Dec 8/GLD loses .9 tonnes/no change in SLV/gold and silver advance in the access market/oil late tonight breaks $63.00 per barrel/

My website is now ready     You can find my site at the following url: or  www

I will continue to send the  comex data down to my good friends at the Doctorsilvers website on a continual basis.

They provide the comex data. I also provide other pertinent data that may interest you. So if you wish you can view that part on my website.

Gold: $1194.70 up $4.70
Silver: $16.22  up $0.02

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1203.75
silver $16.36

The gold comex today had a poor delivery  day, registering 2   notices served for 200 oz.  Silver comex registered 1 notices for 5,000 oz.



A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 245.83 tonnes for a loss of 57 tonnes over that period.



In silver, the open interest rose by a small 445 contracts with Friday’s fall in price of  $0.23.  Looks like some of the shorts are vacating the arena. For the past year, we have been witnessing massive liquidation of contracts despite the fact that it cost nothing to roll.  This makes no sense and it smacks of cash settlements which are totally illegal. Since I have been following comex data, I have never witnessed such a massive liquidation in both gold and silver.  The total silver OI still  remains relatively high with today’s reading  at 147,360 contracts. The big December silver OI contract rose by 43 contracts up to 616 contracts.



In gold we had a rise in OI with the fall in price of gold Friday to the tune of $17.50.  The total comex gold  OI rests tonight  at 370,120  for a  gain  of 445 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 1963 contracts losing 12 contracts.





Gold started out at midnight exactly where we left off in NY at $1192.00.  At 2 am (London’s first fix) gold hit $1196. and then gold straddled the $1195 level throughout the early morning and early comex trading.  By London’s second fix, it again hit $1196.50 only to be repelled again back down to $1192.  That is where it stayed until 2pm in the access market, gold rocketed to $1207.00 only to be knocked down again to settle around the $1204.00 area.



Silver traded a bit below its NY close  (no doubt due to the increase in margin rates orchestrated by the CME Friday night). By London’s first fix silver remained at $16.25.  However by 5 am, it rebounded northbound to $16.35 only to be repelled back down to $16.23.  The second London fix had silver at $16.31.  It jumped in sympathy to gold at 2 pm to $16.41 but settled down to close in the the access market at $16.36



Today, we lost .9 tonnes  of gold Inventory at the GLD / inventory rests tonight at  719.12 tonnes.



In silver, we had no change in silver inventory

SLV’s inventory  rests tonight at 345.223 million oz




We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.

First:   GOFO rates:

all rates moved closer to the positive and out of backwardation!!

Now, all the months of GOFO rates( one, two, three  six and 12  month GOFO moved positive and moved closer to the positive needle.  They must have found a few bars to lease.  On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates. It looks to me like these rates even though negative are still fully manipulated. London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.

The backwardation in gold is incompatible with the raid on gold. It does not make any economic sense.

Dec 8 2014

1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate

+.072.%         + .07500  -%        -+08250   -%   +. 095  .%          +. 1775%

Dec 5 2014:

+.035%           +.0300%       +.0450 %         +.06%    +.11%






Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest rose today  by 1207 contracts from 368,913 all the way up to 370,120  with gold down by $17.50 on Friday (at the comex close). We are now into the  big December contract month where the number of OI standing for the gold metal registers 1963 contracts for a loss of 12 contracts.  We had 0 delivery notices served on Friday so we lost 12 contracts or  1200 oz of gold will not stand for the December contract month.  The non active January contract month rose by 60 contracts up to 524.  The next big delivery month is February and here the OI fell to 234,103 contracts for a gain of 635 contracts. The  estimated volume today was awful at 56,855.  The confirmed volume on Friday was fair at 167,283 even with the help of high frequency traders. The comex now has no credibility and many investors have vanished from this crooked casino. Today we  had 2  notices filed for 200 oz .

