EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,647.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/31/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 04/02/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 25 46
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 235
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1721
104 C MIZUHO SECURITIES US 3
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 23
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 170
323 H HSBC 242
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 481
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 215
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 16
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 389
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 77
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 105
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1590 418
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 4
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1
709 C BARCLAYS 12 759
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 187
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 4
905 C ADM 6
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 03/31/2026 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 03/31/2026
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:37:25
TOTAL: 3,365 3,365
MONTH TO DATE: 13,503
JPMORGAN STOPPED 1078/10,138
MARCH 31
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2026: 3,365 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 336,500 OZ or 10.466TONNES
total notices so far: 13,503 contracts for 1,350,300 OR 42.0000 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1184 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 5.920 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 42 CONTRACTS OR 0.210 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 17 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE 85,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS IS REDUCED TO 7.035 MILLION OZ
NOW OUR APRIL 2026 CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 4.475 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,00 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 7.035 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.637 TONNES EX FOR RISK//AUG 25: 9.107 TONNES , AUGUST 26: 9.1010 TONNES AND NOW AUGUST 27: 9.0699 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 107.5117 TONNES OF GOLD NORMAL STANDING (INCLUDES ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPS/EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS//) +44.696 TONNES EX.FOR RISK = 152.208 TONNES
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR STRONG 53,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING IS THUS REDUCED TO 51.175 TONNES/
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 4400 OZ OR 0.2320 TONNESAND THEN WE ADD BY OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 22.3818///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES OF GOLD./
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 53,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 51.035 TONNES.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 4 MONTHS JANUARY TO APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES MINUS OUR 1.678 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER: NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 51.175 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 9.228 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1242 CONTRACTS OI TO 115,169 AND CLOSER THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 111,576 CONTRACTS MARCH 20.2026
EFP ISSUANCE 895 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 895 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1242 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 895 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2137 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $4.22
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.685 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $4.22
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 1 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 56.69 PTS OR 1.46%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 574.00 PTS OR 2.25%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 2709.28 PTS OR 5.31%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.20%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8740
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8961 Oil DOWN TO 97.47 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 99.84 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8740 (UP) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8767 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 5901 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 361,409 CONTRACT OI , HAVING NOW REACHED A NEW RECORD LOW OI SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 367,310 SET MARCH 31/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 361,409 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,696.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING TUESDAY’S TRADING ALONG WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY LONG WITH THE BANKERS TAKING THE SHORT SIDE, WITH OUR TWO SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOSS IN OI!!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MARCH CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD. THE SPECS HAVE NOW GONE MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE WITH THE BANKERS BUYING UP ALL THEY COULD AND COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL IN GOLD. THE SHORT SPECS WERE MURDERLIZED LAST WEEK.
WE THUS HAD A FAIR LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2934 CONTRACTS (OR 26.77 TONNES) DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG 2967 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR FAR.
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO APRIL:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUAY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW APRIL COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2934 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ($119.65). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH APRIL/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1694 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE AND NOW ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS THEY ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK WITH MUCH FAILURE DURING LONDON LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!!
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH WE HAVE 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7196 CONTRACTS OR 719,600 OZ/22.3818 TONNES.. AS DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE!!
APRIL: 0 SO FAR HAVE BEEN ISSUED
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED OCT 17 RECORD SETTING: 12.031 TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWED THURSDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8.326 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY;S 6.469 WHICH FOLLOWED ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 42.549 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TOTAL 4679 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS ON 6 OCCASIONS FOR 467,900 OZ OR 14.553 TONNES.! TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.511 TONNES OF GOLD
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
AND NOW APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 53,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON. THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX IS REDUCED TO 51.175 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
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COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING APRIL,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $119.65
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY ALONG WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE BUT OUR SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI // BUT WITH OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD FOR FEBRUARY’S ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (157 TONNES) , MARCH’S STANDING OF 67+ TONNES+ TODAY’S HUGE APRIL’S DELIVERY TOTALS A VERY STRONG 51 + TONNES
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO APRIL:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.3818 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING: A VERY STRONG 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 53,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (1.648 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX IS NOW REDUCED TO 51.175 TONNES OF GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $119.65
WE HAD A FAIR 1686 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 2934 CONTRACTS OR 293,400 OZ OR 26.77 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL 1 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3,365 CONTRACTS OR 336,500 OZ 10.466 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2950 Contracts 295,000 OZ 9.175 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 13,503 notices 1,350,300 oz 42.0000 ONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
0 entry
customer withdrawals:
0 ENTRIES
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs
ADJUSTMENTS dealer to customer
i) Asahi 19,814.042 oz
ii) Brinks 15,641,106 oz
iii) Manfra: 3,101.153. oz
total removed from dealer (reg) to eligible 38,556.301 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI STANDS AT 6315 CONTRACTS HAVING A HUGE LOSS OF 10,668 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 10,138 CONTRACTS YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 530 CONTRACTS OR 53000 OZ (1.648 TONNES) AS THEY UNDERWENT A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON SO AS TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON ON A FAST T PLUS ONE BASIS. THEY NEEDED GOLD IN A HURRY.
MAY GAINED 76 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 5441
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY A HUGE 3558 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 268,353
We had 3365 contracts filed for today representing 336,500oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 1590 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 13,503 contract(s) of which 418 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,503) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (6315 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3365 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,645,300 OZ OR (51.175Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (13,503 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (6315 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (3,365 )x 100 oz) which equals 1,645,300 OZ OR 51.175 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in APRIL is 51.175 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL 51.175 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW MEGA HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 197,318 poor
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,822.966.773 oz 56.70 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,822,966.773 tonnes oz 56.70 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 31,533,900.538 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,524,687.166 or 513.98 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 14,917,970,657.171 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 14,701,721 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
457.28 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL1
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) JPMorgan 160,715.000 oz total withdrawal: 106,715.000 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 2 ENTRIES i) Into Delaware: 15,219.685 oz ii) Into HSBC 218,028.390 oz total deposit: 231,241.005 pz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 3 CONTRACT(S) ( 15,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 223 Contracts (1.115 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1184 contracts 5.920 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
1 entries
i) JPMorgan 160,715.000 oz
total withdrawal: 106,715.000 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments: / / 2
ADJUSTMENTS 2
first one: dealer to customer Manfra: 14,636.800 oz
next : Customer to dealer account
b) Stonex: 5194.73 oz
net loss dealer 9442 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.420 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 327.659 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2026 OI: 226 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1198 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1181 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST 17 CONTRACTS OR 85,000 OZ UNDERWENT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WITNESS THAT BOTH GOLD AND SILVER HAD AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON. I GUESS NO CONFIDENCE IN THE COMEX
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 1828 CONTRACTS UP TO 73,622 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 76 CONTRACTS UP TO 407 OI CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 or 15,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 53,067 awful
AND NOW APRIL. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1184 X5,000 oz = 5.920 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (226) AND the number of notices served upon today (3)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2026 contract month: (1184 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (226) minus number of notices served upon today (3 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 7.035 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 7.035 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STRONG FOR A GENERALLY LOUSY DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 76.420 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 145.341/659million: 44.44%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1047.276 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.079 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
JOHN RUBINO
JESSE COLUMBO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE AND LIVE FROM THE VAULT PODCASTS NO 265
end.
5. COMMODITY REPORT//ALUMINUM
Aluminum Supply Shock: Top Gulf Producer Halts Operations After Iran Strike, Price To Spike
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 11:52 AM
Over the weekend, both Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) – the largest aluminum producers in the Gulf – and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) reported drone attacks damaging smelting facilities after hits on Iranian steel infrastructure last week.
Neither company (at the time) confirmed whether supply will be impacted, but this morning the worst case appears to be confirmed with Reuters reporting that according to a Wednesday note by consultancy Wood Mackenzie “EGA’s Al Taweelah facility in the United Arab Emirates halted operations after an Iranian missile and drone attack on Saturday damaged a power plant.” A subsequent report from Bloomberg confirmed the report, writing that “Emirates Global Aluminium, the Middle East’s top producer of the metal, halted operations at its Al Taweelah smelter after the site was struck by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the matter.“
At the same time, the smelter belonging to Aluminium Bahrain – Alba – which was also targeted on Saturday, “sustained significant damages and is expected to operate at an estimated utilisation of 30 percent”, Wood Mackenzie said.
“The ongoing Middle East conflict is triggering a critical supply crisis in the global aluminium market, with disruptions potentially removing 3 to 3.5 million tonnes of output in 2026,” Wood Mackenzie said. For context, the world produced just under 74 million tonnes of primary aluminum last year.
Wood Mackenzie’s press office said its information was sourced from the consultancy’s contacts in the Middle East, but declined to provide further details.
As a reminder, the aluminum smelter in Al Taweelah, in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, has a capacity of roughly 1.5 million metric tonnes per year, and an alumina refinery. Alba’s capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per year in Bahrain makes it the world’s biggest single-site aluminium smelter. The Middle East as a whole produces about 9% of global supply, with EGA and others playing a key role in supplying manufacturers across Europe, Asia and the US. Even before the industry was directly targeted, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had already left the region’s major producers short of critical inputs, with the sector anticipating a cascading wave of production cuts unless the strait reopens soon.
As Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch writes, it’s “hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide.”
This is how the Goldman trader does the math on lost output:
Lost ALBA 1mm + EGA 1.6mm + Qatalam 0.3mm + Mozal 0.6mm = 3.5m on a 74mt mkt = 4.7% impact to supply, and 7.7% of ex china supply
Balance this with Oil price demand destruction ~1mm, assume China overproduce and ship 500k – need to price demand destruction to balance ~2mt (inventory we see at ~1.5mt but majority of that is China link).
McGeoch says that in light of the shut downs, some traders have been eyeballing a significant surge in the aluminum price to $4500 (15% premium to LME for China is a clear starting point).
- The Goldman trader also writes that if the report is accurate, the market will first draw LME stocks, which is hard as not everyone can take Russian units, both regionally and financially.
- Second, market needs to solve for the China export tax.
- Third, it will be important to see China ramp supply, which means you have to convince them its a good use of power allocations.
Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange have surged since the strikes, with LME Aluminum trading up 50% from a year ago, and if production remains shuttered, it will likely move notably higher.
ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 1/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.43 PTS OR 0.80%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 20.21 PTS OR 0.08%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 658.85 PTS OR 1.27%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.43%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.9063
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.9124 Oil UP TO 102.70 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 106.81 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.9063 (UP) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.9124 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.8740
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8767
1.HANG SANG UP 574.00 POINTS OR 2.25%
2. Nikkei closed UP 2709.28 PTS OR 5.31%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 97.47
BRENT; 99.84
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.35/// EURO RISES TO 1.15912 UP 18 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.304 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.38… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.618 DOWN 10 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8740( UP AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8767
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9322 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.781// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.405%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.779%
3j Gold at $4711.00 //Silver at: 74.04 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 80 100 roubles/80.49
3m oil (WTI) into the 97 dollar handle for WTI and 99 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.25 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.305% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.618 DOWN 10 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7935 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9200
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.263 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.860 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.744 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.47 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7950 DOWN 12 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.426 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.474 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.092 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures, Bonds Surge On Optimism War May End, Oil Tumbles Below $100
26 – 08:30 AM
Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe. Trump has a national address tonight at 9pm ET to discuss Iran, but the content is unclear, with the market is expressing the view that this will be details on a wind-down rather than an escalation. As of 8:15am ET, S&P Futures were 0.7% higher, after the cash index posted a near 3% advance on Tuesday, the best end to a quarter since September 2008. Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1% with all Mag 7 names higher premarket. European stocks jumped 2.6%, alongside a 4.9% surge in Asian shares. Final Mfg PMIs from the Europe were mixed (EU, Germany, Italy small beats/UK, France small missed) while Japan/Korea Manf PMIs were slightly better. Trump is set to address the nation tonight at 9pm EST and said he expects the war to end in two to three weeks/US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the region, Iran said the US “isn’t serious about diplomacy”, the WSJ reported that the UAE wants to force the Strait of Hormuz open and is willing to join the fight, and attacks continued on both sides with Qatar saying Iran struck an oil tanker. Brent fell 5.4% before paring the move as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed and attacks continued across the Gulf. Traders trimmed bets on tighter monetary policy, sending two-year Treasury yields three basis points lower to 3.76%. Comparable UK gilt yields dropped 10 basis points to 4.30%. Looking at today’s US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +2.1%, Microsoft +1.5%, Amazon +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.9%, Apple +0.5%)
- Li Auto ADRs (LI) rise 4% after the Chinese EV firm reported March vehicle deliveries that surpassed its own guidance and analyst estimates.
- MSC Industrial (MSM) falls 6% after the distributor of metalworking products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- NCino (NCNO) jumps 24% after the cloud-banking software company’s subscription revenue forecast for 2027 beat the average analyst estimate.
- Nike (NKE) falls 10% after the retailer gave a surprisingly gloomy outlook for the year ahead, complicating Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s efforts to turn around the business.
- RH (RH) plunges 17% after the home furnishing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) slides 21% after the clinical-stage oncology company gave safety and efficacy data from an early-stage trial of its drug-candidate for prostate cancer that underwhelmed Wall Street.
- Target Hospitality (TH) rises 24% after the provider of modular housing announced secured a multi-year contract worth more than $550 million. The company will construct and provide hospitality services for a hyperscaler’s data center development in North Texas.
In other corporate news, Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced and a final deal could be announced later on Tuesday. Boeing will team up with Rheinmetall to offer drones known as the Ghost Bat to Germany’s military.
Signs of an increased desire for de-escalation from Trump may reduce anxiety over his threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure. On the other hand, Tehran would be left in control of the key oil shipment chokepoint. Meanwhile, Iran hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack. Without a ceasefire or tangible progress in negotiations, the market will keep “fading the administration’s ‘everything is going well’ happy talk,” Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note. Carmignac Gestion’s Kevin Thozet observed that “Trump can’t simply turn an on/off switch on the crisis.” Other observers argue that rhetoric alone about a potential end to the conflict cannot create certainty for the market.
Equities are, nonetheless, primed to rip higher on positive news about the war following large-scale unwinding of risk by hedge funds and CTAs. The concern is that, post an initial bounce, worries about the economy and the path for interest rates will trigger further volatility episodes, setting up stocks for months of roller-coaster conditions.
In any case, traders said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Hormuz strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.
“The correlation between Brent oil prices and global equity markets has been exceptionally strong since the conflict started,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “This goes to show that a return to previous equity market highs would need the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and oil prices to drop significantly. It is probably too early for an all-clear yet.”
Trump, who will give an address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to provide an “important update” on Iran, said the Islamic Republic could still reach a deal with the US. He added, however, that an agreement with Tehran isn’t a prerequisite to conclude the war. “We are seeing a relief rally, and with more information we may see a reversal, so we just need to be careful here,” Remi Olu-Pitan, multi-asset growth and income head at Schroders, told Bloomberg TV. “There’s still a lot of volatility, the market is still fragile.”
Oil remains in focus for traders, policy makers and consumers. WTI futures are trading above $100 a barrel, while there’s been more commentary around the risks of spikes to $200. Crucially, retail unleaded pump prices climbed above $4 a gallon, the highest since August 2022. With higher gas prices adding near-term pressure on household budgets, Tuesday’s consumer confidence print will be closely watched. Oil, and the uncertainty around the magnitude and duration of supply disruption, was cited by strategists at Morgan Stanley as they downgraded global equities to equal-weight.
The Middle East conflict has caught high-flying chip stocks in its tentacles. Citigroup’s Jim McCormick describes a market wake-up call, noting “we’re looking at a world of sustained higher yields and sustained higher energy costs and that doesn’t help the AI sector.”
Traders at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggested Tuesday’s sharp rebound in US stocks was more about the unwinding of negative positioning by market participants than a shift in sentiment over the war. “Investors have been counting on a swift off-ramp to war essentially since it began, but I think from a market or global economy perspective it’s important to define what the true clearing event to revisit risk and take down recession odds really is,” wrote JPMorgan industrials sector specialist sales Paige Hanson.
Space is also making the headlines this week, with Virgin Galactic soaring in late trading after it resumed some sales of commercial space flights. NASA is making final preparations for the Artemis II missions, while what a history-making SpaceX IPO could mean for the space economy is discussed in the Big Take podcast.
European stocks are rallying, with the Stoxx 600 up 2% as markets look toward a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Banks as well as travel and leisure shares are leading gains, while the energy sector is the biggest laggard. Stoxx 600 rises 2.2% to 595.73 with 65 members down, 532 up, and 3 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Athens Stock Exchange Index rises as much as 4.3% at Wednesday open, following index provider MSCI’s decision to upgrade the Greek market to developed status
- Thule rises as much as 5.7% after SEB Equities upgrades to hold, removing the only sell rating on the maker of roof and bike racks, to reflect “more reasonable expectations” now baked into the stock
- Sandoz shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in five weeks, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation
- Inficon gains as much as 8.1%, the most since Jan. 15, as JPMorgan starts coverage at overweight, saying the vacuum instrument maker should be a beneficiary of the multiyear upcycle in wafer fabrication equipment
- Arcadis shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most in six months, after Bank Degroof Petercam upgraded the engineering services firm on expectation that the new management team will be able to drive a recovery
- Jungheinrich shares rise as much as 9.8%, their steepest ascent in around a year, as Bernstein boosts its price target on the German machinery company, citing enticing long-term prospects
- Nordex falls as much as 3.8% after Bank of America downgraded the German wind turbine manufacturer to neutral from buy following a 56% year-to-date rally that the bank says has priced in most of the bull case
- Berkeley Group shares plunge as much as 19% to hit a nine-year low, after the housebuilder’s profit goal for the FY27 to FY30 period significantly undershot expectations
- SoftwareONE shares drop as much as 8.9%, hitting a seven-month low, after an investor offloaded shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. Shares have fallen below the offer price this morning
- Cirsa Enterprises drops as much as 5% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price. The stock is holding above the offer price on Wednesday
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government will coordinate a diplomatic push for the strait’s reopening, affirming Britain’s desire not to be dragged into the military conflict. “I would expect further volatility in the days to come and the market to oscillate between losses and gains for a few more sessions until we get clarity on how the crisis unfolds,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG Markets. “This is likely more a temporary respite than a final game changer.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped the most in nearly a year, tracking Wall Street’s rally on optimism that the war in Iran may end in the near future. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 5.2%, the most since April 10, with shares in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan leading the gains. Technology giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. provided the biggest boost to the gauge’s advance. Asian markets would stand to gain more than others if the US manages to defuse the war with Iran, as investors unwind an energy‑driven risk premium that has hit the region harder than most. The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, driving equity sell‑offs and currency volatility across Asia’s oil‑importing economies. Still, the regional gauge remains down about 9% from a peak in February, with investors questioning how quickly oil can fall and how credible Trump’s assurances are. Market focus will now shift to an “important update” on Iran that Trump is scheduled to deliver at 9 p.m. Washington time.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4%, while Treasury yields dropped four basis across the curve. Swaps imply 11 basis points of Federal Reserve rate reductions by year-end, compared to 5bps on Tuesday. EUR/USD up as much as 0.5% to 1.1611, while GBP/USD up as much as 0.6% to 1.3301. USD/CHF drops 0.8% to 0.7928, EUR/CHF down 0.5% to 0.9190; leveraged desks seen unwinding franc shorts, a Europe-based trader says
In rates, fixed income markets have rallied but lost a bit of steam in recent trade. US yields are around 3bps lower across the curve as markets assign a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end versus a 64% chance of a hike last week. Treasury futures are off session highs in early US session, although yields remain 2bp-4bp lower across a steeper curve. US 10-year is about 3bp richer on the day near 4.29%, while 5s30s spread is steeper by ~1bp. Gilts outperform, with UK front-end yields richer by 8bp as oil broadly holds losses. Investors face the prospect that US President Trump, slated to speak at 9 p.m. in Washington, will soon declare an end to the war in Iran.
