Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1181.70 down $13.60 (comex closing time)
Silver: $15.74 down 37 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
The big news came from the FRBNY where we witness $64 million dollars worth of gold leave the bank (and New York shores)to repatriate the last amount owing to Holland and most likely Germany resumes her repatriation. This gold is valued at $42.20 per oz and thus 1.516587 million oz (47.17 tonnes) leaves the bank. We know that Holland was to receive its last 3 tonnes in November (they have thus repatriated 122.5 tonnes from the beginning of 2014). Since Germany is the only country that officially has asked for her gold back, you can safely assume that Germany has received 44 tonnes of her 1500 tonne hoard held in NY back to Frankfurt. The repatriation leaves behind a huge mess of derivatives as there is approximately 100 paper obligations per one oz of gold repatriated. ( Thus the 47.17 tonnes repatriated leaves behind a mess of 4,700 tonnes of paper obligations (151 million oz)
Also the Bloomberg story of a few months ago, that Germany does not wish to repatriate any more of her gold from the USA is totally bogus!!
The gold comex today had a fair delivery day, registering 16 notices served for 1600 oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.
Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 245.58 tonnes for a loss of 57 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by only 668 contracts despite Friday’s silver price rise of 44 cents. Short covering was the object of the exercise today. The total silver OI still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 148,436 contracts. The big December silver OI contract lost 2 contracts. It lowers to 20 OI contracts.
In gold we had a huge rise in OI with the rise in price of gold on Friday to the tune of $21.80. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 374,019 for a gain of 1721 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 286 contracts losing 13 contracts.
TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY
you have more important things to read instead of how gold/silver traded today.
Today, we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD /Inventory 712.30 tonnes
In silver, no change in silver inventory/
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 330.569 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today
First: GOFO rates:
GOFO rates moved slightly in both directions for today. The ONE, TWO moved slightly towards the positive direction but still remain negative. The 3 and 6 month GOFO remained constant and the 12 month moved closer to the negative needle.
On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates. These rates are still fully manipulated. London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
Dec 29 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
-.08% -.055% -.0400% +.02333% +.1325%
Dec 24 2014:
-.09% -.065% -.040 % +.023% +.1375%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest rose today by 1,721 contracts from 372,298 all the way up to 374,018 with gold up by $21.80 on Friday (at the comex close). This is what one would expect with such a sharp rise in price. We are now into the big December contract month where the number of OI standing for the gold metal registers 286 contracts for a loss of 13 contracts. We had 13 delivery notices served on Friday so we neither gained nor lost any gold contracts standing for delivery in the December contract month. The non active January contract month fell by 27 contracts down to 445. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI rose to 222,140 contracts for a gain of 1,572 contracts. The estimated volume today was poor at 41,102. The confirmed volume on Friday was also poor at 71,015 even although they had some help from our high frequency traders. The comex now has no credibility and many investors have vanished from this crooked casino. Today we had 16 notices filed for 1600 oz .
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell by 668 contracts from 149,104 down to 148,436 even though silver was up by 44 cents on Friday. Short covering by the banks was no doubt in full force on Friday. The big December active contract month saw it’s OI lower by 2 contracts down to 20 contracts. We had 1 notices served on Friday so we lost 1 contract or 5,000 additional oz that will not stand The estimated volume today was simply awful at 10,050. The confirmed volume on Friday was just as bad at 18,115. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. It now seems that most of the volume at the comex is done off hours.
December initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||64,492.92 oz ,(Brinks/Scotia) 2000 kilobars +192.92 oz|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||nil oz|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||16 contracts(1600 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||270 contracts (27,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||3111 contracts(311,100 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||153,424.154 oz|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks: 192.92 oz (6 kilobars???)
ii) Out of Scotia 64,300.000 (2000 kilobars ???)
total customer withdrawal: 64,492.92 oz (2006 kilobars)
we had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits; nil
We had 0 adjustments
Today, 0 notice was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16 contracts of which 16 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (3111) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (286) minus the # gold notices filed today (16) x 100 oz = 338,100 the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.
Thus the initial standings:
3111 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) + (286) the number of OI notices for the front month of December served upon – (16) notices served today equals 338,100 oz or 10.51 tonnes.
we neither gained nor lost any gold ounces standing for the December contract month.