And now for the wild silver comex results.    Silver OI  rose by  445 contracts from  146,915  up to 147,360  even though  silver  was down by $0.23 on  Friday.   I do believe we lost a few more bankers along the way.   The big December active contract month saw it’s OI rise by 43  contracts up to 616 contracts. We had 13 notices served upon for Fri. delivery.  Thus we gained 56 contracts or an additional 280,000 oz will stand.  The estimated volume today was unbelievable registering a tiny 12,882. ??? The confirmed volume on Friday was good at 43,105. We had 1 notices filed for 5,000 oz today

December initial standings


Dec 8.2014



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 10,383.487 oz (Scotia,Brinks)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 186,465.538 (HSBC,Manfra,Scotia oz
No of oz served (contracts) today 2 contracts(200  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 1963 contracts (196,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  1851 contracts(184900 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month  150,109.154 oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 145,803.5 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions



total dealer withdrawal:  nil   oz

we had 0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

we had 2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks: 398.54  oz

ii) Out Scotia: 9984.947 oz

total customer withdrawal:  10,393.487 oz

we had 4 customer deposits:

i) Into Scotia;  74,644.677 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 10,383.487 oz  (arriving from our two withdrawals)

iii) Into JPMorgan;  100,633.624 oz

iv) 803.75 oz (Manfra)

total customer deposits :186,465.538 oz

We had 0 adjustments:

Total dealer inventory:  721,123.608 oz or 22.429 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =  7.903 million oz. (245.83) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 57 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

Today, 0 notices was issued from  JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contracts  of  which 2 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0  notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (1851) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (1963) minus the # gold notices filed today (2)  x 100 oz  =  the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.

Thus the  initial standings:

1851  (notices filed for the month x 100 oz + 1963)  the number of OI notices for the front month of December served upon – (2) notices served today equals 381,200 oz or 11.856 tonnes

we lost 12 contracts or 1200 oz that will not stand.

This initiates the month of December for gold.

And now for silver

Dec 8/2014:

 December silver: initial standings



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 1,064,019.522 oz (CNT,Brinks, Scotia,HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 600,325.78 oz (CNT)
No of oz served (contracts) 1 contracts  (5,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 615 contracts (3,075,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2486 contracts (12,425,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  1,163,562.6  oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  3,201,802.6  oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

 total dealer deposit: nil oz



we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz



We had 4 customer withdrawal:

i) Out of CNT:  125,949.9 oz (one decimal)

ii) Out of Brinks: 304,844.210 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  60,920.8   oz  (one decimal)

iv) Out of HSBC: 572,304.612 oz

total customer withdrawal  1,064,019.522  oz

We had 1 customer deposits:


i) Into CNT;  600,325.78 oz

total customer deposits: 600,325.78    oz

we had 1 adjustment

from the brink’s vault:

99,998.96 oz was adjusted out of the dealer as an accounting error.

Total dealer inventory:  64.479 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer)   177.169 million oz.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 1 contracts or 5,000 oz.  To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month   (2486) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (616) minus  (the number of notices filed today (1) x 5,000 oz =   the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.

Thus:  2486 contracts x 5000 oz  +  (616) OI for the November contract month – 1 (the number of notices filed today)  =15,505,000 oz of silver that will stand for delivery in December.

we gained 280,000  oz standing.

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:


The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold.  I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China


vs no sellers of GLD paper.



And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:


Dec 8.2014: we lost .900 tonnes of gold/inventory 719.12 tonnes

Dec 5.2014: no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes

Dec 4 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes

Dec 3 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes/

December 2/2014; wow!! we had a huge addition of 2.39 tonnes of gold /Inventory 720.02 tonnes

December 1.2014: no change in gold inventory at GLD

Nov 28.2014: a loss  in inventory of 1.19 tonnes/tonnage 717.63 tonnes

Nov 26.2014: we lost 2.09 tonnes of gold heading to India and or China/inventory at 718.82 tonnes


Today, December 8  we lost .900 tonnes of   inventory at GLD.

inventory: 719.12 tonnes.

The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold  departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.   There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks).

GLD :  719.12 tonnes.




And now for silver:


Dec 8.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz

Dec 5/2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz

Dec 4/we lost another 2.204 million oz of silver/inventory 345.223 million oz

dec 3. we lost 2.73 million oz of silver/inventory 347.427 million oz and back where we were on Dec 1.2014.

dec 2 wow@!!@ a huge addition of 2.20 million oz of silver/inventory 350.158 million oz.

