My website is now ready but we still have to add a little stuff to it. You can find my site at the following url:
http://www.harveyorganblog.com or www .harveyorgan.wordpress.com
I will continue to send the comex data down to my good friends at the Doctorsilvers website on a continual basis.
They provide the comex data. I also provide other pertinent data that may interest you. So if you wish you can view that part on my website.
Gold: $1175.20 down $21.40
Silver: $15.49 down $1.06
In the access market 5:15 pm
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering only 582 notices served for 58,200 oz. Silver comex registered 1614 notices for 8070,000 oz. Both are first day notices.
A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 246.59 tonnes for a loss of 57 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 3,106 contracts despite Wednesday’s no gain or loss in price . For the past year, we have been witnessing liquidation of contracts despite the fact that it cost nothing to roll. This makes no sense and it smacks of cash settlements which are totally illegal. Since I have been following comex data, I have never witnessed such a massive liquidation in both gold and silver these past three days. The total silver OI still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 153,876 contracts. The big December silver OI contract lowered by 9722 contracts down to 3,950 contracts. Today is first day notice.
In gold we had a huge loss in OI even though we saw a small fall in price of gold to the tune of $0.50 on Wednesday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 376,878 for a loss of 11,313 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 11,313 contracts. We witnessed a huge contraction of 26,234 contracts. However we do have a huge number of gold contracts standing for delivery.
TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY
In trading of gold and silver today, our two precious metals had a tough time in the Asian and European trading zone last night. Gold hit its high spot right at London’s first fixing of gold (2 am est), with our ancient metal of kings registering a fix of $1189.00. Gold then swooned to $1175.20 by comex closing time, its nadir for the day( at comex closing) and falling a further 8 dollars to finish at 1167.60 It is obvious that this being options expiry week for the OTC had a lot to do with trading today.
Silver followed gold to a T. By London’s first fix the price of silver had already reached it zenith at $16.17. From there it was all downhill with silver finishing the comex session at 15.49
In the access market it finished at $15.47.
Today, we had a big loss of 1.19 tonnes of gold Inventory at the GLD / inventory rests tonight at 717.63 tonnes.
In silver, we no change in silver inventory:
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 347.954 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.
OH NO!! THIS CANNOT BE SO!!!!!!
First: GOFO rates:
all rates move again much deeper into the negative and thus we have severe backwardation!!
Now, all the months of GOFO rates( one, two, three six month GOFO and one year) moved toward the negative with the mostly used 1 to 6 month rates deeper into the negative and thus in backwardation Even the one year rate is within a fraction of negativity. When the one year goes negative, we will have complete backwardation for one year out. On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates.
It looks to me like these rates even though negative are still fully manipulated.
London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
The backwardation in gold is incompatible with the raid on gold . It does not make any economic sense.
Even though the USA had a holiday yesterday, LBMA provided data from London and that is included in your report for today:
Nov 28 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
-49333.% 36333 -% 25667 -% – 10333 .% + 02667%
Nov 27 2014:
-.4% -.2900% -18333% -0725% +0425%
Nov 26 .2014:
1 Month Rate 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month Rate 1 yr rate
.-.3375% -.24% -.1625% -0525% +.0650%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest fell dramatically again by 11,313 contracts from 388,141 down to 376,828 with gold down by $0.50 on Wednesday (at the comex close). We are now into the big December contract month where on first day notice, the number of contracts standing for the gold metal registers 11,507 contracts or 1,150,700 oz . In tonnage this represents 35.79 tonnes which is extremely high. The non active January contract month rose by 116 contracts up to 604. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI rose to 236,754 contracts for a gain of 11,952 contracts. The estimated volume today was fair at 190,487 . The confirmed volume on Wednesday was fair at 208,846 considering the rolls. On this 1st day of notice in the December contract, we had only 582 notices filed for 58,200 oz despite the massive number of OI contracts standing.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell by 3,106 contracts from 156,982 down to 153,876 as silver was unchanged on Wednesday. The big December active contract month saw it’s OI fall by 9,722 contracts down to 3,950 contracts. Thus on first day notice 19,750,000 oz of silver are standing for delivery in this big delivery month of December. The estimated volume today was fair at 48,265. The confirmed volume on Wednesday was huge at 61,740. We also had 1614 notices filed today for 8,070,000 oz on first day notice.
December initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||29,332.310 oz (Brinks and Scotia)|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||199.90 oz (Brinks)|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||2732.75 oz (Scotia)|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||582 contracts(58,200 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||10,925 contracts (1,092,500 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||582 contracts (58,200 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 1 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 1 dealer deposits:
i) into Brinks: 199.90 oz
total dealer deposit: 199.90 oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals: (and strange accounting)
i) Out of Brinks: 396.410 oz
ii) Out of Scotia; 28,935.900 oz (900.02 kilobars???)
total withdrawal: 29,332.310 oz
we had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Scotia: 2732.75 oz
total customer deposits : 2732.75 oz
We had 2 adjustments:
i) Out ofHSBC:
37,791.984 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer at HSBC.
ii) Out of JPMorgan;
19,901.587 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of JPMorgan.
Total Dealer inventory: 812,914.37 oz or 25.28 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.928 million oz. (246.59) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 57 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 582 contracts of which 101 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 22 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (582) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (10,925) – the number of gold notices filed today (582) x 100 oz = the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.
Thus the initial standings:
582 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz + 10,925) OI for November – 582 (no of notices filed today)= 1,150,700 oz standing for the December contract month.35.79 tonnes)
This initiates the month of December for gold.
And now for silver
December silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||175,161.62 oz|
|No of oz served (contracts)||1614 contracts (8,700,000 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||2336 contracts (11,680,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||1614 contracts 8,070,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer withdrawals:
total customer withdrawal nil oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i) Into Delaware: 4,852.900 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 170,308.72 oz
total customer deposits: 175,161.620 oz
we had 2 adjustments
i) Out of CNT: 939,346.600 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account at CNT
ii) Out of HSBC: 20,403.29 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account at HSBC
Total dealer inventory: 65.197 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 177.008 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 1614 contracts or 8,070,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (1614 ) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (3950) minus (the number of notices filed today (1614) x 5,000 oz = the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.
Thus: 1614 contracts x 5000 oz + 3950) OI for the November contract month – 1614 (the number of notices filed today) = 19,750,000 oz of silver that will stand on this first day notice.
For those wishing to see data on the currencies and bourse closings you can see it on my site
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Nov 28.2014: a loss in inventory of 1.19 tonnes/tonnage 717.63 tonnes
Nov 26.2014: we lost 2.09 tonnes of gold heading to India and or China/inventory at 718.82 tonnes
Nov 25.2014/no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 720.91 tonnes
Nov 24.2015: no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 720.91 tonnes
Nov 21.2014: no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 720.91 tonnes
Nov 20.2014; no changes in tonnage of gold at the GLD/tonnage 720.91 tonnes
Nov 19.2014: we lost 2.1 tonnes of gold/Inventory back to 720.91 tonnes. No doubt physical gold is heading to China.
Nov 18.2014: no change in inventory/ Inventory level 723.01 tonnes
Nov 17.2014; we had a huge addition of 2.39 tonnes of gold added to the GLF inventory/inventory rests tonight at 723.01 tonnes. They may be running out of metal to give China!!!
Nov 14. we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 720.62 tonnes
nov 13. we lost another 2.05 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 720.62 tonnes
Nov 12.2014; we lost another 1.79 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 722.67 tonnes
This gold left the shores of England and landed in Shanghai.
Today, Nov 28 we lost 1.19 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD
inventory: 717.63 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 717.63 tonnes.
And now for silver:
Nov 28.2014: no change in inventory/347.954 million oz
Nov 26.2014; no change in inventory/347.954 million oz
Nov 25.14 we had a loss of 1.342 million oz from the SLV/inventory 347.954 million oz
Nov 24.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 349.296 million oz
Nov 21.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV
Inventory: 349.296 million oz
Nov 20.2014; no change/inventory 349.296 million oz
Nov 19.2014: a huge addition of silver inventory to the tune of 2.396 million oz/inventory 349.296 million oz
Nov 18.2014; no change in silver inventory 346.90 million oz
Nov 17.2014 .SLV inventories remain constant tonight at 346.90 million oz
Nov 14.2014; wow!! we had an addition of 2.012 million oz into the SLV/inventory at 346.900 million oz
Nov 13. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/344.888 million oz.
Nov 12.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests tonight at 344.888 million oz. And please note that gold leaves GLD/silver does not. Why? there is no physical silver at the SLV..just paper obligations.
Nov 11.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests tonight at 344.888 million oz.
Nov 28.2014 no change in inventory/347.954 million oz.
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now deeply into the positive to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 13.0% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 11.7% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.80%
( Nov 28/2014)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to positive 3.4% NAV (Nov 28/2014)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to negative -0.23% to NAV(Nov 28/2014)
Note: Sprott silver trust back hugely into positive territory at 3.4%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.23%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
COT report out on Monday.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Friday morning:
(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)
Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan – Possible Return to Guilder and Mark
The Dutch and German governments were preparing emergency plans for a return to their national currencies at the height of the euro crisis it has emerged. These plans remain in place.
The Dutch finance ministry prepared for a scenario in which the Netherlands could return to its former currency – the guilder. They hosted meetings with a team of legal, economic and foreign affairs experts to discuss the possibility of returning to the Dutch guilder in early 2012.
The Dutch finance minister during the period has confirmed that Germany also discussed such scenarios.
At the time the Euro was in crisis, Greece was on the verge of leaving or being pushed out of the Euro and the debt crisis was hitting Spain and Italy hard. The Greek prime minister Georgios Papandreou and his Italian counterpart Silvio Berlusconi had resigned and there were concerns that the eurozone debt crisis was spinning out of control – leading to contagion and the risk of a systemic collapse.
A TV documentary broke the story last Tuesday. The rumours were confirmed on Thursday by the current Dutch minister of finance, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, and the current President of the Eurogroup of finance ministers in a television interview which was covered by EU Observer and Bloomberg.
“It is true that [the ministry of] finance and the then government had also prepared themselves for the worst scenario”, said Dijsselbloem.
“Government leaders, including the Dutch government, have always said: we want to keep that eurozone together. But [the Dutch government] also looked at: what if that fails. And it prepared for that.”
While Dijsselbloem said there was no need to be “secretive” about the plans now, such discussions were shrouded in secrecy at the time to avoid spreading panic on the financial markets.
When asked about Germany, Dijsselbloem said he couldn’t say whether that country’s government had made similar preparations.
German Silver Deutsche Mark – (1951-1974)
However, Jan Kees de Jager, finance minister from February 2010 to November 2012, acknowledged that a team of legal experts, economists and foreign affairs specialists often met at his ministry on Fridays to discuss possible scenarios.
“The fact that in Europe multiple scenarios were discussed was something some countries found rather scary. They did not do that at all, strikingly enough”, said De Jager in the TV documentary.
“We were one of the few countries, together with Germany. We even had a team together that discussed scenarios, Germany-Netherlands.”
When the EU Observer requested confirmation from Germany, the German ministry of finance did not officially deny that it had drawn up similar plans, stating simply:
“We and our partners in the euro zone, including the Netherlands, were and still are determined to do everything possible to prevent a breakup of the eurozone.”
This is quite a revelation. At that time the German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble had said that the Euro could survive without Greece. Whether it could survive without the Dutch is another matter entirely.
