Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1208.40 down $2.20 (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.35 down 16 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.
Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 247.23 tonnes for a loss of 56 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest rose by 1022 contracts even though yesterday’s silver price fell by 9 cents. The total silver OI continues to remains relatively high with today’s reading at 153,901 contracts. However the bankers are still loathe to supply much of the non backed silver paper.The January silver OI contract reads 15 contracts.
In gold we had a small decrease in OI with the fall in price of gold yesterday to the tune of $8.70. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 392,885 for a loss of 1,136 contracts. The January gold contract reads 124 contracts.
TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY
you have more important things to read instead of how gold/silver traded today.
Today, no change in tonnage at the GLD/ tonnes of gold/Inventory 704.83 tonnes
In silver, no change in silver inventory/
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 328.457 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today
First: GOFO rates:
All rates moved in the positive direction with the exception of the 1 year GOFO. Now the one month GOFO rate left backwardation and it is now in contango
Sometime in January the LBMA will officially stop providing the GOFO rates.
Jan 8 2015
+.025% +0425% +.06% +.09 .15%
Jan 7 2014:
-.005% +.02% +.035 % +.09% +.1525%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest fell today by 1,022 contracts from 394,021 down to 392,885 with gold down by $8.70 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now onto the January contract month. The non active January contract month saw it’s OI fall by 9 contracts down to 124. We had 6 contracts served yesterday. Thus we lost 3 contracts or 300 oz will not stand. Obviously this was cash settled with a fiat bonus. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI fell by 3,435 contracts to 216,438 contracts. The estimated volume today was poor at 58,892. The confirmed volume yesterday was also poor at 130,637 contracts, even though the high frequency traders gave some help with respect to volume. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz .
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by 1022 contracts from 152,879 up to 153,901 despite the fact that silver was down by 9 cents yesterday. The front January contract month saw its OI lower to 15 contracts for a loss of 76 contracts. We had 76 notices filed yesterday, so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing for silver in the January contract month. The next big contract month is March and here the OI rose by 430 contracts up to 103,678. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 12,034. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair at 37,951. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. it sure looks like the bankers have scared away all investors wishing to play the comex. Leverage has completely disintegrated.
January initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||64.30 oz (Manfra) 2 kilobars|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||nil|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||0 contracts(nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||124 contracts (12,400 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||8 contracts(800 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal (another farce)
i) out of Manfra: 64.3 oz (2 kilobars)
total customer withdrawal: 64.3 oz
we had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 0 adjustments
Today, 0 notice was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (8) x 100 oz or 800 oz to which we add the difference between the January OI (124) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz =13,200 the amount of gold oz standing for the January contract month. (.4100 tonnes of gold)
Thus the initial standings:
8 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) +OI for January (124) – 0(no. of notices served upon today) =13,200 oz (.41 tonnes)
we lost 300 oz to cash settlements.
Total dealer inventory: 770,487.09 oz or 23.96 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.948 million oz. (247.23) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 56 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
This initializes the month of January for gold.
And now for silver
Jan 8 2015:
January silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||1,206,599.487 (Delaware,HSBC,Scotia) oz|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||nil|
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (380,000 oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||15 contracts (455,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||104 contracts (520,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||2,922,045.2 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit nil oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Delaware: 6,154.807 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 600,193.900 oz (one decimal???)
iii) Out of Scotia: 600,250.78 oz
total customer withdrawal: 1.206,599.487 oz
we had 0 adjustments
Total dealer inventory: 65.037 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.322 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (104) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of January (15) – the Number of notices served upon today (0) x 5,000 oz = 595,000 oz the number of ounces standing so far for the January delivery month.
Initial standings for silver for the January contract month:
104 contracts x 5000 oz= 520,000 oz +OI standing so far in January (15)- no. of notices served upon today(0) x 5,000 oz = 595,000 oz
we neither gained nor lost silver ounces standing for the January contract month.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Jan 7.2015: we lost another exact 2.99 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 704.83 tonnes
Jan 6.2014: we lost 2.99 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD//inventory 707.82 tonnes
Jan 5/2015 we gained 1.49 tonnes of gold inventory into the GLD/Inventory tonight: 710.81 tonnes
Jan 2 2015: inventory remained constant/inventory 709.02 tonnes
Dec 31.2014: we lost another 1.79 tonnes of gold at the GLD today/Inventory 709.02 tonnes
Dec 30.2014/ we lost 1.49 tonnes of gold at the GLD today/inventory 710.81 tonnes
Dec 29.2014 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 712.30 tonnes
Dec 26.2013/ a small loss of .6 tonnes of gold. Inventory tonight at 712.30 tonnes
Dec 24.2014: wow!! somebody robbed the cookie jar/ we had a huge withdrawal of 11.65 tonnes from the GLD inventory/inventory at 712.90 tonnes. England must be bleeding badly!