December 1: no change in inventory/347.954 million oz

Nov 28.2014: no change in inventory/347.954 million oz

Nov 26.2014; no change in inventory/347.954 million oz




December 8/2014/  we had no change in silver/inventory  registers: 345.223 million oz



And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note:  Sprott silver fund now deeply into the positive to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at Negative 10.6% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative   10.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold  61.4%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.10%

cash .5%

( December 5/2014)   will update later  

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV  falls to positive 0.86% NAV (Dec 8/2014)  

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  rises to negative -0.19% to NAV(Dec 8/2014) 

Note: Sprott silver trust back hugely into positive territory at 0.86%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at  -0.19%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.





And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:

Early gold trading from Europe early Monday morning:


Gold Prices Kept Low But Only For Americans

Published in Market Update  Precious Metals  on 8 December 2014

By Mark O’Byrne

The SGT Report interviewed GoldCore’s Head of Research Mark O’Byrne over the weekend. The video was released yesterday evening and has already had over 5,300 views.

Click on image or here to watch

Topics covered in the interview included:

  • Gold performing well in all currencies in 2014
  • A yes vote to Swiss gold referendum would have been “icing on cake” for gold market
  • Existing fundamentals sound due to India and China demand and Russian, Chinese and other central bank demand
  • Germans can’t get their gold reserves. Do how did the Dutch get their 122 tonnes of gold?
  • Is Germany being prevented from holding gold to prevent independent foreign policy action?
  • The mind boggling scale of the U.S. $18 trillion national debt  and over $100 trillion to $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities
  • How humongous is a billion, a trillion and a quadrillion?
  • The illusion of digital “wealth” and the coming wealth transfer when system implodes

Here is a transcript of the first 11 minutes of the 26 minute interview.

SGT Report: What I wanted to do gentlemen is start with a headline that we rarely see and it’s this one which I haven’t written yet – “Strong dollar keeps gold prices low for Americans” and the reason I’m saying that is that according to your own blog at Mark ( GoldCore blog ), gold is up 14.3% in japanese yen this year, 12.3% in euros, 5.8% in British pounds and of course only 0.4% when priced in dollars.

And that’s the real story, isn’t it – gold continues to be real money and act as real money around the globe as fiat currencies are printed and annihilated.

Mark O’Byrne: ABSOLUTELY and I think it speaks to the dollar-centric nature of the world today.

We all look at things in dollars – not just in America, you guys do that naturally enough, but throughout the western world, particularly in the investment and finance sphere, the dollar is still king and everything is looked at  in terms of pricing in dollars. That’s created the perception that gold has been weak this year when in reality, it has been anything but.

It’s actually slightly higher in dollar terms ytd in 2014. So it’s performed quite well versus other things, obviously not the stock markets which have roared ahead again but it has performed very well in all the other major fiat currencies.

I think what we are seeing in terms yen and euro and pounds to a certain extent is a precursor to what we will see in terms of the dollar probably next year. We had the fall in 2013, I think this year we are seeing a consolidation, a bottoming-out process. I think it’s also a function of manipulation, and we might talk about that in the course of the interview.

But it’s not just the major fiat currencies. It’s very strong in yen, and they are debasing the yen in a huge way. And the euro – they haven’t even started debasing the euro yet and there is talk that Draghi is going to start that in 2015 but it’s up 12% in euro terms without them even starting QE in the eurozone. But even more importantly if you look to Russia, Ukraine, Syria and countries like that their currencies are being devalued in a very significant way and gold has gone up 30-50% in these currencies.

So it shows again gold is a safe haven asset, it is money. it has been throughout history and it is today. It makes a complete mockery of the idiotic and simplistic anti-gold propaganda in effect. The stuff that has come out recently, Willem Buiter from Citibank and others like Barry Ritholtz, a very prominent blogger who gets picked up and has a very prominent pulpit on Bloomberg. And these guys are coming out and attacking gold in quite a serious way and saying that gold is in a 6000-year old bubble and a whole host of silly, silly things.

I mean even the 6000-year old bubble thing is ridiculous because there were no bubbles 6000 years ago because there were no markets. We’ve only had bubbles, big bubbles particularly, since the Federal Reserve in 1913, and particularly since Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971 – that’s what has created really big bubbles.

So there were no bubbles even 1,000 years ago. So it’s important for people to realize that and to stay focused on that because there is a lot of propaganda that shakes people out positions.

