EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,749.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/08/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 04/10/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 9
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 134
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 4
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 40
323 H HSBC 9
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 19
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 12
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 102
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 35 12
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 6
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2
709 C BARCLAYS 45
905 C ADM 10
TOTAL: 223 223
MONTH TO DATE: 16,656
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2026: 223 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 22,300 OZ or 0.6936TONNES
total notices so far: 16,656 contracts for 1,665,600 OR 51.807 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 111 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 555,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1551 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.755 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 42 CONTRACTS OR 0.210 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 130,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES AT 7.925 MILLION OZ
NOW OUR APRIL 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 9.745 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 7.925 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR SMALL 72 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 7200 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 4400 OZ OR 0.2320 TONNESAND THEN WE ADD BY OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 22.3818///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES OF GOLD./
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7200 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 4 MONTHS JANUARY TO APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES MINUS 7200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2239 TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 23.822 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA STRONG 612 CONTRACTS OI TO 115,750 AND CLOSER TOTHE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 111,576 CONTRACTS MARCH 20.2026
EFP ISSUANCE 156 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 156 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 612 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 156 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 768 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.50
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.840 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $3.50
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 9 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.83 PTS OR 0.72%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 140.62 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 298.42 PTS OR 0.53%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8403
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8392 Oil UP TO 97.40 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97.78 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8403 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8392 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2522 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 357,399 CONTRACT OI , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET THIS WEEK AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE WITH THE BANKERS TAKING THE SHORT SIDE, SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD. THE SPECS HAVE NOW GONE MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE AGAIN WITH THE BANKERS BUYING UP ALL THEY COULD AND COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL IN GOLD. THE SHORT SPECS WERE MURDERLIZED WITH YESTERDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ANNOUNCEMENT OF A CEASEFIRE!.
WE THUS HAD A STROMG GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 4782 CONTRACTS (OR 14.87 TONNES) WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR 2260 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR FAR.
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO APRIL:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW APRIL COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4784 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ($88.85). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH APRIL/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3085 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK WITH MUCH FAILURE DURING LONDON LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (APRIL FIRST DAY NOTICE)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH WE HAVE 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7196 CONTRACTS OR 719,600 OZ/22.3818 TONNES.. AS DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE!!
APRIL: 0 SO FAR HAVE BEEN ISSUED
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
AND NOW APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 7,200 OZ (0.2239 TONNES) QUEUE JUMP. THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING APRIL,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $88.85)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //(OTHER SPECULATORS WENT THIS WEEK ON THE SHORT SIDE AND THEY WERE TORCHERED YESTERDAY!!). OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO APRIL:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.3818 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING: A VERY STRONG 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 7,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.0933 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $88.85
WE HAD A RECORS SETTING 17,927 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 4782 CONTRACTS OR 478,200 OZ OR 14.87 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL 9 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 2 a) HSBC 96,453.00000 OZ (3,000 kilobars) b) Loomis: 5304.915 oz (165 kilobars) total withdrawal: 101,757.915 oz or 3165 kilobars/3.165 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRY i) Into Brinks 299,055.033 oz total deposit: 299,055.033 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 223 CONTRACTS OR 22,300 OZ 0.6936 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 679 Contracts 67,900 OZ 2.111 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 16,656 notices 1,665,600 oz 51.807 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
i) Into Brinks 299,055.033 oz
total deposit: 299,055.033 oz
customer withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 2
a) HSBC 96,453.00000 OZ
(3,000 kilobars)
b) Loomis: 5304.915 oz
(165 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 101,757.915 oz
or 3165 kilobars/3.165 tonnes
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs
adjustments: / / 2
ADJUSTMENTS ://DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) HSBC: 34,447.566 oz
ADJUSTMENTS CUSTOMER TO DEALER
b) MANFRA: 2897.590 OZ
net loss of gold from dealer: 31,553.976 oz (0.9814 TONNES)
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI STANDS AT 902 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 98 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 170 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 72 CONTRACTS. THUS 7200 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER AND THIS EQUATES TO 0.2239 TONNES.
MAY LOST 267 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 3897
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY A STRONG 1120 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 267,199
We had 223 contracts filed for today representing 22,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 35 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 223 contract(s) of which 12 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,656) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (902 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 223 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,733,800 OZ OR (53.928 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,656 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (902 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (223 )x 100 oz) which equals 1,733,800 OZ OR 53.928 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in APRIL is 53.928 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL 53.928 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 240,591 good
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,890,215.791 oz 58.79 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,890,215.791 tonnes oz 58.79 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 30,613,228.560 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,012,810.855 or 498.066 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 14,600,417,716 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 14,122,595 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
439.282 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL9
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) out of CNT 250,159.600 oz total withdrawal: 250,159.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRIES i) Into CNT 39,530.930 oz total deposit 39,530.930 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 111 CONTRACT(S) ( 555,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 34 Contracts (0.170 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1551 contracts 7.755 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
DEPOSITS one entry
1 ENTRIES
1 ENTRIES
i) Into CNT 39,530.930 oz
total deposit 39,530.930 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
i) Out of CNT 250,159.600 oz
total withdrawal 250,159.600 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:
one adjustments dealer to customer:
a) CNT 188,742.910 oz
net oz leaving dealer: 188,742.910 oz
Wednesday volume: 80,955 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.840 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 325.122 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2026 OI: 145 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 21 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 5 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 26 CONTRACTS OR 130,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP. STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 7.925 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL
XXX
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4304 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 65,547 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 18 CONTRACTS UP TO 569 OI CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 111 or 555,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY; 50,397 poor
AND NOW APRIL. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1551 X5,000 oz = 7.755 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (145) AND the number of notices served upon today (111)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2026 contract month: (1551 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (145) minus number of notices served upon today (111 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 7.925 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 7.925 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STRONG FOR A GENERALLY LOUSY DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 76.840 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 145.541/325.122million: 44.76%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1052.990 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.938 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
XXX
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
JESSE COLUMBO..
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 267
end.
5. COMMODITY REPORT//..
ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 9/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.83 PTS OR 0.72%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 140.62 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 298.42 PTS OR 0.53%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.27%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8403
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8392 Oil UP TO 97.40 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97.78 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8403 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8392 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8403
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8393
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 140.62 PTS OR 0.54%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 298.42 PTS OR 0.53%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 97.40
BRENT; 97.78
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.80/// EURO RISES TO 1.1675 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.385 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.00… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.611 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8403( DOWN AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8393
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9846 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.775// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.444%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.734%
3j Gold at $4726.00 //Silver at: 73.92 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 74 100 roubles/77.81
3m oil (WTI) into the 97 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.56 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.385% UP 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.611 UP 1 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7911 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9237
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.282 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.878 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.790 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.59 UP 6 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7790 UP 7 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.417 UP 6 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.464 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.090 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Stock Futures Slide As Doubts Over Ceasefire Send Oil Higher
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 08:18 AM
Stocks resumed their drop and oil erased about a third of its Wednesday drop as traders watched the fragile US-Iran ceasefire shatter by the hour, with both sides accusing the other of breaches while the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures fell 0.4% after Bloomberg strategists said a best-case scenario has already been priced in; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mostly lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7%. Emerging-market stocks slid almost 1%. The dollar ticked higher even as 10Y US YST yields dropped about 1bp; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped back to $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon +0.8%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta Platforms +1%, Microsoft -0.1%, -0.3%)
- Applied Digital (APLD) falls 1% after the data center operator’s third-quarter gross margins missed the average analyst estimate.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 6% after the cloud-computing provider reported an expanded long-term agreement with Meta to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for ~$21 billion.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 2% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight, citing demand for optical products.
- Instacart (CART) climbs 2% as Raymond James upgrades to outperform, calling the grocery segment an under-penetrated e-commerce market.
- Simply Good Foods (SMPL) falls 16% after the packaged-food firm forecast year net sales will be down as much as 10%.
- STAAR Surgical (STAA) rises 23% after the health-care supplies firm said it expects net sales for the first quarter to exceed $90 million, up from $42.6 million in the year ago period. The estimate surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
- Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 1.6% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy, citing “multiple tailwinds” that should support the semiconductor firm’s outlook.
- Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares rise 11% after the retail-focused real estate investment trust company entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $19 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at about $1.7 billion.
In AI, Anthropic employees sold some equity to investors, wrapping up a secondary share sale that started earlier this year. Meta shares are up in premarket trading, with analysts generally positive on the AI model it showed on Wednesday. PIMCO is said to be looking to sell a portion of the $14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle data center in Michigan. In other corporate news, the WSJ reported that Disney is preparing to make sizable layoffs in one of the first significant moves under its new CEO. Seven & i Holdings will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year.
Markets have given up some of the big moves seen Wednesday when optimism around the deal for a two-week pause in fighting spurred a relief rally. Continued fighting in the Middle East, punctuated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire deal. Iran and the US-Israeli side appeared to disagree over whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Yet despite the escalating rhetoric, the ceasefire was largely holding on Thursday, with a decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.
“There’s a fair amount of skepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”
Overnight, Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran; the first round of direct negotiations is scheduled for Saturday morning in Islamabad. Meanwhile, Goldman predicted that Brent is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month.
Much of Wednesday’s move was driven by short-covering and a return to normal positioning: According to Goldman’s trading desk, hedge funds rushed to close out bets against US stocks at a pace not seen since March 2020. The ceasefire, along with upcoming earnings driving up the potential for idiosyncratic moves across equities, may mean “downward pressure on implied correlations,” according to Citi option strategists.
Even if weekend talks lead to a more permanent peace, the effects of the war will rumble on. Earnings expectations will need to be tempered because of the inflationary fallout from the war, according to BlackRock’s Helen Jewell. And in central banks, a former executive director at the Bank of Japan said the BOJ is likely to increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation. Fed policymakers will get the latest reading of their preferred inflation indicator, core PCE, later, ahead of CPI data on Friday. The latter, covering March, is likely to be more interesting as it will begin to reflect the Middle East conflict.
In politics, the Justice Department’s top antitrust litigator and three senior trial attorneys are leaving the agency, according to people familiar. The US is said to consider lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy.
Turning to the start of earnings season next week, expectations will need to be tempered due to the inflationary fallout from the war, BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell said. “If you look at earnings forecasts at the moment for the year, they’re still well into double digits — 15, 16, 17, 18%,” said Jewell, who is international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at the world’s largest asset manager. “There’s a lot of headroom for the earnings to come down a little bit.”
On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures — PCE — price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.
Europe’s stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7% after its best day since March 2022 on Wednesday. US equity futures also drop. Oil stocks advanced along with Brent crude. Many of yesterday’s laggards in the oil sector are today’s biggest gainers, including Var Energi, Equinor, BP and TotalEnergies. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- ITM Power shares climb as much as 17%, the most in 10 months, after the UK government pledged to invest around £87 million in the clean energy company to drive a build out of its hydrogen technology manufacturing facility
- Rexel shares climb as much as 4.1% after analysts at Jefferies raise the French electrical supplies firm to buy from hold, saying it is well positioned to outpace its guidance thanks to higher prices and growth drivers
- Technip Energies shares rise as much as 4.1% to the highest level since September after the engineering firm was awarded a contract to improve the Long Son Petrochemicals complex in Vietnam
- Vallourec rises as much as 5.2% after announcing a five-year supply agreement with Fervo Energy worth up to $800 million, which CIC Markets says “demonstrates the effectiveness” of the firm’s New Energies segment strategy
- AG Barr rises as much as 4.7% after Bank of America initiates coverage of the UK soft drinks manufacturer with a buy rating and a street-high 850p price target. BofA cites growth potential for IRN-BRU
- DCC shares rise as much as 4.1% after analysts at BNP Paribas raise their rating to outperform from neutral on the energy seller’s current valuation and the positive impact of energy prices
- Melia Hotels shares rise as much as 3.9%, to the highest level since Sept. 2018, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the Spanish hotel operator to hold from reduce
- Abivax shares rise as much as 3.8% after Oddo BHF lifted its price target on the French biotech company, saying Crohn’s disease could represent a bigger commercial opportunity than ulcerative colitis
- Alstom falls 7.2%, the most in ten months, after the French trainmaker flags currency headwinds in an earnings preview. JPMorgan (overweight) lowers estimates on FX headwinds
- Man Group shares trade as much as 7.7% below their last closing price, only partly due to trading without rights to the next dividend. Deutsche Bank analysts cut their earnings estimates and price target ahead of 1Q results
- Netcompany shares fall as much as 6.5%, the most in two months, after ABG Sundal Collier cut its recommendation on the Danish IT consultancy to hold from buy, seeing a “less compelling” risk/reward after a strong run for the shares
- Grieg Seafood falls as much as 7.9%, the most since last May, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company’s preliminary first-quarter earnings disappointed, leading DNB Carnegie to cut 2026 EPS estimates by 12%
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated as oil prices rose again and sporadic fighting in the Middle East cast doubts over the implementation of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most national benchmarks in the region traded lower, with the Kospi being the biggest loser followed by India’s Nifty 50. Asia’s stock benchmark jumped 5% in the previous session, the most in about a year, as global risk assets rallied on optimism over the ceasefire deal. It is up more than 8% so far in 2026.
“Headline risk remains elevated,” according to Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com. “Markets aren’t necessarily out of the woods yet. There are several variables that could upend market sentiment.”
In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower, down 1bp to 4.29% and slightly richer across the curve after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. US yields are as much as 1.5bp lower led by intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s curve by around 1bp. 10-year is down about 1bp near 4.28% with European counterparts 3bp-6bp higher on the day. European yields are broadly higher with oil prices as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked: UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. US session includes PCE price gauges for February, several other US economic indicators and 30-year bond auction. Treasury’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening has WI yield near 4.88%, about 1bp higher than result of last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp; Wednesday’s 10-year reopening tailed by 0.2bp after rallying into the bid deadline.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Gold edges up while Bitcoin is flat.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 5% near session highs, erasing about a third of Wednesday’s 16.4% drop; Brent crude futures rise 4% to above $98 after a more than 13% plunge to under $95 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were approaching the Strait, potentially putting them on track to become the first such vessels to cross since the ceasefire was announced. European natural gas futures climb 2%.
US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%, DAX -1.2%, CAC 40 -0.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.29%
- VIX +0.4 points at 21.39
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1202.1, euro +0.1% at $1.1678
- WTI crude +3.1% at $97.38/barrel
Top Overnight News
- JD Vance will head the U.S. negotiating team for the peace talks with Iran on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday. Axios
- Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of “buffer zones” in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war. RTRS
- Vance said Wednesday Israel has proposed to restrain itself when it comes to strikes in Lebanon as long as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are taking place. Axios
- The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials. The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. WSJ
- EU will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US and Iran agreeing a two-week ceasefire, the bloc’s top economic official has warned. FT
- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s finance conditions remain accommodative, with the level of real rates clearly below zero. BBG
- The US is said to be considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s economy. BBG
- Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on the asset class. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. The funds tracked by the FT, which collectively manage investment portfolios worth about $300bn, have honored just over half of the redemption requests they received. Many investors have been forced to wait until a redemption window opens up later this quarter to exit. FT
- The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil. Semafor
- World Bank forecasts global growth for 2027 at 2.4%, while it said investment remains subdued as firms await clearer signals on the external environment and domestic policy, which it called a binding constraint on growth.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday’s ceasefire-fuelled extremes and as the widespread euphoria gradually waned amid the wide gaps between each side’s peace proposals. Furthermore, several strikes had continued in the 24 hours after the announcement, and the inclusion of Lebanon is seen as a key point of contention, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, although a senior Iranian official stated that Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of their planned talks. ASX 200 traded little changed amid a lack of data or drivers and with resilience in energy, defensives and financials offsetting the firm losses in the tech sector. Nikkei 225 pulled back after the prior day’s stellar performance, with the index returning to beneath the 56,000 level amid very few fresh catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data to sustain the previous momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid concerns regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, and with weakness in Chinese tech and property stocks, while there were prior reports that the US FCC will vote on a measure that would ban Chinese labs from testing US electronics.
Top Asian News
- South Korea’s Finance Minister comments that financial and FX market volatility has eased a bit.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have pulled back from Wednesday’s ceasefire-related surge after cracks appeared in the agreement. US President Trump announced that the military will remain in and around Iran until a real agreement is fully complied with. Furthermore, the IRGC announced a new Hormuz corridor, effectively raising risks of disruption and bottlenecks. The IBEX 35 outperforms, with the index trading near flat. On the other hand, the DAX 40 is the underperformer. European sectors echo the above bias, with the majority in the red. Energy and Chemicals are amongst the sectors in the green, highlighting its defensive characteristics, while Consumer Products and Services and Technology sit at the bottom of the pile.
Top European News
- Italian PM Meloni said ruling out government reshuffle, not planning to resign; if the middle east crisis were to flare up again, Europe should consider temporary suspension of the stability and growth pact.
- EU’s Dombrovskis said the bloc will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US-Iran ceasefire, while European Commission is preparing to cut growth forecasts, according to FT.
FX
- FX Markets are paring some of Wednesday’s optimism with crude gaining and general risk-off elsewhere as markets weigh Iran’s claims of ceasefire breaches and subsequent concerns over Hormuz following reports from state media.
- DXY cautiously chugged higher throughout the European morning, supported by the key 99.00 mark. Overnight, FOMC Minutes were viewed as hawkish, with it stating many members said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises. Taking a look at rate expectations, markets moved to price just 7bps of easing by year-end compared to 15bps pre-minutes.
- Kiwi continues to perform well, amid hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman, she said inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term, and they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up. This marks the second day of gains against the greenback, with NZD the sole currency that outperforms a mildly stronger USD. In terms of market pricing, 75bps of easing is expected by year-end, an increase of 15bps since last week.
- JPY is the worst performer in the G10, as energy prices weigh on the net importer nation. The pair marked a session low of 158.45 and sits on a 159 handle at the time of writing. Elsewhere, EUR/GBP trades a touch above the 0.87 mark. In a note this morning, ING suggests rate differentials will help the cross with EUR; rate expectations are likely to prove sticky and BoE dovish pricing potentially coming “through more smoothly” should energy prices continue to decline.
Central Banks
- RBNZ Governor Bremen said more risk on inflation to the upside and inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term. said:. Previous rate cuts are still providing some stimulus to the economy, and a swift resolution to the conflict is expected to yield stronger growth this year. RBNZ to ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said short and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative, adds accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capex.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are trading flat to lower, as benchmarks pull back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, and as traders begin to find holes within the current ceasefire agreement. This comes after Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. Another interesting point is that Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks. (Full details on the Newsquawk headline feed). This, alongside continued strikes on both Lebanon and Iran, has led to a rebound in the energy complex, once again renewing inflationary concerns.
- USTs are currently flat, and mildly outperforming vs peers – currently trading within a 111-04+ to 111-10 range, and have entirely reversed the initial ceasefire-related optimism. Much of the action facilitated by the geopolitical factors mentioned above, but the complex is also weighed on by hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes and heading into a 30yr auction later today. On the data front, markets will await weekly claims, February’s PCE data (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.3%) and core PCE (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.4%); final Q4 GDP stats. From a yield perspective, the 2yr has rebounded back towards 3.785% (vs Wednesday’s trough at 3.713%).
- Bunds are in the red and down by around 50 ticks at this stage, and holding towards the bottom end of a 125.67 to 126.10 range. German paper did dip a tick below the high from 7th April, with market participants highlighting 125.53 as a potential area for intraday longs to be exited. Bunds are moving at the whim of energy prices this morning, but there have been some domestic updates. An interesting comment via Italy’s PM Meloni got some attention, after she suggested that the EU should consider a temporary suspension of budget deficit rules if the Iran war persists. No move in EGBs at the time, but traders will remain cognizant of any fiscal related concerns, should a suspension be enacted. From a data perspective, Industrial Production printed at -0.3% (exp. +0.9%), highlighting the turbulent recovery of Germany – even before the Iran war started.
- Gilts are underperforming vs peers, after leading the fixed complex on Wednesday. As above, moving at the whim of energy prices, with UK-specific newsflow light. UK 2yr has rebounded back towards 4.237% (vs trough of 4.044% on Wednesday). UK paper currently trades within an 89.10 to 89.61 range; further pressure could see a breach below the 89.00 mark, and then the high from 7th April at 88.88.
- UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.507% (prev. 4.075%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
- Spain sold EUR 5.778bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.676bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
- Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.58x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 1.826% (prev. 1.633%).
- Unicredit (UCG IM) to sell 6-year EUR-denominated noted, guidance seen +125bps to MS.
- Lloyds (LLOY LN) to sell 10-year GBP-denominated noted, guidance seen at +170bps to UK Treasuries.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to base JGB issuance plans on market demand, when asked about extending duration of government debt.
Commodities
- Optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire faded as both sides signalled breaches and diverging terms, with Trump warning of military escalation if compliance fails and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying multiple clauses of Tehran’s plan have already been violated. Lebanon has emerged as the key fault line—while the US and Israel insist it sits outside the agreement, Iran and its allies treat it as integral, raising the risk of collapse as Israeli strikes and Hezbollah activity continue. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds further fragility, as Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks (Full Analysis available on the Newsquawk headline feed).
- Crude rebounded after Wednesday’s biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent Jun’26 back above USD 97/bbl (after Wednesday’s 13% slump), as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon raised concerns over the durability of the Middle East truce. WTI May’26 trades towards the top of a USD 96.25-98.38/bbl range and Brent Jun’26 towards the upper end of a USD 96.30-98.53/bbl parameter. Mizuho expects crude to remain near USD 90/bbl through Q2 before returning to pre-conflict levels, while CBA sees upside risks while the Strait remains largely closed and physical undersupply linked to the Iran war supports prices.
- Spot gold holds above USD 4,700/oz after rising 1.5% over the prior two sessions, as traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution against sporadic fighting that threatened the ceasefire. However, some flagged a technical correction after the sharp rise in front-month Comex futures. The metal trades within a narrow USD 4,699-4,733/oz range at the time of writing, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,671.57/oz. Commerzbank said gold had been supported by lower oil prices, easing inflation risks and pulling down rate expectations and bond yields, though the outlook still depends on whether a lasting US-Iran settlement emerges.