A Euro without Holland and especially Germany is currently inconceivable. De Jager also states that other countries found the prospect of a Euro break-up frightening.
So much so that they buried their heads in the sand rather than deal with the situation facing them. It appears that no emergency contingency plans were made in the unfortunately named PIIGS nations – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.
One has to wonder if the plans would have been made public had a TV documentary not forced the Dutch government to confirm the claim.
It is interesting to note that it is these two countries, Germany and Netherlands, whose citizens have also been at the forefront of the gold repatriation movement currently sweeping across Europe – France’s second largest party entered the fray this week.
In a climate with a lack of faith in fiat currencies, any return to a purely fiat guilder or mark would be risky in the absence of the confidence that gold backing provides.
Despite the implication that secrecy is no longer necessary because Europe is over the worst we believe the Dutch repatriation of 20% of it’s sovereign gold from the U.S. indicates that the Dutch are still, wisely, preparing for the worst – whether that be a euro crisis or indeed a dollar crisis and an international monetary crisis.
Their stated reason for returning their 122 tonnes of gold to Netherland’s soil was to instil public confidence in the Dutch central bank.
The prospect of a Euro-break up is a frightening one. It would appear that most Eurozone nations are ill-prepared and indeed unprepared for.
As always we recommend investors act as their own central bank by taking delivery of bullion or keeping gold and silver in secure, allocated and segregated vaults in safer jurisdictions such as Switzerland and Singapore.
For investors and savers currently using the euro, it begs the important question do you have a euro failure contingency plan?
Indeed, for investors and savers internationally using other fiat currencies, it begs the important question do you have a currency failure contingency plan?
While the risks in peripheral European nations of reversion to their national currencies and currency devaluations have diminished – some risks still remain.
The risk is that individual national governments may elect to take this route rather than suffer deflationary economic collapse and Depressions. Alternatively, it could happen through contagion or a systemic event like the collapse of a large European bank, a la Lehman Brothers, that leads to a domino effect jettisoning a member state out of the monetary union.
It could also come about should the German people and politicians decide that the European monetary project is not worth saving or they decide that it cannot be saved and elect to return to the Deutsche mark.
All significantly indebted nations, so called PIIGS and non PIIGS such as Japan, the UK and the U.S. are at risk of currency devaluations.
Competitive currency devaluations or the debasement of currencies for competitive advantage and currency wars poses real risks to the long term stability and prosperity of all democracies in the world and to the finances and savings of people in all countries.
Get Breaking News and Updates On Gold Markets Here
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,184.50, EUR 950.80 and GBP 753.98 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,196.50, EUR 959.20 and GBP 758.96 per ounce.
In London, spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,184.44 in late morning trading. InSingapore, gold extended losses falling to a one-week low, on expectations that plunging oil prices could sap inflationary pressure, curbing the metal’s appeal as a hedge for traders.
Silver was down 1.1% at $16.04 an ounce, spot platinum was flat at $1,223.55 an ounce and spot palladium was up 0.1% at $809.50 an ounce.
The bullion market is awaiting the outcome of a referendum in Switzerland this Sunday that could force the Swiss National Bank to raise gold holdings to 20% of its forex reserves, repatriate its bullion, and undertake never to sell gold reserves.
The most recent opinion poll showed support among voters for the ‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ Initiative and the ‘yes’ side had slipped to 38% and the ‘no’ side are at 47%. A surprise ‘yes’ vote could prompt the Swiss central bank to buy about 1,500 tons of gold over the next five years. We believe the referendum will be closer than is currently expected and believe a “yes” vote is still possible.
Crude oil hit four-year lows near $70 a barrel, as OPEC refused to cut back production following a plunge of over 30% in oil prices since June.
Saudi Arabia blocked calls yesterday from Russia and poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna left the group’s output ceiling unchanged despite global oversupply, marking a major shift away from its long-standing policy of defending prices.
Gold in USD – 10 Years (Thomson Reuters)
In the Eurozone inflation slowed in November to match a five-year low, signalling the European Central Bank may expand its unprecedented ‘stimulus’ program. President Mario Draghi, who will lead a meeting of policy makers on December 4, says he wants to raise inflation “as fast as possible” and repeated yesterday that policy makers are united in their commitment to do more if needed.
Deutsche Bank Quits Precious Metals
Deutsche Bank is winding down its physical precious metals trading business, moving to further scale back its exposure to commodities after recent issues with financial regulators and alleged market manipulation.
The bank said in a statement that it “will retain some precious metals capability through its financial derivatives business.”
Increased regulatory scrutiny of how market benchmarks are set spurred an overhaul of precious metals fixings, price-setting rituals dating back a century for gold and silver, this year. Deutsche Bank said in January it would pull out of the daily gold and silver fixes. The bank was one of five gold and three silver members that participated in setting London fixings, benchmark rates used by mining companies, jewelers, refineries, mints and central banks to buy, sell and value bullion.
Indian and Chinese Demand Very Robust
India’s gold imports could climb to around 100 tonnes for a third straight month in November as dealers buy heavily for fear of curbs on overseas purchases, especially as the wedding season gets going.
China’s net gold imports from main conduit Hong Kong rose to 77.628 tonnes in October from 68.641 tonnes in September as the world’s biggest gold buyer saw strong demand for jewellery and bars. Total imports from Hong Kong to the mainland rose to 111.409 tonnes last month from 91.745 tonnes in September.
China is again heading for gold demand of some 2,000 metric tonnes in 2014 as seen in the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) data year to date.
Gold As Safe Haven In Recent Years and In Non Western World Today
Citi’s Willem Buiter attack piece on gold was one of the most unbalanced anti gold pieces of research that we have ever seen and we have seen a lot. To say it lacked nuance is an understatement. Indeed, it played very loose with the truth regarding gold indeed.
The timing of the piece by Citibanks Dutch economist is interesting indeed – coming in the week that the Dutch repatriated 122 tonnes of their gold from the Federal Reserve and the Swiss go to the polls in their ‘Gold Initiative’- and it wreaks of a lot of nervousness in the corridors of certain banks and central banks.
The Dutch Central statement this week regarding the importance of their gold reserves is worth noting:
“In addition to a more balanced division of the gold reserves…this may alsocontribute to a positive confidence effect with the public.”
An economist working in a bank argues with the reality of human nature, physical nature and 6,000 years of history and calls gold a 6,000 year bubble.
Of course the real bubble is in banks, stocks, bonds and our modern Ponzi financial and monetary system.
Gold will still be around and likely still protecting people when many of the banks of today have gone the way of the dodo.
The very anti- gold position of Buiter is similar to many today – many of whom have a very short term, myopic, “western centric” view of the world and only see it through they eyes of dollars, pounds and euros.
This limited view blinds them to the reality of gold as a store of wealth throughout history and again today.
Willem Buiter should go to Syria or Ukraine today and speak to people there. They would tell him about the value of gold.
We are surprised that gold is lower this week given the backdrop of the Swiss goldreferendum on Sunday, the Dutch repatriation of 122 tonnes of their gold this week and continuing very strong Russian, Indian and Chinese gold demand.
More short term weakness is possible and support is at $1,130/oz and $1,100/oz. We believe that gold is unlikely to go below that due to robust global demand but a close below $1,100/oz could lead to a sharp fall to the huge level of support which is the round number and near 50% retracement at $1,000/oz.
Smart money is accumulating bullion on the dip in anticipation of higher prices in 2015 and in the coming years.
We await the Swiss gold referendum with bated breath. It should make for interesting price movements Sunday night and Monday.
The following is huge/India removes its import/export restrictions on gold. The 10% tax remains but this should curb smuggling and increase the purchases of gold from India.
(courtesy zero hedge)
Gold Shortage, Worst In 21st Century, Sends 1Y GOFO To Lowest Ever… And India Just Made It Worse
While we have covered the aberration that is a negative gold GOFO rate previously and in extensive detail in this post, an abridged version of what negative GOFO means comes courtesy of Deutsche Bank’s recent discussion on what a successful Swiss gold referendum. To wit: “It is interesting to note that benchmark gold-dollar swap rates have recently traded negative, meaning investors are paying to borrow gold. This is unusual as gold is traditionally used as a source of collateral for cash financing…. [A] number of factors may play a role, such as excess dollar liquidity or an increased demand for collateral on the back of the global regulatory developments.” In short a gold shortage at the institutional, read commercial and central bank, level. And not just a shortage but the biggest shortage in history, judging by today’s latest plunge in the 1 Month GOFO which just dropped to -0.5% and , worse, 1 Year GOFO that just hit its lowest print in the 21st century, and is also about to go negative: something that has never happened before further suggesting the gold shortage could go on for a long, long time!
To be sure, GOFO has printed negative in the past, although the two most prominent historic plunges were due to acute events which promptly renormalized, and were not the result of what has now become a chronic gold collateral shortage via the swaps market.
The best known example of a complete collapse in the GOFO rate, is the September 1999 Washington Agreement on Gold, which was an imposed “cap” on gold sales (mostly European in the aftermath of Gordon Brown’s idiotic sale of UK’s gold) to the tune of 400 tons per year. The tangent of the Washington Agreement is quite interesting in its own right. Recall the words of Milling-Stanley from the 12th Nikkei Gold Conference:
“Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement…At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price—and thus on the value of their gold reserves—of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.
“Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals—and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions.”
Of course, this happened in a time long ago, when the primacy of Fractional reserve banking was sacrosanct, when the first Greenspan credit bubble (dot com) was yet to appear, and when barbarous relics were indeed a thing of the past, only to be proven oh so contemporary following not one, not two, but three subsequent cheap-credit bubbles which have vastly undermined the religious faith in fiath and central banking, sending the price of gold to all time highs as recently as 2011.
Another subsequent negative GOFO episode occurred in early 2001, which coincided with what has been rumored to be a speculative attack and reversal of the futures market. However, while pushing 1 month rates negative, 3 month rates remained well positive.
The only other time when both 1M and 3M GOFOs were both negative or almost so (3M touched on 0.05%) was in the aftermath of the AIG bailout following the Lehman collapse in November 2008, which reset the GOFO rate to just barely above 0% where it has traded for most of the time, at least until last summer when in a widely documented episode of negative GOFO rates, GOFO went negative in July of 2013 and remained in negative territory for over a month.
Which brings us to today, when not only is the 1 Month GOFO rate the most negative it has been since 2001, not only is 2 through 6 Month GOFO also negative, and in fact the 6 Month GOFO is now negative for the longest stretch in history clocking in at 11 consecutive days, but, strangest of all, the gold curve backwardation is about to become absolutely historic with 1 Year GOFO just a whisper away from hitting negative territory for the first time ever at 0.02667%.
But how is it possible that there is a shortage of gold when gold prices keep tumbling day after day, the skeptics will ask? Simple: the shortage involves gold “available” in the repo market, i.e., gold that already has been rehypothecated one ore more times. Keep in mind that central banks rarely if ever purchase gold outright in the open market, unlike Russia of course (and perhaps China), which has been engaging in an unprecedented gold buying spree over the past year. The rest of the commercial and central banks merely rely on shadow banking conduits and other repo channels to satisfy their gold needs, all of which merely demand the “presence” of synthetic, if not actual physical gold.
It is this synthetic “shadow” gold that is now actively disappearing from the system.Of course, if and when central banks were to tip their hand and reveal the unprecedented synthetic shortage to the physical market, the actual cleared market may well go bid only.
