 2% with all sectors ex-energy lower.Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
Aker Solutions shares jump as much as 10%, the most in about a year, after the Norwegian energy industry services company announced its board is proposing an extraordinary cash dividend of NOK5.00 per share.
Nemetschek shares rise as much as 4.3% after the software company set a sales target suggesting the strong growth seen last year is set to continue.
Gulf Keystone shares gain as much as 5.8%, briefly hitting a 2022-high, after the oil and gas company delivered 2025 results ahead of expectations.
Inwit shares slump as much as 26% to a record low after customers Swisscom and Telecom Italia announced a joint venture to develop their own tower infrastructure.
Vonovia shares slide as much as 11% to the lowest level since 2023 after the residential real estate firm reported a portfolio valuation lower than analysts had expected and as German bond remain elevated.
Accor shares fall as much as 9.8% to its lowest in nearly a year after Grizzly Research LLC says it is short the hotelier’s stock.
J. Martins shares drop as much as 3.8% after a fourth-quarter earnings beat was overshadowed by the retailer’s warning that geopolitical uncertainty weighed on consumer sentiment in the opening months of 2026.
D’Amico International Shipping shares slump as much as 18% to the lowest in five weeks, after its biggest single investor sold shares at a significant discount.
Asian stocks declined, snapping a three-day advance, as surging energy prices and warnings from policymakers about a weakening economic outlook damped risk appetite across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2% Thursday, the most since Mar. 9, as Iran and Israel traded strikes on key energy facilities in the Middle East. All major markets in the region were in the red, led by losses in Japan and South Korea. Several miners, including Australian gold producers Northern Star and Evolution, as well as Japan’s Sumitomo Metal, were the top decliners on the regional benchmark. Meantime, Tencent shares fell after China’s most valuable company said it plans to curtail buybacks and failed to deliver a convincing strategy on profiting from agentic AI. AIA shares also edged lower after earnings that were broadly in line with analyst expectations and planning a $1.7 billion buyback.
In FX, the yen is firmer after BOJ’s Ueda kept the prospect of an April rate hike alive. Yen gains are capping potential upside for the dollar in a risk-averse environment. Swiss franc lags after an unchanged SNB rate decision, which saw the Bank talk up the prospect of intervention.
In rates, yields on government debt surged. Treasuries have extended Wednesday’s steep curve-flattening selloff, leaving front-end yields about 4bp higher. US 10-year yield, about 4bp higher on the day near 4.30%, at session high and the highest since August. 2s10s curve breached 46bp for first time since early August while 5s30s is back near 100bp after reaching flattest level since Jan. 27. Bigger losses grip UK bond market, where front-end yields have risen about 31bps, the biggest jump since 2022, on a much more hawkish than expected BOE decision. Continued erosion in outlook for Fed rate cuts has swaps pricing in just 11bp of easing by end of year, while expectations for hawkish shifts by Bank of England and ECB continue to mount ahead of Thursday’s decisions
Traders cemented bets on two rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year and are now leaning toward a similar move by the Bank of England. Swiss and Swedish policymakers left rates unchanged. The increase in gas prices has prompted an acceleration in rate hike bets ahead of today’s BOE and ECB policy announcements. Year-end bets look for 55bps of ECB hikes and 36bps from the BOE.
In commodities, Brent crude is up more than 6% as escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten energy infrastructure. WTI is flat on expectations of a US export halt. Spot gold and silver are posting respective losses of 2.7% and 5.2%. Bitcoin is lower by 1.4%.
US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and March Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), February Leading Index, January new home sales and wholesale trade sales (10am) and 4Q household change in net worth (12pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.6%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
Stoxx Europe 600 -2.1%,
DAX -2.4%,
CAC 40 -1.8%
10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.30%
VIX +0.6 points at 25.69
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.01
euro +0.2% at $1.1474
WTI crude +1.8% at $98.07/barrel
Top Overnight News
Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies. WSJ
The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, according to a senior administration official, in an enormous new ask that is almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict. WaPo
Trump said an angry Israel had “violently lashed out” and attacked Iran’s major gas field, a significant escalation in the U.S.-Israeli war, but said Israel would not make further such attacks unless Iran retaliated. RTRS
Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter. RTRS
Global benchmark Brent’s premium over US-focused WTI jumped to a 12-year high, highlighting how the Middle East conflict is hitting Asia and Europe harder than the US. BBG
Top Senate Democrats Schumer, Warren and Wyden plan to urge President Trump to end tariffs, issue refunds and stop the Iran war, arguing his policies are raising costs, Semafor reported.
China’s rate markets are signaling reduced prospects for monetary easing. Meanwhile, the PBOC vowed to maintain stable financial markets while implementing moderately loose monetary policy. BBG
The BoJ kept policy settings steady Thursday against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East and volatile energy markets but stuck to its stance of continuing to seek rate hikes. The central bank maintained its policy rate at 0.75%, extending a pause stretching back to its last hike in December. WSJ
UK unemployment held steady in February as payrolls rose, signaling labor market stabilization. Payrolls increased 20,000 and the jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2%, both beating expectations. BBG
The ECB and BOE are both set to hold rates steady today, but the real focus is any guidance on the economic impact of the Iran conflict and what it may mean for policy. BBG
Sen. Thom Tillis said Wednesday that lawmakers are “very close” to an agreement to resolve a lobbying spat between banks and digital asset firms that could clear a path forward for landmark cryptocurrency legislation to advance in the Senate. Politico
Global benchmark Brent’s premium over US-focused WTI jumped to a 12-year high, highlighting how the Middle East conflict is hitting Asia and Europe harder than the US, MLIV said. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where the major indices suffered amid higher oil prices and yields, following energy infrastructure attacks in the Middle East and hawkish Powell comments. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in miners, materials and real estate, with sentiment not helped by mixed jobs data. Nikkei 225 suffered from the higher oil prices and as markets awaited the BoJ policy decision, which provided no major surprises, while the attention now turns to more central bank announcements, as well as the Trump-Takaichi summit later. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood with tech hit by weakness in semiconductors and following Tencent’s earnings, while miners and airlines were also pressured after a decline in metal prices and surge in oil.
Top Asian News
China’s Industry Minister said China is to focus on advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and frontier new materials; called for exploring AI application in materials research, testing, and production.
China’s government releases list of policies to strengthen, benefit and enrich the agricultural sector during this year. said policies cover subsidies for soybean, corn planting and producing, also covers cultivated land facility protection subsidies. Policies cover subsidies for inter-provincial employment and transportation subsidies.
Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said decided on energy subsidy as an emergency step, adds FX movements have been driven partly by speculators. Speculators can move easily due to the Bank of Japan and the summit. There has been some speculative trading in oil markets and authorities will do their utmost to respond to currency moves at any time. The ministry is prepared to take necessary actions against market volatility and is watching financial markets with an extremely high level of vigilance.
European Bourses are broadly lower as renewed attacks on energy infrastructure weigh on risk sentiment. The DAX 40 underperforms, pressured by Vonovia despite its return to profitability and plans to sell around EUR 5bln in assets to reduce debt. Sectors are weak across the board. Basic Resources lag as precious metals decline, while Travel & Leisure also underperforms. Energy is the relative outperformer, supported by elevated prices and policy support in Italy, benefiting names such as Eni.
Top European News
UK Unemployment Rate (Jan) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.2%, Low. 5.2%, High. 5.3%).
UK Employment Change (Jan) 84K vs. Exp. -4K (Prev. 52K).
UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Jan) 3.8% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%, Low. 4.0%, High. 4.3%).
FX
DXY is flat but off lows, holding above 100 in a 99.99–100.31 range as higher oil prices and a hawkish Fed backdrop support the dollar. Powell signalled policy remains restrictive with no imminent cuts, reinforcing inflation concerns tied to the Middle East energy shock.
JPY is firmer post-BoJ, driven by hawkish signals from Governor Ueda highlighting improving wage momentum. USD/JPY trades towards the lower end of a 159.04–159.87 range.
EUR is flat, with USD recovery capping upside while elevated energy prices limit downside ahead of the ECB. Focus is on whether the ECB shifts to a more hawkish tone amid rising inflation risks, though growth concerns remain. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1443–1.1491 range.
GBP trades subdued, sitting near the bottom of a 1.3245–1.3298 range as USD strength offsets limited domestic drivers. BoE expected to hold, with potential dovish dissent, though the energy shock may anchor a unanimous decision.
CHF is weaker post-SNB after explicit FX intervention language signals readiness to counter excessive strength. Initial CHF weakness pares as this stance was largely expected, with EUR/CHF moving up towards 0.9100.
SEK trades largely unchanged following the Riksbank decision, which keeps policy steady and maintains flexibility amid uncertainty from the Middle East-driven energy shock.
Antipodeans are firmer, recovering recent losses. NZD/USD shrugs off weak GDP, while AUD/USD remains choppy after mixed labour data, with gains supported by broader USD stabilisation.
Central Banks
BoJ kept its short-term rates at 0.75%, as unanimously forecast, with the decision made by 8-1 vote, as board member Takata voted for a 25bps hike. BoJ refrained from any major surprises, reiterating that it will continue to raise policy rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts and will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. Furthermore, it stated the economy is likely to continue growing moderately and inflation expectations have risen moderately, while consumer inflation is likely to briefly slow below 2% and re-accelerate due to the impact of rising oil prices, with the price trend is to be in line with the goal in the second half of the outlook.