In commodities, despite the optimism in stocks, crude prices have faded declines in the European session. Brent is now back above $100 per barrel having earlier dropped below the key level. WTI crude oil contract has pared a 4.8% slump to about 2.5%, and was last trading just around $99. Precious metals are diverging, with spot gold up 1.4% and silver down 0.5%. Bitcoin has added 0.5%.
Looking at today’s US economic calendar, we get March ADP employment change (8:15am), February retail sales (8:30am), March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), March ISM manufacturing and January business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:05am) and Barr (9:10am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.9%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.8%
- Russell 2000 mini +1.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
- DAX +0.7%
- CAC 40 +0.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.32%
- VIX -1.7 points at 28.87
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1221.56
- euro little changed at $1.147
- WTI crude -0.9% at $101.92/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran: BBG
- Oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks. The US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons, he said. Attacks continued across the Middle East. Qatar said a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. BBG
- The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks. WSJ
- Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran. He told the Telegraph that leaving the block was now “beyond reconsideration.” BBG
- California is confronting sky-high petrol prices and the threat of jet fuel shortages because of disruption caused by the Iran war, exposing US energy insecurity as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The most populous US state is vulnerable to the turmoil in world energy markets because it relies on imports of refined products such as petrol and jet fuel from Asia after introducing ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and significantly reduce refining capacity in favor of renewables. Californians pay the most for petrol in the country, with a gallon averaging $5.88 — the highest level since the pandemic — compared to $4.01 in the rest of the US, according to the American Automobile Association. FT
- Russia exported more liquefied natural gas in the first quarter of 2026 than it did a year earlier, with shipments to Europe increasing despite Moscow’s push to redirect supply away from the region. RTRS
- China’s factory activity slowed in March for export-oriented firms as their costs surged, according to RatingDog’s PMI. That contrasts with an official gauge that showed manufacturing improving despite the Iran war. BBG
- Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerges as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation. Investors are betting that whereas major central banks in the US and Europe will be forced to keep interest rates at higher levels than previously expected to counter inflation triggered by rising oil and gas prices, China will be relatively insulated thanks to its energy mix and very low inflation before the conflict. FT
- Japan may face stagflation risks from the Iran war that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada said on Wednesday. RTRS
- Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time.
- OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its largest funding round yet. BBG
- Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and it now implies a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026. While some of this reflects changing demand for insurance against the tail risk of more hikes, the market-implied probability that the FOMC delivers 1-2 cuts—the modal case before the war—has declined from 35-40% to about 18%. Expectations for other central banks have moved even more, and market pricing now implies about 70bp of hikes from the ECB in 2026, compared to 8bp of cuts before the war
- Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran. ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs. Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.
Top Asian News
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53).
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18).
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
- Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q1) 7 vs. Exp. 7 (Prev. 6, Low. -1, High. 9)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
- Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.3% vs. Exp. 13% (Prev. 12.6%)
European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) continue to rebound, printing a third straight day of gains thus far. The positive was helped following reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue, while President Trump said that the war is coming to an end. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Banks and Travel and Leisure top the sector pile. Oil prices have been the main driver for airlines, with the drop in energy prices making jet fuel cheaper. Banks have been hit throughout the Iran war, so the prospects of it coming to an end have boosted the sector. To add, HSBC was added to Goldman Sachs’ European conviction list.
Top European News
- Germany’s VDMA said German Engineering Orders -8% in Dec-Feb Y/Y (Domestic Orders -6%, Foreign Orders -8%).
- German Economic Institutes confirm cutting 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
- UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st. Increasing national living wage to £12.71. Energy bills are to be cut by average £117 a year for millions across the UK and locked in until end of June.
FX
- DXY is on the backfoot this morning with markets pricing in a “de-escalation” trade, after US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that “it is coming to an end”, with a White House official suggesting Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon. Interestingly, from the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian noted that Iran seeks to end the war with guarantees against further attacks. DXY currently holds at the lower end of a 99.41-99.88 range. It is worth highlighting that the index saw some strength after the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said that the “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”.
- G10s are entirely stronger against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. The CHF outperforms, benefiting from lower energy prices – the likes of GBP and EUR also benefit. For the GBP specifically, the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today, including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by an average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK, which will be locked in until end of June.
- JPY also gains vs USD, albeit to a lesser degree vs peers. The seemingly easing Iran tensions has benefited the JPY, which builds on the strength seen in recent sessions, facilitated by jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ SOO earlier this week. As for today, Japan’s Tankan survey was mostly stronger-than-expected, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently trades within a narrow 158.27-159.01 range.
Central Banks
- BoJ new Board Member Asada does not comment on any specific stance. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on growth, creating a stagflationary trend.
- ECB’s Stournaras said if oil prices rise over USD 150/bbl Europe could face a recession.
- ECB’s Dolenc said ECB’s adverse scenario is more likely to be the next baseline and current baseline is more like the best-case scenario.
Fixed Income
- An overall positive start in the fixed income benchmarks, with energy prices falling and higher hopes of a potential end to the Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war is coming to an end, while a White House official said that the President is confident that an agreement will be reached soon.
- USTs are trading at the upper end of a 111-10 to 111-14+ range, albeit off best levels, as energy prices rebound slightly. Price action is set to remain rangebound ahead of a flurry of data and Fed speak, while Trump is set to speak at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
- Bunds, in tandem with its peers, are gaining and currently holding above the 126 handle. The 10yr yield extends further below 3.0%, printing a trough at 2.933% before bouncing slightly. EZ final manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher above the prelim. Figure but failed to drive any move in EGBs. In addition, ECB speakers reiterated the impact higher energy prices have on the European economy.
- Gilts outperform, continuing to be the beneficiary of lower energy prices, as BoE pricing remains sensitive to oil prices. Pricing for rate hikes have pulled back, now price in 44bps of hikes in 2026.
- Germany sells EUR 3.025bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.11x (prev. 1.51x), average yield 2.78% (prev. 2.60%), retention 24.3% (prev. 20.1%).
Commodities
- In geopolitics, optimism was seen on Tuesday over a potential end to the war, particularly following Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks. This follows reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling on users of the strait to secure it themselves. Trump is due to make an announcement tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST. Some of yesterday’s optimism waned after commentary from the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament, who said: “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.”
- WTI and Brent initially dipped to lows of USD 96.50/bbl and USD 98.35/bbl respectively as markets initially continued the move from yesterday, although a floor was later found on the Iranian deputy speaker comments, with Brent back above USD 100/bbl and WTI near USD 99/bbl at the time of writing, both still lower intraday by over USD 2/bbl apiece. Dutch TTF prices are softer once again after slipping over 7% in the prior session, with desks citing favourable weather alongside hopes of an Iranian war de-escalation.
- Spot gold is slightly firmer amid the softer USD and lower oil prices, with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (4,642.48/oz) in a current USD 4,661.61-4,747.77/oz parameter. Conversely, spot silver is softer on the day following yesterday’s +7% gains, with the metal today finding resistance near its 100 DMA (USD 75.22/oz).
- Base metals mostly eke out mild gains in what is seemingly a function of the USD alongside recent positive sentiment amid hopes of a de-escalation of the Iranian situation. 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 12,380.00- 12,499.75/t range after finding resistance around USD 12,500/t.
- IEA Chief Birol says more than 12mln BPD of oil supply has been lost so far due to the Middle East crisis; the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the loss of Russian gas in 2022 combined. Oil supply losses in April are expected to be twice as high as in March. Biggest problem is a lack of jet fuel and diesel, already affecting Asia and coming to Europe in April–May.
- UK PM Starmer said the fuel duty will remain where it is until September.
- South Korea has raised its energy disruption alert to the second-highest level due to the possible crude oil supply crisis, via Yonhap.
- US extended a Russian oil transit license via Kazakhstan to China until March 2027, according to IFX cites Kazakh Energy Ministry.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.
Trade/Tariffs
- India grants one-time customs duty relief for goods made in special economic zone and sold into domestic market.
- US is rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected now after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reported.
- US President Trump tells NBC News on Iran war “it is coming to an end”.
- US advisers who speak regularly with the US President are reportedly uncertain about the mixed signals from Trump, according to Axios. “Some Trump aides and allies say he’s mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan”. “Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. “Nobody knows in the end what he’s really thinking,” a senior adviser said.”.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said have largely destroyed Iran’s air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, adds end to Iran war is not today, not tomorrow but it is coming. said:. There’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission. There is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point. US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
- Iranian Foreign Minister, when asked about the status of negotiations with the US, said “No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept the ceasefire; We seek a complete end”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Strait of Hormuz is closed to countries at war with Iran and said the US President must change his approach, also noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US. We are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
- Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”, Fars reported.
- Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
- Yemeni Houthi spokesperson claims a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, said the escalations will only drive Yemen “to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted”.
- Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil posted “I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island”.
- Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
- Iranian drone reportedly strikes US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Fars news agency.
- Israeli military identified launch of missile from Yemen towards Israel.
- US and Israel attacked weather facilities of Bushehr again, via ISNA.
- Reports of a drone attack on an oil field in the “Chamanke” region, located in the north of Dohuk province in Iraqi Kurdistan; attack caused a fire in this oil field. The field is managed by an American company, Fars News reported.
- Reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia; reporting in proximity to Saudi announcing the interception of two drones in the last few hours.
- Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reported.
- United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
- Powerful explosion rocks American base in Erbil, according to Press TV.
- Iran’s Mobarakeh steel plant hit in US-Israel strike and Khuzestan steel plant also targeted, Mehr News reported.
- UK PM Starmer reaffirmed that the war in the Middle East is not our war and will not be dragged into the conflict. Exploring every diplomatic avenue to reopen Hormuz.
- Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.
US Event Calendar
- 9:00 am: United States Jan FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
- 9:45 am: United States Mar MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55, prior 57.7
- 10:00 am: United States Mar Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.9, prior 91.2
- 10:00 am: United States Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6890k, prior 6946k
- 12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Eco Mobility Project
- 1:10 pm: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
- 3:00 pm: United States Fed’s Barr Discusses Stablecoin Regulation
- 5:10 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Small Business
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
What had been a torrid month of March for markets ended on a positive note yesterday, as the S&P 500 (+2.91%) posted its best day since last May as comments by US and Iranian officials drove hopes that an end to the Iran war could be coming closer into view. The increased optimism boosted a variety of asset classes including credit (-18bps for US HY spreads) and gold (+3.48%). Oil markets themselves saw more modest relief given still very uncertain prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling -3.18% yesterday but trading +1.36% higher at $105.21/bbl this morning. Meanwhile, US officials have joined in suggesting that the US may look for an offramp before long, with Secretary of State Rubio saying last night that the US “can see the finish line” on Iran objectives. And the White House posted last night that Trump will address the nation at 9pm EST today “to provide an important update on Iran”. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) have solidified yesterday’s gains, while those on the Europe’s STOXX 50 (+1.80%) are catching up to yesterday’s US rally, having risen by a more modest +0.50% yesterday.
The biggest trigger for yesterday’s rally came shortly after the European close as Iran’s state news agency reported Iranian President Pezeshkian saying that Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”. While it wasn’t clear if these comments represented a material change in Iran’s position – indeed, in large part they reiterated demands floated by Tehran last week – they helped drive an extension of the rally that emerged amid signals that the US may be looking for offramps out of the war.
The latest US comments then saw Trump say last night that he foresees ending the war “within two weeks, maybe three” and that while a deal with Iran was possible, such an agreement was not necessary for the US to end the conflict. Trump also suggested that “we’re not going to have anything to do with” what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to a cacophony of signals that the US did not see reopening Hormuz as necessary to end the war. These ranged from the WSJ report we mentioned yesterday morning to Trump’s post earlier yesterday that countries who are reliant on energy from the Gulf should “go to the Strait and just TAKE IT” as well as his comments to the New York Post that the waterway would open “automatically” after the US leaves.
Oil prices moved lower following the Pezeshkian comments but are a little higher again this morning. WTI crude in particular saw modest moves in aggregate, down -1.46% yesterday to $101.38/bbl, after almost reaching $107/bbl in Asia trading yesterday, but edging back up to $103.19/bbl this morning as Trump’s comments overnight left plenty of uncertainty over Hormuz, especially if there isn’t a negotiated settlement. When it comes to talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister told Aljazeera yesterday that while there has been an exchange of messages with the US, these were not “negotiations”.
By contrast, US equities delivered a stunning rebound as the S&P 500 rose by +2.91%, its best day since May 12 last year, the day that US and China agreed to defuse their post-Liberation Day tariff escalation. The NASDAQ (+3.83%) and the Mag-7 (+4.48%) outperformed as tech stocks led the gains, while the S&P 500 airlines sector rebounded by +5.77%. The rally was also a broad one, with 421 advancers in the S&P 500, the most year-to-date, while the VIX index (-5.36pts to 25.25) saw its biggest daily decline since last April.
The positive mood has fed into Asian hours overnight, with key Asia indices also rebounding strongly. The KOSPI (+7.73%) is leading the way, also boosted by strong export data, while the Nikkei is up +4.58%. The Hang Seng (+1.97%), CSI (+1.43%), Shanghai Composite (+1.36%) and the S&P/ASX 200 +1.90% are also visibly higher.
The risk-on mood has also been visible across other asset classes, with US HY credit spreads tightening by -18bps yesterday, also their best day since last May’s US-China trade truce. Elsewhere, gold rose +3.48% to $4,668/oz in its best day since early February, while the dollar index fell -0.55% and is another -0.17% overnight.
In the rates space, Treasuries extended Monday’s rally, with the 2yr yield down -3.4bps to 3.80% and the 10yr down -3.1bps to 4.32%. 10yr yields are another -2.7bps lower overnight, which leaves them almost 20bps down from their 4.48% intra-day peak on Friday. Meanwhile, this morning in Asia, 10yr JGBs are -2.8bps lower at 2.32%.
European bonds also rallied yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds down -3.0bps to 3.00%, while OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-7.6bps) outperformed amid the risk on moves. The bond rally was also aided by the March euro area HICP print which saw both headline (+2.5% yoy) core inflation (+2.3%) come in a tenth below consensus. Gilts were a relative underperformer, with 10yr yields down a modest -1.7bps as the final Q4 GDP release saw 2025 real GDP growth revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%.
Yesterday’s cross-asset rally came at the end of what has been a pretty torrid month and quarter for markets, as you can see in our regular performance review that Henry will be publishing shortly. Clearly the Iran conflict dominated the agenda, with Q1 seeing the biggest quarterly rise in Brent crude oil since Q3 1990 when the Gulf War began. It also triggered a major cross-asset selloff, and March saw Europe’s STOXX 50 post its biggest monthly decline since the first Covid lockdowns in March 2020, whilst 10yr Treasury yields had their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. So nearly all the major assets struggled, and there were plenty of other stories to look out for too. In fact, the software component of the S&P 500 saw its biggest quarterly decline since the height of the GFC in 2008, whilst March saw gold’s biggest monthly decline since 2008 as well. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.
Recapping yesterday’s other news, we saw mixed data out of the US. On the positive side, the Conference Board consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in in March to 91.8 (versus 91.0 previous, 87.9 expected). So US consumer sentiment is proving relatively resilient in the face of the Iran shock, even if the expectations series did deteriorate from 72.6 to 70.9 (vs. 68.4 expected). However, the February JOLTS employment survey was on the softer side, with job openings largely in line with expectations but the quits rate edging down from 2.0% to 1.9% and layoffs rising to a 4-month high of 1,721k (vs 1,668k expected).
Turning to the data out of Asia this morning, in China the RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in March, down from 52.1 in February and below the expected 51.6. Rising oil prices contributed to increased cost pressures, dragging from the strong momentum in February. Meanwhile in Japan, the BoJ’s Tankan survey improved for a fourth consecutive quarter, with sentiment among large manufacturers rising to +17 from +16 in December. Companies are also signaling a larger-than-expected increase in capital expenditure though they are more cautious about the future.
Finally, turning to the day ahead, the final manufacturing PMIs for March will be the highlight on the data side. In the US, we’ll also have the latest weekly ADP employment figures and the February retail sales data. Among central banks, the Fed’s Musalem and Barr and ECB’s Cipollone are due to speak.
1b European opening report
Equities gain on hopes of potential end of Iran conflict; DXY slips further below 100 – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 06:36 AM
- US President Trump to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday to give an important update on Iran at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, according to the White House.
- US President Trump told NBC News on Iran war “it is coming to an end”.
- Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said the “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”, Fars reported.
- Global equities rebound on positive US-Iran commentary, Banks benefit the most while NKE hit after weak China guidance.
- Crude softer but off lows; metals mostly firmer.