India shocks observers by scrapping gold import rule
One event that may stretch the already ridiculous disconnect between physical and swap-based gold, is the announcement earlier today by India which just scrapped a rule mandating traders to export 20 percent of all gold imported into the country, in a surprise move that could cut smuggling and raise legal shipments into the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal after China.
As Reuters reports, “along with a record duty of 10 percent, India introduced the so-called 80:20 import rule tying imports to exports of jewellery last year to bring down inbound shipments and narrow the current account deficit that had hit a record.
“It has been decided by the Government of India to withdraw the 20:80 scheme and restrictions placed on import of gold,” the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday, without giving a reason for the change in the rule.
The reason today’s announcement was stunning is that only days ago there were talks between officials of the Mumbai-based central bank and the finance ministry in New Delhi to bring back curbs on some trading houses following a surge in imports over the past few months.
Traders said before the decision on Friday that India’s gold imports could climb to around 100 tonnes for a third straight month in November as dealers bought heavily on fears of curbs on overseas purchases, especially as the wedding season picks up.
The government’s latest move came as a surprise even to some officials.
A policymaker associated with India’s gold import policy said the government instructed the RBI at 1830 local time on Friday to urgently change the rule. A notification was posted on the central bank’s website two hours later.
“We were not informed about the reason for scrapping this rule. The restrictions on who all can import who can’t are still valid,” said the policymaker, declining to be named as he is not authorised to talk to media.
And while those in control are unhappy that India’s relentless appetite for gold is about to return, and in the process slam the country’s current account deficit, at least one group is happy: “the rule change was a relief to jewellers facing difficulties in sourcing gold during the key festival and wedding season that started in October.”
Bachhraj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, said the 80:20 rule was not only encouraging smuggling but was also misused by many traders.
From getting human mules to swallow nuggets to hiding gold bars in dead cows, smugglers had raised their activity since the middle of last year after the import curbs.
Following the disbanding of the 80:20 rule, the government may place a monthly or yearly quota for traders, said Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst at consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.
“Quota is a more logical and simple way of monitoring and limiting gold imports,” Nambiath said.
Bottom line: one can again add India to the list of end-market where hundreds of tons of physical gold will end up, never to be heard from again.
And then there is of course the wildcard of the Swiss gold referendum on Sunday, where a “Yes” vote would lead to the immediate collapse of the gold price suppression mechanism as the swap-based gold shortage breaks through merely shadow conduits and finally makes its way to the real market. Which, of course, is why it will never be allowed to happen.
The Swiss initiative is needed to curb the SNB from destroying its currency
(courtesy GATA/Carlson/the London Guardian)
Curbing central banks is the point of the Swiss Gold Initiative
Ron Paul and Other Gold Bugs Keep Fingers Crossed for Swiss Vote that Could Add $50 to Price of Gold
By Debbie Carlson
The Guardian, London
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Swiss voters are likely to reject a November 30 referendum to force the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold, but you can’t crush a gold bug.
Die-hard gold fans — known as “gold bugs” — aren’t discouraged by the impending rejection of the Swiss people for their favorite metal. …
… The Swiss National Bank and the major Swiss political parties are against the measure. On Sunday SNB president Thomas Jordan said the referendum would restrict the flexibility of the bank to respond to crises.
Restricting the power of banks is the point, say the bugs.
“It is about time that the power of central banks is contained and regulated. The Swiss gold initiative, while not ideal, would be a starting point,” said Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom, Doom Report, a newsletter. …
Guillermo Barba, a Mexican independent analyst and blogger at Inteligencia Financiera Global, or Global Financial Intelligence, says the negative sentiment from politicians is influencing voters.
“It’s bad propaganda’s fault. Opponents are scaring voters. Swiss bureaucrats are acting like lackeys of the American establishment,” he said.
“The current economic, financial and monetary situation in the world is terrible. Debts keep growing and growing, all major central banks including the Fed are still printing money like crazy and keeping artificially low interest rates,” Barba said. He predicts “a global mess.”
“When that happens, believe me, you will want to have your gold as close to you as possible,” Barba said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
We now have the last two days figures from Shanghai silver and in the past two days 25.5 tonnes of silver have been removed or 819,000 oz. The Shanghai vaults have now only 93 tonnes or 2.93 million oz. They are exhausting supplies far greater than they are receiving metal. The silver game ends when Shanghai is out of metal and knocks on the door of the comex and demands its metal.
(courtesy Andy Hoffman/Miles Franklin/SRSRocco report)
From the desk of Andy Hoffman/Miles Franklin:
10,000 KGs of silver (tonnes) were withdrawn two days ago (10+ tonnes), and 15,447 yesterday (15.5 tonnes), per below.
Since this chart was published, stocks had risen from 81 tonnes to 118. Now, back down to 93 tonnes, worth a measly $48 million, after 21% of total inventory taken out in just two days. Hence, my http://blog.milesfranklin.com/just-50-million-of-silver-left-thats-it article from 10/08 back in play. What a joke.
Andrew C. Hoffman, CFA
I brought this to your attention on Tuesday, but it is worth repeating
(courtesy GATA/Larson/Bloomberg news)
HSBC, Goldman rigged platinum and palladium prices for years, suit says
By Erik Larson
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc were sued in New York over claims they conspired for eight years to manipulate prices for the precious metals platinum and palladium in what plaintiffs’ lawyers say is the first such class-action lawsuit in the U.S.
Standard Bank Group Ltd. and a metals unit of BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, were also sued. The four companies used inside information about client purchases and sale orders to profit from price movements for the metals used in products ranging from jewelry to cars, according to a complaint filed yesterday in Manhattan federal court.
Modern Settings LLC, a jeweler that buys precious metals and derivatives set on their prices, claims the companies “were privy to and shared confidential, non-public information about client purchase and sale orders that allowed them to glean information about the direction” of prices. …
… For the remainder of the report:
In the past century nations from across the globe stored their gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) for numerous reasons; (i) during World War II Germany was confiscating as much gold as they could from nations they occupied, surrounding nations anticipated by shipping their gold to the US; (ii) after World War II there was the threat of the USSR to seize sovereign gold reserves in the Cold War; (iii) under the Bretton Woods System (1944 -1971) it was agreed the US dollar was the world reserve currency, backed by gold. Here for it was convenient to store gold in New York for trade settlement, additionally dollars which were converted into gold were credited to FRBNY foreign gold accounts; (iiii) after the Bretton Woods system, when gold was officially removed from the monetary system, gold was often sold or leased by central banks, facilitated from their FRBNY accounts.
In the aftermath of the financial meltdown in 2008 central banks again realized the importance of gold as an anchor in the monetary system; European central banks stopped selling gold; Asian and South-American central banks increased official purchases, and central banks from all continents began to worry if storing gold abroad was wise when the global financial crisis evolved.
To illustrate this trend please read the next quote from Edmund Moy, former Director of the United States Mint (Fort Knox), published June 13, 2014:
Finally, more countries are repatriating their gold. For them, an audit is not enough. They would like their gold back. Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Mexico, Romania and Venezuela is a short list of countries that have requests into their custodians to transfer some or all their gold back to their countries.
Requests are also submitted at the FRBNY to kindly return the gold held in foreign accounts. There are rumors the US has sold a portion of this gold to underpin the US dollar hegemony in recent decades. The repatriation of 122.5 tonnes Dutch gold from New York, that recently was made public, could be explained along these lines. In any case, the Dutch are losing trust in the US as their custodian, I can see no other reason for them to repatriate. Wether this lack of trust is well-founded time will tell.
After the Dutch repatriation stunt was official, a theory-bomb exploded in the blogosphere about why, how and when the Dutch central bank (DNB) repatriated 122.5 tonnes from New York, while the German central bank (De Bundesbank, or BuBa) has been trying to repatriate 300 tonnes from New York since 2012 – but officially got back a mere 5 tonnes in 2013.
Bloomberg published an article on June 23, 2014, that tricked many to believe BuBa had stopped repatriating gold from the US. However, as I wrote on September 7, 2014, the article was misleading, BuBa never ceased its repatriation schedule.
One theory the Dutch are more successful in repatriating gold from the US, is because DNB is more willing to get it back than BuBa. There has been some public pressure in The Netherlands about repatriating gold, but it has been very little in my opinion; the initiative to repatriate came from DNB. In Germany the repatriation was pushed by the public campaign Repatriate Our Gold. Peter Boehringer, one of the founders of Repatriate Our Gold, told me BuBa was forced to start repatriating in 2012 by the campaign, but is actually slowing down the process, for whatever political reason. Keep in mind gold is a very political commodity. BuBa’s unwillingness is confirmed by their argument that repatriating takes a lot of time, they’ve acted as if it’s not possible to transport hundreds of tonnes across the Atlantic in a few months.
Nevertheless, I’ve written on September 7 the German repatriation was accelerating from the 5 tonnes they got back in 2013, to 59.5 tonnes in July 2014. Every month the FRBNY discloses how much Earmarked gold (the total of all foreign accounts) they store in Manhattan. As I wasn’t aware of any other country repatriating, I figured the 54.5 tonnes drop in Earmarked gold from January to July 2014 had to be gold heading for Germany.
The latest data suggests 77 tonnes have left the FRBNY vaults from January to September.
From another angle:
Of course the big question is, when did DNB start repatriating? This information would provide more insight in how much the Germans got back year to date, if any.
Because the Dutch repatriation partially took place in my back yard, DNB headquarters is a few blocks form where I live, it led me to do some field work. What came out must be seen as speculation based on little official information from DNB, but more from second hand sources at DNB.
I’ve been told a DNB delegation visited the FRBNY in 2013 to audit the Dutch gold, they found nothing was missing. This summer the preparations started for repatriating 122.5 tonnes, after which in October and November the gold was swiftly transported in multiple batches by airplane to The Netherlands. Eventually it was delivered in Amsterdam by armored trucks.
This would imply all FRBNY withdrawals before October could be from Germany, or any other country for that matter, and the Dutch withdrawals would only show up in October and November FRBNY data. So we’ll have to wait a few weeks before we know for sure.
Connecting The Dots
I found some more clues from DNB that tell me it they began to think about repatriating somewhere in 2012.
Early 2012: Dutch TV show Nieuwsuur covered Dutch official gold reserves – which were predominantly stored at the FRBNY. I edited a segment from this video and added subtitles, watch the video below. We can see Jim Rickards, Willem Middelkoop and Ewout Irrgang (Dutch politician) expressing their opinions to repatriate Dutch gold from the US. Governor of DNB, Klaas Knot, stated there was no reason for that. However, listen to Knot at 0:19:
We are regularly confronted with extraterritorial workings of laws from the US, mostly these laws are not happily received in Europe.
A few things are remarkable; (i) Knot states: “mostly these laws are not happily received in Europe”. Suggesting there was a European awareness, in January 2012, of the threat the US could confiscate foreign gold reserves held at the FRBNY. (ii) Rickards notes:
Countries such as The Netherlands, they should get their gold back, store it securely and than they are in a position to play in a new monetary system.
(iii) Watch the sidewalk in front of DNB’s main entrance at 0:09 (and on the picture below).
Mid 2012: BuBa announced its first schedule to repatriate 150 tonnes from New York.