SNB maintains its Policy rate at 0.00% as expected; prepared to intervene in currency markets to country currency appreciation if needed; “willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased”. The statement points to heightened uncertainty given the Middle East conflict. The main point of the statement was the FX language, commentary that sparked immediate pressure in the CHF as the SNB stated explicitly that it would counter rapid and excessive appreciation.
Riksbank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected; rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come. The Riksbank has kept its optionality open in whether the Middle East shock will lead to tighter or looser or monetary policy. A point evidenced by the scenario analysis that explores the avenues that could lead to either option. Additionally, the forecast adjustment for 2026 underscores this with the CPIF view increased while the growth view has been cut. But, pertinently, the policy path projection is unchanged vs the last MPR.
Norges Bank Q1 Regional Network Survey: Expect minor changes in output growth in the period to summer. Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
Brazilian Interest Rate Decision 14.75% vs. Exp. 14.75% (Prev. 15%), decision was unanimous. BCB reaffirms serenity and caution. Future interest rate decisions will incorporate new information on Middle East conflict depth and duration. Committee deemed it appropriate to begin the monetary policy calibration cycle.
Taiwan Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at 2.00%, as expected.
Fixed Income
UST are bearish following the hawkish tone from Powell and continued strength in energy prices. Futures drop around 15 ticks post-Fed, holding near session lows around 111-08 as higher oil and gas prices reinforce inflation concerns and keep yields elevated.
Bund futures are weaker, down 40 ticks at most with a trough near 125.70 as surging Dutch TTF gas and elevated crude push ECB pricing more hawkish. Focus turns to the ECB, which is expected to hold rates but likely revise inflation higher and growth lower.
Gilts underperform, gapping lower by 92 ticks and extending to an 88.32 low amid the global fixed income sell-off driven by energy and central bank hawkishness. Attention turns to the BoE, where rates are expected unchanged, with focus on the vote split and policy guidance.
France sold EUR 12.399 vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 2.40% 2029, 2.50% 2030, 2.70% 2031 and 3.50% 2033 OAT.
Spain sold EUR 5.546 vs exp. EUR 5.0-6.0bln 2.60% 2031, 2.55% 2032 and 3.30% 2036 Bono.
Commodities
Crude futures surge on escalation in the Iran war, with attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait driving a sharp risk premium. Brent approaches USD 119.5/bbl at peak, with WTI lagging and trading at a wide ~USD 12/bbl discount, the largest spread since 2015. The disruption is amplified by threats to alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, a key Red Sea export hub used to bypass Hormuz, although prices pull back slightly after reports loadings resume.
Spot gold extends losses, breaking below USD 4,700/oz as a firmer USD and rising rate expectations (driven by energy-led inflation risk) outweigh safe-haven demand despite ongoing conflict.
Base metals remain under pressure in a risk-off environment. Copper erases 2026 gains as higher oil prices weigh on global growth expectations and demand, with prices trading in a USD 12,041–12,326/t range.
Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port reportedly resumes oil loadings, sources say. This comes following reports that oil loading were stopped.
Gazprom said Ukraine increased attacks on Turkstream and Bluestream pipelines on 17-19th March; said all attacks were foiled.
Abu Dhabi government noted operations have been suspended at the Habshan gas facility, while authorities are dealing with two incidents of falling debris from successfully intercepted missiles that targeted that gas facility.
Geopolitics
Iran’s armed forces said Iran’s retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported.
Iranian lawmaker said parliament is mulling passing a bill that would impose toll and tax on ships seeking safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, ISNA reported.
US embassy says Americans should leave Saudi Arabia immediately.
US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran’s major facility and the US did not know about the attack, while he called for no more attacks by Israel on South Pars and threatens the US will retaliate if Qatar’s LNG is attacked again.
US officials say President Trump wants no more energy strikes but supported the attack on South Pars, and could once again be open to targeting additional Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran’s actions in Strait of Hormuz, according to WSJ.
US President Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of additional US troops to the Middle East as Trump weighs Iran next steps, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US Pentagon seeks more than USD 200bln in budget requests for Iran war, according to Washington Post.
Israeli official said war has moved into a new phase and may last several more weeks.
Saudi Foreign Minister said Iran must review ‘misjudgements’, and attacks will bring no gains, demands Iran stop proxy support and protect maritime navigation immediately, adds Iran has dealt with neighbours not in a brotherhood but with a hostile view. Added that Saudi Arabia reserves the right to take military action against Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry said a drone has fallen on the Samref refinery, currently assessing the damage.
Missile reportedly hit the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, according to Iran’s semi official SNN.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said one of the operational units at Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery was targeted on Thursday by a drone, resulting in limited fire, no casualties reported.
QatarEnergy said natural gas and LNG facilities at were subjected to missile attacks causing fire and more severe damage.
French President Macron said he spoke with the Emir of Qatar and President Trump following the strikes that hit gas production sites in Iran and Qatar. Said, “It is in the common interest to implement without delay a moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and water infrastructure.”.
Security sources say a drone attack targets Iraqi naval forces based near Umm Qasr Port, although no casualties or damage that were reported.
Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah announces suspension of attacks on the US embassy for five days, subject to conditions.
The escalation on the Lebanon front may continue regardless of the Iran war, Al Arabiya reported citing an Israeli security source.
Russia’s Kremlin said trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations are on pause, but investment talks are to continue
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets resumed their slide yesterday, with bonds and equities slumping amid an escalation in strikes against energy infrastructure across the Middle East, which led President Trump to call for a de-escalation of strikes against gas facilities overnight. Brent crude (+3.83%) reached its highest closing level since July 2022 at $107.38/bbl and has extended its advance to $111.78/bbl this morning. Together with a more watchful tone on inflation from Chair Powell after the Fed’s on hold decision last night, this sent investors pricing out the likelihood of rate cuts this year. And if that wasn’t enough, the US PPI surprised on the upside yesterday, so there was little respite anywhere on the inflation side. With the prospect of a stagflation shock back on the agenda, the S&P 500 (-1.36%) fell back to its lowest level since November, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+6.7bps) was back up to 4.27%.
The escalating tone out of the Middle East yesterday started after Tehran said airstrikes hit Iran’s South Pars natural gas field. That’s significant because it marked the first strike on their upstream facilities since the current war began. In turn, that led Iran to threaten retaliation, publishing a list of energy sites across the Gulf that they said were targets. And late in the US session we saw news that a missile strike against Qatar’s LNG export facilities resulted in “extensive damage”. We’ve since had some signs of the US seeking to contain the escalation. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump didn’t want any more strikes against Iran’s energy sites, and the President himself posted late last night that the US knew nothing of Israel’s attack against the South Pars gas field. President Trump added that “no more attacks will be made by Israel” against South Pars if Iran stops its own strikes, though he also threated to “blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” if Iran again attacked Qatar LNG.
Despite those comments, oil markets remain on edge in Asia this morning amid fears that energy infrastructure could be meaningfully damaged. Brent crude is up +4.10% to $111.78/bbl this morning after a slightly smaller gain through the European close yesterday. And with concern mounting about a more protracted conflict, the 6-month Brent future (+2.80%) moved up to a post-2023 high of $88.19/bbl yesterday. Interestingly, WTI crude has seen a more modest increase, trading at $96.92/bbl this morning. That’s less than a dollar above Tuesday’s close, leaving the Brent-WTI spread at its widest since WTI briefly traded in negative territory during the Covid pandemic in April 2020. This also comes as Trump administration officials are expected to meet oil sector executives today.
Against that backdrop, we had the Fed’s latest decision. As widely expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold at 3.50-3.75%, with Governor Miran the dissent in favour of a rate cut. The median SEP dot continued to pencil in one rate cut this year, though some of the more dovish members trimmed their expectations for rate cuts. Hawkish nuances were then more evident in Powell’s press conference. While the Chair unsurprisingly said that the uncertainty stemming from the events in the Middle East creates risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, it is the inflation outlook that drew more of his attention. Powell argued that the Fed needs to see “progress on inflation” to cut rates again later this year, noting that core goods disinflation was “really important” in this respect. Powell also removed a line on core services disinflation from his prepared remarks. All this left a sense of increased concern about the continued overshoot of the inflation target, though he did say that a “vast majority” of the FOMC did not anticipate rate hikes. In all, our US economists see Powell’s comments as suggesting that the case for rate cuts has weakened but remains stronger than the case for hikes. See their full reaction here.
Away from policy, Powell said that he plans to stay on the Fed board until the current DoJ investigation into him is “well and truly over”, also adding that he had not yet decided whether he would otherwise continue to serve his term as Governor which ends in January 2028. So while Powell’s term as Fed Chair is due to end in May, this leaves open the prospect of him remaining as chair pro-tempore beyond this if President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh isn’t confirmed by the Senate by then. Note that Senator Tom Tillis has said he won’t advance Warsh’s nomination until the investigation into Powell is resolved.
Powell’s press conference solidified the move higher in rates, which then further extended after the news of Iranian strikes damaging Qatar’s LNG plant. By the close, fed funds futures priced just 15bps of rate cuts by December (-10.9bps on the day), with the 2yr Treasury yield rising by +10.1bps to 3.78%, its highest since August last year. That’s despite policy rates being 75bps lower now than they were at the time. The sell-off was slightly more modest at the long-end, with 10yr yields up +6.7bps to 4.27%.
The backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks and higher rates weighed on risk assets, with the S&P 500 closing -1.36% lower. The decline was very broad-based with all 24 sector groups within the S&P 500 lower on the day as the index saw the most decliners (422) so far this year. Other asset classes also struggled, with gold (-3.74%) and bitcoin (-4.44%) slumping, while the dollar (+0.51%) advanced against all the G10 currencies as it benefited from safe haven flows.
The risk mood has remained cautious overnight. While US equity futures are little changed, Asian equities have continued the overnight losses on Wall Street. Across the region, the Nikkei (-3.25%) is the largest underperformer following the Bank of Japan’s on hold decision. In other markets, the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.62%), the Hang Seng (-1.66%), the KOSPI (-2.52%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.95%), and the CSI (-0.99%) are all also showing significant declines.
In terms of the details on the BoJ, the central bank maintained its overnight call rate at 0.75% in an 8-1 decision. Hajime Takata was the only dissenter, advocating for a 25bps hike for the second consecutive meeting due to rising inflation risks. The bank noted that while inflation is anticipated to temporarily slow below 2% in the short term due to a deceleration in rice price increases, the conflict in the Middle East is expected to exert “upward pressure, influenced by the recent increase in crude oil prices.” So a hawkish leaning take on the energy risks. Following the decision, 10yr JGB yield are up +4.6bps to 2.27%. The Japanese yen is a touch stronger against the dollar (+0.13%), though at 159.60 it remains within touching distance of its weakest level since mid-2024. We’ll be hearing from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference shortly after we got to print. This may provide further policy guidance, with swaps currently pricing a 60% chance of a hike at the next BoJ meeting in April.
Turning back to yesterday’s moves, investors’ concerns about inflation weren’t helped by the US PPI print. That was for February, so doesn’t account for the impact of the recent energy spike, but it still came in above expectations. It showed monthly headline PPI at +0.7% (vs. +0.3% expected), which pushed the year-on-year reading up to +3.4% (vs. +3.0% expected). So that added to a pro-inflationary backdrop with the US 1yr inflation swap surging another +18.6bps yesterday to 3.32%, its highest level since September.
Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight with both the ECB and Bank of England announcing their latest decisions today. For the ECB, it’s widely expected they’ll follow the Fed and the BoJ in keeping rates on hold. However, the Iran conflict has led to a big shift in pricing since the last meeting, with markets now pricing in an ECB rate hike by July and two hikes by the end of the year. So today the focus will be on how they communicate around that, and our European economists think they’ll acknowledge higher uncertainty and the upside risks to near-term inflation. They also think there’ll be a strong message that underlines the ECB’s commitment to price stability, and that they’re willing to act to avoid a repeat of the 2022-23 inflation shock. Indeed, they point out that saying this loudly and clearly might be the best way of ensuring inflation expectations stay well anchored. For more details, see their full preview here.
Shortly beforehand, we’ll also get the BoE decision, where they’re widely expected to keep rates on hold as well. As with the ECB, market pricing has seen a significant hawkish shift, having gone from pricing further cuts before the Iran strikes, to an 85% chance of a hike by December. For today, our UK economist thinks there’ll be a 7-2 vote, with the minority still preferring a 25bp rate cut. And looking forward, he expects them to message that there’s little need to adjust policy to a more restrictive stance right now. However, he also thinks they’ll signal that the assumed disinflation path to 2% looks less likely. See his full preview here for more.
Ahead of those decisions, European markets struggled yesterday, with the latest oil spike driving losses across the continent, particularly as investors priced in more rate hikes. So the STOXX 600 (-0.75%) and the DAX (-0.96%) saw their biggest decline in the last week. Moreover, sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.4bps), OATs (+4.0bps) and BTPs (+7.1bps) all moving back up again. Those moves came as the 1yr EUR inflation swap spiked by 32bps to 3.49%, its highest since April 2023.
Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlights will be the policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Otherwise, data releases include UK unemployment for January, the US weekly initial jobless claims, and US new home sales for January. Today also marks the start of a two-day EU leaders’ summit. Higher energy prices will be a big topic, though our economists expect that for now the policy response will be focused on country-level energy tax cuts
1 b European opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
/JAPAN
3. CHINA/
4. European and Scandinavian affairs/also NATO
5. Russian and Middle Eastern Affairs
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN
ISRAEL TBN
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH
IRAN/QATAR//WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATES
Qatar Expels Iranian Diplomats After Strike On LNG Hub; Israel Attacks Iran’s Navy In Caspian Sea
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026 – 04:05 PM
Summary
Israel strikes Iran Navy in Caspian Sea. Iran FM Discusses Strait of Hormuz with EU’s Kallas, oil dumps, amid reports of Iran launches on KSA. Largest Qatar LNG export hub hit by Iranian missiles. Doha expels diplomats.
Some Gulf states want to ensure Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed for good, as EU, Russia, China demand ceasefire; Beijing ignores Trump’s Hormuz plea
Israel says Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated overnight as pace of top leadership killings accelerates.
Iran says upstream oil and gas assets are under attack for first time since war began, readies retaliatory action against oil/gas assets in Gulf area, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, & UAE; Iraq reroutes some flows through Ceyhan Pipeline to Turkey
Iran reiterates new rules in place for Hormuz transit as traffic remains de-minimus, sparking reports that “the blockade is now the worst disruption to oil flows ever…“
In the wake of the major Iranian missile attack on Ras Iaffan Industrial City and Qatar’s main LNG export hub, Doha has declared Iranian military and security attaches in the country persona non grata, effectively expelling the diplomats. Oil is also ramping back up again on the late in the day headlines of ongoing Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy:
BRENT OIL EXTENDS GAINS IN POST-SETTLEMENT TRADE TO ABOVE $110
War Expands To Israeli Strikes in the Caspian Sea
The war has once again expanded geographically, as Israeli media is reporting fighting in the Caspian Sea.
Jerusalem Post reports that for the first time, the Israeli Air Force is currently striking the Iranian navy in the Caspian Sea. Axios is also reporting the Caspian action.
WTI futures rebounded late in the day, inching back towards triple-digit territory.
Also, Iran’s Fars News Agency claims IRGC missiles attacked gas facilities in Bahrain:
ATTACK ON LNG REFINERY IN BAHRAIN STILL ONGOING, FARS REPORTS
IRAN’S FARS REPORTS LNG REFINERY IN BAHRAIN TARGETED, DAMAGED
NatGas prices also surged…
A barrage of headlines out of the Middle East today only shows an escalating conflict, as US-Israeli forces targeted upstream Iranian energy assets, including the South Pars gas field, while IRGC forces launched missile strikes across Gulf states in a retaliatory attempt to hit critical energy infrastructure.
The trajectory of the conflict took a turn for the worse today, with a shift toward an economic war focused on degrading each side’s energy production capacity.
* * *
Qatar Confirms New Wave of Missile Strikes on Energy; US Had Foreknowledge of Israeli Attacks on Pars
After the earlier Israeli strikes on Iran’s Pars gas field, Iran’s vowed ‘retaliation’ appears underway, as QatarEnergy has confirmed a wave of missiles on Ras Iaffan Industrial City. Extensive damage has been reported, in what looks to be a significant cross-Gulf attack on Qatar LNG. Emergency services are responding to a fire at the site.
Saudi Arabia has also reported inbound drone action, targeting a gas facility. Fox’s Trey Yingst writes, “This is a major development. Qatari officials spoke out about the strikes earlier today against Iran’s South Pars field over concern that Iran could target their energy infrastructure in response. Ras Laffan is the largest liquefied natural gas export facility in the world.”
Iran’s ‘brutal targeting’ of Ras Laffan industrial site is a direct threat to national security and regional stability:Qatar’s Foreign Ministry
Importantly, the US knew Israel was going to escalate attacks on Iranian energy, with the Pars gas field hit, per AP.
BREAKING: A fire has broken out at Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery following an Iranian attack. The Ras Laffan complex is home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. pic.twitter.com/4XfO4vA9gA
Saudi Arabia Taps East-West Pipeline, Reviving More Than Half Of Its Oil Exports
JPMorgan’s commodities chief, Natasha Kaneva, states that Saudi Arabia has resumed half of its oil exports via the East-West pipeline amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
With Hormuz all but closed, Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil through a 746-mile pipeline to the western port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. At the same time, it has quickly amassed a huge armada of tankers that have steamed toward the Red Sea to load oil and are now piling up around the port.
Earlier today, Iraq began rerouting some crude oil flows through the Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey.
The overall understanding here is that crude can flow out of the Gulf area in other ways besides the Hormuz chokepoint.
US F-35 Damaged By Iranian Fire In First of War; Israeli Refinery Targeted, Iran’s Caspian Fleet Destroyed
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 02:50 PM
Summary
F-35 stealth jet takes on Iranian fire, emergency landing: CNN
Trump dials up threat, seeking leverage, denies approving Israeli Pars strikes; however, reports from The Wall Street Journal and Axios say the White House was aware. US sending more troops to region.
Energy war hits breaking point: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damaged, KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain sites attacked; Saudi trust in Iran “completely shattered.” Iran’s navy in the Caspian Sea reportedly destroyed. Missile strikes key Israeli refinery. Qatari PM confirms damage to 17% of Qatar’s LNG exportcapacity for three to five years.