- DXY slips on a “de-escalation” trade, ADP Employment ahead.
- Fixed income benefitting from lower energy prices as hawkish pricing pares back slightly.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change (Mar), Retail Sales (Feb), S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes (Mar), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Musalem, Barr and President Trump.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) continue to rebound, printing a third straight day of gains thus far. The positive was helped following reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue, while President Trump said that the war is coming to an end.
- European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy. Banks and Travel and Leisure top the sector pile. Oil prices have been the main driver for airlines, with the drop in energy prices making jet fuel cheaper. Banks have been hit throughout the Iran war, so the prospects of it coming to an end have boosted the sector. To add, HSBC was added to Goldman Sachs’ European conviction list.
- US equity futures are gaining pre-market, with ES regaining the 6,600 handle. In terms of stock specifics, Nike (-10.2%) shares have fallen pre-market after noting persistent weakness in China. However, the Co. did beat on its top- and bottom- line metrics.
- Nike (NKE) shares sank 10.2% after-hours following its Q3 results, where it reported a beat on its top- and bottom-line metrics, but noted of persistent weakness in China.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY is on the backfoot this morning with markets pricing in a “de-escalation” trade, after US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that “it is coming to an end”, with a White House official suggesting Trump is confident an agreement will be reached soon. Interestingly, from the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian noted that Iran seeks to end the war with guarantees against further attacks. DXY currently holds at the lower end of a 99.41-99.88 range. It is worth highlighting that the index saw some strength after the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said that the “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”.
- G10s are entirely stronger against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. The CHF outperforms, benefiting from lower energy prices – the likes of GBP and EUR also benefit. For the GBP specifically, the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today, including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by an average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK, which will be locked in until end of June.
- JPY also gains vs USD, albeit to a lesser degree vs peers. The seemingly easing Iran tensions has benefited the JPY, which builds on the strength seen in recent sessions, facilitated by jawboning and a hawkish-leaning BoJ SOO earlier this week. As for today, Japan’s Tankan survey was mostly stronger-than-expected, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently trades within a narrow 158.27-159.01 range.
FIXED INCOME
- An overall positive start in the fixed income benchmarks, with energy prices falling and higher hopes of a potential end to the Iran conflict. President Trump stated that the war is coming to an end, while a White House official said that the President is confident that an agreement will be reached soon.
- USTs are trading at the upper end of a 111-10 to 111-14+ range, albeit off best levels, as energy prices rebound slightly. Price action is set to remain rangebound ahead of a flurry of data and Fed speak, while Trump is set to speak at 21:00EDT/02:00BST.
- Bunds, in tandem with its peers, are gaining and currently holding above the 126 handle. The 10yr yield extends further below 3.0%, printing a trough at 2.933% before bouncing slightly. EZ final manufacturing PMI ticked slightly higher above the prelim. Figure but failed to drive any move in EGBs. In addition, ECB speakers reiterated the impact higher energy prices have on the European economy.
- Gilts outperform, continuing to be the beneficiary of lower energy prices, as BoE pricing remains sensitive to oil prices. Pricing for rate hikes have pulled back, now price in 44bps of hikes in 2026.
- Germany sells EUR 3.025bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.11x (prev. 1.51x), average yield 2.78% (prev. 2.60%), retention 24.3% (prev. 20.1%).
COMMODITIES
- In geopolitics, optimism was seen on Tuesday over a potential end to the war, particularly following Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks. This follows reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump calling on users of the strait to secure it themselves. Trump is due to make an announcement tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST. Some of yesterday’s optimism waned after commentary from the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament, who said: “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.”
- WTI and Brent initially dipped to lows of USD 96.50/bbl and USD 98.35/bbl respectively as markets initially continued the move from yesterday, although a floor was later found on the Iranian deputy speaker comments, with Brent back above USD 100/bbl and WTI near USD 99/bbl at the time of writing, both still lower intraday by over USD 2/bbl apiece. Dutch TTF prices are softer once again after slipping over 7% in the prior session, with desks citing favourable weather alongside hopes of an Iranian war de-escalation.
- Spot gold is slightly firmer amid the softer USD and lower oil prices, with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (4,642.48/oz) in a current USD 4,661.61-4,747.77/oz parameter. Conversely, spot silver is softer on the day following yesterday’s +7% gains, with the metal today finding resistance near its 100 DMA (USD 75.22/oz).
- Base metals mostly eke out mild gains in what is seemingly a function of the USD alongside recent positive sentiment amid hopes of a de-escalation of the Iranian situation. 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 12,380.00- 12,499.75/t range after finding resistance around USD 12,500/t.
- IEA Chief Birol says more than 12mln BPD of oil supply has been lost so far due to the Middle East crisis; the current crisis is worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the loss of Russian gas in 2022 combined. Oil supply losses in April are expected to be twice as high as in March. Biggest problem is a lack of jet fuel and diesel, already affecting Asia and coming to Europe in April–May.
- UK PM Starmer said the fuel duty will remain where it is until September.
- South Korea has raised its energy disruption alert to the second-highest level due to the possible crude oil supply crisis, via Yonhap.
- US extended a Russian oil transit license via Kazakhstan to China until March 2027, according to IFX cites Kazakh Energy Ministry.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- India grants one-time customs duty relief for goods made in special economic zone and sold into domestic market.
- US is rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected now after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Germany’s VDMA said German Engineering Orders -8% in Dec-Feb Y/Y (Domestic Orders -6%, Foreign Orders -8%).
- German Economic Institutes confirm cutting 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts.
- UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st. Increasing national living wage to £12.71. Energy bills are to be cut by average £117 a year for millions across the UK and locked in until end of June.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.7, Low. 49.9, High. 51.9).
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 50.8, Low. 51.4, High. 51.4).
- German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 52.2 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 50.9, Low. 50.9, High. 51.7).
- French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.1, Low. 50.2, High. 50.2).
- Italian S&P Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 51.3 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.6).
- Spanish S&P Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.0).
- Swedish Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 56.3 (Prev. 56.1).
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 53.3 vs. Exp. 47.1 (Prev. 47.4, Low. 46, High. 48).
- Swiss Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -1.1%).
- Swiss Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.1%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoJ new Board Member Asada does not comment on any specific stance. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on growth, creating a stagflationary trend.
- ECB’s Stournaras said if oil prices rise over USD 150/bbl Europe could face a recession.
- ECB’s Dolenc said ECB’s adverse scenario is more likely to be the next baseline and current baseline is more like the best-case scenario.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump signs executive order related to mail-in voting, said working on proof of citizenship and that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time.
- White House said US President Trump will sign a mail-in voting executive order (expected at 22:00BST/17:00EDT).
- US President Trump asks CPA for lists of insurers who were good to clients, and list who were bad in response to California fires.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reported.
- US President Trump tells NBC News on Iran war “it is coming to an end”.
- US advisers who speak regularly with the US President are reportedly uncertain about the mixed signals from Trump, according to Axios. “Some Trump aides and allies say he’s mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan”. “Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. “Nobody knows in the end what he’s really thinking,” a senior adviser said.”.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said have largely destroyed Iran’s air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, adds end to Iran war is not today, not tomorrow but it is coming. said:. There’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission. There is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point. US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
- Iranian Foreign Minister, when asked about the status of negotiations with the US, said “No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept the ceasefire; We seek a complete end”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reiterates Strait of Hormuz is closed to countries at war with Iran and said the US President must change his approach, also noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US. We are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran.
- Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation”, Fars reported.
- Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
- Yemeni Houthi spokesperson claims a joint attack with Hezbollah against Israel, said the escalations will only drive Yemen “to further escalation in the coming period until the aggression stops and the blockade is lifted”.
- Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil posted “I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island”.
- Iran began a new round of missile attacks against Israeli positions, according to SNN.
- Iranian drone reportedly strikes US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Fars news agency.
- Israeli military identified launch of missile from Yemen towards Israel.
- US and Israel attacked weather facilities of Bushehr again, via ISNA.
- Reports of a drone attack on an oil field in the “Chamanke” region, located in the north of Dohuk province in Iraqi Kurdistan; attack caused a fire in this oil field. The field is managed by an American company, Fars News reported.
- Reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia; reporting in proximity to Saudi announcing the interception of two drones in the last few hours.
- Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reported.
- United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
- Powerful explosion rocks American base in Erbil, according to Press TV.
- Iran’s Mobarakeh steel plant hit in US-Israel strike and Khuzestan steel plant also targeted, Mehr News reported.
- UK PM Starmer reaffirmed that the war in the Middle East is not our war and will not be dragged into the conflict. Exploring every diplomatic avenue to reopen Hormuz.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin tops above USD 69k, Ethereum extends above USD 2.1k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran.
- ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs.
- Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53).
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18).
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
- Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q1) 7 vs. Exp. 7 (Prev. 6, Low. -1, High. 9)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
- Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.3% vs. Exp. 13% (Prev. 12.6%)
- South Korean S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 52.6 (Prev. 51.1).
- South Korean Balance of Trade (Mar) 25.74B (Prev. 15.5B).
- South Korean Imports YoY (Mar) Y/Y 13.2% (Prev. 7.5%).
- South Korean Exports YoY (Mar) Y/Y 48.3% (Prev. 29%)
1 c Asian report
Risk supported following positive US-Iran comments; Trump address ahead – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 01:53 AM
- US President Trump is to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday to give an important update on Iran at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, according to the White House.
- US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that “it is coming to an end”.
- White House official said President Trump is confident that an agreement will be reached soon, and said Trump was clear about the consequences of failing to reach an agreement.
- UAE is preparing to help the US and allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
- APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 2.0%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI Finals (Mar), EZ Unemployment Rate (Feb), US ADP Employment Change (Mar), Retail Sales (Feb), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes (Mar), CBR Minutes (Mar), Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Musalem & Barr, Supply from Germany.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said regarding lowering gas prices that all he has to do is leave Iran and suggested the US will be leaving Iran in two weeks or maybe three weeks, while he added that they are finishing the job, which may take two to three weeks, but maybe could make a deal before that. Trump also commented that they have been negotiating with Iran and could exit the war even without a deal with Iran, and reiterated that there had been a regime change.
- US President Trump is to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday to give an important update on Iran at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, according to the White House.
- US President Trump said to NBC News regarding the Iran war that “it is coming to an end”.
- US President Trump and his admin increasingly believe that they cannot promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a prerequisite to declaring “mission accomplished” in the war with Iran, according to CNN.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said they have largely destroyed Iran’s air force and can see the finish line with Iran objectives, while the end of the Iran war is not today, not tomorrow, but it is coming. Rubio also stated that there’s nothing any country is doing to help Iran that is in any way impeding their mission, and there is potential for a direct meeting with Iran at some point, as well as noted that the US is to re-examine NATO ties post-Iran war.
- White House official said President Trump is confident that an agreement will be reached soon, and said Trump was clear about the consequences of failing to reach an agreement, while it was also stated regarding IRGC threats against US companies, that the US military is prepared to curtail any attacks by Iran.
- US is deploying a third aircraft carrier, USS George H.W. Bush, to the Middle East, according to WSJ.
- US State Department was tracking reports of threats in Saudi Arabia where US citizens gather, while the US embassy recommended that all in Saudi Arabia shelter in place.
- UAE is preparing to help the US and allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
- Daily Mail’s Andrew Neil posted “I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island”.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said the solution is an end to aggression and that Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks. He also said US-Israeli military aggression against Iran is an unprecedented crime and a flagrant violation of international law, and that Europe should drop its destructive approach and engage with Iran professionally and in line with international law.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed in a call with the President of the European Council that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to ships of the aggressor countries and their supporters, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told Al Jazeera that what is happening now is not negotiations but an exchange of messages directly or through friends in the region, and there is no truth to negotiations with a specific entity in Iran, while he added that messages arrive via the Foreign Ministry, and there are communications between security agencies. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is conducted within a specific framework through the government and under the supervision of the National Security Council.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has zero trust in the US and dismisses the effectiveness of any potential ground operation targeting Iran, while he noted that a guarantee from 1-2 countries or from the UN Security Council is not enough. He also stated that Iran has no plans for negotiations with the US, and they are ready for any ground threat and are ready for at least six months of war.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in a call with his Turkish counterpart that the reports about the launch of missiles from Iran towards Turkey are completely baseless and warned against the repetition of false flag operations. He also said Iranian armed forces will severely punish aggressors.
- Iran is ready to target the port of Fujairah and its key oil pipeline in order to close the UAE’s route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz if the UAE continues to support US and Israeli attacks, according to Fars News citing sources.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are systematically striking the Iranian regime.
- Israeli army said it struck rocket launch sites in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli military identified the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israel.
- Explosions were heard following a bombing of a site in Bushehr, Iran, while reports noted intense shelling on Natanz and shelling of the Haqani Pier. Furthermore, several explosions were also heard in Qazvin and Isfahan. Furthermore, Iran’s Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel plants were hit in US-Israel strikes.
- UKMTO received a report of an incident 17 nautical miles north of Qatar’s Doha with a tanker hit by an unknown projectile, although the crew are reported as safe.
- Iranian drone struck the US Victoria base in Baghdad and a powerful explosion rocked the US base in Erbil, while Saudi Arabia said two new drones were intercepted.
- Syria’s President said that unless Syria is targeted by any parties, Syria will remain outside any conflict.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rallied at quarter-end as markets welcomed improved prospects for an end to the Middle East conflict after it was previously reported that US President Trump told aides he was willing to end the war without reopening Hormuz, while later reports said the administration could not promise to reopen the Strait and achieve its military objectives quickly. Trump also called on those who use the Strait to secure it themselves. Further optimism followed after Iran’s President Pezeshkian said Iran was seeking no war but was prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks. The commentary triggered a cross-asset reaction, with energy prices falling, stocks rallying, and T-notes gaining on reduced inflation fears.
- SPX +2.92% at 6,529, NDX +3.43% at 23,740, DJI +2.49% at 46,341, RUT +3.45% at 2,497.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US is reportedly rushing to put in place a system to pay back USD 166bln it collected after Trump tariffs were ruled to be unconstitutional, according to Nikkei
- Leaders of Japan and France are poised to agree Wednesday to create a roadmap for diversifying supplies of rare earths and other critical minerals, according to Nikkei.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump considers ending Congress’s two-week recess for a rare special session to end the DHS shutdown.
- US President Trump signed an executive order related to mail-in voting and said they are working on proof of citizenship, while he added that voter ID and citizenship proof are subjects for another time. Trump also reiterated criticism against the Fed Chair and said Jerome ‘too late’ Powell is incompetent.
- Fed Governor Barr said stablecoin integration is expected to drastically optimise global collateral management by enabling atomic, programmable collateral posting. Furthermore, he said it will eliminate overnight margin call delays and operational friction across derivatives, repo and lending markets.
- Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) said inflation is the more salient risk for the Fed and they cannot be complacent about inflation expectations, while he added there is a real risk that inflation will get stuck closer to 3% and that the Fed must follow through with policy actions to validate stable medium- and long-term inflation expectations.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly rallied with global risk sentiment buoyed by hopes for an end to the Iran conflict following encouraging comments from the US and Iran, while President Trump also suggested that the war could end in 2 or 3 weeks, and he will deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday evening to give an important update regarding Iran.
- ASX 200 gained at the open and was led by outperformance in mining, materials, resources and tech, with nearly all sectors in the green aside from some defensives, while the index also shrugged off weak PMIs.
- Nikkei 225 surged back above the 53,000 level amid hopes of a nearing end to the conflict and after the latest BoJ Tankan survey mostly topped forecasts, with the headline large manufacturing index at its highest in more than five years.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood across the region with notable strength seen in mining, tech and biopharmaceuticals, while a miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and the smallest PBoC injection in more than a decade failed to derail the momentum.
- US equity futures held on to recent spoils amid optimism regarding a potential off-ramp in the Iran war.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 2.0% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY remained lacklustre after weakening yesterday as risk appetite was underpinned by optimism of a sooner end to the Iran conflict after recent comments from both Iran and the US, in which Iranian President Pezeshkian said the solution is an end to aggression and that Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks, which marked a notably positive shift in Iranian rhetoric. Furthermore, US President Trump said he believes the Iran war is likely to end soon and other nations can reopen the Strait of Hormuz themselves, while he suggested the US will be leaving Iran in two or maybe three weeks, and he is scheduled to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday to give an important update on Iran. Outside of geopolitics, recent data had little impact on FX, while participants look ahead to more data releases stateside, including ADP Employment Change, Retail Sales, and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- EUR/USD held on to the prior day’s spoils with a firm footing at the 1.1500 handle after benefitting from a softer dollar and with rhetoric from ECB officials touching on the prospects of a rate hike.
- GBP/USD lacked firm direction after the recent choppy performance and rebound from a brief dip beneath the 1.3200 level, while the UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost of living pressure are to come into force today including an increase in the national living wage to GBP 12.71 and with energy bills to be cut by average GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK which will be locked in until end of June.
- USD/JPY paused overnight after sliding beneath the 159.00 level as the dollar was pressured on optimism regarding an end to the Iran conflict, while data releases showed a mostly stronger-than-expected Tankan survey, which supports the case for an April BoJ rate hike.
- Antipodeans were mixed with trade kept rangebound amid the mostly positive risk appetite and disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9025 vs exp. 6.8858 (Prev. 6.9194)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained afloat after ascending to north of the 111.00 level as yields softened across the curve on optimism around a potential end to the Middle East conflict.
- Bund futures extended on their recent rebound and eye a retest of resistance around the 126.00 level, while several PMI releases and a EUR 4bln Bund auction are scheduled later today.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global peers and ultimately shrugged off the BoJ lowering its planned monthly purchases for the new quarter, and with the Tankan survey mostly topping expectations.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures rebounded overnight after retreating yesterday amid hopes for an end to the Iran war after encouraging headlines and comments from US and Iran that signalled both sides were open to ending the war, while President Trump recently suggested it could be over in two or three weeks, and he is scheduled to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday at 21:00EDT/02:00BST to give an important update on Iran. Nonetheless, oil futures have edged higher as strikes continued, including on an oil tanker in Doha, while it was also reported that the UAE is preparing to help the US and allies to open the Strait of Hormuz by force.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.8mln.
- Spot gold initially extended on gains and briefly climbed above the USD 4,700/oz level after oil prices and the dollar retreated yesterday on hopes of a nearing end to the Iran conflict, although the precious metal gradually faded its gains as oil recouped some lost ground.