Late 2012: DNB reinforced its headquarters. A new security barrier was constructed around the building. DNB confirmed to me this was done to prevent any cars or trucks from crashing the building. Let’s have a look at some pictures of before and after the reinforcement.
This is DNB on the map, the red line corresponds with the sidewalk shown on the picture above:
First DNB before, in 2010. Pictures from Google street view.
I think DNB strengthened its fortress in late 2012 because it knew it was going to repatriate and store a lot more gold in the near future. In hindsight Knot was lying in the interview when he was asked if he fully trusted the US as the custodian for the Dutch gold. Of course he couldn’t be honest in public, but the fact he said “…mostly these laws are not happily received in Europe”, and shortly hereafter Germany started repatriating and he began to reinforce his compound, tells me something was brewing.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in December 2012:
DNB’s history exposes that in situations where financial assets fall sharply in value, the public and the markets remain confident in gold.
From London’s Financial times last week, showing trouble as GOFO rates go negative:(courtesy London’s Financial times and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)Attachments areaPreview attachment FT Physical Gold shortage in London Vaults 15.11.14.pdfFT Physical Gold shortage in London Vaults 15.11.14.pdf844 KB
The Swiss vote on Sunday:
(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UKTelegraph)
Swiss vote provokes ‘6,000-year gold bubble’ attack ‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum is a primordial scream against a world of quantitative easing but would paralyze the Swiss National bank
The SNB warned that a ban on the gold sales would play havoc once the bank starts to shrink its balance sheet again Photo: Alamy
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
3:32PM GMT 27 Nov 2014
Five million Swiss voters will decide on Sunday whether to force the Swiss National Bank to repatriate all its gold from vaults in Britain and Canada, boost its holdings of bullion to 20pc of foreign reserves and then keep the metal forever.
The “Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum is a valiant attempt by Switzerland’s army of gold bugs – and the populist Swiss People’s party (SVP) – to lead the world back to the halcyon days of the international Gold Standard. It is a primordial scream against a quantitative easing and money creation a l’outrance by the leading central banks.
Yet there is a snag. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the biggest printer of them all in relative terms, far outstripping the Bank of Japan, let alone the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England – mere amateurs at this game.
The SNB has boosted its balance sheet to a colossal 83pc of GDP in a maniacal – but fully justified – effort to stop the Swiss franc appreciating beyond 1.20 to the euro, and to head off deflation. It vowed to print whatever is necessary to buy foreign bonds and defend the exchange rate. It has been true to its word since 2011.
At one stage it was mopping up half of the entire sovereign bond issuance of the eurozone each month, a scale of action that the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi can only dream of. During the eurozone debt crisis, Standard & Poor’s even accused the SNB of becoming a conduit for capital flight, via Switzerland, to German, Dutch and French bonds, and therefore indirectly exacerbating Euroland’s North-South rift…
Mike Kosares: Oil’s drop threatens credit crisis but not gold
2:30p ET Friday, November 28, 2014
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Oil’s price decline can’t be welcomed by central banks trying to engineer inflation, USAGold’s Mike Kosares writes today, and it even threatens to trigger another credit crisis. Kosares writes: “Those who are driving gold down today on the commodities exchanges forget that gold’s rise over the last several years (despite its interim downside correction) has been in response to disinflation, not inflation — and demand remains strong due to concerns about the stability of the financial system itself.”
Kosares’ commentary is headlined “Quick Take on Oil’s Collapse, Gold’s Drop, and Worries about an Oil-Driven Credit Collapse” and it’s posted at USAGold here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Central bankers’ love-hate gold relationship
Why are most central bankers so keen not to proceed with gold repatriation? What is the true picture for gold held in official vaults?
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 28 Nov 2014
LONDON (MINEWEB) –
One senses a bit of a momentum growing in the precious metals sector. Is this just wishful thinking from someone who is something of a long-term believer in gold and silver, or is there some substance behind the feeling? After all gold is having trouble making any kind of decisive move above $1,200, being knocked back every time it sticks its head above the 1,200 parapet. But then, despite the knockbacks, it still seems to be clinging on, just about, to the $1180s and 90s with the occasional foray down a few dollars.
On the negative side the Swiss gold referendum looks to be going to come up with a No vote after unprecedented lobbying and scaremongering from the Swiss establishment. Even so the fact that this referendum is even taking place reflects the obvious unease which is running through sectors of the European financial community regarding the true levels of physical gold held on their behalf in the US in particular. This suggests the beginnings of a growing lack of trust in the political and financial establishment. If this trust evaporates much further then government attempts to prop up their fiat currencies, which might otherwise be failing, will be called further into question as will government statistics purporting to show things are getting better the whole time while most of the people are not seeing the fruits of the so-called financial recovery.
Of the world’s largest holders of gold after the U.S.A. as far as official IMF statistics show, there are/have been moves, or calls, to bring home gold held in U.S. vaults by the No. 2 national holder, Germany, in France the no.4, Switzerland (No. 7) and The Netherlands (No.9) which has already quietly repatriated 122 tonnes from the U.S. while Venezuela (No.15) has also already succeeded in repatriating all its foreign-held gold holdings. A number of smaller nations have also been expressing disquiet. Meanwhile No. 5 (Russia) is increasing its gold reserves (held at home) month on month and China (No.6) is widely believed to have been expanding its gold reserves (also held at home) to a figure well above its official 1,054 tonnes level, but not reporting the increase to the IMF with the likely justification that this is being held in a separate account from its foreign reserve holdings. Indeed it is thought that China is targeting matching, or exceeding, the U.S.A.’s official 8,133.5 tonnes. Something is definitely going on!
If this disbelief in government and central bank statistics really takes off then the whole global financial house of cards could come crashing down. Perhaps that’s why the Bundesbank is trying to downplay the very slow repatriation of Germany’s gold. It is fearful that the demand will embarrass the U.S. There probably should be little doubt that the Fed’s vaults contain hugely more than enough physical gold to satisfy the German repatriation request, but perhaps the big question is who actually owns title to it. For whatever reason the rate of return of the German gold has been ridiculously slow, although it has speeded up this year once the conspiracy theories built around the repatriation of only 5 tonnes from the U.S. last year began to take hold. But the excuses offered by the Bundesbank for its gold’s extremely slow return to date would appear to have been pathetic to say the least, and totally beyond belief. It gives the impression that central bankers see the general population as stupid, able to be fobbed off with any kind of spurious excuse as they know best!
Now take a look at the Swiss gold referendum. Here again, the Swiss central bank – the SNB – and the Swiss political establishment have been coming up with drastic scaremongering statements in order to try to derail a move which would force the SNB to repatriate its overseas gold holdings and to maintain a minimum percentage of gold in its reserves. It’s not so much that the SNB and the country’s political leaders do not want to change their current policies – that is perhaps natural – but the tactics they are using to prevent this which smacks of desperation. The chances are that they will succeed in their efforts to scare the Swiss people into rejecting the proposal – the end perhaps justifying the means in their opinion. It is the lengthsto which the establishment is prepared to go to preserve the status quo which leaves a nasty taste.
The latest call for gold auditing and repatriation has come from France’s ultra right wing Front National leader, Marine le Pen, who opinion polls suggest would become President if a French Presidential election were to be held today. But this is not due for another two and a half years, which is an exceedingly long time in politics. See: Le Pen calls for audit of French gold reserves. One suspects the call will be rebuffed by the French central bank, but le Pen has an extremely strong following so this battle may be ongoing.
Why are all these calls for, at the very least, a much closer look at official gold holdings in U.S. Fed, Bank of England, and other official vaults coming to the fore? The world has seen an unprecedented recorded flow of physical gold eastwards in the past few years – at a level which has been shown to exceed new gold production. Indeed India and China alone appear to be taking in more physical gold through known avenues than the world’s miners are producing – and how much is flowing in through unreported routes, particularly if China is indeed building its gold reserves substantially? The question people are asking is where is all this physical gold coming from? One logical answer which some gold followers are seizing on is that it may well be coming from ‘official’ gold holdings leased out to banks (so it stays on the gold reserve books as it is due to be repaid) – hence the questions of title. Now if those who believe this is the case are correct, the volumes of leased gold are now so high that they cannot possibly be returned to the vaults as the physical supply is just not available. It has gone to firm hands in the East. Any attempt to return the gold with the lessees chasing what little physical gold is actually available would drive the price sky high and beyond – or so the theory goes.
The recent moves for gold repatriations suggest that there is at least a degree of belief in this theory among elements of the political spectrum. In addition the vehement opposition for auditing and/or return of gold by central bankers suggests that they are also scared that a run on holdings held in official vaults might expose a shortfall situation before leased gold can be brought (or bought) back. Interesting theory, and if the pressures for gold repatriations continue to grow then we might actually find out the truth. But be warned, the consequences of the truth, if it is as theorised above, could lead to western economic meltdown. Perhaps that is why central bankers have such a love-hate relationship with gold. They want it in their reserves, but at the same time disparage its role in global economics. Me thinks they speak with forked tongues!
Early Friday morning trading from Europe/Asia
1. Stocks mainly up on major Asian bourses with a lower yen value falling to 118.270
2 Nikkei up 211 points or 1.23%
3. Europe stocks all down /Euro rises/ USA dollar index up at 88.01.
3b Japan 10 year yield at .42% !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 117.70
3c Nikkei now above 17,000
3fOil: WTI 69.11 Brent: 72.90 /all eyes are focusing on oil prices. A drop to the mid 60′s would cause major defaults.
3g/ Gold down/yen down; yen well above 118 to the dollar/
3h/ Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion usa dollars worth of bonds per MONTH or $1.3 trillion
Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa/thus bond purchases of 26% of GDP
3i Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt (see Von Greyerz)
3j China set to offer stimulus to its struggling economy
3l: USA 30 year bond rate drops below 3.00%
3m Gold at $1183.00 dollars/ Silver: $16.03
3n Bond yields plummet in European periphery/Spain’s 10 year bond yield at 1.966% , the lowest in 200 years.
4. USA 10 yr treasury bond at 2.20% early this morning.
5. Details: Ransquawk, Bloomberg/Deutsceh bank Jim Reid
(courtesy zero hedge/your early morning trading from Asia and Europe)
Friday morning from Europe and Asia:
OPEC’s Crude Bloodbath Sends 10 Year To 2.20%, Energy Companies Tumble
The biggest, and most market-moving, event overnight continues to be yesterday’s shocking OPEC announcement, which is still reverberating across the energy space as markets largely ignore European and Japanese inflation data which is once again sliding back dangerously fast, or Italian unemployment which rose more than expected, and joined France in hitting a new record high. As a result European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the oil & gas and industrials sectors underperforming and telco and travel outperforming as oil continues its decline. EU inflation slowed in Nov. to 0.3%. Italian and Swedish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, Spanish the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. And while US equity futures are largely unchanged even as, or perhaps because, the world is screaming economic slowdown, bonds are finally getting the message with U.S. 10yr bond yields falling to only 2.20% as Japanese yields also decline.