Europe pushes off-ramp, refuses entry into conflict: Macron urges direct talks “reckless escalation,” while Friedrich Merz signals support for de-escalation—Brussels’ stance: “This is not our war.”
Iran signals not done exacting revenge: IRGC warns retaliation “not yet finished,” vowing escalating strikes across region as Gulf states, Iraq, and shipping lanes absorb widening fallout.
Strait of Hormuz a de facto economic war zone as prices rise at the pump with oil spiraling higher: Iran’s parliament is floating tolls on shipping – weaponizing control.
Europe’s Top Naval Powers See No Short-Term Path To Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint
European leaders are resisting Trump administration pressure to send warships to shadow tankers through the Hormuz chokepoint, citing the heightened risk of Iranian attacks and the lack of a clear U.S. strategy, according to Bloomberg.
UK Defense Minister Al Carns was quoted by the outlet as saying discussions on warship escorts in the Strait of Hormuz are in the “very early stages.”
Carns said allies are currently focused on “trying to conceptualize the totality of the problem and make sure that we’ve got a clear path toward the next stage.”
He warned that the conflict in the Middle East is raging on. The risk is that warship escorts aren’t enough to defend tankers from IRGC drone and missile attacks and naval mines. He said the situation requires a “deeply complex” multinational range of air, maritime, and strike capabilities.
UK Defense Secretary John Healey warned about Iranian naval mines in the Strait.
Earlier, President Trump said that Iran “is close to being demolished, the only thing is the strait: It’s very hard. You could take two people and they could drop little bombs in the water, and they’re holding things up.”
A partially paralyzed Hormuz has also been compounded with Israeli attacks on Iranian upstream energy assets, as well as retaliatory attacks by the IRGC on Qatar’s gas complex. Qatar has warned that its LNG export capacity could be severely hampered for years to come.
Qatar: Energy Strikes to Spark Serious Lasting Repercussions
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani confirmed on Thursday that there were no human casualties while assessing damages at the country’s main LNG export hub, Ras Laffan, which was struck by Iranian missiles. He went on to angrily dismiss Iran’s claim that it was actually targeting US bases, calling the narrative “rejected and unjustified”. Bloomberg: Iran’s strikes to this field has damaged 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for three to five years. And a new alarming headline via Reuters:
QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM
CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA
US F-35 Hit By Iranian Fire, Damaged, In 1st of War
CNN is reporting that a US F-35 stealth fighter jet made an emergency landing at US air base in the Middle East, in an incident confirmed by the Pentagon.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said the advanced fighter was “flying a combat mission over Iran” when it was forced to make an emergency landing. CNN specifies it was based on taking fire from Iranian forces, while the Pentagon has been scant on details, only saying the warplane landed safely and the incident is under investigation.
“The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins said. “This incident is under investigation.”
CNN underscores in its reporting, “The incident would be the first time Iran has hit a US aircraft in the war started in late February. Both the US and Israel are flying F-35s in the conflict; the aircraft costs upwards of $100 million.” However, March 1st saw three US F-16s go down over Kuwait, with six crew ejecting to safety, in what the Pentagon claimed was a ‘friendly fire’ incident. But it raised suspicions the Iranians shot them down.
One regional war correspondent notes: “The Haifa refinery (Bazan) is the country’s largest and most critical fuel facility, supplying about 50–60% of national fuel (≈60% diesel, 50% gasoline).”
Hegseth announced in a Thursday morning Pentagon briefing that the US military – presumably alongside Israel – has completely destroyed Iran’s submarine fleet and significantly damaged the military ports of the Islamic Republic.
We reported earlier that Wednesday into overnight hours saw the first heavy Israeli attacks on vessels in the Caspian Sea, which marked a geographical expanse into the north. Meanwhile there are reports of a successful Iranian hit in the vicinity of Israel’s Haifa oil refinery:
ISRAEL’S BAZAN OIL REFINERIES HIT IN IRAN MISSILE BARRAGE: N12
US Sending More Troops To Region, Eyes Ultra-Risky Kharg/Hormuz Op
There remain few (or no) options for guaranteeing tanker traffic through Hormuz. After the Pentagon bombed some 90 military sites on Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island last weekend, the US is running up against the obvious limitations of a purely air and naval campaign.
In a scenario that screams escalation, discussions now include deploying US troops directly to Iran’s coastline to secure the passage, per Reuters and others. The even more aggressive option is potential ground operations targeting Kharg – again given it is the nerve center handling roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Of course, Trump strongly campaigned against such a scenario as ‘boots on the ground’ in a new regime change war. The admin has also been busy vowing ‘no quagmire’.
Trump Threatens To “Massively Blow Up” South Pars, Tries To Distance US & Israel Ops
In a late-night Truth Social post, President Trump has once again cranked the rhetoric to eleven, warning he’ll “massively blow up” Iran’s crown jewel gas field if Tehran dares hit Qatar’s LNG infrastructure again. Trump insisted the US “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s Israeli strike on the shared South Pars field, claiming neither did Qatar, while simultaneously declaring “no more attacks will be made by Israel”there – unless Iran escalates.
Then came the kicker: “In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before,” he wrote.
However, US media reports have been quick to say otherwise – that the US did actually know about it and greenlit the risky escalation. The Wall Street Journal reports the White House was aware – and also Axios’ Barak Ravid insists so too, and he’s seen as very close to the Israeli government.
Heavy Air War Ongoing Amid Potential Energy Point of No Return
Meanwhile, the Gulf is still being lit up by tit-for-tat major attacks on energy, as Western populations brace for severe impact at the gas pumps. Iran’s retaliation is already hitting energy nodes across the region after Israel’s Wednesday South Pars strike, pushing tensions with neighbors past a potential point of no return. Qatar quickly expelled Iranian military attaches after missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan – its main LNG export hub, while Saudi officials say “the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered.”
The air war is continuing against Iran, with retaliatory strikes still raining down on Israel, but reportedly at slower pace when compared to the opening days of the war. A strike in western Iran’s Dorud county reportedly killed at least a dozen civilians, Al Jazeera has reported.
Iran Signals No Signs Of Stopping Revenge Attacks
Tehran, however, is signaling the opposite of de-escalation, perhaps seeing Trump’s latest Truth Social post claiming no foreknowledge of the Israeli attack on Pars as a sign of weakness. A spokesman for the IRGC Khatam has newly warned retaliation is “not yet finished,” adding:
“We warn the enemy that you made a major mistake by attacking the energy infrastructure of … Iran… the next attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until their complete destruction.”
Kuwait: Iranian drones attacked one of the largest oil refineries, Al-Ahmadi Refinery.
The last 24 hours saw unprecedented destruction on key Gulf energy sites, summarized in the following:
Separately, UAE authorities said they were responding to incidents at the Habshan gas facilities and at the Bab oilfield caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles. The Abu Dhabi Media Office said the facilities were shut down and no injuries were reported.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh on Wednesday and an attempted drone attack on a gas facility in its east. On Thursday, Iran targeted the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain were also reported.
Elsewhere, Iraq has shut its airspace, vessels are taking hits in the Gulf, with on Wednesday Trade Winds having reported: “A ship is on fire after being hit by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates deepwater port of Khor Fakkan.”
WTI-Brent Spread Explodes As U.S. Export Ban Priced In
RBC Capital Markets analyst Julian Triscott told clients, “Our boots on the ground in D.C. suggest the administration favors a crude export tariff over an outright ban, though a full ban remains a tail risk.”
Triscott said the Trump administration is likely weighing intervention in the oil market as gasoline and diesel prices at the pump surge, with a crude export tariff seen as more likely than an outright export ban, though the analyst said a full ban is still a major risk.
Triscott said the idea would be to shield U.S. consumers by making crude exports less attractive to foreign buyers, while potentially offsetting the impact with a pause or reduction in the federal fuel excise tax.
Triscott pointed out that traders are already beginning to price in this next intervention, with the WTI–Brent spread widening to its highest level since about 2012.
Triscott’s conversation with sources in D.C. about what the Trump administration may do next to combat surging pump prices comes as the Trump administration appears to be following the six-option playbook laid out by JPMorgan analysts last week.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration waived the Jones Act to allow foreign vessels to ship crude to US ports. That was Option 3 on the list, while last week’s SPR release was Option 1. Option 2 is export restrictions.
We suspect the administration is following the six-point playbook, and here’s what may come next (read the report).
Energy Market Shockwaves After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets
Brent crude futures surged toward $120/bbl, while WTI remained muted around $96/bbl, as Wednesday marked a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli fighter jets struck Iran’s giant South Pars gas field with air-delivered munitions, triggering a retaliatory chain reaction in which IRGC forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Iranian drone and missile strikes caused heavy damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, while gas plants in Abu Dhabi shut down, Kuwaiti refineries were hit by drones, and Saudi refining assets on the Red Sea were targeted.
Unlike temporary shipping disruptions in the Gulf waters or the Strait of Hormuz, damage to upstream energy assets, such as production and LNG facilities, is far more serious and could take months or even years to repair, raising the risk of prolonged tight global supply.