We have had a lot of clients selling in recent months and we tell them – and it’s not in our interest to tell them – not to sell. As a dealer we make money when people buy and sell. But we have always said that if we do the right thing by our clients, we give them good advice, we tell them to hold for the long term, to own gold as financial insurance, we believe that they will appreciate that and we will get good word of mouth and they tell their friends and family and it is just doing the right thing by your client as well.

SGT Report:  THAT’s right, and we try to do the right thing by our listeners and you read my mind when you mentioned propaganda because that is exactly what it is and that’s why I wanted to lead with these facts. When priced in other currencies around the world gold is up a lot this year.

Now what we hear from the mainstream mocking-bird corporate media in this country is that gold is a barbarous relic and stock market’s are roaring higher. And the reason for this is that central banks are buying S&P futures to drive markets higher while they are simultaneously working in collaboration to suppress gold and silver prices. That’s a fact. So it’s pretty interesting to stand back at a 30,000 foot view and look at the facts and realise that despite the fact that they are trying to crush the paper prices of gold and silver, gold is still up half a percent when priced in dollars this year and that’s only because the dollar has been surging.

So why do we care about this? Why do we still talk about precious metals at this point? Well, as you noted in an article recently Mark, US DEBT HAS SURPASSED THE $18 TRILLION MARK, surging 70%  higher during this “recovery” under Barack Obama. It’s all an illusion of debt. Everything they’re doing to create this recovery, a roaring economy, a roaring stock market is an illusion of bankster debt, period. Do you agree?

Mark O’Byrne:  I DO INDEED YES. I was shocked by – when I went into Google News to see how the – because when we hit $18 trillion debt I thought that could be a penny dropping for people and I thought some of the media might say “oh, wow, maybe the recovery isn’t as strong as we thought” and there would be some interesting coverage of this but it was barely covered at all. Things have been quite Orwellian for a while but I actually think it’s becoming more Orwellian and it’s amazing that you could hit the 18 trillion number in terms of national government debt – it does not cover unfunded liabilities which are between $100 trillion and $200 trillion – so it’s just incredible that this number would be hit. It’s increased roughly $1 trillion per year under the Obama presidency, in this so-called ‘recovery’ and it’s pure propaganda that it’s a recovery. You can’t have a recovery when the balance sheet of your nation is deteriorating in a massive way which is what is happening. And there is no reduction in debt, either the nominal national debt or the unfunded liabilities so it makes a complete mockery of the so-called ‘recovery’ meme that goes on.

There are lots of other data points recently that suggests that the recovery is much, much more fragile and obviously a lot of the statistics are ‘hedonically adjusted’ and they are tweaked and manipulated to suggest that there is recovery but I think you have to question that.

People get so jaded and so bombarded with numbers and they are almost blase about a trillion. They don’t realize how big a trillion is.

A trillion is a thousand billion. But they don’t even realize how big a billion is. A billion is a thousand million and they don’t understand how big that is.

If you put it in terms of time that’s a good way for people to understand it. So I actually pulled up the blog we did previously: a billion seconds ago was 1967, nearly fifty years ago. A billion minutes ago Jesus Christ was alive, back in Bethlehem and Jerusalem, 2014 years ago. A billion hours ago our ancestors were back in the Stone Age. So that’s how big a billion is. It’s a huge number and the U.S. debt increased $1 trillion in 1 year.

SGT Report:  AND THAT’S A THOUSAND BILLION! You’re right. The numbers are so large. No-one can get their arms around them at this point.

Forget talking to your friends, neighbours and colleagues about the $1 quadrillion dollar derivatives market. I’ve often said, and Rory and I and other guests have talked about the fact that I think, and I believe firmly that what’s going on behind the scenes is far scarier and far more dire than any of us can possibly imagine as these banksters need to reconcile these numbers on a daily basis. Really, in fact, they are unreconcilable, even mentally, when you just consider the magnitude of the numbers. Can you even imagine having to be the DTCC and reconciling these high frequency trades at the end of every day? It’s absolutely impossible and it’s not nutty to say that. I just is true, even with the help of machines and computers. It’s impossible to reconcile all of these trades because at the end of the day, in a fair and honest market, at the end of the 3-day DTCC SETTLEMENT PERIOD the paper certificates need to transfer to the new rightful owner. That’s not happening. How can that possibly happen when you are talking about trillions of trades in a year.