- Copper futures pulled back overnight and remain weak in the European session as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 12,587.00- 12,678.70/oz.
- Brazil court suspends oil export tax for Shell (SHEL LN), Equinor (EQNR), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Repsol (REP SM).
- OECD has urged governments to unwind expensive fuel duty cuts, according to the FT.
- Japan considers releasing an additional 20 days of oil reserves, according to Kyodo.
- US mulls lifting Venezuela’s central bank sanctions with the aim of increasing oil output, according to sources.
- Russia is offering sanctioned LNG to Asia via intermediaries at a 40% discount.
- Goldman Sachs said Brent would average above USD 100/bbl through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month. Adds that the situation remains fluid after the start of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and that risks to its oil price forecast are still skewed to the upside.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump posted “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel….will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”.
- US President Trump posted “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”.
- Trump admin is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, WSJ reported citing admin officials. The proposal would involve moving US troops out of NATO member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the US military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the US from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress. Plans could also include closure of at least 1 US base in a European country, possible Spain or Germany.
- NATO Secretary-General Rutte pointed out to US President Trump that a large majority of European nations have been helpful.
- US officials say they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and that President Trump will not offer major concessions to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, adds Iran’s insistence on controlling straight reformers could lead to a resumption of fighting.
- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan, Al Jazeera reported.
- Iran Ambassador to Pakistan said the Iranian delegation is to arrive on Thursday night in Islamabad for “serious talks”, based on the 10 points proposed by Iran.
- IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines, according to ISNA.
- IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
- Iranian Parliament’s Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said ‘”Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you…so wait for it”.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran reportedly discussed de-escalation in a call, according to SPA.
- Pakistani Foreign Ministry senior source suggests US has walked back on including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, Al Arabiya reported.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu says will continue to strike Hezbollah with force, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon.
- Israel’s Ministry of Energy directs the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after it halted due to the war, according to Israel’s Channel 12.
- Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, according to Fars News Agency, while it fires rockets at Israel citing ceasefire breaches.
- Missile fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
- Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
- French President Macron spoke with Iran’s President Pezeshkian and US President Trump, and told both that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best possible one.
- Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight according to UKR media.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.43%
- 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.38%
- 8:30 am: United States Feb PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.83%
- 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3%, prior 3.06%
- 8:30 am: United States Apr 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 202k
- 8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Continuing Claims, est. 1828k, prior 1841k
- 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
- 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Personal Consumption, est. 2%, prior 2%
- 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
- 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
- 10:00 am: United States Feb F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.5%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we go to press this morning, oil prices are creeping up again as several questions remain about the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. A few factors have driven that, but it’s pushed Brent crude oil (+2.34%) back up to $96.97/bbl, and it’s also taken the momentum out of the market rally overnight. Indeed, Asian equities are down across the board after yesterday’s surge, whilst US and European equity futures have also stumbled. So the Nikkei (-0.75%), the KOSPI (-1.61%), the CSI 300 (-0.64%) and the Hang Seng (-0.36%) have all fallen back this morning, and S&P 500 futures (-0.21%) are also pointing towards losses after a run of 6 consecutive gains.
Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated. Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.
In the meantime, President Trump also posted overnight that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He also said that if it weren’t complied with, then the military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”. He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.
Nevertheless, compared to 24 hours ago, the market stress has eased considerably, as the ceasefire news and hopes for a de-escalation pathway have created a lot more optimism. Moreover, there are still signs of progress, with White House Press Secretary Leavitt saying that Vice President JD Vance would lead a delegation to Islamabad, with a first round of talks scheduled for Saturday morning.
So despite the overnight newsflow, the net result is that fears have eased considerably about a stagflationary shock, with huge gains for bonds and equities as a result. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices saw a sharp decline of -13.29% yesterday, taking them to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl. And in turn, there was an incredibly strong performance, particularly in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) posted its best performance since 2022, whilst 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) saw their biggest decline since 2023. Similarly in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) was also back within 3% of its record high, whilst US HY spreads (-17bps) fell beneath their pre-strike levels in late-February. So even with all the volatility of recent weeks it was another day of historic moves, and the overnight move for Brent crude this morning (+2.34%) still leaves us well beneath the pre-ceasefire oil price of around $110/bbl.
The ceasefire itself was the main driver of those moves, but they got further support from the positive tone of US officials yesterday. For example, President Trump said the US would “work closely with Iran”, and that they were discussing tariff and sanctions relief, though he also said in a subsequent post that countries supplying military weapons to Iran would face a US tariff of 50%. And later on, Vice President Vance said that “we’re on the right track” in negotiations.
So overall, even with the question marks around a ceasefire, the fact one had been agreed led to a huge wave of optimism, with investors feeling much clearer about the path to a de-escalation. Most directly, the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen led to a big decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-13.29%) down to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl, whilst WTI (-16.41%) fell to $94.41/bbl. Meanwhile, we saw a big decline in European natural gas, with front-month TTF futures (-14.92%) falling to €45.30/MWh, their lowest in over a month, which again eased fears about the scale of any European inflation shock. However, with persisting restrictions on Hormuz shipping, the declines were more modest further out the oil curve, with the 6-month Brent future (-2.33%) closing at $81.19/bbl, still above its levels late last week.
That backdrop of lower energy prices meant that inflation fears eased dramatically, which in tun led to a dovish repricing of central banks, especially in Europe. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by -12.9bps to 3.13%, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap fell by a huge -38bps to 3.11%. In turn, that saw investors price out the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, with the probability of an ECB hike this month down from 68% before the ceasefire announcement to 32% by yesterday’s close, and a further decline to 29% this morning.
All that meant yields saw dramatic declines in Europe. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) were back down to 2.94%, marking their biggest daily decline since April 2023. At the front end, the 2yr German yield (-22.4bps) saw its biggest decline since March 2023, the week of Credit Suisse’s collapse, so it was another day of historic declines. And it a similar story across the continent, with 10yr OATs (-20.1bps), BTPs (-26.1bps) and gilts (-19.3bps) all posting their biggest declines since 2023 as well.
US Treasuries saw more muted moves, given yields had already fallen late in Tuesday’s session and oil prices were edging higher later in the US session yesterday. So both 2yr yields (-0.1bps at 3.79%) and 10yr yields (-0.2bps at 4.29%) were little changed by the close, having been 6-8bps lower on the day early on. We also got the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, which showed the uncertainty on how officials should respond to the war’s impact. It said that “most participants” were concerned that “a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts”. But it also said that “Many participants pointing to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases”.
For equities, there were also dramatic moves yesterday, as the oil price slump provided a huge lift on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, the rally was the biggest in several years, with the DAX (+5.06%) and the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) seeing their biggest gains since March 2022. Indeed, the latest gains left the STOXX 600 just over 3% beneath its record high just before the strikes began. Then in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) advanced by a slightly smaller amount, but it was still a 6th consecutive advance for the index, with the VIX index of volatility (-4.74pts) down to its lowest since the strikes began, at 21.04pts. However, the main exception to those equity gains came from the energy sector, with the S&P 500’s energy component down -3.66%.
Emerging market assets were another beneficiary amid the easing energy fears, with the MSCI EM equity index (+5.49%) posting its biggest rise since the early Covid volatility in March 2020. By contrast, the dollar index (-0.73%) fell for a third consecutive session for the first time since the strikes began.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US PCE inflation for February, the weekly initial jobless claims, the third estimate of Q4 GDP, and German industrial production for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen.
1 b) European opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
Brent +3%, bourses primed for a flat open as markets weigh potential ceasefire breaches – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 02:13 AM
- US President Trump threatened massive military escalation if Iran deal terms are not met, vowed no nuclear weapons, and they are to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.
- IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
- FOMC Minutes stated that many said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises.
- APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday’s ceasefire-fuelled extremes; European equity futures indicate a marginally lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/04), PCE Final (Feb), GDP Final (Q4), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBP Policy Announcement, Banxico Minutes. Comments from SNB’s Schlegel. Supply from Spain, UK & US.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump posted “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!”
- US President Trump posted “The Failing New York Times and Fake News CNN each reported a totally FAKE TEN POINT PLAN on the Iran negotiations which was meant to discredit the people involved in the peace process. All ten points were a made up HOAX”.
- US President Trump said numerous agreements, lists and letters are being sent out by people who have nothing to do with US/Iran negotiations, while he added there is only one group of points acceptable to the US, will be discussing them behind closed doors during negotiations, and these are the points that are the basis on which they agreed to a ceasefire. It is something that is reasonable and can easily be dispensed with.
- US VP Vance said Iranians are promising to open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just did not, while Israelis have offered to check themselves in Lebanon. It was also reported that VP Vance said there are at least three 10-point peace plans floating around, and only one represents the negotiating position of the US government.
- White House Press Secretary Leavitt said President Trump is dispatching a team led by VP Vance for talks to Pakistan, while the US and Iran will hold talks in Pakistan on Saturday. Vance and Witkoff will go to Islamabad this weekend for talks with Iran. Leavitt also said the two-week ceasefire is a victory for the US, and stated that the US has achieved and exceeded core military objectives, and Iran’s ability to build missiles has been set back by years.
- US senior official said the White House is not currently concerned that the situation in Lebanon would cause the ceasefire with Iran to collapse, while Trump and Netanyahu agreed during a call pre-ceasefire that fighting could continue in Lebanon.
- US and Iran aren’t starting talks on the same page, and it is still unclear whether negotiations set to start Saturday, led by VP Vance, will be based on the US 15-point plan or Iran’s 10-point plan, according to WSJ.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel has made achievements that once seemed imaginary and they are prepared to return to fighting at any moment.
- Israeli Home Front Command said it is easing its wartime guidelines in most parts of the country as the ceasefire with Iran appears to hold.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s PM a ceasefire in Lebanon is an essential condition in the framework of the 10-point agreement with the US.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US must choose either a ceasefire or continued war via Israel, but cannot have both, while he added the ball is in the US court and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments. Iran’s Foreign Minister held a phone call with his Saudi Arabian counterpart and discussed bilateral relations and regional developments.
- Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations are unreasonable, while the clauses violated were non-compliance on a ceasefire in Lebanon, entry of an intruding drone into Iranian airspace, and denial of Iran’s right to enrichment.
- Iran Parliament Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said “Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you…so wait for it”.
- Iranian senior official told Al Jazeera they will punish Israel for the crime it committed in Lebanon and for violating the ceasefire terms, while an informed source told Tasnim that Iran is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement if Israel continues to attack Lebanon.
- Israeli airstrikes were reported on settlements in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
- IRGC Aerospace Force commander said Iran is preparing a response to today’s regime attack on Lebanon, and a heavy response.
- Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, while it fired rockets at Israel and cited ceasefire breaches.
- UN said the attack on Lebanon is a threat to the ceasefire between Iran and the US. It was separately reported that more than 180 people were killed after Israel conducted strikes in central Beirut on Wednesday.
- Iran said its missile/drone attacks on Israel and oil facilities in UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia after the ceasefire was announced, were in retaliation for US/Israeli attacks, although a US defence official claimed the strike on an Iranian refinery wasn’t the US or Israel.
- There was evidence of UAE airstrikes on at least two locations in Iran after the temporary ceasefire, according to Fars News, while several attacks have been reported in different parts of Iran.
- UAE said Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities must be addressed and called for a “sustained approach” to address Iran’s full range of threats.
- French President Macron spoke with Iran’s President Pezeshkian and US President Trump, while he told both that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best possible one. Furthermore, Macron said he condemns in the strongest possible terms the Israeli raids on Lebanon.
- IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
- Iran’s ports and maritime organisation designated alternative safe routes through the Strait of Hormuz due to the possibility of mines in parts of the strait, according to SNN. It was also reported that the IRGC Navy announced alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines, according to ISNA.
- Iranian Parliament Economic Commission Spokesman Memkan said it is necessary to redefine and strengthen Iran’s strategic sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz with the approach of economic diplomacy, and it is necessary to calculate the optimal cost of services in the Strait of Hormuz according to international conventions.
- Greek PM Mitsotakis warned that Iran’s plan to charge ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely unacceptable,” arguing it risks setting a dangerous precedent that could undermine global trade, according to Fox News
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks surged and oil prices tumbled after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, alongside Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate supply concerns. The sharp decline in crude drove a broad cross-asset reaction, with equities rallying, the Treasury curve steepening, and front-end yields falling as inflation expectations eased and Fed rate hike bets pulled back.
- However, uncertainty around the durability of the agreement remained high. Reports of continued attacks in Iran and Lebanon, alongside disputes over the terms of the ceasefire, raised doubts about its effectiveness. Iranian officials claimed multiple breaches of the agreement, while the US and Israel disputed these claims, and tanker disruptions briefly re-emerged after Iran reportedly restricted traffic through Hormuz again. Despite this, markets largely held onto the risk-on tone, albeit off the extremes.
- SPX +2.52% at 6,783, NDX +2.90% at 24,903, DJI +2.85% at 47,911, RUT +3.05% at 2,623.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
FOMC MINUTES
- FOMC Minutes stated that almost all supported keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and most said it was too early to judge how Middle East developments would affect the US economy and policy, while many judged rate cuts would likely become appropriate over time if inflation declined as expected. Minutes stated that some saw a strong case for two-sided forward guidance, including possible rate rises if inflation stayed above target. Furthermore, most said a prolonged Middle East conflict could weaken labour markets enough to warrant additional rate cuts, and many said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said underlying US economic fundamentals are in a good place, while consumers are still spending and businesses are still investing. Daly also stated that the labour market is ‘settling at a good place’ and longer-term inflation expectations are anchored.
- Chris Phelan, an adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, is the front-runner to be tapped as President Trump’s new chief economist, according to Politico citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday’s ceasefire-fuelled extremes and as the widespread euphoria gradually waned amid the wide gaps between each side’s peace proposals. Furthermore, several strikes had continued in the 24 hours after the announcement, and the inclusion of Lebanon is seen as a key point of contention, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, although a senior Iranian official stated that Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of their planned talks.
- ASX 200 traded little changed amid a lack of data or drivers and with resilience in energy, defensives and financials offsetting the firm losses in the tech sector.
- Nikkei 225 pulled back after the prior day’s stellar performance, with the index returning to beneath the 56,000 level amid very few fresh catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data to sustain the previous momentum.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid concerns regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, and with weakness in Chinese tech and property stocks, while there were prior reports that the US FCC will vote on a measure that would ban Chinese labs from testing US electronics.
- US equity futures marginally weakened in sideways trade amid ceasefire uncertainty.
- European equity futures indicate a marginally lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 5.0% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY got some slight reprieve after suffering yesterday as the US-Iran ceasefire dominated trading, although details of the agreement appeared inconsistent between the two sides, with Lebanon a key contention point, while Iran said the US and Israel had already broken the ceasefire after Lebanon was hit. Attention for the US was also on the FOMC minutes, which validated the hawkish hold at the March meeting as the key message was that officials were not yet ready to react mechanically to the oil shock from the US-Iran war, as most judged it too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the economy and policy, while the vast majority said progress back to 2% could now be slower and the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target had increased.
- EUR/USD traded little changed after returning from a brief foray into 1.1700 territory, with the single currency contained overnight in the absence of fresh catalysts from the bloc.
- GBP/USD struggled for direction with price action stuck near the 1.3400 focal point amid a quiet calendar and with little reaction seen to the deterioration in UK RICS House Price Balance, which fell to its lowest in more than 2 years.
- USD/JPY eked mild gains and approached just shy of the 159.00 handle as the dollar regained composure and oil nursed some losses.
- Antipodeans were rangebound with mild outperformance in NZD/USD as RBNZ Governor Breman kept up the hawkish tone from the recent meeting, stating that inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term and that they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8649 vs exp. 6.8315 (Prev. 6.8680).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were lacklustre after giving back all of the ceasefire-related spoils as strikes continued in the 24 hours after the announcement, and with negotiators facing a tough task of bridging the gaps between the US and Iran peace plans during talks later in the week. Furthermore, demand was also not helped by looming supply and after the FOMC Minutes broadly validated the hawkish hold at the March meeting.
- Bund futures pulled back following the prior day’s surge and returned to beneath the 126.00 level, while participants look ahead to German Trade and Industrial Production data.
- 10yr JGB futures fully retraced the initial ceasefire-driven advances and retreated to near the 130.00 level amid a lack of tier-1 data overnight and few fresh catalysts, although prices are off worst levels with a mild rebound seen despite a softer 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures nursed some of the prior day’s hefty losses after suffering double-digit declines following the announcement of the US-Iran ceasefire. However, the details of an agreement remain unclear, with no firm consensus between the sides and with Lebanon a key contention point, while Iran has accused its counterparts of breaching the agreement, with Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stating that three clauses of the 10-point plan have already been violated, making a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations unreasonable.
- US crude exports are projected to hit a record high in April as Asian customers hunt for supplies as an alternative to Middle Eastern oil, according to FT.
- US mulls lifting Venezuela’s central bank sanctions with the aim of increasing oil output.
- US Energy Secretary Wright warned that California’s energy crisis under Gov. Newsom could threaten national security, according to Fox Business.
- Japan considers releasing an additional 20 days of oil reserves, according to Kyodo.
- Libya’s NOC and Eni North Africa announced a gas discovery west of Libya.
- Brazilian court suspended oil export tax for Shell (SHEL LN), Equinor (EQNR), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Repsol (REP SM).
- Spot gold price action is choppy after the precious metal gradually faded all of its ceasefire spoils and returned to a near-term support level around USD 4,700/oz.
- Copper futures pulled back overnight as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin marginally softened with price action choppy on both sides of the USD 71,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBNZ Governor Bremen said there is more risk on inflation to the upside and inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term, while she stated that previous rate cuts are still providing some stimulus to the economy, and a swift resolution to the conflict is expected to yield stronger growth this year. Furthermore, she said the RBNZ will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
- US President Trump was reportedly to discuss NATO withdrawal during the Wednesday meeting with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, while it was also reported that the Trump admin is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, according to admin officials cited by WSJ.
- US President Trump posted “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”
- NATO Secretary-General Rutte pointed out to US President Trump that a large majority of European nations have been helpful, during their meeting on Wednesday.
- South Korea and the US will conduct major aerial military drills on April 10th-24th.
- North Korea said it tested some missiles and an electromagnetic weapon system.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- EU’s Dombrovskis said the bloc will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US-Iran ceasefire, while the European Commission is preparing to cut growth forecasts, according to FT
DATA RECAP
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Mar) -23% vs. Exp. -18% (Prev. -12%)
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
ROBERT H..
GBX on X: “Kim Jong-Un broke protocol by inviting the South Korean president to cross the demarcation line and, after a brief hesitation, took him by the hand to cross over to the other side together. https://t.co/Ddem1DWcZQ” / X
The two sides may become one. Then American aid will stop ….. a united Korea would be a power house that would change the balance of power in the region. It would be a nuclear power.
https://x.com/GBX_Press/status/2041978317361000523
3. CHINA/
CHINA//
must have laser beam products destroy these!
(zerohedge0
China Produces “Baby Shahed” Kamikaze Drones For $500
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 10:10 PM
China’s manufacturing base is now churning out short-range, low-cost kamikaze drones priced at under $500 per unit, which X user PLA Military Updates has described as “Baby Shahed” drones.
According to the post, the so-called Baby Shahed costs around 3,000 yuan (about $450), has a range of 20 to 30 kilometers, flies at roughly 200 kilometers per hour, and can be launched by hand or from a rack. These drones could even be launched from a box truck or shipping containers.
PLA Military Updates said the Baby Shaheds are produced by the Chinese civilian drone company FLYControl. More importantly, the platform appears to confirm that China’s civilian drone manufacturing base has the capacity to produce not only these smaller one-way attack drones, but also larger, low-cost kamikaze drones based on Iranian and Russian designs that cost around $20,000 each.
These suicide drones have become critical in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict (currently at a ceasefire) because their low cost and maneuverability via swarming enable them to inflict severe damage on high-value assets, exposing a massive security gap.
The key lesson is that countries seeking deterrence will likely move to stockpile these drones in the millions. The U.S. revealed in recent weeks that it adopted Iran’s drone playbook and deployed a Shahed-style system against Tehran.
As low-cost drones proliferate on the modern battlefield, the economics of war are changing forever. Relying on expensive interceptor missiles to counter cheap one-way attack drones is not sustainable in the long run. That is why low-cost interceptor drones and more affordable counter-UAS systems are likely to gain significant attention from the Department of War, especially after the last six weeks exposed glaring security gaps at U.S. bases and even civilian infrastructure, such as data centers, energy plants, residential towers, and water desalination plants across the Gulf.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS PLUS NATO
EUROPE/REMIX
Will Europe Have Its Own FBI? Polish MEP Sounds Alarm Over EU’s Planned Expansion Of Powers For Europol
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Polish Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Mariusz Kamiński raises alarm about the European Commission’s plans to change Europol’s operations, warning that “the European Commission is quietly building EU law enforcement agencies,” reports Do Rzeczy. There are now fears that Europe could have its own FBI, with vastly expanded and centralized powers.
“The European Public Prosecutor’s Office has already been established, and now the European Commission wants to turn Europol into a ‘truly operational EU police agency.’ This means that citizens of member states will be able to become the target of investigations and operational activities of European law enforcement agencies, bypassing national authorities. This would be a real ‘milestone’ in the construction of a centralized European state. A very dangerous situation!” wrote the former interior and administration minister on X.
Kamiński sent a letter to the European Commission questioning the activities described and defending Europol as it stands.
The agency has been in operation since Jan. 3, 1994.
He notes that “Europol’s success is based on cooperation, supporting member states, and coordinating the fight against cross-border crime. Europol’s activities are particularly important in combating drug crimes, human smuggling, and VAT fraud. This model is a good example of effective cooperation at the European level.”
“Therefore, I oppose the announcements of transforming Europol into a fully operational police agency, which have been met with criticism from many experts and member states. During the LIBE meeting on March 19, 2026, Commissioner Brunner concluded his statement by saying that it will not be a European FBI, which can be interpreted as a departure from the Commission’s radical announcement,” he continued.