Some 20% of global LNG exports originate from Gulf countries, and the latest round of Israeli and IRGC attacks on upstream energy assets shows how the conflict has entered an entirely new phase where energy infrastructure is being directly targeted.
Disruptions at Qatar’s LNG facilities threaten to tighten the global gas market, with ripple effects quickly spreading worldwide – across Asia, Europe, and even U.S. gas prices.
European natural gas benchmark futures jumped as much as 35% today, pushing prices to more than double their pre-war levels, as traders brace for what only appears to be a prolonged period of disruption from critical LNG hubs that account for a fifth of the world’s total supply.
QatarEnergy warned earlier that LNG facilities inside its Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, “causing sizable fires and extensive further damage.”
“This could be a game changer for the LNG industry, akin to the attack on Nord Stream or possibly even worse,” Susan Sakmar, visiting assistant professor at the University of Houston Law Center, said, quoted by Bloomberg. “This is a sudden disruption, with no indication that Qatar could restart anytime soon.”
Global Risk Management analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warned, “LNG from Qatar could in principle be offline for months and, in the worst case, for years. For the gas market, the crisis does not end simply because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”
UBS analyst Matt Salmon commented on the exploding energy risk premia due to overnight war developments:
Geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex rose further following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, after President Trump failed earlier this week to establish an international coalition to support the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a clear escalation of hostilities, Iranian energy infrastructure was targeted for the first time in the conflict, with Israel striking the South Pars gas field, while the US claimed no prior knowledge.
Iran had warned early in the conflict that there would be “no red lines” around retaliatory actions, and it made good on this threat with two strikes in less than 12 hours on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest LNG facility, with state operator QatarEnergy reporting “extensive damage.”
Trump subsequently pressed for de-escalation of attacks on gas facilities in Iran, but moves in Brent were muted, reflecting diminishing confidence that the US has a credible off-ramp. Brent crude is currently trading around $112/bbl, Asian LNG prices are above $20/bbl, and Asian refining margin proxies exceed $40/bbl, amid rising investor anxiety over disruptions to global fuel and gas supplies.
Macron Urges Direct Talks: ‘Return to Reason’
At a moment Gulf shipping lanes are freezing up with tankers idling in the Gulf of Oman waiting for a greenlight through what’s been for most a no-go zone, Iranian lawmakers have proposed a plan to impose tolls and taxes on ships passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz– which of course would not include passage of US and Israeli ships, or others deemed participants of Operation Epic Fury.
Europe is watching nervously from the sidelines, itching for some kind of presentable offramp, also after NATO allies this week snubbed joining Trump’s coalition to seek to militarily open the strait back up to global shipping. Germany’s Friedrich Merz welcomed signals that Trump might dial things back, saying “I am particularly grateful that the US president sent a signal last night that he prepared to bring the fighting to an end” – while France’s Emmanuel Macron warned of a “reckless escalation” as energy infrastructure becomes the primary battlefield, and so has called for direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Here’s what he said in part before an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday:
“We will obviously defend a de-escalation, a return to stability in the Middle East,” Macron said, adding that he spoke to Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Donald Trump about the war on Wednesday night.
“I think that everyone should calm down and the fighting should stop at least for a few days to try to give negotiations a chance again,” the French leader added. “I hope that, in any case, everyone will return to reason.”
END
THIS CAUSED OIL TO FALL
Netanyahu Declares Iran’s Nuclear Program & Missile Production “Destroyed” – Denies Israel Influenced Trump
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 04:05 PM
Summary
Netanyahu: Iran can no longer enrich Uranium; missile production destroyed; says Israel acted alone against Pars oil field; claims Trump was not influenced by Israel to go to war.
F-35 stealth jet takes on Iranian fire, emergency landing: CNN
Trump dials up threat, seeking leverage, denies approving Israeli Pars strikes; however, reports from The Wall Street Journal and Axios say the White House was aware. US sending more troops to region.
Energy war hits breaking point: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damaged, KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain sites attacked; Saudi trust in Iran “completely shattered.” Iran’s navy in the Caspian Sea reportedly destroyed. Missile strikes key Israeli refinery. Qatari PM confirms damage to 17% of Qatar’s LNG exportcapacity for three to five years.
Iran signals not done exacting revenge: IRGC warns retaliation “not yet finished,” vowing escalating strikes across region as Gulf states, Iraq, and shipping lanes absorb widening fallout.
Strait of Hormuz a de facto economic war zone as prices rise at the pump with oil spiraling higher: Iran’s parliament is floating tolls on shipping – weaponizing control.
Netanyahu: Iran Can No Longer Enrich Uranium; Missile Production Destroyed; Acted Against Pars Alone
In a rare wartime press conference, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu opened with a jab at rumors about his condition: “First of all… I’m alive.” He went on to claim that Israel and the US are “protecting the entire Middle East… the entire world” – and after 20 days, he asserted: “we are winning, and Iran is being decimated.” Netanyahu further claimed that Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles are being “massively degraded” and “will be destroyed,” framing the campaign as an all-out dismantling of Tehran’s capabilities. Bust most importantly he said production capability has been ended.
He further addressed claims Israel dragged the US into war, calling it “fake news” and adding: “Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Donald Trump what to do? Come on.” He praised tight US-Israel coordination: “We are achieving goals in lightning speed” – and said he and Trump “see eye to eye,” adding the world “owes a debt… to President Trump for leading this effort.” He also stated that Israel acted against Pars alone, but that he will hold off on ordering future such attacks without US consent. Netanyahu also said the war will end “much sooner than people think”. And another key aspect to his remarks:
Iran No Longer Able to Enrich Uranium
Iran Lost Ability to Manufacture Missiles
US, Israel Destroyed Iran’s Fleet in Caspian Sea
“What we’re destroying now are the factories that produce the components to make these missiles and to make the nuclear weapons that they’re trying to produce,” Netanyahu said, however without providing evidence of the claim. Just before he spoke, Israel’s military said it anticipates the anti-Iran campaign is only half complete.
NOW – Netanyahu: "I want to close these opening remarks with one other fake news, and that is that Israel somehow dragged the U.S. into a conflict with Iran. Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on!" pic.twitter.com/eYXzvqReJp
Iran through its Foreign Minister has made clear on Thursday it will show “zero restraint” if energy infrastructure is targeted again. President Trump on the same day responded to reports the US has sent more troops to the region.
Europe’s Top Naval Powers See No Short-Term Path To Reopening Hormuz Chokepoint
European leaders are resisting Trump administration pressure to send warships to shadow tankers through the Hormuz chokepoint, citing the heightened risk of Iranian attacks and the lack of a clear U.S. strategy, according to Bloomberg.
UK Defense Minister Al Carns was quoted by the outlet as saying discussions on warship escorts in the Strait of Hormuz are in the “very early stages.”
Carns said allies are currently focused on “trying to conceptualize the totality of the problem and make sure that we’ve got a clear path toward the next stage.”
He warned that the conflict in the Middle East is raging on. The risk is that warship escorts aren’t enough to defend tankers from IRGC drone and missile attacks and naval mines. He said the situation requires a “deeply complex” multinational range of air, maritime, and strike capabilities.
UK Defense Secretary John Healey warned about Iranian naval mines in the Strait.
Earlier, President Trump said that Iran “is close to being demolished, the only thing is the strait: It’s very hard. You could take two people and they could drop little bombs in the water, and they’re holding things up.”
A partially paralyzed Hormuz has also been compounded with Israeli attacks on Iranian upstream energy assets, as well as retaliatory attacks by the IRGC on Qatar’s gas complex. Qatar has warned that its LNG export capacity could be severely hampered for years to come.
Qatar: Energy Strikes to Spark Serious Lasting Repercussions
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani confirmed on Thursday that there were no human casualties while assessing damages at the country’s main LNG export hub, Ras Laffan, which was struck by Iranian missiles. He went on to angrily dismiss Iran’s claim that it was actually targeting US bases, calling the narrative “rejected and unjustified”. Bloomberg: Iran’s strikes to this field has damaged 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for three to five years. And a new alarming headline via Reuters:
QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM
CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA
US F-35 Hit By Iranian Fire, Damaged, In 1st of War
CNN is reporting that a US F-35 stealth fighter jet made an emergency landing at US air base in the Middle East, in an incident confirmed by the Pentagon.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said the advanced fighter was “flying a combat mission over Iran” when it was forced to make an emergency landing. CNN specifies it was based on taking fire from Iranian forces, while the Pentagon has been scant on details, only saying the warplane landed safely and the incident is under investigation.
“The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins said. “This incident is under investigation.”
CNN underscores in its reporting, “The incident would be the first time Iran has hit a US aircraft in the war started in late February. Both the US and Israel are flying F-35s in the conflict; the aircraft costs upwards of $100 million.” However, March 1st saw three US F-16s go down over Kuwait, with six crew ejecting to safety, in what the Pentagon claimed was a ‘friendly fire’ incident. But it raised suspicions the Iranians shot them down.
One regional war correspondent notes: “The Haifa refinery (Bazan) is the country’s largest and most critical fuel facility, supplying about 50–60% of national fuel (≈60% diesel, 50% gasoline).”
Hegseth announced in a Thursday morning Pentagon briefing that the US military – presumably alongside Israel – has completely destroyed Iran’s submarine fleet and significantly damaged the military ports of the Islamic Republic.