Today, Jan 8/2015 / no change in gold inventory at the GLD /Inventory rests tonight at 704.83 tonnes
inventory: 704.83 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 704.83 tonnes.
And now for silver (SLV):
Jan 8.2015: no change in silver inventory/inventory at 328.457 million oz.
Jan 7.2015: we had another loss of 958,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory 328.457 million oz
jAN 6.2015: we had a small loss of 149,000 oz/inventory 329.415 million oz
Jan 5 no change in silver inventory/Inventory at 329.564 million oz
jan 2.2015: no change in silver inventory/ Inventory 329.564 million oz
Dec 31.2014: we had no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory
at 329.564 million oz
Dec 30.2014: we lost another 574,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory at 329.564 million oz/
Dec 29.2014 we had a small loss of 431,000 oz at the SLV to probably pay for fees/inventory 330.138 million oz.
Dec 26/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory 330.569
Dec 24.2014: we had a huge loss of 7.566 million oz/inventory 330.569 million oz
Dec 23.2014: no change in silver inventory/338.135 million oz
Jan 8/2015 / no change in silver inventory at the SLV to
registers: 328.457 million oz
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 9.1% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 8.7 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.8.%
( Jan 8/2015)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 1.11%!!!!! NAV (Jan 8/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to negative -0.52% to NAV(Jan 8/2015)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +1.11%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.52%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Thursday morning:
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)
Savage Murder In Paris Shows Freedom, Western Societies and Economies Vulnerable
The savage attacks on the satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, in Paris leaving 12 dead yesterday shows how vulnerable western societies and economies are to the twin threats of terrorism and war.
The attacks pose threats to our already under attack freedoms – freedom of the press, freedom of privacy, freedom of religion, freedom of conscience, freedom of speech, expression and thought.
It poses risks to the open societies that have been regained in recent years – in terms of freedom of movement of goods, services and people in the EU and internationally. This in itself poses real risks to already fragile economies in France, the EU and internationally.
The concern is that this may be the opening salvo in a new wave of conflict between NATO states and supra-national and radicalised Islamic groups across the Middle East.
Eyewitnesses say and photos and videos show the hooded attackers brandishing AK-47’s operated with the clinical coolness of professional assassins or battled hardened military men. Although they have not been captured at this point French authorities have identified them as French men, possibly of Algerian extraction and they are being linked to Al Queda in Yemen.
As the attack began, it is alleged that they shouted to bystanders, “Tell the media that this is al-Qaeda in the Yemen.” Other reports say that they said this to a female employee as she left the building with her child, as they entered the building.
For the five million Muslims living in France, over 7.7% of the population, and for Muslims across Europe it promises to be an uncomfortable few months as a wave of distrust, hatred and anger sweeps through the wider society and intelligence agencies, the far right and governments seek to exploit the attack for their own purposes.
The attacks have brought more attention than could possibly have been expected on the book “Submission” by Michel Houellebecq which was featured on the cover of yesterday’s Charlie Hebdo magazine and the apparent motivation for the violence.
The book is reminiscent of the horrible 1930’s anti-Semitic propaganda or the alarmist Cold War slogans such as “The Russians are coming.” It fear mongers and portrays a France in 2022 which has become an Islamic theocracy when a fringe Islamic party seizes control of the state through the democratic process in similar fashion to the Nazi party in 1933.
It is silly and will never happen but worse, it is prejudiced, Islamophobic and anti-Muslim and designed to create fear of Muslims – the majority of whom are normal, peace loving human beings.
It is particularly tragic that France should have been targeted by terrorists given that they voted in favour of Palestine taking a seat at the International Criminal Court only in December.