- Copper futures initially continued their steady advances alongside the positive risk appetite, but with upside capped following the miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively and oscillated around the USD 68,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 0.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40%.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1, Low. 50.5, High. 53)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 17 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 15, Low. 8, High. 18)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 15, Low. 5, High. 15)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 36 vs. Exp. 33 (Prev. 34, Low. 28, High. 36)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 29 vs. Exp. 28 (Prev. 28, Low. 24, High. 34)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin told TASS that talks on Ukraine are on pause.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK government said new measures to ease cost of living pressure to come into force on April 1st, including increasing the national living wage to GBP 12.71, while energy bills are to be cut by an average of GBP 117 a year for millions across the UK and will be locked in until the end of June.
- ECB’s Rehn said the latest Euro-area inflation reading was expected and he is focused on the medium term, while he added a rate hike is not guaranteed.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
/JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA//IRAN
4. European and Scandinavian affairs + NATO
FRANCE ISRAEL
ISRAEL SCALES BACK DEFENSE PURCHASES FROM FRANCE FOR THEIR POSITION IN THE IRAN/ISRAEL WAR
(ZEROHEDGE)
Israel Halts Arms Purchases From France In Rebuke For Iran War Stance
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Israel on Tuesday took the drastic step of announcing that it will halt the acquisition of defense-related goods and services from France, according to an Israeli Defense Ministry announcement.
“The Director General of the Israel Ministry of Defense. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram has decided to reduce all defense procurement from France to zero, replacing it with domestic Israeli procurement or purchases from allied countries,” a Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed.
The move is being done in direct rebuke to France’s decision to not allow flights in its airspace which transport military items to Israel, or also American military flights which are directly connected to Iran war operations. A growing number of NATO and EU countries are doing this, also Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.
The Israeli statement said further, “France has taken a series of actions that have harmed Israel’s security and the operational capabilities of its defense industry.”
“The Israel Ministry of Defense views the French government’s policy with serious concern, as it undermines security cooperation with Israel, a country that is actively operating on the front line against Iran and protecting the security of the Western world,” it added.
Defense ties between France and Israel were already strained going back to the Gaza war:
According to a parliamentary report, France authorized more than 200 dual-use export licences to Israel in 2024 worth €76.5 million — 60 percent less than in 2023 — highlighting how limited and declining defense ties between the two countries already are.
Existing contracts are expected to be honored and private companies may still pursue deals.
Earlier in the day Tuesday, President Trump took France to task for being “very unhelpful” in Iran operations.
“The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory,” Trump stated on Truth Social. “France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ who has been successfully eliminated!”
The American president then emphasized, “The U.S.A. will remember!!!” France’s Macron has pledged his forces will “never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context.” Other EU leaders have said that essentially this is “not our war”.
These same European leaders have long criticized Israel for the immense civilian death toll after two years of war in Gaza. It stands at over 70,000 killed – a figure which Israel has actually acknowledged, with the caveat that at least some one-third of these casualties were Hamas militants. Some estimates say the death toll could be higher.
GERMANY
GOOD LUCK TO HIM ON THIS:
Germany’s Merz Expects 80% Of Syrians To Return Home Within 3 Years
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) met with controversial Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadi terrorist, in Berlin on Monday afternoon.
Among the topics discussed, one of the most prominent was the fact that Merz wants 80 percent of the Syrians currently living in Germany to return home.
“In the longer perspective of the next three years, it is the wish of President al-Sharaa that around 80 percent of the Syrians in Germany should go back into their homeland,” said Merz, before adding: “We need a reliable repatriation option, cooperation with Syria.”
Merz said he supported that, saying many of them “are needed at home.”
The chancellor also made clear that protection statuses would be reassessed.
“Those who have no claim will leave Germany again,” he said — particularly those who “abuse our hospitality.” He balanced this with an acknowledgment that “we are pleased about the many Syrian skilled workers who have integrated.”
Merz reflected on how, roughly a year ago, the dictatorship in Syria “was shaken off,” and reaffirmed that Germany had always stood by the Syrian people, despite the new government being accused of a number of atrocities against minorities, including Christians and Druze.
Merz described reconstruction as an “enormous effort,” stressing that stability and economic performance would be essential for it to succeed. A German delegation is set to travel to Syria “in a few days” to advance cooperation on that front.
The Syrian head of state opened by expressing his “deep gratitude” to Germany, declaring that “Syria is an important country for Europe” and that the country could “come back stronger,” adding: “We want to rebuild our country.”
He noted that 1.3 million Syrians currently live in Germany, including 6,000 doctors who could make a significant contribution to Syria’s recovering economy.
As Remix News has reported in the past, Syria lost many of its doctors due to the war, with many of them ending up in Germany and other countries in the West. However, many of them have expressed little interest in returning home.
Al-Sharaa outlined a vision for a “cycle” allowing Syrians to return home, while those who wish to remain in Germany would be able to work there. He described the new Syria as a constitutional state “for all Syrians — without exception,” emphasizing that the country is “very diverse” and committed to deepening the “rule of law,” pledging to work with Germany “in great transparency.”
Despite what al-Sharaa said and what Merz may desire, there is little evidence that most Syrians have any incentive or motivation to return home.
For one, many of them have already become German citizens, and more are being naturalized each month. Even if the German government wanted to return them, they would have no legal mechanism for doing so unless the entire constitution were rewritten. There have been some extremely isolated instances where German authorities have attempted to strip citizenship, but only for extreme violations of German law, such as terrorism offenses.
Syrians also have little financial basis to return to a war-torn country — one that remains unstable. In Germany, they have access to free healthcare, housing, social welfare, and a host of other benefits not available in Syria. However, German conservatives have been pushing for a return of hundreds of thousands of Syrians who have not yet obtained citizenship, arguing that, overall, the migrant group has been a net drain on welfare and society. Furthermore, since the fall of Assad, the basis for their asylum is generally no longer present.
Syrian migrants have been responsible for an enormous amount of crime in Germany since their arrival, including 135,000 Syrian crimes against Germans since 2015.
Merz announced that Germany would help “stabilise Syria” with €200 million directed toward expanding water supplies, hospitals and vocational schools, assuring al-Sharaa: “You can count on Germany’s support.”
Merz closed with a direct appeal to his Syrian counterpart: “Create a space for everyone in the new Syria!” He tied future joint projects to the rule of law taking hold in Syria, expressing confidence that this goal was within reach.
END
UK
‘A National Calamity’: 1 In 8 UK Children Reported As Disabled By Parents
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Mary Gilleece via dailysceptic.org,
The recent news that one in eight children are now reported by their parents as being disabled ought to prompt an immediate national inquiry into what on earth is causing a large proportion of the population to sicken.
That millions of children and young people are stricken with disabilities ought to be front page news every day until it is sorted out.
The Telegraph reports:
About 12% of children – or around 1.7 million youngsters – are now living with a long-term illness, disability or impairment, according to fresh figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).
This has almost doubled since 2015, when roughly 7% of parents said their child had a disability, according to the department’s closely-watched Family Resources Survey (FRS).
It also comes amid a sharp increase in young people being diagnosed with behavioural issues as well as autism and ADHD.
Almost two-thirds of children with a disability had a “social” or “behavioural” impairment – by far the most common issue cited by parents, the FRS found.
The figures involved ought to terrify everyone for they reveal a population that is riven with ill-health and impairment. If accurate, a National Commission into ‘Physical Deterioration’ similar to the one conducted by Fitzroy in 1904 to find out what was causing the ill-health of young people is needed immediately. With such staggering levels of illness, there is no hope at all that our country will ever return to growth. The Telegraph continues:
The number of children with behavioural disorders who are eligible for disability living allowance (DLA) has almost quadrupled to 276,000 since before the pandemic. This total includes 10,000 children under five and 14 children who are less than a year old.
Roughly 16.7 million people – representing a quarter of Britons – now live with a disability. More women than men claim they have an impairment, though disability is more prevalent among boys than girls.
Scottish people are also more likely to say they are disabled than people living in England or Wales.
The figures show roughly 700,000 of children considered disabled are under 10. More people under 20 are also now in this category than Britons aged over 80.
I am appalled that no-one in politics is calling for an immediate inquiry into these dreadful illnesses destroying the health and chances of so many children. Sure Alan Milburn has been asked to look at the benefits system, but who is investigating the children themselves to find out why they are all so poorly?
The Fitzroy Report was commissioned after the Boer War when it had become apparent that large percentages of recruits were rejected from the Army physical reasons. The report sought:
(1) To furnish the Government and the Nation at large with periodical data for an accurate comparative estimate of the health and physique of the people;
(2) to indicate generally the causes of such physical deterioration as does exist in certain classes;
and (3) to point out the means by which it can be most effectually diminished.
It was thorough in its analysis and took a broad approach to finding out why children were failing to thrive. The commissioners examined such things as “cellar-based and back-to-back housing”, “the employment of mothers too soon after childbirth”, “white bread”, “abuse of tea”, “the desire for pleasure”, “hereditary taint”, “the universal preference amongst the women for factory over domestic life”, “the school system”, “incompetent care”, “parental ignorance and neglect” and “juvenile smoking”, for instance. In a foreshadowing of the current Ultra Processed Food debate, it reports:
A striking consensus of opinion was elicited as to the effects of improper or insufficient food in determining physique, and this factor was acknowledged by every witness to be prominent among the causes to which degenerative tendencies might be assigned, though in one or two cases its relative importance was thought liable to exaggeration.
These latest figures about the catastrophic ill-health of our nation’s children surely ought to demand an equivalent commission. After all, what prompted the 1904 Fitzroy Report is not far off what is happening with today’s Army recruits – growing rejection owing to feeble mental and physical health. In 2019-2020, 28.9% of applicants were rejected for medical reasons growing to 39.2% in 2022-3. Of these, 54% of medical rejections between 2020-24 were for mental health or psychiatric reasons.
This is surely terrifying stuff – our mentally enfeebled young are not fit to fight, to be in school or work. What on earth has happened?
Someone surely should be trying to work out what’s to blame. White bread? Juvenile vaping? Out of town housing estates with no public transport? Smartphones? Gaming? Parental ignorance and neglect? Perhaps others will take up my cry for a national inquiry and calls will grow for someone like Hillary Cass or Louise Casey to get to the bottom of it all.
Or perhaps such an inquiry would discover that actually there’s nothing wrong at all with these children. Instead it will become obvious that millions of healthy children and young adults are being used in an obscene financial grift by private health and education providers, mental health charities and a gullible welfare system.
Terrifying either way.
END
LUXURY GOODS LVMH
LVMH Posts Biggest Quarterly Drop Since Dot-Com; UBS Sees Luxury Opportunity
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 07:45 AM
LVMH, the owner of Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, Bvlgari, Moët & Chandon, and dozens of other luxury brands, just posted its worst quarter since the dot-com bust era, making it the worst-performing European luxury stock this year as demand for luxury handbags, shoes, watches, perfumes, and wines continues to soften amid an intensifying Middle East conflict.
LVMH shares in Paris tumbled 28% in the first quarter, exceeding quarterly declines seen during Covid and the 2008 financial crisis, but not surpassing the 41% third-quarter decline in 2001. Peers Richemont fell 20%, and Hermès slid 25% in the quarter.
“Elevated global uncertainty has generated significant investor anxiety, particularly among those who had been anticipating a long-awaited recovery in luxury demand this year. This has driven a sharp sector de-rating across luxury,” UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note for clients on Tuesday.
Pusz said geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has largely driven de-rating across luxury stocks, leaving sector valuations roughly 15 percentage points below their long-term average relative to the broader market.
The selloff also reflects LVMH’s mounting problems: soft January guidance, greater exposure to more cash-strapped consumers, and continued weakness in its wines and spirits business, especially Hennessy. As a result, the stock now trades at a 20% discount to its peers.
Pusz noted that, despite the grim outlook for luxury, she has not yet seen clear evidence of a real demand slowdown, particularly in Asia, according to recent channel checks.
She added, “Against a backdrop of very negative market sentiment and depressed valuations, we think that even modest Q1 beats could be disproportionately rewarded. Fundamentally, we continue to expect sequential improvement for most companies, though selectivity remains critical. CFR and LVMH are our top picks.”
The Goldman Sachs basket of European luxury stocks (GSXELUXG Index) appears to have found support at 2022 trading levels.
Meanwhile, LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault’s fortune has plummeted by $55.4 billion over the past quarter, the largest drop among the world’s 500 richest people.
“LVMH has become more than a luxury stock, it’s now a barometer of global confidence,” John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion, said. “The issue is not the Middle East exposure itself, but what it signals: uncertainty, pressure on the wealth effect, and fear of a broader slowdown.”
Professional subscribers can read the full UBS “European Luxury” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN
last night
Live Updates: Iran targets Israel with seven missile launches, leaving 16 people injured
Iran attacks cause fires in Kuwait, Bahrain • Trump claims US could end Iran war in two to three weeks • War with Iran was Trump’s ‘last best chance’ to avoid a nuclear Islamic regime, Rubio says
Emergency services respond to the scene of an Iranian cluster munitions shrapnel fall in central Israel on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.(photo credit: MAGEN DAVID ADOM)
Sixteen wounded in central Israel after Iran launches cluster munitions
An 11-year-old girl from Bnei Brak was taken to the hospital in serious condition due to shrapnel injuries. Her condition reportedly worsened following hospitalization.
Israeli security and rescue forces at the scene where a missile fired from Iran toward Israel caused damage in Tel Aviv, April 1, 2026.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)ByMAYA ZANGER-NADISAPRIL 1, 2026 08:21Updated: APRIL 1, 2026 10:28
Sixteen people, including multiple children, were wounded by fragments that impacted in central Israel after Iran launched cluster munitions on Wednesday morning.
A 12-year-old girl from Bnei Brak was taken to the hospital in serious condition due to shrapnel injuries, according to Magen David Adom. Her condition reportedly worsened following hospitalization, according to a statement from Sheba Medical Center, which added that it received a total of eight wounded on Wednesday morning, six of whom were children.
“I saw the girl lying in the living room, and her father—who is also an MDA volunteer—had already begun providing initial treatment,” MDA paramedic Meir Zargarian told Walla.“She suffered injuries to her limbs. We stopped the bleeding and evacuated her… in serious condition.”
Zargarian added that her two brothers were also wounded by shrapnel in their legs. Her father’s condition was classified as moderate, according to a later statement from Sheba Medical Center.
A boy in his early teens and a woman in her 30s, also from Bnei Brak, were taken to the hospital in moderate condition, according to Magen David Adom. The two, mother and son, were wounded while the boy was trying to wake his deaf mother, who could not hear the advanced missile warning, and they did not reach the protected space in time, MDA officials told Walla.
The boy’s condition was later described as serious following his hospitalization, according to a statement from Petah Tikva’s Beilinson Hospital.
Iran attacks Israel with seven launches on the morning of Erev Passover
At 11 additional people who were evacuated to nearby hospitals were reported to be in mild condition, and a further two were treated at the scene. Several buildings were also damaged in the impact.
Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority reported at least four locations of falls throughout central Israel. One of the fall sites was near the US Embassy branch in Tel Aviv, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News.
The launches were each approximately half an hour apart. Sirens initially sounded in central Israel at 7:45 a.m.
A short time later, at approximately 8:30 a.m., sirens sounded again throughout central and northern Israel as Iran launched another missile volley. No injuries were reported following the second launch.
Then, just after 9 a.m., Iran launched an additional volley toward central and northern Israel. The former was intercepted successfully, and the latter did not make it to Israeli territory and did not trigger rocket sirens in the North. Damages were reported in Bnei Brak from impacted shrapnel.
Just before 10 a.m., two more missiles were launched from Iran toward central Israel and were intercepted. One of the missiles was suspected to be another cluster munition. Emergency services received several reports of shrapnel impacts from multiple locations, but there were no reports of injured people.
However, a 6-year-old boy in Rishon Lezion sustained moderate injuries after being hit by a car in Rishon Lezion while en route to a public bomb shelter, according to MDA. He was evacuated to Shamir-Assaf Harofeh Hospital with a head injury.
end
ISRAEL USA VS IRAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING:
Oil Drops As Trump Says ‘Iran Has Just Asked For A Ceasefire’
Oil Unimpressed As Trump Says ‘Iran Asked For Ceasefire’, Threatens Blasting Them “Back To The Stone Ages” If Strait Unopened
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 08:48 AM
Summary
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
* * *
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 08:48 AM
Summary
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
* * *
Trump: Iran President has Asked for Ceasefire, Oil Dumps
President Trump on Truth Social has claimed the US has been directly asked for ceasefire; however, he coupled this with the typical threat of bombing Iran “back to the Stone Ages!!!” Here’s what he said:
Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT
And yet the Hormuz question lingers, after just yesterday Trump strangely said the vital energy shipping waterway would “automatically open”.
First Gulf Country to Directly Join War?
The small but wealthy country of United Arab Emirates appears to be edging toward open confrontation, with Arab officials saying it is preparing to join the US and allied powers in forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz after absorbing Iranian strikes. If so, the move would mark the first time a Persian Gulf state formally enters the conflict as a combatant. Behind the scenes Abu Dhabi is reportedly pushing hard at the UN, lobbying for a Security Council resolution to legitimize military action, while simultaneously urging Washington and its European and Asian partners to assemble a coalition willing to act, according to The Wall Street Journal.
At the same time, the UAE is quietly assessing what it can bring to the fight, from mine-clearing operations to broader logistical and naval support aimed at securing the vital shipping lane. But the ambitions don’t stop there, amid an opportunity to settle old grievances and a territory dispute. Gulf sources say the Emiratis are also floating a far more aggressive idea: that the US should seize key islands in the waterway, including Abu Musa – held by Iran for decades but claimed by the UAE.
However, the fine print is important here…
Trump Mulls NATO Exit
In an interview with The Telegraph newspaper, the president described the alliance as “paper tiger” and, when asked if he would reconsider American membership in the bloc, Trump responded: “Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration.”
“I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” he said, in the remarks published Wednesday. He’s of course angry at refusal of allies to join a military campaign to force back open the Strait of Hormuz.