Total dealer inventory: 770,987.09 oz or 23.98 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.895 million oz. (245.58) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 57 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
This initiates the month of December for gold.
And now for silver
December silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||13,695.026 oz (Delaware )|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||nil oz|
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (245,000 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||20 contracts (100,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||2936 contracts (14,680,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||1,594,966.8 oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||7,596,397.0 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit:
total customer deposit nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Out of Delaware: 13,695.533 oz
total customer withdrawal: 13,695.533 oz
we had 0 adjustments
Total dealer inventory: 64.604 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.472 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2936) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (20) minus (the number of notices filed today (0) x 5,000 oz = the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.
Thus: 2936 contracts x 5000 oz + (20) OI for the November contract month – 0 (the number of notices filed today) =14,780,000 oz of silver that will stand for delivery in December.
We lost 5,000 silver ounces that will not stand for the December silver contract. These were obviously cash settled and then another purchase of a future contract.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Dec 29.2014 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 712.30 tonnes
Dec 26.2013/ a small loss of .6 tonnes of gold. Inventory tonight at 712.30 tonnes
Dec 24.2014: wow!! somebody robbed the cookie jar/ we had a huge withdrawal of 11.65 tonnes from the GLD inventory/inventory at 712.90 tonnes. England must be bleeding badly!
Dec 23.2014; no change in gold inventory at GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 22.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 19.2014: a huge addition of 2.99 tonnes at the GLD/724.55 tonnes
Dec 18.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 17.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tones
Dec 16.2015 we lost 1.80 tonnes in tonnage at the GLD/721.56 tonnes
Dec 15.2014: we lost 2.39 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 723.36 tonnes
dec 12.2014: we had no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory 725.75 tonnes
Dec 11.2014: we had another addition of .95 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 725.75 tonnes
dec 10.2014: we gained another 2.99 tonnes of gold at the GLD. If China cannot get its gold from London, then its only source will be the FRBNY.
Inventory: 724.80 tonnes
Dec 9.2014: we gained 2.69 tonnes of gold/inventory 721.81 tonnes
Dec 8.2014: we lost .900 tonnes of gold/inventory 719.12 tonnes
Dec 5.2014: no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Dec 4 no change in tonnage/720.02 tonnes
Today, December 29 / we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD /Inventory rests tonight at 712.30 tonnes
inventory: 712.30 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 712.30 tonnes.
And now for silver (SLV):
Dec 29.2014 we had a small loss of 431,000 oz at the SLV to probably pay for fees/inventory 330.138 million oz.
Dec 26/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory 330.569
Dec 24.2014: we had a huge loss of 7.566 million oz/inventory 330.569 million oz
Dec 23.2014: no change in silver inventory/338.135 million oz
Dec 22.2014: today we lost 862,000 oz of silver inventory from the SLV. this left late Friday night./Inventory 338.135 million oz
Dec 19.2014; No change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 338.997 million oz.
Dec 18.2014: we lost 2.012 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/inventory 338.997 million oz
Dec 17.2014: no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 16.2014/ no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz
Dec 15.2014: we lost 1.341 million oz of silver at the SLV/Inventory 341.009 million oz
Dec 12.2014 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 342.35 million oz
Dec 11.2014: we lost 2.873 million oz of silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 342.35 million oz
December 10.2014; no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 9.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 8.2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 5/2014: no change in inventory/345.223 million oz
Dec 4/we lost another 2.204 million oz of silver/inventory 345.223 million oz
December 29/2014 /we had a small loss of 431,000 oz at the SLV/inventory
registers: 330.138 million oz
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 10.5% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 10.5 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.6.%
( December 24/2014) no figures today/Canadian holiday.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to – 0.36%!!!!! NAV (Dec 29/2014)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to negative -0.40% to NAV(Dec 29/2014)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into negative territory at -.36%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.40%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Monday morning:
Mark O’Byrne is off today/no report from Goldcore
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne/Goldcore)
SGE Withdrawals A Whopping 61t In Week 51, YTD 2016t
Wow!! 61 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from Shanghai vaults. This generally comes extremely close to estimating demand from China (the populace). It excludes sovereign China itself who purchases gold with dollar reserves and not through the Shanghai exchange.
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) came in very strong in week 51 at 61 tonnes, year to date the counter has reached 2016 tonnes.