We reported earlier that Wednesday into overnight hours saw the first heavy Israeli attacks on vessels in the Caspian Sea, which marked a geographical expanse into the north. Meanwhile there are reports of a successful Iranian hit in the vicinity of Israel’s Haifa oil refinery:
ISRAEL’S BAZAN OIL REFINERIES HIT IN IRAN MISSILE BARRAGE: N12
US Sending More Troops To Region, Eyes Ultra-Risky Kharg/Hormuz Op
There remain few (or no) options for guaranteeing tanker traffic through Hormuz. After the Pentagon bombed some 90 military sites on Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island last weekend, the US is running up against the obvious limitations of a purely air and naval campaign.
In a scenario that screams escalation, discussions now include deploying US troops directly to Iran’s coastline to secure the passage, per Reuters and others. The even more aggressive option is potential ground operations targeting Kharg – again given it is the nerve center handling roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Of course, Trump strongly campaigned against such a scenario as ‘boots on the ground’ in a new regime change war. The admin has also been busy vowing ‘no quagmire’.
Trump Threatens To “Massively Blow Up” South Pars, Tries To Distance US & Israel Ops
In a late-night Truth Social post, President Trump has once again cranked the rhetoric to eleven, warning he’ll “massively blow up” Iran’s crown jewel gas field if Tehran dares hit Qatar’s LNG infrastructure again. Trump insisted the US “knew nothing” about Wednesday’s Israeli strike on the shared South Pars field, claiming neither did Qatar, while simultaneously declaring “no more attacks will be made by Israel”there – unless Iran escalates.
Then came the kicker: “In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before,” he wrote.
However, US media reports have been quick to say otherwise – that the US did actually know about it and greenlit the risky escalation. The Wall Street Journal reports the White House was aware – and also Axios’ Barak Ravid insists so too, and he’s seen as very close to the Israeli government.
Heavy Air War Ongoing Amid Potential Energy Point of No Return
Meanwhile, the Gulf is still being lit up by tit-for-tat major attacks on energy, as Western populations brace for severe impact at the gas pumps. Iran’s retaliation is already hitting energy nodes across the region after Israel’s Wednesday South Pars strike, pushing tensions with neighbors past a potential point of no return. Qatar quickly expelled Iranian military attaches after missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan – its main LNG export hub, while Saudi officials say “the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered.”
The air war is continuing against Iran, with retaliatory strikes still raining down on Israel, but reportedly at slower pace when compared to the opening days of the war. A strike in western Iran’s Dorud county reportedly killed at least a dozen civilians, Al Jazeera has reported.
Iran Signals No Signs Of Stopping Revenge Attacks
Tehran, however, is signaling the opposite of de-escalation, perhaps seeing Trump’s latest Truth Social post claiming no foreknowledge of the Israeli attack on Pars as a sign of weakness. A spokesman for the IRGC Khatam has newly warned retaliation is “not yet finished,” adding:
“We warn the enemy that you made a major mistake by attacking the energy infrastructure of … Iran… the next attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until their complete destruction.”
Kuwait: Iranian drones attacked one of the largest oil refineries, Al-Ahmadi Refinery.
The last 24 hours saw unprecedented destruction on key Gulf energy sites, summarized in the following:
Separately, UAE authorities said they were responding to incidents at the Habshan gas facilities and at the Bab oilfield caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles. The Abu Dhabi Media Office said the facilities were shut down and no injuries were reported.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh on Wednesday and an attempted drone attack on a gas facility in its east. On Thursday, Iran targeted the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain were also reported.
Elsewhere, Iraq has shut its airspace, vessels are taking hits in the Gulf, with on Wednesday Trade Winds having reported: “A ship is on fire after being hit by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates deepwater port of Khor Fakkan.”
WTI-Brent Spread Explodes As U.S. Export Ban Priced In
RBC Capital Markets analyst Julian Triscott told clients, “Our boots on the ground in D.C. suggest the administration favors a crude export tariff over an outright ban, though a full ban remains a tail risk.”
Triscott said the Trump administration is likely weighing intervention in the oil market as gasoline and diesel prices at the pump surge, with a crude export tariff seen as more likely than an outright export ban, though the analyst said a full ban is still a major risk.
Triscott said the idea would be to shield U.S. consumers by making crude exports less attractive to foreign buyers, while potentially offsetting the impact with a pause or reduction in the federal fuel excise tax.
Triscott pointed out that traders are already beginning to price in this next intervention, with the WTI–Brent spread widening to its highest level since about 2012.
Triscott’s conversation with sources in D.C. about what the Trump administration may do next to combat surging pump prices comes as the Trump administration appears to be following the six-option playbook laid out by JPMorgan analysts last week.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration waived the Jones Act to allow foreign vessels to ship crude to US ports. That was Option 3 on the list, while last week’s SPR release was Option 1. Option 2 is export restrictions.
We suspect the administration is following the six-point playbook, and here’s what may come next (read the report).
Energy Market Shockwaves After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets
Brent crude futures surged toward $120/bbl, while WTI remained muted around $96/bbl, as Wednesday marked a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli fighter jets struck Iran’s giant South Pars gas field with air-delivered munitions, triggering a retaliatory chain reaction in which IRGC forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Iranian drone and missile strikes caused heavy damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, while gas plants in Abu Dhabi shut down, Kuwaiti refineries were hit by drones, and Saudi refining assets on the Red Sea were targeted.
Unlike temporary shipping disruptions in the Gulf waters or the Strait of Hormuz, damage to upstream energy assets, such as production and LNG facilities, is far more serious and could take months or even years to repair, raising the risk of prolonged tight global supply.
Some 20% of global LNG exports originate from Gulf countries, and the latest round of Israeli and IRGC attacks on upstream energy assets shows how the conflict has entered an entirely new phase where energy infrastructure is being directly targeted.
Disruptions at Qatar’s LNG facilities threaten to tighten the global gas market, with ripple effects quickly spreading worldwide – across Asia, Europe, and even U.S. gas prices.
European natural gas benchmark futures jumped as much as 35% today, pushing prices to more than double their pre-war levels, as traders brace for what only appears to be a prolonged period of disruption from critical LNG hubs that account for a fifth of the world’s total supply.
QatarEnergy warned earlier that LNG facilities inside its Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, “causing sizable fires and extensive further damage.”
“This could be a game changer for the LNG industry, akin to the attack on Nord Stream or possibly even worse,” Susan Sakmar, visiting assistant professor at the University of Houston Law Center, said, quoted by Bloomberg. “This is a sudden disruption, with no indication that Qatar could restart anytime soon.”
Global Risk Management analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warned, “LNG from Qatar could in principle be offline for months and, in the worst case, for years. For the gas market, the crisis does not end simply because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”
UBS analyst Matt Salmon commented on the exploding energy risk premia due to overnight war developments:
Geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex rose further following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, after President Trump failed earlier this week to establish an international coalition to support the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a clear escalation of hostilities, Iranian energy infrastructure was targeted for the first time in the conflict, with Israel striking the South Pars gas field, while the US claimed no prior knowledge.
Iran had warned early in the conflict that there would be “no red lines” around retaliatory actions, and it made good on this threat with two strikes in less than 12 hours on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest LNG facility, with state operator QatarEnergy reporting “extensive damage.”
Trump subsequently pressed for de-escalation of attacks on gas facilities in Iran, but moves in Brent were muted, reflecting diminishing confidence that the US has a credible off-ramp. Brent crude is currently trading around $112/bbl, Asian LNG prices are above $20/bbl, and Asian refining margin proxies exceed $40/bbl, amid rising investor anxiety over disruptions to global fuel and gas supplies.
Macron Urges Direct Talks: ‘Return to Reason’
At a moment Gulf shipping lanes are freezing up with tankers idling in the Gulf of Oman waiting for a greenlight through what’s been for most a no-go zone, Iranian lawmakers have proposed a plan to impose tolls and taxes on ships passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz– which of course would not include passage of US and Israeli ships, or others deemed participants of Operation Epic Fury.
Europe is watching nervously from the sidelines, itching for some kind of presentable offramp, also after NATO allies this week snubbed joining Trump’s coalition to seek to militarily open the strait back up to global shipping. Germany’s Friedrich Merz welcomed signals that Trump might dial things back, saying “I am particularly grateful that the US president sent a signal last night that he prepared to bring the fighting to an end” – while France’s Emmanuel Macron warned of a “reckless escalation” as energy infrastructure becomes the primary battlefield, and so has called for direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Here’s what he said in part before an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday:
“We will obviously defend a de-escalation, a return to stability in the Middle East,” Macron said, adding that he spoke to Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Donald Trump about the war on Wednesday night.
“I think that everyone should calm down and the fighting should stop at least for a few days to try to give negotiations a chance again,” the French leader added. “I hope that, in any case, everyone will return to reason.”