“Beyond not being there, it was actually hard to believe. And I didn’t do a big sale. I just said, ‘Hey’, you know, I didn’t insist too much. I just think it should be automatic,” he continued. “We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t our problem. It was a test, and we were there for them, and we would always have been there for them. They weren’t there for us.”
And here’s what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera on Monday: “If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States. So all of that is going to have to be reexamined.”
Oil Tanker in Qatari Waters Struck; Kuwait Airport Hit Again
A tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters on Wednesday, in another escalation spilling directly into critical energy corridors. According to Qatar’s defense ministry, three missiles were launched from Iran, with two intercepted but the third slamming into the Aqua 1 fuel oil tanker. While there were no casualties and damage remained above the waterline, the hit came just 17 nautical miles off Ras Laffan, home to the world’s largest gas facility, as Reuters has detailed. Bloomberg has noted, “Since the start of the war in Iran, UKMTO has reported 16 attacks on vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.”
Elsewhere, Kuwait reported a “large fire” at fuel tanks near its international airport following another Iranian strike. This marks the seventh time of the war that the international travel hub was hit, and the last time it took emergency crews well over two days to put out the fires.
The Pentagon continues moving thousands of Marines, Special Forces, and Airborne troops into the region. This is not enough for a full ground invasion force, but could be preparation for a campaign to cut Iran from its strategic islands, such as oil export hub Kharg Island…
Meanwhile, diplomacy continues to look like theater. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he has “no faith” in talks with Washington, confirming that while messages have been exchanged – but that “no negotiations are under way.” On the battlefield, Iran’s IRGC claims its latest barrage – spanning more than 100 heavy missiles, attack drones, and roughly 200 smaller rockets – hit targets across Israel and US military positions in the Gulf. Installations in Bahrain and Kuwait have also been hit, the group said, claiming that US helicopter was destroyed. The IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over.
Ayatollah Breaks Silence with Message Praising Hezbollah
The new, younger Ayatollah Khamenei – who may have been wounded in the early days of US-Israeli strikes, hasn’t been seen in any public way, not even on TV, throughout the war. There have not so much as been any official recent images of him circulated.
But Mojtaba Khamenei has apparently been issuing some limited written statements, mainly encouraging foreign proxies in their joining the war against US and Israeli forces in the region. State media has indicated he’s not making public appearances given the ongoing relentless bombing campaign and the Islamic Republic’s wartime footing.
The 56-year old Khamenei has on Wednesday praised Hezbollah for joining the war against Israel. Hezbollah has been launching hundreds of rockets on northern and central Israel, amid an emerging ground campaign in southern Lebanon, also as Israel bombs Beirut from the air. In the new words carried by Iranian state media, he praised Hezbollah for its “perseverance, steadfastness and patience” against “the most ruthless enemies of the Islamic world.”
END
Iran Says ‘No Truth’ To Trump Assertion It ‘Asked For Ceasefire’, Amid Threat To Blast Tehran ‘Back To The Stone Ages’ If Strait Unopened
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 10:25 AM
Summary
- Iran rejects Trump claim that the “new regime president” asked for ceasefire (which has been Pezeshkian since 2024)
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump to Reuters: will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” if needed. Also says he’s open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
* * *
Iran: Not True that Iran Requested a Ceasefire
Iran has again rejected Trump’s narrative, after he hours ago claimed that “Iran’s New Regime President” has just “asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” Iran’s Foreign Ministry has responded by saying “there is no truth” to “Trump’s statements that Iran requested a ceasefire.” The Iran FM spox statement continues:
“No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept a ceasefire; We seek a complete end.”
As a reminder, President Masoud Pezeshkian has been Iran’s president since July 2024 – and he’s made public appearances in Tehran, even over the last days. There is not a “new regime president”.
Additionally, Trump is now threatening to bomb Iran “back to the stone age” if Hormuz is not reopened, but just yesterday suggested he’s fine with it staying closed and that ultimately others should open it.
TBN ISRAEL LAST 24 HRS
END
IRAN
IDF strikes Iranian regime chemical manufacturer
The factory, owned by the Tofiq Daru Company, was the principal supplier of fentanyl for the Iranian regime’s research and development agency.
An Apache helicopter fires a missile toward Lebanon near the Israeli-Lebanese border in northern Israel, March 30, 2026.
(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
ByARIELLA ROITMANAPRIL 1, 2026 04:56
The IDF struck a factory that transferred chemical substances used in the Iranian regime’s development of chemical weapons on Tuesday, the IDF announced.
The factory was owned by the Tofiq Daru Company, a principal supplier of fentanyl for the Organization of Defense Innovation and Research (SPND), Iran’s Defense Ministry’s development agency.
SPND is responsible for developing chemical weapons for the Iranian regime, said the military’s statements.
The strike comes amidst an IDF announcement that 100% of essential targets will have been destroyed by Wednesday as Israel doubles down on its strikes on sites deemed threatening to Israel.
Among the recent targets are a weapon manufacturing site in Tehran and a uranium enrichment facility in Ardakan.
Substances used for development of chemical weapons
According to the IDF, Tofiq’s factory disguised itself as a civilian company, but was used by the regime for the production of substances utilized in the research and development of chemical weapons.
“The Tofiq Daru Company knowingly and systematically supplied this deadly substance [fentanyl] to the SPND organization, which used it to conduct research and development of chemical weapons,” said the IDF.
Fentanyl is an anesthetic that is considered a highly lethal substance when used in high doses.
The military claimed that the strike on the factory “ impaired the Iranian terror regime’s chemical weapons production capabilities.”
Additionally, the IDF assured that precautionary measures were taken to minimize possible harm to civilians.
END
TRUMP…
@realDonaldTrump
All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT
END
HEZBOLLAH
WATCH: IDF strikes, dismantles missile launchers in southern Lebanon
The launchers were used in the terror group’s latest barrage against Israel, which left three people injured, including a 6-year-old child.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4033652&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF dismantles Hezbollah missile launch site in southern Lebanon, March 31, 2026.
ByARIELLA ROITMANAPRIL 1, 2026 00:07
Updated: APRIL 1, 2026 02:06
The IDF struck and dismantled Hezbollah missile launchers in southern Lebanon, the military announced in a statement Tuesday evening.
The terror group used the launchers in its latest barrage against Israel, which left three people, including a 6-year-old child, injured.
The military is continuing to locate and strike additional launchers, added the statement.
In addition, the IDF launched two separate strikes in the Beirut area early Wednesday morning, killing a senior Hezbollah commander and an additional senior terrorist, according to a military statement.
IDF continues operations in Lebanon
Earlier on Tuesday, the IDF announced that Hezbollah had taken control of the Christian village Qawzah in southern Lebanon to launch rockets and anti-tank missiles.
Additionally, an observation post used to monitor IDF operations in the region was destroyed, and a Hezbollah terrorist found observing Israeli soldiers was detained.
The IDF also reported having killed dozens of Hezbollah terrorists operating in southern Lebanon over the past 24 hours.
This is a developing story.
Northern Israel faces over 50 Hezbollah rocket launches, drone infiltrations, leaving three injured
Three people were lightly injured in the attacks, including a 6-year-old child. Only two people were taken to a nearby hospital for their injuries.
First responders on scene of a fragment fall after an Iranian cluster munition was intercepted over central Israel on March 31, 2026.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)BySHIR PERETSMARCH 31, 2026 09:58Updated: MARCH 31, 2026 22:59
Hezbollah fired over 50 rockets and drones towards the Upper Galilee on Tuesday evening.
Magen David Adom reported that a piece of shrapnel impacted near a house on a kibbutz.
Three people were lightly injured in the attacks, including a 6-year-old child. Only two people were taken to a nearby hospital for their injuries.
Eight people injured in central Israel after Iran fires cluster munition
Earlier on Tuesday, eight people were lightly wounded across several sites in central Israel following several fragments falling from an Iranian cluster munition, Magen David Adom confirmed.
The youngest of those wounded are two 18-month-old babies. MDA took the wounded to be treated at Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center, Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus, and Sheba Medical Center.
Several other people were treated for wounds received on their way to safe rooms or panic attacks.
Additionally, several cars went up in flames after a fragment from an Iranian cluster munition hit a street in central Israel.
Several fragments were found in the Tel Aviv area, and emergency services and police investigated.
Man wounded in northern Israel from Hezbollah fire
In the afternoon, a man in his 50s was moderately wounded in northern Israel after being hit by shrapnel from a rocket launched by Hezbollah.
This is a developing story.
END
IRAN KUWAIT/BAHRAIN
Drone attack sparks fire at Kuwaiti Airport, tanker off Qatar hit as Iran strikes Gulf states
Iran also launched attacks against Qatar and Bahrain in its latest attacks against the Gulf States.
Planes of Kuwait Airways and Qatar Airways are seen through the window of a Middle East Airlines aircraft at Cairo International Airport, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Cairo, Egypt, March 31, 2026.(photo credit: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters)ByARIELLA ROITMAN, REUTERSAPRIL 1, 2026 09:04Updated: APRIL 1, 2026 09:12
Fuel tanks at Kuwait’s international airport were targeted by an Iranian drone in the latest round of attacks by Iran on Gulf States, Kuwait’s state news agency KUNA reported on Wednesday.
The attack sparked a large fire, and emergency teams who arrived at the site found material damage at the facility run by the Kuwait Aviation Fueling Company, said KUNA, citing a spokesperson for civil aviation authorities.
No casualties from the incident were reported.
Tanker hit by two projectiles off Qatar, one unexploded, UKMTO says
A tanker off Qatar was hit by two projectiles, one causing a fire that has since been extinguished and another remaining unexploded in the vessel’s engine room, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Wednesday.
The vessel was struck about 17 nautical miles north of Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub, causing damage above the waterline; the crew was safe, and no environmental impact was reported.
UKMTO said it was unable to confirm the source of the projectiles and that investigations were ongoing.
Airline Emirates says Iranian nationals barred from entering or transiting UAE
Dubai-based airline Emirates’ website said on Wednesday that Iranian nationals were not allowed to enter or transit the United Arab Emirates.
The website of another carrier, Flydubai, said Iranian nationals holding a UAE “Golden Visa” were exempt and permitted to enter and transit the country.
The restrictions come amid heightened tensions between Iran and Gulf states.
Iranian attack causes fire in Bahrain
A fire broke out in a company’s facility in Bahrain following an Iranian missile attack, the Interior Ministry announced early on Wednesday.
Civil defense teams arrived at the scene to extinguish the fire, and the ministry said that the relevant authorities were taking additional necessary measures.
No immediate details were provided on the company, casualties, or the extent of damage.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL/GULF STATES/LATE AFTERNOON
Air Defenses Activated In Dubai; Iran Denies Ceasefire Request, Vows To “Continue Resistance”
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 02:31 PM
Summary
- Air defenses have been activated in Dubai, taking out 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran
- Iran’s new Ayatollah tweets “I emphatically declare that the consistent policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, following on the path of Imam Khomeini and the martyred Leader, is to continue supporting the Resistance against the Zionist-US enemy.”
- “Not true”: Iran rejects Trump claim that the “new regime president” asked for ceasefire (which has been Pezeshkian since 2024)
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump to Reuters: will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” if needed. Also says he’s open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
Air Defenses Activated in Dubai
Stocks were spooked with 90 minutes to go in Wednesday trading, as this morning’s Trumpian optimism melted like a popsicle in July. Not only has fighting intensified throughout the day, the UAE Ministry of Defence officially stated that air defense systems intercepted 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran.
* * *
US, Iran Discussing Ceasefire In Exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormu: Axios
Ahead of Trump’s address tonight at 9pm ET, Axios reports citing three sources that the US and Iran are discussing a potential deal that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz “The officials did not say whether those discussions had taken place directly or only through mediators, and they cautioned that it was unclear whether a deal could be reached. But the officials said President Trump was discussing the possibility with officials inside and outside the administration.” As a reminder, earlier in the day Trump claimed on Wednesday that Iran had asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, but stressed he would only consider it if the strait was reopened. In response, Iran countered that it had not requested a ceasefire.
END
IRAN/LATE AFTERNOON
GARBAGE!!
Iranian President Issues Open Letter To Americans, Questions If Washington Putting “America First” Or Acting As “Proxy For Israel”
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 02:31 PM
Summary
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”
- Air defenses have been activated in Dubai, taking out 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran
- Iran’s new Ayatollah tweets “I emphatically declare that the consistent policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, following on the path of Imam Khomeini and the martyred Leader, is to continue supporting the Resistance against the Zionist-US enemy.”
- “Not true”: Iran rejects Trump claim that the “new regime president” asked for ceasefire (which has been Pezeshkian since 2024)
- UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
- Trump to Reuters: will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” if needed. Also says he’s open to exiting ‘paper tiger’ NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
- Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
- IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with “full intensity and power” – suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
Iran President Releases Open Letter To American People,
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”
In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning recent bombings of Iranian infrastructure, Pezeshkian notes that Tehran harbors no enmity toward ordinary Americans. Instead, he urges the U.S. populace to look past “manufactured narratives,” arguing that the perceived Iranian threat is an invention of the military-industrial complex and Israeli political interests.
The full text of the letter is below:
In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful
To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:
Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.
The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance.
For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.
Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.
Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran.
Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.
At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.
This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?
Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.
Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?
Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today?
I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?
Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
29 Killed In One Of Worst Russian Military Air Disasters Of Ukraine War
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 11:20 AM
Russia has suffered one of its worst aerial disasters of the Ukraine war, as an An-26 Military Transport aircraft went down in Crimea with no survivors reported.
The aerial disaster happened Tuesday, with state media reporting that the aircraft slammed into a cliff during what was described as a routine flight over the Black Sea peninsula.
All 29 onboard, including 23 passengers and six crew, were killed in the crash, marking one of the deadliest recent incidents involving Russian military aviation in the region.
Officials say the trouble began very quickly into the flight. “On 31 March at around 18:00 Moscow time, contact was lost with the An-26 military transport aircraft whilst it was on a scheduled flight over the Crimean Peninsula,” the defense ministry said.
Shortly after, confirmation came from the ground: “The An-26 aircraft, with which communication was lost earlier, crashed into a cliff, it was reported to TASS from the site of the crash.”
While no official cause has been confirmed, early indications point to possible technical failure, which if accurate would mark another blow to aging Soviet-era hardware still widely used across Russia’s military fleet, also as sweeping Western sanctions have been in effect, impacting aviation parts and software.
A huge search effort for bodies is ongoing and is difficult, given the crash happened in a mountainous region. Various emergency units – local and national – are involved.
Meanwhile, separately there are reports of a new drone attack on a Russian petrochemical plant:
“A criminal case was opened into the crash of the aircraft due to alleged violations of Article 351 of the Russian Criminal Code which pertains to violations of flight rules or regulations governing flight preparation, according to a report from the Russian Investigative Committee press office,” one regional report says.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, March 23-March 30, 2026
Comic Alex Duong (42, C); rockers Ross “The Boss” Friedman (Manowar), Matt Krupanski (Boysetsfire); pro footballers Joey Browner, Jeff Siemon, Barret Robbins; pro wrestler Daniel Moody (39); & more
| Mark Crispin MillerApr 1 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (79)
Alex Duong, Comedian and Blue Bloods Actor, Dies at 42, One Year After Rare Cancer Diagnosis
March 29, 2026
Alex Duong, a comedian and actor known for his appearances on Jeff Ross Presents Roast Battle and Blue Bloods, has died following a yearlong journey with cancer. On Saturday, March 28, his friend Hilarie Steele shared on GoFundMe that the comedian died that morning “surrounded by love and dear friends” after having gone into septic shock the day before. “He was comfortable and thankfully out of pain,” Steele wrote, going on to explain that Duong’s wife, Christina, and 5-year-old daughter, Everest, were both able to say their goodbyes before his death. On March 27, Steele shared that Duong was “fighting for his life” after going into septic shock with a “severe and life-threatening infection that has overwhelmed his body.” Emphasizing that everything had “changed so quickly,” she said that both Christina and Duong were “trying to stay strong while navigating the unimaginable” in his final hours. While he had previously experienced headaches behind his eye, Duong was diagnosed with alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma, a rare and aggressive cancer affecting soft tissue, in early 2025 after his manager noticed that his eye looked like it was about to fall out due to swelling and discoloration, per the Los Angeles Times. Not long after his tumor was labeled “extremely aggressive,” Duong said, he lost vision in his left eye completely and felt as if he was “just being fed and given drugs, sitting there getting fat and missing my family.” The comedian told the Times that he spent much of the following year managing “excruciating back pain” and frequenting hospitals to undergo chemotherapy and radiation therapy – despite struggling to meet guild minimums for health insurance as a member of SAG-AFTRA. But eventually, the tumors pushed on his brain and caused him to begin having seizures. As his cancer progressed, Duong found himself back in the hospital for another round of chemotherapy on March 12 as the tumors in his spine had “taken a heavy toll on his body.”
Researcher’s note – SAG-AFTRA and JPC Allow for Mandatory Vaccine [sic] Policies on Production Sets: https://www.dglaw.com/sag-aftra-and-jpc-allow-for-mandatory-vaccine-policies-on-production-sets/
Former Manowar + The Dictators Guitarist Ross ‘The Boss’ Friedman Dies at 72
March 27, 2026
Ross “The Boss” Friedman, former guitarist for Manowar and The Dictators, has died at the age of 72. The news was confirmed in a statement shared by the Metal Hall of Fame on Friday (March 27) afternoon. Back in early February, it was revealed that Friedman had been diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) after noticing several symptoms in the months leading up to the diagnosis.
Researcher’s note – In this April 2020 interview, Friedman looked forward to the arrival of the COVID “vaccines”: https://audioinkradio.com/2020/04/ross-the-boss-friedman-interview/
Founding Boysetsfire Drummer Matt Krupanski Passed Away
March 29, 2026
It seems unimaginable that we’ve lost yet another musician yet, here we are. And, of course it hurts. Yesterday (Saturday, March 29), Boysetsfire shared on their Instagram that their founding drummer, Matt Krupanski [48], has sadly passed away. No cause of death has been given.
Renowned mastering engineer Chris Athens has died
March 24, 2026
Across his esteemed career, Chris Athens worked with artists like Drake, Kehlani, Coldplay, and many others. Mastering engineer Chris Athens has sadly passed away due to complications following a planned heart surgery. The news has been shared in a statement posted on social media by his wife, Judi Krant Athens. She has confirmed that his successful mastering company, Chris Athens Masters, which he founded in 2010, will continue on in honour of his legacy. Athens ran his company alongside engineers Kurt Bradley and Dave Huffman. Together, their work has reached over 288 billion streams, achieved 833 platinum records, and 54 diamond records.