Now Rory, I know you’ve got some great questions to prepare for Mark so I want you to feel free to jump in at any point. Why don’t we talk about the Swiss gold referendum before we pass it over to you because a vote against sovereignty and freedom is what this was and as Peter Schiff has summarized that the Swiss had hitched their wagon to the euro, a thought they once firmly rejected by refusing to join the european union. But they’ve turned their back on their own currency, but as you put it, Mark, and I agree, demand from India, Russia and china is far more important. And as I said before the referendum had even occurred it doesn’t matter what they do, because we know the truth.

And the truth is that central banks and nation states around the world are hoarding gold and acquiring gold as fast as they can. What do you make of the Swiss referendum vote? Do we have this right – it really doesn’t matter?

Mark O’Byrne:  YES, ABSOLUTELY. I think the Swiss gold referendum, if they had voted yes – which was unlikely from day one because of the scale of the propaganda war that was going to go on – was going to be so huge that, and indeed it turned out to be, that it was unlikely. But at one stage the polls were showing that there was a chance. But for us that was always going to be the icing on the cake … and that was going to be a victory for sound money …

In order to watch the rest of the interview please click here

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,195.25, EUR 975.48 and GBP 766.73     per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,204.50, EUR   974.28 and GBP 768.37 per ounce.

Gold and silver were very strong last week and were up at 2.1% and 5.5% respectively.

Gold in USD – 2014 YTD (Thomson Reuters)

Despite the weekly gains, gold fell $14.90 or 1.24% to $1,191.40 per ounce Friday. Silver slid $0.17 or 1% to $16.29 per ounce.

Gold is marginally higher today and testing resistance at $1,200/oz and is being supported by lower European shares following soft economic data from China and Japan and an S&P downgrade of Italy’s credit rating. A much needed reminder that the Eurozone debt crisis may soon make an unwelcome  return to jolt markets.

Technically, immediate support is around $1,186, while on the upside $1,210-$1,220 will provide resistance.

Hedge funds and money managers pushed a bullish position in U.S. gold futures to the highest level since August in the week to December 2, data shows. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange traded fund, rose 0.12% to 720.91 tonnes on Friday, though still close to a six-year low.

Friday’s payroll report pushed the U.S. dollar to a five year high which pressurised gold.

Buying from Japan and particularly China offered good support to gold overnight.

MKS noted this morning that “gold edged lower through $1,190 to the daily low before the Tocom open on moderate volumes,” it said. “Tocom provided some light buying interest which helped the yellow metal approach $1,190 again, but the real jolt came when the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) opened up. Good buying interest was seen through the exchange in early trade when the spot price propelled through $1,190 and up towards $1,195 where some visible offering in Feb gold was apparent.”

Silver in USD – 5 Years (Thomson Reuters)

Silver was up 0.45%  at $16.45 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.2% to $1,237.25 an ounce and palladium rose 0.4%  to $807 an ounce.

Get Breaking News and Updates On Gold Markets Here









Early morning gold prices in its various currencies:


8:10 am


Y %Change
52W High
52W Low
Gold (USD)
Gold (GBP)
Gold (CAD)
Gold (AUD)
Gold (INR)
Gold (CHF)
Gold (EUR)
Gold (JPY)
Gold (TRY)
Gold/Silver …
Silver (USD)
Silver (GBP)
Silver (CAD)
Silver (AUD)
Silver (INR)
Silver (CHF)
Silver (EUR)
Silver (JPY)







Demand for gold in China (ex Sovereign China) this week totals 54 tonnes of gold.  The Chinese are not letting up purchasing gold!!


(courtesy Koos Jansen)



China Net Gold Import 1,212t Jan – Nov

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) – currently the best indicator of Chinese wholesale demand – keep up a strong pace.

In week 48 (November 24 – 28) SGE withdrawals accounted for 54 tonnes, year to date 1,867 tonnes have been withdrawn.

Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals 2014 week 48, dips

Corrected by the trading volume of the SGE contracts that are available for foreign traders (to take delivery, withdrawal from the vaults and export from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone), the weekly withdrawals in the mainland were 46 tonnes at minimum in week 48; year to date the bottom limit is at 1,841 tonnes.