Some more detail from RanSquawk:
European equities enter the North American crossover in negative territory albeit off their worst levels. The sole catalyst for price action thus far has been the fallout of yesterday’s decision by OPEC to refrain from altering their output ceiling. More specifically, the energy sector has naturally been substantially weighed on by the ramifications of yesterday, with the top 10 laggards in the Stoxx 600 all being from the sector, with the FTSE 100 feeling the squeeze with BP and shell notably lower, with the two Co.’s accounting for just over 12% of the index. Nonetheless, airliners have provided stocks with some modest reprieve as the lower energy prices will benefit the sector, although the implications for airliners are less substantial than those of oil producers. Elsewhere, in fixed income markets, Bunds opened at fresh contract highs, although now reside in relatively modest territory after failing to make a break above the 153.00 level. One thing to be aware of looking ahead, is that the lower energy prices are likely to filter through to global inflation prospects and thus could have further considerations on central bank policies, notably the ECB, with this also coming in the backdrop of the heightened expectations of a sovereign QE programme.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2067.1
- Stoxx 600 down 0.5% to 345.7
- US 10Yr yield down 5bps to 2.2%
- German 10Yr yield up 0bps to 0.7%
- MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 140.9
- Gold spot down 0.8% to $1181.5/oz
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg
- The OPEC oil-slide continues to cause further turmoil for oil producers and commodity currencies, while lower energy prices provide airline names with some reprieve.
- Looking ahead, today’s calendar is exceedingly thin with ECB’s Weidmann due on the speaker slate, although volumes are expected to be surprised by yesterday’s US Thanksgiving Holiday
- Treasuries head for weekly gain amid well-received 2Y and 5Y auctions and as oil prices slide after OPEC refrained from reducing output at meeting yesterday.
- OPEC’s decision to cede no ground to rival producers underscored the price war in the crude market and the challenge to U.S. shale drillers
- Euro-area inflation slowed in November to match a five-year low, prodding the ECB toward expanding its unprecedented stimulus program
- Draghi yesterday said the ECB is open to buying a wide variety of assets for further stimulus as German and Spanish inflation data highlighted the struggle to revive the euro-area economy
- David Cameron raised the prospect of Britain leaving the EU unless fellow leaders agree to let him restrict access to welfare payments for migrants
- Rating companies say defaults in China will spread as the central bank’s interest rate cut will do little to stop a wave of maturities from worsening record debt downgrades
- China asked state-owned companies to investigate risks associated with commodity trading, said people familiar with the matter, as the government seeks to avoid losses amid a price slump for raw materials
- Brazil’s economy expanded 0.1% in 3Q, less than forecast, as the world’s second biggest emerging market recovers from recession
- Brazil’s Finance Minister-designate Joaquim Levy pledged to adopt more rigorous fiscal discipline without providing details on how he will reduce the country’s debt levels
- Sovereign yields mostly lower. Asian stocks gain; European stocks, U.S. equity-index futures fall. Brent crude falls; WTI reached $67.75 yday, lowest since May 2010; gold and copper lower
In FX markets, the notable focus has been on commodity currencies with the NOK reaching a 5 year low against the EUR, while CAD has continued its OPEC-inspired losses, with USD/CAD steadily approaching the 1.1400 level; should we trade above 1.1400 in the pair then the 6th of November 2014 high comes in at 1.1443 to the upside. Furthermore, the RUB has also felt the squeeze of lower energy prices and earlier printed a fresh record low against the greenback, with the USD broadly stronger after breaking above the 88.00 level during Asia-Pacific trade, which subsequently saw USD/JPY break above 118.00 overnight. EUR was provided a modest uptick as Y/Y CPI came in-line with expectations at 0.3%, although was not as low as some participants had feared. Furthermore, today is the last trading day before the results of the Swiss national gold referendum with results due on Sunday.
In the energy complex, as to be expected, yesterday’s OPEC decision has continued to take centre-stage with energy prices continuing to plummet lower and seemingly unable to find a floor, with analysts at Barclay’s suggesting that Crude prices to drop another USD 10/bbl before new floor is discovered. Elsewhere in metals markets, a strong USD capped any potential pullback in prices and also weighed on metals with COMEX copper, spot gold and spot silver all slipping to their 1-week lows. Elsewhere, Spot iron ore prices rose to around USD 70/ton overnight, boosted by Dalian iron ore futures rising for their 3rd consecutive day as investors covered short positions
Thursday’s key events:
Thursday trading had the backdrop of the Vienna oil cartel meeting. The question of course of whether oil would settle at 60.00 dollars (continue pumping oil) vs 100$ oil if production is cut. During early morning trading they were leaning on no cuts to oil. This caused bond prices to soar and yields to plummet. The Germany 10 year bond reached an astronomically low .71% !!! However peripheral bond yields were a touch higher. It seems that Greece and its lenders are having disagreements on the deficit and they may not get the necessary funds to keep going. The Paris club wants to give them a 6 month extension but Greece must formally ask for it.
your Thursday review from Europe
(courtesy zero hedge)
Oil Slumps To 4 Year Low Ahead Of OPEC, Eurozone Yields New Record Lows: Summary Of Overnight Events
While the US takes the day off after another near-record low volume surge to a new all time high in the S&P500, a level which is now just 125 points away from Goldman’s year end target for 2016, the rest of the world will be patiently awaiting to see if oil’s next move, as a result of today’s OPEC meeting will be to $60 or to $100. For now at least the answer is the former (see more here from the WSJ), with Brent recently touching a fresh 4 year low in the mid-$75s, as WTI doesn’t fare much better and was down 2% at last check to $72.20 after touching a low of $71.89. It appears the prepared remarks by the OPEC president to the 166th conference have not eased fears that despite all the rhetoric OPEC will be unable to get all sides on the same story, even though the speech notes “ample supply, moderate demand and warns that “if falling price trend continues, “long-term sustainability of capacity expansion plans and investment projects may be put at risk.”
But while crude is crashing, Eurozone bonds continue to reach for fresh record high, with all peripheral bond yields down to new all time lows and the Germany 10 Year sliding as low as 0.711%, in its quest to catch up with the 10 Year JGB which at last check was trading just a fraction over 0.40%.
One outlier is Greece: what has been increasingly questioned by credit investors of late is the disbursement of Greece’s bailout programme. Following a marathon 24hour discussion in Paris, Greece and its EU/IMF lenders apparently failed to reconcile their differences over next year’s fiscal gap which is holding up the final review of the programme. Per the WSJ, international creditors are looking at extending Greece’s bailout program by up to 6 months but to get the extension the Greek government would have to formally request it by the end of next week. The discussions will move from Paris to Brussels ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on December 8th. There is also an emergency meeting this morning between Samaras and Vice President/Foreign Minister Venizelos. Greek as well as Spanish and Italian bonds were the clear underperformer yesterday amid the further strength in core government bond markets. As a result, this morning the 10yr Greek bond yield has jumped substantially and stood just shy of 8.50% at last check.
And with central banks now firmly in control of all assets, as bonds rise so do stocks, and European equities trade in the green across the board after steadily ebbing higher throughout the session with the DAX ascending towards the 10,000 handle; a level which hasn’t been reached since the 7th July.
As RanSquawk summarizes, macro newsflow has remained relatively light throughout the session, although this morning’s Eurozone data releases have continued to highlight a dreary picture of the area’s inflation prospects with both Spanish and German state CPI’s highlighting the deflationary pressures in Europe. More specifically, the prospect of falling inflation in the Euro-zone will likely re-ignite the premise of potential QE from the ECB in order to stimulate prices and safe guard the Euro-zone. As such bund futures have continued to edge higher touching fresh contract highs at 152.75, albeit in relatively light volume owning to the Thanksgiving holiday.
European shares rise with the real estate and chemicals sectors outperforming and oil & gas, retail underperforming. The German and Italian markets are the best- performing larger bourses. German jobless rate reaches record low, Brent crude drops to 4-year low, Spanish consumer prices drop more than forecast. China’s central bank refrained from selling repo agreements for first time since July, loosening monetary policy further. U.S. Thanksgiving holiday today.
Euronext says indexes not calculating due to technical problem.
The euro is weaker against the dollar. French 10yr bond yields fall; German yields decline. Brent and WTI crude fall as OPEC ministers start meeting in Vienna.
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 2071.4
- Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 347.4
- German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.71%
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 141.1
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1196/oz
In FX markets, EUR has remained under pressure ever since European participants came into the market following the aforementioned data releases. More specifically, EUR/USD consolidated its break below 1.2500 and EUR/GBP tested 0.7900 after EUR/USD broke out of its overnight range. Elsewhere, antipodean currencies have pulled away from their best levels seen overnight with NZD higher overnight following RBNZ data which showed the central bank did not intervene in Oct, while AUD was seen higher during Asia-Pacific trade following strong CapEx data.
WTI and Brent Crude futures continue to see selling pressure and currently reside at session lows with OPEC firmly looking set to maintain their production target with the formal announcement due later today. This comes after comments yesterday from Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi who said Persian Gulf countries have reached a consensus on output and will take a “unified position”, with the likely course of action being maintaining the current ceiling as reported by the WSJ on Tuesday. In metals markets, Overnight in the precious metals, notable weakness was observed across the complex with spot gold falling below yesterday’s lows (down as much as 2%), platinum declining by 1.1% and silver tumbling 2%, after breaking back below the 50% fib retracement level of the October sell-off seen at USD 16.435. Nonetheless, a bulk of these losses were pared heading into the European open amid no fundamental news and light volumes with the US closed for Thanksgiving.
* * *
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the summary of overnight events
Happy Thanksgiving to our US readers. It’s likely to be a quiet day but we do have an important OPEC meeting to look forward to. As we mentioned in yesterdays EMR, DB’s Michael Lewis believes that oil fundamentals are currently suggesting that a coordinated cut in OPEC supply is inevitable based on supply and demand dynamics, although uncertainty centres on the timing and whether this turns out to be coordinated or not. Oil came under further pressure yesterday with WTI (-0.54%) and Brent (-0.74%) closing at $73.69 and $77.75 respectively at the end of NY trading before sliding further this morning. A Gulf OPEC delegate apparently told Reuters that the GCC had reached a consensus not to cut oil output. Three OPEC delegates also apparently told Reuters they believed OPEC was unlikely to take any action today. Indeed there seems to be different views amongst top oil producers. Venezuela and Iraq are calling for production cuts. Rosneft has said that it will not reduce output even if oil falls to US$60. Iran’s oil minister said his position on oil is close to that of Saudi Arabia’s. Saudi’s oil minister was quoted as having said that ‘the market will stabilise itself eventually’ signaling little willingness to reduce production. The impact of lower oil is also starting to feed through the banking system with FT overnight reported that Wells Fargo and Barclays now face potential losses on a US$850m bridge loan to help fund the merger of two US based oil companies. Anyways the OPEC meeting will start at 9.30CET and a live webcast streaming is available on the OPEC website for those interested in the proceedings.
Away from Oil one of the key data prints today will be inflation stats from Germany ahead of the euroland CPI tomorrow. Our European economics team sees the risks of this week’s November CPI prints skewed to the upside, especially in Germany. They expect Germany’s yoy inflation to remain broadly unchanged from October. Whilst energy prices are expected to be a drag on headline inflation, our colleagues think the food inflation outlook is more uncertain in that unprocessed food inflation has started to normalise and services inflation has been trending broadly sideways. Overall this could lead to a temporary bounce but overall the risks to the medium term inflation outlook are still on the downside and given the fall in oil they see the risk of European inflation reaching a new low of 0.2% yoy in December. Inflation data aside, Draghi’s speech at a seminar organised by the Bank of Finland at 11.30am UKT is probably another key event to watch. Draghi is expected to talk about the European economy at the University of Helsinki after which there will be a Q&A session with the audience.