Mayor Lauren Simpson (Arvada, CO) has breast cancer; Josh Gad’s mother felled by “undisclosed medical emergency”; influencer Mickey Blanc rushed to hospital because of “frightening medical emergency”
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles has early-stage breast cancer and is seeking treatment, but she will remain in her role, President Donald Trump announced on Monday. “Unfortunately, she has been diagnosed with early stage breast cancer, and has decided to take on this challenge, IMMEDIATELY, as opposed to waiting,” the president wrote in a post on Truth Social. “She has a fantastic medical team, and her prognosis is excellent! During the treatment period, she will be spending virtually full time at the White House, which makes me, as President, very happy!” Trump said that Wiles is “one of my closest and most important advisors” and is “tough and deeply committed to serving the American People.” Wiles, 68, told the New York Times in an interview that the disease was caught in its early stages.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIR
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
HUGE STORY
US LNG Export Terminals “Running Near Maximum” As MidEast Energy Infra Descends Into Chaos
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 03:45 PM
The attacks on upstream oil/gas assets across the Middle East this week sparked turmoil across global energy markets.
Israel set off the chain reaction with its attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday morning, followed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Qatar’s LNG plant, Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub, and other targets across the surrounding Gulf states.
This week’s attacks on critical upstream energy facilities across the Middle East, by both Iran and Israel, suggest the risk of prolonged outages and tighter global gas markets.
Iranian ballistic missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City in two waves over 12 hours on March 18-19, causing extensive damage to both the Shell-QatarEnergy Pearl GTL facility and the LNG complex. The Pearl GTL complex, the world’s largest gas-to-liquids facility processing approximately 1.6 Bcf/d of feed gas, was hit first on Wednesday evening. A second wave early Thursday struck LNG facilities directly. QatarEnergy confirmed sizeable fires and extensive further damage but did not specify which trains were affected.
Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported five ballistic missiles were fired at the complex; four were intercepted, and the fifth struck home. No casualties were reported, and all personnel had been evacuated hours earlier after the IRGC issued explicit warnings naming Ras Laffan among five energy complexes across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar that it designated as targets. The fires have been showing up on NASA satellite flyovers, affirming the situation on-site.
The attacks were retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field. The IRGC named five energy complexes across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as targets. Key developments across the Gulf:
Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles targeting Riyadh and the eastern region
UAE shut its Habshan gas facility and Bab oil and gas field after falling debris from intercepts
Brent crude briefly touched $119/bbl before settling around $114; TTF jumped 16%+ to 63.7 euros/MWh
Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to tanker traffic
Trump warned the U.S. would destroy the entirety of South Pars if Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG facilities again
What’s Offline
Ras Laffan houses roughly 77 MTPA of liquefaction capacity, approximately 20% of global LNG supply. That capacity had already been offline since March 2, when earlier Iranian drone strikes forced a halt and triggered force majeure. The market initially treated the shutdown as temporary. Confirmed physical damage from this week’s strikes changes the calculus:
Prior restart estimates assumed 2 weeks to resume + 2 weeks to stabilize
Structural damage to LNG trains, if confirmed, could push the timeline to months or years
Pearl GTL alone may face a multi-year outage if reports of destroyed air separation units prove accurate
US LNG: Running Full Out Into the Gap
While roughly a fifth of global LNG supply sits offline and damaged in Qatar, US export terminals are running at or near maximum capacity.
Per Criterion Research, total US LNG feed gas flows surged to 19,982 MMcf/d on March 19, recovering sharply from a brief dip the prior day. The current weekly average of approximately 19,883 MMcf/d represents a step-up from last week’s 19,731 MMcf/d, and forward nominations suggest flows could climb toward 20,234 MMcf/d in the days ahead as commissioning activity progresses at multiple facilities.
The Math
Qatar’s 77 MTPA offline equates to roughly 10.2 Bcf/d removed from the global market. US terminals at ~20 Bcf/d cannot physically replace it. No combination of non-Qatari suppliers can.
Goldman Sachs estimated a one-month Hormuz halt could drive TTF toward 74 euros/MWh, the threshold that triggered demand destruction during the 2022 European energy crisis. We are now well past one month of disruption, with infrastructure damage escalating. European storage sits at ~29% full, down 20+ points YoY, with injection season starting in April. In Asia, Qatar supplied ~53% of India’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s, and 99% of Pakistan’s.
Every incremental MTPA of new US capacity, whether from Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3, or Plaquemines, now carries outsized significance. The commissioning trajectory at these facilities is no longer a corporate milestone. It is a global supply security question.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1525 DOWN 0.0014
USA/ YEN 158.97 UP 0.062 // NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3347N DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3699 UP 0.0011 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 13.08 PTS OR 0.32%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 524.84 OR OR 2.02%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.58%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 524.84PTS OR 2.02%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 56.43 PTS OR 1.39%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.58%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1866.87PTS OR 3.38%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 4750.60
silver:$72.20
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.31
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 86.56 ROUBLE// DOWN2 ROUBLE AND 26 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: XXXDOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: XXX DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: XX DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; XX DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 99..02 DOWN 82 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.375% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.222% DOWN 4 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.498 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.438 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.740 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9396 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1503 DOWN 0.0033 OR 33 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.51 UP 0.600 OR YEN IS DOWN 60 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8350 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.358 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid ‘Uncertain Implications’ Of War With Iran
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026 – 03:40 PM
Tl;dr: Rates on hold as expected with a hawkish tilt to ‘uncertainty’ around the Iran war clouding the outlook. The Dot-Plot showed no real change (7 on hold, 12 at least 1 cut in 2026) but inflation expectations surged in the SEP.
* * *
A lot – and we mean a lot – has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th).
Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also down notably while the dollar has strengthened…
Both growth and inflation data have outperformed since the last FOMC meeting (but as the chart shows, fears are rising over stagflation as the impact of higher energy prices – and tighter financial conditions – could weigh on growth)…
Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have collapsed since the last FOMC meeting (most notably since the war began) with less than one full cut now priced in…
The market is priced for absolutely nothing to happen today (from a rate change perspective – higher or lower), so all eyes will be on the number of dissents, the new set of SEP (dots) data, and any commentary on the economy and/or the impact of the war.
Expectations are for a continuation of a “hawkish hold” amid heightened uncertainty.
FOMC Statement
Rates remain on hold with one dissent
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN 11-1 VOTE
*FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT
Fed statement comparison: exactly as expected.
Very little changes, small downgrade to labor market (“some signs of stabilization” to “little changed in recent months”),
…and brief discussion or Iran war (“implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain”)
MUFG’s George Goncalves says this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.
“The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”
Dots: Statement of Economic Projections
*FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027
The new dots show 7 Fed members preferring to hold for the rest of the year with 12 preferring at least 1 more cut…
In 2027, there is now only one member who sees a rate-hike…
So, rather interestingly, The Fed left the dots basically unchanged from December but spiked inflation expectations for 2027 for both headline and core to 2.7% (vs 2.4% and 2.5%)
As Bloomberg’s Ira Jersey noted:
“Somewhat less obvious in the statement about Middle East led-uncertainty, but the higher inflation expectations in the SEP are certainly a sign the Fed is more concerned about current oil inflation, and less about next year. So a level shift is more or less built into their forecasts.“
Now all eyes turn to Powell to see how ‘hawkish’ this hold is?
END
DATA RELEASES
US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 10:09 AM
Despite falling mortgage rates, analysts expected December’s drop in new home sales to accelerate in January… and accelerate they did… crashing a stunning 17.6% MoM (-2.7% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since July 2013.
This huge MoM drop dragged sales down 11.3% YoY – the worst slide in three years…
Source: Bloomberg
This huge drop dragged the new home sales SAAR down to its lowest since 2022, catching down to existing and pending sales…
Inventories are up (Houses for sale in Jan. rose 0.4% m/m to 476,000), prices are down (Median down 6.8% YoY at $400k – lowest since 2024)…
…and remember these deals were signed in January – meaning this is not mortgage related (some suggesting weather impact – Northeast sales down 44.7% MoM, MidWest -33.9% MoM, but the scale is immense).
Of course, the future could get pretty dark as mortgage rates have surged since the war in Iran began…
…so much for helping ‘affordability’. Looks like homebuilders are going to be ‘incentivizing’ a lot more soon.
WRAP UP
Oil slides on US supply prospects; Short-end yields rise as G10 central banks hold firm – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 – 04:06 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold down
REAR VIEW: Israeli PM says war may be over soon than people think; Israel says attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field is likely not be repeated; Iran missile hits Bazan oil refinery in Haifa; Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port reportedly resumes oil loadings after stoppage following attacks; White House will not implement a crude export ban; Bessent says US could do another SPR release; US initial claims fall W/W, Continued Claims rise; New Home Sales drop beneath expectations; BoJ, ECB, BoE, SNB, and Riksbank all keep rates unchanged as expected; ECB source reports noted officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting; Atlanta Fed GDPnow Q1 model revised lower; MU earnings beat, capex outlook raises concerns.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US stocks were largely lower at the close, but well off lows after remarks from Israeli PM Netanyahu, who said Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles, sparking optimism that they are close to achieving their goals, and added that the war may be over sooner than people think. The rebound was capped, however, as he added that they will continue to hunt down the leaders of the IRGC, and the campaign will take as long as necessary. His remarks helped oil prices to ease (they were already falling), while stocks and bonds rallied. Sectors were mixed: Energy was the sole outperformer as demand for refined products remains elevated, while Materials lagged as metals were hit in response to five G10 central banks (BoJ, ECB, BoE, SNB, Riksbank) following in the footsteps of the Fed on Wednesday, holding rates amid uncertainty over the economic impacts from the Middle East conflict. Gold fell to as low as USD 4,502/oz, while silver hit troughs of USD 65.50, as global yields marched higher along the front end of the curve, before trimming later on. In Tech, Micron reported strong earnings and guidance; however, its capex outlook drove concerns about gross margins. Treasuries saw a bid in response to the Netanyahu comments, yet yields remained higher on the day for the US 2-, 3-, and 5-yr tenors. Back to energy, before Netanyahu’s remarks, crude was seeing downside as markets took focus to developments in the US could do another SPR release to keep prices down and may un-sanction Iranian oil on the water soon; there were also reports that the White House will not implement a crude export ban (which saw Brent’s premium to WTI narrow), and additionally, Chevron said it was restarting its jet fuel unit at its 285k bpd El Segundo refinery, five months after a major fire disrupted operations.