Putting 1,841 tonnes in our basic equation (import = SGE withdrawals – scrap – mine), we can estimate mainland China has net imported 1,212 tonnes of gold up until November 28. Seasonally December and January are the strongest months for Chinese demand; I wouldn’t be surprised if total Chinese net gold import reaches 1,350 tonnes in 2014.

If nothing changes in the way the SGE reports on aggregated withdrawals from vaults in the mainland and vaults in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone – where foreign traders can take delivery, withdrawal and export – 2014 will likely be the last year in which we can accurately grasp the size of Chinese wholesale demand and total net import by using SGE withdrawals as a proxy. At this stage it’s impossible to know how much of the contracts traded by foreigners are physically withdrawn from the vaults in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and thus distort total withdrawal numbers as disclosed by the SGE. The next screen shot is from the latest weekly SGE report. In green the total withdrawals are highlighted.

Screen Shot 2014-12-07 at 4.33.05 PM
Blue (本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, green (累计交割量) is the total YTD.

Some more details

Bloomberg came out with a story on December 3, titled Shanghai Gold Trade Passes Record as China Seeks More Sway. There is some additional information I would like to share regarding this article. The writer notes:

The volume of all contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including those in the city’s free-trade zone, was 12,077 metric tons in the 10 months to October, compared with 11,614 tons during all of 2013, according to data on the bourse’s website.

Screen Shot 2014-12-07 at 10.05.18 PM

  • purple = unit, Kg
  • red = total gold volume traded in 2013, counted bilaterally

1) The SGE volumes disclosed by Bloomberg are double counted. This is because volume, open interest, turnover and delivery – not withdrawals – are all published bilaterally by the SGE. Later on in the article, the writer compares these SGE volumes to the data from the London Bullion Market, that publishes numbers unilaterally. From Koos Jansen, August 2, 2014:

The numbers disclosed of the SHFE and SGE are double-counted. Volume and Open Interest on both exchanges are published bilaterally, in contrast to the COMEX that publishes these numbers unilaterally. Meaning: if the volume disclosed by the COMEX is 1,000, than 1,000 contracts changed hands – 1,000 contracts were sold and 1,000 were bought. If the volume disclosed by the SHFE is 1,000, than 500 contracts were sold and 500 were bought.

To compare SGE & SHFE numbers to COMEX one has to divide the Chinese numbers by 2, only then are all the numbers single-sided. 

Perhaps this is valuable information for you when comparing Chinese and Western precious metals markets.

2) The writer notes the total traded volume includes the contracts traded in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, hinting at the fact those contracts might have caused elevated trading volumes on the SGE. However, the volume traded in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has been very low year to date. The contracts traded in the mainland are the ones that caused the overall volume to surge.

SGE weekly gold volumes

For a thorough analysis on the SGE and its subsidiary, the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI), click here.  

What caused the most recent spike (week 47 and week 48) was trading volume of the Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2) contracts (that can’t be traded by foreigners). These contracts hadn’t been traded since October 2013. The volumes of Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2) are not disclosed on the English SGE website, just like SGE withdrawal and OTC data.

Screen Shot 2014-12-07 at 9.41.20 PM

  • yellow = date (week 48)
  • purple = unit, Kg
  • green = last week
  • blue = this week
  • red = Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2) volume, counted bilaterally
  • brown = OTC

3) So what? SGE total trading volume is still very little compared to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), let alone the COMEX or the London Bullion Market. However, SGE withdrawal data is extremely significant, but these numbers are almost never disclosed by mainstream media outlets, nor by the World Gold Council, Thomson Reuters GFMS or CPM Group. Bloomberg and Reuters only published SGE withdrawals once (correct me if I’m wrong).

COMEX vs SGE vs SHFE Gold Volume

4) From Bloomberg:

Average daily volumes for the SGE’s 99.99 percent purity contract increased to about 20,427 kilograms (656,743 ounces) in October from 11,704 kilograms a year earlier, according to exchange data. By comparison, an average 17.4 million ounces changed hands daily between members of the London Bullion Market Association, according to the group’s data.

The next screen shot shows total trading volume of all SGE contracts in October 2014, we can see the 20,427 Kg number disclosed bilaterally.