Staying on European affairs, we’ll briefly highlight more on European Commission President Juncker’s Investment plan for Europe. The long awaited plan to boost investment in the EU was presented to European Parliament yesterday and the focus was on the creation of a new institution called the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI). The EFSI is to be funded using existing resources – EUR 5bn from the EIB and EUR 16bn of EU budget guarantees. Through leverage and co-financing this aims at mobilising a total of EUR315bn of investment into long-term projects and SME and mid-cap investment over 2015-17. The key differences to existing activities (EIB and EIF) are that the EFSI will increase leverage of the EU budget funds, will invest in riskier projects (providing subordinated debt and equity) and will come with technical assistance to facilitate private investment. Our European economists see the plan as a step in the right direction but they remain doubtful that this will represent a successful paradigm shift. Particularly they think credibility of the plan will be questioned but more importantly no new commitment of resources has also been announced so much still hinges on private sector financing.
What has been increasingly questioned by credit investors of late is the disbursement of Greece’s bailout programme. Following a marathon 24hour discussion in Paris, Greece and its EU/IMF lenders apparently failed to reconcile their differences over next year’s fiscal gap which is holding up the final review of the programme. Per the WSJ, international creditors are looking at extending Greece’s bailout program by up to 6 months but to get the extension the Greek government would have to formally request it by the end of next week. The discussions will move from Paris to Brussels ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on December 8th. There is also an emergency meeting this morning between Samaras and Vice President/Foreign Minister Venizelos. Greek as well as Spanish and Italian bonds were the clear underperformer yesterday amid the further strength in core government bond markets.
Indeed the 10yr Greek bond yield rose by 29bps to 8.059% whereas yields in Italy and Spain also rose 2bp and 5bp respectively. 10yr bunds, OATs and Gilts were down 1.3bp, 1.6bp and 3bp respectively. Staying in the region we had some notable ECB-speak yesterday. ECB’s vice-president Constancio suggested that the ECB will only be able to gauge in Q1 of next year the effect of current stimulus measures. Specially, he added that ‘we will have to consider buying other assets, including sovereign bonds in the secondary market, the bulkier and more liquid market of securities available’. As DB’s Saravelos highlighted it is worth noting that his comments also directly echoes the Draghi speech on the justification for QE namely that: even if the effects are smaller than the US doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be doing it and it is not the job of the ECB to deal with moral hazard. Constancio is also the vice president of the ECB, which confirms the ‘semi official’ position of the central bank. For the first time also was the modalities of the QE mentioned and it was explicit that it will be capital key weighted that there are no legal issues around it. These are all in line with our European colleagues who see Q1 2015 being the most likely time for the ECB to move to public QE. In other European markets yesterday, the Stoxx 600 closed flat although we did have the DAX (+0.6%) rally for its tenth consecutive day. The DAX is now around 16% above its mid-October lows but still a relative underperformer against US equities for the year.
Indeed the S&P 500 (+0.28%) posted a new record high yesterday despite a relatively soft round of data from the US. Durable goods came ahead of expectations (+0.4% mom vs. -0.6% mom expected) but the picture was more subdued once we strip out the defence and aircraft elements (1.3% mom reading vs +1.0% consensus), marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The initial jobless claims (+313k vs. +288k expected), personal spending (+0.2% vs. +0.3% expected), and pending home sales (-1.1% mom vs. +0.5% mom) were all softer across the board although new home sales saw an upward revision to last month’s reading. On the activity side, the Chicago PMI fell 5.4pts to 60.8 (consensus 63.0) but still remains at solidly strong levels. Finally the University of Michigan confidence reading came in below consensus at 88.8 but still at a 7-year high.
Quickly refreshing our screens this morning markets are a little mixed in Asia. The Nikkei (-0.7%) and TOPIX (-0.8%) are suffering from their second consecutive day of declines whereas Chinese equities are adding on to their recent gains. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites are up around three tenths of a percent this morning with the risk tone still benefiting from the PBOC easing theme. There were also signs of further liquidity support overnight with the PBOC refraining from selling repurchase agreements for the first time since July. The 7day repo rate in China fell as much as 10bps overnight in Shanghai. Asian credit is trading on a firmer footing overnight as recent supply is gradually being digested.
With US markets closed trading activity could well be on the low side today. Focus will be on the OPEC meeting today as well as European data releases this morning. Besides the aforementioned German CPI print and Draghi’s speech, we have the November unemployment print for Germany, GDP/CPI for Spain, sentiment reading for Italy, and ECB money supply stats to name a few.
Opec decision: no curtailing of production:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged – Live Conference Feed
But, but, but… all the clever talking heads said they wil have to cut…
- *OPEC KEEPS OIL PRODUCTION TARGET UNCHANGED AT 30M B/D: DELEGATE
WTI ($70 handle) and Brent Crude (under $75 for first time sicne Sept 2010) are collapsing… as will US Shale oil company stocks and bonds (and thus all of high yield credit) tomorrow. The Saudis are “very happy” with the decision, Venzuela ‘stormed out, red faced, furious.’ Commentary from various OPEC members appears focused on the need for non-OPEC (cough US Shale cough) nations to “share the burden” and cut production (just as the Saudis warned yesterday).
Live Feed (via OPEC) – click image for feed
* * *
It appears OPEC members have varying opinions…
- *KUWAIT’S OIL MINISTER SAYS HAPPY WITH OPEC OUTPUT DECISION
- *OPEC DECISION IS `VERY HAPPY’ ONE: [SAUDI ARABIA] NAIMI
- *IRANIAN OIL MINISTER SAYS HE’S `NOT ANGRY’ WITH OPEC DECISION
- #OPEC Venezuela Ramirez storms out red faced. Looked furious.
- *OPEC, NON-OPEC MUST SHARE OIL MKT BURDEN: NIGERIA MINISTER
- *OPEC `NOT PLAYING HARDBALL’ IN OIL MARKET: NIGERIA MINISTER
- *OPEC DECISION WAS BEST THING TO DO AT THIS TIME: NIGERIA
- *OPEC MADE A GOOD DECISION: ECUADOR OIL MINISTER
- *WE ARE MAINTAINING OPEC UNITY: ECUADOR MINISTER
Maybe this is why…
* * *
History may not repeat but it rhymes so loud sometimes that Einstein would be rolling in his repetitively insane grave. As Bloomberg notes, the last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. “1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research who has covered the oil sector for 37 years, “it put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.” Think it can’t happen again? Think again… consider how levered US Shale drillers are and just what Saudi has to gain from keeping their foot on the US neck… In 1986, the U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.
* * *
This is not good news for the US credit market…
According to a Deutsche Bank analysis looking at what the “tipping point” for highly levered companies is in “oil price terms”, things start to get really ugly should crude drop another $15 or so per barrell. Its conclusion: “we would expect to see 1/3rd of US energy Bs/CCCs to restructure, which would imply a 15% default rate for overall US HY energy, and a 2.5% contribution to the broad US HY default rate…. A shock of that magnitude could be sufficient to trigger a broader HY market default cycle, if materialized. ”
The decision from the American perspective:
(courtesy zero hedge/Bloomberg))
OPEC Decision Is “Major Strike Against The American Market”, Russian Tycoon Says
As we warned yesterday, the last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. OPEC’s decision not to cut production, and Nigeria’s comments on the need for burden-sharing among non-OPEC members, ensures a crash in the US shale industry according to Leonid Fedun (Russia’s Lukoil board member). The Russian finance minister’s comments that oil at $80 in coming years is moderately optimistic and as Fedun ominously warns, this is a “major strike against the American market.” Isolated, much?
OPEC policy on crude production will ensure a crash in the U.S. shale industry, a Russian oil tycoon said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept output targets unchanged at a meeting in Vienna today even after this year’s slump in the oil price caused by surging supply from U.S shale fields.
American producers risk becoming victims of their own success. At today’s prices of just over $70 a barrel, drilling is close to becoming unprofitable for some explorers, Leonid Fedun, vice president and board member at OAO Lukoil, said in an interview in London.
“In 2016, when OPEC completes this objective of cleaning up the American marginal market, the oil price will start growing again,” said Fedun, who’s made a fortune of more than $4 billion in the oil business, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The shale boom is on a par with the dot-com boom. The strong players will remain, the weak ones will vanish.”
In Russia, where Lukoil is the second-largest producer behind state-run OAO Rosneft, the industry is much less exposed to oil’s slump, Fedun said. Companies are protected by lower costs and the slide in the ruble that lessens the impact of falling prices in local currency terms, he said.
Even so, output in Russia, the biggest producer after Saudi Arabia in 2013, is likely to fall slightly next year as lower prices force producers to rein in investment, Fedun said.
“The major strike is against the American market,” Fedun said
By late Thursday afternoon:
Russian ruble plummets to 48.58 RUB per dollar due to the plummeting oil price. Putin is not worried. He is converting all of his oil/gas sales into gold
(courtesy zero hedge)
Russia Ruble Plunges To New Record Low After OPEC Decision
Spot the difference…
Tick for tick lower with crude… at WTI tests as low as $67.75
The last time we were here, chatter of intervention saved the Ruble but since then the central bank has suggested it would let the currency float freer…
and seriously devaluaing since the peak in oil…
Or as Shinzo Abe would call it – Success!!
While this was happening: NATO to deploy tanks in Eastern Ukraine after VP of Euro Parliament states war is imminent:
(courtesy zero hedge)
NATO To Deploy Tanks In Eastern Europe Shortly After VP Of Europarliament Says Ukraine-Russia War Imminent
Just when global financial markets had shrugged off Ukraine as yet another ‘storm in a teacup’, it appears events are escalating rapidly once again. This morning saw European Parliament’s Vice President Saryusz-Wolski warn “Russia’s pressure on Ukraine is mounting high,further war imminent,” to which Ukraine’s President Poroshenko rapidly responded (via Twitter) rather ominously that a “third world war does not scare us,”having noted earlier than Ukraine needs to achieve NATO membership. This then prompted NATO’s top military commander to warn, he is “very concerned” that Russia’s military build-up in the annexed Crimean region could be used as a launchpad for attacks across the whole Black Sea region; leaving the alliance confirming that NATO plans to deploy tanks in Eastern Europe.
The European Parliament Vice President Jacek Saryusz-Wolski tweeted (rather to the point)…
To which Ukrainian President Poroshenko replied
Roughly translated meaning “A 3rd World War does not scare… in fact, nobody is going to start it,” adding
- *UKRAINE NEEDS TO ACHIEVE NATO MEMBERSHIP CRITERIA: POROSHENKO
- *UKRAINE TO HAVE UKRAINIAN AS SOLE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE: PRESIDENT
However, it seems the sabre-rattling continues… As Al-Jazeera reports, NATO’s top military commander has said he is “very concerned” that Russia’s military build-up in the annexed Crimean region could be used as a launchpad for attacks across the whole Black Sea region.
US General Philip Breedlove’s comments late on Wednesday came amid fears in Kiev that Russian-backed rebels will try to grab more land in eastern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March.
“We are very concerned with the militarisation of Crimea,” Breedlove said, following meetings with Ukraine’s top political and military leaders in Kiev.
“The capabilities that are being installed in Crimea … are able to exert influence over the entire Black Sea,” he said, highlighting the influx of cruise missiles and surface-to-air rockets.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said Wednesday that it had deployed a batch of 14 military jets to Crimea as part of a squadron of 30 that will be stationed on the peninsula.