The PiS MEP asks: “How does the Commission understand the concept of a ‘truly operational police agency’?” and about safeguards to ensure that Europol “remains an agency supporting member states and not an authority exercising direct police powers.”
END
GERMANY
KOLBE
Germany’s Energy Crisis And The National-Conservative Turn
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
If the Union had been waiting for a favorable moment to save face and quietly escape the energy-policy fiasco, that moment has probably arrived. On Thursday, the European Parliament formed a broad coalition of the Union-backed EPP faction with the national conservatives. The goal: initiate a migration turnaround, prevent citizen chat controls, and soften the grotesque Supply Chain Act.
Among the national-conservative parties in the EU Parliament is also the AfD faction, showing that the firewall against this party is a German phenomenon—a product of hysterical left-green media makers and bloated politicians of the firewall cartel, who fear competition for their privileges.
Never has the opportunity been more favorable to leave the paralyzing logic of the firewall behind once and for all and to form national-civic coalitions than today.
Time is pressing. Germans face a wave of inflation already visible at gas stations and in heating costs. Citizens are approaching a defining initiation moment of truth. Since the beginning of the Iran crisis, fuel prices in Germany have risen by up to 25 percent on average. Gas prices rose another 20 percent in the same period. Going back to 2005, electricity prices in Germany rose a staggering 70 percent—an undeniable proof of the catastrophic failure of the Energiewende.
What the green central planners have left behind can hardly be called energy-market design in the proper sense. On the ruins of a once well-oiled, highly complex structure and the blown-up cooling towers of nuclear plants, a system with built-in fragility has arisen. In a crisis, there are neither sufficient reserves nor systemic resilience against blackouts and the looming economic super-disaster. Above it all hangs the Damocles sword of potential crises that could erupt anywhere in the world at any time and directly hit Germany.
Hormuz reveals the extent of this fragility and exposes the unbelievable hypocrisy behind the green transformation. The story of sun and wind bringing free energy was from the start a bitter fairy tale for anyone not drunk on Trittin, Habeck, and Merkel’s chatter. A mood is brewing, ranging from deep anger to utter contempt for the cult-like transformation ideology.
It is no longer hideable: green transformation is a code word for establishing a vulgar, aggressive extraction mechanism fueled by climate apocalypse fears and moralizing degrowth ideology.
A turn toward modern forms of nuclear energy and the development of Germany’s own enormous gas reserves must now be undertaken—never has public willingness to accept fracking been greater, as the economic crisis sinks into general awareness. Reasonable policy would return to the negotiating table with Russia to urgently discuss resuming gas deliveries. Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart de Wever also called for this. He is far from alone in this view. Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy are forming a real opposition that Brussels will have to reckon with.
But for now, paralysis dominates in the face of economic fallout.
It is painfully clear: Friedrich Merz and his economic minister Katherina Reiche have so far not grasped the extent of the crisis. They rely on the continuity of the green transformation and do not understand that this very construct is both the cause and the end point of the crisis. The bridge that they could now cross together with the AfD has so far been ignored. Reiche did discuss the strategic errors of German energy policy surprisingly openly last week. A possible extension of coal use is suddenly back on the table. But largely, the course remains. Together with Environment Minister Carsten Schneider, Reiche helped secure existing climate policy. Another eight billion euros will be pumped into the green patronage economy. The CO2 market and the ban on combustion engines are held fast.
Beneath it all, green hippie politics shines through like a monolith, blocking any reform effort. Strategic thinking is now needed, beginning with an honest stocktaking to make citizens aware of the true weight of political errors over the past decades. Everyone must understand: there is no simple solution. Politically induced artificial scarcity in the energy sector cannot be erased by chancellor decree.
Or will we possibly start a course correction and dare a 180-degree turn in energy policy? Ideology must give way to reason, green bubble politics to economic prudence, state interventionism to real market design. These are the pillars of the bridge that would then need strengthening and expansion.
But Friedrich Merz is not the Pontifex Maximus we need. He resists all criticism of Brussels’ transformation policies, defends the CO2 certificate trade to the bitter end, and is now preparing, together with his socialist SPD allies, a massive tax hit on the middle class. This man, along with the Union’s leadership team, stands in the way of the future. Merz is the antagonist of the national-conservative turnaround, one of many executors of green hippie politics.
Future national-conservative or national-liberal governments will waste no time fully exposing fiscal fraud, deception, and ideological madness—such as the climate complex. Restoring balance to Germany’s budget, halting Ukraine aid, ending transfers to the green complex, Brussels, and NGOs worldwide will be easy. Necessary social-state reforms, including programs to return illegal migrants, will follow.
As the crisis deepens in the coming years, patriots will gain massive support. This includes libertarians and European cultural patriots, who express their passion for homeland, their will to repair past economic damage, and their desire to preserve Europe’s cultural diversity authentically.
The willingness of people to embrace a reform course, when recognized as contributors to society again, will be overwhelming. Politicians like Katherina Reiche will regret not being part of this turnaround. No bridge will be built for today’s fence-sitters and opportunistic turncoats into future political responsibility.
END
HUNGARY/EUROPE/USA
and he is right to do so with the morons running the European show!!
(Brooke/Remix)
VP Vance Says Brussels’ Attempt To Sway Hungarian Vote Is “Worst Foreign Election Interference He’s Ever Seen”
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance used a high-profile appearance in Budapest alongside Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to accuse Brussels of carrying out “one of the worst examples of foreign and election interference” he had ever seen, claiming EU officials had targeted Hungary because they “hate this guy” and want to weaken his government ahead of the country’s election.
Speaking at a joint press conference in the Hungarian capital on Tuesday, Vance said the “bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary,” had sought to make the country less energy independent, and had “tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers.”
“They’ve done it all because they hate this guy,” he added, pointing at Orbán.
The U.S. vice president cast the vote as a test of national sovereignty and told Hungarian voters to ask not who was pro-Europe or pro-America, but “who is pro-you” and “who is pro the people of Hungary.”
He caveated his address by insisting he was not telling Hungarians how to vote, and urged the “bureaucrats in Brussels to do the exact same thing.”
Meanwhile, Orbán hailed a new “golden era” in ties with Washington under President Donald Trump and said the return of Trump had transformed bilateral relations after years without a visit by such a senior American official. He said 2025 had been a record year for economic cooperation and that 2026 was already bringing further momentum, pointing to expanded collaboration in defense and space technology as well as new U.S. investment.
Both men used the press conference to present Hungary and the Trump administration as ideological allies. Orbán said the two sides were in constant contact on migration, “gender ideology,” family policy, and global security, while Vance said the partnership was rooted not primarily in economics but in “moral cooperation.”
“What the United States and Hungary together represent under Viktor’s leadership and under President Trump’s leadership is the defense of Western civilization,” Vance said. He said that meant defending the idea that children should be educated “and not indoctrinated,” that families should be able to afford their energy bills, and that the West remained grounded in “Christian civilization and Christian values.”
The vice president also praised Orbán’s handling of energy policy, saying the Hungarian leader had been “the single most profound leader in Europe on the question of inter energy security and independence.” He argued that other European governments were now paying the price for failing to follow a similar path, saying Hungary’s energy price pressures were still less severe than those seen in much of the rest of Europe.
Both leaders argued that Trump’s return to power had strengthened the cause of peace in Ukraine. Orbán said Hungary had lived “in the shadows of a war for four years now” and repeated his long-held claim that the conflict would never have begun had Trump been in office in 2022. He also accused Brussels of obstructing peace efforts, saying that if European leaders had not been “blocking the peace efforts of the president, peace would prevail” in Ukraine already.
The Hungarian prime minister also used the appearance to accuse Ukraine of taking steps designed to damage Hungary before the election. He said Kyiv had earlier blocked a gas pipeline route and had now also blockaded an oil pipeline that he described as “the umbilical cord of the Hungarian economy.” Orbán said Hungary had been forced to tap its reserves, but insisted he had a plan to force Ukraine to reopen the route after the election.
“We have to force the Ukrainians to reopen the pipeline, and we have a plan to do that,” Orbán said. “After the national forces win the election here in Hungary … there will be no option left for the Ukrainians than to lift this blockade.”
Vance echoed that confrontational line, saying there were “elements within the Ukrainian intelligence services” that had tried to “put their thumb on the scale of American elections” and Hungarian elections too. He said that behavior was “just what they do,” though he added that Ukraine, like the United States, contained both “good people and bad people.”
At another point, Vance was asked whether the United States would work with a different Hungarian leader if Orbán were defeated. He replied that Washington would work with whoever won because it loved “the people of Hungary,” but immediately added: “Viktor Orban is going to win the next election in Hungary.”
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL TBN/LAST 24 HRS
ISRAEL/USA/VS IRAN
INSIDE ARAGHCHI!!
Iran’s Araghchi seen as country’s most powerful foreign minister yet – explainer
Iranian and US officials are expected to hold talks on Friday to discuss a long-term settlement after the longtime foes agreed on a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire to suspend a six-week-old war.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi speaks at a weekly news conference in Tehran, Iran, on March 16, 2026.(photo credit: Shadati/Xinhua via Getty Images)ByREUTERSAPRIL 9, 2026 01:09
The son of an Iranian carpet merchant from Isfahan, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will accompany the parliament speaker in peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, has compared the country’s negotiating style to the bartering of the bazaar, an approach requiring “patience and great time.”
Iranian and US officials are expected to hold talks on Friday to discuss a long-term settlement after the longtime foes agreed on a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire to suspend a six-week-old war that has killed thousands, spread across the Middle East, and caused unprecedented disruption to the world’s energy supplies.
Tehran said the Iranian delegation, led by influential former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will enter peace talks with caution, citing a deep trust deficit with Washington.
Israel removed Araghchi and Ghalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan urged Washington to press Israel not to target them, a Pakistani source told Reuters last month, making them some of the few top figures left that could negotiate with the United States after scores of Iran’s senior political and military officials were targeted during the war.
Araghchi, Iran’s top diplomat since 2024, was picked by Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lead several rounds of talks with US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, in efforts to resolve Tehran’s longstanding nuclear dispute with the West.
Talks, mediated by Oman, stalled on core issues, from uranium enrichment to missiles and sanctions relief.
The mild-mannered diplomat played a key role in years of negotiations that led to Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers – the agreement torn up by Trump in 2018 during his first term.
Political insiders have described the British-educated Araghchi as one of the Islamic Republic’s most powerful foreign ministers yet.
Iran’s clerical establishment appears confident in his ability to play its hand with deftness and guile.
Writing in his 2024 book The Power of Negotiation, Araghchi noted that the Iranians’ negotiating approach was commonly referred to as “the style of the bazaar,” meaning “continuous and persistent bargaining.” He described in a footnote memories of his late mother’s bartering skill.
But he also cautioned against overplaying your hand. “When you sell snow under the sun, bargaining more than necessary is a loss,” he wrote, in an Arabic translation of the book.
Araghchi seen as master of tough negotiations
Araghchi cultivated a reputation as a master of tough negotiation during the talks over Iran’s nuclear program over a decade ago. Under that deal, Iran agreed tight restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Western diplomats involved in those talks have described him as serious, technically knowledgeable, and straightforward.
Araghchi joined Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution as a teenager and fought in the 1980s Iran-Iraq War before embarking on a diplomatic career.
An insider who has known Araghchi for years said he is calm and patient, yet combative and resilient.
Araghchi was the point man for ultimately unsuccessful efforts to resurrect the 2015 deal during US President Joe Biden’s 2021-25 administration, until he was replaced with a hardliner.
Soon afterwards, he was named secretary of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations – a key body advising the supreme leader, pulling him into the inner orbit of Iran’s ultimate authority.
Born in Tehran in 1962 to a wealthy religious merchant family, Araghchi was only 17 when the Islamic Revolution washed over Iran and filled many of its youth with radical fervor.
Inspired by the ousting of the US-backed Shah’s dynastic regime and the promise of a new future, he enlisted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s military vanguard, to fight in the 1980-88 war with Iraq.
He joined the foreign ministry in 1989 and served as ambassador in Finland from 1999 to 2003 and Japan from 2007 to 2011 before becoming foreign ministry spokesman in 2013.
He obtained a doctorate in politics from the University of Kent in Britain and was appointed deputy foreign minister in 2013.
A devout Muslim, Araghchi has served under presidents whose instincts have ranged from pragmatic to hardline.
Despite being a political insider with close ties to Khamenei, Araghchi has kept himself distant from “political frays and infighting” between factions and he maintained good relations with the powerful Revolutionary Guards and all factions in Iran, according to a senior Iranian official.
END
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN
CEASEFIRE HOLDS!!/UPDATES
Trump Warns Of Action If Iran Fails To Uphold ‘Real’ Ceasefire, But Optimism Persists As Bombing Largely Subsides
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 08:55 AM
Summary:
- WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.
- Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.
- Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.
- Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.
- Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
*
Optimism: Bombs Largely Go Quiet
Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes that “To my understanding, By tomorrow, first break of light, is when both delegations of US and Iran will be in Islamabad to hold talks.”
There’s some optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as it’s been relatively quiet in the Middle East overnight into Thursday, despite Israel getting some final shots on Lebanon in. On this, Iran’s president has made clear Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and against Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, warning that these actions could make talks moot before they even begin.
Reuters observes, “Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war.”
Still, Gulf countries like the UAE have stated that no air threats have been detected or are inbound in the past hours, which is a rare positive development. There has been a decline in Iranian attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf region. Also, Israeli society has begun to return to normalcy, with emergency and shelter in place measures lifted across most parts of the country, and Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv having resumed operations as of midnight.
The reality of who actually controls the Hormuz Strait, told in one awkward WH press exchange:
Over 250 Killed In Lebanon on Single Day
But the reality remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – a mere few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut down traffic again, citing the heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war to date.
Sky News reports that at least 254 people were killed by the Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, citing government health authorities. In Beirut alone, at least 91 people were killed, amid ongoing rescue efforts and treatment of the wounded in area hospitals. Over 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.
Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises
Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.
The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…
Here’s president Trump’s full Truth Social statement wherein he warns that the shooting can start again “bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before”:
Iran’s leadership has meanwhile been insistent on Lebanon being part of the Iran ceasefire, and has on this basis accused Washington of already violating at least three clauses of the ten point plan. It too has serious cards to play – especially while still de facto controlling Hormuz, and with the ability to renew attacks on energy sites in Gulf states.
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
US dispatching negotiating team for Iran talks, Tehran signals willingness to hand over uranium
US Vice President JD Vance, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will be involved in the talks, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
US White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks during a press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 8, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/EVELYN HOCKSTEIN)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 8, 2026 21:20Updated: APRIL 8, 2026 22:09
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt celebrated the United States-Iran ceasefire agreement, announcing that US President Donald Trump is dispatching a negotiating team to Pakistan for talks on the deal during a press conference on Wednesday.
The team will be led by US Vice President JD Vance, Leavitt stated, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also participating. The first round of talks is set to take place on Saturday.
Leavitt also noted that Iran had indicated to the US that it would be willing to turn over its stock of enriched uranium.
“That is a red line that the President is not going to back away from, and he’s committed to ensuring that takes place,” Leavitt told the briefing.
Asked whether the Iranians had given an indication they would hand over the uranium, Leavitt replied: “They have, yes.” She did not give further details.
She also told reporters that before the US and Iran agreed to the current ceasefire agreement, Iran had originally put forward a proposal that the US deemed to be unacceptable.
Trump wants to see Strait of Hormuz fully open
Leavitt additionally addressed the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Trump wants to see the Strait of Hormuz open up for oil tankers and other traffic without any limitations, including tolls.
“The immediate priority of the president is the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise,” Leavitt said.
The US has seen an uptick in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, Leavitt told reporters.
Leavitt was asked who currently controlled the Strait of Hormuz and declined to answer.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically vital maritime chokepoints, with about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows passing through it.
Amid ceasefire talks with the US and Israel, Tehran has sought to formalize this control by proposing fees or tolls on vessels passing through the Strait, and Trump on Wednesday suggested the US and Iran could collect tolls in a joint venture.
end
IRAN//editorial
From Khamenei’s death to the ‘Islamabad Accords’: Ceasefire leaves unanswered questions – editorial
Former supreme leader Ali Khamenei is dead. Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure has been set back to a degree Israeli defense planners would have called fantasy in 2024. But the regime survived.
Iranians react after a ceasefire announcement at the Enqelab square, in Tehran, on April 8 2026.(photo credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)ByJPOST EDITORIALAPRIL 9, 2026 05:53
A two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran took effect Tuesday, ending 39 days of war. The “Islamabad Accords,” brokered by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir, are already fraying.
Missile attacks hit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait within hours. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening under terms that let Iran and Oman collect transit fees. Negotiations begin Friday. Nothing is settled.
The instinct right now is to focus on what went wrong. That instinct should be resisted long enough to reckon with what this campaign accomplished – but not so long that we mistake a successful military operation for a resolved strategic problem.
Former supreme leader Ali Khamenei is dead. The man who directed Iran’s regional aggression for 35 years was killed on February 28 in a precision Israeli airstrike, along with dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) senior commanders.
Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure has been set back to a degree Israeli defense planners would have called fantasy in 2024. Its air defenses failed to prevent sustained strikes over five weeks. Its navy in the Gulf of Oman is wrecked. Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) has confirmed at least 1,221 military dead. Iran International places the toll at 4,700.
The nuclear program has been struck in two consecutive campaigns. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that highly enriched uranium stored underground survived 2025. Much of that capacity has been hit.
Iran is further from a weapon than at any point since it began enrichment. The proxy network is gone. Hezbollah’s senior leadership has been systematically eliminated. Hamas no longer functions militarily. The Houthis stayed out entirely. Iran spent four decades building a system that let it wage war without its own flag on the battlefield. It no longer exists.
Netanyahu claims victory in televised address
In a televised address Wednesday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the campaign as a vindication: “We shook the foundations of the regime. We crushed their missile manufacturing plants. The Iranians are firing what’s left in their magazine. It’s running out.”
He confirmed that Israel had destroyed centrifuge plants and eliminated additional nuclear scientists, and insisted the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon, calling the ongoing strikes there “the hardest blow, perhaps since the pagers.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed the confidence: “This is a victory for the United States that President Trump and our incredible military made happen.”
Those are fair assessments of the military outcome. The trouble is that wars are not graded on military outcomes alone.
President Donald Trump authorized the February 28 strike when Washington’s foreign policy establishment argued against it. His maximum pressure sanctions had hollowed out Iran’s economy. His deadline brinkmanship produced the ceasefire. Israel should acknowledge this partnership clearly.
But the regime survived. Mojtaba Khamenei inherited power through a dynastic succession that the revolution was supposed to reject, and the IRGC pledged its loyalty within days. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared “nearly all the objectives of the war” achieved. By any military measure, that is absurd. As propaganda for a battered domestic audience, it may be enough.
The Hormuz crisis is the sharpest concern. Iran discovered that closing a fifth of global oil supply gives it leverage that no airstrike can destroy. The ceasefire’s shipping fee arrangement risks institutionalizing that leverage. If the Islamabad negotiations allow Iran to convert wartime coercion into a permanent revenue stream, much of what the military campaign achieved will be undermined.
HRANA’s documentation of 1,665 civilian dead, a significant number of them children, will shape international opinion for years. The images from Minab, from the B1 bridge, from the Rafi Niya synagogue will not fade quickly. Israel cannot afford to ignore the weight of that narrative, even while rejecting the conclusions its critics draw from it.
The balance sheet tilts in Israel’s favor. That is true. Iran’s ability to threaten this country has diminished over the years. But Netanyahu’s own words Wednesday night suggest the government understands this is unfinished: “There are more objectives to complete, and we will achieve them, either by agreement or by resuming fighting. Our finger is on the trigger.”
The war gave Israel an opening it has not had in a generation. Whether it amounts to anything lasting depends entirely on what comes next.
END
the story of how it was done!
(JerusalemPost)
‘Talks were almost dead’: Pakistan’s last-ditch effort to secure Iran war truce
Pakistan’s effort involved direct contact with top officials on all sides, with a Pakistani source saying the hardest part of the process was convincing Iran to accept a truce without preconditions.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (R) speaks with Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam (L),(photo credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)ByREUTERSAPRIL 8, 2026 22:45
Mediation efforts to halt the Iran war were hours from collapse when Pakistan mounted an overnight diplomatic push to secure a temporary ceasefire and bring Washington and Tehran into direct negotiations, four Pakistani sources told Reuters.
The effort nearly unraveled after an Iranian strike on a Saudi petrochemical facility triggered fury in Riyadh and threatened to derail weeks of back-channel diplomacy, the sources – with direct knowledge of the talks – said.
With a deadline set by US President Donald Trump looming, Pakistani officials mounted a last-ditch attempt to pass messages between Tehran and Washington, after Trump warned that continued fighting that night could wipe out “a whole civilization.”
Pakistan’s effort involved direct contact with top officials on all sides, including Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and senior Revolutionary Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi, one of the sources said.
After what a second source described as several “intense, breathless” hours during which “the talks were almost dead,” Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire without preconditions and to enter negotiations.
“In the evening, Iran was on thin ice after the attacks on KSA (Saudi Arabia), but they knew there would be no extension to the deadline,” the first source said.
Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership remained engaged through the night, speaking with senior US, Iranian, Saudi, and other officials until Trump announced the breakthrough.
Minutes before Trump posted the announcement, he was on the phone with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, the source said.
Assurances on Israel
While Pakistan conveyed its “strongest ever anger” to Iran over the strike on Saudi Arabia, with whom Islamabad has a mutual defense pact that could drag it into the war, it simultaneously sought assurances from Washington that it would rein in Israeli strikes on Iran.
Iranian officials said they had launched the strike on the petrochemical complex in Jubail after an Israeli attack on an Iranian petrochemical facility, the second source said. Tehran could not enter negotiations if such strikes continued, they added.
Pakistan then told Washington that Israeli actions were jeopardizing its peace efforts and that Islamabad might not be able to persuade Iran to come to the table, the source said.
Only after receiving an assurance that Israel would hold back was Pakistan able to persuade Tehran to agree to a temporary ceasefire without preconditions.