France has been an ambiguous NATO member in recent years. They are in the process of finishing the production of two battleships which were ordered by Russia before the Ukraine crisis began.
There is a risk of refraining to the simplistic and dangerous narrative of the fabled “Clash of Civilisations” that arms companies, militarists and terrorists globally are intent on provoking.
We must break the vicious loop – militarists use terrorism to justify war and terrorists use war to justify terrorism. We are slow learners that violence does not work and only breeds more violence.
Some would use terrorism to close borders, others to promote war and a further erosion of our civil liberties and civil rights. Instead, we should seek to address the root causes of terrorism which is poverty and injustice.
Nearly four years of war in Syria has created a staggering humanitarian crisis, with a huge one-third of the country’s original 23 million inhabitants displaced and more than three million of those registered as refugees in other countries.
“It is like the seven plagues of the Bible falling on these poor people,” Jan Egeland, the secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said yesterday.
Perpetual war in the Middle East and North Africa will lead to even more suffering in the region. Potential war with Russia does not bear thinking about.
The consequences of war are innocent victims, poverty and injustice. This is a breeding ground for the terrorists of today and tomorrow.
Unless as a race we change direction and there are always alternatives – the prospect for greater instability in the form of terrorism and war in the near future is very high.
Get Breaking Gold News and Updates Here
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,206.50, EUR 1,025.06 and GBP 800.97 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,213.75, EUR 1,023.83 and GBP 802.37 per ounce.
Spot gold fell $6.60 or 0.54% to $1,212.30 per ounce yesterday and silver rose $0.01 or 0.06% to $16.54 per ounce.
Further weakness in the euro today has lifted gold priced in the single currency by 0.2 percent to over 1,025 euros an ounce. Gold in euros is has risen risen 4.4% this year after the 11% gain in 2014 as gold seeks to price in the twin risks of Grexit and or Draghi’s money printing ‘bazooka’.
Euro-denominated gold has consolidated after breaking above EUR 1,000/oz for the first time since last March on Monday, to reach a 15-1/2 month high at EUR 1,029.81/oz yesterday.
Gold in pounds has been an even stronger performer since the start of the year and has risen from GBP 760 to over GBP 800 per ounce today or 5.2%, compared to a 1.9% rise in dollar terms.
Gold has fallen two days in a row as global equities rebounded and as traders took profits after gains in recent days.
Tomorrow’s closely watched U.S. non farm payrolls report, a key barometer of the U.S. economy, is estimated to show an increase of 240,000 and the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7 percent.
World stocks rose as signs of sluggish global economies increase speculation that central banks will support stimulus efforts.
Silver slipped by 0.7 percent at $16.35 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.1 percent at $1,215.10 an ounce and palladium was down 0.3 percent at $785.72 an ounce
A very important discussion with John Embry and Eric King.
John states correctly that the strength in the USA dollar is not due to strength in the uSA economy but the unwinding of the various carry trades:
1. the huge 9 trillion dollar carry trade in which huge amounts of “carry” oil attaches onto the trade.
2. the yen carry trade whereby many are getting out of the short yen and assets purchased with it.
a must read….
(courtesy John Embry/Eric King/Kingworldnews/GATA)
Only fall of euro and yen make dollar look strong, Embry says
12:50p ET Wednesday, January 7, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The U.S. dollar looks strong lately only because the euro and yen have been declining sharply, Sprott Asset Management’s John Embry tells King World News today.
“The U.S. economy is nowhere near as strong as the government’s falsified macro-numbers and the extremely bogus jobs numbers would suggest,” Embry says. “In fact, numerous macro-numbers and anecdotal evidence suggest that the United States may be lapsing into recession, despite the massive doses of liquidity that have been injected into the system.”
An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
For our history buffs out there: we now have documentation as to why the Bank of England abandoned the gold standard in 1931. Simple reason enough: they ran out of gold metal/ and did not have enough metal to cover losses.
How the Bank of England abandoned the gold standard: The metal simply ran out
The metal ran out again in March 1968 and forced the closing of the London Gold Pool. Someday the metal will run out one more time.
* * *
By James Titcomb
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
The circumstances leading up to the Bank of England’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1931 have been detailed by letters between the bank and the government from the period, which were released today.
Amid the Great Depression, during which many countries around the world sufferered economic turmoil, investors in Paris and New York lost confidence in the pound.