Also on Wednesday, an OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in eastern Ukraine was reportedly attacked with rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft ammunition.
“These shots appear to have been fired from separatist-controlled territory,” the US Department of State said n a statement on Thursday.
“Any attacks on, or threats to, OSCE monitors or equipment are unacceptable. We call on all parties to refrain from any actions that endanger the safety of the OSCE mission in Ukraine.”
Which explains the decision to deploy tanks…
The United States is pushing Ukraine into the abyss of a civil war which has claimed thousands of lives, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told Asian counterparts on Thursday.
“American and NATO military forces are moving closer to Russia’s threshold and the US has intensified activity in former Soviet republics,” he told an inaugural meeting of the South and South-East Asian Nations Defense Chiefs’ Dialogue in Colombo, Sri Lanka’s capital.
* * *
It appears the situation is anything but contained…
“Panicking” Ukrainians Face Soaring Prices, Warn “Inflation Is War”
With Ukraine, according to President Poroshenko, on the verge of World War III, it appears the people of the divided nation face another all too familiar war… on their living standards. As Hyrvnia continues to collapse to record-er lows, Ukraine’s Central Bank warns of further stress and FX (think USDollar or EUR) demand because the “population is in panic.” With a 19.8% inflation rate last month and a 48% devaluation in the currency this year, Bloomberg reports the costs of imported goods from gasoline to fruit and from medicine to meat is soaring. One store-owner reflected that she “feels the hryvnia devaluation everywhere,” and another noted “I can’t imagine how people survive on a single pension. We can’t even go to the drug store. We try to use herbs instead.” The Central bank expects inflation to keep rising (having previously peaked at 10,256% in 1993as the Soviet economy was dismantled). “Inflation is the same as the war,” warns one analyst, “it may lead to protests if people blame the authorities for failing to conduct proper policies.”
[Ukrainians] are cutting back because of this year’s 48 percent plunge in the hryvnia, a decline that’s eroded purchasing power. The inflation rate spiked to 19.8 percent last month as the currency’s slide boosted the costs of imported goods from gasoline to fruit.
Valentyna is thankful for the two pensions she and her husband share, even if Ukraine’s inflation shock means they’re no longer enough to buy medicine and meat.
“We have some potatoes, tomatoes and cucumbers from our dacha,” said the 72-year-old pensioner as she made her way through the city of Zhytomyr, a two-hour bus ride west of Kiev. “I can’t imagine how people survive on a single pension. We can’t even go to the drug store. We try to use herbs instead.”
“I watch the dollar rate all the time because for me it’s the best indicator of poverty,” said the 29-year-old mother of a son in first grade. “I buy less sweets and fruit because of the astronomical costs. We used to save some money. Now, we can’t save anything.”
It’s gonna get worse…
Inflation will probably speed up to 25 percent this year, compared with the 19 percent forecast earlier, central bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva said today.
Ukrainians are no strangers to inflation. Price growth peaked at 10,256 percent in 1993 as the Soviet economy was dismantled.Having subsided, the rate jumped to 31.3 percent in 2008, shortly before the hryvnia last sank.
“I’m ready to tolerate the current economic situation as long as the war is on,” said Hanna Hryhoriyeva, 67, a teacher at a culinary college who backed the protests’ anti-corruption message. “I won’t go onto the streets tomorrow because of inflation and the devaluation but my patience isn’t infinite.”
Others are less understanding.
Valya, a pensioner who declined to give her last name, said she’d just bought 2 kilograms (4.4 pounds) of grain that should last a month, along with potatoes and beetroot from the market. While she doesn’t drink alcohol or smoke, she can’t afford the bus to visit relatives’ graves in the Lviv region.
“Glory to Ukraine?” said Valya, 76, referring to a slogan of the street uprising. “Glory for what? Higher prices? The war? We’re just tolerating the authorities.”
And may end badly…
“Inflation is the same as the war,” Valchyshen said. “It may lead to protests if people blame the authorities for failing to conduct proper policies.”
* * *
Is it any wonder Poroshenko is talking up the war and hoping for more aid/loans from The West to subordinate his nation…
And then this happens…
- *MEDVEDEV, YATSENYUK TALKED ABOUT FINANCIAL-ECONOMY TIES
- Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday held a phone conversation with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Russian government press service reported Thursday.
- “Medvedev and Yatsenyuk discussed issues of financial-economic cooperation between the two countries,” the statement said.
And then Friday morning we witness this scary commentary:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Russian Warship Flotilla Enters English Channel For Military Exercises
The French delivery of two Mistral ships to Russia may be postponed indefinitely (a move which ultimately would cost Hollande over $4 billion in contract breach penalty fees he simply can’t afford to pay), but that doesn’t mean the Russian navy has been hobbled or is hiding in the corner. To the contrary: according to the following tweet from the UK Ministry of Defense, Russia’s navy is getting quite bolder.
As Bloomberg reports, at least 4 vessels which departed the Russian Northern Fleet main base on November 20, led by anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, entered English channel for exercises that include anti-sabotage training, damage control in case of fire and water intake, state-run news service RIA Novosti says, citing statement from Navy.
Reuters confirms that a squadron of Russian warships entered the English Channel on Friday to hold exercises, RIA news agency reported, the latest apparent show of military might since ties with the West plunged to Cold War lows over Ukraine.
RIA quoted the Northern Fleet as saying its vessels, led by anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, had passed through the Strait of Dover and were now in international waters in the Seine Bay to wait for a storm to pass.
“While it is anchored the crew are undertaking a series of exercises on how to tackle … infiltrating submarine forces and are training on survival techniques in the case of flooding or fire,” RIA quoted the Northern Fleet as saying in a statement.
The Russian navy could not reached for comment and the Defence Ministry declined to comment on the report.
The Russian navy frigate Smolny is seen at the STX Les Chantiers
de l’Atlantique shipyard site in Saint-Nazaire, western France, November 25, 2014
Naturally, NATO – afraid of looking even weaker than it is – was quick to downplay the incident since a lack of retaliation would make the defensive alliance appear quite prone to “penetrations” by Russian forces:
France’s navy confirmed the location of the ships and said it was not unusual to have Russian warships in the Channel.
“They are not holding exercises. They’re just waiting in a zone where they can be several times a year,” said the French Navy’s information service.
Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen, NATO’s military spokesman, also said the alliance was aware of the Russian ships’ location.
“Our information indicates that the ships are transiting and have been delayed by weather conditions. They are not exercising in the Channel, as some Russian headlines would have us believe,” he said.
And if they were in fact “exercising” it would simply mean that NATO exercises in the Black Sea miles away from the Russian coast, are finally being met in kind by a Russia which with every passing day is making it clear its “concern” of western reprisals and retaliation to Russian actions, which in turn are a consequence of NATO expansion eastward, is increasingly more negligible.
Both crude and copper crash to 4 year lows
(courtesy zero hedge/Friday morning)
Copper & Crude Crash To 4 Year Lows
With all eyes focused on the malls around America, we thought a glimpse at two of the most important commodities to the world economy would provide food for thought…
are at 4-year lows…
But you can still get a bargain stock at record highs…
And now our most likely first casualty of the oil drop:
The First Oil-Exporting Casualty Of The Crude Carnage: Venezuela
In the aftermath of OPEC’s failure to cut oil production, Russia has been acting surprisingly sanguine, perhaps as a result of less leverage in its system as compared to America’s own high yield-funded shale complex – now that it is a race to who will default first and be forced to take production offline – with Putin today saying “Russia will cope with the rout in crude oil”, and adding that “we are satisfied overall with the situation and do not see anything so extraordinary in what is happening. Winter is coming and I am sure that the market will come into balance again in the first quarter or toward the middle of next year.” Maybe it will, or maybe not, if indeed as those with a working frontal cortex suggest the plunge in crude prices is merely a function of a collapse in global demand now that the worldwide slowdown which has gripped Japan, Europe and China. In that case, the race to the bottom between Russia with its higher cash costs, and the US shale sector, loaded to the gills with billions in junk bonds, will be an epic one to watch.
But one country whose fate is now virtually assured – with a happy ending now sadly out of the picture – is the same one that stormed out furious at yesterday’s failure by OPEC’s cartel members to carve out a consensus leading to higher oil prices: Venezuela.
Here pretty much everything is about to go unhinged, with what now looks like an almost inevitable sovereign default as the endgame, coupled with the removal of a few million barrels of oil from the global supply chain, something which all the other OPEC members will be delighted by.
For confirmation one can merely look at the Venezuela bolivar, which earlier today feel to a record low of 150.76 VEF/USD on the black market according to dolartoday.com, which tracks rate at Colombian border, and as reported by Bloomberg moments ago. Indicatively, the official rate is 6.3 VEF/USD; the first unofficial rate that based on Sicad I, is 12 VEF/USD, while the secondunofficial rate, per Sicad II is 50 VEF/USD.
But what best shows that for Venezuela it is essentially game over, is that as the chart below shows, Venezuela’s international reserves declined $1.3 billion in the week after President Nicolas Maduro transfered $4 billion of Chinese loans to the central bank. In other words, the scrambling oil exporter was forced to burn one third of its Chinese bail-out loan to keep itself solvent. The country’s reserves dropped to $22.2 billion today, according to central bank data.
As Bloomberg also notes, Maduro on Nov. 18 ordered the Chinese loan proceeds to be moved from an off-budget fund, so that they would show up in reserves and help boost investor confidence in an economy beset by the world’s highest inflation and widest budget deficit. The following day, Venezuelan bonds rose the most in six years in intraday trading.
“If the plan was to calm the bondholders, then burning through a third of that money in five working days doesn’t do it in any way,” Henkel Garcia, director of Caracas-based consultancy Econometrica, said in a telephone interview. But while Venezuela’s bondholders will be livid, Venezuela’s “friends” from the OPEC cartel will be delighted: after all its default means one less producer on line, and a natural increase in the price of oil.
Trading in Venezuela’s dollar bonds was closed today for a U.S. holiday. It will reopen on Monday at which point we expect the market to be as close to “offer-only” as possible, because burning through over $1 billion in reserves in 1 week with crude plunging to under $70 means that Venezuela now may have about 6 months of liquidity left at best, since one thing is certain: China will not throw more good money, as in Venezuela bailout loans, after bad.
The only thing that is uncertain is how long until some army general figures out what is going on and decides to go “Kiev” on that paragon of best efforts socialism, Venezuela’s soon to be ex-president Nicolas Maduro.
The Germans came out swinging today. Weidmann will not go along with stimulus spending. He correctly states that growth can only come from the private sector: savings from the private sector and those savings used by the private sector for investment will only create growth. The public sector can never create growth. He also correctly states that the lower price of crude is having a good deflationary scenario for the world as inputs to cost for industry (and mining) go down.
a must read…
(courtesy Jens Weidmann/zero hedge)
As It Turns Out Deflation Is Good After All
Earlier today, in typical German fashion, the chief of the Bundesbank poured cold water on Europe’s latest round of demands that Germany carry the weight of the rebound from the triple-dip on its shoulders, as usual, when Buba President Jens Weidmann Friday rejected calls for a German stimulus plan, saying only structural reforms and more competitiveness would kick-start eurozone economies. “Calls for a public fiscal stimulus plan in Germany to boost the Eurozone economy are amiss,” said Mr. Weidmann in a speech for an economic summit hosted by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. He is, of course, right: the longer Europe’s insolvent, uncompetitive governments kick the can and force Germany to do all the hard work, the longer Europe will be unable to get out of a hole that gets deeper with every passing day. In short: Mr. Weidmann refuses to “get to work” for a bunch of corrupt, clueless politicians.