Two Israeli sources said Israel had opposed a deal with Iran, believing more could be achieved militarily, although it ultimately decided to support any decision taken by Trump.
An Israeli official said Washington had coordinated with Israel, and the truce did not include any commitment to permanently end the war, compensate Iran, or lift sanctions.
The official added that in any negotiations with Tehran, the United States would insist Iran hand over its nuclear material, halt uranium enrichment, and remove the threat posed by its ballistic missile program.
The Israeli prime minister’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
No one slept
Around midnight (1900 GMT), Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged all parties to observe a ceasefire to allow the peace process to begin.
The request was a coordinated move to lock in the ceasefire and came after both sides had already agreed in principle, the first source said.
“We wouldn’t have made the request if the answer was going to be negative,” the source said.
The late-night conversations included repeated exchanges over a 15-point US proposal and two core questions: what would the ceasefire look like and the parameters for the talks, a diplomat from the Middle East who has been in contact with both sides said.
Iran proposed recognition of its sovereignty over the international waterway at the center of much of the conflict – the Strait of Hormuz – a demand likely to be unacceptable to Washington, the diplomat said.
Tehran was also asking for the right to pursue nuclear energy and strike bilateral defense deals with regional states, as mediators tried to steer talks away from issues that could cause immediate clashes, the diplomat added.
Talks will start on Saturday, and the US delegation will be led by Vance, with Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner also part of the team, the White House said in an announcement that followed hours of speculation on what Trump would decide.
Iran has indicated it would turn over its stocks of enriched uranium, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters as she made the announcement about talks.
Two Pakistani sources said the Iranian delegation would be led by Araqchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.
A third Pakistani source said the hardest part of the process was convincing Iran to accept a truce without preconditions.
“Until the last hours, Iran acted as a hardliner. The Iranians were not ready to budge without first putting their demands forward. We told them the demands can wait for the talks to happen,” the source said.
By the time Trump announced the ceasefire and Sharif extended invitations to delegations from both countries, the sun was nearly rising over Islamabad.
“We have been working throughout the night,” Sharif said at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday… if we turn it into a book, it will serve as a big lesson for this nation and for generations to come, about how not to give up in a hopeless situation.”
end
HEZBOLLAH
LAST NIGHT
Live Updates: IDF, Hezbollah trade blows as negotiators prepare to broker peace with Iran
Iran threatens ships moving through Hormuz • US, Iran delegations arriving in Pakistan on Friday • Most Israeli schools to open on Thursday as Home Front Command updates guidelines
An Anti-war demonstrator holds up a sign with a symbol of peace as they gather near the White House to protest the war in Iran on April 7, 2026 in Washington, DC.(photo credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
April 9, 4:17 AM
Hezbollah fires rockets at northern Israel, citing ceasefire breaches
ByREUTERS
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said early on Thursday it fired rockets at northern Israel in its first attack against the country since the United States reached a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran.
Hezbollah said in a statement that its attack came in response to what it described as Israeli ceasefire violations, after Israel launched its biggest attack on Lebanon in this war on Wednesday.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL EARLY THIS MORNING;
IDF kills Hezbollah chief’s secretary in Beirut, strikes crossings and weapons sites
The IDF added that overnight strikes targeted two key crossings used by Hezbollah operatives to move between areas north and south of the Litani River and transfer weapons.
Secretary and nephew of Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who was killed in an IDF strike on April 8, 2026.(photo credit: Via section 27a of copyright act)
APRIL 9, 2026 09:42Updated: APRIL 9, 2026 12:33
The IDF said Thursday that it killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, a close aide to Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, in a strike in Beirut on Wednesday, as part of a broader wave of attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon.
Harshi was Qassem’s personal secretary and nephew, who also served as a senior advisor and played a central role in managing and securing the Hezbollah leader’s office.
The IDF added that overnight strikes targeted two key crossings used by Hezbollah operatives to move between areas north and south of the Litani River and transfer weapons. Around 10 weapons storage sites, launchers, and command centers in southern Lebanon were struck as part of ongoing efforts to disrupt the group’s military capabilities, the IDF said.
Separately, IDF troops from the 401st Brigade located a shaft leading to a subterranean site from which a terrorist emerged and was killed in close-quarters combat earlier this week. Inside, troops discovered a cache of weapons, including explosives, rockets, RPG launchers, grenades, and additional equipment, according to the military.
Meanwhile, troops from the 215th Fire Brigade killed more than 70 Hezbollah terrorists, including a cell preparing mortar fire against Israeli forces, the IDF said.
Earlier on Thursday, the IDF published footage of Paratroopers Brigade troops operating under the 98th Division during ground operations in southern Lebanon over the past week, targeting dozens of Hezbollah operatives and uncovering hidden weapons.
The military said troops moved into additional areas as part of efforts to establish operational control and reinforce Israel’s forward defensive line along the northern border. The operations were aimed at removing threats to Israeli civilians in the north while degrading Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the area, according to the military.
Troops located and seized a range of weapons, the IDF said, including firearms, magazines, and explosive devices that had been concealed, often within civilian areas, for use against IDF troops. The military added that the weapons caches were embedded within operational zones used by Hezbollah.
The Paratroopers Brigade has now established operational control over key sectors in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF, and continues to carry out strikes on what it described as terrorist infrastructure.
IDF activity in Lebanon aimed at reducing threats to frontline communities
The activity marks a continued expansion of Israeli ground maneuvers in Lebanon, as the military seeks to push Hezbollah forces further from the border and reduce immediate threats to northern communities.
The IDF released initial footage and images from the operations, showing troops conducting searches, locating weapons, and operating in built-up and rural terrain across southern Lebanon.https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4035871&url=www.jpost.comIDF soldiers of the Paratroopers Brigade, operating under the 98th Division, seen during operational activity in southern Lebanon, April 2026. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
IDF carries out “largest coordinated wave of strikes across Lebanon” since war began
The IDF said Wednesday afternoon that it carried out what it called its “largest coordinated wave of strikes across Lebanon” since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, targeting over 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites across Beirut.
The IDF has said it was carrying out operations “In accordance with directives from the political leadership,” amid conflicting reports of whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire with Iran announced earlier this week by US President Donald Trump.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire agreement.
END
UK/LEBANON/
UK AND SPANISH GOVERNMENTS ARE IDIOTS
Israel’s pounding of Lebanon is ‘deeply damaging’, UK foreign minister says
Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also condemned Israel’s “massive strikes” on Lebanon, stating that the country must be included in a ceasefire agreement.
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper at the UN Security Council, New York, February 18, 2026; illustrative.(photo credit: REUTERS/JEENAH MOON)
ByJAMES GENN, REUTERS
APRIL 9, 2026 09:46Updated: APRIL 9, 2026 12:10
Israel’s pounding of Lebanon was “deeply damaging,” and the conflict must end to prevent the US-Iran ceasefire from being destabilized, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told Times Radio on Thursday.
Israel says that these strikes targeted over 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites across Beirut.
“We want to see Lebanon included in the ceasefire… We want it extended to cover Lebanon, because otherwise that will destabilize the whole region,” she added.
“That escalation that we saw from Israel yesterday was deeply damaging, and we want to see an end to hostilities,” she continued.
Additionally, toll-free shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured, Cooper said.
Fundamental freedoms of the sea must not be unilaterally withdrawn or sold off, and support should be given for the International Maritime Organization’s proposals for ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, she added.
Cooper also denounced US President Donald Trump’s Tuesday threats that a “whole civilization will die” if an agreement is not reached to end the conflict.
“I think that the rhetoric that we’ve seen used has been completely wrong,” she told Sky News. “That sort of escalatory rhetoric can have escalatory consequences.”
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social at the time. “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
“We will find out tonight,” Trump added, “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”
French FM Barrot condemns Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, says Iran must give up nuclear weapons plans, end support for terror proxies
Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also condemned Israel’s “massive strikes” on Lebanon, stating that the country must be included in a ceasefire agreement.
“Iran must give up having nuclear weapons and the means to obtain them, must give up using its missiles and drones to threaten countries in the region, and must give up supporting groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis who destabilize the region,” he said in an interview with Radio Station France Inter.
The Islamic regime must also open all traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, noting that this traffic will not flow freely until an agreement is reached between the “belligerents.”
“I do not think we can speak of a winner in the current war,” he stated.
Barrot added that he expects Iran to make a series of concessions as part of the peace talks due to start in Pakistan.
Spain condemns Israeli attacks on Lebanon, reopens Tehran embassy
Additionally, Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares accused Israel of violating international law by carrying out airstrikes on Lebanon on Wednesday.
Spain has emerged as one of the most vocal critics among Western nations of US and Israel’s operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury in Iran and Lebanon, closing its airspace to any aircraft involved in a conflict Madrid has called reckless and illegal.
“Yesterday we saw how Israel, flouting the ceasefire and in violation of international law, dropped hundreds of bombs on Lebanon,” Albares told lawmakers in the lower house.
Earlier on Thursday, Albares announced that Spain would reopen its embassy in Tehran in hopes of achieving peace in the region.
“I’ve instructed our ambassador in Tehran to return, to take up his post again and reopen our embassy, and for us to join in this effort for peace from every possible quarter, including from the Iranian capital itself,” Albares told reporters.
Italy PM Meloni says reopening of strait of Hormuz is vital
Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a vital interest for her country and the whole of the European Union.
end
USA/ISRAEL LEBANON//
LATE THIS AFTERNOON
More Iran Truce Optimism: Israel To Open Ceasefire Negotiations With Lebanon After Trump Pressures Netanyahu, Oil Drops
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 11:45 AM
Summary:
- Bibi says pursuing Lebanon ceasefire after reports of Trump pressure. Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.
- WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.
- Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.
- Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.
- Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday. TASS reporting only 15 ‘vetted’ tankers per day to be let through.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Bibi: We are Opening Direct Negotiations With Lebanon
Huge development per Axios:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated calls to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the Cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. Israel appreciates the Lebanese Prime Minister’s call today to evacuate Beirut
This after NBC News just reported that President Trump has requested that Israel reduce its bombing of Lebanon. There are some caveats: a senior Israeli official has said the negotiations will begin in the “coming days” and is not yet happening. Also, per Newsquawk (and via “Now 14”), the negotiations will take place “under fire” – meaning there could be continued strikes unleashed on Lebanon.
Oil dumps and stocks spike on the news…
15 ‘Vetted’ Vessels Per Day To Be Allowed Through Hormuz: TASS
The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, “Iran’s approval system for ships granted safe passage – after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened.”
“Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said,” the AP report continues. “Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.” There are currently few indicators revealing Iran’s intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel’s anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.
Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published Iranian sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz. As for Iran’s protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s list outlines the following on where things stand:
- Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
- Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
- IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation
Optimism: Bombs Largely Go Quiet
Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes that “To my understanding, By tomorrow, first break of light, is when both delegations of US and Iran will be in Islamabad to hold talks.”
There’s some optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as it’s been relatively quiet in the Middle East overnight into Thursday, despite Israel getting some final shots on Lebanon in. On this, Iran’s president has made clear Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and against Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, warning that these actions could make talks moot before they even begin.
Reuters observes, “Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war.”
Over 250 Killed In Lebanon on Single Day
But the reality remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – a mere few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut down traffic again, citing the heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war to date.
Sky News reports that at least 254 people were killed by the Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, citing government health authorities. In Beirut alone, at least 91 people were killed, amid ongoing rescue efforts and treatment of the wounded in area hospitals. Over 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.
Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises
Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.
The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…
Here’s president Trump’s full Truth Social statement wherein he warns that the shooting can start again “bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before”:
Iran’s leadership has meanwhile been insistent on Lebanon being part of the Iran ceasefire, and has on this basis accused Washington of already violating at least three clauses of the ten point plan. It too has serious cards to play – especially while still de facto controlling Hormuz, and with the ability to renew attacks on energy sites in Gulf states.
Over 250 Killed In Lebanon on Single Day
But the reality remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – a mere few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut down traffic again, citing the heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war to date.
Sky News reports that at least 254 people were killed by the Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, citing government health authorities. In Beirut alone, at least 91 people were killed, amid ongoing rescue efforts and treatment of the wounded in area hospitals. Over 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.
Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises
Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.
The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…
Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises
Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.
The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…
Iran on Lebanon Violations: ‘Choose War or Ceasefire, You Can’t Have Both’
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has told CBS News Israel’s attacks on Lebanon Wednesday were “a grave violation” of the ceasefire agreement, and emphasized the US must choose “between war and ceasefire – you cannot have it both at the same time.”
“You cannot ask for a ceasefire and then accept terms and conditions, accept areas the ceasefire is applied to, and name Lebanon, exactly Lebanon in that, and then your ally just start a massacre,” Khatibzadeh said.
Netanyahu’s message has remained that Israel can strike Hezbollah whenever and “wherever” it chooses. “In Beirut, we eliminated Ali Youssef Kharshi, the personal secretary of Hezbollah terror organization Secretary-General Naim Qassem and one of the people closest to him. At the same time, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon: crossings used to transfer thousands of weapons, rockets, and launchers, as well as weapons depots, launchers, and Hezbollah headquarters,” Netanyahu said.
END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON//LEBANON
South Beirut Sees Mass Exodus Amid Diplomatic Scramble To Ward Off Israeli Raids
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 11:35 AM
Israel has on Thursday warned civilians in south Beirut to evacuate their homes and neighborhoods, amid fears of a fresh impending aerial assault, after IDF strikes across Lebanon and the capital the day prior led to at least 250 Lebanese deaths and over 1,400 people wounded. These were the heaviest strikes of the war.
“Just a short while ago, the Israeli military issued new forced evacuation orders, warning of air strikes this time for the southern suburbs, expanding the area where it says strikes may be conducted, including the Jnah neighborhood, which is south of a previously evacuated area,” Al Jazeera reports. Panic and a mass exodus is being reported:
The effected area is densely populated with civilians and lies adjacent to Beirut’s lone international airport. People who fled Wednesday’s strikes on central Beirut in some places came to the Jnah area.
If Israeli bombs on Lebanon start flying again, this could re-trigger Iranian attacks on Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have also threatened to act, and all of this could collapse the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, amid impending talks expected to begin in Pakistan on Saturday.
Hezbollah now says it is engaged in ground clashes with the Israeli military in southern Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil area, per Al Jazeera, which lies a mere 3 miles from the Israeli border. Israel is seeking to de facto annex the area, Lebanon believes.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz has meanwhile stated the operations have dealt a “very strong blow to Hezbollah’s face, leaving it stunned and confused by the depth of the penetration and the scope of the blow.” Meanwhile:
TRUMP ASKED NETANYAHU TO REDUCE BOMBING IN LEBANON TO AID SUCCESSFUL IRAN NEGOTIATIONS, ACCORDING TO NBC REPORTS.
Referencing hundreds of ballistic missiles which were sent on Israel in the last weeks, Katz said the IDF is “prepared and ready to act forcefully if Iran fires at Israel.” Hezbollah had also by mid-March joined the fight.
Currently, Lebanese hospitals are said to be overwhelmed while treating victims of the latest Israeli air raids, and are said to be in short supply, also seeking blood donations.
Reuters details, “Some of Lebanon’s hospitals could run out of life-saving trauma medical kits within days as supplies near depletion following mass casualties from large-scale Israeli strikes over the past day, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.” The WHO outlined that “The life-saving trauma kits include bandages, antibiotics and anaesthetics to treat patients who sustained war-related injuries.”
END
EARLY THIS EVENING 4 PM
Trump ‘Optimistic’ An Iran Deal Within Reach, After First Non-Iranian Tanker Transits Hormuz Since Ceasefire
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 01:20 PM
Summary:
- Bibi says pursuing Lebanon ceasefire after reports of Trump pressure. Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.
- Trump ‘optimistic’ a deal within reach (NBC). WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.
- Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.
- Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.
- Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday. TASS reporting only 15 ‘vetted’ tankers per day to be let through. Thursday sees first non-Iranian tanker pass since ceasefire.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by-april-15th-962-364-677&height=300Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump ‘Optimistic’ Iran Deal Within Reach, After 1st Non-Iranian Tanker Transits Hormuz Since Ceasefire
AFP has cited MarineTraffic monitor to report that the first non-Iranian tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began.
Also per NBC, Trump says he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, as Vance is set to head up the American side for Pakistan talks, scheduled for Saturday monring.
This marks the most direct signal yet from the US President himself that negotiations could have real momentum. He also told NBC that Tehran is “more agreeable than it shows in public.” However, despite these ‘positives’ – the case of Israel-Lebanon fighting could derail a lasting peace:
Hezbollah MP says group rejects any direct talks between Lebanon, Israel (HARVEY: WONDER WHY?)
Bibi: We are Opening Direct Negotiations With Lebanon
Huge development per Axios:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated calls to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the Cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. Israel appreciates the Lebanese Prime Minister’s call today to evacuate Beirut
This after NBC News just reported that President Trump has requested that Israel reduce its bombing of Lebanon. There are some caveats: a senior Israeli official has said the negotiations will begin in the “coming days” and is not yet happening. Also, per Newsquawk (and via “Now 14”), the negotiations will take place “under fire” – meaning there could be continued strikes unleashed on Lebanon.
Oil dumps and stocks spike on the news…
15 ‘Vetted’ Vessels Per Day To Be Allowed Through Hormuz: TASS
The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, “Iran’s approval system for ships granted safe passage – after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened.”
“Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said,” the AP report continues. “Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.” There are currently few indicators revealing Iran’s intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel’s anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.
Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published Iranian sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz. As for Iran’s protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s list outlines the following on where things stand:
- Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
- Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
- IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation
Optimism: Bombs Largely Go Quiet
Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes that “To my understanding, By tomorrow, first break of light, is when both delegations of US and Iran will be in Islamabad to hold talks.”
There’s some optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as it’s been relatively quiet in the Middle East overnight into Thursday, despite Israel getting some final shots on Lebanon in. On this, Iran’s president has made clear Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and against Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, warning that these actions could make talks moot before they even begin.
Reuters observes, “Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war.”
END
HAMAS/ISRAEL/LAST NIGHT
Hamas operative posing as journalist killed in Gaza strike, IDF says
The target was identified as Muhammad Samir Muhammad Washah, whom the military described as a key figure in Hamas’s rocket and weapons production headquarters.
Al-Jazeera journalist and Hamas terrorist Mohammed Washah
(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT
)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 9, 2026 10:42
The IDF said Thursday that it had killed a Hamas operative who posed a threat to Israeli forces and operated under the guise of a journalist, in a strike carried out in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, according to a military statement.
The target was identified as Muhammad Samir Muhammad Washah, whom the military described as a key figure in Hamas’s rocket and weapons production headquarters. According to the IDF, Washah had been actively planning attacks against Israeli troops operating in the area.
The military said that throughout the war, Washah was involved in the development of drones, rockets, and other weapons, and also played a role in transferring arms across Gaza.
The IDF previously claimed that Washah had presented himself as a journalist affiliated with Al Jazeera, allegedly using that identity as cover to advance terrorist activities against Israeli forces and the State of Israel.
Washah contributed to Hamas’s force build-up
The statement added that Washah contributed to Hamas’s force build-up and was directly involved in planning attacks, posing what the military described as a “concrete threat” to troops.
Prior to the strike, the IDF said measures were taken to minimize civilian harm, including the use of precision-guided munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.
The military noted that IDF forces under the Southern Command remain deployed in accordance with the ceasefire and will continue operating to remove immediate threats on the ground.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GROUNDBREAKING NEW STUDY REGARDING IVERMECTIN AND CANCER
by The Wellness Company
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the vast majority of Americans – regardless of their ideological leanings – simply trusted the medical establishment. That trust was devastated by the experience of the pandemic. According to polling, in April 2020 – at the outbreak of the pandemic – 71.5% of respondents reported having “a lot of trust” in physicians and hospitals. By January 2024, that number had plummeted to 40.1%.
Unfortunately, trust in our healthcare system and its institutions has been undermined by a belief that decisions are being made – not based on what is in the best interest of Americans healthcare – but what is in the best interest of corporate bottom lines.
To restore faith in our system, we need research and treatment that is focused on the patient’s health – not just profit. That’s where The Wellness Company comes in.
Dr. Peter McCullough, and a number of his colleagues at The Wellness Company, have recently authored a first of its kind study of the application of Ivermectin+Mebendazole in the treatment of cancer.
84% of Cancer Patients Reported a Clinical Benefit
In this human observational analysis, off-label use of Ivermectin+Mebendazole showed a remarkable 84% Clinical Benefit Ratio in the treatment of cancer. These results indicate that the inexpensive and safe off-label applications of these medications could be an important breakthrough in the treatment of cancer.
The report analyzed 197 cancer patients who were prescribed ivermectin and mebendazole off label. Participants received compounded oral capsules containing 25 mg of ivermectin and 250 mg of mebendazole. After 6-months, participants reported an 84% Clinical Benefit Ratio. With 48% of participants reporting regression or no evidence of cancer, while 36% reported disease stability. Only 15.6% of participants reported disease progression.
Cancer remains one of the leading causes of death globally, with conventional treatments such as chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and targeted agents frequently limited by significant toxicity, high cost, development of resistance, and variable long-term efficacy.
The experts at The Wellness Company undertook this study because ivermectin and mebendazole have demonstrated highly promising anti-cancer activity in preclinical models. But despite compelling preclinical data and documented safe use in cancer patients, robust clinical evidence evaluating the ivermectin–mebendazole combination in oncology remains limited.
According to Dr. McCullough, “This study reveals an exciting new potential that should expand the consideration of ivermectin and mebendazole for inclusion in the treatment of multiple cancer types. We urgently need a full-fledged scientific investigation into this class of medications and their impact on cancer treatment.”