No age reported.
Two former pro footballers on the Vikings “died suddenly”:
Ex-Vikings star, Ring of Honor member Joey Browner dies at 65
March 29, 2026
Former Minnesota Vikings safety Joey Browner died Saturday, the team announced. He was 65. The Vikings, who are also mourning this weekend’s death of former linebacker Jeff Siemon [below], did not disclose Browner’s cause of death.
Researcher’s note – Browner’s brother died unexpectedly less than 5 months ago: SAN LEANDRO, Calif. – Former NFL linebacker Keith Browner Sr. died unexpectedly on Tuesday [Nov 4, 2025] morning in his home in San Leandro, California. He was 63 years old. According to his son, Keith Browner Jr., Browner had experienced stomach issues and vomiting the night before his passing, and collapsed at his residence the next morning. The exact cause of death has not been officially confirmed, but a heart-attack is being considered by family and reporting outlets. Browner belonged to a remarkable football family – his brothers, including Ross Browner and Joey Browner, also played at high levels of the sport, and his son Keith Jr. followed in his footsteps: https://n9.cl/ykmj5
Vikings Mourn Passing of 4-Time Pro Bowl Linebacker Jeff Siemon
March 28, 2026
EAGAN, Minn. – The Vikings are mourning the loss of four-time Pro Bowl middle linebacker and 1972 No. 10 overall pick Jeff Siemon. Siemon passed away Saturday at age 75. No cause of death was given.
Former Raiders All-Pro center Barret Robbins dead at 52: ‘Deeply saddened’
March 27, 2026
Former Oakland Raiders center Barret Robbins has died at age 52, Robbins’ former teammate, Tim Brown, announced on X Thursday night. The cause of death has not yet been publicly released. “It’s with great regret I tell you I just received a call from Marissa Robbins informing me that Raiders All-Pro center Barret Robbins passed away overnight. Thankfully, he passed peacefully in his sleep,” Brown wrote in his post.
Daniel Moody, son of WWE legend Paul Bearer, dead at 39
March 26, 2026
Daniel Moody, the son of legendary WWE manager Paul Bearer who wrestled on the independent scene as DJ Pringle, died Monday night. He was 39. A GoFundMe that was first posted seeking help with medical costs said that Moody “suffered a major health crisis” after undergoing a procedure on Nov. 7. The donation page is now looking for assistance for Moody’s funeral costs. “Daniel was the son of Paul Bearer – a man whose voice, presence, and character became part of wrestling history forever. And like so many second-generation names, Daniel carried that connection with him, while also being his own person in the wrestling world,” Steve Stasiak of the Book Pro Wrestlers agency wrote on Facebook.
No cause of death reported.
Two DJs “died suddenly”:
West Coast House icon DJ Dan has passed away
March 29, 2026
DJ Dan, the seminal West Coast house DJ and producer, born Daniel Wherrett, has passed away. He was 59 years old. Representatives for the artist confirmed the news with a social media post on Sunday, March 29th, 2026, following reports of a missed performance in Reno, Nevada. A cause of death has not yet been revealed.
Las Vegas DJ’s sudden death spurs music festival vigil
March 26, 2026
LAS VEGAS, NV – With a flick of his wrist, Mark Gil Gacutan was able to raise an entire Las Vegas club floor as a prolific downtown DJ. His sudden death led the EDM community to host a 3-day musical festival in his memory. On March 17, Las Vegas police found the body of Mark Gil Gacutan, 29, at Lorenzi Park after family members said they grew concerned he was missing. Mark Anthony, Mark Gil’s brother and DJ partner, said he and other members of the EDM scene are preparing to honor the DJ’s legacy. Mark Anthony, who now performs on the Las Vegas Strip, said they accomplished their dream, but the recent passing of two close family members brought emotional hardship to both brothers. “My brother was having a tough time,” Mark Anthony said. The Clark County Coroner has not yet provided a cause of death for Mark Gil.
Two journalists “died suddenly”:
Grant McOmie, Oregon’s beloved outdoor reporter, dies at 73
March 26, 2026
Grant McOmie, Oregon’s most beloved outdoor television personality, died early Thursday at age 73 following a short illness. The Emmy-winning journalist brought Pacific Northwest nature to countless families through his iconic program. Grant McOmie began his broadcast career at Portland’s KGW-TV in 1981, launching what would become a legendary journey through the Pacific Northwest landscape. In 2008, he rejoined KGW-TV, where he would continue producing content until his recent death.
Researcher’s note – Casts and crews on productions will have to show proof of COVID booster [sic] shots under updated guidelines: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/casts-and-crews-on-productions-will-have-to-show-proof-of-covid-booster-shoots-under-updated-guidelines/
No cause of death reported.
Remembering a woman who helped her community through NEWS CENTER Maine
March 23, 2026
Portland, Maine – A dear friend and former colleague of NEWS CENTER Maine passed away over the weekend after battling stage four metastatic breast cancer for nearly five years. Kim Charland wasn’t a face viewers saw often, but she kept the wheels running behind the scenes for major events that raised money and support for nonprofits throughout the state. Through that, hers became a well-known name. To her coworkers, she was a dear friend. Kim Charland was 44 years old.
Researcher’s note: News Center Maine has consistently produced content promoting vaccines, including the COVID “vaccine”: https://www.newscentermaine.com/vaccine
Watkins Glen mayor dies after 10-month battle with cancer
March 25, 2026
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Fwd: PANDEMIC: COVID pandemic was a 100% fraud, a lie, a hoax on Trump; it was never EVER a pandemic, never met thresho…
PANDEMIC: COVID pandemic was a 100% fraud, a lie, a hoax on Trump; it was never EVER a pandemic, never met threshold of a pandemic & we were lied to deliberately for nefarious reasons by governments
knew 2 weeks out that risk of survival was 99.998% for those 70-75 years old & below! Zero healthy child in US died across 6 years if infected! life expectancy 79 yrs, median age of COVID death is ~83
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMar 31 |
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Markets Have Returned To Taking Headlines As Gospel
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 10:10 AM
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
US Treasury yields have been falling for the past two days. On Monday, we saw US rates grind lower after Powell gave a speech at Harvard University where he seemed to hint that hikes were not part of the Fed’s plan for the immediate future, noting that “tariffs have a one-time impact on inflation” and that “there are risks to both sides of the mandate.” In times like these where inflation fears have been the headline, Powell’s refusal to doomspeak on the inflationary impacts of the war and elevated energy prices said enough on its own.
Powell also took time to talk about the continued issue of Fed independence, or lack thereof, highlighting how “there’s broad consensus” that the Fed requires independence on monetary policy. However, as we have noted previously, history suggests otherwise. The Fed was not independent from the Treasury until 1951 when the Treasury-Fed Accord was signed, and the Bank of England wasn’t formally independent until 1997.
But Powell has taken the issue of independence to heart, having announced that if he feels that Fed independence is at stake, and so long as the DoJ investigation continues, he will remain on the Board of Governors even after his term as Fed Chair ends, preventing Trump from appointing a third Governor to the Board this term.
However, the move lower yesterday was sparked after a Wall Street Journal article reported that “President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.” Should this statement hold water, this would bring a whole new meaning to the TACO trade. But, it appears more likely that it doesn’t, especially when this announcement was sprinkled between threats from the Administration to decimate Iranian desalination and energy infrastructure.
Yet, markets have returned to taking headlines as gospel and 2 year yields closed down more than 3bp yesterday. Meanwhile, whereas last Friday the OIS curve indicated investors were positioned for around 6bp worth of hikes from the Fed by 2026 year-end, yesterday they were positioned for 8bp worth of cuts. USD came under pressure due to the broad move in yields as the DXY Index closed down 0.65%, back below the 100-handle for the first time since Friday. USD weakness was especially visible against the euro, with EUR/USD closing the day up 0.80%, back to 1.15. We will also note that yesterday was the end of March and the end of Q1, so some of yesterday’s price action may also be a result of rebalancing flows.
What markets cared significantly less about was a new five point peace plan proposed by China and Pakistan. The plan includes talk of an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is likely to go the same way as Iran’s proposed five point plan and the US’ fifteen point plan—nowhere at all. Markets were rocked, however, after a report circulated that Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran was prepared to end the war if they “receive guarantees.” These guarantees, of course, are the same as the five point plan already proposed, and there was no confirmation that this announcement was a tangible indicator that the war will come to a close anytime soon, as FX and rates markets quickly retraced in response. The S&P 500, however, took that move and ran with it, jumping 1.16% to $6,515, and grinding above that level the rest of the US afternoon.
Trump’s focus, however, has shifted back to Europe. In a Truth Social post, Trump bemoaned Europe’s refusal to get involved, and has especially called out the UK’s Keir Starmer, saying that “all of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…build up some delayed courage…and just TAKE IT…the USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Trump’s ire comes as several European countries, including the UK, have pushed back on US demands in the context of the war. This includes France’s refusal to allow American planes headed to Israel to flay over French territory, Italy denying US aircraft access to a base in Sicily, and of course, the UK’s hesitancy and red tape in allowing American access to British military bases.
While markets have focused on the energy crisis in the middle east, another war is fueling its own energy crisis further north. Russia’s Ust-Luga port was damaged after being struck by Ukrainian drones for the fifth time in ten days. According to Bloomberg, “Primorsk and Ust-Luga handled about 45%, or 1.72 million barrels a day, of Russia’ seaborne crude exports,” and the damage has set Russia’s oil flows to its lowest level in more than a year
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Asia Burns More Coal As Middle East War Sends LNG Prices to 3-Year Highs
Tuesday, Mar 31, 2026 – 06:55 PM
Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,
Coal is back with a bang in Asia’s power generation, as countries scramble to contain the LNG supply shortage due to the war in the Middle East.
Coal hasn’t really left most Asian economies, which rely on the fuel for much of their power generation. Amid the squeeze of natural gas supply due to the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz and the sky-rocketing LNG prices that few buyers in Asia can afford, nations are scrapping previous restraints to the use of coal-fired power generation.
Developed economies like Japan and South Korea are raising the use of coal-fired power generation, while developing nations China, India, Bangladesh, and most of Southeast Asia are leaning even more on coal as gas has become scarce and much more expensive.
Asian countries “are opening the tap on coal generation to help offset rising gas prices and supply risk,” Anthony Knutson, global head of coal at Wood Mackenzie, told the Financial Times.
Coal cannot fully replace the lost gas supply, but it creates a welcome buffer to help Asia go through the biggest supply disruption in energy markets, ever.
China, India, South Korea, Japan, and the whole of Southeast and South Asia are using the coal buffers they have created in recent years. Their insistence that diversification and energy security are more important than headline emission reductions is paying off as spot LNG prices in Asia surged by 70% to three-year highs that few countries in Asia Pacific can afford.
The current loss of gas supply, with Qatar’s LNG offline, could be immediately partly offset by higher coal use and coal will take market share from gas and LNG in the power sectors in Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Southeast Asia, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said during the first week of the now five-week-long war.
Ramping up renewables and increased focus on domestic gas production, where possible, could also mitigate the gas supply losses from the Middle East, but these are not immediate solutions, according to WoodMac.
So coal remains the immediate fuel to replace gas. Although coal prices have increased by 17% since the war began, the rise is small compared to the 70% jump in Asia’s spot LNG prices.
END
HUGE STORY//AI
Russian Oil Exports Plunge After Drone Strikes Cripple Key Baltic Ports
Headline from ZeroHedge (republishing a Bloomberg report dated March 31, 2026) accurately reflects recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
What Happened
A series of Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russia’s key Baltic Sea oil export terminals at Primorsk and Ust-Luga (in Leningrad Oblast, near the Finnish border and St. Petersburg) over the week of March 23–29, 2026. These ports together handle a significant portion of Russia’s seaborne crude and oil product exports—roughly 1.7–2 million barrels per day, or about 40–45% of Russia’s total seaborne oil exports in normal times.
bloomberg.com
- Impacts reported:
- Storage tanks were set ablaze, causing large visible fires and plumes of black smoke (some visible from Finland).
- Oil loadings were halted or severely disrupted for much of the week, with Baltic shipments dropping to about one-third of the prior week’s volume.
- Weekly Baltic exports fell to the lowest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (only ~16 million barrels loaded on 22 tankers vs. ~28.5 million on 37 the previous week).
- Russia’s overall oil flows hit a one-year low, with an estimated revenue loss exceeding $1 billion in that single week—despite elevated global oil prices from other geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East conflicts). bloomberg.com
Russian authorities (including the regional governor) confirmed fires and damage at Ust-Luga on multiple occasions, with Ukraine’s SBU claiming responsibility for successful strikes on the oil terminals. Some loadings tentatively resumed at reduced capacity later, but repeated attacks prolonged the disruptions. Russian oil producers reportedly warned buyers of potential force majeure declarations on supplies.
reuters.comBroader Context
- These strikes are part of Ukraine’s intensified campaign against Russian energy infrastructure (refineries, depots, and export routes) aimed at reducing Kremlin war revenues.
- The Baltic ports are critical because much of Russia’s oil export strategy relies on its “shadow fleet” of tankers to bypass Western sanctions and price caps.
- This disruption coincides with other pressures on Russian exports (e.g., prior damage elsewhere and global market volatility), though Russia has historically rerouted some flows via pipelines or other ports like Novorossiysk.
- Analysts described it as one of the most severe short-term disruptions to Russian oil export capacity in the war so far.
The story has been widely covered by Bloomberg, Reuters, The Moscow Times, and others, with consistent details on the port damage, loading halts, and export drop. ZeroHedge’s article largely mirrors the Bloomberg piece.In short: The headline is not exaggerated—Ukrainian drone strikes did cause a sharp, temporary plunge in Russian Baltic oil exports last week. Recovery depends on repair timelines, which could stretch into April or longer for full capacity. Global oil markets are watching closely for knock-on effects
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1591 UP 0.0018
USA/ YEN 158.38 DOWN 0.180 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3281 UP 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3898 DOWN 0.0006 CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 56.69 PTS OR 1.46%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 574.00 PTS OR OR 2.25%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.20%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 574.00 PTS OR 2.25%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 56.69 PTS OR 1.46%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.20%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 2709.28 PTS OR 5.31%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4730.25
silver:$74.88
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.47 MINUS 1 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.49 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 80 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7950 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.426 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.474 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.092 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 99.38 DOWN 41 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.416% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.315% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.622 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.475 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.858 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2988 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1611 UP 0.0037 OR 37 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.50 DOWN 0.083 OR YEN IS UP 8 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.855 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.477 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 17 BASIS pts to 1.3887
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8764 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8780
TURKISH LIRA: 44.47 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.327.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.919 UP 3 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.807 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4732.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 74.82
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 188.34 PTS OR 1.85%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 618.85 OR 2.73%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 164.33 PTS OR 2.10%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 530.80 PTS OR 3.11%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1405.24 PTS OR 3.17%
WTI Oil price 100.75 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 102.17 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.52 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 77 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.485 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.109 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1542 UP 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3295 UP 0.0053 OR 53 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8270 DOWN 6 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.450 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.313 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.618 DOWN 9 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.89 UP 0.308 OR YEN DOWN 31 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3885 DOWN 0.0018 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 99.76
Brent OIL: 99.76
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.329
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 3 PTS to 4.911%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.772 UP 5 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.510 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.118 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.46 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.48 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.59 DOWN 0 AND 70/100 roubles //
GOLD $4766.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 75.44 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 274.35 OR 0.48%
NASDAQ 100 UP 279.80 PTS OR 1.18%
VOLATILITY INDEX 24.62 DOWN 0.63 PTS OR 2.50%
GLD: $ 437.68 UP 7.39 PTS OR 1.72%
SLV/ $68.12 UP 0.02 PTS OR OR 0.03%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 190.19 PTS OR 0.58%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Who’s The Fool? Trump-Talk Kicks Off April With Big-Tech & Bullion Bid, Crude Cracks
WRAP UP
Risk-on trade continues as markets welcome constructive comments to end US-Iran war – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 04:11 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US ADP (Mar), ISM Mfg. (Mar), and Retail Sales (Feb) top expectations; ISM prices paid jumps; Trump said new Iran regime President has asked for a ceasefire, US will consider when Hormuz is open; Iran rejects Trump’s claim they requested ceasefire; Trump to reportedly declare Iran war ‘winding down’ in address tonight; Trump is reportedly strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran; Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament says “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened; UAE is reportedly preparing to help the US/allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force; US DoE soliciting an exchange of up to 10mln bbls of crude oil from the Bryan Mound SPR site; NKE guidance and turnaround efforts disappoint; Hawkish Musalem
- COMING UP: Data: South Korean Inflation (Mar), Australian Trade Balance (Feb), Swiss Inflation (Mar), US Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/28), Trade Balance (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Feb). Events: UK DMP. Speakers: US President Trump; Fed’s Logan, Bowman. Supply: Japan, France.
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MARKET WRAP
US indices and most sectors ended the day in the green amid broader risk-on trade as participants seemingly took sentiment regarding constructive remarks from the US on the conclusion of the Iranian war, although Iranian officials pushed back on this at every opportunity. Overnight, Trump’s said that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks, which followed reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran officials denied this, and comes ahead of the President’s address at 21:00EDT this evening; many of the details have been touted, as he will seemingly lambast NATO, and declare 2-3 more weeks of the war. Note, reports suggest that an imminent withdrawal/de-escalation isn’t expected. Geopolitics continues to dictate sentiment and price action, but there was quite a bit of US data, with the main driver being a strong ADP report, which topped expectations, ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. Retail sales and ISM also topped, with the prices metric soaring on the latter and survey respondents clearly concerned about the Iranian war. Back to sectors, Industrials and Communications outperformed, while Energy was the notable laggard and was hit by weakness in oil prices. Nike slumped post-earnings amid soft guidance and questions residing over the turnaround strategy, while Micron pared some of its recent selling. Precious metals gain, with spot gold outperforming its peers. Treasuries flatten as the ADP beat limited further upside in the short-end. Fed speak came via hawkish Musalem, Barr, and Barkin, albeit garnered little reaction. As mentioned, traders await Trump overnight.