US
NEW HOME SALES: New Home Sales of new single-family houses dropped to 587k in January from 712k, beneath the expected 722k. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 476K +0.4% M/M. This represents a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate, +21.3% M/M. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was USD 400,500, -4.5% M/M. Pantheon Macroeconomics attributes snowstorms in January as the likely main driver of the sharp decline in the headline. It adds that median new home prices will need a much bigger drop to attract enough demand to drain the excess inventory built up over the last three years
CLAIMS: Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 205k from 213k (exp. 215k), leaving the 4-week average marginally lower at 210.75k (prev. 211.5k). Unadjusted, initial claims declined by 16.8k to 190k. Seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 8,751, -4.2% W/W. Losses were most visible in California (-4,022), Missouri (-3,324), New York (-2,753), Pennsylvania (-1,689), and Virginia (-1,560). Kentucky saw the most notable increase, +3,310. Oxford Economics says the report’s figures are consistent “with our view that while labour-market conditions have stabilised and layoffs appear to remain low, the US/Israel war with Iran has made the no-hire, no-fire labour market more vulnerable”. Continuing Claims rose to 1.857mln despite expectations for an unchanged reading at 1.850mln. The firm thinks that, based on the recent behaviour of initial claims, continued claims are most likely to be range-bound in the weeks ahead
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 10+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-07
T-notes flatten on hawkish central bank expectations in response to the Iran war. At settlement, 2-year -1.2bps at 3.767%, 3-year -1.0bps at 3.769%, 5-year -1.0bps at 3.866%, 7-year -1.2bps at 4.045%, 10-year -2.5bps at 4.240%, 20-year -4.3bps at 4.824%, 30-year -5.4bps at 4.831%.
THE DAY: T-notes flattened on Thursday, with the long end outperforming the front end. Powell leaned hawkish last night, while the BoE and ECB also leaned hawkish. The BoE voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold while also removing the language that rates are likely to be reduced further, but it did keep the optionality for erasing open if the shock proves to be short-lived. Also, Bailey tried to temper rate hike expectations in the wake of the meeting. The ECB also held rates and announced it is taking a wait-and-see approach, but sources suggested that discussions of possible ECB hikes may need to start in April, unless there is a quick resolution in the Middle East. Heading into the week, it was largely thought that global central banks would be looking through some of the energy price pressures, but after the Fed, BoE and ECB, that is clearly not the case, particularly if the war becomes prolonged. Meanwhile, oil prices remain volatile with Brent hitting USD 119/bbl once again this morning after Iran struck energy infrastructure across the Middle East, with the peaks seen after it targeted the Yanbu Port in Saudi Arabia, ultimately leading to a stoppage of oil loadings. However, crude prices pared as US updates weighed. Reports in Politico suggested the White House is not going to implement a crude export ban, which hit Brent but supported WTI on the prospects of there being more US oil available for the world. Oil prices were further weighed, and as such, T-Notes were bid amid Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s presser, where he said Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles, sparking optimism that their goals are close to being achieved. Economic data saw initial jobless claims drop while continued claims rose marginally, while New Home sales were soft, but the market focus was largely on the central bank’s reaction functions to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
SUPPLY
Notes
US sold USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on March 19th.
US to sell USD 69bln of 2-year notes on Tuesday, March 24th, USD 70bln of 5-year notes on Wednesday, March 25th and USD 44bln of 7-year notes on Thursday, March 26th; all to settle March 31st
To sell USD 28bln reopened 2-year FRN on March 25th; to settle March 27th.
Bills
US to sell USD 77bln of 26-week bills and USD 89bln of 13-week bills on March 23rd; to sell USD 80bln of 6-week bills on March 24th; all to settle March 26th
Bills
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Rate Cut Pricing: April +2.8bps (prev. +2.3bps), June +1.6bps (prev. +1.1bps), July +0.0bps (prev. -3.5bps), December -7.9bps (prev. -15.4bps)
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.637bln (prev. 0.698bln) across 5 counterparties (prev. 6)
SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.65%), volumes at USD 3.092tln (prev. USD 3.146tln) on March 18th
EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 93bln (prev. USD 93bln) on March 18th
CRUDE
WTI (K6) SETTLED USD 0.09 HIGHER AT USD 95.55/BBL; BRENT (K6) SETTLED USD 1.27 HIGHER AT USD 108.65/BBL
Crude prices were pressured in afternoon trading, on a few factors: 1) Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US could do another SPR release to keep prices down and may un-sanction Iranian oil on the water soon; 2) Reports that the White House will not implement a crude export ban; 3) Chevron restarting jet fuel unit at its 285k bpd El Segundo refinery, five months after a major fire disrupted operations. Meanwhile, Israeli officials said the attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field will likely not be repeated, a welcome prospect if realised, as Iran’s response further disrupted oil markets, briefly leaving Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port stopping oil loadings. Brent’s premium to WTI narrowed, as more US supply is to remain available for trade with other countries. WTI finished little changed, within the range between 92.10-100.48, while Brent held onto gains, trading within 103.76-119.13.
In post-settlement trade, crude futures saw further downside amid remarks from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who said the war will end sooner than people think; he also said that Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles, the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s fleet in the Caspian, and Israel is helping the US open the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu also confirmed that it was Israel’s decision to target the South Pars field, and Trump asked Israel to hold off on such attacks in the future. On oil prices, he said they are rising, but will fall quickly.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.27% at 6,607, NDX -0.29% at 24,355, DJI -0.44% at 46,022, RUT +0.65% at 2,495
SECTORS: Materials -1.55%, Consumer Discretionary -0.87%, Consumer Staples -0.84%, Industrials -0.67%, Communication Services -0.58%, Utilities -0.47%, Health -0.39%, Real Estate -0.23%, Technology unch, Financials +0.02%, Energy +1.48%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -2.10% at 5,616, Dax 40 -2.84% at 22,860, FTSE 100 -2.43% at 10,055, CAC 40 -2.03% at 7,808, FTSE MIB -2.42% at 43,661, IBEX 35 -2.38% at 16,887, PSI -2.06% at 8,947, SMI -2.39% at 12,454, AEX -2.24% at 978
STOCK SPECIFICS
Micron (MU): Concerns over peak GM from capex outweigh earnings beat.
Alibaba (BABA): Profit and rev. missed.
Align Technology (ALGN): Elliott Investment Management takes a significant stake.
Rivian (RIVN): Partnered with Uber on Robotaxis; Uber to invest $1.25B in Rivian.
Five Below (FIVE): Q metrics & guidance beat.
Accenture (ACN): FY profit outlook missed.
JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) reportedly offer hedge funds a way to short private credit, according to reports.
FX
The dollar was on the backfoot on Thursday amid a slew of G10 central bank rate announcements, where the theme was similar to that of the Fed on Wednesday: hold for now, until gaining further clarity on economic impacts from the Middle East conflict. US data sent no flash warnings as initial claims unexpectedly fell while continued claims remain well within YTD ranges. Global fixed income traded lower as markets gripped with the fact over the day that most major central banks aren’t going anywhere for now, with precious metals seeing heavy losses in response. Energy updates had impacts on intraday moves in the oil complex (US won’t ban crude exports, may release more from SPR), but ultimately, moves in the dollar were a result of higher rates in peers becoming hard to ignore. Later in the afternoon, large moves followed Israeli PM Netanyahu’s press conference, which sparked risk-on across markets, and further deterioration in the USD. He said Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of war, and the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s fleet in the Caspian. DXY started the day above 100, now trading around 99.01.
G10 FX was broadly firmer, led by JPY. The BoJ held rates as expected at 0.75% in an 8-1 decision (one opted for a 25bps hike). USD/JPY started to see a reaction in the press conference when Governor Ueda commented on preliminary wage data, stating that momentum at “small and medium-sized firms could be better than in past years.” USD/JPY hit as low as 157.51 from earlier highs of 159.87.
EUR/USD saw upside in wake of the ECB announcement; the central bank kept rates on hold as expected, saying they are not pre-committing to a particular rate path, a theme reiterated by President Lagarde. The announcement was somewhat skewed hawkish, given the significant upgrade to inflation projections, albeit policy being well-positioned in the current environment was an offsetting factor. ECB source reports noted officials see the need for possible rate hike talk to start in April, but a move would be more likely in June. EUR/USD climbed back above 1.1600, eyeing the 21 DMA of 1.1650.
The BoE held rates as expected, but in a more hawkish fashion, 9-0 (exp. 7-2). The statement removed language suggesting further cuts, while retaining optionality if the shock proves short-lived.
The SNB kept its policy rate at 0.00% as expected with the update of FX language. SNB’s willingness to intervene in the FX market has increased and would counter rapid and excessive appreciation.
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