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
US: Goo Goo Dolls cancel 3rd consecutive show; Horse the Band on pause, Nathan Winneke has MS; UK: Northside halts tour after Warren Dermody’s heart attack; James Bourne quits Busted tour
GA pol Lanny Thomas quits campaign; ABC weatherman Marshall McPeek takes leave for chemotherapy; CA: Winnipeg city councillor Matt Allard missed 3 weeks of work; BR: footie Oscar retires at 34; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerApr 9 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Cancelations:
UNITED STATES
Goo Goo Dolls Cancel 3rd Consecutive Concert After Lead Singer Receives Serious Health Diagnosis
April 2, 2026
The Goo Goo Dolls are dealing with a major interruption to their Canadian tour, as lead singer John Rzeznik has recently fallen ill. The band has now canceled three concerts in a row, announcing on Thursday, April 2 that Rzeznik, 60, has been diagnosed with pneumonia. Fans are still hoping that the band will be able to play their upcoming shows scheduled throughout the rest of the month, including this weekend’s stop in London, Ontario.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s note – In May 2021, Johnny Rzeznik of the Goo Goo Dolls Performs For Healthcare Workers: https://www.facebook.com/musiciansoncall/videos/johnny-rzeznik-of-the-goo-goo-dolls-performs-for-healthcare-workers/4210218825687631/
Horse The Band’s Nathan Winneke Diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis, GoFundMe Started
March 26, 2026
Trabuco Canyon, CA – Earlier today, Horse The Band frontman Nathan Winneke [49] revealed that he’s been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) and as a result, he needs help covering his medical bills since he can’t work at the moment. As a result, it’s time for our community to do the right thing and break out our wallets to help an artist in need, as he’s since launched a GoFundMe page to help crowdfund his medical expenses.
District 53 Candidate Lanny Thomas Recovering After Medical Emergency; Opponent Pauses Campaign
March 18, 2026
Lanny Thomas [63], Republican candidate for Georgia Senate District 53, is recovering in the hospital after experiencing a sudden medical emergency, according to a statement from his family. Thomas underwent emergency surgery on Monday, his son Christian Thomas shared in a social media update. While the exact details of the medical issue have not been publicly released, the family confirmed that he is now in recovery. He also noted that his father remained committed to his campaign even in the hours leading up to the procedure. Thomas is currently running against Democratic candidate Jack Zibluk in the upcoming runoff election scheduled for April 7-now just 20 days away. Following the news, Zibluk announced he is temporarily suspending his campaign out of respect.
ABC 6 Chief Meteorologist Marshall McPeek takes leave for chemotherapy
April 4, 2026
COLUMBUS, Ohio – ABC 6 Chief Meteorologist Marshall McPeek [63] is leaving the station for 18 weeks while he undergoes chemotherapy, he announced April 3. “They promised that I will lose my hair. I will lose my eyebrows. I will be exhausted. I might even finally lose some weight. But importantly, I’m going to lose some cancer cells. And so that’s the best part,” McPeek said in a video posted to ABC 6’s website. He will undergo treatment at The Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute. He previously underwent surgery and radiation for a “very rare“ type of sarcoma, McPeek said. McPeek has been with ABC 6 and FOX28 since 2013. He was named chief meteorologist in 2018, according to FOX28.
Researcher’s note – Casts and crews on productions will have to show proof of COVID booster [sic] shots under updated guidelines: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/casts-and-crews-on-productions-will-have-to-show-proof-of-covid-booster-shoots-under-updated-guidelines/
CANADA
Medical episode forces St. Boniface councillor to miss nearly 3 weeks of work
March 30, 2026
A Winnipeg city councillor says he missed nearly three weeks of work following what he described as a medical emergency earlier this month. St. Boniface Coun. Matt Allard [44] recounted the episode in a Facebook post on Saturday, saying the incident occurred while he was on his way to work on March 3. “As some of you may be aware, I was away from the office March 3 to March 23 following a medical emergency I experienced while on my way to work March 3,” Allard wrote in the post. His post did not provide details about what the medical episode was. CBC News has asked Allard for further comment. His post said he is back in the office and resuming his work as the councillor for St. Boniface, a ward he has represented since 2014. In his post, Allard extended “deepest gratitude to the first responders whose incredible professionalism on-site made all the difference,” and to health-care professionals “who provided such exceptional care throughout my recovery.”
Researcher’s note – Members of Winnipeg city council’s executive policy committee have voted unanimously in support of a COVID-19 vaccine [sic] requirement for all councillors and their staff. The city’s executive policy committee is made up of Couns. Matt Allard, Jeff Browaty, Scott Gillingham, Cindy Gilroy and Brian Mayes, along with Bowman: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-councillors-vaccine-requirement-motion-1.6184698
BRAZIL
Ex-Chelsea star Oscar forced into early retirement at 34 after terrifying heart scare during Sao Paulo training
April 4, 2026
Former Chelsea and Brazil playmaker Oscar [dos Santos Emboaba Júnior] has been forced to hang up his boots at the age of 34 following a frightening medical emergency. The midfielder, who was recently playing for his boyhood club Sao Paulo, confirmed the news after a serious heart scare left him fighting for his life during a routine training session. Oscar’s decision stems from a harrowing incident that occurred during pre-season testing at the Sao Paulo training complex, where the midfielder lost consciousness while performing a stress test on a stationary bicycle. What was initially feared to be a standard fainting spell turned out to be far more grave, as medical staff had to perform emergency life-saving measures on the 34-year-old. Oscar opened up about the gravity of the situation in a video released by the club, revealing that the medical emergency was a matter of life and death. Regarding the incident, he stated: “My heart stopped for two minutes, two and a half minutes. I took the test, ended up fainting, my blood pressure kept dropping, and my heart was stopping. They performed cardiac massage. I only remember fainting.” The diagnosis was later confirmed as vasovagal syncope, a condition that has ultimately made it impossible for him to continue competing at the highest level of the sport. Oscar’s health has forced him to end his Sao Paulo contract, which was set to run until December 2027.
Researcher’s note – In December 2019, Oscar renewed his contract for a further 5 years with Shanghai Port Football Club: China is resuming visa processing for foreigners from dozens of countries, but only if they have been inoculated against Covid-19 with a Chinese-made vaccine [sic]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/china-to-allow-foreign-visitors-who-have-had-chinese-made-vaccine
UNITED KINGDOM
Iconic ‘Madchester’ band confirms singer in hospital after heart attack
March 18, 2026
Iconic ‘Madchester’ band Northside has announced one of its founding members, Warren Dermody [60, center], has suffered a heart attack. The band said in a statement it ‘regretfully’ meant they could no longer take part in a tour with the Happy Mondays. Posting to social media, Northside said it was ‘totally out of the blue and unexpected‘, but thankfully confirmed Warren, a writer and the band’s vocalist, was ‘recovering in hospital and being cared for by our wonderful NHS’. The band’s statement said: “Following last week’s announcement that we had to pull out of the weekend’s dates with Happy Mondays and The Farm, we are now in a position to give you a further update.”
Love Actually star forced to retire from acting after devastating dementia diagnosis and ‘series of strokes’
March 7, 2026
A Love Actually star has been forced to retire from acting after developing dementia following a series of strokes. Actor Junior Simpson [62] appeared in the beloved Christmas film as the DJ in the wedding scene – shooting to fame. A Go Fund Me account has been set up by Junior’s friend Peter Vincent to help Junior’s wife with the costs of living now the star can no longer work. Emma, Junior’s wife, recently contacted Manford’s to share some very difficult news. “Following a series of strokes, Junior has been diagnosed with vascular dementia and has had to retire from performing and writing.”
Rapper ‘pronounced dead on stage’ after passing out in harness shares update from hospital
March 21, 2026
One half of the senior TikTok rap duo Pete and Bas has shared a health update from his hospital bed after a scary incident where he ‘died on stage’. Pete Bowditch, who gained internet fame with his friend, collapsed on stage whilst being hoisted above it during a performance in Chicago, Illinois, on Monday night (March 16). The London-based performers, both in their 70s, stunned fans when video footage showed Bowditch hanging unconscious above the stage, with backup dancers below him. He seemed to pass out, dropping his microphone, and was left dangling from the ceiling as the backing track played on. However, it seems he’s on the mend, with Bowditch providing an update from his hospital bed, complete with a pint in a takeaway cup. In the clip, he can be heard stating, “Now, people, as you know, recently I was pronounced dead on stage. The doctors managed to bring me back. To celebrate that, we’re announcing a tour to America.”
James Bourne Plans “Major Surgery” to Prolong His Life After Six Months of Health Struggles
April 5, 2026
James Bourne [42] Breaks Six-Month Silence to Share Update on Life-Extending “Major Surgery”. The Busted singer had to pull out from the Busted vs McFly tour last September just one day before the first show as his bandmates called him at that time a “really fucking sick.” On Saturday, the artist broke the silence on social media by giving a positive report to his supporters via Instagram Story. “I’ve got a plan to undergo major surgery which should give me a longer life and perhaps a well enough state to come back to what I love most touring and making music, ” he stated. Not only James confessed that being “out of the game” is tough, but he also encouraged his fans by saying, “There is hope!” Although the update is serious, he has not mentioned what his illness is yet. Matt Willis, during Busted’s first show of their tour, explained bunch of reasons to the audience why James Bourne was absent. He said, “James Bourne is really fucking sick and we love him and we miss him. This is the first time ever that we are playing without him… However, we will do our best. Health is wealth.” Before the tour started in Birmingham, James had emotionally broken down on Instagram explaining that he was going to withdraw. He said that although he was really looking forward to the shows, last eight days from the time he wrote the post it was obvious that he was not well enough to perform. He also mentioned that there is still information about his condition that he does not have, however, he along with his fellow band members and management were in complete agreement that he should take the step to look after himself and receive medical treatment.
Legendary Rockers Forced To Postpone Tour as Band Member “Requires an Essential Operation”
April 3, 2026
With a legacy dating back to the 1960s, the rock band Yes took its love for music way beyond the streets of London. Preparing for the UK leg of their 2026 Fragile Tour, the band sadly announced it needed to postpone due to [Steve] Howe’s [78] health. “Yes and management extend their sincere gratitude for the understanding, patience, and continued support from their fans shown during this time, and they look forward to returning to the U.K. in 2027 for an unforgettable run of shows.” As of now, Yes isn’t taking 2026 off. With the band also scheduling shows in Japan and the United States, the group is working with venues to move the concerts to a later date.
NEW ZEALAND
Blues star Cameron Suafoa retires after terminal cancer diagnosis
April 2, 2026
Auckland – Blues rugby player Cameron Suafoa is retiring from professional rugby after being told his cancer has spread and is now terminal. Suafoa announced on Thursday that he would finish playing the game officially to begin a “different type of battle” involving chemotherapy treatment in the coming days. “I just wanted to give you a little bit of an update on my situation, and I’ve decided to finish playing rugby officially decided to retire, was told the unfortunate news that my cancer had spread and it was terminal now,” Suafoa said. The 26-year-old loose forward was first diagnosed with cancer in November 2023, when he was found to have a high-grade sarcoma of the connective tissue on his back.
All Blacks legend ‘still struggling’ after stroke, backs Western Springs plan while recovering at home
April 3, 2026
Auckland – Tuifa’asisina Sir Bryan Williams, former All Black and Ponsonby Rugby stalwart, was absent from Auckland Council’s governing body meeting this week where members voted 15-6 to back a plan to shift Western Springs Stadium towards a concert-focused venue, known as the Western Springs Bowl. Tuifa’asisina, 75, who suffered a stroke late last year, had been expected to take part in discussions but was unable to attend. His support for Ponsonby Rugby was instead delivered through a statement read during public input by club representative Peter Thorp.
GERMANY
Mayor Dieter Reiter seriously ill – “I ignored warning signals”
March 25, 2026
Munich’s mayor Dieter Reiter [68] is on sick leave until further notice. After losing the run-off election, it is now clear why he is not returning to the town hall. It is about a more serious cardiovascular disease. The mayor: “Unfortunately, I have ignored physical warning signals in recent weeks and months, have not cured illnesses. Unfortunately, I therefore had to seek medical treatment immediately after the election. The result is now a more serious disease of the cardiovascular system, which forces me to rest and recover for a longer period of time in addition to drug treatment.”…In the town hall it is said that Reiter is suffering from myocarditis – a so-called myocarditis that he has spread. This is an inflammation of the heart tissue, usually caused by viruses, often three to four weeks after a flu infection. If left untreated, it can be very dangerous.
Researcher’s note: Mayor Reiter strongly pushed the COVID “vaccine”, mandates, and excluding the unvaccinated from events: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/europe-goes-after-the-unvaccinated-to-fight-winter-virus-surge
FINLAND
Kalle Rovanpera Suspends Open-Wheel Career Due to Medical Issues
March 22, 2026
World Rally convert Kalle Rovanpera [25] has been forced to suspend his fledgling open-wheel career on medical advice. The Finn contested the Formula Regional Oceania Trophy during the winter months, scoring a podium in wet conditions, but had to withdraw from a Super Formula test due to suffering from vertigo. His condition has not improved and Toyota has made the decision to hit pause on his career.
ITALY
Teatro San Carlo: Illness for soprano Rosa Feola in the role of “Lucia di Lammermoor”
March 19, 2026
The warmest applause at the San Carlo was all for Rosa Feola [39] in the role of “Lucia di Lammermoor”. But, after the first act, the soprano had an illness and did not return to the stage: a problem reported, in the decidedly longer interval in the history of the opera, with the reading of a statement, before resuming the show anyway. But in the absence of a second cast and a singer who could take over, the famous “madness scene” was cut, sparking a vibrant audience reaction.
KENYA
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
This is what we mean by crookedness, high-crime bandits, quid pro quo, kick back schemes like what Corey and Noem ran; DHS, ICE contracts are a slush fund kickback scheme, payoff for all involved: “
Some major Trump donors are now reaping billions in ICE contracts”; people, these fuckers, these connected elite insider people to the Trump administration raping us the tax-payer, kickbacks
| Dr. Paul AlexanderApr 9 |
‘Since returning to the White House in 2025, President Donald Trump has ramped up immigration detention, with private contractors operating much of the required infrastructure – and reaping hundreds of millions of dollars in Immigration and Customs Enforcement contracts after making significant contributions to the president’s political operations.
Federal contracting data shows that a small group of private prison operators, charter airlines and security contractors dominated ICE’s largest contracts in 2025. Two private prison companies, the GEO Group and CoreCivic received $2.1 billion and $653.5 million in total obligations, respectively, while charter aviation companies including CSI Aviation ($1.1 billion) and Classic Air Charter ($800.2 million) also secured major contracts. Transportation contractor MVM Inc., which moves unaccompanied migrant children and families to detention facilities, received $1.1 billion.’
Top ICE contractors getting hundreds of millions and billions in tax payer and turns out are/were contributors donors to Trump’s re-election…
man this all stinks to high heavens.
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Shmeasefire
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 10:10 AM
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist of Rabobank
The trouble with ceasefires is that they often require both sides to agree to a set of terms, and then actually cease fire. However, if the set of terms are not comprehensively established and neither side can be held accountable to pause hostilities, then the so-called “ceasefire” loses all meaning.
Yesterday morning, Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth spoke about the Iran war ceasefire in a press conference. According to Hegseth, the US has achieved a “historic and overwhelming victory.” We have previously highlighted that in order for the US to achieve its stated goal of ending Iranian nuclear programs, regime change plays a fundamental role.
Hegseth has explicitly said that regime change has been achieved, echoing Trump who posted on social media that Iran “has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change!” However, the rhetoric out of the IRGC and the continued execution of Iranian protestors may indicate otherwise. Hegseth also said that Iran will “never have nuclear weapons” and that the Strait of Hormuz was indeed open for business.
At around 1:00pm ET yesterday, it was announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed amid dispute over ceasefire terms. When a ceasefire is typically negotiated, this includes some formal written agreement. While that may be the case with the current “ceasefire”, the public has yet to see one. A lack of clearly defined and agreed upon terms leaves room for confusion.
Israel conducted what was referred to as the “largest attack yet” on Hezbollah in Lebanon yesterday, with Israeli PM Netanyahu asserting that Lebanon and Hezbollah were not included in the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu also provided his view on the ceasefire, declaring that this ceasefire is not the end of the war, but rather a “station en route to achieving aims.”
The war certainly does not seem to be over, given Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again, citing Israel’s “breach.” While the ceasefire announcement laid out by Iran does clearly state that the ceasefire extends to “Lebanon and other regions” (which may call into question the Iranian attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and the Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline in the ceasefire aftermath), the statement from the US does not, and Trump backed Netanyahu’s interpretation that Hezbollah was still fair game.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz, of course, also breaches the US stipulations for the ceasefire, including the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” Crucially, US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that this also means Iran must operate the passage free of tolls or other duties.
EU players also released a statement to say that they “welcome the two-week ceasefire” and that their “Governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Administration seemed skeptical of the EU’s commitment with Leavitt saying that over the course of the past few weeks, “they [the EU and NATO] were tested, and they failed.”
But the EU and NATO may have an opportunity to redeem themselves in Trump’s eyes. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said on X that three clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal had been violated, these being the aforementioned “ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions,” as well as the “entry of an intruding drone into Iranian airspace,” and finally the “denial of Iran’s right to [uranium] enrichment.”
As Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi said on X yesterday, the ball is now in the US’ court. Everyone, but the US right now, is still lobbing missiles. So will the US hold up its commitment to halt offensive measures or put an official end to the ceasefire?
Markets are awaiting a response from the White House as well. Financial markets eagerly digested the ceasefire news from Tuesday in earnest, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.4% yesterday on the open, and trading around the $6,750-6,790 level all day, despite headline fury.
Global macro markets were a little more sensitive to (war) hawkish headlines. While US Treasury yields gapped lower at the open, 2 year Treasury yields spent the day creeping higher 6bp to 3.79% from open, and 10 year yields up 3bp to 4.29%. But the market that (surprisingly) barely moved yesterday was crude oil. Crude one month futures fell more than $16 to $94/bbl after the news of a ceasefire first broke, but the Strait reclosing and the fragility of the ceasefire exposed resulted in minimal price action, with crude closing at around $96/bbl.
These market moves may provide some insight into the US Administration’s logic in attempting this ceasefire in the first place. While one school of thought suggests that a ceasefire is a way to walk back Trump’s pugnacious rhetoric from Tuesday morning, the Administration may also be banking on the temporary market reprieve. We have suspected that prior so-called “TACO” trades from the Trump Administration were partially driven by negative market reactions, like the stress in US Treasuries after Liberation Day in April of 2025, or last summer when Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell.
A ceasefire announcement that is well-received by the market could soothe markets and inflationary expectations, as well as depress the price of oil—which it has done for the time being. Should the Trump Administration choose to ramp up offensive measures in two weeks (or even today), it’s possible that the jump in prices may be somewhat mitigated, as we’re bouncing off of a “suppressed” crude level of $94/bbl, as opposed to the $110/bbl level we were at earlier in the week. While the moving parts here are extremely complex and there is likely much more at play here than just “because markets,” the markets angle is still something to think about.
In other markets-related news, yesterday the Fed released the Minutes from the March 18 meeting. According to said Minutes, “most” FOMC board members said that a “protracted war could hit jobs” and “warrant rate cuts.” On the other hand, “many” board members said “inflation higher for longer could call for hikes.” These very insightful and directional comments maintained US OIS pricing expectations at no hikes nor cuts this year.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
Exxon Warns Of $6.5 Billion Hit From Iran War As Q1 Earnings Set To Print Slightly Below Consensus
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 06:00 PM
In an early clue how the Iran war will impact energy earnings, ExxonMobil warned of a $6.5bn hit to Q1 earnings from the Iran war but said the bulk of this was the result of unfavorable timing for its accounting of hedging contracts, which would be offset as underlying transactions were eventually completed. The US supermajor also said that global oil and gas production would be 6% lower in the first three months of the year than in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in which it holds ownership stakes.
According to Exxon’s 8K filed this morning, Goldman calculated that the company’s adjusted EPS at the mid-point came in at ~$1.80 vs. consensus closer to $1.90 and Q4 levels closer to $1.71. As shown in the chart below, there was sequential improvement in Upstream driven by higher liquids prices, sequential declines in Downstream due to higher maintenance and relatively flat performance in Chemicals.
Volume disruptions at Exxon’s production and refining businesses would deliver a $400mn to $800mn hit to earnings, while trading losses incurred because of a failure to deliver physical cargoes hedged with financial derivatives would cost another $600mn to $800mn, the company said in a statement.
Separately, the company provided a number of strategic updates, including: (1) the Permian likely producing at 1.8 mn boe/d in 2026, (2) first gas at Golden Pass having been achieved on March 30, and (3) that the Middle East production negatively impacted Q1 Upstream volumes by 6% compared to Q4 levels, with the overall Middle East portfolio representing 20% of Upstream production (albeit a lower level of segment earnings). As an aside, the quarterly comparison was challenging given disruptions in the Middle East, and large timing effects, the latter of which are excluded for the purposes of comparison.
Exxon has one of the largest exposures among western oil majors to the Middle East, according to the FT, which accounts for about 20% of its oil and gas production and 5% of its refining and chemical capacity.
The company’s assets in the region include stakes in LNG joint ventures with QatarEnergy that were damaged last month by Iranian attacks. Exxon said two gas liquefaction facilities in Qatar in which it has an ownership interest accounted for about 3% of its 2025 global oil and gas production.
“Public reports indicate the damage will take a prolonged period to repair. Pending an on-site evaluation, we are unable to comment,” the company said.
But the largest hit to Exxon’s first-quarter earnings, worth $3.5bn to $4.9bn, is linked to the surge in oil and gas prices caused by the Middle East conflict and the accounting treatment of financial derivatives it used to hedge prices while shipping products.
The company said the negative impact on its first-quarter earnings was a LIFO “timing effect” that would unwind over subsequent quarters and result in net positive profit once the underlying transactions covered by the hedges were completed.
“This quarter’s earnings include an unusually large, negative timing impact associated with our trading programme and the temporary earnings impacts that result from how we account for certain trades . . . These are sound trades and the profitability that will result from them will be material,” said Neil Hansen, Exxon’s CFO.
“Because we are using derivatives, we are required to account for them at month-end prices and reflect the resulting impact in earnings at the end of each quarter. This accounting often happens well before the sale of the associated physical product is complete. As noted, this earnings mismatch always results in a timing difference that eventually unwinds itself in periods of rising price.”
Exxon said that excluding the unfavorable timing effects that would reverse over time, earnings in the quarter would be higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Offsetting the timing effect loss was the surge in oil and gas prices following the start of the Middle East war on February 28 would deliver a $2.1bn to $2.9bn boost to first-quarter earnings.