US
ISM MANUFACTURING (Mar): ISM Manufacturing in March rose to 52.7 from 52.4, above the expected 52.3. Prices jumped 78.3 (exp. 72.5, prev. 70.5), potentially on the Iran conflict, while new orders dipped to 53.5 from 55.8. Employment was more-or-less unchanged at 48.7 from 48.8. Production and supplier deliveries edged higher to 55.1 (prev. 53.5) and 58.9 (prev. 55.1), respectively, and while inventories dipped to 47.1 from 48.8. Backlog of orders fell, but remained above 50, while new export orders and imports declined, with the former falling below 50. In survey respondents, Iran and the Middle East was a consistent topic, as it was the first report with panellists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business. Recapping some of these remarks, 1) “The actions in Iran add a new wrinkle to energy costs throughout the world, and continue to try and plan for the unpredictable and unexpected”; 2) “Current Middle East unrest is already starting to impact business operations by increasing lead times, costs, container delays and the like.” 3) “Ongoing geopolitical instability has emerged as a persistent factor influencing global trade dynamics”. 4) “Middle East war has created domestic and global turmoil for the olefins and polyolefins business”.
ADP (Mar): ADP employment in March rose 62k, more-or-less unchanged from the prior 66k, and above the expected 40k. Median pay changes saw job-stayers’ wage growth unchanged at 4.5%, and job-changers ticked higher to 6.6% from 6.3%. The ADP employment report offsets the softer signal from Tuesday’s JOLTS report, with Oxford Economics noting its points to a labour market that’s cooling gradually, not cracking. Given the Iran conflict, OxEco adds that March ADP figures are likely too early to see any effects of the US/Israel-Iran conflict, which they expect will weigh on hiring via delays and reduced demand. Regarding the growth on the headline, it was broad-based, with declines limited to manufacturing and trade/transport/utilities, while small firms continued to drive most of the hiring.
RETAIL SALES (Feb): Retail Sales growth was 0.6%, above the expected 0.4%, showing a decent rebound and the highest print in seven months from the prior decline of 0.2%. Behind the rebound was an increase in sales at department stores (3%), health and personal care stores (2.3%), and clothing (2%). The core gauge, Control Group, rose 0.5% (prev. 0.3%). Ex-autos increased 0.5% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.0%), and Ex-Gas/Autos rose 0.4% (prev. 0.3%). Oxford Economics expects the war with Iran to start impacting retail sales in March, as higher personal outlays for gasoline begin to crowd out discretionary spending. The firm cautions that the impact will take longer to materialise than normal, as households are benefiting from a large increase in tax refunds.
FED
BARR (voter): Inflation has been brought down from 2022 highs to about 3% today, but emphasises the Fed has more work to do to get it down to 2% via continued rate adjustments. Adds AI impact on labour market so far has been relatively small, and higher US productivity probably has not yet resulted from AI.
BARKIN (2027 voter): Consumer spending still seems resilient, do not see inflation expectations at risk of breaking out, and expects slow progress on inflation, not a quick return to target. Households and firms see the oil shock as short-term.
MUSALEM (2028 voter): Said US monetary policy is ‘well positioned,’ and views policy currently at the low end of the neutral range (very hawkish), and should hold in place ‘for some time’. Similar to 2027 Goolsbee, he can see scenarios to both raise and cut interest rates. Musalem warns that supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in the current environment and is cautious about looking through the impact of energy shocks. On tariffs, he noted they are an inflation driver, but their impact should wane. His baseline case sees good growth, moderating inflation, and stable unemployment. Although he has lowered the probability of the baseline scenario and increased the likelihood of alternative scenarios. The St. Louis Fed President described financial conditions as broadly accommodative and does not see broad stress from private credit issues. He remains committed to getting inflation back to 2%, with core services inflation being high, while if you take away tariffs, you still have 2.5% inflation on a 12-month basis. He argues that taking steps to reduce demand for reserves from the financial system would be a smoother way to do it.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 2 TICKS LOWER AT 110-31+
T-Notes flatten as the ADP beat limits further upside in the short-end. At settlement, 2-year +1.2bps at 3.803%, 3-year +1.7bps at 3.830%, 5-year +1.2bps at 3.953%, 7-year +0.8bps at 4.137%, 10-year -0.2bps at 4.317%, 20-year -1.4bps at 4.901%, 30-year -1.0bps at 4.900%.
THE DAY: T-Notes flattened on Wednesday as continued broad upside in the space was likely capped by US data, particularly ADP (Mar), which posted 62k gains in private employment (exp. 40k). Profit-taking after a good streak in gains in the short end was likely in play, as Trump’s nationwide address on Iran tonight brings a fresh wave of uncertainty. As it stands, reports suggest that an imminent withdrawal/de-escalation isn’t expected, with the US President to reiterate the 2-3 week timeline to exit Iran. ZN (M6) hit highs of 111-14+ in the EU morning, before US data helped the gains reverse into losses. Other US data was at play, yet had a lesser impact on price action, but all the same sent similar signals to ADP. Retail Sales and ISM Manufacturing both beat, albeit still within the forecast ranges. Within ISM, the Prices Paid component shows no sign of taking a breather after a sharp jump in February, rising 7.8 points in March to 78.3 as all six major industries posted M/M rises. It also offers an early gauge into the inflationary impacts on US data, with higher steel and aluminium prices due to supply disruption in the region contributing to the sharp increase. The street is turning towards NFP on Friday or the next gauge on the labour market in March, expected to show a rebound in employment of 48k prev. -92k)
SUPPLY
Bills
- US sold 17-wk bills at high-rate 3.615%, B/C 2.95x
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Money Market Pricing (implied bps): April 1.8bps (prev. 2.3bps), June 0.6bps (prev. 0.5bps), July -0.7bps (prev. -1.2bps), December -6.0bps (prev. -5.3bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 2.11bln (prev. 15.78bln) across 9 counterparties (prev. 12)
- SOFR at 3.68% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 3.280tln (prev. USD 3.082tln) on March 31st
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 86bln (prev. USD 105bln) on March 31st
CRUDE
WTI (K6) SETTLED USD 1.26 LOWER AT 100.12/BBL; BRENT (M6) SETTLED USD 2.87 LOWER AT 101.16/BBL
The crude complex was lower, albeit choppy, as slightly more constructive remarks surrounding the end of the war seemingly supported the downside, despite Iranian pushback. Optimism in the space was initially seen, particularly following US President Trump’s overnight comments that the US could leave Iran in two to three weeks, which followed reports that the US could exit Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Despite saying that, and while benchmarks closed off lows, some of the optimism waned as the Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament stated, “Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation, and there will be no negotiation.” Iran further pushed back on the comments, as a Foreign Ministry spokesman said there is no truth to Trump’s statements that Iran requested a ceasefire, and only Iran and Oman will decide the future of the Strait of Hormuz. In more recent trade, Axios’ Ravid reported that three US officials told him discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return for the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, although the officials said it is unclear if a deal can be reached. Meanwhile, reports suggested an Israeli official noted talks between the US and Iran are “not progressing positively”. We had a key address (a letter by Iranian President Pezeshkian to the American people), though it was more aimed at US citizens as opposed to the US admin, absent of escalatory rhetoric to reignite tensions after welcoming diplomacy-aimed remarks on Tuesday. Next up, US President Trump’s nationwide address begins at 21:00EDT/02:00BST. Ahead of the addresses, we have seen benchmarks pare some losses, with some of Trump’s topics of discussions widely reported; Trump to reiterate 2-3 week timetable for ending operations in Iran, and will express disgust with NATO, after Telegraph reported this morning Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran. WTI traded between USD 96.50-103.31/bbl and Brent USD 98.35-105.94/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.72% at 6,575, NDX +1.18% at 24,020, DJI +0.48% at 46,566, RUT +0.64% at 2,512
SECTORS: Energy -3.89%, Consumer Staples -0.57%, Financials UNCH, Real Estate +0.36%, Utilities +0.45%, Health +0.80%, Consumer Discretionary +0.92%, Technology +1.14%, Materials +1.16%, Industrials +1.65%, Communication Services +1.65%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +3.05% at 5,740, Dax 40 +3.01% at 23,314, FTSE 100 +1.84% at 10,364, CAC 40 +2.10% at 7,981, FTSE MIB +3.22% at 45,736, IBEX 35 +3.15% at 17,586, PSI +1.84% at 9,300, SMI +1.44% at 13,006, AEX +1.76% at 977
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Energy SPDR ETF (XLE): Oil prices slip after Trump said could leave Iran within two to three weeks.
- Nike (NKE): Soft guidance; downgraded at JPM, GS, & BofA.
- RH (RH): Profit, rev. & outlook missed.
- Calm-Maine Foods (CALM): EPS & rev. beat.
- nCino (NCNO): Quarterly metrics & guidance topped expectations.
- Target Hospitality (TH): Secured over a USD 550mln data centre hub contract.
- Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC): Banks upgraded at HSBC to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.
- UnitedHealth (UNH): Upgraded at Raymond James to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’.
- Rivian (RIVN): Upgraded at DA Davidson to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) weight loss pill orforglipron gets US FDA approval.
FX
USD was broadly weaker as markets continued to place an optimistic significance on the Iranian President’s remarks on Tuesday, which welcomed a diplomatic route to end the war. US President Trump suggested will be leaving Iran in two weeks or maybe three weeks, and could exit the war even without a deal with Iran. Risk-sentiment improved once again across assets as markets look through rebuttals from Iranian media outlets and other officials, viewing openness to end the war from both sides as a positive signal. However, in the US afternoon, USD came off lows as markets got tentative ahead of addresses from the Iranian President and US President Trump overnight. There was little follow-up from the Iranian President’s remarks from Tuesday as he sent more of a diplomatic outreach in his letter to the American people as opposed to the Trump admin, which seemingly disappointed markets, waning on risk appetite. Meanwhile, US data had a limited reaction, albeit largely contained in the Treasury space, in which yields rose after the ADP (Mar) report topped expectations. Retail sales and ISM also beat. Trump is expected to give a nationwide address tonight, where he is anticipated to disparage NATO, float Iranian success, and reiterate the 2-3 week timeline left in operations. DXY came off 99.298 lows to about 99.63 at the time of writing.
GBP led gains vs USD as further retreat in European gas prices supported strength. The UK government confirmed new measures to ease the cost-of-living pressure are to come into force today. BoE Governor Bailey spoke, thinking markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes. GBP/USD peaked at 1.3346 before trimming to ~1.3295.
CHF posted decent strength, reversing Tuesday’s underperformance. JPY posted marginal weakness after a strong WTD, with the stronger-than-expected Japanese Tankan Survey supporting the case for an April BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY bounced off earlier 158.274 lows to now around 158.87.
USA DATA RELEASES
the normal bullish report from ADP
(zerohedge)
ADP Employment Reports Shows Better Than Expected Job Gains, Accelerating Wages
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 08:24 AM
Hiring and pay gains both held steady in March.
The ADP National Employment report printed a better than expected +62k jobs added in March (+40k exp) and modestly down from an upwardly revised 66k in February.
That is the ninth straight month of job gains.
Source: Bloomberg
The smallest employers drove job growth for a second month, while hiring in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to decline.
“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
“In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”
Additionally, pay for job-stayers rose 4.5% in March Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged for the third month. For job-changers, year-over-year pay gains accelerated to 6.6%…
Certainly no signs yet of the AI displacement as the no hire, no fire (after JOLTS and Claims) economy chugs along.
END
RETAIL SALES
US Retail Sales Jumped Most In 8 Months In February
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 08:41 AM
Bank of America’s omniscient analysts forecast a very strong month for Retail Sales in February data (released today)…
The actual print was +0.6% MoM (better than the 0.5% consensus, but less than BofA’s forecast) comes after a revised higher 0.1% MoM decline in January (and December’s nothingburger)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the highest MoM rise since June 2025, and sales rose 3.7% YoY…
Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) rose 0.5% MoM (much better than expected) and Ex Autos and Gas also rose more than expected (+0.4% MoM).
Food and Beverage spending fell while Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers saw the biggest jump…
Most importantly, the ‘Control Group’ which plugs into the GDP calculation rose 0.5% MoM (also considerably better than expected).
Interestingly, ‘real’ retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) have rebounded from a negative print in December…
Of course, this data was before the war started and before gas prices really exploded (but then again April’s tax refunds may offset some of the pain).
END
MANUFACTURING SECTOR….
“Resilient” US Manufacturing Sector Surges In Face Of War, Prices Paid Up
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 10:07 AM
Amid the fog of war and fading ‘hard’ data, the final March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 52.3 (a small drop from the flash 52.4 print), higher than the 51.8 print for February.
“Faster growth of output in March points to encouraging resilience for US manufacturing in the face of the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI also rose from 52.4 to 52.7 – the highest since August 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Prices Paid continued to rise dramatically while New Orders and Employment dipped…
Business confidence regarding output in the year ahead has also so far held up well, if one follows the S&P Global report.
“This sustained resilience in part reflects reduced concerns over government policies such as tariffs, but also indicates that producers anticipate only a short-term and modest impact from the war, which is clearly uncertain.
It remains early days in terms of the impact of the conflict, and a sharp rise in prices and delivery delays has cast a cloud over the outlook, threatening to drive inflation higher, dampen demand and throttle supply chains, warns S&P Global’s Williamson.
Factory input costs have already jumped higher on the back of surging oil prices and supplier delays have become more widespread than at any time since October 2022, linked to the war exacerbating existing shipping, haulage and port delays.
“Some manufacturers are hence reporting stock building as a precaution against future price rises or supply shortages, and hiring has almost stalled in order to reduce staffing costs, underscoring the growing concern about how the war might cause problems for factories in the coming weeks.”
Obviously, if price pressures and supply delays persist, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be more seriously affected.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Bush Carrier Begins Scheduled Deployment Across Atlantic, With USS Ford Down For Repairs In Croatia
Tuesday, Mar 31, 2026 – 08:10 PM
The aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush departed its homeport in Virginia on Tuesday to begin operations for its scheduled deployment, at a moment the Iran war has shown signs of escalation – even as the White House signals it’s ready to find an offramp. The new carrier group could add a big further US force injection, assuming that’s the purpose.
The Bush carrier just launched from Naval Station Norfolk, the Navy confirmed. The full George HW Bush Carrier Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing 7 over 5,000 sailors and military personnel, and accompanying destroyers – the USS Ross, USS Donald Cook and USS Mason – which are expected to joint the Bush carrier as it transits the Atlantic Ocean.
At this point it is unclear whether its final destination will be related to the Iran theatre of operations, either on the eastern Mediterranean or in the Gulf region – but Rear Adm. Alexis Walker, commander of the strike group has said the group’s “sailors are ready and able to do the nation’s bidding.“
The carrier’s scheduled area of operations is the US Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations, which does include the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The USS Abraham Lincoln is currently launching US warplane flights engaged in the bombing of Iran, and the USS Ford has been forced to return to port, now in Split, Croatia – after a large fire on board which resulted in injuries.
The US Navy has said the Ford’s urgent repairs were for things which don’t impact the vessel’s combat systems.
Forbes details that “While in port on the Greek island, Forward Deployed Regional Maintenance Center personnel, including structural engineers, naval architects, and other subject matter experts, conducted an initial repair assessment, the U.S. Navy announced. In addition, military and federal civilian law enforcement continued investigations into a fire serious enough to require the ship to head to Split.”
Bryan Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, has said: “They are probably mostly repairs to the laundry and surrounding berthing spaces, so laundry equipment, insulation, lighting, internal bulkheads, etc.”
Earlier in the Iran war Pentagon officials acknowledged the fire but presented it as an ‘accident’ amid an ongoing investigation, despite Iran saying it attacked the carrier. Speculation has since grown over whether this is a Pentagon cover-up to conceal that it was successfully attacked by the Iranians, especially given the the damage appears worse than initially reported.
END
“Finish This Thing, Finish It Right”: JPM CEO Jamie Dimon Weighs In On Iran War
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 12:00 PM
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon appeared on Fox & Friends on Tuesday, covering everything from artificial intelligence to the economy to the continuing exodus from radical-left blue states. More notably, he offered his views on the U.S.-Iran war, which this week entered its fifth week and has remained at the center of the news cycle.
Dimon was first asked about the energy shock from the US-Iran conflict and whether surging fuel prices would impact the American economy.
“Look the markets are unpredictable and it’s hard to for me to tell you exactly what,” Dimon said of a potential impact.
“But I think they’re just looking at, is there a chance something can go wrong now? We should all hope nothing goes wrong. We should all hope that … we win this thing and clean up the straits and that Iran is no longer a threat to everybody. The markets will be concerned until it’s over.”
Dimon added, “It’s much more important that this be successfully completed than what the market does.”
He noted, “Yes, I hear people say they were not an imminent threat. But these people have been engaged in violent acts for 47 years, killing people, killing Americans, and funding Hamas. Several Americans were killed on October 7. They have fought proxy wars and threatened people. A ballistic missile can travel 3,000 miles. These are bad people who needed to be stopped. I do not know what the military and the president know, but we have to finish this thing and finish it right.”
Layered on top of Dimon’s comments yesterday is a broader geopolitical framework laid out earlier this month by Zoltan Pozsar of Ex Uno Plures.
In Pozsar’s view, the Trump administration is “methodically building a portfolio of assets” from Venezuela to the Panama Canal to Iran’s oil flows and the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy aimed at reasserting American dominance, securing the empire for years to come, and tightening the screws on Beijing after last year’s rare earths stunt.
END
TRUMP AND NATO
IT IS ABOUT TIME THE USA ABANDONS NATO
(zerohedge)
Trump May Pull Out Of ‘Paper Tiger’ NATO After Starmer Stiffs Strait Support
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 12:20 PM
In a blistering exclusive interview with The Telegraph, President Trump has declared he is “strongly considering” pulling the United States out of NATO, branding the 77-year-old alliance a “paper tiger” after European allies – including the UK under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer – refused to join America’s military campaign against Iran or help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump told the newspaper the decision was now “beyond reconsideration,” adding: “I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.” He singled out Britain, mocking its naval capabilities and Starmer’s green-energy focus: “You don’t even have a navy. You’re too old and had aircraft carriers that didn’t work… All Starmer wants is costly windmills that are driving your energy prices through the roof.”
