Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1264.70 up $30.30 (comex closing time)
Silver: $17.07 up 11 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
Last night, I thought that the boys were going to keep gold and silver under wraps. During the early evening, it sure looked that way with gold trading around 1227 when the Swiss announced the unpegging of its currency to the USA dollar. Immediately gold shot up into the 1265 dollar level with silver trailing noticeably behind. Actually if you want to get a glimpse as to what gold will do just notice what happened to the Swiss Franc which rose 30% today, from 1.20 to the dollar to, at one point, .75 francs to the dollar and settled at .86 to the dollar( and the Euro/Swiss Franc at parity at 1.00.) Even as the world perceives the Swiss Franc as a safe haven you can just imagine what gold would do and rise even greater than 30% in one day as our ancient metal of kings is the ultimate safe haven ( and ultimate money)
The second big story of the day was the Russians stopping the shipment of gas through the Ukraine to six European countries stating that gas was being recycled back.
The Russians are now flexing their muscles knowing full well that China is behind them.
We will spend a lot of time on both of these big stories.
Gold/silver trading: see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.
Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 247.23 tonnes for a loss of 56 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest fell by 346 contracts with yesterday’s silver price being down by 17 cents. The total silver OI continues to remains relatively high with today’s reading at 156,936 contracts. However the bankers are still loathe to supply much of the non backed silver paper. The January silver OI contract fell by 126 contracts down to 126.
In gold we had a small increase in OI with the small rise in price of gold yesterday to the tune of $.10. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 403,082 for a gain of 974 contracts. The January gold contract remains constant at 87 contracts.
Today, we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ /Inventory 707.59 tonnes
In silver, we had a huge reduction in silver inventory at the SLV of 1.628 million oz
SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 326.351 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today
First: GOFO rates:
Most rates moved mostly in the negative direction/ All months are in contango and thus positive in rates.
Sometime in January the LBMA will officially stop providing the GOFO rates.
Jan 15 2015
+.105% +1075% +.1075% +.1175 .1475%
Jan 14 2014:
+.1075% +.1025% +.1075 % +.12% +.15%
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest rose today by 974 contracts from 402,108 all the way up to 403,082 with gold up by $0.10 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now onto the January contract month. The non active January contract month saw it’s OI contracts remain constant at 87 for a loss of 0 contracts. We had 0 contracts served yesterday. Thus we neither lost nor gained any gold contracts standing for delivery in this January contract month. The next big delivery month is February and here the OI fell by 5,549 contracts to 178,496 contracts with many moving to April. The estimated volume today was fair at 171,454. The confirmed volume yesterday was good at 229,831 contracts, even though the high frequency traders gave some help with respect to volume. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz .
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell by 346 contracts from 157,282 down to 156,936 with silver down by 17 cents yesterday. The front January contract month saw its OI fall to 126 contracts for a loss of 126 contracts. We had 130 notices filed yesterday, so we gained 4 silver contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will stand for silver in the January contract month. As I mentioned yesterday, somebody was in great need of physical silver and they robbed the cookie jar if very valuable silver. The next big contract month is March and here the OI fell by 1321 contracts down to 102,894. The estimated volume today was fair at 30,771. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 53,543. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. The rise in silver is certainly scaring our bankers into supplying more non backed paper. The OI in silver has seen a slow and steady rise for the past few weeks.
January initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||nil|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||nil|
|No of oz served (contracts) today||0 contracts(nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||87 contracts (8700 oz)|
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||8 contracts(800 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawal
total customer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 0 adjustments
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (8) x 100 oz or 800 oz to which we add the difference between the January OI (87) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz = 9500 oz , the amount of gold oz standing for the January contract month. (.2954 tonnes of gold)
Thus the initial standings:
8 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) +OI for January (87) – 0(no. of notices served upon today) 9500 oz (.2954 tonnes).
We neither lost nor gained any gold ounces standing for delivery today.
Total dealer inventory: 770,487.09 oz or 23.96 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.948 million oz. (247.23) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 56 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!
This initializes the month of January for gold.
And now for silver
Jan 15 2015:
January silver: initial standings
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||512,555.21 oz (CNT,SCOTIA,) oz|
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||498,115.800 oz (Scotia)|
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||122 contracts (610,,000 oz)|
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||234 contracts (1,170,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||5,124,500.1 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Scotia: 498,115.800 oz (one decimal)
total customer deposit 498,115.800 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT: 387,154.56 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 125,400.65 oz
total customer withdrawal: 512,555.21 oz
we had 0 adjustments
Total dealer inventory: 65.694 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 173.914 million oz.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (234) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of January (126) – the Number of notices served upon today (0) x 5,000 oz = 1,780,000 oz the number of ounces standing so far for the January delivery month.