Exxon shares fell 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday to $154.70, as traders reacted to a two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal.
END
Iran’s Tolling Regime On Hormuz Chokepoint Would Set “Dangerous Precedent,” IMO Warns
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 07:45 AM
The ceasefire deal in the six-week US-Iran conflict remained in doubt by late week, as Israel intensified its bombardment of Beirut, Tehran kept the Hormuz chokepoint closed, and negotiators prepared to meet on Friday even as both sides declared victory.
Reports of attacks on one of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports, alongside the continued closure of Hormuz, did little to reassure traders in the overnight session. Risk sentiment remained fragile on Thursday morning, with equities across Asia and Europe trading lower and U.S. equity futures subdued. Brent crude hovered around $98 per barrel.
With the Hormuz chokepoint now in continued focus, reports have circulated that Iran may demand cryptocurrency payments from shipping companies for oil tankers transiting this critical waterway.
Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect toll fees from tankers passing through the strait and inspect each vessel.
“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush.”
He said the transit toll for the critical waterway would be $1 per barrel of oil, adding, “Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given only a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.”
According to Arsenio Dominguez, head of the International Maritime Organization, imposing tolls at the maritime chokepoint would set a dangerous precedent and break with established international maritime norms, he told Bloomberg TV earlier.
“This is a dangerous precedent,” Dominguez said.
“What we cannot have is a different or parallel approach where another country introduces a mechanism that is not in line with international practice, and we don’t even know if it guarantees the safety of ships.”
He also said maritime traffic through the strait remains largely halted, while the IMO is working to restore the prewar transit rules based on the international traffic separation scheme.
END
THE USA dollar is faltering caused by the Petrodollar breakdown. This is good for gold and silver
VBL
The Petrodollar Breakdown is Real
by VBL
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 8:33
TL; DR
- The petrodollar loop is breaking down as the longstanding exchange of U.S. security for recycled Gulf dollar flows into Treasuries weakens
- Foreign central banks have shifted into sustained Treasury selling, with New York Fed custody holdings falling roughly $82B to $2.7T
- The Iran conflict is disrupting both sides of the system: importers are liquidating Treasuries for dollar liquidity, while exporters face constrained oil flows and reduced surplus generation
INTRO
Authored by GoldFix
After reading a Bloomberg opinion piece1 deconstructing the Petrodollar stresses currently manifesting from the war with Iran the following became apparent.
The longstanding financial arrangement in which the United States underwrote stability in the Middle East in exchange for Gulf states recycling dollar revenues into US Treasuries has fractured. What functioned for decades as a reinforcing loop between energy flows, dollar demand, and sovereign financing is now under strain.
The framework traces back to the 1974 agreement engineered under Henry Kissinger, in which Saudi Arabia priced oil in dollars and reinvested surpluses into US assets, primarily Treasuries. Other Gulf states followed, while the United States provided security guarantees and maintained the broader geopolitical order.
A Circular System of Energy and Capital
The system operated with internal consistency. Oil-importing nations paid in dollars; those dollars accumulated in Gulf economies; and surpluses were recycled into US government debt. This loop supported US borrowing conditions and reinforced the dollar’s reserve status.
That structure depended on two continuous processes: surplus generation through energy exports, and reinvestment into US assets. Both are now disrupted.
Fracture Point One: Importers Liquidate Treasuries
Following the escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, foreign central banks have shifted into sustained Treasury selling. Holdings at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined by roughly $82 billion over five consecutive weeks to $2.7 trillion, the lowest level since 2012.
At the same time, yields diverged from historical crisis behavior. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.9% to above 4.4% instead of falling under safe-haven demand.
“Foreign official sectors are selling US Treasury bonds.”
The mechanism reflects currency defense. Oil-importing economies such as Turkey, India, and Thailand face rising dollar-priced energy costs alongside weakening domestic currencies. Stabilization requires dollar liquidity, sourced through Treasury sales.
Dollar Demand Turns Defensive
Dollar demand remains present, yet its form has shifted. Central banks are accessing liquidity through liquidation rather than accumulation. Treasuries function as a funding tool under stress rather than a passive reserve asset. A system built on steady accumulation behaves differently when forced into periodic selling.
Fracture Point Two: Exporters Unable to Generate Surplus
Historically, higher oil prices increased Gulf revenues, reinforcing demand for dollar assets. This relationship has broken down. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has constrained exports across Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, with production cuts of roughly 10 million barrels per day.
Qatar’s declaration of force majeure on LNG exports following strikes on Ras Laffan further highlights the disruption.
Without export flows, surplus petrodollars do not form. The loop requires both income generation and reinvestment capacity. Both are impaired.
The Revenue Channel Is No Longer Dollar-Locked
This disruption intersects with a broader shift already underway. Middle East energy flows have increasingly oriented toward Asia, where settlement preferences are more flexible and, in some cases, non-dollar.
If export channels normalize under new conditions, marginal barrels may settle across multiple currencies. Incremental diversification reduces the structural bid for dollars without requiring full displacement.
The petrodollar system weakens at the margin, through allocation shifts rather than a single break
Balance Sheet Pressure Across Gulf Sovereigns
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE held roughly $300 billion in Treasuries as of January. These holdings now sit alongside declining revenues, elevated defense spending, and a reassessment of outward investment commitments.
Sovereign entities are reportedly reviewing force majeure clauses tied to prior investment pledges, including allocations to US assets.
Continues here
end
THIS CERTAINLY BREAKS THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT:
(ZEROHEDGE)
Iran To Allow No More Than 15 Vessels Per Day Through Hormuz: Russian Media
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 10:45 AM
Despite the positive development of a shaky US-Iran ceasefire holding, the reality is that Tehran still maintains de facto control over the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. A mere few vessels passed without incident on Wednesday, before Iran’s military closed the strait again, citing Israel’s massive attacks on Lebanon.
The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, “Iran’s approval system for ships granted safe passage – after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened.”
“Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said,” the AP report continues. “Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.”
There are currently few indicators revealing Iran’s intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel’s anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.
Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz.
While this has not been confirmed officially by the Islamic Republic or IRGC, the following comes via TASS on Thursday:
Under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source told TASS ahead of talks in Islamabad.
“Under the current ceasefire, fewer than 15 ships per day are permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This movement is strictly contingent upon Iran’s approval and the enforcement of a specific protocol. This new regulatory framework, operating under the supervision of the IRGC, has been officially communicated to regional parties. There will be no return to the pre-war status quo,” the source said.
The same source additionally indicated that “the unfreezing of Iran’s blocked assets is a critical executive guarantee that must be realized within this two-week timeframe.”
Also, Iran is demanding that the end of the war must be formalized in a resolution of the United Nations Security Council: “If the termination of the war is not codified into a UN Security Council resolution based on our stipulated terms, we are fully prepared to resume combat against the US and the Zionist regim —just as we have over the past 40 days, and with even greater intensity,” the source told TASS. Iran is further saying the US cannot build up more forces in the region during the two week ceasefire interim.
As for Iran’s protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s list outlines the following on where things stand:
- Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
- Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
- IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation
All of this means that the Iranian delegation in Pakistan will possess real leverage when it meets with the US side led by Vice President JD Vance this weekend. The White House has said talks are set to begin Saturday.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
my goodness!!
Liberals Advance Bill That Could Criminalize Quoting The Bible As Hate Speech
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Canada is barreling toward a chilling new reality where quoting certain Bible passages could be treated as a criminal hate speech offense.
Bill C-9, the so-called Combatting Hate Act, cleared the House of Commons on March 25 and now moves to the Senate.
Critics say the legislation guts a decades-old legal safeguard that protected sincere religious expression, handing prosecutors new tools to target Christians and other believers who dare reference holy texts on topics like sexuality.
? Canada just criminalized the Bible.
Bill C-9 has passed.
Quoting Scripture on marriage, sin, or God’s design for sexuality can now be prosecuted as “wilful promotion of hatred.”
Do you support free speech?
The bill, introduced last September by Liberal Justice Minister and Attorney General Sean Fraser, eliminates sections 319(3)(b) and 319(3.1)(b) of the Canadian Criminal Code. Those provisions had long stated that a person could not be convicted of hate speech if they “expressed or attempted to establish by an argument an opinion on a religious subject or an opinion based on a belief in a religious text.”
Quoting the Bible could be classified as hate speech under proposed Canada bill, lawmaker warns https://t.co/aegvBhdWQ1— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 7, 2026
Fraser and his Liberal allies insist the measure will not touch religious practice. “Canadians will always be able to pray, preach, teach, interpret scripture, and express religious belief in good faith, without fear of criminal sanction,” Fraser claimed on December 9.
Yet Conservative MP Andrew Lawton is not convinced. “Bill C-9 makes it easier for people of faith and others to be criminally charged because of views that other people take offense to,” he told Fox News Digital.
Lawton added that the legislation “weakens protections for freedom of expression and freedom of religion, especially with the removal of the longstanding religious defense, which has stipulated that religious beliefs and religious texts expressed in good faith cannot be seen as ‘hateful.’”
Liberal hate speech Bill C-9 has passed Canada’s parliament and is now with the senate.
John Carpay from the JCCF tells us how this bill could further erode free speech in Canada—particularly the right to practice religion.
Watch the full episode below ?? https://t.co/tYA8e7ctcL pic.twitter.com/rm8q87Nt5r— Jason James (@jasonjamesbnn) April 2, 2026
Liberal MP Marc Miller made the threat explicit during an October House justice committee hearing. “I don’t understand how the concept of good faith could be invoked if someone were literally invoking a passage from, in this case, the Bible, though there are other religious texts that say the same thing,” Miller said. He continued: “How do we somehow constitute this as being said in good faith? Clearly, there are situations in these texts where statements are hateful. They should not be used to invoke … or be a defense.”
Miller specifically cited passages in Leviticus, Deuteronomy, and Romans as examples.
The Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops fired back in a December 2025 letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney. “This narrowly framed exemption has served for many years as an essential safeguard to ensure that Canadians are not criminally prosecuted for their sincere, truth-seeking expression of beliefs made without animus and grounded in long-standing religious traditions,” the bishops wrote.
The Canadian Muslim Public Affairs Council warned the bill “poses disproportionate risks not only to marginalized and racialized communities, but to faith-based communities more broadly including Muslim, Christian, Hindu, Sikh, and Jewish communities.”
Supporters point to a reported 169 percent rise in hate crimes since 2018 and argue the changes target real threats like Nazi symbols or terrorist insignia, including those linked to groups such as the Proud Boys. But the removal of the religious-text defense has faith leaders across denominations fearing selective enforcement against traditional biblical teachings.
The bill also creates new hate-crime sentencing enhancements and makes “willful promotion of hatred” — including displaying designated terrorist symbols — punishable by up to two years in prison, though journalistic, educational, or artistic uses remain exempt.
While a handful of Jewish organizations back the legislation as a tool against antisemitism, the overwhelming response from Christian and Muslim advocacy groups has been fierce opposition.
This is the inevitable endpoint of leftist governance that treats disagreement on marriage, sexuality, or human nature as a public danger. Once governments decide certain truths are “hateful,” scripture itself becomes contraband. Canada’s experiment shows how quickly religious liberty evaporates when bureaucrats get to define good faith.
Americans watching this unfold have every reason to reject the same path. Free speech and the right to live and speak according to one’s faith are non-negotiable. The fight to preserve them isn’t abstract — it is happening right now on the northern border.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1675 UP 0.0006
USA/ YEN 159.00 UP 0.351 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3406 UP 0.0014 OR 14 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3855 UP 0.0004 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.83 PTS OR 0.72%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 140.62 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.27%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 140.62 PTS OR 0.54%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.83 PTS OR 0.72%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.27%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 298.42 PTS OR 0.53%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4726.00
silver:$73.92
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.59 PLUS 6 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 77.81 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 74 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7790 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.417 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.464 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.090 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 98.80 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.426% UP 12 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.383% UP 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.612 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.478 UP 9 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.814 UP 11 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0164 UP 7 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1690 UP 0.0032 OR 32 basis points
USA/Japan: 1598.95 UP 0.294 OR YEN IS DOWN 29 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8070 UP 10 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.473 UP 12 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 25 BASIS pts to 1.3824
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN 6.8348 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.8362
TURKISH LIRA: 44.59 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.293.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.893 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.783 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4756.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 74.60
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 5.40 PTS OR 0.05%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 227.64 PTS OR 1.14%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 18.07 PTS OR 0.22%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 27.40 PTS OR 0.15%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 236.44 PTS OR 0.50%
WTI Oil price 99.53 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 97.56 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.01 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 54 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.480 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.098 UP1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1707 UP 0.0048 OR 48 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3443 UP 0.0051 OR 51 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7570 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.427 UP 8 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.379 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.608 UP 0 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.99 UP 0.336 OR YEN DOWN 34 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3810 DOWN 0.0041 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 41 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 99.19
Brent OIL: 97.00
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.282
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 1 PTS to 4.900%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.781 DOWN 1/2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.462 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.081 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.54 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.58 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.42 UP 1 AND 12/100 roubles //
GOLD $4776.40. 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 75.90 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 276.70 UP .58%
NASDAQ 100 UP 180.55 PTS OR 0.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX 19.55 DOWN 1.49 PTS OR 7.08%
GLD: $ 437.91 UP 3.38 PTS OR 0.78%
SLV/ $68.40 DOWN 0.92 PTS OR OR 3.138%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 121.36 PTS OR 0.36%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Hormuz Hope Sparks Stocks Longest Win Streak In 6 Months; Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid
WRAP UP
Stocks bid and oil off highs on broader Middle East ceasefire hopes – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 04:14 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US and Iranian delegations to hold direct talks, starting Saturday; Trump reportedly asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon; Reports say Israel to scale back operations, yet Netanyahu remains firm on striking Hezbollah; Mixed reporting on whether Israel-Lebanon meeting to go ahead; Hezbollah MP says group rejects any direct talks between Lebanon and Israel; Strikes in the GCC continue; Operating activities halted at several Saudi energy facilities leads to reduction in oil output; IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines; Under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will reportedly allow no more than 15 ships per day through the Strait of Hormuz; Weak US 30yr auction
- COMING UP: Data: Japanese PPI (Mar), Chinese Inflation Report (Mar), German Inflation Final (Mar), Norwegian Inflation (Mar), Swedish GDP (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Apr). Events: BoK Policy Announcement. Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos. Supply: Australia, Italy. Credit Ratings: Moody’s on France; S&P on the UK; Scope Ratings on Hungary.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks were firmer on Thursday as markets extended the post-ceasefire risk-on tone. Oil prices were choppy, ultimately settling higher but well below pre-ceasefire levels. Crude was rallying in the morning, but weakness followed reports that US President Trump urged Israeli PM Netanyahu to de-escalate operations in Lebanon, with prices extending losses after Israel confirmed it had opened negotiations with Lebanon. However, oil later pared some of the declines as Netanyahu pushed back on calls for an immediate ceasefire, while reports of damage to Saudi infrastructure earlier in the week also lent support. The move in oil drove cross-asset price action, with Treasuries bid — particularly at the front-end — as easing inflation concerns supported a continued steepening of the curve. In FX, the dollar lagged on improved risk sentiment, while the yen underperformed amid higher oil prices. Antipodes outperformed, tracking equities higher. US data remained secondary to geopolitical developments. Initial jobless claims rose above expectations, while February PCE was broadly in line but remained elevated ahead of the expected March energy-driven inflation pickup. Personal income was soft and spending steady, while Q4 GDP was confirmed at 3.7%, with growth expected to slow in Q1 as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate remains at 1.3%. The 30-year auction was soft, marking the first tail since November, reinforcing the recent shift in demand dynamics towards the front-end of the curve. Despite the broader optimism around ceasefire developments, reports of explosions across multiple Middle Eastern countries later in the session highlight that geopolitical risks remain elevated.
US
JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims (w/e April 4) rose to 219k from 203k, above expectations of 210k, with the four-week average edging up to 209.5k (prev. 208k). The unadjusted data rose 16.6k to 203k. Seasonal factors had pointed to an increase of 1,828 W/W. Contributing to the unadjusted number, New Jersey (+5,332), Oregon (+2,726), California (+2,580) and Pennsylvania (+2,481) recorded the largest increases, while Texas (-1,442) and New York (-1,415) saw the biggest declines. The latest claims data provide no evidence that the Middle East war has yet had a notable impact on the labour market, and Oxford Economics does not view a one-week upside surprise as a signal of softening labour market conditions. Moving to continuing claims (w/e March 28), these fell to 1.794mln from 1.832mln, below the consensus of 1.840mln.
PCE (FEB): The February PCE is seen as stale because it came before the US-Iran war. Nonetheless, headline PCE rose 0.4% M/M, in line with expectations and up from 0.3% in January. That left the Y/Y rate at 2.8%, matching both expectations and the prior reading. Core measures also rose 0.4%, in line with forecasts and the prior month, while the Y/Y rate eased to 3.0% from 3.1%, also in line with forecasts. Overall, the report was broadly as expected, but headline inflation is certain to jump in March because of the spike in energy prices. It had already picked up in February to 0.4% from 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying price level before the shock. Looking at core inflation, which excludes energy and food, the dip to 3.0% will be welcome, but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. The WSJ’s Timiraos noted that core PCE was firm in February because of goods, with goods inflation rising 0.84%, the biggest increase since January 2022, while core goods prices rose 2.3% over 12 months. Elsewhere in the report, personal income fell 0.1% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%), while spending held at 0.4%, despite expectations for a rise to 0.5%. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the report showed consumer spending was already weak before the shock from higher petrol prices and will probably slow further in Q2, while the price data support the view that inflation was already picking up before petrol prices surged. Pantheon added, however, that the core PCE deflator has risen in February at an above-average pace in the past four years and that the increase was driven by some rises that are unlikely to be repeated.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED FLAT AT 111-07+
Treasury curve steepens on broader ceasefire plans. At settlement, 2-year −1.1bps at 3.781%, 3-year −1.3bps at 3.804%, 5-year −1.0bps at 3.915%, 7-year −0.7bps at 4.099%, 10-year −0.2bps at 4.293%, 20-year +0.2bps at 4.880%, 30-year +1.2bps at 4.898%,
THE DAY: Treasuries steepened with front-end yields leading the move lower as oil prices moved from highs on hopes of a broader ceasefire in the Middle East. Reports of progress in negotiations, including discussions between the US, Israel, and Lebanon, helped ease immediate supply concerns and drove crude prices lower, reducing inflation pressures. Albeit crude, it still settled green given the sharp weakness seen on Wednesday.
US data was largely secondary to geopolitical developments. Initial jobless claims rose above expectations, while February PCE was broadly in line, though still elevated ahead of the anticipated March energy-driven inflation pickup. Personal income was soft and spending steady, while Q4 GDP was confirmed at 3.7%, with growth expected to slow in Q1 as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate remains at 1.3%.
The 30-year auction was soft, marking the first tail since November. Notably, demand dynamics this week have reversed relative to March, with stronger participation in the front-end and weaker demand in the long-end, reinforcing the shift in investor positioning across the curve as we navigate through the situation in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, attention turns to CPI, though markets remain primarily driven by geopolitical developments, the report will be used to gauge the inflationary impact of the war so far.
SUPPLY
Overall, a soft 30-year auction. The US Treasury sold USD 22bln of bonds at a high yield of 4.876%, tailing the when issued by 0.5bps, a notable deterioration from March’s 0.7bps stop-through and the six-auction average 0.3bps stop-through.
The bid-to-cover fell to 2.39x from 2.45x, below the 2.42x average, reinforcing the weaker demand profile.
The breakdown showed a decline in direct demand to 24.2% from 27.2%, broadly in line with recent averages but pointing to softer participation from domestic real money accounts. Indirect demand edged up to 64.1% from 63.4%, although it remained below the 66% six-auction average.
Overall, the result suggests continued caution from domestic investors, while foreign demand remains relatively stable. The outcome is consistent with auctions seen this week, where demand appears to be more concentrated in the front-end, leaving longer-dated supply more vulnerable to softer demand. The reverse of what was seen in March.
Bills
- US to sell USD 77bln of 26-week bills and USD 89bln of 13-week bills on April 13th, to sell USD 70bln of 6-wk bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on April 14th; all to settle on April 16th.
- US sells 4-week bills at a high rate of 3.560%, B/C 3.28x; sells 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.575%, B/C 3.16x.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Money Market Pricing (D/D): April +1.8bps (prev. +1.8bps), June +0.6bps (prev. +1.8bps), July -0.7bps (prev. +1.3bps), Dec -8.7bps (prev. -4.7bps)
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.40bln (prev. 0.18bln) across 4 counterparties (prev. 4) on April 9th
- SOFR at 3.59% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 3.169tln (prev. USD 3.26tln) on April 8th
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 106bln (prev. USD 106bln) on April 8th
- Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support, 20-30year, max USD 2bln): Accepts USD 2bln of 36.47bln offers. Offer to cover 18.24x. Accepts 3 of 35 eligible securities.
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 2.18 HIGHER AT 89.93/BBL; BRENT (M6) SETTLED USD 1.17 HIGHER AT USD 95.92/BBL
The crude complex was firmer, paring some of Wednesday’s steep losses, as the US-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding for now. Benchmarks were higher throughout the session but choppy, with WTI (M6) trading between USD 88.16-92.89/bbl and Brent (M6) between USD 94.22-99.50/bbl. The focus remains on the details of the ceasefire agreement, with the sides apparently still apart, and Lebanon a key sticking point. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly instructed the cabinet on Wednesday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. In line with that, NBC, citing a US official, said Trump asked Netanyahu in a phone call on Wednesday to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon to help ensure the success of the Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters that Lebanon is pushing for a temporary ceasefire to allow talks with Israel and wants a ceasefire before such talks begin. On the Iranian side, a source said that under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will allow no more than 15 ships a day through the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of settlement, oil prices caught a bid as Netanyahu spoke, rejecting an immediate ceasefire ahead of talks with Lebanon. Also, Saudi State News agency reported operational activities had been halted at several energy facilities due to recent attacks – seeing oil settle off lows but still in the green. Looking ahead, US and Iranian delegations are due to hold direct talks in Islamabad aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin on Saturday.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.62% at 6,825, NDX +0.72% at 25,082, DJI +0.58% at 48,186, RUT +0.60% at 2,636
SECTORS: Energy -1.16%, Health -0.19%, Materials +0.10%, Financials +0.27%, Technology +0.38%, Real Estate +0.83%, Utilities +0.84%, Consumer Staples +0.88%, Communication Services +0.93%, Industrials +1.04%, Consumer Discretionary +2.46%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: European Closes: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.34% at 5,893, Dax 40 -1.35% at 23,755, FTSE 100 -0.05% at 10,603, CAC 40 -0.22% at 8,246, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 47,328, IBEX 35 -0.15% at 18,105, PSI +0.37% at 9,485, SMI +0.09% at 13,125, AEX +0.19% at 1,005.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Alcoa (AA) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
- Applied Digital (APLD) net loss widened from last year due to rising expenses & a charge tied to its cloud business.