Some SGE data lags one week, some not; in this post all data is up to week 51 (December 19).
Withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE captures Chinese wholesale demand, however, to get a more precise view on demand we have to add SGEI volume to the equation (read this post for a comprehensive explanation on the relationship between SGE withdrawals and volume on the Shanghai International Gold Exchange – SGEI). If we subtract SGEI volume from SGE withdrawals, at least 51 tonnes was withdrawn in week 51, at most 61 tonnes; year to date, at least 1,963 tonnes was withdrawn, at most 2,016 tonnes.
I could speculate on why Chinese wholesale gold demand is likely to be more in the area of the upper limit or bottom limit, fact is I have little evidence to back it up; all I know at this stage is that it’s somewhere in between.
Last week I wrote I expected withdrawals to be strong in the coming weeks, as December and January are seasonally the strongest months, but the Chinese are often aiming to buy their physical on the dips. In week 49 and 50 withdrawals were a bit held back because of the rising price of gold in renminbi. In week 51 the price was declining, so withdrawals were up.
Year to date SGE withdrawals – 1963 tonnes, the bottom limit – were supplied by (my best estimates):
- 442 tonnes mine production
- 1,172 tonnes import
- 349 tonnes recycled gold
If we use the upper limit – 2016 tonnes, import and/or recycled gold had to be more.
SGE premiums have been hovering in between 0.51 and 0.76 % above London spot throughout week 51.
Total SGE (gold) trading volume was down 14 % from the previous week at 410 tonnes. The uptrend is still intact as we can clearly see from the next chart.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) volume traded in Au futures accounted for 786 tonnes in week 51 (1,196 tonnes SGE + SHFE volume), on the COMEX 2,527 tonnes changed hands.
Just got the data of gold leaving the FRBNY for November: 64 million dollars worth of gold valued at 42.20 dollars
Thus: 64 million dollars /42.20 dollars per oz = 1.516587 million oz
Translated into tonnes:47.17 tonnes.
If you recall, we needed 3 tonnes to finish the Dutch repatriation.
So now we have conclusive proof that Germany has now repatriated 44 tonnes of gold so far this year.
|Asset||2011||2012||2013||May 2014||Jun 2014||Jul 2014||Aug 2014||Sep 2014||Oct 2014||Nov 2014/p|
|Held in custody|
|2||U.S. Treasury securities2||2,572,194||2,876,637||2,977,160||2,932,948||2,952,019||2,968,786||2,988,859||2,982,672||2,951,956||2,946,569|
|3||U.S. government agency securities3||730,754||694,720||761,138||757,796||758,926||760,772||761,200||769,969||764,641||784,793|
I sent immediately the data to Koos Jansen who now reports on the above story:
The number we all have been waiting for; The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), which is the custodian for parts of the official gold reserves of 36 nations and the IMF, e.g. The Netherlands and Germany, saw its inventory of foreign gold deposits drop by 47 tonnes in November 2014. Year to date the FRBNY has lost 166 tonnes. The FRBNY only publishes how much gold it stores in total for foreign nations and the IMF, not country specific.
The German central bank, the Bundesbank, or BuBa, first announced a gold repatriation program in 2012. BuBa then revised their program in 2013; it intended to repatriate 300 tonnes of gold from the US and 374 tonnes from France by the end of 2020. However, in 2013 they only received a meager 5 tonnes from the US and 32 tonnes from France. No worries though, said Carl-Ludwig Thiele from BuBa, in 2014 Germany aims to get 30 to 50 tonnes back from New York to remain on schedule.
Last November the Dutch central bank (DNB) surprisingly reported it had secretively repatriated 122.5 tonnes from New York. Quickly everybody in the gold space grabbed his or her calculator. If the Dutch got 122.5 tonnes from the FRBNY somewhere in between January and November, than how much should have been withdrawn in total from the FRBNY over this period, in order for Germany to remain on schedule? Now we know, based on official numbers: 166 tonnes was withdrawn in the first eleven months of this year, The Netherlands got 122.5 tonnes, which leaves 44 tonnes that Germany potentially got out of the vaults in Manhattan.
If the remaining 44 tonnes were all for sie Germans, this means Buba could be exactly on track to repatriate 30 to 50 tonnes this year.