Initial standings for silver for the January contract month:
234 contracts x 5000 oz= 1,170,000 oz +OI standing so far in January (126)- no. of notices served upon today(0) x 5,000 oz = 1,800,000 oz
we gained 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will stand for the January contract month.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
Jan 15/ no change in inventory at the GLD today/inventory 707.59 tonnes
Jan 14.2015 we had a small withdrawal of .23 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory 707.59 tonnes
Jan 13.2015 no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory tonight at 707.82 tonnes
Jan 12 no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory tonight at 707.82 tonnes
January 9.2015: an addition of 2.99 tonnes of gold/Inventory 707.82 tonnes
Jan 8.2015: no change/inventory 704.83 tonnes
Jan 7.2015: we lost another exact 2.99 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 704.83 tonnes
Jan 6.2015: we lost 2.99 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD//inventory 707.82 tonnes
Today, Jan 15/2015 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD ) /Inventory rests tonight at 707.59 tonnes
inventory: 707.59 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 707.59 tonnes.
And now for silver (SLV):
Jan 15.2015 we had a huge withdrawal of 1.628 million oz/Inventory 327.351 million oz
Jan 15.2015: no change in silver inventory/327.979 million oz
Jan 13.2015 no change in silver inventory/327.979 million oz/
Jan 12.2015 we had a huge withdrawal of 1.915 million at the SLV/inventory at 327.979 million oz.
Jan 9.2015: we had a huge addition of 1.437 million oz at the SLV/Inventory 329.894 million oz
Jan 8.2015: no change in silver inventory/inventory at 328.457 million oz.
Jan 7.2015: we had another loss of 958,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory 328.457 million oz
jAN 6.2015: we had a small loss of 149,000 oz/inventory 329.415 million oz
Jan 15/2015 / a huge withdrawal of 1.628 million oz of silver from the SLV/ inventory at the SLV
registers: 326.351 million oz
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 9.5% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 9.2 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.0%
( Jan 15/2015)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 1.35%!!!!! NAV (Jan 15/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to negative -0.60% to NAV(Jan 15/2015)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +1.35%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.60%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:
Early gold trading from Europe early Thursday morning:
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)
Market Chaos as Swiss Franc Surges 30% In 13 Minutes, Gold Rises Sharply
Chaos was seen in financial markets today as participants were thrown a curveball when Switzerland surprised the world by removing its three-year cap on the Swiss franc, unpegging it from the euro. This sent the undervalued currency soaring and Europe’s shares and bond yields tumbling.
In just 13 minutes, from 0930 to 0952 BST, the franc collapsed by 30%. Swiss shares fell more than 12% – their largest crash since 1987. Stock markets around Europe fell with investors buying “safe haven” assets such as German bunds and gold bullion.
Gold rose in all major currencies and approached a three-month high following Switzerland’s unexpected decision to decouple its currency from the euro.
In a chaotic few minutes on markets after the SNB’s announcement, the Swiss franc jumped to a record high against the euro, rocketed nearly 30 percent in a few minutes. The franc broke past parity against the euro to trade at 0.8052 francs per euro before trimming those gains to stand at 88.00 francs – it removed the 1.20 per euro cap it has had in place since late 2011. It also gained 25 percent against the dollar to trade at 74 francs per dollar.
The SNB ended a three-year-old policy designed to shield the economy from the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis, prevent the Swiss franc appreciating and pricing Swiss exports out of markets. The central bank lowered the interest rate on sight deposit account balances that exceed a given exemption threshold to minus 0.75 percent from minus 0.25 percent, it said in a statement today.
This is likely a coordinated move by the SNB in conjunction with the ECB in anticipation of a move against the flood of money that will likely materialise with the ECB in Frankfurt looking likely to start quantitative easing.
Gold climbed on the news and bullion for immediate delivery increased 2.3 percent to $1,257.01 near a 12 week high, as the dollar weakened. Gold is higher for a fifth day, the longest streak since June.
The move by the SNB is a dramatic one and smells of an emergency measure. Ultra loose monetary policies are here to stay and the SNB actions suggest loose money policies will intensify in the coming months.
The revaluation of the Swiss franc versus the dollar, pound and euro is a harbinger of what will happen to those same fiat currencies versus gold in the coming months and years. The Swiss franc is one of the safest fiat currencies in the world but gold remains the ultimate safe haven asset and form of money as has been seen throughout history and in recent years.
OUTLOOK 2015 – Uncertainty, Volatility, Possible Reset – DIVERSIFY
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,235.25, EUR 1,055.41 and GBP 811.76 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,228.75, EUR 1,044.99 and GBP 808.76 per ounce.
My goodness: a huge 61 tonnes of gold demanded by Chinese citizens.
Also please remember that this is not sovereign China, who purchases gold separately from the Shanghai Gold Exchange with their unwanted USA dollars. The SGE purchases gold/scrap etc with yuan.
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Posted on 15 Jan 2015 by Koos Jansen
As I mentioned last week, January is the time of the year for the Chinese to buy golden gifts for their love ones. And that is exactly what they are currently doing en masse, according to the latest data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).
An astonishing 61 tonnes have been withdrawn from the vaults in SGE trading week 1 (January 5 -9), the strongest week since early October 2014. SGEI volume was very little at 3.5 tonnes; meaning withdrawals from vaults in the mainland must have been at least 58 tonnes. (Read this post for a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between SGEI trading volume and withdrawals.)