- Caterpillar (CAT) CFO to retire, effective 1st Oct.
- Constellation Brands (STZ) withdrew FY28 outlook & pointed to subdued demand & ongoing uncertainty in op. environment.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) and Meta (META) announce USD 21bln expanded AI infrastructure agreement; CoreWeave also announced two senior notes offerings, totalling USD 4.25bln.
- Disney (DIS) planning to layoff as many as 1k employees in the coming weeks.
- Marvell Tech (MRVL) was upgraded at Barclays to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
- Zscaler (ZS) was downgraded at BTIG to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’.
- Sazerac reportedly approached Brown-Forman (BF.B) about a deal, according to WSJ citing sources. Interest comes as Pernod Ricard (RI FP) has been discussing a mostly stock deal with Brown-Forman.
FX
The dollar is broadly weaker, but off lows, as initial reports of diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon to allow for a broader ceasefire in the region were thwarted amid Netanyahu remaining firm in his push to strike Hezbollah. The day was heavy on headlines, sparking reactions, with the main takeaway being that talks are set in Washington between the two countries on Tuesday; however, both sides are at odds over whether firing can continue amid the talks. In the US morning, a ton of US data dropped, ultimately doing little to shift participants’ outlooks or price action. In-line Feb PCE and a downward revision to Q4 GDP will likely be pushed aside as March onwards offers a truer gauge of the economic impacts from the Middle East conflict. Initial claims jumped above expectations while continued claims dropped to yearly lows. DXY bottomed at 98.625 before bouncing to around 98.78.
G10 FX saw JPY underperformance return as higher crude prices weighed on the net importer. BoJ Governor Ueda said short and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative, adding that accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to a moderate increase in capex. USD/JPY now trades just above 159.00 from the Wednesday low of 157.888.
High-beta FX and liquid alternatives to USD continue to outperform, albeit coming off highs on said late-stage USD strength. Aside from geopolitical driving moves, currency-specific newsflow was generally light.
In EMs, the NBP kept its base rate unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. The central bank said it may intervene in the foreign exchange market and, in the near future, does not see a change in rates. EUR/PLN finished the day modestly lower.
USA DATA RELEASES
Savings Rate Slides As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Slowed In February (Ahead Of War)
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 08:45 AM
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) – rose 0.4% MoM in February (pre-war), in line with expectations, with YoY rising 3.0% (as expected – lowest since Dec), down from January’s +3.1%…
Source: Bloomberg
The YoY Core decline is coming off January’s highest level since March 2024, with Services cost inflation slowing notably…
The headline PCE also rose 0.4% MoM (as expected – the biggest MoM rise since Feb 2025), up 2.8% YoY (also as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, we saw a notable jump in non-durable goods prices…
Source: Bloomberg
The much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services Ex-Shelter rose 0.2% MoM with the YoY rise tumbling to +3.2% – in line with its lowest level since March 2021…
Under the hood, Recreation Services and Healthcare saw the largest deceleration MoM…
For those worried about the impact of crude oil’s recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears – somehow – that PCE’s Energy component has already front-run some of the move but there’s a lot more pain to come for March…
Source: Bloomberg
Higher prices were met with lower incomes (-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) and higher spending (+90.5% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
Income growth is slowing significantly while spending is accelerating…
Source: Bloomberg
Adjusted for inflation, real spending rose 2.5% YoY – the highest since Oct 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
After jumping from 3.9% to 4.5% in January, Americans’ savings rate dropped back to 4.0% in Feb (after another huge revision in late 2025), basically at the weakest level since Nov 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
So spending solid as incomes fell and prices are rising… but this is all pre-war, so a large pinch of salt is required.
END
Continuing Jobless Claims Tumble To 2-Year Lows
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 09:03 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 203k to 219k last week (higher than the expected 210k), but still hovering within the low-low range of the last four years…
Source: Bloomberg
New Jersey and Oregon saw the largest WoW rise in initial claims while Texas and New York saw the biggest decline…
But, while initial claims rose, continuing jobless claims tumbled to the lowest level since May 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Soft survey data continues to signal a stressed labor market, while hard claims data says – all clear…
Source: Bloomberg
The bottom line is the ‘no hire, no fire’ economy remains firmly in place with policy-makers holding their breath for March’s inflation data to make a decision.
Expectations for The Fed’s moves in 2026 currently price in 25% odds of a single 25bps rate-cut this year.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
NEW ORLEANS
S&P Slashes New Orleans’ Credit Rating On “Structurally Imbalanced Operations”
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 08:30 PM
New Orleans, home to Mardi Gras and muffulettas, has been governed by Democrats for decades, so it should come as little surprise that S&P Global Ratings has slashed the city’s obligation rating to the third-lowest level of investment grade and placed it on a negative outlook.
S&P Global Ratings cut New Orleans’ general obligation rating by one notch to BBB+ with a negative outlook, citing structurally imbalanced finances, shrinking reserves, and growing reliance on one-time desperate measures to meet cash needs.
“The downgrade and negative outlook reflect the city’s structurally imbalanced operations, declining reserves and liquidity, and need to rely on multiple one-time measures to meet short-term cash needs, including additional borrowing for operating liquidity,” S&P Global Ratings analysts Alex Louie and Sarah Sullivant wrote in the report.
The downgrade serves as a warning of worsening fiscal strain, with the city projecting a $160 million deficit in fiscal 2025 and continuing to rely on stopgap measures, including borrowing to maintain operating liquidity, tapping external funds, and maintaining hiring freezes and furloughs.
The analysts continued, “Despite these measures, we believe the city still faces substantial challenges in achieving those goals and has a history of management projections not meeting actual audited results.”
In February, Moody’s downgraded the city’s credit rating by two notches to the bottom of investment grade and warned investors about risks to future bond sales amid a budget crisis.
New Orleans’ rapidly deteriorating credit profile comes as no surprise, given that Democrats have governed the metro area for a generation.
Here is the list of the mayors:
- Helena Moreno, 2026 to present, Democrat
- LaToya Cantrell, 2018 to 2026, Democrat
- Mitch Landrieu, 2010 to 2018, Democrat
- Ray Nagin, 2002 to 2010, Democrat, after previously switching from the Republican Party
- Marc Morial, 1994 to 2002, Democrat
- Sidney Barthelemy, 1986 to 1994, Democrat
- Ernest N. Morial, 1978 to 1986, Democrat
- Moon Landrieu, 1970 to 1978, Democrat
S&P Global Ratings analysts noted that although the city expects balanced operations in 2027, “given the city’s significant budget and operational challenges, achieving structural balance could take longer.”
For some history, the last Republican mayor of New Orleans was Benjamin Flanders, who served from 1870 to 1872.
end
REAL ESTATE
trouble in USA office buildings rreal estate (COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACK SECURITIES) CRBS
“Shocking Levels Of Distress”: CMBS Delinquencies Unexpectedly Soar To COVID Highs
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 08:40 AM
With market focused on private credit as the next credit market crisis vortex, many have forgotten that CMBS, the asset class that was smashed in the aftermath of covid as hundreds of office buildings were suddenly left vacant, has been teetering on the edge for years. For some, it proved to be a lucrative bet as the “next big short” after various office-heavy CMBX tranches collapsed in 2020 and 2021. But due to the slow-burning nature of commercial real-estate deterioration, where data center REITs provided a solid offset to weakness elsewhere, credit markets eventually moved on to the next worst thing.
It may be time to reassess: according to the latest TREPP CMBS monthly report, March saw a surge in the delinquency rate, which jumped by 41bps to 7.55%, the highest in years, led by a surge in the lodging rate, a category which until now was not a source of concern.
TREPP states that the five largest newly delinquent loans accounted for just over $2 billion of the almost $5.1 billion in newly delinquent loans, including a West Coast hotel portfolio, a Midwest office loan, a Northeast retail center loan, a national hotel portfolio, and a Pacific Northwest office portfolio, which pushed the rate higher.
In addition, roughly 40% of the newly delinquent loans this month were considered performing matured balloon last month. Continuing the sideways delinquency trend as loans mature, go delinquent, cure, and become delinquent again.
Among all newly delinquent loans, non-performing matured balloon was the most common delinquency classification, consistent with prior months.
At the property-type level, four of the five major property type rates increased while one edged down slightly. Lodging posted the largest increase, jumping 137 basis points to 7.31%, the first time it has been above 7% since its recent April 2025 peak of 7.85%. Office rose 51 basis points to 11.71%, maintaining the elevated range established over the past year, but remaining below January 2026’s recent high of 12.34%. Retail increased 32 basis points to 6.62%, rising from February’s recent low of 6.30% but remaining below the higher readings observed in 2024 and early 2025, when that rate averaged 6.71%. Multifamily was also especially week, as the delinquency rate rose 30 basis points to 7.15%, pushing slightly above its prior high-water mark of 7.12% in October 2025, and well past its marks from one year ago of 5.44% and 1.84% two years ago. Industrial – a stable category which includes warehouse and data center REITs – dipped slightly to 0.65% from 0.67%, continuing to sit near the bottom of the major property-type delinquency spectrum.
And in an ominous twist, if loans past their maturity date but current on interest (classified as performing matured balloon) were included, the delinquency rate would register 9.07%, up 32 basis points from February. This figure sits 152 basis points above the headline rate of 7.55% and continues to highlight the role of maturities in overall CMBS performance. The seriously delinquent rate (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non‑performing balloons) also increased, rising to 7.29% (from 6.89%). The percentage of loan balance in the 30-day delinquent bucket is 0.26%, essentially flat versus February (0.25%).
In a well-timed report, the WSJ yesterday published a reminder that much of the battered US office market continues to drag along the bottom, and continues to hold a fire sale, featuring some buildings marked down by more than 90%.
Some striking examples:
- In Chicago, real-estate developer Marc Calabria bought a 485,000-square-foot office building for $4 million. The building sold for $68.1 million a decade ago.
- Developer Asher Luzzatto paid a mere $5.3 million for the Denver Energy Center, after a foreclosure process. The two-building complex sold for $176 million in 2013.
- Even the federal government’s landlord is getting in on the act. The General Services Administration last month sold a 940,000-square-foot building to a residential converter for $24 million, a tiny fraction of its value a few years ago.
Investors purchased 204 distressed office buildings nationwide last year, up from 133 sales in 2024, according to data firm MSCI. Sales of these properties, which were auctioned out of bankruptcies or sold through foreclosures and lender seizure, came to $5.2 billion. In the first two months of this year, sales volume of distressed offices was $808 million, up 24.5% from the same period last year, MSCI said.
The bottom line is this: we may be approaching the next commercial real estate crisis because much of the reserves that kept the sector semi-solvent for years, have run out. As the WSJ puts it, “landlords and their lenders held on to their office towers for years, hoping for a turnaround after Covid. Now, they are accepting enormous losses. Owners and creditors are capitulating to the reality that more employees are splitting their work time between home and office. They are also resigned to stubbornly higher interest rates, which lower property values and make it harder for buyers to borrow.”
“People who don’t know real estate would be shocked at the level of distress,” Luzzatto said.
Of course, not every office building goes for a few pennies on the dollar. These are mostly B-grade, or poorer-quality buildings, often in undesirable locations. And owners of high-end office towers in the best locations of New York City and the hottest parts of San Francisco are raising rents and selling buildings profitably (although pockets of weakness are appearing there too, now that AI is making a growing number of tech workers obsolete).
But most office sales reflect the sector’s steep decline. Even higher-quality properties on average have dropped about 35% in value from their peak, according to analytics firm Green Street.
Buyers, meanwhile, are picking up office towers in major U.S. cities for roughly the price of a three-bedroom condo unit in Manhattan. These distressed sales are paving the way for new owners to pursue redevelopment ideas that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Calabria in Chicago plans to convert the office building into an urban farm and education center. He is working with Farmzero, which will use grow lights and hydroponic farming techniques to produce millions of pounds a year of berries, tomatoes, lettuce, herbs and other vegetables.
“The buy-in at this distressed price allows us the opportunity to afford change,” Calabria said.
Rock-bottom prices are also accelerating the move to residential conversion. Developers who bought at steep discounts can now justify costly structural changes – such as carving out atriums or reconfiguring floor layouts – that would have been financially unworkable at higher valuations.
At the start of the year, more than 90,000 apartments nationwide were in the process of conversion nationwide, up 28% from a year earlier, according to data firm RentCafe. New York City’s obsolete buildings are leading the way, but tax breaks and other government incentives are helping spark similar projects in Chicago and Washington, D.C.
This reckoning follows years when office owners and their lenders avoided confronting the sector’s problems. Owners would inject more equity, while lenders extended loans in hopes of a rebound.
Now, with many concluding that values aren’t coming back, lenders are increasingly demanding repayment or selling the properties, a sign that the office market’s long slide that intensified during the pandemic is nearing a bottom.
“We’re six years from the shock of Covid,” said Jim Costello, an MSCI executive director. “But that’s how long it takes someone to capitulate and give up such a highly valued asset.”
The good news is that the threat of systemic risk remains low for now: many banks and other lenders are better positioned to take losses after spending the past few years shoring up their balance sheets and building reserves against troubled loans. Special servicers overseeing distressed office buildings financed through commercial mortgage-backed securities are also selling. The Chicago building being converted into an urban farm was sold by special servicer CW Asset Management, which said the low price was justified because the empty building’s taxes, utility bills and other costs were so high.
It isn’t just weak demand from remote work forcing down values. Owners must contend with the high cost of leasing up empty space -through hefty brokerage commissions and tenant incentives – and uncertainty about how AI could reshape office usage.
Sharp discounts are showing up in both downtown and suburban markets. For example, Newmark Group brokered the sale of five suburban Texas office buildings over the past two years at prices more than 50% lower than prepandemic values. Buyers demolished them to make way for higher-demand uses like industrial space.
Some of the big buyers of distressed office assets include Cross Ocean Partners, a credit-focused investment firm known for moving from one pocket of distress to another. It recently raised the first $300 million of a $750 million fund to buy distressed office assets—both debt and equity—in such markets as Minneapolis, Austin, Texas, and the Boston area.
The strategy centers on acquiring assets at steep discounts and underwriting the cash flow from existing tenants. Even if office demand remains weak, those in-place rents can generate a profit.
While institutional investors have largely pulled back from distress to focus on the strongest buildings in the most resilient markets, high-net-worth individuals are stepping in.
Hossein Fateh recently bought a 940,000-square-foot GSA building in Washington, D.C. A data-center investor, he made a fortune when Digital Realty paid $7.6 billion for DuPont Fabros Technology, which he co-founded.
Fateh is planning a residential conversion, adding a swimming pool or atriums in the middle of the floors to create windows. Such architectural hacks will help push the conversion cost into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
If the price wasn’t so low, “this deal wouldn’t work,” he said.
And with AI set to unleash the next big wave of office vacancy, coupled with banks throwing in the towel on cash-burning properties, many more such deals are emerging on the horizon.
END
Kimberley Clark/California
their plant just got wiped out! Arsonist Chamel Abdulkarim
“There Goes Your Inventory”: Disgruntled Worker Sets Fire To Million-Square-Foot Toilet Paper Warehouse
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 07:40 PM
Dramatic footage appears to show an act of industrial sabotage at a one-million-square-foot Kimberly-Clark distribution center in Ontario, California.
A third-party warehouse worker was arrested on suspicion of felony arson shortly after the devastating six-alarm fire on Tuesday morning, which destroyed all of the warehouse’s contents, including household paper products such as Kleenex and toilet paper.
Local media outlet Fox 11 Los Angeles said Ontario police arrested Chamel Abdulkarim, 29, an employee of a third-party distribution partner, on suspicion of felony arson.
Video circulating on X allegedly shows Abdulkarim torching pallets of household paper products while uttering the words, “All you had to do was pay us enough to live.”
In another scene, he said, “There goes your inventory.”
Do not worry, Kimberly-Clark and its warehouse operators are almost certainly taking note. One of the long-term consequences of sabotage and labor unrest is that it strengthens the case for faster automation. The downside of revolt will be faster automation in warehouses to mitigate incidents like these.
END
SMART INDIVUAL PASSES AWAY MURRAY STAHL
Texas Pacific Land Crashes After Largest Shareholder Dies
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 03:00 PM
Land-and-royalty company Texas Pacific Land Corp. crashed the most since early Covid after the head of its largest shareholder unexpectedly died.
Bloomberg reports that Murray Stahl, CEO of Horizon Kinetics and a TPL board member, died on Thursday, sending shares spiraling lower by 17% in late-afternoon trading.
This marked the largest intraday decline in the stock since early 2020.
Stahl was described as a longtime believer in TPL, one of the largest private landowners in Texas, with most of its acreage concentrated in the oil-rich Permian Basin of West Texas.
TPL generates revenue by owning land, collecting oil and gas royalties from activity on that land, and selling or managing water-related services tied to drilling and production.
“His firm, Horizon Kinetics, along with its predecessors, had been TPL’s largest shareholder for many decades. Murray believed in the Company when it was still a thinly-traded, little-known trust that simply owned some land in west Texas,” TPL CEO Ty Glover wrote in a press release.
Bloomberg data show that Horizon Kinetics is TPL’s largest shareholder, owning 10.3 million shares, or about 14.99% of the tradable shares outstanding.
The cause of death was not immediately released by the family or TPL’s CEO.
The plunge in TPL shares following the death of its largest shareholder likely reflects uncertainty about the company’s future direction, as well as the possibility that Horizon could eventually reduce its stake. The volatility may also result from TPL’s tight float and thin trading, which can amplify price swings when unexpected news hits.
END
I WILL REPORT ON THIS TOMORROW
Marc Faber Vs Brent Johnson On What’s After Iran War: Utopia Or Crash
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 09:25 AM
As the dust begins to settle from the latest escalation in the Iran conflict, markets are left to grapple with a more complicated question: what comes next? Is this the beginning of a reset toward stability, another leg up in markets, and lower inflation -or- are the early stages of a broader economic unraveling tied to supply shocks, currency stress, and geopolitical fragmentation? Not to mention… is the Straight of Hormuz even open? Reports are that Iran is only allowing passage after a hefty payment in either cryptocurrency or Chinese Yuan.
Tonight at 7pm ET, longtime market commentator Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber squares off against Brent Johnson, with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money moderating.
Faber is an OG dollar bear while Johnson is critical of the “US Empire is doomed to fail” crowd.
Nonetheless Johnson has warned, in a recent post on his research blog, that “rationing hits next. And the downstream effects…energy prices, manufacturing inputs, food prices…follow on a timeline that stretches months, not days.” He says consequences are largely baked in, as most ships take 10 to 45 days to reach their destination and are just leaving now.
“What’s actually happening right now is slower, quieter, and more consequential than anything in the financial press.”
Faber has consistently bashed paper money, in all its forms, as destined to fall to zero against the price of gold:
Where he and Johnson might agree is that it is unlikely for the Euro or the Japanese Yen to unseat the dollar. But could the Chinese Yuan or a basket currency put forth by BRICS? Especially if backed by gold (or advertised as such), might other countries begin making the switch?
Iran has long known the risks of dealing in U.S. dollar-denominated assets that may be frozen unilaterally. However, the country has also now learned the consequences of challenging U.S. (or perhaps more accurately in their case, Israel) regional hegemony. So, if more countries announced their intention to de-dollarize, would the American government strike such initiatives down by force a la Libya? And even if the U.S. tries, does it become too many impossible fires to put out? Global market forces could usher in a return to gold whether the Pentagon likes it or not.