He then proceeded to do something shocking: he was logical. Quoted by the WSJ, he said: “Investment rates that are above the growth potential of a developed economy aren’t likely to boost prosperity—this applies to both public and private investments.”
The German government shares Mr. Weidmann’s view. It says public investment can’t solve the eurozone’s growth problem as structural reforms are needed. The International Monetary Fund and neighboring countries France and Italy have called on Germany to boost public investment. But Berlin has pledged only €10 billion ($12.5 billion) in additional public investment over three years starting in 2016, hoping this would spur private investment worth €50 billion.
Mr. Weidmann stressed that it is also wrong to believe central bank monetary policy would be able to solve the bloc’s economic problems.
“It is an illusion to believe that monetary policy means can raise economies’ growth potential permanently, or create lasting jobs,” Mr. Weidmann said. “In the end, this can only be achieved by structural reforms, because growth and employment occur in innovative companies and competitive products, and well-educated and highly motivated employees.”
Therein lies the rub: Europe is allergic to structural reforms, and as we have shown in the past, it blames its woeful fate on evil, evil “austerity” (somewhat paradoxical for a continent where record debt gets recorder with every passing quarter), when in reality what is causing the ongoing European depression is crime, corruption, cronyism and capital misallocation.
But none of that is news. What was news, and what was truly notable in Weidmann’s statement is his open jab at the stupidity of Keynesian economics itself. To wit from Bloomberg: ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann says at event in Berlin that consumer prices in euro area “are strongly influenced by the energy prices, which are at the moment experiencing a positive supply shock.”
The punchline: “There’s a stimulant effect coming from the energy prices – it’s like a mini stimulus package.”
But wait a minute, isn’t deflation under Keynesian voodoonomics, the biggest bogeyman imaginable?
It turns out deflation is only bad when it impacts… the S&P 500. Otherwise deflation for such things as energy prices and other input costs is suddenly bullish? So, by that logic, Japan with its soaring energy costs as a result of its currency devastation must be smack in the middle of the biggest depression ever. Which, of course, it is, as we warned would happen in early 2013.
For now, however, we are more focused on the official transformation of the German Central Bank into the central bank of “Austrian” economics.
Believe it or not, but the French 10 year rate below 1.0%
and these guys are a basket case:
(courtesy zero hedge)
The Absurdity Of European Sovereign QE In 1 ‘Tres Stupide’ Chart
ecause buying bonds and lowering interest rates will do what exactly…
Record high unemployment in France… and record low yields on sovereign bonds (10Y below 1.00% for the first time ever)…
Eur/USA 1.2481 up .0022
USA/JAPAN YEN 118.270 up .410
GBP/USA 1.5697 down .0057
USA/CAN 1.1398 up .0019
This morning in Europe, the euro is up, trading now well above the 1.24 level at 1.2481 as Europe reacts to deflation and announcements of massive stimulation but crumbling bourses. In Japan Abe went all in with Abenomics with another round of QE purchasing 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion on Oct 31. And now he wishes to give gift cards to poor people in order to spend. The yen continues to reverse like a yoyo. It finally settled in Japan down 41 basis points and settling above the 118 barrier to 118.270 yen to the dollar (heading towards 120). The pound is slightly down this morning as it now trades well below the 1.57 level at 1.5697.(very worried about the health of Barclays Bank and the FX/precious metals criminal investigation). The Canadian dollar is well down again today trading at 1.1398 to the dollar.
Early Friday morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.20% !!! down 4 in basis points from Wednesday night/
USA dollar index early Friday morning: 88.010 up 40 cents from Wednesday’s close
The NIKKEI: Friday morning up 211 points or 1.23% (Abe’s helicopter route to provide free cash)
Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe all in the red
2/ Asian bourses mostly in the green except Hang Sang and Australia / Chinese bourses: Hang Sang in the red, Shanghai in the green, Australia in the red: /Nikkei (Japan) green/India’s Sensex in the green/
Gold early morning trading: $1183.00
Closing Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.84% down 7 in basis points from Wednesday
Closing Japanese 10 year bond yield: .42% !!! down 2 in basis points from Wednesday
Your closing Spanish 10 year government bond Friday/ down 8 in basis points in yield from Wednesday night.
Spanish 10 year bond yield: 1.90% !!!!!!
Your Tuesday closing Italian 10 year bond yield: 2.03% down 13 in basis points from Wednesday:
trading 13 basis points higher than Spain:
IMPORTANT CLOSES FOR TODAY
Closing currency crosses for Friday night/USA dollar index/USA 10 yr bond:
Euro/USA: 1.2443 down .0016
USA/Japan: 118.62 up .760
Great Britain/USA: 1.5631 down .0094
USA/Canada: 1.1423 up .0085 (and up 1.70 over 2 days)
The euro fell in value during this afternoon’s session, and it is down by closing time , finishing well below the 1.25 level to 1.2443. The yen was down during the afternoon session, and it was down 76 in basis points on the day closing above the 118 cross at 118.62. The British pound lost huge ground during the afternoon session and it was down on the day closing at 1.5631. The Canadian dollar was well down in the afternoon and was down on the day at 1.1423 to the dollar.
Currency wars at their finest today.
Your closing USA dollar index: 88.30 up 70 cents from Wednesday.
your 10 year USA bond yield , down 1 in basis points on the day: 2.17%!!!! (and the Dow is up???)
European and Dow Jones stock index closes:
England FTSE down 0.80 or 0.01%
Paris CAC up 7.84 or 0.18%
German Dax up 5.98 or 0.06%
Spain’s Ibex up 43.10 or 0.10%
Italian FTSE-MIB down 85.71 or 0.43%
The Dow: up 0.49 or .01%
Nasdaq; up 4.31 or 0.09%
OIL: WTI 66.15 !!!!!!!
And now for your big USA stories
Today’s NY trading:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Dow Record Close Despite Bond Yields, Bullion, & Black Gold Battering
Despite the best efforts of business media to paint a rosy picture of the Black Friday spend-fest, stocks had only one trajectory – from upper left to lower right – from the open.Small Caps were slammed but all major indices gave up significant knee-jerk “energy schmenergy” gains to close ugly. However, The Dow was pushed just into the green – and new record highs – to prove everything in the centrally planned world is awesome. Crude oil prices were monkey-hammered to 5-year closing lows. The USDollar gained on the day – after 3 down days – and combined with Swiss referendum expectations, gold faded notably (as did Silver with oil). Treasury yields tumbled 10-12bps on the week and HY credit notably underperformed.
Ugly day for stocks…
As the week’s gains disappear…
Stocks decoupled from USDJPY
Credit markets were hit hard today – driven by HY energy collapse
While stocks were ugly, it was commodities that took the proverbial biscuit today…
As the dollar rallied from OPEC’s decision after 3 down days…
Treasury yields plunged…
Let us close the week out with this wrap up courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog
(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog.)
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Friday 11.28.14)
I told you last week there would be no charges for the police officer who shot and killed Michael Brown, and no charges were brought. Of course, there was rioting and violence, and that seems to be what was wanted. The Governor of Missouri did not deploy the National Guard, and things got out of control. Was it done on purpose? One thing is for sure, this is NOT about race. The Obama Administration wants it to be; otherwise, he would not have sent Al Sharpton to Ferguson. This is about a very bad economy and an economy that is going to get much worse. Ferguson and all the protests around the country are a distraction. The undertone of the protesters’ narrative is that white people and white police are hunting down black men and killing them. This is outrageous and totally unsupported by fact. Statistically speaking, America does not have a white on black crime problem. Only 7.6% of blacks are killed by whites. Only 14% of whites are killed by blacks. Former NYC Mayor Rudolf Giuliani said on Meet the Press that 93% of black people are killed by other black people. Likewise, about 83% of whites are killed by white people. Nowhere in the country is the black on black murder problem more obvious than in Chicago. Hundreds of young black men every year are killed in Chicago by blacks. Since Michael Brown died in August, more than 100 black men have been shot and killed in Chicago.
What is Ferguson really about? Again, it’s cover for a bad economy and an economy that is going to get much worse. Sure, the third quarter GDP was just revised up to a 3.9% growth rate. I called economist John Williams about this, and he told me that is simply spin and not true. We also just got bad consumer confidence numbers, a spike in unemployment claims and a big drop in PMI numbers.
You want more proof the economy is headed down? Look no further than Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer. He just said the Democrats made a “mistake” in voting for Obama Care. He said, “We blew it,” and said Democrats should have focused on the economy. Does that sound like the economy is going to be getting better? Also, didn’t I say right after the midterm elections that Democrats would run against Obama and his policies? You know who is up for re-election in 2016? Chuck Schumer. And doesn’t he sound like he is throwing President Obama and his policies under the bus? Just as I predicted.
If you need more proof the economy is going to get worse, then look no further than Obama Care and rising insurance premiums. And, just wait until the employer mandate kicks in next year. It is the job killer everyone has warned you about. Speaking of jobs, the youth unemployment rate in the black community is nearly 25%. Blacks in general are unemployed at twice the rate of whites. John Williams says the sub 6% unemployment rate is a big fat lie. The real rate is hovering around 23% for years. A buck an hour raise at a fast food restaurant and a 29 hour work week with zero overtime is not going to really help anyone, especially the minority communities like Ferguson. Ask yourself this, if the economy was really growing at a 3.9% rate, would we have nearly 93 million people not in the work force? Would we have 47 million on food stamps? Would we have 14 million on disability? The economy is not in a so-called recovery and the Democrats know it–and so does the Obama Administration. This is what Ferguson and the protests around the country are about. This is all about “look over here” and not at the real problem, a stinking and sinking economy for Main Street.
They have extended the negotiations, once again, for Iran and the nuclear deal the west has been working on for years. It will be another seven months before the next expiration date. Iran has said repeatedly it will not curtail its program. Here are some really the big questions: Will Saudi Arabia and all the other Sunni nations sit and wait? Is Israel going to sit and wait? Those are two very big Middle East wild cards, and I think we get an answer sometime next year.
Finally, there is gold and news that more countries want theirs back. The Dutch just repatriated 122 tons. The leading French candidate in upcoming elections says France should get its gold back. The Swiss are voting this weekend to get their gold back inside its borders. Why all the attention to getting control of physical gold? Could it be central banks don’t trust each other’s paper? If paper assets devalue or default, would having gold in your possession be a good idea? Countries wanting physical is not a good indication that the global economy is good; and, in fact, it is signaling that it might be getting ready to tank.
Join Greg Hunter as he analyzes these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.
I know that many of you are totally frustrated from the antics of our banker friends. Trust me they are terrified with respect to the global mess and they are shooting bullets blindly in all directions hoping something good will happen.
I will leave you with this thought in gold:
we have a total of 36 tonnes of gold standing for December to which I will add the 4.5 tonnes from November (nothing was settled as far as I could see) gives us 41 tonnes of gold that must be delivered upon. The registered or “for sale” gold has only 25 tonnes. The GOFO rates are negative which means supply of gold available to the bankers is nil. How on earth are they going to supply the necessary gold to our longs who also are pretty much aware of the situation?
That is all for today
Have a great weekend
I will see you Monday night
bye for now