The row erupted after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows – in response to US-Israeli strikes launched on February 28. Allies have been reluctant to deploy warships, prompting Trump to accuse NATO of operating a “one-way street.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the president on Fox News, warning that America would have to “re-examine” its NATO membership once the Iran conflict ends. “If Nato is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” Rubio said. Trump later told The Telegraph he was “glad” Rubio had spoken out.
Starmer Fires Back: “This Is Not Our War”
Starmer moved quickly to reaffirm Britain’s commitment to NATO while drawing a firm line on the Iran conflict. “This is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it,” he told The Telegraph, describing the alliance as “the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen.” He signalled a pivot toward closer European cooperation “whatever the noise” from Washington.
END
Blue States Are Still Facing A Mass Taxpayer Exodus Long After COVID
Tuesday, Mar 31, 2026 – 10:40 PM
Remember when blues state Democrats tried to enforce sweeping pandemic mandates for years after it became clear that covid was not the “mass killer” that the supposed experts claimed it would be? Remember when they called for people to be jailed for publicly speaking about scientific facts that contradicted the narrative? Remember when they called for people’s children to be taken away if they refused to vaccinate?
Remember how millions of people left blue states in response to the far-left madness? Well, Democrats are now pretending that none of that ever happened, but they can’t hide the continuing consequences of their draconian policies.
The historic population shift that escalated during the pandemic era is still well underway, though the causes are now more economic than political. We recently covered New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s sad attempt to beg wealthy NY taxpayers to stop leaving her state. However, New York is only one of multiple blue regions being crushed by an ongoing wealth exodus.
New data from states like Massachusetts indicate that Democrat efforts to institute state level “wealth taxes” are driving out business owners and corporations, and these residents are taking billions in tax revenues with them.
Massachusetts was hit with loss of $4.2 billion in adjusted gross income in 2023, one of the largest totals in the country, after passing a tax on millionaires. The amount was an 8% year-over-year increase, according to the Internal Revenue Service. The state witnessed a net loss of over 41,000 residents in 2022-2023. Keep in mind, this as during the Biden open borders crisis, and over 50,000 migrants also flooded into MA in that same time period.
In other words, even with mass immigration, blue states still lost huge numbers of resident. And, they essentially replaced high earning and wealthy taxpayers with low earning and no-tax migrants.
Other states dealing with a net loss of residents and wealth include:
California, which has led the nation in net domestic out-migration for six consecutive years. In the period July 2024 -July 2025, the state lost approximately 229,000 residents domestically. Previous years saw losses of around 239,000–400,000+ annually. California also lost $11.9 billion in net AGI in 2023 alone.
New York recorded the second-highest domestic losses with 137,586 residents leaving (net) in 2024-2025. IRS data shows significant adjusted gross income outflows, including $9.9 billion lost in one year (2022–2023) and a decade-long net loss exceeding $111 billion.
Illinois suffered a net domestic loss of around 40,017 residents in 2024-2025 (down from higher figures in prior years, but still among the top losers). IL lost a net $6 billion in AGI from 2022 to 2023.
Washington State is on the progressive path the self destruction with multiple new taxes, including a “Millionaires Tax” passed this year which is expected to drive most corporations and moderately sized businesses out of the area. The new law requires a nearly 10% tax on any earners making over $1 million per year.
Other blue states like New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii also top the lists for out-migration of wealthy resident. And where is all this money going? Largely to red states with less taxes and less bureaucracy. The point being that, ever increasing taxation is not the solution to a successful state economy. Only states where people want to live are going to do well.
END
A GOOD READ…
The Barbell Economy: Why The Middle Is Vanishing
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 09:05 AM
Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,
There’s a pattern quietly reshaping daily life, work, and society itself. Economists now call it the “barbell economy.” Value, growth, and opportunity concentrate at the two extremes—ultra-cheap utility on one end, premium experience and status on the other—while the broad, reasonable middle thins out. Once you start noticing it, you can’t unsee it. And the data show it isn’t a fleeting trend.
Start with something as ordinary as dinner. Fast-food drive-throughs, delivery apps, and value menus deliver speed and rock-bottom prices with almost no human interaction. At the opposite pole, tasting menus and farm-to-table experiences turn meals into curated stories worth premium prices. The casual sit-down restaurant is struggling or closing—that reliable neighborhood spot that was neither rock-bottom cheap nor luxurious.
The same appears in travel. Airlines sell ultra-low fares for tighter seats but tack on fees for seat selection, bags, and boarding, while business- and first-class cabins keep expanding, with more space, better food, and priority service. Premium-cabin bookings on U.S. domestic flights have grown nearly three times faster than economy seats since 2020. Hotels follow suit: luxury and upper-upscale properties posted stronger revenue growth per available room (RevPAR) in early 2025 than midscale or economy tiers, where occupancy often hovers in the mid-50 percent range and room rates struggle to keep pace with inflation.
Even cars illustrate the point. The average new-vehicle transaction price hit roughly $49,353 in February 2026—up 3.4 percent from the prior year and near all-time highs. For many families, that means heavy debt, stretched budgets, or leaving the new-car market altogether. Some trade down to older or used vehicles; others finance their way into premium models. A reliable new car without major financial strain is becoming rare.
The pattern repeats across many sectors. In education, elite universities grow more expensive and selective, free online resources explode at the low end, and middle-tier institutions face rising costs alongside skepticism about value.
In the workplace, highly skilled, high-pay roles in tech, finance, and specialized fields expand at one pole; gig and service work grow at the other. Stable mid-skill, mid-income jobs have been under pressure for decades. Their share of employment fell from about 59 percent in 1983 to 45 percent by 2012, with high- and low-skill roles filling the gap—a trend that recent analyses tie directly to the barbell shift. Retail mirrors it: ultra-cheap, high-volume platforms on one side, luxury brands on the other, and many traditional mid-tier department stores and general retailers struggling to hold ground. Everywhere, it seems, the middle ground of reliability, reasonable quality, and fair pricing is becoming the hardest place to sustain.
Why the Middle Gets Squeezed
Some of the forces behind include several reinforcing dynamics. Technology drives costs down at the low end—through automation, digitization, and global scale—while amplifying differentiation at the high end, enabling personalized experiences, strong brands, and ecosystems that command premium prices. Globalization intensifies the pressure: mid-tier businesses now compete with both lower-cost producers abroad and globally scaled luxury players, forcing them to slash costs dramatically or move upmarket.
Markets themselves reward extremes. Massive scale wins on price; strong differentiation wins on margins. Being “solid and reliable” without either advantage leaves you exposed. Consumer psychology gravitates toward either “the cheapest thing that works” or “what feels worth it and represents me.” Mid-tier operators also face rising fixed costs—rent, labor, regulation, supply chains—without the efficiencies of giants or the pricing power of luxury brands. The math is getting tighter.
Why the Middle Still Matters
Historically, the middle wasn’t just a pricing tier. It was a stabilizing feature of society. A large middle class with stable work, enough income to build a life, and independence from both the state and the elite acted as an anchor. These people invested in communities, cared about long-term stability, participated in institutions, and generally worked within the system because they had a genuine stake in it.
When the middle thins, shared experiences shrink. Different groups consume, travel, learn, and even perceive reality differently. Social mobility feels less realistic. Trust in institutions erodes as more people feel the system no longer includes or needs them. Ancient to modern political thinkers have warned that societies dominated by extremes tend to be less stable.
What makes the pattern subtle—and hard to reverse—is that almost every individual decision makes sense. Companies cut costs or differentiate to survive. Consumers hunt for deals or splurge on what feels special. Governments open trade for growth. Investors seek returns. But cumulatively, they push supply and demand toward the extremes. It’s a classic case of local optima creating a suboptimal system-level outcome.
The Fork in the Road
If the middle continues to thin, and societies nevertheless wish to re-stabilize it, three broad paths are visible.
- One is passive stability through distribution—ideas such as universal basic income. It could cushion immediate hardship but risks weakening the historical link between contribution, purpose, and livelihood. Also, large-scale central planning has a poor track record of sustaining broad prosperity (e.g., socialism).
- A second path is a controlled middle class, common in centralized systems. People can still live comfortably, but their position depends more heavily on alignment with the state or institutions. This often limits the autonomy that made the traditional middle class a genuine stabilizer. We can see that in China today, under the CCP, where the middle class is not fulfilling its traditional role.
- The third—and most hopeful—path is actively rebuilding a productive middle. This means reindustrialization, stronger domestic supply chains, infrastructure investment, technical education, and new pathways that don’t require elite credentials. The goal is restoring roles in which a broad group of people create real economic value.
Lessons From History—and Today
The old debate of “more free market” versus “more state” often misses how some countries actually succeeded. South Korea in the 1950s was poor and war-torn. Under President Park Chung-hee, the government didn’t simply let markets run free or impose permanent control. It provided guided support—directing credit to key industries, investing heavily in infrastructure and education, and pushing exports—but tied that support to performance. Companies that failed to compete internationally lost backing. As industries matured and became globally competitive, the state gradually stepped back, allowing more market autonomy. Success came from smart sequencing: early coordination to build capacity, followed by increasing competition within a strengthening institutional framework.
We see initiatives of a similar breed today in the United States, where recent policies have aimed to reshore manufacturing, support strategic sectors such as semiconductors and energy, and rebuild domestic capacity.
These efforts represent attempts to reform a system that long optimized purely for efficiency.
Rebuilding—or thoughtfully reshaping—the middle will require understanding the forces at work and making deliberate choices about the kind of society we want the economy to support.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 1, 2026 Issue 7712 | Independent View of the News |
| Once upon a time we warned to be alert about April Fool’s Day. But in recent years, a lot of ridiculous occurrences have been reality. On Monday night, the US and Israel struck an enormous weapons facility in Isfahan. A mushroom cloud appeared after the initial strike. Was it a missile depot or nuke center? Trump posted a video clip of the ginormous explosion. https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/2038781791071588855 WSJ: Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz. Equity futures soared on Monday night when the above headline appeared. Is Trump once again issuing verbal intervention to halt the stock market’s downtrend? Of course! Manipulation to boost abysmal Q1 performance was manic on Tuesday thanks to DJT. Of course, Fangs and related trading sardines led the huge rally because those stocks are over-owned by The Street. ESMs traded in a tiny range, mostly negative, from their 18:00 ET opening on Monday night until they broke lower at 1900 ET. After falling to the daily low of 6353.25 at 20:23 ET, ESMs spiked higher after the above WSJ story appeared. ESMs eventually hit 6462.00 at 2250 ET. After a moderate retreat, ESMs then rebounded and settled into a 34-handle trading range until they broke higher after the 7 ET US repo market opening. It was time to get long for the NYSE opening and Q1 performance gaming. ESMs broke higher 8 minutes after the NYSE opening. After hitting 6497.25 at 9:59 ET, ESMs fell to 6447.00 at 10:55 ET. The illegal but regular manipulation to game Q1 performance then commenced in earnest, greatly abetted by this report: Iran has ‘necessary will’ to end war but seeking guarantees, Pezeshkian tells EU Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday his country had the “necessary will” to end the ongoing war with Israel and the United States but is seeking guarantees that the conflict would not be repeated. “We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression,” Pezeshkian said in a phone conversation with the president of the European Council, according to a statement from his office, reiterating a key demand of Tehran’s… https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/31/iran-has-necessary-will-to-end-war-but-seeking-guarantees-president-masoud-pezeshkian-says ESMs hit a daily high of 6583.25 at 15:49 ET. Money managers, traders, and hedge funds secured or salvaged billions of dollars in performance fees from the illegal manipulation. @realDonaldTrump: All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT @realDonaldTrump: The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the “Butcher of Iran,” who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!! @elerianm Defying expectations, US consumer confidence improved this month, with the composite index rising from 91.0 to 91.8 (beating the consensus forecast of 87.9). Interestingly, this measure tells two different stories: The current conditions component drove the entire upward surprise while the expectations component fell, and year-ahead anticipated inflation increased from 5.5% to 6.2%. https://x.com/elerianm/status/2039001324730073259 GOP Sen. Graham to Trump: ‘Wind down’ Iran war, ‘wind up’ efforts for peace deal (Perpetual war hawk changes stripes due to poll numbers in the toilet) https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5807742-trump-iran-war-peace-efforts/amp/ Positive aspects of previous session Stocks soared on verbal and manual manipulation to boost ugly Q1 performance. Fangs and related trading sardines soared. Gasoline and oil declined smartly. USMs closed +12/32. Negative aspects of previous session USMs should have rallied more; gasoline and oil should have declined more. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What happens if Iran surrenders? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 6487.82 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 6539.05; 6395.88 Q1 Top Sectors: Energy +37.24%, Materials +9.3%, Utilities (Nat Gas) +7.52%, Cons Staples +7.01% Q1 Worst Sectors: Financials -9.8%, Cons Discretionary -9.34%, Info Tech -9.25%, Comm Serv -7.1% Early Tuesday evening, Trump on Iran: “We’ll be leaving very soon…What happens to the straight, we’re not going to have anything to do with, because these countries… China will go up, and they’ll fuel up their beautiful ships, and they’ll leave, and they’ll take care of themselves. There’s no reason for us to do it… I would say that within 2 weeks…maybe 3.” https://x.com/RealAmVoice/status/2039105714740769215 Today – Traders will play for the start-of April rally. After the manic short covering and rabid manipulation on Tuesday, barring news, stocks should range trade for the session. ESMs are +18.00; NQMs are +107.00; USMs are -1/32; gas & oil are up modestly at 20:42 ET. Econ Data: March ADP Employment Change 40k; Feb Retail Sales 0.5% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.3%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; March S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 52.4; March ISM Mfg. 52.3, Prices Paid 74, New Orders 54.5; Employment 49; March Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.86m; St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 9:05 ET, Fed Gov Barr 910 ET; President plans to address the nation on Iran, Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6794; 100-day MA: 6812; 150-day MA: 6759; 200-day MA: 6639 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,262;100-day MA: 48,119; 150-day MA: 47,513; 200-day MA: 46,675 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope S&P 500 Index (6528.52 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6458.06 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6551.34 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6457.72 triggers a sell signal @EricLDaugh: Gov. Ron DeSantis is moving to get a radical leftist judge IMPEACHED after she RELEASED a known predator who went on to kill an innocent 5-year-old girl… DeSantis is petitioning the State Legislature to impeach Judge Tiffany Baker: “Until you start holding these judges ACCOUNTABLE, they are going to continue to find ways to benefit the criminal element!” “This was an outrage. This was such an easy call to make sure that this guy was put behind bars, and this judge refused to do it!” IMPEACH HER, and start impeaching nationwide. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2039026854108041265 @libsoftiktok: The Supreme Court just ruled 8-1 in FAVOR of a Christian counselor, stating that a Colorado law banning counselors from correcting children’s gender identity delusions was UNCONSTITUTIONAL. Ketanji Brown Jackson was the ONLY dissenting judge. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2038999551743258853 @JCNSeverino Tellingly, Justice Kagan issued a concurring opinion in which she called Colorado’s law “textbook” viewpoint discrimination. She also accused the lone dissenter, Justice Jackson—whose opinion ran over 50% longer than the majority opinion—of “reimagining…the well-settled distinction between viewpoint-based and other content-based speech restrictions.” @EWess92: Justice Jackson trains her fire on Justices Kagan and Sotomayor. In a footnote she basically accuses them of being dupes for the conservative majority. Kagan responds, basically accusing Jackson of not understanding longstanding law. https://x.com/EWess92/status/2038983436614996175 Stunning Chicago suburb (Naperville) named America’s best place to live 2025 (Cuz it’s very liberal) is overrun by HUNDREDS of feral teens https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15695539/Chicago-suburb-Naperville-best-America-teen-takeover-mob.html @Newsforce PHYSICISTS ARE TURNING TO FAITH AS DARK MATTER STILL MAKES NO SENSE – The Associated Press found some physicists studying dark matter are drawing on religion and spiritual frameworks. Dark matter is believed to make up 85 percent of the universe’s mass, and scientists still do not know what it is. Happy Passover! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Swalwell Demands FBI Not Release His Files As Epstein Hypocrisy Surfaces
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,
Embattled Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., who has long demanded that President Donald Trump release the Epstein files, now faces scrutiny as the FBI prepares to release documents tied to its investigation into his alleged ties to a Chinese intelligence operative.
The scrutiny comes after Swalwell demanded Monday that FBI Director Kash Patel refrain from declassifying the potentially damaging files, which could shed light on his relationship with Christine Fang, the suspected Chinese spy also known as “Fang Fang.”
On X, critics highlighted what they called blatant hypocrisy, pointing to Swalwell’s prior demands that Trump release the Epstein files.
One widely shared X post from July 2025 read, “Trump has the files. Why won’t HE release them,” in reference to the Epstein files.
On Sept. 25, Swalwell himself replied to a post from Patel, writing, “Blah blah blah. Where are the Epstein Files?”
On Oct. 7, Swalwell again pressed Patel, adding, “Where are the Epstein Files?”
Just 10 days later, Swalwell escalated further, branding House Speaker Mike Johnson the “pro-pedophile Speaker” and again demanding the Epstein files be released.
Swalwell conveyed his opposition in a cease-and-desist letter to Patel, urging that his own FBI files are not released.
“The congressman has never been accused of wrongdoing in that matter and your attempt to release the file is a transparent attempt to smear him and undermine his campaign for governor of California,” the letter said, as quoted by the leftist Washington Post.
It added, “Your actions threaten to expose you, others at the FBI, and the FBI itself to significant legal liability.”
The Post reported over the weekend that Patel had deployed agents to California to review the documents ahead of a potential public release.
The forthcoming release of the files could provide clarity on the FBI’s investigation into Swalwell’s early political career. He joined Congress in 2013 after serving three years on the Dublin City Council.
The probe centered on Fang’s alleged efforts to act as a Chinese intelligence operative by cultivating relationships with up-and-coming politicians.
Swalwell has not definitively denied having a sexual relationship with Fang. He purportedly cut off contact with her after being briefed by the FBI.
What Swalwell knew about Fang, and what he told the FBI, has largely remained speculative, but that could change if the files were released.
* * * Sink your fengs into these
GREG HUNTER….
TO ALL OUR JEWISH FRIENDS, A VERY HAPPY PASSOVER HOLIDAY WEEK
harveyorganblog.com 