Taggart, Faber, and Johnson will answer these questions tonight, here on the ZeroHedge homepage at 7pm ET.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 9, 2026 Issue 7717 | Independent View of the News |
| @realDonaldTrump: A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!… The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! (DJT Big Lie about regime/IRGC change!) There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to… “Iran begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it.” “Operation Epic Fury was a capital V Victory.” – Secretary of War Pete Hegseth https://x.com/JayneZirkle/status/2041879036696170646 @OANN: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says America’s victory over Iran delivers long-awaited justice for U.S. troops killed by Iranian-backed terror, adding that a ceasefire now opens the door for lasting peace, secured by strength and enforced under President Trump’s deal. https://x.com/OANN/status/2041894129463128154 The Euro media and Trump’s domestic enemies are proclaiming that Trump has lost the war with Iran. @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1: Iran’s first of its 10 point plan in English: A binding guarantee that the U.S. and allies will not strike Iran again. But in Iran’s Farsi version, a key phrase is tacked onto its first point namely the acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment…These will be tough negotiations, made even harder by Iran’s other non-starter demands. The ceasefire may only be a brief interlude between military conflicts. https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/2041780734050910510 Institute for National Security Studies’ (Israel) @citrinowicz: Ahead of the Islamabad Talks A. Negotiations will be difficult… Washington is acutely aware of the consequences of a breakdown: a major shock to global energy markets and highly problematic military options, ranging from strikes on civilian infrastructure to the risks of ground operations. In other words, both political incentives and strategic risks are pushing the U.S. toward avoiding collapse of the talks. B. The gaps between the parties remain significant. Iran’s leadership is unlikely to concede on its missile program, and certainly not on its right to enrich uranium. In any scenario involving full sanctions relief, the issue of the 60% 440 kg enriched uranium stockpile will likely become a central sticking point. C. The Strait of Hormuz issue is largely behind us. By effectively acknowledging Iran’s control over the strait, the U.S. has helped solidify this reality… D. While the current ceasefire is temporary, the costs of the war and, critically, the growing recognition in Washington that regime change is not achievable and that enriched uranium cannot be eliminated through military means, may soften the U.S. negotiating position… From Tehran’s perspective, they have already endured the worst. E. Iran’s economic situation is dire, worse than before the war. Economic relief is therefore a critical priority for Tehran… it is doubtful that Iran would trade core regime pillars for economic concessions F. One of Iran’s most significant achievements, especially given that it stepped back from insisting on a permanent ceasefire… is the apparent U.S. willingness to engage in negotiations based on Iran’s 10-point framework. G. This is notable because the gap between Iran’s 10 points and the administration’s 15-point framework remains substantial. The central question is whether Washington is prepared to move closer to Tehran’s positions, particularly on uranium enrichment and missile capabilities… H. Who Really Wants the Deal? It is important to recognize that the push for negotiations originated in Washington… it was the Trump administration that shaped, if not dictated, the proposal conveyed via Pakistan for a two-week ceasefire. This matters because it suggests that the administration is entering the talks with a strong desire to reach an agreement quickly. I. That does not mean Iran lacks interest, far from it, given its economic situation, but the sense of urgency appears to be more pronounced on the U.S. side. The bottom line is that current negotiations are not driven by optimism, but by a shared interest in avoiding further losses rather than securing victory. https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041793843247419471 WSJ: Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy Iran warned that its participation in Friday’s Islamabad talks hinges on a cease-fire in Lebanon and that it could reverse a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz… While Trump and his team proclaim ‘victory’ over Iran so they can cut and run, Israel must be different. Ceasefire Violations Undermine Truce, Pakistan Says – BBG 10:48 ET Israel stated that it had agreed to a ceasefire with Iran, but the deal did not include Lebanon (Hezbollah). @realDonaldTrump: A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!… (This is clearly a warning to China!) WSJ: Iran informed the mediators that it will not participate in the negotiation talks, or will reverse its decision to open the Strait of Hormuz, if Israel does not stop its attacks in Lebanon. @AJENews: Iran says it will withdraw from the US ceasefire agreement if Israel continues to violate it by attacking Lebanon. Source: Iran’s Tasnim news agency 10:47 ET Kuwait says oil facilities, power stations struck in Iranian drone attack 11:15 ET https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/8/iran-war-live-trump-announces-truce-tehran-agrees-safe-transit-in-hormuz Al Jazeera Arabic’s bureau chief in Lebanon says the scale of Israel’s attacks on Beirut reminds many Lebanese of Israel’s invasion of the city in 1982. @Attaqa0: Urgent. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon according to Fars News Agency 11:10 ET https://x.com/Attaqa0/status/2041896487408271517 Iran tells mediators U.S. talks dependent on a Lebanon ceasefire, warning they will continue to carry out strikes on regional countries, including Israel, if attacks on Lebanon and Iran by Israel continue: WSJ @NawafAlThani: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain have all come under Iranian attack since the ceasefire… Iran still has a chance to spare itself, and the region, another forever war. But if this is what Tehran calls giving peace a chance, it is not exactly a serious effort. @AJENews: Iran’s IRGC vows to ‘deliver regretful response’ if Israel doesn’t halt Lebanon attacks 12:30 ET US-Iran Ceasefire Claims Diverge as Hormuz Stays Blocked – BBG 11:35 ET Zina Rakhamilova @itsmezina__: The ceasefire, as it stands, is a complete abandonment of the Iranian people and a failure for the long-term security of Israelis and people across the Middle East. Trump was so furious with the reports of ceasefire breaches and US capitulations that he posted this: @realDonaldTrump: Numerous Agreements, Lists, and Letters are being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S.A. / Iran Negotiation, in many cases, they are total Fraudsters, Charlatans, and WORSE. They will be rapidly exposed after our Federal Investigation is completed. There is only one group of meaningful “POINTS” that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations. These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable and can easily be dispensed with. It’s very much like Fake News CNN last night, headlining a “source” that had no power or authority to write a Letter claiming great authority… Obviously, the reports, comments, and analysis of the ceasefire deal infuriated Trump to the point that he threatened or initiated a ‘Federal Investigation’ into the reports. Fox’s @TreyYingst: “There is an updated plan, Iran has already conceded to many of those old points,” a U.S. official told Fox News. The previous 10-point plan being circulated is not the latest framework, I’m told. (Team Trump attempts to assuage the outrage over going soft on Iran.) A WH Presser on the difference between Iran 10 and the US’s 15-point plans was scheduled for 13 ET. It began just before 13:30 ET. WH Press Sec Leavitt remarks:“Thanks to the unbelievable capabilities of America’s war fighters, the United States has achieved and exceeded those core military objectives in just 38 days.”“We crushed Iran’s ability to manufacture weapons used to kill Americans and terrorize the world. In just 38 days, we struck over 13,000 targets across Iran, destroying the vast majority of their ballistic missiles, launcher vehicles, and long range attack drones…”“The President’s maximum pressure… has led to Iran… negotiate…”“I’ve seen a lot of inaccurate coverage today from the media… The Iranians originally put forward a 10-point plan that was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable, and completely discarded. It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team.”Iran then put forward a more reasonable, condensed plan“The president’s redlines have not changed.”“The end of uranium enrichment in Iran, has not changed.”“This is a victory for the United States of America.”Reports that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz are false.VP Vance, Witkoff, & Kushner will participate in talks in Islamabad on Saturday morn, local time Netanyahu scheduled a press conference on the ceasefire (3:15 ET).“The ceasefire is not the end of the campaign; we have more goals to achieve—by agreement or by renewing the fighting.”“We have set the regime in Iran back many years.”“We are ready for war with Iran at any moment. Our finger is on the trigger. The ceasefire was coordinated with Israel. We were not notified in the last minute.” (Bibi vexed with DJT!)“We will achieve our goals in Iran through agreement or by renewing the war.”“We have destroyed Iran’s missile production capability.”“The ceasefire does not include Hezbollah.”Enriched uranium will be removed from Iran by agreement or by force. @Osinttechnical: Iran’s Foreign Minister says that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire, saying the agreement was “explicit.” “The U.S. must choose, ceasefire or continued war… The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitment” Iran Parliament Speaker @mb_ghalibaf: “… 3 clauses of this proposal have been violated so far: …ceasefire in Lebanon… intruding drone in Iran airspace… Denial of Iran’s right to enrichment… In such a situation, a ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2041943537386958858 Reuters: The UAE will seek clarification on the terms of the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement to ensure Tehran’s full commitment to a cessation of attacks on the region and “unconditional reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. The spokesperson stressed the need for a comprehensive approach that addresses Iranian threats, including Tehran’s nuclear and military capabilities and its proxies in the region. Traders ignored the beaucoup stories about the ceasefire collapsing or near collapse. We noted in recent missives that most traders were bullish and pined for a rally and were positioned for a rally. ESMs hit a daily high of 6847.25 (+190.50) at 7:32 ET. After falling to 6780.00 at 10:55 ET, ESMs marched to 6830.50 at 14:17 ET. After a drop to 6793.00 at 14:59 ET, ESMs rose to 6827.00 at 16 ET. NQMs hit a daily high or 25,257.00 (+886.00) at 8:07 ET. Meta Debuts First AI Model from Prized Superintelligence Group – BBG 12 ET (Meta +9.5% high) Intel +11.7% at peak on news that the chipmaker will work with Tesla and SpaceX on Terafab. @LibTearCreator1: An “unnamed” trader placed a $52M short on oil right before the peace agreement was announced. This person made $174M in 3 hours time. If they were a member of the administration or a family member, should they be allowed to do this? https://x.com/LibTearCreator1/status/2041918286049255927 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 17–18, 2026 Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated… The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the forecast as elevated considering the potential economic effects of developments in the Middle East, government policy changes, and the adoption of AI. Risks to the forecasts of employment and real GDP growth were seen as tilted to the downside. Risks to the inflation projection were viewed as a little more skewed to the upside than at the time of the January meeting. With inflation having remained above 2 percent since early 2021, along with the potential effects of Middle East developments, a salient risk was that inflation could prove to be more persistent than the staff anticipated… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm Positive aspects of previous session Equities soared; USMs rallied sharply; Oil and Gasoline plunged. Fangs went nuclear, led by Meta and Intel Negative aspects of previous session The markets ignored news that usurped the bullish narrative. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who is lying, Iran or the US? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 6772.20 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 6793.50; 6740.28 WH Press Sec Leavitt, citing Trump on NATO: “They were tested, and they failed.” “It’s quite sad that NATO turned their backs on the American people over the course of the last six weeks, when it’s the American people who have been funding their defense.” Trump to discuss possibility of withdrawing from NATO in meeting in a couple of hours with NATO’s secretary general Rutte. The US exit from NATO is contingent on congressional approval. Trump on Wed night: NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again. Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!! JD Vance: If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart over Lebanon, we think that would be dumb, but it’s their choice. https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/2041982466014019953 Today – Most traders were long – and got even longer on Tuesday night and Wednesday! Ergo, the risk is on the downside. To reiterate, most traders ignored the negative news on Wednesday. Today should be a quiet day ahead of the negotiations in Pakistan on Friday. ESMs are -10.75; NQMs are -55.50; USMs are – 1/32; gas & oil are up moderately at 20:25 ET. Expected Economic Data: Q4 GDP 0.7% q/q, Consumption 2.0%, GDP Price Index 3.8%, Core PCE Price Index 2.7%, Feb Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Spending 0.6%, PCE Price Index 0.4% m/m & 2.8% y/y, Core PCE Price Index 0.4% m/m & 3.0% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 210k, Continuing Claims 1.829m S&P Index 50-day MA: 6768; 100-day MA: 6804; 150-day MA: 6765; 200-day MA: 6655 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,037;100-day MA: 48,096; 150-day MA: 47,558; 200-day MA: 46,790 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope S&P 500 Index (6782.81 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6458.06 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6507.53 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6709.21 triggers a sell signal Former Army Employee and Top Secret Clearance Holder Arrested and Charged with Leaking Classified National Defense Information – The FBI arrested Courtney Williams, 40, of Wagram, North Carolina yesterday…. in connection with her alleged transmission of classified national defense information to individuals not authorized to receive it, including a journalist (the Journalist)… As alleged, between 2022 and 2025, Williams repeatedly communicated with the Journalist via telephone and text messages. During this period, Williams and the Journalist had over 10 hours of telephone calls and exchanged more than 180 messages… In addition to her disclosures to the Journalist, Williams also made unauthorized disclosures of national defense information via her social media accounts… https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-army-employee-and-top-secret-clearance-holder-arrested-and-charged-leaking-classified Haitian illegal immigrant bludgeons mother to death with hammer outside Florida gas station in broad daylight https://trib.al/WaUvj1T Crazed homeless man accused of slaughtering Iryna Zarutska on train found incompetent to stand trial (He faces separate federal charges.) https://trib.al/GsJMZC8 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“It’s Our Nature”: Colorado Doubles Down On New Assaults On The First Amendment
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Colorado’s tourism slogan, “it’s our nature,” has a menacing meaning for free speech advocates. Colorado is now arguably the most anti-free speech state in the union, pushing an array of measures attacking those with opposing social and political views. The irony is that the state has proved a bonanza for free speech with spectacular legal failures that reaffirmed rather than restricted the First Amendment. Now, the Democratic legislature and governor are back with new unconstitutional measures, including a requirement that lawyers not share information with federal immigration officials as a condition for filing with state courts.
Colorado legislators and judges have spent years attacking core free speech and associational rights. In the last election, the state attempted to strip President Donald Trump from the ballot with the support of a majority of its Democratic-controlled state supreme court. (The effort was later declared unconstitutional in a unanimous decision by the Supreme Court. Colorado could not even get any of the liberal justices to support its actions).
The state is responsible for the efforts to force business owners to create products celebrating same-sex marriages. That effort led to the Masterpiece Cake Shop case and then the 303 Creative case. Even after losing earlier efforts against Masterpiece Cake Shop owner Jack Phillips, the targeting of its owner continued for years. That litigation proved to be a tremendous victory for free speech.
Colorado has also been leading the fight to limit the speech and associational rights of professionals and parents on “conversion therapy.” Recently, that effort led to another massive loss before the Supreme Court in Chiles v. Salazar, resulting in a resounding 8-1 rejection of Colorado’s position. It could only secure the vote of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
After that near-unanimous ruling against the state, Colorado responded by doubling down with legislation to expose any counselors engaged in conversion therapy to heightened legal liability, including waiving any statute of limitations. That case could also result in legal challenges as Colorado continues to spend a fortune on seeking to curtail free speech rights.
Now, the state is defending a new public accommodation law, HB 25-1312, that defines “gender expression” to include “chosen name” and “how an individual chooses to be addressed.”
As in past Colorado cases, the state secured favorable rulings from district court judges. President Biden-nominated U.S. District Judge Regina Rodriguez refused to grant a preliminary injunction against the Colorado public accommodation law.
The Alliance Defending Freedom is appealing the matter to the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit on behalf of its clients, XX-XY Athletics and Born Again Used Books. Other appeals are also being brought in the matter.
At the same time, the state has moved forward on Senate Bill 25-276, which imposes a threshold condition for state e-filings that requires lawyers to certify annually “under penalty of perjury,” that they will not use “personal identifying information” from the system to help federal immigration enforcement.
The provision is vague on critical points in seeking to bar any information that might identify an individual or cooperating or assisting in federal enforcement. While the rule allows for compliance with federal law and court orders, it is leaves considerable ambiguity on the scope of the rule.
It is common for courts to consider specific motions to seal certain information, but such motions must state a legal basis for such withholding of information in a given case.
Lawyers have already objected to the compelled endorsement of the state’s anti-ICE policies as a condition to their representing their clients, as well as a bar on cooperating with federal authorities.
The law will likely face an immediate challenge not only from lawyers and clients but also from the federal government.
Denver Gazette investigative columnist Jimmy Sengenberger has been covering the story on limiting what is considered a public resource.
The Colorado Judicial Branch’s page on the law previously posted a statement that “In September 2025, some users may have briefly seen a certification requirement appear in the system.” It noted that the Judicial Department elected to take it down “for further internal and external discussion regarding the implementation of the new statutory requirements.” However, it announced implementation in March.
It stated that the condition would apply to any “third party” with access to the system – “certain attorneys, LLPs, and, in certain case types, pro se litigants”with access to information that is not “available to the public online, in person, or through a records request.”
It added “We recognize that some people may be frustrated by the requirements of this new legislation,” but insisted that the “judiciary is required to comply with the laws as enacted by the legislature and has worked hard to make the process as easy as possible.”
In my view, the law is facially unconstitutional and should be struck down. Regardless of the outcome on these challenges, Colorado appears hellbent on maintaining its dubious status as the most anti-free speech state in the union. Citizens will continue to subsidize this effort to defend laws compelling or censoring speech.
Colorado’s record is reminiscent of other blue jurisdictions like New York, Illinois, and D.C. in creating precedent in support of gun rights. In passing flagrantly unconstitutional gun control legislation, these Democratic legislators and governors proved a windfall for gun rights advocates in triggering a series of major Second Amendment victories, including New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen and Heller v. District of Columbia.
Colorado appears to be working to create the same legacy on the First Amendment. The state motto, “Nil Sine Numine” (Nothing without Providence), is fitting. For free speech advocates, Colorado has proven positively a godsend in its string of losses in seeking to gut the First Amendment.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”
END
CALIFORNIA
California is sinking fast!!
California Supreme Court Orders “Rogue” Sheriff To Pause Election Fraud Probe
Wednesday, Apr 08, 2026 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was ordered by the California Supreme Court on April 8 to halt his investigation into 2025 election fraud allegations so the judges can review the legal challenges that his probe faces.
Bianco, a Republican who is running for California governor, seized more than half a million 2025 election ballots after allegedly receiving complaints from locals.
Then, last month he seized an additional 1,000 boxes of election materials.
Local election officials told the county Board of Supervisors that his decision to take the ballots was unfounded.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, asked the court to step in and stop the investigation, saying that Bianco did not have authority to take the ballots.
Bianco seized another 426 boxes of ballots last week.
The top court ordered Bianco and his team to “pause the investigation into the November 2025 special election and preserve all seized items.”
“Today’s decision by the California Supreme Court reins in the destabilizing actions of a rogue Sheriff, prohibiting him from continuing this investigation while our litigation continues,” Bonta said in a statement.
The Epoch Times has contacted Bianco’s office for comment.
Bianco’s career in law enforcement extends 30 years.
In 2018 he was elected as the sheriff, coroner, and public administrator of Riverside County.
Bianco entered the crowded California gubernatorial race just over a year ago and edges behind fellow Republican, Steve Hilton, in the latest Berkeley IGS poll.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who may be eying a presidential bid as he exits his current seat in January 2027, applauded today’s ruling by the court.
“Today’s decision is a victory for democracy and the rule of law,” Newsom wrote in an X post on Wednesday.
“This rogue sheriff chased conspiracy theories, tried to undermine our elections, and got the ruling he deserved. Trump and MAGA’s election denialism is a cancer, a danger to our democracy, and it must be stopped.”
END
THIS OUGHT TO BE GOOD;
DOJ Opens Criminal Investigation Into J6 Committee Star Witness Cassidy Hutchinson
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has opened a criminal investigation into Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House staffer who made a number of false claims about President Donald Trump before the January 6 Committee in June 2022.
The probe, led by the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division under Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, began in early April 2026 after a criminal referral from Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.).
In December 2024, the House Administration’s Oversight Subcommittee, which is chaired by Loudermilk, released a 128-page interim report concluding that the J6 star witness had lied under oath and that the Select Committee knew her outrageous claims were false when they publicly promoted her.
In a December 17, 2024 press release, Loudermilk referred former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wy.) to the Department of Justice for an investigation into “potential criminal witness tampering based on the new information about her communication.”
Loudermilk accused Cheney of colluding with then-media darling Hutchinson without her attorney’s knowledge.
Hutchinson had testified that President Trump was aware that his supporters had weapons on the morning of January 6 but didn’t care because they weren’t there to hurt him.
She also falsely claimed that Trump tried to seize the wheel of the presidential limo and lunged at his former security detail when the Secret Service would not drive him to join protesters at the Capitol.
Loudermilk’s report concluded:
- President Trump did not attack his Secret Service Detail at any time on January 6.
- President Trump did not have intelligence indicating violence on the morning of January 6.
- Cassidy Hutchinson falsely claimed to have drafted a handwritten note for President Trump on January 6.
- Representative Cheney and Cassidy Hutchinson baselessly attempted to disbar Hutchinson’s former attorney.
Loudermilk’s report accused Cheney of “using the January 6 Select Committee as a tool to attack President Trump, at the cost of investigative integrity and Capitol security.”
As of now, the Justice Department has not announced any investigation into Cheney, and the report’s recommendations remain unacted upon by federal prosecutors.
Hutchinson’s allegations were so flimsy even anti-Trump Special Counsel Jack Smith didn’t believe her and refused to use her as a witness in his prosecution of Trump.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation will focus on whether she committed perjury during her “bombshell” televised testimony, particularly regarding claims that Trump encouraged violence on January 6 and attempted to seize the presidential limo’s steering wheel.
The assignment of the case to the Civil Rights Division is considered highly unusual, as perjury cases are typically handled by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C., which is run by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro.
The investigation will examine claims from other witnesses and internal testimony that contradict Hutchinson’s account, particularly the Secret Service’s denial of the limo incident.
During a news conference Tuesday, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that Trump has the “right” and “duty” to call for investigations into individuals he deems suspicious, including his former staffer turned anti-Trump fabulist.
END
* * *
GREG HUNTER..INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER
This is the Rally You Do Not Sell – Bill Holter
By Greg Hunter On April 8, 2026 In Media5 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) says even though silver did not have a physical delivery failure (yet), nothing has changed for the better. Derivatives are still counted in the quadrillions, and debt is still enormous and unpayable for just about every country on Earth. Mr. Gold says, “I can’t tell you from day to day what is going to come. All I can do is tell you what the end game is going to be. The endgame is gold and silver can’t bankrupt in a world that is in the process of bankrupting. Gold and silver are God’s money. They are physical assets. Fiat currencies are debt outstanding, and those are manmade and they will collapse under their own weight.”
Gold and silver had a rough couple of months. Silver was about cut in half, down from about $120 per ounce, and gold touched the 200-day moving average to about $4,000 an ounce, down from more than $5,500 an ounce. Mr. Gold called the bottom in both metals about 10 days ago. Now, both are rising again in price. Should people be afraid about buying gold and silver? Holter says, “No, I don’t think you should be afraid of gold and silver at all. They are your only exit out of the system. It’s your way to get your capital out of the system. As I said, the bottoms are in and, on this move, I can see gold running back to the old highs and silver going back to the old highs. Michael Oliver was Jim Sinclair’s go-to guy for technical analysis of gold and silver. Michael Oliver came out a week ago and said silver could be $300 per ounce to $500 per ounce by the end of the year. That is one hell of a call, but I could certainly see it happening.”
So, what happens if we have peace with Iran or it goes totally off the rails? Mr. Gold says, “I am going to give you an answer that is going to be a surprise to you. It does not matter. You have to look at the endgame. . .. This is the rally you do not sell, and the reason you do not sell is you might not be able to get back in. You have to look at the ultimate end of this game, and the ultimate end of this game is a complete and total collapse. What you want in a collapse of fiat currency is money that cannot bankrupt. By definition, that’s gold and silver. When you are in a situation where debt is imploding and defaulting, you want to own what cannot default. In the end, it will be a game of global default. Call it a game of musical chairs. You want to sitting in your chair holding your gold and holding your silver when everything else falls around you.”
There is much more in the 35-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as the endgame is locked in when the financial system begins a massive global default for 4.8.26.
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After the Interview:
Bill Holter’s website BillHolter.com keeps growing. There are lots of new free articles.
If you need to contact Bill Holter/Mr. Gold, his email is bholter@proton.me
END
SEE YOU TOMORROW
H
harveyorganblog.com 