At the time, sterling was pegged to bullion. This meant that the pound was worth a fixed amount compared to other currencies and gold itself. In order to ensure that sterling retained its value, the Bank of England was obligated to exchange gold for pounds at the specified rate.
However, as political turmoil engulfed the UK, the country’s first national government — a coalition between Labour and the Conservatives — presided over a budget crisis that triggered a run on the pound.
Minutes from the bank’s court in 1931, published today, detailed how foreign exchange reserves were being drained to such an extent that the gold standard had to be abandoned. …
… For the remainder of the report:
A terrific history on Turkey being an important gold centre throughout the ages.
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
One the most interesting gold markets around, but least talked about, is the Turkish gold market. The Turkish people have a strong tradition that goes back thousands of years to save in physical gold and it’s estimated 5,000 tonnes of gold are owned privately. Additionally, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) has implemented a model in 2011 that allows commercial banks to use physical gold for reserve requirements.
In contrast to what the above chart may suggest the CBRT bought zero grams of gold in the past years on the open market. All gold added to their balance sheet since 2011 is gold from commercial banks that are allowed to use gold for reserve requirements (RR) by the CBRT. The footnote on the World Gold Council’s sheet on global official gold holdings states:
Gold has been added to Turkey’s balance sheet as a result of a policy accepting gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks.
I started researching the Turkish gold market about a year ago. Though I haven’t figured this market out in detail, I decided to go ahead and publish what I learned thus far, as this is an important story; the Turks have monetized gold through a model that soon might be implemented in other countries.
On the 11th India International Gold Convention, September 12 – 14, 2014, many keynote speakers expanded on the possibilities of monetizing India’s 20,000 tonnes private gold hoard. Soon after the World Gold Council and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) released a report titled Why India Needs A Gold Policy, proposing India to develop its gold industry; launch a new gold exchange and monetize gold.
In this post we’ll skim the surface on the Turkish gold model, in a future post we can add more texture.
Next to articles available on the internet about this subject, I used the following sources for my analysis:
- The CBRT, that wrote me three official letters in response to my inquiries.
- Two employees from two different Turkish commercial banks. Both insisted not to disclose the name of their banks.
- An employee from the Dutch central bank (DNB), who explained me the structure between commercial banks and their central bank in general and how the Turkish model fits in. (I’m not a schooled banker.)
Brief History Of The Turkish Gold Market
Worth noting is that the first coins of precious metals are believed to have been minted in Lydia, in what is now part of modern day Turkey, around 650 BC. The Kingdom of Lydia was a province of the Achaemenid Persian Empire.
When the Romans entered the Lydian capital Sardis in 133 BC, the region became part of the Eastern Roman Empire, which was also referred to as the Byzantine Empire. Through the 5th century the Western Roman Empire fragmented and collapsed, the Byzantine Empire survived and became one of the most flourishing and resilient economies in the world. The empire’s capital Constantinople, modern day Istanbul, was a trading hub in a network that at various times extended across nearly all of Eurasia and North Africa. Located at the western end of the Silk Road it connected the Orient with Europe.
Coins were the basic form of money though credit did exist, according to archival documents that describe the Byzantine banking system. The Empire’s monetary system functioned for more than a thousand years, from 312 to 1453, because of its relative flexibility. The Byzantine economy was among the most advanced in the region (Europe, North Africa, Middle East).
Since the creation of the Byzantine monetary system by Constantine in 312, its pivot had been the golden Solidus (the Latin word for solid). This coin was a highly priced and stable means of storing and transferring value.
Constantinople fell in 1453 when it was invaded by the Ottoman Empire; in which the financial and political interests of the state dominated the economy. The Byzantine era came to an end, though gold and silver remained a common store of value among the population in the region.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was the first President who came in power (1923) of what now officially is called The Republic Of Turkey, founded in the aftermath of World War I. After World War II a period followed of state guided industrialization based on import substituting protectionism. In 1980 Turkey started to liberalize its economy. With regard to gold the most significant developments were:
- 1983, the ban on gold jewelry exports was lifted.
- 1993, the Turkish central bank’s monopoly on the import of gold was lifted.
- 1995, the Istanbul Gold Exchange was established – currently named Borsa Istanbul.
- 2002, the Istanbul Gold Refinery was launched.